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151
an innovative RTA to meet the unique needs of these states. It seems reasonable to
conclude that the demand for RTAs was met by the existing supply, which permits
assignment of the entire effect of former Soviet republics as a determinant of demand
for RTAs. This statement does not contradict the earlier analysis that rejected the
collapse of the Soviet Union as the cause of the proliferation of RTAs. This finding
does, however, offer empirical support of the role of the collapse in contributing to
the diffusion process. In light of the political reality facing the new states, the
relative advantage of an RTA likely overwhelmed any perceived disadvantages and
was quickly adopted.
Replacement of the categorical variable Income with two time-dependent
covariates infuses more variation in the data and distinguishes two effects. Inclusion
of GDP indicates absolute economic size whereas inclusion of CGDP reflects the
relative wealth of a state.41 Variables reflecting growth in national income and
growth in per capita income for the period 1982-2006 are collected from the World
Bank World Development Indicators data set. A third time-dependent covariate,
Free is included in the model to isolate any effect from variation of freedom afforded
citizens in each state. Free is a composite variable that measures political freedom
and civil liberties, which may influence the transmission of demand for additional
liberalization to policymakers or, as reported by Fawcett (1995) mitigate preference
for liberal economic policy.
41 No adjustments for the unequal distribution of income are imposed although we are quite aware that
per capita income reflects an average that likely does not approximate the typical income in any state.
Object Description
| Title | Riding the wave: an interdisciplinary approach to understanding the popularity of RTA notifications to the GATT/WTO |
| Author | McClough, David Andrew |
| Author email | mcclough@usc.edu; dmcclou@bgsu.edu |
| Degree | Doctor of Philosophy |
| Document type | Dissertation |
| Degree program | Political Economy & Public Policy |
| School | College of Letters, Arts and Sciences |
| Date defended/completed | 2008-08-07 |
| Date submitted | 2008 |
| Restricted until | Unrestricted |
| Date published | 2008-10-18 |
| Advisor (committee chair) | Katada, Saori N. |
| Advisor (committee member) |
Nugent, Jeffrey B. Cartier, Carolyn |
| Abstract | The proliferation of Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs) notified to the GATT/WTO since the early 1980s deviates from the long-term trend and reflects participation of nearly every member of the United Nations. This dissertation seeks to explain the current wave of RTA notifications by supplementing the economic model of supply and demand with diffusion theory. Application of the supply and demand model is useful in distinguishing between changes in demand and changes insupply of RTAs. This distinction is seldom emphasized in the current literature examining RTAs. Recent applications of diffusion theory in the discipline of international relations offer a unique opportunity to include a dynamic force in the static analysis of the supply and demand model. Empirical analysis assesses the fit of the RTA diffusion pattern by comparing the RTA diffusion pattern to a cumulative standard normal distribution. The analysis indicates that the diffusion pattern of RTAs resembles the diffusion of an innovation through a social system.; The implication of this finding is that the adoption of an RTA as trade policy is not made independently of the decision by other states. Indeed, the analysis suggests interdependency between states. Further empirical analysis explores economic and political variables that may explain the decision to adopt the RTA as trade policy. The empirical analysis is unique in that survival analysis is utilized to assess the variation in duration to adopt an initial RTA since the early 1980s. A central discovery is that regional designation explains the variation in duration to adopt an initial RTA. Multiple regression analysis confirms the results generated using survival analysis and support the assertion that the proliferation of RTAs likely reflects changes in both the demand for RTAs and the supply of RTAs. This dissertation concludes by considering implications for the WTO resulting from the increase in RTA notifications. |
| Keyword | trade agreements |
| Coverage date | after 1980 |
| Language | English |
| Part of collection | University of Southern California dissertations and theses |
| Publisher (of the original version) | University of Southern California |
| Place of publication (of the original version) | Los Angeles, California |
| Publisher (of the digital version) | University of Southern California. Libraries |
| Provenance | Electronically uploaded by the author |
| Type | texts |
| Legacy record ID | usctheses-m1675 |
| Contributing entity | University of Southern California |
| Rights | McClough, David Andrew |
| Repository name | Libraries, University of Southern California |
| Repository address | Los Angeles, California |
| Repository email | cisadmin@lib.usc.edu |
| Filename | etd-McClough-2338 |
| Archival file | uscthesesreloadpub_Volume32/etd-McClough-2338.pdf |
Description
| Title | Page 160 |
| Contributing entity | University of Southern California |
| Repository email | cisadmin@lib.usc.edu |
| Full text | 151 an innovative RTA to meet the unique needs of these states. It seems reasonable to conclude that the demand for RTAs was met by the existing supply, which permits assignment of the entire effect of former Soviet republics as a determinant of demand for RTAs. This statement does not contradict the earlier analysis that rejected the collapse of the Soviet Union as the cause of the proliferation of RTAs. This finding does, however, offer empirical support of the role of the collapse in contributing to the diffusion process. In light of the political reality facing the new states, the relative advantage of an RTA likely overwhelmed any perceived disadvantages and was quickly adopted. Replacement of the categorical variable Income with two time-dependent covariates infuses more variation in the data and distinguishes two effects. Inclusion of GDP indicates absolute economic size whereas inclusion of CGDP reflects the relative wealth of a state.41 Variables reflecting growth in national income and growth in per capita income for the period 1982-2006 are collected from the World Bank World Development Indicators data set. A third time-dependent covariate, Free is included in the model to isolate any effect from variation of freedom afforded citizens in each state. Free is a composite variable that measures political freedom and civil liberties, which may influence the transmission of demand for additional liberalization to policymakers or, as reported by Fawcett (1995) mitigate preference for liberal economic policy. 41 No adjustments for the unequal distribution of income are imposed although we are quite aware that per capita income reflects an average that likely does not approximate the typical income in any state. |
