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73
is correct that the US-Mexico negotiations represented a greater disruption of the
status quo in the Americas than the US-Canada FTA, however, it is reasonable to
think that the US would have been uninterested in regional agreements had a
multilateral round of negotiations been initiated during the Geneva Ministerial
meeting. US availability to bilateralism is a necessary condition for Mexican
overtures favoring integration to advance. Mexican interest in a bilateral agreement
with the US may have been intended to “lock-in” liberal reforms but there was no
incentive for the US to respond favorably. In the absence of a reversal of the US
position on bilateralism, there is likely no US-Mexico negotiation. Moreover, the
US policy reversal is directly linked to European integration and is not essentially
independent as asserted by Frankel (1997) or idiosyncratic as proposed by Baldwin
(1995). Accordingly, it is reasonable to move beyond Baldwin (1995) and Frankel
(1997) to declare that the event prompting the domino effect is the European
rejection of the US request to establish a new GATT Round during the Geneva
Ministerial meeting in November 1982. A more systematic analysis of the domino
effect may be available through application of diffusion models, which offer insight
regarding how the adoption of the RTA as trade policy proceeds from the instigate
event.
Diffusion Models
Analysts of international relations examine the adoption of liberal economic
and political ideas in a theoretical framework that emphasizes the interdependency of
Object Description
| Title | Riding the wave: an interdisciplinary approach to understanding the popularity of RTA notifications to the GATT/WTO |
| Author | McClough, David Andrew |
| Author email | mcclough@usc.edu; dmcclou@bgsu.edu |
| Degree | Doctor of Philosophy |
| Document type | Dissertation |
| Degree program | Political Economy & Public Policy |
| School | College of Letters, Arts and Sciences |
| Date defended/completed | 2008-08-07 |
| Date submitted | 2008 |
| Restricted until | Unrestricted |
| Date published | 2008-10-18 |
| Advisor (committee chair) | Katada, Saori N. |
| Advisor (committee member) |
Nugent, Jeffrey B. Cartier, Carolyn |
| Abstract | The proliferation of Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs) notified to the GATT/WTO since the early 1980s deviates from the long-term trend and reflects participation of nearly every member of the United Nations. This dissertation seeks to explain the current wave of RTA notifications by supplementing the economic model of supply and demand with diffusion theory. Application of the supply and demand model is useful in distinguishing between changes in demand and changes insupply of RTAs. This distinction is seldom emphasized in the current literature examining RTAs. Recent applications of diffusion theory in the discipline of international relations offer a unique opportunity to include a dynamic force in the static analysis of the supply and demand model. Empirical analysis assesses the fit of the RTA diffusion pattern by comparing the RTA diffusion pattern to a cumulative standard normal distribution. The analysis indicates that the diffusion pattern of RTAs resembles the diffusion of an innovation through a social system.; The implication of this finding is that the adoption of an RTA as trade policy is not made independently of the decision by other states. Indeed, the analysis suggests interdependency between states. Further empirical analysis explores economic and political variables that may explain the decision to adopt the RTA as trade policy. The empirical analysis is unique in that survival analysis is utilized to assess the variation in duration to adopt an initial RTA since the early 1980s. A central discovery is that regional designation explains the variation in duration to adopt an initial RTA. Multiple regression analysis confirms the results generated using survival analysis and support the assertion that the proliferation of RTAs likely reflects changes in both the demand for RTAs and the supply of RTAs. This dissertation concludes by considering implications for the WTO resulting from the increase in RTA notifications. |
| Keyword | trade agreements |
| Coverage date | after 1980 |
| Language | English |
| Part of collection | University of Southern California dissertations and theses |
| Publisher (of the original version) | University of Southern California |
| Place of publication (of the original version) | Los Angeles, California |
| Publisher (of the digital version) | University of Southern California. Libraries |
| Provenance | Electronically uploaded by the author |
| Type | texts |
| Legacy record ID | usctheses-m1675 |
| Contributing entity | University of Southern California |
| Rights | McClough, David Andrew |
| Repository name | Libraries, University of Southern California |
| Repository address | Los Angeles, California |
| Repository email | cisadmin@lib.usc.edu |
| Filename | etd-McClough-2338 |
| Archival file | uscthesesreloadpub_Volume32/etd-McClough-2338.pdf |
Description
| Title | Page 82 |
| Contributing entity | University of Southern California |
| Repository email | cisadmin@lib.usc.edu |
| Full text | 73 is correct that the US-Mexico negotiations represented a greater disruption of the status quo in the Americas than the US-Canada FTA, however, it is reasonable to think that the US would have been uninterested in regional agreements had a multilateral round of negotiations been initiated during the Geneva Ministerial meeting. US availability to bilateralism is a necessary condition for Mexican overtures favoring integration to advance. Mexican interest in a bilateral agreement with the US may have been intended to “lock-in” liberal reforms but there was no incentive for the US to respond favorably. In the absence of a reversal of the US position on bilateralism, there is likely no US-Mexico negotiation. Moreover, the US policy reversal is directly linked to European integration and is not essentially independent as asserted by Frankel (1997) or idiosyncratic as proposed by Baldwin (1995). Accordingly, it is reasonable to move beyond Baldwin (1995) and Frankel (1997) to declare that the event prompting the domino effect is the European rejection of the US request to establish a new GATT Round during the Geneva Ministerial meeting in November 1982. A more systematic analysis of the domino effect may be available through application of diffusion models, which offer insight regarding how the adoption of the RTA as trade policy proceeds from the instigate event. Diffusion Models Analysts of international relations examine the adoption of liberal economic and political ideas in a theoretical framework that emphasizes the interdependency of |
