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Threat assessment of physical attacks of electrical infrastructure: how do terrorist groups select their targets?

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Threat assessment of physical attacks of electrical infrastructure: how do terrorist groups select their targets?

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Content THREAT ASSESSMENT OF PHYSICAL ATTACKS OF ELECTRIC INFRASTRUCTURE: HOW DO TERRORIST GROUPS SELECT THEIR TARGETS? b Jae D. Mada A Dea Peeed e FACULTY OF THE USC SOL PRICE SCHOOL OF PUBLIC POLICY UNIVERSITY OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA I Paa Ffe f e Reee f e Degee DOCTOR OF POLICY, PLANNING AND DEVELOPMENT Decebe 2020 Cg 2020 Jae D. Mada Dedicaion I dedcae e, Ma Naada, a baed g cace ad a fe caege e ad aff cce. M a ade e acfce ge e da a I ca ee ee. O e da I eed aece ad eece, I da e eg ad eae. Acknoledgemen Te f a dca degee, ecfca e cea f e acadec dea, ca be deae ae. Te e ee e aed f a cag ad gf fed ad ae. We be acedge ee dda, cbed e cce, ee ae a ed ee a eed ca e e f e. F, ag ceeeade a fa. M cde, Je, Seae, Nc, Gabb, ad Je gae e eed . Te ee aa eeed ad g egage dc. M beed ae, Agea, e a e fe dg edea. He e ad aece g e g g e. W Agea ad cde, I cd ae eeeed, a I dd. I d e eed a eca a Pfe Deba Na. He ca ecagee ad gf feedbac ed e f e ceae aec f . I d e acedge dca cee dedca ad Pfe Def Wefed, Ted Le, ad Dad Baa. Pfe Le ded ce ad cca feedbac, ee da. He a e ee e f e a. Pfe Baa eed a e g e ecage e ad ge e e e f e. Pfe Wefed eed a acadec ad ad cee ca afe eag c 2016; e beeed eeac. Ta e fac ad aff a e Ue f Se Cafa aed a a dca adee. Fa, I acedge e ac f ced affa e U.S. Naa Pgadae Sc ad e fac a e Cee f Head Defee ad Sec. Te Cee ce e afe a decade f caba. TABLE OF CONTENTS Dedca ....................................................................................................................................... Acedgee ........................................................................................................................ L f Tabe ................................................................................................................................ L f Fge .............................................................................................................................. Abac .......................................................................................................................................... Peface............................................................................................................................................. Cae 1: Idc ................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Idc Saee ................................................................................... 1 1.2 Geea Saee .......................................................................................... 3 1.2.1 Iac f Pe Gd Fae ...................................................... 4 1.3 Pe f e Sd ....................................................................................... 5 1.4 Sgfcace f e Sd ................................................................................ 6 1.5 Reeac Pbe ........................................................................................... 8 1.5.1 R Fa R= (T,V,C) .............................................................. 9 1.5.2 Saca Caege ...................................................................... 12 1.5.3 Fda f Tea Aa ...................................................... 14 1.5.4 Fe Dec Aac .................................................................... 15 1.5.5 N Eabed Mde f Tea .................................................... 16 1.5.6 H Sd See Adde e Pbe ............................... 17 1.6 Reeac Qe ad Aac ............................................................... 17 1.6.1 Reeac Aac ......................................................................... 19 1.6.2 Daa Cec ................................................................................ 19 1.6.3 Ideede Vaabe ..................................................................... 20 1.6.4 Deede Vaabe ....................................................................... 21 1.6.5 Saca Aac ........................................................................ 21 1.7 Te Saee ........................................................................................... 22 1.7.1 G Ideg ............................................................................... 22 1.7.2 G Age ....................................................................................... 24 1.7.3 G Se ....................................................................................... 24 1.7.4 G Pe Eecc Iface Aac ..................... 25 1.7.5 Oeaa Rece ..................................................................... 25 1.8 Teeca Fae ................................................................................ 26 1.9 A ad La ....................................................................... 26 1.10 Sa f e Dea ........................................................................ 27 Cae 2: Leae Ree ........................................................................................................ 29 2.1 Idc .................................................................................................. 29 2.2 E f Te G Maa Te ...................................... 32 2.2.1 Ea Dec Mde .................................................................... 34 2.2.2 21 Ce Dec Fae ................................................. 37 2.3 Se f Dec Ifece .................................................................. 51 2.3.1 Pcgca Ifece ................................................................. 52 2.3.2 Scgca Ifece ................................................................... 56 2.3.3 Iea Ifece ................................................................... 60 2.3.4 Idegca Ifece ..................................................................... 63 2.3.5 Ogaaa Ifece ............................................................... 64 2.3.6 Eea Ifece .......................................................................... 67 2.3.7 Pecea Ifece ...................................................................... 69 2.4 Sa ....................................................................................................... 69 Cae 3: Medg ............................................................................................................... 72 3.1 Idc .................................................................................................. 72 3.2 Reeac Qe ...................................................................................... 74 3.3 Daa Cec ............................................................................................. 74 3.4 Pea Medg ............................................................................. 77 3.4.1 Beded Mea-Aa f e Leae ........................................ 78 3.5 Idefca f Te G Caacec & Daa Cdg ................ 83 3.5.1 Cdg f Ideg ........................................................................ 85 3.5.2 Cdg f G Se .................................................................... 97 3.5.3 Cdg f G Age ..................................................................... 98 3.5.4 Cdg f Pe Aac Eecc Iface .................. 99 3.5.5 Cdg f Oeaa Caabe/Rece ............................ 100 3.6 Pa Medg - Qaae Aa ........................................... 102 3.6.1 Sae Seec ad Saca Aa b Dec Fac ..... 103 3.6.2 Aa f Daa Oe Te .......................................................... 104 3.6.3 He Teg ........................................................................ 104 3.6.4 Pbabc Aa .................................................................... 105 3.7 Sa/Reeac Mde ......................................................................... 108 3.7.1 Reeac Mde ............................................................................. 108 Cae 4: Aa ad Re ................................................................................................. 110 4.1 Idc ................................................................................................ 110 4.2 Feec f Pe Aac f Eecc Iface .......................... 111 4.3 Tage Seec Ifece ........................................................................ 116 4.4 Feec f Aac Rea Dec Fac ............................... 118 4.4.1 Ideg ......................................................................................... 118 4.4.2 G Age ..................................................................................... 126 4.4.3 G Se ..................................................................................... 131 4.4.4 Pe Aac Eecc Iface................................... 136 4.4.5 G Oeaa Caabe ad Rece ............................ 139 4.5 He Teg ad Saca Sgfcace ......................................... 145 4.6 Baea Aa Pbabc T ...................................................... 151 4.6.1 Aa Sa ...................................................................... 154 4.7 Sa ..................................................................................................... 156 Cae 5: Dc ................................................................................................................. 159 5.1 Idc ................................................................................................ 159 5.2 Dc f Reeac Qe .............................................................. 159 5.3 Ieea ad Dc f Saca Fdg ................................. 162 5.3.1 Idegca Ted Aa ........................................................... 166 5.3.2 Saed caacec .................................................................... 167 5.4 La ad Receda f Fe Reeac ........................... 169 5.4.1 La f Ug Gba Aac Daa ..................................... 170 5.4.2 Aa f Te G a a P f Sb-Sae Ac ..... 171 5.4.3 Te O f Cbe-Aac .................................................... 171 5.4.4 Decg f Tea f Ceece .................................... 171 5.4.5 Need f Adda Cdg f START-GTD Daa ...................... 172 5.5 Ica f Pacce ............................................................................. 173 5.6 Ica f Te ad Fe Reeac ............................................ 173 5.7 Cc .................................................................................................. 174 Refeece ................................................................................................................................... 175 Li of Table Tabe 1. L f Dec Fac f e Leae .................................................................. 70 Tabe 2. Dec Fac Scg Ma ...................................................................................... 82 Tabe 3. Reg Te G (Ia/Jad) .................................................................. 89 Tabe 4. E-Naa Te G ................................................................................ 92 Tabe 5. Cba E-Naa/Iac Te G ............................................. 94 Tabe 6. Lef-Wg Te G ............................................................................................ 95 Tabe 7. Rg-Wg Te G.......................................................................................... 96 Tabe 8. Eea/Sge-Ie Te G ................................................................ 97 Tabe 9. G Se Cdg Caege ....................................................................................... 98 Tabe 10. G Age Cdg Caege ...................................................................................... 99 Tabe 11. Te Aac 2000-2018 ....................................................................................... 113 Tabe 12. Scg Ma ............................................................................................................ 117 Tabe 13. Dec Fac Hge Sce ........................................................................ 117 Tabe 14. Aac f Eecc Iface Ged b Ideg ............................................ 119 Tabe 15. Aa Aac f Eecc Iface Ged b Ideg ................................ 122 Tabe 16. Aac f Eecc Iface b G Age ........................................................ 128 Tabe 17. Aa Aac f Eecc Iface Led b G Age ................................ 129 Tabe 18. Aa Aac f Eecc Iface Aaged b G Se ........................... 134 Tabe 19. Te G >3,000 Mebe ............................................................................. 135 Tabe 20. Aa Aac f EI Aaged b e Nbe f Pe Aac b G ........ 138 Tabe 21. Aa Aac f Eecc Iface Aaged b G Rece ................. 145 Tabe 22. H1 E-Naa . Reg -Te ............................................................... 146 Tabe 23. H1 E-Naa . Lef-Wg -Te ............................................................. 147 Tabe 24. H1 Hbd . Reg -Te ................................................................................ 148 Tabe 25. H2 >5 Yea . <=5 Yea -Te ........................................................................... 148 Tabe 26. H3 >3,000 . 1-3,000 -Te ................................................................................... 149 Tabe 27. H4 2+ Pe . <2 Pe Aac -Te ....................................................... 150 Tabe 28. H5 Hg . L Rece -Te .......................................................................... 151 Tabe 29. H5 Hg . Med Rece -Te .................................................................... 151 Tabe 30. Cda Pbab Eae .............................................................................. 154 Li of Fige Fge 1. Reeac Mde F Ca ..................................................................................... 109 Fge 2. Te Aac Eeg/Eecc Iface 2000-2018 .................................. 112 Fge 3. Te Aac (A Tage) 2000-2018 .................................................................. 114 Fge 4. Te Aac Ted Le (A Tage) 2000-2018 ................................................ 115 Fge 5. Te Aac Eeg/Eecc Iface 2000-2018 .................................. 115 Fge 6. Te G Ideg Raded G #1 & #2 - Ca ................... 119 Fge 7. Saca Db b Ideg ............................................................................. 120 Fge 8. Cdaed Saca Db b Ideg (/bd)..................................... 120 Fge 9. E-Naa . Lef-Wg ................................................................................. 123 Fge 10. E-Naa . Reg ................................................................................. 123 Fge 11. E-Naa + Cb G ( Hbid Caego ) . Reg ..................... 124 Fge 12. Te G Age .................................................................................................. 127 Fge 13. Te G Age Ta K Daae ............................................................... 128 Fge 14. G Age ................................................................................................................. 130 Fge 15. Te G Se Aae Nbe f Mebe ......................................... 132 Fge 16. Te G Se Ta K Daae ............................................................... 133 Fge 17. Te G Se - 3 Caeg K Aac Sbe ......................................... 133 Fge 18. G Se ................................................................................................................. 135 Fge 19. Pe Aac Eecc Iface Raded G #1 ad #2 ......... 136 Fge 20. Pe Aac Eecc Iface Ta Daae ........................................ 137 Fge 21. Pe Aac f Eecc Iface ............................................................... 139 Fge 22. Te G Rece Ta (Rad G #1) ............................................ 140 Fge 23. Te G Rece Ta (Rad G #2) ............................................ 141 Fge 24. Te G Rece Sac (Rad G #1)........................................ 141 Fge 25. Te G Rece Sac (Rad G #2)........................................ 142 Fge 26. G Oeaa Rece Ta K Daae ................................................ 142 Fge 27. G Oeaa Rece Ta K Sbe .................................................. 143 Fge 28. Oeaa Rece ............................................................................................... 144 Fge 29. Baea Cda Pbab Tea Mde Aa Lee 1-3 ................... 155 Fge 30. Baea Cda Pbab Tea Mde Aa Lee 4-5 ................... 155 Abac Tee aea be age f gee ad acadec e aeg e e ea f e aac f Aeca eecc e gd. T a a bece a ece ee, ag a f e eecc d ce ega. Sc aac cd e a eee f Aeca ea ad e-beg ad eac a ecc e b f da. Hee, ee fea ae a baed aecda daa e g eca edece. T eeac eae e ed a b-ae ac eec eecc face a a egae age f aac. T d eeed ee a age: (1) Te eeac eabe a e f gaaa ad eea dec fac a ae beeed fece age eec; (2) eae e aca feec f e eecc face aac ad e ea ee fac; ad (3) dee a de eae e cda bab f fe aac. Te ec fced e ea f ca aac e ce f a geea dc f , c defed a a cba f ea, eab, ad ceeceR= (T,V,C). Te daa ee ceced f e Ue f Maad Naa C f e Sd f Te ad Ree Te (START), Gba Te Daabae. Te eeac cded 121,628 e aac f 2000 g 2018, 1,198 eecc face aac, ad 521 ecfc aac cdced b 71 dffee e g 38 ce. Te d ee eea fdg f cae, gee ad d ega, acadec ad eeac , egece aa, ad e aede. Ked: Teoi Aack, eoim, elecic inface, oe gid, hea, lneabili, coneence, ik. Peface Rece, 31-ea-d , Nc, ed e eg e a caed ae f e 20 ea. I a a d be cad f a efcee caee. Te ea ef faded ad aeed. He fed e eea a ade eageO b a ef- a f e e dd . Aga a. I e a eage e e a a 10-ea-d, ad e cae da. T I ae deed fe e ec f e c, f a a ce ffce, ad deag eegece ad ea e eecc d. T a I a a USC g a dca degee a ae age f fe. I aa a a f cde. M eage e effece ccaed g eae e e f a be caee ad f ge edca. T e ed e bee dead e ace f e eecc e gd. Te gd fdaea a a de e. Ma ee agee a a bad degaded e gd d e eee ad ad ee f fe. Ag ee a bee e edce e gd eab ad gae e ceece f fae, e e f e ee a ee aac ae e ded. M a aac eeac a aed b cea a e gd be eced ad a ee ee e a eeded ae. Te e ae a e ea f eeac. We ee e e be de, I e a I ae ade a a cb a e ee gd ad a afe d. 1 Chape 1: Inodcion 1.1 Inodcion Saemen O A 16, 2013, e Pacfc Ga ad Eecc (PG&E) Mecaf Ta Sba ea Sa Je, Cafa, a aaced b a g f aed aaa. Ug a ae ae ed be aa fe, e aace eee daaged e 500- (V) afe, ee 230V afe, ad 115V cc beae. Te aac c PG&E $26 ea ad eea cea- eff ad ea baced- a f e Sc Vae. Ee ae debaed e a f e aac ce e aace ae ee bee defed. Tee a bee deea a ee e aac a a e ea, de ac, eg ee (Deae f Head Sec & Deae f Eeg, 2014; Ccae, 2014; Pafa, 2014; S, 2014; Page, 2015). Te Mecaf aac eed e eab f a eecc face ad eged gadg fea a e ad e ac g aac e e gd. Te acaed a age-cae ca aac f e e gd a bece a c ee gee e, d a, ad acadec ace. Tee e ae feced c f e eecc d ce ega. A ca aac f c eecc e gd e a ea caac e ea ad e- beg f f Aeca ad cd eac a ecc e b f da (Deae f Eeg, 2017; Sa & Kae, 2017). Te Cee f e Sd f e Pedec ad Cge 2014 e, Secing he U.S. Elecical Gid , caed e a e gd a b age a age f ac d ee e a e U.S. ead (. 4). Te Naa Eeg Tecg Laba (2007) e, Te ea f b ca ad cbe-aac gg ad a deead aac aga e face 2 ca be ed (. A3-16). Te Naa Reeac Cc (2012) ed a Te cd de e eee f e eecc geea ad dee e, cag bac a ae ecedeed c da ad ee (. 7). Te Mecaf aac, ag eea ae ad e e- dec aac, caed e eabed cce e e e gd ec ad ded e aecda edece f e aca ea (Acaed Pe, 1987, 2004 & 2014; Pa, 1990; Ne Jee Rega Oea Iegece Cee, 2014; Pae, 2014; S, 2014; Wa, 2016). Hee, aecda eae f c aac ae ffce eab e e ce f e ea af e ed f fe aac. A e eca baed aa eed bee dead e ea, g a aca ad ae f eecc face aac. Te ce dea f c edece-baed eeac eee a gfca ga e eae. T addeed e f ga a ed-ed d ec fced ca aac f e eecc e gd b b-ae ac. Cbe-aac ee ea ecded f aa, a e a aac cdced b a-ae ad a ac. Te ac f accae eg f cbe-aac b e d ad e abece f bc aaabe daa eeed abe caege e c f c aac (Mae & Waa, 2013). A a ac f daa cceg a-ae aac effece feced a a dc ee. Teefe, a ed eeac aac b b-ae ac ( e g). Te ea e f eeac eae e ed a b-ae ac eec eecc face a a egae age f aac. T ed a eed g e e f e g dec ag ad age eec. Secfca, e be gaaa ad eea fac a ca ae c g dec a eaed 3 aga a ee f eecc face aac a ae cced dg e 19 ea ce e begg f e 21 ce (2000-2018). 1.2 Geneal Saemen Te eecc e gd a a cee f de Aeca ce (Cee f e Sd f e Pedec ad Cge, 2014) (. ). A ca aac f e gd cae e ea f f fe, e , c dde, ad ecc . Udeadg e ea fdaea ece a cca gede f effece c ad ee aege. Wee e ceece ae eaed g ecc , faae, e de ac ce, e gd fae deed ea a e cce. Cea Aeca ce cca deede a eabe ad ead f eecc e f a (Bae, 2016). Te f ee dg edea gg ad f afacg a ebded e ada acee f deedece f e 100 ea. Te ea eecc d gaed de acceace e ae eee ad ea ee cee e eg f ab g e ad ce ad e face (Feebeg, 2013; Labe, 2015). T e de ge ea ee-da eace eecc e. Te aadg a adca fed, ad da de ecg ad cca ec ae ecab ed e ead f f eec. Te bag d, cece, feg ade, ad ea ee ce f ec ee eabe e fc. Ee ecee c a ae, fd, ad ea ae adeae ed e e e f. A f e e cca face ec ad b-ec, cdg ae, aa ga, fe , ceca, aa, bc ea, gee, ad defee ae deede eecc fc effece (Kae, 2017). 4 1.2.1 Impac of Peio Gid Faile Pe bac U.S. de e aecda edece f e gd eab deead fae ad ffe a ea g edc f a ccef aac ea ceece. I aca, e 1977 Ne Y ad 2003 Nea bac de eae f e beg ac f e d a ea ad ecc a. Te 1977 Ne Y bac a eae caed e d26 ad affeced 6,000 egaa (MW) f ad, eg eecc e 9 ee. Hee, e ceece f e bac ee gfca (Cee f e Sd f e Pedec ad Cge, 2014). Te c deceded aac deead g, e a 1,300 fe, ad e 3,700 ae (Gda, 2003; Ne, 2010). C ad Me (1978) eaed e ecc ac a $300 , b e ca ef e a 200 ca, 436 ce ffce, ad 80 fefge ed. Ae abed e dea e bac (Iea, 2016). Te 2003 Nea bac ef a eaed 50 ee e ac eg U.S. ae ad a f Caada, effece eg e f f 61,800 MW f eecc. Te affeced b e bac eaed e beee ad f da, ce ea eff aed dffee a f e aced aea. Te U.S. ec ffeed dec ad dec e eaed beee $4 b ad $10 b, a e eg $6 b e fa caca (Cee f e Sd f e Pedec ad Cge, 2014; Gdc, 2005; U.S. - Caada Pe Se Oage Ta Fce, 2004; Bea, Pe, Re, e a., 2006). Te ffca dea acaed e bac a ed a fe ee (Gdc, 2005). Oe ae d bed e Eidemiolog Jonal eaed e f fe f e 2003 Nea Bac a 90 dea, c a gfca deae 5 f e ffca dea . Te d a ed a a ae geea ceae b aae 28% dg ae bac, dg fe edece f e ea ceece f a ccef ca aac (Ade & Be, 2012). I 2019, e 42 d aea f e 1977 d, Ne Y a e aga ged dae (Ved, 2019). Te bac aced 73,000 ce Maaa, b a a --be ede f e . Fe , ee gfca e age affeced ea 80 ee ce e a fe- efae 2019 (Mac- J). Te Ne Y C ad Agea bac ee eae , b e bac Veeea Mac aed e e a ee (Dbe & Ca, 2019). Ad ca ad c e, 43 Veeea e e dg e bac (A, 2019). Te aecda edece f e a ca aac aga e gd gge a ea- ac ce age eecc face e ee. Cdeg e deaed e eab deead d f a ae f cae, e a e aac a ead gfca ac. Te ea ceece f e agde deaed e age bac gge a e dage ae ceg ad ee ae. 1.3 Ppoe of he Sd Te e f d eae e ed a b-ae ac cdc ca aac aga eecc face age. T eaa a cdced f e eece f a ea-ac dec fac. Secfca, defed a e f gaaa ad eea dec fac a fece age eec ad eeed e aca feec f e dec fac e aac f eecc face. T eeac ed e eec f e ecfca defed dec fac f 6 eaa g a ee f e eae e g dec ag ad e de f e aac. Idefg dec fac f e d a ed a cd eaab be f e aaabe daa. I e ce f eaa, e eeac eeed edece f e ea f ca aac e U.S. eecc e gd b b-ae ac. T edece a eeed e f f e aca feec f e aac, ae a eegg ed ggeg a ceag deceag ee f aac. Te aca aa f eecc face aac e e 19 ea de ee eeaed edece f e ea ea. Bed e ea ac eecc face aac, defed e g acaed ee aac ad eaed e deg, e, age, eaa ece, ad f e aac. Ca e aca feec f aac b g baed ee dec de ce ab e bab f fe aac b a aed g? Ug e aca feece f aac ceaed ecfca defed dec fac a a ec ded deg cda ae f e babc ea f fe aac. T deaed ee aca e ca be ed ae. 1.4 Significance of he Sd T eeac a ea gfcace f a ae f eeed aede g. T d e ad be eea de ef fa f a f e eaed e ea f ca aac f eecc face. T d cdeed f ea ce aede g: Iegece aa a d ea-ache commni of acice Eecc ad ec eehe commni of acice Gee ad d ega ad adcaehe olic commni Acadec , eeac abae, ad ahe academic commni 7 Intelligence Agencies Iegece agece ae aed g e g ad e ea-ac. Te aa fe fce acag e dec ad ac f ee g. Sc aa ca ga c age ae f ee aca g. Te ce ca be bece, g aae eaa ae aee. Te ce eeac ded e ec f edcg aca ee eecc face age. Te de f e aa eeed ca be ed e geea ae a g e, cdg c age g be eeced. Eecc face aac daa ee beced e eeac de , b e de ca be geeaabe e age. Electric Utility Industry Te eecc d a eeeced a a ece ea e ceaed ega ad ec. Mada adad eaed face ec ae added baa faca c f e ee a ad eae eecc gd. Oe f e acca beef f ea aee de e deea egadg ee aeg. Meae fced face ec ad eeg d ca be c ad ee ead e eed f ee ee ad ece eff gae ac. Ma d cage ae bee aed a ecg e ca face f , b ee ad ec de ae e . N a f age adeg ca ee a a aac be aed defe. Eea, e ea-ac ccef d e e gd. Te eecc d a deeed a e-cde egece caab a ade gee egece agece. A g de f aeg ea ca ee a f g egece caabe fc aca ea-ac. T ca f ee aeg dc. 8 Policymakers Gee cae ad d adcae gee ae fe c, egg e f d aga e d ee c. Te aa eeac a e ea f ad ceae e c debae. Te ead ec eee ad gee caged e ec f ee ad face ae a ea aede eeed eeac (Mada, 2011). Academia Reeace ad acadec ae ded f a ea, ad ee a eabed fda f eae acaed aee. T eeac ee add a eae b eg e aae ad aae daa e ea e a. Te ea f acadea e aace babc ac, aae aee, a f e cce eeed eeac dbed f e ed eff. Acadea a ca eed a ce f eeg eae a ae f bec ad eg e eae cbe e ea eeac deg. T eeac fe cbed e acce e eea f a e ad acadeca g ed f cag ea-aa e eae ee ce, ea acg eeac deg. 1.5 Reeach Poblem Ag ee a abdace f e dcea cag e fd f a age-cae aac f e e gd, fe f ee e bae e ae a gfca a f eca edece. Ee fee ae aed a g cefc caa edg aeg a f . T aecda aac 9 aca c e ag ad aeg e hea (ed) eee, c geea acceed a bece ad dffc af. Ma gee e, e ae, ad b b a ee baed e aaa f ea ad eceda f ga aecda edece ad bece aa. 1.5.1 Rik Fomla R= (T,V,C) Ag e ce a ec fced e ea ed f ca aac, ee a cea ae f a geea dc f ec, ce e eee f (eab ad ceece) eac e ea ce (Naa Reeac Cc, 2010). Te eae c defe a a cba f ea (ed), eab (ee), ad ceece (ac), fe eeed a T V C (Naa Reeac Cc, 2010). T ce efeed ad a b e Deae f Head Sec ad e ce a R= (T,V,C) (C, 2008; Naa Reeac Cc, 2010). Te a a bee defed a R = A Fc f Tea, Veab, ad Ceece (R = f(T,V,C)), [c] a ca abe fae f beag ce eee (Naa Reeac Cc, 2010, . 52). I de cde a ee ce deede, b a eea a e cda e ce f e eac e ae, f dead (Naa Reeac Cc, 2010, . 96-99). We ag fae e gd d, cca dead e cec beee a ea-ac ed cdc a ac aac, e eab f e gd deead fae, ad e ea ac f c a fae f a cae. Tee a feedbac ed e ea beee ee eee f . 10 Le (2020) defed ea a, Pbab f a aa a-ade ccece ac a a e ea a fe, fa, ea, e ee ad/ e (. 24). I e cae f a ea aac, a bab ca be ded cde a, caab, ad (Acea e a., 2007). Tee ee fac ca be aaed deede ad eaa e e eab f beg aaced ad e ea ceece. Ue e ea ce f , ee ae eaabe ad e-eabed de af e eab f f e e gd. We ee ed f deg eab ae geea acceed e eae, e ae debae. M ed e aca aa ad cacae e feec f e ce fae f a cae, e cae de-baed e aa a bacg ed (Ca & Pe, 2005; Db, 2012; K, Bce & Db, 2013; Le, 2020). Se eab ee ded b deg e gd a a e ad eaca eg de cae a aed cacade. Le (2020) ed a e deg ece a Mde-Baed R Aa (MBRA), c e decbed a: MBRA defe e Z a e f ea-e a eged b e e e cba f e ee c a degee beeee (. 398). Te eae e e a eecc e gd ca be deed a a-d e cae-fee e, ad e de acceed (Wa & Sga, 1998; Sga, 2001; Baab, 2003; Xa, Fa & H, 2010). Te geea, afe, ad ba ae deed a e de, ad e e eee e edge (Ca & Pe, 2005). Ne a ae cdced b eece eg de ad/ 11 cae a cacadg dbace e e. T eee deged cae eba a agae g e e ad degade e ee e eface ad ca be ed af eab eece deedg feece ae da f e fdg (Ba & Ma, 2015). Cc f aac ae e ac f aca ca age daa adae e. Te fee aac f afg eab e ca age daa eab ae f cacadg fae. T aac, aed b Db (2012), a e e aa f Ga-Wa bacg aa deee ee age cacade ac e eecca be. Te cacade ag ged age eee a e-baed ae f e aca db, c fee caaceed b a e-a db (Re & Db, 2008; Db, 2012; K, Bce & Db, 2013; Caea, Nea & Db, 2016). Te eae eee de f deadg e ceece f age-cae e age. Te eee a cbe ce (.e., age da ad aga f cacade) ca be afed, a ca e aca ce (e.g., ecc , faae, ca dde). Ecc fee ee a e be ed f deadg e ac f eee e age. Re, Oad & La (2007) ed e eabed aac f eag ecc a a eae f ceece. I e a ace, Re e a. eaed e dec ad dec ecc ac f a aed -ee e age caed b a e aac e geae L Agee aea. T aed bac be e ceece ee cacaed g a cabe geea eb (CGE) de. Te daa ed f e eeac a f e Sca Accg Ma (SAM) f L Agee C ad deed f e Iac Pag ad Aa (IMPLAN) daabae, c 12 ed a -e aac dcae aa ad ae ecc dca cdg , ce, ad ee. Te daa ed a fdg a e aed age d e a $20.5 b ecc eece ade ad a a $2.8 b e c f eece fac (Re, Oad & La, 2007). Te Re e a. eee e fdg f a age bd f eeac e ecc f aa ad a-ade dae. Re bee 2017 b e ca f 20 ea f eeac e ecc ac f dae. Te eeac b e Ecc Ceece Aa Fae ad adaed f a Mcf Ece-baed fae aca caed E-CAT (Ecc Ceece Aa T). Te ce aa deeed g a ee f a g e CGE Mde (Re e a., 2017). 1.5.2 Saiical Challenge Te ce dd af e eab f a ege f e e gd e ceece f a age-cae d. Tee aec f ae bee deed ad ae bed e ce f ; e ae cded e geea dc f ce ad gg e ace f afg ea fac e de. Cacadg e age ee aca caege f aa becae f e e-a db a eege f c f e daa, dcag eee ad ae ee. Tee ee ae a ee efe a bab, g ceece ee, e caac eae, Black San (Taeb, 2010). Te ee e g a f e e-a db ae f cce, ceae e , ad ae e dffc af. Mdeg f ee c a age-cae e d caed b ac aac a ce deag ad dece e caege f e a. 13 Te a caege ag ad afg hea def e deg dec fac f e aac a feced e -ae ac eec eecc face a a abe ad egae age. Te ecd caege eae a e cde-ecfc e f dec fac a feced ac ca aac aga ee age. A aa ca a e fac a ae c dec. Hee, a caef d f e aac ad ea-ac caacec ca eea ae fac f fe aa. T aa ee a edg dee afed ae f ee dec fac a efec e eae fece. Te fa caege aebe ee ae a g de f deadg e ed f a aca ea-ac eec eecc face a a age ad ea ae a bab f c a aac. Se fdaa g bab ea a baed ad babc aa (PRA). T cce a bee aed cca face fae a R=P(c)C, ee C ceece (Le, 2020). MIT Pfe Na Rae aed PRA ad fa ee g Baea ac aae e bab f fae a cea e a. A e e f Rae e, ee ad bee cde f a fae bae e ac (McGae, 2011; Le, 2020). Te accde a e Tee Me Iad Ncea Fac 1979 adaed c f Rae ec aa (McGae, 2011). A aabe a Baea aac ed Rae eeac ad eae aae, a aed e aa f e ad a bea. U e ae 1990, ee ee fe ae af a a caab f ac aac ad a ac f aae aa eaed ea aac. Pbabc ed f aeg e f e aac ea a bec f debae. Te aca f PRA a aa e d f e aac beac 14 ce e ada e dec-ag aege eac ceeae (Ee e a., 2010, . 575). PRA e aac f afg ea; ee, ce ee ae bee aac eecc e face dde, e aca f dece ac a aaabe ad aae f dg e feec f e aac. Se cba f e d f e feec f e aac ad a cda bab caca f fe aac ffe a c b. 1.5.3 Fondaion of Thea Anali Te ce eeac caeged b e ed e c bae a fda. Te de a fc age eec ae fe, ad e a eae aac f cca face ae fee . A g eaa f e age eec f eecc face, aca, be eed f e ed ce g daae aec f e dec-ag ad age eec geea. Neeee, e bed dece ea f e e ce f ad fc age eec aca. Dae (1998a & 1998b) aaed e dege, aege, ad acc dead ea ea age eec. We Dae a eded edc a aca g age efeece, eabed a fae f e eea aaed e e. Acea ad e eeac ea a e Laece Lee Naa Laba Dae fae ad dced a 2007 e f e Cee f Nfea Sde (CNS) a e Mee Ie f Ieaa Sde. Aeing Teoi Moiaion fo Aacking Ciical Inface aea be e f fe de a aeed ceae ea-ac deg, gaaa dac, ad age eec a fc e ed f aac aga cca face (Acea e a., 2007). We 15 ec aed a aac f e e gd, d f cca face aac de a g fda f aae ea aee f e eecc b-ec. Te e aed aae g ad aca aa a dee daae f aac. Acea eeac a aae ab a, cdg e eed f a e agfad fae a eae eaae (Acea e a., 2007). Te daae a ed aae 900 aac ac a e cca face ec dceed befe 2005. Tda, e aaabe daa cde e 4,000 aac ecfc eecc face dde, ad ee c e daa e g ebe f e aac. Fee adda ea f daa ffe e g ad a e daa, eeb g e de eab. Te Acea aae cae de ad aae aabe de ea f Dae ad e aaca fae (Acea e a., 2007). Ne fae a cde ca de ad cea fac a a f e -de aa (Baa, Dae & Sdbeg, 2014; Hffa, 2017). Te ab eab af eae ea eeed a gfca caege f e ce . Te aae ad aae ed ed d ee e gfca cb f deag. T e a e ea f e eeac be. 1.5.4 Fe Domeic Aack Tee ae bee eae fe aca aac e e gd e Ued Sae, ad f ee ae eed gfca ac. T dea f dec aac aa acc f e ed daa aaabe f aa. Hece, ee ce de deaed de f a ceee aee f ac aac aga e U.S. e gd. Te ac f dec aac eed e e f daa f aac eaa. Tee aac cded e ce ee a ad de ae cace, decac f f 16 gee ae -ee, ad e cae, faed ae. T ac f dec daa eeed a caege ceag aac e ea f aac ee e Ued Sae. A be a e a daae age eg a cded aac ccg a dee cec f ce ad eg f e d. Te aac daae cde ce g ad decac gee f, ee ec effece ad cdaed. 1.5.5 No Eablihed Model fo Thea Fe, aa ae g de af e bab a a aca ea-ac e age e eecc e gd. Ee ea, ded f b-ae ea- ac a ad cdc ad f aac dde a age f age. Tee e gdace a c g ad dda . T e a ae ceeae adde ea e gd a age f a ae. Te ac f c a de egece ag e beee gee ad d. Te deee f a bee deadg f e ad e eabe f c a g de ae gf e ad ecg a f e ceece f c aac. R aee de a f bee aa f e ea ce f ea, de a fca f ac, defe e e f ac be ae, ad a d ee aeg ee a c ee ad ga eae de ea ae (Sea, 2010). Ag a e R= (T,V,C) fa a cee edg f a eae aee f , e d f cacae eabe aca ae f T, V, ad C deede (Naa Reeac Cc, 2010, . 52). Ma e de g eae f e ea (T) ce ge ea agee ad bae aee e a caca f eab ad ceece. We aed a aee, 17 ea eae ae fe deed f aba da cae ad ea ace (Hbbad & Seee, 2016). Te caege ee a eae ea deede, g aca gfca ae daa ad cee ae a e f fdaea eeac e. 1.5.6 Ho hi Sd Seek o Adde he Poblem T d aed de a bee deadg f e fac a fece e dec f b-ae ea-ac, cae, e g, e eecg abe age f aac. Te a ea fced dec aac eecc face. I dg, d bece ee a ee dec fac a aca aa f e aac ad eae e bab a ecfc g d be e e aac eecc face e fe. T ae ga a cbe a eabe ad eeaabe de f ea aee g aae ad aae ed. T d fdg ad e eg aee de e egece aa, gee cae, d ec fea, ad eece ee. T a beef acadeca eeg ead e acca f eeac ad eeac deg. 1.6 Reeach Qeion and Appoach Te eeac e eed e ce ae a f: 1) H e e ea f a ca aac e U.S. eecc e gd b a b- ae ea-ac? 2) Wa ae e eea dec fac a fece e eec f eecc face a a aac age b a b-ae e g? 3) H ca c a e f dec fac be afed? 4) Wa e ed a a aca ea-ac ce eecc face a a age f aac? Te eeac e d ee cfed a eaa f e hea (T) ce f e R= (T,V,C) fa. A ae de e ee fa eaed face aac a deadg deag ad bed e ce f eeac. 18 Fe, ee e ae fced ea-ac ad e e ad caab ca aac eecc face. Qe eaed cbe-aac f eecc face ee addeed ee de e ad ece a. Te ec f cbe-aac eecc face a fe baed e a a cbe-eaed cde ae de-eed, ad eabe ac ae aaabe, edeg a aa a ecae. T ae ed e eae (Mae & Waa, 2013). Te e eed e deee f a e f dec fac a fece ea-ac e eec f eecc face a a egae age. Te afed ad eaed e ed a a ea-ac eec eecc face a a aac age f ag a aa f e ea cce, g e gaaa ad eea dec fac deeed f e eae. Ca e def a e f eea dec fac a cbe e eec f aca aac age b b-ae ea-ac? H ca c a e f dec fac be defed ad adaed? Pece, e cae f aac f eecc e face, ca e ed be afed a a aca ac a ce age? H ca e cc a de ae e ea f a aac e eecc e gd? T eeac edeaed eae ad af e ea f a ccef aac ecfc age; ee, e ed deeed ca be ed ae dec eaed e age. We e a e ed a cee edce de a age f a, de a fda f aeg e ea ad eabg ae f dec fac a cd ae cbe a fe edce de. 19 1.6.1 Reeach Appoach T a ed-ed d g bed daa f a ce ad becg a daa a -e ce, c ced f e fg: 1. A a e f f ea-aa f e eae def b-ae g dec fac a fece e g eec aca age f aac. 2. Cdc a aca eaa f e eecc face aac, g e dec fac a eege f e ea-aa a f aa. 3. Cdc aca aa def be cea f fac aac. 4. Ue e aca ae f eac fac cdc a babc ea aee. 1.6.2 Daa Collecion Daa cec a fced aac f eecc face, ee e aacg g ad bee defed, ad eabg eaed ae f ea-ac a, caabe, e, ad ea ea. Te ae aac daa a e ee cea ced 521 aac. Te a daae a e Ue f Maad, Naa C f e Sd f Te ad Ree Te (START) (2019) Gba Te Daabae (GTD). Te START daabae cded e 190,000 dceed e aac f 1970 g 2018, c fa eceeded e a ad age f daa e 2007 Acea e a. CITIC face daae. START daa bc aaabe ad dadabe a Mcf Ece eadee fa. Te Ece eadee daa ee daded f ://.a.d.ed/gd , ad e daa ee feed eae aac aga eecc e ad e gd face, c cded 4,310 aac f 1970-2018. I aea a e aace ee 2,966 cae. T feed daae ecfc eecc face aac ad e ece a e CITIC daae, c cded aac ac a cca face ec. Te daa ee fe feed cde aac f e 19- 20 ea age f e d (2000-2018), eag 521 aac. T ae eee a aac f Jaa 2000 g Decebe 2018 aga eecc face, ee e g ebe f e aac a defed. Oe daa ce ee ed caf g caacec ad dec fac f eac ecfc e g aae cde e START aac daa. Tee ce cded e fg: Jae Wd Igec & Te IHS Ma bca Safd Ue, Cee f Ieaa Sec ad Cea (CISAC), Mag Ma Ogaa Daabae Te Reeac & Aa C (TRAC) Cee f Saegc ad Ieaa Sde (CSIS) Gba Te Ide Wee ee daabae faed def g caacec ecea cde e START daa, adda ce ee ed. T adda ce aea cded ega daa f e g Yee, e Pe, Lba, ad eea ce S Aa ad e Lea (Sa, Sa & Da, 2010; Baa, 2014; Cae e a., 2017; Je e a., 2017; Vae, 2017; Sa, 2019). Secfc fa e g faca ece, eaed aa eee, ad ce f ce a eeaced Jae Wd Igec & Te IHS Ma bca (2019), Fbe Ieaa (Zea, 2014 & 2018), ad e ecfc ce (Be e a., 2002; Sce, 2004; B, Wae, & Fec, 2017; Hea, 2019). 1.6.3 Independen Vaiable Te deede aabe ee eabed b aag eac e g ebe f aac aga eecc face f Jaa 2000 Decebe 2018 (19 ea). Eac 21 g a ded deee e eda deg, gaaa age, be f ace ebe, ac abdace f eaa ece, ad ee e g a e aaced eecc face. Tee fac (e.g., deg, age, e, eaa ece & e aac) ee cded e daa acaed eac g ad eed a e deede aabe f e aca aa. 1.6.4 Dependen Vaiable Ug e aac a a f aa, e ce fced e deced ad eecc face. Te da f a e f aabe ee e defca f aac f e age e eea e e ed cae. Teefe, e START-GTD daae a feed def eac e aac ecfca deced aga eecc face beee Jaa 2000 ad Decebe 2018 (19 ea), ee e aac a abed a ecfc e g. T ae daa ced f 521 aac a e e cea ad ee ed a e deede aabe e aca aa. 1.6.5 Saiical Appoach Te aca eaa f aeed e ea ea b cag e aac f eecc face aac aga a age ad acg b e f aac e e deee ee aac ee ceag deceag. Ug e dec fac a deede aabe ad aac a deede aabe, e aca feec f a aac eecc face a cacaed. Tee caca ee ed eab cda ae ad cdc a babc aa eae e bab f fe a aac b e g a ae gaaa caacec. 22 1.7 Thei Saemen Ogaaa eee ad eea fac fece a age f dec a e g ae, cdg c age e eec f a aac. If ee aee, e d be abe eec a ae f ee gaaa eee ad eea fac ad eae e feec f aac a ecfc e f age a d ead beabe dffeece a feec baed e eee ad fac dffe ag g. Acea e a. (2007) fced cca face e ea f dea b ag, T d a deae dee a geae deadg f e fac ad dac a dce e aac cca face (. ). Sce ee ae dec ad ece de f d a ecfca eae eecc face b-ec aac, e eeac e aac f cca face, e bad, ad e eeg ec, c cde eecc, , ad ga cece, eed a e ee. Neeee, bac gc ca be aed a eeced age. T ec ecfc ae a aca eee eeged a aca e fee e e ee eed aga e aac f eecc face. Te eee e defed a deede aabe , c ee eed eeac, ae g deg, age, e, eaa ece, ad ee a g a ageed eecc face e a. A e f eabe ee ee gged f e ea bea eaed e aaabe daa. 1.7.1 Gop Ideolog Tee geea ageee a g deg a a gfca e ag e g dec, cdg age eec (Dae, 1998a & 1998b; P e a., 2002a; McCc, 2003; Vcff, 2005; Aa & Reeee, 2008; Tf, De & Beaa, 2010; 23 Aed, 2018b). Hee, debae ea e c degca g fa c age. T a e cae f eabg c eeg face b-ec aea a deabe age g ac e degca ec. Acea e a. (2007) daa (dde aac 1933-2003) dcaed a ad ga ced 50% f e aac, e eecc b- ec age ade 15% f e aac cca face a a e. Me (2016) eeed ea e e e a daae f dec aac (U.S., 1970-2015), c ed 53% f aac ageg eecc face ad 8% ageg ad ga. Te degca eeac ffe ee e abg. Me (2016) abed f e eeg ec aac ef-g g, e Tf e a. (2010) defed eca-a g (a bed f ef- ad g-g g) e a af f e aac aga eeg face. Tf e a. (2010) ade a gg a aaeaa ae e ge f ag g aacg ETI [eeg face] (. 4413). Te Acea e a. (2007) d f aac cca face ( geea) abed f e e aac eca-a ad e-aa g, e Acea e a. (2007) edced a e a f fe aac d be cdced b Gba Jad G (. 172). Aed (2018b) beed a a f e-aa ad ef-g g ae e ge edced bab f aacg face age, e a g a face aac b ef-g g ae e dece (. 386). T bea ea ed b a ea aee f e START-GTD daa (2000-2018), c ed e-aa e ge ee f eecc face aac ad ceag e e. Lef-g g fac ee e ecd-ge g, b e aca ed a fa ee g deceag e e ae ed. Teefe, a e a e- 24 aa g d acc f e eecc face aac a e degca g. A c, eed: H1: Phical aack of elecic inface ae moe likel o be condced b ehno- naionali/epaai eoi gop. 1.7.2 Gop Age Te eae ggeed e ageee a e age a f a e g feced a age f dec egadg acc, age eec, ad e e f e ecge (Dae, 1998a; Hffa & McCc, 2004; Acea e a., 2007; Aa & Reeee, 2008; Aa e a., 2009; H, 2010). A ea ee f e START- GTD daa (2000-2018) ggeed a g e ge aac eecc face a ge ae. Teefe, a e a de g (>5 ea) d acc f e eecc face aac a e fed g (<5 ea). A c, eed: H2: Phical aack of elecic inface ae moe likel o be condced b eoi gop ha hae been in eience fo oe 5 ea. 1.7.3 Gop Sie Te e f a e gaa a a fc f gaaa ce ed e cea eaa caabe ad ece (Acea e a., 2007)). Dae (1998a) aed g e gaa b ceag e ce f aac ad e age f ea age a ca be aaced a g e. Ee e ad f ecg, c ca be ad fece eaa caab, a a bee ceaed e e f a e g (Jac, 2001). Acea e a. (2007) e fe b ccdg g cae de a g e cbed a g ab aac cca face. A ea ee f e START-GTD daa (2000-2018) ggeed a age g aac eecc face a ge ae, ad ed ee ae ceaed e e. 25 Teefe, a e a age g (>3,000 ebe) d acc f e eecc face aac a ae g (<3,000 ebe). A c, eed: H3: Phical aack of elecic inface ae moe likel o be condced b eoi gop ih moe han 3,000 membe. 1.7.4 Gop ih Peio Elecic Inface Aack Te eae a ed a e g ea f e cce fae f e aac. Te g ed ecae ccee ad e aac a age eeaed (Dae, 1998a; McCc, 2003; Acea e a., 2007; Hffa, 2017). A ea eaa f e START-GTD (2000-2018) daa dcaed a geae aca feec f aac eecc face b g a ea e aac f a age. A c, eed: H4: Phical aack of elecic inface ae moe likel o be condced b eoi gop ha hae 2 o moe peio aack. 1.7.5 Opeaional Reoce Te eae a a e g eaa caabe ad ece fece, ad a e , dec, cdg c age ca ad aac (Dae, 1998a, . 73-97; Acea e a., 2007, . 155; Ga, 2008, . 279). T bea a aecda ede aac f eecc face. Sc daa (START-GTD 2000-2018) eeaed a g feec f aacg g, c ae ed ag e be- eced g e d (Zea, 2014 & 2018). A ea ee f e START-GTD daa (2000-2018) ggeed a e g geae eaa caabe ad ece d aac eecc face a ge ae. A g ac abdace f eaa ece a defed baed e, a f eade, acce adda ee (eee), aaab f ea, faca ece, ecca ceece, ab ae, ad f ecg, 26 eg ab, ad e cea f aace e g (Dae, 1998a; Jac, 2001; McCc, 2003; Acea e a., 2007, H, 2010). A c, eed: H5: Phical aack of elecic inface ae moe feqenl condced b eoi gop ih geae opeaional eoce (e.g., a combinaion of eene, acce o ophiicaed eapon, e of echnolog, ae o paon ppo, and popla local ppo). 1.8 Theoeical Fameok Dae (1998a) ad Acea e a. (2007) eabed a eeca fae f dg ad deadg e a gaaa ad eea dec fac a aed e eec f age b e g. Dae (1998a) bad eaed age eec geea. Acea e a. (2007) fced aac f cca face, cdg eecc face, b dd cceae ece e gd aac. B eaed age eec b ag a age f dec fece ad fac. Oe f e ce f ce a e eegece f a daed eeca fae a cceae ecfca aac f eecc face b ffe e ea f dg aac a eeced e f age. Te fae aed a g ed f defg fece ad fac a ca ae dec eaed age eec, ad e ed a aca ce f eabg e feec f e a aac ad a cda bab de f eag e ea f fe a aac. 1.9 Ampion and Limiaion Ge e eae a be f dec aac f eecc face, aed a a eaa f gba aac ca be ceaed e dec ea. De e ae f ca, ca, ad ec ee e a ce ee ee aac cced, a ca be debaed ad d be cdeed e aeg e ce eeac. T a a ea gaed b e c f aac f 38 27 dffee ce 10 dffee eg f e d, c cded N Aeca, Wee Ee, e Mdde Ea & Lea, N Afca, Cea Aa, Sea Aa, S Aeca, Eae Ee, Sb-Saaa Afca, ad S Aa. Te aa f a eecc face aac dd cde a eagf eaa f e ceece f e aac. Te aa a ed age aac gfca a ad ecc ac. Te aaed daa cded a aac eecc face dg e ed de ee, ee eae a aac. A b 14 f e aac e be caed e a $1 daage. Ne f e aac eed daage a eceeded $1 b. I ca be aged a ea ad ceece d be deced ad ded eaae becae a effece edc f age aac e U.S. T a ad cce, ad e eeac d be eed a d. Te deee f cda babe eae e bab f fe ee ca be de g a ae f ed, cdg e eca f e-cabaed ee (Wag & Be, 2013; Hbbad & Seee, 2016). Te ce aed a cda ae deed f e aca feec f a ee ee a abe ad, e cae, e ed aac. T a ca ad a bee caeged e eae. Tee a eaabe age a ae ad cda ae ca be a effece eabed a a fc f e beef (Ee e a., 2010; Had & Abba, 2015). 1.10 Smma of he Dieaion Te eag cae f dea cde e fg: Cae 2 a ee f e eae e de, c a ec aed a a e f aea eaed e g dec fece. T cae a cde eee eeac e caacec f e e g eaed e aa. 28 Cae 3 a ee f e eeac ed ed d. Tee ed cded e eea f a e ad eae ea-aa f e eae, a dec f e daa cec, cdg ed, ad e aca ed eed aae e daa. Cae 4 a e-b-e ee f e aca aa ad e. Cae 5 cde a deaed dc f e aa ad cc eaed e babe a eeged f e . T cae eae e eg ad a f e ce e eg e f fe eeac a cd f f d. 29 Chape 2: Lieae Reie 2.1 Inodcion Bdg a fda f e e de e g ad e b-ae ac eec eecc face a e age f aac a deag. Secfca, e eae cc abe f de aac f eecc face. Tee ae a fe de f eeg face aac, c cde eecc gd ce, b a cde ga ad face ad eaed ce. Tee ae a de f cca face aac e geea, g eeg ad eecc face, ad cdg gee face, aa e, ae face, ec. Te b f e eae fced e g ae dec ad eec age geea. Tag e ceee e, de beg a d f e eae g a ad dec fece, ad e gada a ecfc fac a ae age eec. Tee bade ee ca be eaaed ea ae ee f e fac a ca ae eecc face aac. Ag a e f b-ae ac ca ad ae aaced eecc face, e ceee aaabe daa e aac b e g, c ca ee a a f a b-ae g ad dda eec eaag dec fac. Secfca, e eae ceae age eec dec ade b ada ca ac a dec ade b e g ad e ca ac (Cae & Nea, 2006; Mace & G, 2018; Mace, Baa, & G, 2018). Lgca ca ad -ead caca ae eaab a ac a ec f b-ae ac (Cae & Nea, 2006; Mace & G, 2018; Mace, Baa, & G, 2018). 30 Mc f e deg fac a acc f dec eaed acc ad age eec ea ce ac a ee e f eea. Teefe, eeac beefed f a ee f e eae e de, c a eed e e a 50 ea. T eae ee eaed e a, fece, ad dec-ag cee f e g. Te cce ag ee g, cdg c acc ae eed ad c age ae eeced f aac, ae aba. Dae (1998b) aed a aac b -ae e g ae ae dcae. Tage eec ead deeed b a be f fac (. 53). Tee dec fac eege f a g ad bad ee f e e g de eae. Ug a e f e eae ad aaabe e g daa, fced deadg e ea f b-ae ea-ac aac ad daage eecc face. Te e gd, c e e cca face ae, ee a aace age. Te dec f eecc face ce a ea eee bc afe ad ecc ceece. W ea d, ee fce e deg dec a e g ae cceg e eec f age f aac. Te ecfc ee aac f eecc face eed g a e f aa f dec-ag e bade ee. Sca ad ec fea ae g dead e deg a f e g f decade. Te aae ga f 50-ea e f a geae deadg f e g dec-ag f c aed a e ee ad d f e ac. T ee f e eae eae e e f ca g e a ad ee e e fac a fece beaa cce, c a e dec egage ca ece, cce f acc, ad e eec f 31 aca age. We e fce a ae e dda e a ae e eeace ee, e a a aae e gaa dec a g ce ad ecfca e fac a fece g dec. Te eae be eeed a a bad ca ee def ea ca a cbed e fda f de e de ad gg e e f g egadg e egage e. Se f ee ea cce ae ce bee dced, dcaded, e cae, caed e ece ad ce de f dec- ag. Tee ea ee de ce f a bee deadg f ae ad e ae dec-ag de, ad e gg e eed f eeca fda baed eca edece. Tee a bee c ae ad e modi oeandi f e g, c a e ca be bee ded ad, e ece, e dec cea e cea defed. Sca a g ea e g egaged ca ece a a ead f e f f ee ad ca eace (Je, 1974; Cea, 1981). Te debaed ee e beaed a aa ac, ag gca dec a ee ea e aegc a (Cea, 1990), ee e aced dcae, a fc f e cgca defec, a a ea f cgca, ca, ca ee (P, 1990). Eea, e eeged egadg g aaced aca age, e ce ecfc acc, ad a aed e g f aac (Hffa, 1993). Tee e ea eea ag ce-e c. Te ee bef eae e e f e ce e, e a e fc e g ae ecfc dec ad e eae a defed a dc e f fece a ae c dec. Te ce f ee 32 f decbe e cgca e f e eae ad e cb, ad e ee e eeac eaed e dec, cdg acc ad age eec, ad ae d ecfc fac a cbe e dec. 2.2 Eolion of Teoi Gop Moiaional Theo Mde e, a ded e acceed eae, bega e 1880 Ra (Ra, 2004), ag a f f ca ece ad bee eece f c ge. Accdg Ra (2004), de e ca be be f dc ed Wae ag e Aac Wae e 1880, fed b e A- Ca Wae e 1920, e Ne Lef Wae e 1960, ad e Reg Wae gaed b e e f e Iaa gee b Aaa Ke 1979 (. 47). Ra beeed a eac f e f ae ee aae 40 ea eg, ad eee f eac ae edaed ffca aa ad geed e a agee ad e e ae. T e eea e ce d f e becae eac ae eeed ea f e e e, ad eac ae a caaed e ecge. Te Ra aac eed e dce f dae f e ccg bb. Tda Ia ad g ae e f e ee ad a eda af f dea f fa a a ce eaa caab. Tee eg caabe aed e dec ad, ae, e ecfc acc ad e age e eec (Ra, 1971 & 2004; Je, 1974; McCc, 2003). Te de d f e ad ecfca e d f e a ad dec bega eae dg e 1970 a e d ae eaced ae (Baa, Ee & Sdbeg, 2001; McCc, 2003). Sca dg e a, dec, acc, ad age eec f e g a aed e e a 50 ea, ad 33 eegece, e fed a eed e e f e ca-ace a a cea cb e eae. Tee cded Je, eed e U.S. A, P ad Sagea, b f ed a aa f e Cea Iegece Agec, ad a e. Tee ace aaed ad aeed ce e ee. Te a cbed acadea ad e fa d f e. Te ea ad fdaa cb e ca f e de, a e g cde e fde, cded Je, fa ad, Te eae (1974, . 4), Ra, f e f ae f e (2004) ad geeaa a cadc a e eed f ca ece (1971), ad Lae, ade ea cec beee de ecg ad e (1977). Je a a e ace f ecg ad eeace e dec ag e e aed a Cea ecg a ded e e age ad caabe (Je, 1975, . 4). Je a ceg e aa f gba e a ae, a eda cca g ee ad ad, e eegece f adaced ea, ad e ca f ee eea e caabe cdc ac f ca ece a eaa cae (Je, 1975). H d f 45 ea ag ee ece da, a e cde e e f ea f a dec, a gba cca e, ad e adaced ecge a ae fe eaced e eaa caab f e g. W (1974) eaed e g a ea e (. 125-135), e G (1970) a a e beee eae dea ad a f f ca ece (. 24). Te ea -ce ecage beee Cea ad P (1990) caed e aegc cce ad c-gc e f e a, eece (. 7-40). Te eegece f Hffa e 1990 ad cb e ca e e age f e 34 acceeaed ace f ca g e a, acc, ad age eec (Hffa, 1993). 2.2.1 Eal Deciion Model Te dec de eed f eg e geea a f ca ece a e cceaed eaa f ecfc fac. Sa (1991 & 1998) ade gfca cb deadg f e bea ad deeed a de eded feca adcaa ad ea ece. H ca f eea fac eabed a fae a ea edce de. Sa (1998) a aeg def a e e a adca g a f -e ee e ac f e (P, Rb & Sa, 2002a). He cced a fae 11 dcee ad ececed fac ecag cgca, ca, gaaa, ca, aegc, ad eea cdea (Sa, 1998). Sa ee a ece cgca a aa aac, ad e dd e ee fac a; ag, e ae f e eea ec acaed (1998). Te de ad a adda e a afed e a a ec ce. P e a. (2002a) decbed Sa Te Pea Ide (TPI) a a a adace e a aeg a adca g f e b e cced e de f e c deg, abece f cca fac, ad ac f ega (. 75). P e a. (2002a) caeged e aae ce ad ed a cfe db ec a ea a age aae ea (. 75). P e a. (2002a) b Sa (1998) dec fae dee a e ceee de f dec fac. T fae a eeed a aag 35 Le Fed Te (1939) decbe f eag ad eacg fed (P e a., 2002a, . 77): Hca, Ca, Cea Feae Ke Ac Affecg e G Te G/Ogaa Te Iedae Sa P e a. (2002a) eeed e fae a a ea f decbg e adcaa ce ad e fac a g dcae e e ece. I e a, e P e a. (2002a) fae eebe Mgadda (2006) Sacae e (. 43- 44). Ue Sa (1998), P e a. (2002a) dd a a aae ec e de. Te eeac deg ed e aca f ee ee g e De ed. Te de ea a e bd f a ca-cgca ea. W eac f e caege fed ee ae a e f dda fac (P e a., 2002a & 2002b). Te ca, ca, ad cea caeg cded c-ecc cd ad e g eaed cfc, ece, eg, ca ab, ad e eea fac. Te e ac caeg cded fac eaed a g, cbe ege, e, ad e ed aede, ad e eac e g (P e a., 2002a & 2002b). T caeg ce fac defed b a ae f ca (Dae, 1998a; Acea e a., 2007; Baa e a., 2014). Te fa caege gged e gaaa caacec ad eea cd a g fece g dec (P e a., 2002a). Tee geea ee a aeaed e f Dae (1998a), McCc (2003), Acea e a. (2007), Lbc e a. (2007), Baa e a. (2014), ad Aed (2018), ag ee a aaced e ecfc ce ad ebage f e e. 36 Dae (1998a) aaed e g deg, aege, acc, caabe, eea fac, age caacec, e ec ee, ad e fac bee dead ea dec-ag fece. We Dae a eded edc e age efeece f aca g ae ea dec, ed e a f e ca eea faed e e. He eaed a aac dae, cdg abage, ageed aaa, a caa aac, acg, ad age ege. A e e f Dae g, ee f dec aa ad bee de. M f e eae e dec fac dea bade e f e egaged e, ecfca a dec fac feced ee g ae e ece a ed e e aaabe aeae de ca cage (G, 1970; W, 1974; Lae, 1977; Cea, 1981; Scd & Jga, 1988; Sa, 1991). T bade e ed e aa ac . cgca a age (Cea, 1990; P, 1990). Dae a fa e ceee ad ece eaa f dc g dec fac. Dae (1998a) deeed a de f e dec-ag ad a age-eec ce a feaed a eacca ce ee deg f aeg, c de acc ad, ae, age eec. Dae eac aed b fecg fce a eac f ee age, cdg g dac, eea , eaa caabe, e ec ee, ec f e age, ad e ce cd (1998a). Dae fe deaed e f e aeg a deeed g a aee f ece ca ad a aaa f e e eac f eea aede. Te e cde ee e aca aegc bece be e, c a e ea f a ea, ca f ege eac, ec. Te aegc bece ae fe ded eg e age ae 37 ea e ad e e age eced. T -ead e a bee eced c f e eeac ce Dae (Cae & Nea, 2006; G, Mace, Ce, e a., 2018). Te age ec cee a deee e cce f acc f e ea ee ce ae age. A a ce, e g ca ce be e age f ae abad e ea agee. Te e f a ea abade de a feedbac f fe ea ad ea age (Dae, 1998a). 2.2.2 21 Cen Deciion Fameok Mc f e eaed eae g e d-2000 a aed b McCc (2003) ad Vcff (2005), ag e aaced e f dffeg eece. McCc (2003) eed e eae cea g cdae a ee ee bad fae ea e g dec-ag. Te aegc, gaaa, ad cgca fae ed b McCc ffeed a gca bd f caege c gae be f e ceced fac a ee g de dec. Tee fae eaed dec ecaae ee ac aca ece, deee c acc g be eed, ad ce c age aac (McCc, 2003). Vcff (2005) dced a eae ee a a eaed cgca ad cgca fece f dec-ag. Ag aed e ac f eca daa f e ecfed ee f c e ffeed gfca ad ed cc, Vcff acedged e ea ae f a de a beded a f cg, deg, gaaa ce, ad aeg (2005). H eae ee added a geae deadg f dec fac f e g. 38 Acea e a. (2007) ad e eeac ea a e Laece Lee Naa Laba cbed e eee, eea, ad deaed dae cceg e ce eeac e. Acea ea eeaged Dae (1998a & 1998b) eae fae ad dced a deaed d f e Cee f Nfea Sde (CNS). Te e eed Aeing Teoi Moiaion fo Aacking Ciical Inface ded a e eae ee f e dec dac f e gaa a a de. I aeaed be e eeac a e aeg ceae ee dac aac ecfca cca face. Te d ed a ed-ed aac a aebed a aac daabae, cdg 1,874 cde, a cec f cae de, ad a de f e daa aca aa. Te eeac a ceee e f a ce cca face cde a be ec def: Cca face ae e ca e a a c deed aa ec, geace, bc ea ad afe, ec, ad bc cfdece. Te ce a f c e a accdg e c ce c e ae eed (Acea e a., 2007, . ). Te eeac eaed e ed a aca g g be aaced cca e ead f e ea age ad c e f face e e ee. Acea e a. gged e ace f aeg e ea cca face becae f ce eace ee e f eeda fe, ee d ca e gfca ecc ad a ea ac. Te d fe ed a e g ee aae f cca face e ad eed e a g-ae age be eed (2007). Te Acea e a. eeac gaed a fae ad ee bad eac gg, cdg e g caacec, eea eea caacec, ad geea dec-ag edece (2007). Eac eac gg cded a be f eaed 39 dec fac. Te dea f aac ee eed a f Dae (1998a) eae , b a cded ccea cb f Hffa (1993 & 2003), P e a. (2002a), McCc (2003), ad e. Acea e a. (2007) ed dec fac eeaed a g deg, gaaa ce, gaaa dac, g a, degac, ece aaabe e g, ad eaa caabe e g caacec caeg. Acea e a. (2007) defed deg a a g eg, ca, ad ca ea ad ca de. Oe geea fac cded e e g ee f ac, f aac fae, eaa ga f e g, ece ad gaaa egeg, dee e cbe ege ce, ed a e aac d fce cage cce, degada f gee caab, bc ece, ca f e ege a eee eeac, be f caae, cce fae f a aac, ad e e f aca ea (Acea e a., 2007). Te Acea e a. (2007) eeac fd a bbg a e eae aac da, 50% f e face age beg e ad ga ec. T a e fee ageed face, fed b eecc e a 15%, gee/bc ec a 8%, a aa a 5.3%, ad ae face a 3.7% (Acea e a., 2007). If eba ad cae aac ae baced f e aa, c ee a cae b e, e /ga ad gee ee e fee aaced age (Acea e a., 2007). Te d ed a cea dc e e cceg e edece f aca degca g a fa cca face age. Beee 1933 ad 2004, ef ad aa g ee fee egaged face aac, ad ga 40 face beg ageed. T ed f ageg ad ga face a eeca c f a g Ee, La Aeca, e Mdde Ea, ad N Afca. Reg g ee geea e ecfc e cce f face aaced dg ed (Acea e a., 2007). Afe 2004, eg g ade e ge be f cca face aac (Acea e a., 2007), c ccded e acedace f e f ae f e (Ra, 2004). T ceae ceded a ceae e ea f aac (Acea e a., 2007). Te d fced e e ece edec f Ia/Jad g badca a bc aee e e aac face f aegc ea ad e be f aca aac f ad face (Acea e a., 2007). Te ed dceed e daa ggeed Acea e a. (2007) eeac ea a fe aac cca face e U.S. e be caed b eg g (ecfca Ia/Jad g), dec g-g g, ad adca eea g. Te aed fdg f e Acea e a. (2007) d cceg e dec- ag ce eaed e e f g deg decdg c age ee egae. G deg eeged a e d cea fac ag dec. T bea ce eae fdg b Dae (1998a & 1998b), P e a. (2002a), McCc (2003), ad Vcff (2005), ad ae eeaed b Aa ad Reeee (2008), Tf, De, ad Beaa (2010), ad Aed (2018b). Saegc bece ad eaa caab de e e a cdea f age eec. Tee fac de a ea def a g f ea age, aed d a fa eec baed a deea f e ed f cce cdeg age eabe ad ec ec. Te ae 41 f e gaa ad eade ae fa dec ab acc ad age, b e aga a bacd f eea ad eea fac (Acea e a., 2007). Lbc, Ca, ad S (2007) a e fced aac ae dec- ag. Te d, bed b RAND, eaed 14 e aac cdced b a-Qaeda beee 1993 ad 2004. Ug daae, Lbc e a. (2007) cdced a ed-ed aa g a cba f aae ec (caa ae & ecc ) ad aae dec (ee caacec ad aac da), e e f c ee gaed ad f ee. Tee f ee ee beeed eca e a a f aacg ecfc age: Coecion f e ee ce e deed ac cage c Damage f e ee eaa ecc ab d e e g ace Rall ad a ad bed e edae aea f fece Fanchie e g ace b g aac b e g e ca (. 8) Tee ee ee eed aga e fac f eac cae, aee f e b a- Qaeda, ad ee ee. Lbc e a. (2007) deeed a dce de eae a- Qaeda e aac a aca e f age, g a age f aac dae acee dc gaaa bece. Te aac aed a a-Qaeda ade c age ad acca dec baed a aa de a dc e f bece d (Lbc e a., 2007). Sa, Dae (1998a) ad Acea e a. (2007) ed dece e c a e, cece, gaa-bdg, ee caab-dg, ea ea, cace, dea, a, ca, ad adeee. Tee a abdace f eac ecec beee a f ee e, ad a f ee efce e effcac f Lbc e a. (2007) cc. 42 Aa ad Reeee (2008) a dege aac ad deeg a deadg f e g dec fac b fcg ecfca aac ea. T eeac eaed 395 e aac f 1998-2005 ceae e ea f aac fac c a deg, ea c, ae f e g, c f g f e g, ad gaaa e, ce, ad age. Aa ad Reeee (2008) ceced aac daa f e Mea Ie f e Pee f Te (MIPT) Te Kedge Bae (TKB). Te deede aabe a e be f faae eac aac. Te Aa ad Reeee (2008) d fd a g deg a a dca ad ee a edc f ea. T fdg gge a gaaa dec acc ad age, c g fece e be f dea e aac, ee aed b e g deg. Te fdg ce Dae (1998a & 1998b) ad Acea e a. (2007). Lee, gaaa e ad dac, a Aa ad Reeee caed cecede (2008, . 447), a eded ceae ea, c ed eae (Dae, 1998a; McCc, 2003; Acea e a., 2007) a ggeed ee fac feced a g acca ad ageg cce. Ce eae fdg b Dae (1998a) ad Acea e a. (2007), Aa ad Reeee (2008) cd ceae dec g age ae-. Aa ad Reeee (2008) fdg dageed eae b Sa (1998) ad P e a. (2002a & 2002b) a caacec f e c [cdg ee f ece] feced a g ea. Te fe ade e cae a deg ad gaaa fac ae g dca f ea dec edece. Te cc a a g eg a bed f b eg ad e-aa dege ee e e e ee dg aac. Te ae cea 43 ea eeged e eag age ad e-ceced gaa (Aa ad Reeee, 2008). LaFee ad Acea (2009) cdced a ee f e eeac eae e cae f e, b e a a e eeace ecfc g dec fac. T abe fdg f eeac cded e bea a e ac a e fee f g faed ea ae ad ce a decac. T fdg e dea a e de a ea deegae e gee ee ab adeae ec ce. T a deege e eg gee ca fece e fac a ae dda dec, cdg age eec. Cca face a a b f gee ab ca be a aace age f ea. Ade f e ecfc fdg, e eeac a eced eae cc egadg deg, g eade, ad de a ea dec fac be fe ded. H (2010) eaed e g dec g e e f e dff f a. Secfca, H ded e g ad a f e g ad ea fece acca ad ageg dec. Te eeac ed a daae f 823 e g, a dceed e Aeca Mea Ie f e Pee f Te ad e RAND Ca (MIPT-RAND). Te aa fced e e f cde aac a e deede aabe ad a fac ceaed e ed f adg da. H (2010) deeed a de a ggeed cde aac ee agaed a f g (Heba ad e Ta Tge) ad aded b e g g e cec. Te cecede f ee g facaed gaaa eag ad ad f e acc. 44 Te gfcace f e eeac a bade deadg f e g dec fac ae f eec f deede aabe a cded deg, gaaa caa (a fc f gaaa age), ad eea age e g. Tee a a cea beee eg g ad e e e cde aac becae eg g eded ae ge e g f a beef. Pbc a a a fac a g a ee eed e ce ee e eaed ee cebe ce ad eace f c aac, e g e aed f ce ee bec c fece (De La Cae & Sce-Ceca, 2007; H, 2010). H (2010) fd a gaaa cage eee f adg a a gfca fece e ea ad ae, ag eage beee g (. 33). Hee, eac g ece, eaa caab, ad gaaa caac ee gfca fac deeg e ad f cde aac (H, 2010). Tf, De, ad Beaa (2010) fced e eeac e ageg dec ec eaed eeg face aac. Te da ea f Dae (1998a), McCc (2003), Lbc e a. (2007), ad Acea e a. (2007). Te d a ed- ed deg a aca aa f aac daa ad a cae d. Te daae cded e 2,000 dceed aac beee 1998-2008 ced f e Gba Te Daabae (GTD) (START, 2010) ad e Wdde Icde Tacg Se (WITS) (Naa Ce-Te Cee, 2010). Te aa fce aac f e a ege f eeg face, cdg g age eecca e e, b-eecc ba, g-ee ee, eee, ad e a a ce. Te a ege ad e eeced ce f eeac eee e ceaed ad 45 eabe f e eece de, ee d ca dce e ge ea ceece (Tf e a., 2010). Tf e a. (2010) ded e feec f faed ad ccef eeg face aac dee a e deaed deadg f e age eec a. Te aae aa a caed a cae d f a-Qaeda aeg eeg ec age. Te d ccded a ee dd aea be a g degee f cee f e g aac eeg a face. T fdg a baed e be f aac eeg face caed e aac e agee a 2% f gba e beee 1998 ad 2008 (Tf e a., 2010, . 4414)c cadced e a beef. Ge e eceed aegc ae f eeg face ad e eab f e age, e be f aac a a eeced fdg. Tee a a a dae ccea f aac a a be f cePaa, Cba, ad Ia (Tf e a., 2010). Tf e a. (2010) eed a e ca ad ecc cd ced e e f age-cae ece g ae cbed e dae cee aac eeg face ee aca ce. Tf e a. (2010) defed eea fac f e dec ag a g deg, da effec, b, aac feab (ec f e age), ad eea aede. Tee fac f defed f cdea ee ea ce Dae (1998a) ad Acea e a. (2007). Te e f ee dec fac gaed f a a a e e g de cdea beae a aa ac ae aegc dec. Baa, Dae, ad Sdbeg (2014) edcaed e aaca fae e a g eag ece-caed ee, eeca e de 46 ee f a, eb a be f a a ae (. 65). Baa e a. (2014) ggeed a ee ae ca be aed e aa f e g bee dead g bea. T aaca fae a b a eae (Baa, Ee & Sdbeg, 2001) ag ca de e (Tafe, 1978) e aa f e g, g g/g dac ea bea. Te ca de e fda ae a adcaed dda e g dead e ca f e ebe, ae e ae f c ebe, ad eeece a age f e eaed e b-dc f ebe. Te afac f g acceace ad g e a deg a f ac. T ee f de ad e acaed dac ae bed e g ad beed a e g ee. Hece, e g ea eg (g), ce a (g), ad aaga f eceed eee (g), a e a eac e, e eea ee, ad e aaabe ece, ae dec ca bece (Baa e a., 2014). Te Baa e a. (2014) aaca ae cde e a-ce ea, ad ae ce, ed gd [ece], ad caege ad ee eac a g ad eee (. 70). Pa ae ef g dda e ad afegad e e g, e eae beg a-ae . Sae ad ce e a a f e d, b e ae gfcace a e g dac ad a ee a acceabe bea. Te eac bea ed be a e eee. I e d, cde f cdc, e f egagee, ad acg accdace e dege ad ce f e g bece ae f (Baa e a., 2014, . 77). Te cce f ad ae ceaed a cce f caege ad 47 ee, c ae aaca ae (Baa e a., 2014). Te caege ad ee cce ae a e g egage a dage f a, eee, ad e bc a age. T a de acceed e f e ace a a f f cca, ee ac ed eage eded adece (Je, 1974; Cea, 1981; Dae, 1998; Cee, 2002; Aa e a., 2009). Baa e a. caacea f dage ae e f f ac b eee ad a a ae eceed a caege e g ad, f e ae f aag , dead a ee (ac) ad ce ea. T bac-ad-f eagg aed b e ca, ca, ad ca ce f e ecfc cfc (2014, . 72). Tageg dec ca be eed a eae f caege ad ee cca da ac. Te a f e aaca ae (ed gd) ca be eed a a ed f ece a cbe e g cce ee a e agbe cd c a . G cee f ee ece a ee a e ga ae . A e g ga ad, ea, ege, e a ad eee ae ded accdg. Ufae, ee a eege ga eee e g e (Baa e a., 2014). Te ed gd cce c e aced a Dae (1998a) Acea e a. (2007) e cdeg eaa caabe ece a a fac f dec. Hee, a aae ca be da beee ee eaed e, ag Baa e a. (2014) de ffe ecfc eca f e eeca fae. Aed (2018a & 2018b) cdced de a eae e e f e g deg ag acca ad ageg dec. Aed a ade bea cceg e e f e ee a a dec fac e cce f acc a e a e e f ece a a gag fac dec-ag. B de ed e Ue f 48 Maad Gba Te Daabae (GTD) eab a g daae. Te eeac eed e 25,000 e aac beee 1970-2013, g aae 1,000 e g caeged b e fg degca abe: Naa-Seaa Reg Rg-Wg Lef-Wg Naa-Seaa/Reg (cba) Naa-Seaa/Lef-Wg (cba) Eea Te acca cce ee ed a bbg, aed aa, acg, bacadg, aaa, ad dag. Te age ee caeged a ca, ca, ec, be, a g, ad face. Te de eed be cea beee e a degca gg ad e ed acc ad age, eece. Sce e deede aabe ee ba, e eeac cacaed e aca bab, eeed a a a, a e aabe a ea e (Aed, 2018b, . 383). Aed a eaed ageg dec caged e e. Aed eeac ccded a ca ad ec age ee be ceag ce b a g e e e, eea ee a a dece e cce f ca, be, ad face age (2018b, . 387). Ta ad, e cba f aa-eaa/ef-g g ad e ge edced bab f aacg face age (2018b, . 386). Te eeac deaed a age eec cce aed ac e degca cafca. Reg g geea efeed ca, ec, ad a age, g- g ad aa/eaa g efeed ca age, ad eea g ce be age. W eec acca dec, eg g eded e bbg ad aed aa, ad aac eded be e dcae. Lef-g g faed bacadg 49 ad dag, ad g-g g ee e ac e ece aac g aaa a e acc f cce. Ode ad e eabed g eded cdc e dcae aac gae ae ad ee e e e bb, aed aa, ad dag. Aac cdced dg e ee age a eeed be geea e dcae ad e e e bbg. Iee-age cde a a a deceae aed aa b a ceae dag (Aed, 2018a). Aed de b de eabed deg a a dg fce (2018a, . 89 & 2018b, . 380) e g dec-ag. Te eeac a eabed a beee deg, eaa caab, ece, ad gaaa age a ea fac edc a g efeece f acc ad age. G, Mace, Ce, e a. (2018) dced a cd be caaceed a a aae eegca d a eaed 99 e abgae. Te d eed a e egaged ae f ag ad dec-ag e eecg age f aac. Tee ae cded c-beef -ead cdea, c e cea ca ac. T c-beef aa cded a aee f e ee f ec ec f e age. Te 2018 eeac egeed e ae e ce a aee a gfca dec fac age eec. Mace & G (2019) fed e 2018 eeac a g aae d a eaed 150 e aac cdced b ebe f e Pa I Rebca A (PIRA). Te d a a a eae aa ae f age eec ad deee f dace ad e gegaca eea ded e fece e c dec. 50 Te Mace & G (2019) eeac fdg ed e e a g ae dcee cce baed ca e age. Te e aa e ad ed e, b a geea ed a gegac caacec a facae bc ge ad ege f e age ae e fece e ageg dec. I eec, e ed beae c e cea ca. I aca, e dace ea age f a e g aea f ea ed a a ea e dec fac (Tec, F & G, 2016; G, Hga, & Ce, 2017; Mace & G, 2019). Sebe & Wefed (2020) dced a aae ca d f e dec-ag aace baed a aa f e g bece. Secfca, e eeac cae e bece f a-Qaeda, e Iac Sae f Ia ad e Lea (ISIL), ad Heba. Te da e eeac, ee e g ad eece f ee e g ae cbed e eca f ee def ad ce e bece (Sebe & Wefed, 2020, . 2) f eac e g ad dee a eac f e bece (Keee & Wefed, 2010; Sebe, Wefed & J, 2016). Te eeac a gfcace e ce a ae eaca def (ad eeb acae) e ac c g be aace e e g ad ee e eea (Sebe & Wefed, 2020, . 13). T bea, f ce, ae e be aa ac e ee, eecg age baed a eac f bece, c Sebe & Wefed af aegic, fndamenal, o mean bece (2020, . 2). Te a aeaa f e Sebe & Wefed a g a degca ea ca dee dffee gaaa bece, eeb g 51 dffeg acc ad aacg dffee age. Teefe, e aeg dead dec ad edc bea, g d be aaed deede. T e a aae ca f edcg c g g eec eecc face a a egae age. 2.3 Snhei of Deciion Inflence A e f e ecedg cce ca be ged Acea e a. (2007) ee caege f dec-ag fece, c ae defed a f: Pcgca Scgca Idegca Iea Ogaaa Eea Pecea Eac f ee fece ca be fe ded be f fac a ae beeed ae dec. Tee ee cee ageee ab e ad f eac fece caeg b eca daa a f e. Te ae eeed f cdea ad aa baed e c e eae. T e f adde cgca ad cgca fece becae e bd f ee aea ca be ged dee acg ad eca edece f ad. Ma ca ae ce dceded e dced e ace. Ee ag e ab eca cgca ad cgca fece, e d e be ea ee g bc c ad ae eefe f aga eeace a ea dec aa de. Te eag fe fece be eeed e dea ce c f e eeac ee e c ad e ea ceae ce-e aege g c ae. Ogag e a ee f e eae e g dec- 52 ag ae e f a be a cceae e eeac. Hee, e ee fece ceae a e ad effece a eaae ad dead e aea. Te fece ae a baed e aac ae b Dae (1998a) ad Acea e a. (2007). 2.3.1 Pchological Inflence Sca ce ee ea ee ab e a baed cgca fece. Tee cded ee a e ffe f eee cage, ea dde, ad acc edece ee a e ae aed b bcc cgca fece a afe a e-o-faco gc. Ma f ee ee ae bee dced degaded agee e e, e e ae eea ee becae f e ea cb cea g. Pcgca fece e a a e ag dec-ag, b e eae gge a ee fece ee cee ea a e dec edc fe dec (P, Rb & Sa, 2002a). Te eeace f ee fac a ea deadg f dec ag a ae e ea f ea aee, b e cbed e ea ad gaaa cdea (Vcff, 2005). I ea cea e d eaae aac f e deee ad ada f bc c gae e ea f e ac. Terrorist Profile Reeace ade ea eff def a aca e g, a dda a ga ea a e f cece a a d ede e dda egage ca ece. T g eaaed f e abe ae f e acc ad e ece a e ece a dcae. T ed a a 53 a ee aged ea a dged e e f e ac, ad ea aed a e dec eec ece ead f e -e ca aeae. Teefe, e gc ggeed a defca f e aged a cd edc e ed f e ac. Sca ae a abaded ae def a e fe a e f ea a a ge edc f bea (Cad, 1981; Feac, 1982; Se, 1998; Vcff, 2005). Cea (2000) efeced dea, Neeee, aa f e d a ea fac acc f e bea (. 409). Ee P (1990), aed eea cgca baed eaa f e, eeced e f a e de b ca dg e bea. Psychopathological Theory Te cagca e eea ca a e dda ffeg f e f f a d egage e. Cad (1981) dageed ee, dg a e ece f a ea b a, g e Aeca Pcac Aca def f A I ad A II dde ad decbg dda a eb c. Tee dda ee ca dg g f g ce g bea becae f e cac fece (Cad, 1981). Ce (1977 & 1978) ad Pece (1977) ee ea e f e, e cae ec decbg e a ca. Ce (1977 & 1978) ad Pece (1977) acaed e ac cgca cd a b ccece. Cad (1981), Vcff (2005), ad a e ca efed age de e ac f ced de g eca daa f dec cca bea. Te a ed e eece f aecda cae ee e e aeaed be cadced. 54 Narcissism-aggression T e ae a e ce f agge ad b e ece a e aff e g cece eg (R, 1996; Vcff, 2005). McCc (2003) eaed, Ac f e, b ee, ae fe (cc) aed b acc (. 492). T f e cea e f acc-agge e, P (1990) ad Peae (1991), ced K (1983) cgca ee e e f e ac-agge e. Peae (1991), aca, aged a e eb acc a. A ea ca f e e, Ga Mf (1970), baed e e ac f ac eeac cdced ebe f a eaa-Ma g ed Qebec. Mf (1970) ageed a e ce daed acc ea a. Vcff (2005) ccded a ee a a ac f edece e acc-agge e, ad e Se (1998) beed a e e ac f ea ad edec f ca a ee, fac, ce f a acc ea. B eeace ed f g e e a a edc f e bea. Hee aga, cgca ee ac a ccg bd f edece ce cec e ece a ecfc cgca a e f a, ad e ee ae e edce ae f ecfc dec-ag. Psycho-Logic Theory Te cea ee f e a gca g ad cgca ea ae a ece. Oe ca ae dec dged be gca e de e fece f e c be f cgca fac. P (1990) dced e e cho- logic ad eeed e a a caege Cea (1990) f aegc cce: 55 Rae, age a ca e ae de c ac f ece a a ceece f cgca fce ad a e eca c-gc cced aae ac e ae cgca ceed c (. 25). Te e a gca dec ae baed a cgca ded e f ea, a McCc (2003) efe a cge ad affece d (. 490). I ca be aged a e accae f e aegc cce e becae e dec f b baed cg -aa eag, becae baed b-cc fce (McCc, 2003). McCc eea e f e ece e ecea fece caeg (Acea e a., 2007). P (1990) aged a c-gc a f baed ea cce eeced f a age f eceed aeae (. 25). He ade cea a e a decbg dda a ffeed f e dee cag, b ead, e aded a de baed a fed ad ded ea ee e cd gca edece a ed e. T eee e f cfa ba efce e gc f e dec (P, 1990). Oe be f ea d, a ed b P (1990), aaa e, ee e d ae a aad dea f eec. P (1990) aged a eceed eec b a eea ee aca cfc e e ee, eg f e ece f e eae ad bee ea g. P (1990) decbed e ee f a a ec f e gge a eea ee, c e caed eeaa (. 27). Eeaa bece e aae f aacg ce c, eeeg a ee f e ee e ee de. Mc e e cgca ee f e, ee a ac f eca daa P , ad dda cg a adeae eaed e edced cde f ece. 56 McCc (2003) decbed cgca fae f e e f dec- ag a e dda cg f e g ebe. Tee fae dde ag e e f a ce ac ae ee cgca fac. Eac f ee fae ca be fe be d be f cce fac ad g cee. 2.3.2 Sociological Inflence Sca ae eeed eee ee a aa f cgca fece, cdg ecc a, ca e, edcaa a, ca , ea ee ece, ad ac f ca ab. Lae ad Wa (2018) ffeed ac a-Qaeda eade a a eae f ee cgca beef ab e, e, ad ac f edca cbg e ca be ded. A-Qaeda ebe cded 75% a cae f dde- e-ca bacgd ad 63% e cege aedace (Lae ad Wa, 2018, . 125). Ma f ee ebe ad eaed cege degee. Lae ad Wa (2018) a ed e 20 f e d e ce ad ed a e ece Afgaa ad eeeced a aecabe e ac. Cea (2011) a dced a f ee c-ecc fece a ag e cea e ac. Fe f ee c-ecc ee ae ffce eca edece e ad, ad ae ed ae ce-e c. Relative Deprivation Theory Reae dea ca be geea ded a a ac f ece, cdg e ecea f e eace f fe ad e a de cf ee cee ae bece acced e aaab. Te eeca f e aaab f ee ece ca be eae a e e, ad eeca bece (McCc, 2003). Tee 57 ae bee adaced e e ea a gge dda ecaae ee ece de eceed ca ad ecc ee. Reae dea eeged a e da e ag a ca. Se f e eae eeac cae f Rca & Rca (1966) b, Relaie Deiaion and Social Jice: A Sd of Aide o Social Ineali in Tenieh-Cen Biain , b ca f e de fe ce G, defed eae dea a ac ece f dceac beee e ae eeca ad e ae caabe (1970, . 24). G ed a cea beee e ee f e dea ad e ed f ad e f ca dde ad ece (1970). Te da f ece beee a a g ca acce ad a c eeced, a e a e da beee e-ca ad deca, ca ae e ece f e ad ae e ac (Vcff, 2005). Ug e eae dea e, e a ce f g, e eeca, ad ceag fa (Mgadda, 2006, . 23). Te edece gge a e ce f a bacgd a cde g ee f edca, ef acce ece, ad cfabe ecc cd e cae (Cea, 1981; Vcff, 2005; Mgadda, 2006). A ee f dea be bece, eg f e ecea d ae dda ee a. Te e de ad g aa. Reae dea ca ea a ac f e, ad e cae f eae dea, e ece agee abe (Vcff, 2005). Frustration-aggression A G (1970) ded, eae dea eded ead a cgca ee acaed e e de, c a bee caed fa-agge e (G, 1970; Mag, 1977; P, 1990). Mgadda (2006) a e f fa- 58 agge, b a a ea age f a fe ecaa ece, c becae e gd f f acae e de. G a f fa ece e dec a Mgadda. Neeee, a ca a ee ee a g degee f dafac ad fa ecaae agge aca ac f ece (Cea, 1981; Lae, 1987; R, 1996; McCc, 2003; Vcff, 2005). Tee ae eae f e g egaged ece ee cec eae dea eadg fa ad agge a caed (Cea, 1981; Lae, 1987). Fa-agge ad ee Mgadda (2006) e aced acae de ae e dec acaed e adcaa f dda e ae a e ecfc dec f e g. T, e fa-agge e fa f ea e dec, ee dda cece. Oppression Theory T e a ge f e beef a e ac ee aed b e. Te Cabdge Dca defe e a a a c ee ae geed a fa ad ce a ad eeed f ag e ad feed (://dca.cabdge.g//dca/eg/e ). Tg a ea bece e, e, a e d c dead , a cbe e adcaa f g ad bee ecaa e, b cce fa f ea dec ecfc age eec acc. Vcff (2005) ad, ac fe ce e ce f e eae b gee a b e f de, dg, ec, ad feed a e e f e g a e g (. 20). Vcff (2005) acedged a e baed e ecea ea f e eed ad dffc, f be, af. 59 I e cae, e aac ae ae ace decace c a e Ued Sae ad Wee Ee, e a eee ege, e ab abe. Tee ace ad cadc a geea e a e ae e (Cea, 1981). Vcff acedged a eae eca edece aaabe g e c-ced e a e ece de e bea f e (2005, . 21). Sa e ae Sa (1991) deega e, c aed a e ece aed b a ee f deega b eee. Vcff (2005) a dceded ab/acac ad a-eege ee g a age. Social Identity Theory We e g/g dac eeed b Baa, Dae & Sdbeg (2014) ffe e deee deadg ad aa f e g a, ee e ee bee edc ecfc dec eaed acc ad age eec. Te aaca ae e eeed ae e edce ea a e ee. A a eae, Baa e a. (2014) dced ae ad ce, c e a f e eg ee e g feae. Te e cce f caege ad ee. B e ae ed a f aa f e g ad e dec (Baa e a., 2014). Wee e e a cgca ce a e cae f ac a a cgca/ca fce, ee a be a acca aca ee. Te cce ee adde e e beee e dce. Sae ad /caege ad ee ca be aed ea-d ee a cbe a deadg f dec- ag. F eae, a cbe ege g ae a ce f ac a be g e g, c cd ga a edg ee f e g. Baa e a. 60 efe ee a aaca ae (2014, . 67-82) ad ae e a e ae ae be aed aa ad e c a f f a eff. T ca be ee a a egae fac aeg dec-ag, ag dffc af. 2.3.3 Inmenal Inflence A gfca bd f eae a bee deed e d f e a a ea f eeg ca, aegc, acca, gca bece (Dae, 1998a; McCc, 2003; Acea e a., 2007; Keee & Wefed, 2010; Sebe, Wefed & J, 2016; Sebe & Wefed, 2020). A ea aac ae a e g ae aa cce ee c bece (Cea, 1981). Te dec ecaae adca ad ee bea e ece cd be ee a a gca cce ff ca a a aea aceabe b e ea. Cea (1990) efeed e a a da f cece aa (. 8). Se eaed a g cece efeece ae, e g eec e (ece) a a ce f ac f a age f be cce (Cea, 1990, . 8). T e a ee a dd ca ad cgca fece, c caacee dec a a e f a ee ca cd cgca affc. Ccea dace geeaed e e ca ea e ad aa cce e ee eee ad ad ae f e ece. Cea eaed aae cadc, Paadca e, c aea aa ad edcabe de be effece, a ee aa aeg, cacaed e f edcabe c ad beef (Cea- Hc, 1972, . 394). Fe, cd be ee a e ecfc dec ab acc age eec ca be ade g ea e (Dae, 1998; Acea e a., 2007; Lbc, Ca, & 61 S, 2007; Tf, De, ad Beaa, 2010; Aed, 2018a & 2018b). I a cae, aeae cce f ac ae aaed ad dcaded fa f e ae dec a bee e g ga (McCc, 2003). Ta a aa dec ae ade eec eea fac (McCc, 2003). Strategic Choice Theory Cea (1990), a ea ad eadg adcae f e, faed e g dec-ag a a aegc cce fc. He aa g eea ad ea a e f aa ad gca dec cee ae a acceg ee baed a cgca a. Cea (1990) ed a gaa ae a a dge f e effecee f a aege e ba f bea ad eeece cbed degca a (. 8). Cea (1990) a ded e a e ece a eac e ca ce. Cea (1981) ad, We aac e a a f f ca bea eg f e debeae cce f a baca aa ac, e e gaa (. 380). Hffa (2017) efeed e dec a eedaed ad caef aed (. 242). Lae (1977) ad a eac e ea e caef ag, eebg e aff f a a caag (. 84). Hee, a ca ca aga a e-eace ee a ea e ece a a aa ac deae b gca ac e a e f cge bece. Baa e a. (2001) ed a aegc cce e dbed ef deadg gaaa dec ag ad b ee eg ea, e fe (f a) b-ae ac g egage e gge e f aegc e cce (. 62 6). Ge e be f aegc cce a a dec fac, eaabe cde e aa f fece de f deadg e dec. Tee ae e ace e aac ae e eee ad ea de. Hee, cea a g fe eec acc ad age fe e aegc bece (Dae, 1998a; McCc, 2003; Acea e a., 2007). Ae edece a bee eeed a g ae aee edg aac age a fe e g aegc a (Lbc e a., 2007; Aed, 2018). T dea ec aed e e g g (Lae, 2006; Tf, De, ad Beaa, 2010). Dae (1998a) caef dffeeae aegc bece f e g ca ga. Saeg ea a ea aa f e adece (e.g., gee ffca, e bc, a g, ec.) e a cgca eac. Saeg, ag g-e, ca cage e e ada cagg cd, b e g ca ga geea d cage (Dae, 1998a). Dae (1998a) bed e cce f Cea (1990) f aege: Thea Eliminaion Tageg dda g a ee a ea Compliance Fcg eee cage c g cgca fea. Dioienaion Db ab ad de, g a ee f ca ce Aiion Wea d e deea ad ce f eee. Poocaion Pe eeac ee eceed e Adeiemen See bc ad ga a ee f e Endoemen Gae ad ec e ebe (. 39) Lbc e a. (2007) aed ee aege d f: Coecion Cece cage gee bea c g e cea f caae ad e g c. Damage Redce e ab f gee ad e eee eee e e g ace. Rall Ra f e g ga ad ec e ebe. Fanchie Ie aac e eg f ee e g eae. 63 M ca a aed a aegc cce fae ad a aa fac f dec. Tage a fee ffeed a ace eaa ece eae ea ea e g (Dae, 1998a; McCc, 2003; De La Cae & Sce-Ceca, 2007; Lae, 2018). I cae ee age ae ce f e bc ae, e g aegc ga ee eed b ceag cgca ac ad g eac beefca e g a. Sebe & Wefed (2020) ced e bece ee caege f eacca gg: Saegic, Fndamenal, ad Mean . W fae, dda g ee aaed, ad a f e bece cd a be cafed g Lbc e a. (2007) eg a a. Te eacca cg f bece e e ee f aa dead e g dec ad ea edc bea (Keee & Wefed, 2010; Sebe, Wefed & J, 2016; Sebe & Wefed, 2020). Te eae e a e eec f age, cca face ad ee, gea feced b a e g bece, egade f e caege e. 2.3.4 Ideological Inflence Te g deg a ce cded a a gfca fac dec- ag ad age eec. Ideg a de acceed e eae a a fac fecg a age f e g dec (R, 1993; Dae, 1998b; P, Rb & Sa, 2002a; McCc, 2003, Acea e a., 2007; Aa & Reeee, 2008; Tf, De & Beaa, 2010; Aed, 2018a/2018b). M e de ca ageed a deg ae g dec, ad cea ad bee beed beee e (P, Rb & 64 Sa, 2002a/2002b; Acea e a., 2007; Aed, 2018). P e a. (2002a) caed deg e f e ce ce f g dca (. 84). Dae (1998a) defed deg a e beef, ae, ce, ad bece ee -defed e b c a g defe dce ca de ad a ad fe ac (. 16). Ideg de a fdaa de f e g, cdg c age ae egae ad be e aca eage. Ma f e degca caege ga eeed b Dae (1998a) ca be cbed a ae e f e bad defed caege a e a ae de (Acea e a., 2007; Aed, 2018a/2018b). Pca, dege ca be cafed a E-Naa/Seaa, Lef-g, Rg-g, Reg, ad Sge-Ie/Eea, e cba f ee beef. Tee bad cafca ca be fe bdded, a e Acea e a. (2007) d, ee Ia/Jad g ee gged f e geea eg cafca. I e cae, e cafca ca be cbed ee g fa e a e caeg (Aed, 2018b). Cea ee fd beee deg ad e cce f acc ad age eea de (Acea e a., 2007; Aa & Reeee, 2008; Tf, De & Beaa, 2010; Aed, 2018a/2018b). Tage eec a gfca ed deg. F eae, eg g ee fd ae a geae bab f aac aga f age a e degca g (Aa, Reeee, Ade, e a., 2009). 2.3.5 Oganiaional Inflence A a bd f eae a bee deed e fece f gaaa dac f e g dec-ag. T fae eae dec baed gaaa e, age, eade, ce, eaa caab f e g, ad e dac (Dae, 1998a; P, 2002a; McCc, 2003; Acea e a., 2007; Aa & Reeee, 2008). T 65 ca a be eaed gaaa caacec c a ee g ae e eag f e g, e ge ad e ecge, ad e eac e ee ad ca eda (Aa & Reeee, 2008; H, 2010; Aed, 2018a). Tee a e ce ad e a age e gaa (e ebe) ae a geae caac ca a bade age f ea (Dae, 1998a; Acea e a., 2007). Lage g geea ad geae eaa caab, aded ecg e ead, eed e g (fg aace), deaed geae ea, ad ad a geae e ad eeaed aac f f age (Acea e a., 2007; Aa & Reeee, 2008; Aa, Reeee, Ade, e a., 2009; H, 2010). Ogaaa fecce efe a e g age f a. T a ge feced b a ee eeed b e ee, cdg e ec ee (McCc, 2003). I e cae, a fd a dg eae age f deee, aac ee geea aed e eac, e e ae g ae eaed e acc, aced geae caabe, ad deeed e e f a f aac (Dae, 1998a; Acea e a., 2007). Te f a ce mae e-defed. Hffa & McCc (2004) geea fd a e g becae e e e e ad ed f a f defg ecfc age f aegc bece ece f ae. Ma a cd ae a g cea beee e gaaa fecce ad dec eaed acc ad age, cdg dec c a aacg f age (Acea e a., 2007; Aa & Reeee, 2008; Aa, Reeee, Ade, e a., 2009), ag H (2010) fd a gaaa age a a fac e ad f ecg. 66 Ogaaa eade ad ce ee gged e eae a e e f eade, degee f faa ad -d cca, ad ee g fed a ceaed dbed gaaa deg (Dae, 1998a; Acea e a., 2007). Se g ae a e beacac aac a eacca ce, ceaed ce eade, ad cad-ad-c , e e eded be dbed e e affaed ce ag e a dec ad aac ag. I e cae, e affa cded deag degca ce ad aac edge e aac b affaed fe. Udeadg a g gaaa ce ca de a ce ab dec ae ade ad age ae eeced (Dae, 1998a; Acea e a., 2007), g e edece a cea cce egadg e cea beee dec ad gaaa eade ad ca eee. Caab ega e dec-ag ce f e g (Aed, 2018b, . 381). Tee a geea ageee e eae a eaa caabe eed a ae cca dec fac f age eec (Dae, 1998a; McCc, 2003; Acea e a., 2007; Aa & Reeee, 2008; Aa, Reeee, Ade, e a., 2009). Oeaa caabe cded e a f eade, acce ee, aaab f ea, faca ece, ecca ceece, ad e ab ea f a cce fae ad ae f e e (Dae, 1998a; McCc, 2003; Acea e a., 2007). Tecg ad ad ecca - ae eeged a cea caabe a fece dec (Acea e a., 2007; H, 2010). Acea e a. (2007) fced ece a dec fac, cdg e ca, faca, ad gca ece ecea cdc cca face aac. Dae (1998a) dec f caabe 67 a e geea caaceed a ab ca e ea (. 73). Oeaa caab ad aea ece de a ea f aac ad de e fed f ea age a g a cde. Dae (1998a) ad Acea e a. (2007) cdeed e ad c dec fac eaed e g dac, cdg a aag ecec ad e eece abece f g. Tee fac fece e a f c eade a e e g ebe cf ad deae ea dcaed b eade a ea age eade cce ad ae (Sa, 1998; P, Rb & Sa, 2002a). Tee a aecabe edece e e f ee fac dec-ag. 2.3.6 Eenal Inflence Fac egaded a eea e g ca cde ca ce a ccace (aeae), age bc gfcace, eea ac eac, eea , e ec a, ad e ea aca f e age be aaced (Acea e a., 2007; Aa & Reeee, 2008; Aa, Reeee, Ade, e a., 2009). Te ca ce cde e edec f e g e e-eg e f beef baed eceed ad eec dae f aac ad aca age baed ca ecedece. I a cae, g e aea dae f gfca c bae, ace, ad e ee de dec (Dae, 1998a; Acea e a., 2007). Tage eec a ea feced b e degee f ca ec ded a aca age (G, Mace, Ce, e a., 2018), ee a age a ca ca, a e, a g f ee (Aa, Reeee, Ade, e a., 2009). Cdeg e de age f ea age, cdg e ee age cd f ee gae, cca face face ad ee, ad ca fge, be ec ee 68 ea age a f e e (Dae, 1998a). T fac ee e g a cce beee e-eced age ad e e a ec. Te eaa c ad ecaae a eec f e e-eced age. Te dec eec a aca age deed e eceed ae f e age, e g eace, ad e eaa caab ece ec cee (Dae, 1998a; Acea e a., 2007; G, Mace, Ce e a., 2018), c ca cde aed gad, CCTV caea, ca bae, ad ced acce ad f e ca (G, Mace, Ce, e a., 2018). T ca a be a ee f e ea ce-e ec ee deged deec ad cae e g, ee aac, ad gae e daage. Ma gee ae eed eace, egece gaeg, cg, ca ega caabe, ad age adeg. Te ec ee ce ae ed b ece ad e f f gee ee e ae eaced. I bea decace, ee ee e c bee ad ae e feed f ee, e ec ee ca be ea eaed, c de eaa adaage f e g. Me aaa ege ee ee ae acced e eece f aed a, ca cec, ad defca dce eee, de a e eee e f caege f e ea. Hee, eee ege a egage e ad dec g ca ecage aac a a eac e (Acea e a., 2007). Neeee, ee ea a dea f edece efe e geea ec ee a a dec fac (Acea e a., 2007). Saa ce aa de ae c b f deadg e g eec age f aac. Reeac fdg e e a g ae dcee cce baed ca e age ad gegac caacec a 69 facae bc ge ad ege f e age. I eec, e ed beae c e cea ca. I aca, e dace f ea age f a e g aea f ea ed a a ea e dec fac (Tec, F & G, 2016; G, Hga, & Ce, 2017; Mace & G, 2019). 2.3.7 Pecepal Inflence A e g ecea fe a a dec fac efe e ece ad bae ab e eea ee, e g caabe, e ae f e age, ad e ea ec ee (Dae, 1998a; McCc, 2003; Acea e a., 2007). Tee ece fece dec e degee a e ca ca dec ebde e egad f bece ea (P, Rb & Sa, 2002a; Vcff, 2005). Pecea fe ca ead caca ad faed ae aga age ee e g deeed a e-faed e f e caabe ee e age a e adeed a a f beeed (Acea e a., 2007). Te cee e a g g ad age ee e fed beef ab ec eae ed a ceae aac. Te ab deec ecea fe caegg becae ee e aa ae a dee deadg f e g ece, edce, ad ace. Qafg ee ece ee e caegg (Acea e a., 2007). 2.4 Smma Cdeg e eae bead ad de, e e f eae cec eeed a gfca caege. Tg e eae ee ce, a g ad aed f dec fac eeged f cdea. Ee afe cdag ee fac a ae e baed c ee, e a e bed a cd be ea eed 70 eeac. T caege a cded b e ad ace ca. Te f ea dec fac geaed f e eae cded Tabe 1 be: Li of Deciion Faco fom he Lieae Beaa dca f e Acce Tage Caege-Ree Fac Age f e/ac Cge D Fac Aee f ad e Ca cfc Cec f ege Ce a g Ce Ce ad Se Cf-eeg edece Eea Ideg Cca face caacec E-Naa/Seaa Ideg Ca ee Eea fece ad aa Face Bdg G degac Hca ed ce f ece G e eeece ece Ifc Daage G ad/ aa Ie f deega Hca/Ca Ma b ad a-ece ab Hca ee Ogaaa Caab Ieg ce Ogaaa dec-ag e Ke ac affecg g Ogaaa fae Leade ea/caacec Ogaaa fecce a Lef-Wg/Ma Ideg Ogaaa cee Led Gd Fac Ogaaa Se/Sce/Age Nac-Agge Fac Ogaaa ce Oeaa caabe Peceed Caab Oe caege Peceed R/Vae Ogaaa dac Pecea fe Pca ece Pca/Saegc Pc-Lgc Fac Pca, ecc, ad ca ab Reae Dea Fac Pcgca ge ad e Reg/Ia-Jad Ideg Ra S Rg-Wg Ideg Rea eea ac Seca-Ua Ideg Sec Ee Sec ee See f a/eed f eege Sae-H Fac See f e ea Sca Ide Fac Saegc Fae Te f Tage Lca/Hadeg Ve eade - Leade e Tggeg ee Tabe 1. L f Dec Fac f e Leae 71 Te f eea fac ad be ded a a abe e f deede aabe e e de ed . T da ce ef eed a g ea-aa edg, c ed Cae 3 f . 72 Chape 3: Mehodolog 3.1 Inodcion T cae decbe e eeac ed ed cec, ee, cde, ad aae e aac daa bee dead ad af e ed a b-ae ea- ac eec eecc e face a a age f a ca aac. T cea ee cce e aacee f eecc e face a a egae ad ef age f aac. Hee, ee ed a deae a abe de ae e ab b-ae g ae dec eaed cg acc ad age eec e geea. Te eeac a caed f e START-GTD e aac daa be aaed g aca ed, dg e feec f e aac e face. Te ded aac ageg eecc face eed a e deede aabe e a aa. Te deede aabe (dec fac) ee defed f e eae ad cded e daae cdc e f aa. Te caege f g aac a e cdeabe e f dec fac a eeged f e eae ee Cae 2. Tee ee a dec fac a cd ea fece e eec f a aca age aae a f e. Fee, dec acce e e g eee ad deaed fa ab eac age, e f e dec fac ee ee dffc def , e cae, abe. Te ebe aac fg g c a ae f fac a dee a g eeac ce f c b eg f , eca , ad eeac. T e ge a eaae ad dc eeac ed f aag ad eg e eae. T ea e eed e ea eeac ed ad a 73 cca e aca aa. Te ed f aag e eae cd a ee a a cb acce ad acadec d. T cae dded ee a ec, c cde dc, a e- aee f e eeac e, e ce f daa cec, ea aa f fac defed e eae, eeac f e ecfc g ebe f aac f eecc face f e ed de ee, cdg e daa, e eeac ed ed aae e START-GTD daa ad dec fece (Pa Medg Qaae Aa), ad a a f e cee eeac de a ce f daga. Te ea edg ec e e eae ee a eed ad decbe e eeac ed deeed dee ad d deede aabe (Beded Mea-Aa f Leae). Te e f e g caacec ec eea e fa a aaed f a 71 e g ed e aac. T ec decbe fa a ceced f eea ce ad decbe e deg, eaa ece, ad e caacec f eac g. T f e eeac e fdaa ecea cde eac aac e daae. Te a edg ec e e aca eeac ed ed aae ad af e START-GTD ae daa (Qaae Aa). T ec a decbe e ed ed f babc aa ad e deee f a ea edce de (Pbabc Aa). T fa aae aa de e b edce cea ad edc e eaed bab a a aca e g d eec eecc face a a age f aac. 74 3.2 Reeach Qeion A aed e dc, e eeac e eed e ce ae a f: 1) H e e ea f a ca aac e U.S. eecc e gd b a b- ae ea-ac? 2) Wa ae e eea gaaa ad eea dec fac a fece e eec f eecc face a a aac age b a b-ae e g? 3) H ca c a e f dec fac be afed? 4) Wa e ed a a aca ea-ac ce eecc face a a age f aac? Te a f e eeac e, a ed Cae 1, af e ed a a ea-ac eec eecc face a a aac age f ag a aa f e ea cce. 3.3 Daa Collecion Te daa ae ed aca aa c f 521 e aac aga eecc face ag 19 cee ea f Jaa 1, 2000, g Decebe 31, 2018. Te 521 aac a ce e ae f aa ee ced b 71 dffee b-ae g 38 dffee ce caed 10 dc eg f e d, cdg N Aeca, Wee Ee, e Mdde Ea & Lea, N Afca, Cea Aa, Sea Aa, S Aeca, Eae Ee, Sb-Saaa Afca, ad S Aa. Te aa daae a geaed f a c e eee daabae f aac. Te daa ee ceced f e Gba Te Daabae (GTD), a bc aaabe daabae aaged b e Ue f Maad a e Naa C f e Sd f Te ad Ree Te (START). Te daabae caag ad dea e aac dde f e begg f 1970 g e ed f 2018 (49 cee ea f daa), cdg a a daa a f 192,211 aac. 75 START-GTD e age ad ce daabae f e aac ce aaabe a a e-ce bca. Te daa e dceed aac ee ceced ad eed f e ce ce 1970. Te daa ce egaed e daabae cded a bc aaabe, cafed, ad e-ce aea, e eda ace, ad eecc ace. Te ga daae a aebed beee 1970-1997 b e Pe Gba Iegece Sece (PGIS), a ae egece ca a ded aee f cae cdcg be eea. I 2001, e Ue f Maad eeace e f e daa ad dged e ade ecd (LaFee, Dga, e a., 2006). Oe e ea, START-GTD a ecced e eg daabae ee dffeece ad ceae e accac f e daa, cdg e Ieaa Te: Abe f Te Ee (ITERATE) daae ad Te Kedge Bae (TKB), ed b e Naa Mea Ie f e Pee f Te (MIPT). TKB a a cba f e RAND Te Cg 19681997 ad e RAND Te Icde daabae (19982009) ad a ce be e eae a e RAND-MIPT e daabae (LaFee & Dga, 2009). Te a daae be egaed START-GTD a 2012 ad a a e Wdde Icde Tacg Se (WITS) (Naa Ce- Te Cee, 2010). Sce 2012, e START eeac ea a aaed e daabae ad egaed e ecge ad ae ed e e accac f e ecd (LaFee, Dga, e a., 2006; LaFee, Dga & Me, 2015). Udeadg e GTD e eea e cdeg a e daa ed e ce . Te f e eab, c a caged e e ea. Te aaab f eecc e, gee e, ad fa, geea, a ed a ce e fea f e Wd Wde Web. T aaab f fa ad e 76 d geea cecede gge a daa gaeed e a 20 ea e cee ad e eabe a e aaabe fa. We e d ceaed cec ad fa becae e accebe, START a geg bee a cecg ad aag e daa a e e GTD. A, e e ee a caged ce e gee f e GTD. Ra (2001 & 2004) f ae f e bg e acc ad age, a e dace f eg dege cee age. Te ag f d ae ef-g g e ae 1990, e a-Qaeda aac f e USS Ce Yee 2000, ad e 9/11 e aac 2001 eed a cage (Ra, 2004). Te eegece f e ecge aaabe a e a f e e e fe eabed a cagg aadg, gag e ea 2000 a a bg e f e d f e g a ad dec-ag. Tee cage ca e e eeace f e aac daa befe 2000, a a a e ecfc e eaed . Te e aac daa ed e aa f a cfed START-GTD f e begg f 2000 g e ed f 2018 (=121,628) . N e-2000 aac ee cdeed e aa. Te daa ed aae aac ecfc eecc face ee feed f e START-GTD 2000-2018 ae f aac ceae a be bae ae f eecc aac (=1,198). T eecc aac ae eee a aac b a g (b ad ) dde f 2000 g 2018. Sce a f e dec fac ed a deede aabe e aga e ga ee ee eaed a g caacec (e.g., deg, gaa age & e, ece, ec.), e daa a cd be ef f aa ed aac ee e g a e eeace ad defed e daabae. START eeace ee ced cde aac a 77 e a geec dec e e e g a ec defed e fa a cfced a c g cdced e aac. Teefe, a aac ee abed a ecfc e g. I e ce , e daa ae a feed cde a be f only those attacks that were specifically attributed to a named terrorist group (known attack subset) (n=521). T aac be e fc f c f e aae aa . T aded b-ae f aac ee geeaed f e e ab/ aac be ae: Sae #1 243 ad aac eecc face aed e g abed (2000 2018) Pa aa. Sae #2 278 ad aac eecc face aed e g abed (2000 2018) C-ada. 3.4 Pelimina Mehodolog T ed caed a f f a ea-aa f e eae d a g f ea eabe dec fac, ag e de f eae ce defed e ea-aa a be aed. Mea-aa a a gca cce edce e eee cec f dec fac deed f e eae a a e f eabe aabe. Te eae e g a ad dec-ag fece ded a c cec f daa fac fecg e dec f e 90 ce ag ea 50 ea. W dee eec f eae, ee ee e 50 ee-eeed ace, a f c ed g aae aa e cc. Te eae a cded a b cae, e ae, ad g b ee e 78 ad e g a. Teefe, e eae eeed a ececc bd f , c cfded e eeac. Te caege a eab cedb f e da f ae dec fac ad adae fa g a g ce. T a eed a ed a cd f dee ce a c agage ec. Te ce ed a a ea-aa. Hee, ce e daa eeged f e eae b aae ad aae f, e ecfc aca f e ea-aa ad efec ea de f ce defed e ea-aa a aed. 3.4.1 Blended Mea-Anali of he Lieae Gee Ga dced e e ea-aa 1976 (Ga, 1976; ORe, 2007) decbe e eac ad aca aae f cec f dda aae de e ece. Mea-aa a eabed a a aae aae a bd f e ded eea fe aggegae e e. Ga aed, a ee ce a e ae ce ca f a f a e ee ae e ae ae f e ea-aa f eeac (1976, . 3). He decbed ea- aa a e aa f aae (Ga, 1976, . 3). Te ed a aed g e f Ccae ad Ed (Ed, 2006; ORe, 2007). Mea-aa ed be a ef ed ee a aca aea f eeac a ded e e. Eee cec f eaed aded c a ae e beced ea-aa. T ed aca c edca, eacae, edcaa, ad cgca eeac, ee ce ae eaaed aga e aggegaed aca cce f aed ee (Ga, 1976; Hadc, 2010; Wg, Wff, Deade, e a., 2015). Se & Ha (1985) eeed e f aae e f e e aae ea- aa d e eacae e. Te eeac eaed ee e aae 79 de g gded e ece def a e aabe eed aga a age f cea e (Se & Ha, 1985). Oe f e a, P Neage Se, ae cabaed e e a b cae a ceee defed Qaliaie Mea-Anali (Scebe, C, & Se, 1997) ad eabed e ed a a ad eeac . Scebe e a. (1997) decbed aae ea-aa a e aggegag f a g f de f e e f dceg e eea eee ad aag e e a ed dc a af e ga e a e cceaa (. 314). Hded f ae ced e Scebe e a. (1997) cae, c becae e ed fdaa g. Oe c (Pe, Ma & Pa, 2007) ed, I ea c fed, e eacg e aae ea-aa begg ga eace dbed becae f e g b ad a f aae ea-aa ea ece ad ea c eeac (. 75). Ta (2009) added, Te bac dea f aae ea-aa de a cce ad ceee ce f fdg ac aae de a egae e ae geea eeac c (. 591). Qaae ea-aa a eabed a f ad egae adg e eae a a acceed ed f eeac. Sce e eae eeed aeed c a de ae f e ce aea, cdg aae ac, eac aa, c eeg, ee eca g e De ed, ad e aae ad -eeac-baed g, a e aeg a deed eac a e f dec fac f fe aa. Mc e e Se & Ha (1985) , e deg cce f e ed aed e ce bega f a gded e aac (Gae & Sa, 1967; Cb & Sa, 2008). Te, a e f bece ec ce ee aed baed a e f e-defed cea. Te 80 ce ee e ed a Blended Mea-Anali , c a e fae ad ecae ad ea add e eae eeac ed. T e f ea-aa de e e a ee f ee aae de aae de. A beded ea-aa a de ece e aca ca f e aae de, ed e gded e f e aae de. Sce e beded ea-aa ed a aed e eae e a, e ce bega aeg, eabg e ce, ad cecg e eea eae. T ee ce ad, a de e a ca gae a eee cec f eae ce. Sce e de d f e ad e a bega ad 1970, ad e aac daa cec a bega a ea, a gca bd e eae beee 1970 ad e ee (Baa, Ee & Sdbeg, 2001; McCc, 2003, GTD, 2018). A eae eac a cdced f e: (1) A ed eac a aed g ab 70 eaed ae ad ded f ed; (2) A f aae 150 e ee ad e a a aebed; (3) Te f ce f e ed eace ad e f g f e e a ee c-ceced cae a cec ; (4) Eac ce bbga a caed egae c ce ee ced b eac a, ad a g a ae ced e bec ce a a egaed. Te e ca ad ae f eac ceced ce ee ceced eea a ea ed adda ce. Oce e eae a ceee aebed, eac ce a eaed f a cea ad ca deadg f e bec, ad e a, a eac aa def fac fece a e a aed a affecg e dec. Tee 81 fac cded dec egage e ac ad g, acc, ad age eec e. Te eac aa aaged fac a a b e a, ad eag cce ee ed. Dffeece eg ee ecced, ad cce ee cdaed a e f adad e. Te eac aa a a da ce a eeaed ee a fece ee a de dec: Pcgca, Scgca, Idegca, Iea, Ogaaa, Eea, ad Pecea. Tee ee fece ee ece e degee g e eae ad efeced e fece ed b Dae (1998a) ad Acea e a. (2007). W eac f ee bad defed dec fece a a f dda dec fac eaed e eae ad eed . Ug e f dec fac f Cae 2 (ee Tabe 1), c ee c g c f e eae ad eea e cea e f c fac feced dec, a ee f cc ad a eabed. Te fac ee e eged aga ee cea ad ge a bece ec ce (1-5) f eac ce. Eac fac a ce e f e ce f eac f e cea. Tee da ce ee bece aed baed eac fac eae eg e aed e cedg ce. Te cea ee aed eac dec fac g a ee f e. Te cea ad eaed e ee aed a f: 1) Oeaa U I e dec fac abe f a d f e eae/daa? Ae ee c ee a cd ac gae fac? 2) Eca S I e fac fece e dec ed b eca edece e eae? 3) Eaa Pe De e fac ee ea e dec affed e eae? Te e ed eac f e ee cea ae ed ae a cfdece ee a eac fac dec fece e dec. I e f ce, e ae e 82 e aed f a aee f cfdece a e fac ad eaa ae e deadg feced dda dec. T cfdece ee a dcaed b a ce f 1-2 f cfdece e eaa , a ce f 3 f ed cfdece, ad 4-5 f a g ee f cfdece. I e ecd ce (eca ), e ce a a aee f c aae aae edece a eeed e eae e cea beee a aca dec ad e fac de cdea. Te d ce (eaa e) a aae aee f g e fac eaed e dec. A ce f 1-2 aed beef a e fac eaed e dec, a ce f 3 gfed a deae beef, ad a ce f 4-5 dcaed a g beef a e fac eaed eea dec. Te cg a be (Tabe 2) ae a f e c fac eed f e eae ad e aae dec befe e ce ec ce: Tabe 2. Dec Fac Scg Ma Deciion Faco Scoing Mai Ope a ional U ili Empiical Sppo Ep lana o Po e Ope a ional Uili Empi ical Sppo Eplan ao Poe Psychological Influences Ideological Influences Teoi Pofile L L Gop Ideolog High High High Pchopaholog L L Naciim-Aggeion L L Organizational Influences Pcho-Logic L L Oganiaional Sie High High High Paanoia L L Oganiaional Age / Lifec cle M M M Leadehip / Sce M M M Sociological Influences Opeaional Capabiliie / Re o ce M High High Relaie Depiaion L L Oppeion L L External Influences Social Ideni L L L Smbolic Tage / Pa A ack High M M Challenge / Repone L L M Seci Enionmen High M M Hono / Shame L L L Tage Poecion High M M Limied Good Saed Tage Rik / Vale o G o p High M M Eenal Sppo / Ne o king High High High Instrumental Influences Acce o Tage High High M Poliical / Saegic Goal L L M Coecion M M L Perceptual Influences Inflic Damage M M M Pecepion of Capabiliie M M M Rall Sppo M M L Pecepion of Tage Sec i M M M Fanchie Bilding M M L 83 Tee ae cea a beded ea-aa. Te a eac aa f e eae, e aca f eeced cea, ad e cg e ae a bece ed b e eeace edge ad eee. Te e d be eed e e ed bece ae ad gace f ea ba. F eg, beded ea-aa eeed a gfca ce g a eceeded e eae ca e. Ae eg f e ed a e eac decc ad aa f eaed cce f e eae eabg effece e bdg ad eca (Scebe, C, & Se, 1997). 3.5 Idenificaion of Teoi Gop Chaaceiic & Daa Coding Te aac be (521 aac f eecc face) cded e ab f eac aac a aca e g. Te ebe g fa a aead ed ag e daa fed. Hee, e aca aa f e START GTD aac ae daa eed ea e befe cdg e g dec fac e daa. Te fac a ee e caed e ga START GTD daae cded eac g deg, e e f e g, e age f e g a e e f e aac, edece f e aac b e g a age, ad e eaa caabe ad ece f e g. T cdg eff eed eee eeac eac f e 71 aacg g deee e deg, e, age, eaa ece, ad ee e ad aaced eecc face age e. Ceg e eeac f eac e g ad e bee cdg f e daa eed e 150 f . F cdg e, e g eeac a geaed f e g fe ded b f eabe ad e- ce: Jae Wd Igec & Te IHS Ma bca 84 Safd Ue, Cee f Ieaa Sec ad Cea (CISAC), Mag Ma Ogaa Daabae Te Reeac & Aa C (TRAC) Cee f Saegc ad Ieaa Sde (CSIS) I e cae, ee ce fe f dg a e ecea fac ab e e f e aacg g. A a eae, H ad e Yee g ee dffc eeac g e ce a eed eae, adda fa cae f a bca e Yee c a (Sa, 2019). Ifa e g e Pe a ageed ad ceaed f e aed g ad eegg ee e eg (Sa, Sa & Da, 2010; Baa, 2014). A RAND e e Iac Sae (aa ISIL ISIS) ded ce ad a deee deadg f gaed ad fded ace (Je, Dbb, e a., 2017). Te Iac Sae (aa ISIL ISIS) faca ece ee eaed ae bca a eaced e eeac ceced f a ce (Cae, Jac, e a., 2017). Mc f e gaaa ce ad ace b Iac Sae b-g (ce aa) Lba ee e acaed e Jae ad CISAC e, a eeac a ageed a e e ega affcg f ea b ee g Lba (Vae, 2017). Fa, e eeac a fe eaced e Aa g b eeg e U.K. He Offce C f Og Ifa e (COI, 2018) ad e Gba Te Ide (2018). Secfc fa e faca ece, eee eae, ad ce f ce f e g a eeaced Jae Wd Igec & Te IHS Ma bca (2019), Fbe Ieaa (Zea, 2014 & 2018), ad e ce (Be, C, e a., 2002; Sce, 2004; Wae, & Fec, 2017; Hea, 2019; B). 85 3.5.1 Coding fo Ideolog Te g deg a ce ded ad defed a a dec fac b e ca (Dae, 1998a & 1998b; P e a., 2002a; McCc, 2003; Vcff, 2005; Acea e a., 2007). Te cea beee deg ad dec fece e eae ee eca ed eea aae ad aae de (Acea e a., 2007; Aa & Reeee, 2008; Tf e a., 2010; Aed, 2018b). Teefe, ce d eff cde e START-GTD eecc face aac be bega a ega ad aee f eac g a deg. T acae eac ecfc e g e daae a degca dec, a ecea f defe e e. Ideg ee a a bd f beef, dea, ad ce, c ca eab a g de, ca , ecc a, ca , ad eg dga. Ideg a bee aeae decbed e cae a dce ee a . Acea e a. (2007) decbed e deg a a g eg, ca, ad ca ea ad ca de. Acea e a. (2007) eabaed e cce b ag a deg dcae a ebe f e g ae f ad a e ae aga (. 20). Cea (1981) caed deg a ce f a a (. 395). T a a defe acceabe ee f ece ad c ea, acc, ad age ae egae (Cea, 1981 & 1983; Dae, 1998a; Acea e a., 2007; Hffa, 2017). I e cae f age eec, g deg ca ee a a gde f eecg age a e e de, ca bece, ad ccae e eage e a. Secfc e g ed eec f a dc e age f age, ad e 86 dec ae aed b e g deg (Hffa, 2017). Dae (1998a) aed e e f deg e eec f age a f: Oea, e deg f a e g e e deea f age eec, a becae ae e a c e ee e d ad defe e dge e ac f ee ad . Ideg fece e g e a a a be ee a a egae age. B eabg c aaee, deg fea deeg e age f ea age (. 34). Ideg ca be e aca aed def a ee f a a; gd ee, g ad f bad e; ad eabg e g cece (Acea e a., 2007, . 26). I a, deg ed f e ac f e g. A fdaea e f e ce a eab c degca ea ae e aac eecc face age. Hee, e f aa ca be geeaed ae e ed a a deg aac a ecfc age f age. Te ce eae e aca feec f a aac, cafed b deg, ceg e aac be ae g (2000-2018). Te degca caeg dec ad def ee da f e g f Sa (1991), Dae (1998a & 1998b), Acea e a. (2007), Hffa (2017), ad Aed (2018a & 2018b). Te deg cde ee deeaed caege: 1. Reg/Ia/Jad 2. E-Naa/Seaa/Iede 3. Lef-g/Ma/Ma (eca) 4. Rg-g (eca) 5. Eea/Sge-Ie 6. Cba Reg/E-aa Religious Groups Reg e caaceed a e ca f eg beef a afe a ca ece. Reg e geea fcb e e egca ad a ece e geea a. I a ace, ae a dgac ad 87 ee de, ee g e eca gee a Gd eee a ac ffce e (Acea e a., 2007). I ce, eg e g fe e eca gee a a ee ad a f Gd a ad, eefe, d a e g. We eg e ca e e eee e f a eg fa, cdg Ca, Jda, ad Hd, da e cae eda feae g g a adca ad eee e f Ia (Sa, 1991; Dae, 1998a & 1998b; Acea e a., 2007). Tee -caed Ia Jad adee a c eea f e Ka ad Iac a, ad e beee e ae de aac ad fg a a Jad aga eca fece. T a fg g e aac f ca ad -cbaa a (Tf, De & Beaa, 2010). Te Ia/Jad deg ea feced b e 1979 Iaa Re ad a-Qaeda eegece (Hffa, 2017). I e ce , e eg e g ed e be ae ee Ia/Jad g. Tee ee e eg g abed aac aga eecc face age. Ia/Jad g ae fe dce f e dege becae f e gba ega eac. A a eae, Jae Wd Igec & Te (2019) a-Sabaab a a aaa ad g, e a bece e cea f a Ia ae Saa, adeed accdg adca eea f aa (Iac a) (. 9). A- Sabaab fced eg e Fedea Gee f Saa (FGS), e e cdc aac Db, Ea, Kea, Taaa, Ugada, ad g e eg ead e deg ad fece e eg. Accdg Fbe (Zea, 2014), a-Sabaab ecee a eaed $70 (U.S. da) f eee e ea f a ae f eaa fdg ce, cdg a aec daa e U.S. (Jae Wd Igec & 88 Te, 2019). Tee g ae geea fced a ge c e, ad e d ee ca deedece gegac eaa f a eg ege. Te ga ae e e egca. Te fe ee e eg ege, a e eae f a-Sabaab Saa ad e Iaa e, fa f a eg daed gee a ag e Iac a eea. I a cae, ee g adcae ceag a dde M Caae, a caed b a-Qaeda (Tf, De & Beaa, 2010; Hffa, 2017). T deg dffe gfca f e-aa/eaa g, ee e fc ed be e ca ad fe ee ec, ca, aa a. Ma e-aa/eaa g a ee a ee a ag Ia deg ad ae ee fed aace eaa Jad g. Hee, e fa f ee g ee edae e f ae, ad e geace ae fe baed dec ca, ec, agage dffeece. Jae Wd Igec & Te, CISAC, ad e ce a caf ee g a e-aa/eaa dee e aae Ia ea. Oe eg g a ee ee e-aa ga, c be ae dced a cba g. I e ce , ee ee 20 Ia/Jad g defed aac f eecc face age f 2000 g 2018. Eac f ee g a cded a (1) Reg ad ae cded e fg Tabe 3: 89 Religio Teoi Gop (Ilami/Jihadi) A-Qada e Aaba Pea (AQAP) Jeaa Iaa (JI) A-Qada e Iac Mageb (AQIM) Laa-e-Taba (LeT) A-Sabaab Mae G Aa a-Saa (Lba) Paea Iac Jad (PIJ) Baa Pce f e Iac Sae Saaf G f Peacg ad Fgg (GSPC) Fe Be Sa Pce f e Iac Sae Haa Mab G Taba Te Iac Sae f Ia ad e Lea (ISIL) Te--Taba Paa (TTP) Ja-e-Kaa (JeK) Tbee (Yee) Jaaa-E-Ia (Bagade) T Pce f e Iac Sae Tabe 3. Reg Te G (Ia/Jad) Ethno-Nationalist/Separatist/Irredentist Groups E-aa, eaa, ede dege ae decbed b Acea e a. (2007) a eg ea e a ee ee eab a deede ae f e ec, gc, ca, aa c c e ae affaed (f e aead ae e deede ae) e a f e ebe f e c cdg e a e egbg ce de e aeg f c a ae. (. 16). Te e-aa deg baed ag dea ab a ce a a-ae (Dae, 1998a). We g f a ee f aa de ad a c agage, e f ca beef, a ca cec a gegaca eg, ca, a e, ae a ee ea a ca ead ac f e (Dae, 1998a). We- eae f e-aa e g cde e Pa I Rebca A (PIRA), Bae eaa Sa (Ead Ta Aaaa - ETA), e Ta Tge (Lbea Tge f Ta Eea - LTTE) S Laa, ad e Paee Lbea Ogaa (PLO) (Dae, 1998a; Acea e a., 2007; Hffa, 2017). We 90 ee a be a eg de ee ad e aa g, e a bece a ead f e ee f e ca bacgd. LTTE g a eaae ae ad gee f e ee f Ta eage f e S Laa a e b e Saee ee. Te ca ad gc dffeece beee e Saee ad Ta feed ea 35 ea f ecaa ece. Jae Wd Igec & Te (2019) ad CISAC (2019) b LTTE a a Naa g. Sa, e Bae ee f Sa fed ad a c agage (Eaa) ad fg a bd a aga gee fce ce 1959 (Jae Wd Igec & Te, 2019). Tee e debae ab ee cea g d be caeged a e- aa eg. Te dc a cee e g ea bece ad ee e g cae eece befe e ce dace f Ia e. Tee a be dc beee ee caf ee g a e-aa, eg, a bd. Oe eae e Baa Re Naa (BRN) g, c cafed b Jae Wd Igec & Te (2019) a Eca/Seaa (. 3). Te g ace e e ce f Taad, cdg Yaa, Naaa, ad Paa. Tee a M a ee eg, b e eg ec e ee a e. BRN fed 1960 ad a feaed Iac eacg a e ce f e deg g. Hee, e g ea bece e eabe f a deede ae f Paa Daaa e Taad e ba f e MaaM de f e a f e a (Jae Wd Igec & Te, 2019, . 6-9). BRN a aace a g e eg, eeg deedece f Maa ee ad ae cafed a e-aa e ce . Sa cf e Paa Baca eg, ee e M ee g e ad cdc e ea. Tee g fc ea a 91 e ace ceag a deede ae f e Bac ee, ad ce e a e-aa dee e Ia face f e deg (Gae, 2013; Paa COI Re, 2013; Jae Wd Igec & Te, 2019; CISAC, 2019). Te e-aa age eec age ed be ae a e g fc ad gg e cbe gee eceed ece ad e ege ab de ec f ee (Hffa, 2017). Eecc face ad cca face, geea, ca ee aace age becae e ca be ee a ee f e gee. Tee g ed fc e ege f c e ee deedece. Se e-aa g ae deed e ea ad fdag aea aac eaa ae f e cae, b e fc age ea cceaed e ce a eae a eg (Hffa, 2017). I e ce , 28 e-aa g acced f 180 aac f eecc face age f 2000 g 2018 ad ee cded a (2) E-Naa. Tee g ae cded Tabe 4: 92 Ehno-Naionali Teoi Gop Bac Lbea A (BLA) Laa-e-Baca Bac Lbea F (BLF) Lbea Tge f Ta Eea (LTTE) Bac Naa La Pee Rebc Bac Rebca A (BRA) Ma Ma Baca Lbea Ued F (BLUF) Naa Cc f Defee f Decac (NCDD) Baa Re Naa (BRN) Paa Ued Lbea Ogaa (PULO) Bae Faead ad Feed (ETA) Rda Ka Kec (RKK) Beag G Pee Lbea Mee Sa Ued Rea A De Pee Rebc Sdde Rea A (SRA) Ga Ja Mca (GJM) Ta Iac Ma Kac Ideedece A (KIA) Uaa aa Kae Naa U Ued Bac A (UBA) K Naa F (KNF) Ued F f Decac Aga Dca Kda We Pa (PKK) Ued Lbea F f Aa (ULFA) Tabe 4. E-Naa Te G Combination Ethno-Nationalist – Religious Groups (Hybrid) Se g eed a g eg (Ia/Jad) deg e eeg deedece f e ce. Tee g eded ee a baed a ca ad gc dffeece, b e aa bece cd be aged f e eg beef, c eded be eee. A eae f c a g e M Iac Lbea F (MILF), c fed 1977 a a e g f e M Naa Lbea F (MNLF). B gaa g a deede ead f e ec M ee e Se Pe Iad, cdg Mdaa, Laa, ad Magdaa. Te M ee ea a ae f ee dge agage deedg eg ad dffe f e a f aba f e Pe Iad (Sa e a., 2010; Baa, 2014; Jae Wd Igec & Te, 2019; CISAC, 2019). T 93 dc d ee caf e a c e-aa, b e a acce Ia ad ee ae a a eg f e 13 M Tbe a ae e M ee (Jae Wd Igec & Te, 2019, . 4). Fe , Jae Wd Igec & Te (2019) decbed MILF a fdaea aac Ia ad e Pe M c, g a g aace Jeaa Iaa (JI), Ab Saaf G (ASG), Baga Iac Feed Fge (BIFF), ad e Iac g ac e Pe, Idea, ad e a f ea Aa (Sa e a., 2010; Baa, 2014; Jae Wd Igec & Te, 2019; CISAC, 2019). Ma f ee g aa a ea a-Qaeda Iac Sae (Fea, 2011; Gaaa, 2016). Dffee ce caf ee g a dec, b e ca cea be cdeed a a cba bd f e- aa ad eg. T bd caeg fed e ba f ee g ee cded e ce . I e ce , e combinaion e-aa/eg g acced f 54 aac f eecc face age f 2000 g 2018 ad ee cded a 6 accdg. Tee g ae a a bece ad de g e ga cafed a e-aa. Te cba e-aa/eg g caeg a defed f aa e ce . Hee, ee e g cd ae bee cbed ece e e-aa cafca ce aa ad ca a ee be e da e f beef a ae e g ac. Te cba g ae cded Tabe 5: 94 Combinaion Ehno-Naionali/Ilamic Teoi Gop Ab Saaf G (ASG) H ee (Aa Aa) A-Kba (Baga Pe) M Iac Lbea F (MILF) Baga Iac Feed Mee (BIFM) Rea Pe Mee (Eg) Fee Ace Mee (GAM) Rad-Sa Recaace ad Sabage Baa f Cece Ma Haa (Iac Reace Mee) Tabe 5. Cba E-Naa/Iac Te G Left-Wing/Marxist/Maoist Groups Lef-g, Ma, Ma e g ae decbed e eae a eeg e gee baed decac ad caa. Tee ae g eeg eab a cec ce a fce ca ad ecc ea. Te deg degca cce gae f e g f Ka Ma b ae ea feced b e Se e ad e Cee e eabed b Ma Te-g (Dae, 1998a; Acea e a., 2007; Jae Wd Igec & Te, 2019). Lef-g g ee e e a g ca ad edbe ea ad e (Dae, 1998a). Te dffe f e-aa ce e geea d ee aa ca deedece, ad a ed eg g, e ae be fece eca. La Aeca a bee daed b a ef-g g c a e Fea Aada Recaa de Cba (FARC), Naa Lbea A f Cba (ELN), ad e Sg Pa Sede L (SL) f Pe (Dae, 1998a; Acea e a., 2007; Jae Wd Igec & Te, 2019; CISAC, 2019). M f ee g cae ece e d--ae-1960 ad eaced e e e 1980 ad 1990. B 2000, a f ee g ad deced be ad fece. Oe abe ece a FARC, aaed a fce f 26,000 fge 2002 b eeeced a ad dece 8,000 fge b 95 2010. A ceaefe effece eded FARC ea 2014, b a e g a FARC Dde ce aac (Jae Wd Igec & Te, 2019). Te e eg a gfca ef-g eece Aa g e e C Pa f e Pe Ne Pee A (CPPNPA) ad e C Pae Ida ad Nea (Sa e a., 2010; Jae Wd Igec & Te, 2019). Tee g ae fe efeed a Ma, b f e ce , e ee cded a ef- g, ag g a eed Ma, Le, e ca ad c beef. I e ce , e ef-g/Ma/Ma g acced f 139 aac eecc face age f 2000 g 2018 ad cded a (3) (efe Tabe 6). Lef-Wing Teoi Gop Rea Aed Fce f Cba (FARC) C Pa f Nea Ma (CPN-Ma -Cad) Ne Pee A (NPA) Paagaa Pee A (EPP) Naa Lbea A f Cba (ELN) Naa Decac Aace A (NDAA-ESSA) C Pa f Ida Ma (CPI- Ma) Rea Aed Fce f Cba (FARC) dde Sg Pa (SL) Vage NeHecaf eee Tabe 6. Lef-Wg Te G Right-Wing Groups Rg-g g ed fa a eabed ca de ad a eabed eacca, ca, ad ca ce. Tee g ee defed eg de e eeg dde ad e e. Se f e e eee f f deg ca ae fac eee, ee e g-g g ee ee, e, , e ca ad ec e (Dae, 1998a; Acea e. a, 2007). T e f e ca afe g feeg f aa, ec ad aca , ad ee eg 96 e (Dae, 1998a). Rg-g g ca eee e eabed a a defaced eeg ee aa ad (Dae, 1998a). Se eae f g-g g cde e Faead ad Feed Naa F Ce, e Naa Ac Pa Te, e Ode e Ued Sae, ad e Naa Vagad Ia (Acea e a., 2007). I e ce , e g-g g ebe f aac f eecc face a e Naa U f e Ta Ideedece f Aga (UNITA) aac, 2000 ad 2001. T g a cded a Rg-Wg (4) ad ed Tabe 7: Righ-Wing Teoi Gop Naa U f e Ta Ideedece f Aga (UNITA) Tabe 7. Rg-Wg Te G Environmental/Single-Issue Groups Eea ge-e g cceae e ee a cccbed e f ca ad c aea. Ma f e g a fa caeg ae ed eea ad aa g ac, ag e deg ca eca a de aa f a-gee ad a-caa g (Dae, 1998a; Acea e a., 2007; Te, 2010; Ce, 2013). Sge-e g ca be cceed e c ad c f e ee, ab, aa g, cea e, ce, cae caa, gbaa, ec. Se f e ace f ee g ca cde: a, ag f a f cg, ada, gaff, caag dc, dg e ad ea cca ad acg ebe, aa, ea f ece, ea, ef, cag ace, ace, ad e gaeg, g ee, abage f ee, bc, ad ceg, ad e bc dea f ae daa (Ce, 2013, . 28). 97 Pe g caeg cde Ea Lbea F (ELF), Aa Lbea F (ALF), A f Gd (AOG), ad Bac Bc (Dae, 1998a; Acea e a., 2007; Te, 2010; Ce, 2013). Se ca age a ee g ae caaceed a e becae e acc ae ec aed a g g ca, b ead fc deg e (Ce, 2013). Tee ee f aac b ee (3) eea/ge-e g dg e ed de ega (2000-2018). Tee g cdced aac eecc face e Ued Sae, Caada, ad Face. Te ae cded e daae a Eea/Sge-Ie (5) ad ed Tabe 8: Enionmenal/Single-Ie Teoi Gop C Ref Ee Iae de Race Ieaae Wd Iddae Tabe 8. Eea/Sge-Ie Te G 3.5.2 Coding fo Gop Sie Te eae ed g e a a fac fecg gaaa dec, cdg age eec (Dae, 1998a; McCc, 2003; Acea e a., 2007; Aa & Reeee, 2008). Te beded ea-aa a ed e a a g e d be cdeed a a dec fac ad eed a a deede aabe aa. Te aac be a cded f g e b eeacg e aeage be f ebe eac g dg e efae e eecc face aac ee beg cdced. Te daae a cded f g e b addg a daa fed eac aac e eadee. Tee g ee dded e cdg caege (1-10) (efe Tabe 9) ad cded a f: 98 Gop Sie Coding Caegoie 0 U be f ebe 1 </= 100 6 >2,000-2,500 2 >100-500 7 >2,500-3,000 3 >500-1,000 8 >3,000-3,500 4 >1,000-1,500 9 >3,500-4,000 5 >1,500-2,000 10 >4,000 Tabe 9. G Se Cdg Caege 3.5.3 Coding fo Gop Age A e g gaaa age a e e f a aac a eeged f e eae a a e dec fac (Acea e a., 2007). Te eae fe ed a g age gaaa a a Acea e a. (2007) efe a a gaaa fecce. Acea e a. (2007) efe ce a f: Ogaaa Lfecce Sa efe e ce age e ea f e g. T be e ece, a d e ge f e gaa, e cage e gaa a dege e e, a cd ce eae geea ae f ca e, ad ee ee be g ead eeg a ea eae ae f dece. Tee ae bfac caeg (. 21). Ogaaa fecce a beeed be ceaed a e g cagg e f aca age acc a e g age. T agg ce fe feced b a ee eeed b e ee, cdg e ea ec ee (McCc, 2003). I e cae, a fd a aac ee geea aed e eac dg a g eae age, e e ae g ae eaed e acc, aced geae caab, ad deeed a e e f a f aac (Dae, 1998a; Acea e a., 2007). Hffa & McCc (2004) geea fd a e g becae e e e e ad ed f a f defg ecfc age f aegc bece ece f ae. Wee e , a ca ed g cea beee gaaa fecce ad dec eaed acc ad 99 age (Acea e a., 2007; Aa & Reeee, 2008; Aa, Reeee, Ade, e a., 2009). H (2010) added a gaaa age a a fac e ad f ecg, c a feced c age ee eeced. Te eae a ed e beded ea-aa cdced ; eefe, e g age a e e f e aac a cacaed ad cded e aac daae. Eac g age a dceed b eeacg e ea e g a eabed. Te cdg a ceed b ddg age age 5-ea gg ad addg a fed a cedg ec cde (1-10) e daae. Te daa cde ee ed Tabe 10 a f: Gop Age Coding Caegoie 0 U g age 1 1-5 Yea 6 26-30 Yea 2 6-10 Yea 7 31-35 Yea 3 11-15 Yea 8 36-40 Yea 4 16-20 Yea 9 41-45 Yea 5 21-25 Yea 10 >45 Yea Tabe 10. G Age Cdg Caege 3.5.4 Coding fo Peio Aack on Elecic Inface Te eae eed a e g ae caabe b eag f e cce fae f e aac. G eded ecae ccee ad e a age (Dae, 1998a; McCc, 2003; Acea e a., 2007; Hffa, 2017). Te START-GTD daa ed e e beg e ace f g e aac a age. T adae ece, e aac daae a cded dcae ee a eecc face aac a eceded b e a aac. Te daa ee cded dcae ee a g cdcg a aac ad (0) e aac, (1) e e aac, (2) 2 e e aac. 100 3.5.5 Coding fo Opeaional Capabiliie/Reoce Ae e addeed e ce a e e f a g eaa caabe ece age eec dec. Te aca aa ce cded a deea f ee a ac abdace f eaa ece feced g dec eaed age eec. Teefe, eac eecc face aac e aac be ad be cded f e g eaa ece ee. Dae (1998a), Acea e a. (2007), ad Se (2010) decbed eaa caabe a e ab aac a age. Dae (1998a) eabed a cea beee a g eaa caabe ad ab ca e ea (. 73). Te ce ed e e eaa caabe ad eaa ece ecageab, c ae defed ee a e agbe ad agbe ece a deee a g effecee a aag eaa ga. I aca, Acea e a. (2007) gged e e f eaa ece ag dec aac cca face ecfca: Rece efe e ee ad de f e ae aaabe a e g ce c ae ae eed eabe a ef e e ad e gae ad ca aac (. 21). Acea e a. (2007) f eaa caabe cded a aa f ca, faca, ad gca ece. Te eae eeed bad ccece e e f eaa caabe/ece a a gfca dec fac a aed age eec (Dae, 1998a; McCc, 2003; Acea e a., 2007; Aa & Reeee, 2008; Aa, Reeee, Ade, e a., 2009; Se, 2010). Deedg e ce, eaa ece ee g ce a cec f ce cdg e e f e g (ee ece), ce ad a f eade, acce adda ee (eee), aaab f ea, faca ece, 101 ecca ceece, ad e ab ae (Dae, 1998a; McCc, 2003; Acea e a., 2007). Tecg ad ad ecca ee gged a cca ece a ca fece ageg dec (Jac, 2001; Acea e a., 2007; H, 2010). Neg ab ad e cea f aace e g ee a ed ag e fac cbg eaa caab (Acea e a., 2007). T caab aca e e aace cded a-ce ea, ae , facee ea age eaa g (e.g., a-Qaeda Iac Sae). Pbc f e ce ee g eaed cd a be caaceed a a eaa ece (De La Cae & Sce-Ceca 2007; H, 2010). Baa e a. (2014) decbed eaa ece a a ed gd cbg e g cce. Baa e a. (2014) e cded agbe cde c a ege ad . Te cce f ed gd e efed a e f eaa caabe a ed b Dae (1998a) ad Acea e a. (2007); ee, Baa e a. (2014) eeca fae ege e age a eaa ece d be cded ag e eea dec fac. I e ce f cdg e aac daa eac g eaa ece, a f ecea defe e ecfc eee de cdea. T ce e e bed a e deea f faca ece, c e cae a dffc be eab. Lage g c a a-Qaeda, Iac Sae, a-Sabaab, ad e Taba ad e-dceed eae f e aa eee (Zea, 2014 & 2018; Jae Wd Igec & Te, 2019). Reee eae f e e g ee ec aed ce aea. 102 Te aca eee f e g cd be deeed ad, a cae, ad be feed f e ce f eee, c a acc affcg, ea ggg, dad g, e, dag, ad a f f a ca a. A eae f a e-fded g a e Naa U f e Ta Ideedece f Aga (UNITA), c deed f eee f dad dc. Te aa eee U.S. da a ec cded a ce aea, b e cea eeeed a g a e g-ed f e ece ec a cdg ce f 8 f 10. UNITA aaced eecc a e 2000, g a-ee e, ad deed ee eecc geea 2001, c eed deead e age, f e e eg ae , ad ee dea. UNITA aac caed eaed daage ece f $3 (Hea, 2019; START-GTD, 2019). Se g eceed faca f a ae e a, c eaced eaa ece gfca. Te cg ec f cdg eac g eaa ece a baed a 1-10 cae, 1 beg e e be ag ad 10 beg e ge be ag. Te ce ee baed a aee ad bece aggega f e fg eee: Aa eee ($USD) if knon Sce f eee Nbe f ebe Seg f eade Acce ea/e f ea ed Sae /a Aace e g S f e ca a Acce ad e f ecg 3.6 Pima Mehodolog - Qaniaie Anali A baee ca a eabed beee e be f eecc face aac, eeg ec aac, ad a aac aga a age. Te a be ad 103 aca feec f a aac ee cacaed f a aac e START-GTD daabae f eac ea f 2000 g 2018 (=121,628). Te caca ade f ae cded aac a age b a e g, aac aga a eeg face (eecc, ga & cbed), ad aac ecfc eecc face. Te aa ded a ca f aac b ea f e ee ed de d f . T daa a gaed a abe ad a ee f ga cae ed ad ca. 3.6.1 Sample Selecion and Saiical Anali b Deciion Faco Te ae daa eeced f aa b eac aabe cded e START-GTD e aac aga eecc face age (2000-2018), ee e aacg g a defed b ae. T daa a a ae f 521 aac ad efeed a e aac be. Te be f eecc face aac acaed eac ecfc dec fac caeg (aabe) a cacaed f eac ea f e d ed f e aac be. A aca db f e aac b eac dec fac a eabed ad a caed a ee f abe ad ga. Te aac be a fe dded ad ae cg f Sae G #1 243 aac ad Sae G #2 278 aac. Eac f ee ad ae g a aaed deede ee a e e ee c adaed. T ce cded a caca f e be f aac b dec fac eac ad ae. Eac ad ae a e aaed f e aca db f aac b dec fac c-adae f e db a a e aac be. 104 3.6.2 Anali of Daa Oe Time Te daa ee gaed a ee f abe, g e aa be f eecc face aac acaed eac ecfc dec fac. Tee abe cded ea ae ad adad dea. Te daa a ed a ee e ga f eac aabe ed e a dec ea--ea ceae ad deceae f eecc face aac. 3.6.3 Hpohei Teing Eac f e fe ee defed Cae 1 a eed g e e f e aca aa: H1: Phical aack of elecic inface ae moe likel o hae been condced b ehno-naionali/epaai eoi gop han an of he ohe ideological gop. H2: Phical aack of elecic inface ae moe likel o be condced b eoi gop ha hae been in eience fo moe han 5 ea. H3: Phical aack of elecic inface ae moe likel o be condced b eoi gop ih moe han 3,000 membe. H4: Phical aack of elecic inface ae moe likel o be condced b eoi gop ha hae 2 o moe peio aack again imila age. H5: Phical aack of elecic inface ae moe feqenl condced b eoi gop ih geae opeaional eoce (e.g., a combinaion of eene, acce o ophiicaed eapon, e of echnolog, ae o paon ppo, and popla local ppo). A e (H 0) aee a eabed f eac f e fe ee. Te e (H 0) a eabed be aca dffeece e feec f eecc face aac e ceaed eac f e defed degca, age, e, a aac, ad eaa ece aabe. I e cae f e deg aabe (H1), e e (H 0) a baed e a a ee d be aca dffeece beee e feec f aac b eac f e degca g. Te e (H 0) f 105 H2 a eabed a be aca dffeece beee e feec f aac b g e fe ea d ad e fe ea d e. Te e (H 0) f H3 a deeed be aca dffeece beee e feec f aac b g geae a 3,000 ebe ad e g 3,000 fee ebe. Te e (H 0) f H4 a eabed a aca dffeece beee e feec f aac b g 2 e e aac ad e g fee a e aac. Te e (H 0) f H5 a eabed a aca dffeece beee e feec f aac cdced b g g ee f eaa ece (ced 8-10) ad e g ed ee f eaa ece (ced 1-7). Oce e e (H 0) aee ee eabed f eac, e be f aac f eac aabe ee gaed abe decg e be f aac f eac ea f e d ed (2000-2018). Te abe ee ceaed, ad ac ee cacaed Mcf Ece. Te be f eecc face aac f eac ea b aabe a cafed a a bea. Teefe, eac abe deced ae 19 bea (e f eac ea). Te ea ae ad adad dea ee cacaed f eac ae. Eac e a eed g a -ae -e ag ea aace a aa ae f .005 ad 18 degee f feed (-1). Te -a ae f eac e ee caed e -aed cca ae, ad e -ae ee caed aa deee f e e (H 0) a ed ded. Tee -e e ee ed deee f eac e cd be ed. 3.6.4 Pobabiliic Anali I Cae 4, e aca aa e decg e feec f a aac ee ed ee a Baea babc aac eabg e ed f fe aac. 106 Te babc aa a cdced af ad eae e bab a a aca e g e ce eecc face a a age f aac. Te aca feec f a aac f e 49 ea f e begg f 1970 g e ed f 2018 a ed eab bab ae; ad e cda babe ee eabed g e feec f a aac f e 19 ea f e begg f 2000 g e ed f 2018. Tee ae ee eabed dg e aca feec aa f e eeac. Te eeac aed a e f f Baea babc aa eae e ed f a aac f e age de cdea ce (Ke & S, 2011; Se, 2013). Te aa a ceed e age, begg eabg a bab ad cg a eac dec fac eed dae e cda bab f e eec f eecc face f a aac. Te aca feec f a aac, ecfca aga eecc face, a ed eae a ioi bab ae. Te aca feec f eac f e aabe eae e be f aac eac ae a ed eab cda bab ae (Se, 2013; Hbbad & Seee, 2016). Te aa ed e bab b e cda bab baed eac aabe cacae a bab. Te bab a e dded b e f babe eae a e bab. T ce a eeaed eae age g e e bab f e e age f aa a e ae e e age. T daed ae a e cbed eac aabe a e cda bab cacae a e e ae (Se, 2013). 107 A a eae, g e deg, e cda bab a aed a P(IDS/EI) , e bab f e defed deg ge a eecc face a aaced. T cda bab a ed b e bab (eceage f a aac aga eecc face) dce a bab. Te ae caca a efed eae e bab a e defed deg eec a age e a eecc face. Tee babe ee added gee dce e f babe. Te fa caca f ea a dde e bab f a eecc face aac ad e defed deg b e f e babe (Ke & S, 2011; Se, 2013). T caca dced a e ae, c a e daed eae f e defed deg bab de cdea. T ce a eeaed f e e dec fac (aabe) g e e ae f e ee f aa a e e ae. Te aa a eeaed f eac aabe (e.g., deg, age, e, eaa ece, ad edece f e aac). A Baea a deeed Mcf Ece f e babc caca. Te Ece eed e ae f a bab a a g eec eecc face a e deed age f aac. T bab a baed e feec f ca aac. Te a eed a ae f e cda bab, c a baed e eceage f aac ge a a aca dec fac (aabe) a a ee. Ug a e f fa, e Ece dced a e ae ad aaca daed e ae f e e ea f e aa (Hbbad & Seee, 2016). Cae 4 cded a aed aa f a eca e g, g e ae eabed f e aca feec f a aac. Te caca cded fe ea f aa eae e ed a e g d aac eecc face. 108 Te a a cdced deae e f e Ece ad e gc f e de. 3.7 Smma/Reeach Model I a, eeac edg ed a ed-ed aac def deede ad deede aabe, fed b aca caca baed e feec f a aac, ad aca f e ac a ae a babc aa. Te eeac de edg a baed acadec g, eaa , ad a cba f aae ed f eag babe ad ea edcg fe dec. 3.7.1 Reeach Model T eeac de a b a g ee f 50 ea f eae dec-ag fece b e g. Ta eeac a eed g beded ea-aa ad cded e START-GTD daabae ae. Te aca feec f e aac a aed eac fac cded e daa ae eab cda babe. Tee cda bab ae ee eeed e Baea deee e e bab a a aca g e eec eecc face age f aac. Te de a deced e ce f ca Fge 1: 109 Fge 1. Reeac Mde F Ca Dieced lneabili aemen . Leel of anali Poeio ale Emeging Theme Deciion Faco Infeenial Saiic Lieae Reie Redce Rik Goal: Pedic Deciion Tage Selecion Blended Mea-Anali Infomaion Shaing & Seillance File & Code Daa Eablih Vaiable Scoing Cieia High Scoe Applicaion START-GTD Aack Daa Deciion Faco Vaiable Feqenc of Pa Aack Pobabiliic (Baeian) Model Thea Pobabili Scoe 110 Chape 4: Anali and Rel 4.1 Inodcion T cae cae e e f e daa aa, c cde a aca ee f e feec f a eecc face aac, ad a eaa f aac feec acaed e ecfc dec fac eeed d. T cae a ee e cg e f e dec fac ad e fdg f e e eg. Te fg fe ec ce e eade f e cae: Sec 4.2 Feec f Pe Aac f Eecc Iface eae e aca feec f eecc ad eeg face aac f 2000 g 2018 ad cae e be f ea aac aga e age. Te e f ec f e aa eab e ce f e ea f eecc face aac eaed aga a e ea age. Sec 4.3 Tage Seec Ifece ee e cg ad ae eec f dec fece ce a deede aabe f e aa . Sec 4.4 Feec f Aac Rea Dec Fac ee e aca feec f eecc face aac ceaed e eeced deede aabe. Sec 4.5 He Teg ad Saca Sgfcace ee e -e f aca gfcace ad ee eac f e ee ca be ed. Sec 4.6 Baea Aa Pbabc T eae e ed ed f eabg ad cda ae, a e a e Baea deeed cacae e cda bab f eecc face aac. Sec 4.7 Sa ae e fdg f eeac. 111 4.2 Feqenc of Peio Aack of Elecic Inface Oe f e a eeac e (R1) aed ee e ea f ca aac aga eecc face a a gfca a a aecda e ee . T ec ee e e f e aca aa aed a aeg e. Te fdg eeed ee dec e aca aa e e feec f eecc face aac cdced b a e g e 19 ea (2000 g 2018). T aa ed e START-GTD daabae. Te aca aa ec caed e feec f eecc face aac e feec f aac aga a age. Te ga be Fge 2 ae e g be f dde e aac aga eecc face ecfca ad a eeg face aac e geea (ga, & eecc cbed) ce 2000. A e begg f e e, e be f eecc face aac fcaed g f ea ea b ea eeed ea ea fa 2008. I 2008, eecc face aac ceaed b 244% f e e ea. Afe 2008, e ea aca ed efeced a ee e aac, eag 2016 209 aac 2,512% e aac a 2000. Ee e ge ea e f decade f e e (2009 72 aac) a 190% e a e 2016 a. Te ceae aac e e 19 ea ca eaab be caaceed a baa. 112 Fge 2. Te Aac Eeg/Eecc Iface 2000-2018 A e aa eeaed ad e ga (Fge 2) ae, aac f eeg face geea (ga, & eecc cbed) eaed 2014 b fed a a ed eecc face ecfc aac. Te be f ea eeg ad eecc face ecfc aac deced 2017 ad 2018, e ee afe e ea, e be f aac eaed e abe e e ea ea. Te aca be f dde eecc face aac (1,198) aac f a age (121,628) a eaed eae (aae 1%). T fdg aae e cag e de-b-de be f eecc face aac caed eeg face aac, ad e ea aac aga a age, a eeed Tabe 11. 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Teoi Aack on Eneg Inface 2000-2018 Elecic Eneg 2 pe. Mo. Ag. (Elecic) 2 pe. Mo. Ag. (Eneg) 113 Teoi Aack 2000-2018 Yea Elecic % of Toal Aack Eneg % of Toal Aack All Tage 2000 8 0.439% 39 2.138% 1,824 2001 14 0.732% 38 1.986% 1,913 2002 15 1.129% 28 2.107% 1,329 2003 23 1.794% 52 4.056% 1,282 2004 8 0.684% 48 4.103% 1,170 2005 19 0.944% 64 3.181% 2,012 2006 15 0.544% 103 3.733% 2,759 2007 18 0.555% 70 2.159% 3,242 2008 62 1.290% 166 3.455% 4,805 2009 72 1.525% 188 3.981% 4,722 2010 37 0.767% 110 2.279% 4,826 2011 54 1.064% 186 3.664% 5,076 2012 61 0.715% 210 2.462% 8,529 2013 72 0.598% 297 2.467% 12,041 2014 155 0.917% 461 2.727% 16,908 2015 164 1.095% 343 2.290% 14,977 2016 209 1.534% 430 3.156% 13,626 2017 110 1.002% 209 1.903% 10,980 2018 82 0.854% 194 2.019% 9,607 Tabe 11. Te Aac 2000-2018 Te e be f eecc face aac ad e e eceage f ea aac cced 2000 eg aac, c a 0.44% f ea aac. Te ge be f eecc face aac cced 2014 209 (1.53% f ea aac), b e ge a f aac cced 2003 eecc face aac eeeg 1.79% f ea aac. Te ea ac f e 19 ea a 63 eecc face aac 0.96% f ea aac. Te aa f e eaed e aca ed f ea aac aga a age g e START-GTD aac daabae (2000-2018) (121,628 aac). Aag e eecc ad eeg face aac, e daa f ea aac (aed Fge 3) a eaab fa aca ed f 2000 2005, e a ea--ea aa. Beee 2004 ad 2005, e aac ceaed b 71%. Adda ceae fed ceae 2006 ad 2007. F 2008, e aac e 114 a ad eaed 2014 16,908. B 2014, dde e aac aga a age ad ceaed b 826% f 2000. I e ed fg e 2014 ea, e aa be f aac eaed c ge a e e eae ea. Te be f e aac 2018 eaed 426% e fee a 2000. Fge 3 dec acceea f dde aac aga a age dg e ecd decade f e e: Fge 3. Te Aac (A Tage) 2000-2018 Te e ga (Fge 4 ad Fge 5) ae a ca f eecc ad eeg face aac aac aga a age f e ae ed. Te ed deced b ga aea eaab a. T a d gge a e g ee f face aac a be a fc f e ceag ee f aac ea. Te a f face aac ea aac aea ae eaed eae ca e e. 1,824 1,913 1,329 1,282 1,170 2,012 2,759 3,242 4,805 4,722 4,826 5,076 8,529 12,041 16,908 14,977 13,626 10,980 9,607 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Terrorist Attacks - (All Targets) 2000 - 2018 115 Fge 4. Te Aac Ted Le (A Tage) 2000-2018 Fge 5. Te Aac Eeg/Eecc Iface 2000-2018 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 Teoi Aack 2000-2018 (All Tage) 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Teoi Aack on Eneg Inface 2000-2018 Elecic Eneg 116 T ec ee a eae be f eecc face aac ad eceage eae e ea aac b ae a gfca e e be e e. 4.3 Tage Selecion Inflence Te eeac e (R2) a aed a defg a ae f ea gaaa ad eea fac e fece age eec dec eaed eecc face aac. T ec a a f dec fac f aa eeac. Ug e f dec fac eed f e eae, e cg a aed Tabe 12 ed baed e Blended Mea-Anali eeed Cae 3. T eeac ed e cea f a cg ed, c cded a bece ec ce (1-5) f eac ce. Te ea ce ae e f e dda ce ce. Te cg a eeed ee Tabe 12, c dec e e: 117 Tabe 12. Scg Ma Te fg dec fac eeged e ge ae (Tabe 13): Deciion Faco ih Highe Scoe G deg 15 Pa aac f a age 15 G e 13 Sec Ee 14 Age/Ma f e g 12 Tage Pec 15 Leade Sce 13 G aed ee e age 12 G eaa ece 14 Tage g aea f ea 13 Tabe 13. Dec Fac Hge Sce A g aed ee e age ad e ec ee a e age ced g e aa a. Ufae, e START-GTD daa dd cae fa, ad e eeac ecea cde f ee d ae eed e ece a ee aaabe f Opeaional Uili Empiical Sppo Eplanao Poe Ope ai onal Uili Empi ical Sppo Epla nao Poe Toal Toal Psychological Influences Ideological Influences Teoi Pofile 11 1 3 Gop Ideolog 555 15 Pchopaholog 11 1 3 Naciim 12 1 4 Organizational Influences Pcho-Logic 12 2 5 Oganiaional Sie 544 13 Paanoia 11 1 3 Oganiaional Age / Lifeccle 444 12 Leadehip / Sce 544 13 Sociological Influences Opeaional Capabiliie / Re o ce 545 14 Relaie Depiaion 32 2 7 Faion- Agg e ion 12 2 5 External Influences Oppeion 32 2 7 Smbolic Tage / Pa Aack 555 15 Social Ideni 32 3 8 Seci Enionmen 545 14 Challenge / Repone 32 3 8 Tage Poecion 555 15 Saed Tage Vale o Gop 435 12 Instrumental Influences Eenal Sppo / Gop Ne o king 433 10 Saegic Goal 33 3 9 Tage poimi o gop AOR 445 13 Perceptual Influences Pecepion of Capabiliie 224 8 Pecepion of Tage Seci 224 8 118 . T ga e daa a a e e cdeg a g gaaa ce ad e dace f e age g aea f ea. Ge e e f e daae, a acca cde f a ee fac. Te eag fe fac (e.g., deg, age, e, eaa ece, ad e aac f a age) ee defed a e deede aabe f eeac ad eed aga e aac daae. 4.4 Feqenc of Aack in Relaion o Deciion Faco Te fg ec cde e fdg f e aca aa ceed ae e be f eecc face aac acaed eac f e fe eeced dec fac. Te dec fac ee afed b cacag e aca feec f e aac e START-GTD be (2000-2018) b eac fac. Te aac be (521 aac) a e ae eeced f e START-GTD daa ee aac ad bee abed a ecfc e g. T ae a fe dded ae aded ae f aac daa c-adae e e. Te aded ae g ced f e fg: Raded G #1 243 aac Raded G #2 278 aac Te aa f e aac be ad eac f e ae aded ae a cdced deede adae e e. 4.4.1 Ideolog Te f a f e aa a a ca f e ad ae. Te ad ae f deg (G #1 & G #2) ee cacaed deede c-adae e e. Te de-b-de ca aca db aed Fge 6 gge e e dffeece eac ad ae ad eefe ee adae e ea fdg e aed e ee daae. 119 Fge 6. Te G Ideg Raded G #1 & #2 - Ca Te aca feec f aac f e aac be, e cacaed g deg a e deede aabe, efeced 180 (35%) aac f eecc face age b e-aa/eaa g, 142 (27%) aac b eg g (Ia/Jad), 139 (27%) aac b ef-g (Ma/Ma), 54 (10%) aac b cba e-aa/eg g, 4 (0.7%) aac b eea/ge-e g, ad 2 (0.3%) aac b g-g g. Te aac a ae deced Tabe 14 be: Aack of Elecic Inface Goped b Ideolog Ideolog Gop #1 Gop #2 Toal Sbe Reg/Ia 69 73 142 E-Naa/Seaa 83 97 180 Lef/Ma/Ma 63 76 139 Rg Wg 0 2 2 Eea/Sge-Ie 2 2 4 Cb /E-Naa/Reg 26 28 54 Toal Aack 243 278 521 Tabe 14. Aac f Eecc Iface Ged b Ideg 28% 34% 26% 1% 11% Teoi Gop Ideolog (Gop #1) Religio / Ilami Ehno-Naionali / Sepaai Lefi / Mai / Maoi Righ Wing Enionmenal / Single Ie Ehno-Naionali / Religio 26% 35% 27% 1% 1% 10% Teoi Gop Ideolog (Gop #2) Religio / Ilami Ehno-Naionali / Sepaai Lefi / Mai / Maoi Righ Wing Enionmenal / Single Ie Ehno-Naionali / Religio 120 Te aca db b deg deced e ca (Fge 7) be: Fge 7. Saca Db b Ideg Cdeg e degca ae beee e e-aa g ad e cba e-aa/eg g, ee g ae cdaed f e aa be a ge bd caeg. Tee fdg eab e bd caeg feec a 45% f e a aac e be (efe Fge 8). Fge 8. Cdaed Saca Db b Ideg (/bd) 27% 35% 27% 1% 10% Ideolog - Toal Knon Daae - 521 Aack Religio / Ilami Ehno-Naionali / Sepaai Lefi / Mai / Maoi Righ Wing Enionmenal / Single Ie Combo / Ehno-Naionali / Religio 27% 45% 27% 1% Ideolog - Toal Knon Daae - 521 Aack Combining Ethno-Nationalist w/ Combo Groups Religio / Ilami Comb Gop + Ehno- Naionali / Sepaai Lefi / Mai / Maoi Righ Wing Enionmenal / Single Ie 121 We aag eecc face aac e aac be e e, aae a e e-aa g acced f e aac ea, b ee ea f e aa. I e eae ea f e e, ef-g g acced f e a f aac f e ea. Lef-g g ad e aac ea ee ea f e f 12 ea f e ed f e aa, b e ef-g aac eeed ff a aac b e-aa ad eg g bega e a ad 2013. Te e-aa g ad e ge ea a aeage f 9.47 aac e ea, fed b e eg g 7.47 ad e ef-g g 7.32 aac e ea. Te cba eg/e-aa g aeaged 2.84 aac e ea, ad e eag g a aeaged fee a e aac aa. Te be f aac b eac g efeced Tabe 15: 122 Annal Aack of Elecic Inface Goped b Ideolog Yea R E/N LW RW E/S Combo 2000 1 0 4 1 0 1 2001 0 0 7 1 0 1 2002 0 0 10 0 0 1 2003 1 2 7 0 0 5 2004 1 2 2 0 1 0 2005 2 8 2 0 0 0 2006 2 2 1 0 0 0 2007 1 3 2 0 0 1 2008 3 10 16 0 0 4 2009 3 1 12 0 0 9 2010 1 2 12 0 0 0 2011 3 1 8 0 0 0 2012 1 6 9 0 0 3 2013 6 12 7 0 0 2 2014 31 16 10 0 0 5 2015 10 56 8 0 0 15 2016 33 5 6 0 1 4 2017 19 43 6 0 2 2 2018 24 11 10 0 0 1 Sm 142 180 139 2 4 54 Mea 7.4736842 9.4736842 7.315789 0.105263 0.210526 2.842105 Sd De 10.808271 15.005067 3.972861 0.315302 0.535303 3.775111 Legend R Reg E/N E-Naa LW Lef-Wg RW Rg-Wg E/S Eea/Sge Ie Cb Hbd Reg E-Naa Tabe 15. Aa Aac f Eecc Iface Ged b Ideg Fge 9 (be) dec a ed g ef-g g eag eea a a ca ee, a a ceae 2008, e e e-aa g ceae a ag 2014. Sce aac aga a age ceaed dg ae ed, ee deae a ef-g aac ae fag eae ea aac. 123 Fge 9. E-Naa . Lef-Wg I Fge 10, e aeag ea f eg ad e-aa g e aac ca be ee, e e e-aa g ae a e gfca ad ed e. T effec egeed e cg e e-aa g e cba g a ge bd caeg (ee Fge 11). Fge 10. E-Naa . Reg 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 Ehno-Naionali . Lef-Wing E/ L L (E/) L (L) 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 Ehno-Naionali . Religio E/ L (E/) L () 124 Fge 11. E-Naa + Cb G ( Hbid Caego ) . Reg Te eeac ed 20 Ia/Jad g defed 142 aac f eecc face age e be f 2000 g 2018. Te Iac Sae f Ia ad e Lea (ISIL) acced f e 74 aac, c ee cceaed e fe ea f 2014 g 2018. A b ee f ISIL aac cced Ia (3 aac cced Sa). Te Taba fed a 24 aac Afgaa, c ee ead e a ge ee (2003-2018), ad a-Sabaab cdced 11 aac Saa ad Kea f 2011-2018. I a ee cae, ee ae g a ae deaed a gba eac ad ae cdced a aac a eg f e d, e hei aack on elecic inface age ee foced locall in one o o conie each . Te eeac ed 28 e-aa g a acced f 180 aac f eecc face age f 2000 g 2018. Thi a he lage ideological caego eponible fo aack on elecic inface , eceedg eg ef-g ad cba g. Te eadg e-aa g eecc face aac a e Baa Re Naa (BRN) Taad 45 aac, fed b e Bac Rebca A (BRA) Paa 25 aac. Te c f 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 Ehno-Naionali + Combo Gop ( Hybrid Category) . Religio E/ + C L (E/ + C) L () 125 Taad acced f 78 aac cdced b ee g, ad Baca ( Paa) acced f 55 aac ead ac ee dffee g e eg. Ne combination e-aa/eg g acced f 54 aac f eecc face age. M ca g e Pe Iad ed caeg e Baga Iac Feed Mee (BIFM) cdcg 22 aac, fed b e M Iac Lbea F (MILF) 18 aac. B f ee g ee a deede ead f e ec M ee e e Pe (e-aa) ad a ee a adca Ia deg (Reg) (Sa e a., 2010; Baa, 2014). Te eeac gged e ef-g g, c acced f 139 aac. FARC ed a ef-g g 81 aac Cba, cdced beee 2000-2015, afe c FARC eece e eg ad ded cdeab. Te c ae ad e caabe e g caed FARC Dde cdced f aac eecc face 2018. Te Ne Pee A (NPA) e Pe cdced 12 aac, ad e C Pa f Ida (CPI-Ma) cdced e aac. Tee a e ef-g aac eecc face Wee Ee dg e ed f aa. I Mac 2018, e g caed Vage NeHecaf c ad e fe eecca cabe (START-GTD, 2019), cag a ae e age Be, Gea. Te g-g g ebe f aac f eecc face a e Naa U f e Ta Ideedece f Aga (UNITA) aac (e.g., e 2000, ad e 2001). Te g ageed a ba ed b Eea Naca de Eeccdade (ENE), e ae-eaed eecc e f Aga. Te a a aac deed ee geea, ed ee ee, ad eed a age-cae e age ad 126 f ae ece e aea (START-GTD, 2019). Te ecd aac ed ee a daaged eecc gd ce (START-GTD, 2019). Tee ee f aac b eea/ge-e g dg e ed de ega (2000-2018). I 2004, e Caada a-gbaa g Iae de Race Ieaae aaced face ed ad eaed b Hd- Qebec. Te g deaed a ee dece ea a a e, c caed e daage, b eecc e a ded (START-GTD, 2019). I 2016, a c ef ee (START-GTD, 2019) deaed a ceda dece a e ed ad eaed b Naa Gd Tgbg, Maace. Te ee dece a deged c e e ad e e eecc f beee e U.S. ad Caada. Te e a caed a b fe b dd e e cae a e (CBS Ne, 2016; McGa, 2016; U.S. . Ke, 2017; START-GTD, 2019). I 2017, a a-caa g caed Wd Iddae cdced aac aga a Fec eecc de, Eed SA, ee face a daaged ceda dece (START-GTD, 2019). 4.4.2 Gop Age Te ce defed a e g gaaa age a e e f a aac a a ea e dec fac. Te e eaed dec fac ee gaaa age ceae a e g e f aca age. Te aac be a cded b ddg age age 5-ea gg ad fe b-ddg e e ad ae. Te aded ae f gaaa age (G #1 & G #2) ee cacaed deede c-adae e e. Te ed f b ae ad e ee daae ae aed e e ga Fge 12. Te aea eaab a ad aea adae e ea fdg. 127 Fge 12. Te G Age Te g cdcg aac f eecc face e ge feec aea be beee 6 ad 10 ea d a e e f e aac. Te e ge age g a e e-45 caeg. Te e gge a aac eecc face ae e e g e fe ea d. T ed aed Tabe 16 ad Fge 13. 6 29 46 40 6 8 4 15 17 21 51 6 27 65 35 7 17 12 12 21 22 54 12 56 111 75 13 25 16 27 38 43 105 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 A 0 - 5 6 - 10 11 - 15 16 - 20 21 - 25 26 - 30 31 - 35 36 - 40 41 - 45 45+ Teoi Gop Age G #1 G #2 . F 128 Aack of Elecic Inface b Gop Age Age Gop #1 Gop #2 Toal Each Faco U Age 6 6 12 0 - 5 Yea 29 27 56 6 - 10 Yea 46 65 111 11 - 15 Yea 40 35 75 16 - 20 Yea 6 7 13 21 - 25 Yea 8 17 25 26 - 30 Yea 4 12 16 31 - 35 Yea 15 12 27 36 - 40 Yea 17 21 38 41 - 45 Yea 21 22 43 45+ Yea 51 54 105 Toal Aack 243 278 521 Tabe 16. Aac f Eecc Iface b G Age Fge 13. Te G Age Ta K Daae Te age caege ee e egaed age gg eeeg a e ceee age f gaaa age ad beed e e. Sce aae 50% f 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 A 0 - 5 6 - 10 11 - 15 16 - 20 21 - 25 26 - 30 31 - 35 36 - 40 41 - 45 45+ 12 56 111 75 13 25 16 27 38 43 105 AACK TERRORIST GROUP AGE TOTAL KNOWN DATASET 129 e e gaa fa a bed e f ea ad a a aeage f ee ea, ef ca e ge g cae e ae e (V, 2009; P, 2019). G e f fe ea acced f 11% f e aac aga eecc face. Oe e, ee g aeaged 2.9 aac e ea. I ca, g e fe ea d aeaged 23.8 aac e ea. Ee gg g e 35 ea d, e be f eecc face aac ea a 10 e ea. Tabe 17 gaed ee caege e gaa beee 0-5 ea d, g e 5 ea d, ad e e 35 ea d. Te abe ae e aa dffeece eecc face b age. Annal Aack of Elecic Inface Lied b Gop Age Yea </=5 Yea >5 Yea >35 Yea 2000 0 7 3 2001 1 8 4 2002 0 11 10 2003 0 15 7 2004 1 5 3 2005 1 9 4 2006 0 5 1 2007 1 6 2 2008 5 28 11 2009 5 20 10 2010 2 13 12 2011 0 12 5 2012 6 12 8 2013 2 24 6 2014 13 46 11 2015 5 83 28 2016 6 43 4 2017 2 67 44 2018 6 39 13 Mea 2.947368421 23.84210526 9.789473684 Sd De 3.357804908 22.24425808 10.27174629 Tabe 17. Aa Aac f Eecc Iface Led b G Age 130 Te e abe fdg a a de g (> 5 ea) daaca ceaed e feec f aac e e ed eaed , e e ae f aa aac eaed ac f g 5 ea-d e. Fge 14 dec e 19-ea ceae aac b g e 5 ea d. Fge 14. G Age Te fc g cdcg aac f eecc face dg e ed ded ee gg #2 beee 6 ad 10 ea d. T ege f e a acced f 111 aac. I cded g c a a-Sabaab Saa, Bac Lbea A (BLA), Baga Iac Feed Mee (BIFM) e Pe, Iac Sae f Ia ad e Lea (ISIL) Sa ad Ia, Laa-e-Taba (LeT) Paa, ad Rda Ka Kec (RKK) Taad. T gg a fed b e de g e daae (45+ ea) a 105 aac. We cbed caeg #9 (4145 ea d), e a aac f e de g a 148. Te de g e daae cded Bae Faead ad Feed (ETA) Sa, Jaaa-E-Ia (Bagade), Kac Ideedece 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 Gop Age <= 5 Yea . > 5 Yea <=5 > 5 L (<=5 ) L (> 5 ) 131 A (KIA) Maa, Naa Lbea A f Cba (ELN), Paa Ued Lbea Ogaa (PULO) Taad, Rea Aed Fce f Cba (FARC), ad Sg Pa (SL) Pe. 4.4.3 Gop Sie Te ce ed e e f e eae def a e g e a a ea dec fac (Dae, 1998a; McCc, 2003; Acea e a., 2007; Aa & Reeee, 2008). Te e f e e g a ae aaced eecc face aed de f a e-f aac g e a 100 fge, b a cded g ad f ebe. Te aac be a dded e age a acced f a g f 100 e ad e 500-ebe gg 4,000 ebe. Tee a a a caeg f ad f a g a eceeded 4,000 ebe. Te ad ae f g e (G #1 & G #2) ee cacaed deede c-adae e e. Te aca ed f b ae ad e ee daae ae aed e e ga Fge 15. Te ed aea eaab a ad aea adae e ea fdg. 132 Fge 15. Te G Se Aae Nbe f Mebe Te g 4,000 e ebe acced f e age be f aac eecc face f 2000 g 2018 317 aac. Te ec bead f aac b g e deced Fge 16 be. 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 1 - 100 101 - 500 501 - 1000 1001 - 1500 1501 - 2000 2001 - 2500 2501 - 3000 3001 - 3500 3501 - 4000 4000+ A Teoi Gop Sie Appoimae Nmbe of Membe Group #1 Group #2 Total 133 Fge 16. Te G Se Ta K Daae Te daae a egaed ee gg f mall (1-1,000), medim (>1,000- 3,000), ad lage (>3,000), e age g dag 65% f e aac. T db deced e ga (Fge 17). Fge 17. Te G Se - 3 Caeg K Aac Sbe 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 1 - 100 101 - 500 501 - 1000 1001 - 1500 1501 - 2000 2001 - 2500 2501 - 3000 3001 - 3500 3501 - 4000 4000+ 38 18 72 32 4 7 5 7 4 17 317 AACK TERRORIST GROUP SIZE TOTAL KNOWN DATASET 7% 24% 4% 65% Teoi Gop Sie - 3 Caego Knon Aack Sbe Unknon 1 - 1000 1000 - 3000 >3000 134 We aaed e e, e a g (<1,000) aeaged 6.4 aac e ea. I ca, age g e 3,000 ebe aeaged 17.8 aac e ea. Te age g aea be e e aac eecc face. Tabe 18 gaed ee caege a (< 1,000), ed (1,001-3,000), ad age (> 3,000) e gaa, ad e aa be f aac eecc face f eac. Annal Aack of Elecic Inface Aanged b Gop Sie Yea <1,000 M (1,001 - 3,000) L (>3,000) 2000 0 0 7 2001 1 0 8 2002 0 0 11 2003 0 0 15 2004 2 0 3 2005 1 1 5 2006 0 0 3 2007 0 1 5 2008 9 1 23 2009 2 0 22 2010 0 0 14 2011 1 0 11 2012 7 0 8 2013 14 1 11 2014 10 0 43 2015 60 5 19 2016 10 6 32 2017 5 2 61 2018 0 6 37 Mea 6.42 1.21 17.79 Sd De 13.70 2.07 15.55 Tabe 18. Aa Aac f Eecc Iface Aaged b G Se Te be f aac b age g (> 3,000) aea ceae feec e e, e e aac b a g eaed eae ac, ece f 2015 e aac b ee g eeed ea. T ed aed Fge 18. 135 Fge 18. G Se Te baa f aac eecc face a a e e ed f e age (ce 8-10/>3,000 ebe). Tee ee 338 aac e gg. Se f e g eeeed e ed f e ec ae cded Tabe 19: Teoi Gop >3,000 Membe A-Qada e Aaba Pea (AQAP) Lbea Tge f Ta Eea (LTTE) A-Sabaab La Pee Rebc Baa Re Naa (BRN) Ma Ma Baa Pce f e Iac Sae M Iac Lbea F (MILF) C Pa f Ida - Ma (CPI- Ma ) Naa Cc f Defee f Decac (NCDD) C Pa f Nea - Ma (CPN- Ma -Cad) Naa Decac Aace A (NDAA- ESSA) De Pee Rebc Naa Lbea A f Cba (ELN) Fee Ace Mee (GAM) Naa U f e Ta Ideedece f Aga (UNITA) Haa (Iac Reace Mee) Ne Pee A (NPA) H ee (Aa Aa) Paea Iac Jad (PIJ) Iac Sae f Ia ad e Lea (ISIL) Rea Aed Fce f Cba (FARC) Kac Ideedece A (KIA) Saaf G f Peacg ad Fgg (GSPC) Kae Naa U Sa Ued Rea A Kda We Pa (PKK) Taba Laa-e-Taba (LeT) Te--Taba Paa (TTP) Tabe 19. Te G >3,000 Mebe 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 2000 2002 2004 2006 200 2010 2012 2014 2016 201 Gop Sie (1-1,000) M (1,001 - 3,000) L (>3,000) L ( (1-1,000)) L (L (>3,000)) 136 4.4.4 Peio Aack on Elecic Inface Te eae ed a e g ed eea aac a age. (Dae, 1998a; McCc, 2003; Acea e a., 2007; Hffa, 2017). Te aa e ce ae. Eac aac e daae a cded dcae f e aacg g ad e aac (0), e e aac (1), e e aac (2) aga eecc face. Tee ee gg ee aaed ad ae. Te ad ae f e aac eecc face (G #1 & G #2) ee cacaed deede c-adae e e. Te aca ed f b ae ae aed e ga Fge 19. Te ed aea a ad ee adae e ea fdg. Fge 19. Pe Aac Eecc Iface Raded G #1 ad #2 I e aa f e aac be, ee ee 419 eecc face aac defed f e 521 a a ee cdced b g a ad 2 e e a aac. G f eecc face aac ced 65 aac (13%). Tee aac eee 80% f a e eecc face aac e be (efe Fge 20). 12% 7% 81% Peio Aack on E.I. Gop #1 No Peio Aack 1 Peio Aack 2+ Peio Aack 13% 7% 80% Peio Aack on E.I. Gop #2 No Peio Aack 1 Peio Aack 2+ Peio Aack 137 Fge 20. Pe Aac Eecc Iface Ta Daae T fdg eeed gge a g f c aac ee ce eecc face age; ee, e cdeg eab cda babe, ee be g gge a e g e aac ae e cdc fe a aac. Oe e, e aa f aac eeaed a g e eecc face aac aeaged 3.4 aac e ea, e g e e aac aeaged ee fee a 1.95 e ea. I ca, g e e eecc face aac aeaged 22 aac e ea. Tabe 20 ae e ee caege ( e, 1 e, ad 2+ e) f eac ea f e aa. 13% 7% 80% Peio Aack on E.I. Toal Daae No Peio Aack 1 Peio Aack 2+ Peio Aack 138 Annal Aack of Elecic Inface Aanged b he Nmbe of Peio Aack b Gop Yea No Peio 1 Peio 2+ Peio 2000 2 0 5 2001 2 0 7 2002 0 1 10 2003 3 1 11 2004 2 0 4 2005 5 4 3 2006 1 0 4 2007 2 0 5 2008 4 3 26 2009 3 1 21 2010 1 0 14 2011 2 0 10 2012 4 5 10 2013 2 2 23 2014 9 5 48 2015 6 5 78 2016 8 3 38 2017 6 4 62 2018 3 3 40 Mea 3.42 1.95 22.05 Sd De 2.41 1.96 21.65 Tabe 20. Aa Aac f EI Aaged b e Nbe f Pe Aac b G Te g e e eecc face aac eeeed a ge f e aa aac g ea dg e ed f aa. Aac g ee g eded ad g f e aa ed ad aed gfca ea 2008, 2015, ad 2017. Te feec f aac b g e e aac ceaed g e aa ed (2000-2018), e g ee e aac e eaed ac g e ae ed. Tee ed ae deced Fge 21. 139 Fge 21. Pe Aac f Eecc Iface 4.4.5 Gop Opeaional Capabiliie and Reoce T eeac aaed e e f a g eaa caabe ad ece eaed ageg dec. Secfca, e e eaed ee ee e ac abdace f eaa ece a feced e eec f eecc face a a age. T e a aaed g e feec f e eecc face aac b g ag ee f eaa ece. Eac eecc face aac e be a cded f e g eaa ece ee. Cdg eac g eaa ece a baed a 1-10 cae, 1 beg e e be ag ad 10 beg e ge be ag. Te ag ee baed a bece aee ad aggega f e fg eee: Aa eee ($USD) if knon. Sce f eee Nbe f ebe Seg f eade Acce ea/e f ea ed Sae Aace /e g S f e ca a Acce ad e f ecg 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2+ Peio Aack . <2 Aack 2+ <2 L (2+ ) L (<2 ) 140 Te ag ee edcaed a de da f ea ece, cdg aa eee agg beee e f ad f da e $1 b e ea. Sa, e g ad a fe ded fge ad acce ea, e e g ad ad f ebe ad acce aed ece ad gded ce. Tee eae cded dffeece ca , aage, ae , ad acce caed ecge. Te aged ec ae f eac g a aaed aga e aac be deee e aca feec f a aac. Te cded aac ee dded ad ae ad aaed deede c-adae e aa. Fge 22 ad Fge 23 eea a ae. Fge 22. Te G Rece Ta (Rad G #1) 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 12 3 45 6 78 9 10 2 17 37 15 6 11 1 33 11 89 ATTACKS Teoi Gop Reoce (Gop #1) 141 Fge 23. Te G Rece Ta (Rad G #2) Te eaa ece caege ee cbed ad cdaed ee age gg (, ed, ad g). Te ad ae a ae, ag ee ee e g ae #2 ece, c aced e ea ac. Te dffeece ee eg adae e aa. Te aca aa f b ae ggeed a g e ge eaa ece ee ebe f a dae g be f aac (efe Fge 24 ad Fge 25). Fge 24. Te G Rece Sac (Rad G #1) 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 123 45 678 9 10 5 23 38 21 4 17 3 30 5 93 ATTACKS Teoi Gop Reoce (Gop #2) 9% 23% 13% 55% Teoi Gop Reoce (Gop #1) Unknon Lo Medim High 142 Fge 25. Te G Rece Sac (Rad G #2) We eag e be f aac (521 aac), ee a age f aac b e g g eaa ece (182 aac). G g ece ced (ee 8-10) acced f 50% f e aac ad ee e e e e cdc aac a a e ge caeg. Te be f aac baed ece aed Fge 26, ad e aca feece ae deced Fge 27. Fge 26. G Oeaa Rece Ta K Daae 14% 24% 16% 46% Teoi Gop Reoce (Gop #2) Unknon Lo Medim High 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 UNKNOWN LEVEL 1 LEVEL 2 LEVEL 3 LEVEL 4 LEVEL 5 LEVEL 6 LEVEL 7 LEVEL 8 LEVEL 9 LEVEL 10 60 7 40 75 36 10 28 4 63 16 182 Aack Gop Opeaional Reoce Toal Knon Daae 143 Fge 27. G Oeaa Rece Ta K Sbe G f a e ece caege ed a ceae e feec f aac aga eecc face e eeac ed. Te ede gge a eee ceae e e f e g caeg a e e. T ed aed Fge 28. 12% 23% 15% 50% Gop Opeaional Reoce Toal Knon Sbe Unknon Lo Medim High 144 Fge 28. Oeaa Rece We aag e daa e e, e g e g caeg aeaged 13.7 aac e ea, c a e a e e caege cbed (efe Tabe 21). 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 Opeaional Reoce L M H L (L) L (H) 145 Annal Aack of Elecic Inface Aanged b Gop Reoce Yea Lo Medim High 2000 0 0 7 2001 2 1 6 2002 1 0 10 2003 1 0 13 2004 2 2 1 2005 1 3 3 2006 0 2 1 2007 0 0 6 2008 7 5 20 2009 2 2 21 2010 0 1 13 2011 0 0 11 2012 5 1 7 2013 2 10 10 2014 6 3 41 2015 40 21 18 2016 3 11 28 2017 39 10 19 2018 11 6 26 Mea 6.42 4.11 13.74 STDe 12.01 5.46 10.33 Tabe 21. Aa Aac f Eecc Iface Aaged b G Rece 4.5 Hpohei Teing and Saiical Significance H1: Phical aack of elecic inface ae moe likel o hae been condced b ehno-naionali/epaai eoi gop han an of he ohe ideological gop. Te e g e ge feec f aac aga eecc face eeac ee e eg, e-aa, ad ef-g g. T e e e a e e-aa g ae e e ae aaced eecc face age, - e ee cdced cag e aac ac f e e-aa g eac f e e g. Te -e e dcae a aca gfca dffeece beee e 146 e-aa g ad e ef-g g (ee Tabe 23); ee, e -e e dd dcae a gfca aca dffeece beee e e-aa g ad e eg g (ee Tabe 22). Baed e -e aed Tabe 22 ad Tabe 23, ee ffce edece eec e e (H 0). Teefe, e (H1) ed. Tee aca gfca dffeece beee eecc face aac cdced b e-aa g ad b f e e g ebe f e ge ee f aac (e.g., eg ad ef-g e g). -Te: To-Samle Aming Uneal Vaiance H1 - E -Naa . Reg E/N R Mea 9.47 7.47 Vaace 225.15 116.81 Obea 19 19 Heed Mea Dffeece 0 df 18 Sa 1.67 P(T<=) e -a 0.051 Cca e -a 1.69 P(T<=) -a 0.110 Cca -a 2.03 E/N = Ehno-Naionali Go R = Religio Go Tabe 22. H1 E-Naa . Reg -Te 147 -Te: To-Samle Aming Uneal Vaiance H1 E -Naa . Lef -Wg E/N LW Mea 9.47 7.31 Vaace 225.15 15.78 Obea 19 19 Heed Mea Dffe ece 0 df 18 Sa 2.21 P(T<=) e -a 0.024 Cca e -a 1.72 P(T<=) -a 0.048 Cca -a 2.08 E/N = Ehno -Naionali Go LW = Lef -Wing Go Tabe 23. H1 E-Naa . Lef-Wg -Te Te -e a eeaed b cbg e aac ac f e e-aa g e ac f e cba f e-aa/eg g e bd caeg. Te -e caed ac f bd caeg e eg g ad deaed aca dffeece (ee Tabe 25). T fdg ed a aeae e a e e g e bd caeg ae e e aac eecc face a a e g. 148 -Te: To-Samle Aming Uneal Vaiance H1 Hbd . Reg E/N + Combo R Mea 12.31 7.47 Vaace 309.34 116.82 Obea 19 19 Heed Mea Dffeece 0 df 18 Sa 3.85 P(T<=) e -a 0.0005 Cca e -a 1.69 P(T<=) -a 0.001 Cca -a 2.04 E/N + Combo = Ehno -Naionali/Religio Hbid Caego R = Religio Go Tabe 24. H1 Hbd . Reg -Te H2: Phical aack of elecic inface ae moe likel o be condced b eoi gop ha hae been in eience fo moe han fie ea. Te e g e ge feec f eecc face aac eeac ee g a ad bee eece f e a fe ea. Baed e -e deced Tabe 25, ee ffce edece eec e e (H 0). Teefe, e e (H2) ed. -Te: To-Samle Aming Uneal Vaiance H2 >5 Yea . <=5 Yea >5 Yea <=5 Yea Mea 23.84 2.95 Vaace 494.81 11.27 Obea 19 19 Heed Mea Dffeece 0 df 18 Sa 4.05 P(T<=) e -a 0.0003 Cca e -a 1.73 P(T<=) -a 0.0006 C ca -a 2.09 Tabe 25. H2 >5 Yea . <=5 Yea -Te 149 H3: Phical aack of elecic inface ae moe likel o be condced b eoi gop ih moe han 3,000 membe. Te e g e ge aca feec f eecc face aac eeac ee g e a 3,000 ace ebe a e e f e aac. Te -e, deced Tabe 26, deae ffce edece eec e e (H 0). Teefe, e e (H3) ed. -Te: To-Samle Aming Uneal Vaiance H3 >3,000 . 1 -3,000 >3,000 1-3,000 Mea 17.79 7.63 Vaace 241.84 219.36 Obea 19 19 Heed Mea Dffeece 0 df 18 Sa 2.06 P(T<=) e -a 0.023 Cca e -a 1.69 P(T<=) -a 0.046 Cca -a 2.03 Tabe 26. H3 >3,000 . 1-3,000 -Te H4: Phical aack of elecic inface ae moe likel o be condced b eoi gop ha hae 2 o moe peio aack again imila age. Te eae g ggeed a e g ed eea aac a age (Dae, 1998a; McCc, 2003; Acea e a., 2007; Hffa, 2017). Te eeac eeed a dea. Te e g e ge aca feec f eecc face aac eeac ee g 2 e e aac eecc e. Te -e, deced Tabe 27, eab ffce edece eec e e (H 0). Teefe, e e (H4) ed. 150 -Te: To-Samle Aming Uneal Vaiance H4 2+ Pe . <2 Pe Aac 2+ Peio <2 Peio Mea 22.05 5.37 Vaace 468.83 17.13 Obea 19 19 Heed Mea Dffeece 0 df 18 Sa 3.29 P(T<=) e -a 0.001 Cca e -a 1.73 P(T<=) -a 0.003 Cca -a 2.09 Tabe 27. H4 2+ Pe . <2 Pe Aac -Te H5: Phical aack of elecic inface ae moe feqenl condced b eoi gop ih geae opeaional eoce (e.g., a combinaion of eene, acce o ophiicaed eapon, e of echnolog, ae o paon ppo, and popla local ppo). Te e g e ge aca feec f eecc face aac eeac ee e g e ge ee f eaa ece. T e e e a g eaa ece caaceed a high ee e e ae aaced eecc face age a e e caege, -e ee cdced (efe Tabe 28 ad Tabe 29). Te -e e dcae a aca gfca dffeece beee e g a high ee f ece caed e a lo ee f ece (ee Tabe 28). Sa, e -e e a eabed a gfca aca dffeece beee e g a high ee f ece caed e a medim ee f ece (ee Tabe 29). Baed e -e e aed Tabe 28 ad Tabe 29, ee ffce edece eec e e (H 0). Teefe, e (H5) ed. 151 -Te: To-Samle Aming Uneal Vaiance H5 Hg . L Rece High Lo Mea 13.74 6.42 Vaace 106.76 144.26 Obea 19 19 Heed Mea Dffeece 0 df 18 Sa 2.13 P(T<=) e -a 0.024 Cca e -a 1.69 P(T<=) -a 0.048 Cca -a 2.03 Tabe 28. H5 Hg . L Rece -Te -Te: To-Samle Aming Uneal Vaiance H5 Hg . Med Rece High Medim Mea 13.73 4.11 Vaace 106.76 29.77 Obea 19 19 Heed Mea Dffeece 0 df 18 Sa 3.59 P(T<=) e -a 0.0006 Cca e -a 1.70 P(T<=) -a 0.001 Cca -a 2.05 Tabe 29. H5 Hg . Med Rece -Te 4.6 Baeian Anali Pobabiliic Tool I ee Reeac Qe #4 ad e fdg , e fg Baea ed/babc eeed ec. T ed eeed ee af ad cacae e eaed bab a a aca ea-ac ce eecc face a a age f aac. P ad cda babe ee eabed g e feec f a aac f e 19 ea f e begg f 2000 g e ed f 2018, a eeed e fdg cae. A e f f Baea aa a deeed 152 acc a (Se, 2013). T aa a de ae, ag e eabe f a bab. T ae ed e aca feec f a eecc face aac eab e a ed. T a eae f ed a daed a cda bab g e aca feec f eecc face f aac f eac dec fac. We cdeg e ea bab f a aac ageg eecc face, e d cde e ae f e eac f dda fac (e.g., deg, g age, e, ece, ad e a aac) a cbe e ea dec. Te eec f a age f a aac e a ce eac f a ce (dec fac). T ee f eac a bee afed ec a e aca feec f e aac baed eac fac. Te eeac ed e deee f a e f c a babc aa g Mcf Ece Baeian Neok . Te e f e bega b eabg a bab a a g eec eecc face a e deed age f aac. T bab a baed e aca feec f ca aac. Te a eed a ae f e cda bab eae baed e eceage f e aac ge a a aca fac (aabe). A eae f a cda eae d e a eecc face aac cced (2000-2018), ge a e aacg g a f e-aa deg. T eeed a P(IDS/EI) e bab f e defed deg ( cae, e- aa) ge a eecc face aaced. T e cda bab aee. Te cda bab ae a ed b e bab dce a bab. Te ae caca a efed eae e bab a a 153 e-aa g eec a age ohe a eecc face. Tee babe ee added gee dce e f babe. Te fa caca e f ea f e aa a dde e bab f a eecc face aac ad a e-aa g b e f e babe. T caca dced a e ae, c a e daed eae f e bab f e fac de cdea. T ce a eeaed f e e dec fac (aabe) g e e ae f e ee f aa a e e ae (Ke & S, 2011; Se, 2013). A aca aa f e START-GTD aac daa f 1970-2018 a efed deee a ae f ea eecc face aac. Te ea f e ee daae (1970-2018) a eabed a 0.024. Te e-2000 daa (1970-1999) ad a ge ea f 0.033, ad e 2000-2018 daa a cacaed a 0.0096. Tee ae ee eabed a e d-, e bd, ad e bd f eabg a ae. Te dec f c ae e a a a accdg e aa eee ab e g de cdea. Te eeac a a baed 0.02 a e bab eae. Ag a a bece eae, a fed b e aca aa f e daa. Te eae f cda bab ee baed e aca feec f aac a eeed e fdg f ad ae deced Tabe 30: 154 Condiional Pobabili Eimae Ideolog Vale Age Vale Sie Vale Reoce Vale Peio Aack Vale E-Naa/ Reg Hbd 0.45 0-15 0.46 Sa 0-1000 0.24 L 0.23 N e 0.13 Reg /Jad 0.27 16-35 0.16 Med >1,000 3,000 0.04 Med 0.15 1 Pe 0.07 Lef -Wg /Ma 0.27 35+ 0.36 Lage >3,000 0.65 Hg 0.5 2+ Pe 0.8 Rg -Wg 0.003 Eea/ Sge Ie 0.007 Tabe 30. Cda Pbab Eae 4.6.1 Anali Simlaion Te Mcf Ece a ed ae a babc aa f a eca eae e g, g e bab f 0.02 ad e cda babe f Tabe 30. I e eae deced Fge 29 ad Fge 30, e aa ed a g a e-aa deg a a 10 ea d, 3,500 ebe, ad a g eaa ece ee. Te g ad f e aac eecc face. A e e aac cced e a 12 , ad eea eecc ba ee ageed. Oe c ba a ag e age e aac b e g. Te fe ee f aa ee baed afed ae eeaced f e START-GTD daa. Te cda bab ae ee eabed f e feec f e aac eecc face age. 155 I e f ee ee f cda aa (Fge 29) f e e-aa g a, e bab, cda bab, ad babe ee ed cacae e ae, aed e fa-g c e ed be. Afe cdeg e deg, age, ad e f e g, e e ae 0.0257. Fge 29. Baea Cda Pbab Tea Mde Aa Lee 1-3 Oce e g eaa ece ad e be f e aac eecc face ee faced e aa e f ad ff ee (Fge 30), e e ae a cacaed be 0.0956. Fge 30. Baea Cda Pbab Tea Mde Aa Lee 4-5 156 Sce egece aa ae e f cdg e dec fac e aa, baed e eee ad bece edge f e g de cdea, babc aa cd cde e adda ee. 4.7 Smma U eeg e fdg cae, e aa eeaed a g f gaaa ad eea fece dae acaed e feec f eecc face aac b e g. Te deg, age, e, ad ece f a e g eeed a a e eecg eecc face a a egae age. Fe , e e g a ce ee age e a cca ee e e eea c aac. E-aa, eg, ad ef-g g cece acced f 88% f e aac e d. Ta fge e 98% e e e-aa ae cdaed e e-aa/eg cba g. Te g-g, eea, ad ge-e g acced f a e e a 1% f e aac. Tee ee degca g bea 180 (35% 9.5 aac e ea) aac b e- aa/eaa g, 142 (27% 7.5 aac e ea) aac b eg g (Ia/Jad), ad 139 (27% f 7.5 aac e ea) aac b ef-g g (Ma/Ma). We cdag e e-aa g e cb/bd (e-aa/eg) g, ee ee 234 a aac e d, c acced f 45% 12.3 aac e ea. Te age f e e g d eeed ced e feec f eecc face aac. I geea, e feec f aac ceaed de g, 87% f aac cdced b a g e fe ea eece ad 65% b 157 g f e a e ea d. Te 46 e g e d e a fe ea eece acced f 23.8 aac e ea (453 a aac) eg e e be f aac cdced b g a ad bee eece f fe ea e. Te 32 age e g, defed d a a g e a 3,000 ace ebe, acced f 65% f a aac aga eecc face. Tee age g aeaged 17.8 aac e ea f 338 aac, c e a ce e be f aac cdced b g 3,000 ebe e. Te e g a g ee f eaa ece, a defed d, acced f e af e aac. Te 19 e g a aded caeg acced f 261 aac 13.7 e ea, ce e be f aac cdced b a-ed g ad ee e e be f aac b ed-ed g. Te ge- eae fac acaed e ge feec f eecc face aac a e defca f e aac a age. T e e a age a deaed e fdg. Te 35 e g 2 e e eecc face aac acced f e a 80% f e aac e d. Te e g a fe 2--e caeg acced f 419 aac aae 22 aac e ea. Te fdg eeaed a ee e g 2 e e aac ee 11 e e e cdc a aac a g 1 aac. Te fdg eeac gge de ad age e g ge ee f eaa ece a ae aaced ee age befe, a e fc ac ageg eecc face. We feg e daa f a f f ee fac, e aa eabed a e g e fe ea eece, e 3,000 ebe, ag a 158 g age f eaa ece, ad 2 e e aac cded 12 dffee g ad acced f 230 f e 521 aac44%. 159 Chape 5: Dicion 5.1 Inodcion Cae 5 cae e daa aa e a bade dc f e ca f aeg e ea f fe aac. T cae a dce eac f e fe eeac e eeed Cae 1 f . Te dc f R5 cde a a f a babc aa g a deeed Mcf Ece. Te a f e eeac ae a eed. Tee a ae eeed be aae ab be fa ad bae e de. Te eff gae ee a ae dced a a ce. Te cae ccde a dc f be fe eeac ad e ca f e acce. 5.2 Dicion of Reeach Qeion Research Question #1: How serious is the threat of a physical attack on the U.S. electric power grid by a sub-state threat-actor? T eeac e (R1) a eeed adde e abdace f e a ae a eee , e cae, a e ea f aac e U.S. eecc e gd. Sca eca edece a bee ffeed ae. T ec ae e eeac e b eeg ac e feec f aac f 2000 g 2018 (19 ea). Te aca aa dced ec baed e fdg Cae 4. I a eec, e aa e cc a e ea f eecc face aac gfca. T cc ed b e ead 19-ea ceae e feec f c aac. T ead e e aac aga eecc face e e 19 ea a caed b a 244% ceae 2008, fed b a a ceae e e e ee ea. A ea 2016, eecc face aac ad 160 ceaed b 2,512% caed aac 2000. Te ceae aac e e 19 ea ca be caaceed a baa. Sa, aac f eeg face geea (ga, & eecc cece) eaed 2014 b fed a a ed. Te be f b eeg ad eecc face ecfc aac deced 2017 ad 2018, e ee afe e 2016 ea, e be f aac eaed e abe e e ea ea. Te aac b a g aga a age dg e ae ed fed a aae ed, g a beee 2005 ad 2014 befe eeg. Tee ee 426% e e aac 2018 a 2000. Te age a ee a e ea f eecc face aac ee be eaeed b a. Te gca e ee e ceae eecc face aac a fc f e ea ceae aac aga a age. Te a f face aac ea aac a eaed eae ca a 2% e. Research Question #2: What are the relevant organizational and environmental decision factors that influence the selection of electric infrastructure as an attack target by a sub-state terrorist group? Te ea-aa cg a Cae 4 de a f dec fece be cdeed e aeg e ea f eecc face aac. Te defed fac e a gaaa, eea, ad age caacec ca edc dec ad age aacee. Te aa ege a beef a a e g aed ee a aca age ad e ec ee a a age cd be g edc f aac, b e eeded af ee fac. Sa, e gegac dace e age ad e g aegc ga a fece age eec, 161 b eeac faed af e aec. Me eeded ee ee aec f e g dec eae eecc face age. T dd dce afed ae f e ed f eecc face aac baed a e g a deg, age, e, eaa ece, ad e aac f a age. Research Question #3: How can a set of decision factors be quantified? Te dec fac ca be afed b cacag e aca feec f ca eecc face aac b eac fac. I , e ae ee eabed b cdg e aac daae eac dec fac c a e age e f a e g ad cacag e feec f a aac ee eac f ee fac a ee. T caca a ed ae e aa eab a ea ae f cda bab ad dead aca ed e daa. F ace ee a dec fac cd be cded e daa, ad e aca feec f a aac cd be ece cacaed, a eae f bece beef cd be ed eab cda bab. Te baee bab ae a eae f e ed a a aca e g eec a aca age, c a eecc face, e e cce. T ae ca be cacaed g e aca feec f a aac aga a aca age. Le e cda bab ae, e ae ca a be eaed baed a bece beef e ac ae aaabe. Research Question #4: What is the likelihood that a particular threat-actor will choose electric infrastructure as a target for attack? I ee Reeac Qe #4, eeed a ed af ad cacae e eaed bab a a aca ea-ac ce eecc face 162 a a age f aac. P ad cda babe ee eabed g e feec f a aac f e 19 ea f e begg f 2000 g e ed f 2018. I e fdg f , e Baea babc ded a ed af eaed ae, edce cea, ad ae e ea f a g aga a age a g a e deg aca eeac efed eab babe ad cda babe. Ta ad, e abece f aca feec f e aac, ee ae ca a be eabed g e eca f egece ee a ae bee e-cabaed eae babe. Ee be e-cabaed e e ca eae bab age ee e ae a ea 90% cfdece a e aca bab f eac fac fa e aed age (Vg, 2005; Hbbad & Seee, 2016). Wee g e aca feec f a aac, ee eca a 90% cfdece ea, a cba f b ece f eabg ad cda babe, e ca be ef f eabg ea. Te ae aa ca a be efed eae e ea f e eece. F eae, e aa ca edc e eaed g f aac e e acc be eed b e g() de cdea. Te fdaa ac be eeaced ad eabed def e g edece f e cdc aac c acc e. Oce ee e ae ceed, e aca feece ca be cbed ee eae e e . 5.3 Inepeaion and Dicion of Saiical Finding Te aca fdg gge ae cceg e f e eecc face aac baed e ebe e g dec fac. Te aa f e daa ecfca eaed e age, e, ad eaa ece f a 163 e gaa eeaed dcebe aca edece. Sa bea ee ade e eag e be f eea aac eecc face age b dda g. Te age f e e g e aa a a ae fac aac ed e daae. T deea a baed a caca f e ea f a g fdg e ed e e g cdced eecc face aac. Tee ee 453 aac (accg f 87% f e a) cdced b 46 dffee g a ee e a fe ea d. Ee e 35 dffee g a ee e e ea d acced f e 65% f aac. Te ac gge a e g a ae bee eece f e fe ea ae e e cdc ca aac eecc face age. A cea beee e e f e g ad e be f eecc face aac a a beed. Lage g (> 3,000 ebe) ced a gfca f aac ad acced f e aac a e ae g (<= 3,000 ebe). Te g e a 500 ebe cdced 393 aac (75%), g e 1,500 ebe cdced 357 aac (68%), ad ee g a ebe f e 3,000 acced f 338 aac (65%). Te ac gge a age e g ae e e cdc ca aac aga eecc face age. Te daa gge a e g geae eaa ece acced f a age ae f e aac aga eecc face. Te age g ae defed a e geae ea ea ee, aa eee, c ce f eee, e eg f ebe, a f eade, acce caed ea, a , aage, ad acce ecg. Te e gaa e aa ee ged g ee cea, ad e ee age gg ee cbed ce e g caeg. T 164 caeg cded 19 e gaa ebe f 261 eecc face aac (>50%). T bee dead a e eeac eeaed egadg eaa ece, cde e g a e e ed f e ec, c eaed beee $25 ad $1 b e ea (Zea, 2014 & 2018; Jae Wd Igec & Te, 2019). Ma f ee ae g a eed ae ad ad gfca e acce caed ea (Jae Wd Igec & Te, 2019). Ha caa a a cdeed a a cb eaa ece. G ebe aged f a fe ded fge e cae f e Baga Iac Feed Mee (BIFM) e 10,000 fge g c a e Iac Sae Sa ad De Pee Rebc e Uae (Jae Wd Igec & Te, 2019). I e cae f e De Pee Rebc, e ae a Ra ae-ed g fgg e Uae aae $500 aa eee ad acce aed ece ad e caed ea (Hcb, 2017; Jae Wd Igec & Te, 2019). Ma f e e g a e ed f e ec eed ed ee, fed a aace egbg g, ade e e f ecg, ad a ed a a ac a-cae aac. G eceg a ea ce e g ed f e age (ce 8-10) cded a-Qaeda, a-Sabaab, De Pee Rebc, Haa, e Iac Sae, Kda We Pa (PKK), Laa-e-Taba (LeT), Naa Lbea A f Cba (ELN), Naa U f e Ta Ideedece f Aga (UNITA), M Iac Lbea F (MILF), Ta Tge (LTTE), Rea Aed Fce f Cba (FARC), e Taba, Te-- Taba Paa (TTP), ad La Pee Rebc. Tee g ee ag e fee aac eecc face. 165 Ae fac a eeged f e daa aa a e feec f eecc face aac eae e be f e aac aga a age. G e e aac eecc age ee eeg e e e ee e f age. Te daa eeaed a g e e aac eeaed eecc face aac a a ae 11 e e a g e aac. Tee eea aac eee 419 f e 521-aac ae (> 80%). T-fe dffee e g cdced ee aac. Tee ac gge a e g e e eecc face aac ae e e eea ca aac a age. T g eceage f ea aac eeed ee gge a g f c aac ee ce eecc face age. I 65 f 521 ace, e g ad aac eecc face. T eeac eabe a de ad age e g geae eaa ece ad aac ee age ae e fc ac ageg eecc face. We feg e daa f a f fac, e aa eabe a e g e fe ea eece, e 3,000 ebe, a g age f eaa ece, ad e e aac, cded 12 dffee g ad acced f 230 f 521 aac44%. Tee aac cced Afgaa, Aga, Cba, Ida, Ia, Kea, Naba, Paa, Pe, Saa, S Laa, Sa, ad Te. Te e gaa a eeged a f e aa cded a-Sabaab, e C Pa f Ida (Ma), Iac Sae f Ia ad e Lea (ISIL), Kda We Pa (PKK), Lbea Tge f Ta Eea (LTTE), M Iac Lbea F (MILF), Naa Lbea A f Cba (ELN), Naa U f e Ta Ideedece f Aga 166 (UNITA), Rea Aed Fce f Cba (FARC), Te--Taba Paa (TTP), ad e Taba. Te aa gge a egece aa d ge e g a ce g a e caege eed abe geae c. Te aca ae ae bee deaed f e ba f babc aa ae ad af ea e ece. Wee ee fac ffe a edce de debaabe, b e aca ae f e aac baed ee fac ae a eaabe ag f eabg a cda bab. 5.3.1 Ideological Tend Anali Te aca aa effecaed eed ae egadg e g f a degca bacgd ad e e eec eecc face a a egae age f aac. Ideg a a a fac cde, ad e f e e-dceed dec fece ded e eae. T dec fac a ce eaed ad eca ed eea de (Dae, 1998a & 1998b; P e a., 2002a; McCc, 2003; Vcff, 2005; Acea e a., 2007; Aa & Reeee, 2008; Tf e a., 2010; Aed, 2018b). Teefe, e aa defed e g ebe f e aac ad dded e degca caege cdg eg, e-aa, ef-g, g-g, eea/ge-e, ad a cba (bd) f e-aa ad eg. Te aa eeaed 180 (35%) aac aga eecc face age b e- aa/eaa g, 142 (27%) aac b eg g (Ia/Jad), 139 (27%) aac b ef-g (Ma/Ma), 54 (10%) aac b cba e- aa/eg g, 4 (0.7%) aac b eea/ge-e g, ad 2 (0.3%) 167 aac b g-g g. We cbg e e-aa g e cb/bd (e-aa/eg) g, ee ee 234 (45%) aac. Tee ae a degca ae beee e e-aa ad ee bd g, cbg e e caeg aae f aag e daa. 5.3.2 Shaed chaaceiic We e age degca caeg ebe f eecc face aac ed e e-aa/eaa g, ef bed degca dffeece ad cde e aed caacec f a dege. Dg eeac, a eeg ed eeged f e daa cceg e aed caacec f g a c ac degca caege. Te g a g caacec f dffee dege eeed aac eecc face e ge feec. Tee aed caacec cded g a eed ad ed gegac e. Ma f ee g a e aeae f f gee ce ad ded ca ece e a de e c. I a ee, e g ebe f e age be f eecc face aac aed a f ee caacec, egade f e eae cafed e deg. Te e-aa g e eecc face aac ee e Baa Re Naa (BRN) Taad 45 aac ad e Bac Rebca A (BRA) Paa 25 aac. B f ee g eed ad ed e eab a ead f e ee f e ec eage. I e cae f e Baa Re Naa, e Paa eg f e Taad e fc, e e Bac Rebca A cce f e Baca eg f Paa. B g ae e a- geea ce ad ded ca ece e ca a. Tee 168 caacec ae c f eaa g eeg deedece. Te Baa Re Naa ad Bac Rebca A ae a deeed a effece aeg f dcedg e eabed gee e aea f ea b aacg eecc e face. Te e g e bd eg-eaa cba caeg e eecc face aac a e Baga Iac Feed Mee (BIFM) 22 aac. T g deg ea feced b e M eg de, ad e cd ea be cafed a a Ia g. Jae Wd Igec & Te (2019) cafe BIFM a b eg ad eaa. Le e e-aa g, BIFM a d e ad de ece f ca a. Seea M ca g e Pe Iad ca be cded dec, ad e a fee aac eecc face. Te da eg g ebe f eecc face aac e Iac Sae (ISIS), 74 aac. ISIS dce f a e Ia g a e eed a e Ia, e a-geea ce, ad ded a aa f ca ece ca S a. Te a-Qaeda g Yee ad Agea eee a e ada M e g de ad acced f aac. Dee bc aee b a-Qaeda ad e aegc gc f aacg eeg face, ee ae bee fe aac (Tf, De & Beaa, 2010). Te ef-g g e eecc face aac a e Rea Aed Fce f Cba (FARC) 81 aac. Te ea ga ad a-gee ae f g e c-degca ae f g e aacg eecc face (Jae Wd Igec & Te, 2019; CISAC, 2019). Te Cc Heec Affa (2010) ed a a a f Cba, ab e aea 169 ea e Aa, e FARC a fc a e gee (aa. 21). T gge a ef-g g ca a ae caacec e-aa ad eaa g. Tee caacec ee be ece a f e g a aac eecc face geae feec. T ee a ca e aeg e ea ea f dec g. F eae, e e-Na g Aaffe D a bee eag e Ued Sae f ea fe ea, ad e ae eeed e aac e e gd (T, W & Haaa, 2018; Cabe, 2020). Dee e bc aee, Aaffe D a e f e degca gaaa caacec a gge e d ef c aac. Te d ee ae e eaa ece cdc aac, c d e a g ac e e gd. Aaffe D a e aeed a aac aga eecc face. Cdeg e aed ee e eecc gd a a egae age, gca ae e ea f c a aac. Te ea cd ceae a e g ae ad g b e ad ece. Ug e de f eeac cd ee af ea. 5.4 Limiaion and Recommendaion fo Fe Reeach I a acedge e a f d a e fdg ca be eece. We eea f e fdg d ee ead e acadec eae ea aee ad f e acce f cca face ec, e fa. I e cae, ee a ca f cca eea f e fdg, ad e cae, e ee gg e eed f fe eeac. Se f ee e be deeaed ec. 170 5.4.1 Limiaion of Uing Global Aack Daa Dg e gd edae ecedg eeac, a aecda aa a cdced dec eecc face aac e Ued Sae. Oe ce ad e eda daa ee eaed ceae a f dec aac f eecc face ad ae. T eeaed a eae a be f dec aac, f c ee abed a ecfc g dda. Te ed be f aac ee eea ee defed eeaed a bad ad ce age f aace. Cdeg e ac f dec daa, eaed eaa aac aga eecc face. Te aaabe daa eaa aac eeed a aae a aca gfca cec f fa. Te e f e START-GTD daabae a a beac becae e daa ed aac b e g a defed b START eeace. Te daabae, f ce, ecde aac b e ca ad -ae ac. Aga, START-GTD a c ce f eabe daa, e a ee a acceabe aac e e . Te ee eeac aed a a aa f gba aac a aabe deadg e dec ea f a g. T a ccaed b e a de f ca, ca, ad ec ee e a ca ee ee aac cced. T g gae a b eadg e aa e a a geca e a ecaed daa f 38 dffee ce 10 dffee eg f e d. T cded cfc e, fag ae, ad aaa ege, e e Ued Sae, b a cded decace ad e abe gee eae. Hef, e e f e daae, e a gegac e ecaed, ad e de f ee eed adde ee a. 171 5.4.2 Anali of Teoi Gop a a Po fo Sb-Sae Aco Becae f e edae aaab f e g aac daa, eeac eaed e aac a a f e b-ae ac caabe f eecg a aac. Ag e eae ade e gca cec beee e g, ada ca ac, ad e ca ac cceg -ead aee ad aa fac, e ca ae beac (Cae & Nea, 2006; Mace & G, 2018; Mace, Baa, & G, 2018). Te dege ad gaaa ce d ag e ca gaa ad e ca ac. T gae a, eeac eaed e ed f cecg ad aag e daa bed e dda fdg. Had e daae bee fced gaed ce ca ac g, e fac aeed e eeac d ae bee eeced ad cded dffee. Hee, e ed f e aca aa ad eabg cda bab ae d ae bee ce. 5.4.3 The Omiion of Cbe-Aack T eeac fced ecfca ca aac f face ad ed cbe- aac. Cdeg e eegg ea f cbe-aac aga a face ad da c e, dea. Te eeac d dbed ae beefed f e c f cbe-aac e aa. Ufae, cbe-aac aga eecc e ea de-eed e daa f a eaa ec ea (Mae & Waa, 2013). 5.4.4 Decopling of Thea fom Coneqence T eeac eaed e ed f aac a, decg e ceece f c aac f e aa. Se f e aac e daae ee 172 eae a, ed a ad fca ac. Te aa a ed age aac gfca ac. Te aaed daa cded a aac eecc face dg e ed de ee. O 14 f e 521 eecc face aac e daae eed daage abe $1 . Ne f e aac eceeded $1 b. O 24 f e aac eed faae. I ca be aged a ea ad ceece d be deced ad ded eaae becae a gd edc f age aac e U.S. T a ad cce, ad e eeac d be eed a d. 5.4.5 Need fo Addiional Coding of START-GTD Daa Te aca de ggeed eeac f e aa f e aac ad babc aee f fe aac cd be aed a age f e dec fac f e START-GTD daabae cded e. Pe de ae ggeed a age eec dec ae feced a b e degee f ca ec f e age de cdea ad e gegac dace ecea ae a age (Aa, Reeee e a., 2009; G, Mace, Ce, e a., 2018). A ee, e daabae de cde fa e ec ec a e age fac e ca dace e e g aeed cdc aac. Aed fa ad ag cded e daabae, e eeac cd eab aca ed ad ce e fdg a e ea ecfc face. Ge e e f e START-GTD daabae, cecg dda fa ab e ec ee a eac age d be a gfca deag. Sa, e daa cd be cded def e aegc bece f eac e g. Ug fa, e de eeac cd eab aca ed f aac dec baed e bece. 173 Cdg e fa e START-GTD daabae ffe e b f addg e aa. Eac e aabe eabed d ageg dec f e defed e g d ee efe ad fe af e e. Tee aabe d add e ae e babc aa bee af e ea. 5.5 Implicaion fo Pacice Te aca fdg eeac ad e e f e babc de ffe ea f aa fc ae ecfc e g eced f ag eecc face aac. Te ea ce deeed g e de de a c agage f deadg c g eae e face ad b c age ae beg cdeed. Gee ad d egece aa ca ae fa ad a ea ea. Te ea ce ca be aed a ceee de a cde eabe f ecfc face ege f e face ad eae f e ceece f ccef aac. Hg cg g ca be aeed f e caabe eab a deg ba ea cde a age f cea. 5.6 Implicaion fo Theo and Fe Reeach Ug e eeac ed eabed , e daae ca be cded eae a age f dec fece f e g. T ca eae be cea beee gaaa ad eea fac ad a age ad acca dec b e g. Tee ed ca be eeded cde a aca cec beee dec fac ad e g f aac. Te aca aa geeaabe eea e da. Te eeac ed ffe e b f fe de fc e e f ee aabe. 174 5.7 Conclion Te e f d a eae e ed a b-ae ac aac eecc face. T afed e f e c ae a e f a aac f e e gd a e. Te eeac fced ea a e f dec fece beeed ae age eec acc bece. Tee dec fece ee defed ad adaed g a ee f e eae. 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Abstract (if available)

Abstract There appears to be no shortage of government and academic reports asserting the imminent threat of terrorist attacks of America’s electric power grid. This assumption has become a recurrent theme, shaping many of the electric utility industry’s current regulations. Such attacks could pose a severe risk to millions of Americans’ health and well-being and exact an economic toll in the billions of dollars. However, these fears are primarily based on anecdotal data with little supporting empirical evidence. ❧ This research examines the likelihood that sub-state actors will select electric infrastructure as a legitimate target for attack. This study is presented in three primary stages: (1) The research establishes a set of organizational and environmental decision factors that are believed to influence target selection

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Asset Metadata

Creator Madia, James D. (author)

Core Title Threat assessment of physical attacks of electrical infrastructure: how do terrorist groups select their targets?

School School of Policy, Planning and Development

Degree Doctor of Policy, Planning & Development

Degree Program Policy, Planning, and Development

Publication Date 10/26/2020

Defense Date 10/08/2020

Publisher University of Southern California (original), University of Southern California. Libraries (digital)

Tag consequence,electric infrastructure,OAI-PMH Harvest,power grid,risk,terrorism,terrorist attack,threat,vulnerability

Language English

Contributor Electronically uploaded by the author (provenance)

Advisor von Winterfeldt, Detlof (committee chair), Brannan, David W. (committee member), Lewis, Ted G. (committee member)

Creator Email jdm560@gmail.com,jmadia@usc.edu

Permanent Link (DOI) https://doi.org/10.25549/usctheses-c89-387167

Unique identifier UC11666182

Identifier etd-MadiaJames-9070.pdf (filename),usctheses-c89-387167 (legacy record id)

Legacy Identifier etd-MadiaJames-9070.pdf

Dmrecord 387167

Document Type Dissertation

Rights Madia, James D.

Type texts

Source University of Southern California (contributing entity), University of Southern California Dissertations and Theses (collection)

Access Conditions The author retains rights to his/her dissertation, thesis or other graduate work according to U.S. copyright law. Electronic access is being provided by the USC Libraries in agreement with the a...

Repository Name University of Southern California Digital Library

Repository Location USC Digital Library, University of Southern California, University Park Campus MC 2810, 3434 South Grand Avenue, 2nd Floor, Los Angeles, California 90089-2810, USA