Resilience by anticipating change: simple and robust decision making for coastal adaptation planners, communities and elected officials

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Content COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 1

Resilience by Anticipating Change; Simple and Robust Decision Making for Coastal Adaptation
Planners, Communities and Elected Officials
by
Claudia E. Avendano, Oc., M.S.,

DISSERTATION SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS
FOR THE DEGREE OF
DOCTOR IN POLICY PLANNING AND DEVELOPMENT
Sol Price School of Public Policy
University of Southern California

May 2019

COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 2

_______________________________________
Peter J. Robertson PhD.
Associate Professor
Sol Price School of Public Policy
Email: robertso@usc.edu
CHAIR

____________________________________________
Lisa Schweitzer
Professor
Sol Price School of Public Policy
Email: lschweit@usc.edu

_____________________________ _____________________________
Honorable Brian Brennan Don Schmitz, AICP MS
Former California Coastal Commissioner and President and Principal Planner
Executive Director of the Beach Erosion Authority Schmitz & Associates, Inc.,
for Clean Oceans and Nourishment

COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 3
Abstract:
Management of the coastal zone under climate change and deep uncertainty requires robust,
flexible and adaptive policy making based in the effectiveness of the adaptation measures against
always changing conditions. This dissertation presents an application of dynamic adaptation
pathways, triggered by tipping points, turning points, and other environmental and
socioeconomic indicators to increase the resiliency of the Carmen-Pajonal-Machona lacunae
system against Climate Change, erosion, salinization, pollution, and against impacts of future
development. This application may be expanded to the Gulf of Mexico including to the US and
other significant environments in the Meso-America corridor in more than seven countries.

Keywords: Climate change, sea level rise, robust decision support systems, transient
scenarios, adaptive planning, policy making, adaptation pathways, tipping points, turning points,
thresholds, triggers, adaptation measures, resiliency, dynamic adaptive policy pathways,
mitigating actions, hedging actions, sign posts, monitoring programs, DPSIR, pressures, drivers,
impacts, system state, system response, top-down, bottom up risk and vulnerability assessments,
hybrid models.

COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 4
Dedication:
It takes a village....
This dissertation is dedicated to all the people that in one way or the other way made this
dissertation possible. There are bumps in the road, and there are angels that lift you trough it.
To my Angels: Fernando, Carlos, Stevie, Steven T, Greg, Jason, Robin R, Peter R, Lisa S, Karin,
Homero, Arlene, Georgia, Yael, and Sandy

COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 5
Table of Contents

Abstract: .......................................................................................................................................... 3
Dedication: ...................................................................................................................................... 4
Table of Contents ............................................................................................................................ 5
Table of Figures .............................................................................................................................. 8
List of Tables ................................................................................................................................ 12
Acronyms and Abbreviations ....................................................................................................... 13
Chapter 1: Introduction ................................................................................................................. 16
Description and Relevance of the Area of Study ...................................................................... 21
Climate Change and Sea Level Rise Scenarios Used for the World's Bank Study .................. 29
Carmen-Pajonal-Machona2014 "Current Conditions" and "Current Vulnerability" as
Environmental Baseline of Analysis ......................................................................................... 30
Chapter 2: Historical Perspective on the Evolution of Coastal Planning Practice ....................... 35
From Resources Specific Management to Integrated Coastal Zone Management ................... 36
From Integrated Coastal Zone Management to Climate Change Resiliency ............................ 37
The ICPP, UNFCCC and the Integration of Adaptation Knowledge ....................................... 42
Reflective Planning Theory as Representation of Current Paradigms of Meta-Analysis ......... 46
Coastal Zone Management Under Climate Change and Deep Uncertainty ............................. 53
Moving from Traditional Planning Scenarios to Dynamic and Adaptive Plans ....................... 56
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 6
Chapter 3: The World Bank's Study in Context ........................................................................... 65
Environmental Baseline and Current System's Vulnerability Findings .................................... 67
Selection of Adaptation Measures in Response to Current System's Vulnerability ................. 74
Using the Top-Down Risk Assessment Methodological Framework (ICPP) .......................... 75
Creating a Model of Drivers, Pressures, State, Impacts, And Response (DPSIR) Diagrams ... 77
Analyzing Future Vulnerability through Hotspots ................................................................... 80
Design and Selection of Adaptation Measures Based on the Results of the System's
Vulnerability Hotspots Analysis. .............................................................................................. 84
Chapter 4: Expanding the Results of the Carmen-Pajonal-Machona Vulnerability Analysis ...... 99
Limitations of the World Bank's Study ................................................................................... 100
The Need for Hybrid Models: Bottom-up and Top-Down Approaches ................................. 102
Bottom-up Approach, Decision-Makers’ Policy Questions: Exploring Future Scenarios from
the Anthropogenic Point of View ........................................................................................... 111
Creating a Hybrid Vulnerability Assessment for the Carmen-Pajonal-Machona Lacunae
System ..................................................................................................................................... 114
Building a Supplementary Set of Adaptation Measures ......................................................... 134
Adaptation measures to increase resiliency of the sandbar. ............................................... 136
Adaptation measures to accelerate the landward migration of mangroves. ........................ 154
Adaptation plan micro-credits: ........................................................................................... 165
Adaptation Plan Community-Based Solid Waste Management. ........................................ 177
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 7
Adaptation plan mangrove management ............................................................................ 190
Adaptation plan management of aquaculture practices. ..................................................... 209
Adaptation plan agroforestry .............................................................................................. 217
Chapter 5: Adaptation Pathways and Adaptive Plan .................................................................. 233
Problem statement ............................................................................................................... 236
System states: ...................................................................................................................... 240
Thresholds ........................................................................................................................... 242
Triggers ............................................................................................................................... 253
Safety buffers ...................................................................................................................... 256
Monitoring .......................................................................................................................... 259
Thresholds, Triggers and Indicators Characterizing the CPM System ............................... 264
Chapter 6: Conclusion................................................................................................................. 285
Statement of the Problem ........................................................................................................ 286
Approach ................................................................................................................................. 288
To summarize, the main objectives of this dissertation were to: ............................................ 289
The methods used in this dissertation included: ..................................................................... 289
The results of this dissertation may be summarized as: .......................................................... 290
References: .................................................................................................................................. 302

COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 8
Table of Figures
Figure 1. Delimitation of the Mesoamerican–Méxican bio-corridor ; Source: Arellano-Mendez, Avendano &Fanelli,
2016. ............................................................................................................................................................................ 24
Figure 2. Carmen-Pajonal-Machona lagoon system.(Source: Google Earth, 2014). .................................................... 26
Figure 3. Areas identified as potential future wetlands within the Tonalá Watershed Basin. (Source: INEGI 2010 ;
http://www.inegi.org.mx, downloaded April 2015, Avendano et al., 2016.) .............................................................. 27
Figure 4. Natural areas preserved, lost, and acquired from 1984–2012.(Source: INEGI 2010.) .................................. 28
Figure 5.Steps of the methodological approach followed for the design adaption measures during the World Bank's
study. ........................................................................................................................................................................... 67
Figure 6. Summary of the DPSIR analysis using climate change as main driver .......................................................... 79
Figure 7. Flow chart of process for design of adaptation measures to move the system from projected vulnerability
conditions to more desired future conditions. (Source: Haasnoot, 2013) .................................................................... 86
Figure 8.Adaptation measures preferred by the local community and adaptation measures selected by vulnerability
hotspots. (Source: Avendano et al., 2016) ................................................................................................................... 90
Figure 9. Adaptation measures selected for immediate implementation. .................................................................. 98
Figure 10. Pictured are examples of top-down and bottom- up approaches. (Source: https://climate-
exchange.org/2014/02/24/390) ................................................................................................................................ 104
Figure 11. The figure shows the conceptual framework for a scenario-neutral approach (adapted from Wilby et al.
2010). ......................................................................................................................................................................... 110
Figure 12. A continuum of adaptation measures from soft and low impact (green) to hard structures, increasing and
combining as conditions progress. Source:
https://www.nps.gov/subjects/climatechange/upload/CASH_FINAL_Document_111016.pdf ................................ 113
Figure 13. DPSIR diagram for the lagoon mouth opening and closing (system stage) as a driver of impacts and
change. (Adapted from Avendano et al., 2016) ......................................................................................................... 125
Figure 14. DPSIR showing the impacts of contaminated water in the CPM system using water pollutants as a driver
of change. (Adapted from Avendano et al., 2016) ..................................................................................................... 126
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 9
Figure 15. DPSIR showing the impacts on the system using coastal process under future conditions as a driver of
change. (Adapted from Avendano et al., 2016) ......................................................................................................... 127
Figure 16. DPSIR showing the impacts on the system using storms and extreme events under future conditions as a
driver of change. (Adapted from Avendano et al., 2016) .......................................................................................... 128
Figure 17. DPSIR showing the impacts on the mangroves using effects of extreme events under future conditions as
a driver of change. (Adapted from Avendano et al., 2016) ...................................................................................... 129
Figure 18. Combination of key components in climate change vulnerability assessment. Source: Nguyen et al.
(2016). ....................................................................................................................................................................... 133
Figure 19. Progression of possible adaptation measures to maintain the stability of the sandbar and to avoid SLR
impacts throughout time. .......................................................................................................................................... 138
Figure 20. Comparison of average raw performance of different coastal adaptation options for different time
horizons; results are based on the weighted average of performance scores for all case study regions; positive
values represent a favorable assessment of performance; negative values indicate an unfavorable assessment of
performance. Source: Preston et al. (2013). .............................................................................................................. 140
Figure 21.Adaptation Pathways map showing possible combinations of adaptation measures combined in different
bundles for its implementation. Source HCCREMS (2012) ......................................................................................... 144
Figure 22.Adaptation options (Sand-bar management strategies ) for short, medium and long-term implementation
. .................................................................................................................................................................................. 145
Figure 23.Pathways Map for the Sandbar Management. ......................................................................................... 153
Figure 24.Mangrove inland migration in response to SLR. Source: Gilman et al. (2008). ......................................... 155
Figure 25.Current location of mangrove forest surrounding the Carmen-Pajonal-Machona lacunae system; In gray,
current water level; in green, current mangrove location; and in blue, future sea level assuming a total elevation
change of 1.2 m according to the high-emission scenario for the year 2100. ........................................................... 157
Figure 26. Proposed land use for CPM. Blue dashed area: biological corridors. Source: Avendano et al.,(2016). .... 163
Figure 27. Proposed adaptation measures after the living shoreline concept. .......................................................... 164
Figure 28 Example of Management thresholds activated by changes on the system. Source:
http://oceantippingpoints.org/portal/guide/strategy-3-set-targets-and-design-monitoring .................................. 235
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 10
Figure 29. Effective timing of adaptation implementation in relation to thresholds and triggers. Source: HCCREMS
(2012). ....................................................................................................................................................................... 254
Figure 30. Establishing a safety buffer using uncertainty estimates. ........................................................................ 257
Figure 31. Long-term and short-term events and trends in climate change; Adapted from Sanchez-Arcilla (2016) . 261
Figure 32. Dynamic decision making, a policy analysis approach for decision making under uncertainty (Deltares
2018). ......................................................................................................................................................................... 264
Figure 33. Adaptation measure microcredits affected by the establishment of credit at community level (yellow)
and by the changes in the oil industry (brown). ........................................................................................................ 268
Figure 34. Adaptation measure microcredits affected by establishment of credit at community level (yellow) and by
closing of the sandbar (blue), breaking of the sandbar (green), and changes in payment for environmental services
(pink). ......................................................................................................................................................................... 268
Figure 35. Adaptation measure agroforestry affected by the beginning of the program payment for environmental
services (pink) and the establishment of microcredits at community level (yellow). ................................................ 269
Figure 36. Adaptation measure aquaculture affected by the establishment of credit at community level (yellow) and
by closing of the sandbar (blue), breaking of the sandbar (green), and changes in payment for environmental
services (pink). ........................................................................................................................................................... 269
Figure 37. Management of solid residues affected by the establishment of credits at community level (yellow) and
the closing of the sandbar (blue) ............................................................................................................................... 270
Figure 38. Direct interdependence between Triggers, Thresholds, Tipping Points in the sandbar and implementation
of adaptation measures. ............................................................................................................................................ 271
Figure 39. Adaptation Measure Sandbar Management showing the beginning time of implementation for each
action, in response to the tipping points, turning points, thresholds and triggers identified for the CPM lagoon
system. ....................................................................................................................................................................... 274
Figure 40. Adaptation Measure Microcredits showing the beginning time of implementation for each action, in
response to the tipping points, turning points, thresholds and triggers identified for the CPM lagoon system ....... 275
Figure 41. Adaptation Measure Aquaculture showing the beginning time of implementation for each action, in
response to the tipping points, turning points, thresholds and triggers identified for the CPM lagoon system. ...... 276
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 11
Figure 42. Adaptation Measure Agroforestry showing the beginning time of implementation for each action, in
response to the tipping points, turning points, thresholds and triggers identified for the CPM lagoon system. ...... 277
Figure 43. Adaptation Measure Solid Residues Management Plan showing the beginning time of implementation
for each action, in response to the tipping points, turning points, thresholds and triggers identified for the CPM
lagoon system. ........................................................................................................................................................... 278
Figure 44. Total Map of Adaptation Measures showing the correct calculated timing for implementation. ........... 280
Figure 45. Economic Valuation of Environmental services of the Tabasco areas under impacts and influence of the
Oil industry exploitation. Source (Vazques et al, 2011). ............................................................................................ 282

COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 12
List of Tables

Table 1 Total Elevation Change by Climate Change Scenarios ................................................................................... 30
Table 2 Annual Averages and Climate Change Predicted Anomalies for Temperature and Precipitation .................. 68
Table 3 Total Elevation Change Under Different Climate Change Scenarios ............................................................... 69
Table 4 Analysis of Vulnerabilities for the Carmen-Pajonal-Machona Lagoon System ............................................... 72
Table 5 Conceptual Framework Used for Selection of Main Adaptation Measures ................................................... 74
Table 6 Operational Definitions Recommended by the IPCC 2007 .............................................................................. 76
Table 7 Vulnerability Hotspots Identified for the CPM Lacunae System ..................................................................... 81
Table 8 Different Adaptation Approaches (adapted from Lara and Vides-Almonacid, 2014) ..................................... 91
Table 9 Criteria to be Used in Ranking, Evaluating, and Selecting First- Tier Adaptation Measures .......................... 96
Table 10 Criteria to be Used for the Selection and Evaluation of the Adaptation Measures ...................................... 97
Table 11 Main Vulnerability Variables, Forces, and Drivers for CPM Under Current Conditions ............................... 115
Table 12 Vulnerability Hotspots for the CPM Lacunae System Unaddressed After Implementation of the First-Tier
Adaptation Measures ................................................................................................................................................ 118
Table 13 Results of the DPSIR Analysis for the CPM System ..................................................................................... 130
Table 14 Adaptation Measures to Increase the Sandbar Stability ............................................................................. 136
Table 15 Coastal Adaptation Measures and Strategies by Shoreline Management Policy. Source adapted from
HCCREMS (2012) ........................................................................................................................................................ 147
Table 16 Adaptation Measures to Increase Mangrove Resilience to Climate Change. Adapted from E. L. Gilman et
al. (2008). ................................................................................................................................................................... 158
Table 17 Summary of DPSIR and Vulnerability Analysis for the Stability of the Sandbar ........................................ 239
Table 18 Summary of Adaptation Measures with Their Cost, Benefits and Impacts. Source: (Beaver 2016) ........... 259
Table 19 Examples of Monitoring Interval Triggers. Adapted from HCCREMS (2012) ............................................. 262
Table 20 Thresholds, Triggers and Indicators Characterizing the CPM System ........................................................ 265
Table 21 Tipping Points and Turning Points Identified for the CPM Lacunae System ................................................ 267
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 13

Acronyms and Abbreviations
ABE- Adaptation Based in Ecosystems
ATP- Adaptation Tipping Points
BaU or BAU- Business as Usual
CARE International
CBA- Community-based Adaptation
CICC- Committee for Inter-institutional Climate Change Program of the State of Tabasco
CLIMATE-ADAPT- European Climate Adaptation Platform
CMIP5- 5
th
Inter-Comparison of Coupled Models Project
CO2 - Carbon Dioxide
CONABIO Comisión Nacional para el Conocimiento y Uso de la Biodiversidad.
CGCRB Coordinación General de Corredores y Recursos Biológicos
COP20 UNFCCC Conference of the Parties (COP)number 20
CPM- Carmen-Pajonal-Machona
CW21 water management for the 21st century (Water beleidvoor de 21e eeuw), The Netherlands
DPSIR- Diagram of Pressure System state, Impact and Response
EBA- Ecosystem-based Adaptation
EC- European Commission
EEA- European Environment Agency
ET- Economic Threshold
FAO- The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
FLEG- The European Union Forest Law Enforcement
FSC- Voluntary Forest Certification
GHG- Greenhouse House Gas
IBRD- International Bank for Reconstruction and Development
ICM- Integrated Coastal Management
IMAU- Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht
INECC- National Institute of Ecology and Climate Change (Mexico)
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 14
INEGI- Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía
IPCC- Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
IPCC-AR5
IS92- IPCC Emissions Scenarios released in 1992
IUCN- International Union for Conservation of Nature
KNMI- The National Data and Knowledge Institute for Climate Science (Netherlands)
LGCC- General Law of Climate Change (Mexico)
LGEEPA- General Law of Equilibrium Ecological and Environmental Protection (Mexico)
NOAA- National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration (United States)
PAWN- Policy Analysis for the Water Management of the Netherlands
PEACC- The Action Plans for Climate Change
PEMEX- Petróleos Mexicanos
POET- Tabasco Ecological Management Plan
PSIR- Pressure, state, impact, and response
PWM- National Policy Memorandum on Water Management (Netherlands)
RAND Corporation - Nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decision making through
research and analysis.
RCP4.5- CMIP5, low emission projection
RCP8.5- CMIP5, high emission projection
REDD- UN Reducing Emissions by Deforestation and Forest Degradation, United Nations
SINACC - Sistema Nacional de Cambio Climático
SLR- Sea Level Rise
TFI- Task Force on National Greenhouse Gas Inventories
TGICA- Task Group on Data and Scenario Support for Impact and Climate Analysis
UKCIP - UK Climate Impacts Program
UNDP - United Nations Development Program
UNEP- United Nations Environment Program
UNFCCC- Convention on the United Nations Conference on Climate Change
USAID- United States Agency for International Development
WGI- Working Group I of the IPCC
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 15
WMO- World Meteorological Organization
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 16

Resilience by Anticipating Change; Simple and Robust Decision for Coastal Adaptation
Planners, Communities and Elected Officials
Chapter 1: Introduction
Coastal environments are among the most dynamic environments on earth.
Adding climate change to the natural variability of the coastal environments creates
complex systems where many concurrent and iterative forces exercise different
pressures and continuously create new, unpredictable conditions as a result. Policy for
effective adaptation practices under such deep uncertainty is paramount. Land use and
costal adaptation planning should bring robust solutions that are sustainable even if
conditions change in ways different from those predicted by the climate models.
Climate change and sea level rise (SLR) are powerful drivers affecting the coastal
system at local, regional and global levels. They also affect a wide range of changes
over particular conditions, such as geo-morphological process, bathymetric and
topographic terrain conditions that affect local development patterns, and population
growth, and they create large chains of impacts and environmental responses over time
that are impossible to predict with exactitude. Each new condition, each new change in
policy, will, in fact, interact with other pressures in the environment leading to
thousands of possible outcomes to which we must adapt. Coastal professionals have
tried different planning approaches to measure, predict, plan, prepare, and efficiently
allocate resources to respond with exactitude to coastal changes. However, the level of
detail necessary for the predictive models typically used to achieve the customary level
of accuracy is time and resource intensive, limiting the capacity of planners to respond
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 17
to fast or unexpected changes apart from the specifically planned scenarios.
Furthermore, most of the traditional planning techniques target static goals, use long
range planning scenarios and study punctual climate change scenarios that may never
occur, since the majority of the planning documents do not usually have the ability to
incorporate the results of their own policy implementation. Planning for long term
projects in such a dynamic environment requires large amounts of public funding and
represents high risk for the decision makers.
The demands of the current coastal planning practice cause us to depart from
those long-term, heavy investment-based planning strategies to a new adaptation
planning paradigm, creating not a plan set in stone but a strategic vision of the future
that allows commitment to short-term, mid-term, and long-term goals even under
conditions of deep uncertainty. The modern coastal adaptation planner needs to be
able to establish a big picture of possible futures and a robust framework to guide
incremental future actions.
The newest approach and probably the best fitted to deal with the quickly
changing and unpredictable conditions present in coastal areas under climate change is
called adaptive planning. This work presents an application of an adaptive planning
technique called adaptive pathways to address several policy issues raised during the
implementation of adaptation measures suggested for a lacunae system located in the
Gulf of Mexico (Tabasco). Using as a case study the Carmen-Pajonal-Machona
lacunae system with its adjacent wetlands, mangroves, and bio-corridors highlighted at
the global level as areas of international ecological significance, and replicable
throughout several localities in the Gulf of Mexico, this work presents an innovative
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 18
adaptive planning approach that will address some of the most burdensome issues
faced by coastal planners and elected officials.
The central questions motivating this research are: Once adaptation measures
have been selected, how can we explore the different combinations of actions for their
implementation over time? What will be the best analytical approach that allows us to
explore and sequence the possible action options that create the best results? How does
decision making change when alternative external developments occur? How do we
better support the local decision makers in the implementation of the proposed
adaptation measures for the region? How do we create a dynamic plan that uses simple
and robust language to explain the best alternative pathways for implementation?
This chapter provides the context under which this dissertation developed. It is important
to acknowledge that this dissertation builds upon research done by the author during the
vulnerability assessment prepared for the Federal Mexican Government and the World Bank
through the National Institute for Ecology and Climate Change, or INECC (its initials in
Spanish) in 2014 -2016. As part of an international adaptation planning consortium the author
developed methodology to select the first-tier of adaptation measures for the project "Design of
Adaptation Measures to Increase Resiliency and Reduce the Vulnerability of the Carmen-
Pajonal-Machona Lacunae System to the Future Impacts Generated by Climate Change and
Anthropogenic Activities on the area: Pilot Project, Tabasco, Mexico”. The study was part of the
“National Initiative for Adaptation of the Coastal Wetlands of the Gulf of Mexico" in preparation
for the IPCC’s fifth Climate Change assessment report.
The original study departed from the "present conditions" scenario, and used downscaled
global climate models to project future climate change scenarios and study their possible impacts
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 19
over the lacunae system. The projected impacts were used then to assess future vulnerabilities of
the lacunae system due to both the effects of future climate change and the effects of future
anthropogenic development. When the future vulnerability was assessed, an inventory of more
than one hundred possible adaptation measures in response to those possible impacts was
collected, ranked and evaluated using a screening algorithm. The author designed this screening
algorithm based on the preferences of the community, the scope of the study, the best available
adaptation methodology, and the efficiency of each measure in adding resiliency and reducing
vulnerability to the system. Using a typical "top down" assessment approach, ten adaptation
measures were selected and presented to the decision makers for final approval and the top five
measures were to be implemented as first tier adaptation measures.
The 2016 vulnerability assessment's information was further analyzed under a more
robust planning approach (adaptive planning) to deal with the deep uncertainty inherent to
Climate Change. A second-tier of adaptation measures was proposed, to supplement the residual
vulnerability of the Carmen-Pajonal-Machona lacunae system after the implementation of the
first-tier adaptation measures. This dissertation proposes an implementation strategy that
combines the first and second-tier adaptation measures using a sophisticated planning technique
called "adaptive pathways." The adaptive pathways technique allows the user to find the most
efficient way of implementing both tiers of adaptation, by combining and sequencing adaptation
measures according to its useful life. Once an adaptation measure becomes inefficient, a new
step will be implemented and a new pathway of action will be generated.
To provide consistency and transparency to the analysis, this dissertation used the same
socio-economic, political, ecological, and demographic conditions of the original Carmen-
Pajonal-Machona study 2014-2016, and continues the analysis based in the same categories of
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 20
main issues, environmental problems and system vulnerabilities as depicted by the World Bank's
vulnerability study. The methodology used for the selection of the first tier adaptation measures
and the results of that study are carefully described in Chapter 3 of this dissertation to provide
transparency and consistency between the analysis of the World Bank's study and the further
results of this dissertation.
The theoretical background justifying further research using a more robust planning
approach is explained in Chapter 2 describing the evolution of approaches to coastal
management, climate change and coastal adaptation setting the basis for the research questions
posed by this dissertation.
Chapter 4 commences the new analysis by acknowledging the high level of vulnerability
yet unaddressed after the implementation of the first tier (top five) adaptation measures as
proposed by the original study, and it justifies the need for supplementary analysis using an
alternative approach called "bottom-up" vulnerability assessment. Combining the results of both
the "top down" and the "bottom up" vulnerability assessments, this analysis leads to a new array
of adaptation measures supplementing the original study. The hybrid vulnerability analysis also
finds that the opening and closing of the lagoon mouth is the principal driver of future impacts in
the lacunae system, and a series of adaptation measures was proposed to delay the breaking of
the lagoon's sandbar until the maximum amount of time is afforded for the wetlands to migrate
inland and/or to higher grounds, maximizing the natural resilience of the system and reducing its
vulnerability.
Chapter 5 proposes adaptation pathways for the implementation of the full set of
adaptation measures (first and second tier) as resources and information become available in the
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 21
future, providing decision makers and adaptation planners with a flexible, robust and dynamic
tool to better respond to future climate change scenarios.
Chapter 6 discuses the relevance of these findings from the methodological point of view
and proposes future research. Chapter 6 also discusses how these findings, applied at an
international level, could benefit coastal adaptation practices in California.
Description and Relevance of the Area of Study
Mexico has been a committed member of the Convention on the United Nations
Conference on Climate Change (UNFCCC) since 1995 to reach global mitigation and adaptation
goals to lower carbon emission and mitigate global warming and climate change. Twenty years
later, after participating in the COP20 Lima’s call for Climate Action 2014, Mexico continues to
expand its environmental leadership with the application of state-of-the-art adaptation planning,
crafting adaptation strategies to protect, restore, and preserve the environment, the population,
and the local economies established in key adaptation areas of the Gulf of Mexico.
The National Institute of Ecology and Climate Change (INECC) is Mexico’s national
climate change agency leading the efforts for implementation of the international climate
commitments agreed upon by Mexico as a nation. In 2014 INECC received a grant from the
World Bank and the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD) to further
its national adaptation goals. The scope of the “Adaptation of Coastal Wetlands of the Gulf of
Mexico to the Anthropogenic Impacts and the Impacts of Climate Change under Several Climate
Scenarios” project was therefore to further the future of adaptation practices in Mexico by
researching best adaptation practices worldwide and creating specific adaptation plans for six
sites of ecological significance. These sites, representing different environments, will serve as
showcases for successful adaptation measures that could be then be implemented in similar
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 22
environments nation-wide. The Carmen-Pajonal-Machona Lacunae System was selected as one
of the pilot project sites due to its global environmental significance (Avendano et al., 2016).
Mexico is comprised of 31 states and a Federal District. The state of Tabasco is the most
populated state in southeast Mexico with 2,238,603 inhabitants (INEGI, 2010), a territorial
extension of about25,000 km², and 191 km of coast adjacent to the Gulf of Mexico. Tabasco is a
state of contrast, with one of the more abundant oil production industries and important ports.
Yet most of its population lives in extreme poverty. The state also has an extensive history of
natural tragedies, caused by strong and frequent nortes (storms) causing significant coastal
erosion and destructive floods that cover up to 60% of the state territory at once. These cause
immense socioeconomic injury as well as damage to the extensive wetlands, mangroves, and
ecological sanctuaries of the area, some of which are in the process of being either registered as
natural protected areas or of being incorporated into international bio-corridors such as the
Mesoamerican bio-corridor due to their extreme ecological significance. (Domínguez-
Domínguez Zavala-Cruz, & Martínez-Zurimendi, 2011)
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 23

Figure 1 shows the delimitation of the Mesoamerican bio-corridor.
As the effects of climate change become more evident in the region, they will not only
lead to major tragedies for the local population, the national commerce (important ports),and the
oil industry (major oil rigs and platforms in the area), but will also largely affect the goals of
carbon emission reduction and climate change adaptation nation-wide, if not world-wide.
The implementation of a state program of action on climate change for the area is
indispensable and has been recognized as an element of strategic security in the state, national,
and global context. The creation of area specific land-use and adaptation plans, like any other
planning instrument to be developed for the area, needs to be aligned with the adaptation to
climate change policies established at the federal level by the General Law of Climate Change
(LGCC) in 2012. At the state level, the coordination needs to be aligned with the Tabasco
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 24
Ecological Management Plan (POET), which is the ruling planning instrument derived from the
General Law of Equilibrium Ecological and Environmental Protection (LGEEPA) as an
operative environmental law at state level.

Figure 1. Delimitation of the Mesoamerican–Méxican bio-corridor ; Source: Arellano-Mendez,
Avendano &Fanelli, 2016.
The Action Plans for Climate Change (PEACC) need to define mitigation measures
(greenhouse gas emissions reduction, GHG) and adaptation measures to ensure the integrity of
local communities. This will help them to develop resilience and self-sufficiency and to
strengthen local capacity by helping the local population to address the adverse impacts of future
climate change at the community level. It will also meet the ecological objectives originally
planned by the Committee for Inter-institutional Climate Change Program of the State of
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 25
Tabasco (CICC). The local adaptation plans for the area need to be created so that the results of
the polices implemented in the State of Tabasco could be comparable with results at national and
international levels to act in accordance with the requirements of the International Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC).
Previous studies in the area, summarized in the PEACC, point to the land use change
from rural to urban as the main driver of emissions in the state. The state has a particular
vulnerability to (i) flood risk, (ii) extreme weather events, and (iii) sea level rise in coastal areas.
The current state action plan, however, vaguely proposes any mitigation and adaptation measures
in response to the problems encountered at the state level(PEACC, 2011).In spite of the lack of
detail, PEACC (2011) and POET(2013) provide the policy framework for the current land-use
and adaptation projects at the Carmen-Pajonal-Machona lagoon system described below (see
Figure 2).
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 26

Figure 2. Carmen-Pajonal-Machona lagoon system.(Source: Google Earth, 2014).
The Carmen-Pajonal-Machona lagoon System is surrounded by four areas signaled as
potential future wetland areas within the Tonalá Basin. The Laguna de Termimos is the largest of
these areas and occupies 450,000 hectares running from the central part of the basin toward the
coast, engulfing the CPM lacunae system (see Figure 3).
Laguna del
Carmen
Laguna de la
Machona
Boca de
Santa Ana
Boca de
Panteones
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 27

Figure 3. Areas identified as potential future wetlands within the Tonalá Watershed Basin.
(Source: INEGI 2010 ; http://www.inegi.org.mx, downloaded April 2015, Avendano et al.,
2016.)
The totality of the Tonalá basin has been subject to massive deforestation in the last 30 years
mainly as a result of land use change for anthropogenic purposes (e.g., agriculture, grazing,
urbanization). Deforestation in this basin is especially critical because of its grand scale and such
damage in potential wetland areas disrupts what it could be important bio-corridors in the future.
Figure 4 shows the areas lost to deforestation from 1984–2012 in beige stripes representing a
total of 215,276 hectares or 48.5%. Only 51.5% of the total natural area in the basin has been
preserved. While 7% of the basin territory shows accretion of natural land, its low ecological
value is due to its fragmented distribution. The CPM provides an important element of
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 28
connectivity between the natural areas and potential wetlands of the basin and so needs to be
protected.

Figure 4. Natural areas preserved, lost, and acquired from 1984–2012.(Source: INEGI 2010.)
The local population either works in the oil or ports industry or depends mostly on the
natural resources of the area for subsistence. The level of infrastructure is rudimentary, and the
main activities of the coastal population are seasonal, such as farming, fishing, or working at the
ports. Seasonal activities cause patterns of temporary immigration that the permanent residents
resent, and the local infrastructure cannot sufficiently support generating additional
anthropogenic stressors such as high levels of crime, violence, poverty, gender inequality, and
deficient levels of public health as a result of an inconsistent economy and drinking water crisis,
extreme food supply problems, increase in tropical diseases, and expansion of vectors due to
climate change.
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 29
Climate Change and Sea Level Rise Scenarios Used for the World's Bank Study
Four different climate change scenarios were used to project the effects of climate change
over the area of studies. These were the scenarios suggested as part of the 5th Inter-Comparison
of Coupled Models Project (CMIP5) to support IPCC efforts. (Meehl and Bony, 2012)
The climate change scenarios are:
(i) RCP4.5 for the year 2030
(ii) RCP8.5 for the year 2030
(iii) RCP4.5 for the year 2100
(iv) RCP8.5 for the year 2100
where RCP4.5 is a low-emission scenarios and RCP8.5 a high-emission scenario.
The CMIP5 scenarios where scaled down and customized to reflect relevant local conditions.
SLR was assessed by analyzing the eustatic component of sea level change (i.e., the component
associated with changes in ocean water density and temperature) and the component due to the
dynamic changes of the system (for example, winds, ocean currents).Given the significance of
the historical levels of subsidence in the area, local subsidence scenarios were developed for
2030 and 2100. These projections of subsidence were added to the projections of SLR, and the
climate change vulnerability scenarios were developed considering the total projected change in
the level of elevation (SLR plus subsidence), as shown in It is important to notice that the
analysis of subsidence assumes that oil exploitation activities in the area will stop in 75 years as
per current environmental agreements.
Table 1. It is important to notice that the analysis of subsidence assumes that oil exploitation
activities in the area will stop in 75 years as per current environmental agreements.
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 30
Table 1
Total Elevation Change by Climate Change Scenarios
Scenario Sea Level Rise (cm) Subsidence (cm)
Total Change
in Elevation
(cm)
RCP4.5 2030 12.2 19.0 31.2
RCP8.5 2030 12.9 19.0 31.9
RCP4.5 2100 55.1 40.0 95.1
RCP8.5 2100 75.8 40.0 115.8
(Avendano et al., 2016)
The estimated increase in sea level height due to the melting of the polar layers is still
subject to great uncertainty, so for the specific purpose of this project the most conventional sea
level due to the melting of continental ice sheets from WGI to IPCC-AR5 (Church et al., 2013) is
used. These projections must be added to the model SLA values and refined as best science
becomes available.
Carmen-Pajonal-Machona2014 "Current Conditions" and "Current Vulnerability" as
Environmental Baseline of Analysis

The analysis of current conditions of the Carmen-Pajonal-Machona lacunae system
recognizes that the system suffers from instability of the sandbar, resulting in coastline and sand-
dune erosion with the consequent deterioration of the roads, houses and other coastal
infrastructure. A risk of flooding and sandbar breakdown in extreme events exists, giving the
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 31
coastal communities in the area a high vulnerability of infrastructure (road, power distribution
network) that may result in humanitarian crises in a future with no food, work or health security.
The hydrodynamics of the lagoon system also result in high vulnerability to floods when
occurring in areas surrounding the lagoon system, altering the circulation patterns of the lagoon
with extreme flux in the levels of salinity, oxygen and organic pollution associated with extreme
meteorological events during the flood season. On the other hand, the lacunae system presents
very poor circulation due to the water's long periods of residence on the hinterland area of the
lagoon, as those areas are therefore prone to extremely low oxygen conditions during the long
periods of drought. Due to its low relief, the system suffers from a high probability of subsidence
and increased exposure to SLR (eustatism). A lack of wastewater treatment further increases the
risk of microbiological contamination (fecal coliforms) in some areas of the lagoon and
represents a potential serious risk to human health due to the consumption and
commercialization of raw oysters among other aquaculture activities present in the area;
however, at the time of the study we found high variability among data from different
information sources and the data did not allow for a definite characterization of the degree of
environmental pollution in the lagoon system.
The presence of three mangrove species was observed in the area: the black mangrove
(also called "Prieto"), the red mangrove, and the white mangrove. The buttonwood mangrove
was not found in the field work, although it was reported by historical documents as available in
the area. The absence of previously reported mangrove species, the absence of any marine grass,
plus the observations of aerial photographs (1999-2015) and the analysis of landscape metrics,
point to extreme loss of mangrove coverage and fragmentation of habitat due to changes of land
use increasing urban uses, areas for cultivation and animal husbandry, and illegal logging. In
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 32
general, mangrove populations were not balanced and a large majority of individuals were
young, with mostly thin trees in some areas.
Salinization of shallower aquifers and agricultural land was also observed as well as local
contamination of the soil due to accidental hydrocarbons spills and disruption of road network
systems and water and power grids caused by extreme weather events and deferred distribution
network maintenance.
High vulnerability of local communities to climate variability and in particular to extreme
events was diagnosed as the economy is mostly based on natural resources exploitation and other
aquaculture and agriculture activities that are weather dependent. Fishing and agriculture
activities have already been affected directly or indirectly by salinization of soil, rise of weather
temperatures, and the overexploitation of fisheries and mangroves. The local communities face
limited access to safe, good quality drinking water and general lack of basic infrastructure. There
is also insufficient organizational capacity of both the people within a community and among
different communities to respond to extreme events and climate change conditions. Poverty,
gender inequality, and lack of education, employment, and personal development opportunities
are common in most of the rural communities studied. However, some urban areas are benefiting
from the economic spillover from the oil industry, but this is not observable in the rural
communities adjacent to the oil exploitation sites. A full description of current conditions and
current vulnerability of the system is given in Chapter 3.
To achieve a systemic analysis of climate change and anthropogenic impacts, the impacts
were grouped into eight themes according to the severity of the impacts captured by the
vulnerability analysis. The eight prominent themes are:
• Stability of the lagoon’s protective sandbar and progression of coastal erosion
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 33
• Hydrodynamics of the lagoon system
• Water quality and lagoon’s trophic status
• Ecosystem health and species that give structure to plant communities
• Vectors, plagues, transmitters of diseases, pests, and invasive species
• Soil degradation
• Economic activities that depend on soil fertility and water quality
• Infrastructure
For each theme was created a schematic representation of the processes activated by
changes due to climate or anthropogenic activities. Only the changes that result in direct impacts
on the partnership between the Carmen-Pajonal-Machona lagoon and the socio-ecosystem of
local populations surrounding were captured as first-level. It should be clarified that in nature the
process of driver-pressure-state-impact-response is iterative. The responses of the system
become in turn driving forces, exerting new pressures on the already altered socio-ecosystem.
These iterations result in impacts of the second, third, or fourth level. For purposes of this model
only the first-level impacts will be used for the analysis. As the model evolves and information
becomes available, this model can be expanded to incorporate the second-, third- or fourth-level
impacts depending on the capacity of the computational equipment and the time and resources
available to the user.
The purpose of this schematization is to isolate, as far as possible, the complexity of the
interactions among the different variables in each pressure process that act on the socio-
ecosystem, taking into account the driving forces, both climatic and anthropogenic. To this end,
diagrams of drivers, pressures, states, impacts, and responses (DPSIR) have been developed for
each of the eight themes identified above. Each thematic DPSIR identifies the driving forces,
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 34
processes, and impacts generated from each process, creating a framework that allows its
congruent and cumulative analysis. This will help identify the main variables to be indicators,
tipping points, and triggers for the implementation of the adaptation measures and adaptation
plans (Avendano et al., 2016).
The DPSIR diagrams make up a conceptual model proposed and used by the European
Environment Agency (EEA) to develop its environmental reports. This conceptual model frames
the causal relationships between society, economy, and the environment. The socio-ecosystem is
decomposed according to a sequence of information that presents precise causal links. First, was
to identify natural and anthropogenic forces (drivers) capable of generating pressures on the
socio-ecosystem. Then the identified pressures, in turn, will determine the variation of the states
(level of change), and therefore the impacts. The model is usually completed with the
identification of the responses (i.e., strategies and measures) that could be adopted to prevent,
limit, or eliminate impacts on the environmental and social system (Kristens, 2004).
The DPSIR diagrams capture the main variables, drivers, forces, and pressures used for the
determination of system responses. The possible responses to the impacts identified by the
DPSIR diagrams are taken as the basis for generating inventory adaptation measures in response
to those impacts. An adaptation of the original DPSIR diagrams are presented in Chapter 4as
they are considered the departing point to explain the methodology and results followed to craft
adaptation measures and the subsequent generation of adaptation pathways to implement those
measures. However this study will suggest a new set of specific adaptation measures if
necessary, in response to the identified impacts incorporating not only the information contained
in the DPSIRs but also the preferences and priorities of local populations, the three levels of
governments, academia, local sponsors, and other decision makers (Avendano et al., 2016).
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 35
Chapter 2: Historical Perspective on the Evolution of Coastal Planning Practice
The coastal zone is an extremely dynamic environment, characterized by complex
interactions between the maritime, terrestrial, and atmospheric processes that converge at the
land–sea interface. The coastal zone is the band of dry land and adjacent ocean space (water and
submerged land) in which terrestrial processes and land uses directly affect oceanic processes
and uses, and vice versa (Ketchum, 1972).Although the coastal zone is relatively narrow if
defined strictly as the areas of direct land–sea interaction, its area of influence is wide spread,
considering the influence of the dynamic process taking place in this narrow area. The area of
influence of the interrelated ecological processes extends toward the ocean at least to the depth
of closure of the littoral cell and extends up and inland into the top of the catchments areas that
drain the coastal hinterland.
Coastal ecosystems, such as mangroves, dune systems, estuaries, coral reefs, and sea
grass beds, provide an array of goods and services that sustain coastal communities by storing
water, providing food, abating pollution, cycling nutrients, and providing a range of recreational
and cultural assets. These coastal environments not only provide environmental products to
sustain the typical coastal style of quality life, but also act as natural defenses against coastal
storms, mitigating floods and controlling erosion among other important functions (Costanza et
al., 1997).Socioeconomic linkages extend much further; it is estimated that the total economic
value of the global ecosystem services amounts to some USD 33 trillion per annum including the
market and nonmarket value. Around half of the human population lives within 100 km of the
sea. Twenty-one of the world’s 33 megacities are in the coastal zone, and 41–45% of global
economic activity takes place in the coastal zone (Hinrichsen, 1999; Martinez et al., 2007;
Patterson, 2008).
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 36
Today most of the world’s shorelines display long-term trends of erosion at an alarming
and increasing rate as a result of climate change, SLR, and the short-term impact of extreme
events like super-storms and hurricanes. It presents an almost unpredictable challenge to those
living at the coast (Glavovic, Kelly, Kay &Travers, 2014). Tension and conflict are inevitable in
this narrow and increasingly resource-constrained zone as the coastal population grows. Coastal
ecosystems are being displaced by urban development, agriculture, coastal infrastructure, and a
myriad of competing activities. Current practices in coastal planning are focused on increasing
awareness and recognition on a global scale that overpopulation, poverty, unsustainable resource
use, environmental degradation, and weak governance systems are undermining local livelihoods
and making coastal communities increasingly vulnerable and unsustainable.
The extent, intensity, and rate of development at the land–sea interface have resulted in
levels of coastal degradation that exceed that of any other terrestrial eco-system (Brown,
Corcoran, Hekerenrath, &Thonell, 2007; Nellemann & Corcoran, 2006).Over the last 2decades
coastal planners have been hard at work to implement a wide range of management approaches
and governance arrangements to reconcile the conflicting uses and divergent interests of the
coastal zone to achieve balanced and sustainable development (Cicin-Sain &Knecht, 1998).
From Resources Specific Management to Integrated Coastal Zone Management
Traditional coastal management efforts have been organized according to sectoral
interests and focused on addressing the planning jurisdiction’s local specific issues. But time tells
a different story, and it has been proven that these limited approaches are insufficient to manage
cumulative impacts and often cannot provide an appropriate level of response at impact level.
Clearly, to be effective, any management strategy must consider potential cross-scale
interactions, as well as a wide range of compounding and synergistic interactions within the
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 37
complex and interconnected social-ecological coastal systems. Consequently, the coastal zone
management practice suffered a paradigm shift observable in the early ‘90s. The focus of the
practice shifted from the sectoral and localized approach to a more holistic approach known as
integrated coastal zone management. Integrated approaches to coastal management are focused
on facilitating dialogue, cooperation, and coordination among sectoral interests to integrate local
and issue specific activities into a one directional effort by recognizing interdependencies and
reconciling contending interests under a single management framework combining all
biophysical and human dimensions of the coastal zone (Pernetta & Elder, 1993).
From Integrated Coastal Zone Management to Climate Change Resiliency
Climate change will then add a new layer of complexity to the integrated modalities of
coastal zone management and governance practice as an insidious threat that does not respect
sectoral or geographical boundaries and whose influence extends beyond the conventional
planning timescales of the integrated coastal zone management approach. Over the past 50 years,
the issue of climate change has evolved from a rather neglected branch of the science of
climatology to a leading item on the international political agenda. This presents a genuine
challenge to society’s decision-making systems; the climate problem is extremely complex and
characterized by uncertainty, ambiguity, and inevitable surprise. It has been described as a “super
wicked problem" by decision support-making authors such as Levin, Cashore, Bernstein, and
Auld (2012, p.5).
Today, climate change ranks high on the scale of societal priorities. In fact, some authors
stated that it may be the most serious foreseeable threat to human development, potentially
undermining development gains made to date (UN Development Program, 2008; World Bank,
2010). The gravity of the threat posed by climate change has been recognized by the UNFCCC
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 38
in a climate treaty that came into force in 1994 guiding the international response to the climate
problem.
There has been a gradual evolution in the focus of attention in addressing climate change
impacts. Initially, the emphasis was on mitigation, reducing the scale of the problem by limiting
greenhouse gas emissions and curbing the changing composition of the atmosphere. Then further
reflection made evident that even with a concerted international effort to limit emissions,
unacceptable impacts could still occur. This reflection created another change of paradigm and
incorporated a second alternative and complementary level of action to be added to the
mitigation efforts. It is, however, only in recent years, since the landmark Copenhagen Climate
Change Summit in 2009, that the imperative of adaptation has received focused political
attention. Notwithstanding the potential of integrated coastal management as a basis for coastal
adaptation, climate change introduces important dimensions that deserve more focused attention:
notably, greater recognition of and attention to uncertainty in coastal planning and decision-
making; a longer planning horizon; and the need to address adaptation and mitigation
opportunities in an integrated manner (Tobey et al., 2010; USAID, 2009)
The first paradigm behind integrated coastal zone management was to achieve
sustainability by the use of natural resources to guarantee their existence through at least one
future generation. For this it was necessary to establish a base inventory of natural resources and
understand how they grow, how they reproduce, and how they need to be supported to guarantee
subsistence or future stock. During the early stages of coastal zone management, the focus was
on understanding coastal processes, the importance of the coastal natural resources as good
providers, and the linkages among resources to create sustainable use. Up to this point, coastal
management was strongly supported by descriptive models that summarize measured
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 39
observations and contextualized them in an effort to understand and describe what has happened
in the past, learn from past behaviors and patterns, and use those patterns to extrapolate
conclusions about how those patterns might influence future outcomes. Common examples of
descriptive analytics are reports that provide historical insights regarding things such as total
stock of wetlands, fisheries inventory, year-over-year changes in fisheries’ population, and
monetary value as measured by sales. The challenge evolved into calculating monetary and
nonmonetary values of natural resources, making use of nonmonetary valuations techniques to
indirectly measure the value of natural resources, such as assigning a value-per-square-foot of
beach by the average dollars spent per beach visitor. Descriptive models and descriptive
analytics were useful to understand at an aggregate level what was going on in the coastal zone
under management by summarizing and describing the different processes occurring there while
using different indicators of environmental health to pursue sustainable management. However,
sustainable management implies guaranteeing that the managed resources will be available to at
least the next generation, so the paradigm evolved merely from the use of descriptive models to
predictive models that help predict the future.
Indeed, predictive analytics has its roots in prediction. These analytics are about
understanding the future. Predictive analytics provide coastal managers with actionable insights
based on data. Predictive analytics provide estimates about the likelihood of a future outcome.
No statistical algorithm can predict the future with 100% certainty, so the use of these models is
based in the probability of certain outcomes occurring. The foundation of predictive analytics is
based on probabilities. Coastal managers use statistics to forecast what might happen in the
future and plan contingencies based on the most probable outcomes. Coastal managers develop a
static optimal plan using a single most likely future (often based on the extrapolation of trends)
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 40
or a static, robust plan that will produce acceptable outcomes in most plausible future worlds
(Dessai & Hulme, 2007; Dessai, Hulme, Lempert, & Pielke, 2009). However, if the future turns
out to be different from the hypothesized future(s), the plan is likely to fail, especially when
factors of elevated uncertainly are added to the equation (McInerney, Lempert, &Keller, 2012).
Over the past two decades, adaptation thinking and practice have evolved considerably.
They have moved from a linear, science-driven process with hard models predicting future
climate change and attempting to assess with exactitude the direct resultant impacts and creating
management plans to deal with those impacts toward more flexible and adaptive solutions.
Traditional, linear models of decision-making, whereby the goal is clearly, rationally, and
unambiguously defined, assume that the effects of any action can be accessed from firm
predictive knowledge and the power to control implementation. Such models have, however,
proven ineffective in the face of the complexity and uncertainty that characterize many
sustainability problems (Voss, Newig, Kastens, Monstadt, & Nö lting , 2007). In their place, more
adaptive and collaborative approaches are being adopted. It has proven constructive to develop a
range of scenarios of climate change so that attention can be focused on understanding the
implications of different possible futures. In this way, decision-makers and stakeholders from the
community to the national government level can begin to think through their vulnerability and
identify a range of adaptation pathways or adaptation options that are available under different
circumstances (Glavovic et al., 2014)
This forces another change in the coastal management paradigm and moves the focus
from predictive analytics (static analysis based in the probability of one outcome to occur) to the
use of predictive analytics to advise on possible outcomes. The relatively new field of
prescriptive analytics allows users to prescribe a number of different possible actions to guide
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 41
them toward a solution. In a nutshell, these analytics are all about providing advice. Prescriptive
analytics attempt to quantify the effect of future decisions to advise on possible outcomes before
the decisions are actually made. At their best, prescriptive analytics not only predict what will
happen but also explain why it will happen and provide recommendations regarding what actions
will be more effective by taking advantage of the predictions and creating synergy, efficiency,
and a new level of confidence in robust models better equipped to deal with uncertainty (Halo,
2016).These analytics go beyond descriptive and predictive analytics by recommending one or
more possible courses of action under different hypothetical scenarios. Essentially, they predict
multiple futures and allow decision makers to assess a number of possible outcomes based on the
available data as well as their own actions. Prescriptive analytics use a combination of
techniques and tools such as data mining, business rules, algorithms, machine learning, and
computational modeling procedures. These techniques are applied to input from many different
data sets including historical and transactional data, real-time data feeds, and big data (Halo,
2016). The state of the art in coastal zone management then is twofold but is based on the
application of prescriptive analytics to (a) generate a dynamic scenario based planning that
provides a big picture about possible futures (at a qualitative descriptive level) but commits to
short-term actionable steps and (b) increment the level of detail for the immediate planning
scenarios and incorporate quantitative analysis as information becomes available thanks to
technology advancements that make possible the introduction of real-time information or big
data.
Spatial planning can enable integration of formal and informal institutions, facilitating the
visualization and analysis of large data sets on the fly in an integrative manner. Spatial planning
then becomes one of the most powerful planning tools and an important practical mechanism for
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 42
tailoring adaptation processes to particular places by incorporating local socio-economic and
geophysical data in base maps and overlapping multiple layers of information, which enables
horizontal and vertical coordination at multiple scales. Spatial planning enables consideration to
be given to the configuration of coastal settlements and the locality-specific impacts and risks of
intersecting climate and non-climate risks through, among other things, the use of innovative
visual- and scenario-generating tools, such as computer-mapping software, as highlighted in
settings as diverse as New York City, Southeast Queensland, Australia, Antigua in the
Caribbean, Durban, the Republic of South Africa, and Tabasco Mexico (Glavovic et al.,
2014).Spatial planning for climate change adaptation can enable information sharing, social
learning, envisaging of alternative futures, mediation of conflicting interests, and institutional
integration, to be sustained over time by investment of financial, human, and technical resources
on decadal timescales.
“Planning under uncertainty requires continuous, flexible and transparent processes that
cut across scales and engage governance actors and networks in a manner that is inclusive and
based on communication, social learning and monitoring of social-ecological systems”(Haasnoot
2013).Spatial planning techniques can display adaptation pathways under different time scales
and with different level of detail. The can quickly simulate different scenarios by providing real-
time maps to facilitate the visualization of sequenced actions that can be adjusted in light of
expert judgment and anticipated change, and those scenarios can be updated latter to more
detailed quantitative models as information becomes available.
The ICPP, UNFCCC and the Integration of Adaptation Knowledge
The state of the art in coastal zone management is using prescriptive analytics to provide
users with advice on what action to take following a logical and efficient pathway that
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 43
documents and monitors the progression of the path and then compares it with real-time
information to assess its effectiveness in an iterative manner that sets the basis for adaptive
planning. Constant evaluation of the levels of efficiency reached at every step of the adaptation
pathway then is both possible and required. Furthermore, the methodologies, adaptation
measures, and criteria used to define efficiency also need to be reevaluated periodically with the
best available scientific applications according to consensus by international bodies.
A key conclusion of the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's assessment
of adaptation in the coastal zone was that efforts to address climate-related risks are not effective
if they are reactive and standalone. Therefore, they need to be a mainstreamed into integrated
coastal management (IPCC, 2007). The knowledge base developed with the application of local-
level adaptation projects then needs to be integrated by meta-analyses that can translate regional
and global learning to further the range of adaptation and mitigation options available to respond
to climate change at the local, regional, and global level. The IPCC is an international body for
assessing and integrating science related to climate change. The IPCC was set up in 1988 by the
World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and UN Environment Program (UNEP) to create
consensus among the climate change scientific community and to provide policymakers with
regular assessments of the scientific basis of climate change, its impacts and future risks, as well
as options for adaptation and mitigation. The IPCC assessments are policy relevant but not
policy prescriptive; they may present projections of future climate change based on different
scenarios and the risks that climate change poses and discuss the implications of response
options, but they do not tell policymakers what actions to take. However, the IPCC assessments
provide scientific basis for governments at all levels to develop climate-related policies and meet
international climate change response commitments. IPCC assessments serve also as the
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 44
scientific guideline underlying negotiations at the UN climate conference, the UNFCCC (IPCC,
2017).
The UNFCCC entered into force on March 21, 1994. Today, it has near-unanimous
global membership. The 197 countries that have ratified the convention are called parties to the
convention. Preventing dangerous human interference with the climate system is the ultimate
aim of the UNFCCC. The ultimate objective of the convention is to stabilize greenhouse gas
concentrations "at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic (human induced)
interference with the climate system. The organization states that such a level should be achieved
within a time-frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure
that food production is not threatened, and to enable economic development to proceed in a
sustainable manner. Industrialized nations agree under the convention to support climate change
activities in developing countries by providing financial support for action on climate change
above and beyond any financial assistance they already provide to these countries. A system of
grants and loans has been set up through the convention and is managed by the Global
Environment Facility
Industrialized countries also agree to share technology with less-advanced nations. The
convention acknowledges the vulnerability of all countries to the effects of climate change and
calls for special efforts to ease the consequences, especially in developing countries that lack the
resources to do so on their own. In the early years of the convention, adaptation received less
attention than mitigation, as parties wanted more certainty on impacts of and vulnerability to
climate change. When IPCC's Third Assessment Report was released, adaptation gained traction,
and parties agreed on a process to address adverse effects and to establish funding arrangements
for adaptation. Currently, work on adaptation takes place under different convention bodies. The
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 45
Adaptation Committee, which parties agreed to set up under the Cancun Adaptation Framework
as part of the Cancun Agreements, is a major step toward a cohesive, convention-based approach
to adaptation (UNFCCC, 2017)
The IPCC assessments have become an instrument to gather information worldwide and
lead a new level of meta-analysis in adaptation experiences. As part of the IPCC, a Task Group
on Data and Scenario Support for Impact and Climate Analysis (TGICA) facilitates the
distribution and application of climate change-related data and scenarios. The ICPP assessments
are written by hundreds of leading scientists who volunteer their time and expertise as lead
authors and coordinating lead authors of the reports. They enlist hundreds of other experts as
contributing authors to provide complementary expertise in specific areas. Thousands of other
experts contribute as reviewers to ensure the reports reflect the full range of views in the
scientific community. The authors producing the reports are currently grouped into three
working groups:(a) physical science, (b)impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability and (c) mitigation
of climate change. They are joined by the Task Force on National Greenhouse Gas Inventories
(TFI) and the Task Group on Data and Scenario Support for Impact and Climate Analysis (IPCC
2017).
As a result of those efforts, the adaptation science is enriched by the integration and
meta-analysis of adaptation knowledge and the learning experiences in local communities that
can be used to create synergies in the application of adaptation on a global scale. New integrative
approaches are rising in parallel derived from the meta-analyses of global adaptation practices,
which has been made possible by the work of the IPCC in integrating scientific climate change
knowledge and the UNFCCC convention agreements that provide the basis and economic
support for the global implementation of adaptation practices. Meta-analyses at the technological
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 46
level have made possible the availability of big data at local, regional, and global level,
advancing adaptation planning practice through the use of meta-models.
Reflective Planning Theory as Representation of Current Paradigms of Meta-Analysis
The last five decades of Integrated Coastal Management show unsatisfactory progress in
implementation. Adaptation plans and actions have flourished in recent years, yet effective
implementation is just slowly emerging. Coastal communities face adversity and need to build
resiliency but not in the traditional way, with massive projects where just the planning and initial
financing would commit years of community resource, but by creating several layers of
resilience for the short-, medium-, and long-term. However, coastal communities are faced by a
governance gridlock slowing down or stopping even the smallest efforts. Coastal projects are
complex, and these problems are usually separated into smaller issues. Every issue then is
displaced from one social choice or discipline to another or from one jurisdictional agency to
another without securing outcomes. Piecemeal conflict resolution takes most of the community
and coastal planners’ efforts, and little energy is left to foster community resilience and
sustainability (Glavovic et al., 2014).Notwithstanding the potential of integrated coastal zone
management as the best tool to achieve coastal adaptation, climate change introduces new
dimensions and sets new thresholds for the discipline. Uncertainty in coastal planning and
decision-making claim unprecedented importance as the rate of coastal change departs from the
previously known patterns. Coastal managers need to work in terms of shorter and longer
planning horizons and address adaptation and mitigation opportunities in a timely and integrated
manner (Tobey et al., 2010; USAID, 2009).
The review of scholarship on adaptation, integrated coastal management, coastal risk
management, coastal governance, and risk governance reveals slow progress in the
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 47
implementation of adaptation practices in comparison with the fast-growing rate of climate
change (Glavovic et al., 2014). Authors such as Moser, Williams, and Boesch, 2012(in Glavovic
et al., 2014) have dedicated years of research to identify and try to overcome the practical
impediments to adaptation. The barriers impairing the widespread application of adaptation
projects need to be addressed to break the current gridlock of decision-making currently
prevailing in coastal management. Moser et al. identified financial barriers, which are inevitable.
According to the World Bank (2006), the overall cost of climate-proofing development could be
as high as USD 40 billion a year. There are also physical and ecological barriers to adaptation,
such as the natural capability of wetlands migration versus the accelerated rate of SLR. The rate
and scale of climate change may surpass critical thresholds beyond which ecological and human
systems may no longer be viable. There are also technological limits. Some proposed
technologies for adaptation may not be economically feasible or socially desirable, or they may
prove to be location specific, therefore inefficient and not widely transferable (Moser et al.,
2012, in Glavovic et al., 2014). There are also informational and cognitive barriers. Nicholls et
al. (2007) noted as adaptation barriers the lack of data to achieve a complete understanding of the
physical processes occurring in nature, the insufficient or inappropriate shoreline protection
techniques currently available, the divergent information management systems among
institutions, the fragmented and ineffective institutional arrangements that currently result in
weak governance, and societal resistance to change.
One of the main cognitive barriers is the under-perception of risk associated with climate
change, preventing a sense of urgency with unclear time horizons for timely implementation of
adaptation practices. The perception of tolerable risk and urgency varies among users and
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 48
decision makers. Conflicting attitudes regarding adaptation priorities almost always guarantee
gridlock during the decision-making process.
Finally, social, political, and cultural barriers also exist from the different ways in which
people and groups experience, interpret, and respond to climate change. Depending on the
communities’ actual capacity of response, their preference for certain adaptation activities will
vary; they will support certain adaptation measures regardless of their effectiveness. Kay (2012)
stated that political decision-making biases and local community biases must also be taken into
account during the adaptation planning process to prevent those biases from becoming barriers
during the implementation process.
Perhaps a key ingredient of breaking this impasse is to create opportunities for reflective
planning, focused in deliberation by all stakeholders and communities to attain consensus from
the early stages of the adaptation planning process. Successful global examples, such as the
Make Room for the River project in the Netherlands, show that such a process needs to be
founded on respect for and the fair reconciliation of the divergent points of view among coastal
communities because coastal communities are a select and complex combination of socio-
economic-ecological systems in which people make livelihood choices that shape the places they
live. Adaptation planning then should be based on stakeholders’ needs and local experience and
should be inclusive, authentic, and able to translate adaptation rhetoric into a practical reality to
the community to become consequential (Glavovic et al., 2014).
Reflective adaptation is central to translating these intentions into a practical reality. The
word reflective is used to capture the notion of critical self-reflection and self-correction in the
face of adversity, uncertainty, surprise, tension, and conflict. The process of reflective adaptation
centers on the capacity to consciously reflect on prevailing circumstances, contemplate future
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 49
prospects (including the prospect of shocks and surprise), and deliberate a selection of pathways
attuned to changing circumstances (including the potential for transformation where a change of
state is inevitable or necessary). Reflective adaptation begins by acknowledging that climate
change represents a fundamental challenge to societal systems, which may be translated into
significant opportunities for advancement. Glavovic et al. (2014) proposed reflective adaptation
as a conceptual framework after summarizing the findings of more than 20 different studies.
They concluded that coastal adaptation planning is comprised of three interlinked dimensions,
and each dimension needs to have certain attributes to successfully maintain, support, and
facilitate the process of reflective adaptation planning. The three dimensions are
• Process: the means by which adaptive measures are designed and delivered;
• Place: as adaptation is context specific; and
• People: whose potential must be released for adaptation to be successful.
Reflective adaptation processes need to be designed and implemented in a manner that is
responsive, deliberative, and transformative. Reflective planning processes respond to the needs
and circumstances of particular coastal communities and to the evolution of these needs and
circumstances over time. They draw out the views, preferences, knowledge, experiences,
feelings, and hopes of different coastal stakeholders and communities. Responsive planning
processes are also able to react effectively and constructively to changing circumstances in
social-ecological systems, learn from success and failures, and evolve state-of-the-art science
practices from those experiences. The process must, therefore, be based on intentional
monitoring, evaluation, and reevaluation as circumstances evolve, incorporating flexibility
through staged or nested implementation and redundancy (e.g., backup systems for critical
infrastructure) without sacrificing robustness.
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Processes must be deliberative and transformative. Deliberation is a non-coercive process
of information sharing, reflection, dialogue, and negotiation over societal values, preferences,
and opinions; it is foundational for coastal governance and adapting to climate change.
Transformative means supporting the potential for fundamental change, acknowledging that
climate change represents a substantive challenge to coastal social-ecological systems as well as
significant opportunities for development.
The place dimension should be studied with a focus on holism and integration. Holism
recognizes that the whole is greater than the sum of the parts. Coastal social-ecological systems
cannot be fully understood solely on the basis of analysis of their constituent parts. Although
reductionism is a valuable research tool for understanding component parts, a system-wide
perspective is necessary to understand the coastal zone. Moreover, given the complexity of
climate change and its insidious nature, both in terms of biophysical and societal effects, a
holistic approach is essential for charting adaptation pathways highlighting the importance of
understanding regional adaptive capacity and recognizing the distinctive challenges and
opportunities that pervade different cultural and institutional settings.
Being integrative means being capable of coordination across space and within society.
Sectoral barriers and compartmentalization of institutional structures and processes derail
effective planning and implementation. Both horizontal and vertical integration are therefore
necessary to enable coordinated action. An integrative approach recognizes the interrelationships
between component parts of coastal social-ecological systems and the need to unite disparate
elements into a coherent whole through institutional coordination, inter- or trans-disciplinary
analysis and praxis, and assimilation of science and local and traditional knowledge. The
challenge of enabling coordination between sectors and strata of society is explored in many case
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studies. Climate change considerations need to be mainstreamed into policies, plans, and
practice, with many case studies reiterating the increasingly recognized need to integrate climate
change adaptation into coastal governance.
The human dimension of adaptation (i.e., people) is critical to the success or failure of the
adaptation process and central to the sustainability of the process. The sheer scale of the
challenge posed by the process of adaptation requires the committed efforts of society as a
whole; hence the importance of inclusivity, equity, and empowerment.
Inclusivity refers to adaptation planning and decision-making processes that involve
coastal stakeholders and interested and affected parties in meaningful ways. Inclusive does not
imply that every person has to be involved in every decision. Rather, it recognizes that public
decisions need to be informed by those affected, without excluding any social groups. Mention
has already been made of the importance of authentic participation. It is critical that adaptation is
an inclusive and authentic process, and this requires a concerted effort and likely mediation as
conflicting interests typically emerge. In some cases, such as when relocation is the only option,
it will be impossible to meet all interests, and inclusive participation in charting adaptation
pathways becomes all the more important.
To be equitable is to be impartial, fair, and just. That the adaptation process be equitable
is essential not only for social justice, but also because inequity will inevitably lead to social
tension and vulnerability and erode sustainability prospects. Empowering means being capable
of reducing vulnerabilities and developing strengths in individuals and communities. It is both
the process and outcome of acquiring influence or power over the affairs of one’s life in a
community and is, therefore, central to enhancing adaptive capacity.
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Sustaining a reflective planning approach requires coastal communities to move beyond
business as usual and path-dependent practices leading to inequitable, unsustainable, or
maladaptive outcomes, as some of the current practices do. Making this transition requires
sustained civic leadership through innovative institutional reform. The role that elected
representatives and other governance actors play, especially at local levels, is crucial in building
support for reflective adaptation processes that can be legitimately institutionalized, up-scaled,
and replicated across regions or across the world without having to duplicate efforts time and
again. Local leadership can organize and sustain resourcing, including financial, human, and
technical resources, to implement adaptation and resilience. A responsive, deliberative, and
transformative process of adaptation helps to foster good governance under dynamic conditions
of complexity, uncertainty, surprise, and contestation. It helps to strengthen institutional
capabilities, creating a healthy environment for government decision-making, private sector
investment, and individual household livelihood choices.
The process of household and institutional capacity building is even more important in
impoverished countries where the immediate focus is on meeting immediate basic human needs.
However, vital coastal ecosystem functions, goods, and services also need to be secured to meet
those needs now and in the future. The ecosystem can sustain livelihoods and help to build
resilience in the face of escalating climate risk. The process is more likely to be supported if it is
founded on affordable, cost-effective, and broadly accepted measures that progress multiple
goals. Securing stake-holder buy- in is more achievable when the tangible and intangible
impacts, costs, benefits, and risks of climate change are clearly articulated. Exposing the cost of
poor planning decisions and the real consequences of climate change impacts in visceral and
visual terms can help to garner public support and achieve consensus.
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 53
Reflective adaptation processes take time, on the order of decades and more; efforts to
build local-level adaptive capacity requires patience, persistence, and prudence. Building a
holistic understanding of climate risk at the coast is founded on social learning and is enabled by
integrative institutional structures and processes. Planning under uncertainty requires continuous,
flexible, and transparent processes that cut across scales and engage governance actors and
networks in a manner that is inclusive and based on communication, social learning, and
monitoring of social-ecological systems. In other words, reflective adaptation planning is tailored
for particular places based on meaningful public participation. Adaptive processes need therefore
to be exploratory and experimental in nature, iterative, and able to create new pathways and
solutions at critical thresholds and when inflection points are reached (Glavovic et al., 2014).
Coastal Zone Management Under Climate Change and Deep Uncertainty
Planners use scenario analysis to deal with uncertainties. Because of the time and expense
of attempting to model reality with numerical models of high precision, planners use the scenario
planning techniques to create virtual scenarios and assess possible impacts within an order of
magnitude. Then planners design policies flexible enough to allow for contingencies in the use of
those scenarios (Carter et al., 2007). Scenarios are coherent descriptions of alternative
hypothetical futures that reflect different perspectives based on knowledge of the past, present,
and desired future; desired future developments can serve as guidelines or bases for action (Van
Notten, 2005).This type of scenario making began in the 1950sby the military to achieve
systematic but fast and effective strategic planning (Brown, 1968; Bradfield, Wright, Burta,
Carnish, & Van Der Heijden, 2005; Kahn and Wiener, 1967). Scenario analysis is a powerful
technique whose applications extend into a variety of areas, such as business development
(Bradfield et al., 2005; Van der Heijden, 1996; Wack, 1985), environmental planning (Peterson
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 54
et al., 2003), and climate change mitigation and adaptation (IPCC, 2000; Rosentrater, 2010;
Wigley, Jones, & Kelly, 1980).
Historically, within the field of policy making and ICM, sophisticated versions of
scenario planning have been developed for robust decision-making. For example, Van Asselt,
Faas, Van der Molen, &Veenman (2010) used scenario techniques coupled with a numerical
model called World3 and showed that a long-term perspective can identify problems in policy
making better than short-term planning horizons (Van Asselt et al., 2010).Researchers have used
scenario planning to address complex problems with uncertainty in dealing with policy making,
and currently authors are developing models to deal with deep uncertainty, that includes not only
climate change-related uncertainties but also the anthropogenic-caused uncertainty when user
preference and the results of intermediate policies to address those impacts are contemplated.
Uncertainty can be defined as limited knowledge about future, past, or current events. Within the
context of policy making, uncertainty also involves subjectivity because the policy making and
planning process is concerned with the level of satisfaction with existing knowledge, as defined
by the values and perspectives of the policy maker and the various actors involved in the
policymaking process, as well as the level of satisfaction with the decision options available to
them (Dewar, Builder. Hix, &Levin, 1993; Groves, 2006; Lempert, Groves, Popper, & Bankes,
2006; Lempert, Popper, & Bankes, 2003; Lempert & Schlesinger, 2000).
Uncertainty is not simply the absence of knowledge because even additional knowledge
can cause additional uncertainty. Funtowicz and Ravetz (1990) described uncertainty as a
situation of inadequate information, which can be of three sorts: inexactness, unreliability, and
lack of information or knowledge. They established examples where uncertainty can prevail in
situations in which ample information is available with no consensus regarding the meaning or
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reliability of that information (Van Asselt & Rotmans, 2002).Information can be interpreted in
several ways. Knight (1921) made an important distinction between information that means risk
and information (or lack of) that results in uncertainty. According to Knight, risk denotes the
calculable and thus controllable part of all that is unknowable. The remainder is the uncertain
incalculable and uncontrollable reality. Luce and Raiffa (1957) adopted these labels to
distinguish between decision-making under risk and decision-making under uncertainty.
Some authors also make a distinction between types of uncertainty. Quade (1989) made a
distinction between stochastic uncertainty and real uncertainty. According to Quade, stochastic
uncertainty includes frequency-based probabilities and subjective (Bayesian) probabilities,
whereas real uncertainty covers the future state of the world and the uncertainty resulting from
the strategic behavior of other actors (Walker et al., 2012). Morgan and Henrion (1990) made
another distinction between uncertainties that can be treated through probabilities and
uncertainties that cannot be treated with probabilistic models. Uncertainties that can be treated
with probabilistic models are called predictive, and stochastic uncertainties are those that cannot
be treated probabilistically because experts cannot agree upon the probabilities or uncertainties
about the state of the world and human factors for which absolutely nothing is known about
probability distributions and possible outcomes. This level of uncertainty is therefore more
troubling; these kinds of uncertainties are now referred to as deep uncertainty (Lempert et al.,
2003; Quade 1989, p. 160) or severe uncertainty (Ben-Haim, 2006).
Deep uncertainty occurs in nature; coastal and delta environments face complex problems
such as change at different scales due to interconnected environmental processes, forcing ICM to
take a long-term coastal and water management perspective under changing conditions(e.g.,
Dessai & Hulme, 2007; Middelkoop et al., 2004; Van Asselt & Rotmans, 2002). Haasnoot
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 56
(2013), one of the leading authors in the use of scenario planning, provided great examples and
applications of scenario making related to policy water management under deep uncertainty. In
the Netherlands, scenarios have been used since the 1950s to prepare water management policies
for the future.
Moving from Traditional Planning Scenarios to Dynamic and Adaptive Plans
The scenario concept originates from the 1950s and it is attributed to Herman Kahn (Van
Asseltet al., 2010). Through the use of scenarios he demonstrated that U.S. military planning was
based on “wishful thinking” instead of “reasonable expectations” (Bradfield et al., 2005, p.2).
Soon, this technique, which started as a military strategic thinking paradigm, found applications
in almost all the different sciences.
In the 1970s, scenarios were used to explore the sustainability of natural resources. Then
scenarios and computer models were coupled to further refine the results of this strategic
thinking and demonstrate that a long-term perspective helps decision makers not only to
elucidate different futures but also to identify problems in current policies (Van Asselt et al.,
2010).In a pioneer study, “The Limits to Growth," of the Club of Rome, paramount in the use of
scenarios and numerical models, the authors coupled the use of scenarios with a World3
computer model (Meadows, Meadows, Randers, &Behrens,1972).
Although in the 1980s the use of scenarios to explore the future became mainstream
worldwide (Moss et al., 2010), places like the Netherlands began to form strategic partnerships
with universities and research institutions and located themselves at the vanguard of exploring
the future in coastal settings. They needed to develop possible future inundation scenarios and
respond to protect their population and commerce, given the geographical location of their
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 57
country. Such countries as the Netherlands are in great part conformed by low lands under sea
level that sink as the land continues to become more compact.
In the 1970s, the Netherlands government through the Rijkswaterstaat Agency, in
cooperation with the RAND Corporation, began developing the Policy Analysis for the Water
Management of the Netherlands (PAWN) study, which resulted in the National Policy
Memorandum on Water Management (PWM; RAND, 1983; Rijkswaterstaat, 1985). The Dutch
government developed its national policy on water management through various policy
memoranda on water management. The first PWM had a relatively simple objective focused on
guaranteeing a fresh water supply for the country (Rijkswaterstaat, 1968). However, by the
late1980s the use of the scenario techniques coupled with more sophisticated computer models
and the general awareness of the scientific community about principles of sustainability and
intergenerational justice provided scientific support for the preparation of a second PWM
encompassing the concepts of sustainability (Rijkswaterstaat, 1984).The second PWM
emphasized water management from a cost-benefit perspective. This was a paradigm shift;
instead of ensuring water for all users, policy was now only implemented if the benefits were
larger than the costs. In the second PWM, the government stated that revision of the first PWM
was needed due to “societal developments, changes in insight and stakeholders of the water
system” (Rijkswaterstaat, 1984, p.138) The PAWN study commenced the integration of rapid
change in conditions and made more explicit the biases, errors, and limitations in model
assumptions. It took steps to address these issues by making use of sensitivity analysis when the
results of the model were different from the observed scenarios or when the uncertainty in the
problem studied had an impact on the conclusions (Rijkswaterstaat, 1985).
By 1990, the IPCC published its first assessment proposing four possible climate change
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scenarios. The scenario “business as usual” (BaU) assumed no or few policies to limit
greenhouse gas emission and was presented with a worst, better and best scenarios. The
other three “accelerated policy” scenarios described future climates incorporating the
result of carbon reducing policies after achieving certain degree of emission reduction. In
the second assessment report, the BaU scenario was elaborated upon for the climate
change scenarios IS92 proposed by the IPCC (1995). In 1988, studies for coastal defense
began to contemplate numerous scenarios. The three different SLR scenarios were
known as the policy scenarios, which considered not only the direct results of predictive
numerical models regarding SLR but included SLR after global implementation of
climate change mitigation policies. The study focused on safety against flooding, using
scenarios on SLR, river discharges, wind, and tidal conditions.
There are different types of scenario representations. Anticipatory scenarios describe the
best-guess of expert judgment, and the unfavorable scenario describes the best-guess plus
standard deviation (De Ronde &Vogel, 1988). Based on these scenarios, the Netherlands
developed a subsequent study of the impact of SLR on society (ISOS) with quantified impacts
and identified policy options (Rijkswaterstaat &Delft Hydraulics, 1988). The ISOS study was the
first to include changes in river discharges affecting the scenarios; however, socio-economic
science was not ready, and developments had to be excluded because of their large uncertainty.
By the time of the second PWM the need had surged for a third PWM, which was entitled,
“Water for Now and the Future.”It focuses on ecological and chemical water quality.
Policymakers defined future water quality targets based on past conditions and identified policy
options to reach these targets under different scenarios. The final report explicitly put forward
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guiding principles to prepare for climate change: “anticipate instead of react, create more room
for water, and do not only discharge, but also store water” (CW21, 2000, p.34).
After 2000, awareness had been raised that uncertainty over the future cannot be
eliminated (cf., Van Asselt, 2000). More research does not automatically reduce uncertainty and
may even increase it. Taleb (2007) emphasized future uncertainty with the introduction of the
Black Swans concept. These are unforeseen occurrences (unknown unknowns) with a low
probability of occurrence but having a large impact. Although from a different field, the recent
economic crisis raised awareness that (unexpected) events influence our world view. New
approaches for dealing with uncertainties continue to emerge (Carter et al., 2007; Taleb, 2007).
According to Haasnoot et, al. (2013), Russill and Nyssa (2009) and Gladwell (2000)
introduced the concept of tipping points to describe the catchiness of behavior and ideas. Moser
and Dilling (2007) used tipping points to conceptualize social changes and defined them as
“moments in time where a normally stable or only gradually changing phenomenon suddenly
takes a radical turn". Innovative beach and coastal management strategies were proposed as
solutions to be implemented once certain adaptation tipping points are reached. For example,
once inundation rates reached more than 30%, an engineering alternative will be to trigger steps,
to create more room for water near inundation zones, to confine water in narrow zones between
dikes, and to absorb water in channel beds and roads, becoming the new paradigm in river
management aimed at decreasing water levels in times of peak discharges (Dienst, Landelijk, &
Gebied, 1999; Silva et al., 2000).
Regarding coastal zone management, through the use of longer planning scenarios as
recommended by the principles of managing uncertainty, the Netherlands’ government decided
to double the amount of sand for beach nourishment in 2000 as a response to new insights on
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long-term morphological developments (Rijkswaterstaat &IMAU, 2000).The analysis also
introduced the element of land use and included predictive land use changes. In 2006, based on
extended and improved information of, among others, the IPCC's fourth assessment (IPCC,
2007), new climate change scenarios began to be tested worldwide. For example, in 2007, as a
result of the KNMI
1
Along with the KNMI’06 scenarios, the committee considered a high-end scenario
existing of a plausible upper limit of SLR in 2100 and 2200 for a robustness test of policies and
investments (Katsman et al., 2008, Katsman et al., 2011; Vellinga et al., 2008). The newly
introduced high-end scenario demonstrated to policymakers that the Netherlands can overcome.
SLR and climate change; however, it suggested future failing conditions that had to be adapted.
The advice resulted in a Delta Act Program and promulgated law as the Delta Act in 2016. The
Delta Act constitutes the legal basis for the Delta Fund, which can be used to finance the projects
of the Delta Program. The Delta Program includes extensive research to identify the climate
challenges and to explore potential solutions and thresholds, such as standards for dikes and
dams, targets for availability and distribution of freshwater, water levels of the main waterways
to keep surrounding areas safe without losing economic value, and ways to accommodate water
scenarios released in 2006, the Netherlands' government established a
second delta committee for identifying actions to prevent future disasters as the expected future
climate change and SLR “can no longer be ignored” (Delta Committee, 2008, p. 5; Kabat et al.,
2009).

1
In the Netherlands, the KNMI, the national data and knowledge institute for climate science as
lead agency of the Ministry of Infrastructure and the Environment and advisory of the Dutch
government on climate change, is in charge of developing the Netherlands’ national climate
change scenarios.
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 61
bodies to allow water management best practices in the construction of neighborhoods and
districts.
At the European level, the Flood Directive (2007/60/EC) came into force in 2007. This
directive aims at mapping and reducing flood risk as well as mapping flood-prone areas
categorized slow, medium, and high probability of inundation by an inundation extreme event
with return period ≥100 years. The Flood Directive refers to these categories as scenarios. To
coordinate adaptation efforts at the continent level, the European Climate Adaptation Platform
(CLIMATE-ADAPT) formed working groups as a part of its initiative. CLIMATE-ADAPT is a
partnership between the European Commission and the European Environment Agency to
support Europe in adapting to climate change following the IPCC guidelines and exploring new
scenarios.
Today, climate change and SLR are high on the world’s political and public agendas.
Efforts focus on increasing the level of detail to increase accuracy of scenario projections
without allowing the computational and resources demands to make their application impractical.
Planners and coastal managers are hard at work finding new ways to deal with uncertainties and
new information after the release of new scenarios by the IPCC.
After the release of each IPCC Climate Change Assessment Report incorporating the
findings of thousands of studies, the IPCC releases new and reviewed scenarios. After the release
of these IPCC scenarios, a new generation of reports is prepared at global, national, state, and
local levels in most countries of the world. Each report progressively builds on previous efforts,
increasing the level of detail available for scenario planning as new data and information become
available. Usually, climatic scenarios are described in detail using numerical descriptors, while
socio-economic trends and future targets are described qualitatively. A scenario is prescribed for
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strategy development, and mitigation and adaptation strategies are designed for the system to be
prepared for the situation described in a specific scenario (Haasnoot, 2013)
In 2009 European climate change reports started to face new difficulties and
acknowledged a different type of uncertainty introduced by stakeholder preferences and,
ironically, the availability of new information after each ICPP report. For example,
Rijkswaterstaat (2009) stated, "For the choice of a scenario the societal risk is important. For
safety issues the risk is larger, than for drainage and water logging issues. In the case of low
flexibility and high societal risk, there is a preference for the upper limits of climate change” (p.
28). The report also highlighted the difficulties of including new scientific information:
The availability of repeatedly new scenarios results in the risk that decision-making will
be postponed due to the uncertainties. On the one hand it is strived to use most recent insights
while on the other hand stable assumptions are needed for decision-making and implementation.
New insights cannot result in new assumptions and evaluations.
The need to deal with iterative information in the form of multiple scenario updates
where similar results were attained at different points of time led to a new approach using
adaptation tipping points (ATP) instead of the typical time scale for planning horizons. An
adaptation typing point due to the natural systems vulnerability is the point at which a transition
in the natural system reaches a point of no return and transitions to a different state. An
adaptation tipping point related to the anthropogenic systems’ vulnerability occurs when a policy
is no longer effective and a transition in the management policies is necessary. An anthropogenic
systems’ adaptation tipping point indicates whether and under what conditions a current
management strategy will no longer be effective after climate change (Kwadijk et al., 2010).
Because the ATP depends on the system’s achieving certain conditions and not on the time scale,
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 63
new climate scenarios will not cause a total recalculation of the vulnerability analysis, because
when using tipping points as indicators, only the timing of an ATP needs to be updated (versus
having to update all the time-dependent scenarios).Because events and surprises are recognized
as triggers for adaptation, the need to incorporate capacity of societal change and learning
experiences into the history of how the system transitions in between ATPs demonstrates that not
only the future endpoint, but also the pathway to the end point of transition are important.
Attempting to describe these pathways gave birth to a new method to explore adaptation
pathways through the use of different scenarios representing options for adaptation and choosing
one pathway for its implementation. By exploring pathways with transient scenarios, and
including the dynamic interaction between the water system and society, policymakers can
identify robust and flexible pathways or identify lock-ins (Haasnoot et, al., 2012).
Dealing with uncertainty over several variables like future climate, population, economic
trends, and future needs and preferences of society requires a new way of planning that is
iterative, fast, and minimalistic in its consumption of time and resources for every pass (every
iteration). It was in the Netherlands that the model of adaptive planning was best developed and
probably first adopted with the Adaptive Delta Planning Program. Adaptive planning seeks to
maximize flexibility in thinking about the established coastal policies and their implications and
in making decisions today that will keep options open while avoiding dead ends in the future
(Kuijken, 2011). It must also be flexible in the type of solutions offered to stakeholders. This
new way of thinking offered solutions and established coastal policies to improve, causing
another paradigm shift in the 1990s that has become widely accepted practice in the past few
years. It changes the coastal engineering perception about the relationship between the coastal
populations and their environment. It moves from the typical strategies of defense against water
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 64
(hard engineering structures) to a softer approach using natural dynamics of the system itself
(Inman, 2010). The changing approach involves restoration of wetlands, beaches, and natural
floodplains and is called ecological engineering, building with nature, and green adaptation.
These approaches are novel ways of dealing with uncertainty; instead of fighting unpredictable
future events, these adapt to what is happening and what may happen in the future (Inman, 2010;
Haasnoot, 2012).
The adaptation planning work performed for the INECC and the World Bank as well as
the research presented in this dissertation apply the state-of-the-art principles of reflective
adaptation planning and technological modeling of adaptation planning and also pushes the state-
of-the-art in adaptation practices by creating an improved adaptation model and selecting more
efficient ways to implement adaptation than just recommending a set of ten adaptation measures.
This dissertation intends to move the state of the art adaptation in the area of study from a
selection of adaptation measures under four climate change scenarios to using more robust and
dynamic adaptation planning techniques such as adaptation pathways maps, and time
independent indicators such as tipping points, turning points, thresholds and triggers to
coordinate and properly allocate adaptation resources and modify adaptation policy in a highly
efficient manner in an area of international ecological significance that could serve as pioneer for
reforming current policy and adaptation practices in Mexico.

COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 65
Chapter 3: The World Bank's Study in Context
Chapter 3 provides a detailed explanation of the vulnerability and risk model previously
developed for the World Bank study entitled, “Design of Adaptation Measures to Reduce the
Vulnerability of the Lacunae System Carmen-Pajonal-Machona to the Impacts Generated by
Future Climate Change and Human Activities. Pilot study (CPM), Tabasco, Mexico.” The Pilot
study was part of a nationwide initiative called “Adaptation of Coastal Wetlands of the Gulf of
Mexico to the Anthropogenic Impacts and the Impacts of Future Climate Change Scenarios.”
This chapter carefully describes the "top down" methodological approach used to conduct the
first Vulnerability assessment, explains why that methodological approach was chosen and
presents the results attained under that approach.
Historically, climate risk assessments have been developed according to two main
perspectives: (a) top-down and (b) bottom-up methods. In this chapter, I will explain in detail the
methodological framework behind the vulnerability assessment sponsored by the World Bank (a
top-down model) and explain the results attained that are relevant to the launching of a
supplementary analysis. Furthermore I will discuss the first-tier adaptation measures crafted in
response to this vulnerability assessment and in the next chapter, I will depart from those results
to develop a more comprehensive and robust vulnerability model encompassing as well some
important considerations introduced by a bottom-up approach.
The CPM World Bank-sponsored study is a top-down risk model, which uses the DPSIR
methodology and ground-trudging fieldwork to verify the current socio-environmental
conditions of the area of study and explains the main variables, drivers, forces, and pressures
used in calculating climate change and future anthropogenic impacts under the four climate
change scenarios recommended by the IPCC.
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 66
This chapter explains in context the methodology used to select adaptation measures in
response to vulnerabilities identified for the system and carefully documents the variables,
criteria, and local decision-maker input weighted for the selection of the top ten and top five
adaptation measures to be prioritized in the area. A high level of detail is provided in this section
to maintain consistency and transparency throughout the analysis, as a new and more robust set
of adaptation measures is proposed in the subsequent chapter based on an expanded vulnerability
assessment.
The pilot project performed for the Carmen-Pajonal-Machona Lacunae System used a
traditional top-down risk assessment model to be consistent with the conceptual and
methodological framework supported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
and the most widely used worldwide. Using this type of model will facilitate comparison with
other adaptation studies and the meta analysis of its results with the results of other similar
studies. The pilot project, was developed as a part of the national initiative, “Adaptation of
Coastal Wetlands of the Gulf of Mexico to the Anthropogenic Impacts and to the Impacts of
Climate Change Under Several Climate Scenarios”. The study determines the initial conditions
of the Lacunae system through fieldwork and bibliographic research. Then it made an analysis of
present vulnerabilities and projected the evolution of those vulnerabilities at a future time under
four prescribed climate change scenarios and finally it recommended adaptation measures to
increase the resiliency of the system against future climate change impacts.
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 67

Figure 5.Steps of the methodological approach followed for the design adaption measures during
the World Bank's study.
The analysis of vulnerabilities determines the impact of future climate change scenarios
on the present system and determines the future vulnerabilities of the system. The climate change
scenarios used to predict vulnerability at a future time were proposed by the IPCC as part of the
5th Inter-Comparison of Coupled Models Project (CMIP5; Meehl & Bony, 2012).
Environmental Baseline and Current System's Vulnerability Findings
The CPM study used 2014 as initial time (T=0) to represent current conditions of the
system, and the climate change scenarios used for the projections were:
• RCP4.5 for the year 2030
• RCP8.5 for the year 2030
• RCP4.5 for the year 2100
• RCP8.5 for the year 2100
Profesional expertise, local expertise
and use of rigorous scientific
methodology
Field work
Id existing information
and perform
bibliographic research
Assessment of current
conditions
Key sites for
implementation
Identification of adaptation measures to:
1. Increase natural resiliency and protection of ecological hot spots
2. T o reduce vulnerability in hot spots
Community involvement
Identification of
vulnerability hot spots
Identification of ecological
value hot spots
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 68
where RCP4.5 are low-emission scenarios and RCP8.5 are high-emission scenarios. Both
scenarios were simulated for years 2030 and 2100. The possible impacts and the vulnerability of
the system to those impacts were calculated using the conditions expected under those climate
change scenarios projected over the present conditions and present vulnerability of the area of
study at time T=0.
The main changes identified while running climate change scenarios occurred in the
atmospheric temperature, the distribution of the rainfall, and the sea level rise.
Table 2 shows the anomalies in temperature and precipitation projected for the 2030, and 2100
scenarios.
Table 2
Annual Averages and Climate Change Predicted Anomalies for Temperature and Precipitation
Scenario Temperature T anomaly Precipitation P Anomaly
RCP4.5 2030 25.7 ° C + 0.9 ° C 1972 mm -1.4%
RCP8.5 2030 25.8 ° C + 1.1 ° C 1982 mm -0.8 %
RCP4.5 2100 26.9 ° C + 2.1 ° C 1891 mm -5.4 %
RCP8.5 2100 29.4 ° C + 4.7 ° C 1767 mm -11.6 %

Subsidence projections were considered when calculating the relative increase of sea
level. The analysis of SLR included subsidence given that the subsidence on the area is almost as
important as the change in sea level elevation. Subsidence scenarios were also developed for
2030 and 2100 scenarios. Table 3 shows the variations in SLR under the suggested climate
change scenarios.
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 69
Table 3
Total Elevation Change Under Different Climate Change Scenarios
Scenario

Sea level rise (cm)

Subsidence (cm)
Total elevation
change
(cm)
RCP4.5 2030 12.2 19.0 31.2
RCP8.5 2030 12.9 19.0 31.9
RCP4.5 2100 55.1 40.0 95.1
RCP8.5 2100 75.8 40.0 115.8

In general, the climate change scenarios for the year 2030 (RCP4.5 low and RCP8.5
high) yielded similar results; however, the differences between the impacts of the low-emission
(RCP4.5) versus the high-emission scenarios (RCP8.5) become more significant over time.
The most significant climate change effects projected under the four climate change
scenarios were observed in the atmospheric temperature, precipitation, and SLR. The modeling
projections suggest that the climate of Mexico will be substantially modified by global warming
during the 21st century, with an increase in temperature ranging from around 2° C (RCP4.5) up
to 5° C (RCP8.5) with a larger increase in the summer. These results may also be considered
valid for the Carmen-Pajonal-Machona study area. In terms of precipitation, the projected
changes depend mainly on the season, decreasing in winter -10% (in 2030) to -50% (in 2100)
with a noticeable increase in average rainfall in summer. However, the water balance in the area
remains almost constant. The changes in the precipitation patterns can be better seen as changes
in intensity of climatic conditions, longer and more intense periods of drought in winter and
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 70
spring with more intense precipitation in summer. The results attained in this study are aligned
with the results described by other authors for similar scenarios.
Recent studies have suggested that the potential for extreme events is exacerbated by
projected high gradients in temperature and precipitation patterns (larger periods of drought and
higher temperatures during the summers due to the extended periods of drought with more
extreme winters presenting more frequent extreme events and intense precipitation; Cavazos et
al., 2013)
Extreme events such as tropical cyclones and Nortes are currently common throughout
the region, and they will become more threatening in the short- and medium-term due to a
projected increase of frequency and intensity. In the long-term, a third level of threat is added to
the system because of the long-term compounding bio-geophysical effects of those extreme
events(e.g., coastal erosion, saltwater intrusion into coastal aquifers, loss of coastal wetlands)
make the land more vulnerable to subsequent events.
In addition, while the effects of climate change are expected to increase, the capacity of
the response by the local population is expected to decrease due to the current levels of poverty
and an economy largely dependent on seasonal weather conditions. Although everyone will be
affected by climate change, the poorest populations that lack the resources to adapt will be the
most vulnerable (Anzaldo, Hernandez, &Rivera, 2008). These communities will need to increase
resilience and adaptation to ensure survival (i.e., a reduction of vulnerability to the adverse
effects of climate change).
The effects of climate change are compounded by the effects of urban development in an
area where the variations of population structure and uncontrolled migratory movements
erratically modify future economic trends in consumption, production, and use of resources. In
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 71
such a fragile system, poorly planned population growth puts at risk the provision of ecosystem
services sufficient to meet the needs of all its inhabitants, which complicates the process of
poverty eradication, systematically weakening the ability of poor communities to adapt to
climate change and leading to extreme humanitarian crises.
Some of the populations in our area of study are already contemplating permanent
migration and abandonment of their land in eroding shores as a response to the effects of climate
change, but this population, living at the eroding sandbar faces the social conflict inherent to
reestablishing inland. The abandonment of traditions and uprooting of indigenous groups and
other cultural aspects are damaging the social fabric of communities, further weakening their
capacity to respond. This cycle can be reversed by creating a strong local economy that, although
it could remain natural resource and climate dependent, will adapt and be resilient to future
conditions. This would change the definition of the demographic scenarios in the neighborhoods
surrounding the lagoon system and create a socio-environmental partnership where local
populations serve as a guardian of local ecosystems that provide them with food, land, and
resources security. The social dynamics need to be reinforced and protected as much as or more
than the environmental dynamics to achieve socio-ecosystem resistance to future conditions. The
results of the vulnerability analysis indicate that the policy goals, targets, and specific objectives
for future land use and adaptation plans in the area need to be crafted to achieve a very careful
balance of community- and environment-oriented adaptation to secure a future for the region
within the context of equally important future climate and anthropogenic-caused changes
(Michetti et al., 2016).
The initial conditions of the system and the results of the analysis of vulnerabilities at
T=0 are summarized in Table 4.
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 72
Table 4
Analysis of Vulnerabilities for the Carmen-Pajonal-Machona Lagoon System
Topic Main issues
Stability of the
Sandbar
Coastline erosion, dune erosion, and deterioration
Flooding and risk of bar breakdown in extreme events
High vulnerability of infrastructure (road, power distribution network) and
coastal communities
Hydrodynamics
of the lagoon
system
High vulnerability to floods in areas surrounding lagoon system
High probability of subsidence and increased exposure to SLR (eustatism)
High values of time water residence on the lagoon systems hinterland
prone to low oxygen conditions
Pollution of the
lagoon system
Lack of wastewater treatment
Microbiological contamination (fecal coliforms) in some areas of the
lagoon and potential risk to human health due to the consumption of raw
oysters
The data do not allow definite characterization of the degree of
environmental pollution in the lagoon system
High variability among data from different information sources
State of the
ecosystem
Presence of three mangrove species: black or Prieto, red, and white
Buttonwood mangrove were not found in the field work of this project,
although they were reported in historical documents
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 73
Topic Main issues
Extreme loss of mangrove coverage and fragmentation of habitat in 1999–
2015 due to changes of land use (increasing urban uses, areas for
cultivation and animal husbandry) and illegal logging and shore erosion
In general mangrove populations are not balanced due to the forest’s being
young, with mostly thin trees
Subaquatic vegetation not found
Soil degradation
Salinization of shallower aquifers and agricultural land
Local contamination of the soil due to accidental hydrocarbons spills
Infrastructure
Disruption of roads network systems and water and power grids caused by
extreme events such as storms and floods
Erosion of the sandbar and the road placed at the top
Lack of maintenance of the distribution network
Socio-cultural
and economic
conditions
High vulnerability of local communities to climate variability and in
particular to extreme events (such as storms and floods)
Fishing and agriculture heavily dependent on climatic conditions and have
been affected directly or indirectly by those (e.g., salinization of soil, rise
of temperatures, overexploitation of fisheries)
Limited access to safe, good quality drinking water and general lack of
basic infrastructure
Insufficient organizational capacity of both the people within a community
and among different communities
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 74
Topic Main issues
Poverty, gender inequality; lack of education, employment, and personal
development opportunities

Selection of Adaptation Measures in Response to Current System's Vulnerability
The CPM study used a trans-disciplinary approach integrating social and environmental
variables to consider the full spectrum of environmental, social, and economic dynamics
interacting within the system as well as the relationships and multiple-level interactions between
them. The socioeconomic environment is considered as one unit for purposes of this study.
Adaptation measures addressing the socioeconomic needs of the local communities and
the coastal environments simultaneously were created to increase the stability and resiliency of
the system to the combined natural and anthropogenic future impacts. The conceptual and
methodological framework used for the selection and development of the proposed adaptation
measures is shown in Table 5 and each step will be explained in detail in the remaining parts of
the chapter.
Table 5
Conceptual Framework Used for Selection of Main Adaptation Measures
Key Steps used for Adaptation Measures Selection for CPM
1. Follow the methodological framework top-down risk assessment as recommended by
the ICPP to determine current conditions and current vulnerabilities on the system. Use
definitions of climate change, resiliency, adaptation, and others as defined by the ICPP.
Use IPCC provided climate change scenarios.
2. Create model of pressure, state, impact, and response (PSIR) diagrams with present
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 75
and future conditions scenarios.
3. Analyze future vulnerability through a sequential series of steps that uses the
prescribed climate scenarios to assess impacts and prepare adaptation strategies in
response to those impacts using risk management theory from T= 2014 (present) to
RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 for T= 2030 and T= 2100.
4. Use specifically design methodology to compile a list of adaptation measures based on
the results of the vulnerability study. Select criteria to evaluate and rank the
compilation according to the conditions of the environment and the user’s perspective.
Select ten top adaptation measures and make a final public consultation for the
selection of the top five adaptation measures.

Using the Top-Down Risk Assessment Methodological Framework (ICPP)
The IPCC is the international body for assessing the science related to climate change.
The IPCC was set up in 1988 by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and UN
Environment Program (UNEP) to provide policymakers with regular assessments of the
scientific basis of climate change, its impacts, its future risks, and identification of options for
adaptation and mitigation. IPCC assessment reports usually point to areas of well-established
knowledge and to an evolving understanding that multiple perspectives of climate change exist.
The concepts of mitigation, adaptation, resiliency, climate change, and other important
operational definitions used for this work come from the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report. The
main operational definitions are summarized in
Table 6 (for a more comprehensive list of terms and definitions see the Appendix 1 Glossary).

COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 76
Table 6
Operational Definitions Recommended by the IPCC 2007

Resilience is the ability of a socio-ecological system to respond to and recover from a
deleterious event (e.g., flooding, extreme drought, incidence of a pest or disease), including
those intrinsic conditions that allow the system to act in front of the event, absorb its impacts,
and, once it has passed the same, implement adaptive processes that facilitate its
reorganization, change, and ability to respond to the next threat. It is the ability of a socio-
ecological system to absorb an alteration without losing basic structure or modes of
functioning, capacity for self-organization, or capacity to adapt to stress and change (IPCC,
2007).

Adaptability to climate change or resilience of a socio-ecological system depends on several
interlocking factors, especially determined by its type of natural ecosystem, state of
ecological integrity, and characteristics of the socio-ecological system. The social capital and
the strengths of undertaking collective action by a society. The level of knowledge, both
scientific and traditional, that this society contains or has accumulated over time. Its
preponderant ethical values versus the management of uncertainty. The spatial and social
scales where this adaptation takes place.

Adaptation to climate change can be defined as the ability of a system (human, natural, or
socio-ecological) to adjust to climate change (including climate variability and extreme
phenomena). In this way, it is possible to moderate potential harms, seize opportunities, and
deal with consequences (IPCC 2001b on adaptation measures).

COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 77
Adaptation Measures are technologies, processes, and practices used to implement policies
that can reduce greenhouse gas emissions below anticipated future levels. Examples include
taxes on carbon or other energy and rules for improving the efficiency of fuels in
automobiles. Common, coordinated, or harmonized policies are those adopted jointly by the
parties.

Adaptation Policy: includes those actions that can be carried out or order by a government
often together with companies and industries within their own countries and other countries
to accelerate the implementation and use of measures to curb greenhouse gas emissions.(UN
Framework Convention on Climate Change).

Adaptive Management is an essential attribute in any strategy to adapt to climate change. It
consists of the incorporation of a formal learning process into the decision-making circuit so
that the experiences gained can be capitalized upon in an action-oriented adaptation to
change (such as the climate) and thus reduce the level of uncertainty toward the future. In
human systems, adaptation seeks to moderate or avoid damage or seize opportunities,
whereas in natural systems, human intervention can facilitate adjustment to an expected
climate change and its effects (IPCC, 2014a).

Creating a Model of Drivers, Pressures, State, Impacts, And Response (DPSIR) Diagrams
The model of driver, pressure, state, impact, and response analysis (DPSIR) describes the chain
of effects of the main drivers and forces producing stressors on the system and describes
sequentially how those pressures affect certain components of the system. DPSIR diagrams also
show how the system responds to those elements of pressure and documents any change in
system stage when it occurs. The research team working on Carmen-Pajonal-Machona produced
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 78
a logical framework following the principles of the DPSIR methodology as a way to analyze
systematically future climate change impacts as well as the future effects of anthropogenic
activities over each of the present vulnerabilities of the system identified as central for the
analysis. The research team developed DPSIR diagrams to aid the visualization and
identification of the impacts and to show and sum up (to the extent possible) the complexity of
the interactions between the induced pressures and the different variables of the system (taking
into account both climatic and non climatic driving forces). The DPSIR diagrams created for the
World Bank analysis are not shown in this dissertation; however, modified versions under the
expanded view of this dissertation are included in Chapter 4. The main variables identified by the
DPSIR analysis for the CPM lacunae system under future climate change pressures are shown in
Figure 6, which summarizes the results of the DPSIR analysis for the CPM system.
Climate Change as Driver of Change

Forces:
Temperature (increase in atmospheric temperature)
Temperature (increase in water temperature)
Precipitation (increase in frequency and intensity, decrease in duration, no net volume
change)
Extreme events (increase in frequency and intensity)
SLR and subsidence

Pressures:
Increased atmospheric and water temperatures will result in increased SLR
Increase of SLR will result in waves’ eroding higher areas of beach and dunes, changes
on the beach profile, and redistribution or loss of sediment
Dune and beach erosion further weakens the sandbar that separates the lagoons from
the ocean, allowing saline intrusion, liquefaction, and accumulation of interstitial salt
water, degrading soils with salinization
More frequent and intense extreme events will further accentuate beach and dune
erosion, more frequent and intense precipitation will increase flooding, which will
accentuate problems of erosion, salinization, and damages to infrastructure

System States:
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 79
Sandbar rupture
Dune erosion
Sediment deficit
Coastal retreat

Impacts:
Sandbar rupture will cause a radical change in the lagoon’s salinity, water quality,
circulation, sediment redistribution, and accelerated dune and bar erosion, coastal
retreat will increase the vulnerability of the lacunae system and the local communities
living in the area
Erosion of the sandbar and dunes will cause vegetation losses, deforestation, and
further erosion
Deforestation will result in biodiversity losses and further damage to mangroves
Decrement of lacunae system productivity affects fisheries, agriculture, and
aquaculture

Responses:
Sandbar will redistribute sediment to a new balance state
Sediment redistribution will occur until system reaches new equilibrium
Deforestation will cause changes of mangrove species

Figure 6. Summary of the DPSIR analysis using climate change as main driver
The environmental pressures, such as climate change and land use changes, influence the
natural resources’ availability. The socio-economic pressures affect land use and natural
resources demand as well as spatial claims from natural land to anthropogenic uses. These
interacting pressures influence the system state until they produce a change in the system stage.
The system state is defined by certain variables (quantity and quality) that characterize the
uniqueness of the system. Changes in the system state have an impact on the social, economic,
and ecological services the system can provide and increases (or decreases) its vulnerability. For
example, when the sandbar breaks as a consequence of sea level rise, the lacunae system changes
from a brackish water system to a salt water system altering the drinking water supply, the
agriculture and aqua- cultural practices, the natural habitats, and the socio-economy activities
depending on the water quality of the lagoon system. The effects of this change may lead to a
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 80
societal response and to a change in perception and valuation of the lagoon's environment and
the water system per se. This change in perception and valuation may cause inherent changes in
adaptation policy choices and management responses to avoid undesired futures. As user
preference change, it will be the selection and implementation of adaptation measures. Planning
for adaptation then has to be an iterative process.
Analyzing Future Vulnerability through Hotspots
The team did bibliographic research for about six months to gather existing data and
bibliographic information as a first step to the analysis. This information was then validated with
data obtained in the field (e.g., tides, waves, currents, bathymetry, beach profiles, particle size,
lagoon water quality, sediment samples, land vegetation, mangroves, and sub-aquatic vegetation)
through activities specifically designed to assess the current conditions of the Carmen-Pajonal-
Machona lagoon system documenting the impacts of current anthropological activities and the
hotspots of vulnerability in the system.
This study understands system's vulnerability as the extent to which a natural or social
system is susceptible to sustaining damage from climate change as define by (IPCC, 1995). The
CPM system's vulnerability depends on three key issues: (a) sensitivity of the system, the degree
to which a system will respond to harmful or beneficial climate change; (b) adaptive capacity of
the system, the degree to which a system can adapt to expand upon or diminish potential
damages; and (c) the system's degree of exposure.
The spots of maximum exposure, major sensitivity, and low capacity of response that
worsen over time are considered vulnerability hotspots.
The principles of risk management theory point to two main approaches to deal with
vulnerability and avoid the unacceptable consequences of climate change: adaptation and
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 81
mitigation. The scope of the study is to create adaptation measures applicable to the Carmen-
Pajonal-Machona lagoon system to increase its resiliency and capacity of response to the present
and future identified system vulnerabilities; therefore, an inventory of possible adaptation
measures in response to each of the system’s vulnerability hotspots was created. The
vulnerability hotspots identified for the CPM lagoon are listed in Table 7.
Table 7
Vulnerability Hotspots Identified for the CPM Lacunae System
Vulnerability
hotspot
Main issues
Consequences
Stability of the
sandbar
Coastline erosion, dune
erosion, and deterioration
SLR increases the level of the waves
reaching the dunes, and these (and the
beach) are eroded, increasing instability of
the protective sandbar
Flooding and risk of sandbar
breakdown in extreme events;
expected increase in frequency
and intensity of extreme events
Flood vulnerability on some areas of the
sandbar can weaken the dune system and
allow ocean water to cross the lagoon and
flood certain areas of the bar, affecting
residential areas and roads.
The increase in extreme events (nortes and
hurricanes) generates high energy waves,
tides of storms, and rains to flood and
erode the area.
High vulnerability of
infrastructure (road, power
distribution network) and
coastal communities
The above vulnerabilities increase
cumulatively with instability and the risk of
breakage of the bar, especially during
extreme events.
Hydrodynamics
and water
quality issues
High vulnerability to floods in
areas surrounding the lagoon
system
Risk of flooding of surrounding areas of
the lagoon system increases with SLR and
the increase of extreme events (wind and
rain).
High probability of subsidence
and increased exposure to sea
level rise (eustatism) and salt
water intrusion
Saline intrusion intensifies by 2100 due to
the increase of sea level and morphological
change in the bar (opening a new mouth).
Transformation of the lagoon system to
saline environment is similar to a bay.
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 82
Vulnerability
hotspot
Main issues
Consequences
High values of time water
residence on the Lagoon
systems hinterland prone to
low oxygen conditions
Increase in the degree of confinement of
the water inside the lagoon by year 2030
leads to major amounts of sediment
deposition, causing a decrease of the
volume of water exchanged in the coastal
body; this results in an increased risk of
anoxia.
Water quality issues due to
anthropogenic pollutants
Pollution of the CPM lagoon system is due
to solid residue management issues and
organic matter due to aquaculture and
inorganic pollutants as a byproduct of
farming.
State of the
mangrove
ecosystem
General decline in the health
of the mangrove ecosystem
Presence of three mangrove species: black,
red, and white, but no longer Buttonwood
mangrove, although these were reported in
historical documents. Currently mangrove
populations are not balanced due to the
forest’s being young, with mostly thin
trees, and this makes it fragile and highly
vulnerable.
Issues of illegal mangrove
logging

There has been an extreme loss of
mangrove coverage and fragmentation of
habitat from 1999–2015 due to changes of
land use (increasing urban uses, areas for
cultivation and animal husbandry), illegal
logging, and shore erosion
Health hazard from stale water
captured among the trees
Frequent flooding and lack of appropriate
drainage results in a perfect environment of
stale water for the procreation of vectors
transmitting tropical illness to the local
population
Sub-aquatic vegetation not
found
Mangrove needs to migrate inland faster
than the SLR to survive. Time of
inundation and exposure to salinity are
tipping points for the mangrove population
Soil
degradation
Salinization of shallower
aquifers and agricultural land
Salinization of underground reserves of
fresh water is increasing from rising saline
intrusion
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 83
Vulnerability
hotspot
Main issues
Consequences
Local contamination of soil
due to accidental hydrocarbon
spills
Permanent damage to the ecosystem is due
to accidental hydrocarbon spills
Loss of agricultural land and
mangrove coverage
Conflicts in future land use are due to the
increasing demand for fertile, unpolluted
soil usable for anthropogenic activities.
Infrastructure
Disruption of roads, network
systems, and water and power
grids caused by extreme events
such as storms and floods
Increase in the level of damage to the built
environment and roads is caused by
extreme flooding
Lack of maintenance of the
distribution network
Increase in the level of damage to the
electric infrastructure interrupts services
during and after extreme floods
Socio-cultural
and economic
conditions
High vulnerability of local
communities to climate
variability and in particular to
extreme events (such as storms
and floods)
The economy of communities (agriculture,
fisheries, and livestock) is particularly
vulnerable to climate variability. Expected
climate change (and its impacts) will
increase the problems already affecting the
CPM lagoon system

Fishing and agriculture are
heavily dependent on climatic
conditions and have been
already affected directly or
indirectly by those, for
example by the salinization of
soil, rise of temperatures, and
overexploitation of fisheries
The economy of communities (agriculture,
fisheries, and livestock) is particularly
vulnerable to climate variability. Expected
climate change (and its impacts) will
increase the problems already affecting the
CPM lagoon system
Limited access to safe, good
quality drinking water, and
general lack of basic
infrastructure
Fresh water scarcity is increased by
increased salinization and impacts and
damages to the network of distribution (in
particular by increasing the risk of flood
and of extreme events)
Insufficient organizational
capacity of both the people in
a community and among
different communities
Low capacity community response is a
cause of the current socio-economic
vulnerability and can be increased by
climate change
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Vulnerability
hotspot
Main issues
Consequences
Poverty, gender inequality,
and lack of education,
employment, and personal
development opportunities
Vulnerable economy is a cause of the
current socio-economic system fully
dependent on weather, where vulnerability
can be increased by climate change.

(adapted from Avendano et al., 2016)
Design and Selection of Adaptation Measures Based on the Results of the System's
Vulnerability Hotspots Analysis.
A prospective analysis of impacts and vulnerabilities indicates what management or
adaptation strategies could be successful to delay, ameliorate, mitigate, or avoid the potential
effects of climate change, anthropologic effects and SLR over the system at different time steps.
This provides a panorama for possible implementation of the adaptation measures when needed.
By comparing (a) the initial system conditions, (b) the user desired system conditions, or
(c) the optimal environmental conditions for the system with the future physical conditions of the
system under the prescribed scenarios, we can identify the most salient and undesired impacts of
climate change, sea level rise and anthropologic activities on the system according to the
preferences of our decision makers and create a plan for adaptation.
There are several actions we can take to avoid undesired futures. When the analysis of
future vulnerabilities indicates that the system's vulnerability reduces itself within time, it is
called autonomous adaptation. The system's autonomous adaptation can be used to leverage the
efforts of planned adaptation. When the analysis of future vulnerabilities indicates that
vulnerability maintains itself within time but does not get worse or better, there is the choice of
not taking action to allocate resources until there is a significant change in vulnerability. But
when the analysis of future vulnerabilities indicates that a vulnerability increases over time, we
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have found vulnerability hotspots for which adaptation strategies should be addressed as a first
priority if we want to drive the future vulnerability outcomes closer to desirable future outcomes.
This framework of analysis is shown in Figure 7.
To define what are the desired future outcomes for the local communities, community
involvement workshops were organized targeting two different sets of users (a) the local
community living in the area of study and fully dependent on climate related activities and (b)
the professional users and decision makers invested on the future of the region. With the input of
the community, an inventory of possible adaptation measures was developed both, in response to
the vulnerability hotspots identified by the study and in response to the preferences an concerns
of the local community. Each adaptation measure was designed with the objective of mitigating,
or avoiding the effects of climate change and to provide resilience to the CPM lacunae system as
a socio-ecological system.
.
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Figure 7. Flow chart of process for design of adaptation measures to move the system from
projected vulnerability conditions to more desired future conditions. (Source: Haasnoot, 2013)
To define what are the desired future outcomes for the local communities, community
involvement workshops were organized targeting two different sets of users (a) the local
community living in the area of study and fully dependent on climate related activities and (b)
the professional users and decision makers invested on the future of the region. With the input of
the community, an inventory of possible adaptation measures was developed both, in response to
the vulnerability hotspots identified by the study and in response to the preferences an concerns
of the local community.
Each adaptation measure was designed with the objective of mitigating, or avoiding the
effects of climate change and to provide resilience to the CPM lacunae system as a socio-
ecological system.
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Subsequent to the construction of an adaptation measures inventory, it is necessary to
create a method to rank, select, and evaluate the adaptation measures. The proposed adaptation
measures can be ranked by preference of the local communities and decision makers, can be
ranked by their predicted performance in maintaining the desirable conditions of the environment
at present and at a future time or they may be ranked by their efficiency in fulfilling adaptation
objectives under the different future climate change scenarios.
The methodology used to filter adaptation measures included filtering by their
effectiveness, and by the degree to which the adaptation measure incorporated the perspectives
of the local communities, the academics, and the elected officials to ensure the acceptance and
implementation of suggested adaptation strategies by the communities.
The selection of filtering criterion expanded to measuring their effectiveness to reduce
the vulnerability of the Carmen-Pajonal-Machona lagoon system to impacts generated by climate
change and human activities in the future by creating system's capacity and by increasing its
resiliency. One of the project’s main objectives was to design low-cost adaptation measures to be
replicated in key sites of the Carmen-Pajonal-Machona lagoon system so criteria for cost,
affordability and replicability needed to be included in the selection process. The criteria of
replicability also accounted for creating efficiencies in the process of implementing regional
level adaptation and achieving government agencies coordination and cooperation.
The adaptation measures had to respond equally to the impacts generated by the effects of
both, future climate change and future anthropological activities. The adaptation measures
identified needed also to be replicable and implemented in several identified “key sites” of the
Carmen-Pajonal-Machona lagoon system. Those key sites were either vulnerability hotspots
(where the most damage can be prevented) or sites of major ecological value that need to be
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 88
preserved or, if possible, enhanced to increase the system’s ecological, social, and economic
resiliency and stability.
The second filter for the selection of adaptation measures was that the recommendations
needed to be consistent with the current adaptation efforts at the local, state, and, if possible,
national levels to avoid inconsistencies with existing policies and recommendations, achieving a
degree of coordination and coherence with the rest of the institutional efforts in the region. The
CPM system was one of the first three sites chosen at the national level to be a pilot project and
showcase for the World's 5th National Climate Change Adaptation Best Practices in
representation of Mexico. A national level coordination workshop was organized to coordinate
all adaptation practitioners contributing at the time in the “Gulf of Mexico Coastal Wetlands
Adaptation Project’ TF-096681,” held at the offices of INECC, Mexico City, on January 14,
2015. A general coordination and communication strategy was established among all
consultancies working on different adaptation measures forming part of the adaptation efforts at
the regional level. Previous results on adaptation in Mexico, and Tabasco in particular, were
summarized in the book, "Adapting to the Impacts of Climate Change on Coastal Wetlands in
the Gulf of Mexico, vols. I and II", providing the starting point for the bibliographical research.
Figure 8 shows the strategy designed to incorporate all information from different components
of the project into the design of the adaptation measures.
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Results of the Community Engagement Workshops
A) Preferred adaptation measures by local communities

1. Women empowerment campaigns
2. Early warning systems and emergency response centers
3. Environmental damage compensation by PEMEX
4. Mangrove reforestation
5. Dredging of rivers and navigation channels to reestablish water circulation
patterns
6. River trash collection basins and trash disposal strategies
7. Eradication of riverine massive invasive species
8. Resilient home vegetable and fruits garden systems (elevated and movable,
flood resistant)
9. Outreach, climate change, and environmental education campaigns
10. Community organization to respond to extreme events
11. Extreme event shelters
12. Community emergency response against flooding
13. Solar panels installation
14. Governance reform for transparency and true community support
15. Crop insurance
16. Rain water catchment and filtration systems
17. Food banks

B) Preferred adaptation measures by local academic and professional,
decision makers and elected officials

1. Sustainable energy efficient housing
2. Risk and disaster prevention response units per community
3. Coastal lagoon sandbar stabilization to manage current urban development
and create a time frame for relocation when necessary
4. Formalization of aquaculture practices to further economic and social
development making communities more resilient
5. Water quality improvement through natural wetlands source point pollution
prevention strategies
6. Substrate desalinization to recover farming lands; development of
hydrophobic cultures if no land is viable due to salinization problems
7. Reestablish community trust through outreach campaigns
8. Programmatic climate change research and monitoring at regional level
9. Programmatic public health programs to mitigate and prevent climate related
illness
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 90
10. Blue Green Credits or payments per environmental services
11. Gender equalization campaigns to increase the resilience among population
(women)
12. Integrated waste management to increase as temperature increases

Figure 8.Adaptation measures preferred by the local community and adaptation measures
selected by vulnerability hotspots. (Source: Avendano et al., 2016)
To find the best adaptation measures suitable for the area, an inventory proven previously
successful adaptation measures designed for places with similar socio-environmental conditions
was compiled. Special attention was given to other parts of the world that have already
responded to similar system vulnerabilities as those identified for the CPM area of study. The
adaptation objectives for each measure was designed according to the vulnerabilities to avoid.
Then relevant criterion to evaluate the effectiveness of each adaptation measure in achieving
those objectives was compiled in a list. More weight was given to adaptation goals at system
level and to those that directly incentivize the local communities.
A second list of relevant criterion was compiled by using the more salient concepts and
theoretical frameworks for the state-of the art adaptation practices including:
• The theoretical framework of adaptation planning including the concepts and definitions
of climate change, vulnerability, risk, adaptation, adaptation measures, and adaptation
strategies as defined by the ICPP;
• The current national, state, and local adaptation policy frameworks influencing the area
of study;
• The perspective framework, incorporating sponsors’ contractual requirements, the
mission of the local and federal agencies involved in the study, and the preferences of the
local communities, as well as the environmental priorities of the region;
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• Available variables and indicators used by other authors to evaluate adaptation measures
performance under different climate change scenarios;
• The applicable criterion suggested by various adaptation methodologies such as (a)
adaptation based in communities, (b) adaptation based in ecosystems, (c) adaptation
under conditions of extreme social and economic vulnerability, (d) integral approach to
adaptation, among others. Table 8 presents a summary of the adaptation approaches
reviewed for this analysis.
Table 8
Different Adaptation Approaches (adapted from Lara and Vides-Almonacid, 2014)
Ecosystem-Based Adaptation
Ecosystem-based adaptation (EBA) focuses on the protection of ecosystems as a
point of departure, assuming that protecting ecosystems is thus protecting
populations that depend on ecosystems and their services simultaneously.
The basis of this approach is to identify how climate change affects the
functions, goods, and services that ecosystems provide to the populations that
depend on them. The fundamental principle of this approach is that healthy
ecosystems play a vital role as they maintain and increase natural resilience to
climate change and help reduce climate risks. Examples of this approach are
flood prevention through wetland maintenance and restoration or conservation
of agro-biodiversity to promote crop and livestock adaptation.
Ecosystem-based adaptation as part of a comprehensive adaptation strategy can
have multiple benefits including:
• Ability to replicate spatially and temporally: adaptation projects can be
implemented in different countries or regions with similar problems;
• Potential for reducing vulnerability to different types of climate and non-
climate stress. For example, this is effective for intersectoral adaptation,
contributing to livelihood maintenance and food security, sustainable water
management, disaster risk reduction, and conservation of biodiversity;
• Accessibility: EBA implementation may be more accessible in rural
communities that depend primarily on ecosystem services than the
implementation of adaptation measures based solely on infrastructure and
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engineering.
Positive synergies and externalities generate co-benefits in economic, social,
environmental, and cultural aspects.
Community-Based Adaptation
Community-based adaptation (CBA) is a community-led process based on the
community’s priorities, needs, and capabilities that is geared toward
empowering people to cope with the impacts of climate change. This adaptation
approach assumes that the rural communities are going to suffer the greatest
impacts of climate change because they are less protected from climatic
conditions than urban communities. Rural communities, moreover, must face
such conditions as unemployment, access to food, conflicts, and health
problems, which makes them more vulnerable. Interventions aimed exclusively
at managing climate risks are unlikely to reflect the priorities of the community,
so it is essential that interventions proposed in communities where poverty
predominates not only reduce vulnerability to climate change and disaster risks
but also address poverty reduction and social backwardness.
Community-based adaptation projects might look like development projects on
the surface, but they are centered in promoting the use of scientific information
(e.g., projections on future temperature or precipitation) and local information to
project the changes that will be experienced by local communities and strategies
to address climate change’s effects on their livelihoods. A good resource to
prevent these community-based adaptation projects from failing in the medium-
and long-term is the community adaptation scheme presented by CARE
International, which proposes a series of support factors that must be provided
to achieve a true community adaptation such as:
• Strategies to promote climate-based livelihoods;
• Strategies that reduce disaster risk by mitigating the impact of hazards;
• Capacity building in local civil society and government institutions; and
• Advocacy, social mobilization, and empowerment to address the root causes of
vulnerability.
Adaptation Based on Technology and Infrastructure
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Adaptation strategies based on technology and infrastructure are based mainly
on risk and vulnerability management. This approach seeks to increase socio-
ecological resilience through investments in such things as infrastructure (e.g.,
irrigation), development of new technologies (e.g., food production), public
health programs (especially prevention and immunization against vector and
disease spread), and urban planning (particularly in human settlements at sea
level). This approach is popular at the state level with plans to adapt to climate
change through public investment and financial leverage by multilateral
cooperation among agencies
Particularly in the case of large infrastructure projects such as transportation
networks and electricity or aqueducts, it needs to have a life expectancy of
several decades to justify the investment. The infrastructure is exposed to the
climatic variations that may occur during its lifetime, and it is difficult to justify
the investment when it faces a high degree of uncertainty. To accurately
calculate the project’s lifetime expectation, one must know future conditions of
the climate and identify the needs of adaptation to the present threats
This type of calculation has traditionally been developed by extrapolating costs
and trends from past conditions that can no longer be assumed valid in the future
because of the magnitude and speed of change introduced in recent decades (UN
Development Program, 2008)
There is a new ideological trend based on the principle of resilient infrastructure
called climate shielding that identifies the risks facing a development project due
to variability and climate change and reduces these risks to acceptable levels
through the inclusion of viable changes from the economic and social points of
view
This approach can be incorporated into one or several stages of the project cycle:
planning, design, construction, operation, or closure of operations. However, the
cost of this approach can be very high (UN Development Program, 2008).
Infrastructure climate shielding can include both structural measures (e.g.,
construction of dykes, breakwaters, retaining walls) and non-structural measures
(e.g., land use management, implementation of building codes)
Adaptation Based on Traditional Knowledge
Local communities in tune with their environments are aware and observe in
detail the effects of climate change on their surroundings because they are most
closely associated with the community’s way of life. Some local communities’
traditional knowledge provides them with strong bases for land use and resource
best management practices. These are considered highly effective strategies for
climate change adaptation.
Local rural communities, closely connected to their environments, are usually
the first to notice and respond to changes in the ecosystem and to adapt their
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 94
lifestyle through structural strategies rather than adaptation strategies. This
implies a strong, deeply rooted social and cultural structure that provides the
necessary conditions for collective change and the social coherence that can be
achieved between them for the defense of their territories, their families, and
their lands.
The adaptive capacity of communities depends on many factors from the
availability of natural resources to access to other activities and markets.
Economic, social, and cultural changes are likely to have a similar or greater
effect on the environment and society than climate change. The volume of
traditional knowledge available contributes to this capacity, such as the use of
local herbalism to counteract tropical diseases and other effects of climate
change, although the mere contribution of knowledge cannot be considered a
complete adaptation strategy. Although traditional knowledge does not always
have the solution, it does provide elements that can be included in the adaptation
strategies. When designing the adaptation measures for an area, one must
consider local knowledge because local people are the ones who accept or do not
accept these mitigation measures and implement them. If adaptation measures
are designed against their beliefs and cultures, implementing them will face
obstacles. Local knowledge must be complemented with scientific knowledge
and supported by a legal and political framework that facilitates the full
development of such strategies by integrating the empirical knowledge of
communities (Lara & Vides-Almonacid, 2014).
Adaptation Based on Forest Management
About 350 million of the world’s poorest people rely on forests directly for their
survival. The value of forests in the provision of ecosystem services to mankind
is undoubtedly high. Forest management and protection are important not only
because forests are vulnerable to climate change, but also because their good
management and health restoration can reduce the vulnerability of society.
Maintaining the ecological integrity of forests to continue to provide ecosystem
services to society is one of the foundations of ecosystem-based adaptation
approach; the threat of their disappearance, fragmentation, and degradation
represents a direct threat to the survival of society. Current forest regimes are
undergoing considerable change, especially in tropical countries. In some
countries, the tendency is to give back the forests to indigenous, rural, and local
communities, or at least to make them direct participants in their management
and benefit sharing. Adaptation strategies such as the UN Redundant
Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reduction and Reduction Mechanism (REDD) in its
first version, REDD + (protection of natural forests) and REDD ++ seek to
recreate agricultural systems as if they were tropical ecosystems and have at one
time been established as panaceas for achieving climate change mitigation and
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The criteria considered as most relevant to rank and evaluate the adaptation measures under the
different adaptation frameworks are presented in Table 9 below.

adaptation goals. The central assumption of this adaptation approach is the link
between the sustainable management of timber and non-timber resources and the
provision of forest ecosystem services to society (especially to communities
most vulnerable to climate change). If forests fail to adapt, they will not be able
to maintain their ecological integrity and proper functioning, which will result in
a progressive degradation (or suppression) of their ecosystem services, reducing
the planet’s adaptive capacity by reducing its capacity to absorb carbon dioxide.
This is the second type of link between forests and adaptation, given the role
forests play in maintaining and increasing the resilience of local communities
and society in general. This approach is underpinned by different international
agreements and existing or pilot mechanisms, such as voluntary forest
certification (FSC), commercialization of sustainable products (FLEG-T), and
climate change mitigation (the aforementioned REDD +).

Integral Adaptation
Each of the approaches presented has particular advantages and generates
strategies that operate on different timescales and geographic scales, involving
different actors and management tools, and protecting different resources. The
most important thing is taking into account the complexity of the interaction of
climatic and climate factors to understand the level of complexity that adaptive
responses to the effects of climate change need. No approach to adaptation is
absolute, and no measure is completely sufficient, but in the end each approach,
each measure, and each goal achieved has a cumulative effect on the success of
adaptation. What is sought in the end is a comprehensive perspective of the
threats posed by climate change in the framework of anthropogenic activities to
generate a series of measures that results in a comprehensive response to the
needs of the protection of the environment and anthropogenic needs.
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Table 9
Criteria to be Used in Ranking, Evaluating, and Selecting First- Tier Adaptation Measures
The group of criteria to be used in ranking adaptation measures:
(A) Criteria identified from project objectives
(A.1) Increase social resilience
(A.2) Increase ecological resilience
(A.3) Increase economic resilience
(B) Criteria identified from the methodology adaptation based in ecosystems (ABE)
(B.1) Regional impact
(B.2) Feasibility
(B.3) Institutional leverage
(B.4) Replicability
(B.5) Ability to monitor
(C) Criteria identified from the methodology of community-based adaptation(CBA)
(C.1) Gender focus
(C.2) Focus on particularly vulnerable groups
(C.3) Applicability and participation of communities
(D) Criteria identified from objectives, mission, and programs of INECC and the
consortium:
(D.1) Scientific principles accepted by the local scientific community
(D.2) Measures respond to needs of the local population
(D.3) Measures meet regional expectations
(D.4) Robustness: capacity of response of the adaptation measures against
uncertainty and future climate change
(D.5) Social and environmental justice: adaptation measures focus on
problems affecting the ecosystems and the most vulnerable local communities
(D.6) Adaptation measures capacity for creating tangible benefits in the short,
long, and medium-term
(D.7) Adaptation measures consistent with the “no-regret” or “low-regret”
(D.8) Sustainability of the adaptation measure and positive cost/benefit ratio
(D.9) Degree of feasibility of implementation, considering local resources
(D.10) Degree of interest and involvement of communities in the measures
(D.11) Possibility of evaluation and monitoring of the effects of the
adaptation measure on the environment and on the main socio-economic
factors affecting local communities.

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This table of relevant criteria was further refined by the international consortium using
expert judgment and principles of multi-criteria analysis. The final selection of criteria to be used
for the selection and evaluation of the top ten adaptation measures are shown in Table 10.
Table 10
Criteria to be Used for the Selection and Evaluation of the Adaptation Measures
Criteria for the selection of the top ten adaptation measures
1. Increases social resilience
2. Increases ecological resilience
3. Increases economic resilience
4. Has regional impact
5. Has feasibility
6. Has institutional leverage
7. Has replicability
8. Has the possibility of monitoring
9. Focuses on gender
10. Focuses on particularly vulnerable groups
11. Applicable to communities and degree of participation of
communities (realization and maintenance)
12. Has local scientific acceptance
13. Responds to direct and immediate local needs
14. Meets regional expectations
15. Robust adaptive capacity: effectively responds to uncertainty
and future changes
16. Has Socio-environmental effects
17. Focuses on key socio-environmental (vulnerability) issues
18. Creates tangible benefits in the short and medium term
19. Without regret and without maladaptive actions
20. Compatible with local development models
21. Cost/benefit ratio is high

After evaluating the full inventory of adaptation measures compiled during the World
Bank's project, the list was reduced to the top ten adaptation measures. This list was presented in
a public workshop where users had the right to vote for the preferred top five adaptation
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 98
measures according to their own perspectives. The final five adaptation measures selected by the
communities for immediate implementation in the Carmen-Pajonal-Machona lagoon system are
shown in Figure 9.

Figure 9. Adaptation measures selected for immediate implementation.

1) Micro-credits to strengthen climate change related
sustainable socio-economic activities
2) Solid waste management plan based on the needs of
local communities
3) Mangrove management plan with innovative strategies
for restoration, rehabilitation, stabilization strategies like bio-
fences and landwards migration strategies
4) Plan for sustainable management of fisheries and
aquaculture ranging from ocean to fresh water species
5) Modification of farming practices to achieve resilience to
climate change through agroforestry.
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Chapter 4: Expanding the Results of the Carmen-Pajonal-Machona Vulnerability Analysis
Historically, climate risk assessments have been developed according to two main
perspectives: (a) top-down and (b) bottom-up approaches. The previous chapter explained the
methodological framework and the results of the World Bank sponsored study (a top-down
model). This chapter will explain the limitations of that study and develop a more comprehensive
and robust analysis by introducing further considerations more typical of a bottom-up approach.
With the results of this hybrid analysis I will then create a second set of adaptation measures to
supplement the results of the first study. Significant impacts were left un-addressed by the first-
tier adaptation measures due to the scope of the project focusing mainly in low cost adaptation
measures that could be easily implemented as a first line of adaptation. However, some
pragmatic concerns expressed by decision-makers during the process of adaptation measures
implementation have not being addressed under the original study. In this supplementary
analysis, in a bottom -up approach, we will try to address the concerns expressed by the decision
makers as a central part of our analysis. This chapter identifies some of the more important
questions decision-makers are asking in response to the more pressing issues about the system's
vulnerability that still remains unaddressed after the implementation of the first tier adaptation
measures and by the cost and efficiency questions raised during the implementation process.
Hybrid vulnerability assessment models can provide a better basis for robust and flexible
adaptation policies and to provide a more comprehensive decision support framework to aid the
implementation of a wider range of adaptation measures responding to a larger spectrum of
climate change possible impacts. In this chapter, the first and second tier adaptation measures are
integrated in a dynamic adaptive approach where the consequences of implementing one or more
adaptation actions may modify the need or the timing for the implementation of other adaptation
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 100
measures. In this chapter, adaptation measures are organized in bundles of adaptation actions
related to the achievement of a particular resiliency objective, for example strategies to stabilize
the sandbar, strategies to increase social resiliency in the communities, strategies to increase
resiliency of an specific sector of the economy and more. A map for possible sequences or
pathways of adaptation to manage the sandbar is presented, and one critical adaptation pathway
is presented as the best possible implementation path, and is presented in context for adaptation
implementation decisions, as time based or event based strategies.
Limitations of the World Bank's Study
1. Limited Scope. (a) The World Bank's study is a top-down risk model (narrow in
scope) only addressing four climate scenarios and (b) one policy objective: to
increase the stability of the system and improve its ecological, social, and economic
resilience. (c)The study is also limited in its contractual scope, to create low-cost
adaptation measures.
2. Because the study is limited in scope to low-cost adaptation measures it leaves
unaddressed important vulnerability hot spots. A prospective analysis of impacts and
vulnerabilities indicates the need for a larger set of management or adaptation
strategies that may be more efficient in order to delay, ameliorate, mitigate, or avoid
the potential effects of climate change and SLR over the system.
3. The study concludes with a set of specific adaptation measures but proposes no
framework for its implementation. Leaves out important considerations for decision-
makers. As a result of the first vulnerability study, decision-makers were left with an
inventory of 100 or more feasible adaptation measures and a plan for the
establishment of the top 10. They were left with the need for an overarching frame to
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 101
coordinate the hundreds of adaptation actions to be implemented. They needed to
know how much would be needed in resources and time to implement the
measurements, when to start which action, how many actions should be implemented
simultaneously, what the cost of implementing one measure would be, if there would
be any savings with or advantages to implementing several of them simultaneously or
sequentially, and whether they should be implemented on a large scale or at different
small locations to create synergies and make optimal use of their resources as they
become available. Decision-makers need to know if some of these adaptation actions
would divert resources from other more significant adaptation efforts or if they would
create dead-end policies. If conditions change, when would decision-makers have to
shift priorities and transition to a new hierarchy of adaptation actions?
4. The study does not considers the future effects of implementing adaptation policies
neither leaves room for incorporation of future changes in policy perspectives and
user preferences. Future scenarios should consider not only adaptation options but
also changes in adaptation policies after the needs or the preferences of local
communities change. For example, changes in main policies regulating coastal land
use and environmental assets in the coastal zone: protect, accommodate, or retreat.
To further the results of the first vulnerability study and to expand its limitations in scope,
the present dissertation proposes the use of the following methodology:
a) To address the concerns of elected officials and professional decision makers left
unattended by the limitations of the top down study's scope, incorporate the
vulnerability aspects typically covered by a bottom up vulnerability assessment and
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 102
construct a hybrid approach to vulnerability assessment that will be more robust and
will protect the system from a wider spectrum of future vulnerabilities.
b) Identify possible sources of funding to address the limitation on scope to low cost
adaptation measures.
c) Build up a supplementary set of adaptation measures addressing the wider spectrum
of vulnerability resulting from the hybrid model approach.
d) Address the lack of an implementation plan and the incorporation of future
perspectives and changes in policies by using adaptation pathways maps and
dynamically adaptive planning as a first step of decision making.
e) Use tipping points, turning points, triggers and thresholds to implement changes in
adaptation measures instead of static planning horizons and prescriptive climate
change scenarios when building plans and adaptation pathways.
Use adaptive planning iteratively to incorporate new information as it becomes available
and respond with changes in adaptation policies, measures or strategies incorporating more than
one policy objective as necessary.

The Need for Hybrid Models: Bottom-up and Top-Down Approaches
The World Bank study of the CPM lagoon system by the international consortium ended
with the selection of adaptation measures. It followed a typical top-down climate risk assessment
methods and included analysis of present conditions and four climate scenarios. The strengths of
this method are that it permits the incorporation of large amounts of information attained through
well-accepted qualitative and quantitative methodologies, numerical models, and well-
established paradigms. This approach is the most widely applied because it seems to provide
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 103
credible results, consists of a relatively straightforward sequence of steps using numerical
models already regarded as credible for the environmental sciences, and uses information that
can be quantifiable in most of the steps. The analysis departs from climate change scenarios
recommended for analysis by the IPCC to assess future climate change impacts, to prepare
adaptation strategies in response to those impacts using risk management theory, and to
incorporate principles of good practice, sustainability, and resiliency within the criteria used for
the ranking and selection of the adaptation measures to be implemented. This process has been
carefully designed to avoid controversy and increase acceptability of the results among users,
each step of the process consist in well establish scientific methodology, numerical models to
calculate winds, tides, circulation, erosion, mangroves distribution, etc. However, important
considerations have been omitted in an effort to avoid controversy, and avoid uncertainty,
therefore; some important questions for decision makers are still unanswered.
This dissertation proposes methodology that expands the advantages of the traditional
top-down risk assessment approach, with key components of a bottom-up risk assessment
approach to address some of the most pressing questions faced by the decision makers still
unanswered. This dissertation proposes a hybrid methodology combining the strength of both
methods to achieve a more robust and encompassing approach while circumventing
“uncertainty,” the main limitation of the hybrid approach. Figure 10 provides an overview of the
structure of a hybrid model, combining top- down and bottom up approaches.

COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 104

Figure 10. Pictured are examples of top-down and bottom- up approaches. (Source:
https://climate-exchange.org/2014/02/24/390)
Climate risk assessment models provide the factual basis for adaptation policy making.
Climate risk assessments are developed according to two main perspectives: (a) top-down
methods (also known as “scenario-led”) and (b) bottom-up methods (also known as
vulnerability-led). The top-down methods involve first downscaling global climate projections
from scenarios provided by the IPCC. The local scenarios downscaled from global models and
adapted to reflect local conditions are then fed into impacts models to estimate the effects of
climate change in a local area. Then adaptation measures are created to maximize any benefits or
counter anticipated risks from climate change on the local scale. The term top-down is used
because information is cascaded from one step to the next in calculating possible effects; this
process is repeated a number of times for the number of emission scenarios defined by the scope
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 105
of the study. The process of creating local climate models and downscaling and projecting
impacts at each stage results in a series of transient scenarios (temporal scenarios based in
climate change projections at a specific time forming a time series) for the adaptation measures
created. Although this is the most widely represented approach in current adaptation practice, as
evidenced by the reviews and assessments of the IPCC, there are very few tangible examples of
anticipatory or planned adaptation decisions arising from this route (Wilby et al, 2010). This is
because the vast majority of climate adaptation studies stop after the selection of initial
adaptation measures, at the first impact assessment stage, to avoid dealing with the high levels of
controversy and uncertainty that arise when the analysis is expanded with supplementary
questions from practitioners, decision makers, and supporters of the bottom-up approach.
The bottom-up approach to coastal adaptation planning arises from the point of view of
preparing for the worst case scenario, beginning with the study of the largest vulnerabilities of
the system and reinforcing the system at the critical vulnerability hotspots. Because this approach
is based in one disaster scenario’s occurring at some point in the future, there is not enough
information to defend decisions with regard to what is to be protected first, and what is the
optimal use of public resources, e. g. to protect upfront one building against the worst case
scenario or to distribute the limited funding to protect five buildings from the less than extreme
conditions that may or may not happen over the life of the structures and to repair the damages if
such a scenario arises. Bottom-up risk assessment approaches focus on examining the adaptive
capacity of the current socio-ecologic system and create adaptation strategies to avoid suffering
the worst damage in the future. The term bottom-up is used because the analysis begins with the
factors and conditions that enable successful coping with climate-related threats at the level of
individuals, households, and communities, and these lower-level experiences inform the
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 106
adaptation planning and policy-making bottom-up approaches to increase the robustness of the
planning process by thinking in broader terms and exploring possible future scenarios better than
specific climate change scenarios that may never happen. Bottom-up approaches are considered
salient by the decision makers because they begin the analysis by addressing the most frequently
asked policy questions, such as:
• What is likely to change in the environment?
• What are the first issues that the community will face as a result of climate change?
• What are the main impacts to resources and population?
• When can we expect this to happen?
• How can we slow the process?
• What are the game changers in the socio-economic or political arenas?
• What may change the rules or assumptions of a current project making adaptation
measures ineffective or planning decisions invalid?
• When is policy change imminent, and when do contingencies need to be implemented?
• How urgent is it to implement a specific measure?
• How do we create more synergy by simultaneous implementation of different initiatives
or by implementation of one initiative across our area of jurisdiction?
• In what order should the adaptation measures be implemented?
• At what moment in time does a strategy become inadequate?
• What other adaptation options could be implemented if a strategy must be adapted or
replaced?
• What events can cause a major change or a tipping point affecting the whole system or
making the current adaptation practices fail?
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• How can we prepare for that?
• How do we measure the performance of adaptation strategies?
• How do we account for cumulative adaptation impacts?
• How do we incorporate the positive effect of the current adaptation efforts into the
equation?
• How do we implement a change in policy?
The hypothetical responses to these questions come from what other communities have
experienced and then how they have responded to disasters. These responses focus on the need to
avoid the known undesired effects if such events come again. Therefore, the views and
perspectives of local communities and future societies become more relevant in the analysis, and
incorporating the preferences of future generations exacerbates the uncertainty of
implementation and approval of current adaptation plans by future generations that may have a
different range of future perspectives.
Future perspective scenario considerations should at least include three prevailing
perspectives in response to risk (Offermans et al., 2011). For this, (a) the individualist’s
perspective, as someone who believes in the power of market forces to regulate society, is that if
climate change occurs, then the free market and technology will provide solutions; (b) the
hierarchist’s perspective, as someone who believes in the possibility of controlling nature and the
behavior of people, is that climate change is serious but controllable; and (c) the egalitarian’s
perspective, as someone who believes in natural forces, creativity, equity, and chaos, is that
climate change gets out of hand and there is not too much to do (Offermans et al., 2011). In order
to reduce the uncertainty of future acceptance, at least these three main perspectives should be
considered.
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Another important consideration left out of the analysis in the top-down approach is the
incorporation of future possible policy perspectives. Future perspective scenarios should
consider adaptation options related to establishing or changing policy according to the
preferences and values of future decision makers. For example, the three main policies regulating
land use, allocation of environmental assets, and allocation of infrastructure in the coastal zone:
it can evolve from "Protect", to "Accommodate", "Partial Retreat", "Avoid", or to "Accept, and
Permanently Retreat".
Currently, for the purpose of robust policy making, bottom-up approaches focusing on
vulnerability and risk management are preferred by decision makers because they focus on a
central scenario and account for climate change by adding robustness (flexibility) to the future
responses. However, critics of this approach complain about the lengthy time needed to perform
a risk assessment for only one scenario and that the study of the full socio-ecological system is
too complex for a proper model representation and comparison among all the underrepresented
drivers acting simultaneously over the system. It has been concluded, for example, that
“vulnerability assessment often promises more certainty and more useful results, than it can
deliver” (Wilby et al., 2010, p 411).This vulnerability approach has also been criticized for its
heavy reliance on expert judgment; it is also said to hinder its applicability, replicability, and
thus credibility.
The main disadvantage of top-down approaches is their reliability on climate change
scenarios, given that those scenarios are updated every five years and the whole assessment
process needs to be run again, even when sometimes the changes in the climate scenarios (global
models) are not significant at the level of the assessment (regional or local level); nor are they
relevant for the scope of the specific task at hand because the new scenarios do not bring new
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 109
relevant information for specific local planning considerations by the policy makers following
local planning priorities. To avoid this hurdle, the new era of hybrid models uses a central
scenario and makes the analysis robust to uncertainty by including an envelope of uncertainty
with a full spectrum of possible scenarios that include the scenarios prescribed by the ICCP
under high- and low-emission conditions.
Adaptation science is moving toward hybrid models capable of incorporating the
advantages of the top-down and bottom-up assessments complementary in order to circumvent
the innate limitations of each model. The hybrid approach models or meta-models are born from
the new perspective that bottom-up and top-down assessments can be used as complementary
techniques and that the two models are not mutually exclusive. Meta-models improve the process
of incorporating the scientific recommendations from both types of risk assessments into robust
policy making. Although both approaches are included in the new generation of meta-models,
strong emphasis continues to be made on the vulnerability-based approach because traditionally
policy and decision makers have considered this approach more useful in guiding decision-
making. Results after vulnerability models are better received by decision makers and perceived
to be more salient by the users because general recommendations after vulnerability-based
models tend to be easier to implement.
Figure 11 illustrates the conceptual framework of such a hybrid model of risk assessment
using a central scenario. The stop sign represents the place where the typical and more widely
applied top-down risk assessment studies usually stop to avoid the noted uncertainty.

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Figure 11. The figure shows the conceptual framework for a scenario-neutral approach (adapted
from Wilby et al. 2010).

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Bottom-up Approach, Decision-Makers’ Policy Questions: Exploring Future Scenarios
from the Anthropogenic Point of View
There is a set of practical and empirical questions always present on the minds of the
decision makers when dealing with climate change. The responses to those questions are not
always addressed by top down vulnerability models. The bottom up vulnerability and risk
assessment models usually address those specific questions as a first priority as those questions
are generally empirical and come from what other communities have experienced. Communities
learn from one another how they have responded to disasters. These responses focus on the need
to avoid the known undesired effects if such events happen again. The views and perspectives of
local communities and their future generations become more relevant in the analysis and
exacerbate the uncertainty of the decision-making with considerations of fairness not only for the
present but also the future. Therefore, we can use the results of the first vulnerability study for
the worst-case scenario (permanent breakage of the sandbar and the total loss of the lagoon
environment) and create a second set of adaptation measures in response.
What would be the worst-case scenario, and how can we be prepared for it? Under the
high-emissions scenario, by the year 2100, the sandbar protecting the lagoon permanently
erodes, and the lagoon becomes a bay. Under this scenario, hundreds if not thousands of hectares
of mangrove will be lost to erosion and decomposition when the trees become inundated for
longer inundation periods. This becomes a catastrophic disaster because the wetlands of the Gulf
of Mexico have been recognized by multiple areas of science due to their environmental
significance and their relevance as an international bio-corridor, sustaining great biodiversity and
absorbing large amounts of carbon, therefore reducing global warming and mitigating the future
effects of climate change. Also under this scenario, the local economy (based on sweet and
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brackish water aquaculture) will no longer be viable. Additionally, in this scenario several local
communities will be displaced due to the erosion of their land, the salinization of their crops, and
the loss of drinking water and infrastructure.
To respond to this scenario, we could prepare a management plan that bolsters the natural
adaptive capacity of the mangroves to migrate inland in response to SLR to survive. We can
prepare management plans and put in place adaptation plans to diversify the economy and make
it more resilient by being ready to transition to a marine environment aquaculture whenever
required. We can also prepare a plan to relocate the local communities living in places that are
predicted to be flooded by the year 2100.
The next policy questions will be how much the relocation, transition, or abandonment
of structures is going to cost, what special resources are needed to accomplish it, and how much
time there is to implement those solutions. Are these the best solutions? How much money, time,
and resources could be wasted if the worst-case scenario doesn’t come true? To address the
issues of cost, we have to have a well-defined plan of action and allocate the budget for it.
However, there are two major components to that approach. One is that the worst-case scenario
usually generates impacts of magnitude larger than the local community's capacity to respond.
The second is that even if the community has the substantial amount of funding necessary to
respond and adapt, it is hard to justify today’s massive allocation of tax dollars in response to
something that may or may not happen in the future. Constituents usually will not approve
projects without a clear advantageous cost-benefit ratio.
There are several alternatives to resolve this issue. If the full funding is available, we can
proceed to justify the cost of adaptation with a simple already-established approximation of cost
and benefits created by the environmental services provided by a hectare of wetland per year as
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described by other authors. When the funding is not fully available, we can plan adaptation
according to the projected carbon trade funds expected on annual basis. We can also plan in a
modular way whereby small projects can add up to a bigger solution as funding becomes
available, and different adaptation measures can be scaled up or combined in response to
progressively large climate change impacts. Figure 12 provides an example of different types of
adaptation measures that may be used as a continuum increasing and combining them as
conditions progress.

Figure 12. A continuum of adaptation measures from soft and low impact (green) to hard
structures, increasing and combining as conditions progress. Source:
https://www.nps.gov/subjects/climatechange/upload/CASH_FINAL_Document_111016.pdf
Modular bundles of adaptation measures can be created to increase the level of necessary
response to the climate change impacts better than simply allocating the resources upfront based
on traditionally set planning scenarios. We can achieve that by designing a system of flags
signaling significant impacts over time and responding to those changes.
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Instead of making one big plan, the planning process consists of a series of small plans
within a larger modifiable framework. Each adaptation plan (module) can have a particular
policy objective. For example, one bundle of adaptation measures could have the objective to
delay the permanent breakage of the sandbar, and another bundle could be designed to maximize
the inland displacement of the wetlands before the permanent breakage of the sandbar occurs.
Combining the results of both bundles, retaining the sandbar in place for a longer period of time
and accelerating the inland migration, allows a larger number of mangroves to move inland,
saving more hectares of wetlands before the breakage of the sandbar causes permanent
inundation of those areas of the mangrove causing its death.
The following sections will explain the process of creating an adaptation plan with the
objective of adding resiliency to the Carmen-Pajonal-Machona lacunae system by retaining the
sandbar in place for the longest period of time permissible by the severity of natural
circumstances and the availability of resources to delay the sandbar breakage and to accelerate
the inland migration and the maturity of the current wetlands and existing mangroves, in order to
allow more mangroves to move inland and naturally resist the upcoming natural conditions of
erosion, salinity and longer periods of inundation.
Creating a Hybrid Vulnerability Assessment for the Carmen-Pajonal-Machona Lacunae
System
In this section, I will summarize the results of the top-down vulnerability assessment, and
highlight the identified vulnerabilities that were not addressed by the first tier of proposed
adaptation measures. Subsequently, I will summarize the vulnerability yet unaddressed and
weight that vulnerability against the decision makers concerns and policy questions discussed in
the previous sections. The vulnerabilities of the system revealed by this comprehensive approach
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will be compiled and prioritized according to decision makers concerns and supplementary
adaptation measures will be suggested to address the more serious issues.
Let's begin by discussing the Results from the top-down vulnerability assessment and
first tier adaptation measures for the Carmen-Pajonal-Machona Lacunae System. The study
reported vulnerability at present conditions, and vulnerability at future conditions. The analysis
of the system's present vulnerabilities is summarized in Table 11 where each vulnerability is
associated with its main drivers and the forces causing the impacts.
Table 11
Main Vulnerability Variables, Forces, and Drivers for CPM Under Current Conditions
Vulnerability Forces Drivers
Stability of the
sandbar
Coastline erosion
Dune erosion
Land and road deterioration
SLR, extreme events
Flooding
Risk of bar breakdown in extreme
events
SLR, extreme events
High vulnerability of roads, power
distribution network and coastal
communities
SLR, extreme events
Hydrodynamics of
the lagoon system
High vulnerability to floods in areas
surrounding lagoon
SLR, extreme events
High vulnerability subsidence and
SLR (eustatic)
SLR, extreme events, anthropogenic
activities, oil extraction
High values of time water residence
on the lagoon system’s hinterland
prone to low oxygen conditions
SLR, deposition after extreme events,
temperature
Pollution of the
lagoon system
Lack of wastewater treatment Anthropogenic
Microbiological contamination of the
lagoon (fecal coliforms) and
potential risk to human health due to
consumption of raw oysters
Anthropogenic
State of the
mangrove
Eradication of buttonwood mangrove Anthropogenic
Extreme loss of mangrove coverage
and fragmentation of habitat in 1999–
2015; illegal logging and shore
erosion
Anthropogenic
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Vulnerability Forces Drivers
Unbalanced mangrove populations
due to the forest’s being young (thin
trees)
Anthropogenic
Sub-aquatic vegetation not found Unknown
Soil degradation
Salinization of shallower aquifers and
agricultural land
SLR
Local soil contamination due to
hydrocarbon spills
Anthropogenic
Infrastructure
Disruption of road network systems
and water and power grids caused by
extreme events such as storms and
floods
SLR, extreme events
Erosion of the sandbar and the road
placed at the top
SLR, extreme events
Lack of maintenance of the
distribution network
Anthropogenic
Socio-cultural and
economic conditions
High vulnerability of local
communities to climate variability
and in particular to extreme events
(such as storms and floods)
SLR, extreme events
Fishing and agriculture are heavily
dependent on climatic conditions
directly or indirectly (e.g.,
salinization of soil, rise of
temperature, overexploitation of
fisheries)
SLR, extreme events, temperature,
anthropogenic
Limited access to safe, good-quality
drinking water and general lack of
basic infrastructure
SLR, anthropogenic
Lack of community’s organizational
capacity
Anthropogenic
Poverty; gender inequality; lack of
education, employment, and personal
development opportunities
Anthropogenic

The analysis of present vulnerability served as a baseline to assess future vulnerability on
the system due to natural or anthropogenic causes related to potential impacts of climate change
and foreseen anthropogenic activities under specific climate change scenarios. The main changes
identified after running the four future climate scenarios occurred in atmospheric temperature,
the distribution of rainfall, and sea level rise (that is further aggravated by land subsidence on the
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area). Adaptation measures were suggested to address those impacts, but many were discarded
by the scope of the project (low cost adaptation measures) and only low-cost, low impact
adaptation measures were selected as first-tier adaptation measures, independently of the
magnitude of future impacts left unaddressed. This was done in purpose to expedite the initiation
of the adaptation process in the area with available resources, knowing that further studies and
further funding would be necessary to continue the process.
The future vulnerability of the system was analyzed by applying future climate change
scenarios over the present conditions and present vulnerability of the system through a DPSIR
analysis. When a present vulnerability worsens over time due to future conditions, it is identified
as a vulnerability hot spot and becomes first priority to address in the adaptation process. Table
12 summarizes the vulnerability hot spots identified for CPM after the DPSIR analysis.
The first tier adaptation measures designed in response to the top down vulnerability
analysis are: (a) microcredits to strengthen climate change–dependent economic activities; (b)
community-based solid waste management plans; (c) mangrove management plan with
innovative strategies for mangrove restoration and rehabilitation for exploitation and inclusion
of economic activities in selected areas, bio-fences, and other natural defense methods as
mangrove inland migration strategies; (d) management plan for making fisheries and aquaculture
climate change–resistant; (e) agroforestry, modification of agricultural and farming practices to
make crops climate change–resistant, to help maintain the local communities’ health against
climate change–related diseases and to provide food security.
Table 12 shows the vulnerability hot spots addressed by the first-tier adaptation measures
grayed out.

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Table 12
Vulnerability Hotspots for the CPM Lacunae System Unaddressed After Implementation of the
First-Tier Adaptation Measures
Vulnerability
Hotspot
Key Issues Future Consequences Main Driver
Stability of
sandbar
Coastline
erosion, dune
erosion, and
deterioration
SLR, increased wave
energy over dunes and
beach face,
beach erosion, increased
instability of protective
sandbar
SLR
Flooding and
risk of sandbar
breakdown in
extreme events,
expected rise in
frequency and
intensity of
extreme events
Flood vulnerability on
some areas of sandbar
could weaken the dune
system and allow ocean
water to cross lagoons
(overtopping) and flood
certain areas of the bar,
affecting residential
areas and roads;
increase in frequency
and intensity of extreme
events (Nortes and
hurricanes), generating
higher energy waves,
tides, storm surges, and
rain amounts, which
flood and erode the area
SLR
Extreme events
High
vulnerability of
infrastructure
(roads, power
distribution
network) and
coastal
communities
The above
vulnerabilities
cumulatively increase
the instability and risk
of breakage of sandbar,
in particular during
extreme events
SLR
Extreme events
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Vulnerability
Hotspot
Key Issues Future Consequences Main Driver
Hydrodynamics
of lagoon
system and
water quality
issues
High
vulnerability to
floods in areas
surrounding
lagoon system
Increased risk of
flooding of surrounding
areas of lagoon system
by increasing sea level
and increase in extreme
events (wind and rain)
SLR
Extreme events
High
subsidence rate,
increased
exposure to sea
level rise
(eustatism) and
salt water
intrusion
Saline intrusion
intensifies by 2100,
increase of sea level and
morphological changes
in the sandbar (opening
new mouth) transform
the lagoon system to
saline environment
similar to a bay
SLR
Extreme events
Anthropogenic oil
extraction
Extreme water
residence
values for the
lagoon system’s
hinterland
making it prone
to low-oxygen
conditions
Increase in degree of
confinement of water
inside lagoon by year
2030; major sediment
deposition, causes
decrease in volume of
water exchanged in the
CPM lagoons, in turn
resulting in increased
risk of anoxia
SLR
Extreme events
Temperature rise
Water quality
issues due to
anthropogenic
pollutants
Pollution of CPM
lagoon system due to
poor solid residue
management issues;
organic matter due to
aquaculture and
inorganic pollutants as a
byproduct of farming
Anthropogenic
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Vulnerability
Hotspot
Key Issues Future Consequences Main Driver
State of
mangrove
ecosystem
General decline
in the “health”
of the mangrove
ecosystem.
Presence of three
mangrove species: black
or Prieto, red, and
white, but no longer
buttonwood, although
they were reported in
historical documents;
currently mangrove
populations not
balanced due to forest
being young, with
mostly thin trees,
making it fragile and
highly vulnerable
SLR
Anthropogenic

Illegal
mangrove
logging

Extreme loss of
mangrove coverage and
fragmentation of habitat
from 1999–2015 due to
changes in land use
(increasing urban uses,
areas for cultivation and
animal husbandry), as
well as illegal logging
and erosion of shores
Anthropogenic
Stale water
captured among
trees present a
health hazard
Stale water produced by
frequent flooding and
lack of appropriate
drainage results in
perfect environment for
procreation of vectors
transmitting tropical
illnesses to local
population
Temperature rise
Anthropogenic

COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 121
Vulnerability
Hotspot
Key Issues Future Consequences Main Driver
Sub-aquatic
vegetation not
found
Mangrove needs to
migrate inland faster
than sea level rise to
survive; time of
inundation and exposure
to salinity are tipping
points for mangrove
population
Unknown
Soil degradation
Salinization of
shallower
aquifers and
agricultural
land
Increased salinization of
underground reserves of
fresh water because of
rising saline intrusion
SLR

Local
contamination
of soil due to
accidental
hydrocarbon
spills
Permanent damage to
ecosystem due to
accidental hydrocarbon
spills
Anthropogenic
Loss of
agricultural
land and
mangrove
coverage
Conflicts over future
land use due to
increased demand for
fertile, unpolluted soil
usable for
anthropogenic activities
Anthropogenic
Infrastructure
Disruption of
road network
systems and
water and
power grids
caused by
extreme events
such as storms
and floods
Increase in level of
damage to built
environment, including
roads, caused by
extreme floods
SLR
Extreme events
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Vulnerability
Hotspot
Key Issues Future Consequences Main Driver
Lack of
maintenance of
distribution
network
Increase in level of
damage to electricity
infrastructure,
interrupting service
during and after
extreme floods
Extreme events
Socio-cultural
and economic
conditions
High
vulnerability of
local
communities to
climate
variability and
in particular to
extreme events
(such as storms
and floods)
Economies of
communities
(agriculture, fisheries,
and livestock)
particularly vulnerable
to climate variability;
expected climate change
(and its impacts) will
increase problems that
already affect CPM
lagoon system

SLR
Extreme events
Temperature increase
Fishing and
agriculture
heavily
dependent on
climatic
conditions and
have been
already affected
directly or
indirectly; for
example, by
salinization of
soil,
temperature
rise, and
overexploitation
of fisheries
Economies of
communities
(agriculture, fisheries,
and livestock)
particularly vulnerable
to climate variability;
expected climate change
(and its impacts) will
increase problems that
already affect CPM
lagoon system
SLR (sandbar
instability)
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 123
Vulnerability
Hotspot
Key Issues Future Consequences Main Driver
Limited access
to safe, good-
quality drinking
water, and
general lack of
basic
infrastructure
Fresh water scarcity;
increased drinking
water shortage because
of increased
salinization, impacting
and damaging network
of distribution (in
particular by increased
risk of flood and
increase in extreme
events)
SLR
Anthropogenic

Insufficient
organizational
capacity of both
people in a
community and
among
different
communities
Low-capacity
community response a
cause of current
socioeconomic
vulnerability and can be
increased by climate
change
Anthropogenic
Poverty; gender
inequality; lack
of education,
employment,
and personal
development
opportunities
Vulnerable economy a
cause of current
socioeconomic
vulnerability and can be
increased by climate
change
Anthropogenic

As Table 12 shows, serious vulnerability hot spots remain unaddressed even after the
implementation of the first-tier adaptation strategies. The remaining vulnerabilities identified but
not addressed by the adaptation measures are called differential vulnerabilities and points to four
important topics: (a) the stability of the sandbar; (b) issues of soil degradation; (c) issues of
infrastructure related to effects of major climatic events; and (d) issues related to the
hydrodynamics of the lagoon system and water quality. A subsequent DPSIR analysis is
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 124
performed to understand how this issues are related and what are the combined impacts to
address.
Figure 13 to Figure 17 are the Diagrams of Pressure State and Impact Response (DPSIR)
showing the main impacts expected over the CPM lacunae system resulting from SLR, increase
in atmospheric temperatures, increase in the intensity and frequency of extreme events
(accounting for future rain intensity), and future anthropogenic activities to be addressed still.

COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 125

Productives activities
Human activities
Technological progress ,
innovaction
Opening and clossing of
Lagoon Mouth
Sedimentation
Droughts
D RIVING FORCES P RESSURES I MPACTS
Water quality Water availability
Erosion
Climate and meteorology
(variability and extremes)
Sea level
Temperature
Rain patterns
Exchanges water flows
lagoon/ocean
Water
salinization
Soil salinization Floods
Soil
degradation
Soil fertility
Economic loss
Agricultural production
Quality of agricultural
products
Waste commercial
activities
Water pollution , wells
Practicas
agropecuarias
no sustentables
Unsustainable
fishing
practices
Overexploitation
by grazing
Non rotating
techniques
Deforestation
Inappropriate
use of oyster
shells
Overexploitat
ion of fishery
resources
Use of
insufficient or
excessive
fertilazer
Oil extraction
Human
settlements
Natural
resources
management
Soil pollution
Land use
change
Inappropiate
use of nazas
Human health
Production and quality of
fishery resources
Enviromental degradation
/ biodiversity
Food safety
Prices of agricultural
products
Figure 13. DPSIR diagram for the lagoon mouth opening and closing (system stage) as a driver of impacts and change.
(Adapted from Avendano et al., 2016)
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 126

Rain Wind (north)
Solar energy
Oil Extraction Agriculture
and Livestock
Industrias y
asentamientos urbanos
Oil spill on so
Fertilizers and
pesticides
Leaching of soils and
supply of rivers
Heat flux
Marine water
contributions
Sewage waters
D RIVING F ORCES P RESSURES S TA TES I MPACTS
T oxic substances in
water and sediment
Coliforms
Organic matter and
nutrients
Temperature
Suspended soilids
(Light availabilitie)
Alteration in algal growth and underwater
vegetation
Harmful algal
blooms
Anoxia
Bacterial degradation Human health
(Consumption of
contaminated
fishery products)
Bacterial
contamination of fish
products
T oxiciti to
organisms
Bioaccumula
lagoon organ
Figure 14. DPSIR showing the impacts of contaminated water in the CPM system using water pollutants as a driver of change.
(Adapted from Avendano et al., 2016)
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 127

Elevation of sea
level
Subsidence of the
bar
Sediment supply Climatic ev
and hurricane
Waves and
tides
Human settlements
Erosion of the
bar
Sediment deficit Loss of coastline
Deterioration of
dunes
D RIVING FORCES P RESSURE S TA TES I MPACTS
Rupture of the
sections of the bar
Loss of dunes Sedimentary
imbalance
Loss of vegetation
Floods
Saline intrusio
Vulnerability of
habitants
Accelerated
erosion
Deterioration of
the ecosystem
Bar break
Structural damage
Figure 15. DPSIR showing the impacts on the system using coastal process under future conditions as a driver of change.
(Adapted from Avendano et al., 2016)
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 128

Elevation of the sea
level
Subsidence of the
bar
Sediment supply Weather e
and hurricane
Waves and
tides
Human settlements
Loss of
sediment
Sediment deficit Coastline recoil
Deterioration of
dunes
D RIVING FORCES P RESSURE S TA TES I MPACTS
Imbalance and
erosion of the bar
Imbalance and erosion
of the dunes
Desequilibrio
sedimentario
Loss of vegetation
Floods
Saline
intrusion
Vulnerability of the
people
Accelerated
erosion
Deterioration of
the ecosystem
Bar break Structural da
Figure 16. DPSIR showing the impacts on the system using storms and extreme events under future conditions as a driver of change.
(Adapted from Avendano et al., 2016)
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 129

Rain Wind (north)
Solar energy
Oil extraction Agriculture, livestock
and aquaculture
Urban settlements
Oil spills on s
Fertilizers and
pesticides
Erosion of the edge
of the lagoon system
Heat flux
Sewage water
D RIVING FORCES P RESSURES S TA TES I MPACTS
T oxic substances in
water and sediment
Organic matter and
nutrients
Temperature
Suspended solids
(Light availability)
Alteration in algal growth and epiphytes in
mangrove roots.
Anoxia
Bacterial degradation
Human health:
Consumption of
contaminated fishery
products; emergin
diseases.
Pollution of fishery
products. Reservoir of
insects transmitting
diseases.
T oxicity to
organisms
Bioaccumula
lagoon organ
Mean sea level rise.
Possible loss of
the lagoon system
Trash
Soil degradation and
creation of marshes.
Figure 17. DPSIR showing the impacts on the mangroves using effects of extreme events under future conditions as a driver of
change. (Adapted from Avendano et al., 2016)
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 130
Table 13 summarizes the results of the DPSIR figures for the CPM lagoon, highlighting
the effects of projected SLR, temperature change, future changes in frequency and intensity of
extreme events, as well as future anthropogenic activities over the system.
Table 13
Results of the DPSIR Analysis for the CPM System
Summary of Forces, Pressure, System State, Impacts and System Response under future
climate change
Forces:
Temperature (increase in atmospheric temperature),
Temperature (increase in water temperature),
Precipitation (increase in frequency and intensity of events but not net volume change),
Extreme events (increase in frequency and intensity),
SLR and subsidence.
Pressures:
Increased atmospheric and water temperatures will result in increased SLR.
Increase of SLR will result in waves eroding higher areas of beach and dunes, changes in beach
profile, and redistribution or loss of sediment.
Dune and beach erosion will further weaken sandbars that separate lagoons from the ocean,
allowing saline intrusion, liquefaction, and accumulation of salt water in natural depressions,
degrading soils with salinization.
More frequent and intense extreme events will further accentuate beach and dune erosion.
More frequent and intense precipitation will increase flooding, which will accentuate problems
of erosion, salinization, and damage to infrastructure.
System states:
Sandbar closure,
Sediment deficit,
Sandbar openings,
Dune erosion,
Sandbar rupture,
Coastal retreat.
Impacts:
Sandbar rupture will cause a radical change in a lagoon’s salinity, water quality, circulation, and
sediment redistribution, as well as accelerated dune and bar erosion; coastal retreat will increase
the vulnerability of the lacunae system and the local communities living in the area.
Erosion of sandbars and dunes will cause vegetation losses, deforestation, and further erosion.
Deforestation will result in biodiversity losses and further damage to mangroves.
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 131
Decrement of lacunae system productivity will affect fisheries, agriculture, and aquaculture.
Response:
Sandbars will redistribute sediment to a new balance state.
Sediment redistribution will occur until system reaches new equilibrium.
Deforestation will cause regressions of the distribution of mangrove species.

The DPSIR analysis helps us to visualize how the four vulnerability hotspots—(a)
stability of sandbar (erosion and deposition), (b) hydrodynamics of lagoon system, (c) soil
degradation, and (d) fragile infrastructure—are interrelated and can be expressed as a function
of the sandbar stability.
The sandbar’s closing and opening regulates the water exchange with the ocean and the
beach sediment exchange trough littoral transport. The hydrodynamics of the lagoon and its
water quality fully depends on the status of the sandbar that by opening and closing regulates the
water exchange with the ocean, and the time-period of residence of the water in the system, that
regulates the amount of dissolved oxygen and the salinity levels by slowing the rate of fresh-
water exchange, and the lagoon’s general circulation patterns. The erosion, accretion, breakage
or displacement of the sandbar it also results in damage to the infrastructure located on top of it
and to the biota dependent on the preservation of the current water conditions.
Likewise, the key issues of soil degradation around the lagoon depend on the status of the
sandbar. If the sandbar is eroded or gets weakened, the ocean water commences to infiltrate the
lacunae system, and the underground substrate is contaminated by saline intrusion. If the sandbar
is broken, it also allows ocean water to enter to the lagoon through tidal flux. On the other hand,
when the sandbar is closed, the system gets an excessive influx of riverine water radically
altering the patters of salinity inside the lagoon. Although under current conditions the
superficial soil is polluted by salinization every time the system experiences a major flooding it
is expected that the dynamic of the system will change in the future when the sandbar closes
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 132
permanently. The lagoon will become a sweet water environment when the rivers send their
discharge and water exchange with the ocean no longer exist.
Not only are all of these vulnerabilities related, they also share the same main drivers: (a)
SLR, (b) extreme events, and (c) anthropogenic activities. Therefore, the next part of the analysis
will focus on the stability of the sand bar as regulator of the hydrodynamics of the lagoon
system, soil degradation for erosion, and salt intrusion, as well as the main element responsible
for the extreme deterioration of the infrastructure.
In order to inform decision-makers about realistic costs of adaptation, we have to
quantify the total vulnerability of the system and give a precise account of the vulnerability
already reduced for each adaptation option (or set of adaptation options) previously implemented
or being planned.
To those results I incorporated an extra level of analysis (bottom-up) with a strong focus
on anthropogenic considerations by adding a deeper proportion of social perspective to the
analysis in order to round up and balance the analysis so as to address the major significant
concerns of elected officials and other decision-makers.
A social perspective conceives vulnerability as a socially constructed phenomenon within
the context of particular social, political, and historical structures and economic processes that
influence social systems (individuals, communities, groups, political systems, and legislation,
among others) and that make the system vulnerable in specific ways and for specific reasons.
The result of studying the system’s vulnerability in terms of exposure from an anthropogenic
point of view (social system concerns) is known as social vulnerability or sensitivity, as shown in
Figure 18, which is originally adapted from Nguyen et al. (2016).
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 133

Figure 18. Combination of key components in climate change vulnerability assessment. Source:
Nguyen et al. (2016).
In this second part of the analysis, I focused on the differential vulnerability remaining
for the system (projected climate-change impacts minus the effects of those first-tier adaptation
measures proposed). After highlighting the residual vulnerability of the system, I evaluated how
significant the gaps are. When the residual vulnerability is found to be significant, additional
adaptation measures need to be designed to address it after considering the natural system
adaptive capacity plus the anthropogenic adaptive capacity added by the implementation of the
first-tier adaptation measures and further adaptation measures are suggested to address the more
significant future impacts.

COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 134
Building a Supplementary Set of Adaptation Measures
This section of the study focuses on the identification of a second tier of adaptation
measures addressing the two major vulnerability hot spots in the system. After the analysis in the
previous section, I conclude that the stability of the sandbar and the inland migration of the
mangrove could be considered the two major vulnerability hot spots accounting for the major
impacts on the future of the CPM lacunae system. This section of analysis therefore focuses on a
bundle of adaptation strategies to increase the resiliency of the sandbar and a bundle of
adaptation strategies to help migrate the mangroves inland. On one hand, the mere existence of
the mangroves may generate a very significant source of funding to abate the future impacts of
climate change if a program of payment for environmental services is implemented. This funding
is directly proportional to the total area covered by mangroves and its environmental quality. In
order to preserve or increase this funding in the future, the total area covered by mangroves and
wetlands need to be preserved or enlarge. On the other hand, the DPSIR analysis shown that the
breakage of the sandbar protecting the lagoon may lead to a massive destruction of mangroves.
By designing a bundle of adaptation measures that maintain the sandbar on place for a longer
period of time, we increase the chances of mangrove inland migration success to a higher
ground. However, given the accelerated rate of sea level rise and subsidence on the area, the
possibilities of the mangrove successfully migrating inland to preserve or increase the area of
coverage are still slim. An additional bundle of adaptation measures will be necessary to
accelerate the process of inland migration and the colonization of higher grounds.
For each bundle, I create a set of adaptation measures that may be used sequentially,
simultaneously or combined to increase the efficiency of each strategy, to keep the bar in place
or to accelerate the migration of the mangroves. The adaptation measures are selected and
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 135
evaluated according to their effectiveness in dealing with the type of hazard to be avoided, and
the suitability of the strategies for the land use policies at the time. Once an adaptation measure
has reached its useful limit and is no longer effective in its purpose, it needs to be modified.
Adaptation options do not need to be replaced immediately; to reduce costs, they can be
implemented incrementally in size or duration, or they can be combined to supplement a current
adaptation strategy, avoiding the cost of replacement until reaching the end of their useful life or
when it becomes necessary to progress to the next land use policy. After the second tier of
adaptation measures are designed (bundle 1 and bundle 2), a map of possible pathways of
implementation its created. The pathways map will be regulated by events (triggers, thresholds,
tipping points, and turning points) to create a time-flexible approach.
For the bundle 1, the adaptation strategies to keep the sandbar on place, those pathways
will then be evaluated against the effectiveness of each adaptation measure, the policy objectives
and level of performance of each measure in dealing with present and current conditions to
identify the optimal adaptation pathway. The end result will be a continuum of adaptation
measures regulating the impacts of SLR on the face of the beach (sandbar), the erosion, and the
inundation periods in the inner parts of the lagoon where the mangrove resides.
To simplify the adaptive planning process, the adaptation measures of bundle 2 (to
accelerate the inland migration of the wetlands and their reestablishment in places where they
use to be ) will be integrated as a part of the mangrove management plan designed as one of the
first-tier adaptation measures. For the first tier adaptation strategies, a single calendar of
implementation is formulated. However, the timing for implementation of the first-tier
adaptation measures is regulated and adapted according to the outcome of the adaptation
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 136
measures to keep the sandbar on place due to the interdependence of process, impacts and
vulnerabilities found at system level.
Adaptation measures to increase resiliency of the sandbar.
The coastal stability indicators used to determine the vulnerability of the sandbar in the
original analysis were as follows: (a) status of coastal protection; (b) patterns of erosion and
accretion; (c) beach width and dunes displacement; (d) sediment transport (redistribution and net
loss of sediment); (e) rate of sea level rise and coastal subsidence; (f) coastal flooding
inundation patterns and; (g) extreme events patterns (storms or Nortes) measured by waves,
tides, currents, storm surges, rain, and aftermath immediate coastal erosion. A list of adaptation
measures responding to those impacts was compiled and it is presented bellow in Table 14.
Table 14
Adaptation Measures to Increase the Sandbar Stability
Indicator Parameters Adaptation Measures
Status of coastal
protection
Presence
Absence
Need
Soft measures: Beach nourishment,
sandbags, geo-tubes, and other
removable structures
Hybrid structures: Permeable and
submerged structures
Hard structures: Jetties, seawalls,
breakwaters
Sediment transport
(erosion or accretion)

Beach width
Beach profiles
Bathymetric profiles
Beach nourishment
Soft structures to slow down currents and
cause sediment deposition (bio-fences)
Hard but permeable structures to slow
down currents and cause sediment
deposition
Hard structures to fix coastline
Dunes displacement Dune width
Dune profiles
Topographic surveys
Dune nourishment
Dune stabilization with vegetation
Dune stabilization with hard structures
Sea level rise Sea level Coastline defense
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 137
Wet waterline
Saline water intrusion
Coastline stabilization
Retreat
Coastal subsidence Topographic and
bathymetric surveys
Landfills
Hydraulic fluid reinjection
Flooding Wet waterline
Tides and currents
Planting vegetation to retain extra water
(absorb)
Terracing (slow down)
Floodways (channels to divert)
Levees, lakes, dams, reservoirs (contain)
Retention ponds during times of flood
(hold extra water)
Extreme events Frequency and intensity
of
waves, tides, currents,
storm surges, rain, and
aftermath erosion
Education and behavior change
Evacuation and emergency plans

Those adaptation measures can be combined, selected, or sequenced according to their
efficiency over time, according to their cost /benefits ratio, according to their effectiveness in
dealing with specific local conditions or according to their performance and their capacity to
regulate sediment transport and erosion affecting the stability of the sandbar. The objective of the
bundle, is to increase the adaptive capacity and resiliency of the lagoon through maintaining the
stability of the sandbar as time progresses and conditions worsen. An example of how those
adaptation measures may be escalated is shown in Figure 19 below.
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 138

Figure 19. Progression of possible adaptation measures to maintain the stability of the sandbar
and to avoid SLR impacts throughout time.
Options may also be combined and grouped to add efficiency to the system without the
expense of a change of adaption type, providing the decision-maker an opportunity to gain a
better understanding of what is technically, socially, environmentally, and economically feasible
in identifying boundary conditions, thresholds, and tipping points regulating the system.
Once an adaptation measure has reached its useful life or has reached another limiting
factor and is thus no longer effective in its purpose, it is said to have reached its tipping point,
and the adaptation strategy needs to be modified. This modification can be done in incremental
steps following the same policy direction for as long as the policy remains effective.
Every time an adaptation option reaches its tipping point, a series of actions can be done
in order to extend its useful life and make the current adaptation strategy effective again.
Haasnoot (2012) proposed to identify a series of possible actions, grouped into eight categories:
1. Mitigating options (actions to reduce the likely adverse effects of a plan);
2. Hedging options (actions to spread or reduce the uncertain effects of a plan);
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 2110
Erosion Thousands of (m3 )
"Adaptation Measures to Abate Erosion (Sand Bar
Stability)"
Do Nothing (BAU)
Beach Nourishment
Permeable Structures
Hard structures, Groins, Seawalls
Relocation
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 139
3. Seizing options (actions to seize likely available opportunities);
4. Shaping options (actions to reduce failure or enhance success);
5. Defensive options (actions to preserve the benefits of a strategy and to allow the
strategy to respond to an outside challenge);
6. Corrective options (adjustments to the basic plan, perhaps change of strategy);
7. Capitalizing options (actions to take advantage of opportunities); and
8. Reassessment options (when the analysis and assumptions critical to the plan’s
success have clearly lost validity).
Once all feasible adaptation options that may extend the life of the adaptation measure
have been identified, they need to be ranked, filtered, or screened to derive a refined, short list of
the most efficient options that may be sequenced in an adaptation pathway. Options that are
unlikely, are unfeasible, or have been evaluated as less effective in comparison with the others
should be removed. It is important to have a strong basis for the selection and comparison of
adaptation strategies prior to running a detailed assessment of each, or to use guidelines and
technical references or best practices manuals to describe each adaptation option, because a
detailed assessment of options can be costly and time consuming. A simple form of multi-criteria
analysis such as the one proposed by Preston et al. (2013) could be used to evaluate choices
relative to others on their level of performance (see Figure 20).
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 140

Figure 20. Comparison of average raw performance of different coastal adaptation options for
different time horizons; results are based on the weighted average of performance scores for all
case study regions; positive values represent a favorable assessment of performance; negative
values indicate an unfavorable assessment of performance. Source: Preston et al. (2013).

The evaluation of adaptation measures should be done in a holistic manner, based on
multiple criteria to support robust decision-making. Established and proven criteria such as
engineering performance, compliance with principles of good adaptation, cost-benefit ratios,
time frame of effectiveness, and acceptance by local communities are important considerations
in order to make defensible decisions.
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 141
Classifying and selecting adaptation options by their time frame (short-, medium-, or
long-term strategies) also allows for the sequencing and bundling process of multiple adaptation
measures. Sequencing these adaptation measures is the first step of creating an adaptation
pathways map.
Principles of good adaptation. When two or more adaptation measures are equally
effective, priority should be given to the no regrets options (actions that should be undertaken
regardless of climate change and can be easily reversed with no or minimal impacts). The five
principles of good adaptation as presented after recommendation of the UKCIP are as follows:
1. Focus on cost effective actions—‘no regrets’ or ‘low regrets’ adaptation. ‘No regrets’
adaptation options would be justified and worthwhile (i.e. deliver a socio-economic
benefit) under all plausible future scenarios. ‘Low regrets’ adaptation options incur
relatively low cost and increase the capacity to cope with future climate change.
2. Use a flexible/adaptive management approach. Flexible adaptation options include
incremental measures that allow for adjustments as knowledge, technology and
experience advances. This is important for dealing with climate change uncertainties.
3. Achieve balance between climate and non-climate risks. Organizations should take a
balanced approach to managing climate and non-climate risks. Priority should be given to
actions that have ‘win-win’ outcomes, contributing to both climate change adaptation but
also providing wider social, environmental and economic benefits.
4. Avoid adaptation constraining decisions (‘high regrets’ adaptation). Adaptation
options should not lead to perverse outcomes of constraining the ability to adapt to
climate change in the future. High regrets adaptation options, as opposed to adaptive
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 142
management options, are one-dimensional, are largely irreversible and may involve
significant costs, thereby running the risk of stranded assets and irrecoverable costs.
5. Avoid catastrophic outcomes through maladaptation. Actions should not be taken that
could ultimately lead to or fail to prevent catastrophic outcomes.
The no regrets options are likely to constitute the first-tier adaptation strategies, but they
may become replaced by more sophisticated coastal plans as the impacts of SLR and climate
change escalate. That is because even when an adaptation option may cause harm or potentially
exacerbate future conditions, it becomes a priority to avoid damage at the present time. As the
impacts progress, societal perspectives change to reflect the local population's tolerance for risk.
Additional criteria then become necessary for the evaluation of the next step of adaptation.
UKCIP proposed the following six criteria:
Effective: Is the proposed action likely to meet the primary objective? Will it result in
perverse outcomes in the longer term (e.g. maladaptation)?
Proportional: Are the costs of the action likely to be in proportion to the expected
benefits? Note, as the filtering process is a qualitative exercise only, estimates of cost and
benefits rather than precise figures are required.
Compliant: Does the option comply with existing legislation, policies and guidelines?
No-regrets/low regrets: Is the action something that should be undertaken anyway (i.e. in
the absence of climate change)?
Acceptable: Is the option culturally, socially, environmentally or politically acceptable by
the majority or could there be a major backlash? Note, if the social, environmental,
political and cultural acceptability is evaluated, separate criteria should be used for each
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 143
of these aspects. For example, the wider community may not be agreeable to an option,
despite it being environmentally acceptable.
Flexible: Can the option be adjusted? Does it allow for incremental implementation?
Does it enable alternative/additional options to be implemented in the future?
Individual options are not necessarily mutually exclusive. On the contrary, they can be
implemented simultaneously with combinations of options having the potential to reinforce each
other and create synergy and efficiencies. Some adaptation options such as public education and
outreach to local communities have proven to be always beneficial to facilitate the
implementation of any adaptation measure recommended to become a continuous effort across
the adaptation maps (transversal elements). These synergies should be exploited and clearly
accounted for in the decision-making process. Evaluating bundled options for different time
periods can lead to a logical and defensible progression of strategies for effective sequencing and
mapping of escalating adaptation pathways. Figure 21 shows an example of how different
bundles or combinations of adaptation strategies may be combined to form pathways.
Subsequently, Figure 22 shows the bundles of adaptation measures to be implemented in the
Carmen-Pajonal-Machona lacunae system in the short, medium, and long term with the objective
of increasing the resiliency of the lagoon to the future effects of climate change and SLR by
abatement of the impacts of coastal erosion and achieving stabilization of the shoreline,
specifically at the sandbar.

COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 144

Figure 21.Adaptation Pathways map showing possible combinations of adaptation measures
combined in different bundles for its implementation. Source HCCREMS (2012)

COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 145

Figure 22.Adaptation options (Sand-bar management strategies ) for short, medium and long-
term implementation .

Time Frame: Short-Term (Now–2030) Bundle ID (1)
Options included:

1. Community education about climate change and extreme events (no regrets)
2. Beach nourishment (low to no regrets option)
3. Installation of groins (low regrets option)
4. Imposition of development restrictions (prevent intensification of development)
5. Installation of seawalls (last resource protected policy)
Planned retreat announcement (new policy)

Time Frame: Medium-Term (Now–2030) Bundle ID (2)
Options included:

1. Community education program on climate change and extreme events
2. Renewal of groins
3. Additional beach nourishment to mitigate scour of seawalls and groins
4. More strict development restrictions
5. Voluntary planned retreat

Time Frame: Long-Term (Beyond 2050) Bundle ID (3)
Options included:

1. Community education program climate change and extreme events
2. Upgrade of seawalls (+2m)
3. Additional beach nourishment to mitigate scour of seawalls and groins
4. Stronger development restrictions and condemnation
5. Mandatory planned retreat
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 146
New knowledge, technologies, or legislation can also make an adaptation strategy
obsolete. Future changes in planning and land use restrictions could constrict the life span of
adaptation measures. Engineering actions prescribed to manage the flux of sediment on the
coastline can progress in order to maintain a stable sandbar, from the adaptations producing less
environmental impact and having low cost. Usually, beach nourishment is the first low-cost, low-
impact adaptation strategy, but as the rate of erosion increases due to SLR and increased extreme
events, it becomes inefficient, insufficient, or too expensive. Then it will be time to add new
adaptation strategies (perhaps submerged or permeable groins) until they too become inefficient
as well. When the flexible structures are no longer useful, hard structures such as jetties and
seawalls come into play whenever possible and are recommended for anthropogenic and
environmental purposes. At some point, even hard structures become inefficient in holding the
sandbar in place. Then it is time to change from a defense policy to a retreat policy. Even the
planned retreat option could be implemented with a number of incremental steps such as (a)
planned retreat with voluntary acquisition, (b) planned retreat with compulsory acquisition, and
(c) planned retreat with full responsibility in the property owner. Similarly, one single policy—
for example, protect—may include several hard and soft coastal protection strategies that can be
combined or added incrementally to extend the lifetime of the sandbar. Policies such as retreat
and protect can also be sequenced by their effectiveness, and they can be implemented
simultaneously or overlap for a period, smoothing the transition from one policy to the next to
achieve the optimum outcome, which is achieved if the properties are acquired before they are
damaged by erosion when maintaining the sandbar is no longer possible.
There are five common coastal management policies in response to the effects of climate
change when the beach line cannot be maintained: protect, reallocate, avoid, adapt, and accept.
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 147
Table 15 illustrates different adaptation measures and strategies to be implemented under those
five land use (shoreline management) policies.
Table 15
Coastal Adaptation Measures and Strategies by Shoreline Management Policy. Source adapted
from HCCREMS (2012)
Shoreline
Management
Policy
Type of Strategy Adaptation Measure

Protect Technical and
structural
Coastal engineering alternatives to reduce
exposure of existing socio-ecologic assets to
erosion:
a. Sand dune stabilization
b. Beach nourishment
c. Groins
d. Artificial headlands
e. Offshore breakwaters and reefs
f. Seawalls
g. Revetment
h. Piles/excavation to rock
Coastal engineering works to reduce flood
exposure:
a. Dykes and levees
b. Raising of land levels
c. Flood barriers
d. Management of rainfall/runoff, e.g.,
through floodways and/or retention
basins
e. Prevention of seawater backup into
storm sewers
Information and
education

Education of residents about climate change,
associated risks and impacts, and possible
adaptation measures (e.g., how to help
themselves in an emergency)
Reallocate Risk diversification

a. Insurance to cover unavoidable impacts
b. Intra-agency risk-sharing initiatives
between organizations/agencies
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 148
Technical and
structural

Planning and
regulatory— adaptive
design
c. Land use diversification to spread risks
d. Engineering approach to reduce flood
hazard:
e. Lifting existing dwellings
f. Reduction of dependence on services
during floods
g. Changes in/upgrades of existing
infrastructure such as roads, bridges,
drains, sewer, water, etc. (e.g., floating
roads, liftable bridges, raising
infrastructure)
h. Improved design/engineering standards
for new assets and major refurbishments
(e.g., to accommodate more intense
rainfall in storm water systems, required
upgrades when renovating or extending
existing buildings) :
i. Relocating facilities (e.g., community
halls, recreation facilities) and
infrastructure (e.g., alternate transport
routes via higher land)
j. Relocating residents and businesses
from high-risk areas
k. Evacuation of residential areas
l. Buyback of coastal properties
m. Grants for demolition of homes
n. Relocation subsidies, e.g., low-interest
loans for houses and other structures
(septic systems, utility connections)
o. Rezoning of areas (e.g., coastal buffer
zones)
p. Managed retreat (decommissioning or
removal of assets, e.g., boat ramps)
q. Business as usual (accepting losses)
r. Closing of recreation areas (e.g.,
beaches and foreshores)
s. Loss of coastal conservation areas
t. Owners of private infrastructure bearing
losses (new development or
redevelopment)
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 149
Avoid Planning and
regulatory avoidance
a. Rezoning of areas (e.g., coastal buffer
zones)
b. Changing location of new developments
and infrastructure
Adapt Planning and
regulatory— adaptive
design

Technical and
structural
a. Changes to local planning scheme to
account for increased risk (e.g.,
flooding)/conditions of consent (e.g.,
improved design standards, minimum
floor height, time-limited consent)
b. Improved design standards for public
infrastructure (e.g., storm water,
transport)
c. Rolling easements, allowing property
owners to build on land at risk on the
condition that structures will be
removed if and when threatened by
coastal erosion or inundation
d. Engineering works, e.g., raising land
levels/infill
Accept Planning and
regulatory

Technical and
structural

Information and
education

a. Business as usual (accepting losses)
b. Property owners bearing the losses
c. Engineering works (see also above) to
allow development/construction of new
infrastructure accepting the risk
d. Modular homes and movable dwellings
and infrastructure
e. Floating houses
f. Water-resistant and waterproof
construction to withstand flooding
g. Informing property owners or
purchasers of policies relating to coastal
adaptation that could affect their land if
a new development is proposed when
acquiring property title

An interesting choice of policy not included in the previous table is the do-nothing
approach. The analysis of adaptation options begins by assessing the initial conditions and
evaluating the do-nothing or business-as-usual (BAU) approach. This policy usually generates
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 150
conflict, and the decision-makers and local communities reject it because to take the do-nothing
approach means to accept the suffering of all the upcoming impacts due to climate change and
future anthropogenic activities, not only compromising the well-being and comfort of the current
local communities but also the well-being and comfort of future generations. Although the do-
nothing approach at first glance looks innocuous and inexpensive, it commits the constituents to
enduring the present opportunity costs and to absorbing the losses and associated climate change
impacts from day one to whatever irreversible effects are brought by the unaddressed future.
This is usually an unacceptable outcome that decision-makers do not endorse because it is not
usually supported by constituents. However, documenting the current stage of the environment
and studying the do-nothing approach as part of the full range of adaptation options provides the
analysis with a baseline condition and allows the planners to account for the natural resilience of
the system. The do-nothing approach (absorption of maximum impacts) is a great departure point
to compare and contrast the rest of the adaptation policies.
Littoral transport:, in a cursory analysis, Illescas calculated the average littoral transport
in the area by using the Larras equation models (as recommended by the Coastal Engineering
Research Center, manual of coastal protection). Illescas calculated the average littoral transport
in front of the CPM sand-bar as 1.76 m
3
(by linear meter of beach front per day).
During the Winter, Illescas calculated about 2.95 m
3
(per linear meter of beach front per day) and
2.62 m
3
(per linear meter of beach front per day) during the summer (Illescas 2014)
The resulting littoral transport conditions in winter and summer are very low and very
similar during the majority of the year. Although the coastal conditions during the summer are
quite different that the coastal conditions for the winter the net littoral transport remains almost
the same due to the combined effects of different littoral process. During the winter the swell is
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 151
greater, but it has less net littoral transport because the angle of incidence of the swell is very low
during the winter relative to the position of the coast because the swell comes from the north,
almost completely perpendicular to the coastline. While in summer, the swell conditions
affecting the coast are less severe and the coastal transport continues to be minimal, and similar
both in the 3 months of summer and during the 3 months of winter. However, the above
calculations show that whenever a three day storm occurs, it can cause a total amount of coastal
sediment transport equivalent to the net transport during the entire winter season or the entire
summer season.
Using the results of this perfunctory analysis, we can think about engineering solutions
that help retain the sand on the beach during storm events, but that at the same time do not
interrupt the balance of the sediment flux during normal conditions, to follow the precautionary
policy principle of "no regrets." The net transport under normal conditions is small and occurs
mainly over the face of the beach, but the majority of net sediment transport during storm events
occurs at a deeper water level. For that reason, submerged structures impairing net sand transport
during storm events (underwater structures located at the relevant water depth for the typical
"Norte" storm event) but not over the beach face impacting daily sediment transport should be
considered as one option to avoid the more significant erosion impacts, adding resiliency to the
sandbar without causing major impacts to the system at a regional scale.
To deal with the average transport occurring on a daily basis, a small artisanal level
dredging system could suffice. Using existing boats, currently used by the community for
extraction of bottom mussels, sand from the bottom of the channel may be extracted and
deposited over the face of the beach with buckets. This small scale mode of transport may
generate jobs for community members that are currently struggling with failing mussels
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 152
aquaculture practices and being compensated about a dollar a day. This artisanal scale sediment
transport may best mimic the scale of the natural process occurring on the area during normal
conditions. Adding depth to the lagoon mouth currently suffering from sediment accretion could
create strong secondary benefits, adding resiliency at system and not only at community level for
the creation of jobs. By increasing the depth of the main lagoon channel, the rate of water and
oxygen exchange most probably will be increased, allowing the lagoon more healthy circulation
patterns and, in the best of cases, perhaps the increased circulation could be enough to flush out
the areas suffering from low water quality due to organic pollution and high concentrations of
coliforms. When these changes occur, the Carmen-Pajonal-Machona lacunae system will be
closer to its local goal of being certified as a high quality area fit for aquaculture practices,
supporting the bundle of adaptation measures related to aquaculture practices and creating
synergy and efficiencies during the adaptation measures implementation process.
The artisanal system of sediment management may grow as the needs of the system
evolve, resulting in more typical dredging strategies, assuming the economics of the system are
not a total impairment. Also, different adaptation measures to avoid coastal erosion and increase
the resiliency of the system may be combined or scaled in a modular way to grow as the impacts
of sea level rise and climate change increase over time. Figure 23 shows a precursory analysis of
possible adaptation pathways considered for the preservation of the sandbar, combining the
underwater retaining "hard structures" (to ameliorate effects of major winter storms) with
"flexible and removable structures" that may be used to boost capacity when conditions get close
to the hard structure thresholds. The artisanal dredging and beach "nourishment" program option
that may be scaled up as the sea level rises and the erosion patterns worsen, the "doing nothing"
approach, and the constant “monitoring and re-evaluation” process are recommended to
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 153
dynamically coordinate all these possible adaptation measures in support of the stability of the
sandbar.

Figure 23.Pathways Map for the Sandbar Management.

Time horizon 100 years, low-end scenario
Time horizon 50 years, high-end scenario
An Adaptation Pathways Map for the Sandbar
Management
No Action
Hard Structures
Flex Structures
Nourishment
Monitoring
Transfer station to new policy action
Adaptation Tipping Point of a policy action (Terminal )
Policy action effective
Changing conditions
Time high -end scenario
Time low-end scenario
0
0
10 70 80 90 100
Years
10 70 80 90 100
1
2
3
4
5
9
Pathway Co-benefits Costs Benefits
+++
++
0
- - -
0
0
0
- 0
+++
+++++
+++
+
+
0
0
0
0
Time horizon 100 Years, high-end scenario
Pathways that are not necessary in
the low-end scenario
6
7
8
-
-
- - - +
+++
++++ 0
0
+
Trigger
Decision node
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 154
Adaptation measures to accelerate the landward migration of mangroves.
Historically, whole mangrove ecosystems have been able to cope with climate change
and sea level rise by adapting to the slowly evolving new conditions of temperature, salinity, and
inundation periods by migrating toward the temperature, soil, and period of inundation optimal
for their development. The distribution of mangroves is controlled by the influence of the tide,
the availability of fresh water, sunlight, adequate environmental temperatures, and the texture of
the sediments. The mangrove ecosystem is resilient and can absorb some climate change impacts
by reorganizing itself from the effects of environmental stressors, varying the size and
composition of its different mangrove species population to maintain its functions, processes,
and structure. If sea level is rising relative to the elevation of the mangrove (at the sediment
surface level), the mangrove’s seaward and landward margins retreat landward or expand
laterally into areas of higher elevation as the mangrove trees migrate to maintain their preferred
hydro-period as shown in Figure 24.
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 155

Figure 24.Mangrove inland migration in response to SLR. Source: Gilman et al. (2008).
Mangrove loss will further accelerate coastal erosion and reduce all environmental
services usually provided by the mangrove proportionally to the amount of mangrove lost. The
direct loss of mangrove hectares results in related loses such as reduction in coastal water
quality, in biodiversity, in total available area serving as nursery and critical habitat for the
majority of fish and crustaceans, and in future opportunity of mangrove regeneration. When the
mangrove erodes on the edges, the environmental conditions for recruitment and establishment
of new mangrove plants erode, because it becomes increasingly difficult for the mangrove seeds
to find adequate suitable hydrology and sediment composition to implant themselves at the edge
of the mangrove (the regular mangrove dispersion pattern), and they have to migrate further
resulting in competition with non-mangrove plant species and other waterborne seedlings. Even
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 156
anthropogenic communities become heavily affected by the loss of hectares because they rely on
mangroves for numerous products and services today and will in the future.
Although most mangrove sediment surface in the world is not keeping pace with the
current accelerated rate of sea level rise, the situation at the CPM lagoon is further exacerbated
by the severe rate of terrain subsidence of the area due to anthropogenic activities related to oil
extraction and to the substrate composition (silt-type sediments high in organic matter prone to
fast decomposition during the summer, causing fast compaction and liquefaction as well as
transport during the rainy season). The area is suffering not only the effects of SLR but also a
severe rate of subsidence that basically duplicates the net rate of surface elevation change. In
addition, the topography of the terrain is very flat, causing miles of low-relief floodplains
surrounding the lagoon. This situation means that a small increase in the vertical elevation of the
water surface results in the inland advancement of more than a mile of standing water, as clearly
shown in
Figure 25.
Recent studies have indicated that rising sea level will have the greatest impact on
mangroves experiencing net lowering in sediment elevation and where there is limited area for
landward migration, as is the case for CPM.
Mangrove ecosystems are threatened by several climate change impacts. To predict
mangrove responses to relative sea level rise, it is necessary to determine if the change in sea
level is the predominant influence on mangrove position and health, or if other stressors are.
Based on available evidence, the vulnerability study sponsored by the World Bank determined
that from all climate change impacts, relative sea level rise was the greatest threat to the lacunae
system and its mangroves. Even so, there are other climate change–related impacts that may
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 157
affect mangroves, including the lagoon’s circulation patterns, high-water events that cause
erosion at the edge of the mangrove, storms, extreme precipitation, temperature, and sudden
atmospheric CO2 variations affecting the health and functionality of the mangroves.

Figure 25.Current location of mangrove forest surrounding the Carmen-Pajonal-Machona
lacunae system; In gray, current water level; in green, current mangrove location; and in blue,
future sea level assuming a total elevation change of 1.2 m according to the high-emission
scenario for the year 2100.
Adaptation measures can offset anticipated mangrove losses and improve resistance and
resilience to climate change. Below in Table 16, I present a compilation of adaptation options
designed to avoid, minimize, and delay the adverse outcomes from the loss of mangroves
predicted in response to projected climate change and SLR.
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 158

Table 16
Adaptation Measures to Increase Mangrove Resilience to Climate Change. Adapted from E. L.
Gilman et al. (2008).
Adaptation
Measure
Description
Reduction of
stresses

a. Reduce mangrove vulnerability to climate change and
anthropogenic activities stressors.
b. Eliminate non-climate stresses on mangroves through
changes in land use adjacent to the mangrove (conversion
of highly polluting activities such as farming to more
benign activities for the mangrove).
c. Activities that may interfere with the sediment loads
arriving at the mangrove can be managed at catchment
level to minimize long-term reductions in mangrove
sediment elevation and to enhance sediment elevation.
d. Enhance mangrove sediment accretion rates through
innovative strategies such as beneficial use of dredge
spoils or organic solid waste used to create mangrove
nutrients and biomass.
e. Avoid excessive or sudden sediment deposition near the
mangroves.
Managed retreat
involves
implementing
land-use planning
mechanisms
before the effects
of rising sea level
become apparent,
which can be
planned carefully
with sufficient
lead time to
enable
economically
viable, socially
acceptable, and
environmentally
sound
a. Shoreline site planning. Zoning restrictions leaving open
sections of shoreline adjacent to current mangroves to
facilitate long-term retreat as sea level rises.
b. Adequate setbacks by assessing site-specific rates for
landward migration of the mangrove landward margin.
c. Regulation of existing development over time.
Development could be abandoned or moved inland when
the eroding coastline becomes a safety hazard or prevents
landward migration of mangroves as hard structures will
prevent the mangroves’ natural landward migration.
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 159
management
measures
Fortification a. Bio-fences (soft structures made with already failed
mangrove trees).
b. Mangroves provide natural coastal protection; this feature
is expensive to replace with artificial structures.
c. Hard structures will cause erosion of the mangrove
fronting the structure and the adjacent mangrove trees
downstream (in the direction of the long-shore sediment
transport). The changes in sediment transport due to the
hard structure will cause it to erode, and the area will
eventually be converted to deepwater habitat.
d. For some sections of highly developed coastline adjacent
to mangroves, site planning may justify use of hard
engineering technology
e. (e.g., groins, seawalls, revetments, bulkheads) and other
shoreline erosion control measures (e.g., surge breakers,
dune fencing, detached breakwaters) to halt erosion.
Representation,
replication, and
refuge through a
system of
protected area
networks
Establishment of mangrove biological zoning techniques
to implement mangrove representation, replication, and
refuge.
a. Representation: It is important to ensure full
representation of all mangrove community types when
establishing a network of protected areas. It is important
as well to replicate identical communities to spread risk
and elevate the probability of mangrove ecosystems
surviving climate change stressors. As representation
increases the change, at least one of these communities
with disparate physical and biological parameters will
survive climate change stressors and provide a source for
re-colonization.
b. Replication: Protecting multiple examples of each
vegetation zone and geomorphic setting through the
protection of multiple areas of each mangrove community
type can avoid the loss of a single community type.
c. Refugia: Selecting resilient areas of the mangrove to act
as climate change refuges for younger individuals. Mature
mangrove communities will be more resistant and
resilient to stresses, including those from climate change,
than recently established forests. Refugia areas serve as a
source of recruits to re-colonize areas that are lost or
damaged by SLR.
Protected area site selection should account for predicted
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 160
ecosystem responses to climate change such as the likely
movements of habitat boundaries and species ranges over
time under different sea level and climate change
scenarios.
A system of networks of protected areas can be designed
to protect connectivity between coastal ecosystems,
including mangroves.
Protecting a series of mature, healthy mangrove sites
along a coastline could increase the likelihood of there
being a source of waterborne seedlings to re-colonize
sites that are degraded.
Protected area designs should include all coastal
ecosystems to maintain functional links.
Mangrove
rehabilitation
a. Mangrove enhancement (removing stresses that caused
their decline) can augment resistance and resilience to
climate change.
b. Mangrove restoration (restoring areas where mangrove
habitat previously existed) can offset anticipated losses
from climate change, especially if the restoration is inland
directed.
Regional
monitoring
a. There is a need to monitor and study changes
systematically.
b. Establishing mangrove baselines and monitoring gradual
changes through regional networks using standardized
techniques will enable the separation of site-based
influences from global changes to provide a better
understanding of mangrove responses to sea level and
global climate change, and will provide alternatives for
mitigating adverse effects.
Outreach and
education
a. Outreach and education activities can augment
community support for adaptation actions.
b. Education and outreach programs are an investment to
bring about changes in behavior and attitudes of the local
communities. Public knowledge about measures to
conserve and sustainably manage mangroves provides the
local community with information to make informed
decisions about the use of their mangrove resources and
results in grassroots support and political will.

COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 161
There are several types of mangrove management strategies, based in principles of
biological function, physical geomorphology of the terrain, or the designated land use and
anthropogenic uses occurred on the area.
Biological based adaptation strategies. Table 16 explains in detail most of the biological
based strategies useful to strengthen the health of the mangroves in the CPM lagoon area.
Engineering strategies. Strategies to facilitate mangrove migration away from sea level
rise elevate the substrate to counter the excessive rate of subsidence by solid or hydraulic
landfill. This can be done as a byproduct (synergy or efficiency) of implementing other
adaptation measures such as the solid residue management plan (whereby organic solid residues
may be used as a compost to increase the substrate level in certain areas of the mangrove), or the
capture of rainwater in deep water wells or the reinjection of seawater to maintain hydraulic
pressure in the soil to counter the subsidence rates for as long as the oil extraction activities
continue.
The substrate elevation in the area is also strongly influenced by the amount of sediment
deposition occurring in the mangroves area. Management of activities within the catchment that
affect long-term sediment transport trends at the watershed level may affect the net mangrove
elevation accretion by deposition. For example, the use of biofences and other adaptation
measures are intended to slow down currents near the margins of the mangrove in order to
decrease erosion and increase the deposition of sediment at the interface with the mangrove
roots.
Planning and land use strategies. As additional planning strategies, one could regulate the
intensity of the land use surrounding the mangrove for better management of other stressors,
rehabilitation of degraded mangrove areas, and increases in systems of strategically designed
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 162
protected area networks that include mangroves and functionally linked ecosystems through
representation, replication, and refuge. Biological corridors are additional adaptation options to
strengthen the health of the mangroves in the CPM lagoon area. Figure 26 shows a proposed land
use plan for the mangrove.
Adaptation strategies for the acceleration of the inland migration of the mangrove can also
be combined sequentially or simultaneously repeated spatially or combined for better results. In
fact, one of the latest trends for the protection of shorelines is the so called "Living shorelines
strategy".
A living shoreline is a protected, stabilized coastal edge made of natural materials such as
plants, sand, or rock that, unlike a hard structure, presents less environmental consequences, by
allowing versus impeding the growth of plants and animals, and the flow of the natural process
such as water and sediment exchange. Living shorelines grow over time helped by the biota they
sustain stabilizing shorelines, reducing erosion, and providing valuable habitat that enhances the
natural coastal resilience of the systems. Figure 27 shows how some of the adaptation measures
proposed in this section may be combined using the living shorelines principles.

COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 163

Land use plan showing
biological corridors as blue
dashed areas
Figure 26. Proposed land use for CPM. Blue dashed area: biological corridors. Source: Avendano et al.,(2016).
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 164

Figure 27. Proposed adaptation measures after the living shoreline concept.
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 165

Adaptation Plans for the first-tier adaptation measure: The following section presents a
summary of adaptation plans prepared for the first-tier adaptation measures during the World's
bank project, but they have been adapted to serve the purposes of this dissertation by enlarging
the sections regarding climate change resiliency when deemed necessary to provide the reader
with a better understanding of the wide range of actions necessary to perform under each bundle
of adaptation measures targeting each specific adaptation measure, and then creating an
adaptation map to reflect a possible pathway for the implementation of the first and second-tier
adaptation measures in a coordinated manner.

Adaptation plan micro-credits:
Micro-credit systems to strengthen the local micro-industry and sustainable socio-
economic activities, turning the problems generated by climate change into opportunities.
Adaptation measure description. The adaptation measure of micro-credits is a program of small-
scale loans focused on financing production activities that will improve the resiliency of the
coastal community by creating capacity for climate change response and fostering a stronger
economy that is less vulnerable to the foreseen changes in the climate of the region. This
adaptation measure uses micro-credits as a mechanism to finance the creation of new products
and services that will strengthen the community against climate change, meeting the dual
objective of reducing the economic and social vulnerability of the beneficiaries, as well as
protecting them from the adversities resulting from climate change and sea level rise. This
adaptation measure may in fact finance other adaptation measures such as agroforestry or
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 166
changing to freshwater aquaculture at artisanal level. Once this artisanal economy is self-
sufficient, the adaptation measures may be replicated in several families to extend it to the
community-wide level, benefiting other members of the original borrowing group.
This program is directed to coastal communities in the most vulnerable social strata: to
those that live in extreme poverty (usually subsisting on incomes of about a dollar a day); to
residents of rural communities who own less than an acre of land; and especially to women who
in many cases do not have access to jobs, business, or any other formal way of substantial
income. These individuals also lack access to any type of credit or financial instruments to
initiate their own business to support their families (International Cooperation and Development
Fund, 2003).
This initiative is different from the conventional lines of credit in that the credit subject is
a group of beneficiaries, not a single beneficiary or fiscal person. This is because a group of
individuals from the same community is used to exercise peer pressure to guarantee payment.
The other members of the group supervise the use of financial resources for the intended
purposes and, if necessary, they will intervene or contribute to the success of the project so that
the micro-financing cycle continues and the benefits of the micro-credits reach all the members
of the participating community. Although it is the individuals who receive the credit, the group
can be vetoed if one of its members fails to fulfill its obligations. Peer pressure and community
co-responsibility replaces collateral risk reducing guarantees, substituting the traditional bonds
offerings, and reducing the cost of financing. Lower income levels usually do not have credit
history or the opportunity to get any credit due to the lack of collateral. This no-cost collateral
makes credit available and affordable for all income levels including the lowest levels, were they
are needed the most.
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 167
Micro-credits are generally not successful without supplementary efforts in support of the
community. Micro-credits succeed in strengthening the economy and the community when
executed in conjunction with other efforts to educate and raise awareness in communities about
issues that impair prosperity and opportunity such as domestic violence, analphabetism,
alcoholism, and unemployment. When combined, awareness campaigns, literacy campaigns, and
community education campaigns sustain the efforts seeded by the micro-credits. Community
education campaigns may also be used to bolster the borrowers' sense of responsibility by
educating borrowers about their obligations, the legislation and banking rules governing the
loans they will receive, and successful investment strategies. They can also help each individual
credit recipient to learn about how increasing capacity for the community increases the well-
being and overall economic productivity of all its members. Introducing additional programs
such as campaigns for health, long term education, civic responsibility, equality, and respect
towards women enrich the community and make it more resilient to changes, including
beneficial changes such as woman having equal opportunity to have a job. This type of
microcredit program can only succeed in tight-knit communities as the structure relies on the
teamwork and responsibility-sharing of a group of individuals as collateral.
Adaptation measure target: Families living in the communities linked to the Carmen-Pajonal-
Machona lagoon system that are living in poverty and demonstrate high vulnerability due to
climate change and the future effects of anthropologic development, especially women and rural
communities without access to any other type of financing.
Problem statement: According to the information generated in the "Product B - Diagnosis of the
current situation of the wetland - Report of socio-cultural, economic and infrastructure
conditions" of the first study (Avendano et at 2016), the socioeconomic context of the study area
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 168
is characterized by two parallel economic dimensions that present a marked contrast in the area:
(a) the economy linked to oil activities (buoyant and dynamic), and (b) the economy of the rest
of the population, which is basically a subsistence economy. The sector of the population
belonging to the subsistence economy is extremely vulnerable to climate change because their
source of income is usually outdoor activities such as farming, fishing, and small-scale ranching.
These are families where women have not only most of responsibility, but also the dual
responsibilities of being the main productivity force and the reproductive force in the
communities. Furthermore, because of cultural biases, single mothers in many cases are excluded
from the family network, and are denied of any privileges like sharing tools, land, financing,
transportation, and other forms of community and family support. The area of study presents
extremely high social vulnerability, and high infant mortality, even in comparison with the rest
of the state. The vulnerability study highlights strong marginalization of women as one of the
main factors influencing the failure of previous financing efforts, as the “men” of the community
misused funding resources because no one could challenge their position of authority.
This demonstrated an extensive opportunity for the implementation for the adaptation
measure of micro-credits, with a social purpose adding more to the community than a pure
economic purpose. These micro-credits are tailored to serve populations in conditions of poverty
and marginalization, particularly women, who represent approximately 50% of the population in
the CPM area of study.
Adaptation measure specific programs description: The microcredits program will be carried
out through two different programs called "Sustainable Produce" and "Productive Well-Being".
Each line of credit has a specific purpose but interest rates in both should be lower than those
commonly handled by traditional banks, such as 20% interest at the end of the loan cycle.
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 169
Savings and reinvestment programs must be established concurrently in the community to build
community capacity and to promote social mobility. The savings and reinvestment programs
must be designed individually for each borrowing group, in terms of a percentage of the net
benefits that the loan represents and the net increase of beneficiaries' assets.
The "Sustainable Produce" credit program is open to people living in poverty who wish
to start or improve upon existing productive agricultural, fishing, aquaculture, and sustainable
forestry activities. These activities are given priority and are being adapted through microcredits
because they were identified by the vulnerability study as expected to be impacted the most by
climate change. By targeting vulnerabilities that are expected to worsen over time we create a
community that is more resilient to future changes.
The loans proposed vary from $5,000 Mexican pesos to $10,000 Mexican pesos for new
beneficiaries and can be increased to $30,000 Mexican pesos for beneficiaries with two years in
the program showing positive results or that have already a good credit record. The activities to
be financed are:
1) Comprehensive and sustainable agricultural production: Credits are granted to acquire
basic inputs for sustainable agricultural production such as: seeds, fertilizers and
organic pesticides, or vermicompost (product of the composting process using various
species of worms), breeding stock, drip irrigation systems, live fences, tools and
materials needed for farming (see Cepeda-Gómez, 2004).
2) Comprehensive and sustainable fisheries: Credits are granted to acquire legal and
outboard motors, safety equipment, flashing lights, radios and sustainable fishing gear
in compliance with the applicable regulations in accordance with local management
plans, and General Laws on Fisheries and Sustainable Aquaculture.
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3) Integral and sustainable aquaculture production: Credits are granted for the purchase
or construction of farming gear such as oyster beds, or for the implementation of other
adaptation measures in support of aquaculture and other authorized land used in
accordance with local management plans.
4) Integrated and sustainable livestock production: Credits are granted for the removal of
obstacles to mobility in communally owned grasslands, intensification in livestock
productivity, foraging, and food acquisition that improved cattle diet and other
industry best practices.
5) Comprehensive and sustainable forestry exploitation: Credits are granted for the
incorporation of mangrove sustainable harvesting techniques with respect to the
applicable legislation and in accordance to local mangrove use management plans.
These credits can finance beekeeping projects that take advantage of the mangrove
flower, reforestation projects of mangroves, and even education of the beneficiary
community with advisory services for admission to carbon credit programs and
payments for environmental services.
Once the economy scales from the family supply, to the community supply, and to the
export of products produced in the region, credits can be expanded to the following activities:
1) Sustainable processing of agricultural products;
2) Sustainable processing of fishery products;
3) Sustainable processing of aquaculture products;
4) Sustainable processing of livestock products;
5) Sustainable processing of forest products;
6) Fair and sustainable marketing of agricultural products;
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7) Fair and sustainable marketing of fishery products;
8) Fair and sustainable marketing of aquaculture products;
9) Fair and sustainable marketing of livestock products;
10) Fair and sustainable commercialization of forest products.
In a third phase, these programs may expand to provide the credit possibilities to other
members of the community who wish to process primary products or provide services to the
local primary producers (for example, repair service for plowing tools, construction of
cultivation beds for oysters, sharpening of tools for forest exploitation, and others).
Line of credit "Productive Well-Being": This line of credit provides for those investing in actions
that seek family and community wellbeing through increasing the quality of life of the
community and reducing its vulnerability to climate change and future anthropogenic
development by increasing the economic and productive capacity of the communities. The
program is restricted to those who already have a two-year credit history with the financial
program and are of good credit. The proposed loans vary from $500 Mexican pesos to $2,000
Mexican pesos for new beneficiaries to this program and $2,000 Mexican pesos to $5,000
Mexican pesos for beneficiaries with one year of seniority and good credit history. The programs
to be financed under this line of credit are:
1) Loan program to repair or make improvements to achieve sustainable homes: Low
amount loans for minor repairs that cause constant losses of material and financial
resources such as: repairs of plumbing (leaks), repairs or improvements to electrical
systems (repairs to avoid electrical shorts), repair or installation of mosquito nets on
doors and windows, change of pipeline from land to firm floor, purchase of closed water
tanks for water storage, installation of laundry, purchase or renewal of gas tanks, repair or
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 172
improvement of wood stoves, and purchase of solar stoves among other basic repairs.
2) Program for the construction and improvement of sustainable housing: Financing for the
installation of catchment, purification and rainwater collection systems, construction of
cisterns and sanitary services, giving preferential treatment or guidance for the
application of eco-techniques such as dry toilets or with gray water separation and reuse
systems from the family to community level as the community progresses.
These programs can be an important source of financing for measures of adaptation to
climate change that reduce the vulnerability of homes to events such as floods, or that improve
the quality of life of people and reduce their vulnerability by solving some basic security and
comfort issues in their own homes.
These loans work as well under the system of peer pressure and community overview and
therefore require no collateral. Other supplementary efforts to increase capacity in the borrowing
communities are:
• Technical assistance in the preparation of business plans.
• Technical and financial advice for integral and sustainable production.
• Technical and financial advice for the sustainable processing of products. Preferential
treatment should be given to groups of women who can process products of high yield such
as chocolate, cocoa butter, lipsticks, or masks.
• Technical and financial advice for the fair and sustainable marketing of products. Financial
institutions should promote productive networks and have portfolios of producers, service
providers, market information, and other information that serves to connect and orient
beneficiaries to those who can buy their products, or who can provide them with excellent
quality services with affordable and fair prices.
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• Legal assistance for women. Women are a key segment of and the main target population for
the microcredits. However, they are usually the most vulnerable and require legal assistance
for cases of intra-family violence, in the management of their finances, and other services.
Cooperation schemes should be sought with institutions that already provide this type of
assistance, such as the Women's Institute of Mexico City, which provides support through
specialized legal counsel aimed at achieving legal equality and which also participates in
programs to promote women in the acquisition of national and international legal knowledge.
http://www.inmujeres.df.gob.mx (consulted in January 2016)
• Literacy programs. In coordination with other federal agencies such as the National Institute
of Adult Education INEA.
• Education programs for health and hygiene. The focus of this program should be the
community in order to use it as an opportunity for collective improvement and to transform
the socio-ecosystem that could be linked to programs for the management of domestic waste,
wastewater, pest control and vector-borne diseases.
• Technical and financial advice for the management of external production cycles. This
program should include advice to enhance the added value of positive externalities of
sustainable production cycles such as soil conservation and the reuse of organic matter for
composting that accompany sustainable agriculture, the monitoring of water quality in areas
of oyster culture, the coastal protection associated with good mangrove forest management,
or finding markets that value these characteristics in a product.
Adaptation measure general objectives: The general objective is to implement a micro-credit
system to strengthen local micro-industry, and sustainable socio-economic activities that turn the
problems generated by climate change into opportunities. Objectives are:
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 174
(a) To promote and strengthen productive cycles of sustainable economic activities;
(b) To procure family welfare and good quality of life to reduce vulnerability and
increase productive power.
Justification: The adaptation measure of micro-credits is justified because it mitigates the high
social, economic, and physical vulnerability of the community caused by the adverse effects of
climate change that prevail in the area of study. Micro-credits also address the scarcity of
opportunities to get out of the survival economy allowing community members to gain
independence from permanent or long-term dependence on welfare or subsidy schemes.
Replicability: This system of microcredits has been used in several parts of the world with great
success, most prominently in countries like India with socio-economic conditions similar to
those observed in the study area.
Action plan: These schemes can be implemented through agreements with financial institutions
in accordance to the program described above or through government agencies each fiscal year
in the form of subsidy programs and approved public spending funds. The financial institutions
in Mexico that could adopt or implement the proposed scheme are:
a) "SOFOM" Multiple Purpose Financial Companies (http://www.fira.gob.mx ) accessed in
January 2016).
b) "Avanza Solido", S.A. of C.V. (http://www.avanzasolido.com.mx/individual/) consulted
in January 2016).
c) Financial Agricultural Group "Agrofinanciera" (http://www.agro-
financiera.com/agrofinanciera/NuestraEmpresa.html), consulted in January 2016).
d) "Conserva" Group: Conserva.org. (html; http://www.conserva.org.mx/ubica-tu-
sucursal.html; consulted in January 2016).
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 175
e) • "Magil, S.A. de C.V."," SOFOM", and "ENR" Private company specialized in the
financial sector. Villahermosa Tabasco. Micro-businesses Agro-business Microcredits
(http://www.magilsofom.com/microdoc.html, accessed in January 2016).
f) "SOFIHAA Financial": "SOFO" sugarcane agriculture (http://www.sofihaa.com.mx/)
consulted in January 2016).
g) Micro Financing Fund for Rural Women "PROMMUR", Ministry of Women and Men in
the Rural Zone, excluded from formal financial services
(http://www.pronafim.gob.mx/uploads/files/ReglasOperacionFOMMUR2015_317b5aa
cac.pdf, consulted in January 2016) among others.
Monitoring program: The monitoring of this measure is done by following the social mobility
factors and the performance of the beneficiaries at repaying the credits, since it is assumed that
an improvement in socioeconomic conditions results in a greater capacity to respond to disasters,
and therefore less vulnerability. Mobility is generally measured by accumulation of assets not
directly linked to the nature of the credit. For example, if a woman obtains a credit for planting
vegetables, her mobility is measured by the increase of non-agricultural goods in her household.
This adaptation measure itself has a monitoring mechanism integrated to ensure that the
resources have the intended destination, in which the financial institution that grants the micro-
credit and the collateral substitution system based on peer surveillance. It is also recommended
that financial institutions provide annual reports indicating the number and socioeconomic
characteristics of the beneficiaries of the micro-credits and the results of the productive projects
financed and reporting in the social components of the program by reporting socio-cultural,
economic and infrastructure conditions in order to document quantitative and qualitative changes
in the conditions of the vulnerable populations.
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Further readings:
• Cepeda-Gómez, C. 2004. Análisis de los factores que determinan la adopción de la
agricultura orgánica en la producción de café en Huatusco, Veracruz. Universidad de las
Américas Puebla, Escuela de Ciencias Sociales, Departamento de Economía.
• CONEVAL y COLEGIO DE MÉXICO. 2009 Diagnóstico de las políticas públicas de
microcrédito del gobierno federal.
• Faridi, R. 2004. “Essays on Microcredit Programs and Evaluation of Women’s Success”
Dissertation submitted to the Faculty of the Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State
University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in
Economics.
• Flores-Alonso, M. de L. 2001. “La medición de la pobreza en México” en Centro de Estudios
Sociales y de Opinión Pública, Boletín No. 1.
• International Cooperation and Development Fund. 2003. The Importance of Microcredit Pro-
grams in Sustainable Development. Taiwan IDF Special Report
• INAP (Instituto Nacional de Administración Pública). 1999. La gestión pública de las
políticas ambientales. Instituto Nacional de Administración Pública A. C. Sección Mexicana
del Instituto Internacional de Ciencias Administrativas.
• INE (Instituto Nacional de Ecología) 2000. Estrategia ambiental para la gestión integrada de
la zona costera de México: Propuesta Retos para el Desarrollo Sustentable. Instituto Nacional
de Ecología-SEMARNAP. Pp. 40.
• Lewin, K. 1945. Resolving Social Conflicts Selected Papers on Group Dynamics. Weiss
Lew- in, G. (Editor). HARPER INTERNATIONAL.
• Magaña-Virgen, M., Loza-Llamas, A., Ramírez Quintana-Carr, A. I., Balzaretti-Heym, K.,
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 177
Orozco-Medina, M. G., Rimoldi-Rentería, M. J., López-Alcocer, E., Torres Sánchez, P.,
Pérez
• Peña, O. 2008. Génesis de la Problemática ambiental. (Guía auxiliar para la elaboración de
planes estratégicos de gestión ambiental).
• Monti, A. y Escofet, A, 2007. Ocupación urbana de espacios litorales: gestión del riesgo e
iniciativas de manejo en una comunidad patagónica auto-motivada (Playa Magaña, Chubut,
Argentina). Investigaciones Geográficas, Boletín del Instituto de Geografía, UNAM 67:113-
119.
• Novo, M. y R. Lara (coord.). 1997. La interpretación de la problemática ambiental -
Enfoques Básicos Tomos I y II, Universidad Nacional de Educación a Distancia, Cátedra
UNESCO de Educación Ambiental / Fundación Univ. Empresa – Madrid.
• Ocaranza, C. 2013. México, sin talento para crecer; faltan profesionales especializados.
EXCÉLSIORhttp://www.excelsior.com.mx/nacional/2013/11/12/928403#imagen-1
• Zapala-Ríos, A. 2012. La ganadería y el desarrollo sustentable. Sitio argentino de Producción
Animal.
Adaptation Plan Community-Based Solid Waste Management.
Adaptation measure description: This adaptation measure is a management plan intended to
solve the problem of solid waste management in the CPM area of study. This problem is
complex, iterative, dynamic and persistent in the region; it requires wide spectrum of specific
considerations such as:
• Integral or holistic perspective addressing the problem starting at the sources of waste
generation. The program will include waste management at the production and
consumption level to change the behavior of the community
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 178
• A strong component of environmental education for both affected communities and
decision makers
• Identification of key stakeholders interested in the affected communities who lead the
actions involved in the plan
• Creation of technical capacity to manage solid waste
• A realistic time frame to implement all these measures in the community, since a
problem of this nature requires a lengthy process where each action requires a period
of trial and error.
Adaptation measure target: The object of conservation is the Carmen-Pajonal-Machona lagoon
system. The solid waste management plan is aimed at the waste generated domestically and dos
not extend to large waste generators or hazardous waste generators because those elements
require specialized management processes.
Problem statement: There are severe waste management issues on the area causing serious
environmental problems related to the handling of organic and inorganic solid waste. The size
and type of waste generated in the area of study has not even been accurately quantified. There is
a lack of quantitative information to objectively estimate the different dimensions of the
problem. There are garbage dumps in the open; the presence of solid waste is observed
throughout the city, the communities, and the lagoon system, but especially in highly sensitive
areas such as the beach and the mangrove swamps which are polluting all local water bodies.
The problem is complicated by cognitive deficiencies in the local communities, that is,
the population in general lacks the necessary knowledge for good waste management, and
furthermore the communities do not have the necessary infrastructure to properly manage solid
waste.
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 179
Adaptation measure description: This adaptation measure consists of a Solid Waste
management plan. This is a measure of adaptation to climate change designed to be applied in
the communities surrounding the Carmen-Pajonal-Machona lagoon system. This plan was
created drawing on the methodological contributions of Armijo De Vega (2006), DIA AC
(2008), Lorax Consultores SA de CV (2009), Aguirre-Alcalá (2009) and Alonso-Marrufo and
Paz-Hernández (2014) in solid waste management.
The plan consists of seven fundamental components that can be developed either
simultaneously or sequenced as best serve the circumstances of each location; Component 0
seeks to reduce the generation of waste through the awakening of environmental awareness
through continuous environmental education; Component 1 focuses on achieving the
implementation of a permanent program for the differentiated management of household waste;
Component 2 extends this program to small businesses; Component 3 focuses on the assumption
of responsibility by governments and large generators of solid waste. These components extend
to the entire life cycle of commercial products that eventually become solid waste. The study
includes the redesign of commercial products to reduce the carbon footprint. Component 4 is
dedicated to modifying patterns of consumption that reject or eliminate toxic products, non-
degradable and non-recyclable packaging and reinforcement of behavior patterns that inhibit the
generation of garbage; Component 5 is devoted to the reuse of materials and recycling and,
finally Component 6 is related to the final disposal of waste in an appropriate manner and to
establish strict sanitation protocols.
Increases in temperature, precipitation and Sea Level Rise were considered for the solid
waste management plan as an adaptation measure for the climate change scenarios RCP4.5 and
RCP8.5 that signal intensification of extreme precipitation events in a warmer climate with more
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 180
frequent and more intense cyclonic events. Consideration of these impacts lead to the
prioritization of waste generation reduction, as this is the root source of the problem resulting in
a general deterioration of the quality of the environment and the quality of life of the inhabitants
of the CPM study area. Changes in temperature, humidity, precipitation, and the elevation of the
mean sea level directly modify the natural resilience capacity of the lagoon system to absorb
organic waste. Those changes also modify the capacity of the system to disperse contaminants,
and the dispersion patterns for non-degradable or difficult-to-decompose residues that remain on
the system for very long periods of time. During extreme rainfall events, is it expected that large
quantities of water will arrive from the river basin carrying sediments and plant remains, but also
an avalanche of solid waste to be trapped between the mangrove trees or at the beach dunes
before reaching the ocean.
Component 0: Awareness and commitment (environmental education) . The goal is to
reduce generation of solid waste through communities’ environmental awareness by means of
continuous environmental education with the following specific goals:
(a) Sensitize key actors, local governments, and family scale waste generators, and for
them to acquire a commitment to the application of the "zero waste" paradigm as the maximum
development objective.
(b) Establish real (operational) and not only legal or discursive responsibility of the local
governments in the separation, collection, reclassification and recycling of hazardous, non-
recyclable, electronic and industrial waste based on the zero-waste approach.
Operational aspects:
• Implementation of a permanent environmental education campaign in public and private
spheres.
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 181
• Specific diagnoses for each community quantifying and documenting the type of solid
waste generated by location. Creation of reduction goals that ensure the gradual reduction
of solid waste reaching unsustainable destinations, and the elimination of garbage in the
open environment as well as the culmination of the zero waste community goals.
• Analysis of the patterns of product consumption and waste production for each locality.
• Assimilation of the principle of co-responsibility among the members of the selected
communities; generation of a critical mass of managers.
• Generation of binding agreements for government actors, large generators and the
population in general.
Components 1 and 2: Differentiated waste management in homes and small businesses. The
goal is to achieve correct management of the Differentiated Solid Waste (RSD) in all the homes
of the selected communities.
Operational aspects:
• Training each household in the community for the separation of solid waste according
to its nature.
• Extend the training to homes, small businesses and municipal collection points.
• Analysis of waste collection routes to improve the collection service of RSD, in terms
of efficiency, coverage and frequency.
• Establishment of Collection and Reclassification Centers by community.
• Acquisition of the trash collector vehicles to facilitate differentiated collection of
RSDs.
• Establishment of social benefit programs to price the community work by the
revenues of the Collection Centers.
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 182
• Determination of the optimal set of indicators and performance indices to evaluate the
results of the application of the program
• Liaison with recycling companies
• Transfer and differentiated disposition of solid waste.
Component 3: Legal responsibility for governments and large waste generators. The goal is the
to regulate large generators and the government agencies create Solid Waste generation
preventive measures during the full life cycle of the products that eventually become totally or
partially waste into sensitive environments.
Operational aspects:
• Government representatives must dialogue and formally assume commitments to
reduce the generation of waste.
• The three levels of government must generate binding policy instruments to monitor
compliance with the regulations and commitments acquired
• Large generators to make the necessary technological and commercial changes to
reduce the generation of waste and eliminate environmental externalities.
• Products and packaging are redesigned.
• Citizen oversight efforts should be designed for the above government functions
• Sanction should be applied to administrations that do not fulfill their functions.
Component 4: Modification of consumption patterns. The goals are
(a) To ensure that the local communities reject or eliminate toxic, non-degradable, and
non-recyclable products and packaging.
(b) To create alternatives to current consumption patterns with non-toxic, reusable, and
recyclable alternatives.
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 183
Operational aspects:
• It is required that businesses offer environmentally friendly alternatives whose prices are
adjusted to the economic reality of consumers.
• Counterweight actions to demote harmful habits with more traditional attitudes such as
the use of multiuse grocery bags or basket, consumption of fresh and natural foods, care
and reparation of material goods, clothing, footwear, appliances and furniture, to name a
few.
• Promotion and strengthening of productive activities that generate the products demanded
by society under the principle “polluter pays” and the one that conserves receives.
As in component 1, it is very important to incorporate the gender vision that women bring,
because in general they are the ones who decide the patterns of consumption and replicate them
in the education they give to their children.
Component 5: Reuse of materials and recycling.
The goals of this program are:
(a) Permanent adoption of compost generation techniques for reuses of organic waste;
(b) Create a change of culture educating consumers to care for their material goods for
the extension of its useful life and its reuse.
Operational aspects:
• Permanent training program in compost generation techniques (wells, vermiculture, etc.)
is required, since organic waste constitutes approximately 50% of the waste in the region
according to SEMARNAT.
• The revaluation of organic waste as soil recovery and fertilizer recovery is required. In
the case of urban areas where more population is concentrated, projects can be generated
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 184
for the use of organic waste from large generators, such as markets, supermarkets and
restaurants. This waste can be used to accelerate the fertilization and soil creation on the
mangroves
• Community training to generate a critical mass of suppliers of repair services, for
clothing, footwear, electronic devices and household appliances.
• Community training to generate caring behaviors and prolonging the useful life of
products and goods, counterbalancing production practices and stimulating consumption
based on perceived obsolescence.
• Oversight of recycling companies to improve regulation of their activities to ensure
correct and sufficient recovery of waste materials.
• Economic stimulus for activities based on the repair and reuse of waste products and
materials.
Component 6: Adequate final provision and sanitation
The goals are
(a) "Zero Waste" achievement
(b) Restoration of environmental quality of sites contaminated by solid waste.
Operational aspects:
• Influence all the aspects of waste generation on the community in order to prevent
garbage from returning to the ecosystem in a harmful way, the goal being to reach the
generation of zero garbage.
• Consolidation of a culture of good waste management and a moderation of consumption
patterns.
• Regulatory adjustments to improve current solid waste regulatory framework
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 185
• Invest resources for the development of diagnostic studies and monitoring of waste
generation and management by location.
• Invest resources in training programs and environmental education on a regular basis.
• Acquisition of containers for the differentiated management of waste.
• Invest in the renovation or adaptation of the trash collector vehicles for differentiated
waste management, which must be accompanied by the training of the personnel who
collect and dispose of the waste at the final destination sites.
• Create infrastructure for the differentiated management of waste in the final disposal
sites.
• Construction of collection centers for each location.
• Organization of community level waste managers of all areas supervising achievement of
proper waste management.
• Program to clean up contaminated sites, and elimination of clandestine basins. This
sanitation includes but is not limited to water bodies, roads, gaps and beaches. Sanitation
includes the installation of solid retention infrastructures that impede their passage to
water bodies, especially those where fishing and aquaculture activities are carried out for
human consumption and in the areas closest to people's homes.
• Activate the “polluter pays principle”, not only through legal actions, but through
repudiation and social sanctions (for example, by not consuming products) of those
commercial factories that generate and dispose waste illegally or incorrectly.
• Technical studies monitoring sanitary landfills.
• Create strong links with the academy and private sectors dedicated to technological
innovation for the development of innovative solutions.
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 186
• Instrumentation of the “polluter pays principle”
Adaptation measure general objectives: The general objective is to design a system of
management of domestic and commercial solid waste management for the communities of the
Carmen-Pajonal-Machona Lagoon System. The particular objectives are:
(a) To develop a culture of low generation and good management of solid waste;
(b) To develop solid waste management capacities for products cradle to dead;
(c) To reduce the problems of contamination by solid waste by improving the well-being
of communities and environments of CPM ecosystem in the face of modeled climate change
scenarios.
Project justification: Current levels of contamination by solid waste as observed in the field
report and subsequent analysis of environmental conditions of the socio-ecological system as
shown in the first vulnerability study. Climate change scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 and their
respective increases in temperature, precipitation, and SLR were considered in the design of this
adaptation measure. The rise in temperature will be a very detrimental factor for the CPM lagoon
system, as it will accelerate the processes of decomposition and degradation of materials, leading
to excessive organic matter and anoxic conditions in water bodies. Sanitation actions in current
illegal open dumps are extremely necessary in order to avoid the emission of unpleasant odors,
methane gas, and the proliferation of harmful fauna and vectors. However, with the correct
management plan it is likely that this increase in temperature can be turned into an opportunity to
accelerate the production of compost both in homes and at the municipal level helping the
creation of soil and nutrients for the mangroves since less intervention will be required to
accelerate the decomposition of organic matter. This adaptation measure can be used both on a
small scale (for example for the payment of ornamental plants or family gardens), or for the
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 187
massive filling or leveling of mangrove lands.
Future intensity of precipitation can become also another climate change related
opportunity since high level waters may contribute to the removal of waste from the study area.
When garbage accumulates on river banks, beaches, dunes or substrate depressions, it becomes a
perfect environment for the proliferation of vectors carrying dangerous diseases such as dengue
and malaria. It also becomes a home for rodents and other animals that transmit rabies and severe
infections. According to the National Institute of Geography and Statistics (INEGI) the more
than 300 localities related to the Carmen-Pajonal-Machona system are located at the end of
major rivers such as the Usumacinta and the Tonalá functioning as natural sinks for the waste
dragged by the rivers many kilometers around. The study area could be considered a large dish
with a perfect waste and leached broth, a situation that makes its management urgent.
Replicability: This project could be replicated in each of the rural communities of the lagoon
system and could evolve at a regional, municipal, and even state level due to the great problem
of waste management that is presented.
Action plan: The implementation of components 1 and 2 depends to a large extent on the actions
of components 0 and 6. The design assumes that the components can be worked simultaneously
such as education and awareness of private and government actors at any time. Pursue of new
technological alternatives in support of government, academic, civil society and private
institutions dedicated to technological innovation can also be implemented continuously.
Consumption patterns and lifestyles of localities within the Tonalá and Río Usumacinta basins
may also be modified concurrently to other adaptation measures.
Monitoring Plan: Integration of the results of the monitoring and diagnosis of the problem are
recommended every six to twelve months. It is recommended the integration of a committee to
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 188
develop a waste observatory system. This committee will act autonomously but will have the
capacity to receive government and private resources, to redistribute among managers of all the
spheres, and that makes public the advances and delays in the matter, actively involving the
citizenship within members of the CPM communities.
Cost: The approximate cost per community is $3,500 Mexican pesos for brigade, per month for
the implementation of economic incentives phase 1, lasting 1 month. For long term or permanent
brigades (maximum 3 trainers-supervisors per community) the estimated cost is $36,000
Mexican pesos per year. The other costs are very variable and require field work for refinement,
according to http://www.sagarpa.gob.mx/desarrolloRural/Documents/fichasaapt/Lombricultura.pdf,
• Gradual and permanent reduction of organic waste and its constant revaluation;
accessed
January 2016.
Adaptation measure impacts: The expected impacts of this measure range from positive to the
most outstanding socio-environmental benefits expected such as
• Use of 100% of organic waste;
• Elimination of pollution sources (dumps);
• The subsequent reduction of the risk related to diseases associated with harmful fauna
that proliferate in clandestine landfills;
• Decrease and eventual control of solid waste pollution in beaches, mangroves, dunes and
roads;
• Environmental benefits for the fauna currently affected by the presence of solid waste in
its habitat;
• Decreased contamination of groundwater by leachate filtration;
• Generation of employment due to the stimulation of trades dedicated to the recovery and
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 189
prolongation of the useful life of goods and products (elevation, clothing, household
appliances);
• Advancing of knowledge and technology thanks to diagnostic studies and monitoring
instruments;
• Recognition of the gender perspective and assessment of the work;
• Implementation of monitoring programs, among others.
Community consultation: It is recommended to consult with strong local environmental
agencies and NGOs such as, but not limited to, the Mexican Network of Environmental
Management of Residues (Remexmar), with the social representatives of each community, and
with the municipal authorities, directly related to waste management, public works and waste
collection services.
Further Readings:
• Aguirre-Alcalá, J. J., Ahuja-Hernández, D. E., Hernández-Saurett, A., López-Leal, L.,
Méndez- Manzanilla, J., Temoltzin-Córdova, M. M. 2009. Evaluación Social del
Saneamiento del Vaso Cencali en La Ciudad de Villahermosa, Tabasco. Centro de Estudios
para la Preparación y Evaluación Económica de Proyectos (CEPEP).
• Armijo De Vega, C. Ojeda-Benítez, S., Ramírez-Barreto, E. y Quintanilla-Montoya, A. 2006.
Potencial de reciclaje de los residuos de una institución de educación superior: el caso de la
Universidad Autónoma de Baja California. Ingeniería 10(3):13-21.
• Barba, X. 2010. Gana concesión de relleno la Promotora Ambiental.
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Adaptation plan mangrove management
Adaptation measure description: Adaptation measure mangrove management plan with
innovative strategies. The adaptation measure proposed is a Mangrove Management Plan to
preserve the critical environmentally sensitive areas of the Carmen-Pajonal-MachonaLagoon
System in a delicate balance with the anthropogenic needs of the region. The mangroves
surrounding this lagoon contain ecologically sensitive areas of international importance because
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 191
are used as bio-corridors by the fauna of the region. Some of them are patches of Mangrove with
a very high tree density that serves for connectivity among environmentally rich patches. The
mangrove plan also included several management options, for preservation and rehabilitation to
take care of the environmental needs of the system while it also dedicates some other areas that
have lost precious environmental attributes to undergo reforestation and be producers of timber
and honey. This mangrove management plan and the land use plans were drafted in response to
the present and future needs of the community and the CPM lagoon system as a socio-ecological
system of interrelated needs. The mangrove management plan proposes state of the art
innovations to help the mangrove to adapt to the future impacts of climate change. Measures
such as bio-fences slow down erosion and increase sediment deposition at the edge of the
mangroves, to help it migrate inland and to restore the areas of the Mangrove devastated,
depleted, and eroded within the last ten decades.
The mangrove forest is an ecosystem that harbors high richness of biodiversity and has
been considered one of the most productive environments worldwide. It is an organized forest
mass, where the distinct species of Mangrove trees grow in the form of bands responding to the
characteristics of the environment. This growth pattern is an adaptation response to the changes
in the environment, as the different types of trees can live in specific conditions of salinity,
temperature, and under different patterns of inundation periods. Most mangrove trees grow in
brackish environments exposed to periodic flooding. However, these environments will be
drastically affected in the future by climate change and sea level rise increasing the time of
inundation until the point where the trees lose the ability to survive. The mangroves trees have
developed adaptations that allow them to live from environments of muddy, anoxic soils, to
environments with high salt concentrations. Mangrove trees are capable of adapting to extreme
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 192
conditions of shortages of fresh water as their leaves can eliminate excess salt. The mangrove
will survive the projected changes in rain patterns and temperature predicted under the Climate
Change scenarios prepared under the World Bank’s vulnerability analysis.
However, one factor seriously limiting mangrove growth in the future and being able to
kill the mangrove trees on the CPM under future SLR conditions is the longer inundation periods
reached for +1 m of SLR. The inundation period under those conditions is considered as a
tipping point for the system. The inundation period (period of time the mangrove roots remain
under water) is directly related to the height of the substrate and the rise in sea level at the
location of the tree.
The mangrove forests are a critical area in the coastal ecosystem, not only for their
environmental value in the carbon cycle , but also for their value as a natural “first physical
barrier” against extreme weather events such as storms and/or hurricanes. The effects of extreme
events will be amplified in the future due to climate change. The anthropogenic deforestation
adjacent to existing centers of population, and the erosion of the coastal margins due to natural
erosion worsen the future condition of the mangroves. Mangroves are also temporary habitat
during critical times of reproduction and serve as nursery areas for various animal species of
ecological and economic interest. These sites are in fact important and complex networks of
habitats used by many organisms, as feeding areas, refuge, and biological corridors for the
migration of numerous species. Mangrove forests play a fundamental role for humans, as they
ensure the sustainability of regional fisheries and serve as spawning and nursery areas for species
such as shrimp (in its juvenile stages), oysters, mussels, mule paw, and mojarra fish among
others.
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Status of the problem: The current conditions of the problem are described in detail in the
"Product B - Diagnosis of the current situation of the wetland - Report of the current state of
conservation of ecosystems" (Avendano et al, 2016).The historic literature research mentions
four types of mangrove for the CPM area, but in the 2014 field work only three species of
mangroves were observed (red mangrove- Rhinophorid , black mangrove or prieto mangrove –
Laguncularia racemosa, and white mangrove -Avicenna germinans). The presence of the
mangrove botoncillo (Conocarpus erectus) was not observed, however, previous work on the
area by other authors such as López-Mendoza (1980) and Rzedowski (1983, 2006), documented
its presence in 2006.
The analysis of satellite images from the period of 1999-2015 denotes the loss of a large
extension of the mangrove forests This significant reduction of natural coverage is due to the
substitution of mangroves by agricultural practices and the deforestation as the result of the
illegal use of the mangrove wood as construction material. Even the edges that are in natural
condition seem affected by erosive patterns, as the seedlings and seeds are minimal in the coastal
margin. The constant floods, the development of marshy areas, the increase of the tide range, the
increase of SLR and the subsequent coastal erosion of the margin of the lagoons, cause there to
be little to no fixation of the seedlings and seeds, so the attachment of the seeds to the current
substrate do not develop.
This results in the collateral loss of biodiversity and fragmentation of habitats (see the
"Report on key sites to implement adaptation measures, Part B: analysis document of biological
corridors and priority areas for ecological rehabilitation" of this project in Avendano et al.,
2016).
The need to develop a management plan for the rehabilitation of the mangrove forests of
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 194
the Carmen-Pajonal-Machona lagoon system is based on the need for ecological restoration and
recovery of the ecosystem; it is also intended to counteract the negative effects of changes
accumulated in the future. This work proposes a replanting strategy to re-establish the mangrove
margins and help the natural migration patterns move inland and to higher ground to increase the
natural resilience of the mangroves to adapt to future climate change conditions and to increase
the climate change resilience of the local population by securing food and economic wellbeing
with the sustainable utilization of some areas for timber and honey.
Adaptation measure description: Current government management policies for mangroves are
focused on the veto of resources during some periods of the year, designated as “closed seasons”.
However, several workshops and working groups of experts on mangrove management have
concluded that environmental laws regulating or "protecting mangroves have created a legal
regime in which the proliferation of often overly restrictive or contradictory regulations
practically impede the enforcement of the law and make the work of government agencies with
jurisdiction over mangroves very difficult to implement”. In response, this project proposes a
strategy to promote the restoration of degraded ecosystems and threatened species in the
Carmen-Pajonal-Machona lagoon system, using techniques that have proven successful in other
parts of the world, not based in simply restricting the access to the mangrove resources but based
on a simultaneous combination of principles of adaptation. Community-based adaptation, in
combination with forest and ecosystem adaptation are preferred over the restrictive approach of
“closed seasons” and the criminalization of the mangrove utilization. Neither the total
preservation/conservation, nor the “closed season” practice guarantee the restoration of the
mangroves during those seasons.
The principles for community based mangrove management directly involve local
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communities. This strategy has proven to be more efficient and to be easier to implement than
the policies of conservation/preservation as imposed by the government because the
communities acknowledge their wellbeing depends directly on the health of the ecosystems and
their services, since their livelihood depends on the coastal ecosystem.
Successful models of adaptation and conservation strategies that could be applied
successfully in the lagoon CPM system were located. Based on models such as those proposed
by the Mangrove Action Project (MAP), an active strategy for the long-term conservation of
mangroves is developed with five strategic axes: education, advocacy, sustainable community
development, conservation, recovery, and collaboration networks.
Adaptation measure objective: The vision of the Carmen-Pajonal-Machona lagoon system as a
managed protected area is ambitious. The vision for this area goes beyond being a conservation
area in which only wildlife is benefited and scientific knowledge about the environment and
environmental services is generated. It envisions a protected natural area with mixed policies,
which simultaneously fortifies the health of the lagoon system and the social process in harmony.
This entails an understanding of the social reality of the people, the skills and tradition of the
local communities and its relationship to wildlife, as well as the political and economic climate
of the region.
Under this conceptual framework, the proposed measure has the following objectives:
(a) Reverse the fragmentation of mangrove habitats by improving their connectivity at
different scales: local, meso, and regional.
(b) Minimize current and future impacts, including those due to the effects of climate
change, and the rise in sea level.
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Adaptation measure justification: Among the habitats of the coastal zone, mangroves are among
the most vulnerable to the effects of the increase in sea level due to climate change. The
probability of adaptation of the mangrove depends strongly on the ratio of sea level rise versus
the change in elevation of its substrate. The contribution of coastal sediment in combination with
coastal processes and anthropologic interventions can help to elevate the level of the substrate
and help the mangrove to survive. Because mangrove ecosystems are very dynamic, the ability
of these forests to migrate inland is considerable. The mangrove will tend to adapt by expanding
laterally and migrating inland in search of higher elevation to reduce the inundation period its
roots will experience. However, the anthropogenic interventions have made the mangrove areas
more vulnerable where their growth inland is limited due to natural obstacles, marked gradients
of topography and a lower contribution of sediment, or anthropogenic alterations which will
imply that the accretion of the mangrove will be insufficient given the rate of increase in sea
level. The distribution of the mangrove and the occurrence of the different types of trees and
different species that make up the mangrove occur in an organized distribution perpendicular to
the coastline and along bio-corridors. The speed of mangrove migration is determined in large
part by the distribution of tree species and the biodiversity it contains. This project focuses on
increasing the resiliency of the mangrove by boosting its health in areas of biological
significance such as the interior edges of the lagoons, areas protected by the sandy barriers, areas
associated with deltas at the mouths of rivers and streams, as well as large flood areas with the
presence of a succession of sea grasses with distinctly marine influence.
Replicability: The lagoon system presents diverse types of environmental problems that are very
typical of environmentally abused areas. The techniques here suggested are highly replicable in
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several areas of the country. The following techniques may be replicated at various stages and
different areas of the mangroves to achieve environmental goals.
a) Restoration. In areas of anthropologic interference, it is necessary to restore the
ecological equilibrium of the ecosystem. Ecological restoration is the process of helping
to restore an ecosystem that has been degraded, damaged or destroyed by studying the
structure, composition, and functioning of the degraded ecosystem in comparison with
the areas of the mangrove that are best preserved. The goal of ecological restoration is
recommended in mangrove areas that have been deforested by land use change and by
other anthropologic activities directly affecting the areas surrounding the three main
lagoons (Carmen, Pajonal and Machona).
b) Rehabilitation. The rehabilitation goal focuses on the rehabilitating the structural or
functional elements of the deteriorated ecosystem, increasing its productivity to the point
that is not only self-sustainable but to the point where it can provide environmental
services to the community. Through the application of different cultivation techniques its
productivity can be increased and accelerated. These techniques could also improve the
density and speed and change the direction of the growth, helping the mangrove in
migrating inland in response to the increased rate of sea level rise.
c) Recovery: The goal of ecosystem recovery aims to return the utility of an ecosystem even
without having as a reference a pre-disturbance state. Under this policy, an ecosystem
which has been degraded is replaced by another productive ecosystem, but does not lead
necessarily to the original ecosystem. The goal of recovery may include techniques such
as stabilization, aesthetic improvement and, in general, the return of land health to what
would be considered a useful purpose for the community.
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d) Re-vegetation: The goal of re-vegetation, which is usually a component of recovery,
could mean the establishment of only one or a few plant species instead of the restoration
of the original communities and structures of the environment. Re-vegetation could be
the goal for mangrove areas that are damaged by deforestation or that suffer (or will
suffer) from erosion.
We could also use a combination of re-vegetation and recovery goals for the areas of the
lagoon that have been designated as a mixed-use biological corridor, improving the health of the
mangrove and providing communities with a certain stock for use.
Action plan: Identification of key areas for implementation of adaptation measures. Following
the findings of the vulnerability analysis report “Identification of key sites to implement
adaptation measures; Part B: analysis document of biological corridors and priority areas for
ecological rehabilitation” the mangrove management plan will be focused in two key areas to
preserve and if possible to enhance and protect.
a) Multiple-use biological corridor, and
b) Biological corridor for wild life.
Three different strategies and design recommendations can be used on those corridors to achieve
goals of biological function improvement: recovery, rehabilitation and restoration.
a) Recovery, rehabilitation and restoration of deforested areas of the mangrove:
Recovery is proposed for mangrove areas that are damaged or that suffer (or will
suffer) from erosion when the water level rises, both on the banks of the lagoon body
and on the back of the lagoon body that will suffer flooding and erosion caused by
marine intrusion progresses because of sea level rise and subsidence in the area. The
policy of recovery will also be implemented in the areas of the lagoon that have been
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 199
designated as part of a mixed-use biological corridor, where the goal would not only
be to improve mangrove health through reforestation, but also to reach enough
density to provide the communities with a certain stock for use.
b) Rehabilitation could be combined to help the mangrove migrate inland in response to
the increase in mean sea level once the recovery goal has been reached both in the
erosion buffer areas around the biological corridor for wildlife and for high-density
areas (use) in the multipurpose corridor. To achieve this objective, common
techniques of reforestation and stabilization of the margin of the mangrove forest can
be used, but intensified on a sufficient scale to anticipate the effects of climate
change. There is a technique of common use in the channels of rivers and lagoons that
suffer from the usual processes of erosion and sedimentation as part of their natural
dynamics. Rehabilitation of the riparian vegetation effectively protects the banks and
dunes from erosion. The erosion and subsequent collapse of the embankments may be
avoided by the riverbank mangroves' stabilization effects. Through various
mechanisms the mangrove fixes the substrate while establishing itself. First, the roots
of the plants reinforce the stability of the banks by solidifying the substrate at surface
level (especially in the case of smaller roots). The riparian vegetation also facilitates
the drainage of the soils near the water mirror; this drainage reduces the possibility of
embankment collapses by increased liquefaction. The establishment of riparian
vegetation and the drainage of the excessive water on the embankments also helps to
support the weight of the surrounding land, and reduces the speed of the surrounding
water given its greater roughness. Slowing down the water reaching the mangroves
roots avoids accelerated erosion due to high-water velocities. There are three factors
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to consider when planning the stabilization of the mangrove shores:
• Limiting growth factors (physical or biotic): these slow down regeneration,
despite the presence of seeds or propagules. In these cases, the sediment is not
consolidated and the flow of tide and currents can be high. To minimize these, is
recommended to raise dykes with sedimentary material from the same site.
• Stressors: These are persistent or chronic, which destroy the advances of
regeneration and gradually deplete reserves. The erosion is greater and not only
does it not allow the settlement of the new regenerative plants, but it also begins
to erode the margin that the existing trees are rooted. This type of event is already
observed in the margin of La Machona lagoon, where important extensions have
been lost.
• Persistent effects: This is historical and therefore cumulative and acts as effects
and causes of the alteration. The physical or chemical modification of the soil, the
alteration of micro and meso-climate, and the local extinction of plant species or
key animals, are among the most frequent aspects of the persistent alteration.
Once these factors are recognized as present, it is necessary to undertake actions to eliminate
them and generate changes to allow stabilization and subsequent natural rehabilitation. The
strategies for the stabilization of the lagoon or riverbank margin suggested here are:
• Creation of hard borders: This can be carried out using sediment available as a
byproduct of dredging the lagoon system. Raising the edge and changing the
slope to a more acute angle allows the tidal flow to penetrate without
redistributing the material protected by the protective border. Mangrove seedlings
with sizes greater than 45 cm can be also sown to stabilize and harden the borders.
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• Creation of protective breakwaters: This can be done with the waste material from
the current aquaculture activities, e.g. oyster shells. These shells have been used
successfully to increase the area of mangrove habitat in other lagoons creating
natural breakwaters.
• Bio-fences: Other material present in the site may also be used to build bio-fences
with fallen trees, creating breakwaters that minimize the current and encourage
sedimentation. Bio-fences are unlike typical rock breakwaters, and instead can be
structures made with mangrove trees.
• Reforestation of submerged riparian and aquatic vegetation: This proposal is
expensive and can be generated through aquatic plants present in other lagoon
systems of Tabasco, to create an aquatic nursery that allows the plants to grow
sufficiently. In Florida, reforestation programs for submerged aquatic vegetation
have been carried out using wooden structures with good results.
• Reforestation with associations of fast growing communities using fast-growing
plant species that are associated with mangrove ecosystems. For example, the use
of halophytic herbs.
c) Restoration is proposed in mangrove areas that have been deforested by
anthropogenic activity directly around the three main lagoons (Carmen, Pajonal and
Machona). The reforestation will be done with already acclimated seedlings (4
months old), with an average height of 35 to 40 cm, with a density of seedlings
between 1.5 and 2 m apart. The activities suggested for the restoration of the
mangrove are:
• Creation of inland flood channels: Previous case studies have shown that using
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channels to control the inflow and outflow of water for ecological restoration has
been a success. To design the channels, besides knowing the frequency and
amplitude of tides, the time of residence of the water, and the speed and intensity
of winds and currents, it is necessary to survey the micro-relief of the area, and
test the spectrum of salinity, nutrients, pH, and potential of oxide-reduction of the
interstitial water. Based on the specific characteristics of the terrain, the number
of channels and the location of the channels should be determined to regulate the
water flow. By graduating the slope and size of the embankments, we can form
main networks and secondary networks of channels that may be opened and
closed with interim compartmentalization to redirect the water through the terrain,
enlarging or reducing the time of residency of the water on the system and the
roots’ inundation period. Channels of water control can also be used to expand the
mangrove growth in the desired direction helping the mangrove to colonize and
stabilize new colonies in higher inland substrate to protect it from the harming
effects of sea level rise. With the help of the channels the plants will be more
resistant to erosion and to the long hydrological periods during the flood season.
Also, the very existence of exterior mangrove plants compacts the sediment and
avoids erosion at the edge of the mangrove, providing additional protection to the
interior plants and allowing for higher density in the interior parts of the
mangrove. The accumulation of sediment due to new plants not only adds density
and resilience to the mangrove, but in the best cases, could produce accretion of
the substrate level to further reduce the effects of subsidence and sea level rise.
• Planting propagules versus seeding: an alternative technique recommended for the
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restoration of the mangroves of the Carmen-Pajonal-Machona is the artificial
distribution of propagules (hydrocora). Mature propagules are collected in
abundant areas of the site, and then are distributed in the disturbed areas to be
restored during high tide. Alternatively, "breeding" of propagules in a nursery can
be done to sow the ensuing seedlings in disturbed areas in random patterns, with a
space between 1.5 and 2 m between plants to improve diversity by mimicking the
natural distribution of mangroves. It is recommended to use the labor and will of
the local communities to carry out reforestation of the mangroves creating
temporary and permanent employment programs. NGOs can be enlisted to train
local communities in the care of nurseries, as expert mangrove rehabilitators and
as generators of ecotourism and other activities that can generate employment
sources and bring income to local communities.
• Restoration of natural channels. Cleaning the channels and widening them where
required. Slow closing of artificial channels whose drainage affects the mangrove.
Eliminate landfills from shrimp farms and others, as a source of contamination
and cause of mangrove deterioration. The restoration process must contemplate
the execution of actions that entail the restitution to the system of ecological
conditions similar or close to the original ones. The planting of mangrove
propagules should only take place when there are no chances of arrival of
propagules by natural means. The restoration process must monitor its
development and evolution over time (monitoring).
d) Capacity building. In addition to the ecological components, this adaptation measure
includes transversal components of local communities training and awareness raising
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campaigns for the communities that participate in this project. The communities get
educated on the environmental services provided by mangroves and about their direct
impact on social, economic, cultural and political activities at a national and
international level. This also benefits the communities that live near them. It is
necessary to implement training about its vulnerability to climate change and to
inform the communities about the actions to be taken to address or lessen those
impacts so they can continue to enjoy all environmental benefits. The plan will also
strengthen the capacities for the sustainable management of the Carmen-Pajonal-
Machona mangroves and develop a qualified human team for the optimal
implementation of an Environmental Education Program.
Monitoring: Selecting areas for rehabilitation must be done carefully, and pressures affecting
these areas must be eliminated as a priority to ensure the success of the rehabilitation and to
avoid that the new plants fail due to the same environmental pressures. These environmental
pressures must be monitored.
The key biophysical aspects considered for the selection of sites need also be tracked:
proximity of the rehabilitation site with other natural mangrove areas, the presence of natural
mangroves of the species that are to be rehabilitated, elevation of the rehabilitation site, the
frequency and duration of the intertidal flood, the tolerance of the species in relation to the
duration of the intertidal flood, and other hydrodynamic forces such as waves and tides that may
cause stress in the plants being seeded. The distribution of the seedlings (difference on
establishment can occur by a few centimeters), the hydro period and the salinity of the water
body as well as the interstitial salinity of the surrounding substrate need to be monitored as well,
as these factors influence the zoning and the degree of development of the mangroves. When the
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water has a salt concentration higher than 70% causes a decrease in the development of the
mangrove, and could mean its death. Although it is widely recognized that there are optimum
growth conditions of different mangrove species, in general, salt concentrations of 10 and 20%
allow for the healthy development of the different types of mangrove trees.
It is also important to monitor accretion occurring both naturally and artificially, and
track the regions with high sedimentation patterns that will soon reach the optimum topographic
levels (natural accretion) for the establishment of mangroves, and favor the colonization
naturally or with induced plantations in those areas. On the other hand, artificial accretions can
be induced with the help of some barrier against waves and currents (such as automobile tires),
which stimulate sedimentation and protect the seedlings by reducing the erosive energy of these
factors.
Basically, these same key factors used for design of adaptation measures should serve as
indicators of the system and be incorporated into the monitoring program. The monitoring plan
of the rehabilitation project should record progress and be reported in a way that allows
comparison with progress achieved by other mangrove managed areas, and how the current
rehabilitation process is compared with other designs. The monitoring protocol should start with
a zero-time monitoring report, to provide an initial point of reference and thus be able to assess
changes over time and measure specific goals such as: a) quantify recruitment, establishment and
early growth of young mangrove plants during an initial period after restoration (usually 3 - 5
years); b) identify in advance potential problems that inhibit the establishment of seedlings and
for this information to be useful in the process of corrections on the fly; c) increase the
participation, knowledge and understanding of the community throughout the rehabilitation
process; and d) serve as a baseline for future management strategies in mangrove areas.
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It is important to ensure that the monitoring is planned and budgeted from the beginning
of the project, in a comprehensive way, as to measure the fulfillment of the objectives of the
program, establish the criteria for success and clearly define the specific aspects of the site to be
measured such as temperature, salinity and a variety of water quality parameters, including
chlorophyll A and dissolved oxygen. The absence or presence of macro-vegetation should also
be reported. Wildlife samplings should be done between 20 and 25 months after the restoration
work has been completed in various parts of the mangrove. In the case of mangrove, the
expected fauna are macro-invertebrates, especially crustacean decapods, bivalves and fish. One
can also sample phytoplankton and zooplankton to establish if the restored mangrove is fulfilling
the function of hatchery and breeding site for crustaceans, fish and bivalves, which can be
verified with the appearance of larvae of these groups. This is closely related to the tide since
these larvae are adrift and are concentrated in the estuaries and mangroves because of the hydro-
period. Once the larvae counts are obtained, they can be compared with the values of the
reference site and the degree of restoration of the project and the environmental benefits
generated can be estimated.
Further Readings:
• Agraz-Hernández, C.M., 1999. “Reforestación experimental de manglares en ecosistemas
lagunares estuarinos de la costa Noroccidental de México”. Tesis doctoral. Facultad de
Ciencias Biológicas. Universidad Autónoma de Nuevo León. 132 p.
• Agraz-Hernández, C.M., Osti-Sáenz, J., Jiménez-Zacarías, C., García-Zaragoza, E., Chan-
Canul, C., González-Durán, L., Palomo-Rodríguez, A., 2007. “Restauración con manglar:
criterios y técnicas hidrológicas de reforestación y forestación”. Universidad Autónoma de
Campeche, Comisión Federal de Electricidad, Comisión Nacional Forestal. 132 p.
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 207
• Agraz Hernández, C.M., Osti Sáenz, J., García Zaragoza, C., Chan Keb, C., 2011.
“Estrategias de restauración de manglar en México”. Memorias del I Congreso Colombiano
de Restauración Ecológica y II Simposio Nacional de Experiencias en Restauración
Ecológica. Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Facultad de Ciencias. Departamento de
Biología
• Benítez-Pardo, O., 2003. “Creación de áreas de manglares en islas de dragados como apoyo
potencial a las pesquerías en la Bahía de Navachiste, Sinaloa. México”. Universidad
Autónoma de Sinaloa y Comisión Nacional de Pesca y Acuacultura, México, 30 p.
• Cintrón-Molero, G., Scnaeffer-Novelli, Y., 1983. “Introducción a la ecología del manglar”.
ROSTLAC UNESCO. Montevideo, Uruguay, 109 p.
• Flores-Verdugo, F.J., 1989. “Algunos aspectos sobre la ecología, uso e importancia de los
ecosistemas de manglar”. En: J. Rosa Vélez, J. de la y F. González Farías (eds.), Temas de
Oceanografía Biológica en México. Universidad Autónoma de Baja California, Ensenada,
México, pp. 22-56.
• Flores-Verdugo, F.J., Agraz-Hernández M., Martínez-Cordero, F.J., 1995. “Programa de
reforestación de manglares por el desarrollo acuícola de Aqua Nova Boca.
• García-Márquez, F., 1984. “Topografía aplicada”. Editorial Concepto, México, 200 p.
• Lewis, R. R., 1982. “Mangrove forest”. En: Lewis, R.R. (ed.), Creation and restoration of
coastal plant communities. CRC Press, Boca Ratón, Florida, pp. 153-171.
• López-Mendoza, R. 1980. “Tipos de vegetación y su distribución en el Estado de Tabasco y
norte de Chiapas”. Universidad Autónoma de Chapingo. Centro Regional Tropical
Puyacatengo. Dir. de Difusión Cultural. México. 121pp.
• López-Portillo, J.A., Escurra, E., 1989. “Response of three mangroves to salinity in two geo-
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forms”. Functional Ecology 3: 355-361.
• Rico-Gray V.Y., Palacios, M., 1996. “Salinidad y el nivel de agua como factores en la
distribución de la vegetación en la ciénaga del NW de Campeche, México”. Acta Botánica
Mexicana34: 53-61.
• Riley, R.W., Salgado-Kent, C.P., 1999. “Riley encased methodology: Principles and
processes of mangrove habitat creation and restoration”. Mangrove and Salt marshes 3 (4):
207-213.
• Rzedowski, J. 1983. “Vegetación de México”. LIMUSA. México, D.F. 432pp.
• Rzedowski, J. 2006. “Vegetación de México. 1ra edición digital”. Comisión Nacional para el
Conocimiento y uso de la Biodiversidad (CONABIO). México. 504 pp.
• Reyes, C., Miguel, A., Tovilla, H., 2002. “Restauración de áreas alteradas de manglar con
Rhizophora mangle en la Costa de Chiapas”, Madera y Bosques Número especial, 2002:103-
114.
• Sánchez-Páez, H., Ulloa-Delgado, G. A., Álvarez-León, R., 1998. “Conservación y uso
sostenible de los manglares del Caribe Colombiano”. Ministerio del Medio Ambiente,
Asociación Colombiana de Reforestadores y OIMT. Bogotá, Colombia, 224 p.
• Sánchez-Páez, H., Ulloa-Delgado, G.A., Álvarez-León, R., 2000. “Hacia la recuperación de
los manglares del Caribe de Colombia”. Ministerio del Medio Ambiente, Asociación
Colombiana de Reforestadores y OIMT. Bogotá, Colombia, 294 p.
• Smith, S.M., Snedaker, S.C., 1995. “Developmental responses of established red mangrove
R. mangle L., seedlings to relative levels of photosynthetically active and ultraviolet
radiation”. Florida Scientists 58 (1): 55-60.”
• Siddiqi, N.A., Khan, A.S., 1996. “Técnicas de plantación para manglares sobre nuevas
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 209
acreciones en las áreas costeras de Bangladesh”. En: Field, C., (ed.). La restauración de
ecosistemas de manglar. SME y OIMT, pp. 157-175.
• Vose, F.E., Bell, S.S., 1994. "Resident fishes and macro benthos in mangrove-rimmed
habitats: evaluation of habitat restoration by hydrologic modification". Estuaries and Coasts
17(3):585-596.
Adaptation plan management of aquaculture practices.
Adaptation measure description: Sustainable management plan for local aquaculture. Bivalve
mollusks are relatively easy to cultivate, they have a wide range of salinity and temperature
tolerance as is shown by their wide distribution in waters around the world. There are many
regions in which bivalves occur naturally in amounts large enough for exploitation, but usually
introduced species (aquaculture) grow and mature better than native species. The most consumed
oyster in the world is Ostrea edulis, which is native to Europe, and second comes the American
oyster Crassostrea virginica and third, Crassostreagigasis also known as the Japanese oyster,
these three best known by their popular consumption (Zarain and Villalobos, 2012). Aquaculture
activities are popular in Mexico. The main oyster-producing states are Veracruz and Tabasco.
The present management plan is partially based on the Fisheries Management Plan sponsored by
INAPESCA 2012 for the Carmen-Pajonal-Machona Lagoon System (Carrillo-Alejandro et al.,
2012). Unlike the INAPESCA management plan, this document includes climate change
considerations, and introduces technological advances to achieve intensive aquacultures in order
to make the industry stronger and more resilient to upcoming changes. This plan emphasizes
two systems of semi-intensive larvae feeding, to improve the quality of the mature products in
comparison to that product extracted from natural banks. In the management plan here proposed,
specific considerations are made about the climate scenarios and challenges presented by global
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climate change for the sustainability of aquaculture activity as well as specific challenges the
CPM lacunae system will face in the future. One of the main challenges future climate change
will bring to the local aquaculture practice is the change on water conditions that will wildly
oscillate between a sweet water environment and a fully marine environment over the next
hundred years according to projections. Another important consideration will be the increase in
extreme precipitation events. With extreme precipitation events the water quality of the lagoon
deteriorates after receiving the river's discharge that is heavy in pollutants carried over from the
inland industry and, that in combination with the future higher air and water temperatures, will
favor the proliferation of pathogens and other organisms deteriorating the quality of the water
and competing for nutrients and oxygen in the water body.
Adaptation measure objective: The object of protection are the local communities linked to the
Carmen-Pajonal-Machona lagoon system (as a socio-environmental unit) who depend on the
American oyster fishery and will be affected by climate change.
Status of the problem: Future climate change scenarios present difficulties for the sustainability
of oyster farming at the Carmen-Pajonal-Machona lagoon system. Together with the excessive
capture and anthropogenic activities, the future increase in extreme rainfall events brought about
by climate change will deteriorate the CPM water quality diminishing the capacity of
aquaculture productivity. The need to carry out a management plan that allows the sustainable
management of the fisheries and promotes food security in the future is evident.
Action plan: Establishment of an initial conditions assessment for the local aquaculture activities
present in the area.
• Attain all minimum environmental requirements to qualify the area as an approved oyster
harvesting area. The Mexican Bivalve Mollusks Health Program establishes the
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following criteria for Sanitary Control of Bivalve Mollusks (BWSP) to qualify:
• Water quality. The bacteriological quality of all the stations in the harvest area
must meet the criteria for fecal coliforms
• Fecal coliforms in adverse conditions of contamination. The results of the median
or geometric mean of the number of particles per sample (NMP is its acronym in
English) of fecal coliforms in the water sample, shall not be greater than 14 per
100 ml, and no more than 10 per cent of the samples of water will exceed the
NMP of: (a) 43 NMP per 100 ml, in the series of 5 tubes; (b) 49 NMP per 100 ml,
in the series of 3 tubes; (c) 28 NMP per 100 ml for the series of 12 tubes; and (d)
31 CFU per100 ml for the MF test (mTEC). A minimum of 5 samples per year
should be collected under adverse conditions of contamination at each monitoring
point in the harvest area, and at least 15 freshly collected samples should be
considered, under conditions of adverse contamination, to calculate the geometric
mean and the 90th percentile to determine compliance with established criteria
• The location of the sampling stations must not be adjacent to the current or
potential sources of contamination
• Establishment of real time water quality monitoring system. All the previous aspects are
already contemplated in the plan, however there are no monitoring and monitoring
mechanisms that are easily accessible and in real time, for which the implementation of a
monitoring system based on geographic information systems is proposed to monitor
constantly the sanitary state of aquaculture of the system. This observatory can work
analogous to the "Playa Limpia" program (currently operated by the National Water
Commission), which gives a regular report of pollution levels present in the main beaches
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of the country and issues sanitary alerts. The monitoring of water quality must be
accompanied by analysis that relates water quality to extreme rainfall events and the
quality of the tributaries that reach the lagoon system, and that carry sediment and other
materials that contribute from the basin above.
• Establishment of aquaculture systems. The extraction of oysters from natural banks are
more prone to produce contaminated organisms and to be exposed to chemical agents,
accumulated in local sediments. Greater accumulation of contaminating agents occurs
usually in the sediment in comparison with the moving water masses. Exposure of the
aquaculture products to local sediment may reduce the quality of the product until it is no
longer viable for human consumption; therefore, it is necessary to promote strategies that
reduce this risk of contamination through the creation and implementation of remediation
plans in areas where levels of pollutants are elevated. Those plans should also respond to
projections of future climate change scenarios, addressing the increase in environmental
temperature and precipitation. This plan proposes the use of two intensive cultivation
methods that will provide the local fisheries with more capacity and resilience to
overcome those changes. There are two preferred systems for semi-intensive cultivation
of bivalves in the area: the system of "beds" and the "long line". These systems are
economic, they keep the organisms far from the bottom and their implementation and
operation is very simple. Both methods are explained now in further detail.
a. Beds. This system is suitable in places where the currents are not strong and the
differences in height between tides is low. The bottom should be strong enough to
securely fix bamboo or wood poles where trays are placed. The system consists
mainly of a support structure or table on which the trays of a size of 1.5 x 0.8 m
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are placed, made of wood that can be kept for extended periods under water
without suffering great deterioration. To protect the seeds from predators they are
covered with mesh-shadow or nylon mesh. It is preferable that metal objects such
as nails or wire are not used for their construction unless they are indispensable
b. Long line. The long line system consists of placing seed over a long line attached
to a float in the upper extreme and a weight or anchor in the other. The system
could be installed in depths from 1 to 3 m. mounted in the line cages built to
contain the organisms. The system is made of polypropylene or nylon rope 12 to
16 mm in diameter and 100 to 200 meters in length (main line). Said line will be
anchored to the bottom with two concrete blocks of 120 kg each. The main line is
suspended between 3 and 5 m deep by surface and submerged buoys. Small
weights (2 kg) are installed in the lower part of each crop so that they do not get
tangled and are always suspended.
• Seed collection. Intensive cultivation systems should be used to improve the quality of
the product, to achieve sustainable and economically feasible results and to improve the
chances of achieving sustainability projections despite future impacts.
• Seed production. There are some aquaculture permit holders in the Carmen-Pajonal-
Machona system, they are registered in the National Fisheries and Aquaculture Registry.
The industry currently relies on naturally occurring seeding, although there is a private
laboratory in Ejido San Rafael that carries out oyster induced spawning and first stages of
reproduction. This laboratory produces five million oyster hatchlings that are sold in the
states of Tabasco and Veracruz. However, fishing cooperatives, even those that only
engage in extraction, must seek to create their own seed production in the future, since
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this would favor the reduction of production costs, in addition to ensuring the continuity
of fishing activity despite the changes that can occur due to climate change and future
increase of anthropogenic pressures over the industry therefore is recommended to
implement a seed production laboratory. The production of seeds basically includes the
fixation of larvae in laboratories on independent particles of substrate to obtain post
larvae, using ground shells of 200 to 300μm. The seed should be from certified
laboratories with a size of 3 to 5 mm in general. The construction and operation of a full
scale mollusk production laboratory is expensive and varies in terms of design,
construction, operating conditions, operation, and production protocols for different
species. However, the project can get started with only the basic elements of operation in
the following areas: area for the production of micro algae, area for breeding maturation,
area for spawning of brood-stock, area for larvae, area for fixing, and area for pre-
fattening so that the production is increasingly profitable.
Adaptation measure objective: To design a management plan for the production and culture of
the Crassostrea virginica oyster in the Carmen-Pajonal-Machona lagoon system in Tabasco,
Mexico that guarantees the healthy development of the environment and the involvement and
training of local communities providing food and job security under future climate change and
anthropologic pressure conditions.
Project justification: The production of oysters in Tabasco is rooted in the culture of the coastal
localities of the state. There are fisheries and aquaculture developments in the area, and the local
habitants have the basic knowledge required for the construction and development of aquaculture
crops. This represents a great advantage to the area because the proposed measures can be
initiated immediately. The local knowledge about the installation of the systems, and the capture
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and sowing of oyster seeds for aquaculture purposes, allows the timely implementation of good
aquaculture practices, and the quick adoption of alternative species to be carried out in response
to the changes expected in the lagoon system due to climate change.
Replicability: Similar projects have been implemented both in the lagoon system and in other
parts of the Mexican Republic. The degree of success of each project is based on the quality of
the management of each project and the capacity to respond to environmental contingencies.
This project is designed at the lagoon level, however, the design of the beds, the long-line, or the
seed crops can be understood as replicable techniques to enrich several populations as the
practice grows and replicates successfully in different points of the region. This modular system
can be at the same time an advantage to adapt the design to future environmental changes
expected, allowing for small increments of change and responding even with a change in species
(from brackish to oceanic water growing) if the conditions of the lagoon would deem it
necessary.
Measures to prevent, compensate, or mitigate possible negative impacts: Sustainable
aquaculture requires constant training to ensure the viability of oysters. Constant training for
aquaculture techniques has proven to be very useful as a communication model in rural
communities, generating a strong sense of community and promoting education and awareness.
This tool can also be used to sensitize the communities surrounding the lagoon system to the
benefits of the proposed measures to reduce the damage caused by the impacts of climate
change.
The proposed topics to maintain the oyster production sustainability and to sensitize the
population about the future risks are listed below, and these topics will be replicated in each
locality, particularizing on the chosen culturing system, either long line or beds: Introduction to
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the crop, selection of participants, seed collection techniques, pre-fattening, fattening, harvesting,
crop safety, and climate change impacts and possible effects on the Carmen-Pajonal-Machona
Lagoon System and its fishing resources. The usefulness of the educational function is eminent,
as it tends to produce positive changes in the knowledge, attitudes and skills of the local people,
contributing to their personal and professional development (Insaurralde et al., 2012). It is
important that, in parallel with the training and sensitization of communities for aquaculture
purposes, they are also educated on climate change and the present and future effects that can be
expected in the region, in order to increase both their capacity for adaptation and their level of
awareness about risks associated with climate change.
Monitoring: Monitoring and regulation of pollution sources upstream; most of the sanitary
controls contemplated in aquaculture management plans are concentrated in the farming system
itself. However, it is important to consider the control of external sources of contamination that
reduce the pressure on the system, which refers to the discharges of domestic, commercial and
industrial waters. This requires detailed large-scale diagnoses that locate all sources of discharge
that affect the lagoon system (sewers, drains, latrines, pipes) and regulate, control and eliminate
them. This may involve the design of a specific adaptation measure for pollution control by
wastewater. Finally, Carrillo et al. (2012) recommend actions to ensure the conservation of the
oyster populations by carrying out the preparation of funds where the productive zone is
extended and the seed capturing is carried out.
Further readings:
• Carrillo-Alejandro, P., C. Quiroga-Brahms, M.R., Castañeda-Chávez, A.T. Wakida-
Kusunoki, E. Márquez-García, R.M. Loran-Núñez, F.R. Martínez-Isunza, J.J. Villanueva-
Fortanelli, F. Lango-Reynoso, E. Romero-Hernández, I. Galavíz-Villa, G. Galindo-Cortes, V.
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Zárate-Noble.2012. PLAN DE MANEJO PESQUERO DEL SISTEMALAGUNAR
CARMEN‐ PAJONAL‐ MACHONA, TABASCO. ISBN 978‐ 607‐ 7668‐ 06‐ 0. Editorial
SAGARPA. 480pp.
• Contreras, E. F. 2010. ”Ecosistemas costeros Mexicanos una actualización”. 1ra edición.
Casa abierta al tiempo. México. 514 pp.
• Gómez-León J., Lara O., y Romero C., 2009. Etapas para el cultivo de bivalvos marinos
(pectínidos y ostras) en sistema suspendido en el Caribe colombiano. Serie de Publicaciones
Generales Nº 25. Santa Marta, 36.
• Insaurralde, M. S., Maciel, J. L., Balbuena, E. D., Barreto, M. A., Vargas, M., Grondona, L.
N.,&Palaoro, O. R. 2012. Manual del extensionista. FCV-UNA.INTA.80.
• Vázquez-Sauceda M. de la Luz, Aguirre-Guzmán, G., Sánchez-Martínez, J. G., & Pérez-
Castañeda, R. 2011. Cadmium, lead and zinc concentrations in water, sediment and oyster
(Crassostrea virginica) of San Andres Lagoon, Mexico. Bulletin of environmental
contamination and toxicology, 86(4), 410-414.
• Zarain, M. y Villalobos, C. 2012. Manual de Operación y Manejo Biológico del Cultivo de
Ostión. ISBN 978-607-00-6115-8. Editorial Centro de Ciencias de Sinaloa. 51pp.
Adaptation plan agroforestry
Adaptation measure description: Agroforestry is defined as the simultaneous or consecutive
cultivation of an agricultural, livestock, or fish product with a forest component which can
produce its own commodities (such as wood, fruit, and honey) or simply provide ecosystem
services. Ideally, agroforestry systems should always maintain multi-functionality and a stable
diverse productive ecosystem. The adaptation measure of agroforestry consists of specific
recommendations about how to modify the growing of some popular crops in the area to make
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them more resistant to future extreme temperatures and how to modify some agricultural
practices to make the local communities' population more resilient health wise by farming of its
own crops and medicinal herbs to protect them from tropical illnesses projected to intensify over
the years. It is predicted that global warming will lead to a variety of physical effects that will
negatively affect agricultural production. Agroforestry may also make local communities more
resilient by providing job and food security, ameliorating the projected effects of the
anthropologic activities in the area. Local populations should be prepared for changes such as:
• The increase in seawater temperature, as well as sea level rise. These represent a threat to
agriculture in coastal areas, as changes to the pattern of surface and groundwater drainage
are predicted in addition to the intrusion of seawater into estuaries and aquifers and
salinization of agricultural soils.
• The loss of soil organic matter by heating; Higher air temperatures can accelerate the
decomposition of organic matter and affect soil fertility.
• An increase in average and extreme temperatures, as well as changes in rainfall regimes,
will lead to crop stress that will affect their phenology, especially in the key stages of the
agricultural yield. Certain crops will be pushed past their climatic limits, so they will
need to be replaced by other crops or more resistant varieties of the original crop.
Alternatively, farmers can create shady conditions that shelter and protect the plans from
reaching such a point.
• The change in climatic variability can promote, accelerate, and lengthen the reproductive
season for several species of insect pests generating a greater number of generations per
year and promoting the proliferation of plant diseases and the spread of pests to other
crops and regions leading to an increase in crop losses.
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• On the other hand, elevated carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere may
increase water-use efficiency in crops and considerably mitigate yield losses due to
climate change. However, it has been reported that increased absorption of CO² can
decrease the nutritional quality of the food (dilution of nutrients).
Agro-ecology, where multiple crop species are planted in tandem (polyculture) is a
strong alternative to the industrial agriculture model (where a single crop covers many hectares).
Monocultures are ill-suited to respond to the emerging trends of climate change. Furthermore,
industrial agriculture's use of monoculture planting for several seasons depletes the nutrients in
the soil, making fallow periods necessary and reducing efficiency. Some social movements argue
that agro-ecology, seen as traditional, rural, and indigenous, could slow down the advance of
climate change (Martinez-Allier, 2011). It is probably worth reassessing traditional technologies
as an essential source of information about the adaptive capacity of some farming techniques; the
pre-Hispanic techniques of the Yucatan peninsula are explored most deeply in this section.
To this day, some rural places in the CPM area continue to be associated with the
consumptive use of the mangrove forest as effective polyculture systems. Millions of small
farmers still practice traditional or indigenous agriculture techniques, which provide a
remarkable resilience capacity to agro-ecosystems in the face of continuous economic and
environmental changes. Small-scale agriculture contributes substantially to food security at the
local, regional and national levels. Particularly in Mexico, the National Forestry Commission
(CONAFOR) has implemented financial support for small producers in various areas of the
country, and the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock, Rural Development, Fisheries and Food
(SAGARPA) has published several manuals in support of the initiative of agricultural
alternatives as a measure of adaptation to climate change.
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An emblematic polyculture model in Mexico (and in the world) is the Mayan "milpa".
The "milpa" is one of the oldest and most widespread agricultural practices in the Maya region
(Nigh and Diemont, 2013) where cornfields (whose main crop is the corn Zea mays), are
associated with beans (Phaseolus vulgaris). In its more complex forms, corn is planted and
associated with not one, but several species on the milpa. More than 100 species have been
combined on milpas since the pre-Colombian era (Teran and Rasmussen, 1995). The best-known
association is what is called the "three sisters": corn, beans, and squash (Cucurbita sp.)
(Lewandowski, 1987). This association provides an over-productivity per unit area compared to
the monoculture of corn due to the synergetic effects of niches between crops. These species
have niches that complement and supplement each other in terms of nutrients, light utilization,
and efficiency in the use of available substrate. In addition, the roots of beans acidify their
environment by secreting organic acids and proteins, and thus increase the availability of
phosphorus for other crops (Li et al., 2007).
In many countries, the sectors of the population immersed in poverty still obtain a
significant part of their subsistence through the collection of wild plants which grow around
crops. These people collect edible leaves, berries, roots, tubers, and fruits in the bushes around
the villages. This foraging practice is an important strategy for the diversification of the basic
diet. During droughts or other times of environmental stress, many rural populations gather wild
plants as food for the family. For indigenous groups in the Mexican highlands, when their crops
are destroyed by hail or drought, wild species or "quelites" are the only alternative food source.
Quelites are very adaptable to the type of climate and the resources that the local subsoil
provides. Therefore, it is not necessary to care too much for the crop; it is sufficient to cut them
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at the right time. In addition to its high climatic resistance, "quelites" have a high nutritional
values therefore being an essential part of the Mesoamerican diet.
Adaptation measure objective: To achieve resilience to climate change through agroforestry.
Action plan: To use agroforestry as a strategy to adapt to climate change. One adaptation
measure to increase the resiliency of the crops to increased temperatures is to plant crops in
either natural or simulated forests instead of using the industrial model of cleared fields. Rural
societies residing in the tropics have simulated forest conditions in their agricultural land to
obtain the beneficial effects of forest structures. Farmers in Central America (including Mexico),
for example, have imitated the structure and diversity of the tropical forest by planting a wide
variety of crops with different growth habits combined with tree species. By conserving and
planting trees, farmers exert influence on their microclimate, because forest coverage reduces
temperature, wind speed, evapotranspiration, and protects crops from direct sun exposure, as
well as hail and rain. The presence of trees in agroforestry plots constitutes a key strategy for
mitigating the unpredictable effects due to climatic variations.
In 1978, the International Council for Research in Agroforestry Systems (now World
Agroforestry Center, ex-ICRAF) was created, which provides documentation services:
• Information on multipurpose trees, forage trees, as well as their uses;
• Studies and tools for the design of optimal agroforestry systems;
• Decision support criteria for the implementation of new agroforestry systems;
• Education and training programs.
The general objective of this measure is to increase the resilience of community
agriculture, and therefore of the population, to the effects of climate change and future
anthropologic effects, through the following specific objectives:
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• To improve the resilience of the communities of the Carmen-Pajonal-Machona
lagoon system in the face of climate change by proposing combinations of certain
trees and crops that are more resistant to extreme temperatures;
• To increase the food security of the communities of the Carmen-Pajonal-Machona
lagoon system by promoting the production of self-consumption crops through
agroforestry techniques to grow leafy trees and crops.
• To reduce the economic vulnerability of communities by promoting the
installation of agroforestry systems that can produce both crops for marketing,
together with timber trees considered as a savings bank for families in the
medium term.
• To provide a source of firewood and timber products through agroforestry that
allows a reduction of extractive pressure on the mangroves of the lagoon system.
• To reduce the vulnerability of communities of the lagoon system to tropical
diseases by choosing the medicinal species and insect repellents to be cultivated
with agroforestry techniques.
• To promote the sensitivity of the communities towards the care and forest
restoration of the mangroves of the lagoon system.

Project justification: The threat of climate change causes concern among the global community.
Scientists and decision makers know that climatic factors such as precipitation, temperature, and
seasonal variability are essential for the growth production and distribution of agricultural crops
(IPCC, 2014) changes in these factors are imminent. The predicted climatic changes are expected
to have far-reaching effects mainly in countries with tropical zones, such as the region in which
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the Carmen-Pajonal-Machona lagoon system is located. An increase in extreme rainfall is also
expected, causing crop damage due to soil erosion and, in some cases, salinization and flooding
when the sea level rises.
The consequences of the change in temperature and precipitation can be very profound
for subsistence farmers, and it is precisely in this field where large changes in productivity are
expected. Small-scale agriculture contributes substantially to food security at the local, regional,
and national levels, it is important to take measures to minimize the future impacts of climate
change and anthropogenic effects on food security.
Another opportunity: medicinal species that cure tropical diseases. The traditional
knowledge residing in local communities, the foundation of their culture, their relationship with
their environment, their beliefs and their myths are other opportunities for local populations to
abate future climate change effects. In general, a close relationship and balance exist between
these communities and nature, very important for the exploration and selection of medicinal
species and tools to promote health among the members of the community. This information
should be considered while searching for cures, especially for diseases where traditional
medicine has not yet given the best results, or is not available. This holistic medicine harmonizes
with the new trends of sustainable development. The knowledge of medicinal plants and their
healing powers are the result of the practice and experience of thousands of years of learning that
have been transmitted orally from generation to generation and are part of the culture of the
communities. Cultivation of medicinal species supports social, ecological and economic aspects
of the community (Ponze et al., 2005).
Farnsworth et al. (1985) refer to the existence of approximately 121 chemical substances
of plant origin that can be classified as important drugs for the pharmaceutical industry. These
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drugs have a wide range of therapeutic uses and are obtained mainly from about 95 plant species,
which could be adapted for cultivation and use in practically all countries. Of the 95 plant
species involved in the production of medicines, 39 are plants that originate in the humid tropical
zones of the world. This number highlights the contribution of American flora, cited in
pharmacopoeias of industrialized countries, and, although these have been poorly researched, it
means that there is an extraordinary potential for the future (Farnsworth et al., 1985).
Among the promising species to exploit is the Sparattanthelium amazonium of the
Herrzandiaceae family, for its active principles against malaria. This plant contains alkaloids
(aporfilinics) capable of reversing the resistance of the mosquito Plasmodium falsiparum to
chloroquine (pesticide). According to information from the Department of Health Research, the
Bolivian Institute of Biology of Health (IBBH) has conducted studies on Galipea longuiflora
(Rutaceae), a medicinal plant used by shamans for the treatment of cutaneous leishmania, a
tropical disease. The chemical study of this plant indicated the presence of certain alkaloids
responsible for decreasing the leshmanicicla activity. These alkaloids also showed activity
against Panosoma cruzi, the vector transmitting Chagas disease (Ponze et al., 2005). It is
estimated that by the year 2020, the world population will have reached the figure of 7.5 billion
inhabitants, of which 75% will live in developing countries, which today consume less than 15%
of the pharmaceutical market. We can suppose that this population mass will increasingly seek
the resource of medicinal plants to meet their health needs (Ponze et al., 2005).
Replicability: The measure "Agriculture practices to achieve resilience to climate change
through agroforestry" can be proposed to some extent in all the communities of the small coast
(including recommended area as a biological corridor for multiple uses), adapting the measure to
the specific needs of the key site where it is to be applied. For example:
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• In communities that already have backyard crops, this measure can add additional value
with medicinal varieties;
• In areas where there is a problem of pests, a combination of herbicides and repellents can
be planted;
• In areas where the soil is slightly salinized, salt-resistant species such as tamarind or red
mangrove can be selected, which also have healing properties.
The implementation of agroforestry systems in the communities of the Carmen-Pajonal-
Machona lagoon system aims to provide an agricultural approach to abate climate change
impacts, which is both sustainable and resilient. Furthermore, this agroforestry plan is also
designed to decrease the anthropologic pressure on mangroves. We offer the producers a range
of agroforestry solutions designed as adaptation measures during the pilot project. Assorted
designs and associations of species will be proposed according to the ecological conditions of the
area, the socio-economic conditions of the chosen community, and their interests. Shade trees
will preferably be multipurpose (shade, wood, or fruit production, microclimate regulation). The
production of wood can serve as a medium-term savings fund for producers who can use this
capital for investment or exceptional expenses. Crops may be basic grain, vegetables, or
medicinal plants. Crops will provide food security and eventually will be a source of regular
economic income. It is expected that the cultivation of medicinal plants can reduce the
vulnerability of the communities to diseases in this area, vector diseases in particular. To
counteract the effects of tropical diseases transmitted by vectors that are predicted for the future,
and the team compiled a list of medicinal herbs that counteract or prevent the symptoms of
tropical diseases by consulting books about natural remedies of various Mesoamerican cultures
that may prevent or ameliorate the symptoms of tropical illnesses forecasted to increase in the
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area as the climate changes . In addition, to counteract the effects of soil salinization, several
specific measures are proposed, such as:
a) Cultivation of agricultural species with high tolerance to salinity (such as tamarind, sugar
cane, mango, cocoa, pineapple, rice, barley);
b) Drip irrigation systems.
The Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources (SEMARNAT), through
CONAFOR, developed manuals of technology transfer for the establishment of Agroforestry
Systems in the state of Yucatán (CONAFOR, 2013). Sections and techniques displayed on the
aforementioned manual were chosen, due to the environmental similitude among habitats in the
Gulf of Mexico. Congruence between public policies on climate change and sustainable use of
natural resources and productive activities that sustain the regional economy were also a factor.
The original vegetation in the coastal plain of the Carmen-Pajonal- Machona lagoon was
practically eliminated due to the process of deforestation in Tabasco (Sánchez, 2005). Also, for
the sake of modernization, traditional agriculture in the state was replaced by agro ecosystems of
pasture, cocoa, banana, citrus, mango, family gardens and annual crops such as corn and beans.
The species of trees representative of the community are: ceibas (Ceiba pentandra), chipilco
(Diphysarobinioides), cocoíte (Gliricidiasepium), macuilí (Tabebuiaroseae L.) and mulato
(Burserasimaruba). There are some forest species such as cedar (Cedrelaodorata L.) and tatuán
(Colubrinaarborescens), as well as the aforementioned macuilí, chipilcó and cocoíte that are part
of the cocoa plantations.
Elements for the implementation of the measure: As a first approach to the identification of
areas suitable for agroforestry, the following should be considered:
• accessibility;
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• that it is a non-flood zone;
• the level of stoniness (the lowest possible, preferably); and
• that there are options to increase the area under cultivation of the agroforestry system.
Subsequent, prospection of the areas where the agroforestry system will be established.
It is required to know the available spaces and the characteristics of the soils to determine the
species that can be used. Once the areas for the establishment of the agroforestry system have
been defined; based on the technical criteria, it is recommended that decision-makers consider
the final selection of the areas for the participating producers and decide with them the species
that will be established based on the specific design of the system.
CONAFOR recommends an accommodation with a determined number of rows of plants,
interspersing forest, agricultural, and fruit species. Each row will be made up of a number of
individuals, depending on their characteristics and spacing, as well as the needs of the
agroforestry system. We recommend rows that have a west-east orientation to reduce the effect
of shade on crops. In addition, the delineation of the perimeter of the agroforestry system can be
established with a live fence of one or several species of multiple uses. If there are temporary
flood risks for some selected plots, we recommend implementing sowing practices on ridges to
avoid the anoxia of the crops (CONAFOR, 2011).
Measures to prevent, compensate, or mitigate possible negative impacts: The proposed
adaptation measure is itself a mitigation plan for the main anthropologic impacts on the area, and
also addresses present and future climate change effects on agriculture around the lagoon system.
The measure is proposed with a modular design, where it begins as a micro project from which
only positive results are expected because it will mitigate the effects of deforestation and
increase the resilience of local crops to climate change.
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Strict environmental controls are proposed, and monitoring plans are established so that
in case of secondary environmental damage, the project can be discontinued and the area can be
returned promptly to its initial conditions.
Monitoring program: Elements for the monitoring plan: The conditions in the SAF
(Agroforestry System) or in the SAA (Artisanal Agroforestry System) are dynamic. The
conditions change over time, so it is necessary to evaluate the system and the management plan
to check if it is meeting the objectives established in the project and if the available resources are
being used efficiently. Based on this evaluation, it will be possible to decide whether or not
changes need to be made in the design of the SAF or in its management plan.
In turn, it is possible that these goals will also change over time; in this case, it is
necessary to evaluate the plan to see if it fits the new purposes. In the long term, the system must
be evaluated from the point of view of its sustainability over time, considering ecological,
economic, and social aspects. For the evaluation of a system the following questions can be
considered:
• What is the situation of the plot compared to the initial conditions?
• What is the productivity of the system?
• What is the environmental impact of the SAF?
• Is the practice of the chosen SAF reproduced by other neighbors on the plot?
• In what percentage of the lagoon system could it be replicated?
In general, for the monitoring of a SAF, it will be necessary to have indicators and establish a
monitoring plan to continuously verify their evolution. These indicators should be chosen
according to the specific objective and the type of SAF selected, including for example: survival
rate of the trees planted, percentage of shade provided by the trees planted, rate of growth of the
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 229
trees, number of prunings, sale of wood, evolution of crop production (yield), among others.
The techniques of species selection, design, and management of family gardens are
usually traditional and well known to farmers; these can also be useful for SAAs. The general
principles of management tend to the efficient use of energy and the recycling of resources that
are in the system or very close to it.
To maintain fertility, the use of kitchen and animal waste is recommended. The
application of humus that can be obtained from nearby ponds, the use of green manures of
annual plants, the application of soil cover by using weeds and leaves, and the use of nitrogen
fixing plants are all helpful as well. The control of weeds can be carried out by tearing them and
leaving them on the ground for their decomposition; in that way, they contribute to an increase in
the amount of organic matter in the soil. For the control of pests, plastic or metal baskets or
bands can be placed around the base of the trees, to protect them from the attack of insects or
animals; however, this technique is expensive. The use of small barriers (rows surrounding the
plots in interspersed lines) with Gliricidia, lemon grass, and other species with insect repelling
properties helps in the control of pests. The use of insect and disease resistant varieties is
recommended. Other important aspects of the management of these systems are those involved
with planting times and awareness of when production peaks occur.
This influences the existence of surpluses of the orchard and its use that is to say if they
are commercialized or conserved. The time of production of commercial species and of home
use can also be determined by the existence of markets for the products of the garden.
The processing of homemade products (for example, jellies, sweets and fruit preserves)
increases their value and can transform the orchards into small family businesses, sometimes
with significant income. The same can happen when part of the orchard is dedicated to the small-
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 230
scale production of products for tourism or local sale, such as ornamental plants, medicinal
plants, and spices.
An alternative management of these systems consists of cutting timber trees in strategic
way; through this technique, they can provide more light to those annual crops that require it.
Over time, as the trees grow, the clearing closes. A management of this type allows the constant
mixture of annual and perennial species; a system can be created in this way with some aspects
of the sequential or migratory systems, but with greater stability and permanence as well.
Finally, as mixed home gardens contribute a large proportion to the family diet, planners
should consider the needs of a balanced nutritious diet, that is, provide basic needs of protein,
calories, minerals and vitamins with the correct proportion of vegetables, fruits, tubers, animal
protein and other complementary foods.
Further readings:
• Altieri M., Nichols, C. “Cambio climático y agricultura campesina: impactos y respuestas
adaptativas”. LEISA revista de agro-ecología. Marzo, 2009
• CONAFOR - Comisión Nacional Forestal, 2011. “Establecimiento de sistemas
agroforestales”. Coordinación General de Educación y Desarrollo Tecnológico. Primera
edición, 2011, pp. 52.
• CONAFOR - Comisión Nacional Forestal, 2013. “Sistemas agroforestales maderables en
México”. Noviembre de 2013, pp 146.
• Farnsworth, N., Akerele, O., Bingel, A., Soejarto, D., Guo, Z., 1985. “Medicinal plants in
therapy. Bull. WHO 63: 965-981.
• Gliessman, S., 1992. “Agro-ecology in the tropics: achieving a balance between land use and
preservation”. Environmental Management 16, 681-689.
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 231
• IPCC, 2014. “Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability”. Contribution
of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change [Field, C.B., V.R. Barros, D.J. Dokken, K.J. Mach, M.D. Mastrandrea, T.E.
Bilir, M. Chatterjee, K.L. Ebi, Y.O. Estrada, R.C. Genova, B. Girma, E.S. Kissel, A.N. Levy,
S. Mac- Cracken, P.R. Mastrandrea, and L.L. White (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press,
Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.
• Lewandowski, S., 1987. “Diohe'ko, the Three Sisters in Seneca life: implications for a native
agriculture in the finger lakes region of New York State”. Agric Hum Values 4, 76-93
• Li, L., Li, S.M., Sun, J.H., Zhou, L-L., Bao, X-G., Zhang,. -G., Zhang, F-S., 2007. “Diversity
enhances agricultural productivity via rhizosphere phosphorus facilitation on phosphorus-
deficient soils”. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 104, 11192-11196.
• Liebman, M., Dyck, E., 1993. “Crop rotation and intercropping strategies for weed
management”. Ecological applications, 92-122.
• Martinez-Alier, J., 2011. “The EROI of agriculture and its use by the Via Campesina”. The
Journal of Peasant Studies 38, 145-160.
• Nair, P.K.R., 1993. “An Introduction to agroforestry”. P. ISBN 0-7923-2134- 0 Library of
Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data.
• Nigh, R., Diemont, S.A.W., 2013. “The Maya milpa: fire and the legacy of living soil”.
Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 11, e45-e54.
• Teran, S., Rasmussen, C., 1995. “Genetic diversity and agricultural strategy in 16th century
and present-day Yucatecan milpaagricultura”. BiodiversConserv 4, 363-381.
• Tsai, S.M., Da Silva, P.M., Cabezas, W.L., Bonetti, R., 1993. “Variability in nitrogen
fixation of common bean (Phaseolus vulgaris L.) intercropped with maize”. Plant and Soil
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 232
152, 93-101.
• Ponze S.E., Gricel do Carpio T., Severo Meo C., 2005. “La medicina tradicional de los
tacanaymachineri. Conocimientos prácticos de las plantas medicinales”. La Paz: Fundacion
PIEB2005.
• Postma, J.A., Lynch, J.P., 2012. “Complementarity in root architecture for nutrient uptake in
ancient maize/bean and maize/bean/squash polyculture”. Annals of Botany 110, 521-534.
• Sánchez, M.A., 2005. “Uso del suelo agropecuario y desforestación en Tabasco 1950-
2000”.Universidad Juárez Autónoma de Tabasco. México.123 p.

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Chapter 5: Adaptation Pathways and Adaptive Plan
In the previous Chapter we have enlisted a large number of adaptation measures, organized
in bundles and presented into individual adaptation plans according to the adaptation measure that
they support. Each adaptation measure builds up to the general objective of making the Carmen-
Pajonal-Machona lacunae system more resilient to the impacts of climate change and to the
impacts expected due to the anthropologic activities by gaining some degree of control over the
unavoidable impacts such as sea level rise and beach erosion, by anticipating the problems and
proactively preparing the population to overcome them, by accelerating natural processes and
boosting the natural resilience of the system, and whenever necessary by developing coastal
infrastructure to slow down inundation, avoid saline intrusion soils contamination, or to regulate
the circulation inside of the lagoon to preserve the conditions of the environment favorable for
food and job security while continuing to guarantee the environmental integrity of the lacunae
system and its wetlands. However, we are faced again with the disjunctive of when, how and in
which order to implement what measures.
Coordinating the hundreds of possible adaptation actions to be implemented by adaptation
objectives, by different adaptation modules, or by time and resources available can be complicated.
This section offers a step-by-step analysis of possible adaptation pathways and the visualization of
different sequence strategies called adaptation pathways.
In the adaptation pathways technique, decisions about optimal sequencing of adaptation
measures are approached in small increments, are followed up by continuous monitoring, and are
reevaluated periodically to ensure more efficient use of the time, money, and community resources
available. The several possible adaptation alternatives can be organized into adaptation maps,
helping us to find the most strategic pathways for adaptation implementation. The adaptation
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 234
pathways approach used in this dissertation incorporates the concept of adaptation tipping points
(ATPs)—turning points, thresholds, and other indicators to serve as signposts guiding the
adaptation planning road—in substitution for static planning horizons.
There are four points along the decision-making path where the use of thresholds, triggers,
and tipping points is particularly beneficial:
1. To flag changes in the system.
2. To calculate the necessary time for interventions in response to change.
3. To time the initialization of a transition to a new adaptation measure.
4. To time the initialization of a transition to a new adaptation policy option.
Thresholds and triggers can be used to determine when adaptation measures need to be
implemented. When the possible solutions to the issue and the specific adaptation options have
been identified, thresholds and triggers are then used to determine when the options need to be
reassessed. After reassessment, the series of thresholds or triggers can be used to determine the
timing of the implementation of the preferred options. This may require a higher level of
adaptation considerations, weighing up specific costs and benefits.
When the cost of implementing adaptation measures exceeds their created benefits, a
change of policy may be required. For example, when the cost of coastal defense is unsustainable,
the policy of coastal management should move from protect to reallocate, accommodate, or
retreat. Before these types of decisions can be made, thresholds and triggers at the policy level
should also be established. Given that decision-making is an iterative process, it is possible that
adaptation thresholds and triggers are used more than once along the decision pathway. Using
thresholds and triggers also facilitates the implementation of adaptation measures by adding a
sense of urgency to the decision-making process by incorporating the preferences of society and
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 235
pointing to upcoming undesired thresholds. Thresholds and triggers may also be used to justify a
delay in the decision-making process in order to gain further knowledge and information on the
issue when no trigger or threshold is to be surpassed by this delay. As shown in Figure 28, for
example,the change of regiment may be the permanent transition of the coastal lagoon from a
brackish water environment to a full marine environment, and the different stages of the system
can be understood as seasonal transitions in the salinity of the water due to natural but reversible
processes like inundation during the rainy seasons or massive evaporation during the drought
seasons. The new knowledge acquired during the elapsed time may lead to better decisions by
reducing the uncertainty surrounding the issues.

Figure 28 Example of Management thresholds activated by changes on the system. Source:
http://oceantippingpoints.org/portal/guide/strategy-3-set-targets-and-design-monitoring

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Mapping Adaptation Measures Based in Tipping Points, Turning Points, Triggers and
Thresholds. We will begin then the process of describing the problem, defining the state of the
system, the impacts, and the effects of the adaptation measures in terms of tipping points, turning
points, thresholds and triggers to build an overarching strategy of implementation. In the previous
sections, we have found that the time of permanence of the sandbar is the main driver for the
timing of implementation of almost all other adaptation measures, we will begin by describing the
problem in terms of the variables that control the sandbar stability and then finding the tipping
points, triggers and thresholds that signal the evolution of the process. We will then extend this
analysis to find the variables, thresholds and tipping points that describe the stage of the system.
We also will describe the tipping points triggers and thresholds for each bundle of adaptation
measures that are affected by the breaking or closing of the sandbar. Finally I will present and
overarching analysis of tipping points, triggers, and thresholds showing how as the tipping points,
thresholds, and triggers signaling changes in the status of the sandbar are reached, they in fact can
be translated into triggers for the activation of other adaptation measures in anticipation of the
impacts of the sandbar breakage, or the alteration of the whole system (both, the lacunae system
and the local populations) when this fluctuates between a brackish environment to a fresh or fully
saline environment (changes of stem stage).
Problem statement
As sea level rise increases, the rate of sediment removed from the face of the beach
increases. The sediment in suspension is then redistributed over the face of the beach to preserve
the beach profile angle equilibrium, and part of this suspended sediment it is also transported by
the currents to the outside limits of the littoral cell (parallel to the coastline), to outside the
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 237
littoral cell, or beyond the depth of closure (transport transversal to the coastline), causing a
permanent loss of sediment on the system, which accelerates erosion as the sea level rises.
In addition to this gradual change, the more frequent and extreme climatic events projected
by the future climate change scenarios pose multiple episodes of sudden retrocession of the
coastline, from which the beach face recovers slowly but never fully. This reinforces the
accelerated threat to the beach width and bar stability. With time, this increases the level of effort
necessary to maintain the coastline in place, threatening the preservation of the sandbar and any
coastal infrastructure located on top of it or depending on it.
Coastal roads are expected to be severely impacted by SLR in the future. Under the best
case scenario, the decision-makers’ policy would be to maintain the beach baseline conditions
(protecting it from erosion) to preserve the current environmental condition and to ensure well-
maintained and safe coastal roads and infrastructure for the local communities. It is expected that
roads will close under extreme events, but only a limited number of road closures would be
acceptable per year before the quality of life, the food safety and the commerce activities of the
local population are considered at risk.
More frequent inundation also affects the mangroves, as permanent inundation will
permanently destroy the mangrove ecosystem.
The consequences of SLR risk create several possible physical, economic, and social
conditions that can be considered undesirable system stages. We can define several thresholds, to
signal the passing of the system to a different stage. Thresholds can be measure through (a) direct
impacts: sea level, tides, waves, currents, storm surge height, rate of sediment transport, beach
erosion, bar overtopping, road closures caused by inundations; and (b) indirect impacts: annual
budget for roadwork, annual cost of beach protection, annual cost of dune stabilization, economic
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 238
expectations about the level of environmental services of local fisheries, mangrove tree production,
agricultural practices, farming, etc.
Physical thresholds such as number of days of inundation of coastal roads, when associated
with policy outcomes, often are good indicators that a change is needed. When policy objectives
(such as maintaining safe coastal roads) are no longer met by adaptation strategies, a modification
or a change in the adaptation strategy is needed. When the adaptation strategy can no longer be
extended, enlarged, or somehow modified to achieve its objectives it is perhaps time for a change
in policy. For example, assume the local fishermen cooperative has determined that more than 50
days of road closures will be seriously detrimental to their safety and economy. According to SLR
predictions, the policy objective (fewer than 50 days of road closures) can no longer be met once
sea level rise reaches 0.5 m because the coastal road would be flooded several times per season, if
not permanently. The objective (well-maintained roads) would no longer be achievable (social
threshold safety) and when maintenance costs exceed the local government allocation (economic
threshold) for road repair it is perhaps time to consider a new coastal management policy such as
realignment or elevating of the roads.
Causes and consequences of sea level rise should be monitored, and projections revised
according to the methodology already established for monitoring erosion in coastal lagoons in the
original report to keep the analysis consistent. The results of the vulnerability analysis of the
stability of the sandbar in CPM and the identified main climate change impacts, pressures, and
change of system stages as a result of impacts and system response interactions are shown in Table
17 below.
The main threshold for the stability of the sandbar is the breakage or closure of the
sandbar in the lagoons, which can be identified via the vulnerability analysis of the stability of
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the sandbar; that is, the opening and closure of lagoon mouths due to accretion of the sandbar,
resulting in the closure of the lagoon by the year 2030, the later opening of the two mouths 75
years later, and the final irreversible transition of the lagoon to a bay environment by the
displacement of sand dunes and final breakage of the sandbar with the consequent damages to
coastal roads and infrastructure.
Table 17
Summary of DPSIR and Vulnerability Analysis for the Stability of the Sandbar
Vulnerability
Hot Spots
Main Issues
Consequences
Stability of the
bar
Coastline erosion, dune
erosion, and deterioration
The rise in sea level causes the energy of
the waves on the dunes, and these (and
the beach) are eroded.
Increases instability of the protective
sandbar.
Flooding and risk of bar
breakdown in extreme events;
expected increase in frequency
and intensity of extreme events
Flood vulnerability on some areas of the
sandbar can weaken the dune system
and allow ocean water to cross the
lagoon and flood certain areas of the bar,
affecting residential areas and roads.
The increase in extreme events (Nortes
and hurricanes) generates high-energy
waves, tides from storms, and rains,
which flood and erode the area.
High vulnerability of
infrastructure (roads, power
distribution network) and
coastal communities
The above vulnerabilities cumulatively
increase the instability and risk of
breakage of the bar, in particular during
extreme events.
Climate Change Impacts:
Temperature (increase in atmospheric temperature)
Temperature (increase in water temperature)
Precipitation (increase in frequency and intensity of events but not net volume change)
Extreme events (increase in frequency and intensity)
SLR and subsidence

Pressures:
Increased atmospheric and water temperatures, resulting in increased SLR
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Vulnerability
Hot Spots
Main Issues
Consequences
Increase of SLR, resulting in waves’ eroding higher areas of beach and dunes, changes in the
beach profile, and redistribution or loss of sediment
Dune and beach erosion, further weakening the sandbar that separates the lagoons from the
ocean, allowing saline intrusion, liquefaction, and accumulation of salt water in natural
depressions, degrading soils with salinization
More frequent and intense extreme events, further accentuating beach and dune erosion
More frequent and intense precipitation, increasing flooding, which will accentuate problems
of erosion, salinization, and damage to infrastructure
System States:
Sandbar closure
Sediment deficit
Sandbar openings
Dune erosion
Sandbar rupture
Coastal retreat
Impacts:
Sandbar rupture will cause a radical change in the lagoon’s salinity, water quality,
circulation, and sediment redistribution, and accelerate dune and bar erosion; coastal retreat
will increase the vulnerability of the lacunae system and the local communities living in the
area
Erosion of the sandbar and dunes will cause vegetation loss, deforestation, and further erosion
Deforestation will result in biodiversity losses and further damage to mangroves
Decrement of lacunae system productivity will affect fisheries, agriculture, and aquaculture
Response:
Sandbar will redistribute sediment to a new balance state
Sediment redistribution will occur until system reaches new equilibrium
Deforestation will cause regressions in the distribution of mangrove species

System states:
I characterize the system states by type of environment they can support given their water
conditions.
Stage 1: Estuarine environment. At the current stage, the CPM can be characterized as an
estuarine environment where brackish water is predominant due to the influence of both marine
and riverine discharges. At some point about 30 years in the future, a Threshold 1 event, closing of
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the lagoon’s mouth, occurs, ceasing the water exchange between the lagoon and the ocean and
forcing the system into a new stage, containing predominantly sweet water from the rivers. This
change is considered a new system stage because it results in a completely different environment,
supporting different species and representing a fully differentiated ecosystem.
Stage 2: Sweet water lagoon system. This new system stage will be maintained until a new
threshold event occurs, forcing the system into a different stage. The new event (Threshold 2,
breakage of the sandbar) will create two new lagoon mouths and reestablishing the water exchange
with the ocean, reversing the system to an estuarine environment of predominantly brackish water.
Stage 3: Estuarine environment again. This stage will be preserved until a new threshold
event occurs, forcing the system to a new stage. The Threshold 3 event, major riverine sediment
discharge, will cause the lagoon mouth to close again due to the excess of sediment brought by
river-flow discharge, interrupting the exchange of water with the ocean again and reversing the
system to a sweet water lagoon once more.
Stage 4: Sweet water lagoon environment again. This stage will be preserved until the next
threshold event. The Threshold 4 event, permanent breakage of the sandbar, will not only
reestablish the exchange of water between the lagoon and the ocean, but it will in fact make the
lagoon’s protective sandbar disappear, transforming the whole ecosystem into a new stage, a
marine environment, like a bay with predominantly ocean water.
Stage 5: Marine environment. This environment will be preserved until the presence of a
new threshold capable of forcing the system into a new stage. However, no Threshold 5 event will
occur because the Threshold 4 event, breakage of the sandbar, will be permanent. Events that
transform the system permanently into a new stage are known as tipping points.
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Thresholds
Important to understand is how future climate change (as a driver of change) may impact
each selected adaptation option; what main changes the system will experience; and what
indicators, triggers, thresholds, and tipping points will most accurately signal the evolution of the
process and correctly reflect the more important changes. Climate change impacts could be direct
(such as flooding, erosion of beaches and dunes, rising water levels, and drastic changes in
salinity levels, among others) or indirect (such as increases in operating or insurance costs,
noncompliance with specified levels of service, and decline in population protection, among
others).
A threshold describes a particular state or situation that, when reached, will make a change
necessary; for example, when it is no longer possible to protect the safety of an area by simply
maintaining current adaptation strategies. Usually thresholds are interrelated or interdependent. For
this reason, a well-thought-out and integrated combination of thresholds is best to use to
characterize the system and ensure a sound basis for policy decisions.
Decision-makers need to determine which thresholds are best to use according to (a) how
well they align with the primary policy objective; (b) how easy they are to quantify; (c) how long
they have been quantified; (d) how consistent the records are over time; (e) how well they reflect
the system’s trends; (f) whether they can substitute for other triggers or indicators by providing
more sophisticated information; (g) whether they are appropriate at the scale of analysis; (h)
whether they can be easily manipulated or influenced by unrelated drivers; and (i) the flexibility of
the triggers and the thresholds’ response to new information.
In some cases, it may be feasible to use the same threshold for several issues or to use
existing information (such as the population census or NOAA tide, current, and wave information)
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 243
as thresholds. The use of existing information to derive thresholds provides important cost savings
and creates other synergies when long-range series of information are already available.
Drawing on the results of the vulnerability study, one can create an organized list of future
climate change impacts, the drivers causing those risks, and the resulting consequences. Both the
causes and consequences of a particular risk or issue can be used as potential triggers and
thresholds.
Direct physical thresholds (e.g., sea level rise, salinity levels, groundwater levels, and
maximum flood height) are obvious choices because they are straightforward and easily
monitored. However, economic or social impact thresholds (indirect physical thresholds) can also
be used to complement or substitute for (measure by proxy) physical thresholds when direct
thresholds are difficult to measure or require extensive amounts of fieldwork.
One must measure not only the changes to the system due to impacts but also the changes
introduced by the adaptation measures (adaptation to or mitigation of impacts). It is therefore
necessary to identify indicators capable of measuring the performance of the adaptation options in
terms of the policy objective. For example, a seawall of 4 m was created for current sea level
conditions. In 20 years, when SLR is about 50 cm, the seawall will no longer be effective in
protecting the properties behind it and will be compromised during high tides several times per
year. It can be said that the seawall cannot meet its policy objective (to protect) once sea level rise
reaches 50 cm. Then the physical threshold to the next action on the seawall (increase height)
would be set at a sea level rise of 50 cm.
Social thresholds and triggers are largely concerned with the well-being of the community,
its attitude toward risk, and the perceived level of service performed by the adaptation measure
(risk tolerance).
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Economic thresholds and triggers are concerned with the economic impacts and
consequences of reaching the limits of an adaptation option. These thresholds can be associated
with the ongoing maintenance costs of protective infrastructure, the insurance premiums to offset
risk, or the economic losses expected should an extreme event occur. Economic thresholds are of
extreme importance when local governments or local communities themselves are forced to bear
the cost of adaptation because they can become the first barrier to adaptation that a community
faces. These economic thresholds may be reached earlier than any physical threshold.
Regarding legal and political thresholds, the analysis of institutional capacity, programs,
and other resources available for adaptation can identify legal or political conditions that impair or
promote adaptation. For example, legislation making construction of private seawalls to protect
private property illegal creates a legal threshold to adaptation options. On the other hand, legal or
political developments could result in positive changes and bring constructive capacity or
economic resources to implement adaptation.
The first vulnerability analysis signaled two important political events that would positively
affect the CPM area: (a) the adoption of a program of payment for environmental services—
REDD—as a possible source of funding, which the region is currently pursuing (Avendano et al.,
2016); and (b) energy reform, whereby the energy industry (oil and power) is being privatized after
more than five decades of being operated as a government monopoly and is setting sunsets for the
exploitation of oil activities by the year 2050. These two events can become legal or political
turning points providing the funds to implement a significant level of adaptation to prevent
undesired system stages.
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The lagoon’s biophysical threshold events that may cause a transitional change of stage
(from brackish water to fresh water, to a full marine environment) are identified in the process are
as follows:
• T1: Closing of the lagoon’s mouth
• T2: Breaking of the sandbar, creating two mouths
• T3: Occurrence of major riverine sediment discharge, perhaps causing the closing of
the mouth
• T4: Permanent breaking of the sandbar
The climate scenarios studied declare that the biggest changes in climate change arein
temperature and rain pattern, and therefore both temperature and rain should be included in the
analysis as indicators. Changes in both temperature and amount of rainfall have the potential to
alter the system stage. When temperature reaches an increase of four degrees, it may be considered
as the threshold that may result in the system experiencing extreme evaporation, causing the
concentrations of salinity in the lagoon to increase and cause a change from brackish water to an
ocean-like marine environment. The rain patterns may also affect the concentration of the salinity
in the lagoon, causing massive riverine water discharge that increases the concentrations of salinity
in the lagoon and causes a system change from brackish water to a sweet water environment. The
amount of rain required to cause this change will be the threshold value.
The detailed impacts from changes in rain pattern were already accounted for in the geo-
morphological analysis of the lagoon’s sandbar stability under the effects of extreme events. A
similar analysis was also developed to assess triggers and thresholds caused by temperature rise.
The temperature rise expected by the year 2100 will impact only some crops and the expansion of
tropical diseases through vector insects. The results of the expert consultation suggest that, by the
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year 2100, the change in temperature will not cause a change of state, and therefore it is not listed
as a threshold for this analysis.
There is now the need to think about the social, political, and economic thresholds that the
system may face from now to the year 2100. A quick analysis of the sophisticated legal and
planning institutional climate change framework makes it clear that the lack of budget is one if not
the main barrier to adaptation in the region. In fact, this was highlighted as one of the limitations of
the first study—that all first-tier adaptation measures needed to be low cost. However, the analysis
of institutional capacity, programs, and other possible future resources for adaptation identified,
among others, REDD (the program of payment for environmental services) as a possible source of
funding, and the region is currently pursuing it (Avendano et al., 2016). We can point to the
assignation of those funds as an economic threshold that will impact the system in a very positive
manner (ET1: Begin payment for environmental services) and can set the basis for a cost-benefit
analysis. At first glance, any adaptation expense that will stop erosion or accomplish accretion of
mangrove hectares can be easily justified as maintaining or creating value.
The annual economic value of mangroves has been estimated in different ways, such as the
cost of replacement for the products and services they provide, and the cost to restore or enhance
mangroves that have been eliminated or degraded. The cost of the products and services they
provide has been estimated at USD 200,000–900,000 per square hectare(Wells et al., 2006). The
value of Malaysian mangroves just for storm protection and flood control has been estimated at
USD 300,000 per square kilometer of coastline based on the cost of alternative protective hard
structures. The range of reported costs for mangrove restoration is USD 216,000–225,000 per
square hectare, not including the cost of the land. In Thailand, restoring mangroves has cost USD
946 per square hectare while the cost for protecting existing mangroves has been only USD 189
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ha
2
. We can set a threshold of cost (ET2: If adaptation option cost is higher than the value of the
generated or protected value). After this threshold, it will be necessary to evaluate different
adaptation alternatives.
The two major economic thresholds identified in the process were as follows:
• ET1: First payment for environmental services
• ET2: Cost of adaptation strategy versus environmental benefits
Mexico is experiencing an energy reform political movement whereby the energy industry
(oil and power) is being privatized after more than five decades of being operated as a government
monopoly. But because this energy reform was still an ongoing effort at the time of this analysis, it
was not possible to interpret the specific ways that the newly introduced industry will impact or
make available resources for adaptation (Avendano et al., 2016). The only threshold this analysis
makes evident is the expected ceasing of oil extraction in the area by the year 2050. The political
threshold identified in the process is PT1: Sunset for oil industry–related extraction
Micro-credits adaptation measure: The adaptation measure of microcredits begins with the
community being organized in small working groups focused on specific economic activities that
increase the resiliency of the community against the predicted impacts of climate change. I
propose to use microcredits to (a) implement agroforestry (changing types and techniques of
agricultural practices to make them more resistant to increased temperature and to longer periods
of drought); (b) cultivate local and traditional medicinal herbs to cure and abate the symptoms of
tropical diseases such as yellow fever, dengue, malaria, chagas, leprosy, and others that are
forecasted to increase in the area due to future vector distribution (as a result of changes in
temperature and precipitation patterns); (c) reuse solid waste (shells and dead mangrove trees) to
be used as construction materials such as bricks and fencing materials; and (d) advance
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progression of economic activities from raw production and artisanal techniques to
industrialization and distribution, increasing income per family.
All of these microcredits begin by members of the community organizing in small groups
and making a proposal for an economic activity to the bank. The bank will first approve very small
amounts of money to test the ideas, to establish trust, and to develop the details of project
functionality. If this small effort is successful, a positive credit file is established, and credit at the
community level is approved. It usually takes three years for the credit approval at the community
level. Two thresholds, then, can be identified here as capable to create a transition at system
level:
• TAM1: Community organizing
• TAM2: Credit approval
Aquaculture adaptation measure: The practice of aquaculture is being impacted by
overexploitation and pollution, and in the future it will be impacted by changes in salinity levels
as the sandbar closes and opens. The activities of aquaculture will have to transition from the
current estuarine practices to sweet water aquaculture in order to open ocean fisheries as the
lagoon evolves in response to SLR and erosion of the sandbar. The biological indicators that
could serve as triggers and thresholds to initiate action and that determine what type of species
may be cultivated successfully by aquaculture are as follows:
• TAA1: Water quality (pollutants)
• TAA2: Salinity
• TAA3: Dissolved oxygen
• TAA4: Available nutrients
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The anthropogenic indicators that may serve as thresholds or triggers for actions identified in the
process of transitioning from one type of aquaculture to the next, and from artisanal practices to
industrialization are as follows:
• TAA4 Community training
• TAA5 Facilities construction
• TAA6 Artisanal cultures
• TAA7 Industrialization of the practices
• TAA8 Processing and packing
• TAA9 Marketing and distribution
Agroforestry adaptation measure: This adaptation measure consists of changing agricultural
practices to create food security and community resiliency against higher temperatures and
different rain distribution patterns as predicted under future climate change scenarios. Crops will
be grown in the shade of large trees, which lessen the effects of higher atmospheric temperatures.
The change in rain pattern distribution will result in non-significant impact for the next 100
years; therefore, agroforestry techniques will focus on temperature resilience. Temperature- and
drought-resistant crops will be cultivated in concentric circles to create controlled micro-weather
conditions. The threshold identified for this adaptation measure is as follows:
• TAAG1: Atmospheric temperature
Solid waste management adaptation measure: A solid waste management plan will include
community outreach, education, and awareness campaigns about the dangers of trash disposal in
open spaces; creation of family-level trash disposal plans; changes in community-level trash
disposal behaviors; construction of facilities; separation of organics; and reuse of organics as
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mangrove fertilization; reuse of inorganic waste as construction material, and working toward a
zero-waste community.
The phases identified for this adaptation measure are as follows:
• TASWM1: Community training at family level
• TASWM2: Community training SWM at community level
• TASWM2: Facilities construction
• TASWM3: Processing, separating, and reusing
Mangrove land use and sandbar management adaptation measures: There are several
adaptation actions to help the migration of the mangrove inland away from erosion and full-
period inundation by SLR. These measures include restoration of tidal marshes by development
and land use restrictions in order to displace farming and agricultural activities stressing the
mangroves; restoration of natural tidal flows to increase the movement of water in and out of the
lagoon to control the inundation period; re-colonization of sea-grass species to guarantee
diversity and provide adequate nursery grounds for fisheries and the mangrove; increased
sediment transport and building of substrate elevation for the mangrove; restoration of inundated
freshwater areas back to brackish and salt marsh habitats to enhance marsh development; reverse
subsidence (sediment deposition in conjunction with plantings of native species, building critical
elevation in areas where marsh accretion rates are insufficient to keep pace with local SLR);
identifying and monitoring geomorphologic dynamic responses to SLR for planning and
decision-making related to land acquisition; development restrictions; preservation of high
biodiversity areas; mitigation of critical habitat losses; maximization of bio-corridors; buffering
high-quality habitat from SLR and storms; modeling and monitoring beach and sandbar geo-
morphological change after extreme events; improving data and prediction of habitat persistence;
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monitoring sandbar dynamics for declining or listed species that use these systems; and planning
alternative future bio-corridors. Mangrove ecosystems (red, white, and black mangroves) and
coastal species that use these habitats (e.g., the brown pelican) would especially benefit from
management actions that incorporate threshold metrics for a range of stressors (e.g., SLR,
temperature, precipitation) as well as metrics across seasons and latitudinal gradients. For the
CPM system, the models indicate that changes in temperature, precipitation, and therefore
salinity did not show to be significant over the next 100 years to the point of creating a
permanent change on the status of the system, so the only threshold identified so far is sea level
rise relative to substrate elevation.
A series of adaptation measures are suggested for the stabilization of the sandbar,
elongating the time period before a permanent breakage of the bar and inundation of large
extensions of mangrove lands. Beach nourishment is the first step suggested to enhance beach and
sandbar habitat. This can be done by artisanal methods, using the same boats that the fishermen
use for the collection of mussels from the bottom of the lagoon. They would use similar
techniques, but they would collect sediment from the bottom of the lagoon to deepen the main
channel and try to keep the lagoon’s mouth open and improve circulation. When these efforts are
insufficient, the measurement can be scaled up through pumping and dredging. The dredged
material can be used for sandbar restoration.
The main physiological thresholds were already identified as follows:
• T1: Closing of the lagoon’s mouth
• T2: Breaking of the sandbar, creating two mouths
• T3: Major riverine sediment discharge, closing the mouth
• T4: Permanent breaking of the sandbar
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More detailed quantitative thresholds should be developed during the project
implementation period that can guide beach nourishment projects to ensure any adverse impacts to
shorebirds, invertebrates, sea turtles, or other beach-dependent species are minimized. The
shoreline management strategy for living coastlines has a triple objective: (a) to protect the natural
land–water continuum, (b) to reduce flooding and erosion, and (c) to provide habitat for coastal
species. Quantitative threshold metrics related to SLR or extreme events for key species that are
often part of a living shoreline approach (e.g., sea grass, mangroves, oysters) will provide more
detailed information to inform site selection and design parameters. This will be helpful to ensure
the adaptation measures are used in the most appropriate places and to provide the greatest
ecological and human community benefits. For example, identifying inundation thresholds for
eastern oysters can inform the construction and ongoing maintenance of oyster reefs in a living
shoreline project to ensure optimal oyster submersion times relative to changing rates of SLR .
Similar decisions can be achieved to direct the landward migration of the mangroves. For now, I
focus only on the most basic first-level thresholds and designing the system such that whenever
necessary and more precise information becomes available, it can be incorporated in the decision-
making process, thus increasing the understanding of ecosystem responses to threats and enabling
more informed actions. Further, quantitative thresholds provide resource managers with greater
confidence in their decisions, even when coupled with the high uncertainties associated with
climate and SLR projections. Threshold metrics enhance these strategies and build on decision
support tools by informing monitoring and decision-making (Foley et al., 2015).
These climate change adaptation strategies represent some of the ways coastal managers
and decision-makers can effectively increasing the persistence and resilience of vulnerable habitats
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and species in the face of SLR; therefore, the main threshold for this strategy was identified as the
following:
TASB1: Sea level rise relative to substrate elevation
Triggers
Determining appropriate triggers for each adaptation threshold is necessary once the
thresholds are established. Once the trigger point is reached, some kind of action is required, but
for the implementation of most actions, a certain period of preparation and planning is required.
Triggers, then, are established as safety buffers before a threshold is reached. The time needed
before achieving a successful transition to a new adaptation or policy option is signaled by
triggers. I used five steps to identify adequate triggers for each threshold:
1. Identify variables and processes involved in reaching the threshold.
2. Obtain or develop projections for the threshold variables.
3. Establish the time required for the response and determine the appropriate safety buffer
to allow enough time for the transition to alternative adaptation options or to implement
alternative adaptation policies.
4. Determine the trigger points based on the safety buffers.
5. Set monitoring intervals.
The decision-making process can incorporate physical and social thresholds. Figure 29
shows a decision-making scheme to illustrate the timing of the decision-making process as the
system reaches three distinct stages of risk tolerance, with a combination of social and physical
indicators used as thresholds Figure 29 also shows when necessary decisions or actions are due
and the trigger points (signaling the time to initiate the preparations for or transition to the next
adaptation option or adaptation policy).
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Figure 29. Effective timing of adaptation implementation in relation to thresholds and
triggers. Source: HCCREMS (2012).
The first stage (green) shows the time when a policy objective or objectives can be
achieved easily by the adaptation option (low level of risk). During the second stage (blue), the
level of risk increases as the adaptation measure presents difficulties in keeping the required levels
of performance to comply with policy objectives due to the measure’s diminished efficiency
against future conditions. The trigger point is reached when the performance levels start to
decrease. However, some minor adaptation actions can be implemented to maintain performance
levels. Nevertheless, a threshold will be reached when the supplemental adaptation actions are
deemed insufficient to maintain performance levels, and a new adaptation option should be
implemented to avoid major losses or irreversible consequences. In stage three (red), the
effectiveness of the chosen adaptation measures has been surpassed, and the impact or
consequences have already occurred. A change in policy needs to be implemented immediately.
The adaptation option threshold has been passed, and it is time to move to the next level of
adaptation policy; for example, from protect or reallocate to retreat.
The previous section identified the indicators that Based on the variables that influence the
indicators reaching the thresholds. Projections for the threshold variables need to be developed to
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gain an understanding of the rate of change of the variable and therefore the likely timing of the
threshold being reached. In the case of physical and environmental thresholds (e.g., sea level rise,
coastal recession), these projections can be taken from the first vulnerability analysis. Based on
those climate change scenarios and impacts projected, the point in time when the threshold will be
reached can be approximated, and future thresholds can then be extrapolated. The time in between
thresholds provides an idea of how long a policy or a strategy will be effective and when further
intervention will be required (i.e., new adaptation actions or a new policy). A monitoring program
will provide information about how long before thresholds are reached, and from there, the time of
response can be established.
Establishing the time required for the response. The time of response is the total time
necessary to implement a new strategy or policy. It includes the research and preparation time,
from the identification and screening of new adaptation actions in response to the upcoming
change, how long it will take to make the decisions involving the community, and educating the
community to help them to make informed decisions. Based on previous experience, it takes at
least one year to allow for consultation with stakeholders and filtering the options to determine a
short list of adaptation measures. One could then use tables instead of conducting a full cost-
benefit analysis to recommend the top three adaptation measures. An example of this pre-made
cost/benefit decision table is shown in Table 18.
The time of response doesn’t end at the time of the decision about the next adaptation step;
it continues until the full implementation of the next adaptation option; for example, the
construction of a hybrid structure after soft measures have failed, reinforcement of seawalls, or
building new submerged structures, which may include the time required for preparation (e.g.,
funding, planning approvals, etc.). The response time ends when the next adaptation measure is
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already in place responding to the upcoming change. The life of the asset may need to be included
in the response time for the next adaptation strategy.
Safety buffers
Considerations of uncertainty and building up a safety buffer in decision-making. Due
to the uncertainty prevalent in coastal decision-making, largely discussed in the second chapter
of this dissertation, the exact point in time when a threshold or trigger will be reached is often
not known; therefore, a safety buffer or safety margin needs to be incorporated into the decision-
making, acting like a contingency to cover unforeseen events such as acceleration in the direct or
indirect effects of climate change or a delay in the decision-making process.
For some thresholds, uncertainty estimates may have been already developed by other
authors and could be used to determine a safety buffer (see Figure 30 ) for storm conditions. As
well, to incorporate a safety buffer in specific climate change scenarios, additional scenarios
(worse or better) may be used to determine a safety buffer for the central climate change scenario
being considered.
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Figure 30. Establishing a safety buffer using uncertainty estimates.
The safety buffer is not a statistical variable; it can be used to incorporate the community’s
willingness to take risk but avoid cost. It needs to be set within the particular social or ecological
context, taking into account the appetite for risk among the stakeholders and community. The
safety buffer can be expressed in different units: in time (additional years of adaptation measure
life), as a percentage (additional 10% of maintenance cost savings), or in the unit of measurement
of the threshold variable (e.g., centimeters of sea level rise, dollar value, number of times roads are
inundated, number of times the sand barrier will be rebuilt after an extreme event, etc.).
Determining trigger points. A trigger point marks the time to initiate an action to be
prepared to reach or delay a threshold. A trigger point is determined by subtracting the response
time (including safety buffers and monitoring times) from the point when the threshold will be
reached. The impacts of reaching a threshold can be used to set triggers, as they can be measured
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as they gradually increase. Reaching a threshold of SLR = 1.5 m is signaled by the gradual
progression of inundation of coastal roads (it becomes more frequent). Impacts may be
acceptable for the community if the inundations occur only a few times per year, however, the
willingness of the community to accept the floods can change if the frequency and level of
damage to local residents increases considerably. The local community may set a trigger such as
roads must be open 95% of the time, and force the system to incorporate the next adaptation
strategy when the floods occur for more than 5% of the time, even before reaching the actual
threshold SLR= 1.5m.

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Table 18
Summary of Adaptation Measures with Their Cost, Benefits and Impacts. Source: (Beaver 2016)

Monitoring
Setting appropriate monitoring intervals: The state of the system, the results, and the levels of
performance of the adaptation measures need to be monitored. The appropriate monitoring
interval will be determined by both the rate of change and the time elapsed, as well as the effort
and costs involved in measuring the variables, indicators, thresholds, and trigger points. Some
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indicators will change relatively rapidly while others will change slowly over time; therefore, the
monitoring frequency of each variable will be different. However, the monitoring frequency
needs to be such that it accurately assesses extreme events, such as fluctuations around triggers
and thresholds, but it will have to also be able to reflect long term trends. This behavior of the
variables should be taken into account when setting monitoring intervals.
Relatively short monitoring intervals are necessary for indicators that change quickly.
Seasonal monitoring needs to be scheduled for variables that are known to have seasonal
distribution patterns or specific time-related behaviors such as at annual or even biannual intervals.
Additional monitoring should be scheduled after an extreme event. Figure 31 gives an example of
the overlapping long-term trends and effects of extreme events. Other indicators may come with an
inherent monitoring interval as the change can be observed at a certain reporting date under
already-established protocols or required as part of other concurrent government programs. This is
likely to be the case with economic indicators; such as operating, insurance, and maintenance costs
that are published quarterly, and some other social indicators such as visitation numbers or
complaints published in annual reports of government agencies. In these cases, reporting cycles
can be used to determine monitoring intervals.

COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 261

Figure 31. Long-term and short-term events and trends in climate change; Adapted from
Sanchez-Arcilla (2016)
Other authors have already developed tables recommending monitoring intervals for
certain project types. An example of recommended monitoring intervals for the different variables
used as indicators or triggers is given in the Table 19.

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Table 19
Examples of Monitoring Interval Triggers. Adapted from HCCREMS (2012)
Monitoring Interval Triggers

Yearly Monitoring:

• Sea level rise
• Maximum flood level
• Annual exceedance probability
• Number of lives at risk
• People and properties at risk
• Property values
• Extent of coastal erosion/recession
• Salinity level
• Number of species/decrease in population
• Public and political appetite for risk
• Number of days areas need to be closed (recreation
facilities, reserves, roads)
• Remaining life of existing assets
• Operating and maintenance costs
• Insurance premiums

Semiannual Monitoring:
• Frequency of disruptions to businesses (closure of roads,
ports, access to aquaculture facilities, changes to shipping
routes, etc.)
• Community outrage over or satisfaction with performance
of adaptation measures
• Certain variables close to thresholds such as beach width
and salinity levels

The cost of measuring the indicator needs to be in proportion to both the benefits expected from
the adaptation action and the pace at which the indicator is changing. The level of detail required
for the modeling predictions is another factor to consider in allocating resources for monitoring
programs. For example, comprehensive flood modeling is required to determine changes in
maximum flood heights. This is both costly and time-consuming. Decision-makers need to weigh
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the costs of measuring the maximum flood height against both the damage expected from a severe
flood and the rate at which the maximum flood height is increasing, and then if cost is a factor,
perhaps they are willing to accept a certain level of risk based on their past experience.
Consideration of the monitoring interval will also help to determine if the selected
threshold is appropriate. If a suitable monitoring regime cannot be established, it is likely that the
threshold is not easily quantifiable and measureable and therefore does not meet the requirements
of a good threshold. Perhaps, though, the monitoring regime is not suitable simply because the
threshold and indicators do not follow a trend, and the amount of information they provide is not
really significant to the system. Other aspects of the monitoring process that need to be explicit in
monitoring plans are how the threshold variables are going to be monitored, who will have
responsibility for the monitoring (which agency, department, etc.), what kind of data compilation
and reporting will be done, and the source and amount of resource allocation.
Evaluation of the system stage: Results of the monitoring program will allow for adjustments to
projections and trigger points as new and perhaps more detailed information becomes available.
This information should be used to refine projections and increase the accuracy of future change
predictions and times of threshold occurrence. Trajectories of threshold and trigger variables will
most certainly change over time and may require the trigger point to be revised. For example, if
sea level rise occurs at a faster rate than originally anticipated, the trigger point will need to be
lowered, and the trigger (including a new safety buffer) will need to be recalculated to allow for
sufficient time for the implementation of the adaptation option.
Results of the initial monitoring should be compiled and used to determine whether the
trigger points have been reached or are close to being reached and the adaptation action therefore
needs to be implemented. Results should also be used to determine adjustments of projections of
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variables, thresholds, triggers, and system trends, and whenever necessary, to modify the
monitoring intervals. The same process should be completed at the end of each subsequent
monitoring interval. Monitoring programs designed for the adaptation measures and a more
detailed description of adaptation actions bundled under each adaptation plan are presented latter
in this section.
Figure 32 shows the recommended steps for assessment and reassessment of variables
being monitored during the adaptive process.

Figure 32. Dynamic decision making, a policy analysis approach for decision making under
uncertainty (Deltares 2018).
Thresholds, Triggers and Indicators Characterizing the CPM System
Table 20 below summarizes potential thresholds, triggers and indicators to characterize the
CPM system. Whenever the threshold may lead to a permanent change, it has been relabeled as a
4. Develop and evaluate adaptation pathways
3. Identify actions and assess ATP conditions and
timing
1. Describe system, objectives, uncertainties
5. Design adaptive plan incl. short-term actions,
long-term options and adaptation signals
Reassess
Actions
Reassess
2. Assess vulnerabilities and opportunities.
Identify adaptation tipping point (ATP)
conditions and timing for current situation
6. Implement the plan
7. Monitor if ATP is approaching, if actions or
reassessment is needed
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tipping point and its shown in Table 21. Table 21 shows the Tipping points identified for the CPM
system under current conditions and under future climate change scenarios.
Table 20
Thresholds, Triggers and Indicators Characterizing the CPM System
Threshold Trigger Indicator
T1
Closing of the lagoon’s mouth

Sandbar width >
Lagoon mouth <
Main channel deposition >
Beach profile
Topographic survey
Bathymetric survey
T2
Breaking of the sand bar creating
two mouths
Sandbar width <
Erosion rate <
Main channel depth >
Beach profile
Topographic survey
Bathymetric survey
T3
Major riverine
sediment discharge closing
lagoon mouth

River sediment load >
River discharge >
River bank profiles
Water quality sample
Granulometry
T4 Permanent breaking of the
sandbar
Sandbar width <
Erosion rate <
Main channel depth >
New channel or new erosion
hotspot
Beach profile
Topographic survey
Bathymetric survey
ET1 Begin payment for
environmental services
Budget available for
adaptation >
Dollars
ET2 Cost of adaptation strategy
versus environmental benefits
Budget available for
adaptation minus available
budget plus new
environmental benefits
Dollars
PT1 Sunset for oil industry
related extraction
Year 2050
TAM1 Community organizing Semi-annual meetings
Quarterly meetings
Workshops
Contracts

TAM2 Credit approval Credit application
TAA1 Water quality (pollutants) Coliforms >
Heavy metals <
Water quality sample and
monitoring
TAA2 Salinity < % Water sampling
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TAA3 Dissolved Oxygen < and > Water sampling
TAA4 Available Nutrients % Water quality Sample
TAA4 Community training Months before the opening of
the facilities
Tests and workshops
TAA5 Facilities construction Total preparation time
TAA6 Artisanal cultures Performance > Tons of production
TAA7 Industrialization of the
practices
Total preparation time Tests and workshops
TAA8 Processing and packing Community capacity Tons of production
TAA9 Marketing and
distribution
Community capacity Tons of production
TAAG1 Atmospheric
temperature
Degrees of temperature
change
Temperature trend
TASWM1 Community training at
family level
Months before the SWR
management begins
Tests and workshops
TASWM2 Community training
SWM at community level
Months before the opening of
the facilities
Tests and workshops
TASWM2 Facilities construction Total preparation time
TASWM3 Processing separating
and reusing
Total tons of solid waste Tons of solid waste
TASB1 Sea Level Rise relative to
substrate elevation
Sea level and substrate level Delta elevation

To continue the analysis, the tipping points identified for the system so far have been
compiled in a table. Table 21, shows the tipping points of the lacunae system color coded to
make more evident the association between tipping points and its impacts on the system. The
impacts are then associated with their correspondent adaptation measures to prevent those
impacts following the same color code to achieve consistency on the analysis. For example, the
opening and closing of the lagoon sandbar has a direct effect on the salinity and therefore in the
type and species that can be grown for aquaculture purposes. Economic activities are controlled
by the flux of capital. The three main sources of capital are the adaptation measure micro-credits,
the “pollutant penalty” program applied to the oil industry, and the program of payment for
environmental services.
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 267
Table 21
Tipping Points and Turning Points Identified for the CPM Lacunae System

As the flux of capital makes them possible, new adaptation measures are implemented.
Figure 33 to Figure 37 show how events flagged as tipping points, thresholds, and triggers relate
to the sandbar and how the opening and closing of the lagoon affect the timeframe for
implementation of the different adaptation measures.
Figure 38 shows the interdependence between tipping points, major triggers and
thresholds related to the sandbar and the implementation of all adaptation measures.
Tipping Points

Y label
-40 ER Energy Reform
-10 CS Credit Established
-60 MR Mangle Rehabilitation
-15 FWA Fresh Water Aquaculture
-60 MMC Mouth Machona Closing
-45 SOE Stop Oil Extraction
-60 SBB Sand Bar Break
-35 PSA Payments for Environmental Services

COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 268

Figure 33. Adaptation measure microcredits affected by the establishment of credit at community level (yellow) and by the changes
in the oil industry (brown).

Figure 34. Adaptation measure microcredits affected by establishment of credit at community level (yellow) and by closing of the
sandbar (blue), breaking of the sandbar (green), and changes in payment for environmental services (pink).

Time Axis
Y Axis
Line of Credit
Family Level
Line of Credit
Community
Level
Job Training
Oil Industry
Services
Processing
Industrializati
on
Distribution
Education
Outreach
Climate
Change
Education
Outreach
Social Justice
Programs
Height 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 100
Start 1 1 0 7 10 0 41 45 50 0 0
End 100 200 100 100 100 40 100 100 100 100 100
Cost (k) 300 1000 200 -1000 3000 5000 5000 100 100
Microcredits
Time Axis
Y Axis
Greenhouse
Mangrove
Family Level
Greenhouse
Mangrove
Community
Level
Job Training
Bio-fences
Interior Edge
Stabilization
Bio-fences
Riverine
Stabilization
Channeling
Bio corridors
Education
Outreach
Climate
Change
Education
Outreach
Social Justice
Programs
Height 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190
Start 1 1 0 7 10 5 8 10 35 0 0
End 100 200 100 100 100 75 72 75 75 100 100
Cost (k) 300 1000 200 -1000 3000 5000 100 100 100
Mangrove
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 269
Figure 35. Adaptation measure agroforestry affected by the beginning of the program payment for environmental services (pink) and
the establishment of microcredits at community level (yellow).

Figure 36. Adaptation measure aquaculture affected by the establishment of credit at community level (yellow) and by closing of the
sandbar (blue), breaking of the sandbar (green), and changes in payment for environmental services (pink).

Time Axis
Y Axis
Greenhouse
Family Level
Greenhouse
Community
Level
Job Training
Commercializati
on of Medicinal
Herbs
Processing
Medicinal herbs
Marketing and
Distribution of
Medicinal Herbs
Resilient Crops
R&D
Education
Outreach
Climate Change
Education
Outreach Social
Justice Programs
Height 310 320 330 340 350 360 370 380 390
Start 1 1 0 7 10 5 13 15 10 0 0
End 100 200 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
Cost (k) 300 1000 200 -1000 3000 5000 100 100 100
Agroforestry
Time Axis
Y Axis
Continue Artesan
Aquaculture at
Family Level
Improve and
Organize
Aquaculture at
Community Level
Job Training
Fresh Water
Aquaculture
Processing of
Fresh Water
Species
Marketing and
Distribution Fresh
Water Species
Salt Water
Aquiculture
Education
Outreach Climate
Change
Education
Outreach Social
Justice Programs
Height 410 420 430 440 450 460 470 480 490
Start 1 1 0 0 10 35 40 45 75 0 0
End 100 200 100 100 100 75 75 75 100 100 100
Cost (k) 300 1000 200 -1000 3000 5000 100 100 100
Aquaculture
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 270

Figure 37. Management of solid residues affected by the establishment of credits at community level (yellow) and the closing of the
sandbar (blue)
Time Axis
Y Axis
Recycling
Family Level
Recycling
Community
Level
Job Training
Recycling
Industrial Level
Organics for
Mangrove and
Riverine
Stabilization
Education
Outreach
Climate Change
Education
Outreach Social
Justice Programs
Height 210 220 230 240 250 260 270
Start 1 1 0 7 10 5 35 0 0
End 100 200 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
Cost (k) 300 1000 200 -1000 3000 100 100
Management of Solid Residues
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 271

Tipping Points
X Y label Y2
2 -40 ER 550
5 -10 CS 550
= -60 MR 550
= -15 FWA 550
3 -60 MMC 550
4 -45 SOE 550
7 -60 SBB 550
1 -35 PSA 550
Time Axis Y Axis
L
F
L
C Job Training
O
S Processing Industrialization Distribution
E
O
C
E
S
P
Height 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 100
Start 1 1 0 =A5+2 10 0 =A9+1 =A9+5 =A9+10 0 0
End 100 200 100 100 100 40 100 100 100 100 100
Cost (k) 300 1000 200 -1000 3000 5000 5000 100 100
Time Axis Y Axis
G
M
L
G
M
C Job Training
B
I
S
B
S Channeling Bio corridors
E
O
C
E
S
P
Height 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190
Start 1 1 0 =A5+2 10 =A5 =A5+3 =A11 =A8 0 0
End 100 200 100 100 100 =A10 =A10-3 =A10 =A10 100 100
Cost (k) 300 1000 200 -1000 3000 5000 100 100 100
Time Axis Y Axis
R
L
R
C Job Training
R
I
O
M
R
S
E
O
C
E
S
P
Height 210 220 230 240 250 260 270
Start 1 1 0 =A5+2 10 =A5 =A8 0 0
End 100 200 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
Cost (k) 300 1000 200 -1000 3000 100 100
Time Axis Y Axis
G
F
G
C Job Training
C
o
h
P
M
M
M Resilient Crops R&D
E
O
C
E
S
P
Height 310 320 330 340 350 360 370 380 390
Start 1 1 0 =A5+2 10 =A5 =A11+3 =A11+5 =A11 0 0
End 100 200 100 100 100 =100 100 100 100 100 100
Cost (k) 300 1000 200 -1000 3000 5000 100 100 100
Time Axis Y Axis
C
A
F
I
O
A
C Job Training
F
A
P
W
M
F Salt Water Aquiculture
E
O
C
E
S
P
Height 410 420 430 440 450 460 470 480 490
Start 1 1 0 =A2 10 =A8 =A8+5 =A8+10 =A10 0 0
End 100 200 100 100 100 =A10 =A10 =A10 100 100 100
Cost (k) 300 1000 200 -1000 3000 5000 100 100 100
M A A M M
E
C
M
F
M
S
S
P
Figure 38. Direct interdependence between Triggers, Thresholds, Tipping Points in the sandbar and implementation of adaptation
measures.
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 272
Figure 39 Figure 39shows the bundle of adaptation measures proposed with the objective
of improving the stability of the sandbar, adding resiliency to the system. Figure 40 shows the
bundle of adaptation measures proposed with the objective of implementing a system of micro
financing to support other adaptation measures in the communities, increasing their economic
resiliency. Figure 41 shows the bundle of adaptation measures proposed with the objective of
implementing improved aquaculture practices capable of withstanding upcoming climate change
and future anthropogenic impacts. Figure 42 shows the bundle of adaptation measures proposed
with the objective of increasing resiliency of the agricultural practices in order to withstand
future conditions, and to increase the health and food security of the communities to increase
their resiliency as well. Figure 43 shows the bundle of adaptation measures proposed with the
objective of increasing the health of the community and reducing the pollution of the system,
increasing the system's resiliency under present and future conditions.
Some adaptation measures such as public education, outreach, monitoring and re-
evaluation are transversal elements present all the time and throughout all adaptation objectives.
Some adaptation measures are unique to each bundle objective. The horizontal lines represent the
time of implementation for each adaptation measure at the trigger point for the initiation of the
planning and design of the next adaptation measure. The time it will take to plan and implement
each adaptation measure has been considered and a buffer has been incorporated to allow timely
implementation of each adaptation measure as needed. The graphics show the starting point of
this planning and implementation process, not the process by itself. The timeline showed for
each adaptation measure starts at the trigger point, not at the transition point where the adaptation
measure needs to be working for the adaptation bundle to continue achieving its objective.
Interaction and time dependency among adaptation measures and major changes affecting the
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 273
lacunae system were also incorporated to the analysis every time it was determined that a turning
point, tipping point, or other important trigger would affect the adaptation measure. For example,
with the opening and closing of the lagoon's mouth, the salinity of the lagoon will change. If the
change is sufficiently long, the species for aquaculture practices will need to be replaced. The
adaptation measure implementation time begins about five years early, giving sufficient time to
acquire proper permitting and to achieve environmental targets regarding water quality to attain
those permits. The major events affecting the adaptation measures are shown at the bottom of the
horizontal axis, placed to show the time when those events are expected to impact the system.
See, for example, the lagoon's mouth closure at year 35 or sandbar permanent breakage at year
75, where year zero was "Current conditions" year 2014.
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 274

Figure 39. Adaptation Measure Sandbar Management showing the beginning time of
implementation for each action, in response to the tipping points, turning points, thresholds and
triggers identified for the CPM lagoon system.

Beach Survey
Stackable and
Removable Sandbags
Job Training
Beach Nourishment
Jettie
Stabilization of Dunes
Dredging
Education Outreach
Climate Change
Education Outreach
Social Justice Programs
ER
CS
MR
FWA
Closure
SOE
Breakage
PES
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Year
Adaptation Measure Sandbar Management
ER CS MR FWA MMC SOE SBB PSA
Energy
Reform
Credit
Established
Mangle
Rehabilitation
Fresh Water
Aquaculture
Mouth
Machona
Stop Oil
Extraction Sand Bar Break
Payments Environmental
Services
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 275

Figure 40. Adaptation Measure Microcredits showing the beginning time of implementation for
each action, in response to the tipping points, turning points, thresholds and triggers identified
for the CPM lagoon system

Family Level Credit
Community Level
Credit
Job Training
Oil Industry Services
Processing
Industrialization
Distribution
Education Outreach
Climate Change
Education Outreach
Social Justice Programs
ER
CS
MR
FWA
Closure
SOE
Breakage
PES
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Year
Adaptation Measure Micro Credits
ER CS MR FWA MMC SOE SBB PSA
Energy
Reform
Credit
Established
Mangle
Rehabilitation
Fresh Water
Aquaculture
Mouth
Machona
Stop Oil
Extraction Sand Bar Break
Payments Environmental
Services
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 276

Figure 41. Adaptation Measure Aquaculture showing the beginning time of implementation for
each action, in response to the tipping points, turning points, thresholds and triggers identified
for the CPM lagoon system.

Continue Artesan
Aquaculture at Family Level
Improve and Organize
Aquaculture at Community
Level
Job Training
Fresh Water Aquaculture
Processing of Fresh Water
Species
Marketing and Distribution
Fresh Water Species
Salt Water Aquaculture
Education Outreach Climate
Change
Education Outreach Social
Justice Programs
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 Year
Adaptation Measure Aquaculture
ER CS MR FWA MMC SOE SBB PSA
Energy
Reform
Credit
Established
Mangle
Rehabilitation
Fresh Water
Aquaculture
Mouth
Machona
Stop Oil
Extraction Sand Bar Break
Payments Environmental
Services
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 277

Figure 42. Adaptation Measure Agroforestry showing the beginning time of implementation for
each action, in response to the tipping points, turning points, thresholds and triggers identified
for the CPM lagoon system.

Greenhouse
Family Level
Greenhouse
Community Level
Job Training
Commercialization
of Medicinal herbs
Processing
Medicinal herbs
Marketing and
Distribution of
Medicinal Herbs
Resilient Crops
R&D
Education
Outreach Climate
Change
Education
Outreach Social
Justice Programs
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Year
Adaptation Measure Agroforestry
ER CS MR FWA MMC SOE SBB PSA
Energy
Reform
Credit
Established
Mangle
Rehabilitation
Fresh Water
Aquaculture
Mouth
Machona
Stop Oil
Extraction Sand Bar Break
Payments Environmental
Services
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 278

Figure 43. Adaptation Measure Solid Residues Management Plan showing the beginning time of
implementation for each action, in response to the tipping points, turning points, thresholds and
triggers identified for the CPM lagoon system.

Recycling Family
Level
Recycling
Community Level
Job Training
Recycling
Industrial Level
Organics for
Mangrove and
Riverine
Stabilization
Education
Outreach Climate
Change
Education
Outreach Social
Justice Programs
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Year
Adaptation Measure Solid Residues
Management Plan
ER CS MR FWA MMC SOE SBB PSA
Energy
Reform
Credit
Established
Mangle
Rehabilitation
Fresh Water
Aquaculture
Mouth
Machona
Stop Oil
Extraction Sand Bar Break
Payments Environmental
Services
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 279
Figure 44 shows an adaptation measure implementation map, assuming the project has
no funding limitations. This map shows all adaptation measures implemented according to the
needs of the system, triggered by major changes in the system, turning points, tipping points, and
functional interrelations among adaptation measures and system response. Under ideal
conditions, we will be able to add as many mitigation and adaptation measures as needed to
prevent erosion and keep the sandbar in place for the maximum amount of time possible,
allowing the lacunae system to increase its natural resiliency through the migration, maturation
and strengthening of the current mangroves and wetlands, and to increase its resiliency through
man-made interventions such as replanting and spreading of seeds and young trees. But the
reality is that the funding for adaptation at local, regional, national and even global levels is
limited. To fund the first-tier adaptation measures, each adaptation measure was listed along with
the government agency missions and possible funding programs that can fund the adaptation
measure according to its objective. To fund the second-tier adaptation measures, we are counting
on the implementation of payment for environmental services for the region.
A report entitled “Economic Valuation of Environmental Goods and Services in Areas
with Oil Influence in Tabasco,” performed by the Secretariat of Natural Resources and
Environmental Protection Agency in 2011, makes a thorough evaluation of the social and
environmental services of the Tabasco area subject to oil exploitation impacts. This area,
including the CPM lacunae system and its surroundings has considerable environmental value.
The 2011 study evaluates the different types of substrate in the area, the natural soil type, its
environmental function and the land uses for the region. This analysis includes the socio-
environmental valuation of the Carmen-Pajonal-Machona lagoon, its wetlands, mangroves,
agricultural and aquacultural practices.
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 280

Figure 44. Total Map of Adaptation Measures showing the correct calculated timing for implementation.
ER
-CS
MR
FWA
MMC
SOE
SBB
PES
Line of Credit Community Level
Line of Credit Family Level
Job Training
Oil Industry Services
Processing
Industrialization
Distribution
Education Outreach Climate Change
Education Outreach Social Justice Programs
Greenhouse Mangrove Family Level
Greenhouse Mangrove Community Level
Job Training
Bio-fences Interior Edge Stabilization
Bio-fences Riverine Stabilization
Channeling
Bio corridors
Education Outreach Social Justice Programs
Recycling Community Level
Job Training
Recycling Industrial Level
Organics for Mangrove and Riverine Stabilization
Greenhouse Family Level
Greenhouse Community Level
Job Training
Commercialization of Medicinal Herbs
Processing Medicinal Herbs
Marketing and Distribution of Medicinal Herbs
Resilient Crops R&D
Education Outreach Climate Change
Education Outreach Social Justice Programs
Continue Artesan Aquaculture at Family Level
Improve and Organize Aquaculture at Community Level
Job Training
Processing of Fresh Water Species
Marketing and Distribution Fresh Water Species
Salt Water Aquiculture
Education Outreach Social Justice Programs
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Total Map Adaptation Measures Implementation Pathways
MMC= Machona Mouth Closing FWA= Fresh Water Aquaculture SOE= Stop Oil Exploitation SBB= Sand Bar Breaking
ER= Environmental Restoration MRP= Mangrove Restoration Program PES= Payment for Environmental Services CS= Credit Establishment
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 281
The environmental services considered for the 2011 evaluation were: regulation services,
provisioning services, support services, and cultural services. Further detailed quantification and
valuation of the environmental services in the tropical ecosystems surrounding the lagoon
include in particular:
• Regulation of gases, regulation of the climate (quantification of the amount of carbon)
• Regulation of contingencies (quantification of the services of natural systems to recover
from the onslaught of a contingency)
• Regulation of hydrological flows
• Regulation of soil erosion
• Regulation of the nutrient cycle
• Water treatment (purification)
• Fresh water supply
• Provision of food and raw materials
• Genetic resources
• Soil formation
• Pollination
• Habitat
• Biological control
• Cultural and recreational services
The report develops economic valuation of the environmental services of tropical
ecosystems, both as the total economic value of the area by habitat type, and in environmental
services per area per year. This instrument consists of a matrix containing the value of the
environmental services per unit area (expressed in US dollars per hectare per year). The results
of this matrix show that the average economic value for the natural ecosystems in the area is
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 282
equal to $3,671 per hectare per year. The highest economic value was allocated to the water body
(the CPM lacunae system) with $8,782 per hectare per year. These results are shown graphically
in Figure 45.
Figure 45. Economic Valuation of Environmental services of the Tabasco areas under impacts
and influence of the Oil industry exploitation. Source (Vazques et al, 2011).

COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 283
The total economic value of environmental services in the natural ecosystems and the
agro-ecosystems of the area amounted to $1.553 billion. The value of the environmental services
of the natural ecosystems was calculated as $1.292 billion (83% of the total economic value).
The lagoon was the ecosystem with the highest economic value ($419 million, approximately
27% of the total value) and the scrub, mangrove, and the low flood forest was valued at$267
million (17.2% of the total value).
When analyzing the area by physiographic zone, the greatest economic value in the
natural ecosystems is concentrated in the coastal zone with an approximate value of $665.9
million. The floodplain and alluvial plain physiographic zones represent the highest economic
value in the agro-ecosystems, valued at approximately $167 million. We could then calculate a
total economic value of approximately $833 million for the CPM lacunae area and its
surrounding mangroves. This shows that the relatively low cost of the proposed adaptation
measures to maintain sandbars, such as beach nourishment for about $23 per cubic meter of sand
or about $8,000 per meter of submerged structures, can be easily justified with a positive cost-
benefit ratio.
In 2016, INECC conducted a cost-benefit analysis of typical mangrove reforestation
projects in the area, citing among the environmental benefits offered by the CPM lacunae area
the improved quantity and quality of air and oxygen in the atmosphere, improved water supply
for the area, purification of waste waters, improved habitat for fish species, and increased
production of forest products. Other benefits, which could not be monetized, include coastal
protection against floods and erosion, carbon capture, species habitat, and aesthetic and
recreational values. The analysis also identified several costs such as conducting diagnostic
studies, land preparation, production materials, planting, technical assistance, monitoring and the
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 284
opportunity cost of land use. However, other authors in the area have also agreed with the
analysis of a positive cost-benefit analysis while protecting and adapting the area to possible
flooding. Toon et al. (2017) developed a cost-benefit analysis of adaptation strategies required to
cope with coastal and river related flooding in the area, making a positive recommendation for
implementing coastal adaptation measures that include hard structures (e.g., flood protection
infrastructure). The authors based their appraisal on a multi-disciplinary cascade of hazards and
risk modeling that calculated current damages by coastal flooding to be about half a billion
dollars and are expected to increase from $0.53 billion today up to $4.12 billion in 2080. The
analysis also included impacts due to socio-economic development and climate change under the
business as usual scenario if no coastal protection adaptation measures are implemented.
According to different standards of design, each dollar invested would yield 4.29, 8.13, and 7.45
dollars for the 10-, 100-, and 1000-year standards, respectively. The report suggests the use of
the 100-year standard of design, to be implemented for economically optimal protection, since
the cost-benefit ratio for the 100-year design is $8.13 of return per dollar of investment (Toon et
al., 2017).
Although the current dissertation does not endorse the commitment of such large scale
investments upfront but instead the use of incremental adaptation measures creating pathways for
the maximization of the resources as conditions change, the 2017 cost-benefit study
demonstrates that adaptation in the CPM lacunae area is economically justified by a large
positive cost-benefit ratio, and provides a solid indicator of economically efficient adaptation
strategies even under the traditional long-term planning horizons.

COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 285
Chapter 6: Conclusion
This final chapter summarizes the research approach used in this dissertation, and
highlights how this research accomplishes the particular objective of the Doctor of Policy,
Planning and Development degree, i.e., to improve state of the art practices in my discipline. In
my more than twenty years of professional experience I have had the opportunity to witness the
struggle of the coastal management and coastal adaptation practice, and the very real limitations
of scopes, budgets, and conflicting timing frames and agency missions. I experienced the need to
achieve results in a comprehensive and efficient manner, in a short time and with full
accountability to taxpayers, constituents and decision makers, especially when entrusted with the
administration and protection of public goods and coastal resources.
As a project manager and resource administrator, I am sometimes forced to make
decisions with less than perfect information and incomplete studies that leave me with more
questions than answers. Why did the city decide to study and compare a particular set of coastal
adaptation structures and not others? Why were the rolling easements given a twenty year setup
for removal of coastal structures and not ten or one hundred years? Why do people think that
planning for retreat implies only the cost of structure removal often dollars per square foot,
ignoring the real issue of fairness for present users and future generations? By allowing the
cliffs to erode, does it really guarantee having wide beaches or will it only guarantee more
hazardous conditions for thousands of visitors? Given that the level of the ocean is changing,
would the current surfing conditions remain? If the surfing will be "eroding" anyway, why do we
restrict the use of protecting structures? Are protective structures always evil? Who is right, who
is wrong, and why there is so much antagonism among the main voices in public hearing
debates? Why are these always the same voices? Who has standing to be there? Are these voices
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 286
representative of the whole community? Are the initiatives presented by proponents the best
possible alternatives, or just alternatives copied from other studies and taken out of context?
Those are hard but genuine questions that gather in my head during my daily practice.
The quest for answering those questions is what motivates my research moving from discipline
to discipline, from project to project, from sector to sector, in an organized and sequential
manner, building up to this dissertation from oceanography to spatial planning and coastal
adaptation. Below, I focus on the academic foundations that support my practice as an
oceanographer and coastal adaptation professional and the methodological structure that set the
basis for this quest.
Statement of the Problem
Adequate information is not available to fully justify public expenditure in one way or the other
as the best possible use of public resources.
Because there has not being a systematic and overarching approach to decision making that can
reconcile the different perspectives, interests, priorities and scales present in the coastal zone.
Decision makers are faced with hard questions every day, and they require precise
answers delivered in a timely manner. Adequate information is not available to fully justify
public expenditures in one way or the other as the best use of public resources. One or more
adaptation alternatives are feasible, and perhaps beneficial, but there has not been a systematic
and overarching approach to decision making that can reconcile the different perspectives,
interests and priorities present in the coastal zone. For the last decades in California, only a few
prevailing voices are present at public hearings, perpetuating the conflict, biases and
idiosyncrasies ingrained now on those prevailing ideas. This reduces the possibility of fair and
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 287
open participation by other stakeholders, worsening the conflict among prevailing groups with
issues of equity, lack of transparency, and fairness, moving the discourse as far as it can be from
an ideologically-informed and innovative outcome.
The question faced today by our decision makers probably requires information that we
should had been collecting, processing, and summarizing years ago. When an elected official
asks what percentage of the population will benefit by allowing the cliff to erode versus what
percentage of the population will benefit by widening the beaches and hardening the cliffs, we
just don't know. If the elected official asks how much money it will cost to construct a jetty
versus how much money it will cost just to demolish the structures and allow for the coast to
retreat, we may know. But is this actually the right question? Perhaps a more appropriate
question will be: What is the total cost of retreat, including the cost of opportunity, the loss of
income and net benefits of the current activities, plus the cost of demolition, plus the cost of
restoration and maintenance of the new created space versus the cost just maintaining current
structures? What is a fair comparison of value? What would the next generation prefer, actual
beaches or stories about how splendorous it all was once but how we allowed it to erode on their
behalf? The current state of practice is plagued with uncertainty, and sometimes decisions are
taken based on opinions more than facts. Our decisions sometimes lack transparency, and they
come from practicality and idiosyncratic behaviors more than strong, defendable theoretical
frameworks based on data and information. Time and again I have seen some studies with a
piece-meal approach that weaken not only the results of the investigation, but the quality of the
decisions we are able to make based on those results.

COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 288
Approach
 Set of well developed studies, achieving solid technical results
 Carefully addressing the barriers of coastal adaptation implementation at each step of the
process.
 waived in a careful narrative, describing the results in terms of socio-ecological system.
 Integrated framework that can be used to explain and respond not only to a better
predicted outcomes, but also to adverse and unpredicted outcomes resulting from the
high levels of uncertainty innate to our climate changed future.
In this dissertation I presented a set of well-developed studies, not only achieving solid technical
results but carefully addressing the most common shortcomings and limitations to overcome the
barriers of coastal adaptation implementation, as noted by other authors. The result of each
study, from bathymetry to circulation or transport patterns, to fair representation of the
communities involved, was incorporated into a careful narrative, describing the results in terms
of the socio-ecological system, to integrate the balance and priorities of both the humans and the
environment. Socioeconomic and demographic conditions as well as environmental resources
were considered equally important parts of the equation in defining the vulnerability of the
system to future climate change and anthropogenic disruptions. Adaptation goals and objectives
were then formulated at the Carmen-Pajonal-Machona lacunae system level, and carefully
described in terms of relationships among the different elements of the system and the impacts
they may endure when and if certain climate change scenarios might develop. Those
observations were carefully presented under different possible scenarios, and adaptation
measures in response to those scenarios were presented in an integrated framework that can be
used to explain and respond not only to a better predicted outcome, but to also to adverse and
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 289
unpredicted outcomes resulting from the high levels of uncertainty innate to our climate-
changed future.
To summarize, the main objectives of this dissertation were to:
1. Optimize current results (state of the practice);
2. Decrease residual vulnerability of the CPM lacunae system after first-tier mitigation;
3. Lower uncertainty of decisions;
4. Reduce decision makers’ liability at the time of resource allocation; and
5. Reduce decision makers’ liability continuously if possible.
The methods used in this dissertation included:
SWOT analysis is a strategic planning technique used to help a person or organization
identify the Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats. this analysis was used to
improve the results of the first vulnerability assessment by adding robustness to the analysis with
state of the art methodology such as adaptation pathways, tipping points, turning points and other
indicators in order to address the following opportunities:

1. Decrease residual vulnerability by removing scope limitations;
2. Lower uncertainty in decisions by widening the planning scenarios spectrum (by adding
tipping points and turning points) and by reducing planning horizon constraints (triggers
and thresholds);
3. Reduce decision makers’ liability by inducing planning flexibility by using smaller,
modular, cumulative and dynamic solutions, by committing a finite amount of resources
as needed (pathways), and by avoiding future mistakes and gridlocks by planning ahead
of conflict and change; and
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 290
4. Reduce decision maker’s liability by providing after-the-fact continuous support
(monitoring), and by incorporating prefabricated contingencies and planning adequate
responses to up-coming changes (adaptive planning)
The results of this dissertation may be summarized as:
1. Re-evaluation of CPM system's vulnerability to find the left over vulnerability after the
implementation of the first-tier adaptation measures;
2. Characterization of the System by tipping points thresholds and triggers;
3. Identification of the tipping points and turning points to avoid breakage of the bar and
permanent inundation of mangroves;
4. Creation of a management plan for sandbar with a progression of measures to delay
catastrophic events after breakage;
5. A clear proposal of an adaptive pathway for implementation of adaptation measures on
the region independent from planning horizons;
6. Simultaneous presentation of linear plan in a time axis;
7. Created a map of dynamic relationships among adaptation measures;
8. Cumulative analysis of adaptation measure impacts and influence over other adaptation
measures
9. Management of the sandbar as a function of how much time the mangrove needs to
migrate in order to maximize natural resilience of the CPM lacunae system
10. Created an implementation and monitoring plan for each adaptation measure
11. Created a first approximation land use plan for the CPM lacunae area reflecting necessary
land-uses to sustain the proposed adaptation measures on the region.

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Contributions:
This dissertation develops a relational framework that accounts for the cumulative effect
of adaptation strategies implementation, defining how the results (or lack of results) of other
adaptation measures will affect the rest. It also develops an overarching decision-making
framework based on defined adaptation objectives that are measureable and comparable through
time in order to elevate the level of analysis from local to meta-analysis. In so doing, this
dissertation improves the general understanding of theory by providing a thorough and
comprehensive analysis using the CPM lacunae system as case study. The decision-making
framework proposed here has different methodological advantages that promote innovation and
inclusion. It also accounts for current adaptation implementation results. This work may thus
impact policy by opening the door to a variety of sources of funding by the World Bank. By
aligning the adaptation objectives with different government agencies or attracting further
funding from the World Bank, it supports significant investment based on a methodology known
and trusted worldwide.
My work may impact policy as well by being replicated in several lacunae systems
throughout the Gulf of Mexico, increasing the strength, connectivity, value and adaptive capacity
of the region. It provides an overarching theoretical framework capable of incorporating future
results as the practice evolves in the different disciplines and the information becomes available.
This model is able to incorporate future qualitative assessments and innovative results as they
become available. Advances in geographic spatial sciences, SLR predictions, and economic
analysis all generate results that can be incorporated into the decision making process. This
model proposes a structure able to regulate the level of detail necessary for the analysis
depending on the decision to be taken over the issue at hand.
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 292
This dissertation provides CPM decision makers with an overarching frame to support the
implementation of the different adaptation measures in the CPM lacunae system. This
implementation plan can be understood as a well-planned process based on the principle that the
needs of the community and the environment are equally important and that there is a close
relationship between the environmental services provided to the local communities by the
wetlands, mangroves, and the lagoon itself, and the anthropologic interventions that may not
only restore but improve the natural resiliency of these resources. Land use plans are proposed
where the local communities and the environment are providing each other with the resources
they need to thrive against future impacts. This cycle is closed when the local communities are
fairly compensated for their services by programs such as the payment for environmental credits,
REDD or REDD plus, recognizing that the local communities are not the only ones who benefit
from the environmental services provided by the CPM lacunae system. As highlighted in the first
chapter, those wetlands are of worldwide importance to the preservation of small and large
species of animals that use them as both refuge and bio-corridor. The majority of the wetlands
surrounding the CPM lacunae system serve, as do many of the wetlands of the world, to restore
the balance of CO2 at a global level, hopefully abating the effects of global warming and climate
change.
However, the implementation of adaptation and mitigation measures within society faces
many barriers. Deniers of climate change argue that the changes in climate are not significant or
that the changes are not due to anthropogenic influences or that people simply do not have the
knowledge or the resources to respond to the global climate change. Doing what we can to
protect both the environment and our people with the resources available is one of the most
accepted paradigms. Local communities, decision makers, and elected officials have a hard time
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 293
convincing people of the validity of expending unimaginable amounts of money to respond to a
condition or event that may or may not happen over the next hundred years. However, using a
more cautionary, small, and flexible approach supported by a robust overarching logical frame to
implement adaptation measures is a strategy that is more easily supported and accepted by those
involved. The use of pathways for adaptation and adaptive planning provides the decision
makers a place to start (with small and inexpensive approaches) that may build up to more robust
responses when and if climatic conditions change in the future. The use of tipping points,
triggers, and thresholds allows us a better perspective on what changes are coming when and
what adaptation measures we could implement as response. The framework also gives a clear
idea of when we need to start the preparation, budgeting, and implementation of those adaptation
measures. Having a clear and detailed full map of the road ahead helps us as a society to make
better decisions. Every day, new measuring techniques, new theories, and new models simulate
possible futures, and these continue to evolve. However, we are still very far away from a perfect
simulation of the future. Having a flexible and iterative approach gives us the opportunity to
incorporate new knowledge and more detailed information into the decision-making process as it
becomes available, which is better than simply waiting until we have a complete and exact set of
information before we can make a decision. Often, by the time we have enough information
about the problem to feel safe about making a decision, the best responses then too late to
implement, and the problem is too large, too expensive, or too complicated to respond properly.
This dissertation presents a decision support system that relates future events of climate
change and the effects of future development (anthropogenic activities) combined in terms of
clear consequences for both the environment and the communities. It also provides information
about possible responses to avoid undesired futures in a timely manner. It clarifies the strengths
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 294
and shortcomings of the more relevant methodologies for climate change assessments and
discusses the methodological advantages of choosing a more robust combined approach that will
continue to gain strength as time passes by and new information and/or funding becomes
available. This dissertation also explains the basis for and the need to create a new
methodological approach which combines the advantages of a top-down approach with the
urgency of bottom-up risk assessment models, providing an alternative to planners who use the
models as two different alternatives for analysis. Departing from the results of the vulnerability
analysis sponsored by the World Bank, and with urgent questions proposed by elected officials
and decision makers, a hybrid methodology was developed and applied to the Carmen-Pajonal-
Machona lacunae system as a case scenario.
The new approach looks further into the vulnerability of the system still unaddressed by
the first tier of adaptation measures proposed. From all unaddressed adaptation, special attention
was given to the vulnerabilities present in the system that will have the worst impacts in the
future (vulnerability hotspots), but also the top-down analysis (focused on direct environmental
effects) was bolstered by incorporating a bottom-up approach which highlighted the more salient
concerns of the decision makers with regards to cost, timing, and order of implementation.
Bottom-up approaches are considered salient by decision-makers because they begin the analysis
by addressing the most frequently asked policy questions. Decision makers using this model may
use the economic value of the protected natural resources as justification for the investment in
adaptation measures to protect them, and to protect the local communities which provide services
to the environment. The bottom-up risk assessment focused on examining the lack of adaptive
capacity of current socio-ecologic systems and on creating alternative or supplemental adaptation
strategies and sources of funding to avoid suffering the same damage in the future that other
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 295
communities have suffered in facing similar events. The goal was to protect the communities
simultaneously from both the most expected impacts based on previous experiences, and from
the projected impacts of specific climate change scenarios that may or may not ever happen.
This hybrid vulnerability model therefore provides the factual basis for more robust
adaptation policy-making in comparison with the current land use planning available for the area,
which is based on traditional static planning horizons. This dissertation, therefore, pushed the
envelope of the state-of-the-art planning practices for an area of worldwide ecological
importance that has been chosen as one of three pilot projects to further adapt practices in
Mexico in preparation for the fifth ICPP climate convention. The adaptation planning work
performed for the INECC and the World Bank as well as the research presented in this
dissertation apply the state-of-the-art principles and technological modeling of reflective
adaptation planning, and also pushes the state-of-the-art in adaptation practices by creating an
improved adaptation model and selecting more efficient ways to implement adaptation than just
recommending a set of ten adaptation measures. This dissertation moves from a selection of
adaptation measures under different transient climate change scenarios to the presentation of
adaptation pathways maps that will help to coordinate and properly allocate resources in a timely
manner while reforming policy practices for the most efficient pathway for the implementation
of the adaptation measures in Tabasco, an area of international ecological significance.
Chapter 2 is a literature review and presents an historical perspective of the evolution of
decision support theory specifically focused on coastal decision makers. Through the study of the
evolution of the coastal management methodologies in response to prevailing paradigms over the
last few decades, the chapter justifies the use of the current adaptive planning methodology as
state-of-the-art practice in decision support for land use and water management in coastal
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 296
environments. The chapter also describes the challenges of using these decision support tools in
the context of high uncertainty and explains how the state-of-the-art planning practices have
been advanced by the adaptive methods and use of scenario methodologies such as the ones
presented in this dissertation.
Chapter 3 carefully describes all the steps of the methodology used to conduct the World
Bank study. It outlines the logical nexus of the determination of the impacts, the decision
makers’ perspective that leads to the prioritization of the responses, as well as the creation of
adaptive plans to implement these responses. The chapter then explains the methodology used in
the adaptation measures selection process, as well as the variables, criteria, and local decision-
maker input used to select the ten top adaptation measures to be prioritized in the area. The
adaptation measures selection process serves as the foundational framework for the creation of
simple implementation plans outlining the adaptation actions necessary to implement each
measure. But more information was needed to coordinate the hundreds of adaptation actions to
be implemented in the region if the ten selected measures were implemented.
Decision makers need more information to determine how many resources and how much
time will be necessary to implement the measures, how many adaptation measures could be
implemented simultaneously for better results, and which implementation strategy could
generate efficiencies or synergy by the implementation of similar or concurrent adaptation
measures all across the region?
Chapter 4 is the analysis of vulnerability yet unaddressed after the implementation of the
first tier (top five) adaptation measures as proposed by the original study, highlighting the need
for supplementary analysis combining a series of adaptation measures to delay the breaking of
the lagoon's sandbar and maximizing the natural resilience of the system.
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 297
The total adaptation map provided in Chapter 5 provides a clear view of how many
adaptation actions may be coordinated simultaneously assuming we have full budget for
adaptation. To answer the question as of to where to start and how many resources and time it
will be necessary for the implementation of the first, and second tier adaptation measures we
may use the same map, allocating budget first to the adaptation measure that will prevent more
impacts (strengthening of the sandbar) and to the adaptation measures that will increase
resilience against the present impacts, the hotspot vulnerabilities that the community faces now,
and will worsen in the future. By consulting the Table 18 (general guide for cost and benefits of
the more common coastal adaptation measures) we can incorporate cost and benefits to the
analysis and make a priority to implement the adaptation measures that are currently impacting
the community, that will prevent the largest future impacts and that have a high ratio of cost to
benefits, and are affordable by the current administration, for example solid waste management
measures. That way the decision makers will have solid arguments to decide what adaptation
strategy to recommend first.
To answer the question: Would some of these adaptation actions divert resources from
other more significant adaptation measures or create dead-end policies in the future and waste
tax payer resources? the use of the adaptation pathways methodology is a clear example of how
to prevent dead-end policies as it signals when an adaptation measure stops being effective and
when the next stage of adaptation needs to commence. Developing adaptation pathways for each
of the adaptation bundles could prove taxing, but will guarantee a critical coastal adaptation path,
for the more efficient pathway of adaptation measures implementation and the best use of tax-
payers dollars.
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 298
If conditions change and the projected climate change scenarios are worsen or delayed,
when should priorities and policies change and transitions to a new hierarchy of adaptation
actions to be implemented? The use of the adaptation pathways technique also helps to reduce
the uncertainty about future climate change scenarios, a commits resources as the changes are
needed, but still allows time for planning constructing and developing those adaptation measures
required once the change in conditions occurs. One of the main concerns for adaptation
professionals is to create implementation plans robust enough to support decision-making under
the different possible climate change futures, and this is achieved by incremental response. For
example, the progression of measures in response to coastal erosion, from a low budget artisanal
level of sediment management using existing resources, to the deep water dredging needed to
maintain lagoon mouths open ($ 23 dollars cubic meter of sand), and the retention of sediment in
place by submerged structures (about $ 8,000 dollars per meter of construction).
Chapter 5 presents a set of possible adaptation pathways maps and an adaptive plan to
implement different sequences of adaptation measures as main strategy to keep the lagoon's
sandbar on place to allow the mangroves the maximum amount of time to adapt and retrieve
inland to higher grounds (adaptation strategy of the mangroves in response to climate change and
SLR), we maximize the system's natural resilience and minimize future impacts over the lacunae
system. Chapter 5 presents also dynamically adaptive plans for monitoring, the implementation
and performance or each proposed adaptation measure (first and second tier) in order to keep the
acceptable levels of adaptation measure performance at all times. Creating a dynamically
adaptive plan for implementation of all adaptation measures with the objective of preserving and
when possible to expand the current inventory of wetlands and mangroves on the area adding
natural resilience to the system and delaying future impacts giving more time to society to better
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 299
implement a wider range of adaptation measures to minimize the future impacts over the lacunae
system by creating climate change response capacity both in the natural and in the anthropogenic
components of the system. However, when new and more accurate information becomes
available, the pathway selected for adaptation may no longer be the more efficient. To introduce
adaptation measure changes in a timely manner it is necessary to incorporate an element of
monitoring and evaluation (adaptive policymaking) when delivering adaptation plans to the
decision makers and provide them with the opportunity to maneuver timely and safely from one
adaptive action to another and to depart move from static plans based on one particular scenario
to dynamic plans able to incorporate contingencies, policy changes, and new information over
time. Such plans must transition from one adaptation action to the other in the most efficient way
as certain triggers are reached and not as fiscal, political or time periods are reached. The
adaptation pathways methodology also helps identify those points where transition to new
policies, adaptation measures, or adaptation actions is necessary. The use of adaptation tipping
points as triggers for action allows the possibility of creating a flexible adaptive framework that
responds to uncertainty by maintaining a strategic vision of possible futures while committing
only to short-term actions and establishing a robust framework to guide future actions. Adaptive
pathways maps are also used to expresses dependency among measures showing how some
changes in the system will introduce challenges for some adaptation measures to meet their
adaptation targets and to offer alternatives for a more robust and dynamic planning of the lagoon
system (adaptive planning).
In summary, this dissertation translates the significance of the particular findings and
specific conclusions of the analysis within the context of current research and best practices,
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 300
making an original contribution to practice and supporting policymakers, public managers, and
other stakeholders in the decision-making process.
Future research would help improve the current models by incorporating more detailed
quantitative information as it becomes available, assembling models with more level of detail
and incorporating the quantitative results of other studies and other projects happening in the
region. The large methodological advantage of the current model is that is able to incorporate the
results of other disciplines and to project scenarios provided by other probabilistic, deterministic
or heuristic approaches to mention some. The incorporation of those results into future versions
of this model will improve the resolution of the answers provided by the decision model in a
effort to provide decision makers and elected officials with a continuous and adequate level of
support even on the face of deep uncertainly.
Summary
This dissertation developed a overarching decision making framework based on defined
adaptation objectives that are measureable and comparable trough time in order to elevate the
level of analysis from local to meta-analysis.
 Developed a relational framework that accounts for cumulative effect of adaptation
strategies implementation defining how the results (or lack of results) of other adaptation
measures will affect the rest.
 The framework is capable to incorporate future results as the practice evolves in the
different disciplines and the information becomes available.
 Allowed "leapfrogging" of adaptation planning on the Gulf of Mexico.
 It is replicable in hundreds of lacunae systems along the Gulf of Mexico increasing the
strength, connectivity, value and adaptive capacity of the region.
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 301
 The work impacts policy by opening the door to a variety of sources of funding by
aligning the adaptation objectives with different government agencies and attracting
further funding from the world bank, highlighting to a large cost benefit investment
based in worldwide known and trusted methodology.
 My work improves the general understanding of the theory by providing a through and
comprehensive analysis using the CPM lacunae system as case study. The decision
making framework here proposed uses different methodological advantages that promote
innovation and inclusion.
COSTAL RESILIENCE BY ANTICIPATING CHANGE 302
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Abstract (if available)

Abstract Management of the coastal zone under climate change and deep uncertainty requires robust, flexible and adaptive policy-making based on the effectiveness of the adaptation measures against always changing conditions. This dissertation presents an application of dynamic adaptation pathways, triggered by tipping points, turning points, and other environmental and socioeconomic indicators to increase the resiliency of the Carmen-Pajonal-Machona lacunae system against Climate Change, erosion, salinization, pollution, and against impacts of future development. This application may be expanded to the Gulf of Mexico including the US and other significant environments in the Meso-America corridor in more than seven countries.

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Creator Avendano, Claudia E. (author)

Core Title Resilience by anticipating change: simple and robust decision making for coastal adaptation planners, communities and elected officials

School School of Policy, Planning and Development

Degree Doctor of Policy, Planning & Development

Degree Program Policy, Planning, and Development

Publication Date 05/10/2019

Defense Date 07/18/2018

Publisher University of Southern California (original), University of Southern California. Libraries (digital)

Tag adaptation measures,adaptation pathways,adaptive planning,bottom-up,climate change,DPSIR,drivers,dynamic adaptive policy pathways,hedging actions,hybrid models,impacts,mitigating actions,monitoring programs,OAI-PMH Harvest,policy-making,pressures,resiliency,risk and vulnerability assessments,robust decision support system,sea level rise,signposts,system response,system state,thresholds,tipping points,top-down,transient scenarios,triggers,turning points

Format application/pdf (imt)

Language English

Contributor Electronically uploaded by the author (provenance)

Advisor Robertson, Peter (committee chair), Brennan, Brian (committee member), Schmitz, Donald (committee member), Schweitzer, Lisa (committee member)

Creator Email cavendan@usc.edu,claudia.avendanotorres@usc.edu

Permanent Link (DOI) https://doi.org/10.25549/usctheses-c89-156455

Unique identifier UC11660344

Identifier etd-AvendanoCl-7442.pdf (filename),usctheses-c89-156455 (legacy record id)

Legacy Identifier etd-AvendanoCl-7442.pdf

Dmrecord 156455

Document Type Dissertation

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Rights Avendano, Claudia E.

Type texts

Source University of Southern California (contributing entity), University of Southern California Dissertations and Theses (collection)

Access Conditions The author retains rights to his/her dissertation, thesis or other graduate work according to U.S. copyright law. Electronic access is being provided by the USC Libraries in agreement with the a...

Repository Name University of Southern California Digital Library

Repository Location USC Digital Library, University of Southern California, University Park Campus MC 2810, 3434 South Grand Avenue, 2nd Floor, Los Angeles, California 90089-2810, USA