The logics of Chinese strategies

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Content The Logics of Chinese Strategies
by
Paul S Orner
A Dissertation Presented to the
FACULTY OF THE USC GRADUATE SCHOOL
UNIVERSITY OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
In Partial Fulfillment of the
Requirements for the Degree
DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY
(POLITICAL SCIENCE & INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS)

August 2022

Copyright 2022 Paul S Orner

Asset Metadata

Creator Orner, Paul Scott (author)

Core Title The logics of Chinese strategies

Contributor Electronically uploaded by the author (provenance)

School College of Letters, Arts and Sciences

Degree Doctor of Philosophy

Degree Program Political Science and International Relations

Degree Conferral Date 2022-08

Publication Date 06/23/2022

Defense Date 04/01/2022

Publisher University of Southern California (original), University of Southern California. Libraries (digital)

Tag alliance politics,Indo-Pacific security,OAI-PMH Harvest,U.S.-China competition

Language English

Advisor Kang, David (committee chair), Baggott-Carter, Erin (committee member), Dekle, Robert (committee member)

Creator Email orner@usc.edu,plorner11@gmail.com

Permanent Link (DOI) https://doi.org/10.25549/usctheses-oUC111345528

Unique identifier UC111345528

Legacy Identifier etd-OrnerPaulS-10784

Document Type Dissertation

Rights Orner, Paul Scott

Type texts

Source 20220623-usctheses-batch949 (batch), University of Southern California (contributing entity), University of Southern California Dissertations and Theses (collection)

Access Conditions The author retains rights to his/her dissertation, thesis or other graduate work according to U.S. copyright law. Electronic access is being provided by the USC Libraries in agreement with the author, as the original true and official version of the work, but does not grant the reader permission to use the work if the desired use is covered by copyright. It is the author, as rights holder, who must provide use permission if such use is covered by copyright. The original signature page accompanying the original submission of the work to the USC Libraries is retained by the USC Libraries and a copy of it may be obtained by authorized requesters contacting the repository e-mail address given.

Repository Name University of Southern California Digital Library

Repository Location USC Digital Library, University of Southern California, University Park Campus MC 2810, 3434 South Grand Avenue, 2nd Floor, Los Angeles, California 90089-2810, USA

Repository Email uscdl@usc.edu

Abstract (if available)

Abstract Chinese elites have determined that engaging in assertive behavior will not only allow them to secure their interests in the Indo-Pacific, but will also allow them to (counterintuitively) improve relations with the states of the region. After engaging in a fairly successful Charm Offensive in the early to mid-2000s, Chinese strategists observed that in assuaging the fears of the region, Beijing had unintentionally undermined its ability to deter territorial incursions. China’s gentle approach had actually worsened territorial disputes and encouraged states to collaborate with the US. I introduce a framework of relative commitment that explains China’s decision to engage in coercive tactics based on Chinese perceptions of US alliance dynamics and alliance cohesion. Specifically, Beijing engages in assertive behavior when it believes it can expose weak US commitments and undermine America's reputation as a reliable security guarantor in the Indo-Pacific. China’s assertive turn is not due to runaway nationalism or elite hubris, but is the result of Chinese strategists’ nuanced understanding of both International Relations theory and the geopolitical interests of Indo-Pacific states. China is no longer attempting to quash the China Threat narrative - it is actively leveraging regional anxieties to secure its interests in the Indo-Pacific.