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University of Southern California Dissertations and Theses
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Two essays on major macroeconomic shocks in the Japanese economy: demographic shocks and financial shocks
(USC Thesis Other)
Two essays on major macroeconomic shocks in the Japanese economy: demographic shocks and financial shocks
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Content
Doctoral Dissertation Two Essays on Major Macroeconomic Shocks in the Japanese Economy: Demographic Shocks and Financial Shocks Takemasa Oda University of Southern California December, 2013 1 Contents Chapter 1. Introduction Chapter 2. Macroeconomic Impact of Population Aging in Japan: A Perspective from an Overlapping Generations model 1. Introduction 8 2. Model 2.1 Demographics 11 2.2 Households 12 2.3 Firm 15 2.4 Social Security System 16 2.5 General Government 17 2.6 Competitive Equilibrium 17 3. Data, Calibration, and Assumptions 3.1 Constant Parameters 19 3.2 Inputs of Exogenous Variables for 1982-2000 and Beyond 19 3.3 Steady State Assumptions 20 4. Quantitative Findings 4.1 Baseline Long-Term Projection 21 4.2 Counterfactual Simulation 22 5. Extension to an Open Economy Setting 27 6. Conclusion 29 Appendix A. Construction of Exogenous Variables 31 Appendix B. List of Equations 34 Appendix C. Sensitivity Analysis 36 References 40 Tables and Figures 43-60 2 Chapter 3. Financial Shocks and Japan’s Business Cycles 1. Introduction 62 2. Data and Stylized Facts 2.1 Data 64 2.2 Business Cycle Properties in Japan 66 3. Model 3.1 Household 67 3.2 Firm 68 3.3 Government 71 3.4 Competitive Equilibrium 71 4. Quantitative Analysis 4.1 Parameterization 72 4.1.1 Calibration 4.1.2 Maximum Likelihood Estimation 4.1.3 Dynamic Simulation and Second Moments 4.2 Variance Decomposition 77 4.3 Historical Decomposition 78 4.4 Sensitivity Analysis 80 5. Conclusion 82 Appendix A. Data 83 Appendix B. Linearized System 84 Appendix C. Kalman Filter and Likelihood 85 References 87 Tables and Figures 89-95 Acknowledgements / ( 7 ; , 9 5 ;96+ < * ;0 6 5 &/, (7(5,:, ,*6564 @ ,?7 ,90,5*,+ ( 7 96365.,+ ,*65640* :3<47 (-;,9 ; /, *63 3(7:, 6- ( ) <))3, , *6564 @ 05 ;/, ,(93@ : 647(9,+ >0;/ 6;/,9 * 6<5 ; 90,: (7( 59,*69+,+ /0./ 9,(3 " .96 >;/ 05 ;/, : ) <; 36 > 9 ,(3 " .96 >;/ 05 ;/, : (5+ : (5+ 9 ,:7 , *;0= ,3@ ,:0+,: 36 > , *65640* .96 >;/ (7(5 / ( : ) ,,5 -(*,+ >0;/ ( - ,> ,*65640* * /(33,5.,: (5+ (+= , 9:0;0,: :05*, ; /, ,(93@ : ( **<4 <3(;,+ .6 = , 954,5 ; +,); 7 67<3(;065 (.05. 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D 8 5 > E=2 5 B ? 6 @ 5B C?>C 1754 3?>35@D E1< < I 49F9454 2 I 9> 1 < 965 D 12 <5 C 1> 9 > D5B>1D9 ? >1< 3 ?= @1B9 C?> 9 > * 12< 5 E C54 2 IKF 5175 < 9 6 5 D 12< 5 C @ B? F 94 5 4 2 I - & M <? 2 1 < 5 1 <D8 & 2 C5BF 1D?BI 1D1 ( 5@ ?C9 D ?BI #9 6 5 * 1 2< 5 N ? B D 85 41D1 ?> D85 ! 1@1>5C5 C E BF9F 1< B1D5 E C 54 9> D8 5 = ? 4 5< EC54 D85 4 1D 1 ? > 2 I ?>5 175 @ ?@E< 1D9 ? > @B ? F 9 4 54 2 I D85 $ 9 > 9 C D B I ? 6 > D 5B > 1< R 19 BC 1>4 ?= =E >9 31D9 ?> 1>4 D 85 % 1 D9 ?>1< >CD9 D ED5 ? 6 ' ?@E< 1D9 ? > 1 >4 )? 39 1< )53EB9 D I ( 5 C51B3 8 ' )) - 9 D89 > 1 7 B? G D 8 1 33?E> D 9 > 7 6 B1= 5 G ? B; 6 ?B 9 > CD1>35 $ 1 441< ? >9 5D 1< 1>1< IJ5 D 85 5R53DC ?6 @ ? @E<1D9? > 1 79 >7 ?> 53?>?= 9 3 7 B ? GD 8 K>1>391< = 1 B ; 5DC 1 >4 @E2< 93 K>1>35 9 > D 85 E B? 1B51 3 ?>C9 45B9 >7 D85 6 5BD9 < 9 D I B1D5 < ?>75F9 D I 1 >4 9 = = 9 7B1D9 ? > 2 5 5> 9> F 5 CD971D54 21C54 ?> 1 > & =? 4 5< 9> D G ? CDB1>4C ?6 <9D5B1DEB5 *85 ?>5 C DB1>4 6? 3EC5C ?> =? F 5=5> DC 9> D85 C1 F9>7 B1D5 9> !1@1> *85 !1@1>5C5 C1 F9>7 B 1D5 8 1C 49C@<1 I 5 4 1 4 ? G > G 1B4 DB5>4 C9>35 D85 C G89<5 9 D G 1C = E 3 8 89785B D81> D 85 + ) C1 F9 >7 B1D5 9> D85 @1CD 85> 5 D 1< 1>4 B1E> 5D 1< 45=?>CDB1D5 D81D D 89C 3 1> 2 5 @1BD91<<I 133?E> D54 6 ?B 2 I @ ?@E<1D9?> 179>7 &D85B D 89>7C 2 59>7 5 AE1< C9 >35 1 <? G 5 B C1 F 9>7 B1D5 B5CE<DC 9 > <5CC 3 1@9D1< 133E= E <1D9?> D 85 C1 F9>7 B 1D5 4 53<9>5 1CC? 39 1D54 G9D8 @ ?@E<1D9?> 179>7 =1 I 3 1EC5 ?ED@ED 453<9>5 *85 ?D85B CDB1>4 6?B 5H1=@<5 8?B9 5D 1< 6? 3EC5C ?> D85 5R53DC ?6 @ ?@E<1D9?> 179>7 ?> D85 K C31< 21<1>35 9 >3<E49>7 @E 2<93 @ 5>C9?> 1>4 8 51<D8 9 >CEB1>35 CICD5=C 1C G 5<< 1C ?> 452D CECD19>129<9D I 6 45K39DC 9 > D85C5 CICD5=C 1B5 D ? C?=5 5HD5> D K >1>354 2 I D85 75>5B1< 7? F 5B>=5> D D8B?E78 49CD?BD9?>1< D1H5C D85> @ ?@E<1D9?> 179>7 =1 I C5F 5 B5<I 41=@ 5> @B9F 1D5 5 3?>?=93 13D9F9D I > D89C CDE4I G 5 9 > F 5CD971D5 A E1> D 9D1D9F 5<I D85 ? F 5 B1<< 9=@13D ?6 @ ?@E<1 D9?> 179>7 ?> ?ED@ED 1>4 K C31< F 1B912<5C 6B?= D85 C 1>4 2 5I ?>4 &EB CDE4I @B? F 945C 1 3 <51B @93 DEB5 ?6 5 3?>?=93 ?ED<? ?;C 9 > 179>7 3?E> DB95C EC9>7 1 6 E<<L54754 & =? 45< 3 1<92B1D54 D ? D85 !1@1>5C5 53?>?= I G 85B5 @ ?@E<1D9?> 179>7 9C @B? 3 5549>7 1D D85 6 1CD5CD @ 135 9> D 85 G ?B<4 &EB 1>1<IC9C 9>3?B@ ?B1D5C D G ? >5G 9 >7B5495> DC 9> D? ?D85BG9C5 C D1> 41B4 & =? 4 5<C 9BCD G 5 5H@<939D<I 9> DB? 4 E35 @ E2<93 =54931< 2 5 >5KDC @ B? F9454 2 I 1 8 51<D8 9 >CEB1>35 CICD5= ) 9>35 D85 3 EBB5> D 851<D8 9>CEB1>35 CICD5= 9 > ! 1@1> 9C @1BD<I ?B71> 9J54 9> 1 @ 1 I 1CI ?E7? CD I<5 C9=9<1B D ? D85 @E2<93 @ 5 >C9?> CICD5= 1> 9>3B51C5 9> @E2<9 3 =54931< 2 5>5KDC 4E5 D ? @ ?@E<1D9?> 179>7 B19C5C D85 @1 IB?<< 9 >3?=5 D1H B 1D5 1R53D9>7 8 ?EC5 8?<4CN 3 8 ?935 ?6 3?>CE=@D9?> 1>4 <59CEB5 $?CD 5H9CD9>7 CDE495C 4? >?D 5H@<939D<I 9>3?B@ ? B1D5 D89C 1C@ 53D 1>4 D 8 E C @ ?D5> D91<<I E>45B5CD9=1D5 D 85 9=@13D ?6 @ ?@E<1D9?> 179>7 ?> ?ED@ ED 1>4 K C31< F 1B912<5C )53?>4 G 5 14?@D D85 M2 ?>49>ED9<9D IN C@ 539K31D9?> 45F 5<?@ 5 4 9 > 1>C5> 1>4 C = ? B5 B535> D G ?B; ; 541 1 >4 )19 D ? 1 >1< I J5 21C54 ? > 1 4I>1= 9 3 C D? 3 8 1 CD93 75>5B1< 5 AE 9<92 B9E= = ? 45< D85 9 = @ <9 31D9?>C ? 6 4 5= ?7B1@89 3 3 81>75C 6?B B 51< 9 > D 5B5CD B 1D5 4 I> 1= 9 3 C 9 > @ ?CDG 1 B ! 1@1> B ? = 1 49 R5B5> D @ 5 BC@ 5 3D9 F 5 E : 9 ;9 5D 1< 3?>4E3D 1 > 5 = @ 9 B 9 3 1< 9 > F 5 CD 9 7 1D9 ? > ? 6 8 ? G @ ? @E< 1D9 ? > 179 >7 1R53DC 8?EC58?< 4CN 1 CC5D @ ? BD6?<9 ? 1 << ? 3 1D9?>C @ 1BD9 3E< 1 B<I 2 5D G 55> CD? 3 ;C 1 >4 ?D85B 1 CC5DC 9 > !1@1> ? B9 ?; 1 ? B9 ?; 1 1 >4 - 1 D1>12 5 5;< 5 1 >4 " ? 71 1 B 5 5H1= @< 5C ?6 C?@89 C D9 31D54 5 = @ 9 B 9 3 1< G ? B; @B? F 9 4 9 > 7 5F9 45>35 6 ?B D85 ! 1@1>5C5 C 1 F 9 > 7 B 1D5 4 5 3<9 > 5 5 ;< 5 1>4 " ?JE 5 D 1 < ? R5B 1 2B?14 4 9 C 3ECC9 ? > S = B?8 ? B? T 7<E 1 >4 )E4? 1 2 1 >4 B 1E> 1 >4 !?9 > 5C E D9 < 9 J5 >5? 3 < 1 CC9 31< 7 B? G D 8 1 >4 & 6 B 1= 5G ?B;C D? 1 44B 5CC D 85C5 9 C CE5C 6 B ?= F 1 B 9 ?EC 1>7< 5C $ ? CD CDE49 5 C ? > D 85 !1@1>5C5 53?>?=I 9 > 3< E49 >7 85>7 5 D 1 < 1>4 B 1 E> 5D 1< 1 2CDB13D S =B?8?B? T 7<E G85> 9 >3?B@ ?B1D9>7 7? F 5 B>=5> D 2 ?>4C 9> D? D85 =? 45< > !1@1> D85 B5DEB> ?> 7? F 5 B>=5> D 2 ?>4C 81C 2 55> < ? G 5B D81> D85 B5DEB> ?> @ B9F 1D5 31@9D1 < 1>4 D 85 C@B514 81C G 945>54 C9>35 D85 =944<5 ?6 D85 C 9> C@9D5 ?6 D 85 =1CC9F 5 9 >3B 51C5 9> @E2<93 452D *89C 6 13D B 5L53DC 1 CDB?>7 @B565B5>35 6?B 8 ?<49>7 7? F 5 B>=5> D 2 ?>4C 9 > D 85 4?=5CD93 @B9F 1D5 C53D?B $?CD 5H9CD9>7 CDE495C 1CCE=5 D81D 8?EC58?<4C 1B5 9 >49R5B 5> D 2 5D G 5 5> 7? F 5B>=5> D 2 ?>4C 1>4 @ B9F 1D5 31@9D1< ? G 5 F 5 B D89C 1CCE=@D9?> 619<C D ? 3 1@D EB5 D 85 13DE1< =? F 5 =5> D C 9 > D85 B5DEB> ?> 7? F 5 B>=5> D 2 ?>4C 1>4 85>35 9 > D85 3?BB5C@ ?>49>7 9> D5B5CD B5@1 I=5> DC > < ?>7D5B= @ B? :53D9?>C 5C@ 5 391<<I D89C 1CCE=@D9?> 75>5B 1D5C1D5>45>3ID? ? F 5B5CD9=1D5 7? F 5B>=5> D 4 52D <5F 5<C 1>4 D 85 3?BB5C@ ?>49>7 >1D9?>1< 2EB4 5> CCE=9>7 @ 5B653D 6?B5C978 D 9 > D85 =? 45< G 5 3?=@ED5 D 85 5AE9<92B9E= D B1>C 9D9?> @ 1D8C ?6 1<<? 31D9?>C 1>4 613D?B @B935C 6B?= ?> G 1B4 & EB =? 45< CE335CC6E<<I B5@<931D5C D 85 13DE1< D 9=5 @ 1D8C ?6 %' 1>4 ?D85B =19> =13B? 53?>?=93 F 1B912<5C CE3 8 1C D 8 5 > 1D9?>1< C1 F9>7 B 1D5 1>4 D85 B 51< 9 > D 5B5CD B 1D5 E @ E > D 9< > 1449D9?> G 5 = 1; 5 G 8 1D G 5 31<< 1> ?ED?6C1=@<5 21C5<9>5 @B? : 53D9?> 6 B?= ?> G 1B4 21C54 ?> 1 C35>1B9? G85B5 6EDEB5 @1D8C 6?B 5H?75>?EC F 1 B912<5C 1B5 @ <1EC92<I 3 8 ?C5> * ? 5F 1<E1D5 AE1> D9D1 D9F 5 <I D85 9=@13D ?6 @ ? @E<1D9?> 179>7 ?> D85 53?>?= I G 5 C9= E<1D5 D 85 =? 45< E >45B 8 I @ ?D85D93 1< C35>1B9?C 9 > G893 8 @ ?@E<1D9?> 179>7 9C 1BB5CD54 9> D5B=C ?6 K BCD D 85 65BD9<9D I B 1D5 1>4 D85> <?>75F9D I - 5 3?=@1B5 D 85 5AE9<92B9E= @1D8C 75>5B1D54 E>45B D85 1<D5B>1D9F 5 C35>1B9 ?C G9D8 D8?C5 ?2D19>54 E>45B D 85 21C5<9>5 C35>1B9? > ?B45B D ? 3 <1B96I D85 =53 81>9C= D8 B?E78 G 893 8 @ ?@E<1D9?> 179>7 1R53DC 5 3?>?=93 7B? GD8 G 5 49F945 D85 5R53DC ?6 @ ?@E<1D9 ?> 179>7 9> D? 65BD9<9D I 4B9F 5 > 5 R53DC 1>4 <?>75F9D I 4B9F 5 > 5 R53DC - 5 5F 1<E1D5 >?D ?> <I D85 5 R53DC ?> 6 B ?= D85 @E2< 9 3 851< D 8 9 > CEB 1 >35 C ICD5= 6 5G 5H35@D 9 ?>C 6 ? B 5 H1= @ < 5 8 ?B9 5 D 1 < 9 > D B? 4E35 !1@1>5C5 @E2< 9 3 851< D8 9 > CEB 1 >35 9 > 1 > & = ? 4 5< * 859 B = ? 45< C 8 ? G 5F 5B 1 C CE= 5 1> 5H?75>?EC < 12 ?B CE@@< I 1 >4 1B 5 D 85B 5 6 ? B 5 9 = =E >5 6 B ?= D85 4 9 C D?B D 9 ? >1B I 5R53DC ? 6 @ ?@E< 1D9 ?> 179 >7 ?> 53?>?= 9 3 7B ? G D8 D8B?E78 D 85 C? 39 1< C53EB9 D I D1H 1 >C5> 1>4 = B ?8?< ?7< E 9 > DB? 4E35 D 85 M 2 ?>49 > ED9 < 9 D I N 9 > D ? 1 > 5? 3< 1CC9 31< 7 B? G D 8 = ? 4 5< G 9 D8 1 B5@B5C5> D1D9 F 5 175> D > 31B B I 9 > 7 ? ED ?EB < ?>7 D 5 B = @B ? : 53D9? >C G85B 5 D 85 7? F 5 B > = 5 > D 452D D? % ' B 1 D9 ? 9 C 5 >4?75>?EC< I 45D5B = 9 > 54 G 5 K>4 D81D D89 C 1CCE= @ D9 ?> 9 = @ 5 45C D 85 3?> F 5B 75>35 ? 6 D 85 3?= @ED 54 5AE9< 92B 9E = D B 1 >C9 D 9 ? > @1D 8 * 89 C C E775CDC D 81D 9 > D B ? 4E39 >7 D 8 5 C @B 514 2 5D G 55> @B 9 F 1D5 3 1@9 D 1< 1 >4 7? F 5 B > = 5 > D 2 ? >4C 9 C 3B E391 < 6 ? B 5 F 1 < E 1D9 > 7 D 85 CECD19 >129 < 9 D I ?6 7? F 5 B>= 5 > D 452D )9>35 D 85 I ? E>75CD 8 ?EC58?< 4 C 9> ? EB = ? 45< 1 B 5 I 5 1B C ? <4 G 5 4 5K>5 D85 M6 5 BD9<9D I B1D5N 9 > D 8 5 = ? 4 5 < 1C D85 7 B ? GD8 B 1D5 ? 6 D 85 175 @ ? @E<1D9? > *89C 45K>9 D 9 ? > 9C 4 9 R 5B 5> D 6 B ? = 3 ?= = ? > 4 5K>9 D9 ?>C ? 6 D 85 M D ?D1< 6 5 BD9 < 9 D I B 1D5N 5 H@B5CC9 > 7 D 85 1 F 5B175 > E =2 5B ?6 3 8 9 < 4B 5> @ 5 B G ?= 1> 4EB 9 >7 85B < 9 6 5D9 = 5 %' 7 B? GD8 2ED 1<C? D 85 5R53DC ?> %' @ 5B 31@9D1 9> ?B45B D ? 9 C?<1D5 D85 =53 8 1>931< 9=@13D ?6 <? G 5 B @ ?@E<1D9?> 7B? GD8 > 1449D9?> D? C9= E <1D9?>C 2 1C54 ?> 1 3< ?C54 5 3?>?= I =? 45< G 5 5H@<?B5 D85 =13B? 53?>?=93 9 =@13D ?6 @ ?@E<1D9?> 179>7 9> 1> ?@ 5> 5 3?>?= I C5DD9>7 G 9D8 3 ?=@<5D5 31@9D1< =?29<9D I * ? D89C 5>4 G 5 5HD5>4 ?EB 21C5<9> 5=?45< D? 1 C=1<< ?@ 5 > 5 3?>?= I =? 45< D ? 3 ?=@ED5 D 85 B5C@ ?>C5C ?6 ; 5I =13B? 5 3?>?=93 F 1B 912<5C D? 1 453<9>5 9> D85 6 5BD9<9D I B1D5 1>4 1> 9 >3B51C5 9> <?>75F9D I *85 B5=19>45B ?6 D89C @ 1@ 5B 9C ?B71>9J54 1C 6?<<? G C )53D9?> 45C3B92 5 C D 8 5C5DE@ ?6 ?EB =? 4 5< ) 53D9?> 5H@<19>C D85 41D1 C?EB35C 1>4 ?EB 31<92B1D9?> =5D8? 4? <?7I ) 53D9?> @ B? F945C ?EB AE1> D9D1D9F 5 K>49>7C ?> D 85 =13B? 53?>?=93 9=@13D ?6 !1@1>N C @ ?@E<1D9?> 179>7 ) 53D9?> 5HD5>4C D85 = ? 4 5< 9> D? 1> ?@ 5> 53?>?= I C5DD9>7 ) 53D9?> 3 ?>3<E45C 0%&- > D89C C53D9?> G 5 @B5C5> D ?EB & =? 45< *85 53?>?= I 3 ?>C9CDC ?6 6 ?EB D I@ 5C ?6 175> DC 8?EC58?<4C K B= C? 391< C53EB9D I CICD5= 1>4 75>5B1< 7? F 5 B>=5> D - 5 9 >3? B@ ?B1D5 D G ? >5G 651DEB5C 9> D? 1> ?D85BG9C5 C D1>41B4 & = ? 4 5< 9 1 @E2<93 =54931< 2 5>5KD @ B? F9454 2 I D 85 851<D8 9>CEB1>35 CICD5= 1>4 99 1 M 2 ? >49>ED9<9D I N C@ 5 39K31D9?> 1C 4 5F 5<?@ 5 4 9 > 1>C5> 1>4 S =B?8?B? T 7<E &. 0(3"1)* $4 *85 D9=5 @ 5 B9? 4 ?6 D85 =? 4 5< 9C 49C3B5D5 1>4 1>> E1< *85 5 3?>?= I 3?>C9CDC ?6 75>5B1D9?>C ?6 49R5B5> D 175C 4 5>?D54 2 I ' >5138@5B9?4 , 1 >5G 75>5B1D9?> 1754 9 C 2 ?B> 9> D? D85 5 3?>?= I G89<5 D85 ?D85B 5H9CD9>7 75>5B1D9?>C 5 13 8 C896D 6?B G1B4 2I ?>5 *85 ?<45CD 75>5B1D9?> ' G893 8 G 5 1CCE=5 1C D85 =1H9= E= 175 4 95C ?ED 45D5B=9>9CD931<<I 9> D85 C E2C5AE5> D @ 5B9? 4 *85 7B? GD8 B1D5 ?6 D85 > 5G 75>5B1D9?> 175 8?E C58?<4C 9> @5B9?4 , 9C 45>?D54 2 I G893 8 G 5 G9<< 85B516D5B B 565B D? 1C D85 65BD9<9D I B 1D5 9 > D85 =? 45< *85> D 85 175 @ ?@E<1D9?> 9 > @ 5B9? 4 , 5H@B5CC54 1C 9 C 79F 5> 2 I << 8 ?EC58?<4C 6 135 1 =?BD1<9D I B 9C; D 81D 9 C 3 ?==?> G9D89> D85 C 1=5 3 ?8?BD 2 ED =1 I 4 9R5B 13B?CC 3?8?BDC *85I CEBF9F 5 D ? D 85 CE2C5AE5> D @ 5 B9? 4 G9D8 3?>49D9?>1< CE BF9F 1< @B?2129<9D I G 893 8 9C D85 @B?2129<9D I D81D 8?EC58?<4C 1754 ' 9> @ 5 B9? 4 , CEBF9F 5 D ? 2 53?=5 175 ' 8?EC58?<4C 9> @ 5 B9? 4 , %?D5 D81D 2 I 1CCE=@D9?> *85> D 85 @ ?@E<1D9?> 1>4 3?8?BD C81B5 ?6175 ' 8?EC58?<4C 9> @ 5 B9? 4 , 1B5 5H@B5CC54 1C 6?<<? G C 6?B ' 064&)0- % 4 +> D9< =1>41D?BI B5D9B5=5> D 1D 175 ' 8 ?EC58?<4C CE@@<I < 12 ?B D? KB=C 1>4 5 1B> G 175 9>3?=5 133?B49>7 D ? D859B 175C@ 539K3 < 12 ?B 5Q395>3I 6B?= 175 D ? -?B;9>7 8?EC58?<4C @1 I > ?D ?><I D85 ECE1< < 12 ?B 9>3?=5 D1H 2ED 1<C? @ 1 I B?<< 9>3?=5 D1H5C 3? F 5 B9>7 C? 391< C53EB9D I 2 5>5KDC > 1=5<I D859B @E2<93 @ 5>C9?> 1>4 =54931< 2 5>5KDC 9>5F5BI @5B9?4 ?EC58?<4C 1754 ' G9D84B1 G 6B?= D85 < 12 ?B 6?B35 1>4 B 5359F 5 @ E2<93 @ 5 >C9?> 2 5>5KDC 6B?= D85 C? 391< C 53EB9D I CICD5= ?EC58?<4C ? G> 31@9D1< 1>4 B5> D 9D D? KB=C D8B?E78?ED D859B <9F 5 C *85I 1<C? @ EB3 8 1C5 ?>5@ 5 B9? 4 7? F 5 B>=5> D 2 ? >4C 9 CCE54 2 I D 85 75>5B1< 7? F 5B> =5> D 1>4 B5359F 5 9 > D 5B5CD @ 1 I =5> D C 6 B?= D85 75>5B1< 7? F 5B>=5> D *85I 3 ?> CE=5 D85 B 5CD ?6 D859B 9>3?=5 > @ 5 B9? 4 > 5G<I 2 ?B> 8?EC58?<4C G 8?C5 175 9 C ' 9> 1 C E2C5AE5> D @ 5B9? 4 , ' 3 8 ? ? C5 C5AE5>35C ?6 3 ?>CE=@D9?> < 12 ?B 3 1@9D1< 1>4 2 ?>4 8 ?<49>7C D? =1H 9=9J5 D 859B 5H@ 53D54 < 965D9=5 E D9<9D I 49C3?E> D54 2 I D 85 CE2 : 53D9F 5 49C3?E> D 613D?B - # % " E BB5> D <I = 1> 41D?BI B5D9B5= 5 > D 9> !1@ 1 > 5 C5 K B = C 9C > ? D > 535CC1B9<I 1D 17 5 2ED 9 C E CE1< < I C5D 2 5 D G 55> 1>4 > ?EB @ B? :53D9?>C 8 ? G 5F 5B D 85B5 9C <9 DD<5 < 1 2 ? B C E@@< 9 5 4 2 I D 8?C5 1754 D? * 8 5 B 5CE< DC ?6 D85 1 >1< I C9 C = 1 I D85B56?B5 2 5 5 H@ 53D54 D? 3 8 1>75 < 9 DD< 5 5F 5> 9 6 G 5 < ? G 5 B D 85 1CCE= 5 4 175 ?6 = 1 > 4 1 D?BI B5D9B5= 5 > D 2 I 1 6 5G I 5 1BC CE2 : 53D D ? D85 2E475D 3 ?>CDB19> DC ? F 5B D859B <965D9=5 # ( " + ( + " / % 6?B ' # ( " + ( + " *" 6?B ' G85B5 # 9C 3?>CE=@D9?> 1>4 % 9C <12 ?B 9 >@ED ( 1>4 " 45>?D5 31@9D1< 1>4 2 ?>4 8?<49>7C ?6 175 ' 8?EC58?<4C 1D D85 2 579>>9>7 ?6 @ 5 B9? 4 , / 9C D85 G 175 B1D5 + 9C D85 2 5 6?B5D1H B51< B1D5 ?6 B5DEB> ?> @ B9F 1D5 31@9D1< 1>4 + 9C D85 16D5BD1H B51< B1D5 ?6 B5DEB> ?> 7? 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G C 1D D85 B1D5 ?6 $ 9> 5F 5BI @5B9?4 $ > 5AE9<92B9E= D 85 613D?B @B935C 1B5 79F 5 > 2 I + / G85B5 9C D85 45@B5391D9?> B1D5 ?6 @B9F 1D5 3 1@9D1< 77B571D5 4 5=1>4 6 ?B 31@9D1< 1>4 <12 ?B 9 >@EDC 1B5 5AE1<9J54 D ? 177B571D5 CE@@<I ?6 D85C5 @B9=1BI 9 >@EDC C? 1C D? 3<51B D 85 B5C@ 53D9F 5 =1B; 5 DC 9> 5F 5BI @ 5B9? 4 ( % 5B5 D85 5F ?<ED9?> ?6 D85 177B571D5 3 1@9D1< CD? 3 ; 9 C 79F 5> 2 I G85B5 9C 177B571D5 9 > F 5CD=5> D 9 > @ 5B9? 4 , 0 $ *" - &$63* 5 : :45 & . *85 C? 391< C 53EB9D I CICD5= 9C 49F9454 9 > D ? D G ? C53D9?>C @ E2<93 @ 5 >C9?> 1> 4 8 51<D8 9 >CEB1>35 - 5 1CCE=5 D 81D D85 @E2<93 @ 5 >C9?> 2 5>5KD *" @B? F 9454 D? 175 ' 8?EC58?<4C 9> @ 5 B9? 4 , 45@ 5 >4C ? > D 859B 89CD?B931< G 175 9>3?=5 D 9 C @ B?@ ?BD9?>1< D ? D85 1 F 5B175 G 175 9>3?=5 D81D 8 ?EC58?<4C B 5359F9>7 D85 2 5 >5KD 51B>54 4EB9>7 D859B G ?B;9>7 I 51BC * 85 @E2<93 @ 5>C9?> 2 5 >5KD @B? F9454 2 I D85 C? 391< C53EB9D I CICD5= D? 1 > 5G B5D9B55 9 > @ 5B9? 4 , *" 9C 45K>54 1C *" / % G85B5 9C D85 B 5@<135=5> D B1D9? D 81D 4 5D5B=9>5C D85 C9J5 ?6 D85 @ E2<93 @ 5>C9?> 2 5 > 5KD B5<1D9F 5 D? D85 @1CD G 175C *85 @ E2<93 @ 5>C9?> 2 5 >5KD D81D 175 ' 8?EC58?<4C 9> @ 5 B9? 4 , B5359F 5 9 C 6 ?B= E <1D54 1C *" 6?B ' *" *" 6?B ' *85 @ 5 B31@9D1 =54931< 3 ?CDC 4 5>?D54 2 I )" 1B5 1CCE=54 D ? 2 5 4 9R5B5> D 13B?CC 175 ' 1>4 D 9=59> F 1B91> D *85 175C@ 539K3 @ B?K<5 ?6 D 85 =54931< 3 ?CDC 9 C 5H?75>?EC<I 79F 5 > 1>4 7B? GC 1<?>7 1 2 1<1>354 7B? G D8 @1D8 - 5 4 5K>5 D85 =54931< 2 5>5KD )" 6?B 175 ' 8?EC58?<4C 9> @ 5 B9? 4 , 1C 6?<<? G C )" $ )" 6?B , )" )" 6?B , ?B 2 ?D8 @ E2<93 @ 5 >C9?> 2 5>5KDC 1>4 =54931< 2 5>5KDC @ 1BD ?6 D 85 3?CDC 9 C 3 ? F5B54 2 I D85 75>5B1< 7? F 5B>=5> D 1>4 D85 B5CD 9C 3? F 5 B54 2 I D 85 B5<5F 1> D C53D9?> ? 6 D85 C ?391< C53EB9D I CICD5= * 1;9>7 1 C 79F 5> D85 3? F 5 B175 B1D9?C ?6 DB1>C65BC 5H@ 5>49DEB5C K > 1>354 2 I D 85 75>5B1< 7? 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GD8 B 1D5 %' @ 5B 31@9D1 45K> 54 1C B51< %' @ 5B D?D1< @ ?@E<1D9?> > 1D9?>1< C1 F9>7 B 1D5 B51< B5DEB> ?> 31@9D 1< 3 1@9D1<<12 ?B B1D9? 31@9D1< C 81B5 ?6 D?D1< 1CC5DC @ 5 >C9?> 2 5>5KDC D? %' B 1D9? =54931 < 2 5>5KDC D? %' B1D9? @B9=1BI 2 1<1>35 D? %' B 1D9? 1>4 >5D 7? F 5B>=5> D 4 52D D ? %' B1D9? * 85 D89> <9>5C 4 5@93D D 85 13DE1< C5B95C 1>4 D85 D893 ; < 9>5C 45@93D D85 =? 4 5<75>5B 1D54 C5B95C & EB =? 45< B 5@<931D5C D85 4I>1=93C ?6 D85 =13B? 53?>?=93 F 1B912<5C G 5<< > @1B D93E<1B D85 <?>7<1CD9>7 ?ED@ED 7B? GD8 C<? G 4? G> D81D CD1BD54 G 9D8 D 85 2EBCD ?6 D85 1CC 5D 2E22<5 9> 9C B5@B? 4 E354 9> D85 =? 4 5< C5B95C C 4 9C3ECC54 9> 5H9CD9>7 CDE495C CE 3 8 1C 85> 5 D 1< 1>4 B1E> 5D 1< D 85 >1D9?>1< C1 F9>7 B1D5 1>4 B 51< B 5DEB> D? 31@9D1< 1<C? 453B51C5 9> D85 =?CD B535> D D G ? 4 53145C 1>4 D85 =? 45<75>5B1D54 4 1D1 3 <?C 5<I DB13 ;C D85 3?BB5C@ ?>49>7 13DE1< D 9=5 C 5B95C *85 75>5B1< @ 1DD5B>C ?6 B 5F 5> E5C 1>4 5H @ 5 >49DEB5C 6?B 2 ?D8 D85 C? 391< C53EB9D I CICD5= 1>4 D85 75>5B1< 7? F 5B>=5> D 1 B5 1<C? 31@DEB 54 2 I D85 @B5C5> D =? 45< > 2 ?D8 13DE1< 4 1D1 C5B95C 1>4 =? 4 5<75>5B1D54 C5B95C @ 5BC9CD5> D 9>3B51C5C 9 > D 85 @ 5 >C9?> 2 5>5KD 1 >4 =54931< 2 5>5KD 45D5B9?B1D9?> 9 > D 85 @B9=1BI 2 1<1>35 1>4 1335<5B1D54 7? F 5 B>=5> D 452D 133E= E <1D9?> 1B5 ?2C5BF 5 4 97EB5 C8? GC ?ED?6C1=@<5 @B? : 53D9?>C 6?B D 85 =13B? 53?>?=93 F 1B912<5 C 6 B?= ?> G 1B4C E >45B D85 21C5<9>5 C35>1B9? *85 !1@1>5C5 53?>?= I 5H@ 5B95>35C J5B? %' 7B? G D8 9> D85 >5HD 453145 1C * ' 7B? 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( ?D85B ' - 1B4- 1B=549>75B $ - 5CD5B= 1>> * O$13B? 53?>?=93 9 =@<931D9?>C ?6 4 5=?7B1@893 4 5F 5<?@=5> DC 9> D85 5 EB? 1B51P EB?@ 5 1> 5> D B1< 1>; &331C9?>1< ' 1@ 5 B ) 5B95C / 0 $9<5C O$? 4 5<<9>7 D85 =@13D ?6 5=?7B1@893 81>75 E@ ?> D85 3?>?= I P " / 0 * B 121>4D $ +8<97 O*85 #1R5B EBF 5 (5F9C9D54P " !& 1990 2010 2030 Canada 17 20 38 China 9 11 24 France 21 26 39 Germany 223148 Italy 22 31 44 Japan 173553 Russia 151829 U.K. 24 25 34 U.S. 19 20 33 More Developed 19 24 36 Less Developed 8 9 15 (Source) United Nations, "World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision." (Note) More developed regions comprise Europe, Northern America, Australia, New Zealand and Japan, and Less developed regions comprise all regions of Africa, Asia (excluding Japan), Latin America and the Caribbean plus Melanesia, Micronesia and Polynesia. Table 1: Dependency Ratios Dependency Ratio (over 65 age/15-64 age pop., %) 43 1985-90 2005-10 1990 2009 Canada 1.62 1.65 0.62 0.69 China 2.63 1.64 0.45 0.50 France 1.80 1.97 0.63 0.71 Germany 1.43 1.36 0.53 0.65 Italy 1.34 1.38 0.57 0.68 Japan 1.66 1.32 0.61 0.73 Russia 2.12 1.44 0.49 0.51 U.K. 1.84 1.83 0.57 0.65 U.S. 1.89 2.07 0.62 0.67 (Source) United Nations, "World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision," World Health Organization, "Global Health Observatory Data Repository (Life Table)." (Note) Total fertility rate is defined as the number of children per woman. Survival Rate of 85-89 age pop. Total Fertility Rate Table 2: Total Fertility Rates and Elderly Survival Rates 44 DE T 0.406 0.972 0.30 Braun et al. (2009) NME (2009) Table 3: Constant Parameters Table 4: Steady State Values of Key Variables ^` 65 21 j j H ^` 100 21 j j mb (1) Exogenous Variables g ȡ 䃓䃚䃖 0.01 0.00 0.071 1.37 0.056 G/Y B/Y W /Y W c W h W k N s N m 0.142 1.171 0.022 0.10 0.15 0.316 0.413 0.378 (2) Endogenous Variables K/Y C/Y K/L (1- W k )r K r B W s W m 2.68 0.57 5.24 0.055 0.023 0.092 0.079 45 (1) Conditional Survival Probability (2) Labor Efficiency (3) Individual Medical Cost Figure 1: Age-Specific Profiles 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 21 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 2040 2010 1982 (Index) Yr Yr Yr Age 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 21 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 (Index) 0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 21 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 (Index) Age Age 46 (1) Growth Rate of TFP Factor (2) Fertility Rate (Age-21 Population Growth) (3) Preference for Leisure (4) Government Purchases-GNP Ratio (5) Current/Capital Transfers-GNP Ratio (6) Consumption Tax Rate (7) Labor Income Tax Rate (8) Capital Income Tax Rate (9) Coverage Ratios of General Government (10) Preference for Bond Holdings (Note) Government purchases of (4) do not include public medical benefits. Figure 2: Exogenous Time Series 0 2 4 6 8 10 82 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 (%) 0 5 10 15 82 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 (%) 10 12 14 16 18 20 82 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 (%) 20 25 30 35 40 82 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 (%) Yr 12 13 14 15 16 8285 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 (%) 10 20 30 40 50 82 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Pension Benefits Medical Benefits (%) -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 82 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 (%) 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 82 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 (Index) 0.00 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.10 82 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 (Index) -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 8285 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 (%) Yr 47 (1) Growth Rate of Real GNP (2) Real GNP per Capita (3) Gross National Saving Rate (4) After-Tax Rate of Return on Capital (5) Capital-Labor Ratio (6) Capital Share of Total Assets (7) Pension Benefits-GNP Ratio (8) Medical Benefits-GNP Ratio (9) Primary Balance-GNP Ratio (10) Net Government Debt-GNP Ratio Figure 3: Model Performance 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 82 85 90 95 00 05 10 4 5 6 7 8 9 82 85 90 95 00 05 10 (%) (%) -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 82 85 90 95 00 05 10 Data Model Yr (%) 3 6 9 12 82 85 90 95 00 05 10 (%) 2 4 6 8 82 85 90 95 00 05 10 (%) 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 82 85 90 95 00 05 10 (Index: Normalized to unity in 2000) -12 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 82 85 90 95 00 05 10 (%) 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 82 85 90 95 00 05 10 (%) 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 82 85 90 95 00 05 10 (Index) 70 80 90 100 82 85 90 95 00 05 10 (%) 48 (1) Growth Rate of Real GNP (2) Growth Rate of Labor (3) Growth Rate of Capital and Gross Saving Rate (4) Real Returns on Capital and on Bonds (5) Saving Rates of Workers and Retirees (6) Average Hours Worked (7) Pension/Medical Benefits-GNP Ratio (8) Real GNP per Capita Figure 4: Baseline Long-Term Projection 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 82 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Growth Rate of Capital (Left Axis) Saving Rate (Right Axis) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 82 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Bond Return Capital Return (%) (%) -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 82 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 (%) Forecast -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 82 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 (%) Workers Retirees -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 82 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 (%) Yr (%) 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 82 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 (Index: Baseline value in 2000 is unity.) 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 82 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 (Index: Baseline value in 2000 is unity.) 3 6 9 12 15 82 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 (%) Pension Medical 49 (1) Growth Rate of Real GNP (2) Growth Rate of Labor (3) Growth Rate of Capital and Gross Saving Rate (4) Real Returns on Capital and on Bonds (5) Saving Rates of Workers and Retirees (6) Average Hours Worked (7) Pension/Medical Benefits-GNP Ratio (8) Real GNP per Capita Figure 5: Impact of Decline in Fertility Rate (Counterfactual Simulation) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 82 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Bond Return [Assumption] No fertility rate decline: the size of the age-21 population is held constant from 1995. Other exogenous series are identical to Figure 4. (%) -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 82 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Baseline Simulation (%) Impacts of Decline in Fertility Rate -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 82 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 (%) Workers Retirees -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 82 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 (%) Capital Return 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 82 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 (%) Growth Rate of Capital (Left Axis) Saving Rate (Right Axis) (%) Yr 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 82 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 (Index: Baseline value in 2000 is unity.) 3 6 9 12 15 82 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 (%) Pension Medical 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 82 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 (Index: Baseline value in 2000 is unity.) 50 (Note) The zero line corresponds to the alternative scenario. (1) Primary Balance-GNP Ratio (2) Net Government Debt (Note) The zero line corresponds to the alternative scenario. Figure 6: Impact of Decline in Fertility Rate on Real GNP per Capita Figure 7: Impact of Decline in Fertility Rate on Fiscal Balance -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 82 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Real GNP per worker Fraction of worker Real GNP per capita (Discrepancy between the two scenarios, %) Yr -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 8285 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 (Discrepancy from the baseline, % points) -10 0 10 20 30 40 8285 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 (Discrepancy from the baseline, %) Yr 51 (1) Growth Rate of Real GNP (2) Growth Rate of Labor (3) Growth Rate of Capital and Gross Saving Rate (4) Real Returns on Capital and on Bonds (5) Saving Rates of Workers and Retirees (6) Average Hours Worked (7) Pension/Medical Benefits-GNP Ratio (8) Real GNP per Capita Figure 8: Impact of Increase in Longevity (Counterfactual Simulation) 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 82 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 (%) (%) Growth Rate of Capital (Left Axis) Saving Rate (Right Axis) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 82 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Capital Return [Assumption] No increase in longevity: households' survival probability is held constant from 1982 onward. Other exogenous series are identical to Figure 4. (%) -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 82 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Baseline Simulation (%) Impacts of Increase in Longevity -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 82 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 (%) Workers Retirees -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 82 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 (%) Bond Return Yr 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 82 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 (Index: Baseline value in 2000 is unity.) 3 6 9 12 15 82 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 (%) Pension Medical 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 82 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 (Index: Baseline value in 2000 is unity.) 52 (Note) The zero line corresponds to the alternative scenario. (1) Primary Balance-GNP Ratio (2) Net Government Debt (Note) The zero line corresponds to the alternative scenario. Figure 9: Impact of Increase in Longevity on Real GNP per Capita Figure 10: Impact of Increase in Longevity on Fiscal Balance -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 82 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Real GNP per worker Fraction of worker Real GNP per capita (Discrepancy between the two scenarios, %) Yr -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 8285 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 (Discrepancy from the baseline, % points) -10 0 10 20 30 40 8285 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 (Discrepancy from the baseline, %) Yr 53 (1) Growth Rate of Real GNP (2) Growth Rate of Labor (3) Growth Rate of Capital and Gross Saving Rate (4) Real Returns on Capital and on Bonds (5) Saving Rates of Workers and Retirees (6) Average Hours Worked (7) Pension/Medical Benefits-GNP Ratio (8) Real GNP per Capita Figure 11: Impact of Public Medical Benefit (Counterfactual Simulation) 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 82 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 (%) (%) Growth Rate of Capital (Left Axis) Saving Rate (Right Axis) -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 82 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Capital Return [Assumption] Part of public medical benefit is financed by lump-sum tax on all living households, instead of payroll income tax on working households. Other exogenous series are the same as in Figure 4. (%) -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 82 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Baseline Simulation (%) Impacts of Public Health Insurance System -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 82 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 (%) Workers Retirees -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 82 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 (%) Bond Return Yr 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 82 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 (Index: Baseline value in 2000 is unity.) 3 6 9 12 15 82 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 (%) Pension Medical 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 82 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 (Index: Baseline value in 2000 is unity.) 54 (Note) The zero line corresponds to the alternative scenario. (1) Primary Balance-GNP Ratio (2) Net Government Debt (Note) The zero line corresponds to the alternative scenario. Figure 12: Impact of Public Medical Benefit on GNP per Capita Figure 13: Impact of Public Medical Benefit on Fiscal Balance -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 82 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Real GNP per worker Fraction of worker Real GNP per capita (Discrepancy between the two scenarios, %) Yr -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 8285 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 (Discrepancy from the baseline, % points) -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 8285 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 (Discrepancy from the baseline, %) Yr 55 (1) Return on Capital (2) Growth Rate of Real GNP (3) Saving Rate (4) Investment Rate (5) Current Account-GNP Ratio (6) Trade Balance-GNP Ratio (7) Income Account-GNP Ratio (8) Real GNP per Capita Figure 14: Impact of Decline in Fertility Rate on Current Account -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 1 102030 40 (Discrepancy from the baseline, % points) -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 1 102030 40 (Discrepancy from the baseline, % points) -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 1 10203040 (Discrepancy from the baseline, % points) [Assumption] The growth rate of age-21 population declines permanently by 1.0% point. Domestic return on capital is equalized to foreign return on capital. -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 1 1020 3040 Closed Small Open (Discrepancy from the baseline, % points) Period -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1 1020 3040 (Discrepancy from the baseline, % points) -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 1 10 203040 (Discrepancy from the baseline, % points) -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 1 102030 40 (Discrepancy from the baseline, % points) -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 1 102030 40 (Discrepancy from the baseline, %) 56 (1) Return on Capital (2) Growth Rate of Real GNP (3) Saving Rate (4) Investment Rate (5) Current Account-GNP Ratio (6) Trade Balance-GNP Ratio (7) Income Account-GNP Ratio (8) Real GNP per Capita Figure 15: Impact of Increase in Longevity on Current Account -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 1 102030 40 (Discrepancy from the baseline, % points) -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 1 102030 40 (Discrepancy from the baseline, % points) -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 1 1020 3040 (Discrepancy from the baseline, % points) [Assumption] The conditional survival probabilities of age 65 over households rise permanently by 1.0% point. Domestic return on capital is equalized to foreign return on capital. -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 1 1020 3040 Closed Small Open (Discrepancy from the baseline, % points) Period -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1 1020 3040 (Discrepancy from the baseline, % points) -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 1 10 203040 (Discrepancy from the baseline, % points) -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 1 102030 40 (Discrepancy from the baseline, % points) -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 1 102030 40 (Discrepancy from the baseline, %) 57 (1) Current Account (to GDP Ratio) (2) Population Growth Rate (3) Average Life Span (Source) IMF "World Economic Outlook," United Nations "World Population Prospects (Medium Forecast)," (Source) Japanese Cabinet Office "National Accounts," U.S. Department of Commerce "National Income and (Source) Product Accounts." (Note) 'Average of Advanced Countries' corresponds to the category 'More Developed Regions' by United (Note) Nations "World Population Prospects (Medium Forecast)." Figure 16: Current Account and Demographics in Japan and the U.S. -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Japan U.S. (%) Yr Forecast by IMF -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Japan U.S. Average of Advanced Countries (%) Yr Forecast by UN 65 70 75 80 85 90 1955-1960 1965-1970 1975-1980 1985-1990 1995-2000 2005-2010 2015-2020 2025-2030 2035-2040 2045-2050 (Age) Yr Forecast by UN 58 < Case I > Higher TFP Growth Rate (2%) (I-1) Growth Rate of GNP (I-2) Growth Rate of Labor (I-3) Growth Rate of Capital and Gross Saving Rate (I-4) Real GNP per Capita < Case II > Less Elastic Labor Supply (Frisch Elasticity = 0.5) (II-1) Real GNP per Capita (II-2) Growth Rate of Labor < Case III > Higher Preference for Bond (Twofold ever after 2011) (III-1) Real GNP Per Capita (III-2) Real Returns on Capital and on Bonds Figure 17: Sensitivity Analysis 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 (%) (%) Growth Rate of Capital (Left Axis) Saving Rate (Right Axis) -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 (%) 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 (Index: Baseline value in 2000 is unity.) -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Baseline (TFP1%) Simulation (TFP2%) (%) Yr 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 82 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Aging Non-Aging (Index: Baseline value in 2000 is unity.) -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 82 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 (%) 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 82 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Aging Non-Aging (Index: Baseline value in 2000 is unity.) -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 82 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Capital Return (%) Bond Return t K 59 (1) Age-21 Population Growth (Exogenous) (2) Old-age Dependency Ratio (3) Growth Rate of Real GNP (4) Pension/Medical Benefits-GNP Ratio (5) Primary Balance-GNP Ratio (6) Net Government Debt-GNP Ratio (Note) The above primary balance does not include an additional lump-sum tax levied so as to achive the fiscal balance after the regime switch is implemented. Figure 18: Super-Long-Term Baseline Transition Path (GNP Growth and Fiscal Variables) -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090 2110 2130 2150 2170 2190 2210 (%) Forecast Assumption 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090 2110 2130 2150 2170 2190 2210 (%) Forecast -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090 2110 2130 2150 2170 2190 2210 (%) Forecast 0 5 10 15 20 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090 2110 2130 2150 2170 2190 2210 (%) Forecast -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090 2110 2130 2150 2170 2190 2210 (%) Forecast 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090 2110 2130 2150 2170 2190 2210 (%) Forecast (Endogenous) Regime Switch (Exogenous) 60 : 3 B F 7 D ; @3@5 ; 3 > *:A5 = E 3 @6 !3B3@P E GE ; @ 7 E E K5 > 7 E +,*, +:;E B 3B 7D ;@ H 7 EF;93F7E 7?B;D;53>>K F :7 D7>3F;H 7 ;?B ADF3@57 A8 M@3@5;3> E:A 5 =E 3@6 8D;5F;A@E ;@ !3B3@PE 4 GE;@7EE 5K5>7E GE;@9 3 H 3D;3@ F A8 ) ?A 67> F :3F ; @5A DB AD3F7E MD?EP M@3@5;@9 5 A@EFD3;@ F 7 JB>;5;F>K + :;E ?A 6 7> 7J:;4;FE 9A A 6 B 7 D8AD?3 @57 ; @ D 7BDA 6G5;@9 ! 3B3@PE 4GE;@7EE 5K5>7 BDAB 7DF;7E +:7 CG3@ F;F3F;H 7 D7EG>FE E:A I F:3F E:ADF DG@ NG5FG3F;A@E ; @ AGFBGF ;@ H 7 EF?7@ F 3@6 >34 AD 3D7 E;9@;M53@ F >K ;@NG7@576 4K 3 E:A 5= A@ MD?EP M@3@5;@9 5A@EFD3;@ F EB 75;3>>K @ 793F;H 7 E :A 5 = E A@ M D?EP M@3@5;@ 9 5 A@EFD3;@ F :3 H 7 E;9@;M53@ F 7T75FE A@ F :7 D757EE;A@E ; @ 38F7D F :7 5A>>3BE7 A8 3@ P3 EE7F BD;57 4G44>7 ; @ I;F: 3@ 38F7D?3F: A 8 F :7 E;3@ M@3@5;3> 5 D;E;E 3@6 6 GD;@9 I;F: 6A?7EF;5 436>A3@ BDA4>7?E A@E;67D34>7 B3DFE A8 ?76;G? 3@6 >A@9 DG@ H 3D ;3F;A@E ; @ F:AE7 H 3D;34>7E 3 D7 EF;>> 355AG@ F76 8 AD 4 K F:7 >7;EGD7 B D787D7@57 E:A 5 = I: ;5 : ; E ; @ F 7@676 FA 53BFGD7 > 34 AD NG5FG3F;A@E ;@6G576 4 K AF:7D 8 D;5F;A@E 3@6 D ;9;6;F K F:3@ MD?EP M@3@ 5;3> 5 A@6;F;A@E +:;E D7EG>F EG997EFE F:3F 3E ; E B A;@ F 76 AGF 4 K 3 87I B D7H; AGE E FG6;7E F:7D7 7J;EF AF:7D ; ?B ADF3@ F EAGD57E A8 6;EFADF;A@ ;@ F:7 ! 3B3@7E7 > 34 AD ?3 D= 7F !# >3EE;M53F;A@ "7KI AD6E GE;@7EE K5>7E ;@3@5;3> D ;5F;A@ !3B3@ & , *' -," '& +:7 ;@6GEFD;3>;L76 I AD>6 I 3E 8 3576 I;F: 3 E7D;AGE 75A@A?;5 6 A I @ F GD@ ; @ F I 3E D7B ADF76 F:3F F:7 EG4BD;?7 ?ADF9397 >A3@ BDA4>7? 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AD= 7 6P 3D7 ?A@ F:>K E73EA@3>>K 36<GEF76 E7D;7E 3@6 5 A@ H 7 DF7 6 F A C G3DF7D>K ;@ 3 G EG3> ?3@@7D I:;>7 P K 73DEA>6 3@6 34 A H 7 ' ABG>3F;A@P ;E 3@ 3@@ G 3> E 7D;7E 3@6 = 7BF MJ76 6GD;@9 F:7 8 AGD C G3DF7DE A8 F :7 K 7 3D F: G E @ AF E73EA@3>>K 36<GEF76 @ 366;F;A@ F A 7JFD35F 5K5>;53> 5 A?B A@7@ FE 8DA? D3 I 6 3F3 3>> F :7 F;?7 E7D;7E GE76 ;@ F:7 ? A 6 7> E;? G >3F;A@ 3D7 M >F7D76 'M>F7D76 8A>>A I;@9 3 5 A@ H 7 @ F ;A@ B DAB AE76 M DEF 4 K A 6 D;5 = 3@6 ' D7E5AFF *A?7 A8 3@@ G 3> 63F3 GE76 8AD 5 3>;4D3F;A@ ;@ *75F;A@ 5A?7 8DA? 63F3 BDA H ;67 64K 3 K 3E:; 3 @6 'D7E5AFF 6 7BD75;3F;A@ D 3F7 A8 5 3B;F3> ; @5A?7 E:3D7 A 8 5 3B;F3> EFA 5 = 53B;F3> ; @5A?7 F3J 3@6 5 3B;F3> EFA 5 = ; @ F :7 @A@M@3@5;3> 5ADB AD3F7 E75FA D A>>A I ;@9 F :7;D / # I AD=E:77FE F :7E7 63F3 3D7 G B 6 3F76 4 K ;@BGFF;@9 D 3 I 63F3 8DA? FA +:7 F;?7 E7D;7E A8 674F :7>6 4 K F:7 @ A@M@3@5;3> 5 ADB AD3F;A@E ; E A 4F3;@76 8 DA? F :7 >A I A8 G@6E 55AG@ FE ?367 4 K F:7 3@= A8 ! 3B3@ 7D7 6 74F 5 A@E;EFE A8 ?3;@>K O #A3@EP 3@6 O*75GD;F;7E AF:7D F :3@ E:3D7EP I :;5 : 3D7 7 CG;H 3>7@ F F A O + AF3> A8 M @3@5;3> #;34;>;F;7 EP @7FA8O*:3D7E 3@6 A F:7D 7CG;F;7EP 3@6 O;T7D7@57 4 7 F I 7 7@ M@3@5;3> 3 EE7FE 3@6 >;34;>;F; 7EP +:7E7 6 3F3 3D7 753GE7 F :7 B A BG> 3F; A @ ; E G E76 3 E < GEF 3 @AD? 3> ; L 76 8 3 5FAD FA 5A@ H 7DF 399D7 93F7E;@FAB7D53B;F3H3D; 34> 7 E 8 A D F :7 F; ? 7 4 7 ; @ 9 3 4EFD 35F 8 D A ? 3 CG3D F7D > K 5 :3@97 ; @ F :7 B A BG> 3F ;A @ A H 7 D 4 G E ;@ 7 E E 5 K 5 >7 E E 3 4 7 FF7D 3 > F 7D@3F; H 7 I 7 5 3@ ; @ F7DB AD3F7 3 @@ G3> 6 3F3 > ; @ 73D> K F A 5 A@EFDG5F ;FE C G 3 DF7 D >K 6 3 F3 5A@E;EF7@ F I;F: F:7 * % *F3F;EF;5E -+" & ++ 0$ *'( *,"+ "& (& 3E76 A@ F :7 CG3DF7D>K 6 3F3 5 A@EFDG5F76 34 A H 7 BD7E7@ F EA?7 EF K>;L76 835F E A@ F :7 !3B3@7E7 75A@A?;5 N G5FG3F;A@E A H 7 D F :7 B 7 D;A 6 F A + 3 4>7 5A>G?@ O 3F3P D7B ADFE F :7 EF3@63D6 67H;3F;A@ 3@6 5 ADD7>3F;A@ I;F: AGFBGF 8AD = 7K ' M>F7D76 H 3D;34> 7E B 7 D 5 3B;F3 @ 5A?B3D;EA@ I;F: F:7 EF3@63D6 67H;3F;A@E ;F FGD@E AGF F:3F 5A@EG?BF;A@ 3@6 >34 A D ; @BGF 3D7 >7EE H A>3F;>7 F:3@ AGFBGF I:;>7 ;@ H 7 EF?7@ F ;E ? 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F:7 FD7@6 *A?7 A8 F:7 34 A H 7 B DAB 7 DF;7E 3D7 5>73D>K H;E;4>7 ;@ F:7 M9GD7 +: 7D7 3D7 E7H 7 D3> 5AGB>7E A8 D7>3F;H 7>K >3D97 ; @5D73E7 3@6 6 75D73E7 ;@ ;@ H 7 EF?7@ F I:;5 : 3D 7 ?AD7 F:3@ 67H;3F;A@E ;@ 34EA>GF7 H 3>G7E #3D97 675D73E7E ; @ ; @ H 7EF?7@ F 3D7 E77@ ;@ 38F7D F :7 '>3L3 55AD6 ;@ 38F7D F:7 5A>>3BE7 A8 F :7 O3EE7F BD;57 4G44>7P ;@ 38F7D F :7 E;3@ M@3@5;3> 5 D;E;E ;@ 38F7D F:7 5A>>3BE7 A8 F :7 O + 4G44>7P 3E I 7 >> 3E ;@ 38F7D F:7 D757@ F M@3@5;3> 5 D;E;E +:7 >3EF 6DAB 7J5776E ;@ 34EA>GF7 H 3> G7E 3@6 ;E F:7 ?AEF E 7H 7D7 ; @ F:7 E3?B>7 B 7 D;A 6 '$ 3E;53>>K F:7 ?A 67> 8 A>>A IE F:7 EB 75;M53F;A@E 5 A@EFDG5F76 4 K !( I;F: EA?7 36<GEF?7@ F E FA 7JB>AD7 CG3@ F;F3F;H 7 >K F:7 !3B3@7E7 D73> 4GE;@7EE 5K5>7E A H 7D F:7 B 7D; A 6 FA *B 75;M53>>K 3E ?7@ F ;A@76 4 7>A I E;?B>;8K MD?EP M @3@5;@9 5 A@EFD3;@ F 4 K 3 BBDA J ;?3F;@9 F:7 H 3>G7 A8 M D?E 3@6 ; @EF736 ;@ FDA 6 G57 F I A ?AD7 E:A 5 = E 3 >7;EGD7 B D787D7 @57 E:A 5 = 3@6 3 9A H 7 D@?7@ F EB 7@6;@9 E:A 5 = 4 7 E;67E 3 B DA 6G5F;H;F K E:A 5 = 3@6 3 M @3@5;3> E: A 5 = 8 AD? G >3F76 ;@ !( +:7 ?A 67> 6 7E5D;4 7E 3 5>AE76 75A@A? K I:;5 : 5A@E;EFE A8 3 D 7BD7E7@ F 3F;H 7 M D ? 3 D 7B D7E7@ F 3F;H 7 : AGE7:A>6 3@6 9A H 7 D@?7@ F & @7 ;?B ADF3@ F 6 ;T7D7@57 8DA? 3 E F 3@63D6 ) ?A 67> ; E F:3F F :7 MD? ; E E G4 <75F FA F:7 >;?;F76 7 @8AD57?7@ F A@ 674F 5A@ F D35F E3@6 F:7 D;9;6;F K A8 7CG;F K B 3 K AGFE B3 K?7@ FE FA F:7 E:3D7:A>67DE * ;@57 A@7 A 8 F : 7A4<75F;H7E;@ F:;E B 3B 7D ;E FA 5A?B3D7 F:7 ;?B35F A8 3 E :A 5 = A@ MD?EP M @3@5;3> 5 A@6;F;A@E I ;F: F:AE7 A8 AF:7D E :A 5 = E I:;5 : 3D7 E GBB AE76 F A ; @6G57 > 34 AD NG5FG3F;A@E B D;?3D;>K 5 A@E;67D 3 E:A 5 = F:3F 6 ;D75F>K 3T75FE : AGE7:A>6EP >7;EGD7 B D787D7@57 ; @ 366;F;A@ FA F:7 BD A 6G5F;H;F K E:A 5 = '-+!'$ +:7D7 ;E 3 D 7BD7E7@ F 3F;H 7 : AGE7:A>6 I:AE7 7JB 7 5F76 >;87F;?7 G F;>;F K 67B 7 @6E A@ 5A@EG?B F;A@ & 3@6 >34AD . 5 & . I:7D7 ;E F:7 E G4 <75F;H 7 6 ;E5AG@ F D 3F7 +:7 B 7 D;A 6 GF;>;F K 8G@5F;A@ A8 F:7 :AGE7: A>6 F 3= 7 3 5 A@ H 7 @ F ;A@3> 366;F;H 7 > A93D;F:?;5 8AD? A8 F:7 3D9G?7@ FE 5A??A@>K GE76 8 AD? ; @ F :7 ?35DA 75A@A?;5 >;F7D3FGD7 5 & . & . A I 7H 7D ; @ AD67D FA 7H 3>G3F7 B3DF A8 >34 A D N G5FG3F;A@E I :;5 : 3D7 @ AF 7JB>3;@76 4 K F:7 B DA 6G5F;H;F K 3@6 M @3@5;3> E:A 5 = E 3>EA ; @ F DA 6G57 3 EFA 5 :3EF;5 H 3D;34>7 I:;5 : 6;D75F>K 3T75FE F :7 >7;EGD7 B D787D7@57 ; @ F:7 :AGE7:A>6PE G F;>;F K +:;E EFA 5 : 3EF;5 BD787D7@57 ;E 3@ A8F7@ G E76 ?A 6 7 >873FGD7;@F:7 4GE;@7EE 5K5>7 >;F7D3FGD7 8AD 7J3?B>7 3JF7D 3@6 ";@9 EA F:3F F : 7 ? A 6 7> 97@7D3F7E 3 E?3>> 5 ADD7>3F;A@ 4 7 F I 77@ D73> I 397 3@6 : AGDE I AD= 76 +:7 A4 <75F;H 7 A8 36 ABF;@9 F:;E EB 75;M53F;A@ ;E FA 53BFGD7 > 34 AD NG5FG3F;A@E ; @6G576 4 K 835FADE AF:7D F:3 @ M @3@5;3> E :A 5 = E 3E 6 7M@76 ; @ F:7 @7JF EG4E75F;A@ +:;E >7;EGD7 B D787D7@57 E:A 5 = ;E 3EEG? 76 FA 8A>>A I 3@ ) B DA 57EE I;F: 3 6 ;EFGD43@57 6D3 I @ 8 DA? F :7 @AD?3> 6;EFD;4GF;A@ 3@6 I:7D7 ;E F:7 E F736K EF3F7 >7H 7 > +:7 :AGE7:A>6 EGBB>;7E . G@;F A8 >34 AD 8 AD MD?E 3@6 7 3D@E ;@5A?7 3F F:7 I 397 D3F7 7 ; @ F :7 5A?B 7F;F;H 7 ?3D= 7 F *:7 ; E F :7 E:3D7:A>67D A8 M D?E 3@6 D757;H 7E F:7 6;H;67@6 ' B 7D G@;F A8 7CG;F K A8 MD?E 3 ;@735:B7D;A6 4 * :7 3>EA :A>6E A@7B 7D;A 6 4 A@6E ;EEG76 4 K MD?E 3E E3 H;@9E +:7@ : 7D 4G697F 5A@EFD3;@ F ; E I D;FF7@ 3E & 1 3 % 2 7 . ' 1 3 % # I:7D7 2 ;E F:7 D73> ; @ F 7D7EF D3F7 1 ;E F:7 B D;57 A8 7CG;F K % ;E 4 A @6 :A>6;@9E 3 ;E 7CG;F K E:3D7E 3@6 # ;E >G?BEG? F3J7E ; ?B AE76 4 K F :7 9A H 7 D@?7@ F +:7@ 9;H 7@ F:7 B D;57E F:7 :AGE7:A>6 ? 3J;?;L7E :7D 7JB 75F76 > ;87F;?7 GF;>;F K EG4 < 75F FA : 7D 4G69 7F 5A@EFD3;@F 4K 5 : A AE;@9 5A@EG?BF;A@ & > 34 AD . 4 A@6 3@6 E:3D7 : A>6;@9E % 3 3 ;E @AD?3>;L76 FA G@;F K ; @ 3@ 7 CG;>;4D;G? " * % +:7D7 ;E 3 D 7BD7E7@ F 3F;H 7 M D? I:;5 : BDA 6 G57E 5A@EG?BF;A@ 9A A 6E I;F: 3 A44 AG9>3E + 7 5 :@A>A9K 9 ( - . I:7D7 9 ;E AGFBGF - ;E 53B;F3> E FA 5 = A I@76 4 K F:7 MD? . ;E >34 AD ; @BGF ; @ B 7D;A 6 4 3@6 ;E F:7 ;@5A?7 E:3D7 A8 5 3B;F3> : ;E 3 EFA 5 : 3EF;5 H 3D;34>7 6 7F7D?;@;@9 3 > 7H 7> A8 BDA 6 G5F;H;F K I:;5 : 8A>>A IE 3@ ) B DA 57EE : : 3@6 +:7 MD? : 3E 3 5A@ H 7@ F;A@3> ;@ H 7 EF?7@ F F75 : @A>A9K I:;5 : 5 A@ H 7 DFE 5 A@EG?BF;A@ 9A A 6 E ; @ FA 53B;F3> 9AA6E + - - I:7D7 + ;E ;@ H 7 EF?7@ F 3@6 ;E F:7 6 7BD75;3F;A@ D 3F7 A8 5 3B;F3> EFA 5 = +:7 MD? 5 3@ ?3= 7 G E7 A8 674F 3@6 7CG;F K F A M @3@57 ; FE 7JB 7 @6;FGD7 4GF 6 74F ; E 3EEG?76 FA 4 7 BD787D34>7 FA 7CG;F K 4 753GE7 A8 ; FE F3J 36H 3@ F397 ,@>;= 7 F :7 , * F3J EKEF7? 7J57BF 8AD E?3>> 7J57BF;A@E 5ADB AD3F7 F 3J7E 3D7 4 3E;53>>K @ AF 67 6G5F;4>7 8DA? ;@ F7D7EF ;@5A?7 3@6 6 ;H;67@6 ; @5A?7 ;@ F:7 !3B3@7E7 F3J E KEF7? A I 7 H 7 D 8DA? 3 H;7I A8 MD?E 674FADE F:7D7 ;E 3 F 3J 36H 3@ F 397 ;@ F:7 E7@E7 F :3F 4 A@6 ; EEG3@57 3 @6 43@= >A3@E 4 7 5A?7 ;@5>GE;A@ ;@ 5 : 3D97E 393;@EF D 7H 7@ G7 +:7D78AD7 M D?E : 3 H 7 3@ ; @57 @F;H7FAF3=73 BD;AD;F K A@ 4 A@6 ;EEG3@57 3@6 4 3@= > A3@E 8AD M @3@5;@9 4 GE;@7EE ; @ H 7EF?7@ F + A 5 3BFGD7 F:;E 873FGD7 F 3= 7 355AG@ F A8 F:7 F 3J 36H 3 @ F 397 A@ MD?EP 674F 3F F:7 7 JB 7@E7 A8 BD75;E7@7EE + : 7 E 3? 7 F 3J D3F7 97@7D3> > K ; @ ; @ 5A? 7 F3J ; @ D7E; 67@ F EP F3J ; E>7H;76A@;@F7D7EF ; @ 5A? 7 3@6 6 ; H ;67@6 ; @5A? 7 F ;E @AF E FD3;9: F8ADI 3 D6 FA 7EF;? 3 F7 F:7 7 T 7 5F;H 7 F 3J D3F7 A@ 5ADB AD3F7 ; @ F7D7EF B3 K? 7@ FE E A 53>5G>3F76 ; F 8 D A? F:7 7 T75F; H 7 F 3J D3F7 A@ 53B; F3> ; @5A? 7 A @ 3 @ 3 @@ G3> 4 3E; E AD F :7 D73> ;@ F7D7EF D3F7 2 " 2 ;E F:7 7T75F;H 7 9 DAEE ;@ F7D7EF D3F7 A@ F:7 MD?PE 6 74F A I 7 H 7 D 8A>>A I ;@9 3 = 7 K EB 7 5;M53F;A@ A8 !( ;@ FDA 6 G57 F I A EAGD57E A8 M@3@5;3> ; ?B 7D875F;A@ ;DEF I 7 3EEG?7 F:3F F:7 4 ADDA I ;@9 5 3B35;F K A8 F :7 MD? ; E >;?;F76 FA 3 57DF3;@ 679D77 *;@57 A@>K F :7 MD? : 3E F:7 ;@ H 7 EF?7@ F F75 : @A>A9K 3@6 5 3 @BDA6G57 5A@EG?BF;A@ 9A A 6 E G E;@9 ;FE A I@76 5 3B;F3> ;@ F:7 ?A 67> I 7 5A@E;67D F:3F F : 7 M D? D7F3;@E 3 57DF3;@ 4 3D93;@;@9 B A I 7 D A H 7 D F:7 @79AF;3F;A@ A8 674F 5A@ F D35FE E 3 D 7EG >F A@>K 3 8 D35F;A@ A8 F:7 M D?PE H 3>G7 ; E 9G3D3@ F 776 F A F :7 >7@67D ; @ F:7 >;CG;63F;A@ A 8 F :7 MD? @ AF:7D I AD6E F:7 >7@67D 5 3@ E7>> F:7 MD?PE 7CG;F K 4GF 5 3@ D75A H 7 D A@>K 3 8D35F;A@ A8 F:7 M D?PE ?3D= 7 F H 3>G7 6 7@AF76 4 K +:7 8D35F;A@ ;E 3EEG?76 F A 4 7 3 EFA 5 :3EF;5 H 3D;34>7 8A>>A I;@9 3@ ) B DA 57EE 3@6 I:7D7 ;E F:7 EF736K EF3F7 > 7H 7> !( D787DE FA F:;E EFA 5 : 3EF;5 H 3D;34>7 3E O M@3@5;3> E:A 5 =P E ";K AF3=; 3@6 $A AD7 3@6 !( ?7@ F;A@ 3BBDA J;?3F7 F :7 H 3>G7 A 8 F:7 MD? I;F: ;FE @7F I ADF: +:7@ F :7 MD?PE 4 ADDA I;@9 5A@EFD3;@ F 4 7 5A?7E 3E 8 A>>A IE - % " 9 +:7 E75A@6 = 7 K 3EEG?BF;A@ ;E F:7 7 J;EF7@57 A8 3 C G36D3F;5 36<GEF?7@ F 5AEF A 8 7CG;F K B3 K AGF 3>EA 36ABF F :7 E3?7 F K B 7 A8 36<GEF?7@ F 5AEFE 8 AD F:7 MD?PE 7 CG;F K B 3 K AGF ' ' ' ' I:7D7 ' ;E 6;H;67@6 FA F:7 E:3D7:A>67DE ' ;E F:7 H 3>G7 ;@ F:7 EF736K EF3F7 3@6 ;E 3 5A 7S5;7@ F I:;5 : 5ADD7EB A@6E F A F:7 679D77 A8 ;FE D ;9;6;F K . 7 53@ 5 A@E;67D F:3F F:;E 5 AEF ;@5>G67E @ AF A@>K B 7 5G@;3DK 5 AEFE ; @ H A>H 7 6 ; @ D7BGD5 : 3E7 3@6 ;EEG3@57 A8 7 CG;F K 4GF 3>EA !( 67D ;H 7 F : 7 ? ; 5 D A 8 AG@676 @ 3FGD 7 A 8 F :7 M@3@5; 3 > E :A 5 = 8 D A? 3@ ;@ F D 3 B 7 D ; A 6 4 3D93; @ ; @ 9 B DA4> 7? 4 7 F I 77@ 3 M D? 3@6 > 7@67DE A@ F:7 D 7@79AF; 3 F; A@ A8 674F 5A@ F D35FE ; @ > ; C G; 63 F; @9 F : 7 M D ? E ; FE EG4 93? 7 B 7 D87 5 F 7 C G ;>;4 D ;G ? ;F ;E E: A I @ F : 3 F F : 7 8D3 5 F;A @ ; E 3EEA 5; 3F76 I ; F: F:7 4 3D93; @; @9 B A I 7 D A 8 F :7 MD? @ !( F:;E 5A@EFD3; @ F ;E 7JBD7EE76 ; @ F 7D? E A8 F:7 7 J35F 8AD? A8 MD? E P H 3> G7 I :; 5 : ; E 3 8 G@5F; A @ A 8 E F 3 F7 H 3 D ;34> 7 E ;@5>G6; @9 ; F E 5 3B; F 3> EFA 5 = 3@6 A GFEF3@6; @9 674F @ 3 6H 3@ F397 ; @ GE; @ 9 F :7 3BBD A J ; ? 3F 7 8 A D ? ? 3 = 7 E ?G5 : 7 3E; 7 D F :7 7EF ; ? 3 F ; A@ BD A 576GD 7 A 8 E :A 5 = BD A 5 7EE7E !( 3> E A ? 7@ F; A@ F:3F F:7 6 ; T 7D7@57 4 7 F I 77@ F:7E7 E B 7 5;M53F; A @E :3D6>K 3T75FE F :7 EA> G F; A@ A8 F:7 ? A 6 7> 4 K 5A? B3D ; @9 F:7 5 A? BGF3F ; A @3> EA>GF;A@E E > A @9 3E F:7 7 @8AD57? 7 @ F 5A@EF D 3; @ F ; E 3> ? A EF 3> I 3 KE 4; @6; @9 F :7 H 3 > G 7 A 8 F :7 MD ? 6 7B 7@6; @9 A@ 3@6 I A G> 6 F 3= 7 3 8 A D ? 5> AE7 F A 3 > ; @ 73D 8 G@5F ; A@ A8 3@6 4 753GE7 F:7 5 A? BGF3F; A @3> EA >G F;A@ D7F3 ;@ E 3 : ; 9 : >;@ 7 3 D ;F K F:7 BD787D7@57E A8 ?3@397DE 3@6 AD E:3D7:A>67DE 8AD E ?A AF:;@9 6;H;67@6 +:;E 3T75FE F :7 MD?PE 5 :A;57 4 7 F I 7 7@ 7CG;F K B3 K AGFE 3@6 4 A@6 ; EEG3@57 F: GE 67F7D?;@;@9 F :7 ;?B35F A8 M@3@5;3> 8 D;5F;A@E ;@ F:7 ?A 67> @ F:7 7 5A@A? K I;F: F :7 MD? 36<GEFE F:7 EAGD57E A8 8G@6E E >A I>K 4 753GE7 F:7 E G4EF;FGF;A@ 4 7 F I 7 7@ 7CG;F K 3@6 674F ;E 5AEF>K +:;E 5D73F7E 3 B DAB393F;A@ ?75 :3@;E? A8 F:7 BDA 6 G5F;H;F K E:A 5 = 3@6 F:7 M@3@5;3> E:A 5 = F :DAG9: F:7 MD?PE ; @ H 7EF?7@ F 6 75;E;A@ E E:A I @ 4 K ! ( 8DA? F:7 M DEF AD67D 5A@6;F;A@E I ;F: F:7 M D?PE M@3@5;@9 5A@EFD3;@ F ;E @AF 4 ;@6;@9 3@6 F:7 M@3@5;3> E :A 5 = 6A 7E @AF 3T75F F:7 MD?PE 6 75;E;A@E A@ F:7 @7JFB 7D;A 6 5 3B;F3> - 3@6 > 34 AD . 3F 3>> @ F:;E 5 3E7 F:7 D73> 835FAD A8 F:7 ?A 67> ;E <GEF 6D;H 7@ 4 K F:7 E:A 5 =E AF:7D F :3@ F:7 M@3@5;3> E:A 5 = I:;>7 F:7 M @3@5; 3> H 3D;34>7E F:7 @7JFB 7D;A 6 4 A@6 % 3@6 7CG;F K B 3 K AGF ' 3D7 ;@67F7D?;@3F7 4 753GE7 F :7 MD? ; E ;@6;T7D7@ F FA 5 : A;57 4 7 F I 7 7@ 4 A@6 3@6 7 CG;F K +:7D7 6;E3BB 73DE 3 B DAB393F ;A@ ?75 :3@;E? F:DAG9: M@3@5;3> 5 A@6;F;A@E @ F:;E E7@E7 F:7 4 7 :3 H;AD A8 F :7 ?A 67> ; E 5>A E7 FA F:3F A8 3 EF3@63D6 ) ? A 6 7> @ F:7E7 E7FF;@9E F :7 MD?PE B DA4>7? ;E 67E5D;4 7 6 3E 8 A>>A IE ;H 7@ F:7 I 397 D3F7 7 3@6 F :7 7T75F;H 7 9DAEE ; @ F 7D7EF D 3F7 A@ F:7 MD?PE 6 74F " F :7 MD? 5 :A AE7E F :7 7CG;F K B3 K AGF ' > 34 AD . 3@6 4 7 9;@@;@9A8F:7@7JFB 7 D;A 6 >7H 7>E A8 53B;F3> - 3@6 674F % FA ?3J;?;L7 ;FE B D7E7@ F H 3>G7 A 8 F:7 8GFGD7 6 ;H;67@6 EFD73?E / ' EG4 < 75F F A F :7 >3 I A8 ?AF;A@ A8 5 3B;F3> F:7 M@3@5;@9 5A@EFD3;@ F 3@6 F:7 4G 697F 5A@EFD3;@ F ' + 9 7 . % " % I:7D7 F:7 EFA 5 :3EF;5 6;E5AG@ F 835FAD / ; E 9;H 7@ 4 K / 5 & . 5 & . 4 7 53GE7 F:7 MD?PE ABF;?;L3F;A@ ;E 3EEG?76 FA 4 7 5A@E;EF7@ F I;F: F:7 E:3D7: A>67D:AGE7:A>6PE ABF;?;L3F;A@ ' . *&% & , @ 7H 7DK B 7D;A 6 F:7 9A H 7 D@?7@ F 5A>>75FE >G?BEG? F 3J7E # 8DA? F:7 : AGE7:A>6 FA M@3@57 F:7 F3J 4 7@7MFE 8AD F :7 MD? 3@6 EFA 5 :3EF;5 EB 7@6;@9 67@AF76 4 K * 8A>>A I;@9 3@ ) BDA 57EE * * * 3@6 I:7D7 * ;E F:7 EF736K E F3F7 >7H 7> ;H 7 @ F:7 7JA97@AGE F3J 36H 3@ F397 3@6 9A H 7D@?7@ F E B 7 @6;@9 * F :7 >G?BEG? 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F:7 @AD?3> 6;EFD;4GF;A@ : : 3@6 3@6 3@6 * * * 3@6 I:7D7 * 3@6 3D7 F:7 EF736K EF3F7 >7H 7>E - & , ", , ". & $0 + " + @ F:;E E75F;A@ 6 A 5 G?7@ F F :7 43E;5 B DAB 7 DF;7E A8 F:7 ?A 67> 3@6 F:7@ 5>3D;8 K 7 ?B;D;53>>K F:7 D7>3F;H 7 ;?B ADF3@57 A8 F:7 M @3@5;3> E:A 5 = FA F:7 A F:7D E:A 5 =E BDA 6G5F ;H;F K >7;EGD7 BD787D7@57 3@6 9A H 7 D@?7@ F EB 7@6;@9 E F:7 MDEF EF7B 6 7F7D?;@7 F:7 H 3> G7E 8 AD F:7 ?A 67> B 3D3?7F7DE I;F: 5A@ H 7@ F;A@3> 53>;4D3F;A@ 3@6 ?3J;? G? >;= 7>;:A A 6 7 EF;?3F;A@ 8F7D 6 7F7D?;@7 F:7 B 3D3?7F7D H 3>G7E 5 : 75 = F:7 43E;5 B 7D8AD?3@57 A8 F:7 ?A 6 7> ;@ F7D?E A8 F:7 E75A@6 ?A?7@ F E 4 K 6 K@3?;5 E;? G>3F;A@E I:7D7 F:7 F;?7 E7D;7E A8 = 7 K H 3D; 34>7E 3D7 6D;H 7@ 4 K D3@6A?>K 97@7D3F76 E7CG7@57E A8 E :A 5 = E E 3 8 GDF:7D 7JB>AD3F;A @ A8 F:7 ?A 67> 75A@A? K 5A@6G5F H 3D;3@57 6 75A?B AE;F;A@E A@ D73> AGFBGF 5A@EG?BF;A@ ; @H7EF?7@ F 3@6 :AGDE I AD= 7 6 ; @ H 3D;AGE :AD;LA@E ;@3>>K 8 776 4 35 = F :7 E7CG7@57E A8 E:A 5 =E F:3F D 7B>;53F7 F:7 35FG3> ? A H 7?7@ FE ;@ F:7E7 H 3D;34>7E 3@6 F :7@ B 7D8AD? :;EFAD;53> 675A? BAE;F;A@E A@ F:7 !3B3@7E7 4GE;@7EE 5K5>7E 8DA? G @ F ;> FA E77 : A I ;?B ADF3@ F 735 : A8 F :7 E:A 5 =E ;E 8AD E:ADF DG@ N G5FG3F;A@E ; @ AGFBGF 5A@EG?BF;A@ ;@ H 7 EF?7@ F 3@6 :AGDE I AD= 7 6 *% ,*"1 ," ' & +:;E EG4E75F;A@ 4 79;@E I ;F: F:7 53>;4D3F;A@ A8 F:7 EFDG5FGD3> B3D3?7F7DE + :7 EFDG5FGD3> B3D3?7F7DE 3D7 5 :AE7@ F A ?;?;5 F:7 > A@9 D G@ 3 H 7D397 H 3>G7E A8 = 7 K ? 35DA 75A@ A?;5 H 3D; 34>7E + :7@ 7EF;?3F7 F:7 B3D3?7F7DE 8AD F :7 E:A 5 = B DA 57EE7E I;F: 3 ?3J;? G ? >;= 7>;:AA6 3BBDA35 : G E;@9 F:7 A4E7DH 7 6 F ;?7E7D;7E A8 = 7 K ? 35DA 75A@A?;5 H 3D;34>7E $"*,"'& ;DEF 67E5D;4 7 F:7 E7FF;@9 A8 F:7 E FDG5FGD3> B 3D3?7F7DE I:;5 : 3 D7 67F7D? ;@76 4 K F:7 EF736K EF3F7 H 3>G7E A8 ?35DA 75A@A?;5 H 3D;34>7E +:7 EG4 < 75F;H 7 6;E5AG@ F 835FAD ; E E 7F FA EA F:3F F:7 5A@EG?BF;A@' 3@6 ;@ H 7 EF?7@ F ' D3F;AE 3D7 F:7 CG3DF7D>K 3 H7D397E A H7D F:7 E3?B>7 B 7 D;A 6 + :7 ;@5A?7 E:3D7 A8 5 3B;F3> ; E E7F FA F:7 3 H 7 D397 H 3>G7 A8 3@@ G 3> 63F3 A H 7D F:7 E3?B>7 B 7D;A 6 +:7 6 7BD75;3F;A@ D 3F7 A8 5 3B;F3> ; E 5 A?BGF76 8DA? 3@@ G 3> 63F3 3@6 5 A@ H 7 DF76 FA ;FE C G3DF7D>K H 3>G7 +:7 F 3J I 7 697 8 AD F :7 D73> ;@ F7D7EF D3F7 ; E 5 A?BGF76 3E F:7 3@@ G 3> 3 H 7D397 H 3>G7 A8 F:7 F 3J D3F7 A@ 53B;F3> ; @5A?7 K 5A@EFDG5F;A@ F:7 B3D3?7F7D 8AD F :7 36<GEF?7@ F 5AEF A8 7CG;F K B 3 K AGF ; E 5 DG5;3> 8AD H 3D;3F;A@E ;@ 7CG;F K B 3 K AGF +:;E B3D3?7F7D H 3>G7 E:AG>6 4 7 ;@ 3 D 3@97 F:3F ;E 5A@E;EF7@ F I;F: F:7 H A>3F;>;F K A8 7CG;F K B 3 K AGF AD 7J3?B>7 ;@ !( ;F ;E E7F F A EA F:3F F:7 EF3@63D6 67H;3F;A@ A8 7CG;F K B 3 K AGF @AD?3>;L76 4 K AGFBGF ;E 7CG3> FA F:7 E3?B>7 3 H 7D397 8DA? F:7 >A I A 8 G@6E 55AG@ FE A8 F:7 7 67D3> ) 7E7DH 7 A3D6 ,@8ADF G@3F7>K 6A @AF : 3 H 7 G E78G> C G3DF7D>K 63F3 A@ !3B3@7E7 MD?EP 7CG;F K B 3 K AGF 3 F 3@ 399D 793F7 > 7H 7> 8AD 7 EF;?3F;@9 E7B3D3F7>K E F:7 4 7 @5 :?3D= H 3>G7 E7F 3F F:7 E3?7 H 3>G7 3E F :7 A@7 ! ( : 3 H 7 3 6ABF76 8 AD F:7 , * 75A@A? K 3@6 3>EA 5A@6G5F 3 E7@E;F;H;F K 3@3> KE;E A@ F:;E B3D3?7F7D ; @ EG4E75F;A@ %7JF F GD@ F A F:7 EF736K EF3F7 >7H 7>E A8 E:A 5 = H 3D;34>7E +:7 >7H 7> A8 BDA 6 G 5F;H;F K ; E @AD?3>;L76 FA G@;F K 5ADD7EB A@6;@9 F A : + :7 EF736K EF3F7 I 7;9: F A@ > 7;EGD7 ;@ F:7 B 7 D;A 6 GF;>;F K 8 G@5F;A@ ; E 5 :AE7@ EA 3E F A ?3= 7 : AGDE I AD= 76 7CG3> FA ; @ F :7 EF736K EF3F7 +:7 3 H 7 D397 9A H 7 D@?7@ F EB 7@6;@9' D3F;A ;E A4F3; @76 6 ;D75F>K 8 DA? F:7 CG3DF7D>K 3 H 7 D397 43E76 A@ F :7 % +:7 EF736K EF3F7 H 3>G7 8AD 3 5A H 7 D76 8 D35F;A@ A 8 F:7 MD?PE H 3>G7 ; E E 7F 3F E A F :3F F:7 EF736K EF3F7 D 3F;A A8 674F FA 53B;F3> EFA 5 = % - ; E 7 CG3> FA F:7 3 H 7D397 H 3>G7 8AD F:7 @A@M@3@5;3> 5 ADB AD3F;A@E A H 7 D F:7 E3?B>7 B 7 D;A 6 5A?BGF76 8DA? F:AE7 3@@ G 3> 63F3 +:7 B3D3?7F7D H 3>G7E 3 D7 EG??3D ;L76 ;@ + 34>7 F D;76 FA 7EF;? 3 F7 F:7 B 3D3? 7F7D 8AD 7 CG; F K B 3 K AGF 5 AEFE 3 @6 F:7 B 3D3? 7F7DE 8 AD F:7 E :A 5 = BDA 5 7EE7E E;? G >F3 @ 7 A G E >K I ; F: 3 ? 3 J ;? G ? >;= 7 >;: A A 6 3 B B D A 3 5 : A I 7 H 7 D F: 7 >;= 7 > ;: A A 6 ; E @ AF ; @ 8 A D ? 3F; H 7 7 @AG9: FA ;67@ F;8K 3@6 E A? 7 A 8 F :7 AF:7D E E; ?G > F 3@7AGE> K @ E G4E75F; A@ 5 A@6G5F 3 E7@E; F; H; F K 3@3> KE; E A@ F:7 B 3D3? 7F7D D73EA@34> 7 3> F7D@3F; H 7 I AG> 6 4 7 FA GE7 E A? 7 B 3@7> 63F3 43E76 A @ M D ? 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G? >;= 7 >; :A A 6 3BBDA35 : G E;@9 8AGD = 7 K ?35DA 75A@A?;5 F ;?7 E 7D;7E F :7 >A9E A8 D73> ' 5A@EG?B F;A@ ; @ H 7EF?7@ F 3@6 : AGDE I A D= 76 A H 7D F:7 E3?B>7 B 7 D;A 6 ( ( EEG?;@9 F :3F F :7 MD?PE M @3@5;@9 5 A@EFD3;@ F ; E 3 >I 3 K E 4 ;@6;@9 8AD F :7 EFDG 5FGD3> B3 D3?7F7DE E7F 3 4 A H 7 53@ > ;@73D;L7 F:7 ?A 67> 3DAG@6 F :7 EF736K EF3F7 3@6 5 : 3D35F7D;L7 ;FE 6K@3?;5 E A>GF;A@ E KEF7? 4 K F:7 EF3F7 E B357 D7BD7E7@ F3F;A@ E77 BB 7 @6;J %AF7 F:3F F :7 MD?PE M @3@5;@9 5 A@EFD3;@ F ; E @ AF @757EE3D;>K 4;@6;@9 F ;E @AF F:7 7EF;?3 F76 E :A 5 = B3D3?7 F7DE ;@ F:;E E G4E75F;A@ 4GF F:7 53>;4D3F76 EFDG5FGD3> B3D3?7F7DE ;@ F:7 B D7H;AGE E G4E75F;A@ I:;5 : 3D7 5 DG5;3> 8 AD I:7F:7D F:7 MD?PE M @3@5;@9 5 A@EFD3;@ F 4 ;@6E AD @AF ADFG@3F7>K 3E E77@ ;@ F:7 @7JF E75F;A@ I;F: F:7 34 A H 7 53>;4D3F76 B3D3?7F7DE F:;E 5 A@EFD 3;@ F ;E 3>I 3 KE 4;@6;@9 A H 7 D F :7 E3?B>7 B 7 D;A 6 +:;E 8 35F ; E 5 DG5;3> 8 AD 835;>;F3F;@9 F :7 5 A?BGF3F;A@ A8 F:7 ?A 67> 7EB 7 5;3>>K F:7 7EF;?3F;A@ A8 F:7 E:A 5 = B 3D3?7F7DE ,E;@9 F:7 E F3F7 EB357 D 7BD7E7@ F 3F;A@ A8 F :7 ?A 67> E KEF7? 5 A?BGF7 F :7 >;= 7>;:A A 6 8G@5F;A@ GE;@9 F :7 "3>?3@ M>F7D 3@6 M@6 F:7 7;9: F B3D3?7F7D H 3>G7E I :;5 : ?3 J;?;L7 F:7 >;= 7>;:A A 6 8AD F:7 34 A H 7 8 AGD A4E7DH 7 6 F ;?7 E7D;7E E77 BB 7 @6;J +: 7 7 EF;?3F7E 3D7 753GE7 F :7 3@3> KE; E A8 F:; E 7EE3 K ; E @ AF 3 4GE; @ 7EE 5 K5> 7 O 3 55AG@ F ; @9 P 8 A >>A I ;@ 9 3 G E G 3 > 5 A @ H 7 @ F ;A@ A 8 ) 3 @3> K E7E < GEF 3 EEG? 7 F :7 8 A GD E:A 5 =E FA 4 7 G@5AD D 7 > 3 F76 I ; F : 7 35 : A F: 7D 3 @ 6 7EF;? 3 F7 F:7 7 ;9: F B3D3? 7 F7DE 8AD F :7 8AGD E:A 5 = B DA 57EE7E F 53@ 4 7 5 A@ FDA H 7DE;3> I : 7F:7D F :7E7 8 A GD E:A 5 =E 3D 7 5 AD D 7 > 3 F 7 6 I; F : 735 : AF :7D A D @ AF 4GF F:7 ? AD 7 B 3D 3? 7F 7D E F A 4 7 7 EF ; ? 3F 76 I 7 :3 H 7 F :7 ? AD76;S5G>FKI7:3H7;@ ; 6 7@ F ; 8 K ; @ 9 F :AE7 B3D 3 ? 7 F 7 D E :3 H 7 5 : 75 = 7 6 F :7 5A H 3 D ; 3@57 ? 3 FD ; J A8 F:7 F;? 7 E7D;7E A8 F: 7 8 AG D E : A 5 = E 5A? B GF76 435 = 8 D A? F:7 ? A 6 7> EA 3E FA D73> ; L 7 F :7 35FG3> E7D; 7E A8 8 A GD 399D7 93F7E AGFBGF 5 A@EG? B F; A@ ; @ H 7 EF? 7 @ F 3@6 : AGDE I A D= 76 J . ; F: 3 M@; F7 E3? B > 7 F :7E7 @A@6; 39A@3> 7> 7? 7@ FE 3D7 @ AF L7DA 3EEG? 7 F:3F F:7E7 @ A@6; 39A@3> 7> 7? 7@ FE FA 4 7 L7D A I ; F : 3 @ ; @M@; F7 E3? B > 7 $ A EF 4GE; @ 7EE 5 K5> 7 3@3> KE7E D 7 > K A@ EG5 : 3 4 A > 6 3EEG? B F; A@ 3 E > A@9 3E F:7K 3D7 @ AF 3 4GE;@7EE 5 K5> 7 355AG@ F;@9 H 7 @ E A 4 753GE7 F :7 5ADD7> 3 F; A@ A8 F:7 > 7;EGD7 BD787D7@57 E:A 5 = 3@6 F :7 M@3@5; 3 > E :A 5 = E77? E D 7> 3F; H 7> K : ;9: F:7D7 ? 3 K 4 7 3 4 7FF7D F KB 7 A 8 E :A 5 = E ? A D 7 AD F : A9A@3> F A F :7 M@3@5;3 > E :A 5 = F :3@ F :7 > 7 ;E GD 7 B D 7 8 7 D 7 @57 E :A 5 = E E:A I @ ; @ ! ( I 7 E77 7 3E; > K F :3F F :; E 5 A@EFD 3 ; @ F ; E 4 ; @6; @9 ; @ F:7 E F 7 36K E F 3F7 I ; F : D7B ADF76 ;@ + 34>7 + :7 7EF;?3F76 E:A 5 = B DA 57EE7E 8AD B DA 6G5F;H;F K 3@6 M @ 3@5;3> 5A@6;F;A@ 3D7 : ;9:>K B 7DE;EF7@ F 3@6 +:7 > 7;EGD7 BD787D7@57 3>EA :3E : ;9: B 7 DE;EF7@57 3@6 :;9: H A >3F;>;F K 4 753GE7 ;F ;E EB 75;M76 ;@ F7D?E A8 >7H 7> @AF 9DA IF: D 3F7 +:7 ; @@A H 3F;A@ A 8 B DA 6G5F;H;F K F 3= 7E 3 5 A@ H 7 @ F ; A@3>>K D73EA@34>7 H3>G7 3E 3 > A9@AD?3> 8AD? I:;>7 F:7 ;@@A H 3F;A@ A8 F:7 M @3@5;3> 5 A@6;F;A@ ;E D7>3F;H 7 >K H A>3F;>7 0&%" "% - $,"'& & '& '%& ,+ &@57 A4F3;@ F :7 $# 7EF;?3F7E A8 E:A 5 = B DA 57EE7E 5 3@ 5A@6G5F EFA 5 : 3EF;5 6K@3?;5 E;? G >3F;A@E F A 5 :75 = F:7 43E;5 B 7D8AD?3@57 A8 F:7 ?A 67> 4 K 5 A?B3D;@9 F :7 E7 5A@6 ?A?7@ F E A8 F:7 3 5FG3> 3@6 E;? G >3F76 ?35DA 75A@A?;5 H 3D;34>7E D7B 7 3F 6K@3?;5 E;? G>3F;A@E F;?7E G E;@9 D3@6A?>K 6 D3 I@ E7CG7@57E A8 E :A 5 = E @ 735 : E;? G >3F;A@ F:7 EB3 @ A8 F ;?7 E7D;7E ;E CG3DF7DE I :;5 : ;E 7CG3> F A F:3F A8 F:7 E3?B>7 B 7 D;A 6 +:7@ F3= 7 F:7 3 H 7 D397 A8 F:AE7 D7EG>FE E A F :3F F:7 5A?BGF3F;A@3> 7 T75FE A8 3 D3@6A? E776 97@7D3F76 4 K 3 5A? BGF7D 3D7 @79>;9;4>7 $AD7 E;? G>3F;A@E :3D6>K 5 : 3@97 F:7 D 7EG>FE +:7 5A?BGF76 EF3 @63D6 6 7H;3F;A@E 3@6 5 ADD7>3F;A@E I ;F: AGFBGF 3D7 >;EF76 5A>G?@ O*;? G>3F;A@P F A97F:7D I ;F: F:7 35FG3> A@7E 5A>G?@ O 3F3P ;@ + 34>7 E E77@ ; @ F :;E F 34>7 F:7 ?A 6 7> D7B>;53F7E D73EA@34>K F:7 35FG3> 5 ADD7>3F;A@E I ;F: AGFBGF $AD7 ;?B ADF3@ F>K F:7 ?A 67> D 7BDA 6G5 7E F:7 35FG3> EF3@63D6 67H;3F;A@E A8 AGFBGF ;@ H 7 EF?7@ F 3@6 9A H 7 D@?7@ F EB 7@6;@9 CG;F 7 I 7>> >EA F:7 E;? G >3F76 5 ADD7>3F;A@ 4 7 F I 7 7@ ;@ H 7 EF?7@ F 3@6 : AGDE I AD= 76 ; E H 7D K 5>AE7 FA F:7 35FG3> H 3>G7 + :7 ?A 67> I ;F: F :7 M@3@5;3> E:A 5 = 3@6 MD?PE M @3@5;@9 5A@EFD3;@ F ?3= 7E 9A A 6 B 7 D8AD?3@57 ;@ F7D?E A8 F :7 E75A@6 ?A?7@ FE A8 ; @ H 7EF?7@ F &@ F:7 AF:7D :3@6 F :7 E;? G >3F76 E F3@63D6 6 7H;3F;A@E A8 5 A@EG?BF;A@ 3@6 : A GDE I AD= 76 3D7 : ;9:7D F :3@ F :7 35FG3> A@7E +:;E D 7EG>F 5 A@ FD3EFE I ;F: F :7 835F F:3F 3 E F3@63D6 ) ?A 67> D 7EG>FE ;@ >A I 7 D EF3@63D6 6 7H;3F;A@E A8 F:7E7 H 3D;34>7E F:3@ F :7 A4E 7DH 3F;A@E 4 753GE7 5A@EG?BF;A@ E?A AF:;@9 F7@6E F A 4 7 F A A EFDA@9 ;@ EG5 : 3 ? A 6 7> +:7D7 3BB 7 3D F I A D73EA@E 8AD F:;E 6 ;T7D7@57 ;DEF A8 3>> F:7 M@3@5;3> E :A 5 = 3T75FE > 34 AD 3@6 5 A@EG ?BF;A@ NG5FG 3F;A@E 3E I 7 >> 3E ;@ H 7 EF?7@ F NG5FG3F;A@E F :DAG9: F:7 ? G>F;B>;7D 8 AD F:7 M D ?PE 4 ADDA I;@9 5A@EFD3;@ F 4 7 53GE7 F :;E ? G>F;B>;7D 35FE 3E 3 F 3J I 7 697 A@ F :7 I 397 D3F7 * 75 A@6 F:7 7E F;?3F76 >7;EGD7 B D787D7@57 ?3 K @AF 4 7 34>7 F A 5 3BFGD7 B DAB 7 D>K > 34 AD NG5FG 3F;A@E ;@6G576 4 K EA?7 6 ;EFADF;A@ 3@6 D;9;6;F K ;@ F:7 ! 3B3@7E7 > 34 AD ?3D= 7 F +:;E ; ?B>;7E F:3F F:7D7 3D7 AF:7D EAGD57E A8 6;E5D7B3@5K 4 7F I 7 7@ F:7 ?3D9;@3> B DA 6G5F;H;F K A8 > 34 AD 3 @6 F:7 ?3D= 7 F I 397 D3F7 F:3@ MD?EP M@3@5;3> 5 A@6;F;A@E + A G@67DEF3@6 :A I F :7 M@3@5;3> E:A 5 = ;@6G57E >34 AD N G5FG3F;A@E I 7 5 A@E;6 7D F:7 MD?PE MDEF AD67D 5 A@6;F;A@E I ;F: D 7EB 7 5F FA >34 AD 6 7?3@6 3@6 7CG;F K B3 K AGF ' 9 . 7 I:7D7 3@6 3D7 F:7 ? G >F;B>;7DE 8 AD F:7 M@3@5;@9 3@6 4 G697F 5 A@EFD3;@ FE D 7EB 7 5F;H 7> K 3@57>>;@9 8DA? F:7E7 7CG3F;A@E D7EG>FE ; @ 7 ' 9 . +:;E 7CG3F;A@ E:A IE F:3F F:7 ? G>F;B>;7D 8AD F :7 MD?PE M @3@5;@9 5 A@EFD3;@ F 35FE 3E 3 6 A I @ I 3D6 I 7697 A@ F:7 I 397 D3F7 8DA? F:7 ? 3D9;@3> B DA 6G5F;H;F K A8 > 34 AD E H 7 D;M76 ; @ F:7 EG4E75F;A@ F:;E ? G>F;B>;7D H 3D;7E I;F: F:7 F ;9: F @7EE A8 F:7 M D?PE M@3@5;@9 5A@EFD3;@ F +:;E F ;9: F@7EE ;E 6;D75F>K 3T75F76 4 K F:7 M@3@5;3> E:A 5 = @7 93F;H 7 M @3@5;3> E:A 5 = F:3F D 76G57E F:7 M@3@5;3> EF3F7 H 3D;34>7 ?3= 7E F:7 M D?PE M@3@5;@9 5A@EFD3;@ F F;9: F7D 4 753GE7 7CG;F K B 3 K AGF 6 75D73E7E A@>K 9D36G3>>K ;@ F:7 B D7E7@57 A8 ;FE 36<GEF?7@ F 5AEF + :;E ; ?B>;7E 3@ ;@5D73E7 ;@ F:7 ? G>F;B>;7D 3F F:7 ?A?7@ F 3@6 3 675D73E7 ;@ F:7 I 397 D3F7 A@E7CG7@ F>K F:7 M@3@5;3> E:A 5 = ; @6G57E >34 A D N G5FG3F;A@E F:DAG9: F:;E I 7697 A@ F:7 I 397 D3F7 * ;?;>3D>K FA !(PE CG3@ F;F3F;H 7 D7EG>FE :A I 7 H 7 D ;FE ; ?B35 F A @ 5 A@EG?BF;A@ 3D7 ; @6;D75F F :DAG9: F:7 : AGE7:A>6PE ;@ FD3F7?B A D3> G>7D 7CG3F;A@ 7 & . 3@6 : 7@57 >A I 7 D F:3@ F :AE7 A@ :AGDE I AD= 7 6 3@6 ;@ H 7 EF?7@ F +:7D78AD7 5 A?B 3D76 I;F: 3 EF3@63D6 ) ?A 6 7> F:7 ?A 6 7> ;E >;= 7>K FA BDA 6G57 : ;9:7D E F3@63D6 6 7H;3F; A@E A8 : AGDE I AD= 76 3@6 ; @ H 7EF?7@ F 3@6 3 E>;9: F>K : ;9:7D EF3@63D6 6 7H;3F;A@ A8 5A@EG?B F;A@ )793D6;@9 F:7 E75A@6 B A;@ F ;F ;E ;?B ADF3@ F F :3F F :7 53>;4D3F76 ?A 6 7> E:A I E : ;9: B 7D E;EF7@57 3@6 H A>3F;>;F K A8 F:7 >7;EGD7 B D787D7@57 E:A 5 = @ 9 7@7D3> F:7 ;@ 5>GE;A@ A8 F:;E E:A 5 = E77?E F A D 3;E7 F:7 EF3@63D6 67H;3F;A@E A8 :AGDE I AD= 7 6 3@6 5A@EG?BF;A@ 3E ; E A4 H;AGE 8DA? F:7 34 A H 7 ; @ F D3F7?B AD3> G>7D 7CG3F;A@ %AF7 F :3F ; @ F :7 ?A 67> F:;E E :A 5 = ;E <GEF ;@ F7@676 FA 53BFGD7 > 34 AD NG5FG3F;A@E 5 3GE76 4 K AF:7D 8 D;5F;A@E 3@6 D 79;6 ;F K ; @ F:7 >34 AD ?3D= 7 F A I 7 H 7 D F:;E E:A 5 = ?;9: F @ AF 4 7 I 7>> 7EF;?3F76 I;F: 3 G EG3> ?3J;? G ?>;=7>; :A A 6 3BBDA35 : +:7 ? A 6 7> D7CG;D7E 8AGD E:A 5 =E 8AD : ;EFAD;53> 6 75A?B AE;F; A@E A@ 8 AGD = 7K ?35DA 75A@A?;5 H 3D;34>7E AGFBGF 5A@EG?BF;A@ ;@ H 7 EF?7@ F 3@6 :AGDE I A D= 76 D7F3;@ F:;E E B 7 5;M53F;A@ 8 AD F:7 ?A 6 7> FA 4 7 73E;>K FD35F34>7 *" & '% ( ' +" ,"'&+ %7JF FGD@ F A H 3D;3@57 6 75A?B AE;F;A@E + 34>7 D 7B ADFE F:7 D7>3F;H 7 5A@ F D ;4GF;A@E A8 735 : E:A 5 = F A F :7 H 3D;3@57E A8 AGFBGF 5A@EG?BF;A@ ;@ H 7 EF?7@ F 3@6 >34 AD A H 7 D 8AD753EF :AD;LA@E A8 ( ( ( 3@6 ( E E:A I @ ; @ F :7 F34>7 F:7 B DA 6G5F;H;F K E :A 5 = 3@ 6 >7;EGD7 BD787D7@57 E:A 5 = 3 D7 F:7 ?3;@ 6 D;H;@9 8AD57E A8 AGFBGF 3@6 5 A@EG?BF;A@ NG5 FG3F;A@E @ F :7 E:ADFDG@ 3@6 ?76;G?DG@ 735 : A8 F:7E7 F I A E:A 5 =E 355AG@ FE 8AD ?AD7 F:3@ B7D57@ F A8 AGFBGF 3@6 5 A@EG?BF;A@ NG5FG3F;A@E I:;>7 F :7 D7?3;@;@9 > 7EE F:3@ B 7D5 7@ F ; E 355AG@ F 76 8AD 4 K F:7 M@3@5;3> E:A 5 = +:7 5 A@ FD;4GF;A@E A8 F:7 9A H 7 D@?7@ F EB 7@6;@9 E: A 5 = 3D7 CG;F7 E?3>> +:7 5A@ F D;4GF;A@E A8 F:7 B DA 6G5F;H;F K E:A 5 = 3@6 F :7 M@3@5;3> E:A 5 = 675>;@ 7 ; @ F:7 >A@9 DG@ 4 753GE7 F:7 B 7 DE;EF7@57 A8 F :7 >7;EGD7 B D787D7@57 E:A 5 = ;E >3D97D F:3@ F:AE7 A8 F:7 AF:7DE F ;E I ADF: I:;>7 @ AF;@9 F:3F EA?7 6;EFADF;A@ ;@:7D7@ F FA F:7 ! 3B3@7E7 > 34 A D ?3D= 7 F I:AE7 7J;EF7@57 ; E EG997EF76 4 K D3G@ EF743@'D7F7> &= 363 3@6 * G6A ;E @AF ?A 6 7>76 7JB>;5;F>K ;@ F:;E B 3B 7D 4 GF ;F ;E 53BFGD76 4 K F:7 > 7;EGD7 BD787D7@57 E:A 5 = E 3 D 7EG>F F :;E E:A 5 = ; E : ;9:>K H A>3F;>7 3@6 B 7 DE;EF7@ F F : G E ?3=;@9 > 3D97 5A@ F D;4GF;A@E FA ?35DA 75A@A?;5 NG5FG3F;A@E ; @ F:7 >A@9 DG@ F ; E 97@7D 3 >> K = @A I@ F : 3F ? A H 7 ? 7 @ F E ;@ A GFBGF 3 D 7 ? 3 ;@ > K 6D ; H 7@ 4 K 3 B D A 6G5 F; H; F K E:A 5 = 3 @6 3 E :A 5 = F:3F ; E FA 4 7 3 B DA JK 8 A D > 34 AD I 7 697E E 3 D757@ F 7J3? B> 7 *? 7FE 3 @6 . A GF7DE E:A I F:3F 3 BD A 6G5F ; H;F K E:A 5 = 3 @6 3 O I 397 ? 3 D = GBP E:A 5 = 3 D 7 ? A D 7 ;? B A D F 3@ F 8 AD F:7 , * AGF BGF ? A H 7 ? 7 @ F E 4 K +:7 M@3@5;3> E:A 5 = ; E F :7 ?3;@ 6 D;H;@9 8 AD57 A8 ;@ H 7 EF?7@ F NG5FG3F;A@E ; @ F :7 E:ADF DG@ 3 @6 3T75FE 7 H 7 @ F :7 E:ADF D G@ >34 AD N G5FG3F;A@E 4 GF F:7 5 A@ FD;4GF;A@E 63?B 6A I@ CG;5 =>K ;@ 3 > A@97D 8 AD753EF :AD;LA@ 8 AD F:7 E3?7 D73EA@ +:7 >7;EGD7 B D787 D7@57 E:A 5 = ;E F:7 6A?;@3@ F EAGD57 A8 3>> A8 F:7 ?35DA 75A@A?;5 N G5FG3F;A@E ;@ CG3DF7DE AD > A@97D : AD;LA@E "+ ,'*" $ '% ( ' +" ," '&+ .;F: F:7 34 A H 7 $ # 7 EF;?3FADE I 7 5 3@ 3>EA 5A@EFDG5F F :7 E7D;7E A8 E:A 5 =E I:;5 :3>>AIF:7 ?A 67> F A D 7B>;53F7 7J35F>K F:7 35FG3> F ;?7 E7D;7E A8 = 7 K ?35DA 75A@A?;5 H 3D ;34>7E 7D7 53@ 435 = GB F:7 8AGD E:A 5 =E GE;@9 8 AGD 'M>F7D76 H 3D;34>7E ' 5 A@EG?BF;A@ ; @ H 7EF?7@ F 3@6 : AGDE I A D= 76 +:7 B 7 D57@ F397 67H;3F;A@E A8 F:7E7 E:A 5 = E 8 DA? F :7 FD7@6 3D7 6 7B;5F76 ;@ ;9GD7 @ ;9GD7 F:7 5A?BGF76 M @3@5;3> N A I H 3 D;34>7E F:7 MD?PE 7 CG;F K B 3 K AGF 3@ 6674F D7BGD5 :3E7 ;EEG3@57 3D7 B >AFF76 FA97F:7D I;F: F:7 ? G>F;B>;7D 8 AD F:7 M D ?PE M@3@5;@9 5 A@ EFD3;@ F 74F D7BGD5 :3E7 5ADD7EB A@6E F A 3 675D73E7 ;@ AGFEF3@6;@9 6 74F ; 8 ;F ;E B AE;F;H 7 E E:A I @ ; @ F:7 M9GD7 F:7 ? G >F;B>;7D A@ F:7 M@3@5;@9 5 A@EFD3;@ F ; E B AE;F;H 7 3 >> A H 7D F:7 E 3?B>7 B 7 D;A 6 E +:;E ; ?B>;7E F:3F F:7 M@3@5;@9 5 A@EFD3;@ F ; E 3>I 3 K E 4 ;@6;@9 6GD; @9 F:7 B 7D;A 6E H 3>;63F;@9 F:7 >;@73D;L76 EA>GF;A@ FA F:7 ?A 67> F ;E I ADF: I:;>7 @AF;@9 F :3F F :7 ? G >F;B>;7D F7@6E F A 6 75D73E7 ;@ 4 A A?E 3@6 F 3= 7 : ;9:7D H 3>G7E 6 GD;@9 D 757EE;A@E +:;E E G997EFE F :3F F:7 MD?PE M @3@5;@9 5 A@EFD3;@ F 4 75A?7E > A AE7D ; @ 4 A A?E 3@6 F ;9: F 7D 6GD;@9 D 757EE;A@E ;D?EP 36<GEF?7@ F A8 F:7;D M@3@5;3> B A E;F;A@E : 3E ? G 5 : FA 6A I;F: ?A H 7 ?7@ F E ; @ F:7 ? G >F;B>;7D CG;F K B 3 K AGF ; E @ 793F;H 7>K 5ADD7>3F76 I ;F: F:7 ? G >F;B>;7D I:;>7 674F D7BGD5 :3E7 ;E B AE;F;H 7 >K 5ADD7>3F76 I ;F: ; F @ AF:7D I AD6E 7CG;F K B 3 K AGF ; E 5 K5>;53 > 3@6 674F D7BGD5 :3E7 ;E 5AG@ F7D5K5>;53> +:7 ?A 67> 5 3BFGD7E F:;E @ 793F;H 7 5 ADD7>3F;A@ 4 7 F I 77 @ 7CG;F K B 3 K AGF 3 @6 674F D7BGD5 :3E7 $AD7 EB 75;M53>>K CG;F K B 3 K AGF ; @5D73E7E ; @ 4 A A?E I:;> 7 6 74F D 7BGD5 : 3E7 EF3 K E > A I 7D 3DAG@6 D757EE;A@E +:;E E G997EFE F :3F M D?E : 3 H 7 3@ ; @57@ F;H 7 F A D76G57 F :7;D AGFEF3@6;@9 6 74F 4 K D 76G5;@9 7CG;F K B 3 K AGF ; @ D 757EE;A@E GFF;@9 6A I@ AG FEF3@6;@9 6 74F D7>3J7E F:7 M @3@5;@9 5 A@EFD3;@ F @ F:7 B D7E7@57 A8 F :7 D;9;6;F K A8 7CG;F K B3 K AGF 3@6 F :7 M@3@5;@9 5 A@EFD3;@ F F:;E D 7EB A@E7 7 ?7D97E E>;9: F >K 4 7 :;@6 F:7 A 5 5GDD7@ 57 A8 3 D757EE;A@ 7EF; ? 3 F;@9 3 E AB:; EF;53F76 % 7 I " 7K 7E; 3 @ ? A 6 7> I ; F: 3 3 K 7E; 3 @ > ;= 7>; : A A 6 3BBD A35 : %7JF 3EE7EE : A I ;?B ADF3@ F 7 35 : A8 F :7 8AGD E:A 5 =E ;E 8AD 7 JB>3;@;@9 EA?7 A8 F:7 7 H 7 @ F E A H 7D F:7 B 7 D;A 6 ; @ ! 3B3@ ;EFAD;53> 6 75A?B AE;F;A@E BDA H ;67 8 D G;F8G> ;@E;9: FE ;@ FA F:;E D 793D6 4 K ; @67@ F;8K;@9 F :7 D7>3F;H 7 5A@ F D;4GF;A@ A8 735 : E:A 5 = F A F :7 67H;3F;A@E A8 = 7 K ?35DA 75A@A?;5 H 3D;34>7E ;@ 735 : B 7 D;A 6 @ B 3DF;5G>3D 7JB>AD7 F:7 7?B;D ;53> ; ?B ADF3@57 A8 F:7 M@3@5;3> E:A 5 = ;@ F:7 !3B3@7E7 :;EFAD;53> 7 H 7 @ F E ;9GD7 3@6 E :A I : ;EFAD;53> 675A?B AE;F;A@E A8 F:7 B 7 D57@ F397 67H;3F;A@E A8 AGFBGF ; @ H 7EF?7@ F >34 A D 3@6 5 A@EG?BF;A@ 8DA? F:7 FD7@6 D7EB 75F;H 7>K E E77@ ;@ ;9GD7 F:7 BDA 6 G5F;H;F K E:A 5 = ;E F:7 ?3;@ 6 D;H;@9 8AD57 A8 A GFB GF 67H;3F;A@E ;@ ?AEF A8 F:7 K 7 3DE +:7 >7;EGD7 B D787D7@57 E :A 5 = 3@6 F:7 M@3@5;3> E:A 5 = 3D 7 3>EA ; ?B ADF3@ F 8AD EA?7 A8 F:7 K 73DE EB 75;3>>K F:7 M @3@5;3> E :A 5 = :3E E G4EF3@ F;3>>K @7 93F;H 7 7T75FE A@ AGFBGF ?A H 7 ?7@ F E F:DAG9: 675>;@7E ;@ ;@ H 7 EF?7@ F ;@ F:7 8A>>A I;@9 B 7 D;A 6 E F :7 ?;6E I;F: F:7 !3B3@7E7 K 7 @ 3BBD75;3F;A@ 38F7D F :7 '>3L3 55AD6 38F7D F :7 5A>>3BE7 A8 3@ O3EE7F BD;57 4 G44>7P I ;F: 3@ 38F7D?3F: A8 F :7 E;3@ M@3@5;3> 5D;E; E 3@6 I;F: F:7 A 55GD3@57 A8 4 36>A3@ BDA4>7?E 4 K 6 A?7EF;5 43@=E . 7 E77 F :3F B AE; F;H 7 7T75FE A8 F:7 M@3@5;3> E:A 5 = E:A I G B 4 7:;@6 F:AE7 A8 F:7 BDA 6 G5F;H;F K E:A 5 =E ;@ F:7 O 4 G44>7P B 7 D;A 6 A8 F:7 73D>K E +:;E EG997EFE F:3F F :7 7T75FE A8 F :7 M@3@5;3> E:A 5 = A@ F:7 M D?PE 4 ADDA I ;@9 34;>;F K 3D7 3?B>;M76 4 K ;?BDA H 7?7@ FE ;@ F:7 MD?PE B DAMF34;>;F K :7@57 F:7 @7F I ADF: 6 G7 FA B 7 DE;EF7@ F 5ADD7>3F;A@ I;F: B AE;F;H 7 BDA 6 G5F;H;F K E:A 5 =E I:;5 : : 3E A 5 5GDD76 4 78AD7 +:7 4 A A? ;@ I:;5 : ;E A8F7@ D 787DD76 F A 3E F:7 O + 4 G44>7P 3@6 F:7 D757E E;A@ ;@ I;F: F:7 A 5 5GD3@57 A8 4 36>A3@ B DA4>7?E 3D7 9A H 7 D@76 4 K F:7 M @3@5;3> E:A 5 = D3F:7D F:3@ 4 K F:7 BDA 6 G5F;H;F K E:A 5 = &@ F:7 AF:7D : 3@6 ;@ !3B3@ F :7 M@3@5;3> E :A 5 = 5A @ F D;4GF7E >7EE F A F :7 ?AEF D757@ F D 757EE;A@ 6G7 F A F :7 M@3@5;3> 5 D;E;E ; @ F:3@ F:7 BDA 6G5F;H;F K E:A 5 = 3@6 F:7 >7;EGD7 B D787D7@57 E:A 5 = +:7 9A H 7 D@?7@ F EB 7@6;@9 E:A 5 = : 3D 6>K ; @NG7@57E !3B3@7E7 AGFBGF NG5FG3F;A@E A H 7 D 3>?AEF 3>> F:7 B 7 D;A 6 E 67B;5F76 ;@ ;9GD7 F:7 M@3@5;3> E :A 5 = 4 7 5A?7E F :7 ?3;@ 6 D;H;@9 8AD57 A8 ;@ H 7EF ?7@ F NG5FG3F;A@E I:;>7 F:7 7 T75FE A8 F:7 BDA 6 G5F;H;F K E :A 5 = 3@6 F:7 >7;EG D7 BD787D7@57 E:A 5 = 4 75A?7 ?A 67D3F7 + :7 5A@ F D;4GF;A@E A8 F:7 M@3@5;3> E:A 5 = F A ; @ H 7EF? 7@ F H 3D;3F;A@E 3D7 B 3D3>>7> F A F:AE7 FA AGFBGF H 3D;3F;A@E 3E 6A 5G?7@ F 76 34 A H 7 #3D97 B AE; F;H 7 5A@ F D;4G F;A@E A8 F:7 M@3@5;3> E:A 5 = 3D7 6 7F75F76 ;@ 3@6 %793F;H 7 5A@ F D;4GF;A@E A8 F:7 M@3@5;3> E:A 5 = 3D7 D 7?3D= 34>7 ; @ 3@6 E E:A I @ ; @ ;9GD7 @ AF A@>K F:7 >7;EGD7 B D787D7@57 E:A 5 = 4GF 3>EA F :7 M@3@ 5;3> E:A 5 = ;E 3@ ;?B A DF3@ F EAGD57 A8 > 34 AD NG5FG3F;A@E I:;>7 F:7 B DA 6G5F;H;F K E:A 5 = 3@6 9A H 7D@?7@ F EB 7@6;@9 E:A 5 = B >3 K A@>K ?;@AD DA>7E E 6;E5GEE76 34 A H 7 F :DAG9: F:7 ? G >F ;B>;7D A@ F :7 MD?PE M @3@5;@9 5 A@EFD3;@ F F:3F 35FE 3E 3 F 3J I 7 697 A@ F:7 I 397 D3F7 F :7 M@3@ 5;3> E:A 5 = :3E E;9@;M53@ F 7 T75FE A@ > 34 AD H 3D;3F;A@E ;@ ?3@ K B 7D;A 6E & 8 5 AGDE7 F:7 E ;L7 A8 F :7 M@3@5;3> E:A 5 = 53@ 4 7 5 A@ FDA H 7DE;3> 4 7 53GE7 3E D7B ADF76 ;@ + 3 4>7 F :7 ?A 67> EFG6;76 ;@ F:;E B 3B 7D F7@6 FA BDA 6 G57 3 :;9:7D EF3@63D6 67H;3F;A@ A 8 : AGDE I AD= 76 F:3@ F:7 A4E7DH 7 6 A@7 @EF736 A8 EA?7 6;EFADF;A@ I:;5 : E77?E FA 7J;EF ; @ F :7 !3B3@7E7 >34 AD ? 3D= 7 F <GEF F:7 >7;EGD7 B D787D7@57 E:A 5 = ;E ;@5ADB AD3F76 ;@ FA F:7 ? A 6 7> ;@67B 7 @67@ F>K A 8 F:7 BDA 6G5F;H;F K E:A 5 = 3@6 F:7 M @3@5;3> E:A 5 = + :7 7JB>;5;F ?A 67>;@9 A8 AF:7D 6 ;EFADF;A@ 3@ 6 D ;9;6;F K ; @ F :7 >34 AD ? 3D= 7 F :A I 7 H 7 D ;E 5A?B>;53F76 3@6 AGF A8 F :7 E5AB 7 A 8 F :;E B 3B 7D ;@3>>K ;9GD7 ;@6;53F7E F :3F 5 A@EG?BF;A@ ?A H 7 ?7@ F E 3D7 ?3;@>K 6 D;H 7 @ 4 K F:7 BDA 6G5F;H;F K E :A 5 = +:7 >7;EGD7 B D787D7@57 E:A 5 = 3>EA I AD=E 7 T75F;H 7>K ; @ EA ?7 B 7 D;A 6 E I:;>7 F:7 DA>7 A8 F:7 M @3@5;3> E :A 5 = 4 75A?7E ? A 6 7D3F7 A H 7 D 3>> F:7 E3?B>7 B 7 D;A 6 +:7 ; ?B35FE A8 9A H 7 D@?7@ F EB 7@6;@9 E:A 5 = 3D7 H 7 DK E?3>> &+",".", 0 & $0+" + E : 3 H 7 ?7@ F;A@76 ;@ E75F;A@ F:7 B3D3?7F7D D7>7H 3@ F 8 AD 7CG;F K B 3 K AGF 5 AEFE 5 3@@AF 4 7 67F7D?;@76 4 K 3 ?3J;? G? >;= 7 >;:A A 6 3BBDA35 : E;? G>F3@7AGE>K %AF7 F :3F 6A 7E @AF 3T75F 3@ K E F736K E F3F7 H 3D;34>7E + :7 AF:7D EFDG5FGD3> B3D3?7F7DE F:3F 3T 75F F:7 EF736K EF3F7 H 3>G7E 3D7 B;@@76 6A I@ 3F F:7 E 3?7 H 3>G7E 3E ; @ + 34>7 7 J3?;@7 :A I ? G 5: F:7 53>;4D3F76 H 3>G7 A8 ;@NG7@57E F:7 E:A 5 = B DA 57EE7E 3@6 H 3D;3F;A@E ;@ = 7 K ?35DA 75A@A?;5 H 3D;34>7E + 34>7 EG??3D;L7E F:7 $# 7 EF;?3F7E A8 F:7 E:A 5 = B 3D3?7F7DE 8 AD H 3D;AGE H 3> G7E A 8 ;@ 5A?B3D;EA@ I;F: F:7 4 7 @5 :?3D= H 3>G7 +:7 MDEF H 3>G7 ;E 8AD 3 53E7 A8 ? G 5 : ?AD7 N 7J;4>7 36<GEF?7@ F 34 AGF A@7 F 7@ F: A8 F:7 4 7@5 : ?3D= H 3>G7 3@6 F:7 >3EF H 3 >G7 ;E 8AD 3 53E7 A8 5AEF>;7D 36<GEF?7@ F 34 A GF F I ;57 3E :;9: 3 E F :7 4 7 @5 :?3D= H 3>G7 + :7 EF3@63D6 67H;3F;A@ A 8 F :7 ?A 67>97@7D3F76 7 CG;F K B 3 K AGF @AD ?3>;L76 4 K AGF BGF ;E 3>EA D7B ADF76 ;@ F:7 E75A@6 D 3 I A8 + 34>7E D7H 7 3>;@9 F :3F F :7 EF3@6 3D6 6 7H;3F;A@ A8 7CG;F K B 3 K AGF 6 75D73E7E I ;F: 3 :;9:7D B3D3?7F7D ;H 7@ F:7 4 7@5 : ?3D= H 3>G7 A8 3@6 7EF;?3F7E A8 F:7 E:A 5 = B 3D3?7F7DE F:7 ?A 67> B DA 6G57E A8 F:7 EF3@63D 6 6 7H;3F;A@ A8 7CG;F K B3 K AGF I:;5 : ;E 3@3>A9AGE F A F:7 , * H 3>G7 5 A?BGF76 4 K !( F F GD @E AGF F :3F F:7 ) 5 A 7 S5;7@ F 3@6 EF3@63D6 67H;3F;A@ A8 F:7 M @3@5;3> E:A 5 = H 3DK ?A 67 D3F7>K I;F: 6;T7D7@ F H 3>G7E A8 @ B 3DF;5G>3D 3 : ;9:7D H 3>G7 A8 >A I 7 DE F:7 ) 5 A 7 S5;7@ F A8 F :7 M@3@5;3> E :A 5 = + :;E ; @6;53F7E F:3F 7CG;F K B 3 K AGF 4 75A?7E > 7EE H A>3F;>7 3 @6 F:7 M@3@5;3> E:A 5 = 4 75A?7E > 7EE B 7DE;EF7@ F 3E F:7 36<GEF?7@ F A8 7CG;F K B 3 K AGFE 4 7 5A?7E 5AEF>;7D @ 5A@ F D3EF F :7 B3D3?7F7DE 67F7D?;@;@9 F:7 BDA 6G5F;H;F K E:A 5 = 3@6 > 7;EGD7 BD787D7@57 E:A 5 = :3D6>K 67B 7 @6 A@ F:7 H 3>G7 A8 AF: F :7 E:A 5 =E D7?3;@ : ;9:>K B 7DE;EF7@ F +:;E ;?B>;7E F:3F F :7 D7>3F;H 7 5A@ F D;4GF;A@E A8 F :7 BDA 6 G5F;H;F K E:A 5 = 3@6 F:7 >7;EGD7 BD787D7@57 E:A 5 = I AG>6 @ AF 5 : 3@97 CG3@ F;F3F;H 7>K ;@ >A@9 DG@ +:7D78AD7 F:7E7 E:A 5 =E D7?3 ;@ F:7 ?3;@ 6D;H;@9 8 AD57E A8 >A@9 DG@ N G5FG3F;A@E ;@ AGFBGF 5A@EG?BF;A@ 3@6 ; @ H 7EF ?7@ F +:;E M @6 ;@9 I AG>6 4 7 DA4GEF 8AD 3 D73>;EF;5 H 3>G7 A8 F:3F 5 AG>6 4 7 676G576 8DA? 3@ A4E7DH 3F;A@ A 8 F:7 EF3@63D6 67H;3F;A@ A8 7 CG;F K B 3 K AGF 3>EA 5 :75 = :A I ? G5 : F:7 7T75FE A8 735 : E:A 5 = A@ = 7K 399D793F7 NG5FG3F;A@E 5 :3@97 ; @ E:ADF7D : AD;LA@E 355AD6;@9 FA F:7 H 3>G7 A8 + 34>7 D 7B ADFE F:7 D 7EG>FE A8 E:ADF7D : AD;LA@ ( 3@6 ( H 3D;3@57 6 75A?B AE;F;A@E A@ AGFBGF ; @ H 7EF?7@ F 3@6 > 34 AD NG5 FG3F;A@E 8 AD F:D77 6;T7D7@ F H 3>G7E A8 3@6 @ ;?B ADF3@ F D 7EG>F ; E F :3F 3E F:7 B3D3?7F7D ;@5D73E7E F:7 D7>3F;H 7 ;?B35F A8 F:7 M @3@5;3> E:A 5 = ;@ E:ADF : AD;LA@E 4 7 5 A?7 9D73F7D I:;>7 F:AE7 A8 F:7 > 7;EGD7 BD787D7@57 E:A 5 = 4 75A?7 E?3>>7D .;F: ;@5D73E76 AGFBGF ; @ H 7EF?7@ F 3@6 : AGDE I AD= 76 F7@6 FA E:A I :;9:7D D7EB A@E;H 7 @7EE F A F :7 M@3@5;3> E:A 5 = +:;E B DAB 7 DF K ; E > ;= 7>K FA 3T75F F:7 C G3@ F ;F3F;H 7 D 7EG>FE A8 :;EFAD ;53> 6 75A?B AE;F;A@E ;@ F:7 BD7H;AGE E75F;A@ +:7D78AD7 ;F ;E 4 7 FF7D F A 7 H 3>G3F7 F :7 5A@ F D;4GF ;A@E A@ :;EFAD;53> 675A?B AE;F;A@E ; @ E75F;A@ I;F: EA?7 679D77 A8 7DDAD 4 3@6E ?B ADF3@ F >K7H7@I;F:3 ?G5: >A I7D H 3>G7 A8 34 A GF A@7 F 7@ F: A8 F:7 4 7@5 : ?3D= H 3>G7 F:7 M@3@5;3> E:A 5 = ;E EF;>> E;9@;M53@ F 8AD AGFBGF ;@ H 7 EF?7@ F 3@6 >34 AD N G5FG3F;A@E ;@ E:AD FDG@ '&$-+"' & @ F:;E B 3B 7D I 7 ;@ H 7 EF;93F7 7 ?B;D;53>>K F:7 7T75FE A8 3 M @3@5;3> E :A 5 = A@ F :7 !3B3@7E7 4GE;@7EE 5K5>7E GE;@9 3 H 3D;3@ F A 8 ) ?A 67> B DAB AE76 4 K ! 7D?3@@ 3@6 (G36D; @; +:;E ?A 6 7> 3>>A IE 8AD M @3@5;3> 8 D;5F;A@ 3@6 MD?EP M @3@5;@9 5 A@EFD3;@ F 7 JB >;5;F>K 7 EF;?3F7 F:7 B3D3?7F7DE 67F7D?;@;@9 8 AGD E:A 5 = BDA 5 7EE7E I ;F: ? 3J;? G? >;= 7 >;:A A 6 7EF;?3F;A@ 3@6 3EE7EE F:7 D7>3F;H 7 ;?B ADF3@57 A8 F:7 M@3@5;3> E :A 5 = F:3F 3T75FE M D?EP 4 AD DA I;@9 34;>;F K F A F:7 BDA 6 G5F;H;F K E:A 5 = 3@6 F:7 >7;EGD7 B D787D7@57 E :A 5 = +:7 !3B3@7E7 75A@A? K ; E E 3;6 F A : 3 H 7 4 77@ ; @ H A>H 7 6 ; @ D AG9:>K MH 7 D 757EE;A@ E3@6 3 87I M @3@5;3> 6 ;EFD7EE7E A H 7 D F :7 B 7 D;A 6 F:7 D3B;6 K 7@ 3BBD75;3 F;A@ 38F7D F :7 '>3L3 55AD6 F:7 5A>>3BE7 A8 3@ O3EE7F B D;57 4G44>7P ;@ F:7 73D>K E F: 7 E;3@ M@3@5;3> 5D;E;E ;@ F:7 5A>>3BE7 A8 O + 4 G44>7P ;@ F:7 7 3D>K E E7H 7 D7 43 6>A3@ BDA4>7?E 4 K 6A?7EF;5 43@=E ; @ F:7 >3F7 E 3@6 F:7 73D>K E 3@6 F :7 ?AEF D 757@ F M @3 @5;3> 5 D;E;E ;@ +:7 7?B;D;53> 3@3>KE7E E:A I F:3F E A?7 6;EFGD43@57E A@ MD?EP M @3@5 ;3> 5 A@6;F;A@E ;@NG7@57 E;9@;M53@ F >K AGFBGF ;@ H 7 EF?7@ F 3@6 > 34 AD NG5FG3F;A@E A H 7 D ?AE FA8F:7 !3B3@7E7 4GE;@7EE 5K5>7E 3>F:AG9: AGFBGF ?A H 7 ?7@ F E 3D7 BD;?3D;>K 6 D;H 7 @ 4 K F:7 BD A 6 G5F;H;F K E:A 5 = 3@6 F:7 >7;EGD7 B D787D7@57 E:A 5 = EB 75;3>>K 3 F ;9: F 7D 5A@EFD3;@ F A@ MD? EP 4 ADDA I ;@9 : 3E E;9@;M53@ F 7T75FE A@ F:7 D 757EE;A@E ; @ 38F7D F :7 5A>>3BE7 A8 3@ O3EE7F BD;57 4G44>7P ;@ I;F: 3@ 38F7D?3F: A8 F :7 E;3@ M@3@5;3> 5D;E;E 3@6 6GD;@9 I ;F: 6 A?7EF;5 436>A3@ BDA4>7?E A@E;67D34>7 B3DFE A8 > A@9 D G@ H 3D;3F;A@E ;@ F:AE7 H 3D;34>7E 3D7 E F;>> 355 AG@ F 76 8AD 4 K F:7 >7;EGD7 B D787D7@57 E :A 5 = I:;5 : ;E ;@ F7@676 F A 4 7 3 BDA J K 8 AD AF:7D 8 D;5 F;A@E 3@6 D;9;6;F K ;DD7>7H 3@ F 8 AD MD?EP M@3@5;3> 5 A@6;F;A@E +:;E EG997EFE F:3F F :7D7 7J;EF EA?7 ;?B ADF3@ F EAGD57E A8 6;EFADF;A@ ;@ F:7 !3B3@7E7 >34 AD ?3D= 7 F I:;5 : 3D7 @ AF 7JB>;5;F> K ?A 6 7>76 ; @ F:;E B3B 7 D GFGD7 D 7E73D5 : E:AG>6 4 7 8 GDF:7D 67H 7>AB 7 6 ; @ F:;E 6 ;?7@E;A@ ,'-* +:7 EAGD57E A8 63F3 GE76 ;@ F:;E B3B 7 D 3D7 >;EF76 4 7>A I &GFBGF O'P A@EG?BF;A@ O'D;H 3F7 A@EG?BF;A@P @ H 7 EF?7@ F O)7E;67@ F;3> @ H 7 EF?7@ F P O%A@)7E;67@ F;3> @ H 7 EF?7@ F P O'D;H 3F7 @ H 7 @ F ADKP A H 7 D@?7@ F EB 7@6;@9 O A H 7 D@?7@ F A@EG?BF;A@P O 'G4>;5 @ H 7EF?7@ FP O 'G4>;5 @ H 7 @ F ADKP 8DA? 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Table 1: Business Cycle Properties Variables Standard Deviation (%) Correlation with Output Data SimulationData Simulation Output Consumption Investment Hours Worked Government Spending 1.34 0.93 5.43 1.05 1.99 1.61 1.22 5.81 1.95 1.81 1 0.80 0.85 0.75 -0.01 1 0.85 0.89 0.72 0.01 -0.15 -0.10 -0.05 0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 Figure 1: Japanese Business Cycles Output Consumption Investment Labor 90 Table 2: Structural Parameter Values Subjective Discount Factor E Weight on Leisure K Depreciation Rate G Capital Share T Tax Advantage W Borrowing Ability Parameter [ Equity Payout Cost Parameter N Govt.-Output Ratio y g 0.974 2.500 0.022 0.360 0.397 0.237 0.246 0.228 Table 3: Maxmum Likelihood Estimates Shocks AR(1) Coefficient: U S.D. of Innovations: V Productivity z Leisure Preference K Government Spending g Financial [ 0.9944 0.9990 0.6108 0.9861 0.0087 0.0200 0.0170 0.0248 91 Table 4: Variance Decompositions (%) Horizons 2Q 8Q 32Q 200Q2Q 8Q 32Q 200Q Output Consumption Productivity 40.9 44.2 44.7 32.0 45.8 45.7 44.6 31.5 Leisure Preference 42.0 46.4 52.1 67.2 53.5 53.1 54.2 68.2 Govt. Spending 0.02 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.53 0.3 0.0 0.0 Financial 17.1 9.4 3.2 0.8 0.15 0.9 1.1 0.3 Investment Hours Worked Productivity 27.0 36.2 41.4 34.1 0.6 0.3 1.0 2.7 Leisure Preference 24.4 34.2 43.8 57.9 71.4 84.4 93.7 96.0 Govt. Spending 7.1 3.1 1.5 0.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 Financial 41.6 26.5 13.3 7.3 27.9 15.2 5.3 1.3 Table 5: Sensitivity Analysis I: ML Estimates N 0.025 0.1 0 0.246 0.5 SD(%) 8.71 3.79 2 2.16 1.25 U V U V U V U V z 0.9938 0.0087 0.9935 0.0087 0 0.9944 0.0087 0.9949 0.0088 K 0.9990 0.0221 0.9990 0.0211 0 0.9990 0.0200 0.9990 0.0192 g 0.5571 0.0170 0.5975 0.0170 0 0.6108 0.0170 0.6127 0.0170 [ 0.9906 0.0272 0.9869 0.0218 0 0.9861 0.0248 0.9689 0.271 Note: The benchmark case is shown by bold letters. SD(%) means the standard deviation of t t y d , equity payouts normalized by output, in percentage. [ K , , , g z signify the productivity, leisure preference, government spending, financial shock, respectively. U , V is the AR(1) coefficient and standard deviation of disturbance. 92 Table 6: Sensitivity Analysis II: Variance Decompositions (%) N 0.025 0 0.246 0.5 Horizons 2Q 32Q 2Q 32Q 2Q 32Q Output z 39.8 40.5 4 40.9 44.7 42.1 46.7 K 49.4 58.1 4 42.0 52.1 39.0 48.5 g 0.0 0.0 0 0.02 0.0 0.0 0.0 [ 10.8 1.5 1 17.1 3.2 18.9 4.8 Investment z 32.9 40.4 2 27.0 41.4 25.6 40.2 K 36.4 52.2 2 24.4 43.8 21.2 37.9 g 5.3 1.1 7 7.1 1.5 7.1 1.7 [ 25.4 6.3 4 41.6 13.3 46.1 20.2 Hours Worked z 0.3 0.8 0 0.6 1.0 0.1 1.3 K 82.1 96.6 7 71.4 93.7 67.9 90.8 g 0.1 0.0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 [ 17.8 2.5 2 27.9 5.3 31.5 7.8 Note: The benchmark case is shown by bold letters. ,, , z g K and [ signify the productivity, leisure preference, government spending, financial shock, respectively. 93 -10.0 -7.5 -5.0 -2.5 0.0 2.5 5.0 7.5 10.0 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 Figure 2: Shocks (% deviation from the trend) Productivity Leisure Preference Govt. Financial -0.12 -0.1 -0.08 -0.06 -0.04 -0.02 0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.00 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.10 0.12 0.14 0.16 0.18 0.20 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 Figure 3: Multiplier for Firms' Borrowing Comstraint and Financial Flows Multiplier for Borrowing Constraint, left axis Equity Payout (Dividend), left axis Debt Repurchase, right axis 94 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 Figure 4: Historical Decomposition of Output Productivity Leisure Govt Financial Output Deviation (%) -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 Figure 5: Historical Decomposition of Investment Productivity Leisure Govt Financial Investment Deviation (%) 95 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 Figure 6: Historical Decomposition of Labor Productivity Leisure Govt Financial Labor Deviation (%) -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 Figure 7: Historical Decomposition of Consumption Productivity Leisure Govt Financial Consumption Deviation (%) 96 Acknowledgements I would like to express my deepest gratitude to Professor Selahattin Imrohoroglu for his invaluable guidance and instruction through my studies at USC and the Bank of Japan (BOJ). I also would like to express my cordial gratitude to Professor Robert Dekle and Professor Douglas H. Joines for their support and advice at USC. I thank Ichiro Muto and Nao Sudo for their support, advice and encouragements at BOJ. As for the first essay, I am grateful to Kiyohiko G. Nishimura, Eiji Maeda, Takatoshi Ito, Shinichi Fukuda, Tsutomu Watanabe, Kosuke Aoki, Kaoru Hosono, Daisuke Miyakawa, Toshitaka Sekine, Koichiro Kamada, Hibiki Ichiue, Kozo Ueda, Naoko Hara, Daisuke Ikeda, and seminar participants at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, BIS-BSP 6th Annual Workshop of the Asian Research Networks, 2012 Summer Workshop on Economic Theory at Kushiro Public University, the International Conference ‘Frontier in Macroeconometrics’ at Hitotsubashi University, Japan Center for Economic Research, and the Bank of Japan, for their advice and comments.
Abstract (if available)
Abstract
This dissertation consists of two essays on major macroeconomic shocks in the Japanese economy: demographic shocks in a long run trend and financial shocks in short run fluctuations. In the first essay, I explore quantitatively the macroeconomic impact of population aging on economic growth and fiscal variables in recent and future years. To this end, I construct a full-fledged overlapping generations (OG) model. The model replicates successfully the actual paths of macroeconomic variables from the 1980s to the 2000s. I find that Japan's population aging as a whole adversely affects GNP growth by dampening factor inputs. It also negatively impacts on GNP per capita and fiscal variables, especially in the future, mainly due to the decline in the fraction of the population of working-age. For these findings, fertility rate decline plays a dominant role as it reduces both labor force and saver populations. The effects of increased longevity on GNP growth are expansionary, but relatively small. My simulations predict that the adverse effects will expand during the next few decades, although they are minimal in the 1990s because the positive effects of increased longevity seem to compensate sufficiently for the negative effects of fertility rate decline. In addition to closed economy simulations, I examine the macroeconomic consequences of population aging in a small open economy setting. In this case a decline in the domestic capital return encourages investment in foreign capital, mitigating the adverse effects of population aging on GNP. ❧ In the second essay, I investigate empirically the relative importance of financial shocks and frictions for Japan's business cycles over the period 1980.1Q to 2009.4Q. To this end, I employ a variant of RBC model that incorporates explicitly firms' financing constraint. This model exhibits reasonably good performance in reproducing Japan's business cycle properties. I find that short run fluctuations in output, investment, and labor are significantly influenced by a 'financial shock' on firms' borrowing constraint. Especially, a negative shock on firms' financing has significant effects on the recessions in 1994 after the collapse of an asset price bubble, in 1999 with an aftermath of the Asian financial crisis, and during 2002-04 when domestic banks had severe bad-loan problems. Considerable parts of medium and long run variations in those variables are still explained by the leisure preference shock which is intended to capture labor fluctuations induced by other frictions and rigidity than firms' financial conditions. This result suggests that, as is pointed out by a few previous studies, there exist other important sources of distortion in the Japanese labor market.
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University of Southern California Dissertations and Theses
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Creator
Oda, Takemasa
(author)
Core Title
Two essays on major macroeconomic shocks in the Japanese economy: demographic shocks and financial shocks
School
College of Letters, Arts and Sciences
Degree
Doctor of Philosophy
Degree Program
Economics
Publication Date
11/05/2013
Defense Date
10/07/2013
Publisher
University of Southern California
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University of Southern California. Libraries
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Tag
business cycles,capital flow,financial friction,Japan,OAI-PMH Harvest,overlapping generations model,population aging
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English
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Advisor
Imrohoroglu, Selahattin (
committee chair
), Dekle, Robert (
committee member
), Joines, Douglas H. (
committee member
)
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take.in.la@gmail.com,takemasa.oda@boj.or.jp
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Tags
business cycles
capital flow
financial friction
overlapping generations model
population aging