University of Southern California Dissertations and Theses

Dependence on foreign labor, quality of education and unemployment in the GCC countries: In search of solutions

(USC Thesis Other)

Dependence on foreign labor, quality of education and unemployment in the GCC countries: In search of solutions

PDF

Download a page range

Download transcript

Copy asset link

Request this asset

Transcript (if available)

Content DEPENDENCE ON FOREIGN LABOR, QUALITY OF EDUCATION AND UNEMPLOYMENT IN THE GCC COUNTRIES: IN SEARCH OF SOLUTIONS Copyright 2003 by Hatem A. Samman A Dissertation Presented to the FACULTY OF THE GRADUATE SCHOOL UNIVERSITY OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY POLITICAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC POLICY December 2003 Hatem A. Samman Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. UMI Number: 3133333 INFORMATION TO USERS The quality of this reproduction is dependent upon the quality of the copy submitted. Broken or indistinct print, colored or poor quality illustrations and photographs, print bleed-through, substandard margins, and improper alignment can adversely affect reproduction. In the unlikely event that the author did not send a complete manuscript and there are missing pages, these will be noted. Also, if unauthorized copyright material had to be removed, a note will indicate the deletion. ® UMI UMI Microform 3133333 Copyright 2004 by ProQuest Information and Learning Company. All rights reserved. This microform edition is protected against unauthorized copying under Title 17, United States Code. ProQuest Information and Learning Company 300 North Zeeb Road P.O. Box 1346 Ann Arbor, Ml 48106-1346 Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. UNIVERSITY OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THE GRADUATE SCHOOL UNIVERSITY PARK LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA 90089-1695 This dissertation, written by under the direction o f h 1£ dissertation committee, and a pproved by all its members, has been presented to and accepted by the D irector o f G raduate and Professional Program s, in p a rtia l fulfillm ent o f the requirements f o r the degree o f DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY D irector D ate lola-HIAddS. D issertation Committee f ' — Chair Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ii The author wishes to express sincere appreciation to Professors Nugent and Brand for their assistance in the preparation of this manuscript. In addition, special thanks to my friends and colleagues whose suggestions and comments were helpful during the early writing phase of this undertaking. Thanks also to my mother, my father and my wife for their continued support. Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. TABLE OF CONTENTS PAGE List of Tables................................................................................................... v List of Figures................................................................................................ vii Chapter I: INTRODUCTION...........................................................................1 Chapter II: UNEMPLOYMENT AND THE QUALITY OF EDUCATION IN THE GCC COUNTRIES.................................. 8 Motivation..................................................................................................8 The Status of Education............................................................................ 11 Literacy................................................................................................ 12 Pre-School Education........................................................................... 13 Enrolment in Formal Education........................................................... 16 Expenditure on Higher Education........................................................20 The Quality of General Education............................................................23 School Context......................................................................................25 Teachers................................................................................................30 Classrooms............................................................................................35 The Quality of Higher Education...........................................................44 Summary...............................................................................................49 Chapter III: A SURVEY STUDY OF SAUDI ARABIA.................................. 52 Motivation..................................................................................................52 Review of The Relevant Literature............................................................53 Contribution of This Study.........................................................................57 Assumptions...............................................................................................59 Scope of Research......................................................................................60 Limitations.................................................................................................61 Survey Particulars......................................................................................62 The Population...........................................................................................62 The Sample................................................................................................62 Research Questions....................................................................................63 Research Instruments.................................................................................66 Data Analysis Methodology.......................................................................68 Descriptive Analysis—Students.................................................................69 Demographics................................................................................69 Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. Gender and Field of Major..............................................................69 Province of Residence....................................................................71 English Proficiency.........................................................................72 Summary of Survey Results............................................................73 Descriptive Analysis—Private Sector.........................................................79 Employees.......................................................................................79 Managers.........................................................................................84 Firms...............................................................................................86 Summary of Descriptive Analysis................................................................87 Inferential Analysis.....................................................................................90 Correlation Results—Students...........................................................90 Test Results..................................................................................... 118 Managers and Employees................................................................ 118 Managers and Senior Students......................................................... 121 Summary of Inferential Analysis.....................................................123 CONCLUSION............................................................................................ 124 Chapter IV: THE WELFARE EFFECTS OF QUOTA VS. TAXES ON FOREIGN LABOR......................................................................... 127 Introduction..............................................................................................127 The Model ......................................................................................131 The Firm...................................................................................................131 The Household......................................................................................... 132 The Government...................................................................................... 134 Summary..................................................................................................138 Variations on the Model-Part A................................................................ 141 Variations on the Model-Part B................................................................ 144 Chapter V: CHALLENGES & RECOMMENDATIONS......................................... 146 Challenges............................................................................................... 146 Recommendations.................................................................................. 151 Future Research......................................................................................159 Concluding Remarks............................................................................... 160 Bibliography..............................................................................................................162 Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. LIST OF TABLES v Number Page 1 . Foreign Labor Force as a Percent of Total Labor................................. 3 2. Reasons for Hiring Non-Saudis............................................................ 4 3. Full Time Teachers by Nationality, Type & Level of Education........ 34 4. Curriculum Structure at the Primary Level........................................38 5. Curriculum Structure at the Intermediate Level.................................39 6. Student Gender & Field of Major.......................................................70 7. Preliminary Survey Results by Gender.............................................. 75 8. Preliminary Survey Results by Major & Gender............................... 76 9. Profile of Private Sector Companies Surveyed...................................88 10. Fields of Major Demanded by the Private Sector............................... 88 11. Correlation Results—All Students......................................................91 12. Correlation Results—Male Students (Public Schools)....................... 92 13. Correlation Results—Female Students...............................................93 14. Correlation Results—Male Science Students......................................94 15. Correlation Results—Male Literature Students...................................95 16. Correlation Results—Female Private School Students..................... 96 17. Correlation Results—Female Public School Students...................... 97 18. Correlation Results—Female Science Students (Private Schools)..... 98 19. Correlation Results—Female Science Students (Public Schools)....... 99 20. Correlation Results—Female Literature Students (Private Schools).. 100 21. Correlation Results—Female Literature Students (Public Schools)... 101 22. Correlation Results—Male Science Students (Yes Q7).....................102 23. Correlation Results—Male Science Students (No Q7)....................103 24. Statistical Test Results of The Survey—All Students...................... 117 25. Statistical Test Results—S&T and H&SS Students.........................117 26. Statistical Test Results—S&T Students..........................................117 Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. vi LIST OF TABLES (Continued) Number Page 27. Statistical Test Results—Knowledge of Market Demand...................... 118 28. Statistical Test Results—Managers & Employees.................................. 119 29. Statistical Test Results—Managers & Senior Students............................122 30. Various Scenarios of Tax & Quota Imposition....................................... 136 31. Various Scenarios of Tax & Quota Imposition-Variation A....................143 32. Remittances as Percent of Total Imports................................................. 147 33. Labor Force Participation & Population Growth.....................................149 Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. v ii LIST OF FIGURES Number Page 1 . Illiteracy Rate in the GCC Countries.................................................13 2. Private Enrolment as a Percent of Total Enrolment........................... 16 3. Primary Enrolment Ratio...................................................................17 4. Secondary Enrolment Ratio............................................................... 17 5. Tertiary Enrolment Ratio...................................................................18 6. Primary and Secondary School Enrolment by Gender.......................18 7. Number of Higher Education Students per 100,000 Inhabitants 19 8. Total Public Spending on Education (% GNP)..................................21 9. Total Expenditure on Education as a percent of GDP....................... 21 10. Tertiary Expenditure per Student (% of GNP per Capita).................22 11. Public Expenditure on Education as a percentage of GNI................. 23 12. School Quality Indicators & Their Relationship to Student Learning..25 13. Repetition Rate by Grade in Primary by Country............................... 30 14. Percent Ratio of Expatriates of Total University Staff Members 33 15. Percentage of Saudi vs. Non-Saudi Teachers in General Education... 33 16. Percentage of Science Graduates in Higher Education...................... 46 17. First Degree University Graduates and S&T Graduates per 100,000 Inhabitants........................................................................47 18. Student/StafFRatio in Higher Education Selected Regions.................47 19. Student/StafFRatio in Higher Education of GCC Countries................ 48 20. Sources of Job Information for Saudi University Students................... 79 21. Saudi Male Employees—Sample Survey.............................................80 22. Non-Saudi Male Employees—Sample Survey..................................... 81 23. Sources of Job Attainment for Employees............................................82 24. Saudi Female Employees’ Profile.........................................................83 25. Saudi & Expatriate Managers’ Profile..................................................85 26. National & Expatriate Labor Market................................................... 139 Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. ABSTRACT viii The focus of this thesis is on the quality of education in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries (Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates) and the problem of unemployment. Given the non-sustainability of increased public jobs, the GCC governments have looked to the private sector to alleviate the increasing problem of unemployment among nationals. However, because of the lower skills of nationals compared to their foreign counterparts, the private sector has not been willing to dispense with foreign laborers. This thesis contends that the main cause for the lower skill among nationals is a poor quality of education. This is ascertained through the analysis of the available data for the GCC countries and a survey case study for the country of Saudi Arabia. The results will show that students found factors of school quality as ineffective in terms of attaining the required score to enter their first choice of major. In addition, survey results for managers and employees in the private sector as well as managers and senior university students show that there are major obstacles to employment, which are inherent in the educational system for the Saudi case. Given a rent-seeking setting, which is characteristic of the GCC labor market economies, the unemployment problem can be addressed in the short-term through taxes on foreign laborers, but not the imposition of quota as governments have unsuccessfully attempted in the past. This short-term solution is presented in terms of a General Equilibrium Model that compares the effect of quota vs. tax on social Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. welfare. In addition, long-term solutions are also discussed in the course of this paper. The outsourcing of education and investments in Qualified Industrialized Zones (QIZ) are discussed as possible examples of long-term solutions for the low quality of skill among national laborers. Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. 1 Chapter I INTRODUCTION The oil fortunes of the Arabian peninsula helped catapult six of its oil-rich states, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates- collectively known as the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, from barren lands with few natural and human resources to investment hubs of the Middle East. This wealth, which resulted in the creation of welfare-state economies, helped spur an unprecedented growth in population, opened the gates for migrant workers in huge numbers and initiated a series of development plans intended to invest the oil returns in creating economies less dependent on the outside world and more dependent on domestic capabilities. Yet, despite three decades of development efforts, continued dependency on foreign labor indicates that economic development has been limited. Signs of economic difficulty began in the early 1990s with increasing unemployment among nationals. It is the purpose of this study to address one of the major problems currently facing the Gulf countries, i.e., the increasing problem of national unemployment, especially among the youth population. We ask the following questions in connection with the unemployment problem. 1. Is there a dearth of analytical and technical skill among national laborers? 2. What are the causes for the lack of skilled labor? Is it the system of education, misguided public policy, or both? Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. 2 3. Does the problem lie in higher or pre-tertiary levels of education, or both? 4. Are there short and long-term solutions to the unemployment problem? 5. What can policy makers do to improve upon the system of education in the GCC countries? We begin with Table 1 below to show the GCC countries’ heavy dependence on foreign labor, particularly in the private sector1 . While at the beginning of the oil boom in 1975 one might have supposed this dependence to be temporary until nationals could be trained to take the places of foreign workers, the dependence has not been temporary. As the oil boom continued and the service sector expanded, the dependence on foreign labor increased. Indeed, as recently as 1997 the dependence on foreign labor was higher than it was in 1975 in all countries except possibly Oman in which it declined only slightly. The latest figures for 2001 and 2002 continue to show the high reliance on foreign laborers, reaching as high as 90 percent in the United Arab Emirates. Given that government jobs are largely reserved for nationals, it is easy to understand why unofficial estimates (United States Department of State 1999) suggest the dependence on foreign workers in the private sector services to be over 90 percent in virtually all countries of the GCC. According to a recent publication by the Saudi American Bank and the Central Bank of Oman, unemployment in Saudi Arabia (among males) and in Oman 1 Qatar and Oman do not have 2001/02 official figures, however, it was estimated that in mid-2001 foreign workers in Qatar represented 80% o f the population o f 769,152. For the same year, Oman’s expatriates comprised about 26% o f the population o f 2.4 million and 495,000 o f them were employed in the private sector. About 80% o f Oman’s private sector labor is foreign (Human Rights Watch 2003). Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. 3 was estimated at 11.9% in 1999.2 For Kuwait, the unemployment rate in April of 2000 represented 5% of the total Kuwaiti labor force. Table 1 Foreign Labor Force as a Percent of Total Labor Country 1975 1980 1985 1990 1997 2001/02* Bahrain 80.3 59.3 67.7 75.0 n.a. 64.0 Kuwait 69.8 78.1 81.1 82.0 83.6 80.0 O m an 45.5 40.0 56.6 75.4 32.2 n.a. Qatar 85.5 81.6 75.5 81.0 n.a. n.a. Saudi Arabia 25.2 58.3 64.2 78.6 65.5 63.2* UAE 81.4 89.7 87.6 85.5 90.0 90.0* Source: Figures through 1990 are from Gameldin (1994). More recent figures are from Central Bank of Kuwait, and Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency (SAMA) and 1999 Country Reports c m Economic Policy and Trade Practices, Bureau of Economic and Business Affairs, U.S. Department of State. The 2001/02 figures are from Human Rights Watch (HRW) 2003. ‘Represent 2002 figures: the figure for Saudi Arabia was calculated from HRW (2003) & Bourland (2002). Overall, it is estimated that structural unemployment in the GCC represents about 6.5% of the foreign labor force, 5% of total manpower and 15% of the national labor force (Girgis 2002).3 In addition, the number of entrants into the GCC labor market has been growing rapidly over the past decade and is expected to continue given the high fertility rates in the GCC region. In 1999, the number of new national jobs seekers in Kuwait was estimated at 15,000 rising to 17,000 in 2002 and expected to be at around 23,500 by 2010. Similarly for Oman, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia the 1999 numbers are 18,000,5,000 and 165,000 respectively (Ibid). 2 These figures are higher for the female labor force; for example, Bourland estimates Saudi female unemployment to be at 15.8%. See Bourland (2002) and Girgis (2002). 3 There are no recent unemployment figures for Bahrain or Qatar. Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. 4 Table 2 below lists the reasons why private-sector firms in Saudi Arabia tend to favor non-Saudi workers.4 ’5 The major reasons for not hiring nationals revolve mainly around their lack of interest in jobs, low skills and qualifications and their higher wage demands compared to their foreign counterparts. I contend that the first three factors are due, in large part, to a low quality of education, particularly at the pre-tertiary level, resulting in a lower overall skill among nationals compared to foreign laborers. Table 2 Reasons for Hiring Non-Saudis REASON FOR HIRING NON-SAUDIS PERCENTAGE Saudis are not available 14.2 Available Saudis are not qualified 25.4 Non-Saudis require lower wages 47.4 Non-Saudis are more experienced/Skilled 34.5 Saudis are not interested in these jobs 48.3 Lack of employment agencies 3.4 Saudis insist on management positions 0.4 Saudis are not committed to work 1.3 Other 3.9 Source: Ministry of Planning, Private Establishment Survey, Table 3.16,1999. (Cited in Girgis 2002) In addition, the governments’ continued hiring of nationals at subsidized wages resulted in a distorted mix of skills and wages, and encouraged waves of students to aim for public and, largely, non-technical jobs at the expense of the more demanding skill-type jobs in the private sector. In addition, other political, 4 232 private establishments were surveyed. 5 Similar reasons exist for other GCC countries. Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. 5 administrative and cultural factors such as the structure of school curricula, centrality of the decision making process and the lack of information and cooperation between the private and public institutions have all contributed to a mismatch between the jobs demanded by the private sector and those supplied by the academic institutions, as well as the decline in the overall labor productivity of nationals, thus further increasing the dependence on foreign labor. The remainder of this thesis is organized as follows. Chapter II analyzes the quality of education in the Gulf states. Through the analysis of available data, it will be shown that the GCC countries score lower vis-a-vis other developed and, surprisingly, developing countries in terms of quality of education indicators. Specific examples are provided for the case of Saudi Arabia, not only because of my work experience in the kingdom where I had the opportunity to ascertain the qualifications of young Saudis by working side by side with them and conducting interviews for applicants to new job openings, but also because I had first hand experience with the obstacles that parents and students alike face in the latter’s pursuit of their academic aspirations. Chapter III analyzes the available data, provides examples and presents a survey study for Saudi university students, private sector managers and workers. In addition, it documents that obstacles to education, coupled with low quality, have created a sizable employment gap between what private firms demand in terms of labor skill, and what academic institutions—mainly universities—supply. This gap Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. 6 is being filled by expatriate labor that possesses these demanded skills, thus contributing to the unemployment among nationals. To help reduce the unemployment problem in the short-run6 , the GCC governments have two main policy instruments. They can impose a quota on foreign labor under strict punishment for violators7 , or, they can impose a tax on firms for hiring expatriates. Chapter IV shows that in a rent-seeking economy, which is characteristic of GCC countries, and under certain assumptions, the latter policy is more favorable. Chapter V concludes with recommendations for reducing the unemployment problem and improving the quality of education. In particular, the GCC countries need to adopt short and long-term solutions to reach these recommended goals. The former can be achieved via a tax policy that reduces the wage differential between national and expatriate laborers and provides an incentive for firms to hire nationals of an equivalent skill level. Another recommendation is to reduce the size of government and crack down on rent-seeking bureaucrats. In addition, short-run solutions may include investments in industries with special trade advantages— especially those with special access to foreign markets—such as Jordan’s Qualified Industrial Zones (QIZs) and Egypt’s Export Processes Zones (EPZs), where entrepreneurs and workers from investing countries can work and gain experience in the countiy where these industries are located. These short-run solutions must be 6 Short-term solutions reflect political necessity. 7 While the employment cost for foreign labor has increased over the past several years, it has mainly affected households with lower income elasticity. Firms remain mostly unaffected and nationalization laws are not strictly enforced. Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. supported by long-term plans, which include creating similar industries at home in order to generate more exports and compete with other more developed countries. This undertaking must be examined in terms of regional integration, the World Trade Organization membership and lessons learned from other countries. In addition, and more importantly, an overhaul of the educational system is needed in order to improve upon the quality of education in the GCC countries and produce the required skill level for nationals. Such reforms must treat schools as institutions, empower their faculties and communities, and avoid the centrality of decision making. Additional solutions include the outsourcing of higher education through agreements with internationally renowned institutions to invest in the Gulf region. Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. 8 Chapter II UNEMPLOYMENT & THE QUALITY OF EDUCATION IN THE GCC COUNTRIES Motivation One of the major economic puzzles of the Gulf Cooperation Council countries is the increasing unemployment among their youth at a time when foreign labor occupies a large percentage of private sector jobs. Most studies and writings since the beginning of this phenomenon in the early 1990’s have attributed it to the high reservation wages demanded by national workers and the absence of a Westem- style work ethic vis-a-vis their expatriate competition.8 While cost minimizing continues to remain high on the agenda of private sector companies in order to remain competitive in an increasingly global economy, the quality of human capital seems to be gaining an equal or higher rating. It is the purpose of this chapter to illustrate how the problems facing the educational system affect the quality of human capital and the effect of this on the unemployment problem in the GCC countries. Among the issues discussed are the low quality of education compounded by a lack of focus on science and technology (S&T)9 that are viewed by the literature as important in improving the quality of labor. Recently many GCC nationals have been accepting jobs in the private sector that do not provide them with the high benefits traditionally provided by their 8 See for example Looney (1994) and Kronemer (1997). 9 Science and Technology includes Engineering, Medicine, Nursing, Mathematics, Biology, Chemistry, Physics, Geology, Computer Science, Pharmacy and Agriculture. Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. 9 governments. Their attitude towards work has also been improving, not only because jobs are harder to find in the public sector, but also because most of the governments in the region have imposed a hiring freeze for many years to come leaving the private sector as the main opportunity for job seekers. Currently, it is not surprising to find young nationals driving taxicabs and working in department stores or super markets—jobs that were formerly held primarily by Asian workers. Increasingly, private companies are focused on an applicant’s skill rather than his wage. Yet, while there have been increasing pressures on national workers to lower their reservation wage, their skill levels seem to have stagnated in a world that has been demanding higher levels of technical and analytical proficiency. This is why— as we will see from the survey results in chapter III—private companies seem unwilling to completely dispense with their foreign work force even as nationalization programs are repeatedly stressed through government policy proclamations and plans. Given the social and economic structure of the GCC countries in the 1970’s and 1980’s and the role of governments as major employer, there was no incentive on the part of students to major in science and technology fields. However, the changes in technology that accompanied the decline in public employment and the focus on the nationalization of private sector jobs demanded a more skilled labor force that was increasingly in short supply. As the gap between the demand and Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. 10 supply for skilled labor continued to widen private enterprises continued to hire expatriates1 0 . In order to remedy this problem, a more serious look must be taken at the old education methods characteristic of GCC countries. Attention must be focused on factors that contribute to student learning such as the quality of teachers, classrooms, and school context. In addition, efforts should be geared towards developing the appropriate channels and institutions that engender interaction and communication between the business and academic communities. As we will see in chapter HI, survey results for students and private sector managers will serve to show that a gap exists between the level of skill demanded by the private sector and that supplied by Saudi academic institutions. Thus, while there is general reference to the countries of the gulf region, specific attention is paid to the kingdom of Saudi Arabia, which represents the largest economy, not only among the GCC states, but also in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region as a whole.1 1 1 0 For giant companies like SAUDI-ARAMCO, PETROM1N, SABIC and other GCC companies such as Qatar Petroleum (QGPC) and Kuwait Oil Company (KOC), which are mostly state-owned, it has been hard for young nationals to find jobs, not only because these companies demand highly skilled labor, but also because they require many years o f experience which young job seekers do not possess. It is interesting to note that with the exception o f QGPC there are no job advertisements on any o f the websites o f these major companies. However, despite this exception, most o f the jobs advertised for in QGPC require between 8-10 years o f experience. 1 1 The MENA region refers to the Arab countries. Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. The Status of Education 11 It is widely acknowledged that schooling affects the quality of the labor force, which in turn advances the economic development and growth of nations.1 2 Microeconomic data show that the GCC countries have made much progress in education since the launching of their 5-year development plans over thirty years ago. Yet, macroeconomic data show that such progress has not been translated into non-oil economic growth. In fact, the overall economy has remained stagnant for much of the last two decades of the 20th century for several of the GCC countries, with unemployment rising among their nationals. Partly the lack of economic productivity is due to the limited participation of women in the work force whereby government expenditures on women’s education are not translated into a productive labor force, as most university female graduates are not able to find jobs1 3 . A more direct cause is that GCC governments—through state-led growth—have distorted the market for educated labor by not paying workers their productivity equivalent wage.1 4 ,1 5 On closer examination one finds that the status of education in the Gulf countries—judged by quality indicators and traditional criteria—is a cause for concern compared to elsewhere in the world. In addition, we will see that, given the 1 2 See, for example, M ankiw, Romer and W eil (1992). 1 3 This suggests that government investment on women’s education is not getting its expected return and can, therefore, be channeled towards increasing the overall economic productivity. For example, expenditure on lower level education for women may achieve higher returns in terms o f reducing the fertility and mortality rates, which positively affects economic productivity. See Easterlin (1996) and Richards & Waterbury (1997). 1 4 See, for example, Pritchett (1999). 1 5 In addition, foreign labor remittance contributes negatively to economic growth. We w ill expand on this in chapter V. Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. 12 political and economic development of these countries, math and sciences have been neglected creating a skill gap in the GCC labor markets. Literacy There has been great progress in fighting illiteracy in the GCC countries since the 1970’s. At the end of 1994 it was estimated that 75 percent of the GCC population (14.4 million) were literate1 6 . This includes the 10 percent who had tertiary education (diplomas or degrees), the 47 percent who had primary or secondary education; and the 18 percent who had no formal education but could read and write. In all six countries, males are generally more educated than females, with an estimated literacy rate of 77 percent for the former and 49 percent for the latter (Gulf Marketing Review, 1995). For the Saudi case, there is a 19% illiteracy rate among adult Saudi males compared to 7% in Venezuela, 10% in Malaysia and 1% in South Korea (EIU Risk Service, August 2000). While some of these figures are encouraging, a projection of rates for 2015 (see Figure 1) shows that GCC states will continue to have high levels of illiteracy compared to such countries as Malaysia, Korea and Singapore. Also troubling is that the illiteracy rate will continue to be higher for women. 1 6 This refers to the national population aged 10 years or older. Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. 13 Figure 1 Illiteracy Rate in the GCC 1970/2015 j □ Total Illiteracy 4 Rato BMato Illiteracy Rato □Fem ale Illiteracy Rato Source: UNESCO Institute o f Statistics—July 2002 Assessment Pre-School Education The importance of early childhood development has been documented by increasing scientific evidence to have important effects in the shaping of minds. McCain & Mustard (1999) show that the pre-school experience is associated strongly with achievement in formal schooling. According to the U.K. Child Health and Education Study, children who attended any form of organized pre-school program at the age of 3-4 years showed improved cognitive development and academic achievement compared to those children who did not. This gain was underscored for more disadvantaged children. Other studies and programs in Sweden and the United States such as the ‘Swedish Longitudinal Study’ and the ‘Head Start’ program, respectively, show that school performance is highest among those who attended early development programs before the age of one and those whose parents were involved as well. Similar conclusions have also been reached for Canada’s Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. 14 ‘Rightstart’ program and a U.S. early math enrichment program for pre-school children. These studies have shown that gains are even more noticeable among children from low-income neighborhoods and that they have longer lasting effects for children’s academic performance. In France as well reports indicate that better high school achievement is reached by those children who attended pre-school programs longer. 1 7 Earlier studies have found that both an early entry and the years of experience of pre-school teachers contribute to later academic achievement (Caughy et al. 1994). Again, this result is more pronounced in low-income children, and there is overwhelming evidence to show that both early childhood care and parent 1 o influence are major contributing factors to any school success (Barnett 1995). In the GCC countries the focus on children lies mostly in the realm of private schools that are quite expensive for the majority of citizens. In Saudi Arabia, for example, the annual per student fees for KG-1 schools range anywhere from $2000- $70001 9 . One reason for such high fees is the absence of experienced pre-school teachers in these countries, which prompts preprimary schools to complement their national staff by hiring foreign, mostly Western, residents who demand higher wages pushing costs upwards.2 0 Figures show that in comparison to other countries, the 1 7 For a more detailed analysis o f the literature on pre-school education and school quality see the Education Quality Indicators Program (EQUIP). 1 8 Note that while these conclusions reflect studies performed in Western countries, they can be equally applicable to the Gulf region, especially since we are looking at development o f the educational system from a ‘Western’ perspective. To my knowledge, there has not been any significant research, similar in content, by Arab scholars pertaining to the Middle East region or the GCC countries. 1 9 This is a significant amount relative to GDP per capita estimated at around $8,200 in 2001. 2 0 It is important to point out that in countries like Saudi Arabia, pre-school teachers are, for the most part, non-professional educators—mainly Western women—who are sought out primarily for their Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. 15 GCC states had the highest private pre-primary enrolment throughout the last decade of the 20th century (see Figure 2). While the lower figures for developed countries may be representative of the higher level of development of the educational system and the higher overall level of parent education in Western countries like the United States, compared to other less developed nations,2 1 they also reflect the need for GCC government involvement in pre-primary education. That is, given the evidence on the importance of preschool education and the absence of an equal level of parental education among lower income families of the GCC states, compared to those in more advanced countries, it may be appropriate for the governments of the GCC region to provide financial aid so as to boost the overall educational system at an early stage2 2 . This intervention will provide preprimary education for the majority of citizens on a more equitable basis instead of reserving it for high-income families. It is important to mention at this juncture that part of the reason for the popularity of children’s private schools is the teaching of English. As we will see in the course of this paper, English has become a tool demanded by the private sector2 3 . Not only is it necessary for the transfer of knowledge from the expatriate population, but it has also become the language of business. As the service sector has continued to expand and as foreign investments have increased, English has become an integral language proficiency. Since the local laws do not allow work for single foreign women, most o f them are wives o f expatriate workers and, as such, have limited experience in education. 2 1 For example, parents in the United States and other advanced countries have been adopting new methods o f teaching such as home schooling. 2 2 This can be achieved, for example, by providing monetary assistance to low-income families to allow their children to attend pre-primary schools. 2 3 One o f the interesting aspects o f job recruitment is that frequent job ads in local newspapers, which specify that only nationals need apply, publish these ads in English. Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. part of any job description. Consequently, some parents have developed a keen interest in providing their children with the advantage that the English language provides. However, because private schools are out of reach for the majority of nationals and because it is not taught at later levels of education to the extent that is necessary, it is generally forgotten by students at the time of graduation when they are most needed. This will be further discussed in the course of the survey results of chapter IV. Figure 2 PRE-PRIMARY ENROLMENT AS PE RC E NT A G E OF TOTAL ENROLMENT FOR THE SCH O O L YEARS 1990/1991 AND 1999/2000 120.0 100.0 6 0 .0 4 0 .0 20.0 0.0 Source: UNESCO Institute for Statistics—October 2002. Enrolment In Formal Education For the GCC countries, data on enrolment in the three levels of education, primary, secondary and tertiary, show a quantitative increase in the number of Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. 17 students enrolled since the 1980s. With the exception of primary education, school enrolment trended upwards from 1980 to 1995 (Figures 3,4 & 5)2 4 Figure 3 Primary Enrolment Ratio (% gross) 110.00 105.00 100.00 95.00 90.00 85.00 80.00 1995 1985 1990 1980 ♦ GCC States - Industialized Countries — A— Developing countries Source: World Development Indicators 2000 & Human Development Report 2002 (UNESCO). Figure 4 Secondary Enrolment (% gross) 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 1980 1995 1985 1990 ♦ GCC Countries -B— Industriazlied Countries A — Developing Source: World Development Indicators 2000 & Arab Human Development Report 2002 (UNESCO). 2 4 The big decline in primary enrolment ratio in Figure 3 is due to the Gulf War and its political aftermath where many Arabs were expelled from the GCC countries. This was especially true for Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. Note that removing the data for Kuwait makes the GCC decline less steep. Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. 18 Figure 5 Tertiary Enrolment (% gross) 60.00 50.00 40.00 30.00 20.00 10.00 0.00 1980 1985 1990 1995 ♦--GCC Countries -HS— Industriazlied Countries Developing Source: World Development Indicators 2000 & Arab H uman Development Report 2002 (UNESCO). However, while the GCC states fared better compared to other developing countries, they came a distant second to the industrialized countries’ enrolment ratios. Furthermore, despite the expansion of education, including women’s, female enrolment is lower than that of males in the primary and secondary levels (Figure 6). Figure 6 Primary and Secondry School Enrolment by Gender (% gross) 600.00 500.00 400.00 300.00 200.00 100.00 P- P- Female Female 1980 1995 P-Male 1980 P-Male 1995 S- S- Female Female 1980 1995 S-Male 1980 S-Male 1995 DUAE ■ KSA □Qatar □Oman BKwait □Bahrain Source: World Development Indicators 2000 Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. 19 While there has been progress in terms of an increase in the percentage of female students in higher education for some GCC countries, Saudi Arabia and Oman score below some of the poorer nations, e.g., Lebanon and Syria. Additionally, it is important to point out that despite the increase in the percentage of female students in higher education, opportunities in the job market continue to be discouraging at best for the women of the GCC member states . Lastly, compared to other developing and developed countries, the number of higher education (tertiary level) students per 100,000 inhabitants for GCC countries ranks among the lowest; Figure 7 shows that GCC states lag behind such countries as Korea, Argentina, the USA and even Lebanon. Figure 7 Number of higher education students per 100,000 inhabitants, GCC and selected Arab and non-Arab countries, around 1995 Oman Saudi Arabia Qatar Egypt Lebanon Israel USA 5000 3000 4000 6000 1000 2000 Source: Fergany-Almishkat Center for Research, February 2000. 2 5 Recent figures for female unemployment in Saudi Arabia, for example, are estimated at around 15.8 percent (Bourland 2002). Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. Expenditure on Higher Education 20 Studies on the relationship between expenditure and student learning/achievement differ in their results. While Taylor (1997) finds a positive and significant, albeit low, correlation between high school students’ academic achievement and per student expenditures, Hanushek (1989), Hirth and Mitchell (1995) find that there is no significant relationship between the two. Other studies by Wendling and Cohen (1980), however, show that when socio-economic status was factored into the study there was a high correlation between expenditure and student achievement among low-income students. Thus, this inter-relationship between socio-economic status, achievement and per student expenditure suggests that additional resources may result in increased learning especially for underprivileged students. Data for the GCC states (see Figure 8,9 and 10 below) show that investments in education started a general trend of decline after the collapse of the price of oil in 19862 6 . For some GCC countries these figures remained the same over a span of 20 years (1975-1995) indicating a reduction in education spending in absolute as well as per capita terms given the high fertility rate of the Gulf states and their declining oil income through out much of the 1990s. This is especially true after the 1991 Gulf War, when much of the treasury surpluses of the GCC countries were depleted. 2 6 Kuwait is an exception due to the 1991 Gulf War. Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. 21 Figure 8 Total Public Spending on Education (% GNP) 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 1975 1980 1985 1988 1989 1990 1991 1994 1995 1997 ®BHR EKWT □ OM N □ OAT OKSA Source: World Development Indicators 2000 (UNESCO). Figure 9 Total Expenditure On Education As A Percent of GDP 200 160 1972 1973 1974 1976 1976 1977 1976 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1986 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1996 1996 1997 1998 □ BAH 0KWT □OMN DUAE Source: World Development Indicators 2000. Note: Data for Saudi Arabia are missing Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. 22 Figure 10 400 - r O C A . Tertiary Expenditure F ’er Student (% of GNP Per Capita) ofln . O C A . □ KW T □ OMN ■ OAT BSAU O A A 150 - 100 - 50 n I ¥ j f i I I I ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ Source: World Development Indicators 2000 On the other hand, public expenditure on education as a percentage of Gross National Income (GNI) for a country like Saudi Arabia seems to have increased noticeably in the period 1998-2000 compared with other developed and developing countries as seen in Figure 11 below. In fact, compared to other GCC states, the Saudi expenditure figures per student (as a percent of GNP per capita) at all three levels depicted below seem to be much higher than in the early 1980s. But expenditures are measured by their returns, and what is troubling about these figures is that there has been little return on education in terms of GDP growth; in fact, from 1980 to 1998 the kingdom’s average annual growth was almost nil at 0.2% (Reed Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. 23 2000). Furthermore, these high costs may be indicators of inefficient allocation of resources, especially when compared to other Gulf states. Figure 11 Ribfic Expenditure On Education As A Percentage of G N I 10.00 9.00 8.00 7.00 6.00 5.00 4.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 0.00 22 Source: UNESCO Institute for Statistics—October 2002. The Quality of General Education Problems abound with respect to the efficiency and the management of the educational systems in the GCC countries. In particular, there has not been careful implementation of the strategic plans for public education in terms of adaptation to Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. 24 the changing world and local environments2 7 . Most poignantly, while the world has been moving towards a more technically and scientifically oriented generation of students, the GCC continued, for the most part, to graduate generations of non technical workers. These workers became accustomed to filling government administrative jobs over the last 30 years. While universities did offer fields in various sciences, they lacked the resources, both human and material, to keep up with the levels of progress demonstrated by other countries in the developing and industrialized nations. Of greatest concern is the fact that there have not been, until recently, any efforts by the governments to formulate a national policy that encourages students to major in science and technology fields. In the next paragraphs, we will see how quality indicators are lacking and we will look more closely at Saudi Arabia in order to provide a clearer example. According to the National Center for Education, there are several indicators of school quality of which three stand out. These indicators and their relationship are summarized in Figure 12 below. The first is “school context”, which stresses school leadership, goals, and its relationship to the professional community, its discipline and the academic environment in which it is situated. The second indicator relates to teachers’ academic skills, assignments, professional experiences and development, which contribute to the quality of learning The third indicator is “classrooms” where 2 7 The state o f Qatar seems to have been moving in the right direction with its future plans for an “Educational City”. We’ll expand on this later on in this paper. Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. 25 course content, pedagogy, technology and class size all interact with factors of teacher quality and school context to influence student learning. Figure 1 2 SCHOOL QUALITY INDICATORS AND THEIR RELATIONSHIP TO STUDENT LEARNING - • - ------------------------ ‘ jSC IK X ll C O N I1 X I ! 1 1 A C IILK s (. LASSRt X IMS | • School 1 ejdership | • 1 cachcr Academic • Course Content • Goals skill • l'cd.igog\ • holessionul Coinmiimls ! • 1 caching Assignment • 1 eehnologv • Discipline | • 1 e,idler I’spei iciiec • Class Si/e ' • Academic 1 imronnieiil I • I’lolessional ) 1 X’\ clopmciit 1 .................................... STUDENT LEARNING Source: National Center For Education Statistics (December, 2000). School Context Research suggests that leadership initiatives on the part of principals and teachers have an indirect influence on school effectiveness through adopted policies and actions that shape the climate of learning at schools (Heck, Larsen & Marcoulides, 1990; Hallinger, Bichman & Davis, 1996; Leithwood, Jantizi & Steinbach, 1999). In particular, principals and teachers who are more involved in instructional decision-making characterize high achieving schools that hone the abilities of students-especially the potential scientists among them- and inculcate the importance of science and technology fields. Furthermore, principals are found to Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. 26 have a direct impact on their schools’ achievement through leadership practices even when controlling for socio-economic factors. For example, science fairs that regularly take place in the United States help draw the attention of local and state communities to future talents and provide a means of community and business participation in school curricula through funds that encourage the promotion of science and technology studies. In addition, Akerlof and Kranton (2002) point out that the motivations of teachers and administrators are key to the success of different schools especially when they, not only identified with the goals of the schools, but also participated in creating them. More importantly, this motivation reflects positively on students’ identification with the schools’ missions and, therefore, increase their learning and academic performance. In the GCC countries school policy and actions emanate from the government. While this, in and of itself, is not necessarily negative, too much control over school policy is known to have adverse effects. That is, restricting freedom of action in schools is known to stiffen creativity and reduce incentives for achievement. These rules and regulations, for the most part, are political in origin and are, therefore, not discussed in cooperation with the teachers, the principals, and the parents who are the prime interlocutors for the students and who better know their needs and requirements for enhanced learning. In Saudi Arabia, schools follow the instructions of The Supreme Committee for Education which is the highest Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. 27 government authority supervising the education in the kingdom since its establishment in 1963. The principals’ influence stretches only as far as implementing the rules issued by the committee with almost no discemable input from themselves, their students, their teachers or the parents. For example, the Committee stipulates that students must be five years or older to enter the primary school level; thus if a perfectly capable child is a month younger than the cut off age, he/she is doomed to repeat the whole year.2 8 To give another example—of a more political nature—the government does not allow Saudi children to enter international schools (many catering to expatriate children) without the strict—and limited— permission of the government2 9 . Research has also shown that there is a strong positive relationship between school/community partnerships and student achievement (Bulach, Malone & Castleman, 1995; Oinonen, 1980; Rutherfored et al., 1995; Schneider, 1985). These partnerships provide schools with the information and support needed to improve students’ overall achievement. This is particularly true for relationships with professional communities from which schools receive numerous qualitative and quantitative benefits including funds, professional teacher volunteers as well as invaluable feedback on ways to improve school quality concomitant with job market needs in an ever-changing environment. 2 X While other countries do have a cut-off age for kindergarten, there is more flexibility in their policies to make-up for the inadequacies o f such decisions. For example, in the U.S. the cut-off dates extend for a few months in some states and leave the entrance-age question up to local districts decisions in others. This provides more flexibility and leads to a more robust mix o f 4-year-olds and 5-year-olds enrolled in kindergarten. 2 9 This decision reflects the conservative view that regards the influence o f foreigners on Saudi children as undesirable. Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. 28 Such partnerships are absent in modem Saudi cities where the structure of the community is hard to detect. Looking at the layout of urban areas in the kingdom it becomes apparent that the schools are not integrated into the local communities. Instead, they are distantly scattered around the various districts creating difficulty in engendering any strong relationships between the schools and the various districts3 0 . The result is little, if any, association of schools and professionals with their neighborhood communities, compounding the existing problems and reducing the chances of improving student learning3 1 . The academic (teaching/learning) environment is another important factor considered under school context. Increasing the amount of time spent on instruction was shown to increase the achievement of students (Keukarn & Gilman, 1996; Stuck & White, 1992). It was also found that there was a high correlation between time management and student performance, and that the quality of the time spent was important in such outcomes (Grisay, 1994). Student ability to access a broad range of learning resources and tools was positively correlated with student learning (Greenwald, Hedge & Laine, 1996). Hanushek (1997) found that this relationship proves stronger for low-income students. In Saudi Arabia, the school schedule changes every year according to the Muslim calendar. Frequently, this creates confusion among students and has often resulted in delays. But while fitting the school schedules to coincide with the lunar 3 0 For example, I would be living in district A and my daughter will go to school in district B. 311 am referring to pre-tertiary schools especially high schools. Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. 29 calendar is not a problem, per say, it does reflect inherent problems that are related to a lack of organizational discipline and which shed some light on how badly the educational system is managed. For example, during severe budget deficits in the early nineties, Saudi teachers—mostly women—at the pre-tertiary levels were not paid their wages for several months at a time. University students, as will be expounded upon later, have not been able to enter the major of their choice even if they have received top test scores that qualify them to enter those majors.3 2 Businessmen who requested permission early on to build private universities in order to ease up the imminent onslaught of students on public institutions were denied their requests forcing graduates to either wait for years or move to other countries for higher education3 3 . Furthermore, there are no summer schools to either speed up students’ graduation or help them make up a failed class. Should any student fail his/her examination, they are obligated to repeat the entire school year. In addition, public high schools have very few libraries or other significant sources of information to complement school material, and while Internet access is available in the kingdom, it has been limited to high-income families3 4 . Moreover, public libraries are few compared to the number of schools in the country and are more 3 2 Local newspapers are frequent with complaints related to these incidents. For example, in a recent article a father wrote to a journalist complaining that his son scored in the ninety nine-percentile and was not able to get into medical school. 3 3 This is also fraught with problems o f equivalence upon the students’ return, which can cause them to repeat classes or not have their certificate accredited by the authorities. 3 4 In 1995, Saudi Arabia’s Internet users per 1,000 people were 0.1, which was less than the average o f developing countries o f 0.5 and less than that o f the Arab countries (0.2) for the same year. This may be due to the fret that dial-up connection fees have been, until recently, exorbitantly high. In addition, printing and writing paper consumed (kilogram per person) measured 4.6 in 1995, less than the average for developing countries o f 5.2 (ESCWA 1999). These figures demonstrate the low access o f information and communication. Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. 30 tailored to serve business organizations. Clearly then, there exists a problem with managing the educational system. This has reflected negatively on education as a whole and has resulted in increased pressure on universities, misallocation of human resources and declining performance among the Saudi student population including high repetition rates.3 5 Figure 13 REPETITION RATE BY GRADE IN PRIMARY BY COUNTRY FOR THE SCHOOL YEARS 1998/1999 10.00 1998/1999 1998/1999 1998/1999 1998/1999 1998/1999 | 1998/1W 9 | 1998/1999 Germany | Jordan | Kuwait | Lebanon j Oman | Saudi Arabia j United Arab Emirates H Grade 1 ■ Grade 2 □ Grade 3 □ Grade 4 ■ Grade 5 B Grade 6 Source: UNESCO Institute for Statistics— October 2002 Teachers The second factor that influences student learning relates to teachers’ academic skills, their assignments, their experience in teaching and their professional development. Several studies have found a positive and significant relationship between teacher qualifications, their experience and student achievement (Lytton & Pyryt, 1998; Wendling & Cohen, 1980; Naron, 1985). Other variables which 3 5 See figure 13 for an example o f repetition rate by grade in primary education. Data for higher levels were not available. Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. 31 measure teacher characteristics such as education, years of experience and teaching ability have also been found to correlate positively and significantly with the achievement of students (Greenwald, Hedges & Laine, 1996). Studies by Rossmiller (1984) also show that professional development activities tailored to improving teachers’ skill and knowledge can help students improve their learning and academic achievements. During the oil boom years of the 1970s and the 1980s, most of the teachers in Saudi Arabia as well as other Gulf countries, at all levels of education, came from Arab countries, most notably from Egypt. But while Egyptian teachers had better overall teaching experience than their Saudi counterparts, who were in short supply, they continued to follow old teaching methods based on rote memorization3 6 , inherited long ago from old schools known as the “kuttab”3 7 without invoking modem techniques of encouraging creative thinking and originality of work3 8 . Since these foreign teachers came from countries that were themselves suffering from low teacher quality, they added little value to the overall attempt to build a modem educational infrastructure. And while over the past several years some foreign teachers had been replaced by undoubtedly younger and more able Saudis, they were effectively marginalized as key decisions are usually made by the senior—and more 3 6 This is especially true for the pre-tertiary level. See for example Richards and Waterbury (1997). 3 7 These schools traditionally taught boys to memorize the Holy Quran, the ‘Hadith’ (sayings o f the Prophet), Arabic grammar and poetry. They still exist in many Arab countries especially in villages. 381 have experienced this first hand when our history teacher at Victoria College, an originally English high school that later became an Egyptian public school, told us to memorize our lessons for the exam without putting in any individual analysis or comment. Also, my brother had the same experience; he had a talent for drawing and when he presented his work to the Art teacher in the same high school she admonished him for ‘bringing in someone else’s work’. Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. 32 bureaucratic—Saudi teachers who, in turn, follow the Ministry of Education’s policy which is the final arbiter3 9 . Figures 14 and 15 and Table 3 show that non-Saudis—mostly Arabs— continue to represent a significant percentage of teachers at all levels of education. For example, in 1990 the number of expatriate teachers at the university level reached almost 100% in Oman and around 50% in Saudi Arabia. By 1997 the gap had declined to about 20% to 25% in general education mainly through the employment of Saudi female graduates, while a large majority of teachers in teacher- colleges and institutes, technical colleges and other special education institutes continued to be of non-Saudi origin.4 0 The quality of teachers, especially at primary and secondary levels, is also questionable. This is due to several factors, among which are low teacher wages and badly managed resources that do not entice the best and the brightest to enter into the academic profession. As earlier mentioned, in the years after the 1991 Gulf War, a large number of teachers, especially Saudi female, were not paid their monthly salaries, rated among the lowest in the kingdom, for several months at a time. 3 9 This is equally true for higher education institutions. 4 0 For example, foreign instructors in secondary and higher education in Teacher’s College and Institutions reached 72.8 and 72.2 percent respectively in 1997 (see Table 3 below). Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. 33 Figure 14 % RATIO OF EXPATRIATES OF TOTAL UNIVERSITY STAFF MEMBERS IN 1990/91 (GCC AND OTHER ARAB COUNTRIES) 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 --- , f— 1 , ..... , Oman Qatar S. Arabia Jordan Syria Source: The Higher Educational System in the Arab States: Development of S&T Indicators Figure 15 100.00% 90.00% 80.00% 70.00% 60.00% 50.00% 40.00% 30.00% 20.00% 10.00% 0.00% Percentage of Saudi vs Non-Saudi Teachers in General Education (1997) Pre-Primary E i = H Jzzz., L I j □Saudi ■Non-Saudi Eiemontaiy Intermediate Secondary Total Source: Statistical Yearbook-KSA, Ministry of Planning. Central Department of Statistics 1997 Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. 34 Table 3—Full-Time Teachers by Nationality, Type and Level of Education 1993-1997 (% ) 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 Saudi 11 C O in Saudi 11 Saudi Non- Saudi Saudi Non- Saudi Saudi Non- Saudi Pre- Prim ary 63.7 36.3 64.3 35.7 67.8 32.15 68.7 31.3 71.3 28.6 Elementary 76.9 23.1 78.5 21.5 81.3 1868 83.5 16.5 87.2 12.8 IS Inter mediate 63.3 36.7 67.2 32.8 70.1 29.91 73.6 26.4 78.1 21.8 0 X I w Secondary 57.6 42.4 64.2 35.7 66.9 33.02 70.8 29.2 74.6 25.4 Teacher’s College & Institutions Secondary 1.9 98.1 4.9 95.0 8.8 91.20 17.2 82.8 27.2 72.8 Higher 27.6 72.4 26.9 73.1 29.5 70.43 28.7 71.3 27.7 72.2 C 5 Secondary 48.8 51.1 54.5 45.4 59.6 40.41 65.2 34.8 70.4 29.6 U .D H 11 H m Higher 44.6 55.3 47.9 52.1 59.7 40.29 63.8 36.2 68.6 31.4 Special Ed.* 51.5 48.4 61.6 38.3 58.5 41.53 60.6 39.4 62.0 38.0 Adult Ed. 79.1 20.8 83.6 16.3 82.9 17.06 87.9 12.1 90.5 9.5 Other 59.4 40.5 61.5 38.4 67.8 32.20 71.1 28.9 74.3 25.7 University E d . 55.3 44.6 60.4 39.5 60.0 39.97 59.0 41.0 60.9 39.1 *Include part-time teachers Source. Saudi Ministry o f Education-- Statistical Yearbook 33rd Issue 1997 (percentages are rounded off) But the problem is deeper than just low wages, important as this factor may be. Teachers’ academic skills are subject to the low quality conditions that are pervasive in the educational environment in Saudi Arabia. These conditions have been lacking at all education levels, creating a vicious cycle. Teachers who are graduates from a low quality educational system end up teaching within that same system thus exacerbating the already existing problems. Furthermore, teachers do not have much leeway in their teaching style; assignments handed out to their Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. 35 students strictly follow the government-approved textbooks, keeping personal input of teachers to a minimum. In addition, teachers have a strictly academic background with little professional experience in business, government or public institutions. Thus, with unproven academic skills, limited leeway in the style and methods of teaching and little or no professional development, the scope of teaching in the kingdom as well as in other Gulf countries is quite limited and the effect is a poor quality of instruction. Classrooms The third factor that influences student learning is that of classrooms. Among the elements important to this factor are course content, pedagogy, and technology and class size. Curriculum represents one of the most important elements of course content. It identifies the changes required for moving forward with the changing technology as well as the internal and external environment affected by regional and international developments. For example, in the 1970s computer science was at its infant stages in education, now in most schools of developed nations computer- related courses are mandatory. How a curriculum is designed must reflect the societal and economic needs of countries as they position themselves in an ever-changing economic environment. Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. 36 For the GCC countries the challenge is two-fold. For the short and medium range, these countries have to create jobs for their ever-increasing youth population through the provision of technical education and expertise in order to replace the more skilled foreign labor that currently occupies many of the private sector jobs. In the long term, the GCC countries have to shift their dependence from oil to other means of production and income. In both time horizons, careful planning of the educational system is required and appropriate curriculum design is paramount to meet the upcoming challenges. Studies, notably by Holsinger (1982), show that curriculum content was consistently and significantly related to achievement scores, with student achievement being higher for schools where the principals were involved in curriculum implementation (Heck, Larsen & Marconlides, 1990). For the kingdom, 1995 figures on curriculum structure (see Tables 4 & 5 below) and content show that for primary education, about 70% of classes, on average, were literature related while almost 20% were related to science and technology subjects4 1 . Similarly, for the intermediate level, 73% of the classes were literature while about 18% were science related courses respectively4 2 . What is interesting for the case of Saudi Arabia is that a big chunk of the curriculum is devoted to religious studies. For primary and intermediate level classes, religious 4 1 We have excluded physical education and some social science courses were missing. This results in a more conservative estimate 4 2 H&SS and literature are used interchangeably throughout this paper. While the former is a broader term, both refer to non-scientific courses and/or classes. Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. 37 studies occupied an average of 30% and 24% of the total periods respectively.4 3 But is this the optimal structure for a curriculum? Easterlin’s (1999) discussion on the relationship between education and development questions the effect of certain types of religious education in promoting economic growth. More particularly, he suggests that, depending on the content of religious studies; education may or may not be conducive to economic growth. This is because some academic institutions, which exist in large part as a result of political and ideological concerns, do not promote rational thinking and, thus, become obstacles to the development of formal schooling. On the other hand, Akerlof and Kranton (2002) cite Peshkin’s (1985) account of a (private) Christian school in Illinois as an example of unifying the ideals of schools, parents and students, thus positively affecting educational attainment.4 4 Pre-tertiary education in Saudi Arabia and other GCC countries can be viewed as an interesting mixture of religious and secular education, where religion is emphasized—through a rote memorization style of teaching—in both primary and intermediate levels of education, while secular studies are emphasized at the secondary level and, in particular, the senior year of high school. 4 3 According to the Saudi Ministry o f Education’s Statistical Yearbook (1997), religious subjects include the Holy Quran, Quranic intonation, Islamic theology, Islamic Jurisprudence, Islamic tradition, culture, conduct and behavior. 4 4 The writers refer to the Christian code o f discipline, which bridges the gap between home and school thus positively affecting student’s learning. Thus it is understood here that the school promotes “core knowledge” identified by Hirsch (1996). Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. Table 4 Curriculum Structure for the Prim ary Level Number of Weekly Periods In Each Grade Subject I I I III IV V VI 1 s t Term 2n d Term Religion 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Percent of Total* 32.14% 32.14% 32.14% 32.14% 30.00% 30.00% 30.00% Arabic Language 12 11 9 9 9 8 8 Percent of Total* 42.86% 39.29% 32.14% 32.14% 30.00% 26.67% 26.67% Social Subjects (Geography, History) 2 2 2 Percent of Total* 6.67% 6.67% 6.67% Science & health education 1 2 2 2 3 3 Percent of Total* 3.57% 7.14% 7.14% 6.67% 10.00% 10.00% Arts & Crafts 2 1 2 2 1 1 1 Percent of Total* 7.14% 3.57% 7.14% 7.14% 3.33% 3.33% 3.33% Physical Ed. 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 Percent of Total* 7.14% 3.57% 7.14% 7.14% 3.33% 3.33% 3.33% Total Periods 28 28 28 28 30 30 30 Literature as percent of total no. of courses* 82.14% 75.00% 71,43% 64.29% 70.00% 66.67% 60.00% Avge = 69.93% Percent of Science & Technology courses of total* 714% 17.86% 21.43% 21.43% 23.33% 26.67% 26.67% Avge ■ = 20 65% ♦Percentages are added. Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. Table 5 Curriculum Structure at the Intermediate Level EDUCATIONAL PLAN AT THE INTERMEDIATE STAGE OF GENERAL EDUCATION FOR BOYS (1997) Subject I I I III Religion 8 8 8 Percent of Total* 23.53% 23.53% 23.53% Arabic Language 6 6 6 Percent of Total* 17.65% 17.65% 17.65% History 2 2 2 Percent of Total* 5.88% 5.88% 5.88% Geography 2 2 2 Percent of Total* 5.88% 5.88% 5.88% Science & Health Education 4 4 4 Percent of Total* 11.76% 11.76% 11.76% Mathematics 4 4 4 Percent of Total* 11.76% 11.76% 11.76% English 4 4 4 Percent of Total* 11.76% 11.76% 11.76% Art 2 2 2 Percent of Total* 5.88% 5.88% 5.88% National Education 1 1 1 Percent of Total* 2.94% 2.94% 2.94% Physical Ed. 1 1 1 Percent of Total* 2.94% 2.94% 2.94% Total Periods 34 34 34 Literature as percent of Total Courses 73.53% 73.53% 73.53% Average = 75.53% Percent of Science and Technology of total courses* 17.65% 17 65% 17.65% Average = 17.65% Source: Ministry of Education, 1997 (each period lasts forty-five minutes) ♦Percentages are added. Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. 40 In effect, therefore, schools choose the dominant ideology as the main platform of curricula at an early stage. However, since this ideology is influenced by the political economy of the state, it does not, for the most part, mirror the student’s or the community’s preferences.4 5 ,4 6 As a result, the effect on education is likely to be negative for two main reasons. First, the emphasis on religious studies, at the expense of math and sciences, means that students are less likely to enter the science and technology field after their first high school year examination, which determines their educational affiliation, i.e., literature or science 4 7 Second, such emphasis may well bias the students’ decision in favor of literature—even if they are analytically skilled—at a time when decisions made at such a young age is irreversible.4 8 According to Akerlof and Kranton: “The goals and curricula of public schools are the product of elected school boards; the nature of these schools, their ideals, may then derive from the political economy of a community. If schools’ goals include promoting certain ideologies, school choice may be neither skill-increasing nor ideologically neutral.” By comparison, science and technology periods for the primary level in Lebanon averages 24% for first, second and third primary and 31% for the fourth, 451 am referring here to the private sector in particular. 4 6 According to Akerlof and Kranton: “Parents want their children to be like them ideologically, but they also want their children to be able to communicate with others for economic gain... Schools interested in students’ skills have a reason to choose the ideology o f the dominant culture because that is the idiom o f commerce, but they have reason to mirror their students’ preferences.” 4 7 At the end o f their freshmen year, students take an exam, which determines whether they become literature or science majors. 4 8 High school juniors are generally between 15 and 16 years old. Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. 41 fifth and sixth primary4 9 . For the intermediate level the average number of science and technology periods represents 38% of the total periods for the seventh, eighth and ninth level. In addition, secondary-level science and technology classes for the first, second and third levels averages to 36%5 0 (WDE 2001). Similarly for Iran, the 1996 figures show that science and technology hours for the five primary levels averaged 31.8% of the total weekly class hours and 39.4% for the lower secondary level (WDE 2002). Additionally, in Israel, in 2000 lower secondary S&T weekly hours represented 29% of the total weekly hours studied in the state-religious schools (WDE 2002)5 1 . Pedagogy is the study or practice of teaching. Teachers have to deal with a whole range of student profiles, characters and academic abilities. They must be able to interact with their students and spot any potential problems that might interfere with reaching their true academic potential. As such, they must be able to make students feel like an integral part of the scholarly discussions. They must also challenge them, provide them with insight and feeling of discovery, allow them to make a contribution to their learning and arouse their interest. In addition to 4 9 If we exclude physical education periods these averages increase to thirty and twenty eight percent respectively. 5 0 Again, excluding sports the average is 39%. 5 1 In Iran, religious studies occupies an average o f 15.5% and 13.5% for primary and lower secondary education respectively, while in Israel, religious studies for lower secondary is 25% o f the weekly classes. These two countries are cited because o f the importance o f religion in the school curriculum and can provide a closer comparison to the Saudi case. Note also that upper secondary is not comparable between these countries since for Saudi Arabia the upper secondary is divided into S&T and H&SS (science and literature) divisions. Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. 42 covering the necessary material, teachers must present it in a student-friendly manner and be able to integrate their tutorials/lectures with the various assignments. While finding teachers with such qualities is a hard task even in developed countries, the lack of the above qualities in Saudi teachers is exacerbated by the low wages and the lack of independence of both teachers and schools. It was stated earlier that teachers in Saudi Arabia have no leeway in putting forth their ideas and experiences from which their students can benefit. Instead, they must follow strict regulations regarding the text assigned by the Ministry of Education and the rules that relate to teaching methods5 2 . Combined with the little experience that teachers have, poor school context and a weak curriculum structure, teachers have little chance of adding value to their profession or improving on their experiences. Past studies on the relationship between school size and student achievement found a significant association between them (Duke, 1998; Heck & Mayor, 1993; Howley, 1996; Lee & Smith, 1997; Stockard & Mayberrry, 1992), but with little consensus among these studies as to whether the size of the student population contributes to higher or lower achievement levels. Some of these studies suggest that the ideal school size for maximum learning is in a middle range; others say student populations are related to more effective learning, while still others found that small and large schools are distinct in their effect on benefits to student learning. Therefore, enrollment figures cannot be assumed to have a direct causal effect on 5 2 This is especially true for religion where a more conservative form o f Islamic teaching (Wahabisim) is taught. Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. 43 students’ achievement, but are generally used as a descriptive statistic to note the trends in the student population, the number of schools required and the comparative size of schools. The rationale for the impact of class size on learning is that with smaller class sizes, teachers are able to provide a wider range of instructional methods and learning activities, and students benefit more from individualized instruction, become more proficient at basic skills and master more subjects (Blatchford & Mortimore, 1994; Betts & Shkolnik, 1999). Despite the published figures showing student-teacher ratios comparable to those of developed countries, public schools in the kingdom lack an environment conducive to student learning. This is because the above rationale for the impact of class size on student learning is based on various assumptions pertaining to teachers, physical facilities, parental interaction and various other factors that are not supportive of student learning for the Saudi case. Furthermore, the literature has shown that there is no consistent relationship between class size and student achievement precisely because other factors need to be included in the studies. For example, Robinson and Wittebols (1986) show that the relationships between class size and student achievement vary noticeably across grades, across subject areas and by instruction methods. Technology in education was also found to impact positively and significantly on student achievement (Sivin-kachala, Bialo & Langford, 1997; Roblyer, 1989). More recent studies have shown that the use of computers in Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. 44 classrooms can raise student achievement if used the ‘right’ way (Archer, 1998). This is another issue that public schools in the kingdom have to contend with as most of them lack these tools that are now viewed as instrumental in student learning5 3 . Thus, while Saudi Arabia and other GCC countries have made great progress in education in the past 30 years, their overall educational achievement, judged by the current criteria in the literature, is still modest given their rich endowment in natural resources, and especially in comparison to some less endowed developing countries. It is also clear from the above analysis that despite the high expenditures on education, public schools, especially at the pre-primary and primary levels, lack the essential ingredients for promoting student learning and achievement. More importantly, these shortcomings are especially present in science and technology, more markedly in higher education, a topic to which we now turn. The Quality of Higher Education Higher education plays an important role in adding to knowledge and the quality of human capital stock, while higher education institutions, especially universities, carry the main responsibility of developing future minds, preserving and 5 3 While data to substantiate this assertion are scarce, my discussions with teachers at various levels indicate that the lack o f resources do not allow for such things as computers, internet access and modem science labs. This is also evidenced by the earlier discussion on teacher wages as well as data on public spending. Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. 45 rejuvenating cultural heritage and, thus, occupying an important place in the economic, social and political spheres. Studies have shown a strong relationship between the field of study in higher education and economic growth. Indeed countries that heavily contribute to the current stock of knowledge have intensified their attention to the various branches of science and technology fields. Furthermore, studies have suggested that there is a strong relationship between measures of labor force quality from mathematics and science test scores and economic growth (Hanushek & Kimko 2000). But despite the riches of the Gulf countries, indicators of higher education quality show that progress has been limited. In the next few paragraphs we will compare GCC quality indicators of higher education to those of developing and developed countries in an attempt to better ascertain the current status of higher education. To begin with, the number of graduates in science and technology fields in the GCC is quite low. While Bahrain ranks relatively high compared to other developed and developing countries, Saudi Arabia and Qatar rank low in terms of the percentage of science graduates in higher education5 4 . Figure 16 shows Saudi Arabia 5 4 The higher rank for Bahrain may be attributed to its higher dependence on the private than the public sector for employment, and its long tradition in trade compared to other GCC states. According to the Survey o f Economic and Social Developments in the ESCWA Region (1999-2000), Bahrain is the lowest producer o f energy products compared to other ESCWA region countries and generates the least oil income. In addition, Bahrain has been traditionally open to outside investments from various international companies-especially banks-which demand more skilled labor including science and technology graduates. Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. 46 ranking at the bottom part of the list. These low ratios also reflect the high shares of humanities and social science (H&SS)5 5 graduates in higher education. Figure 16 Percentage of Science Graduates in Higher Education; GCC, Arab and Selected Non- Arab Countries (1995) Algeria Korea Israel USA Egypt Qatar Gaza Strip 0 10 20 50 30 40 60 70 Source: Feragany-Almishkat Center for Research, February 2000. Next, to better understand the stock of human wealth, we look at the number of graduates in S&T as a percent of population size over a reasonable time period. Figure 17 shows that, among the GCC States, Bahrain scores the highest followed by Kuwait. On the other hand, Saudi Arabia and Mauritania are almost on equal footing with the latter’s ratio exceeding those o f Oman and the UAE. These figures are alarming as they show a dearth of skilled human capital in countries that are among the richest in the world and at a time when other countries, developing and 3 5 Humanities & Social Sciences include: Economics & Administration, Arts, Islamic studies, Education, Law, Physical Education, Fine Arts and Journalism. Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. 47 developed, are focusing on future generations of S&T graduates to embrace a new technical and global economy. Figure 17 FIRST DEGREE UNIVERSITY GRADUATES AND S&T GRADUATES, PER 100,000 INHABITANTS, GCC AND OTHER ARAB COUNTRIES 1980-1995 LEBANON JORDAN BAHRAIN EGYPT KUWAIT QATAR MAURITANIA SAUDI ARABIA UAE OMAN YEMEN SOMALIA E H S&T El First Degree Univesity 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 Source: Feragany-Almishkat Center for Research, February 2000. Figure 18 Student/Staff Ratio In Higher Education, Selected Regions (1980-1995). More Developed Regions ■ * Asia/Oceania Developed Regions ICC Latin America/Canibb ean 1995 1990 1985 1980 Source: GCC from World Development Indicators (2000). Other data were obtained from Fergany-Almishkat Center for Research. February 2000. Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. 48 Figure 19 Student/Staff Ratio In Higher Education of GCC Countries (1980-1995) 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 1980 1986 1991 1995 Bahrain * Kuwait — Oman Qatar — ♦ UAE Source: World Development Indicators 2000. * Note: Bahrain & UAE data extend only to 1991. A third indicator of quality is the ratio of faculty to students referenced earlier in this paper. Figure 18 shows a worsening of this ratio from 1980 to 1995 compared to other regions5 6 . This is due to the increase in the number of students without a parallel increase in the faculty of higher education. This is especially true for the ratios of the individual GCC countries depicted in Figure 19 where an explosion in enrolment has not been matched by an increase in resources due, in part, to the deterioration of 5 6 Note that because o f the interruption caused by the first Gulf War to Kuwait, its data are understandably lower than the average, thus biasing the results downward. Figure 19 shows the individual GCC countries’ faculty/student ratios. Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. 49 oil prices in 1986, the first Gulf War that cut deep into governments’ budgets in much of the 1990’s, and other economic and political reasons5 7 . Summary There is a strong relationship between the level of economic development and higher education. Such a relationship has been illustrated in other studies by relating GDP per capita in purchasing power units (as an indicator of economic productivity) and the number of students at the tertiary level of education per 100,000 inhabitants (Fergany 2000). Higher education has also been evolving in developed nations to become more flexible in enrolment, availability and cross- functional disciplinary research. This has required a new academic organizational structure that is more closely connected to the business community, other research institutes and international organizations. This development gave a new role to higher education, one that is more market oriented, with universities becoming more interlinked with their external surroundings and less autonomous over time. As a result, there has been an important shift in the value of education from an idealistic to a more materialistic nature. In addition to changing the traditional identity of the university, this shift will affect the access to knowledge and indeed the stock of human capital. 5 7 Note that the increase in enrolment is a quantitative measure and does not reflect the quality o f education; that is, while undoubtedly Figure 19 implies that S&T students have increased, it does not mean that the quality has improved. On the contrary, the above figure shows that it is quite likely that the quality o f teaching has declined thus graduating a lower overall quality o f students. Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. 50 The low quality of education, combined with weak technical, analytical and innovative abilities in the Gulf States, has had serious consequences. It has negatively affected higher education institutions since they have drawn their faculty from their alumni pool, and has hindered the education system as a whole, since universities are the major source of pre-tertiary level instructors. In addition, it has suppressed research and development by limiting the faculties to local university graduates mid researchers5 8 , which has also contributed to stifling any process of knowledge transfer that may have made important contributions to the productivity and economic growth. While higher education in advanced economies may be considered as the model to follow, it is questionable whether such a model would be appropriate for the Gulf region’s culture and society, which are, not only far removed from their Western counterparts, but also have a relationship with universities that is based on social, cultural as well as political factors. Thus the challenge for the GCC countries is indeed difficult; on the one hand they must endeavor to improve the quality of higher education—a non-trivial undertaking—and, at the same time, they must redefine the relationship of their universities with the external—local regional and international—environments. In the next section we will analyze the quality of education and discuss the major obstacles that face students in obtaining private- 5 8 In a survey o f science in the Arab world published recently by UNESCO, both Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, which have the highest per capita income, spent 0.22% and 0.11% o f their respective GDP on R&D These figures are considerably lower than the 1% threshold level considered the minimum spent on research and development by the industrialized world and are among the lowest in the region. By comparison, Egypt and Jordan spent approximately 0.34% and 0.24% o f their respective GDP (Ferhat 1996). Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. sector jobs in Saudi Arabia. Later we will suggest ways to confront these challenges and offer recommendations. Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. CHAPTER III 52 A SURVEY STUDY OF SAUDI ARABIA Motivation Saudi Arabia is one of the largest countries in the Middle East and one of the richest in financial resources. It is also home to 22 million people, which makes it the most populous GCC country, and, therefore, important for investigation. In addition, there are many similarities between the kingdom and its rich neighbors that allow us to draw general conclusions from the Saudi experience for the Gulf region as a whole. As previously mentioned, the Saudi overall economic growth has stagnated since the 1980s; from 1980 to 1998 growth averaged a meager 0.2% per annum while, at the same time, the high fertility rate has resulted in a large number of labor market entrants with some 110,000 Saudis coming into the workforce each year and only 40,000 finding jobs. Estimates by the Saudi-American Bank put joblessness in 2000 at 14% overall mid 20% among Saudis from the ages of 20 to 29. Other sources estimate the unemployment of Saudis at between 10 and 27% (EIll Risk Service 2000). A National Commercial Bank (NCB) study shows that only 17% of Saudis entering the job market in the latter part of the 1990’s had college degrees. Of those only a minority had majored in science or engineering (Reed 2000). Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. 53 To understand the reasons for unemployment among Saudi youth, we must understand the dynamics between the qualitative demand of the private sector versus the quantitative supply of various institutions, especially universities. By investigating the selection process for entering a specific college or major, the quality and factors of education at the pre-university level that affect the student’s selection as well as the sources of information available about the job market and other social factors, we can understand not only why many students end up selecting H&SS, but why even S&T students themselves are facing obstacles to entry into the job market. Furthermore, by looking at sample surveys of employees and managers on the one hand and students and managers on the other, we can support our hypothesis that Saudi employees, compared to their foreign counterparts, are less fit to handle the overall level of skill demanded by the private sector5 9 ; a fact that is a source of concern for private sector managers and which prompts them to opt for foreign laborers in an effort to reduce the costs of training that becomes a prerequisite for less skilled Saudi workers. Review of The Relevant Literature6 0 The most recent study on the quality of education and its effect on economic growth is reflected in the UNDP Arab Human Development Report o f2002 where school quality indicators of Arab countries are juxtaposed against those of 5 9 This, as we will see, is compounded by the difficulty in firing Saudis once they are hired. 6 0 For a detailed review o f the literature on Saudi Arabia pre 1995 see Ajaji (1995). Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. 54 developing and developed nations. The report found that while there has been some progress for Arab countries in the past thirty years, there is a dire need for tackling the increasing problem of joblessness as well as the importance of strengthening personal freedoms and citizens’ participation in political and economic affairs. Feragany (2000) provides an overview of the status of Arab higher education and relates it to Arab economic underdevelopment. He analyses in more detail the available data to shed some light on the status of education in the Arab world. He attributes the dearth of human capital wealth to the decline of Arab education and concludes that a challenging job lies ahead where an achievement of wide coverage of education with a steady upgrade of quality, is critical in catching up with more advanced educational systems. Using regression analysis, Pritchett (1999) examines the macro data of the MENA region and concludes that the rapid educational attainment reached by the region in the past few decades has not contributed significantly to an increased economic growth; this, he attributes to the low quality of education in the region. Focusing on the Saudi case, Kronemer (1997) attributes unemployment in the kingdom to the period of generous government subsidies and to an old traditional desert culture that does not allow for Saudis to accept non-managerial-type jobs. He advocates a change in the attitude of young Saudis by stressing the importance of work ethic. Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. 55 Like Kronemer, Looney (1994) attributes the unemployment problem in the kingdom to the reluctance of nationals to do menial labor. He also addresses how the small number of students majoring in S & T fields adds to the unemployment problem in terms of non-qualification for jobs. After conducting a survey of university graduates and managers, Ajaji (1995) compares the “perception” of Saudi university job-seeking graduates with that of mangers (job providers) in the private sector. He finds that differences in perception on issues such as information about employment preparation, methods of employment preparation, job requirements, benefits and incentives as well as other various issues result in obstacles to employment that need to be addressed if any solution is to be achieved. Sonbul (1993) also surveyed Saudis and expatriate college graduates (Western and non-Westem) in 16 companies in an attempt to ascertain the motivational, organizational, technological and governmental factors that affect the implementation of computer-based technology transfer. He found that Saudis feel more strongly than the other two groups that they are as qualified to perform functions currently reserved for expatriates, that they should take positions currently occupied by expatriates, and that efforts to reduce the number of foreign laborers should be increased. Alghafis (1992) analyzed old records and observations in past interviews with key personnel in various levels of research, education and industry. He Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. 56 observed that communication between the government and universities was sub- optimal; that is, the universities were not included as an integral part of the Saudi national development goals and there was a dire need for an informal network of contacts between the industry and the academic community. In addition, he pointed out a mismatch between job requirements and the skills of Saudi university graduates as well as a lack of full-time graduate students in the sciences, which represented major hindrances to building up a specialized cadre of skilled professionals. Among his top recommendations was the development of strong links between universities, government plans and industries as well as some degree of university autonomy, modernization of institutions, and fostering a culture of professionalism within the academic community. Other studies of the Saudi labor market reached similar conclusions regarding the need for a change of work ethics, building of skills and new labor policy that advocates a reduction in foreign labor through, among other things, the imposition of a minimum wage (Al-Dosary, 1991; Al-Assaf 1987). Looking at the relationship between the private and the public sector, Senany (1990) interviewed 73 government employees and 12 private sector executives. He found that the private sector had a very limited role in the planning of education in conjunction with government authorities and organizations. That is, the private sector had limited participation in matters of national economic policies that relate to future job opportunities in which it is expected to play a major role. He advocated Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. 57 the continued employment of foreign labor as a short-term solution until structural changes in education, which he recommends, begin to take effect on the economy. Finally, Ibrahim (1983) studied the Saudi labor market using mostly secondary sources; he concluded that the kingdom lacked a qualified supply of manpower as an impetus for economic growth. His short-term solution is for the continued employment of foreign labor until structural changes are made in education. Contribution of This Study What is new about this study is that it digs deeper into the root cause for the low level of skill among Saudi students—the future job seekers. We ask how students rate school quality and social factors (deemed important by the literature in helping student achievement) in terms of the required score for entering their first choice of major. We also ask how employees and managers (nationals and expatriates) view each other in terms of their work relationship, the skill level required for the job and the current employees’ levels and fields of education. And, given the managers’ impression of their employees, we seek to know how managers may view prospective Saudi job applicants. Moreover, we ask how private sector managers and university seniors perceive characteristics that are deemed necessary Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. 58 for nationals to have, in order to compete with foreign laborers. This will shed light on potential barriers to national employment in the private sector. In particular, we analyze the survey results from three angles; first we describe the profile of those surveyed and provide descriptive analysis; second we confirm these results through correlation analysis for students to provide us with a discemable relationship between the various school-quality factors and students’ learning. Finally, we provide statistical tests in order to answer major questions and draw conclusions. Three groups made up of students, employees and managers (Saudis and expatriates) are surveyed. The first group’s survey serves to highlight how students view factors that affect their education (curriculum, teachers, textbooks etc.) in terms of the score required to enter into their first choice of major.6 1 The second and third groups’ survey will help us understand how workers view each other and management in terms of their (i.e. workers’) technical skills, work effort and employment opportunities and, similarly, how managers view their employees. These surveys will also provide us with a snapshot of the current status of private sector employment in terms of the number of demanded positions in various fields, the profile of national and expatriate workers in terms of their academic backgrounds, analytical skills and perception of managers. In addition, survey results for managers and students who have sought work during their senior year will help shed some light on barriers to entry into the private sector job market as viewed by both Saudi youths and managers. 6 1 We will discuss this in more detail later in this paper. Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. 59 It is interesting, albeit not surprising, that in all of the studies cited, there has been little mention of woman-related studies. This is partly due to the conservative nature of Saudi culture as well as the limited female participation in the labor force compared to its male counterpart. This survey does include both male and female students, but is limited in terms of the number of female managers and workers surveyed. Nevertheless, the insights they have provided will be of value in our efforts to ascertain the unemployment problems for the Saudi economy as a whole. Assumptions Clearly, one of the major concerns when conducting surveys and interviews is the validity of the answers of the targeted sample. It is, therefore, assumed that respondents have answered questions to the best of their knowledge. Nevertheless, certain measures were followed to ascertain the consistency of answers within the survey questionnaire itself and across the surveyed groups6 2 . It is also assumed that managers of private firms are rational in that they seek to hire skilled employees suited for the required positions regardless of their nationality, but at the same time taking into consideration their responsibilities in the efforts to help in the nationalization policy of the labor force. We equally assume that students are rational in the sense that they choose their major based on the best information they have at 6 2 For example, answers relating to students’ age and their school year and similar answers among literature and/or science majors provide some level o f consistency. Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. 60 hand in terms of market demand6 3 . Furthermore, it is assumed that the sample collected is representative of the larger population. Finally, the choice to survey college students—and not high school students—was made based on the assumption that college students can provide better insights in terms of, not only their high school experiences and their reflection on the quality of education, but also how such experiences might have influenced their choices of major and their current academic status. Scope of Research The first part of this survey focuses on university students. It asks students to reflect back on their high school year as a point of reference and respond to questions pertaining to their experience with assignments, teachers, and social and personal reasons that influenced their choice of majors6 4 ,6 5 . They were also asked about their knowledge of the job market and demand assessment for their field of study as it pertains to the skills they are developing at their current universities and their sources of information about the labor market. With respect to the private sector, both Saudi and non-Saudi workers and the managers interviewed and surveyed were asked to respond to questions that related 6 3 This choice is assumed to be also supported by parent’s experience and knowledge o f the market. 6 4 For content and quality o f survey data see the section on ‘Reporting Period’, Deaton (2000). 6 5 Unlike Deaton’s (2000) concerns about the quality o f data for household surveys, which asks them to remember their consumption expenditure, high school activities are not easily forgotten by students even for a protracted period o f time. Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. 61 to their employers and employees respectively. Other questions about employee skill level and their perception of the quality of education and their association with academic institutions were also posed with descriptive and inferential analysis provided. Limitations While sample size is sufficient for statistical analyses6 6 , the absence of resources did not allow for a large-scale survey or for repeated waves of the targeted samples. Furthermore, some female workers/managers could not be interviewed personally, but their responses were obtained via a female intermediary and/or email correspondence. The study was limited to three major universities from the Makkah /«» (Western), Riyadh (Central) and Dammam (Eastern) regions . These regions contain over 60% of the Saudi population. For data collection from the private sector, the study was limited to companies selected randomly from the top 1000 private companies listed in the directory of top 1000 Saudi companies.6 8 6 6 The student sample was 142 while the sample o f the private sector firms was 52. 6 7 Makkah region refers here mainly to the city o f Jeddah. 6 8 Other sources such as the listing o f businesses in the local chambers o f commerce and industry publications were also consulted. Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. Survey Particulars 62 The Population The target of this study is university students, private sector managers and workers in major Saudi cities. The survey included both males and females in each respective target. The companies surveyed were of different sizes with employment ranging from 20 to over 200 employees from the most populated urban regions of the country. The Sample The total number of students surveyed was 142. Of those, 79 male students were interviewed/surveyed and 63 females were asked to complete the survey questionnaire and return them via email and/or post. For the private companies selected, the total number of employees surveyed was 52 and the sample number of managers interviewed and surveyed was 246 9 . Of the total number of employees, about 31 percent were expatriates. On the other hand, expatriate managers represented about 37 percent of the total managers surveyed. 6 9 Many male students, employees and managers were interviewed on a one-to-one basis in order to obtain a better understanding o f the issues in question. Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. Research Questions 63 It is important to recognize early on that for students to enter the majors of their choosing, they have to go through two main mile stone events. The first occurs during the freshman year of high school when students, based on their GPA scores, are separated into S&T and H&SS fields7 0 . The second takes place towards the end of the students’ senior high school year where those who are in S&T as well as those in H&SS divisions get to choose their top 4 respective majors in the order of most- to-least desired. The Ministry of Education then determines the scores required to enter the various majors based on the total availability of seats and the average GPA for each major. Finally, the students in S&T and those in H&SS are allotted to the various colleges based on their cumulative score7 1 . Clearly, however, in both of these milestone decisions students are influenced by many factors, including the high school quality indicators, involvement by parents, teachers and classmates. Thus, in designing the survey questionnaires, we had to take the above decision process into consideration so as to reflect the following main research questions: 1. Which, if any, of the above-mentioned school factors affected the choice of major for students? 7 0 Generally, the S&T division requires a higher score. Those who achieve this score are allowed to enter H&SS should they chose to do so but not the other way around. 7 1 Misallocation o f students through cronyism w ill be discussed in the course o f the survey analysis. Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. 64 2. Does a significant relationship exist between various groups of students in regards to the effect of school context, teachers and class size factors on the students’ choice of major? 3. Do significant differences exist between the claim to knowledge of the labor market and the choice of student’s major?7 2 4. Do significant differences exist between graduating seniors who sought jobs during their senior year and private sector managers in terms of barriers to entry in the Saudi job market? The first question is answered by correlating the sample responses to the main variable (Q33), which relates to the influence that high schools had on student’s test scores, to various sample responses (other variables) regarding curriculum, teacher and assignment impact as well as the effect of parent involvement and social factors on the choice of majors7 3 . For the second question, a Chi-square test is run to find out the significance of the above-mentioned relationships. A rejection of the null hypothesis would indicate that students agree that these school factors did not have a significant impact on their scores and, thus, on their choice of major. 7 2 We assume that students prioritize their choices o f major based on their knowledge o f the labor market. 7 3 More explanation will follow in the correlation-for-students section in this paper. Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. 65 Similarly, the third question is answered by running a Chi-square test to ascertain whether students’ choice of major was based on their knowledge of the labor market, e.g. if they chose engineering because they knew that there is a demand for engineers through the various available sources or for some other reason. Again, the main implication is that if no differences exist between students who claim to know the job market demand and those who do not, then there is reason to believe that students were misallocated, that is, students’ choice of major is inconsistent with the information about the labor market. The fourth question is answered by running a t-test of the responses (based on a five scale answer). A rejection of the null hypothesis will indicate differences in views and/or attitudes between job-seeking students and managers, which would provide insight into some of the factors that are causing barriers to entry into the Saudi private-sector job market. For the survey targeting the private-sector workers and managers, we were seeking to answer the following main questions: 1. What is the general perception of Saudi and non-Saudi managers with respect to Saudi workers’ work effort vs. that of expatriate workers? 2. What is the specification/major of Saudi workers vs. expatriates? 3. What is the demand across firms for S&T fields vs. other fields? Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. 66 4. What is the educational level demanded by firms? 5. How do managers perceive Saudis’ technical and analytical skills? 6. How strong are the relationships between the private sector and the academic institutions around the kingdom? 7. How easy is it to lay off Saudis vis-a-vis non-Saudis? 8. What is the overall preference of managers in terms of hiring Saudis vs. non- Saudis who have equivalent credentials? 9. What are managers’ views/attitudes vis-a-vis workers as to the basis on which Saudis obtain their jobs? The answers to these questions are gauged through both descriptive and inferential analysis and they will serve to show, in combination with other results, why managers are more likely to hire expatriates. Research Instruments In accordance with the stated purpose o f this study, three questionnaires were used to collect data, one for students, and another for workers in the private sector and a third for managers in the private sector. Questions for students centered mainly on the quality of education as explained above. On the other hand, questions for Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. 67 managers and workers were similar for the most part, with changes in terms of the questions posed about their perceptions of each other and depending on the nationality of the target. In addition, similar questions were posed to graduating seniors and managers to ascertain their perception of barriers to student entry into the private sector job market. The initial version of each questionnaire was based on the reasons for unemployment among Saudi graduates as is discussed in the literature review above. The main reason was the lack of skills among Saudis, but other reasons such as the lack of a strong relation and communication between private companies and academic institutions are also cited. Friends, students, workers, managers and academicians revised initial drafts of the questionnaires. Some questions in the student questionnaire were constructed based on readings and surveys in publications by “The Educational Development Resource Center” as well as readings from the “National Center For Education Statistics” and “High School and Beyond”, but were adapted to fit the Saudi case. The suggestions and recommendations were incorporated into the initial and subsequent drafts. A final draft of questionnaires was reviewed and revised by a Saudi professor at King Saud University in Jeddah and a few private sector employees and managers. The final draft of the questionnaires was translated into Arabic. Most of the students preferred using Arabic questionnaires while those answered by private Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. 68 sector employees/managers were answered in both Arabic and English. I was careful to make sure that nothing was lost in the translation. The final version was reproduced for a pilot study conducted by several students, managers and employees. The subsequent suggestions were incorporated into the version used in this research. Data Analysis Methodology The Data collected were analyzed both quantitatively and qualitatively depending on the nature of the question. The quantitative analysis refers to the use of descriptive and inferential statistics. The former involved the use of frequency distribution of responses to the questionnaires, while the latter refers to the inferential analyses of data by testing the null hypotheses derived from research questions/objectives through the use of non-parametric statistics—Chi square and t- tests. In addition, correlation analyses were used to identify the relationship between specific responses (variables) in the questionnaires. Qualitative analysis is based on the interpretation of responses provided by the targeted sample to some open-ended questions. The student survey questions are, for the most part, ordinal with a five-point scale. The descriptive analyses below show the extreme cases (categories 1 & 2 and 4& 5) where answers to responses 1 & 2 are added and categorized as strong disagreement with the question while categories 4& 5 represent strong agreement; Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. 69 neutral responses (category 3) are used in inferential analysis. In addition, nominal questions were asked depending on the nature of the question7 4 . This should be taken into account when reviewing the summary of survey results and Table 7 below. Descriptive Analysis— Students Demographics The majority of sampled students (60%) were in the 18-22 age group ranging between college freshmen and juniors. This sample is intended to reflect on their high school years and, to a lesser extent, provide their input regarding their experience in college. The remaining students were seniors who had been actively seeking jobs in their senior years. As we will see, the analysis of their views vis-a- vis that of private sector managers will shed light on obstacles that students face in their efforts to seek jobs in the private sector. Gender & Field of Major Both male and female students were surveyed. The sample (142 in total) was about 55% males and 45% females. Of the former, about 30% were science and technology majors while 70% were humanities and social science majors. Of the 7 4 See Arlene Fink (1995) for a complete analysis and description o f ordinal and nominal questions. Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. 70 male sample that majored in S&T, 42% did not get into their first choice of major, while 59% of those who majored in H&SS obtained their first choice of major with the remaining 41% having to choose other majors.7 5 All of the male students surveyed graduated from public high schools.7 6 Table 6;Student Gender & Field of Major Male Students Female Students School Type Public Public Private Total (female) Number o f Students 79 45 18 63 Percent o f Total 55% 71% * 29% * 100% S&T Majors 24 12 1 3 25 Percent 30% 48% * 52% * 40% H&SS Majors 55 33 5 38 Percent 70% 87% * 1 3 % * 60% S&T Majors Who Did Not Obtain 1s t Choice o f Major 10 5 5 10 Percent 42% 50% * 50% * 16% H&SS Majors Who Did Not Obtain 1s t Choice o f Major 23 1 1 1 12 Percent 41% 92% * 8 % * 1 9 % ♦Note: Percentages are of total female students in public and private schools. 7 5 Of the 57 male science majors, 33 answered yes to Q7, while 24 answered no. Additionally, o f the 22 male literature majors, 13 answered yes to Q7, while 9 answered no. 7 6 According to the Jeddah educational website (www.jeddahedu.com), there are three private high schools for boys in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, five in Riyadh and three in Dammam. Our results had an insignificant number o f male students from private high schools and were, therefore, discarded. Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. 71 On the other hand 71% of female students surveyed went to public high schools while 29% went to private schools. Of the 45 female students educated in pubic high schools, 48% were S&T majors and 87% were H&SS majors. On the other hand, of those who went to private high schools, 52% were S&T majors while 13% majored in H&SS. Of the former, 50% did not get their first choice of majors; the same is true for the latter group majoring in S&T. For female students who majored in H&SS and did not get their first choice of major, 92% of them were from public schools, while only 8% were from private schools. These results are displayed in Table 6 above. Interestingly, science and technology majors among females— especially those from private high schools—are more numerous than male students by ten percentage points. However, there appear to be obstacles across all student groups in entering their first choice of S&T majors. Province of Residence The distribution of student home residence were divided as follows: - 50% were from the Makkah Region (Western Province), 25% from the Central Region, 20% were from the Eastern Region, 3.5% from the Southern Region and 1.5% from the Northern Region. About 40% of the students were from the city of Jeddah, 20% from Riyadh, 12% from Mecca, and the rest came from various other cities including Jizan and Al-Khobar. Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. 72 English Proficiency Of the male students surveyed in this sample, about 60% did not feel that they were proficient in English (reading & writing) while the remaining students reported that they were comfortable with reading and writing in English. On the other hand around 57% of female students indicated that they were proficient in English7 7 . What is note worthy is that 70% of science male students did not believe themselves to be proficient in English.7 8 As will be explained, this is seen as a hindrance by many private organizations. Not only is a significant part of Saudi companies’ business conducted in English, but also a large percentage of people working in the private sector are expatriates with English as their first or second language. Thus one of the implications of this result is that in order for knowledge to flow from expatriate workers to Saudis and eventually have the latter replace the former, Saudis must have proficiency in English7 9 . Another implication is that Saudis who can exhibit English proficiency may have a competitive edge over both nationals and expatriates and can receive higher wages8 0 . 7 7 This, in large part, may be attributed to the influence o f private schools where English is taught at an early stage. Virtually all the female private school students (27%) indicated that they were English proficient with the remaining 30% from public schools. It is important to point out that in public schools, English is taught at the secondary level only which explains why the majority o f students from public schools do not feel comfortable with reading and writing in English. 7 8 See table 8 below. 7 9 O f course, knowledge transfer would also be easier if Asian and Western expatriates had knowledge o f Arabic. However, this is rare even among Muslim expatriates. 8 0 Knowledge o f both Arabic and English has become increasingly important for businesses. This w ill undoubtedly increase as more market reforms are undertaken to bring in foreign capital investment. Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. 73 Summary of Survey Results The following are highlights of the descriptive results obtained from the student survey8 1 ; they reflect students’ opinion on the quality of high school from their vantage point. Tables 7 and 8 show the overall perspective of male and female students. These preliminary results show that, overwhelmingly, students do not regard “assignments” and “teachers” as either having made a significant contribution in their choice of major or as having helped them get the score required for entering the major of their choice.8 2 Notice that the majority of students do not think that at the time of the survey they had developed the right skills to enter the labor market despite the ‘knowledge’ some of them have claimed about it. Also notice that students perceived inputs from their high schools as insignificant regarding guidance on future job-market demands. Furthermore, given the structure and the selection criteria of the current system, it is not surprising that students overwhelmingly believe—through personal knowledge—that a good portion of students did not get the minimum cutoff score to qualify for the major into which they were accepted, but rather, were admitted to their choice of major through family 8 1 This list is not exhaustive. 8 2 Table 8, however, shows that there are some differences within the various male and female groups. Literature male students rated teachers better than science male students and female students from private schools reflected more positively on teachers relative to females from public schools. These differences w ill be explained later in this paper. Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. 74 or other contacts. This result is especially true for male students who overwhelmingly acknowledged the wide spread existence of cronyism8 3 . Another interesting result is that the overwhelming majority of students (83% of males and 82% of females) did not consider vocational schools as an option during their high school years. While this result is not surprising, what is surprising is that 17% of both male and female students at least considered it. This result is higher among literature majors when compared to their science counterparts, with the former representing 23% while the latter representing almost 15% of those surveyed.8 4 Differences between the sexes appear more clearly in connection with personal reasons for the choice of major; while male students regarded financial incentives and improvement of job prospects as major elements for their choice of major, female students chose their majors more for the desire to learn and for intellectual stimulation. One of the signs of changing times in the GCC countries, and particularly in Saudi Arabia, is the desire of women to have financially rewarding careers. Today, female students—just like their male counterparts—seek lucrative job opportunities upon graduation (70 percent of males and 48 percent of females strongly agreed that they had chosen their major to enhance their financial conditions). 8 3 See Tables 7 and 8 below. 8 4 Note that 45% o f science female students from public high schools said that they have considered vocational schools. This result may reflect the increasing demand for jobs by the female population. Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. 75 Table 7 Preliminary Survey Results by Gender Male Students Female Students Strongly Agree Strongly Disagree Strongly Agree Strongly Disagree Assignment s Assignments Contributing to M ajor? 26% 52% 13% 76% Assignments Im portant? 34% 43% 35% 53% Personal 1 Financial Incentives Im portant? 70% 23% 20% 48% 2.Improving Job Prospects? 66% 1 8 % 38% 41% 3.Desire & Knowledge? 66% 20% 73% 23% 4.1ntellectual Stimulation 44% 33% 65% 20% 5. Financial Reasons 25% 56% 10% 82% Expected Demand 1.Knowledge of Demand for choice of m ajor. 66% 16% 26% 59% 2.1nformation from my high school helped me understand the expected demand for my choice of m ajor. 37% 47% 1 6 % 73% Yes/No Questions Yes No Yes No 3.Developing Right Skills? 44% 56% 49% 51% 3. Considered Vocational Schools? 17% 83% 18% 82% 5. Know demand for field of Study? 75% 24% 44% 56% 6. Familiar with Internet Career Services? 57% 43% 56% 45% Strongly Agree Strongly Disagree Strongly Agree Strongly Disagree Social & Financial Influence Proficient in English? 40% 60% 57% 33% Do your parents show interest in your high schoolwoik? 65% 25% 56% 31% Do you believe that your friends influenced your choice of m ajor? 1 7 % 47% 13% 62% I chose my major to please my parents. 27% 61% 13% 77% I chose my major to be with my friends. 1 2 % 77% 1 7 % 65% I chose my major to have a financially attractive career. 70% 23% 20% 48% Cronyism Many students entered their first major because o f what they know? 16% na 20% Na Many students entered their first major because of who they know? 68% na 47% Na Teacher Did teachers have and important Impact in helping me enter my first choice of m ajor? 27% 55% 45% 30% Note I : Numbers are rounded off. Note II: “Strongly Agree” is the sum of categories 4&5 while “Strongly Disagree” is the sum of 1& 2. Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. 76 Table 8 Preliminary Survey Results by Major and Gender (in percent) Science M ajors Literature Majors Male Female Male Female Public Private Public Private SA SD SA SD SA SD SA SD SA SD SA SD Assi g- Contributing to M ajor? 30 46 9 73 0 87 18 68 15 77 40 40 Im portant? 33 43 42 42 14 86 37 47 29 61 40 40 Personal Financial incentives important? 74 17 33 33 12 25 62 38 1 3 64 37 37 Improving job prospects? 71 14 42 50 12 75 54 27 46 34 37 25 Desire & Knowledge? 71 12 58 42 75 25 54 41 81 15 62 12 Intellectual Stimulation 42 32 67 17 62 • 25 48 43 64 22 71 14 Financial Reasons 22 59 25 67 0 100 41 50 9 79 0 100 Expected Demand Knowledge of demand for choice of m ajor. 77 4 58 42 25 50 43 43 12 75 57 29 School provided information for job demand. 51 32 17 75 0 100 41 50 21 65 25 75 Yes/No Questions Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No Developing right Skills? 40 60 58 42 63 37 55 45 48 52 0 100 Considered vocational schools? 1 5 85 45 55 14 86 23 77 13 87 0 100 Know demand for field of Study? 75 25 42 58 50 50 77 23 39 61 33 67 Familiar with internet career services? 61 39 50 50 25 75 50 50 66 34 67 33 SA SD SA SD SA SD SA SD SA SD SA SD S ocial & Financial Influence Proficient in English? 30 70 45 55 75 25 45 55 55 45 80 20 Parents show interest? 65 22 58 33 37 12 64 32 56 37 50 25 Influence of friends on choice of major. 12 50 27 45 0 62 27 41 15 67 0 75 Chose major to please parents. 27 62 0 92 0 87 27 59 22 66 0 100 I chose my major to be with my friends. 7 81 17 50 12 75 23 68 24 70 0 60 Cronyism Students entered th en - first major because of what they know? O r 17 Na 27 na 25 na 15 na 49 na 0 na Because of who they know? 67 Na 45 na 37 na 73 na 51 na 75 na Teacher Did teachers have and important Impact in helping me enter my first choice of m ajor? 22 55 42 17 50 0 55 41 48 52 50 25 Note 1 : Numbers are rounded off. SA=Strongly Agree SD=Strongly Disagree Note II: “Strongly Agree” is the sum of categories 4&5 while “Strongly Disagree” is the sum of 1&2. Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. 77 While this result is more pronounced with females educated in pubic schools, the increased education of women will undoubtedly result in increasing their demand for jobs. As we will discuss later in this paper, this constitutes a challenge for the GCC states that needs to be addressed. There are also some commonalities between the various student groups that are worth mentioning. In general, the majority of male and female students agree that their parents do show interest in their schoolwork. In fact, for all student groups and sub-groups, there seems to be a general consensus that parents do show interest in students’ schoolwork.1 Nevertheless, there are some differences within and between the student groups that need to be pointed out. First, note that among the male sample, literature students disagree more than male students with respect to parent involvement in their schoolwork. Almost 32 percent of male literature students said that their parents were not involved in their schoolwork as opposed to 22% from science majors. The reason for this difference may be attributed to the fact that science majors require more private tutoring, for which parents usually hire professional tutors, than literature majors. Thus, there is more parental involvement with schoolwork even if it is only at a financial level. A similar difference exists between female science and literature majors across private and public schools. Note, however, that a comparison between females who attended private schools and those who attended public schools reveals a relatively more significant difference. For example, female science majors who attended private schools rated higher their 1 However, as we will see later, correlation results will show that parents’ interest in schoolwork does not translate into an effective factor with the choice o f major for some groups o f female students. Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. 78 parents’ involvement than did those in public schools. Similarly, literature majors from private schools who strongly agreed represented 56 percent as opposed to 50 percent of their public school counterparts.2 Furthermore, similar results are obtained when analyzing the effect of friends on the choice of major. Again, students in all groups and subgroups indicated that the effect of friends is only minimal ranging between 12 percent for females to 17 percent for males as can be seen in Table 7. However, Table 8 shows that the effect of high school friends on the students’ grades and choice of major differs by gender and by field of study.3 For example, literature male students are more influenced by friends than science male students (27 vs. 12 percent). On the other hand, science female students from public schools are relatively more influenced by their friends than literature female students from the same school group. Figure 20 shows the importance of the sources used by students to locate employment opportunities in the private sector. Newspaper ads were listed as the top source for such information followed by word of mouth and other sources such as walk-in inquires and local employment offices. The interesting part about Figure 20 is that university sources represents only 4% indicating how little involvement the universities have in terms of their relationship with the local job markets. 2 While this is not a significant difference, note that, within this same group, 25 percent o f the female private school students indicated that they strongly disagreed (that is, they weakly rated their parent’s involvement in their school work) as opposed to 37 percent from public schools. This indicates that, overall, private school students rated their parents involvement higher than public school students. 3 This w ill also be seen in the context o f the correlation results later in this paper. Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. 79 Figure20 Sources of Job Information for Saudi University Students Other 19% Word of mouth 32% Internet sources 10% University sources 4% Newspaper ads. 35% Source: Student Survey Result Descriptive Analysis—Private Sector Employees Figure 21 shows various profiles of the sample of Saudi male employees in the private sector. The top left figure shows the age profile. As can be seen, the majority of employees (80%) are between the ages of 26 and 40 with 36% in the 26 to 30-age range. Note that those ranging in age between 18 and 25 represent only 8% of the total. In comparison, the age group of non-Saudi employees is mainly concentrated in the range of 41 to 50, which represents 62% of the foreign labor as seen in Figure 22 below. Another difference between Saudi and non-Saudi Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. 80 employees’ profile is in the education level, with Saudis holding only a high school diploma representing over 20% of the employees surveyed, while that of expatriates representing only 7% of the total. Figure 21 Saudi Male Employees--Sample Survey A s.P ro fi h- m o 8 *,. C L 6 K " 1 ‘ tru! $ 8 i i i i S - i ; E l I'f! Age The majority o f Saudi employees surveyed were educated in the kingdom. About 20% were educated in the United States of America and 6% in other Arab countries. By comparison, the majority of foreign employees received their education from Asian countries with 30% split equally between the U.S.A. and Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. 81 Europe with the remaining 23% being from other Arab countries. There is a striking difference in the majors chosen by the two groups; Saudis majoring in H&SS represented 67% of employees. On the other hand, about 67% of non-Saudi employees had S&T backgrounds, the remaining 33% with H&SS majors. Figure 22 Non-Saudi Male Employees-Sample Survey Age Profile (Non-Saudi Employees) C O 6 0 K " — .....— .. .........— — .... |2 **- '•-1 HX g » .., O CL « * m n i l Age Education Level COUNTRY OF HIGHEST EDUCATION 8 f — * * — o c 8 ® CL Country FIELD OF EDUCATION In addition, Figure 23 below shows the method by which surveyed employees obtained their most recent jobs. The majority did so through walk-in inquires and personal contact through people who worked in the company (45% and 30% respectively). This is consistent with the perception of employees and Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. 82 managers that a significant number of those employed obtained their jobs through personal connection and not mainly through their qualifications. What is interesting is that job fairs and the university task in career placement plays an insignificant role; only 4% indicated that their jobs were a result of university fairs and another 4% indicated that it was due to job fairs. This is consistent with the information obtained from the student survey (Figure 20 above), in which university sources for job information represented only 4% of the overall sources of information. Figure 23 SOURCES OF JOB ATTAINMENT FOR EMPLOYEES Other University Fair 4% Job fair 4% Through a person who works here 30% Through the internet Source: Survey Results Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. 83 Juxtaposing the results obtained for female employees with Figure 21 shows that Saudi female employees are younger, with 31% ranging in age between 18 and 25; additionally, their education level and major field profiles look more like those of expatriates than Saudi male employees, with S&T presenting 63% of the majors of the female workers. This is not surprising, as more and more women hired in private firms are selected from science and technology backgrounds such as medicine, computer science and mathematics. Figure 24 Saudi Female Employees’ Profile CELfWCFHGK^BDLDVTCN F E U X F E 0 L C A T 1 C N m . C btrty Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. Managers 84 The sequence of graphs in Figure 25 tells an interesting story about managers, Saudis and expatriates, and the perception of their employees. Graph 1 shows that Saudi managers’ ages (60% of those surveyed) are in the 31 to 40 range, while foreign managers’ ages are spread out, especially through the higher age groups. Graphs 2 & 3 show managers’ perception of Saudi employees’ skill levels; in Graph 2,43% of Saudi managers and 38% of expatriate managers see Saudis as not analytically apt, while in Graph 3,38% and 25% respectively see them as not proficient in computers. These results are important in that a significant number of managers-who are directly or indirectly involved in the recruitment of Saudi nationals-see Saudis as lacking the basic skills needed for positions within their organizations, and hence they will be inclined to hire foreign labor4 . The problem of Saudis’ lack of skills, as perceived by managers, is compounded by the managers’ inability to fire Saudi nationals for poor performance. In graphs 4 & 5,60% of Saudis and 80% of expatriate managers stated that it was difficult to discharge Saudi employees for poor performance. 4 This has been my experience as well while working for the second largest Saudi company; in a series of interviews aimed at hiring young Saudis for analytical-type positions about 97% of carefully selected interviewees were unable to perform basic analytical and computer functions. Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. Figure 25 Saudi & Expatriate Managers’ Profile 85 H Saudi H Expat. Mjrs w o utovous T H A N V O U H S U F E Q U A L .F .« D G A U O , 1 8 1 B Saudi ,o * L M grs. ( V .. N O Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. 86 Yet when asked if foreign workers could be easily let go for similar reasons, 73% of Saudi managers answered affirmatively.5 As a result, managers become more inclined, especially with a dearth of qualified Saudi applicants, to hire foreign laborers whom they can replace more easily should their performance not measure up to management’s expectations. Furthermore, Graph 6 shows management’s perception of Saudi employees’ work efforts. In particular, while the majority of foreign managers (67%) perceived Saudis as not hard workers, only 36% of Saudi managers concurred6. Combined with Graph 7, which shows the majority of managers willing to hire Saudis who are of equal qualifications to those of their foreign counterpart, this implies that as far as Saudi employees are concerned managers look for skill and work ethic; in fact, for this survey managers are even willing to hire employees who might be potential competitors for their managerial positions as can be seen from graph 8. Firms The majority of businesses sampled were from the service and trade sectors. These were targeted in the three major cities of Riyadh, Jeddah and Dammam. Table 9 shows the profile of companies that participated in the survey, while Table 10 5 Only 22% of expatriate managers said that firing expatriate workers was possible; this result may be due to the fact that expatriate managers come from various countries and they form alliances with Saudis which makes it difficult to fire them for under performing on the job, as that means going against Saudis themselves. 6 This may be the result of how Saudi managers view work ethic compared to expatriate managers. Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. 87 shows the fields of majors required.7 Among the interesting results is that S&T fields are highly demanded by these organizations, with a bachelor’s degree as the most demanded degree. More particularly, private sectors surveyed indicated that the S&T jobs demanded represent 53% of the total, while H&SS jobs represented 47%.8 Table 10 shows the percentage and frequency of these demanded fields. It is important to note than many jobs that fall under the H&SS, such as Finance, Economics and Marketing, do require analytical and computer skills. Summary of Descriptive Analysis The above descriptive analyses show that there exist several gaps that need to be bridged between the demand (private -sector companies, employees and managers) and supply (institutions/students) side. The first—and the main focus of this paper—is the mismatch between student qualifications, including those who have majored in S&T fields, and the jobs offered. From the perspective of students, high school context, teachers and classrooms have not been able to significantly assist them in achieving the score that allows them to obtain their first choice of major. 7 The profile of the private sector companies is also based on the categories listed in the Saudi Statisical Yearbook (1997). 8 S&T include Engineering, Medicine, Nursing, Mathematics, Biology, Chemistry, Physics, Geology, Computer Science, Pharmacy and Agriculture, while H&SS includes Economics & Administration, Arts, Islamic studies, Education, Law, Physical Ed, Fine Arts and Journalism. Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. 88 Table 9 Profile o f Private Sector Companies Surveyed PROFILE PERCENT NUMBER PROFILE PERCENT NUMBER Location Field of Study demanded Riyadh 47.00% 24 Applied Science 62.00% 20 Jeddah 33.00% 17 Humanities 28.80% 9 Dammam 20.00% 10 Pure Science 5.20% 2 Natural Science 4.00% 1 Sector Opening Positions Trade 30.20% 16 Trade 30.50% 10 Service 27.90% 15 Service 20.00% 6 Manufacturing 16.20% 8 Manufacturing 18.10% 6 Contracting 12.40% 6 Contracting 16.20% 5 Finance 7.50% 4 Finance 5.70% 2 Agriculture/ Fishing 3.80% 2 Agriculture/Fishing 4.70% 2 Other 2.00% 1 Other 4.80% 2 Size Type of Business & Job opening Less than 200 employees 32.40% 10 Engineering 37.10% 12 200-499 27.60% 9 Management 29.50% 9 500-999 14.30% 5 Technical 18.10% 6 Over 1000 25.70% 8 Clerical 6.70% 2 Number of Saudi Employees Professional 3.80% 1 Less than 20 40.20% 21 Other 4.80% 2 20-99 43.90% 23 Education Requirement 100-199 12.40% 6 BA 74.30% 24 Over200 9.50% 5 Masters Degree 5.70% 2 PHD 6.70% 2 Certificate 4.80% 2 Other 8.60% 3 Table 10 Field of Major Demanded by the Private Sector FIELD REQUIRED PERCENT Number H&SS 47% 129 S&T 53% 145 Note: The numbers on the right-hand column are higher than the number of companies surveyed. This is because many organizations demanded more than one field. The science majors’ survey show that 39% of males and 40% of females did not obtain their first choice of major. This first hurdle is important in this analysis Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. 89 because it represents a forced shift of students’ goals, one that may result in lower overall aptitude or interest. Secondly, college students who have been admitted to their first choice of majors, along with others who were not admitted, did not perceive themselves as gaining the adequate skills required for the job market. In addition to the English language impediment discussed earlier, students perceive their universities as lacking in terms of teacher credentials and necessary resources. While no solid data are available to ascertain the severity of this problem, this assertion is supported by interviews conducted with science university professors and university officials who indicate that university budgets have been severely tightened over the years with adverse effects on needed university expansions, lab equipment, computers and experienced teachers. On the other hand, the results from private sector firms have shown that the highest demanded jobs belong to S&T fields, and that analytical and computer skills of the current Saudi labor force need much improvement according to both Saudi and non-Saudi managers. Since science and technology related occupations depend to a large extent on English proficiency9 , it is no surprise that managers-as we will see later on-emphasize its importance. 9 This is because most of the expatriate labor force work in S&T related jobs and also because understanding scientific terminology pre-requires the knowledge of English. Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. Inferential Analysis 90 For the student survey we try to answer the question of what aspects of school influenced the choice of major for students. We use the correlation results for various student groups and subgroups; in particular, we use the Spearman rank correlation coefficient, sometimes called Spearman’s rho, which is a dimensionless index that ranges from -1.0 to 1.0 (inclusive) and reflects the extent of the relationship between the ranks of two sets of questions.1 0 Spearman’s rho is frequently used to describe the relationship between two ordinal characteristics. Correlation Results—Students Tables 11 through 23 below show the various correlation results. Again, the purpose is to identify what influence, if any, did high school curriculums, teachers, textbooks, assignments and social factors have in terms of the students’ choice of major represented by the main variable (question thirty three (Q33) in the tables below). Spearman’s correlation coefficients are listed on the right-most column of the tables with the relevant cells shaded. Some of the relevant other variables are also listed below. 1 0 The main goal of this exercise is to understand how students gauge the various factors associated with their high schools in relation to their abilities to obtain the overall test score that would allow them to enter their first choice of major. While not all the results are significant at the 5 and 10 percent levels—this is partly due to the fact that some respondents did not answer all the questions in the survey questionnaire—they continue to provide an indication of the relationship between question 33 and the remaining questions in Tables 11 to 23. Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. 91 Table 11 Correlation Results—All Students Main Variable Scale (l=not important, 5= very important) Spearman’s Coefficient Scale/Category 1 2 3 4 5 Q33 36 13 21 22 40 Other Variables Curriculum Q9 32 27 35 15 28 0.10 Q10 31 27 28 31 18 -0.051 Qll 55 28 18 13 21 0.10 Q12 50 16 27 10 34 0.60 Teachers Q13 38 24 21 17 37 0.50 Q14 49 23 23 10 31 0.564 Q15 58 14 31 7 27 0.30 QI6 55 28 19 11 27 0.10 Q17 33 20 27 23 38 0.90* Q18 56 21 19 9 35 0.50 Q19 29 12 29 26 46 0.80* Assignments Q20 46 25 25 15 24 -0.154 Q21 69 18 28 10 15 -0.10 Q22 57 25 22 9 18 -0.2 Q23 38 26 23 17 29 0.5 Q46 20 16 15 18 60 0.90* Q47 49 22 40 9 11 -0.10 •Significant at the 5% level. Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. 92 Table 12 Correlation Results-Male Students (Public Schools) Main Variable Scale (l=not im portant, 5- very im portant) Spearman’s Coefficient Scale/Category 1 2 3 4 5 Q33 7 4 12 14 31 Other Variables Curriculum Q9 15 12 23 10 15 0.051 Q10 13 13 19 23 8 -0.051* Qll 27 18 13 6 10 -0.80* Q12 20 9 18 6 22 0.30 Teachers Q13 17 19 11 12 17 -0.462 Q14 27 10 15 6 18 0.00 Q15 31 6 20 4 14 -0.20 Q16 28 19 10 7 11 -0.60 Q17 13 12 16 13 21 0.821* Q18 28 12 10 7 20 -0.20 Q19 11 10 13 15 27 1.00 Q20 19 19 10 11 15 -0.564 Q21 33 11 18 9 7 -0.70" Q22 24 16 16 7 13 -0.718 Q23 14 18 16 8 17 -0.30" Q46 9 8 7 8 36 0.360 Q47 20 13 25 6 6 -0.564 ‘Significant at the 5% level. "Significant at the 10% level Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. 93 Table 13 Correlation Results—Female Students Main Variable Scale (l=not important, 5= very important) Spearman’s Coefficient Scale/Category 1 2 3 4 5 Q33 29 9 9 8 9 Other Variables Curriculum Q9 17 15 12 5 13 0.90* Q10 18 14 9 8 10 0.90* Qll 28 10 5 7 11 0.671** Q12 30 7 9 4 12 0.894* Teachers Q13 21 5 10 5 20 0.803* Q14 22 13 8 4 13 0.917* Q15 27 8 11 3 13 0.894* Q16 27 9 9 4 16 0.917* Q17 20 8 11 10 17 0.671** Q18 28 9 9 2 15 0.917* Q19 18 2 16 11 19 0.450 Assignments Q20 27 6 15 4 9 0.894* Q21 36 7 10 1 8 0.894* Q22 33 9 6 2 5 0.894* Q23 24 8 7 9 12 0.447 Social & Family Q46 11 8 8 10 24 0.229 Q47 29 9 15 3 5 0.894* ‘Significant at the 5% level. Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. 94 Table 14 Correlation Results—Male Science Students Main Variable Scale (l=not important, 5= very important) Spearman’s Coefficient Scale/Category 1 2 3 4 5 Q33 1 1 9 12 24 Other Variables Curriculum Q9 9 8 17 10 12 0.667“ Q10 8 6 16 20 5 -0.051 QH 20 11 11 5 6 -0.816* Q12 12 7 15 6 14 0.154 Teachers Q13 10 13 10 9 13 -0.0541 Q14 20 8 12 5 9 -0.359 Q15 20 5 15 3 10 -0.359 Q16 17 14 7 7 9 -0.632 Q17 9 7 10 12 16 0.974* Q18 20 10 5 7 13 -0.205 Q19 5 7 12 11 19 0.872* Q20 10 14 9 8 12 -0.308 Q21 20 8 15 7 6 -0.821* Q22 15 10 13 7 9 -0.718“ Q23 9 14 13 6 12 -0.359 Q46 14 9 2 3 12 -0.205 Q47 13 11 18 5 1 -0.667“ ‘Significant at the 5% level. “ Significant at the 10% level Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. Table 15 Correlation Results—Male Literature Students Main Variable Scale (l=not important, 5 = = very important) Scale/Category 1 2 3 4 5 Q33 6 3 3 2 7 Speannan’s Other Variables Coefficient Curriculum Q9 6 4 6 0 3 0.289 Q10 5 7 3 3 3 -0.057* Qll 7 7 2 1 4 0.553 Q12 8 2 3 0 8 0.947* Teachers Q13 7 6 1 3 4 0.462 Q14 7 2 3 1 9 0.975* Q15 11 1 5 1 4 0.552 Q16 11 5 3 0 2 0.359 Q17 4 5 6 1 5 0.289 Q18 8 2 5 0 7 0.872* Q19 6 3 1 4 8 0.667** Assignments Q20 9 5 1 3 3 0.263 Q21 13 3 3 2 1 -0.053 Q22 9 6 3 0 4 0.616 Q23 5 4 3 2 5 0.947* Q46 5 2 1 3 11 0.667** Q47 7 2 7 1 5 0.553 ‘Significant at the 5% level. “ Significant at the 10% level Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. Table 16 Correlation Results—Female Private School Students M ain Variable Scale (l=not important, 5 = * very important) Seale/Category 1 2 3 4 5 Q33 6 3 5 3 3 Spearman’s Other Variables Coefficient Curriculum Q9 10 4 3 1 0 0.671“ Q10 8 5 2 1 1 0.688“ QH 11 4 1 1 1 0.50 Q12 12 3 2 1 0 0.671“ Teachers Q13 7 1 5 2 3 0.894* Q14 8 3 3 1 2 0.803* Q15 14 3 0 1 0 0.344 Q16 7 3 3 3 5 0.50 Q17 5 4 6 2 4 0.803* Q18 9 3 2 0 4 0.447 Q19 1 1 8 4 7 -0.057 Assignments Q20 9 1 5 1 1 1.0* Q21 10 1 4 1 2 0.917* Q22 12 2 2 0 2 0.750“ Q23 5 3 2 3 4 0.229 Social & Family Q46 3 0 4 3 7 0.057 Q47 10 1 6 0 0 0.917* ‘Significant at the 5% level. “ Significant at the 10% level Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. 97 Table 17 Correlation Results—Female Public School Students Main Variable Scale (l=not important, 5= very im portant) Spearman’s Coefficient Scale/Category 1 2 3 4 5 Q33 23 6 4 5 6 Other Variables Curriculum Q9 7 11 9 4 13 -0.154 Q10 10 9 7 7 9 0.973* Q ll 17 6 4 6 10 0.921* Q12 18 4 7 3 12 0.616 Teachers Q13 14 4 5 3 17 0.462 Q14 14 10 5 3 11 0.872* Q15 13 5 11 2 13 0.553 Q16 20 6 6 1 11 0763“ Q17 15 4 5 8 13 0.564 Q18 19 6 7 2 11 0.616 Q19 17 1 8 7 12 0.462 Assignments Q20 18 5 10 3 8 0.359 Q21 26 6 6 0 6 0.688 Q22 21 7 4 2 3 0.616“ Q23 19 5 5 6 8 0.710“ Q46 8 8 4 7 17 0.763“ Q47 19 8 9 3 5 0.359 ‘Significant at the 5% level. “ Significant at the 10% level Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. 98 Table 18 Correlation Results—female Science Students (Private Schools) Main Variable Scale (l=not important, 5= very important) Scale/Category 1 2 3 4 5 Q33 5 2 4 2 0 Spearman’s Other Variables Coefficient Curriculum Q9 9 2 1 1 0 0.763“ Q10 7 3 2 0 0 0.763“ Qll 10 2 1 0 0 0.763“ Q12 8 2 2 1 0 0.921* Teachers Q13 5 1 5 1 1 0.885* Q14 6 1 3 1 2 0.684** Q15 11 1 0 1 0 0.541 Q16 6 2 2 1 2 0.573 Q17 5 3 3 1 1 0.865* Q18 6 2 1 0 4 0.205 Q19 0 0 6 3 4 -0.237 Q20 8 1 2 1 0 1.0* Q21 8 1 3 0 1 0.762“ Q22 11 1 1 0 0 0.865* Q23 3 3 1 2 3 -0.229 Q46 2 0 3 3 5 -0.50 ‘Significant at the 5% level. “ Significant at the 10% level Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. 99 Table 19 Correlation Results—female Science Students (Public Schools) Main Variable Scale (l=not important, 5= very important) Spearman’s Coefficient Scale/Category 1 2 3 4 5 Q33 3 2 0 3 4 Other Variables Curriculum Q9 2 5 3 1 1 -0.816* Q10 4 3 2 2 1 -0.342 Qll 5 2 2 0 3 0.368 Q12 7 3 1 0 1 0.1053 Teachers Q13 5 1 3 0 2 -0.103 Q14 4 1 2 0 4 0.395 Q15 3 1 4 0 4 0.0 Q16 6 1 1 0 4 0.368 Q17 4 2 2 1 3 0.368 Q18 7 2 0 1 2 0.526 Q19 2 0 5 2 3 -0.0526 Assignments Q20 7 1 2 1 1 -0.287 Q21 7 2 2 0 1 -0.368 Q22 5 3 2 0 1 -0.308 Q23 2 3 2 2 3 0.296 Q46 1 3 1 0 7 0.289 •Significant at the 5% level. Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. Table 20 Correlation Results—female Literature Students (Private Schools) 100 Main Variable Scale (l=not important, 5= very important) Scale/Category 1 2 3 4 5 Q33 1 1 1 1 3 Spearman’s Other Variables Coefficient Curriculum Q9 1 2 2 0 0 -0.162 Q10 1 2 0 1 1 0.028 Qll 1 2 0 1 1 0.105 Q12 4 1 0 0 0 0.135 Teachers Q13 2 0 0 1 2 -0.162 Q14 2 2 0 0 0 0.649 Q15 3 2 0 0 0 0.527 Q16 1 1 1 2 3 0.541 Q17 0 1 3 1 3 0.105 Q18 3 1 1 0 0 0.527 Q19 1 1 2 1 3 0.105 Assignments Q20 1 0 3 0 1 0.527 Q21 2 0 1 1 1 0.738** Q22 1 1 1 0 2 0.541 Q23 2 0 1 1 1 0.825* Q46 1 0 1 0 2 0.108 Q47 3 0 1 0 0 -0.459 '•Significant at the 10% level Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. Table 21 Correlation Results—Female Literature Students (Public Schools) Main Variable Scale (l=not important, 5= very important) Spearman’s Coefficient Scale/Category 1 2 3 4 5 Q33 20 4 4 2 2 Other Variables Curriculum Q9 5 6 6 3 12 -0.162 Q10 6 6 5 5 8 -0.028 Qll 12 4 2 6 7 0.105 Q12 11 1 6 3 11 0.135 Teachers Q13 9 3 2 3 15 -0.162 Q14 10 9 3 3 7 0.648 Q15 10 4 7 2 9 0.527 Q16 14 5 5 1 7 0.540 Q17 11 2 3 7 10 0.105 Q18 12 4 7 1 9 0.527 Q19 15 1 3 5 9 0.105 Assignments Q20 11 4 8 2 7 0.737“ Q21 19 4 4 0 5 0.541 Q22 16 4 2 2 2 0.825* Q23 17 2 3 4 5 0.105 Social & Family Q46 7 5 3 7 10 -0.459 Q47 15 7 6 2 3 0.948* ‘Significant at the 5% level. “ Significant at the 10% level Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. 102 Table 22 Correlation Results— Male Science Students (Yes Q7) Main Variable Scale (l=not im portant, 5= very important) Spearman’s Coefficient Scale/Category 1 2 3 4 5 Q33 1 1 3 7 12 Other Variables Curriculum Q9 4 3 10 7 8 0.667“ Q10 2 4 9 13 3 0.308 Qn 8 9 4 4 6 -0.631 Q12 5 4 10 4 7 0.289 Teachers Q13 5 6 7 5 9 0.50 Q14 11 5 8 4 2 -0.821* Q15 14 2 9 3 4 -0.102 Q16 9 8 3 6 4 -0.667“ Q17 4 5 6 7 10 0.975* Q18 12 6 3 4 7 -0.205 QI9 1 5 3 7 14 0.821* Assignments Q20 4 11 3 5 8 0.051 Q21 8 5 9 6 4 -0.410 Q22 6 9 6 4 6 -0.573 Q23 6 6 7 5 8 0.368 Q46 7 5 0 1 7 0.026 Q47 9 7 7 2 0 -0.921* ‘Significant at the 5% level. “ Significant at the 10% level Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. 103 Table 23 Correlation Results—Male Science Students (No Q7) Main Variable Scale (l=not important, 5= very important) Spearman’s Coefficient Scale/Category 1 2 3 4 5 Q33 0 0 6 5 12 O ther Variables Curriculum Q9 5 5 7 3 4 -0.158 Q10 6 2 7 7 2 -0.081 Qn 12 2 7 1 0 -0.615 Q12 7 3 5 2 7 0.237 Teachers Q13 5 7 3 4 4 -0.789“ Q14 9 3 4 1 7 0.051 Q15 6 3 6 0 6 0.344 Q16 8 6 4 1 5 -0.564 Q17 5 2 4 5 6 0.55 Q18 8 4 2 3 6 -0.308 Q19 4 2 9 4 5 0.815* Assignments Q20 6 3 6 3 4 0.162 Q21 12 3 6 1 2 -0.41 Q22 9 1 7 3 3 0.0 Q23 3 8 6 1 4 -0.051 Q46 2 2 5 3 10 1.0* ‘Significant at the 5% level. “ Significant at the 10% level Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. 104 Curriculum Questions1 1 Q9: High school curriculum prepared me well for college. Q10: Textbooks were easy to read & understand. Q11: High school textbooks stimulated my intellectual curiosity and love for learning. Q12:1 needed extra help to understand high school material. Teacher Questions Q13: High school lectures/tutorials helped me understand high school material. Q14: The style of teaching was that of rote memorization. Q15: Teachers did not give clear explanations of the material assigned. Q16: Teachers knew my strong and weak points. Q17: Teachers helped students think for themselves. Q18: Teachers did not encourage students to ask questions & express their opinions. Q19: Teachers had a positive impact on my high school GPA. 1 1 All of the following questions prefaced the caveat “and that influenced my choice of major.” ! i i Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. 105 Assignment Questions: Q20: High school assignments were designed to stimulate and develop my knowledge. Q21: Assignments were enjoyable and intellectually stimulating. Q22: Assignments were designed to make me think. Q23: Assignments helped me obtain the score (GPA) required to enter the college of my choice. Family & Friends: Q46: My parents show a keen interest in my high school education. Q47: My friends influenced my choice of major. Main Variable Q33: My high school positively influenced my test score, which helped me enter my field of study. The correlation results in Table 11 (all students) show that “curriculum” overall did not have a particularly strong effect on student’s choice of major; that is, students did not perceive their high school curricula to be of added value in obtaining the Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. 106 required score to enter into the major of their choice1 2 . More particularly, the results indicate that textbooks were not easily understood (Q10) and that extra help was needed to understand the curriculum material (Q12). While the correlation between Q33 (Main variable), Q9 and Q11 are positive, they are not substantially high. Nevertheless, they indicate that a change in the overall curriculum and textbook content can improve students’ scores by 10%.1 3 From the other variables grouped under “teachers”, several correlation outcomes show interesting results. Students believed that rote memorization had a strong negative impact on their choice of major (Q14)1 4 . Similarly, the overall teaching methodology in terms of explaining the material assigned had a negative effect in terms of the choice of major for students (Q15). Finally, the little encouragement students received from their teachers in terms of asking questions and expressing opinions had a highly unfavorable effect on students’ decision of major (Q18). Nevertheless, students overall believed that teachers helped them think for themselves (Q17) and had a positive effect on their GPA (Q19). These high correlation coefficients, as we will see later, are influenced by science majors, and differ between the various student groups. 1 2 The five-scale response to the dependent variable (Q33) has been correlated with the corresponding five-scale response to the other variables/questions. Thus from Table 11, for example, we correlate the sequence {36,13,21,22,40} of Q33 with the sequence of, say, Q9 which is {32,27,35,15,28}, along with other series o f various responses. The correlation coefficient is measured by Spearman’s coefficient (the right-hand most column). The explanation is similar for all other correlation tables. 1 3 Note that Q9 reflects the opinion of students on the overall curriculum and is not the average of the curriculum group of questions. 1 4 Note that the question was asked in the negative sense thus resulting in a positive correlation. Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. 107 Other variables grouped under ‘assignment’ (Q20-Q23) reflect a mostly negative but weak relationship ranging from 10 to 20 percent in terms of their negative effect on students’ choice of major. Other variables, indirectly related to school, also had an impact on the choice of major.1 5 For example, keen interest by parents in students’ education (Q46) positively affected students in choosing their majors, while the influence of friends presented a negative, albeit, small effect on the students’ choice. The correlation results, however, begin to show some differences among the different groups and sub-groups of students. For example, a comparison between the correlation results for male and female students (Tables 12 & 13) shows that with respect to curriculum, teachers and assignments, female students differ significantly from their male counterparts. Female students’ main variable (Q33) correlated noticeably higher with respect to questions relating to curriculum and assignments. This may be attributed to the fact that, unlike their male counterparts, a considerable number of female students (29%) attended private high schools. This might account for why female students rate these variables higher than their male counterparts. On the other hand, teachers had mixed reviews between the two sexes. Males rated questions 14,15 and 18 higher than females did. These questions relate to the teaching style, explanation of the text material and encouragement of questions respectively. On the other hand, for questions 13 & 16 (questions pertaining to 1 5 The only variable in this group that has a positive and relatively high correlation coefficient is Q23, which is an acknowledgment by students that, while assignments were not in-and-of-themselves creative, they contributed to their grades. Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. 108 teacher lectures and teachers knowledge of student’s weak and strong points) males scored much lower than females. This mixed review among male and female students is expected since students must have experienced different teachers with different teaching styles. When asked the generic question, however, on whether teachers helped students think for themselves (Q17) and whether they helped them achieve the required score (Q19), both male and female responses were positively correlated.1 6 There is an interesting result with regards to the (indirect) influence of family and friends on students’ choice of major. For males, family involvement correlated highly and positively with obtaining the first choice of major while the influence of friends correlated negatively implying that friends can be a deterrent or obstacle towards achieving academic results.1 7 Females, on the other hand, had the opposite results. Parents’ involvement correlated weaker with little influence on the first choice of major, while friends’ influence correlated positively and highly. This dichotomy may be attributed to cultural factors whereby parents emphasize the male role as the family’s main breadwinner.1 8 In addition, there is a positive correlation between the choice of major and the influence of friends for female students, indicating, perhaps, more cooperation between female, than male, students. Tables 14 and 15 show the correlation results for science and literature male students. While there seems to be a general agreement among male students about 1 6 Male students rated question 19 twice as highly as female students. Again, this high correlation for both groups is an acknowledgment that teachers undoubtedly had an important effect on students’ grades. 7 This can be expected as students compete for their first choice of major. 1 8 This may also reflect the reality of the job market, where women’s employment is low compared to that of men. Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. 109 the curriculum there is one major difference with regards to question 11; science students found that textbooks do not stimulate their curiosity nor their imagination, while literature majors found the opposite to be the case. And, while they agreed on the overall influence of curriculum, science majors rated it lower in terms of affecting their first choice of major (Q9). Furthermore, literature students indicated that they required external help to understand the overall high school material than their science counterparts. On the other hand, teachers got high marks from science male students in terms of questions 14,15 and 17 (rote memorization, explanation of textbook material and encouraging students to think for themselves)1 9 , but low marks in terms of question 16 relating to the teacher’s knowledge of strong and weak points of their students. In addition, while science majors did not rate rote memorization as unfavorably as literature majors did, some of them still believed that teachers were characterized by this style of teaching. However, literature students—perhaps because of the nature of their majors—overwhelmingly pointed to rote memorization as the style of teaching. With respect to assignments, science students differed noticeably with their literature counterparts. The latter rated favorably the assignment variables, especially Q23, which relates the effect of assignments on students’ GPA. Question 21, however, has a near-zero correlation coefficient indicating that literature male students view assignments as neither enjoyable nor 1 9 Note that correlation to questions 14 and 15 are negative indicating a favorable response. Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. 110 stimulating.2 0 Science male students, on the other hand, showed negative correlations for all the assignment variables indicating that they did not see them as helpful in attaining their first choice of major. Finally, while the involvement of parents is positive and high for literature majors, they were unexpectedly negative, albeit weakly correlated, for science male students. Furthermore, the influence of friends correlates positively and high with the former and negatively with the latter. Again, this can be attributed to the higher competition among science students. Tables 16 and 17 provide the correlation results for females from private schools compared to those from public schools. In general, females in both private and public high schools rated curriculum, teachers and assignments as positively affecting their ability to obtain their first choice of major.2 1 However, private school students differed on two important questions (Q19 and Q23).2 2 The correlation with respect to Q19 was negligible, indicating that female students from private schools viewed teachers’ contribution as irrelevant in terms of their academic achievement. Additionally, these students rated low the ability of their high school assignments to impact positively on their GPA.2 3 With respect to the influence of family and friends, female students from public schools indicate that parents’ involvement is 2 0 If assignments are enjoyable and stimulating, it is expected that this will have a positive effect on students’ choice o f major. The fact that the correlation coefficient is near zero shows that assignments were neither. 2 1 Questions 14, 15, 18 and 21 are exceptions. 2 2 Note that both o f these questions refer to the direct effect o f teachers and assignments on the students’ Grade Point Average. 2 3 While these results are more expected from public than private schools, they may be due to the students’ inability to identify with their schools and teachers. Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. I l l much more significant, while the influence of friends is more significant for private school students who have a more socially knit group than their public 24 counterparts. A comparison between female science students in private and public high schools in Tables 18 and 19 may provide some indicators on the overall advantages of private education. Private school students rated the curriculum and assignment variables much more favorably than public school students did. With respect to teachers, however, they differed in their assessments. In general, private school students rated teachers better than public students did. For example, teachers were given high rating with regards to lecturing, their knowledge of students’ weak and strong points and their efforts to help students think for themselves, encourage questions and help them obtain better grades for entering their first choice of majors (questions 13,16,17,18 and 19 respectively). But while both type of female students rated teachers low with regards to their impact on the students’ GPA (Q19), science students from public schools rated teachers relatively lower. Finally, science students from private schools indicated that family involvement was absent, while parents of female science students from public 2 4 One reason for this tighter group among friends is that students from private schools are smaller. As such they tend to identify better with their members. Additionally, because o f their social status, the families o f students in private schools have a higher chance o f direct or indirect association through business relations and even marriage. This provides for a closer relationship among the students and, therefore, a higher chance o f cooperation. On the other hand, because public school students are, in general, not closer as a group, they tend to complement their lower association with students through higher involvement with their parents/families. Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. 112 schools were more involved in their daughters’ studies2 5 . This may be a result of the degree of parents’ reliance on private schools. That is, parents of students in public schools may feel that they have to compensate for the lack of quality of public schools through either their personal involvement or through hiring extra help (e.g. private lessons).2 6 Alternatively, this can be a result of the closer relationship between females in private schools where it is customary to work together on school material (see also footnote 108 above). Additionally, the influence of friends correlated highly and significantly for science females from private schools, but had no effect for those students from female students from public schools. This is consistent with earlier results for the female student sample, which shows female students to be more affected by social factors in their determination of choice of major than their male counterparts especially those in the field of science. Tables 20 and 21 show the correlation results for female literature students from private and public schools respectively. Both groups have similar ratings for curriculum, teachers and assignments. However, while assignments scored well overall, curriculum and teachers had low overall scores in both groups especially with respect to their effect on preparation for college and students’ GPA (Q9 andQ19 2 5 Note that parents o f female students showed less involvement, overall, than their male counterparts. This, as was explained earlier, may due to cultural factors that put more emphasis on males as the main source o f family income. 2 6 As can be seen from the correlation coefficients o f question 12 (Q12) for both groups, female science students from private and public schools needed extra help with school material. This help, for private school students, is more likely to come from private tutoring/teaching. For public school students, on the other hand, this help is more likely to come from their parents’ involvement. Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. 113 respectively).2 7 Finally, a comparison between family and friends’ influence shows that the families of both school cohorts display little interest in their schoolwork. On the other hand, the influence of friends is high and significant for public school students, while negative and insignificant for private school students.2 8 This result in not inconsistent with the earlier results from female science students in private and public high schools (Tables 18 and 19 respectively). In both cases, female students are more influenced by their peers than their male counterparts. This is partly due to cultural reasons, but is also a result of the absence of societal (and market) pressures to compete for jobs, which are mostly reserved for the male population. Gauging student’s efforts from a survey sample without having data on students’ test results or GPA scores is quite a challenge2 9 especially for the Saudi case where even students who attained a score higher than the required minimum to enter into their first choice of major might not have been admitted due to a lack of space in the universities, human error and/or cronyism.3 0 Nevertheless, one may cautiously assume that those students who answered “yes” to question 7, which asks 2 7 While one would have expected students from private schools to rate their teachers more favorably than students from public schools, since teachers represent the major distinction between private and public institutions, these similar ratings may indicate the general lack o f identification with teachers among the female literature sample vis-a-vis their science major counterparts. This, in turn, may be attributed to the feet that science students—who are more competitive than literature students— depend more on their teachers than literature majors do. 2 8 Note that the reason why the correlation coefficient for female private school students is negative is because students did not respond to all the answers listed (see Q46 in Table 20). 2 9 My efforts at collecting a sufficient sample o f transcripts to match them with students for interviews were unsuccessful because o f administrative problems with some universities. 3 0 When students are requested to provide their top four or five choices, there is a good likelihood for human error and cronyism to enter into the allocation process. Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. 114 if students were able to obtain their first choice of majors, exerted more effort than those who answered “no” to that same question. Tables 22 and 23 compare these two types of students-both groups have majored in science. The results show that while students who spent more effort (those who answered yes to Q7) generally gave more favorable responses to curriculum, teachers and assignments questions, they also agreed with their counterparts on several other questions which rated education unfavorably. For example, both ranked questions 11 (textbook quality), 12 (extra help needed for school work), 16 (teachers relationship with students), 21 and 22 (regarding assignment quality) unfavorably. In conclusion, some correlation results varied between student groups and subgroups. The following outline captures the main points of the correlation analysis: 1. Students from the various groups seem to agree that the curriculum and assignments do not contribute effectively to their grades and their attainment of their first choice of major. 2. Differences exist between students with regards to rating their teachers. In general, male students credited teachers for their positive influence on their GPA, while, generally, they did not credit them with “knowing their students”, or, “encouraging discussions in class”. On the other hand, female students did not credit their teachers for positively affecting their high school GPA, and regarded their style of teaching as that of rote memorization. Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. 115 3. With respect to social (family and friends) influence on students’ score, we found that male students, and more particularly science majors, received special attention from their parents and, because of competition to the limited seats in science colleges, they were not influenced by their friends. On the other hand, the case is almost reversed for female students, where family support had a mixed rating, but where the influence of friends was high. 4. Finally, students who spent more effort rated the overall school factors more favorably than those with less effort. This is to be expected because by putting the blame on the school, those who did not make the effort were able to externalize their shortcomings. Or, this result could have come about because those who spent effort tended to identify more with the school than those who did not. In addition to understanding the quality factors of high school education and their effect on the choice of major, we want to ascertain whether there is a difference between the various student groups in terms of their perception of the effect of curriculum, teachers and assignments; the major factors impacting the students’ GPA and, consequently, their first choice of major. Testing the differences in the response between the various student groups will help confirm our findings. Tables 2 4 ,2 5 ,2 6 and 27 below display the result to the following null hypotheses: Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. 116 1. Are there significant differences between student groups (between males and females) in regards to the effect of high school curriculum, teachers and assignments on the choice of major (tables 24,25 & 26)? 2. Are there significant differences between students who were accepted into their first choice of majors and those who did not in regards to knowledge about the labor market (Table 27)? The findings of tables 24-26 show that there are no significant differences found between the various groups of students with respect to the general categories of the various educational quality indicators such as curriculum, teachers and assignments. This indicates that students, in general, tend to agree about the descriptive and correlation analyses discussed above for Table 11. When taking some questions individually, however, some results are different; for example, science majors who were able to enter the college of their first choice significantly differed from their female counterparts in their assessment of teachers as having a major impact in that outcome (Table 26). Similarly, male students differed significantly from their female students in their assessment of curriculum (Q10) as it pertains to the impact of textbooks on their scores.3 1 Table 27 shows that for students in general, the second null hypothesis stated above is rejected; that is, male and female students did not significantly differ 3 1 These differences come about because female science students who attended private schools rated such factors relatively more favorably than their male counterparts who attended public schools. This difference also exists with female students who attended public high schools. Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. 117 about their knowledge of the job market indicating that sources of labor market information are inadequate and/or there is a good possibility of a mismatch between students and majors. Table 24 Statistical Test Results of the Survey— All Students Category Male Students Fern Students Test Results N n Chi2 P Curriculum 75 60 1.98 0.37 Teachers 76 63 0.07 0.964 Assignments 75 59 1.931 0.3806 Table 25 Statistical Test Results—S&T and H&SS Students (who obtained their first choice of majors) Category Male Students Fem. Students Test Results N n Chi2 P Curriculum 46 41 2.23 0.32 Teachers 46 40 0.409 0.81 Assignments 46 40 2.184 0.34 Table 26 Statistical Test Results—S&T Students (who obtained their first choice of majors) Category Male Students Fem. Students Test Results N n Chi2 P Curriculum Q10 31 23 1.396 0.497 Teachers 31 23 0.38 0.82 Teachers Q19 30 24 7.22 0.027* Assignments 31 29 0.146 0.92 Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. 118 Lastly, the results in Table 26 show that we fail to reject the null hypothesis for science students indicating no difference between the two groups. This is expected since students in the same general field tend to believe that S&T fields are prestigious and, by implication, are in demand3 2 . Table 27 Statistical Test Results—Knowledge of Market Demand Category Male Students Fem. Students Test Results N n C h i" P 1 . Knowledge of M arket Demand 76 53 4.38 0.036* Category Science Male (Yes toQ7) Science Male (No toQ7) Chi2 P 2. Knowledge of Market Demand 33 24 1.82 0.17 * Statistically significant at the 5% level. (1. All Students. 2. Male Students admitted to first choice of majors) Test Results Managers and Employees What we need now is to statistically confirm the aforementioned descriptive results for managers and employees in the private sector. Table 28 shows a list of 3 2 An engineer in Saudi Arabia for example is not addressed as ‘Mr. X ’ but ‘Engineer X ’. Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. 119 perceptions between managers and employees in the private sector. These reflect four main research questions/null hypotheses: 1. Are there significant differences between the levels of technical skill of Saudi employees as seen by managers and employees? 2. Are there significant differences between managers and employees about the perception of work effort? 3. Are there significant differences between managers and employees in terms of obtaining jobs through cronyism? 4. Are there significant differences between managers and employees in regards to the difficulty in discharging Saudis for under performance?3 3 Table 28 Statistical Results—Managers and Employees CATEGORY EMPLOYEES MANAGERS TEST RESULTS n n CHI2 P Computer Skills 50 21 3.84 0.037* Analytical Skills 51 22 3.099 0.078 Work Effort 46 22 9.42 0.002* Cronyism 46 24 9.36 0.002* Difficult to Discharge Saudis 36 24 6.522 0.004* (*) Indicates statistical significance at the 5% level 3 3 The reference here is to all employees-Saudi and expatriate. Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. 120 Question 1 above is answered through two proxy measures, computer and analytical skills. As seen from Table 28 above, in both cases the null hypothesis is rejected in favor of the alternative; that is, there exist significant differences between employees and managers in their perceptions of the general technical skill level of Saudi employees. In both cases, managers put more emphasis in viewing Saudi employees as technically unskilled3 4 . The same holds true for perceptions on work effort and cronyism where the null hypothesis is rejected in favor of the alternative with managers putting more emphasis on the former than employees, suggesting that Saudi workers’ efforts are not viewed favorably by managers, while the employees’ perception put more emphasis on the latter suggesting that cronyism is more prevalent than managers suggest. Finally, the results in Table28 show that employees and managers differ in their perception of the difficulty in discharging Saudi employees for under performance. The null hypothesis is rejected in favor of the alternative. That is, managers perceive the suspension of Saudis for under performing on the job as more difficult than do the employees. 34 On the other hand, a similar test for expatriate labor and managers fails to reject the null hypothesis, suggesting the possibility o f agreement that expatriates are more skilled than their Saudi counterpart as confirmed by the results in the descriptive analysis above. Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. Managers and Senior Students 121 A comparison of the views of managers and students who have sought jobs in the past will help provide some insight into potential gaps that may exist between the private sector and the students and thus shed some light on the current problem of unemployment in the presence of a large expatriate labor force in the private sector3 5 . Table 29 shows a comparison of students and mangers’ perception with respect to factors hypothesized to be major reasons for why Saudis are not as successful as foreign laborers in obtaining and keeping private sector jobs. The null hypothesis is that there are no significant differences between the perceptions of Saudi university seniors who have sought jobs in the private sector and private sector managers with respect to factors that impact the latter in turning down Saudi job applicants3 6 . The results in Table 29 show that while both managers and students agree (or fail to disagree) on issues such as insufficient analytical skills, insufficient education for available job positions, lack of appropriate major for the job and the availability of more qualified expatriates competing for the same positions, they differ significantly in other aspects. In particular, managers perceive the following as more important than students; technical skills, proficiency in English, lower wages by foreign competitors, work ethic, demand for a high salary, preference for expatriate labor and the difficulty of discharging Saudi employees once they are hired. 3 5 These are senior university male students who have sought employment during their senior year. 3 6 These factors are listed in the 1s t column o f Table29. Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. Table 29 Statistical Test Results—Managers & Senior Students REASON FOR NOT GETTING A JOB STUDENTS (n=40) MANAGERS (n=29) TEST RESULTS M ean Std. Deviation Mean Std. Deviation t P Insufficient Technical Skills 3.89 1.1 4.01 1 -3.56 0.010** Insufficient Analytical Skills 3.9 1.2 4.03 1.1 -1.74 0.075** Insufficient Education for the Job Position 3.8 1.1 3.7 1 -1.74 0.085** Lack of Appropriate Major 3.68 1.18 3.84 0.99 -1.72 0.081** More Qualified Expatriates 3.9 1.3 3.88 1.17 -0.2 0.0889** Insufficient English Communication Skills 3.83 1.2 4.2 .93 -3.31 0.002* Lower Wages by Foreign Competitor 4.4 1.034 4.2 1.17 2.3 0.024* W ork Ethics 3.52 1.32 4.2 .99 -2.9 0.005* Demand for High Salary 4.06 4.38 4.4 .98 -2.59 0.02* Preference for Expatriate Labor 4.04 1.4 3 1.29 6.75 0.000* (*) Indicates statistical significance at the 5% level. (**) Indicates statistical significance at the 1 0 % level Note: Results are based on a five point ordinal scale with 1= not important & 5 = very important Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. Summary of Inferential Analysis 123 We have seen that students viewed their high school education as generally lacking in terms of helping them achieve the required score to enter their top choice of majors. In almost all aspects of school quality—curriculum, teachers and assignments—students, overall, indicated that these factors were not instrumental in their admittance to their first choice of majors, while science students did favor some aspects of teacher quality. On the other hand, the survey for employees and managers in the private sector has helped to show that while managers stand ready to hire Saudis who are equally or closely qualified compared to their foreign competitors, they seem to have the lingering impression—brought on from their past experiences—that their Saudi employees are not technically skilled, and that they are hard to discharge should they under perform on the job. Finally, the comparison test conducted between private sector managers and senior university students—who have been seeking jobs during their senior year of college—shows that there are significant differences in the perception between managers and students in terms of the level of technical skills and field of major required by students, the proficiency of English, expatriates’ lower wages, demand for a good work ethic, and the difficulty of discharging Saudis. These differences serve to confirm that while ‘traditional’ factors leading to choosing foreign labor over nationals, such as lower expatriate wages and a different work ethic, continue to Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. 124 be important, they generally are seen less important with managers than with students. What is more important with managers, however, are technical and analytical skills as well as the field of study required by the private sector. Thus the above analyses help to underscore the proposition that education quality in Saudi Arabia represents a major barrier to the employment of Saudi youth in the private sector. CONCLUSION The earlier chapters have presented a study of the quality of education in the GCC states. I have shown that the available data, scarce as they are, suggest that despite their riches the GCC countries are lacking in terms of quality of education when compared with developed and even developing countries. This can be partly attributed to the difficulty in managing the transition of the educational system from one that was geared to producing government employees with no technical skill to another aimed at providing adequately skilled private sector workers. This has resulted in a reactive rather than a proactive implementation of the strategic plans, resulting more in quantity than quality aspects of education. Consequently, the stages o f development were not concomitant with the educational needs demanded by the private sector and the changing technologies, thus creating the subsequent gap between demand and supply of jobs that was inevitably filled by better skilled expatriates. In addition, there have not been any appropriate communication Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. 125 channels between government, private-sector companies and academic institutions to help make the education system more efficient in producing students with skills that are demanded by the market. Instead the political and economic structure that prompted a welfare state at the time of the oil windfall created a national workforce that is dependent on the government for jobs and a private sector that depends on foreign workers and saw nationals as a threat to their competitiveness. The perception of governments as last resort employers has had a negative impact on the overall economy, partly through education. It gave nationals an incentive to major mostly in H&SS and neglect S&T fields. As the economy moved through hard times coupled with a change in technology especially in the dominant service sector, an increasing need for technical and analytical jobs began to become apparent in the GCC region. However, the lack of preparation has left nationals unprepared to take on skilled jobs, and that left a vacuum that, again, only expatriate labor was able to fill. The challenge for GCC countries and Saudi Arabia in particular is to seriously address the current unemployment problem of their youth. Among the answers is a comprehensive renovation of the structure, the content and tools of education that would empower teachers and students, release their creative potential and revitalize the GCC economies. These measures have increasingly been coming into focus as the various GCC National Reports on Education show. The challenge, Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. however, is the implementation of these ideas and bringing them to fruition. That will be the litmus test for the advancement of the quality of education in the GCC countries and indeed in the Arab world. In the meantime, short-term solutions must be adopted, not only for economic reasons, but also for political ones as well. In the next chapter we will discuss these solutions by providing a general equilibrium model to ascertain the welfare issues in choosing between two policy instruments, mainly quotas vs. taxes on foreign labor. Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. 127 Chapter IV THE WELFARE EFFECTS OF QUOTA VS TAXES ON FOREIGN LABOR Introduction One of the main characteristics of private firms in the Gulf Cooperation Council Countries (GCC) is their heavy reliance on foreign labor. This is due, in part, to the lower wages and higher skills of migrant labor compared to those of then- domestic counterpart. Another characteristic is the existence of a ‘kafeel’ (literally sponsor or guarantor) recruitment system by which foreigners are permitted to work in the GCC countries only if they are under the sponsorship of a national. Generally, the law stipulates that the ‘kafeel’ and employer of foreign workers must be one and the same. However, it has become increasingly common practice recently to trade in foreign labor visas. That is, the kafeel would sell the visas of his foreign workers to other sponsors either directly or indirectly (through a recruitment agency).3 7 While consistent with the large existing dependence on foreign workers, expatriates are allowed into the country but their entry is highly regulated. Most countries require an employer to file an application for the permit to hire foreign workers, to pay the cost of their transport to the country, and to wait substantial periods of time until the permits are given.3 8 Workers are then prohibited from 3 7 Many recruitment agencies have grown in the past two decades in the GCC countries with corresponding offices overseas especially in Asia. 3 8 The restrictions on the use o f foreign workers have been getting stronger over time. Programs o f Saudiazation (Kuwaitization etc.) have become increasingly popular among nationals. While the restrictions take numerous different forms, a relatively common one is simply requiring employers Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. 128 changing employers without consent of the original employer. Various measures are employed to prevent workers from bringing their families with them.3 9 When employment ceases, foreign workers are often required to return to their country of origin and apply for a new visa. Those caught without a visa are increasingly being penalized, in part, to avoid abuse of such workers of domestic employers who might try to exploit such workers by threatening to turn them in to the authorities. While foreign workers are strongly discouraged by various mechanisms from unionizing, nationals are also discouraged from doing so. In principle, foreign workers receive the same protections as workers of national origin, in those countries where minimum wage legislation exists such as Kuwait, the minimum wage rate for foreign workers is but a small fraction of that for nationals (Datta, Nugent & Samman 2000). With unemployment rising among their nationals in the past decade, the GCC States have been attempting to tackle the unemployment problem, viewed as having serious political consequences, through the nationalization of employment in the private sector; that is, replacing foreign workers with nationals. However, to date the majority of the workers in the private sector are foreigners, while unemployment among nationals continues to rise4 0 . One reason for the unemployment problem in the private sector has been the traditional role of the government as the employer of last resort. This allows those who are seeking employment in the private sector to refuse any offer that is below subsidy wages provided by the government. (usually only large ones) to commit themselves to progressively increasing the percentages o f nationals in their work forces. 3 9 A common one is to require proof o f financial support for dependents at levels that are higher than the worker can expect to make. An even simpler mechanism is by hiring only persons who are single. 4 0 See Tablel on page 2. Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. 129 Another reason is the existence of a rent-seeking market that allows private firms to continue to hire expatriates in return for monetary rewards for government bureaucrats. This market exists through the interaction of firms—with incentives to increase their profits—and government bureaucrats—with an incentive to seek rents. But while the government has positive preferences for monetary rewards, through its sizable bureaucratic body, it is not powerless and can crack down on operators of the rent-seeking market in order to reduce the government’s preference for such rents4 1 . The government’s objective is to maximize the welfare function of society, which includes both the private firms and the community at large, knowing that there exists a bureaucratic body that it must also consider. Thus in its endeavor to increase employment among its citizens, and, at the same time, allow for the profitability of firms and the existence of bureaucrats in its midst, the government acts as a social planner. Given a positive preference to monetary rewards on the part of the government, a quota system can be welfare worsening or welfare-improving depending on the value of the government preferences, which can also be seen as an index of bureaucratic corruption. In addition, in such a rent-seeking set-up, a tax imposed on the private firm will lead to a worsening of the social welfare, but its effect is less severe than that of strong preferences. 4 1 We assume that the government incurs no cost in cracking down on rent-seeking bureaucrats. Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. 130 We make the following assumptions that are in keeping with the ‘stylized facts’ of the GCC economies4 2 : 1. Private firms are competitive and heterogeneous in their labor composition, employing both domestic and foreign labor. 2. The wage of the domestic worker is institutionally higher than that of a foreigner. Both wages are assumed to be exogenous. 3. There exists an unemployed portion of the domestic labor force that has a reservation wage higher than that of foreign workers. 4. A ‘kafeel’ has a license (through government approval) to import foreign labor. The ‘kafeel’ can be an individual or a firm and has control over the movement of foreign labor4 3 . 5. Laying off domestic workers is infrequent and costly to the firms. 6. The policy objective of the government is to raise the percentage of domestic workers in the private sector. 7. Within the government apparatus there is a bureaucratic body with a positive preference to monetary rewards that are channeled to an overseas bank4 4 . 8. There is no foreign labor unemployment in the GCC economies. All migrant workers leave the country if they are laid off. 9. Free labor mobility is assumed for domestic but not for foreign workers. 4 2 Additional stylized facts include the dependency on oil, high employment o f nationals by the government and high remittance by foreign labor. These facts, however, are not directly pertinent to our model. 4 3 In this paper, w e will consider the firm and the ‘kafeel’ to be the same. 4 4 That is, the money is not used for productive activities domestically. Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. 131 The Model The Firm Define the net income (profit) of a competitive representative firm as4 5 : n - F(Ld,Lf )- wd La - wfLf -bLf (1-1) where F{La ,Lf ) is a general CES production function with the usual concavity characteristics in both arguments and * F[ 4 6 ; Ld& Z^are the domestic and foreign labor demanded by the firm respectively; wd& wf are the domestic and foreign workers’ wages respectively, and ibis the monetary reward. Thus, the choice variables for the firm are the domestic and foreign labor. Wages for both types of labor are given, however, the wage of nationals are kept institutionally or artificially higher than that of their foreign counterparts due to political considerations. In addition, define the total labor supply as: L =Ld + Lf + Lu- L + Lu (1-2) where L is total labor employed and Luis the domestic unemployed labor in the economy. We also define A_ A r ^ a s the ratio of foreign and domestic L L employment in total employment respectively where X,K<\ and A + A =1. Dividing and multiplying equation (1.1) by L we get: 4 5 We assume a short-run horizon where capital is fixed. 4 6 In particular, we w ill assume a differentiated MPL where f > f As long as this inequality L f Li exists, the firm will pay out political contributions until equalization. One justification for the firm to hire domestics given the above inequality is their knowledge o f local custom and language. Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. 132 n =F(A )L - w„(l ■ - A )L - wfAL - bAL where A(A) = F{X,A) = F((l - A), A) Now abstracting from the scale effect by fixing L= 1, we obtain the representative firm’s profit function4 7 : rt -F{A)-wd(\-A)-w fA - bA (1-3) The FOC of (1.3) is given by F' = wf + b — wd from which we find that the © — — demand for foreign labor compositionA = g(wd,wf ,b) where g - F’~ l . From a static analysis perspective, domestic wages are directly proportional to foreign labor demand while foreign wages and rewards are inversely proportional to that demand 4 8 This is because the higher the wages demanded by nationals the higher is the demand for foreign labor relative to national labor. On the other hand, the higher the wages of foreigners the less the demand. Moreover, a rise in the amount of monetary rewards is indicative of lower foreign labor. Again, as long as MPLf > MPLd, firms continue to have the incentive to pay monetary rewards (i.e. b > 0). The Household:4 9 4 7 Note that fixing L=1 does not mean that domestic and foreign labor demand are fixed; they can still vary, but must add-up to 1. Also note that for A = 0 , F (A ) = F ( l) — constant (i.e. the domestic labor wage). 4 8 In a later section (variations on the model-A) we w ill assume a positive relationship with political contributions. 4 9 The modeling o f the household here is for positive expositional purposes only. As we w ill see later on, the household’s utility w ill factor into the social welfare results only indirectly. Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. 133 In this model we view the household as being affected, either positively or negatively, by the presence of foreign labor in the economy. In a positive respect, foreign laborers provide expertise and the transfer of knowledge/skill to working domestic labor5 0 ; on the other hand, for the unemployed domestic workers, foreign labor represents a lost income and/or lost transfer of knowledge opportunity. Thus we can model the household utility function as the following stochastic equation5 1 : E(U(A))=pUe +(1- p)U“ ( 1.4) where p is the probability of employment (the employment rate) defined as the ratio of domestic labor demand to total labor supply, that is, p =— . Additionally, L A L U e ~wa& u u = wu= wf are the utility of employment and unemployment respectively where the latter is a subsidy wage for the unemployed equal to the foreign wage . Thus, for the employed household, whose probability of employment is = 1, the utility is positive and equal to ue ~wd. For the unemployed portion of the household, however, their employment decision takes the following rule: a. Accept employment if: 5 0 This is accounted for in the inequality between the marginal productivity o f labor for foreigners and nationals as discussed above. That is, the higher the transfer o f knowledge from foreign to national workers, the closer to equality is the marginal productivity o f labor for the two groups. 5 1 The choice variable for the household is a . This is because the demand for foreign labor affects the household utility through the probability o f employment, p. 5 2 We assume that if the unemployed does not find a job in the private firm, they hold out and seek a public job that will provide them with what is essentially a subsidy equal to foreign wages. This assumption is not unrealistic; despite a decline in public employment in the last decade, governments in some o f the GCC countries continue to employ up to 80% o f the domestic workers. Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. 134 pif +(] _ py j“ >w>Wf where w is the unemployed household’s reservation wage. This inequality implies: pwd + (1 - p)wf > Wf < = > Wd > Wf ( 1 - 5 ) b. Reject employment if: pWj + ( 1 - p)w f < , wf < z> wd < W f (1-6) Equations (1.5) and (1.6) imply that as long as domestic wages are institutionally set up to be higher than foreign wages, the domestic unemployed will find it easier to accept government jobs, or, equivalently, remain unemployed in the private job market. This implies that a policy of increasing foreign wages in the private sector (through, say, a levied tax on foreign labor) may lead to higher domestic employment. Otherwise, the government will have to continue its role as employer of last resort. The Government The government’s utility function G (.) is given by5 3 : G(A,b)=W(A)+fibA (1.7) where W(A)=?r(A)+E(U(A)) (1.8) 5 3 Note that the arguments /choice variables o f G (.) are both A&b. This is because the government is made up o f a policy makers who’s objective is to improve social welfare and bureaucrats who’s objective is to improve their own welfare. Later, in variations A&B o f the above model, we w ill use only ‘b’ as a policy variable. Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. 135 is the welfare function, which includes the welfare of the firm (the profit function) and the expected welfare of the household. The second term in (1.7) represents the government’s bureaucratic preference for monetary rewards; that is, fi> 0 is a positive bureaucratic preference for monetary rewards from the firm5 4 and bA is the amount of monetary rewards received from the ‘kafeelVfirm. Differentiating the Welfare Function (1.8) above, we have: (1.9) 3A I aA d f ) BA Now define the Lagrangian function: / := G( A, 6) + // (^r - ^r( A)) (1-10) where h is the reservation profit of the firm below which it will not invest in any productive activity in the economy5 5 . From (1.10), the first order necessary conditions (FOCs) are: • With respect to A : w ))+ p b = ^ i ^ l ( 1.11) BA dA • With respect to b: = P (112) Substituting for p in (1.11) we get: 5 4 3 can also be seen as a political corruption index o f the bureaucrats. This index can be controlled by the government through the (costless) crackdown on bureaucrats (but not the firms) engaged in the rent-seeking market. 5 5 Note that when the firm’s profit is constrained, then its output is also constrained. This is equivalent to the imposition o f a quota. Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. 136 P ( W{ A) I 5A +{wd~wf ) dE(U( A)) dA (1.13) Substituting for the RHS of (1.13) in the marginal social welfare function (1.9), we get: dW(A) dA : (1 P) 'dF( A) . 3A + (w ,-w .) (1.14) Equation (1.14) provides us with the following scenarios tabulated below. Table 30 Various Scenarios of Tax & Quota Imposition Case r dW(A) A 1 >1 <0 Egs\ ^ Ef m 2 -1 <0 Er si ^ ^as2 ^ 3a <1 < 0 iff b > (1 - + W - J Fr sI • '* EpM 3b <1 > 0 iff b < (1 - p) f dF(A) > --------+ w — w V dA f ) A rS 3 < Case 1 indicates that a strong government preference, i.e., a high corruption index among government bureaucrats, will result in a lower marginal social welfare Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. 137 compared with an optimal free market level5 6 . As a result, there is over utilization of migrant workers compared to the level of a free market economy5 7 . This result occurs because both government preferences (P) and the monetary rewards by the firm (b) work to re-enforce each other. Case 2 shows the scenario where the government is indifferent (i.e., p=l). This is equivalent to the levying of taxes5 8 . This case will also result in a negative marginal social utility. However, in this case the degree is less intense (weaker negativity) because only monetary rewards ‘b’ are at work5 9 . Thus the foreign labor composition here, while negative, is greater than the free market case, but less than case 1 above. The third possibility (case 3) is due to weak preferences to monetary rewards. In this case there are two scenarios; case 3a is not a viable result because it states that the monetary reward amount is greater than the (shadow) value of the marginal income from increasing the foreign labor composition. That is, the firm is reducing the marginal social welfare (through its increase of foreign labor composition) because it is paying the government more than the marginal income it obtains from 3 6 The optimal free market (FM) level occurs at dfT(A) = q dA 5 7 This is a result of the concave nature of the Welfare function that takes the shape o f the profit function of the firm. 5 8 This is because all what the firm pays out in terms of political contributions enters the government’s function unchanged by neither strong nor weak preferences ( & 1). This is akin to Meade’s (1952) lump-sum distribution o f revenue. 5 9 A question that arises here is: Why would firms pay any political contributions if governments were indifferent? We can say, that, even if governments are indifferent, there is always the “attempt” by firms to tip the political scale in their favor through bribes. This is a non-productive activity and results in a negative social outcome. Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. 138 adding foreign labor to its work force. Since this is not economically rational, this case is excluded. The final case is 3b, where the monetary rewards are less than the (shadow) value of the marginal income from increasing foreign labor composition. In this instance, the firm’s marginal income is higher than what it pays out as rewards. That is, not all the revenue sought in the rent seeking market is actually absorbed6 0 . As a result, it ends up causing welfare improvement through the underutilization of migrant workers6 1 . Summary A quota imposition on foreign labor employed by the private sector in the presence of a market for rent-seeking, where monetary rewards paid out by the firm are coupled with strong preferences by government bureaucrats, will lead to a worsening of social welfare and an over-utilization of migrant workers. Similarly, a tax imposed on foreign labor will result in a negative, albeit weaker, marginal social welfare effect. Thus in comparing the two options, quotas vs. taxes, the latter is a better policy tool for improving social welfare but only in the presence of strong bureaucratic preferences. Note also that for the first two cases, a reduction of the differential wage among domestic and foreign workers can help reduce the negative effect on the marginal social welfare6 2 . Finally, under a quota system, a reduction of 6 0 This result is consistent with the rationale provided by Bhagwati and Sirinivasan (1980). 6 5 Note that this can only occur because p <1. 6 2 However, this will not do the trick for case 3b because o f weak political preferences. Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. 139 bureaucratic corruption may end up improving social welfare as less money is channeled to unproductive activities. Thus there are essentially two ways to improve social welfare in the short run. One is to reduce the wage differential between foreign and domestic labor in the presence of generally strong monetary preferences, i.e., p > 1. Two, is to crack down on bureaucrats in an effort to reduce corruption and channel monetary rewards into more productive activities given that the differential wage structure is not going to change anytime soon. F IG U R E 26 National & Expatriate L abor M ark et Wages Labor Supply Domestic W orker Surplus i D 3 0 Labor Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. 140 Figure 26 above provides a simple presentation of the labor market in the private sector of the GCC economies. Foreign and domestic wages are given such that the former is lower than the latter. If labor demand happens to fall any where in the range O- Lfl, as with D3- D3, the firm will only hire foreign labor. However, in the more realistic case of having both domestic and foreign labor, and, given the institutional setup of wages where by domestic wages are higher than their foreign counterparts, the demand curve lies somewhere beyond Lfl. In this case, the firm hires O Lfl migrants and OLdl — OLf j = LflLdl domestic labor. The ‘kafeel’ stands the chance to lose all the money represented by the shaded area. Thus there is an incentive for him to offer monetary rewards in order to maintain at least a portion of this income6 3 . The above figure shows that, given the demand for labor at Dl-Dl and the structure of wages, national workers will not accept any wages below wd and will, therefore, remain unemployed with the unemployment level equaling at least OLfx, that is, the number of migrant workers employed in the firm6 4 . 6 3 Notice that the rectangle just below the shaded area represents the amount of foreign labor remittance. 6 4 Those who are unemployed by the private firm are assumed to receive government subsidies. Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. 141 Variations on the model-Part A Now suppose that the only government policy instrument is the monetary rewards that the bureaucrats collect. That is, ‘b’ is now the only variable available to the government where the foreign labor composition A := A(b), with — — > 0 65. We write the firm’s profit function as: jc = F(A(b)) -w d( 1 - A(b)) - wf A(b) - bA(b) (1.15) The Social Welfare function is: W(A(b)) = /r(A(b))+E([f(A(b))) (1.16) Taking the derivative of (1.16) with respect to A := A(b), we have: M L W t v , , 4 * M (ut) dA(b) v v / ' r ' 8A(b) The Government objective function is: G(b) = W(A(b)) + 0bA(b) (1.18) Maximizing the government’s objective function with respect to “b” we get the FOC 66. ^ =o o B 9 MA(6))+„ ,_ „ _ » )+/ ^ +A(6))_ A (»)+5 ( W a W , 0 (1.19) 8b 8b v v x ; 8b H V w 8Mb) 8b 6 5 Differentiating (1.15) with respect to ‘b’ and setting the LHS =0 gives AY M _____________ , with A '(b) > 0 assuming that w .-w ,-b t0 - F'(A(b)) + W j - wf - b 66 By maximizing with respect to ‘b’, the government is indirectly imposing a quota on the firm’s foreign labor. Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. 142 Deriving the marginal utility function for the house hold from equation (1.19), we have: Notice that while the structure of equation (1.22) is somewhat different from equation (1.14), the results are quite similar. In case 1 we have strong preferences for monetary rewards by government bureaucrats. In this case the marginal social welfare is negative regardless of what value the (inverse) monetary reward’s elasticity for foreign labor demand, ehK, takes. In case 2—the tax equivalent case—the marginal social welfare is also negative, however, it is less than in case 1. This is because only monetary rewards tend to influence the political equilibrium. This is the exact result of case 2 in Table 6 7 Note: Since A := A(b) has one argument, we can write it in terms of total derivative. 6 8 Monetary rewards act as prices where, in order to keep or add foreign labor to the firm, the owner must pay a bribe. dE(U(A(b))) (1-0) A(b) ( 1.20) db Now substituting (1.20) in (1.17) we obtain: dW (1-0) A (b) ( 1.21) db with the term6 7 A(b) _ A(b)db _ , , where eb A is the (inverse) monetary dA(b) ~ dA(b)b *6 * A db reward’s elasticity of demand6 8 . Thus equation (1.21) can be written as: dW(A(b)) dA(b) = -0b + ebA(\-f})b = b(-p(\ + ebA) + ebA) ( 1.22) Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. 143 31 above. In case 3 we have two possible scenarios, the first (3a), as that in Table 30, is not possible because it implies that -/? > eh A (1+ft) which can only happen if eb A is negative and large enough. However, eb A cannot be negative since we have already stated that A’(b) > 0. Case 3-b, gives us the viable scenario under weak monetary preferences. Here, a positive marginal social welfare occurs because the (inverse) monetary reward’s elasticity of demand for foreign labor is larger than monetary preferences and the influence such preferences exert on this elasticity. That is, given a low level of corruption among the bureaucrats, the firm is able to reduce ‘b’, and thus A(b), in such a way so as to use these resources productively allowing for higher marginal income and an increase in the number of national workers employed. Equation (1.22) gives us the following scenarios: Table 31 Various Scenarios of Tax & Quota Imposition—Variation A Case P dW dA A (b) 1 P>\ < 0 ^-ssi ■ " * ^ m 2 f i - 1 < 0 Agsx > Aj^j > Am 3a < 0iff-P(l+6?A A)>£?ft A ^RS3 ■ '* ’ F U 3b P<\ >oiff -V(i+ebA)<ebh ^RS3 ^ ^ m Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. 144 Implications We have stated in the introduction that the government’s objective, at least in the short-run, is to reduce the unemployment among its citizens through the replacement of foreign by national labor. In the analysis above, this can be done in two ways. One is to impose a tax6 9 (case 2), which, while having a negative effect, will be less negative than the case where strong preferences by government bureaucrats exist (case 1). Two is to lower the bureaucratic greed thus allowing firms to improve their profits by channeling the monetary rewards saved into productive activities that will allow for the reduction of its foreign labor composition. Variations on the model-Part B Now suppose we slightly alter the model by allowing monetary rewards ‘b’ to be paid out by all the firms employing foreign labor as a predetermined amount. For example, the firms can form a group/lobby and agree to pay a certain amount ‘b’ which is the sum of all the firms’ contributions. Again, when b = 0, A(b) = 0 and when b > 0, A(b) > Oso that we have the following objective functions. The Firm: n = F (Mb)) - wd (1 - A (b)) - wf A(b) - b 10 (1.23) The Government 6 9 For example, instituting a tax system in lieu of the bureaucracy that oversees the importation of migrant workers. 7 0 It can easily be shown here, as with part A , that A'(b) > 0 by differentiating (1.23) with respect to ‘b’ and finding A . Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. 145 G(b) = W(A(b)) + 0b (1.24) With the Social Welfare function remaining as in (1.16). Repeating the same process in part A, we now get the following marginal social welfare: aw(m) 1-1 ,. d M h ) A ’(ft) Again, the results are similar to the above except that monetary rewards factor only indirectly into the marginal social welfare function. In this case, we have the following scenarios: 1. A high monetary preference among the bureaucrats (/? >1) results, as before, in a negative marginal social welfare. 2. An indifferent preference (/? = 1) will result in an optimal utilization of foreign labor force. This is the tax equivalent case7 1 . 3. A weak preference (/? < 1) will result in a positive marginal social outcome as before. Thus, given a choice between quotas and taxes, the latter provides the best social outcome, as it is equivalent to that of a free market. On the other hand, if the government wants, at least in the short run, to increase the number of domestic employment in the private sector, it must crack down on bureaucratic rent seekers. 7 1 This tax is equivalent to a flat tax payment, i.e., it is not directly proportional to the firm’s foreign labor composition. Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. 146 CHAPTER V CHALLENGES & RECOMMENDIATIONS7 2 Challenges Undoubtedly, there has been good progress in the GCC countries over the past fifty years in terms of both economic and human development. This is to be expected given these countries’ considerable oil endowment and the absence of an economic infrastructure at the time of the windfall. Since that time, one of the most important goals of the GCC states’ development plans was the creation of a quality stock of human capital that would virtually replace migrant workers who were initially invited to help with economic development. However, the GCC countries have not fared very well in trying to achieve this goal. Despite the data boasted in the statistical abstracts and the proclaimed achievements of the development plans of the GCC states, these figures present only quantitative information, yet fail to reflect the qualitative aspects of human and economic development. As we have shown, despite its overall decline, foreign labor still occupies a large percentage of private sector employment at a time when governments can no longer sustain additional employment of nationals7 3 . Unofficial estimates for Saudi Arabia show that nearly a third of all Saudis below the age of 25 are unemployed, 7 2 Some portions of this chapter follow Datta, Nugent and Samman (October 2000). 7 3 For the Saudi case, for example, it is estimated that there are about 5.5 million foreigners working in the kingdom. They include U.S. petroleum engineers, Canadian nurses and other high paid Westerners, but the great majority are Bangladeshis, Filipinos, Indonesians and other Third World workers; the people who keep Saudi Arabia running. Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. 147 with 150,000 young Saudis entering the job market every year, but only one-third expecting to find a job. Table 32 Remittances as Percent of Total Imports (billions of dollars) Countiy 1975 1990 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 Bahrain 6.40% 21.60% 7.69% 11.11% 16.67% 15.38% na Kuwait 11.60% 19.70% 17.07% 19.77% 26.32% 26.76% 35.09% Oman 27.20% 30.50% 12.00% 14.04% 17.54% 14.52% na Q atar na 66.80% 15.15% 17.65% 29.17% 18.75% na Saudi Arabia 13.20% 46.90% 52.96% 50.00% 50.18% 51.16% 50.32% UAE 26.40% 21.90% 10.21% 9.84% 11.58% 10.29% na Source: 1975 & 1990 Askari, Nowshirvani and Jabs' (1997, p. 67). The 1997-2001 figures are calculated from remittance data of Gulf News Online quoted in Alexanders Gas & Oil Connections and The GCC Economic Bulletin 2002. The positive aspects of foreign labor are easy to understand since foreign workers bring a strong work ethic, a willingness to undertake the kind of manual labor that nationals, especially during the early development phase of the GCC countries, preferred not to do, and bring with them skills that are not available in the indigenous population and, which could be transferred over time if properly administered. Table 32, however, shows one important reason why the continuing heavy dependence on foreign workers may be deemed less than optimal. The foreign workers, most of whom come to the region without their families, have a relatively high propensity to send remittances abroad. Indeed, as shown in this table, as Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. 148 recently as 2000 remittances from the foreign work force constituted from 10 to 51 percent rate of the total import bills of GCC countries. Not only does this present a drain on the current account balance and GNP but also it implies that the domestic demand for goods and services produced within the country will be that much lower than it would be in the case in which the work force was entirely domestically supplied. Table 33 shows two additional reasons why a continued high rate of dependence on foreign workers may be deemed to be problematic. In particular, the labor force participation rates of women are unusually low and certain to rise over the foreseeable future. Second, population growth rates, although generally declining, remain unusually high. The earlier extremely high population growth rates were, in part, a reflection of the influx of foreign workers following from the oil boom in the region. This has tapered off sharply since the mid-1980s due to declining oil prices and, in the case of Kuwait, the 1991 Gulf War. Any sustained rebound in oil prices such as what has been experienced in the past few years or deteriorating economic or political conditions outside the GCC region may be expected to cut into the decline of the trend or even reverse it. More reflective of the past and future trends in labor force growth of nationals of the GCC countries are the total fertility rates presented in the last three columns of the table. Hence, considering (1) a projected rapid growth in the domestic population, (2) the likelihood of sharply rising female labor force participation rates and (3) the projected increase in the share of the population of working age (implicit in the Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. 149 earlier very high fertility rates and subsequent declines), it will clearly be a challenge to create the growth in jobs to accommodate the rapidly increasing domestic labor force of GCC nationals. Table 33 Labor Force Participation and Population Growth Country Women’s Labor Force Participation Rate (% ) Annual Rate of Population Growth (% ) Total Fertility Rate Total (including both Nationals and Foreign) Nationals Only Early 1995 1978 to 1988 1988-1998 1978 1998 2001 (1) (2) (3) (4) (8) (6) (7) (8) Bahrain 6.2 (1971) 17 9 3.8 2.3 5.2 4.9 2.57 Kuwait 15.0 (1975) 23 7 4.8 2.5 6.9 3.9 2.59 Oman 11.0(1986) 12 1 4.8 5.5 7.2 5.9 4.14 Q atar aa. 11 8 7.7 3.7 6.8 3.8 2.54 Saudi Arabia 4.7 (1974) 10 3,6* 5.5 4.2 7.3 6.1 5.38 UAE 10.1 (1975) 12 2 8.7 3.2 6.4 4.8 3.1 Sources: Column (1): Al-Munajjed (1999, p.121), Column (2): Tabbara (1999, p. 109) Column (3) Askarai, Nowshirvani and Jaber (1997, p.74) Columns (4)-(7): Shakoury (1999, p. 128-130) Column (8): World Bank Web site (http://devdata.worldbank.O Tg) * Saudi Central Department of Statistics (2000) Most troubling is the unprecedented amount spent on human capital development over the last thirty years that has not shown reasonable returns in terms Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. 150 of economic development and/or productivity, especially in the private sector. This, in large measure, can be attributed to the absence of a quality education that has been short-circuited by the absence of empowerment of teachers and principals at various levels of the educational system. In the academic (as well as business) environments, the authority to make decisions rests, for cultural and political reasons, in the hands of a few bureaucrats and results in the stifling of creative ideas and delays in the implementation of vital decisions. This has also rendered useless many foreign experts brought in at considerable cost to help with the development plans. In addition, the policies of subsidies adopted by the GCC governments intended to ‘share’ the newly found wealth have created what a Canadian friend calls the “trust fund society”, that is, a generation not only dependent on government handouts but which sees such handouts as its right. This has contributed in making the government the employer of last resort and, combined with cultural factors, rooted in the tribal character of the GCC societies, and the lack of research and development, has discouraged nationals from entering the science and technology fields. Instead, the majority of students have entered majors that would help them obtain jobs with the various government- owned companies and agencies. As government jobs became scarce, it became harder for nationals to find jobs in the private sector, not only because some continue to believe that their governments will provide for their welfare and, therefore, will hold out on any job that offers them less than the expected reservation wage, but, more importantly, because they are not majoring in the science and technology fields Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. 151 that have been increasingly demanded by the market; this result is also attributed to the absence of communication channels between the academic institutions and the private sector. In conclusion, there are two main issues regarding education that are important to pinpoint for the future policies for the GCC countries7 4 . One, the return on education depends to a large extent on the economic environment in which labor is employed. The state-led development adopted by the GCC countries did not pay off as the higher wages that were demanded and received by nationals did not reflect their higher productivity or the increased government employment to growth. This means that the strategy of continued expansion of the public sector must come to a halt as it is economically unsustainable. Second, the returns on education in terms of economic growth will depend on adapting the educational system to the changing local and international environment. This means equipping the labor force with the right skills to tackle the changing demands of the economy and focusing on aspects of education that relate more to quality than quantity. Recommendations While the GCC countries seem to be moving in the right direction, there are challenges that need to be faced head-on, particularly as pressures mount on the Gulf region in the context of the World Trade Organization membership and responsibilities7 5 . In fact, as economic reforms begin to move the GCC countries 7 4 See also Pritchett (1999) 7 5 Presently all GCC member states are members of the WTO with the exception o f Saudi Arabia. Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. 152 toward economies that are increasingly characterized by market forces, there is, given the current inadequate skills among nationals, a high probability of exacerbating the current problem of unemployment7 6 . This paper has demonstrated that there are two main policies that the GCC countries must adopt in order to reduce the unemployment problem. The model in chapter IV has shown that, in the short-run, governments must begin to crack down on government bureaucrats and, effectively, therefore, reduce the number of foreign workers. For the medium and long-term, the GCC countries can reduce the number of government employees through early retirement programs and further reforms of state-owned sectors.7 7 The focus of the GCC governments should be on the more traditional roles of making fiscal policies and regulations of markets. Governments must do this hand-in-hand with the replacement of foreign workers in the private sector by imposing a tax on businesses that employ them. This will result in reducing the differential wages between nationals and expatriates and will provide an incentive for the private sector to hire more nationals with similar skills to those of foreign laborers. To tackle their economic problems and particularly that of low labor skill, GCC countries may consider creating Qualified Industrial Zones (QIZs)7 8 and/or 76 For example, the introduction of competition may mean, at least in the short run, that many nationals, previously employed by government in now privately owned companies, can be laid off due to the lack of skill and/or competitive efficiency. As such, tending to the quality o f education, which is inextricably linked to the problem of unemployment and problems o f foreign labor must become a national priority. 7 7 Some GCC countries, like Bahrain, have already opened the doors to Telecom competition, while others like Saudi Arabia are expected to begin such reforms by the last quarter o f 2004. 7 8 Qualified Industrial Zones is a concept proposed by the U.S. to promote industries in Jordan through quota and duty free access to U.S. markets. It has both an economic and political dimension Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. 153 Export Processes Zones (EPZs)7 9 In Jordan, QIZs have increased job opportunities for unskilled laborers8 0 , have contributed greatly to Jordanian exports and have resulted in an economic ripple effect for the surrounding districts in which these zones are located. In addition, the recruitment program that has been put in place has helped in the enhancement of labor skills and has provided laborers with the necessary experience to take up supervisory positions. Since most QIZs in Jordan are owned and operated by entrepreneurs from foreign countries such as China, Taiwan and India, who have experience in the textile and high-technology industries in their own countries and can use the Jordanian agreement with the USA to benefit from its quota and duty free status, some GCC countries can also follow suit or enter into their own agreements with the U.S.8 1 The United Arab Emirates’ investment in the textile manufacturing industry in Jordan and within its own borders is a good example; while benefiting from the Jordanian-U.S. agreement, the UAE has begun the “Textile Village” project in Dubai expected to promote trade in the Gulf region currently worth $3.2 billion in average sales.8 2 Thus, the UAE has benefited from the Jordanian agreement by employing its own national labor, and, at the same time, has undergone development of its own textile industry so as to as it promotes economic growth and economic cooperation with Israel. The first QIZs was established in 1997. For a more detailed exposition of QIZs see Jane Manneh (2003). 79 EPZs are free trade areas in which duty free imports o f capital and intermediate goods are allowed, but with the condition that all or a significant share of the goods produced in the zone are exported (Johansson and Larson 1997). 8 0 Eligible candidates come from different educational backgrounds and include both men and women. Many of these candidates begin with an entry-level position, but receive training and gradually replace the existing foreign labor. 1 The QIZs agreement is partly a strategy by the U.S. to promote peace and economic relationship with Israel and can be used directly-if only for short time-by the GCC countries to develop various industries. 8 2 See Fakha (2003). Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. 154 become more competitive with the more advanced textile industries in countries like China and India. Eventually, the UAE will either get into its own agreement with the United States (if it accepts economic cooperation with Israel), or, it will have benefited from its investment in the Jordan and be ready to strike out on its own after 2005 by, possibly, forming its own QIZs agreement with other countries.8 3 For other GCC countries like Saudi Arabia, EPZs can serve as a means of attracting foreign direct investments and, thus, encouraging the transfer of technology to workers, managers and firms.8 4 EPZs have a good chance of succeeding in the Gulf region because of adequate infrastructure of the transport, energy and telecommunication systems in these countries. However, to increase the likelihood of success, the GCC countries need to ensure that EPZs are properly set up and managed. They must also ensure that EPZs are integrated with national reforms and liberalization programs as well as regional integration plans for the Gulf region. For example, improving customs services and cracking down on bureaucratic corruption are important issues that these countries must contend with o r in the future. Additionally, creating backward linkages between EPZs and domestic firms is encouraged in order to increase the overall economic activity. Other benefits of EPZs include their contribution to the building of human capital. This can be achieved in two main ways. Unskilled workers, currently 8 3 It is expected that in 2005 the Multi-Fiber Agreement (MFA) between the U.S and Jordan will be abolished. 8 4 The wealth o f the GCC states, and thus their lower investment risk compared to other poor countries, works to their advantage as it encourages foreign investments in the region. These countries also score an average of 2.5 on the Heritage Foundation Index of Economic Freedom for 2003, which falls under the category of mostly free economies and help encourage such investments. 8 5 The crack down on bureaucrats is also accounted for in the model of chapter IV. Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. 155 unemployed, can benefit from job training and learning by doing.8 6 In addition, training takes place at the supervisory and managerial levels through the establishment of contacts between local employees and foreign managers, which also helps local management to improve their managerial skills by learning new managerial methods, negotiations, marketing skills and general business knowledge and entrepreneurship.8 7 While such trade liberalization schemes have their success and failure stories,8 8 they are worth considering for the GCC states provided that lessons are learned from the experiences of other countries. For example, some of the factors that characterize the success of EPZs in countries like Mauritius, Korea and Taiwan include a serious and persistent strong promotion of exports as well as targeting specific markets. Such promotions of exports are particularly important for the Gulf region since import substituting industrialization (ISI) regimes, which have strong political and economic influence, will undoubtedly present obstacles to EPZs. Free Trade Agreements (FTAs), which have been progressing both on the regional and international fronts in the context of the World Trade Organization agreements, can help promote the growth of EPZs. Free Trade Agreements will help eliminate duties and commercial barriers to bilateral trade in goods and services between the trading partners, increase trade and investment in the GCC region and contribute to the reduction of unemployment 8 6 While such benefits may be limited because o f the low-skill and low-tech environment, workers can benefit through earning income and learning work discipline. 8 7 See Madani (1998). 8 8 See for example Tekere (2000) and Nugent (2002). Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. 156 In addition, the GCC countries must develop, for the long run, a more modem educational structure based on the empowerment of state and local officials as well as the empowerment of principals, teachers, professionals, families and the community at large. This requires that schools be treated as institutions and become integrated into the community in order to mould the personalities of their graduates and hone their skills. As such, the community must have more say in school curriculum and activities that are reflective of its needs and goals. It is important, therefore, that the centralization of decisions with respect to public (and, in some cases, private) schools be eased so as to allow for more freedom of action for schools as opposed to imposing a curriculum based on political considerations. Furthermore, emphasis on math and sciences must begin early on in school education, particularly in primary and intermediate schools. A balance must be struck between science and literature so as to provide the courses necessary for advancing mathematical and scientific skills, but, at the same time, maintain the religious heritage for countries like Saudi Arabia. It is important that religious classes instill the very ideals that they espouse, mainly, that hard work and competition are parts and parcel of Islamic tradition. And instead of the rote memorization style of teaching in schools, a more creative method, based on creative thinking, dialogue, discussion and tolerance of other people’s point of view, must be encouraged at all levels of education. Equally important is the provision of educational opportunities for students who, because of limited access or, because of low high school test scores, were not Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. 157 able to enter the major of their first choice. In that respect, good use can be made of the telecommunication technology to provide distance learning8 9 . Similarly, this technology can be used to substitute for foreign expertise through international communications. For example, hospitals and universities can take advantage of the information technology to provide live seminars and lectures from other renowned institutions. In addition, the importance of the English language as the link to the transfer of knowledge and skill must be underscored. Therefore, the teaching of English should begin at an early stage of education. This will enable future workers and researchers to better communicate with the outside world and, therefore, become more comprehensive of the advances in science and technology. This will also help in accelerating the labor nationalization plans, which to date have not been widely successful in the private sector. Among the other possible solutions to contemplate is the ‘outsourcing’ of education, something that has been initiated recently by the state of Qatar. In 1997, Qatar adopted a plan to establish a new private university to serve as a branch campus with one or more of the world’s top academic institutions. The goal is to produce world-class graduates capable of assuming leadership and professional positions locally and regionally. These new institutions aim at fostering independent thinking, creative problem solving and effective communication skills and are committed to professional and personal excellence. The programs of these universities will be guided by local and regional manpower requirements. Initially, 89 For a case study on distance education for Saudi Arabia, see Khan, Shazli, Khan and Sait. Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. 158 the emphasis will be on professional, science-based studies including medical, engineering, and business administration and information technology with expansions into other fields in the future. Finally, it is important for the GCC countries to begin to actively collect and disseminate data on the various development policies and initiatives, especially as they relate to education. In that respect, much data are needed for assessing the progress of education. Paramount among these are the educational level and experience of national and expatriate teachers, the mathematical and technical skills of students (to be gauged through standardized tests) and the cost of education per student at various levels. In addition, data on the level of education of national vs. foreign workers (or years of schooling) in the private sector and their respective training costs, will help in assessing the skill gap between the two types of laborers. Other relevant data are those pertaining to physical and educational capital per worker, average wage growth at the individual level and years of schooling of the adult population. These data, while not exhaustive, are essential in ascertaining the current status of education and skill in the GCC countries. They will also allow for studies that would determine the economic returns on education, and, thus, help the GCC countries formulate proactive policies that have better chances of success than the reactive initiatives these countries have experienced in the past several decades. Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. 159 Future Research There is still much to be done in order to ascertain the reasons for the lower skill level of nationals vis-a-vis their foreign competitors. Future research can follow a methodology similar to that followed in this paper, but focus on nationals educated abroad and compare their employment success rate with that of nationals educated locally. This would shed light on whether the problem of skill and/or unemployment in the GCC region is inherent to national education. Other interesting research questions include the following: How do students from private schools fare compared to those from public schools? What are the factors affecting their achievement and/or learning, if any, and how can public schools improve their performance? Finally, more in depth research is needed to address female education and employment in the GCC region. Among the research questions are the following. How does the unemployment problem among males affect the education opportunities of women? That is, is there an effect on women’s education as a result of resources reallocated to alleviate the problem of unemployment among the male population? If so, what are the effects and consequences of such action on women’s education? Or, what are the effects of the limited job opportunities for women in the GCC region on women’s education? And how does that, in turn, affect the educational attainment of the future generations? Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. 160 Concluding Remarks In recent years, it has been widely acknowledged that economic reforms are important for the future of GCC countries, not only for improving national economic performance, but also for benefiting from the economic globalization in terms of increasing foreign direct investments and economic trade with other countries and developed nations in particular. It is also widely acknowledged that past methods of education have not been effective in rising up to the economic challenges that these countries have experienced in the past few decades and that more needs to be done in order to face the challenges of the future. What remains to be done, therefore, is to begin a series of initiatives and action plans in order to reach the goals set by the GCC countries in their various development plans. One of the most important aspects of any plan is to have a vision that provides a long-term road map for where the country is heading. What is also needed is to have a consensus among the various parties in these countries as to the goals in question; a concerted action between public and private sectors in order to remedy the problems of education through communication and joint action plans; and a continuity of these plans in order to ensure that efforts are not lost in the process. In other words, there is a fundamental need to properly manage the development planning process whereby good efforts are encouraged and rewarded and mistakes are corrected and avoided. In addition, there is a need for region-wide debates on the future of the Gulf region as a whole and the issues important for its development. It is only through constant monitoring of plans and self-criticism that progress can be Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. 161 achieved. These means are paramount in any successful long-term plans for economic development and indeed for the development of the educational system. Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. 162 BIBLIOGRAPHY Al-Ajaji, Adel (1995), “Obstacles to the Employment of Male Saudi University Graduates by the Private Sector in Saudi Arabia.” PhD Dissertation: The George Washington University, Washington, D.C. Al-Assaf, A. M. (1987), “Human Resources Development in Saudi Arabia,” Unpublished Masters Thesis: California State University, Chico, CA. Al-Dosary, A. S. (1991), “Towards the Reduction of Foreign Workers in Saudi Arabia,” Unpublished doctoral dissertation: University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI. Alexander’s Gas & Oil Connections-News & Trends: Middle East (July 12,2002), “GCC expatriates remit $107 bn in capital flight.” Volume 7, No. 14 (www.gasandoil.com/goc/news/ntm22878.htm). Alghafis, A. N. (1992), “Universities in Saudi Arabia. Their Role in Science, Technology and Development.” Lanham, MD: University Press of America. Archer, J. (1998) “Instruction. Technology counts.” Teacher, 10,18-19. Askari, Hossein, Vahid Nowshirvani and Mohamed Jaber (1997). Economic Development in the GCC: The Blessing and the Curse of Oil. Greenwich, CT: JAI Press. Baghwati and Sirinvasan (1982), “Directly-Unproductive Profit-Seeking (DUP) Activities,” Journal o f Political Economy, 90, pp. 988-1002. Barnett, W.S. (1995).“Long-term effects on early childhood programs on cognitive and school outcomes.” The Future o f Children, 5,25-5. Betts, Julian R. (1999). “Returns to Quality of Education,” Economic of Education Thematic Group: The World Bank. Betts, J. R. & Shkolnik, J. L. (1999). “The behavioural effects of variations in class size: The case of math teachers.” Educational Evaluation and Policy Analysis, 21, 193-197. Blatchard, P. & Mortimore, P. (1994). “The issue of class size for younger children in schools: What can we learn from research?” Oxford Research o f Education, 20, 411-428. Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. 163 Bourland, Brad. (October 8,2002).“Saudi Arabia’s Employment Profile”, Saudi American Bank. Bulach, C.R., Malone, B., & Castleman, C. (1995). “An investigation of variables related to student achievement.” Mid-Western Educational researcher, 8,23-29. Caughy, M. O., DiPierto, J. A. & Strobino, D. M. (1994). “Daycare participation as a protective factor in the cognitive development of low-income children.” Child Development, 65, 457-471. Datta, S., Nugent, B. and Samman, H. (October 2000). “Labor Market & Private Sector Development Policies in a Labor Scarce, Oil Exporting Country: A Theoretical Exploration.” Working Paper: Economic Research Forum. Deaton, A. (2000). The Analysis of Household Surveys: A Microeconomic Approach to Development Policy. The John’s Hopkins University Press, Baltimore and London. Easterlin, Richard A. (1999). Growth Triumphant: The Twenty-first Century Historical Perspective. Ann Arbor: The University of Michigan Press. Education Quality Indicators Program (EQUIP) ’ . The Framework (2000). EIU Risk Service (August 2000) Fakah, Ali. “UAE ‘Textile Village’ promotes US$3 billion annual trade”. Market News Express (www.tdctrade.com/mne/garment/020103.htm). Feragany, N. (2000). “Arab National Education And Development, An Overview.” Cairo: Almishkat Center for Research and Training. Ferhat, Hasan (April-August 1996). “Rich Arabs, poor science”. www.muslimmedia.com/archives/oaw98/arabs.htm Fink, Arlene. (1995).The Survey Kit. London: Sage Publications. Gamelidin, Ahmed Ihab (1994). Labor Markets in GCC Countries: A Survey. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. GCC Economic Bulletin (2002). Volume XVII. Girgis, Maurice (2000). “National Versus Migrant Workers in the GCC: Coping With Change”, Mediterranean Development Forum Labor Workshop, Cairo, Egypt. Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. 164 Glewwe, Paul. (2002) “Schools and Skills in Developing Countries: “Education Policies and Socioeconomic Outcomes,” Journal o f Economic Literature, Vol. XL, pp. 436-482. Greenwald, R., Hedges, L. V. & Laine, R. D. (1996). “The effect of school resources on student achievement.” Review o f Educational Research, 66 (15), 361- 396. Grisay, A. (1994). “Effective and Less Effective Junior Schools in France: A Longitudinal Study on the School Environment, Variables Influencing the Student’s Academic Achievement. Study Skills, and Effective Development.” ERIC Document 380864. Freeman, Alan. (July 8,2003) “Young and Jobless in the oil kingdom.” The Globe and M ail: www.theglobeandmail.com. Gulf Marketing Review (May 1995) —Databank series. Hallinger, P., Bickman, L. & Davis, K. “School context, principal leadership and student reading achievement.” Elementary School Journal, 96 (1996), 527-549. Hanushek, E. A. (1997). “Assessing the effects of school resources on student performance: An update.” Educational Evaluation and Policy Analysis, 19,141- 164. Eric A. Hanushek and Dennis D. Kimko. (December 2000). “Schooling, Labor-Force Quality, and the Growth of Nations,” American Economic Review, vol. 90 No. 5 , p. 1204. Hanushek, E. A. (1989). “The impact of differential expenditures.” Educational Researcher, 18, 45-51. Heck, R. H. & Mayor, R.A. (1993). “School characteristics, school indicators and student outcomes: Implications for policies to improve schools.” Journal o f Education Policy, 8,143-154. Heck, R. H., Larsen, T. J. & Marcoulides, G. A. (1990). “Instructional leadership and school achievement: Validation of a causal model.” Educational Administration Quarterly, 26,94-125. Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. 165 Hirth & Mitchell. (1995). “An Indiana Investigation of the Impact of Expenditures and Socioeconomic Status on Student achievement: Does Money Matter?” ERIC Document 389056. Holisinger, D. B. (1982). “Time, Content and Expectations as Predictors of School Achievement in the USA and other Developed Countries: A Review of IEA Evidence”. ERIC Document 227077. Howley, C. (1996) “Compounding disadvantage: The effects of school and district size on student achievement in West Virginia.” Journal of Research in Rural Education, 12,25-32. International Information and Trading Services (2001). Directory of the top 1000 Saudi companies. Dammam: Altarik Printing Press, Saudi Arabia. Industrial Commercial Directory (2001): Jeddah Chamber of Commerce & Industry. Ibrahim, S. A. (1983), “The Saudi Arabian Manpower Dilemma. The Development of Human Resources Through Higher Education.” Unpublished Masters Thesis, Pacific Lutheran University, Tacoma, WA. Johansson, H. and Nilson, L. (1997). “Export Processing Zones as Catalysts,” World Development. Vol. 25. No 12,2115-2128. Khan, S. A., Shazli, S. Z., Khan, J. A. & Sait, S. M. “Distance Learning and its Prospects in Saudi Arabia.” King Fahad University of Petroleum and Minerals, Dahran 31261, Saudi Arabia (No publication date). Kronemer, A. (1997). "Inventing a Working Class in Saudi Arabia" Monthly Labor Review, 120 (May), 29-30. Looney, R. E. (1994). Manpower Policies and Development in the Persian Gulf Region. Westport, CT: Praeger Publishers. Lee, Jong-Wha, Robert J. Barro. (1998). “Schooling Quality in a Cross Section of Countries,” Development Discussion Paper No. 659. Harvard Institute for International Development, Harvard University. Lee, V. E. & Smith, J. B. (1997). “High school size: Which works best and for whom?” Educational Evaluation and Policy Analysis, 19,205-227. Leithwood, K., jantsi, D., & Steinbach, R. (1999). “Changing Leadership for Changing Times”. Buckingham: Open University Press. Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. 166 Lytton, H. & Pyryt, M. (1998). “Predictors of achievement in basic skills: A Canadian effective schools study.” Canadian Journal o f Education, 23,281-301. Madani, Dorasti (December, 1998). “Export Processing Zones.” PREMnotes: Economic Policy Number 11, The World Bank. Manneh, Jane. (2003). “Qualified Industrial Zones Sector Report.” Export & Finance Bank (June 10). Meade, J. (1952): “External Economies and Diseconomies in a Competitive Situation,” Economic Journal, 62,654-671. McCain, M. N. & Mustard, J. F. (1999). “Early Years Study: Reversing the Real Brain Drain.” Final Report to Ontario Provincial Government. Ministry of Education, Educational Development Center (2001), “Development o f Education: A National Report About Education In The Kingdom o f Saudi Arabia”. General Directorate of Educational Research. Naron, N. K. (1985). “Evaluation of the Perceived Impact of the Unique Components of the Special Emphasis Schools for Corpus Christi Independent School District.” ERIC Document 281961. National Center for Education Statistics. (2000). “Monitoring School Quality: An Indicators Report”. Neukam, B. & Gilman, D. A. (1996) “Language Arts Instruction Time.” ERIC Document 396306. Oinonen, C. (1980). “The Relationship between School-Community Relations and Student Achievement in Elementary and Secondary Schools.” ERIC Document 197425. Pritchett, Lant. (1999). “Has Education Had a Growth Payoff in the MENA Region?” Working Paper Series No. 18. The World Bank: Produced by the Human Development Group and MNSED. Richards, A. and Waterbury, J. (1998). A Political Economy o f the Middle East. Westview Press, United Kingdom. Reed, Stanley. (July 24,2000). “Can Crown Prince Abdullah lead his desert kingdom into the 21st century”? Business Week Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. 167 Robinson, G. E. &Wittebols, J. H. (1986). “Class Size Research: A Related Cluster Analysis for Decision Making”; ERS Research Brief, ERIC Document 274030. Rossmiller, R. A. (1984). “Changing Educational Practice through Continuing Professional Development Programs.” ERIC Document 249609. Rutherford, B., Anderson, B. & Billis, S. (1995). “Parent and Community involvement in Education.” Volume 1: Findings and Conclusions. Studies of Education Reform. ERIC Document 397544. Schneider, B. L. (1985). “Further evidence of school effects.” Journal o f Educational Research, 78,351-356. ESCWA, (1999). “Science and Technology Policies in the Twenty First Century.” United Nations Publications. Senany, A. M. H. (1990), “Development Planning: Public Functions and Private Sector Participation in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.” Unpublished Doctoral Dissertation, Florida State University, Tallahassee. Silvin-Kachala, J., Bialo, E. R. & Langford, J. (1997).“The Effectiveness of Technology in Schools”, 90-97. Report. ERIC Document 413875. Sirageldin, Ismael et al. (1983). “Manpower and International Labor Migration in the Middle East and North Africa.” New York: Oxford University Press. Sirageldin, Ismael and Motaz Khorshid (1995). “Human Resource Development and the Structure of Oil Economies: Critical Issues with Illustrations from Kuwait”. Cairo: Economic Research Forum Working Paper 9518. Stockard, J. & Mayberry, M. (1992). “Effective Educational Environments.” Newbury Park, CA: Corwin. Ministry of Planning (1997). Statistical Yearbook: Central Department of Statistics, Saudi Arabia. Sonbul, S. A. (1993), “Computer-based Technology Transfer: An Analysis o f the Human Resource Dimension as it Relates to the Saudization of CMIS Personnel In Saudi Arabia. Unpublished Doctoral Dissertation: The George Washington University, Washington, DC. Stuck, G. B. & White, K. P. (1992). “Maximizing Time to Teach and Time to Learn.” ERIC Document 373402. Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. 168 Survey of Economic and Social Developments in the ESCWA Regions: United Nations, N. Y. 2000. Taylor, C. (1997). “The Effect of School Expenditures on the Achievement of High School Students: Evidence from NELS and the CCD.” ERIC Document 409358. Tekere, M. (May 10-12,2000). “Export Development and Export-led Growth Strategies: Export Processing Zones and The Strengthening of Sustainable Human Development [SHD].” ICTSD Globalization Dialogues'. African Meeting-Discussion Notes. Africa, Windhoek. The Educational Development Resource Center (2001). Student Feedback Questionnaire Items, http://hednet.polyu.edu.hk The Higher Educational System in the Arab States (1991). Development of S&T Indicators. Wendling, W. & Cohen, J. (1980). “The Relationship of Education Resources to Student Achievement levels in New York State.” ERIC Document 2022176. UNESCO Institute for Statistics—October 2002. UNDP Arab Fund for Economic & Social Development, Arab Human Development Report, 2002. World Development Indicators (2000). World Data on Education (WDE), International Bureau of Education: IV Edition 2001 (CD-ROM). Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission.

Linked assets

University of Southern California Dissertations and Theses

Conceptually similar

PDF

A comparative examination of the impact of business -government relations on labor market reform in Egypt and Mexico, 1975--1995

PDF

Globalization and the decline of the welfare state in less developed countries

PDF

By sea: The port nexus in the global commodity network (the case of the West Coast ports)

PDF

Analysis of the role of government in Taiwan's industrialization and economic development

PDF

Before and after reform: The effects of structural adjustment on women's employment in Latin America

PDF

An empirical analysis of foreign aid and the provision of international public goods

PDF

The Role Of The State In The Development Of The Indonesian Textile And Garment Industries

PDF

Context is everything: An empirical study of institutions, instability and economic growth

PDF

Dialectical feminism and contradictory economic systems: Campesina daily life from Somoza to Aleman

PDF

She Works Hard For The Money: Consumerism And The Movement Of Housewives Into Wage Work

PDF

The political economy of Turkish Islamism and secularism: The role of preference falsification in the establishment of Kemalist secularism and the polarization of Turkish public opinion on the pu...

PDF

Economic transition, micro- and small -scale enterprise in Zimbabwe, and the significance of participatory development to institutional economics

PDF

Essays in environmental policy

PDF

Infrastructure investment and regional productivity of the manufacturing industries in Mexico

PDF

Farewell to the empire? National identity, domestic structures, and foreign economic policies of the post -Soviet states

PDF

Health interventions, health status, and labor market outcomes in Indonesia: Three essays

PDF

A multidimensional analysis of regional integration and cooperation: The case of the Economic Community of West African States

PDF

The Interventionist State Revisited: The Political Economy Of State-Business Relations In India

PDF

Effects of a formulary expansion of the use of SSRIs and health care services by depressed patients in the California Medicaid program

PDF

Compliance study of second-generation antipsychotics on patients with schizophrenia

Asset Metadata

Creator Samman, Hatem A. (author)

Core Title Dependence on foreign labor, quality of education and unemployment in the GCC countries: In search of solutions

School Graduate School

Degree Doctor of Philosophy

Degree Program Political Economy and Public Policy

Publisher University of Southern California (original), University of Southern California. Libraries (digital)

Tag Economics, Commerce-Business,economics, general,economics, labor,education, sociology of,OAI-PMH Harvest

Language English

Contributor Digitized by ProQuest (provenance)

Advisor Nugent, Jeffrey B. (committee chair), Brand, Laurie (committee member)

Permanent Link (DOI) https://doi.org/10.25549/usctheses-c16-502066

Unique identifier UC11335768

Identifier 3133333.pdf (filename),usctheses-c16-502066 (legacy record id)

Legacy Identifier 3133333.pdf

Dmrecord 502066

Document Type Dissertation

Rights Samman, Hatem A.

Type texts

Source University of Southern California (contributing entity), University of Southern California Dissertations and Theses (collection)

Access Conditions The author retains rights to his/her dissertation, thesis or other graduate work according to U.S. copyright law. Electronic access is being provided by the USC Libraries in agreement with the au...

Repository Name University of Southern California Digital Library

Repository Location USC Digital Library, University of Southern California, University Park Campus, Los Angeles, California 90089, USA