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University of Southern California Dissertations and Theses
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The Decision Process In College Attendance And Cognitive Dissonance
(USC Thesis Other)
The Decision Process In College Attendance And Cognitive Dissonance
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70-25 ,039
JOHNSON, Bethel Wyckliffe, 1928-
THE DECISION PROCESS IN COLLEGE ATTENDANCE
AND COGNITIVE DISSONANCE.
University of Southern California, Ph.D. , 1970
Education, higher
University Microfilms, A X E R O X Company, Ann Arbor, Michigan
© C op yrigh t by
B E T H E L W Y C K L IFFE JOHNSON
1970
THIS DISSERTATION HAS BEEN MICROFILMED EXACTLY AS RECEIVED
THE DECISION PROCESS IN COLLEGE ATTENDANCE
AND COGNITIVE DISSONANCE
by
B e t h e l W y c k lif f e Jo h n so n
A D i s s e r t a t i o n P r e s e n t e d t o t h e
FACULTY OF THE GRADUATE SCHOOL
UNIVERSITY OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
I n P a r t i a l F u l f i l l m e n t o f t h e
R e q u ire m e n ts f o r t h e D egree
DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY
(E ducation)
J u n e 1970
UNIVERSITY O F SO U TH ERN CALIFORNIA
T H E GRADUATE SC H O O L
UN IV ER SITY PARK
LO S A N G E LE S, C A L IFO R N IA S 0 0 D 7
This dissertation, written by
.................Bethel^ W yck liffe ..J o h n so n ..................
under the direction of Dissertation Com
mittee, and approved by all its members, has
been presented to and accepted by The Gradu
ate School, in partial fulfillment of require
ments of the degree of
D O C T O R OF P H I L O S O P H Y
f f Dean
DISSERTATION COMMITTEE »
PREFACE
The a d m i n i s t r a t i v e d i f f i c u l t i e s o f c o l l e g e e n r o l l
ment o b s e rv e d f o r more t h a n a d e cad e i n d i c a t e t h a t t h e i r
c h a n g in g volume a t any g i v e n i n s t i t u t i o n was s i m i l a r t o
t h e p ro b le m o f a b u s i n e s s and i t s m a rk e t. B u s in e s s h a s
s p e n t f o r t u n e s , h i r e d t h e b e s t i n t e l l e c t s a v a i l a b l e , and
d e v o te d much tim e and eq u ip m en t t o e x p e r i m e n t a t i o n i n m ar
k e t i n g r e s e a r c h . Could m a r k e tin g f i n d i n g s be u s e d t o h e lp
h i g h e r e d u c a t i o n a l a d m i n i s t r a t o r s u n d e r s t a n d t h e i r problem ?
I n i t i a l r e s e a r c h e f f o r t s beg an by s e e k i n g m o tiv a
t i o n f o r c h o ic e o f c o l l e g e by s t u d e n t s and r e c o g n i z i n g
w hat m a r k e te r s h av e lo n g known t h a t m o tiv e i s w rap ped i n
t h e s h ro u d o f p s y c h o l o g i c a l o b s c u r i t y . ' I t was h o p e d t h a t
some s u b t l e i n d i c a t o r s m ig h t be i s o l a t e d t h a t w ould p ro v e
t o be f a c t o r s and m ethods in v o lv e d i n s h o r t te r m m ic r o -
cosm ic e n r o llm e n t p r e d i c t i o n f o r c o l l e g i a t e I n s t i t u t i o n s .
The l i t e r a t u r e p ro v e d t h e p ro b le m was n o t new I n I n t e r e s t
t o e d u c a t i o n a l a d m i n i s t r a t o r s and s o c i a l s c i e n t i s t s . S tu
d i e s on v a r i o u s v iew s and a s p e c t s o f t h e p ro b le m h ad been
p u b l i s h e d . E v e n t u a l l y a s t u d y a t E a s t C a r o l i n a C o lle g e
( 1 3 ) , d i s c o u r a g e d f u r t h e r p u r s u i t a lo n g t h i s e x a c t l i n e o f
e n d e a v o r. The f a c t o r s t h a t a f f e c t t h e d e c i s i o n I n v o lv e d In
li
c h o i c e of c o l l e g e by a h ig h s c h o o l g r a d u a t e a r e num erous,
and a t t e n t i o n t u r n e d t o t h e t h e o r y o f d e c i s i o n making i t
s e l f . T h e re , d i s s o n a n c e r e s u l t i n g from t h e d e c i s i o n and
i t s i m p l i c a t i o n s f o r t h e p o s t d e c i s i o n a l p e r i o d t u r n e d a t
t e n t i o n t o t h e d i s s o n a n c e e f f e c t s on r e t e n t i o n r a t h e r t h a n
t h e r e c r u i t m e n t a s p e c t s o f e n r o l l m e n t . S p e c i f i c a l l y t h e
e x p e r i m e n t a l p o r t i o n o f t h i s d i s s e r t a t i o n was a s t u d y of
t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p s betw een d isso n a n c e " 1 * and s t u d e n t p e r s i s
t e n c e i n c o l l e g e .
I n a d d i t i o n t o th a n k i n g my many c o u n s e l o r s a t USC
f o r t h e i r p a t i e n c e and i n v a l u a b l e g u id a n c e , a g r e a t many
o t h e r p e o p le a t t h e i n s t i t u t i o n s ^ , s t u d i e d c o o p e r a te d i n a
m ost g r a c i o u s m anner. Such c o o p e r a t i o n I s a v e r y e n c o u r a g
i n g s i g n of an u n d e r l y i n g b e n e v o le n t p u r p o s e I n H ig h e r Ed
u c a t i o n e x p r e s s e d by t h o s e a c t i v e l y in v o lv e d I n i t .
^ e e page 8 f o r a d e f i n i t i o n o f t h i s te rm a s u se d
i n t h i s p a p e r .
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page
PREFACE................................................................................................................... I I
LIST OF T A B L E S .............................................................................................. v i
LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS............................................................................... v i i
C h a p te r
I . INTRODUCTION .............................................................................. 1
The P roblem and I t s N a tu re
The P ro b lem and I t s Im p o rta n c e
R a t i o n a l e and T h e o r e t i c a l B ackground
A ssu m p tio n s
S ta te m e n t o f N u ll H y p o th e ses
D e f i n i t i o n s o f Terms
O r g a n i z a t i o n o f t h e R em ainder
o f t h e S tu d y
I I . REVIEW OF THE L IT E R A T U R E ............................................... 11
C h oice o f C o lle g e
D ro p o u ts
P r e d i c t i o n o f Academic S u c c e ss
Commitment and D e c i s i o n T h eo ry
Consumer D e c i s i o n T heory
D is s o n a n c e T h eo ry
Summary
I I I . TRANSLATION OF CONSUMER DECISION THEORY
TO ED U C A TIO N ............................................................................... 26
I n t r o d u c t i o n
T h re e S im ple Schemes o f D e c is io n P r o c e s s e s
The I n d i v i d u a l and t h e D e c is io n
Flow C h a rt M odels o f t h e D e c i s i o n P r o c e s s
From M a rk e tin g
From Econom ics
From t h e B e h a v i o r a l S c ie n c e s
From t h e S k i n n e r i a n View
IV. METHODOLOGY................................................................................... 50
S u b j e c t s
A p p a ra tu s
lv
C h a p te r Page
O b j e c t i v i t y o f t h e A p p a ra tu s
V a l i d i t y o f t h e A p p a ra tu s
Scope o f t h e S tu d y
P r o c e d u r e s
S ta te m e n t o f N u l l H y p o th e se s
S t a t i s t i c a l P r o c e d u r e s Used
V. F I N D I N G S ......................................................................................... 63
I n t r o d u c t i o n
T a b le o f F i n d i n g s
V I. SUMMARY, CONCLUSIONS, AND RECOMMENDATIONS . . 70
Summary
The Problem
P r o c e d u r e
F i n d i n g s
C o n e lu s io n s
R ecom m endations f o r C o lle g e s
R ecom m endations f o r F u r t h e r R e s e a rc h
BIBLIOGRAPHY . . .
APPENDIXES . . . .
APPENDIX I
I I
I I I
. .......................................................... 80
...................................................................... 8 4
The P i l o t S t u d y 's Raw D a ta . . 86
The Raw D a t a ........................... 88
The D is s o n a n c e S c o re s . . . . Ill
v
LIST OF TABLES
T a b le Page
1. Sample S i z e s ..................................................................................... 51
2. F i n d i n g s o f t h e P i l o t S tu d y ........................... 64
3 . F i n d i n g s a f t e r One Term ........................... 66
4 . F i n d in g s a f t e r One Y e a r ..................................................... 68
5 . Summary o f R e s u l t s 6 9
v i
LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS
C h a rt Page
1. Time R e l a t i o n b e tw e e n D e c i s i o n and D is s o
n a n c e T h e o r i e s ................................................................ 23
2. A Flow C h a rt o f t h e Second B a s ic Scheme . . . . 27
3. A Flow C h a rt o f t h e T h ir d B a s ic Scheme . . . . 28
4 . A S u g g e s te d C l a s s i f i c a t i o n o f S tu d e n t D e c i
s i o n P r o c e s s e s ................................................................... ..... 32
5. The S im p le M a rk e tin g Form at o f a Flow C h a r t . . 33
6 . The M a rk e tin g Form at o f a Flow C h a r t .............. 34
7 . A Flow C h a rt o f S te p s from P rim a r y t o
S e l e c t i v e M o tiv e s .................................................................... 35
8. A Flow C h a rt Based., on t h e T heory o f S u p p ly
and D e m a n d ........................................................................... 36
9. A More S o p h i s t i c a t e d Economic View ........................... 37
10. A W urzburg D e c i s i o n P r o c e s s Flow C h a rt . . . . 39
11. A K a to n a D e c is io n P r o c e s s Flow C h a r t .............. 40
12. A L a z a r s f e l d - 1935 Form at o f a D e c is io n
P r o c e s s Flow C h a r t ...................................................... 42
13. Components o f a n A c t ....................................................... 43
14. A N i c o s i a Type C om prehensive S c h e m e ................... 45
15* A Flow C h a rt t o D e p ic t I n t e r c o l l e g i a t e
T r a n s f e r o r D r o p o u t ......................... 46
16. The D e c is io n F u n n e l ...................... 47
v i i
CHAPTER I
INTRODUCTION
The P roblem and I t s N a tu re
The s p e c i f i c n a t u r e o f t h e p ro b lem i s c l o s e l y r e
l a t e d t o t h e n a t u r e o f man h i m s e l f . The b e h a v i o r o f a
h e a l t h y human i s f a r l e s s c e r t a i n t h a n t h a t o f an I n s a n e
p e r s o n . T h is I s due t o t h e a d a p t a b i l i t y o f man t o c h an g es
I n h i s e n v iro n m e n t and w i t h i n h i m s e l f . O fte n h e i s r e
q u i r e d t o c h o o se b etw een a l t e r n a t i v e s and c o n t i n u e w ith
t h e c o n s e q u e n c e s o f t h a t c h o ic e o r com m itm ent} b u t due t o
h i s a d a p t a b i l i t y ^ he f r e q u e n t l y can r e v i s e h i s d e c i s i o n
o n ly a s h o r t tim e l a t e r t o m odify t h e s e c o n s e q u e n c e s . The
p ro b le m o f p r e d i c t i n g w hich s t u d e n t s w i l l p r o b a b l y c o n t i n u e
i n c o l l e g e a f t e r e n t r a n c e i s u s u a l l y s t u d i e d h i s t o r i c a l l y
and any p r e d i c t i o n I s b a s e d p r i m a r i l y on academ ic p e r f o r m
an ce w i t h l i t t l e r e g a r d t o t h e e f f e c t o f h i s com m itm ent.
Commitment I s c o v e r t and n o t e a s i l y q u a n t i f i e d o r
m easured t o a s s i s t i n p r e d i c t i n g d r o p o u ts s i n c e I t i s a
m e n ta l c o n s t r u c t l a c k i n g m a t e r i a l s u b s ta n c e . The o b v io u s
way t o m easu re commitment I s t o r e c o r d how lo ng a s t u d e n t
i s e n r o l l e d and how w e l l he p e r f o r m s . T h is i s s i m i l a r t o
d e s t r u c t i v e sa m p lin g I n t h a t I t p r o v i d e s no c r i t e r i a f o r
1
2
c o r r e c t i o n u n t i l f a i l u r e i s d i s c o v e r e d . I f t h e d i r e c t meas
u r e o f commitment i s n o t p r a c t i c a l to d a y , one o f t h e c o n s e
q u e n ce s of commitment h a s been m easu red and r e p o r t e d i n t h e
l i t e r a t u r e as c o g n i t i v e d i s s o n a n c e . D is s o n a n c e , w hich i s
t h e s h o r t e n e d form o f t h i s te rm , may be c o n s i d e r e d a s a
m omentary m easu re o f t h e d i s c o r d a n t e le m e n ts i n t h e c o g n i
t i o n o f t h e s t u d e n t w hich m ight c a u s e him t o r e v e r s e o r
m o d ify h i s commitment t o t h e d e c i s i o n t o a t t e n d a s p e c i f i c
c o l l e g e ( s e e d e f i n i t i o n , p age 8 ) . W hile d i s s o n a n c e l i k e
commitment a l s o i s a m en tal c o n s t r u c t , d e f i n i t e r u l e s e x i s t
w hich can be f o llo w e d i n d e v i s i n g i t s m easurem en t. M easu r
in g s t r e n g t h o f commitment t h r o u g h d i s s o n a n c e and p r o b a b i l
i t y i s s i m i l a r t o m e a su rin g t h e s t r e n g t h o f a c h a i n . The
b r e a k i n g s t r e n g t h o f a c h a i n , w i r e , e t c . i s p r e d i c t e d on
t h e b a s i s o f s i m i l a r sam p les w hich b r e a k d u r i n g t e s t i n g .
I t i s t h e v a r y i n g c o n d i t i o n a s s o c i a t e d w i t h t h e b r e a k t h a t
a c t u a l l y i s m ea su re d t o c a l c u l a t e t h e s t r e n g t h o f o t h e r
c h a i n s . S i m i l a r l y i f d i s s o n a n c e can be a s s o c i a t e d e m p i r i
c a l l y w i t h th e b ro k e n commitment th e n t h a t m easure may be
u s e f u l t o p r e d i c t t h e s t r e n g t h o f s t u d e n t s ' com m itm ents t o
a t t e n d a s p e c i f i c c o l l e g e . T h is s tu d y a t t e m p t s t o show
t h a t an e m p i r i c a l r e l a t i o n can e x i s t b e tw ee n d i s s o n a n c e a s
m easu red I n t h e s e e x p e r im e n ts and t h e r e t e n t i o n o f s t u d e n t s
i n c o l l e g e . D e c i s i o n t h e o r y and i t s r e l a t i o n t o d i s s o n a n c e
i s re v ie w e d a s i m p o r t a n t b a ck g ro u n d f o r u n d e r s t a n d i n g r e
t e n t i o n d e c i s i o n s by s t u d e n t s and m odels a r e p r e p a r e d t o
3
I l l u s t r a t e r e l a t i o n s h i p s and o r g a n i z a t i o n th o u g h t t o e x i s t .
Some q u e s t i o n s t o be answ ered a r e :
1. I s h i g h d is s o n a n c e a s s o c i a t e d w ith e a r l y d r o p o u ts ?
2. How h i g h must d i s s o n a n c e be b e f o r e I t i n d i c a t e s
p o t e n t i a l d r o p o u ts ?
3. I s d i s s o n a n c e a s s o c i a t e d w ith c h o ic e o f m a jo r as
w e l l a s c h o ic e o f c o l l e g e ?
4 . How e a r l y can d i s s o n a n c e p r e d i c t d r o p o u ts ?
The P roblem and I t s I m p o rta n c e
The pro b lem o f r e c r u i t m e n t and r e t e n t i o n i s one o f
t h e p r e s s i n g i s s u e s o f modern h i g h e r e d u c a t i o n . At f i r s t
g l a n c e t h i s p ro b lem may a p p e a r t o be two p ro b le m s , b u t each
i s t h e r e s u l t of a s t u d e n t d e c i s i o n among a p p r o x i m a t e ly t h e
same v a r i a b l e s and i f t h e o v e r s i m p l i f i e d s t a t i c v iew o f
l i f e i s e x chan ged f o r a more dynamic view , e n r o l l m e n t v a r i
a t i o n becomes u n i f i e d a s an e x t e n s i o n o f t h e same p r o c e s s .
I t i s of l i t t l e v a lu e t o s o c i e t y t o r e c r u i t a s t u d e n t t o
c o l l e g e o n ly t o l o s e him d u r i n g t h e f i r s t y e a r o f c o l l e g e ,
y e t o v e r 27 p e r c e n t o f t h e s t u d e n t s d ro p o u t b e f o r e t h e
sophomore y e a r . A n o th e r 15 p e r c e n t do n o t f i n i s h t h e
sophom ore y e a r ( l 6 ) . Loss p r e v e n t i o n i s a s e r i o u s p ro b lem
t o i n s t i t u t i o n s o f h i g h e r e d u c a ti o n t o d a y .
To t h e e x t e n t t h a t h i g h e r e d u c a ti o n i s a s o c i a l and
econom ic I n f l u e n c e on modern c u l t u r e , t o a lm o s t t h a t e x te n t
one can em p h asize t h e im p o rta n c e of u n d e r s t a n d i n g why p e o -
4
p i e c h o o se t o c o n t i n u e t o s tu d y and e n d u re t h e o p p o r t u n i t y
c o s t s w hich i t e n t a i l s . The b e n e f i t s of c o n t i n u i n g a r e
g r e a t b u t n o t im m e d ia te t o s t u d e n t s , but t o s o c i e t y t h e
im m e d ia te b e n e f i t s o f n o t c o n t i n u i n g lo n g enough t o become
a c o l l e g e g r a d u a t e a r e s m a ll by c o m p a riso n w i t h t h e p r o b
a b l e lo n g te rm c o s t s i n t h i s age o f s o p h i s t i c a t e d p l a n s and
m a c h in e s. N i c o s i a w r i t e s :
The s t u d y o f what h e (man o r man a s t h e u l t i m a t e
consum er) d o e s w i l l h e lp t o c l a r i f y o l d (unem ploym ent,
p o v e r t y , j u v e n i l e d e li n q u e n c y , e t c . ) and new (a u to m a
t i o n , l e i s u r e , m e n ta l h e a l t h , e t c . ) s o c i a l and econom ic
p ro b le m s . And t h i s know ledge i s o b v i o u s l y r e q u i s i t e t o
t h e f o r m u l a t i o n and e x e c u ti o n o f f a r s i g h t e d p u b l i c p o l
i c i e s i n d e m o c r a tic a s w e l l a s Communist s o c i e t i e s .
A lth o u g h b u s i n e s s f i r m s h a v e a l r e a d y r e c o g n i z e d t h a t ,
i n o u r s o c i e t y , t h e p ro b lem s t h a t c o n f r o n t man a r e no
l o n g e r e x c l u s i v e l y econom ic, t h e y must c o n ti n u e t h e i r
e f f o r t s t o u n d e r s t a n d t h e s o c i a l and p s y c h o l o g i c a l
n e e d s t h a t h a v e become more u r g e n t . Once, fo o d , c l o t h
in g and s h e l t e r r e q u i r e m e n t s a r e s a t i s f i e d , p r o d u c t s
and b ra n d s and s e r v i c e s m ust a c q u i r e new im ages i f t h e y
a r e t o c a t e r t o t h e s e more u r g e n t n e e d s ( M a r tin e a u -
1957 j G a r d n e r - 1 9 6 2 ) . P e rh a p s i t may even be n e c e s s a r y ,
i n t h e n o t - t o o - d i s t a n t f u t u r e t o be r e a d y t o d e a l w ith
a man who ", . . may d e v o te h i s a t t e n t i o n m a in ly t o t h e
s a t i s f a c t i o n o f w a n ts t h a t do n o t r e q u i r e c o n su m p tio n ,
p r o d u c t i o n , o r d i s t r i b u t i o n . . ." ( F o o t e - 1 9 6 3) . And
upon t h e s a t i s f a c t i o n of t h e s e u l t i m a t e w a n ts — a e s t h e t
i c and e t h i c a l ( C r o c e - 1 9 3 5 ) man w i l l h av e o n ly two c o n
s t r a i n t s : Time, and i t s i n t e l l i g e n t u s e ( e d u c a t i o n )
i n ways o t h e r t h a n w o rk in g , g e t t i n g , s p e n d in g . ( 1 2 :6 )
A ll i n s t i t u t i o n s o f h i g h e r e d u c a t i o n g iv e h e e d t o
t h e e n r o llm e n t p ro b le m th r o u g h t h e i r v a r i e d a d m is s io n p o l i
c i e s . Some a r e s u f f i c i e n t l y l i b e r a l t o p r o v i d e o p p o r t u n i t y
t o a l l i n o r d e r t o p r e v e n t t h e l o s s . t o s o c i e t y o f a n y who
m ig ht p e r s i s t even a t h i g h c o s t t o t h e m s e lv e s . O th e r s have
r e s t r i c t e d e n r o l l m e n t s t o t h o s e s t u d e n t s who show g r e a t
5
p r o b a b i l i t y o f s u c c e s s b a se d upon t h e p r e d i c t o r s of t h e i n
s t i t u t i o n ' s c h o i c e . O 'D o n n e ll (13) h as r e c e n t l y re v ie w e d
t h i s a s p e c t o f t h e p ro b lem a t C a l i f o r n i a S t a t e P o l y t e c h n i c
C o l le g e , w here p o l i c i e s a r e r e s t r i c t e d b y 'l a w t o a g iv e n
fram e o f r e f e r e n c e s e e k in g t o i d e n t i f y ways t o m axim ize
t h a t i n s t i t u t i o n ' s e f f e c t i v e n e s s i n c o u n s e l i n g and f u t u r e
p o l i c y c h a n g e s . Thus i t i s o b v io u s t h a t t h e p ro b lem i s
r e c o g n i z e d by a l l i n a b ro a d s e n s e b u t t h e a p p ro a c h t o h ig h
r e t e n t i o n t a k e s v a r i e d form s su c h a s a v o id a n c e . P r e v e n t i o n
by a v o id a n c e h a s p r o b a b l y b een t h e most p o p u l a r and r e
s p e c t a b l e a p p ro a c h . When o n ly s t u d e n t s o f t h e h i g h e s t a c a
dem ic a b i l i t y a r e a d m i t te d , t h e p ro b lem o f r e t e n t i o n i s
m in im iz ed o r a v o id e d b u t n o t s o l v e d . Even t h e word m i n i
m ized may be an o v e r s t a t e m e n t s i n c e a c c o r d in g t o Wise (21)
o n ly 53 p e r c e n t o f t h e s t u d e n t s i n th e t o p 20 p e r c e n t i l e
r a n k s g r a d u a t i n g from h i g h s c h o o l e n t e r c o l l e g e , and o n ly
42 p e r c e n t o f h i g h a b i l i t y y o u th (to p 10 p e r c e n t ) g r a d u a t e
from c o l l e g e ,
Thompson (19) h a s r e p o r t e d t h a t t h e co m m itted s t u
d e n t was more p e r s i s t e n t i n h i s m ajo r and i n c o l l e g e a t
te n d a n c e . I f commitment i n c r e a s e s r e t e n t i o n , d i s s o n a n c e
w ould a l s o be e x p e c te d t o be r e l a t e d t o r e t e n t i o n . I f t h e
r e l a t i o n i s q u a n t i f i e d , c o u n s e l o r s may be a b l e t o u s e i t
t o i n c r e a s e r e t e n t i o n s by p o s i t i v e a c t i o n r a t h e r t h a n
a v o id a n c e .
6
R a t i o n a l e and T h e o r e t i c a l B ackground
The f i r s t p h a s e o f th e problem i s t o u n d e r s t a n d and
d e l i n e a t e t h e d e c i s i o n p r o c e s s i n v o lv e d i n c o n t i n u i n g t h e
p u r s u i t o f h i g h e r e d u c a t i o n . Borg ( 2 :1 7 ) p o i n t s o u t t h a t
"much o f t h e b a s i c r e s e a r c h h a v in g i m p l i c a t i o n s f o r e d u c a
t i o n h a s been c a r r i e d o u t by w o rk e rs i n t h e o t h e r b e h a v o r -
i a l s c i e n c e s s u c h a s p s y c h o lo g y and s o c i o l o g y , " and t h e
modern t h e o r y o f o t h e r f i e l d s d o es have m odels o f d e c i s i o n
p r o c e s s e s . F o r econom ic r e a s o n s , m a r k e tin g r e s e a r c h e r s
have f o c u s e d a g r e a t d e a l o f e f f o r t t o p ro d u c e d e c i s i o n
m odels and t h e o r i e s w i t h i m p l i c a t i o n s f o r a p p l i c a t i o n i n
m a r k e tin g . I n p a r t i c u l a r , consum er d e c i s i o n p r o c e s s e s
seem t o be s i m i l a r t o t h e s t u d e n t e n r o llm e n t p ro b le m . The
m a r k e tin g m anager n o t o n ly i s i n t e r e s t e d i n t h e f i r s t s a l e
b u t a l s o i n r e c u r r i n g s a l e s w i t h each con sum er, and s i m i
l a r l y t h e a d m i n i s t r a t o r i s i n t e r e s t e d t h a t e v e r y s t u d e n t
d e c i d e s many tim e s t o c o n tin u e , o r n o t t o c o n t i n u e h i s ed u
c a t i o n a f t e r he g r a d u a t e s fro m h ig h s c h o o l .
The se co n d p h a se o f t h e p ro b le m a t t e m p t s t o m easure
d is s o n a n c e c r e a t e d by t h e commitment t o a t t e n d a p a r t i c u l a r
c o l l e g e . Today, m ost s t u d e n t s i n t h e Los A n g e les a r e a hav e
a f r e e c h o ic e o f s e v e r a l s i m i l a r c o l l e g e s . D iss o n a n c e
t h e o r y would s u g g e s t h ig h d i s s o n a n c e when i m p o r t a n t c h o ic e s
a r e made b etw een s i m i l a r a l t e r n a t i v e s . I n a d d i t i o n , many
o t h e r a t t r a c t i v e a l t e r n a t i v e s a r e open t o s t u d e n t s w h ich
a t t e n d i n g c o l l e g e may p r e c l u d e o r l i m i t . A p r e f e r e n c e
7
s c a l e s h o u ld q u a n t i f y t h e p r e f e r e n c e f o r r e j e c t e d a l t e r n a
tiv e s ., and t h e more r e j e c t e d a l t e r n a t i v e s t h e s t u d e n t l i s t s
t h e h i g h e r h i s d is s o n a n c e s c o r e .
The t h i r d p h a s e o f t h e p ro b le m a t t e m p t s t o e s t a b
l i s h an e m p i r i c a l r e l a t i o n s h i p b etw een d i s s o n a n c e s c o r e and
d r o p o u t s o r p e r s i s t o r s . S e v e r a l n u l l h y p o t h e s e s w ere
t e s t e d t h a t m igh t be e x p e c te d from i n d u c t i v e r e a s o n i n g
b a s e d on t h e m odels d e v e lo p e d . W hile an e m p i r i c a l r e l a
t i o n s h i p may n o t p ro v e a c a u s e and e f f e c t r e l a t i o n s h i p , t h e
q u a n t i t a t i v e k now ledg e s h o u ld p r o v i d e a more r e a s o n a b l e
b a s e f o r o p e r a t i o n a l d e c i s i o n s p a r t i c u l a r l y i n t h e e f f i c i
e n t u s e o f c o u n s e l o r s t o p r e v e n t d r o p o u t s .
A ssu m ptio ns
1. The s t u d e n t i s i n t e r a c t i v e w i t h h i s e n v i r o n
ment .
2. The s t u d e n t i s a c o n s c i o u s l y b e h a v in g s e l f o r
p e r s o n who h a s a t l e a s t t h e p a r t i a l fre e d o m and a b i l i t y t o
make d e c i s i o n s and c o m m itm en ts.
3. D is s o n a n c e c a n be i n d i r e c t l y m easu red .
4 . S tu d e n t b e h a v i o r i n a t t e n d a n c e d e c i s i o n s i s
s i m i l a r to consum er b e h a v i o r i n p u r c h a s i n g d e c i s i o n s .
5. I t i s d e s i r a b l e t o h ave s t u d e n t s c o n t i n u e u n t i l
t h e y g r a d u a t e fro m c o l l e g e .
6. The t h r e e c o l l e g e s , two o f w h ich a r e p r i v a t e ,
a r e s u f f i c i e n t l y s i m i l a r t o o t h e r c o l l e g e s t o a ll o w g e n e r -
a l i z a t l o n s o f t h e f i n d i n g s . ______________________________
8
S ta te m e n t o f N u ll H y p o th e ses
The f i v e f o l l o w i n g n u l l h y p o t h e s e s w ere t e s t e d :
1. The d i s t r i b u t i o n o f s t u d e n t s ' d is s o n a n c e s c o r e s
i s n o t d i f f e r e n t from a n o rm a l form .
2. The mean d i s s o n a n c e s c o re o f s t u d e n t s i n a ma
j o r i s n o t d i f f e r e n t from t h e mean f o r t h e i r c o l l e g e .
3. S tu d e n ts whose d is s o n a n c e s c o r e i s above a v e r
a g e c o n ti n u e t o a t t e n d c o l l e g e as f r e q u e n t l y a s s t u d e n t s
whose d i s s o n a n c e s c o r e i s below a v e r a g e .
4 . S t u d e n ts whose d is s o n a n c e s c o r e i s e q u a l t o o r
more t h a n one s t a n d a r d d e v i a t i o n above t h e c o l l e g e mean
c o n t i n u e t o a t t e n d c o l l e g e a s f r e q u e n t l y a s o t h e r s t u d e n t s .
5. T h e re i s no d i f f e r e n c e b e tw ee n t h e mean d i s s o
nance s c o r e of s t u d e n t s who d ro p out and t h o s e who do n o t
drop o u t o f c o l l e g e .
D e f i n i t i o n s o f Terms
Commitment. — A c tin g on a d e c i s i o n . H ere t h e d e
c i s i o n i s a t t e n d i n g a p a r t i c u l a r c o l l e g e w hich i s n o t t h e
same commitment s i t e d by Thompson (1 9 :5 0 3 -5 0 6 ) o r Templeton,
C onsum er. — O fte n c a l l e d t h e u l t i m a t e consum er b e
c a u s e h e p u r c h a s e s t h e goods o r s e r v i c e f o r h i s own b e n e
f i t , n o t f o r r e s a l e t o make a p r o f i t .
— ^ D i s s o n a n c e . — A m o t i v a t i o n a l t e n s i o n r e s u l t i n g from
two o r more r e l e v a n t c o g n i t i v e e le m e n ts w hich a r e n o t c o n -
9
s i s t e n t ( c o n s o n a n t) w i t h commitment t o a s i n g l e a l t e r n a t i v e .
D iss o n a n c e s c o r e . — The sum o f t h e f i r s t se v e n a n
sw ers t o q u e s t i o n s on E x h i b i t 1, se e page 5 ^ .
D r o p o u t. — A s t u d e n t who d i s c o n t i n u e s a t t e n d a n c e b e
f o r e t h e end o f t h e e x p e r im e n t. W hile he may be a t r a n s f e r
t o a n o t h e r c o l l e g e , h e h a s b een l o s t t o t h e c o l l e g e i n
w hich he o r i g i n a l l y e n r o l l e d and r e p r e s e n t s a l o s s t o them .
F i r s t te rm d r o p o u ts a r e som etim es d i s t i n g u i s h e d i n t h e
l i t e r a t u r e a s " d e f a u l t e r s . " No such d i s t i n c t i o n i s made
h e r e .
F e r s i s t o r . — A s t u d e n t who re m a in s e n r o l l e d u n t i l
h i s g o a l i s a t t a i n e d w h ich i n t h i s e x p e rim e n t means as lo n g
a s h i s a t t e n d a n c e was c h e c k e d .
F JC . — The p u b l i c j u n i o r c o l l e g e s t u d i e d .
1 s t PC. — One o f t h e s m a ll p r i v a t e c o l l e g e s s t u d i e d .
2nd PC. — One o f t h e s m a ll p r i v a t e c o l l e g e s s t u d i e d .
S tu d e n t P e r s o n n e l S e r v i c e Form . — The name g i v e n t o
t h e d is s o n a n c e t e s t a d m i n i s t e r e d i n t h i s s t u d y .
O r g a n i z a t i o n o f t h e R em ainder o f t h e S tudy
I n C h a p te r I I , t h e l i t e r a t u r e i s re v ie w e d t o p r e
s e n t s i x a s p e c t s o f t h e p ro b le m and r e l a t e d t h e o r i e s .
I n C h a p te r I I I , t h e t h e o r i e s p r e s e n t e d i n C h a p te r
10
I I and o t h e r s a r e a p p l i e d t o t h e p ro b le m and m odels o r
schem es c o n s t r u c t e d t o i l l u s t r a t e t h e c o m p le x ity o f t h e
p ro b lem and l i m i t a t i o n s i n h e r e n t i n t h e p ro b lem .
I n C h a p te r IV, t h e d e s i g n and c o n d u c t o f t h e e x p e r
im en t i s p r e s e n t e d . E x h i b i t s o f t h e a p p a r a t u s a r e i n
c lu d e d , and i t s o b j e c t i v i t y and v a l i d i t y i s d i s c u s s e d .
I n C h a p te r V, t h e f i n d i n g s o f t h e s t u d y a r e p r e
s e n t e d w i t h i n t h e i r c h r o n o l o g i c a l s e t t i n g s and sum m arized.
I n C h a p te r V I, t h e summary, c o n c l u s i o n s and recom
m e n d a tio n s a r e p r e s e n t e d .
The b i b l i o g r a p h y w h ich f o l lo w s i s composed o f p e r
t i n e n t r e f e r e n c e s and s e l e c t e d e x p e r im e n ts i n v o l v i n g d i s s o -
nanc e .
The t h r e e a p p e n d ix e s w hich f o l lo w c o n t a i n d a t a u s e d
i n t h e s t u d y .
CHAPTER I I
REVIEW OF THE LITERATURE
O nly a few y e a r s ago t h e l i t e r a t u r e p e r t i n e n t t o
t h i s s tu d y was a lm o s t n o n e x i s t e n t b u t to d a y an e x h a u s t i v e
s t u d y of t h e r e c e n t l i t e r a t u r e w ould be beyond t h e bounds o f
r e a s o n . F o r tu n a te ly ., s e v e r a l s t u d i e s o f t h e l i t e r a t u r e
h av e been c o m p ile d on d i f f e r e n t a s p e c t s o f t h e p ro b le m and
t h e i r I n c l u s i o n w i l l h e l p t o make t h e s tu d y c o m p le te . Of
n e c e s s i t y many p a p e r s w ere o m itte d a s b e in g more o f th e
same ty p e o f s t u d y n o t c o n t r i b u t i n g new e s s e n t i a l I n s i g h t s .
The f o l lo w in g s i x a s p e c t s o f t h e p ro b le m h a v e r e l a t e d l i t
e r a t u r e w hich a r e b r i e f l y re v ie w e d :
1. C hoice o f C o lle g e
2. D ro p o u ts
3 . P r e d i c t i o n o f Academic S u c c e ss
4 . Commitment and D e c i s i o n T h eo ry
5. Consumer D e c i s i o n T h eo ry
6 . D is s o n a n c e T heory
C h o ic e o f C o lle g e
Napp (10:4-1-45) r e p o r t e d tw e n ty - s e v e n f a c t o r s r a t e d
m ost i n f l u e n t i a l , t h e same number a s l e a s t i n f l u e n t i a l an d
e i g h t as o f i n t e r m e d i a t e i n f l u e n c e i n th e s t u d e n t ' s d e c i
s i o n t o a t t e n d E a s t C a r o l i n a C o l le g e . Among t h e f a c t o r s
I n v e s t i g a t e d w e re : r e l a t i v e s ; s c h o o lm a te s ; l o c a l s c h o o l
g u id a n c e ; c o l l e g e day c o n t a c t s ; v i s i t s t o t h e campus;
11
12
f r i e n d s ; o r a l , w r i t t e n , and p i c t o r i a l m edia; c o s t ; g e o g ra p h
i c a l f a c t o r s ; a t h l e t i c pro g ram s; s o c i a l l i f e ; r e c r e a t i o n a l
p ro g ra m s ; academ ic c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s ; f r i e n d l i n e s s o f c o l l e g e
p e r s o n n e l ; and s t a t e i n s t i t u t i o n a l s t a t u s . I n a s i m i l a r
vane M o rris o n ( 9 :2 6 5 -2 7 0 ) s t u d i e d h i g h s c h o o l s e n i o r s '
r e a s o n s f o r t h e i r c h o ic e o f c o l l e g e . As a r e s u l t o f a
s t u d y d u r i n g t h e y e a r s '6 2 - '6 5 , he p r e p a r e d an i n s t r u m e n t
o f 148 r e a s o n s . By t h e method o f f a c t o r a n a l y s i s be found
t h a t t h e 116 l i b e r a l a r t s h ig h s c h o o l g r a d u a t e s b a se d t h e i r
c h o ic e o f c o l l e g e on f i v e f a c t o r s . How " S tu d e n t Freedom"
( t h e h i g h e s t p e r c e n t a g e s c o r e o f 16 p e r c e n t ) i s r e l a t e d t o
i t s s u b c a t e g o r i e s o f "A dm issions P u b l i c a t i o n s , C a ta lo g u e s ,
and C o rre s p o n d e n c e " i s d i f f i c u l t t o j u s t i f y . P e rh a p s h i s
r e v ie w o f t h e l i t e r a t u r e i s more r e a s o n a b l e when h e w r i t e s ,
"S eem in g ly , t h e r e s u l t s o f how s t u d e n t s choose t h e i r c o l
l e g e s s u g g e s t s l i t t l e i n t r e n d s , p a t t e r n s , o r s e l e c t i o n
c r i t e r i a w hich c o u ld be u s e d as g u i d e l i n e s by t h o s e i n
v o lv e d i n p r e - c o l l e g e c o u n s e l i n g . "
D ropouts
S m ith (16) made a good summary o f t h e l i t e r a t u r e in
1963 b u t ack n o w led g es i t i s s c a r c e i n h i g h e r e d u c a t i o n . I n
t h e l o c a l e n g i n e e r i n g s c h o o l t h a t he s t u d i e d a b o u t 15 p e r
c e n t d ro p p e d d u r i n g e a c h o f t h e f i r s t two te r m s and o n ly
a b o u t 27 p e r c e n t g r a d u a t e d . Most o f t h e o t h e r s t u d e n t s
d ro p p e d d u r i n g te r m s t h r e e , f o u r , o r f i v e . Most o f t h e r e
13
s e a r c h a t t h i s tim e h a d b e en aim ed a t d e te r m i n i n g b a s i c
s t u d e n t r e a s o n s f o r w it h d r a w a l . Armed w i t h su c h k no w led g e,
i t was h o p ed t h a t f u t u r e e d u c a t i o n a l and s t u d e n t p e r s o n n e l
s e r v i c e s c o u ld m in im ize w i t h d r a w a l s . C o n c lu s io n s w ere b asec
on a c o m p a ris o n o f t h e g ro u p o f s t u d e n t s c o m p le tin g t h e p r o
gram w i t h s t u d e n t s who do n o t .
Boyce ( 3 ’ *17) s i t e s 47 r e f e r e n c e s on d r o p o u t s . He
i s c o n c e rn e d p r i m a r i l y w i t h g r a d e s 7 -1 2 b u t sum m arized t h e
l i t e r a t u r e f o r c o n c l u s i o n s , re c o m m e n d a tio n s, and c a u s e s .
H is s t u d y i s c o m p a ra tiv e and h e l p s t o p r e s e n t a b r o a d e r
view o f t h e p ro b le m i n t h e l i g h t of o t h e r s p e c i a l i z a t i o n s .
He r e c o g n i z e s t h e u n r e l i a b l e n a t u r e o f a n sw e rs t o q u e s t i o n s
a s k i n g t h e s t u d e n t why he d ro p p e d by d e c l a r i n g t h a t t h e
s t u d e n t d o e s n 't know why h i m s e l f . W ith d ra w a l i s n o t t h e
p ro b le m b u t r a t h e r a symptom o f t h e p ro b le m .
P r e d i c t i o n o f Academic S u c c e ss
Wise ( 2 1 :1 - 6 2 ) r e p o r t s on b o th t h e l a s t t o p i c and
p r e s e n t o ne. He i s e x c e l l e n t on b o th b u t p a r t i c u l a r l y im
p o r t a n t i s h i s r e c o g n i t i o n t h a t o n ly 38 p e r c e n t o f t h e
v a r i a n c e i n g r a d e a v e r a g e i s a c c o u n te d f o r i n a m u l t i p l e
c o r r e l a t i o n b e tw e e n s c o r e s on v e r b a l and m a th e m a tic a l a p t i
t u d e , h i g h s c h o o l g ra d e r e c o r d , p e r s o n a l r a t i n g s o f f r e s h
man, and c u m u la tiv e g r a d e p o i n t a v e r a g e o f S t a n f o r d g r a d u
a t e s . T h at l e a v e s 62 p e r c e n t o f t h e v a r i a n c e u n a c c o u n te d
f o r and t h e f a c t t h a t o n ly 43 p e r c e n t o f s t u d e n t s i n t h e
14
t o p f i f t h o f t h e i r h ig h s c h o o l c l a s s e v e r g r a d u a t e d from,
c o l l e g e . He co n clu d es., "We h a v e y e t t o s u c c e e d i n i d e n t i f y
i n g , f o r t h e m a j o r i t y o f c o l l e g e s t u d e n t s , t h e p r i n c i p a l
f a c t o r s w h ich a r e r e l a t e d t o academ ic s u c c e s s . "
The im p o r ta n c e o f t h e l a s t s t a t e m e n t i s e m p h a siz e d
by an a r t i c l e p u b l i s h e d a s l a t e as D ecem ber, 1966. Young
( 2 3 : 1 0- 1 1 ) w r i t e s o f a t h r e e p o i n t p l a n t o p r e v e n t c o l l e g e
f a i l u r e by a to u g h a d m is s io n p o l i c y baBed on t h e u p p e r h a l f
o f t h e h i g h s c h o o l c l a s s , e t c .
O 'D o n n e l l 's (13) s t u d y i s more r e c e n t and u s e s t h e
l a t e s t t r e n d s i n t h e u se o f n a t i o n a l e x a m in a tio n s c o r e s t o
fo rm an in d e x f o r p r e d i c t i o n of s u c c e s s i n v a r i o u s p ro g ra m s,
He a l s o shows t h a t a c hang e o f m a jo r may be h e l p f u l t o r e
t e n t i o n and p r e p a r e d t a b l e s f o r p r e d i c t i n g t h e m ost p r o b
a b l e g r a d e b a s e d on in d e x s c o r e s and m a j o r s . H is summary
of t h e l i t e r a t u r e i s e x c e l l e n t and he n o t e s t h a t a b o u t 22
p e r c e n t o f t h e lo w e s t 30 p e r c e n t o f h i g h s c h o o l g r a d u a t e s
f i n i s h c o l l e g e . H is re v ie w o f t h e l i t e r a t u r e h a s s e v e n d i
v i s i o n s j s t a t i s t i c s on a d m is s io n and r e t e n t i o n , r e a s o n s f o r
s t u d e n t a t t r i t i o n , p r e d i c t o r s o f c o l l e g e s u c c e s s e s , s e l e c
t i v e a d m i s s io n s , p e r s o n a l and p e r s o n a l i t y f a c t o r s i n c o l
l e g e a t t r i t i o n , acad em ic m a jo r and v o c a t i o n a l c h o i c e , and
o t h e r s t u d i e s i n c o l l e g e a c h ie v e m e n t an d a t t r i t i o n .
Most o f t h e p r e d i c t o r s d i s c u s s e d so f a r a r e p r i m a r
i l y b a s e d on t h e s t u d e n t ' s s c h o l a s t i c a b i l i t y i n one fo rm
o r a n o t h e r . W hile t h e p a s t may be p r o l o g u e , B e n t l e y ( l :
15
147 -1 55) o p p o se s a r b i t r a r y u s e of t e s t s c o r e s a s a d m is s io n
c r i t e r i a f o r " c u t o f f s " and he r e v ie w s t h e l i t e r a t u r e s i n c e
1918 c o n c e r n in g "The C h ild Mind M y th ." O th e r r e s e a r c h e r s
h a v e s o u g h t c r i t e r i a i n n o n i n t e l l e c t u a l f a c t o r s t o p r e d i c t
academ ic s u c c e s s , K e arn ey I s one o f t h e s e and she makes
t h e f o l lo w in g o b s e r v a t i o n s :
. . , h i g h s c h o o l g r a d e s a r e r e f l e c t i o n s o f n o n -
l n t e l l e c t l v e f a c t o r s and a p p e a r a l s o t o be i n d i c e s o f
I m p o r ta n t s o c i a l v a r i a b l e s . A chievem ent seems t o be
an e x p r e s s i o n o f t h e s t u d e n t s c h o ic e and t h e p a t t e r n s
o f c h o ic e a r e e n d u rin g and do n o t u n d e rg o s p o n ta n e o u s
c h a n g e . A chievem ent p a t t e r n s a r e c o n t i n u i n g ones and
a r e r e p r e s e n t a t i v e o f t h e s t u d e n t s psychodynam ic o r
g a n i z a t i o n . (8 :1 6 4 )
I f t h e r e I s no b a slB f o r a c a u s e and a f f e c t r e l a
t i o n s h i p b e tw e e n t h e c h i l d ' s mind and h i s G-PA., h e r o b s e r v a
t i o n a b o u t c h o i c e s and c h o ic e p a t t e r n s w ould seem t o l e n d
Im p o r ta n c e t o d e c i s i o n d y n a m ics. C e r t a i n l y I t I s o b v io u s
t h a t many b r i g h t s t u d e n t s n e v e r c o m p le te c o l l e g e w h i l e
many p o o r s t u d e n t s do g r a d u a t e b e c a u s e p e rfo rm a n c e I s t h e
u l t i m a t e c r i t e r i a r a t h e r t h a n a b i l i t y .
I v e y ( 7 :1 9 9 - 2 0 5 ) h a s p o i n t e d o u t t h a t t h e t e c h n i q u e
o f d i s c r i m i n a t e a n a l y s i s makes p o s s i b l e t h e c o n t r o l o f I n
t e r c o r r e l a t i o n s and t h e s tu d y o f t h e u n iq u e p r e d i c t i v e e f
f e c t i v e n e s s o f e a c h o f s e v e r a l v a r i a b l e s . He d i d n o t
I s o l a t e a new t o u c h s t o n e i n t h e p e r s o n a l i t y r e c o r d a s a
p r e d i c t o r o f c o l l e g e s u c c e s s by i t s u s e b u t p o i n t s o u t
t h a t o t h e r p r e d i c t o r s a r e c o n fo u n d e d by i n t e r c o r r e l a t i o n .
16
Commitment and D eclB lon T heory
" E d u c a ti o n a l D e c i s i o n s and Human A s se ssm e n ts " by
T h o rn d ik e ( 1 7 i 103 -1 12) waB p u b l i s h e d a s e a r l y a s November,
1964 and h e s t a t e d some b a s i c p r i n c i p l e s o f d e c i s i o n t h e o r y .
One o f t h e s e i s " D e c is io n s a r e b a s e d J o i n t l y on Ju dgem ents
o f f a c t a s t o w hat w ould o c c u r and Judgem ents o f v a lu e as
t o w hat s h o u ld o c c u r . " He p o i n t s o u t t h a t we m easure t o
make Judgem ent more a c c u r a t e and we b a s e m easurem ent on
p a s t b e h a v i o r . The more r e c e n t t h e I n f o r m a t i o n m easured
t h e b e t t e r f o r p r e d i c t i o n , and w h ile J o i n t p r e d i c t i o n s from
s e v e r a l m e a su re s i s b e t t e r t h a n from a s i n g l e f a c t o r t h e
m u l t i p l e m e a su re s may o v e r l a p . Thus t h e i r p r e d i c t i v e a b i l
i t y I s n o t a d d i t i v e . He a l s o n o t e s t h a t s t a t u s I s e a s i e r
t o p r e d i c t t h a n d i f f e r e n t i a l c h a n g e s .
H i l l s 1 ( 6 :1 7 - 2 2 ) "D eclB lon T h eo ry and C o lle g e
C h o ice " was p u b l i s h e d I n t h e same y e a r . I n I t p r e f e r e n c e
and p r o b a b i l i t y o f s u r v i v a l a r e t h e k e y f a c t o r s I n v o lv e d i n
h e l p i n g t h e s t u d e n t d e c i d e w h ic h c o l l e g e t o a t t e n d . T h is
q u a n t i t a t i v e a p p ro a c h d e p en d s on t h e a v a i l a b i l i t y o f a c t u
a r i a l I n f o r m a t i o n on t h e p r e f e r r e d i n s t i t u t i o n s . At t h a t
t im e , G e o r g ia and M in n e s o ta w ere t h e o n l y s t a t e s w hich
p r o v i d e d r e g r e s s i o n a n a l y s i s f o r t h e i r I n s t i t u t i o n s r e l a t
in g SAT B co res and g r a d e s . T h e re a r e a t l e a s t two p ro b le m s
w i t h t h i s a p p ro a c h . One, i t c a n n o t be v a l i d a t e d , and tw o,
JUBt h a v in g t h e I n f o r m a t i o n d o e s n o t I n s u r e r e a s o n a b l e
r a t h e r t h a n e m o tio n a l u s e o f I t .
17
Hammond (5 *6 54-66 0) w h ile w o rk in g w ith h ig h s c h o o l
s e n i o r s d e c id e d to, "B rin g O rd e r I n t o t h e S e l e c t i o n o f a
C o lle g e " by d e v o ti n g f o u r c l a s s e s t o h e l p i n g i n t h e d e c i
s i o n p r o c e s s . U sin g s i x t e e n f a c t o r s s u c h as c o B t, s i z e ,
s t r e n g t h o f d e p a r tm e n t, In d e p e n d e n t t h i n k i n g , e t c . , he
h e lp e d t h e s t u d e n t w eigh eac h f a c t o r t o - a r r i v e a t a t o t a l
f o r e v e ry i n s t i t u t i o n t h a t h e was c o n s i d e r i n g . He p r o v id e d
f o r i n d i v i d u a l c o u n s e l i n g and r e v i s i o n o f r a t i n g s t o a s s i s t
In t h e f i n a l c h o i c e .
More r e c e n t l y , Rand ( 1 4 :3 4 - 3 9 ) h a s shown I n h i s
" E f f e c t on C o lle g e C hoice S a t i s f a c t i o n o f M atch in g S t u d e n t s
and C o l l e g e s , 1 1 t h a t t h e r e l a t i o n betw een m a tc h in g an d s a t l s -
i s m in im a l. T h is s t u d y t o t e s t hom ogeneous m atch in g a s a
d e c i s i o n c r i t e r i a I n v o lv e d o v e r 7^000 fre s h m e n e n r o l l e d in
28 c o l l e g e s and c a s t s e r i o u s d o u b t t h a t knowing s t u d e n t o r
c o l l e g e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s w i l l In B u re academ ic su c c e sB .
N e lso n (1 1 :1 0 4 6 -1 0 5 0 ) a l s o s u p p o r t s t h i s f i n d i n g a s h i s i n
v e s t i g a t i o n d o e s n o t s u p p o r t S a n f o r d 's (15) s p e c u l a t i o n
t h a t r e s e a r c h on t h e e n v ir o n m e n ta l d e t e r m i n a t e s o f a t t r i
t i o n "m ight o b t a i n e v id e n c e t h a t t h e ( d r o p o u t) phenomenon
had l e s s t o do w i t h f a c t o r s i n t h e s t u d e n t t h a n w i t h a c e r
t a i n c o n d i t i o n i n t h e c o l l e g e i t s e l f . "
O b v io u s ly t h e s u b j e c t i v e o r t h e o b j e c t i v e e le m e n ts
m ust be r e l a t e d i n some way t o a t t e n d a n c e . Thompson ( 1 9 *
503 -5 06) i n a f o l l o w up o f a s t u d y by T em pleto n i n 1961
g i v e s some p o s i t i v e h o p e . T h e i r s t u d i e s o f commitment i n -
18
d l c a t e d t h a t co m m itted B tu d e n ts w ere d i f f e r e n t In t h a t t h e y
w ere more p e r s i s t e n t i n t h e i r m a jo r and more p e r s i s t e n t i n
c o l l e g e . The s tu d y was c o n d u c te d a t D a v is and i n v o lv e d
commitment t o a m a jo r n o t t o t h e c o l l e g e i t s e l f .
T h o re se n and M e h re n s ’ " D e c is io n T h eo ry and V oca-
t l o n a l C o u n s e lin g : I m p o r ta n t C o n c e p ts and Q u e s t i o n s , " i s an
e x c e l l e n t a r t i c l e on d e c i s i o n t h e o r y and th e n e ed t o u s e i t
i n c o u n s e l i n g n o t J u s t assum e t h e c l i e n t had a d e q u a te d e c i
s i o n s t r a t e g y . They s i t e a number o f r e f e r e n c e s and p r e
s e n t a model b a se d on u t i l i t y and p r o b a b i l i t y as f o l l o w s :
One o f t h e m ost w id e ly a c c e p t e d d e c i s i o n m odels i s
one t h a t com bines t h e i d e a o f u t i l i t y and s u b j e c t i v e
p r o b a b i l i t y . S u b j e c t i v e p r o b a b i l i t y r e f e r s t o w hat t h e
p e r s o n h i m s e l f t h i n k s h i s c h a n c e s f o r B u c ce ss a r e f o r a
p a r t i c u l a r o utco m e. T h is model i s c a l l e d t h e S u b j e c
t i v e E x p e c te d U t i l i t y Model (SEU) (E dw ards, 1 9 6 1 ).
SEU=PjUi w here P1 i s t h e s u b j e c t i v e p r o b a b i l i t y o f an
outcom e and U^ i s t h e u t i l i t y o r d e s i r a b i l i t y of t h e
same outcom e.) When a l l outcom es a r e c o n s i d e r e d , t h i s
q u a n t i t y (SEU) r e p r e s e n t s t h e " d e s i r a b i l i t y " o r " v a lu e "
o f t h a t c o u rs e o f a c t i o n . 'F o r exam ple, a p a r t i c u l a r
c o u r s e o f a c t i o n , su ch as g o in g t o c o l l e g e o r g e t t i n g
m a r r i e d , h a s many p o s s i b l e ou tco m es. E ach outcom e h a s
a u t i l i t y v a l u e (U^) and a s u b j e c t i v e p r o b a b i l i t y (P-l)
a s s o c i a t e d w i t h i t . Com bining u t i l i t y and s u b j e c t i v e
p r o b a b i l i t y a c r o s s a l l p o s s i b l e outcom es g i v e s t h e
v a lu e o r d e s i r a b i l i t y o f a p a r t i c u l a r c o u r s e o f a c t i o n
(SEU). ( 1 8 :1 6 5 -1 7 2 )
O b v io u s ly I t i s d i f f i c u l t t o m easure su c h s u b j e c
t i v e c o n c e p t s . R e s e a r c h r e p o r t e d i n t h e a r t i c l e t r y s t o
r e l a t e s u b j e c t i v e p r o b a b i l i t y t o o b j e c t i v e p r o b a b i l i t y and
s t u d e n t p e r c e p t i o n s . However, t h e a s s u m p tio n t h a t s t u d e n t s
b eh av e i n c o n t r o l l e d ways and a n t i c i p a t e outcom es on t h e
b a s i s o f p r o b a b i l i t i e s and d e s i r a b i l i t y v a l u e s I s d o u b t f u l .
19
I t Beems more p r o b a b l e t h a t
t h e I n d i v i d u a l may r e s p o n d I n many d i f f e r e n t ways due
t o some e n v ir o n m e n ta l e v e n t r e l a t i v e t o c a r e e r p l a n s .
He may se e k t o r e d u c e t h e a n x i e t y o f d i s s o n a n c e c r e a t e d
by t h i s e v e n t th r o u g h c h a n g in g some o f h i s b a s i c s e l f -
p r e m ls e s o r h e may se e k new o c c u p a t i o n a l p l a n s o r a l
t e r n a t i v e s . What he a c t u a l l y d o e s do i s what n e e d s I n
v e s t i g a t i n g , ( l 8 : l 6 5 ~1 7 2 )
Consumer D e c i s i o n T heory
One o f th e books I n t h e P r e n t i c e - H a l l B e h a v i o r a l
S c ie n c e s I n B u s in e s s S e r i e s h a s a fo re w o rd by H e r b e r t A.
Simon, who i s t h e e d i t o r o f t h e s e r i e s . I f t h e s t u d e n t ' s '
b e h a v i o r I s t h a t o f a consum er th e n Mr, S im o n s 1 words i n d i
c a t e t h e Im p o rta n c e o f t h i s book t o o u r s t u d y . He w r i t e s :
Consumer b e h a v i o r — even t h e b e h a v i o r o f a s i n g l e
c o n su m e r— I s su c h a com plex sy ste m . F o r some p u r p o s e s
we may be s a t i s f i e d w ith b r o a d s t a t i s t i c a l a g g r e g a t e s
sum m arizing t h e b e h a v i o r o f l a r g e num bers o f c o n su m e rs.
Economic s t a t i s t i c s and even t h e t y p i c a l s a l e s d a t a o f
t h e i n d i v i d u a l b u s i n e s s f i r m a r e of t h i s k i n d . But
f o r o t h e r p u r p o s e s we may n e ed t o u n d e r s t a n d t h e l n t r l -
• c a t e p r o c e s s o f d e c i s i o n t h a t l e a d s up t o a s i n g l e p u r
c h a s e o r a s e q u e n c e o f p u r c h a s e s by one con sum er. We
may w ant t o know what I n f o r m a t i o n b e a r s upon t h e c o n
s u m e r 's c h o ic e o f p r o d u c t o r o f b ra n d , upon t h e tim e
and p l a c e o f h i s p u r c h a s e .
We may w ant t h i s more m ic r o s c o p ic p i c t u r e i n o r d e r
t o a d v an c e f u n d a m e n ta l b e h a v i o r a l s c i e n c e : To com pare
co nsum er b u y in g d e c i s i o n p r o c e s s e s w i t h o t h e r d e c i s i o n
p r o c e s s e s — v o t i n g , Job c h o i c e , o r w hat n o t — t h a t p e o p le
e n g ag e i n . Or, we may w ant t o u n d e r s t a n d t h e p r o c e s s
i n d e t a i l b e c a u s e we w is h t o i n f l u e n c e i t : t o a d v e r
t i s e e f f e c t i v e l y , t o im prove t h e d e s i g n o f o u r p r o d u c t ,
t o p r i c e I t c o r r e c t l y . ( 1 2 : 6 )
W hile t h i s I s t h e o n ly w ork c i t e d , i t s h o u ld be
n o te d t h a t "Consumer D e c i s i o n P r o c e s s e s : M a rk e tin g and Ad
v e r t i s i n g I m p l i c a t i o n s " was r e c e n t l y p u b l i s h e d ( i n 1 9 6 6 )
and c o n t a i n s a t w e n t y - f i v e p a g e b i b l i o g r a p h y . I n t h e w ords
20
o f N io o B la h i m s e l f ( l 2 i x l ) , "I have made a g r e a t e f f o r t t o
p r e p a r e a l a r g e b i b l i o g r a p h y of p u b l i s h e d and u n p u b l is h e d
m a t e r i a l f o r t h e r e a d e r . . . . "
The s u b j e c t c o n te n t o f t h i s book I s c o v e re d I n I t s
r e l a t i o n s h i p to t h i s p a p e r In a s e p a r a t e c h a p t e r e n t i t l e d
" T r a n s l a t i o n o f Consumer D e c is io n T h eo ry to E d u c a tio n . 1 1
The l a s t p o r t i o n of t h e book I s d e v o te d t o m a th e m a tic a l
m od els w hich a r e beyond t h e sc o p e o f t h i s d i s s e r t a t i o n .
W ith t h e gro w in g know ledge and u s e o f c o m p u te rs , t h e s e
e q u a t i o n s may be u s e f u l t o some f u t u r e I n v e s t i g a t o r o f e n
r o l l m e n t s .
D is s o n a n c e T h eo ry
I n E x p l o r a t i o n I n C o g n i ti v e D iss o n a n c e (4) F e s t l n g -
e r 'B t h e o r y i s re v ie w e d , m o d if ie d , and e x te n d e d . The l i t
e r a t u r e o f t h e f i e l d i s r e v ie w e d i n a s o p h i s t i c a t e d and
th o r o u g h m anner. E x p e rim e n ts a r e d i s c u s s e d c r i t i c a l l y f o r
l i m i t a t i o n s and c o n t r i b u t i o n s t o t h e t h e o r y and c o m p a ris o n s
a r e made w i t h o t h e r model e x p l a n a t i o n s o f phenom ena. A l l
t o g e t h e r h e c i t e s one h u n d re d and t h l r t y - B e v e n r e f e r e n c e s .
S in c e t h a t p u b l i c a t i o n , a few e x p e r im e n ts h a v e been p u b
l i s h e d b u t t h e y w i l l n o t be r e v ie w e d h e r e a s t h i s i s n o t a
d e f e n s e o r e x h a u s t i v e t r e a t m e n t o f d i s s o n a n c e b u t an a t
te m p te d a p p l i c a t i o n t o an o p e r a t i o n a l s i t u a t i o n .
W hile t h e t h e o r y i s c o n c e rn e d w i t h a t t i t u d e c h an g e
and e x p o s u re t o I n f o r m a t i o n , t h e f i r s t ty p e e x p e rim e n t men-
21
t l o n e d i n th e f o l l o w i n g q u o te i s t h e ty p e o f m easurem ent
w hich waB a tte m p te d In t h i s s t u d y . The f o l l o w i n g q u o te I s
v e r y p e r t i n e n t :
The e x p e r im e n ts d i s c u s s e d r e p r e s e n t t h r e e g e n e r a l
k i n d s o f I n v e s t i g a t i o n s : ( l ) t h o s e t h a t can be view ed
a s " f r e e - c h o i c e " s i t u a t i o n s , (2) t h o s e t h a t In v o lv e
s i t u a t i o n s o f " f o r c e d c o m p l i a n c e ," and (3) th o s e t h a t '
i n v o l v e " e x p o s u re " t o i n f o r m a t i o n .
The " f r e e - c h o i c e " s i t u a t i o n s g e n e r a l l y In v o lv e a
c h o i c e betw een a t t r a c t i v e o r p o t e n t i a l l y a t t r a c t i v e
a l t e r n a t i v e s w hich d i f f e r a lo n g th e d im e n s io n o f a t
t r a c t i v e n e s s o r some o t h e r d im e n s io n . The s u b j e c t I n
t h e s e e x p e r im e n ts p re s u m a b ly w a n ts to make a c h o ic e
b e c a u s e o f t h e b e n e f i t s o r p o t e n t i a l b e n e f i t s a c c r u in g
t o t h e c h o ic e , and l i t t l e o r no e x t e r n a l p r e s s u r e i s
n e e d e d t o p ro d u c e t h e c h o i c e , D is s o n a n c e i n t h e s e
s t u d i e s I s u s u a l l y c o n c e iv e d o f a s a f u n c t i o n o f t h e
r e l a t i v e number o f c o g n i t i o n s f a v o r i n g t h e unchosen
. a l t e r n a t i v e . ( 4 :2 1 )
I t Beems r e a s o n a b l e t o assum e t h a t d is s o n a n c e i s a
p a r t o f t h e a t t e n d a n c e d e c i s i o n i n view o f t h e f o llo w in g
quot e :
E v id e n ce on t h e e f f e c t s o f d i s s o n a n c e h as shown
t h a t I t b e a r s on: ( l ) opl-n-lons on v a r i o u s I s s u e s ,
(2) e v a l u a t i o n s o f p e r s o n s , g r o u p s , and a c t i v i t i e s ,
(3) s a l i e n c e o f I n f o r m a t i o n , (4) r e c a l l o f i n f o r m a t i o n ,
(5 ) a c c e p ta n c e o f i n f o r m a t i o n , (6) s e e k in g of and v o l
u n t a r y e x p o s u re t o i n f o r m a t i o n , (7) p e r c e p t u a l d i s t o r
t i o n , (8) c h an g e i n b e h a v i o r a l com m itm ent, and (9)
m o t i v a t i o n .
I n s h o r t , t h e t h e o r e t i c a l s t a t e m e n t h a s shown i t
s e l f t o be v e r y p o w e r f u l i n t h e u n d e r s t a n d i n g and p r e
d i c t i o n o f a v a r i e t y o f b e h a v i o r I n a v a r i e t y of s i t u
a t i o n s . I t I s t h i s v e r y power t h a t w ould seem t o d e
mand t h e c o n t i n u e d e l a b o r a t i o n and r e f i n e m e n t of t h e
t h e o r y . (4 :3 0 9 )
Of p a r t i c u l a r I n t e r e s t ; I n r e t e n t i o n o f s t u d e n t s , s h o u ld be
Ite m s f i v e , s i x , s e v e n and e i g h t . T hese seem d i r e c t l y r e
l a t e d t o p o r t i o n s Of t h e March and Simon Type flo w c h a r t
on i n t e r c o l l e g i a t e t r a n s f e r .
22
T h a t d i s s o n a n c e 1 b a r o u s e d and w hat t o m e a su re seems
t o be su m m arized I n t h e f o l l o w i n g q u o t e i
Some o f t h e s u p p o r t e d d e r i v a t i o n s c o n c e r n i n g t h e a r o u s a l
o f d i s s o n a n c e I n a " f r e e - c h o i c e " s i t u a t i o n a r e t h a t ( l )
A c h o ic e b e tw e e n a t t r a c t i v e a l t e r n a t i v e s c r e a t e s d i s
s o n a n c e ; (2 ) D is s o n a n c e a r i s i n g fro m a c h o i c e I s p r o p o r
t i o n a l t o t h e a t t r a c t i v e n e s s o f t h e r e j e c t e d a l t e r n a
t i v e ; ( 3 ) D is s o n a n c e a r i s i n g from a c h o i c e I s p r o p o r
t i o n a l t o t h e q u a l i t a t i v e d i s s i m i l a r i t y o f t h e c h o i c e
a l t e r n a t i v e s ; and (4 ) D is s o n a n c e a r i s i n g fro m a c h o ic e
I s p r o p o r t i o n a l t o t h e I m p o r ta n c e o f t h e c h o i c e .
( 4 :3 0 8 )
How t o m e a su re i s a n o t h e r p ro b le m w hich t h e ques-*
t l o n n a i r e I n C h a p te r IV a t t e m p t s t o s o l v e by c o m p a rin g u n
c h o s e n a l t e r n a t i v e s w i t h t h e c h o i c e t o w h ic h t h e s t u d e n t
h a s c o m m itte d h i m s e l f . The sy s te m u s e d I n t h i s s t u d y seem s
t o be r e a s o n a b l y I n a c c o r d w i t h t h e r e f e r e n c e s c i t e d a b o v e .
To c o n c l u d e t h e r e v i e w o f t h e l i t e r a t u r e p e r h a p s
d i s s o n a n c e t h e o r y s h o u l d be r e l a t e d t o d e c i s i o n t h e o r y . A
s i m p l e m odel o f t h e r e l a t i o n b e tw e e n d e c i s i o n t h e o r y and
d i s s o n a n c e t h e o r y I s p r e s e n t e d I n C h a r t 1. Time I s I n d i
c a t e d by p r o g r e s s i n g fro m l e f t t o r i g h t a s s t u d e n t a c t i v i
t i e s p r o c e e d . A c c o rd in g t o t h e " f u n n e l t h e o r y " ( 1 2 : 1 5 7 -
1 9 1 ) t h e s t u d e n t e l i m i n a t e s v a r i o u s p o s s i b l e s o l u t i o n s
u n t i l h e f i n a l l y n a rr o w s h i s d e c i s i o n t o t h e c h o s e n a c t o f
e n t r a n c e . D is s o n a n c e I s t h e n c r e a t e d by a l l c o g n i t i o n s
t h a t a r e o b v e r s e a n d t h e s t u d e n t s h o u ld b e g i n t o r e d u c e
d i s s o n a n c e I m m e d ia t e l y . I f he I s s u c c e s s f u l , h e w i l l r e
m a in e n r o l l e d a s lo n g a s he c a n o r n e e d s t o b e . T h a t h a p p y
s e t o f c i r c u m s t a n c e s I s d e p i c t e d by' t h e c o n v e r g i n g d o t t e d
23
l i n e s betw een t h e v e r t l c l e d o t t e d l i n e s m arked " e n t r a n c e
and e x i t . " U n h a p p ily , many s t u d e n t s do n o t c o n ti n u e t o r e
m ain co m m itted t o t h e i r o r i g i n a l d e c i s i o n and t h e s o l i d
l i n e s I n d i c a t e t h a t d i v e r g e n t b e h a v i o r i s alB o p o s s i b l e .
D e c i s i o n t h e o r y w ould s u g g e s t t h a t t h e r i g h t h a l f o f C h a rt
1 c o u ld be e x p l a i n e d by c o n s i d e r i n g t h e d e c i s i o n p r o c e s s
a s a r e v e r s i b l e one d e p e n d in g on new c o g n i t i o n s . I n t h e
c a s e of c o l l e g e e n r o llm e n t t h e d e c i s i o n i s n o t an e q u i l i b
riu m w i t h o u t c o n s e q u e n c e s f o r t h e s t u d e n t . I n f a c t , a
c h ang e may n o t seem p r a c t i c a l f o r a t l e a s t a te rm and p e r
h a p s f o r a y e a r . D u rin g t h a t tim e d i s s o n a n c e t h e o r y sh o u ld
be o p e r a t i v e .
Student Acte or Timeline
Dissonance
Theory
Decision Process
Theory and
Variables
Decision Theory
Variables
Exit
Time Relation between Decision
and Dissonance Theories
■ 2 4
Summary
1. The ab u n d an ce o f r e c e n t l i t e r a t u r e I n d i c a t e s
t h a t t h e p ro b le m i s of c u r r e n t w id e s p r e a d I n t e r e s t .
2. F a c t o r s i n t h e c h o ic e o f c o l l e g e a r e num erous
b u t no d e c i s i v e o n e s h av e b e e n I s o l a t e d a s c o n t r o l l i n g
f a c t o r s f o r a m a j o r i t y o f s t u d e n t s . I f t h i s i s t r u e t h e n
i t a l s o seems l o g i c a l t h a t t h e y a r e n o t d e c i s i v e i n c o n
t r o l l i n g r e t e n t i o n ,
3. F a c t o r s i n w ith d r a w a l from c o l l e g e a r e num erous
ar.d no s i n g l e one h a s been I s o l a t e d as c o n t r o l l i n g t h e d e
c i s i o n o f s t u d e n t s t o d i s c o n t i n u e c o l l e g e a t t e n d a n c e .
T h e r e f o r e , t h e c o n t r o l o f t h e d e c i s i o n may be a v a r y i n g
c o m b in a tio n of f a c t o r s f o r e a c h I n d i v i d u a l . P e rh a p s d i s s o
n a n c e may s e r v e a s a u n i f y i n g in d e x o f t h i s c o m b in a tio n of
f a c t o r s and t h e i r I n t e n s i t y .
4 . T h e re i s need f o r a d d i t i o n a l s tu d y f o r p r e v e n
t i o n o f d r o p o u t s a t t h e c o l l e g e l e v e l . The m ajor c u r e t o
d a t e i s n o t a l l o w i n g d o u b t f u l s t u d e n t s t o e n t e r c o l l e g e .
T h is a p p ro a c h p r e v e n t s many s t u d e n t s fro m g r a d u a t i n g and
o n l y m a i n t a i n s t h e c o l l e g e ’s s u c c e s s f u l p e rfo rm a n c e r e c o r d
a t t h e e x p e n se o f t h e B tu d e n t and s o c i e t y .
5 . Commitment h a s b e e n shown t o ' a f f e c t r e t e n t i o n
o f c o l l e g e s t u d e n t s p o s i t i v e l y , b u t t h e m anner and m ethods
of m e a s u rin g o r i n c r e a s i n g t h i s e f f e c t n e e d s f u r t h e r s tu d y .
25
Commitment I s a p a r t o f d e c i s i o n and d i s s o n a n c e t h e o r y .
Commitment I s th e end p r o d u c t of t h e f o r m e r and s t a r t of
t h e l a t t e r , t h e r e f o r e , a n y stu d y o f i t s h o u ld i n c l u d e them .
CHAPTER I I I
TRANSLATION OP CONSUMER DECISION THEORY
TO EDUCATION (1 2 :9 - 1 8 )
I n t r o d u c t i o n
How man makes a d e c i s i o n h a s b e e n s t u d i e d by men of
v a r i o u s d i s c i p l i n e s and u s u a l l y t h e c r i t i c a l e le m e n ts o f
t h e i r d e m ts io n scheme h a v e r e f l e c t e d a b i a s by e m p h a s iz in g
t h e p r i n c i p l e s o f t h e i r d i s c i p l i n e . I n t h i s c h a p t e r some
o f t h e s e v ie w s a r e p r e s e n t e d and d i s c u s s e d a s b a c k g ro u n d
f o r a p p r e c i a t i n g t h e n a t u r e o f t h e s i t u a t i o n b e in g s t u d i e d .
The d e c i s i o n by a s t u d e n t t o a t t e n d c o l l e g e I s p r e
s e n t e d as I t m ight h av e b e e n view ed by men o f t h e s e v a r i o u s
d i s c i p l i n e s . The p r e s e n t a t i o n p r o c e e d s fro m sim p le t o com
p l e x schem es and t h e e x p e r i m e n t a l d e s i g n p r e s e n t e d i n a
l a t e r c h a p t e r r e f l e c t s m ore t h a n one o f t h e s e com plex
schem es. P a r t i c u l a r l y I m p o r ta n t a r e t h e f o l lo w in g c o n c e p ts
i n t h e more c o m p re h e n s iv e schem es:
1. The c o n t i n u i n g n a t u r e o f t h e d e c i s i o n p r o c e s s
i n t h e a t t e n d a n c e d e c i s i o n .
2. S u b j e c t i v e i n f l u e n c e s upon t h e e f f e c t o f s t i m u l i
i n t h e r e c u r r i n g d e c i s i o n .
3. The l i m i t e d number o f p o s s i b l e r e s p o n s e s t o a
s i t u a t i o n dem anding t h e a t t e n d a n c e d e c i s i o n .
26
27
T h re e Sim ple Schemes - o f "D ecision P r o c e s s e s
A v e r y s im p le scheme e n v i s i o n s one s i n g l e f a c t o r as
b e in g t h e c o n t r o l l i n g f a c t o r w hich c a u s e s t h e s t u d e n t t o
d e c i d e p o s i t i v e l y a b o u t c o l l e g e e n t r a n c e . T h is f a c t o r i s
i n t e r n a l and t h e scheme i s d e r i v e d from a s t i m u l u s - r e s p o n s e
l e a r n i n g t h e o r y . A m a th e m a tic a l m odel f o r t h i s scheme i s
y = f ( x ) . I n t h i s e q u a t i o n , y i s t h e c o n s u m e r 's r e s p o n s e
and x i s t h e In d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e o r s i n g l e d e te r m in in g
f a c t o r . T h a t i s t o s a y , t h e s t i m u l u s . The flo w c h a r t o f
t h e schem e w ould be x — > y . T h is scheme h a s p r e d i c t i v e
v a l i d i t y a s lo n g a s h l s t o i ’y re m a in s t h e p r e d i c t o r of t h e
f u t u r e a c t i o n o f s t u d e n t s . T h is scheme c a n n o t be u s e d t o
p r e d i c t r e s p o n s e r e s u l t i n g from new s t i m u l i . I t I s , t h e r e
f o r e , o f l i t t l e v a lu e t o a m anager i n d e v e lo p in g sy ste m s
f o r c o n t r o l l i n g new s i t u a t i o n s . I n t h e s e n s e t h a t I t was
t h e l a s t s t r a w t h a t b ro k e t h e c a m e l 's b a c k , t h i s sim p le
scheme may h a v e c o n s i d e r a b l e v a l i d i t y .
The se c o n d b a s i c scheme i s c a l l e d t h e r e d u c e d
fo rm schem e. E s s e n t i a l l y t h i s schem e I n t r o d u c e s more t h a n
o n e s t i m u l u s a s a d e te r m i n a n t o f b e h a v i o r . A m a th e m a tic a l
m odel w ould be y = f ( x , z , e t c . ) . A flo w c h a r t f o r t h i s
Bcheme w ould b e:
C h a rt 2
28
T h is scheme I s o n ly s l i g h t l y m o re c o m p lic a te d t h a n th e
p r e v i o u s one and q u i t e s i m i l a r t o i t havin g som e o f t h e
same l i m i t a t i o n s . I t i s f u r t h e r c o m p lic a te d b y t h e need
f o r e s t i m a t i n g t h e e f f e c t o f e a c h o f th e v a r i a b l e s and
i g n o r i n g any I n t e r v a r i a b l e e f f e c t s which may e x i s t .
The t h i r d b a s i c scheme i s c a l l e d a s t r u c t u r a l o r
p r o c e s s schem e. The m a t h e m a ti c a l model r e p r e s e n t i n g su c h a
scheme I s a s e r i e s o f e q u a tio n s d e p i c t i n g t h e f u n c t i o n a l i n
t e r r e l a t i o n s n o t o n l y betw een t h e s tim u lu s a n d t h e re s p o n s e ,
b u t a l s o t h e e f f e c t o f one s t i m u l u s upon a n o t h e r s t i m u l u s .
The m a th e m a tic a l model c o n s i s t s o f a s e r i e s o f e q u a tio n s a s
f o l l o w s :
1.
y =
f y (x)
2. X =
fx (z)
3.
z —f z (u,y)
4. u =
f u(y)
And a g r a p h i c a l r e p r e s e n t a t i o n o r flow c h a r t m ig h t lo o k
l i k e t h e f o l l o w i n g :
a
y <------------- x
i
u -----------------* z
C h a r t 3
A v e r b a l e x p l a n a t i o n of t h e s e e q u a tio n s m ig h t r e a d as
f o l l o w s :
29
E q u a tio n 1 s a y s t h a t t h e a t t e n d a n c e d e c i s i o n i n
f a v o r o f a g iv e n c o l l e g e i s a f u n c t i o n o f t h e
m o t i v a t i o n to w a rd t h a t c o l l e g e .
E q u a tio n 2 s a y s t h a t t h e m o t i v a t i o n to w a rd t h a t c o l
l e g e d ep en d s on t h e p r e d i s p o s i t i o n to w a rd I t .
E q u a tio n 3 Bays t h a t t h e p r e d i s p o s i t i o n i n t u r n d e
p e n d s on b o t h h a v in g v i s i t e d t h a t c o l l e g e and
t h e low c o s t o f t u i t i o n .
E q u a t io n 4 s t a t e s t h a t t h e low c o s t o f t u i t i o n d e
p e n d s on t h e d e c i s i o n o f t h e s t u d e n t t o a t t e n d .
I n t h e scheme d e s c r i b e d , a l l v a r i a b l e s a r e b o th d e p e n d e n t
and i n d e p e n d e n t . Of c o u r s e , e a c h phenomenon I n v e s t i g a t e d
w i l l h a v e I t s own s t r u c t u r e and t h e f u n c t i o n a l r e l a t i o n
s h i p s w i l l have t o be d e te r m in e d f o r t h a t s p e c i f i c phenom
ena u n d e r I n v e s t i g a t i o n . The p a r t i c u l a r phenom ena u s e d a s
I l l u s t r a t i o n h e r e may be a l i t t l e weak I n t h a t th e r e l a
t i o n s h i p betw een c o s t o f t u i t i o n and t h e s t u d e n t m aking a
d e c i s i o n t o go t o t h a t c o l l e g e may n o t be t o o o b v io u s .
Time a l s o s h o u ld be n o t e d as a f a c t o r I n t h e r e l a
t i o n s h i p s betw een e a c h o f t h e v a r i a b l e s . One d o e s n o t n e c
e s s a r i l y su p p o se t h a t t h e s e e v e n t s o c c u r i n s t a n t a n e o u s l y as
th e y som etim es a p p e a r i n a s im p le o r r e d u c e d f o m schem e.
The d i s t i n c t a d v a n ta g e o f t h i s l a s t scheme I s I t s m e c h a n is
t i c b a s e . I f t h e m e c h a n ic a l r e l a t i o n s h i p s I n v o lv e d i n t h e
p r o c e s s c a n be e s t a b l i s h e d , t h e n one I s I n a b e t t e r p o s i
t i o n t o p r e d i c t w hat w i l l h a p p e n i f v a r i o u s o f t h e v a r i a b l e *
30
a r e ch an ged. E s s e n t i a l l y t h i s scheme t h e n h as some b a s i s
f o r p r e d i c t i v e v a l i d i t y . The scheme r e c o g n i z e s t h e b a s i c
p r i n c i p l e t h a t t h e w hole i s more t h a n J u s t th e sum o f i t s
p a r t s . A t r a c t o r w i l l p u l l q u i t e e f f e c t i v e l y when a s
sem bled and p r o p e r l y r u n n i n g , b u t i t i s uB elesB i f a l l t h e
p a r t s a r e l y i n g a ro u n d i n a l o t .
N a t u r a l l y t h e m a th e m a tic a l c o m p u ta tio n s m igh t be
q u i t e c o m p lic a te d a lt h o u g h w i t h modern c o m p u ters no d o u b t a
s i m u l a t i o n c o u ld be p r e p a r e d . I t i s p o s s i b l e a l s o t o do
s im p le c a l c u l a t i o n s by m aking b a s i c a s s u m p tio n s and s i m p l i
f y i n g t h e scheme t o a r e d u c e d form e q u a t i o n . The r e s e a r c h e r
should t h e n a t l e a s t r e a l i z e t h a t he h a d done t h i s and would
be a b l e t o i n t e l l i g e n t l y e v a l u a t e t h e l i m i t s of h i s p r e d i c
t i o n s .
The I n d i v i d u a l and t h e D e c is io n
D e c i s i o n s a r e made by I n d i v i d u a l s and n o t by g ro u p s
a lt h o u g h g ro u p s may s e t up p a r l i a m e n t a r y p r o c e d u r e f o r c o l
l e c t i v i z i n g t h e i r a c t i o n s when t h e y v o t e t h e i r i n d i v i d u a l
d e c i s i o n s . T h ese c o n s t r u c t s a r e n e c e s s a r i l y b a se d u p o n a
m ic ro view o f t h e s i t u a t i o n . N i c o s i a s p e n t s e v e r a l p a g e s
d i s t i n c t i v e l y p o i n t i n g o u t t h e d i f f e r e n c e betw een t h e m icro
a n d t h e macro v ie w . However, even h e r e c o g n i z e s t h e n e e d
f o r a g g r e g a t i o n and n o te d t h a t p r e d i c t i o n may be p o s s i b l e .
He p o i n t s o u t t h a t a c o n s t r u c t may r e p r e s e n t an I n d i v i d u a l
o r an a g g r e g a t e o f I n d i v i d u a l s o f a c e r t a i n t y p e . T oday
31
many p e o p l e . f a l l t o r e c o g n i z e th e I n d i v i d u a l and h i s im po r
t a n c e , I n t h e re a lm o f d e c i s i o n m aking he 1 b k i n g and h as
t h e u l t i m a t e and p e r h a p s u n to u c h a b le a u t h o r i t y t o make th e
d e c i s i o n h i m s e l f . However, w h ile a l l men a r e d i f f e r e n t ,
t h e u s e f u l n e s s of t h e s e schem es seems t o l i e In t h e f a c t
t h a t one I s d e a l i n g w i t h a s p e c i f i c t y p e o f o rg a n is m ;
n a m e ly , man, and t o t h e e x t e n t t h a t one can n o t g e n e r a l i z e
from t h e s p e c i f i c t h e u s e f u l n e s s o f t h e sy stem 1 b a t l e a s t
g r e a t l y l i m i t e d .
Flow C h a rt M odels o f t h e D e c i s i o n P r o c e s s
T h ree m ain s o u r c e s o f l i t e r a t u r e on t h e d e c i s i o n
p r o c e s s a r e e x p lo r e d by N i c o s i a . They a r e consum er d e c i
s i o n p r o c e s s i n m a r k e ti n g , i n t h e t h e o r y o f demand o r e co
n o m ic s, and t h e b e h a v i o r a l s c i e n c e s , A s h o r t s u b c h a p t e r I s
I n c l u d e d on each o f t h e s e , t r a n s l a t i n g them i n t o e d u c a
t i o n a l s i t u a t i o n s .
From M a r k e tin g
The f i r s t t o be p u r s u e d I s t h e m a r k e tin g f o r m a t.
C h a rt 5 I s r e l a t i v e l y s im p le and s e l f - e x p l a n a t o r y ( s e e page
3 3 ). C h a rt 6 (p a g e 34) I s an a tt e m p t t o I l l u s t r a t e a more'
c o m p re h e n s iv e m orp h o lo g y u s i n g c u r r e n t t h e o r i e s o f m a r k e t
i n g . N o te t h a t t h e a c t i v i t i e s I n t h e a r e a o f t h e a s t e r i s k
on t h i s c h a r t I s e x p l a i n e d by C h a rt 7 . T h is s e v e n t h c h a r t
i n d i c a t e s t h a t t h e d e c i s i o n t o a t t e n d c o l l e g e I s b o t h p r i
mary and s e l e c t i v e . F i r s t o f a l l , t h e s t u d e n t m ust d e c id e
32
t h a t he w a n ts t o go t o c o l l e g e and th e n h e must a l s o d e c i d e
w hich c o l l e g e h e w ish e s t o a t t e n d . H aving d e c id e d w h ich
c o l l e g e h e w a n ts t o a t t e n d , h i s e x p e r i e n c e a t c o l l e g e w i l l
I n f l u e n c e him a s t o w h e th e r h e wlBhes t o c o n t i n u e I n c o l
l e g e . T h is p r o c e s s c e r t a i n l y h ap p en s t o many s t u d e n t s from
day t o d a y . Prom t h i s c h a r t I t would seem t h a t t h e d r o p o u t
pro b lem a t c o l l e g e I s c l o s e l y r e l a t e d t o t h e o r i g i n a l mo
t i v a t i o n s f o r a t t e n d i n g c o l l e g e .
The s e v e n th c h a r t r e q u i r e s a d e f i n i t i o n a l e x p l a n a
t i o n . I n t h i s p a r t i c u l a r t y p e of c h a r t , a s e a r c h s h a l l be
r a t i o n a l , i f I t i m p l i e s much s e a r c h , and e m o t i o n a l , I f I t
I m p li e s l i t t l e s e a r c h . On t h e b a s i s o f t h i s c h a r t t h e n ,
I t would a p p e a r t h a t a d ic h o to m y and f o u r - c e l l s e t u p c o u ld
be d e v e lo p e d as f o l lo w s :
A c t i v a t i o n
C o n sc io u s U n c o n sc io u s
R a t i o n a l
o r much
(1)
(2)
E m o tio n a l
o r l i t t l e
(3) W
C h a r t 4
A S u g g e s te d C l a s s i f i c a t i o n o f
S tu d e n t D e c i s i o n P r o c e s s e s
33
F o r t h i s p a r t i c u l a r f lo w c h a r t , t h e f o u r - c e l l d i s t r i b u t i o n
w i l l a lw a y s h a v e c e l l tw o empty b e c a u s e i t i s e x c l u d e d by
d e f i n i t i o n . I f some o t h e r b a s i s f o r c l a r i f y i n g r a t i o n a l
e m o t i o n a l w e re p o s s i b l e t h a n an i n t e n s i t y o f s e a r c h , c e l l
tw o would n o t be v a c a n t . I f , f o r i n s t a n c e , t h e t y p e o f a c
t i v a t i o n " u n c o n s c i o u s " c o u l d be c l a s s i f i e d on b o th e m o tio n
a l and r a t i o n a l b a s e s o t h e r t h a n s e a r c h a s p e rh a p s by a
p r o f e s s i o n a l p a n e l o f e x p e r t s o r d i s s o n a n c e , c e l l 2 w ou ld
n o t be v a c a n t . Even a t h r e e - c e l l d i s t r i b u t i o n w o uld be of
v a l u e t o a d m i n i s t r a t o r s o f c o l l e g e s and t o g u id a n c e c o u n
s e l o r s o r e v e n t o s t u d e n t s i f th e i n f o r m a t i o n was a v a i l a b l e
t o h e l p th em make a c h o i c e w h ich w ould o p t i m i z e s t u d e n t s '
c h a n c e s f o r p e r s i s t e n c e .
External Variables Internal Variables Behavior
Stimuli
Other
Rational
College Attend
ance at Y
Chart 5
The Simple Marketing Format of a Flow Chart
3^
*See next Chart
Motives
Reaction to
College
Reaction to
College Y
Entrance
to College Y
Attendance
a t College Y
Step (2) lev e l
Enter a t
Motives
(Step 2 level)
Primary
(Choice to go to
College)
Stimulus
-In te rn a l
and/or External
Selective
(Choice of College Y)
Chart 6
The Marketing Format of a Flow Chart
35
national Emotional
Unconscious
Emotional
Zero Conscious
Relevant
Stimulus
Type of Search Type of* Search
Type of Activation
State of Motivation
Selective Motives
Choice of Y College
Primary
Motives
(Desires more College)
Chart 7
A Plow Chart of Steps from Primary to Selective Motives
(See previous Chart*)
36
Prom Econom ics
C h a rt 8 t e c h n i c a l l y d e a l s o n ly w ith s t u d e n t s g o in g
t o c o l l e g e a s t h e y a r e o n ly a p a r t o f t h e demand I f t h e y
h a v e s u f f i c i e n t endowment (b) t o a t t e n d a t some f i x e d t i m e .
Given a, ^ c
at time t
Then
The Student *
Preferences
(Utility)
The Student ■will (must
and does) M a x i m i z e
Preferences
The Student1©
Endowment or
Financial Capability
(Budget)
The Student's
Environment of
Collegiate Opportunity
(Scarcity)
The Student's Desire to
Maximize the Attainment
of his Preferences
(Motivation)
Chart 8
A Flow Chart Based on the Theory of Supply and Demand
The s t u d e n t s ' p r e f e r e n c e s i n (a ) s h o u ld n o t be
t h o u g h t o f p r i m a r i l y a s p s y c h o l o g i c a l o r s o c i o l o g i c a l , b u t
r a t h e r a s Income d e te r m i n i n g o r - w e a l t h d e te r m i n e d . W ith o u t
l a b o r i n g t h i s p o i n t o f t h e l i m i t a t i o n s o f t h i s sim p le chartj,
}
c o n s i d e r a more s o p h i s t i c a t e d econom ic v iew i n C h a rt 9 of
t h e d e c i s i o n p r o c e s s .
37
The Environment The Student Student Behavior
Economic (Attributes) (Attendance)"
Opportunity ability
or etc*
Costs (Price)
College A
Tutor
Attend
College B
Hot Attend
Armed Service
Where
When
Hov Much
(d) Desire or motiva
tion to maximize
or satisfy pref
erences
(a) Preferences or
utility function
Chart 9
A More Sophisticated Economic View
T h is c h a r t d oes r e c o g n i z e t h e s u b s t i t u t i o n a s w e l l
aB t h e p r e f e r e n t i a l a s p e c t o f d e c i s i o n p r o c e s s e s and i s
more d e s c r i p t i v e o f t h e r e a l w o rld t o t h a t e x t e n t . I t c an
a l s o be e x p r e s s e d a s a s e r i e s o f m a th e m a tic a l r e l a t i o n s
( s e e 1 2 t 6 3 ) . N o te a l s o P a t i n k i n 1956 r e f e r e n c e c i t e d b y 1
N i c o s i a . T h ese e q u a t i o n s , h o w ev er, p r e s e n t a m acro view o f
demand f o r o r p r e f e r e n c e f o r any g iv e n s e c t i o n o f t h e e n
v iro n m e n t w hich n e g l e c t s i n d i v i d u a l d i f f e r e n c e s . N e i t h e r
t h e e q u a t i o n s n o r t h e c h a r t i n d i c a t e t h e e f f e c t o f f e e d b a c k
38
o f t h e e f f e c t o f c o n ti n u o u s d e c i s i o n m aking w i t h u s e .
T h e se e q u a t io n s i n "Consumer Econom ics" a r e b a s e d on p r i c e
and q u a n t i t y o f g o o d s and may r e q u i r e some p o s t u l a t i n g t o
t r a n s f o r m them t o an i n t a n g i b l e su c h a s e d u c a t i o n . F u r
t h e r , t h e d e t e r m i n a t i o n of p r i c e would be v e r y n e b u lo u s a s
i t w o u ld p r o b a b ly h a v e t o be b a s e d on o p p o r t u n i t y c o s t s .
I n c o nsu m er e c o n o m ic s, p r i c e i s u s u a l l y one o f t h e v a r i
a b l e s t h a t can be d e f i n i t e l y d e te r m in e d and c o n t r o l l e d .
S in c e p r i c e can n o t be d e te r m in e d h e r e and m ig h t n o t be a
c r i t i c a l c r i t e r i a I n most c a s e s , t h e s e e q u a t i o n s w i l l n o t
b e t r a n s f o r m e d b u t f u t u r e I n v e s t i g a t i o n s s h o u ld be aw are
o f t h e i r so u rc e a n d l i m i t a t i o n s .
I n b o th o f t h e flow c h a r t s (8 and 9)* t h e Ite m
l a b e l e d (d) e x i s t s and i s b a s i c t o t h e econom ic schem e. I t
i s a p o s t u l a t e t h a t man w i l l m axim ize h i s p r e f e r e n c e s by
h i s b e h a v i o r . T h i s r e a l l y assu m es p e r f e c t know ledge of
h i s e n v iro n m e n t an d t h e r e s u l t s o f h i s a c t i o n s w hich I s
d o u b t f u l I n any i n d i v i d u a l c a s e . T h e r e f o r e t h i s ty p e o f
schem e I s p r e d i c t i v e i n a n o r m a tiv e s e n s e . The p e r s o n
p r e d i c t i n g can s a y t h a t i f t h e s t u d e n t i s g i v e n t h e I n f o r
m a tio n h e would n o r m a l ly do c e r t a i n t h i n g s b e c a u s e t h a t
s h o u l d p ro d u ce t h e g r e a t e s t s a t i s f a c t i o n o f h i s p r e f e r
e n c e s . T h is sch em e, t h e n , m ig h t be v a l u a b l e i n a s tu d y o f
t h e n o rm a l e f f e c t s o f s c h o l a r s h i p s , e t c . on a t t e n d a n c e .
39
The Environment The Student
Specific Goal
(intention to act or
go to college A)
Goal Orientations
(the task, such as
get higher education)
The "Final" Act
(overt behavior, such as
attending college A)
A Stimulus
(the signal, such as
many people go to
college and learn)
A Stimulus
(occasion to act, invita
tion to attend college A
hut perhaps not college B)
Chart 10
\
A Wurzburg Decision Process Flow Chart
40
Environmental
Stimuli The Student
'Perception \
-p h y sic a l )->
>-eognltlve/
(Student's endowment)
Enabling
Conditions
Action Orientation
of student
-attitudes
-expectations
-motives
(as graduation
from high school)
Pre c ip itat ing
Circumstances
Chart 11
A Katona Decision Process Flow Chart
, final
1 Ictlon
i
-the
t attendance
' at College
■*Ehls factor is considered in interview schedules and data analysis
though not explicitly part of the scheme.
4l
From t h e B e h a v i o r a l S c ie n c e s
Two im p o r t a n t c o n t r i b u t i o n s a r e p o r t r a y e d by th e
W urzburg and t h e K a to n a c h a r t s . F i r s t , t h e I n t e r n a l
th o u g h t p a t t e r n s w ere p o s t u l a t e d a s p r o c e e d in g fro m g e n e r a l
t o s p e c i f i c a s s t i m u l i came i n . T h is , N i c o s i a ( 1 6 :1 2 0 -1 2 3 )
c a l l s " F u n n e lln g " and was i n o p p o s i t i o n t o t h e t h e n c u r r e n t
view o f t h e a s s o c l a t l o n i s t s c h o o l o f p s y c h o lo g y w h ic h b e
l i e v e d i n c h a n c e c o n j u n c t i o n o f e v e n t s . The se c o n d co n
t r i b u t i o n was t h e s e p a r a t i o n o f s t i m u l i w hich c r e a t e t h e
I n t e n t i o n t o a c t from t h e s t i m u l i w hich o c c a s i o n s t h e a c t .
T h is l a s t d i s t i n c t i o n w ould make c l e a r t h e im p o r ta n c e o f
n o t o n ly p r o v i d i n g c o l l e g e s t o a t t e n d , b u t b e in g s u r e t h a t
s t u d e n t s a r e g iv e n o c c a s i o n t o a t t e n d . F u r t h e r , t h a t
w h e th e r t h e y a c c e p t t h e o p p o r t u n i t y t o a t t e n d dependB n o t
o n ly upon c u r r e n t s t i m u l i , b u t a l s o on p a s t s t i m u l i . The
d e c i s i o n t o o r n o t t o a t t e n d , t h e n , may be i n f l u e n c e d more
by p a s t s t i m u l i th a n by c u r r e n t as t h e p a s t i s s e e n h e r e
to form t h e s t u d e n t ' s i n t e n t i o n t o a c t .
N e a r t h e t o p of t h e L a z a r s f e l d C h a rt 12 t h e l e t t e r s
E and I a p p e a r . They s t a n d f o r th e two m ain c l a s s e s of
v a r i a b l e s r e c o g n i z e d b y most i n v e s t i g a t o r s , i . e . , t h o s e
t h a t d e s c r i b e t h e I n d i v i d u a l ( I ) and t h o s e t h a t d e s c r i b e
th e e n v iro n m e n t ( E ) . T h e i r r e l a t i o n t o b e h a v i o r (B) i s
e x p r e s s e d b y t h e f o l l o w i n g e q u a t i o n :
B = f ( l , E )
42
T: Time E ( r ) : Environmental V ariables ' l ( r ) i V ariables in
, th e stu d en t's
s o c ia l psycho
lo g ic a l f i e l d
T
r
T + 1
E (l): e . g . , a fr ie n d 's
statem ent favorab le
to C ollege A, B
E ( 2 ) : e .g ., Review o f the
C ollege B catalog
l ( l ) : e . g . , opinions
about C olleges
A,B, and a Job
l ( 2 ) : e . g . , a favorable
a ttitu d e toward
C o lleg e 0 A and B
T + 2
T + 3
\
\
\
\
l ( 3 ) : e . g . , read in ess
to a tten d C ollege
A o r B
E (5)**e -S*> a sch ool c o m s e lo r 's
\
or adm issions o f f i c e r ' s
' v
recommendation to a tten d
\
C ollege A
\
\
\
\
l ( 4 ) : e . g . , th e student
a tten d s C ollege A \
\
Chart 12
A L azarsfeld - 1935 Format o f a D ecision
P rocess Flow Chart
43
In line with this, Lazarsfeld built the following paradigm
of actioni
Causally
Described Assessed
External Exposure Influence
Internal Disposition Motive
Chart 13j
Components of an Act
Nicosia (1 2:1 0 2- 1 0 4) feels that a dichotomy Is too
general a classification for components of actions and
uses the contents of Lazarsfeld four cellB to help produce
his Comprehensive Scheme. He postulates four classes of
variables in the decision process which Interact changing
each other. A stimulus may become exposure which may be
come influence, which may be internalized to become a dis
position, and that may become a motive. Thus, motive is
seen not as concrete or substantive but as a label of con
venience for a resultant of a process. A decision is seen
as a process requiring time and resulting from his "Funnel"
scheme (1 2:1 2 0- 1 2 3). All of these concepts flow into his
comprehensive scheme and each subfield of it is explained
at length (1 2:1 5 7- 1 9 1).
Nicosia's view of motivation is similar to one
expressed by White (2 0:2 9 7-3 3 1) iu Motivation Reconsidered:
4 4
The Concept; o f C o m p eten ce, i n w h ic h e f f e c t i v e r e a c t i o n w i t h
t h e e n v iro n m e n t I s t h e g o a l o f a c o n t i n u i n g p ro c e s B t h a t
m o t i v a t e s . The d e s i r e f o r c o m p e te n c e i s one o f th e r e a s o n s
s t u d e n t s make t h e d e c i s i o n t o a t t e n d c o l l e g e . A f t e r t h a t
d e c i s i o n , h o w e v e r, a c o m p re h e n s iv e schem e l i k e C h a rt 14
i n d i c a t e s f e e d b a c k t h a t w i l l e f f e c t t h e n e x t c y c l e th r o u g h
t h e d e c i s i o n p r o c e s s i f t h e p ro c e s B c o n t i n u e s . N i c o s i a
m e n tio n s d i s s o n a n c e an d i t B h o u ld be a f a c t o r I n t h e f e e d
b a c k o f f i e l d f o u r on C h a rt l4.
I n flo w C h a rtB l4 an d 1 5, two a r e a s a r e o f p rim e
I m p o r ta n c e t o c o n t i n u e d a t t e n d a n c e . In C h a r t 15 I t I s
p r o p e n s i t y t o s e a r c h w h ich m o d u la te s t h e r a t e o f s e a r c h
and I n C h a r t 14 I t i s S u b f i e l d Two w ith I t s r e s u l t i n g a t
t i t u d e . B oth o f t h e s e a r e a s a r e c o v e r t a n d c a n n o t be d i
r e c t l y m e a su re d i n a. g e n e r a l i z e d te r m . H o w ev er, s i n c e t h e
k n o w le d g e o f e a c h man I s l i m i t e d and h i s d e c i s i o n s a r e a l l
made I n tim e I t i s r e a s o n a b l e a n d p r o b a b le t h a t a c h o ic e
among m u l t i p l e a l t e r n a t i v e s r e s u l t s i n a s e r i e s o f d e c i
s i o n s w i t h a f i n a l c h o ic e among a l i m i t e d num ber o f a l t e r
n a t i v e s . R e g a r d l e s s o f t h e m y r ia d s o f f a c t o r s p e c u l i a r t o
e a c h i n d i v i d u a l a n d h i s a l t e r n a t i v e s a f t e r com m itm ent h e I s
f a c e d n o t w ith t h e o r i g i n a l s i t u a t i o n b u t a r e s u l t i n g s i t u
a t i o n w i t h one t h i n g I n common f o r a l l s t u d e n t s , I . e . , d i s
s o n a n c e . D i s s o n a n c e . w i l l a f f e c t h i s p e r c e p t i o n o f t h e new
s i t u a t i o n much l i k e a p r e d i s p o s i t i o n o r a t t i t u d e o f C h a r t
14 w h ic h i n t u r n a f f e c t s F i e l d Two o r s e a r c h . H is p e r c e p -
F ie ld One: From the Source o f a Message to the Student' 0 A ttitude
A ttitude
F ield Two:
Search fo r,
and Evalu
atio n of,
MeanB-End(s)
R elation(s)
(P re-actio n
Field)
F ield Four:
VThe Feed
\ Back
M otivation
F ie ld Three:
The Act of
Enrollment
Entrance
Decision
(action)
Search
E valuation
Attendance
( Campus
l i f e , e tc .)
Subfield Two
Student10
a ttr ib u te s
(esp ec ially
p red isp o sitio n s)
S ubfield One
College X's
A ttrib u te s
Me0sage-Exposure
Chart 1^
A Nicosia Type Comprehensive Scheme
Environmental F ie ld
Student Field'S
Chart 15
A Flow Chart t o D epict in te rc o lle g ia te T ran sfer or Dropout
(A March and Simon Type Scheme)
Other Marriage Work
Level of
A spiration
Level of
S a tis fa c tio n
Hate of
Search
Number and typos
a v a ila b le
Number and types
o f schools
Higher Educational
Structure
V is ib ility of
other schools
e tc .
Overt behavior of
tr a n s f e r or dropout
Desire to change to
another school or
o th er
Experience w ith
current and p a s t
schools
or other
Perceived expected
value of a change
I n other schools,
work or o th er
47
t l o n o f h i s s i t u a t i o n w i l l a f f e c t a l l in c o m in g I n f o r m a t i o n ,
e x p e r i e n c e , an d i t s i n t e r p r e t a t i o n . S i n c e d i s s o n a n c e i s a
n e g a t i v e a f f e c t , a h ig h d i s s o n a n c e w ould b e e x p e c te d t o
a d v e r s e l y a f f e c t c o l l e g e a t t e n d a n c e .
C h a rt 16 I l l u s t r a t e s t h e d e c i s i o n p r o c e s s d i s c u s s e d
g e o m e t r i c a l l y . T he s i x a l t e r n a t i v e s s h o u l d be r e l a t e d t o
t h e f i r s t s i x q u e s t i o n s o f t h e " S tu d e n t P e r s o n n e l S e r v i c e
Form " (A p p en d ix I V ) .
6 a 5 a B 2a l a
B i s t h e c o l l e g e c h o s e n
C h a r t 16
The D e c i s i o n F u n n e l
The c h o i c e o f c o l l e g e a t t e n d a n c e I s a tim e a n d
p l a c e r e l a t i o n i n t h a t on e p e r s o n c a n o n l y be i n o n e p l a c e
a t a n y g iv e n t i m e . A ll o t h e r p l a c e s o r a l t e r n a t i v e s a r e
n o t p o s s i b l e w i t h com m itm ent t o t h e p l a c e o f c h o i c e . T he
a l t e r n a t e p l a c e s i n C h a rt 16 a r e r e p r e s e n t e d a s p o i n t s
( l a . . . . 6 a) w h ic h w i t h t h e p a s s i n g o f tim e a p p e a r a s p a r a l
l e l l i n e s down t h e pag e ( t h e s e p o i n t s n e v e r c o i n c i d e ) .
48
From a S k i n n e r i a n View
I t I b i n t e r e s t i n g t o n o t e t h a t t h e a l t e r n a t i v e s o f
t h e " D e c i s i o n F u n n e l " a r e e s s e n t i a l l y t h e r e p e r t o r y o f p o s
s i b l e b e h a v i o r s t h a t a s t u d e n t may i n i t i a t e i n t h e im m e d i
a t e f u t u r e . Any r e w a r d t h a t may be a r e s u l t o f t h i s d e c i
s i o n i s a s y e t u n c e r t a i n a n d i s a f a c t o r i n t h i s d e c i s i o n
o n l y a s i t i s p e r c e i v e d b y t h e s t u d e n t . The p e r c e p t i o n o f
a r e w a r d i s b a s e d on e x p o s u r e a n d on t h e l e v e l o f s e a r c h .
S i n c e t h i s i s o c c u r r i n g i n a n e n v ir o n m e n t w h e re t h e c o n
t r o l l e r s o f e n v ir o n m e n t a r e t r y i n g t o k e e p t h e s t u d e n t e n
r o l l e d , a n y a c t i v i t y t h a t I s d i v e r s e I n d i c a t e s f a i l u r e t o
p r o p e r l y re w a r d t h e s t u d e n t o r c o n t r o l h i s e n v ir o n m e n t .
W h ile I t i s n o t p o s s i b l e t o I n s u r e t h a t t h e B tu d e n t i s
"H u n g ry " f o r a t t e n d a n c e b y w i t h h o l d i n g i t f o r a n y c e r t a i n
p e r i o d , h i s own o p i n i o n o f t h e a l t e r n a t e p o s s i b i l i t i e s
s h o u l d I n d i c a t e h i s p e r c e p t i o n o f t h e r e w a r d t h a t t h e y h o l d
f o r h im . How i m p o r t a n t t h e s t u d e n t f e e l s t h e d e c i s i o n t o
b e , i s a l s o a m e a s u r e o f t h e s i z e o f t h e r e w a r d a s h e p e r
c e i v e s I t , W ith o u t d o u b t t h e r e a r e r e w a r d s t h a t a r e n o t
a n t i c i p a t o r y w h ic h h a v e a f f e c t e d t h e e x p o s u r e t o o t h e r a l
t e r n a t i v e s a n d t h e s t u d e n t ' s p e r c e p t i o n o f t h e s e a l t e r n a
t i v e s . S in c e com m itm ent i s a s u p p o s i t i o n o f t h i s e x p e r i
m e n t, t h e s t u d e n t ' s p r e f e r e n c e r a t i n g s f o r a l t e r n a t i v e s
— ■ * *
( o r d i s s o n a n c e ) I s a m e a s u r e o f t h e r e w a r d w hlc'h t h e y h o l d
f o r h im t h r o u g h a n t i c i p a t i o n . I t i s a ssu m e d t h a t t h o s e
r e w a r d e d I n t h e p a s t w i l l b e c h o s e n I n t h e f u t u r e . T h i s
49
a n t i c i p a t i o n , i t s e l f , s h o u l d I n f l u e n c e t h e o p e n n e s s o f t h e
s t u d e n t t o re w a rd o r i t s e q u i v a l e n t p r o p e n s i t y t o s e a r c h .
I f t h e s t u d e n t i s op en t o re w a rd f o r d i v e r s e b e h a v i o r ,
t h e r e i s a h ig h p r o b a b i l i t y t h a t h e w i l l a c t u a l l y e n g a g e i n
a c c e p t i n g a new a l t e r n a t i v e d u r i n g r e p e a t e d c h o i c e s . I f
t h e s t u d e n t i s n o t o p e n t o su c h r e w a r d , he w i l l p r o b a b l y
n o t m ake s u c h a co m m itm en t. T hus w h i l e t h e m o d el o r c o n
s t r u c t i s one f o r t h e i n d i v i d u a l , t h e new d e c i s i o n i s one
w hich l e n d s i t s e l f t o s t a t i s t i c a l t r e a t m e n t f o r g r o u p s o f
s t u d e n t s . The t e r m i n o l o g y o f t h i s l a t t e r v ie w i s d i f f e r
e n t ; h o w e v e r , t h e i n g r e d i e n t s o f t h e p ro b le m a r e v e r y much
t h e sam e.
CHAPTER IV
METHODOLOGY
S u b j e c t s
T he 1 9 6 8 f r e s h m a n c l a s s o f t h r e e c o l l e g e s i n S o u th
e rn C a l i f o r n i a w ere c h o s e n a s t h e s o u r c e o f t h e s a m p le s o f
c o l l e g e f r e s h m a n t o b e s t u d i e d . T h e se c o l l e g e s w is h t o r e
m ain anonym ous b u t w e re tw o s m a ll p r i v a t e c o l l e g e s and a
p u b l i c J u n i o r c o l l e g e i n t h e Los A n g e le s b a s i n . I n c o n s i d
e r i n g t h e p o p u l a t i o n o f t h e s e c o l l e g e s , one w a 3 known t o
h a v e a h i g h p e r c e n t a g e o f a l i e n s t u d e n t s . To a v o id a b i a s ,
a l i e n s w e r e r e j e c t e d a s p a r t o f t h e sa m p le fro m t h i s c o l
l e g e , b u t n o t fro m t h e o t h e r s . T r a n s f e r s t u d e n t s w e re a l s o
r e j e c t e d fro m a l l t h e s a m p le s i f t h e s t u d e n t s i n d i c a t e d
t h e y h a d c o m p le te d t h e i r fre s h m a n y e a r . The v a s t m a j o r i t y
o f t h e r e m a in i n g new, f u l l tim e , d a y s t u d e n t s w e re I n c l u d e d
a t b o th o f t h e p r i v a t e c o l l e g e s . The p e r c e n t a g e o f t h e
f r e s h m a n c l a s s c o v e r e d a t t h e J u n i o r c o l l e g e I s n o t known,
b u t t h a t sa m p le i s , h o w e v e r, q u i t e l a r g e . The s i z e o f a l l
sa m p le s I s r e c o r d e d i n T a b le 1.
A l l o f t h e s a m p le s i z e s p r e s e n t e d i n T a b le 1 a r e
s u f f i c i e n t l y l a r g e t o b e c o n s i d e r e d s t a t i s t i c a l l y a s l a r g e
sa m p le s w i t h t h e e x c e p t i o n o f t h e p i l o t s t u d y a n d sa m p le s
by m a j o r . E ven t h e p i l o t s tu d y a n d o n e o f t h e sa m p le s by
50
TABLE 1
SA M PLE SIZES
Samples
1st Private
College
2nd Private
College
Public Junior
College
AH Samples
Pooled
Students who did not retu rn
a fte r one term
37
30 47
12k
Students who returned a fte r
one term
100 121
183
kok
T otal students in sample
137
151 230 518
Students who did not retu rn
a fte r one year
52 4 l
Students who returned a fte r
one year
49 80
The p ilo t study 27a
Samples hy major 21 and 29
£ 1
Six of these were a r t majors and th e ir scores were used to calculate n u ll hypothesis number
two fo r the p ilo t study*
v _ n
52
m a jo r c l o s e l y a p p r o a c h e s 3 0 w h ic h i s t h e g e n e r a l s t a t i s t i
c a l r u l e f o r l a r g e s a m p le s . S in c e t h e s e B am ples w e re e x
h a u s t i v e o f t h e s t u d e n t s a v a i l a b l e , i t i s h o p e d t h a t t h e y
a r e f r e e fro m b i a s w h ic h c a n r e s u l t fro m n o t o b t a i n i n g a
ra n d o m s a m p le . By c o m b in in g t h e p u b l i c a n d p r i v a t e s e c t o r s
i n t o o n e l a r g e s a m p le , i t i s h o p e d t h a t t h i s sa m p le may
r e p r e s e n t t h e l a r g e r u n i v e r s e o f t h e s t u d e n t p o p u l a t i o n i n
a l l t y p e s o f c o l l e g e s . O b v i o u s l y , many t y p e s o f c o l l e g e s
w e re n o t r e p r e s e n t e d a n d so t h i s t y p e o f e x t e n s i o n i s
l i m i t e d .
A p p a r a tu s
A q u e s t i o n n a i r e waB d e s i g n e d t o m e a s u r e t h e d i s s o
n a n c e p r o d u c e d i n a f r e e s i t u a t i o n and w as g i v e n t h e i n n o c
u o u s t i t l e o f " S t u d e n t P e r s o n n e l S e r v i c e P'orm" ( s e e E x h i b i t
1 ) . T he i n s t r u c t i o n s se em e d a d e q u a t e f o r c o l l e g e f r e s h m e n
b u t a s e p a r a t e s e t o f i n s t r u c t i o n s w as p r e p a r e d f o r a d m in
i s t r a t o r s o f t h e q u e s t i o n n a i r e . T he f i r s t s e v e n q u e s t i o n s
w e re t h e o n l y o n e s b a s e d on t h e t h e o r y o f c o g n i t i v e d i s s o
n a n c e a n d u s e d i n t h e c a l c u l a t i o n o f t h e d i s s o n a n c e s c o r e .
Q u e s t i o n s e i g h t t h r o u g h t w e l v e w e re d e s i g n e d t o h e l p d e
l i m i t t h e s a m p le a n d t o s e e i f t h e s t u d e n t s w e re t a k i n g
t h e q u e s t i o n n a i r e s e r i o u s l y en o u g h t o a n s w e r t h e sam e q u e s
t i o n i n d i f f e r e n t fo rm c o n s i s t e n t l y . E a c h o f t h e q u e s t i o n s
w as n u m b e re d t o f a c i l i t a t e p l a c i n g a n s w e r s on t h e a n s w e r
c a r d . T he c h o i c e s p r e s e n t e d i n q u e s t i o n s o n e t h r o u g h s i x
53
a l l r e p r e s e n t a l t e r n a t e d e c i s i o n s t h a t t h e y m ig h t h a v e made.
T he s t u d e n t c o m p a re d t h e s e c h o i c e s w ith t h e c h o ic e t o w h ic h
h e h a s c o m m itte d h im B e lf by a t t e n d i n g t h e I n s t i t u t i o n w h e re
h e w as b e in g t e s t e d . The m o re e q u i v a l e n t h e p e r c e i v e s h i s
c h o i c e s t o b e t h e h i g h e r w i l l b e h i s s c o r e . The s e v e n t h
q u e s t i o n a l s o c o n t r i b u t e d t o a h i g h e r s c o r e a c c o r d in g t o
t h e p e r c e i v e d im p o r ta n c e o f t h e c h o ic e o f c o l l e g e .
W hile t h e num ber o f f a c t o r s t h a t i n f l u e n c e a f r e s h
man t o e n r o l l i n a s p e c i f i c c o l l e g e may b e v e r y g r e a t , t h e
n u m b er o f a l t e r n a t i v e s t h a t a r e o r w ere a v a i l a b l e a r e q u i t e
l i m i t e d and a r e g e n e r a l l y c o v e r e d by t h i s q u e s t i o n n a i r e .
T h e s e a re a l s o t h e same f o r m o s t c o l l e g e s o r u n i v e r s i t i e s
a n d t h e r e f o r e t h e q u e s t i o n n a i r e may be c o n s i d e r e d o f u n i
v e r s a l c h a r a c t e r .
The a n s w e r c a r d was a m im eographed IBM c a r d w h ic h
i 1
i s E x h ib it 2 . I n o r d e r t o I n s u r e a c c u r a c y o f i n f o r m a t i o n
a n d f a c i l i t a t e t a b u l a t i o n , w h e r e p r a c t i c a l t h e s t u d e n t w as
g i v e n a p r e - p u n c h e d c a r d w i t h h i s name, m a j o r , s t a t u s , a n d
s e x p u nched i n t o i t . A ll q u e s t i o n s and i n s t r u c t i o n s a p p e a r
o n a s e p a r a t e u n a t t a c h e d s h e e t ( s e e E x h i b i t l ) , t h e n u m b e rs
a n d b la n k s o f w h ic h m atch t h e IBM an sw er c a r d ( s e e E x h i b i t
2).
O b j e c t i v i t y o f t h e A p p a ra tu s __
The " S t u d e n t P e r s o n n e l S e r v ic e F o rm " i s a r a t h e r
o b j e c t i v e t e s t s i n c e anyone a d m i n i s t e r i n g i t n e e d s o n l y t o
Student Personnel Service Form
W e congratulate you on making the d ecision to attend college* D ecision making
i s Important throughout l i f e and th is i s a study of the decision to attend c o lle g e .
Please try to r e c a ll your most important altern ate choices and answer the follow
ing questions on the pink IB M card*
Answer the f i r s t s i s questions only i f you considered that a ltern a te. P rint the
appropriate number from the follow ing table on the IBM card only a fter the choices
you considered*
Example: I f you considered attending the U niversity of G uam to hove almost the
same value to you as attending th is college* p rint the number under "almost as
desirable" on the IBM card. (Tour answer should be 4 in th is case*)
A lternate Choice
Equal
or more
desirable
Almost as
desirable
1 i
s
Adequate !
P ossib le but
not desirable
1
*
Last |
Resort
1* College or
U niversity #1
5 4 3 2 1
2* College or
U niversity #2
5 4 3
i
2 i 1
3* College or
U niversity #3
5 4 I 3 2 i !
4 . Occupation
or Career
5 4 | 3 2 l
5 . M ilitary
Service
S 4 3 2 l
Example: I f you considered attending the U niversity o f G uam to have almost the
same value to you as attending th is c o lle g e , print the number under "almost as
desirable" on the IBM card, (Your answer should be 4 in th is case,)
A lternate Choice
Equal
or more
desirable
Almost as
desirable
J
j
.Adequate j
P ossib le but
not desirable
f
Last I
Resort 1
1, College or
U niversity #1
5 4
1
i
3 2 i !
j
2 , College or
U niversity #2
'
5
i
4 , 3 2
* ■ !
3, College or
U niversity #3
5 4 3 2 i !
i
4, Occupation
or Career
5 4 3 2
I
i
5 , M ilitary
Service
S 4 3 2 i
6 , Other
(Specify)
5
4 1 3
2
■
i
7 , Of th a t importance do you consider the choice o f college:
(1) unimportant
(2) routine importance
(3) important
(4) very in^ortant
(5) extremely important
8 • W hen did you graduate from high school?
9, H ot? many c o lleg e s did you consider attending?
10, H ow many co lleg es did you send entrance application requests?
11, Have you attended co lleg e before?
12, Gave you completed your freshman year of college?
HSi'I AH3T-5S C 6K D 1 3 FOE
ST D D E H T P2RS0HH2L S2U7ICS FG 2II
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EXHIBIT 2
g i v e r e l a t i v e l y s im p le I n s t r u c t i o n s and a d d th o n u m b ers r e
c o rd e d by t h e s t u d e n t t o o b t a i n a d i s s o n a n c e s c o r e . D i s s o
n a n c e i t s e l f may be s u b j e c t i v e b u t t h e i n s t r u m e n t w h ich
m e a s u re s i t s h o u ld n o t be s u b j e c t i v e . No a t t e m p t t o e x
p l a i n t h e u s e o f t h e t e s t r e s u l t s was made t o a v o id any
b i a s t h a t s t u d e n t s m ig h t i n t r o d u c e by t r y i n g t o a f f e c t t h e
r e s u l t s i n some s y s t e m a t i c m an n e r.
The f i r s t p a r a g r a p h o f t h e I n s t r u c t i o n s o p e n s by
t r y i n g t o e s t a b l i s h a f r i e n d l y r e l a t i o n s h i p w ith t h e B tu -
d e n t a n d i n t r o d u c e t h e s u b j e c t t o be c o n s i d e r e d . "We c o n
g r a t u l a t e y o u . . . " s h o u ld a p p e a l t o m ost s t u d e n t s and
. . o n m ak in g t h e d e c i s i o n t o a t t e n d c o l l e g e " i s t h e
s u b j e c t b e in g i n v e s t i g a t e d . The s e c o n d s e n t e n c e r e l a t e s
t h e s u b j e c t J u s t I n t r o d u c e d t o t h e s t u d e n t a s I m p o r ta n t t o
h i s f u t u r e an d a s r e l e v a n t t o h i s im m e d ia te a c t i v i t y a s a
s i g n o f c o l l e g e I n t e r e s t , The t h i r d s e n t e n c e seekB t h e
c o o p e r a t i o n o f t h e s t u d e n t , c l a r i f i e s t h e fra m e o f r e f e r
e n c e i n w h ic h t h e r e m a in d e r o f "fo rm " i s t o be c o n s i d e r e d ,
a n d i n t r o d u c e s t h e c o l o r m a tc h e d IBM c a r d . T h e s e t h r e e
s e n t e n c e s e n d e a v o r t o a l l a y s t u d e n t f e a r s o r s u s p i c i o n s and
m in im iz e t h e r o l e o f t h e a d m i n i s t r a t o r t o I n c r e a s e t h e o b
j e c t i v i t y o f t h e i n s t r u m e n t .
The s e c o n d p a r a g r a p h g i v e s e x p l i c i t i n s t r u c t i o n s
f o r a n s w e r in g t h e q u e s t i o n s a s k e d , a n d t h e t h i r d p a r a g r a p h
p r o v i d e s a n I l l u s t r a t e d e x a m p le w i t h an a n s w e r t o I n s u r e
s t u d e n t u n d e r s t a n d i n g o f t h e p r o c e d u r e . T he p r o c e d u r e
i n v o l v e s a " c h e c k l i s t " a p p ro a c h w h ic h i s p r e f e r a b l e bo
u s i n g i n t e r v i e w t e c h n i q u e s t o o b t a i n i n f o r m a t i o n from s u b
j e c t s u n d e r i n v e s t i g a t i o n a s o b j e c t i v i t y i s m ore e a s i l y a s
s u r e d . The o h e c k l i s t i s a l s o open e n d ed t o a l i m i t e d e x
t e n t so t h a t t h e s t u d e n t c a n e x p r e s s h i m s e l f . T h is r e
s u l t e d i n a vex’y few e n t r i e s w h ic h a t t e s t s t o t h e c o m p le te
n e s s o f t h e o h e c k l i s t .
V a l i d i t y o f t h e A p p a ra tu s
S in c e c o g n i t i v e d i s s o n a n c e i s a b s t r a c t i n n a t u r e ,
i t 1 b I m p o r ta n t t o c o n s i d e r t h e v a l i d i t y o f i t s m e a s u re
m e n t, The g e n e r a l c o n c e p t o f v a l i d i t y may be s u b d i v i d e d
i n t o f o u r t y p e s o f v a l i d i t y and t h e a p p a r a t u s may be c o n
s i d e r e d a s t o i t s c o n t e n t v a l i d i t y , p r e d i c t i v e v a l i d i t y ,
c o n c u r r e n t v a l i d i t y , and c o n s t r u c t v a l i d i t y .
C o n s t r u c t v a l i d i t y d e p e n d s upon t h e a g re e m e n t o f
t h e d e s i g n o f t h e a p p a r a t u s w i t h t h e t h e o r y upon w h ic h i t
i s b a s e d . The " S tu d e n t P e r s o n n e l S e r v i c e Form " i s b a s e d
u p o n t h e t h e o r y o f C o g n i ti v e D is s o n a n c e w h ic h i s re v ie w e d
i n C h a p te r I I ( s e e p a g e s 20 t o 2 3), an d a p o i n t by p o i n t
e x p l a n a t i o n o f a g re e m e n t w i t h t h i s t h e o r y seem s t o be i n
o r d e r .
F i r B t , t h e s i t u a t i o n s u r r o u n d i n g t h e d e c i s i o n t o
a t t e n d c o l l e g e was one o f " f r e e c h o i c e . " W h ile I t was
t r u e t h a t t h e r e w e re some f o r c e s t h a t c a u s e d s t u d e n t s t o
c h o o se t o a t t e n d c o l l e g e , m ost s t u d e n t s w e re f r e e t o c h o o se
58
b e tw e e n a t t r a c t i v e a l t e r n a t i v e s r a t h e r t h a n r e p u l s i v e o n e s
t h a t w o u ld r e q u i r e c o m p u ls io n . T h e - o p p o r t u n i t y t o a t t e n d
r e p u t a b l e c o l l e g e s o r p u b l i c j u n i o r c o l l e g e s m ust h a v e b e e n
a v a i l a b l e t o t h e B tu d e n ts a t b o th o f t h e p r i v a t e c o l l e g e s .
S eco n d , u n d e r " f r e e c h o ic e " s i t u a t i o n s , f o u r d e r i
v a t i o n s ( s e e p a g e 22 f o r an e x a c t q u o te ) fro m t h e t h e o r y o f
C o g n i t i v e D is s o n a n c e a r e I m p o r ta n t t o t h e d eB ig n o f a n I n
s t r u m e n t t o t e s t f o r d i s s o n a n c e . The f i r s t o f t h e s e d e r i
v a t i o n s I s a lm o s t a r e s t a t e m e n t o f t h e p r e v i o u s p a r a g r a p h
a n d I s an a s s u m p tio n o f t h e a p p a r a t u s d e s i g n . The c h o i c e
i s b e tw e e n a t t r a c t i v e o r d e s i r a b l e a l t e r n a t i v e s . T h is I s
t h e b a s i s o f q u e s t i o n s one t h r o u g h s i x w h e re t h e s t u d e n t
i s a s k e d t o r a t e a l t e r n a t e c h o i c e s on a d e s i r a b i l i t y s c a l e .
The s e c o n d d e r i v a t i o n I s m ore q u a n t i t a t i v e and r e l a t e s t h e
l e v e l o f d i s s o n a n c e a r o u s e d t o t h e a t t r a c t i v e n e s s o f t h e
r e j e c t e d a l t e r n a t i v e i n a p r o p o r t i o n a l m a n n e r. The d e s i g n
o f t h e a p p a r a t u s r e f l e c t s t h i s p r i n c i p l e b y t h e d e s i r a b i l
i t y s c a l e fro m on e t o f i v e u s e d t o com pare a l t e r n a t e
c h o i c e s w ith t h e a c t u a l c h o i c e . The t h i r d d e v i a t i o n r e
l a t e s t h e l e v e l o f d i s s o n a n c e a r o u s e d t o t h e q u a l i t a t i v e
d i s s i m i l a r i t y o f t h e c h o ic e a l t e r n a t i v e s a n d t h e a p p a r a t u s
r e f l e c t s t h i s by I n c l u d i n g q u e s t i o n s f o u r th r o u g h s i x .
Q u e s t i o n s f o u r th r o u g h s i x r e f l e c t p o s s i b l e a l t e r n a t i v e s
w h ic h a r e q u a l i t a t i v e l y d i s s i m i l a r t o a t t e n d i n g an y c o l
l e g e , The f o u r t h and l a s t d e r i v a t i o n r e l a t e s d i s s o n a n c e
a r o u s a l t o t h e I m p o r ta n c e o f t h e c h o i c e . T h is l a s t p r l n -
59
c l p l e o f d e s i g n I s r e f l e c t e d I n q u e s t i o n s e v e n w hich a s k s
t h e I m p o r ta n c e o f t h e c h o ic e o f c o l l e g e . The a n sw e r i s
num bered t o be a f i v e p o i n t s c a l e i n t h e c o r r e c t d i r e c t i o n
t o make t h e a n s w e rs t o a l l q u e s t i o n s c u m u l a t i v e .
The a p p a r a t u s I s b a s e d on a p u b l i s h e d t h e o r y t o
w h ic h I t c l o s e l y c o n fo rm s . T h e r e f o r e I t c a n b e s a i d t o
h a v e c o n s t r u c t v a l i d i t y . I t w o u ld b e d e s i r a b l e t o c o r r e
l a t e w i t h o t h e r t e s t s b u t l a c k i n g a s t a n d a r d b a s e d on s i m i
l a r c o n s t r u c t s t h i s w as n o t p r a c t i c a l .
C o n c u r r e n t v a l i d i t y a n d c o n t e n t v a l i d i t y a r e n o t
a p p r o p r i a t e du e t o t h e n a t u r e o f t h i s a p p a r a t u s an d t h e
e x p e r i m e n t a l d e s i g n , b u t p r e d i c t i v e v a l i d i t y I s t h e s u b j e c t
o f t h e e x p e r i m e n t a l p o r t i o n o f t h i s s t u d y w h ic h a t t e m p t s
t o show a n e m p i r i c a l r e l a t i o n b e tw e e n d i s s o n a n c e and d r o p
o u t s .
S cope o f t h e S tu d y
I n a d d i t i o n t o b e in g l i m i t e d t o t h e s u b j e c t s d e
s c r i b e d p r e v i o u s l y , t h e s t u d y f o l lo w e d t h e s t u d e n t s o f t h e
p r i v a t e c o l l e g e o n l y u n t i l t h e b e g in n i n g o f t h e i r se c o n d
a c a d e m ic y e a r . T he J u n i o r c o l l e g e s t u d e n t s w e re f o llo w e d
o n ly one s e m e s t e r o r u n t i l e n r o l l m e n t I n t h e s e c o n d se m e s
t e r w as d e te r m i n e d .
P r o c e d u r e s
A p i l o t s t u d y was c o n d u c te d on c u r r e n t l y e n r o l l e d
f r e s h m e n B tu d e n ts t o s e e i f t h e y u n d e r s t o o d t h e q u e s t i o n -
60
n a i r e and t o d e te r m i n e t h a t t h e i r s c o r e s d i f f e r e d en o u g h t o
i n d i c a t e t h a t t h e t e s t s c o r e s i n d i c a t i n g t h e s t u d e n t s p e r
c e i v e d s a t i s f a c t i o n w i t h t h e i r a t t e n d a n c e d e c i s i o n w e re
d i s t r i b u t e d ra n d o m ly . I n t h i s p i l o t s t u d y i t w as r e c o g n iz e e
t h a t d i s s o n a n c e s h o u ld a l r e a d y be lo w e r i n some c a s e s t h a n
i t was I m m e d ia te ly a f t e r e n t r a n c e , b u t t h i s s h o u ld n o t
s e r i o u s l y a f f e c t t h e above m e n tio n e d r e s u l t s .
D u r in g F a l l r e g i s t r a t i o n a l l s t u d e n t s t h o u g h t t o
b e a p o s s i b l e p a r t o f t h e sa m p le w ere g i v e n t h e q u e s t i o n
n a i r e a n d a n s w e r c a r d a lo n g w i t h o t h e r fo rm s r e q u i r e d f o r
r e g i s t r a t i o n . At one c o l l e g e l i t t l e h e l p was a v a i l a b l e i n
c o m p le tin g t h e a n s w e r c a r d u n l e s s s o u g h t and t h e fo rm s w e re
r e t u r n e d w i t h o t h e r r e g i s t r a t i o n p a p e r s I n a r o u t i n e m an n er
by m ost s t u d e n t s . At t h e o t h e r c o l l e g e , a p l a c e was p r o
v i d e d i n t h e r e g i s t r a t i o n l i n e f o r c o l l e c t i o n a n d a d v ic e on
c o m p l e t i o n . At t h e j u n i o r c o l l e g e i t w as n o t p o s s i b l e t o
a r r a n g e a n y o f t h e a b o v e b u t t h e s u r v e y was a d m i n i s t e r e d b y
a num ber o f t e a c h e r s i n t h e i r c l a s s e s d u r i n g t h e f i r s t w eek
o f t h e t e r m . T h e se f a c u l t y m em bers w e re g i v e n a s e p a r a t e
s e t o f i n s t r u c t i o n s t o a s s i s t th em i n c l a r i f y i n g an y q u e s
t i o n s w h ic h m ig h t a r i s e .
The c a r d s w e re s o r t e d a l p h a b e t i c a l l y (b y m a c h in e
w h e re p o s s i b l e ) , l i s t e d , n u m b ere d , an d s c o r e s su m m a riz e d .
A f t e r one te r m a l l o f t h e nam es w e re c h e c k e d f o r c o n t i n u e d
a t t e n d a n c e . Due t o c e r t a i n a d m i n i s t r a t i v e r e g u l a t i o n s , t h e
j u n i o r c o l l e g e r e q u i r e d t h a t t h e nam es b e c u t o f f o f t h e
61
c a r d s a t t h i s p o i n t an d t h u s t h a t p h a s e o f t h e e x p e rim e n t
c o u ld n o t b e c o n t i n u e d p a s t one s e m e s te r a n d t h e b e g in n i n g
o f t h e n e x t . F o r t h e p r i v a t e c o l l e g e s i t w as c o n ti n u e d u n
t i l t h e s t u d e n t s h a d c o m p le te d an a c a d e m ic y e a r and s t a r t e d
t h e n e x t te r m . R e e n r o llm e n t was v e r i f i e d th r o u g h a name b y
name c h e c k o f t h e i n s t i t u t i o n ' s m a s te r a t t e n d a n c e c o n t r o l
r e c o r d s and f i r s t te r m d r o p o u t s w e re n o t i n c l u d e d i n t h e
l a t t e r s t u d y .
To c h e c k n u l l h y p o t h e s i s num ber two., i t was n e c e s
s a r y t o s o r t o u t some m a jo r s fro m one o f t h e s a m p le s . Two
o f t h e m a jo rs a t on e o f t h e p r i v a t e c o l l e g e s y i e l d e d sam
p l e s o f 21 an d 29 s t u d e n t s . At l e a s t on e o f t h e s e m a jo r s
h a s a p u b l i c a n d p r o f e s s i o n a l r e p u t a t i o n o f b e in g v e r y
s t r o n g so i t seem ed a p p r o p r i a t e f o r t h i s t e s t .
S ta te m e n t o f N u ll H y p o th e s e s
The f i v e f o l l o w i n g n u l l h y p o t h e s e s w e re t e s t e d :
1. The d i s t r i b u t i o n o f s t u d e n t s ' d i s s o n a n c e s c o r e s
i s n o t d i f f e r e n t fro m a n o rm a l fo rm .
2. T he m ean d i s s o n a n c e s c o r e o f s t u d e n t s i n a ma
j o r i s n o t d i f f e r e n t fro m t h e mean f o r t h e i r c o l l e g e .
3 . S t u d e n t s w hose d i s s o n a n c e s c o r e i s a b o v e a v e r
a g e c o n t i n u e t o a t t e n d c o l l e g e a s f r e q u e n t l y a s s t u d e n t s
w h o se d i s s o n a n c e s c o r e i s b e lo w a v e r a g e .
4 . S t u d e n t s w hose d i s s o n a n c e s c o r e i s e q u a l t o o r
m o re t h a n o n e s t a n d a r d d e v i a t i o n ab o v e t h e c o l l e g e m ean
62
c o n t i n u e t o a t t e n d c o l l e g e a s f r e q u e n t l y a s o t h e r s t u d e n t s .
5 . T h e re i s no d i f f e r e n c e b e tw e e n t h e m ean d i s s o
n a n c e s c o r e o f s t u d e n t s who d ro p o u t and t h o s e who do n o t
d ro p o u t o f c o l l e g e .
S t a t i s t i c a l P r o c e d u r e s U sed
The .0 5 level of significance was adopted as ade
quate where such is an element of the decision to accept
or reject the hypothesis.
C hi s q u a r e was u s e d f o r 2 by 2 t a b l e s a n d f o r g o o d
n e s s o f f i t t e s t s a s a p p r o p r i a t e f o r n u l l h y p o t h e s e s num
b e r e d o n e , t h r e e an d f o u r .
The d i f f e r e n c e b e tw e e n m eans t e s t was s u f f i c i e n t t o
J u s t i f y t h e c o n c l u s i o n t h a t t h e t t e s t c o u ld be u s e d f o r
n u l l h y p o t h e s e s n um bered f o u r a n d f i v e . N a t u r a l l y , t h e
t t e s t r e q u i r e d t h e c a l c u l a t i o n o f m eans and s t a n d a r d d e v i
a t i o n s f o r t h e v a r i o u s s a m p le s .
To i n d i c a t e t h e e x t e n t o f t h e e m p i r i c a l r e l a t i o n
show n i n t h e t t e s t o f n u l l h y p o t h e s i s num ber f i v e , t h e
p o i n t b i s e r i a l c o r r e l a t i o n w as c a l c u l a t e d . The s t a n d a r d
e r r o r f o r t h e c o r r e l a t i o n w as c a l c u l a t e d , an d t h e t t e s t
f o r t h e p o i n t b i s e r i a l c o r r e l a t i o n w as u s e d t o show t h e
s i g n i f i c a n c e o f i t s d i f f e r e n c e fro m z e r o . The p o i n t b i
s e r i a l c o r r e l a t i o n w as u s e d s i n c e a t t e n d a n c e o r d r o p o u t i s
a p o s i t i o n a l d ic h o to m y a n d i s n o t c o n t i n u o u s .
T
CHAPTER V
FINDINGS
I n t r o d u c t io n
T h re e tim e p e r i o d s a r e i n v o l v e d I n t h e f i n d i n g s o f
t h i s s t u d y . The f i r s t o c c u r r e d d u r i n g t h e summer b e f o r e
t h e s t u d y when t h e p i l o t s t u d y w as c o n d u c te d . T he se c o n d
tim e p e r i o d c o v e r e d t h e f a l l te r m i n w h ic h a l l t h e d i s s o
n a n c e t e s t s w e re a d m i n i s t e r e d . T h i s se c o n d tim e p e r i o d w as
n o t o f e q u a l l e n g t h f o r t h e t h r e e c o l l e g e s aB o n e c o l l e g e
o p e r a t i o n i s on t h e q u a r t e r s y s te m , b u t s i n c e t h e d is s o n a n c e
t e s t s w ere a d m i n i s t e r e d a t t h e b e g in n in g o f t h e te r m t h e
d i f f e r e n c e i n l e n g t h w ould n o t a f f e c t t h e s c o r e s o b t a i n e d .
To h e l p a s c e r t a i n t h e e f f e c t o f p r o lo n g e d tim e on t h e r e
l a t i o n s h i p b e tw e e n d is s o n a n c e s c o r e s and d r o p o u ts a t h i r d
i n t e r v a l o f on e a ca d em ic y e a r w as i n v o lv e d In t h e s tu d y .
The f i n d i n g s o f t h e s t u d y a r e t h e r e f o r e p r e s e n t e d i n a
c h r o n o l o g i c a l m anner a s F i n d i n g s o f t h e P i l o t S tu d y i n
T a b le 2, a s F i n d i n g s a f t e r One Term I n T a b le 3 , an d a s
F i n d i n g s a f t e r One Y e a r I n T a b le 4 . From t h e f i n d i n g s p r e
s e n t e d ab o v e t h e n u l l h y p o t h e s e s o f t h e s t u d y w e re t e s t e d
a n d t h e r e s u l t s a p p e a r i n t h e Summary o f R e s u l t s w h ic h i n
c l u d e s T a b le 5 an d c o n c l u d e s t h i s c h a p t e r .
63
64
TABLE 2
FINDINGS OF THE PILOT STUDY
Frequency Distribution of Scores
Class Interval Frequency
4-15 2
14-15 1
16-17 2
18-19 5
20-21 7
22-25 6
24-25 1
26-27 1
28-55 2
N = 27 Test of Null Hypothesis #1
X = 2 0.I f X2 = 9-125
S2 = 6 .1 df = I f
S = 2.*f7 Test of Null Hypothesis #2
t = 2.12
0
K " \
1 1
£
Table of Findings
65
T he f i n d i n g s o f t h e p i l o t s t u d y p r e s e n t e d i n T a b le
2 s u p p o r t e d n u l l h y p o t h e s i s num ber one w h ic h s t a t e d t h a t
"The d i s t r i b u t i o n o f s t u d e n t s ' d i s s o n a n c e s c o r e s i s n o t
d i f f e r e n t fro m a n o rm a l f o r m . " The d i s s o n a n c e b c o r e s o f
s t u d e n t s a p p e a re d t o be d i s t r i b u t e d n o r m a l ly , t h e mean o f
t h e s c o r e s was r a t h e r h i g h ( 2 0 .4 ) and t h e s t a n d a r d d e v i a
t i o n ( 2 , 4 7 ) was r a t h e r lo w . The r e s u l t s o f t h e p i l o t w e re
e x tre m e w hen co m p ared w i t h t h e r e s u l t s f o r a l l o t h e r
s c h o o l s s t u d i e d . The t e s t o f n u l l h y p o t h e s i s num ber tw o
w h ich s t a t e s t h a t "The mean d i s s o n a n c e s c o r e o f s t u d e n t s
i n a m a jo r i s n o t d i f f e r e n t fro m t h e mean f o r t h e i r c o l
l e g e " w as r e j e c t e d , b u t t h e sa m p le s i z e f o r t h e m a jo r w as
e x tr e m e l y s m a l l , t h e r e f o r e t h e v a l i d i t y o f t h e r e s u l t w as
q u i t e d o u b t f u l . T h e s e r e s u l t s , h o w e v e r, w e re i n d i c a t i v e
t h a t a f u l l s t u d y was a t l e a s t w a r r a n t e d and t h e r e f o r e t h e
m ain b o d y o f t h e s t u d y w as c o n d u c te d .
The f r e q u e n c y d i s t r i b u t i o n s c o r e s p r e s e n t e d i n
T a b le 3 w o u ld a p p e a r t o b e skew ed s l i g h t l y . A t l e a s t t h e
s t u d e n t s who r e t u r n e d t o t h e p u b l i c J u n i o r c o l l e g e a n d t h e
f i r s t p r i v a t e c o l l e g e seem t o h a v e a mode n e a r t h e low e n d
o f t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n . I n a n y c a s e n u l l h y p o t h e s i s num ber
o n e , "The d i s t r i b u t i o n o f s t u d e n t s ’ d i s s o n a n c e s c o r e s i s
n o t d i f f e r e n t fro m a n o rm a l f o r m , " was r e j e c t e d a t a l l
t h r e e i n s t i t u t i o n s a n d f o r a l l sa m p le s p o o l e d . T h u s, t h e
J*
TABLE 3
FINDINGS AFTER ONE TERM
66
Claes Interval
Frequency D istribution of Scores
Public J .C. 1st Private College 2nd Private College
Returned D N Ra Returned D N R Returned DNR
1-2 1 0 0 0 1 0
3~b 23 5
16 6 If 2
5-6 28 8
17
9 16 6
7-8 30
7
2 1 10 2
9-10 22
7
If
3 13 3
11-12 22
3 3
3 10 0
l>-llf 9 5
11 b 13 2
15-16 12 2 12 1 12 If
17-18
7
6
5
1 lb 2
19-20 12
3 13
1 10 1
21-22
7
0 6 3 14
5
23-21*- if 0
3 3 3
1
25-26 if 1 2 1 0
27-28 2 6 0 1
29-30
' 1 0
31-32
-
1
N 183
lf7
100 37 121
3°
S ta tis tic s
—
A ll Samples
Pooled Public J.C. 1st P. Coll. 2nd P. Coll,
X 12.0 10.8 12.6 13-2
s2 39.6
35-7
6 0 .1 25.6
s
6.3 5.98 7.76
5.06
^NR means the scores of students th a t did not return.
67
d i s t r i b u t i o n o f sco reB waB In d e e d n o t norm al and may be b l -
m od al. N u ll h y p o t h e s e s two t h r o u g h f i v e w ere a l l a c c e p t e d ,
t h e r e b e in g no a p p a r e n t d e g r e e s o f d i f f e r e n c e betw een t h e
mean d is s o n a n c e s c o r e o f s t u d e n t s who d ro p and t h o s e who do
n o t drop o u t a f t e r one te rm .
The f i n d i n g s p r e s e n t e d I n T a b le 4 show c o n s i d e r a b l e
d i f f e r e n c e b e tw een t h e mean o f t h e s t u d e n t s who r e t u r n e d
and t h o s e who d i d n o t r e t u r n f o r t h e f i r s t p r i v a t e c o l l e g e
and v i r t u a l l y no d i f f e r e n c e f o r t h e se c o n d p r i v a t e c o l l e g e .
N u l l h y p o t h e s i s num ber f i v e , "T here i s no d i f f e r e n c e b e
tw e en t h e mean d i s s o n a n c e s c o r e o f s t u d e n t s who d rop o u t
and t h o s e who do n o t d ro p o u t o f c o l l e g e , " was r e j e c t e d a t
t h e f i r s t p r i v a t e c o l l e g e b u t a c c e p t e d a t t h e se co n d p r i
v a t e c o l l e g e . T h is p o r t i o n o f t h e s t u d y was an e x t e n s i o n
o f t h e o r i g i n a l p r o p o s a l and t h e r e f o r e t h e r e m a in in g h y
p o t h e s e s w e re n o t c h e c k e d . The s c o r e s u s e d w ere t h e same
a s t h o s e f o r w h ich t h e o t h e r h y p o th e s e s h a d a l r e a d y been
c h e c k e d .
A f t e r one y e a r o f a t t e n d a n c e , n u l l h y p o t h e s i s num
b e r f i v e was c h e c k e d f o r t h e two p r i v a t e c o l l e g e s (T a b le 5*
Summary o f R e s u l t s ) . At t h e f i r s t p r i v a t e c o l l e g e , t h e
n u l l h y p o t h e s i s c o u ld be r e j e c t e d b u t a t t h e Becond p r i v a t e
c o l l e g e i t was a c c e p t e d . The r e j e c t i o n was s i g n i f i c a n t a t
t h e .05 l e v e l a s t h e t s c o r e was 2 .6 2 and t h e sam ple i n
v o lv e d 101 s t u d e n t s . The p o i n t b i s e r l a l c o r r e l a t i o n b e
tw e en h i g h d i s s o n a n c e s c o r e and d r o p o u t s a t t h e f i r s t
68
TABLE 4
FINDINGS AFTER ONE YEAR
Frequency D istribution of Scores
1st Private College 2nd Private College
Class In terv al Returned Did Not Return Returned Did Not Return
1-2 0 0 0 1
3-4 8 8 2 2
5-6
13
4 11
5
7-8 2 0 8 2
9-10
2
1 10 4
11-12 2
3 7 3
13-l4 6 6
9
4
15-16 4 8
9 3
17-18
3
2 11
5
19-20 4
9 5 3
21-22 1
5 9 5
23-24 2 4 1 1
25-26 1 0 0 0
27-28 1 0 l
29-30
1 1 0
N 49 52
83 39
X 10.8 14.6 13.2 13.4
-3.8 .2
.............................. " ......................v .............................................................* ...............................................................’ ...........................................................~ .......................................' 69
p r i v a t e c o l l e g e wao a p o s i t i v e . 2 / w ith a s t a n d a r d e r r o r o f
0 .1 and a s i g n i f i c a n t t s c o r e o f 2 ,8 7 f o r 99 d e g r e e s o f
fre e d o m .
TABUS
5
SU M M A R Y OP Riasui/rs
Hypothesis
No.
P ilo t
Study
After One Term
All Samples Pooled FJC0 , l e t PC 2nd PC
1 Accept Reject Reject Reject Reject
2 Reject Accepted for
two majors
3
Accept Accept Accept
k Accept Accept Accept Accept
5
Accept Accept Accept
See page 9 fo r definition s; FJC means public Junior college
and PC means private college.
CHAPTER VI
SUMMARY, CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
Summary
The P roblem
The p r e d i c t i o n o f w h ich B tu d e n ts w i l l p r o b a b l y c o n
t i n u e t o a t t e n d c o l l e g e u n t i l g r a d u a t i o n I s u s u a l l y b a se d
on t h e h i s t o r i c a l r e c o r d o f academ ic p e rfo rm a n c e w ith l i t t l e
r e g a r d f o r s t u d e n t com m itm ent. Commitment how ever does a f
f e c t r e t e n t i o n , and I t a l s o r e s u l t s I n d i s s o n a n c e . T h is
s t u d y a t t e m p t s t o show t h a t an e m p i r i c a l r e l a t i o n c a n e x i s t
b e tw ee n d i s s o n a n c e a s m e a su re d i n t h e s e e x p e r im e n ts and t h e
r e t e n t i o n o f s t u d e n t s i n c o l l e g e .
P r o c e d u r e
The m a j o r i t y o f 1968 new s t u d e n t s a t two s m a ll p r i
v a t e c o l l e g e s and a l a r g e sam ple o f s t u d e n t s a t a p u b l i c
j u n i o r c o l l e g e c o m p le te d t h e d i s s o n a n c e I n s t r u m e n t a t t h e
b e g in n i n g o f t h e te rm . The t e s t I n s t r u m e n t a s k e d s t u d e n t s
t o r a t e t h e u n c h o s e n a l t e r n a t i v e s o f t h r e e o t h e r I n s t i t u
t i o n s , o c c u p a ti o n o r c a r e e r , m i l i t a r y s e r v i c e , and o t h e r on
a f i v e p o i n t d e s i r a b i l i t y s c a l e . They a l s o r a t e d t h e Im
p o r t a n c e o f t h e c h o ic e o f c o l l e g e on a f i v e p o i n t s c a l e and
a l l s c o r e s w ere ad d ed t o p ro d u c e t h e d i s s o n a n c e s c o r e . The
70
71
retention of these 5 1 8 s t u d e n t s waB followed and the disso
nance of the dropouts compared with the perslstors.
F i n d i n g s
.1, A t t e s t d i d n o t I n d i c a t e a d e f i n i t e r e l a t i o n
s h ip b e tw e e n d i s s o n a n c e and d r o p o u t a t t h e end o f one te r m
of c o l l e g e .
2. At t h e end o f one a cad em ic y e a r , one o f t h e
two c o l l e g e s d i d show a r e l a t i o n s h i p f o r se c o n d and t h i r d
q u a r t e r d r o p o u tb . H igh mean d is s o n a n c e was a s s o c i a t e d w i t h
t h e s e d r o p o u ts a s t h e n u l l h y p o t h e s i s was r e j e c t e d a t t h e
.05 l e v e l o f s i g n i f i c a n c e s i n c e t h e t t e s t r e s u l t was 2 . 6 2 .
The t e s t in v o lv e d 101 s t u d e n t s and t h e p o i n t b l s e r i a l c o r
r e l a t i o n was .2 7 w i t h a s t a n d a r d e r r o r o f 0 .1 an d a s i g n i f
i c a n t t s c o r e o f 2 .8 7 f o r 99 d e g r e e s o f fre e d o m .
3. The mean d is s o n a n c e s c o r e o f t h e m a jo rs t e s t e d
d id n o t v a r y s i g n i f i c a n t l y fro m t h e mean o f t h e c o l l e g e i n
w hich i t was o f f e r e d .
4 . The p i l o t s t u d y d i s s o n a n c e s c o r e s w ere u n e x
p e c t e d l y h i g h e r t h a n t h e r e s u l t s o f t h e main s t u d y .
C o n c lu s io n s
The flo w c h a r t s d e r i v e d f o r t h e d e c i s i o n p r o c e s s i n
c o l l e g e a t t e n d a n c e i n d i c a t e t h a t a num ber o f v a r i a b l e s a f
f e c t c o l l e g e a t t e n d a n c e . Many o f t h e s e v a r i a b l e s h a v e b e en
s t u d i e d , and t h e r e s u l t s h a v e b e e n r e p o r t e d i n t h e l i t e r a -
t u r e b u t one w hich h a s n o t b een r e p o r t e d p r e v i o u s l y i s d i s
so n a n c e r e s u l t i n g from t h e d e c i s i o n t o a t t e n d any c e r t a i n
c o l l e g e . C h a rt l 4 (page 4 5 ) I n d i c a t e s t h e d e c i s i o n and p o st
d e c i s i o n a l c y c l e o r c y c l e s w h ich f o l l o w . D is s o n a n c e i s a
p a r t o f t h e p o s t d e c i s i o n a l c y c l e a s a com ponent o f f e e d
b a c k and d u r i n g e a c h r e p e t i t i o n o f t h e c y c l e a f t e r a r e
newed d e c i s i o n . D is s o n a n c e a f f e c t s a t t i t u d e and t h e s e a r c h
f o r m ea n s-e n d s r e l a t i o n s . C h a rt 15 c a l l s a t t e n t i o n n o t
o n l y t o t h e r a t e o f s e a r c h b u t t o t h e s t u d e n t >s p r o p e n s i t y
t o s e a r c h w h ic h i s an a t t i t u d e l i k e t h a t m e n tio n e d i n C h a rt
14 . D is s o n a n c e t h e n i s a v a r i a b l e c o n t r i b u t i n g t o t h e p r o c
e s s t h a t r e s u l t s i n p o s i t i v e o r n e g a t i v e m o t i v a t i o n as i n
d i c a t e d i n C h a r t 14 J u s t b e f o r e t h e d e c i s i o n . Time may
cum m ulate t h e d i s s o n a n c e e f f e c t w i t h i n c r e a s e d num bers o f
c y c l e s . A c y c l e may be d e f i n e d as a l l r e l e v a n t c o g n i t i o n s
/
e x p e r i e n c e d b e tw e e n t h e d e c i s i o n t o a t t e n d and t h e n e x t
c o n s c i o u s a t t e n d a n c e d e c i s i o n .
The e x p e r i m e n t a l s t u d y o f t h e e m p i r i c a l r e l a t i o n
b e tw e e n d i s s o n a n c e and t h e d ro p o u t seems t o i n d i c a t e t h e
f o l l o w i n g c o n c l u s i o n s :
1. The r e s u l t s a f t e r one te r m do n o t I n d i c a t e t h a t
d i s s o n a n c e a s m easu red i n t h i s s t u d y c an be u s e d t o i d e n
t i f y p r o b a b l e d r o p o u ts d u r i n g t h e e a r l y p o r t i o n o f t h e i r
e n r o l l m e n t . I t w ould t h e r e f o r e a p p e a r t h a t d i s s o n a n c e a s
m e a su re d i n t h i s s tu d y i s n o t s u f f i c i e n t l y c r i t i c a l a 3 a
v a r i a b l e i n t h e d e c i s i o n p r o c e s s t o h a v e a c o n t r o l l i n g
73
e f f e c t upon t h e d e c i s i o n o f s t u d e n t s t o re m a in i n a tt e n d a n c e
d u r i n g t h e i r f i r s t te r m . I f d i s s o n a n c e c o n t r o l l e d s t u d e n t
p e r c e p t i o n o f a l l o t h e r v a r i a b l e s , h i g h d i s s o n a n c e would
p r o b a b l y l e a d t o e a r l y d r o p o u t s .
2. The r e s u l t s a f t e r one academ ic y e a r a r e am bigu
ous ab o u t t h e e m p i r i c a l r e l a t i o n b e tw e e n d i s s o n a n c e a s m eas
u r e d i n t h i B s tu d y and t h e d r o p o u t . H igh mean d i s s o n a n c e
was a s s o c i a t e d w ith t h e g ro u p o f B tu d e n ts who d ro p p e d o u t oi
c o l l e g e d u r i n g t h e i r s e c o n d and t h i r d q u a r t e r a t one o f t h e
c o l l e g e s . W hile t h i s was n o t t r u e a t t h e - o t h e r c o l l e g e
t e s t e d on a n a n n u a l b a s i s , i t d o e s n o t mean t h a t no e m p i r i
c a l r e l a t i o n e x i s t s , b u t i t may i n d i c a t e t h a t t h i s r e l a t i o n
s h i p v a r i e s from campus t o cam pus. The f a c t t h a t t h e r e was
a p o s i t i v e c o r r e l a t i o n i s s u g g e s t i v e t h a t e m p i r i c a l l y a r e
l a t i o n s h i p d o e s e x i s t .
3 . D is s o n a n c e i s n o t r e l a t e d t o t h e s t u d e n t ' s ma
j o r . I t w ould seem l o g i c a l t h a t s t u d e n t s i n m a jo r s w h ic h
do n o t h a v e e q u i v a l e n t a l t e r n a t i v e s would h a v e lo w e r d i s s o
n a n c e s c o r e s . A lth o u g h one o f t h e m a jo rs t e s t e d p r o b a b l y
d o e s n o t h a v e e q u i v a l e n t e d u c a t i o n a l a l t e r n a t i v e s i n t h e
Los A n g e les a r e a I t s mean d i s s o n a n c e s c o r e d i d n o t v a r y
s i g n i f i c a n t l y from t h e mean o f t h e c o l l e g e i n w hich i t was
o f f e r e d .
4 . The p i l o t s t u d y r e s u l t b v a r i e d u n e x p e c te d ly
fro m t h e r e s u l t s o f t h e m ain s t u d y i n s e v e r a l w ays. F i r s t ,
t h e mean d i s s o n a n c e s c o r e o f t h e p i l o t s t u d y was more t h a n
74
one s t a n d a r d d e v i a t i o n abo v e t h e mean o f an y c o l l e g e i n t h e
s t u d y . S e c o n d , t h e p i l o t s t u d y ' s s t a n d a r d d e v i a t i o n i s
l e s s t h a n h a l f o f t h e s i z e o f t h e m ain s t u d y ' s s t a n d a r d
d e v i a t i o n . T h i r d , t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f d i s s o n a n c e s c o r e s i n
t h e p i l o t s t u d y a p p e a r e d t o h a v e a n o rm a l form w h i l e t h e
m a in s t u d y d i d n o t .
S i n c e t h e p i l o t s t u d y p r o c e d u r e d i f f e r e d p r i m a r i l y
i n t h e t im e o f a d m i n i s t r a t i o n fro m t h a t o f t h e m a in s t u d y ,
t im e o f a d m i n i s t r a t i o n l o g i c a l l y i s a c a u s e t o c o n s i d e r i n
e x p l a i n i n g t h e r e s u l t i n g v a r i a t i o n s . D is s o n a n c e t h e o r y
p o i n t s o u t t h a t d i s s o n a n c e B hould b e h i g h e s t I m m e d ia te ly
a f t e r t h e d e c i s i o n . A ssum ing t h e t h e o r y i s c o r r e c t , t h e n
i t c a n be i n f e r r e d t h a t t h e m ain s t u d y was n o t done im m ed i
a t e l y a f t e r t h e d e c i s i o n t o a t t e n d c o l l e g e . T h i s i s a v e r y
r e a l p o s s i b i l i t y b u t due t o c u r r e n t t r e n d s i n e n r o l l m e n t ,
i t i s t h e e a r l i e s t t h a t com m itm ent c a n be c e r t a i n . D i s s o
n a n c e r e d u c t i o n b e f o r e e n t r a n c e i s q u i t e p r o b a b l e d u r i n g
t h e I n t e r i m . A p p a r e n t l y i n t h e p i l o t s t u d y t h e d i s s o n a n c e
s c o r e s r o s e d u r i n g t h e tim e d e l a y a f t e r e n t r a n c e an d i f
s t u d e n t s c o n t i n u e t o h a v e r i s i n g d i s s o n a n c e t h e y w ould b e
e x p e c t e d t o r e v o k e t h e i r a t t e n d a n c e d e c i s i o n t o a v o i d o r
r e d u c e h i g h d i s s o n a n c e .
5 . From t h e p r e c e d i n g d i s c u s s i o n i t i s p r o b a b l e
t h a t a som ewhat l a t e r t i m e o f a d m i n i s t r a t i o n o f t h e t e s t i n
t h e t e r m w o u ld show h i g h e r d i s s o n a n c e s c o r e s . D is s o n a n c e
t h e o r y s u g g e s t s t h a t r e d u c t i o n o f d i s s o n a n c e i s i m p o r t a n t
75
b e c a u s e t h e d e c i s i o n w i l l be re v o k e d i f i t c o n t i n u e s t o
r i s e . T h us, t h e b e s t tim e t o r u n a d is s o n a n c e t e s t i s u n
c e r t a i n b u t i t s h o u ld be l a t e enough t o h e lp i d e n t i f y p o
t e n t i a l d r o p o u ts and e a r l y enough t o h e l p p r e v e n t d r o p o u t s .
W hile many g e n e r a l i z a t i o n s may seem p r o b a b l e and -
i n t e r e s t i n g , t h e f o l l o w i n g f i v e seem t o be a d e q u a t e l y su p
p o r t e d by t h e e v id e n c e g a t h e r e d i n t h i s s tu d y .
1. D is s o n a n c e a s m easu red i n t h i s s tu d y c a n n o t be
u s e d t o p r e d i c t d r o p o u t s d u r i n g t h e i r f i r s t te rm .
2. H igh mean d is s o n a n c e was a s s o c i a t e d w i t h se c o n d
and t h i r d q u a r t e r d r o p o u t s a t one o f t h e c o l l e g e s
b u t n o t t h e o t h e r . Mean d is s o n a n c e due t o c h o ic e
o f c o l l e g e p r o b a b l y v a r i e s fro m campus t o cam pus,
3 . D iss o n a n c e s c o r e s a r e n o t r e l a t e d t o c o l l e g e m a jo r.
4 . Commitment t o a t t e n d a g i v e n c o l l e g e o c c u r s lo n g
b e f o r e e n t r a n c e and d i s s o n a n c e f r e q u e n t l y r i s e s
a f t e r e n r o l l m e n t .
5 . The b e s t tim e t o r u n a d i s s o n a n c e t e s t i s u n c e r
t a i n . An e a r l y t e s t may g i v e low r e s u l t s b u t a
l a t e t e s t may n o t a llo w t im e t o u s e r e s u l t s t o
h e l p p r e v e n t d r o p o u t s .
. Recom m endations f o r C o lle g e s
1 . F u r t h e r i n s t i t u t i o n a l r e s e a r c h i s n e e d e d to
d e te r m i n e why s t u d e n t s d ro p and t h e change i n d i s s o n a n c e
d u r i n g t h e s t u d e n t s ' s t a y a t e a c h I n d i v i d u a l c o l l e g e . The
76
c a u s e s o f d i s s o n a n c e o r t h e l a c k of i t may he due t o com
m itm ent t o t h i n g s o r c o n c e p ts o t h e r t h a n c h o ic e o f c o l l e g e
and eac h campus s h o u ld know what t h e s e p r o b a b l y a re f o r
t h e m s e l v e s . Xf t h i s c a n be d e te r m in e d , t h e r e t e n t i o n o f
s t u d e n t s may be more i n t e l l i g e n t l y i n f l u e n c e d by i n s t i t u
t i o n a l s t a f f members.
2. The c o u n s e l i n g and g u id a n c e p ro g ram o f th e c o l
l e g e a s w e l l a s o t h e r f a c e t s o f c o l l e g e l i f e n e ed t o work
to w a rd r e d u c i n g d i s s o n a n c e e s p e c i a l l y i n t h e b e g in n i n g of
e n r o l l m e n t a s d i s s o n a n c e may a f f e c t p e r c e p t i o n o f l a t e r i n
f o r m a t i o n .
3 . S in c e commitment does a f f e c t r e t e n t i o n , t h e s e
l e c t i o n o f s t u d e n t s s h o u ld b e b a s e d p a r t i a l l y and p r o b a b l y
h e a v i l y upon com m itm ent.
4 . The p e r s o n s m ost l i k e l y t o b e n e f i t fro m r e
s e a r c h on t h e d r o p o u t , d i s s o n a n c e , e t c . may be t h e f u t u r e
s t u d e n t b u t t h e o n ly p e r s o n s d i r e c t l y b e n e f i t e d who a l s o
c a n do t h e r e q u i r e d r e s e a r c h i s t h e i n s t i t u t i o n a l s t a f f
member, i n s t i t u t i o n s s h o u ld e n c o u ra g e and d i r e c t su c h r e
s e a r c h f o r i t s own i n t e r e s t s .
R ecom m endations f o r F u r t h e r R e s e a r c h
On t h e b a s i s o f t h e f i n d i n g s o f t h i s s t u d y , i t may
b e recommended t h a t t
1. More e x a c t and more c o m p re h e n s iv e m o d els o f t h e
p ro b le m n e e d t o be d e v e lo p e d . A r e s e a r c h e r who i s v e r y
77
co m p e te n t I n t h e a p p l i c a t i o n o f c o m p u ters t o models may fine,
t h e q u a n t i t a t i v e s e c t i o n s of N i c o s i a 's ( l 2 : x i ) work an e x
c e l l e n t b a s i s f o r d e v e lo p in g a c o m p re h e n s iv e scheme f o r en
r o l l m e n t p r e d i c t i o n an d r e t e n t i o n . C e r t a i n l y q u a n t i t a t i v e
a n a l y s i s i s one o f N i c o s i a ' s g o a l s b u t t h e m a t e r i a l i s f a r
fro m s im p le so t h a t a team o f r e s e a r c h e r s m ig ht be more
s u c c e s s f u l . The v a r i a b l e s i n v o l v e d I n p r e d i c t i o n a r e many
and sim p le i n d i c a t o r s su c h a s h ig h s c h o o l g r a d e p o i n t a v e r
age a r e n o t a d e q u a te t o d i s t i n g u i s h t h e p r o b a b l e s u c c e s s f u l
s t u d e n t b u t t o i s o l a t e t h e c a u s e s of f a i l u r e so t h a t t h e y
c a n be c o r r e c t e d , b u t no co m p u ter how ever l a r g e i s an y b e t
t e r t h a n t h e p ro g ram o r model w hich i s f e d t o i t . Some
t h i n k i n g man must t r y t o make i t t h i n k o f e v e r y t h i n g a n d
I n c l u d e some p r o v i s i o n f o r m ercy a s men a r e n o t r e a d y t o
l i v e ev en w i t h j u s t i c e , much l e s s a r b i t r a r y v a lu e s o f p r o b
a b i l i t y a s c o n t r o l l e r s o f t h e i r f a t e .
2. M u l t i p l e c o r r e l a t i o n and m u l t i p l e r e g r e s s i o n
e q u a t io n s may be o f c o n s i d e r a b l e i n t e r e s t t o c o l l e g e a d m is
s i o n s o f f i c e s . Commitments and d lB so n a n c e w h ich r e s u l t s
a r e v a r i a b l e s n o t f r e q u e n t l y s t u d i e d , b u t t h e y may be t h e
c a u s e o f much o f t h e v a r i a t i o n s n o t y e t p r e d i c t e d by h i g h
s c h o o l g r a d e p o i n t a v e r a g e and n a t i o n a l exam s. U s u a l l y
c o r r e l a t i o n f i g u r e s c a n n o t be add ed b e c a u s e some o f t h e
f a c t o r s I n v o lv e d a r e common t o b o th i n d i c e s u s e d . P e rh a p s
t h e r e i s l e s s o v e r l a y i n d i s s o n a n c e w h ich may make I t s
78
s m a ll c o n t r i b u t i o n more I m p o r ta n t t h a n m ig h t be su p p o se d
i n i t i a l l y .
3 . A d d i t i o n a l r e s e a r c h on t h e e f f e c t s o f com m it
m ents upon r e t e n t i o n i n c o l l e g e and a d m is s io n s t o c o l l e g e
need t o be c o m p le te d . Numerous com m itm ents can be made by
s t u d e n t s w hich may a f f e c t e n r o llm e n t from b e f o r e a d m is s io n s
u n t i l g r a d u a t i o n . Some o f t h e s e a r e o c c u p a t i o n a l com m it
m e n ts, r e l i g i o u s com m itm ents, I n t e l l e c t u a l com m itm ents, p o
l i t i c a l com m itm ents, e t c . The c h o ic e o f c o l l e g e may depend
on t h e c o n g ru e n c e o f th e s t u d e n t ' s commitment w i t h t h e c o l
l e g e ' s commitment and r e s u l t i n g d i s s o n a n c e e f f e c t s a f t e r
a t t e n d a n c e .
5. The a f f e c t o f commitment and d i s s o n a n c e on t h e
ch ang e o f s t u d e n t s ' a t t i t u d e d u r i n g in v o lv e m e n t s h o u l d -be
s t u d i e d . I n v o lv e m e n t a lo n e may n o t be enough t o p ro d u c e
t h e d e s i r e d c h a n g e .
5. I n f u t u r e s t u d i e s t h e f a c t t h a t t h e a t t e n d a n c e
d e c i s i o n i s made lo n g b e f o r e e n t r a n c e s h o u ld be c o n s i d e r e d
I n t h e d e s i g n o f t h e e x p e r i m e n t s .
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t i o n a s a means o f r e d u c i n g c o g n i t i v e d i s s o n a n c e .
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D e u tsc h , M a r t in , & S t e e l e , Kay. A t t i t u d e d i s s o n a n c e among
S o u t h v i l l e ' s I n t e l l e c t u a l s , J . Soc. I s s . , 1959* 15*
4 4 -5 2 .
D e u ts c h , M orton, K r a u s s , R ., & T o sen au , N orah. D iss o n a n c e
o r d e f e n s i v e n e s s ? J . P e r s . , 1 9 6 2, 3 0 , 1 6 -2 8 .
F e s t i n g e r , L. A t h e o r y o f c o g n i t i v e d i s s o n a n c e , S t a n f o r d :
S t a n f o r d U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1957*
F e s t i n g e r , L . , & B ra m e l, D. The r e a c t i o n s o f humans t o
c o g n i t i v e d i s s o n a n c e . In A. B a c h ra c h ( E d . ) , The e x p e
r i m e n t a l f o u n d a t i o n s o f c l i n i c a l p s y c h o l o g y . HfTevTTiork:
B a sic Books, 1962.
R a b b le , J . M., Brehm, J . W., & Cohen, A. R. V e r b a l i z a t i o n
and r e a c t i o n s t o c o g n i t i v e d i s s o n a n c e , J . P e r s . , 1959*
27, 4 0 7 -4 1 7 .
S m ith, E. E. The pow er o f d i s s o n a n c e t e c h n i q u e s t o chan ge
a t t i t u d e s . P u b l. O pin. Q u a r t . , 1961, 25, 6 2 6 -6 3 9 .
84
APPENDIX I
THE PILOT STUDY'S RAN DATA
85
PILOT STUDY SAMPLE
Q u e s tio n No.
S tu d e n t -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
No. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 T o t a l
1 2 2 2 2 1 2
5
16
2
3
2 2
3
1 2
5
18
3
2 4
5
2 1 2 4 20
4
3 3 3 3 3 3
2 20
5 5
4
3
12
6 4 4
3 5 5
21
7 5 5 5 5
1
3
24
8
5 5 5 5 5 5 5 35
9 5 5 5
4
5 5 3
32
10
5
4 4 4
7
22
11 4
5 3 5
4 21
12 4 5 5
14
13 5
4
3
4 16
14 4
5 5
2
3
4 23
15
2 2 2
5
1
3 3
18
16 4 4 4
5 3
2 22
IT
4 5 3 5
4 2 4 27
18 4 5 3
2 4 18
19
4 4
3
4 1
5
21
20
5
4 1
5
1 2
5 23
21
5
4
3
2 1 4
19
22
5
4 4 2 2 2
3
22
23 5 3
2
5
2 2
3
22
24
5
4 1 2 2 1 4
19
25
4 5
2
3
1 1
5
21
26 4 4 4 2 2 2
3
21
27
1 4
5
8 6
APPENDIX II
THE RAW DATA
87
STUDENTS W H O REENTERED THE PUBKCC JUNIOR COLLEGE
Question No.
Student No. I 2 3 4 5 6 7
1
5
4
5
2 4
2
5
4 2 4
3 3
1 4
4
5
5 3 3 5
6
5
USC CSCLB 4
7
4
8
3
2
5 3 4
9
4 1 4
10 2
5
11
3
12 2
5
13
1
3
14
3
4
15
4
5
16 2
3
17
4
5 1
1
5
18 5
19 5 3 3
20 1 2 4
21
5 5
22 2 2
3
23 5
4
3
24 4 2 1
5
25 3 3
4
26 2
3
4
27
4
3
28 4
29 5 5
8 8
STUDENTS WHO REENTERED THE PUBLIC
(Continued)
JUNIOR COLLEGE
89
Student No.
Question No.
1 2
3
4
5
6
7
30 4 4
3
31 5
32 5 3 5
33 5 5 5 3 5
34 3
35
4
36 3
37
4
38 2 4
5
39 5
4o 2 2 2 2
5
4
41 4 1
5
42 3
43
4
44 2 1
3
45 5
2 1 4
46
5
1 4
47 5 3
48 5
4 9 5 5 5
50 3
51
2
52
3
2 1 2 4
53
2 4
54 5 3
55
4 4
.56 3 3
4
3 5
4
3
57
2 4
58 4
3
STUDENTS W H O REENTERED THE PUBLIC JUNIOR COLLEGE
(C o n tin u e d )
Q u e s tio n No.
S tu d e n t N o.
59 5 5 4
6 0 3 5
Si 4 : 4
6 2 4 3 - 4
63 5 2 . 4
64 4 3 5 2
65 5 4 3 2 1 4 3
66 2 4
67 4 4
68 4 1 5
69 1 4 3
70 5
71 3
72 4 4 4
73 5
74 4 4 4 3 5
75 4 3
76 2 1 1 3 2 4
77 4
78 - 2 4
79 5 5 3
80 - 2 4
81 4 5
82 4 3 2 1 2 4
83 4 4
84 5 3
85 2 2 2 4 5
86 5 5 1 5
87 4 PCC MTSAC 2 5
91
STUDENTS W H O REENTERED THE PUBLIC JUNIOR COLLEGE
(C o n tin u e d )
Q u e stio n No.
Student No. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
88 3 3
89 4 1 3
90 4 1 3 4
91 1 4
92 - 1 2 4
93 5
94 1 1 2 3 1 5
95 1 5 5 5 5 5
96 3 3 3 5 1 4
97 5 3 3 3
98 3 2 2 2 2 1 4
99 4 4 4 5 3 4
100 5 5 5 5
101 3 5 4
102 3 3 1 1 3
103 5 4 1 2 1 2 5
104 3 3 3 3 1 4
105 5 4
106 4 1 1 4
107 1 1 4
108 4
109 2 5
110 • 5 4 2 2 1 5
111 NEW M. 4 3 4
112 5 5 4 1 2 1 5
113 5 5 5 2 1 3
114 2 2
115 ' 5 4 2 1 3
116 2 4
STUDENTS W H O REENTERED THE PUBLIC JUNIOR COLLEGE
(C o n tin u e d
Q u e s t io n N o.
S tu d e n t N o. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
117
4 4
118
5
4
3
2 1
5
119 5 5 -
4 2 1 4
120 4
121
5 5 5
4 1
5
122
3
4 4
123
-
3
124 4 2
3 3
125
1 2
3
4 4 4
3
126 4
127 5 5
4 1
3
128 2 1
5
129 .. 4 2 2
130 1 1 4
131
2 4 4
132
5
2 2
133
1 1
5 3
134 4
3
l 4
135
4 1
5
136
3 3 3 3
1
5
137
4
138
3
1 1 5
139
2 2
3 3
l
5
140
5
4
5 3
2
3
l 4 l
5
4
3
4
5 3
4
142 1 1
5
143 3
144 4 5
145 5
93
STUDENTS WHO REENTERED THE PUBLIC JUNIOR COLI.HaE
(C o n tin u e d )
Q u e s t i o n No.
S tu d e n t N o. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
146
5
4 4
1 47 5
4
148 4
14 9
4 2 2 4
150
5
4 4
3 5 3
■151
1 1 1
3 5
4
152 4 4
3
153 5 5
154 2
3
155 5
156
5
157 3
158
3 5
1 5 9
4 1 1
5
160
3
4
161 4 4
162 1
5
163 5 5 5 5
2
5
164 4 2 4
165 5 5
4
166
5 5
2 1
5
167 5
2 1 4
168
5 3 3
2 2 4
169 5
170 2 1 4
1 7 1 3 3
172 4
3
4
1 5
173
2 4
174 4 4 4 2 4
5
94
STUDENTS W H O REENTERED THE PUBLIC JUNIOR COLLEGE
(C o n tin u e d )
Q u e s t i o n N o.
S t u d e n t N o. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
175 CSCLB UCR PUBLIC RELATION 4
1 76 5 ^ 3 2 2 2 4
177 2 3 1 5 3 1 4
1 78 5 5 5 2 2 3 4
1 7 9 4 4 4 4
180 5 4 3 3 1 4
181 2 '3 1 3 .1 2 5
182 4 5 2 4 1 4
183 4 3
STUDENTS W H O DID NOT REENTER THE PUBLIC JUNIOR
95
COLLEGE
S t u d e n t N o.
Q u e s tio n No •
1 2
3 . 4.. 5
6
7
1
5 .
4 1
5
2
3 3
3
4
4 2 2 2
5 3
5 5 5 3
6
5
4 •4 2
5
7
4 2
8
3
9
- 4 4
10
5
4 4
.11 5 3
4
5
12 4 4
13
4 4
l 4
5
4 1 4
15 5
4 4 4
16
3
17 5 5 3 5
18 5
2
3
19 5
2 1
5
20 4 4 4 4 1
3 5
21
3 3 3
2 2 4
22 4
3
4
23
4
3 5 3
24 3
25
4
3 3
2 2 4
26
5
4 2 5
27 3
28 CSCLB
5
29 5
1 3
STUDENTS W HO DID NOT REENTER THE
( C o n tin u e d )
PUBLIC JUNIOR
c
COLLEGE
Q u e s tio n No
S tu d e n t N o. 1 2
3
4 5 6 7
30
5
31
2
5
32 3
1 4
33 5
34 3 3
4
35 3
2 4
36 4 1
5
37 5
2 1 3
38 4 4
3
2 1
5
39
2 4 4
5 5
40 3
1 2 1
3
4 l 5 3
4 2 5 3 3
43
1 CSCLA CSCE 1
5
44 1 1 4
45
1 1
3
46 1 1 4
47 ‘5 5
9 6
STUDENTS W H O REENTERED THE FIRST PRIVATE ACCREDITED
FOUR YEAR COLLEGE
Q u e s tio n N o. ^
S tu d e n t N o. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
1 4 4 3 4 15
2 5
3 4
4 4 4 4 5 3 5
5 4
6 5
7 3 3 3 5 1 4
8 5 4 5 5 1 3 5
9 2 5
10 5
11 3 2 1 1 2 5
12 3 4 2 5
13 3 3 3 5 1 4
14 3
15 4
16 4 2 5 2 1 4
17 3 3 1 1 1 4
18 5
19 3
20 4
21 3 2 1 5 5
22 1 3
23 5 1 3 4 1 3
24 5 2 5
25 5 5 5
26 5 4 5
27 4 2 2 1 1 1 4
28 4 4 3
29 4
98
STUDENTS W H O REENTERED THE FIRST PRIVATE ACCREDITED
FOUR YEAR COLLEGE
(C o n tin u e d )
Q u e s tio n No.
S tu d e n t N o. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
30 3 3 3 4 3 1 5
31 5 5 5
32 3 4 4 5 3 5
33 5 5 4
34 5
35 4 3 2 1 1 3
36 5
37 5
38 5 1 4
39 1 5
40 5
41 5 4 4 2 2 5
42 3
43 5 5 4 5 1 2 4
44 4 3 3 3 1 2 4
45 3 3 3 5 5
46 2 3 2 2 1 5
47 2 2 1 2 4 5
48 5 4 4
49 3 3 3 3 3 3 5
50 3 3 3 5 1 5
51 5
52 ‘ 5 5 4 2 1 1 5
53 2 2 2 1 5
5 4 . „ 4 3 5
55 3 2 4 5 1 5
56 4 3 1 2 2 5
57 5
99
STUDENTS W H O REENTERED THE FIRST PRIVATE ACCREDITED
FOUR YEAR C O LIEGE
(C o n tin u e d )
Q u e s tio n N o,
S tu d e n t N o. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
58 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
59 5
60 4 1 1 1 1 1 4
61 3 1 4 1 4
62 3 4
63 4 4 4 3 5
64 4 4 2 1 5
65 4 4 3 4 - 1 5
66 5 5
67 3
68 4 3 2 2 4
69 5 5 5 5
70 5
71 5 5 5 5 5 5
72 4
73 ‘ 4
74 2 4 4 1 5
75 4 4 4 5 2 4
76 5 4 4
77 5
78 4 2 2 1 1 1 4
79 4 5
80 5 3 4
81 5
82 4
83 4 3 3 1 1 4
84 4
85 4 4 4 4 4 4
1 0 0
STUDENTS W H O REENTERED THE FIRST PRIVATE ACCREDITED
FOUR YEAR COLLEGE
(C o n tin u e d )
S tu d e n t N o.
Q u e s tio n N o.
1 2
3
4
5
6
7
86 3 2 2 2
5
87 5
88 2 2 2 2 1 1
5
89
4 4 4 2 4
90 5
2
5
1 1
5
91 4
9 2 3
2 4
93 5 3 3 5
4
94
2 2 2
5
1 2
5
95
4 4 4 4 1 1 4
96 3 3 3 5
2 4
97 5
98 4 4 4 2 1
5
99
4
100 4
3 3
1 1
5
1 0 1
STUDENTS W H O DID NOT REENTER THE EIRST PRIVATE ACCREDITED
POUR YEAR COLIEOE
S tu d e n t N o.
Q u e s tio n N o.
1 2
3
4
5
6
7
1
3 4 2 4
2
5
3 5
4 4 1 1 1 1 1 5
5 5
6
5
4 4 5 3 3
7
4 4 4 5
2 2 4
8 4
9
4 4 4
5
1
5
10 4 4 4
11
5 4 4 5
12 5
4 2 4 1
3 5
13 5
4
14 4
15 3
2 1 4 1
5
16 1 4
17
4
18 4
19
2 2 2 1 1 1 4
20 5
21 5
22 4 2 5
4 4
23
4
24 4
25
. 4 2 2 1
5
26
3 3 3 3 3 3 3
27 5 5
4 4 4 4
5
28
3 3 3 3 3 3
4
1 0 2
STUDENTS W H O DID NOT REENTER THE FIRST PRIVATE ACCREDITED
. FOUR YEAR. COLITIGE
(C o n tin u e d )
S tu d e n t No.
Q u e s tio n N o.
1 2
3
4
5
6
7
29 5
30 1 2 1 1 1 1
5
31 5
3 2
5
33
1 1 1 1 1 1
5
34 5
1
3
35
2 2 1 2
3
36 1 1
5
3T
4
3
2 4 1 2
5
STUDENTS W H O REENTERED THE
POUR YEAR
SECOND PRIVATE
CORTEGE
103
ACCREDITED
Q u e s tio n N o.
S tu d e n t H o. 1 2
3
4
5
6
7
1 4
3
1 1 1
5
2
5 3 5
3
4 4 1 1 2
5
4 5
5 3 5 - - - 5
6
5
4 3
1 1 1
5
7
1 1 1 1
5
8
3
1 5
9
4 l 1 2 2 4
10 4
3 3
2 1 5
11
3 3 3
2 1
5
12
3 3 3
1 1
5
13 5
4
3 5 5
14 4 4 4 4 1 4
15 5
4 1 1 1
5
16
5
1
3
1 1
3 3
17 3
2 3
18 5
19 5 5 3
1 1 5
20 2 1 1 1 1 5
21 5
22 2 2 1 1 1 5
23
4 2 5
24 4 4 4 2 1
5
25 5
5
26 3
5
27
2 5
28 3
2 1
5
29
2 2 2 1 5
STUDENTS W H O REENTERED THE SECOND PRIVATE
POUR YEAR COLLEGE
( C o n tin u e d )
104
ACCREDITED
S tu d e n t N o.
Q u e s t i o n N o,
1 2
3
4
5
6
7
30 3 3 3 3 3 3
4
31 5 5 5
2
3
4
32 5
33 5
34 4
3
2
3
1 4
5
35
2 2 2 2 2 2 4
36 3
2
5
37
1 1 1 1 2
5
38
5
4
39 5
4
40 l 1 1 1
5
4 l
5 5 5
1 1 4
42
3
1 ' l 1 1
5
43
4 4 4 2 1 1
-5 -
4 4 4 3 ’
45
2 2
5
46 4
4 7
4
48
5
4 2 2 1 1 4
4 9
4
3
2 1 2
5
50 4 4
3
2 1 1 4
51 3 3 3
1 1
5
5 2 5
53 5
4
3
1 1 1
5
54
5
4 4
55
4
5
56 1 1 1 4 1
5
57 5
4 4 5
105
STUDENTS W H O REENTERED THE SECOND PRIVATE ACCREDITED
FOUR YEAR COLLEGE
(C o n tin u e d )
Q u e s tio n N o.
S tu d e n t N o. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
58 2 2 2 1 5
59 2 1 5
60 5
61 3 3 1 1 1 4
62 4 4 4 4 2 4 5
63 5
64 4 4 3 5
65 4 3 2 3 1 4 5
66 2 2 5
67 1 1 1 1 1 1 4
68 4 4 4 2 1 5
69 5 3 2 5 1 2 3
70 3 3 3 1 1 1 3
71 4
72 3 3 3 2 1 5
73 . 5
74 3 3 3 2 1 5
75 3 3 3
76 4 3
77 4 4 4 3 2 4
78 2 1 5
79 5 5 5 5 4
80 5
81 2 3 3 5
82 5
83 3 5
84 4 4
85 5 5 5 1 1 4
106
STUDENTS W H O REENTERED THE SECOND PRIVATE ACCREDITED
POUR YEAR COLIxEOE
(C o n tin u e d )
Q u e s t i o n N o.
S t u d e n t No. 1 2 - 3 4 5 6 7
86 1 3 3 1 1 4
8 7 2 3 1 1 1 5
88 3 3 3 1 1 5
8 9 4 5 5 1 1 5
g o 4 4
91 1 4 2 5
92 5 5 5 5 5 ^
9 3 3 3 3 1 1 5
9 4 5
9 5 4 3 3 1 1 5
9 6 5
9 7 5
98 4 1 1 5
9 9 2 2 2 3 1 3 5
100 4 3 3 2 4
101 4 3 3 2 1 1 5
102 4 3 3 2 1 4
103 3 3 3 2 1 5
104 4 3 3 5 1 5
105 4 3 1 - 5
106 3 3 3 1 1 5
107 4 3 4 3 2 4
108 3 3 2 2 1 3
109 5
110 5 2 3
111
112 4 2 2 5
113 2 2 2 3 1 1 5
STUDENTS W H O REENTERED THE SECOND PRIVATE ACCREDITED
FOUR YEAR COIDEGE
(C o n tin u e d )
S t u d e n t No.
Q u e s tio n No •
1 2
3
4
5
6
7
114 4
115 3 3 3
1 1
5
116 1
3
4 4 1 1
5
1 1 7
4 4 4
3
1
5
118 4
3 3 5
1 1
5
119 5
4 2 1 1
5
1 20 2
1 21 4
3
1 1 5
1 2 2 5
STUDENTS W HO DID NOT REENTER THE SECOND
FOUR YEAR COLLEGE
PRIVATE
108
ACCREDITED
S t u d e n t N o.
Q u e s t i o n N o.
1 2
3
4
5
6
7
1 4
2 4
3
2 4 1 4 o r 5 4
3 5
4
5
4
3
2 2
5
5 5 5 5
2 1 4
6 2 2 2
5
4
7 5
4
8
3 3 3
2 1 1
5
9
2 2 2
5
1 4
10
3 3
4
11
5
4
1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 4
13 5 5
4 2 1 4
1 4
3 5
15 3
2 1 4
3 3
4
16 1 2 2
3
1 1 4
17
4
5 3 5
1
5
18' - 4 4
3
1
5
19
2 2 1 4 1 4
20 5
21.
3 3
2 1 1
5
2 2 2
3
23 5 5 5 3
1
3
24 2 1 . 1 1 1
3
25 3 5
26 5
2 7 5
109
STUDENTS W H O DID NOT REENTER THE SECOND PRIVATE
POUR YEAR COLLEGE
(C o n tin u e d )
ACCREDITED
Q u e s tio n N o.
S tu d e n t No.
1 2 3 4 5 6 r
28
29
30
5
4
3 3 3 2 1 4
APPENDIX I I I
THE DISSONANCE SCORES
1 1 0
SUM M ARY OP STUDENT'S DISSONANCE SCORES
P u b l i c JC l 3 t P r i v a t e C o l l . 2nd P r i v a t e C o l l .
D id N ot D id N ot D id N o t
R e tu r n R e tu r n e d R e tu r n R e tu r n e d R e tu r n R e tu r n e d
1
15
20 13
21 4 15
2 6
15 5 5
22
13
3
4 8
5
4
5 17
4 14
5
14
25
21
5
5 13
11
5
4 22
13
6 20
9
24
5 15
20
7
6 4
25 19 9 9
8
3 17
4 28 18
9
9
8
9 23 7
16 l 4
10
13 7
12
5
10 18
11
17 3
18 19 9 17
12 8
7
24 14 10 16
13
8 4
9
14 21 22
l 4 14
7
4
3
8 21
15 17 9
16 4 20
17
16
3 5 5
18 14
17
17 18 16 4 13 23
8
18 10 4
5
17 5
19 13
11
13 3
14 20
20
25 7 5
4 5
11
21
17
10
5
16 15 5
22 11
7 19
*
5
12
23 15
12 4
17
22 11
24
3
12 4 12
9
20
25
18 10 14 15
8 10
26
17 9
21 l 4
5
8
G ran d
T o t a l
500
1991 4 3 7 1287 377 1609
1 1 1
SUMMARY OP STUDENT'S DISSONANCE
( C o n tin u e d )
SCORES
112
P u b l i c JC 1 s t P r i v a t e C o l l . 2 n d P r i v a t e C o l l .
D id N ot
R e tu r n R e tu r n e d
D id N ot
R e tu r n R e tu r n e d
D id N ot
R e tu r n R e tu r n e d
27 3 7 31 15 5 7
28
5
4 22 11
5
11
29 9
10
5
4 4 12
30 5
11 12 22 16 22
31 7 5 5 15
24
32 8
13 5
24
377 5
33 5
23 11 l 4
5
34 10
3 9 5
22
35 9
4 10 l 4 16
36 10 3 7 5 .
10
37
11 4 21
5
11
38
19
11 10 9
39
20 5 437
6 9
40 10 17
5 9
4 l 8 10 22 21
4 2 11
3 3
12
43 7
4 26 21
44 6 6 20 7
45 5
12
19 9
46 6 10 15
4
47
10 8 16 4
4 8 5 13 19
4 9
500 15
23 17
50 3 19 19
51
2 5
16
52
15
23 5
53
6 12 20
54
8
12 13
SUMMARY OP STUDENT'S DISSONANCE
( C o n tin u e d ) __
113
SCORES
P u b l i c JC
1 s t P r i v a t e C oll. 2nd P r i v a t e C o l l .
D id N o t D id N ot D id N ot
R e tu r n R e tu rn e d R e tu r n R e tu r n e d R e tu r n R e tu r n e d
55
8 20
9
56 25 17 13
57
6
5
18
58
7
21 12
59
14
5
8
60 8
13 5
61 8 13 13
62 11
7
27
63
11 20 5
64 14 16 16
65
22 21 22
66 6 10 9
67
8
3
10
68 10 15
20
6 9
8 20
21
70 5 5
15
71 3
30
4
72 12 4 17
73 5
4 5
74
20 16 17
75 7
23 9
76 13 13 7
77
4 5
21
78 6 15
8
7 9
13 9
24
80
6 12 5
81
9
5 13
82 16
4 5
SUMMARY OF STUDENT'S DISSONANCE
( C o n tin u e d )
114
SCORES
P u b l i c JC
1 s t P r i v a t e C o l l . 2nd P r i v a t e C oll.
Did Not Did Not Did Not
R e tu r n R e tu r n e d R e tu r n R e tu r n e d R e tu r n R e tu r n e d
83
8 16 8
84 8 4 8
85 15
24 21
86 16 14
13
87
11
5 13
88 6 15
16
89
8 18 21
90
12
19
8
91 5
4 12
9 2 7 9
24
93 5
20 16
94 13 19 5
95
26 22
17
96 19
20 5
97
14
5 5
98
16 20
11
9 9
24 4 18
100 20
17
16
T o t a l 1 2 8 7
1 0 1
12 19
1 0 2 11 17
103
20 17
104 17
21
105 9
13
106 10
16
107
6 20
108 4 14
109 7
5
115
SUMMARY OP STUDENT'S DISSONANCE SCORES
( C o n tin u e d )
P u b l i c JC 1 s t P r i v a t e C oll. 2nd P r i v a t e C o ll.
D id N o t D id N ot D id N ot
R e t u r n R e tu r n e d R e tu r n R e tu r n e d R e tu r n R e tu r n e d
110
19
10
111 11
13
112
19
16
113
21 4
l l 4 4 16
115 15 19
116 6 21
117
8 22
118 20 18
119
21 2
120 4 14
121
25 5
122 11 T o t a l 1609
123 3
124 12
125 21
126 4
127
18
128 8
129
8
130 6
131
10
132
9
133
10
134 12 ‘
135
10
136 20
137
4
116
SUMMARY OF STUDENT'S DISSONANCE SCORES
( C o n tin u e d )
P u b lic JC P u b lic JC
R e tu r n e d R etu rn ed
138 10 161 8
139
16 162 6
140 22
163 27
l 4 l 28 164 10
142
7 165 14
143 3
166 18
144
9 167
12
145 5
168 19
146
13
169
5
147 9
170
7
148 4
171 6
149
12 172
17
150 24
173
6
151 15
174
23
152 11
175
4
153
10 176 22
154
5 177 19
155 5
178 26
156
5 179
16
157 3
180 21
158 8 181
17
159
11 182 20
160
7 183 7
T o t a l
1 9 9 1
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University of Southern California Dissertations and Theses
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Asset Metadata
Creator
Johnson, Bethel Wyckliffe (author)
Core Title
The Decision Process In College Attendance And Cognitive Dissonance
Contributor
Digitized by ProQuest
(provenance)
Degree
Doctor of Philosophy
Degree Program
Education
Publisher
University of Southern California
(original),
University of Southern California. Libraries
(digital)
Tag
education, higher,OAI-PMH Harvest
Language
English
Advisor
Pullias, Earl Vivon (
committee chair
), Himstreet, William C. (
committee member
), Peter, Laurence J. (
committee member
)
Permanent Link (DOI)
https://doi.org/10.25549/usctheses-c18-426654
Unique identifier
UC11361259
Identifier
7025039.pdf (filename),usctheses-c18-426654 (legacy record id)
Legacy Identifier
7025039.pdf
Dmrecord
426654
Document Type
Dissertation
Rights
Johnson, Bethel Wyckliffe
Type
texts
Source
University of Southern California
(contributing entity),
University of Southern California Dissertations and Theses
(collection)
Access Conditions
The author retains rights to his/her dissertation, thesis or other graduate work according to U.S. copyright law. Electronic access is being provided by the USC Libraries in agreement with the au...
Repository Name
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Repository Location
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Tags
education, higher