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S.T.P.: A Simulation Of Treatment Processes

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S.T.P.: A Simulation Of Treatment Processes

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Content S .T .P .; A SIMULATION OP TREATMENT PROCESSES by S te v e n G lenn lu b e c k A D is s e r ta tio n P re s e n te d to th e FACULTY OP THE GRADUATE SCHOOL UNIVERSITY OP SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA In P a r t i a l F u lf illm e n t o f th e R eq u irem en ts f o r th e D egree DOCTOR OP PHILOSOPHY (S o c io lo g y ) Januaiy 1970 UNIVERSITY O F SO U T H E R N CALIFORNIA THE GRADUATE SCHOOL UNIVERSITY PARK LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA S 0 0 0 7 This dissertation, written by ...................... under the direction of /zis—- Dissertation Com mittee, and approved by all its members, has been presented to and accepted by The Gradu ate School, in partial fulfillment of require ments of the degree of D O C T O R OF P H I L O S O P H Y J anuary 1970 D ate.............. »N COM' PR EFA C E T h is s tu d y r e p r e s e n te d an a tte m p t to d e v e lo p a co m p u ter s im u la tio n o f two e o r r e c - t i o n a l program s f o r p e r s i s t e n t ju v e n ile law b r e a k e r s . C om prehensive d a ta w ere c o l l e c t e d from 236 d e lin q u e n ts who were random ly a s s ig n e d to one o f two v exy d i f f e r e n t tre a tm e n t p ro g ra m s. R e c e n t c o r r e c t i o n a l and c r im in o lo g ic a l th e o ry an d s te p w is e m u ltip le r e g r e s s io n te c h n iq u e s w ere com bined to c o n s tr u c t d e t a i l e d m odels o f b o th p ro g ra m s. The m odels w ere th e n u s e d a s th e b a s i s f o r c o n s tr u c tin g a co m p u ter s im u la tio n o f th e p ro g ram s. M a n ip u la tio n s o f th e m odels su g g e s te d t h a t f u tu r e s im u la tio n s tu d i e s i n t h i s a r e a c o u ld g r e a t l y im prove th e e f f i c i e n c y o f o u r p r e s e n t c o r r e c t i o n a l ey stem s and c o u ld advance th e developm ent o f c r im in o lo g ic a l th e o r y . ii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I am d e e p ly g r a t e f u l to LaMar T . Empey t f o r h i s s p o n so rsh ip and g u id an ce and f o r p ro v id in g me w ith many e x c e lle n t o p p o r tu n itie s f o r r e s e a r c h i n th e a r e a o f d e lin q u e n c y in te r v e n t i o n . I wi'sh a ls o to th an k W illiam Y ee, S a n fo rd L afcovitz, Herman T u rk , V em B en g sto n , and W illiam L arso n f o r t h e i r a s s is ta n c e and com m ents i n th e developm ent o f t h i s s tu d y . --S .G .L . iii TABLE OP CONTENTS PREPACE Page i i A CK N O W LED G M EN TS i i i C h ap ter I . INTRODUCTION 1 The C o r r e c tio n a l P rogram s: O rg a n iz a tio n and R esearch D esign In p u t R esearch P ro c e ss R e sea rc h Outcome R esearch Model C o n s tru c tio n : A B r ie f D isc u ssio n S im u la tio n : A B r ie f D is c u ss io n Types o f S im u la tio n System O p tim iz a tio n R e l i a b i l i t y o f th e S im u late C on clu sio n I I . DESCRIPTION OP THE SYSTEMS TO BE SIMULATED . . k6 The S ilv e r la k e Program The Boys' R ep u b lic Program Summary I I I . RESEARCH DESIGN....................................................................... 6 l O v e ra ll R esearch Model P o p u la tio n and Sample S e le c tio n Random A ssignm ent and I n te r n a l V a lid ity M easurem ent D esign In p u t M easures O ffense S c a le s P e e r Commitment S c a le s Background S c a le s P e r s o n a lity C h a r a c te r is tic s iv Chapter P ro c e ss M easures C r i t i c a l I n c id e n ts S o c io m e tric S ta n d in g G rades i n S chool Outcome M easures Runaways T e rm in a tio n le n g th o f Time i n Program B ec id iv ism le n g th o f Time b e fo re B e c id iv ism Summary IV . DEVE10PMENT OP THE M O D E IS .................. . M u ltip le l i n e a r B e g re ssio n S e le c tin g th e B e st B e g re s sio n Model D evelopm ent o f th e B e g re ssio n M odels V. THE SIMU1ATI0N....................................................................... R e l i a b i l i t y and V a lid ity o f th e S im u la tio n O p tim iz a tio n o f System Outcomes S im u la tio n o f T h e o re tic a l Types Type 1 Type 2 Type 3 Type 4 - Type 5 Type 6 Summary V I. SU M M A R Y AND IMP1ICATI0NS................................................ APPENDIXES . ..................................................................................... A ppendix A. S c a lin g ......................................................... D evelopm ent o f O ffense S c a le s D evelopm ent o f P e e r I d e n t i f i c a t i o n S c a le s R e s c a lin g Chapter Page Developm ent o f Background S c a le s A ppendix B. The B e g re s sio n M o d e ls ........................... 187 A ppendix C. The Computer Program f o r th e S im u la tio n . ............................. 206 BIBLIOGBAPHY............................................................................................... 215 vi LIST 01* TABLES Table Page 1 . C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f th e S ilv e r la k e Program . . . 55 2 . C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f th e Boys R e p u b lic P rogram . • 59 3 . Types o f B e h a v io r In c lu d e d i n O ffen se S c a le s . • 82 *+. O ffen se S e rio u s n e s s J u d g m e n ts ....................................... 85 5 . Group Outcomes from th e S im u la te ........................................119 6 . T e s ts o f S ig n if ic a n c e betw een S im u la te d C o n tro l Group Outcomes and S im u la ted E x p e rim e n ta l Group Outcom es: An A ssessm ent o f R e l i a b i l i t y 123 7 . T e s ts o f S ig n if ic a n c e betw een S im u la te d Program Outcomes and A c tu a l Program Outcom es: An A ssessm ent o f V a l i d i t y ..........................................................126 8 . C om parison o f A c tu a l Program R e le a se R a te s o f E x p e rim e n ta ls w ith S im u la te d C o n tro l Program R a t e s .............................................. 129 9 . C om parison o f A c tu a l E x p e rim e n ta l Group R e c id i vism w ith S im u la te d P erform ance i n th e Con t r o l P rogram ................................................................................. 129 10. Com parison o f A c tu a l E x p e rim e n ta l Group R e c id i vism w ith S im u la te d P erform ance i n th e Con t r o l P rogram . ..................................... 130 11. Com parison o f A c tu a l Program R e le a se R a te s o f E x p e rim e n ta ls w ith S im u lated C o n tro l Program R a t e s ............................................................................................... 135 1 2 . Com parison o f th e A c tu a l Program R e le a se s o f E x p e rim e n ta ls w ith T h e ir S im u la te d P e r f o r m ances i n th e C o n tro l P r o g r a m .......................................135 1 3 . Com parison o f A c tu a l C o n tro l Group R e c id iv ism w ith S im u la te d P erform ance i n th e C o n tro l P r o g r a m ...........................................................................................136 vii T able Page 14-. D e f in itio n o f T h e o r e tic a l Types .................................. 14-2 1 5 . S im u la tio n o f T h e o r e tic a l Types .................................. ikk- 1 6 . Number o f Boys w ith O ffen se on T h e ir R ecord One o r More Times .............................................................. 163 1 7 . Number o f Boys w ith O ffen se on T h e ir R ecord One o r More Times .............................................................. 165 1 8 . R o ta te d F a c to r M a trix : O ffen se M easu res. . . . 167 1 9 . F a c to r s and T h e ir L o a d in g s: O ffen se M easures . 169 2 0 . G uttm an-Type S c a le s B ased on O ffen se D ata . . . 171 2 1 . R o ta te d F a c to r M a trix : P e e r I d e n t i f i c a t i o n M easu res. . . . ................................................................... 173 2 2 . F a c to r s and T h e ir L o a d in g s: P e e r I d e n t i f i c a t i o n M easures .........................................................i . . 176 23 . S c a lin g A tte m p ts: P e e r I d e n t i f i c a t i o n M easu res................................................................................ . 178 2k. R e s c a lin g : P e e r I d e n t i f i c a t i o n M easu res. . • . 179 2 5 . R o ta te d F a c to r M a trix : B ackground M easures • . 181 2 6 . D e s c rip tio n o f F a c to r s : Background M easu res. • 183 2 7 . D e s c rip tio n o f Background M easu res. . . . . . . 186 . o o C M P r e d ic tio n o f S o c io m e tric S ta n d in g from In p u t M easu res: E x p e rim e n ta l Group ................................. 188 2 9 . P r e d ic tio n o f C r i t i c a l I n c id e n ts from In p u t M easu res: E x p e rim e n ta l Group .................................. 189 3 0 . P r e d ic tio n o f S chool G rades from In p u t M easures: E x p e rim e n ta l G roup............................................................. 190 3 1 . P r e d ic tio n o f S chool G rades from In p u t M easures: C o n tro l Group . . . . .................................................... 191 32. P r e d ic tio n o f Runaways U sing In p u t and P ro c e ss M easures: E x p e rim e n ta l Group . . . . . . . . 192 viii Table Page 33* P r e d ic tio n o f Runaways U sing I n p u t and P ro c e ss M easures: C o n tro l Group . . . . . . . . . . 193 3 ^ . P r e d ic tio n o f F a ilu r e U sing In p u t and P ro c e ss M easures: E x p e rim e n ta l G roup................................. 19^ 3 5 . P r e d ic tio n o f F a ilu r e U sing In p u t and P ro c e ss M easures: C o n tro l Group ........................................... 195 3 6 . P r e d ic tio n o f Length, o f S tay i n T reatm en t U sing In p u t and P ro c e ss M easu res: C o n tro l Group S u c c e s s fu l G ra d u a te . ................................. 196 3 7 . P r e d ic tio n o f L en g th o f S ta y i n T reatm en t U sing In p u t and P ro c e ss M easu res: C o n tro l Group F a ilu r e s and Runaw ays. . . . . . . . . 197 3 8 . P r e d ic tio n o f L ength o f S ta y i n T reatm en t U sing In p u t and P ro c e ss M easures: E x p e rim e n ta l Group S u c c e s s fu l G ra d u a te s. . • 198 3 9 . P r e d ic tio n o f L en g th o f S tay i n T reatm en t U sin g In p u t and P ro c e ss M easu res: E x p e rim e n ta l Group F a ilu r e s and Runaways . • 199 **0. P r e d ic tio n o f R e c id iv ism U sing In p u t and P ro c e ss M easu res: C o n tro l Group S u c c e s sfu l G ra d u a te s ................................................................................. 200 J+l. P r e d ic tio n o f R e c id iv ism U sing In p u t and P ro c e ss M easu res: C o n tro l Group F a ilu r e s and R u n a w a y s....................................................................... 201 k-2. P r e d ic tio n o f R e c id iv ism U sing In p u t and P ro c e ss M easu res: E x p e rim e n ta l Group S u c c e s s fu l G rad u ates .................................................... 202 ^ 3 . P r e d ic tio n o f R e c id iv ism U sing In p u t and P ro c e s s M easu res: E x p e rim e n ta l Group F a ilu r e s and Runaw ays.................................................... 203 M f. P r e d ic tio n o f L en g th o f Time b e fo re F i r s t R e c id iv ism : E x p e rim e n ta l Group R e c id i v i s t s . 20*f b5. P r e d ic tio n o f L en g th o f Time b e f o re R e c id iv ism U sing In p u t and P ro c e ss M easu res: C o n tro l Group R e c i d i v i s t s . ..................................... 205 ix LIST OP FIGURES Figure Page 1 . E x p e rim e n ta l D e s i g n ............................................................ 7 2 . Types o f D ata C o l l e c t e d ................................................... 13 3* Way i n Which th e D ata Can Be U sed to A nalyze S e q u e n tia l C hains o f R e la tio n s h ip s from In p u t th ro u g h P ro c e ss and Up to F in a l Outcome . . . 14- 4 . The C au sal S e q u e n c e ............................................................. 20 5 . B a sic M odels to he U sed I n i t i a l l y ........................... 29 6 . S im u la tio n Flow C h a r t ........................................................ 35 7 . Components o f th e R esearch D e s i g n ............................ 97 8 . Types o f R e s u lts and C om parisons In v o lv e d i n A s se s sin g th e R e l i a b i l i t y and V a lid ity o f th e S im u la tio n ....................................................................... 118 CHAPTER I INTRODUCTION' The m ajo r o b je c tiv e s o f t h i s d is s e r ta tio n , a r e two** fo ld s (1 ) to c r e a te a s e r i e s o f m odels by w hich to r e p l i c a te th e tre a tm e n t p r o c e s s e s and outcom es o f two c o r r e c t i o n a l program s f o r ju v e n ile d e lin q u e n ts ; and (2 ) to u s e th e s e m odels i n th e c o n s tr u c tio n and im p le m e n ta tio n o f a co m p u ter s im u la tio n . I f th e s e g o a ls a r e a cc o m p lish e d , t h i s s tu d y c o u ld make a c o n tr ib u tio n b o th to th e a c q u i s it i o n o f s c i e n t i f i c know ledge and to th e a r e a o f d e lin q u e n c y c o n tr o l. The p u rp o se o f t h i s c h a p te r i s to o u tlin e b r i e f l y th e c o r r e c t i o n a l sy stem s u n d e r s tu d y , th e ty p e o f r e s e a r c h d e s ig n em ployed to stu d y them , th e m eaning o f th e term s "m odel" and " s im u la te ," and th e -types o f m odels and ty p e o f s im u la te to be d ev elo p ed f o r t h i s d i s s e r t a t i o n . I n o r d e r to acco m p lish t h i s p u rp o se , t h i s c h a p te r w i l l be I p r e s e n te d i n th r e e a r e a s . F i r s t , a b r i e f d is c u s s io n o f th e c o r r e c t i o n a l p ro g ra m s, in c lu d in g t h e i r o r g a n iz a tio n a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s and th e r e s e a r c h d e s ig n u se d to exam ine them , w i l l be p r e s e n te d . Some f a m i l i a r i t y w ith th e n a tu r e o f th e program s and th e r e s e a r c h d e s ig n i s r e q u i s i t e to u n d e rs ta n d in g th e p ro p o sed m o d e l-b u ild in g and s im u la tio n o f 1 2 t h i s s tu d y . Second) th e m eanings o f th e term "m odel" and i th e ty p e o f m odels to be d ev elo p ed i n t h i s stu d y w i l l be j b r i e f l y re v ie w e d . T h ird ) th e n a tu r e o f s im u la tio n and th e m anner i n w hich th e m odels w i l l be u s e d to s im u la te th e c o r r e c t i o n a l program s w i l l be d is c u s s e d . The C o r r e c tio n a l P ro g ram s: O rg a n iz a tio n and B e se a rc h D esign T h is stu d y w i l l be c e n te r e d aro u n d th e e x a m in a tio n o f two tre a tm e n t program s f o r ju v e n ile d e lin q u e n ts : Boys R ep u b lic and th e S ilv e r la k e E x p e rim e n t. B oth program s a re p a r t o f a th r e e - y e a r r e s e a r c h p r o j e c t i n c o r r e c t i o n a l 1 e x p e rim e n ta tio n . Boys R ep u b lic i s a l a r g e ) p r i v a t e ) c o r r e c t i o n a l o r g a n iz a tio n f o r d e lin q u e n t b o y s . A lth o u g h th e program o p e r a te s w ith few p h y s ic a l r e s t r a i n t s , i t i s s e l f - j c o n ta in e d and i n a r e l a t i v e l y i s o l a t e d , r u r a l a r e a . I t i s a t o t a l i n s t i t u t i o n i n a n "open" s e t t i n g . The S ilv e r la k e {E xperim ent i s a s m a ll, e x p e rim e n ta l program lo c a te d i n a 1 ! r e s i d e n t i a l a r e a o f Los A n g e le s. T h is program o p e r a te s I w ith o u t p h y s ic a l r e s t r a i n t s and h a s c lo s e t i e s w ith f a m i l i a l , e d u c a tio n a l, and o th e r community i n s t i t u t i o n s . The s u b je c ts in v o lv e d i n t h i s stu d y w ere random ly a s s ig n e d to e i t h e r o f th e two p ro g ram s. The o r g a n iz a tio n a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s and p h y s ic a l j l o c a t i o n s o f th e two program s a re w id e ly d i f f e r e n t . Boys I p o r d e t a i l s s e e LaMar T . Empey, S tev e n G. L ubeck, and George E . Newland (1 9 6 9 ). R ep u b lic i s s p a t i a l l y i s o l a t e d from th e com m unity; i t i s r e l a t i v e l y s e l f - s u s t a i n i n g w ith i t s own fa rm , sc h o o l and work; program and w ith i t s own s t a f f o f t e a c h e r s , c o u n s e lo rs m e d ic a l p e r s o n n e l, farm and d aix y w o rk e rs , h o u se m o th e rs, m ain te n a n ce p e rs o n n e l and a d m in is tr a tiv e s t a f f . The p ro gram h o u se s a maximum o f 125 hoys f o r whom lo n g -te rm , m a tu r a tio n a l, e d u c a tio n a l and work o b je c tiv e s a re s e t . As a c o n se q u e n c e , th e a v e ra g e le n g th o f s ta y i s r e l a t i v e l y lo n g ; f o u r te e n m o n th s. Some boys s ta y a s lo n g a s two y e a r s . U n til vexy r e c e n t l y , th e program h a s been con d u c te d l a r g e l y on an in d iv id u a liz e d b a s i s , w ith a concen t r a t i o n upon th e p e r s o n a l r e l a t i o n s betw een boys and s t a f f . S i l v e r l a k e , by c o n t r a s t , i s h o u sed i n a r e s i d e n t i a l a r e a o f Los A n g e le s. O b je c tiv e s c o n c e n tr a te upon m a in ta in in g t i e s w ith th e com m unity and r e tu r n in g boys to r e g u la r p u r s u i t s a s soon a s p o s s i b l e . C o n se q u e n tly , no more th a n tw en ty b o y s a re a s s ig n e d a t any one tim e ; th e y a re r e q u ir e d to a tte n d th e n eig h b o rh o o d h ig h s c h o o l; and m ost spend each w eekend a t home o r w ith some f r ie n d o r r e l a t i v e . T here i s an em p h asis upon g ro u p p ro b le m -s o lv in g i n w hich boys s h a re w ith s t a f f i n ex am in in g i s s u e s , m aking im p o rta n t d e c is io n s and conductixig th e b u s in e s s o f th e r e s id e n c e . As a c o n se q u en ce , th e num ber o f s t a f f members i s d e l i b e r a t e l y k e p t s m a ll, c o m p risin g two f u l l - t i m e c o u n s e lo rs and a p a r t- tim e w ork s u p e r v is o r , t u t o r and c o o k . The a v e ra g e le n g th o f k s ta y i n t h i s program i s s ix m onths and i s d i c t a t e d i n p a r t by th e n e c e s s i t y to c o o rd in a te le n g th o f s ta y w ith th e 1 academ ic s e m e ste r o f th e s c h o o l. The t h e o r e t i c a l r a t i o n a l e upon w hich th e two t r e a t m ent p ro g ram s a r e b a se d w i l l r e c e iv e d e t a i l e d d is c u s s io n i n i a s e p a r a te c h a p te r o f t h i s d i s s e r t a t i o n . At t h i s p o in t i t i s im p o rta n t to p o in t o u t t h a t b o th program s o p e ra te on th e b a s is o f r a t h e r d i f f e r e n t assu m p tio n s a b o u t d e lin q u e n ts . Boys R e p u b lic i s b ased on a more t r a d i t i o n a l ap p ro ach to ju v e n ile c o r r e c t i o n s . C o n c e n tra tio n i s upon in d iv id u a liz e d c o u n s e lin g ^ ach iev em en t i n sch o o l} work i n shops and on th e farm } and p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n a boy governm ent sy stem . E f f o r t s a r e made to te a c h th e boys in d iv id u a l r e s p o n s ib ilily j and c itiz e n s h ip } o f w hich} i t i s assum ed} d e lin q u e n t boys a r e i n n e e d . The r a t i o n a l e b eh in d Boys R ep u b lic w ould p e rh a p s b e s t be c h a r a c te r iz e d a s a "common se n se " ap p ro ac h to tr e a tm e n t. I t does n o t stem d i r e c t l y from b e h a v io ra l s c ie n c e th e o ry o r f a c t} b u t in s te a d seem s to r e f l e c t a g e n e r a l " h e lp " e t h i c w h ich s t r e s s e s th e im p o rtan ce o f i n s t i l l i n g i n d e lin q u e n ts a sen se o f r e s p o n s i b il i t y } m a tu r i t y } and a b i l i t y to a c h ie v e i n s c h o o l. The S ilv e r la k e E xperim ent} on th e o th e r hand} i s b a se d on a much more e la b o r a te } t h e o r e t i c a l r a t i o n a l e , lo n g b e fo re th e e x p e rim e n ta l program was s e t u p y a s e r i e s o f th r e e s te p s were ta k e n , f i r s t } u s in g an a x io m a tic m o d el, a th e o ry o f d e lin q u e n c y c a u s a tio n was c r e a t e d . The c r e a t i o n o f th e th e o ry was b ased on c u r r e n t e m p iric a l f in d in g s and th e o ry i n th e a r e a o f d e lin q u e n c y . S econd, th e a x io m a tic c a u s a tio n th e o r y was u s e d to p in p o in t th e ty p e o f c a u s a l v a r i a b l e s t h a t w ould n ee d to be d e a l t w ith i n an e f f e c t i v e i n te r v e n tio n s t r a t e g y . T h ir d , a f t e r th e r e l e v a n t c a u s a l f a c t o r s had been i s o l a t e d , an i n t e r v e n ti o n s tr a t e g y was d e sig n e d and im plem ented to d e a l w ith them . A d e t a i l e d a c c o u n t o f th e c a u s a tio n th e o r y and i n t e r v e n ti o n s tr a te g y w hich u n d e r lie th e S ilv e r la k e E xp erim en t w i l l be 2 p r e s e n te d i n th e n e x t c h a p te r o f t h i s d i s s e r t a t i o n . The p o in t to be s tr e s s e d h e re i s t h a t S ilv e r la k e i s b a se d on a l o g i c a l l y d ev elo p ed and e x p l i c i t l y s t a t e d th e o r y . T h is p o in t w i l l have im p o rta n t im p lic a tio n s f o r th e developm ent o f th e s im u la te . The r e s e a r c h d e s ig n o f th e S ilv e r la k e E x p erim en t i s i d e a l l y s u ite d to a s im u la tio n and m o d e l-b u ild in g p ro b le m . D ata f o r t h i s stu d y w ere c o l l e c t e d from d e l i n - i i j q u e n ts who w ere random ly a s s ig n e d to e i t h e r o f th e two I p rogram m atic a l t e r n a t i v e s j u s t d is c u s s e d . The f i r s t sam ple (N=102) was co m p rised o f boys a s s ig n e d to Boys B e p u b lio , w hich was u s e d a s a c o n tr o l g ro u p . The second sam ple (N=135) c o n s is t s o f boys a s s ig n e d to th e S ilv e r la k e 2D e ta ils may a ls o be fo u n d i n a fo rth co m in g book by LaMar T . Empey, S te v e n G. Lubeck and George E . Hewland (1 9 6 9 ). E x p e rim e n t. Boys w ere a s s ig n e d random ly to b o th program s from a common p o p u la tio n o f p e r s i s t e n t o ffe n d e rs from Los A n g eles C ounty. T h is p o p u la tio n in c lu d e d m ale d e l i n q u e n ts ra n g in g i n age from f i f t e e n to e ig h te e n y e a r s . The m edian num ber o f o f f i c i a l l y - r e c o r d e d o f fe n s e s f o r b o th g ro u p s w as th r e e ; m ost o f th e boys w ere r e p e a t o f f e n d e r s . T here a re s e v e r a l re a s o n s w hy, i n l i g h t o f c u r r e n t c o r r e c t i o n a l tr e n d s , th e sam ples and program s u n d e r stu d y p ro v id e an i d e a l s i t u a t i o n f o r c o n s tr u c tin g a s im u la te . F i r s t , th e random a ssig n m e n t o f boys from a common p o p u la - i t i o n was u s e d a s a m eans o f c o n t r o ll i n g p o t e n t i a l sam ple b i a s e s , w hich i n tu r n m ig h t a f f e c t th e outcom es o f th e two p ro g ra m s. Com parisons o f b o th sam p les on a v a r i e t y o f v a r i a b l e s — a g e , r a c e , fa m ily b ac k g ro u n d , p e e r r e l a t i o n s , e d u c a tio n a l h is to x y , r e l i g i o n , o ffe n s e h is to x y , p r i o r i n s t i t u t i o n a l i z a t i o n , and p e r s o n a lity c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s — r e v e a le d v i r t u a l l y no s i g n i f i c a n t d i f f e r e n c e s . B ecause o f ra n d o m iz a tio n , b o th sam p les w ere v e ry s im i l a r a t th e tim e o f t h e i r a ssig n m e n t to e i t h e r p ro g ram . The b a s ic e x p e r i m e n ta l d e s ig n i s i l l u s t r a t e d i n F ig u re 1 . S econd, th e o r g a n iz a tio n a l s t r u c t u r e s and t h e o r e t i c a l r a t i o n a l e s o f Boys R ep u b lic and S ilv e r la k e w ere w id e ly d i f f e r e n t . Given th e e s s e n t i a l s i m i l a r i t y o f th e two sam p les a t th e tim e o f t h e i r random a s sig n m e n t, any d if f e r e n c e s betw een them i n term s o f program p erfo rm an ce RANDOMIZATION SILVERLAKE (Community Program ) ( 1 1 =1 4 1) BOYS EEPUBLIC ( I n s t i t u t i o n a l P rogram ) (N=121) LOS ANGELES COUNTY PEESISTENT DELINQUENTS BOYS REPUBLIC INMATES BETW EEN 16-18 YEARS OP ACE (N=262) MALE, PERSISTENT DELINQUENTS ASSIGNED BY . THE JUVENILE COURT TO. BOYS REPUBLIC P ig . 1 . —E x p e rim e n ta l d e s ig n 8 and b e h a v io r a f t e r r e l e a s e c o u ld be l o g i c a l l y a t t r i b u t e d to th e d i f f e r e n t n a tu r e o f th e program s t o w hich th e y w ere a s s ig n e d (s e e Lubeck and Empey, 1968) . I n i t i a l sam ple d i f f e r e n c e s w ould n o t a d e q u a te ly e x p la in d if f e r e n c e s i n program outcom e. The t h i r d re a s o n th e S ilv e r la k e E x p erim en t i s s u it e d to a s im u la tio n p roblem stem s from th e n a tu r e o f i t s m easurem ent d e s ig n . D ata c o l l e c t i o n w as d iv id e d i n t o th e th r e e s ta g e s o f I n p u t, P ro c e ss and Outcom e. In p u t d a ta w ere c o l l e c t e d from bo y s a t th e tim e o f t h e i r e n tra n c e to e i t h e r p ro g ram . They w ere u s e d to m easure th e p e r s o n a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f boys b o th f o r p r e d i c t iv e p u rp o s e s , and to a s s e s s th e e f f e c t i v e n e s s o f ra n d o m iz a tio n p r o c e d u re s . P ro c e s s d a ta w ere c o l l e c t e d to r e c o rd th e b o y s ' p e r f o r m ances and problem s w h ile a c t i v e l y p a r t i c i p a t i n g i n e i t h e r p ro g ra m . Outcome d a ta w ere u s e d to m easure th e e f f e c t i v e n e s s o f th e two p ro g ram s i n te rm s o f p e r s o n a l i t y and b e h a v io r a l c h a n g e s. A d e t a i l e d a c c o u n t o f th e ty p e s o f d a ta c o l l e c t e d i n e a c h o f th e s e th r e e a r e a s i s p r e s e n te d b elo w . In p u t B e se a rc h Many d i f f e r e n t ty p e s o f d a ta w ere c o l l e c t e d from a l l b oys upon t h e i r a d m itta n c e to e i t h e r p ro g ram . These d a ta may be d iv id e d i n t o f o u r c a t e g o r i e s . 9 1 . O ffense b a c k g ro u n d s. The c o m p le te , o f f i c i a l l y - re c o rd e d o ffe n s e b ack g ro u n d s o f boys w ere c o l l e c t e d from th r e e s o u rc e s : th e Los A ngeles County P ro b a tio n f i l e s ; th e Los A n g eles S h e r i f f 's D epartm ent C e n tra l J u v e n ile Index; and th e ju v e n ile f i l e s o f th e Los A n g eles County S u p e rio r C o u rt. A ll th re e s o u rc e s w ere com bined to g iv e an a c c u r a te p i c t u r e o f th e b o y s' o f f i c i a l d e lin q u e n t h i s t o r i e s . Prom th e s e r e c o r d s , d a ta w ere c o lle c te d on t h i r t y d i f f e r e n t o ffe n s e c a te g o r ie s and th e ty p e s o f fo rm al and in fo rm a l d i s p o s i t i o n s e n c o u n te re d . 2 . S o c ia l b a c k g ro u n d s. A q u e s tio n n a ir e was adm in i s t e r e d to b o th g ro u p s w hich e l i c i t e d s e v e r a l ite m s o f in fo r m a tio n p e r ta in in g to s e le c te d background and p e rs o n a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s . The g e n e r a l a r e a s c o v e re d by th e q u es tio n n a i r e in c lu d e d s o c ia l c l a s s o f p a r e n t s , e t h n i c i t y , a g e , fa m ily c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s and r e l a t i o n s h i p s , p a s t work behav i o r , p a s t sc h o o l b e h a v io r , a s p i r a t i o n s and s e lf - c o n c e p ts . 3 . P s y c h o lo g ic a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s . The J e s n e s s P s y c h o lo g ic a l In v en to ry * ( J e s n e s s , 1 9 6 8 ) d ev elo p ed on C a lif o r n ia Y outh A u th o rity W ards, was u s e d a s a means o f m ea su rin g th e p s y c h o lo g ic a l a t t r i b u t e s o f a l l b o y s. The In v e n to ry i s co m p rised o f te n s c a l e s , e a c h m easu rin g a d i f f e r e n t d im en sio n o f p e r s o n a l i t y . k . P e e r com m itm ent s c a l e s . A s e r i e s o f s ix te e n 10 ite m s w ere u s e d to m easure com m itm ents t o p e e r s i n a v a r i e t y o f s i t u a t i o n a l c o n te x ts , d e lin q u e n t and non d e lin q u e n t. These ite m s a re im p o rta n t, b o th b ecau se p e e r g ro u p in f lu e n c e i s c o n s id e re d to be a n im p o rta n t e t i o l o g i c a l f a c t o r i n p r e c i p i t a t i n g d e lin q u e n c y and becau se p r e lim in a ry a n a ly s e s (Empey and L ubeck, 1968) have s u g g e s te d t h a t th e y may be v e ry u s e f u l f o r p r e d i c t iv e and e x p la n a to r y p u rp o s e s . P ro c e s s B ese arch D ata w ere a ls o c o l l e c t e d on b o y s ' b e h a v io r i n e a c h o f th e p ro g ra m s. T h is in c lu d e d sc h o o l p e rfo rm a n c e , s o c io - m e tric r a n k in g s , d e lin q u e n t a c t s ( o f f i c i a l l y d e te c te d and u n d e te c te d ) com m itted w h ile i n th e p ro g ra m s, and ty p e o f r e l e a s e from th e program ( in c lu d in g ru n aw ay s, program f a i l u r e s who were d ro p p ed from tre a tm e n t and s u c c e s s f u l r e l e a s e s ) . I n a d d i t i o n , a s e r i e s o f q u e s tio n n a ir e s w ere adm in i s t e r e d a t b o th th e e x p e rim e n ta l and c o n tr o l program s i n o r d e r to o b ta in th e p e r c e p tio n s o f b o th boys and s t a f f r e g a rd in g th e f u n c tio n in g and s t r u c t u r a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f t h e i r r e s p e c tiv e p ro g ra m s. The q u e s tio n n a ir e d a ta w i l l be u s e d i n t h i s d i s s e r t a t i o n to d e te rm in e , on an e m p iric a l b a s i s , how th e two p ro g ram s d i f f e r and th e e x te n t to w hich o r g a n iz a tio n a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s a re com m ensurate w ith th e 11 t h e o r e t i c a l a ssu m p tio n s w hich a re su p p o sed to u n d e r l ie e i t h e r program . Outcome B esea rc h Outcome. D ata w ere c o l l e c t e d from hoys b o th a t th e tim e o f t h e i r r e le a s e and su b se q u e n t t o t h e i r r e l e a s e . These outcom e d a ta may be d iv id e d i n t o th r e e g e n e r a l c a t e g o r ie s : 1 . Change i n d i c a t o r s . At b o th p ro g ram s, th e J e s n e s s P s y c h o lo g ic a l In v e n to ry and th e p e e r commitment in s tr u m e n ts w ere r e a d m in is te r e d to a l l boys who s u c c e s s f u l l y c o m p leted th e p ro g ra m s. T hus, change s c o re s w ere com puted on b o th o f th e s e in s tr u m e n ts . 2 . P rogram m atic outcom e. I n t h i s a r e a , in fo rm a t i o n was c o l l e c t e d on two b a s ic th in g s : (1 ) how lo n g e ach boy s ta y e d i n tre a tm e n t and (2 ) th e f i n a n c i a l c o s t o f tre a tm e n t p e r bo y . 3 . P o s t- r e le a s e outcom e. E v ery boy who e n te r e d tre a tm e n t was "fo llo w e d u p " th ro u g h o f f i c i a l f i l e s (men tio n e d e a r l i e r ) f o r a p e r io d o f one y e a r a f t e r h i s r e l e a s e . T hus, d a ta w ere c o l l e c t e d on w h e th e r a g iv e n boy r e c i d i v a te d , ty p e s o f r e c id iv is m , d i s p o s i t i o n s o f r e c id iv is m , th e le n g th o f tim e betw een r e l e a s e and r e c id iv is m , and w h e th e r th e r e was a d e c re a se d tim e i n t e r v a l betw een r e c i d i v i s t o f fe n s e s a s com pared to p a s t p a t t e r n s o f law v i o l a t i o n . In summazy, a l a r g e body o f d a ta h a s been c o l l e c t e d i2 i n th e th r e e s e q u e n tia l s ta g e s o f i n p u t , p ro c e s s and o u t come. T h is body o f d a ta i s i l l u s t r a t e d i n F ig u re 2 . The way i n w hich th e d a ta c an be u s e d to a n a ly z e s e q u e n tia l c h a in s o f r e l a t i o n s h i p s from i n p u t , th ro u g h p ro c e s s and up to f i n a l outcome i s shown i n F ig u re 3 . These d a ta p ro v id e an a n a l y t i c fram ew ork w hich seems w e ll s u it e d to m odel j b u ild in g and s im u la tio n .' Model C o n s tru c tio n : A B r ie f D isc u ssio n The term "m odel" i s g e n e ric and c o u ld encom pass a v a r i e t y o f d e f i n i t i o n s . F i r s t , i t sh o u ld be p o in te d o u t t h a t m o d e lin g , a s u s e d i n t h i s s tu d y , i s n o t in te n d e d to convey a n o rm a tiv e m ean in g . B rodbeck (1959*373) s a y s : "Model s h ip s a p p e a r f r e q u e n tly i n b o t t l e s ; m odel boys i n h eaven o n ly ." A m odel s h ip i s in te n d e d to r e p l i c a t e some th in g t h a t e x i s t s , w h ile a model boy h a s no d i r e c t e m p iric a l r e f e r e n t and r e p r e s e n ts n o rm a tiv e ag reem en t o f w hat a boy o u g h t to b e . T h is s tu d y w i l l n o t be co n cern ed w ith con s t r u c t i n g n o rm a tiv e m o d e ls, i . e . , how d e lin q u e n ts sh o u ld be re fo rm e d o r t r e a t e d . K aplan (1 9 6 ^ :2 6 3 ) d e f in e s n o n n o rm ativ e m odels i n th e fo llo w in g m anner: B ro ad ly s p e a k in g , we may say t h a t any sy stem A i s a m odel o f a sy stem B i f th e s tu d y o f A i s u s e f u l f o r th e u n d e rs ta n d in g o f B w ith o u t re g a rd to any d i r e c t o r i n d i r e c t c a u s a l c o n n e c tio n betw een A and B . . . . They re se m b le one a n o th e r i n form and n o t i n c o n te n t. In more p r e c is e tex m s, A may be s a id to be a m odel o f B INPUT O ffen se R ecords Socioeconom ic S ta tu s E th n ic ity P e e r Commitment Age P s y c h o lo g ic a l In d ic e s S chool S c a le s F am ily S c a le s Work S c a le s A s p ir a tio n S c a le s S e lf-C o n c e p t S c a le s PROCESS Program T e rm in a tio n s ♦School P erform ance ♦ S o c io m e tric S cale* * ♦Program D elinquency** O U TC O M E BELEASE ♦ P s y c h o lo g ic a l Change ♦ P eer Commitment Change C ost o f T reatm en t Time i n T reatm en t POST-RELEASE R e c id iv ism R a te s Types o f R e c id iv ism D is p o s itio n o f R e c id iv ism Time b e fo re R e c id iv ism F ig . 2 . — TJypes o f d a ta c o l l e c t e d ♦ In co m p lete d a ta ♦♦ -C ollected a t e x p e rim e n ta l program o n ly Vf INPUT A N D PEQCESS T O G E T H E E O U T C O M E INPUT P ig . 3 . — Way i n w hich th e d a ta c an he u s e d to a n a ly z e s e q u e n tia l c h a in s o f r e l a t i o n s h i p s from in p u t th ro u g h p ro c e s s and u p to f i n a l outcom e. 15 to th e e x te n t t h a t th e y a r e iso m o rp h s o f one a n o th e r* Isom orphism i s a term c o n n o tin g a s i m i l a r i t y betw een th e model and w hat i t i s r e p r e s e n tin g . A ccording to B rodbeek (1 9 5 9 s3 7 * 0 , two c o n d itio n s m ust be m et b e fo re a m odel can be s a id to be iso m o rp h ic : l i r s t , th e r e m ust be a o n e -to -o n e c o rre sp o n d en c e b etw een th e e le m e n ts o f th e m odel and o f th e th in g o f w hich i t i s a m o d el. . . . S econd, c e r t a i n r e l a t i o n s (b etw een th e e le m e n ts ) a r e p r e s e rv e d . T h u s, th e term m odel, ev en i n th e n o n n o rm a tiv e j s e n s e , i s v e ry en co m p assin g . T h is i s e v id e n c e d by th e b ro ad v a r i e t y o f m odels t h a t have b een u s e d a t one tim e o r 3 a n o th e r i n th e s o c ia l s c ie n c e s o v e r th e p a s t c e n tu r y . A co m p lete l i s t o f ty p e s o f m odels w ould be to o lo n g to p r e s e n t h e r e , b u t w ould in c lu d e v a r io u s ty p e s o f o rg a n ism ic j | m o d els, (P a rso n s 19^9 and 1951) in c lu d in g s t r u c t u r a l - j f u n c tio n a l and h o m e o s ta tic a n a lo g u e s; e v o lu tio n a ry m odels (S p en cer 1873; Sum ner, 1 9 5 9 ); c o n f l i c t m odels (M arx, 1930; k C o se r, 1 9 5 6 ); p h y s ic a l s c ie n c e m odels; s t a t i s t i c a l and m a th e m a tic a l m odels (Sim on, 1957); d ra m a tu rg ic a l m odels (G offm an, 1959); exchange m odels (Homans, 1961; B la u , 196*+); ^S ee D avid W ilie r (1967* C h a p te r 3 )» and A lex ■Dnkeles (1 9 6 ^ , C h ap ter 3 ) . B oth r e f e r e n c e s p ro v id e e x c e l l e n t d is c u s s io n s o f th e ty p e s o f m odels u s e d d u rin g th e developm ent o f th e s o c ia l s c ie n c e s , k See W illiam B . C at to n , J r . (1 9 6 6 ) f o r an exam ple o f co n tem p o rary u s e o f a p h y s ic a l s c ie n c e m odel and a good d is c u s s io n o f p a s t u s a g e s i n s o c io lo g y . 16 b a la n c e m odels (H e id e r, 1958; Newcomb, 1 9 6 1 ), and so f o r t h . I t i s beyond th e scope o f t h i s d i s s e r t a t i o n to exam ine e a ch o f th e s e v a r io u s ty p e s o f m odels i n d e t a i l , b u t th e p o in t j to be made i s t h a t th e r e a re s e v e r a l p o s s ib le ways i n w hich s o c i a l phenomena have b een and c o u ld be r e p r e s e n te d . T h is stu d y w i l l be co n cern ed w ith d e v e lo p in g a s t a t i s t i c a l m odel. B u t, b e fo re t h i s ( o r any o th e r ) a tte m p t j a t m odel c o n s tr u c tio n c o u ld b e g in , i t w ould f i r s t be n e c e s s a ry to e s t a b l i s h a fram e o f r e fe r e n c e to w ard th e phenomena u n d e r i n v e s t i g a t i o n , and to s e l e c t c o n c e p ts w hich a r e a p p r o p r ia te t o , and hav e m eaning w ith in t h i s fram ew ork. The fram e o f r e f e r e n c e o f t h i s d i s s e r t a t i o n i s shaped by th e f a c t t h a t i t w i l l be p r im a r ily co n ce rn ed w ith th e c o r r e c t i o n o r r e fo r m a tio n o f ju v e n ile d e lin q u e n ts and n o t n e c e s s a r i l y w ith f a c t o r s w hich i n i t i a l l y p re v e n t o r g iv e im p e tu s to d e lin q u e n t a c t s o r s u b c u ltu r e s . The s e le c t i o n o f c o n c e p ts f o r c o n s tr u c tin g a c o r r e c t i o n a l m o d el, t h e r e f o r e , i s lim ite d i n a t l e a s t two m ajo r r e s p e c t s . F i r s t , th e r e h a s been a p a u c ity o f s y s te m a tic a lly d e v e lo p e d 5 t h e o r ie s o r m odels i n th e a r e a o f c o r r e c t i o n s . A t th e same tim e , th e r e have b een num erous s tu d i e s co n cern ed s o le l y w ith th e p r e d ic tio n o f b e h a v io r b o th d u rin g and a f t e r p r o b a tio n , i n c a r c e r a ti o n and p a r o l e . A rev ie w o f ^F or exam ples o f p re lim in a ry a tte m p ts a t su ch d e v e lo p m e n t, see D avid S t r e e t , R o b e rt D. V in te r and C h a rle s Perrow (1 9 6 6 ) and C la re n c e S ch rag (1 9 6 1 ). 17 th e s e p r e d i c t io n s tu d ie s r e v e a ls a lo n g l i s t o f v a r i a b l e s , in c lu d in g fa m ily d is o r g a n iz a tio n , m a tu r ity l e v e l s and p s y c h o lo g ic a l a d ju stm e n t (G ould and B e v e rly , 1963; j H o p k in so n , 1963; Weeks, 1958; F ra n k s , 1956; F ly n n , 1 9 5 6 ), j p h y s ic a l a p p earan ce ( C o r s in i, 1959)? e d u c a tio n (G ould and { | B e v e rly , 1963)? age (H opkinson, 1963; Thompson and Adams, j 1963)? em ploym ent (G la s e r and B ic e , 1 9 6 1 ), le n g th o f s ta y i n tre a tm e n t (B e v e rly , 1962; Thompson and Adams, 1963; Ohlm, 1951; B ev erly and G uttm an, 1963; W eeks, 1 9 6 2 ), c r im i n a l r e c o rd (Thompson and Adams, 1 9 6 3 ), and a h o s t o f o th e r s t h a t have been u s e d i n c o n s tr u c tin g th e s e p r e d ic tiv e d e v ic e s . T h u s, i f one w ere to exam ine th e l i t e r a t u r e on c o r r e c t i o n s he would n o t s u f f e r from a la c k o f c a n d id a te - v a r i a b l e s f o r in c lu s io n i n a m o d el. I n s te a d , i n th e ab sen ce o f w e ll-d e v e lo p e d t h e o r e t i c a l g u id e lin e s and m odels, he w ould s u f f e r from a p le th o r a o f a l t e r n a t i v e s . Such p ro b lem s a re r e f l e c t e d n o t o n ly i n th e v a r i e t y o f f a c t o r s and v a r i a b l e s w hich have been found r e l a t e d to d e lin q u e n c y , b u t a ls o i n th e v a r i e t y o f fram es o f r e f e r e n c e — s o c io lo g i c a l , p s y c h o lo g ic a l, b io - a n th r o p o lo g ic a l, p s y c h i a t r i c , e t c e t e r a — th ro u g h w hich th e o ffe n d e r can be view ed and h i s b e h a v io r e x p la in e d (M a c lv e r, 1 9 6 ^ :8 0 -8 7 ; Cohen, 1 9 6 6 ). T here have been a few r e c e n t and n o ta b le a tte m p ts to d e v e lo p ty p o lo g ie s t h a t have re le v a n c e to c o r r e c t i o n a l 18 6 s e t t in g s , but th ese stu d ie s are n o tic e a b ly la ck in g in em p irical support and usage and, a t the presen t sta g e o f i developm ent, seem only to add new c a te g o r ie s to the m u lti- j tud es o f a lte r n a tiv e s . A second lim ita tio n stems from the fa c t th a t most th e o r ie s o f ju v e n ile delinquency are concerned w ith the i e t io lo g ic a l fa c to r s th a t p r e c ip ita te delin qu en t a c ts . | Although th ese th e o r ie s are relev a n t to understanding why c e r ta in a d o lescen ts become d elin q u en t, and, perhaps, to p reven tin g th e ir delin qu en cy, th e ir a p p lic a tio n to tr e a t ment i s u n cle a r. To i ll u s t r a t e t h is p o in t, con sid er the stru ctu re o f the ca u sa tio n theory from which the in terv en tio n str a te g y o f the S ilv e r la k e Experiment was d eriv ed . I This theory w ill be d iscu ssed in g rea t d e t a il in a su bse- ! quent chapter o f t h is d is s e r ta tio n , and, th e r e fo r e , w i l l be! presen ted here only in a formal manner, w ithout much elab o r a tio n . The cau sation theory was con stru cted through the use o f an axiom atic form at, and i t s major p o stu la te s are as fo llo w s : P o stu la te I : Lower ascrib ed sta tu s r e s u lts in decreased achievem ent. P o stu la te I I : Decreased achievem ent r e s u lts in in creased s tr a in . &See Don C. Gibbons (1 9 6 5 ); Theodore N. Ferdinand (1 9 6 6 ); and Clarence Schrag (1 9 6 1 ). 19 P o s tu la te I I I : In c re a s e d s t r a i n r e s u l t s i n h ig h i d e n t i f i c a t i o n w ith d e lin q u e n t p e e r s . P o s tu la te IV : I d e n t i f i c a t i o n w ith d e lin q u e n t p e e rs r e s u l t s i n d e lin q u e n c y . Prom th e s e f o u r p o s t u l a t e s , th e fo llo w in g th eo rem s j j w ere d ed u ced : | Theorem I : Lower a s c r ib e d s t a t u s r e s u l t s i n s tr a i n .; (Deduced from P o s t u l a t e s I and I I . ) ! I Theorem I I : D ecreased ach iev em en t r e s u l t s i n id e n t i f i c a t i o n w ith d e lin q u e n t p e e r s . (Deduced from P o s tu la te s I I and I I I . ) Theorem I I I : I n c re a s e d s t r a i n r e s u l t s i n d e l i n q u en cy . (D educed from P o s tu la te s I I I and IV .) Theorem IV : Lower a s c r ib e d s t a t u s r e s u l t s i n id e n t i f i c a t i o n w ith d e lin q u e n t p e e r s . (D educed from P o s tu la te I| and Theorem I I . ) Theorem V: D ecreased ach iev em en t r e s u l t s i n d e l i n q u en cy . (D educed from P o s tu la te I I and Theorem I I I . ) Theorem V I: Lower a s c r ib e d s t a t u s r e s u l t s i n d e lin q u e n c y . (Deduced from P o s tu la te I and Theorem V .) The p o s tu l a t e s o f th e th e o ry t r a c e th e c a u s e s o f d e lin q u e n c y th ro u g h a s e r i e s o f s e q u e n tia l e v e n ts , s t a r t i n g w ith an a d o l e s c e n t 's a s c r ib e d p o s i t i o n i n th e s o c ia l sy stem , th ro u g h h i s r e s u l t i n g f a i l u r e s and d i s s a t i s f a c t i o n s w ith th e sy ste m , and u p to m a n if e s ta tio n s o f d e v ia n t b e h a v io r . An i l l u s t r a t i o n o f t h i s seq u en ce may be fo u n d i n f ig u r e 4 . 20 1 . LOW ER ASCRIBBJ) STATUS 2 . DECREASE I) ACHIEVEMENT 3 . INCREASED STRAIN if. HIGH IDENTIFICATION WITH DELINQUENT EEERS 5 . DELINQUENCY F ig • if .--T h e c a u s a l sequence 21 L e t u s assum e, th e n , t h a t th e c a u s a l sequence i n F ig u re h a s a h ig h am ount o f e m p iric a l and d e d u c tiv e v a lid i t y . What v a r i a b l e s , th e n , w ould be m ost r e le v a n t to th e c o n s tr u c tio n o f a m odel o r th e o ry f o r t r e a t i n g d e lin q u e n c y ? P o s tu la te IV and Theorem s I I I , V and VI e a ch r e l a t e th e j j in d iv id u a l v a r i a b l e s to d e lin q u e n c y and in d i c a t e th e m anner j i o f th e r e l a t i o n s h i p , b u t t h i s do es n o t h e lp to answ er th e | | q u e s tio n j u s t r a i s e d . C e rta in a s p e c ts o f th e c a u s a l seq u en ce a p p e a r to be u n a l t e r a b l e o r in a p p lic a b le a s f a r a s tr e a tm e n t g o a ls a re c o n c e rn e d . F o r ex am p le, th e f i r s t v a r i a b l e i n th e c a u s a l sequence i s s o c i a l c l a s s . B e se a rc h i n th e a r e a o f crim e and d e lin q u e n c y h a s c o n s is t e n t l y shown I i t h a t th e r e i s an in v e r s e r e l a t i o n s h i p betw een s o c ia l c l a s s ! 7 I and o f f i c i a l d e lin q u e n c y . T h is e m p ir ic a l g e n e r a l i z a t i o n j h a s p ro b a b ly had g r e a t e r in f lu e n c e on c u r r e n t t h e o r e t i c a l j a p p ro a c h e s to e x p la in in g d e lin q u e n c y th a n any o th e r s in g le f a c t o r . But w hat a re i t s im p lic a tio n s f o r tre a tm e n t? C e r ta in ly , i t i s im p o s s ib le to t o t a l l y a l t e r a p e r s o n 's a s c r ib e d s t a t u s i n s o c i e t y . U n less d r a s t i c e f f o r t s a t s o c ia l c o n tr o l w ere im p lem en ted , su ch a s c o n d itio n in g p eo p le to be s a t i s f i e d w ith t h e i r a s c r ib e d s o c ia l p o s i t i o n s , t h i s v a r i a b l e w ould be a v e ry d i f f i c u l t one to a t t a c k . This d o es n o t d e v a lu e th e s ig n if ic a n c e o f s o c i a l c l a s s i n ?See LaMar T . Empey (1967) and B ale G. Hardman (1 9 6 7 ) f o r a com prehensive rev iew o f r e s e a r c h and l i t e r a t u r e on t h i s t o p i c . 22 e x p la in in g th e em ergence o f d e lin q u e n c y , h u t s u g g e s ts t h a t i t s tr e a tm e n t im p lic a tio n s a re vexy m in im a l, ( a t l e a s t i n a s o c ie ty w here a n e g a l i t a r i a n e t h i c p r e v a i l s ) . I f th e c o n c e p t o f s o c ia l c l a s s i s a p o o r c a n d id a te f o r th e c o n s tr u c tio n o f a tre a tm e n t th e o r y o r m a n ip u la b le m o d el, w hat a b o u t th e seco n d p h ase o f th e c a u s a l se q u e n c e , o r d e c re a s e d ach iev em e n t? C o n sid e ra b le ev id e n c e i s b e in g am assed t h a t lo w e r c l a s s c h ild r e n a re a t a s e v e re econom ic and s o c i a l d isa d v a n ta g e when p la c e d i n e a r ly c o m p e titiv e s i t u a t i o n s (D e u tsc h , e t a l . . 1 9 6 7 ). The lo w e r c l a s s c h i l d who e n t e r s elem en tax y s c h o o l, d o es n o t have th e a d e q u a te back g ro u n d and m o tiv a tio n tow ard e d u c a tio n to com pete w ith c h i l d r e n o f h ig h e r s o c i a l c l a s s e s . As a r e s u l t , f r u s t r a - t i o n s and am b iv alen ce to w ard th e c o n v e n tio n a l sy stem b e g in a t an e a r l y a g e . I n s te a d o f im p ro v in g , e v id e n c e s u g g e s ts ! t h a t th e s i t u a t i o n w o rse n s w ith a " sn o w b a llin g " e f f e c t . Maxiy lo w e r c l a s s c h i l d r e n g e t f u r t h e r and f u r t h e r b e h in d a s tim e g o e s on and by th e tim e th e y re a c h h ig h s c h o o l, f r u s t r a t i o n s a re so in te n s e t h a t " d ro p -o u t" b e h a v io r, f e e l i n g s o f n e g a t i v i s t i c f a t a l i s m , and a n tag o n ism s tow ard th e con v e n tio n a l sy stem a re l i k e l y to o c c u r. T h is p a r t i c u l a r v a r i a b l e h a s c l e a r - c u t im p lic a tio n s f o r d e lin q u e n c y p rev en t i o n . I f d isa d v a n ta g e d c h ild r e n can be i d e n t i f i e d and h e lp e d a t an e a r ly age i n program s su ch a s "O p e ra tio n Head . S t a r t , " th e f r u s t r a t i o n s o f t h e i r i n a b i l i t y to com pete i n 23 c o n v e n tio n a l s e t t i n g s m ig h t be reduced* B ut a g a in , w hat a r e th e im p lic a tio n s o f t h i s f a c t o r f o r c o r r e c tio n s ? I f a lo w e r c l a s s a d o le s c e n t h a s e n c o u n te re d y e a r s o f r e p e a te d f a i l u r e and f r u s t r a t i o n , i s i t a t a l l u s e f u l to a tte m p t to r e t r a i n him and a tte m p t to p ro v id e him w ith le g itim a te a c h ie v e m e n ts and s a t i s f a c t i o n s by th e tim e he i s i n h i s j i mid*- o r l a t e - t e e n s ? C e r ta in ly a tte m p ts c o u ld be made to ! p ro v id e him w ith ach ie v em en ts b u t c o n s id e ra b le harm m ig h t a lr e a d y have been d o n e . He m ight a lr e a d y be d e r iv in g s a t i s f a c t i o n s from p a r t i c i p a t i n g i n d e lin q u e n t c o l l e c t i v i t i e s . j I n f a c t , i f one w ere to a n a ly z e F ig u re 4 , he w ould f in d t h a t th e c l o s e r a v a r i a b l e 's s p a t i a l and tem p o ra l p ro x im ity to d e lin q u e n c y , th e more a p p r o p r ia te w ould be i t s j r a t i o n a l e f o r in c lu s io n i n a tre a tm e n t m o d el. An h y p o th e ti c a l exam ple d e riv e d from "g erm -th eo ry " may p ro v id e an i l l u s t r a t i o n o f t h i s p o i n t . I f a p e rso n w ere p la c e d i n c o ld w e a th e r w ith o u t any c l o th in g o r s h e l t e r f o r a lo n g p e r io d o f tim e , he m ig h t become s u s c e p tib le to a v i r u s . I f he were to c a tc h th e v i r u s , he m ig h t th e n become s i c k . I f he becom es s i c k , he m ig h t th e n m a n ife s t th e symptoms o f th e p a r t i c u l a r d is e a s e he h ad c o n tr a c te d . T hus, we c o u ld tr a c e a s e r i e s o f i r r e v e r s i b l e , e t i o l o g i c a l e v e n ts up to a f i n a l and u n d e s ir e d outcom e. The p re v e n tiv e im p lic a tio n s o f t h i s c h a in o f e v e n ts a re o b v io u s: i f you w ant to p re v e n t th e s ic k n e s s , come i n o u t o f th e c o ld o r w ear some form o f warm 2 lf c o v e rin g when o u ts id e . B u t, i f symptoms o f s ic k n e s s hav e a lr e a d y o c c u r re d , w hat u t i l i t y w ould t h i s e t i o l o g i c a l c h a in o f e v e n ts have i n t r e a t i n g th e d is e a s e ? Could we l o g i c a l l y t r a c e b ack th e c h a in o f e v e n ts to th e f i r s t v a r ia b le and i | c o v e r o u r p a t i e n t i n warm c lo th in g i n o r d e r to " c u re " him ? ! I I t w ould be to o l a t e f o r t h a t . I n s t e a d , i t w ould be m o st j l o g i c a l t o t r a c e f u r t h e r u p th e c h a in o f e v e n ts and pay j j a t t e n t i o n to th e m ost im m ediate e t i o l o g i c a l f a c t o r s . W e c o u ld a tte m p t to k i l l th e germ , o r i f i t w ere to o l a t e f o r t h a t , we c o u ld a tte m p t to a l l e v i a t e th e d isc o m fo rt o f th e sym ptom s. ( I n u s in g t h i s a n a lo g y , I am n o t im p ly in g t h a t d e lin q u e n c y i s a d i s e a s e .) L e t u s r e t u r n f o r th e moment to F ig u re 1 . Even i f th e r e l a t i o n s h i p s betw een th e l i n k s i n th e c a u s a l seq u en ce ! w ere h i g h , th e pro b lem s in h e r e n t i n th e germ a n alo g y w ould be p r e s e n t . So i l l u s t r a t e t h i s , l e t u s assum e t h a t th e a b s o lu te v a lu e s o f th e c o r r e l a t i o n s betw een e a ch o f th e a d ja c e n t v a r i a b l e s i n o u r c h a in a re .7 0 . W hat, th e n , w ould |be th e s e p a r a te r e l a t i o n s h i p s o f e a c h o f th e c a u s a l v a r i - i a b le s to d e lin q u e n c y ? By assum ing t h a t th e c a u s a l m odel i s v a l i d , and by u t i l i z i n g th e a n a l y t i c a l te c h n iq u e s o f 8 B la lo c k (196*+) and Simon (1 9 5 7 ), we c o u ld e x p e c t th e Q She fo llo w in g a ssu m p tio n c o n c e rn in g th e p a r t i a l c o r r e l a t i o n s o f th e h y p o th e tic a l v a r i a b l e s w ould a ls o have t o be made i n o rd e r f o r th e e x p e c ta tio n s to be v a l i d : r l5 .2 3 1 f = o; r 25.3*f = 0 ; * 3 5 .^ = 0 . 25 fo llo w in g c o r r e la tio n between each v a r ia b le and delinquency.! *15 = ( r 1 2 )x (r 2 3 )x (r 3lf ) x ( rif5 ) = | (A scribed S tatu s and Delinquency) ( . 7 0 r = .2k r 25 = ( * 2 3 ) x ( * 3 ^ ) x ( ^ 5 ) (Achievement and D elinquency) ( .7 0 ) 3 = ,3k r35 = (r3^ )x (I1t5) (S tra in and D elinquency) ( .7 0 ) 2 = ,k9 = (*V5) (P eer I d e n tific a tio n and Delinquency) _ ( .7 0 ) 1 = .70 U sing t h is p a r tic u la r m odel, th en , i t would appear th a t as we move fu r th e r up the ca u sa l ch a in , the v a r ia b le s have a h igh er d ir e c t r e la tio n sh ip to delin qu en cy, and thus have more d ir e c t and lo g ic a l a p p lic a b ility to a treatm ent m odel. Even though a l l v a r ia b le s might play an eq u ally im portant part in the e t io lo g ic a l sequence, their a p p lic a b ility and relevan ce to the co n stru ctio n o f a treatm ent model i s not the same. T herefore, in s e le c tin g concep ts fo r use in the m odel, the th e o r e tic a l assum ptions which u n d erlie both the experim ental and c o n tro l programs w i l l be used as gu id e- 9 l i n e s . Techniques such as Stepw ise B egression w ill be used to h elp to is o la t e r elev a n t v a r ia b le s fo r in c lu sio n in the m odel. 9 See Norman R. D rap er and H a rry Sm ith (1967) and T ra v is H ir s c h i and Harman C. S e lv in (1 9 6 7 ) f o r a d is c u s s io n o f th e u t i l i t y o f t h i s te c h n iq u e i n d e lin q u e n c y r e s e a r c h . 26 The " c a u sa l-m o d e l” te c h n iq u e s d ev elo p ed by Simon and B la lo c k m ig h t a ls o be u s e d a s a f u r t h e r a id to a s s e s s in g i th e o r d e rin g among th e c o n c e p ts and v a r i a b l e s m easu red ) and th u s t h e i r re le v a n c e to th e c o n s tr u c tio n o f a tre a tm e n t m o d el. Of c o u r s e , an e n t i r e c h a p te r w i l l be d ev o ted to th e c o n s tr u c tio n o f th e m odel and th e r a t i o n a l e f o r c o n c e p t s e l e c t i o n . Even i f a s im u la te were b a sed on an o p tim a l m odel | w hich em ployed m e a n in g fu l c o n c e p ts and sy m b o ls, pro b lem s o f o p e r a t i o n a l iz a t io n w ould re m a in . Even th e b a s ic c o n c e p t "d e lin q u e n c y " h a s been d e fin e d and m easured i n many d i f f e r e n t ways ( S e l l i n and W olfgang, 196*+; E ric k s o n and Empey, 1963; S h o rt and Mye, 1962; S c o t t , 1956; C lark and T i f f t , - i 1 9 6 6 ). D i f f i c u l t i e s m ig h t be e n c o u n te re d i n a tte m p tin g to j o p e r a tio n a liz e any t h e o r e t i c a l c o n c e p t, b u t a d is c u s s io n o f j them w i l l n o t be p r e s e n te d a t t h i s p o i n t . O p e r a tio n a liz a t i o n i s a c r u c i a l com ponent o f t h i s d i s s e r t a t i o n and w i l l a ls o be g iv e n d e t a i l e d a t t e n t i o n i n su b se q u e n t c h a p te r s . Once th e a p p r o p r ia te fram e o f r e f e r e n c e , c o n c e p tu a l schema and o p e r a t i o n a l iz a t io n p ro c e d u re s have b een s e le c t e d , th e q u e s tio n rem ain s a s to w hat form th e m odel sh o u ld » a c t u a l l y ta k e . As m en tio n ed e a r l i e r , th e r e a re a v a r i e t y o f a p p ro a c h e s to m odel b u ild in g t h a t hav e been and c o u ld be u s e d . T h is c r e a t e s th e problem s o f d e te rm in in g e x a c tly 27 what form the model should take in the i n i t i a l sta g es o f in q u ir y . I t may he th a t c e r ta in -types o f models are i s o morphic w ith and thus appropriate to the system s under stu d y} w h ile oth ers are n o t. An inappropriate ch oice in the i n i t i a l sta g e s o f sim u la te-co n stru ctio n could have a damaging e f f e c t on subsequent a n a ly se s. With t h is problem in mind, i t might be w e ll a t th is p o in t, to heed a few words o f advice from H erbert A. Simon (1 9 5 7 :9 7 ): . . . we do w e ll to avoid 'a p r io r i' p h ilo so p h ic a l commitments to models o f p a r tic u la r I k in d s . . . • Mathematical t o o ls , lik e Humpty Dumpty's words, must be se rv a n ts, n o t m asters. A lso . . . we must n o t expect to fin d the models we need ready-made in a m athem atical textb ook . I f we are lu ck y , we s h a ll n ot have to in ven t new m athem atics, but we are very lik e ly to have to j assem ble our model from a v a r ie ty o f raw mate- j r i a l s , fo r t h is rea so n , we should be wary o f borrow ing, in any w h olesale fa sh io n , a n a lo g ica l J m odels• • • • j | There has been a con sid erable body o f lite r a tu r e l : r e c e n tly published on the con stru ction o f s o c ia l sc ien ce models (Kemeny and S n e ll, 1957; Prabhu, 1965; Coleman, 1964-; i l a z a r s f e l d and H enxy, 1966; Ando, f i s h e r and Sim on, 1963)* I n th e i n i t i a l s ta g e s o f s im u la te - c o n s tr u c tio n , h o w ev er, I ; have chosen to s t a r t w ith the use o f one o f the most sim ple 1 or e le g a n t models a v a ila b le : nam ely, a "Type I I I L inear Model" or lin e a r r e g r e ssio n model (& ra y b ill, 1 9 6 1 :1 9 5 ). j | T his p a r tic u la r model d if f e r s from the other -types o f 28 l i n e a r m odels i n t h a t p r e d i c t o r and c r i t e r i o n v a r i a b l e s a re a l l random v a r i a b l e s . The Type I I I Model ta k e s th e f o llo w i n g , f a m i l i a r form : Y = a + h ; ^ + b2X2 + . . . ♦ bjj.2^ + e Where b-^ a r e unknown p a ra m e te rs ( c o n s ta n ts o f th e m o d e l), w here X^ a re known v a lu e s o f random v a r i a b l e s , w here Y i s an e s tim a te d v a lu e o f a c r i t e r i o n v a r i a b l e and where e i s a j ! random v a r i a b l e ( r e p r e s e n tin g e r r o r o f p r e d ic tio n o r r e s i d - j j u a l e r r o r ) w ith a mean o f z e r o . The p r o p e r t i e s o f t h i s m odel w i l l be d e a l t w ith i n g r e a t e r d e t a i l i n C h ap ter IV o f t h i s d i s s e r t a t i o n . ! I S u f f ic e i t to s a y h e re t h a t t h i s p a r t i c u l a r m odel ! was ch o sen f o r i t s s im p l i c i t y and e a s e o f m a n ip u la tio n . I t seem s to p ro v id e an e le m e n ta ry s t a r t i n g p o in t f o r c o n s tr u c t in g a s im u la te . I f th e m odel w ere found to be in a p p r o p r ia te to th e o b se rv e d r e l a t i o n s h i p s betw een v a r i a b l e s , i t c o u ld th e n be m o d ifie d and more com plex ( o r s im p le ) f u n c tio n s c o u ld be a d d e d , i f n e e d e d . I f th e m odel w ere t o t a l l y in a p p r o p r ia te to th e d a ta a t h a n d , i t c o u ld be d is c a rd e d and o th e r a l t e r n a t i v e s e x p lo re d . In i d e a l te r m s , th e b a s ic m odel to be u se d c o u ld be d iv id e d i n t o th r e e p h a s e s , w hich a re r e p r e s e n te d i n f ig u r e 5 . P hase I w ould c o n s is t o f a r e g r e s s io n m odel f o r e s tim a tin g " P ro c e ss" from " in p u t." P h ase -II w ould c o n s i s t 29 PHASE I: B( i ) = B(o ) + B( 3 ) 1 (3 ) + 8 PHASE II: ® (i) “ B(o ) + B( j ) * ( 3 ) + B0 c) b (1e) + 8 PHASE I I I : 0 ( i ) = B(o ) + B( j ) 1 (3 ) + B<k) p ( k ) + B( e ) °C e) + • P ig . 5 .— B asic m odels to He u s e d i n i t i a l l y I = In p u t v a r i a b l e s P = P ro c e ss v a r i a b l e s C 3 Change and program outcom e v a r i a b l e s 0 = P o s t r e l e a s e outcome i n d i c a t o r s B i = E m p ir ic a lly -d e r iv e d c o n s ta n ts 30 o f a r eg r essio n model fo r estim a tin g "change" and "program m atic outcome" from in p u t and process d a ta . Phase I I I would c o n s is t o f a model fo r estim a tin g "Post B elease Out come" from the three oth er groups o f d a ta . Separate) 1 three-phase models could be con stru cted fo r both the experim ental and c o n tro l programs. Constant or "beta w eights" fo r a l l three phases could be computed on the b a sis o f the data th a t have been c o lle c te d from boys a t the experim ental and c o n tr o l programs. As w i l l be seen in la t e r ch ap ters) lack o f complete data on a l l relev a n t measures precluded a f u l l im plem entation o f the proposed th r ee -sta g e m odels. i 1 Sim ulation: A B r ie f D iscu ssion j j Sim ulation may be defined sim ply as the operation o f a model th a t i s designed to r e p lic a te a s p e c ific phenomenon (Dawson) 1962; Borko, 1 9 6 2 ). The term "simu la te )" lik e the term "model," i s very gen eric in nature and can in clu d e any number o f types o f models along w ith tech niques fo r m anipulating and operating them. The research er i s not lim ite d to any on e, sin g le approach. For example, one could b u ild a p h y sic a l model o f an a ir p la n e , paying c a r e fu l a tte n tio n to such d e t a ils as land in g g ea r, wing span, movable rudders and so fo r th . I f the p h y sica l model were then placed in a wind tu n n el, v a rio u s p arts o f the airp lan e might be m anipulated under variou s wind and 31 weather c o n d itio n s in order to a ss e s s the u t i l i t y o f the model and the fu n ctio n s o f i t s variou s p a r ts. As another | a lte r n a tiv e ) one could develop a m athem atical model fo r use in a computer to sim ulate variou s weather c o n d itio n s and wind v e l o c i t i e s . Without u sin g a wind tunnel and a p h y sica l i i m odel, the c h a r a c te r is tic s o f an experim ental a ir c r a ft could he punched on data c a r d s, and subm itted as input to a com- | i p u ter. Given proper programming, i t s performance might then be m anipulated and a ssesse d under v a rio u s co n d itio n s w ithout ever having to b u ild a p h y sica l rep resen ta tio n o f the p la n e. Sim ulation techn iqu es o f t h is la t t e r type seem most j a p p lica b le to research in so c io lo g y . This i s because the ! human group i s a complex e n tity * I t i s comprised o f | j in d iv id u a ls who r ea c t t o , and are in flu en ced by, a v a r ie ty o f stim u li: p s y c h o lo g ic a l, in te r a c tiv e (in the in te r personal sense o f the term ), environm ental, cu ltu r a l, s itu a tio n a l , and so fo r th . Sometimes the behavior o f a group and/or the in d iv id u a ls who comprise i t may appear to be r a tio n a l, p u rp osive, determined and thus very amenable to s o c io lo g ic a l ex p la n a tio n . At other tim es, behavior may appear to be random or ir r a t io n a l. The com plexity o f so c ia l su b ject m atter lea d s to a s itu a tio n very a p tly describ ed by I t h ie l de Sola Pool ( 196^ : 6 9 ): There i s no e le g a n t, pow erful, Newtonian kind o f grand s o c ia l sc ien ce th eory. There i s ra th er a la rg e c o lle c t io n o f u s e fu l en gin eerin g p r in c ip le s about behavior. 32 S o c ia l s c i e n t i s t s th e m se lv e s o f te n have an u n r e a l i s t i c im age o f t h e i r own s c ie n c e . They se e th e m se lv e s i n t h e i r m in d 's eye a s s o c ia l p h y s i c i s t s d is c o v e rin g b ro ad p r i n c i p l e s o f e l e g a n t s im p lic ity * In p r a c t i c e , h o w ev er, th e y do t h e i r w ork l i k e th e sy stem s e n g in e e r . They t r y to p r e d i c t th e b e h a v io r o f com plex m assiv e s y s tem s t h a t resp o n d to many v a r i a b l e s a t o n c e . They make p r e d i c t io n s t h a t a re p r o b a b i l i s t i c r a t h e r th a n d e t e r m i n i s t i c • And th e y so lv e p ro b lem s more o f te n th a n th e y d is c o v e r e t e r n a l t r u t h s . The th in g t h a t k e e p s th e s o c i a l r e s e a r c h e r from e n jo y in g th e t h e o r e t i c a l trium phs o f h i s n a t u r a l s c ie n c e c o lle a g u e s i s th e c o m p le x ity o f th e sy stem s he s t u d i e s . The q u e s tio n r a i s e d by S o la P o o l 's s ta te m e n t i s w h e th e r th e s o c ia l s c ie n c e s may be a b le to l i n k and u s e la r g e num bers o f p r o p o s itio n s w h ich , by th e m s e lv e s , do n o t y i e l d a h ig h d eg ree o f p r e d i c t a b i l i t y . I f t h i s c o u ld be d o n e, th e n more e f f i c i e n t (th o u g h n o t s im p le ) e x p la n a tio n s w ould h o p e f u lly be th e r e s u l t . T hus, s im u la tio n te c h n iq u e s ,; e s p e c i a l l y i n c o n ju n c tio n w ith m odem e l e c t r o n i c d a ta p ro c e s s in g sy stem s have b een s u g g e ste d a s th e means by w hich t h i s m ig h t be a c c o m p lish e d . They m ig h t e n a b le s o c ia l s c i e n t i s t s to exam ine and e x p la in com plex s o c ia l p r o c e s s e s f o r w hich s in g le p r o p o s itio n s w ould be in a d e q u a te . As Coleman (1 9 6 2 :6 9 ) p o in ts o u t , th e aim o f s im u la tio n i s t o : . . . program i n t o th e com puter c e r t a i n th e o r e t i c a l p r o c e s s e s , and th e n to see w hat k in d o f a b e h a v io r sy stem th e y g e n e r a te . The aim i s to p u t to g e th e r c e r t a i n p r o c e s s e s a t th e in d iv id u a l and in t e r p e r s o n a l l e v e l and th e n to see w hat c o n seq u en ces th e y have a t th e l e v e l o f th e l a r g e r sy ste m . T here a re many te c h n iq u e s by w hich su ch d a ta p ro c e s s in g ca n be im p lem en ted , b u t t h i s s tu d y w i l l a tte m p t to 33 develop what i s known as a "pure machine" sim u late. Before d isc u ssin g t h is type o f approach to sim u la tio n , perhaps i t would be m eaningful to b r ie fly mention other a lte r n a tiv e s th a t are a p p lic a b le . One type o f sim u lation th a t i s adaptable to the behavioral sc ie n c e s i s c a lle d "man-machine" sim u la tio n . i In t h is type o f s itu a tio n , human decision-m akers in te r a c t w ith a m echanical m odel. D rivers' education and p i l o t - tr a in in g machines f a l l in t h is ca teg o ry . This type o f sim u lation i s e s p e c ia lly u se fu l in teach in g stu dents opera tio n a l s k i l l s or in lea rn in g about the e ffic a c y o f v a rio u s types o f m echanical system s w ithout damaging l i f e or p rop erly. Another type o f sim u la tio n , c lo s e ly r e la te d to j "man-machine" techniques i s known as "gaming." Gaming in v o lv e s a s e r ie s o f a c to r s who compete in a "make b eliev e" environment fo r a p a r tic u la r s e t o f o b je c tiv e s . Dawson (1962) d iv id e s gaming in to the three broad c a te g o r ie s—war gaming, b u sin ess or management gaming, and p o l i t ic a l gaming. For exam ple, a game o f ch ess could be played by a North Vietnamese and a South Vietnamese General to sim ulate a war, or a game o f "Monopoly" could be played by a group o f e l i t e businessm en to sim ulate economic b eh avior. A f u l l d isc u s sio n o f "gaming" and "man-machine" sim u lates and th e ir a p p lic a tio n s to the behavioral sc ie n c e s would require a l o t o f space and developm ent. Since t h is proposed study w ill co n sid er n e ith e r o f th ese two tech n iq u es, no fu rth er 3 k 10 d is c u s s io n o f them w i l l be m ade. ! Pure-machine sim u lation can be subdivided in to two j general c a te g o r ie s: p h y sica l analog sim u lation and Sim ula- | tio n s which employ m athem atical models (Dawson, 1 9 6 2 :8 ). A p h y s ic a l a n a lo g s im u la te in v o lv e s th e c o n tin u o u s m an ip u la t i o n o f a p h y s ic a l m o d el. The exam ple o f a m odel a ir p la n e i n th e w in d -tu n n e l i s a p h y s ic a l a n a lo g s im u la te . T h is s tu d y , h o w ev er, w i l l be s p e c i f i c a l l y co n ce rn e d w ith th e con s t r u c t i o n o f a s im u la te u s in g th e s t a t i s t i c a l m odels shown j e a r l i e r i n F ig u re 5 . | A g e n e ra l flo w c h a r t i n d i c a t i n g , i n i d e a l te r m s , , 1 1 how th e s e m odels m ig h t be u se d may be fo u n d i n F ig u re 6 . The flo w c h a r t was c o n s tr u c te d to g u id e com puter program m ing, b u t i s a ls o v e ry u s e f u l f o r d e s c r ib in g th e s im u la te and th e ty p e s o f o p e r a tio n s in v o lv e d . The c h a r t c o n ta in s t h i r t e e n s e p a ra te b o x e s , e a c h r e p r e s e n tin g a s e p a ra te d e c is io n - p o in t i n th e s im u la tio n . The o p e r a tio n o f th e s im u la te i s b ased upon th e th r e e p h ase m odel d is c u s s e d i n th e p re v io u s s e c tio n and assum es t h a t th e c o n s ta n ts ( b e ta w e ig h ts , e t c e t e r a ) , i n a l l th r e e p h a s e s have b een d e t e r m in ed . A g ain , 1 w ish to em phasize t h a t s e p a ra te m odels w i l l be c o n s tr u c te d b o th f o r th e e x p e rim e n ta l and c o n tr o l 10A lso see A n a to l R ap o p o rt (1 9 5 9 ) f o r d is c u s s io n s o f gam ing. 11 Id e a ta k e n from Jo h n T . G u lla h o m and Je a n £ . G rullahom (1 9 6 5 ). BOX 1 BOX 2 BOX 3 BOX 13 BOX 5 BOX 10 BOX 11 w i; N O INDIVIDUAL O U TCO M ES ES BOX 12 N O BENT STHE PRINT PROGNOSIS ESTIMATE PROCESS OPTIMIZE OUTPUT DETERMINE INPUT CHARACTERISTICS PRINT SU M M A R Y TABLE FOR CANDIDATE IP NO ADDITIONAL RESPONDENTS. PRINT ? i g .6 .— Sim ulation flow ch art B O X 2 B O X 3 /W I L L RESPON ^DENT C O M P L E T E XTHE P R O G R A M ?. D ETER M IN E INPUT CHABACTEBIS TICS ESTIM ATE PBO CESS Y E S BO X 5 N O O N A L PRINT HE BOX 6 ESTIM ATE L E N G T H O P STA Y IN P R O G R A M B O X 7 B O X 10 W ILL R ESPO N D EN T v RECIDIVATE? . B O X 8 N O ESTIM ATE CO STS YES ESTIM ATE TYPES O P RECIDIVISM A N D DISPOSITIONS BO X 9 , v , B O X 12 'PROBABLE RECIDIVIST? OPTIM IZE O U T P U T N O O PTIM IZE C O ST O F T R E A T M E N T F i g .6 . — S im u la tio n flo w c h a r t . 3 ~ 6 “ p ro g ram s. T hus, a g iv e n in d iv id u a l o r group o f in d iv id u a ls c o u ld he h y p o th e tic a lly s im u la te d th ro u g h e i t h e r p ro g ram . Each a s p e c t o f th e flo w c h a r t i s d is c u s s e d below : Box 1 . This in v o lv e s the s e le c tio n o f a candidate fo r treatm ent a t e ith e r o f the two treatm ent programs. E ach c a n d id a te w ould be "ru n " th ro u g h b o th p ro g ram s, u s in g two s e p a r a te s e t s o f m o d e ls. H is outcom es c o u ld th e n be o b se rv e d a t e i t h e r p ro g ram . T h is i s im p o rta n t b ecau se c e r - j t a i n ty p e s o f boys may be p re d is p o s e d to behave i n a c e r t a i n i m anner i n th e e x p e rim e n ta l program and behave d i f f e r e n t l y i n th e c o n tr o l program . The tre a tm e n t p h ilo s o p h ie s and s o c ia l s t r u c t u r e s o f th e two p rogram s a r e w id e ly d i f f e r e n t , and th u s su ch d if f e r e n c e s i n in d iv id u a l outcom es c o u ld lo g ic a lly j be e x p e c te d . The p lac em e n t and s im u la tio n o f a c a n d id a te ini e i t h e r o f th e two tre a tm e n t program s i s one o f th e m ost i im p o rta n t m a n ip u la tio n s o f th e s im u la te . Box,2 .. Each c a n d id a te's inp ut c h a r a c te r is tic s would be determined in the areas d escrib ed e a r lie r : S o c ia l Background, P sych ological Inventory, O ffense H isto ry , and Peer Commitment. Box 3 . Based on h i s in p u t c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s and th e c o n s ta n ts i n th e Phase 1 l i n e a r m o d el, p ro c e s s b e h a v io r would be e s tim a te d . T h is in c lu d e s s o c io m e tric s ta n d in g , program d e lin q u e n c y and sc h o o l b e h a v io r . B o x jf. T h is p a r t o f th e s im u la te w ould u t i l i z e 37 Phase I I o f th e l i n e a r m o d el. By u s in g in p u t d a ta and p ro c e s s e s tim a te s a lo n g w ith th e p re d e te rm in e d c o n s ta n ts o f th e m o d el, i t w ould be e s tim a te d w h e th e r o r n o t th e re sp o n d e n t co m p leted th e p ro g ram . At th e c o n tr o l p ro g ram , 50 p e r c e n t o f th e boys s u c c e s s f u lly co m p leted tre a tm e n t and a t j i th e e x p e rim e n ta l program o n ly **6 p e r c e n t had s u c c e s s f u l j c o m p le tio n s . T hus, t h i s i s an im p o rta n t v a r ia b le f o r c o n - j j s i d e r a t i o n . I f s u c c e s s f u l c o m p le tio n i s e s tim a te d , th e c a n d id a te w i l l go to Box 6 . I f n o t , he w i l l go to Boxes 5 and 7* Box 5 . I f th e c a n d id a te d o es n o t com plete t r e a t m en t, a tte m p ts w i l l be made to e s tim a te th e re a s o n s w hy. I A t b o th p ro g ram s, la c k o f program c o m p le tio n f a l l s i n t o i two c a t e g o r i e s : A W O LS (ru n aw ay s) and F a ilu r e s (a boy i s dropped from tre a tm e n t due to " i n e f f e c t i v e r e h a b i l i t a t i o n " ) . A g a in , in p u t d a ta and p ro c e s s e s tim a te s w i l l be u s e d i n th e Phase I I m odel to a tte m p t to d e te rm in e t h i s p a r t i c u l a r ty p e o f outcom e. Box 6 . Change d a ta w ere c o l l e c t e d o n ly on boys who s u c c e s s f u lly co m p leted e i t h e r p ro g ram . The re a s o n s why th e y w ere n o t c o l l e c t e d from f a i l u r e s and A W O LS w i l l be d is c u s s e d i n su b se q u e n t c h a p te r s o f th e d i s s e r t a t i o n . The P hase I I m odel w i l l be u s e d to e s tim a te t h i s p a r t i c u l a r outcom e. Box 7 . F o r a l l c a n d id a te s , th e P hase I I m odel w i l l 38 be used to estim ate len g th o f stay in the program. This estim ate w ill have g rea t value la t e r on in the flow c h a r t. Box 8 . This i s a c r u c ia l part o f the sim ulate* By u t i l i z i n g the fhase I I I model along w ith input d a ta , process i e s tim a te s , change e stim a te s and e stim a tes o f programmatic outcom es, attem pts w i l l be made to determ ine whether or n ot a g iv en candidate w i l l r e c id iv a te or n o t . I f i t appears lik e ly th a t he w i l l , the candidate w i l l go on to Box I f n o t, he w ill go d ir e c tly to Box 1 0 . Box 9 » I f i t i s e s tim a te d t h a t th e re sp o n d e n t w i l l r e c i d i v a t e , th e Fhase I I I l i n e a r m odel w i l l be u s e d to d e te rm in e , more p r e c i s e l y , th e n a tu r e o f th e r e c id iv is m and su b se q u e n t d i s p o s i t i o n s . Box 1 0 . E stim ates o f "length o f sta y in the Pro gram" and recid iv ism w i l l be used to c a lc u la te the c o s t o f treatm ent both to the experim ental and co n tro l programs, and, in the case o f r ec id iv ism , to the s t a t e . Box 1 1 . A summary o f in d iv id u a l outcom es, derived from the Fhase I , I I and I I I m odels, w i l l be p rin ted fo r each ca n d id a te. A ctu ally two summary ta b le s w ill be p rin ted fo r each candidate: one fo r the experim ental pro gram and one fo r the c o n tro l program. The summary ta b le s w i l l in clu d e e stim a tes o f process b eh avior, change, program m atic outcome, p o st-r e le a se behavior and c o s t s . Box 1 2 . This i s perhaps the most in te r e s tin g and 39 u s e f u l a s p e c t o f th e s im u la te a n d , i f p r o p e rly e x e c u te d , c o u ld h av e p ro fo u n d t h e o r e t i c a l and p r a c t i c a l i m p lic a tio n s . I t w ould be e s s e n t i a l l y co n cern ed w ith two ty p e s o f c a n d i d a te s : p o t e n t i a l r e c i d i v i s t s and p o t e n t i a l n o n r e c i d i v i s t s . i A. P o t e n t i a l r e c i d i v i s t s . I f i t i s e s tim a te d t h a t j a c a n d id a te h a s a h ig h p r o b a b i li t y o f r e c i d i v a t i n g , i t w i l l be p o s s ib le to m a n ip u la te c e r t a i n com ponents o f th e sim u l a t e and to d eterm in e th e e f f e c t s o f th e s e m a n ip u la tio n s on outcom e p r o b a b i l i t i e s . F o r exam ple, l e t u s im agine a h y p o th e tic a l c a n d id a te f o r tr e a tm e n t. L e t u s suppose he i s a p e r s i s t e n t d e lin q u e n t w ith a lo n g l i s t o f re c o rd e d t h e f t o f f e n s e s , e x h i b i t s a h ig h d eg re e o f p e e r commitment and h a s no a p p a re n t p s y c h o lo g ic a l p ro b le m s. L e t u s f u r t h e r suppose - . ! t h a t we h y p o th e tic a lly ru n him th ro u g h b o th tre a tm e n t p ro gram s and o b ta in th e fo llo w in g e s tim a te s : (1 ) At b o th p ro gram s he do es p o o rly i n s c h o o l, i s n o t in v o lv e d i n a h ig h d e g re e o f program d e lin q u e n c y and h a s a f a i r l y low s o c io m e tric s ta n d in g ? (2 ) he c o m p le te s b o th program s w ith a v e iy lo n g le n g th o f s ta y ; ( 3 ) a t th e e x p e rim e n ta l p ro g ram , h i s p e e r commitment i s d e c re a s e d (changed i n th e d e s ir e d d i r e c t i o n ) , b u t a t th e same tim e h i s p s y c h o lo g ic a l p ro b lem s a re in c r e a s e d ( i n an u n d e s ir e d d i r e c t i o n ) . A f te r b e in g o u t f o u r m o n th s, he r e c i d i v a t e s by co m m ittin g a " b i z a r r e ” o f f e n s e . He i s a p p a r e n tly no lo n g e r a t h i e f , b u t a d v e rse p e r s o n a l i t y ch an g es a p p e a r to have a f f e c t e d h i s r e a d j u s t m ent to th e com m unity; (* * ■ ) a t th e i n s t i t u t i o n a l program ifO n e ith e r h is peer commitment nor p sy ch o lo g ica l a ttr ib u te s change. He r e c id iv a te s w ith in one month hy returnin g to th ie v e r y . In t h is c a s e , i t might be p o ssib le to m anipulate c e r ta in v a r ia b le s o f the sim ulate in order to optim ize out come and decrease the p r o b a b ility o f r ec id iv ism . For exam p le , we could experim ent and fin d out what would occur in the experim ental program i f we were to in crease the can d i- J d a te 's sch ool performance in a d d itio n to decreasing h is peer commitment. Would t h is a f f e c t outcome? W e could a lso i m anipulate len g th o f sta y in treatm ent to see i f t h is would have an e f f e c t . Through some form o f " ite r a tiv e " pro ced u res, we could attem pt to optim ize p o s t-r e le a se outcome w ith minimum c o st and e ff o r t to each program. An in d e fin ite number o f h y p o th etica l examples could be u sed . This par- i t ic u la r case serves only to illu s t r a t e progn ostic u t i l i t y o f the model in making d e c isio n s o f a p r a c tic a l n a tu re . In a d d itio n to such p r a c tic a l concerns, however, the sim ulate could a ls o have tremendous u t i l i t y in the area o f hypothesis- b u ild in g and t e s t in g . B. Probable n o n r e o id iv is ts . Even i f i t i s e s t i mated th a t a candidate w i l l n ot r e c id iv a te , the sim ulate could be used to determ ine whether comparable outcomes could be obtained w ith decreased time and c o s t . Box 1 3 . I f a g ro u p o f c a n d id a te s a re b e in g exam i n e d , sy stem s outcom es ( i n th e form o f r a t e s ) , c o u ld be »fl c a l c u l a t e d i n a d d itio n to in d iv id u a l summary t a b l e s , f o r ex am p le, a t e i t h e r tre a tm e n t p ro g ram , th e fo llo w in g th in g s c o u ld be e s tim a te d f o r a group o f c a n d id a te s : (1 ) runaw ay r a t e s ; ( 2 ) f a i l u r e r a t e s ; (3 ) r e c id iv is m r a t e s ; C^) th e f l u c t u a t i o n o f th e s e r a t e s i n tim e ; ( 5 ) t o t a l c o s t o f t r e a t m ent f o r e ac h g roup; (6 ) e x te n t o f program d e lin q u e n c y ; and (7 ) sc h o o l e x p e c ta tio n s f o r a g iv e n g ro u p , and so f o r t h . T ypes o f S im u la tio n T hree m ajo r ty p o s o f s im u la tio n a re p la n n e d , once th e m odels have been d e v e lo p e d , f i r s t , h y p o t h e t i c a l , " id e a l ty p e s " o f d e lin q u e n ts w i l l be c r e a te d on th e b a s is o f th e c a u s a tio n th e o r y , p r e s e n te d e a r l i e r . One problem o f i a s s e s s in g th e e f f ic a c y o f program s su c h a s S ilv e r la k e i s ■ t h a t th e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f th e d e lin q u e n ts w hich th e y a tte m p t to change r a r e l y conform e x a c tly to th e t h e o r e t i c a l a ssu m p tio n s upon w hich p ro g ra m a tic s t r u c t u r e s a re b u i l t . U sing th e c a u s a tio n th e o r y (p re s e n te d e a r l i e r ) a s a g u id e , |th e fo llo w in g " id e a l typos" o f d e lin q u e n ts c o u ld , f o r i ex am p le, be c r e a te d : S o c ia l C la ss A chieve m en ts S tr a in P e e r I d e n t i f i c a t i o n D e lin quency TYPE I LOU L O W HIGH HIGH HIGH TYPE I I L O W LO W HIGH L O W HIGH TYPE I I I L O W L O W L O W HIGH HIGH TYPE IV L O W L O W L O W L O W HIGH k 2 S o c ia l C la ss A chieve m ents S t r a i n P e e r I d e n t i f i c a t i o n D e lin quency TYPE V L O W HIGH HIGH HIGH HIGH TYPE VI L O W HIGH HIGH L O W L O W TYPE V II L O W HIGH L O W HIGH HIGH TYPE V III L O W HIGH L O W L O W HIGH Type I c o rre s p o n d s e x a c tly to th e " i d e a l " ty p e o f d e lin q u e n t w hich th e S ilv e r la k e Program was d e s ig n e d to c h a n g e . Types I I th ro u g h V I II v a ry t o d i f f e r i n g d e g r e e s , from t h i s t h e o r e t i c a l i d e a l . The c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f e a c h o f th e s e ty p e s o f d e lin q u e n ts c o u ld be punched on c a r d s , and th e y c o u ld be s im u la te d th ro u g h th e S ilv e r la k e P ro g ram . E s tim a te d outcom es f o r e a c h ty p e c o u ld th e n be o b ta in e d . T h u s, th e e f f ic a c y o f th e program c o u ld be exam ined f o r th e " id e a l" t h e o r e t i c a l ty p e o f d e lin q u e n t f o r w hich i t was d e s ig n e d , a s w e ll a s f o r v a r i a n t s o f t h i s b a s ic i d e a l . iy c o n t r a s t , e a c h o f th e s e ty p e s c o u ld a ls o be s im u la te d th ro u g h th e c o n tr o l p ro g ram and i t s outcom es c o u ld be com p a re d w ith th o se o f S i l v e r l a k e . Such s im u la tio n i s p o ssib le b e c au se th e m odels c o n s tr u c te d to r e p l i c a t e th e program w ould be b a se d on th e c e n t r a l c o n c e p ts o f th e " c a u s a tio n th e o r y ." System O p tim iz a tio n A seco n d way s im u la tio n c o u ld be u s e d w ould b e to a tte m p t to o p tim iz e th e sy stem o u tp u ts o f th e e x p e rim e n ta l ^3 and c o n t r o l p ro g ra m s. Runaways and f a i l u r e s from th e con t r o l p ro g ram , f o r ex am p le, c o u ld he " ru n th ro u g h " th e e x p e rim e n ta l program i n o r d e r to se e i f th e ch an c e s o f t h e i r p ro b lem b e h a v io r c o u ld be re d u c e d . S im ila r ly , th e runaw ays and f a i l u r e s o f th e e x p e rim e n ta l program c o u ld be ru n th ro u g h th e c o n tr o l program w ith th e same o b j e c t i v e . i By so d o in g , boys c o u ld th e n be r e a s s ig n e d to th e program s i n su ch a way a s to re d u c e "in -p ro g ra m te r m in a tio n s " and to o p tim iz e th e r e t e n t i o n o f boys w ith in th e sy ste m . The same p ro c e d u re s c o u ld be fo llo w e d w ith r e c i d i v i s t s . R e c id i v i s t s from th e c o n tr o l program c o u ld be ru n th ro u g h th e e x p e r i m e n ta l program to see i f t h e i r d e lin q u e n c y c o u ld be re d u c e d more e f f e c t i v e l y , and v ic e v e r s a . I f v a l i d m odels a r e d e v e lo p e d , su ch m a n ip u la tio n s c o u ld g r e a t l y im prove th e f u tu r e e f f i c i e n c y o f c o r r e c t i o n a l sy stem s by m atch in g ty p e s o f o f f e n d e r s to th e m ost e f f e c t i v e c o r r e c t i o n a l a l t e r n a t i v e s . Of c o u r s e , th e r e w i l l u n d o u b te d ly be a s m a ll group o f boys f o r whom no p r e s e n t tre a tm e n t s tr a t e g y w ould be e f f e c t i v e . The s im u la tio n w ould e n a b le one to i s o l a t e th e s e b o y s , exam ine t h e i r c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s , and d e riv e more e f f e c t i v e t h e o r e t i c a l s t r a t e g i e s and c o r r e c t i o n a l program s f o r d e a lin g w ith t h e i r p ro b le m s. R e l i a b i l i t y o f th e S im u la te The t h i r d u s e o f th e s im u la te w i l l be an a tte m p t to exam ine th e r e l i a b i l i t y o f th e s im u la te . S in ce boys w ere random ly a s s ig n e d to th e e x p e rim e n ta l and c o n tr o l p ro gram s from a common p o p u la tio n , i f we w ere to- ta k e th e con t r o l s u b je c ts a s a g ro u p and s im u la te them th ro u g h th e e x p e rim e n ta l program we w ould e x p e c t th e sy stem s outcom es to be e s s e n t i a l l y th e same a s th e y w ere f o r th e o r i g i n a l e x p e rim e n ta l g ro u p . The same sh o u ld h o ld tr u e i f th e e x p e rim e n ta l s u b je c ts a s a g ro u p w ere s im u la te d th ro u g h th e c o n tr o l p ro g ram . The f e a s i b i l i t y o f t h i s o p e r a tio n r e s t s e n t i r e l y on th e e f f e c t i v e im p le m e n ta tio n o f ra n d o m iz a tio n . S in ce th e sam ples w ere e s s e n t i a l l y s i m i l a r a t t h e i r a s s ig n m ent to e i t h e r p ro g ram , s im i l a r program outcom es s h o u ld be o b serv ed i f sam ple a ssig n m e n ts a re h y p o th e tic a lly s w itc h e d . C o n clu sio n I f t h i s stu d y i s e x e c u te d p r o p e r ly , and a w o rk ab le s im u la te i s d e v e lo p e d , i t c an f u n c tio n to se rv e a v a r i e t y o f e n d s , b o th s c i e n t i f i c and p r a c t i c a l . On th e s c i e n t i f i c s i d e , i t c o u ld f u n c tio n to t e s t h y p o th e se s c o n c e rn in g th e e f f i c a c y o f u s in g d i f f e r e n t ty p e s o f i n t e r v e n ti o n f o r d i f f e r e n t ty p e s o f d e lin q u e n ts , to b y p a ss c e r t a i n e t h i c a l o b je c tio n s o f e x p e rim e n tin g w ith " r e a l ” p e o p le i n a tte m p t in g to in d u c e v a r io u s ty p e s o f ch an g e, to exam ine th e i n t e r r e l a t i o n s h i p o f s t r u c t u r a l and in d iv id u a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s a s th e y r e l a t e to s p e c i f i c ty p e s o f b e h a v io r , to exam in e q u ic k ly and w ith e a s e , com plex s e t s o f d a ta and t h e i r i n t e r r e l a t i o n s h i p s , and f i n a l l y th e m odel ( in th e n o n n o rm ativ e s e n s e ) c o u ld s e rv e a s a m odel ( i n th e n o rm a tiv e s e n s e ) f o r th e c o l l e c t i o n and a n a ly s is o f d a ta i n c o r r e c t i o n a l r e s e a r c h . On th e p r a c t i c a l s id e , th e m odel c o u ld be a n in v a lu a b le a id to d e c is io n -m a k in g . I f p r o p e rly d e v e lo p e d , i t c o u ld h e lp to d e te rm in e w hich ty p e s o f boys a re b e s t s u it e d to d i f f e r e n t tre a tm e n t a l t e r n a t i v e s and w hich ty p e s o f c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s s h o u ld be th e t a r g e t o f a change s t r a t e g y , f u rth e r m o re , i t c o u ld h e lp d e te rm in e th e o p tim a l s tr a t e g y i n term s o f minimum tim e and c o s ts to tre a tm e n t program s and to th e s t a t e . The n eed f o r a t t e n t i o n to su ch p r a c t i c a l en d s i s w e ll sum m arized i n a r e c e n t r e p o r t by The P r e s i d e n t ’s Com- j m is s io n on Law E n fo rcem en t and th e A d m in is tra tio n o f J u s t i c e (1 9 6 7 ): T here i s a n e e d to c o r r e l a t e b o th in d iv id u a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s and -type o f tr e a tm e n t to r e c id iv is m a s m easured by f u r t h e r com m ission o f c rim e s , a r r e s t s and com m itm ents. Ju d g es and c o r r e c t i o n a l o f f i c e r s n e ed in fo rm a tio n t h a t w i l l h e lp them d e c id e w hat tr e a tm e n t to p r e s c r i b e . They n e e d to know th e d i f f e r e n t i a l e f f e c t s o f v a r io u s k in d s o f tre a tm e n t on v a r io u s k in d s o f i n d i v i d u a l s . CHAPTER I I DESCRIPTION OF THE SYSTEMS TO BE SIMULATED The two c o r r e c t i o n a l program s to be s im u la te d i n t h i s s tu d y a re th e B o y s' R ep u b lic a t Chino and th e S ilv e r la k e E x p e rim e n t. The p u rp o se o f t h i s c h a p te r i s to p ro v id e a b r i e f d e s c r i p t i o n o f th e b a s ic c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f th e s e two p ro g ram s. A more p r e c is e and d e t a i l e d d e s c r i p t i o n o f them may be found i n th e book by Empey, Lubeck and Newland (1969)* The fo llo w in g d is c u s s io n i s l a r g e l y a c o n d e n s a tio n o f c h a p te r s I I , I I I and IV o f t h i s w ork. I n d e s c r ib in g th e p ro g ram s, th e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f th e S ilv e r la k e E x p erim en t w i l l be p r e s e n te d f i r s t , to be fo llo w e d by a d e s c r ip tio n o f B oys' R e p u b lic . The S ilv e r la k e Program The S ilv e r la k e Program was b a se d on th r e e m ajo r b u ild in g b lo c k s : (1 ) a s e r i e s o f t h e o r e t i c a l s ta te m e n ts a b o u t th e c a u s a tio n o f d e lin q u e n c y ; (2 ) a s e r i e s o f i n t e r v e n tio n g u i d e l i n e s , d e r iv e d from th e th e o r y , c o n c e rn in g how d e lin q u e n ts sh o u ld be changed; and (3 ) a p ro g ra m a tic s t r u c t u r e in v e n te d i n o r d e r to p u t th e g u id e lin e s i n t o e f f e c t . The ex p e rim e n t r e p r e s e n ts an a tte m p t to t i e th e * * 6 J+7 e le m e n ts o f th e o r y , r e s e a r c h and p r a c t i c e to g e th e r i n t o a s in g le e n t e r p r i s e . The th e o ry o f d e lin q u e n c y c a u s a tio n , from w h ich th e i n t e r v e n ti o n g u id e lin e s w ere d e r iv e d , was b a sed on th e fo llo w in g f o u r e m p iric a l g e n e r a l i z a t i o n s : F i r s t , i t was s u g g e s te d t h a t lo w e r - c la s s b o y s , e s p e c i a l l y th o se who t u r n o u t to be o f f i c i a l l y d e lin q u e n t, a r e i l l - p r e p a r e d by fa m ily background and c u l t u r a l h e r i ta g e to a c h ie v e i n th e c o n te x t o f m id d le - c la s s i n s t i t u t i o n s . S eco n d , i t was a rg u ed t h a t t h i s i n a b i l i t y to a c h ie v e i s p ro d u c tiv e o f s t r a i n f o r lo w e r - c la s s b o y s . They | i n t e r n a l i z e b a s ic v a lu e s em p h asiz in g a c h ie v e m e n t, on one h a n d , b u t f i n d , on th e o t h e r , t h a t b ecau se o f t h e i r p o s i t i o n i n th e s o c ia l s t r u c t u r e t h e i r ch a n c e s f o r s u c c e s s a re j e x tre m e ly l i m i t e d . They a re c o n f r o n te d , a s a r e s u l t , w ith a s e r io u s problem o f a d ju s tm e n t. T h ir d , i t was p o in te d o u t t h a t th e r e a r e th r e e m ajo r a l t e r n a t i v e s by w hich t h i s p roblem o f a d ju stm e n t can be r e s o lv e d . The m a jo r ity w i l l choose a c o n fo rm is t a l t e r n a t i v e : a m in o rity w i l l become d e v ia n t. B ut o f th o s e who become d e v ia n t, m ost w i l l do so c o l l e c t i v e l y . I d e n t i f i c a t i o n w ith d e lin q u e n t p e e r s and p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n a d e l i n q u e n t s u b c u ltu r e w i l l be s u b s t i t u t e d a s a l t e r n a t i v e means f o r a c h ie v in g th e s t a t u s , r e c o g n itio n and b e lo n g in g w hich have n o t been r e a l i z e d i n a c o n v e n tio n a l w ay. kQ f o u r t h , i t was s u g g e ste d t h a t , i n th e p ro c e s s o f i d e n t i f y i n g w ith d e lin q u e n t p e e r s , i n d iv id u a ls came to a d o p t s u b c u ltu r a l s ta n d a rd s w hich r e s u l t i n t h e i r becom ing in c r e a s in g ly in v o lv e d i n d e lin q u e n t b e h a v io r. These f o u r e m p ir ic a l g e n e r a liz a tio n s became th e b a s is f o r th e fo llo w in g f o u r t h e o r e t i c a l p o s tu l a t e s : P o s tu la te I : lo w e r s o c ia l c l a s s r e s u l t s i n d e c re a se d a c h ie v e m e n t. P o s tu la te I I : le c r e a s e d ach iev em en t r e s u l t s i n in c r e a s e d s t r a i n . P o s tu la te I I I : In c re a s e d s t r a i n r e s u l t s i n h ig h j i d e n t i f i c a t i o n w ith d e lin q u e n t ! p e e r s . | P o s tu la te IV: H igh i d e n t i f i c a t i o n w ith d e lin q u e n t p e e r s r e s u l t s i n d e lin q u e n c y . Py u s in g o n ly th e p o s t u l a t e s a s p r e m is e s , and by em ploying th e r u l e s o f a x io m a tic l o g i c , th e fo llo w in g " f i r s t o rd e r" th eo rem s w ere deduced: Theorem I : Lower s o c ia l c l a s s r e s u l t s i n in c r e a s e d s t r a i n (deduced from P o stu l a t e I and P o s tu la te I I ) . Theorem I I : le c r e a s e d ach iev em en t r e s u l t s i n in c r e a s e d i d e n t i f i c a t i o n w ith d e l i n q u e n t p e e r s (d ed u ced from P o s tu la te I I and P o s tu la te I I I ) . Theorem I l l s In c re a s e d s t r a i n r e s u l t s i n d e l i n quency (deduced from P o s tu la te I I I and P o s tu la te IV ). These f i r s t th r e e th eo rem s e x h a u ste d th e d e d u c tiv e im p lic a t i o n s o f th e s e t o f f o u r p o s t u l a t e s , y e t th r e e a d d i t i o n a l th eo rem s c o u ld s t i l l he s t a t e d . T h e ir d e r i v a t i o n , h o w ev er, r e q u ir e d th e u s e o f one p o s tu la te and one p re v io u s ly deduced th e o rem , s in c e th e f i n a l th r e e theorem s c o u ld n o t he deduced s o le ly from th e p o s t u l a t e s . They w ere c a l l e d | 1 f " s e c o n d -o rd e r" th eo rem s and w ere a s f o llo w s : | Theorem IV: Lower s o c ia l c l a s s r e s u l t s i n id e n t i f i c a t i o n w ith d e lin q u e n t p e e rs (d ed u ced from P o s tu la te I and Theorem I I ) . Theorem V: D ecreased ach iev em en t r e s u l t s i n d e lin q u e n c y (d ed u ced from P o s tu la te I I and Theorem I I I ) . Theorem V I: Lower s o c ia l c l a s s r e s u l t s i n d e l i n quency (d educed from P o s tu la te I and Theorem V ). The above s e t o f f o u r p o s tu l a t e s and s i x th eo rem s e x h a u s te d th e d e d u c tiv e im p lic a tio n s o f th e th e o r y . P o s tu la te IV , Theorem I I I and Theorem V from th e th e o ry w ere th e n u s e d to d e r iv e th e fo llo w in g g u id e lin e s f o r i n t e r v e n ti o n : 50 G u id e lin e 1 : The d e lin q u e n t g ro u p s h o u ld be made th e t a r g e t o f c h a n g e . A. D e lin q u e n ts sh o u ld he a s s im ila te d i n t o g ro u p s w hich em phasize la w -a b id in g b e h a v io r a n d , c o n c u r r e n tly , a li e n a t e d from g ro u p s w hich f a v o r d e lin q u e n t b e h a v io r. B. When th e d e lin q u e n t group i s made th e t a r g e t o f | c h a n g e , s tr o n g p r e s s u re f o r change can be a c h ie v e d by m aking th e g ro u p i t s e l f th e medium o f c h a n g e . U n le ss p r e s s u r e s f o r change a r e g e n e ra te d w ith in th e g ro u p , th e n p r e s s u r e s e x e r te d by o u ts id e r s w i l l have l i t t l e im p a c t. C. The o v e r rid in g p u rp o se o f any g ro u p sh o u ld be se e n by members a s t h a t o f ch an g in g d e lin q u e n t b e h a v io r. O th e r p u rp o se s a r e o f a se c o n d a ry n a t u r e . D. The d e lin q u e n t sh o u ld be sp o n so re d i n a r e fo rm a tio n r o l e . The m ost e f f e c t i v e m echanism f o r e x e r tin g g ro u p p re s s u re on members w i l l o c c u r i n g ro u p s i n w hich d e lin q u e n ts a re in d u ce d to j o i n w ith non d e lin q u e n ts f o r th e p u rp o se o f ch an g in g o th e r d e lin q u e n ts . i G u id e lin e 2 : S o c ia l s t r a i n among d e lin q u e n ts sh o u ld be re d u c e d . A. D e lin q u e n t am b iv alen ce can be m ost e f f e c t i v e l y u t i l i z e d i n a s e t t i n g co n d u civ e to th e f r e e e x p re s - __________ f?ich o f f e e l i n g s . The p r o te c t io n and rew ard s p ro v id e d by any program f o r c a n d o r m ust ex ceed th o s e p ro v id e d e i t h e r by d e lin q u e n ts f o r ad h eren ce to d e lin q u e n t r o l e s o r by o f f i c i a l s f o r ad h eren ce to c u s to d ia l r e q u ire m e n ts . B. I f th e g ro u p i s to be u s e d a s th e medium o f ch an g e , th e d e lin q u e n ts who a re to be ch an g ed , and th e c o r r e c t i o n a l w o rk e rs who a re to e x e r t in f lu e n c e f o r c h a n g e , m ust have a s tr o n g se n se o f b e lo n g in g to th e same g ro u p . C. The s t r u c t u r a l r e s t r a i n t s w hich have t r a d i t i o n a l l y b lo ck ed com m unication i n c o r r e c t i o n a l o r g a n iz a tio n s sh o u ld be rem oved. A ll in fo rm a tio n r e l a t i n g t o th e n eed f o r c h a n g e , th e m ethods to be u s e d , and th e j co n seq u en ces o f change m ust be sh a re d by a l l r e l e - ! v a n t p e o p le . D. Changes i n th e d e lin q u e n t segm ent o f th e o rg a n iz a t i o n w i l l i n e v i t a b l y produce ch an g es i n th e o f f i c i a l seg m en t. Such ch an g es w i l l n o t o c c u r w ith o u t con f l i c t and te n s i o n . G u id e lin e 3 ; Means f o r l e g itim a te ach iev em en t by d e l i n q u e n ts sh o u ld be made a v a i l a b l e . A. The d e lin q u e n t m ust be m o tiv a te d to w ant to a c h ie v e . T h is c an be acco m p lish e d i f he i s sp o n so re d i n a r e fo rm a tio n r o l e , a s d e s c rib e d a b o v e , and i f th e r e a r e in c e n tiv e s i n th e c o r r e c t i o n a l p ro c e s s f o r a 52 heavy d eg ree o f in v o lv e m e n t. B. A r it e - o f - p a s s a g e f o r th e o f fe n d e r from a d e lin q u e n t to a n o n d e lin q u e n t s t a t u s i s n e c e s s a z y . He n e e d s e f f e c t i v e lin k a g e w ith th e n o n d e lin q u e n t w o rld . T h is w i l l r e q u ir e community in v o lv em en t and a r a t i f i c a t i o n o f ach iev em en t by n o n d e lin q u e n t p e e r s and a d u l t s . Beyond th e s e i n t e r v e n ti o n g u i d e l i n e s , and t h e i r in h e r e n t p r i n c i p l e s , no s p e c ia l g u id e lin e was s u g g e s te d a s a means o f re sp o n d in g t o th e c l a s s m em berships o f d e lin q u e n ts . E x c ep t f o r e f f o r t s to re d u c e s t r a i n o r enhance a c h ie v e m e n t, a tte m p ts to change c l a s s i d e n t i t i e s and m em berships w ere n o t im p lie d . I n o rd e r to im plem ent th e s e g u i d e l i n e s , a s m a ll, e x p e rim e n ta l program was c r e a te d and lo c a te d i n a r e s id e n t i a l a r e a o f Los A n g e le s . The o b je c tiv e s o f th e S ilv e r la k e program w ere to c o n c e n tr a te upon m a in ta in in g t i e s w ith th e j community and r e tu r n in g boys to r e g u l a r p u r s u i t s a s soon a s j p o s s i b l e . Ho more th a n tw en ty boys w ere a s s ig n e d to th e program a t any one tim e . The program was i n t e n t i o n a l l y k e p t jsm all i n o rd e r to enhance com m unication and c o l l a b o r a t io n among s t a f f members and in m a te s . Boys w ere r e q u ir e d to a tte n d th e n eig h b o rh o o d h ig h sch o o l and th e y s p e n t e a c h weekend a t home o r w ith some f r ie n d o r r e l a t i v e . Boys were re q u ire d to a tte n d d a ily group m e e tin g s and th e r e was an 53 em p h asis upon group p ro b le m -s o lv in g i n w hich boys s h a re d w ith s t a f f i n exam ining i s s u e s , m aking im p o rta n t d e c is io n s and c o n d u c tin g th e b u s in e s s o f th e r e s id e n c e . She num ber o f s t a f f members a t th e e x p e rim e n ta l r e s id e n c e was d e l i b e r a t e l y k e p t s m a ll, co m p risin g two f u l l tim e c o u n s e lo rs and a p a r t- tim e work s u p e r v is o r , t u t o r and j I c o o k . A ll s t a f f members were in v o lv e d i n th e th e r a p e u tic j c u ltu r e o f th e program and th e le a d e r s h ip s t y l e o f a d u lts was f u n c tio n a l and d e m o c ra tic r a t h e r th a n a u t h o r i t a r i a n . A s o c ia l sy stem was c o n s tr u c te d w hich a tte m p te d to f o s t e r t r u s t and c a n d id com m u n icatio n . A tte m p ts were made to d e v elo p an o p en , r a t h e r th a n c a s t e - l i k e , sy stem i n w hich in m a te s w ould s h a re pow er w ith s t a f f m em bers. I n b r i e f , an .j a tte m p t was made to d ev elo p a c o ll a b o r a t iv e s o c ia l sy stem th ro u g h th e developm ent o f a t r u s t c lim a te i n w hich open com m unication w ould p r e v a i l and where pow er and s t a t u s c o u ld be s h a re d by b o th in m ate and s t a f f m em bers. The n o rm a tiv e s t r u c t u r e o f th e e x p e rim e n ta l program was k e p t s im p le , and c o n ta in e d th e fo llo w in g s ix g ro u n d r u l e s : 1 . Boys were r e q u ir e d to l i v e a t th e r e s id e n c e . S in ce th e y w ere a s s ig n e d by th e c o u r t , th e o n ly o th e r a l t e r n a t i v e was r e t u r n to c o u r t w ith th e p o s s ib le d a n g e r o f i n c a r c e r a t i o n . 2 . Boys c o u ld n o t come and go a s th e y p le a s e d . They w ould have to m eet some k in d o f a s c h e d u le , 9* to be d e c id e d upon a s th e program d e v e lo p e d . 3 . S chool a tte n d a n c e was m an d ato ry . If. P h y s ic a l a s s a u l t would n o t be t o l e r a t e d . 5 . A d e c lin e i n d e lin q u e n t b e h a v io r was n e c e s s a r y . W hile i t w ould be u n r e a l i s t i c to e x p e c t t h a t boys c o u ld a r b i t r a r i l y and im m ed iately a l t e r t h e i r l i f e - s t y l e s , th e y w ould have to u n d e r s ta n d t h a t th e e x p e rim e n ta l program would n o t be a hav en f o r p e r s i s t e n t law v i o l a t o r s . What th e y sh o u ld u n d e rs ta n d i s t h a t a g ra d u a l d im in u tio n o f la w - v io la tin g b e h a v io r w ould be e x p e c te d a s th e y le a r n e d more ab o u t how to d e a l w ith i t . 6 . The new program was n o t a p la c e to "do tim e ." I t was d e s ig n e d to r e t u r n bo y s to th e community a s q u ic k ly a s p o s s i b l e . H ow ever, no s e t le n g th o f s ta y was to be e s ta b li s h e d and a g iv e n b o y 's r e le a s e w ould be c o n tin g e n t upon h i s demon s t r a t e d ch an g es i n b e h a v io r and a t t i t u d e . A summary o f th e b a s ic program c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f th e e x p e rim e n t may be fo u n d i n T able 1 . The B o y s' B ep u b lie Program The program c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f B oys' B ep u b lie p ro - } v id e d a s h a rp c o n t r a s t to th o se o f th e S ilv e r la k e E x p e ri m en t. B o y s' B ep u b lie was a l a r g e , p r i v a t e , c o r r e c t i o n a l 55 TABLE 1 CHARACTERISTICS OR THE SILVERLAKE PROGRAM P rogram m atic Assumptions P rogram m atic G u id e lin e s P rogram m atic T ech n iq u es R ole o f S t a f f Type o f S o c ia l System L in k ag e w ith Community 1* In c re a s e d i d e n t i f i c a t i o n w ith d e lin q u e n t p e e r s r e s u l t s i n d e l i n quency . 2 . In c re a s e d s t r a i n r e s u l t s i n d e l i n quency . 3* D ecreased ach iev em en t r e s u l t s i n d e lin q u e n c y . * < -• Lower s o c ia l c l a s s r e s u l t s i n d e lin q u e n c y . 1 . The d e lin q u e n t g ro u p sh o u ld be made th e t a r g e t o f c h an g e. 2 . S o c ia l s t r a i n among d e lin q u e n ts sh o u ld be re d u c e d . 3 . Means f o r l e g i t i m a t e ach iev em en t by d e lin q u e n ts sh o u ld be made a v a i l a b l e . 1 . B a sic program com ponents in c lu d e d d a i l y g ro u p m e e tin g s , a tte n d a n c e a t s c h o o ly and lim ite d work and t u t o r i a l a c t i v i t i e s . 1 . L e a d e rsh ip s t y l e o f a d u lt i s fu n c t i o n a l r a t h e r th a n a u t h o r i t a r i a n . 2 . The num ber o f s t a f f and r e l a t i o n s h ip s w ith o f fe n d e r s sh o u ld be k e p t sim p le and d i r e c t . 1 . S iz e o f program i n t e n t i o n a l l y k e p t sm a ll and o r g a n iz a tio n a l s t r u c t u r e k e p t s im p le . 2 . In m ates s h a re pow er. 3 . A ttem p t t o h av e an o p e n , r a t h e r th a n c a s te sy ste m . *f. Em phasis on c a n d id com m u n icatio n . 1 . Program f a c i l i t y lo c a te d i n r e s i d e n t i a l com m unity. 2 . Boys a tte n d sc h o o l i n th e community. 3* Boys v i s i t home on w eekends. 56 TABLE 1— C on tin u ed E f f e c t i v e Use o f Group 1 . B a lly g ro u p m e e tin g u s e d a s th e p rim ary m echanism th ro u g h w hich a tte m p ts a t p ro b le m -s o lv in g and c o l la b o r a tio n w ere im p lem en ted . 2 . E f f e c tiv e u s e made o f group dynam ics and e v o lu tio n a ry p ro c e s s e s . B evelopm ent o f C o lla b o r a tiv e S o c ia l System 1 . A ttem p ts made t o d ev elo p a c o lla b o r a t iv e s o c ia l system th ro u g h an em ph asis on d e v e lo p in g a t r u s t c lim a te i n w hich open com m u n ic a tio n p r e v a i l s and w here pow er and s t a t u s can be s h a re d by in m a te s and s t a f f . 57 i n s t i t u t i o n w hich was s e lf - c o n ta in e d and lo c a te d i n a r e l a t i v e l y i s o l a t e d , r u r a l a r e a . I t was a " t o t a l " i n s t i t u t i o n i n an open s e t t i n g . I t was r e l a t i v e l y s e l f - s u s t a i n i n g w ith i t s own fa rm , sc h o o l and work program and w ith i t s own s t a f f o f t e a c h e r s , c o u n s e lo r s , m e d ic a l p e r s o n n e l, farm and d a ir y w o rk e rs , h o u se m o th e rs, m ain ten an ce p e rso n n e l and a d m in is tr a tiv e s t a f f . The program ho u sed a maximum o f 125 boys f o r whom lo n g -te rm , m a tu r a tio n a l, e d u c a tio n a l and work o b je c tiv e s w ere s e t . The a v e ra g e le n g th o f s ta y was f o u r te e n m onths and some b o y s rem ained a s lo n g a s two y e a r s . The program m atic assu m p tio n s o f B oys' R ep u b lic w ere tw o fo ld : (1 ) t h a t d e lin q u e n ts la c k a d e q u a te s o c i a l i z a t i o n ; and (2 ) t h a t d e v ia n t b e h a v io r i s due to th e d e lin q u e n ts ' i la c k o f a c c e p ta n c e o f s o c ia l r u l e s and a u t h o r i t y . Program o b je c tiv e s c o n c e n tra te d on t r a i n i n g boys i n th e v a lu e s and I s k i l l s w h ich a re n e c e s s a r y to com pete e f f e c t i v e l y i n s o c i e t y . An a c c e p ta n c e o f a u th o r ity was a ls o h e a v ily s t r e s s e d . The b a s ic pro g ram m atic te c h n iq u e a t B oys' R ep u b lic was d i d a c t i c . O ffe n d e rs w ere d e a l t w ith by c o u n s e lo rs , t e a c h e r s , and c u s to d ia n s on an i n d i v i d u a l i s t i c , o n e -to -o n e b a s i s . A ttem p ts w ere th e re b y made to te a c h them a p p r o p ria te modes o f c o n d u c t and to p ro v id e them w ith c o n v e n tio n a l r o le m odels w ith whom th e y c o u ld i d e n t i f y . The le a d e r s h ip s t y l e o f s t a f f members was e s s e n t i a l l y a u t h o r i t a r i a n i n n a t u r e . 58 These c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s r e s u l t e d i n th e e v o lu tio n o f a s o c ia l sy stem w hich was c a s t e - l i k e i n n a tu r e : a sy stem i n w h ich th e r e was a s h a rp d i v i s i o n i n t o s t a f f and in m ate g ro u p s . As a r e s u l t , th e r e was a h eav y em phasis on o b ed ien ce and c o n fo rm ity w ith l i t t l e m a n ife s t c o n c e rn w ith c o l l a b o r a t io n betw een o f fe n d e r s and s t a f f . B ecause o f th e n a tu r e o f i t s s o c ia l system and b ecau se o f i t s i s o l a t i o n , th e r e was l i t t l e lin k a g e betw een B oys' B e p u b lie and th e l o c a l com m unity. Boys a t e , s l e p t , i w orked, a tte n d e d sc h o o l and p la y e d w ith in th e c o n f in e s o f th e i n s t i t u t i o n . A summary o f th e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f Boys* B ep u b lie may be found i n T ab le 2 . Summary In summary, th e o r g a n iz a tio n a l s t r u c t u r e s and th e o r e t i c a l r a t i o n a l e s o f B oys’ B ep u b lie and S ilv e r la k e w ere w id e ly d i f f e r e n t . B o y s' B ep u b lie was r e p r e s e n t a t i v e o f th e l a r g e , t r a d i t i o n a l , " t o t a l - i n s t i t u t i o n a l " ap p ro ach to h a n d lin g p e r s i s t e n t d e lin q u e n ts . I t was s e p a r a te from th e com m unity, was r e l a t i v e l y s e l f - s u s t a i n i n g and had an a u t h o r i t a r i a n , c a s t e - l i k e s tr u c t u r e w ith in w hich d e l i n q u e n ts w ere d e a l t w ith on a h ig h ly in d iv id u a liz e d b a s i s . S i l v e r l a k e , on th e o th e r h a n d , r e p r e s e n te d an a tte m p t a t c o r r e c t i o n a l in n o v a tio n . I t was a s m a ll, r e s i d e n t i a l l y - lo c a te d f a c i l i t y t h a t em phasized c o l l a b o r a t iv e and c a n d id g ro u p i n t e r a c t i o n among boys and s t a f f m em bers. B a th e r 59 TABLE 2 CHARACTERISTICS OE THE BOYS' REPUBLIC PROGRAM P rogram m atic A ssum ptions 1 . 2 . O ffen d e rs la c k a d e q u a te s o c i a l i z a t i o n . D ev ian t b e h a v io r i s due to th e d e l i n q u e n t 's la c k o f a c c e p ta n c e o f s o c ia l r u l e s and a u t h o r i t y . Program m atic O b je c tiv e s 1 . T ra in in g i n v a lu e s and s k i l l s o f p red o m in an t c u l t u r e , a c c e p ta n c e o f a u t h o r it y . P rogram m atic T e ch n iq u es 1 . 2 . D id a c tic m ethod. O ffen d ers d e a l t w ith on in d i v i d u a l i s t i c b a s is i n a g ro u p s e t t i n g . R ole o f S t a f f o r T h e r a p is t 1 . A u th o r ita r ia n le a d e r s h ip s t y l e . Type o f S o c ia l System 1 . 2 . C aste sy stem w ith d i v is io n i n t o s t a f f and in m ate g ro u p s. Em phasis on o b ed ien ce and con f o rm ity . E f f e c t i v e Use o f Group T ech n iq u es 1 . Heavy s t r u c t u r a l e m p h a sis, l i t t l e a t t e n t i o n to g ro u p phenomena p e r s e . D evelopm ent o f C o lla b o r a tiv e S o c ia l System 1 . L i t t l e a p p a re n t c o n c e rn w ith c o lla b o r a tio n betw een o f fe n d e r s and s t a f f . Com m unications a r e d i r e c t i v e . L in k ag e w ith Community 1 . L i t t l e o r no lin k a g e w ith commun ity * 60 th a n s t r e s s i n g s e l f - s u f f i c i e n e e and i s o l a t i o n from th e com m u n ity » i t r e q u ir e d d e lin q u e n ts to p a r t i c i p a t e i n le g itim a te community a c t i v i t i e s i n o rd e r to h e lp them w ith t h e i r p ro b lem s o f a d ju stm e n t and to a s s i s t them i n m a in ta in in g rew ard in g y n o n d e lin q u e n t p a t t e r n s o f b e h a v io r* CHAPTER III RESEARCH RESIGN1 She developm ent o f a r e s e a r c h d e s ig n r e q u ir e d a t t e n t i o n to f o u r m a jo r i s s u e s : (1 ) th e s e le c t io n o f an o v e r a l l r e s e a r c h m odel; (2 ) th e p o p u la tio n from w hich sub j e c t s w ould he ch o sen ; (3 ) random assig n m e n t o f ex p erim en t a l and c o n tr o l g ro u p s; and (* * ■ ) th e m easurem ent d e s ig n . These f o u r i s s u e s a re d is c u s s e d b elo w , fo llo w e d by th e k in d s o f s p e c ia l p ro b lem s e n c o u n te re d i n e x p e rim e n ts o f t h i s n a t u r e . O v e ra ll R ese a rc h Model T here i s a w ide v a r i e t y o f r e s e a r c h m odels a v a i l a b le to th e s o c ia l s c i e n t i s t — p a n e l d e s ig n s , f i e l d s t u d i e s , p a r t i c i p a n t o b s e r v a tio n , su rv e y d e s ig n s , la b o r a to iy e x p e r i m e n ts, o r " e x -p o s t f a c t o " e x p e rim e n ts— a l l o f w hich have b een u s e d i n th e s tu d y o f s o c ia l phenom ena. The s e le c t io n o f one o f th e s e m odels i s u s u a lly d ep en d en t upon th e ty p e o f r e s e a r c h p roblem s to be a d d re s s e d , c o u p led w ith th e id i o s y n c r a t i c i n t e r e s t s o f th e i n v e s t i g a t o r . No m a tte r w hat th e r e s e a r c h d e s ig n , how ever, s o c ia l s c i e n t i s t s te n d 1 The b u lk o f t h i s c h a p te r i s a sum m arized v e r s io n o f Empey, Lubeck and Newland (1 9 6 9 J C h a p te rs XI and X I I ) . 61 62 to be i n agreem ent on one m ajo r p o in t: th e i d e a l r e s e a r c h m odel i s one w hich a llo w s th e s c i e n t i s t th e g r e a t e s t amount o f c o n tr o l o v e r th e phenomena he i s i n v e s t i g a t i n g a n d , a t th e same tim e , a llo w s f o r maximum g e n e r a l i z a b i l i t y to some u n iv e r s e o f s o c ia l b e h a v io r . T hus, any s o c i a l - s c i e n t i f i c i n v e s t i g a t i o n can be e v a lu a te d a c c o rd in g to two g e n e r a l c r i t e r i a : i n t e r n a l v a l i d i t y and e x te r n a l v a l i d i t y (C am p b ell, 1957; W ig g in s, 1 9 6 8 :3 9 0 ~ ^ 2 7 ). I . I I n t e r n a l v a l i d i t y r e f e r s to th e e x te n t to w hich an i n v e s t i g a t o r e x e r c is e s d i r e c t c o n tr o l o v e r th e v a r i a b l e s he i s s tu d y in g and th e e x t e n t to w hich h i s e m p iric a l c o n c lu s io n s a r e d i r e c t l y a t t r i b u t a b l e to d e m o n stra te d r e l a t i o n s h ip s among th o s e v a r i a b l e s . F o r ex am p le, suppose he w ish ed t o t e s t th e h y p o th e s is t h a t a s p e c i f i c v a r ia b le ! c au se d ch an g es i n d e lin q u e n t a t t i t u d e s . I n o rd e r f o r th e t e s t o f h i s h y p o th e s is t o have i n t e r n a l v a l i d i t y , he w ould have to do a t l e a s t th r e e th i n g s . F i r s t , he w ould hav e to in s u r e t h a t h i s in d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e — h i s change s tim u lu s — w as, i n f a c t , p u t i n t o e f f e c t . S econd, he w ould have to docum ent any ch an g es t h a t o c c u rre d . And, t h i r d , he w ould have to d e m o n stra te t h a t any o b serv ed ch an g es w ere due to th e in d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e and n o t to o th e r f a c t o r s . To th e e x te n t t h a t he f a i l e d to do any o f th e s e t h i n g s , th e i n t e r n a l v a l i d i t y o f h i s stu d y would be lo w e re d . Some r e s e a r c h m o d e ls, su ch a s th e la b o r a to r y 63 e x p e rim e n t, a re d e s ig n e d w ith th e e x p re s s p u rp o se o f o p tim iz in g th e r e s e a r c h e r 's c o n tr o l o v e r th e s e th r e e s t e p s , e s p e c i a l l y to m inim ize th e e f f e c t s o f v a r i a b l e s o v e r w hich he h a s no c o n t r o l. C o n v e rs e ly , o th e r m o d e ls, su ch a s o p in io n p o l l s and s u rv e y s t u d i e s , te n d to l i m i t i n t e r n a l v a l i d i t y b ecau se o f th e d i f f i c u l t y o f d i r e c t c o n tr o l and m a n ip u la tio n by th e r e s e a r c h e r . E x te r n a l v a l i d i t y , on th e o th e r h a n d , r e f e r s to th e j r e p r e s e n ta tiv e n e s s o r g e n e r a l ! z a b i l i t y o f a g iv e n s tu d y . j In th e above ex am p le, c o n c e rn w ould be w ith th e e x te n t to w hich th e i n v e s t i g a t o r c o u ld g e n e r a liz e from h i s f in d in g s to some l a r g e r p o p u la tio n o f d e lin q u e n ts . U n less th e stu d y in v o lv e d some d e f in a b le and r e p r e s e n t a t i v e g ro u p , th e j i e x te r n a l v a l i d i t y o f th e s tu d y w ould be lo w . I t w ould be I im p o s s ib le to a s s e s s , w ith a c c u ra c y , th e d e g ree to w hich j th e f in d in g s m ight a p p ly to o th e r s . A lth o u g h b o th ty p e s o f v a l i d i t y p r e s e n t im p o rta n t re q u ire m e n ts f o r any s c i e n t i f i c s tu d y , i t m ost o f te n tu r n s o u t t h a t th e y a re in c o m p a tib le . I f one i s to o p tim iz e i n t e r n a l v a l i d i t y th ro u g h th e u s e o f s t r i n g e n t c o n t r o l s , a s i s o f te n found i n la b o r a to r y e x p e rim e n ts , th e m e a n in g fu l g e n e r a l i z a t i o n o f r e s u l t s to th e b e h a v io r o f p e o p le i n non la b o r a to r y s e t t i n g s becom es p r o b le m a tic . On th e o th e r h an d , i f one i s t o o p tim iz e e x t e r n a l v a l i d i t y by s e le c t in g r e p r e s e n ta ti v e sam ples i n r e a l l i f e s e t t i n g s — ch o sen th ro u g h e la b o r a te sam pling p ro c e d u re s — i t becom es d i f f i c u l t to e x e r c is e r i g i d , i n t e r n a l c o n tr o ls o v e r w h a te v e r r e l a t i o n s h ip s a re o b s e rv e d . T h u s, many s tu d ie s i n th e b e h a v io r a l s c ie n c e s f a l l in to one o f two c l a s s e s : e i t h e r th e y a r e p erfo rm ed i n e x p e rim e n ta l l a b o r a t o r i e s , i n w hich c ase i n t e r n a l v a l i d i t y i s m axim ized a t th e expense o f e x t e r n a l v a l i d i t y , and a su b se q u e n t l o s s i n g e n e r a l i z a b i l i t y , o r th e y em ploy s u rv e y -ty p e d e s ig n s , w ith c a r e f u l l y p la n n e d sa m p lin g , i n w hich th e r e v e r s e o c c u r s . E x te r n a l v a l i d i t y i s m axim ized b u t i n t e r n a l v a l i d i t y i s d e c re a s e d . The a b i l i t y to c o n tr o l th e e f f e c t s o f im p o rta n t v a r i a b l e s i s l o s t . T h is p r e s e n ts an im p o rta n t dilemma w ith w hich a l l s o c ia l s c i e n t i s t s m ust co p e. T here i s no e a s y s o lu tio n and o f te n th e r e s e a r c h e r m ust make a dichotom ous c h o ic e a s to w hich ty p e o f v a l i d i t y i s m ost im p o rta n t f o r h i s p a r t i c u l a r s tu d y . T h is was th e c a s e i n th e S ilv e r la k e E xperim ent b u t , b ecau se a f i e l d e x p e rim e n ta l m odel was ch o sen upon w hich to b u ild th e r e s e a r c h d e s ig n , th e E x p erim en t f e l l somewhere b etw een th e h o rn s o f th e i n t e r n a l v s . e x te r n a l dilem m a. The re a s o n i s t h a t a " f i e l d e x p e rim e n t" i s a s p e c i a l ty p e o f s o c ia l r e s e a r c h w hich i s c o n d u c te d i n n a t u r a l i s t i c s o c ia l s e t t i n g s (F re n c h , 1953)* The i n v e s t i g a t o r a tte m p ts to m a n ip u la te and a s c e r t a i n th e e f f e c t s o f c e r t a i n num bers o f v a r i a b l e s a s th e y o c c u r i n a n o rm a l, s o c ia l e n v iro n m e n t. He d o es n o t r e l y t o t a l l y on sam p lin g and s t a t i s t i c a l o p e r a tio n s to 65 a s s e s s c a u s a l r e l a t i o n s , n o r d o es he r e l y on th e o f ttim e s a r t i f i c i a l atm osphere o f th e e x p e rim e n ta l la b o r a to r y . H is g o a l, i n s t e a d , i s to m axim ize b o th i n t e r n a l and e x te r n a l v a l i d i t y i f he can do so — t h a t i s , to m axim ize e x t e r n a l v a l i d i t y by s tu d y in g th e b e h a v io r o f p eo p le i n t h e i r n a t u r a l h a b i t a t s a n d , a t th e same tim e , to m axim ize i n t e r - | n a l v a l i d i t y th ro u g h th e a p p lic a tio n o f some e x p e rim e n ta l c o n t r o l s . The f i e l d m odel u s e d i n th e S ilv e r la k e E x p e rim e n t, when s t a t e d i n a b s t r a c t te rm s , a p p e a rs to be v e ry s im p le — d e c e p tiv e ly s im p le . A g ro u p o f d e lin q u e n ts was s e le c t e d and ex p o sed to a s p e c ia l s e t o f e x p e rim e n ta l s tim u li w hich w ere h y p o th e s iz e d to c r e a te s p e c i f i c , o b s e rv a b le ch an g es in j i d e lin q u e n t a t t i t u d e s and b e h a v io r. A new and t h e o r e t i e a l l y j d e sig n e d program was c r e a te d and lo c a te d i n a r e s i d e n t i a l j n e ig h b o rh o o d o f an u rb a n com m unity. The program was m e d ia to ry i n n a tu r e i n t h a t e f f o r t s w ere made to a v o id th e e f f e c t s o f t o t a l i n s t i t u t i o n a l i z a t i o n and to b e t t e r i n t e g r a t e th e o f fe n d e r g ro u p s i n th e n o rm al i n s t i t u t i o n s o f th e com m unity. A c o n tr o l g ro u p , by c o n t r a s t , was a ls o s e le c te d and ex p o sed to a d i f f e r e n t s e t o f program s t i m u l i , s tim u li w hich w ere more t r a d i t i o n a l i n n a t u r e . An a lr e a d y - e x i s t i n g t o t a l i n s t i t u t i o n , s p a t i a l l y i s o l a t e d from th e com m unity, was u s e d i n w hich to house and t r e a t th e c o n tr o l 66 g ro u p . S in ce th e two program s w ere d i f f e r e n t , b o th i n term s o f p h y s ic a l l o c a t i o n and program s t r a t e g y , i t was hoped t h a t th e e x p e rim e n ta l d e s ig n w ould e n a b le some a s se ssm e n t o f t h e i r r e l a t i v e e f f e c t i v e n e s s . I f s i g n i f i c a n tly d i f f e r e n t r e s u l t s c o u ld be docum ented, th e n th e r e w ould be g ro u n d s f o r a t t r i b u t i n g su ch r e s u l t s to d i f f e r e n c e s i n program d e s ig n . As m entioned a b o v e , h o w ev er, t h i s f i e l d m odel i s d e c e p tiv e i n i t s seem ing s im p l i c i t y . I t d o es n o t b e g in to d e s c rib e th e com plex t a s k o f a tte m p tin g to i s o l a t e th e s p e c i f i c e f f e c t s o f su ch s t i m u l i , n o r th e pro b lem s o f a c h ie v in g b o th i n t e r n a l and e x t e r n a l v a l i d i t y . Many com p ro m ises w ere r e q u ir e d w hich made b o th e x p e rim e n ta l c o n tr o l f and g e n e r a l i z a b i l i t y d i f f i c u l t . P o p u la tio n and Sample S e le c tio n The m anner i n w hich s u b je c ts w ere ch o sen f o r th e E x p erim en t d i r e c t l y a f f e c t e d th e g e n e r a l i z a b i l i t y , and th u s th e e x te r n a l v a l i d i t y , o f i t s f in d i n g s . I n i d e a l te rm s , s u b je c ts sh o u ld have b een ch o sen i n su ch a m anner t h a t th e y r e p r e s e n te d some l a r g e r p o p u la tio n , su ch a s a l l d e lin q u e n ts i n a g iv e n c i t y , c o u n ty o r s t a t e . I n o r d e r to have accom p lis h e d t h i s , th e l a r g e r p o p u la tio n m ust have b een c a r e f u l l y d e fin e d and s u b je c ts s e le c te d random ly from i t . U s u a lly t h i s i s done i n su ch a way t h a t a l l members o f th e p o p u la tio n have an e q u a l chance o f b e in g c h o s e n . I f 67 t h i s p ro c e d u re i s fo llo w e d , th e n p r o b a b i li t y s t a t i s t i c s can be u s e d t o make in f e r e n c e s a b o u t th e l a r g e r p o p u la tio n from w hich th e s m a lle r sam ple was c h o se n . I f , on th e o th e r hand, s u b je c ts a re n o t sam pled from some l a r g e r and w e ll- d e f in e d p o p u la tio n , th e n e x t e r n a l v a l i d i t y i s lo w ered and g e n e r a l- i z a b i l i t y i s d i f f i c u l t . i P r a c t i c a l c o n d itio n s i n th e S ilv e r la k e E x p erim en t j made d i f f i c u l t th e t a s k o f in s u r in g e x t e r n a l v a l i d i t y . In j o r d e r to a c h ie v e c o o p e r a tio n w ith th e B o y s' fie p u b lic a s th e J s p o n so rin g agency and w ith o th e r a g e n c ie s i n th e ju v e n ile j u s t i c e sy ste m , i t was n e c e s s a ry to ch oose e x p e rim e n ta l and c o n tr o l g ro u p s from th e a v a ila b le p o p u la tio n o f d e lin q u e n ts t h a t w ere b e in g a s s ig n e d to th e B oys' fie p u b lic . A lth o u g h I d e lin q u e n ts w ere a s s ig n e d to B oys' fie p u b lic from a l l o v e r i th e S ta te o f C a l i f o r n i a , th e y were n o t n e c e s s a r i l y re p re s e n t a t i v e o f a l l d e lin q u e n ts i n C a l i f o r n i a , fu rth e r m o re , s in c e a m ajo r p u rp o se o f th e E xp erim en t was to s e t up a community program c lo s e to th e homes o f i t s s u b j e c t s , i t was im p o ssi b le to ch oose o ffe n d e r s from a l l o v er th e s t a t e . No s in g le program c o u ld be i n c lo s e p ro x im ity to th e homes and n e ig h b o rh o o d s o f a l l i t s c l i e n t s i f th e y r e p r e s e n te d a s ta te - w id e p o p u la tio n . T h e re fo re , th e d e c is io n was made to in c lu d e o n ly boys from Los A n g eles County* I n o r d e r to q u a lif y f o r i n c l u s i o n , e a c h s u b je c t had to conform to th r e e b a s ic c r i t e r i a : ( 1 ) he m ust have b een a 68 r e s i d e n t o f Los A ngeles County; ( 2 ) he m ust have b een betw een th e a g es o f 15 1 /2 and 18 y e a r s ; and (3 ) be m ust n o t have been s e r io u s ly p s y c h o tic , m e n ta lly r e t a r d e d , a co n firm ed n a r c o t i c s a d d ic t o r a s e r io u s s e x u a l o f f e n d e r . Even w ith th e s e c r i t e r i a , h o w ev er, g e n e r a l i z a b i l i t y j was d i f f i c u l t s in c e , i n s e le c t in g boys f o r p lacem en t a t B oys' R e p u b lic , n e i t h e r th e J u v e n ile C o u rt n o r th e Los A n g eles County P ro b a tio n D epartm ent u s e d random s e le c t i o n . I n s te a d , th e y p la c e d boys a c c o rd in g to w hat th e y f e l l w ere th e in d iv id u a l n e e d s o f th e o f fe n d e r s in v o lv e d . U n d o u b te d ly , t h e r e f o r e , i d i o s y n c r a t i c f a c t o r s came i n t o p la y w hich in tro d u c e d p o s s ib le b ia s i n t o s e le c t io n p ro c e d u r e s . F u rth e rm o re , th e B oys' R e p u b lic , i t s e l f , im posed j an a d d i t i o n a l b u t l e s s s p e c i f i c c r i t e r i o n w hich f u r t h e r li m i t e d g e n e r a l i z a b i l i t y . The Boys' R e p u b lic so u g h t to m a in ta in an e th n ic b a l ance i n i t s program s w hich conform ed more to th e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f e th n ic g ro u p s w ith in th e g e n e r a l County p o p u la tio n ! th a n w ith in th e o f f e n d e r p o p u la tio n . T hus, th e p o p u la tio n o f o f fe n d e r s u se d i n t h i s stu d y was a p p ro x im a te ly t h r e e - q u a r te r s C a u c a sia n , o n e - te n th Negro and o n e - te n th M exican A m erican, to w hich was added a t i n y p e rc e n ta g e o f O r ie n ta ls . T h is c o rre sp o n d e d c l o s e ly to th e e th n ic breakdow n o f th e Los A n g eles County p o p u la tio n w h ich , a t th e tim e o f th e s tu d y , was 8 0 .8 p e r c e n t C a u c a sia n , 7 .6 p e r c e n t N eg ro , and 69 9*6 p e r c e n t M exican-A m erican (P ru e d e n b e rg and S t r e e t , 1 9 6 5 :7 ). T h is o v e r a ll p o p u la tio n breakdow n a f f e c t e d th e E x p e rim e n t so t h a t i t s p o p u la tio n te n d e d to conform to th e s e p r o p o r tio n s , and n o t to th e d e lin q u e n t p o p u la tio n o f Los A n g eles County i n g e n e r a l . T h u s, b ecau se o f th e s e l i m i t i n g c o n d itio n s , th e s u b je c ts o f t h i s E xp erim en t do n o t n e c e s s a r i l y r e p r e s e n t th e l a r g e r Los A n g eles County p o p u la t i o n , o r any o th e r l a r g e r p o p u la tio n , o f d e lin q u e n ts . The e x t e r n a l v a l i d i t y o f th e s tu d y , a s a r e s u l t , i s l i m i t e d . I f e x p e rim e n ta l r e s o u r c e s had been d ir e c te d to w ard o p tim iz in g sam p lin g p r o c e d u re s , t h i s w ould have b e en done a t th e ex p en se o f n e g le c tin g im p o rta n t a s p e c ts o f th e e x p e rim e n ta l d e s ig n . Such p ro b le m s, o f c o u r s e , a re i n h e r e n t i n a lm o st any r e s e a r c h e n d e a v o r w here i t becom es i n e c e s s a r y t o com prom ise betw een th e demands im posed by o p tim a l r e s e a r c h d e s ig n on th e one h a n d , and b u d g e ta ry , tim e , and s t a f f l i m i t a t i o n s on th e o t h e r . E ut th e y a r e p ro b a b ly a t t h e i r h i g h e s t l e v e l i n a f i e l d e x p e rim e n t o f j t h i s ty p e w here a t t e n t i o n m ust be d e v o te d n o t o n ly to r e s e a r c h p ro b le m s, b u t to th e ru n n in g o f a d i f f i c u l t p ro gram a s w e l l . Random A ssignm ent and I n t e r n a l V a lid ity On th e o th e r h a n d , th e p ro b le m s o f i n t e r n a l v a l i d i t y a re l e s s s e r i o u s . The re a s o n i s t h a t th e t o t a l p o p u la t i o n o f o f fe n d e r s from Los A ngeles C ounty, a s s ig n e d to th e 70 B o y s 'R e p u b lic , were random ly a s s ig n e d e i t h e r to th e e x p e r i m e n ta l o r th e c o n tr o l p ro g ram . T h is u s e o f ra n d o m iz a tio n was a m eans o f in c r e a s in g th e i n t e r n a l v a l i d i t y o f th e E x p erim en t b ecau se i t s e rv e d to c o n tr o l th e e f f e c t s o f a la r g e num ber o f i n d iv id u a l d if f e r e n c e s by in s u r in g t h a t th e boys a s s ig n e d to e i t h e r program w ere s im i l a r a t th e tim e o f t h e i r a ssig n m e n t. R . A. F is h e r (1 9 5 1 ), one o f th e p ro m in en t f ig u r e s i n th e developm ent o f e x p e rim e n ta l d e s ig n , h a s p o in te d o u t t h a t : . . . th e u n c o n tr o lle d c a u s e s w hich may in flu e n c e th e r e s u l t [ o f an e x p e rim e n t] a re alw ays s t r i c t l y in n u m e ra b le . When any su ch c au se i s nam ed, i t i s u s u a l l y p e rc e iv e d t h a t , by in c r e a s e d la b o u r and e x p e n s e , i t c o u ld be la r g e l y e lim in a te d . Too f r e q u e n tly i t i s assum ed t h a t su ch re fin e m e n ts con s t i t u t e im provem ents to th e e x p e rim e n t. . . . What e v e r d e g re e o f c a r e and e x p e rim e n ta l s k i l l i s expended i n e q u a lis in g th e c o n d itio n s , o th e r th a n th e one u n d e r t e s t , w hich a r e l i a b l e to a f f e c t th e r e s u l t , t h i s e q u a l i s a t i o n m ust alw ay s be to a g r e a t e r o r l e s s e x t e n t in c o m p le te , and i n many im p o rta n t p r a c t i c a l o a s e s w i l l c e r t a i n l y be g r o s s ly d e f e c t i v e . . . . The sim p le p re c a u tio n o f ra n d o m is a tio n w i l l s u f f i c e to g u a ra n te e th e v a l i d i t y o f th e t e s t o f s ig n i f i c a n c e , by w hich th e r e s u l t o f th e e x p e rim e n t i s to be ju d g e d . T h u s, a lth o u g h random a ssig n m e n t i s by no means a m ethod o f g u a r a n te e in g p e r f e c t c o n t r o l , i t i s th e b e s t means by w hich to in s u r e t h a t any e v e n tu a l d if f e r e n c e s betw een exp erim en t a l and c o n tr o l program s a re due to program d if f e r e n c e s and n o t to i n i t i a l and u n c o n tr o lle d d if f e r e n c e s among s u b je c ts th e m s e lv e s . The i n i t i a l e x p e rim e n ta l d e s ig n c a l l e d f o r s t r i c t 71 random assignm ent to experim ental and c o n tro l groups. D espite the elab orate ste p s taken to m aintain t h is d e sig n , however, d i f f i c u l t i e s were encountered which might be in s tr u c tiv e fo r those who w ish to conduct experim ents in oth er c o r r e c tio n a l and f i e l d s e t t in g s . These d i f f i c u l t i e s r e fle c te d the problems th a t were in h eren t in attem pting to | m aintain s c i e n t if i c g o a ls and to meet the demands o f two ! a c tio n programs a t the same tim e, th a t i s , to r e c o n c ile sound, m ethodological research w ith sound, programmatic fu n c tio n s . The d is p o s itio n s o f the ju v e n ile court do not always adequately take in to account the bed space a v a ila b le in c o r r e c tio n a l programs. In a n tic ip a tio n o f t h is prob lem—the p o s s ib ilit y th a t the court m ight a ssig n too many, or not enough, boys to f i l l the needs o f the experim ent— p lan s were made so th a t the co n tro l in s t it u t io n could be used as a temporary h old in g p la c e , on o cca sio n , u n t il space was a v a ila b le fo r assignm ent e ith e r to the experim ental or c o n tro l program. However, t h is plan proved to be unwork ab le . The primary reason fo r i t s fa ilu r e was th a t the task o f h old in g experim ental b oys, even fo r a sh ort p e r io d , was d isru p tiv e to the o v e r a ll program a t the co n tro l i n s t i t u t io n . I t could n ot be run e f f e c t iv e ly w ith some boys sta y in g only a m atter o f days or weeks before being assign ed to the experim ental program. Furthermore, we were 72 concerned th a t the in te r a c tio n o f experim ental hoys w ith hoys a t the co n tro l in s t it u t io n might contaminate the v a lid it y o f our research d e sig n . Boys assign ed to the Experiment might he ad versely a ffe c te d hy th e ir sh ort exp erien ce a t the c o n tr o l in s t it u t io n . T herefore, t h is pro cedure was abandoned sh o r tly a ft e r i t s adoption. A second problem was in h eren t in the fa c t th a t, hy d e sig n , hoys stayed a much sh o rter period o f time a t the exp erim en tal, community resid en ce than a t the co n tro l i n s t i t u t i o n , an average o f s ix versu s th ir te e n months. This d if f e r e n t ia l turnover rate created an im balance. O n some o c c a sio n s, the la rg e number o f hoys required fo r the experim ental group threatened to d ep lete the c o n tro l popu- ; | la t io n , w hile a t other tim es the c o n tro l program was over loaded and the experim ental group was threatened hy deple t io n . Both programs req uired a c e r ta in quota o f hoys to operate a t optimum e f f ic ie n c y and im balances were not always p red icta b le and c o n tr o lla b le . In an e f f o r t to remedy the s itu a t io n , a second d esign was s e t up . Regular intak e procedures were main ta in e d , excep t th a t in ste a d o f le a v in g the experim ental group a t the co n tro l in s t it u t io n fo r a sh ort period o f tim e, both groups were se le c te d randomly from ju v e n ile h a ll im m ediately a fte r court d is p o s itio n , furtherm ore, in order to compensate fo r the d if f e r e n t ia l r a te s o f r e le a s e , the 73 in ta k e f o r th e e x p e rim e n ta l re s id e n c e was in c r e a s e d to 60 p e r c e n t o f th e e l i g i b l e p o p u la tio n , w h ile t h a t f o r th e c o n tr o l g ro u p was d ro p p ed to * + 0 p e r c e n t . A g ain , how ever, t h i s d e s ig n p roved in a d e q u a te f o r many o f th e same r e a s o n s . There was s t i l l a s h o rta g e o f bed sp ac e a t th e m ain campus f o r th e c o n tr o l g ro u p , and th e p o p u la tio n a t th e experim en t a l r e s id e n c e k e p t d w in d lin g to sm a ll num bers. T here was no e a sy s o lu tio n to t h i s p ro b le m . I t became c l e a r t h a t i f th e in te r v e n tio n s tr a te g y w ere to be t e s t e d a d e q u a te ly , some o th e r m ethod o f s e l e c t i o n would h av e to be d e v is e d . As a f i n a l r e s o r t , random s e l e c t i o n p ro c e d u re s on r a r e o c c a s io n s w ere r e la x e d , e s p e c i a l l y i n th e i n t e r e s t o f th e e x p e rim e n ta l program . When th e num ber o f s u b je c ts d e c lin e d to su ch a low num ber a s to s e r io u s ly a f f e c t th e q u a lity o f th e g ro u p p ro g ram , random s e l e c t i o n was ig n o re d and s e v e r a l boys w ere ta k e n a l l a t o n c e . The problem was sim ply t h a t o f e i t h e r a l t e r i n g s e le c t io n p ro c e d u re s o r d e s tr o y in g th e program c u l t u r e to w hich so much a t t e n t i o n had been p a i d . I t was f e l t t h a t , i f t h i s c u ltu r e were a llo w e d to l a p s e , e x p e rim e n ta l c o n d itio n s c o u ld n o t be m a in ta in e d . T hus, a dilem m a was c r e a te d w hich th r e a te n e d e i t h e r th e e x p e rim e n ta l o r th e t h e o r e t i c a l d e s ig n . A l o s s o f e i t h e r m ig h t d e s tr o y th e q u a lity o f th e E x p e rim e n t. There was no o b v io u s way o u t and a r e s o l u t i o n was w orked o u t In f a v o r o f m a in ta in in g th e p o p u la tio n a t th e e x p e rim e n ta l 7*+ r e s id e n c e , a t th e c o s t o f an o c c a s io n a l la p s e i n random s e l e c t i o n . I t a p p e a r s , h o w ev er, t h a t th e o c c a s io n a l i n t e r r u p t i o n o f random s e le c t io n was n o t s e r i o u s ly d e tr im e n ta l (1 ) b e ca u se such i n t e r r u p t i o n s w ere n o t common, and (2 ) b e c a u se a c a r e f u l co m p ariso n o f th e e x p e rim e n ta l and c o n tr o l g ro u p s i n d ic a te d t h a t c o m p a r a b ility was n o t l o s t , j I An a n a ly s is o f th e s e two g ro u p s on a h o s t o f v a r i a b l e s — a g e , m o b ility , fa m ily s t r u c t u r e , s o c i a l s t a t u s , p a r e n t a l j harm ony, b o y -p a re n t r e l a t i o n s , sc h o o l i n t e r e s t s , sc h o o l p a r t i c i p a t i o n , g r a d e s , a s p i r a t i o n s , w ork e x p e r ie n c e , r e l i g i o u s p r e f e r e n c e , e t h n i c i t y , o ffe n s e h i s t o i y , and p s y c h o lo g ic a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s — r e v e a le d vexy few d i f f e r e n c e s . I n f a c t , o n ly 6 o u t o f n e a r ly 100 co m p ariso n s a c h ie v e d s t a t i s t i c a l s ig n if ic a n c e p a s t th e .0 5 l e v e l . The s tr o n g e s t o f th e s e s i x d i f f e r e n c e s , (P < .0 0 1 ) had to do w ith th e ty p e s o f p re v io u s c o u r t d i s p o s i t i o n s j e n c o u n te re d by s u b je c ts b e fo re t h e i r a ssig n m e n t to one o f | th e two g ro u p s . T hree th in g s a re o f im p o rta n c e s 1 . A bout o n e - th ir d o f th e boys a s s ig n e d to th e e x p e rim e n ta l program had p r e v io u s ly b een in c a r c e r a te d i n a c o u n ty p r o b a tio n camp w h ile , a t th e c o n t r o l i n s t i t u t i o n , th e f ig u r e was much ^ In a s s e s s in g sam ple c o m p a r a b ility , c h i- s q u a r e o r t - t e s t s w ere u s e d , d ep en d in g on th e l e v e l o f m easurem ent in v o lv e d i n th e c o m p a riso n . 75 s m a lle r , 7 p e r c e n t . 2 . The m a jo r ity o f th e boys a s s ig n e d to th e con t r o l i n s t i t u t i o n , 5^ p e r c e n t, had p r e v io u s ly b een on p r o b a tio n , w h ile th e f ig u r e f o r th e m e d ia to ry program was o n ly 35 p e r c e n t. 3 . The c o n t r o l program was more l i k e l y th a n th e e x p e rim e n ta l program to r e c e iv e boys w ith o u t any r e c o rd o f p r o b a tio n o r p re v io u s in c a r c e r a t i o n . T hus, on th e b a s is o f p r i o r d i s p o s i t i o n , i t seems t h a t th e e x p e r im e n ta l, community program in a d v e r t e n t ly may have been a s s ig n e d more s e r i o u s , o r a t l e a s t more e x p e rie n c e d , o f f e n d e r s . I t was a ls o fo u n d t h a t a h ig h e r p r o p o rtio n o f boys from th e c o n tr o l group c la im e d to be m ore i n t e r e s t e d i n sc h o o l (P < *01), w ere y o u n g e r i n a g e , i f and when th e y l e f t sc h o o l (P < .0 5 ) , h ad a jo b when th e y were a s s ig n e d to B o y s'R e p u b lic (P < .0 5 ) , and w ere more l i k e l y to have p a r t i c i p a t e d i n e x t r a c u r r i c u l a r sc h o o l a c t i v i t i e s o f a n o n - a t h l e t i c n a tu r e (P < .0 5 ) . F i n a l l y , a lth o u g h b o th g ro u p s te n d e d to come from d is r u p te d f a m i l i e s , a h ig h e r p r o p o r tio n o f e x p e rim e n ta l boys came from d iv o rc e d f a m i l i e s , w h ile th e c o n t r o ls w ere more l i k e l y to have p a r e n ts who w ere e i t h e r s e p a r a te d o r widowed (P < .0 5 ) . N e v e r th e le s s , g iv e n th e num ber o f v a r i a b l e s t h a t w ere exam in ed , and g iv e n th e law s 76 o f p r o b a b ility , one m ight expect t h is many d iffe r e n c e s to occur by chance. In the main, th e r e fo r e , the groups appeared to be very much a lik e . There i s one fu r th e r fin d in g th a t i s rea ssu rin g . B esid es comparing the experim ental and co n tro l groups w ith each o th e r , both groups were compared w ith them selves over tim e. T his was done in order to determ ine i f boys were d iffe r e n t when the program s ta r te d , from boys who were in volved in the middle and la t t e r y ea rs o f the program. In an ongoing, experim ental s e t t in g , the p o s s ib ilit y i s presen t th a t the nature o f the pop u lation may change over time and th a t t h is might a lso have a b ia sin g e f f e c t on experim ental outcome. Again, the fin d in g s str e s se d group s im ila r ity , n o t d iffe r e n c e . For the e n tir e three y ea rs o f j the stu d y, both the experim ental and co n tro l programs appear to have been working w ith boys whose background and p sy ch o lo g ica l dim ensions were e s s e n t ia lly the same. Measurement Design The fourth component o f the research stru ctu re con s is t e d o f a measurement d e sig n . Research was s e t up to gather data in three major areas: (1 ) data on program input having to do w ith the c h a r a c te r is tic s o f offen d ers a t the time o f th e ir assignm ent to experim ental and c o n tro l programs which could be used to c la s s if y them and to examine the cau sation theory; (2 ) data on program p rocess 77 which could he used to examine the attem pts th a t were made to implement the change p o stu la te s o f the Experiment and to explore the problems th a t emerged; and (3) data on program outcome which could be used to measure the impact o f the I program on the b oys, the s t a f f and the community. The o b je c tiv e s fo r such a body o f research were the development o f b e tte r knowledge by which to c la s s i f y and p red ict the behavior o f offen d ers and to in d ic a te the e ffe c tiv e n e s s o f i two d iffe r e n t c o r r e c tio n a l a lte r n a tiv e s fo r d iffe r e n t types! o f b oys. Input Measures Input research was concerned w ith the c a r e fu l study o f the c h a r a c te r is tic s o f the boys a t the time o f th e ir | i assignm ent to the experim ental and c o n tro l programs. E ffo r ts were made to c o ll e c t inform ation th a t could be used to examine the theory o f delinquency ca u sa tio n , presen ted in Chapter I I . 'E y way o f illu s t r a t in g the combined e f f o r t both to t e s t p o stu la te s and b e tte r c la s s if y d elin q u en ts, some o f the major p o s tu la te s are r e sta te d below and are follow ed by a gen eral d e sc r ip tio n o f the input data which were c o lle c te d to a s s e s s them. E ir s t , the p o stu la te th a t "lower s o c ia l c la s s r e s u lts in decreased achievement" was examined in terms o f a whole s e r ie s o f v a r ia b le s . The occupation o f each b o y 's fa th e r was used to co n stru ct a measure o f socioeconom ic 78 s t a tu s . Achievement was measured in terms o f a s e r ie s o f con ven tion al p u r s u its, in clu d in g grad es, a c t i v i t i e s and awards a t school as w e ll as su ccess in work. The second p o s tu la te , th a t "decreased achievem ent r e s u lt s in in creased str a in ," was examined in terms o f the above measures o f achievement as w e ll as sev era l in d ic a to r s ! o f s t r a in . These in d ic a to r s o f s tr a in inclu ded measures o f job i n s t a b i l i t y , sch ool dropout, fam ily problem s, s e l f - concept and p erceived chances o f a tta in in g occu pational a s p ir a tio n s . The J esn ess Inventoxy (J e s n e ss , 1963) was a lso used to measure the p er so n a lity c h a r a c te r is tic s o f d elin q u en ts in order to give fu rth er in d ic a tio n o f p o ssib le str a in on a p sy ch o lo g ic a l l e v e l. P o stu la te th r e e , which sta te d th a t "increased I str a in r e s u lt s in high id e n t if ic a t io n w ith delinquent p eers," was examined in terms o f a s p e c ia lly developed instrum ent designed to measure peer-group id e n t if ic a t io n and r e la tio n s h ip s . This instrum ent measured a boy’s eom- i mitment to h is p eers in both delin qu en t and nondelinquent s itu a t io n s . F in a lly , a c a r e fu l a n a ly sis o f court and p o lic e record s was made in order to examine the fourth p o s tu la te , which s ta te d th a t " id e n tific a tio n w ith delinquent p eers r e s u lt s in delinquency." The records check enabled u s to see whether gen eral p a ttern s o f delinquency h isto r y could 79 be i d e n t i f i e d , w h e th e r th e y c o u ld be r e l a t e d to th e p e r s o n a li t y and o th e r c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s m en tio n ed a b o v e , and w h e th er th e y c o u ld p r e d i c t p erfo rm an ce i n th e e x p e rim e n ta l and c o n t r o l p ro g ram s. I n a d d itio n to th e above m e a s u re s , th e o c c u p a tio n a l and e d u c a tio n a l a s p i r a t i o n s o f th e boys w ere s tu d ie d to see i n w hat way th e r e m ig h t be sh a rp c o n tr a d ic tio n s b etw een j a s p i r a t i o n s and ach iev em en t a s w e ll a s a s p ir a t i o n s and j b a c k g ro u n d . I n sum, th e in p u t r e s e a r c h o f th e S ilv e r la k e E x p e rim en t r e s u l t e d i n th e a c c u m u la tio n o f a la r g e m ass o f d a t a . I n o rd e r to h a n d le i t e f f i c i e n t l y , and i n o r d e r to p u rsu e th e problem o f c l a s s i f y i n g o f f e n d e r s , i t was n e c e s s a ry to se e i f many o f th e s e p a ra te ite m s o f in fo rm a tio n c o u ld be com bined i n some way to p ro v id e a more p a rs im o n i- | o us means f o r exam ining and p r e d ic tin g th e b e h a v io r o f s u b je c ts b o th w ith in th e program s and a f t e r r e l e a s e from th e p ro g ra m s. The s c a l e s and ty p o lo g ie s t h a t w ere d e v e l oped a r e a s fo llo w s : O ffen se S c a le s A ttem p ts w ere made i n t h i s s tu d y t o d ev elo p o ffe n s e s c a le s w hich w ould in c lu d e s e v e r a l d i f f e r e n t o f f e n s e s and w h ic h , a s a r e s u l t , m ig h t s e rv e a s a m eans o f r e l a t i n g o ffe n s e c a te g o r ie s to o th e r v a r i a b l e s . D ata f o r th e a n a ly s is w ere c o l l e c t e d from two m a jo r s o u rc e s : 80 Los A n g eles County P ro b a tio n r e c o r d s , and th e C e n tra l Ju v e n i l e In d ex w hich i s an in fo rm a tio n c e n t e r f o r law e n f o rc e m ent o f f i c i a l s , a d m in is te re d by th e S h e r if f o f Los A n g eles C ounty. In some c a s e s , th e r e was a d i s p a r i t y betw een th e s e two s o u rc e s i n t h a t one had more in fo rm a tio n th a n th e o th e r, b u t i n no c a s e s w ere th e r e any c o n t r a d i c t io n s . I t was f e l t , t h e r e f o r e , t h a t th e d a ta c o l l e c t e d from th e s e two s o u rc e s p ro v id e d a s a c c u r a te and com prehensive a p i c tu r e o f o f f i c i a l d e lin q u e n t h i s t o r i e s a s c o u ld be o b ta in e d . The m e th o d o lo g ic a l p ro c e s s in v o lv e d i n a tte m p tin g to d e v e lo p th e s e ty p o lo g ie s i s d e s c rib e d i n A ppendix A. S u f f ic e i t to say h e re t h a t , f i r s t , a F a c to r A n a ly s is was p erfo rm e d on s e le c te d co m b in a tio n s o f o f f e n s e s . Some o f j th e o f f e n s e s c l u s t e r e d to g e th e r i n d i s c e r n i b l e p a t t e r n s . i T h is was an e n c o u ra g in g developm ent and l e d to a seco n d s e r i e s o f s te p s . N e x t, an a tte m p t was made to u s e Guttman S c a lin g to see i f th e in d iv id u a l o f fe n s e s w hich c l u s t e r e d to g e th e r i n th e F a c to r A n a ly s is c o u ld be f a r t h e r c o n firm ed by th e s c a lin g p r o c e s s . I f i t was c o n firm e d , th e n th e b e h a v io r o f e a c h boy, r e le v a n t to th e s e o f f e n s e s , c o u ld be r e p r e s e n te d and re p ro d u c e d by know ledge o f a s in g le s c o r e . T h is a n a l y s is p ro v ed re w a rd in g a l s o , and th e p ro c e s s in v o lv e d i s a ls o d e s c rib e d i n A ppendix A. As a r e s u l t o f th e s c a lin g e f f o r t s , f iv e d i f f e r e n t 8 1 s c a le s w ere d ev elo p ed and a re p re s e n te d i n T ab le 3* A r b itr a r y names have b een a s s ig n e d to th e s e s c a l e s . I t w i l l be o b se rv e d t h a t some s c a le s in c lu d e o ffe n s e s w hich seem t o be l o g i c a l l y r e l a t e d such a s t h e f t o f v a r io u s ty p e s , w h ile o th e r s in c lu d e a v a r i e t y o f d i f f e r e n t o f f e n s e s w hich a re n o t n e c e s s a r i l y bound by l o g i c , o n ly by t h e i r e m p iric a l r e l a t i o n s h i p to each o t h e r . These o ffe n s e s c a le s w ere u s e d to c l a s s i f y boys i n th e e x p e rim e n ta l and c o n tr o l program s to se e i f th e s e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s had a n y th in g to do w ith t h e i r in -p ro g ra m and p o st-p ro g ra m p e rfo rm a n c e s . A ttem p ts w ere a ls o made to see i f th e s e s c a le s com bined i n some way w ith o th e r mea s u re s o f p e r s o n a lity and background to p r e d i c t b e h a v io r j a f t e r r e l e a s e from th e p ro g ram s. T here a re alw ay s s c i e n t i f i c q u e s tio n s r e g a rd in g th e v a l i d i t y o f such s c a l e s . Some o f th e s c a le s a r e m ethodo l o g i c a l l y weak b ecau se th e y in c lu d e a s few a s two o f f e n s e s . I t re m a in s to be s e e n , t h e r e f o r e , when g iv e n a p ra g m a tic i | t e s t , w h e th e r th e y w i l l r e l a t e w ith o th e r v a r i a b l e s i n ! e x p la in in g o r p r e d i c t in g b e h a v io r. I n a d d itio n to th e o ffe n s e s c a le s j u s t d e s c rib e d th e f o llo w in g f o u r m easu res o f o ffe n s e background w ere a ls o d e v e lo p e d , f i r s t , a m easure o f " h a b itu a ln e s s " was c r e a te d sim p ly by summing th e t o t a l num ber o f o f f i c i a l o f f e n s e s i n a g iv e n b o y 's b ack g ro u n d . S econd, th e le n g th o f tim e 82 TABLE 3 TYPES OP BEHAVIOR INCLUDE!) IN OPPENSE SCALES S c a le Name O ffe n se s In c lu d e d i n S c a le I . T h e ft S c a le P e tty T h e f t, Grand T h e f t, B re ak in g and E n te r in g , o r B u rg la ry I I . P e rs o n a l D iso rg an i z a t i o n S c a le Runaway from I n s t i t u t i o n , D e s titu t i o n , o r Bad Companions I I I . S t r e e t C o m er S c a le P ig h tin g o r A g g rav ated A s s a u lt, C urfew , A lco h o l IV . A utom obile S c a le Auto T h e f t, J o y r id in g , O th e r T r a f f ic O ffe n se s V. F am ily Problem s S c a le I n c o r r i g i b i l i t y , Runaway from Home 83 b etw een a g iv e n b o y 's l a s t o ffe n s e and h i s e n tra n c e to e i t h e r program was m e a su re d . T h ird , th e t o t a l num ber o f p re v io u s i n c a r c e r a ti o n s i n a c o r r e c t i o n a l f a c i l i t y w ere m easu red to g iv e an i n d i c a t i o n o f b o y s ' e x p e rie n c e s i n th e c o r r e c t i o n a l sy ste m . f o u r t h , an a tte m p t was made a ls o to d e v elo p a s c a le j o f o f fe n s e s e r io u s n e s s . T h is s c a le w as d e sig n e d to o b ta in some m easure o f th e way th e o f f i c i a l a g e n ts o f s o c ie ty — i n t h i s c a s e , law e n fo rc e m e n t a g e n c ie s and th e ju v e n ile c o u r ts — view d i f f e r e n t o f f e n s e s . T here i s n o th in g in h e r e n t i n a g iv e n a c t w hich m akes i t i l l e g a l . B a th e r, th e c r im i n a l i t y o f t h a t a c t i s d e f in e d by s o c ie ty and by law i n i a c tio n ( c f . D urkheim , 19 6 2 :1 7 0 ; B e c k e r, 1 9 6 3 :9 ; E r ik s o n , 1963 s307” 1^; and K its u s e , 1 9 6 2 :2 ^ 7 -5 6 ). T hus, i n a d d itio n j to know ing w hat o f f e n s e s boys com m it, we a r e a ls o i n n eed o f some id e a o f th e way th e law e n fo rc em e n t and th e c o u r ts view th em . Law e n fo rc e m e n t -ag en cie s and th e c o u r ts a r e th e l e g a l d e f in in g m ach in ery w hereby s o c i e t a l judgm ents a r e re n d e re d a g a in s t i n d i v i d u a l s . I t i s th e y who a r e th e m ost i n f l u e n t i a l a g e n ts o f s o c i a l c o n t r o l . A know ledge o f t h e i r v ie w s , t h e r e f o r e , c a n s e rv e a s an e m p iric a l m ethod by w hich to r a t e th e s e r io u s n e s s o f p a s t d e lin q u e n t o f f e n s e s . I n o rd e r to c o n s tr u c t th e S e rio u s n e s s S c a le , th e fo llo w in g s te p s w ere ta k e n . F i r s t , o f f i c i a l r e c o rd s w ere c a r e f u l l y s tu d ie d and a l i s t was made o f th i r t y - o n e Q h s e le c t e d o f fe n s e s w ith w hich ju v e n ile s a re m ost commonly c h a rg e d . T h is l i s t w as th e n s u b m itte d to o f f i c e r s o f th e J u v e n ile D iv is io n o f th e Los A n g eles P o lic e D ep artm en t, o f f i c e r s o f th e J u v e n ile D iv is io n o f th e Los A ngeles S h e r i f f 's D epartm ent and t h i r t e e n ju d g e s and r e f e r e e s o f th e Los A n g eles County J u v e n ile C o u rt. E ach o f f i c i a l was ask ed to r a t e th e th i r t y - o n e s e le c te d o f fe n s e s a lo n g a continuum o f s e r io u s n e s s , "0" r e p r e s e n tin g th e l e a s t s e r io u s c a te g o ry i n t o w hich an o ffe n s e c o u ld be p la c e d and "5 ,, th e m ost s e r i o u s . The r e s u l t o f th e r a t i n g s may be found i n T ab le ^ . I n t h a t t a b l e , o f f e n s e s a re ra n k e d i n th e o r d e r i n w hich a l l o f f i c i a l s , a s a g ro u p , r a t e d them . P a r e n t h e t i c a l l y , i t m ight be n o te d t h a t some d i f f e r e n c e s o c c u rre d . Ju d g es and r e f e r e e s , f o r ex am p le, a p p e a re d to be more t o l e r a n t th a n th e law e n fo rcem en t a g e n ts . N e v e r th e le s s , th e r e was a re a s o n a b ly h ig h d eg ree 3 o f ag reem en t among th e r a n k in g s . T h is s c a le p ro v id e d a means f o r ra n k in g th e p a s t o ffe n s e s o f b o y s i n th e s tu d y . I t was one way o f c a te g o r iz in g th e r e l a t i v e s e rio u s n e s s o f t h e i r o f f e n s e s and to see i f th e y w ere p e rc e iv e d a s any g r e a t d a n g e r to th e com m unity. 3 fio b in s o n 's A, a m easure o f a g re e m e n t, among th e mean ra n k in g s o f th e th r e e g ro u p s was .91* in d i c a t i n g a h ig h d e g re e o f s i m i l a r i t y . P o r a d e s c r i p t i o n o f t h i s m e a su re , se e fiobinson (1957:17**25). TABLE lf OFFENSE SERIOUSNESS JUDGMENTS J u d g m e n t 3 O ffense C ity P o lic e N=17 County S h e r i f f N=20 J u v e n ile C o u rt N=13 T o ta l N=50 A g g rav ated A s s a u lt; p o s s i b i l i t y o f *+•9 If .8 g r e a t harm ; u s e o f w eapons 5 ^ .7 C h ild M o le stin g 5 .0 h .7 Jf.5 Jf .7 F o r c ib le Rape 5 .0 ^.6 k .6 b .7 A rson ^ •9 k .6 Jf.5 k .7 N a rc o tic s Use (e x c lu d in g g lu e ) b .8 **.5 ^ .5 k .6 Robbery b .7 b.Q »f.5 k .6 Drunk D riv in g M-.o 3 .6 3 .8 3 .7 P o s s e s s io n o f D angerous Weapons ?•? 3 .6 3 .5 3 .7 B reak in g and E n te rin g ; B u rg la ry b .b 3 .7 2 .7 3 .7 Glue S n if f in g *t.O 3 .5 2 .8 3 .5 A s s o c ia tio n w ith Ehown N a r c o tic s U se rs 3 .9 3 .^ 2 .9 3 . 1 * A utom obile T h e ft b . l 3 .^ 2 .8 3 A N o n fo rc ib le Homosexual B e h a v io r 3 .7 3 .6 2 .7 3 A P ro b a tio n V io la tio n ; i . e . , I n e f f e c t i v e R e h a b il i t a t i o n 3 .7 3 .6 2 .5 3 .3 Grand T h e ft ( g r e a t e r th a n $50 and e x c lu d in g a u to ) 3 .7 3 .^ 2 .5 3 .3 F o rg e ry ( r e : f i c t i t i o u s c h e c k s ) 3 .6 2 .9 3 .0 3 .1 Runaway from C o r r e c tio n a l Program 3 .5 3 .0 2 .8 3 .0 A s s a u lt and B a tte r y 3 .5 2 .7 2 .9 3 .0 TABLE 1 + — Continued J u d g m e n t s O ffen se County S h e r if f N=20 J u v e n ile C o u rt N=13 C ity P o lic e B*17 T o ta l N=50 I n c o r r i g i b i l i t y : d e f ia n c e o f te a c h e r s , p a r e n ts and o th e r s 3 .7 2 .7 2 .7 3 .0 Damaging P ro p e rty ; M a lic io u s M isc h ie f 2 .8 2.1+ 2 .3 2 .5 N o n fo rc ib le H e te ro s e x u a l B eh av io r 2 .1 2 .6 1 .8 2 .2 L iq u o r V io la tio n s ( p o s s e s s io n , d r in k in g ) 2.1+ 2 .2 2 .2 2 .2 F ig h tin g ; D is tu rb in g th e P eace 2 .6 2 .0 2 .0 2 .1 Bunaway from Home 2 .6 1 .8 1 .8 2 .1 P e tty T h e ft 2 .8 1 .7 1 .9 2 .1 T ruancy from S chool 2 .3 1 .6 2 .0 2 .0 G am bling, L o ite r in g , Im p ro p er Companions 2 .2 2 .0 1 .5 1 .9 D riv in g w ith o u t a L ic e n se 1 .5 1 .8 1 .8 1 .7 O th er T r a f f i c V io la tio n s 1 .8 1 .2 1 .6 1 .5 Curfew V io la tio n s 1 .7 1 .2 1 .1 l . b Smoking l . l .5 .3 .7 0 3 ON P e e r Commitment S c a le s In o rd e r to g e t a t t h i s d im en sio n o f d e lin q u e n t b e h a v io r , a s p e c ia l q u e s tio n n a ir e was d ev elo p ed i n w hich a tte m p ts w ere made to d e te rm in e how re s p o n d e n ts r e a c t to p e e rs i n a v a r i e t y o f d i f f e r e n t s i t u a t i o n s . A l i s t o f th e ite m s t h a t w ere u s e d and a more d e t a i l e d d e s c r ip tio n o f t h e i r s c a lin g may be found i n A ppendix A. T h is q u e s tio n n a ir e was su b m itte d to b oys a s th e y e n te r e d b o th th e co n - j t r o l and e x p e rim e n ta l p ro g ram s. R esponses w ere th e n f a c t o r a n a ly z e d . The a n a ly s is re v e a le d t h a t boys te n d e d to re sp o n d to th e q u e s tio n n a ir e i n d i s t i n c t l y p a tte r n e d w ays. Based upon th e s e p a t t e r n i n g s , f o u r G uttm an s c a l e s , w ith h ig h C o e f f ic ie n ts o f R e p r o d u c ib ility , w ere d e v e lo p e d . j j The f i r s t s c a le had to do w ith th e e x te n t to w hich b o y s w ould be i n c lin e d to g iv e in fo rm a tio n to p a r e n t s , te a c h e r s , o r p o lic e i f t h e i r f r i e n d s w ere i n t r o u b l e . T h is s c a l e , u s in g th e a r g o t o f b o y s, was d e s ig n a te d th e "R atfink" s c a l e . The s c a le d iv id e d boys i n t o f o u r ty p e s . Type k in c lu d e d boys who w ould g iv e in fo rm a tio n to a l l o f f i c i a l s i f t h e i r f r i e n d s were i n t r o u b l e . Type 3 in c lu d e d b o y s who w ould g iv e o u t in fo rm a tio n c o n c e rn in g t h e i r f r i e n d s to p o lic e and p a r e n ts o n ly , w h ile Type 2 in c lu d e d th o s e who w ould g iv e in fo rm a tio n o n ly to th e p o l i c e . Type 1 w ould n o t g iv e in fo rm a tio n to any o n e. The second s c a le was co m p rised o f o n ly two ite m s , 88 b u t d e a l t w ith th e q u e s tio n o f w h e th e r boys w ould h id e t h e i r f r i e n d s i f th e y h ad ru n away from home o r i f th e y w ere i n tr o u b le w ith th e la w . W e d e s ig n a te d t h i s s c a le th e " A c e -in -th e -H o le " s c a l e . I t d iv id e d boys i n t o th r e e ty p e s . Type 3 boys a re th o se who w ould h id e t h e i r f r i e n d s u n d e r any c irc u m s ta n c e s ; Type 2 boys w ould h id e t h e i r f r i e n d s i f th e y had ru n away from hom e, b u t n o t i f th e y j j w ere i n tr o u b le w ith th e la w , w h ile Type 1 boys w ould n o t h id e t h e i r f r i e n d s u n d e r e i t h e r c irc u m s ta n c e . The t h i r d s c a le had to do w ith th e way boys w ould resp o n d to t h e i r p e e r s i n a num ber o f n o n d e lin q u e n t) s o c ia l s i t u a t i o n s . I t was co m p rised o f th r e e ite m s and was e n t i t l e d th e " S o c i a b i l i ty " s c a l e . Type h o f t h i s s c a le in c lu d e d boys who w ould s to p w atc h in g TV, d o in g homework o r g o in g to c h u rc h i n o r d e r to "mess aro u n d " w ith f r i e n d s . j Type 3 in c lu d e d boys who w ould s k ip TV o r c h u rc h b u t n o t homework i n o r d e r to go w ith f r i e n d s , w h ile Type 2 in c lu d e d boys who w ould o n ly g iv e up TV i n o r d e r to "m ess a ro u n d ." Type 1 w ould n o t m iss any o f th e th r e e a c t i v i t i e s i n o r d e r to go w ith t h e i r f r i e n d s . The f o u r th s c a le was composed o f f iv e ite m s and had to do w ith th e way b oys w ould re sp o n d to t h e i r p e e r s i n a num ber o f d e lin q u e n t s i t u a t i o n s . T h is s c a le was d e s ig n a te d th e "D eviancy" s c a l e . Type 6 boys i n t h i s s c a le w ere th o se who w ould fo llo w t h e i r f r i e n d s i n any o f a num ber o f 89 d e lin q u e n t s i t u a t i o n s t h a t w ere l i s t e d : do th in g s t h e i r I p a r e n ts had t o l d them n e v e r to do; s k ip s c h o o l; s t e a l g a s; b re a k and e n te r ; o r s t e a l o th e r ite m s . Type 5 was l i k e Type 6 e x c e p t th e y w ould r e f u s e to b re a k and e n t e r . Type w ould e x c lu d e b re a k in g and e n te r in g and s t e a l i n g g a s . Type 3 w ould o n ly d e fy p a r e n ts o r do some th in g s th e y had i t o l d them n e v e r to do b u t th e y w ould n o t commit th e more s e r io u s d e lin q u e n t a c t s . Type 2 w ould o n ly d efy p a r e n t s ’ w is h e s , w h ile Type 1 s a id th e y w ould n o t do any o f th e s e th in g s w ith t h e i r f r i e n d s . An a d d itio n a l "K icks" s c a le was d ev elo p ed w h ich d id n o t em erge from th e f a c t o r a n a l y s is . In t h i s s c a l e , s e v e r a l ite m s from th e o th e r f o u r s c a le s w ere com bined to m easure commitment to w ard a c t i v i t i e s , some o f w hich w ere d e lin q u e n t and some o f w hich w ere n o n d e lin q u e n t, b u t a l l o f w hich w ere co n cern ed w ith p le a s u re s e e k in g . The developm ent o f th e s e s c a le s seem ed to b e a r con s id e r a b l e p ro m ise . The same d a ta w ere c o lle c te d from d e lin q u e n ts and n o n d e lin q u e n ts i n U tah and v i r t u a l l y id e n t i c a l c l u s t e r i n g s o f ite m s w ere found ( c f . Empey and L ubeck, 1968:760-7*0 • T h is was an im p o rta n t developm ent b e ca u se i t im p lie d some u n i v e r s a l i t y o f re sp o n se to p e e r a c t i v i t i e s i n s h a rp ly d i f f e r e n t u rb a n and r u r a l s i t u a t i o n s . A d d itio n a l com p ariso n s on th e s e s c a le s r e v e a le d t h a t th e p e e r commitment ite m s d is tin g u is h e d betw een d e lin q u e n ts and 90 n o n d e lin q u e n ts much m ore e f f e c t i v e l y th a n th e y d is tin g u is h e d betw een an u r b a n - r u r a l d ich o to m y , g iv in g f u r t h e r s u b s t a n t i a t i o n to t h e i r p o s s ib le g e n e r a l i t y . Background S ca les The la r g e num ber o f ite m s o f in fo r m a tio n c o l l e c t e d on th e s o c i a l back g ro u n d s o f boys w ere a ls o o rg a n iz e d i n t o v a r io u s s c a le s and i n d i c e s . In a l l , s i x d i f f e r e n t b a c k - i g round s c a l e s were d e v elo p e d w hich c o v e re d a v a r i e t y o f I I d i f f e r e n t a r e a s : sc h o o l i n t e r e s t , academ ic p e rfo rm a n c e , s e lf - c o n c e p t , a s p i r a t i o n s , fa m ily r e l a t i o n s and w ork ! e x p e r ie n c e . A ppendix A p r e s e n ts a d e t a i l e d d e s c r i p t i o n o f th e s e s c a l e s and th e m ethodology t h a t was u s e d i n d e v e lo p in g th em . j i I n th e m ain , th e s e s c a le s w ere u s e d i n much th e same way a s th o se w hich have a lr e a d y b een d e s c r ib e d . F o r ex am p le, th e "sc h o o l" s c a le d iv id e d boys i n t o d i f f e r e n t ty p e s b a se d upon t h e i r i n t e r e s t i n s c h o o l, th e g ra d e s th e y j ( o b ta in e d , th e e x te n t to w hich th e y p a r t i c i p a t e d i n e x t r a c u r r i c u l a r a c t i v i t i e s , t h e i r e d u c a tio n a l a s p i r a t i o n s and so o n . T hese d i f f e r e n t ty p e s in c lu d e d b oys on one e x tre m e , who w ere r e l a t i v e l y s u c c e s s f u l and had h ig h a s p i r a t i o n s , and b o y s, on th e o th e r e x tre m e , who e x h ib ite d none o f th e s e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s . I n a d d itio n to th e s e background s c a l e s , if th e a g e s and s o c ia l c l a s s e s o f boys w ere a ls o m e asu re d . ^S ee Empey (1956) f o r a d e s c r i p t i o n o f th e s c a le u s e d to m easure s o c ia l c l a s s . 91 T h u s, th e e i g h t back g ro u n d m e a su re s, i n a d d itio n to th o s e on o f fe n s e h i s t o r y and p e e r in f lu e n c e , p ro v id e d means by w hich t o c l a s s i f y o f f e n d e r s and to se e i f th e s e c l a s s i f i c a t i o n s w ere r e l a t e d i n some way to s u c c e s s i n th e program s u n d e r s tu d y . P e r s o n a l i t y C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s The J e s n e s s P e r s o n a lity I n v e n to ry , (1 9 6 3 ), d ev elo p ed on C a l i f o r n i a T outh A u th o rity w a rd s, was u s e d a s a m eans o f m ea su rin g th e p e r s o n a l i t y a t t r i b u t e s o f e x p e rim e n ta l and c o n tr o l b o y s . E f f o r t s w ere made to d e te rm in e w h e th er th e s e a t t r i b u t e s w ere r e l a t e d i n some way t o p a s t d e lin q u e n t h i s t o r y , i f th e y w ere h e l p f u l i n m easu rin g c h an g e, o r i f th e y j w ere p r e d i c t i v e i n any way o f th o se who su cceed o r f a i l i n th e E x p e rim e n t. The I n v e n to ry , b ase d on a 1 5 5 -ite m q u e s tio n n a ir e , i s co m p rised o f n in e b a s ic s c a le s t h a t m easure d i f f e r e n t dim en s io n s o f p e r s o n a l i t y a t t r i b u t e s . J e s n e s s d e s c rib e s them a s f o llo w s : 5 1 . S o c ia l M ala d ju stm en t (63 ite m s ) . S o c ia l Mal a d ju s tm e n t r e f e r s to a s e t o f a t t i t u d e s a s s o c i a t e d w ith u n f u l f i l l e d n e e d s , a s d e fin e d by th e e x te n t to w hich an in d iv id u a l s h a re s th e c 'A s p e c i a l , w e ig h te d S o c ia l M alad ju stm en t s c a l e , d e v e lo p e d .b y J e s n e s s , was a ls o u s e d . Thus th e r e w ere two m easu res o f t h i s p e r s o n a l i t y d im e n sio n . 92 a t t i t u d e s o f p e rso n s who d e m o n stra te an a b i l i t y to m e e t, i n s o c i a l l y approved w ay s, th e demands o f t h e i r environm ent* 2 . V alue O r ie n ta tio n (39 it e m s ) . V alue o r i e n t a t i o n r e f e r s to a ten d en cy to h o ld v a lu e s c h a r a c t e r i s t i c o f p e rs o n s i n a lo w er c l a s s . 3 . A utism (28 ite m s ) . A utism r e f e r s to a ten d en cy i n th in k in g to d i s t o r t r e a l i t y a c c o rd in g to o n e 's p e r s o n a l d e s ir e s and n e e d s . *t. A lie n a tio n (2 6 ite m s ) . A lie n a tio n r e f e r s to th e p re se n c e o f d i s t r u s t and e stra n g e m e n t i n a p e r s o n 's a t t i t u d e tow ard o t h e r s , e s p e c i a l l y tow ard p e rs o n s r e p r e s e n tin g a u t h o r it y . 5 . A ffe c t (31 it e m s ) . A f fe c t r e f e r s to an aw are n e s s o f u n p le a s a n t f e e l i n g s e s p e c i a l l y o f a n g e r and f r u s t r a t i o n , a ten d en cy to r e a c t r e a d i l y w ith e m o tio n , and p e rc e iv e d d is c o m fo rt c o n c e rn in g th e p re se n c e and c o n tr o l o f th e s e f e e l i n g s . 6 . W ithdraw al (21 * ite m s ) . W ithdraw al in v o lv e s a p e rc e iv e d la c k o f s a t i s f a c t i o n w ith s e l f and o th e r s and a ten d en cy to w ard p a s s iv e e sc a p e o r i s o l a t i o n from o t h e r s . 7 . S o c ia l A n x iety (2^ ite m s ) . S o c ia l a n x ie ty i s d e fin e d a s th e p e rc e iv e d e m o tio n a l d is c o m fo rt a s s o c ia te d w ith in te r p e r s o n a l r e l a t i o n s h i p s . 8 . R e p re ssio n (15 ite m s ) . R e p re s sio n r e f e r s to th e e x c lu s io n from c o n s c io u s aw aren ess o f f e e lin g s and em o tio n s w hich th e in d iv id u a l w ould n o rm a lly be e x p e c te d to e x p e r ie n c e , o r h i s f a i l u r e to l a b e l th e s e e m o tio n s. 9 . A s o c i a l iz a t io n . A s o c ia liz a tio n r e f e r s to a g e n e r a liz e d d i s p o s itio n to re s o lv e p ro b lem s i n s o c ia l and p e rs o n a l a d ju s tm e n t i n ways o r d i n a r i l y re g a rd e d a s show ing a d is r e g a r d f o r s o c ia l cu sto m s o r r u l e s . P ro c e ss M easures T hree p ro c e s s m easu res w ere d ev elo p e d i n o r d e r to m easure th e b e h a v io r o f boys w h ile th e y w ere p a r t i c i p a t i n g i n e i t h e r program : C r i t i c a l I n c i d e n t s , S o c io m e tric S tan d in g and G rades i n S c h o o l. Each o f th e s e i s d is c u s s e d b e lo w . C r i t i c a l I n c id e n ts The m easurem ent o f C r i t i c a l I n c id e n ts fo c u se d upon any s i g n i f i c a n t p roblem a r i s i n g i n th e e x p e rim e n ta l p ro gram : r e p o r t s o f a c t u a l d e lin q u e n c y ; tr o u b le a t s c h o o l; f i g h t s i n th e h o u se; th e a d m in is tr a tio n o f s a n c tio n s by s t a f f o r g ro u p s , o r any o th e r i n c i d e n t . A ttem p ts w ere made to m easure how many in c i d e n t s o f a p ro b le m -p ro d u c in g n a tu r e e ac h boy was in v o lv e d i n . S o o io m e tric S ta n d in g As a m ethod o f c o l l e c t i n g d a ta on t h i s v a r i a b l e e ac h boy was ask ed to r a t e how w e ll he l i k e d o th e r boys i n th e p ro g ram . From t h i s , two s o u rc e s o f d a ta w ere a v a ila b le f o r th e s o c io m e tric a n a l y s i s . They w ere (1 ) how much a g iv e n boy l i k e d o th e r b o y s , and (2 ) how much o th e r boys l i k e d th e same g iv e n b o y . On th e b a s is o f th e s e d a ta s o u r c e s , a f o u r f o ld ty p o lo g y was d e v e lo p e d . The f i r s t ty p e was la b e le d th e ALOOFS b e ca u se i t c o n s is te d o f boys who a r e w e l l - li k e d by o th e r s b u t who do n o t l i k e o th e r p e o p le . The second ty p e was c a l l e d th e LOVED O W E S b ecau se i t i s co m p rised o f boys who a re w e l l - li k e d and who l i k e o t h e r s . The t h i r d ty p e i s la b e le d th e EEGGAES. These a r e boys who a r e n o t w e l l - li k e d by o th e r s b u t who th e m se lv e s l i k e o th e r b o y s. The f o u r th and f i n a l ty p e c o n s is te d o f th e ISOLATES. T his ty p e i s c o m p rised o f boys who a r e g e n e r a lly n o t w e l l - li k e d by o t h e r s , and who do n o t l i k e o th e r s i n t u r n . G rades i n School The sc h o o l p erfo rm an ces o f a l l b o y s , i n th e form o f g r a d e - p o in t a v e ra g e s , w ere c o l l e c t e d d u rin g t h e i r p a r t i c i p a tio n i n e i t h e r p ro g ram . I t w i l l be r e c a l l e d from C h a p ter I I , t h a t th e e x p e rim e n ta l g ro u p a tte n d e d a p u b lic h ig h s c h o o l w hich was lo c a te d i n th e l o c a l com m unity» w h ile th e c o n tr o l group p a r t i c i p a t e d i n th e academ ic program s o f 95 th e Boys' R e p u b lic . G rades w ere m easured on a s ta n d a rd s c a le ra n g in g from 0 f o r S'*a to b f o r A *s. Outcome M easures Outcome r e s e a r c h was co n cern ed w ith a s tu d y o f a c tu a l ch an g es i n d e lin q u e n t b e h a v io r and an a s se s sm e n t o f program e f f e c t i v e n e s s . The fo llo w in g f iv e m easu res o f out** come w ere d ev elo p ed to m easure th e e f f e c t w hich e i t h e r p ro gram m ig h t have had on s u b j e c t s ' b e h a v io r: Runaways The num ber o f runaw ays e ach s u b je c t had d u rin g h i s s ta y i n tre a tm e n t was m easu red . Over **0 p e r c e n t o f th e s u b je c ts a t e i t h e r program w ere te rm in a te d due to ru n aw ay s. T e rm in a tio n T h is m easure was co n cern ed w ith w h eth er o r n o t th e s t a f f members o f e i t h e r program made a d e c is io n to remove a g iv e n boy from tr e a tm e n t. Some boys w ere so r e s i s t i v e to change and t h e i r b e h a v io r was so p r o b le m a tic , t h a t th e y had to be rem oved from tr e a tm e n t. L ength o f Time i n Program T h is i s a s in g le m easure o f how many m onths a g iv e n s u b je c t rem ain ed i n tre a tm e n t b e fo re h i s r e l e a s e . R e c id iv ism The num ber o f o f f i c i a l l y re c o rd e d la w - v io la tin g 96 a c t s com m itted by e a c h boy was m easured d u rin g a f i f t e e n - m onth tim e i n t e r v a l a f t e r r e l e a s e . L en g th o f Time b e fo re R e c id iv ism T h is m easure i n d i c a t e s how lo n g a f t e r r e l e a s e i t was b e fo re a g iv e n boy com m itted h i s f i r s t r e c i d i v i s t o f f e n s e . Summary I n summary, th e r e s e a r c h d e s ig n c o n s is te d o f two m a jo r co m p o n en ts. The f i r s t was an e x p e rim e n ta l d e s ig n i n w hich a p o p u la tio n o f p e r s i s t e n t o f fe n d e r s from Los A n g eles was random ly a s s ig n e d to e i t h e r a c o n t r o l o r e x p e rim e n ta l j i tre a tm e n t p ro g ram . The second com ponent was a m easurem ent j d e s ig n i n w hich d a ta w ere c o l l e c t e d i n th e s e q u e n tia l a r e a s o f i n p u t , p ro c e s s and outcom e. A summary o f th e d e s ig n may be fo u n d i n F ig u re 7 . PERSISTENT MLB DELINQUENTS PROM LOS ANGELES COUNTY ASSIGNED TO BOYS' REPUBLIC DOMIZATIO EXPERIMENTAL MEDIATORY PRO G RA M BASED O N THEORETICAL POSTULATES N = 135 EXISTING CONTROL INSTITUTION N = 102 4 INPUT MEASURES 4 PROCESS MEASURES O U TCO M E MEASURES SAMPLING R A N D O M ASSIGNMENT EXPERIMBNTAL M ODEL J M EASUREM ENT DESIGN P ig . 7 .— Components o f th e r e s e a r c h d e s ig n vo N 3 CHAPTER IV D E V E L O P M E N T O P T H E M O D E L S The purpose o f t h is chapter i s to d escrib e the development o f the models th a t were used in the sim u la tio n . As p oin ted out in the f i r s t ch ap ter, a d e c isio n was made to co n stru ct a s e r ie s o f m u ltip le lin e a r r eg r essio n models in order to b u ild the sim u la tio n . This d e c isio n was made because reg ressio n models are among the most e le g a n t models a v a ila b le and because they are r e la t iv e ly easy to manipu l a t e . Furthermore, techn iqu es o f m u ltip le lin e a r r e g r es sio n are v e iy adaptable to the measurement d esign o f t h is stu d y . They enable a p r e d ictio n o f p rocess measures u sin g input measures as the p r e d ic to r s, and they enable a p red ic tio n o f outcome measures u sin g measures o f input and pro c e ss to g eth er as p r e d ic to r s. This chapter w i l l be d ivid ed in to three major se c t io n s . F ir s t , a gen eral d iscu ssio n o f m u ltip le lin e a r r e g r e ssio n and i t s u t i l i t y w i l l be p resen ted . Second, a b r ie f d isc u ssio n o f a v a ila b le techn iqu es fo r s e le c tin g the b e st r eg r essio n models w i l l be made. Third, i t w ill be shown how the models used in co n stru ctin g the sim u lation 99 w ere d e v e lo p e d a n d , f o u r t h , a b r i e f d is c u s s io n o f th e li m i t a t i o n s o f th e s e m odels w i l l be p r e s e n te d . M u ltip le L in e a r R e g re s sio n M u ltip le l i n e a r r e g r e s s io n sim p ly e n t a i l s th e p r e d i c t i o n o f a s i n g l e , q u a n t i t a t i v e v a r i a b l e (Y)— c a l l e d a c r i t e r i o n v a r i a b l e — from two o r more p r e d i c t o r v a r i a b l e s 1 ' ■ II ■ I 111 I ■'■■■ ■ I * i (X1? X2» • • • > Tlie p r in c ip a l u s e s f o r th e m u ltip le | l i n e a r r e g r e s s io n te c h n iq u e a r e t h r e e f o l d . F i r s t , i t e n a b le s one to d e te rm in e th e e x te n t to w hich a g ro u p o f p r e d i c t o r v a r i a b l e s a c c o u n ts f o r v a r ia n c e i n a c r i t e r i o n v a r i a b l e . A m easure o f m u ltip le c o r r e l a t i o n p sq u a re d (R ) y i e l d s a ”p r o p o r tio n a t e - r e d u c t i o n - i n - e r r o r i n t e r p r e t a t i o n ” ( C o s tn e r , 1965) w hich i n d i c a t e s th e e x te n t j to w hich th e p r e d i c t o r v a r i a b l e s e n a b le an a c c u r a te p r e d ic - p t i o n o f a c r i t e r i o n . An R o f .6 2 , f o r exam ple, w ould i n d i c a t e t h a t v a r i a t i o n i n th e c r i t e r i o n v a r ia b le c o u ld be p r e d ic te d w ith a 62 p e r c e n t a c c u ra c y , g iv e n know ledge o f th e p r e d i c t o r v a r i a b l e s . E h ren b erg (1 9 6 8 :3 0 0 ) sums u p th e u t i l i t y o f t h i s a s p e c t o f r e g r e s s io n by s t a t i n g t h a t ” . . . th e s ta n d a rd aim i n m u ltip le r e g r e s s io n [ i s ] to o b ta in a s good a 'p r e d i c t o r ' o f th e d ep en d en t v a r i a b l e a s p o s s ib le by in c lu d in g a s many e x p la n a to ry v a r i a b l e s a s a re n ee d e d ( b u t no m o re ).” S econd, i t e n a b le s one to p r e d i c t s c o re s on th e c r i t e r i o n v a r i a b l e , g iv e n th e c o m b in atio n o f q u a n t i t a t i v e 100 f a c t o r s , o r p r e d i c t o r v a r i a b l e s , a d m in is te re d to a s u b je c t. I t does t h i s th ro u g h th e u se o f th e fo llo w in g g e n e r a l m odel: Y = a + b ^ + b 2X2 + . . . + b ^ + e w here " b j" and " a ” a r e unknown p a ra m e te rs ( c o n s ta n ts o f th e m o d e l), w here "X^ 1 a re known v a lu e s o f random p r e d i c t o r v a r i a b l e s , w here "Y" i s an e s tim a te d v a lu e o f a c r i t e r i o n v a r i a b l e , and w here "e" i s a random v a r i a b l e ( r e p r e s e n tin g e r r o r o f p r e d ic tio n o r r e s i d u a l e r r o r ) w ith a mean o f z e ro ( G r a y b ill, 1 9 6 1 :1 9 5 ). I f th e c o n s ta n ts o f th e m odel ( b j and a ) w ere known, th e n a g iv e n i n d i v i d u a l 's s c o re s on th e j p r e d i c t o r v a r i a b l e s (Xn) c o u ld be o b ta in e d an d , th ro u g h a I x i s e r i e s o f sim p le m u l t i p l ic a ti o n s and a d d i t i o n s , h i s e s t i m ated s c o re on th e c r i t e r i o n v a r i a b l e (Y) c o u ld be o b ta in e d . I f , f o r a sam ple o f i n d i v i d u a l s , R2 w ere e q u a l to .6 2 , th e n o u r g u e s s e s o f Y w ould be a c c u r a te a b o u t 62 p e r c e n t o f th e tim e . The s ta n d a rd c o m p u ta tio n a l fo rm u la u s e d to o b ta in th e c o n s ta n ts o f th e above r e g r e s s io n e q u a tio n (H ay es, 1963) i s d e riv e d from a s e t o f K -l sim u lta n e o u s e q u a tio n s (K = th e num ber o f v a r i a b l e s ) b e g in n in g w ith : (b l 2 .3 . . . + r 23 (b 1 3 .2 . . . k } + * ’ * + r 2k ( bl k .2 . . . k - 1 ^ = *12 and ending w ith: r 2k (b12.3 . . . k^ + r 3k <b1 3 .2 . . . k^ + * * * + (blk .2 . . . k - l ) = rlk • When la rg e numbers o f p red icto r v a r ia b le s are u sed , such as in t h is stu d y , hand com putations o f the above equation s can be extrem ely lab oriou s and d i f f i c u l t and the use o f e le c tro n ic data p rocessin g equipment i s recommended. The th ird p r in c ip a l use o f m u ltip le lin e a r r eg r es sio n i s th a t i t perm its the analyzin g o f v a r ia tio n in to component p arts (McNemar, 1962:185)> as in d ica ted by the fo llo w in g formula: fi21 .2 . . . k = (b 1 2 .3 . . . k> r l 2 + * * • + (blk .2 . . . k -l> rik * Through the use o f t h is formula (which assumes th a t data are in standard score form) i t i s p o s sib le to a ss e s s the co n trib u tio n o f each p red icto r v a r ia b le in accounting fo r 2 R ? w h ile c o n tr o llin g fo r the co n trib u tio n s o f other v a r ia b le s . S e le c tin g the B est R egression Model I t W ill be r e c a lle d from Chapter I I I , th a t th ree major s e t s o f data W fti© to be used in co n stru ctin g the r eg r essio n models fo r t h is stu d y. F ir s t , th irty -tw o input measures— based on the c h a r a c te r is tic s o f su b jects before 102 th e y e n te r e d e i t h e r th e e x p e rim e n ta l o r c o n tr o l program — w ere d ev elo p ed i n th e fo llo w in g f iv e a r e a s : 1 . O ffen se S c a le s . These e i g h t s c a le s p ro v id e d an e m p iric a l m ethod f o r d iv id in g hoys in to d i f f e r e n t c a t e g o r i e s , b a se d upon t h e i r p a s t d e l i n q u en t h i s t o r y . 2 . O ffense S e rio u s n e s s S c a le . T h is s c a le was a means o f c a te g o r iz in g th e s e r io u s n e s s o f d i f f e r e n t o f fe n s e s b a se d upon r a t i n g s by law e n fo rc em e n t a g e n c ie s and ju d g e s . 3 . P e e r S c a l e s . These f iv e s c a le s c a te g o r iz e d boys i n te rm s o f th e way th e y r e l a t e to t h e i r p e e r s i n a v a r i e t y o f d e lin q u e n t and non d e lin q u e n t s i t u a t i o n s . k . B ackground S c a le s . These s c a l e s , e ig h t i n a l l , p ro v id e m eans by w hich to c l a s s i f y boys i n term s o f t h e i r e x p e rie n c e s i n a v a r i e t y o f d i f f e r e n t s e t t i n g s : home; s c h o o l; work and com m unity. They p ro v id e d a r e l a t i v e l y p a r s i m onious way f o r r e l a t i n g a h o s t o f background c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s to o th e r v a r i a b l e s . 5 . P e r s o n a lity S c a le s . Ten s c a le s o f th e J e s n e s s P e r s o n a lity In v e n to ry w ere u s e d to m easure im p o rta n t d im en sio n s o f th e p e r s o n a l i t i e s o f e x p e rim e n ta l s u b je c ts . 103 Second) th e fo llo w in g th r e e p ro c e s s m easu res w ere d ev elo p ed to m easure s u b j e c t 's p e rfo rm a n c e s w h ile p a r t i c i p a tin g i n e i t h e r o f th e two c o r r e c t i o n a l p ro g ram s: 1 . S o c io m e tric S c a le . T h is s c a le m easu res th e m anner i n w hich s u b je c ts view ed and ra n k e d ea c h o th e r w h ile p a r t i c i p a t i n g i n th e e x p e r i m e n ta l p ro g ram . 2 . G ra d es. The a v e ra g e h ig h sc h o o l g ra d e s o b ta in e d by s u b je c ts was a ls o m easu red . 3 • C r i t i c a l I n c i d e n t s . F o r e x p e rim e n ta l s u b j e c t s , a tte m p ts w ere made to m easure th e in c id e n c e o f d e lin q u e n t a c t s , m ost o f w hich w ere u n d e te c te d . T h ir d , th e fo llo w in g f iv e m easu res o f outcom e w ere i u s e d to m easure th e e f f e c t w hich e i t h e r program m ig h t have had on s u b j e c t s ' b e h a v io r: 1 . Runaways. The num ber o f runaw ays e a c h s u b je c t h ad d u rin g h i s s ta y i n tre a tm e n t was m easu red . 2 . T e rm in a tio n . T h is m easure was c o n c ern e d w ith w h e th e r o r n o t th e s t a f f members o f e i t h e r program made a d e c is io n to remove a g iv e n boy from tr e a tm e n t. 3 . L ength o f Time i n P rogram . T h is i s a s in g le m easure o f how many m onths a g iv e n s u b je c t rem ained i n tr e a tm e n t. R e c id iv is m . The num ber o f o f f i c i a l l y re c o rd e d l a w - v io la tin g a c t s com m itted by each boy was lO^f m easured d u rin g a f if te e n - m o n th tim e i n t e r v a l a f t e r h i s r e l e a s e . 5 . len g th o f Time before B eoid ivism . This measure in d ic a te s how lon g a f t e r r e le a s e i t was b efore a g iv en boy committed h is f i r s t r e c id iv is t j i o f f e n s e . These m easu res w ould be u s e d to c o n s tr u c t r e g r e s s io n m odels i n two w ay s. F i r s t , th e in p u t m easu res w ould be u s e d to g e th e r to p r e d i c t e ac h o f th e p ro c e s s m e a s u re s . | S eco n d , th e in p u t and p ro c e s s m easu res w ould be u s e d to g e th e r to p r e d i c t e a c h o f th e outcom e m e a su re s. A g ain , i t s h o u ld be em phasized t h a t s e p a r a te m odels w ould be b u i l t f o r th e c o n t r o l and e x p e rim e n ta l p ro g ra m s. One o f th e m ost im m ediate p ro b lem s e n c o u n te re d i n a tte m p tin g to c o n s tr u c t r e g r e s s io n m odels from th e above m easu res had t o do w ith th e u n u s u a lly la r g e num bers o f v a r i a b l e s in v o lv e d . When la r g e num bers o f v a r i a b l e s a re u s e d i n a r e g r e s s io n e q u a tio n , th e m odel becomes v e ry cum bersom e to com pute and u s e , and th e e x p la in e d v a r ia n c e d e r iv e d from th e m odel i s i n d an g er o f b e in g s p u r io u s ly h ig h . T hese pro b lem s w i l l be to u ch ed on l a t e r , b u t s u f f i c e i t to say h e re t h a t , g iv e n a c r i t e r i o n v a r i a b l e , "Y ", and p r e d i c t o r v a r i a b l e s , "X ^", two opposed c r i t e r i a o f s e l e c t in g a r e s u l t a n t p r e d i c t io n e q u a tio n a r e u s u a lly in v o lv e d . A c co rd in g to D ra p e r and Sm ith (1 9 6 6 :1 6 3 ) th e y a r e a s f o llo w s : 1 . To make th e e q u a tio n u s e f u l f o r p r e d ic t i v e p u rp o se s we sh o u ld w ant o u r m odel to in c lu d e a s many Xa a s p o s s ib le so t h a t r e l i a b l e f i t t e d v a lu e s ca n be d e t e r m ined. 2 . Because o f th e c o s ts in v o lv e d i n o b ta in in g in fo rm a tio n on a la r g e num ber o f Xs and s u b se q u e n tly m o n ito rin g th em , we sh o u ld l i k e th e e q u a tio n to in c lu d e a s few Xs a s p o s s ib le . i In o th e r w o rd s, a r e g r e s s io n m odel i s u s u a ll y i so u g h t w h ich m axim izes b o th th e re q u ire m e n ts o f a c c u ra c y and o f e le g a n c e . These two re q u ire m e n ts a r e n o t alw ay s b o th e a s i l y o b ta in e d , and any com prom ise betw een them in v o lv e s w hat i s u s u a lly c a lle d ’’s e l e c t i n g th e b e s t r e g r e s s io n e q u a tio n ." T here i s no s ta n d a rd o r u n iq u e s t a t i s t i c a l p ro c e d u re f o r d o in g t h i s , and i t r e l i e s q u ite h e a v ily on th e p e r s o n a l judgm ent o f th e r e s e a r c h e r . j D rap er and S m ith (1 9 6 6 :C h a p te r 8 ) s u g g e st f o u r te c h n iq u e s by w hich th e b e s t r e g r e s s io n e q u a tio n m ig h t be s e l e c t e d . They a re a s fo llo w s : 1 . The T echnique o f A ll P o s s ib le B e g re ssio n s (D rap er and S m ith , 1 9 6 6 :1 6 ^ -6 7 ) . 1 T h is p r o ce d u re in v o lv e s th e f i t t i n g o f e v e ry p o s s ib le r e g r e s s io n e q u a tio n w hich in v o lv e s Y p lu s any num ber o f th e v a r ia b le s Xq, . . . , X^. I f K = 3 2 , a s i s th e c a se i n t h i s study," th e n 2^ Iftls o se e D. fi. Cox (1 9 6 8 :2 7 0 ) f o r a f u r t h e r d i s c u s s io n o f t h i s te c h n iq u e . 106 o r ,6*+8 e q u a tio n s m ust be exam ined f o r th e second s te p i n th e p ro c e d u re . W ith K = *+, th e fo llo w in g s te p s w ould be fo llo w e d : S te p 1 . D iv id e th e ru n s in t o * + s e t s : a . th e f o u r 1 - v a r ia b le ru n s (Y = fCX ^)) b . th e 2 - v a r ia b le ru n s (Y = fC X ^ X j)) c . th e 3 ~ v a ria b le ru n s (Y = f(X i ,X^,Xr )) d . th e ^ - v a r i a b l e ru n (Y = f(X i,X 2 ,X3 ,X ^ )). S te p 2 . O rd er th e ru n s w ith in e a c h s e t by th e v a lu e o f th e sq u a re o f th e m u ltip le c o r r e l a t i o n 2 c o e f f i c i e n t , R . S te p 3 . Exam ine th e l e a d e r s to see i f th e r e i s any c o n s is t e n t p a t t e r n o f v a r i a b l e s i n th e i le a d in g e q u a tio n s i n e a c h s e t . In p r a c t i c e , how ever, t h i s p ro c e d u re w ould be h ig h ly i n f e a s i b l e f o r u s e i n t h i s s tu d y . G iven th e num ber o f v a r i a b l e s in v o lv e d and th e num ber o f s e p a ra te r e g r e s s io n m odels to be d e v e lo p e d , i t w ould r e q u ir e th e co m p u ta tio n o f a t l e a s t 7 7 , 252 , 705 ,66* + s e p a ra te r e g r e s s io n ru n s ! 2 . The Backward E lim in a tio n P ro c ed u re (D ra p e r and S m ith , 1 9 6 6 :1 6 7 -6 9 ). T h is p ro c e d u re in v o lv e s th e fo llo w in g th r e e b a s ic s te p s : (1 ) A r e g r e s s io n e q u a tio n c o n ta in in g a l l v a r i a b l e s i s com puted. (2 ) The p a r t i a l E - t e s t v a lu e i s c a l c u l a t e d f o r 107 e v e ry v a r i a b l e t r e a t e d a s th ough i t w ere th e l a s t v a r ia b le to e n t e r th e r e g r e s s io n e q u a tio n . ( 3 ) The lo w est p a r tia l F - te s t v a lu e , Fj, sa y , i s compared w ith a p r e se le c te d s i g n i f i cance l e v e l , P0 , sa y . a . I f PL < P0 , remove the v a ria b le Xj,, which gave r is e to P^, from con sid ers-j tio n and recompute the reg ressio n equation in the rem aining v a r ia b le s; r e -e n te r stage 2 . b . I f Pl > P0 , adopt the reg r essio n equa tio n as c a lc u la te d . 3 . The F orw ard S e le c tio n P ro c e d u re (D rap e r and j S m ith , 1 9 6 6 s l6 9 -7 1 ). The fo rw ard s e l e c t i o n p ro c e d u re i s an a tte m p t to a c h ie v e a c o n c lu s io n s im i l a r to th e backw ard p ro c e d u re w orking from th e o th e r d i r e c t i o n , t h a t i s , to i n s e r t ( r a t h e r th a n rem ove) v a r i a b l e s i n tu r n u n t i l th e r e g r e s s io n e q u a tio n i s s a t i s f a c t o r y . The o rd e r o f i n s e r t i o n i s d e te rm in e d by u s in g th e p a r t i a l c o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t a s a m easure o f th e im p o rta n ce o f v a r ia b le s n o t y e t i n th e equa t i o n . The v a r i a b l e f i r s t s e le c t e d i s th e X^ t h a t i s m ost h ig h ly c o r r e l a t e d w ith Y. The S te p w ise R e g re ssio n P ro ced u re (D ra p er and S m ith , 1 9 6 6 ;1 7 1 “ 7 2 ) . T h is te c h n iq u e i s an im proved v e r s io n o f th e fo rw a rd s e le c t io n m odel i n t h a t i t in v o lv e s th e re -e x a m in a tio n a t e v e ry s ta g e o f th e r e g r e s s io n o f th e v a r i a b le s in c o r p o r a te d i n t o th e m odel i n p re v io u s s ta g e s . A v a r i a b l e w hich may have been th e b e s t s in g le v a r ia b le to e n t e r a t an e a r l y s ta g e may, a t a l a t e r s ta g e , be s u p e rflu o u s b e cau se o f th e r e l a t i o n s h i p s betw een i t and o th e r v a r i a b le s now i n th e r e g r e s s i o n . Any v a r ia b le w hich p ro v id e s a n o n s ig n if ic a n t c o n tr ib u tio n i s rem oved from th e m odel. The ste p w ise p ro c e s s i s c o n tin u e d u n t i l no more v a r ia b le s w i l l be a d m itte d to th e e q u a tio n and no more a re r e j e c t e d (a c c o rd in g to p r e s e le c te d F - le v e ls o f r e j e c t i o n o r a c c e p ta n c e ) . The fo llo w in g i s a s te p - b y - s te p d e s c r ip tio n o f ste p w ise r e g r e s s io n : S te p 1 . The ste p w is e p ro c e d u re s t a r t s w ith th e sim p le c o r r e l a t i o n m a trix and e n te r s in to r e g r e s s io n th e X v a r ia b le m ost h ig h ly c o r r e l a t e d w ith Y, ( e . g . , X+)» S te p 2 . U sin g th e p a r t i a l c o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t s a s i n th e fo rw ard s e le c t io n p ro c e d u re , i t now s e l e c t s , a s th e n e x t v a r ia b le to e n t e r r e g r e s s i o n , t h a t X v a r i a b l e whose p a r t i a l c o r r e l a t i o n w ith th e c r i t e r i o n v a r ia b le i s th e h ig h e s t ( e . g . , X-^). S te p 3 . G iven th e r e g r e s s io n e q u a tio n T = fC X ^jX ^), th e m ethod now exam ines th e con t r i b u t i o n X^ w ould have made i f X^ had been e n te r e d f i r s t and e n te r e d sec o n d . I f th e v a lu e o f th e p a r t i a l F i s h ig h enough, th e n X i* i s r e t a i n e d . The ste p w is e m ethod now s e l e c t s a s th e n e x t v a r ia b le to e n t e r , th e one m ost h ig h ly p a r t i a l l y c o r r e l a t e d w ith th e c r i t e r i o n v a r i a b l e (g iv e n t h a t v a r i a b l e s X i* . and X j_ a r e a lre a d y i n th e r e g r e s s i o n ) . Step * f r . A r eg r essio n equation fo r Y = fCXi,., X i,X 2 ) i s now determined by le a s t sq u ares. Assume the v a ria b le X2 e n te r s w ith a s i g n i f i cant se q u en tia l F v a lu e . At t h is p oin t p a r tia l F -te s ts fo r the v a r ia b le s X^ and X ^ . are made to determine i f they should remain in the r eg r es sio n eq u a tio n . As a consequence, fo r example, X ^ . might be r e je c te d sin ce i t s p a r tia l F i s not s ig n ific a n t • S te p 5 . Assume th e o n ly re m a in in g v a r i a b l e was X 3 . I f t h i s v a r ia b le w ere im m ed iately r e je c te d , th e s te p w is e p ro c e d u re w ould te rm in a te and 1 1 0 choose a s i t s h e s t r e g r e s s io n e q u a tio n : Y = f(X1 ?x2 ). Development o f the R egression Models I t was d e c id e d t h a t a s te p w is e p ro c e d u re w ould p ro v id e th e b e s t te c h n iq u e f o r s e le c t in g r e g r e s s io n m odels f o r u se i n t h i s s tu d y . P u r therm o r e , b e c a u se o f th e la r g e num b e r s o f p r e d i c t o r v a r i a b l e s to be in v o lv e d i n each r e g r e s s io n r u n , i t was d e c id e d to l i m i t e a c h r e g r e s s io n m odel to no more th a n te n p r e d i c t o r s . T hus, f o r e a ch r u n , th e s te p w ise te c h n iq u e was u s e d to s e l e c t an o p tim a l t e n - v a r i a b l e r e g r e s s io n m odel from a p o o l o f t h i r t y - o n e o r more p r e d i c t o r s . A t o t a l o f e ig h te e n s e p a ra te t e n - v a r ia b le r e g r e s s io n m o d els w ere c o n s tr u c te d u s in g th e s te p w ise te c h n iq u e , j P o r b o th th e c o n tr o l and e x p e rim e n ta l p ro g ram s, th e fo llo w in g e i g h t m o d e ls, a t o t a l o f s ix te e n i n a l l , w ere d ev elo p ed : 1 . In p u t m easu res w ere u s e d to p r e d i c t G ra d e s. 2 . In p u t and P ro c e ss m easu res w ere u s e d to p r e d i c t Runaways. 3 . In p u t and P ro c e ss m easu res w ere u s e d to p r e d i c t T e rm in a tio n . *f. In p u t and P ro c e ss m easu res w ere u s e d to p r e d i c t L ength o f Time i n T reatm en t f o r Runaways and T e rm in ees. 5 . In p u t and P ro c e s s m easu res were u se d to p r e d i c t L ength o f Time i n T reatm en t f o r Program Gradu a t e s . Ill 6 . In p u t and P ro c e ss m easu res w ere u s e d t o p r e d i c t F requency o f R ec id iv ism f o r Runaways and T e r- m in e e s. 7 . In p u t and P ro c e s s m easu res w ere u s e d to p r e d i c t F requency o f R ec id iv ism f o r Program G ra d u a te s. 8 . In p u t and P ro c e s s m easu res w ere u s e d to p r e d i c t L ength o f lim e b e fo re R e c id iv ism and R e c id i v i s t s . F o r th e e x p e rim e n ta l program o n ly , two a d d itio n a l m odels w ere c r e a te d : 9 . In p u t m easu res w ere u s e d to p r e d i c t S o c io m e tric R an k in g . 1 0 . In p u t m easu re s w ere u s e d to p r e d i c t Number o f C r i t i c a l I n c i d e n t s . j B ecause d a ta c o n c e rn in g C r i t i c a l I n c id e n ts and S o c io m e tric R ankings w ere n o t g a th e r e d a t th e c o n tr o l p ro g ram , m odels c o n c e rn in g t h e i r p r e d i c t io n th e r e w ere n o t d e v e lo p e d . The m odels w hich w ere d ev e lo p ed may be found i n A ppendix B. Space l i m i t a t i o n s p re c lu d e a d e t a i l e d d e s c r ip t i o n o f e a c h o f th e e ig h te e n m o d els; h o w ev er, a d e t a i l e d e x a m in a tio n o f th e m odel u s e d to p r e d i c t C r i t i c a l I n c id e n ts m ig h t s e rv e to i l l u s t r a t e th e p ro c e d u re s u s e d . The m odel u s e d to p r e d i c t C r i t i c a l I n c id e n ts ta k e s th e fo llo w in g form (s e e T a b le 29 o f A ppendix B ): Y = 2 .0 7 + .16XX - , 21X2 + *19X3 + . 192fy. - .6OX5 - .11X5 - .09X 7 - . 08Xg + .**2X9 + .S ^ X io , where: 112 = M easure o f S o c ia l M ala d ju stm en t 1 ( J e s n e s s In v e n to r y ) . X2 = M easure o f B e p re ssio n ( J e s n e s s I n v e n to r y ) . X3 = M easure o f le n g th o f Time betw een l a s t O ffen se and Program E n try (O ffe n se S c a le ) . Y i,. = M easure o f H a b itu a ln e s s (O ffe n se S c a le ) . X5 = M easure o f T h e ft B eh av io r (O ffe n se S c a le ) . Xg = M easure o f A lie n a tio n ( J e s n e s s I n v e n to r y ) . X7 = M easure o f A s o c ia lity ( J e s n e s s I n v e n to r y ) . Xg = M easure o f S o c ia l M ala d ju stm en t 2 ( J e s n e s s I In v e n to ry ) . X9 = M easure o f A utom obile S c a le (O ffe n se S c a l e ) . XiO= M easure o f F am ily O ffe n se s S c a le (O ffe n se ; S c a le )• Y = E s tim a te d m easure o f num ber o f C r i t i c a l I n c i d e n ts . I f we w ere to o b ta in a g iv e n i n d i v i d u a l ’s s c o re on e a c h o f th e te n p r e d i c t o r v a r i a b l e s (X-^ th ro u g h X1Q) , by u s in g th e c o n s ta n ts o f th e r e g r e s s io n m o d el, we c o u ld e s t i m ate th e num ber o f C r i t i c a l I n c id e n ts (Y) he m ig h t h av e p a r t i c i p a t e d i n . T a b le 29 o f A ppendix B c o n ta in s o th e r in f o r m a tio n , i n a d d itio n to th e c o n s ta n ts o f th e r e g r e s s io n m o d el. F i r s t , th e t o t a l f o r th e t e n - v a r i a b l e m odel i s ,lf6 . T h is means we can p r e d i c t v a r i a t i o n i n C r i t i c a l I n c i d e n ts by u s in g th e m odel w ith an a c c u ra c y o f ab o u t **6 p e r c e n t . S econd, colum n th r e e o f th e ta b l e i n d i c a t e s how 113 much th e a d d itio n o f e a c h v a r ia b le added to su b se q u en t 2 in c r e a s e s i n R w h ile p r o g re s s in g th ro u g h th e s te p w is e p ro ce d u re s* N o tic e t h a t e a c h su b se q u e n t v a r i a b l e added te n d s 2 t o make l e s s o f an o v e r a l l c o n tr ib u tio n to th e R . Column 2 f o u r o f th e ta b l e i n d i c a t e s th e c u m u la tiv e in c r e a s e i n R made by th e su b se q u e n t a d d itio n o f e a c h v a r i a b l e . Column i f iv e o f th e ta b le i n d i c a t e s th e b e ta -w e ig h ts o r c o n s ta n ts ! a s s ig n e d to ea c h m easure i n th e te n - v a r i a b l e m odel and colum n s ix in d i c a t e s th e z e r o - o r d e r c o r r e l a t i o n o f e a c h p r e d i c t o r v a r ia b le w ith th e c r i t e r i o n . I t i s o f f u r t h e r i n t e r e s t to n o te t h a t o n ly th e P e r s o n a lity and O ffen se m easu res w ere s u f f i c i e n t l y p r e d ic tiv e to be in c lu d e d i n th e t e n - v a r i a b l e m odel f o r p r e d i c t in g C r i t i c a l I n c id e n ts . None o f th e m easu res o f P e e r I d e n t i f i c a t i o n o r S o c ia l B ackground w ere e n t e r e d . A d is c u s s io n and i n t e r p r e t a t i o n o f t h i s f in d in g may be found i n Empey, L ubeck, and Newland (1969 s C h a p ter XI*) • A ttem p ts to a s s e s s th e g e n e r a l i z a b i l i t y o f th e m odels th ro u g h te c h n iq u e s o f s t a t i s t i c a l in fe re n c e w i l l n o t be m ade. The m ost im p o rta n t re a so n f o r t h i s stem s from th e la c k o f e x te r n a l v a l i d i t y in h e r e n t to t h i s s tu d y . B ecause s u b je c ts w ere n o t random ly s e le c te d from a w e ll- d e f in e d p o p u la tio n o f d e lin q u e n ts , any a tte m p ts a t s t a t i s t i c a l in f e r e n c e w ould be d e v o id o f m eaning. T h is does n o t , how e v e r , i n any way d e v a lu e th e u t i l i t y o r a p p l i c a b i l i t y o f lib- th e m odels f o r th e sam ple o f s u b je c ts in c lu d e d i n t h i s s tu d y . As E h ren b erg (1 9 6 8 :3 0 0 ) p o in ts o u t: . . . ’• p r e d ic tio n ” [ i n m u ltip le r e g r e s s io n ] h a s n o th in g to do w ith w h e th er o r n o t th e f i t t e d eq u a t i o n w i l l a c t u a l l y p r e d i c t th e d ep en d en t v a r ia b le c o r r e c t l y i n any o th e r d a t a , o b se rv e d u n d e r d i f f e r e n t c o n d itio n s . I n s t e a d , i t i s a synonym f o r o b ta in in g a " b e s t . f i t " to th e g iv e n d a t a , a s C o r l e t t (1963) h a s i t i n h i s B a lla d e on th e sub j e c t : "Your optimum o n ly i s bonum f o r th e d a ta y o u ’ve f i t t e d i t to ! " F u rth e rm o re , McNemar (1 9 6 2 :1 8 5 ) p o in ts o u t t h a t t e s t s o f s ig n if ic a n c e re g a rd in g m u ltip le c o r r e l a t i o n may be p a r t i c u l a r l y d e c e p tiv e when we have a v a i l a b l e s e v e r a l v a r i a b le s from w hich th o s e y i e ld in g th e h ig h e r c o r r e l a t i o n s w ith th e c r i t e r i o n a r e s e le c te d f o r th e r e g r e s s io n eq u a t i o n . Such s e l e c t i o n , McNemar p o in ts o u t , te n d s to c a p i t a l i z e on c o r r e l a t i o n s w hich m ig h t be h ig h b ecau se o f sam p lin g f l u c t u a t i o n s , th u s m aking i t d i f f i c u l t to g e n e r a l i z e r e s u l t s . In f u tu r e s tu d i e s o f t h i s n a t u r e , g r e a t e r a t t e n t i o n sh o u ld be p a id to s e l e c t i n g sam ples o f d e lin q u e n ts who a r e r e p r e s e n ta tiv e o f a d e f i n i t e p o p u la tio n . T h is s h o u ld be done b e fo re e x p e rim e n ta l ra n d o m iz a tio n p ro c e d u re s a r e p u t in t o e f f e c t . I f t h i s w ere d o n e, th e n th e g e n e r a l i z a b i l i t y o f any m odels d ev elo p ed w ould be g r e a t l y en h an ced . CHAPTER V T H E SIM ULATION The purpose o f t h is chapter i s to describe the sim u la tio n s th a t were run by u sin g the models developed in the p reviou s chap ter. Three b asic types o f sim u lation were attem pted. F ir s t , attem pts were made to a ss e s s the r e l i - I a b ilit y and v a lid ity o f the models by sim ulating the con** t r o l and experim ental groups through e ith e r the c o n tr o l or experim ental program. Second, attem pts were made to a ss e s s the p o te n tia l value o f the sim u lation fo r optim izing pro gram outcomes by d ecreasin g the lik e lih o o d o f program | term in a tio n , runaways, and recid iv ism fo r the su b je cts under stu d y . Third, attem pts were made to sim ulate hypo t h e t i c a l , th e o r e tic a l ty p es through e ith e r program in order to a ss e s s the adequacy o f the th e o r e tic a l stru ctu re o f the experim ental and c o n tro l programs. The computer program used to implement the sim u lation may be found in Appendix C . R e lia b ility and V a lid ity o f the Sim ulation In the con text o f t h is d is s e r ta tio n , the term r e l i a b i l i t y w i l l be d efin ed as the degree to which the sim u lation y ie ld e d c o n s is te n t r e s u lts fo r the experim ental 115 Il6~ and c o n tro l groups. Sin ce both groups were randomly- assign ed to th e ir r e sp e c tiv e treatm ent programs, they were e s s e n t ia lly sim ila r b efore en terin g th e ir programs. I t w i l l be r e c a lle d from Chapter I I I th a t randomization pro cedures w ere, in f a c t , e f f e c t iv e ly implemented and th a t the two groups d iffe r e d s ig n if ic a n t ly on only a few v a r ia b le s . i I I f the sim u lation were r e lia b le , th e r e fo r e , we would expect sim ila r r e s u lt s i f we ran both the experim ental and co n tro l groups through the experim ental program. The same would j i be expected i f we ran both groups through the co n tro l pro gram. I f sim ulated c o n tr o l program r e s u lt s were appre c ia b ly d iffe r e n t fo r the experim ental and con trol sam ples, I or i f sim ulated experim ental program r e s u lts were appre- j c ia b ly d iffe r e n t fo r the two sam ples, then the sim u lation j would be u n r e lia b le . In b r ie f , sim u lation through a given program should y ie ld c o n siste n t r e s u lt s fo r both samples in order to be considered r e lia b le . V a lid ity w ill be defin ed as the ex ten t to which sim ulated r e s u lts are the same as a ctu a l r e s u lt s . I f we sim ulated the experim ental group through the experim ental program and discovered th a t the r e s u lts did n ot match what a c tu a lly happened fo r the experim ental group, then se rio u s q u estion s would be r a ise d about the v a lid it y o f the sim ula t io n . I f , on the other hand, sim ulated r e s u lts were h ig h ly congruent w ith a ctu a l r e s u lt s , then problems o f v a lid it y would n o t be as s e r io u s . The same h old s true fo r 117 c o m p ariso n s betw een a c t u a l and s im u la te d c o n tr o l o u tco m es. T hus, th e term v a l i d i t y , w ith in th e c o n te x t o f t h i s d i s s e r t a t i o n , w i l l be u s e d to r e f e r to th e e x te n t t h a t th e sim u l a t e d r e s u l t s f o r a g iv e n sam ple w ere c o n g ru e n t w ith th e r e s u l t s t h a t a c t u a l l y o c c u rre d . B oth th e c o n c e p ts o f v a l i d i t y and r e l i a b i l i t y a re i l l u s t r a t e d i n F ig u re 8 . T able 5 shows th e b a s ic g ro u p outcom es n e c e s s a ry to j i e v a lu a tin g th e r e l i a b i l i t y and v a l i d i t y o f th e s im u la tio n . The ta b l e shows th e fo llo w in g th r e e ty p e s o f in fo rm a tio n f o r th e e x p e rim e n ta l program : ( 1 ) th e a c t u a l o u tp u ts o b se rv e d ; ( 2 ) th e o u tp u ts w hich w ere o b se rv e d when th e e x p e rim e n ta l g ro u p was s im u la te d th ro u g h th e e x p e rim e n ta l program ; and (3 ) th e o u tp u ts w hich w ere o b se rv e d when th e c o n tr o l g ro u p was s im u la te d th ro u g h th e e x p e rim e n ta l , p r o - | gram . F o r th e c o n tr o l program th e fo llo w in g th r e e s i m i l a r ty p e s o f o u tp u ts a re a ls o shown: ( 1 ) th e a c tu a l o u tp u ts o b se rv e d f o r th e c o n tr o l g ro u p ; ( 2 ) th e o u tp u ts w hich w ere o b se rv e d when th e c o n t r o l group was s im u la te d th ro u g h th e c o n tr o l program ; and ( 3 ) th e o u tp u ts w hich w ere o b se rv e d when th e e x p e rim e n ta l g ro u p was s im u la te d th ro u g h th e con t r o l p ro g ram . D e s c rip tiv e in fo r m a tio n i n th e form o f g ro u p m eans and s ta n d a rd d e v ia tio n s i s p ro v id e d on th e fo llo w in g m ea su res: s o c io m e tric s ta n d in g , num ber o f c r i t i c a l i n c i d e n ts , g ra d e p o in t a v e r a g e , num ber o f ru n aw ay s, program t e r m in a tio n , le n g th o f tim e i n program i f g r a d u a tio n , SdTU^_E^EMMMTAL EESUiTsJ I VALIDITY SIM ULATED EESULTS POR EXPERIM ENTAL G R O U P RELIABILITY SIM ULATED EESULTS POR . EXPERIM ENTAL G R O U P RELIABILITY TO TA L SA M P L E - O P DELINQ UENTS SIM ULATION O P C O N T R O L .G R O U P SIM ULATION O P EXPERIM ENTAL P R O G R A M SIM ULATED EESULTS POR C O N T R O L G R O U P SIM ULATED RESULTS POR C O N T R O L G R O U P f VALIDITY i _ _ .............. ..... f A CTU A L C O N T R O L B E SU L T S"! I — ------------------------------- - P ig . 8 . — Types o f r e s u l t s and co m p ariso n s in v o lv e d i n a s s e s s in g th e r e l i a b i l i t y and v a l i d i t y o f th e s im u la tio n H 00 - TABLE 5 GROUP OUTCOM ES PROM THE SIMULATE EXPERIMENTAL PROGRAM CONTROL PROGRAM V a r ia b le s A c tu a l O utput f o r E xperim ental Group S im u la te d O utput f o r E xperim ental Group S im u la te d O utput f o r C o n tro l Group A c tu a l O u tp u t f o r C o n tro l Group S im u la te d O u tp u t f o r C o n tro l Group S im u la te d O utput f o r E x p e rim e n ta l Group X SL X SL X SL X SL X SL X SL S o c io m e tric 2 .b-7 .9 6 2 .^ 9 .b-5 2 .6 0 C r i t i c a l I n c i d e n ts l.b-5 2 .1 1 - .82 1 .2 3 - .9b- 1 .3 5 G rades l . b -6 .93 1 .2 1 .58 1 .1 5 .63 2 .2 5 .97 - . .1 7 1.3b- .05 1 .2 3 Number o f Run aways .53 .6 7 .92 .29 .97 .31 M> .73 - .83 .7b- - .88 .6 7 T e rm in a tio n 1 .8 5 .36 2 .1 9 .25 2.2 3 .28 1 .8 5 .35 . 1 .7 9 .31 1 .7 5 .29 I f G ra d u a tio n : L ength o f Time 3 .1 6 .81 3 M 3 .3 1 .58 6 .7 5 1 .8 1 6 .7 1 l.b-3 6 .5 9 1 .3 2 I f T erm ination: L en g th o f Time 1 .3 6 1 .1 6 1 .2 6 .77 1 .6 5 .81 3 .1 8 2 .3 ^ 3 .0 2 2 .1 1 2 .9 0 2 . 2b - H t— 1 VO TABLE 5— Continued EXPERIMENTAL PROGRAM CONTROL PROGRAM V a r ia b le s A c tu a l O utput f o r E xperim ental Group S im u la te d O utput f o i E x p e rim en tal Group S im u la te d O utput f o r C o n tro l Group A c tu a l O u tp u t f o r C o n tro l Group S im u la te d O u tp u t f o r C o n tro l Group S im u la te d O utput f o r E x p e rim e n ta l Group X SB I SB X SB X SB : x SB X SB I f G ra d u a tio n : F requency o f R e c id iv ism M 1 .0 0 M .8 2 1 .3 7 .81 .36 .85 .**9 .5 2 .5 2 .58 I f T erm ination: F req u en cy o f R e c id iv ism .97 1 .2 8 .96 .&* 1 .1 0 .8 7 .95 .99 .93 .83 1 .0 2 .92 I f R e c id iv ism : L ength o f Time 3 .8 6 3 .2 6 3 .9 2 2 M 3 .9 6 2 .8 1 h .k l 2.8 8 5 .3 0 3 .1 9 5 .1 5 2 .8 5 121 frequency o f recid iv ism i f term inee or runaway and len g th o f time before f i r s t r e c id iv is t o ffe n s e . By way o f review , i t w ill be r e c a lle d th a t so c io m etric sta n d in g , which was measured only a t the experimen t a l program, r e fe r s to how w e ll lik e d a given boy was and how w e ll he lik e d o th e r s , th a t c r i t i c a l in c id e n ts were j measures o f problem behavior a t the experim ental program and th a t grade-p oint average measured the le v e l o f academic performances o f s u b je c ts . "Humber o f runaways" measured how many tim es a given boy l e f t e ith e r program w ithout a u th o riz a tio n fo r a period o f time exceeding one day. Most runaways were permanent and r e su lte d in a given su b ject being dropped from e ith e r program. Termination refer r ed to whether or n ot a su b je ct was r elea sed from the program due to h is in c o r r ig ib ilit y . Unlike a runaway, a term ination r e su lte d from a s t a f f d e c isio n to r e le a s e a boy and thus was n o t a v o lit io n a l a c t on the part o f the respondent. I f a su b ject did n ot run away permanently or was not t e r - j m inated, then he su c c e s s fu lly graduated from e ith e r program. P in a lly , a v e iy str in g e n t measure o f recid iv ism was used* I t was based on the number o f o ffic ia lly -r e c o r d e d a r r e sts encountered by a given boy w ith in f i f t e e n months a ft e r h is r e le a s e , (liven both a ctu a l and sim ulated r e s u lts on th ese m easures, i t i s then p o ssib le to a s s e s s the r e l i a b i l i t y and v a lid it y o f the sim u la tio n . In order to a s s e s s the r e l i a b i l i t y o f the 1 2 2 s im u la tio n , co m p ariso n s w ere made betw een th e s im u la te d outcom es f o r c o n tr o l and e x p e rim e n ta l g ro u p s w hich w ere o b serv e d a s a r e s u l t o f ru n n in g them th ro u g h e i t h e r th e e x p e rim e n ta l o r c o n tr o l p ro g ram . A c r i t i c a l r a t i o t e s t o f th e d if f e r e n c e betw een means o f in d e p e n d e n t, random sam p les ( c f . McNemar, 1 9 6 2 :8 3 ) was u s e d i n a l l in s ta n c e s to a s s e s s i th e m ag n itu d es o f th e d if f e r e n c e s o b s e rv e d . The r e s u l t s o fj i th e s e t e s t s may be fo u n d i n T ab le 6 . The f i r s t colum n o f j i th e ta b l e shows th e s ig n if ic a n c e o f th e d if f e r e n c e s b etw een m eans o f th e e x p e rim e n ta l and c o n tr o l g ro u p s a f t e r th e y w ere s im u la te d th ro u g h th e e x p e rim e n ta l p ro g ram . The second colum n shows th e s ig n if ic a n c e o f th e d if f e r e n c e s j betw een th e s e two g ro u p s a f t e r b e in g s im u la te d th ro u g h th e j c o n tr o l pro g ram . No r i g i d c r i t e r i a f o r d e te rm in in g w hich d if f e r e n c e s w ere s i g n i f i c a n t o r n o t w ere u s e d i n t h i s i s tu d y . In m ost s o c ia l s c ie n c e r e s e a r c h , how ever, i t i s ! t r a d i t i o n a l to u se th e .0 5 l e v e l a s a c u t t i n g p o i n t . T h at i s , d if f e r e n c e s w hich p o s s e s s ch ance p r o b a b i l i t i e s s m a lle r j th a n t h i s l e v e l a re g e n e r a lly a c c e p te d a s s i g n i f i c a n t . D if fe r e n c e s w hich p o s s e s s chance p r o b a b i l i t i e s l a r g e r th a n t h i s l e v e l a re g e n e r a lly c o n s id e re d n o n s ig n i f i c a n t . O v e r a ll, th e s im u la tio n seems to p o s s e s s a r e l a t i v e l y h ig h d eg ree o f r e l i a b i l i t y . None o f th e d if f e r e n c e s betw een th e two g ro u p s c o n c e rn in g s im u la te d c o n tr o l program outcom es a c h ie v e d a h ig h l e v e l o f s ig n i f i c a n c e . Only two 123 TABLE 6 TESTS OF SIGNIFICANCE BETW EEN SIMULATED CONTROL GROUP OUTCOM ES AND SIMULATED EXPERIMENTAL GROUP OUTCOMES: AN ASSESSMENT OF.RELIABILITY V a ria b le S ig n if ic a n c e o f th e D if fe r e n c e s betw een th e Two Groups a f t e r S im u la tio n th ro u g h th e E x p e rim e n ta l Program S ig n ific a n c e o f th e D iffe re n c e s betw een th e Two Groups a f t e r S im u la tio n th ro u g h th e C o n tro l Program S o c io m e tric t = 1 .8 3 ; P < .0 7 C r i t i c a l I n c id e n ts t = .7 1 ; P < M G rades t = .7 5 ; P < M t = 1 .2 9 ; P < .20 Number o f Runaways t = 1 .2 5 ; P < .21 t = .56; P < .58 T e rm in a tio n t = 1 .3 3 ; P < .18 t = 1 .0 0 ; P < .32 I f G ra d u a tio n : L en g th o f Time t = .5 7 ; P < .5 7 t = .71; P < MQ I f T e rm in a tio n o r Runaway: L en g th o f Time t = 3 .9 0 ; P < .001 t = .*f3; P < .6 7 I f G ra d u a tio n : F req u en cy o f R e c id iv ism t = 8 .2 7 ; P < .001 t = .^ 3 ; P < .6 7 I f T e rm in a tio n o r Runaway: F req u en cy o f R e c id iv ism t = 1 .2 7 ; P < .20 t s .8 2 ; P < M l I f R e c id iv ism : L en g th o f Time t * .1 1 ; P < .91 t = .38; P < .7 0 12k I o f th e d if f e r e n c e s betw een s im u la te d e x p e rim e n ta l program i ; outcom es w ere s i g n i f i c a n t a t a h ig h l e v e l , and o n ly one o f th e te n d if f e r e n c e s a c h ie v e d s ig n if ic a n c e a t a m o d erate l e v e l . The two s i g n i f i c a n t d if f e r e n c e s f o r th e exp erim en t a l program in v o lv e d m easu res o f le n g th o f tim e i n t r e a t m ent and th e fre q u e n c y o f r e c id iv is m , f i r s t , th e c o n t r o l j l g ro u p was e s tim a te d to have a much lo n g e r le n g th o f tim e i n j tr e a tm e n t f o r te rm in e e s and runaw ays th a n th e e x p e rim e n ta l | g ro u p ( t = 3 .9 0 , P < .0 0 1 ). S econd, th e c o n tr o l g ro u p was e s tim a te d to have a much h ig h e r fre q u e n c y o f r e c id iv is m f o r program g ra d u a te s th a n th e e x p e rim e n ta ls ( t = 8 .2 7 , P < .0 0 1 ) . T hus, th e r e l i a b i l i t y o f s im u la te d e x p e rim e n ta l i outcom es f o r th e s e two m easu res i s lo w , o r e l s e s u b je c t to ; I q u e s tio n . W hether th e s e d if f e r e n c e s a r e due to p ro b lem s ! in h e r e n t i n th e s im u la tio n , o r due to chance d if f e r e n c e s j betw een th e two sam p les w i l l n o t be i n v e s t i g a t e d a t t h i s j p o i n t . One o th e r d if f e r e n c e c o n c e rn in g th e r e l i a b i l i t y o f th e e x p e rim e n ta l program s im u la tio n b e a r s m e n tio n . The c o n tr o l g ro u p was e s tim a te d to have a h ig h e r av e ra g e s o c io - m e tric s ta n d in g th a n th e e x p e rim e n ta ls ( t = 1 .8 3 , P < .0 7 )* T h is d if f e r e n c e was n o t a s la r g e a s th e two d is c u s s e d i n th e p re v io u s p a ra g ra p h , b u t s t i l l r a i s e s a c e r t a i n d e g re e o f u n c e r t a i n t y a b o u t th e r e l i a b i l i t y o f t h i s a s p e c t o f th e e x p e rim e n ta l s im u la tio n . 125 An a sse ssm e n t o f th e v a l i d i t y o f th e s im u la tio n may he fo u n d i n T ab le 7 . The f i r s t colum n o f t h i s t a b l e shows th e s ig n if ic a n c e o f th e mean d if f e r e n c e s betw een a c t u a l and s im u la te d e x p e rim e n ta l group o u tco m es. The second colum n shows th e s ig n if ic a n c e o f th e mean d if f e r e n c e s betw een a c tu a l and s im u la te d c o n tr o l o u tco m es. In a l l i n s t a n c e s , a ■ c r i t i c a l r a t i o t e s t o f th e mean d i f f e r e n c e s betw een two | c o r r e l a t e d sam ples ( c f . McNemar? 1 9 6 2 : 80- 8 2 ) was u s e d . P o r th e e x p e rim e n ta l p ro g ram , f iv e o f th e te n c r i t i c a l r a t i o t e s t s a c h ie v e d a h ig h d e g re e o f s t a t i s t i c a l s ig n i f i c a n c e . The e s tim a te d mean num ber o f c r i t i c a l i n c i d e n ts was fo u n d to be much lo w e r th a n w hat was a c t u a l l y o b serv ed ( t = 1 2 .6 1 , P < .0 0 1 ). E s tim a te s o f g r a d e - p o in t a v e ra g e ( t = 2 .2 7 , P < .0 2 ) , num ber o f runaw ays ( t = 7 .8 0 , | i P < .0 0 1 ) , and te r m in a tio n ( t = 1 1 .3 3 ? P < .0 0 1 ) w ere a ls o found to be much lo w e r th a n a c tu a l o u tco m es. The e s tim a te d mean le n g th o f tim e i n tre a tm e n t f o r program g r a d u a te s was found to be much h ig h e r th a n w hat a c t u a l l y o c c u rre d ( t = 2 .7 2 , P < .0 0 7 ). P o r th e c o n tr o l p ro g ram , two o f th e e i g h t c r i t i c a l r a t i o t e s t s a c h ie v e d a h ig h d eg ree o f s t a t i s t i c a l s i g n i f i c a n c e . E s tim a te s o f mean g r a d e -p o in t a v e ra g e ( t 3 2 0 .1 7 ? P < . 0 0 1 ) and o f num ber o f runaw ays ( t = I 1 **33? P < .0 0 1 ) w ere s i g n i f i c a n t l y lo w e r th a n a c tu a l o u tco m es. I n a d d itio n , a m o d e ra te ly s i g n i f i c a n t d if f e r e n c e was fo u n d r e g a rd in g 126 TABLE 7 TESTS OP SIGNIFICANCE BETW EEN SIMULATED PROGRAM OUTCOM ES AND ACTUAL PROGRAM OUTCOMES: AN ASSESSMENT OF VALIDITY V a ria b le E x p e rim e n ta l Group C o n tro l Group S o c io m e tric C r i t i c a l I n c id e n ts G rades Number o f Runaways T e rm in a tio n I f G ra d u a tio n : Length, o f Time I f T e rm in a tio n o r Runaway: L en g th o f Time I f G ra d u a tio n : F req u en cy o f R e c id iv ism If T e rm in a tio n o r Runaway: F req u en cy of R e c id iv ism I f R e c id iv ism : L e n g th o f Time t = .25; P < .80 t = 1 2 .6 1 ; P < .001 t = 2 .2 7 ; P < .0 2 t = 7 .8 0 ; P < .001 t = 1 1 .3 3 ; P < .001 t = 2 .7 2 ; P < .0 0 7 t = .7 1 ; P < .Mi t = .15; P < .89 t = .0 7 ; P < .9 ^ t * .l*f; P < .89 t = 2 0 .1 7 ; P < .001 t = 1 ^ .3 3 ; P < .001 t = 1 .5 0 ; P < .13 t = .1 6 ; P < .8 7 t * M i P < .67 t 1 5 1 .1 8 ; P < .2*f t = .1 3 ; P < .90 t = 1 .8 2 ; P < .0 7 127 le n g th o f tim e b e fo re r e c id iv is m , w ith th e e s tim a te d mean b e in g h ig h e r th a n th e a c t u a l mean ( t = 1 .8 2 , P < .0 7 ) . T h u s, th e v a l i d i t y o f th e s im u la tio n seems to be much lo w e r th a n i t s r e l i a b i l i t y . A bout e ig h t o f th e e ig h te e n c r i t i c a l r a t i o t e s t s a c h ie v e d a h ig h d e g ree o f s t a t i s t i c a l s i g n i f i c a n c e . T h is s u g g e s ts t h a t c e r t a i n r e s u l t s o f th e s im u la tio n sh o u ld be exam ined and i n t e r p r e te d w ith c a u tio n . P o r b o th th e e x p e rim e n ta l and c o n tr o l p ro g ra m s, th e s im u la tio n i s l i k e l y to u n d e re s tim a te g ra d e - p o in t a v e ra g e and num ber o f ru n aw ay s. In a d d i t i o n , f o r th e e x p e rim e n ta l p ro g ram , i t i s l i k e l y to u n d e re s tim a te c r i t i - j c a l i n c i d e n t s and program te r m in a tio n s , w h ile o v e r e s tim a t in g th e le n g th o f tim e i n tre a tm e n t f o r program g r a d u a te s . i P o r th e c o n tr o l p ro g ram , i t i s a ls o l i k e l y to o v e re s tim a te j le n g th o f tim e a f t e r program r e le a s e b e fo re r e c id iv is m . O v e r a ll, th e f in d in g s s u g g e s t t h a t th e m easu res o f program r e l e a s e — runaw ays and te r m in a tio n — s h o u ld be i n t e r p r e t e d w ith c a u tio n when th e y a r e s im u la te d . S im u la te d m easu res o f r e c id iv is m c an be i n t e r p r e t e d w ith a h ig h e r d e g re e o f c o n fid e n c e . O p tim iz a tio n o f System Outcomes One im p o rta n t i s s u e t h i s s im u la tio n can be u s e d to d e a l w ith h a s to do w ith th e o p tim iz a tio n o f system o u t com es. What w ould h ap p en i f te rm in e e s and r e c i d i v i s t s from i th e e x p e rim e n ta l program w ere p la c e d i n th e c o n tr o l program? . Would t h e i r ch an ces o f s u c c e s s he i n c r e a s e d , o r w ould t h e i r b e h a v io r c o n tin u e to be p ro b le m a tic ? The same q u e s tio n s m ig h t be ash ed c o n c e rn in g te rm in e e s and r e c i d i v i s t s from th e c o n tr o l p ro g ram . I f i t w ere p o s s ib le to a s s ig n d e l i n q u e n ts to e i t h e r th e e x p e rim e n ta l o r c o n tr o l p ro g ram , n o t by random o r a r b i t r a r y p r o c e d u re s , b u t on th e b a s is o f w hich program w ould m ost l i k e l y a l t e r t h e i r d e lin q u e n c y , | th e n a much more e f f i c i e n t u s e o f th e c o r r e c t i o n a l a l t e r n a t i v e s u n d e r stu d y c o u ld be th e r e s u l t . In d e e d , i f su ch an optimum u s e o f c o r r e c t i o n a l a l t e r n a t i v e s c o u ld be p u t i n t o e f f e c t , i t c o u ld be one o f th e m ost d ra m a tic and im p o rta n t p r a c t i c a l c o n tr ib u tio n s a s im u la tio n o f t h i s n a tu r e w ould m ake. U n f o r tu n a te ly , th e f in d in g s o f th e v a l i d i t y o f t h i s t I s im u la tio n c a s t a q u e s tio n o f d o u b t on th e t r u t h v a lu e o f c e r t a i n a s p e c ts o f o p tim iz a tio n . T h at i s , i n some ! in s ta n c e s th e e r r o r c o n ta in e d i n th e s im u la tio n w i l l make i t d i f f i c u l t to a s s e r t , w ith a h ig h d e g re e o f c o n f id e n c e , w hat th e e f f e c t s o f o p tim iz a tio n m ig h t b e . More w i l l be s a id o f t h i s l a t e r i n t h i s d is c u s s io n . T a b le s 8 , 9 and 10 show th e r e s u l t s o f th e s e p ro c e d u re s f o r th e e x p e rim e n ta l g ro u p . As c a n be se e n i n T ab le 8 , th r e e ty p e s o f program r e l e a s e w ere e n c o u n te re d by e x p e rim e n ta l b o y s: 9+ w ere g r a d u a te d , 58 ra n aw ay, and 23 w ere te rm in a te d from th e program b e fo re c o m p le tio n . When t h i s same g ro u p was s im u la te d th ro u g h th e c o n tr o l program 1 129 TABLE 8 COMPARISON OP ACTUAL PROGRAM RELEASE RATES OP EXPERIMENTALS WITH SIMULATED CONTROL PROGRAM RATES Type o f R e le a se A c tu a l E x p e ri m e n ta l Program S im u la te d Con t r o l Program F req u en cy P e r C ent F requency P e r Cent G ra d u ates 5*f ifO 119 88 Runaways 58 58 5 if T erm inees 23 17 11 8 table; 9 C O M PA R ISO N O P A C TU A L EXPERIM ENTAL G R O U P RECIDIVISM W ITH SIM ULATED P E R F O R M A N C E IN T H E C O N T R O L P R O G R A M A ctual E xperi m ental Program Sim ulated Control Program Graduation Runaway Termination Graduation 50 1 3 (3 7 $ )* (1 $ ) (2 $ ) Runaway 51 3 if (3 8 $ ) (2 $ ) (3 $ ) Termination 18 1 if (1 3 $ ) (1 $ ) (3 $ ) ^Percentages based on grand t o t a l 130 TABLE 10 COMPARISON OP ACTUAL EXPERIMENTAL GROUP RECIDIVISM WITH SIMULATED PERFORMANCE IN THE CONTROL PROGRAM A c tu a l E x p e ri m en tal Program S im u la te d C o n tro l Program N o n re cid iv ism R e c id iv ism T o ta l N o n re c id iv ism 33 ( 2 W * * + 6 < 3 W 79 (58*) R e c id iv ism 21 <16* ) 35 (2 6 * ) 56 O fl* ) T o ta l % (4o*) 81 (6 0 * ) 1 3 1 (1 0 0 * ) ^Percentages based on grand t o t a l . th e ty p e o f program r e l e a s e changed m arkedly* Of th e 135 e x p e r im e n ta ls , 119 w ould have g ra d u a te d from th e c o n tr o l p ro g ram , 5 w ould have ru n away and 8 w ould have b een t e r m in a te d . T h is r e p r e s e n t s a d r a s t i c im provem ent i n program e f f e c t i v e n e s s , b u t i t m u st be rem em bered t h a t th e v a l i d i t y o f t h i s a s p e c t o f th e s im u la tio n i s s u b je c t to q u e s tio n . T a b le 9 i n d i c a t e s th e r e s u l t s t h a t c o u ld be i o b ta in e d i f bo y s w ere a s s ig n e d to e i t h e r program on th e | b a s is o f o p tim iz in g t h e i r p erfo rm an ces* The r e s u l t s o f o p tim iz a tio n p ro c e d u re s a r e a s f o llo w s : Of th e 5b e x p e rim e n ta l g r a d u a te s , 50 w ould h av e g ra d u a te d from th e c o n t r o l p ro g ram , 1 w ould have ru n away and 3 w ould have b een te r m in a te d . Of th e 58 runaw ays from th e e x p e rim e n ta l p ro g ra m , 51 w ould have g ra d u a te d from th e c o n tr o l p ro g ram , 3 w ould have ru n aw ay, and b w ould h av e b een te r m in a te d . Of th e 23 te r m in e e s . 18 w ould have g ra d u a t e d , 1 w ould have ru n aw ay, and b w ould have been t e r m in a te d . In sum, i f o p tim iz a tio n p ro c e d u re s h ad b een im p le m en ted , and i f s u b je c ts had b een a s s ig n e d to e i t h e r th e e x p e rim e n ta l o r c o n tr o l program i n a m anner su ch a s to im prove t h e i r p e rfo rm a n c e s , th e n program outcome w ould have b e en d r a s t i c a l l y im p ro v ed . The r a t e o f program g r a d u a tio n f o r th e 135 e x p e rim e n ta l s u b je c ts w ould have been in c r e a s e d d r a s t i c a l l y from *K ) p e r c e n t to 91 p e r c e n tj The runaw ay 132 r a t e f o r t h i s group o f s u b je c ts w ould have been d e c re a s e d from M -3 p e r c e n t to 2 p e r c e n t . F in a l l y ) th e te r m in a tio n r a t e w ould have been re d u c e d from 17 p e r c e n t to b p e r c e n t. There was o n ly a sm all group o f 12 b oys (9 p e r c e n t o f th e t o t a l ) who w ould e i t h e r ru n away o r be te rm in a te d from b o th p ro g ra m s. T ab le 10 i n d i c a t e s th e r e s u l t s o f o p tim izatio n p r o - j c e d u re s f o r th e e x p e rim e n ta l s u b je c ts c o n c e rn in g r e c id iv is m . The s im u la tio n o f r e c id iv is m , i t w i l l be r e c a l l e d , r e p r e s e n ts one o f th e more v a l i d a s p e c ts o f th e s im u la tio n . In te rm s o f a c tu a l outcom e, 79 o f th e e x p e rim e n ta ls (58 p e r c e n t o f th e t o t a l ) w ere n o n r e c i d i v is t s and 56 (M -l p e r c e n t) w ere r e c i d i v i s t s . Of th e 79 n o n r e c i d i v i s t s , ^6 w ould have r e c i d i v a t e d h ad th e y b een a s s ig n e d to th e c o n tr o l p ro g ram . Of th e 56 r e c i d i v i s t s , 21 w ould n o t have r e c id iv a te d h ad ! th e y b een a s s ig n e d to th e c o n tr o l p ro g ram . T hus, i f o p t i m iz a tio n p ro c e d u re s h ad b een im plem ented f o r th e g ro u p o f e x p e rim e n ta l s u b je c ts , t h e i r t o t a l n o n re c id iv is m r a t e w ould have b een in c r e a s e d from 58 p e r c e n t to 7b p e r c e n t , a s iz a b le im provem ent. T here was a g ro u p o f 35 boys (2 6 p e r c e n t o f a l l e x p e rim e n ta ls ) who w ould be l i k e l y to r e c i d i v a te a f t e r r e le a s e from e i t h e r p ro g ram . I t i s im p o rta n t to p o in t o u t h e re t h a t th e s im u la t i o n o f program r e le a s e and r e c id iv is m r e p r e s e n t two d i s t i n c t a s p e c ts o f th e s im u la tio n . The two w ere k e p t _ 333' separate because the former p o sse sse s a low degree o f v a lid it y w h ile the l a t t e r does n o t co n ta in v a lid ity prob lem s to the same e x te n t. Combining the two, i t was f e l t , would only have a contam inating e f f e c t . Treating th ese two measures se p a r a te ly , however, obscures the f a c t th a t many runaways and term inees did n ot r e c id iv a te . I f , in fu tu re sim u lation problems o f t h is n a tu re, v a lid estim a tes o f j "type o f program relea se" could be ob tain ed , then i t would be im portant to combine th ese e stim a te s w ith e stim a te s o f r e c id iv ism . I t might be the c a se , fo r example, th a t the only circum stances under which a boy would n ot r e c id iv a te would be through running away from e ith e r program. i ! Although t h is example i s only an h y p o th e tic a l one, i t I i ll u s t r a t e s th a t combining estim a tes o f "type o f program relea se" w ith r ecid iv ism could y ie ld im portant in form ation . One a d d itio n a l problem needs m ention. A ll e s t i mates o f runaways from e ith e r program were trea ted as i f they were permanent. T his was n ot n e c e s s a r ily the case in p r a c tic e . Although most runaways were permanent, some o f the boys who ran away returned to t h e ir programs and went on to su c c e ssfu l grad u ation s. I t i s beyond the c a p a c ity o f t h is sim u la tio n , however, to provide e stim a tes o f which runaways would be permanent or n o t. The r e s u lt o f t h is problem i s th a t the e x te n t of permanent runaways has been overestim ated . This i s e s p e c ia lly true fo r the sim u lation o f th e e x p e rim e n ta l p ro g ra m , a s w i l l he seen i n th e n e x t a n a l y s i s . S a b le s 1 1 , 1 2 , and 13 show th e r e s u l t s o f o p tim iz a t i o n p ro c e d u re s f o r th e c o n tr o l s u b j e c t s . As may be se e n i n S ab le 1 1 , **0 p e r c e n t o f th e 102 c o n tr o l s u b je c ts had su c c e s s f u l program g r a d u a tio n s , ^9 p e r c e n t r a n away and 11 p e r c e n t w ere te r m in a te d . She r e s u l t s o f s im u la tin g th e ; j c o n tr o l g ro u p th ro u g h th e e x p e rim e n ta l program showed o n ly j a 9 p e r c e n t g r a d u a tio n r a t e , a 91 p e r c e n t runaway r a t e and no f a i l u r e s . O b v io u sly , th e e x p e rim e n ta l s im u la tio n i s in a c c u r a te i n e s tim a tin g "ty p e o f program r e le a s e " and c r e a t e s an overabundance o f ru n aw ay s. She r e s u l t s o f o p tim iz a tio n p ro c e d u re s may be found i n S ab le 1 2 . Of th e *fl c o n tr o l g r a d u a te s , *+0 w ould h av e ru n away from th e j e x p e rim e n ta l program and o n ly 1 w ould have s u c c e s s f u lly g r a d u a te d . Of th e 50 runaw ays from th e c o n tr o l p ro g ram , 8 w ould hav e s u c c e s s f u lly g ra d u a te d from th e e x p e rim e n t and k-2 w ould have r u n . A ll o f th e 11 te rm in e e s from th e c o n tr o l program w ould have ru n from th e e x p e rim e n t. In sum, i f o p tim iz a tio n p ro c e d u re s had been im plem ented f o r th e c o n tr o l s u b j e c t s , t h e i r o v e r a ll r a t e o f g r a d u a tio n w ould have in c r e a s e d from kO p e r c e n t to ^-8 p e r c e n t . She runaw ay r a t e w ould have d e c re a s e d s l i g h t l y from *+9 p e r c e n t to * + 1 p e r c e n t , and te r m in a tio n s c o u ld have b een t o t a l l y e lim i n a te d . F i f t y - t h r e e c o n tr o l b o y s, 52 p e r c e n t o f th e t o t a l , 135 TABLE 11 COMPARISON OP ACTUAL PROCRAM RELEASE RATES OP EXPERIMENTALS WITH SIMULATED CONTROL PROGRAM RATES Type o f R e le a se A c tu a l C o n tro l Program S im u la te d E x p e ri m e n tal Program F requency P e r C ent F requency P e r C ent G raduate h i ho 9 9 Runaway 50 ^9 93 91 Term inee 11 11 0 0 TABLE 12 COMPARISON OP THE ACTUAL PROGRAM RELEASES OP EXPERIMENTALS WITH THEIR SIMULATED PERPORMANCES IN THE CONTROL PRO G RA M A c tu a l C o n tro l Program S im u la te d E x p e rim e n ta l Program G rad u atio n Runaway T e rm in a tio n G ra d u a tio n a i b * ko 0 Runaway 8 (&%) b2 (bl% ) 0 T e rm in a tio n 0 11 (11%) 0 ^ P e rc e n ta g e s b a se d on g ra n d t o t a l . 136 TABLE 13 COMPARISON OP ACTUAL CONTROL GROUP RECIDIVISM WITH SIMULATED PERFORMANCE IN THE CONTROL PROGRAM A c tu a l C o n tro l S im u la te d E x p e rim e n ta l Program Program N o n re c id iv ism R e c id iv ism T o ta l 1 N o n re c id iv ism 17 (1756)* * * 9 ( W ) 66 (6556) R ec id iv ism 8 ( 8J6) 28 (2 7 $ ) 36 (3 5 ) T o ta l 25 (2556) 77 (7556) 102 (1 0 0 $ ) ^ P e rc e n ta g e s b a s e d on g ra n d t o t a l . 137 w ould hav e ru n away o r been te rm in a te d from e i t h e r p ro g ram . T ab le 13 shows th e r e s u l t s f o r r e c id iv is m . S ix ty - f iv e p e r c e n t o f th e 102 c o n tr o l s u b je c ts w ere n o n r e c id i v i s t s , w ith th e re m a in in g 35 p e r c e n t r e c i d i v a t in g w ith in f i f t e e n m onths a f t e r t h e i r r e l e a s e . Of th e 66 n o n r e c id i v i s t s from th e c o n tr o l g ro u p , *+ 9 w ould hav e r e c i d i v a t e d had i th e y b een a s s ig n e d to th e e x p e rim e n ta l p ro g ram . Of th e 36 ; j r e c i d i v i s t s from th e c o n t r o l g ro u p , 8 w ould n o t have re c id i-j v a te d a f t e r r e le a s e from th e e x p e rim e n ta l p ro g ram . T hus, o p tim iz a tio n p ro c e d u re s w ould have in c r e a s e d th e non r e c id iv is m r a t e o f th e c o n tr o l s u b je c ts from i t s o r i g i n a l i i f ig u r e o f 65 p e r c e n t to 73 p e r c e n t . A g ain , th e r e was a j sm a ll g ro u p o f 28 boys (27 p e r c e n t o f th e t o t a l c o n t r o ls ) j who w ould have r e c i d i v a t e d from e i t h e r p ro g ram . | When th e s e f in d in g s a re exam ined i n term s o f th e t o t a l sam ple o f 237 s u b j e c t s , o p tim iz a tio n p ro c e d u re s y i e l d th e fo llo w in g r e s u l t s : 1 . Based on o r i g i n a l random s e le c t io n p r o c e d u re s , o n ly *+0 p e r c e n t o f th e t o t a l sam ple s u c c e s s f u l l y g ra d u a te d from e i t h e r p ro g ram . The re m a in in g 60 p e r c e n t w ere e i t h e r runaw ays o r te r m in e e s . B ased on o p tim iz a tio n p r o c e d u re s , 73 p e r c e n t o f th e t o t a l sam ple would have g ra d u a te d from e i t h e r program — an in c r e a s e o f 33 p e r c e n t o v e r th e o r i g i n a l r a t e o f program s u c c e s s . A sm a ll group o f bo y s— 27 p e r c e n t o f th e t o t a l — w ould n o t have g ra d u a te d from e i t h e r program . 2 . Based on o r i g i n a l random s e le c t io n p r o c e d u re s , a b o u t 59 p e r c e n t o f th e t o t a l sam ple was n o t o f f i c i a l l y in v o lv e d i n any la w - v io la tin g a c t i v i t y w ith in f i f t e e n m onths a f t e r r e le a s e from e i t h e r p ro g ram . O p tim iz a tio n p ro c e d u re s w ould j change t h i s f ig u r e to 72 p e r c e n t , an in c r e a s e j o f 13 p e rc e n ta g e p o i n t s . A g ain , a sm a ll g ro u p o f boys— 28 p e r c e n t o f th e t o t a l —w ould be | e x p e c te d to be d o u b le f a i l u r e s i n th e se n se t h a t th e y w ould n o t s ta y o u t o f tr o u b le a f t e r r e l e a s e from e i t h e r p ro g ram . i T h u s, to th e e x t e n t t h a t th e s im u la te was v a l i d , j i t c o u ld r e s u l t i n a much more e f f i c i e n t , and h o p e f u lly , humane m atch in g o f o f fe n d e r s to ty p e s o f c o r r e c tio n a l a l t e r n a t i v e s . H ow ever, im provem ents c o n c e rn in g th e v a l i d i t y o f th e s im u la tio n w ould be n e c e s s a ry b e fo re i t was p u t to u s e . The d e g ree o f e r r o r p r e s e n t i n th e s im u la tio n , a s i t now s ta n d s , w ould te n d to d im in is h th e d eg ree o f c o n f i dence t h a t c o u ld be p la c e d i n some o f i t s r e s u l t s . Of p a r t i c u l a r c o n cern a re e r r o r s i n e s tim a tin g ty p e o f r e l e a s e a t b o th th e e x p e rim e n ta l and c o n tr o l p ro g ram s. I t w i l l be rem em bered from an e a r l i e r s e c tio n o f t h i s c h a p te r t h a t th e 139 e s tim a te s o f runaw ays a t b o th program s and th e e s tim a te s o f te r m in a tio n a t th e e x p e rim e n ta l program c o n ta in e d a h ig h d e g re e o f e r r o r , and th u s a low d e g re e o f v a l i d i t y . E s t i m ates o f r e c id iv is m , h o w ev er, c o n ta in e d a re a s o n a b ly h ig h d e g re e o f v a l i d i t y and ca n th e r e f o r e be view ed w ith a g r e a t e r d e g re e o f c o n fid e n c e th a n th o s e o f program te rm in a t i o n . One re m a in in g i s s u e re g a rd in g o p tim iz a tio n sh o u ld be c o n s id e re d by f u tu r e r e s e a r c h i n t h i s a r e a , b u t w i l l n o t j i be a d d re s s e d by th e p r e s e n t s tu d y . The is s u e h a s to do w ith i s o l a t i n g th e ty p e s o f boys who do n o t do w e ll i n e i t h e r program — th e d o u b le f a i l u r e s — and f in d in g w hat k in d s o f c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s d i f f e r e n t i a t e them from o th e r ty p e s o f d e lin q u e n ts . Double f a i l u r e s r e p r e s e n t th e ty p e s o f boys f o r whom th e developm ent o f new c o r r e c t i o n a l a l t e r n a t i v e s i s b a d ly n e e d e d . I f t h e i r u n iq u e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s c o u ld be i s o l a t e d , and i f t h e o r ie s c o u ld be c o n s tr u c te d to e x p la in t h e i r p a r t i c u l a r ty p e s o f pro b lem s and b e h a v io r , th e n i c o r r e c t i o n a l s t r u c t u r e s m ig h t be l o g i c a l l y c r e a te d i n o r d e r to d e a l w ith them . I f , a s th e s im u la tio n to t h i s p o in t s u g g e s ts , c o r r e c t i o n a l p ro c e d u re s c an be made more e f f i c i e n t , th e n f o r whom? What ty p e s o f boys w ould do b e s t i n e i t h e r o f th e two c o r r e c t i o n a l a l t e r n a t i v e s u n d e r s tu d y ? I n o r d e r to p ro v id e a p a r t i a l an sw er to th e s e two q u e s tio n s , i t was I*f0 d e c id e d to c r e a te a s e r i e s o f h y p o th e tic a l i n d i v i d u a l s , each o f w hich had d i s t i n c t and t h e o r e t ic a l l y - r e le v a n t c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s . By s im u la tin g th e s e in d iv id u a ls th ro u g h e i t h e r p ro g ram , i t m ig h t th e n become p o s s ib le to i s o l a t e th e ty p e s o f t r a i t s r e l a t e d to d i f f e r e n t i a l program p e r f o r m ance. The r e s u l t s o f t h i s a s p e c t o f th e s im u la tio n a re r e p o r te d i n th e n e x t s e c t i o n . j S im u la tio n o f T h e o r e tic a l Types I I n C h ap te r I I i t was shown how th e tre a tm e n t s tr a t e g y o f th e e x p e rim e n ta l program was d e riv e d from a s e r i e s o f p o s tu l a t e s and theorem s a b o u t th e p r o c e s s e s t h a t le a d to d e lin q u e n c y . The e x p e rim e n ta l program w as, i n f a c t , d e sig n e d to d e a l w ith th e p ro b lem s o f a p a r t i c u l a r ty p e o f d e lin q u e n t: a ty p e o f d e lin q u e n t who was lo w e r- j c l a s s , who la c k e d l e g i t i m a t e a c h ie v e m e n t, who e x p e rie n c e d s t r a i n , and who s u b se q u e n tly i n t e r n a l i z e d a h ig h d e g re e o f i d e n t i f i c a t i o n w ith a d e lin q u e n t c o l l e c t i v i t y * B a r e ly , j | h o w ev er, do th e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f in d iv id u a ls conform to j id e a l i z e d t h e o r e t i c a l s ta te m e n ts . M o st, i f n o t a l l , o f th e d e lin q u e n ts i n t h i s s tu d y would be e x p e c te d to d e p a r t to a c e r t a i n d eg ree from one o r more o f th e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o u t lin e d i n th e th e o r y . An im p o rta n t m a n ip u la tio n f o r th e s im u la tio n , t h e r e f o r e , w ould be to c r e a te h y p o t h e t i c a l , t h e o r e t i c a l ty p e s whose c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s w ould be b a s e d on th e c e n t r a l c o n c e p ts o f th e th e o r y . 5 fT In o r d e r to do t h i s , th e c e n t r a l t h e o r e t i c a l con c e p ts w ere m easured i n te rm s o f th e fo llo w in g s c a le s w hich w ere d is c u s s e d i n C h a p te r I I I : 1 . S o c ia l C la s s was m easured i n te rm s o f th e Empey O c c u p a tio n a l P r e s tig e S c a le . 2 . A chievem ent was m easured i n term s o f th e sc h o o l i n t e r e s t , academ ic p erfo rm an ce and w ork b e h a v io r s c a l e s . ; 3 . S t r a i n was m easured i n term s o f th e fa m ily d i s - | o r g a n iz a tio n , s e lf - c o n c e p t, and a s p i r a t i o n s c a l e s . I n a d d itio n to th e s e th r e e back g ro u n d m e a su re s, th e te n s c a le s o f th e J e s n e s s P e r - ! so n a lity Inventory were a lso used to measure t h is con cep t. *f. P e e r I d e n t i f i c a t i o n was m easured i n te rm s o f th e r a t f i n k , a c e - i n - t h e - h o l e , s o c i a b i l i t y and d e v ian ce s c a l e s . 5 . D elinquency was m easured i n term s o f th e t h e f t , p e rs o n a l d is o r g a n iz a tio n , s t r e e t c o m e r , a u to m o b ile , fa m ily p roblem s and h a b itu a ln e s s s c a l e s . T ab le Ik shows th e s i x d i f f e r e n t t h e o r e t i c a l ty p e s t h a t w ere c o n s tr u c te d on th e b a s is o f th e s e m e a su re s. Type 1 conform s m ost c l o s e ly to th e ty p e o f d e lin q u e n t f o r whom th e e x p e rim e n ta l program was c r e a t e d . I n o p e r a tio n a l te rm s , t h i s ty p e was g iv e n th e lo w e s t p o s s ib le s c o re on TABLE Ilf DEFINITION OF THEORETICAL TYPES Type T h e o r e t i c a 1 C o n c e p t S o c ia l C la ss A chievem ent S t r a i n P e e r I d e n t i f i c a t i o n D elin q u en cy 1 (Low)* (Low) (H igh) (H igh) (H igh) 2 (Low) (Low) (H igh) (H igh) Low 3 (Low) (Low) (H igh) Low Low i+ (Low) (Low) Low Low Low 5 (Low) H igh Low Low Low 6 H igh H igh Low Low Low * I f v a r ia b le i s i n p a r e n th e s e s , i t s v a lu e i s th e o r iz e d a s le a d in g to d e lin q u e n c y . I n c o n s tr u c tin g th e s e ty p e s ,_ age was h e ld c o n s ta n t a t s ix t e e n y e a r s . S+lT 1^3 s o c ia l c l a s s , th e lo w e s t p o s s ib le s c o re s on th e m easu res o f a c h ie v e m e n t, th e h ig h e s t p o s s ib le s c o re s on th e m easu res o f s t r a i n , th e h ig h e s t p o s s ib le s c o re s on th e m easu res o f p e e r i d e n t i f i c a t i o n and th e h ig h e s t p o s s ib le s c o re s on th e m easu res o f d e lin q u e n c y . Type 2 was s im i l a r to -type 1 e x c e p t t h a t he was low on a l l m easu res o f d e lin q u e n c y . Type 3 was s im i l a r to ty p e 2 e x c e p t t h a t he was low on th e i m easu res o f p e e r i d e n t i f i c a t i o n . Type * f was s im i l a r to j ty p e 3 e x c e p t f o r b e in g low on th e m easu res o f s t r a i n . j Type 5 was s im i l a r to ty p e * * • e x c e p t f o r b e in g h ig h on th e r I m easu res o f a c h ie v e m e n t. Type 6 was c o n s tr u c te d to r e p r e s e n t th e o p p o s ite o f ty p e 1 . Type 6 i s in te n d e d to r e p r e s e n t th e w e ll- a d ju s te d "good boy" who i s h ig h on s o c ia l I c l a s s , who h a s th e h ig h e s t p o s s ib le s c o re s on a c h ie v e m e n t, | th e lo w e s t p o s s ib le s c o re s on s t r a i n , th e lo w e s t p o s s ib le s c o re s on d e lin q u e n t p e e r i d e n t i f i c a t i o n , and th e lo w e s t p o s s ib le s c o re s on a l l o f th e m easu res o f d e lin q u e n c y . I t w i l l be r e c a l l e d , a l l o f th e s e ty p e s a r e i d e a l ty p e s and a re n o t in te n d e d to r e p r e s e n t th e t r a i t s o f an a c tu a l in d iv id u a l o r group o f i n d i v i d u a l s . The h y p o th e tic a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f each o f th e t h e o r e t i c a l ty p e s w ere punched on d a ta c a rd s and e a c h ty p e was s im u la te d th ro u g h e i t h e r th e c o n tr o l o r th e ex p erim en t a l p ro g ram . The r e s u l t s o f t h i s a s p e c t o f th e s im u la tio n may be found i n T able 1 5 . SIMULATION Off T] S ociom etiic No. C r itic a l In cid en ts School Grades No. Runaways Terminatio; Type i i i H i H i rH •H r — I Ah O •H rH o •H H O k (0 h a s H M 0 4 h H (3 h Q )'-P < D + > © + » + > < B + » + > < D + * -p g«fl P tC l P i a C M rt a H < o O M < D o M 0 o w a w a o w a a ta a o 1 Beggar None F'a F'a 3 1 N O N 2 Loved One None F'a F'a l None No N 3 Beggar None P 's F'a None None No N b > Loved One 6 D's D'a None None No N 5 Beggar 6 D»s C'a None None No N 6 Loved One 6 D's D's None None No £ TABLE 15 SIMULATION Off THEORETICAL TYPES e s No. Runaways T e rm in a tio n I f G rad u ated L ength o f Time I f T e rm in a te d - Runaway L en g th o f Time I f G rad u ated No. R e c id iv ism I f 1 B No. 4 i H i rH i H i r4 i H i 3 P •H H O •H rl o •rl r4 p ■ H i — 1 O •rl r 4 M aS H P» aS S 4 h a$ 1 4 M C 6 u 1 4 c d u P i 3 a > + » -p a> + » -P o>+» •p 0 ) - p p a> -P p C D - 5 d f t d d f i« d d ft fl d f t d d ft 3 W C D o M ffl o H a) o H C D 3 o H 3 « a u w a o p q a o p q a o p q a o p q 's 3 1 N O No 6 mo. 16 mo. b mo. 0 mo. None 1 Nor •s 1 None No No 6 mo. 16 mo. 6 mo. 0 mo. None 1 Nor *s None None No No 6 mo. 12 mo. 6 mo. 0 mo. None None Nor •s None None No No 12 mo. 12 mo. 1 mo. 17 mo. 2 None •s None None No No 12 mo. 12 mo. 0 mo. 17 mo. 2 None 's None None No No 12 mo. 12 mo. 1 mo. 17 mo. 2 None - iTICAL TYPES Ef G rad u ated sng t h o f Time I f T erm in ated - Runaway L ength o f Time I f G rad u ated No. R ec id iv ism I f T erm inatedr Runaway No. R ecidivism I f R e c id iv ism L ength o f Time i iH i rH i rH i rH i rH •H rl o •rl H O •rl rH O •rl H O •rl rH O d aS d d aS d d O S d d aS d d C D d 0 ) P p 0 ) + > P 0 ) + » P d ) P p 0 ) P P g<d d frd a R * d d d d M a ? o M 0 } o X 0 > 5 o M a > o p q S o p q 0 o m a o P4 a o p q a o 6 mo. 16 mo. k mo* 0 mo. None 1 None b 10 mo. mo. 6 mo. 16 mo. 6 mo. 0 mo. None 1 None 3 10 mo. 2 mo. 6 mo. 12 mo. 6 mo. 0 mo. None None None 5 7 mo. mo. 12 mo. 12 mo. 1 mo. 17 mo. 2 None 3 None 3 mo. 10 mo. 12 mo. 12 mo. 0 mo. 17 mo. 2 None h None 0 mo. 8 mo. 12 mo. 12 mo. 1 mo. 17 mo. 2 None 3 None 2 mo. 10 mo. ±h$ The r e s u l t s f o r th e t h e o r e t i c a l ty p e s r e v e a l a v e ry i n t e r e s t i n g and c o n s i s t e n t t r e n d . T h is tr e n d i s c l e a r l y b ro u g h t o u t by an e x a m in a tio n o f Type 1 and Type 6 . Type 1 , w hich conform s m ost c l o s e ly to th e ty p e o f d e lin q u e n t sp e c i f i e d i n th e c a u s a tio n th e o r y , p erfo rm ed r e l a t i v e l y w e ll i n th e e x p e rim e n ta l p ro g ram , b u t d id v e ry p o o rly i n th e c o n tro l p ro g ram . Type 6 , th e one m ost u n lik e th e " id e a l 1ype" o f d e lin q u e n t d e riv e d from th e th e o r y , d id v e ry p o o rly i n th e e x p e rim e n ta l p ro g ram , b u t p erfo rm ed q u ite w e ll i n th e con t r o l p ro g ram . S in ce th e e x p e rim e n ta l program was s p e c i f i c a l l y d e s ig n e d to d e a l w ith th e p ro b lem s o f th e Type 1 i n d i v i d u a l , t h i s r e s u l t p ro v id e s s u p p o rt f o r th e t h e o r e t i c a l fram ew ork upon w hich th e ex p e rim e n t was b a se d and th e pro g ram m atic s t r u c t u r e t h a t was d e r iv e d from t h i s t h e o r e t i c a l fram ew ork. But b e f o re any f u r t h e r d is c u s s io n i s made o f t h i s f i n d i n g , a more d e t a i l e d e x a m in a tio n o f th e program o u tp u ts f o r th e t h e o r e t i c a l ty p e s i s n e e d e d . Type 1 The e s tim a te d s o c io m e tric s ta n d in g o f t h i s ty p e i n th e e x p e rim e n ta l program was a s a b e g g a r. T hat i s , h e would be u n lik e d by o t h e r s , b u t would te n d to l i k e o t h e r s . He w ould n o t be in v o lv e d i n any c r i t i c a l in c id e n ts a t th e e x p e rim e n ta l p ro g ram . A t b o th th e e x p e rim e n ta l and c o n tr o l p ro g ra m s, he w ould r e c e iv e f a i l i n g g ra d e s i n s c h o o l. At th e e x p e rim e n ta l p ro g ra m , he would h av e th r e e runaw ays and 1^-6 a t th e c o n tr o l program he would ru n away o n ly o n c e . At n e i t h e r program would he be te r m in a te d . I f he w ere to be g ra d u a te d from e i t h e r p ro g ram , h i s t o t a l le n g th o f s ta y a t th e e x p e rim e n ta l w ould be s i x m o n th s, w h ile a t th e c o n tr o l program i t w ould be s ix t e e n m o n th s. I f he w ere to be t e r m in a te d from e i t h e r program b ecau se o f h i s ru naw ays, h i s le n g th o f s ta y a t th e e x p e rim e n ta l program would be f o u r m o n th s, w h ile h i s te r m in a tio n from th e c o n tr o l program w ould be im m ed ia te. At th e e x p e rim e n ta l p ro g ram , r e g a rd l e s s o f th e ty p e o f program r e l e a s e , he w ould n o t r e c i d i v a t e . I f by some chance he d id r e c i d i v a t e , i t w ould happen te n m onths a f t e r h i s r e l e a s e . At th e c o n tr o l p ro g ram , a d i f f e r e n t s i t u a t i o n w ith r e g a rd to r e c id iv is m w ould o c c u r . I f Type 1 w ere s u c c e s s f u lly g ra d u a te d from th e c o n tr o l p ro gram , he would r e c i d i v a t e o n c e , and i f he w ere te rm in a te d o r r a n aw ay, he w ould r e c i d i v a t e f o u r tim e s . R e c id iv ism a f t e r r e l e a s e from th e c o n tr o l program w ould o cc u r i n a b o u t f o u r m o n th s. Type 2 T h is ty p e i s th e same a s Type 1 e x c e p t t h a t h i s s c o re s on a l l o f th e d e lin q u e n c y m easu res w ere lo w . The s im u la te d outcom es f o r t h i s ty p e e re th e same a s th o s e f o r Type 1 , w ith a few d i f f e r e n c e s . I n s te a d o f b e in g a b e g g a r, Type 2 w ould m ost l i k e l y be a lo v e d one a t th e e x p e rim e n t. He w ould b o th l i k e and b e lik e d by o t h e r s . I n s te a d o f 1^7 h a v in g th r e e runaw ays a t th e e x p e rim e n ta l p ro g ram , he w ould have o n ly o n e . At th e c o n tr o l program he w ould have no ru n aw ay s. I f he w ere to ru n away o r he te rm in a te d from th e e x p e rim e n t, i t would o c c u r a f t e r s ix m onths in s te a d o f f o u r m o n th s, a s was th e c a s e f o r Type 1 . I f he w ere te rm in a te d from th e c o n tr o l p ro g ram , he w ould r e c i d i v a t e th r e e i n s t e a d o f f o u r tim e s and h i s r e c id iv is m w ould o c c u r w ith in a h o u t two m onths a f t e r h i s r e l e a s e in s te a d o f f o u r m o n th s. In sum, by m aking Type 2 low on a l l o f th e d e lin q u e n c y mea s u r e s , h i s s o c io m e tric s ta n d in g a t th e e x p e rim e n t was im p ro v ed , h i s ten d en cy to ru n away from e i t h e r program was re d u c e d , and h i s fre q u e n c y o f r e c id iv is m a f t e r ex p o su re to th e c o n t r o l program was s l i g h t l y d e c re a s e d . j Tyne 3 T h is ty p e i s low on th e m easu res o f d e lin q u e n c y and p e e r i d e n t i f i c a t i o n , b u t h a s pro b lem s on a l l o f th e rem ain in g m e a s u re s . Making t h i s ty p e low on p e e r i d e n t i f i c a t i o n changed h i s p erfo rm an ce from t h a t o f Type 2 i n th e fo llo w in g w ays: h i s s o c io m e tric s ta n d in g a t th e e x p e rim e n t was t h a t o f a b e g g a r; he d id n o t ru n away from e i t h e r program ; h i s le n g th o f tim e i n tre a tm e n t a t th e c o n tr o l program was d e c re a se d to tw elv e m onths f o r a s u c c e s s f u l g ra d u a tio n ; i f he s u c c e s s f u lly g ra d u a te d from e i t h e r p ro g ram , he w ould n o t r e c i d i v a t e ; i f , by c h a n c e , he were n o t to co m p lete th e co n t r o l program s u c c e s s f u l l y , th e n h i s fre q u e n c y o f r e c id iv is m IkQ w ould jump to f i v e o f f e n s e s ; and i f he were to r e c i d i v a t e a f t e r h i s r e le a s e from e i t h e r p ro g ram , th e n he w ould do so w ith in se v e n m onths a f t e r th e e x p e rim e n ta l program and w ith in f o u r m onths a f t e r th e c o n tr o l p ro g ram . Type b W ith Type b , some d r a s t i c ch an g es i n s im u la te d o u t comes o c c u r . T h is ty p e , i t w i l l he r e c a l l e d , i s l i k e | Type 3 e x c e p t t h a t i t was made low on th e m easu res o f ! s t r a i n . The s o c io m e tric s ta n d in g o f Type 4 - was t h a t o f a j lo v e d o n e . H is in v o lv e m e n t i n c r i t i c a l i n c id e n ts a t th e ! ! e x p e rim e n t in c r e a s e d d r a s t i c a l l y o v e r e a r l i e r ty p e s from j none to s i x . H is sc h o o l perfo rm an ce a t b o th program s in c r e a s e d s l i g h t l y from M T', s" to l,H 's ." At n e i t h e r program w ould h e ru n away o r he te r m in a te d . H is le n g th o f s ta y a t b o th program s w ould he tw elv e m onths i f he w ere to com plete t r e a tm e n t. I f he w ere to he te rm in a te d o r ru n away from th e e x p e rim e n ta l p ro g ram , he w ould do so w ith in a m onth. A t th e c o n tr o l p ro g ram , th e f ig u r e w ould be s e v e n te e n ; ! I m o n th s. He w ould n o t he l i k e l y to r e c i d i v a t e a f t e r th e c o n tr o l p ro g ram , r e g a r d l e s s o f th e ty p e o f r e l e a s e . A t th e e x p e rim e n ta l p ro g ram , h o w ev er, he w ould have two r e c i d i v i s t o f f e n s e s i f he s u c c e s s f u lly g ra d u a te d from th e p ro g ram , and th r e e i f he d id n o t . He w ould l i k e l y r e c i d i v a t e w ith in th r e e m onths a f t e r r e l e a s e from th e e x p e rim e n ta l program and i f he w ere to r e c i d i v a t e a f t e r th e c o n tr o l p ro g ram , th e 1^9 f ig u r e w ould be te n m o n th s. T hus, Type k m arks th e em er gence o f a d i s t i n c t t r e n d . As th e p e rs o n a l problem s con tained i n th e t h e o r e t i c a l ty p e s a re re d u c e d , t h e i r p e r f o r m ances in the c o n tr o l program te n d to im p ro v e. At th e same time. h o w ev er, t h e i r p e rfo rm a n ce s w ith in th e e x p e rim e n ta l program w o rsen . Type 5 | T h is ty p e i s l i k e !fype 4 e x c e p t t h a t h i s s c o re s on | th e ach iev em en t m easu res a re h ig h . H is p erfo rm an ce d i f f e r s from (Hype * * i n th e fo llo w in g r e s p e c ts : h i s s o c io m e tric i s t a t u s i s t h a t o f a b e g g a r; h i s sc h o o l g ra d e s a t th e c o n - | t r o l program im prove from "D 's" to " C 's " ; i f he w ere to be te rm in a te d o r to ru n away from th e e x p e rim e n ta l p ro g ram , i t ! w ould o c c u r im m ed iately a f t e r h i s e n tr a n c e to th e program ; j and he w ould a ls o r e c i d i v a t e im m ed iately a f t e r te r m in a tio n w ith a t o t a l o f f o u r o f f e n s e s . I f , by c h a n c e , he w ere to r e c i d i v a t e from th e c o n tr o l p ro g ram , he would do so w ith in ! e i g h t m onths a f t e r r e l e a s e . Type 6 T h is ty p e r e p r e s e n ts th e a n t i t h e s i s o f Type 1 . W hile Type 1 was c r e a te d to r e p r e s e n t a problem d e lin q u e n t, Type 6 was c r e a te d to r e p r e s e n t th e p ro b le m -fre e "good boy." Type 6 w ould have th e s t a t u s o f a lo v e d one a t th e e x p e r i m e n ta l p ro g ram , y e t w ould be in v o lv e d i n s ix c r i t i c a l 150 i n c i d e n t s . He w ould make " S 's " i n sc h o o l a t b o th p ro g ra m s, b u t w ould n o t ru n away o r be te r m in a te d . The le n g th o f tim e f o r a s u c c e s s f u l g r a d u a tio n from e i t h e r program w ould be tw e lv e m o nths. I f h e d id n o t co m p lete th e e x p e rim e n ta l p ro g ram , h i s te r m in a tio n w ould o c c u r w ith in one m o n th . At th e c o n t r o l p ro g ram , th e f ig u r e w ould be s e v e n te e n m o n th s. He w ould n o t r e c i d i v a t e a f t e r th e c o n tr o l p ro g ram , r e g a r d - j l e s s o f th e ty p e o f r e l e a s e . I f he g ra d u a te d s u c c e s s f u lly | from th e e x p e rim e n ta l p ro g ram , he w ould have two r e c i d i v i s t ! o f f e n s e s , and i f n o t , he w ould have t h r e e . I f he r e c i d i v a te d a f t e r r e l e a s e from th e e x p e rim e n ta l program he w ould do so w ith in two m o n th s. F o r th e c o n tr o l p ro g ram , th e f ig u r e w ould be te n m o n th s. j i I n sum, e a c h t h e o r e t i c a l ty p e d i f f e r e d i n te rm s o f i t s s im u la te d program p e rfo rm a n c e , b u t a v e ry d i s t i n c t tr e n d was m a n if e s t. Those ty p e s who p o s s e s s e d th e g r e a t e s t num ber o f pro b lem s w hich w ere p o s tu la te d a s le a d in g to d e lin q u e n c y ten d e d to do w e ll i n th e e x p e rim e n ta l p ro g ram , y e t p o o rly i n th e c o n t r o l p ro g ram . As th e num ber o f p ro b - lem s among th e t h e o r e t i c a l ty p e s w ere d im in is h e d , a r e v e rs e d s i t u a t i o n o c c u rre d ; th e "good b o y s ," th o s e w ith o u t th e pro b lem s o f Types 1 th ro u g h 3 , te n d e d to do w e ll i n th e c o n t r o l p ro g ram , b u t w ere u n s u c c e s s fu l i n th e e x p e r i m e n ta l p ro g ram . T h is t r e n d , i f i t l e g i t i m a t e l y r e f l e c t s th e 151 r e l a t i v e im p act o f ,th e two p ro g ram s, seem s to c o n ta in th r e e m a jo r i m p lic a tio n s . F i r s t , i t s u g g e s ts t h a t t r a d i t i o n a l c o r r e c t i o n a l a l t e r n a t i v e s , a s r e p r e s e n te d by th e " t o t a l " i n s t i t u t i o n a l atm o sp h ere o f th e c o n tr o l p ro g ram , may have v e ry l i t t l e in flu e n c e o v e r th e p ro b lem s o f th e ty p e o f j d e lin q u e n t s p e c if ie d by th e c a u s a tio n th e o r y , o r , in d e e d , ! o v e r any ty p e o f i n d i v i d u a l . The t h e o r e t i c a l ty p e s w hich j i p o s s e s s e d th e m ost s e v e re pro b lem s w ere l i k e l y to c o n tin u e j t h e i r m a la d ju stm e n t a f t e r r e le a s e from th e c o n tr o l p ro g ra m .i The ty p e s w ith a minimum o f p roblem s b e fo re e n te r in g th e c o n tr o l program w ere l i k e l y to c o n tin u e to be w e ll a d ju s te d a f t e r t h e i r r e l e a s e . I n b r i e f , th e c o n tr o l program seems to have l i t t l e i n th e way o f a s i g n i f i c a n t im p act on any o f th e t h e o r e t i c a l ty p e s t h a t were c o n s tr u c te d . I t s f u n c tio n j i i n s o c ie ty w ould seem to be more a s a p la c e to "do tim e " o r co m p lete a c o u r t s e n te n c e th a n a s a p la c e to und erg o any m ajo r ch an g es i n b e h a v io r. S econd, th e s im u la tio n o f t h e o r e t i c a l ty p e s seem s j to docum ent th e a b i l i t y o f th e e x p e rim e n ta l program to d e a l w ith th e p e r s i s t e n t ju v e n ile o f fe n d e r who p o s s e s s e s s e r io u s pro b lem s o f a d ju s tm e n t. T h is i s e s p e c i a l l y tr u e f o r Types 1 th ro u g h 3 j none o f w hich w ere e s tim a te d to r e c i d i v a t e a f t e r t h e i r r e l e a s e . These ty p e s , e s p e c i a l l y Type 1 , r e p r e s e n t th e ty p e s o f boys f o r whom th e e x p e rim e n ta l program was s p e c i f i c a l l y d e s ig n e d . G reat c a re was e x e r c is e d i n d e riv in g 152 th e tr e a tm e n t s tr a t e g y and s tr u c t u r e o f th e e x p e rim e n ta l program from th e th e o ry o f d e lin q u e n c y c a u s a tio n . I f th e s im u la tio n o f th e s e t h e o r e t i c a l ty p e s c a n be c o n s tru e d a s one m eans o f a s s e s s in g th e adequacy o f t h i s s t r u c t u r e , th e n th e p rogram m atic d e s ig n o f th e e x p e rim e n t a lo n g w ith i t s u n d e r ly in g r a t i o n a l e may be s a id to p o s s e s s a h ig h d e g re e o f v a l i d i t y . The t h i r d im p lic a tio n o f th e s im u la tio n o f th e o r e t i c a l ty p e s c o n ta in s somewhat o f a p a ra d o x ic a l q u a l i t y . Types 3 th ro u g h 6 , th e ones who w ere r e l a t i v e l y w e ll- a d ju s te d and w ith o u t s e r io u s p ro b le m s, w ere a d v e rs e ly a f f e c t e d by t h e i r s im u la te d ex p o su re to th e e x p e rim e n t. They h ad a g r e a t e r num ber o f c r i t i c a l i n c id e n ts th a n th e o th e r ty p e s , had lo n g e r s ta y s i n tre a tm e n t b e fo re s u c c e s s f u l g r a d u a tio n , and w ere much more l i k e l y to r e c i d i v a t e . T h u s, w h ile i t i s th e c a s e t h a t a s e r io u s and m a la d ju s te d d e lin q u e n t b e n e f i t s from th e e x p e rim e n t, a k in d o f "boome r a n g ” e f f e c t o c c u rs w ith th e w e ll- a d ju s te d ”good b o y ." E xposure to th e e x p e rim e n t, i n h i s c a s e , w ould seem to do a g r e a t amount o f harm . One c an o n ly s p e c u la te a s t o why t h i s w ould be th e c a s e . A f te r a l l , t h i s a s p e c t o f th e s im u la tio n d e a ls o n ly w ith h y p o t h e t i c a l , t h e o r e t i c a l ty p e s . B ut i f t h i s f in d in g p o s s e s s e s any d eg ree o f v a l i d i t y , i t w ould su g g e st t h a t th e e x p e rim e n ta l program i s i n d a n g er o f in a d v e r te n tly __ I 5 3 ~ s o c i a l i z i n g n o n d e lin q u e n ts in t o d e lin q u e n t p a t t e r n s o f b e h a v io r . The t r u t h o f t h i s p o s s i b i l i t y and th e d is c o v e ry o f th e m echanism s by w hich t h i s m ig h t o c c u r , a re beyond th e scope o f t h i s d i s s e r t a t i o n and w ould r e q u ir e a d d itio n a l r e s e a r c h . The o v e r a l l f i n d i n g , h o w ev er, seems to s u g g e s t i t h a t th e s e r io u s d e lin q u e n t w ould b e n e f i t m ost from e x p o - j s u re to th e e x p e rim e n ta l p ro g ram , w h ile th e l e s s s e r io u s ] d e lin q u e n t w ould e i t h e r b e n e f i t from no tre a tm e n t a t a l l , i I o r e l s e a b r i e f s ta y i n th e c o n tr o l program w here th e l i k e l i h o o d o f a d v e rse s o c i a l i z a t i o n w ould n o t be a s g r e a t a s i t w ould be a t th e e x p e rim e n ta l p ro g ram . Summary \ i The b a s ic f in d in g s o f t h i s c h a p te r a re t h r e e f o l d . | | F i r s t , th e s im u la tio n was found to h av e a h ig h d e g re e o f r e l i a b i l i t y , b u t o n ly a m o d erate d e g re e o f v a l i d i t y . S econd, to th e e x te n t t h a t th e s im u la tio n was v a l i d , i t was fo u n d t h a t i t m ig h t be u s e d e f f e c t i v e l y to o p tim iz e program o u tp u ts . By a s s ig n in g boys to e i t h e r program on th e b a s is o f w here th e y w ould p erfo rm th e b e s t , th e r a t e o f s u c c e s s f u l program g r a d u a tio n m ig h t be g r e a t l y in c r e a s e d and th e r a t e o f r e c id iv is m a f t e r r e l e a s e g r e a t l y re d u c e d . T h ir d , a s im u la tio n o f t h e o r e t i c a l ty p e s p ro v id e d a l i m ite d d e g re e o f s u p p o rt f o r th e t h e o r e t i c a l v a l i d i t y o f th e e x p e rim e n ta l program and su g g e ste d w hich ty p e s o f b o y s , i n an i d e a l , t h e o r e t i c a l s e n s e , w ould p e rfo rm b e s t a t e i t h e r th e c o n tr o l o r e x p e rim e n ta l p ro g ram s. CHAPTER VI SU M M A RY AND IMPLICATIONS The g o a l o f t h i s d i s s e r t a t i o n was to c r e a te a com ** p u te r s im u la tio n o f two tre a tm e n t program s f o r ju v e n ile * d e lin q u e n ts : Boy^ R e p u b lic and th e S ilv e r la k e E x p e rim e n t.1 The o r g a n iz a tio n a l s t r u c t u r e s and t h e o r e t i c a l r a t i o n a l e s o f th e s e two program s w ere w id e ly d i f f e r e n t . Boys R e p u b lic was r e p r e s e n t a t i v e o f th e l a r g e , t r a d i t i o n a l , " t o t a l - i n s t i t u t i o n a l " a p p ro a ch to d e a lin g w ith th e problem s o f d e lin q u e n ts . I t was p h y s ic a lly i s o l a t e d from th e com m unity, was r e l a t i v e l y s e l f - s u s t a i n i n g and h ad an a u t h o r i t a r i a n , j c a s t e - l i k e s t r u c t u r e w ith in w hich d e lin q u e n ts w ere d e a l t j w ith on a h ig h ly in d iv id u a liz e d b a s i s . S il v e r l a k e , on th e o th e r h a n d , r e p r e s e n te d an a tte m p t a t c o r r e c t i o n a l in n o v a t i o n . I t was a s m a ll, r e s i d e n t i a l l y lo c a te d f a c i l i t y t h a t em ph asized c o l la b o r a tiv e and c a n d id g ro u p i n t e r a c t i o n among b o y s and s t a f f m em bers. R a th e r th a n s t r e s s i n g s e l f - s u f f i c i e n c e and i s o l a t i o n from th e com m unity) i t r e q u ir e d ^ R esearch was c a r r i e d o u t i n c o n ju n c tio n w ith a l a r g e r , more co m p reh en siv e stu d y e n t i t l e d The S ilv e r la k e E x p erim en t ( c f . Empey, Lubeck and N ew land, 1 9 6 9 ). 151 * 1 5 5 d e lin q u e n ts to p a r t i c i p a t e i n le g i t i m a t e community a c t i v i t i e s i n o r d e r to h e lp them w ith t h e i r p ro b lem s o f a d j u s t m ent and to a s s i s t them i n m a in ta in in g re w a rd in g , non d e lin q u e n t p a t t e r n s o f b e h a v io r. The o r g a n iz a tio n a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s and p r a c t i c e s o f S ilv e r la k e w ere b a s e d on an e l a b o r a t e , t h e o r e t i c a l r a t i o n a l e w hich c o n s is te d o f a s e r i e s o f t h e o r e t i c a l p o s tu l a t e s and th eo rem s a b o u t d e l i n - i j quency c a u s a tio n and a s e r i e s o f i n t e r v e n ti o n g u id e lin e s c o n c e rn in g how d e lin q u e n ts sh o u ld be c h an g ed . The r e s e a r c h d e s ig n f o r ex am in in g th e e f f e c t i v e n e s s o f th e two program s c o n s is te d o f two m a jo r com ponents. The f i r s t com ponent was an e x p e rim e n ta l m odel i n w hich a popu l a t i o n o f 237 p e r s i s t e n t o ffe n d e rs from Los A ngeles C ounty j was random ly a s s ig n e d t o e i t h e r th e Boys' He p u b lic program o r to th e S ilv e r la k e E x p e rim e n t. The second com ponent was I a m easurem ent d e s ig n i n w hich d a ta w ere c o l l e c t e d i n th e s e q u e n tia l a r e a s o f i n p u t , p ro c e s s and outcom e. In p u t d a ta r e f e r r e d to m easu res t h a t w ere c o l l e c t e d a s boys e n te r e d e i t h e r o f th e two program s and in c lu d e d in fo rm a tio n on s o c ia l c l a s s , a g e , f a m ily h i s t o r y , w ork h i s t o r y , sc h o o l p e rfo rm a n c e , s e lf - c o n c e p t , p e e r i d e n t i f i c a t i o n , o f f i c i a l o ffe n s e h i s t o r y and p e r s o n a l i t y . P ro c e s s d a ta w ere c o l l e c t e d to m easure th e p erfo rm an ces o f boys w h ile i n th e program s and in c lu d e d in fo r m a tio n on s o c io m e tric s ta n d in g , c r i t i c a l i n c id e n ts and sc h o o l p e rfo rm a n c e . Outcome inform ation included measures o f 1ype o f program r e le a s e , (in c lu d in g runaways, program term ination and su c c e ssfu l program g ra d u a tio n ), measures o f len g th o f time in tr e a t m ent, r ec id iv ism and len g th o f time b efore r ec id iv ism . Because inp ut d a ta , process data and outcome data were measured s e q u e n tia lly , i t was p o s sib le to co n stru ct m u ltip le r eg r essio n m odels th at would enable a p r e d ic tio n | I o f the p rocess measures from the inp ut measures and a pre- j d ic tio n o f the outcome measures from the process and input m easures. Using step w ise reg r essio n procedures, a s e r ie s o f complex models were developed to do t h i s . These models were then used to co n stru ct a computer sim u lation . Three major fin d in g s emerged as a r e s u lt o f the i sim u la tio n , f i r s t , the sim u lation was found to p o sse ss a ! i h igh degree o f r e l i a b i l i t y , but only a moderate degree o f v a l id i t y . That i s , i t tended to y ie ld c o n siste n t r e s u lt s , but was in accu rate in some in s ta n c e s . The most n o ta b le in a c c u r a c ie s occurred w ith e stim a tes o f runaways and pro- i gram term in ation . Second, to the e x te n t th a t the sim ula tio n was v a lid , i t was found th a t the sim u lation m ight be used e f f e c t iv e ly in optim izing program ou tp u ts. By a ssig n in g boys to e ith e r the S ilv er la k e or Boys' Bepublic program on the b a sis o f where th ey would perform the b e s t , th e ra te o f su c c e s sfu l program graduation fo r the population under study m ight be g r e a tly in creased and the o v e r a ll r a te o f 157 rec id iv ism g r e a tly reduced. Third, a sim u lation o f theo r e t ic a l typ es provided a lim ite d degree o f support fo r the th e o r e tic a l v a lid ity o f the experim ental program and sug g e sted which types o f b oys, in an id e a l, th e o r e tic a l se n se, would perform b e st a t e ith e r the c o n tro l or experim ental program. The sim ulation developed in t h is chapter i s q u ite ; crude in many r e sp e c ts and i s fa r from p e r fe c t. Y et, j d e sp ite i t s many problem s, i t rep resen ts an e f f o r t to pro- ! vide research on c o r r e c tio n a l a lte r n a tiv e s in a new way. Further work in t h is area could provide an in valu ab le con tr ib u tio n to c o r r e c tio n a l p ra ctice and th e o iy . I P r a c titio n e r s could b e n e fit from t h is type o f sim u lation in a v a r ie ty o f ways. F ir s t , i f v a lid sim ula tio n s o f d iffe r e n t c o r r e c tio n a l a lte r n a tiv e s were developed,^ a more e f f i c i e n t u se o f a v a ila b le programs could be the r e s u lt . Matching types o f offen d ers to types o f a lter n a t iv e s could help p r a c titio n e r s is o la t e those youths who would seem to b e n e fit from a minimum o f treatm ent or no treatm ent a t a l l . I t could h elp them is o la t e those offen d ers who would seem to do b e st only in a p a r tic u la r treatm ent program, and i t could h elp them to is o la t e offen d ers who would n ot do w e ll in any a v a ila b le treatm ent program. In the case o f the la t t e r group, i f i t s unique c h a r a c te r is tic s could be is o la t e d , new co rr ec tio n a l 158 s t r a te g ie s could tie b u ilt to cope more e f f e c t iv e ly w ith i t s problem s. Such o p tim ization procedures, i f app lied to a given p op u lation o f o ffe n d e r s, could r e s u lt in a much more e f f i c ie n t u se o f c o r r e c tio n a l a lte r n a tiv e s than i s p r e sen tly the c a s e . I t could reduce the c o s ts o f ju v e n ile d e lin quency to the community both in terms o f the resou rces required to process and tr e a t d elin q u en ts and in terms o f reducing the actu al amount o f law v io la t io n s . A n ote o f c a u tio n , however, i s needed. The sim u lation o f t h is study con ta in s error and th erefo re should n o t be used a lo n e , but only in conjunction w ith sound c l i n i c a l and ju d ic ia l d ecision -m aking. Of co u r se, as the amount o f error in sim u lation s o f t h is nature i s reduced, then an in creased j amount o f confidence could subsequently be placed in th e ir ! r e s u lt s . Sim ulations o f t h is nature can a lso con trib u te to the improvement o f c o r r e c tio n a l th eo ry . The type o f simu la tio n done in t h is study fo r c e s an exam ination o f the th e o r e tic a l assum ptions which u n d erlie a given program. T h is, in tu rn , fo r c e s an assessm ent o f the lo g ic a l adequacy o f a g iv en body o f ca u sa tio n and treatm ent assum ptions as w e ll as i t s a p p lic a b ility to given typ es o f o ffen d e rs. The sim u lation o f h y p o th e tic a l, th e o r e tic a l types enables a more s p e c if ic assessm ent o f the adequacy o f programmatic 159 assum ptions and a lso makes i t p o ssib le to examine the e ff e c t iv e n e s s o f d iffe r e n t c o r r e c tio n a l a lte r n a tiv e s fo r d ealin g w ith th e o r e tic a lly d is tin c t typ es o f d elin q u en ts. I f sim u lation s o f a wide range o f c o r r e c tio n a l a lte r n a tiv e s could be developed in a v a r ie ty o f d iffe r e n t c u ltu r a l s e t t in g s , research could focu s oh the u n iv e r s a lity o f I d iffe r e n t types o f adjustm ent problems fo r d elin q u en ts and j i the v alu e o f u sin g sim ila r c o rr ec tio n a l techniques fo r | i d ea lin g w ith them. T his could r e s u lt in the development o f gen eral c o r r e c tio n a l th eo ry . Perhaps the most important contribution a Simula- i tio n o f t h is nature has to make i s th a t i t attem pts to in te r r e la te th eo ry , research and p r a c tic e . I t i s im portant in any sc ien ce th a t th ese three areas develop to g e th e r . j C orrectional theory i s w orth less u n le s s i t can somehow be ! corroborated by fa c t and a lso tr a n sla te d in to sound prac t i c e . S im ila r ly , the r e s u lts o f c o r r e c tio n a l research are rendered m eaningless o u tsid e the con text o f a th e o r e tic a l and p r a c tic a l framework. C orrectional p r a c tic e , i f i t i s ever to be e f f e c t i v e , must su b ject i t s assumptions to rigorou s lo g ic a l and em p irical sc r u tin y . I t i s hoped th a t the p resen t stu d y, and futu re stu d ie s o f t h is n a tu re, w ill h elp to advance the sim ultaneous development o f th ese three a r e a s. A P P E N D I X E S 160 A P P E N D I X A SCALING 161 D evelopm ent o f O ffen se S c a le s I n o r d e r to d e v e lo p th e o ffe n s e s c a l e s , d a ta w ere I c o l l e c t e d on a t o t a l o f t h i r t y - s i x d i f f e r e n t o f f e n s e s , A l i s t o f th e s e o f f e n s e s , a lo n g w ith th e num ber o f boys c o m m ittin g e a c h o ffe n s e one o r more tim e s , can be fo u n d i n T a b le 16 o f t h i s A ppendix, An e x a m in a tio n o f T able 16 r e v e a ls t h a t c e r t a i n ty p e s o f o f fe n s e s have been com m itted f r e q u e n tly , w h ile o th e r s hav e o c c u rre d o n ly r a r e l y . W ith th e developm ent o f ty p o lo g ie s a s a g o a l, t h i s s i t u a t i o n p o sed a p ro b lem , b ec a u se a c e r t a i n am ount o f v a r i a t i o n m ust o c c u r w ith in an o f fe n s e c a te g o ry b e fo re i t can be m e a n in g fu lly a n a ly z e d in co m p ariso n w ith o th e r c a t e g o r i e s . To r e c t i f y t h i s weakness^ c e r t a i n o ffe n s e c a te g o r ie s w ere com bined to form new c a t e g o r i e s , In m aking th e s e c o m b in a tio n s, a l l o ffe n s e c a t e g o r ie s in v o lv in g l e s s th a n 10 p e r c e n t o f th e boys w ere to be com bined u n t i l th e r e s u l t in v o lv e d more th a n 10 p e r c e n t o f th e b o y s. C om binations o f th e c a te g o r ie s w ere made u s in g s u b je c tiv e ju d g m en ts o f th e a u th o rs re g a rd in g th e c o n te n t o f th e s e c a t e g o r i e s . The new c o m b in a tio n s and t h e i r f r e q u e n c ie s can be fo u n d i n T ab le 17• F o r th e m ost p a r t , th o s e c a te g o r ie s 162 163 TABLE 16 N UM BER OF BOYS WITH OFFENSE O N THEIR RECORD ONE. OR M O R E TIMES O ffen se F requency P e r C ent Robbery 6 if A g g rav ated a s s a u l t R ig h tin g , a s s a u l t and b a t t e r y , d i s 6 b tu r b in g th e p e a c e , e t c . 19 13 B rea k in g and e n te r i n g , b u rg la ry 36 Grand t h e f t (e x c lu d in g a u to ) k 3 A utom obile t h e f t , j o y - r i d i n g , e t c . bb 31 P e tty t h e f t 5b 38 F o rg e ry 2 1 H e te ro s e x u a l b e h a v io r (n o n f o r c ib le ) 3 2 Hom osexual b e h a v io r h 3 O th e r sex d e lin q u e n c ie s 3 2 F o r c ib le ra p e 3 2 C h ild m o le s tin g S e l l i n g , b u y in g , o r p o s s e s s in g 3 2 n a r c o t i c s 2 1 Use o f n a r c o t i c s (e x c lu d in g g lu e ) 1 1 Use o f g l u e , o th e r to x ic s n i f f i n g 9 6 Drunk d r iv in g 0 0 D riv in g w ith o u t a l i c e n s e 2 1 O th e r t r a f f i c v i o l a t i o n s 15 10 P ro b a tio n v i o l a t i o n 23 16 P o s s e s s io n o f d an g ero u s w eapons 5 3 S e ttin g f i r e s , a r s o n , e t c . 6 b Im p ro p er com panions, l o i t e r i n g 6 I n c o r r i g i b l e 60 *f2 Runaway from home Runaway from i n s t i t u t i o n o r co u n ty *f8 33 f a c i l i t y 12 9 T ruancy from sc h o o l M a lic io u s m is c h ie f , dam aging 19 13 p r o p e r ty B u y in g , s e l l i n g , o r p o s s e s s in g 21 15 l i q u o r 3 2 D rin k in g l i q u o r , d ru n k en n ess 15 10 Curfew v i o l a t i o n s 19 13 D e s t it u t i o n 11 8 164 TABLE 16— C o n tin u ed O ffen se F requency P e r Cent D e fian ce o f a u t h o r i t i e s ) o th e r th a n p a r e n ts 1 1 Smoking 1 1 601) 2 ) W .I.C . (o ffe n s e n o t s p e c i f i e d ) 11 8 3 ) 165 TABLE 17 NUM EEB OP BOYS WITH OPPENSE O N THE IE BECORD O N E OE M O EE TIMES Combined. O ffense C ategory P requency P e r C ent A g g rav ated a s s a u l t ; f i g h t i n g ; a s s a u l t 1 and b a t t e r y , e t c . 25 17 B reak in g and e n te r in g ; b u rg la ry 52 36 Auto t h e f t ; jo y - r id in g ; V C 10085 M + 31 P e tty t h e f t ; g ran d t h e f t 58 **0 A ll se x d e lin q u e n c ie s 16 11 A ll n a r c o t i c s o f fe n s e s in c lu d in g g lu e s n i f f i n g 12 8 A ll t r a f f i c o ffe n s e s 17 12 P ro b a tio n v i o l a t i o n ; i n e f f e c t i v e r e h a b i l i t a t i o n 23 16 Damaging p r o p e rty ; m a lic io u s m ischief^ a rs o n ; p o s s e s s io n o f dan g ero u s 32 22 weapon I n c o r r i g i b l e 60 k2 Runaway from home, m is s in g 33 Bunaway from i n s t i t u t i o n , co u n ty f a c i l i t y 12 8 Truancy from sc h o o l 19 13 Buying; s e l l i n g ; p o s s e s s in g ; d r in k in g l i q u o t 18 13 Curfew v i o l a t i o n s 19 13 B: 6 0 1 -2 -3 ; W IC o ffe n s e n o t s p e c i f i e d 11 8 R e s t i t u t i o n ; gam bling; im p ro p e r com p a n io n s; l o i t e r i n g ; tr e s p a s s in g 20 13 i n i t i a l l y in v o lv in g more th a n 10 p e r c e n t o f th e boys w ere l e f t un co m b in ed . Some o f th e new com bined c a te g o r ie s in v o lv e d a s l i t t l e a s 8 p e r c e n t o f th e t o t a l sam p le. In th e s e c a s e s , f u r t h e r com bining was d i f f i c u l t w ith o u t s a c r i f i c i n g th e m eaning o r c o n te n t o f th e c a te g o ry * C e r ta in o ffe n s e c a te g o r ie s (Sm oking, D efian ce o f A u th o r itie s o th e r than P a ren ts, Robbery) were abandoned because th e ir f r e - j I q u e n c ie s w ere sm all and no l o g i c a l c o m b in a tio n s c o u ld be j fo u n d . I The n e x t s te p i n th e c o n s tr u c tio n o f th e o f f e n d e r j ty p o lo g ie s was to i s o l a t e m ean in g fu l g ro u p s o f ite m s upon w hich to b a se s c a le c o n s tr u c t i o n . To g iv e p re lim in a ry d i r e c t i o n , a f a c t o r A n a ly s is was p erfo rm ed on th e s e v e n te e n i com bined c a t e g o r i e s . The f i n a l r o t a t e d f a c t o r m a trix may be found i n T ab le 18 o f th e A ppendix. T h is m a trix i n d i c a te s th e o c c u rre n c e o f in d e p e n d e n t f a c t o r s . The a n a ly s is u t i l i z e d a v arim ax s o lu t i o n w ith o rth o g o n a l r o t a t i o n from w hich e i g h t f a c t o r s w ere e x t r a c t e d . A c l e a r e r r e p r e s e n t a t i o n o f th e s e f a c t o r s may be se e n i n T ab le 1 9 . I n i n t e r p r e t i n g f a c t o r s , lo a d in g s g r e a t e r th a n .5 0 a re g e n e r a lly c o n s id e re d h ig h , lo a d in g s betw een .3 0 and .^9 a re c o n s id e re d m o d e ra te , and lo a d in g s l e s s th a n .30 a re c o n s id e re d low ( P r u c h te r , 1 9 5 ^ :1 5 1 ). The con ten t or meanings o f th ese fa c to r s w i l l n o t be d iscu ssed in t h is Appendix. Some o f the fa c to r s were TABLE 18 .ROTATED FACTOR MATRIX: OFFENSE M EASURES V a ria b le V a c t o r s 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 ; 8 F ig h tin g ; a s s a u l t .02 .01 o o . - .3 3 - .0 2 .10 .13 - .0 5 B u rg la ry ; b re a k in g and e n te r in g .70 1 . o H .03 .12 i r \ 0 . 1 - .0 4 - .0 6 - .0 8 Auto t h e f t .07 - .0 7 i . H O .06 - .if 5 - .0 2 .76 .01 P e tty t h e f t ; g ra n d t h e f t .69 i r \ 0 . 1 .0 7 - .0 2 - .0 3 C O o . i • o H .00 Sex d e lin q u e n c ie s .04 C M 0 . 1 .03 C M 0 • 1 •05 .06 - .4 1 •01 N a rc o tic s .17 .10 .1 2 - .1 6 .06 .20 .11 : .19 T r a f f ic - .0 5 .01 .16 - .1 1 - .3 4 .0 4 .03 .1 7 I n e f f e c t i v e r e h a b i l i t a t i o n .03 - . ( A - - .0 5 .0 2 .06 .03 H O • - .3 4 Damaging p r o p e rty .13 c^. 0 • 1 .48 C M O • .0 5 - .0 1 - .1 7 .03 I n c o r r i g i b l e - .2 8 - .0 1 - .1 2 .23 .31 .0 2 .18 .0 2 Runaway from home - .0 5 .0 2 .17 .08 .0 2 - .4 1 .09 .07 TABLE 18— Continued -V ariab le P a c t 0 r s 1 2 3 4 - 5 6 7 8 Bunaway from i n s t i t u t i o n - .0 1 .6 2 - .0 5 .09 .04- - .1 3 - .0 0 - .0 3 T ruancy - .0 6 -.04- - .0 5 .18 .02 .2 7 i • o H .24- A lco h o l - .0 1 - .04- .03 - .3 9 - .1 7 - .0 0 - .1 0 .0 5 Curfew - .16 - .0 5 -.14- - .3 5 .14- - .0 8 - .1 0 .08 6 0 1 -2 -3 WIC .01 i a .56 .01 - .0 7 - .2 0 .10 .08 D e s titu tio n - .0 3 .63 -.04- -.04- .03 .10 .05 . n 165 169 TABLE 19 FACTORS A N D THEIR LOADINGS: OFFENSE MEASURES FACTOR 1 1 . B re a k in g . and e n te r in g ; b u rg la ry 2 . P e tty t h e f t ; o th e r t h e f t .70 .6 9 FACTOR 2 1 . D e s titu tio n ; gam bling; bad com panions 2 . Runaway from i n s t i t u t i o n o r c o u n ty f a c i l i t y .63 .62 FACTOR 3 1 . B: 6 0 1 -2 -3 ; o ffe n s e n o t s p e c if ie d 2 . P o s s e s s io n o f weapon; m a lic io u s m is c h ie f ; dam aging p ro p e rty .56 .^8 FACTOR b 1 . A lco h o l o ffe n s e s 2 . Curfew v i o l a t i o n s 3 . A g g rav ated a s s a u l t ; f ig h t i n g ; a s s a u l t and b a t t e r y - .3 9 - .3 5 - .3 3 FACTOR 5-A 1 . I n c o r r i g i b l e .31 FACTOR 5-B 1 , Auto t h e f t ; jo y - r id in g 2 . A ll t r a f f i c o ffe n s e s - A 5 -.34- FACTOR 6 1 . Runaway from home - A l FACTOR 7 1 . A ll se x o ffe n s e s - M FACTOR 8 1 . P ro b a tio n v i o l a t i o n , i n e f f e c t i v e r e h a b i l i t a t i o n ~ .3 b - • 170 c o n s id e re d m ea n in g fu l enough to a tte m p t to d ev elo p ty p o lo g ie s from them . A ll m e a n in g fu l f a c t o r c l u s t e r i n g s w ith two o r more ite m s w ere s u b je c te d to G uttm an-type s c a lin g te c h n iq u e s . P r i o r to s c a l in g , a l l o ffe n s e c a te g o r ie s w ere d ic h o to m ize d to a ”0 v s . 1 o r m ore" p a t t e r n . As can be seen i n T ab le 20, f o r th e m ost p a r t , th e C o e f f ic ie n ts o f R e p r o d u c ib ility a re q u ite h ig h . W hether o r n o t th e s e h ig h C o e f f ic ie n ts a r e a j f u n c tio n o f th e sm a ll num ber o f ite m s u s e d and th e d ic h o to - j i mous n a tu r e o f th e re s p o n s e s i s d i f f i c u l t to a s c e r t a i n . H ow ever, i n l i g h t o f th e f a c t o r c l u s t e r i n g s , i t i s n o t u n re a s o n a b le to a t t r i b u t e u n id im e n s io n a lity to th e s c a l e s . A l i s t o f th e f iv e s c a l e s , t h e i r ite m e r r o r s and t h e i r C o e f f ic ie n ts o f R e p r o d u c ib ility may be found i n | T ab le 2 0 . S c a le s w ere g iv e n a r b i t r a r y t i t l e s i n a c c o rd a n c e w ith th e d im en sio n s w hich th e y a re i n t e r p r e t e d to m e a su re . S e v e ra l q u e s tio n s a r i s e i n c o n n e c tio n w ith th e u s e o f any Guttm an s c a l e . The f i r s t h a s to do w ith th e a p r i o r i d e f i n i t i o n o f th e u n iv e r s e o f q u a l i t a t i v e d a ta — i n t h i s c a s e , in fo rm a tio n on d e lin q u e n c y — w hich a s c a le i s sup p o sed to r e p r e s e n t . Guttman (1 9 ^5 ) h a s s a id t h a t i n d e v e lo p in g ite m s f o r a s c a l e , . . . ite m s a re c o n s tr u c te d w hich c o n ta in th e c o n te n t im p lie d by th e name o f th e a r e a . W hether o r n o t a g iv e n ite m h a s th e p r o p e r c o n te n t d e f in in g th e a r e a re m a in s a m a tte r o f i n t u i t i v e ju d g m ent; p e rh a p s th e c o n sen su s o f s e v e r a l p eo p le v e r s e d i n th e a r e a c o u ld s e rv e a s a c r i t e r i o n . TABLE 20 GUTTMAN-TTEE SCALES BASED O N OFFENSE DATA S c a le Name Ite m Item E r r o r C o e f f ic ie n ts o f R e p r o d u c ib ility SCALE I T h e ft S c a le ( F a c to r 1 ) 1 . P e tty t h e f t , g ra n d t h e f t 2 . B reak in g and e n t e r i n g , b u rg la ry 0 23 .9 2 SCALE I I P e rs o n a l D is o rg a n iz a t i o n S c a le ( F a c to r 2) 1 . Runaway from i n s t i t u t i o n 2 . D e s t i t u t i o n , bad com panions, e t c . 0 .96 SCALE I I I S t r e e t C o m e r S c a le ( F a c to r U -) 1 . F ig h tin g ; a g g ra v a te d a s s a u l t 2 . Curfew 3 . A lco h o l 18 12 9 .9 i SCALE IV A utom obile S c a le ( F a c to r 5) 1 . Auto t h e f t ; j o y - r i d i n g 2 . T r a f f ic v i o l a t i o n s 9 0 .9 7 SCALE V F am ily Problem s S c a le (N ot b a se d on a f a c t o r c l u s t e r i n g ) 1 . I n c o r r i g i b i l i t y 2 . Runaway from home CTNO C M .89 172 I n t h i s c a se "c o n se n su s" r e g a rd in g d e lin q u e n c y i s r e p r e s e n te d by l e g a l s t a t u t e and o f f i c i a l p r a c t i c e . The m ajo r q u e s tio n , t h e r e f o r e , i s w h e th e r th e r e i s any common c h a r a c t e r i s t i c e i t h e r i n th e s i t u a t i o n s u rro u n d in g th e com m is s io n o f d e lin q u e n t a c t s o r i n o f fe n d e r s th e m se lv e s w hich w ould le a d to c l a s s i f i c a t o i y s c a le s w hich c o u ld d iv id e re s p o n d e n ts in to d i f f e r e n t s u b ty p e s . There i s no i n t e n t to s u g g e s t t h a t th e s e d e l i n quency s c a le s r e p r e s e n t th e w hole u n iv e r s e o f d e lin q u e n t b e h a v io r o r w h e th e r e a c h o f them a d e q u a te ly r e p r e s e n ts a s u b s c a le o f t h a t u n i v e r s e . The p r o o f o f th e pudding i s i n w h e th e r th e r e seem to be any m e a n in g fu l r e l a t i o n s h i p s betw een th e ty p o lo g ie s t h a t a re d e v elo p ed and o th e r i n d ic e s o f b e h a v io r . D evelopm ent o f P e e r I d e n t i f i c a t i o n S c a le s A s e r i e s o f s ix t e e n ite m s m e a su rin g com m itm ent to d e lin q u e n t p e e r s w ere f a c t o r a n a ly z e d i n o r d e r to d e v e lo p ! s c a le s i n t h i s a r e a . 1 T h is a g a in e n t a i l e d a v a rim a x s o lu t i o n w ith o rth o g o n a l r o t a t i o n from w hich f o u r f a c t o r s w ere e x t r a c t e d . These f a c t o r s a c c o u n t f o r 50 p e r c e n t o f th e t o t a l p o p u la tio n o f v a r ia n c e and may be seen i n T a b le 21 . . p The v a r ia n c e (h ) a c c o u n te d f o r i n th e in d iv id u a l ■ ^ A more e x te n s iv e d is c u s s io n o f th e developm ent o f th e s e s c a l e s and t h e i r im p lic a tio n s may be found i n Empey and Iubec.lc (1 9 6 8 ). TABLE 21 R O T A T ED FA C T O R M ATRIX: EEER.IDENTIFICATION M E A SU R E S V a r ia b le s F a c 1 ; o r s h 2 1 2 3 if 1. I f a f r i e n d was i n t r o u b l e , w ould you t e l l p o lic e i f th e y ask ed you? - .6 7 - .0 2 - .0 2 - .1 0 M 2 . I f a f r i e n d was i n t r o u b l e , w ould you t e l l p a r e n ts i f th e y ask ed you? - .6 8 Jr 0 . 1 - .0*f - .0 9 M 3 . I f a f r i e n d was i n t r o u b l e , w ould you t e l l te a c h e r s i f th e y a sk ed you? - .7 0 - .12 - .1 5 - .1 8 .56 I f a f r i e n d d id so m eth in g you knew was w ro n g , w ould you do i t w ith him ? .16 .19 .08 .68 .53 5 . I f y o u w ere p la n n in g to go to ch u ro h w ould you go w ith f r i e n d s in s te a d ? .Ch .21 .6 2 .17 MS 6 . Would you do so m eth in g w ith f r i e n d s i f p a r e n ts t o l d you n e v e r to do? .00 .2 5 .23 .60 7 . I f a f r i e n d was i n tr o u b le w ith law w ould you h id e him ? .06 .6 7 .20 .3if .61 8 . I f a f r i e n d had ru n away from home w ould you h id e him ? .03 .70 .16 .23 .5 7 TABLE 21— Continued V a ria b le a P a c t o r s h2 1 2 3 9 . I f y o u w ere w a tc h in g TV, w ould you go m ess aro u n d w ith f r ie n d s a t a h o w lin g a lle y ? .05 .21 .57 .18 .*t0 1 0 . I f y o u w ere d o in g homework, w ould you go w ith f r i e n d s in s te a d ? . l 1 * .01 .55 : .*f6 .53 1 1 . Would you l e t a f r i e n d copy a t s c h o o l? .16 .lM - .32 .50 M 1 2 . Would you s k ip sc h o o l w ith f r ie n d s ? .06 .23 .3 2 .65 .58 1 3 . Would you go d r in k b e e r w ith f r i e n d s ? .13 .18 .52 : .28 .*f0 I 1 *. Would you go s t e a l g a s w ith f r i e n d s ? ;06 .26 C \1 • .7 5 .71 1 5 . Would you go b re a k i n t o a p la c e and s t e a l some s t u f f w ith f r ie n d s ? .15 .29 .22 .67 .60 1 6 . Would you go f i g h t some guys w ith f r i e n d s ? .16 .2 5 .30 .38 .32 Eh2/N = 8 .0 7 A 6 = .5 0 Zh2 = 8 .0 7 H 175 c a te g o r ie s ra n g e d from 32 p e r c e n t f o r f ig h t i n g to 71 p e r c e n t f o r s t e a l i n g g a s . These f a c t o r c l u s t e r i n g s a re p r e s e n te d more c l e a r l y i n T ab le 2 2 . I n t h i s t a b l e , o n ly ite m s w ith lo a d in g s h ig h e r th a n .30 a re r e p o r te d . The ite m s i n e a c h o f th e c l u s t e r i n g s w ere s u b je c te d to G u ttm an -ty p e s c a lin g te c h n iq u e s . (A ll re sp o n se c a t e g o r ie s w ere d ic h o to m iz e d .) As can be se e n i n T able 2 3 , f o r ; th e m ost p a r t , th e C o e f f ic ie n ts o f R e p r o d u c ib ility w ere q u ite h ig h . As w ith th e o ffe n s e s c a l e s , th e h ig h C o e f f i c i e n t s may be a f u n c tio n o f th e sm a ll num ber o f ite m s u s e d i n each s c a l e . H ow ever, i n l i g h t o f th e f a c t o r c l u s t e r i n g s , i a s s e r t i o n s o f u n id im e n s io n a lity a r e s u p p o rte d . A l i s t o f I th e s c a l e s , t h e i r ite m e r r o r s , and t h e i r C o e f f ic ie n ts o f R e p r o d u c ib ility may be fo u n d i n T able 23 o f th e A p p en d ix , j R e s c a lin g I n S c a le I I I ( th e S o c i a b i l i t y S c a le ) " d rin k in g b e e r w ith f r i e n d s " had h ig h ite m e r r o r and a ls o had th e lo w e s t f a c t o r lo a d in g r e l a t i v e to th e o th e r ite m s in th e c l u s t e r . T h is , i n c o m b in a tio n w ith th e f a c t t h a t i t i s a ty p e o f b e h a v io r o f te n la b e le d a s d e lin q u e n t, r e s u l t e d i n i t s b e in g dro p p ed from th e n o n d e lin q u e n cy s c a l e . R e s c a lin g was a tte m p te d , u s in g th e th r e e re m a in in g ite m s . The r e s u l t i n g s c a le (S c a le V II) may be found i n T a b le 2 k , I t w i l l be n o te d t h a t a f t e r t h i s change was m ade, th e C o e f f ic ie n t o f R e p r o d u c ib ility jumped from .89 to .9 5 . TABLE 22 FACTORS AND THEIR LOADINGS: BEER. IDENTIFICATION MEASURES FACTOR 1 Would you " f in k " to te a c h e r s ? Would you " fin k " to p a r e n ts ? Would you " f in k " to p o lic e ? - .7 0 - .6 8 - .6 7 FACTOR 2 I f f r i e n d h ad ru n away from home w ould you h id e him ? I f f r ie n d was i n tr o u b le w ith th e law w ould you h id e him ? .70 .6 7 FACTOR 3 I f you w ere g o in g to c h u rc h and f r ie n d s c a l l e d u p , w ould y o u go do som ething w ith them? I f you w ere w a tc h in g TV and f r ie n d s c a l l e d u p , w ould you go m ess aro u n d w ith them ? I f you w ere d o in g homework and f r ie n d s c a l l e d u p , w ould you go r id e i n c a r w ith them ? Would you d r in k b e e r w ith f r i e n d s ? I f f r i e n d w anted to copy a t sc h o o l w ould you l e t him ? Would you go w ith f r i e n d s to f i g h t some g u y s? .6 2 .5 7 .55 .52 .3 2 .30 FACTOR If Would you s t e a l g a s w ith f r i e n d s ? I f f r ie n d s a sk e d you to do som ething wrong w ould you do i t w ith them? Would you b re a k in to a p la c e and s t e a l s t u f f w ith f r ie n d s ? Would you s k ip sc h o o l w ith f r ie n d s ? I f f r ie n d s w an ted you to do so m ething p a r e n ts had t o l d you n e v e r to d o , w ould y o u do i t w ith them ? ' I f f r i e n d w an ted to copy a t sc h o o l w ould y o u l e t him? .75 .68 .6 7 .65 .60 .50 f — 1 O' TABLE 22— C ontinued EACTOB *f-- I f you w ere d o in g homework and f r ie n d s c a l l e d w ould you go ,h6 C ontinued r i d e i n c a r w ith them ? Would you go f i g h t w ith f r i e n d s ? .38 I f f r i e n d was i n tr o u b le w ith th e law w ould you h id e him ? .3*f TABLE 23 SCALING ATTEMPTS; PEEE IDENTIFICATION MEASUBES S c a le Name Item Item E r r o r C o e f f ic ie n ts o f B e p r o d u c ib ility SCALE I E a t F in k S c a le ( F a c to r 1 ) Would y o u " f i n k 1 1 to p o lic e ? Would you '.'fin k " to p a r e n ts ? Would you " fin k " to te a c h e r s ? 6 0 9 .95 SCALE I I A c e -in -th e -H o le ( F a c to r 2 ) Would you h id e f r i e n d who had ru n away from home? Would y o u h id e f r i e n d i n tr o u b le w ith th e law ? 7 0 .97 SCALE I I I S o c i a b i l i t y (F a c to r 3 ) I f y o u w ere w a tc h in g TV w ould you go m ess aro u n d w ith f r i e n d s in s te a d ? Would y o u d r in k b e e r w ith f r ie n d s ? I f y o u were g o in g to c h u rc h w ould you go w ith f r i e n d s in s te a d ? I f y o u w ere d oing homework w ould you go m ess around w ith f r i e n d s in s te a d ? 12 20 3 9 .89 SCALE IV D eviance ( F a c to r b ) Would you do so m eth in g y o u r p a r e n ts - t o l d you n e v e r to do w ith a f r ie n d ? Would you l e t a f r i e n d copy a t sc h o o l? Would you do so m eth in g t h a t you knew was w rong w ith a f r i e n d ? Would you s k ip sc h o o l w ith a f r ie n d ? Would you s t e a l g a s w ith a f r ie n d ? Would y o u b re a k i n t o a p la c e and s t e a l some s t u f f w ith a f r ie n d ? 10 15 11 5 7 if .92 £ TABLE 2b RESCALING: BEER IDENTIFICATION M EASURES S c a le Name Ite m Item E r r o r C o e f f ic ie n ts o f R e p r o d u c ib ility SCALE V II S o c i a b i l i t y I f y o u w ere w a tc h in g TV w ould you go m ess aro u n d w ith f r i e n d s in s te a d ? I f y o u w ere g o in g to c h u rc h w ould you go m ess aro u n d w ith f r i e n d s in s te a d ? I f y o u w ere d o in g homework w ould y o u go m ess aro u n d w ith f r i e n d s in s te a d ? 6 0 10 .95 SCALE V III D eviance Would y o u do so m eth in g p a r e n ts had t o l d you n e v e r to do w ith f r ie n d s ? Would y o u do so m ething you knew was w rong w ith f r ie n d s ? Would you s k ip sc h o o l w ith f r ie n d s ? Would you go s t e a l g a s w ith f r ie n d s ? Would you b re a k i n t o a p la c e and s t e a l some s t u f f w ith f r ie n d s ? 10 15 3 4 - 4 - .93 H -< J v D 180 In S c a le IV , "co p y in g a t s c h o o l" a ls o had h ig h ite m e r r o r and th e lo w e s t f a c t o r lo a d in g i n com parison w ith th e o th e r ite m s i n i t s c l u s t e r . T h is , i n c o m b in atio n w ith th e f a c t t h a t co p y in g a t sc h o o l i s u s u a ll y n o t c o n s id e re d a s e r io u s form o f d e lin q u e n t a c t i v i t y , r e s u l t e d i n i t s b e in g d ropped from th e s c a l e . R e s c a lin g was a tte m p te d , u s in g th e f iv e re m a in in g ite m s . T h is new s c a le (S c a le V I II) may a ls o be found i n T ab le 2^-. The C o e f f ic ie n t o f t h i s s c a le changed from .9 2 to .9 3 . Development o f Background S ca les As was done w ith the O ffense S ca les and the Peer S c a le s , a prelim inary fa c to r a n a ly sis was performed on a s e r ie s o f tw enty-nine s o c ia l background m easures. This wasj i done i n o r d e r to d e te rm in e p o t e n t i a l l y s c a la b le d im en sio n s o f th e s o c i a l h i s t o r i e s o f th e b o y s . The ite m s u s e d and th e r e s u l t i n g f a c t o r m a tr ix may b e fo u n d i n T able 2 5 . A s im p lif ie d d e s c r i p t i o n o f th e f a c t o r s may be fo u n d i n T ab le 2 6 . F a c to r s 1 and 7 w ere s e le c te d f o r i i s c a l i n g . I t was d e c id e d t h a t th e s e two c l u s t e r s c o n ta in e d th e c l e a r e s t m ean in g s. These f a c t o r s w ere la b e le d a s a S chool I n t e r e s t F a c to r and an Academic P erform ance F a c to r . M o reo v er, i n o r d e r to m easure o th e r a s p e c ts o f background h i s t o r i e s , a d e c is io n was made to a tte m p t to s c a le a Fam ily R e la tio n s h ip d im e n sio n , a S e lf-C o n c e p t d im e n sio n , an i A s p ir a tio n d im e n sio n , and a Work E x p e rie n c e d im e n sio n , i n TABLE 25 R O T A T E D FA C TO R M ATRIX: B A C K G R O U N D M E A SU R E S Item F a c t o r L o a d i n g s 1 2 3 1 * 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Age .09 .01 .0 2 .10 .03 .0 5 .03 .01 .03 .50 .0 2 .03 P opulation o f c i l y .06 .13 .03 .02 .30 .33 .02 .13 .1 2 .oi* .19 .0 2 Transiency .03 .11* .11+ .22 .01 .1 5 .01* .07 .11* .1*5 .26 .08 P arents liv in g ? .08 .05 .06 .10 .10 .01 .10 .01+ .1 5 .02 .01* .oi* Socioeconom ic sta tu s .01 .C A f .09 .08 M .06 .00 .07 .1 0 .09 .00 .01 Parents g e t along? .07 .d* .3 ^ .1 2 .11 .21+ .03 .oi* .08 .03 .09 .28 Boy g e ts along with, parents? .01 .00 .0 0 .16 .oi* .01 .13 .00 .01* .02 .01 .61* Parents exp lain ? .11 .0*+ .0 2 .11 .13 .13 . .01* .^9 .11 .10 .09 .25 School in t e r e s t .72 .03 .1 0 .00 . 1 1 * .00 .03 .00 .0 2 .09 .15 .15 School in t e r e s t compared w ith fr ie n d s .68 .06 .01 .01* .li* .0 7 .11 .01 .03 .01+ .08 .08 L eft sch ool .08 .01 .0 7 .07 .05 .05 .60 .00 .0 0 .02 .12 .1 0 Grades in school .1+6 .12 .03 .11 .25 .13 .31 .07 .13 .17 .08 .10 Number o f school a c t i v i t i e s .**9 .29 .2 1 .07 .02 .02 .21 .03 .11* .10 .51 .01 Number o f awards a t school .29 .03 .01* .03 .00 .00 .01* .02 .11 .12 .5 7 .22 Leadership se lf-c o n c e p t .16 .02 .19 .03 .02 .08 .09 .01* .1 2 .09 .61 .13 Smartness se lf-c o n c e p t .06 .08 .11 .03 .03 .0 2 .01 .1*0 .01* .01* .11 .20 M aturity se lf-c o n c e p t .07 .11 .0 7 .03 .03 .11 .06 .06 .08 .05 .01 .05 School a sp ira tio n s .62 .15 .11 .09 .1 7 .02 .13 .11* .01 .06 .27 .01* Importance o f frie n d s .12 .50 .0 2 .03 .02 .0 2 .0*+ .11* .09 .05 .01 .00 oo H TABLE 25— Continued Ite m P a c t o r L o a d i n g 3 - 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 E njoy a d u lts ? .3 7 .34 .4 7 .04 .04 .18 .04 .01 .06 .0 7 .09 .1 0 D ecide on l i f e ' s w ork? .2** .04 .0 2 .23 .02 .18 .19 .09 .05 .10 .25 .03 Had jo b b e fo re ? .04 .06 .06 .03 .0 7 .03 .00 .02 .56 .11 .00 .03 Humber o f jo b s i n l i f e .01 .02 .5** .07 .00 .0 4 .18 .10 .0 2 .01 .21 .09 E v e r f i r e d from jo b ? .12 .08 .25 .08 .05 .3 4 .26 .13 .05 .06 .0 7 .09 R ate f a t h e r 's jo b .05 .05 .01 .06 .06 .56 .01 .12 .01 .02 .03 .06 Money a s p i r a t i o n s .07 .03 .1 4 .13 .44 .03 .08 .12 .33 .21 .01 .0 5 Im p o rtan ce o f money a s p i r a t i o n s H O • .01 .0 7 .53 .13 .0 7 .08 .03 .01 .06 .00 .16 C la ss p r e fe r e n c e f o r f r ie n d s .08 .12 .01 .05 .06 .01 .04 .06 .03 .11 .03 .03 Church a tte n d a n c e .02 .04 .30 .04 .07 .03 .19 .11 .06 .15 .05 .0 7 H 00 to 183 TABLE 26 DESCRIPTION OP FACTORS: B A C K G R O U N D M EA SU RES Factor Number Item F actor Loading 1 School in t e r e s t o f boy .72 School in te r e s t compared w ith frie n d s .68 School a sp ir a tio n s .62 Number o f sch ool a c t i v i t i e s M Grades in sch ool M Enjoy ad u lts? .37 2 Importance o f frie n d s .50 Enjoy ad u lts? .3*+ 3 Number o f jobs in l i f e .5*f Enjoy ad u lts? M Parents g e t along w ith each other? .3k Church attendance .30 b Importance o f making money .53 5 Socioeconom ic sta tu s Money a sp ir a tio n s M 6 Rate fa th e r 's job .56 Ever fir e d from job? P opulation o f c it y o f resid en ce .33 7 Ever l e f t school? .60 Grades in school .31 8 P arents ex p la in why they do th in g s •f+9 Smartness s e lf-c o n c e p t ,ko 9 Had job before .56 Money a sp ir a tio n s .33 10 Age .50 Transiency .**5 18k TABLE 26— C o n tin u ed F a c to r Eumber Item F a c to r L oading 11 L e a d e r s e lf - c o n c e p t Number o f aw ards a t sc h o o l .61 .5 7 12 Does boy g e t a lo n g w ith p a r e n ts ? 185 a d d itio n to th e d im en sio n s e v id e n t i n th e f a c t o r c l u s t e r i n g s . The r e s u l t s o f th e s e sc alo g ram a n a ly s e s may he fo u n d i n T ab le 2 7 . F o r th e m ost p a r t , th e C o e f f ic ie n ts o f fie p ro due i b i l i t y w ere g r e a t e r th a n .9 0 , th e o n ly two ex cep t i o n s b e in g S c a le I and S c a le IV. A ll o f th e s e s c a le s c o n ta in e d l e s s th a n f iv e ite m s . T h is , com bined w ith th e f a c t t h a t a l l o f th e ite m s w ere d ic h o to m iz e d , a g a in m ig h t r a i s e q u e s tio n s re g a rd in g th e a c t u a l u n id im e n s io n a lity o f th e s c a l e s . F o r, a s th e num ber o f ite m s and ite m re s p o n s e s a r e d e c r e a s e d , th e chance p r o b a b i l i t y o f a t t a i n i n g a h ig h C o e f f ic ie n t o f R ep ro d u ci b i l i t y may be in c r e a s e d . S c a le s I and I I a re b a sed on f a c t o r c l u s t e r i n g s and t h i s le n d s some c re d e n c e and s u p p o rt to t h e i r u n id im e n s io n a lity . S c a le s I I I th ro u g h V I, how e v e r , a r e n o t b a se d on f a c t o r c l u s t e r i n g s and i t may be more l i k e l y t h a t t h e i r C fi's a r e a r e f l e c t i o n o f ch an ce p r o b a b i l i t y . N e v e r th e le s s , i t i s f e l t t h a t th e u l t i m a t e t e s t o f th e v a l i d i t y and u t i l i t y o f a s c a le i s a p ra g m a tic o n e . W hether th e y c o n t r ib u t e to th e u n d e rs ta n d in g and p r e d i c t i o n o f b e h a v io r w i l l be d e te rm in e d i n th e a n a ly s e s o f t h i s d i s s e r t a t i o n . TABLE 27 DESCRIPTION OP BACK G RO U N D MEASURES S c a le Item Item E r r o r C o e f f ic ie n ts o f R e p r o d u c ib ility I S chool I n t e r e s t S cale 1 . School i n t e r e s t 2 . School i n t e r e s t com pared w ith f r i e n d s 3 . G rades i n sc h o o l b . Number o f sc h o o l a c t i v i t i e s 5 . School a s p i r a t i o n s 11 8 16 7 12 .89 I I Academic P erfo rm an ce S c a le 1 . E v e r l e f t s c h o o l? 2 . G rades i n sc h o o l 0 16 .92 I I I Pam ily R e la tio n s h ip s S c a le 1 . P a re n ts l i v i n g ? 2 . P a re n ts g e t a lo n g ? 3 . Boys g e t a lo n g w ith p a r e n ts ? 13 2 12 .91 IV S e lf-C o n c e p t S c a le 1 . L e a d e rsh ip s e lf - c o n c e p t 2 . S m artn ess s e lf - c o n c e p t 3 . M a tu rity s e lf - c o n c e p t 10 12 12 .88 V A s p ir a tio n s S c a le 1 . S chool a s p i r a t i o n s 2 . D ecide on l i f e ' s work 3 . Money a s p i r a t i o n s 7 7 11 .91 VI Work E x p e rie n c e S c a le 1 . Had jo b b e f o re ? 2 . E v er f i r e d from jo b ? 3 0 .98 00 O s AP P E N D I X B T H E REGRESSION M O D E L S 187 TABLE 28 PREDICTION OP SOCIOMETRIC STANDING PROM INPUT MEASURES: EXPERIMENTAL GROUP S tep Number V a ria b le Added In c re a s e in R2 C um ulative R2 B eta W eight i n 1 0 -V a ri a b le Model Z e ro -O rd e r r w ith D ependent V a ria b le 1 B*-Academic p erfo rm an ce .0284 .0284 .2596 .168 2 B - Age .0281 .0564 - .3243 - .1 4 7 3 0 - S e rio u s n e s s .0343 .0907 .0978 .153 4 J - A lie n a tio n .0208 .1115 .0332 .114 5 B - Work .0176 .1291 .1895 .127 6 0 - P e rs o n a l d is o r g a n iz a tio n .0135 .1427 .3722 .149 7 B - A s p ira tio n s .0118 .1545 -.0 6 4 5 - .1 0 0 8 0 - H a b itu a ln e s s .0135 .1680 -.0 5 6 CO ITS 0 . 1 9 P - A c e - in -th e - h o le .0062 .17^1 - .1 1 2 7 -.0 5 3 10 0 - T h e ft .0068 .1809 .1313 .059 T o ta l 2 R a f t e r f i r s t 10 - s te p s .1809 A lpha= 3.19 * B d e s ig n a te s background s c a l e s , 0 d e s ig n a te s o ffe n s e s c a l e s , J d e s ig n a te s th e s c a le s o f th e J e s n e s s P e r s o n a lity I n v e n to ry , P d e s ig n a te s p e e r i d e n t i f i c a t i o n s c a l e s . T h is same code i s fo llo w e d f o r th e re m a in in g ta b l e s i n t h i s s e c t io n . 1 8 5 1 TABLE 29 PREDICTION OP CRITICAL INCIDENTS PROM INPUT MEASURES: . EXPERIMENTAL GROUP ,S te p Number V a ria b le Added I n c re a s e i n R2 C um ulative R2 B e ta W eight i n 1 0 -V a ri a b le Model Z e ro -O rd e r r w ith D ependent V a ria b le 1 J - S o c ia l m a la d ju stm e n t 1 • .1738 .1738 .163^ ,b l7 2 J - R e p re ssio n .0793 .2531 -.2 1 0 9 - .3 0 5 3 0 ~ L ength o f tim e betw een l a s t o f fe n s e and p ro gram e n tr a n c e .0511 . 30^2 .1860 .321 b 0 - H a b itu a ln e s s .0^17 .3^58 .1916 . l 8* f 5 0 - T h e ft .0360 .3818 -.5 9 6 ^ - .1 0 5 6 J - A lie n a tio n .0219 .^038 - .1 0 5 7 .199 7 j - A s o c ia lity .0206 .*+2^3 : -.0 8 5 9 .073 8 J - S o c ia l m a la d ju stm e n t 2 .0154- .^398 -.0 7 8 7 .375 9 0 - A utom obile s c a le .O llif M l 2 .^219 .131 10 0 - P am ily o f f e n s e s s c a le .0098 M lO .3*+221 .196 T o ta l R^ a f t e r f i r s t 10 - s te p s M i o A lpha = -2 .0 7 2 2 5 § TA BLE 30 PREDICTION OP SCHOOL GRADES PROM INPUT MEASURES; EXPERIMENTAL GROUP S tep Number V a ria b le Added In c re a s e . i n R2 C um ulative R2 B eta W eight i n 1 0 -V a ri a b le Model Z e ro -O rd e r r w ith D ependent • V a ria b le 1 B - A s p ira tio n s .1*4-22 .1*4-22 .161 .3 77 2 P - D eviancy .0565 .1988 -.1 7 5 7 - .2 1 1 3 J - R e p re ssio n .03*4-9 .2337 -.0 5 6 8 -.2 2 1 * 4 - 0 - D is o rg a n iz a tio n .0359 .2696 .5925 .198 5 J ~ A ffe c t .0338 .303*+ .0*4-97 .151 6 B - Academic p erfo rm an ce .0253 .3286 .*fl*4-7 .188 7 B - S chool b e h a v io r .036*4- .3651 -.2 1 5 2 . 0 0 8 o - Number o f i n c a r c e r a tio n s .0196 .38*4-7 -.2 5 2 0 - .022 9 B - Work .0251 A 098 -.2 5 9 1 - .1 9 2 10 J " A lie n a tio n .013*4- .*4-232 -.0 2 9 5 - .083 T o ta l R2 a f t e r f i r s t 10 - s te p s .*4-232 A lpha = .8826 VO TABLE 31 PREDICTION OP SCHOOL GRADES PROM INPUT MEASURES: CONTROL GROUP Step Number Variable Added Increase in R2 Cumulative R2 Beta Weight in 1 0 -Vari able Model Zero-Order r w ith Dependent V ariable 1 0 Length o f time between l a s t o ffe n se and pro gram entrance .1112 .1112 -.1 1 8 6 - .3 3 3 2 J - S o c ia l maladjustment .0636 .17^8 -.0 3 0 2 -.2*t8 3 P - S o c ia b ility .0826 .2573 .2892 .168 b 0 - Pamily o ffe n se s .0521 .309^ .3672 .150 5 B - Academic performance .0577 .3671 .2875 .3-57 6 B - W ork .0267 .3939 - .1260 - .2 2 5 7 J - A ffe ct .0218 M 5 6 -.0 8 3 6 - .0 8 2 8 J - Value o r ie n ta tio n .0253 M 0 9 -.0 3 2 7 - .2 2 6 9.. J - S o c ia l a n xiety .0297 .-**706 -.0 8 2 1 -.l! f6 V 10 J - A lien a tio n .©165 . W l -.0 6 9 2 - .2 5 1 * T otal R2 a fte r f i r s t 10 - ste p s A 871 Alpha = 3 .75 TABLE 32 PREDICTION OP RUNAWAYS USING INPUT AND PROCESS.MEASURES: EXPERIMENTAL GROUP S te p Number V a ria b le Added In c re a s e i n R2 C um ulative R2 B e ta W eight i n 1 0 -V a ri- a b le Model Z e ro -O rd e r r w ith D ependent V a ria b le 1 0 - S e rio u s n e s s .026 .026 -.0 5 1 7 9 .162 2 P - S o c i a b i l i t y .02*f .050 .106^5 .l*f2 3 0 - A utom obile .025 .075 .207*f2 .151 if B - S chool i n t e r e s t .02^ .099 .(* 9 9 .107 5 0 - P e rs o n a l d is o r g a n iz a tio n .018 .117 .2 771 * .10*f 6 0 - Fam ily pro b lem s .011 .128 .11882 .055 7 B - S e lf- c o n c e p t .008 .136 .05538 .089 8 J - S o c ia l a n x ie ty .008 .Ik b .01599 .093 9 J - R e p re ssio n .007 .151 .03029 .080 10 P — D eviancv .009 .160 .(* 6 6 1 .116 T o ta l R2 a f t e r f i r s t 10 - s te p s .160 A lpha = .56728 IV) TABLE 33 PREDICTION OP RUNAWAYS USING INPUT AND PROCESS MEASURES: CONTROL GROUP S tep Number V a ria b le Added I n c re a s e i n R C um ulative R2 B e ta W eight i n 1 0 -V a ri a b le Model Z e ro -O rd e r ; r w ith D ependent V a ria b le 1 0 - F am ily p ro b lem s .0706 .0706 .21705 .266 2 B - S chool s c a le .029 .1005 .19008 .163 3 0 - A utom obile s c a le .027 .1268 -.2 9 4 8 1 - .1 6 7 h 0 - S e rio u s n e s s .027 .1536 .074-12 .132 5 B - S e lf- c o n c e p t .024- .1782 -.2 6 8 6 2 -.0 7 6 6 B - A s p ira tio n s .034- .2115 .17809 .080 7 J - S o c ia l a n x ie ty .026 .2385 .03075 .064- 8 B - Age .028 .2660 -.1754-3 - .1 1 5 9 J - W ithdraw al .013 .2789 .05285 .056 10 J - A utism .026 .30*7 -.0 3 6 1 2 - .1 0 1 T o ta l R2 a f t e r f i r s t 10 - s te p s .30^7 A lpha = - .5398 TABLE 3b PREDICTION O F FAILURE USING INPUT A N D PROCESS . M EASURES: EXPERIM ENTAL G R O U P S tep Number V a ria b le Added In c re a s e i n R2 C um ulative R2 B eta W eight i n 1 0 -V a ri a b le Model Z e ro -O rd e r ; r w ith D ependent V a ria b le 1 0 - S e rio u s n e s s .0536 .0536 : -.o636*f - .2 3 2 2 J - A lie n a tio n .0^35 .0971 - . 01^-50 - .2 1 7 3 0 - T h e ft .(*-23 .139^ .11508 .096 if 0 - Fam ily .0332 .1726 .10726 .200 5 J - A utism .0183 .1909 .01572 .010 6 B - S o c ia l c l a s s .0119 .2029 .01985 .077 7 0 - P e rs o n a l d iso rg a n iz a tio n .0128 .2157 .105^7 .135 8 J - R e p re ssio n .0095 .2252 .02735 .073 9 J - W ithdraw al .0138 .2390 -.0 2 8 0 5 -.OC*- 10 J - S o c ia l a n x ie ty .0305 .2696 .02176 .211 T o ta l R^ a f t e r f i r s t 10 - s te p s .2696 A lpha = 1.88733 TABLE 35 PREDICTION OP FAILURE USING INPUT AND PROCESS MEASURES: CONTROL GROUP S tep Number . V a ria b le Added I n c re a s e i n R2 C um ulative R2 B e ta W eight i n 1 0 -V a ri- a b le Model Z e ro -O rd e r r w ith D ependent V a ria b le 1 0 - Number o f In c a rc e ra tio n s .0928 .0928 - .1 9 5 8 5 ' ; - .3 0 5 2 0 - S e rio u s n e s s .0266 .119^ -.0 3 7 9 ^ - .2 1 8 3 J - S o c ia l a n x ie ty .0212 .1^06 .02081* .137 b j - A ffe c t .0211 .1617 -.0 1 5 6 9 -.01*1* 5 J - A utism .02^3 .i8 6 0 .01531 .109 6 0 - T h e ft .011*9 .2009 .0681*2 -.0 0 3 7 J - R e p re ssio n .0108 .2117 .01579 .066 8 B - S o c ia l c l a s s .0101 .2218 . O l ^ l .0 77 9 B - Work .0071 .2289 -.0 5 2 2 3 - .0 8 5 10 B - S e lf- c o n c e p t .0059 .23^7 .0211*2 .112 T o ta l R2 a f t e r f i r s t 10 - s te p s .23^7 A lpha = 1 .78619 vO TABLE 36 PREDICTION OP LENGTH OP STAY IN TREATMENT USING INPUT AND. PROCESS MEASURES: ' CONTROL GROUP SUCCESSFUL GRADUATES S tep Number V a ria b le Added In c re a s e i n R2 C um ulative R2 B eta W eight i n 1 0 -V a ri a b le Model Z e ro -O rd e r r w ith D ependent V a ria b le 1 0 - T h e ft .0687 .0687 .3*4-867 .262 2 0 - Fam ily : .0^98 .1185 .63860 .192 3 0 - S t r e e t c o m e r .0**38 .1623 -.7 9 0 7 6 - .1 8 2 b 0 - L en g th o f tim e .036*4- .1987 .11682 .2*+5 5 P - R a tfin k ; .0276 .2263 -.3 7 5 1 3 £ H • 1 6 B - F am ily d is o r g a n iz a tio n .0320 .2583 .53*+85 .161 7 J - A utism ' .0185 .2769 .08270 .101 8 J - A s o c ia l in d e x : .0181 .2950 -.0*f*4-53 - .0 9 7 9 0 - I n c fir c e r a tio n .0118 .3068 .37389 .100 10 . P - S o c i a b i l i t y .0082 .3150 .16537 .079 T o ta l E r , a f t e r f i r s t 10 - s te p s .3150 A lpha = 5.22*t6*f o v TABLE 37 PBEDICTION OF LENGTH 01* STAY IN TEEATMENT USING INPUT AND PHOCESS MEASUEES: CONTEOL GEOUP PAILUEES AND SUNAWATS S te p Number V a ria b le Added I n c re a s e i n E2 C um ulative E2 B a ta W eight i n IC ^ V a ri- a b le Model ^ e ro -O rd e r r w ith D ependent V a ria b le 1 B - So.cioeconom ic s t a t u s .0985 .0985 -.5 6 6 ^ 2 -.31** 2 J - S o c ia l a n x ie ty .1389 .237b -.2 3 3 0 3 1 • ro 00 LU 3 B - Age .0777 .3151 -1 .1 ^ 9 0 3 -.1 8 6 b J - S o c ia l m a la d ju stm e n t 2 .0637 .3788 -.2 7 0 3 3 - .0 5 1 5 0 - A utom obile .0287 .b079 -.7 2 9 9 1 - .2 8 2 6 B ” Work .0196 M 7 5 .70210 .006 7 J - S o e ia l m a la d ju stm e n t 1 .0225 M o o .11517 - .0 ^ 0 8 P - S o c i a b i l i t y .0239 •b739 -.3 9 7 6 7 1 • 0 00 VO 9 0 - T h e ft .0122 .b 8 6 l -.W h 5 o ,07b 10 0 - S t r e e t c o r n e r .0105 .b966 - M i 51 .007 T o ta l E2 a f t e r f i r s t 10 - s te p s .b966 A lpha = 1 ^ . 53053 -S T A B L E 38 PBEDICTION OP LENGTH OP STAY IN TBEATMENT -USING INPUT AND PROCESS MEASURES; EXPERIMENTAL GROUP SUCCESSFUL GRADUATES S tep Number V a ria b le Added I n c re a s e . i n R2 C um ulative R2 B eta W eight i n 1 0 -V a ri a b le Model Z e ro -O rd e r r w ith D ependent V a ria b le 1 J - S o c ia l m a la d ju stm e n t 1 .0*4-03 .0*4-03 .0980*4- .201 2 0 - T h e ft .0299 .0702 -.3**257 - .1 7 9 3 0 - Number p a s t i n c a r e e r a - a tio n s .027*+ .0976 .2 * 4 -3 * 4 -6 .169 if 0 - A utom obile o f fe n s e s .0303 .1279 .2*4-215 .097 5 P - R a tfin k .0270 .1550 .10526 .065 6 B - S e lf- c o n c e p t .0189 .1738 -.0 9 5 5 0 - .1 2 7 7 j - W ithdraw al .0157 .1895 .02768 .111 8 j - A utism .OlMf .20*4-0 - .08629 .106 9 J - A s o c ia l in d e x .0266 .2305 -.0 5 3 6 0 -.0*4-1 10 J - A lie n a tio n .0153 .2*4-58 - .0*4-266 .115 T o ta l R2 a f t e r f i r s t 10 - s te p s .2*4-58 A lpha = 2.66726 i TABLE 39 PREDICTION OF LENGTH OF STAY IN TREATMENT USING INPUT AND PROCESS MEASURES: EXPERIMENTAL GROUP FAILURES AND RUNAWAYS S tep Number V a ria b le Added I n c re a s e i n R2 C um ulative R2 B eta W eight i n 1 0 -V a ri a b le Model Z e ro -O rd e r r w ith D ependent V a ria b le 1 J - S o c ia l m a la d ju stm e n t .1134- .113 V .0934-9 .337 2 ;J - R e p re ssio n .0713 .184-7 -.1 3 9 3 8 - .316 3 0 - T h e ft .0616 .74-63 -.5 7 3 2 0 - .1 9 6 4 - 0 - S e rio u s n e s s .0565 .3028 .16689 .185 5 S o c io m e tric .0315 .334-3 -.21834- - .1 9 6 6 0 - Fam ily .0285 .3628 -.2 5 1 3 6 - .116 7 J - W ithdraw al .0253 .3881 .074-00 .080 8 B - Work .0232 .4-113 -.24-919 -.2 2 3 9 0 - L ength o f tim e .0125 .4-238 .04-185 .14-5 10 J - A utism .0136 .4-374- -.0 4 4 6 2 .063 T o ta l R2 a f t e r f i r s t 10 - s te p s .4-374- A lpha = .16010 .TA B L E 4-0 PREDICTION OP BECIDIVISM USING INPUT AND PROCESS MEASURES:. CONTROL GROUP SUCCESSFUL GRADUATES S tep Number V a ria b le Added I n c re a s e i n R2 C um ulative R2 B eta W eight i n 1 0 -V a ri a b le Model Z e ro -O rd e r r w ith D ependent V a ria b le 1 0 - A utom obile .0987 .0987 .52037 .314- 2 P - D eviancy .0791 .1777 .22960 .278 3 P - S o c i a b i l i t y .0836 ,2 6 lif -.1 5 9 5 3 - .1 3 6 if o - T h e ft .0311 .2925 -.2004-3 - .1 5 7 5 B - F am ily d is o r g a n iz a tio n .0327 .3252 .17338 .136 6 0 - I n c a r c e r a tio n .0183 . 3 ^ -.2 2 0 9 3 - .1 8 5 7 J " A utism .0203 .3637 -.0 2 8 8 2 C O CO 0 • 1 8 J - A lie n a tio n .02»f3 .3880 .04-276 .136 9 J - S o c ia l m a la d ju stm e n t 1 .014-7 .4-027 -.0 5 2 5 5 - .106 10 J - S o c ia l m a la d ju stm e n t 2 .0290 .if317 .64-839 .077 T o ta l R2 a f t e r f i r s t 10 - s te p s .**317 A lpha = .31569 TABLE b l PREDICTION O P RECIDIVISM USING INPUT A N D PROCESS M EASURES: C O N T R O L G R O U P FAILURES A N D R U N A W A Y S S te p Number V a ria b le Added In c re a s e i n R2 C um ulative B eta W eight i n 1 0 -V a ri a b le Model Z e ro -O rd e r r w ith D ependent V a ria b le 1 J - S o c ia l a n x ie ty .0725 .0725 -.0 8 2 ^ 6 - .2 6 9 2 J - A f fe c t .1007 .1732 .05265 .0 5 7 3 P - A c e - in -th e - h o le .12^-1 .2973 -.5 1 8 9 7 -.2^-5 ; b P - D eviancy .036^ .3337 -.1 6 8 7 ^ - .0 5 7 5 J - S o c ia l m a la d ju stm e n t 2 .0^87 .382*f .1^560 .2^-9 6 J - S o c ia l m a la d ju stm e n t 1 .0399 A 223 -.1 1 5 8 1 .092 7 J - V alue o r i e n t a t i o n .0291 .^515 .05077 .253 8 0 - P e rs o n a l d is o r g a n iz a tio n .02J+9 .^763 .37532 - .0 2 5 9 B - F am ily d is o r g a n iz a tio n .0219 .^983 .29001 .207 10 0 - Fam ily pro b lem s | .0185 .5168 .21157 .< M T o ta l R2 a f t e r f i r s t 10 - s te p s .5168 A lpha = 1.6 8 6 7 2 TABLE b 2 PREDICTION OP RECIDIVISM USING INPUT AND PROCESS MEASURES: EXPERIMENTAL GROUP SUCCESSFUL GRADUATES S te p Number V a ria b le Used In c re a s e i n R2 C um ulative B e ta W eight i n 1 0 -V a ri- a b le Model 2 e ro -O rd e r r w ith D ependent : V a ria b le 1 B - Fam ily d is o r g a n iz a tio n .1119 .1119 .56805 .335 2 :o - T h e ft .0659 .1778 .63120 .281 3 j - S o c ia l a n x ie ty .0if05 .2182 -.0 6 7 2 3 i • ro o 00 if j - R e p re ssio n .0372 .255^ -.1 1 2 8 if .001 5 : j - A utism : .0257 .2811 .07522 - .1 1 8 6 S o c io m e tric s ta n d in g .0191 .3002 -.3 5 ^ 2 5 i 8 o 7 b - A s p ira tio n s .0218 .3220 -.I0 if6 if -.1 2 3 8 p - S o c i a b i l i t y .0316 .3536 -.2 0 6 5 6 - .128 9 0 - H a b itu a ln e s s .0162 .3698 -.O if5 l2 .057 10 J - A s o c ia l in d e x .0lif8 .38if6 .02666 .052 T o ta l R2 a f t e r f i r s t 10 - s te p s .38if6 A lpha = .8*f05if TABLE lf3 PREDICTION O F RECIDIVISM USING INPUT A N D PROCESS M EASURES: EXPERIM ENTAL G R O U P . FAILURES A N D R U N A W A Y S Z e ro -O rd e r r w ith D ependent V a ria b le S tep Number V a ria b le Added I n c re a s e . i n R2 C um ulative R2 B eta W eight i n 1 0 -V a ri a b le Model 1 B - Fam ily d is o r g a n iz a tio n .0620 .0620 .5^075 .2^9 2 0 - S t r e e t c o m e r .0916 .1536 -.8>+905 ■ - . 20^ 3 •0 - T h e ft .0290 .1826 .27523 : .222 b J - A s o c ia l in d e x .0270 .2096 -.0 ^ 7 8 3 00 ON 0 . 1 5 J - R e p re s sio n .02Mf .23^0 -.1 1 5 1 8 • - .081 6 B - A s p ir a tio n s .030^ . 26^ -.I5 l2 * f 1 • H 7 0 - I n c a r c e r a tio n s .0285 .2929 -.2 8 6 0 5 1 • O O N OO 8 B - Academic p erfo rm an ce .0092 .3022 .21389 .028 9 P - B a tfin k s c a le .0109 .3131 -.1 ^ 2 9 5 - .132 10 B - Work b e h a v io r .0073 .320^ ,1799+ .123 ' T o ta l R2 a f t e r f i r s t 10 - s te p s .320^- A lpha = 2.3162 TABLE Mf PEEDICTION OP LENGTH OP TIME BEPOBE PIRST RECIDIVISM: EXPERIMENTAL GROUP RECIIlIVISTS S tep Number V a ria b le Added I n c re a s e i n R2 C um ulative R2 B eta W eight i n 1 0 -V a ri- a b le Model Z e ro -O rd e r r w ith D ependent V a ria b le 1 P - R a tfin k .067^ .067^ -.6 3 5 2 8 -.2 6 0 2 0 - L ength o f tim e .05^2 .1216 - .32^5** H •iti • i 3 B - Work .0505 .1721 -1 .3 1 6 7 1 - .1 6 7 b J - V alue o r i e n t a t i o n .0^5^ .2175 .l670*f .213 5 0 - A utom obile s c a le .0339 .251^ -1 .2 ^ 1 5 0 - .2 1 5 6 B - Pam ily d is o r g a n iz a tio n .03^1 .2855 ,8b2k7 .022 7 B - Academic p erfo rm an ce .03^8 .3203 -.5 6 0 9 1 -.l* f8 8 P - S o c i a b i l i t y .0193 .3396 .798^6 .108 9 B - S ocioeconom ic s t a t u s .0222 .3618 -.2 6 8 9 2 -.1 1 5 10 P - D eviancy .02^1 .3859 - . ^ 019 5 - .1 ^ 7 T o ta l i 2 , a f t e r f i r s t 10 - s te p s .3859 A lpha = 5.63085 TABLE 1+5 PREDICTION OP LENGTH OP TIME BEPORE RECIDIVISM USING INPUT AND PROCESS MEASURES: CONTROL GROUP RECIDIVISTS S te p Number V a ria b le Added I n c re a s e i n R C um ulative R B e ta W eight i n 1 0 -V a ri a b le Model jZ ero-O rder r w ith D ependent V a ria b le 1 P - D eviancy .121+7 .121+7 -1.01+083 ; “ .353 2 P - A c e - in -th e - h o le .1826 .3073 2.0881+0 ON • 3 J - W ithdraw al .0571+ .361+7 -.2181+2 ~ .3 1 +5 i+ B ~ Age .0612 .1+259 1.1+8001 • .306 5 B - Academic p erfo rm an ce .01+13 A 671 -1 .1 8 3 2 8 ; -.0 1 0 6 J - A ffe c t .01+07 .5078 : -.2 0 9 9 2 - .277 7 J - S o c ia l a n x ie ty .0371+ .51+52 .28612 f t 0 • 1 8 B - S e lf- c o n c e p t .031+0 .5792 1 . 001+11 ■ .018 9 B - A s p ira tio n s .01+36 .6228 -.5 ^ 1 0 3 1 V 0 0 0 10 0 - S e rio u s n e s s .0151 .6379 .21+332 .053 T o ta l R^ a f t e r f i r s t 10 - s te p s .6379 A lpha = 2.71376 A P P E N D I X C THE COMPUTER PRO GRA M FOR THE SIMULATION 206 C THIS PRO GRA M IS A LINEAR SIMULATION OF SILVERLAKB C SIMULATION PROGRAM,SAMSIZ CANNOT EXCEED 280 DIMENSION X (1 + 3 ),S C (2 ,1 0 ,2 8 0 ),P (2 ,1 0 ),R (2 ,1 0 ),C (1 + 3 ),S S (2 ,1 0 ), 1 S X (2 ,1 0 ),S M (2 ,1 C ),S D (2 ,1 0 ) N=0 XN=0. DO 1+00 1 = 1 ,2 DO 1+00 J = 1 ,10 D O 1+00 E r l , 280 S C (I,J ,K )= 0 . s s ( i , j )=o . S X (I,J )= 0 . S M (I,J)= 0 . *+00 S D (I,J )= 0 . C READ IN CONTROL CARD,N=SAMSIZ ,K=1=SIMEX,K=2=SIMC0N,E=3=SIMB0TH,M=1= C PRINT RESIDUALS, OTHERWISE M=0 9 00 1+01 1 = 1,2 DO 1+01 J = l,1 0 P ( I ,J ) = 0 . 1+01 R ( I ,J ) = 0 . D O 1+02 1=1 ,1+3 X (I)= 0 . 1+02 C (I)= 0 . C INPUT FOR DATA READ FRO M DECK 25 READ 2 ,I D ,( X ( l ) ,1=1,1+3) 2 FORMAT(2X, 13 ^ F l . 0 ,1+X,F1. 0 ,F2.0,1X ,1+F1. 0 ,1X ,3F 1. 0 ,2 X ,F 1 . 0 ,2X,1+F1.0 1 ,1X ,10F2 . 0 ,1X ,3F 1.0 ,1 X ,F 1 . 0 ,1X ,2F 1. 0 ,1 X ,3 F 1 . 0 ,2X, 2F1. 0 ,1X,1+F1.0 ) CCI)=X(29) : . C (2)=X (30) C(3)=XC31) C(1+)=X(32) c(5)=x(33) C(6)=x(3lf) C(7)=X(35) c(8)=x(39) 208 C M C M C M C M W O O * C M rO H C M C M CMC'- C'-CO U N H C M CO O C M J - C M H ON J-NO rO + W^co * H c/3 no H & q O ' - ' O - t f g I CM CO O N O 0 O • I n Q O + W co HINto co h c o en j-j- C M r l O WWW I I I I I I CM I CO OH C M + Hto mmmto'-'O H to I I fxiH H EH W H W t o H C O HO ONH % I ' ' W M I » to W O c o * S * i ' /^On C '- s - ' ° 1 V_X > < 5 I * ^ n IT N '" 'C M tN • CM' I ^ S ^ ' H C O i C N H j - ^ N c o m c o m H C M CO NO '— ' O • ' - f • • i o ' W I * I * 0 + '“ ' C O ^ON ^ c v t o o n t o ^ cm O C O C M to C C N • O • H ' - ' C M I H H I N T I ' - ' + w ^ w ^ z ! W ^ n S * O * ' “ 'c o * m c o j - C " O N lf N H C ^ « H t r \ H O ' - ' t > lf N '- 'f c » • • H H • I H ' - ' W to v_"->to + * + V N H + ' • ' H CMlfN vO C M O J - ( M O « l H H • « CO CM CO • • • N -/C q • ' — 'f t ) C M '- ' II I II W II I P h P h I N O 0 0 OO O ON H ^ i H H • I H H ' " " w " ' 0 ' - ' v - ' O P H O N to P 4 + t o PM C " OO o o o o o o 209 * in o I N '- ' H O O a ‘ 3 - s a - « a ii ^ *o H cO ^+ O 'a E H v O O'-Npq • r — I • !2J ■ - PhIcn liM O H O II r l ^ y H Ss C M tq ' — ' M Ph C O O ' - ' a F M * H t d O P4 IN C M mo\ ♦ ITN IN C M H r n v O U N C M O onco H O N v O C M OV>0 • o n O S3 3 O c ! j o o H un^ OINJ- • O • H o a f f o ^ ii o it m '- 'C O '- ' '* C M m O N '" ' *! 2B * « C M CO CMH C M • CMtO M C O P h + M<i eg H o J3 0 O IN H uN S I C l> o • O M C M C M O I T " - / M C M i 00 £m ^ M ^ ~ v S_/ » 0 * vO M ' - ' CM H * + CO CM'—' C M '" n EH » M lO N ^ c O ' ^ * • C M H I O [ > • I { x j H ^ H '- '< * Q O O '—' '' - ' 0 0 H , - „ _ O l • M * M I H ONvO * ^ d h + r a n t o c m c o ^ m ' - " ■ ' ‘ c o * i ' CM ON CO M '- 'P q l T N '- N ^ cm M J * '" n • H CO ♦ CM O O H a ' —'* v £ > ^ . r o c M O • CM CO + ON • CM CO I M O CM'—' t D C M '- 'C M H ^ * O • M f O + M > ^ • + ' - ' P C M £ j ' - ' * S ' " * * H O ' - ' ' " M P h H H CO + r O P '- N l C N P l H + ■ '■ n * CO H • ^ O V O O H ' - " " * r l C O M w I ■ ' ^ • I CM « 0 W '- n '- 'O C O M + 'C q * J - M » o * ^ a ^ i a « + * ' - ' O IN ^ -» C 0 M '- ' C O * IT N + p U N O O H * ' - ' H C O c o ' ^ ' c g * h > o Ed lT N C O < J 3 ' m • r3 > C M H > O ONM H * w y H t f v t O H • H O ' - ' I MP • x f l | rn* H^lxjH I Ma H V T N O O + * O ON* M I N ' - ' • tN cq c M C M c q 'O C M • I M rOCM M •HpqCM '~N . . • • H « a I I C C N H I I + M I I '-'pH || » C 0 '^'NO'N | O'-" I BOH ' O ' — ' C n- ' ~ ' 0 0 O N '" ' r l v •*+ P h * ' _ ± M • * M «M C M O C M 0 /0 C M O C M O O C M * '-s v -/ |2J '- ✓ C M '— 'C O P i^ m F M * eq F4^pq PMHUI M H O HEH H P H O '— 'EH H C M c S o r y O a a a a o Ph o o 101 CONTINUE C STOBE PREDICTIONS IN LARGE MATRIX D O 110 1 = 1 ,2 DO 110 J = l,1 0 K=N 110 S C ( I ,J ,K ) = P ( I ,J ) C COM PUTE RESIDUAIfi (=PHED. MINUS ACTUAL) IP(M .EQ.O) G O TO 111 D O 112 1= 1,2 D O 113 J = l ,6 113 R ( I ,J ) = P ( I ,J ) - C ( J ) R ( I ,7 ) = P ( I ,7 ) - C ( 6 ) RC1,8 )=P( 1 ,8 )-C (7 ) RCI,9)=P(I,9)-C(7) 112 R( 1 .1 0 )=P( 1 ,1 0 )-C (8 ) 111 CONTINUE C PRINT INDIVIDUAL O U TCO M ES 200 PORM AT ( / / / ) 201 PORM AT (1H0) 202 PORM AT (1H1) 204- PORM AT ( / / ) PRINT 202 PRINT 2 0 3 ,ID 203 PO RM A T (lf7X,22HIDENTIPICATI0N NUM BER ,1 3 ) PRINT 20*t 10X 50H****^*********************************************^ ’ PRINT 205 PRINT 201 PRINT 206 206 PORMAT( 2*+X, 22HEXPERIMENTAL O U TCO M ES AlX,l6HC0NTR0L OUTCOMES) PRINT 201 PRINT 205 PRINT 201+ PR IN T 215 , P ( l,9 ) , 0(9) , f i ( l , 9) , P (2 ,9 ) , 0(9) , fi(2 ,9 ) hi h a hi Wh) o W 1 -3 0 0 p> f H 3 rooj^ru O M H H H > . O O N O ' * * * + • HHt - ° s p O O M wc OO M VO CD O o 1-9 « H rooo^ro O H H H H - O O o S V *V ° V J J H « P 5 x » O O H S I M ' — *6 f c e j SKh O • o<^ o o 0 - 0 hi hi hi hi ■ W P W ji • K f ii ■ oo F « * » 1 - 3 rooj^ro r o O M H H O h I o -t h O ' * * hi • H*” - * O v o j H X* P i > * U I W O ' M N w -o o o H »x)gHH x * t-3 * * H 9 ood-sjvj rooo^fu M H P O M H H '« O f O H « » O H h£j h ) ^3'-' • IV) O 0 » X. 0 0 O J w M X* X* hi o > o • O CD * • O o M '* h) W "sld -N • iu OOw x * 00 W iW hdM- . W O NH O o H v j ) O J O n u O Oo*» MW X * / X hi l\) O v * • O '. X * OO M S S w ~ x a U > « • to M hi hi hi Whl p ro o o O M H H H O V O O ' * * hi I x J f x jx * O K H K - -oro o ro OO H 00 hi O JIU O O JO o o v n IV) o 00 ro o ^ 3 hi hi hi hi O n hi E | 8 E g | ^ ^ 1 6 § h 3 H P C O P * . -F" ^ n d t o V R w ITS 216 POBMAT(lOX, IP(SUCC) RECID.,9X, P 7 .3 ,3 X ,P 6.0,3X ,P 7*3 ,3>*X, 1 P 7 .3 ,3 X ,P 6 .0 ,3 X ,P 7 .3 ) PRINT 201 PRINT 217 , P ( l ,1 0 ) ,C (1 0 ) , R ( l,1 0 ) ,P (2 ,1 0 ) , C (10) , R (2 ,1 0 ) 217 POBMAT( 10X, 16HIP(RE CID) L.TIMB,8X, P 7.3»3X ,P6.0,3X ,P7.3»3fcX , 1 P 7 .3 ,3 X ,P 6 .0 ,3 X ,P 7 .3 ) PRINT 20*+ PRINT 205 XN=N G O TO 9 C COM PUTE SYSTEMS O U TCO M ES 99 CONTINUE C COM PUTE SUM S OP X MATRIX D O 300 1= 1,2 do 300 j = i , i o D O 300 K=1,N 300 S X (I,J )= S X (I,J )+ S C (I,J ,K ) C COM PUTE THE M EA N S DO 301 1= 1,2 do 301 j = i , i o 301 SM( I , j )=sx( I , J )/XN C COM PUTE SUM S OP SQUARES MATRIX N O 302 1=1,2 DO 302 J = l,1 0 D O 302 K=1,N 302 SS( I . J)= S S ( I , J ) + ( ( SC( I , J ,K )-S M (I,J ))* * 2 ) C COM PUTE STANDARD DEVIATIONS DO 303 1=1,2 DO 303 J = l,1 0 303 S D (I,J)= S ^ R T (S S (I,J)/X N ) C OUTPUT STATEMENT.POR SYSTEMS O U TCO M ES PRINT 202 PRINT 200 PRINT 2 5 0 ,N 212 250 POBMAT( 2 5X, 20HSYSTENS O U T C O M E S ,N = ,13 ) PfiIN T 201 213 02 ITS ITN ro C 5 M 02 w v O ro • % co v O coj-irvo #s CM CM CM CM 0 2 0 2 0 2 CO » fs r« Hi3Ki CM C ^ C J O O N ';-' > f t * f t * •'P h CM CM CM 0 2 02 02 02 W r O J - ICNnO I N 0 O ON CM ft ft ft r CM CM CM CM a s a s 02 02 02 02 •'CM r o j * v r s v O P-| «s vt f t «v r l H H r H H 02 02 02 02 02 02 CM CM C M S ■ ^^C ^-C 02 a a a * 0 2 0 2 020 • ^ a # % o t> - 0 O O N • * •* •* • 'H H H rH ^ R f = » ( = » 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 * * UNCiJ »'M g a ^ 'O rvi O T ro \tn •» ftio Mt ‘ \T\HvO H'OH O O O O O O U N r O CM CM CM CM CM CM CM '— '< 4 CM g g g g g p P g t4aj PM PM PM PM PM PM PM l * tU N P 4 c t H CM f t f t f t f t f t r v f t f t f»jg» M n n m s n s ™ - H CM r o j - M N vO 0 - 0 0 O N H f t f t f t f t f t f t f t f t f t f t r l r l r l H H H H H H r l a a a a a a a a a a 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 00 OnO H C M r o j - M N n O IN O O O H H H H H H r l r l O CMCMCMCMCMCMCMCMCMCMCM l l a i p i p m p m f m p m p m p m p M W W p m i VfN o CM EH EH P M o 2 p q I B I B L I O G R A P H Y 21b BIBLIOGRAPHY Ando. 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Creator Lubeck, Steven Glenn (author)

Core Title S.T.P.: A Simulation Of Treatment Processes

Contributor Digitized by ProQuest (provenance)

Degree Doctor of Philosophy

Degree Program Sociology

Publisher University of Southern California (original), University of Southern California. Libraries (digital)

Tag OAI-PMH Harvest,sociology, criminology and penology

Language English

Advisor Empey, Lamar T. (committee chair), Bengtson, Vern L. (committee member), Labovitz, Sanford I. (committee member), Larson, William R. (committee member), Turk, Herman (committee member)

Permanent Link (DOI) https://doi.org/10.25549/usctheses-c18-393419

Unique identifier UC11361150

Identifier 7011376.pdf (filename),usctheses-c18-393419 (legacy record id)

Legacy Identifier 7011376.pdf

Dmrecord 393419

Document Type Dissertation

Rights Lubeck, Steven Glenn

Type texts

Source University of Southern California (contributing entity), University of Southern California Dissertations and Theses (collection)

Access Conditions The author retains rights to his/her dissertation, thesis or other graduate work according to U.S. copyright law. Electronic access is being provided by the USC Libraries in agreement with the au...

Repository Name University of Southern California Digital Library

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