University of Southern California Dissertations and Theses

An Experimental Study Of An Application Of Game Theory To The Selection Of Arguments By College Debaters

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An Experimental Study Of An Application Of Game Theory To The Selection Of Arguments By College Debaters

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Content This dissertation has been microfilmed exactly as received 69-19,379 KETTi C harles Richard, 1936- AN EXPERIMENTAL STUDY OF AN APPLICATION OF GAME THEORY TO THE SELECTION OF ARGUMENTS BY COLLEGE DEBATERS. U niversity of Southern C alifornia, PhuD., 1969 Speech University Microfilms, Inc., Ann Arbor, Michigan AN EXPERIMENTAL STUDY OF AN APPLICATION OF GAM E THEORY TO THE SELECTION OF ARGUMENTS BY COLLEGE DEBATERS b y C h a r le s R ic h a r d K e ll A D i s s e r t a t i o n P r e s e n te d to th e FACULTY OF THE DEPARTMENT OF SPEECH UNIVERSITY OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA In P a r t i a l F u l f i l l m e n t o f th e R e q u ire m e n ts f o r th e D egree DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY - (S p e ec h ) J a n u a r y 19^9 UNIVERSITY O F SO U TH ERN CA LIFO RN IA T H E GRADUATE SCHOOL. UNIVERSITY PARK LOS A N G ELES. CALIFORNIA 9 0 0 0 7 This dissertation, written by Charles Richard Eell under the direction of A ™ Dissertation Com mittee, and approved by all its members, has been presented to and accepted by The Gradu ate School, in partial fulfillment of require ments for the degree of D O C T O R O F P H IL O S O P H Y O Dealt D ate. J.a&u3.£y^.i.9.6.9. DISSEBETATiI0N COMMITTEE — C*&'-Chairman ■ s ) . TABLE OF CONTENTS Page | ;l i s t of t a b l e s ............................................................................................. i v : LIST OF IL L U S T R A T IO N S ................................................................................. v i :C h a p te r | I . THE P R O B L E M ...................................................................................... 1 O r i g i n s o f t h e P ro b lem N a tu r e o f Game T h eo ry S ta te m e n t o f t h e P ro b le m S i g n i f i c a n c e o f th e S tu d y D e f i n i t i o n s o f Terms O r g a n i z a t i o n o f t h e R e m a in d e r o f th e S tu d y I I . REVIEW OF THE LITERATURE............................................... 26 B i b l i o g r a p h i c a l S e a rc h C u r r e n t S t a t e o f R e s e a r c h J u d g e s 1 E v a l u a t i o n s o f A rgum ents D e b a t e r s ' E v a l u a t i o n s o f A rgum ents R e l a t e d S t u d i e s A r g u m e n ta tio n T e x tb o o k s M a th e m a tic a l M odels I I I . TECHNIQUES AND PR O CED U RES.......................................... 40 D e s c r i p t i o n o f T e c h n iq u e s A d m i n i s t r a t i o n o f th e E x p e rim e n t P r o c e s s i n g o f th e D a ta IV . PRESENTATION OF THE DATA . ; ..................................... 60 A n a l y s i s o f N e ed -A d v a n ta g e ChoiceB A n a l y s i s o f Games I - V I I I A n a l y s i s o f T o u rn a m e n ts A n a l y s i s o f S e q u e n t i a l Games A n a l y s i s o f S u b j e c t s ' "X" an d "Y" S c o r e s A n a l y s i s o f S u b j e c t s ' P r e f e r e n c e L e v e ls A n a l y s i s o f E f f e c t o f E x p e r ie n c e a n d L o c a le i l 11 C h a p te r Page! V. SUMMARY, CONCLUSIONS, AND IMPLICATIONS . . . 8 l| Summary o f t h e S tu d y \ C o n c lu s io n s o f t h e S tu d y i I m p l i c a t i o n s o f th e S tu d y BIBLIOGRAPHY................................................................................................... 92; APPENDIX. Q u e s t i o n n a i r e an d I n s t r u c t i o n B o o k l e t . . 101 LIST OF TABLES T a b le P a g e : 1 . C l a s s i f i c a t i o n by S c h o o l o f S u b je c ts C o m p le tin g T e s ts ......................................................................... 49 2 . S c o rin g S ystem f o r "X" and "Y" Type G a m e B ................................................................................. 57: 3 . S u b j e c t s 1 Need and A d v an tag e C h o i c e s ............................. 6 l 4 . S u b j e c t s 1 C o r r e c t C h o ic e s i n "X" Tjn?e Games .......................................................................... 6 2 , 5 . S u b j e c t s 1 C o r r e c t C h o ic e s i n "Y" Type G a m e s .........................................* ................................... 6 3 ; 6_. t- V a lu e s O b ta in e d fro m C om parison o f C o r r e c t C h o ic e s In Games I I th ro u g h V I I I ................................................................................... 65 ! ] 7 . S u b j e c t s ' C o r r e c t C h o ic e s i n E ac h j E ig h t Round T o u r n a m e n t ......................................................... 68 j 8 . t- V a lu e s O b ta in e d from C om parison o f | C o r r e c t C h o ic e s I n T o u rn am en ts 1 th ro u g h 8 . . .“ .................................................................. 69 j 9 . t- V a lu e s O b ta in e d from C om parison o f ; C o r r e c t C h o ice s I n S e q u e n t i a l Games . . . . 7 1 i f r 1 0 . C l a s s i f i c a t i o n o f S u b je c tB by "X" and | "Y" S c o r e s and E x p e r im e n ta l j W ln-L oss R e c o r d 72 i I 1 1 . S i g n i f i c a n c e o f P r e f e r e n c e L e v e ls O b ta in e d j from C om parison o f D i f f e r e n c e s ! o f I n d i v i d u a l ' s C h o i c e s .............................................. 7 6 1 i 1 2 . C h i-S q u a re V a lu e s O b ta in e d from Com parison o f W ins an d L o sse s i n "X" an d "Y" Games w i t h E x p e c te d R e s u l t s o f " E q u a l" an d Mixed S t r a t e g i e s ..................... 78 1 1 3 . C h i-S q u a re V a lu e s O b ta in e d from Com parison j o f L e v e ls o f E x p e rie n c e w ith ! G roups A, B, C, D ......................................... 80 i v LIST OP ILLUSTRATIONS F ig u re Page 1 . T w o-Person Z ero-Sum Game w ith S a d d le P o i n t ............................................................................ 7 2 . T w o-Person Z ero-Sum Game Type " X " ........................... 11 3 . T w o-Person Z ero-Sum Game Type " Y " ........................... 12 4 . Games I - V I I I A rra n g e d b y P a i r s ..................................... 4 l 5. Sequence o f t h e P r e s e n t a t i o n o f Game T ypes by T ournam ent and by R o u n d .......................... 44 CHAPTER I THE PROBLEM O r i g i n b o f th e P roblem T r a d i t i o n a l l y , th e s tu d y o f a rg u m e n ts h a s b een c o n - j i c e rn e d w i t h t h e t h e o r e t i c a l a n a l y s i s o f a rg u m e n ts , o r w ith t h e ..a n a ly s is o f th e a c t u a l u s e s o f a rg u m e n ts , o r w ith some c o m b in a tio n o f th e s e a p p ro a c h e s . The l i t e r a t u r e a v a i l a b l e to a rg u m e n ta tio n s t u d e n ts i s p r i m a r i l y o f a n o rm a tiv e o r p r e s c r i p t i v e n a t u r e s in c e t h e r e i s l i t t l e q u a n t i t a t i v e r e s e a r c h c o n c e rn e d w ith th e s e l e c t i o n o f a rg u m e n ts . The d e b a t e r , i n p a r t i c u l a r , h a s some d i f f i c u l t p r o b lem s i n t h e s e l e c t i o n o f a rg u m e n ts ! F i r s t , th e d e b a t e r d o e s n o t know i n a d v an c e w ith c e r t a i n t y t h e ty p e o f o p p o n e n ts t h a t he w i l l have to m e e t. S econd, th e d e b a t e r d o es n o t know i n ad v an ce w ith c e r t a i n t y w h at c h o ic e s h i s o p p o n e n ts w i l l m ake. T h ir d , th e d e b a t e r d o e s n o t know i n advance w ith c e r t a i n t y t h e ty p e s o f Ju d g e s t h a t he w i l l e n c o u n te r an d w hat c h o ic e s th o s e ju d g e s w i l l re w a rd o r p u n is h . D i s c u s s io n s i n t h e l i t e r a t u r e o f th e a l t e r n a t i v e s t h a t d e b a t e r s and d e b a te Ju d g e s may ch o o se from o r o f w hat c h o ic e s d e b a t e r s and d e b a te ju d g e s do make may b e c l a s s i f i e d m a in ly a s q u a l i t a t i v e s t u d i e s r a t h e r th a n a s q u a n t i t a - 1 2 t l v e s t u d i e s . F u rth e r m o re , m ost o f t h e s e B tu d le s a r e a u d i e n c e - o r i e n t e d . T h at i s , th e prim e c o n c e rn o f t h e s e s t u d i e s i h a s b e e n th e e f f e c t o f a rg u m e n ts on th e a u d ie n c e o r ju d g e s r a t h e r th a n on t h e way i n w hich d e b a t e r s o r s p e a k e r s d e te r m in e d w hat a rg u m e n ts s h o u ld be p r e s e n t e d to th e a u d i e n c e s . ThuB, t h e r e i s l i t t l e c o n t a c t i n t h e l i t e r a t u r e b e - I i tw een how d e b a t e r s o u g h t to se e k to a f f e c t a u d ie n c e s and ; I how d e b a t e r s do se e k to a f f e c t a u d ie n c e s . ! One way to d e te rm in e how d e b a t e r s d e v e lo p a rg u m e n ts m ig h t b e to exam ine t h e i r p e rfo rm a n c e i n to u r n a m e n ts . How e v e r , i t i s d i f f i c u l t to r e t a i n c o n t r o l o v e r a l l th e v a r i a b l e s a s Ju d g e s and o p p o n e n ts s h i f t from round to ro u n d . As lo n g a s th e r e s e a r c h e r re m a in s c o m p le te ly i n th e f i e l d w ith " r e a l - l i f e " c o n d i t i o n s he m ust e x p e c t and a c c e p t th e l i m i t a t i o n s t h a t a re im posed by th e a c t i v i t y he i s a t t e m p t in g t o s tu d y . T h e r e fo r e , th e p ro b le m s o f d e te r m in in g how a rg u m e n ts a r e s e l e c t e d an d th e n a t u r e o f r e s e a r c h te c h n iq u e s a p p e a r to le a v e th e i n v e s t i g a t o r a t an im p a ss e . T hus, new a p p ro a c h e s a r e n e e d e d to e n a b le r e s e a r c h e r s t o move from f i e l d c o n d i t i o n s to th e l a b o r a t o r y w here t h e e f f e c t s o f v a r i o u s m o d els and th e o re m s can b e t e s t e d . T h is t e s t i n g may th e n e n a b le r e s e a r c h to r e t u r n to th e f i e l d and f i n d l i n k s b e tw ee n n o rm a tiv e and d e s c r i p t i v e k n o w le d g e. The a tte m p t t o d e v e lo p su c h a p p ro a c h e s l e d t h i s i n v e s t i g a t o r t o c o n s id e r t h e p o s s i b i l i t i e s o f u t i l i z i n g 3 some o f th e i n s i g h t s o f game t h e o r y to exam ine th e s e l e c t i o n o f a rg u m e n ts b y c o ll e g e d e b a t e r s . N a tu re o f Game Theory Game th e o r y w as d e v e lo p e d to p r o v id e a m a th e m a tic a l means o f d e a l in g w ith p ro b lem s i n th e s o c i a l s c i e n c e s . Two a u t h o r s who have u s e d game t h e o r y to a n a ly z e p ro b lem s i n j e co n o m ics and p o l i t i c a l s c ie n c e h a v e d e s c r i b e d th e d e v e lo p -; m ent o f game th e o r y i n th e f o llo w in g w o rd s: The th e o r y o f p e r m u ta tio n s and c o m b in a tio n s , w hich e v e n t u a l l y d e v e lo p e d i n t o s t a t i s t i c s , game th e o r y , an d i m odern d e c i s i o n t h e o r y , s t a r t e d o u t w i t h t h e a n a l y s i s o f games o f c h a n c e . A game o f chance i n i t s p u re form i n v o l v e s a d e v ic e o f some s o r t w hich p ro d u c e s v a r i o u s r e s u l t s w ith v a r y i n g p r o b a b i l i t i e s . The i n i t i a l w ork i n w h a t we now c a l l s t a t i s t i c s was an e x p l o r a t i o n o f th e r e l a t i v e fre q u e n c y w ith w hich v a r i o u s r e s u l t s may be e x p e c te d t o a p p e a r . I t m ig h t be r e g a r d e d a s an a t te m p t to d e te r m in e th e p r o p e r way to p l a c e b e t s . Among g am b lin g g am es, t h e r e a r e a num ber I n w hich th e g a i n s o r l o s s e s o f some g iv e n p l a y e r dep en d n o t o n ly on th e p e rfo rm a n c e o f a d e v ic e b u t a l s o on th e a c t i o n s o f a n o t h e r p l a y e r . In su c h gam es, a lth o u g h sim p le p r o b a b i l i t y c a l c u l a t i o n s a r e n o rm a lly o f some a s s i s t a n c e t o a shrew d p l a y e r , t h e y c a n n o t g i v e a co m p lete s e t o f I n s t r u c t i o n s on p r o p e r p la y . I n th e s e "games o f s t r a t e g y , " ^ . I f one p a r t y c h o o se s a s t r a t e g y , th e n t h i s s t r a t e g y w i l l form p a r t o f t h e d a ta w hich t h e o t h e r p a r t y Bhould c o n s i d e r In c h o o s in g h i s own s t r a t e g y . ! Game t h e o r y w as d e f in e d b y D re sh e r i n th e s e te rm s : The th e o r y o f games o f s t r a t e g y may b e d e s c r ib e d a s a m a th e m a tic a l th e o r y o f d e c is io n - m a k in g by p a r t i c i p a n t s i n a c o m p e titiv e e n v iro n m e n t. I n a t y p i c a l p ro b le m to w hich t h e th e o r y i s a p p l i c a b l e , e ac h p a r t i c - 1 Jam es M. B uchanan and G ordon T u llo c k , The C a lc u lu s o f C o n s e n t: L o g ic a l F o u n d a tio n s o f C o n s t i t u t i o n a l Democracy (Ann A rb o r: U n i v e r s i t y o f M ich ig an P r e s s , 1 9 5 2 J , p . 322. 4 i p a n t c a n b r i n g some i n f l u e n c e t o b e a r u p o n t h e o u tco m e o f a c e r t a i n e v e n t ; no s i n g l e p a r t i c i p a n t b y h i m s e l f n o r c h a n c e a l o n e c a n d e te r m i n e t h e o u tco m e c o m p l e t e l y . The t h e o r y i s c o n c e r n e d w i t h t h e p ro b le m o f c h o o s in g an o p t i m a l c o u r s e o f a c t i o n w h ic h t a k e s i n t o a c c o u n t j t h e p o s s i b l e a c t i o n s o f t h e p a r t i c i p a n t s a n d t h e c h a n c e ! e v e n t s . 2 When a d e b a t e r e n t e r s a to u r n a m e n t , h e m u st make a s e r i e s o f d e c i s i o n s . Prom t h e e v id e n c e w h ic h h e h a s s e - i l e c t e d — w h ic h i n i t s e l f e n t a i l s a s e r i e s o f d e c i s i o n s — he i m u st d e v e lo p a r g u m e n ts w h ic h a r e u s e d i n a t t e m p t s t o i n f l u - i i e n c e a num ber o f j u d g e s i n s u c c e s s i v e r o u n d s . T h r o u g h o u t t h i s p r o c e s s t h e d e b a t e r i s s u b j e c t t o r i s k - t a k i n g u n d e r v a r y i n g d e g r e e s o f u n c e r t a i n t y . S in c e t h e d e b a t e i s n o t r e s o l v e d s im p ly b y c h a n c e o r t h e s k i l l w h ic h t h e d e b a t e r b r i n g s t o t h e ro u n d * b u t b y t h e i n t e r a c t i o n o f t h e s e f a c t o r s w i t h t h e s t r a t e g i e s c h o s e n b y b o t h te a m s a n d t h e J u d g e s , t h i s s i t u a t i o n c a n b e c o n s i d e r e d a game o f s t r a t e g y . I t 1 b p r e c i s e l y t h i s t y p e o f p ro b le m t h a t c o n c e r n s game t h e o r y . F o r e x a m p le , c o n s i d e r t h e f o l l o w i n g com m ent: A d e c i s i o n p ro b le m i s t h e p ro b le m o f c h o o s- -g among a s e t o f a l t e r n a t i v e a c t i o n s . C l e a r l y s u c h a p ro b le m 1 b m e a n in g f u l o n l y i f w h o e v e r m u st make t h e c h o ic e h a s some i d e a o f w h a t t h e c o n s e q u e n c e s o f h i s c h o i c e may b e . I n t h e s i m p l e s t c a s e , e a c h c h o ic e o f a c t i o n l e a d s t o a s i n g l e s p e c i f i c c o n s e q u e n c e , so t h a t t h e c h o ic e o f a c t i o n i s e q u i v a l e n t t o a c h o i c e o f c o n s e q u e n c e s among a s e t o f c o n s e q u e n c e s . H ence t h e f i r s t c o n d i t i o n w h ic h m u st b e f u l f i l l e d I f a d e c i s i o n p ro b le m iB t o ,h a v e m e a n in g i s t h a t c h o i c e s m u st h a v e known c o n s e q u e n c e s . N e x t, c h o i c e I s m e a n in g f u l o n l y i f t h e c h o o s e r h a s p r e f e r e n c e s . T hus t h e s e c o n d c o n d i t i o n w h ic h m u st b e 2M e lv in D r e s h e r , Games o f S t r a t e g y : T h e o ry a n d A p p l i c a t i o n s (E n g le w o o d C l i f f s , New J e r B e y : P r e n t i c e - H a l l , 1 9 o i ) , p . 1 . 5 _ f u l f i l l i e d , I f t h e d e c i s i o n p ro b le m i s t o h a v e meaning* I s t h e e x i s t e n c e o f p r e f e r e n c e s f o r th e c h o o s e r. A g a in we may c o n s id e r t h e s i m p le s t c a s e i n w h ic h a l l th e p o s s i b l e c o n se q u e n c e s can be c l e a r l y ra n k o rd e re d * c a l l i n g t h e moBt p r e f e r r e d c o n se q u e n c e f i r s t c h o ic e * th e n e x t m o st p r e f e r r e d s e c o n d c h o ic e* e t c . We h a v e a lr e a d y a s - : sumed t h a t in t h e s i m p le s t c a se * each c h o ic e o f a c t i o n h a s e x a c t l y one con sequence* known to t h e c h o o se r. T h e r e f o r e th e d e c i s i o n p ro b lem i n t h i s c a s e re d u c e s t o th e p ro b le m o f a s s i g n i n g p r e f e r e n c e r a n k o r d e r s to t h e c o n seq u e n ce s* n o t i n g w hich c h o ic e l e a d s t o th e most p r e f e r r e d outcome* and c h o o s in g i t . 3 j T h e re a r e s e v e r a l f a c t o r s b y w hich gam es a re c l a s s ! ~ j f i e d . One o f th e s e f a c t o r s i s th e num ber o f p e rs o n s o r p l a y e r s who a re in v o lv e d i n an a c t i v i t y w h ich i s c a l l e d a game. The te rm "gam e” r e f e r s t o a l l th e r u l e s t h a t d e f i n e a p a r t i c u l a r a c t i v i t y and make i t . d i s t i n c t fro m s im ila r a c t i v i t i e s . Note t h a t t h e r e f e r e n c e i s to t h e number o f p la y e r s * n o t to th e num ber o f p e o p l e . In game th e o r y , a p e rs o n o r p l a y e r i s a f i c t i o n a l r e p r e s e n t a t i o n o f a l l t h o s e i n d i v i d u a l s who r e p r e s e n t a g iv e n p o s i t i o n . Thus* i t i s p o s s i b l e to sp eak o f a d e b a te te a m a s one p e r s o n even th o u g h i t i s composed o f two p e o p l e . The seco n d m a jo r d i s t i n c t i o n i s b e tw e e n games w h ic h a r e z e ro -su m and th o s e w hich a r e n o n -z e ro -s u m . I n zero-su m games th e p l a y e r s ' t o t a l g a in s a r e e q u a l to t h e t o t a l lo s s e s * t h u s th e game sums to z e r o . E le c t i o n s * chess* b u s i n e s s s a le s * poker* and d e b a te can a l l be ap p ro a ch e d a s th o u g h th e y w ere z e ro -su m gam es. However* i f th e p a r t i c l - ^ A n a to l R ap o p o rt* T w o-Person Game T h e o ry : The E s s e n t i a l I d e a s (Ann A rb o r: U n i v e r s i t y o f M ichigan P ress* i g 6b'}* p p . l b - l ^ . _____________________________________________________________ 6 p a n t s c h o o se to f i n d some a d d i t i v e re w a rd to t h e c o n s e - I q u e n c e s o f t h e gam e, t h e y h a v e t r a n s f o r m e d i t i n t o a n o n - | z e ro -s u m game w here th e g a i n s an d l o s s e s do n o t sum to z e r o . S i t u a t i o n s su c h a s e d u c a t i o n w here a l l may b e n e f i t , o r f a m i ly q u a r r e l s w here a l l may s u f f e r , w ould b e i n t h i s c a t e g o r y . The r e w a r d s i n e i t h e r ty p e o f game may be p o s i - i t i v e o r n e g a t i v e j t h a t i s , t h e y may g i v e th e p l a y e r s some fo rm o f p l e a s u r e o r p a i n . I t s h o u ld be n o t e d t h a t n e i t h e r game fo rm i s B trlct-t i l y c o m p e t i t i v e o r c o o p e r a t i v e . T h e re a r e e le m e n ts o f c o - I o p e r a t i o n i n t h e z e ro -su m game t h a t k e e p s p l a y e r s i n th e game e v en th o u g h some a r e l o s i n g . T h ere a r e e le m e n ts o f j c o n f l i c t i n t h e n o n -z e ro -s u m g a m e t h a t k e e p d r i v i n g some p l a y e r s to s e e k a b e t t e r b a r g a i n i n g p o s i t i o n , e v e n th o u g h j a l l p l a y e r s a r e g e t t i n g some b e n e f i t from th e s y s te m . F ig u r e 1 i s t h e m a t r i x o f a tw o - p e r s o n , z ero -su m game w i t h p l a y e r s c a l l e d A f f i r m a t i v e and N e g a t i v e . The g a i n s a n d l o s s e s o f e a c h p l a y e r a r e su c h t h a t t h e sum o f t h e game i s z e r o . E ach num ber r e f e r s t o th e n um ber o f j u d g e s who w i l l v o te f o r t h e A f f i r m a t i v e an d t h e N e g a tiv e I f t h e y m eet a t t h a t p o i n t . The num bers w i t h o u t p a r e n t h e s e s I n d i c a t e t h e p a y o f f s f o r t h e A f f i r m a t i v e j th e num bers w i t h in p a r e n t h e s e s I n d i c a t e t h e N e g a t i v e 's p a y o f f s . Even w i t h o u t a n y k n o w le d g e ”o f game t h e o r y , th e s o l u t i o n i s p r o b a b ly e v i d e n t . As lo n g a s t h e A f f i r m a t i v e p l a y s Sg I t w i l l w in . Thus t h e o n l y o p t i o n open t o t h e N e g a tiv e AFFIRMATIVE NEGATIVE S t r a t e g y A S t r a t e g y B <V <V S t r a t e g y 1 ( S j S t r a t e g y 2 ( s j o (3 ) 1 (2) 2 (1) 3 (0) 0 M inima 2* 2* 3 Maxima F ig . 1 . — T w o-P erson Z ero-Sum Game w it h S a d d le P o in t 8 I s to d e c id e how i t w a n ts t o l o s e . I f t h e N e g a tiv e p la y s S& i t w i l l l o s e 2 - l j i f t h e N e g a tiv e p l a y s I t w i l l lo s e 3 - 0 . B u t t h i s w i l l happen o n ly a s lo n g a s th e A f f i r m a t iv e \ s t i c k s w i t h Sg. I f th e A f f i r m a t iv e e v e r p la y s S ^ , t h e Nega t i v e w i l l w in . Thus a s lo n g a s th e N e g a tiv e p l a y s S . , i t a g u a r a n t e e s t h a t i t w i l l do no w orse t h a n lo s e a s p l i t d e c i - . s i o n and i t m a i n t a i n s t h e p o s s i b i l i t y t h a t I t c o u ld win i f th e A f f i r m a t iv e m akes a m is ta k e . As lo n g a s th e A ffirm a tiv e ; p l a y s Sg i t g u a r a n t e e s t h a t i t w i l l do no w orse t h a n w in by a s p l i t d e c i s i o n and m a i n t a i n s th e p o s s i b i l i t y t h a t i t c o u ld w in u n a n im o u sly i f t h e N e g a tiv e m akes a m i s t a k e . The game th u s h a s a " s a d d le p o i n t " s in c e i t i s i n e q u i l i b r i u m : The A f f i r m a t iv e s h o u ld a lw a y s w in; t h e N e g a tiv e s h o u ld a l - ways l o s e . ji A p l a y e r c o u ld a t t e m p t to o p t o u t o f th e game o r change t h e p a y o f f s i n some w ay. The f i r s t a l t e r n a t i v e d e p e n d s on w h e th e r t h e r u l e s p e rm it a r e s i g n a t i o n b e f o r e a s p e c i f i e d tim e . I n c h e s s , f o r ex am p le, one can B im ply r e s ig n i n a h o p e le s s s i t u a t i o n . In p u b l i c l i f e , a man may d e c id e to r e f r a i n from s p e a k in g and t h u s s u r r e n d e r ; b u t a p u b l i c s p e a k in g c l a s s m ig h t p r o h i b i t t h e same b e h a v i o r so he h a s t o B tay I n th e gam e. S i m i l a r l y , t h e r e a p p e a r s to be a t a c i t u n d e r s t a n d i n g i n i n t e r c o l l e g i a t e d e b a te t h a t a ro u n d w i l l b e c o m p le te d ev en though t h e r e s u l t may b e a f o re g o n e c o n c l u s i o n , e . g . , when a 6 0 -0 team m eets a 0 -6 0 te a m . The seco n d a l t e r n a t i v e r e q u i r e s a change o f gam es. A B tu d e n t who I s u n a b le to cope w ith a g iv e n p r o f e s s o r I n a r e q u i r e d c la s B may r e s o l v e h i s p ro b le m b y t r a n s f e r r i n g to a n o t h e r c l a s s , m a jo r, o r s c h o o l. B u t h e haB to p a y a p r i c e to g e t o u t o f one game an d I n t o a n o th e r o n e . A tte m p tin g to ch an g e h i s o r th e p r o f e s s o r r s b e h a v i o r b y adding some new s t r a t e g y w ould b e c h a n g in g to a new gam e. How d i f f i c u l t I t w o u ld be t o c a l c u l a t e t h e r e s u l t s o f s u c h a new game would dep en d on t h e d e g re e o f d e p a r t u r e fro m t h e o ld gam e. Most games a r e a n a ly z e d w ith t h e u n d e r s t a n d i n g t h a t r e s i g n a t i o n 9 The form al theorem f o r t h i s sta te m en t i s : There e x i s t s a number v , a pure s t r a t e g y (a maximln s t r a t e g y ) fo r p la y e r 1 which g u a r a n te e s him a t le a st'~ v 7 and a pure s t r a t e g y (a mlnimax s t r a t e g y ) fo r p la y e r 2 ! w hich g u a r a n te e s m a t p la y e r 1 g e t s a t most v . TheseT pure s t r a t e g ie s " a r e in e q u ilib r iu m , and any p a i r o f pure s t r a t e g i e s which a r e in e q u ilib r iu m , y i e l d a m axi- mln and a minimax s t r a t e g y f o r 1 and 2 r e s p e c t i v e l y . b \ Each o f th e A f f ir m a t iv e 's s t r a t e g i e s in F ig u re 1 j haB a minimum g a i n . I f he p la y s to g e t th e maximum minimum p o s s i b l e , S2 in t h i s c a s e , he h as p la y e d a maximln str a te g y .] Each o f th e N e g a t iv e 's s t r a t e g i e s h a s a maximum l o s s . I f the N e g a tiv e p la y s to g e t th e minimum maximum p o s s i b l e l o s s , S o i n t h i s c a s e , he h a s p la y e d a mlnimax s t r a t e g y . a The p r i n c i p a l th e o re m — known a s th e m lnim ax th eo re m — a s s e r t s t h a t t h e i t a l i c i z e d a s s e r t i o n f o r gam es w ith e q u i l i b r i u m p a i r s i s v a l i d f o r a l l z ero -su m gam es w ith a f i n i t e number o f p u re s t r a t e g i e s p r o v id e d t h a t th e dom ains o f c h a n c e o f t h e p l a y e r s i s e n la r g e d from t h e i r s e t s o f p u re s t r a t e g i e s to t h e i r s e t s o f m ixed s t r a t e ^ ~ K i e s . The mixed s t r a t e g i e s i s o l a t e d by th e theorem are c a l l e d maximln and minimax s t r a t e g i e s , and, e x te n d in g th e p r e v io u s te r m in o lo g y , th ey a r e s a id to form an e q u ilib r iu m p a i r . As w ith games h avin g pure s t r a t e g y e q u ilib r iu m p a i r s , th e v a lu e v In th e theorem I s unique and any maximln s t r a t e g y to g e th e r w ith any mlnimax. s t r a t e g y forms an e q u ilib r iu m p a i r . Thus, th e r e does n o t r e s u l t any c o n f l i c t o f i n t e r e s t among th e e q u i l i b rium mixed B tr a te g y p a i r s . The u n iq u e number v I s c a l l e d th e v a lu e o f the tw o-p erson zero-sum gam e.6 I s n o t p o s s i b l e u n l e s s some s p e c i f i c p r o v is io n I s made fo r t h a t a l t e r n a t i v e . T h e r e fo r e , th e p a y o f f s in a game a re e s t a b l i s h e d in advance. ^R. Duncan Luce and Howard R a i f f a , Games and D e c i s io n s : In tr o d u c tio n and C r i t i c a l Survey (New York: John W iley & SonB, I n c . , 1 9 5 7)> p . T1- 6 I b l d . , pp. 7 1 -7 2 . 10 I f th e o n ly gam es t h a t c o u ld b e a n a ly z e d w ere o n e s l i k e th o s e i n F ig u re l . t h e th e o r y w ould n o t h a v e much v a lu e . I t i s th e a b i l i t y to e x te n d th e a n a l y s i s to s i t u a t i o n s su c h eb thoBe i n F ig u r e s 2 an d 3 t h a t g i v e s th e t h e o r y r e a l v a lu e . I n F ig u r e 2, b o t h t h e A f f ir m a tiv e and t h e N e g a tiv e have one way to win an d on e way to l o s e i n e a c h o f t h e i r s t r a t e g y c h o i c e s . T h e r e f o r e , each h a s an e q u a l chance to win o r l o s e d ep en d in g on w h at h i s o p p o n e n t d o e s . The p o s s i b i l i t i e s may be sum m arized a s : A f f ir m a tiv e N e g a tiv e A f f i r m a t iv e N e g a tiv e C hooses ChooseB G e ts G e ts 51 s a 3 -0 ° - 3 S ± 0 - 3 3 -0 52 Sa 1 -2 2 -1 S2 Sb 2 - 1 1 -2 The system i s b a s i c a l l y u n s t a b l e o r dynam ic s in c e i t i s t o th e a d v a n ta g e o f b o th p a r t i e s to a v o id g iv in g t h e i r o p p o n e n t th e I m p r e s s io n t h a t th e y I n t e n d to p la y o n ly one s t r a t e g y . I f th e A f f i r m a t iv e m akes I t c l e a r t h a t I t w i l l p l a y S 1 th e N e g a tiv e can c o u n te r w ith . B u t I f th e A f f ir m a tiv e c h o o ses S2 t h e N e g a tiv e can c o u n te r w ith Sa . The same r e a s o n in g a p p l i e s to A f f ir m a tiv e r e s p o n s e s to th e N e g a t i v e ’ s c h o ic e s . Thus I t w ould a p p e a r t h a t t h e B ide t h a t c h o o se s 11 NEGATIVE S t r a t e g y A S t r a t e g y B (S J ( s j S t r a t e g y 1 a te g j (S.J AFFIRMATIVE S t r a t e g y 2 " (®2 J 3 (0) 0 (3)" 1 (2) 2 (1) • 2 2 J Maxima 0 Minima tivii F ig . 2 . — Tw o-Person Zero-Sum Game Type X AFFIRMATIVE | i ! F ig . NEGATIVE S t r a t e g y A S t r a t e g y <v <v S t r a t e g y 1 S t r a t e g y 2 Maxima 3 - — Tw o-Person Zero-Sum Game Type 1 Minima G 13 l a s t s h o u ld w in . However, i f we add t h e q u a l i f i c a t i o n t h a t ( i b o t h p l a y e r s m u st commit th e m s e lv e s i n advance an d r e v e a l j 1 t h e i r c h o ic e s s i m u lt a n e o u s ly th e b a la n c e b etw een t h e p l a y e r s i s r e s t o r e d . S in c e d e b a t e r s may h a v e to c h o o se an a r g u m ent b e f o r e a to u rn a m e n t so t h a t th e y h a v e tim e to p r e p a r e t h e a rg u m e n t t h i s r e q u ir e m e n t i s n o t u n r e a s o n a b l e . T hus, j t h e y a r r i v e a t t h e to u rn a m e n t p re - c o m m itte d to t h e i r m a jo r a rg u m e n t c h o i c e s . I n F i g u r e 3 th e s i t u a t i o n i s e s s e n t i a l l y t h e same a s t h e one i n F ig u r e 2, e x c e p t th e s i t u a t i o n s o f t h e p l a y e r s h av e b e en r e v e r s e d . The a s s u m p tio n t h a t b o th games |s h o u ld be p l a y e d t h e same w ay—b y some random d e v ic e t h a t a ll o w s e a c h p l a y e r to p l a y e a c h s t r a t e g y h a l f t h e tim e — o v e r lo o k s th e M lnimax Theorem c i t e d a b o v e . The f o llo w in g fo rm u la can b e a p p l i e d to th e games i n F i g u r e s 2 a n d 3 to a r r i v e a t th e b e s t s t r a t e g y m ix: J V = P* = q* = v* = 1 I * a b ' l c d. d -c a -b a + d -b -c f a + d -b -e d -b a - c a + d - b -c * a + d -b - c a d -b c a + d -b -c 7 'O tom ar J . B a r to s , S im ple M odels o f Group B e h a v io r (New York* C olum bia U n i v e r s i t y P re sB , l'9'bV), p p . 16^ - 1 6 9 . The s i g n s i n t h e s o l u t i o n a r e ig n o r e d . 14 A p p ly in g t h i s to t h e game i n F ig u r e 2 th e fo llo w in g r e s u l t s a r e o b t a i n e d ; P* = q* = 2 - 1 -3— T-.P- 3 + 2 - 0 - 1 ' 3 + 2 - 0 - 1 2-0 3 - 1 3 + 2 - 0 - 1 ' 3 + 2 - 0 - 1 , 1 3 2 jT j X 2 2 13x 2 -0 x1 1 6 V* - \ 5 + 2 - 0 - 1 I ~ W The o p tim a l s t r a t e g y f o r th e A f f i r m a t iv e (p * ) in th e "X" game o f F ig u re 2 i s to p la y S1 o n e - f o u r t h o f th e tim e an d Sg t h r e e - f o u r t h s o f th e tim e . The o p t im a l s t r a t e g y f o r th e N e g a tiv e (q*) i s t o p la y S& h a l f o f th e tim e and th e o t h e r h a l f . The o p t im a l v a lu e o f t h e game (v * ) i s 6/4 o r one and a h a l f Ju d g e s p e r p l a y . The A f f i r m a t iv e i s g u a r a n te e d t h a t i t can do no w orse th a n win one a n d a h a l f (Judges p e r p l a y . I The p r o c e d u re f o r th e a n a l y s i s o f th e "Y" game o f iF ig u re 3 i s t h e same w ith p* = 1 /2 , 1 / 2 j q* = 1 / 4 , 3 / 4 j and v* = 6/ 4 . Thus th e A f f i r m a t i v e s h o u ld do no w o rse th a n win h a l f o f an y r u n composed o f an e q u a l num ber o f "X" and "Y" gam es. I f t h e A f f i r m a t iv e w ere w i l l i n g to ta k e some r i s k , a h i g h e r g a in c o u ld be a c q u i r e d . H ow ever, w ould i t be w ise i n su c h c ir c u m s ta n c e s t o t a k e such r i s k s , even i f on e were 15 p l a y i n g a g a i n s t an o p p o n e n t t h a t c o u ld b e ta k e n a d v a n ta g e o f ? A game t h e o r i s t w ould s u g g e s t! . . . Even th o u g h a p l a y e r h a s a p u r e e q u i l i b r i u m s t r a t e g y an d r e a l i z e s I t , he may h a v e r e a s o n s to p l a y d i f f e r e n t l y I f h e t h i n k s t h a t h i s o p p o n e n t may n o t p l a y an e q u i l i b r i u m s t r a t e g y . One may d e p a r t from an e q u i l i b r i u m s t r a t e g y to e x p l o i t an o p p o n e n t s su p p o se d I g n o r a n c e , b u t I t may be s e n s i b l e to u s e a m ixed s t r a t e g y a s a hedge a g a i n s t e x tr e m e ly u n f a v o r a b l e s i t u a t i o n s and a g a i n s t th e p o s s i b i l i t y t h a t o n e ! s o p p o n e n t h a s m ore I n s i g h t i n t o o n e 's b e h a v i o r th a n a n t i c i p a t e d . 8 A p p ly in g t h e p r i n c i p l e s o f game t h e o r y to t h e p r o b lem s o f d e te r m in in g how d e b a t e r s s e l e c t a rg u m e n ts l e d t h e i n v e s t i g a t o r to c o n s i d e r th e p ro b lem w h ic h t h i s s tu d y a t te m p te d t o d e a l w ith by d e v e lo p in g a r e s e a r c h h y p o t h e s i s and t e s t i n g I t i n an e x p e r im e n ta l s i t u a t i o n . The n e x t s e c t i o n d e s c r i b e s th e s ta te m e n t o f t h a t p ro b le m . S ta te m e n t o f t h e P ro b lem I The p ro b le m o f t h i s s t u d y was t o t e s t th e h y p o t h e s i s t h a t t I n co m m u n icatio n s i t u a t i o n s s i m i l a r to n - p e r s o n , z ero -su m games w here p l a y e r s a r e r a t i o n a l , an d w here t h e y h ave p e r f e c t i n f o r m a t i o n , o n ly minimum w in n in g a rg u m e n ts w i l l b e s e l e c t e d . ^ The h y p o t h e s i s s t a t e s t h a t when on e o r more p e r s o n s engage I n a c o m m u n icatio n s i t u a t i o n t h a t I s s t r i c t l y co m p et i t i v e , — w h at one p l a y e r w in s , a n o th e r lo s e B — i f th e y p r e f e r Q Luce an d R a l f f a , o p . c i t . , p . 7 3 . ^ E or t h e d e r i v a t i o n o f t h i s h y p o t h e s i s se e W illia m H, R i k e r , The T h eo ry o f P o l i t i c a l O o a l i t l o n s (New H aven: Y ale U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s 7 19b2 ) . 1 6 g r e a t e r re w a rd s to l e s s e r r e w a r d s , and i f th e y know w hat t h e p a y o f f s o r r e s u l t s o f t h e i r own and t h e i r o p p o n e n t's i I s t r a t e g i e s can h e , th e s e p la y e r s w i l l s e l e c t th o s e B tr a te - j g i e s w hich g u a r a n te e them a minimum w inning argum ent, i . e . , t h a t th e y a c q u ir e th e maximum number o f Judges a t th e low e s t r i s k p o s s i b l e . i I f t h i s h y p o t h e s is w ere t e s t e d i n an e x p e rim e n t i i w here s u b j e c t s w ere drawn from a p o p u l a t i o n o f c o l l e g e d e - i b a t e r s and w here th e s u b j e c t s w ere e x p o sed to a s e r i e s o f games composed o f an e q u a l num ber o f "X" and nY" ty p e gam es, th e e x p e r im e n te r p r e d i c t e d t h a t th e s u b j e c t s w ould assum e t h a t t h e i r o p p o n e n t was r a t i o n a l and w ould t h e r e f o r e p l a y |a g a i n s t t h e i r o p p o n e n t by a d o p tin g a s t r a t e g y o f s e l e c t i n g !a rg u m e n ts w h ich w ould g u a r a n t e e th e s u b j e c t s minimum w in ning ! a rg u m e n ts . The e x p e r im e n te r a l s o p r e d i c t e d t h a t t h e s u b j e c t s ' p r e f e r e n c e l e v e l s w ould f a l l w i t h i n th e f o llo w in g ran g e s I f t h e s u b j e c t s p la y e d p u r e s t r a t e g i e s , t h e e x p e c te d p r e f - j e r e n c e s w ere 1 > 2 > 3 > 0 ; i f t h e s u b j e c t s p la y e d m ixed s t r a t - 10 e g l e s , th e e x p e c te d p r e f e r e n c e s w ere 1 ~ 2 > 3 ~ 0 . The p r e f e r e n c e s t h a t w ould r e s u l t from a p u r e s t r a t egy w ould I n d i c a t e t h a t th e s u b j e c t s h ad t h e f o llo w in g r a n k o r d e r o f p r e f e r e n c e s : ( l ) LoBe w ith one Ju d g e ; (2) Win The s t a te m e n t A* ~A " meanB th e te rm s a r e e q u i v a l e n t . The s ta te m e n t A»>A" means t h a t A' s t r o n g l y d o m in a te s A". A ' > A m means t h a t A' o n ly w e a k ly d o m in a te s A ". IT w i t h tw o j u d g e s ; ( 3 ) W in w i t h t h r e e j u d g e s ; (4 ) L o se w ith z e ro j u d g e s . T he p r e f e r e n c e s t h a t w ould r e s u l t fro m a m ix e d s t r a t e g y w o u ld i n d i c a t e t h a t t h e s u b j e c t s h a d t h e f o l l o w i n g r a n k o r d e r o f p r e f e r e n c e s : ( l ) Be i n d i f f e r e n t b e tw e e n w in n in g w i t h two ju d g e s o r l o s i n g w i t h o n e ju d g e ; (2 ) P r e f e r i e i t h e r w in n in g w ith two j u d g e s o r l o s i n g w i t h on e ju d g e to e i t h e r w in n in g w i t h t h r e e j u d g e s o r l o s i n g w i t h z e r o ju d g e s;- ( 3 ) Be i n d i f f e r e n t b e tw e e n w in n in g w i t h t h r e e j u d g e s o r l o s i n g w i t h z e ro J u d g e s . I j I n o r d e r t o t e s t t h e r e s e a r c h h y p o t h e s i s t h e f o l l o w i n g n u l l h y p o t h e s e s w e re f o r m u l a t e d : 1 . I f s u b j e c t s w e re p r e s e n t e d w i t h gam es w h ic h i |a s k e d th e m t o c h o o se b e tw e e n n e e d a n d a d v a n ta g e c a s e s , j t h e r e w o u ld be no s i g n i f i c a n t d i f f e r e n c e b e tw e e n s u b j e c t s ' 1 I c h o i c e s o f n e e d and a d v a n t a g e c a s e s . 1 ! 2 . I f s u b j e c t s w e re p r e s e n t e d w i t h gam es w i t h d i f - j f e r e n t c o m b i n a t i o n s o f t h e same p a y o f f s , t h e r e w o u ld b e no s i g n i f i c a n t d i f f e r e n c e b e tw e e n s u b j e c t s ' c h o ic e s i n d i f f e r e n t g a m e s. 3 . I f s u b j e c t s w e re p r e s e n t e d w i t h gam es o f t h e nX" a n d "Y" t y p e s , t h e r e w o u ld be no s i g n i f i c a n t d i f f e r e n c e b e tw e e n s u b j e c t s ' c h o i c e s I n ’’X" a n d "Y" ty p e g a m e s. 4 . I f s u b j e c t s w e re p r e s e n t e d w i t h game c h o i c e s u n d e r c o n d i t i o n s w h ic h w o u ld p e r m i t th em t o Im p le m e n t I n l a t e r m oves w h a t t h e y h a d l e a r n e d i n e a r l i e r m oves t h e r e 18 w o u ld "be no s i g n i f i c a n t d i f f e r e n c e b e tw ee n s u b j e c t s ' c h o ic e s i n e a r l i e r and l a t e r m oves. 5 . I f s u b j e c t s ' p r e fe r e n c e l e v e l s were c a lc u l a t e d , j th e r e would be no s i g n i f i c a n t d if f e r e n c e betw een s u b j e c t s w ith p r e fe r e n c e l e v e l s in th e range from l > 2 > 3 > 0 t o 1 ~ 2 > 3 ~ 0 and s u b j e c t s w ith d i f f e r e n t p r e fe r e n c e l e v e l s . I 6 . I f s u b j e c t s h a d d i f f e r e n t l e v e l s o f e x p e r ie n c e , i t h e r e w ould be no s i g n i f i c a n t d i f f e r e n c e b e tw ee n t h e s u b - j j e c t s * l e v e l o f e x p e r ie n c e and th e s u b j e c t s 1 e x p e r im e n ta l s c o r e s . 7 . I f s u b j e c t s to o k p a r t in th e exp erim en t in d i f f e r e n t l o c a l e s , th e r e would be no s i g n i f i c a n t d if f e r e n c e betw een th e s c o r e s o f s u b j e c t s in one l o c a l e and th e sc o r e s o f s u b j e c t s in o th e r l o c a l e s . S i g n i f i c a n c e o f th e S tu d y F i r s t , t h e a p p l i c a t i o n o f game t h e o r y i n t h i s s tu d y p e r m i t t e d th e e x p e r im e n te r to o f f e r c o l l e g e d e b a t e r s a s e r i e B o f f o r c e d c h o ic e s w h ich p r o v id e d some i n t e r e s t i n g i n s i g h t s w hich s h o u ld be u s e f u l i n p la n n in g f u t u r e b e h a v i o r a l r e s e a r c h I n t h e a r e a o f a rg u m e n ta tio n and d e b a t e . A ls o , s i n c e some d i s t i n c t i o n s m ust be made I n o r d e r to s tu d y a com plex phenom enon su c h a s t h e s e l e c t i o n o f a rg u m e n ts , t h i s s tu d y a tte m p te d to make thoB e d i s t i n c t i o n s by b e g in n in g t o c l a s s i f y t h e ty p e s o f d e b a te s i t u a t i o n s i n w hich a rg u m e n ts a r e c h o s e n , th e p a y o f f s t h a t o c c u r I n th o s e 19 s i t u a t i o n s , th e ty p e s o f i n f o r m a ti o n a v a i l a b l e to t h e p a r t i c i p a n t s i n th o s e s i t u a t i o n s , an d th e c o n s e q u e n t b e h a v io r ! o f th e p a r t i c i p a n t s . S econd , t h i s s tu d y d e v e lo p e d th e o p e r a t i o n a l t e c h n i q u e s n e c e s s a r y to i n i t i a t e t h e a p p l i c a t i o n o f th e m a th e m a t i c a l c o n c e p ts o f game t h e o r y t o p ro b le m s i n S p e e ch . Of i c o u r s e , t h e r e a r e s e v e r e l i m i t a t i o n s im posed by th e n a t u r e o f game t h e o r y . 11 I t w ould b e d i f f i c u l t to a rg u e t h a t t h e r e a r e many s i t u a t i o n s w here a d e b a t e r i s f a c e d w ith o n ly two a l t e r n a t i v e s o r w here he knows p r e c i s e l y w h a t t h e outcom es o f hiB c h o ic e s w i l l b e . B u t i t i s p r e c i s e l y th e s e l i m i t a t i o n s w hich g iv e game th e o r y v a l u e . The a b i l i t y to re d u c e a com plex p ro b le m to sim p le term B p e r m i t s i n v e s t i g a t i o n s o f a h u e r i s t i c n a t u r e . T h ere i s a l i k e l i h o o d o f o p e n in g u p new v ie w p o in ts o r a p p ro a c h e s w h ich t r a d i t i o n a l m ethods may h a v e o v e rlo o k e d o r n o t d e v e lo p e d . F u r t h e r , game th e o r y h a s t h e a d v a n ta g e o f e x p lo r i n g ja com plex p ro b le m i n a b r i e f p e r i o d o f sp ace an d tim e . R a th e r th a n a tt e m p t in g t o d u p l i c a t e th e w hole e x p e r ie n c e o f a d e b a te ro u n d , t h i s e x p e rim e n t c o n c e n t r a t e d on one f a c e t o f th e s u b j e c t 's d e c i s i o n p r o c e s s . Thus a s u b j e c t c o u ld make Jud g m en ts w i t h in an h o u r u n d e r c o n t r o l l e d c o n d i t i o n s t h a t m ig h t ta k e m onths o f r e a l l i f e to d u p l i c a t e . 1 1 F o r a d i s c u s s i o n o f some o f th e s e l i m i t a t i o n s se e R a p o p o rt, l o o , c i t . O f. a l s o A n a to 1 R a p o p o rt, F i g h t s , Games, and b'eba't’ e's' (Ann A rb o rj U n i v e r s i t y o f M ich ig an P r e s s , 1 9 b 0 J, an d Thomas C. S c h e l l i n g , The S t r a t e g y o f C o n f l i c t (New Y o rk : O xford U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 19fc>3)* 20 T h ir d j t h i s s tu d y e x te n d e d e x p e r im e n ta l I n v e s t i g a - j t i o n i n th e a r e a o f a r g u m e n ta tio n and d e h a t e . S in c e t h i s j a r e a h a s b e en n o te d m ore f o r t h e a b s e n c e o f e x p e r im e n ta l re-j s e a r c h th a n i t s p r e s e n c e , t h i s s tu d y can b e c o n s i d e r e d a s a c o n t r i b u t i o n w h ich u t i l i z e s a m a th e m a tic a l a p p ro a c h w hich i s p r o v in g i n c r e a s i n g l y u s e f u l i n a re aB a s w id e ly d iv e r g e n t i a s th e m i l i t a r y , econom ics* p o l i t i c a l s c i e n c e , l o g i c , and p s y c h o lo g y . 12 F o u r th , t h i s s tu d y p r o v id e d an i n s i g h t i n t o th e n a t u r e o f t h e r e l a t i v e v a lu e to c o l l e g e d e b a t e r s o f th e te rm s "n eed " an d " a d v a n ta g e ," an a r e a w hich h a s b e e n m arked by much c o n tr o v e r s y a s v a r i o u s a u t h o r s h av e d i s p u t e d th e i [ e x is te n c e and wisdom o f a d v a n ta g e c a s e s . 1^ i l 3 i ] ip C f. B a r t o s , l o c . c i t . T h is i s a t e x t w r i t t e n f o r th e t e a c h in g o f Markov m od els and game t h e o r y to g r a d u a te s t u d e n t s . M a rtin S h u b ik , e d . , Game T h eo ry and R e la te d Ap p r o a c h e s to S o c i a l B e h a v io r (New Y ork: John W iley & S ons, j lin e . , 1964) a l s o i s u s e f u l B ince i t r e p o r t s on some o f th e [ e x p e rim e n ta l useB o f game th e o r y and c o n t a i n s an a n n o ta te d [ b ib lio g r a p h y d e a l i n g w ith game t h e o r y . 1^ -’Jam es W, C h e se b ro , "The C o m p ara tiv e A d v a n ta g e s C a se , " J o u r n a l o f th e A m erican F o r e n s i c A s s o c i a t i o n , V {S p rin g , 1 9 6 0) , 5 7 -6 3 ; B e rn a rd B ro c k , "The C o m p ara tiv e Ad v a n ta g e s C a s e ," S peech T e a c h e r, XVI (M arch, 1 9 6 7 ) > 118-123; L. Dean F a d e ly , "The V a l i d i t y o f th e C o m p a ra tiv e A dvantages C a s e ," J o u r n a l o f t h e A m erican F o r e n s i c A s s o c i a t i o n , IV (W in te r, 196?)* 2 8 -3 5 j A r th u r N. K ru g e r, "The C o m p ara tiv e A d v a n tag e s C a se : A D is a d v a n ta g e ," J o u r n a l o f t h e A m erican F o r e n s ic A s s o c i a t i o n , I I I (S e p te m b e r, 1 9 6 6 ) , 1 0 4 -1 1 1 j R o b e rt !p. Newman, "The I n h e r e n t an d C o m p ellin g N e e d ," J o u r n a l o f t h e A m erican F o r e n s ic A s s o c i a t i o n , I I (May, 19657, 66- 7 1. 21 D e f i n i t i o n o f Terms S in c e many te rm s u s e d i n t h i s s tu d y h av e s p e c i a l m ea n in g s w h ic h m ig h t n o t h e r e c o g n iz e d im m e d ia te ly , th e iL. f o llo w in g d e f i n i t i o n s a r e o f f e r e d to im prov e c l a r i t y : Game T heory 1 b a m a th e m a tic a l m odel f o r th e s o l u - t i o n o f c o n f l i c t s i t u a t i o n s among p l a y e r s . A Game r e f e r s to t h e r u l e s and r e g u l a t i o n s t h a t g o v e rn th e p l a y i n g o f a p a r t i c u l a r s i t u a t i o n . W h eth er th e y a r e e x p l i c i t o r i m p l i c i t , th e s e r u l e s s e p a r a t e a game from any s i m i l a r gam es. Thus we m ig h t sp e a k o f th e game o f P r e s i d e n t i a l E l e c t i o n an d th e game o f C o n g r e s s io n a l E l e c t i o n ; o r we m ig h t c o n s i d e r t h e l a r g e r game o f N a t io n a l E l e c t i o n w h ich c o n t a i n s them b o t h . A P la y i s a s p e c i f i c a p p l i c a t i o n o f t h e r u l e s o f t h e game. Thus we can sp e a k o f t h r e e p r e s i d e n t i a l e l e c t i o n s a s t h r e e p l a y s o f th e game o f P r e s i d e n t i a l E l e c t i o n . |S i m i l a r l y t h r e e ro u n d s o f d e b a te i n a d e b a te to u rn a m e n t !c o u ld be c a l l e d t h r e e p l a y s o f th e game o f A cadem ic D e b a te . i P l a y e r s a r e an y i n d i v i d u a l s o r g ro u p o f i n d i v i d u a l s ( 1 , 2 , 3, . . . n ) who f a l l i n t o m u tu a lly e x c l u s i v e s e t s su ch 14 T hese d e f i n i t i o n s a r e a b s t r a c t e d from many so u rceB b u t p r im a ry c r e d i t b e lo n g s t o : Luce and R a i f f a , l o c . c i t .j J , C. 0. M cK insey, I n t r o d u c t i o n to th e T h eo ry of' Games' '(New Y ork: M cG raw -H ill, 1 9 5 2 ); an d J . D. W illia m s , The C om pleat S t r a t e g y s t : B ein g a P rim e r on t h e T h eory o f Games o f S t r a t eg y (New Y o rk : M cG raw -H ill, 1 9 5 4 ). W illia m s haB w r i t t e n a p o p u l a r i z e d p r e s e n t a t i o n o f game t h e o r y w hich i s v e r y u s e f u l f o r b e g in n e r s i n game t h e o r y who w ant to become f a m i l i a r w ith th e p r i n c i p l e s b u t n o t a l l t h e m a th e m a tic s . 22 t h a t th o s e w i t h i n any g iv e n s e t have i d e n t i c a l i n t e r e s t s . The num ber o f p e o p le who c o n s t i t u t e a " p l a y e r " I s n o t im p o r t a n t ; th e num ber o f p l a y e r s i n a game i s I m p o r ta n t. F o r | e x am p le, i t w ould be p o s s i b l e to have a team o f t e n i n d i v i d u a l s who made th e d e c i s i o n s f o r a game o f s o l i t a i r e . The game w ould be a tw o -p e rs o n game— th e i n d i v i d u a l s a c t i n g a s i one p e rs o n a g a i n s t n a t u r e o r c h a n c e . I n t h i s s tu d y e a c h s u b j e c t c o n s t i t u t e d a p l a y e r o r p e rs o n who p la y e d a g a i n s t t h e e x p e r im e n te r . Thus i t was a tw o -p e rs o n game. A Move i s an o c c a s io n when a p l a y e r may make a c h o ic e . The move i s n o t an a c t i o n b u t m e re ly th e o p p o r tu n i t y f o r a c t i o n . I n a d e b a te to u rn a m e n t when a team i s a s s i g n e d to a ro u n d i t i s g iv e n a move o r o c c a s io n w here i t c an make a c h o ic e . In t h i s e x p e rim e n t, e a c h s u b j e c t was g iv e n s i x t y - s i x m oves. Two w ere p r a c t i c e moves and s i x t y - f o u r moves w ere c o u n te d f o r e x p e r im e n ta l p u r p o s e s . A C h o ice i s th e a l t e r n a t i v e s e l e c t e d by any p l a y e r I ja t an y g iv e n move. When a d e b a te team d e c id e s to cho ose ith e A f f i r m a t iv e i n a d e b a te ro u n d o r p r e s e n t a c o m p a ra tiv e i a d v a n ta g e c a s e r a t h e r th a n a n e e d c a s e i t haB made a c h o ic e . I n t h i s s tu d y , e a c h s u b j e c t made s i x t y - s i x c h o i c e s — two f o r p r a c t i c e and s i x t y - f o u r f o r e x p e r im e n ta l p u r p o s e s . E ach s u b j e c t r e j e c t e d a s i m i l a r num ber o f c h o ic e s . Z ero-Sum Games a r e th o s e games w here th e g a in s and th e l o s s e s o f a l l p l a y e r s ad d up to z e r o . I n a s e n s e , th e game i s a c lo s e d sy ste m w here a l l th e r e s o u r c e s a r e d i v id e d 23 among t h e p l a y e r s a t th e c o m p le tio n o f th e p l a y o f th e game. I n t h i s e x p e rim e n t, o n ly th e g a i n s and th e l o s s e s o f th e s u b j e c t s a r e r e p o r t e d , b u t th e y a r e th e com plem ent o f th e l o s s e s a n d g a in s I n c u r r e d by t h e e x p e r im e n te r and t h u s sum to z e r o . N on-Zero-Sum Games a r e th o s e games w here th e g a in s | an d l o s s e s o f th e p l a y e r s do n o t add up to z e r o . I n t h i s ty p e o f game t h e r e I s some a d d i t i v e f a c t o r w hich p r e v e n t s i g a in B and l o s s e s from b e in g r e c i p r o c a l . The s i t u a t i o n I s more o f a b a r g a i n i n g th a n a s t r i c t l y c o m p e titiv e s i t u a t i o n . P e r f e c t I n f o r m a tio n r e f e r s t o t h e know ledge o f an o p p o n e n t's p a s t move o r moves and th e c h o ic e o r c h o ic e s m ade. I n t h i s s tu d y , t h e s u b j e c t s la c k e d p e r f e c t in f o r m a t i o n d u r in g th e p r a c t i c e m oves, b u t p o s s e s s e d p e r f e c t i n fo rm a tio n d u r in g a l l th e e x p e r im e n ta l m oves. C om plete I n f o r m a tio n r e f e r s to know ledge a b o u t th e q u a l i t y o f o n e 's o p p o n e n ts . F o r e x am p le, i f one knew o n e 's o p p o n e n t n o rm a lly ch o se a d v a n ta g e c a s e s t h a t w ould b e p e r f e c t i n f o r m a t i o n ; b u t i f one knew o n e 's o p p o n e n t h a d won l a s t y e a r 's N a t i o n a l D eb ate T ournam ent t h a t w ould be com p l e t e i n f o r m a t i o n . In t h i s s tu d y , th e s u b j e c t s d id n o t have c o m p le te I n f o r m a t i o n . R a t i o n a l means t h a t p la y e rB p r e f e r g r e a t e r re w a rd s to l e s s e r re w a rd s and t h e r e f o r e w i l l s e e k to m axim ize e x - p e c t e d u t i l i t y . ThiB I s a t a u t o l o g i c a l axiom o f game ________~^Luce an d R a i f f a , o p . c i t . , p p . 50-51*__________________ 24 ith e o ry w h ic h s t a t e s t h a t game t h e o r i s t s w i l l a c c e p t th e i ib e h a v lo r o f p l a y e r s a s an i n d i c a t i o n o f t h e i r p r e f e r e n c e s . i i jThose p r e f e r e n c e l e v e l s w hich a r e p r e d i c t e d b y th e e q u i l i b r iu m s t r a t e g i e s o f th e g iv e n game a r e c o n s id e r e d r a t i o n a l , j ' i P a y o f f s a r e r e w a rd s o r r e s u l t s t h a t p l a y e r s r e c e i v e j ias a c o n se q u e n c e o f th e p l a y o f th e game. They may b e p o s i t i v e o r n e g a t i v e . F o r e x am p le, a d e b a t e r may ch o o se to u s e weak l o g i c and th u s r e c e i v e a l o s s , a lth o u g h o t h e r ju d g e s Imight g i v e him a w in . I n t h i s s tu d y , s u b j e c t s w ere aw arded i -im a g in a ry ju d g e s a s a r e s u l t o f th e i n t e r s e c t i o n o f t h e i r f i |argum ent c h o ic e w ith th e e x p e r i m e n t e r 's arg u m en t c h o ic e . Argum ent was d e f i n e d o p e r a t i o n a l l y f o r th e p u rp o s e s jof t h i s s tu d y a s a s t r a t e g y w hich l e d to one o f two p o s s i b l e i jp a y o f fs . T h is d e f i n i t i o n d o es n o t d i f f e r s u b s t a n t i a l l y I from th e t r e a t m e n t g iv e n arg u m en t I n m ost te x tb o o k s d e a l i n g jw lth a rg u m e n ta tio n and d e b a t e . 1^ 1 O r g a n iz a tio n o f t h e R em ain d er o f th e S tu d y The re m a in d e r o f t h i s s tu d y i s o r g a n iz e d i n th e ;fo llo w In g m anner; C h a p te r I I d e a l s w ith th e Review o f t h e L i t e r a t u r e . ! C h a p te r I I I d e s c r i b e s th e T e c h n iq u e s and P r o c e d u r e s . C f. C h a p te r I I , A rg u m e n ta tio n T e x tb o o k s below f o r t e x t s e x am in ed by t h e I n v e s t i g a t o r . C h a p te r IV o f f e r s th e P r e s e n t a t i o n o f th e D a ta . C h a p te r V c o n t a i n s th e Summary, C o n c lu s io n s , and I m p l i c a t i o n s o f th e s t u d y . CHAPTER I I REVIEW OP THE LITERATURE | B i b l i o g r a p h i c a l S e a rc h ! r j | The e x p e r im e n te r b e g an h i s s e a r c h f o r p r i o r s t u d i e s j ! i 2 ! |o f t h i s p ro b lem b y e x am in in g Dunham and Harms, Knower, | Q iand Kruger-* f o r r e s e a r c h t h a t m ig h t be r e l e v a n t . B l b l i o g - t . |r a p h i e s o f r e c e n t r e s e a r c h w ere a l s o r e v ie w e d . t i i R o b e rt E. Dunham and L. S. Harm s, e d s ., In d e x and iT a b le o f C o n te n ts o f S o u th e rn S peech J o u r n a l , l'9 3 5 -1 9 6 0 j 11 9 4 9 -1 9 6 0 * and T o d a y 's S p e e ch , 1953-1960 ( C e n t r a l S ta te 's [Speech A s s o c i a t i o n , S peech A s s o c ia t io n o f t h e E a s te r n |S t a t e s , and S o u th e rn S peech A s s o c i a t i o n , 1 9 6 2 ) . 2 i F r a n k l in H. Knower, e d . , T a b le o f C o n te n ts o f th e | Q u a r te r l y J o u r n a l o f S p e e ch , 1915^1984, S peech M onographs, : 1 9 3 4 -1 9 8 4 , and The"'Speech T e a c h e r, 1952-1964 (New Y ork; i Speech A s s o c ia t io n o f A m erica, 1 9 6 5) . ^ A rth u r N. K ru g e r, e d . , A C l a s s i f i e d B i b lio g r a p h y o f iA rg u m e n ta tio n and D ebate (M etuchen, N . J . : S c a re cro w P r e s s , 11954) . 4 j Ned A. S h e a re r an d F r e d e r i c k W. H aberm an, e d s . , "A ^ B ib lio g ra p h y o f R h e to r ic and P u b lic A d d re ss f o r th e Y e a r I1 9 6 6, " Speech M onographs, XXXIV (A u g u st, 1 9 6 7) j 187 -220; N, A. S h e a r e r and F. W. H aberm an, e d s . , "A B ib lio g r a p h y o f R h e to r ic and P u b lic A d d re ss f o r th e Y e a r 1 9 6 5 / ' Speech M onographs, XXXIII (A u g u st, 1 9 6 6) , 1 8 7 -2 2 2 ; Jam es W. C le a r y and N. A. S h e a r e r , e d s . , "A B i b li o g r a p h y o f R h e to r i c and P u b lic A d d re ss f o r th e Y e a r 1 9 6 4 ," S peech M onographs, XXXII j(A uguB t, 1 9 6 5 ), 2 1 7 -2 5 2 . t I 27 c 6 A b s t r a c t s o f r e s e a r c h s t u d i e s , i n d i c e s o f t h e s e s , an d l i s t s o f work i n p ro g re s s '^ f o r th e p e r i o d 1964-1966 w ere r e v ie w e d . The l i s t o f d i s s e r t a t i o n s c o m p le te d i n th e ; o p e r i o d 1964-1968 was ex am in ed . B i b l i o g r a p h i c a l l i s t s w ere exam ined to s a f e g u a r d a g a i n s t o v e rlo o k in g any s o u r c e s o f q r e l e v a n t r e s e a r c h . j The r e s e a r c h e r a l s o c h ec k ed th e c o n t e n t s o f th e j J o u r n a l o f C om m unication, th e J o u r n a l o f th e A m erican F o- ^Max N e lso n , e d . , " A b s tr a c t s o f D i s s e r t a t i o n s i n th e F i e l d o f S p eech , 1 9 6 6, " S peech M onographs, XXXIV (A u g u st, 1 9 6 7 ) j 2 2 1 -3 2 0 ; Max NelsorTT e d . , " A b s tr a c ts o f D i s s e r t a t i o n s i n t h e F i e l d o f S p eech , 1 9 6 5*" S peech M onographs, XXXIII (A u g u st, 1 9 6 6 ) , 22 3- 3 0 6 ; C lyde W. Dow, edT, 1,Ab- s t r a c t s o f T h e se s i n t h e F i e l d o f S p eech , XX," S peech Mono- g r a p h s , XXXII (A u g u st, 1 9 6 5) , 2 5 3 -3 3 5 . g F r a n k l in H. Knower, e d . , "G ra d u a te T h e s e s : An In d e x o f G ra d u a te Work I n S p eech , XXXIV," S peech M onographs, XXXIV (A u g u st, 1 9 6 7 ), 3 2 1 -3 7 6 ; F. H. Knower, edT, ^ G ra d u a te T h e s e s : An In d e x o f G ra d u a te Work i n S p e e ch , X X X III," S peech M onographs, XXXIII (A u g u st, 1 9 6 6 ) , 3 0 7 -3 5 5 i F . H. Knower, e d . 7 ''G ra d u a te T h e s e s : An In d e x o f G ra d u a te Work i n S p eech , X X X II," S peech M onographs, XXXII (A u g u st, 1 9 6 5) , 3 3 6 -3 8 4 . ^ J . J e f f r e y A uer and M. E. P I c ' l , e d s . , " D o c to ra l D i s s e r t a t i o n s i n S p e e c h : Work i n P r o g r e s s , 1 9 6 7 ," Speech M onographs, XXXIV (A u g u st, 1 9 6 7 ) , 3 7 7 -3 8 3 S J* J - A u er, e d . , '" D o c to ra l D i s s e r t a t i o n s i n S p eech : Work I n P r o g r e s s , 1 9 6 6, " S peech M onographs, XXXIII (A u g u st, 1 9 6 6) , 3 5 6- 3 6 3 ; J . J . A u er, e d . , ^ D o c to r a l D i s s e r t a t i o n s i n S p eech : Work i n P ro g r e s s , 1 9 6 5 , " S peech M onographs, XXXII (A u g u st, 1 9 6 5) , 3 8 5- 392. Q D i s s e r t a t i o n A b s t r a c t s : A G uide to D i s s e r t a t i o n s an d M onograph b TAnn A rb o r: tT n iv e r s ity M ic r o f ilm s . I n c . ) . Q ^OBcar G. B r o c k e t t , Sam uel L. B e c k e r, and D onald C. Ir e n s i c A s s o c i a t i o n , an d th e J o u r n a l o f C o n f l i c t R e s o lu tio n [fo r th e 1964-1968 p e r i o d . I F i n a l l y , t h e r e s e a r c h e r r e a d B e r e ls o n and S t e i n e r , 10 ■ 11 |and Thompson. E ach b i b l i o g r a p h i c a l ite m t h a t seemed to b e a r on {the p ro b le m o f arg u m en t s e l e c t i o n o r t h e g e n e r a l a r e a o f [a rg u m e n ta tio n and d e b a te was r e c o r d e d and ex am in ed . | C u r r e n t S t a t e o f R e s e a rc h j The c u r r e n t s t a t e o f q u a n t i t a t i v e r e s e a r c h i n a r g u - I [m e n ta tio n and d e b a te w as d e s c r i b e d by Thompson i n th e f o l - | [lowing te rm s : | P e rh a p s no p o t e n t i a l l y m a jo r a r e a f o r q u a n t i t a t i v e j s t u d y i n th e sp e e c h f i e l d h a s p ro d u c e d r e s e a r c h so b a n a l and p r o v i n c i a l a s h a s d e b a t e . Most o f th e s t u d i e s hav e d e a l t w i t h i n t e r c o l l e g i a t e c o m p e titio n and th e j p r i n c i p a l s e c o n d a ry i n t e r e s t h a s b e e n th e e f f e c t s and ! t h e v a l u e s . T hese i n v e s t i g a t i o n s , a lth o u g h o f c o n s id - | e r a b l e i n t e r e s t t o s t u d e n t d e b a t e r s and c o a c h e s , do n o t j i l l u m i n a t e g e n e r a l p s y c h o l o g ic a l o r r h e t o r i c a l i s s u e s . I n d i c a t i v e o f t h e b a r r e n n e s s o f q u a n t i t a t i v e r e s e a r c h i i s t h e la c k o f s y n t h e s i z i n g p a p e r s . ^ 1 A n d ersen 'r e p o r t e d t h a t l i t t l e q u a n t i t a t i v e r e s e a r c h [B ryant, A B i b l i o g r a p h i c a l G uide to R e s e a rc h i n S peech and [D ram atic A rt (C hicago': S c o t t ," F ore Bman, and Company, 1 9 6 3) . { in j B e r n a rd B e r e ls o n and G ary S t e i n e r , Human B e h a v io r : [An I n v e n t o r y o f S c i e n t i f i c F in d in g s (New Y ork: H a r c o u r t, [B race, an d w o rld , I n c . , 1964'). | ^^Wayne N. Thompson, Q u a n t i t a t i v e R e s e a rc h i n P u b lic [A ddress an d C om m unication {N e w Y o rk : Random !House, 19670 . 12I b ld ., p* 109. 29 1 " 3 w as d i r e c t l y r e l a t e d t o t h e p ro b le m s o f a r g u m e n ta t io n . ^ J u d g e s ' E v a l u a t i o n s o f A rgu m en ts S e v e r a l s t u d i e s h a v e a n a ly z e d t h e m anner I n w h ic h Ju d g e s e v a l u a t e a rg u m e n ts . G i f f i n fo u n d t h a t c a s e , e v i d e n ce a n d a n a l y s i s a lo n g w i t h r e f u t a t i o n an d d e l i v e r y a c - 14 c o u n te d f o r e i g h t y - t h r e e p e r c e n t o f J u d g in g c r i t e r i a . ; G i f f i n a n d M e g ill fo u n d n e e d , w o r k a b i l i t y , s o l u t i o n , an d | IK d i s a d v a n t a g e s w e re r a n k e d b y Ju d g e d I n t h a t o r d e r . The j r e c o g n i t i o n o f t h e g e n e r a l im p o r ta n c e o f a rg u m e n t a n d th e J s p e c i f i c I m p o rta n c e o f t h e n e e d I s s u e was f u r t h e r s u p p o r t e d b y R o e v e r an d G i f f i n ^ ’ an d G i f f i n an d M e g i l l . ^ M cCroskey an d Camp d e m o n s tr a te d t h a t n e e d i s th e l 8 m o s t i m p o r t a n t i s s u e t o j u d g e s . A f o l lo w - u p s t u d y s u p - 1 i ■ 1 - ■ — 1 ! ■ ^K enneth E , A nderB en, " Q u a n t i t a t i v e R e s e a r c h i n De b a t e , " J o u r n a l o f t h e A m erican F o r e n s i c A s s o c i a t i o n , I I I ( S e p te m b e r, 1 9 6 6 ), 1 1 2 -1 1 5 . P a u l J .’ Dovre", " H i s t o r i c a l - C r i t i c a l R e s e a r c h i n D e b a te ," J o u r n a l o f t h e A m erican F o re n s i c A s s o c i a t i o n , I I (May, 1 9 6 5 ) j 7 2 -7 9 r e v ie w e d n o n - q u a n t i - t a t i v e s t u d i e s - I n d e b a t e . ^ K im G i f f i n , "A S tu d y o f t h e C r i t e r i a E m ployed by T o u rn am en t D e b a te J u d g e s ," S p eech M ono grap hs, XXVI (M arch, 1 9 5 9 ), 6 9 - T l . ■^Klm G i f f i n a n d K e n n e th M e g i l l , " S to c k I s s u e s i n T o u rn am en t D e b a t e s ," C e n t r a l S t a t e s S p eech J o u r n a l , X I I (A utum n, i 9 6 0 ) , 2 7 -3 2 . * | ^ Jam es E . R o e v e r a n d Kim G i f f i n , "A S tu d y o f t h e Use o f J u d g in g C r i t e r i a I n T o u rn am en t D e b a t e , " APA R e g i s t e r , V I I I ( W in te r , i 9 6 0 ) , 1 3 . ^ K im G i f f i n a n d K e n n e th M e g i l l , "A S tu d y o f C ase Con s t r u c t i o n i n T o u rn am en t D e b a t e s ," W e s te rn S p e e c h . XXVI ( W in te r , 1 9 6 2 ) , 5 3 - 5 ^ . 1 8 Jam es C. McCroBkey. an d Leon R. Camp, "A S tu d y o f 30 p o r t e d th e p o i n t and a d d e d e v id e n c e t h a t t h e j u d g e s 1 r a n k - o r d e r c r i t e r i a p u t s c a s e o r th e s e l e c t i o n o f a rg u m e n ts i q j f i r s t . * W illia m s a n d Webb fo u n d a rg u m e n t t o be o n e o f j 20 f o u r m a jo r a r e a s o f ju d g in g c r i t e r i a . A f u r t h e r s t u d y , b y W il l ia m s , C la r k , an d Wood, fo u n d a rg u m e n t t o b e a m a jo r a r e a , b u t a l s o fo u n d t h a t ju d g e s made few d i s t i n c t i o n s 21 ! among te r m s su c h a s r e a s o n i n g , a n a l y s i s , l o g i c , e t c . I n ; sum m ary, a l l o f th e above s t u d i e s d e m o n s tr a te d t h a t ju d g e s c o n s i d e r e d a rg u m e n t t o b e i m p o r t a n t , a n d n e ed a rg u m e n ts o r c a s e s t o be t h e m ost i m p o r t a n t m ethod o f e x p r e s s i n g t h o s e a r g u m e n ts . ! ( i D e b a t e r s 1 E v a l u a t i o n s o f A rg um ents O nly a few s t u d i e s h a v e c o n s i d e r e d why o r how d e b a t e r s s e l e c t a rg u m e n ts . K e e le e x a m in e d t h e a b i l i t y o f f o r t y d e b a t e r s to i d e n t i f y t h e e le m e n ts o f t h e i r a rg u m e n ts |u s i n g t h e a n a l y s i s d e v e lo p e d b y t h e E n g l i s h l o g i c i a n S t e - S to c k I s s u e s , J u d g in g C r i t e r i a , and D e c i s i o n s i n D e b a t e , ” S o u th e r n S p e e c h J o u r n a l , XXX ( W in te r , 1 9 6 4 ), 1 5 8 -1 6 8 . "^ Ja m e s C. M cCroskey an d Leon R. Camp, " J u d g in g C r i t e r i a and J u d g e s ' B ia s i n D e b a te ," J o u r n a l o f t h e A m erican F o r e n s i c A s s o c i a t i o n , I I I (May, 196b ) , 5 9 -b 2 . 20 F r e d e r i c k W illia m s a n d S a l l y Ann Webb, " F a c t o r s I n D e b a te E v a l u a t i o n : A P i l o t S tu d y ," C e n t r a l S t a t e s S p e e ch J o u r n a l , XV (May, 1 9 6 4 ), 1 2 6 -1 2 8 . 21 F r e d e r i c k W il l ia m s , R u th Anne C l a r k , a n d B a r b a r a S. Wood, " S t u d i e s i n th e D i m e n s i o n a l i t y o f D e b a te E v a l u a t i o n , " J o u r n a l o f t h e A m erican F o r e n s i c A s s o c i a t i o n , I I I (S e p te m - b e r , 1 9bb)V 9 5 -1 0 3 . ' 31 22 phen T oulm in. She c o n c lu d e d t h a t d e b a t e r s do n o t a n a ly z e th e s t r u c t u r e o f a rg u m e n ts b e f o r e p r e s e n t i n g them an d t h a t t d e b a t e r s a r e u n a b le to i d e n t i f y w hich e le m e n t o f t h e i r a r gum ents h a d b een c h a lle n g e d b y t h e i r o p p o n e n ts . T hese r e s u l t s a r e s u b j e c t to th e q u e s t i o n o f t h e a p p l i c a b i l i t y o f th e T oulm in a n a l y s i s and t h e a ssu m p tio n t h a t th e s u b j e c t s I u n d e rs to o d th e m eaning o f t h e Toulm in te r m s . F a u l t s d e v e lo p e d a t e s t to m easure r e f u t a t i o n a b l l i - i 2^ t y . He fo u n d t h a t i n t e r c o l l e g i a t e d e b a t e r s do s i g n i f i c a n t l y b e t t e r th a n a r g u m e n ta tio n s t u d e n t s i n t a k i n g th e exam, an d i n p r o d u c in g a rg u m e n ts o f q u a l i t y and q u a n t i t y . V e r d e r b e r c o n d u c te d a to u rn a m e n t w here t h e ju d g e s were a s k e d to in f o r m th e d e b a t e r s b e f o r e th e ro u n d how much e v id e n c e w ould be n e e d e d , w h at was n e c e s s a r y to e a r n m ax i mum p o i n t s i n a n a l y s i s , i f t h e d e b a t e r s h o u ld be s e l e c t i v e i n th e num ber o f a rg u m e n ts p r e s e n t e d , and o t h e r r e l a t e d Ojl i te m s . The r e s u l t s i n d i c a t e d t h a t s i x t y - s e v e n p e r c e n t o f th e d e b a t e r s f e l t t h a t t h e i r d e b a tin g was a f f e c t e d b y th e R eba L. K e e le , "A S tu d y to D e term in e th e A b i l i t y o f D e b a te rs to I d e n t i f y th e E le m e n ts o f A rgum ent" ( u n p u b lis h e d M a s t e r 's t h e s i s , B righam Young U n i v e r s i t y , 1 9 6 6) . C f. S te p h e n T oulm in, The U ses o f Argum ent (L ondon: C am bridge U n i v e r s i t y PreBB, 1 9 5 8 ). 2 ^Don F a u l e s , "M easu rin g R e f u t a t i o n S k i l l : An E x p lo r a t o r y S tu d y ," J o u r n a l o f t h e A m erican F o r e n s ic A s s o c i a t i o n , iv (spring, 1 w r r n v n fr - pjl R udolph V e r d e r b e r , " J u d g e s ' C r i t e r i a an d D e b a te r A d a p ta tio n : E m p i r i c a l E v id e n c e ," J o u r n a l o f th e A m erican F o r e n s ic A s s o c i a t i o n , V (W in te r, 1 9 6 8 ), 2 8 -3 0 . 32 j u d g e s ' o p e n in g re m a rk s . I f t h e r e s u l t s w ere v a l i d , i t w ould Beem t o i n d i c a t e t h a t d e b a t e r s a d a p t t h e i r a rg u m e n ts I to t h e to u rn a m e n t j u d g e s ' dem ands. I Sw inney s u g g e s te d t h a t d e b a t e r s may o v e r - a d a p t to to u rn a m e n t d e b a te ju d g e s , a t l e a s t I n te rm s o f la n g u a g e and s t y l e . ^ i K ing an d C le v e n g e r foun d t h a t p a r t i c i p a t i n g d e b a t - i e r s w ould h a v e ju d g e d th e m s e lv e s d i f f e r e n t l y th a n t o u r n a - 26 m ent d e b a te ju d g e s a c t u a l l y d id Ju d g e them . Murphy and H e n s le y i n d i c a t e d t h a t h ig h s c h o o l d e b a t e r s c o u ld n o t p r e d i c t w h e th e r th e y w ere w in n in g o r l o s i n g . 2"^ W elden a ls o s t u d i e d a g ro u p o f h i g h s c h o o l d e b a t e r s and c o n c lu d e d t h a t t h e i r a t t i t u d e s te n d t o s h i f t to t h e s id e on w h ich th e y op h av e b e e n s u c c e s s f u l . I n summary, n o t much i s known a b o u t th e p r o c e s s by w h ich d e b a t e r s s e l e c t a rg u m e n ts . How ever, i t i s p o s s i b l e t h a t d e b a t e r s do n o t f o llo w a fo rm a l p r o c e s s o f arg u m en t 2^Jam es P. Sw inney, "The R e l a t i v e C om prehension o f C o n tem p o rary T ournam ent D ebate S p e e c h e s ," J o u r n a l o f th e A m erican F o r e n s ic A s s o c i a t i o n , V (W in te r, 196 b ) , 1 6 -2 0 .' 26 Thomas R. King an d T heod ore C le v e n g e r, J r . , "A Com p a r i s o n o f D e b ate R e s u ltB O b ta in e d by P a r t i c i p a n t and C r i t i c J u d g i n g ," S o u th e rn S peech J o u r n a l , XXV ( S p r in g , i 9 6 0 ) , 2 2 3 - 232. 2^ J a c k W. Murphy an d Wayne E. H e n s le y , "Do D e b a te rs Know When They Win o r L o se ? " S peech T e a c h e r, XV (M arch, 1 9 6 6 ), 1 4 5 -1 4 7 . ----------------------- 28 T e r r y A, W elden, "A C o n g r u ity P r e d i c t i o n o f A t t i tu d e Change from D e b ate W ln-L oss R e c o r d ," J o u r n a l o f th e A m erican P o re n B ic A s s o c i a t i o n , I I I (May, 195b}, 4 8 -5 2 . 33 s e l e c t i o n a n d a r e a d a p t i v e to t h e i r m ost f a m i l i a r ty p e o f a u d ie n c e — t h e to u rn a m e n t d e b a te ju d g e . R e l a t e d S t u d i e s The r e s e a r c h e r fo u n d some s tu d le B w h ich a p p e a re d to h a v e an i n d i r e c t b e a r i n g on th e p ro b le m o f t h i s s tu d y . "W hittaker c o n c lu d e d t h a t p o l i t i c a l m o d e ra te s te n d to a c c e p t a w ide ra n g e o f a rg u m e n ts , b u t e x t r e m i s t s r e j e c t 29 a w ide r a n g e o f a rg u m e n ts . ^ J o n e s fo u n d t h a t th e i n v e s t i g a t i o n p r o c e s s i n a s i t u a t i o n o f low p a r t i c i p a t i o n c h o ic e a n d h ig h j u s t i f i c a t i o n c o u ld r e s u l t i n th e p a r t i c i p a n t 30 c h a n g in g a t t i t u d e s . A num ber o f s t u d i e s have i n d i c a t e d t h a t d e b a te may im p ro v e d e b a t e r s ’ c r i t i c a l t h i n k i n g a b i l i t y ^ and t h a t d e - 29 jam es o. W h it t a k e r , " P e r c e p tio n an d Judgm ent i n th e P o l i t i c a l E x t r e m i s t , " J o u r n a l o f C om m unication, XVII (J u n e , 1 9 6 7 ). 1 3 6 -1 4 1 . ^ S t a n l e y E . J o n e s , " A t t i t u d e C hanges o f P u b lic S peak e r s D u rin g th e I n v e s t i g a t i v e and E x p r e s s iv e S ta g e s o f Advo- jc a c y ," S peech M onographs, XXXIII ( J u n e , 1 9 6 6) , 1 3 7 -1 4 6 . ^ T e d R, J a c k s o n , "The E f f e c t s o f I n t e r c o l l e g i a t e De b a t i n g on C r i t i c a l T h in k in g A b i l i t y " (u n p u b lis h e d Ph.D . d i s s e r t a t i o n , U n i v e r s i t y o f W is c o n s in , 1 9 6 1); E . R. Tame, "An A n a l y t i c a l S tu d y o f th e R e l a t i o n s h i p s b etw een A b i l i t y i n C r i t i c a l T h in k in g an d A b i l i t y i n C o n te s t D eb ate and D is c u s s i o n " ( u n p u b lis h e d Ph.D . d i s s e r t a t i o n , U n i v e r s i t y o f D e n v er, 1 9 5 8 ); V ernon E. Beckman, "An I n v e s t i g a t i o n an d A n a ly s is o f t h e C o n t r i b u t i o n s t o C r i t i c a l T h in k in g Made by C o u rse s i n A rg u m e n ta tio n an d D i s c u s s io n i n S e l e c t e d C o lle g e s " (unpu b l i s h e d Ph.D . d i s s e r t a t i o n , U n i v e r s i t y o f M in n e s o ta , 1 9 5 6) ; D on ald E . W illia m s , "The E f f e c t s o f T r a i n in g i n C o lle g e De b a t i n g on C r i t i c a l T h in k in g A b i l i t y " ( u n p u b lis h e d M a s t e r ’s t h e s i s , P urdue U n i v e r s i t y , 1 9 5 1 )j W InBton L. B rem beck, "The E f f e c t s o f a C o urse i n A rg u m e n ta tio n on C r i t i c a l T h in k in g 34 b a t e r s h a v e a s u p e r i o r a b i l i t y I n p r o b le m - s o lv in g s i t u a t i o n s .^ 2 B a u e r a n d C o lb u rn s u g g e s t t h a t d e b a t e r s a n d c o a c h e s ; i p r e f e r t o have two ju d g e s s a y t h e i r team won o r l o s t , even •S 'S th o u g h t h i s g i v e s e a c h team some b e n e f i t from th e ro u n d . B a u er an d C o lb urn o f f e r no q u a n t i t a t i v e e v id e n c e f o r t h i s . i Graham s u g g e s te d t h a t d e b a t e r s s e l e c t a rg u m e n ts i n ^ 4 1 ways w h ic h re d u c e t h e d e g re e o f e x p o s u re to a t t a c k . Gow a p p a r e n t l y c o n c u r r e d when he w arned o f th e p o s s i b i l i t y o f e n c o u ra g in g d e b a t e r s i n t h e d e v e lo p m e n t o f " t r o p h y - o r i e n te d " a r g u m e n t s . - ^ N e i th e r Graham n o r Gow o f f e r e d any q u a n t i t a t i v e e v id e n c e f o r t h e i r p o s i t i o n s . ■Ragsdale fo u n d t h a t s u b j e c t s com prehended e q u a l l y b r i e f an d d i f f u s e s t a t e m e n t s , b u t t h e y ch an g ed t h e i r a t t i - A b l l i t y , " S peech M on ographs, XVI (1949)* 177-189* W illia m S. H o w ell, 'The E f f e c t s o f H igh S c h o o l D e b a tin g on C r i t i c a l T h in k in g ," S peech M onographs, X (1 9 4 3 ), 9 6 -1 0 3 . ^ S j l l l i a m T. M aynard, "A S tu d y o f th e R e l a t i o n o f T ournam ent D e b a tin g E x p e r ie n c e to A cadem ic A chievem en t i n Law S c h o o l" ( u n p u b lis h e d M a s t e r 's t h e B i s , U n i v e r s i t y o f K ansas, I 9 6 0 ) ; A n n e tte M. M ulvany, "An I n v e s t i g a t i o n o f th e L o g ic a l R e a so n in g A b i l i t y o f S tu d e n ts A tte n d in g t h e 1963 N a tio n a l C o n v e n tio n o f P i Kappa D e l ta " ( u n p u b lis h e d M a s te r 's t h e s i s , S o u th e rn I l l i n o i s U n i v e r s i t y , 1 § 6 4 ) . ^ O t t o B a u e r an d C. W. C o lb u rn , "The M a v e ric k J u d g e ," J o u r n a l o f th e A m erican F o r e n s ic A s s o c i a t i o n , I I I ( J a n u - a r y , 1 9 8 b ), 24. oil 0 Jo h n Graham , "D angers i n D e b a te ," J o u r n a l o f th e A m erican F o r e n s ic A s s o c i a t i o n , I I (S e p te m b e r, 1 9 b 5 ) , 9 4 -1 0 3 . ■ ^John E, Gow, "T ournam ent D e b a tin g : A Time f o r C hangeB ," J o u r n a l o f th e A m erican F o r e n s ic A s s o c i a t i o n , IV ( F a l l , 1 9 6 7 ) , 1 0 7 -1 1 1 . 35 t u d e s s i g n i f i c a n t l y m ore i n t h e d i r e c t i o n o f t h e b r i e f s t a t e m e n t s a n d p r e f e r r e d s i g n i f i c a n t l y t h e s t y l e o f b r i e f s t a t e m e n t s . ^ Newman r e v ie w e d t h e c l a s s i c a l t h e o r i e s o f i n v e n t i o n a n d t h e m odern w r i t e r s on a r g u m e n t a t i o n a n d c o n c lu d e d t h a t c u r r e n t t r e a t m e n t s o f s t o c k i s s u e s a r e m e c h a n i c a l , p r o c e d u - -37 r a l f o r m u l a s . The r e s e a r c h e r a l s o fo u n d a s t r o n g d i s p u t e i n t h e l i t e r a t u r e a s t o w h e th e r t h e r e i s a n y d i f f e r e n c e b e tw e e n n e e d a n d c o m p a r a t i v e a d v a n ta g e a r g u m e n t s . N o n e o f t h e s e s t u d i e s o f f e r e d a n y q u a n t i t a t i v e s u p p o r t f o r a d i f f e r e n c e o r l a c k o f d i f f e r e n c e . The r e s e a r c h e r fo u n d no s t u d i e s w here s u b j e c t s w e re e x p l i c i t l y a s k e d w h e th e r t h e y p r e f e r r e d n e e d o r a d v a n ta g e c a s e s o r a r g u m e n ts . A r g u m e n ta tio n T e x tb o o k s The r e s e a r c h e r e x a m in e d t h i r t e e n w i d e l y u s e d a r g u m e n t a t i o n a n d d e b a t e t e x t b o o k s t o d e te r m i n e w h a t a d v i c e i s ■aq a v a i l a b l e t o s t u d e n t s a n d t e a c h e r s o f a r g u m e n t a t i o n . A l- 2 Ja m es D. R a g s d a le , J r . , " E f f e c t s o f S e l e c t e d A s p e c ts o f B r e v i t y on C o m p r e h e n s i b i l i t y a n d P e r s u a s i v e n e s s (u n p u b l i s h e d P h .D . d i s s e r t a t i o n , U n i v e r s i t y o f I l l i n o i s , 1 9 6 4 ) . 07 R o b e r t P . Newman, " A n a l y s i s a n d I s s u e s j —A S tu d y o f D o c t r i n e , " C e n t r a l S t a t e s S p e e c h J o u r n a l , X I I I (A utum n, 1 9 6 1 ), 43-54": OQ C h e s e b ro , l o c . c i t . ; B r o c k , l o c . c i t . ; F a d e l y , l o c . c i t . j K r u g e r , l o c . c i t . ; Newman, l o c . c i t . J J A. C r a ig B a i r d , A r g u m e n ta tio n , D r s c u s s i o n , a n d D e b a t e (New Y o rk t M c G ra w -H ill. 1 9 5 0 ) : O tto F . B a u e r . F u n d a - 36 th o u g h i t I s d i f f i c u l t to g e n e r a l i z e from so many s o u r c e s , th e f o llo w in g c o n c l u s i o n s a p p e a r r e a s o n a b l e : 1. S ix o f t h e t e x t s r e c o g n i z e th e a d v a n ta g e a p p ro a c h and a p p e a r w i l l i n g to a c c e p t i t ; one t e x t r e c o g n i z e s t h e a p p ro a c h b u t i s o p p o se d to c o n s i d e r i n g i t d i s t i n c t from th e n e e d a p p ro a c h . The o t h e r se v e n t e x t s do n o t m en tio n i th e a d v a n ta g e a p p ro a c h . I 2 . A l l t e x t s recommend some a d a p t a t i o n to a u d ie n c e ! m o t i v a t i o n . How ever, th e e x t e n t o f c o v e ra g e v a r i e s from a p a ra g r a p h to s e v e r a l c h a p t e r s . 3 . A ll t e x t s g iv e a t t e n t i o n to th e d e v e lo p m e n t o f a rg u m e n ts a c c o rd in g to l o g i c a l p r o c e d u r e s , b u t o n ly f i v e c o n s i d e r t h e T oulm in sy ste m . m e n ta ls o f D e b ate : T h e o ry and P r a c t i c e (C h ic a g o : S c o t t , Foresm an an d C o ., ISfcfeJj Glenn R. and Thelm a Capp, P r i n c i p l e s o f A rg u m e n ta tio n an d D ebate (E nglew ood C l i f f s , New J e r - sey':' P re n tle 'e -!H a ll,' I n c . , 19&5J; D o u g las E h n in g e r an d Wayne B r o c k r e id e , D e c is io n b y D ebate (New Y ork: Dodd, Mead and C o ., 1 9 6 3) ; A u s tin J . F r e e l e y , A rg u m e n ta tio n and D eb ate (2nd e d . ; B e lm o n t, C a l i f ..: W adsw orth P u b lis h in g C o ., 1 9 6 6) j R o b e rt B. H u b er, I n f l u e n c i n g th r o u g h Argum ent (New Y ork: D av id McKay Co.., 19^3) j A r th u r N. K ru g e r,' Modern D e b a te : I t s L o g ic and S t r a t e g y (New Y ork: M cG raw -H ill, 1 9 b 0 ); Jam es H. M cBath, e d . , A rg u m e n ta tio n and D e b a te : P r i n c i p l e s and P r a c t i c e s ( r e v . e d . ; New Y ork: H o l t , R i n e h a r t and W in sto n , I n c . , 1 9 6 3 ) ; Jam es H. McBurney an d G len E . M i l l s , Argumen t a t i o n an d D e b a te : T e c h n iq u e s o f a F r e e S o c i e t y (2nd e d . ; New Y o rk : M acm illan Company, 1 9 b 4 ); G e ra ld R'.' M i l l e r and Thomas R. N i l s e n , e d s . . P e r s p e c t i v e s on A rg u m e n ta tio n (C h ic a g o : S c o t t , Foresm an and Company, 196by;' G len E . M i l l s , R eason i n C o n tr o v e rs y (B o sto n : A lly n an d B acon, I n c . , 1 9 6 4 ); Eugene R. M ou lto n , The Dynam ics o f D eb ate (New Y o rk : H a r- c o u r t , B ra c e and W o rld , I n c . , 19bb}; R u s s e l R. W indes an d A r th u r H a s t i n g s , A rg u m e n ta tio n an d A dvocacy (New Y ork: Random H ouse, May, 19bb ) . ___________ 37 M a th e m a tic a l M odels A few w r i t e r s h a v e made s u g g e s t i o n s f o r t h e g r e a t e r u s e o f m a th e m a tic a l m o d els i n sp e e c h r e s e a r c h a n d some h a v e a c t u a l l y u t i l i z e d su c h m o d els f o r e x p e r i m e n t a l p u r p o s e s . S m ith p r o p o s e d t h a t s p e e c h r e s e a r c h s h o u ld u s e t o o l s su c h a s s e t t h e o r y , s t o c h a s t i c p r o c e s s e s , p r o b a b i l i t y , a n d 4 0 1 m a t r i x a l g e b r a . H o ld e r a n d E h lln g d e v e lo p e d a M arkov m o d el f o r i n - i i f o r m a t io n - d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g a n d c o n c lu d e d t h a t t h e e a r l i e r a d e c i s i o n - m a k e r e n c o u n t e r s i n p u t w h ic h r e i n f o r c e s an a l t e r n a t i v e , t h e m ore im p a c t t h i s i n p u t w i l l h a v e on t h e d e c i s i o n p r o c e s s . They a l s o c o n c lu d e d t h a t t h e m ore c e r t a i n t y t h e d e c i s i o n - m a k e r p o s s e s s e s a b o u t h i s d e c i s i o n , t h e m ore c o n f i d e n c e he h a s a n d t h e r e f o r e t h e m ore r e s i s t a n t h e i s to c h a n g e . The c o n v e r s e i s a l s o t r u e . C a n g e l o s i , R o b in s o n , a n d S ch kad e a l s o d e v e lo p e d an i i o i n f o r m a t i o n - d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g m o d e l. They c o n c lu d e d t h a t s u b j e c t s who w ere g iv e n i n f o r m a t i o n b e h a v e d m ore r a t i o n a l l y th a n t h o s e who w e re n o t g iv e n i n f o r m a t i o n , b u t t h a t t h e r e ^°Raym ond G. S m ith , " R h e t o r i c , E x p e r i m e n t a l R e s e a r c h , an d Men o f Good W i-ll," S o u th e r n S p e e ch J o u r n a l , XXX, No. 1 ( P a l l , 1 9 6 4 ) , 8 - 1 4 . ^ H a r o l d D. H o ld e r a n d W illia m P . E h l i n g , " C o n s tr u c t i o n a n d S im u la tio n o f an I n f o r m a t i o n - D e e i s i o n M o d e l," J o u r n a l o f C o m m u n icatio n , XV II (D ecem ber, 1 9 6 7 ) , 3 0 2- 3 1 5 . ^ ^ V in c e n t E . C a n g e l o s i , D. M. R o b in s o n , a n d L . L . S c h k a d e , " I n f o r m a t io n an d R a t i o n a l C h o ic e ," J o u r n a l o f C o m m u n icatio n , X V III ( J u n e , 1 9 6 8 ) , 131-143* 38 was a boom arang e f f e c t c a u s e d b y p r o v i d i n g a s e c o n d -m e s s a g e . H ow ever, s i n c e t h e e x p e r im e n t d e a l t w i t h t h e a b i l i t y o f i s t u d e n t s t o p r e d i c t th e o c c u r r e n c e o f a c h e c k o r a p l u s i n i a s e r i e s o f c a r d s , i t i s d i f f i c u l t t o e x te n d t h i s to t h e s e l e c t i o n o f a rg u m e n ts b y c o l l e g e d e b a t e r s . T u c k e r s u g g e s t e d t h e p o s s i b i l i t y o f a d a p t i n g sim u - - i l a t i o n s to th e s p e e c h f i e l d . J i E l l i s s t u d i e d t h e e f f e c t s o f v a r i o u s c o m m u n ic a tio n i p a t t e r n s i n tw o - p e r s o n , z e ro -s u m , m ix e d -m o tiv e gam es o f th e 44 P r i s o n e r 's Dilemma t y p e . He c o n c lu d e d t h a t c o m m u n ica tio n d i d n o t p ro d u c e i n c r e a s e d c o m p e t i t i v e n e s s . I n a m ore e x - 40 -’ Raymond K. T u c k e r, "C om puter S i m u l a t io n s an d Sim u l a t i o n Gamesi T h e i r P l a c e I n t h e S p e e ch C u r r i c u l u m ," S p e e ch T e a c h e r , XVTI, No. 2 (M arch, 1 9 6 8 ) , 1 2 8 -1 3 3 . W h ile s im u la t i o n a n d game t h e o r y h a v e much i n common, t h e y a r e n o t t h e sam e. S im u la tio n I s c o n c e rn e d w i t h p e rfo rm a n c e f o r th e I n t r i n s i c v a lu e t h a t c a n b e o b t a i n e d fro m t h e r e p l i c a t i o n o f r e a l l i f e ; game t h e o r y I s I n t e r e s t e d i n t h e c a l c u l a t i o n o f o p t i m a l s t r a t e g i e s . ^ D e a n S. E l l i s , "An A n a l y s i s o f th e D i f f e r e n t i a l E f f e c t s o f V a r io u s T ypes a n d D e g re e s o f C om m unication O ppor t u n i t y b e tw e e n G r o u p s ," S p e e ch M onographs, XX XIII (A u g u s t, 196 6 ) , 2 2 5 -2 2 6 . I n P r i s o n e r 's Dilemma two s u b j e c t s e a c h h a v e a s t r a t e g y w i t h two c h o ic e b i C o o p e ra te o r C o n f l i c t . B o th a r e r e w a rd e d i f b o t h c o o p e r a t e ; b o t h a r e p u n is h e d I f b o th c o n f l i c t . H ow ever, I f one c o o p e r a t e s w h ile t h e o t h e r c h o o s e s c o n f l i c t , t h e o n e who c o o p e r a t e s i s p u n i s h e d . De p e n d in g on t h e p a y o f f s , t h e r e i s a t h e o r e t i c a l a d v a n ta g e t o c h o o se c o n f l i c t I n su c h g am es. S in c e t h e game haB some r e l a t i o n t o p ro b le m s o f d is a rm a m e n t a n d m i l i t a r y e s c a l a t i o n , t h e r e i s k e en i n t e r e s t I n m eth o d s o f s o l u t i o n f o r t h e gam e. 39 t e n s i v e e x a m in a tio n o f th e P r i s o n e r 's Dilemma, b u t w ith o u t r co m m u n ica tio n , R a p o p o rt and Chammah fo u n d t h a t c o o p e r a t i o n j iiE te n d e d to b e a d o p te d b y b o th p a r t i e s i n th e lo n g r u n . ^ A n a t o l R a p o p o rt and A l b e r t M. Chammah, P r i s o n e r 1s Dilemma (Ann A rb o r: U n i v e r s i t y o f M ich ig an P r e s s , 19^5)• CHAPTER I I I TECHNIQUES AND PROCEDURES D e s c r i p t i o n o f T e c h n iq u e s | D e v e lo p m e n t o f t h e Game T y p es I n o r d e r t o t e s t t h e r e s e a r c h h y p o t h e s i s * i t w as n e c e s s a r y t o d e v e lo p a s e t o f gam es w h ic h w o u ld o f f e r t h e s u b j e c t s t h e r e q u i r e d d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g p r o b le m s . A f t e r some p i l o t d e s ig n s * t h e e x p e r i m e n t e r d e v e lo p e d t h e e i g h t game t y p e s i n d i c a t e d i n F i g u r e 4 . The gam es c a n be c o n s i d e r e d f o u r v a r i a t i o n s e a c h o f t h e "X" a n d M Y" gameB d e s c r i b e d i n F i g u r e s 2 a n d 3 . By p r e s e n t i n g s u b j e c t s c h o i c e s i n game p a i r s * su c h a s Type I a n d Type V I I , t h e e x p e r i m e n t e r b e l i e v e d i t w o u ld b e p o s s i b l e t o d e te r m i n e w h e th e r t h e s u b j e c t s w e re c h o o s in g a rg u m e n t t y p e s o r p a y o f f s . A lso t h e gam es p r o v i d e d a c o m p le te r o t a t i o n o f t h e p a y o f f m a t r i x . C o m p u ter P ro gram m ing o f t h e Games A f t e r d e v e l o p in g t h e g a m e s, t h e y w e re a r r a n g e d i n a fo rm s u i t a b l e f o r p r e s e n t a t i o n to t h e s u b j e c t s . The e x p e r i m e n t e r h a d a c o m p u te r p ro g ra m d e v e lo p e d a n d u t i l i z e d th e s e r v i c e s o f t h e C o m p u ter C e n te r o f A r iz o n a S t a t e U n i v e r s i t y 40 41 GAME I GAM E V II A B A B Need 1 3 (o) 1 (2) * Need 1 0 (3) 2 (1) A d v an tag e 2 0 (3) 2 (1) A d v an tag e 2 3 (0) 1 (2) # # GAM E I I GAME V I I I A B A B Need 1 3 (0) 0 (3) Need 1 1 (2) 2 (1) A dvantage 2 1 (2) 2 (1) * A d v an tag e 2 3 (0) 0 (3) # # GAME I I I GAM E V A B A B Need 1 2 (1) 1 (2) * Need 1 0 (3) 3 (0) A d v an tag e 2 0 (3) 3 (o) A d v an tag e 2 2 (1) 1 (2) # # GAME IV GAM E VI A B A B Need 1 2 (1) 0 (3) Need 1 1 (2) 3 (0) A dvantage 2 1 (2) 3 (0) * A d van tage 2 2 (1) 0 (3) # # F ig . 4 . — Games I - V I I I A rra n g e d b y P a i r s 0 , a Type "X" games a r e : I I ; I I I ; V; V I I I . Type "Y" games a r e : I ; IV ; V I; V I I . The sym bol * I n d i c a t e s th e p r e f e r r e d row c h o ic e i n t h i s e x p e r im e n t. The sym bol # i n d i c a t e s th e p r e f e r r e d colum n c h o ic e f o r t h i s e x p e rim e n t. 4 2 t o p r e p a r e a Q u e s tio n n a ir e an d I n s t r u c t i o n B o o k le t and an 1 E x a m in a tio n B o o k le t. Q u e s t i o n n a i r e and I n s t r u c t i o n B o o k l e t . — The f i r s t p age o f t h e q u e s t i o n n a i r e r e q u e s t e d t h e s u b j e c t ’s name, a d d r e s s , a g e , s e x , s c h o o l, and d e b a te e x p e r ie n c e i n te rm s o f t h e num ber o f y e a r s an d w i n - l o s s r e c o r d i n h ig h s c h o o l and c o l l e g e . The seco n d page p r e s e n t e d t h e s u b j e c t w ith an "X" ty p e game, e x p la in e d t h e r e s u l t s o f c h o o s in g e i t h e r S t r a t e g y 1-N eed Case o r S t r a t e g y 2 -A d v a n ta g e C a se , an d a sk e d him to i n d i c a t e h i s c h o ic e . At t h e to p o f th e t h i r d p a g e , t h e s u b j e c t was t o l d w h at s t r a t e g y h i s o p p o n e n t h a d p la y e d i n th e p r e v io u s ro u n d on p ag e tw o. The s u b j e c t was th e n p r e s e n t e d w ith a seco n d game w hich was o f t h e "Y" t y p e , g iv e n a n o th e r d e m o n s tr a tio n o f t h e r e s u l t s o f t h e c h o i c e s , and a s k e d to make a d e c i s i o n . On p ag e t h r e e , th e e x p l a n a t i o n was i n t a b u l a r form ; on p ag e tw o , th e e x p l a n a t i o n w as i n s e n te n c e fo rm . Page t h r e e c o n c lu d e d w ith th e f o llo w in g e x p l a n a t i o n o f th e gam e’s s c o r i n g p r o c e d u r e s : 1. W hether you w in o r l o s e a ro u n d , you r e c e i v e t h e num ber o f v o t e s t h a t comes from t h e i n t e r s e c t i o n o f y o u r c h o ic e and y o u r o p p o n e n t’ s c h o ic e . O f, A ppendix A: Q u e s tio n n a ir e and I n s t r u c t i o n B ook l e t . The a sse m b ly p ro g ram was w r i t t e n i n F o r t r a n I I and ru n on a GE-225 c o m p u te r. 43 2 . Y o u r r e c o r d w i l l b e d e te r m i n e d on t h e b a s i s o f - F i r s t , >your w i n - l o s s r e c o r d , S e c o n d , t h e t o t a l num ber o f J u d g e s who v o t e f o r y o u . j A t t h e t o p o f t h e f o u r t h p a g e , t h e s u b j e c t w as t o l d ; i w h a t s t r a t e g y h i s o p p o n e n t h a d p l a y e d i n t h e p r e v i o u s r o u n d on p a g e 't h r e e . S u b j e c t s w e re th e n g i v e n t h e e x p e r i m e n t 's p r o c e d u r a l r u l e s w h ic h a s k e d them n o t to s k i p r o u n d s , o r a t te m p t to c o m m u n ica te w i t h a n y o n e b u t t h e p r o c t o r . The i n - ^ i s t r u c t i o n s t h e n i n d i c a t e d t h a t t h e s u b j e c t s c o u ld a s k a n y q u e s t i o n s t h a t t h e y h a d a b o u t t h e e x p e r i m e n t . The i n s t r u c t i o n s t h e n i n d i c a t e d t h a t t h e s u b j e c t s s h o u l d h a l t an d a w a i t f u r t h e r i n s t r u c t i o n s . E x a m in a tio n B o o k l e t . — The c o m p u te r w as program m ed to d e v i s e a r u n a s i x t y - f o u r p l a y s com posed o f e i g h t p l a y s o f e a c h o f t h e e i g h t game t y p e s shown i n F i g u r e 4 . The c o m p u te r w as program m ed t o i n d i c a t e on t h e t o p l i n e o f e a c h p a g e t h e s t r a t e g y t h a t i t h a d p l a y e d i n t h e p r e v i o u s r o u n d b y c i t i n g b o t h t h e l e t t e r a n d t y p e o f s t r a t e g y , e . g . , e i t h e r A = No N eed o r B = D i s a d v a n t a g e . The c o m p u te r I n d i c a t e d t h e to u r n a m e n t a n d ro u n d num ber t h a t w as a p p r o p r i a t e . The c o m p u te r a l s o p l a c e d t h e a p p r o p r i a t e p a y o f f s f o r t h e game t h a t i t h a d s e l e c t e d t o p l a y i n e a c h o f t h e b o x e s . The c o m p u te r a s s i g n e d a p l a y o f a game ty p e to e a c h move o r r o u n d i n a ran dom m an n e r h a l t i n g a f t e r e i g h t p l a y s o f e a c h game ty p e h a d b e e n a s s i g n e d . F i g u r e 5 show s t h e ROUND 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 1 IV I I I IV V IV V II I I I 2 V II I I I I VI I I VI I I 3 I I V I I I I V I I I V I I I V I I I V II 4 V II V V I I I I I I I V II IV 5 I I I V I I I IV V I I I VI V V I I I VI 6 V I I I I I V V II V I I I I I V II 7 V II VI I V V I VI IV 8 I I I VI VI I I I m ' IV I I I IV P ig . 5 . — Sequence o f th e P r e s e n t a t i o n o f Game Types b y T ournam ent and b y Round 45 se q u e n c e o f p r e s e n t a t i o n a s s ig n e d b y th e c o m p u te r. The co m p u ter g ro u p e d th e p l a y s i n t o to u rn a m e n ts o f e i g h t moves e a c h an d a s s i g n e d c o n s e c u tiv e ro u n d an d to u rn a m e n t num b ers. ; The b o o k l e t s th u s c o u ld b e a sse m b le d w ith o u t r e f e r e n c e to page o r q u e s t io n num bers, t h e r e f o r e su c h num bers w ere n o t a s s i g n e d i n th e b o o k l e t . i C hoice o f s t r a t e g y . — The e x p e r im e n te r had a d i f f i - ; i c u l t d e c i s i o n to make i n t h e c h o ic e o f a p u re o r m ixed s t r a t e g y . The b e s t c h o ic e w ould h a v e b een t o p la y a 1 /2 , 1 /2 m ix i n "X" gam es, and a 3 / 4 , 1 /4 mix i n "Y" gam es. N e i t h e r program m ing n o r a n a l y s i s w ould have s u f f e r e d from su ch a c h o ic e ; ho w ev er, t h i s a p p ro a c h m ig h t h av e b e en to o s o p h i s t i c a t e d f o r th e s u b j e c t s b e in g t e s t e d . I f s u b j e c t s w ere r e s t r i c t e d to th o s e w ith some know ledge o f game t h e o r y , th e s u b j e c t s m ig h t n o t have b een r e p r e s e n t a t i v e o f th e p op u l a t i o n o f c o l l e g e d e b a t e r s . B ut i f a l l s u b j e c t s w ere n a iv e i n game t h e o r y , a m ixed s t r a t e g y m ig h t have b e e n c o n fu s in g to them . F u r t h e r , s in c e no s t u d i e s h a d been done w hich 'p ro v id e d i n s i g h t i n t o th e p o s s i b l e n a t u r e o f d e b a t e r s ' r e sp o n s e s to t h i s ty p e o f s i t u a t i o n , i t was d e c id e d to u s e a ’'p u r e " a p p ro a c h . As th e co m p u ter a s s i g n e d a g iv e n game ty p e , i t lo o k e d f o r th e N e g a tiv e s t r a t e g y w h ic h c o n ta in e d th e p a y o f f : A f f i r m a t iv e 2; N e g a tiv e 1 . The c o m p u ter th e n i n d i c a t e d on th e to p o f th e n e x t page t h a t t h a t s t r a t e g y h a d b een s e l e c t e d . 46 T hus, th e e x p e r im e n te r p la y e d to lo s e a l l "X" and w in a l l "Y" gam es, i f th e s u b j e c t s w ere w i l l i n g to m in im iz e . I f some o t h e r b e h a v io r to o k p l a c e , th e e x p e r im e n te r c o u ld • e a s i l y l o s e a l l o r w in a l l th e r o u n d s . Each s u b j e c t b e g an th e e x p e rim e n t w ith t h e know ledge o f how th e com pu ter p la y e d i n an "X" an d a "Y" ty p e game, b u t w it h o u t know ledge : I i a b o u t how th e c o m p u ter made t h a t c h o ic e . i 1 C o m p letio n o f th e b o o k l e t s . — The co m p u ter p r i n t e d th e Q u e s tio n n a ir e an d I n s t r u c t i o n B o o k le t and t h e E xam ina t i o n B o o k le t on d i t t o m a s te r s . The d i t t o m a s te r s w ere th e n u s e d to p ro d u c e s i x t y c o p ie s o f e a c h b o o k l e t . A f t e r th e program m ing had b e e n p r e p a r e d , th e e x p e r i m e n te r d e c id e d n o t to u s e t h e i n s t r u c t i o n s t h a t a sk e d th e B u b je c ts to c h ec k t h e i r c h o ic e o f s t r a t e g y i n t h e E xam ina t i o n B o o k le t o r t h e r e q u e s t f o r a r e a s o n f o r t h e s u b j e c t 's c h o i c e s . The m anner i n w h ich t h i s was h a n d le d i s d e s c r i b e d b e lo w . How ever, i t was c o n s id e r e d to o d i f f i c u l t to r e v i s e th e program m ing a t t h a t p o i n t . No p ro b lem was c a u se d i n th e a d m i n i s t r a t i o n o f th e d e s ig n from th e o m is s io n o f th e s e i te m s . The l a s t p a g e o f t h e E x a m in a tio n B o o k le t c o n ta in e d a q u e s t io n w hich a s k e d th e s u b j e c t i f he had e v e r ta k e n p a r t i n , r e a d o f , o r w itn e s s e d any s t u d i e s i n game th e o r y o r c o n f l i c t b e h a v i o r . I f t h e a n sw e r was Y es, t h e s u b j e c t was a s k e d to e x p l a i n w hat t h a t e x p e r ie n c e w as. * A d m i n is tr a t io n o f th e E x p e rim e n t 47 S e l e c t i o n o f t h e S u b j e c t s M ales w i t h a know ledge o f game t h e o r y an d fe m a le s w ere th e o n ly c o l l e g e d e b a t e r s who w ere e x c lu d e d a s s u b j e c t s . The s tu d y was r e s t r i c t e d to m a le s i n o r d e r to r e duce any v a r i a b l e t h a t m ig h t be i n tr o d u c e d b y a d i f f e r e n c e ; b etw een m ale and fe m a le d e b a t e r s . S u b je c ts w ith a know le d g e o f game th e o r y w ere e x c lu d e d s i n c e th e s tu d y was i n te n d e d to d e te rm in e how d e b a t e r s w ould s e l e c t a rg u m e n ts n o t how w e l l game t h e o r i s t s c o u ld p la y th e e x p e r im e n ta l gam es. The f o llo w in g num ber o f s u b j e c t s w ere r e c r u i t e d a t I jthe f o llo w in g l o c a l e s : | T h i r t e e n s u b j e c t s w ere o b t a i n e d a t th e U n i v e r s i t y j jof A riz o n a D e s e r t I n v i t a t i o n a l T o u rn am en t, T u cso n , A riz o n a , on M arch 1, 1 9 6 8 . j Twenty s u b j e c t s w ere o b t a i n e d a t th e P i Kappa D e l ta 1 J R e g io n a l T o u rn am en t, Y o sem lte N a t io n a l P a rk , C a l i f o r n i a , on M arch 21, 1 9 6 8 . i t | E i g h t s u b j e c t s w ere o b t a i n e d a t th e U n i v e r s i t y o f Nevada T o u rn am en t, Reno, N evada, on A p r i l 5 , 1 9 6 8 . T h ree s u b j e c t s c o m p le te d and two s u b j e c t s p a r t i a l l y c o m p le te d t h e e x p e rim e n t a t t h e N a t io n a l D eb ate T ournam ent h e l d a t B ro o k ly n , New Y o rk , on A p r i l 17, 19^8. 48 F iv e s u b j e c t s w ere o b t a i n e d a t t h e U n i v e r s i t y o f S o u th e rn C a l i f o r n i a an d t h e U n i v e r s i t y o f C a l i f o r n i a a t Los A n g e le s on May l 6 , 1 9 6 8 . 1 At th e f i r s t f o u r l o c a t i o n s , t h e e x p e r im e n te r c o n t a c t e d th e to u rn a m e n t d i r e c t o r , r e c e i v e d p e r m is s io n to c o n d u c t th e e x p e r im e n t, and was g iv e n a room an d a b o u t two ! h o u r s o f f r e e tim e . The e x p e r im e n te r th e n c o n ta c t e d a s 1 many D i r e c t o r s o f F o r e n s i c s a s p o s s i b l e a s th e y r e g i s t e r e d ; f o r t h e to u rn a m e n t. The D i r e c t o r s o f F o r e n s i c s w ere t o l d t h a t an e x p e rim e n t was b e in g c o n d u c te d r e g a r d i n g th e n a tu r e o f th e s e l e c t i o n o f a rg u m e n ts by c o l l e g e d e b a t e r s . T h e ir c o o p e r a t i o n i n e n c o u ra g in g t h e i r d e b a t e r s to engage i n th e e x p e rim e n t was s o l i c i t e d . I n r e t u r n , t h e e x p e r im e n te r prom i s e d to in fo rm t h e D i r e c t o r s and th e s u b j e c t s o f th e r e s u l t s o f th e e x p e r im e n t. S u b je c ts a t th e N a t io n a l D ebate T ou rn am en t, U .S .C . an d U .C .L .A . w ere c o n t a c t e d w ith th e a i d o f th e D i r e c t o r s o f F o r e n s i c s o f San F ern an d o V a lle y S t a t e C o lle g e , U.S.C., an d U .C .L .A . E x c e p t f o r two s u b j e c t s a t th e N a t io n a l D eb ate T o u rn am en t, a l l s u b j e c t s c o m p le te d th e e x p e r im e n t. The b o o k l e t s o f th e two s u b j e c t s who i n t e r r u p t e d t h e i r exam w ere Im m e d ia te ly d e s t r o y e d ; t h e s u b j e c t s w ere n o t p e r m i t t e d to r e - s t a r t th e exam. A breakdow n b y s c h o o l o f th e s u b j e c t s who c o m p le te d t h e t e s t i s shown i n T a b le 1. F o u r m ale s u b j e c t s w ere r e - 49 TABUS 1 CLASSIFICATION BY SCHOOL OF SUBJECTS COMPLETING TESTS 36 M ale S u b j e c t s A c c e p te d C a l i f o r n i a I n s t i t u t e o f T e c h n o lo g y ............................. 2 C a l i f o r n i a S t a t e C o lle g e a t F u l l e r t o n ........................ 3 C a l i f o r n i a S t a t e C o lle g e a t H ayw ard............................. 2 C a l i f o r n i a S t a t e C o lle g e a t H um boldt...........................2 C a l i f o r n i a S t a t e C o lle g e a t Los A ng eleB ................... 1 C a l i f o r n i a W e ste rn U n i v . . . 2 Id a h o S t a t e U n iv ........................ 1 L o y o la U n i v e r s i t y ......................1 N o rth e rn A riz o n a U n iv ............2 San D iego S t a t e C o l le g e ............1 San F ern an d o V a lle y S t a t e C o l l e g e ..........................................2 S t a n f o r d U n i v e r s i t y ......................1 U n i v e r s i t y o f C a l i f o r n i a a t Los A n g e le s ........................ 2 U n i v e r s i t y o f C a l i f o r n i a a t S a n ta B a r b a r a ................ U n i v e r s i t y o f San D i e g o . . . . U n i v e r s i t y o f S o u th e rn C a l i f o r n i a .................................. 2 U n i v e r s i t y o f M ontana.................2 U n i v e r s i t y o f N evada................... 1 U n i v e r s i t y o f th e P a c i f i c . . . 2 9 Fem ale S u b j e c t s R e je c te d C a l i f o r n i a S t a t e C o lle g e a t Long B e a c h ......................1 C a l i f o r n i a S t a t e C o lle g e a t F u l l e r t o n ........................ 1 San D iego S t a t e C o l l e g e . . . 1 U n i v e r s i t y o f C a l i f o r n i a a t B e r k e l e y ...........................1 U n i v e r s i t y o f C a l i f o r n i a a t Los A n g e le s . U n i v e r s i t y o f C a l i f o r n i a a t S a n ta B a r b a r a . U n i v e r s i t y o f O r e g o n . . . . , ,2 ,2 4 M ale " E x p e rt" S u b j e c t s R e je c te d C a l i f o r n i a I n s t i t u t e o f U n i v e r s i t y o f C a l i f o r n i a T e c h n o lo g y .............................. 1 a t B e r k e l e y ................................1 S t a n f o r d U n i v e r s i t y . . .............1 U n i v e r s i t y o f O reg o n .....................1 50 j e c t e d a s " e x p e r t s " b e c a u s e th e y i n d i c a t e d t h a t th e y knew so m e th in g a b o u t game t h e o r y . N ine o f t h e s u b j e c t s w ere r e - 'j e c t e d b e c a u s e th e y w ere women. Of th e r e m a in in g t h i r t y - : s i x m ales a l l a p p a r e n t l y knew n o th in g o f game t h e o r y . I n s t r u c t i o n s t o th e S u b j e c t s The e x p e r im e n te r gave e a c h s u b j e c t a copy o f t h e i Q u e s tio n n a ir e and I n s t r u c t i o n B o o k le t, a p e n c i l , and an j IBM s c o r in g s h e e t . The s u b j e c t s w ere r e q u e s t e d to p u t . t h e i r names on th e s c o r in g s h e e t s and th e n s e t t h e s c o r in g s h e e t s a s i d e . S u b j e c t s w ere th e n r e q u e s t e d to f i l l i n th e f i r s t p a g e o f th e Q u e s tio n n a ir e and I n s t r u c t i o n B o o k le t, a n d th e n r e a d th e i n s t r u c t i o n s . When a l l s u b j e c t s had f i n i s h e d r e a d i n g th e i n s t r u c t i o n s , th e e x p e r im e n te r aBked i f t h e r e w ere any q u e s t i o n s . ■ O nly q u e s t i o n s o f an a d m i n i s t r a t i v e n a t u r e w ere a n sw e re d . I f th e s u b j e c t s w a n te d s p e c i f i c i n f o r m a ti o n a s to how th e y s h o u ld c h o o s e , th e y w ere t o l d to b eh av e a s th o u g h th e y w ere i n a r e a l d e b a te to u rn a m e n t. The e x p e r im e n te r r e f u s e d to g iv e any o f t h e s u b j e c t s i n f o r m a ti o n a b o u t t h e n a t u r e o f t h e i r o p p o n e n t bey ond t e l l i n g them t h a t t h e e x p e r im e n te r h a d been r e s p o n s i b l e f o r t h e co m p u ter program m ing. The s u b j e c t s w ere t o l d t h a t th e e x p e rim e n t h a d no r i g h t o r w rong a n s w e rs ; w h a te v e r b e h a v io r th e s u b j e c t s a d o p te d w ould b e " r i g h t . " The e x p e r im e n te r in fo rm e d th e s u b j e c t s t h a t I t was p o s s i b l e t o c h e a t on t h e t e s t , b u t t h a t c h e a ti n g w ould n o t 51 r e a l l y h e l p t h e s u b j e c t s a n d m ig h t h u r t t h e e x p e r i m e n t e r 's c h a n c e s o f s e c u r i n g u s e f u l d a t a . The e x p e r i m e n t e r -w atched , i a l l s u b j e c t s a s c l o s e l y a s p o s s i b l e d u r i n g t h e e x p e r i m e n t a l j p e r i o d s ; t h e r e d i d n o t a p p e a r t o b e a n y s i g n s o f c h e a t i n g o c c u r r i n g . S u b j e c t s w e re c a u t i o n e d to m ark t h e IBM s c o r i n g I s h e e t s h o r i z o n t a l l y . S u b j e c t s w e re i n f o r m e d t h a t t h e r e was t a t o t a l o f s i x t y - f o u r r o u n d s d i v i d e d i n t o e i g h t t o u r n a m e n t s .' The s u b j e c t s w e re d i r e c t e d t o n o t e t h a t t h e y s h o u ld f i n i s h two l i n e s on t h e s c o r i n g s h e e t s f o r e v e r y t o u r n a m e n t. T hen s u b j e c t s w e re g i v e n t h e E x a m in a tio n B o o k l e t s a n d t o l d t o p r o c e e d . S u b j e c t s w e re a ll o w e d t o r e t a i n t h e Q u e s t i o n n a i r e a n d I n s t r u c t i o n B o o k l e t t h r o u g h o u t t h e e x p e r i m e n t a n d r e f e r b a c k t o i t , i f n e c e s s a r y . S u b j e c t s a l s o w e re p e r m i t t e d t o m a i n t a i n n o t e s on t h e i r d e c i s i o n s a n d r e c o r d s , The n o rm a l i n s t r u c t i o n p e r i o d to o k fro m f i v e t o f i f t e e n m i n u t e s , d e p e n d in g on how lo n g t h e s u b j e c t s to o k to r e a d t h e i n s t r u c t i o n s a n d on how few s u b j e c t s t h e r e w e r e . The f e w e r s u b j e c t s , t h e f a s t e r t h e i n s t r u c t i o n p e r i o d was a b l e t o b e t e r m i n a t e d . A few s u b je c ts com pleted th e experim ent in f i f t e e n m in u tes, but moBt s u b je c ts took about tw enty minuteB a f t e r f in i s h i n g the in s t r u c t io n s . The maximum time was about f o r t y - f i v e m in u tes. 52 P o s t " T e s t B e h a v io r When t h e s u b j e c t s f i n i s h e d , t h e e x p e r i m e n t e r c h e c k e d i t h e fo rm s t o make s u r e a l l I t e m s h a d b e e n c o m p le te d , t h a t nam es a n d o t h e r i n f o r m a t i o n w e re l e g i b l e a n d t h e n s t a c k e d t h e p a p e r s i n o r d e r . Any p o s t - t e s t q u e s t i o n s from t h e s u b j e c t s w e re i h a n d le d i n d i r e c t l y b y r e p e a t i n g w h a t t h e s u b j e c t s w e re t o l d b e f o r e t h e exam . Some s u b j e c t s becam e q u i t e i n v o l v e d i n ) t h e a c t i v i t y o f t h e gam e. T h e se s u b j e c t s w ere a s s u r e d t h a t t h e i r d e c i s i o n s w e re a " c o r r e c t 1 1 i n t e r p r e t a t i o n o f t h e gam e. S u b jects were asked n ot to discuB s th e experim ent w ith anyone from t h e ir sc h o o l or another sch o o l fo r a t lea sti l I I two monthB in order to g iv e the experim enter enough tim e to i g a t h e r a d d i t i o n a l s u b j e c t s . W h e th e r t h i s i n s t r u c t i o n w as f o l l o w e d o r n o t , t h e e x p e r i m e n t e r d e t e c t e d no i n d i c a t i o n t h a t a n y s u b j e c t i n t h e l a t t e r g r o u p s h a d a n y p r i o r know l e d g e o f t h e e x p e r i m e n t s c o n t e n t . P r o c e s s i n g o f t h e D a ta A f t e r t h e s u b j e c t s r e t u r n e d t h e i r b o o k l e t s , t h e e x p e r i m e n t e r rem o v e d a l l b o o k l e t s c o m p le te d b y f e m a le s u b j e c t s . The r e s e a r c h e r c h e c k e d t h e f i n a l p a g e o f a l l E x am i n a t i o n B o o k l e t s a n d e l i m i n a t e d a l l s u b j e c t s who i n d i c a t e d a k n o w le d g e o f game t h e o r y . A t o t a l o f n i n e fe m a le a n d f o u r m ale s u b j e c t s w e re t h u s e l i m i n a t e d . The r e m a in i n g t h i r t y - 53 s i x m ale s u b j e c t s w ere th e n num bered i n t h e o r d e r i n w h ic h t h e i r t e s t s h a d b e e n r e t u r n e d . On t h e b a s i s o f t h e q u e s t i o n n a i r e an sw ers,, th e s u b - i i j e c t s w ere r a n k e d i n t h e f o l lo w in g c a t e g o r i e s : ( l ) t h e num b e r o f y e a r s o f h ig h s c h o o l d e b a te e x p e r i e n c e p l u s th e e s t i m a t e d num ber o f h i g h s c h o o l w in s o r p e r c e n t a g e o f w in s ; ; i ( 2 ) t h e num ber o f y e a r s o f c o l l e g e d e b a te e x p e r i e n c e p l u s i t h e e s t i m a t e d num ber o f c o l l e g e w in s o r p e r c e n t a g e o f w in s ; i ( 3 ) t h e t o t a l num ber o f y e a r s o f d e b a te e x p e r i e n c e p l u s th e e s t i m a t e d num ber o f c o l l e g e w in s o r p e r c e n t a g e o f w in s ; (4) t h e c o m p o s ite r a n k i n g o f t h e p r e v i o u s t h r e e . S in c e t h e i n f o r m a tio n r e g a r d i n g t h e s u b j e c t s ' e x p e r i e n c e was s u b j e c t i v e i i n n a t u r e a n d d i f f i c u l t t o v e r i f y , no g r e a t r e l i a n c e was ip la c e d on t h e s e r a n k i n g s . S u b j e c t s w ere r a n k e d f i r s t , a c - i c o r d i n g t o t h e num ber o f y e a rB i n d i c a t e d f o r a c a t e g o r y ; s e c o n d , a c c o r d i n g to t h e num ber o f w in s c la im e d ; t h i r d , a c c o r d i n g t o c la im e d p e r c e n t a g e . A l l t i e s w ere a v e r a g e d . W here i n f o r m a t i o n was n o t a v a i l a b l e , t h e s u b j e c t s w ere p l a c e d l a s t . A ls o , s u b j e c t s w ere r a n k e d a c c o r d in g to num b e r o f c o l l e a g u e s t h e y h a d h a d . The s u b j e c t s ' IBM s c o r e s h e e t s w ere ta k e n to t h e A r iz o n a S t a t e U n i v e r s i t y E d u c a t i o n a l T e s t i n g S e r v i c e . The s h e e t s w ere s c o r e d a n d c o m p u te r c a r d s w ere p u n c h e d a u t o m a t i c a l l y . The e x p e r i m e n t e r now h a d t h i r t y - s i x c o m p u te r c a r d s , e a c h c o n t a i n i n g a l l s i x t y - f o u r o f a s u b j e c t ' s a n - 54 e w e rs. The c a r d s w ere ta k e n to t h e A.S.TJ. Com puter C e n te r 2 a n d p r o c e s s e d on a GE-225 c o m p u te r. F i r s t j th e c o m p u ter com pared e a c h s u b j e c t 's a n sw e rs j w ith a key p r e p a r e d by th e e x p e r im e n te r and p r i n t e d o u t th e s i x t y - f o u r i n d i v i d u a l r e s p o n s e s p l u s th e num ber o f c o r r e c t a n d i n c o r r e c t r e s p o n s e s f o r e a c h s u b j e c t . S econd , t h e co m p u ter c a l c u l a t e d and p r i n t e d o u t e a c h s u b j e c t ' b c o r r e c t an d i n c o r r e c t s c o r e s on a to u rn a m e n t b a s i s . T h ir d , th e co m p u ter to o k t h e e le v e n i n s t a n c e s w here games o f th e same ty p e o c c u r r e d i n p a i r s an d a n a ly z e d th e r e s p o n s e s . The co m p u ter th e n p r i n t e d o u t a s e q u e n t i a l game ty p e a n a l y s i s w h ich l i s t e d th e num ber o f tim e s a s u b j e c t h a d b e en c o r r e c t on b o th th e f i r s t and se co n d game o f a p a i r and th e num ber o f tim e s t h a t he h ad b een i n c o r r e c t , i . e . , he had b een i n c o r r e c t on one o r b o th memberB o f th e p a i r . i | F o u r th , t h e c o m p u ter d e te rm in e d t h e num ber o f tim e s i t h a t th e s u b j e c t c h o se th e n e ed an d th e a d v a n ta g e c a s e when i t was t h e c o r r e c t move and th e num ber o f tim e s th e s u b j e c t ch o se e a c h when i t was th e i n c o r r e c t move an d p r i n t e d o u t t h e i n f o r m a ti o n . 2 The a n a l y s i s p ro g ram was w r i t t e n i n F o r t r a n IV by Jo h n P e a rc e o f th e A.S.TJ. Com puter C e n te r , who a l s o w ro te th e a sse m b ly p ro g ram . 55 F i n a l l y , t h e c o m p u te r c a l c u l a t e d t h e num ber o f tim e s e a c h s u b j e c t p l a y e d e a c h game ty p e c o r r e c t l y an d p r i n t e d o u t a game ty p e a n a l y s i s . The o r d e r i n w h ic h t h e d a t a w e re c a l c u l a t e d was d i c t a t e d b y p ro g ram m in g n e e d s . The d a t a w ere a n a l y z e d i n a s l i g h t l y d i f f e r e n t o r d e r . ! The f o l lo w in g t e s t s o f d a t a u s e d t h e mean o f th e d i f f e r e n c e s b e tw e e n two m e a s u re s f o r e a c h i n d i v i d u a l : ^ F i r s t , t o t a l an d c o r r e c t c h o i c e s o f n e e d an d o f a d v a n ta g e w ere co m p ared . S e c o n d , c o r r e c t c h o i c e s i n e a c h game ty p e w ere com p a r e d w i t h c o r r e c t c h o i c e s i n e a c h o t h e r game t y p e . T h i r d , c o r r e c t c h o ic e s i n e a c h to u rn a m e n t w ere com p a r e d w i t h c o r r e c t c h o i c e s i n e a c h o t h e r to u r n a m e n t. F o u r t h , c o r r e c t c h o ic e s i n t h e f i r s t an d se c o n d p l a y o f e a c h s e q u e n t i a l game w e re co m p a red . F i n a l l y , e a c h s u b j e c t ' s p r e f e r e n c e l e v e l was c a l c u l a t e d : a l l i n c o r r e c t d e c i s i o n s i n "X" a n d "Y" gam es w ere c o n s i d e r e d a p r e f e r e n c e f o r z e ro J u d g e s . A l l c o r r e c t d e c i s i o n s i n "X" a n d "Y" gam es w ere c o n s i d e r e d a p r e f e r e n c e f o r one J u d g e . A l l c o r r e c t d e c i s i o n s i n "X" gam es a n d i n c o r r e c t d e c i s i o n s i n "Y" gam es w e re c o n s i d e r e d a s a p r e f e r e n ce f o r two J u d g e s . A l l i n c o r r e c t d e c i s i o n s i n "X" games ■^Helen M. W alk er an d J o s e p h L ev , S t a t i s t i c a l I n f e r - e n c e (New Y o rk r H o l t , R i n e h a r t & W in sto n ” 1 9 5 3 )Y PP« 1 5 1 - 1 5 3 7 ___________________ Ian d c o r r e c t d e c i s i o n s i n "Y" games w ere c o n s id e r e d a p r e f e r e n c e f o r t h r e e J u d g e s . T hese p r e f e r e n c e l e v e l s w ere th e n i ; com pared. | As a fu rth er checkj each s u b je c t's win-loBS record was c a l c u l a t e d ; e a c h c o r r e c t "X" and i n c o r r e c t "Y" game was c o n s i d e r e d a w in . E ach i n c o r r e c t "X" an d c o r r e c t "Y" game I | ■was c o n s id e r e d a l o s s . T hese r e s u l t s w ere th e n com pared ' ;W ith t h e e x p e c te d outcom e o f an " e q u a l" s t r a t e g y c a l c u l a t e d ' :on t h e b a s i s o f an e q u a l d i s t r i b u t i o n o f w in s and l o s s e s o r ;a "m ixed" s t r a t e g y c a l c u l a t e d on th e b a s i s o f o p tim a l s t r a t e g i e s . • j S u b j e c t s w ere a l s o a s s i g n e d an "X" game s c o r e and a j j "Y" game s c o r e a c c o r d in g to th e sy stem i n d i c a t e d i n T ab le ) i 2 . "X" s c o r e s w ere a s s ig n e d b y g iv in g t h e s u b j e c t one p o in t; f o r e a c h c o r r e c t d e c i s i o n i n an "X" ty p e game— th e d i f f e r - j e n ce b e tw e e n th e num ber o f Ju d g e s won an d l o s t — and su b t r a c t i n g t h r e e p o i n t s f o r e a c h i n c o r r e c t "X" d e c i s i o n — th e num ber o f Ju d g e s l o s t . A c o r r e c t s t r a t e g y i n an "X" game ;w ould r e s u l t i n a 2 -1 d e c i s i o n and an i n c o r r e c t s t r a t e g y w ould r e s u l t i n a 0 - 3 d e c i s i o n . S c o re s o f "Y" ty p e games w ere a s s i g n e d by g i v i n g th e B u b je c t one p o i n t f o r e a c h i n c o r r e c t a n sw e r an d s u b t r a c t i n g one p o i n t f o r e ac h c o r r e c t . s d e c i s io n — th e d i f f e r e n c e b e tw e e n th e num ber o f JudgeB won land l o s t . A p o s i t i v e "X" s c o r e i n d i c a t e s t h a t th e s u b j e c t won jmore th a n t h r e e - f o u r t h s o f t h e "X" gam esj a n e g a t iv e "X" i_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ : _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ TABLE 2 SCORING SYSTEM FOR "X" AND "Y" TYPE GAMES 57 ________"X" Type Games_________ "Y" Type Games_______ N N "X" N N "Y" C o r r e c t I n c o r r e c t S c o re C o r r e c t I n c o r r e c t S c o re +32 +28 +24 +20 + l 6 +12 30 -2 4 -22 -2 0 -18 - l 6 -14 -12 -10 22 21 20 10 11 12 22 21 20 10 11 12 -4 4 -4 8 “52 -5 6 -6 0 -6 4 -68 -7 2 -7 6 -80 -8 4 -88 -9 2 -9 6 12 11 20 21 22 20 21 22 12 11 10 +10 +12 +14 +16 +18 +20 +22 +24 +26 +28 +30 +32 58 s c o r e I n d i c a t e s t h a t h e won l e s s t h a n t h r e e - f o u r t h s o f t h e "X" g am es. A z e r o "Xir s c o r e was c o n s i d e r e d p o s i t i v e . A p o s i t i v e "Y" s c o r e i n d i c a t e s t h a t t h e s u b j e c t won | m ore th a n h a l f o f t h e "Y" g am es; a n e g a t i v e "Y" s c o r e i n d i c a t e s t h a t h e won l e s s th a n h a l f o f t h e "Y" g a m e s. A zero. "Y ",:S6o r e w as c o n s i d e r e d n e g a t i v e . I t w as c o n s i d e r e d i n - I c o r r e c t t o w in a "Y" game a n d c o r r e c t to w in "X" g a m e s. I f t h e s u b j e c t s s e l e c t e d minimum w in n in g a rg u m e n ts ! 1 b y u s i n g a p u r e s t r a t e g y , we w o u ld e x p e c t t o f i n d s u b j e c t s w in n in g a l l M Xn a n d l o s i n g a l l "Y" g a m e s. I n t h i s c a s e , a s u b j e c t w o u ld h a v e an "X" s c o r e o f + 3 2 a n d a "Y" s c o r e o f - 3 2 . I f t h e s u b j e c t s s e l e c t e d minimum w in n in g a rg u m e n ts l ■uwing a m ix e d s t r a t e g y , we w o u ld e x p e c t t o f i n d them w in n in g t h r e e - f o u r t h s o f t h e "X" gam es a n d h a l f o f t h e "Y" g a m e s. I n t h i s c a s e , a s u b j e c t w o u ld h a v e an "X" s c o r e o f +0 a n d a "Y" s c o r e o f - 0 . T h e r e f e r e , an y s u b j e c t s b e tw e e n t h o s e two p o s i t i o n s w e re c o n s i d e r e d " m in im iz e r s " who h a d b e h a v e d i n a jm anner p r e d i c t e d b y t h e r e s e a r c h h y p o t h e s i s . 1 i I f t h e s u b j e c t s h a d b o t h p o s i t i v e "X" a n d "Y" s c o r e s p I t w o u ld I n d i c a t e t h a t t h e y w e re a t t e m p t i n g t o w in a s many p l a y s a s p o s s i b l e . ^ T h e re fo re , t h i s t y p e o f s u b j e c t w as c o n s i d e r e d a " m a x im iz e r ." I f s u b j e c t s h a d n e g a t i v e "X" s c o r e s b u t p o s i t i v e "Y" s c o r e s i t w o u ld I n d i c a t e e i t h e r t h a t t h e s u b j e c t w as I n e f f i c i e n t s i n c e h e l o s t low r i s k gam es a n d a t t e m p t e d t o w in h ig h r i s k gam es o r t h a t h e w as a t t a c h e d to t h e c o n c e p t o f w in n in g w i t h t h r e e J u d g e s . I n e i t h e r case,, t h i s ty p e o f s u b j e c t w as c l a s s i f i e d a s " i n e f f i c i e n t . ' ' F i n a l l y , I f s u b j e c t s h a d b o t h n e g a t i v e "X" an d "Y s c o r e s i t w o u ld i n d i c a t e t h a t t h e y p r e f e r r e d to l o s e a l l Ju d g e s i f th e y c o u ld n o t w in . T h is ty p e o f s u b j e c t was c l a s s i f i e d a s a " g a m b le r ." CHAPTER IV PRESENTATION OF THE DATA A n a l y s i s o f N e e d -A d v a n ta g e C h o ic e s The s u b j e c t s 1 c h o i c e s o f n e e d a n d a d v a n ta g e w e re a r r a y e d , a s I n d i c a t e d i n T a b le 3 , a c c o r d i n g to t h e c h o ic e o f s t r a t e g y a n d w h e th e r t h e c h o ic e w as c o n s i d e r e d c o r r e c t o r I n c o r r e c t f o r t h e move w h e re I t w as m ade. I n c o m p a rin g t h e t o t a l c h o i c e s o f n e e d w i t h t h e t o t a l c h o i c e s o f a d v a n t a g e u s i n g t h e m ean o f t h e d i f f e r e n c e f o r e a c h i n d i v i d u a l , t h e t - v a l u e waB 1 .9 5 w h ic h w as s i g n i f i c a n t a t t h e .0 5 l e v e l w i t h d . f . = 3 0 . I n c o m p a rin g t h e t o t a l c o r r e c t c h o i c e s o f n e e d w i t h t h e t o t a l c o r r e c t c h o i c e s o f a d v a n t a g e , t h e t_ was 2 . 2 9 , w h ic h w as a l s o s i g n i f i c a n t a t t h e .0 5 l e v e l . A n a l y s i s o f Games I - V I I I The e x p e r i m e n t e r t h e n a r r a y e d t h e c o r r e c t c h o ic e I n e a c h game a s I n d i c a t e d i n T a b l e s 4 a n d 5 . C o r r e c t c h o i c e s i n "X" t y p e gam es i n d i c a t e w in s w i t h two j u d g e s ; c o r r e c t c h o i c e s I n "Y" gam es i n d i c a t e l o s s e s w i t h o n e j u d g e . S in c e e a c h o f Games I th r o u g h V I I I h a d e i g h t p l a y s a n d t h e r e w e re t h i r t y - s i x s u b j e c t s , t h e h i g h e s t p o s s i b l e n um ber o f c o r r e c t c h o i c e s c o u ld h a v e b e e n 2 8 8 . The num ber o f i n c o r r e c t 60 TABLE 3 SUBJECTS' NEED AND ADVANTAGE CHOICES Chose Need Chose A dvantage Ss C o r r e c t I n c o r r e c t C o r r e c t I n c o r r e c t : 1 30 3 29 2 2 16 15 17 16 : 3 20 8 24 12 4 14 14 18 18 i 5 18 16 16 14 6 14 20 12 18 7 32 5 27 0 8 23 13 19 9 9 20 13 19 12 10 22 17 15 10 11 18 16 16 14 12 17 19 13 15 19 12 20 13 14 16 20 12 16 15 15 16 16 17 16 24 10 22 8 17 21 13 19 11 18 15 17 17 19 26 3 29 6 20 13 17 19 21 19 18 14 13 22 23 5 -27 9 23 20 17 15 12 24 16 14 18 16 25 16 16 16 16 26 21 14 18 11 27 24 18 14 8 28 15 15 17 17 29 16 14 18 16 30 24 9 23 8 31 32 5 27 0 32 31 10 22 1 33 21 12 20 11 34 7 23 9 25 31 0 32 1 36 17 13 19 15 T o ta l 726 468 684 426 TABLE 4 SUBJECTS* CORRECT CHOICES IN "X" TVPE GAMES Ss Game IX Game I I I Game V Game V I I I 1 8 7 7 8 2 8 8 8 8 3 7 6 7 8 4 8 7 6 7 5 5 7 7 8 6 2 7 3 0 7 7 8 7 8 8 7 8 6 8 9 3 6 4 4 10 2 5 4 4 11 3 2 5 6 12 2 5 4 5 13 4 4 5 14 6 3 2 3 15 1 1 0 0 16 7 8 7 4 17 4 7 7 7 1 8 . 8 8 8 ~ 7 19 7 8 8 5 20 4 6 3 3 21 4 7 7 7 22 7 4 6 6 23 3 6 7 4 24 8 8 8 8 25 8 7 5 8 26 7 8 7 8 27 2 5 4 5 28 8 6 8 8 29 2 6 7 1 30 7 7 5 7 31 7 8 7 8 32 6 8 5 8 33 7 8 7 7 34 2 1 0 0 35 8 8 8 7 36 7 7 7 8 T o ta l 197 225 205 208 TABLE 5 SUBJECTS' CORRECT CHOICES IN "Y" TYPE GAMES Ss Game I Game IV Game V I Game V I I 10 11 12 20 21 22 28 - 4 - T o t a l 156 132 137 150 64 c h o i c e s can b e o b t a i n e d b y s u b t r a c t i n g t h e num ber o f c o r r e c t c h o i c e s i n a g iv e n Game fro m 288. The s u b j e c t s ' c o r r e c t c h o i c e s - i n e a c h game w e re j c o m p ared w i t h t h e i r c o r r e c t c h o ic e s i n t h e o t h e r s e v e n g a m e s. The r e s u l t s a r e i n d i c a t e d i n T a b le 6 . T h e re w ere f o u r gam es w here t h e n e e d s t r a t e g y w as c o n s i d e r e d t h e c o r r e c t c h o ic e b y t h e e x p e r i m e n t e r : Games i IX , IV , V, a n d V I I . T h e re w ere f o u r c o m p a ris o n s b e tw e e n j i t h e s e games w h ic h w ere s i g n i f i c a n t a t t h e .0 5 l e v e l : I I - I V j I I - V I I ; IV -V ; an d V -V II. A l l o f t h e c o m p a ris o n s t h a t w ere s i g n i f i c a n t w e re b e tw e e n "X" a n d "Y" ty p e gam es. The two c o m p a ris o n s t h a t w ere n o n - s i g n i f i c a n t w e re b e tw e e n gam es o f t h e same t y p e : I I - V w e re b o t h "X" t y p e s j IV -V II w e re b o t h "Y" t y p e s . T h e re w ere f o u r gam es w here t h e e x p e r i m e n t e r c o n s i d e r e d a d v a n ta g e to b e t h e c o r r e c t c h o i c e : Games I , I I I , V I , a n d V I I I . T h ree o f t h e c o m p a ris o n s w e re s i g n i f i c a n t a t t h e .05 l e v e l : I - I I I ; III-V I,* a n d V I - V I I I . A l l o f t h e s e c o m p a ris o n s w e re b e tw e e n "X" an d "Y" t y p e s . The c o m p a ris o n b e tw e e n I a n d V I I I , w h ic h w as n o t s i g n i f i c a n t , was b e tw e e n a n "X" an d a "Y" t y p e . The o t h e r two c o m p a ris o n s t h a t w ere n o n - s i g n i f i c a n t w ere b e tw e e n gam es o.f t h e same t y p e : I I I - V I I I w ere "X" t y p e s j I - V I w e re "Y" ty p e B . The game ty p e s w e re a r r a n g e d i n p a i r s so t h a t o n e game h a d a p a y o f f i n t h e n e e d p o s i t i o n w h ile th e o t h e r game h a d t h e same p a y o f f I n t h e a d v a n ta g e p o s i t i o n . T h re e o f 6 5 „ TABLE 6 t-VALUES OBTAINED EROM COMPARISON OP CORRECT CHOICES IN GAMES I THROUGH V I I I Game I I I I I IV V V I V I I V I I I i 1 .6 3 2 . 75 * 2 . 37 * 2 . 1 7 * 1 . 7 0 0 . 5 7 1 .7 8 i i 2 . 33 * 3 . 1 4 * 0 . 7 1 3 . 26 * 2 . 11 * 1 .1 1 I I I 4 . 9 5 * 2 . 3 5 * 4 . 1 6 * 4 . 0 7 * . 1 . 3 8 X V — 3 . 4 7 * o . 4 i 1 . 4 5 3 . 4 7 * V 2 . 9 5 * 2 . 62 * 0 . 2 7 VI 1 . 2 4 2 . 9 5 * V I I 2 . 4 5 * 1 1 i j i i 1 t i I i * = S i g n i f i c a n t a t . 0 5 l e v e l . the comparisons o f th ese p a irs were n on -B ign ifican t: I-V T Ij I l - V I I I j and IY -V I. The c o m p a riso n b etw een I I I and V was s i g n i f i c a n t , a p p a r e n t l y due t o some s u b j e c t s c h o o sin g th e n e e d i n Game V. T h is , com bined w ith th e d i s i n c l i n a t i o n o f ;th e s u b j e c t s to a g re e on t h e i r s t r a t e g y c h o ic e i n "Y" g a m e s/ ;made i t d i f f i c u l t to d e te rm in e w h e th e r s u b j e c t s w ere d e c i d - ; i ! ■ing on th e b a s i s o f p a y o f f o r s t r a t e g y l a b e l s . The t r e n d , I I ihow ever, a p p e a r s to be i n f a v o r o f assu m in g t h a t m ost su b - i I j e c t s f a v o r e d p a y o f f s o v e r l a b e l s a s th e b a s i s f o r t h e i r 'd e c i s i o n s . Of th e t w e n t y - e i g h t c o m p a ris o n s made i n T a b le 6 , o n ly two c o m p a ris o n s b e tw een "X" games an d one b etw een "Y" !games w ere s i g n i f i c a n t a t t h e .0 5 l e v e l j b u t f o u r t e e n com- ! p a r is o n s b e tw e e n "X" and "Y" games w ere s i g n i f i c a n t . When :th e t o t a l num ber o f e ac h s u b j e c t 's c o r r e c t c h o ic e s i n a l l i " X " games w ere com pared t o th e num ber o f c o r r e c t c h o ic e s i n a n gam es, t h e t v a lu e o f 3 .2 2 was s i g n i f i c a n t a t th e 1 J .0 5 l e v e l . One e x p l a n a t i o n f o r t h i s m ig h t be t h a t a l a r g e num b e r o f s u b j e c t s i n t e r p r e t e d w in n in g w i t h two judgeB to b e ^ c o rr e c t i n a l l gam es. T h e r e f o r e , t h e d e c i s i o n o f th e e x p e r i m e n t e r to l a b e l i t i n c o r r e c t i n some games w ould h a v e jpro d u ced an a r t i f i c i a l s i t u a t i o n . How ever, r e s u l t s o f th e ;M X" and "Y" sc o re B , w hich a r e exam ined b e lo w , g iv e r e a s o n s ito d o u b t t h i s . 6r" A n a l y s i s o f T o u rn a m e n ts I n o r d e r to d e te r m i n e w h e th e r a n y o f t h e d i f f e r e n c e s o f c h o i c e s m ig h t b e due to e x p e r i e n c e g a in e d from p l a y i n e a r l i e r m o v es, th e e x p e r i m e n t e r l i s t e d th e num ber o f c o r r e c t c h o i c e s made by e a c h s u b j e c t i n e a c h to u r n a m e n t, aB i n d i c a t e d i n T a b le J , a n d th e n co m p ared t h e r e s u l t s o f e ac h } e i g h t - r o u n d to u rn a m e n t w i t h t h e r e s u l t s o f e a c h o t h e r t o u r - nam ent. The r e s u l t s a r e sum m arized i n T a b le 8 . Of th e t w e n t y - e i g h t c o m p a ris o n s , o n ly e i g h t w e re s i g n i f i c a n t . Two o f th e s e c o m p a ris o n s i n v o l v e d th e e i g h t h to u rn a m e n t and t h e r e s t i n v o l v e d t h e s e v e n th to u r n a m e n t. The s e v e n th t o u r n a m ent was com posed o f s i x "Y" a n d two "X" gam es. The e i g h t h to u rn a m e n t i n v o l v e d f o u r o f e a c h . T h is I n d i c a t e s t h a t th e s u b j e c t s d i d n o t m o d ify t h e i r b e h a v i o r a s a r e s u l t o f e x p e r i e n c e w ith t h e gam e. E ach s u b j e c t a p p a r e n t l y a d o p te d a s t r a t e g y e a r l y a n d h e ld to i t . The e x c e p ti o n t o t h i s was a g r o u p o f ’'m a x im iz e rs " whose b e h a v i o r w i l l b e d i s c u s s e d b e lo w . A n a ly s is o f S e q u e n t i a l Games The e x p e r i m e n t e r a l s o ex am in e d t h e p l a y i n s e q u e n t i a l gam es. T h ere w e re e l e v e n I n s t a n c e s w here gam es o f th e same t y p e o c c u r r e d i n c o n tig u o u s r o u n d s . S ix o f th e s e q u e n t i a l gam es w ere "X” ty p e and f i v e w ere "Y" t y p e s . I n o r d e r t o com pare t h e s e gam es, t h e e x p e r i m e n t e r c a l l e d f i r s t p l a y o f t h e f i r s t f i v e "X" gam es IX , an d t h e seco n d p l a y o f t h e f i r s t f i v e "X" games 2X. The l a s t "X" p l a y 6 8 TABUE 7 SUBJECTS' CORRECT CHOICES IN EACH EIGHT ROUND TOURNAMENT T o u rn a m e n t SB 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 1 4 8 8 8 8 7 8 8 2 4 3 6 5 5 4 2 4 3 5 8 8 8 6 4 2 3 4 3 6 5 3 4 2 4 5 3 5 3 6 6 2 5 6 5 2 2 2 4 2 5 4 7 4 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 3 7 6 8 8 4 2 4 9 6 4 5 5 2 7 5 5 10 7 4 3 4 4 6 6 11 5 5 3 4 5 2 4 12 6 2 3 1 4 5 5 4 8 7 7 6 3 3 3 2 14 3 4 5 3 2 3 - 4 4 15 5 6 2 3 3 3 6 3 16 6 7 4 8 5 6 6 4 17 3 6 6 7 8 4 2 4 18 4 3 6 5 5 3 2 4 19 8 7 6 8 5 7 7 7 20 4 4 2 3 5 3 2 5 21 3 4 6 5 5 4 2 4 22 7 8 3 5 8 8 6 5 23 2 5 4 5 6 4 4 5 24 5 3 6 5 5 4 2 4 25 5 4 5 3 6 4 2 3 26 5 7 7 5 5. 4 2 4 27 5 5 5 3 5 7 4 4 28 3 3 6 5 5 4 2 4 29 5 2 6 4 4 5 4 4 30 8 6 7 6 7 5 4 4 31 3 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 32 7 7 5 5 7 7 8 7 33 7 7 6 6 5 4 2 4 34 2 2 0 0 0 2 6 4 35 8 8 8 8 7 8 8 8 36 6 3 6 5 6 4 2 4 69 I I TABLE 8 t-VALUES OBTAINED FROM COMPARISON OF CORRECT CHOICES IN TOURNAMENTS 1 THROUGH 8 T ournam ent 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 1 1 .0 3 0 .7 5 0 .0 0 0 .4 5 0 .9 9 2 . 23* 0 .9 0 2 0 .8 0 0 .2 2 0 .4 5 0 .7 1 2 .4 8 * 3 .2 3 * 3 1 .3 7 0 .4 4 1 .2 2 2 .4 5 * 1 .7 8 4 0 .6 8 0 .5 1 1 .9 8 * 0 .9 7 5 1 .2 2 2 .0 4 * 1 .8 4 6 2 .4 8 * 0 .8 1 7 2 . 88* * = S i g n i f i c a n t a t .05 l e v e l . 70 w as d ro p p e d . T hen th e f i r s t "X" p l a y w as d ro p p e d a n d th e f i r s t p l a y o f t h e "Xn s e q u e n t i a l gam es two th r o u g h s i x was c a l l e d I X '; t h e se c o n d p l a y o f t h e same s e t was c a l l e d 2 X '. : The f i r s t p l a y o f t h e f i v e "Y" gam es w as c a l l e d 1Y; t h e s e c o n d p l a y o f t h e f i v e "Y" gam es w as c a l l e d 2Y. The c o r r e c t c h o ic e s i n t h e s e p l a y s w ere th e n com pared w i t h e a c h j o t h e r . The r e s u l t s can h e se e n i n T a b le 9 . Of f i f t e e n ! i c o m p a r is o n s , n i n e w ere s i g n i f i c a n t a t t h e ,0 5 l e v e l . E ig h t i o f t h o s e d i f f e r e n c e s w ere b e tw e e n nX" a n d "Y" g a m e s. S u r p r i s i n g l y , t h e r e w as l i t t l e ch an g e b e tw e e n t h e f i r s t and s e c o n d p l a y s o f t h e same game t y p e . A p p a r e n tly , t h e s u b j e c t ' s o r i g i n a l c h o ic e w as m a i n t a i n e d i n th e f o l lo w in g move. I |The d i f f e r e n c e b e tw e e n t h e "X" an d "Y" gam es th e n i s a r e f l e c t i o n o f a num ber o f s u b j e c t s a t t e m p t i n g to w in w i t h two j u d g e s . 1 i | A n a l y s i s o f S u b j e c t s ' "X" a n d "Y1 1 S c o re s i T h is c a n b e se e n i n t h e b reak d o w n o f s u b j e c t s a c c o r d i n g to t h e i r "X" and "Y" s c o r e s i n T a b le 10. The s u b j e c t s who m ax im ized c l e a r l y f o llo w e d a s t r a t e g y o f w in n in g w i t h two ju d g eB a n d b e i n g i n d i f f e r e n t a s to how t h e y l o s t . O nly t h r e e s u b j e c t s — 8 , 1 7 , and 3 3 — a p p e a r t o h a v e made some a t t e m p t a t a p p ly in g a m ixed s t r a t e g y . S in c e a s u b j e c t i n t h i s g ro u p h a d a r a n g e o f w in s from f o r t y - o n e to s i x t y - f o u r t o c h o o se fro m , t h e s u b j e c t s s p r e a d o v e r t h e i r e n t i r e p o s s i b l e r a n g e . When t h e to u r n a m e n t ro u n d p l a y i s a n a l y z e d on a B ubgroup b a s i s , Group A i s th e TABLE 9 t-VALUES OBTAINED FROM COMPARISON OP CORRECT CHOICES IN SEQUENTIAL G A M ES^ P la y 2X IX ' 2X 1 - 1Y 2Y IX 0 .1 3 1 .0 0 0 .7 0 3- 18* 3 -4 1 * 2X O .3 6 2 . 10* 2 . 48* 3 .1 5 * IX T 0 .4 6 3. 17* 3 .3 7 * 2X 1 3 .3 4 * 4 .4 4 * 1Y 0 .3 4 aix = F i r s t p l a y i n S e q u e n ti a l "X" games 1 - 5 . 2X = Second p l a y i n S e q u e n ti a l "X" games 1 - 5 . IX ' = F i r s t p l a y i n S e q u e n ti a l "X" games 2- 6 . 2X 1 = Second p l a y i n S e q u e n ti a l nX " games 2 - 6 . 1Y = F i r s t p l a y i n S e q u e n ti a l M y 1 1 games 2Y = Second p l a y i n S e q u e n ti a l lly 1 1 games • * = S i g n i f i c a n t a t .0 5 l e v e l . 72 I TABLE 10 ! I CLASSIFICATION OF SUBJECTS BY "X" AND "Y" SCORES ! AND EXPERIMENTAL WIN-LOSS RECORD N "X" "X" N "Y" tiY" D e b a te s Ju d g e s Ss C o r r e c t S c o re C o r r e c t S c o re Won L o s t Won L o s t A. S u b j e c t s M axim izing W ins (N=13) 2 32 +32 1 +30 63 1 127 65 24 32 +32 2 +28 62 2 126 66 18 31 +28 1 +30 62 2 125 67 28 30 +24 2 +28 60 4 122 70 4 28 +16 4 +24 56 8 116 76 25 28 +16 4 +24 56 8 116 76 36 29 +20 7 +18 54 10 115 77 26 30 +24 9 +14 53 11 115 77 5 27 +12 7 +18 • 52 12 111 81 33 29 +20 12 + 8 49 15 110 82 _ H 21 25 + 4 8 +16 49 15 106 86 8 29 +20 13 + 6 48 16 109 83 17 25 + 4 15 + 2 42 22 99 93 B, S u b j e c t s M in im izin g Wins (N=9) 3 28 +16 16 - 0 44 20 104 88 16 26 + 8 20 - 8 38 26 96 96 30 26 + 8 21 -1 0 37 27 95 97 1 30 +24 29 -2 6 33 31 95 97 7 30 +24 29 -2 6 33 31 95 97 31 30 +24 29 -2 6 33 31 95 97 19 28 +16 27 -2 2 33 31 93 99 32 27 +12 26 -2 0 33 31 92 100 35 31 +28 32 - 3 2 31 33 94 98 73 TABLE 10— C o n tin u e d Ss N "X" C o r r e c t "X" K "Y" S core C o r r e c t M y I t S core D e b a te s Won L o s t J u d g e s Won L o s t C. S u b je c ts W inning I n e f f i c i e n t l y (N=6) 23 20 -1 6 15 + 2 37 27 89 103 20 16 -3 2 12 + 8 36 28 84 108 12 16 -32 14 + 4 34 30 82 110 14 14 -40 14 + 4 32 32 78 114 6 12 -48 14 + 4 30 34 74 118 34 3 -84 13 + 6 22 42 57 135 D. S u b je c ts G am bling on W ins (N==8) 11 16 -3 2 18 - 4 30 34 78 114 29 16 -3 2 18 - 4 30 34 78 114 13 18 -24 21 -10 29 35 79 113 22 23 - 4 27 -2 2 28 36 83 109 9 17 -2 8 22 -1 2 27 37 76 116 27 16 -3 2 22 -1 2 26 38 74 118 10 15 -3 6 22 -1 2 25 39 72 120 15 2 -88 29 -2 6 5 59 39 153 \ i i i i Yh o n ly one to show a s i g n i f i c a n t d i f f e r e n c e b e tw ee n th e f i r s t and se co n d h a l f o f th e e x p e r im e n t. A p p a r e n tly , th e s e t h i r t e e n s u b j e c t s d is c o v e r e d t h a t t h e i r o p p o n e n t was n o t f o l lo w in g th e b e s t p o s s i b l e s e l e c t i o n o f a rg u m e n ts i n o r d e r to a v o id d e f e a t . They r e s p o n d e d b y s e e k in g to c a p i t a l i z e on t h a t w e ak n e ss and w in a s much aB p o s s i b l e . The s u b j e c t s i n Group B a p p e a re d to be f o llo w in g a p u re s t r a t e g y , w ith th e p o s s i b l e e x c e p tio n o f B u b je c t 3, i and p e rh a p s 16 and 3 0 , who came c l o s e to a m ixed s t r a t e g y . A s u b j e c t who m in im ized c o u ld h av e won a s many a s f o r t y - e i g h t d e b a te s and a s few a s t w e n ty - f o u r . H ow ever, a m ixed s t r a t e g y w ould g u a r a n t e e him f o r t y w in s; a p u r e s t r a t e g y w ould g u a r a n t e e t h i r t y - t w o w in s . C o n s id e rin g t h e l a c k o f ' a s p r e a d a lo n g t h e i r p o t e n t i a l r a n g e , i t a p p e a r s t h a t mem- [ berB o f t h i s g ro u p d i d s e e k to b e h av e i n th e h y p o th e s iz e d m a n n e r, A s u b j e c t c o u ld have won a s few a s s e v e n te e n and | |a s many a s f i f t y - f i v e d e b a t e s an d s t i l l have re m a in e d i n iGroup C. How ever, Group C s u b j e c t s a p p e a r to h av e a d o p te d i a s t r a t e g y o f t r y i n g t o w in h a l f o f b o th "X" an d "Y" gam es. I t I s n o t l i k e l y t h a t t h i s d i f f e r e n c e was due to t h e i r p a t t e r n o f n e e d -a d v a n ta g e c h o ic e s , B lnce s u b j e c t s ch o se t h e n e ed a b o u t 33 tim e s each o r a p p ro x im a te ly h a l f th e tim e . A n o th e r p o s s i b i l i t y was t h a t th e y w ere e n g ag ed in some form o f g am b lin g l i k e Group D, b u t t h a t th e y w ere t r y i n g to h ed g e t h e i r b e t s . I f t h i s game were p la y e d a t a 75 to u rn a m e n t, Group C w ould have a r e c o r d s i m i l a r to Group B 's i n w i n - l o s s te r m s , b u t w ould have won f a r fe w e r ju d g e s . A p p a r e n tly t h e r e i s some d i f f e r e n c e i n th e p r e f e r e n c e o r d e r i o f G roups B and C. S u b j e c t s i n Group D h ad a p o t e n t i a l ra n g e from z e ro to t h i r t y - e i g h t w in s . A gain t h e s u b j e c t s c h o se need a b o u t i h a l f th e tim e . The o n ly t h in g t h a t s e p a r a t e d Group D from ! i Group C was t h e i r te n d e n c y to l o s e "Y" gam es. How ever, f t h i s d o e s n 't a p p e a r to be an a tt e m p t to m in im iz e , i n view o f Group D 's c h o ic e s i n "X" gam es, b u t r a t h e r an a tt e m p t to w in w ith t h r e e ju d g e s . T h is g ro u p w ould r a t h e r lo s e a s p l i t d e c i s i o n th a n w in w ith a s p l i t d e c i s i o n . T h e ir p rim e g o a l seem ed to be " a l l - o r - n o n e ." T h e r e f o r e , t h i s g r o u p 's b e h a v io r seem s b e s t c h a r a c t e r i z e d a s g a m b lin g . i A n a ly s is o f S u b j e c t s ' P r e f e r e n c e L e v e ls | The p r e f e r e n c e s o f th e s u b j e c t s w ere c a l c u l a t e d and j jth e r e s u l t s a r e I n d i c a t e d i n T a b le 11. An i n c o r r e c t "X" o r j i n c o r r e c t "Y" game was c o n s id e r e d a p r e f e r e n c e f o r z e ro i ju d g e s . A c o r r e c t "X" o r c o r r e c t "Y" game was c o n s id e r e d a p r e f e r e n c e f o r one Ju d g e . A c o r r e c t "X" o r an i n c o r r e c t "Y" game w as c o n s id e r e d a p r e f e r e n c e f o r two J u d g e s . An i n c o r r e c t "X" o r a c o r r e c t ”Y" game was c o n s id e r e d a p r e f e re n c e f o r t h r e e ju d g e s . The t o t a l p r e f e r e n c e s f o r a l l s u b j e c t s i n d i c a t e t h a t th e s u b j e c t s p r e f e r r e d w in n in g w i t h two ju d g e s o r l o s - in g w i t h one ju d g e t o w in n in g w i t h t h r e e ju d g e s o r l o s i n g 7 6 i TABLE U i I SIGNIFICANCE OF PREFERENCE LEVELS OBTAINED FROM COMPARISON OF DIFFERENCES OF INDIVIDUAL1S CHOICES5 1 T o t a l (N=36) J u d g e s t V a lu e L e v e l o f C o n f i d e n c e 1 > 0 4 .0 2 .O O l’ 2 > 0 5 .4 5 .0 0 1 0 >3 0 .0 6 n . s . 2 * 1 0 .0 2 n . s . 1 > 3 5 .6 0 .0 0 1 2 > 3 3 .3 1 .0 1 G roup A (N=1 3 ) Group B - y . N -9) t L e v e l o f t L e v e l o f Ju d g e s V a lu e C o n fid e n c e J u d g e s V a lu e C o n fid e n c e 1 > 0 3 -2 3 .0 1 - 1 > 0 9 .6 0 .0 0 1 2 > 0 2 0 .4 4 .0 0 1 2 > 0 1 9 .8 7 .0 0 1 0 > 3 7 .2 3 .0 0 1 3 > 0 5 .3 7 .0 0 1 2 > 1 7 .2 3 .0 0 1 1 > 2 5 .3 7 .0 0 1 1 > 3 2 0 .4 4 .0 0 1 1 > 3 1 9 .8 7 .0 0 1 2 > 3 1 2 .8 8 .0 0 1 2 * 3 2 .2 3 n . s . G roup C (N=6) Group D (N=8) t_ L e v e l o f t L e v e l o f J u d g e s V a lu e C o n fid e n c e J u d g e s V a lu e C o n fid e n c e 0 ^ 1 1 .8 6 n . s . 1 > 0 2 .7 8 .05 0 ^ 2 1 .0 5 n . s . 0 ^ 2 0.29 n . s . 0 > 3 5 .6 0 .01 3 > 0 4 .2 6 .0 1 2 > 1 5 .3 8 .0 1 1 > 2 4 .6 3 .0 1 3 * 1 1 .0 6 n . s . 1 - 3 0 .0 0 n . s . 3 5 :2 0 .0 7 n . s . 3 * 2 2 .3 8 n . s . aA >B m eans A s t r o n g l y d o m in a te s B. A^jB m eans A w e a k ly d o m in a te s B. A ~ B m eans A i s e q u i v a l e n t to B. 1 i I 77 w i t h z e r o j u d g e s . H ow ever, t h e d e g r e e t o w h ic h t h e y a r e i n d i f f e r e n t b e tw e e n two a n d o n e ju d g e s a n d b e tw e e n t h r e e i a n d z e ro j u d g e s i s n o t s t r o n g e n o u g h t o j u s t i f y c o n c l u d in g t h a t t h e o v e r a l l p l a y w as r a t i o n a l . As an a d d i t i o n a l c h e c k , t h e s u b j e c t s ' p r e f e r e n c e s w e re c a l c u l a t e d b y c o m p a rin g t h e t o t a l num ber o f w in n in g f a n d l o s i n g "X" a n d "Y" gam es w i t h t h e e x p e c te d n u m b er o f w in n in g a n d l o s i n g "X" a n d "YM gam es t h a t w ou ld b e p r o d u c e d ; b y an " e q u a l " o r a "m ix e d " s t r a t e g y . An " e q u a l" s t r a t e g y w as c a l c u l a t e d on t h e b a s i s on an e x p e c t e d e q u a l d i s t r i b u t i o n o f w in s a n d l o s s e s . A "m ix ed " s t r a t e g y w as c a l c u l a t e d o n t h e b a s i s o f o p t i m a l s t r a t e g i e s . The r e s u l t s , w h ic h a r e i n d i c a t e d i n T a b le 1 2 , show t h a t t h e s u b j e c t s d i f f e r e d s i g n i f i c a n t l y fro m b o t h t h e e x p e c t e d " e q u a l " a n d "m ix e d " s t r a t e g i e s on an o v e r a l l b a s i s . E a c h g ro u p a l s o d i f f e r e d s i g n i f i c a n t l y fro m t h e e x p e c te d "m ix e d " s t r a t e g i e s . O n ly t h o s e s u b j e c t s who w e re c l a s s i f i e d a s m i n i m i z e r s , i n e f f i c i e n t , o r g a m b le r s d i d n o t d i f f e r s i g n i f i c a n t l y fro m t h e i r e x p e c te d " e q u a l " s t r a t e g y . T h e r e f o r e , i t c an b e c o n c lu d e d t h a t th e s u b j e c t s 1 s t r a t e g i e s d i d n o t c o n fo rm t o t h e h y p o t h e s i z e d s t r a t e g i e s . The c h o i c e s o f G roup A w e re o f f s e t b y t h e c h o i c e s o f G roups C a n d D. H ow ev er, w h a t m ig h t a p p e a r t o b e a n o r m a l d i s t r i b u t i o n o f c h o i c e s d e v e lo p e d i n t o a s i t u a t i o n w h e re d e b a t e r s w e re a t t e m p t i n g t o s e l e c t a rg u m e n ts t h a t s e c u r e d a s m any w in s a s p o s s i b l e . | TABLE 12 I CHI-SQUARE VALUES OBTAINED PROM COMPARISON OP WINS AND LOSSES IN "X" AND "Y" GAMES WITH EXPECTED RESULTS OF "EQUAL" AND MIXED STRATEGIES5 1 i . _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ S u b je c ts X2 V alueB o f Compar i s o n w ith E x p e c te d "E q u a l" S t r a t e g y X2 V a lu e s o f Compar i s o n w ith E x p e c te d "M ixed" S t r a t e g y T o t a l , N=36 6 .4 7 * 3 .9 1 * Group A, N=13 8 . 50* 1 9 6 .3 ^ * Group B, N= 9 0 .8 0 1 29 .96* Group C, N= 6 0 .0 1 1 0 9 . 16* Group D, N= 8 0 .8 3 1 3 9 . 82* * S i g n i f i c a n t a t .0 5 l e v e l . 79 G roup A a t t e m p t e d t o a d j u s t t o t h e B ystem — t h e b a s i c n a t u r e o f t h e gam e— a n d w in e v e r y move w ith two J u d g e s . G ro u p s 0 a n d D a tt e m p t e d t o b e a t t h e s y s te m , a p p a r e n t l y h o p in g t h a t t h e n a t u r e o f p l a y h a d t o c h an g e s o o n e r o r l a t e r . O nly t h e s u b j e c t s I n Group B seem ed to r e c o g n i z e th e n a t u r e o f t h e game a n d s e l e c t e d m in im iz in g s t r a t e g i e s . A n a l y s i s o f E f f e c t o f E x p e r ie n c e and L o c a le The e x p e r i m e n t e r a l s o d e te r m in e d i f t h e s u b j e c t s ' e x p e r i e n c e l e v e l d i f f e r e d s i g n i f i c a n t l y from t h e i r e x p e r i m e n ta l s c o r e s . The s u b j e c t s w ere a r r a n g e d i n g r o u p s o f H ig h , Medium, an d Low E x p e r i e n c e , w i t h an N o f tw e lv e i n e a c h c a t e g o r y . T h ese c a t e g o r i e s w e re t h e n com pared w ith t h e s c o r e s o f G roups A, B, C, and D a n d s u b j e c t e d t o a C h i- S q u a re t e s t . 1 ' The r e s u l t s a r e d e s c r i b e d i n T a b le 13. F i n a l l y , t h e e x p e r i m e n t e r fo u n d no s i g n i f i c a n t d i f f e r e n c e b e tw e e n s u b j e c t s t a k i n g p a r t i n t h e e x p e r im e n t i n one l o c a l e a n d s u b j e c t s t a k i n g p a r t i n t h e e x p e r im e n t i n a n o t h e r l o c a l e . G. M ilto n S m ith , A S i m p l i f i e d G u id e to S t a t i s t i c s f o r P s y c h o lo g y a n d E d u c a tio n "(3rd" e d .V New Y ork; H o lt',' R in e h a r t & W in s to n , 1 9 b 2 ) , p p . 1 2 7 -1 3 3 . 80 TABLE 13 CHI-SQUARE VALUES OBTAINED FROM COMPARISON OP LEVELS OP EXPERIENCE WITH GROUPS A, B, C, D p C a te g o ry ( t l . f . = 6 ) X C om posite e x p e r ie n c e T o t a l y e a r s p l u s num ber o f c o l l e g e w in s Rank b y y e a r s o f c o l l e g e e x p e r ie n c e Rank by y e a r s o f c o l l e g e e x p e r ie n c e Rank by num ber o f c o ll e a g u e s 5 .7 1 n . s . 7 .7 1 n . s . 7 .4 6 n . s . 9 .9 8 n . s . 2 .9 6 n . s . [ CHAPTER V SUM MARY* CONCLUSIONS* AND IMPLICATIONS Summary o f t h e S tu d y T h is s tu d y t e s t e d t h e h y p o t h e s is t h a t : I n communi c a t i o n s i t u a t i o n s s i m i l a r to n - p e r s o n , z e ro -su m games w here p l a y e r s a r e r a t i o n a l * and w here th e y hav e p e r f e c t in f o r m a tio n * o n ly minimum w in n in g a rg u m e n ts w i l l be s e l e c t e d . The h y p o t h e s is s t a t e s t h a t when one o r more p e r s o n s jengage i n a oom m unication s i t u a t i o n t h a t i s s t r i c t l y com- I p e t i t l v e —w hat one p l a y e r l o s e s , a n o th e r w in s — i f th e y p r e f e r g r e a t e r re w a rd s to l e s s e r rew ard s* a n d i f th e y know w hat th e p a y o ffB o r r e s u l t s o f t h e i r own and t h e i r op po n e n t 's s t r a t e g i e s can be* t h e s e p l a y e r s w i l l s e l e c t th o s e s t r a t e g i e s w h ich g u a r a n t e e them minimum w in n in g a rg u m e n ts , i . e . * t h a t th e y a c q u i r e t h e maximum num ber o f Ju d g e s a t th e lo w e s t r i s k p o s s i b l e . I n o r d e r t o t e s t th e r e s e a r c h h y p o t h e s i s , th e f o l lo w in g n u l l h y p o th e s e s w ere f o r m u la te d : 1 . I f s u b j e c t s w ere p r e s e n t e d w i t h games w hich a s k e d them to c h o o se b etw een n e ed and a d v a n ta g e c a s e s , t h e r e w ould be no s i g n i f i c a n t d i f f e r e n c e b etw een s u b j e c t s ' c h o ic e s o f n e e d an d a d v a n ta g e c a s e s . 81 82 2 . I f s u b j e c t s w ere p r e s e n t e d w ith games w ith d i f f e r e n t c o m b in a tio n s o f th e same p a y o f f s , t h e r e w ould be no i s i g n i f i c a n t d i f f e r e n c e b etw een s u b j e c t s ' c h o ic e s i n d i f f e r - j e n t gam es. 3 . I f s u b j e c t s w ere p r e s e n t e d w i t h games o f t h e "X" an d "Y" t y p e s , t h e r e w ould be no s i g n i f i c a n t d i f f e r e n c e b etw een s u b j e c t s ' c h o ic e s i n "X" and "Y" ty p e gam es. ! 4 . I f s u b j e c t s w ere p r e s e n t e d w ith game c h o ic e s ' u n d e r c o n d i t i o n s w h ic h w ould p e r m it them to im p lem en t i n l a t e r moves w hat t h e y h a d l e a r n e d i n e a r l i e r m oves, t h e r e w ould be no s i g n i f i c a n t d i f f e r e n c e b etw een s u b j e c t s ' c h o ic e s i n e a r l i e r and l a t e r m oves. 5 . I f s u b j e c t s ' p r e f e r e n c e l e v e l s w ere c a l c u l a t e d , t h e r e w ould be no s i g n i f i c a n t d i f f e r e n c e b e tw ee n s u b j e c t s w ith p r e f e r e n c e l e v e l s i n th e ra n g e from 1 > 2 > 3 > 0 to 1 ~ 2 > 3 ~ 0 and s u b j e c t s w ith d i f f e r e n t p r e f e r e n c e l e v e l s , 6 . I f s u b j e c t s h ad d i f f e r e n t l e v e l s o f e x p e rie n c e ,- t h e r e w ould be no s i g n i f i c a n t d i f f e r e n c e b e tw ee n th e s u b j e c t s ' l e v e l o f e x p e r ie n c e an d t h e s u b j e c t s ' e x p e r im e n ta l s c o r e s . 7 . I f s u b j e c t s to o k p a r t I n th e e x p e rim e n t i n d i f f e r e n t l o c a l e s , t h e r e w ould be no s i g n i f i c a n t d i f f e r e n c e b e tw ee n th e s c o r e s o f s u b j e c t s who to o k p a r t i n th e e x p e r i m ent i n one l o c a l e a n d th e s c o r e s o f s u b j e c t s who to o k p a r t i n th e e x p e rim e n t I n o t h e r l o c a l e s . 83 The h y p o th e s e s w ere t e s t e d by d e v e lo p in g a game w h ich had f o u r p a y o f f s o r r e s u l t s : z e r o , o n e , tw o, o r t h r e e ju d g e s . The p a y o f f s w ere a r r a n g e d so t h a t th e s u b j e c t s h a d I two c h o ic e s a v a i l a b l e . T hese p a y o f f s w ere th e n r o t a t e d I n a m a tr ix to p r o v id e e i g h t d i f f e r e n t games w here e ac h row and e a c h column c o n ta in e d one way to win and one way to l o s e . < These e i g h t games w ere a s s i g n e d th ro u g h th e u s e o f j a co m p u ter to an E x a m in a tio n B o o k le t w hich c o n ta in e d s i x t y - f o u r m oves— e i g h t p l a y s o f e ac h game ty p e d i v id e d i n t o e i g h t to u rn a m e n ts o f e i g h t ro u n d s e a c h . The s u b j e c t s w ere t h i r t y - s i x m ales who w ere c o n s i d e r e d " n o n - e x p e r t" i n game th e o r y o r r e l a t e d a r e a s . They r e p r e s e n t e d n i n e t e e n s c h o o l s : f i f t e e n from C a l i f o r n i a , one from A riz o n a , one from I d a h o , one from M ontana, and one from N evada. The s u b j e c t s w ere p r e s e n t e d w ith two b a s i c game t y p e s : i n "X" ty p e games s u b j e c t s h a d to c h o o se b etw een one r s t r a t e g y w h ich o f f e r e d a I obb w ith z e ro ju d g e s and a w in w ith t h r e e Ju d g e s and a se c o n d s t r a t e g y w hich o f f e r e d a I ose w ith one j u d g e - - a minimum l o s s — and a win w ith two j u d g e s — a minimum w in . I n "Y" ty p e games t h e s u b j e c t s h ad to choose b e tw ee n one s t r a t e g y w h ich o f f e r e d a l o s s w ith one ju d g e — a minimum l o s s — an d a w in w ith t h r e e ju d g e s , an d a se co n d s t r a t e g y w hich o f f e r e d a l o s s w ith z e ro ju d g e s and a w in w i t h two ju d g e s — a minimum w in . 84 The s u b j e c t s s t a r t e d th e e x p e rim e n t a f t e r a t r i a l ru n o f one "X" an d one U Y" ty p e game. A f t e r th e e x p e rim e n t s t a r t e d , th e s u b j e c t s w ere t o l d a f t e r e a c h ro u n d w hat s t r a t egy t h e i r o p p o n e n t had s e l e c t e d i n th e p r e v i o u s r o u n d . Thus th e s u b j e c t s s t a r t e d e a c h ro u n d w ith p e r f e c t in f o r m a ti o n a b o u t t h e i r o p p o n e n t's p a s t c h o ic e s . An a n a l y s i s o f n e e d an d a d v a n ta g e c h o ic e s showed t h a t t h e r e was a s i g n i f i c a n t d i f f e r e n c e b etw een th e num ber J o f c o r r e c t c h o ic e s o f n e e d and t h e num ber o f c o r r e c t c h o ic e s o f a d v a n ta g e c a s e s . T h ere was a l s o a s i g n i f i c a n t d i f f e r e n c e b e tw e e n t o t a l c h o ic e s o f n e ed and th e t o t a l c h o ic e s o f a d v a n ta g e . I n b o th c a s e s , n e e d s t r a t e g i e s w ere c h o sen s i g n i f i c a n t l y more th a n a d v a n ta g e s t r a t e g i e s . A c o m p a riso n o f c o r r e c t c h o ic e s i n e ac h game ty p e w ith c o r r e c t c h o ic e s i n e a c h o t h e r game ty p e r e v e a l e d t h a t c h o ic e s fo llo w e d t h e w in n in g p a y o f f s . E x c e p t f o r t h r e e c o m p a ris o n s o f gam es o f th e same ty p e w here n e ed p r e f e r e n c e s a f f e c t e d th e c h o i c e s , d e b a t e r s p r e f e r r e d w in n in g to c o n te n t l a b e l s , s i n c e t h e r e was no s i g n i f i c a n t d i f f e r e n c e b etw een m ost "X" games an d no s i g n i f i c a n t d i f f e r e n c e b e tw ee n m ost "Y" gam es. A c o m p a riso n o f t o t a l "x" an d "Y" games i n d i c a t e d t h a t games o f t h e "X" ty p e te n d e d to draw c h o ic e s to th e p a y o f f w ith th e minimum w in an d t h e minimum l o s s , w h ile games o f . t h e "Y" ty p e te n d e d to c a u s e an e q u a l d i s t r i b u t i o n o f c h o ic e s s i n c e t h e maximum w in an d t h e minimum l o s s w ere 85 c o n ta in e d b y one s t r a t e g y , an d t h e minimum win and th e max imum l o s s by th e o t h e r s t r a t e g y . The s e l e c t i o n o f a rg u m e n ts a p p a r e n t l y p o se d no ; j p ro b le m f o r th e s u b j e c t s when th e y h a d a l t e r n a t i v e s t h a t o f f e r e d low r i s k ; b u t a s t h e r i s k f a c t o r i n c r e a s e d th e s u b - ■ J e c t s r e a c t e d w ith d i v e r s e s t r a t e g i e s . C om parison o f th e num ber o f c o r r e c t c h o ic e s i n e a c h ; 1 to u rn a m e n t w ith t h e num ber o f c o r r e c t c h o ic e s i n e a c h o t h e r I to u rn a m e n t r e v e a l e d no s i g n i f i c a n t d i f f e r e n c e s e x c e p t f o r th e s e v e n th to u rn a m e n t, w hich was s i g n i f i c a n t l y d i f f e r e n t from a l l o t h e r to u r n a m e n ts , an d th e se c o n d and e i g h t h t o u r n a m e n ts, w hich w ere s i g n i f i c a n t l y d i f f e r e n t from e a c h o t h e r . The r e s u l t s o f t h e c o m p a riso n s o f th e to u rn a m e n ts i n d i c a t e d t h a t m o st s u b j e c t s d e v e lo p e d t h e i r a p p ro a c h i n th e f i r s t an d se c o n d to u rn a m e n ts and th e n d id l i t t l e to m odify t h e i r a p p ro a c h i n th e f o llo w in g r o u n d s . The a n a l y s i s o f th e d i f f e r e n c e i n p l a y i n e a c h o f th e f o u r g ro u p s betw een th e f i r s t an d th e se c o n d h a l f o f t h e e x p e r im e n t s u p p o r ts t h i s v iew . O nly th e m a x im is e rs showed a s i g n i f i c a n t d i f f e r e n c e i n f i r s t and se co n d h a l f p l a y . T h at d i f f e r e n c e can be a t t r i b u t e d to th e m a x im iz e r s 1 te n d e n c y to a tte m p t to w in "Y" gam es. An e x a m in a tio n o f t h e e le v e n c a s e s w here games o f th e same ty p e o c c u r r e d i n p a i r s r e v e a l e d t h a t t h e r e was a s i g n i f i c a n t d i f f e r e n c e b e tw ee n p l a y i n "XM an d "Y" ty p e gam es. , - 86 An a n a l y s i s o f th e s u b j e c t s ' p r e f e r e n c e s i n d i c a t e d t h a t t h e y d id n o t b e h a v e i n th e h y p o t h e s iz e d m anner. The su b jects were d ivid ed in to groups on the basiB i o f t h e i r r e c o r d s i n "X" and "Y" gam es. T h ir te e n s u b j e c t s w ere c o n s id e r e d " m a x im izers." They won more th a n t h r e e - f o u r t h s o f t h e i r "X" games and I more th a n h a l f o f t h e i r "Y" gam es. The t o t a l p r e f e r e n c e s i o f t h i s g ro u p w ere 2 > 1 > 0 > 3 . ; t N ine s u b j e c t s w ere c o n s id e r e d " m in i m iz e r s ." They won more th a n t h r e e - f o u r t h s o f t h e i r "X" games and l o s t o n e - h a l f o r more o f t h e i r "Y" gam es. The t o t a l p r e f e r e n c e s ^ f t h i s g ro u p w e re: 1 > 2 £ 3 > 0 . T h is i n d i c a t e s t h a t t h i s g ro u p p l a y e d a " p u re " s t r a t e g y o f w in n in g "X" games and l o s i n g "Y" gam es. I f th e y h a d p la y e d a m ixed s t r a t e g y o f 1 / 4 , 3 /4 "X" an d 1 / 2 , 1 /2 "Y ", th e r e s u l t s w ould have b e e n : 1 ~ 2 > 3 ~ 0 . However, o n ly one s u b j e c t showed su c h a p r e f e r e n c e . | S ix s u b j e c t s w ere c o n s id e r e d i n e f f i c i e n t w in n e r s . They won l e s s th a n t h r e e - f o u r t h s o f t h e i r "X" games and more th a n h a l f o f t h e i r "Y" gam es. They t h e r e f o r e i n d i c a t e d a p r e f e r e n c e f o r w in n in g ro u n d s u n d e r r i s k . T h e ir t o t a l p r e f e r e n c e w as: 0 > 3 > 2 > 1 . E ig h t s u b j e c t s w ere c o n s id e r e d g a m b le r s. They won leB S th an t h r e e - f o u r t h s o f t h e i r "X" gam es and l e s s th an h a l f o f t h e i r "Y" gam es. They t h e r e f o r e in d ic a t e d a p r e f e r e n c e f o r 3 > 1 > 0 > 2 , 87 The t o t a l r e s u l t s f o r a l l t h i r t y - s i x s u b j e c t s i n d i c a t e d a p r e f e r e n c e f o r 2 ~ 1 > 3 ~ 0 . H ow ever, when t h e s e s t r a t e g i e s w e re c o m p a red w i t h b o t h t h e e x p e c t e d p u r e a n d m ix e d s t r a t e g i e s , i t becam e e v i d e n t t h a t t h e s u b j e c t s w e re n o t b e h a v in g i n t h e h y p o t h e s i z e d m a n n e r. I F i n a l l y , a c h i - s q u a r e t e s t o f t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p o f i t h e l e v e l o f e x p e r i e n c e w i t h v a r i o u s r a n k i n g s o f t h e s u b - ■ J e c t s b y e x p e r i e n c e f a i l e d to show a n y s i g n i f i c a n t d i f f e r e n c e s . A l s o , a c h i - s q u a r e t e s t o f t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p o f t h e l o c a t i o n o f t h e e x p e r i m e n t w i t h t h e c l a s s i f i c a t i o n o f t h e s u b j e c t s a c c o r d i n g t o t h e i r "X" a n d "Y" s c o r e s w as n o n s i g n i f i c a n t . i i C o n c lu s io n s o f t h e S tu d y The f o l lo w in g c o n c lu s i o n s w ere drawn from t h i s s t u d y : 1 . S u b j e c t s c h o s e n e e d s t r a t e g i e s s i g n i f i c a n t l y m o re t h a n t h e y c h o s e a d v a n ta g e s t r a t e g i e s . f j 2 . S u b j e c t s d i d n o t d i f f e r s i g n i f i c a n t l y i n t h e i r c h o i c e s i n d i f f e r e n t gam es "of t h e same t y p e . S u b j e c t s ' c h o i c e s t e n d e d to f o l l o w w in n in g p a y o f f s . 3 . S u b j e c t s d i f f e r e d s i g n i f i c a n t l y i n t h e i r c h o ic e s i n "X" a n d "Y" t y p e g a m e s. S u b j e c t s t e n d e d t o a d o p t s im i l a r a p p r o a c h e s i n "X" gam es a n d d i f f e r i n g a p p r o a c h e s i n "Y" g a m e s. 88 4 . On an o v e r a l l "b asis, s u b j e c t s d i d n o t d i f f e r s i g n i f i c a n t l y i n c h o ic e s made i n l a t e r moveB from c h o ic e s made i n e a r l i e r m oves. The s u b j e c t s who w ere c l a s s i f i e d a s m a x im iz e rs --G ro u p A—w ere an e x c e p tio n t o t h i s c o n c lu s io n s i n c e th e y d id d i f f e r s i g n i f i c a n t l y b e tw e e n e a r l y an d l a t e r m oves. Group A s u b j e c t s s h i f t e d to a b e h a v io r a p - I p ro a c h o f m ax im iz in g w in s , a p p a r e n t l y a s a r e s u l t o f e x p e ri-! 1 e n ce g a in e d i n e a r l y m oves. 5 . S u b j e c t s d i f f e r e d s i g n i f i c a n t l y b e tw ee n p r e d i c t e d and a c t u a l p r e f e r e n c e l e v e l s . 6 . T here was no s i g n i f i c a n t d i f f e r e n c e b etw een th e s u b j e c t s ' l e v e l s o f e x p e r ie n c e a n d t h e i r e x p e r im e n ta l s c o r e s . 7 . T h ere was no s i g n i f i c a n t d i f f e r e n c e b etw een th e e x p e r im e n ta l s c o r e s o f s u b j e c t s who to o k p a r t i n th e e x p e r i m ent i n one l o c a l e an d th e e x p e r im e n ta l s c o r e s o f s u b j e c t s who to o k p a r t i n th e e x p e rim e n t i n o t h e r l o c a l e s . On t h e b a s i s o f th e above c o n c l u s i o n s , th e e x p e r i - jm enter c o n c lu d e d t h a t t h e r e s e a r c h h y p o t h e s i s had to be r e j e c t e d a s a p r e d i c t o r o f th e b e h a v i o r o f c o l l e g e d e b a t e r s i n th e s e l e c t i o n o f a rg u m e n ts . I m p l i c a t i o n s o f t h e S tu d y F i r s t , th e a p p l i c a t i o n o f game t h e o r y i n t h i s s tu d y p e r m i t t e d t h e e x p e r im e n te r to o f f e r c o l l e g e d e b a t e r s a s e r i e s o f f o r c e d c h o ic e s w hich p r o v i d e d some i n s i g h t s i n t o d e b a t e r s ' b e h a v i o r I n th e s e l e c t i o n o f a rg u m e n ts . The 89 s tu d y d e v e lo p e d games w ith p a y o f f s and ty p e s o f I n f o r m a t io n I s i m i l a r to d e b a te s i t u a t i o n s . However, I t i s p o s s i b l e t h a t j t h e c h o ic e s betw een n eed and a d v a n ta g e s t r a t e g i e s w ere n o t r e a l l y m e a n in g fu l to t h e s u b j e c t s . A I bo, t h e p a p e r p a y o f f s may n o t have b e e n a s m e a n in g fu l to th e s u b j e c t s a s t h e p a y o f f s o f a r e a l to u rn a m e n t. F u r t h e r i n v e s t i g a t i o n w ith d i f f e r e n t p a y o f f s , m ixed J s t r a t e g i e s p la y e d by th e e x p e r im e n te r , v a r y in g am ounts o f ‘ i in fo rm a l..^ „ c o n c e rn in g th e n a t u r e o f th e s t r a t e g y l a b e l s , o r d i f f e r e n t s t r a t e g y l a b e l s m ig h t p ro d u c e more i n s i g h t i n t o th e s e l e c t i o n o f a rg u m e n ts . F o r e x am p le, th e u s e o f jth e games d e v e lo p e d i n t h i s s tu d y w ith a rg u m e n ts r e l a t e d i jto a c u r r e n t d e b a te r e s o l u t i o n m ig h t p r o v id e p e r t i n e n t i n - j jfo rm a tio n a b o u t d e b a t e r s ' a rg u m e n t s e l e c t i o n p r o c e s s e s , | Second, th e s tu d y d e v e lo p e d o p e r a t i o n a l t e c h n iq u e s ! I i t h a t w ere n e e d e d to a p p ly th e m a th e m a tic a l c o n c e p ts o f game j I t h e o r y to th e d e b a te s i t u a t i o n . T h is may b e th e m ost prom i s i n g i m p l i c a t i o n o f t h e s tu d y s in c e i t d e m o n s tr a te s t h a t j b e h a v i o r a l p ro b le m s i n a rg u m e n ta tio n and d e b a te a r e c a p a b le o f b e in g re d u c e d to a fo rm a t t h a t can be s t u d i e d u n d e r l a b o r a t o r y c o n d i t i o n s . I f f u r t h e r e x p e r im e n ta l s t u d i e s u s in g e i t h e r s t a t i c o r dynam ic m od els can p ro d u c e a s u f f i c i e n t b a s e o f d a t a , I t s h o u ld be p o s s i b l e to r e s o l v e p ro b le m s c o n c e rn in g th e b e h a v io r o f c o l l e g e d e b a t e r s . T h ir d , th e s tu d y r a i s e s t h e q u e s t i o n o f w h e th e r s t u d i e s o f d e b a t e r s m ig h t n o t c o n c e a l r e a l d i f f e r e n c e s . I f 90 d i f f e r e n t g ro u p s o f d e b a t e r s a r e p u r s u in g d i f f e r e n t c o u r s e s o f a c t i o n f o r e n t i r e l y d i f f e r e n t m o tiv e s , r e l i a n c e on o v e r a l l r e s u l t s may b e d e c e p t i v e . I s th e b e h a v i o r r e p r e s e n t e d j i by t h e f o u r su b g ro u p s I s o l a t e d i n t h i s s t u d y — th e m a x i- m i s e r s , m in im iz e r s , i n e f f i c i e n t w in n e r s , an d gam b lerB — r e a l l y r e p r e s e n t a t i v e o f t h e way I n w h ic h t h e m a j o r i t y o f i c o l l e g e d e b a t e r s b e h a v e ? F u tu r e s t u d i e s o f d e b a t e r s ' b e - I h a v i o r may hav e t o ta k e I n t o a c c o u n t t h e p o s s i b i l i t y t h a t ’ d e b a t e r s ' m o tiv e s may be q u i t e d i v e r g e n t . F o u r th , t h e s tu d y s u g g e s t s t h a t a tt e m p t s to s e c u r e a u d ie n c e a d a p t a t i o n from d e b a t e r s d ep en d s n o t o n ly on th e ty p e o f a d a p t a t i o n d e s i r e d b u t on th e ty p e o f a d a p t a t i o n th e d e b a t e r i s l i k e l y to h av e i n m ind. F o r e x am p le, i t m ig h t p ro v e u s e f u l to d e te rm in e w hat s t a n d a r d s d e b a t e r s o u g h t to a d j u s t to b e f o r e in f o rm in g d e b a t e r s w hat th e j u d g e 's c r i t e r i a a r e . BIBLIOGRAPHY i W orks jLn Game T h eo ry j B a r t o s , O tom ar J . S im p le M odels o f G roup B e h a v i o r . New l Y o rk : C o lum bia U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1 957. I i ! ! B u c h a n a n , Jam es M ., an d T u ll o c k , G ordon. The C a lc u lu s o f j j C o n s e n t: L o g i c a l F o u n d a tio n s o f C o n s t i t u t i o n a l Democ- | r a c y . Ann A rb o r: U n i v e r s i t y o f M ic h ig a n P r e s s , 1 9 6 2 . D r e s h e r , M e lv in . GameB o f S t r a t e g y : T h eo ry and A p p lic a t i o n s . E nglew ood C l i f f s , New J e r s e y : P r e n t i c e - H a l l , I n c . , 1961. 1 j L u c e , R. D uncan, an d R a l f f a , H ow ard. Games and D e c i s i o n s : | I n t r o d u c t io n and C r i t i c a l S u r v e y . New Y ork: John W ile y & SonB, I n c . , 1957* I ! M cK insey, Jo h n C. C. I n t r o d u c t i o n t o t h e T h eo ry o f G am es. New Y o rk : M cG raw -H ill Book Co., 1952. i 1 ! R a p o p o r t, A n a t o l. T w o-P erson Game T h e o ry : The E s s e n t i a l I d e a s , Ann A rb o r: U n i v e r s i t y o f M ic h ig a n P r e s s , 1956. j ' 1 : ________. F i g h t s , Games, an d D e b a t e s . Ann A rb o r: U n i v e r - | s i 't y o f M ic h ig a n P re s B , 1950'. ; R a p o p o r t, A n a to l, a n d Chammah, A l b e r t M. P r i s o n e r 1s D ile m m a. Ann A rb o r: U n i v e r s i t y o f M ic h ig a n P r e s s , 1955* ; R i k e r , W illia m H. The T h eo ry o f P o l i t i c a l C o a l i t i o n s . New H aven: Y ale' U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1952. } S c h e l l i n g , Thomas C. The S t r a t e g y o f C o n f l i c t . New Y ork : | O x fo rd U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , In c T , 1 9 5 3 . I S h u b ik , M a r tin , e d . Game T h eo ry and R e l a t e d A p p ro a c h e s to ! S o c i a l B e h a v i o r . New Y o rk : Jo h n W ile y & S o n s, I n c . 196 4 . W illia m s , J . D. The C o m p leat S t r a t e g y s t : B e in g a P rim e r on t h e T h e o ry o f Games o f S t r a t e g y . New Y o rk : McGraw- H i l l Book Co., 1954. 92 „ 93 W orks I n S p e e ch A n d e rs e n , K en n eth E . " Q u a n t i t a t i v e R e s e a r c h i n D e h a te ." J o u r n a l o f t h e A m erican F o r e n s i c A s s o c i a t i o n , I I I ( S e p te m b e r, 19bb}, 112-115. : : | A u er, J . J e f f r e y , e d . " D o c to r a l D i s s e r t a t i o n s i n S p e e ch : Work i n P r o g r ' **s, 196 6 ." S peech M o n o g rap h s, XXXIII ( A u g u s t, 1 9 6 6 ), 3 5 6 - 3 6 3 * . " D o c to r a l D i s s e r t a t i o n s i n S p e e c h : Work i n P ro g r e s s , 1965." S p e e ch M on o g rap h s, XXXII (A u g u s t, 1 9 6 5 ) , ' 3 8 5 - 3 9 2 . ; l A u e r, J . J e f f r e y , a n d P i c ' l , M. E . , e d s . " D o c to r a l D i s s e r - i t a t i o n s i n S p e e c h : Work i n P r o g r e s s , 1967." S p eech M on o g rap h s, XXXIV (A u g u s t, 1 9 6 7 ) j 377-383* B a i r d , A, C r a ig . A rg u m e n ta tio n , D i s c u s s i o n , an d D e b a te . New Y o rk : M cG raw -H ill B o o k 'C o ., 195«- B a u e r, O tto P. F u n d a m e n ta ls o f D e b a te : T h eo ry an d P r a c t i c e . C h ic a g o : S c o t t , F oresm an a n d C o ., 1 9 b b . B a u e r, O tto F . , an d C o lb u rn , C. W. "The M a v e ric k J u d g e ." J o u r n a l o f t h e A m erican F o r e n s i c A s s o c i a t i o n , I I I ( J a n u a r y , 1 9 b b ), 2 2 -2 5 . Beckm an, V ernon E . "An I n v e s t i g a t i o n a n d A n a l y s i s o f th e C o n t r i b u t i o n s t o C r i t i c a l T h in k in g Made b y C o u rs e s I n A rg u m e n ta tio n a n d D i s c u s s io n i n S e l e c t e d C o l l e g e s . " U n p u b lis h e d P h .D . d i s s e r t a t i o n , U n i v e r s i t y o f M in n e s o ta , 1 95 6. B e r e l s o n , B e r n a r d , an d S t e i n e r , G a ry . Human B e h a v i o r : An I n v e n t o r y o f S c i e n t i f i c F i n d i n g s . New Y o rk : HarcourTT, B r a c e , an d W o rld , I n c . , 1 9 b 4 . ' B rem beck, W in sto n L. "The E f f e c t s o f a C o u rse i n A rg u m en ta t i o n on C r i t i c a l T h in k in g A b i l i t y . " S p eech M onographs, xvi (1949), 177-189. B ro c k , B e r n a r d . "The C o m p a ra tiv e A d v a n ta g e s C aB e." 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I n d e x a n d T a b le o f C o n t e n t s o f S o u th e r n S p e e c h J o u r n a l , ' 1 9 3 5 -1 9 6 0 , W e s te rn S p e e c h J o u r n a l , 1 9 3 7 -1 9 6 0 , C e n t r a l S p e e c h J o u r n a l^ 1 9 4 9 - 1 9 6 0 , a n d T o d a y 1s S p e e c h , 1 9 5 3 -1 9 6 0 . C e n t r a l S ta te B S p e e ch A s s o c i a t i o n , S p e e c h A s s o c i a t i o n o f t h e E a s t e r n S t a t e s , a n d S o u th e r n S p e e c h A s s o c i a t i o n , 1962. E h n i n g e r , D o u g la s , a n d B r o c k r i e d e , W ayne. D e c i s i o n b y . D e b a t e . New Y o rk : D odd, Mead a n d Co., 1 9 6 3 . E l l i s , Dean S. "An A n a l y s i s o f t h e D i f f e r e n t i a l E f f e c t s o f V a r io u s T y p es a n d D e g re e s o f C o m m u n icatio n O p p o r tu n i t y b e tw e e n G r o u p s ." S p e e ch M o n o g ra p h s, XX X III (A u g u s t, 1966), 2 2 5 - 2 2 0 . F a d e l e y , L. D ean . "The V a l i d i t y o f t h e C o m p a ra tiv e Ad v a n t a g e s C a s e ." J o u r n a l o f t h e A m e ric an F o r e n s i c A s s o c i a t i o n , IV ( W in te r , 1 9 6 7 ) , 2 3 - 3 5 . F a u l e s , Don. " M e a s u rin g R e f u t a t i o n S k i l l : An E x p l o r a t o r y S t u d y ." J o u r n a l o f t h e A m e ric a n F o r e n s i c A s s o c i a t i o n , IV , No. 2 ( S p r i n g , 1 9 5 7 ) , 4 7 - 5 2 . 95 F r e e l e y , A u s tin J . A rg u m e n ta tio n and D e b a te . 2nd e d . B e lm o n t, C a l i f . : W adsw orth P u b l i s h i n g C o ., 1 9 6 6 . G i f f i n , Kim. ,rA S tu d y o f th e C r i t e r i a Em ployed b y T o u rn a m e n t D ebate J u d g e s ." S p eech M onographs, XXVI (M arch, 1959) , 6 9 - 7 1 . ■ G i f f i n , Kim, an d M e g ill, K e n n e th , " S to c k I s s u e s i n T o u rn a m ent D e b a te s ." C e n t r a l S t a t e b Speech J o u r n a l , X II (Autumn, i 9 6 0 ) , 2 7 -3 2 . “ __________. "A S tu d y o f Case C o n s t r u c ti o n i n T ournam ent D e- ! b a t e s . " W este rn S p eech , XXVI, No. 1 (W in te r, 1 9 6 2 ), 5 3 -5 4 . Gow, John E . "T ournam ent D e b a tin g : A Time f o r C h a n g e s ." { J o u r n a l o f t h e A m erican F o r e n s ic A s s o c i a t i o n , IV ( F a l l , I 1 9 b 7 ), 1 0 7 - l i r . Graham, Jo h n . "D an g ers i n D e b a te ." J o u r n a l o f t h e A m eri can F o r e n s ic A s s o c i a t i o n , I I ( S e p tem b er, 1 9 5 5 l7 ~ 9 4 ^ l0 3 ■ H o ld e r, H a ro ld D ., and E h lin g , W illia m P. " C o n s tr u c tio n an d S im u la tio n o f an I n f o r m a tio n - D e c is io n M o d e l." J o u r n a l o f C om m unication, XVII (D ecem ber, 1 9 6 7) , 3 0 2- 3 1 5 . ! H ow ell, W illia m S , "The E f f e c t s o f H igh S c h o o l D e b a tin g on j C r i t i c a l T h in k in g ." S peech M onographs, X (1 9 4 3 ), 9 6 - 1 0 3 . H uber, H o b e rt B. I n f l u e n c i n g th ro u g h A rgum ent. New Y ork: D avid McKay C o ., I n c . , 1963. J a c k s o n , Ted R. "The E f f e c t s o f I n t e r c o l l e g i a t e D e b a tin g on C r i t i c a l T h in k in g A b i l i t y . " U n p u b lish e d P h .D . d i s s e r t a t i o n , U n i v e r s i t y o f W is c o n s in , 1 9 6 1 . J o n e s , S t a n l e y E . " A t t i t u d e C hanges o f P u b lic S p e a k e rs d u r in g t h e I n v e s t i g a t i v e and E x p r e s s iv e S ta g e s o f Advo c a c y ." S p eech M onographs, XXXIII ( J u n e , 1 9 6 6) , 1 3 7 -1 4 6 . Eteele, Reba L. "A S tu d y to D e te rm in e th e A b i l i t y o f De b a t e r s to I d e n t i f y th e E le m e n ts o f A rgum ent. Unpub l i s h e d M a s t e r ’ s t h e s i s , B righam Young U n i v e r s i t y , 1 9 6 6 . X in g , Thomas R . , an d C le v e n g e r, T h eo d o re , J r . "A C om parison o f D eb ate R e s u l t s O b ta in e d b y P a r t i c i p a n t and C r i t i c J u d g i n g ." S o u th e rn S p eech J o u r n a l , XXV ( S p r in g , i 9 6 0 ) , 2 2 3- 2 3 2 . 96 iKnower, F r a n k lin H ., e d . T ab le o f C o n te n ts o f th e Q u a r te r ly J o u r n a l o f S p eech , 1 9 1 5 -1 9 6 4 , S p eech M onographs, 1 9 3 4 - 1964', and The S p eech T e a c h e r , 1 9 5 2 -1 9 6 4 . New York; S p eech A s s o c ia t io n o f A m erica, 1965. , __________ . "G raduate T h e se s: An In d ex o f G raduate Work in I S p eech , XXXIV." S p eech M onographs, XXXIV (A u g u st, 1 9 6 7 ), 3 2 1 -3 7 6 . . "G raduate T h e se s: An In d e x o f G raduate Work in S p ee c h , X X X III." S p eech M onographs (A u g u st, 1966) , 3 0 7 -3 5 5 . ! "G raduate T h ese s: An In d e x o f G raduate Work In ; S p ee c h , XX X II." S p eech M onographs, XXXII (A u g u st, ■ 1 9 6 5 ), 3 3 6 -3 8 4 . ;K ru ger, A rthu r N ., e d . A C l a s s i f i e d B ib lio g r a p h y o f Argu- I m e n ta tio n and D ebated M utchen, N.J.: Scarecrow P r e s s , ; 1 9 0 4 . :K ru ger, A rthu r N. "The C om p arative A d van tages C ase: A D is a d v a n ta g e ." J o u r n a l o f th e A m erican F o r e n s ic A s s o c ia t i o n , I I I (S ep tem b er, 1 9 0 0 J , 1 0 4 -1 1 1 . !_________ . Modern D e b a te : I t s L o g ic and S t r a t e g y . New York: I " M cG raw -H ill Book C o ., 1 9 0 0 . |M aynard, W illia m T. "A Stu d y o f th e R e la tio n o f Tournam ent D e b a tin g E x p e r ie n c e to A cadem ic A ch ievem en t In Law ! S c h o o l." U n p u b lish e d M a s te r 's t h e s i s , U n iv e r s it y o f I K an sas, i 9 6 0 . jM cBath, Jam es H ., e d . A rgu m en tation and D eb a te: P r i n c ip l e s and P r a c t i c e s . R ev. e d . New Y ork: H o lt, R in e h a r t & W in sto n , I n c . , 1963 . 1 M cBurney, Jam es H ., and M i l l s , G len E ., J r . A rgu m en tation and D eb a te: T ech n iq u es o f a F ree S o c i e t y . 2nd e d . New Y ork: The M acm illan C o ., 1 9 6 4 . M cCroskey, Jam es C ., and Camp, Leon R. "A S tudy o f S to c k I s s u e s , J u d g in g C r i t e r i a , and D e c is io n s I n D e b a te ." S o u th e rn S peech J o u r n a l , XXX, No. 2 (W in te r, 1 9 6 4 ), 1 5 8- l b b . _________. "Ju dging C r i t e r i a and J u d g e s 1 B ia s in D e b a te ." J o u r n a l o f th e A m erican F o r e n s ic A s s o c ia t io n , I I I (May, 1 9 6 b ), 5 9 -6 2 . M il l e r , G era ld R ., and N i l s e n , Thomas R ., e d s . P e r sp e c t i v e s on A r g u m e n ta tio n . C h ica g o : S c o t t , Foresm an and Co. , 19b b . 97 M i l l s j G len E . R eason I n C o n tr o v e r s y . B o sto n : A lly n and Bacon., I n c . , 1964. I M o ulton, Eugene R, The Dynam ics o f D e b a te . New Y o rk : H a r c o u r t, B ra c e and W orld, I n c . , 196b- M ulvany, A n n e tte M. "An I n v e s t i g a t i o n o f th e L o g ic a l R ea s o n in g A b i l i t y o f S tu d e n ts A tte n d in g th e 1963 N a t io n a l C o n v e n tio n o f P i Kappa D e l t a . " U n p u b lis h e d M a s t e r ’ s t h e s i s , S o u th e rn I l l i n o i s U n i v e r s i t y , 1964. Murphy, J a c k W ., an d H enB ley, Wayne E . "Do D e b a te rs Know ; When They Win o r L o se?" Speech T e a c h e r, XV, No. 2 (M arch, 1 9 6 6) , 1 4 5 -1 4 7 . N e lso n , Max, e d . " A b s tr a c ts o f D i s s e r t a t i o n s i n th e F i e l d o f S p eech , 1 9 6 6 ." S peech M onographs, XXXIV (A u g u st, 1 9 6 7 ) , 22 1- 3 2 0 , . " A b s tr a c t s o f D i s s e r t a t i o n s i n t h e F i e l d o f S p eech , 1 9 6 5 ." S peech M onographs, XXXIII (A u g u st, 1 9 6 6 ), 2 2 3- 3 0 6 . Newman, R o b e rt P. " A n a ly s is and I s s u e s — A S tu d y o f Doc t r i n e . " C e n t r a l S t a t e s Speech J o u r n a l , X I I I , No. 1 (Autumn, 1 9 6 1 ), 4 3 -5 4 . . "The I n h e r e n t and C o m p ellin g N e e d ." J o u r n a l o f t h e A m erican F o r e n s ic A s s o c i a t i o n , I I (May, 1 9 6 5 ) t 6 b - 7 1 . R a g s d a le , Jam es D ., J r . " E f f e c t s o f S e l e c t e d A s p e c ts o f B r e v i t y on C o m p r e h e n s ib ility and P e r s u a s i v e n e s s ." Un p u b l is h e d Ph.D . d i s s e r t a t i o n , U n i v e r s i t y o f I l l i n o i s , 1964. R o e v e r, Jam es E . , and G i f f i n , Kim. "A S tu d y o f t h e Use o f J u d g in g C r i t e r i a i n T ournam ent D e b a te ." AFA R e g i s t e r , V I I I (W in te r, i 9 6 0 ) , 1 3 . S h e a r e r , Ned A ., an d H aberm an, F r e d e r i c k W ., e d s . "A B ib l io g r a p h y o f R h e to r ic a n d P u b lic A ddresB f o r th e Y ear 1 9 6 6 ." S peech M onographs, XXXIV (A u g u s t, 1 9 6 7) , 187- 220. "A B i b lio g r a p h y o f R h e to r ic an d P u b lic A d d re ss f o r th e Y e a r 1 9 6 5 ." S peech M onographs, XXXIII (A u g u st, 1966), 187- 2 2 2. S m ith , Raymond G. " R h e to r i c , E x p e rim e n ta l R e s e a r c h , and Men o f Good W i l l . " S o u th e rn S peech J o u r n a l , XXX, No. 1 ( F a l l , 1 9 6 4 ), 8 -1 4 ,_______ 98 S w in n e y , Jam es P . "The R e l a t i v e C o m p re h e n sio n o f C ontem po r a r y T o u rn a m e n t D e b a te S p e e c h e s , 1 1 J o u r n a l o f t h e A m e ri- c a n F o r e n s i c A s s o c ia t io n ,, V, No. 1 (W in te r”, l'9bb')V l b - 2SZ ! I Tame, E lw ood R . "An A n a l y t i c a l S tu d y o f t h e R e l a t i o n s h i p s 1 b e tw e e n A b i l i t y i n C r i t i c a l T h in k in g a n d A b i l i t y i n C o n t e s t D e b a te an d D i s c u s s i o n . " U n p u b lis h e d P h .D . d i s - = s e r t a t i o n , U n i v e r s i t y o f D e n v e r, 1 9 5 8 . T hom pson, Wayne N. Q u a n t i t a t i v e R e s e a r c h i n P u b l i c A d d r e s s a n d C om m unication"! New Y o rk : Random H o u se , I n c . ,' I 98YV j T o u lm in , S te p h e n E . The U s e s o f A rg u m e n t. L ondon: Cam- j b r i d g e U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1 958. : T u c k e r , Raymond K. "C o m p u ter S i m u l a t i o n s a n d S i m u l a t i o n Gamest T h e i r P l a c e i n t h e S p e e ch C u r r i c u l u m ." S p e e ch T e a c h e r , X V I II (M arch , 1 9 6 8 ) , 1 2 8 -1 3 3 . V e r d e r b e r , R u d o lp h . J u d g e B 1 C r i t e r i a a n d D e b a t e r A d a p ta t i o n : E m p i r i c a l E v i d e n c e ." J o u r n a l o f t h e A m erican F o r e n s i c A s s o c i a t i o n , V , No. 1 ( W i n t e r , 1 9 b 8 ) , 2 8 - 3 0 . W e ld e n , T e r r y A. "A C o n g r u i t y P r e d i c t i o n o f A t t i t u d e Change fro m D e b a te W in -L o ss R e c o r d ." J o u r n a l o f t h e A m e ric a n F o r e n s i c A s s o c i a t i o n , I I I ( May, 1 9 b b ) , 4 8 - 5 2 . W h i t t a k e r , Ja m e s 0 . " P e r c e p t i o n a n d Ju d g m e n t I n t h e P o l i t i c a l E x t r e m i s t . " J o u r n a l o f C o m m u n ic a tio n , X V II ( J u n e , 1 9 6 7 ) ; 1 3 6 - 1 4 1 . W i l l i a m s , D o n a ld E . "The E f f e c t s o f T r a i n i n g i n C o lle g e D e b a tin g on C r i t i c a l T h in k in g A b i l i t y . " U n p u b lis h e d M a s te r * s t h e s i s , P u rd u e U n i v e r s i t y , 1951* W i l l i a m s , F r e d e r i c k , and-W ebb, S a l l y A nn. " F a c t o r s i n De b a t e E v a l u a t i o n : A P i l o t S t u d y ." C e n t r a l S t a t e s S p e e c h J o u r n a l , XV (May, 1 9 6 4 ) , 1 2 6 -1 2 8 . W in d e s, R u s s e l R . , a n d H a s t i n g s , A r t h u r . A r g u m e n ta tio n a n d A d v o c a c y . New Y o rk : Random H o u se, I n c . , 1 9 6 6. 99 Works i n S t a t i s t i c s S m ith , G. M ilto n . A S i m p l i f i e d G uide t o S t a t i s t i c s f o r P s y c h o lo g y a n d E d u c a t i o n . 3 r d e d . New Y o rk : H o l t , ' R i n e h a r t & W in s to n , i n c . , 1 9 6 2 . W a lk er, H elen M ., and L ev , J o s e p h . S t a t i s t i c a l I n f e r e n c e . New Y ork: H o lt , R in e h a r t & W in ston * trie".', 1953* 1 I I APPENDIX QUESTIONNAIRE AND INSTRUCTION BOOKLET 100 | NUMBER. ! NAM E AGE ADDRESS CITY' STATE ZIP SEX M F SCHOOL CLASS YEAR (P R ., SOPH., ETC.) NUM BER OP YEARS OP HIGH SCHOOL DEBATE EXPERIENCE NUM BER OP YEARS OP COLLEGE DEBATE EXPERIENCE NUM BER OP DEBATE COLLEAGUES YOU HAVE HAD NAM E OP YOUR CURRENT DEBATE COLLEAGUE ! H O W LONG HAVE YOU DEBATED WITH YOUR CURRENT COLLEAGUE i I W H A T IS YOUR APPROXIMATE HIGH SCHOOL DEBATE RECORD W L_ i W HAT IS YOUR APPROXIMATE COLLEGE DEBATE RECORD W _ 101 ] JLUc: THE NATURE OP YOUR CHOICES O N THE FOLLOWING PAGES YOU WILL BE PRESENTED A N U M BER OF SITUATIONS W H ER E YOU M UST CHOOSE BETWEEN T W O STRATE GIES IN ORDER TO WIN A DEBATE. YOUR OPPONENT ALSO HAS A SIMILAR CHOICE TO MAKE. IN ORDER TO HELP YOU BOTH M A K E I YOUR CHOICE, YOU EACH HAVE INFORMATION SIMILAR TO THE FOL- | LOW ING AVAILABLE T O YOU I ; TOURNAM ENT 1 ROUND 1 i * NEGATIVE ! (YOUR OPPONENT) STRATEGY A STRATEGY B 'AFFIRMATIVE N O NEED DISADVANTAGE (YOU) CASE CASE STRATEGY 1 - NEED CASE STRATEGY 2 - ADVANTAGE CASE m CHOICE OF STRATEGY IS (CHECK ONLY ONE) - ! |STRATEGY 1 - NEED STRATEGY 2 - ADVANTAGE____________ j |M 5 f REASON FOR W CHOICE I S - j THE RESULTS OF THE ROUND ARE DETERMINED BY THE IN - j iTERSECTION OF THE STRATEGY PICKED BY YOUR OPPONENT AND THE ‘ STRATEGY YOU PICK, EACH GAIN M A D E BY YOU IS EQUAL TO YOUR [OPPONENT'S LOSS AND VICE VERSA. THE FIRST NUM BER IN EACH BOX INDICATES THE RESULTS THAT YOU W O U LD GET IF YOUR STRATEGIES INTERSECTED AT THAT [POINT, THE SECOND NUM BER IN EACH BOX— THE NUMBERS IN ( ) — ‘ INDICATES THE RESULT THAT YOUR OPPONENT W O ULD GET IN THE EVENT THAT YOUR STRATEGIES INTERSECTED AT THAT POINT. FOR EXAMPLE, IF YOU CHOSE A NEED CASE AND YOUR OPPONENT CHOSE A |N O NEED CASE, YOU GOT 0 JUDGES AND HE GOT 3 JUDGES. H O W EVER, IF YOU CHOSE A NEED CASE AND YOUR OPPONENT CHOSE A DISADVANTAGE CASE, YOU GOT 3 JUDGES AND HE GOT 0 . O N THE jO TH ER HAND, IF YOU CHOSE AN ADVANTAGE CASE AND YOUR OPPONENT j CHOSE A N O NEED CASE YOU GOT 2 JUDGES AND HE GOT 1 JUDGE. !IF YOU CHOSE AN ADVANTAGE CASE AND YOUR OPPONENT CHOSE A ^DISADVANTAGE CASE, YOU GOT 1 JUDGE AND HE GOT 2 . j INDICATE YOUR CHOICE THEN TURN THE PAGE AND EXAMINE 'ANOTHER SITUATION TO SEE W H A T YOU W OULD DO. o (3) 3 (0) 2 (1) 1 (2) :IN THE PREVIOUS ROUND YOUR OPPONENT CHOSE STRATEGY A - NO NEED CASE TOURNAMENT 1 ROUND 2 [AFFIRMATIVE ! (YOU) STRATEGY 1 - NEED CASE STRATEGY 2 - ADVANTAGE CASE NEGATIVE (YOUR OPPONENT) STRATEGY A NO NEED CASE STRATEGY B DISADVANTAGE CASE 2 (1) 0 (3) 1 (2) 3 (0) m CHOICE OF STRATEGY I S (CHECK ONLY ONE) - STRATEGY 1 - NEED STRATEGY 2 - ADVANTAGE MI REASON FOR MI CHOICE I S - YOUR CHOICE OPPONENT'S CHOICE YOU GOT NEED NEED ADVANTAGE ADVANTAGE NO NEED d isa d v a n t a g e NO NEED DISADVANTAGE 2 JUDGES 0 JUDGES 1 JUDGE 3 JUDGES OPPONENT GOT 1 JUDGE 3 JUDGES 2 JUDGES 0 JUDGES N O W THE SCORE I S KEPT \ 1 . WHETHER YOU WIN O R LOSE A ROUND, YOU RECEIVE [THE NUMBER OF VOTES THAT COMES FROM THE INTERSECTION OF iYOUR CHOICE AND YOUR OPPONENT'S CHOICE. 2 . YOUR RECORD WILL BE DETERMINED ON THE BASIS OF FIR ST, YOUR WIN-LOSS RECORD, SECOND, THE TOTAL NUMBER OF JUDGES W H O VOTE FOR YOU. 1 IN THE PREVIOUS ROUND YOUR OPPONENT CHOSE STRATEGY A - | NO NEED CASE PROCEDURAL R U L E S------- 1 . COMPLETE EACH ROUND BEFORE YOU GO ON TO THE NEXT ONE, DO NOT SKIP ANY ROUNDS. i 2. THIS EXERCISE WILL TAKE ABOUT SIXTY MINUTES, i THEREFORE, YOU SHOULD ALLOW ABOUT ONE MINUTE FOR EACH ROUND. I F YOU FINISH THE BOOKLET BEFORE TIME IS CALLED, :RAISE YOUR HAND AND THE PROCTOR WILL COLLECT IT FROM YOU. 3 . DO NOT COMMUNICATE WITH ANYONE BUT THE PROCTOR !DURING THIS EXERCISE. 4 . I F YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS ABOUT ANY OF THESE INSTRUCTIONS PLEASE RAISE YOUR HAND NOW. STOP DO NOT CONTINUE UNTIL YOU ARE TOLD TO DO SO

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Creator Keil, Charles Richard (author)

Core Title An Experimental Study Of An Application Of Game Theory To The Selection Of Arguments By College Debaters

Degree Doctor of Philosophy

Degree Program Speech

Publisher University of Southern California (original), University of Southern California. Libraries (digital)

Tag language, rhetoric and composition,OAI-PMH Harvest

Language English

Contributor Digitized by ProQuest (provenance)

Advisor Dickens, Milton (committee chair), McBath, James H. (committee chair), Smith, Robert A. (committee member)

Permanent Link (DOI) https://doi.org/10.25549/usctheses-c18-369512

Unique identifier UC11361887

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Legacy Identifier 6919379.pdf

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Document Type Dissertation

Rights Keil, Charles Richard

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Source University of Southern California (contributing entity), University of Southern California Dissertations and Theses (collection)

Access Conditions The author retains rights to his/her dissertation, thesis or other graduate work according to U.S. copyright law. Electronic access is being provided by the USC Libraries in agreement with the au...

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