University of Southern California Dissertations and Theses

The Prediction Of General And Differential Achievement In Two Samples Of Junior College Students

(USC Thesis Other)

The Prediction Of General And Differential Achievement In Two Samples Of Junior College Students

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Content T his d isse rta tio n has been 62-1324
m ic ro film e d exactly as received
McADAMS, H enry Edw ard, 1929-
THE PREDICTION O F GENERAL AND D IF F E R
ENTIA L ACHIEVEMENT IN TWO SAMPLES O F
JUNIOR COLLEGE STUDENTS.
U niversity of Southern C alifornia
Ph.D ., 1961
Education, psychology
University Microfilms. Inc., Ann Arbor, Michigan
THE PREDICTION OP GENERAL AND DIFFERENTIAL
ACHIEVEMENT IN TWO SAMPLES OF
JUNIOR COLLEGE STUDENTS
b y
H e n r y E d w a rd McAdams
A D i s s e r t a t i o n P r e s e n t e d t o t h e
FACULTY OF THE GRADUATE SCHOOL
UNIVERSITY OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
I n P a r t i a l F u l f i l l m e n t o f t h e
R e q u i r e m e n t s f o r t h e D e g r e e
DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY
( E d u c a t i o n )
A u g u s t 1961
UNIVERSITY O F S O U T H E R N C A LIFO R N IA
GRADUATE SCH OOL
UNIVERSITY RARK
LOS A N G ELES 7 . C A LIFO R N IA
This dissertation, •written by
..Henry.. Edward.. Me Adams....................
under the direction of hX&...Dissertation Com
mittee, and approved by all its members, has
been presented to and accepted by the Graduate
School, in partial fulfillment of requirements
for the degree of
D O C T O R OF P H I L O S O P H Y
Dean
Date / # £ /
DISSERTATION CO TTEE
s&l.kju.ftis
I Chairman
TABLE OP CONTENTS
Chapter Page
I . INTRODUCTION ................................................................................ 1
I I . SUMMARY OP SELECTED LITERATURE CONCERNING
SCHOLASTIC PREDICTION ........................................................ 13
I I I . PSYCHOLOGICAL TESTS USED IN THIS RESEARCH
PROJECT .............................................................................................. 30
IV . AN ANALYSIS OP THE SAMPLE ............................................ 56
V. PROCEDURE ....................................................................................... 7^
V I . A REPORT OF THE FINDINGS IN DIFFERENTIAL
SCHOLASTIC PREDICTION FOR THE SAMPLE
FROM JUNIOR COLLEGE "A" .................................................. 95
V I I . A REPORT OF THE FINDINGS IN DIFFERENTIAL
SCHOLASTIC PREDICTION FOR THE SAMPLE
FROM JUNIOR COLLEGE "B" .................................................. 140
V I I I . A REPORT OF THE FINDINGS IN GENERAL
SCHOLASTIC PREDICTION ....................................................... l 8 6
IX . SUMMARY, CONCLUSIONS, AND RECOMMENDATIONS . 195
BIBLIOGRAPHY ........................................................................................................... 223
L IS T OF TABLES
Table Page
I . R e l i a b i l i t y C o e f f i c i e n t s f o r t h e Iow a
T e s t s o f E d u c a tio n a l D ev elo p m en t ..................... 46
I I . I n t e r c o r r e l a t i o n s b e t w e e n T e s t s i n t h e
ITED, Form Y ............................................................................... 53
I I I . An A n a l y s i s o f t h e Two S a m p le s b y H ig h
S c h o o l A t t e n d e d a n d b y J u n i o r C o l l e g e
S e l e c t e d .......................................................................................... 5 8
IV . M e a s u r e s o f C e n t r a l T e n d e n c y a n d
V a r i a b i l i t y f o r t h e A m e r ic a n C o u n c i l o n
E d u c a t i o n P s y c h o l o g i c a l E x a m i n a t i o n f o r
C o l l e g e F r e s h m e n , 1 9 5 2 E d i t i o n ............................ 60
V. C r i t i c a l R a t i o s B a s e d o n D i f f e r e n c e s
b e t w e e n t h e Mean S c o r e s f o r J u n i o r
C o l l e g e s "A" a n d r,B M o n t h e ACE, t h e ITED,
a n d H ig h S c h o o l C u m u l a t i v e G ra d e P o i n t
A v e r a g e s f o r C o l l e g e P r e p a r a t o r y C o u r s e s . 63
V I . M e a s u r e s o f C e n t r a l T e n d e n c y a n d
V a r i a b i l i t y o n t h e ITED f o r t h e S am p le
from J u n io r C o lle g e "A” ................................................ 64
V T I. M e a s u r e s o f C e n t r a l T e n d e n c y a n d
V a r i a b i l i t y o n t h e ITED f o r t h e S a m p le
f ro m J u n i o r C o l l e g e "B" ................................................ 65
V T I I . Mean S c o r e s o n t h e ITED f o r A l l S e c o n d
S e m e s t e r T w e l f t h G ra d e S t u d e n t s A t t e n d i n g
L o s A n g e l e s C i t y S e n i o r H ig h S c h o o l s I n
t h e S p r i n g T erm s o f 195 4 a n d 1 9 5 6 .................... 67
IX . M e a s u r e s o f C e n t r a l T e n d e n c y a n d
V a r i a b i l i t y f o r G ra d e P o i n t A v e r a g e s
B a s e d o n M arks R e c e i v e d I n S i x A r e a s o f
C o l l e g e P r e p a r a t o r y S u b j e c t M a t t e r :
S a m p le f ro m J u n i o r C o l l e g e "A" ............................ 70
V
Table Page
X. M e a s u r e s o f C e n t r a l T e n d e n c y a n d
V a r i a b i l i t y f o r G rad e P o i n t A v e r a g e s
B a s e d o n MarkB R e c e i v e d I n S i x A r e a s o f
C o l l e g e P r e p a r a t o r y S u b j e c t M a t t e r :
Sam ple fro m J u n i o r C o l l e g e "B" ............................ 71
X I. The S u b j e c t M a t t e r C o n t e n t f o r E a c h o f
t h e N in e A r e a s o f U n i v e r s i t y P a r a l l e l
C o u r s e W o r k ................................................................................ 82
X I I . The D i s t r i b u t i o n o f D i f f e r e n c e s b e tw e e n
G rad e P o i n t A v e r a g e s f o r S t u d e n t s i n t h e
S am ple fro m J u n i o r C o l l e g e "A" ............................ 87
X I I I . The D i s t r i b u t i o n o f D i f f e r e n c e s b e tw e e n
G rad e P o i n t A v e r a g e s f o r S t u d e n t s i n t h e
S am ple fro m J u n i o r C o l l e g e "B" ............................ 88
XIV. P e a r s o n C o e f f i c i e n t s o f C o r r e l a t i o n
b e tw e e n G rad e P o i n t A v e r a g e s an d C r i t i c a l
R a t i o s R e p r e s e n t i n g t h e S i g n i f i c a n c e o f
T h e s e C o e f f i c i e n t s : J u n i o r C o l l e g e "A" . . 90
XV. P e a r s o n C o e f f i c i e n t s o f C o r r e l a t i o n
b e tw e e n G rad e P o i n t A v e r a g e s a n d C r i t i c a l
R a t i o s R e p r e s e n t i n g t h e S i g n i f i c a n c e o f
T h e s e C o e f f i c i e n t s : J u n i o r C o l l e g e "B M . . 91
XVI. An E x p l a n a t i o n o f A b b r e v i a t e d T i t l e s f o r
P r e d i c t o r s U sed I n D i f f e r e n t i a l
S c h o l a s t i c P r e d i c t i o n ..................................................... 95
X V II. D i s t r i b u t i o n o f t h e 160 P e a r s o n
C o e f f i c i e n t s o f C o r r e l a t i o n C om puted I n
t h e S t u d y o f D i f f e r e n t i a l S c h o l a s t i c
P r e d i c t i o n a t J u n i o r C o l l e g e nAH ....................... 97
X V III. C o e f f i c i e n t s o f C o r r e l a t i o n b e tw e e n
S e l e c t e d P r e d i c t o r s C o n s i d e r e d t o Be
Q u a n t i t a t i v e I n C o n t e n t a n d Two C r i t e r i a
B a s e d o n D i f f e r e n c e s b e tw e e n L i n g u i s t i c
an d Q u a n t i t a t i v e -S u b je c t M a t t e r A r e a s . . . . 114
Table
XIX.
XX.
XXI.
XXII.
X X III.
XXIV.
XXV.
XXVI.
C o e f f i c i e n t s o f C o r r e l a t i o n b e tw e e n
S e l e c t e d P r e d i c t o r s C o n s id e r e d t o Be
L i n g u i s t i c i n C o n te n t and Two C r i t e r i a
B a se d o n D i f f e r e n c e s b e tw e e n L i n g u i s t i c
an d Q u a n t i t a t i v e S u b j e c t N a t t e r A re a s . . . .
J u n i o r C o l le g e "A": P e a r s o n C o r r e l a t i o n s
b e tw e e n S i n g l e P r e d i c t o r s and D i f f e r e n c e s
I n Grade P o i n t A v e ra g e s f o r C o u rs e s i n th e
S o c i a l S t u d i e s and t h e C om m unicative A r t s
(N, 308) .....................................................................................
J u n i o r C o lle g e "A": P e a r s o n C o r r e l a t i o n s
b e tw e e n S i n g l e P r e d i c t o r s and D i f f e r e n c e s
i n G rade P o i n t A v e ra g e s f o r C o u rs e s i n th e
S o c i a l S t u d i e s and t h e P h y s i c a l S c i e n c e s
(N, 115) ......................................................................................
J u n i o r C o lle g e "A” : P e a r s o n C o r r e l a t i o n s
b e tw e e n S i n g l e P r e d i c t o r s and D i f f e r e n c e s
i n G rade P o i n t A v e ra g e s f o r C o u rs e s i n th e
S o c i a l S t u d i e s and t h e P in e A r t s (N, 1 1 5 ).
J u n i o r C o lle g e "A": P e a r s o n C o r r e l a t i o n s
b e tw e e n S i n g l e P r e d i c t o r s an d D i f f e r e n c e s
i n G rade P o i n t A v e ra g e s f o r C o u rs e s i n th e
C om m unicative A r t s and t h e P h y s i c a l
S c i e n c e s (N, 112) ..............................................................
J u n i o r C o lle g e "A": P e a r s o n C o r r e l a t i o n s
b e tw e e n S i n g l e P r e d i c t o r s and D i f f e r e n c e s
i n G rade P o i n t A v e ra g e s f o r CourseB i n th e
C om m unicative A r t s and t h e F in e A rtB
(N, 109) .....................................................................................
J u n i o r C o lle g e "A": P e a r s o n C o r r e l a t i o n s
b e tw e e n S i n g l e P r e d i c t o r s and D i f f e r e n c e s
i n Grade P o i n t A v e ra g e s f o r C o u rse s i n th e
S o c i a l S t u d i e s an d t h e M a th e m a tic s
(N, 100) ........................................ .............................................
J u n i o r C o lle g e "A ": P e a r s o n C o r r e l a t i o n s
b e tw e e n S i n g l e P r e d i c t o r s and D i f f e r e n c e s
i n Grade P o i n t A v e ra g e s f o r C o u rs e s i n th e
S o c i a l S t u d i e s an d t h e F o r e i g n L an g u a g es
(N, 92) ........................................................................................
vi
Page
116
118
119
120
121
122
123
124
v i i
T a b le
XXVII.
X X V III.
XXIX.
XXX.
XXXI.
XXXII.
XXXIII.
J u n i o r C o l l e g e " A " : P e a r s o n C o r r e l a t i o n s
b e tw e e n S i n g l e P r e d i c t o r s a n d D i f f e r e n c e s
i n G rad e P o i n t A v e r a g e s f o r C o u r s e s i n t h e
C o m m u n ic a tiv e A r t s a n d t h e F o r e i g n
L a n g u a g e s (N, 8 7 ) ................................................................
J u n i o r C o l l e g e "A ": P e a r s o n C o r r e l a t i o n s
b e t w e e n S i n g l e P r e d i c t o r s a n d D i f f e r e n c e s
i n G rade P o i n t A v e r a g e s f o r C o u r s e s i n t h e
C o m m u n ic a tiv e A r t s a n d t h e M a t h e m a t i c s
(N, 85) ...........................................................................................
J u n i o r C o l l e g e "A ": P e a r s o n C o r r e l a t i o n s
b e tw e e n S i n g l e P r e d i c t o r s a n d D i f f e r e n c e s
i n G rade P o i n t A v e r a g e s f o r C o u r s e s i n t h e
P h y s i c a l S c i e n c e s a n d t h e M a th e m a tic s
(N, 80) ...........................................................................................
The I n c r e a s e i n P r e d i c t i v e E f f i c i e n c y
A c h ie v e d b y E a c h I n d e x o f F o r e c a s t i n g
E f f i c i e n c y B a se d o n a M u l t i p l e C o e f f i c i e n t
o f C o r r e l a t i o n When t h e L a r g e s t I n d e x o f
F o r e c a s t i n g E f f i c i e n c y f o r t h e Same
C r i t e r i o n B a s e d o n a T w o - v a r i a b l e
C o e f f i c i e n t o f C o r r e l a t i o n Was S u b t r a c t e d
fro m I t ...........................................................................................
The I n c r e a s e A c h ie v e d b y E a c h C o e f f i c i e n t
o f M u l t i p l e D e t e r m i n a t i o n S t a t e d a s a
P e r c e n t a g e o v e r t h e L a r g e s t C o e f f i c i e n t
o f D e t e r m i n a t i o n f o r t h e Same C r i t e r i o n
S t a t e d a s a P e r c e n t a g e (100R 2 - 1 0 0 r 2 ) . . .
J u n i o r C o l l e g e "A": M u l t i p l e
C o e f f i c i e n t s o f C o r r e l a t i o n b e tw e e n Two o r
More P r e d i c t o r s a n d D i f f e r e n c e s i n G rade
P o i n t A v e r a g e s ........................................................................
J u n i o r C o l l e g e "A ": B e ta W e ig h ts f o r t h e
R e s p e c t i v e P r e d i c t o r s i n F o u r M u l t i p l e
R e g r e s s i o n E q u a t i o n s I n v o l v i n g C r i t e r i a
B a s e d o n D i f f e r e n c e s I n G rade P o i n t
A v e r a g e s ........................................................................................
Page
125
126
127
130
132
134
136
v i i l
T a b le
XXXIV.
XXXV.
XXXVI.
XXXVII.
XXXVIII.
XXXIX.
XL.
XLI.
D i s t r i b u t i o n o f t h e 192 P e a r s o n
C o e f f i c i e n t s o f C o r r e l a t i o n Computed i n
t h e S tu d y o f D i f f e r e n t i a l S c h o l a s t i c
P r e d i c t i o n a t J u n i o r C o lle g e W B” ................
Page
C o e f f i c i e n t s o f C o r r e l a t i o n b e tw e e n
S e l e c t e d P r e d i c t o r s C o n s id e r e d t o Be
Q u a n t i t a t i v e i n C o n te n t and T h re e C r i t e r i a
B a se d o n D i f f e r e n c e s b e tw e e n L i n g u i s t i c
and Q u a n t i t a t i v e S u b j e c t M a t t e r A re a s . . . .
C o e f f i c i e n t s o f C o r r e l a t i o n b e tw e e n
S e l e c t e d P r e d i c t o r s C o n s id e r e d t o Be
L i n g u i s t i c i n C o n te n t a n d T h re e C r i t e r i a
B ased o n D i f f e r e n c e s b e tw e e n L i n g u i s t i c
and Q u a n t i t a t i v e S u b j e c t M a t t e r A re a s . . . .
J u n i o r C o lle g e " B " : P e a r s o n C o r r e l a t i o n s
b e tw e e n S i n g l e P r e d i c t o r s a n d D i f f e r e n c e s
i n G rade P o i n t A v e ra g e s f o r C o u rs e s i n t h e
S o c i a l S t u d i e s and t h e C om m unicative A r t s
(N, 449) .....................................................................................
J u n i o r C o lle g e " B " : P e a r s o n C o r r e l a t i o n s
b e tw e e n S i n g l e P r e d i c t o r s an d D i f f e r e n c e s
i n G rade P o i n t A v e ra g e s f o r C o u rse s i n th e
S o c i a l S t u d i e s and t h e M a th e m a tic s
(N, 148) ....................................................................................
J u n i o r C o lle g e " B " : P e a r s o n C o r r e l a t i o n s
b e tw e e n S i n g l e P r e d i c t o r s and D i f f e r e n c e s
i n G rade P o i n t A v e ra g e s f o r C o u rs e s i n th e
C om m unicative A r t s and t h e M a th e m a tic s
(N, 135) .....................................................................................
J u n i o r C o lle g e " B " : P e a r s o n C o r r e l a t i o n s
b e tw e e n S i n g l e P r e d i c t o r s and D i f f e r e n c e s
I n G rade P o i n t A v e ra g e s f o r C o u rs e s i n t h e
S o c i a l S t u d i e s and t h e F in e A r t s (N, 1 3 4 ).
J u n i o r C o lle g e " B " : P e a r s o n C o r r e l a t i o n s
b e tw e e n S i n g l e P r e d i c t o r s and D i f f e r e n c e s
i n G rade P o i n t A v e ra g e s f o r C o u rs e s i n th e
S o c i a l S t u d i e s an d th e F o r e i g n L an g u a g es
(N, 127) ......................................................................................
142
160
162
163
164
165
166
167
I x
Table
X L II.
X L I I I .
XLIV.
XLV.
XL VI.
XLVII.
XL V I I I .
J u n i o r C o l le g e "B” : P e a r s o n C o r r e l a t i o n s
b e tw e e n S i n g l e P r e d i c t o r s a n d D i f f e r e n c e s
i n Q rade P o i n t A v e ra g e s f o r C o u r s e s i n t h e
C o m m u n ic ativ e A r t s and t h e P in e A r t s
(N, 124) .......................................................................................
J u n i o r C o l le g e " B " : P e a r s o n C o r r e l a t i o n s
b e tw e e n S i n g l e P r e d i c t o r s a n d D i f f e r e n c e s
i n Q rade P o i n t A v e ra g e s f o r C o u r s e s i n t h e
S o c i a l S t u d i e s an d t h e P h y s i c a l S c i e n c e s
(N, 122) ..........................................................................
J u n i o r C o l le g e " B " : P e a r s o n C o r r e l a t i o n s
b e tw e e n S i n g l e P r e d i c t o r s a n d D i f f e r e n c e s
i n G rade P o i n t A v e ra g e s f o r C o u rs e s i n t h e
P h y s i c a l S c i e n c e s and t h e M a th e m a tic s
(N, 114) .......................................................................................
J u n i o r C o l le g e "B" : P e a r s o n C o r r e l a t i o n s
b e tw e e n S i n g l e P r e d i c t o r s a n d D i f f e r e n c e s
i n Q rade P o i n t A v e ra g e s f o r C o u rs e s i n t h e
C o m m u n icativ e A r t s a n d t h e P h y s i c a l
S c i e n c e s (N, 112) ..............................................................
J u n i o r C o lle g e M B " : P e a r s o n C o r r e l a t i o n s
b e tw e e n S i n g l e P r e d i c t o r s a n d D i f f e r e n c e s
i n Q rade P o i n t A v e r a g e s f o r C o u r s e s i n t h e
C o m m u n ic ativ e A r t s a n d t h e F o r e i g n
L a n g u a g e s (N, 106) ............................................................
J u n i o r C o l le g e " B " : P e a r s o n C o r r e l a t i o n s
b e tw e e n S i n g l e P r e d i c t o r s an d D i f f e r e n c e s
i n G rade P o i n t A v e ra g e s f o r C o u rs e s i n t h e
S o c i a l S t u d i e s a n d i n B u s i n e s s (N, 95) . . .
J u n i o r C o l l e g e " B " : P e a r s o n C o r r e l a t i o n s
b e tw e e n S i n g l e P r e d i c t o r s a n d D i f f e r e n c e s
i n G rade P o i n t A v e r a g e s f o r C o u r s e s i n t h e
S o c i a l S t u d i e s a n d i n S e c r e t a r i a l S c i e n c e
(N, 90) .........................................................................................
Page
168
169
170
171
172
173
174
X
T a b le
XL IX.
L.
L I.
L I I .
L I I I .
LIV.
LV.
LVI.
The I n c r e a s e I n P r e d i c t i v e E f f i c i e n c y
A c h ie v e d b y E ach I n d e x o f F o r e c a s t i n g
E f f i c i e n c y B ased on a M u l t i p l e C o e f f i c i e n t
o f C o r r e l a t i o n When t h e L a r g e s t I n d e x o f
F o r e c a s t i n g E f f i c i e n c y f o r t h e Sane
C r i t e r i o n B ased o n a T w o - v a r i a b l e
C o e f f i c i e n t o f C o r r e l a t i o n Was S u b t r a c t e d
f r o n I t ....................................................................
The I n c r e a s e A c h ie v e d by E ach C o e f f i c i e n t
o f M u l t i p l e D e t e r m i n a t i o n S t a t e d a s a
P e r c e n t a g e o v e r t h e L a r g e s t C o e f f i c i e n t
o f D e t e r m i n a t i o n f o r t h e Same C r i t e r i o n
S t a t e d a s a P e r c e n t a g e (100R2 - 1 0 0 r 2 ) . . .
J u n i o r C o lle g e " B " : M u l t i p l e
C o e f f i c i e n t s o f C o r r e l a t i o n b e tw e e n Two o r
More P r e d i c t o r s and D i f f e r e n c e s I n Grade
P o i n t A v e ra g e s .....................................................................
J u n i o r C o lle g e " B " : B e ta W e ig h ts f o r t h e
R e s p e c t i v e P r e d i c t o r s I n N ine M u l t i p l e
R e g r e s s i o n E q u a t io n s I n v o l v i n g C r i t e r i a
B ased on D i f f e r e n c e s I n G rade P o i n t
A v e ra g e s .....................................................................................
C o e f f i c i e n t s o f C o r r e l a t i o n b e tw e e n S i n g l e
P r e d i c t o r s and S t u d e n t s ' C u m u la tiv e G rade
P o i n t A v e ra g e s f o r U n i v e r s i t y P a r a l l e l
C o u rs e s C om pleted a t J u n i o r C o lle g e "A" . .
C o e f f i c i e n t s o f C o r r e l a t i o n b e tw e e n S i n g l e
P r e d i c t o r s and S t u d e n t s ’ C u m u la tiv e G rade
P o i n t A v e ra g e s f o r U n i v e r s i t y P a r a l l e l
C o u rs e s C om p leted a t J u n i o r C o lle g e "B" . .
The S i g n i f i c a n t T w o - v a r i a b l e R e l a t i o n s h i p s
I n v o l v i n g D i f f e r e n t i a l C r i t e r i a W hich Were
O b ta in e d i n B o th J u n i o r C o lle g e S am p les . .
D i f f e r e n t i a l C r i t e r i a w i t h W hich C e r t a i n
P r e d i c t i v e V a r i a b l e s C o r r e l a t e d
S i g n i f i c a n t l y i n B o th J u n i o r C o lle g e
S am ples ........................................................................................
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Table Page
L V I I . J u n i o r C o l l e g e " B " : P r e d i c t o r s a n d
C r i t e r i a f o r t h e T w o - v a r i a b l e
R e l a t i o n s h i p s i n W h ic h t h e D e g r e e o f
P r e d i c t i v e E f f i c i e n c y E q u a l l e d o r E x c e e d e d
F i v e P e r C e n t i n E x c e s s o f C h a n c e ...................... 2 16
L V I I I . J u n i o r C o l l e g e " B " : P r e d i c t o r s a n d
C r i t e r i a f o r t h e M u l t i - v a r i a b l e
R e l a t i o n s h i p s i n W h ic h t h e D e g r e e o f
P r e d i c t i v e E f f i c i e n c y E q u a l l e d o r E x c e e d e d
F i v e P e r C e n t i n E x c e s s o f C h a n c e ...................... 217
L IX . S e l e c t e d I n f o r m a t i o n R e g a r d i n g T h r e e
G r o u p s o f P r e d i c t o r s U sed t o F o r e c a s t
D i f f e r e n t i a l C r i t e r i a ....................................................... 2 1 9
CHAPTER I
INTRODUCTION
P r e d i c t i o n h a s b e c o m e a n i n t e g r a l p a r t o f w e s t e r n
c u l t u r e . I t s p e r v a s i v e i n f l u e n c e i s s e e n d a i l y a s
p e o p l e c o n s t a n t l y a d j u s t t h e i r b e h a v i o r i n a n t i c i p a t i o n
o f c e r t a i n c o n s e q u e n c e s . A b e f u d d l e d h o u s e w i f e may b e
f o u n d c h e c k i n g h e r r e c i p e b o o k g a t h e r i n g h i n t s on how t o
p r e p a r e t h e b a t t e r f o r a s u c c e s s f u l c a k e . A c r a f t y
c o l l e g e s t u d e n t may b e s e e n s t u d y i n g p r e v i o u s
e x a m i n a t i o n s t r y i n g t o a s c e r t a i n t h e t y p e s o f q u e s t i o n s
a n i n s t r u c t o r i s l i k e l y t o a s k . I n b o t h e x a m p l e s ,
h o w e v e r , t h e p a r t i c i p a n t s h o p e t o r e d u c e t h e e l e m e n t o f
c h a n c e a n d t o p r e d i c t a m o re f a v o r a b l e o u tc o m e f o r
t h e m s e l v e s a s t h e r e s u l t o f b e h a v i o r a l m o d i f i c a t i o n s .
T he i m p a c t o f p r e d i c t i o n on t h e f i e l d o f e d u c a t i o n
h a s b e e n g r e a t . I t s I n f l u e n c e c a n b e s e e n i n many
p l a c e s , e . g . , i n s c h o o l s o f e d u c a t i o n w h e r e i n r e c e n t
y e a r s , c u r r i c u l a r r e v i s i o n s h a v e b e e n m ade t o
i n c o r p o r a t e c o u r s e s i n g u i d a n c e a n d s t a t i s t i c s ; i n
c o l l e g e a n d u n i v e r s i t y a d m i s s i o n s p r a c t i c e s w i t h t h e
a c c e p t a n c e o f t e s t i n g p r e r e q u i s i t e s ; a n d I n p u b l i c
s c h o o l c u r r i c u l u m p l a n n i n g w i t h t h e a d o p t i o n o f
h o m o g e n e o u s g r o u p i n g s . I n a l l c a s e s , t h e p u r p o s e o f
t h e s e m ovem ents h a s b e e n t o m in im iz e t h e i n f l u e n c e o f
c h a n c e and t o im prov e t h e p r e d i c t a b i l i t y o f a c h i e v i n g
d e s i r e d e d u c a t i o n a l g o a l s .
The s t u d y a b o u t w h ic h t h i s p a p e r i s w r i t t e n was
c o n c e r n e d w i t h e d u c a t i o n a l p r e d i c t i o n . I t i s h oped t h a t
t h e r e s u l t s may p ro v e t o b e b e n e f i c i a l t o e d u c a t o r s a t
t h e s e c o n d a r y and t h e t e r t i a r y 1 l e v e l s i n t h e g u id a n c e
o f t h e i r s t u d e n t s .
I . PROBLEM
The p ro b le m in t h i s s t u d y was t o d e te r m i n e how w e l l
g r a d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s b a s e d on h i g h s c h o o l m ark s i n
c o l l e g e p r e p a r a t o r y s u b j e c t s , r e s u l t s o f t h e A m erican
C o u n c il on E d u c a tio n P s y c h o l o g i c a l E x a m in a tio n f o r
C o l le g e F reshm en ( 1 0 0 ) , and s c o r e s on t h e Iowa T e s t s o f
E d u c a t i o n a l D ev elo pm ent (98) c o u ld p r e d i c t , i n o r d e r o f
i m p o r t a n c e , e a c h o f t h e f o l l o w i n g c r i t e r i a o f s c h o l a s t i c
s u c c e s s among s t u d e n t s a t two Los A n g e le s J u n i o r
c o l l e g e s :
1. D i f f e r e n c e s b e tw e e n g r a d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s
a c h i e v e d i n e a c h o f n i n e J u n i o r c o l l e g e
s u b j e c t m a t t e r a r e a s ;
-
A r e l a t i v e l y new te rm s e r v i n g t o d i s t i n g u i s h
J u n i o r c o l l e g e e d u c a t i o n fro m s e c o n d a r y and h i g h e r
e d u c a t i o n .
2 . C u m u l a t i v e g r a d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s f o r a l l c o u r s e
w o rk o f a u n i v e r s i t y p a r a l l e l s t a t u s c o m p l e t e d
i n J u n i o r c o l l e g e .
S u b - p r o b l e m s
F o r c o n v e n i e n c e i n I d e n t i f i c a t i o n , t h e tw o p h a s e s
o f t h e t o t a l p r o b l e m c i t e d I n t h e p r e c e d i n g p a r a g r a p h
w e re l a b e l l e d d i f f e r e n t i a l a n d g e n e r a l , r e s p e c t i v e l y .
The I m p o r t a n c e o f t h e l a t t e r t o t h e s t u d y w as c l e a r l y
s e c o n d a r y t o t h a t o f t h e f o r m e r .
1 . D i f f e r e n t i a l s c h o l a s t i c p r e d i c t i o n . The
p r o b l e m I n t h i s c a s e was t o p r e d i c t f o r
t w e n t y - t w o c r i t e r i a , r a t h e r t h a n f o r a s i n g l e
c r i t e r i o n . T h e s e c r i t e r i a w e re t h e d i f f e r e n c e s
b e tw e e n g r a d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s a c h i e v e d I n e a c h
o f n i n e J u n i o r c o l l e g e s u b j e c t m a t t e r a r e a s ,
P r e d i c t o r s w e r e : S c o r e s on t h e Q u a n t i t a t i v e
a n d t h e L i n g u i s t i c s e c t i o n s o f t h e ACE, s c o r e s
on t h e n i n e t e s t s o f t h e ITED, a n d g r a d e p o i n t
a v e r a g e s i n f i v e h i g h s c h o o l s u b j e c t m a t t e r
a r e a s . The f o l l o w i n g c o m p u t a t i o n s w e re m ade:
P e a r s o n c o r r e l a t i o n s b e tw e e n e a c h o f t h e
s i x t e e n p r e d i c t o r s a n d e a c h o f t h e t w e n t y - t w o
c r i t e r i a ; m u l t i p l e c o r r e l a t i o n s b e tw e e n e a c h
c r i t e r i o n a n d t h e b e s t c o m b i n a t i o n o f t h o s e
4
p r e d i c t o r s w h ich had c o r r e l a t e d s i g n i f i c a n t l y
w ith i t a t t h e f i v e p e r c a n t l e v e l o f
c o n f i d e n c e o r b e t t e r ; a n d , m u l t i p l e r e g r e s s i o n
e q u a t i o n s f o r t h i r t e e n o f t h e tw e n ty - tw o
p r e d i c t o r - c r i t e r i o n r e l a t i o n s h i p s .
2 . G e n e r a l s c h o l a s t i c p r e d i c t i o n . By c o n t r a s t ,
t h e p ro b le m h e r e was t o p r e d i c t a g r o s s
c r i t e r i o n w i t h o u t c o n s i d e r a t i o n f o r s p e c i f i c
s u b j e c t m a t t e r i n g r e d i e n t s , i . e . , a c u m u l a t i v e
g r a d e p o i n t a v e r a g e f o r a l l j u n i o r c o l l e g e
c o u r s e work in u n i v e r s i t y p a r a l l e l c o u r s e s .
P r e d i c t o r s w ere t h e ACE T o t a l S c o r e , t h e ITED
C om p o site S c o r e , and t h e c u m u l a t i v e g r a d e
p o i n t a v e r a g e f o r c o l l e g e p r e p a r a t o r y s u b j e c t s
t a k e n in h ig h s c h o o l . T h ese c o m p u t a t i o n s w ere
made: P e a rs o n c o r r e l a t i o n s b e tw e e n eac h
p r e d i c t o r and t h e c r i t e r i o n ; a m u l t i p l e
c o r r e l a t i o n b e tw e e n t h e b e s t c o m b in a tio n o f a l l
t h r e e p r e d i c t o r s and t h e c r i t e r i o n ; a n d , a
m u l t i p l e r e g r e s s i o n e q u a t i o n .
I I . SCOPE OF THE STUDY
B e c a u se t h e s t u d y in v o lv e d c o n t a c t s w i t h two
e d u c a t i o n a l l e v e l s , d e l i m i t a t i o n s w ere o r g a n i z e d
5
a c c o r d i n g l y . On t h e s e c o n d a r y l e v e l , t h e I n v e s t i g a t i o n
was c o n f i n e d t o s t u d e n t s who c o u l d s a t i s f y t h e f o l l o w i n g
c o n d i t i o n s :
1 . A t t e n d a n c e a t a L os A n g e le s c i t y s e n i o r h i g h
s c h o o l f o r a t l e a s t f o u r s e m e s t e r s , tw o o f
w h ic h h a d t o b e i n t w e l f t h g r a d e s t a n d i n g , a n d
t h e l a s t o f w h ic h h a d t o b e i n e i t h e r t h e
s p r i n g s e m e s t e r , 1 9 5 4 , o r t h e s p r i n g s e m e s t e r ,
1 9 5 6 .
2 . G r a d u a t i o n fro m a L os A n g e le s c i t y s e n i o r h i g h
s c h o o l w i t h e i t h e r t h e s p r i n g c l a s s , 1 9 5 4 , o r
t h e s p r i n g c l a s s , 1 9 5 6 .
3 . A v a i l a b i l i t y o f h i g h s c h o o l c o u r s e m a rk s f o r a l l
w o rk c o m p l e t e d i n L os A n g e le s c i t y s e n i o r h i g h
s c h o o l s .
4 . A v a i l a b i l i t y o f c o m p l e t e s c o r e s f o r t h e Iow a
T e s t s o f E d u c a t i o n a l D e v e lo p m e n t t a k e n a s
s e c o n d s e m e s t e r t w e l f t h g r a d e s t u d e n t s d u r i n g
e i t h e r t h e w i n t e r , 1 9 5 4 , o r t h e w i n t e r , 1 9 5 6 ,
a d m i n i s t r a t i o n s I n Los A n g e le s c i t y s e n i o r h i g h
s c h o o l s .
On t h e t e r t i a r y l e v e l , t h e s t u d y w as r e s t r i c t e d t o
tw o J u n i o r c o l l e g e s I n t h e L os A n g e le s C i t y S c h o o l s
D i s t r i c t . At t h i s l e v e l , s t u d e n t s h a d t o m e e t t h e
f o l l o w i n g c o n d i t i o n s :
1 . I n i t i a l e n r o l l m e n t a t one o f t h e two J u n i o r
c o l l e g e s e i t h e r d u r i n g t h e summer s e s s i o n s ,
1954 o r 1 9 5 6 , o r d u r i n g t h e f a l l s e m e s t e r s o f
t h e same y e a r s .
2 . E n r o l l m e n t i n one o f t h e s e i n s t i t u t i o n s f o r a t
l e a s t two s e m e s t e r s , n o t n e c e s s a r i l y
c o n s e c u t i v e l y .
3 . A v a i l a b i l i t y o f c o m p le te s c o r e s f o r t h e
A m erican C o u n c il on E d u c a t i o n P s y c h o l o g i c a l
E x a m in a tio n f o r C o l l e g e F re sh m e n , 1952
E d i t i o n , a d m i n i s t e r e d t o a l l e n t e r i n g fre s h m e n
a t b o t h s c h o o l s .
4 . A v a i l a b i l i t y o f a l l g r a d e s r e c e i v e d w h i l e
a t t e n d i n g e i t h e r j u n i o r c o l l e g e .
5. C o m p le tio n o f a t l e a s t two c o u r s e s , t o t a l i n g
a minimum o f f o u r s e m e s t e r u n i t s , i n e a c h o f
two o r m ore s u b j e c t m a t t e r a r e a s ( a t o t a l o f
n i n e s u b j e c t m a t t e r a r e a s w e re a v a i l a b l e ) .
I I I . PURPOSE AND IMPORTANCE OF THE STUDY
P u r p o s e
T h ro u g h o u t t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s , e d u c a t o r s h a v e
em p lo y ed n u m ero u s m eans t o f o r e c a s t a c a d e m ic a c h ie v e m e n t
S i n g l y and In c o m b i n a t i o n , t h e y h a v e u s e d su c h v a r i a b l e s
a s p s y c h o l o g i c a l t e s t s , I n v e n t o r i e s , a n d c l a s s m a r k s . I n
w o r k i n g w i t h s t u d e n t s , c o u n s e l i n g a n d g u i d a n c e p e r s o n n e l
I n L os A n g e l e s ' s e c o n d a r y an d t e r t i a r y i n s t i t u t i o n s h a v e
b e e n c o n c e r n e d a b o u t t h e a c c u r a c y o f a d v i c e t h e y h a v e
g i v e n w h ic h was b a s e d on v a r i a b l e s l i k e t h o s e J u s t
l i s t e d . The p u r p o s e , t h e n , o f t h i s s t u d y w as t o e v a l u a t e
c e r t a i n e d u c a t i o n a l d a t a w h ic h a r e a v a i l a b l e on m o st
s t u d e n t s i n t h e L o s A n g e le s c i t y s c h o o l s and w h ic h a r e
c o n s u l t e d r e g u l a r l y by s t a f f c o u n s e l o r s when h e l p i n g
s t u d e n t s p l a n t h e i r J u n i o r c o l l e g e c u r r i c u l a .
I m p o r t a n c e
The i n v e s t i g a t i o n w as c o n s i d e r e d t o b e i m p o r t a n t
b e c a u s e i t r e p r e s e n t e d a r e s e a r c h o r i e n t e d a t t e m p t t o
h e l p J u n i o r c o l l e g e c o u n s e l o r s im p ro v e t h e q u a l i t y o f
t h e i r s e r v i c e when c o n f r o n t e d w i t h two r e c u r r i n g q u e s t i o n s
T ,Am I c a p a b l e o f s u c c e e d i n g I n u n i v e r s i t y p a r a l l e l t y p e s
o f c o u r s e s a s o f f e r e d a t t h i s J u n i o r c o l l e g e ? " A nd, " I f
I do h a v e a r e a s o n a b l e c h a n c e o f s u c c e e d i n g i n s u c h
c o u r s e s , i n w h ic h s u b j e c t m a t t e r a r e a s w i l l I l i k e l y do
my b e s t ? " Upon r e c e i v i n g su c h q u e s t i o n s , t h e t y p i c a l
p r o c e d u r e among m o s t c o u n s e l o r s h a s b e e n , f i r s t , t o
e x p l o r e In g r e a t e r d e t a i l t h e r e a s o n s f o r t h e s t u d e n t ' s
I n t e r e s t In t h i s i n f o r m a t i o n b y a s k i n g p e r t i n e n t
q u e s t i o n s a n d , s e c o n d , t o s e a r c h t h e s t u d e n t ' s p e r s o n n e l
f o l d e r f o r a v a i l a b l e t e s t s c o r e s and t h e t r a n s c r i p t o f h i s
h i g h s c h o o l c o u r s e s and m a rk s . T hen, w i t h t h i s
i n f o r m a t i o n a t h i s d i s p o s a l , t h e c o u n s e l o r u s u a l l y
p r o c e e d e d by p r e s e n t i n g and i n t e r p r e t i n g t h e d a t a i n
l i g h t o f t h e s t u d e n t ' s q u e s t i o n ( s ) and v a r i o u s r e l a t e d
p o i n t s c o v e r e d d u r i n g t h e d i s c u s s i o n . J u d g m e n ts made
by t h e c o u n s e l o r d u r i n g t h e i n t e r p r e t i v e p h a s e o f t h e
i n t e r v i e w w ere g e n e r a l l y g ro u n d e d on p e r s o n a l o p i n i o n and
e x p e r i e n c e and w ere seld o m s u b s t a n t i a t e d by t h e f i n d i n g s
o f e d u c a t i o n a l r e s e a r c h . The i m p o r ta n c e o f t h e s t u d y ,
t h e n , was t h a t i t s o u g h t t o d e te r m i n e and t o J u s t i f y i n
r e s e a r c h t h e i n t e r p r e t a t i o n s w hich c o u n s e l o r s c o u ld
l e g i t i m a t e l y make fro m t h e s e d a t a when g i v i n g c o u n s e l
r e g a r d i n g t h e a f o r e m e n t io n e d q u e s t i o n s .
IV . LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
In an i n v e s t i g a t i o n o f t h i s t y p e , w hich r e l i e d on
i n f o r m a t i o n c o l l e c t e d i n t h e r o u t i n e o p e r a t i o n o f a
l a r g e c i t y s c h o o l d i s t r i c t , num erous p ro b le m s w ere
i n t r o d u c e d o v e r w hich no c o n t r o l c o u ld be e x e r c i s e d .
Among t h o s e c o n f r o n t e d , some o f t h e more i m p o r t a n t a r e
sum m arized i n s u c c e e d i n g p a r a g r a p h s .
F i r s t , m o t i v a t i o n i s an e l u s i v e f a c t o r , v e r y
i m p o r t a n t f o r a ca d em ic s u c c e s s , b u t v i r t u a l l y i m p o s s i b l e
t o e v a l u a t e i n t h e p r o c e s s o f p s y c h o l o g i c a l m e a su re m e n t.
In t h e p r o g r e s s o f r e g u l a r c la s s r o o m I n s t r u c t i o n , t e a c h e r s
a r e o f t e n a b l e t o make Ju d g m en ts o f t h e i r s t u d e n t s '
i n d u s t r y , a l t h o u g h many o f t h e s e a d m i t t e d l y a r e made on
t e n u o u s g r o u n d s . By way o f c o n t r a s t , i n a s t u d y o f t h i s
s o r t no c o n t r o l o v e r m o t i v a t i o n d u r i n g t e s t i n g was
p o s s i b l e .
S e c o n d , t h e two p s y c h o l o g i c a l t e s t s em ployed w ere
a d m i n i s t e r e d by num erous i n d i v i d u a l s , now anonym ous.
T h e i r q u a l i f i c a t i o n s f o r su ch w ork, t h e i r a d h e r e n c e t o
s t a n d a r d i z e d t e s t i n g c o n d i t i o n s , and t h e i r e f f o r t s t o
s t i m u l a t e t e s t e e s to w a rd m axim al p e r f o r m a n c e s re m a in a s
q u e s t i o n m a rk s . No o p p o r t u n i t y was p e r m i t t e d t h e
i n v e s t i g a t o r t o s u p e r v i s e t h e v a r i o u s t e s t a d m i n i s t r a t i o n s ,
t h e r e b y g i v i n g him a d i r e c t , p e r s o n a l b a s i s on w hich t o
a s s e s s b o th t h e s t u d e n t s ' m o t i v a t i o n and t h e e x i s t e n c e
o f c o m p a ra b le c o n d i t i o n s d u r i n g e a c h i n s t r u m e n t ' s
p r e s e n t a t i o n . A lth o u g h t h e p r e s e n c e o f t h e s e p ro b le m s
was a c k n o w le d g e d , t h e a s s u m p tio n h ad t o be made t h a t
r e a s o n a b l e m o t i v a t i o n and a c c e p t a b l e t e s t i n g c o n d i t i o n s
p r e v a i l e d .
A n o th e r p ro b le m o f p rim e im p o r ta n c e c e n t e r e d on t h e
u s e o f c l a s s m arks f o r p r e d i c t i v e p u r p o s e s . Among
e d u c a t o r s , i t i s a m a t t e r o f common k n ow ledge t h a t
c o n s i d e r a b l e v a r i a t i o n o c c u r s from s c h o o l t o s c h o o l i n
c u r r i c u l a r p a t t e r n s , s e q u e n c e o f m a t e r i a l s ' p r e s e n t a t i o n ,
10
and f a c u l t y g r a d i n g p o l i c i e s and p r a c t i c e s . In a d d i t i o n ,
t h e s e same p ro b le m s a l s o p r e v a i l w i t h i n s i n g l e s c h o o l s ,
a l b e i t u s u a l l y i n l e s s e r d e g r e e . T hus, g r a d e s
a d m i t t e d l y l a c k c o n s i s t e n c y from t e a c h e r t o t e a c h e r and
from s c h o o l t o s c h o o l . A m b ig u ity c o n s t a n t l y b e c lo u d s
t h e i r u s e f u l n e s s .
I d e a l l y , many o t h e r c o n t r o l s w ould h a v e b e en
d e s i r a b l e b u t w ere i m p o s s i b l e . F o r e x am p le , c e r t a i n
c o n t r o l s o v e r s t u d e n t s ' p e r s o n a l b e h a v i o r w ould h av e b een
h i g h l y d e s i r a b l e had t h e y b e e n f e a s i b l e . To i l l u s t r a t e ,
no r e g u l a t i o n was p o s s i b l e o v e r su c h i m p o r t a n t m a t t e r s
a s s t u d e n t s ' s tu d y c o n d i t i o n s , s t u d y h o u r s , and s tu d y
h a b i t s and a t t i t u d e s . R a n d o m iz a tio n o f d i f f e r e n c e s was
assum ed , b u t i t was i m p o s s i b l e t o be c e r t a i n t h a t r e s u l t s
w ould n o t be b i a s e d by such f a c t o r s . The i n h e r e n t
i n a d e q u a c i e s o f p s y c h o l o g i c a l t e s t s f o r p r e d i c t i v e
p u r p o s e s had t o be a c c e p t e d w i t h o u t a m e l i o r a t i v e r e c o u r s e .
Any a t t e m p t t o i s o l a t e tro u b le s o m e a d j u s t m e n t p ro b le m s in
o r d e r t o c o n s i d e r t h e i r d i s r u p t i v e i n f l u e n c e s was o u t o f
t h e q u e s t i o n . C o n s i d e r a t i o n o f b i a s e s w hich may h av e b e en
i n t r o d u c e d by v a r y i n g s o c io -e c o n o m ic b a c k g ro u n d s was n o t
p o s s i b l e . O p p o r tu n ity f o r c la s s r o o m o b s e r v a t i o n by
w hich t o s t u d y t h e i n f l u e n c e o f o t h e r f a c t o r s , 3uch as
t h e i n f l u e n c e o f prom pt p r e p a r a t i o n o f a s s ig n m e n ts i n
a w a rd in g m a rk s, c o u ld n o t be made.
11
T he p r e s e n c e o f t h e s e a n d o t h e r p r o b l e m s w as
o b v i o u s l y f r u s t r a t i n g . H o w e v e r, t h e y w e r e n o t
n e c e s s a r i l y p e c u l i a r t o t h i s s t u d y . S u ch l i m i t a t i o n s
p l a g u e v i r t u a l l y a l l I n v e s t i g a t i o n s o f s c h o l a s t i c
p r e d i c t i o n a n d a r e g e n e r a l l y a c c e p t e d a s u n a v o i d a b l e
o b s t r u c t i o n s . I n f a c t , t h e q u e s t i o n o f w h e t h e r t h e i r
p r e s e n c e w as n e c e s s a r i l y d e t r i m e n t a l i s n o t c l e a r . One
c o u l d a r g u e , w i t h J u s t i f i c a t i o n , t h a t few h i g h s c h o o l
o r J u n i o r c o l l e g e a d v i s o r s a n d c o u n s e l o r s a r e
s u f f i c i e n t l y s o p h i s t i c a t e d i n t h e i r r o u t i n e s t u d e n t
c o n t a c t s t o t a k e t h e s e f a c t o r s i n t o c o n s i d e r a t i o n i n t h e
f i r s t p l a c e . I f t h i 3 l i n e o f r e a s o n i n g s h o u l d b e
a c c u r a t e , t h e p r o c e d u r e p u r s u e d i n t h i s i n v e s t i g a t i o n was
p r o b a b l y m o re r e a l i s t i c when c o m p a r e d w i t h a c t u a l
p r a c t i c e t h a n a n o t h e r w h ic h m i g h t h a v e made s u c h
a l l o w a n c e s .
V. ORGANIZATION OF THE STUDY
The s t u d y i s o r g a n i z e d i n n i n e c h a p t e r s a r r a n g e d
a c c o r d i n g t o v a r i o u s t o p i c s . C h a p t e r tw o d e s c r i b e s t h e
b a c k g r o u n d a n d d e v e l o p m e n t o f d i f f e r e n t i a l s c h o l a s t i c
p r e d i c t i o n . C h a p t e r t h r e e g i v e s a c r i t i c a l a p p r a i s a l o f
t h e p s y c h o l o g i c a l t e s t s e m p lo y e d . C h a p t e r f o u r p r o v i d e s
a n i n t e n s i v e o v e r v i e w o f t h e s a m p l e . C h a p t e r f i v e
c o n t a i n s a d e t a i l e d a c c o u n t o f t h e p r o c e d u r e . C h a p t e r s
s i x , s e v e n , an d e i g h t r e v i e w t h e f i n d i n g s . F i n a l l y ,
C h a p t e r n i n e o f f e r s a summary o f t h e e n t i r e
i n v e s t i g a t i o n , d e v e l o p s c o n c l u s i o n s , a n d c l o s e s w i t h
r e c o m m e n d a tio n s f o r a d d i t i o n a l i n q u i r i e s .
CHAPTER II
SUMMARY OP SELECTED LITERATURE CONCERNING
SCHOLASTIC PREDICTION
S c h o l a s t i c p r e d i c t i o n i s a t o p i c w h ic h h a s r e c e i v e d
e x t e n s i v e a t t e n t i o n i n e d u c a t i o n a l l i t e r a t u r e . I n t h e i r
f i r s t e l e v e n v o lu m e s ( J u l y , 19 3 2 - J u n e , 1 9 5 9 )> e d i t o r s
of> E d u c a t i o n I n d e x ( 5 , 6 , 7 , 16) i n c l u d e d 5 5 6 e n t r i e s
u n d e r t h e t i t l e " P r o g n o s i s o f s u c c e s s " a n d s e v e n t y - s e v e n
m o re u n d e r " P r o g n o s i s T e s t s . " M ost o f t h e s e r e p o r t e d on
s t u d i e s i n g e n e r a l s c h o l a s t i c p r e d i c t i o n . O nly a few
w e r e c o n c e r n e d w i t h d i f f e r e n t i a l s c h o l a s t i c p r e d i c t i o n . 1
I . GENERAL SCHOLASTIC PREDICTION
R e s e a r c h l i t e r a t u r e r e l a t i n g t o g e n e r a l s c h o l a s t i c
p r e d i c t i o n w i l l r e c e i v e v e r y b r i e f a t t e n t i o n h e r e . T h i s
d e c i s i o n w as p r o m p te d b y t h e l a r g e v o lu m e o f m a t e r i a l
w h ic h h a s b e e n p u b l i s h e d a n d b y t h e f a c t t h a t s e v e r a l
c o m p r e h e n s i v e b i b l i o g r a p h i e s a n d c r i t i c a l s y n o p s e s o f
s e l e c t e d s t u d i e s a r e r e a d i l y a v a i l a b l e ( 5 , 6 , 7 , 1 3 , 1 6 ,
3 4 , 3 6 , 3 9 , 9 9 ).
-
S ee C h a p t e r I f o r d e f i n i t i o n s o f t h e tw o t y p e s o f
p r e d i c t i o n .
A v a s t n u m b e r o f c o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t s h a s b e e n
r e p o r t e d . F o r p r e d i c t o r s , h i g h s c h o o l m a r k s , t e s t
s c o r e s , an d r a n k I n h i g h s c h o o l g r a d u a t i n g c l a s s h a v e b e e n
t h e m o s t f r e q u e n t . F o r c r i t e r i a , c o l l e g e g r a d e s a n d
g r a d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s h a v e p r e d o m i n a t e d . C o e f f i c i e n t s
b a s e d on s i n g l e p r e d i c t o r s h a v e c o n g r e g a t e d l a r g e l y
b e tw e e n .4 0 a n d .5 9 w h i l e t h o s e b a s e d on m u l t i p l e
p r e d i c t o r s h a v e f a l l e n p r e d o m i n a n t l y b e tw e e n .5 0 a n d . 6 9 .
I I . DIFFERENTIAL SCHOLASTIC PREDICTION
L i t e r a t u r e on d i f f e r e n t i a l s c h o l a s t i c p r e d i c t i o n i s
l e s s p l e n t i f u l , a l t h o u g h a t f i r s t g l a n c e o ne c o u l d e a s i l y
c o n c l u d e t h a t i t s v o lu m e i s l a r g e r t h a n i t a c t u a l l y i s .
T h i s s i t u a t i o n i s i n l a r g e p a r t a p r o d u c t o f
m i s u n d e r s t a n d i n g s c o n c e r n i n g t h e n a t u r e o f d i f f e r e n t i a l
p r e d i c t i o n w h i c h , i n t u r n , h a s r e s u l t e d i n t h e i n a c c u r a t e
t i t l i n g o f r e s e a r c h r e p o r t s . I f d i f f e r e n t i a l s c h o l a s t i c
p r e d i c t i o n I s d e f i n e d a s a s t u d y o f t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p
b e tw e e n a p r e d i c t o r o r p r e d i c t o r s a n d a d i f f e r e n c e
s e p a r a t i n g tw o v a r i a b l e s , o n e w i l l f i n d t h a t e a c h o f t h e
f o l l o w i n g s i x c i t a t i o n s , a l l o f w h ic h a r e r e p r e s e n t e d a s
r e p o r t s on s t u d i e s i n d i f f e r e n t i a l s c h o l a s t i c p r e d i c t i o n ,
a r e e r r o n e o u s l y l a b e l l e d ( 3 1 , 5 2 , 6 1 , 7 4 , 7 5 , 1 0 5 ) .
None I s c o n c e r n e d w i t h p r e d i c t i n g d i f f e r e n c e s . T h u s ,
15
l i t e r a t u r e p u r p o r t e d t o c o n c e r n d i f f e r e n t i a l s c h o l a s t i c
2
p r e d i c t i o n s h o u l d n o t b e a c c e p t e d u n c r i t i c a l l y a s s u c h .
The S e g e l M ethod
P r i o r t o 1 9 3 0 , d i f f e r e n t i a l s c h o l a s t i c p r e d i c t i o n
r e c e i v e d l i t t l e a t t e n t i o n i n e d u c a t i o n a l J o u r n a l s .
Among t h e m a j o r i t y o f e d u c a t o r s i t was unknow n, a l t h o u g h
b o t h K e l l e y (12) an d H u l l an d Limp (45) h a d done some
w ork i n t h e 192 0s and e a r l i e r . I t s p r o p a g a t i o n an d
p o p u l a r i z a t i o n was l a r g e l y a f u n c t i o n o f S e g e l ' s
r e s e a r c h a n d p u b l i c a t i o n s i n t h e e a r l y 1 9 3 0 s ( l 4 , 6 5 ,
6 6 , 6 7 , 99)• I n c o l l a b o r a t i o n w i t h Lee (48) and
G e r b e r i c h ( 6 8) t he d e v e l o p e d a p r o c e d u r e e m p lo y in g
e l e m e n t a r y s t a t i s t i c s w h ich c o u l d r e a d i l y b e u s e d by
e d u c a t o r s w hose b a c k g r o u n d s i n c l u d e d two y e a r s o f h i g h
s c h o o l a l g e b r a and b a s i c e d u c a t i o n a l s t a t i s t i c s .
S e g e l ' s m eth o d i n v o l v e d f i v e b a s i c s t e p s (99).
F i r s t , he s e l e c t e d t h o s e p r e d i c t o r s and c r i t e r i a w hich
a p p e a r e d t o h a v e s t r o n g p o t e n t i a l f o r m a k in g t h e t y p e s
o f d i s c r i m i n a t i o n s d e s i r e d . S e c o n d , h e s t u d i e d h i s
p r o p o s e d c r i t e r i a f o r t h e i r r e l i a b i l i t i e s and
i n t e r c o r r e l a t i o n s , c o r r e c t i n g t h e l a t t e r f o r a t t e n u a t i o n
2
Wesman an d B e n n e t t h a v e p u b l i s h e d two e x c e l l e n t
e s s a y s ( 8 7 , 1 0 1 ) c o n c e r n i n g t h i s t y p e o f p r e d i c t i o n ,
g i v i n g p a r t i c u l a r a t t e n t i o n t o t h o s e p r o b le m s w h ic h a r e
p e c u l i a r t o i t .
and s e t t i n g .8 0 a s t h e maximum v a lu e i n o r d e r f o r
d i f f e r e n c e s b e tw e e n two v a r i a b l e s t o be a c c e p t a b l e f o r
c r i t e r i o n p u r p o s e s . T h i r d , he s i m i l a r l y exam ined t h e
p r e d i c t o r s f o r t h e i r r e l i a b i l i t i e s and i n t e r c o r r e l a t i o n s ,
a lt h o u g h no s t a n d a r d s f o r r e t a i n i n g o r r e j e c t i n g a
p r e d i c t o r w ere s u g g e s t e d . F o u r t h , he com puted z e r o
o r d e r c o r r e l a t i o n s b e tw ee n each p r e d i c t o r and each
c r i t e r i o n , and m u l t i p l e c o r r e l a t i o n s betw een t h e b e s t
c o m b in a tio n o f a l l p r e d i c t o r s and e a c h c r i t e r i o n . F i f t h ,
he p r e p a r e d p r e d i c t i v e m u l t i p l e r e g r e s s i o n e q u a t i o n s in
c a s e s w here m u l t i p l e c o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t s w ere a t
.5 0 o f h i g h e r .
S e g e l 's m ethod h a s r e c e i v e d much comment. R e p o r ts
c o n c e r n i n g i t i n d i c a t e t h a t c o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t s
b e tw e e n s i n g l e p r e d i c t o r s and d i f f e r e n c e s i n g r a d e p o i n t
a v e r a g e s f o r c o l l e g i a t e s u b j e c t m a t t e r a r e a s have
g e n e r a l l y b e en p o s i t i v e b u t low . M u l t i p l e c o r r e l a t i o n s
have b e en more e n c o u r a g i n g , e x te n d i n g i n t o t h e h ig h . 6 0 s .
Nemzek h a s u s e d t h i s m ethod i n s e v e r a l o f h i s
s t u d i e s ( 5 5 , 5 6 , 5 7 , 5 8 , 5 9) » h a v in g g iv e n c o n s i d e r a b l e
a t t e n t i o n to d i f f e r e n t i a l p r e d i c t i o n from c e r t a i n
n o n - i n t e l l e c t u a l f a c t o r s , i . e . , c h r o n o l o g i c a l age a t
e n t r a n c e t o e le m e n t a r y s c h o o l , e x t e n t o f p a t e r n a l
e d u c a t i o n , e x t e n t o f m a t e r n a l e d u c a t i o n , f a t h e r ' s
o c c u p a t i o n a l s t a t u s , a n n u a l r a t e o f t a r d i n e s s , a n n u a l
17
r a t e o f a b s e n c e from c l a s s , and p e r s o n a l i t y v a r i a b l e s .
A lth o u g h p r e d o m i n a n t l y p o s i t i v e , h i s f i n d i n g s h a v e b e e n
u n i f o r m l y to o low t o h a v e p r a c t i c a l u t i l i t y .
The C ra w fo rd Method
S i m u lta n e o u s w ith S e g e l ' s w o rk , C ra w fo rd a t Y a le
was d e v e l o p i n g a n o t h e r m e th o d . U n lik e S e g e l , he was
i n t e r e s t e d i n d i f f e r e n t i a t i n g o n l y b e tw e e n two b r o a d
a b i l i t y a r e a s , i . e . , t h e v e r b a l and t h e q u a n t i t a t i v e ,
r a t h e r t h a n b e tw e e n s p e c i f i c s u b j e c t m a t t e r u n i t s . F o r
m e a s u r e s o f v e r b a l a b i l i t y , he u s e d m arks i n E n g l i s h ,
h i s t o r y , and f o r e i g n l a n g u a g e s ( L a t i n , F r e n c h , S p a n i s h ,
and G erm an ), w h i l e f o r q u a n t i t a t i v e a b i l i t y he u s e d
m arks i n m a t h e m a ti c s , c h e m i s t r y , p h y s i c s , b i o l o g y , and
m e c h a n ic a l d r a w in g .
To d e m o n s tr a te h i s m eth o d , C ra w fo rd (9) a p p l i e d i t
t o a g ro u p o f 495 Y a le fre s h m e n i n t h e 1 9 3 4 -3 5 a c a d e m ic
y e a r . To b e e l i g i b l e , s t u d e n t s had t o h a v e c o m p le te d a t
l e a s t two y e a r - l o n g v e r b a l c o u r s e s and a t l e a 3 t two
y e a r - l o n g q u a n t i t a t i v e c o u r s e s . F o u r s t e p s w ere
i n v o l v e d .
F i r s t , he c o n v e r t e d t h e 495 s t u d e n t s ' c o u r s e m arks
t o a h u n d re d i n t e g e r s c a l e w i t h a mean o f s e v e n t y - t h r e e
and a s t a n d a r d d e v i a t i o n o f e i g h t .
18
S e c o n d , he p r e p a r e d two p r e d i c t i v e m u l t i p l e
r e g r e s s i o n e q u a t i o n s , one t o f o r e c a s t a g ra d e p o i n t
a v e r a g e f o r v e r b a l c o u r s e s and t h e o t h e r t o f o r e c a s t a
g r a d e p o i n t a v e r a g e f o r q u a n t i t a t i v e c o u r s e s . V e r b a l
p r e d i c t o r s w ere h ig h s c h o o l r a n k in g r a d u a t i n g c l a s s , t h e
V e r b a l S c o re on t h e S c h o l a s t i c A p t i t u d e T e s t o f t h e
C o lle g e E n tr a n c e E x a m in a tio n B o a rd , and s c o r e s f o r th e
E n g l i s h , h i s t o r y , and f o r e i g n la n g u a g e A ch iev em en t T e s t s
o f t h e C o lle g e E n t r a n c e E x a m in a tio n B o a rd . Q u a n t i t a t i v e
p r e d i c t o r s w ere h ig h s c h o o l r a n k in g r a d u a t i n g c l a s s ,
t h e M a th e m a tic s S c o re on th e S c h o l a s t i c A p t i t u d e T e s t o f
t h e C o lle g e E n tr a n c e E x a m in a tio n B o a rd , and t h e 3 c o re s on
t h e m a th e m a tic s and s c i e n c e s A ch ievem en t T e s t s o f th e
C o lle g e E n tr a n c e E x a m in a tio n B o a rd . The m u l t i p l e
c o r r e l a t i o n f o r t h e v e r b a l a r e a was .62 w h ile t h a t f o r
t h e q u a n t i t a t i v e a r e a was . 6 7 .
T h i r d , he s u b t r a c t e d t h e p r e d i c t e d V e r b a l g ra d e
p o i n t a v e r a g e from t h e p r e d i c t e d Q u a n t i t a t i v e g r a d e p o i n t
a v e r a g e f o r e a c h o f t h e 495 s t u d e n t s . F o u r t h , he
com pared th e d i f f e r e n c e s in p r e d i c t e d g r a d e p o i n t
a v e r a g e s w ith t h e d i f f e r e n c e s a c t u a l l y a c h i e v e d .
P r e d i c t e d d i f f e r e n c e s o f h a l f a s t a n d a r d d e v i a t i o n ( f o u r
p o i n t s ) o r more w ere Judged t o b e w o r th y o f c o n s i d e r a t i o n .
S e v e n t y - f i v e p e r c e n t o f th e p r e d i c t e d d i f f e r e n c e s met
19
o r e x c e e d e d t h i s s t a n d a r d , s e v e n t y p e r c e n t i n t h e same
d i r e c t i o n a s t h e a c h i e v e d d i f f e r e n c e and f i v e p e r c e n t
i n t h e o p p o s i t e d i r e c t i o n .
O th e r i n v e s t i g a t i o n s u s i n g t h i s m ethod h a v e a l s o
b e e n c o n d u c te d a t Y a l e , m o s tly u n d e r t h e d i r e c t i o n o f
C ra w fo rd and Burnham ( 3 5 ) • In one o f t h e s e , W olf (88)
fo u n d t h a t e i g h t y p e r c e n t o f t h e p r e d i c t e d d i f f e r e n c e s
am ounted t o f o u r p o i n t s o r m ore, s e v e n t y p e r c e n t i n t h e
3ame d i r e c t i o n a s t h e a c h i e v e d d i f f e r e n c e s and t e n
p e r c e n t i n t h e c o n t r a r y d i r e c t i o n . H is s t u d y was
b a s e d on a g ro u p o f 1720 Y a le fre s h m e n c o v e r i n g t h e
t h r e e y e a r span from 1930 -3 1 th r o u g h 1 9 3 2 -3 3 .
The H o r s t Method
In r e c e n t y e a r s , much r e s e a r c h i n d i f f e r e n t i a l
s c h o l a s t i c p r e d i c t i o n h a s b e en done u n d e r H o r s t (4 3 , 44)
a t t h e U n i v e r s i t y o f W a s h in g to n . S u b s i d i z e d by fu n d s
fro m t h e S t a t e o f W ash in g to n and by g r a n t s from th e
O f f i c e o f N a v a l R e s e a r c h , t h e p ro g ram i n e i g h t y e a r s
h a s grown fro m a s m a ll s t u d y o f 2000 U n i v e r s i t y o f
W a sh in g to n fre s h m e n t o one o f s t a t e w i d e p r o p o r t i o n s .
E ach y e a r t h e u n i v e r s i t y d i s p a t c h e s t e s t i n g tea m s t o v i s i t
h i g h s c h o o l s t h r o u g h o u t t h e s t a t e , a d m i n i s t e r i n g a
b a t t e r y o f s e v e n t e s t s t o s e n i o r s i n t e r e s t e d i n
p r o c e e d i n g t o c o l l e g e . The com bined t e s t i n g tim e f o r a l l
se v e n i n s t r u m e n t s i s l e s s t h a n a f u l l d a y .
H o r s t ' s m e th o d e m p lo y s a c o m p le x m a t h e m a t i c a l
s t r u c t u r e b a s e d on m a t r i x a l g e b r a . O nly w i t h t h e
a s s i s t a n c e o f an IBM 6 50 M a g n e tic Drum D a t a P r o c e s s i n g
M a ch in e I s I t made w o r k a b le f o r l a r g e s c a l e u s e .
T h i r t e e n p r e d i c t o r s a r e u s e d , s e v e n o f th e m b e i n g
c o m m e r c i a l l y d i s t r i b u t e d p s y c h o l o g i c a l t e s t s an d t h e
o t h e r s i x b e i n g g r a d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s f o r v a r i o u s
c o m b i n a t i o n s o f h i g h s c h o o l c o u r s e m a r k s . C r i t e r i a i n
a l l c a s e s a r e g r a d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s b a s e d on m a rk s e a r n e d
a t t h e U n i v e r s i t y o f W a s h i n g t o n . P r e d i c t i o n s a r e made
f o r c u m u l a t i v e g r a d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s an d f o r g r a d e p o i n t
a v e r a g e s i n t h i r t y - t w o s u b j e c t m a t t e r a r e a s . A l l
p r e d i c t i o n s a r e made fro m t h e same s e t o f t h i r t e e n
p r e d i c t o r s , a l t h o u g h w e i g h t i n g s v a r y b y c r i t e r i o n f o r
e a c h p r e d i c t o r .
To f a c i l i t a t e c l e a r , a c c u r a t e i n t e r p r e t a t i o n s ,
H o r s t h a s p r e p a r e d a s e r i e s o f c h a r t s t o w h ic h s t u d e n t s
c a n t r a n s f e r t h e i r p r e d i c t i o n s . When p l o t t e d a c c o r d i n g
t o d i r e c t i o n s , s t u d e n t s a r e p r o v i d e d an o p p o r t u n i t y t o
v i s u a l l y i n t e r p r e t t h e i r s c o r e s i n t e r m s o f p r o b a b i l i t y
s t a t e m e n t s , e . g . , c h a n c e s o f g e t t i n g a "C" a v e r a g e and
c h a n c e s o f g e t t i n g a m B" a v e r a g e . T h u s , a l t h o u g h t h e
m a t h e m a t i c s on w h ic h H o r s t ' s m e th o d i s b u i l t may b e q u i t e
i n v o l v e d , t h e r e s u l t s a r e e a s i l y i n t e r p r e t e d f o r
t h i r t y - t h r e e d i f f e r e n t c r i t e r i a .
21
Use o f H o r s t f s m e th o d I n d i f f e r e n t i a l s c h o l a s t i c
p r e d i c t i o n h a s b e e n c o n f i n e d t o t h e U n i v e r s i t y o f
W a s h in g to n . P ro b le m s o f t i m e , e x p e n s e , s t a f f , e q u ip m e n t,
and s i z e o f s t u d e n t b o d y h a v e a c t e d t o r e t a r d i t s
a d o p t i o n e l s e w h e r e .
A p p l i c a t i o n s i n t e s t i n g
A n o t h e r p h a s e i n t h e s t u d y o f d i f f e r e n t i a l
s c h o l a s t i c p r e d i c t i o n h a s b e e n t o d e v i s e b e t t e r
i n s t r u m e n t s fro m w h ic h t o make s u c h p r e d i c t i o n s .
S e v e r a l a t t e m p t s h a v e b e e n made i n t h i s d i r e c t i o n , two o f
w h ic h w i l l be r e v i e w e d h e r e .
A m e ric a n C o u n c il on E d u c a t i o n P s y c h o l o g i c a l
E x a m in a t io n f o r C o l l e g e F re sh m e n ( 1 0 0 ) . In so f a r a s
d i f f e r e n t i a l a b i l i t y t e s t i n g i s c o n c e r n e d a t t h e c o l l e g e
3
l e v e l , t h i s i s one o f t h e b e s t known t e 3 t s . I t s
d e v e lo p m e n t w as s u p e r v i s e d by t h e T h u r s t o n e s u n d e r a
g r a n t fro m t h e C a r n e g i e F o u n d a t i o n f o r t h e A dvancem ent
o f E d u c a t i o n . The f i r s t e d i t i o n was p u b l i s h e d i n 1924
and s u c c e s s i v e a n n u a l r e v i s i o n s w ere made t h r o u g h 19 4 9 .
C o n t r o l was t r a n s f e r r e d t o E d u c a t i o n a l T e s t i n g S e r v i c e i n
1948 when t h e C o u n c il d i s b a n d e d i t s a c t i v i t i e s i n t e s t
H e r e i n a f t e r r e f e r r e d t o by t h e a b b r e v i a t e d t i t l e
ACE.
22
p u b l i c a t i o n and r e s e a r c h . E d u c a t i o n a l T e s t i n g S e r v i c e
made t h r e e r e v i s i o n s , i . e . , 19^9* 1952, and 195^* and
t h e n i n t r o d u c e d t h e S c h o o l and C o l le g e A b i l i t y T e s t s a s
a r e p l a c e m e n t . H ow ever, t h e t h r e e r e v i s i o n s p u b l i s h e d by
E d u c a t i o n a l T e s t i n g S e r v i c e w i l l c o n t i n u e t o b e m a r k e te d
f o r s e v e r a l y e a r s .
The ACE y i e l d s t h r e e s c o r e s , i . e . , Q u a n t i t a t i v e ,
4
L i n g u i s t i c , and T o t a l . H ow ever, o n ly t h e f i r s t and
se c o n d a r e c o n c e rn e d w i t h d i f f e r e n t i a l s c h o l a s t i c
p r e d i c t i o n . T hrough t h i r t y y e a r s o f r e s e a r c h and
r e v i s i o n , t h e two s p o n s o r i n g o r g a n i z a t i o n s t r i e d t o
d e v e l o p an i n s t r u m e n t c a p a b l e o f p r e d i c t i n g i n w hich o f
two b r o a d s u b j e c t m a t t e r a r e a s a p e r s o n c o u ld be
e x p e c te d t o do b e t t e r . T hese two a r e a s w ere d i s t i n g u i s h e d
by t h e t y p e s o f u n d e r s t a n d i n g s I n v o l v e d . In one c a s e ,
a t t e n t i o n was f o c u s e d upon a b i l i t y t o u n d e r s t a n d and t o
u s e q u a n t i t a t i v e c o n c e p t s . T h is ty p e o f u n d e r s t a n d i n g
c h a r a c t e r i s t i c a l l y u s e d m a th e m a tic s a s I t s medium o f
c o m m u n ic a tio n and was c o n s i d e r e d o f p rim e i m p o r ta n c e i n
t h e p h y s i c a l s c i e n c e s . The o t h e r ty p e was more h e a v i l y
s a t u r a t e d w ith v e r b a l c o n t e n t and s t r e s s e d e x p r e s s i o n
t h r o u g h w r i t t e n and spoken l a n g u a g e .
_
A more c o m p re h e n s iv e and th o r o u g h d e s c r i p t i o n o f
t h e t e s t a p p e a r s i n C h a p te r I I I .
R e s e a r c h s t u d i e s h a v e te n d e d t o i n v a l i d a t e t h e ACE
a s an i n s t r u m e n t o f d i f f e r e n t i a l p r e d i c t i o n a n d , a s a
c o n s e q u e n c e , i t i s no l o n g e r b e i n g r e v i s e d . The
Q u a n t i t a t i v e S c o re h a s b e e n fo u n d t o b e p a r t i c u l a r l y
w eak. S u c c e s s i n t h e p h y s i c a l s c i e n c e s h a s f r e q u e n t l y
c o r r e l a t e d b e t t e r w i t h t h e L i n g u i s t i c S c o r e t h a n w i t h t h e
Q u a n t i t a t i v e S c o r e . In s h o r t , l i t e r a t u r e c o n c e r n i n g t h e
ACE's v a l i d i t y f o r d i f f e r e n t i a l p r e d i c t i o n h a s b e e n
g e n e r a l l y n e g a t i v e ( 1 9 , 2 9 , 8 4 , 8 5 ) .
D i f f e r e n t i a l A p t i t u d e T e s t s . The D i f f e r e n t i a l
A p t i t u d e T e s t s ( 2 ) r e p r e s e n t a m ore r e c e n t a t t e m p t t o
d e v i s e a b a t t e r y s u i t a b l e f o r d i f f e r e n t i a l s c h o l a s t i c
p r e d i c t i o n . The se v e n t e s t s a r e l a b e l l e d : V e r b a l
R e a s o n in g , N u m e ric a l A b i l i t y , A b s t r a c t R e a s o n in g , S p ace
R e l a t i o n s , M e c h a n ic a l R e a s o n in g , L an g u ag e U sage I :
S p e l l i n g , and L an guage U sage I I : S e n t e n c e s . T h e i r
p u r p o s e i s t o s u p p l y h i g h s c h o o l c o u n s e l o r s w ith
i n f o r m a t i o n u s e f u l i n v o c a t i o n a l and e d u c a t i o n a l g u i d a n c e .
I n t e r c o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t s r e p o r t e d i n t h e m an u a l v a r y
fro m .0 6 t o .6 2 f o r men w i t h a mean o f . 3 8 . F o r women
t h e y v a r y from .12 t o .6 7 and h a v e a mean o f . 3 9 .
A lth o u g h t h e s e mean c o e f f i c i e n t s i n d i c a t e t h a t
r e l a t i o n s h i p s b e tw e e n t e s t s w i t h i n t h e b a t t e r y a r e
5
H e r e i n a f t e r r e f e r r e d t o a s t h e DAT.
24
g e n e r a l l y low enough f o r d i f f e r e n t i a l p r e d i c t i o n , one
s h o u ld n o t f o r g e t t h a t t h e s e v a l u e s a r e m e a su re s o f
c e n t r a l te n d e n c y and t h a t some r e l a t i o n s h i p s a r e much
h i g h e r . T hu s, t h e e f f i c i e n c y w ith w hich t h e se v e n t e s t s
can p r e d i c t d i f f e r e n t i a l l y v a r i e s .
A lth o u g h i n t e n d e d f o r u s e a t t h e s e c o n d a r y l e v e l ,
r e s e a r c h r e p o r t s hav e a l s o a p p e a re d o f v a l i d a t i o n s t u d i e s
a t t h e c o l l e g e l e v e l . F o u r o f t h e s e a r e sum m arized i n
t h e m a n u a l. I n s t i t u t i o n s i n v o lv e d a r e K ansas S t a t e
T e a c h e r s C o l le g e , Oswego (New York) S t a t e T e a c h e r s C o lle g e ,
A lle g h e n y C o l le g e , and t h e U n i v e r s i t y o f M in n e so ta
I n s t i t u t e o f T e c h n o lo g y . F i n d i n g s a p p e a r a s c o r r e l a t i o n
c o e f f i c i e n t s b e tw ee n DAT s c o r e s and b o th i n d i v i d u a l
fresh m a n c o u r s e m arks and c u m u la tiv e fresh m a n g ra d e p o i n t
a v e r a g e s . Most o f th e c o e f f i c i e n t s a r e p o s i t i v e b u t low.
Among f o r t y - e i g h t I n v o l v i n g f i r s t y e a r g r a d e p o i n t
a v e r a g e s , two e q u a l o r e x c e e d . 5 0 , t h r e e f a l l betw een
.40 and .4 9 , and tw e lv e l i e b etw een .30 and .3 9 .
One o f t h e f o u r s t u d i e s r e p o r t e d In t h e m anu al,
i . e . , t h a t c o n d u c te d a t t h e U n i v e r s i t y o f M in n e so ta , was
u n d e r t h e d i r e c t i o n o f B e r d i e . In a r e p o r t p u b l i s h e d
e ls e w h e r e ( 2 l ) , he c o n c lu d e d t h a t t h e DAT had n o t
c o n t r i b u t e d s i g n i f i c a n t l y t o t h e p r e d i c t i o n o f academ ic
s u c c e s s a t t h e I n s t i t u t e o f T e c h n o lo g y . S a t i s f a c t i o n
was e x p r e s s e d o n ly w ith t h e N u m e ric a l A b i l i t y T e s t
25
w h ic h i n c o m b i n a t i o n w i t h s t u d e n t s ' c u m u l a t i v e h i g h
s c h o o l g r a d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s y i e l d e d a m u l t i p l e
c o r r e l a t i o n o f .6 2 w i t h f i r s t y e a r g r a d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s .
I n a s t u d y by E l t o n a n d M o r r i s (37) a t
B ir m in g h a m - S o u th e r n C o l l e g e , DAT s c o r e s a c c u m u la te d
d u r i n g f r e 3hman o r i e n t a t i o n w eek w e re c o r r e l a t e d w i t h
f i r s t q u a r t e r g r a d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s . C o e f f i c i e n t s r a n g e d
fro m .0 8 t o .4 6 . O nly two w ere a b o v e .4 0 , i . e . , t h o s e
u s i n g t h e V e r b a l R e a s o n in g an d t h e L an g u a g e U sage I I :
S e n t e n c e s t e s t s a s p r e d i c t o r s .
V i n e y a r d ( 8 2 ) c o r r e l a t e d DAT s c o r e s r e c e i v e d by
h i g h s c h o o l fr e s h m e n a t S t i l l w a t e r H igh S c h o o l ,
S t i l l w a t e r , O klahom a, w i t h t h e i r s u b s e q u e n t f i r s t y e a r
g r a d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s a t Oklahom a A & M C o l l e g e .
C o e f f i c i e n t s f o r m a le s r a n g e d fro m .3 2 5 t o .5 2 4 w i t h o n l y
one b e i n g ab o v e . 5 0 . F e m a l e s ' c o e f f i c i e n t s e x te n d e d fro m
.053 t o .4 6 8 w i t h two a b o v e .4 0 . A v a l i d a t i o n s t u d y was
c o n d u c t e d a y e a r l a t e r u s i n g a n o t h e r g ro u p o f f i f t y - s i x
S t i l l w a t e r H igh S c h o o l g r a d u a t e s who l i k e w i s e c o n t i n u e d
t h e i r e d u c a t i o n a t Oklahom a A & M. In t h i s c a s e ,
r e g r e s s i o n e q u a t i o n s d e v e l o p e d w i t h t h e o r i g i n a l g r o u p
»
w ere u s e d t o p r e d i c t f i r s t y e a r g r a d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s
and t h e s e , I n t u r n , w e re l a t e r c o r r e l a t e d w i t h t h e
f i f t y - s i x s t u d e n t s ’ e a r n e d a v e r a g e s . The c o r r e l a t i o n
c o e f f i c i e n t s w ere .63 and .5 6 f o r men and women,
26
r e s p e c t i v e l y . W ith r e g a r d t o i n d i v i d u a l t e s t s , V e r b a l
R e a s o n in g and N u m e ric a l A b i l i t y p ro v e d to be t h e m ost
e f f i c i e n t .
Q l a s s e r (40) c o n d u c te d a s l i g h t l y d i f f e r e n t s tu d y
among fre sh m e n m e d ic a l s t u d e n t s a t th e U n i v e r s i t y o f
I n d i a n a . S e v e r a l t e s t s w ere a d m i n i s t e r e d a t tim e of
e n t r a n c e , among w hich t h e DAT Space R e l a t i o n s T e s t was
o n e . S t u d e n t s ' s c o r e s w ere th e n c o r r e l a t e d w ith t h e i r
g r a d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s a c h ie v e d I n f i r s t y e a r m e d ic a l
s c h o o l s t u d i e s . The c o e f f i c i e n t o b t a i n e d was .0 4 . O th e r
c o e f f i c i e n t s u s i n g mark3 in s p e c i f i c f i r s t y e a r c o u r s e s
as a l t e r n a t i v e c r i t e r i a w ere u n i f o r m l y low . They
ra n g e d from - . 0 4 th r o u g h .1 4 .
To sum m arize, t h e DAT r e p r e s e n t one o f th e b e t t e r
m u l t i p l e a p t i t u d e t e s t b a t t e r i e s . They a p p e a r t o be a
p r o m is in g t o o l In t h e re a lm o f d i f f e r e n t i a l s c h o l a s t i c
p r e d i c t i o n a t t h e l e v e l f o r w hich th e y w ere i n t e n d e d ,
i . e . , f o r s e c o n d a ry s c h o o l s . The volume o f r e s e a r c h
w hich c o n c e r n s t h e i r v a l i d i t y i n c o l l e g e l e v e l s i t u a t i o n s
i s s m a l l . In g e n e r a l , t h e s e r e p o r t s s u g g e s t t h a t one
s h o u ld u s e c a u t i o n in a t t e m p t i n g t o e x te n d t h e DAT t o
d i f f e r e n t i a l p r e d i c t i o n p ro b lem s i n h i g h e r e d u c a t i o n .
21
II I , E X T E N S IO N S O F D IFFER EN TIA L PR E D IC T IO N
Extension of the techniques employed in differen tial
scholastic prediction into other areas faced with
comparable problems has been quite rapid since 1940,
Their first large scale application to a problem outside
of education occurred among the armed forces during
World War II, Confronted with mass scale inductions and
desiring to classify recruits in positions where they
could render their best contributions, the armed forces
incorporated differential techniques into their induction
testing programs with the hope that more efficient
assignments could ensue (38, 73).
Since World War II, business and industry have
developed extensive testing programs, In part, these
programs have been designed to solve problems of
personnel selection, i.e., the identification of a
person(s) from a pool of candidates for a given job who
is (are) best qualified for it, This type of problem
involves statistical procedures comparable to those used
in most educational studies of general scholastic
prediction, Other testing programs have been developed to
solve problems of personnel classification, i.e., the
assignment of a given number of persons to an identical
number of Jobs so that the resulting pattern of
28
placements represents the most effic ien t one which can be
obtained employing the individuals Involved, I t is the
la tte r type of program to which the techniques of
d ifferen tial scholastic prediction have proved
applicable. References to studies concerned with
personnel classification have been included in the
bibliography (26, 27, 51, 78, 83),
IV, S U M M A R Y
Scholastic prediction is a m uch studied topic. In
the past seventeen years The Education Index (5, 6, 7 ,
16) has contained references to more than 550 Journal
a rtic le s on the topic, The vast majority have been
focused on general scholastic prediction in higher
education, Only a small fraction have been concerned
eith er with d ifferen tial scholastic prediction or with
prediction of any kind on the Junior college level,
Regarding general scholastic prediction in higher
education, coefficients of correlation based on single
predictors have clustered predominantly between .10 and
. 59. Those based on multiple predictors have fallen
largely between .50 and ,69,
Large scale interest in d ifferen tial scholastic
prediction did not develop u n til the 1930s, M uch of the
responsibility for its popularization belongs to Segel
whose r e s e a r c h and w r i t in g s r e c e iv e d w idespread a t t e n t i o n
in th e m iddle and l a t t e r p a r t s o f t h a t decade. S e v e ra l
approach es t o d i f f e r e n t i a l p r e d i c t i o n have been dev elo ped.
B ro ad ly c a t e g o r i z e d , most r e s e a r c h r e p o r t s f a l l i n to one
o f th r e e sc h o o ls , i . e . , th e S egel sc h o o l, th e Crawford
sc h o o l, and th e H o rst sc h o o l. The l a s t named i s th e most
r e c e n t , the mo3t i n t r i c a t e , and th e most e x p e n siv e .
D uring and sin c e World War I I , problem s of
p r e d i c t i o n s i m i l a r to th o se c o n fro n te d in e d u c a tio n have
appeared in o t h e r f i e l d s . As a consequence, achievem ents
in e d u c a tio n a l p r e d i c t i o n have been a ready re s o u rc e f o r
r e s e a r c h people in th e armed fo r c e s and commercial
p e rs o n n e l d e p a rtm e n ts. T echniques of g e n e ra l s c h o l a s t i c
p r e d i c t i o n have c o n tr i b u te d to th e s o l u t io n of problems
in p e rs o n n e l s e l e c t i o n w hile th o se o f d i f f e r e n t i a l
p r e d i c t i o n have h e lp e d to r e s o lv e problem s in p e rso n n e l
c l a s s i f i c a t i o n .
CHAPTER III
PSYCHOLOGICAL TESTS USED IN THIS
RESEARCH PROJECT
Two s t a n d a r d i z e d , n a t i o n a l l y d i s t r i b u t e d , t e s t
i n s t r u m e n t s w ere u s e d i n t h i s s t u d y . One, t h e A m erican
C o u n c il on E d u c a t i o n P s y c h o l o g i c a l E x a m in a tio n f o r
C o l l e g e F re sh m e n , 1952 E d i t i o n ( 1 0 0 ) , was a m e a s u re o f
s c h o l a s t i c a p t i t u d e . The o t h e r , The Iow a T e s t s o f
E d u c a t i o n a l D e v elo p m en t ( 9 8 ) , was a s e t o f h ig h s c h o o l
a c h ie v e m e n t t e s t s . A c o m p r e h e n s iv e r e v ie w o f
p r o f e s s i o n a l l i t e r a t u r e on t h e r e l i a b i l i t y and t h e
v a l i d i t y o f b o t h i n s t r u m e n t s was made b e g i n n i n g w i t h
p u b l i c a t i o n s w h ic h a p p e a r e d i n 19^7* The r e s u l t s o f t h i s
I n v e s t i g a t i o n a r e p r e s e n t e d on s u c c e e d i n g p a g e s .
I. AMERICAN COUNCIL ON EDUCATION
PSYCHOLOGICAL EXAMINATION
FOR COLLEGE FRESHMEN
The ACE i s o r g a n i z e d a s two s e t s o f t h r e e t e s t s
e a c h . One s e t , e n t i t l e d t h e Q u a n t i t a t i v e T e s t s , I s
I n t e n d e d t o m e a s u re a p e r s o n ' s a b i l i t y t o co m p reh en d and
t o a p p ly q u a n t i t a t i v e c o n c e p t s w h ic h a r e c o m m u n icated
l a r g e l y th r o u g h t h e sy m b o lism o f m a t h e m a t i c s . The
31
s e c o n d s e t , e n t i t l e d t h e L i n g u i s t i c T e s t s , I s i n t e n d e d t o
m e a s u r e o n e ' s a b i l i t y t o u n d e r s t a n d a n d t o a p p l y I d e a s
w h ic h a r e c o m m u n ic a te d l a r g e l y t h r o u g h t h e s y m b o lis m o f
w r i t t e n a n d s p o k e n l a n g u a g e . T he f o r m e r i s d e s i g n e d t o
m e a s u r e a b i l i t y f o r m a t h e m a t i c s , p h y s i c s , c h e m i s t r y , a n d
e n g i n e e r i n g c o u r s e s , w h i l e t h e l a t t e r i s d e s i g n e d t o
m e a s u r e a b i l i t y f o r E n g l i s h , l i t e r a t u r e , h i s t o r y ,
p o l i t i c a l s c i e n c e , s o c i o l o g y , e c o n o m i c s , p h i l o s o p h y ,
f o r e i g n l a n g u a g e , b o t a n y , a n d z o o l o g y c o u r s e s .
T h r e e s c o r e s a r e a v a i l a b l e : A Q u a n t i t a t i v e S c o r e ,
a L i n g u i s t i c S c o r e , a n d a T o t a l S c o r e . The l a s t nam ed i s
s e c u r e d b y a d d i n g t h e Q u a n t i t a t i v e a n d L i n g u i s t i c raw
s c o r e s a n d r e p r e s e n t s a n i n d i c a t i o n o f a s t u d e n t ' s
g e n e r a l l e v e l o f s c h o l a s t i c a p t i t u d e w i t h o u t r e g a r d f o r
s p e c i f i c a b i l i t y a r e a s .
T h i r t y - e i g h t m i n u t e s o f t e s t i n g t i m e a r e r e q u i r e d ,
a n d e a c h s u b - t e s t i s p r e c e d e d b y p r a c t i c e q u e s t i o n s . The
l a t e s t r e v i s i o n a p p e a r e d i n 1 9 5 ^ a n d no m ore a r e
a n t i c i p a t e d . As a r e p l a c e m e n t , i t s p u b l i s h e r , E d u c a t i o n a l
T e s t i n g S e r v i c e , h a s r e l e a s e d t h e C o l l e g e A b i l i t y T e s t s
( 9 2 ) . T i t l e s o f t h e A C E 's s i x t e s t s a r e : A r i t h m e t i c a l
R e a s o n i n g , N um ber S e r i e s , F i g u r e A n a l o g i e s , Sam e-
O p p o s i t e , C o m p l e t i o n , a n d V e r b a l A n a l o g i e s .
32
R e l i a b i l i t y o f t h e ACE
R e p o r t s on t h e A C E 's r e l i a b i l i t y , p u b l i s h e d I n 1947
o r l a t e r , w e re s c a r c e . O nly f o u r w e re u n c o v e r e d . I n a
s t u d y a t S a c r a m e n t o S t a t e C o l l e g e , B a i l e y a n d Bramraer
( l 8 ) a d m i n i s t e r e d t h e 1948 ACE t o f i f t y J u n i o r s a n d
s l x t y - o n e s e n i o r s . B o th g r o u p s h a d p r e v i o u s l y t a k e n t h e
1941 e d i t i o n a s f r e s h m e n . The J u n i o r s h a d P e a r s o n
c o r r e l a t i o n s o f .8 0 , . 6 0 , a n d .7 8 w i t h t h e i r e a r l i e r 0,,
L, and T s c o r e s r e s p e c t i v e l y , w h i l e t h e s e n i o r s h a d
c o r r e l a t i o n s o f . 7 8 , .8 1 , an d . 7 2 . In e f f e c t , t h i s was
an a l t e r n a t e - f o r m s a p p r o a c h t o r e l i a b i l i t y i n w h ic h
r e s u l t s on t h e s e c o n d a d m i n i s t r a t i o n w e re c o n t a m i n a t e d
som ewhat b y s u c h e x t r a n e o u s f a c t o r s a3 e n h a n c e d s u b j e c t
m a t t e r a t s t u d e n t s ' commands and f a m i l i a r i t y w i t h t h e
t y p e s o f m a t e r i a l s an d t e s t i n g t e c h n i q u e s e m p lo y e d .
In a n o t h e r s t u d y c o n d u c t e d a t R an d o lp h -M ac o n
W omen's C o l l e g e an d r e p o r t e d by S huey ( 6 9 ) , one h u n d r e d
e i g h t women, a l l o f whom had p r e v i o u s l y t a k e n t h e 1944
ACE a s f r e s h m e n , w e re g i v e n t h e 1947 e d i t i o n a s s e c o n d
s e m e s t e r s e n i o r s . In t h i s c a s e , no c o r r e l a t i o n
c o e f f i c i e n t s w e re c o m p u te d . R a t h e r , mean raw s c o r e s f o r
a l l i n d i c e s w e re c o n v e r t e d t o t h e i r n a t i o n a l norm
p e r c e n t i l e e q u i v a l e n t s an d d i f f e r e n c e s b e tw e e n t h e two
a d m i n i s t r a t i o n s w e re s t u d i e d f o r s i g n i f i c a n c e . The
d i f f e r e n c e b e tw e e n Q s c o r e p e r c e n t i l e s was fo u n d t o b e
33
s i g n i f i c a n t a t t h e o n e p e r c e n t l e v e l , t h e d i f f e r e n c e i n
L s c o r e p e r c e n t i l e s a t t h e tw o p e r c e n t l e v e l , a n d t h e
d i f f e r e n c e i n T s c o r e p e r c e n t i l e s a t t h e f i v e p e r c e n t
l e v e l .
A w e a k n e s s i n t h i s r e s e a r c h p l a n s e e m s n o t e w o r t h y .
I t i n v o l v e s t h e c o m p a r i s o n o f p e r c e n t i l e s c o r e s f r o m tw o
s e p a r a t e e d i t i o n s o f t h e ACE f o r e a c h o f w h i c h t h e
n a t i o n a l n o r m s w e r e b a s e d on e n t i r e l y d i f f e r e n t s a m p l e s .
A p r e f e r a b l e p l a n w o u ld h a v e b e e n t o s t u d y t h e
s i g n i f i c a n c e o f d i f f e r e n c e s b e t w e e n T o t a l ra w s c o r e s f o r
w h i c h , a c c o r d i n g t o t h e ACE’ s p u b l i s h e r s , n e c e s s a r y
a d j u s t m e n t s h a v e b e e n m ade t o a s s u r e c o m p a r a b i l i t y
b e t w e e n s u c c e s s i v e e d i t i o n s . T h i s a p p r o a c h c o u l d h a v e
b e e n J u s t i f i e d w i t h o u t d i f f i c u l t y .
A t h i r d s t u d y w as r e p o r t e d b y S i l v e y ( 7 0 ) a t Io w a
S t a t e T e a c h e r s C o l l e g e . I n t h i s c a s e , t h e 1 9 ^ 5 ACE w as
a d m i n i s t e r e d t w i c e t o 517 s t u d e n t s , f i r s t a s e n t e r i n g
f r e s h m e n a n d l a t e r a s s e c o n d s e m e s t e r s o p h o m o r e s . P e a r s o n
c o e f f i c i e n t s o f c o r r e l a t i o n b e t w e e n t h e tw o
a d m i n i s t r a t i o n s w e r e . 8 3 , . 8 1 , a n d , 7 b f o r t h e Q, L , a n d
T s c o r e s r e s p e c t i v e l y . C o e f f i c i e n t s f o r men a l o n e w e r e
. 7 2 , . 7 5 t a n d . 8 2 , w h i l e f o r women a l o n e t h e y w e r e . 7 6 ,
. 9 2 , a n d . 8 8 . I n v i e w o f i t s u s e o f t h e t e s t - r e t e s t
t e c h n i q u e , t h e s t u d y w as h a m p e r e d b y s u c h p r o b l e m s a s
p r a c t i c e e f f e c t a n d i n t e r i m l e a r n i n g .
34
The l a s t s t u d y -was t h e l e a s t u s e f u l . I n t h i s c a s e ,
Thomann (7 7 ) s o u g h t t o e s t a b l i s h r e l i a b i l i t y b y
c o r r e l a t i n g p e r f o r m a n c e on t h e s e c o n d a r y l e v e l ACE w i t h
s u b s e q u e n t p e r f o r m a n c e on t h e c o l l e g e l e v e l ACE. H is
s a m p le i n v o l v e d 603 s t u d e n t s who h a d c o m p l e t e d two
s e m e s t e r s a t t h e U n i v e r s i t y o f I l l i n o i s , who h a d t a k e n
t h e 1940 ACE up o n e n t r a n c e , an d who h a d p r e v i o u s l y t a k e n
e i t h e r t h e 193 9 o r t h e 1944 s e c o n d a r y ACE d u r i n g t h e
s p r i n g s e m e s t e r s o f t h e i r J u n i o r o r s e n i o r y e a r s i n h i g h
s c h o o l . P e a r s o n c o r r e l a t i o n s f o r s t u d e n t s who w e re h i g h
s c h o o l s J u n i o r s when t a k i n g t h e f i r s t t e s t w e re . 6 5 2 ,
.6 4 1 , and .7 0 4 f o r t h e Q, L, an d T s c o r e s r e s p e c t i v e l y
w h i l e t h e c o r r e s p o n d i n g c o e f f i c i e n t s f o r s e n i o r s w e re
. 7 0 8 , . 7 6 0 , a n d .7 7 9 .
T h r e e p o p u l a r t e x t b o o k s i n t h e r e a l m o f
p s y c h o l o g i c a l t e s t i n g w e re r e v i e w e d In q u e s t o f
a d d i t i o n a l d a t a on r e l i a b i l i t y . R e s u l t s w e re m e a g e r .
Two ( l , 15) q u o t e d t h e f i n d i n g s o f a 1939 s t u d y i n w h ic h
t h e o d d - e v e n c o e f f i c i e n t s o f . 8 7 , . 95» and .9 5 w e re
g i v e n f o r t h e Q, L , an d T s c o r e s r e s p e c t i v e l y w h i l e t h e
t h i r d (8) g a v e o n l y a f i g u r e f o r t h e T o t a l S c o r e , . 8 3 ,
w h ic h w as b a s e d on a t e s t - r e t e s t s t u d y o f 286 c o l l e g e
women I n t h e e a r l y 1 9 4 0 s .
W ith r e f e r e n c e s p e c i f i c a l l y t o t h e 1952 e d i t i o n ' s
r e l i a b i l i t y , no p u b l i s h e d f i g u r e s c o u l d be f o u n d .
H o w ev er, an i n q u i r y a d d r e s s e d t o E d u c a t i o n a l T e s t i n g
S e r v i c e d i d b r i n g some h e l p f u l i n f o r m a t i o n (1 0 2 ) . The
p u b l i s h e r s d i d n o t a c t u a l l y i n v e s t i g a t e t h i s e d i t i o n ' s
r e l i a b i l i t y . R a t h e r a d e q u a t e r e l i a b i l i t y was a ssu m e d t o
e x i s t b e c a u s e o f t h e p r e c i s e way i n w h ic h i t h a d b e e n
e q u a t e d w i t h t h e 19^9 e d i t i o n a n d , i n t u r n , b e c a u s e t h e
e a r l i e r e d i t i o n ' s r e l i a b i l i t y h a d b e e n e s t a b l i s h e d a t
.9 2 , .9 ^ j and .9 6 f o r e a c h o f t h e t h r e e s c o r e s . T h e s e
v a l u e s w e re b a s e d on a s t u d y o f 787 e n t e r i n g c o l l e g e
f r e s h m e n who h a d f i r s t t a k e n t h e f u l l i n s t r u m e n t and had
l a t e r t a k e n a s h o r t e r , p a r a l l e l fo rm ( 1 7 ) .
I n sum m ary, i n f o r m a t i o n c o n c e r n i n g t h e ACE's
r e l i a b i l i t y i s l i m i t e d . T h i s i s p a r t i c u l a r l y t r u e
r e g a r d i n g t h e 1952 e d i t i o n . H o w ever, c o e f f i c i e n t s
o f f e r e d by E d u c a t i o n a l T e s t i n g S e r v i c e f o r t h e 19 ^9
e d i t i o n a r e s a t i s f a c t o r y a n d , c o n s i d e r i n g t h e c a r e w i t h
w h ic h t h e two e d i t i o n s h a v e b e e n e q u a t e d , i t c a n be
s a f e l y assu m e d t h a t t h e s e same v a l u e s a r e r e a s o n a b l e
a p p r o x i m a t i o n s o f t h e l a t e r e d i t i o n ' s r e l i a b i l i t y a s
w e l l . C o e f f i c i e n t s s e c u r e d t h r o u g h o t h e r s o u r c e s w ere
n o t a s e n c o u r a g i n g , a l t h o u g h one m u st c o n s i d e r t h a t
s e v e r a l a p p r o a c h e s t o t h e s t u d y o f r e l i a b i l i t y w e re u s e d
an d t h a t n u m b e rs i n a l l c a s e s w e re l e s s t h a n 787* i . e . ,
t h e s i z e o f t h e s a m p le fro m w h ic h E d u c a t i o n a l T e s t i n g
S e r v i c e c o m p u ted i t s c o e f f i c i e n t s f o r t h e 19 ^9 e d i t i o n .
36
V a l i d i t y o f t h e ACE
U n l i k e t h e v e r y s m a l l s u p p l y o f I n f o r m a t i o n w h ic h
w a s a v a i l a b l e on r e l i a b i l i t y , a w e a l t h o f m a t e r i a l w as
f o u n d r e g a r d i n g v a l i d a t i o n s t u d i e s . A t t e m p t s h a v e b e e n
m ade t o v a l i d a t e t h e ACE f o r a b r o a d a r r a y o f p u r p o s e s .
H o w e v e r, a t t e n t i o n i n t h i s p a p e r i s f o c u s e d on t h o s e
w h i c h h a v e u s e d c o l l e g e g r a d e s a s c r i t e r i a . R e f e r e n c e s
w e r e s e c u r e d f r o m tw o s o u r c e s : T h e E d u c a t i o n I n d e x
(5* 6 , 7> 16) a n d t h e F o u r t h M e n t a l M e a s u r e m e n t s
y e a r b o o k ( 4 ) . S t u d i e s r e v i e w e d i n t h i s c h a p t e r a r e
o r g a n i z e d i n f i v e c a t e g o r i e s .
The f i r s t c a t e g o r y i n v o l v e s t h o s e i n w h ic h ACE
s c o r e s w e r e c o r r e l a t e d w i t h t o t a l g r a d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s
c o m p u te d a t t h e e n d o f t h e f i r s t f r e s h m a n g r a d i n g p e r i o d .
I n tw o c a s e s , t h e f i r s t g r a d i n g p e r i o d w a s an a c a d e m ic
q u a r t e r . R e p o r t i n g on a s t u d y i n v o l v i n g 202 f r e s h m e n ,
B o l t o n (2 4 ) f o u n d P e a r s o n c o e f f i c i e n t s o f .5 1 3 * .5 9 9 * a n d
.6 0 5 b e tw e e n f i r s t q u a r t e r g r a d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s a n d Q,
L , a n d T s c o r e s r e s p e c t i v e l y . I n a n o t h e r i n v e s t i g a t i o n ,
O s b o r n e , S a n d e r s , a n d G r e e n e ( 6 l ) f o u n d c o e f f i c i e n t s o f
•^5* . 5 0 * a n d .5 3 b e t w e e n t h e f a l l q u a r t e r g r a d e p o i n t
a v e r a g e s o f a l l U n i v e r s i t y o f G e o r g i a f r e s h m e n I n 19 4 6
a n d t h e t h r e e ACE s c o r e s .
B e c a u s e m o s t c o l l e g e s o p e r a t e on t h e s e m e s t e r p l a n ,
t h e m a j o r i t y o f s t u d i e s i n t h i s c a t e g o r y r e l i e d on g r a d e
p o i n t a v e r a g e s e a r n e d d u r i n g t h e f i r s t s e m e s t e r r a t h e r
t h a n t h e f i r s t q u a r t e r . L i n s (49) r e v i e w e d t h e f i r s t
s e m e s t e r r e c o r d s o f 1789 f r e s h m e n a t t h e U n i v e r s i t y o f
W i s c o n s in i n 1948., r e s t r i c t i n g h i s a t t e n t i o n t o t h e ACE
T o t a l S c o r e an d t o g r a d u a t e s o f W is c o n s in h i g h s c h o o l s .
C o r r e l a t i o n s o f . 4 l 6 an d .4 8 9 w e re o b t a i n e d f o r men and
women r e s p e c t i v e l y . Long a n d P e r r y (50) c o m p i l e d f i r s t
s e m e s t e r g r a d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s f o r 662 C i t y C o l l e g e o f New
Y o rk f r e s h m e n an d d i s c o v e r e d a c o r r e l a t i o n o f .3 6 w i t h
t h e ACE T o t a l S c o r e . M i l l i g a n , L i n s , a n d L i t t l e (54)
c o r r e l a t e d t h e f i r s t s e m e s t e r g r a d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s o f
f i f t y - f i v e U n i v e r s i t y o f W is c o n s in f r e s h m e n , n o n e o f whom
h a d g r a d u a t e d fro m h i g h s c h o o l , w i t h ACE T o t a l S c o r e s an d
s e c u r e d a c o r r e l a t i o n o f .3 0 9 . I n a s t u d y o f a l l
f r e s h m e n a t t h e U n i v e r s i t y o f M ic h ig a n i n 1947* W a lla c e
(8 6 ) fo u n d c o r r e l a t i o n s b e tw e e n f i r s t s e m e s t e r a v e r a g e s
an d Q, L, a n d T s c o r e s o f .2 8 6 , . 3 6 0 , and .4 0 0
r e s p e c t i v e l y . F i n a l l y , two s t u d i e s w e re c o n d u c t e d i n
c o n j u n c t i o n w i t h t h e S e l e c t i v e S e r v i c e C o l l e g e
Q u a l i f i c a t i o n T e s t s e r i e s i n t h e e a r l y 1 9 5 0 s . Among n i n e
g r o u p s o f t e s t e e s i n A p r i l , 1 9 5 2 , c o r r e l a t i o n s b e tw e e n
ACE T s c o r e s an d f i r s t s e m e s t e r g r a d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s
r a n g e d fro m .2 8 t o .4 9 w i t h a m e d ia n v a l u e o f .4 2 ( 9 6 ) .
A s i m i l a r s t u d y i n May, 1 9 5 1 > y i e l d e d an i d e n t i c a l m ed ian
v a l u e o f .4 2 .
The s e c o n d c a t e g o r y i n v o l v e d a s e t o f s t u d i e s i n
w h ic h t h e c r i t e r i a w e re g r a d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s b a s e d on
m a r k s r e c e i v e d d u r i n g t h e e n t i r e f r e s h m a n y e a r . I n o n e o f
t h e s e , B e r d i e , D r e s s e l , a n d K e l3 o (2 2 ) s t u d i e d t h e
1 9 4 9 - 5 0 f r e s h m a n c l a s s e s i n t h i r t e e n i n s t i t u t i o n s .
C o r r e l a t i o n s b e tw e e n t h e c r i t e r i o n a n d ACE T o t a l S c o r e s
v a r i e d fro m .2 5 t o .6 6 f o r women a n d fro m .2 6 t o .5 8 f o r
men; b e tw e e n t h e c r i t e r i o n a n d ACE Q, s c o r e s , f ro m .1 5 t o
.5 5 f o r women a n d fro m .1 7 t o .5 0 f o r men; a n d , b e tw e e n
t h e c r i t e r i o n a n d ACE L s c o r e s , fro m .1 8 t o .6 5 f o r women
a n d fro m .2 2 t o .5 1 f o r m en. I n a l l c a s e s , t h e u p p e r e n d s
o f t h e r a n g e s f o r women e x c e e d e d t h o s e f o r m en. I n
a n o t h e r s t u d y , B o l t o n (2 4 ) f o u n d t h a t 202 s t u d e n t s ' Q, L,
a n d T s c o r e s c o r r e l a t e d w i t h f i r s t y e a r a v e r a g e s a t .511*
. 6 2 7 , a n d .6 3 2 r e s p e c t i v e l y . Brown ( 2 9 ) a f t e r r e v i e w i n g
f i r s t y e a r r e c o r d s o f 124 L ong B e a c h C i t y C o l l e g e s t u d e n t s ,
f o u n d t h a t t h e i r g r a d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s c o r r e l a t e d w i t h ACE
s c o r e s a s f o l l o w s : .3 4 ( q ) , .3 2 ( L ) , and .4 0 ( T ) .
Among other studies in this group, one by Cochran
and Davis (3 2 ) yielded an interesting reversal. Instead
of the Q Score producing the lowest correlation, at .4 4
it slightly surpassed correlations for both the L
(r, . 3 6 ) and the T (r, .4 3 ) scores. This study was based
on the freshman averages of 216 students. Osborne,
Sanders, and Greene (6l), employing first year grade
39
p o i n t a v e r a g e s e a r n e d by 958 U n i v e r s i t y o f G e o r g ia
s t u d e n t s , fo u n d P e a r s o n c o e f f i c i e n t s o f .4 0 , .4-7, and .4 9
f o r t h e Q, L, and T s c o r e s r e s p e c t i v e l y . M e r r i l l and
H e a t h e r s (53) c o r r e l a t e d t h e f i r s t y e a r a v e r a g e s o f 251
U n i v e r s i t y o f W a sh in g to n men w i t h t h e i r ACE s c o r e s and
s e c u r e d c o e f f i c i e n t s o f .2 7 (Q ), .3 9 ( L ) , and .4 0 ( t ) .
F i n a l l y , W a lla c e ( 8 5 ) fo u n d c o e f f i c i e n t s o f .2 9 2 , .3 7 0 ,
and .4 10 when h e c o r r e l a t e d 323 U n i v e r s i t y o f M ic h ig a n
s t u d e n t s ' Q, L, and T s c o r e s w ith t h e i r fre s h m a n
a v e r a g e s .
The t h i r d c a t e g o r y i n v o l v e d s t u d i e s i n w hich
c r i t e r i o n g r a d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s w ere b a s e d on m arks
a c c u m u la te d o v e r a two y e a r p e r i o d . At an unnamed
m u n i c i p a l j u n i o r c o l l e g e , B u ra c k (30) re v ie w e d t h e
p r o g r e s s o f s t u d e n t s t h r o u g h a sp a n o f two y e a r s ,
com puted t h e i r g r a d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s , and c o r r e l a t e d
t h e s e w ith t h e i r fre s h m a n ACE T S c o r e s . The r e s u l t was a
c o e f f i c i e n t o f .5 9 5 . In a n o t h e r i n v e s t i g a t i o n , H e sto n
(42) s t u d i e d two g r o u p s o f 100 sophom ore women a t
DePauw U n i v e r s i t y . In one c a s e , ACE T S c o r e s c o r r e l a t e d
w ith t h e t w o - y e a r c u m u l a t i v e g r a d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s a t .3 9 .
In t h e o t h e r , t h e c o r r e l a t i o n was .5 5 . When t h e two
g ro u p s w ere c o m b in ed , a c o r r e l a t i o n o f .4 7 was s e c u r e d .
F i n a l l y , H e n d e rso n and M alueg (103) c o m p ile d t h e tw o - y e a r
g r a d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s o f 232 s t u d e n t s a t Los A n g e le s C i ty
40
( j u n i o r ) C o l l e g e , d i s r e g a r d i n g w h e t h e r t h e y w e re e n r o l l e d
i n u n i v e r s i t y p a r a l l e l o r t e r m i n a l c u r r i c u l a . The
c o r r e l a t i o n b e tw e e n t h e s e a v e r a g e s a n d ACE T S c o r e s ,
s e c u r e d when t h e s t u d e n t s w e re e n t e r i n g f r e s h m e n , w as
. 5 9 . A n t i c i p a t i n g t h e p o s s i b i l i t y o f a n o t i c e a b l y
h i g h e r c o e f f i c i e n t , t h e y l a t e r r e f i n e d t h e s a m p le by
r e s t r i c t i n g i t t o o n l y t h o s e s t u d e n t s e n r o l l e d i n
u n i v e r s i t y p a r a l l e l c u r r i c u l a . T h e y d i s c o v e r e d , h o w e v e r ,
t h a t r e s t r i c t i n g t h e s a m p l e 's r a n g e p r o d u c e d a s m a l l e r
( r , .4 7 ) r a t h e r t h a n a l a r g e r c o e f f i c i e n t .
The fourth category involved a limited number of
studies in which grade point averages were based on marks
received over a four-year span. In a study conducted by
Grater and Thalman ( 4 l ) at Southern Illinois University,
men's four-year grade point averages correlated with Q,
L, an d T s c o r e s a t . 2 3 , . 2 8 , a n d .3 2 w h i l e w o m e n 's g r a d e
p o i n t a v e r a g e s c o r r e l a t e d a t . 6 8 , . 4 2 , a n d . 5 8 . S a l l e y
a n d W e i n t r a u b (6 4 ) c o m p i l e d t h e c u m u l a t i v e g r a d e p o i n t
a v e r a g e s o f 589 women g r a d u a t e s o f H u n t e r C o l l e g e In 1 9 4 7 ,
c o r r e l a t e d th em w i t h ACE T S c o r e s s e c u r e d f o u r y e a r s
e a r l i e r , a n d d e r i v e d a c o e f f i c i e n t o f .3 3 - In
s u m m a r i z i n g s t u d i e s o f t h i s t y p e , A n a s t a s ! ( l ) a n d S u p e r
( 1 5 ) h a v e g e n e r a l i z e d t h a t c o e f f i c i e n t s t e n d t o
c o n g r e g a t e a r o u n d .4 5 .
The f i n a l c a t e g o r y e n c o m p a s s e d s e v e n t e e n s t u d i e s i n
w h ic h r e l a t i o n s h i p s w e re i n v e s t i g a t e d b e tw e e n e n t r a n c e
ACE s c o r e s a n d tw o t y p e s o f c r i t e r i a : M arks i n s p e c i f i c
s u b j e c t s an d g r a d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s i n g r o u p s o f r e l a t e d
s u b j e c t s . W ith r e s p e c t t o t h e f o r m e r , f o u r seem w o r th y
o f n o t e . B e r d i e a n d S u t t e r (2 3) s t u d i e d t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p
b e tw e e n ACE T o t a l S c o r e s an d g r a d e s i n f i r s t q u a r t e r
c h e m i s t r y f o r 301 U n i v e r s i t y o f M i n n e s o t a f r e s h m e n
m a j o r i n g e i t h e r i n c h e m i s t r y o r i n c h e m i c a l e n g i n e e r i n g .
F o r s t u d e n t s who h a d t a k e n h i g h s c h o o l c h e m i s t r y , t h e
c o r r e l a t i o n was .2 8 w h i l e f o r t h o s e who h a d n o t i t was
.0 1 . At t h e U n i v e r s i t y o f Wyoming, P o r t e n i e r (62)
c o r r e l a t e d m a rk s i n a f i r s t q u a r t e r i n t r o d u c t o r y
p s y c h o l o g y c o u r s e w i t h s t u d e n t s ' T a n d L s c o r e s and
s e c u r e d c o e f f i c i e n t s o f .4 7 1 a n d .5 0 1 r e s p e c t i v e l y .
O s b o rn e , S a n d e r s , and G re e n e (60) s t u d i e d t h e
r e l a t i o n s h i p s b e tw e e n ACE s c o r e s and m a rk s i n e i g h t f i r s t
q u a r t e r f r e s h m a n c o u r s e s . E x c e p t f o r tw o c o e f f i c i e n t s a t
.5 7 , a l l f e l l b e tw e e n .33 a n d . 5 0 . I n a n o t h e r s t u d y ,
W a lla c e (8 5 ) i n v e s t i g a t e d t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p s b e tw e e n
e n t r a n c e ACE s c o r e s a n d g r a d e s i n t h e e i g h t e e n l a r g e s t
f i r s t s e m e s t e r f r e s h m a n c o u r s e s a t t h e U n i v e r s i t y o f
M i c h ig a n . He f o u n d f o u r c o r r e l a t i o n s a b o v e . 4 0 , e l e v e n
b e tw e e n .3 0 and . 3 9 , t e n b e tw e e n .2 0 and . 2 9 , t e n
42
between .10 and .19# and one below .1 0 . The lowest, .0 7 8 ,
Involved the elementary Spanlsh-ACE L correlation.
W ith r e g a r d t o s t u d i e s o f th e r e l a t i o n s h i p betw een
e n tr a n c e ACE s c o r e s and g ra d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s In group s o f
r e l a t e d s u b j e c t s , t h r e e d e s e r v e b r i e f m e n tio n . At C ity
C o lle g e o f New Y ork, Long and P e rry ( 50) com p iled th e
ACE T S c o re s a t tim e o f e n t r a n c e and th e f i r s t s e m e s te r
g ra d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s f o r two g ro u p s o f s t u d e n t s , one
from b u s i n e s s a d m i n i s t r a t i o n and th e o t h e r from
e n g i n e e r i n g . The c o r r e l a t i o n f o r b u s i n e s s s t u d e n t s was
.36 w h ile t h a t f o r e n g in e e r i n g s t u d e n t s was .3 2 . In
a n o t h e r s tu d y , Treumann and S u l l i v a n (80) computed f i r s t
s e m e s te r g ra d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s f o r 215 e n g in e e r i n g
fresh m en a t th e U n i v e r s i t y o f W isco n sin and found
c o r r e l a t i o n s w ith Q, L, and T s c o r e s o f . 4 l , . 2 6 , and
.4 0 . In th e t h i r d s tu d y , Remmers and E l l i o t t (63 ) a t
Purdue d i v id e d a l l f i r s t s e m e s te r freshm an c o u r s e s i n t o
seven s u b j e c t m a t t e r a r e a s and c o r r e l a t e d s t u d e n t s '
e n t r a n c e ACE s c o r e s w ith t h e i r r e s p e c t i v e g ra d e p o i n t
a v e r a g e s among c o u r s e s co m p lete d in each a r e a . With
t h r e e e x c e p t i o n s , a l l r e s u l t i n g c o e f f i c i e n t s f e l l
betw een .30 and .4 0 .
Many other studies could be reviewed. However,
the foregoing selection should represent an adequate
sampling of the varied reports on research studies
43
designed to validate the ACE for scholastic prediction.
In summary, a vast quantity of data Is available
concerning the ACE's validity as an Instrument for
predicting college grades and grade point averages. On
the surface, the multitude of correlation coefficients
presented In preceding paragraphs may seem quite
confusing. However, certain generalizations may be
noted. First, the size of correlations tended to
decrease slightly as the period over which grades were
collected increased. Second, as criteria became more
specific, the variability of coefficients tended to
Increase. Third, in terms of predictive efficiency, the
T Score proved itself to be the best, the L Score second,
and the Q Score third. Fourth, although many
coefficients seemed promising, they were generally of
limited value for use in the guidance of individuals.
Fifth, because of the broad range among coefficients
reported, it appeared that the ACE's most efficient use
was achieved when validated separately by institutions
for the various purposes and types of students each
preferred.
44
I I . THE IOWA TESTS QF EDUCATIONAL DEVELOPMENT
D e s c r i p t i o n o f t h e ITED
A lso u s e d In t h i s s t u d y w ere t h e Iow a T e s t s o f
E d u c a t i o n a l D e v elo p m en t ( 9 8 ) . B a s i c a l l y , t h e s e t e s t s
a r e an a c h ie v e m e n t b a t t e r y d e s i g n e d f o r g r a d e s n i n e
t h r o u g h t w e l v e . W ith in t h e a r e a o f a c h ie v e m e n t t e s t i n g ,
t h e y hav e g a in e d c o n s i d e r a b l e a t t e n t i o n b e c a u s e o f t h e i r
d e p a r t u r e fro m t h e t r a d i t i o n a l a p p ro a c h t o 3uch
m e a s u re m e n t. In p l a c e o f q u e s t i o n s d e a l i n g e x c l u s i v e l y
w ith r e c o g n i t i o n o f s p e c i f i c f a c t u a l m a t e r i a l , t h e
a u t h o r s h av e a t t e m p t e d t o s t r u c t u r e v e r b a l s e t t i n g s in
w hich s t u d e n t s can d e m o n s t r a t e t h e i r kno w led g e t h r o u g h
a p p l i c a t i o n o f s u b j e c t m a t t e r t o p r a c t i c a l s i t u a t i o n s .
T i t l e s o f t h e n i n e t e s t s a r e a s f o l l o w s :
1. U n d e r s t a n d i n g o f B a s ic S o c i a l C o n c e p ts
2. G e n e r a l B a c k g ro u n d i n N a t u r a l S c i e n c e s
3 . C o r r e c t n e s s and A p p r o p r i a t e n e s s o f E x p r e s s i o n
4. A b i l i t y t o do Q u a n t i t a t i v e T h in k in g
5. A b i l i t y t o I n t e r p r e t R e a d in g M a t e r i a l s in
S o c i a l S t u d i e s
6 . A b i l i t y t o I n t e r p r e t R e a d in g M a t e r i a l s i n
t h e N a t u r a l S c i e n c e s
7 . A b i l i t y t o I n t e r p r e t L i t e r a r y M a t e r i a l s
8 . G e n e r a l V o c a b u la r y
9. Use o f S o u r c e s o f I n f o r m a t i o n
In a d d i t i o n t o s e p a r a t e s c o r e s f o r e a c h t e s t , a C o m p o site
S c o re i s a l s o p r o v i d e d t o w hich e a c h o f t h e f i r s t e i g h t
t e s t s c o n t r i b u t e s e q u a l l y . The n i n t h t e s t I s n o t
i n c l u d e d i n t h e C o m p o site S c o r e .
45
Reliability of the ITED
Preparation of ITED reliability coefficients
followed a five step pattern (93:20, 90:30). First, the
tests were administered in several high schools of
varying sizes. Second, answer sheets were sorted first
by high schools and then by grade levels within each high
school. Third, using the odd-even technique, reliability
coefficients were computed for each test at each grade
level within each school. All coefficients were
corrected by the Spearman-Brown formula. Fourth,
coefficients secured for each test were combined without
regard for the particular high school or class level of
origin. Fifth, after all nine summations were complete,
"specially weighted averages [werd] computed by the
methods of analysis of varience and co-variance,"
Lindquist (90:30) has described the results as
"within-grades within-schools" reliability coefficients.
Table I contains the coefficients together with the
numbers of pupils and schools on which they were based.
The coefficient presented for the Composite Score was
estimated from the individual tests' reliabilities and
their Intercorrelations with each other.
b 6
TA BLE I . —R e lia b ility c o e ffic ie n ts f o r th e Iowa T ests of E ducational
Development
Foim X
Sample Used
____________________ W ithin-grade8
T est
No. of
Schools
No. of
P u p ils
W ithin-B chools
R e lia b ility
C o e ffic ie n ts
1 8 890 .92
2 8
871 .86
3 3
720 .92
b
3
720 .86
5
8 1220
.91
6 8 101+1 .90
7
8 868 .90
8
3
720
.93
9 3
720 .O k
Form Y
1 8
851 .89
2 8 8^7 .88
3 5
672
• 9^
b
5
672 .Q b
5
8
1199
.90
6 8 1022 •90
7
8 850 .90
8
5
672 .90
9*
5 673
.81
C .96'
^Sources: (90:30) and (9 3 :20).
Composite Score.
An e stim ated r e l i a b i l i t y c o e f f ic ie n t (93:20).
47
V a l i d i t y o f th e ITED
Among th e v a r i o u s ty p e s o f v a l i d i t y m easu res
commonly a g re e d upon ( l ) , e m p i r i c a l v a l i d i t y I s th e
p r e f e r r e d form In t e s t c o n s t r u c t i o n . Under most
c i r c u m s t a n c e s , o t h e r a p p ro a c h e s a r e s u b s t i t u t e d o n ly when
means f o r e s t a b l i s h i n g e m p i r i c a l v a l i d i t y a r e n o t
a v a i l a b l e . In a s s e m b lin g th e ITED, L i n d q u i s t and
a s s o c i a t e s w ere c o n c e rn e d w ith th e m easurem ent o f
e d u c a t i o n a l g ro w th , a c o n c e p t which th e y w ere u n a b le to
su b m it t o e m p i r i c a l v a l i d a t i o n . As a c o n se q u e n c e , when
u se d f o r t h e i r i n te n d e d p u rp o s e , th e ITED a r e
c h a r a c t e r i z e d by c o n t e n t v a l i d i t y , n o t by e m p i r i c a l
v a l i d i t y . L i n d q u i s t h as d i s c u s s e d t h i s t o p i c a t l e n g t h
in a p a m p h let which acco m p an ies th e t e s t s ( 9 0 : 2 8- 2 9 ) .
In t h i s s tu d y , th e ITED w ere n o t u se d f o r t h e i r
in te n d e d p u rp o s e . R a th e r , th e y were u se d a s in s t r u m e n t s
o f s c h o l a s t i c p r e d i c t i o n . Thus, th e r e s e a r c h s t u d i e s
s e l e c t e d f o r re v ie w in t h i s c h a p t e r w ere l i m i t e d t o th o s e
c o n c e rn e d w ith v a l i d a t i n g th e ITED f o r th e p r e d i c t i o n o f
academ ic s u c c e s s a s m easured by c o l l e g e m arks.
V a l i d a t i o n s t u d i e s o f th e ITED's e f f i c i e n c y in
s c h o l a s t i c p r e d i c t i o n were n o t so p l e n t i f u l as th e y were
f o r th e ACE. In 1957, th e t e s t s ' p u b l i s h e r , S c ie n c e
R e se a rc h A s s o c i a t e s , i s s u e d a p a m p h let c o n t a i n i n g
sum m aries o f a l l known p r e d i c t i o n s t u d i e s in which th e
48
ITED had been em ployed ( 9 3 ) . Among th e f i n d i n g s , t h r e e
s t u d i e s w ere p r e s e n t e d in w hich ITED s c o r e s had been
c o r r e l a t e d w ith c o l l e g e g ra d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s . In one
c a s e , Rhum (9 3 :7 - 8 ) r e p o r t e d c o r r e l a t i o n s betw een ITED
C om posite S c o re s and f i r s t y e a r c o l l e g e a v e r a g e s f o r
1090 s t u d e n t s in s i x Iowa c o l l e g e s . A ll o f th e s t u d e n t s
I n v o lv e d had been h ig h s c h o o l fresh m e n In 1 9 4 2 -1 9 4 3 , had
g r a d u a t e d from h ig h s c h o o l In th e s p r i n g o f 1946, had
ta k e n th e ITED In th e n i n t h g ra d e a n d / o r th e t w e l f t h
g r a d e , and had i n i t i a t e d t h e i r c o l l e g e s t u d i e s a t one o f
th e s i x i n s t i t u t i o n s d u r i n g e i t h e r th e summer s e s s i o n o r
th e f a l l s e m e s te r o f 1946. When d i s r e g a r d i n g th e v a r i o u s
s o u r c e s o f h i s d a t a , Rhum fo und c o r r e l a t i o n s o f .5 8 and
.59 betw een f i r s t y e a r c o l l e g e g ra d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s and ,
r e s p e c t i v e l y , n i n t h g ra d e C om posite S c o re s and t w e l f t h
g ra d e C om posite S c o r e s . C o e f f i c i e n t s w ere a l s o r e p o r t e d
f o r t h r e e o f th e s i x i n s t i t u t i o n s s e p a r a t e l y . In th e
same o r d e r , c o r r e l a t i o n s g iv e n f o r S t a t e U n i v e r s i t y o f
Iowa s t u d e n t s w ere .6 3 and .5 4 , f o r Iowa S t a t e C o lle g e
s t u d e n t s .5 6 and .6 0 , and f o r Iowa S t a t e T e a c h e rs
C o lle g e s t u d e n t s .60 and .7 1 . When s t u d e n t s who had
t a k e n th e ITED b o th In th e n i n t h and in th e t w e l f t h g r a d e s
were I s o l a t e d , t h e i r n i n t h g ra d e C om posite S c o re s
c o r r e l a t e d a t .57 w ith f i r s t y e a r a v e r a g e s and t h e i r
t w e l f t h g ra d e s c o r e s a t . 6 2 . A lth o u g h t w e l f t h g ra d e
49
Com posite S c o re s g e n e r a l l y s u p p l i e d b e t t e r c o r r e l a t i o n s
th r o u g h o u t th e s tu d y , d i f f e r e n c e s betw een them and
c o r r e l a t i o n s u s i n g n i n t h g ra d e d a t a w ere s m a ll .
A s i m i l a r i n v e s t i g a t i o n was c o n d u c te d by
B a u e m f e i n d and M asia ( 9 3 : 8 - 1 0 ) , a l s o in Iowa, in which
t w e l f t h g ra d e C om posite S c o re s w ere l i k e w i s e c o r r e l a t e d
w ith fresh m an g ra d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s . The s tu d y was
l i m i t e d to 3 4 4 l s t u d e n t s who had g r a d u a te d from Iowa h ig h
s c h o o ls in th e s p r i n g o f 1949, 1 9 5 0 , and 1 9 5 1 * who had
ta k e n th e ITED a s f i r s t s e m e s te r h ig h s c h o o l s e n i o r s , and
who had c o n tin u e d t h e i r e d u c a ti o n s in any o f tw e lv e Iowa
c o l l e g e s . C o r r e l a t i o n s betw een C om posite S c o re s and
freshm an g rad e p o i n t a v e r a g e s w ere: .59 a t th e S t a t e
U n i v e r s i t y o f Iowa; .47 a t Drake U n i v e r s i t y ; .60 a t Iowa
S t a t e C o lle g e ; .6 8 a t Iowa S t a t e T e a c h e rs C o lle g e ; .48 a t
Mason C ity J u n i o r C o lle g e ; .55 and .6 8 a t two l i b e r a l a r t s
C a th o l i c c o l l e g e s ; and .6 0 , . 6 5 , . 6 9 , and .7 5 a t f o u r
l i b e r a l a r t s c o l l e g e s w ith p r o t e s t a n t a f f i l i a t i o n s ; and
.72 a t one p r i v a t e l i b e r a l a r t s c o l l e g e . T hus, among
th e f o u r - y e a r i n s t i t u t i o n s , c o e f f i c i e n t s ran g e d from .47
th ro u g h . 7 2 .
F i n a l l y , R ootes (9 3 : l l ) s t u d i e d th e r e l a t i o n s h i p
betw een t w e l f t h g ra d e Com posite S c o re s and g ra d e p o i n t
a v e ra g e s In th e f i r s t y e a r o f c o l l e g e u s i n g 197 Oklahoma
s t u d e n t s who had ta k e n th e ITED in th e second s e m e s te r o f
50
t h e t w e l f t h g r a d e a n d who h a d c o n t i n u e d t h e i r e d u c a t i o n s
a t e i t h e r t h e U n i v e r s i t y o f Oklahoma o r O k la h o m a 's
C e n t r a l S t a t e C o l l e g e d u r i n g t h e f o l l o w i n g s c h o o l y e a r .
C o r r e l a t i o n s o f .53 and .5 2 w ere r e p o r t e d f o r t h e two
c r i t e r i o n i n s t i t u t i o n s r e s p e c t i v e l y .
A n o th e r s t u d y by O ' N e i l l (104) was r e p o r t e d
s e p a r a t e l y . S u b s i d i z e d by a g r a n t fro m S c i e n c e R e s e a r c h
A s s o c i a t e s , he i n v e s t i g a t e d t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p s b e tw e e n
f o u r p r e d i c t o r s ( i . e . , ITED s c o r e s , ACE s c o r e s , C o l le g e
E n t r a n c e E x a m in a tio n B o a rd S c h o l a s t i c A p t i t u d e T e s t
s c o r e s , and h i g h s c h o o l g r a d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s ) and
c o l l e g i a t e g r a d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s b a s e d on c l a s s m arks
a c c u m u l a t e d o v e r v a r y i n g p e r i o d s o f t i m e . H is sam ple
i n v o l v e d 686 s t u d e n t s , e a c h o f whom h a d a t t e n d e d one o f
f i f t y - s e v e n h i g h s c h o o l s i n C a l i f o r n i a , h ad t a k e n t h e
ITED a s a h i g h s c h o o l sophom ore o r s e n i o r i n t h e f a l l o f
1 9 5 1 j and had l a t e r c o m p le te d a t l e a s t one y e a r o f f u l l
tim e s t u d y a t one o f t h e f i v e c o l l e g e s and u n i v e r s i t i e s
i n C a l i f o r n i a w h ic h c o o p e r a t e d i n t h e p r o j e c t . F o r
s t u d e n t s who t o o k t h e ITED a s h ig h s c h o o l so p h o m o re s,
c o r r e l a t i o n s b e tw e e n ITED C o m p o site S c o r e s and f i r s t y e a r
g r a d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s r a n g e d from .2 6 t o .6 7 w i t h a mean
v a l u e o f . 4 0 . F o r s t u d e n t s who t o o k t h e ITED a s h ig h
s c h o o l s e n i o r s , c o r r e l a t i o n s b a s e d on t h e same p r e d i c t o r s
and c r i t e r i a v a r i e d fro m .31 t o .6 5 w i t h a mean o f .4 5 .
51
C o r r e l a t i o n s w ere a l s o co m p uted b e tw e e n C o m p o site S c o r e s
and g r a d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s r e p r e s e n t i n g l o n g e r p e r i o d s o f
c o l l e g e s t u d y , b u t , u n l i k e t h o s e b a s e d on f i r s t y e a r
a v e r a g e s , t h e y w ere i n s e v e r a l c a s e s n o t s i g n i f i c a n t a n d ,
a s a c o n s e q u e n c e , a r e b e i n g o m i t t e d h e r e .
In u s i n g t h e c o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t s r e p o r t e d i n
p r e v i o u s p a r a g r a p h s , c a u t i o n m u st be e x e r c i s e d f o r a t
l e a s t two r e a s o n s . F i r s t , a l l d a t a i n t h e f o r e g o i n g
s t u d i e s w e re s e c u r e d i n Io w a , Oklahom a, and C a l i f o r n i a .
How f a r d i s t a n t one c an g e n e r a l i z e t h e s e f i n d i n g s i s open
t o q u e s t i o n , a l t h o u g h L i n d q u i s t h a s o f f e r e d e v id e n c e
w h ic h i n d i c a t e s t h a t Iow a s t u d e n t s a r e a d e q u a t e l y
r e p r e s e n t a t i v e o f y o u th i n t h e n a t i o n a t l a r g e . S e c o n d ,
t h e n u m b ers o f s t u d e n t s u s e d i n s e v e r a l o f t h e s a m p le s
w ere s m a l l . F o r e x a m p le , t h r e e c o e f f i c i e n t s w ere b a s e d on
s a m p le s n u m b e rin g i n t h e t h i r t i e s and two n u m b e rin g i n t h e
f o r t i e s .
I n t e r c o r r e l a t i o n 3 among t h e ITED
B e c a u s e t h e ITED w ere c o n s t r u c t e d w i t h t h e i n t e n t o f
m e a s u r i n g d i s t i n c t a r e a s o f a c h i e v e m e n t , a c h e c k on t h e
b a t t e r y ' s s u c c e s s i n t h i s r e g a r d was e s s e n t i a l .
T h e r e f o r e , w i t h t h e s c o r e s o f 6 7 0 Iow a h i g h s c h o o l
s t u d e n t s fro m g r a d e s n i n e t h r o u g h t w e l v e , i n t e r c o r r e l a t i o n s
w ere co m puted b e tw e e n a l l p o s s i b l e p a i r i n g s o f t h e n i n e
t e s t s ( 9 0 : 3 1 ) . C o e f f i c i e n t s v a r i e d from .397 t o .7 8 1
w ith an a v e r a g e v a lu e o f . 7 1 . The p r o c e d u r e em ployed i n
c o m p u tin g t h e s e c o r r e l a t i o n s f o llo w e d t h e " w i t h i n - g r a d e s
w i t h i n - s c h o o l s " a p p r o a c h . The a u t h o r s l a b e l e d t h e .71
a v e r a g e a s " t h e c o e f f i c i e n t o f d i s c r i m i n a t i n g pow er" and
c o n c lu d e d t h a t " I t c o n s t i t u t e s o b j e c t i v e and c o n c l u s i v e
e v id e n c e t h a t th e v a r i o u s t e s t s i n t h e Iowa b a t t e r y
r e a l l y do m ea su re d i f f e r e n t t h i n g s . " The r e l a t i v e
m a g n itu d e o f t h e a v e r a g e v a lu e ( r , . 7 1 ) was a t t r i b u t e d
i n d i r e c t l y t o t h e d i f f i c u l t y e n c o u n te r e d i n p r e p a r i n g a
b a t t e r y o f a c h ie v e m e n t t e s t s i n w hich o v e r l a p p i n g i s c u t
t o a minimum. A ll I n t e r c o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t s a p p e a r
i n T a b le I I .
I I I . SUMMARY
Two s t a n d a r d i z e d , n a t i o n a l l y d i s t r i b u t e d t e s t s
w ere u s e d In t h i s s t u d y . One, t h e A m erican C o u n c il on
E d u c a tio n P s y c h o l o g i c a l E x a m in a tio n f o r C o lle g e F reshm en,
1952 E d i t i o n , was a m ea su re o f s c h o l a s t i c a p t i t u d e . The
o t h e r , The Iowa T e s t s o f E d u c a t i o n a l D e v elo p m en t, was a
b a t t e r y o f h ig h s c h o o l a c h ie v e m e n t t e s t s . Comments w ere
made r e g a r d i n g t h e i r r e s p e c t i v e r e l i a b i l i t i e s , v a l i d i t i e s ,
and o t h e r n o te w o rth y p o i n t s .
A lth o u g h no l o n g e r b e i n g r e v i s e d , th e ACE i s one o f
t h e b e s t known i n s t r u m e n t s u s e d t o m ea su re c o l l e g i a t e
53
TABLE I I . —I n te r c o r r e la tio n s "between t e s t s In th e Iowa T ests of
E d u catio n al Development, Form Y ®
Test 1 2
3
4
5
6
7
8 C
2 .680
3 .514
.397
4 .681+ .622
• 559
5 • 749
.605 .643 .625
6 .690 .664
.576
.582 .746
7
.658
.559
.648 .544 .781
.737
8 .630 .506
.693 • 537 .745
.671
.753
C .847 .762
.747 .777
.880 .843 .844 .813
9 .598 .556 .566 .582 .664 .671 .613 .611 .718
a Source: L in d q u ist (90:3l)»
54
s c h o l a s t i c a p t i t u d e . R e l i a b i l i t y c o e f f i c i e n t s , w h e re
r e p o r t e d , a r e g e n e r a l l y s a t i s f a c t o r y . F o r e x a m p le , i t s
p u b l i s h e r , E d u c a t i o n a l T e s t i n g S e r v i c e , p r i n t e d t h e
f o l l o w i n g c o e f f i c i e n t s f o r t h e 1949 e d i t i o n b a s e d on a
p a r a l l e l , s h o r t f o rm t e c h n i q u e : .9 2 (Q ), .9 4 (L) , a n d
.9 6 ( T ) . U n f o r t u n a t e l y , t h e r e l i a b i l i t y o f t h e 1952
e d i t i o n was n o t i n v e s t i g a t e d . R e l i a b i l i t y c o m p a r a b l e t o
t h a t e x h i b i t e d by t h e n e x t p r e c e d i n g e d i t i o n ( i . e . , t h e
1949 e d i t i o n ) was assu m e d t o e x i 3 t on t h e b a s i s t h a t t h e
1952 e d i t i o n f o l l o w e d c l o s e l y t h e p r o t o t y p e o f t h e 1 9 4 9 .
I n so f a r a s i t s v a l i d i t y f o r p r e d i c t i n g c o l l e g e g r a d e s
and g r a d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s i s c o n c e r n e d , a w e a l t h o f
m a t e r i a l i s a v a i l a b l e . In g e n e r a l , t h e L a n d T s c o r e s
a p p e a r t o do a s a t i s f a c t o r y Jo b i n t h i s r e g a r d , b u t
r e s e a r c h s u r r o u n d i n g t h e Q S c o r e i s n o t a s e n c o u r a g i n g .
L ik e t h e ACE, t h e ITED a r e a l s o h i g h l y r e g a r d e d ,
a l t h o u g h i n t h e f i e l d o f h i g h s c h o o l a c h i e v e m e n t t e s t i n g
r a t h e r t h a n I n t h e f i e l d o f c o l l e g i a t e s c h o l a s t i c
a p t i t u d e . J u d g e d by t h e g e n e r a l l y a c c e p t e d minimum
s t a n d a r d o f . 9 0 , f i v e o f t h e n i n e t e s t s e x h i b i t
s a t i s f a c t o r y r e l i a b i l i t y c o e f f i c i e n t s w h i l e tw o o t h e r s
J u s t m is s t h e m a rk . C o e f f i c i e n t s f o r t e s t s f o u r an d n i n e
a r e lo w . I n f o r m a t i o n on t h e IT E D 's v a l i d i t y f o r
p r e d i c t i n g s c h o l a s t i c s u c c e s s I n c o l l e g e i s l i m i t e d , b u t
f o u r s t u d i e s w e re l o c a t e d and m o s t c o e f f i c i e n t s r e p o r t e d
55
t h e r e i n e x c e e d e d . 4 0 . I n t e r c o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t s a r e
g e n e r a l l y h i g h e r t h a n commonly d e s i r e d , b u t i n v iew o f
t h e c l o s e a s s o c i a t i o n b e tw e e n some o f t h e m a t e r i a l s
i n v o l v e d one s h o u l d n o t b e s u r p r i s e d t o d i s c o v e r
c o e f f i c i e n t s o f t h e s i z e r e p o r t e d . In g e n e r a l , t h e ITED
seem t o b e q u i t e s a t i s f a c t o r y i n t h e c o n t e x t f o r w hich
t h e y w ere i n t e n d e d , i . e . , m e a su re m e n t o f s e c o n d a r y
s c h o o l a c h i e v e m e n t . L i t e r a t u r e c o n c e r n i n g t h e i r s u c c e s s
in p r e d i c t i n g c o l l e g e g r a d e s and g r a d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s i s
n o t e x t e n s i v e , b u t e n c o u r a g i n g s i g n s h a v e b e en u n c o v e r e d .
CHAPTER IV
AN ANALYSIS OF THE SAMPLE
The sam ple u s e d In t h i s s t u d y was draw n from two
Los A n g e le s J u n i o r c o l l e g e s . A lth o u g h a d m i t t e d l y n o t a
random o n e , t h e a s s u m p tio n was made t h a t i t s members w ere
a d e q u a t e l y r e p r e s e n t a t i v e o f t h e p o p u l a t i o n o f s t u d e n t s
who, f o l l o w i n g g r a d u a t i o n fro m t h e v a r i o u s Los A n g e le s
h ig h s c h o o l s d u r i n g t h e p a s t t e n y e a r s , e n r o l l e d a t one
o f t h e c i t y ' s t e r t i a r y i n s t i t u t i o n s and r e g i s t e r e d i n
u n i v e r s i t y p a r a l l e l c o u r s e work:.
The sam ple c o n s i s t e d o f 1035 i n d i v i d u a l s , 3^5 of*
whom w ere men and 470 o f whom w ere women. On an
i n s t i t u t i o n a l b a s i s , J u n i o r C o lle g e "A1 1 p r o v i d e d 395
o f t h e t o t a l w h i l e J u n i o r C o l le g e "B" p r o v i d e d 6 4 0 . The
g ro u p from J u n i o r C o lle g e "A” c o n t a i n e d 223 men and 172
women w h i l e th e one from J u n i o r C o l le g e "B" c o n t a i n e d
342 men and 298 women.
Members o f t h e sam ple d id t h e i r s e c o n d a r y s c h o o l
w ork i n t w e n t y - f o u r Los A n g e le s s e n i o r h ig h s c h o o l s .
S t u d e n t s who s e l e c t e d J u n i o r C o lle g e "A" came from
f i f t e e n o f t h e s e h ig h s c h o o l s , w h ile t h o s e who c h o se
J u n i o r C o lle g e "B" came from s i x t e e n . Seven h ig h s c h o o l s
c o n t r i b u t e d s t u d e n t s t o b o th J u n i o r c o l l e g e s . When
d i s t a n c e s b e tw e e n t h e t w e n t y - f o u r h ig h s c h o o l s and t h e
two J u n i o r c o l l e g e s w ere a n a l y z e d , I t a p p e a r e d t h a t m ost
s t u d e n t s 1 homes w ere s i t u a t e d w i t h i n a f i f t e e n m i l e
r a d i u s from t h e c o l l e g e t h e y s e l e c t e d . I n g e n e r a l , t h e
c l o s e r t h e h i g h s c h o o l t o e i t h e r o f t h e two J u n i o r
c o l l e g e s , t h e l a r g e r was t h e num ber o f i t s g r a d u a t e s who
e n r o l l e d a t t h a t c o l l e g e . T a b le I I I c o n t a i n s an a n a l y s i s
o f t h e sam p le by h i g h s c h o o l a t t e n d e d and by J u n i o r
c o l l e g e s e l e c t e d .
A s h o r t d e s c r i p t i v e s t u d y was made c o n c e r n i n g t h e
s o c i a l c l a s s c o m p o s i t i o n s o f t h e two J u n i o r c o l l e g e
s t u d e n t b o d i e s . I n f o r m a t i o n was g a t h e r e d fro m two
s o u r c e s : (a) s t u d e n t s ' J u n i o r c o l l e g e r e c o r d s a n d , (b)
c o n v e r s a t i o n s w i t h c e r t a i n c o u n s e l o r s and a d m i n i s t r a t o r s
a t t h e two i n s t i t u t i o n s . I t was g e n e r a l l y a g r e e d t h a t
s t u d e n t s a t t e n d i n g J u n i o r C o l le g e "A" w ere draw n
p r e d o m i n a n t l y from t h e lo w e r m id d le and t h e u p p e r lo w e r
c l a s s e s , w ith t h e f o r m e r b e i n g t h e m ore n u m e ro u s . A
s i m i l a r s i t u a t i o n was fo u n d a t J u n i o r C o l l e g e "Bm w ith
r e g a r d t o t h e c l a s s o r i g i n s o f i t s s t u d e n t s . H ow ever, a t
J u n i o r C o l le g e "B" i t was t h e c o n s e n s u s o f o p i n i o n t h a t
t h e e m p h a s is was r e v e r s e d , I . e . , t h e num ber o f s t u d e n t s
fro m u p p e r lo w e r c l a s s f a m i l i e s e x c e e d e d t h a t fro m lo w e r
m id d le c l a s s f a m i l i e s .
5 8
TABLE I I I . —An a n aly sis of the tvo samples by high school attended
and by Junior college selected
Number of students from each
high school who selected:
Number from
each high
High School Jun ior Jun io r school In
Code Numbers College "A" College "B" t o t a l sample
One 0
^5 ^5
Two 20 0 20
Three 1 65 66
Pour 0 6 6
Five 2
109 i l l
Six 0
17 17
Seven 0 28 28
Eight
5 k 5
50
Nine 31 51
82
Ten 1
15
16
Eleven 0
5 5
Twelve 1 87 88
Thirteen 0 60 60
Fourteen
5
60 65
F ifte e n l k 2 0 l k 2
Sixteen 0 2 2
Seventeen 20 0 20
Eighteen 1 0 1
Nineteen
ll+5
0
llt-5
Twenty 2 0 2
Twenty-one 18 0 18
Twenty-two 0 38 38
Twenty-three 1 0 1
Twenty-four _ _ 0
_ Z 7
TOTALS
395
6 k 0
1035
I . PERFORMANCE ON THE ACE
59
A f t e r b e i n g s e p a r a t e d b y J u n i o r c o l l e g e , d a t a f o r
e a c h p r e d i c t o r w e re a n a l y z e d t o e s t a b l i s h t h e m e d ia n
B c o r e , t h e f i r s t a n d t h i r d q u a r t i l e s c o r e s , t h e m ean
s c o r e , t h e s t a n d a r d d e v i a t i o n , a n d t h e s t a n d a r d e r r o r o f
t h e m ean. F i n d i n g s f o r t h e A m e ric a n C o u n c i l on
E d u c a t i o n P s y c h o l o g i c a l E x a m i n a t i o n f o r C o l l e g e F re s h m e n
(lOO) a p p e a r i n T a b le IV . I n t h i s r e g a r d , s e v e r a l
sum m ary com m ents seem a d v i s a b l e . F i r s t , m e d ia n a n d m ean
s c o r e s f o r J u n i o r c o l l e g e s t u d e n t s p u b l i s h e d i n t h e ACE
Norms B u l l e t i n , 1952 E d i t i o n ( 9 1 ) j w e re c o n s i s t e n t l y
i n f e r i o r t o t h o s e o b t a i n e d a t J u n i o r C o l l e g e "A ." S e c o n d ,
t h e s e same n a t i o n a l l y p u b l i s h e d m e d ia n a n d m ean s c o r e s
w e r e , b y c o n t r a s t , c o n s i s t e n t l y s u p e r i o r t o t h o s e
o b t a i n e d a t J u n i o r C o l l e g e "B. " T h i r d , a s s h o u l d
n o r m a l l y b e e x p e c t e d i n v ie w o f t h e n a t i o n a l s a m p l e 's
g r e a t e r h e t e r o g e n e i t y , s t a n d a r d d e v i a t i o n s d e r i v e d fro m
l o c a l d a t a w e r e , w i t h o ne e x c e p t i o n , a l l s m a l l e r a n d
s t a n d a r d e r r o r b o f t h e m ean, s e r v i n g a s m e a s u r e s o f
r e l i a b i l i t y , w e re c o n s i s t e n t l y l a r g e r t h a n t h o s e b a s e d
o n n a t i o n a l d a t a .
D i f f e r e n c e s b e tw e e n l o c a l l y o b t a i n e d m ean s c o r e s
a n d t h o s e f o r J u n i o r c o l l e g e s t u d e n t s w h ic h a p p e a r i n t h e
Norms B u l l e t i n w e re s t u d i e d f o r t h e i r s i g n i f i c a n c e . F o r
T A B L E IV.— Measures of central tendency and variability for the American Council on Education
Psychological Examination for College Freshmen, 1952 Edition
Standard
Median
F irs t
ftuartlle
Third
ftuartlle Mean
Standard
Deviation
Error of
the Mean
J. C. "A",
tlQ ll
score 38.1+4 31.06 45.12 37.68 10.65 .537
J. C. "B", "ft" score
35.97 27.50 44.40 35.68 12.25 .484
J. C. N. B. ,
llQ ll
score
37.33
28.50 45.00 36.36 12.08 .166
J. C. "A", "L" score 59.26
48.33 69.31 59.39 15.25
.768
J. C. "B", "L" score 54.74 1+4.07
66.59 56.73
16.20 .640
J. C. ». B. , ”L" score 58.00 45.50 69.50 57.69 17.45
.240
J. C. "A",
ilip n
score
97.91
82.17 111.66 95.70 22.90 1.154
J. C. "B",
n ipii
score 91.41 73.74 109.64
90.67
25.40 1.004
J. C. N. B. ,
itipii
score 95.00 77-00 112.50 94.06 26.48 .364
a See (91:11-20).
C T \
O
t h i s p u r p o s e , a n u l l h y p o t h e s i s was d r a f t e d and t e s t e d ,
t h e h y p o t h e s i s b e in g t h a t th e d i f f e r e n c e b e tw e e n an y one
o f t h e s i x l o c a l l y o b t a i n e d m eans and th e c o r r e s p o n d i n g
v a lu e p u b l i s h e d i n t h e Norms B u l l e t i n was a r e s u l t o f
s a m p lin g v a r i a t i o n and t h a t t h e a c t u a l mean d i f f e r e n c e
f o r a n i n f i n i t e num ber o f d i f f e r e n c e s i n m eans b a s e d on
sa m p le s draw n from a h y p o t h e t i c a l p o p u l a t i o n o f a l l
e n t e r i n g J u n i o r c o l l e g e fre s h m e n who had t a k e n th e t e s t ' s
1952 e d i t i o n was n e g l i g i b l e o r z e r o .
B ased on c r i t i c a l r a t i o s , t h r e e o f t h e d i f f e r e n c e s
were Judg ed t o be i n s i g n i f i c a n t b e c a u s e t h e i r r a t i o
v a lu e s were below 1 . 9 6 . I n t h e s e c a s e s t h e n u l l
h y p o t h e s i s was a c c e p t e d . On t h e o t h e r h a n d , th e
r e m a in in g t h r e e d i f f e r e n c e s a l l y i e l d e d q u o t i e n t s i n
e x c e s s o f I .9 6 an d , h e n c e , i n t h e s e c a s e s th e n u l l
h y p o t h e s i s was r e j e c t e d . D i f f e r e n c e s b e tw e e n two o f th e
p a i r i n g s w ere fo u n d t o be s i g n i f i c a n t a t t h e f i v e p e r
c e n t l e v e l o f c o n f i d e n c e : ACE "QM f o r J u n i o r C o lle g e "A"
v e r s u s Norms B u l l e t i n V (CR, 2 . 3 4 9 ) and ACE "L" f o r
J u n i o r C o lle g e "A" v e r s u s Norms B u l l e t i n "L" (CR, 2 . 1 1 2 ) .
I n b o t h c a s e s th e d i f f e r e n c e s f a v o r e d J u n i o r C o lle g e "A ."
The o t h e r s i g n i f i c a n t d i f f e r e n c e in v o lv e d t h e p a i r i n g o f
ACE "T" f o r J u n i o r C o lle g e "BM v e r s u s Norms B u l l e t i n "T M
(CR, 3 . 1 7 1 ) . T h is d i f f e r e n c e , o f c o u r s e , was s i g n i f i c a n t
62
a t th e one p e r c e n t l e v e l o f c o n f id e n c e and f a v o r e d th e
v a lu e a p p e a r i n g i n th e Worms B u l l e t i n .
D i f f e r e n c e s b e tw e e n mean s c o r e s f o r th e two J u n i o r
c o l l e g e s on e a c h o f th e t h r e e ACE s c a l e s were l i k e w i s e
s t u d i e d f o r t h e i r s i g n i f i c a n c e . I n e a c h c a s e th e
d i f f e r e n c e was s i g n i f i c a n t a t th e one p e r c e n t l e v e l o f
c o n f id e n c e and a l l d i f f e r e n c e s f a v o r e d J u n i o r C o lle g e "A."
C r i t i c a l r a t i o v a lu e s a r e a v a i l a b l e i n T a b le V.
I I . PERFORMANCE ON THE ITED
D ata on th e Iowa T e s t s o f E d u c a t i o n a l D evelopm ent
( 9 8 ) were a n a ly z e d i n a s i m i l a r m anner. The r e s u l t s a r e
p r e s e n t e d I n T a b le s VI and V I I . I n t h i s c a s e , i t was
n o t p o s s i b l e t o s t u d y t h e s i g n i f i c a n c e o f d i f f e r e n c e s
betw een l o c a l and n a t i o n a l mean s c o r e s ( a s was done w i t h
th e ACE) b e c a u s e th e l a t t e r were n o t a v a i l a b l e . The o n ly
m e a su re s o f c e n t r a l te n d e n c y made p u b l i c by th e
p u b l i s h e r s w ere m edian s c o r e s o b t a i n e d I n th e 1957
n a t i o n a l s t a n d a r d i z a t i o n program i n v o l v i n g 254 s c h o o l
sy ste m s ( 8 9 : 1 1 ) . F o r t h e p u rp o se o f c o m p a ris o n , n a t i o n a l
m edian s c o r e s on a l l n in e t e s t s and th e C om posite S co re
have b e e n I n c lu d e d i n T a b le s VI and V II . T hese s c o r e s
were b a s e d on th e p e rfo rm a n c e o f s t u d e n t s b e g in n i n g t h e i r
second s e m e s te r I n th e t w e l f t h g ra d e w hich , o f c o u r s e ,
r e p r e s e n t s th e same p o i n t e d u c a t i o n a l l y a t w hich members
63
TABLE Y .—C r i t i c a l r a t i o s "based on d iffe re n c e s betw een th e mean
sc o res f o r J u n io r C olleges "A” and "B" on th e ACE, th e ITED, and
h ig h sch o o l cum ulative grade p o in t averages f o r c o lle g e
p re p a ra to ry co u rses
ACE:
a 2.77
L 2.66
T
3.29
ITED:
1 it-.01
2 6.74
3 2.71
k 2.60
5
5.16
6 ^.87
7 U.85
8
5.51
9 ^.75
C 5-77
High School:
E n g lish -jo u rn a lism -sp e e c h 1.46
S o c ia l S tu d ies -2.38
S ciences -2.05
M athem atics 2.89
F oreign Languages 1.02
Cum ulative .03
aA p o s itiv e v alu e In d ic a te s th a t th e h ig h e r mean waB o b tain ed
by th e sample from J u n io r C ollege "A" w hile a n e g a tiv e v alue
in d ic a te s th a t th e h ig h e r mean was o b ta in e d by th e sample from
J u n io r C ollege "B".
T A B L E VI.—Measures of central tendency and variability on the IT E D for the sample from Junior
College " A "
Standard
National
Median®
Local
Median
F irs t
Quartile
Third
Quartile Mean
Standard
Deviation
Error of
the Mean
Test #1 17.6 21. 2 b 17.86 2 k . k 7
21.27 1*.70 .237
Test # 2 16.9 19.86 16.25 23.08 19.66
l+.7*+ .239
Test #3 17.2 18.3^ 15.3^
20.82 18.08 3.81*
.193
Test #1*
15 A 16.95
13.28 21.22 17.36 6.02
.303
Test #5 16.9 2 0 . j k 17.1+6
23.5^
20.1 * 8 l*.6o .232
Test #6
16.5 19.10 15.90 23.51 19.^3
5.1*2
.273
Test #7 15.9
18.68 15.06 22.30 18. 1 * 1 * 5.0** .251*
Test #8
17.1
20.1*3 17.56 23.62 20.56 i*.l6 .210
Test #9
17. U 21.37 17 M
2 k . S k 21.08 1**98
.251
Composite
Score
17.5 20.37 17.78 23.59 20.75
l*.68 .236
aSee (8 9:11).
P
T A B L E V II.—Measures of central tendency and variab ility on the I T E D for the sample f ran Junior
College " B "
Standard
National
Median6
Local
Median
F ir s t
Quartile
Third
Quartile Mean
Standard
Deviation
Error of
the Mean
Test #1
17 S
20.20 16.63 23.78 20.01 5.22 .206
Test #2
16.9
17.28 13.68
21.77 17.51 5.36 .212
Test #3 17.2
17.09
14.61*
20.27 17.40 4.04 .160
Test #4 15.4 l 6 . l l 11.72 20.31
16.34 6.28 .248
Teat h 16.9
19.26 15.44 22.41 18.90 5.04
.199
Test #6 16.5 17.59 13.98
21.83 17.73
5.48 .217
Test #7
15.9
16.78 13.60 20.30 16.86 5.18 .205
Test #8
17.1 18.99 16.27 22.62
18.99
4.86 .192
Test #9
17 A
19.66
15.97
23.49
19-54 5.18 .205
Composite
Score
17.5
19.16 15.64
22.35
18.98 4.98
.197
aSee (89:11).
O N
VJ 1
66
o f t h e l o c a l s a m p l e , w h i l e s t i l l i n h i g h s c h o o l , t o o k
t h e t e s t s . By d i r e c t v i s u a l i n s p e c t i o n , i t c a n b e s e e n
t h a t w i t h o n e e x c e p t i o n l o c a l m e d i a n s f o r b o t h j u n i o r
c o l l e g e g r o u p s w e re c o n s i s t e n t l y s u p e r i o r t o t h o s e
p r i n t e d b y t h e I T E D 's p u b l i s h e r s .
I n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d i n T a b l e V I I I p r o v i d e s
a n o t h e r s o u r c e o f c o m p a r i s o n . T h i s t a b l e p r e s e n t s t h e
m ean ITED s c o r e s f o r a l l b e g i n n i n g s e c o n d s e m e s t e r
t w e l f t h g r a d e s t u d e n t s i n t h e L o s A n g e l e s c i t y s c h o o l s i n
e a r l y 19 5 ^ a n d i n e a r l y 1 9 5 6 . W ith tw o e x c e p t i o n s , a l l
m ean s r e p o r t e d I n t h i s t a b l e w e re i n f e r i o r t o t h o s e
o b t a i n e d o n t h e g r o u p s a t J u n i o r C o l l e g e "A" a n d J u n i o r
C o l l e g e " B . " A s t u d y o f t h e s i g n i f i c a n c e o f t h e s e
d i f f e r e n c e s was n o t p o s s i b l e b e c a u s e c e r t a i n o t h e r
I n f o r m a t i o n r e q u i r e d i n t h e c o m p u t a t i o n o f c r i t i c a l
r a t i o s w as n o t a v a i l a b l e f o r t h e 1 9 5 ^ a n d t h e 1956
c i t y - w i d e g r o u p s .
F u r t h e r r e f e r e n c e t o T a b l e s VI a n d V I I r e v e a l s two
o t h e r g e n e r a l i z a t i o n s w h i c h seem w o r t h y o f com m ent.
F i r s t , s t a n d a r d d e v i a t i o n s f o r J u n i o r C o l l e g e "A" w e re
c o n s i s t e n t l y s m a l l e r t h a n w e re t h o s e f o r J u n i o r C o l l e g e
" B . ” T h i s f a c t I n d i c a t e d t h a t t h e s a m p le f ro m J u n i o r
C o l l e g e hA" w as m ore h o m o g e n e o u s t h a n t h e o n e f ro m J u n i o r
C o l l e g e "B ” I n so f a r a s t h i s m e a s u r e o f s e c o n d a r y
s c h o o l a c h i e v e m e n t w as c o n c e r n e d .
67
TABLE V I I I.—Mean scores on the ITED f o r a l l second semester tw elfth
grade students attending Los Angeles c ity senior high schools In the
spring terms of 195^ and 1956
ITED
195^
1956
Test ^1 18.9 19 A
Test #2 1 6 .9
16.9
Test #3 16.5
1 7 .8
Test 15.3 15.7
Test #5
17.9
1 8.6
Test 4(6 17.1 17.5
Test #7 1 6 .7 1 6 .8
Test #6 18.5 18.7
Test #9 18.9 18.5
Composite Score 18.2
18.7
68
S eco n d , i n s t i t u t i o n a l d i f f e r e n c e s i n mean s c o r e s
a l l f a v o r e d J u n io r C o lle g e "A." The s i g n i f i c a n c e o f
t h e s e d i f f e r e n c e s was B tu d ie d i n e a c h c a s e . R e s u l t i n g
c r i t i c a l r a t i o s a l l e x c e e d e d th e one p e r c e n t l e v e l o f
c o n f id e n c e . The e x a c t v a lu e s a r e a v a i l a b l e i n T a b le V.
T hus, a s m easured by t h i s a c h ie v e m e n t t e s t , s t u d e n t s in
th e Bample who c h o se t o e n r o l l a t J u n io r C o lle g e ,fA" had
a t t a i n e d a more th o r o u g h m a s te r y o f h ig h s c h o o l s u b j e c t
m a tte r and i n t h i s r e g a r d a p p ea red t o be b e t t e r p rep a re d
f o r c o l l e g e s t u d i e s .
I I I . PERFORMANCE IN HIGH SCHOOL
The a n a l y s i s o f p r e d i c t i v e d a ta was c o n c lu d e d w ith
a s tu d y o f h ig h s c h o o l g ra d e p o in t a v e r a g e s . In b r i e f
r e v ie w , a s d a ta w ere g a t h e r e d , s i x a v e r a g e s w ere com puted
f o r e a c h sam ple member. They w ere: A v er a g es i n f i v e
s u b j e c t m a tte r a r e a s ( E n g lis h - J o u r n a lis m - s p e e c h , s o c i a l
s t u d i e s , s c i e n c e , m a th e m a tic s , and f o r e i g n la n g u a g e s ) and
a c u m u la tiv e a v e r a g e b a se d on marks ea r n e d In a l l f i v e
s u b j e c t a r e a s . In com p u tin g a v e r a g e s , l e t t e r marks w ere
c o n v e r te d I n t o g ra d e p o in t e q u i v a l e n t s a s f o l l o w s : Each
u n i t o f A, f o u r g ra d e p o i n t s ; e a c h u n i t o f B, t h r e e grad e
p o i n t s ; e a c h u n i t o f C, two g ra d e p o i n t s ; e a c h u n i t o f D,
one g ra d e p o in t ; and e a c h u n i t o f F, z e r o .
69
W ith t h i s in f o r m a t io n , m e d ia n s, f i r s t and t h ir d
q u a r t i l e s , m eans, sta n d a r d d e v i a t i o n s , and sta n d a r d
e r r o r s o f th e means w ere com puted f o r e a c h o f th e s i x
c a t e g o r i e s o f a v e r a g e s . Ab was th e c a s e when a n a ly z in g
ACE and ITED m a t e r i a l , d a ta f o r th e two J u n io r c o l l e g e
g ro u p s w ere t r e a t e d s e p a r a t e l y . R e s u lt s a p p e a r i n
T a b le IX and T ab le X.
Two g e n e r a l i z a t i o n s b a se d on m a t e r ia l i n t h e s e
t a b l e s Beem w o rth y o f n o t e . F i r s t , w it h one e x c e p t i o n ,
sta n d a r d d e v i a t i o n s f o r J u n io r C o lle g e M B" w ere l a r g e r
th a n w ere t h o s e f o r th e o t h e r J u n io r c o l l e g e . A ll
d i f f e r e n c e s , h o w ev er, w ere s m a ll e x c e p t f o r th e one
I n v o lv in g m a th e m a tic s grad e p o in t a v e r a g e s . I n v ie w o f
th e f a c t t h a t th e group from J u n io r C o lle g e "B" c o n ta in e d
245 more members th a n d id th e one from J u n io r C o lle g e " A ,”
th e p r e s e n c e o f s l i g h t l y g r e a t e r v a r i a b i l i t y In h ig h
s c h o o l gra d e p o in t a v e r a g e s f o r th e J u n io r C o lle g e M B"
p o r t io n o f th e sam ple was c o n s id e r e d to be u n im p o r ta n t.
S eco n d , d i f f e r e n c e s b e tw e e n th e two i n s t i t u t i o n s '
mean gra d e p o in t a v e r a g e s w ere l i k e w i s e B m all, e s p e c i a l l y
i n th e c a s e o f th e c u m u la tiv e a v e r a g e s . A f t e r c r i t i c a l
r a t i o s f o r th e d i f f e r e n c e s i n means w ere com puted, I t was
foun d t h a t th r e e o f th e d i f f e r e n c e s were i n s i g n i f i c a n t ,
two w ere s i g n i f i c a n t a t th e f i v e p e r c e n t l e v e l o f
c o n f id e n c e , and one was s i g n i f i c a n t a t th e one p e r c e n t
T A B L E IX.—Measures of central tendency and variability for grade point averages based on marks received
in six areas of college preparatory subject matter: Sample from Junior College " A "
Standard
F ir s t Third Standard Error of
Median Qnartile Guartile Mean Deviation the Mean
English-j oumalism- speech 2 . 1 * 8 1.96 2.91 2.1+5 .61+ .032
Social Studies
2.53 1.98
2.93
2.50
.65 .033
Sciences 2.29
1.88
2.67
2.28
.59
.030
Mathematics 2.28
1.85 2.76 2.28
.65 .033
Foreign languages 2 . 2 1+ 1.81
2.77 2.25 .76 .038
Cumulative
2.1+3 2.07 2.78 2.1 + 1 +
.51
.026
T A B L E X.—Measures of central tendency and v a ria b ility for grade point averages based on narks received
in six areas of college preparatory subject matter: Sample from Junior College " B "
Median
F i r s t
Qtuartile
Biird
Quartile Mean
Standard
Deviation
Standard
Error of
the Mean
English-journalism-speech 2.U6 2.01 2.91
2.51
. 6 k
.025
Social Studies 2 .62 2.10 3.01 2 .6 0 .66 .026
Sciences
2.35 1.87 2.83 2.36
.63 .025
Mathematics 2.16 1.87 2.62
2.15 .75
.030
Foreign languages 2.22 1.72
2.77
2.20
.79 .031
Cumulative 2 M 2.06 2.81
2 . k 5 .5^
.021
72
l e v e l . B oth o f th e d i f f e r e n c e s s i g n i f i c a n t a t th e f i v e
p er c e n t l e v e l fa v o r e d J u n io r C o lle g e M B , " w h ile th e
lo n e d i f f e r e n c e s i g n i f i c a n t a t th e one p e r c e n t l e v e l
fa v o r e d J u n io r C o lle g e "A."
IV. SUM M ARY
The p u rp ose o f t h i s c h a p te r was t o p r e s e n t c e r t a i n
d e s c r i p t i v e m a t e r ia l c o n c e r n in g th e sa m p le. Item s
c o n s id e r e d w ere: The s a m p le 's t o t a l s i z e (N, 1 0 3 5)> i t s
c o m p o s itio n by s e x (N, 565 men and 470 women), th e number
o f i t s members who a tte n d e d J u n io r C o lle g e "A" (N, 395)
and J u n io r C o lle g e "B" (N, 6 4 0 ) , th e s o c i a l c l a s s
b ackground s o f i t s members (m o s t ly upper lo w er and lo w e r
m id d le ), and th e g e o g r a p h ic a l d i s t r i b u t i o n s o f i t s members
around th e two J u n io r c o l l e g e s (m ost l i v e d w it h in a
f i f t e e n m ile r a d iu s o f th e c o l l e g e a t t e n d e d ) .
M edians, f i r s t and t h ir d q u a r t i l e s , m eans, sta n d a r d
d e v i a t i o n s , and sta n d a rd e r r o r s o f th e means were a l s o
p r e s e n te d f o r ea c h p r e d ic t o r u sed In th e s tu d y . T hese
p r e d ic t o r s w ere: The Q u a n t it a t iv e , L i n g u i s t i c , and T o ta l
s c o r e s o f th e ACE; th e n in e s e p a r a te t e s t s c o r e s and th e
C om posite S co re on th e ITED; and s i x grad e p o in t a v e r a g e s
b ased on h ig h s c h o o l c o u r s e m arks. Data f o r ea c h o f th e
two J u n io r c o l l e g e grou p s w it h in th e t o t a l sam ple were
t r e a t e d s e p a r a t e ly .
73
S e v e r a l g e n e r a l i z a t i o n s w e re n o t e d r e g a r d i n g t h e s e
s t a t i s t i c s . F i r s t , w hen ACE a n d ITED m ean s c o r e s f o r t h e
tw o J u n i o r c o l l e g e g r o u p s w e re c o m p a r e d , a l l d i f f e r e n c e s
w e re f o u n d t o h e s i g n i f i c a n t a n d a l l f a v o r e d J u n i o r
C o l l e g e " A ." S e c o n d , a s t u d y o f s t a n d a r d d e v i a t i o n s f o r
t h e same two t e s t s i n d i c a t e d t h a t t h e g r o u p f ro m J u n i o r
C o l l e g e "A" w as s l i g h t l y m ore h o m o g en e o u s t h a n was t h e
o n e f ro m J u n i o r C o l l e g e " B . " T h i r d , t h e r e w as v i r t u a l l y
n o d i f f e r e n c e b e t w e e n t h e tw o g r o u p s 1 m ean c u m u l a t i v e
g r a d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s f o r c o l l e g e p r e p a r a t o r y c o u r s e s
t a k e n i n h i g h s c h o o l ; h o w e v e r , t h e r e w e re t h r e e
s i g n i f i c a n t d i f f e r e n c e s b e tw e e n m ean g r a d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s
i n s p e c i f i c s u b j e c t m a t t e r a r e a s .
CHAPTER V
PROCEDURE
A g e n e r a l o u t l i n e o f t h e s t u d y was p r e s e n t e d I n
C h a p t e r I w i t h a t t e n t i o n f o c u s e d p r i m a r i l y upo n t h e
p r o b le m a n d s e c o n d a r i l y up o n i t s s c o p e , p u r p o s e ,
i m p o r t a n c e an d l i m i t a t i o n s . The o b j e c t o f t h i s c h a p t e r
i s t o e x p a n d u p o n t h e i n t r o d u c t o r y m a t e r i a l o f C h a p t e r I
w i t h a d e t a i l e d d e s c r i p t i o n o f t h e p r o c e d u r e f o l l o w e d i n
c o l l e c t i n g and p r o c e s s i n g t h e d a t a . C r i t e r i o n d a t a w ere
J u n i o r c o l l e g e m a rk s i n u n i v e r s i t y p a r a l l e l c o u r s e s , an d
p r e d i c t i v e d a t a w e r e : S c o r e s on t h e ACE, 1952 E d i t i o n ;
s c o r e s on t h e ITED; a n d h i g h s c h o o l m a rk s i n c o l l e g e
p r e p a r a t o r y s u b j e c t s .
I . DATA GATHERING
J u n i o r C o l l e g e " a "
The c o l l e c t i o n o f d a t a was b e g u n a t J u n i o r C o l l e g e
"A" w i t h t h e a s s e m b ly o f a r o s t e r c o n t a i n i n g t h e nam es o f
a l l s t u d e n t s who h a d e n r o l l e d t h e r e a s b e g i n n i n g f r e s h m e n
i n e i t h e r t h e sum m er s e s s i o n o r t h e f a l l s e m e s t e r o f 1954
and who h a d come fro m L os A n g e le s c i t y h i g h s c h o o l s . T h i s
t a s k r e q u i r e d t h e s c a n n i n g o f c u m u l a t i v e r e c o r d c a r d s f o r
a l l s t u d e n t s who h a d a t t e n d e d t h e c o l l e g e s i n c e I t s
7 5
i n a u g u r a t i o n i n S e p t e m b e r , 1 9 ^ 9 . A s i d e f r o m g r a d e a
r e c e i v e d , e a c h c a r d c o n t a i n e d t h e s t u d e n t ' 3 d a t e o f
i n i t i a l r e g i s t r a t i o n a n d t h e nam e o f h i s h i g h s c h o o l . By
v o l u m e , t h e s e c a r d s c o n s u m e d t e n s o l i d l y p a c k e d d r a w e r s
i n t h r e e f i l i n g c a b i n e t s . A f t e r a l l o f t h e c a r d s h a d
b e e n e x a m i n e d , 3 3 5 n a m e s w e r e f o u n d t o b e t e n t a t i v e l y
u s e f u l . I n e a c h c a s e , t h e s t u d e n t h a d a t t e n d e d a L o s
A n g e l e s h i g h s c h o o l a n d h a d b e g u n h i s t e r t i a r y s t u d i e s
a t J u n i o r C o l l e g e "A" i n t h e sum m er o r f a l l o f 1 9 5 ^ .
W o r k in g f r o m t h e a f o r e m e n t i o n e d r o s t e r o f 3 3 5
t e n t a t i v e l y u s e f u l n a m e s , t h e p r o c e s s o f r e f i n e m e n t w as
b e g u n . As t h e f i r s t s t e p , s t u d e n t p e r s o n n e l f o l d e r s
w e r e s e a r c h e d f o r ACE r a w s c o r e s . No s c o r e s w e r e f o u n d
i n t w e n t y - t w o f o l d e r s a n d , a s a c o n s e q u e n c e , t h e s e
t w e n t y - t w o n a m e s w e r e d e l e t e d f r o m t h e r o s t e r . T h e
r e m a i n i n g 3 1 3 n a m e s w e r e t h e n c h e c k e d a g a i n s t l i s t s o f
ITED s c o r e s on f i l e w i t h t h e E v a l u a t i o n a n d R e s e a r c h
S e c t i o n i n t h e A d m i n i s t r a t i v e O f f i c e s o f t h e L o s A n g e l e s
C i t y B o a r d o f E d u c a t i o n . S t u d e n t s ' s c o r e s h a d b e e n
a s s e m b l e d on a p p r o x i m a t e l y t h i r t y s e p a r a t e l i s t s , o n e f o r
e a c h h i g h s c h o o l i n t h e d i s t r i c t . Nam es on e a c h l i s t w e r e
a r r a n g e d b y y e a r l y c l a s s e s , b e g i n n i n g w i t h t h e f i r s t
s e m e s t e r t e n t h g r a d e c l a s s a n d t e r m i n a t i n g w i t h t h e
s e c o n d s e m e s t e r t w e l f t h g r a d e c l a s s . T w e n t y - o n e s t u d e n t s
h a d e i t h e r n o t t a k e n t h e ITED o r h a d I n v a l i d a t e d
76
i n d i v i d u a l t e s t s . T h e i r names w ere t h e n rem oved from
t h e r o s t e r , l e a v i n g 292 f o r w hich c o m p le te ACE and ITED
s c o r e s w ere a v a i l a b l e .
As t h e n e x t s t e p , t r a n s c r i p t s o f t h e 292 s t u d e n t s '
h ig h s c h o o l r e c o r d s w ere e x a m in e d , f i r s t , t o d e te r m i n e
w h e t h e r o r n o t e ac h h ad g r a d u a t e d from h ig h s c h o o l i n t h e
s p r i n g o f 1 9 5^J s e c o n d , t o d e te r m i n e i f e a c h had
c o m p le te d f o u r o r more s e m e s t e r s i n a Los A n g e le s s e n i o r
h ig h s c h o o l ; t h i r d , t o d e te r m i n e i f e a c h had been
e n r o l l e d w ith t w e l f t h g r a d e s t a n d i n g i n a Los A n g e le s
s e n i o r h ig h s c h o o l d u r i n g t h e 1 9 5 3 -5 ^ a ca d em ic y e a r ; and
f o u r t h , i f th e p r e c e d i n g c o n d i t i o n s had b een m et, to
c o l l e c t eac h s t u d e n t ' s m arks i n c o l l e g e p r e p a r a t o r y
c o u r s e s . The t r a n s c r i p t s w ere on f i l e a t J u n i o r C o lle g e
"A" in e a c h s t u d e n t ' s p e r s o n n e l f o l d e r . No names had t o
b e d ro p p e d a s a r e s u l t o f t h i s c h e c k on h ig h s c h o o l
r e c o r d s .
F i n a l l y , e a c h s t u d e n t ' s j u n i o r c o l l e g e C u m u la tiv e
R ecord C ard was r e v ie w e d t o e s t a b l i s h w h e t h e r he had
c o m p le te d a t l e a s t two c o u r s e s t o t a l i n g a minimum o f f o u r
u n i t s i n a t l e a s t two o f t h e s u b j e c t m a t t e r a r e a s i n t o
w hich j u n i o r c o l l e g e c o u r s e s h ad been d i v i d e d . The
s u r v e y o f c u m u l a t i v e r e c o r d c a r d s r e s u l t e d i n t h e d e l e t i o n
o f 101 nam es, t h u s l e a v i n g a f i n a l t o t a l o f 191 u s e f u l
names on t h e r o s t e r .
77
By c o m p a r i s o n , t h e e f f o r t e x p e n d e d i n l o c a t i n g t h e
nam es o f t h o s e s t u d e n t s who h a d b e g u n t h e i r t e r t i a r y
s t u d i e s a t J u n i o r C o l l e g e "A" i n t h e summer o r f a l l o f
1956 was nob n e a r l y 30 g r e a t . In t h i s c a s e , an A v e ra g e
D a i l y A t t e n d a n c e C a rd h a d b e e n c o m p l e t e d b y e a c h s t u d e n t
a s h e r e g i s t e r e d i n t h e f a l l o f 1 9 5 6 . T h e s e c a r d s w e re
l a t e r u s e d a s a b a s i s f o r m a k in g a t t e n d a n c e r e p o r t s t o
t h e C a l i f o r n i a S t a t e D e p a r tm e n t o f E d u c a t i o n .
F o r t u n a t e l y , t h e y h a d b e e n s t o r e d t o g e t h e r and h a d n o t
y e t b e e n d i s t r i b u t e d i n t h e s t u d e n t s ' p e r s o n n e l f o l d e r s .
I n c l u d e d on t h e c a r d s w e re s p a c e s f o r h i g h s c h o o l s
a t t e n d e d and d a t e s o f a r r i v a l a t t h e c o l l e g e . The nam es
o f 429 e n t e r i n g f r e s h m e n w e re s e c u r e d , a l l o f whom h a d
come fro m a Los A n g e le s s e n i o r h i g h s c h o o l and a l l o f
whom h a d b e g u n t h e i r s t u d i e s a t J u n i o r C o l l e g e "A" i n
t h e summer o r f a l l o f 1 9 5 6 .
W ith t h i s e x c e p t i o n , t h e p r o c e d u r e u s e d i n
g a t h e r i n g and r e f i n i n g d a t a f o r t h e 1956 g r o u p a t J u n i o r
C o l l e g e "A1 1 was i d e n t i c a l w i t h t h a t e m p lo y e d f o r t h e 195^-
g r o u p . S t u d e n t p e r s o n n e l f o l d e r s y i e l d e d t w e n t y - n i n e
nam es w i t h o u t ACE s c o r e s an d a s u b s e q u e n t c h e c k w i t h
ITED l i s t s s u p p l i e d a n o t h e r s i x t y - e i g h t nam es w h ic h c o u l d
n o t b e u s e d . In t h e l a t t e r c a s e , f o r t y - f i v e o f t h e
s i x t y - e i g h t i n v o l v e d g r a d u a t e s o f San F e r n a n d o H igh
S c h o o l , t h e l o n e L os A n g e le s h i g h s c h o o l w h ic h d i d n o t
78
p a r t i c i p a t e i n t h e 1956 ITED t e s t i n g p ro g ra m . T h u s, 332
names w ere u n c o v e r e d f o r w h ic h c o m p le te ACE a n d ITED
s c o r e s w ere a v a i l a b l e . T h is t o t a l was l a t e r r e d u c e d t o
204 a f t e r e a c h s t u d e n t ' s h i g h s c h o o l t r a n s c r i p t and
J u n i o r c o l l e g e C u m u la tiv e R e c o rd C ard h a d b e e n r e v ie w e d .
J u n i o r C o lle g e 1 1 B"
The p r o c e d u r e f o r a s s e m b l i n g d a t a a t J u n i o r C o lle g e
"B" was s l i g h t l y d i f f e r e n t . H e re , ACE s c o r e s f o r e a c h
e n t e r i n g c l a s s h a d b e e n r e c o r d e d a l p h a b e t i c a l l y i n
s e p a r a t e ra a n ila f o l d e r s . The 1954 f o l d e r c o n t a i n e d 1555
names and t h e 1956 f o l d e r h a d 1602 nam es. A l l names
t h e r e i n w ere c h e c k e d w i t h t h o s e a p p e a r i n g on th e
a p p r o p r i a t e ITED l i s t s i n t h e E v a l u a t i o n and R e s e a r c h
S e c t i o n ' s o f f i c e . The p u r p o s e i n d o in g t h i s was two f o l d .
F i r s t , i t s e r v e d t o i d e n t i f y s t u d e n t s who h ad come to
J u n i o r C o lle g e "BH d i r e c t l y fro m Los A n g e le s c i t y h i g h
s c h o o l s . O th e r s who had e m a n a te d from h i g h s c h o o l s
o u t s i d e t h e Los A n g e le s C i t y S c h o o ls D i s t r i c t , o r who had
e x p e r i e n c e d a n i n t e r r u p t i o n o f g r e a t e r d u r a t i o n t h a n
summer v a c a t i o n b e tw e e n t h e i r s e n i o r y e a r s i n h i g h s c h o o l
an d i n i t i a l e n r o l l m e n t a t J u n i o r C o lle g e " B , " o r who h a d
n o t t a k e n t h e ITED w ere e x c l u d e d . S e c o n d , I t p r o v i d e d
s i m u l t a n e o u s o p p o r t u n i t y t o am ass ITED s c o r e s w h ic h w ere
p o t e n t i a l l y u s e f u l . At t h i s p o i n t , 498 p o t e n t i a l l y u s e f u l
79
names re m a in e d i n t h e 1954 f o l d e r and 439 i n t h e 1956.
Among t h o s e i n t h e 195^ f o l d e r , s c o r e s f o r f i f t e e n w ere
i n c o m p l e t e . In t h e s e c a s e s , one o r more o f t h e n i n e
t e s t s i n t h e ITED h a d b e e n I n v a l i d a t e d . L i k e w i s e ,
s c o r e s f o r t w e n ty - o n e names In t h e 1956 f o l d e r w ere
I n c o m p l e t e . T hese names w ere t h e n d e l e t e d , t h u s l e a v i n g
483 and 4 l 8 names i n t h e two f o l d e r s r e s p e c t i v e l y .
As t h e n e x t s t e p , p e r s o n n e l f o l d e r s f o r a l l o f t h e
r e m a in i n g 901 names w ere e xam ined i n s e a r c h o f t r a n s c r i p t s
o f h ig h s c h o o l r e c o r d s . In 3i x t y - e i g h t f o l d e r s t h e
t r a n s c r i p t s w ere e i t h e r m i s s i n g o r w ere i n c o m p l e t e and
had t o be s e c u r e d t h r o u g h t h e C hairm an o f t h e Los
A n g e le s C i t y S c h o o l s ' C om m ittee on R e s e a r c h S t u d i e s .
Then e a c h s t u d e n t ' s J u n i o r c o l l e g e C u m u la tiv e
R e co rd C ard was re v ie w e d t o d e t e r m i n e w h e t h e r he had
c o m p le te d a t l e a s t two c o u r s e s t o t a l i n g a minimum o f f o u r
u n i t s In e a c h o f two o r m ore o f t h e n i n e s u b j e c t m a t t e r
a r e a s i n t o w hich J u n i o r c o l l e g e g r a d e s had b e en d iv id e d ." ^
When t h i s p r o c e s s was c o m p le te d , b o th g ro u p s w ere
n o t i c e a b l y s m a l l e r . The 1954 g ro u p had d e c r e a s e d from
S t u d e n t s ' p e r s o n n e l f o l d e r s and C u m u la tiv e R eco rd
C a rd s w ere f i l e d by co de n u m b e rs . T h u s, none o f t h e
f o l d e r s o r c a r d s was d i r e c t l y a c c e s s i b l e . As an
I n t e r m e d i a r y s t e p , a l l 901 s t u d e n t s ' s i x d i g i t code
num bers had t o be c o p ie d from c o d e - c a r d f i l e s b e f o r e t h e i r
r e c o r d s c o u ld be l o c a t e d .
80
483 to 333 and th e 1956 group had d e c r e a se d from 4 l8 to
307. These d e l e t i o n s r e p r e s e n te d a l o s s o f 255 names,
le a v in g a f i n a l t o t a l o f 640 f o r J u n io r C o lle g e " B ."
I I . GENERAL SCHOLASTIC PREDICTION
P r e d i c t o r s u s e d I n t h i s p o r t i o n o f t h e s t u d y
i n c l u d e d t h e ACE T o t a l S c o r e , t h e ITED C o m p o s ite S c o r e ,
a n d t h e c u m u l a t i v e g r a d e p o i n t a v e r a g e f o r c o l l e g e
p r e p a r a t o r y c o u r s e w ork c o m p l e t e d I n h i g h s c h o o l . By
d e f i n i t i o n , c o l l e g e p r e p a r a t o r y w ork was c o n f i n e d t o
E n g l i s h - j o u r n a l i s m - s p e e c h , f o r e i g n l a n g u a g e , m a t h e m a t i c s ,
s c i e n c e , an d s o c i a l s t u d i e s c o u r s e s .
C u m u la tiv e g r a d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s b a s e d o n a l l J u n i o r
c o l l e g e m a rk s r e c e i v e d I n n i n e a r e a s o f u n i v e r s i t y
p a r a l l e l c o u r s e w o rk s u p p l i e d t h e c r i t e r i o n . T h e s e a r e a s
w e r e : B i o l o g i c a l s c i e n c e s , b u s i n e s s , c o m m u n ic a tiv e a r t s ,
f i n e a r t s , f o r e i g n l a n g u a g e s , m a t h e m a t i c s , p h y s i c a l
s c i e n c e s , s e c r e t a r i a l s c i e n c e , an d s o c i a l s t u d i e s . T h e s e
a r e a s w e re s e l e c t e d o n f o u r b a s e s : F i r s t , t h e
c o n f i r m a t i o n o f t r a n s f e r c r e d i t f o r I n d i v i d u a l c o u r s e s b y
a d m i s s i o n s o f f i c e r s a t n e a r b y f o u r - y e a r i n s t i t u t i o n s ;
s e c o n d , t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f c o u r s e c r e d i t s o n
p a r t i c i p a t i n g s t u d e n t s ’ c u m u l a t i v e r e c o r d c a r d s ; t h i r d ,
t h e n a t u r e o f c u r r i c u l a r o r g a n i z a t i o n s a t t h e two J u n i o r
81
colleges as presented In their respective catalogs; and,
fourth, the statements by counseling personnel at both
Institutions concerning the identity and structure of
university parallel curricula on their particular
campusses. Department lables applied to courses In each
of the nine areas are listed in Table XI.
The computational procedure used in the study of
general scholastic prediction had three parts. First,
Pearson correlations were computed between each separate
predictor and the criterion. Second, a coefficient of
multiple correlation was computed between the best
combination of all three predictors and the criterion.
Third, a multiple regression equation was prepared
utilizing all three predictors. The first step served
the dual purpose of determining how well single
predictors could forecast the criterion and of securing
coefficients which were prerequisite to computing beta
weights and coefficients of multiple correlation. The
second step established the three predictors' maximum
predictive value in their best combination and,
simultaneously, determined how much improvement in
predictive efficiency this combination had over the
single predictors. The third step represented an attempt
to assess the relative importance of each independent
variable in the multiple relationship and to provide a
82
TABLE X I.—The su b ject m atter con ten t fo r each o f the nine areas o f
u n iv e r s ity p a r a lle l course work
Junior C ollege "A" Junior C ollege "B"
I . B io lo g ic a l S cien ces
Anatomy
B iology
Botany
M icrobiology
Zoology
M icrobiology
P aleon tology
Physiology
Zoology
I . B io lo g ic a l S cien ces
Agronomy
Anatomy
B iology
Botany
Entomology
I I . B u sin ess I I .
Accounting
Finance
General b u sin ess
Law
Management
M e rchandi s i ng
B usiness
A ccounting
A d v ertisin g
Banking and fin a n ce
B usiness ad m in istra tio n
B usiness law
General b u sin ess
Management
Marketing
M e rchandi s 1ng
Real e s ta te and Insurance
I I I . Communicative Arts
E nglish
Journalism
Speech
IV. Fine Arts
A rch itectu re
Art
Music
V. Foreign Languages
French
German
Latin
Spanish
I I I . Communicative A rts
E n glish
Journalism
Speech
IV. Fine A rts
A rch itectu re
Art
Music
V. Foreign Languages
Chinese
French
German
Hebrew
I ta lia n
Latin
Russian
Spanish
83
T A B L E XI.--Continued
Junior C ollege "A " Junior C ollege "B"
VI. Mathematics VI. Mathematics
Mathematics Mathematics
S t a t i s t i c s S t a t i s t i c s
V II. P h y sic a l S cien ces V II. P h y sica l S cien ces
Astronomy Astronomy
Chemistry Chemistry
E ngineering E ngineering
Geology G eology
P h ysics G eophysics
M eteorology
M inerology
P h ysics
V III. S e c r e ta r ia l S cien ce V III. S e c r e ta r ia l Science
B usiness education B u sin ess education
O ffic e management O ffic e management
S e c r e ta r ia l scie n c e S e c r e ta r ia l scie n c e
IX. S o c ia l S tu d ies IX. S o c ia l S tu d ies
Anthropology Anthropology
Economics Economics
Geography Geography
H istory H istory
Home Economics8 Home Economics
Marriage and Family L ife Marriage and Fam ily L ife
Philosophy P reparation fo r Marriage
P o l i t i c a l S cience P ersonal and S o c ia l
Psychology Adjustment
S o cio lo g y Philosophy
P o l i t i c a l S cience
Psychology
S o cio lo g y
O
Only the course or courses in clu d ed h elo v were used from t h is
su b ject m atter ca teg o ry .
84
b a s i s f o r m a k in g p r e d i c t i o n s r e g a r d i n g i n d i v i d u a l s t u d e n t s .
S t u d e n t s fro m t h e tw o J u n i o r c o l l e g e s w e re t r e a t e d a s
s e p a r a t e u n i t s , a n d a l l c o e f f i c i e n t s ' s t a n d a r d e r r o r s
w e re c o m p u te d a s a b a s i s f o r J u d g i n g t h e i r r e s p e c t i v e
r e l i a b i l i t i e s .
I I I . DIFFERENTIAL SCHOLASTIC PREDICTION
W h erea s t h e c o n t e n t o f t h e p r e d i c t o r s u s e d I n
g e n e r a l s c h o l a s t i c p r e d i c t i o n was r e l a t i v e l y b r o a d I n
s c o p e , t h e c o n t e n t o f t h o s e u s e d i n d i f f e r e n t i a l
s c h o l a s t i c p r e d i c t i o n was much n a r r o w e r . The p r e d i c t o r s
w e r e : The A CE's Q an d L s c o r e s , t h e IT E D ' s n i n e I n d i
v i d u a l t e s t s c o r e s , and g r a d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s e a r n e d In
e a c h o f f i v e s e c o n d a r y - s c h o o l s u b j e c t m a t t e r a r e a s
( E n g l i s h - J o u r n a l i s m - s p e e c h , f o r e i g n l a n g u a g e s ,
m a t h e m a t i c s , s c i e n c e s , an d s o c i a l s t u d i e s ) .
The c r i t e r i a w e re t w e n t y - t w o d i f f e r e n c e s b e tw e e n
g r a d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s . The f i r s t s t e p i n d e v e l o p i n g t h i s
t y p e o f c r i t e r i o n was t o c l a s s i f y u n i v e r s i t y p a r a l l e l
c o u r s e s i n s u b j e c t m a t t e r a r e a s . N in e a r e a s w e re f i n a l l y
s e l e c t e d I n a m a n n e r d e s c r i b e d I n S e c t i o n I I o f t h i 3
c h a p t e r . T i t l e s o f t h e n i n e a r e a s and t h e s u b j e c t s
i n c l u d e d I n e a c h a r e a v a i l a b l e I n T a b l e X I .
The s e c o n d s t e p was t o a c q u i r e t h e n e c e s s a r y d a t a
fro m t h e h i g h s c h o o l a n d J u n i o r c o l l e g e r e c o r d s o f t h e
85
s t u d e n t s who h a d m et t h e d e l i m i t a t i o n s s p e c i f i e d i n
C h a p te r I , S e c t i o n I I .
The t h i r d s t e p was t o com pute e a c h s t u d e n t ' s g r a d e
p o i n t a v e r a g e s i n t h o s e s u b j e c t m a t t e r a r e a s w h ere a t
l e a s t two c o u r s e s w o rth a minimum o f f o u r u n i t s h a d b e en
c o m p l e t e d .
The f o u r t h s t e p was t o c a l c u l a t e e a c h s t u d e n t ' s
c r i t e r i o n i n f o r m a t i o n , i . e . , t h e d i f f e r e n c e s b e tw e e n
g r a d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s f o r t h o s e s u b j e c t m a t t e r a r e a s i n
w hich he q u a l i f i e d . The a r e a s w ere p a i r e d i n a l l
p o s s i b l e c o m b i n a t i o n s and d i f f e r e n c e s w ere o b t a i n e d by
s u b t r a c t i n g a l g e b r a i c a l l y t h e a v e r a g e f o r t h e se c o n d
v a r i a b l e i n e a c h p a i r i n g fro m t h e a v e r a g e f o r t h e f i r s t
v a r i a b l e . F o r e x a m p le , i n t h e S o c i a l S t u d i e s -
C om m u nicative A r t s p a i r i n g , a s t u d e n t ' s g r a d e p o i n t
a v e r a g e f o r c o u r s e s i n t h e C om m unicative A r t s was
s u b t r a c t e d fro m h i s g r a d e p o i n t a v e r a g e f o r c o u r s e s i n
t h e S o c i a l S t u d i e s . I f t h e S o c i a l S t u d i e s a v e r a g e w ere
l a r g e r th a n t h e C o m m u n icativ e A r t s a v e r a g e , t h e r e m a in d e r
was c o n s i d e r e d t o b e p o s i t i v e . By c o n t r a s t , i f t h e
C om m u n icativ e A r t s a v e r a g e w ere l a r g e r th a n t h e S o c i a l
S t u d i e s a v e r a g e , t h e r e m a in d e r was c o n s i d e r e d t o be
n e g a t i v e .
The f i f t h s t e p was t o make two s o r t i n g s , one o f t h e
1 6 5 4 d i f f e r e n c e s o b t a i n e d a t J u n i o r C o l l e g e "A" and t h e
86
o t h e r o f t h e 2427 d i f f e r e n c e s o b t a i n e d a t J u n i o r C o l l e g e
" B . " I n b o t h s o r t i n g s , d i f f e r e n c e s b a s e d o n e a c h o f t h e
t h i r t y - s i x s u b j e c t m a t t e r p a i r i n g s w e re c o n s o l i d a t e d ,
a f t e r w h ic h a c o u n t was made o f t h e n u m b er o f d i f f e r e n c e s
i n e a c h p a i r i n g . S u m m a rie s o f t h e r e s u l t s , t r e a t e d
s e p a r a t e l y b y j u n i o r c o l l e g e , a p p e a r i n T a b l e s X I I a n d
X I I I .
The s i x t h s t e p was t o d e l e t e t h o s e p a i r i n g s i n
T a b l e s X I I a n d X I I I w h ic h c o u l d n o t p r o f i t a b l y be u s e d
i n t h e s t u d y . A c c o r d i n g l y , two b a s e s f o r e x c l u s i o n w e re
a d o p t e d . F i r s t , a p a i r i n g was e x c l u d e d i f i t h a d l e s s
t h a n e i g h t y d i f f e r e n c e s t o i t s c r e d i t . T h i s f i g u r e was
c h o s e n f o l l o w i n g a p r e l i m i n a r y i n v e s t i g a t i o n o f s e v e r a l
p a i r i n g s s e l e c t e d a t rando m i n w h ic h v a r y i n g n u m b ers o f
d i f f e r e n c e s a p p e a r e d . R e l i a b i l i t y d e c r e a s e d c o n s i d e r a b l y
when n u m b e rs d r o p p e d b e lo w 80 a n d d i f f i c u l t y was
e n c o u n t e r e d i n m e e t i n g t h e a s s u m p t i o n s u n d e r l y i n g P e a r s o n
c o r r e l a t i o n . S e c o n d , a p a i r i n g was e x c l u d e d i f t h e
P e a r s o n c o r r e l a t i o n b e tw e e n t h e two g r a d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s
e x c e e d e d . 8 0 . T h is v a l u e w as s u g g e s t e d b y S e g e l (9 9 ) an d
B ro g d e n ( 2 7 ) . A c c o r d i n g t o t h e s e s o u r c e s , t h e v a l i d i t y o f
a c r i t e r i o n i n d i f f e r e n t i a l s c h o l a s t i c p r e d i c t i o n i s n o t
j e o p a r d i z e d u n t i l t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p b e tw e e n g r a d e p o i n t
a v e r a g e s i n t h e two s u b j e c t m a t t e r a r e a s r i s e s a b o v e t h i s
87
T A B L E H I .—The distribution of differences between grade point
averages for students in the sample from Junior College " A "
P airin gs o f Subject M atter Areas
195^
Group
1956
Group T otal
S o c ia l Studies Communicative Arts 154 15k 308
S o c ia l Studies
- P h y sica l Sciences
59 56 115
S o c ia l Studies
-
Fine Arts
52 63 115
Commun. A rts
- P h y sica l Sciences
57 55
112
Commun. A rts - Fine Arts
51 58 109
S o c ia l Studies
- Mathematics
^7 53
100
S o c ia l Studies
- Foreign Languages b b kQ
92
Commun. Arts - Foreign Languages
J+ 5
k 2 87
Commun. A rts - Mathematics k l
85
P h y sica l S c i.
- Mathematics
37 ^3
80
Fine A rts - Foreign Languages
19
26
^5
S o cia l Studies
-
B usiness 1^ 27 Ul
S o cia l Studies
-
S e c r e ta r ia l Science 22 lb 36
S o cia l Studies
- B io lo g ic a l Sciences 21 lb
35
Commun. Arts
- B io lo g ic a l Sciences 21 12
33
Fine A rts
- P h y sica l Sciences 18 14 32
Commun. Arts
-
B usiness 10 20 30
Commun. A rts
-
S e c r e ta r ia l Science
17 9
26
P h y sica l S ci. - Foreign Languages 11 li* 25
Fine Arts
- Mathematics 12 11
23
Mathematics - Foreign Languages 10 11 21
B usiness
-
S e c r e ta r ia l Science
9 9
18
B usiness
-
Mathematics k 11
15
Fine A rts
- B io lo g ic a l Sciences 8
5 13
B io lo g ic a l S c i. - P h y sica l Sciences 8 b 12
Fine Arts
-
S e c r e ta r ia l Science 7
2
9
B io lo g ic a l S c i. - Foreign Languages
5 9
Fine Arts
-
B usiness
3 5
8
B io lo g ic a l S c i. - Mathematics k 2 6
B usiness - P h y sica l Sciences 2
3 5
For. Languages - S e c r e ta r ia l Science 2 1
3
B usiness - Foreign Languages 1 2
3
Mathematics
-
S e c r e ta r ia l Science 2 0 2
P h y sica l S c i.
-
S e c r e ta r ia l Science 1 0 1
B io lo g ic a l S c i.
-
S e c r e ta r ia l Science 0 0 0
B usiness - B io lo g ic a l Sciences _ _ 0 _ _ 0 _______0
TO TA LS
Number o f students
821
191
833
20l+
1651+
395
88
T A B L E X III.—The distribution of differences between grade point
averages for students in the sample from Junior College " B "
P a irin g s o f Subject M atter Areas
1954
Group
1956
Group T otal
S o c ia l S tu d ies
-
Communicative A rts 242 207 449
S o c ia l S tu d ies - M athematics 88 60 148
Commun. A rts
-
Mathematics
71
64
135
S o c ia l S tu d ies
-
Fine A rts 74 60 134
S o c ia l S tu d ies
-
Foreign Languages 72 55
127
Commun. A rts
-
F ine A rts 69 55
124
S o c ia l S tu d ies
-
P h y sica l S cien ces 72 50 122
P h y sica l S c i.
- Mathematics
63 51
114
Commun. A rts
-
P h y sica l S cien ces 60 52 112
Commun. Arts
- Foreign Languages 62 44 106
S o c ia l S tu d ies
- B u sin ess 52 43 95
S o c ia l S tu d ies
- S e c r e ta r ia l Science 4l
49 90
Commun. A rts
-
B u sin ess
39 39
78
Commun. A rts
- B io lo g ic a l S cien ces
37 37
74
S o c ia l S tu d ies
-
B io lo g ic a l S cien ces
37
34 71
Commun. A rts - S e c r e ta r ia l Science
33
36 69
Fine A rts - Foreign Languages
33
20
53
Mathematics
- Foreign Languages 21 14
35
B usiness
- Mathematics
19 13
32
P h y sica l S c i. - F oreign languages
13
18
31
Fine A rts
- Mathematics 21 8 29
B u sin ess
- S e c r e ta r ia l Science 10
15 25
B io lo g ic a l S c i. - S e c r e ta r ia l Science 8 14 22
Fine A rts
- B u sin ess 16 6 22
B io lo g ic a l S c i. - P h y sica l S cien ces 11 11 22
Fine A rts
- P h y sica l S cien ces 11 8
19
B u sin ess
- Foreign Languages 11 6
17
Fine A rts
- S e c r e ta r ia l Science
9
6
15
Fine A rts - B io lo g ic a l S cien ces 10
3 13
B io lo g ic a l S c i.
- Mathematics
5
8
13
For. Languages - S e c r e ta r ia l Science
5 5
10
B u sin ess
- P h y sica l S cien ces
5
4
9
B io lo g ic a l S c i. - F oreign languages 4 2 6
Mathematics
- S e c r e ta r ia l Science 0 4 4
P h y sic a l S c i.
- S e c r e ta r ia l Science 0 2 2
B usiness - B io lo g ic a l S cien ces ____ 0 ____ 0 ______ 0
TO TALS 1324 1103 2427
Number of stu d en ts 333 307
640
89
point. Tables XIV and XV contain the coefficients for
each pairing in which the number of differences was 80
or larger. All of the twenty-two correlations presented
in these two tables were below .80 and their respective
critical ratios were significant at the one per cent
level.
At this point, the development of criteria for the
study of differential scholastic prediction was
considered complete. University parallel courses offered
by the two Junior colleges had been divided into nine
areas, data from the records of 1035 students had been
assembled, students1 grade point averages in the nine
subject matter areas had been computed, differences
between grade point averages in all possible pairings of
the subject matter areas had been obtained, and the two
lists of thirty-3ix pairings each had been reduced In
number to ten and twelve respectively. Differences
between grade point averages in these twenty-two
pairings of subject matter areas were considered to be
suitable criteria for use in the study of differential
scholastic prediction.
With the data from each Junior college treated
separately, Pearson correlations were then computed
between each of the sixteen predictors and each criterion.
9 0
TABLE XIV.—Pearson c o e f f ic ie n t s o f c o r r e la tio n between grade p o in t
averages and c r i t i c a l r a tio s rep resen tin g the s ig n ific a n c e o f th ese
c o e f f ic ie n t s : Junior C ollege "A "
P a irin g s o f Subject M atter Areas N r C R
S o c ia l S tu d ies - Communicative A rts 308 .636 11.158
S o c ia l S tu d ies - P h y sic a l S cien ces
115
A 81
5 .H 7
S o c ia l S tu d ies - Fine A rts
115
.388 U.128
Commun. A rts - P h y sica l S cien ces 112
A95
5.211
Ccramun. A rts - Fine A rts 109 .1+32 if. 500
S o c ia l S tu d ies - Mathematics 100 .U69 l*.6M *
S o c ia l S tu d ies - Foreign Languages 92 A 92 i* .686
Commun. A rts - Foreign Languages
87 .1*5 6
If. 222
Commun. A rts - Mathematics
85 .61*9 5.95^
P h y sica l S c i. - Mathematics 80
.679 6.009
91
TABLE XV.— P ea rso n c o e f f i c i e n t s o f c o r r e la t io n b etw een grad e p o in t
a v e r a g e s and c r i t i c a l r a t i o s r e p r e s e n tin g th e s ig n if ic a n c e o f th e s e
c o e f f i c i e n t s : J u n io r C o lle g e "B"
P a ir in g s o f S u b je c t M atter A reas N r CR
S o c ia l S tu d ie s - Com m unicative A r ts kk9 .5^8 l l . 6 6 o
S o c ia l S tu d ie s - M athem atics iu e .k38 5 .3 k l
Commun. A r ts - M athem atics
135 .3 1 8 3 .6 9 8
S o c ia l S tu d ie s - P in e A rts 13k .2 7 7
3 . 1 8 k
S o c ia l S tu d ie s - F o r e ig n Languages 127
.3 0 8 3 .k 6 l
Commun. A rts - F in e A rts 12k .3 lk 3.k 89
S o c ia l S tu d ie s - P h y s ic a l S c ie n c e s 122 .5 3 6 5 .8 9 0
P h y s ic a l S c i. - M athem atics I lk . 5k8 5 .8 3 0
Commun. A rts - P h y s ic a l S c ie n c e s 112 .k 28
k .5 0 5
Commun. A rts - F o r e ig n Languages 106
.315
3 . 2ik
S o c ia l S tu d ie s - B u sin e ss
95 .6 9 3
6 .7 2 8
S o c ia l S tu d ie s S e c r e t a r ia l S c ie n c e 90 .k55
k .2 9 2
The purpose herein was to determine the relative
effectiveness of individual predictors in forecasting
each criterion. Next, coefficients of multiple
correlation and beta weights for use in multiple
regression equations were obtained by means of the Wherry-
Doolittle method ( 1 0 : 4 3 5 - 4 5 1 , 1 1 : 4 4 7 - 4 4 8 ) . Only those
predictors which had correlated significantly, on an
individual basis, at the five per cent level of confidence
or better with a given criterion were used in the
calculation of the multiple correlation for that
criterion. Standard errors were computed for all
coefficients as a basis for Judging their respective
reliabilities.
IV . SUMMARY
The purpose of Chapter V was to describe the
procedure used in this study. It began with a statement
on the collection and refinement of the data and
proceeded with an explanation of how the data were
processed. The statistical designs used with general and
differential scholastic prediction were basically
similar. Pearson product moment coefficients of
correlation were computed between each criterion and each
predictor, providing that eighty or more students were
involved; multiple correlations were computed between
93
each criterion and the best combination of those
predictors which had correlated with it significantly on
an individual basis; and, beta weights were computed for
use in establishing multiple regression equations.
Coefficients of multiple correlation and beta weights
were estimated by the Wherry-Doolittle method, and data
for each Junior college sample were treated separately.
CHAPTER VI
A REPORT OP THE FINDINGS IN DIFFERENTIAL
SCHOLASTIC PREDICTION FOR THE SAMPLE
FROM JUNIOR COLLEGE "A”
The f i n d i n g s i n d i f f e r e n t i a l s c h o l a s t i c p r e d i c t i o n
f o r t h e s a m p le o f 3 9 5 s t u d e n t s fro m J u n i o r C o l l e g e "A"
a r e p r e s e n t e d i n t h i s c h a p t e r . I t i s o r g a n i z e d i n t h r e e
s e c t i o n s . The f i r s t c o n t a i n s a r e p o r t an d i n t e r p r e t a t i o n
o f c o r r e l a t i o n s b e tw e e n e a c h c r i t e r i o n an d e a c h o f t h e
s i x t e e n p r e d i c t o r s . The s e c o n d c o n t a i n s a r e p o r t and
i n t e r p r e t a t i o n o f m u l t i p l e c o r r e l a t i o n s b e tw e e n e a c h
c r i t e r i o n a n d t h e b e s t c o m b i n a t i o n o f t h o s e p r e d i c t o r s
w h ic h on an i n d i v i d u a l b a s i s h a d c o r r e l a t e d s i g n i f i c a n t l y
w i t h i t . F i n a l l y , t h e t h i r d c o n t a i n s a r e p o r t and
i n t e r p r e t a t i o n o f b e t a w e i g h t s t o g e t h e r w i t h t h e r e s u l t i n g
m u l t i p l e r e g r e s s i o n e q u a t i o n s . An e x p l a n a t i o n o f
a b b r e v i a t i o n s u s e d i n t h i s an d s u b s e q u e n t c h a p t e r s a p p e a r s
i n T a b l e XVI.
I . PEARSON CORRELATIONS BETWEEN SINGLE
PREDICTORS AND EACH CRITERION
The s t u d y o f d i f f e r e n t i a l s c h o l a s t i c p r e d i c t i o n was
b e g u n by a s c e r t a i n i n g t h e s t r e n g t h and d i r e c t i o n o f t h e
95
TABLE X V I.--A n e x p la n a tio n o f a b b re v ia te d t i t l e s f o r p r e d ic to r s u sed
in d i f f e r e n t i a l s c h o la s tic p r e d ic tio n
A b b re v ia tio n E x p la n a tio n
Q
ACE : Q u a n tita tiv e Score
L ACE: L in g u is tic Score
1 ITED: U n d erstan d in g o f B asic S o c ia l C oncepts
2 ITED: G en eral Background in th e N a tu ra l S cien ces
3
ITED: C o rre c tn e s s and A p p ro p ria te n e ss o f
E x p re ssio n
k ITED: A b i l it y to Do Q u a n tita tiv e T hin k in g
5
ITED: A b ility to I n t e r p r e t R eading M a te ria ls
in th e S o c ia l S tu d ie s
6 ITED: A b ility to I n t e r p r e t R eading M a te ria ls
in th e N a tu ra l S cien ces
7
ITED: A b ility to I n t e r p r e t L ite r a r y M a te ria ls
8 ITED: G en eral V ocabulary
9
ITED: Use o f S ources o f In fo rm a tio n
Eng High sc h o o l grade p o in t a v erag e in E ngliB h-
jo u m a lls m -s p e e c h c o u rse s
SS High sc h o o l grade p o in t av erag e in S o c ia l
s tu d ie s c o u rse s
Sci High sc h o o l grade p o in t a v erag e in S cience
c o u rse s
Math High sc h o o l grade p o in t a v erag e in
M athem atics c o u rse s
FL High sch o o l grade p o in t av erag e in F o re ig n
language c o u rse s
96
r e l a t i o n s h i p b e tw e e n e a c h o f t h e s i x t e e n p r e d i c t o r s a n d
e a c h o f t h e t e n c r i t e r i a . P e a r s o n p r o d u c t- m o m e n t
c o e f f i c i e n t s o f c o r r e l a t i o n w e re u s e d f o r t h i s p u r p o s e .
By s i z e , t h e c o e f f i c i e n t s w e re g e n e r a l l y s m a l l .
T w e n t y - f i v e p e r c e n t w e re b e lo w .05^# f i f t y p e r c e n t w e re
b e lo w . 1 0 0 , s e v e n t y - f i v e p e r c e n t w e re b e lo w . 1 7 1 # a n d
n i n e t y - n i n e p e r c e n t w e re b e lo w .3 1 0 . The mean v a l u e
w as .1 0 8 . T a b l e X V II c o n t a i n s t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f a l l
1 6 0 c o e f f i c i e n t s , w i t h o u t r e g a r d f o r s i g n s , i n s e v e n
i n t e r v a l s o f . 0 5 0 .
An i n t e g r a l p a r t i n t h e c a l c u l a t i o n o f e v e r y
c o e f f i c i e n t was a c h e c k on i t s s i g n i f i c a n c e . F o r t h i s
p u r p o s e a n u l l h y p o t h e s i s was d r a f t e d a n d a l l c o e f f i c i e n t s
w e re t e s t e d a g a i n s t i t . The h y p o t h e s i s p r o p o s e d t h a t
e a c h c o e f f i c i e n t w as b a s e d on a s a m p le o f p r e d i c t o r -
c r i t e r i o n m e a s u r e m e n ts t a k e n fro m a p o p u l a t i o n o f su c h
m e a s u r e m e n ts i n w h ic h t h e t r u e c o r r e l a t i o n b e tw e e n t h e
p r e d i c t o r a n d t h e c r i t e r i o n w as a c t u a l l y .0 0 0 an d t h a t
t h e o b t a i n e d c o e f f i c i e n t was a t t r i b u t a b l e t o r o u t i n e
v a r i a t i o n I n t h e c o u r s e o f rand om s a m p l i n g .
C r i t i c a l r a t i o s w e re t h e n p r e p a r e d f o r a l l
c o e f f i c i e n t s . T h o se y i e l d i n g q u o t i e n t s o f 1 . 9 6 o r b e t t e r
w e re j u d g e d t o b e s i g n i f i c a n t a n d , i n t u r n , t h e
r e s p e c t i v e n u l l h y p o t h e s e s w e re c o n s i d e r e d t o b e
u n t e n a b l e . The c h a n c e s w e re l e s s t h a n f i v e I n a h u n d r e d
97
TABLE X V I I.--D istr ib u tio n o f th e l6 0 Pearson c o e f f ic ie n t s o f
c o r r e la tio n computed in the study o f d if f e r e n t i a l s c h o la s t ic
p r e d ic tio n a t Ju n ior C o lleg e "A"
.300 -
• 3^9
2
1
O
i r \
OJ
*
.299 9
.200 - .21+9
13
1
O
Lf\
H
•
.199
28
.100 -
.ll+9
28
.050 -
.099
1 + 1 +
.000 - .Ql+9 _36
TO TAL 160
98
t h a t t h e s e c o e f f i c i e n t s c o u ld have been o b t a i n e d from
th e h y p o t h e t i c a l p o p u l a t i o n s w ith c o e f f i c i e n t s o f . 0 0 0 .
T h ree c o n c l u s i o n s seemed J u s t i f i e d when q u o t i e n t s were
1 .9 6 o r b e t t e r : (a) th e o b t a i n e d r v a lu e s c o u ld n o t be
a t t r i b u t e d t o t h e r e s u l t s o f random sa m p lin g in
p o p u l a t i o n s w here t h e t r u e c o r r e l a t i o n s betw een
p r e d i c t o r s and c r i t e r i a w ere . 0 0 0 ; (b) c o r r e l a t i o n s d id
a c t u a l l y e x i s t betw een t h e r e s p e c t i v e c o m b in a tio n s o f
p r e d i c t o r s and c r i t e r i a ; and (c) th e p a ra m e te r r v a lu e s
betw een th e p r e d i c t o r s and t h e c r i t e r i a w ere l o c a t e d
somewhere w i t h i n a d i s t a n c e o f one s t a n d a r d e r r o r in
e i t h e r d i r e c t i o n from th e o b t a i n e d r v a lu e s w ith a chance
e x p e c ta n c y o f two o u t o f t h r e e .
Q u o tie n ts f o r 136 o f t h e 160 r a t i o s were below 1 . 9 6 .
No f u r t h e r c o n s i d e r a t i o n was g iv e n th e c o e f f i c i e n t s from
w hich t h e s e r a t i o s w ere d e r i v e d . With r e g a r d t o th e
r e m a in in g c o e f f i c i e n t s , f o u r t e e n were s i g n i f i c a n t a t th e
f i v e p e r c e n t l e v e l o f c o n fid e n c e and t e n were s i g n i f i c a n t
a t t h e one p e r c e n t l e v e l . The number o f s i g n i f i c a n t
p r e d i c t o r s f o r each c r i t e r i o n v a r i e d from none i n th e
c a s e o f d i f f e r e n c e s betw een S o c i a l S t u d i e s - P h y s i c a l
S c ie n c e s g ra d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s t o f i v e in th e c a s e o f
d i f f e r e n c e s betw een S o c i a l S t u d i e s - Com m unicative A r ts
g ra d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s . When s i g n s were d i s r e g a r d e d , th e
99
t w e n t y - f o u r c o e f f i c i e n t s had a mean v a lu e o f . 2 3 ^ and
r a n g e d from .1 2 0 t o . 3 3 8 .
I n t e r p r e t a t i o n s o f t h e s i g n i f i c a n t c o e f f i c i e n t s
w ere made i n t h r e e ways: (a) by d i r e c t v i s u a l i n s p e c t i o n
o f t h e i r r v a l u e s ; (b) by c a l c u l a t i o n and a n a l y s i s o f
t h e i r I n d i c e s o f F o r e c a s t i n g E f f i c i e n c y ; and (c) by
c a l c u l a t i o n and a n a l y s i s o f t h e i r C o e f f i c i e n t s o f
D e t e r m i n a t i o n .
The i n t e r p r e t a t i o n o f a c o e f f i c i e n t by d i r e c t
v i s u a l I n s p e c t i o n d e p en ded on i t s s t a n d a r d e r r o r , i t s
s i z e , and i t s s i g n . The s m a l l e r t h e s t a n d a r d e r r o r , th e
more r e l i a b l e was t h e c o e f f i c i e n t . The l a r g e r t h e v a lu e
o f r , t h e s t r o n g e r was t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p b e tw ee n th e
p r e d i c t o r and t h e c r i t e r i o n . T h ese e le m e n ts o f t h e
i n t e r p r e t a t i o n w ere made w ith r e l a t i v e e a s e . The
i n t e r p r e t a t i o n w ith r e g a r d t o s i g n s , h o w ev er, was more
d i f f i c u l t .
When a c o e f f i c i e n t was p o s i t i v e , h ig h s c o r e s on th e
p r e d i c t o r w ere g e n e r a l l y a s s o c i a t e d w ith d i f f e r e n c e s in
w hich g ra d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s f o r t h e f i r s t s u b j e c t m a t t e r
a r e a e x c e e d e d g ra d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s f o r t h e se co n d s u b j e c t
m a t t e r a r e a . C o n v e r s e ly , low s c o r e s on t h e p r e d i c t o r
w ere g e n e r a l l y a s s o c i a t e d w ith d i f f e r e n c e s i n w hich g r a d e
p o i n t a v e r a g e s f o r t h e se co n d s u b j e c t m a t t e r a r e a
e x c e e d e d g r a d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s f o r t h e f i r s t s u b j e c t
100
m a t t e r a r e a . F o r e x a m p le , u s i n g t h e C o m m u n ic ativ e A r t s -
P h y s i c a l S c i e n c e s c r i t e r i o n f o r J u n i o r C o l l e g e "A ," t h e
c o e f f i c i e n t b e tw e e n i t and p r e d i c t o r " 5 , ” i . e . , .3 3 8 ,
was i n t e r p r e t e d t o m ean t h a t h i g h s c o r e s o n p r e d i c t o r " 5 ”
w e re g e n e r a l l y a s s o c i a t e d w i t h d i f f e r e n c e s i n w h ic h g r a d e
p o i n t a v e r a g e s f o r c o u r s e s i n t h e C o m m u n ic ativ e A r t s
e x c e e d e d t h o s e f o r c o u r s e s i n t h e P h y s i c a l S c i e n c e s a n d
t h a t low s c o r e s on p r e d i c t o r ”5 " w ere g e n e r a l l y
a s s o c i a t e d w i t h d i f f e r e n c e s i n w h ic h g r a d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s
f o r c o u r s e s i n t h e P h y s i c a l S c i e n c e s e x c e e d e d t h o s e f o r
c o u r s e s i n t h e C o m m u n ic ativ e A r t s .
A n e g a t i v e c o e f f i c i e n t , on t h e o t h e r h a n d , was
g i v e n a r e v e r s e i n t e r p r e t a t i o n . H ig h s c o r e s o n th e
p r e d i c t o r w ere g e n e r a l l y a s s o c i a t e d w i t h d i f f e r e n c e s i n
w h ic h g r a d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s f o r th e s e c o n d s u b j e c t m a t t e r
a r e a e x c e e d e d g r a d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s f o r t h e f i r s t s u b j e c t
m a t t e r a r e a . By c o n t r a s t , low s c o r e s on t h e p r e d i c t o r
w e re g e n e r a l l y a s s o c i a t e d w i t h d i f f e r e n c e s i n w h ic h g r a d e
p o i n t a v e r a g e s f o r t h e f i r s t s u b j e c t m a t t e r a r e a
e x c e e d e d g r a d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s f o r t h e s e c o n d s u b j e c t
m a t t e r a r e a . The c o r r e l a t i o n b e tw e e n p r e d i c t o r "Eng" and
t h e P h y s i c a l S c i e n c e s - M a th e m a tic s c r i t e r i o n f o r J u n i o r
C o l l e g e "A ," i . e . , - .3 2 3 * r e p r e s e n t s a c a s e i n p o i n t .
H ig h v a l u e s f o r p r e d i c t o r "Eng" w e re g e n e r a l l y a s s o c i a t e d
w i t h d i f f e r e n c e s i n w h ic h g r a d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s f o r c o u r s e s
101
In M a th e m a tic s e x c e e d e d g r a d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s f o r c o u r s e s
In t h e P h y s i c a l S c i e n c e s , w h i l e low v a l u e s on p r e d i c t o r
"E ng” w ere g e n e r a l l y a s s o c i a t e d w i t h d i f f e r e n c e s i n
w hich g r a d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s f o r c o u r s e s i n t h e P h y s i c a l
S c i e n c e s e x c e e d e d g r a d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s f o r c o u r s e s i n
M a t h e m a t i c s .
The s e c o n d m eans by w h ic h i n t e r p r e t a t i o n s w ere
made i n v o l v e d e a c h c o e f f i c i e n t ' s In d e x o f F o r e c a s t i n g
E f f i c i e n c y ( 1 1 : 4 l 0 ~ 4 l l ) . The p u r p o s e i n u s i n g t h i s
i n t e r p r e t i v e medium was t o d e t e r m i n e t h e d e g r e e o f
p r e d i c t i v e e f f i c i e n c y c o n t a i n e d i n e a c h p r e d i c t o r -
c r i t e r i o n r e l a t i o n s h i p a s r e p r e s e n t e d by a p e r c e n t a g e In
e x c e s s o f c h a n c e . The E v a l u e s f o r t h e t w e n t y - f o u r
s i g n i f i c a n t c o r r e l a t i o n s ra n g e d fro m 0 . 7 2 p e r c e n t
t h r o u g h 5 -8 8 p e r c e n t ( p r e d i c t o r " 5 M v e r s u s C om m un icative
A r t s - P h y s i c a l S c i e n c e s d i f f e r e n c e s ) and h a d a mean
v a l u e o f 2 .9 7 1 p e r c e n t . T h u s, by u s e o f t h e In d e x o f
F o r e c a s t i n g E f f i c i e n c y , t h e t w e n t y - f o u r s i g n i f i c a n t
c o e f f i c i e n t s o f c o r r e l a t i o n w ere fo u n d t o o f f e r a mean
d e g r e e o f p r e d i c t a b i l i t y a p p r o x i m a t e l y t h r e e p e r c e n t
g r e a t e r t h a n c h a n c e .
The t h i r d m eans by w hich i n t e r p r e t a t i o n s w ere made
I n v o l v e d e a c h c o r r e l a t i o n ' s C o e f f i c i e n t o f D e t e r m i n a t i o n
2
( r ) c o n v e r t e d t o a p e r c e n t . The p u r p o s e h e r e i n was t o
d e t e r m i n e t h e p e r c e n t a g e o f v a r i a n c e i n e a c h p r e d i c t o r
102
w hich c o u ld he a s s o c i a t e d w i t h v a r i a n c e i n th e c r i t e r i o n .
V a lu e s f o r th e t w e n t y - f o u r s i g n i f i c a n t c o e f f i c i e n t s
v a r i e d from 1 .4 4 0 p e r c e n t th r o u g h 1 1 .4 2 4 p e r c e n t w ith a
mean v a lu e o f 5 .8 3 ^ p e r c e n t . Hence, t h e p e r c e n t a g e o f
v a r i a n c e fo u n d i n common among p r e d i c t o r s and t h e i r
c o r r e s p o n d in g c r i t e r i a was low b u t n o te w o rth y .
The t w e n t y - f o u r s i g n i f i c a n t c o e f f i c i e n t s were
s u b m itte d to a th o ro u g h a n a l y s i s . O b s e r v a tio n s
c o n c e r n in g p r e d i c t o r - c r l t e r i o n r e l a t i o n s h i p s were made
and a r e p r e s e n t e d i n s u b s e q u e n t p a r a g r a p h s . Each
p a r a g r a p h b e g in s w i t h an a b b r e v i a t e d i d e n t i f i c a t i o n o f
th e p r e d i c t o r 1 and p r o c e e d s (a) w i t h th e t i t l e s o f th o s e
c r i t e r i a w ith w hich i t c o r r e l a t e d s i g n i f i c a n t l y , (b) w i t h
th e c o e f f i c i e n t s o f c o r r e l a t i o n b e tw ee n i t and th e c i t e d
c r i t e r i a , and (c) w i t h p e r t i n e n t comments c o n c e r n in g th e
r e l a t i o n s h i p s .
P r e d i c t o r Q:
Com m unicative A r t s - F o r e i g n L anguages ( r , .294)
S o c i a l S t u d i e s - F o r e i g n L anguages ( r , .288)
P r e d i c t o r " Q ," a t e s t o f s c h o l a s t i c a p t i t u d e i n
s u b j e c t s w h ich r e q u i r e th e c o m p re h en sio n and
a p p l i c a t i o n o f q u a n t i t a t i v e c o n c e p ts , f a i l e d to
1See T a b le XVT f o r e x p l a n a t i o n s o f a b b r e v i a t i o n s .
103
c o r r e l a t e s i g n i f i c a n t l y w i t h a n y c r i t e r i o n b a s e d on
a p a i r i n g w hich I n c lu d e d a q u a n t i t a t i v e s u b j e c t
m a t t e r a r e a , I . e . , th e P h y s i c a l S c ie n c e s and
M a th e m a tic s. The two s i g n i f i c a n t c o r r e l a t i o n s
in v o lv e d c r i t e r i a i n w hich th e s u b j e c t a r e a s b e in g
p a i r e d were commonly r e g a r d e d a s l i n g u i s t i c , n o t
q u a n t i t a t i v e . T hus, p r e d i c t o r "Q" was fou nd to
d i f f e r e n t i a t e b e s t b e tw ee n n o n - q u a n t i t a t i v e
a l t e r n a t i v e s . I n b o t h c o r r e l a t i o n s , low s c o r e s on
th e p r e d i c t o r were a s s o c i a t e d w i t h d i f f e r e n c e s i n
w hich a v e r a g e s f o r th e F o r e i g n L anguages ex ceeded
a v e r a g e s f o r th e p a i r e d s u b j e c t m a t t e r a r e a s .
P r e d i c t o r L:
S o c i a l S t u d i e s - M a th em atics ( r , . 2 5 7)
S o c i a l S t u d i e s - F in e A rtB ( r , .205)
P r e d i c t o r " L , " a t e s t o f s c h o l a s t i c a p t i t u d e i n
s u b j e c t s w hich e m p h asize v e r b a l u n d e r s t a n d i n g and
e x p r e s s i o n , c o r r e l a t e d s i g n i f i c a n t l y w ith two o f th e
f i v e c r i t e r i a i n w hich th e S o c i a l S t u d i e s a r e a was a
member o f th e p a i r i n g b u t w i t h none i n w hich th e
Com m unicative ArtB o r th e F o r e ig n L anguages were
members. I n b o t h c o r r e l a t i o n s , th e h i g h e r s c o r e s on
p r e d i c t o r ”L,f w ere a s s o c i a t e d w i t h d i f f e r e n c e s i n
w hich S o c i a l S t u d i e s g ra d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s ex ceeded
104
the paired grade point averages for two non-
lingulstlc subject matter areas.
P r e d i c t o r 1.:
S o c i a l S t u d i e s - F o r e ig n L anguages ( r , .239)
Com m unicative A r t s - P h y s i c a l S c ie n c e s ( r , .212)
S o c i a l S t u d i e s - Com m unicative A r t s ( r , .198)
P r e d i c t o r " l , " a n a c h ie v e m e n t t e s t c o n c e rn e d w i t h
s o c i a l c o n c e p ts , c o r r e l a t e d s i g n i f i c a n t l y w i t h two o f
th e f i v e c r i t e r i a w hich were b a s e d on p a i r i n g s
i n c l u d i n g th e S o c i a l S t u d i e s a r e a . I n b o t h c a s e s ,
h ig h s c o r e s on p r e d i c t o r " l " were a s s o c i a t e d w ith
d i f f e r e n c e s i n w hich g ra d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s f o r th e
S o c i a l S t u d i e s e x ce ed e d g ra d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s f o r th e
o p p o sin g s u b j e c t m a t t e r a r e a s . F o r t h a t c r i t e r i o n
from w hich th e S o c i a l S t u d i e s a r e a was a b s e n t ,
p r e d i c t o r ”1" d i f f e r e n t i a t e d b e tw ee n two s u b j e c t
m a t t e r a r e a s w hich, l i k e i t s e l f , a r e commonly
r e g a r d e d a s b e in g h e a v i l y s a t u r a t e d w i t h v e r b a l o r
l i n g u i s t i c c o n t e n t .
P r e d i c t o r 2 :
S o c i a l S t u d i e s - F o r e ig n L anguages ( r , . 2 9 5)
Com municative A r ts - F o r e ig n L anguages f r , .241)
S o c i a l S t u d i e s - Com m unicative ArtB ( r , . 1 7 1)
P r e d i c t o r " 2 ," a n a c h ie v e m e n t t e s t c o n c e rn e d w i t h th e
n a t u r a l s c i e n c e s , f a i l e d t o c o r r e l a t e s i g n i f i c a n t l y
w ith any c r i t e r i o n b a se d on a p a i r i n g w hich i n c l u d e d
105
t h e c l o s e s t s u b j e c t m a t t e r p a r a l l e l a v a i l a b l e , i . e . ,
t h e P h y s i c a l S c i e n c e s . L i k e p r e d i c t o r " Q , H t h i s
p r e d i c t o r w as f o u n d t o d i f f e r e n t i a t e b e s t b e t w e e n
s u b j e c t m a t t e r a l t e r n a t i v e s c o m p l e t e l y d i v o r c e d f r o m
t h e P h y s i c a l S c i e n c e s . A s e c o n d s i m i l a r i t y i n v o l v e d
t h e p r e s e n c e o f t h e F o r e i g n L a n g u a g e s a r e a i n tw o o f
t h e c r i t e r i a w i t h w h i c h i t c o r r e l a t e d s i g n i f i c a n t l y .
I n b o t h c a s e s , d i f f e r e n c e s i n w h i c h g r a d e p o i n t
a v e r a g e s i n t h e F o r e i g n L a n g u a g e s e x c e e d e d g r a d e
p o i n t a v e r a g e s i n t h e p a i r e d s u b j e c t m a t t e r a r e a s
w e re m o re l i k e l y t o b e a s s o c i a t e d w i t h lo w s c o r e s o n
t h e p r e d i c t o r t h a n w i t h h i g h s c o r e s .
P r e d i c t o r
P r e d i c t o r " 3 , " a n E n g l i s h a c h i e v e m e n t t e s t , f a i l e d
t o c o r r e l a t e s i g n i f i c a n t l y w i t h a n y c r i t e r i o n .
P r e d i c t o r
S o c i a l S t u d i e s - F o r e i g n L a n g u a g e s ( r , . 2 6 5 )
C o m m u n ic a tiv e A r t s - M a t h e m a t i c s C r, - . 2 6 1 )
S o c i a l S t u d i e s - C o m m u n ic a tiv e A r t s ( r , .1 2 8 )
P r e d i c t o r " 4 , " a m e a s u r e o f q u a n t i t a t i v e t h i n k i n g ,
c o r r e l a t e d s i g n i f i c a n t l y w i t h t h r e e c r i t e r i a .
H o w e v e r, o n l y o n e o f t h e s e w as b a s e d o n a p a i r i n g
w h ic h i n c l u d e d t h e M a t h e m a t i c s a r e a a n d n o n e w as
b a s e d o n a p a i r i n g w h i c h i n c l u d e d t h e P h y s i c a l
S c i e n c e s a r e a . W ith r e g a r d t o t h a t c r i t e r i o n i n
106
w h ic h t h e M a t h e m a t i c s a r e a a p p e a r e d , h i g h s c o r e s o n
t h e p r e d i c t o r w e re a s s o c i a t e d w i t h d i f f e r e n c e s i n
w h ic h M a t h e m a t i c s g r a d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s e x c e e d e d
g r a d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s i n t h e o p p o s i n g s u b j e c t m a t t e r
a r e a . L ik e p r e d i c t o r s "Q" a n d " 2 , M p r e d i c t o r M 4 ,f
c o r r e l a t e d s i g n i f i c a n t l y w i t h tw o c r i t e r i a b a s e d
e x c l u s i v e l y o n p a i r i n g s o f n o n - q u a n t i t a t i v e s u b j e c t
m a t t e r . I n b o t h c a s e s , lo w s c o r e s o n t h e p r e d i c t o r
w e re a s s o c i a t e d w i t h d i f f e r e n c e s f o r w h i c h g r a d e
p o i n t a v e r a g e s i n t h e F o r e i g n L a n g u a g e s e x c e e d e d
g r a d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s i n t h e o p p o s i n g s u b j e c t m a t t e r
a r e a s .
P r e d i c t o r 5.:
C o m m u n ic a tiv e A r t s - P h y s i c a l S c i e n c e s ( r , .3 3 8 )
S o c i a l S t u d i e s - F i n e A r t s t r , .1 9 2 )
S o c i a l S t u d i e s - C o m m u n ic a tiv e A r t s ( r , .1 3 1 )
P r e d i c t o r " 5 , " a m e a s u r e o f I n t e r p r e t i v e s k i l l w i t h
r e a d i n g m a t e r i a l s f r o m t h e s o c i a l s t u d i e s , c o r r e l a t e d
s i g n i f i c a n t l y w i t h tw o o f t h e f i v e c r i t e r i a b a s e d o n
p a i r i n g s i n w h ic h t h e S o c i a l S t u d i e s a r e a a p p e a r e d .
I n b o t h c a s e s , c o r r e l a t i o n s w e re w eak a n d h i g h s c o r e s
o n t h e p r e d i c t o r w e re a s s o c i a t e d w i t h d i f f e r e n c e s i n
w h ic h g r a d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s f o r t h e S o c i a l S t u d i e s
a r e a e x c e e d e d g r a d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s i n t h e p a i r e d
a r e a s . The r e m a i n i n g c o e f f i c i e n t i n v o l v e d a
107
c r i t e r i o n w i t h w hich p r e d i c t o r "1" a l s o c o r r e l a t e d
s i g n i f i c a n t l y , i . e . , Com m unicative A r ts - P h y s i c a l
S c i e n c e s , D i f f e r e n c e s i n w hich g ra d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s
i n th e Com m unicative A r t s e x ce ed e d g ra d e p o i n t
a v e r a g e s i n th e P h y s i c a l S c ie n c e s w ere l i k e w i s e
a s s o c i a t e d w i t h th e h i g h e r s c o r e s on th e p r e d i c t o r .
P r e d i c t o r 6:
S o c i a l S t u d i e s - M ath em atics ( r , .266]
S o c i a l S t u d i e s - Com m unicative A r ts ( r , .120)
P r e d i c t o r " 6 ," a t e s t o f a b i l i t y to i n t e r p r e t
r e a d i n g m a t e r i a l s from th e n a t u r a l s c i e n c e s , f a i l e d
t o c o r r e l a t e s i g n i f i c a n t l y w i t h any c r i t e r i o n
i n v o l v i n g th e P h y s i c a l S c i e n c e s . B o th o f th e
c r i t e r i a w i t h w hich i t c o r r e l a t e d s i g n i f i c a n t l y were
b a se d on p a i r i n g s w hich in c l u d e d th e S o c i a l S t u d i e s
a r e a and i n b o th c a s e s h ig h s c o r e s on th e p r e d i c t o r
were a s s o c i a t e d w ith d i f f e r e n c e s i n w hich g ra d e
p o i n t a v e r a g e s f o r th e S o c i a l S t u d i e s e x c e e d e d g ra d e
p o i n t a v e r a g e s f o r th e o p p o s in g a r e a s . These
f i n d i n g s were i d e n t i c a l w ith th o s e p r e v i o u s l y
r e p o r t e d f o r p r e d i c t o r " 2 ," a n a c h ie v e m e n t t e s t
l i k e w i s e c o n c e rn e d w i t h th e n a t u r a l s c i e n c e s .
P r e d i c t o r J_:
S o c i a l S t u d i e s - M a th em atics ( r , .214)
P r e d i c t o r " 7 a m easure o f i n t e r p r e t i v e s k i l l w ith
l i t e r a r y m a t e r i a l s , d i d n o t c o r r e l a t e s i g n i f i c a n t l y
w i t h an y c r i t e r i o n i n v o l v i n g th e Com m unicative A r t s .
P r e d i c t o r 8:
S o c i a l S t u d i e s - M a th em atics ( r , .286)
P r e d i c t o r ”8 , " a g e n e r a l v o c a b u la r y t e s t , c o r r e l a t e d
s i g n i f i c a n t l y w i t h one c r i t e r i o n . T h at c r i t e r i o n
was b a se d on d i f f e r e n c e s b e tw ee n a s u b j e c t m a t t e r
a r e a w hich r e q u i r e d a b ro a d and v a r i e d v o c a b u la r y
and a n o t h e r w hich r e q u i r e d a more l i m i t e d and
s p e c i a l i z e d v o c a b u la r y . H igh s c o r e s on th e p r e d i c t o r
w ere a s s o c i a t e d w ith d i f f e r e n c e s i n w hich g ra d e p o i n t
a v e r a g e s f o r th e a r e a r e q u i r i n g a g e n e r a l v o c a b u la r y
e x ce ed e d g ra d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s f o r th e a r e a r e q u i r i n g
a more s p e c i a l i z e d v o c a b u la r y .
P r e d i c t o r
Com municative A r ts - M a th em atics ( r , - .2 8 3 )
P r e d i c t o r " 9 , ” e n t i t l e d "Use o f S o u rc e s o f
I n f o r m a t i o n , " c o r r e l a t e d s i g n i f i c a n t l y w ith one
c r i t e r i o n . An i n t e r e s t i n g o b s e r v a t i o n was made,
how ever, r e g a r d i n g th e d i r e c t i o n o f th e
d i f f e r e n t i a t i o n . High s c o r e s on p r e d i c t o r " 9 M w ere
109
a s s o c i a t e d w ith d i f f e r e n c e s I n w hich M a th em atics
g ra d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s e x ce ed e d t h o s e f o r th e
C om m unicative A r t3 , i . e . , t h e o p p o s in g s u b j e c t
m a t t e r a r e a . By p o p u l a r s t e r e o t y p e th e d e g re e o f
p r o f i c i e n c y i n l i b r a r y s k i l l s r e q u i r e d f o r a g iv e n
l e v e l o f s u c c e s s i n m a th e m a tic s i s g e n e r a l l y
r e g a r d e d a3 much l e s s th a n t h a t r e q u i r e d f o r a
co m p arab le l e v e l o f s u c c e s s i n th e co m m un icative
a r t s . In t h i s r e s e a r c h s t u d y , low s c o r e s on
p r e d i c t o r "9" w ere fou nd t o b e t h e b e t t e r p r e d i c t o r s
o f d i f f e r e n c e s in w hich g ra d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s f o r th e
Com m unicative A r ts e x ceed ed th o s e f o r th e
M a th em atics a r e a .
P r e d i c t o r E ng:
P h y s i c a l S c ie n c e s - M a th em atics (r, -.323)
P r e d i c t o r "EngM f a i l e d t o c o r r e l a t e s i g n i f i c a n t l y
w ith any c r i t e r i o n b a s e d on a p a i r i n g in w hich th e
Com m unicative A r t s , t h e c l o s e s t p a r a l l e l among th e
n i n e s u b j e c t m a t t e r a r e a s , a p p e a re d a s an a l t e r n a t i v e .
R a th e r , i t c o r r e l a t e d w ith a c r i t e r i o n b a se d on
d i f f e r e n c e s b etw een two r e l a t i v e l y n o n - v e r b a l and
two o f th e more c l o s e l y r e l a t e d s u b j e c t m a t t e r a r e a s
( r , . 6 7 9) . The h i g h e r v a l u e s on p r e d i c t o r "Eng" were
more commonly a s s o c i a t e d w ith d i f f e r e n c e s i n which
110
M a th em atics g ra d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s e x ce ed e d g ra d e
p o i n t a v e r a g e s In th e p a i r e d s u b j e c t m a t t e r a r e a s
t h a n w ith d i f f e r e n c e s In t h e r e v e r s e d i r e c t i o n .
P r e d i c t o r S 3 :
C om m unicative A r ts - F in e A r ts ( r , .203)
P r e d i c t o r "SS" d i d n o t c o r r e l a t e s i g n i f i c a n t l y w ith
any o f th e f i v e c r i t e r i a i n w hich th e S o c i a l S t u d i e s
s u b j e c t m a t t e r a r e a a p p e a re d .
P r e d i c t o r S c i :
P r e d i c t o r " S c i" f a i l e d t o c o r r e l a t e s i g n i f i c a n t l y
w ith any c r i t e r i o n .
P r e d i c t o r Math:
Com m unicative A r t s - M a th em atics ( r , - . 2 6 1)
P r e d i c t o r "Math" c o r r e l a t e d s i g n i f i c a n t l y w ith o n ly
one o f th e t h r e e c r i t e r i a w hich w ere b a s e d on
p a i r i n g s i n c l u d i n g th e M a th em atics s u b j e c t m a t t e r
a r e a . In t h i s one c a s e , th e h i g h e r v a lu e s on
p r e d i c t o r "Math" were a s s o c i a t e d w ith d i f f e r e n c e s
i n w hich g ra d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s i n t h e M a th em atics
a r e a e x ce ed e d g ra d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s i n th e
C om m unicative A r t s a r e a .
Ill
P r e d i c t o r PL:
P r e d i c t o r "FL" f a i l e d t o c o r r e l a t e s i g n i f i c a n t l y
w i t h an y c r i t e r i o n .
As t h e s i x t e e n p r e d i c t o r s w ere s t u d i e d and
e v a l u a t e d , s e v e r a l g e n e r a l o b s e r v a t i o n s w ere made w h ich
Beemed w o rth y o f n o t e :
1. The l a r g e s t num ber o f s i g n i f i c a n t c o r r e l a t i o n s
b e tw e e n a g i v e n p r e d i c t o r and a n y o f th e t e n
c r i t e r i a was t h r e e . P o u r p r e d i c t o r s w ere
c r e d i t e d w i t h t h i s num ber. They w ere:
P r e d i c t o r s " 1 ," " 2 ," " 4 , " and " 5 . " By t h i s
s t a n d a r d , t h e s e w ere t h e f o u r m o st s u c c e s s f u l
p r e d i c t o r s o f d i f f e r e n c e s i n g r a d e p o i n t
a v e r a g e s f o r t h e sam ple from J u n i o r C o lle g e "A ."
2. T h ree p r e d i c t o r s d i d n o t c o r r e l a t e
s i g n i f i c a n t l y w i t h a n y o f th e c r i t e r i a . They
w e re : P r e d i c t o r s " 3 j " " S c i , " and " F L ."
3. When s i g n s w ere d i s r e g a r d e d , t h e t h r e e
s i g n i f i c a n t c o r r e l a t i o n s b e tw e e n g r a d e p o i n t
a v e r a g e s i n a r e a s o f h i g h s c h o o l s u b j e c t m a t t e r
and th e t e n c r i t e r i a had a mean v a lu e o f .2 7 0 ;
th e f o u r s i g n i f i c a n t c o r r e l a t i o n s b e tw e e n
s u b - t e s t s o f t h e ACE and t h e t e n c r i t e r i a had
a mean v a lu e o f . 2 6 1 ; and t h e s e v e n t e e n
s i g n i f i c a n t c o r r e l a t i o n s b e tw e e n t e s t s o f th e
ITED and t h e t e n c r i t e r i a h a d a mean v a l u e
o f . 2 2 6 .
P r e d i c t o r s "2 " an d "Q" b o t h c o r r e l a t e d
s i g n i f i c a n t l y w i t h t h e tw o c r i t e r i a b a s e d on
s u b j e c t m a t t e r p a i r i n g s i n w h ic h t h e F o r e i g n
L a n g u a g e s a r e a a p p e a r e d . I n b o t h c a s e s ,
d i f f e r e n c e s i n w h ic h g r a d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s f o r
t h e F o r e i g n L a n g u a g e s a r e a e x c e e d e d g r a d e
p o i n t a v e r a g e s f o r t h e o p p o s i n g s u b j e c t m a t t e r
a r e a s w e re p r e d i c t e d b e s t by low s c o r e s on t h e
two p r e d i c t o r s .
Of t h e t w e n t y - f o u r s i g n i f i c a n t c o r r e l a t i o n s ,
f i f t e e n i n v o l v e d c r i t e r i a b a s e d on p a i r i n g s
i n w h ic h t h e S o c i a l S t u d i e s a r e a a p p e a r e d . In
a l l c a s e s , h i g h s c o r e s on t h e p r e d i c t o r s w ere
a s s o c i a t e d w i t h d i f f e r e n c e s i n w h ic h g r a d e
p o i n t a v e r a g e s f o r t h e S o c i a l S t u d i e s a r e a
e x c e e d e d g r a d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s f o r t h e o p p o s i n g
s u b j e c t m a t t e r a r e a s .
The C o m m u n ic a tiv e A r t s a r e a a p p e a r e d i n t h e
c r i t e r i a o f e l e v e n c o r r e l a t i o n s . I n e i g h t o f
t h e e l e v e n , h i g h s c o r e s on t h e p r e d i c t o r w e re
a s s o c i a t e d w i t h d i f f e r e n c e s i n w h ic h g r a d e p o i n t
a v e r a g e s f o r t h e o p p o s i n g s u b j e c t m a t t e r a r e a s
113
e x c e e d e d g r a d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s f o r t h e
C om m unicativ e A r t s a r e a .
7 . Among t h e s i x p r e d i c t o r s w h ic h w ere Ju d g e d to
be q u a n t i t a t i v e i n c o n t e n t ( i . e . , " Q ," " 2 , " " 4 , "
" 6 , " " M a th ," an d " S c i " ) , t h r e e ( i . e . , " 4 , " " 6 , "
a n d "M ath") c o r r e l a t e d s i g n i f i c a n t l y t h r e e tim e s
w i t h t h e two c r i t e r i a b a s e d on p a i r i n g s o f a
q u a n t i t a t i v e v e r s u s a l i n g u i s t i c s u b j e c t m a t t e r
a r e a ( i . e . , S o c i a l S t u d i e s - M a th e m a tic s and
C o m m u nicative A r t s - M a t h e m a t i c s ) . I n two o f
th e t h r e e c o r r e l a t i o n s , h i g h s c o r e s on th e
p r e d i c t o r w ere a s s o c i a t e d w i t h d i f f e r e n c e s i n
w h ic h g r a d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s f o r t h e q u a n t i t a t i v e
a r e a e x c e e d e d g r a d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s f o r th e
l i n g u i s t i c a r e a s . P r e d i c t o r s , c r i t e r i a , and
c o e f f i c i e n t s o f c o r r e l a t i o n f o r t h e t h r e e
r e l a t i o n s h i p s a p p e a r i n T a b le X V III.
8. Among th e t e n p r e d i c t o r s w h ic h w ere c o n s i d e r e d
t o be l i n g u i s t i c i n c o n t e n t ( i . e . , " L , " " 1 ,"
” 3 , " " 5 , " " 7 , " " 8 , " " 9 , ” " E n g ," " S S ," and "P L " ),
f o u r ( i . e . , " L , " " 7 , " " 8 , " and "9 ") c o r r e l a t e d
s i g n i f i c a n t l y f o u r t im e s w i t h t h e two c r i t e r i a
b a s e d on p a i r i n g s o f a q u a n t i t a t i v e v e r s u s a
l i n g u i s t i c s u b j e c t m a t t e r a r e a . I n t h r e e o f
t h e f o u r c o r r e l a t i o n s , h i g h s c o r e s on th e
lll+
TABLE X V I I I .- - C o e f f ic ie n t s o f c o r r e la t io n betw een s e le c t e d
p r e d ic to r s c o n sid e r e d to be q u a n tit a tiv e In c o n te n t and tv o c r i t e r i a
b a sed on d if f e r e n c e s betw een l i n g u i s t i c and q u a n tit a tiv e s u b je c t
m a tte r a r e a s
P r e d ic to r C r ite r io n C o r r e la tio n
6 S o c ia l S tu d ie s - M athem atics .2 6 6
k Communicative A rts - M athem atics - .2 6 1
Math Communicative A rts - M athem atics -.2 1 ^
p r e d i c t o r s w e re a s s o c i a t e d w i t h d i f f e r e n c e s i n
w h ic h g r a d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s f o r t h e l i n g u i s t i c
s u b j e c t m a t t e r a r e a s e x c e e d e d g r a d e p o i n t
a v e r a g e s f o r t h e q u a n t i t a t i v e s u b j e c t m a t t e r
a r e a ( i . e . , t h e M a t h e m a t i c s a r e a ) . P r e d i c t o r B ,
c r i t e r i a , a n d c o e f f i c i e n t s o f c o r r e l a t i o n f o r
t h e f o u r r e l a t i o n s h i p s a p p e a r i n T a b l e XIX.
9 . I n t h e o n l y s i g n i f i c a n t c o r r e l a t i o n b e tw e e n a
p r e d i c t o r a n d t h e l o n e c r i t e r i o n b a s e d o n
d i f f e r e n c e s b e tw e e n tw o q u a n t i t a t i v e B u b j e c t
m a t t e r a r e a s ( i . e . , P h y s i c a l S c i e n c e s -
M a t h e m a t i c s ) , t h e p r e d i c t o r w as t h e h i g h l y
l i n g u i s t i c " E n g . "
10 . S i x p r e d i c t o r s c o r r e l a t e d s i g n i f i c a n t l y e l e v e n
t i m e s w i t h t h e t h r e e c r i t e r i a b a s e d o n p a i r i n g s
o f l i n g u i s t i c s u b j e c t m a t t e r a r e a s ( i . e . ,
S o c i a l S t u d i e s - C o m m u n ic a tiv e A r t s , S o c i a l
S t u d i e s - F o r e i g n L a n g u a g e s , a n d C o m m u n ic a tiv e
A r t s - F o r e i g n L a n g u a g e s ) . The t h r e e
c o r r e l a t i o n s i n v o l v i n g l i n g u i s t i c p r e d i c t o r s
h a d a m ean r v a l u e o f .1 8 9 w h i l e t h e e i g h t
c o r r e l a t i o n s i n v o l v i n g q u a n t i t a t i v e p r e d i c t o r s
h a d a m ean r v a l u e o f .2 3 2 .
1 1 . I n e i g h t o f t h e t e n s i g n i f i c a n t c o r r e l a t i o n s i n
w h ic h p r e d i c t o r s " Q , " " 2 , " " 4 , " a n d "6"
116
TABLE X IX.— C o e f f ic ie n t s o f c o r r e la t io n betw een s e le c t e d p r e d ic to r s
c o n sid er e d to be l i n g u i s t i c in c o n te n t and two c r i t e r i a based
on d iff e r e n c e s betw een l i n g u i s t i c and q u a n tit a tiv e s u b je c t
m a tter a r ea s
P r e d ic to r C r ite r io n C o r r e la tio n
8 S o c ia l S tu d ie s - M athem atics .286
L S o c ia l S tu d ie s - M athem atics
.257
7
S o c ia l S tu d ie s - M athem atics .21^
9
Communicative A rts - M athem atics -.283
a p p e a r e d , t h e c r i t e r i a w ere b a s e d on p a i r s o f
h i g h l y v e r b a l i z e d s u b j e c t m a t t e r a r e a s . T h is
o b s e r v a t i o n was c o n s i d e r e d n o te w o r th y b e c a u s e
e a c h o f t h e f o u r p r e d i c t o r s was c o n s i d e r e d t o
have a n o n - v e r b a l e m p h a s is . T h u s, f o u r
p r e d i c t o r s g e n e r a l l y r e g a r d e d a s b e i n g n o n
v e r b a l l y o r i e n t e d w ere fo u n d t o d i f f e r e n t i a t e
w ith r e l a t i v e c o n s i s t e n c y b e tw e e n p a i r s o f
s u b j e c t m a t t e r a r e a s w hich w ere p r e d o m i n a n t l y
v e r b a l .
The f i n d i n g s f o r J u n i o r C o lle g e "A" a r e r e p o r t e d i n
T a b le s XX th r o u g h XXIX. The I n f o r m a t i o n 13 o r g a n i z e d so
t h a t a l l m a t e r i a l r e l a t i n g t o a g iv e n c r i t e r i o n a p p e a r s
in a s e p a r a t e t a b l e .
I I . MULTIPLE CORRELATIONS BETWEEN VARIOUS
COMBINATIONS OP TWO OR MORE PREDICTORS
AND SIX CRITERIA
In t h e p r e c e d i n g s e c t i o n w here c o n s i d e r a t i o n was
l i m i t e d t o c o r r e l a t i o n s b a s e d on two v a r i a b l e s , t h i r t e e n
p r e d i c t o r s w ere fo u n d t o c o r r e l a t e s i g n i f i c a n t l y tw e n ty -
f o u r tim e s w ith n i n e c r i t e r i a . E x c e p t f o r two o f t h e s e
c r i t e r i a , i . e . , C om m unicative A r t s - F in e A r t s and
P h y s i c a l S c i e n c e s - M a th e m a tic s , a l l w ere p r e d i c t e d
118
TABLE XX.—Junior C o lleg e "A": Pearson c o r r e la tio n s 'between s in g le
p r e d ic to r s and d iffe r e n c e s in grade p o in t averages f o r cou rses in
the S o c ia l S tu d ies and th e Communicative A rts (if, 308)
P r e d ic to r r SE C R E 100r2
1
.1 9 ^ .055
3.474 I . 98O 3.920
2
.17? .055
3.000
1.1*71
2.924
5
*131a
.056 2.298 .864 1.716
l+ .128 .056 2.246 .823 1.638
6 .I20a .056 2.105 .723
l.44o
L .080
.057
i.4o4 .321 .64o
3 -.077 .057 1.351 .295 .593
S ci .069 .057
1.211 .240 .476
Eng
-.053 .057
.930 .l4o .281
8 .050
.057 .877 .125
.250
9
.050
.057 .877 .125
.250
PL -.048
.057
.842
.115
.230
0 -.046
.057 .807 .105
.212
Math .042
.057 • 737
.090 .176
7
.o4o
.057
.702 .080 .160
SB -.0 0 6
.057 .105
.000 .004
^Significant at the fiv e per cent le v el of confidence.
Significant at the one per cent le v e l of confidence.
119
TABLE XXI.—J u n io r C o lleg e "A": Pearson c o r r e la tio n s "between s in g le
p r e d ic to r s and d iffe r e n c e s In grade p o in t averages f o r co u rses in
the S o c ia l S tu d ies and the P h y sic a l S cien ces (N, 113)
P r e d ic to r r SE C R E 100r2
L .160 .091 1.702 1.288 2.560
5 .107 .093 1.138
.577
1.145
1 + -.094 .093
1.000 .441 .884
2
-.075 .093 .798 .280
.563
7 .075 .093 .798 .280
.563
6 .066
.093
.702
.215
.432
Eng
.066
.093
.702
.215
.432
1 .064
.093
.681 .205 .410
3 .057 .093
.606
.165 .325
8
.057 .093
.606 .165 .325
SS .050
.093 .532 .125
.250
Q . -.046
.093 .489
.105
.212
Math -.034
.094 .362 .060 .116
9 .032
.094 .340 .050 .102
FL .016 .094 .170 .015 .026
Sci -.0 0 5
.094
.053
.000 .003
120
TABU5 X X II.—Ju n ior C o lleg e "A” : Pearson c o r r e la tio n s betw een s in g le
p r e d ic to r s and d iffe r e n c e s In grade p o in t averages f o r co u rses In
the S o c ia l S tu d ies and the F in e A rts (N, 115)
P r e d ic to r r SE CR E 100r2
L .205® .090 2.181
2.123 4.201
5
.192 .090 2.043 1.862 3.686
ss .182 .091 1.936 1.669 3.312
7 .167
.091
1.777
1.405
2.789
9 .153
.092 1.628
1.177
2.34i
0.
.137
.092
1.457 .945 1.877
FL .112 .092
1.191
.627 1.254
Eng .100
.093
1.064 .501 1.000
8 .100
.093
1.064 .501 1.000
4
.099 .093 1.053
.491 .980
6
.093 .093 .989
.436 .865
S ci -.0 8 8
.093 .936 .386 .774
Math -.0 5 8
.093 .617 .170 .336
1 .052
.093 .553 .135
.270
2 .046
.093
.489 .105 .212
3 -.0 0 7
.094 .074 .005 .005
£
Significant at the fiv e per cent le v e l of confidence.
121
TABLE X X III.—J u n io r C ollege "A": Pearson c o rre la tio n s between
sin g le p re d ic to rs and d iffe re n c e s In grade p o in t averages f o r courses
In th e Communicative A rts and th e P h y sical Sciences (if, 112)
P re d ic to r r SE C R E 100r2
5
*338a
.084 3.558 5.883
11.424
1 .212 .091
2.232 2.271 4.494
2 -.174 .092 1.832
1.527
3.028
Math -.1 6 2 .092
1.705 1.319
2.624
Eng .150
.093 1.579 1.131
2.250
FL
.131 .093 1.379
.864 1.716
4 -.1 2 1 .093
1.274
.733
1.464
3 -.113
.094 I . I 89 .642
1.277
Scl -.1 0 1 .094 I.O63 .511
1.020
8 .056
.095 .589 .155 .314
9
-.0 3 2
.095 .337
.050 .102
L .029
.095 .305
.o4o .084
SS .019 .095
.200 .020 .036
7 .013 .095 .137
.010 .017
6 -.007 .095
.074
.005
.005
0. -.0 0 2
.095
.021 .000 .000
*Slgnifleant at the fiv e per cent le v e l of confidence.
Significant at the one per cent le v e l of confidence.
122
TABLE XXIV.—J u n io r C ollege "A": Pearson c o rr e la tio n s 'between
sin g le p re d ic to rs and d iffe re n c e s in grade p o in t av erag es f o r c o u rses
in th e Communicative A rts and th e F in e A rts (H, 109)
P re d ic to r r SE CR E 100r2
ss .203 .092 2.115 2.082 1+.121
ft .187
.093 1.9^8
1.766
3.1+97
FL .170 .093 1.771
1 . 1+56 2.890
L .162 ..09I+
1.688
1.319
2 . 621+
Eng . 11+ 8 . 09I+ l.5l*2 1.101 2.190
9 ■ .11+5 .091+ 1.510 1.056
2.103
5 .129 .095 1.31 * 1 *
. 831+ 1.661+
Sci .122
.095 1.271 . 71*8 1 . 1+88
Math - . 101+
.095 1.083 . 51*2 1.082
8 .096
.095
1 .0 0 0 . 1+61 .922
7 .095 .095 .990 .**51
.901
1 -.0 8 8
.095 .917
.386
• 771 *
3 .067 .096 .698 . .225 . 1 + 1 + 9
2
-.063 .096 .656 .200
.397
1 +
.031+ .096
.351*
.060 .116
6
.019 .096 .198 .020 .036
aSignifleant at the fiv e per cent le v el of confidence.
123
TABLE XXV.—Ju n ior C ollege "A": Pearson c o r r e la tio n s between s in g le
p r e d ic to r s and d iffe r e n c e s In grade p o in t averages f o r courses in
the S o c ia l S tu d ies and the M athematics (9 , 100)
P red ic to r r SE C R E
2
lOOr
8 . 286?
. 266?
.0 9 2 2 .8 3 2
4.177
8 .1 8 0
6
.093
2 .6 3 4
3.605 7 .0 7 6
L
.2 5 7 !
.094
2.545
3.362
6 .6 0 5
7
.211* .096 2 .1 1 9 2.317
4 .5 8 0
2 .181
.0 9 7 1.7 9 2
1.654 3 .2 7 6
Sci .172
.097 1.703
1 .4 9 1 2 .9 5 8
1 .148 .098 1.465
1 .1 0 1 2 .1 9 0
3
.146 .098 1.446 1 .0 7 1
2 .1 3 2
Math -.1 2 4
.099
1.228
.773 1.537
ft
-.1 1 5 • 099 1.139
.662
1 .3 2 3
Eng
-.0 7 9
.100 .782
.311
.624
PL - .0 6 0 .100
.59^
.1 8 0 .360
5 .055
.100 .545
.1 5 0
.303
SS -.0 4 7 .100 .465 .110 .221
4 .0 3 2 .1 0 0
.317
.050 .102
9 -.0 2 5 .100 .248 .030 .063
^Significant at the fiv e per cent lev el of confidence.
Significant at the one per cent lev el of confidence.
124
TABLE XXVI.—J u n io r C ollege "A": P earson c o r r e la tio n s betw een
s in g le p r e d ic to r s and d iff e r e n c e s in grade p o in t av erag e s f o r c o u rses
in th e S o c ia l S tu d ie s and th e F o re ig n Languages (if, $2)
P r e d ic to r r SE CR E 100r2
2
.295? .0 9 5
2 .8 1 0 4 .4 4 9
8 .7 0 3
Q
.2 8 8 .0 9 6
2 .7^ 3 4 .2 3 5
8 .2 9 4
k . 265* .0 9 7 2.521+ 3 .5 7 4 7 .0 2 3
1
.239
.0 9 8 2 .2 7 6 2 .8 9 7 5 .7 1 2
SS .204 .100
1.9^ 3
2 .1 0 2 4 .1 6 2
6
.203
.100
1 .9 3 3
2 .0 8 2 4 .1 2 1
9
.2 0 2 .1 0 0 1 .9 2 4 2 .0 6 1 4 .0 8 0
5
.198 .100 1 .8 8 6 1 .9 8 0 3 .9 2 0
L .130 .102 1 .2 3 8 .849 1 .6 9 0
7 .095 .1 0 3 .905 .451 .9 0 3
FL
-.0 8 3
.io4 .790 .346 .6 8 9
8 .074 .101+
.705 .275
.548
S ci .0 4 7 .101+ .448 .1 1 0 .221
Eng .0 1 9 .101+ .1 8 1 .020 .0 3 6
3 - .0 1 7 . 101+ .1 6 2 .015 .0 2 9
Math .0 0 8 .101+ .0 7 6 .005 .0 0 6
®Signifleant a t the fiv e per cent le v e l of confidence.
Significant a t the one per cent le v e l of confidence.
125
TABLE XXVII.—Ju n ior C ollege "A": Pearson c o r r e la tio n s between
s in g le p r e d ic to r s and d iffe r e n c e s In grade p o in t averages f o r cou rses
in the Communicative A rts and the Foreign Languages (N, 67)
P red icto r r SE C R E 100r2
Q . 29^ .099
2 .7 2 2 4.4 1 8 8.6 4 4
2 .241 .102 2.2 3 1
2 .9 4 9 5 .8 0 8
L .211 .103 1.95^
2 .2 5 0 4 .4 5 2
S ci .208 .103 1.926 2 .1 8 9 4.3 2 6
6 .2 0 3 .103 1 .8 8 0 2 .0 8 2 4 .1 2 1
7
.189 .104 1.7 5 0 1 .8 0 1 3.572
FL - .1 8 2 .104 1 .6 8 5 1 .6 6 9 3.312
9
..1 8 0 .104 I .6 6 7
1 .6 3 3
3.240
Math
-.1 7 7
.104
1.639 1.5 7 7 3.133
5
.161
.105
1.491 1.304 2.5 9 2
4 .156 .105 1 .4 4 4
1.2 2 3
2.4 3 4
8 .127
.106 1 .1 7 6 .808 1.6 1 3
3
.116 .106 1 .0 7 4
.677
1 . 3^6
1
.099 .107 .917
.491 .9 8 0
Eng .068
.107 .6 3 0 .2 3 0 .462
SS .015
.108
.139
.0 1 0 .023
fjsignif leant at the fiv e per cent le v e l of confidence.
Significant at the one per cent le v e l of confidence.
126
TABLE XXVIII.—Ju n ior C ollege "A": Pearson c o r r e la tio n s between
s in g le p r ed icto r s and d iffe r e n c e s in grade p o in t averages fo r courses
in the Communicative A rts and the Mathematics (N, 8 5 )
P re d ic to r r SE C R E 100r2
9
"*283a
.100
2.596
4.089 8.009
4 -.2 6 1 .102
2.39^
3.465 6.812
Math - . 2l4a .104
1.963 2.317
4.580
Eng -.1 6 8 .106 1.541 1.420 2.822
Q -.134 .107 1.229
.904 1.796
SS
-.131 .107 1.202 .864 1.716
Sci -.105
.108
.963 .552 1.103
1 -.101 .108
.927 .511
1.020
2 - . 09U .108 .862 .441 .884
8 .081 .108
.743 .331
.656
6 .080 .108 .734 .320 .64o
3
-.038 .109 .349
.070 .144
FL -.038 .109
.349
.070 .144
T .037 .109 .339
.070
.137
5
-.021 .109 .193
.020 .044
L
.009 .109 .083 .005
.008
^Significant at the fiv e per cent lev el of confidence.
Significant at the one per cent le v el of confidence.
127
TABLE XXIX.—Ju n ior C o lleg e "A": Pearson c o r r e la tio n s "between
s in g le p r e d ic to r s and d iffe r e n c e s In grade p o in t averages f o r cou rses
in th e P h y sica l S cien ces and the M athematics (if, 80)
P r e d ic to r r SE CR E
2
lOOr
Eng
-.3 2 3
.101 2 .8 5 8
5.359 1 0 . 1*33
8 .196 .1 0 8
1.735 1.939
3.81*2
s s - .1 6 8 .109 1.1*87 1.1*20 2 .8 2 2
FL -.1 6 5 .109 1 . 1*60
1 .3 6 9 2 .7 2 3
5 .159
.110 1.1*07 1 .2 7 3
2 .5 2 8
6 .ll*6 .110 1 .2 9 2
1 .0 7 1
2 .1 3 2
Math - .0 9 1 .112 .805 . 1*16 .8 2 8
9
- ,086 .112 .761
.371
.7^0
2 .0 7 2 .112
.637
.2 6 0 .5 1 8
1 + - .0 5 8 .112
.513
.170 .336
L
.057
.112 .501* .165 .325
3
- .0 5 6 .112 .1*96
.155 .311*
1 .0 5 2 .112 . 1*60
.135
.2 7 0
7
.oi*3 .112 .381 .095
.1 8 5
Q .0 0 9
.113
.0 8 0 .005 .0 0 8
S ci
L T \
O
O
•
1
.113
. 01* 1 * .000
.0 0 3
Significant at the one per cent le v e l of confidence.
128
s i g n i f i c a n t l y two o r more t i m e s . T h is I n f o r m a t i o n was
p r e r e q u i s i t e t o more e f f i c i e n t p r e d i c t i o n th ro u g h
m u l t i p l e c o r r e l a t i o n .
A l l c o e f f i c i e n t s o f m u l t i p l e c o r r e l a t i o n w ere
e s t i m a t e d by t h e W h e r r y - D o o l l t t l e T e s t S e l e c t i o n Method
(10: 435- 451, 11:447- 448). T h is m ethod p r o v i d e d a means
o f s e l e c t i n g f o r e a c h c r i t e r i o n t h a t b a t t e r y o f
p r e d i c t o r s w hich c o l l e c t i v e l y would y i e l d t h e maximum
c o r r e l a t i o n w ith i t . P r e d i c t o r s w ere s e l e c t e d
s y s t e m a t i c a l l y one a t a tim e in te rm s o f t h a t p r e d i c t o r ,
among t h o s e a s y e t u n u s e d , w hich w ould p ro d u c e th e
l a r g e s t in c r e m e n t i n t h e c o e f f i c i e n t . A s h r i n k a g e
f o r m u la was a p p l i e d w ith t h e a d d i t i o n o f eac h new
p r e d i c t o r . When, i n a d d in g a n o t h e r p r e d i c t o r , th e
c o e f f i c i e n t no l o n g e r i n c r e a s e d , t h e maximum e s t i m a t e d
c o r r e l a t i o n was a c h i e v e d . Upon r e a c h i n g t h i s p o i n t , th e
c h an c e e r r o r i n t r o d u c e d w ith t h e a d d i t i o n o f a new
p r e d i c t o r e x c e e d e d th e in c r e m e n t i n th e c o r r e l a t i o n which
th e p r e d i c t o r w ould have p r o v i d e d . C a l c u l a t i o n s w ere
t h e n t e r m i n a t e d f o r t h a t c r i t e r i o n .
W ith one e x c e p t i o n , eac h c o e f f i c i e n t o f m u l t i p l e
c o r r e l a t i o n was a s l a r g e o r l a r g e r th a n any o f t h e P e a rs o n
c o e f f i c i e n t s b e tw ee n s i n g l e p r e d i c t o r s and t h e same
c r i t e r i o n . The lo n e e x c e p t i o n i n v o lv e d t h e C om m unicative
A r t s - P h y s i c a l S c i e n c e s c r i t e r i o n . In t h i s c a s e , th e
129
am ount o f c h a n c e e r r o r I n t r o d u c e d when t h e b e s t p r e d i c t i v e
twosome was a s s e m b le d o v e r b a l a n c e d t h e i n c r e a s e i n
p r e d i c t i v e e f f i c i e n c y w hich w ould o t h e r w i s e h a v e b een
a c h i e v e d . F o r t h i s r e a s o n t h e C o m m unicativ e A r t s -
P h y s i c a l S c i e n c e s c r i t e r i o n wa3 rem oved fro m f u r t h e r
c o n s i d e r a t i o n .
F o u r n o t a t i o n s w ere made when t h e m a t e r i a l
c o n c e r n i n g m u l t i p l e c o r r e l a t i o n f o r J u n i o r C o l le g e "A"
was r e v ie w e d .
1. The im p ro v em en t i n p r e d i c t i v e e f f i c i e n c y
a c h i e v e d by t h e m u l t i p l e c o r r e l a t i o n s o v e r t h a t
p r o v i d e d by t h e b e s t P e a rs o n c o r r e l a t i o n s f o r
t h e same c r i t e r i a was s m a l l . D i f f e r e n c e s
b e tw e e n I n d i c e s o f F o r e c a s t i n g E f f i c i e n c y
b a s e d on m u l t i p l e c o r r e l a t i o n s and t h o s e b a s e d
on t h e b e s t P e a rs o n c o r r e l a t i o n s f o r
c o r r e s p o n d i n g c r i t e r i a v a r i e d from .000 t o 1 .2 0 1
w ith a mean v a l u e o f .4 6 7 . A c o m p le te r e p o r t
o f t h e s e d i f f e r e n c e s i s a v a i l a b l e In T a b le XXX.
2 . The am ount o f v a r i a n c e w hich c o u ld b e a c c o u n te d
f o r In t h e c r i t e r i a b y t h e r e s p e c t i v e b a t t e r i e s
o f p r e d i c t o r s r e p r e s e n t e d l i t t l e Im provem ent
o v e r t h a t p r o v i d e d by t h e b e s t P e a rs o n
c o r r e l a t i o n s . C o e f f i c i e n t s o f M u l t i p l e
130
TABLE XXX*— The in c r e a se in p r e d ic tiv e e f f ic ie n c y ach iev ed by each
Index o f F o r ec a stin g E ffic ie n c y based on a m u ltip le c o e f f ic ie n t o f
c o r r e la tio n when the la r g e s t Index o f F o r e c a stin g E ffic ie n c y f o r the
same c r it e r io n based on a tw o -v a ria b le c o e f f ic ie n t o f c o r r e la tio n
was su b tra cted from i t
C riter io n In crea se
S o c ia l S tu d ies - Communicative A rts .000
S o c ia l S tu d ies - F ine A rts .5 1 2
S o c ia l S tu d ies - Mathematics .0 5 8
S o c ia l S tu d ies - Foreign Languages .841
Communicative A rts - F oreign Languages .188
Communicative A rts - Mathematics 1 .2 0 1
D e t e r m i n a t i o n w ere o n l y a s l i g h t am ount l a r g e r
t h a n t h e C o e f f i c i e n t s o f D e t e r m i n a t i o n
p r e v i o u s l y r e p o r t e d f o r two v a r i a b l e r e l a t i o n
s h i p s b e tw e e n t h e b e s t s i n g l e p r e d i c t o r s and
th e same c r i t e r i a . D i f f e r e n c e s b e tw e e n e a c h
M u l t i p l e C o e f f i c i e n t o f D e t e r m i n a t i o n and t h e
b e s t two v a r i a b l e C o e f f i c i e n t o f D e t e r m i n a t i o n
f o r th e same c r i t e r i o n , s t a t e d a s p e r c e n t a g e s ,
v a r i e d from .000 t o 2 .2 9 5 w i t h a mean v a l u e o f
.8 9 4 . T a b le XXXI c o n t a i n s a r e p o r t o f t h e s e
d i f f e r e n c e s .
Two o f t h e s i x c o e f f i c i e n t s d i d n o t b e n e f i t th e
s t u d y . The f i r s t , I n v o l v i n g t h e c o r r e l a t i o n
f o r w h ic h d i f f e r e n c e s b e tw e e n S o c i a l S t u d i e s
and C om m unicative A r t s g r a d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s
was th e c r i t e r i o n , showed no Im provem ent w i t h
th e a d d i t i o n o f p r e d i c t o r " 2 " o v e r t h a t a l r e a d y
p r o v i d e d by th e f i r s t p r e d i c t o r u n a i d e d , I . e . ,
p r e d i c t o r " 1 ." The s e c o n d , i n v o l v i n g th e
c o r r e l a t i o n f o r w h ic h d i f f e r e n c e s b e tw e e n
S o c i a l S t u d i e s and F in e A r t s g r a d e p o i n t
a v e r a g e s was t h e c r i t e r i o n , f a i l e d t o a c h i e v e
s i g n i f i c a n c e a t t h e f i v e p e r c e n t l e v e l o f
c o n f i d e n c e . B o th w ere d ro p p e d from f u r t h e r
c o n s i d e r a t i o n .
132
TABLE XXXI.—The in c r e a se a ch iev ed hy each C o e ffic ie n t o f M u ltip le
D eterm ination s ta te d a s a p ercen tage over the la r g e s t C o e ffic ie n t o f
D eterm ination fo r the same c r it e r io n s ta te d as a percentage
(100R2 - lOOr2 )
C r ite r io n In crease
S o c ia l S tu d ies - Communicative A rts .000
S o c ia l S tu d ies - F ine A rts
.997
S o c ia l S tu d ies - Mathematics .llU
S o c ia l S tu d ies - F oreign Languages 1.601
Communicative A rts - F oreign Languages .356
Communicative A rts - M athematics
2.295
133
4 . P r e d i c t o r s "Q" a n d " 2 , " b o t h g e n e r a l l y r e g a r d e d
a s n o n - l i n g u i s t i c v a r i a b l e s , p r o v i d e d t h e b e B t
p r e d i c t i v e c o m b i n a t i o n i n two o f t h e f o u r
r e m a i n i n g m u l t i p l e c o r r e l a t i o n s . I n b o t h c a s e s ,
t h e F o r e i g n L a n g u a g e s s u b j e c t m a t t e r a r e a was
a member o f t h e c r i t e r i o n p a i r i n g s a n d t h e
d i r e c t i o n s o f t h e d i f f e r e n t i a t i o n s w e re s u c h
t h a t low v a l u e s on t h e p r e d i c t i v e b a t t e r i e s
w ere a s s o c i a t e d w i t h d i f f e r e n c e s i n w h ic h g r a d e
p o i n t a v e r a g e s f o r t h e F o r e i g n L a n g u a g e s
s u b j e c t m a t t e r a r e a e x c e e d e d g r a d e p o i n t
a v e r a g e s f o r t h e two o p p o s i n g s u b j e c t m a t t e r
a r e a s , b o t h o f w h ic h w ere l i k e w i s e l i n g u i s t i c
i n c o n t e n t .
A f u l l r e p o r t o f t h e f i n d i n g s i n m u l t i p l e p r e d i c t i o n
f o r J u n i o r C o l l e g e "A" i s c o n t a i n e d i n T a b le XXXII.
I I I . BETA WEIGHTS AND MULTIPLE
REGRESSION EQUATIONS
I n t h e p r e c e d i n g s e c t i o n , f i v e c o e f f i c i e n t s o f
m u l t i p l e c o r r e l a t i o n w e re fo u n d t o be s i g n i f i c a n t . One o f
t h e s e , h o w e v e r, was g i v e n no f u r t h e r c o n s i d e r a t i o n
b e c a u s e t h e a d d i t i o n o f a s e c o n d p r e d i c t o r f o r t h a t
TA B LE XXXII.—Ju n io r College "A": M ultiple c o e ffic ie n ts of c o rre la tio n between two o r more p re d ic to rs
and d iffe re n c e s in grade p o in t averages
D ifferences P re d icto rs R
l < ? E e s tR
SEr E 100R2
Social Studies - Communicative Arts
1, 2 .198* 4.577
.142 1.980 3.920
Social Studies - Fine Arts L, SS .228 5.902 .232
2.635 5.198
Social Studies - Mathematics 8 , 6 . 288*
5.873
.240 4.235
8.294
Social Studies - Foreign Languages 2, 0 .32la 5.512 .245 5.290 10.304
C om m u n ., Arts - Foreign languages 0, 2 . 300* 5.228
.255
4.606 9.000
C a m m u n ,, Arts - Mathematics 9, 4 , M ath -.321*
4.877
.258 5.290 10.304
^ S ig n ific a n t a t the fiv e p er cent le v e l of confidence.
S ig n ific a n t a t the one per cent le v e l of confidence.
135
c r i t e r i o n a c h i e v e d n o Im p ro v e m e n t I n t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p
a l r e a d y known t o e x i s t b e tw e e n t h e f i r s t p r e d i c t o r and
t h e c r i t e r i o n .
B e t a w e i g h t s f o r a l l p r e d i c t o r s o f t h e f o u r
r e m a i n i n g m u l t i p l e c o r r e l a t i o n s w e re t h e n c o m p u te d . An
e x t e n s i o n o f t h e W h e r r y - D o o l i t t l e T e s t S e l e c t i o n M ethod
was u s e d f o r t h i s p u r p o s e , and t h e r e s u l t i n g w e i g h t s
w e re s t a t e d i n s t a n d a r d s c o r e f o r m . A l l w e i g h t s a r e
g i v e n i n T a b l e X X X III.
The b e t a w e i g h t s w e re u s e f u l i n two w a y s . F i r s t ,
t h e y made p o s s i b l e t h e c o n s t r u c t i o n o f m u l t i p l e
r e g r e s s i o n e q u a t i o n s by w h ic h p r e d i c t i o n s o f d i f f e r e n c e s
I n g r a d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s c o u l d b e made f o r I n d i v i d u a l
s t u d e n t s . The f o u r e q u a t i o n s w e re :
F o r d i f f e r e n c e s In S o c i a l S t u d i e s - M a th e m a tic s
g r a d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s ,
z - . 1 9 6 zg + .1 3 5 z g
F o r d i f f e r e n c e s I n S o c i a l S t u d i e s - F o r e i g n
L a n g u a g e s g r a d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s ,
"z - . 2OOZ2 + . i 8 6 z q
136
TABLE XX X III.—J u n io r C ollege "A": B eta w eig h ts f o r th e re s p e c tiv e
p r e d ic to r s In fo u r m u ltip le re g re s s io n e q u a tio n s in v o lv in g c r i t e r i a
based on d if f e r e n c e s in grade p o in t a v erag e s
C r i t e r i a P re d ic to rs B eta W eights
S o c ia l S tu d ie s - M athem atics 8 .196
6
.135
S o c ia l S tu d ie s - F o re ig n Languages 2 .200
0. .186
Commun. A rts - F o re ig n Languages 0.
.233
2
.137
Commun. A rts - M athem atics
9
-.200
Math
-.159
1 + -.1 2 8
137
F o r d i f f e r e n c e s i n C om m unicative A r t s - F o r e i g n
L ang uages g r a d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s ,
z - ,2 3 3 zq + .13 7^2
F o r d i f f e r e n c e s i n C om m unicative A r t s - M a th e m a tic s
g r a d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s ,
z - - . 20 0 zg - . 1 5 9 z M a t h ~ *12824
Second, t h e y s e r v e d a s a b a s i s f o r d e t e r m i n i n g th e
r e l a t i v e c o n t r i b u t i o n s o f th e in d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e s t o
t h e i r r e s p e c t i v e c r i t e r i a . The r a t i o b e tw e e n v a r i a b l e s
"8 " and "6 " p r e d i c t i n g d i f f e r e n c e s i n S o c i a l S t u d i e s -
M a th e m a tic s g ra d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s was 1 .4 5 : 1 .0 0 ; f o r
v a r i a b l e s "2" and "QM p r e d i c t i n g d i f f e r e n c e s i n S o c i a l
S t u d i e s - F o r e i g n L anguages g r a d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s ,
1 .0 8 : 1 . 0 0 ; f o r v a r i a b l e s "Q" and n2 n p r e d i c t i n g
d i f f e r e n c e s i n C om m unicative A r ts - F o r e i g n L anguages
g ra d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s , I .6 9 : 1 . 0 0 ; a n d , f o r v a r i a b l e s
" 9 ," " M a th ,” and " 4 M p r e d i c t i n g d i f f e r e n c e s i n
C om m unicative A r t s - M a th e m a tic s g r a d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s ,
1 .5 6 : 1 .2 4 : 1 . 0 0 .
IV. SUMMARY
C h a p te r VI was d i v i d e d i n t o t h r e e s e c t i o n s . The
f i r s t was c o n c e rn e d w i t h t w o - v a r i a b l e r e l a t i o n s h i p s
b e tw e e n a s i n g l e p r e d i c t o r and a c r i t e r i o n , th e second
138
w ith m u l t i - v a r i a b l e r e l a t i o n s h i p s b etw een two o r more
p r e d i c t o r s and a c r i t e r i o n , and t h e t h i r d w ith b e t a
w e ig h ts and m u l t i p l e r e g r e s s i o n e q u a t i o n s .
W ith r e g a r d t o s e c t i o n o n e , t h i r t e e n p r e d i c t o r s
w ere found t o c o r r e l a t e s i g n i f i c a n t l y t w e n t y - f o u r tim e s
w ith n in e c r i t e r i a . The t w e n t y - f o u r c o r r e l a t i o n s v a r i e d
from .120 t o .3 3 8 , had a mean v a lu e o f . 23^ , and were
i n t e r p r e t e d in two w ays, i . e . , by means o f t h e i r I n d i c e s
o f F o r e c a s t i n g E f f i c i e n c y and by means o f t h e i r
C o e f f i c i e n t s o f D e t e r m in a t io n .
In s e c t i o n tw o, s i x c o e f f i c i e n t s o f m u l t i p l e
c o r r e l a t i o n were r e p o r t e d . However, two w ere l a t e r
d i s c a r d e d , one b e c a u s e I t f a i l e d t o m eet th e f i v e p e r
c e n t l e v e l o f c o n f id e n c e and t h e o t h e r b e c a u s e i t
rem a in e d s t a t i c a t th e same v a lu e a s t h e t w o - v a r i a b l e
c o r r e l a t i o n betw een th e f i r s t p r e d i c t o r and th e c r i t e r i o n
a f t e r th e second p r e d i c t o r had been a d d e d . The f o u r
m u l t i p l e c o r r e l a t i o n s ra n g e d from .288 t o .321 and
g e n e r a l l y o f f e r e d v e ry l i t t l e im provem ent o v e r th e
c o e f f i c i e n t s r e p o r t e d in s e c t i o n one betw een th e b e s t
s i n g l e p r e d i c t o r s and t h e same c r i t e r i a . I n t e r p r e t a t i o n s
were l i k e w i s e made by I n d i c e s o f F o r e c a s t i n g E f f i c i e n c y
and by C o e f f i c i e n t s o f M u l t ip l e D e t e r m in a t io n .
In s e c t i o n t h r e e , n i n e b e t a w e i g h ts w ere p r e s e n t e d
a n d , i n t u r n , t h e f o u r m u l t i p l e r e g r e s s i o n e q u a t i o n s to
w hich t h e y c o n t r i b u t e d w ere s t a t e d i n s t a n d a r d s c o r e
fo rm . An i n t e r p r e t a t i o n was made f o r eac h b e t a w e ig h t
i n te rm s o f i t s r e l a t i v e c o n t r i b u t i o n to t h e c r i t e r i o n
w i t h w hich i t was a s s o c i a t e d .
CHAPTER VII
A REPORT OP THE FINDINGS IN DIFFERENTIAL
SCHOLASTIC PREDICTION FOR THE SAMPLE
FROM JUNIOR COLLEGE ,1 B"
The f i n d i n g s in d i f f e r e n t i a l s c h o l a s t i c p r e d i c t i o n
f o r t h e sam ple o f 640 s t u d e n t s from J u n i o r C o lle g e "Bm
a r e p r e s e n t e d i n t h i s c h a p t e r . L ik e C h a p te r V I, i t i 3
o r g a n i z e d i n t h r e e s e c t i o n s . The f i r s t c o n t a i n s a r e p o r t
and i n t e r p r e t a t i o n o f c o r r e l a t i o n s b e tw ee n each c r i t e r i o n
and each o f th e s i x t e e n p r e d i c t o r s . The seco nd c o n t a i n s
a r e p o r t and i n t e r p r e t a t i o n o f m u l t i p l e c o r r e l a t i o n s
b e tw e e n each c r i t e r i o n and t h e b e s t c o m b in a tio n o f t h o s e
p r e d i c t o r s w hich had c o r r e l a t e d w ith i t s i g n i f i c a n t l y
on a t w o - v a r i a b l e b a s i s . F i n a l l y , th e t h i r d c o n t a i n s a
r e p o r t and i n t e r p r e t a t i o n o f b e t a w e ig h ts t o g e t h e r w ith
th e r e s u l t i n g m u l t i p l e r e g r e s s i o n e q u a t i o n s .
A b b r e v i a t i o n s u s e d i n t h e t a b l e s and t e x t o f C h a p te r V I
a r e a p p l i c a b l e t o t h i s c h a p t e r a s w e l l .
141
I . PEARSON CORRELATIONS BETWEEN SINGLE
PREDICTORS AND EACH CRITERION
The s tu d y o f d i f f e r e n t i a l s c h o l a s t i c p r e d i c t i o n was
begun by a s c e r t a i n i n g t h e s t r e n g t h and d i r e c t i o n o f th e
r e l a t i o n s h l p ~ b e t w e e n eac h o f th e s i x t e e n p r e d i c t o r s and
eac h o f th e tw e lv e c r i t e r i a . P e a rs o n produ ct-m om ent
c o e f f i c i e n t s o f c o r r e l a t i o n w ere u se d f o r t h i s p u r p o s e .
P o s i t i v e and n e g a t i v e c o r r e l a t i o n s w ere g iv e n th e same
I n t e r p r e t a t i o n s a s w ere t h o s e in t h e p r e c e d i n g c h a p t e r .
By s i z e , th e c o e f f i c i e n t s were g e n e r a l l y s m a ll.
T h is f a c t i s c l e a r l y i l l u s t r a t e d i n T a b le XXXIV w here th e
192 c o e f f i c i e n t s have been d i s t r i b u t e d , w i t h o u t r e g a r d
f o r s i g n s , i n t e n i n t e r v a l s o f .050 r a n g i n g from .000 to
.450 and a b o v e. T w e n ty - f iv e p e r c e n t were below . 0 5 8 ,
f i f t y p e r c e n t below . 11 6 , s e v e n t y - f i v e p e r c e n t below
.2 1 0 , and n i n e t y - n i n e p e r c e n t b elow .4 0 4 . The mean
v a lu e was . 1 3 9 .
An i n t e g r a l p a r t in th e c a l c u l a t i o n o f th e
c o e f f i c i e n t s was a c h e c k on t h e i r s i g n i f i c a n c e . F o r t h i s
p u rp o s e a n u l l h y p o t h e s i s was d r a f t e d and each c o e f f i c i e n t
was t e s t e d a g a i n 3t i t . From t h e t o t a l o f 192 c o e f f i c i e n t s ,
s i x t y - f o u r w ere foun d t o be s i g n i f i c a n t , f o r t y - o n e a t t h e
one p e r c e n t l e v e l o f c o n f i d e n c e and t w e n t y - t h r e e a t th e
f i v e p e r c e n t l e v e l . When s i g n s w ere d i s r e g a r d e d , th e y
ra n g e d from .100 t o .561 and had a mean v a lu e o f . 2 5 5 .
1 1 + 2
TABLE XXXIV.—D is tr ib u tio n o f the 192 Pearson c o e f f ic ie n t s o f
c o r r e la tio n computed in the study o f d if f e r e n t ia l s c h o la s tic
p r e d ic tio n a t Junior C o lleg e 1 1 B"
.1+50 and above 1
.400 - .449 1
.350 -
.399 5
.300 -
.349
10
.250 -
.299
12
.200 - .249 24
.150 -
■ 199 19
.100 - .149 36
.050 -
.099 43
.000 - .049 4i
T O T A L 192
143
The number o f s i g n i f i c a n t p r e d i c t o r s f o r each c r i t e r i o n
v a r i e d from none i n th e c a s e o f d i f f e r e n c e s betw een
Com m unicative A r ts - M a th em atics t o e le v e n i n th e c a s e o f
d i f f e r e n c e s b e tw ee n S o c i a l S t u d i e s - F o r e ig n L an g u a g e s.
I n t e r p r e t a t i o n s o f th e s i g n i f i c a n t c o e f f i c i e n t s
were made i n two w ays, f i r s t by means o f t h e i r I n d i c e s o f
F o r e c a s t i n g E f f i c i e n c y a n d , se c o n d , by means o f t h e i r
C o e f f i c i e n t s o f D e t e r m in a t io n . I n d i c e s o f F o r e c a s t i n g
E f f i c i e n c y v a r i e d from .501 t o 1 7 .2 1 7 and had a mean
v a lu e o f 3 .6 7 9 . T hu s, th e s i x t y - f o u r c o e f f i c i e n t s were
found to o f f e r a mean d e g re e o f p r e d i c t a b i l i t y aro u n d
t h r e e and a h a l f p e r c e n t in e x c e s s o f c h a n c e .
C o e f f i c i e n t s o f D e te r m in a tio n , c o n v e r te d t o p e r
c e n t s , e x te n d e d from 1.0 0 0 t o 3 1 .4 7 2 and had a mean
v a lu e o f 7 .1 1 2 . H ence, t h e p e r c e n t a g e o f v a r i a n c e
p r e s e n t i n th e p r e d i c t o r s which c o u ld be a s s o c i a t e d w ith
v a r i a n c e i n th e c r i t e r i a a v e ra g e d a t a p p ro x im a te ly seven
p e r c e n t .
The s i g n i f i c a n t c o e f f i c i e n t s were s u b m itte d t o a
th o ro u g h a n a l y s i s . O b s e r v a tio n s c o n c e rn in g p r e d i c t o r -
c r i t e r i o n r e l a t i o n s h i p s w ere made and a r e p r e s e n t e d in
s u b s e q u e n t p a r a g r a p h s . Each p a ra g r a p h b e g in s w ith an
a b b r e v i a t e d i d e n t i f i c a t i o n o f th e p r e d i c t o r and p ro c e e d s
(a) w ith t h e t i t l e s o f th o s e c r i t e r i a w ith w hich i t
c o r r e l a t e d s i g n i f i c a n t l y , (b) w ith th e c o e f f i c i e n t s o f
144
c o r r e l a t i o n b e tw ee n I t and th e c i t e d c r i t e r i a , and (c )
w i t h p e r t i n e n t commentb c o n c e r n in g th e p r e d i c t o r .
P r e d i c t o r
S o c i a l S t u d i e s - Com m unicative ArtB ( r , .100)
P r e d i c t o r M Q ," a t e s t o f s c h o l a s t i c a p t i t u d e i n
s u b j e c t s w hich r e q u i r e th e c o m p re h e n sio n and
a p p l i c a t i o n o f q u a n t i t a t i v e c o n c e p ts , f a i l e d t o
c o r r e l a t e s i g n i f i c a n t l y w i t h any c r i t e r i o n b a se d on
a p a i r i n g w hich i n c l u d e d a q u a n t i t a t i v e B u b je c t
m a t t e r a r e a , i . e . , th e P h y s i c a l S c ie n c e s and
M a th e m a tic s . The one s i g n i f i c a n t b u t weak
c o r r e l a t i o n in v o lv e d a c r i t e r i o n i n w hich th e
s u b j e c t a r e a s b e in g p a i r e d were commonly r e g a r d e d a s
l i n g u i s t i c , n o t q u a n t i t a t i v e . Thus, i n t h i s
i n s t a n c e p r e d i c t o r "Q” was foun d to d i f f e r e n t i a t e
b e s t betw een n o n - q u a n t i t a t i v e a l t e r n a t i v e s .
P r e d i c t o r L:
S o c i a l S t u d i e s - F o r e ig n L anguages ( r , . 361)
S o c i a l S t u d i e s - M a th em atics f r , .321)
Com m unicative A r t s - F o r e ig n L anguages ( r , . 289)
Com m unicative A r ts - F in e A r ts ( r , .235)
S o c i a l S tu d ieB - F in e A r t s ( r , . 230)
P r e d i c t o r " L , " a t e s t o f s c h o l a s t i c a p t i t u d e i n
s u b j e c t s w hich em p h asize v e r b a l u n d e r s t a n d i n g and
e x p r e s s i o n , c o r r e l a t e d s i g n i f i c a n t l y w i t h f i v e
c r i t e r i a , t h r e e o f w hich were b a se d on p a i r i n g s o f a
l i n g u i s t i c s u b j e c t m a t t e r a r e a v e r s u s a n o n -
l i n g u i s t i c s u b j e c t a r e a . I n t h e s e c a s e s , h i g h
s c o r e s on t h e p r e d i c t o r s w ere a s s o c i a t e d w i t h
d i f f e r e n c e s I n w h ic h g r a d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s f o r t h e
l i n g u i s t i c a r e a s e x c e e d e d t h o s e f o r t h e n o n -
l i n g u i s t i c a r e a s . W ith r e g a r d t o t h e r e m a i n i n g
c o r r e l a t i o n s , b o t h i n v o l v e d c r i t e r i a w h ic h w ere
b a s e d on p a i r i n g s o f one l i n g u i s t i c s u b j e c t m a t t e r
a r e a v e r s u s a n o t h e r l i n g u i s t i c s u b j e c t m a t t e r a r e a .
I n e a c h o f t h e s e c r i t e r i a , one o f t h e s u b j e c t m a t t e r
a r e a s was t h e F o r e i g n L a n g u a g e s a r e a and h i g h s c o r e s
o n t h e p r e d i c t o r w ere a s s o c i a t e d w i t h d i f f e r e n c e s i n
w h ic h g r a d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s f o r t h e o p p o s i n g a r e a s
e x c e e d e d t h o s e f o r t h e F o r e i g n L a n g u a g e s a r e a .
P r e d i c t o r 1:
C o m m u n icativ e A r t s
-
P h y s i c a l S c i e n c e s
(r>
- . 3 1 6
S o c i a l S t u d i e s
-
F o r e i g n L a n g u a g e s
.3 0 9
S o c i a l S t u d i e s
-
C o m m u n ic a tiv e A r t s
) r>
.3 0 8
S o c i a l S t u d i e s
-
M a th e m a tic s
>r '
.2 9 8
S o c i a l S t u d i e s
—
F i n e A r t s .2 5 2
S o c i a l S t u d i e s
—
S e c r e t a r i a l S c i e n c e ( r , .2 2 1
P h y s i c a l S c i e n c e s
-
M a th e m a tic s
>r '
.2 1 2
C o m m u n icativ e A r t s
—
F o r e i g n L a n g u a g e s r ,
.1 9 7
C o m m u n ic ativ e A r t s - F i n e A r t s ( r , .1 8 1
P r e d i c t o r " 1 , " a n a c h i e v e m e n t t e s t c o n c e r n e d w i t h
s o c i a l c o n c e p t s , c o r r e l a t e d s i g n i f i c a n t l y w i t h f i v e
o f t h e s e v e n c r i t e r i a i n w h ic h t h e S o c i a l S t u d i e s
s u b j e c t m a t t e r a r e a a p p e a r e d . I n a l l c a s e s , h i g h
s c o r e s o n t h e p r e d i c t o r w ere a s s o c i a t e d w i t h
d i f f e r e n c e s i n w h ic h S o c i a l S t u d i e s g r a d e p o i n t
a v e r a g e s e x c e e d e d g r a d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s i n t h e
o p p o s i n g s u b j e c t m a t t e r a r e a s . P o u r a d d i t i o n a l
o b s e r v a t i o n s w ere made r e g a r d i n g t h e d i r e c t i o n o f
d i f f e r e n c e s i n c r i t e r i a w i t h w h ic h p r e d i c t o r " l "
c o r r e l a t e d s i g n i f i c a n t l y . When v a l u e s o n t h e
p r e d i c t o r w ere h i g h , g r a d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s i n t h e
P h y s i c a l S c i e n c e s a r e a w ere g e n e r a l l y l a r g e r t h a n
g r a d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s i n t h e two o p p o s i n g s u b j e c t
m a t t e r a r e a s ; g r a d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s i n th e
M a t h e m a tic s a r e a w ere g e n e r a l l y s m a l l e r t h a n g r a d e
p o i n t a v e r a g e s i n t h e two o p p o s i n g s u b j e c t m a t t e r
a r e a s ; g r a d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s i n t h e F i n e A r t s a r e a
w ere g e n e r a l l y s m a l l e r t h a n g r a d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s i n
t h e two o p p o s i n g s u b j e c t m a t t e r a r e a s ; a n d , f i n a l l y ,
g r a d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s i n t h e F o r e i g n L a n g u a g e s a r e a
w e re g e n e r a l l y s m a l l e r t h a n g r a d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s i n
t h e two o p p o s i n g s u b j e c t m a t t e r a r e a s . When
c o n s i d e r e d i n te r m s o f t h e c o n s i s t e n t d i r e c t i o n s o f
i t s d i f f e r e n t i a t i o n s a n d t h e m ean r v a l u e o f .2 5 5 f o r
i t s n i n e c o r r e l a t i o n s , t h i s p r e d i c t o r p r o v e d t o be
one o f t h e b e s t when a p p l i e d t o d a t a fro m J u n i o r
C o l l e g e " B . "
147
Predictor 2:
S o c i a l S t u d i e s - M a t h e m a t i c s ( r , .29 4}
S o c i a l S t u d i e s - F o r e i g n L a n g u a g e s ( r , .2 4 2 )
C o m m u n ic a tiv e A r t s - P h y s i c a l S c i e n c e s C r, - . 2 3 9 '
C o m m u n ic a tiv e A r t s - F o r e i g n L a n g u a g e s ( r , ,2 2 o
P h y s i c a l S c i e n c e s - M a t h e m a t i c s ( r , .210*
S o c i a l S t u d i e s - C o m m u n ic a tiv e A r t s ( r , .2 0 8 )
P r e d i c t o r ”2 , " a n a c h i e v e m e n t t e s t c o n c e r n e d w i t h
t h e n a t u r a l s c i e n c e s , c o r r e l a t e d s i g n i f i c a n t l y w i t h
tw o o f t h e t h r e e c r i t e r i a i n w h ic h t h e P h y s i c a l
S c i e n c e s a r e a a p p e a r e d . I n b o t h c a s e s , h i g h s c o r e s
o n t h e p r e d i c t o r w e re a s s o c i a t e d w i t h d i f f e r e n c e s i n
w h ic h g r a d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s f o r t h e P h y s i c a l S c i e n c e s
a r e a e x c e e d e d g r a d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s f o r t h e p a i r e d
s u b j e c t m a t t e r a r e a s . T h u s , s t u d e n t s i n t h e s a m p le
fro m J u n i o r C o l l e g e "B" who d i d w e l l o n p r e d i c t o r
" 2 " w e re l i k e l y t o e a r n h i g h e r g r a d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s
i n t h e P h y s i c a l S c i e n c e s t h a n i n M a t h e m a t i c s a n d t h e
C o m m u n ic a tiv e A r t s . H ig h s c o r e s o n t h e p r e d i c t o r
w e re a l s o a s s o c i a t e d w i t h d i f f e r e n c e s i n w h ic h g r a d e
p o i n t a v e r a g e s i n t h e S o c i a l S t u d i e s a r e a e x c e e d e d
g r a d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s i n t h e t h r e e p a i r e d a r e a s ; i n
w h ic h g r a d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s i n t h e tw o p a i r e d a r e a s
e x c e e d e d g r a d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s i n t h e F o r e i g n
L a n g u a g e s a r e a ; i n w h ic h g r a d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s i n
tw o o f t h e t h r e e p a i r e d a r e a s e x c e e d e d g r a d e p o i n t
a v e r a g e s i n t h e C o m m u n ic a tiv e A r t s ; a n d i n w h ic h
148
g r a d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s i n t h e two p a i r e d a r e a s
e x c e e d e d g r a d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s i n t h e M a t h e m a t i c s
a r e a .
P r e d i c t o r 3.:
C o m m u n ic a tiv e A r t s - F o r e i g n L a n g u a g e s f r , .2 3 9 )
S o c i a l S t u d i e s - F o r e i g n L a n g u a g e s ( r , .2 3 8 )
S o c i a l S t u d i e s - M a t h e m a t i c s ( r , .2 2 9 )
P r e d i c t o r " 3 , " a n E n g l i s h a c h i e v e m e n t t e s t ,
c o r r e l a t e d s i g n i f i c a n t l y w i t h o n l y one o f t h e f i v e
c r i t e r i a b a s e d on p a i r i n g s i n w h ic h t h e
C o m m u n ic a tiv e A r t s a r e a was a n a l t e r n a t i v e .
D i f f e r e n c e s i n w h ic h g r a d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s i n t h e
C o m m u n ic a tiv e A r t s a r e a e x c e e d e d g r a d e p o i n t
a v e r a g e s i n t h e p a i r e d s u b j e c t m a t t e r a r e a w e re m ore
comm only a s s o c i a t e d w i t h h i g h s c o r e s o n t h e
p r e d i c t o r t h a n w i t h low s c o r e s . H ig h s c o r e s on
p r e d i c t o r " 3 " w e re a l s o a s s o c i a t e d w i t h d i f f e r e n c e s
i n w h ic h g r a d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s i n t h e S o c i a l S t u d i e s
a r e a e x c e e d e d g r a d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s i n t h e two
o p p o s i n g s u b j e c t m a t t e r a r e a s a n d i n w h ic h g r a d e
p o i n t a v e r a g e s i n t h e F o r e i g n L a n g u a g e s a r e a w ere
e x c e e d e d b y g r a d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s i n t h e two o p p o s i n g
s u b j e c t m a t t e r a r e a s .
149
Predictor 4:
S o c i a l S t u d i e s - P h y s i c a l S c i e n c e s ( r , - .3 6 8 )
C o m m u n ic ativ e A r t s - P h y s i c a l S c i e n c e s ( r , - . 2 6 3 )
S o c i a l S t u d i e s - F o r e i g n L a n g u a g e s f r , .2 2 9 )
S o c i a l S t u d i e s - C o m m u n ic a tiv e A r t s ( r , .2 0 5 )
P r e d i c t o r " 4 , ” a m e a s u re o f q u a n t i t a t i v e t h i n k i n g ,
c o r r e l a t e d s i g n i f i c a n t l y w i t h two o f t h e t h r e e
c r i t e r i a i n v o l v i n g t h e P h y s i c a l S c i e n c e s a r e a b u t
w i t h none i n v o l v i n g t h e M a th e m a tic s a r e a . As m ig h t
be e x p e c t e d , h i g h s c o r e s w ere t h e b e t t e r p r e d i c t o r s
o f d i f f e r e n c e s i n w h ic h P h y s i c a l S c i e n c e s g r a d e
p o i n t a v e r a g e s e x c e e d e d g r a d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s i n th e
o p p o s i n g s u b j e c t m a t t e r a r e a s . L ik e p r e d i c t o r s "Q"
a n d "2 , " p r e d i c t o r "4" show ed p r o m is e i n
d i f f e r e n t i a t i n g b e tw e e n n o n - q u a n t i t a t i v e s u b j e c t
m a t t e r a l t e r n a t i v e s . S i g n i f i c a n t c o r r e l a t i o n s
w ere o b t a i n e d w i t h two o f t h e t h r e e c r i t e r i a w h ic h
w ere b a s e d on d i f f e r e n c e s b e tw e e n p a i r s
l i n g u i s t i c s u b j e c t m a t t e r a l t e r n a t i v e s .
P r e d i c t o r 5.:
C o m m u n ic ativ e A r t s - F o r e i g n L a n g u a g e s
S o c i a l S t u d i e s - F o r e i g n L a n g u a g e s
S o c i a l S t u d i e s - M a th e m a tic s
S o c i a l S tu d ie B - F i n e A r t s
C o m m u n ic ativ e A r t s - F i n e A r t s
C o m m u n icativ e A r t s - P h y s i c a l S c i e n c e s
S o c i a l S t u d i e s - C o m m u n ic ativ e A r t s
P r e d i c t o r " 5 , " a m e a s u re o f i n t e r p r e t i v e s k i l l
o f
.370
.3 3 1
.3 1 4 )
.2 7 7
.2 4 4 )
.22l)
.1 4 5 )
r e a d i n g m a t e r i a l s fro m t h e s o c i a l s t u d i e s ,
150
c o r r e l a t e d s i g n i f i c a n t l y w i t h f o u r o f t h e s e v e n
c r i t e r i a b a s e d on p a i r i n g s i n w h ic h t h e S o c i a l
S t u d i e s s u b j e c t m a t t e r a r e a a p p e a r e d . I n a l l f o u r
o f t h e s e c o r r e l a t i o n s , h i g h s c o r e s on t h e p r e d i c t o r
w ere a s s o c i a t e d w i t h d i f f e r e n c e s i n w h ic h g r a d e
p o i n t a v e r a g e s f o r t h e S o c i a l S t u d i e s a r e a e x c e e d e d
g r a d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s f o r t h e p a i r e d s u b j e c t m a t t e r
a r e a s . By c o n t r a s t , d i f f e r e n t i a t i o n s i n w h ic h g r a d e
p o i n t a v e r a g e s f o r e i t h e r t h e F i n e A r t s o r t h e
F o r e i g n L a n g u a g e s a r e a s e x c e e d e d g r a d e p o i n t
a v e r a g e s f o r t h e o p p o s i n g s u b j e c t m a t t e r a r e a s w ere
m ore commonly a s s o c i a t e d w i t h low s c o r e s on t h e
p r e d i c t o r t h a n w i t h h i g h s c o r e s . L ik e p r e d i c t o r "1"
( a n o t h e r t e s t c o n c e r n e d w i t h th e s o c i a l s t u d i e s ) ,
p r e d i c t o r "5 " y i e l d e d a h i g h mean r v a l u e w i t h i t s
s e v e n c r i t e r i a , i . e . , . 2 7 2 , and c o r r e l a t e d
s i g n i f i c a n t l y w i t h m ore t h a n h a l f o f t h e c r i t e r i a i n
w h ic h t h e S o c i a l S t u d i e s a r e a a p p e a r e d .
P r e d i c t o r 6 :
S o c i a l S t u d i e s - F o r e i g n L a n g u a g e s ( r , . 343<
S o c i a l S t u d i e s - M a th e m a tic s ( r , .2 9 0 ,
S o c i a l S t u d i e s - F i n e A r t s ( r , .284^
C o m m u n ic ativ e A r t s - F o r e i g n L a n g u a g e s I r , . 253<
S o c i a l S t u d i e s - P h y s i c a l S c i e n c e s ( r , .1 8 9 ,
C o m m u n ic ativ e A r t s - F i n e A r t s ( r , .178)
S o c i a l S t u d i e s - C o m m u n icativ e A r t s ( r , .1 2 7 ,
P r e d i c t o r " 6 , " a t e s t o f a b i l i t y t o i n t e r p r e t
r e a d i n g m a t e r i a l s fro m t h e n a t u r a l s c i e n c e s ,
151
c o r r e l a t e d s i g n i f i c a n t l y w i t h o n l y o n e c r i t e r i o n
b a s e d on a p a i r i n g i n w h ic h t h e c l o s e s t s u b j e c t
m a t t e r p a r a l l e l a p p e a r e d , i . e . , t h e P h y s i c a l
S c i e n c e s a r e a . In t h i s l o n e i n s t a n c e , t h e l o w e r t h e
s t u d e n t ' s s c o r e on t h e p r e d i c t o r , t h e g r e a t e r w as
t h e c h a n c e t h a t h i s g r a d e p o i n t a v e r a g e i n p h y s i c a l
s c i e n c e c o u r s e s e x c e e d e d h i s g r a d e p o i n t a v e r a g e i n
s o c i a l s t u d i e s c o u r s e s . S i g n i f i c a n t c o r r e l a t i o n s
w e re o b t a i n e d w i t h f i v e o f t h e s e v e n c r i t e r i a i n
w h ic h t h e S o c i a l S t u d i e s a r e a w as a m em ber o f t h e
p a i r i n g s a n d , i n a l l c a s e s , h i g h s c o r e s on t h e
p r e d i c t o r w e r e a s s o c i a t e d w i t h d i f f e r e n c e s i n w h ic h
g r a d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s i n t h e S o c i a l S t u d i e s a r e a
e x c e e d e d g r a d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s i n t h e o p p o s i n g
s u b j e c t m a t t e r a r e a s . When c o m p a r i n g t h e f i n d i n g s
f o r p r e d i c t o r ” 6" w i t h t h o s e f o r p r e d i c t o r "2 "
( a t e s t o f s u b j e c t m a t t e r m a s t e r y I n t h e n a t u r a l
s c i e n c e s ) , tw o p o i n t s I n common w e re n o t e d : B o th
h a d a s i m i l a r r e l a t i o n s h i p t o t h e S o c i a l S t u d i e s
s u b j e c t m a t t e r a r e a a n d b o t h d i f f e r e n t i a t e d w i t h
r e l a t i v e e f f i c i e n c y a n d f r e q u e n c y b e tw e e n s e v e r a l
s u b j e c t m a t t e r a r e a s c o m p l e t e l y d i v o r c e d fr o m t h e
n a t u r a l s c i e n c e s .
152
Predictor J_:
S o c i a l S t u d i e s - M a t h e m a t i c s ( r , . 2 6 3 }
C o m m u n i c a t i v e A r t s - F o r e i g n L a n g u a g e s ( r , . 2 1 7 (
S o c i a l S t u d i e s - F o r e i g n L a n g u a g e s ( r , . 2 1 4
C o m m u n i c a t i v e A r t s - F i n e A r t s ( r , .1 8 8 ,
P r e d i c t o r "7* " a m e a s u r e of* I n t e r p r e t i v e s k i l l w i t h
l i t e r a r y m a t e r i a l s , c o r r e l a t e d s i g n i f i c a n t l y w i t h
tw o c r i t e r i a I n v o l v i n g t h e C o m m u n i c a t i v e A r t s a r e a
a n d w i t h tw o o t h e r s I n v o l v i n g t h e S o c i a l S t u d i e s
a r e a . I n a l l f o u r c a s e s , s t u d e n t s h a v i n g d o n e w e l l
o n p r e d i c t o r " 7 " w e r e m o r e l i k e l y t o e a r n
d i f f e r e n c e s i n w h i c h C o m m u n i c a t i v e A r t s a n d S o c i a l
S t u d i e s g r a d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s e x c e e d e d g r a d e p o i n t
a v e r a g e s i n t h e p a i r e d s u b j e c t m a t t e r a r e a s t h a n
v i c e v e r s a . B y c o n t r a s t , d i f f e r e n c e s i n w h i c h
g r a d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s i n t h e F o r e i g n L a n g u a g e s a r e a
e x c e e d e d g r a d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s i n t h e tw o o p p o s i n g
s u b j e c t m a t t e r a r e a s w e r e m o r e f r e q u e n t l y a s s o c i a t e d
w i t h lo w s c o r e s o n t h e p r e d i c t o r t h a n w i t h h i g h
s c o r e s .
P r e d i c t o r £3:
P h y s i c a l S c i e n c e s - M a t h e m a t i c s
S o c i a l S t u d i e s - F o r e i g n L a n g u a g e s
S o c i a l S t u d i e s - M a t h e m a t i c s
C o m m u n i c a t i v e A r t s - F o r e i g n L a n g u a g e s
S o c i a l S t u d i e s - P h y s i c a l S c i e n c e s
P r e d i c t o r " 8 , " a g e n e r a l v o c a b u l a r y t e s t , c o r r e l a t e d
r , .561
r , .3 9 3
r, .351
r,
.3 2 8
r ,
.2 1 1
s i g n i f i c a n t l y w i t h f i v e c r i t e r i a . T he m e a n
153
c o e f f i c i e n t o f c o r r e l a t i o n b e tw e e n t h e p r e d i c t o r and
i t s c r i t e r i a was .3 6 9 . T h is v a l u e was h i g h e r t h a n
t h e mean c o e f f i c i e n t o f c o r r e l a t i o n b e tw e e n a n y
o t h e r p r e d i c t o r an d t h e r e s p e c t i v e c r i t e r i a w i t h
w h ic h s i g n i f i c a n t r e l a t i o n s h i p s w e re f o u n d . I n
t h r e e c a s e s , h i g h s c o r e s on p r e d i c t o r " 8 ,f w ere
a s s o c i a t e d w i t h d i f f e r e n c e s i n w h ic h g r a d e p o i n t
a v e r a g e s i n th e S o c i a l S t u d i e s a r e a e x c e e d e d g r a d e
p o i n t a v e r a g e s i n t h e t h r e e p a i r e d s u b j e c t m a t t e r
a r e a s . On t h e o t h e r h a n d , d i f f e r e n c e s i n w h ic h
g r a d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s i n th e F o r e i g n L a n g u a g e s an d
t h e M a th e m a tic s a r e a s e x c e e d e d g r a d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s
i n t h e f o u r o p p o s i n g s u b j e c t m a t t e r a r e a s w ere more
f r e q u e n t l y a s s o c i a t e d w i t h low s c o r e s on t h e
p r e d i c t o r t h a n w i t h h i g h s c o r e s .
P r e d i c t o r
S o c i a l S t u d i e s - B u s i n e s s ( r , - .4 0 9 )
S o c i a l S t u d i e s - F o r e i g n L a n g u a g e s ( r , .3 1 8 )
S o c i a l S t u d i e s - M a th e m a tic s ( r , .3 1 4 )
C o m m u n icativ e A r t s - F o r e i g n L a n g u a g e s ( r , . 2 9 5 )
S o c i a l S t u d i e s - F i n e A r t s ( r , .1 9 1 )
S o c i a l S t u d i e s - C o m m u n ic ativ e A r t s ( r , .1 0 6 )
P r e d i c t o r "9* " e n t i t l e d "Use o f S o u r c e s o f
I n f o r m a t i o n , " d i f f e r e n t i a t e d r e l a t i v e l y w e l l b e tw e e n
g r a d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s i n t h e S o c i a l S t u d i e s an d t h e
B u s i n e s s a r e a s . I n t h i s p a r t i c u l a r c o r r e l a t i o n ,
h i g h s c o r e s on t h e p r e d i c t o r w ere a s s o c i a t e d w i t h
154
d i f f e r e n c e s i n w h ic h g r a d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s f o r t h e
B u s i n e s s a r e a e x c e e d e d g r a d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s f o r
t h e S o c i a l S t u d i e s a r e a . O t h e r n o t e w o r t h y
o b s e r v a t i o n s w e re : (a ) P r e d i c t o r "9 " c o r r e l a t e d
s i g n i f i c a n t l y w i t h f i v e o f t h e s e v e n c r i t e r i a i n
w h ic h t h e S o c i a l S t u d i e s a r e a a p p e a r e d , h i g h s c o r e s
on t h e p r e d i c t o r b e i n g a s s o c i a t e d i n f o u r o f t h e
f i v e c o r r e l a t i o n s w i t h d i f f e r e n c e s i n w h ic h g r a d e
p o i n t a v e r a g e s f o r t h e S o c i a l S t u d i e s a r e a e x c e e d e d
g r a d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s f o r t h e o p p o s i n g a r e a s ; (b)
p r e d i c t o r "9" a l s o c o r r e l a t e d s i g n i f i c a n t l y w i t h
b o t h o f t h e c r i t e r i a i n w h ic h t h e F o r e i g n L a n g u a g e s
a r e a a p p e a r e d , a l t h o u g h d i f f e r e n c e s i n w h ic h g r a d e
p o i n t a v e r a g e s i n t h e F o r e i g n L a n g u a g e s a r e a
e x c e e d e d g r a d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s i n t h e p a i r e d s u b j e c t
m a t t e r a r e a s w e re a s s o c i a t e d w i t h low r a t h e r t h a n
h i g h s c o r e s on t h e p r e d i c t o r .
P r e d i c t o r E n g :
C o m m u n ic a tiv e A r t s - F i n e A r t s ( r , .234}
S o c i a l S t u d i e s - C o m m u n ic a tiv e A r t s ( r , - . 1 0 0 )
P r e d i c t o r ''Eng" c o r r e l a t e d s i g n i f i c a n t l y w i t h two
c r i t e r i a , b o t h o f w h ic h w e re b a s e d on p a i r i n g s w h ic h
i n c l u d e d t h e C o m m u n ic a tiv e A r t s a r e a . H igh s c o r e s
on t h e p r e d i c t o r w e re a s s o c i a t e d i n b o t h c a s e s w i t h
d i f f e r e n c e s i n w h ic h g r a d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s f o r t h e
C o m m u n ic a tiv e A r t s a r e a e x c e e d e d g r a d e p o i n t a v e r a g e
f o r t h e p a i r e d s u b j e c t m a t t e r a r e a s .
P r e d i c t o r S S :
C o m m u n ic a tiv e A r t s - F i n e A r t s ( r , *253)
S o c i a l S t u d i e s - F i n e A r t s ( r , .2 4 0 )
P r e d i c t o r "SS" c o r r e l a t e d s i g n i f i c a n t l y w i t h o n l y
one o f t h e s e v e n c r i t e r i a i n w h ic h t h e S o c i a l S t u d i e
a r e a a p p e a r e d . In t h a t i n s t a n c e , h i g h s c o r e s on t h e
p r e d i c t o r w e re a s s o c i a t e d w i t h d i f f e r e n c e s i n w h ic h
g r a d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s f o r t h e S o c i a l S t u d i e s a r e a
e x c e e d e d g r a d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s f o r t h e o p p o s i n g a r e a .
In b o t h c o r r e l a t i o n s , low s c o r e s on t h e p r e d i c t o r
w e re a s s o c i a t e d w i t h d i f f e r e n c e s i n w h ic h g r a d e
p o i n t a v e r a g e s f o r t h e F i n e A r t s a r e a e x c e e d e d
g r a d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s f o r t h e o p p o s i n g s u b j e c t m a t t e r
a r e a s .
P r e d i c t o r S c l :
P r e d i c t o r " S c i " f a i l e d t o c o r r e l a t e s i g n i f i c a n t l y
w i t h an y c r i t e r i o n .
P r e d i c t o r M a th :
P r e d i c t o r "M ath" f a i l e d t o c o r r e l a t e s i g n i f i c a n t l y
w i t h a n y c r i t e r i o n .
156
P r e d i c t o r FL:
C o m m u n ic a tiv e A r t s - F o r e i g n L a n g u a g e s ( r , - . 2 1 3 )
S o c i a l S t u d i e s - B u s i n e s s f r , - . 2 0 5 )
S o c i a l S t u d i e s - F o r e i g n L a n g u a g e s ( r , - . 1 9 3 )
P r e d i c t o r "FL " c o r r e l a t e d s i g n i f i c a n t l y w i t h b o t h o f
t h e c r i t e r i a b a s e d o n p a i r i n g s i n w h i c h t h e F o r e i g n
L a n g u a g e s a r e a w as a m em b er. H ig h s c o r e s o n t h e
p r e d i c t o r w e r e a s s o c i a t e d w i t h d i f f e r e n c e s i n w h i c h
g r a d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s f o r t h e F o r e i g n L a n g u a g e s a r e a
e x c e e d e d g r a d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s f o r t h e a l t e r n a t i v e
s u b j e c t m a t t e r a r e a s .
As t h e s i x t e e n p r e d i c t o r s w e re s t u d i e d a n d
e v a l u a t e d , s e v e r a l o b s e r v a t i o n s w e re m ade w h i c h se e m e d
w o r t h y o f n o t e :
1 . The l a r g e s t n u m b e r o f s i g n i f i c a n t c o r r e l a t i o n s
b e t w e e n a g i v e n p r e d i c t o r a n d a n y o f t h e t e n
c r i t e r i a w as n i n e f o r p r e d i c t o r " l . " T h u s ,
p r e d i c t o r " l " w as t h e m o s t f r e q u e n t p r e d i c t o r
o f s i g n i f i c a n t d i f f e r e n c e s f o r t h e s a m p le f r o m
J u n i o r C o l l e g e "B."
2 . Two p r e d i c t o r s d i d n o t c o r r e l a t e s i g n i f i c a n t l y
w i t h a n y o f t h e c r i t e r i a . T h e y w e r e :
P r e d i c t o r s " S c i " a n d " M a t h ."
3 . When s i g n s w e re d i s r e g a r d e d , t h e f i f t y - o n e
s i g n i f i c a n t c o r r e l a t i o n s b e t w e e n t e s t s o f t h e
ITED an d t h e tw e lv e c r i t e r i a h a d a m ean v a l u e
o f . 2 6 3 ; t h e s i x s i g n i f i c a n t c o r r e l a t i o n s
b e tw e e n s u b - t e s t s o f t h e ACE a n d t h e tw e lv e
c r i t e r i a h a d a m ean v a l u e o f . 2 5 6 ; a n d t h e
s e v e n s i g n i f i c a n t c o r r e l a t i o n s b e tw e e n g r a d e
p o i n t a v e r a g e s i n a r e a s o f h i g h s c h o o l s u b j e c t
m a t t e r and t h e tw e lv e c r i t e r i a h a d a mean
v a l u e o f . 2 0 5 .
Of t h e s i x t y - f o u r s i g n i f i c a n t c o r r e l a t i o n s ,
f o r t y i n v o l v e d c r i t e r i a b a s e d o n p a i r i n g s i n
w h ic h t h e S o c i a l S t u d i e s a r e a a p p e a r e d . I n
t h i r t y - f i v e o f t h e f o r t y , h i g h s c o r e s on t h e
p r e d i c t o r s w ere a s s o c i a t e d w i t h d i f f e r e n c e s i n
w h ic h g r a d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s f o r t h e S o c i a l
s t u d i e s a r e a e x c e e d e d g r a d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s f o r
t h e o p p o s i n g s u b j e c t m a t t e r a r e a s .
The C o m m u n ic ativ e A r t s a r e a a p p e a r e d i n t h e
c r i t e r i a o f t w e n t y - n i n e c o r r e l a t i o n s . I n
s e v e n t e e n o f t h e t w e n t y - n i n e , h i g h s c o r e s on
t h e p r e d i c t o r w ere a s s o c i a t e d w i t h d i f f e r e n c e s
i n w h ic h g r a d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s f o r th e
C o m m u n icativ e A r t s a r e a e x c e e d e d g r a d e p o i n t
a v e r a g e s f o r t h e o p p o s i n g s u b j e c t m a t t e r a r e a s .
Among t h e s i x p r e d i c t o r s w h ic h w ere Ju d g e d t o
b e q u a n t i t a t i v e i n c o n t e n t ( i . e . , " Q ," "2 , " " 4 , "
"6 , " " M a th ," and " S c i " ) , t h r e e ( i . e . , " 2 , "
"4," and "6 ") c o r r e la te d s i g n i f i c a n t l y s i x
tim es w ith the three c r i t e r i a based on
p a ir in g s o f a q u a n tita tiv e versu s a l i n g u i s t i c
su b je c t m atter area ( i . e . , S o c ia l S tu d ies -
Mathematics, S o c ia l S tu d ies - P h y sica l
S c ie n c e s , and Communicative Arts - P h y sica l
S c ie n c e s ) . In three o f the s i x c o r r e la t io n s ,
h igh sc o r e s on the p r e d ic to r were a s s o c ia te d
w ith d iff e r e n c e s in which grade p o in t averages
fo r the q u a n tita tiv e area exceeded grade p o in t
averages fo r the l i n g u i s t i c a rea s. In the
three remaining c o r r e la t io n s , h igh sc o r e s on
the p r e d ic to r were a s s o c ia te d w ith d if f e r e n c e s
In which grade p o in t averages fo r the l i n g u i s t i c
areas exceeded grade p o in t averages fo r the
q u a n tita tiv e a rea s. Both o f the c o r r e la tio n s
in v o lv in g p r e d ic to r "4" found h igh sc o r e s on
the p r e d ic to r a s s o c ia t e d w ith d if f e r e n c e s in
which grade p o in t averages in the P h y sica l
S cie n c es area exceeded grade p o in t averages In
the opposing su b jec t m atter a rea s. By c o n tr a s t,
both o f the c o r r e la tio n s in v o lv in g p r e d ic to r "6 "
found high sco res on the p r e d ic to r a s s o c ia te d
w ith d iff e r e n c e s in which grade p o in t averages
159
i n th e S o c i a l S t u d i e s a r e a e x c e e d e d grad e
p o i n t a v e r a g e s i n th e o p p o s in g q u a n t i t a t i v e
a r e a s . The d i r e c t i o n s o f c r i t e r i o n d i f f e r e n c e s
f o r t h o s e c o r r e l a t i o n s i n w hich p r e d i c t o r "2 "
ap p eared were i n c o n s i s t e n t . P r e d i c t o r s ,
c r i t e r i a , and c o e f f i c i e n t s o f c o r r e l a t i o n f o r
th e s i x r e l a t i o n s h i p s ap pear i n T ab le XXXV.
7 . Among th e t e n p r e d i c t o r s w hich were c o n s id e r e d
to be l i n g u i s t i c i n c o n t e n t ( i . e . , " L ," "1,"
"3," "5," ”7 , ” "8," ”9," "Eng," " S S ," and " F L ” ) ,
s e v e n ( i . e . , " L ," " l , " "3," "5," "7," "8," and
"9 ") c o r r e l a t e d s i g n i f i c a n t l y t e n tim e s w ith
th e th r e e c r i t e r i a b ased on p a i r i n g s o f a
q u a n t i t a t i v e v e r s u s a l i n g u i s t i c s u b j e c t m a tte r
a r e a . In a l l c o r r e l a t i o n s e x c e p t two, h ig h
s c o r e s on th e p r e d i c t o r s were a s s o c i a t e d w ith
d i f f e r e n c e s i n w hich g rad e p o i n t a v e r a g e s f o r
a l i n g u i s t i c a r e a ( i . e . , th e S o c i a l S t u d i e s
a rea ) e x c e e d e d grad e p o i n t a v e r a g e s f o r th e two
q u a n t i t a t i v e s u b j e c t m a tt e r a r e a s . The two
e x c e p t i o n s in v o lv e d c o r r e l a t i o n s i n w hich h ig h
s c o r e s on th e p r e d i c t o r s were a s s o c i a t e d w ith
d i f f e r e n c e s f o r w hich grad e p o i n t a v e r a g e s i n
th e q u a n t i t a t i v e a r e a ( i . e . , th e P h y s i c a l
S c i e n c e s a re a ) e x c e e d e d g rad e p o i n t a v e r a g e s
i6 o
TABLE XXXV.—C o e f f ic ie n ts o f c o r r e l a t io n "between s e le c te d
p r e d ic to r s c o n s id e re d to be q u a n ti t a t iv e in c o n te n t and th r e e
c r i t e r i a b a se d on d if f e r e n c e s betw een l i n g u i s t i c and q u a n ti t a t iv e
s u b je c t m a tte r a re a s
P r e d ic to r C r i te r io n C o r r e la tio n
2 S o c ia l S tu d ie s - M athem atics . 29 k
6 S o c ia l S tu d ie s - M athem atics .290
k S o c ia l S tu d ie s - P h y s ic a l S c ien c es - .3 6 8
6 S o c ia l S tu d ie s - P h y s ic a l S c ien c es .189
4 Com m unicative A rts - P h y s ic a l S c ien c es
m
M 3
O J
•
1
2 Com m unicative A rts - P h y s ic a l S c ien c es
-.2 3 9
fo r the l i n g u i s t i c a rea s. P r e d ic to r s, c r i t e r i a ,
and c o e f f i c i e n t s o f c o r r e la tio n fo r the ten
r e la tio n s h ip s appear in Table XXXVI.
8 . Among the three p re d ic to r s which co r r e la te d
s i g n i f i c a n t l y w ith the on ly c r it e r i o n based on
d iffe r e n c e s between two q u a n tita tiv e su b jec t
m atter areas ( i . e . , P h ysical S cien ces -
Mathematics), two were l i n g u i s t i c in content
and one was q u a n tita tiv e . By fa r the b e st
p r e d ic tio n was supplied by the h e a v ily verbal
p red ic to r ”8 ."
9. Thirteen p red ic to r s co r r e la te d s i g n i f i c a n t l y
twenty-nine times w ith the three c r i t e r i a based
on p a ir in g s o f l i n g u i s t i c su b ject m atter areas
( i . e . , S o c ia l S tu d ies - Communicative A rts,
S o c ia l S tu d ies - Foreign Languages, and
Communicative Arts - Foreign Languages). The
nine l i n g u i s t i c p re d ic to r s had a mean r value
o f .258 w ith the three c r i t e r i a and the four
q u a n tita tiv e p red icto r s had a mean r value o f
.215.
The fin d in g s fo r Junior C ollege M B,f are reported In
Tables XXXVII through XLVIII. The inform ation i s
organized so th a t a l l m a teria l r e la t in g to a given
c r it e r io n appears In a separate ta b le .
162
TABLE XXXVI.—C o e ffic ie n ts o f c o rre la tio n between s e le c te d
p re d ic to rs co n sid ered to be lin g u is tic In c o n ten t and th re e c r i t e r i a
based on d iffe re n c e s between l in g u i s t i c and q u a n tita tiv e su b je c t
m a tte r are as
P re d ic to r C rite rio n C o rre la tio n
8 S o c ial S tudies - M athematics
.351
L S o c ial S tudies - M athematics .321
5
S o cial S tu d ies - M athematics
.31^
9
S o cial S tudies - M athematics
.31^
1 S o cial S tudies - M athematics .298
7
S o cial S tudies - M athematics
.263
3
S o cial S tudies - M athematics .229
8 S o cial S tudies - P h y sica l Sciences .211
1 Communicative A rts - P h y sica l Sciences -.316
5
Communicative A rts - P h y sica l Sciences -.221
163
TABLE XXXVII.— Junior College ”B": Pearson correlations between
single predictors and differences in grade point averages for courses
in the Social Studies and the Communicative Arts (N, M+9)
Predictor r SE CR E 100r2
1 . 308^
.2oa£
.01+ 3 6.553
I +.858 9.1+86
2 .0 1 + 5 1 +.1+26 2 .1 8 9 1+.326
1 + .20? .0 1 + 5
1+.362 2.123 1+.203
5 .11.5?
. 01+6 3.085 2 .0 7 2
2.103
6
.127?
. 0L 6 2 .7 0 2 .8 0 8
1.613
9
.io 6a . 01+7
2.255
.5 6 2 1 . 121+
ft ,100a .01+ 7 2 .1 2 8 .501 1.000
Eng -.iooa .01+ 7 2 .1 2 8 .5 0 1 1.000
8 .091 .01+ 7 1.936 .1+16 .8 2 8
SS .0 8 2 . 01+7
1.71+5
.336 .6 7 2
Math .0 7 1 . 01+7
1.5H
.250 .5 0 1 +
L .0 6 3 .01+7 1.31+0
.2 2 0
.397
Sci .01+6 . 01+7 .979
.105 .212
3 -.01+3
. 01+7 .915 .095 .185
7
- .0 3 0 . 01+7
.638 .0U 5 .0 9 0
FL .0 0 0 . 01+7 .000 .0 0 0 .0 0 0
aSignificant at the five per cent level of confidence.
Significant at the one per cent level of confidence.
164
TABLE XXXVTII.—J u n io r C ollege "B": Pearson c o r r e la tio n s between
s in g le p re d ic to r s and d iffe re n c e s in grade p o in t av erag es f o r co u rses
in th e S o c ia l S tu d ies and th e M athem atics (N, l4 8 )
Predictor r SE CR E 100r 2
8
• 35l£
.0 7 2 4.280 6 .3 6 2 1 2 .3 2 0
L
,3 2 l£
.074
3.915
5.290 10.304
5 . 3 1 <
.074 3.829 5.058 9 .8 6 0
9
.3 1 ^ .OjU 3.829 5.058 9 .8 6 0
1 . 29a
.29*f
.075
3.634
4.543
8 .8 8 0
2
.075 3.585
4.418 8.644
6 .076
3.537
4.297 8.4io
7 . 2 6 ? .077 3.207
3.522
6.917
3
. 229^ .0 7 8
2.793 2.655
5.244
4 .1 2 0 .081
1.463 .723
1.440
SS
• 119
.0 8 1
1.451 • 713
1.4i6
Math .050 .0 8 2 .6 1 0
.125
.2 5 0
Eng ,o4i .0 8 2 .5 0 0 .085 .1 6 8
Sci .0 3 6 .0 8 2
.439 .065 .130
0. .015
.082 .1 8 3
.0 1 0
.023
FL .012 .0 8 2 .146 .005
.oi4
^Significant at the one per cent le v el of confidence.
165
TABLE XXXIX.—J u n io r C ollege "B": Pearson c o rr e la tio n s "between
s in g le p r e d ic to rs and d iffe re n c e s in grade p o in t averages f o r courses
in th e Communicative A rts and th e M athem atics (N, 135)
P re d ic to r r SE CR E 100r2
8 .11? .085 1.360 .687 1.369
0 - .llU .085 1.326 .652 1.300
h
-.1 0 3 .085 1.198 .531
1.061
7
.101 .085
l . r f t .511
1.020
s s
.059
.086 .686
.175
. 3^8
L
.053
.086 .616 .ll+O .281
6 .01+2 .086 .1+88 .090 .176
2
.039
.086
.^53 .075
.152
Scl -.0 3 8 .086 .1 + 1 + 2 .070 .1 1 + 1 +
Eng -.0 3 2 .086 .372 .050 .102
5
.030 .086
. 3^9 . 01+ 5
.090
3
.02U .086
.279
.030 .058
9
.016 .086 .186
.015
.026
1 -.0 1 1 .086 .128
.005
.012
FL .010 .086 .116
.005 .010
Math -.0 1 0 .086 .116 .005 .010
166
TABLE XL.—J u n io r C ollege "B": Pearson c o rr e la tio n s betw een sin g le
p re d ic to r s and d iffe re n c e s in grade p o in t av erag es f o r co u rses in
th e S o c ia l S tu d ies and th e F ine A rts (ll, 13*0
P re d ic to r r SE CR E 100r2
6 . 28U * ; .080 3.264 4.120 8.066
5 . e n \
.080 3.184
3.912 7.673
1
. 252^
.081
2.897 3.227 6.350
s s .082
2.759 2.923 5.760
L
•®3°«
.082 2.644 2.681 5.290
Q
.191
.084
2.195
1.842 3.648
4 .164 .084
1.885 1.354 2.690
8
.163
.084 1.874
1.339 2.657
Eng
.161 .084 1.851 1.304 2.592
Math
.159
.085 1.828
1.273
2.528
0 . . l 4o .085
1.609 .985
1.960
2
.139
.085
1.598 .970 1.932
7 .127 .085
i . 46o .808 1.613
3 .103 .086 1.184
.531
1.061
FL .090 .086 1.034 . 4o6 .810
Sci .090 .086 1.034 .406 .810
^Significant at the fiv e per cent le v e l of confidence.
Significant at the one per cent le v e l of confidence.
167
TABLE X L I.—J u n io r C ollege "B": P earson c o r r e la tio n s betw een s in g le
p r e d ic to r s and d if f e re n c e s in grade p o in t a v e ra g e s f o r c o u rses in
th e S o c ia l S tu d ie s and th e F o re ig n Languages (N, 127)
P r e d ic to r r SE CR E 100r2
8
. 393?
. 365?
. 3^
.075
4 . 4l 6 8.049
15.445
L .078 4.056 7.280 13.032
6
.079
3.854 6.069
11.765
5
*33\
.079 3.719 5.639
10.956
9 . 318?
. 3° 9?
.080
3.573
5.190
10.112
1 .081 3.472 4.895 9 . 5^8
2 . 242?
. 238“
.084
2.719 2 . 97^
5.856
3
.084 2.674 2.871 5.664
. 229®
.084
2.573 2.655
5.244
7
. 2l 4a .085
2.404
2 .317
4 .580
FL
- . 193®
.086 2.169 1.883 3.725
Q . .171
.087 1.921 1.471 2.924
Sci .090 .088 1.011 . 4o6 .810
Eng
.037
.089 .416 .070
.137
Math
.035
.089
.393
.060 .123
SS .012 .089
.135 .005
.014
^Significant a t the fiv e per cent le v e l of confidence.
S ignificant a t the one per cent le v e l of confidence.
168
TABLE X L II.—J u n io r C ollege "B": P earson c o r r e la tio n s betw een
s in g le p r e d ic to r s and d if fe r e n c e s in grade p o in t av erag e s f o r co u rses
in th e Communicative A rts and th e F ine A rts (N, 124)
P r e d ic to r r SE C R E 100r2
s s
. 253^
. 244^
.084 2.811
3.253
6 . 4o i
5 .085
2.711 3.021 5.954
L
*235b
.085 2.611
2.799 5.523
Eng
• 2 3 k l
.085
2.600
2.779
5.476
7
.188
.087
2.089 1.781 3.534
1 . l 8 l a .087 2.011 1.654 3.276
6 . 178a .087 1.978 1.598 3.168
8 .164 .088 1.822 1.354 2.690
3 .137
.088 1.522
. 9^5 1.877
9
.132 .089 1.467
.874 1.742
2
.093 .089 1.033
.436
.865
4 .087 .089
.967
.381 .757
Q . .082 .090
.911
.336 .672
Math .064 .090
.711 .205
. 4io
Sci .043 .090 .478 ’
.095 .185
FL
.035
.090
.389
.060 .123
£
^Significant at the fiv e per cent le v e l of confidence.
Significant at the one per cent le v e l of confidence.
169
TABLE X L III.—J u n io r C o lleg e "B ": P e a rso n c o r r e l a t io n s betw een
s in g le p r e d ic to r s and d if f e r e n c e s in g rad e p o in t a v e ra g e s f o r c o u rse s
in th e S o c ia l S tu d ie s and th e P h y s ic a l S c ien c es (N, 122)
P r e d ic to r r SE CR E
2
lOOr
1 + - . 368I
.079
4 .0 4 4 7.016 13.542
8 . 211 .087
2.319
2.250 4.4 5 2
6 .189s .088 2.077 1.801 3.572
7
.158 .089 1.736 1.258 2 .496
3
. l 4l .089
1 - 5^9
1.000 1.9 8 8
Math
-.1 3 7
.089
1.505 .945 1.8 7 7
9 .119
.090 1.308
.713
l . 4i 6
L .116 .090
1.275 .677
1.3 4 6
5 .113
.090 1.242 .642
1.277
2
.079
.090 .868
.311
.624
S ci -.0 7 4 .090 .813 .275
.548
1
.053
.091 .582 , l 4o .281
SS .052 .091
.571 .135 .270
FL -.0 3 8 .091 . 4l 8 .070 .144
0. -.0 2 9 .091
.319
.o 4o .084
Eng .025
.091
.275
.030 .063
® Signifleant at the fiv e per cent le v e l of confidence.
S ig n ifica n t at the one per cent le v e l of confidence.
170
TABLE XLIV.—J u n io r C o lle g e "B ": P e a rso n c o r r e l a t io n s betw een
s in g le p r e d i c to r s and d if f e r e n c e s in g rad e p o in t a v e ra g e s f o r c o u rs e s
in th e P h y s ic a l S c ie n c e s and th e M athem atics (N, 114)
P r e d ic to r r SE CR E
2
lOOr
8
•5 6 la
. 061+ 5 .9 6 8 1 7 .2 1 7 3 1 . 1+72
1 . 212 .0 9 0
2 .2 5 5 £ .2 7 1 1 +A 9I +
2 ,210a .0 9 0 2 . 23!+
2 .2 3 0 1+.1+10
5 .195
.0 9 0
1 .9 5 ^
1 .9 1 8 3 .8 0 3
FL
.157
.0 9 2 1 .6 7 0 1 . 2I +3 2 . 1+65
SS .11+8 .0 9 2
1 .5 7 ^
1 .1 0 1 2 .1 9 0
6
.1*H .0 9 2 1 .5 0 0 1.000 1 .9 8 8
7 .119 .0 9 3
1 .2 6 6
.7 1 3
1 . 1+16
L .100
.0 9 3
1 . 06I + .501 1 .0 0 0
Q .0 9 2 .0 9 3 .979
. 1+26 .81+6
9
.0 7 8
. 091+ .8 3 0 .3 0 6 .6 0 8
Eng .0 7 2 . 09! + .7 6 6 .2 6 0 .518
Sci .0 6 2 . 091+ .660 .1 9 0 .381+
1 + .0 5 0 . 091+ • 532 .125
.2 5 0
3
.01+0 . 091+ . 1+26 .0 8 0 .1 6 0
Math .0 0 8 . 091+
.0 8 5
.005 .0 0 6
^ S ign ifican t a t the fiv e per cent le v e l o f confidence.
S ig n ifica n t a t the one per cent le v e l of confidence.
171
•CABLE XLV.--Junior College "B": Pearson c o rr e la tio n s between sin g le
p re d ic to rs and d iffe re n c e s In grade p o in t averages f o r courses In
the Communicative A rts and the P hysical Sciences (N, 112)
P re d ic to r r SE CR E lOOr2
1
- • 3i6£
-.2 6 3 °
.085 3 .3 2 6 5 .1 2 6 9 .9 8 6
1 + .0 8 8 2 .7 6 8 3.522
6 .9 1 7
2
-.239®
.0 9 0 2 .5 1 6 2 .897 5 .712
5
- .2 2 1 .0 9 0 2 .3 2 6 2.1+71 1+.881+
Q -.1 6 5
.0 9 2
1 .7 3 7 1.369 2 .723
9 -.1 3 5 .0 9 3
1.1+21
.91^ 1 .8 2 3
Math -.1 1 1 . 091+
1 .1 6 8 .617 1 .2 3 2
6
-.0 9 9
.0 9 4 1 .042
.1+91
.9 8 0
L
-.0 9 7
. 091+ 1 .0 2 1
.1+71 .9^1
Sci - .0 9 0 . 091+ .9^7
. 1+06 .810
7
- .0 8 1 . 091+
.853 .331
.6 5 6
s s - .0 8 1 .0 9 4
.853 .331
.6 5 6
Eng -.0*+0
.095
.1+21 .0 8 0 .1 6 0
3 -.0 3 5 .095
.3 6 8 .0 6 0
.123
8 - . 031+
.095
.358 .060 .1 1 6
FL
- .0 2 7 .095
.281+
.035 .073
® Signifleant a t the fiv e per cent le v e l of confidence.
S ig n ifica n t a t the one per cent le v e l of confidence.
172
TABLE X L V I.--Junior C ollege "B": Pearson c o rre la tio n s between
sin g le p re d ic to rs and d iffe re n c e s in grade p o in t averages f o r courses
in th e Communicative A rts and th e F oreign Languages (N, 106)
Predictor r SE CR E lOOr2
5
•37o£
.084 3.776 7.242 13.690
8 .3 2 ^ .087 3.347 5.533 10.758
9 .295^
.089 3.010 4.449 8.703
L
. 28^
.089 2.949 4.266 8.352
6
•253!
.091 2.583 3.253
6.401
3 .239®
.092 2.439 2.897 5.712
2 .226
.093
2 .3 0 6 2.589 5.108
7 .217® .093
2 .2 l4
2.383 4.709
FL
-.213® .093 2.173
2.296
4.537
1
. i 9 r
.094 2.010
1.959
3.881
Math -.0 8 5 .097 .867 .361 .723
.056
.097 • 571 .155 .314
Q . .046
.097 .469 .105
.212
Sci -.0 3 6
.097 .367 .065 .130
Eng .020
.097
.204 .020 .040
SS -.0 2 0
.097
.204 .020 .040
^Significant at the fiv e per cent le v el of confidence.
Significant at the one per cent lev el of confidence.
173
TABLE XLVII.—J u n io r C ollege "B": Pearson c o rr e la tio n s between
s in g le p re d ic to r s and d iffe re n c e s In grade p o in t averages f o r courses
in th e S o c ia l S tu d ies and In B usiness (N, 95)
Predictor r SE CR E lOOr2
9 -.4 0 9 I
.086
3.971
8 . 71+8 16.728
FL
-.2 0 5 .099
1 .9 9 0 2.123 1+.203
Math
-.1 5 5
.101
1.505 1.2 0 7 2.1+03
3 -.1 3 2 .102 1.282 . 871+ 1 . 71+2
8 .122 .102 1.181+ . 7 1 + 8 1 . 1+ 8 8
5
.121 ;i0 2
1.175 .733
1.1+61+
1 .lll+ .102
1.107
.652 1.300
6 .1 1 1 .102 I.O 78 .617 1.232
k -.0 8 9
.103
.861+ .396 .792
Eng -.0 8 9
.103
.861+ .396 .792
SS -.0 8 6 .103 .835 .371
. 7 1 + 0
2 .081
.103
.786
.331
.656
Sci
-.0 7 9 .103 .767 .3 1 1
.624
L
-.0 5 1 .103 > 9 5
.130 .260
7 -.0 1 7 .101+ .165 .015
.029
Q . .006 .101+ .058 .000 . 001+
£
^Significant at the fiv e per cent le v el of confidence.
Significant at the one per cent le v e l of confidence.
174
TABLE XLVTII.— Junior College "B": Pearson correlations Between
single predictors and differences in grade point averages for courses
in the Social Studies and in Secretarial Science (N, 90)
Predictor r SE CR E lOOr2
1 . 22la .1 0 1 2 .0 8 5 2.471 4.884
3
-.205 .1 0 2
1.93^
2.123 4.203
2 .198 .1 0 2 1 .8 6 8 1 .9 8 0 3.920
Q .
- .1 2 9 .104 1 .2 1 7 .834 1.664
SS .105 .105 .991
.552 1 .1 0 3
4 - .1 0 1
.105 • 953 .511
1 .0 2 0
7
.096
.105 .906 .461 .922
5
.080
.105 .755
.321 .640
Math
.075 .105
.708 .2 8 0
.563
FL - .0 7 0
.105
.660 .245 .4 9 0
Eng -.070 .105 .660 .245 .4 9 0
6 . 066 .1 0 6 .623 .220 .436
8
.053
.1 0 6 .500 .140 .281
L .046 .1 0 6 .434
.105
.212
Sci -.025 .1 0 6 .236 .030 .063
9 .015 .1 0 6 .142 .010 .023
£
Significant at the fiv e per cent le v el of confidence.
175
I I . MULTIPLE CORRELATIONS BETWEEN VARIOUS
COMBINATIONS OF TWO OR MORE PREDICTORS
AND NINE CRITERIA
In the preceding section where consideration was
limited to correlations based on two variables, fourteen
predictors were found to correlate significantly sixty-
four times with eleven criteria. Except for two of
these criteria, i.e., Social Studies - Secretarial
Science and Communicative Arts - Mathematics, all were
predicted significantly two or more times. This
information was prerequisite to more efficient prediction
through multiple correlation.
All coefficients of multiple correlation were
estimated by the Wherry-Doolittle Test Selection Method
(10:435-451, 11:447-448). With one exception, each
coefficient of multiple correlation was as large or
larger than any of the Pearson coefficients between
single predictors and the same criterion. The lone
exception involved the Communicative Arts - Foreign
Languages criterion. In this case, the amount of chance
error introduced when the best predictive twosome was
assembled overbalanced the increase in predictive
efficiency which would otherwise have been achieved. For
this reason the Communicative Arts - Foreign Languages
criterion was removed from further consideration.
176
The n i n e r e m a in i n g m u l t i p l e c o e f f i c i e n t s ra n g e d
from .3 0 5 t o .6 3 9 and had a mean v a lu e o f .4 1 3 . A l l
w ere s i g n i f i c a n t a t t h e one p e r c e n t l e v e l o f c o n f i d e n c e .
The im prov em ent i n p r e d i c t i v e e f f i c i e n c y a c h i e v e d
b y t h e m u l t i p l e c o r r e l a t i o n s o v e r t h a t p r o v i d e d by t h e
b e s t P e a rs o n c o r r e l a t i o n s f o r t h e same c r i t e r i a was
s m a l l . D i f f e r e n c e s b e tw e e n I n d i c e s o f F o r e c a s t i n g
E f f i c i e n c y b a s e d on m u l t i p l e c o r r e l a t i o n s and t h o s e
b a s e d on t h e b e s t P e a rs o n c o r r e l a t i o n s f o r c o r r e s p o n d i n g
c r i t e r i a v a r i e d from .1 4 9 t o 1 3 .8 9 1 w ith a mean v a l u e o f
2 .7 7 4 . A c o m p le te r e p o r t o f t h e s e d i f f e r e n c e s i s
a v a i l a b l e i n T a b le XLIX.
The am ount o f v a r i a n c e w hich c o u ld be a c c o u n te d
f o r In t h e c r i t e r i a by t h e r e s p e c t i v e b a t t e r i e s o f
p r e d i c t o r s r e p r e s e n t e d l i t t l e im provem ent o v e r t h a t
p r o v i d e d by t h e b e s t P e a rs o n c o r r e l a t i o n s . C o e f f i c i e n t s
o f M u l t i p l e D e t e r m in a t io n w ere o n ly a s l i g h t am ount
l a r g e r th a n t h e C o e f f i c i e n t s o f D e t e r m in a t io n p r e v i o u s l y
r e p o r t e d f o r two v a r i a b l e r e l a t i o n s h i p s b e tw e e n t h e b e s t
s i n g l e p r e d i c t o r s and t h e same c r i t e r i a . D i f f e r e n c e s
s t a t e d a s p e r c e n t a g e s b e tw e e n e ac h M u l t i p l e C o e f f i c i e n t
o f D e t e r m i n a t i o n and t h e b e s t two v a r i a b l e C o e f f i c i e n t o f
D e t e r m i n a t i o n f o r th e same c r i t e r i o n v a r i e d from .2 8 3 t o
2 3 .9 1 2 and had a mean v a lu e o f 4 . 7 9 3 . T a b le L c o n t a i n s
a r e p o r t o f t h e s e d i f f e r e n c e s .
177
TABLE XLIX.--The increase in p re d ic tiv e e ffic ie n c y achieved "by each
Index of Forecasting E ffic ie n cy based on a m u ltip le c o e f f ic ie n t of
c o rre la tio n when the l a r g e s t Index of F o recasting E ffic ie n cy f o r the
same c r i t e r i o n based on a tw o-variable c o e f fic ie n t of c o rre la tio n
was subtracted from I t
C rite rio n Increase
Social Studies - Communicative A rts 1.021
Social Studies - Mathematics .11+9
Social Studies - Fine Arts 1.106
Social Studies - Foreign Languages
• 3^5
Communicative A rts - Fine Arts 1.510
Social Studies - Physical Sciences
13.891
Physical Sciences - Mathematics 5.863
Communicative Arts - Physical Sciences
.163
Social Studies - Business
.919
178
TABLE L.--The increase achieved by each C o e ffic ie n t of M ultiple
D e tem in a tio n sta te d as a percentage over the la r g e s t C o efficien t of
Deteimination f o r the same c r i t e r i o n s ta te d as a percentage
(100R2 - lOOr2 )
C rite rio n Increase
Social Studies - Communicative Arts 1.938
Social Studies - Mathematics
.283
Social Studies - Fine A rts 2.110
Social Studies - Foreign Languages
.635
Communicative Arts - Fine Arts 2.902
Social Studies - Physical Sciences 23.912
Physical Sciences - Mathematics 9.360
Communicative Arts - Physical Sciences .318
Social Studies - Business I .676
179
A f u l l r e p o r t o f t h e f i n d i n g s In m u l t i p l e p r e d i c t i o n
f o r J u n i o r C o l l e g e "B" I s c o n t a i n e d In T a b le L I .
I I I . BETA WEIGHTS AND MULTIPLE
REGRESSION EQUATIONS
In t h e p r e c e d i n g s e c t i o n , n i n e c o e f f i c i e n t s o f
m u l t i p l e c o r r e l a t i o n w ere fo u n d t o b e s i g n i f i c a n t . B e t a
w e i g h t s w e re th e n co m p uted f o r a l l p r e d i c t o r s u s e d in
t h e n i n e m u l t i p l e c o r r e l a t i o n s . An e x t e n s i o n o f t h e
W h e r r y - D o o l i t t l e T e s t S e l e c t i o n M ethod was em plo yed f o r
t h i s p u r p o s e , and t h e r e s u l t i n g w e i g h t s w ere s t a t e d i n
s t a n d a r d s c o r e fo rm . A l l w e i g h t s a r e g i v e n i n T a b le L I I .
The b e t a w e i g h t s w e re u s e f u l i n two w a y s. F i r s t ,
t h e y made p o s s i b l e t h e c o n s t r u c t i o n o f m u l t i p l e
r e g r e s s i o n e q u a t i o n s by w hich p r e d i c t i o n s o f d i f f e r e n c e s
in g r a d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s c o u ld b e made f o r i n d i v i d u a l
s t u d e n t s . The n i n e e q u a t i o n s w ere:
F o r d i f f e r e n c e s i n S o c i a l S t u d i e s - C o m m u n ic ativ e
A r t s g r a d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s ,
z = , 502z-^ - . 1 7 8 z ^ - , 0 8 6 z g
F o r d i f f e r e n c e s i n S o c i a l S t u d i e s - M a th e m a tic s
g r a d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s ,
~ z = . 2 4 9 z q + . 1 3 8 z l
TABLE L I.—Junior College "B": Multiple coefficients of correlation between two or more predictors
and differences in grade point averages
Differences Predictors R SE , R
est ®R
E 100R2
Social Studies - Communicative Arts
1,
5,
6
.338* 1+.987
.Oi+2
5.879
11.1 + 21+
Social Studies - Mathematics
8,
L
.355* 5.732 .072 6.511 12.603
Social Studies - Fine Arts
6,
SS
• 319* 5.39^
.078 5.226 10.176
Social Studies - Foreign Languages
8,
6 .1 + 01*
5.835 .075 8 . 39^
16.080
Commun. Arts - Fine Arts SS, L
. 305* 5.512 .082
^.763 9.303
Social Studies - Physical Sciences
6,
8 .612*
^.517 .057 20.907 37.1+5^
Physical Sci. - Mathematics
8,
1,
2
. 639* 3.7^5
.056 23.080 1 + 0.832
Commun. Arts - Physical Sciences
i ,
i+
- . 321* M l 5 .085 5.289 10.301+
Social Studies - Business
9,
FL - . 1 + 29*
3.7^7
. 081+
9.667 18.1 + 0 1+
^Significant a t the one per cent level of confidence.
H
03
o
l 8 i
TABLE L I I .- -J u n io r C o lle g e "B": Beta w eig h ts f o r th e r e s p e c tiv e
p r e d ic to r s in n in e m u ltip le r e g r e s s io n eq u a tio n s in v o lv in g c r i t e r i a
baBed on d if f e r e n c e s in grade p o in t avera g es
C r it e r ia P r e d ic to r s Beta W eights
S o c ia l S tu d ie s - Commun. A rts 1 .502
5 - .1 7 8
6 -.086
S o c ia l S tu d ie s - M athem atics 8 .2^9
L .1 3 8
S o c ia l S tu d ies - F in e A rts 6 .236
SS .175
S o c ia l S tu d ie s - F o reig n Languages 8 .29^+
6 .151+
Commun. A rts - F in e A rts SS ,216
L . I 9M
S o c ia l S tu d ie s - P h y s ic a l S c i. ^ - .7 0 6
6 .U36
8 .198
P h y s ic a l S c i. - M athem atics 8 . 9^6
1 -.318
2 -.2 1 3
Commun. A rts - P h y s ic a l S c i. 1 -.2 ^ 6
I t - - .1 2 7
S o c ia l S tu d ies - B u sin e ss 9 -.3 0 1
FL -.1 6 2
182
F o r d i f f e r e n c e s I n S o c i a l S t u d i e s - F i n e A r t s g r a d e
p o i n t a v e r a g e s ,
~ z « . 2 3 6 z g + . 175z s s
F o r d i f f e r e n c e s i n S o c i a l S t u d i e s - F o r e i g n
L a n g u a g e s g r a d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s ,
Z a , 2 9 ^ZQ + . 1 5 ^Z5
F o r d i f f e r e n c e s i n C o m m u n ic a tiv e A r t s - F i n e A r t s
g r a d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s ,
~z = . 2 i 6 z s s + . 1 9 ^ z l
F o r d i f f e r e n c e s i n S o c i a l S t u d i e s - P h y s i c a l
S c i e n c e s g r a d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s ,
2 ■ - , 7 0 6 z ^ + . 436z g + . I 9 8 z g
F o r d i f f e r e n c e s i n P h y s i c a l S c i e n c e s - M a th e m a tic s
g r a d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s ,
*z = . 9^6z q - .SlSz-j^ - ,2 1 3 z 2
F o r d i f f e r e n c e s i n C o m m u n ic a tiv e A r t s - P h y s i c a l
S c i e n c e s g r a d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s ,
“ z = - , 2 4 6 z 2 " . 127zjj
F o r d i f f e r e n c e s i n S o c i a l S t u d i e s - B u s i n e s s g r a d e
p o i n t a v e r a g e s ,
z = - . 3 0 1 z_ - , l 6 2 z
9 FL
S e c o n d , t h e y s e r v e d a s a b a s i s f o r d e t e r m i n i n g t h e
r e l a t i v e c o n t r i b u t i o n s o f t h e i n d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e s t o
t h e i r r e s p e c t i v e c r i t e r i a . The r a t i o b e t w e e n v a r i a b l e s
" l , " " 5 # " a n d ”6 " p r e d i c t i n g d i f f e r e n c e s i n S o c i a l
S t u d i e s - C o m m u n ic a tiv e A r t s g r a d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s w as
5 . 8 4 : 2 . 0 7 ' 1 . 0 0 ; f o r v a r i a b l e s " 8 " a n d " L n p r e d i c t i n g
d i f f e r e n c e s i n S o c i a l S t u d i e s - M a t h e m a t i c s g r a d e p o i n t
a v e r a g e s , 1 .8 0 : 1 . 0 0 ; f o r v a r i a b l e s M 6 ,f a n d f1S S n
p r e d i c t i n g d i f f e r e n c e s i n S o c i a l S t u d i e s - F i n e A r t s
g r a d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s , 1 .3 5 : 1 . 0 0 ; f o r v a r i a b l e s " 8 " a n d
" 6 " p r e d i c t i n g d i f f e r e n c e s i n S o c i a l S t u d i e s - F o r e i g n
L a n g u a g e s g r a d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s , 1 .9 1 • 1 . 0 0 ; f o r
v a r i a b l e s "SS" a n d ttL" p r e d i c t i n g d i f f e r e n c e s i n
C o m m u n ic a tiv e A r t s - F i n e A r t s g r a d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s ,
1 . 1 1 : 1 . 0 0 ; f o r v a r i a b l e s " 4 , " " 6 , " a n d " 8 " p r e d i c t i n g
d i f f e r e n c e s i n S o c i a l S t u d i e s - P h y s i c a l S c i e n c e s g r a d e
p o i n t a v e r a g e s , 3 . 5 7 ’ • 3 .3 0 : 1 . 0 0 ; f o r v a r i a b l e s " 8 , "
" 1 , " a n d " 2 " p r e d i c t i n g d i f f e r e n c e s i n P h y s i c a l
S c i e n c e s - M a t h e m a t i c s g r a d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s , 4 . 4 4 : 1 . 4 9
1 . 0 0 ; f o r v a r i a b l e s " l " a n d " 4 " p r e d i c t i n g d i f f e r e n c e s
i n C o m m u n ic a tiv e A r t s - P h y s i c a l S c i e n c e s g r a d e p o i n t
a v e r a g e s , 2 . 1 7 • 1 . 0 0 ; a n d f o r v a r i a b l e s "9" a n d "FL"
p r e d i c t i n g d i f f e r e n c e s i n S o c i a l S t u d i e s - B u s i n e s s
g r a d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s , 1 . 9 4 : 1 . 0 0 .
184
IV. SUMMARY
C h a p te r V I I was d i v i d e d i n t o t h r e e s e c t i o n s . The
f i r s t was c o n c e rn e d w i t h t w o - v a r i a b l e r e l a t i o n s h i p s
b e tw e e n a s i n g l e p r e d i c t o r and a c r i t e r i o n , t h e se co n d
w i t h m u l t i - v a r i a b l e r e l a t i o n s h i p s b e tw e e n tw o o r more
p r e d i c t o r s and a c r i t e r i o n , and t h e t h i r d w i t h b e t a
w e i g h ts and m u l t i p l e r e g r e s s i o n e q u a t i o n s .
W ith r e g a r d t o s e c t i o n o n e , f o u r t e e n p r e d i c t o r s
w ere fo u n d t o c o r r e l a t e s i g n i f i c a n t l y s i x t y - f o u r tim e s
w i t h e le v e n c r i t e r i a . When s i g n s w ere d i s r e g a r d e d , t h e
s i x t y - f o u r c o r r e l a t i o n s v a r i e d from .100 t o .5 8 1 and h ad
a mean v a lu e o f .2 5 5 . I n t e r p r e t a t i o n s w ere made i n two
w ays, i . e . , by means o f t h e i r I n d i c e s o f F o r e c a s t i n g
E f f i c i e n c y and by m eans o f t h e i r C o e f f i c i e n t s o f
D e t e r m i n a t i o n .
In s e c t i o n tw o , n i n e c o e f f i c i e n t s o f m u l t i p l e
c o r r e l a t i o n w ere r e p o r t e d . A l l w ere s i g n i f i c a n t a t th e
one p e r c e n t l e v e l o f c o n f i d e n c e . The n i n e c o e f f i c i e n t s
r a n g e d In s i z e from .3 0 5 t o .6 3 9 and had a mean v a l u e o f
.4 1 3 . Seven o f t h e n i n e o f f e r e d v e r y l i t t l e Im provem ent
o v e r t h e c o e f f i c i e n t s r e p o r t e d i n s e c t i o n one b e tw e e n t h e
b e s t s i n g l e p r e d i c t o r s and t h e same c r i t e r i a .
In s e c t i o n t h r e e , t w e n ty - o n e b e t a w e i g h t s w ere
p r e s e n t e d a n d , in t u r n , t h e n i n e m u l t i p l e r e g r e s s i o n
e q u a t i o n s t o w h ich t h e y c o n t r i b u t e d w ere s t a t e d i n
s t a n d a r d s c o r e fo rm . An i n t e r p r e t a t i o n was made f o r
e a c h b e t a w e ig h t i n te r m s o f i t s r e l a t i v e c o n t r i b u t i o n
t o t h e c r i t e r i o n w i t h w hich i t was a s s o c i a t e d .
CHAPTER VIII
A REPORT OF THE FINDINGS IN GENERAL
SCHOLASTIC PREDICTION
The f i n d i n g s i n g e n e r a l s c h o l a s t i c p r e d i c t i o n f o r
t h e sa m p le s fro m b o th J u n i o r c o l l e g e s a r e p r e s e n t e d in
t h i s c h a p t e r . The p r i n c i p a l d i f f e r e n c e b e tw e e n t h e
d e s i g n s o f g e n e r a l and d i f f e r e n t i a l s c h o l a s t i c p r e d i c t i o n
was t h a t t h e p r e d i c t o r s and c r i t e r i o n o f t h e f o r m e r w ere
b r o a d e r i n s c o p e . I n s t e a d o f a s e t o f s i x t e e n p r e d i c t o r s
i n w hich e a c h was c o n c e rn e d w ith a r e l a t i v e l y p r e c i s e
a r e a o f a c h ie v e m e n t o r s c h o l a s t i c a p t i t u d e , t h r e e o t h e r s
w ere s u b s t i t u t e d , i . e . , t h e ACE T o t a l S c o r e , t h e ITED
C o m p o site S c o r e , and t h e c u m u l a t i v e g r a d e p o i n t a v e r a g e
f o r c o l l e g e p r e p a r a t o r y c o u r s e s t a k e n i n h ig h s c h o o l , a l l
o f w hich w ere more i n c l u s i v e i n c o n t e n t . I n s t e a d o f a
s e r i e s o f d i f f e r e n c e s f o r c r i t e r i a , e a c h o f w hich was
d e r i v e d by s u b t r a c t i n g a g r a d e p o i n t a v e r a g e f o r c o u r s e s
c o m p le te d i n one s u b j e c t m a t t e r a r e a from a n o t h e r g r a d e
p o i n t a v e r a g e f o r c o u r s e s c o m p le te d i n a se c o n d s u b j e c t
m a t t e r a r e a , a b r o a d e r c r i t e r i o n was s u b s t i t u t e d w hich
was b a s e d on s t u d e n t s ' c u m u l a t i v e g r a d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s
f o r a l l u n i v e r s i t y p a r a l l e l c o u r s e s c o m p le te d i n J u n i o r
c o l l e g e .
187
The c h a p t e r I s d i v i d e d i n t o two s e c t i o n s . The
f i r s t c o n c e r n s t h e f i n d i n g s f o r t h e Bample fro m J u n i o r
C o l l e g e "A" a n d t h e s e c o n d c o n c e r n s t h e f i n d i n g s f o r t h e
s a m p le fro m J u n i o r C o l l e g e " B ."
I . THE FINDINGS IN GENERAL SCHOLASTIC
PREDICTION FOR THE SAMPLE FROM
JUNIOR COLLEGE "A"
C o e f f i c i e n t s o f c o r r e l a t i o n b e tw e e n t h e c r i t e r i o n
an d e a c h o f t h e t h r e e p r e d i c t o r s w e re a l l s i g n i f i c a n t a t
t h e one p e r c e n t l e v e l o f c o n f i d e n c e . The b e s t
p r e d i c t i o n was p r o v i d e d by h i g h s c h o o l c u m u l a t i v e g r a d e
p o i n t a v e r a g e , i . e . , .6 0 8 . At t h i s v a l u e , a l m o s t t h i r t y -
s e v e n p e r c e n t o f t h e v a r i a n c e i n t h e c r i t e r i o n was
a c c o u n t e d f o r an d p r e d i c t i v e e f f i c i e n c y was o b t a i n e d
s l i g h t l y g r e a t e r t h a n t w e n t y p e r c e n t i n e x c e s s o f
c h a n c e . The c l o s e s t c o m p e t i t o r among t h e o t h e r
p r e d i c t o r s , i . e . , ITED "C" ( r , . 3 6 5) * 1 c o u l d a c c o u n t f o r
o n l y t h i r t e e n p e r c e n t o f t h e v a r i a n c e I n t h e c r i t e r i o n
and o f f e r e d p r e d i c t i v e e f f i c i e n c y o f a p p r o x i m a t e l y s e v e n
p e r c e n t i n e x c e s s o f c h a n c e . T a b le L I I I c o n t a i n s a
r e p o r t o f t h e c o r r e l a t i o n s t o g e t h e r w i t h r e l a t e d I n d i c e s
■ ’ 'C o m p o s ite S c o r e , Iowa T e s t s o f E d u c a t i o n a l
D e v e lo p m e n t.
188
TABLE L I I I .--C o e ffic ie n ts o f c o r r e la tio n Between s in g le p red icto rs
and stu d e n ts' cum ulative grade p o in t averages fo r u n iv e r sity
p a r a lle l courses completed a t Junior C ollege "A "
P red ictor r E lOOr2
High School Cumulative
Grade Point Average .608 20.606 36.966
ITED "C "
• 365b
6.801
13.323
A C E "T "
.3 l l b
1 + .941 9.672
^ S ig n ific a n t a t the one per cent le v e l o f con fid en ce.
189
o f F o r e c a s t i n g E f f i c i e n c y and C o e f f i c i e n t s o f
D e t e r m i n a t i o n .
A m u l t i p l e c o r r e l a t i o n b e tw een t h e c r i t e r i o n and
th e b e s t c o m b in a tio n o f h ig h s c h o o l c u m u la tiv e g ra d e
p o i n t a v e ra g e and ITED ,fC" y i e l d e d a c o e f f i c i e n t o f .6 2 1 .
T h is v a lu e was s i g n i f i c a n t a t t h e one p e r c e n t l e v e l o f
c o n f i d e n c e and was e s t i m a t e d by t h e W h e r r y - D o o l i t t l e
T e s t S e l e c t i o n Method (1 0 :4 3 5 - 4 5 1 , 1 1 : 4 4 7 - 4 4 8 ) . No
p
a d v a n ta g e was d e r i v e d by a d d in g ACE "T" t o th e
p r e d i c t i v e b a t t e r y b e c a u s e t h e c h an ce e r r o r i n t r o d u c e d
w ith i t s I n c l u s i o n o v e r b a la n c e d th e in c re m e n t in th e
m u l t i p l e c o r r e l a t i o n w hich would o t h e r w i s e have been
a c h i e v e d . When com pared w ith t h e P e a rs o n c o r r e l a t i o n
betw een th e b e s t s i n g l e p r e d i c t o r and th e c r i t e r i o n , th e
m u l t i p l e R v a lu e o f .621 r e p r e s e n t e d , f i r s t , an
im provem ent in p r e d i c t i v e e f f i c i e n c y o v e r chan ce o f
a p p r o x i m a t e ly one p e r c e n t a n d , se c o n d , an i n c r e a s e in
th e c r i t e r i o n v a r i a n c e w hich c o u ld be a c c o u n te d f o r o f
a b o u t one and a h a l f p e r c e n t .
B e ta w e ig h ts w ere th e n com puted f o r th e two
p r e d i c t o r s u se d In th e m u l t i p l e c o r r e l a t i o n and a
m u l t i p l e r e g r e s s i o n e q u a t io n was c o n s t r u c t e d . W ith th e
2
T o t a l S c o r e , Am erican C o u n c il on E d u c a tio n
P s y c h o l o g i c a l E x a m in a tio n f o r C o lle g e F reshm en.
190
beta weights stated in standard score form, the equation
was:
z = .i)49zH-S- + .1 3 3 z c
The relative contribution of the two predictors to the
criterion was 4 .1 3 : 1 . 0 0 .
II. THE FINDINGS IN GENERAL SCHOLASTIC
PREDICTION FOR THE SAMPLE FROM
JUNIOR COLLEGE "B"
All coefficients of correlation between the
criterion and the three predictors were significant at
the one per cent level of confidence. As was the case
for the sample from Junior College "A," the best
prediction was provided by high school cumulative grade
point average, I.e., .5 4 4 . At this value, almost thirty
per cent of the variance in the criterion was accounted
for and predictive efficiency was obtained at sixteen
per cent in excess of chance. Intercorrelations between
this predictor and the others were relatively low. The
closest competitor among the other predictors was
ACE ttT" (r, .4 7 8 ) which, In addition, correlated
relatively well with ITED "C.M Table LIV contains a
report of the correlations together with related Indices
of Forecasting Efficiency and Coefficients of
Determination.
191
TABLE LIV.—C o e ffic ie n ts o f c o r r e la tio n between s in g le p r ed icto r s
and stu d e n ts' cum ulative grade p o in t averages fo r u n iv e r s ity
p a r a lle l cou rses com pleted a t Ju n ior C ollege "B"
Predictor r E 100r2
High School Cumulative ,
Grade Point Average .544“ 16.091 29.594
A C E " T " .478b 12.164 22.848
ITED " C " .472b 11.840 22.278
^Significant at the one per cent lev el of confidence.
192
The multiple correlation between the criterion and
the best combination of all three predictors was .6 3 2.
This value was significant at the one per cent level of
confidence and was estimated by the Wherry-Doolittle Test
Selection Method. When compared with the Pearson
correlation between the best single predictor and the
criterion, the multiple R value represented, first, an
improvement in predictive efficiency over chance of
about six and a half per cent and, second, an increase
in the criterion variance which could be accounted for
of approximately three per cent.
Beta weights were then computed for each predictor
and a multiple regression equation was constructed. With
the beta weights stated in standard score form, the
equation was:
z- s . J+ l 6 z ^ >g 4 + . 2 3 7z t + . 1 3 1 2 c
The relative contributions of the three predictors to the
criterion were 3 . 1 8 : 1 .8l : 1 .0 0 .
III. SUMMARY
The findings in general scholastic prediction were
presented In this chapter with Information regarding
each of the two junior college samples presented
separately.
193
T h re e p r e d i c t o r s w ere uB ed: C u m u la tiv e g r a d e
p o i n t a v e r a g e f o r c o l l e g e p r e p a r a t o r y c o u r s e s c o m p le te d
i n h i g h s c h o o l , t h e ITED C o m p o site S c o r e , a n d t h e ACE
T o t a l S c o r e . The c u m u l a t i v e g r a d e p o i n t a v e r a g e f o r
u n i v e r s i t y p a r a l l e l c o u r s e s t a k e n i n J u n i o r c o l l e g e was
t h e c r i t e r i o n .
The b e s t s i n g l e p r e d i c t o r o f t h e c r i t e r i o n f o r b o t h
J u n i o r c o l l e g e s a m p le s was t h e c u m u l a t i v e g r a d e p o i n t
a v e r a g e f o r c o l l e g e p r e p a r a t o r y c o u r s e s t a k e n i n h i g h
s c h o o l . The c o e f f i c i e n t s o f c o r r e l a t i o n w ere .6 0 8 and
.5 4 4 f o r J u n i o r c o l l e g e s "A" and "B" r e s p e c t i v e l y . The
m u l t i p l e c o r r e l a t i o n f o r J u n i o r C o l le g e "A ," b a s e d on
t h e b e s t c o m b i n a t i o n o f t h e a f o r e m e n t i o n e d p r e d i c t o r
a n d ITED " C , " was .6 2 1 , a n i n c r e a s e i n p r e d i c t i v e
e f f i c i e n c y o f a p p r o x i m a t e l y one p e r c e n t o v e r t h a t
p r o v i d e d by t h e b e s t s i n g l e p r e d i c t o r . The m u l t i p l e
c o r r e l a t i o n f o r J u n i o r C o l le g e riB , " b a s e d on t h e b e s t
c o m b i n a t i o n o f a l l t h r e e p r e d i c t o r s , was . 6 3 2 , a n
i n c r e a s e i n p r e d i c t i v e e f f i c i e n c y o f a b o u t s i x an d a h a l f
p e r c e n t o v e r t h a t o f f e r e d b y t h e b e s t s i n g l e p r e d i c t o r .
A l l o f t h e c o e f f i c i e n t s c i t e d i n t h i s p a r a g r a p h w ere
s i g n i f i c a n t a t t h e one p e r c e n t l e v e l o f c o n f i d e n c e .
The sections for both Junior colleges closed with
the presentation of beta weights and multiple regression
194
e q u a t i o n s . F o r t h e s a m p l e f r o m J u n i o r C o l l e g e " A , ,f a n
a n a l y s i s o f t h e b e t a w e i g h t s i n d i c a t e d t h a t t h e
c o n t r i b u t i o n s t o t h e c r i t e r i o n o f h i g h s c h o o l c u m u l a t i v e
g r a d e p o i n t a v e r a g e a n d ITED "C" w e r e o n r o u g h l y a
4 : 1 r a t i o . By c o m p a r i s o n , t h e c o n t r i b u t i o n s t o t h e
c r i t e r i o n o f h i g h s c h o o l c u m u l a t i v e g r a d e p o i n t a v e r a g e ,
ACE " T , " a n d ITED "C" f o r t h e s a m p le f r o m J u n i o r
C o l l e g e "B" w e r e o n a n a p p r o x i m a t e 3 : 2 : 1 r a t i o .
CHAPTER IX
SUMMARY, CONCLUSIONS, AND RECOMMENDATIONS
I. SUMMARY
The problem in this study was to determine how well
the Iowa Tests of Educational Development, the American
Council on Education Psychological Examination for
College Freshmen, and grade point averages based on high
school marks received in six areas of college preparatory
subject matter could predict two types of criteria. In
order of Importance the criteria were: Differences
between grade point averages in each of nine areas of
university parallel subject matter completed in Junior
college; and, cumulative grade point averages for all
university parallel course work completed in junior
college. The nine areas of university parallel subject
matter were: Biological Sciences, Business, Communicative
Arts, Fine Arts, Foreign Languages, Mathematics, Physical
Sciences, Secretarial Science, and Social Studies.
The seven delimitations imposed upon all students
were: Attendance at a Los Angeles senior high school for
at least four semesters; completion of the ITED as a
second semester twelfth grade student in the spring of
1 9 6
1 9 5^ o r 1 9 5 6 ; g r a d u a t i o n f ro m a L o s A n g e l e s s e n i o r h i g h
s c h o o l I n t h e s p r i n g o f 19 5 4 o r 1 9 5 6 ; I n i t i a l e n r o l l m e n t
a t e i t h e r o f tw o J u n i o r c o l l e g e s i n t h e sum m er o r f a l l o f
19 5 4 o r 1 9 5 6 ; c o m p l e t i o n o f t h e ACE (1 9 5 2 e d i t i o n ) u p o n
e n t r y ; a t t e n d a n c e f o r a t l e a s t tw o s e m e s t e r s ; a n d
c o m p l e t i o n o f a t l e a s t tw o c o u r s e s t o t a l i n g a m inim um o f
f o u r u n i t s i n e a c h o f tw o o r m ore o f t h e n i n e s u b j e c t
m a t t e r a r e a s i n t o w h ic h u n i v e r s i t y p a r a l l e l c o u r s e w o rk
w as d i v i d e d .
T he p u r p o s e o f t h e s t u d y w as t o e v a l u a t e c e r t a i n
e d u c a t i o n a l d a t a w h ic h w e re a v a i l a b l e on m o s t s t u d e n t s
i n t h e L o s A n g e l e s c i t y s c h o o l s an d w h ic h w e re c o n s u l t e d
r e g u l a r l y b y s t a f f c o u n s e l o r s when h e l p i n g s t u d e n t s p l a n
t h e i r J u n i o r c o l l e g e c u r r i c u l a . T h e s e d a t a w e r e : A
b a t t e r y o f h i g h s c h o o l a c h i e v e m e n t t e s t s , a t e s t o f
c o l l e g i a t e s c h o l a s t i c a p t i t u d e , an d h i g h s c h o o l g r a d e
p o i n t a v e r a g e s b a s e d on m a rk s r e c e i v e d i n s i x a r e a s o f
c o l l e g e p r e p a r a t o r y s u b j e c t m a t t e r . A l l t h r e e w e re
a v a i l a b l e on m o s t e n t e r i n g s t u d e n t s a t L os A n g e l e s c i t y
J u n i o r c o l l e g e s when t h e s t u d y w as b e g u n .
T he i n v e s t i g a t i o n w as c o n s i d e r e d t o b e i m p o r t a n t
b e c a u s e i t r e p r e s e n t e d a r e s e a r c h o r i e n t e d a t t e m p t t o
h e l p J u n i o r c o l l e g e c o u n s e l o r s im p r o v e t h e q u a l i t y o f
t h e i r s e r v i c e when c o n f r o n t e d w i t h tw o r e c u r r i n g
q u e s t i o n s : F i r s t , "Am I c a p a b l e o f s u c c e e d i n g i n
197
university parallel types of courses as offered at this
Junior college?" And, second, "If I do have a reasonable
chance of succeeding In such courses, in which subject
matter areas will I likely do my best?" Upon receiving
such questions, the typical procedure among most
counselors has been, first, to explore in greater detail
the reasons for the student's interest in this information
by asking pertinent questions and, second, to search the
student's personnel folder for available test scores and
the transcript of his high school courses and marks.
Then, with this Information at his disposal, the
counselor usually proceeded by presenting and
interpreting the data in light of the student's
question(s) and various related points covered during the
discussion. Judgments made by the counselor during the
interpretive phase of the Interview were generally
grounded on personal opinion and experience and were
seldom substantiated by the findings of educational
research. The importance of this study, then, was that
it sought to determine and to Justify In research the
interpretations which counselors could legitimately make
from these data when giving counsel regarding the
aforementioned questions.
The sa m p le fro m J u n i o r C o l l e g e "A" c o n t a i n e d 39 5
s t u d e n t s , 223 o f whom w e re men an d 172 o f whom w e re women.
198
By c o m p a r i s o n , t h e s a m p le fro m J u n i o r C o l l e g e "B"
c o n t a i n e d 640 s t u d e n t s , 3^2 o f whom w e re men a n d 2 9 8 o f
whom w e re women. F i f t e e n h i g h s c h o o l s w e re r e p r e s e n t e d
i n t h e f o r m e r w h i l e s i x t e e n w e re r e p r e s e n t e d i n t h e l a t t e r .
S e v e r a l s t a t i s t i c a l l y s i g n i f i c a n t d i f f e r e n c e s w e re
u n c o v e r e d b e t w e e n t h e two s a m p l e s . F i r s t , d i f f e r e n c e s
b e t w e e n t h e i r m ean s c o r e s on t h e t h r e e ACE s c a l e s w e re
a l l s i g n i f i c a n t a t t h e o ne p e r c e n t l e v e l o f c o n f i d e n c e ,
t h e m ean v a l u e s f o r J u n i o r C o l l e g e "A" b e i n g t h e h i g h e r
i n a l l c a s e s . S e c o n d , d i f f e r e n c e s b e t w e e n t h e i r m ean
s c o r e s o n t h e t e n ITED s c a l e s w e re a l l s i g n i f i c a n t a t t h e
o n e p e r c e n t l e v e l o f c o n f i d e n c e , t h e m ean v a l u e s f o r
J u n i o r C o l l e g e "A" e x c e e d i n g t h o s e f o r J u n i o r C o l l e g e "B"
i n a l l c a s e s . T h i r d , d i f f e r e n c e s b e t w e e n t h e i r m ean
h i g h s c h o o l g r a d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s w e re s i g n i f i c a n t f o r
t h r e e o f t h e s i x s u b j e c t m a t t e r c a t e g o r i e s , i n two o f
w h ic h t h e h i g h e r m ean v a l u e s w e re e a r n e d b y t h e s a m p le
fro m J u n i o r C o l l e g e "B" a n d i n t h e o t h e r b y t h e s a m p le
f ro m J u n i o r C o l l e g e " A ."
Three predictors were used in the portion of the
study devoted to general scholastic prediction. They
were: The ACE Total Score, the ITED Composite Score, and
the cumulative grade point average for college preparatory
courses completed In five areas of high school subject
matter (English-jouraalism-speech, social studies,
199
s c i e n c e s , m a t h e m a t i c s , an d f o r e i g n l a n g u a g e s ) . T h e s e
p r e d i c t o r s w e re r e l a t i v e l y b r o a d i n s c o p e and w e re b a s e d
on a v a r i e t y o f c o n c e p t s a n d i n f o r m a t i o n d raw n f ro m
s e v e r a l s u b j e c t m a t t e r f i e l d s . By c o n t r a s t , t h e s i x t e e n
p r e d i c t o r s u t i l i z e d i n t h e i n v e s t i g a t i o n o f d i f f e r e n t i a l
s c h o l a s t i c p r e d i c t i o n w e re m ore p r e c i s e an d w e re
c o n c e r n e d w i t h s p e c i f i c a r e a s o f a c h i e v e m e n t and
s c h o l a s t i c a p t i t u d e . T h ey w e r e : The Q u a n t i t a t i v e and
L i n g u i s t i c s u b - t e s t s o f t h e ACE, t h e n i n e a c h i e v e m e n t
t e s t s o f t h e ITED, an d t h e g r a d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s f o r e a c h
o f t h e a f o r e m e n t i o n e d f i v e a r e a s o f c o l l e g e p r e p a r a t o r y
c o u r s e w o rk o f f e r e d i n h i g h s c h o o l .
The c r i t e r i o n f o r g e n e r a l s c h o l a s t i c p r e d i c t i o n was
t h e c u m u l a t i v e g r a d e p o i n t a v e r a g e f o r a l l c o u r s e s
c o m p l e t e d i n n i n e a r e a s o f u n i v e r s i t y p a r a l l e l s u b j e c t
m a t t e r . The a r e a s w e r e : B i o l o g i c a l S c i e n c e s , B u s i n e s s ,
C o m m u n ic a tiv e A r t s , F i n e A r t s , F o r e i g n L a n g u a g e s ,
M a t h e m a t i c s , P h y s i c a l S c i e n c e s , S e c r e t a r i a l S c i e n c e , and
S o c i a l S t u d i e s . On t h e o t h e r h a n d , t h e c r i t e r i a f o r
d i f f e r e n t i a l s c h o l a s t i c p r e d i c t i o n w e re t h e d i f f e r e n c e s
b e tw e e n g r a d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s i n p a i r s o f s u b j e c t m a t t e r
a r e a s , e . g . , t h e d i f f e r e n c e s b e tw e e n s t u d e n t s ' g r a d e
p o i n t a v e r a g e s i n S o c i a l S t u d i e s c o u r s e s a n d P h y s i c a l
S c i e n c e c o u r s e s . A d i f f e r e n c e w as d e r i v e d by s u b t r a c t i n g
a s t u d e n t ' s a v e r a g e i n t h e s e c o n d nam ed s u b j e c t fro m h i 3
2 0 0
a v e r a g e i n t h e f i r s t nam ed s u b j e c t . A p o s i t i v e
r e m a i n d e r i n d i c a t e d t h a t t h e a v e r a g e f o r t h e f i r s t nam ed
s u b j e c t e x c e e d e d t h a t f o r t h e s e c o n d n a m e d , w h i l e a
n e g a t i v e r e m a i n d e r i n d i c a t e d t h a t t h e a v e r a g e f o r t h e
s e c o n d n a m e d s u b j e c t e x c e e d e d t h a t f o r t h e f i r s t n a m e d .
F o r e a c h o f t h e s a m p l e s , t h e p o o l o f p o t e n t i a l
c r i t e r i a c o n s i s t e d o f t h i r t y - s i x p o s s i b i l i t i e s . T h i s
v a l u e r e p r e s e n t e d t h e m axim um n u m b e r o f c o m b i n a t i o n s
w h i c h c o u l d b e m ade w i t h t h e n i n e s u b j e c t m a t t e r a r e a s .
To b e c o n s i d e r e d a c c e p t a b l e f o r u s e i n d i f f e r e n t i a l
s c h o l a s t i c p r e d i c t i o n , a c r i t e r i o n h a d t o m e e t tw o
c o n d i t i o n s . F i r s t , e i g h t y o r m o re s t u d e n t s h a d t o h a v e
c o m p l e t e d a t l e a s t tw o o r m o re c o u r s e s w o r t h a c o m b in e d
m inim um o f f o u r u n i t s i n e a c h o f t h e tw o p a i r e d s u b j e c t
m a t t e r a r e a s on w h i c h t h e c r i t e r i o n w as b a s e d . S e c o n d ,
t h e P e a r s o n c o e f f i c i e n t o f c o r r e l a t i o n b e t w e e n t h e
s t u d e n t s ’ g r a d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s i n t h e tw o p a i r e d s u b j e c t
m a t t e r a r e a s h a d t o b e l e s s t h a n . 8 0 . E a c h o f t h e
t h i r t y - s i x c r i t e r i a i n b o t h s a m p l e s w e r e t e s t e d a g a i n s t
t h e s e c o n d i t i o n s a n d , a s a c o n s e q u e n c e , t w e n t y - s i x o f
t h e c r i t e r i a f o r t h e s a m p l e f r o m J u n i o r C o l l e g e " A ” a n d
t w e n t y - f o u r o f t h e c r i t e r i a f o r t h e s a m p l e f r o m J u n i o r
C o l l e g e "B" h a d t o b e r e j e c t e d . T h u s , t h e n u m b e r s o f
u s e f u l c r i t e r i a w h i c h r e m a i n e d w e r e t e n a n d t w e l v e
r e s p e c t i v e l y f o r t h e J u n i o r C o l l e g e "A" a n d "B" s a m p l e s .
20 1
The computations required In that portion of the
study concerned with general scholastic prediction fell
Into three parts, with data from each of the samples
receiving separate treatment. First, Pearson
correlations were computed between each predictor and
each of the two criteria. Second, coefficients of
multiple correlation were computed between the best
combinations of all three predictors and each criterion
using the Wherry-Doolittle method. And, third, multiple
regression equations were prepared utilizing all
predictors.
The computational plan used with differential
scholastic prediction was basically similar, with data
from the two samples likewise receiving separate
treatment. Pearson correlations were computed between
each criterion and each of the sixteen predictors. Then,
multiple correlations were computed between each
criterion and the best combination of those predictors
which had correlated significantly with it in two-
variable correlations. Finally, beta weights were
calculated for use in establishing multiple regression
equations. Multiple correlations and beta weights were
computed by the Wherry-Doolittle method.
2 0 2
The f i n d i n g s i n t h a t p o r t i o n o f t h e s t u d y d e v o te d
t o g e n e r a l s c h o l a s t i c p r e d i c t i o n w e r e :
1. The b e s t B i n g le p r e d i c t o r o f t h e c r i t e r i o n i n
b o t h J u n i o r c o l l e g e s a m p le s was t h e c u m u l a t i v e
g r a d e p o i n t a v e r a g e f o r c o l l e g e p r e p a r a t o r y
c o u r s e s t a k e n i n h i g h s c h o o l . The c o e f f i c i e n t s
o f c o r r e l a t i o n w ere .6 0 8 an d .5 4 4 f o r J u n i o r
C o l l e g e s "A" and "B" r e s p e c t i v e l y .
2. The two o t h e r p r e d i c t o r s , ITED !IC" a n d ACE r,T, "
c o r r e l a t e d w i t h t h e J u n i o r C o l le g e "A"
c r i t e r i o n a t .3 6 5 and .3 1 1 a n d w i t h t h e J u n i o r
C o l l e g e "B" c r i t e r i o n a t .4 7 2 and .4 7 8 .
I n t e r c o r r e l a t i o n s b e tw e e n them w ere .7 5 3 and
.7 7 7 f o r t h e two s a m p le s . By c o m p a r is o n , t h e
f o u r c o r r e l a t i o n s b e tw e e n t h e s e p r e d i c t o r s and
t h e r e s p e c t i v e h i g h s c h o o l c u m u l a t i v e g r a d e
p o i n t a v e r a g e s i n c o l l e g e p r e p a r a t o r y c o u r s e s
w ere c o n s i d e r a b l y l o w e r , e x t e n d i n g fro m .3 3 0
t o .4 0 0 .
3. A m u l t i p l e c o r r e l a t i o n o f .6 2 1 was d e r i v e d fro m
d a t a i n t h e sa m p le f o r J u n i o r C o l l e g e "A"
b e tw e e n t h e c r i t e r i o n a n d t h e b e s t c o m b i n a t i o n
o f two o f t h e t h r e e p r e d i c t o r s , i . e . , h i g h
s c h o o l c u m u l a t i v e g r a d e p o i n t a v e r a g e an d
ITED " C . M T h is c o e f f i c i e n t r e p r e s e n t e d an
i n c r e a s e i n p r e d i c t i v e e f f i c i e n c y o f
a p p r o x i m a t e l y one p e r c e n t o v e r t h a t p r o v id e d
b y th e b e s t s i n g l e p r e d i c t o r .
4. An analysis of the beta weights for the Bample
from Junior College "AM indicated that the
contributions to the criterion by high Bchool
cumulative grade point average and ITED r,C"
were on roughly a 4 : 1 ratio.
5. A m u l t i p l e c o r r e l a t i o n o f .632 was d e r i v e d from
d a ta i n th e sam ple f o r J u n i o r C o lle g e "B"
b e tw e e n th e c r i t e r i o n and th e b e s t c o m b in a tio n
o f th e t h r e e p r e d i c t o r s . T h is c o e f f i c i e n t
r e p r e s e n t e d an i n c r e a s e i n p r e d i c t i v e
e f f i c i e n c y o f a p p r o x i m a t e ly s i x and a h a l f p e r
c e n t o v e r t h a t p r o v id e d by th e b e s t s i n g l e
p r e d i c t o r .
6 . R e l a t i v e c o n t r i b u t i o n s t o th e c r i t e r i o n by h i g h
s c h o o l c u m u la tiv e g r a d e p o i n t a v e r a g e , ACE " T , ”
and ITED "C" f o r th e sam ple from J u n i o r
C o lle g e "B" w ere on a n a p p ro x im a te 3 : 2 : 1
r a t i o .
The f i n d i n g s i n d i f f e r e n t i a l s c h o l a s t i c prediction
f o r J u n i o r C o lle g e "A" w ere:
Among the 160 two-variable correlations between
the sixteen predictors and the ten criteria,
twenty-four were found to be significant at the
five per cent level of confidence or better.
When signs were disregarded, they ranged from
.12 0 to .33 8 and had a mean value of .2 3 4 .
Thirteen predictors and nine criteria were
involved. Interpretations were made in three
ways: By direct visual inspection, by the
Index of Forecasting Efficiency (E) and by
O
the Coefficient of Determination (r ). The
twenty-four Indices of Forecasting Efficiency
extended from O.72 to 5 .8 8 per cent and had a
mean value of 2 . 9 7 Per cent, while the twenty-
four Coefficients of Determination, converted
to percentages, extended from 1 .4 4 0 per cent to
1 1 .4 2 4 per cent and had a mean value of 5 .8 3 4
per cent.
Significant two-variable correlations were
obtained two or more times with each of seven
criteria and, in turn, multiple correlations
were computed in each case. Three of the seven
multiple correlations were later discarded, one
because it failed to meet the five per cent
level of confidence, another because it
2 0 5
remained static at the same value as the best
two-variable correlation when the third
variable was added, and the third because the
amount of chance error introduced with the
addition of the third variable caused a
decrease in predictive efficiency over that
which was already known to exist in the best
two-variable correlation with that criterion.
When signs were disregarded, the four remaining
multiple correlations ranged from .2 8 8 through
.321. Differences between the four multi-
variable Indices of Forecasting Efficiency and
the best two-variable Indices of Forecasting
Efficiency for the same criteria varied from
.0 5 8 through 1.201 per cent. Also, differences
between the four multi-variable Coefficients of
Determination and the best two-variable
Coefficients of Determination for the same
criteria, stated as percentages, varied from
.114 through 2.295 per cent. In general, the
bases for prediction provided by the best two-
variable correlations were almost as promising
as those offered by the corresponding multiple
correlations.
3. Beta weights were computed for all predictors
in these four multiple correlations, first, to
make possible the construction of regression
equations by which to predict differences in
grade point averages for individual students
and, second, to determine the relative
contributions of independent variables to their
respective criteria. With regard to the second
purpose, the largest ratio between predictors
for a given criterion was 1.69 : 1.00, Thus,
no marked differences were encountered between
the contributions of the various criteria to a
particular criterion.
The findings in differential scholastic prediction
for Junior College "B" were:
1. Among the 192 two-variable correlations between
the sixteen predictors and the twelve criteria,
sixty-four were found to be significant at the
five per cent level of confidence or better.
When signs were disregarded, they ranged from
.100 through .5 6 1 and had a mean value of .2 5 5*
Fourteen predictors and eleven criteria were
involved. The sixty-four Indices of Forecasting
Efficiency extended from . 501 through 17.217
per cent and had a mean value of 3 . 6 7 9 per cent,
w h i l e th e s i x t y - f o u r C o e f f i c i e n t s o f
D e t e r m i n a t i o n , c o n v e r t e d t o p e r c e n t a g e s ,
e x te n d e d fro m 1 .0 0 0 th r o u g h 3 1 .4 7 2 p e r c e n t and
h a d a mean v a lu e o f 7 .1 1 2 p e r c e n t . When
com pared w i t h t h e f i n d i n g s I n t w o - v a r i a b l e
c o r r e l a t i o n f o r J u n i o r C o lle g e "A ," t h o s e f o r
J u n i o r C o lle g e "B” w ere s l i g h t l y b e t t e r b o t h
w i t h r e g a r d t o mean I n d i c e s o f F o r e c a s t i n g
E f f i c i e n c y and w i t h r e g a r d t o mean C o e f f i c i e n t s
o f D e t e r m i n a t i o n .
S i g n i f i c a n t t w o - v a r l a b l e c o r r e l a t i o n s w ere
o b t a i n e d two o r more t im e s w i t h e a c h o f t e n
c r i t e r i a a n d , I n t u r n , m u l t i p l e c o r r e l a t i o n s
w ere com puted i n e a c h c a s e . One o f t h e t e n
m u l t i p l e c o r r e l a t i o n s was l a t e r d i s c a r d e d
b e c a u s e th e am ount o f c h a n c e e r r o r I n t r o d u c e d
w i t h th e a d d i t i o n o f th e t h i r d v a r i a b l e
c a u s e d a d e c r e a s e i n p r e d i c t i v e e f f i c i e n c y o v e r
t h a t a l r e a d y known t o e x i s t i n th e b e s t tw o -
v a r i a b l e c o r r e l a t i o n i n v o l v i n g t h a t c r i t e r i o n .
When s i g n s w ere d i s r e g a r d e d , t h e n i n e r e m a in i n g
m u l t i p l e c o r r e l a t i o n s v a r i e d fro m .30 5 t h r o u g h
.6 3 9 and had a mean v a lu e o f .4 1 3 . D i f f e r e n c e s
b e tw e e n th e I n d i c e s o f F o r e c a s t i n g E f f i c i e n c y
b a s e d on m u l t i p l e c o r r e l a t i o n s and t h o s e b a s e d
2 0 8
on t h e b e s t P e a r s o n c o r r e l a t i o n s f o r t h e same
c r i t e r i a v a r i e d fro m .1 4 9 t h r o u g h 1 3 .8 9 1 p e r
c e n t and h a d a mean v a l u e o f 2.77** p e r c e n t .
D i f f e r e n c e s b e tw e e n C o e f f i c i e n t s o f M u l t i p l e
D e t e r m i n a t i o n and t h e l a r g e s t C o e f f i c i e n t s o f
D e t e r m i n a t i o n f o r t h e same c r i t e r i a , a l l s t a t e d
a s p e r c e n t a g e s , v a r i e d fro m .283 t o 2 3 .9 1 2 p e r
c e n t and had a mean v a l u e o f 4 .7 9 3 p e r c e n t .
In g e n e r a l , o n l y s m a ll im p ro v e m e n ts w e re
a c h i e v e d th r o u g h t h e c a l c u l a t i o n o f m u l t i p l e
c o r r e l a t i o n s , e i t h e r In te r m s o f p r e d i c t i v e
e f f i c i e n c y o r In t e r m s o f t h e am ount o f
c r i t e r i o n v a r i a n c e a c c o u n t e d f o r .
3 . B e t a w e i g h t s w ere co m p uted f o r a l l p r e d i c t o r s
w h ic h a p p e a r e d In t h e n i n e m u l t i p l e c o r r e l a t i o n s .
The r a t i o s by w h ic h p r e d i c t o r s o f t h e v a r i o u s
c r i t e r i a c o n t r i b u t e d t o t h o s e c r i t e r i a e x c e e d e d
2 : 1 I n f o u r c a s e s , e x c e e d e d 3 : 1 i n t h r e e
c a s e s , and e x c e e d e d 4 : 1 i n two c a s e s .
Among t h e s i g n i f i c a n t t w o - v a r i a b l e r e l a t i o n s h i p s
o b t a i n e d I n t h i s s t u d y , e i g h t e e n a p p e a r e d i n b o t h s a m p le s .
A t o t a l o f n i n e p r e d i c t o r s and s e v e n c r i t e r i a w ere
i n v o l v e d , A l i s t o f t h e s e r e l a t i o n s h i p s i s p r e s e n t e d i n
T a b le LV, and t h e same i n f o r m a t i o n , o r g a n i z e d a c c o r d i n g
209
TABLE LV.— The significant two-variable relationships involving
differential criteria which were obtained in both Junior college
samples
Predictor Criterion
L Social Studies - Mathematics
L Social Studies - Fine Arte
1 Social Studies - Foreign Languages
1 Communicative Arts - Physical Sciences
1 Social Studies - Communicative Arts
2 Social Studies - Foreign Languages
2 Communicative Arts - Foreign Languages
2 Social Studies - Communicative Arts
k Social Studies - Foreign Languages
k Social Studies - Communicative Arts
5
Communicative Arts - Physical Sciences
5
Social Studies - Fine Arts
5
Social Studies - Communicative Arts
6 Social Studies - Mathematics
6 Social Studies - Communicative Arts
7
Social Studies - Mathematics
8 Social Studies - Mathematics
SS Communicative Arts - Fine Arts
2 10
to those predictors which correlated significantly with
each of the seven criteria, is presented in Table LVT.
II. CONCLUSIONS
Conclusions regarding the findings of thiB study
are organized in three sections: Those which relate to
general scholastic prediction, those which relate to
differential scholastic prediction, and those which relate
to matters of general concern.
General scholastic prediction
The findings gave added Bupport to the generally
accepted consensus that high school cumulative grade
point averages, whether based on marlcB received in all
courses or only on those received in college preparatory
courses, are the best single predictors of scholastic
success during the first two years of university study.
With respect to Junior Colleges "A" and "B," the results
of this investigation indicate that staff counselors at
the two schools can conclude, with assurance twenty and
sixteen per cent in excess of chance, that students who
had high grade point averages In their college preparatory
courses will likely continue to earn high grade point
averages in university parallel courses and that students
who had low grade point averages in their college
211
TABLE L V I.--D iffe r e n tia l c r it e r ia w ith which c e r ta in p r e d ic tiv e
v a r ia b le s c o r re la te d s ig n if ic a n t ly in both ju n ior c o lle g e
samples
C riterio n P red icto rs
S o cia l S tud ies - Communicative A rts 1 , 2, k, 5, 6
S o c ia l S tu d ies - Mathematics L , 6, 7j 8
S o c ia l S tu d ies - Foreign Languages 1 , 2, k
S o c ia l S tu d ies - Fine A rts L , 5
Communicative A rts - P h y sica l S cien ces 1 , 5
Communicative A rts - Foreign Languages 2
Communicative A rts - F in e Arts SS
212
preparatory courses will likely continue to earn low
grade point averages in university parallel courses.
Similar conclusions can also be drawn for the other
predictors (ITED MC" and ACE "T"), I.e., high scores tend
to accompany high grade point averages in university
parallel courses, while low scores tend to accompany low
grade point averages in university parallel courses.
However, the margin of predictive assurance available to
counselors when using these variables in educational
guidance is somewhat less than that for high school
cumulative grade point averages. As a consequence,
counselors 3hould be particularly cautious in making
Judgments from these predictors unless appropriate
corroborative evidence is available.
Multiple correlations based on the best
combinations of these predictors offered only slight
improvements in predictive efficiency over that already
provided by the best single predictor alone. Thus, a
staff counselor faced with the problem of helping a
student decide whether he is Justified in considering
a university parallel curriculum can usually gain almost
as much prognostic information from the student's high
school cumulative grade point average in college
preparatory courses as he can from the best combination
of all three predictors.
213
Differential scholastic prediction
Although as a group the Pearson correlations
between single predictors and differential criteria were
generally low, they were nevertheless encouraging, and
some were relatively high for the type of relationship
concerned. The application of this predictive design to
data in the two Junior college samples was proved to be
feasible and, as a consequence, that portion of the
investigation devoted to differential scholastic
prediction was Judged to be a success.
Staff counselors, however, should exercise caution
when making differential Judgments from these predictive
variables. Although eighty-eight significant Pearson
correlations and thirteen significant multiple correlations
were obtained, none represented such strong relationships
that students should be encouraged to formulate their
educational plans exclusively on these findings. On the
basis of this study, counselors at both Junior colleges
are probably best advised to assume the following
position when faced with the opportunity of using these
predictors in differential academic advisement: When
paired with selected differential criteria, certain
predictors can be helpful, but all are best used to
supplement other data which similarly relate to the
question under discussion.
214
S p e c i f i c c o n c l u s i o n s w h ic h a p p e a r t o m e r i t t h e
c o n s i d e r a t i o n o f s t a f f c o u n s e l o r s a t J u n i o r C o l l e g e "A”
a r e :
1 . V a r i a b l e s ”3 * ” ” S c i , " a n d "PL" a r e i n e f f e c t i v e
a s p r e d i c t o r s o f d i f f e r e n t i a l c r i t e r i a .
2 . O t h e r s i n g l e p r e d i c t o r s c a n be h e l p f u l i n
f o r e c a s t i n g s e l e c t e d d i f f e r e n t i a l c r i t e r i a , b u t
h e s i t a n c y s h o u l d b e e x e r c i s e d i n m a k in g
j u d g m e n ts w h ic h i n v o l v e p r e d i c t o r - c r i t e r i o n
r e l a t i o n s h i p s f o r w h ic h t h e d e g r e e o f
p r e d i c t i v e e f f i c i e n c y , a s e s t a b l i s h e d i n t h i s
s t u d y , d i d n o t e x c e e d f i v e p e r c e n t i n e x c e s s
o f c h a n c e ; t h e two r e l a t i o n s h i p s w h ic h
s a t i s f i e d t h i s minimum w e re "5" v e r s u s
C o m m u n ic a tiv e A r t s - P h y s i c a l S c i e n c e s and
"E ng" v e r s u s P h y s i c a l S c i e n c e s - M a t h e m a t i c s .
3. B a t t e r i e s o f two o r m ore p r e d i c t o r s c a n a l s o
b e h e l p f u l i n f o r e c a s t i n g s e l e c t e d d i f f e r e n t i a l
c r i t e r i a ; t h o s e m u l t i - v a r i a b l e r e l a t i o n s h i p s
w h ic h o f f e r e d p r e d i c t i v e e f f i c i e n c y o f f i v e
p e r c e n t o r b e t t e r i n e x c e s s o f c h a n c e w ere
"2 " a n d "Q" v e r s u s S o c i a l S t u d i e s - F o r e i g n
L a n g u a g e s , "Q" a n d "2" v e r s u s C o m m u n ic a tiv e
A r t s - F o r e i g n L a n g u a g e s , a n d " 9 , " " M a t h , " a n d
"4 " v e r s u s C o m m u n ic a tiv e A r t s - M a t h e m a t i c s .
215
S p e c i f i c c o n c l u s i o n s w h ic h a p p e a r t o m e r i t t h e
c o n s i d e r a t i o n o f s t a f f c o u n s e l o r s a t J u n i o r C o l l e g e "B"
a r e :
1 . P r e d i c t o r s " S c i " a n d "M ath" a r e I n e f f e c t i v e a s
p r e d i c t o r s o f d i f f e r e n t i a l c r i t e r i a .
2 . O t h e r s i n g l e p r e d i c t o r s c a n b e h e l p f u l i n
f o r e c a s t i n g s e l e c t e d d i f f e r e n t i a l c r i t e r i a , b u t
h e s i t a n c y s h o u l d b e e x e r c i s e d i n m ak in g
ju d g m e n ts w h ic h i n v o l v e p r e d i c t o r - c r i t e r i o n
r e l a t i o n s h i p s f o r w h ic h t h e d e g r e e o f
p r e d i c t i v e e f f i c i e n c y , a s e s t a b l i s h e d i n t h i s
s t u d y , d i d n o t e x c e e d f i v e p e r c e n t i n e x c e s s
o f c h a n c e ; t h e e i g h t e e n r e l a t i o n s h i p s w h ic h
s a t i s f i e d t h i s minimum a r e l i s t e d i n T a b l e L V I I .
3 . B a t t e r i e s o f tw o o r m ore p r e d i c t o r s c a n a l s o b e
h e l p f u l i n f o r e c a s t i n g s e l e c t e d d i f f e r e n t i a l
c r i t e r i a ; t h e n i n e m u l t i - v a r i a b l e r e l a t i o n s h i p s
w h ic h o f f e r e d p r e d i c t i v e e f f i c i e n c y o f f i v e
p e r c e n t o r b e t t e r i n e x c e s s o f c h a n c e a r e
l i s t e d i n T a b le L V I I I .
O t h e r c o n c l u s i o n s w h ic h r e l a t e t o d i f f e r e n t i a l
s c h o l a s t i c p r e d i c t i o n b u t w h ic h a r e b a s e d on t h e f i n d i n g s
o f b o t h s a m p le s a r e :
1 . V a r i a b l e " S c i " i s i n e f f e c t i v e a s a p r e d i c t o r
o f d i f f e r e n t i a l c r i t e r i a .
216
TABLE L V II.--J u n io r C o lleg e "B": P r e d ic to r s and c r i t e r i a f o r the
tw o -v a ria h le r e la tio n s h ip s in which the degree o f p r e d ic tiv e
e f f i c i e n c y e q u a lle d o r exceeded f i v e p er c en t in e x c e ss o f
chance
P r e d ic to r C r ite r io n E
1 S o c ia l S tu d ie s - Communicative A rts U.858
8 S o c ia l S tu d ies - M athematics 6.362
L S o c ia l S tu d ies - M athematics 5.290
5
S o c ia l S tu d ies - M athematics 5.058
9
S o c ia l S tu d ies - M athematics 5.058
1 S o c ia l S tu d ies - M athematics
^.5^3
8 S o c ia l S tu d ies - F o reig n Languages 8 . 01 + 9
L S o c ia l S tu d ies - F oreign Languages 7.280
6 S o c ia l S tu d ies - F oreign Languages 6.069
5
S o c ia l S tu d ies - F oreign Languages
5.639
9
S o c ia l S tu d ies - F oreign Languages 5.190
1 S o c ia l S tu d ies - F oreign Languages
I +.895
1 + S o c ia l S tu d ies - P h y sic a l S cien ces 7.016
8 P h y sic a l S cien ces - M athematics 17.217
l Communicative A rts - P h y sic a l S cien ces 5.126
5
Communicative A rts - F oreign Languages 7.21+2
8 Communicative A rts - F oreign Languages
5.533
9
S o c ia l S tu d ies - B u sin ess 8 . 7I +8
217
TABLE L V III.—Junior College "B": Predictors and criteria for the
multi-variable relationships in which the degree of predictive
efficien cy equalled or exceeded fiv e per cent in excess of
chance
Predictors Criterion E
1 , 5 ,
6 Social Studies - Communicative Arts
5.879
8 ,
L Social Studies - Mathematics
6.511
6 ,
SS Social Studies - Fine Arts 5.226
8 ,
6 Social Studies - Foreign Languages
8.39^
SS, L Communicative Arts - Fine Arts
*+.763
* , 6 >
8 Social Studies - Physical Sciences 20.907
8 , 1 ,
2 Physical Sciences - Mathematics 23.080
1 ,
k Communicative Arts - Physical Sciences 5.289
9 ,
FL Social Studies - Business 9.667
218
2. When c o n s id e r e d a s a g ro u p , g ra d e p o i n t
a v e ra g e s In th e f i v e d i v i s i o n s o f h ig h sc h o o l
s u b j e c t m a t t e r a r e l e s s e f f e c t i v e a s p r e d i c t o r s
o f d i f f e r e n t i a l c r i t e r i a th a n t e s t 3 1 - 9 o f
th e ITED and s e c t i o n s Q and L o f th e ACE. 1
3 . When view ed a s two s e p a r a t e g ro u p s of
p r e d i c t o r s , n e i t h e r t e s t s 1 - 9 o f th e ITED n o r
s e c t i o n s Q and L o f th e ACE can c la im c l e a r c u t
s u p e r i o r i t y o v e r th e o t h e r i n t h e p r e d i c t i o n of
d i f f e r e n t i a l c r i t e r i a . 1
4. S i g n i f i c a n t r e l a t i o n s h i p s b etw een p r e d i c t o r s
and c r i t e r i a a r e l a r g e l y s p e c i f i c t o th e
v a r i a b l e s c o n c e rn e d ; one c a n n o t s a f e l y assume
t h a t a g iv e n s i g n i f i c a n t r e l a t i o n s h i p betw een
a p r e d i c t o r and a c r i t e r i o n can be g e n e r a l i z e d
to a n o t h e r r e l a t i o n s h i p i n v o l v i n g th e same
p r e d i c t o r and a s i m i l a r c r i t e r i o n ( e . g . , from
th e S o c i a l S t u d i e s - M a th em atics c r i t e r i o n to
th e Com m unicative A r ts - M a th em atics c r i t e r i o n ,
b o th c r i t e r i a r e p r e s e n t i n g th e p a i r i n g o f a
v e r b a l s u b j e c t m a t t e r a r e a w ith a q u a n t i t a t i v e
s u b j e c t m a t t e r a r e a ) .
1See T ab le LIX
T A B L E LIX.—Selected infonnation regarding three groups of predictors used to forecast differential
criteria
Junior College " A ” Junior College " B "
N a N * M C N ® * b M C
P
r r
P
r r
ITedi _9
9 IT
.226
9 51 .263
a c v
2 k .261 2 6 .256
H . S .
5 3
.270
5 7 .205
g • P • & .
, The number of predictors in each group.
The number of significant correlations between the predictors in each group and differential
criteria.
c
The mean value of those correlations involving the predictors in each group.
220
5. S t a f f c o u n s e l o r s a t J u n i o r C o lle g e "B" a r e i n a
more f a v o r a b l e p o s i t i o n r e g a r d i n g p ro b le m s
i n d i f f e r e n t i a l s c h o l a s t i c a d v is e m e n t t h a n a r e
th e s t a f f c o u n s e l o r s a t J u n i o r C o lle g e "A ."
G e n e ra l c o n c l u s i o n s
1. A lth o u g h c u m u la tiv e g ra d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s f o r
u n i v e r s i t y p a r a l l e l c o u r s e work t a k e n i n J u n i o r
c o l l e g e a r e p r e d i c t e d b e s t by h i g h s c h o o l
c u m u la tiv e g ra d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s i n c o l l e g e
p r e p a r a t o r y c o u rs e w ork, d i f f e r e n c e s b e tw e e n
g r a d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s i n v a r i o u s a r e a s o f
u n i v e r s i t y p a r a l l e l c o u r s e work a r e p r e d i c t e d
b e s t by s e l e c t e d t e s t s c o r e s from th e ITED and
th e ACE, n o t by g ra d e p o i n t a v e r a g e s i n v a r i o u s
a r e a s o f c o l l e g e p r e p a r a t o r y s u b j e c t m a t t e r
t a k e n i n h i g h s c h o o l .
2. A lth o u g h c e r t a i n c o e f f i c i e n t s o f c o r r e l a t i o n f o r
d i f f e r e n t i a l c r i t e r i a w ere r e l a t i v e l y h i g h and
a l t h o u g h e i g h t e e n o f t h e s e p r e d i c t o r - c r i t e r i o n
r e l a t i o n s h i p s were fo u n d t o be s i g n i f i c a n t l y
c o r r e l a t e d i n b o t h s a m p le s , th e mean r v a lu e s
f o r th e two sa m p le s ( i . e . , .234 and . 2 5 5) w ere
s u f f i c i e n t l y low so t h a t c o u n s e l o r s s h o u ld
c o n ti n u e t o r e g a r d a s t u d e n t ' s g e n e r a l , o r "G, "
a b i l i t y f a c t o r p l u s h i s e x p r e s s e d a r e a s o f
a c a d e m i c i n t e r e s t a s i m p o r t a n t d e t e r m i n e r s o f
i n t r a i n d i v i d u a l d i f f e r e n c e s i n a c h i e v e m e n t .
I I I . RECOMMENDATIONS
T h e i n v e s t i g a t i o n o f g e n e r a l s c h o l a s t i c
p r e d i c t i o n y i e l d e d r v a l u e s o f s u f f i c i e n t s i z e
a n d r e l i a b i l i t y s o t h a t g u i d a n c e p e r s o n n e l i n
L o s A n g e l e s ' J u n i o r c o l l e g e s s h o u l d b e
e n c o u r a g e d t o c o n t i n u e t h e s t u d y w i t h c o m p a r a b l e
s a m p l e s o f s t u d e n t s . I n f o r m a t i o n i s n e e d e d
r e g a r d i n g s t r o n g e r a n d m o r e r e l i a b l e b a s e s on
w h i c h t o c o u n s e l s t u d e n t s a s t o w h e t h e r o r n o t
t h e y a r e w e l l a d v i s e d t o c o n s i d e r u n i v e r s i t y
p a r a l l e l c u r r i c u l a .
A l t h o u g h a s a g r o u p t h e P e a r s o n c o r r e l a t i o n s
b e t w e e n s i n g l e p r e d i c t o r s a n d d i f f e r e n t i a l
c r i t e r i a w e r e g e n e r a l l y l o w , t h e y w e r e
s u f f i c i e n t l y e n c o u r a g i n g t o m e r i t c o n t i n u e d
i n v e s t i g a t i o n o f t h e s e r e l a t i o n s h i p s i n a n
a t t e m p t t o c o n f i r m t h e i r s i g n i f i c a n c e , t o
o b t a i n l a r g e r r v a l u e s , a n d t o i n c r e a s e t h e i r
r e l i a b i l i t i e s .
I n t h e I n t e r e s t o f e f f i c i e n c y , f u t u r e s t u d i e s
b y J u n i o r c o l l e g e g u i d a n c e p e r s o n n e l I n e i t h e r
g e n e r a l o r d i f f e r e n t i a l s c h o l a s t i c p r e d i c t i o n
s h o u l d u t i l i z e e l e c t r o n i c d a t a p r o c e s s i n g
m a c h in e s w h e n e v e r t h e e x p e n s e i s n o t
p r o h i b i t i v e .
A t t e n t i o n s h o u l d b e g i v e n t o t h e p r e d i c t i v e
p r o p e r t i e s o f i n t e r e s t and p e r s o n a l i t y
v a r i a b l e s , e s p e c i a l l y i n d i f f e r e n t i a l
s c h o l a s t i c p r e d i c t i o n .
C o n s i d e r a t i o n s h o u l d b e g i v e n t o m eans b y w h ic h
a c h i e v e m e n t i n h i g h s c h o o l s c i e n c e c o u r s e s can
be u s e d t o p r e d i c t d i f f e r e n t i a l c r i t e r i a , e . g . ,
by c a t e g o r i z i n g c o u r s e s i n t o t h e b i o l o g i c a l
s c i e n c e s and t h e p h y s i c a l s c i e n c e s f o r
p r e d i c t i v e p u r p o s e s .
B I B L I O G R A P H Y
BIBLIOGRAPHY
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A p t i t u d e T e s t a s a P r e d i c t o r o f A cadem ic
A c h ie v e m e n t o f F re sh m a n E n g i n e e r i n g S t u d e n t s , "
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8 1 . T r i g g s , F . 0 . " E d u c a t i o n a l S u c c e s s e s an d F a i l u r e s
o f S t u d e n t s w i t h H ig h "L" and Low "Q" on t h e
A m e ric a n C o u n c i l on E d u c a t i o n P s y c h o l o g i c a l
E x a m i n a t i o n , " The A m e ric a n P s y c h o l o g i s t , V I
( A u g u s t, 1 9 5 1 ) , 2 9 5 - 2 9 6 .
8 2 . V i n e y a r d , E dw in E . "A L o n g i t u d i n a l S tu d y o f t h e
R e l a t i o n s h i p o f D i f f e r e n t i a l A p t i t u d e T e s t
S c o r e s w i t h C o l l e g e S u c c e s s , " The P e r s o n n e l and
G u id a n c e J o u r n a l , XXXVI ( F e b r u a r y , 195*5) ,
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233
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th e A.C.E. P s y c h o lo g ic a l E x a m in a tio n ," S ch o o l
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C. OTHER PUBLICATIONS
8 9 . Anonymous. C o n f id e n tia l Summary R eport o f A verage
S c o r e s . 'fh'e Io w a T e s ts ' o f E d u c a t i o n a l
D e v e l o p m e n t . S e c o n d R e v i s i o n . C h ic a g o :
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90. Anonymous. Manual f o r th e S ch o o l A d m in istr a to r .
The Iowa T e s t s o f E d u c a t i o n a l D evelop m en t.
F i f t h R e v is io n . C hicago: S c ie n c e R esearch
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9 1. Anonymous. Norms B u l l e t i n . American C o u n cil on
E d u cation P s y c h o lo g ic a l E xam ination f o r C o lle g e
Freshm en. 1952 E d it io n . P r in c e to n :
E d u c a tio n a l T e s t in g S e r v ic e , 1 9 5 3 . 26 pp.
234
92 . Anonymous. S c h o o l and C o l l e g e A b i l i t y T e s t s .
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E d u c a t i o n a l T e s t i n g S e r v i c e , 1955 .
93 . Anonymous. U s in g t h e Iow a T e s t s o f E d u c a t i o n a l
D evelopm ent' f o r C o l le g e P la n n in g ^ 2nd ed.”
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64 p p .
9 4 . Commins, W. D. "A c r i t i q u e on t h e A m erican C o u n c il
on E d u c a ti o n P s y c h o l o g i c a l E x a m in a tio n f o r
C o l le g e F r e s h m e n ." The T h i r d M e n ta l
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C o l le g e Freshm en a s a P r e d i c t o r o f C o lle g e
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D. UNPUBLISHED MATERIALS
Clark, Pamela. Administrative Assistant,
E d u c a ti o n a l T e s t i n g S e r v i c e , t o Henry E.
McAdams. A l e t t e r d a te d December 26, 1957.
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Angeles City College Students,” Los Angeles,
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O'Neill, Ralph. "The Iowa Tests of Educational
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Performance in California." Unpublished Study,
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Creator Mcadams, Henry Edward (author)

Core Title The Prediction Of General And Differential Achievement In Two Samples Of Junior College Students

Degree Doctor of Philosophy

Degree Program Education

Publisher University of Southern California (original), University of Southern California. Libraries (digital)

Tag education, educational psychology,OAI-PMH Harvest

Language English

Contributor Digitized by ProQuest (provenance)

Advisor Lefever, David Welty (committee chair), Calvert, Leonard (committee member), Neumeyer, Martin H. (committee member)

Permanent Link (DOI) https://doi.org/10.25549/usctheses-c18-247016

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Legacy Identifier 6201324.pdf

Dmrecord 247016

Document Type Dissertation

Rights Mcadams, Henry Edward

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Source University of Southern California (contributing entity), University of Southern California Dissertations and Theses (collection)

Access Conditions The author retains rights to his/her dissertation, thesis or other graduate work according to U.S. copyright law. Electronic access is being provided by the USC Libraries in agreement with the au...

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