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An Investigation Into The Use Of The Cost-Benefit Method In Urban Design

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An Investigation Into The Use Of The Cost-Benefit Method In Urban Design

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Content AN INVESTIGATION INTO THE USE OF THE COST-BENEFIT M ETHOD IN URBAN DESIGN by Leroy Russell Hoover A D isse rta tio n Presented to the FACULTY OF THE GRADUATE SCHOOL UNIVERSITY OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA In P a r t i a l Fulfillm ent o f the Requirements for the Degree DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY (Economics) June 19 71 INFORMATION TO USERS This material was produced from a microfilm copy of the original document. While the most advanced technological means to photograph and reproduce this document have been used, the quality is heavily dependent upon the quality of die original submitted. The following explanation of techniques is provided to help you understand markings or patterns which may appear on this reproduction. 1. The sign or "target" for pages apparently lacking from the document photographed is "Missing Page(s)". If it was possible to obtain the missing page(s) or section, they are spliced into the film along with adjacent pages. This may hava necessitated cutting thru an image and duplicating adjacent pages to insure you complete continuity. 2. When an image on the film is obliterated with a large round black mark, it is an indication that the photographer suspected that the copy may have moved during exposure and thus cause a blurred image. You will find a good image of the page in the adjacent frame. 3. When a map, drawing or chart, etc., was part of the material being photographed the photographer followed a definite method in "sectioning" the material. It is customary to begin photoing at the upper left hand corner of a large sheet and to continue photoing from left to right in equal sections with a small overlap. If necessary, sectioning is continued again — beginning below the first row and continuing on until complete. 4. The majority of users indicate that the textual content is of greatest value, however, a somewhat higher quality reproduction could be made from "photographs" if essential to the understanding of the dissertation. Silver prints of "photographs" may be ordered at additional charge by writing the Order Department, giving the catalog number, title, author and specific pages you wish reproduced. 5. PLEASE NOTE: Some pages may have indistinct print. Filmed as received. Xerox University Microfilms 300 North Zeeb Road Ann Arbor, Michigan 4S106 I I 73-18,818 H O O V ER , Leroy Russell, 1925- A N INVESTIGATION INTO TH E USE OF THE COST- BENEFIT M ETH O D IN U R B A N DESIGN, University of Southern California, Ph.D., 1971 Economics, general University Microfilms, A X ER O X Company , Ann Arbor, Michigan THIS DISSERTATION HAS BEEN M ICROFILM ED EXACTLY AS RECEIVED. UNIVERSITY O F SO U TH ERN CALIFORNIA TH E GRADUATE SCHOOL UNIVERSITY PARK LOS ANGELES, CALIFO RNIA 9 0 0 0 7 This dissertation, written by Leroy R u ssell Hoover under the direction of /t ,..™ . Dissertation C om mittee, and approved by all its members, has been presented to and accepted by The Graduate School, in partial fulfillment of requirements of the degree of D O C T O R OF P F I I L O S O P H Y Dean D ate ...... DISSERTATION COMMITTEE 'hairmait TABLE OF CONTENTS Ch apte t I. INTRODUCTION........................................................................... 1 General ................................................................................ 1 The P r o b l e m ...................................................................... 4 The A p p ro ach.............................................. 6 The S c o p e ........................................................................... 11 The O r g a n i z a t i o n ............................................................. 13 II. GOALS AND ASSUMPTIONS................................................... 15 I n t r o d u c t i o n ...................................................................... 15 General Remarks ............................................................. 15 The Physical World and the S c ie n tific M e th o d ................................................................................ 18 Normative Problems ........................................................ 21 Relationship to City D e s i g n ................................. 30 Standards ........................................................................... 36 I I I . REVIEW OF DISCIPLINES UTILIZED IN THE APPROACH 5 7 In te rd isc ip lin a ry Approach ..................................... 58 Economics ........................................................................... 60 Welfare Economics ........................................................ 81 Systems Analysis ............................................................. 96 Cost-Benefit Analysis ........................................... 102 P l a n n i n g ................................................................................ 110 Transport, General ........................................................ 118 Classical Approach to the Transport P r o b l e m ........................................................................... 126 IV. REVIEW OF CITY DESIGN THEORIES AND METHODS . . 133 Introduction ...................................................................... 133 H i s t o r i c a l ........................................................................... 134 Theoretical C ities ........................................................ 143 Contemporary Town and City D e s i g n ..................... 150 Proposed C ities ............................................................. 163 S u m m a ry ................................................................................ 187 i i Chapter V. CITY DESIGN: THE RESULTS......................................... 193 Introduction .................................................................... 19 3 United States New Towns ......................................... 200 B ritish New T o w n s ...................................................... 210 South American New Towns......................................... 214 Summary and Conclusions ......................................... 216 VI. THE COST-BENEFIT M ETHOD AND URBAN DESIGN . . . 221 General Remarks ........................................................... 221 Previous Applications of the Cost-Benefit Approach........................................................................ 223 Modified Cost-Benefit Procedure ....................... 230 The Classical Approach ............................................. 236 Alternate Approach ...................................................... 239 VII. THE COST-BENEFIT FORMAT............................................. 245 General R e m a r k s ............................................ 246 A pproach............................................................................. 246 The S u r v e y .......................... 256 City S i t i n g .................................................................... 258 Major Activity Siting and Preliminary S i z i n g ............................... 261 Locating A ctiv itie s, General ................................ 268 Centralization vs. Decentralization Cost-Benefit Tables ............................................. 280 Cost Estimates (First Iteration) ....................... 280 Minor Activity Location ......................................... 305 Absolute Locational Analysis ............................... 313 The Transportation System Design ....................... 315 VIII. SUM M ARY A ND CONCLUSIONS.............................................. 334 IX. RECOM M ENDED AREAS FOR FUTURE RESEARCH . . . . 339 SELECTED BIBLIOGRAPHY .................................................................... 344 i i i LIST OF TABLES Table 1. Forms of the Industrial Location Problem . . . . 77 2. Distance Distribution of U.S. New Towns From Established Cities ............................................................ 163 3. Use of Professionals in New Town Design . . . . 164 4. Leontief Input-Output Model for Guayana . . . . 179 5. Expected Population of Ciudad Guayana .................... 182 6. Approaches to City D e s i g n ............................................... 188 7. Land Use in L etc h w o rth........................................................ 197 8. C haracteristics of Greenbelt Towns ............................. 205 9. Special-Purpose B ritish New Towns ............................. 213 10. Rating of Designed Cities ............................................... 219 11. Cost-Benefits: Ipswich ................................................... 226 12. City Siting C o n s id e ra tio n s ............................................... 259 13. Cost-Benefits, Site Selection ...................................... 260 14. Assumptions and Purpose for Centralization, Decentralization and Scale Trade-Offs . . . . 281 15. Public A ctivity, C entralization vs. Decentra liz a tio n and Scale Cost-Benefit Analysis . . , 282 16. Private Activity, Centralization vs. Decentra liz a tio n and Scale Cost-Benefit Analysis . . . 287 17. Pollution Abatement Costs ............................................... 303 18. Ecological Abatement Costs ............................................... 304 iv Table 19. R esidential A nalysis, General S u i t a b i l i t y . . . 308 20. R esid en tial S election Trade-Offs .................................. 311 21. C ost-B enefits, Link Added Approach .............................. 327 v LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1. The Scientific M e t h o d ........................................................ 22 2. The Ecological S y s t e m ....................................................... 39 3. The Ecology and Life Quality S ta n d a r d s .................. 42 4. Factors Affecting Life Quality ................................... 43 5. Demand Versus Distance ..................................................... 68 6. The Demand C o n e ................................................................... 69 7. Multiple Demand Areas ..................................................... 70 8. Demand Hexagons ................................................................... 71 9. Oupuit's Consumer's Surplus ........................................... 89 10. A Typical Flow C h a r t .......................................................... 100 11. The Ford-Fulkerson T h e o r y ............................................. 131 12. Plan of B r a s i l i a .................................................................... 176 13. The General Approach to City D e s i g n ....................... 248 14. City S i z i n g ............................................................................. 262 15. Per C p ita Costs of Service vs. Population . . . 267 16. Locational Analysis ........................................................... 271 17. Long-Run Average Cost Curve, Activity i . . . . 274 18. Cost, Private Activity ...................................................... 276 19. Cost, Public Activity ...................................................... 277 20. General Flow, People and Goods, in an Urban A r e a ........................................ 316 v i Figure 21. Transport Ray A g g r e g a t i o n ................................................ 325 22. Cost-Benefit, Link by Link A d d i t i o n ........................... 330 23. Loads After Aggregation and Link-Adding P r o c e s s .................................................................................... 332 v i i CHAPTER I INTRODUCTION This d issertatio n investigates the problems of city design from a systems viewpoint and develops a methodology to deal with some of these problems. Specifically, a cost- benefit format w ill be developed to serve as a quantitative background to the design process. In this chapter, the Introduction, some general features of the problem, it s importance, and the need for a quantitative approach w ill be noted. After a b rie f back ground, the problem will be stated as succinctly as possible. Finally, this chapter w ill discuss the scope and organiza tion of the d issertatio n . General Many of the c r iti c a l problems facing man today resu lt from the population explosion.1 It is clear that modern man is an urban man. Further, i t is apparent that much of the incremental population over the next several decades w ill have to be lodged in c itie s . 1The statements made in the introduction w ill be documented in further d etail la te r in this document. 1 2 It is equally clear that existing c i t i e s w ill not, as currently configured, be capable of absorbing this in c re ment in population. Obviously, two courses of action are open to the • * 2 so c iety : 1. Expand existing c i t i e s . 2. Construct new c i t i e s . This d issertatio n w ill primarily address i t s e l f to the problem of the design of new c i tie s . Whatever the argu ments (they w ill be b riefly reviewed below) , new c i tie s must be b u ilt. The problem is as urgent as i t is ill-understood. Obviously, this d isse rta tio n w ill not solve a ll of the problems of city design--or any large subset of these problems. I t is f e l t , however, that the approach to city design proposed here w ill serve as a positive step toward developing a logical and e ffic ie n t methodology of city design. Some of the considerations affecting the two pos sible responses to housing and servicing the anticipated population increment w ill now be b rie fly reviewed. Arguments can be made for both a lte rn a tiv e s. Typi cally, the proponent of using existing urban centers could argue: 2 I t would be possible, in theory at least, to con sider other altern ativ es. For example, s t r i c t , legally enforced b irth control, or attempting to de-urbanize man, or some type of "death co n tro l." 3 1. I t is less expensive to increase use density of 3 e x istin g stru c tu re s and f a c i l i t i e s . 2. Existing c i t i e s have functioning p o l i t i c a l - adm inistrative s tru c tu re s . These could possibly be u t i l i z e d to accommodate a larg er population. 3. Existing c i t i e s have been designed by a "free- en terp ris e "- like process and have, in p rin c ip le , enjoyed a l l of the advantages of th is system, e . g . , a se lf-c o rre c tiv e market s tru c tu re , stable equilibrium , etc. Some of the arguments favoring the construction of new c i t i e s are: 1. Further use of s tru c tu re s , f a c i l i t i e s , and organizations in most large c i tie s (1 and 2 above) has already passed the point of diminishing retu rn s. Thus, increasing the size of New York is p aten tly mad, while expanding Topeka, Kansas, to the size of Chicago would only engulf Topeka in the morass of problems facing a l l of the la rg e r c i t i e s . 2. Whatever process has been used in designing ex istin g c i t i e s , "free e n te r p ris e - lik e " or not, has not re s u lte d in liv a b le c i t i e s , at le a s t in the United S tates. Thus, new methods should be tr ie d . I t is not ce rtain th at higher density use is the most e f f i c i e n t so lu tio n . C ertainly, some of the service functions of most large c i t i e s are overloaded under e x i s t ing conditions. 4 3. The press of the incremental population over a rela tiv e ly short period of time w ill not allow the u t i l i z a tion of trad itio n a l methods of city building or expansion; new methods must be tried . Innovation would be much more acceptable in an entirely new city than in any existing c i t y . 4. The political-o rg an izatio n al structure of most large citie s has (usually decades ago) reached an impasse. Carrying out daily business is very d if f i c u lt , and any change appears impossible. 5. Increasing attention must be paid to environ mental and ecological factors. In many cases, i t is d i f f i cult i f not impossible to deal adequately with these prob lems in the context of existing c itie s . 6. In the design of any new city , modern methods of economic analysis, planning, optimization, e tc ., can be u tilized . 7. Advanced technology can be u tiliz e d . Neither set of arguments is conclusive at this time, and very likely w ill not be for some period of time, i f ever. As previously noted, this d issertatio n w ill address i t s e l f to the economic aspects of new city design problems. The Problem The problem reduces to that of defining a logical procedure which w ill design economically, environmentally, 5 so c ia lly and psychologically feasib le c i t i e s which can be constructed, maintained, and operated at minimum cost and under the constraints l i s t e d below. As far as po ssib le, a l l co sts, including social costs, w ill be taken into considera tion. This minimization must be done under a v ariety of co n stra in ts; the prin cip al among these are: 1. The area in which the city is to be b u i l t has a given, and bounded, set of resources. The resources, of course, have prices. 2. An agreed-upon q u a lity of l i f e must be main tained. Again, costs are involved. 3. Certain maximum amounts of cap ital for construc tion are available. 4. Time must be included in any calculations (d is counting) . 5. I t should be designed under some planning time u • 4 horizon. While there w ill be fu rth e r discussion of most of the points made above, i t is f e l t th a t there is ample or even great need for a methodical and q u an tita tiv e approach to the design of a c ity . I t is f e l t th at the way time enters many economic c a lcu latio n s, including the area of welfare economics, is subject to some critic is m . This w ill be discussed in some d e ta il in Chapter I I I . 6 There have been a number of c i t i e s designed in the p ast with varying degrees of success. The designers have most frequently been a r c h ite c ts and planners with, on occa sio n , some assistan ce from economists. The approach has, in many cases, been clo ser to a r t i s t i c or a r c h ite c tu ra l than, q u a n t ita tiv e . As noted, success has been lim ited. City design must, of course, s t i l l include the a c tu al design of s tr u c t u r e s , but i t should also include a wide v a rie ty of other d is c ip lin e s . Thus, i t is obvious th a t the a r c h i te c t must always play a ro le in the design of the actu al s tr u c t u r e , p la n ts , dwellings, v i s t a s , parks, opens, greens, e t c . , of which the c ity w ill f in a ll y be composed. However, p r io r to th is time in the development, a framework, p re fe ra b ly defined by processes a n a ly tic a l in n a tu re , is required to "shape" and "size" the c ity as a function of population, i n i t i a l investment, av a ilab le resources, a n t i cipated operating expenses and revenues, an tic ip a te d p e r sonal income, e tc . Further influences in c ity design which must be considered are those having to do with c ity ec o lo g i cal and environmental standards. The Approach The general approach w ill be th a t of a modified cost e ffec tiv e n e ss or c o s t-b e n e fit an a ly sis. The m odifica tio n s are required, as there w ill have to be a considerable amount of emphasis given to non-quantifiable f a c to rs . 7 The approaches to city design that have been applied to date are reminiscent of architectural design-- i . e ., a tte n tion to plan views, geometric shapes--both in plan and e l e vations (e.g., spectacular cantilevers, b u ttresses, s tru c ture designs, imaginative spatial arrangements, as seen from the ground, e tc .) . Very l i t t l e has been done on estimating the implica tions of social-economic, environmental or demographic fac tors on city design. Yet, obviously, these factors must be considered and costed i f any newly designed city is to func tion properly. To this end, this d issertatio n w ill investigate and set forth a modified cost-benefit analysis to attack the problem of new city design. An attempt w ill be made to con sider a ll costs and all b e n e fits . Thus, the usual economic costs and benefits w ill be introduced. Further, an attempt w ill be made to introduce some of the social, p o l i t i c a l , demographic, physical, e tc ., costs and benefits. Several of the tools of systems analysis w ill be used. Specifically, these w ill include cost benefit or cost effectiveness analysis, use of system block diagrams and flow charts, and, as necessary, probability theory and s t a t i s t i c s . 8 As the approach to c ity design is a general one, a tten tio n w ill be paid to a wider v a rie ty of problems than are usually considered in c ity design. In a sense, the philosophy of the co st-b e n efit approach proposed in th is d is s e r ta ti o n is contrary to seg ments of n e o -c la ssic a l economics because the usual assump tions of p r o f i t maximization and cost minimization, although s t i l l made, are constrained by requiring them to operate under a se lf-p erp etu a tin g steady s ta te (SPSS) requirement. The s e lf-p e rp e tu a tin g steady s ta te is the r a te or level of a l l a c t i v i t i e s such th a t there is no appreciable d e te rio ra tio n of the environment.^ One very quickly runs into the problem of defining, in a more p recise sense, the s e lf-p e rp e tu a tin g steady s ta te . What time period corresponds to the SPSS? What is the long run? For example, do we use an average human l i f e , an average generation, the h a l f - l i f e of DNA (the l a t t e r is com- fL puted to be approximately 20,000-30,000 years )? No firm decision can be made at th is p o in t in the d is s e r ta tio n . The problem w ill be discussed fu rth e r in Chapter VI. ^This is discussed in g re a te r d e ta il in Chapter II. ^Obviously, under a s t r i c t breeding regime or a highly se le c tiv e environment, genotypic c h a ra c te ris tic s can change much more rapidly. Possibly, mankind is inad v erte n tly se ttin g up such a s it u a ti o n . 9 The SPSS is defined as a s it u a t i o n over a se le c te d time period such th a t the ra te of ir r e v e r s ib le resource use is less than or equal to the ra te at which technology is e f f e c tin g resource transform ation. For example, the ra te of use of iron ore should be made to correspond to the ra te at which we are developing s u b s t itu te s or methods of recovery. To be s p e c if ic , if the iron inventory is 200,000 pounds per person per y ear, and our time period is 200 y ea rs, use per year must not exceed 1000 pounds (under t o t a l loss of used m a te r ia l ) . If s u b s titu te s are being developed at a rate of five pounds per year, the ra te of use of iron can double. If we are to continue to liv e on th is planet for any period of time, over the next one or two hundred y e a rs, the SPSS must be defined and adhered t o . The SPSS is not to be confused with other d e f i n i tio n s of s ta tio n a ry sta te s by the c la s s ic a l economists or Schumpeter's S tatio n ary S tate. John S tu a rt Mill was the f i r s t economist to discuss a s ta tio n a ry s t a t e . The meaning attach ed to the phrase by M ill re fe rre d to a s itu a tio n wherein Man's control of n a tu ra l phenomena ceased t o improve and then, in ra th e r s h o rt order, the lim ite d supply of land would fix a lim it on food. Then, increasing wages and rents on a g r ic u ltu r a l lands would elim inate p r o f it s and eventually c a p ita l forma tio n . This sta tio n a ry s ta te was looked upon by Mill as the 10 millennium. What Mill has described is frequently referred to as a "food-limited" population. This has been attained in the Middle East and in China. The resu lts do not in any way correspond to a utopia or the millennium. Nor is the SPSS related to Schumpeter's "Stationary 7 S tate," which corresponds to degenerate p o s t - c a p ita lis t ic sta te s wherein all entrepreneurship was dead and the economy organized along s o c i a l i s t i c lines. Obviously, the treatment w ill have to be sparse in some places, e .g ., some of the discussions of ecological problems, p o litic a l-o rg a n iz a tio n a l problems, e tc. As much attention as possible w ill be given to the usually ignored problems of social cost. I t is fully realized that the approach is both very general and highly t h e o r e tic a l. However, i t is f e l t that a broad overview of a given problem should precede the search for a manageable, or "soluble," approach. When a problem is cast in general terms, i t is many times possible to avoid traps or dead-ends that frequently re su lt from pursuing an immediately ( s e e m i n g l y ) p ra c tic a l course of action. For th is reason, i t is f e l t th a t, in spite of the general and th eo retical nature of this d is s e rta tio n , i t can be of value in the area of city design. Joseph A. Schumpeter, The Theory of Economic Development, t r a n s . by Redvers OpTe (Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1934), p. 324. 11 The Scope I t is now necessary to specify as p re c is e ly as pos s ib l e the scope of th is d i s s e r ta ti o n . The t i t l e of the d i s s e r t a t i o n mentions the use of c o s t-b e n e fit an aly sis in the design o f c i t i e s . In th is case, the use of the word "design" is r e s t r i c t e d to several meanings; they are: 1. Location w ithin a region of the " b e s t," or most c o s t- e f f e c tiv e , s i t e for a c ity . 2. Given the region, i t s resource inventory, the general l i f e q u a lity standards d esired, the sizing of the c i t y would be determined. 3. Given the information noted above, the a c t i v i t y mix would be determined. 4. The a c t i v i t y siz in g would be fixed. 5. C ost-benefit would be used to determine c e n t r a l iz a tio n vs. d e c e n tra liz a tio n . 6. Best, or optim al, c e n tra liz ed and/or d e c e n tr a l ized locations would be determined for each a c t i v i t y . The above l i s t sounds reasonably complete; as a m atter of f a c t , i t is n o t- - a t l e a s t , i t is not in the sense th a t many, of not most, c ity designers, planners or a r c h i t e c t s would recognize. A great deal is s p e c if ic a lly excluded. Some things which are excluded are: 1. S tru c tu re, design, p a r tic u la r ly surface appear ance, e n t r ie s , e le v a tio n s, plan views, etc. 12 2. Vista or view design. 3. Specific open space or park design. 4. General matters of color, texture, appearance, audio background. 5. Decoration, inside and out. 6. Presentation of "sense arrays" for e s th e tic purposes. 7. General e s th e tic s . The above items are prim arily excluded because they are not q u a n tifia b le - - and many of them w ill very probably never be q u antifiable. It is without doubt very fortunate th at, while the "dismal science" can analyze, deduce econo mic v e ra c itie s , maximize p ro fits and minimize co sts, i t makes no attempt or pretense to create beauty or define a f u ll l i f e . Nor is i t supposed to. Economics, q u an tita tiv e and otherwise, has a very important role in human a f f a i r s , but a non-normative ro le. Once the value judgments have been made, economic analysis should be able to furnish the analytical engine which l o g i cally , i f re le n tle s s ly , "grinds out" the implications of the value judgments in the most economical and e f f ic ie n t manner. Thus, the inclusion or exclusion of any p a rtic u la r item from th is d iss e rta tio n is not intended to r e f le c t on the author's notions or ideas of it s re la tiv e importance in the general scheme of things, in l i f e in general, or in 13 urban l i f e , in p a r tic u la r . Rather, the selec tio n r e f le c ts e n t i t i e s , processes, and a c t i v i t i e s which may be f r u i t f u l l y analyzed by the tools of economics, c o s t-b e n e fit an alysis, and the other methods of systems analysis. One fin a l note is necessary on the role of economic analysis in the design of the modified environment in which we choose to liv e . To c la r if y th is idea, i t is necessary to mention a concept occurring in elementary mathematical analysis, that of "necessary and s u f fic ie n t" conditions. To give a simple example, i f an a i r c r a f t (heavier than a ir) is to fly , a necessary condition is that i t must have l i f t i n g su rfa c e s . That i s , obviously, by no means s u f f i c ie n t. For example, no mention of s t a b i l i t y , power sources, fuel, dura tio n of f l i g h t , e t c . , has been made. In a sim ilar fashion, economic analysis and, in a more d irec t and immediate fashion, c o s t-b e n e fit analysis, can provide the "necessary" element in the design of any non-natural environment to be occupied by man. There i s , however, no guarantee th a t th is w ill be s u f f i c i e n t . I t i s , in fa c t, f a ir ly c e rta in th a t the l i f e sty le defined by the u n re stric te d p u rsu it of gain and the economic man is not s u ffic ie n t (at le a s t , i f any time period over one or two generations is to be considered). 14 The Organization The remainder of this d issertatio n is organized into eight chapters. Chapters II and III lay the groundwork by reviewing classical location theory and the cost-benefit approach. Chapter IV reviews the lite r a tu r e on city design, while Chapter V summarizes the resu lts in terms of c itie s actually b u ilt. Chapter VI defines the approach in d e ta il, and Chapter VII w ill set forth the actual cost-benefit fo r mat. Chapter VIII consists of the summary and conclusions, and Chapter IX discusses possible further research. CHAPTER I I GOALS AND ASSUMPTIONS Introduction This chapter w ill address i t s e l f to the task of s e t ting some of the goals and objectives of th is d iss e rta tio n and to firmly re la te these goals and objectives to accepted philosophical methods. I t is necessary to clearly define the goals, then use these goals to determine what assump tions must be made. There are two types of philosophical problems which must be considered; they are e th ica l and normative problems and methodological problems. There w ill be a b rie f discus sion of the relevant elements of modern thought in each of the areas. They w ill then be related to the goals that must be set in urban design. General Remarks Any problem which involves man is natu rally divided into two basic p arts; they are: 1. A normative element, eth ica l considerations, goals. 2. A physical element, i . e . , the nature of the phy sic a l world. 15 16 The f i r s t element i s b a s ic a lly e th ic a l, although some p h y sic al lim ita tio n s must be considered in the goal- s e ttin g process. Thus, in a s e lf-p e rp e tu a tin g steady s t a t e (SPSS) s i t u a t i o n , i t is d i f f i c u l t to see how a population goal could be s e t which required a quantity of p ro tein in excess of that generated by the most e f f i c i e n t photosyn th e s is process. The physical or n atu ra l element is interwoven w ith the normative process although, frequently, i t w ill indicate the f in a l a b i l i t y to meet (or not meet) a goal and thus induce a f in a l decision. As we must s e t c e rta in goals or standards, and as th is must be done in lig h t of physical r e a l i z a b i l i t y , we are forced to consider two b a s ic areas of knowledge r e la te d to our d e s ire s and our a b i l i t y to f u l f i l l them. Thus, we must consider, b r i e f l y , the s t a t e of e th ic a l knowledge, how i t is obtained, and i t s degree of c e rtitu d e plus the problems of n a tu ra l o r physical knowledge, and, again, how i t is ob tain ed and i t s c e rtitu d e . Thus, i f the goals or assumptions o f any human endeavor are to be placed on a firm b a sis, i t is necessary to deal i n some fashion with basic epistemology. Although the problems are very complex, and a review of t h e i r h isto ry would be encyclopedic, a b r ie f summary of modern thought in the s ta te of knowledge i n normative and natural areas is indicated to serve as a foundation for th is e f f o r t. 17 Thus, the plan or approach is: 1. To review, b rie fly , modern philosophical thought on epistemological problems in the normative and physical a re a s. 2, To, in light of the above: a. Set the goals of l i f e in an urban environ ment (realizing many are p a r tia l or limited) . b. Assess the r e a liz a b ility of the goals se t. The basic philosophic approach of this dissertatio n is twofold. F irs t, the approach toward physical knowledge is e ssen tially empirical. The use of the s c ie n tific method is accepted as the best available means of obtaining know ledge about the physical world. Second, the approach to values is esse n tia lly human i s t i c . It is , however, recognized and stressed that value judgments, normative matters, and ethical problems are not subject to any sort of "proof” or "substantiation" from e ith e r science or epistemology. As noted by Reichenbach,* ethical problems can always be cast in the form of impera tiv e s, and imperatives are not subject to any logical proof. Thus, this d issertatio n takes the view, common to the em piricist, that the epistemological approach to know ledge u tiliz e d in the physical world has essentially no *Hans Reichenbach, The Rise of S c ie n tific Philo sophy (Berkeley § Los Angeles: University of California P ress, 1953), pp. 280-281. 18 in te ra c tio n with the e th ic a l area. (In p a r t, at le a s t , th is a ttitu d e has led to the e x i s t e n t i a l i s t reactio n , i . e . , even i f a complete and demonstratable e th ic a l system is currently not a v a ila b le , i t is necessary, as an in d iv id u al, to act.) In a very real sense, one faces the e x i s t e n t i a l i s t dilemma in the problem of the laying of a philosophical background against which any large p r o je c t, such as a c ity , must be evaluated. Thus, we must make a f a i r l y wide range of choices, value judgments, and normative decisions which are not now, and probably never w ill be, completely support able . the s c i e n t i f i c method and the nature of some of the eth ica l or normative problems which must be d e a lt with in the prob lem of c ity design. The Physical World and the S c ie n tific Method Empiricism is the doctrine that a ll knowledge, with the possible exception of logic and mathematics, is derived from experience.^ John Locke is e ffe c tiv e ly the founder of B ritish empiricism. Locke defines three types of knowledge and how they are acquired: 1. Knowledge of our own e x iste n c e - - i n t u i t i v e . The next two sections b r ie f ly discuss empiricism and Bertrand R ussell, A History of Mode (New York: Simon and Schuster^ 1945) , p . 609 Modern Philosophy 19 2. Knowledge of God's e x isten c e--d e m o n strativ e. 3. Knowledge of the world--by senses. Empiricism (and idealism) is s t i l l faced by a basic problem to which no adequate s o lu tio n has been found, namely, how do we obtain knowledge about things other than our 3 selves and our minds? Modern empiricism incorporates mathematics and a powerful system of lo g ic . Much of methodology resembles, and is drawn from, modern science. In some cases, i t has been able to give d e f in it e and f in a l answers to problems, p a r t i c u l a r l y in the f i e l d of epistemology. According to modern empiricism, knowledge can be a n a ly tic or s y n th e tic .^ Analytic knowledge refers to things known through lo g ic a l manipulation; thus, given a se t of assumptions, mathematics is a n a ly tic . Synthetic knowledge depends on observations; thus, in a way not open to a n a ly tic p ro p o sitio n s , i t can tr u ly add to human knowledge. The S c ie n tif ic Method The s c i e n t i f i c process s t a r t s with observation. After s u f f i c i e n t observation has been made of a given phe nomenon, a f i r s t , freq u en tly vague, g e n e ra liz a tio n or set of g en e ra liz a tio n s is made. These g en e ra liz atio n s are 3I b i d . , p. 611. 4 Reichenbach, The Rise of S c i e n t i f i c Philosophy, p . 35. I 20 actually examples of premature inductive inferences. This f i r s t level of generalizations or inferences is prescien- t i f i c . Thus i t is f a ir ly certain that some general i n f e r ences regarding the role of gravity were made l i t e r a l l y thousands of years prior to Galileo or Newton. This con tention is supported by references to both Egyptian and Greek architecture and weaponry. At this point, the actual s c ie n ti f i c process begins. Some generalizations have been made. I t is possible to make some f i r s t deductions. The deductions must be subject to some type of observational v e rific a tio n . The empirical v e rific a tio n , or lack thereof, w ill r e f le c t back on the v a lid ity of the i n i t i a l generalizations. If the deduced resu lts (predications) are correct, cred u lity is lent to the generalizations; i f not, doubt is cast on the generaliza tions, they are modified, new deductions (predications) are made, further observations are taken, etc. This is the general schema of the s c i e n t i f i c method sta te d in a very rough fashion. Stated more p recisely , and more succinctly, the s c ie n ti f i c method involves: o Observation. o F irs t generalization (crude inductive inference), o F irs t deductive inference (prediction) . o Observation ( t e s t i n g ) . 21 o A cc ep ta n ce-reje ctio n . o M odification or reinforcement of the f i r s t g e n e r a liz a ti o n . o Observation. o Formal assumptions and d e f in itio n s , o Deductive inference, o Formal hypothesis. o Precise experiments or observations, o S t a t i s t i c a l an aly sis of r e s u l t s , o S t a t i s t i c a l acceptance or re je c tio n , o M odification or reinforcement of assumptions. The process defined above is c a rrie d out i t e r a t i v e l y and usually with fu rth e r refinement at each i t e r a t i o n . For c l a r i t y , the process is i l l u s t r a t e d schem atically in Fig. 1. Normative Problems One of the more d i f f i c u l t problems associated with any endeavor of a magnitude s u f f i c i e n t to have serious economic impact is th a t of s e ttin g the goals, o b je c tiv e s, c r i t e r i a , etc . This c le a rly involves making value judgments or normative d ecisio n s. None of the s c ie n c e s - - s o c i a l , phy s ic a l or e co lo g ical--can make any claim to fu rn ish much guidance in th is area. Two areas or d is c ip lin e s make claim to fu rn ish some guidance in the re so lu tio n of these prob lems; they are philosophy and r e lig io n . Although th is is a t r e a t i s e on economics, a very b r i e f discussion of some of the problems which must be faced F R E -SC IE N T IFIC (AFTER SEVERAL KEENFORCEMENTS) FORMAL \SSUMITIONS OBSERVATIONS (G K N SR A L ) GENERAL' IZ A T IC N REJECT SEVERAL IT ER A TIl .< 3 AROUND T H IS LOCP :> VALUATION Figure 1. The Scie HYPOTHESIS ADDED TO BODY OF S C IE N T IF IC KNOWLEDi-5 MAL TIONS REJECTION R E -E N rC R C t' RE-EVALUATE P R E C IS E EXPFRTHFN’T PH OBSERVATION STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF RESULTS MODIFY FORMAL HYPOTHESIS FORMATION The S c ie n t if ic Method 23 in settin g goals or standards w ill be presented and related to the specific goals or objectives of city design. F irs t, a note on the nature of eth ical knowledge, ethical statements are imperatives, i . e . , commands. A com mand can be neither true nor false. An excellent statement of the principle appears in Reichenbach's The Rise of Scien t i f i c Philosophy, and is repeated here: The ethical axioms are not necessary truths because they are not truths of any kind. Truth is a predicate of statements; but the lin g u istic expressions of ethics are not statements. They are d irectiv es. A directive cannot be c la ssifie d as true or false; these predicates do not apply because directive sentences are of a lo g i cal nature different from that of indicative sentences, or statements. An important kind of directive is given by impera tiv e s, which we use for the direction of persons other than ourselves. Consider the command "Shut the door." Is this imperative true or false? W e need only pro nounce the question in order to see that is is nonsen s ic a l. The utterance "Shut the door" does not inform us about matters of fact; nor does i t represent a tau tology, that is , a statement of logic. W e could not say what would be the case i f the utterance "Shut the door" were true. An imperative is a lin g u istic utterance to which the c la s s ific a tio n tru e-fa lse does not apply.5 Bertrand Russell says much the same thing in a slig h tly different way: There remains, however, a vast f ie ld , trad itio n a lly included in philosophy, where s c ie n tific methods are inadequate. This fie ld includes ultimate questions of value; science alone, for example, cannot prove that i t is bad to enjoy the in flic tio n of cruelty. Whatever can be known, can be known by means of science; but things which are legitim ately matters of feeling lie outside i t s province. 5I b i d . , p. 280-281. 24 Philosophy through ut its h isto ry , has consisted of two parts inharmoniously blended: on the one hand a theory as to the nature of the world, on the other an eth ical or p o lit ic a l doctrine as to the best way of l i v ing. The fa ilu re to separate these two with su ffic ie n t c la r ity has been a source of much confused thinking. Philosophers, from Plato to William James, have allowed th e ir opinions as to the constitution of the universe to be influenced by the desire for ed ificatio n : knowing, as they supposed, what beliefs would make men virtuous. They have invented arguments, often very sophisticated, to prove these b eliefs t r u e . 6 Thus, i t is clear that the search for e th ic a l ce r tain ty is f r u it le s s - -and has been from the time i t sta rted several thousand years ago. This does not mean that one is at once free to d i s card a l l eth ical thought from Confucius to C hristianity or from A risto tle to Camus. Much of the eth ical thought of both religious teachers and philosophers over the la s t sev eral thousand years has been done at a high level and, in many cases, proven both durable and b en e ficia l. Much of h i s to ric a l e th ica l thought and teachings must be actually the resu lt of observation and experience and, hence, sound. Un fo rtu n ately , societies of the periods in which most p h ilo sophers and religious teachers lived were not in te lle c tu a lly developed to a point where pragmatism or empiricism could be put forward in support of any eth ical or moral doctrine. The underpinning usually claimed for ethical systems f a lls into one of four categories: ^Russell, A History of Modern Philosophy, p. 834. 25 1. Divinely revealed. 2. " I n t u i t i v e l y ’1 known. 3. R ationally derived. 4. Em pirically or pragm atically obtained. Most of the g reat re lig io n s f a l l into the divinely revealed category. The e t h ic a l imperatives are guaranteed to be true by a god or su p ern atu ral power. A r e la te d form of e th ic a l knowledge is th at which claims to be derived from i n t u i t i o n . The r a t i o n a l l y derived e th ic a l systems are favored by the p h ilo so p h ers- - e .g ., Kant, Spinoza, Hegel, etc. F in ally , there are systems derived from experience, e . g . , Dewey's pragmatism would f a l l into th is c la ss. H is to r ic a lly [in the Western world) , the e a r l i e s t e th ic a l systems were those associated with re lig io n s. The f i r s t organized e th ic a l systems were very prob ably those asso cia ted with some of the early law givers, 7 e . g . , the Ten Commandments, Solon's Table of Laws, or g Popicola, who copied some of Solon's laws for use in Rome. The f i r s t r e a lly system atic attempt to lo g ic a lly co n stru ct e th ic a l systems must r e s t with Socrates [via Plato) and A r i s to tle [The Nicomachean E th ics). The Greek 7 P lutarch, The Lives of Noble Grecians and Romans, tra n s . by John Dryden [New York: Modern L ib rary ), p. 105- 117. 8l b i d . , p. 131-132. 26 approach is a r e a l i s t i c approach in that i t attempts to discover truth from reason alone rather than from any type of observations. (Actually, much of what they deemed axio matic would be recognized today to be the resu lt of uncon scious observation.) Although many of the modern philosophers became much more sophisticated about the problem of "deriving" a code conduct (e.g ., Spinoza’s moral geometry, Kant's synthetic a p rio ri and categorical im perative), a ll of these r a tio n a l i s t i c attempts failed. As noted e a r l ie r , a ll effo rts at demonstrating or proving moral codes must f a il because i t is not possible to prove or demonstrate imperative statements. Even though is is not possible to prove an ethical system, i t is possible to see, on a commonsense or pragmatic basis, where most of the rules come from and why they must be adhered to. Most of the simple rules have to do with group s u rv iv a l--e .g ., thou shalt not k i l l , thou shalt not 9 s te a l, etc. Thus, the source of morality is very probably g The d esira b ility of group existence should be clear. A single unarmed man is at the mercy of any large predator; even a family is in grave danger. The population of a small village may be harassed by a large animal, but is not endangered. Large groups are no longer threatened by any animal lif e . Further, to quote Dr. Niedercorn: "Man is a being who must communicate and in te ra c t with others. Although a mature person can live alone (a hermit) , a small child cannot grow to maturity without considerable human i n t e r action ." 27 observation (empiricism) and the need springs from group s u rv iv a l. In th is same vein, the following quote from Reichen bach is appropriate: How can we explain the fact th a t moral v o litio n s appear to us as secondary v o litio n s , as the expression of an obligation? I think the explanation is th at these v o litio n s are imposed upon us by the social group to which we belong, in other words, th a t they are o rig in a lly group v o litio n s . This o rigin accounts for th e ir superpersonal dignity and for the feeling of subordination with which we make the moral decision. Psychologically, th is origin is understandable. The rules not to s t e a l , not to k i l l , and so fo rth , were rules the enforcement of which was necessary for group preservation. As generations passed, individuals were conditioned to these ru le s; and in our own education we were subject to a conditioning process of the same kind. No wonder, then, th a t we feel ourselves on the receiving side of the moral imperatives; in fa c t, we are. If a feeling of duty is regarded as ch a ra cte r i s t i c for moral aims, such a conception mirrors the fa c t that moral aims were i n s t i l l e d into us fo rcib ly , whether through the authority of the fa th e r or of the teacher or by the pressure of the group in which we liv e d . 10 Thus, as a p ra c tic a l m atter, without regard to "philosophical p ro o fs," d ire c tio n s, or categorical impera tiv e s , observation indicates certain rules must be followed or g ro u p ^ preservation w ill not be p ossible. As previously noted, the outoook is b asic a lly humanistic--man as the center of things, with a bias toward Reichenbach, The Rise of S c ie n tif ic Philosophy, p . 285 . ^T he term "group," as applied to a group of people living together, ca rrie s the im plication of temporal dura tion beyond th a t of an in d iv id u a l's l i f e span. 28 the p r a c t i c a l or u t i l i t a r i a n point of view. The Western idea of Humanism is f i r s t id e n tif ie d and in sp ire d by the h i s t o r i c a l memory of the c la s s i c a l c i v i l i z a tio n . I ts f i r s t appearance in Europe as an organized body of thought was in I ta ly at the time of the Renaissance. At 12 th is time, i t was s t r i c t l y a secu la r d o ctrin e. The t r a d i t i o n was strengthened by the S c ie n tif ic Revolution, which formed the basis of the enlightenment and 13 l a t e r led to the lib e ra lis m of the 19th Century. The o rig in a l d e f in it io n of humanism was q u ite narrow and had to do more with those who taught or studied "human s t u d i e s , " 1^ e . g . , grammar, r h e to r ic , h is to r y , poetry, e t c . , against the background of the Greek or Roman c la s s ic s (ra th e r than C h r is t ia n i ty ) . Thus, Renaissance humanism was not a philosophical system or school. The current usage of the term "humanism" would be b e t t e r defined as: Willson H. Coates and Hayden V. White, The Ordeal of Liberal Humanism: An I n t e l l e c t u a l History of Western Europe (New York: McGraw-Hill Boole Co., 1970), Vol. T] p7 444. 13Ibid. ■^Willson H. Coates and Hayden V. White, The Emer gence of Liberal Humanism: An I n t e l l e c t u a l History of Western Europe (New York: McGraw-Hill Book Co., 1970), Vol. 1, p . 29 An a ttitu d e of mind which takes man as the e f fe c tive q u a lita tiv e center of the universe and as the sole responsible agent for the creation of order in the world of human a f f a ir s . 5 The modern humanist in s i s t s on the man as the cen t r a l agent in the world and requires continuous, but humane, re-examination and re-evaluation. The acceptance of a humanistic position s t i l l leaves one without any really p resc rip tiv e doctrine. One of the e a r l i e s t and most direct remedies was u tilita ria n is m as pro posed by Jeremy Bentham. U tilitaria n ism During the early 1800’s, Benthanism was v irtu a lly a synonym for u tilita ria n is m . Perhaps the best defin itio n available for u tilita ria n is m was that given by Bentham himself: Nature has placed mankind under the governance of two sovereign masters, pain and p le a su re . I t is for them alone to point out what we ought to do, as well as to determine what we sh all do. On the one hand the standard of right and wrong, on the other the chain of causes and e ffe c ts , are fastened to th e ir throne. They govern us in all we do, in a l l we say, in a l l we think: every e f f o rt we can make to throw off our subjection, w ill serve but to demonstrate and confirm i t . In words a man may pretend to abjure th e ir empire: but in r e a l ity he w ill remain subject to i t a l l the while. The p r i n ciple of u t i l i t y recognizes th is subjection, and assumes i t for the foundation of th at system, the object of which is to rear the fabric of f e l i c i t y by the hands of reason and of law. Systems which attempt to question 15I b i d . , p . 5. 30 i t , deal in sounds instead of sense, in caprice instead of reason, in darkness instead of l i g h t . 16 I t should be noted th at the basic assumption under lying u til ita r ia n is m is th at man is a ra tio n a l animal. The same assumption underlies c la s s ic a l economics. Relationship to City Design How can the e m p ir ic a l-s c ie n tific attitu d e toward knowledge and the h u m a n istic-u tilita ria n attitu d e toward normative problems be applied to the problem of c ity design and the stated desire to e f f e c t a Self-Perpetuating Steady State (SPSS)? As noted previously, the design and construction of a c ity is a task of great d i f f i c u l t y and consequences. For this reason, a more d e ta ile d than usual review has been made of some of the philosophical underpinnings of modern thought. In the design of a c i ty , we are faced with a problem of group preservation or survival over a considerable period of time, i . e . , we wish to e s ta b lis h our SPSS, at le a s t on a local b a s i s . In lig h t of the above, the procedure w ill be as follow s: 1. A se t of assumptions or axioms w ill be la id out. General observations w ill be taken as s u f f i c ie n t v alid a tio n . 1 Jeremy Bentham, An Introduction to the P rinciples of Morals and Legislation (London, 1823; New York, 19^8J, pp. 1- 2. 31 2. Their relevance to group preservation and a SPSS w ill be noted. 3. Various standards w ill be indicated (on a t e n t a tive basis and necessarily incomplete). 4. The standards should be derivable via deduction from the assumptions. This is a formidable task, far beyond the bounds of this d iss e rta tio n . Thus, various standards w ill be put forth te n ta tiv e ly , and as a subject of future debate. 5. At a very simple, non-rigorous level, some of the standards w ill be re la te d to the assumptions. The next section w ill sta te the assumptions, make note of any empirical j u s t i f i c a t i o n available, and re la te these axioms to the concept of group survival and the SPSS. Assumptions This section w ill se t forth the assumptions that w ill underlie the city design methodology. The assumptions w ill be stated , discussed, and some of the implications developed and described. As previously discussed, these assumptions involve normative judgments. In a formal fashion, in order to set up an a n a ly ti cal framework to handle the problems of the c ity , i t w ill be necessary to make some assumptions. A wide variety of assumptions are possible; the set chosen here is general in nature and perhaps somewhat i d e a l i s t i c , at le ast in lig h t of 32 contemporary p ra c tic e . However, in defense of these assump tio n s, a case can be made to the e ffe c t th a t, in the very long term, any c ity must conform in some fashion to these assumptions or perish. E ffec tiv e ly , a SPSS must be set up and maintained. The assumptions are: 1. The c ity is for the people th at w ill inhabit i t . I t must conform to human requirements and nature as fa r as possible (psychological, s o c io lo g ic a l, p o l i t i c a l ) . 2. The c ity must be constructed to conform to the local ecology. 3. The city must be designed and constructed in an economical fashion. 4. The preceding statements are assumed to hold over time and in the lig h t of ris k and uncertainty. Discussion Assumptions 1) and 2) are somewhat sweeping in nature and d i f f i c u l t in p ra c tic e to re a liz e . However, in view of the general h isto ry of c i t i e s and man's lim ited 17 experience with them, one can argue rath er strongly th at some such assumptions are necessary as a sa fety measure. 17 C itie s, as is well-known, are a recent phenomena. The e a r l i e s t probably dates about 8,000 to 10,000 years ago--and u n til recently, the percentage of the w orld's population liv in g in c i t i e s has been n e g lig ib le . 33 Some discussion w ill now be d ire c te d toward those facto rs and forces which have led to these assumptions. W e w ill then b r i e f l y discuss man and h is c i t i e s . While i t is f a i r l y c le a r th a t man has su c ce ssfu lly made the t r a n s i t i o n from hunting man to a g r ic u ltu r a l man, there is no re al guarantee th a t he has su c ce ssfu lly adapted to an urban environment. In f a c t , for sev eral reasons th a t w ill be discussed l a t e r , man's successful adaptation to the urban environment is in doubt. Man is c le a rly not at ease in his c i t i e s . There are a host of chronic problems b e s e ttin g the modern c ity ; c rise s appear to be endemic. The trash-garbage problem continues to explode. The public school, one of the underpinnings of American democracy, is near collapse. The " p la n t," public and p r iv a te , has d e te rio ra te d p a s t the point of rep a ir in many cases. There is a continual fin a n c ia l c r i s i s . Even the mental s ta te of the population seems to be d e t e r i o r a t ing. To quote Ian L. McHarg: What of the h e a rt of the c i ty , where the gleaming towers r is e from the d ir ty s k i r t s of poverty? Is i t lik e midtown Manhattan where twenty per cent of the population was found to be in d is tin g u is h a b le from the p a tie n ts in mental h o sp ita ls? Both stimulus and s tr e s s liv e here with the b itc h goddess success. As you look at the faceless prisms do you recognize the home of "Anomie"?18 18 Ian L. McHarg, Design with Nature (Garden City, New York: The Natural History P ress, 1969) , p. 20. 34 I t may well be that some of the root causes of the 19 recurring rio ts and disturbances in metropolitan areas spring from ignoring the implications of assumptions (above) which r e f le c t some of man's basic needs. Something is clearly amiss in the urban environment; precisely what is amiss is not clear at this time. Assump tions 1) and 2), p a rtic u la rly 1), were made in response to this problem. It is next necessary to expand b rie fly on the im pli cations of the set of assumptions made above. Implications The f i r s t assumption deals with the d irec t r e la tio n ship between man and his c i tie s . I t is realized that this is a very complex problem. Certainly, i t s f u ll re a liz a tio n is beyond our a b i l i t i e s today. It is an area which desper ately requires research. What does i t mean to say c itie s are for people? Really, this statement implies that a considerable number 19 The problem is perennial. L. Munford (in The City and History) maintains that the Hammurabi code is a response to disorders in Mesopotamian c i tie s . In Rome, the Marian Rebellion was urban; la te r , there were the rio ts associated with Catalan and, s t i l l l a t e r , the Grachii (or corn law r io ts ) . The Constantinople Riots of 500 A.D., between the Reds, Whites, and Greens, whose colors represented the colors of chariot racing teams, were urban phenomena. In P aris, the revolution and the 1871 Commune occurred. London was torn with rio ts from 1830 to 1840, attendant on the repeal of the Speenhamland Laws of 1834. More recently, we have the 1965-1970 rio ts in U.S. c i tie s . 35 of q u a n titie s (or variables) are kept within ce rtain lim its. Some of these might be square feet of housing per person, per cap ita income, square fe e t of recrea tio n a l space, square feet of public space, per ca p ita investment in various pub l i c works, water q u a lity , a i r q u a lity , e tc. The l i s t of things affectin g urban l i f e is rath er long, and, unfortun a te ly , i t is not c e rta in th at such a l i s t can be completed at th is time, due to lack of knowledge. W e face the e x i s t e n t i a l i s t ' s dilemma W e are forced to act even though we do not have a l l of the answers. In any case, assumption 1) requires th a t we: 1. E stablish a se t of what I would c a ll Life Qual i t y Standards (symbolically, T 's ). 2. Attempt to quantify these standards, e . g . , l e t the standards be described by a set of numbers, P s . Thus, standard i is noted as P . Standard i may require a set of numbers (e .g ., a i r p o llu tio n ); thus, P may be a m u lti numbered quantity, i . e . , a v e c to r . If so, i t w ill be denoted as I7 ^ . 3. Somehow, in view of assumption 3), an attempt to r e la te these r 's to cost must be made, i . e . , get T(p), where p is p rice. The second assumption requires a sim ila r procedure, a s e t of ecological sta n d a rd s. (They w ill be denoted by EL's.) Two points should be made clear: 36 1. Although the city can conform to local ecologi cal requirements, the overall ecological standards must be set at much higher levels, e .g ., regional, national or even global. 2. The ecological standards w ill in teract with the Life Quality Standards and vice versa. In many cases, the ecological standards w ill set upper or lower lim its on the Life Quality Standards. The th ird and fourth assumptions, that the city must be designed economically and over time, re su lt in several c o rre la tiv e s : 1. I n i t i a l costs plus operating costs must be minimized. 2. Cost minimization must take place under the set of constraints imposed by the Life Quality Standards and the ecological standards and with consideration of risks and uncertainty. 3. Both of these costs must be minimized over time and space. 4. Then the minimization should be done under con ditions of risk and uncertainty. Standards General The need for several sets of standards has been shown to be a consequence of the set of assumptions made 37 above. This section w ill attempt to define those standards in more d e tail and in a formal fashion. The discussion w ill be punctuated by examples for c la r ity . Ecological Man--urban, ru ra l, or hunter--must live in balance with his environment. Man is a part of the chain of life which s ta r t s with the generation of negative entropy and the storage of energy via photosynthesis, proceeds through a variety of food chains to man, and closes with man’s extrac tion of the negative entropy, and the return of the d iso r ganized material to the environment. Is man living in harmony and balance with his envi ronment? It would seem not. To reproduce a quotation from Ian McHarg's book, Design with Nature: Man in space is enabled to look upon the d istan t earth, a c e le s tia l orb, a revolving sphere. He sees i t to be green, from the verdure on the land, algae green ing the oceans, a green c e le s tia l f r u i t . Looking closely at the earth, he perceives blotches, black, brown, gray and from these extend dynamic tentacles upon the green epidermis. These blemishes he recog nizes as the c i tie s and works of man and asks, "Is man but a planetary disease ?"20 Two sets of standards must be set; they are Ecologi cal Standards and Life Quality Standards. , The Ecological Standards refer to the e n tire l i f e process, not only man but 2 0 Loren Eiseley: Lecture in the se rie s , The House W e Live I n , WCAU-TV, February 5, 1961 (quoted from Ian L. McHarg, Design with Nature) . 38 b a c t e r i a l , p la n t, in s e c t, animal. They serve to set some lim its on Life Quality Standards. I t is re a liz e d that the ecological standards do not d ire c tly bear on the problems associated with the configur ing of a c ity . I t w i ll, however, be shown th a t the ecologi cal standards w ill a f f e c t, or at le a s t lim it, some of the Life Quality Standards. The ecological system may be seen ra th e r d ire c tly with the aid of Figure 2. The process s t a r t s with the p ro cess of photosynthesis. Thus, the sun's rad ia tio n in te ra c ts with plant l i f e and the chemicals and water picked up by the p la n t to form a wide v a rie ty of rath er complex chemical compounds- - carbohydrates, sta rc h es, proteins (the amino a c id s), f a t s , e tc . Some ( f a ts , starches) are high in energy; a l l are highly organized. Photosynthesis is the 21 source of energy for e s s e n tia lly a l l l i f e on e a r t h . In the next step of the ecological c i r c l e , the plant 2 2 l i f e is used, for the most p a r t , by one of the "lower" forms of animal. The lower forms are u t i l i z e d by the next step up the ladder, e . g . , man, a wolf. The ste p s, from photosynthess to man, form a ty p ic al food chain. 21 There i s , I b eliev e, a single b a c te ria which obtains energy from the oxidation of iron. 22 The term "lower" here only refers to the nearness to the primary photosynthesis process. On th is scale, c a r nivores (sharks, c a ts, wolves) are higher than the omnivores (crows, man, scavengers). SOLAR ENERGY CHEMICALS, WATER C — — — — c* A > A' BACTERIAL ACTION B 1 1 1 LOW ER ANIMAL "HIGHER" PHOTOSYNTHESIS ------1------ ------ ► LIFE ANIMAL LIFE 1 (M AN) BIOLOGICAL DEATH SCAVENGERS B' Figure 2. The Ecological System w VO 40 All organisms die and, through the action of scaven gers and b a c te ria l action, rev ert to the water and other component chemicals of which they are composed. Presumably, at some l a t e r date, the chemicals w ill, or may, again take p art in an ecological cycle. I t should also be noted th a t a l l organisms have a food chain. To be precise: 1. A like chain for every other e n tity exhibiting the c h a ra c te ris tic s of l i f e . 2. The interconnection or in te ra c tio n of the chains and each e n tity upon i t s e l f and every other e n t i t y . Notice that any fac to r th at "broke" the ecological chain, e .g ., at AA' (cut off plant foods) or BB' (prevented dead organism from getting to b acteria) or CC' (prevented b a c te ria l a c tio n ) , would very quickly lead to the to ta l extinction of l i f e on earth. Note fu rth er th a t the natural s t a t e , e .g ., th at sta te that prevailed before the la s t several thousand years over most of the e a r t h 's surface (corresponding to man's inhabitation of the e a rth ), is very sta b le. The overall system of l i f e is rath er slow to adapt to a new se t of circumstances due to the u l t r a s t a b i l i t y of 2 3 DNA, the basic genetic m aterial. Conversely, the system 2 3 Erwin Schrodinger, What is Life? (Garden City, New York: Doubleday and Company, In c ., 1956), p. 63. A h alf- l i f e of about 20,000 to 25,000 years is indicated. 41 is very s ta b le . To jump ahead b r i e f l y , the o v e ra ll ecological system provides a n a tu ra l lev el of "Life Q u a lity . " This is i l l u s tr a te d in Figure 3, where a sin g le sp e c ie s, man, is "broken out" of the ecological system. In the n a tu ra l s t a t e , i t is assumed th a t man's e f f e c t on the o v e ra ll ecology is n i l . To see the n e c e ss ity of e s ta b lis h in g Ecological Standards, i t is necessary to go one step f u rth e r. W e w ill take into account man’s technology, h is accumulated c a p ita l, and his d esires for a l i f e which includes a large number of "unnatural" a c t i v i t i e s and a r t i f a c t s . W e must f u rth e r take into account the fa c t th a t man's d esire s and technology can now a ffe c t the plan etary ecology. The s it u a t i o n is i l l u s t r a t e d in Figure 4. As can be seen, the technological and i n d u s t r i a l processes are now b io lo g ical and physical forces which can a f f e c t the ecology. The e ffe c ts are more frequently than not d is a s tro u s . Thus, at several po in ts in Figure 4, i t w ill be necessary to enforce some type of standard to preserve the p lanetary ecology. Id e a lly , i t would be d e sira b le to apply a l l of the r e s t r i c t i o n s at one p o in t in the process - -before withdrawing the raw m aterials from the environment, before using them in manufacturing, and by r e s t r i c t i n g consumption. At th is time, i t is doubtful i f enough is r e a l ly known to accomplish th is ob je ctiv e. Thus, a t th is time and with the EARTH1S ECOLOGICAL SYSTEM (Very Stable over Long Periods of Time) NATURAL "LIFE QUALITY (As i t occurs with Man liv in g as an animal in the environment) gure 3. The Ecology and Life Quality Standards \ ES » '~ N 4 ESI 4 ES» BIOLOGICAL- PHYSICAL EFFECTS ENERGY, ANIMAL LIFE (Negative Entropy) LIFE QUALITY OF CIVILIZED M A N EARTH' S ECOLOGICAL SYSTEM CIVILIZATION (Technology, Industry, Energy Use) Figure 4. Factors Affecting Life Quality -P* 04 44 c u rren t e x ten t of our understanding of the ecology, i t w i l l probably be necessary to proceed h e u r i s t i c a l l y . E sta b lish in g the e c o lo g ical standards is a very d i f f i c u l t task because the ranges of time involved are very long and the e f f e c t s are slow to appear. Once they appear, A 1 they are d i f f i c u l t to stop. Thus, the in tro d u c tio n of a mutagenic into the environment might ex h ib it i t s f u l l impact h a l f a dozen generations from now. F urther, many ec o lo g ical standards w i l l , at le a s t s u p e r f i c i a l l y , be remotely r e l a t e d to human l i f e . Thus, even i f an in s e c ti c id e could be invented which was e n t i r e l y harmless to human l i f e , i t might s t i l l be necessary to ban or lim it i t s use i f i t attac k ed some o th e r c r i t i c a l element of a l i f e chain. For example, the s e n s i t i v i t y of plankton to DDT is probably i t s most d ev astatin g fe a tu re . Some very broad p h y sic al problems w ill also have to be attack ed . For example, some of these are: 1. The global gas balance problem. How much of and what gases may be re le a se d into the atmosphere w ithout u p s e ttin g i t s n a tu ra l balance? ( I t is now known th a t chemi cal reac tio n s s im ila r to chain re a c tio n s can occur in urban atmospheres. They propagate a t ra te s of se v eral hundred 2 4 This is much lik e imparting a v e lo c ity to a very large mass v ia a small f o rc e - -th e re is a s u b s t a n t i a l lag in b u ild in g up the v e lo c ity . I t is equally d i f f i c u l t to stop the o b ject once the v e lo c ity has been imparted. 45 2 5 feet/second and cover dozens of square m iles.) 2. The thermal problem. This is rela ted to the gas balance problem as the composition of the atmosphere affects the overall heat balance. It w ill be necessary to consider to ta l energy use. There may be an upper level to per capita energy consumption. 3. Some basic a g ric u ltu ra l land use studies should be undertaken or, at le a s t, the re su lts of previous studies should be pulled together and synthesized. Standards must be imposed on such items as: a. Cultivating land with rapid water run-off. b. Irrig a tio n . (Irrig a tio n , as usually con ducted, is a short-run proposition. The so il is poisoned by s a lts within 100 to 200 years.) c. Total chemical s o il balance. It is not at a ll certain that the application of simple chemical f e r t i l i zers is s u ffic ie n t to maintain f e r t i l i t y of the s o il. 4. The overall water quantity-quality problem must be reviewed. It is clear th a t we are "mining" water at a very rapid rate . In parts of the West, the water table is dropping at about five feet per year. In some places (Okla homa and parts of Wyoming), the water table has dropped 1000 25 Lowell Wayne, Chemistry of the Urban Atmosphere (Unpublished), Working Paper, Los Angeles Air Pollution Control D is tr ic t, 1966, p. 151-165. 46 feet in the la s t 100 years. This clea rly is not a steady- s ta te s itu a tio n . The above l i s t i n g of some of the general ecological problems which w ill have to be faced, understood, and for which standards must be s e t , should not be taken as exhaus tiv e. It is only i l l u s t r a t i v e . Now, i t is possible to see clearly the rela tio n sh ip between Life Quality Standards and Ecological Standards. Thus, the amount of food we have depends on DDT, which can ra d ic a lly a ffe c t the plankton,and through them the gas balance (75 percent of the e a r t h ’s oxygen comes from plank ton). The amount of energy we use per capita (which strongly a ffe c ts our standard of living) may have to be lim ited. Water, food, and in d u s tria l production are clearly re la ted . Before going on to the Life Quality Standards, a fin a l note is necessary. The b io lo g is t generally stops here. U nfortunately, the preceding d e fin itio n or d escrip tion of ecology is incomplete. There are several other systems which must be considered, at le a s t in the case of man, e . g . , Social/Psychological systems, P o litica l/O rg a n iza tio n a l systems, and an Economic or Resource Allocation sys- 2 g tern. These w ill be discussed in some d e ta il l a t e r . 2 6 Many of the new l e f t , hippie, or commune people r e je c t a purely economic organization of l i f e . In t h is , they deceive themselves. One way or another, they are a l l o cating scarce resources, but, to quote Dr. J. Niedercorn, ’’perhaps with d iffe re n t objectives in mind.” 47 In order to further simplify use and reference to the Ecological Standards, the following notation w ill be u tilize d : Eo . is the minimum acceptable level of the i th standard. Em^ is the maximum acceptable level of the ith standard. These values define the limits within which the values of the variables must lie . The line over the E refers to the fact that each standard may require several numbers to represent i t properly. Thus, the E may be a vector quantity. E^ w ill represent the desired value of the standard. *Vi(p) represent the improvement (distance away from a maximum or minimum) as a function of price. Thus, we can summarize. W e must have: E . < E- < E • 01 1 mi and further: E. = E + E . , s l x - vi (p) where E^ is an extreme value. Life Quality Standards This section will begin with a discussion of l i f e quality standards, why they are required, and what they are. They w ill then be cla ssifie d and, as examples, some tentative l i s t s w ill be drawn up. The standards w ill then be cast in 48 a q u a n tita tiv e framework. Man fa c e s --in the very long term--a s e t of r e q u ir e ments which are generally in c o n f lic t and probably not resolvable. He wants peace and se cu rity and excitement, very f a s t tra n sp o rta tio n and a high degree of automation and no p o llu tio n . He would lik e complete freedom and com p le te physical se cu rity . He wants "free e n te rp ris e " and complete economic se c u rity . These problems are world-wide; they apply to both the c ity and the h in terlan d s. However, due to the concen tr a ti o n of people, s tr u c tu re s , machines, technological devices, organizations, knowledge, e t c . , the problems are more c r i t i c a l in urban areas. I t would be desirable to design a c ity or an urban area in such a fashion th a t most of these problems, c o n tra d ic tio n s, and clashes are minimized or elim inated. To do so, three things are necessary. 1. The problems and c o n flic ts must be c la s s ifie d . 2. Each s ig n ific a n t c l a s s i f i c a t i o n must be defined in terms of q u an tifiab le v a ria b le s , as fa r as po ssib le. I t is realize d th at some w ill be very d i f f i c u l t , i f not impos s ib le to quantify; other q u an tific a tio n s w ill completely r e s t on normative judgements. 3. Standard or perm issible ranges must be s e t for each relevant v a ria b le . Some of these standards w ill be set 49 via the ecological standards. As these standards w ill a f f e c t a l l aspects of l i f e in the c i t y , they w ill be c a lle d Life Quality S tan d ard s. There is l i t t l e doubt th a t s e ttin g many of the l i f e q u a lity standards w ill involve methods and procedures which breech the boundaries of economics. In f a c t , the s p e c i f i c a tion and subsequent measurement of many of the standards implies some general framework of s o c ia l accounting. This framework i s , at th is time, only p a r tly in ex isten c e. Some of the standards w ill be d i f f i c u l t to define and even more d i f f i c u l t to s e t , even though they are very r e a l. As an example, one such standard w i l l be developed in more d e t a i l . The s i t u a t i o n has to do with the need of animals ( m a m m a l s ) for open space. The requirement is th a t concerned with crowding; in our l i s t above, th is would be covered by indoor-outdoor square footage and privacy. The problem is discussed in 2 7 some d e t a il in E. H a ll's The Hidden Dimension. Two d i f fe re n t s itu a tio n s are discussed; one is an experiment and the other is a n a tu ra l occurrence. The experiment co n siste d of placing groups of Nor wegian r a t s in large cages and furnishing them with unlim i te d amounts of food. In a very short time, populations b u i l t up to hundreds of times the n a tu ra l le v e ls . At th is 2 7 Edward H all, The Hidden Dimension (Garden City, New York: Doubleday and Company, 1966), p. 23-30. 50 point, a l l semblance of natural order disappears. Typi cally, mothers cease to care for th e ir young and fighting and t a il- b itin g become prevalent. Some of the rats become homosexual, others crouch in corners most of the time. On occasion, groups of rats form and attack every other rat 2 8 they meet. In summary, i t appears th a t, when population density exceeds certain lim its, the society appears to "go mad" and i t s members indulge in a wide variety of antisocial behavior. The second situation involves deer on Fire Island. This isolated environment and i t s deer population has been watched for a number of years. In this case, when the popu lation reaches some c r iti c a l level, there is a "die-off"--a large number of apparently healthy animals ju st d ie --there 29 was no lack of food. Again, crowding has produced very adverse effects. As a final note on the complexities and possible effects of some of the life quality parameters, the follow ing quote from one Dr. Gableman is reproduced here: Everything from in fin ite rows of "ticky-tacky" subdivision houses to minute amounts of chemicals in goods has it s effect/draws i t s response from the human animal. Allergic reaction of obscure causation and mental states including anger, unsocial behavior and instances of poor judgment may ultimately be diagnosed 2 g There is a biological explanation of what happened. 29I b i d ., p. 8. 51 and controlled through more careful management of the surrounding environment.30 C la s s ific a tio n and Brief L isting There are various ways in which the Life Quality Standards might be c l a s s i f i e d ; one such is as follows: o Economic 0 Psychological 0 Social o Biological o Environmental 0 Physical 0 E soteric They could also be c l a s s i f i e d as being q u an tifiab le and n o n -q u a n tifia b le . Some of the more q u a n tifiab le stan d ards might be: o Per cap ita income o Housing (square fe e t per capita) o Recreational f a c i l i t i e s (per capita) o Educational p la n t (per capita) o Health-care f a c i l i t i e s (per capita) o Public safety investments o Water q u a lity o Air q u ality 30 Outdoor America, The Izaak Walton Magazine, July 1970, Vol. 35, No. 7, p. 3. 52 o Food quality o Low toxicity levels o Low radioactive contamination Some of the more subtle standards might be items such a s : o Open (outdoor) space o Volume of green material (plants, bushes) o Views, vistas o Access to streams, rivers (of a given quality) o Bodies of water (of a given quality) o V isib ility (miles) on a clear (non-foggy) day o Access to h i l l s , mountains, plains, beaches o Attractive structures, buildings, roads, bridges o Certain animals, birds (hunting) o Fish (fishing) o Privacy requirements Clearly, i t is d if fic u lt i f not impossible to affix prices to some of the above quantities. Some of them are obviously of import to man, at least i f he wishes to lead the "good l i f e . " Life Quality Standards Framework It will now be necessary to attempt to cast the Life Quality Standards into some type of a framework that w ill be useful in laying out the methodology of city design. 53 F i r s t , the l i f e quality standards obviously are a se rie s of numbers, probably best expressed as a se rie s of vectors, T \ . Thus, T might be the vector specifying a i r q u a lity , the composites might be CO (ppm), S02 (ppm), NOX (ppm), etc. A ltern ately , might represent housing. The series of numbers could then include square f e e t, s tru c tu re type, stru c tu re age, maintenance s t a t e , number of windows, type of u t i l i t i e s , etc. Now the T\ must be fu rth er s p l i t to account for minimum and maximum le v els; thus: is the minimum acceptable level. T . is the maximum acceptable level, mi r When there is a minimum value (T 4), w e could w rite: v 01 ^i " roi + rvi(p) where represents the improvement possible as a func tion of cost (or p ric e , p ) , which is available to be traded off. Thus, might represent the minimum grams of carbo hydrates, f a ts , p ro tein s, e t c . , necessary to liv e . This amount must be provided for a l l . Lives above this can be traded off. The second case is when there is a maximum value of r if r . = r . - Y ., . * i mi vi(p) 54 In th is case, increased cost is a sso cia ted with decreased le v els of Tj. In some cases, there are lower and upper l i m i t s , th u s : The w ill depend on how fa r away i t is possible to go from T . and T ^ sim ultaneously. 01 mi J The foregoing format w ill s u f fic e to specify a f o r mat th a t can be used in the c o s t-b e n e f it trade which w ill specify the general design of the c ity . A p r a c t ic a l note w ill be added at th is p o in t. Although i t is methodologically and a r t i s t i c a l l y s a tis f y in g to specify a se t of standards and conveniently drop the e n tire m atter, i t is not very r e a l i s t i c . In actual p r a c tic e , some s o rt of monitoring system should be devised. Thus, in any c ity ac tu a lly b u i l t , some attempt to measure or monitor the standards should be made. Thus, an attempt to measure T ^ should be made. This may be d i f f i c u l t ; however, i t w ill be assumed th a t estim ates can be obtained: y ^ . The are estim ates of the l i f e q u a lity standards made from the data a v a ila b le. This w i l l c le a rly be necessary as many of the standards w ill not be d ir e c tly measured, or at le a s t not covered in the e x istin g inform ation-gathering system. The are differen ced with the , producing a s e t of e rro rs : 55 The error, or error signal, can then be used as the basis to make adjustments or corrections in the city to bring the in line with actual conditions. This is an example of feedback. The Relationship Between Ecological and Life Quality Standards I t is now possible to re la te the ecological s ta n dards to the lif e quality standards. F ir s t, i t should be recalled that many of the ecological standards are set based on considerations exogenous to the urban area, or it s h in terlands, actually under consideration. Some must actually be set at global le v e ls , e .g ., use of chemicals, radioactive 31 m aterials, possibly even energy use. For convenience, the ecological standards w ill be represented by a set of vectors: £ ^Qi ’ w^ere i = 1)2 ...N. (The standards are conceived of as vectors only to f a c i l i t a t e c la s s ific a tio n ; thus, a standard on pesticides would amount to specifying dozens of values, one or more for each chemical.) In many cases, but obviously not a l l , the ecological standards w ill have implications and place various con s tr a i n ts on the l i f e quality standards. When a l l of the 31 Note that lim itations on global q u an tities are usually a to ta l use lim it, not a per capita lim it. Thus, with small populations, per capita use could remain high. 56 im plications are worked out, a se t of lim iting values in T should r e s u lt ; thus, ty p ic ally : r. > r . . 1 — 01 ’ or: A lte rn a te ly : r , < r, < r , . ok — k — mk CHAPTER I I I REVIEW OF DISCIPLINES UTILIZED IN THE APPROACH This chapter w ill discuss the approach to the p ro b lem of laying out a general framework fo r the e f f i c i e n t and economical design of a c i t y under a r a th e r comprehensive s e t of c o n s tra in ts . The d is c ip lin e s necessary to th is endeavor w ill be b r i e f l y reviewed. They w ill include some p a r ts of c l a s s i c a l economics and planning, as well as systems a n a ly s is and the c o s t-b e n e f it approach. The chapter w ill be organized as follows: F i r s t , the idea of an i n t e r d i s c i p l i n a r y approach w ill be defined and discussed. Then, a b r i e f resume of se v eral of the r e l e vant d is c ip li n e s w ill be p rese n ted . F in a lly , they w ill be r e la te d to the c e n tra l t o o l , the c o s t-b e n e f it a n a ly s is . The d is c ip lin e s involved are economics (including c l a s s i c a l lo catio n theory, welfare economics, and the theory of s o c ia l c o s ts ) , c o s t- b e n e f it a n a ly s is , systems a n a ly s is , tr a n s p o r ta tio n systems a n a ly s is , and planning. Woven throughout the d i s s e r t a t i o n w ill be continued referen ce to , and use of, the various elements of the b i o lo g ic a l , p h y sio lo g ic a l, p sy ch o lo g ical, and s o c io lo g ic a l s ciences . 57 58 In te rd isc ip lin a ry Approach In sp ite of the fact th at there have been great in- cre ses in substantive knowledge in a wide variety of field s in the physical and social sciences, our a b ility to cope with the problems rpesented to us by our social-economic system is , at b est, limited. This appears to be even more true in the urban envi ronment. Part of the problem is doubtless due to compart- mentalization and, hopefully, part of the solution lies in m u ltidisciplinary approaches to some of the principal urban problems. This d iss e rta tio n w ill adopt an in te rd isc ip lin a ry approach to the problem of city design. Although the core of the analysis w ill center on a modified cost-benefit approach, a variety of other disciplines w ill be touched upon in effecting the required synthesis. Specific Disciplines Involved The primary d iscip lin es which w ill be brought to bear w ill be b r ie f ly mentioned and then reviewed in more d e ta il. The d isciplines most immediately involved are: 1. Economic analysis. Several approaches w ill be discussed and u tiliz e d ; they include: o General economic analysis o Location theory o Welfare economics 59 o Theory of so c ia l costs and e x t e r n a l i t i e s . 2. C ost-benefit an a ly sis. This w ill include con- of: 0 Inclusion of c o s t s , b en efits 0 Valuation of each 0 Discounting 0 Constraints o C r i t e r i a . 3. Systems an a ly sis. This w ill include the use of the general system approach, which u t i l i z e s a wide v a rie ty of q u a n tita tiv e methods to proceed from a s e t of desired goals to a set of possible so lu tio n s. A short l i s t (far from exhaustive, however) would include: o Use of block diagrams o Flow diagrams o Linear and dynamic programming o Simulation, modeling. 4. Transportation an a ly sis. While th is could be considered as p a rt of the location theory, i t is best "bro ken out" due to i t s importance in the s it u a t i o n under con s id e ra tio n . Transport is r e a lly the backbone or skeleton of the c ity . 5. Planning. The tools and methods of urban p la n ning w ill be discussed and put to use when p o ssib le . They w ill include: 60 o The General or comprehensive plan o Land use and land use analysis o Zoning o Housing studies o Physical development planning. In the actual detailed design of a c ity , a dozen other disciplines would have to play a role, e .g ., arch itec ture, e le c tric a l engineering, t r a f f i c engineering, mechanical and civ il engineering, sanitary engineering, recreational f a c i lity design, public he'alth sp e c ia lists , etc. Obviously, a ll of the above cannot be included in this analysis. And this need not be, as this d issertatio n is only directed to ward specifying the major a c tiv itie s in an urban region. The key point in an in terd iscip lin ary tudy is that account must be taken of each of the major disciplines and th eir relationship to the other involved areas. Thus, i t must be realized that biological and environmental consider ations in teract and have definite costs. The design must consider ecological-biological problems, th e ir relationship, and th e ir costs. Thus, for example, the transportation analysis has both economic and environmental effects. Economics General This section w ill b rie fly review some of the fields of economics which are of peculiar relevance to the problem 61 of city design. It is not intended, or required, that these reviews be exhaustive in each area. Rather, they w ill review the principal approaches to the areas with emphasis on the re la tio n to urban or city design. In a very general sense, a ll of economics is r e l e vant to urban design--we are faced with the fundamental problems of economical and e f f ic ie n t allo catio n of resources to achieve a given set of b e n e f i t s . However, certain special branches of economics are more d irec tly involved; hence, emphasis w ill be placed on these areas. They are: Location theory Welfare theory Theory of social costs. I t should be noted th at the subject reviews that follow are intended to be only p a r tia l reviews. They are p a r tia l for several reasons: 1. They are directed toward subjects in each area which are relevant to the topic at hand. 2. They are p a r tia l for p ra c tic a l reasons. A com plete review of any one of the above noted topics would occupy several hundred pages. 3. They are only intended to convey the central ideas of each discipline. 62 Location Theory This sectio n w ill review c la s s i c a l location theory and i t s more modern v a ria n ts . Location theory, both of the firm and the consumer, are r e la te d to the task of c ity design. The approaches used in location theory w ill then be compared with the problems associated with c ity design. The f i r s t p a rt of th is section w ill review the c l a s s i c a l lo c atio n theory, as set fo rth by Ricardo, Von Thiinen, and LCsch. The next sectio n w ill consider the modern approach of Isard. The th ir d sectio n w ill consider, b r i e f l y , some contemporary work. The l a s t section w ill discuss the r e l a tionship between lo c atio n theory and c ity design. C lassical Location Theory C lassical lo c atio n theory followed two basic paths; the f i r s t s ta rte d with Ricardo^ and was a theory of d if f e r - 2 ent land q u a lity . The second o rig in ated with Von Thiinen 3 and was developed by Losch. The l a t t e r includes tra n s p o r ta tio n costs in i t s product costs. ^Piero S ra ffa, ed ., The Works and Correspondence of David Ricardo, Vol. 1, On the~Principles of P o l i t i c a l Econ~ omy and Taxation (Cambridge, England: U niversity Press, i m i — --------------------------------------- 2 August Losch, The Economics of Location (New York and London: Yale U niversity Press, 1954). 3I b id . 63 Ricardian Approach Ricardo's location theory is called a Theory of Land 4 Rent. According to Ricardo, land rent depends on d i f f e r ences between the "productive powers" of a number of d i f f e r ent plots of land. A nalytically, Ricardo's theory can be set forth as follows. Assume a set of plots of land in descending order of productivity , L2, . . . L^. Assume various amounts of labor (1) and capital (c) are applied to L^, L2 , . . . L^. Thus, one could write: q2 = L2 ( 1 , c) k « • • * * qk = Lk tl,c ) and qx < q2 < q3 . Remember that q^ ... q2 are here assumed to be the amounts of a single commodity produced by various q u a litie s of land. (The quality decreases as the index goes up.) Now consider the cost of the labor and cap ital to each plot of land to produce the same yield; denote CO^ as the amount of capital and labor necessary on plot 1 (highest quality la n d ), then C02 for the next highest, etc. Note the q^, . . . q^ are now equal. Next, look at the ra tio of production to cost, i . e . , the p r i c e ; we have: ^Sraffa, e d . , The Works of Ricardo, p. 70-71. 64 q l q 7 q k J- f I* y J • * « IV • c u ^ co j C03 arjj But the market w ill permit only one p r i c e . Thus, the r a tio s given above, q^/CO^, must somehow be brought into eq uality. One way to do th is would be to add a number to C O -^ (the sm allest CO), a second to C02» a th ird to CO^, e tc. The numbers to be added w ill be denoted R-^, R2, etc. I f the numbers are properly selected , the ra tio s can be restored to equality as the market requires. Thus, we have: ql q2 qk C01 + R1 ' C02 * R2 " ' ’ ' COk + Rk with = 0. This set of numbers, R^ . . . R^, is r e n t s . Note that the rent on p lot j is re a lly fixed by the rent on p lot j+ l - - i n fa c t, the rent on a l l plots is fixed by the poorest land (in the example, plot k) . Ricardo thus considered rent as r e s u ltin from d i f fe r e n tia l land q u a l itie s . Thus, the ric h e s t, most f e r t i l e land would be s e ttle d f i r s t and rent would only appear i f lands of the second level of q u ality were brought into use. Hence, while not e x p lic itly tre a tin g tra n sp o rta tio n , Ricardo has put forward a scheme of how some a c tiv i tie s w ill locate and how an undeveloped area w ill develop. Von Thiinen's Approach One of the e a r l i e s t attempts at location theory is that due to Von Thiinen. Von Thiinen's approach was actu ally 65 an a g r ic u ltu r a l location scheme. The c i t y , i t s commerce and in d u stry , were considered to be given . 5 Von Thunen's analysis resu lted in a s e rie s of con c e n tric rings around the c ity . The successive rings were given over to (in increasing distance from the c i t y ) : Ring 1. Truck Gardens Ring 2. Forest Products Ring 3. Heavy Field Crops Ring 4. Cereal Grain Ring 5. Grazing Ring 6 . Wilderness While based s t r i c t l y on tra n s p o rta tio n c o s ts , Von Thiinen did consider, in a sense, the q u a lity of tra n s p o rta tio n . This fa c to r has yet to be r e a lly in te g ra te d into modern tra n s p o rta tio n theory. Thus, he considered the prob lems asso ciated with shipping one commodity in two s ta te s , £ one of which cost more to ship. In a s im ila r fashion, although c a t t l e weights were high, they are located in Ring 5 (next to the f a r t h e s t o u t ) , as they can be driven in to m arket. Losch's Approach This approach s t a r t s by making several assumptions; they a r e : 5Losch, The Economics of Location, p. 36. 6I b i d . , p. 37. 66 1. A f l a t , featureless plain. 2. Isotropic transport cost. 3. Land is everywhere of the same quality. 4. Transport costs are a lin ear function of d i s tance (and presumably w eight). 5. Competition and free entry must also be assumed. Then, i f = the amount of a product demanded, we a s s e r t : qD - q B Cp) . Price at the point of manufacture (XqYq) i s pQ; then, at point r, some distance from XqYq: p = Pq + t r (per pound, item) where t is the tran sp o rt rate . For sim plicity, look at the demand only along the x axis and, fu rth er, assume demand is a lin ear function of price; thus, qD = qD0 ‘ kP ’ qD0 • k(> 0 * tx) (in this case, r = x ) , or qD = CqD0 ' kP0> ' ktx ’ g Figure 5 shows qQ p lo tted against x. This could obviously 7 I t should be noted th a t, i f relativ e location of the land were to be considered as an element of land qual ity , Ricardo's approach could most likely be carried through and should exhibit a ll of the elements of the transport- oriented location theory, o Losch, The Economics of Location, p. 106. 67 be generalized in any d irec tio n , i . e . , an axis 90 degrees from the x axis and perpendicular to the axis. Revolving Figure 5 about q^, one obtains a cone, as pictured in Figure a 6 . The boundary of the c i r c le - - t h e base of the cone--is: qD0 " kp0 rmax " " Ft ’ Obviously, a second producer could set up production at a distance of 2rmax from the above (Figure 7).^9 As noted by Losch, c irc le s are not space f i l l i n g , i . e . , there are l i t t l e curved " tria n g le s" of area th a t are l e f t out. Hence for p ra c tic a l purposes, Losch assumed th a t 11 the demand circ les become hexagons (Figure 8). The hexa gons are obviously s p a c e -fillin g . As is obvious from the l a s t equation, r is depen- ^ max 1 dent on the p a r tic u la r product's demand function and how much of i t a person would want to purchase, i . e . , one seldom buys less than a thousand or so pounds of car. Thus, r c max w ill be d iffe re n t for each product. Thus, the Loschian plane is covered by overnetworks of hexagons of d iffe re n t siz es (much lik e several sizes of chicken wire overlapping) . The rather small amount of empirical evidence which e x ists--a n d th a t usually given appears in Losch--deals with 9Ibid. 10I b i d . , p. 110. Distance Figure 5. Demand Versus Distance 69 Figure 6 . The Demand Cone Figure 7. M ultiple rfenmnd-Areas 71 Figure 8. Demand Hexagons 72 the ru ral midwest. To quote L6'sch: I have measured the minimum distance separating towns in Iowa of d iffe re n t s i z e - c l a s s e s , and have obtained c le a r-c u t frequency curves for them ... The r e s u lts are very good, too, for a group of other p r a i r i e s ta te s , I l l i n o i s , Indiana, and Ohio, even though here the i r r e g u l a r i t i e s are g r e a t e r. . . 12 Thus, i t appears in the correct circumstance, the L6‘schian overlapping networks theory seems to have some v a l id ity . Contemporary Location Theory - Isard The p o s s i b i l i t i e s open to location theory are very e ffe c tiv e ly put in mathematical form by Walter Isard in his 13 work, Location and Space Economy. In what Isard describes as "Weberian Theory Restated and G e n e ra liz e d ," ^ the t r a n s p o rtatio n costs aspects (for inputs) are f i r s t se t in f a i r l y general form for one firm. He f i r s t considers three inputs, ^11* ^12* an<^ ^13* s^ P P ec* f rom three points (1, 2, and 3), and shows th at p r o f i t maximiaation reduces to tran sp o rta tio n cost minimization. Thus, i f the rates are r^ and the d i s tances are d^, d2, and d^ (points 1, 2, and 3) to production s i t e , X Y , the tran sp o rt costs are: P P 12I b i d . , p. 390-393. 13 Walter Isard, Location and Space Economy (Cam bridge, Mass.: MIT Press’ ^ 1^56) , p a rtic u la rly Chapter 10. 14I b i d . , p. 222. 73 K = l r i d i ti i i • Thus, a XpYp should be determined such th a t K is a minimum, i . e . , dK = 0. Applying th is condition leads to a s e t of th ree conditions of the form: r . H f/i A - ~ 1 , 2 , 3 . Thus, the marginal ra te s of s u b s t i t u t i o n between various tra n s p o rt rate s is in v erse ly p ro p o rtio n a l to the q u an tity - d istan ce (ton-m iles) of tra n s p o rt required. Isard then proceeds to derive second-order co n d i tio n s to assure a minimum. The same a n a ly s is , with the same r e s u l t s , is then extended to the shipment of many fa c to rs to the production s i t e . Again, the "marginal ra te of s u b s t i t u t i o n between any two tra n s p o rt in p u ts , to ta l costs on a l l other tra n s p o rt i n puts being held co n stan t, must equal the re c ip ro c a l of the r a t i o of t h e i r p r i c e s . " ^ Isa rd then assumes tra n s p o rt ra te s p ro p o rtio n a l to d istan ce and a continuous, is o tro p ic tr a n s p o r ta tio n system. Under th is assu m p tio n ^ (which holds fo r the remainder of his treatm ent of lo c atio n th e o ry ), he t r e a t s term in al c o s ts . 15I b i d . , p. 227. 16I b i d . , p. 228. 74 The r e s u lt is again sim ilar to those previously obtained, mathematically: ri * dir'i rj + V j ' dCqjidi) ■ Isard next extends the analysis to cover market areas and further to allow both the market and supply areas 17 to be trea ted as variables. As a preface to this analysis Isard sta te s : To the extent that there are many, and p a rtic u la rly i f there is an in fin ite number in an area of approxi mately continuous density, the above location analysis may be said in a sense to embrace market area theory. But in a major respect such a statement would be invalid. Market area analysis has as i t s essen tial core the problem of demarcating boundaries and con sumers to be served.18 The analysis begins with a statement of the i n d i f ference condition which must exist at a market boundary: i = F r*d* + I b-r-d. = T i=A 1 1 1 with the following definitions: r* = transport rate per unit of product d* = radius of the circ le defining market boundary i = A through F corresponds to the number of raw m aterials b^ = a constant, number of units of raw material per unit of output. 17I b i d . , p. 231 1 8 T v, • J, Ibid. 75 = tran sp o rt rate on raw m aterial d^ = distances to factor locations T = difference between the maximum price consumers would pay (po) and the unit cost of production ( it) . Thus , T = pQ - T T . Next, an expression for the consumer or social s u r plus is w ritten: Tqi - K = Tqi - T - I t d dptd) p(d) = e s s e n tia lly a demand density function. Thus, the t o t a l number of items sold in the c irc le located at XnYD of radius d* is given by qj - /d pCd)r P K = fa c to r tran sp o rt cost. To sim plify the an a ly sis, an average unit cost of transporting the product from XpY^ to a l l consumers is defined as rcT. Then, the above equation becomes: i = F T„ - K = T I qT- r4d. - qTr<I qi qi 1 1 HI which must be maximized, i . e . : d(T - K) = 0. ^1 Results sim ilar to those obtained previously appear: li = . d (q ijV ' Tq " E r kqIkdk " = constant q I Again, the ’’marginal rate of s u b s titu tio n between any two tran sp o rt inputs is equal to the reciprocal of the r a tio of 76 19 t h e i r tra n s p o rt r a t e s . " Isard then extends the analysis , 2 0 to many producers. In the preceding a n a ly sis, fa c to rie s were assumed to o rig in a te at p o in ts . Isard relaxes th is requirement and allows supply areas to e x i s t. A sim ila r r e s u lt is obtained r e l a t i n g marginal ra te s of s u b s t itu ti o n and recip ro c al p r i c e s . Isard also extends his analysis to include Losch's market area analysis and a g r ic u ltu r a l location theory. The Ricardian case of d i f f e r e n t i a l land y ield s is then also covered.2^ This e s s e n t i a l l y completes I s a r d 's very nearly d e f in it iv e analysis of location theory, at le a s t as i t depends on tr a n s p o rta tio n co sts, fa c to r supply, and product demand. Reference to Table 1 w ill in d icate th at almost a l l p o ssib le c l a s s i c a l location problems have been handled by I s a r d 's treatment of lo catio n theory. Contemporary Location Theory - Others An i n te r e s ti n g trend which has developed in recent lo c atio n theory is to attempt to d etect order ra th e r than s p e c i f i c a l l y locate an a c t i v i t y . In a s e rie s of a r t i c l e s , 19I b i d . , p. 233. 20I b i d . , p. 235. 21I b i d . , p. 244. TABLE 1. FORM S OF THE INDUSTRIAL LOCATION PROBLEM >er of lucers Space Number of Competitors Number of Markets Market Form Number of Factors Factor Form 1 Linear 0 1 Distributed 0 - 1 Linear 0 1 Discrete 0 - 1 Linear 0 Several Discrete 0 0 2 Linear 1 1 Distributed* 0 0 1 Linear 0 1 Discrete 1 Discrete 1 Plane 0 1 D istributed 0 - 2 Plane 1 1 D istributed 0 - N Plane N-l 1 D istributed 0 - 1 Plane 0 m Discrete f Discrete P Plane p-1 m Discrete f Discrete P Plane p-1 1 D istributed f Discrete P Plane p -1 m Discrete 1 D istributed P Plane P' 1 1 D istributed 1 D istributed * In almost a ll of the work th a t has been done with d istrib u te d markets, the markets are assumed to be d istrib u te d homogeneously. 78 22 2 3 Dacey * in v e stig a te s the p r o b a b ili ty of various point p a tte rn s asso ciated with a c t i v i t i e s occurring through com p le te ly random processes. In s im ila r analyses, Dacey tr e a ts the p ro b a b ility of the e x is tin g hexagonal p a tte rn s having been generated randomly. While in t e r e s t i n g , these in v e s tig a tio n s have been supplanted by a more general approach, developed by Yu V. Medvedkov, which is an e x c e lle n t t e s t for order in any spa t i a l l y d i s t r ib u t e d d is c re te a c t i v i t i e s . ^ Medvedkov mea sures disorder by entropy (H), where entropy is defined by: n H = .1 Pi i°g2 Pi i = l where: pi ■ mi i ">i and m^ is the number of occurrences of settlem ent density d^ which occur in the ith element of a rectan g u la r g rid super imposed over a map of settlem en ts (the squares have sides g reater than the average distance between c i t i e s ) . 22 Michael F. Dacey and T. Tung, "The Id e n tif ic a tio n of Randomness in Point P a t t e r n s ," Journal of Regional S c i ence , Vol. 4, No. 1, 1962, p. 96-101. 2 3 Michael F. Dacey, "A Note on Some Number Proper t i e s of a Hexagonal H ierarch ical Plane L a t t i c e ," Journal of Regional S cience, Vol. 5, No. 2, 1964, p. 63-67. 24 Yu V. Medvedkov, "The Concept of Entropy m S ettle ment P a tte rn Analyses," Regional Science Papers, Vol. XVIII, 1967, p. 165. 79 As examples, he computes the entropy of several con figurations, thus, for: 1. A uniform two-dimensional d istrib u tio n of points. H = 0 2. Poisson Distribution: it _ v - a , a^i -a i ^i7 2 ^L7 where: a = mean number of points per square. Medvedkov then u tiliz e s the approach to separate random and ordered settlements in four areas. The results are summarized below. No. Regular No. Random Area Settlements Settlements Northern France (Rural) 99 23 Central Italy 115 78. Southwestern Wisconsin 53 46 Southern Czechoslovakia 95 1 The author then comments th a t, on the level areas, 25 the uniform component appears to prevail. Location Theory and City Design What is the role of location theory in city design? In its modern form, i t could possibly be put to use i f the 25I b i d . , p. 168. 80 area under consideration is e s se n tia lly featureless and i f transport costs are e s s e n tia lly homogeneous in a l l d ir e c tions. (Conditions seldom are realized in a c tu a lity , how ever.) Further objections could, of course, be made on the grounds th at the "economic man" doesn't exist--much of i n dustry is located on grounds other than the pure economic. Another, perhaps more serious, objection to location theory is th a t time is ignored. P ro fits are maximized now. Argu ments of immediacy and the process of discounting the future are v a lid --in a limited way. The real problem is how can a tim e-lim ited e n tity at t = t Q ("now" is taken as tg) assess the worth of a resource, a store of value to an en tity with a d iffe re n t set of time lim its. Life w ill be as important to my son and his son as i t was to my father and his father. To make any use of location theory, i t must be com bined with tran sp o rtatio n theory (see Chapter V) to provide some of the cost-benefit en trie s for the trad e-o ff that defines absolute location, re la tiv e location and c e n t r a l i zation vs. decentralization. A note is necessary regarding the relationship of location theory and tran sp o rtatio n theory. Classical lo c a tion theory contains, as a subset, a very sim plified version of tran sp o rtatio n cost theory. Transportation speeds, q u ality , investment in, e t c ., were conveniently simplified or dropped altogether. I t is no more possible to do th is ; 81 location theory should include transportation theory. It must also include other facto rs, e .g ., ecological factors, synergistic effects, etc. Welfare Economics Welfare economics is the division branch of econo mics which attempts to determine the social impaces of the economic factors or changes therein. Formally, the field was defined by E. J. Mishan as "That branch of economics which concerns i t s e l f with the principles by i^hich alternate economic arrangements may be ranked in terms of social wel- 2 6 fare." Thus, welfare economics attempts to evaluate the social d e s ira b ility of various patterns of resource a llo c a tio n . Classical Welfare Economics Although formal welfare economics is a fa irly recent development, there were some precursors to this form of economic thought. Preeminent among them are Jeremy Bentham 2 7 and his " f i l i c i f i c calculus." Basically, Bentham set forth the following scheme: Pleasure corresponds to "good" Pain corresponds to "bad", ? A L. J. Mishan, "A Survey of Welfare Economics," The Economic Journal, Vol. LXX, No. 278, June 1960, p. 221. 2 7 Jeremy Bentham, An Introduction to the Principles of Morals and Legislation (London, 1823; New York, 1948J . 82 and the quantity (q) of each depends on: Pleasure = qp^ = f (in te n s ity , direc tio n , certainty) Pain = qp^ = f (in te n s ity , d irec tio n , certainty) Bentham sought to maximize the excess of to ta l social pleasure over the amount of to ta l social pain or d isp leasu re. If 1qpL denotes the pleasure experienced by in d iv id ual i and 1qp^ represents the pain experienced by individual i , Bentham sought to maximize: . qPL ' . qPA • 1 1 This tra d itio n of thought was expanded upon and developed by the school of economic thought known as u t i l i tarianism. Members of this school (in an ex post facto way) include J. S. M ill, D. Hume, C. A. H elvetius, and, to some extent, Thomas R. Malthus. Another ’’w e lfa re -lik e ” concept introduced at a f a ir ly early date is that of Dupuit's idea of consumer su rp lu s. Generally, Marshall followed in the u t i l i t a r i a n con- 29 cept of welfare economics propounded by John Stuart Mill. 2 8 Jules Dupuit, t r a n s . by R. H. Barback, On the Mea surement of U tility of Public Works, International Economic Papers, Vol. 2, p. 83. 2 9 Stephen T. Worland, Scholasticism and Welfare Economics (Notre Dame-London: University of Notre tame P re ss, 1967) , p. 65. 83 Thus, he accepted some form of the g re a te s t happiness for the g re a te s t number c r i t e r i a . M arshall’s p rin cip a l welfare method or tool was a refined version of Dupuit's consumers' surplus. The topic is of enough import to merit a separate discussion (see the section on consumers' su rplus). Pigou emphasized th a t economic phenomena can be mea sured in monetary terms. In fa c t, in his consideration of welfare economics, he r e s t r i c t s himself to elements th a t can be measured in monetary terms. He introduced the idea of "national dividend." His dividend is defined as the aggre gate of goods and services produced over some time period. Pigou introduced the concept of marginal net product 30 of each industry. He was then able to show th at the "national dividend" was a maximum when a l l of the marginal net products were equal. When th is condition is not met, there w ill be some re a llo c a tio n of resources th a t increases aggregate w elfare. Modern Welfare Economics There are b a s ic a lly two modern schools of w elfare economics, the "New Welfare Economics," associated with Barone, Pareto, Kaldor and Hicks, and the second school, usually associated with Bergson and Samuelson, who have 30I b i d . , p. 69. 84 developed the idea of s o c ia l w elfare fu n ctio n s. New Welfare Economics P a r e to 's optimal c r i t e r i o n marked the in cep tio n of the new w elfare economics, Pareto made a formal statem ent of the c r i t e r i o n as quoted by P ro fesso r Mishan: " . . . a p o s i tio n from which i t is not p o s s i b le , by a r e a llo c a tio n of f a c t o r s , to make anyone b e t t e r o f f without making at l e a s t 31 one person worse o f f . " The next innovation was the id e a of compensation. While u su ally asso cia ted with the names of Kaldor and Hicks, the notion o f compensation was f i r s t introduced into w elfare 32 economics by Barone. He f i r s t put forward the idea t h a t , i f a change b e n e fits some and harms others and i f the bene fa c to rs can pay o ff those harmed so th a t the change is accepted, the gainers are b e t t e r o f f and the lo se rs are at the same lev el of w elfare. Note th a t, i f the compensating payments were a c t u a l ly made, both of the above c r i t e r i a re tu rn to P a re to 's c r i t e r i a , i . e . , any change which harms no one and b e n e fits 33 a t l e a s t one person. 31 Mishan, "A Survey of Welfare Economics." 32 Mark Blaug, Economic Theory in Retrospect (Home ward, 111.: Richard D ~ Irw in, In c ., 1962 8 1968), p. 592 . 33I b i d . 85 Generally following Pareto and Barone, the new wel fare economics separated optimal welfare conditions into the c la s s e s : 1. Efficiency. 2. E quity.3^ I t should be noted th at most economic policy changes w ill affect both efficien cy and equity. The new welfare group then proceeded to show that economic decisions could be made on the basis of efficiency only. The new welfare economists produced two arguments to support th e ir views. They are: 1. I f a l l a lte ra tio n s were improvements in e f f i ciency, although i t cannot be proven everyone w ill be b e t te r off, i t is highly probable th a t, in the long run, they w ill 35 be b e tte r off (to paraphrase Hicks ). This argument was c r itic iz e d and, according to Professor Scitovsky, disposed of by Mr. I. M. D. L i t t l e . 36 2. As put forward by Kaldor, a l l changes can be compensated for i f they involve increases in efficien cy . 3^Tibor Scitovsky, Papers on Welfare and Growth [Stanford, Cal.: Stanford University Press, 1964), p . T79. 350. R. Hicks, "The R ehabilitation of Consumers Sur p lu s," Review of Economic Studies, Vol. 8, No. 2, February 1941, p. 111. Scitovsky, Papers on Welfare and Growth, p. 181. 86 Therefore, economists should always recommend an e f f i c i e n t change while leaving i t to others ( p o liti c ia n s ) to see th a t the lo se rs obtain compensation. These ideas were combined in the so -c a lled Hicks- Kaldor c r i t e r i o n . K aldor’s c r i t e r i o n i s : S tate A is p r e ferable to S tate B i f those who gain from a t r a n s i tio n to A 37 can compensate the lo s e rs . Another c r i t e r i o n was propounded by Hicks: State A is p re fe ra b le to S tate B i f the lo se rs could not bribe the 3 8 gainers into not changing to A. This e f f e c t iv e ly says the gainers gain more than the lo sers lo se . While Kaldor’s argument might be v alid in a s o c i a l i s t economy, i t is d i f f i c u l t to see how i t would function in a Western democracy. A d i f f i c u l t y with th is c r i t e r i o n arose sh o rtly a f t e r 39 i t s p u b lic a tio n . This was the Scitovsky paradox. B asi c a lly , Scitovsky proved t h a t , in some cases where there were two a l t e r n a t e s , I and I I , use of the Kaldor-Hicks c r i t e r i o n could r e s u l t in the following s it u a t i o n : 3 7 N. Kaldor, "Welfare Propositions in Economics and In terp erso n al Comparisons of U t i l i t y , " Economic Journal, Vol. LXIX, September 1939, p. 549-552. 3 8 J. R. Hicks, "The Foundations of Welfare Economics," Economic Journal, Vol. LXIX, December 1939, p. 696-712. 39 Mishan, "A Survey of Welfare Economics," p. 221. 87 I f the Kaldor-Hicks c rite rio n shows I to be more e f f ic ie n t than I I , and i f I is adopted, then the Kaldor- Hicks c r ite rio n could be used to prove II is more e f f ic ie n t than I . To r e c tify this s itu a tio n , T. Scitovsky introduced his "double c r i t e r i a . " To quote d irec tly : State A is preferable to State B i f the gainers can bribe the losers into making the tra n s itio n and the losers cannot bribe the gainers into not making the change. ^ The Social Welfare Function Approach The use of a social welfare function was pioneered by Professor Bergson in 1938.^ B asically, the function can be defined in two ways: 1. W(global) = f(x^). x^ = l . . . k , where x^ rep re sents a l l of the goods and services consumed. 2. W(global) = f (x._). x^ = l . . . k , where x^ repre sents a l l of the goods and services consumed. Generally, the proponents of this approach maintain that economists should attempt to elucidate the conditions 40 T. Scitovsky, "A Note on Welfare Properties in Economics," Review of Economic Studies, 1941-1942, Vol. IX, p. 77-78. 41 A. Bergson, "A Reformulation of Certain Aspects of Welfare Economics," Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. LII, No. 4 (February 1938J, p. 310-334. This a r t i c l e is a t t r i b uted in several places to A. Bergson but the actual a r tic le is signed Abram Burk. 88 th at maximizes this function. The social welfare function approach has two serious drawbacks: 1. There is no way to determine the nature or even the general shape of the welfare function. A 1 2. Professor Arrow's objection. If i t is neces sary to make a choice between more than two a lte r n a te s , i t is not possible to construct a so cial welfare function. Although Professor Arrow's objection does not invali date the social welfare function approach, i t defines the lim its of the approach. Consumer's Surplus Consumer's surplus was o rig in a lly developed and u t i l i z e d by Jules Dupuit, a French engineer. He u t i l i z e d consumer's surplus in order to evaluate the so c ial b en efits which would re su lt from the construction of social or c o l le c tiv e goods. Dupuit presented consumer's surplus based on price 43 reduction. The diagram used appears in Figure 9. (The usual order of p rice -q u a n tity axes have been reversed from Dupuit's figure.) A O Kenneth Arrow, "A D iffic u lty in the Concept of Social Welfare," Journal of P o l i t i c a l Economy, Vol. LVIII, No, 4, August 1956 , p . 3T8 - 34(T. ^ D u p u it, U tili ty of Public Works, p. 83-110. 89 P P V P r ' N 0 r Figure 9. D upuit’s Consumer's Surplus 90 Dupuit then notes th at n a rtic le s are consumed at price p, and th a t the rectangle o-r-n-p represents the cost of production (or the to ta l u t i l i t y ) ^ of the n a r tic le s . He then notes pnP is the consumer’s surplus. A reduction in p ric e , p to p ' , re s u lts in a net gain in consumer’s surplus of qnn'. The idea was refined by Alfred Marshall, and the con- 45 cept of producer's surplus was introduced. The producer's surplus on Figure 9 is the cu rv ilin ear tria n g le , p 'n 'S . I t is realized th at the concept depends on the assumption th at u t i l i t y can be both measured and aggregated and that individuals have sim ilar u t i l i t y functions. In a more sophisticated form, consumer's (and p ro ducer's) surplus may be used as a tool to aid in making a decision on a large p ro je c t. This was carried out in the case of f e r t i l i z e r projects in India by Professor Tintner 46 and Mr. Patel. The approach assumed sim ilar and aggre gated u t i l i t y functions, for individual i: ui = M xi l ’ xi 2 > xik xin } ’ ^ Ibid. , p. 106. ^ A lf r e d Marshall, Principles of Economics, Appendix H (St. M artin's, London: MacMillan and Company, Ltd., 1927), p. 811. 46 Gerhard Tintner and Malvika P atel, "Evaluation of Indian F e r t i l i z e r Projects: An Application of Consumer's and Producer's Surplus," Journal of Farm Economics, Vol. 4, No. 3, Part 2, p. 704. 91 where the re fe rs to the amount of commodity k av a ila b le to individual i . The budget c o n s tra in t is on i , M i = ^ Pkxik ■ Maximum u t i l i t y then occurs when: 3ui 9xT^ " xi Pk 1 = • -n » where A^ is the Lagrangian m u lt ip lie r Cor the marginal u t i l i t y of money) and P^ is the p ric e of the kth commodity. The system of re la tio n s h ip s can be solved for individual demand f u t c t i o n s , xik " f ik (Pi ■•. Pn ,Mi ) and aggre ated to a t o t a l demand function for commodity k, xk = I xik Professor T intner and M. Patel then r e la te p rice to q u an tity by: p = f (q ,s ) . This is the demand function; i t is assumed to have a nega tiv e slope, where s is defined as a " s h i f t param eter. ”47 Supply is defined as p = g ( q ,s ). The slope is zero or p o s itiv e . If g(q,s) is se t to zero and solved fo r the q u a n tity , we have q1 = q^Cs), (where the supply curve crosses to q u an tity a x i s ) . At equilibrium , g (q ,s) - f ( q ,s ) which defines an equilibrium , q = q^Cs). 47I b i d . , p. 705. 92 The sum o f the consumer's and p ro d u c e r's surpluses is given by: R(s) = / f (q ,s ) d q + / {f(q,s) - g (q ,s)} d . 0 q a q Now, introducing a la rg e p r o je c t can change supply (g) and demand (f) curves; presumably, the supply curve would be s h if te d downward and demand upward. I f the forms of the supply and demand functions are known at s = 0 , and t h e i r dependence on s is known, then the value of s th a t maximizes R(s) could be d i r e c t l y determined, i . e . , R '(s) = 0 and solve fo r s. The three c r i t e r i a used fo r the f in a l d ecisio n are 48 quoted from an a r t i c l e by D. Winch. Ignoring the problem of r e d i s t r i b u t i o n , the c r i t e r i a reduce to proceeding with the p r o je c t i f the consumer's gains measured by changes in areas under the re le v a n t curves exceed the sum of losses s i m i l a r l y measured. Consumer's surplus is an e x c e lle n t to o l where: 1. Some estim ates of supply and demand curves are a v a i l a b l e . 2. Information e x i s ts on the p r o j e c t 's probable e f f e c t s on the supply and demand fu n ctio n s. This inform a t i o n does not e x i s t fo r c i t i e s as a whole. F u rth e r, in 48 David M. Winch, "Consumer's Surplus and the Com p en satio n P r i n c i p l e , " American Economic Review, No. 55, June 1965, p. 395-423. 93 stru ctu rin g an en tity as complex as a to ta lly new city , there is no real s ta rtin g point for a consumer's surplus analys i s . Summary 49 Professor Mishan concludes on a rather low note. He feels that there are serious d i f f i c u l t i e s in welfare economics which are not lik e ly to be surmounted. Some of these issues are: 1. Choice between variety and price. 2. Proper division between public and private s e c to r s . 3. Problems with index numbers. Welfare Economics and City Design There are several p ra c tic a l d i f f i c u lt ie s in attempt ing to apply welfare economics to the problem at hand. They a r e : 1. All of the c r i t e r i a apply to changes from an existing sta te to another. It would be th e o re tic a lly pos sible to conceive of every possible configuration of the city being designed as a separate state and attempt to apply one or more of the c r i t e r i a to each sta te re la tiv e to every other s ta te . Aside from being extremely clumsy, such a p ro cedure appears to be "open ended" and presents l i t t l e hope 49 Mishan, "A Survey of Welfare Economics." 94 of rapid convergence (or any convergence at a l l , for th at m a tte r ) . 2. All of the d e fin itio n s leave gain undefined. 3. While, in theory, the c r i t e r i a are sensible in a p r a c tic a l fashion, they provide l i t t l e meaningful p r e s c rip tio n for action. For example, consider the Kaldor condition; S tate A is p referab le to S tate B i f the gainers can compensate the lo se rs . Will the gainers a c tu a lly compensate the losers? If they had the p o l i t i c a l power to e f f e c t the change from A to B, there is l i t t l e reason to suppose they have any thought of losing p a r t of t h e i r gain by compensating anyone. F inally, there seems to be a fundamental weakness to a l l of welfare economics. The p a st is ign o red . In the p a s t, Alexander, Caesar, A t t i l a the Hun, Genghis Khan and, more rec e n tly , Napoleon, H itle r , and f i n a l l y the Russian commis s a rs , have seized v ast s tre tc h e s of the e a rth , i t s people and i t s w ealth--w ith o u t, i t should be noted, the b e n e fit of any knowledge of welfare economics. By a s im ila r process, with corruption la rg e ly replacing v io le n ce, much of the wealth of the United States has been appropriated by a very small number of in d iv id u a ls , presumably le g a ll y , to "have and to hold" in p e rp e tu ity . The sta te s described above are the " c r i t i c a l condi tio n s " of welfare economics today. As fa r as rig h tin g th is 95 situ atio n , welfare economics prescribes nothing definite and would take forever. Its p ractica l relevance, as anything other than an apology for the existing state of ownership, is in serious doubt. Insofar as the c r i t e r i a of welfare economics are d if fic u lt to apply, p a rtia lly undefined in an operational sense, and of limited ap p licab ility to the world as i t e x ists, i t is f e lt th at, as a p rac tica l m atter, the methods and procedures of welfare economics can be ignored in the case at hand. Social Costs Social costs are those costs associated with an activ ity which are not borne by the ac tiv ity . Thus, a paper or steel mill produces thousands of tons of polluted water a day and usually pays nothing for the privilege. As far as is possible, a ll social costs must be con sidered in the design of a project as complicated as a city. This must be done on an a c tiv ity -b y -ac tiv ity basis, and a provision must be made to see that a ll of the social costs are met. The example usually given is smoke from a factory which does damage to surrounding property.5^ Professor 50 Ronald Coase, "The Distinction Between Private and Social Benefits and Costs," Readings in Microeconomic Theory (New York: Holt, Rinehart and Winston, IncT, 1968), Chapter 30, p. 423. 96 Coase emphasizes the dual nature of the problem; he points out th a t, i f A i n f l i c t s harm on B and is then re stra in e d , 51 then harm is actu ally i n f l i c t e d on A. The usual f a ilu r e to include the back e f f e c t , Professor Coase f e e ls , is a fundamental weakness in the an aly sis. The best d e fin itio n of so c ia l cost or e x te r n a litie s is found in an a r t i c l e by Professors Buchanan and Stubble- 5 2 bine. The authors define an e x te rn a lity as being present when the u t i l i t y function of person A is dependent upon: 1. His a c t i v i t i e s and choices, X, . . . X , and 1 n 2. On another action or choice, Y. A Thus, u = f(X^ . . . Xn , Y). Y represents the e x te rn a lity . System Analysis This section w ill describe another tool which is very useful in the analysis or design of any complex device or e n tity . F i r s t , there is a note on the h i s t o r i c a l develop ment of systems an aly sis, then the d isc ip lin e is defined and f in a lly , some of the tools of systems analysis are noted and defined. Development of Systems Analysis Systems an a ly sis , per se, began i t s development 51I b i d . , p. 424. 52 J. M. Buchanan and W . C. Stubblebine, "E x te rn a li t i e s , " Economica, November 1962, p. 373. 97 about 45 to 50 years ago in the United S ta te s , p rim a rily in 53 connection with the telephone system. Up to then, the telephone system, w ith i t s combina tio n of in d iv id u a l instrum ents, o f f i c e s , and s u b o ffic e s , switching equipment and i t s transm ission systems, e l e c t r i c a l systems, e t c . , was probably the most complicated system with which man had ever consciously d e a lt. Ordinary e l e c t r i c a l engineering methods proved to be inadequate. This s i t u a t i o n forced the development of a s e t of methods and to o ls which l a t e r became known as systems a n a ly s is . The next impetus to the development of systems analysis was World War I I . Again, guiding featu res were the need to design and develop some r e a l ly complex systems, e . g . , radar and sonar devices, f i r e c o n tro l systems, g u id ance and n av ig atio n systems, e tc . A fter World War I I , development continued in the defense in d u stry . In the la te 1950's and e a rly 1960's, the f i e l d began to be d o d ified and defined. D efin itio n Systems an aly sis g en erally is a s e t of methods, to o ls , and procedures by means of which one can analyze and synthesize a proposed system and i t s environment in lig h t of some s e t goals. ^Arthur D. H all, A Methodology for Systems Engi neers. (Princeton, N .J.: D. Van Nostrand Col, I n c ., 1962). 98 Generally, i t can be said to be derived from, or at l e a s t , to be in accord with, the s c i e n t i f i c method. Although d i f f i c u l t to define, there are several steps which generally are implemented in any systems an alysis. They are: 1. The objectives are c le a rly sta te d . I f at a ll p o ssib le , they are put into q u a n tita tiv e form. 2. The p ossible a lte rn a te systems are specified. 3. I f a t a l l p o ssib le, a mathematical model of the system and i t s environment w ill be constructed. 4. Study and exercise of the system-environmental models is next necessary. In some cases, i t is possible to e s ta b lis h an optimal policy or determine a best solution. 5. The best or optimal system or system configura tion is selected . Note th a t th is requires a c r i t e r i o n . 6 . I t is usually necessary to do a ce rta in amount of verifying and te s tin g . 7. The f in a l v e r if ie d system is defined, described, and documented. The above seven steps are not rig id . Most systems analysts would c e rta in ly a l t e r the wording of one or two steps and add or su b tra c t a step or two. Further, a s p e c i f i c problem may make one or more of the steps t r i v i a l or unnecessary, or c a ll for an additional procedure. In a sense, systems analysis is an a r t , and an a r t requiring a high degree of c r e a tiv it y and o r ig in a l ity . In 99 many cases, an analyst w ill have to invent a method or p r o cedure t a ilo r e d to one and only one problem. For these reasons, systems analysis is somewhat d i f f i c u l t to define. I t should be noted th a t systems analysis has a p p l i cations other than the d ire c t design of systems. For example, i t can be used to: 1. A ssist in the management of operations. 2. Select t a c t i c a l a l te r n a ti v e s . 3. Design and develop weapons systems. 4. Choose p o licy a l t e r n a t i v e s . 54 Tools of Systems Analysis Systems analysis uses a wide and varied mix of tools and, as previously noted, w ill occasionally require i t s p r a c t i t i o n e r s to invent a new procedure or method to f i t a p a r t i c u l a r s it u a t i o n . Some of the most frequently used tools and methods are b r i e f l y l i s t e d . 1. Flow charting. The sequence of events or occur rences is charted, time usually running above the X-axis. A simple example appears in Figure 10. (Note th a t, i f times are attached to the events, a flow chart is a PERT or C r i t i cal Path Method c h a rt.) 54E. S. Quade and W . I. Boucher, e d ., Systems Analysis and Policy Planning (New York: American E lsevier Publishing Co., In c., 1968) , p . 7 . Supply as a Balancing of Demarid as a function of time -4 Supplv and 4- function of time (per area) Demand (per area) I Density of Excess Supply/Demand area population to excess supply/ demand - 4 Transportation I Overall city-wide ordering (most co stly downward) By p a r tic u la r Service 1. Overall ranking 2. Area rankinc By a re a l u n it (most costly downward) Figure 10. A Typical Flow Chart 101 2. System block diagram. A p i c t o r i a l method of i l l u s t r a t i n g relatio n sh ip s between meaningful subelements of a system. Figure 2 i l l u s t r a t e s a typical system block diagram. 3. Modeling. Producing mathematical models of the system and i t s environment. 4. Simulation. Jo in t exercise of the models, usually through time. 5. Single thread analysis. One or more paths w ill be followed through the e n tire system. Thus, i t might be of value in a complicated telephone exchange to trace a single c a ll from s t a r t to d estin atio n . 6 . Probability theory. Much of the time, uncer ta in ty and risk pervade the environment. P ro b ab ility theory provides a means of dealing with the problem. 7. Linear programming, quadratic programming, non lin e a r programming. These are mathematical procedures whereby a form (lin e a r, q uadratic, e tc .) is maximized or minimized subject to c o n stra in ts (usually lin e a r ). 8. Control theory. Deals with the s ta tu s and dyna mics of systems which have feedback. 9. Information theory, communication theory. Deals with channel capacity, sig n a l-to -n o ise r a t i o , f i l t e r i n g , etc. 10. Cost modeling. Cost estimates must usually be associated with a lte rn a te systems. 102 As p rev io u sly mentioned, the l i s t is not intended to be e x h a u s tiv e --o th e r s u b je c ts could be added or some of the above d elete d . C ost-B enefit Analysis This se c tio n w ill discuss the c o s t- b e n e f it approach to s e le c tio n o f a l t e r n a t e systems. The approach, b a s ic a lly , is in d ic a te d by i t s name: i t compares the costs and bene f i t s of any p a r t i c u l a r a c t. The f i r s t s e c tio n discusses the o rig in of c o s t- b e n e f it a n a ly s is . The next s e c tio n defines and describes the p r in c ip a l elements of c o s t- b e n e f it a n a l y s i s . O rigins of C ost-B enefit Analysis The o rig in s of c o s t- b e n e f it analysis can be traced 55 to Jules D upuit's famous paper on p u b lic works, wherein he developed the concept of using the consumer's su rp lu s. P re s t and Turvey trac e the modern c o s t- b e n e f it a n a l y sis to the response of the U.S. Corps of Engineers to the River and Harbor Act of 1902, which req u ired statem ent of costs and b e n e fits in r iv e r and harbor p r o j e c t s . ^ The c o s t- b e n e f it approach was widened to include some so c ia l costs during the New Deal and World War I I ; some ^^Dupuit, " U t i l i t y of Public Works," p. 83. r z i A. P re st and R. Turvey, "C ost-B enefit Analysis: A Survey," The Economic J o u r n a l , Vol. LXXV, December 1965, p . 683. 103 of i t s methods were deepened an a ly tica lly . By the end of World War I I, the approach had been broadened to include: 1. Secondary or in d ire c t costs and b en efits. 2. In tan g ib les. 57 The use of the cost-benefit or cost-effectiveness approach in the United States defense applications has led to several developments; the more important of them are: 1. An increased use of mathematical notation, con vention and methods. This eventually led to at least more generalization of the methods. 2. More e x p lic it use of pro b ab ility theory. 3. Use of a variety of tools and methods in asses sing costs and b e n e fits. These include modeling, various types of programming (lin ear, dynamic, nonlinear, quadratic), simulation, etc. 4. Development and use of several special methods have been, in p a rt, stimulated by the defense use of cost- benefit analysis. For example, the inventory problem, queu ing problems, replacement problems, etc. In summary, i t can be safely said that the use of the cost-benefit approach in the area of defense has resulted in the broadening and deepening of cost-benefit analysis, more e x p lic it use of mathematical notation (and i t s concomi ta n t precision) and the incorporation (or an extensive use) 57I b i d . , p. 684. 104 of a number of tools developed in other areas (systems a n a ly sis , operations research, e t c . ) . D efinition and Description P rest and Turvey define c o s t-b e n e fit analysis in the following fashion: Cost-benefit analysis is a p r a c t ic a l way of a s s e s s ing the d e s i r a b i l i t y of p r o je c ts , where i t is important to take a long view (in the sense of looking at r e p e r cussions in the fu rth e r, as well as the n e a re r, future) and a wide view (in the sense of allowing for side- e ffe c ts of many kinds on many persons, in d u s t r ie s , regions, e t c . ) , i . e . , i t implies the enumeration and evaluation of a ll the relev an t costs and b e n e f i t s . 58 Prest and Turvey also note th at c o s t-b e n e fit analy sis involves a v a rie ty of d isc ip lin e s w ithin the f i e l d of economics. S p e c ific a lly noted are welfare economics, p u b lic finance, and resource economics. Prest and Turvey l i s t four questions whose answers c o n s titu te p rin c ip le s of c o s t-b e n e fit an a ly sis; they are: 1. Which costs and which b e n e fits are to be included? 2. How are they to be valued? 3. At what i n t e r e s t ra te are they to be discounted? 4. What are the relev an t c o n stra in ts? According to Roland N. McKean, the common elements in c o s t-b e n e fit analysis are: 58I b i d . , p . 683. 105 1. Objectives, or beneficial things, to be achieved. 2. Alternates or possible systems of achieving obj e c tiv e s. 3. Costs or benefits gained or foregone i f one alternate is adopted. 4. Models. 5. A crite rio n involving both cost and benefits to 5 9 identify preferred course of action. Finally, i t should be emphasized that the cost- benefit approach does not preclude or dispense with the need for judgment. For the purposes of this d iss erta tio n , a combination of the two definitions will be used. The Prest and Turvey l i s t certainly should be expanded to include goals or objec tives and the c r ite r i a . The introduction of models (No. 4) on McKean’s l i s t is probably not really necessary; models are only introduced to a s s is t in identifying and evaluating costs and benefits. Thus, the definition adopted here w ill be as follows: 1. Objectives and goals. Roland N. McKean, Public Spending (New York: McGraw-Hill Book Co., 1968) t ~rT. 136. ^Charles J. Hitch and Roland N. McKean, The Econo - mics of Defense in a Nuclear Age (Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1965), p. 120. 106 2. Id e n tific a tio n and inclusion or exclusion of costs and b en efits. 3. Valuation of costs and b e n e fits. 4. The problem of time. 5. Constraints. 6 . C rite ria s e le c tio n . Each of these categories w ill be discussed b r ie f ly . 1. Objectives and Goals. I t is necessary to be very clear as to what is to be accomplished and what is to be compared. If at a l l p o ssib le , the goals or objectives should be sta te d q u a n tita tiv e ly . Thus, the goal of a p a r t i cular municipal water system might be to supply 1 , 000,000 gallons of water per day with: Total dissolved so lid s less than 1 p a rt in 10^. Biological oxygen demand less than 1 p a rt in 10^. Chlorinated hydrocarbons less than 1 p a rt per Mercury compounds less than 1 p a rt per 1010. 2. Id e n tific a tio n and Inclusion of Costs and Bene f i t s . Once the goals are fixed, a lte rn a te means to meet them can be devised. The d ire c t costs and b en e fits can usu a lly be assessed simply. They w ill c o n sist of construction and financing costs, operating c o s ts, maintenance costs, revenues, etc. The d ire c t b e n e fits can usually be evaluated by estimating the cost savings to users or by a consumer’s 107 surplus approach. E x te r n a litie s occur to persons, bodies or companies not d ir e c tly sponsoring the p r o j e c t . ^ These e ffe c ts should be taken in to account. Note th a t those secondary e ffe c ts should be included only i f they represent net increases in b en e fits and not simply tr a n s f e r s . 3. Valuation of Costs and B e n e f its . When the costs and b e n e fits are d ir e c tly expressable in money, p ric e expec ta tio n information should be included. The important thing is th at a l l p rice s of costs and b e n e fits must be computed on the same b a s i s - - t y p i c a l l y , the p rice le v els of the f i r s t year of the p ro je c t. Other problems xirhich must be considered in making the valuations are: a. Whether the a c t i v i t y or p ro je c t is large enough to a ffe c t the market in inputs or outputs. b. Problems due to market im p erfec tio n s. c. Tax e f f e c ts . d. Effects of co n tro ls. e . Unemployment. f . The problems associated with c o lle c tiv e goods. g- I n ta n g ib le s . 4. The Problem of Time. Time introduces a number of problems. The f i r s t of these is th at costs and b e n e fits do not a l l arriv e at the same time. This must be taken into 61 P rest and Turvey, Cost-Benefit Analysis, p. 688. 108 account. The c l a s s i c a l method is through discounting a t an i n t e r e s t r a t e , r. Thus, a b e n e f i t in year k is c u rre n tly worth (w): (1 + r ) * There are serious p h ilo so p h ica l d i f f i c u l t i e s in determining exactly what value of r to choose. This is p a r t i c u l a r l y tru e in the context of c ity design. A co n sid erab le amount of a t te n t io n w i l l be given to th is problem in Chapter V. Time is also introduced in problems concerning u n c e r t a i n t y : a. U ncertainty as to fu tu re p r ic e s . b. U ncertainty as to length of p r o j e c t . c. The discount rate is u n c e rta in . F in a lly , s e le c tin g a "planning h o riz o n ," or a time over which the p r o je c t w i l l be e x ta n t, p re se n ts some r a th e r d i f f i c u l t problems. Again, these w ill be discussed in more d e t a i l in Chapter V. 5. C o n s tr a in ts . There are se v eral types of con s t r a i n t s under which the an a ly sis must be accomplished. Some of these are: a. Physical c o n s tr a in ts . There are physical lim its to th in g s. A bridge can be b u i l t so long, a s p a c e c ra ft can not exceed the speed of l i g h t , e tc . 109 b. Legal c o n stra in ts. I t is assumed th a t a ll a lte rn a te s considered are w ithin the law. c. Administrative c o n s tra in ts . There are probably some upper lim its to the size or complexity of a p ro ject th at can be successfully manage. Apparently, some of our la rg er c i tie s are currently well beyond th is point at the present time. d. Budget co n stra in ts. e. D istrib u tio n al c o n s tra in ts . Although, in theory, any "losers" can be compensated for th e ir losses by the "winners," in p ra c tic e , this is ra re ly possible. This constraint should be considered at a p r a c tic a l level . 62 m any analysis. 6. C r ite rio n . It is necessary to have a c r ite rio n in order to make the fin a l evaluation of a lte rn a te systems. Hitch and McKean define c rite rio n : "By ' c r i t e r i o n 1 we mean the te s t by which we choose an a lte r n a tiv e or system over '7 another." McKean describes c r i t e r i o n as" "The c r ite rio n or t e s t of preferredness by means of which one points to 64 the best choice." The c r i t e r i a problem w ill be discussed in the con tex t of city design in Chapter V. 62I b i d . , p. 700-701. ^ H itc h and McKean, Economics of Defense. Roland N. McKean, Public Spending (New York: McGraw-Hill Book Company, 1968), p. 158. 110 Planning This sectio n w ill discuss t r a d i t i o n a l urban planning and note i t s re la tio n s h ip to the problem of c ity design. F i r s t , there is a b r i e f sketch of the development of p la n ning; next, a d e f in itio n of the f i e l d is se t fo rth ; then, some of the tools and methods of planning are reviewed; and, f i n a l l y , the re la tio n sh ip between planning and c i ty design w i l l be b r ie f ly noted. History of Planning Modern planning springs from two sources. The f i r s t was the Utopians, R. Owen, St. Simon, Godin and Fourier. The second group is generally nameless; i t includes the p r a c t ic a l s p e c i a l i s t s , o f f i c i a l s and adm inistrators who pushed for the b asic s a n ita ry , h e a lth , and sa fe ty re g u la tions which forme the legal basis of much of c ity planning. Robert Owen's co n trib u tio n is p a r t i c u l a r l y s i g n i f i cant in s o fa r as some of his utopian schemes were a c tu a lly brought to f r u i t i o n in the form of New Lanark (Scotland). New Lanark was founded sh o rtly aftersthe end of the Napole onic Wars. By the end of the war, England had acquired "a productive power, which operated to the same e f f e c t as i f her population had a c tu a lly increased f if t e e n or twenty f o l d . " 65 A fter the war, the defense industry was cut back 6 5 Leonard Benevolo, The Origins of Modern Town Planning (Cambridge, Mass.: MlT Press , 1967) , p . 42'. I l l and "the revenues of the world were inadequate to purchase that which a power so enormous in its effects did produce: a diminished demand f o l l o w e d . P a r e n t h e t i c a l l y , one should note, to quote Toynbee approximately: "Those who refuse to learn history are forced to repeat i t . " Robert Owen backed some experimentation at one of his small towns, renamed New Lanark, for three or four years. He then moved to America, at le a st on an ideological £ *7 basis, where he purchased a v illag e, New Harmony. The experiment lasted approximately three years before financial pressures forced it s liquidation. Out of the work of Robert Owen sprang a school of planning known as the Progressists. Othe contributors were Sir Benjamin Ward Richardson, Charles Fourier, and Etienne 6 8 Cabet. This school is generally recognized to have formed the foundation of modern planning. There were other pro g re s s is t groups to be found among a group of Marxists and Utopian Socialists. The progressist "model" is succinctly expressed by Choay: The progressist concept of space breaks with the old contiguous order of things, which regularization 67I b i d ., p. 52. f\ ft Francoise Choay, The Modern City: Planning in the 19th Century (New York: George Brazeller, 1969), p. 3l. 112 had not re je c te d but had simply modified by cutting into i t . From the outset the p ro g re ssist s p a tia l p a tte rn is not based on continuity of solids but on a co n tinuity of voids in which constructed elements have burst apart. Air, l ig h t , and greenery have be come symbols of progress, and d ispersal is considered e s s e n tia l to physical hygiene. Owen, for example, arranged the dwellings of his model towns, designed for 1,200 in h a b ita n ts, within square areas which are planted with gardens in the center and surrounded by 400 to 600 hectares of land...These small communities dot the countryside like F o u rie r's p h a la n s te re s . . . and the various versions of the b u ilt-u p communautary i d e a . .. The re la tio n sh ip founded on contiguity which p re viously preveailed in the organization of urban systems is replaced by a r e la tio n founded on association; e d ific es are grouped in a discontinuous manner, accord ing to function. Devised for reasons of efficiency and p ro d u ctiv ity , th is functional c l a s s i f i c a t i o n is the origin of zoning.69 At the beginning of the 20th Century, progressistism became urban p ro g re s s is t. The two main proponents of th is 70 group were Arturo Soria y Mata and Tony Garnier. Soria conceived the "ciudad l i n e a l , " the lin e ar c ity . I t consisted of a s tru c tu re 500 meters wide and of "whatever length necessary." Tony Garnier developed the idea of the in d u s tria l c ity . His design, which won the Prix de Rome, called for a population of about 35,000, s t r e e t zoning, favorable s i t ing (water power was s p e c i f i e d ) . I t also incorporated areas of greenery. The basic layout was a rectangular grid. 69I b i d . , p. 99. 7QI b i d . , p. 100. 113 Following the progressist urban group of planners, the c u ltu ra lis ts arose, as a reaction and criticism of existing urban situ atio n s. Some of the proponents included John Ruskin, William Morris and, in its urban form, Camillo S itte . The general form is best described by Choay: The new model was retrospective in that i t clung to the coherent and exemplary image of the preindustrial city in opposition to the contemporary image of urban incoherence. Underlying i t was a new form of nostalgia which had awakened gradually with the development of h isto ric a l studies at the end of the eighteenth century and with the application of h is to ric a l perspective to the study of art and c u ltu re .71 The main features of Camillo S i t t e 's ruban cultural model are continuity of stru ctu res, enclosed open spaces, d iversity, asymmetry and irre g u la rity . W e takes actual experience into account and stresses the e x iste n tial value of space. He actually defines a "behavioral space." S itte took part in the design, or rather redesign, of several c itie s (Altona, Brunn, and Linz). Although not a separate theoretical school of plan ning, Howard's Garden Cities exerted a considerable influ- 72 ence on schools of planning, and s t i l l exerts influence.. Definition of Planning Planning is an e ffo rt by man to control his environ ment or state in the future. Urban or city planning is an 71I b i d . , p. 102. 72I b i d . , p. 108. 114 attempt to fix or control the future sta te of the city . Although there are several schools of planning, any planning process must go through several steps. They are: 1. Project or plan goals must be set. 2. Predictions must be made of both exogenous and endogenous q u an tities. 3. Possible solutions must be conceived that w ill meet both 1) and 2) above. 4. The altern ate solutions must be compared and evaluated. 5. A selection must be made. 6 . The selected altern ate must be expressed in some d e fin itiv e form, e .g ., a comprehensive or master plan. Another meaningful c la s s ific a tio n of planning is 73 given by Professor Neil W . Chamberlain: 1. Ideological--the framing of objectives, both p re sent and future, and the use of value systems to lim it or prescribe instruments for achieving those objectives. This aspect is not confined to any p a rtic u la r ideology, certainly not to any of the isms. It involves the d e f i n itio n of the central goals of the u n it, any u n it, over time, guiding decisions on the use of it s assets. 2. Technical and economic--the question of the most e f f ic ie n t hypothetical means of achieving the system's objectives. This involves, among other things, consid erations of technology and factor proportions and the fam iliar economizing principles of economic theory. 3. Organizational and p o lit ic a l- - th e manipulated or contrived coherence of the p a rtic ip an ts in the system. This coherence is not autogenetic but must be managed with the use of such inducements as the value orientation of the system permits. It leads to a system of bargains. 73 Neil W . Chamberlain, Private and Public Planning (New York: McGraw-Hill Book Co., 1966) , p . 9T 115 There are several schools of planning. The most prominent of them are: 1. Functionalism. This school has adopted the famous "form follows function" dictum of Louis Sullivan. 2. The u rb a n is ts . This school would increase the density of c ity centers even fu rth e r. (Le Corbusier) 3. The g ree n -b e lt p lan n ers. This group re je c ts the c ity and wishes to retu rn to a r u ra l or urban-like existence. (E. Howard, R. Unwin) 4. The te ch n o lo g ists. (B. Fuller) On more p r a c t ic a l m a tters, planners are divided in a second way in to two groups: 1. Those who favor the p rep a ra tio n of a comprehen sive plan in great d e t a i l . 2. Those who favor incremental or adaptive p la n ning. In th is version of planning, a general framework is la id out and d e t a il s are f i l l e d in as the p ro je c t develops. Tools and Methods of Planning Some of the tools and methods commonly used by the planner are l i s t e d and b r i e f l y described. 1. The concept of Land Use. This is c e n tra l to a l l urban and regional planning. I t b a s ic a lly amounts to con s tr u c tin g a rele v a n t s e t , in the context of a p a r t i c u l a r problem, of categories of uses to which land could be put. 116 From h i s t o r i c a l data and t h e o r e t i c a l c o n s id e ra tio n s , c r i t e r i a can be formulated in terms of land use r a t i o s . 2. Zoning. Zoning is the device by which the p l a n n er hopes (a l i t t l e w i s t f u l l y , one suspects a t times) to co n tro l land use. 3. Graphics. Planners use a wide v a r ie ty of maps, c h a rts and overlays to i l l u s t r a t e v a ria b le s re le v a n t to the planning task . Recently, some of the more precocious p la n ners have managed to induce various computers in to producing maps in a wide v a r ie ty of siz e s and shapes. These include Symaps, contour and d en sity maps, and three-dim ensional maps. 4. Physical planning. This is a phase of planning t h a t deals with the ac tu al s t r e e t s , u t i l i t i e s , s t r u c t u r e s , spaces, e t c . , which w ill a c tu a lly be co nstructed. 5. Flow c h a rts . P lo tti n g of events or a c t i v i t i e s versus time. More r e c e n tly , planners have expanded t h e i r scope and now u su a lly conduct planning stu d ie s in the areas of: 6 . Economic a n a ly s is . Usually to the le v el of income and jo b s. Sometimes, the economics of p r o je c t fund ing are discussed. 7. Sociological-dem ographic s tu d ie s . These cover ages, economic c l a s s e s , p o p u latio n d i s t r i b u t i o n , e tc . 8 . Studies of tr a n s p o r ta tio n systems. 9. Environmental and ec o lo g ic a l s tu d ie s . 117 10. Finally, the principal approach and tool of planning, the Comprehensive Plan. One defin itio n of the general plan or the comprehen sive plan is given by T. J. Kent, as: The general plan is the o f f ic ia l statement of a municipal le g is la tiv e body which sets forth i t s major p o lic ies concerning desirable future physical develop ment; the published general-plan document must include a single, unified general physical design for the com munity, and i t must attempt to c la rify the r e l a t i o n ships between physical-development p o licie s and social and economic g o a l s . 74 The phrases "general plan," "comprehensive plan," "city plan," and "master plan," all re fe r to the same e n tity . According to Kent, the general or comprehensive plan has several primary uses; they are: 1. To improve the physical environment of the com munity as a se ttin g for human a c tiv itie s - -to make i t more functional, beau tifu l, decent, h ealth fu l, in te re stin g and e f f i c i e n t . 2. To promote the public in te re s t, the in te re s t of the community at large, rather than the in te re s ts of special groups or individuals within the community. 3. To f a c i l i t a t e the democratic determination and implementing of community policies on physical development. 4. To effect p o l i t i c a l and technical coordination in community development. ^ T . J. Kent, J r . , The Urban General Plan (San Fran cisco: Chandler Publishing Co., 1964J , p. 2T~. 118 5. To i n j e c t long-range considerations into the determination of sho rt-ran g e ac tio n s. 6 . To bring p ro fe ssio n a l and te ch n ic a l knowledge to bear on the making of p o l i t i c a l decisions concerning the 7 5 physical development of the community. Planning and City Design City or urban planning should be d istin g u ish e d from c ity design. As usually p ra c tic e d , the primary d ifferen ces a r e : 1. Planning is u su a lly d ire c te d toward a p ro je c t or an area of a c ity . 2. Planning most freq u en tly s t a r t s with a given 7 6 configuration of s t r u c t u r e s , f a c i l i t i e s , etc. 3. I t is usually less g e n e ra l, more r e s t r i c t i v e , than c ity design. Fewer problems have to be considered. Transport - General One of the c r i t i c a l systems th a t must e n te r into the tr a d e -o f f or c o s t-b e n e fit study is the tr a n s p o r ta tio n system. This system must include the tra n s p o rt costs of a l l products tran sp o rte d in to and out of any area of the c ity . 75I b i d ., p. 25-26. 7 The general form of the planning problem is prob ably more d i f f i c u l t of s o lu tio n than the c ity design prob lem. The planning problem s t a r t s with an array of a c t i v i t i e s , s tr u c t u r e s , f a c i l i t i e s ^ and must seek an optimal path to a desired array of s t r u c t u r e s , f a c i l i t i e s , e tc . 119 F irs t, some general definitions of the problem will be given. Then, the classical approaches to the transport problem will be reviewed. General Considerations In a broad context, the general transportation prob lem is simply that of moving some id en tifiab le object from one point in space to another, respecting essential quality standards for transportation system performance, where these standards relate in an effective manner to both adequate l i f e quality standards for people and ecological quality standards for the natural environment. In a general fashion a transportation system consists of: 1. A route (roadbed, airway, highway, sidewalk, or s tre e t right-of-way). 2. A vehicle (prime mover, container, e tc .) . 3. The object to be transported (a material object, people, information, or energy). 4. Transportation quality standards. 5. In the broader context, adequate li f e quality or environmental quality standards. Included in this broad definition are such tra n s portation devices or systems as a subway, motor vehicle/ highway, pipeline, telegraph, telephone, power lin e s, truck, railroad, a i rc ra ft, ships, sidewalks, conveyors, people movers, etc. 120 For the purpose of th is d is s e r ta tio n , a tra n s p o rta tio n system w ill be taken to mean the mix of tran sp o rta tio n modes, amounts, and q u a l itie s . Thus, for example, at some point in time, a tran sp o rta tio n system connecting two points could involve: 1. A double ra ilro a d track , three locomotives, ten passenger cars, and 100 boxcars, term inals, a telephone system, 2. T h irty -fiv e 30-ton trucks, connecting roads, and terminals or freight-handling f a c i l i t i e s , telephones, gas pipes, 3. A canal or 25 self-p ro p e lle d barges, p o rts, or 4. A sidewalk network, pedestrian ways, elev a to rs, e s c a l a to r s , e t c . The capacity, w, of these four modes could be re p re sented by w^ where, in the above examples, i = 1, 2, or 3, and refers to the mode ( r a il = 1, truck = 2, barge = 3, e t c . ) . For example, w^ would be represented in ton-miles of capacity per day. The demand (w^) would be a function of the cost per ton-mile. I t should be noted th a t there is a v a rie ty --o r r e a lly , a spectrum--of q u a l itie s . The q u a litie s of trans- _ 2 p o rtatio n w ill be represented by a vector quantity, S A mode w ill be defined as a method of tra n s p o rta tion. For example, an a i r c r a f t is one mode, a truck is another, a network of pedestrian ways is another, etc. 121 Urban Transport Systems As a multi-mode tra n s p o rta tio n system problem w ill be considered, a few points w ill be made on the requirements of (a) public t r a n s i t systems and (b) the p o s s i b i l i t i e s of m ultiple use of a tra n sp o rt system. Public T ransit System Considerations The basic urban tra n s p o rt problem is i l l u s t r a t e d symbolically in Figure 19. (The r e l a t i v e lo catio n s and sizes of the r e s i d e n t i a l , i n d u s t r i a l , and governmental areas are in d ic a tiv e of n e ith e r r e l a t i v e size nor lo c atio n . They are to be in te rp re te d as symbolical only.) The basic urban elements are: 1. R esidential. 2. In d u s tria l (employment). 3. Commercial (marketplace). 4. Governmental serv ices ( e .g ., municipal s e rv ic e s , public sa fe ty , e t c . ) . 5. Health. 6 . Education. 7. Recreation and c u ltu ra l a c t i v i t i e s . 8 . Waste disposal and p o llu tio n c o n tro l. 9. Transportation and m obility access. 10. Communication se rv ic es. 122 Multiple Use of Transportation Elements One item which must be considered is that of the multiple use of any given segment or mode of a tra n sp o rta tion system. For example, most urban rapid tr a n s i t systems transport only people. A f a i r question is to be asked: Can i t be used to transport other goods? Can the f a c i l i t i e s , land, tunnels, e t c ., be used for e n tire ly d iffe re n t p u r posed? Are these multiple uses such th at a g reater u t i l i t y , or net good, can be achieved? When multiple use is discussed, i t is necessary to consider multiple use of what. For example, consider a subway system. For i l l u s t r a t i o n , we w ill assume a minimum system--a BART-type of system with a local and express 77 element. The system w ill involve: 1. Land (about 15 to 20 acres per mile for com bined underground and overland r o u te s ) . 2. Roadbed. 3. Tunnels. 4. Rolling stock. 5. Control systems. 6 . U tili tie s (particularly power). 77 For p ra ctic a l purposes, i . e . , attempting to adapt rapid tr a n s i t to c itie s designed (unconsciously) by automo b ile s , a three-level system is probably mandatory, e . g . , local (40-50 mph, stop every m ile), express (70-90 mph, stop every four to five m iles), super-express (150-200 mph, stop every 20-40 m iles)--obviously, some trade-offs are necessary. 123 The land, generally, lie s over the tunnels. The c ity must purchase some or a l l of the land. However, i t can be used for a wide v ariety of purposes. Some of these a r e : 1. Freeways for motor vehicles. 2. Parking f a c i l i t i e s . 3. All city -co u n ty -state-F ed eral needs, etc. 4. Recreation, parks, etc. 5. Other separate or combined public and private 78 u se s. The Roadbed: I t should be p o s s ib le - -p a rtic u la rly with the cooperation of land use planning--to allow the roadbed to perform other functions. For example, the same roadbed could be used to: 1. Transport most or a ll r e t a i l goods to r e t a i l centers - -presumably located on the r a i l lin e s . 2. Transport some or a ll of the raw m aterials and manufactured goods: (a) to r e t a i l o u tle ts , (b) from import- tran sp o rt centers, or (c) to ex port-transport centers. 3. Cover some city-county-governmental needs within a i r - r i g h t s lim ita tio n s . 4. Transport a l l so lid waste to a solid-waste p ro cessing and tran sp o rt center. 78 On occasion, s tr e e ts can be used and sometimes "underground" easements can be bought or obtained. 124 5. Serve as a primary route fo r a l l or s e le c te d p u b lic u t i l i t y service needs. Note th a t a l l of the above functions could in clu d e, i f p roperly designed, extensive c a p a c itie s fo r s im p lifie d f r e ig h t handling through use of c o n ta in e riz a tio n concepts, "piggy-backing, M e tc . Note f u r th e r th a t the p assen g e r-u ser need never know th a t functions 1) through 4) are being c a rr ie d out i f the system is properly designed. The Tunnels: To accommodate the ra ilb e d and to remove i t from s ig h t and sound, tunnels must be co n stru cted . They can serve other needs, i f p roperly dispersed and expanded. For example, as noted e a r l i e r , the tunnels could be designed so as to in te g r a te a complex s e t of public u t i l i t y s e rv ic e s , including: 1. E l e c t r i c a l power transm ission li n e s . 2 . Water lin e s . 3. Telephone, cable TV, etc. 4. Computer u t i l i t i e s or o th e r c l o s e d - c i r c u i t inform ation networks, etc. 5. V e n tila tio n ducting, a irc o n d itio n in g u t i l i t i e s . 6 . P ip elin e networks fo r goods and m a te ria ls flow. 7. P e d e stria n u se s, including people-m overs, w alk ways, e tc . 8 . Various commercial and r e t a i l u ses, and even p u b lic or governmental s e rv ic e f a c i l i t i e s , e tc . 125 9. Building foundation s tru c tu re s , etc. There is some p o s s ib ility that sewage and flood control conduits could be laid down adjacent to or under the subway tunnels. Natural gas, o il, or gasoline p ip e lines could also share adjacent space, provided adequate safety precautions were provided. As a fin a l p o s s i b ilit y , the tunnels might, given proper design, be used as an e l e ment in a central air pollution dump. Again, i f properly used, a central air p ollution dump could provide some secondary benefits. A central a ir p o llution dump would be a volume or tunnel into which all p o llu tin g industries dumped th e ir polluted a ir. With a large enough amount of p o llu ta n ts , i t might be feasible to economically recover some of them, e .g ., sulphur from SO^, nitrogen (fixed as KNOj for f e r t i l i z e r ) , etc. Transportation - Suburban to Urban Most of the existing suburban to urban transport systems generally re fle c t complete dominance of the automo bile as the major mode of transport. L i t t l e consideration is given to countering these patterns of development. Cur rent general plan concepts and elements, zoning ordinances, building codes, and reliance on the formula of "highest and best use" guides suburban growth and operations. Failure to disperse and decentralize job opportunities into suburban areas i s , of course, the primary cause. Generally, the 126 schools, neighborhood and community shopping f a c i l i t i e s , and h e a lth care have, over time, remained f a i r l y dispersed so th a t u n iv e rsal re lia n ce on vehicular tra n sp o rta tio n has not matured. However, trends to centering of many of these urban functions into la rg e r "parks" or complexes are emerg ing; thus, g re a te r demands for vehicular use w ill r e s u l t . The extent of such d isp e rs a l or c e n tr a liz a tio n is nonethe less a g reat departure from the concentration of jobs in most la rg e r urban areas. R e stric tio n on urban form through r a th e r r i g i d "employment zoning" and " r e s id e n tia l zoning" forces c i t i e s into a p a tte rn of "jo b -ric h areas" and "job- poor are a s." Thus, perpetual commuting, much of i t c r o s s - town, is " e s s e n tia l" to urban l i f e . The development over the p ast few decades of the " in d u s tr i a l park" serves l i t t l e to counter the p re v a ilin g trend of job-richness or jo b poorness of the urban environment. New environmental con t r o l le g i s l a t i o n by Congress and the s ta te le g i s l a t u r e s , plus the r e a l i t y of a so p h is tic a te d technology, suggests th a t a new c r i t e r i o n for suburban development can r e s u l t , allowing for d isp e rs al of job o p p ortunities via r e s id e n tia l compatible employment f a c i l i t i e s (even "clean" in d u s t r ia l f a c i l i t i e s can be p o s t u l a t e d ) . It is important th a t e v a lu atio n c r i t e r i a and procedures be e s ta b lis h e d as regional p o lic ie s for synthesis of suburban and tra n sp o rta tio n c a p a b i l i t i e s . 127 Classical Approach to the Transport P'roblem This section w ill review some of the c la ssic al methods of transport analysis. They w ill be discussed in terms of the problem which w ill occur la te r in this d is s e r ta tio n , i . e . , the route selection problem. Classical Methods An excellent statement of the c la s s ic a l tran sp o rta tion problem appears in Dantzig's boolc. To quote: The cla ssic a l transportation problem arises when we must determine an optimal schedule of shipments th a t: (a) originate at sources (supply depots) where fixed stockpiles of a commodity are available; (b) are sent d ire c tly to th e ir fin al destinations (demand depots) where various fixed amounts are required; (c) exhaust the stockpiles and f u l f i l l the demand; hence, to ta l demand equals to ta l supply; and f in a lly , the cost must (d) s a tis fy a lin e ar objective function; that is , the cost of each shipment is proportional to the amount shipped, and the to ta l cost is the sum of the individual cos t s .79 This is the "Hitchcock" formulation of the transpor- 8 0 ta tio n problem. The precise formulation of this problem is as follows. There are m origins or sources and n destinations or sinks. Each destination requires a certain amount of the homogeneous product, b j ; each origin has an amount of the homogeneous product, a^. (j runs from 1 to m, and i 79 George B. Danzig, Linear Programming and Exten sions (Princeton University Press, 1963), p. 299. 8QI b i d . , p. 300. 128 runs from 1 to n, the are row requirements, the Ik are column requirements, and a^ ^ 0, bj j> 0). Furthermore, i t is assumed: m n • Jn ai = - K bj ■ 1=1 J=1 J There is a cost associated with shipping the product from a source, i , to a sink, j . The cost is C^. . The cost c o e ffic ie n ts , for p ra c tic a l reasons, are assumed to be posi tive and g reater than zero, i . e . , C^. > 0 . If is the actual amount of the product shipped, the problem then reduces to minimizing the form: ■ n cijxij > 0 under the row and column c o n s tra in ts, m i=l ^ ai n l xid - b j = l J J This amounts to determining the values of a matrix of which represents the optimal q u a n titie s of the p ro duct shipped from each origin to each d estin atio n . This is a c la s s ic a l lin e a r programming problem and is solvable by various methods, including the simple method. I t is not comparable to the problem at hand because: 1. In our case, the ’s are given. 129 2. The s iz e of the channels are not tr e a te d or s p e c if ie d . 3. Space, per se, does not appear in the c l a s s i c a l tra n s p o r ta tio n problem. There is no "route" problem. 4. There is no a l t e r n a t e tr a n s p o r t mode; thus, s iz in g a given tra n s p o rt system (or mode) does not appear. The Transshipment Problem A more s o p h is tic a te d form of the tr a n s p o r ta tio n problem is the transshipm ent problem. In th i s case, s h i p ments are not n e c e s s a r ily from o r ig in to d e s tin a tio n but may go v ia an interm ediate po in t (node) . Dantzig w rites a m a te ria l balance equation for each node: Gross supply = Amount in + amount produced ■ , 81 Amount out + amount consumed. Or, a t node j (these are the c o n s tra in t e q u a tio n s ) : ■ I ♦ v - I x :k * V j “ 1---n Ci^j) where: X^. = q u a n tity shipped from i to j Xjk = shipped from j to k a^* = production a t node j b •* = consumption a t node j X- = gross supply a t j . J J Again, the problem is to minimize the form: 81I b i d ., p . 335. (Note th at a ^ * and bj* and Xj * are a ll zero; we are back to the c la ssic a l transportation problem.) As in the case of the cla ssic al transportation prob lem, this is not applicable because: 1. In our case, the are known. 2. The size of a channel or transport mode is not treated. 3. No alte rn ate transport modes are considered. Ford-Fulkerson Theory Another approach to the transportation problem is via the Ford-Fulkerson Theory. This theory allows one to find the maximal from a source to a destination. Assume a source and a destination and several intervening nodes. This is i l l u s t r a t e d in Figure 11. The capacity of each channel is indicated by the number a fte r (to the right of) each node. The nodes are numbered sequentially from 1 to 16. The directio n of flow is indicated by arrowheads. The channel capacity from node i to node j can, in general, be denoted as • Thus, the fin a l flow from i to j (qi j) cannot exceed this value: 12 Destination Source Figure 11. The Ford-Fulkerson Theory 131 132 Obviously, some type of c o n tin u ity equation must hold; th u s, what goes in to a node goes out, or: £ qi j " ^ qi j = 0 * Flo\^s which do not correspond to linkages are assumed to be om itted. Thus, r e f e r r i n g to Figure 11: q 2^ or ^ 32* q56 or qg5 » e t c . , are not connected and are thus om itted from the sum. The source r e la tio n s h i p i s : Q + I <ii0 - I <i0j = ° , where Q i s the input to the e n tire system. At the d e s t i n a t i o n , the r e la tio n s h i p l qin ' E Q ' 0 must hold. The problem t r e a t e d by the Ford-Fulkerson Theory is to determine q . . in such a fashion as to maximize Q 1 J through the network while s a t i s f y i n g the preceding five r e l a t i o n s h i p s . This is not the problem a t hand for se v e ra l reasons; they are: 1. There is no f i n a l source or d e s tin a tio n . 2. There are no s p e c i f i c nodes. 3. There are no linkages w ith given c a p a c itie s . Thus, the Ford-Fulkerson Theory does not apply to the s i t u a t i o n at hand. CHAPTER IV REVIEW OF CITY DESIGN THEORIES AND M ETHODS Introduction This chapter w ill review the principles of city design with special emphasis on developments in the la st 100 to 160 years. The material w ill comei from several types of sources, and be organized into five sections; these sources and sections are: 1. H istorical information in c itie s that have been actually designed. Design methods w ill, natu ra lly , be emphasized. 2. Data from "th e o re tic al" c i t i e s , which have been designed or described but never b u ilt. 3. Approaches th at spring from contemporary city design p ractices. 4. Systems-oriented approaches. 5. A summary of the investigation and a weighing of the re su lts. One point that should be made clear is that there is no real theory of city design. There are a number of b its and pieces, approaches, some tools, etc. Cities have been designed in the past; however, i f there was a design methodology, i t has been lo st or forgotten. Thus, in 133 134 attempting to review c ity design methods, we are reduced to considering a number of h i s t o r i c a l fragments and utopian speculations plus some p r a c t ic a l approaches from planning and other f ie ld s . H isto ric a l C ities have most lik e ly been "designed" for three or four thousand years. Almost nothing of the methods of c ity design are known before Roman c i t i e s . Perhaps the e a r l i e s t d escrip tio n is to be found in Theseus^ (regarding A thens), "forming in his mind a great and wonderful design, he gathered a l l of the in h a b ita n ts of A ttic a into one town and made them one people." Further y e t, designing to enlarge his c i ty , Theseus in v ite d a l l stran g ers to come and "enjoy equal p riv ile g e s with the natives . Somewhat (in Romulus), Plutarch has a d escrip tio n of the founding and i n i t i a l design of Rome. According to Plutarch: "Romulus se t forth to b u ild h is c i ty ; and sent for the men of Tuscany who d irec ted him by sacred usages 3 and w ritte n r u le s ." i P lutarch, P lu ta rc h 's Lives, Romulus, tra n s . by John Dryden, revised by A. H. Clough (New York: Modern L ib r a r y ) , p . 14. 2I b i d . , p . 16 5I b i d . , p . 30. 135 The procedure they followed was to dig a c i r c u l a r tren ch , a f t e r s u ita b le ceremonies, about the "Mundis" or c e n ter. Romulus l a i d out the c i r c u l a r trench by plowing a furrow around the Mundis. This furrow marked the lo c a tio n of the c i ty w a l l . 4 Another e a rly c i ty to be i n t e n t i o n a l l y designed was Alexandria. It was founded in 332 B.C., by Alexander the Great, and was intended to serve as the c e n ter o f Greek r * influence in Egypt. -3 The name of the d esig n er, D einocrates, was preserved. The main design c o n sid e ra tio n s appear to be the need for a good, p ro te c te d harbor and fo r m il ita r y G s e c u rity . There is l i t t l e doubt t h a t , in the design of most e a rly c i t i e s , d e f e n s i b i l i t y played a prominent ro le . Athens 7 and Thebes were b u i l t on d i f f i c u l t , but d e fe n s ib le , s i t e s . Early Rome undoubtedly used one or more of the seven h i l l s defensively. To quote L. Munford: The p rin c ip le s th a t d ic ta t e d c i ty design were a combination of t r a d i t i o n and defense. The i n i t i a l 4I b i d . , p. 31. ^Encyclopedia B rita n n ic a , A lexandria (New York: The Encyclopedia B rita n n ic a Co., 19l0) , V ol. 1, Eleventh E d itio n , p. 570. (DGH = David George Hogarth, M.A.) 6 Ibid. 7 Only Sparta was b u i l t on le v e l ac c e ssib le land. But the c ity was an armed camp. 136 design was a rectangle surrounded by a wall. Thus, the design was copied from the camp of the Roman Legionary. ° The Roman Empire exerted an enormous and decisive influence on city design in western Europe. The Empire, at its height, contained approximately 5,627 separate c itie s g throughout Europe, Asia Minor and Africa. Roman c itie s reflected several influences; the principle of these were: 1. The fam iliar (to the Romans) form of the Legion n a i r e ’s Camp. While marching in a h o stile area, the Legions constructed one camp every night. I t featured a ditch (a moat, i f possible) and earthen walls, eight to ten feet high. Wooden, p alisad e-lik e gates were included. To quote L. Munford: Many c i t i e s designed and b u ilt by Rome were r e t i r e ment c itie s for legionaires, thus i t is not surprising that "camp design" should exert a dominant influence. ”0 2. A second force present in many municipal designs was the urge to emulate the luxuries of Rome. Thus through out the Empire, certain amenities were repeated again and again. Typically, there were baths, forums, arenas, public lav ato ries, th e a te rs, e t c . ^ 8 Lewis Munford, The City in History (New York: Har- court, Brace and World, 1961) , p . 206. 9I b i d . , p. 205. 1QIbid. U Ib id . , p. 208. 137 3. A th ir d force was p re se n t, i f not of too much impact. This was the c ity designers. Thus, Hygenus, a Roman a r c h i t e c t , is quoted (by Munford) as saying: The id e a l...to w n should be 2,400 by 1,600 f e e t , since any g rea ter length might endanger defense by i n d i s t i n c t signals along i t s w a l l s . 1* Next, the design t '■ ories and methods of some s p e c i f i c c i t i e s w ill be reviewed. London In 1666, much of ce n tral London was burned in an exceedingly large f i r e . This introduced the opportunity for some s u b s ta n tia l attempts at c i ty design. Much of the actual design was done by Christopher Wren, although John 13 Evelyn did some of the e a rly work. At the time he redesigned London, Sir Christopher Wren was a 34-year-old mathematician and astronomer. He had also served in the King's Office of Works, where he had designed a chapel and a u n iv e rs ity th e ate r. Sir Christopher Wren's s t r e e t plan consisted of a la rg e , somewhat p l a s t i c g rid in the c ity center plus a ra d ia l p a tte rn around the commercial c e n te r . 14 13 P a u l D . S p r e i r e g e n ( E d . ) , On t h e A r t of D e s i g n i n g C i t i e s : S e l e c t e d E s s a y s of E l b e r t P e e t s ( C a m b r i d g e , M a s s . : M IT P r e s s , 1 9 6 8 ) , p. 1 1 5 . ------------------------------------------ 14I b i d . , p. 123. 138 One of the primary features of the plan was the large number of churches which terminated s tre e t vistas. There was apparently a strong resemblance to the designs of Campo Marzo of Rome. Other than the emphasis on pleasant or impressive vistas and an appreciation of geometry, there appears to be no real theory of design. Washington, D.C. Washington, D.C., is an example of a major city designed in the 18th Century. The city was "located," afte r considerable Congressional debate, near Georgetown, Mary land, near the lower falls on the Potomac River. This occurred on July 16, 1790.^ About 1791, L'Enfant was com missioned to design the capital city. Major L'EnfantT s design procedure took into account a number of factors; the principle of these were: 1 fi\ 1. "Number and nature of the publick buildings." 2. The designs of other capitals and major c i tie s , including ( L ’ E n f a n t ' s spelling) "london, madry, p aris, Ams- 17 lerdam, naples, Venice, genoa, florence." 15 H. Paul Caemmerer, The Life of Pierre Charles L'Enfant, Planner of the City beaTutTfuT (Washington, D.C. : National Republic Publishing Co., 1950), p. 134. 16I b i d ., p. 146. 17I b i d . , p. 146-147. 139 18 3. Topography, with emphasis on view s i t e s . 19 4. Transportation and communication. 5. M ilitary considerations. There was also considerable influence from sources other than Major L'Enfant, G. Washington, or the government, namely, from real estate speculators. In fact, the f i r s t big land promotion sale took place before a map was even 20 a v a ila b le . The overall features of L'Enfant's plan were retained, although the d etailed development of the city was l e f t to chance and "free e n te rp ris e ." The city of Washington, D.C., 108 years l a t e r , is s t i l l visually charming but rather d if f i c u lt to live in. There is no public t r a n s i t , housing is poor and old, and the s tre e ts are ill-a d a p te d to motor t r a f f i c . A part of the early history of Washington, D.C., sounds like contemporary real estate manipulations. To quote Mr. E. Peets; The land Washington wished to include in the city was owned by some nineteen proprietors and by numerous holders of lots in two small paper towns. The President asked two friends at Georgetown secretly to get options on these lo ts and on c e rtain areas whose owners he thought might make trouble. Later, but before reveal ing ju s t where in the d i s t r i c t the c ity would lie or at 18I b i d . , p. 151. 19I b i d . , p. 151-153. 2QI b i d . , p. 171. 140 le a s t would ce n te r, Washington induced the p ro p rie to rs to accede to t h i s program: the land to be deeded to two tr u s t e e s ; the c ity to be la id out in s t r e e t s , l o t s , and public areas; the p ro p rie to rs to receive back h a l f the lo ts and to be paid s ix t y - s i x d o lla rs an acre for land taken for p u b lic buildings and parks but to receive nothing fo r the land taken for s t r e e t s . This obviously disposed the a u th o ritie s to l i b e r a l i t y in the number and width of s t r e e t s . 2! 2 2 As the s t r e e t s were very la rg e , 59 percent of the t o ta l land area, the c ity was la rg e , about 6,111 acres. Of t h i s , 541 acres were obtained for the Federal government, 982 acres were put in to lo ts sold by the government, and 982 acres were returned to the o rig in a l owners to be sold. There were about 20,000 lo ts in a l l . I t should be noted th at both George Washington and Thomas Je ffe rso n also produced prelim inary designs for Washington, D.C. J e f f e r s o n 's plan was a simple checker board; Washington' s plan is not ex tan t. L 'E n fan t's plan took topography into account and was very s e n s itiv e to s i t e s and v i s t a s . I t combined a r e c tangular g rid t^ith broad avenues a t acute angles to the g rid , i . e . , 30 to 45 degrees. L'Enfant experienced a g reat deal of d i f f i c u l t y in constructing h is plan: The burden of a ll th is on L'Enfant can be judged from the facts th a t he had to do a considerable amount of surveying of land in large p a r t wooded and rendered 21 Spreiregen, On the Art of Designing C i t i e s , p. 5. 22I b i d ., p. 6 . 141 almost impassable by recent lumbering operations, that he was doing at le a st a certain amount of superinten dence of construction, that he was making detailed studies for canals, bridges, parks, and the public buildings, and th at his plan was not worked out on paper merely nor from a good topographic map but was in part adjusted to points on the ground of which the exact location was not k n o w n .2 3 "His stupendous plan is full of exasperating, almost 2 4 imprudently w illfu l a b su rd itie s." At one point in time, he proposed a cascade of water coming out of the Capitol building 100 feet wide and 40 feet high. It should be noted that he had no experience in e ith er architecture or planning. It should also be noted that there are resemblances between Wren's third plan for London and L'Enfant's plan for land. Both overlaid s tre e ts at acute angles on a rectangular grid, both had "grand avenues" leading up to vistas. The rectangle - acute s tre e t mix probably made sense with horse and carriage t r a f f i c - - i t certainly does not work well with the automobile. There is also a strong resemblance between the plans of L'Enfant and John Evelyn's plans to rebuild London after the 1666 fire . Well, the moment I saw this revised plan of Evelyn's I thought of Washington. Without hesitating, you can pick out on i t stre e ts that correspond to Massachusetts, New York, and Pennsylvania Avenues. But did L'Enfant have Evelyn's plan? That question cannot be answered with certainty either way. The only 23I b i d . , p. 7. 24I b i d . , p. 12. 142 evidence l i e s in the s im ila rity of the plans. But i t is not at a l l impossible that L'Enfant had a copy of the Evelyn plan. He had a large co lle c tio n of a r c h i te c tu r a l books and engravings, a l l of them sto len , the winter a f te r he planned Washington.25 Minor Towns Several towns, or at le a s t se ttlem en ts, based on "id eal" in d u s tria l arrangements, were actu ally b u i l t , e . g . , S a l t a i r founded by T. Salt in 1857, Port Sunlite founded by W . H. Lever in 1884, and Bournville founded by G. Gadbury in 1895.26 Another concept was put forth by Benjamin Richardson which stre ssed hygiene. The town planned by Richardson and named Hygeia was designed by John S. Buckingham and named V ictoria. I t occupied one square mile and consisted of 2 7 concentric rings of housing centered on a square. Some standards were imposed; these included: o Hygiene o Fresh a ir o Light o Water . 25I b i d . , p. 21. 9 ft Leonardo Benevolo, Trans, by Judith Landry, 'The Origins of Modern Town Planning (Cambridge, Mass.: MlT P re s s , 1967), p. 120. 27I b i d . , p. 129. 143 Other than Cartesian geometry and e f f o r ts to main ta i n hygiene, there was no re a l design method. Another ea rly town designer with a strong sense of so c ia l ju s t i c e was Robert Owen. His p rin c ip a l objective was to provide a decent and liv a b le environment for m ill workers, whether they liked i t or not. To quote Paul and Percival Goodman: The idea of a p a t e r n a l i s t i c company town, an indus try and i t s entrepreneur providing the housing and community of i t s workers, goes back at l e a s t to Robert Owen's New Lanark (c. 1800), and is as contemporary as O l i v e t t i 's Ivrea in I t a l y . Owen's aim was to remedy a sick so ciety and re s to re morale, and he looked forward, as O l iv e tti also seems to, to a kind of cooperative socialism . The expanding cap italism and individualism of the nineteenth century exploded Owen's rec tan g le s; the Owenite communist experiment at New Harmony la sted only three years (1825-1828).28 T heoretical C ities Among the th e o re tic a l c i t i e s should be mentioned those proposed by Le Corbusier. These include the V ille Radieuse, La V ille Contemporaire, and the Plan Voisin. The l a t t e r is an adaptation of La V ille Contemporaire to ce n tral P a r i s . They combine the skyscraper, f i f t y to s ix ty -s to ry o ffic e buildings with e ig h t-s to ry apartment houses, exten sive open greens, and two- and th re e -le v e l roads. The ce n tral business d i s t r i c t has very high d e n s itie s , 1200 2 8 Paul and P ercival Goodman, Communitas (Chicago: U niversity of Chicago Press, 1947), p7 59-60. 144 persons p er acre. The apartment areas e x h ib it d e n s itie s 2 9 of 120 persons p er acre. In the o u t s k i r t s , there are " c ife j a r d i n s , " garden c i t i e s of detached s in g le -fa m ily r e s id e n c e s . Railways, lo c a l and i n t e r c i t y , are underground, a irp la n es land on the ro o f of the c e n t r a l l y located r a i l road s t a t i o n . The design i s , in a sense, the opposite of the g a rd en -city l in e of thought. Here, the country is brought in to the c i t y - - t h e c i t y becomes a park. To quote Le Corbusier: "Suburbs must be elim inated and n atu re 30 brought in to the c i t i e s them selves." In h is own d isc u ssio n of c i t y design, Le Corbusier becomes, a t tim es, a l i t t l e extreme. To him, business is the sa v io r of modern s o c ie ty . To quote him d i r e c t l y : In P a ris , in 1919, the g re at new r e l i g i o n was founded: business! Making money, organizing for the purpose of making a l o t of money; business lunches, conferences, s c i e n t i f i c management. The r ig h t man at the r i g h t p la c e , e t c . . . 3-1 - Le C o rb u sie r's design for a c ity expressed in h is 32 V ille Radieuse is e s s e n t i a l l y an ex e rc ise in ego. I t 2 9 Arthur B. Galleon and Simon E isn e r, The Urban P a t te rn (Princeton, M .J.: D. Van Nostrand Co., I n c . , 1930) , p"! 160. 3QI b i d . , p. 104. 31 Le C orbusier, The Radient City (New York: Orion P re ss, 1967), t r a n s . by: P art 1 , P. Knight; P arts II and IV, E. Levieux; P arts I I I , VT, VII, and V III, unknown. 145 combines some penetrating in sig h ts with an overactive imagi nation. For example, there is a f a i r l y d eta ile d and te c h n i cal discussion of a i r q u a lity o r, as Le Corbusier exp esses 33 i t , "exact a i r " This is followed by discussions of 7 A acoustical standards and the need for adequate lig h tin g . Later, solar rad ia tio n and temperature control are both dis- 35 cussed in a knowledgeable fashion. Shortly a f te r t h i s , the use of armor p la tin g on the roofs to d e fle c t bombs and pumps in the swimming pools to be used to wash away gas in case of war are both discussed. Le Corbusier does, at l e a s t , s ta te that there are standards th a t should be met, e . g . , the "exact a i r , " acous t i c s , lig h tin g , etc. Regarding the planning of c i t i e s , he s t a t e s : The basic m aterials of c ity planning are: Sun, Sky, Trees, S t e e l , Cement, 37 in that order of importance. 33I b i d . , p. 40-44. 34I b i d . , p. 47. 35I b i d . , p. 49-50. 36I b i d . , p. 60-61. 37I b i d . , p. 76. 146 How one proceeds from these g e n e ra litie s and s t a n dards to any of his " v i l l e s , " he does not make c le a r; i f there is a design process, he does not elu cid a te upon i t . Le Corbusier apparently does not consider e ith e r so c ia l or economic problems to any ex te n t. His economics, what there is of i t , is very well expressed by Paul and Percival Goodman: "The c ity th at can achieve speed w ill achieve success. Work is today more intense and c a rrie d on a t a quicker r a te . The whole question becomes one of d aily intercommunication with a view to s e t t l i n g the s t a t e of the market and the condition of labor. The more rapid the intercommunication, the more w ill business be expedited." Had th is ever before been so su ccin ctly stated? The passage was w ritte n by an a r c h i te c t before the coming of the giant computers and before we had learned to use the magic words "cybernetics" and "feedback."38 The same source comments on the scope and depth of so c ia l thought: Le Corbusier imagines, on the contrary, th a t by the negative device of removing bad physical conditions, people can be brought to a p o s itiv e enthusiasm for th e i r jobs. He is haunted by the thought of the lik elih o o d of boredom, but he puts his f a i t h in freedom through order. The order is apparent; what is the content of the freedom? Apart from a p e c u lia r emphasis on a t h l e t i c sports and t h e i r s u p e rio rity to c a lis th e n ic s ( ! ) , th is planner has nothing, but nothing, to say about education, sexu a l i t y , entertainm ent, f e s t i v a l s , p o l i t i c s . Meantime, his c itiz e n s are to behold everywhere, in the hugest and c le a r e s t expression in rein fo rced concrete and g la ss, the fa c t th a t t h e ir orderly freedom w ill l a s t forever. I t has 500 foot prisms in p r o f il e ag ain st the s k y . 39 38 Goodman, Communitas, p. 44. 39I b i d . , p. 49. I 147 Another "th e o retic al" city was Frank Lloyd Wright’s Broadacres or Broadacre City. Broadacre City is a continu ous rep etitio n of a p attern of small p lo ts , farms, and i n dustries in a "land f i l l i n g " pattern. The underlying idea is that of Jeffersonian demo cracy, a society of s e lf - s u f f i c ie n t free men owning th e ir i a 40 own land. The nature of Broadacres, according to Paul and Percival Goodman, is: The Broadacres plan of Frank Lloyd Wright could be considered as an attempt to bring farm values to an in d u stria l town. "A human being from the time he is born," says Wright, "is e n title d to a piece of ground with which he can identify himself by the use of i t . "41 Frank Lloyd Wright further f e l t that i f a man did not work, he did not have the right to eat; in th is case, work meant, among other things, working one's own l a n d . ^ Broadacres is hardly a city . To quote Goodman again: Broadacres is conceived as a kind of county se a t, a rela tiv e concentration occurring occasionally, in a less dense population stretching in d e fin ite ly . Even so, i t provides four square miles for 1400 fam ilies, almost up to the formula "An acre per person--a maximum of, say, ten acres for a farmer." (The Garden City, we 40 Victor Gruen, The Heart of Our Cities (New York: Simon and Schuster, 1964) , p . 180 . ^Goodman, Communitas, p. 88. 42 Frank Lloyd Wright, On Architecture (New York: Grosset and Dunlap, 1941), p. 228. 148 remember, has 12 fam ilies to the ac re .) I t is not a c ity plan but a continuing region, varying according to the topography. Broadacre City is "everywhere and nowhere." I t stre tc h e s in a l l d ire c tio n s . For Wright the s a lie n t features of neo-technology are "automo- b i l i t y " and e l e c t r i c communication.43 There is no apparent design methodology beyond a few p la titu d e s and Wright's personal lik es and d is l i k e s . V ictor Gruen presents a th e o re tic a l c ity and his approach to urban design in his book, The Heart of Our 44 C i t i e s . He notes th a t a b io lo g ica l c e ll co n sists of a 45 nucleus surrounded by protoplasm enclosed in a membrane. He fu rth e r comments th a t th is type of organization pervades a l l systems known to man, "from the one ce lled amoebas to 46 the p lanetary system." Therefore, Gruen reasons, "I sub mit th a t th is c e llu l a r system is applicable to urban organ- 47 isms as w e ll." Gruen goes on to v isu a liz e a m etropolitan organism made up of c e l l s , each with a nucleus and protoplasm. He then groups ce lls to form "towns, and towns to form c i t i e s , 4 8 and c i t i e s to form the 'metropolis of tomorrow.'" 4 3 Loc. c i t . , p. 90. 44 Gruen, The Heart of Our C i t i e s . 45I b i d . , p. 271. 46Ibid. 47Ibid. 48I b i d . , p. 272. 149 He s t a r t s with a p o pulation of 3,300,000 and divides th is up between ten "p la n e ts" (280,000 each) and one "sun" (500.000). Then, each p la n e t is i t s e l f a s t e l l a r system with ten subplanets or towns (25,000 each) and a sun (30.000). I t d o e s n 't end h ere--eac h subplanet or town, e tc . S ta r tin g with the above framework, Gruen computes the siz es (population) of the various su b p la n ets, p la n e ts , and suns. There are also some p la n eta ry tr a n s p o r ta tio n c o n s id e ra tio n s. The design p ro cess, i f any, is none too c le a r . The reasoning behind i t amounts to a chain of loose analogies which could r e s u l t in a wide v a r ie ty of f in a l c o n f ig u r a tio n s . In a recen t a r t i c l e in S cie n ce, C. Doxiadis main ta in s th a t five b a s ic p r in c ip l e s have "designed" a l l human 49 s e ttle m e n ts . They are: 1. A d e s ire to maximize co n tacts with the elem ents, o th e r people and the works of man. 2 . An endeavor to minimize e f f o r t . 3. Optimization of p r o te c tiv e space. This includes "com fortable" distances from man, animals and other o b je c ts . 4. Optimization of the q u a lity of man's contacts with h is environment. 49 Constantinos A. Doxiadis, " E k i s t i c s , The Science of Human S e ttle m e n ts ," Science, Vol. 170, No. 3956, October 23, 1970, p. 293. 150 5. Man organizes his settlements in order to o p t i mize items 1) through 4), above. He views settlements as "systems of energy mobilized by m an."^ Doxiadis does recognize the problem of the quality 51 of l i f e ; he mentions a ir, water and thermal pollution. He also comments on another aspect of l i f e q u ality , namely, the number of daily face-to-face contacts any person makes. These, he maintains, have decreased in the modern city . Contemporary Town and City Design This section w ill review" some of the current design procedures and methods u tiliz e d in new c itie s and towns. The f i r s t section w ill cover United States e f f o rts , the second, B ritish New Town methods, the th ird , effo rts in USSR and Poland, and a fourth w ill discuss the approach put forward by the United Nations. A fin a l section w ill discuss methods in other parts of the world. United States There is a great deal of talk and some a c tiv ity in the United States about new towns and city design. No real design approach has arisen. Further, much of what is being done strongly resembles housing tra c ts or developments. 5QI b i d . , p. 385. 51I b i d . , p. 399. 151 There are two d i s t i n c t exceptions to th is ru le, Columbia and Reston. Columbia exhibits at le a s t some attempt at coherent design and, apparently, is re a lly i n tended to evolve into a c ity . For th is reason, the design of Columbia w ill be discussed in some d e t a il . The Garden Cities Ebenezer Howard was the f i r s t rea l town planner or designer. He considered a wide v ariety of factors besides v is t a s , hygiene or pure p r o f it s . His design for a c ity , or at le a s t a prototype c ity , was put fo rth in his book, Garden C ities of Tomorrow, f i r s t published in 1 9 0 2 .^ The book was very in f lu e n t ia l for decades. In fa ct, i t s influence is s t i l l being f e l t , although occasionally in senses not intended by the author. This h isto ry of the book and i t s e ffe c ts is f u ll of paradoxes. It endowed a l l modern languages with a new term (Garden City, C ite-Jardin, G artenstadt, Diudad- ja rd in , T u in sta d ), and though this term was given a most p recise meaning by Howard, everywhere i t has been used p e r s is te n tl y in a sense e n tire ly d iffe re n t from, indeed opposed to, the au th o r’s d e f i n i t i o n . ^3 Howard was no utopian. In Chapter 9, he considers both the p ast fa ilu re s and possible d i f f i c u l t i e s . He r e a l izes the necessity of experiment and the fact that i t may be necessary to p e r s i s t . 5 2 Ebenezer Howard, Garden Cities of Tomorrow (Lon don: Faber and Faber L t d . , 1946). 5 3 Ibid. (from the preface, by T. Osborne). 152 He i s o l a t e s the c h ie f cause of f a i l u r e of previous attempts as both human and i d e o l o g i c a l . ^ 4 He notes some of 5 5 the d i f f i c u l t i e s a s so c ia te d w ith Communism and Socialism . I t is also i n te r e s ti n g to note th a t Howard was heav ily influenced by E. Bellamy's Looking Backward, and 5 6 the seq u el, E q u a li ty . 0 Some of the other in flu en c es on 5 7 Howard were Henry George and Thomas More. I t should be noted th a t Howard's planning was c a r rie d out at a f a i r l y high le v e l for the p erio d . There was ra th e r extensive p h y sic al planning; maximum d e n s itie s were 5 8 s p e c ifie d ; lo t siz es were c o n tro lle d ; the i n d u s t r i a l , commercial and r e s id e n ta l balance was considered, as was employment. Greenbelts and a g r ic u ltu r e were made a p a r t 5 9 of the c i ty . T ra n sp o rtatio n was planned, as were the 6 0 u t i l i t i e s . There is r a th e r d e t a il e d f in a n c ia l planning for both c o n stru c tio n and o p eratio n . 54I b i d . , p. 113. 55I b i d . , p. 114. 56I b i d . , p . 20. 57I b i d . , p. 29-30. 58I b i d . , p . 54. 59I b i d . , p . 55 . 60tu . , Ib id . 61I b i d . , p. 70-73. 153 Even though well-equipped with parks and greenbelts and close to a g ric u ltu ral areas, Howard's conception is unquestionably an urban e n tity --n o t a return to nature or a suburb. It was conceived to stand alone. Garden City Design Approach Howard was one of the f i r s t to recognize that the size of a town or city is a subject which should be set in the design. He further saw a number of important develop ments in c itie s which were not "rediscovered" for l i t e r a l l y decades by planners and so cio lo g ists; some of these are: 1. The large increase in population which led to the increase in the demand for urban f a c i l i t i e s . 2. The need for some type of social control in the m unicipality. "Free enterprise" doesn't seem to provide the necessary framework for the control of land use. And, in the sp ecific areas of design: 3. He considered city design to be a team e f f o r t . 4. The need for some type of environmental p la n ning. This i s , in fact exhibited in the book’s t i t l e . 5. The need for flu id or incremental planning (sometimes called adaptive planning). 6 . The need for d etailed economic planning. To quote Howard d irec tly : 62I b i d . , p. 10-11. 154 The problem, th e re fo re , seems to be how to make such su ita b le arrangements as w ill at once; (a) Induce tenants of the shopkeeping class to come and s t a r t in business, o ffe rin g to the community adequate r a te - r e n ts . (b) Prevent the absurd and w asteful m u ltip lic a tio n of shops. . . (c) Secure the advantages usually gained (or sup posed to be) by competition--such as low p ric e s , wide range of choice, f a i r dealing, c i v i l i t y , etc , (d) Avoid the ev ils attending monopoly.63 Radburn An early United States attempt was th a t of Radburn, New Jersey. The primary planning was done by Albert Mayer and Matthew N ow iecki.^ While no rea l design methodology or approach is laid out, three p rin c ip a l ideas shaped Radburn. They were: 1. T ra ffic safety . There was complete separation of p ed e strian and vehicular t r a f f i c . 2. The greenbelt idea. This is d ire c tly from the Garden City experience. 3. The c e llu l a r neighborhood approach. Super blocks with enclosed green spaces were u t i l i z e d . Columbia An a r t i c l e by Morton Hoppenfeld discusses the p la n ning process used for Columbia, Maryland. Hoppenfeld f i r s t 63I b i d . , p. 97-98. ^L ew is Munford, The City in History (New York: H arcourt, Brace and Wor 1 d , 1 £ T 6T ) , p • 502 . 155 notes the diversity of the group that planned Columbia; i t included land developers, economists, designers, engineers, mortgage bankers, urban planners, real estate developers, scheduling and marketing experts, and professionals in a wide variety of a r e a s . ^ Hoppenfeld notes the fact that a "delicate balance that must be struck between effic ie n t engineering practice, a positive sensual response and maximum market acceptance" j 66 is required. The two fundamental goals for Columbia were: 1. To create a social and physical environment that would work for people. 2. To make a p ro fit. Emphasis on 2) leads one to suspect that i t was the primary goal. The planning process basically consisted of: 1. Site selection. 2. Development financing. fs 7 The author notes p artic u larly the very c r iti c a l and complex nature of a development financing process. It certainly appears complex; i t involved the Howard Research ^5Morton Hoppenfeld, "Sketch of the Planning-Build ing Process for Columbia, Maryland," American In stitu te of Planners Journal, November 1967, p. 398. 67I b i d . , p. 400. 156 and Development Corporation, the Connecticut General Life Insurance Company, The Rouse Company, Chase Manhattan Bank, and the Teachers Insurance and Annuity Association of a • 68 America. 3. Economic model. Hoppenfeld remarks on the f r u s tr a ti o n caused by an "economic model." This model was, to quote him, "a highly complex se rie s of p ro jectio n s and con je c tu re s showing when and how the investors are going to get 69 th e ir money back and then make a s u b s ta n tia l p r o f i t . " 4. In te re s t charges and taxes must be considered. In te re s t and taxes had to be paid during the planning stage. Thus, time was money; this le n t a sense of urgency to the planning process. 5. Very rough land use decisions were made using USGS base maps. 6 . Detailed association and communication was opened with Howard County rep rese n ta tiv e s. 7. P la s tic overlays were prepared for USGS maps. These indicated surface features such as tr e e s , drainage, watercourses, peaks, ridges, v alley s, lake s i t e s , etc. Much of the early work was done using USGS maps which are two inches per mile. This was done during the land acq u isitio n phase so secrecy had to p re v a il. Later, f i ft Up to th is p o int, about $50,000,000 had been borrowed. 69I b i d . , p. 401. 157 a e r i a l maps on a scale of one inch per 200 fe e t and one inch 70 per 50 fe e t were used. 8 . Various important a c t i v i t i e s were located ( e .g ., schools, in d u stry , low- and hig h -d en sity housing, and lake s i t e s ) . The method of lo c a tio n was apparently a "combina- 71 tion of mapped data and p ersonal f a m i l i a r i t y ." In an i n te re s tin g phrase, Hoppenfeld speaks of " c r i t i c a l economics 7 2 of 'proper usage* (th at i s , in harmony with n a t u r e ) ." 9. An i n t e r d i s c i p l i n a r y discussion group was formed. This group met every two days for about six months. The discussions were led by a psychologist. Papers were given by "experts" in each relev an t f ie ld . 10. Conscious decisions were made. A fter many group meetings and the attempted p rep aratio n of a summary document (which "woefully f a ile d to capture the e s s e n ti a l value of 73 the group meetings* 1 ), some d e f in ite decisions were made by the p r in c ip a l planners. In summary, Hoppenfeld says: The essence of our planning technique is the con tinued amassing and r e f in in g of a re s e rv o ir of p e r t i nent data and knowledge to be applied in the daily need fo r decision-making; even the postponement of a choice becomes s i g n i f i c a n t in the p rocess. The 70I b i d . . 7l Ibid. 72Ibid. 73I b i d . , p. 403. 158 plan is at once as general and as sp ecific as the s i t u ation demands. It can concurrently consist of the assignment of a broad category of possible a c tiv itie s (land uses) to a piece of land, the d e ta il s i t e plan of a development area, and the sp e cific design of building and landscape. The planning and approach u ti l i z e d in Columbia appears to be f a irly typcial of the methods used in America today. I t leads to resu lts which are at le a s t v isu a lly a ttra c tiv e and possibly pleasant to live in. I t ce rtain ly is superior to much tra c t ’’planning" ( if the word can be used at a ll) and probably to most communities which ju st "grew." The final re su lts are by no means in and w ill not be for several decades. Will Columbia prove to be a p le a sant place to "be"? Will open spaces stay open? Will recreational spaces s t i l l be devoted to recreation? To return to the design process, s p e c ific a lly , there are several rather serious, i f not f a t a l , flaws. F ir s t, there is l i t t l e re al planning. Most of what was fin a lly done was done under a sense of urgency, i f not s tr e s s , and the fin a l design decisions were made as a re su lt of personal fam iliarity and maps. A second flaw lies in the attempt to equate p ro fit maximization with some type of social-psychological-sensual 75 optimum. While some such case can be made in a highly 159 idealized competitive system, i t is highly doubtful i f th is has any bearing on c ity design or construction. A th ir d flaw lie s in d ire c tly and b la ta n tly dropping any attempt to serve anyone other than the upper middle cla sse s. To quote, "Columbia was designed to be a ttr a c ti v e to th a t major segment of the population which is economi cally viable" and, l a t e r , there is mention of "uneconomic f a m ilie s . " 76 Reston 7 7 In an a r t i c l e by R. E. Simons, president of Simon E nterprises, the bu ild ers of Reston, V irginia, i t is main tained that the planning of Reston began with a philosophy. The top p r i o r i t i e s were: 1. For the people who live and work or both in Reston to have the widest possible opportunities to use th e ir f u l l p o te n tia l of mind and body. 2. For i t to be possible for any who want to stay in this single community to do so throughout th e i r liv e s. Changes in circumstances of age, family compo s it io n or fin an cial condition s h a ll not make uprooting in e v ita b le or even p referable. 3. For the importance and dignity of each i n d i vidual to be considered over the importance of the community,78 subject to the co n strain t th at a p r o f i t had to be made. 76I b i d . , p. 399. 77Planning 1964, Selected Papers from the APSO National Planning Convention (American Planning Society, 1964) , p. 151. 78I b id . 160 Simon next determined th a t the ch ie f executive of Reston must be the man who worked out the philosophy for i t s p lan ; he must be i n t e r e s t e d in the c ity and the people. The only person meeting a l l of these requirements was d e t e r mined by Mr. Simon to be, in f a c t , Mr. Simon. Simon also m aintains th a t the success of Reston, to d a te , ...s te m s in g reat p a r t from our having secured the se rv ic es of the c o u n try 's b e s t s o c ia l planners, land p la n n e rs, economists, lawyers, a r c h i t e c t s , landscape a r c h i t e c t s , engineers and s p e c i a l i s t s in h e a lth , educa tio n r e c r e a tio n a l f a c i l i t i e s , graphics and l i g h t i n g . 79 He goes on to s t r e s s the amount of time and e f f o r t spent in working with the lo cal and s t a t e o f f i c i a l s . Thus, the F a i r fax County master plan had to be rev ise d to accommodate R eston. The Reston Plan was prepared with several things in mind; the p r in c ip le of these were: 1 . The people come f i r s t . 2. Extensive open spaces required. 3. Walking to r e c r e a tio n a l areas required. 4. R e sid e n tia l d en sity le v e ls were s p e c ifie d as * - i 80 twelve per acre. The housing mix a rriv e d a t was 15 percent h ig h r is e , 15 p ercen t detached s in g le -fa m ily resid e n ce s, 70 percent 79I b i d . , p. 152 8Ql b i d . , p. 154. 161 townhouses and garden apartments. Reston was also planned to have a mixture of re s id e n tia l, commercial, and in d u stria l act i v i t i e s . Although Reston was p riv a te ly financed, Mr. Simon believes that public assistance in new-town financing is absolutely necessary. Simon is optim istic about developing the required in d u s tria l base: I t is too soon for us to know whether we shall have an employment center to match Reston's resid e n tia l capacity. Beginning e ffo rts to communicate the concept of Reston to in d u stria l leaders and government o f fic ia ls augur well for the success of this part of the Reston Plan. Our location is an asset; Reston is eighteen miles from Washington, D.C. and lie s between i t and the new Dulles International Airport. Our aim is to a t tr a c t research and development plants , lig h t industry and government agencies to Reston through i t s various advan tages as a re sid e n tia l community. Employers are in crea singly conscious of the value of offering s t a f f a good place to l i v e . 81 Simon notes that new towns can f i l l a dual function: 1. They can meet the needs of expanding population. 2. They can provide a quality of lif e unlike any that has previously existed. United States - Other There is a considerable amount of in te re s t in New City development in the United States at this time. I t has been recognized, a l i t t l e ta rd ily perhaps, that a ll of the 162 major c i t i e s are overcrowded. F urther, i t appears very doubtful th a t continued expansion of suburbs can solve the problem. To th is end, Congress is ac tu a lly d ra ftin g b i l l s at th is time to speed the process of developing new c i t i e s . One b i l l in Congress would: o Provide the developer of a new c ity with Federal guarantees for loans of up to 50 m illio n d o lla r s , cover ing a broader range of expenses than the p resent law. o Allow the Secretary of Housing and Urban Develop ment to use the power of eminent domain to help assemble the thousands of acres needed as the nucleus of a w ell- planned c i t y . 82 This is a p riv a te e n te rp ris e scheme; the developers would hold the i n i t i a t i v e . The money would be obtained by guaranteed loans. Design Methods According to a survey made by Thomas A. Dames and 8 3 William L. Grecco, the following g e n e ra liz atio n s apply to the average new town in the United S t a t e s . o I t must be a humanistic town, o I t must show a p r o f i t . o I t is b u i l t for the middle to upper middle c l a s s e s . ^^U.S. News and World Report, Vol. LXIV, No. 29, July 7, 1968, p. 64-65. O 7 Thomas A. Dames and William L. Grecco, "A Survey of New Town Planning C onsiderations," T ra ffic Q u a rte rly , Vol. 15, No. 12, December 1967, p. 555“ The survey purpor- ted to cover between 28% and 37$ of American new towns. 163 Several in te re stin g items emerged. For example, the d istrib u tio n of new towns versus distance is given in Table 2. TABLE 284 DISTANCE DISTRIBUTION OF U.S. NEW TOW NS FROM ESTABLISHED CITIES Less than 5 miles 15 percent Between 5 and 20 miles 63 percent Between 20 and 50 miles 19 percent Between 50 and 100 miles 3 percent Over 100 miles 0 percent Clearly, most of the above new towns are more akin to suburbs. A second in te re stin g thing revealed by the survey is the type of professionals used in the city design. Table 3 gives the percentages of New Towns responding p o sitiv ely 8 5 to the use of each professional type. Proposed Cities There are frequent examples in the popular press of proposed new c i t i e s . Most of the schemes discussed appear to be quite mad. As an example, an a r tic le in U.S. News and World Report describes a proposal to build a city of 84I b i d . , p. 564. 85I b i d . , p. 592. TABLE 3 USE OF PROFESSIONALS IN NEW TOW N DESIGN Urban Planners 96 percent Civil Engineers 93 percent Architects 89 percent Economists 63 percent Sociologists 15 percent Managers 22 percent P o liti c a l S c ie n tists 7 percent Landscape A rchitects 67 percent Surveyors 67 percent Transportation Engineers 15 percent Financial Analysts 59 percent Educators 18 percent 165 500,000 people in a Hackensack, New Je rse y , swamp.8^ This M plan"(?) is being pushed by the s t a t e of New Je rse y , which owns 18,000 acres of bogs. They apparently want the Federal government to spend $300 m illion on dredging and reclaiming the swamp. The land has not been developed to date for three primary reasons: o The la n d 's low elev a tio n makes i t su scep tib le to t i d a l flooding. Much is permanently under water. The Meadows lack n a tu ra l drainage and the spongy s o il cannot support permanent buildings without co stly foundations, f i l l , and flood p ro te c tio n . o A maze of overlapping p o l i t i c a l u n its has so fa r blocked regional planning and development. The marshes extend across 14 m u n ic ip a litie s in two c o u n tie s . There are 14 zoning boards and scores of sp e cia l agen cies and a u th o ritie s th a t claim j u r i s d i c t i o n . In the p a s t, powerful lo cal p o l i t i c a l forces s c u ttle d broad- scale plans to put the area to use. o Uncertainty has surrounded ownership of much of the acreage, and th is was not c l a r i f i e d u n t i l the 1967 court decision, which gave the State t i t l e to lands th a t are now, or ever were in the p a s t, covered by water a t high tide.®? The planners of th is ecological in sa n ity are appar en tly se rio u s; enabling le g i s l a t i o n has been drawn up at the s t a t e le v e l. The s ta te has h ired Dutch engineers to proceed with the design. A second p r o je c t, and i t is equally insane, c a lls O Q for a c i ty of 250,000 people in the middle of Arizona. 86U.S. News and World R eport, Vol. LXV, No. 29, June 24, 1969, p. 6*81 87Ibid. 88U.S. News and World Report, Vol. LXIV, No. 27, June 23, 1968, p. 96". 166 This projected debacle in the desert would include such features as: 1. An ultramodern c ity of 250,000 with the la t e s t techniques in housing, tran sp o rtatio n , education, and business, 2. A v ariety of recreation areas, including ski re s o rts , to u r is t ranches, and Indian villages and arche ological ruins. 3. A network of new roads and airports that would convert one of the most inaccessible areas of the U.S. into a center of commerce and tourism. 4. A gricultural projects to make more abundant use 89 of land that is now mainly devoted to sparse grazing. The scheme was developed by the Westinghouse Corpor ation for the Four Corners Commission. I t is supposed to provide a new way of l i f e for the Indians. Perhaps the most relevant comment of any of the Indians involved was th at made by Mr. Nakai, Chairman of the Navajo Tribal Council, who said, '‘There w ill be no Man hattan Island swindles pulled on u s ." 99 One finds such an a ttitu d e refreshing, even i f sanguine and a t r i f l e naive. S 9 Tu - j Ibid. 9QI b i d . , p. 99. 167 American Design Summary A considerable number of other American new towns claim to have used planners, economists, so c io lo g ists, etc. However, in lig h t of the Columbia and Reston design e x p e ri ence, i t is doubtful i f they did much of the actual planning or design. Referring back to the Columbia design process, the bulk of the economist involvement, aside from the "econ omic model" (which appeared to be a source of continual con fusion and f r u s t r a tio n to the re s t of the design team), appeared to be th at of devoting most of the time to answer ing two questions about the in v e sto rs' p r o f i t s , namely, "when" and "how much." (It appears th at answers had b e t te r be " fa s t" and "a l o t ." ) Referring again to Columbia, the land developers, mortgage bankers, fin a n c ie rs, real e s ta te people and the marketing p rofessionals had a c lea r-cu t role which was much lik e , except for siz e , a thousand housing t r a c t s . The other p ro fe ssio n a ls' p rin c ip a l contribution appears to have been p a r tic ip a tio n in an extended (six-month) "brainstorming session" (whose r e s u l t s , as previously noted, could not be documented). Tor the r e s t , i t was in tu i tio n and colored maps that designed Columbia. B ritis h New Towns There has been a considerable amount of work in Great B rita in on the "New Towns" e f f o r t . This e f f o r t has 168 involved the location and design of 21 new towns to accommo- 91 date almost 700,000 people. The work f i r s t got underway q 2 with the "New Towns Act of 1946." Subsequently, the work progressed under Town and County Planning Acts of 19S4 and 1963. The planning and design approach has been f a irly complete-- i f conventional. F ir s t, a s ite is selected; b asica lly , i t has to f u l f i l l three conditions: 1. A p le n tifu l water supply. 2. Good drainage. 9 3 3. Good communications (p a rticu larly by road). Next, a master plan for the in te r i o r area is p r e pared. The master plan includes separate subplans defining the planned demographic c h a ra c te ristic s of the towns, the in d u stria l requirements, commercial requirements, recrea tio n a l, adm inistrative-educational and housing requirements. Much of the success of the New Town e ffo rt is due to the effo rts directed toward planning for and a ttra c tin g new industry--many times, very favorable rents. Ultimately, the New Towns are expected to involve public expenditures of 91 The New Towns, prepared by the Ministry of Housing and Local Government, 1965. 92 The New Towns of Great B r ita in , prepared by The Reference Division, Central Office of Information, Ministry of Housing and Government, June 1964, p. 3. ^ I b i d . , p. 6. 169 about $850,000,000. The B ritis h people, however, have long 94 and lingering doubts about urban l i f e . In summary, the following statements can be made about B ritish New Towns: 1. The design has unquestionably been influenced by Ebenezer Howard's Garden C itie s. 2. The New Towns were b u i l t by public corporations with extensive government subsidies. 3. Conservative B ritish a ttitu d e s toward the home have led to some rath e r r e p e titiv e and d ull developments in New Town housing. Soviet City Design There has been a considerable amount of new town, actu ally city , design and construction in the Soviet Union 95 over the l a s t 40 years. Some 800 new towns have been, purportedly, b u i l t , varying in size from a few thousand Q fi people up to 480,000. The primary c r i t e r i a appear to be economic; sp e c ific problems noted are: 94 John Madge, "The New Towns Program in B r ita in ," Journal of the American I n s t i t u t e of Planners, Vol. 33, No. 6 , JunfT, 1968. 95 N. V. Baranov, Building New Towns, Background Paper No. 11, United Nations Symposium on' Planning and Development of New Towns, Moscow, 24 August-7 September 1964, p. 209. 96I b i d . , p. 213. 170 o Cost m inim ization (in b u ild in g ) o Return (economic) o I n d u s t r i a l i z a t i o n o Resource development ( p a r t i c u l a r l y m ineral) o Employment. The design methodology a lle g e d ly s t r e s s e s s o c ia l requirem ents. The p ro c e s s , as d escrib ed by Mr. Baranov, is as follow s: 1. A reg io n a l p la n s e l e c t s optim al i n d u s t r i a l s i t e s . This is u su a lly done in l ig h t of reso u rce lo c a ti o n , a v a ila b le power, and tr a n s p o r ta tio n . 2. The i n d u s t r i a l lo c a tio n s e s s e n t i a l l y s i t e the new c i ty and determine i t s main c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s . 3. An i n d u s t r i a l park contains a l l o f th e in d u s try . 4. The r e s i d e n t i a l area is lo c a te d such th a t i t w ill be w ith in 30 minutes or le ss by the planned tra n s p o r t system. 5. R e s id e n tia l areas are designed to : a. Be f a i r l y close to tr a n s p o r t. b. Provide i n s t i t u t i o n s used d a ily by the pub l i c (crech es, k in d e rg a rte n s , sc h o o ls, shops, r e s t a u r a n t s ) . c. Provide i n s t i t u t i o n s th a t are used i n t e r m i t t e n t l y (cinemas, a re n a s). The d e s c r ip tio n sounds lik e a Doxiados n e ig h b o r hood; a l l of the above (a, b, and c) are to be w ith in 300 to 400 m e te rs . 6 . A dm inistrative area. Contains a l l in s t itu ti o n s of use to e n tir e population of the c ity . Emphasis throughout is on e ffic ie n c y , economic Cat le a s t cost) a n a ly sis , adequate engineering, and carefu l planning. Poland A f a i r l y well organized, i f somewhat lim ite d , urban planning and design approach has been p ra ctic e d in Poland since World War I I . The approach is expressed in City and 97 Regional Planning in Poland. The approaches emphasize three fa c to rs: 1. The regions around a c ity must be involved in the design. 2. T ra ffic networks. 3. U t i l i t i e s deliv ery systems. The f i r s t approach lo cates the c ity ; the second two 98 shape i t . They d iscu ss, im p lic itly at le a s t, costs and b e n e fits . (They use the terms "favorable and "Unfavorable" Q Q r e s u l t s .) 9 7 Jack B. F ish er, City and Regional Planning in Poland (Ith a ca , New York: Cornell U niversity P ress, 1966), Chapter I I , "Urban Planning: Methods and R e su lts," by Boleslaw M olisz. 172 Design standards are in use; they appear to be lim ited to square fe e t per person, land use r a t i o s , economic in d ic e s, e tc . The standards are f a i r l y d e ta ile d 100 and i n tended fo r "new c i t i e s " . 101 They are intended exclusively for the development of vacant land. The standards cover such topics as: o Housing areas and the r a tio of sin g le -m u ltip le d w ellin g s. 0 Schools. 0 C ultural i n s t i t u t i o n s . 0 Art i n s t i t u t i o n s . 0 Health care se rv ic e s. 0 A d m in istratio n . o Social se rv ic e s. o Commercial. 0 R e sta u ra n ts. o H a n d ic ra fts. 0 Local ind u stry . 0 S tre e ts and sq u a re s. 0 P arking. o Green areas. 0 U t i l i t i e s . 100 I b i d ., p. 227. 101 Ib id . 173 A f a i r l y wide v a r ie ty of items are s p e c if ie d q u a n t i - t a t i v e l y - - e . g . , number of square f e e t of schools and school space per stu d e n t (in clu d in g s i t e s iz e and b u ild in g s i z e ) , acres of green areas p e r c a p ita , e t c . A f a i r l y wide range of s e rv ic e s w ith in housing areas is re q u ire d ; th e se in c lu d e: o N u rs e r ie s . o K in d e rg a rte n s. o Primary sch o o ls, o Shops for d a ily needs, o H an d icraft shops, o R e sta u ra n ts, o C entral h e a tin g p la n t, o Common g a rd e n s. N u rs e rie s, k in d e rg a rte n s , and prim ary school siz e s and s e a tin g are s p e c if ie d on the b a s is of the number of c h ild re n in the age groups of 0-3 y e a rs , 3-6 y e a rs , and 12-16 y e a rs . They also use a tw o-stage p lanning p ro c e s s , a s h o rt- range plan corresponding to the n a tio n a l economic planning cycle and a long-range plan fo r the c i ty in q u e s tio n . 1 0 ? The United Nations Approach The o r ig in a l goals of the New Town e f f o r t were to : 102 Report of the United Nations Symposium on P la n ning and Development of New Towns, Moscow, 24 August to 7 September 1964, UN P u b lic a tio n Sales N o .:6 6 .IV .3 . 174 1. Reduce growth of nearby large m etropolitan a r e a s . 2. Reduce congestion in the same areas. 3. Encourage economic growth. 4. Furnish urban areas for those displaced from farm ing. 5. Develop (in some cases) space-bound resources. Some of the conditions for the lo c atio n of a new town a r e : 1. Favorable micro clim ate. 2. Good d rain a g e. 3. S uitable s u b so il. 4. Reasonable topography. The need for some type of standard is recognized, 103 although never re a lly made e x p l ic i t. The symposium favored a neighborhood approach (any where from three to twenty thousand) and emphasized the n e c e ssity fo r an in d u s t r ia l base, an ad m in istrativ e cen ter, adequate re c re a tio n a l a re a s, and public tra n s p o rta tio n . No re a l design methodology is s e t fo rth . The only thing th a t passes as a d e sc rip tio n of a design process is th a t care is taken to lo c a te in d u s tr ia l s i t e s , r e s id e n tia l s i t e s are to be located nearby and c o n sist of a r e p e titio n of u n its , and th a t there should be good tra n s p o rta tio n 1Q5I b i d . , p. 40. 175 p la n n in g . Where p o s s i b le , v e h ic le s and p e d e s tr ia n s should be s e p a ra te d . Emphasis should be p laced on p u b lic t r a n s i t . S everal paragraphs'*- are given over to emphasizing the n e c e s s ity of c o n sid erin g s o c ia l problem s. A p re fe re n c e fo r "mixed c la s s " neighborhoods is in d ic a te d . In summary, what design methodology is put f o r th in the a r t i c l e appears to be a c o l le c tio n o f p la t i t u d e s to which a l l would su b sc rib e bu t none r e a l l y follow . B r a s i l i a B ra z il has c o n s tru c te d one of the la r g e s t c i t i e s yet b u i l t . An e x ten siv e l i t e r a t u r e search has f a i l e d to rev eal any m a te r ia l on the design methodology used. However, two items have been lo c a te d which throw some l ig h t on the ap p ro ach . The f i r s t is a quote (from a very la u d ato ry a r t i c l e ) about the a r c h i t e c t - d e s i g n e r , Oscar Niemeyer. To quote d i r e c t l y : Niemeyer, a man who has never had any n o tio n of the value o f money, co n sid ers i t the sim p le st th in g in the world to te a r down Avails, e r e c t u n d u latin g ramps, squander g la ss or m irro rs . 105 The o th e r p iece o f evidence disco v ered is a g en eral p la n fo r B r a s i l i a . The p la n is reproduced in Figure 12. 104I b i d . , p. 41 ■*^5B etty Robinson, "An Adventure in A r c h ite c tu r e ," M otive, January 1960, p. 19. Figure 12. Plan of B r a s ilia 176 177 A few moments s c ru tin y of the plan and se v eral more moments try in g to en v isio n some r a tio n a l design process which could lead to such a r e s u l t should convince the most sanguine in d iv id u a l th a t th e re was no_ r a tio n a l p l a n . Guayana Another c i t y which was b u i l t a f t e r extensive p la n ning is Guayana in the Orinoco v a lle y of Southeast Venezuela. The region has most o f the a t t r i b u t e s of an e x c e l le n t c i ty s i t e . There is more than adequate power (hydro e l e c t r i c ) and a generous supply of m in e ra ls, including iron o re , n a tu r a l gas, o i l , magnesium, gold, b a u x ite , and d i a monds ( i n d u s t r i a l ) . in/: The planning process included a considerable 10 7 number of s tu d ie s ; these are summarized below. Number of Studies P o p u latio n , employment and income IT In d u stry and promotion 13 N atural resources development 11 T ra n sp o rtatio n 9 General development 8 Investment req u irem en ts, p u b lic 7 and p riv a te Housing 6 A g ric u ltu re and f o r e s tr y 5 Educational and manpower requirem ents 4 Household consumption 4 Lloyd Rodwin, Ed., Planning Urban Growth and Regional Development: The Experience_of the Guayana Program of Venezuela (Cambridge, Mass.iMIT P re ss, 1969), p . 22. 107I b i d . , p. 317. 178 Attempts were made to develop a comprehensive p lan and a g en eral land use p la n . Events moved too s w if tly to 108 ever allow any r e a l use of th ese methods; people moved in too ra p id ly . As a r e s u l t o f the Guayana ex p erien ce, the author and most of the involved p lan n ers agreed th a t an increm ental or adaptive planning approach is more d e s ira b le than the r i g i d m aster p la n . The economic planning of Guayana involved the use of a com puter-based re g io n a l model. The model a c tu a lly used 10 9 was a L e o n tie f in p u t-o u tp u t model w ith some m o d ific a tio n . The scheme a c tu a lly used is summarized in Table 4. The years 1965-1985 were covered. The development was to be c a rrie d out by a c o rp o ra tio n , the C orporation Venezolana de Guayma, which was e s t a b lis h e d in 1960. The co rp o ratio n was to perform c e r ta in 110 s p e c if ic ta sk s: 1. Perform a Resource Study of the Guayma reg io n . 2. Study the h y d r o e le c tr ic p o t e n t i a l of the Caroni River. The Caroni r i v e r drops 800 f e e t in 60 miles and, 108I b i d . , p. 428. 109 William Morsch, "The Computer Based Economic Planning System," Planning Urban Growth and Regional Development, Lloyd Radwin, e d i t o r , p. 319. Anthony H. Penfold, "Cuidad Guayama, Planning a New C ity ," Planning Urban Growth and Regional Development, Lloyd Radwin,- e d i t o r , p. 230. Table 4. L eontief Input-Output Model for Guayana Product and Service Accounts F inancial Accounts Requirements A v a ila b ilitie s Interm ediate inputs Production Final demands Imports Household consumption from Venezuela Investment from abroad Government Transfers Inventory change Exports to Venezuela foreign Sources of Funds Uses of Funds Value of production Interm ediate purchases Wages and s a la r ie s D irect taxes In d ire c t taxes I n te r e s t Rents and concession payments Imports Dividends Amortization Physical investment Additions to in v e n to ries Increases in reserves 180 because of i t s r a te of flow, rep resen ts one of the la rg e s t h y d ro e le c tric p o te n tia ls in the world (10.5 m egakilow atts). 3. Plan the regional development and in te g ra te i t with the n a tio n 's four-year plan . 4. Promote p riv a te and public se cto r in d u s tr ia l development. 5. Coordinate a c t i v i t i e s of a l l government agencies in the s o c ia l and economic f ie ld s , 6 . Undertake o ther sp e c ia l ta sk s. For the f i r s t sev eral years of e x iste n c e , the Guayana Corporation d ire c te d most of the a c t i v i t i e s into se v e ra l areas; they were: 1. Planning the physical development of the area. 2. Planning the economic development. 3. Planning the development of human reso u rces. 4. F urther development of h y d ro e le c tric c a p a b i l i t i e s . 5. Development of a reg io n al Orinoco S tee l Plan. 6 . Promotion and development of in d u stry . 7. Development of Urban F a c ility . 8. Development of lo c a l a g ric u ltu re . The area which was stu d ied for the lo c a tio n of Ciu dad Guayana is about 60,000 acres in ex te n t, near the Caroni River. The s i t e is only 300 fe e t above sea le v e l. The developers of Cuidad Guayana were faced with some ra th e r unique problems. Due to the in d u s tr ia l 181 development, th e re was alre a d y a p o p u la tio n at the s i t e . (The p o p u la tio n had gone from 4,000 in 1950 to 50,000 in 111 I960.) The housing, s a n ita r y f a c i l i t i e s , t r a n s p o r ta tio n , e t c . , were t o t a l l y in ad eq u ate. To meet the s i t u a t i o n , the C orporation Guayana decided to: 1. E s ta b lis h a D ivision of Planning and Research (economic development, p h y s ic a l p la n n in g , human re s o u rc e s ). 2 . Plan fo r the o rd e rly development of a new i n d u s t r i a l c i t y . 3. E s ta b lis h a D ivision o f Urban Development. 4. Sign a th r e e -y e a r c o n tra c t w ith the J o in t Center fo r Urban S tudies a t MIT to do re se a rc h and give advice. 5. Buy most of the vacant land west of the Caroni River f o r a d ista n c e of about 18 m ile s. D e ta ile d economic s tu d ie s were made, p a r t i c u l a r l y o f the in d u s t r ie s planned f o r , tr a n s p o r ta tio n and communi c a tio n , p u b lic s e rv ic e req u irem en ts, c o n s tru c tio n , e t c . The s tu d ie s covered the time p e rio d of 1961 to 1975. The expected p o p u la tio n s were as given in Table 5. S p e c ific goals were la i d out in the course o f the p lanning p ro c e s s. The most gen eral were: 1. Adequate housing. 2. Adequate p u b lic f a c i l i t i e s and s e rv ic e s . 3. Plan fo r a l l income groups. 1 U I b i d . , p. 234. 182 4. Plan fo r a l l r a c ia l groups. 5. Plan for a q u a lity environment (educational, s o c ia l, c u ltu r a l, p h y s ic a l). 6. A ttra c t p riv a te e n te rp ris e . 7. Plan in a f le x ib le enough fashion to meet change. TABLE 5 EXPECTED POPULATION OF CUIDAD GUAYANA112 Year Population 1961 42,000 1965 72,000 1970 205,000 1975 350,000 1980 656,000 The major ste p s in the design process were: 1. Location of heavy in d u stry . This was done on the b asis of economics and land a v a i l a b i l i t y . P o llu tio n e f f e c t s , in terms of wind d ir e c tio n , were considered. 2. Location, and d is t r ib u t io n , of r e s id e n tia l popu la tio n . A p o te n tia l model was t r i e d . Inputs included p r e dicted popu latio n , i n d u s t r i a l , commercial and ad m in istrativ e lo c a tio n s. The c ity cen ter lo c atio n was used as a param eter. 112I b i d . , p . 236 183 Several lo c a tio n s were t r i e d . This model was programmed 113 and run on a d i g i t a l computer. 3. General c ity form (and c i ty c e n te r lo c a tio n ). The f i r s t approach was v ia "sketch s tu d ie s " done before i n d u s t r i a l and r e s i d e n t i a l lo c a tio n . L ater ( a f t e r t h e in d u s t r i a l and r e s i d e n t i a l s t u d i e s ) , the sketch s tu d ie s had to be re v ise d . The c ity c e n te r was lo c a te d in such a fashion th a t i t would be c e n tr a l in l i g h t of fu tu re developments, r a th e r than fo r the 1961 p o p u la tio n . 4. T ran sp o rtatio n system. Again a g ra v ity model was u t i l i z e d . (No a c tu a l d ata was a v a ila b le on L atin Ameri can urban tr a p s .) L ate r, an a c tu a l model of the tr a n s p o r ta tio n system was developed. Again, th is was run on a d i g i t a l computer. The e n t ir e process (steps 1 through 4) were i t e r a t e d a second time (each in l i g h t of subsequent d e s ig n s ) . In a d d itio n to the formal planning and design p ro ce ss, considerable e f f o r t was expended on devising a development s tr a te g y fo r Cuidad Guayana. Cuidad Guayana appears to be one of the b est-p lan n ed c i t i e s from a l l view points, e . g . , economic, p h y s ic a l, t r a n s p o r ta ti o n , s o c ia l, e tc . The methodology is also d i s t i n c t l y s u p e rio r. 115I b i d . , p. 239. 184 Systems Approach One of the more d e ta ile d -- a n d t e c h n i c a l - -attem p ts to lay out a m ethodical c i t y design was th a t undertaken by the 114 UCLA School of E ngineering. The r e s u l t i n g re p o rts divide the b a s ic problem o f c i t y design up in to s ix s te p s ; they a r e : 1 . P rim itiv e needs. 2 . F e a s i b i l i t y study. 3. P ro je c t s e le c tio n d e c is io n . 4. P relim inary design. 5. Archetype s e le c tio n . 6 . D etailed d esig n s. While the re p o rt c o l l e c t s , organizes and d isc u sse s a g re a t deal o f s o c i a l , economic, demographic, and p h y sic a l d ata and d isc u sse s many of the value problem s, no r e a l a t t e n t i o n is given to the problem of how the a c tu a l design d e c isio n s are to be made, how a c t i v i t i e s are to be e v a lu a te d , or how co sts are to be minimized and b e n e fits maximized. Another p a r t i a l l y te c h n ic a l approach appears in an A rthur D. L i t t l e r e p o r t 1^5 r e s u lt in g from a s tr a te g y se ssio n held December 12-13, 1967, in connection w ith Model C i tie s . T heir approach is to focus on p a r t i c u l a r problem s, e . g . , 114 UCLA Engineering Executive Program Report 69-145, U n iv e rsity of C a lif o rn ia , Los A ngeles, June 1969 115S tra te g ie s fo r Shaping Model C i t i e s . A rthur D. L i t t l e Co. , 1967. 185 events, opportunity, population, resources, e tc . There is some attempt to look at b e n e fits to resid e n ts but l i t t l e e f f o r t to r e la te them to co sts. Some of the tools and approaches used are: 1. System block diagram. 2. Flow or PERT c h a rts. 3. Economic a n a ly sis , p a r tic u la r ly needs a n a ly sis, economic '’w orthw hileness,'’ job opportunity models. 4. Demographic data. 5. Housing needs. 6 . Social c o n sid e ratio n s, including in te g ra tio n (school, housing, jo b ), i n s t i t u t i o n a l p a r tic ip a tio n (govern m ental), so c ia l acceptance (clubs, lodges), informal acceptance. 7. Educational opportunity a n a ly sis . 8. Governmental forms. 9. Physical design. 10. Social m obility. 11. Light and heavy industry requirem ents. 12. Environmental co n sid eratio n s. This is a f a i r l y complete design methodology. I t has several weaknesses: 1. I t was c a rrie d out ex clu siv ely by engineers; no so c ia l s c i e n t i s t s p a r tic ip a te d . 2. There is no re a l economic base la id out fo r ra tio n a l decision-making. 186 3. Due to 1), a number of novel and e x tra o rd in a ry s o c ia l and economic concepts appear; most are of very doubt fu l v a l id ity . A second systems approach to urban design is th a t discussed in J. Brian McLoughlin's book on urban and re g io n a l , . 116 ' p la n n in g . The book s t a r t s with a rough d e s c rip tio n of man's ecological s e t t i n g . The idea th a t man is p a r t of the p la n e ta ry ecology is stro n g ly s tr e s s e d . The ill u s io n a r y n atu re of man's a b i l i t y to co n tro l h is environment is c le a r ly s ta te d . To quote: The idea th a t a more and more urbanized and a r t i f i c i a l human environment is less and le ss exposed to these repercussions is dangerously f a l s e . 117 The s t a b i l i t y of eco lo g ical systems is d escrib ed and the ex isten ce o f climax ec o lo g ie s, i . e . , s te a d y - s ta te solu- * j 118 t i o n s , is noted. F in a lly , the complete dominance of man is s tr e s s e d . Man t o t a l l y and com pletely dominates any sp ecies on e a rth and is the la r g e s t d istu rb in g force in the p la n e ta ry ecology. Although never s ta te d e x p l i c i t y , the te x t makes 11^J. Brian McLoughlin, Urban and Regional P lan n in g , A Systems Approach (New York-Washington: F red erick Froeger, 1969) . 117I b i d . , p. 23 118I b i d . , p. 29. 187 119 c l e a r th e need f o r some type of e c o lo g ic a l s ta n d a r d s . The need f o r l i f e q u a l i t y s ta n d a rd s is also i m p l i c i t . The 120 con n ectio n between c o n s t r a i n t s and c o st is made c l e a r . McLoughlin a ls o reco g n izes lo c a ti o n th e o ry as one of 121 the b ases f o r urban p la n n in g . The impact of systems a n a ly s is and c y b e rn e tic s is also n o te d , although only h a l f u n d ersto o d by th e a u th o r. The a u th o r a lso recommends the use o f in fo rm a tio n th e o ry , s im u la tio n , m odeling, f o r e c a s t i n g , in fo rm a tio n system s, and, 12 2 f i n a l l y , a c o s t - b e n e f i t approach. Although much o f the McLoughlin book is n o t too w ell org an iz ed and d e a ls w ith m a tte rs t h a t the a u th o r d o e s n 't un d ersta n d i t is a ste p in the r i g h t d i r e c t i o n . I t w i l l , i t is hoped (but n o t r e a l l y a n t i c i p a t e d ) , b rin g c e r t a i n of the to o ls o f economics and systems a n a ly s is to the a t t e n t i o n of urban d e s ig n e rs and p la n n e rs . Summary Some of th e g e n e ra l approaches to c i t y desig n w i l l be summarized in Table 6 . The ta b le w i l l in c lu d e the r e l e vant group o r tim e p e r io d , th e s ta n d a rd s u sed , th e design methods p roposed, and a column c o n ta in in g some comments. 119I b i d . , p. 23-28. 120I b i d . , p. 43-46. 121I b i d . , p. 58-70 122I b i d . , p. 265. TABLE 6 Group Ancient (Rome) London Washington, B.C. Garden C itie s (Letchworth, Welwyn) Radbum, N.J. APPROACHES TO CITY DESIGN Standards M ilita ry defense, c e r ta in am enities (baths, arenas) Grandeur, appearance, v is ta s Des igner C. Wren Design Methods Copying Influences City of Rome and the leg io n n aires camps Previous shape of London Comments Extremely in f l u e n t i a l in Europe Grandeur, appearance L1 Enfant (in p a rt) Topological surveys Real e s ta te co n sid era tions L 1 E n fan t' s plans were only p a r tly followed Green space per c a p ita housing, com m ercial, i n d u s tr ia l requirements Housing, green space, complete se p a ratio n of p ed e strian s E. Howard, Unwin H. Wright, C. Stein Land use s t u d i e s , economic an aly sis (build in g , operating) Economic Edward B el lamy's book "Looking Backward" Garden C itie s , s tu d ie s , land Motor Magazine use s tu d ie s , tra n s p o rta tio n stu d ie s P a rtly in re a c tio n to poor condi tio n s in London TABLE 6 - -con tin ued Design Standards Designer Methods Le Corbusier A rc h ite c tu ra l approach, geometric symmetry Group V ille Radi- euse e t al Broad Acres S o c ia lis t Urban New City Planners Modern American Planners Some environ mental s t a n dards ( lig h t, h ea t, a i r , appliances) One acre of farm land per person, open space F airly e x ten siv e . Per c a p ita square f e e t of housing, commercial, r e c r e a tio n a l, and in d u s tr ia l areas s p e c ifie d p h y sical s ta n dards Land use con s t r a i n t s , open spaces, p h y si cal standards F.L. Wright A rc h ite c tu ra l approach A rc h ite ctu re- o rie n te d , use of maps and graphics Influences S kyscraper, modern b u s i n ess, high speed t r a n s p o rta tio n Rural v alu es, J e ffe rso n ia n democracy, autom obile, e l e c t r i c i t y , telephone Zoning variances Emphasis on Marxist c o s ts, p a r t i - economics c u la rly t r a n s p o rta tio n and u t i l i t y c o s ts, some economic 5 demographic stu d ies Comments To many, an area l view seems important TABLE 6 Group B ritis h New Towns Sys terns - o rie n te d planners Standards Land use s t a n dards, physical s ta n d a rd s , open space requirem ents, school s ta n dards Ecological- environmental (implied) , l i f e q u a lity (im p lie d ), physical standards Designer McLaughlin e.g . continued Design Methods Economic s tu d ie s , demo graphic s t u d i e s , emphasis on economic b a s e , adequate water Location econo mics, systems a n a ly s is , lin e a r p ro gramming, cost b e n e f it, econ omic stu d ies Influences Comments This area is embryonic at th is time o 191 G enerally speaking, a n c ien t c i t i e s were lo c ate d and designed, at l e a s t o r i g i n a l l y , fo r defense. As Rome expanded and b u i l t in c re a sin g numbers of c i t i e s , two o th er in flu en c es began to be f e l t , the camp of the Roman Legion n a ire s and the d e sire to copy some of the fe a tu re s of the c ity of Rome. There was l i t t l e c ity b u ild in g in the Dark and Middle Ages; what th ere was was u su a lly r e s t r i c t e d to reb u ild in g burned-out areas or c o n stru c tin g palace c i t i e s , such as V e r s a ille s . The approach was u su a lly to emphasize grandeur and beauty, probably the former more than the l a t t e r . London and Washington, D.C., f a l l in to th is c a te g o ry . The 16th and 17th C enturies saw some i n t e l l e c t u a l s t i r r i n g in the area of new town design. Several were a c tu a lly b u i l t ( S a lta i r by S a lt, Robert Owen’s New Lanark), and some were designed on paper. To some, i . e . , S ir Buckingham, the problem was hygiene and c i ty design was hygienic design. One of the f i r s t breakthroughs came around the tu rn of the century with the p u b lic a tio n of Ebenezer Howard’s 113 Garden C itie s of Tomorrow. Howard considered am en ities, economics, tr a n s p o r ta tio n , a e s t h e t i c s , h e a lth , r e c r e a tio n , and what would now be c a lle d environmental problems. 113 Howard, Garden C itie s of Tomorrow • 192 Some of Howard's ideas were developed and u t i l i z e d to a lim ite d e x te n t in America (Radburn, S u n n y slo p e). One o f the b e t t e r e f f o r t s in re c e n t times has been the B r i t i s h New Towns program. A f u l l range of s o c ia l and economic fa c to rs were co n sid ered . Modern American c i t y plan n in g so f a r has been lim i t e d and of doubtful q u a l ity . There i s , however, some hope in the u t i l i z a t i o n of the system approach in c i t y p lan n in g . The use o f th is approach i s , i t should be no ted , la rg e ly s t i l l on pap er. CHAPTER V CITY DESIGN: THE RESULTS Introduction This chapter w ill b r i e f l y discuss some of the actual r e s u lts and experience a v a ila b le as the r e s u lt of b u ilding c i t i e s which have been designed. To th is end, towns and c i t i e s which have a c tu a lly been designed and b u i l t w ill be the p r in c ip a l su b je ct of th is chapter. Again, as in Chapter IV, the emphasis w ill be on the l a s t 50 to 100 y ea rs. The attem pt in th is chapter is to assess how well some of the c i t i e s designed over the l a s t sev eral decades have worked out. To do t h i s , some c r i t e r i a must be se t up. This is done in the next s e c tio n . Next, the l i t e r a t u r e covering the c i t i e s in question w ill be reviewed, and th e ir main featu res la id out and sum marized in Tables 7, 8, and 9. The f in a l se c tio n w ill attem pt to summarize the r e s u lts (Table 10) and draw some conclusions. C r ite r ia for City Success I t is necessary to develop some simple c r i t e r i a to judge the success or f a ilu r e of the re ce n tly designed c i t i e s 193 194 which are being used as examples. For a v a r ie ty o f reaso n s, the c r i t e r i a w ill have to be kept both sim ple and g e n e ra l. This is necessary because: 1. The c r i t e r i a them selves a re , or should be, the su b je c t of re se a rc h . 2. Adequate d ata on the v a r ia b le s re le v a n t to the c r i t e r i a must be a v a ila b le . Perhaps the most obvious of the c r i t e r i a are econo mic. The two economic c r i t e r i a are: 1. Was the c i t y p r o f i t a b l e to i t s b u ild e rs ? In the case of governm ent-subsidized e f f o r t s , which do n o t have to make a p r o f i t , the r e le v a n t c o n s id e ra tio n is more general and somewhat of the n a tu re of: Did the c i t y become o p e ra ti o n a l and y ie ld c o sts and b e n e f its comparable or b e t t e r than a l t e r n a t e courses o f actio n ? 2. Was the c i t y an econom ically s u c c e s s fu l e n t i t y fo r i t s re s id e n ts ? Another b a s ic c r i t e r i o n has to do w ith e s t h e t i c s : 3. Is the c i t y or town a p le a s a n t or p le a s in g place in which to liv e ? This i s , of co u rse, r a t h e r s u b je c tiv e . The only measures are the remarks of r e s id e n ts and t h e i r len g th of ten u re. A r e la te d c r i t e r i o n would address i t s e l f to the q u a lity o f the environm ent. 4. What is the com parative q u a l ity o f the e n v iro n ment provided? This w i l l in clu d e the q u a lity o f the a i r 195 and of w a te r. I t w i l l a lso be determ ined by open sp a c e s , g re e n s , commons, e t c . , a v a ila b le . A f i f t h c r i t e r i o n would r e l a t e to th e q u a l i t y of p u b lic s e r v ic e s . 5. What is th e q u a l ity o f p u b lic s e rv ic e s ? This would cover e d u c a tio n , tr a s h d is p o s a l, sewage tr e a tm e n t, a d m in is tr a tio n , t r a n s p o r t a t i o n , e t c . The r e l a t i v e c o st of th e se s e rv ic e s should a lso be measured. The q u a l i t y of p r i v a t e s e rv ic e s is also to be co n sid ere d . 6 . What is th e q u a l i t y o f p r i v a t e s e rv ic e s a v a i l able? This in c lu d es shopping c e n t e r s , neighborhood s t o r e s , e t c . A f i n a l c r i t e r i o n might d e a l, in a very g e n e ra l way, w ith s o c i a l problem s. There is r e a l l y no p r e c i s e way to s t a t e the problem ; however, an attem pt must be made. 7. Has the c i t y , on a r e l a t i v e b a s i s , done b e t t e r in th e areas o f a m e lio ra tin g c la s s problem s, r a c i a l problem s, age group c o n f l i c t s , crime and d e lin q u en c y , p ro v id in g w e l f a r e s e r v i c e s , e t c .? As p r e v io u s ly n o te d , th e se are very rough c r i t e r i a , b u t they are gauged a p p a re n tly to the le v e l th a t d a ta is a v a ila b le . I t i s only in a c i t y th a t is designed in d e t a i l t h a t c r i t e r i a such as those p u t f o r th in th e s e c tio n s on l i f e q u a l i t y sta n d a rd s or e c o lo g ic a l q u a l i t y sta n d a rd s can be r e le v a n t. 196 Letchworth The land, o rig in a lly 3,870 acres, was obtained for Letchworth in 1903, 35 miles north of King's Road (London) on the Hitchin-Cambridge Railway. (The cost in 1903 was $155,000, or $40 per acre.) L ater, the land area was i n creased to 4,574 acres. Letchworth was developed by a public company; shares were sold to the p u b lic. I t was l a t e r determined to be ra d ic a l l y u n d er-c a p ita liz e d , and developed very slowly. The c ity was fu lly surveyed and the main featu re s of the area were drawn up by Raymond Unwin and Barry Parker. Letchworth's land tenure was by lease at a fixed ground ren t. Leases were fo r 99 y ea rs, 198 y e a rs, or 999 y ea rs, with 99-year re v isio n s. Industry obtained 999-year le a se s. Land use is rig id ly co n tro lle d by the terms of the le a se . Plans and appearances of buildings were c o n tro lle d , as was ad v e rtisin g . O rig in ally , in d u strie s b u i l t th e ir own b u ild in g s; re c e n tly , there has been a trend toward building to re n t. F actories had to be well separated by green b e lts and fe n c ing. There had to be adequate parking and yards. The maxi mum siz e was fixed at 1000 to 1500 employees. Many of the in d u s trie s are "linked" to establishm ents 20 to 25 miles away. The commercial establishm ent was also b u i l t on leased land (99-year l e a s e s ) . There was i n i t i a l l y some 197 d i f f i c u l t y in g e ttin g adequate numbers and v a r i e t i e s o f shops. F in a lly , the company decided to b u ild and manage i t s own departm ent s t o r e . Open spaces fo r p lay in g f i e l d s and r e c r e a tio n abound. Letchworth has 1 3 1 / 2 acres p er 1 0 0 0 acres ( e x c l u siv e of s c h o o ls ). (On t h i s b a s i s , Los Angeles would have about 3 5 , 0 0 0 acres of p a rk s .) Housing d e n s ity is le s s than twelve p er a c re . Sales to ow ner-occupiers were e ig h t to fiv e p er r e s i d e n t i a l acre ( r e s i d e n t i a l acre equals acre minus s t r e e t s ) . The land use in Letchworth was as fo llo w s : TABLE 7 LAND USE IN LETCHWORTH Land Use Area in Acres Commercial 31 I n d u s t r i a l 1 3 2 R e s id e n tia l 7 0 8 P u b lic Open Space 1 0 6 Leased Open Space 1 6 2 A llotm ents 44 Small holdings 2 3 0 Large farms 2 , 5 8 7 G enerally, Letchworth has been an o v e r a ll su c cess. The r e s id e n ts u su a lly work in the a re a , le a se t h e i r own 198 s in g le - f a m ily home, use and enjoy the open space p ro v id ed . (Note t h a t open space i s g r e a t e r than the sum o f i n d u s t r i a l and commercial sp a c e .) The endeavor has been s u c c e s s fu l f i n a n c i a l l y ; debts have been p a id o f f in an u n in te r r u p te d fa s h io n , w ith i n t e r e s t . Welwyn Welwyn was s t a r t e d much l a t e r than L etchw orth, about twelve y e a rs , and was lo c a te d much c lo s e r to London. I t was s u c c e s s fu l much e a r l i e r than Letchw orth, p ro b ab ly due to i t s lo c a ti o n .* I t was le s s o f an independent c i t y and more of a "dorm itory" c i t y fo r London. Welwyn, l i k e L etchw orth, has been an o v e r a ll su c c ess. To quote L. Munford, "Both o f th ese communities, s t a r t i n g as p r iv a te e n t e r p r i s e s , w ith lim ite d p ro s p e c ts o f g a in , not m erely su rv iv e d i n d if f e r e n c e and o p p o s itio n , but have a f f e c t e d the p a t t e r n o f housing and c i t y b u ild in g from Scot- ? land to I n d ia ." In a s h o r t n o te ,^ Mr. S tern s looks back on Welwyn a f t e r a la p se o f 50 y e a rs . I t is now a town of about 40,000 to 50,000 p o p u la tio n , s t i l l good looking w ith b e a u t i f u l Madge, "The New Towns Program in B r i t a i n , " p. 215. 2 Munford, The C ity in H i s t o r y , p. 522. 3M. S te r n s , "Welwyn Garden C ity - 50 Years L a te r ," Town and Country P la n n in g , V o l.38, No.6 , May 1970, p. 245. 199 gardens and commons. Most re sid e n ts are very much s a t i s f i e d . The only complaint noted was th a t th e re were so many tree s th a t su n lig h t was cut out. In sev eral ways, Welwyn proved to be p ro p h etic; a community h ea lth system was e s ta b lish e d in 1922, e l e c t r i c cooking was b u i l t in , the town was c e n tr a lly heated, which in p a r t abates the smoke nuisance f a ir p o l l u t i o n ) . The c ity has paid i t s way, and, in f a c t , has been p r o f ita b le . I t should be noted, however, th a t i t was not and is not a low -cost p ro je c t. Letchworth and Welwyn The o r ig in a l garden c i t i e s , Letchworth and Welwyn, must be taken as su ccesses. There were s p e c ia l reasons for th is success. To quote Madge: " ...b e c a u s e there e x iste d a group of lib e r a l minded innovators who were id e o lo g ic a lly in tune with h is proposals."** The f in a n c ia l success took a considerable amount of time to m a te ria liz e , about 40 years. The success was more than fin a n c ia l. In the words of F. Osborne: For Letchworth was, and remains, a f a i t h f u l f u l fillm e n t of Howard's e s s e n tia l id e a s. I t has today a wide range of prosperous in d u s tr ie s , i t is a town of homes and gardens w ith ample open spaces and a s p i r i t e d community l i f e , v ir tu a l ly a l l of i t s people fin d th e ir employment lo c a lly , i t is g ird le d by an in v io la te a g r ic u ltu r a l b e l t , and the p rin c ip le s of **Madge, "The New Towns Program in B r i t a i n , " p . 208. 200 s in g le ownership* lim ite d p r o f i t , and the earm arking of any su rp lu s revenue fo r the b e n e f i t o f the town have been f u lly m a in ta in e d .5 Thus, Letchworth was a success in a v a r ie ty of ways, f i n a n c i a l l y , as a p le a s a n t p la c e to l i v e , en v iro n m e n tally , and s o c ia ll y . I t , of co u rse, in s p ire d o th e r attem pts on both sid e s to e s t a b l i s h v a rio u s types o f garden c i t i e s (the Green B elt c i t i e s , Radburn, Sunnyside). U nited S ta te s New Towns There have been a number of attem pts to design new towns in the U nited S t a t e s . Most follow ed, in one form or an o th e r, the garden c i t y id e a . The id e a behind them, the form at, and how some o f them have "worked out" w ill be b r i e f l y reviewed. Sunnyside (New York) This was b u i l t in th e p e rio d of 1924 to 1928.^ I t covered about 77 acres and was designed fo r about 5,000 people. A c o n sid erab le p erc e n ta g e o f the land was held in the form of commons. (Deed r e s t r i c t i o n s did p re se rv e the Commons. The author f e l t t h a t zoning would no t have done the jo b .) 5 Howard, Garden C itie s of Tomorrow, P reface by F. Osborne, p. 13. ^Clarence S. S te in , Toward New Towns in America (Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press'] 19 5 7) , p . 2 7 - 3 5 . 201 The r e s u l t s were p o s i t i v e ; g e n e r a lly , th e r e s id e n ts f e l t the experim ent to be a su c c e ss. The author n o tes t h a t , to su cceed , such a d ev e lo p ment must f u l f i l l s e v e ra l c o n d itio n s ; they a re : 1. The i n i t i a l land c o sts must be low. 2. T ra n s p o rta tio n must be a v a ila b le . 3. The town must be b u i l t q u ic k ly . 4. There must be a c o n s id e ra b le amount of s ta n d a r d iz a tio n . Sunnyside was not a c i t y - - i t was r e a l l y a d e v e lo p ment. I t is o f some i n t e r e s t as th e re was some thought given to the q u a l i t y of l i f e th a t the in h a b ita n ts would enjoy. I t was a p r o f i t a b l e e n t e r p r i s e . Radburn (New Je rse y ) Radburn was b u i l t in the 1927-1930 p e rio d . I t was n o t a c t u a l l y a garden c i t y . I t s p o p u la tio n was 25,000 on 7 two square m iles (1,200 a c r e s ) . I t s t r e s s e d s p e c ia liz e d roads - -n e a r ly complete p e d e s tr ia n - v e h i c le s e p a r a tio n . I t u t i l i z e d the superblock concept w ith en c lo se d th r e e - a c r e commons. I t s t r e s s e d s a fe ty and was e x c e l l e n t f o r b rin g in g up c h i ld r e n . Radburn o f f e r e d a hig h q u a l i t y of l i f e f o r the income le v e ls re q u ire d . S i g n i f i c a n t l y , many men and women 7I b i d . , p. 52. 202 who were ra is e d in Radburn are re tu rn in g to bring up t h e i r g own c h ild re n . Radburn a t l e a s t proved th a t i t was p o s s ib le to p la n and b u ild medium-income r e s i d e n t i a l areas or towns which fu rn ish ed a reasonably high q u a lity sta n d ard of liv i n g , was s ta b le and o rd erly and, f i n a l l y , was p r o f i t a b l e fo r the b u ild e r. Radburn was planned to re c o n c ile the automobile w ith a com fortable, gracious and sa fe community l i f e . Although surrounded by high speed a r t e r i a l highways, i t was almost g t o t a l l y in s u la te d from them. Radburn covered 1,258 acres about 17 m iles from New York City in Fairlawn Borough, New J e rs e y . I t was com posed of 30 to 50 acre superblocks, each of which had cen- 11 t r a l parks. The houses faced inward. Radburn was not r e a lly a garden c i t y - - t h e r e was no in d u stry or governmental fu n ctio n . I t proved to be a f in a n c ia l d is a s te r due to the depression. The Greenbelt Towns As p rev io u sly noted, the green b e l ts were a New Deal 8I b i d . , p. 60 • g Roy Lubove, Community Planning in the 1920*5 ( P i t t s burgh: U niversity of P ittsb u rg h Press , 1963V) p . 63. ^Ibi_d. , p . 62 . n ib id . 203 12 response to housing needs of the 1 930's. F i r s t , the b a s ic purposes o f the " b e lt" towns should be noted; they a r e : 13 1. A c q u is itio n of a la rg e t r a c t o f land to avoid the com plications o f d iv e rse ownership. 2. C reatio n o f a community p rim a rily fo r fam ilie s of modest income, p ro te c te d by an e n c ir c lin g g re e n b e lt. 3. Dwellings and t h e i r land re ta in e d in one owner sh ip - - p re fe ra b ly a lo c a l p u b lic agency--which would le ase dw ellings but n o t s e l l them. 4. Development under a m aster p ain fo r the e n t ir e area. 5. I n te g r a tio n of the economics of the r u r a l area and the urban community. The p la n n ers who a c tu a lly did the work in c re a se d these aims to in clu d e the f o llo w in g : 14 1. Minimal commuting, through nearby or s e l f - c o n ta in ed employment, r e c r e a tio n , and shopping. 2. C reation of a r e l a t i v e l y complete c iv ic e n t i t y r a t h e r than a suburb. 3. Use of the neighborhood superblock as a design ■^Albert Mayer, "Green B e lt Towns R e v is ite d ," The Jo u rn al of H ousing, No. 1, 1967, p. 12. 13I b i d . , p. 13. 14I b i d . 204 element and for the provision of in te rn a l sa fe ty from t r a f f i c . 4. Recognition of neighborhoods as a s o c ia l-p h y s i cal concept. B asically , the towns were b u ilt to create work and to try out, on an extensive sc a le , a new p a tte rn of land use and land ownership. Table 8 contains some b asic fa c ts on the "Green" towns. In re tro s p e c t, some other greenbelt considerations a r e : 15 1. Conceptions of land use and l i f e q u a lity . 2. T ra ffic sep aratio n and sa fe ty . 3. The Greenbelt conception of town liv in g and ru ra l advantages. 4. For fam ilies of modest income. 5. Housing le v e ls . 6 . Income le v e ls. 7. Problems encountered by lo c atio n near a m e tro p o lis. 8 . Industry and employment. 9. T ransportation 10. Tax base. 11. Land p ric e system. 15Ibid. TABLE 8 CHARACTERISTICS OF GREENBELT TOW NS Name G reenbelt, Maryland Greendale, Wisconsin G re e h h ills , Ohio Location 7-8 miles north of Washington, D.C. 3 miles southwest of Milwaukee 5 miles north of C incinnati Area 3370 Ac. Occupancy Population CDate) 12-14,000 (1965) Land O riginal Cost $327,000 $97/Acre Land 1980 (+) Cost 3400 Ac. 12,000 (1966) $830,000 $350/Acre 5900 Ac. 17,000 (1963) 206 12. Master plans, zoning. 13. Special s o c ia l-c iv ic q u a l itie s . 14. Influence f e l t of the Greenbelt towns. Some of the p rin c ip a l c h a ra c te ris tic s of the Green b e lt towns are summarized in Table 8 . Results Looking back a f te r 30 years, several things become evident. The more important re s u lts and conclusions are: 1. The c i tie s should have been developed f a s te r . 2. A much g reater attempt should have been made to educate people in and out of government. 3. The towns had stagnated, with p r a c t ic a lly no growth over a ll those undeveloped acres between 1937 and 1950. Nothing new had been b u i l t because there were no new federal development funds and no groups organized to obtain them. 4. The towns were doomed to succumb to the postwar impulse to get government out of everything. The determ ina tion arose to s e l l off the greentown houses, land, and pub l i c f a c i l i t i e s . ^ Res ton Reston is physically a very charming town, with green spaces, parks, lakes, golf courses, and a f a i r l y wide 16I b i d . , p. 20. 207 17 v a rie ty of housing s ty le s and lo t s iz e s . The c ity p r e sents a very agreeable, i f not plush, appearance. Reston, to date, has not f u l f i l l e d any of i t s prom is e s . The hoped-for in d u s tr ia l development has not yet hap- 18 pened. Reston had o r ig in a lly set aside 1,000 acres fo r 19 in d u s tria l development; 200 acres are now developed, p ro viding 1,800 jobs. Most of i t s resid e n ts must commute con sid erab le distances to work. Many resid e n ts and v i s i t o r s also fe e l th a t there is too much paternalism . Other c r itic is m maintains th a t Reston 2 0 is ju s t a s t y l is h country club. 21 Residents are becoming in c reasin g ly c r i t i c a l of what they fe e l is a change in the d ire c tio n of development under the Gulf Oil le ad ersh ip . They c i te less sponsorship of community a c t i v i t e s , co n stru ctio n of fewer-than-promised community f a c i l i t i e s , and so ft-p e d alin g of the o rig in a l i n te n t to make Reston an economically and e th n ic a lly balanced community. ^ D . Wedemeyer CA P S ta f f ) , "New Communities- -Solu tio n to the N atio n 's Urban Problems?" Los Angeles Times, Vol. LXXXIX, August 23, 1970. 18 E d ito r ia l Research Reports, European Experience with New Towns," November 1968, p. 806. 19 Michael E. Corbine, "New Towns," Manpower, July 1969, p. 20. 2^"The Long P erilous P ath ," Forbes, August 15, 1969, p . 42. 208 Reston began to have f in a n c ia l d i f f i c u l t i e s in 1965 2 2 w ith the advent of t i g h t money. At th is p o in t, Gulf O il came to the rescue and bought out Mr. Simon. By 1967, about 600 housing u n its had been so ld ; a f t e r Gulf O i l 's takeover and re o rg a n iz a tio n (in clu d in g f i r ing Mr. Simon, the o r ig in a l d e v e lo p e r), another 700 u n its were so ld . Gulf Oil had o r ig in a l ly put up $15,000,000 and, a f t e r ta k in g the p r o je c t over, has put up an a d d itio n a l $35,000,000. I t is s t i l l too e a rly to t e l l whether Reston w ill be a s u c c e s s fu l f in a n c ia l v en tu re . The main hope l i e s in the a n tic ip a te d in c re ase in the value o f the undeveloped land as the p r o je c t develops. Columbia 13 In an a r t i c l e by Lowell E. Sunderland, Columbia is reviewed in a fav o rab le l i g h t . The author notes t h a t , although only th re e years o ld (the plan c a l l s fo r a 15-year development p e r io d ) , the p r o je c t is w ell underway. Mr. Sun derland notes the v i l l a g e layout fa v o ra b ly , p r a is e s the small lo c a l s e rv ic e c e n te rs and the underground u t i l i t i e s . 2 3 Lowell E. Sunderland, "Columbia - New C ity ," Town and Country P lanning, Vol. 38, No. 7, July/A ugust 1970* p. 32T . 209 He also speaks well of the general design of housing s t r u c tures and the schools. He takes very favorable notice of the Health-Care system. The system was designed by a team composed of John Hopkins Medical I n s t i t u t e and Connecticut General Life In surance Company personnel and contains some elements of p r e ventive medicine. n i He asks the question, "Is Columbia re a lly a city?" His answer i s , "Not at p re s e n t." He no tes, however, th a t General E le c tric is building a large center in Columbia and about 30 other in d u strie s are e ith e r open or under construc tio n . Mr. Sunderland feels th a t, i f current plans are com p le te d , there is a strong chance th a t Columbia w ill indeed become a c ity . Columbia, V irginia, appears to be a ttra c tin g the desired industry. General E le c tric w ill b uild a p la n t in Columbia which w ill furnish 2,000 jobs immediately and 12,000 ev e n tu a lly . In ad d itio n , two colleges are scheduled to open in la te 1970, the Dag Hammarskjold Liberal Arts College and the Howard County Community College. I t is s t i l l too early to be c e rta in , but i t appears th a t Columbia w ill be p r o f ita b le - - in s p ite of the very high 24I b i d . , p. 324. 25 E d ito ria l Research Reports, "European Experience," p. 806. 210 co sts. ( I t has been e stim a ted th a t Columbia w ill cost $1.2 b i l l i o n . ) 26 B ritis h New Towns The B r iti s h New Towns program is the la rg e s t and o ld est attem pt to c o n s tru c t new towns or c i t i e s . C urrently, the e f f o r t is 25 y ears o ld and the new towns provide housing for over 800,000 p e o p le .2^ The New Towns program r e a l l y began a f t e r World War I I . The Labor Party v ic to ry r e s u lte d in the enactment of 2 8 the b a s ic l e g i s l a t i o n n ecessary to c re a te the New Towns (the New Towns Act, 1946). I t should be noted th a t not a l l of the new towns were new--some had s u b s t a n tia l populations p r io r to being d esignated a new town. The b asic procedure was to give the government the a u th o rity to form a s e r ie s of p u b lic co rp o ratio n s fo r each of the New Towns. During the f i r s t th re e y e a rs , most of the proposed new towns were lo c a te d near London and intended to accommo date i t s overflow p o p u la tio n . There were o th e r purposes; thus, Hemel Hempstead (new town designated 4 February 1947) was an o ld e r borough which was to be r e v i t a l i z e d . Hemel 2 ft "Master B uilders w ith a New Concept," Business Week, August 20, 1966. 27 E d ito r ia l Research R eports, "European E xperience," p. 813. 2 8 Madge, "The New Towns Program in B r ita in , p . 209. 211 Hempstead, i t should be n o ted , alread y had a p o p u la tio n of 21 , 00 0 .29 The new towns got o f f to a slow and tro u b le d s t a r t . There was an excess of a d m in is tra tiv e d e t a i l and paperwork, and p lanning took overly long. Once s t a r t e d , th e re were p h y sic a l problems: lack of housing fo r the workers who were to b u ild the new towns, e l e c t r i c a l and w ater s h o rta g e s , and inadequate sewerage system s. There was a ls o , in p re v io u sly b u ilt - u p a r e a s , a con s id e ra b le amount of lo c a l o p p o s itio n . Early in the program, th e re was a continuous s h o r t age o f funds (clue p rim a rily to n a tio n a l f in a n c ia l problems) , la b o r and m a te r ia l. An attem pt was made to make the new towns s e l f - s u f f i c i e n t as faT as employment was concerned. Factory and commercial space was b u i l t e a rly in most o f the new towns and e f f o r t s were made to a t t r a c t i n d u s t r i a l and commercial 30 e n t e r p r i s e . I t was discovered th a t in d u s try was r e lu c ta n t to purchase space but w illi n g to r e n t completed s t r u c t u r e s . The r e s u l t s have, g e n e ra lly , been very good (both fo r in d u s tr y and fo r the new town c o r p o r a tio n ) . Commercial ce n ters were u su a lly a lso c i t y c o n s tru c te d . This included both c e n t r a l l y lo c a te d o f f ic e spaces and 29 I b i d . 212 d is p e rs e d shopping c e n t e r s . Again th e economic r e tu r n s were e x c e l l e n t . By the end o f the 1960’s , the New Towns o f England 31 and Wales were showing s u rp lu s e s o f about 440,000. There was a c o n s id e ra b le amount o f s o c i a l d is c o n t e n t , some b e h a v io ra l d i s o r d e r s , d elin q u en cy , e t c . Much of th is is most l i k e l y due to the d i s l o c a t i n g e f f e c t s o f the move to a new and u n f a m ilia r neighborhood. (P a rt o f the problem may be sim ply t h a t more in fo rm a tio n is being r e c o r ded.) There have been com plaints from new town r e s id e n ts about what they c a l l "the new town b l u e s ." Some r e s id e n ts have m ain ta in ed they were as d e p re ssin g as an American su b u rb . 3^ The c o rp o ra te n a tu re o f the new town d ev elo p ers has led to some r a t h e r u n in s p ir in g a r c h i t e c t u r e and d e s ig n , both r e s i d e n t i a l , c i t y and com m ercial. Adequate a t t e n t i o n was no t given to open space d e s ig n . 33 The g e n e ra l im pression given by most of th e new towns is d r e a r y . 3-* As quoted from a Labor P a rty J o u rn a l e d i t o r i a l : 31 I b id . 32 E d i t o r i a l Research R e p o rts, "European E x p e rie n c e ," o. 814. 33 Madge, "The New Towns Program in B r i t a i n , " p. 211. 3/*There are e x c e p tio n s : H arlow 's s q u a re , C raw ley's r e g io n a l shopping c e n t e r , Cumbernauld's g e n e ra l d e sig n . 213 On the o th e r h a n d ...t h e New Towns crea ted by Development Corporations have undoubtedly been a su c c e s s .. .Taken as a whole the New Towns have been a f in a n c ia l success and w ill pay t h e i r way. The s k il le d resources of the Development Corporations and th e ir more d ir e c t powers of planning and land ac q u isitio n make for avoidance of d elay s. W e are s u f f i c ie n tly impressed with the advantages of the Development Cor p o ratio n s method to wish to see i t applied fu rth e r, and on a la rg e r s c a l e . . . f o r new development, for town expansions. . . and even for redeveloping se le c te d areas w ith in towns, where r e q u e s te d .35 Another reason fo r the success of some of the B r i t i s h New Towns is th a t some are sp ecial-p u rp o se towns. Some o f these sp e cia l-p u rp o se New Towns are l i s t e d in Table 9. The quote says nothing about the am en ities, the e n vironment, or s o c ia l problems. I t should be noted th a t a second wave of new towns is under se rio u s co n sid e ra tio n in B rita in a t th is time. TABLE 9 SPECIAL-PURPOSE BRITISH N EW TOW NS Cumberault (Scotland Hemel Hempstead Welwyn City (H ertfo rd s h ire New Town Basildon Corby P e te rle e Newton A y cliffe T hird -g en eratio n design Expand an old borough of 20,000 Meet expanded industry o f region Repair ravages of shoddy housing p r o je c t in Essex S teel p la n t For coal miners Keep is o la te d war plant in operation 3S|,The Face of B r i t a i n , ” S o c ia lis t Commentary, Sep tember 1961, p. i-x x x i. 214 Cuidad Guayana Cuidad Guayana, Venezuela, as noted in Chapter IV, was a r a th e r thoroughly designed c i t y . I t was e x c e lle n tly s i t u a t e d w ith reg ard to r e s o u rc e s , and the reg io n had a c tu a l l y s t a r t e d to develop b efore Guayana was planned. The c i t y c o n s tru c tio n began about 1961. Investm ent was to be $3.8 b i l l i o n over the 1963-1966 p e rio d . Actual 7 A expenditures exceeded th is by about a b i l l i o n d o l l a r s . Two r a th e r s e rio u s problems began to develop by 1963-1964. F i r s t , the p o p u la tio n in flu x was g r e a te r than a n tic ip a te d (70,000 compared to an a n tic ip a te d 50,000 by 37 1963). Second, c o n s tru c tio n o f w ater and sewerage systems lagged behind the planned r a t e . B r a s i l i a I t is f a i r l y c e r ta in th a t the c o n s tru c tio n of B ra s i l i a p laced f in a n c ia l burden on the B ra z ilia n economy th a t 38 i t could not r e a l l y b e a r. The pace of c o n s tru c tio n was ''b reak n eck ,” probably r e s u l t i n g in some of the over-runs in spending; as of May, 1959, over $350,000,000 had been 39 spent w ith no end in s i g h t . Attempts are being made to Radwin, Planning Urban Growth. 3 7 Edwin A. R oberts, J r . , "P lanners Dream C ity ," N ational O b serv er, May 18, 1964. T Q Business Week, September 12, 1959, p. 132. 39I b i d . , p. 133. 215 o b ta in an a d d itio n a l $300 to $400 m illio n loan package from the I n t e r n a t i o n a l Monetary Fund. The IMF v i s i t e d B r a z il and countered by demanding t h a t B r a z il re a rra n g e i t s economy and p r a c t i c e some a u s t e r i t y . B ra z il appeared unable or u n w illin g to do t h i s . Loan n e g o tia tio n s w ith the IMF were broken o f f in J u l y , 1959. B r a z i l 's economy, p a r t l y as a r e s u l t o f the B r a s i l i a p r o j e c t , is in an exceed in g ly bad s t a t e . I n f l a t i o n is r u n ning 10 p e rc e n t to 30 p e rc e n t a y e a r , the prime i n t e r e s t r a t e is about 3 p e rc e n t p e r m onth, th e re are m assive t r a n s f e r payments to feed the poor n o rth e rn s e c t i o n s . The government su b s id iz e s c o f f e e , highways, and r a i l r o a d s . The armed s e rv ic e s take 40 p e rc e n t of the budget. Sao Paulo c o n tr ib u te s alm ost 65 p e rc e n t o f a l l tax income b u t re c e iv e s 7 p e rc e n t o f the b e n e f i t s . 4^ D espite a l l o f the above problem s, B ra z il is e x p e r i encing a boom, b u ild in g is up, m an u factu rin g , from chem icals to au to m o b ile s, is up. O il p ro d u c tio n has gone from 5,000 b a r r e l s a day to 70,000 b a r r e l s a day in th re e y e a rs . At the same tim e: "The p ro cess o f b u ild in g B r a s i l i a , o f c o u rse , is d ra in in g away l o t s o f money."4^ To complete m a tte r s : " B r a s i l i a , to o , looks lik e an im p r a c tic a l lo c a ti o n . Before the government began lay in g 4QI b i d . , p. 134 41I b i d . , p. 136 216 new roads, the c a p ita l s i t e was 78 mi. from the n e a re st r a i l r o a d , 450 mi. from the n e a re s t paved ro ad s, and 120 mi. 4 2 from the n e a re s t a i r s t r i p . " B r a s ilia appears to be a fu n ctio n in g c i t y , at l e a s t . The p o p u latio n is 400,000 and is expected to climb to 700,000 in four of fiv e y e a rs. As noted in the same a r t i c l e , B r a s ilia is surrounded by temporary " s a t e l l i t e c i t i e s "44 which are described as c o lo rfu l and liv e ly . There are now both road connections (to Rio and Sao Paulo) and r a i l connections to Rio (w eekly). Summary and Conclusions I t is p o ssib le to draw se v e ra l conclusions from the new town and c i t y e f f o r t to d ate. The main conclusions are: 1. I t is p o ssib le to b u ild new towns, and with le s s c e r t a i n t y , new c i t i e s . 2. Under the r ig h t circum stances, new towns of con s id e ra b le s iz e can be b u i l t which are f in a n c ia ll y v ia b le , i . e . , they can pay t h e i r way and show a p r o f i t . C e rta in ly , th is is tru e up to 100,000 and 250,000 p o p u la tio n . 3. I t is probably p o s s ib le to b u ild new towns 42Ib id . ^ B r a s i l i a B u l l e t i n , September 1968, p. 8 . 217 and/or c i t i e s which can fu n c tio n econom ically fo r t h e i r r e s i d e n t s . 4. I t is p o s s ib le to b u ild new towns which a r e , at l e a s t s u p e r f i c a l l y , p le a s a n t p la ces to liv e and work, and which fu rn is h a d e s ira b le environm ent. This is a t l e a s t tru e in time p erio d s of 20 to 30 y e a rs . 5. I t is p o s s ib le to b u ild towns which fu rn is h ade quate p u b lic and p r iv a te s e r v ic e s , again, in a r e l a t i v e l y s h o rt-ru n sense. 6 . I t is not c e r t a i n th a t s o c i a l l y balanced or e t h n i c a l l y balanced new towns can be c o n s tru c te d . 7. I t is not c e r t a i n th a t c i t i e s of any s iz e which meet Life Q uality and E co lo g ical Standards over the SPSS can be c o n s tru c te d . The above conclusions must be q u a l i f i e d to some e x t e n t . A ll of items 1) through 5) have been done somewhere in the world under some circ u m sta n ces, in some cases, w ith s u b s t a n tia l government s u b s id ie s . I t remains to be dem onstrated th a t item s 1) through 5) can be done under the American " fre e e n te r p r is e " system. Items 6) and 7) appear to be out of the q u estio n w ithout government subsidy. Experience also appears to in d ic a te the follow ing dictums must be met i f a new town or c i t y is to succeed. 218 1. Good design and planning are necessary. This includes economic, s o c ia l, demographic, tr a n s p o rta tio n , and physical planning. 2. Adequate finances must be av a ila b le in a tim ely fashion. 3. City serv ices and f a c i l i t i e s should be developed rap id ly . 4. I t is at le a s t h e lp fu l, i f not mandatory, to s e le c t a s i t e th a t possesses some degree of development 5. Resources of any type are d e s ira b le . In the United S ta te s , i t is also necessary to: 6 . Appeal to the middle classes (and up). 7. Provide a broad v a rie ty of am enities (to lure people out of developed urban a r e a s ) . F in a lly , one comes to the question of how well the new towns have done. Although i t is very d i f f i c u l t to rate the sev eral dozen new towns which have been b u i l t to date without a d e ta ile d study of each, an attempt w ill be made to make a very cursory comparative ra tin g fo r some of the c i t i e s which have been mentioned in Chapters IV and V. The ra tin g is ra th e r su b je c tiv e ; a l l th a t could be done was to make some b e tte r-th a n -a v e ra g e , poorer-than- average, or average judgments. This r e la tiv e ra tin g appears in Table 10. TABLE 10 RATING OF DESIGNED CITIES NOTATION: +1 City appears to meet c r i t e r i a , b e t t e r than average. 0 City meets c r i t e r i a in an average fashion. -I City meets c r i t e r i a poorly, below average. 1 I n s u f f ic ie n t inform ation a v a ila b le . NA Not ap p lic a b le . C r ite r i a No. 1 No. 2 No. 3 No. 4 City Economy, Overall ( P r o f i ta b il ity ) Economy Resident P lea san t, Pleasing Environmental Q uality Letchworth + 1 + 1 +1 +1 Welwyn + 1 + 1 + 1 +1 Radburn -1 0 + 1 + 1 Greenbelts NA 0 +1 + 1 B ritis h New Towns + 1 +1 0 + 1 B r a s ilia Too soon, NA 0 +1 0 Ciudad Guayana Too soon, N A +1 0 0 Reston -1 NA +1 + 1 Colombia + 1 + 1 + 1 + 1 i TABLE 10--c o n tin u e d NOTATION: +1 City appears to meet c r i t e r i a , b e t t e r than average. 0 City meets c r i t e r i a in an average fashion. -1 City meets c r i t e r i a poorly, below average. I I n s u ff ic ie n t inform ation a v a ila b le . NA Not ap p lica b le. C r ite r ia No. 5 No. 6 No. 7 City Public Services Q uality P riv ate Services Q uality Social Letchworth + 1 0 0 Welwyn + 1 + 1 0 Radburn NA N A +1 Greenbelts NA NA +1 B r itis h New Towns + 1 + 1 -1 B r a s ilia + 1 -1 NA, I Ciudad Guayana + 1 NA, I NA, I Reston -1 -1 + 1 Colombia 0 -1 + 1 ^In c i t i e s the siz e of B r a s ilia or Ciudad Guayana, i t w ill take decades to properly ev alu ate. Overall Average + 0.71 +0.85 +0.6 + 0.5 + 0.59 +0.4 ) 1 ) + 0.5 ) + 0. 59 220 CHAPTER VI THE COST-BENEFIT M ETHOD AND URBAN DESIGN In th is chapter, the ap p lic a tio n of c o s t-b e n e fit analysis to the s tru c tu rin g of a c ity w ill be gen erally discussed and described. Obviously, there are areas where c la s s ic a l methods w ill also be used in conjunction with the c o s t-b e n e fit approach. This chapter w ill s t a r t with some general remarks on the c ity design process from a systems viewpoint. A sp e c i f i c l i s t of steps in the design w ill be p resen ted . Some of the problems (the more d i f f i c u l t and c r i t i c a l ) w ill be discussed fu rth e r on in the chapter. Following the general remarks, a b r i e f review of some attempts to u t i l i z e the c o s t-b e n e fit method in urban planning w ill be presented. General Remarks As previously mentioned, the primary method u t i l i z e d w ill be th a t of the c o s t-b e n e fit approach. Some m odifica tio n s w ill be intorduced to the c o s t-b e n e fit approach and occasional use of other d is c ip lin e s w ill be necessary. The design process w ill be o u tlin ed b r i e f l y in th is 221 222 s e c tio n and d isc u sse d in g r e a te r d e t a i l throughout the remainder of th is ch a p te r. The design process proceeds as fo llo w s : 1. A s e t of l i f e q u a lity stan d ard s and e c o lo g ic a l goals are adopted. Other goals are c l e a r ly s ta te d e . g . , re tu r n on c a p ita l exceeding fiv e p e r c e n t, a m o rtiza tio n w ith in 30 y e a rs , e tc . 2. A region is assumed to be given. The reg io n is assumed to be la rg e compared to the c ity to be b u i l t . 3. The co sts and b e n e fits to be included or excluded w ill be developed. 4. Methods o f e v a lu a tio n o f these c o sts and bene f i t s w ill be in tro d u ced . 5. The problem of time must be reso lv ed ( i . e . , d is c o u n tin g ) . 6 . C o n stra in ts and c r i t e r i a must be c l e a r ly s p e c i f i e d . 7. A d e ta ile d reg io n a l survey must be made. 8 . Aji a re a l u n it c l a s s i f i c a t i o n scheme must be devised. 9. A method o f sp e c ify in g a re a l land use must be developed and u t i l i z e d . 10. The a c tu a l s i t e of the urban development must be s p e c if ie d . 11. The a c tu a l c o s t- b e n e f it tr a d e - o f f s must be made: 223 a. Absolute lo c a tio n , b. C e n tra liz a tio n vs. d e c e n tra liz a tio n , c. R elative lo catio n d. a), b ) , and c) vs. the tra n s p o rta tio n system, e. Temporal tr a d e -o f fs , 12. The f in a l t o t a l costs and b e n e fits must be summarized. This is as fa r as economics, or any other science, can go. If the c ity designer (a rc h ite c t? planner? develop er?) decides at some p oint th a t the c iv ic center should be at the brow of a h i l l , or th a t his house should be on a lake or stream , he can be shown the economic e ffe c ts of h is d e c i sio n , and th a t is a l l . The f in a l decisions must s t i l l be value judgments. The remainder of th is chapter w ill discuss the steps o u tlin e d above. There are some serious problems associated with a number of the ste p s. While i t obviously w ill not be p o ssib le to resolve a l l of the problems, i t is hoped th a t they can a t le a s t be s ta te d . Previous A pplications of the Cost-B enefit Approach There have been previous attempts to apply the cost- b e n e fit approach to c ity planning, i f not design. There have also been some who fe e l th a t the method should be more widely applied. 224 The Need for the Approach There have been occasional voices recommending the use of the c o s t-b e n e f it approach in c i t y design and planning. Maurice Peston"*- m aintains th a t planners must have a method of comparing a l te r n a te s e ts of a c tio n . He goes on to say i t is n ecessary to: 1. P re d ic t consequences of a c tio n . 2. Evaluate the consequences. 3. Accomplish the above under conditions of r i s k and u n c e rta in ty . He goes on to p r a is e the c o s t-b e n e f it approach: I f planners have begun to recognize the ex isten ce o f a lte r n a te courses of a c tio n , of r is k and u n c e rta in ty , and of problems of value; th i s is good for the future of planning and may even be a t t r i b u t a b l e to cost b e n e fit a n a ly s is .2 Then Mr. Peston goes on to conclude: M y conclusion is th a t I f a i l to see what the foun dation for r a tio n a l planning can be i f i t is not cost- b e n e fit a n a l y s i s . 3 Past Experience There has been at le a s t one s ig n i f ic a n t attem pt to apply a c o s t-b e n e f it approach to urban expansion. The locale was Ipswich, a c ity of about 120,000 in Southeast ■^Maurice P eston, "C ost-B enefit V alues," Town and Country P lan n in g , Vol. 37, No. 12, December 1969, p. 563. 2I b i d . , p. 564. ^I b i d . , p . 565. 225 England (S u ffo lk C ounty).^ An i n i t i a l stu d y was begun in 1965. This study was d ir e c te d toward developing measures to handle a p o p u la tio n increm ent of approxim ately 70,000 people by 1981.^ The r e s u l t s o f the f i r s t study were a recommendation to lo c a te the bulk o f the p o p u la tio n in c re a s e on high q u a l i t y a g r i c u l t u r a l land to the west o f th e c i t y . C ontroversy about the use o f high q u a l i t y a g r i c u l t u r a l lan d le d to a second study which confirm ed the r e s u l t s o f the f i r s t . ^ As a r e s u l t of the co n tin u ed c o n tro v e rs y , a t h i r d stu d y was mounted. This stu d y was to follow the c o s t - b e n e f i t form at. The t h i r d approach u t i l i z e d a c o s t - b e n e f i t a n a ly s is 7 m a unique form, the p la n n in g balan ce s h e e t . I t was r e a l i z e d t h a t any changes, developm ents, or a l t e r a t i o n s w i l l have broad e f f e c t s . There w i l l be a d v a n t ages and d isa d v an tag es f o r a wide v a r i e t y o f groups and i n d iv id u a ls . I t is n e c e ss a ry to attem p t to s o r t out and quan t i f y th e se advantages and d is a d v a n ta g e s . In the f i n a l c o s t - b e n e f i t stu d y , e ig h t a l t e r n a t e s were c o n sid e re d . C o n sid e ra tio n s are summarized in Table 11. ^N. L i t c h f i e l d and Honor Chapman, "C o st-B e n e fit and Urban Expansion: A Case Study, Ip sw ic h ," Urban S t u d i e s , p .155 5I b i d . , p. 155. 6I b i d . , p. 156. 7T7TT _ . 226 TABLE 11 COST-BENEFITS: IPSWICH8 Producers/Operators Consumers 1.0 Development Agency 3.0 Current Landowners 3.1 Displaced 3.1.1 In Urban and V illage Areas 3.1.2 A g ricu ltu ral Land owners and Farmers 3.3 Not Displaced 3.3.1 In Urban and V illage Areas 3.3.2 Farmers 5.0 Local A u th o ritie s and Ratepayers 2.0 The Public in the Expanded Town 2.2 In the Town and D is tr ic t Centres' ' Commercial1 Occupiers and Users of Public and P r i vate Buildings 2.4 In P rin c ip a l R e sid en tial Areas Remaining § New Residents 2.6 In P rin c ip a l In d u s tria l Areas I n d u s t r i a l i s t s 6 Workers 2.8 In P rin c ip a l Open Space and Recreation Areas Users of Regional Open Space and Countryside 2.10 On P rin c ip a l Communica t ions Systems T . 10.1 Vehicle Users -In te rn a l T ra ffic -Through T ra ffic 2.10.2 Public Transport -External - In te rn al 2.10.3 P edestrians 4.0 Current Occupiers 4.2 Displaced 4 .2.1 In Urban and V illage Areas 4.2.2 A g ric u ltu ra l Occu p ie rs 4.4 Not Displaced 4.4.1 In Urban and V illage Areas 4.4.2 A g ric u ltu ra l Occu p ie rs 8I b i d . , p. 161. 227 Each of the ca teg o rie s s e t fo rth in Table 11 above, are then defined and discussed in some d e t a i l . Each propo s a l , or a l te r n a te , is considered in some d e t a i l and r e la te d to th a t category s e t fo rth in Table 11. The f i r s t category (1*0) to be consdered is the development agency. This is a p u b lic agency. The cost e l e ment which i t was mandatory to consider was: 1. Low t o t a l n et f in a n c ia l cost of opening up and developing the land fo r the various uses re q u ire d . 2. Early development of the land. Allowance for Q fu tu re growth of the town. Other c a p ita l costs are: 3. Land a c q u is itio n . 4. U t i l i t i e s . 5. T ra n sp o rta tio n . 6 . A m enities. ^ Some of the b e n e fits are l i s t e d and c l a s s i f i e d in category 2.2 (Towns and D is tr ic t C entres); the l i s t used in the c o s t-b e n e fit study is :" ^ 1. Wide choice o f d if fe re n t types of Town and D is t r i c t Centre f a c i l i t i e s and d if f e r e n t fa c e ts of the same f a c i l i t y . ^I b i d . , p . 163. 10I b i d . , U I b id . , p. 165. 228 2 . S u ita b le lo c a ti o n o f the u s e rs in r e l a t i o n to : (a) expanded town, and Ob) the su rro u n d in g catchm ent a re a . 3. P le a s a n t environm ent in r e l a t i o n to th e a t t r a c t iv e q u a l i t y of th e b u ild in g s an d /o r lan d scap e and the p r o v is io n o f a n c i l l a r y f a c i l i t i e s . The ca teg o ry '’environm ent" is m entioned b u t l i t t l e e ls e i s s a id . I t is a "dummy i s s u e . " Mention is made o f a v a r i e t y o f d esig n c o n s t r a i n t s ; fo r example: A i r c r a f t n o ise I n d u s t r i a l a re a R e c re a tio n area Communication systems S e p a ra tio n of autom obile and p e d e s t r i a n t r a f f i c V ehicle f re e flow (freew ays) V ehicle a c c e s s i b i l i t y E x te rn a l t r a f f i c I n t e r n a l t r a f f i c S afety c o n s id e ra tio n s S e p a ra tio n o f p e d e s tr ia n s and v e h ic le s Some o f th e e f f e c t s which are a c t u a l l y c o ste d out a r e : P o p u la tio n a f f e c t e d T o tal a re a r e q u ir e d (am ount/cost) A g r i c u ltu r a l lan d taken (am ount/cost) 229 Good q u a lity land (amount/cost) Medium q u a lity land (amount/cost) Roads req u ired (cost) U t i l i t i e s (cost) Sewage, gas, e l e c t r i c i t y , and water Building co n stru c tio n (cost) . While th is was not a true c o s t-b e n e fit a n a ly s is , i t was at le a s t an attempt to sy ste m a tic a lly evaluate co sts. This cost summary is made for the fiv e competing plans for expansion and the recommendation is made on the b asis of minimum co st. A second attempt to u t i l i z e the c o s t-b e n e fit 12 approach is described in another a r t i c l e by L itc h fie ld , dealing with the expansion of Peterborough. The basic prob lem is to expand Peterborough by a fa c to r of 2 to 1 ( i . e . , population 80,000 to 160,000). A team of consultants appointed by a Peterborough New Town Development Corporation came up with fiv e a l te r n a ti v e s . They were: 1. An expansion in a lin e a r form to the north along a r a ilr o a d lin e . 2. P erip h eral expansion. To the north and west of Peterborough, two towns (Castor and Ortons) to be expanded. 3. P eripheral and major escapement. Orton to be 12 N. L itc h fie ld , "C ost-B enefit Analysis in Urban Ex pan sio n ," Regional S tu d ie s , V o l.3, 1960, p. 123-155. 230 developed plus a l i n e a r development to the southw est. 4. V illa g e s . Townships or v ill a g e s developed along l i n e a r ra y s , m ostly on a n o rth -s o u th a x is . 5. P e rip h e ra l (C astor and Ortons) plus small 13 escapement v i l l a g e s . The approach is very s im ila r to the a r t i c l e reviewed p re v io u sly . In f a c t , an a n a l y t i c a l scheme almost id e n t i c a l to th a t p re se n te d in Table 11 is f e a t u r e d .* 4 As in the p r e vious a r t i c l e , the co sts o f the f iv e a l t e r n a t e s are compared w ith l i t t l e or no a t t e n t i o n to the b e n e f i t s . No attem pt is made to a tta c h d o l l a r (or pound) v alu es to b e n e f i t s . No attem pt is made to s y s te m a tic a lly develop c r i t e r i a or d i s count fu tu re b e n e f i t s . A lte rn a te 5), p e r ip h e ra l p lu s sm all escapement v i l la g e s, was f i n a l l y recommended. Again, the a r t i c l e is not a tru e c o s t- b e n e f it a n a ly s is , d e s p ite the t i t l e . M odified Cost B e n e fit Procedure The c o s t - b e n e f i t approach adopted fo r the purposes of t h i s d i s s e r t a t i o n was d efin ed in Chapter I I I . The ste p s are re p e a te d here fo r convenience; they a re: 1. O bjectives and g o a ls. 2. I d e n t i f i c a t i o n and in c lu s io n of c o s ts and 13I b i d . , p. 123 14I b i d . , p. 130 231 b e n e f i t s . 3. Valuation of costs and b e n e fits. 4. The problem of time. 5. C onstraints. 6 . C rite ria . The conventional c o st-b e n e fit procedure is generally adequate, v;ith a few changes. The primary d i f f f i c u l t i e s are in areas of assignment of costs and b en efits and in the role of time. These two topics w ill be discussed in some d e ta il. Prior to t h i s , a few comments are in order regarding the other ste p s. The fundamental goal i s , obviously, the economical configuration of a c ity , or more s p e c ific a lly , the a c t i v i tie s which c o n s titu te a c ity . This has to be accomplished in lig h t of another se t of o b jectiv es, the Life Quality Standards and the Ecological Standards. The task also has to be accomplished under a se t of c o n s tra in ts , some economic ( i . e . , to ta l available funds, financing, e tc .) and some b io lo g ica l or ecological. These l a t t e r are absolute lim its , i . e . , the Tq and the EQ which are beyond tra d e -o ffs . ( If these lim its are transcended, there w ill be no one l e f t to do the stu d ie s.) Id e n tif ic a tio n of costs and b e n e fits presents no special problem. Several areas which must be handled in a d iffe re n t fashion are assignment of costs and b e n e fits , 232 v a lu a tio n of co sts and b e n e f i ts , the problem of time and c r i t e r i a s e le c tio n . These w ill be discussed in some d e t a i l . Assigning Costs and B enefits As has been p rev io u sly noted, the ty p ic a l co st- b e n e fit an a ly sis assesses the costs and b e n e fits of a p ro j e c t or d ec isio n to an agency or an in d iv id u a l. In the case of many la rg e p r o je c ts , and p a r t i c u l a r l y something as com plex and expensive as a new c ity or town, th is simple approach does not adequately d escrib e what a c tu a lly happens. In p a r t i c u l a r , i t f a i l s to determine to whom the co sts or b e n e f its a c tu a lly go. For example, some of the i n i t i a l co sts might be paid by in v e s to rs and some by a fe d e ra l government subsidy. Who w ill b e n e fit? When? The re s id e n ts would b e n e fit at once through the tim ely ex isten ce of the f a c i l i t i e s (which a re , presumably, c o s t- e f f e c tiv e fo r them ); in v e sto rs w ill b e n e fit over an extended p erio d of time due to the stream of p r o f i t s (b e n e fits ) occurring every year (discounted, o f c o u r s e ) . The p u b lic a t larg e would presumably b e n e fit due to a reduc tio n in congestion in nearby c i t i e s (considerable) and in d is t a n t c i t i e s ( s l i g h t l y ) . The general p u b lic would receive neg ativ e b e n e f its in se v e ra l forms: 1. A red u ctio n in farm land, and/or 2. A red u ctio n in f o r e s t land. 233 Both are r e a l iz e d over time and should be d i s counted in some fa sh io n . 3. A dim inishing o f the " e c o lo g ic a l sp a c e ." This is c e r t a i n l y over tim e; fo r p r a c t i c a l p u rposes, i t is f o r ev er. How one discounts or w eights th is is u n c lea r. 4. A decrease in the e a r t h ’s oxygen-producing c a p a b il ity ( i f greenery is d e s tro y e d ) . Even i f hard to q u a n tify , some attem pt to in clu d e some of these fa c to rs should be made. Some of the four e f f e c t s above must be a ssessed to the species homo sap ien s as a whole. For p r a c t i c a l p u rposes, the r e c ip ie n ts of the c o sts and b e n e f its w ill be divided in to th re e groups: 1. The in v e s to r s . 2. The r e s id e n ts ( f u tu r e ) . 3. Governmental agencies ( f e d e r a l, s t a t e , co u n ty ). The l a s t category w i l l probably be, fo r the most p a r t , the fe d e ra l government. I t w ill be assumed, again on p r a c t i c a l grounds, th a t the f e d e ra l government is in some 15 sense a r e p r e s e n ta tiv e of the p u b lic a t la rg e . 15 At th is p o in t in tim e, th is i s , ad m itte d ly , a weak assum ption. I t is an assum ption, however, \diose v a l i d i t y must be r e a liz e d in the r a th e r near fu tu re i f American s o c ie ty is to continue as a v ia b le e n t i t y . 234 Valuation of Costs and Benefits When d ire c t valuation of costs and b e n e fits can be accomplished, there are no re a l problems. What of those costs and b en efits which are not so simply evaluated? Some of these might be: 1. A view or v is ta s . 2. Open spaces, acres per person. 3. A given species of b ird or predator or r e p t i l e . 4. A species of p la n t. 5. D estruction of a n a tu ra l waterway (and i t s replacement, presumably, with an equivalent a r t i f i c i a l waterway). As noted, there is no absolute way to evaluate any of the above costs and b e n e fits . Further, there is no re a lly s a tis fa c to ry way out. Several things could be done, some of which are very s a tis fa c to ry . They are: 1. See how much the item has been valued on the market in other areas. Thus, the value of a view or v is t a could be estimated by the higher p ric e of homes with views over sim ila r homes without views. 2. In the case of meeting ecological standards, some estim ates of value might be made by considering what w ill happen i f a species or p la n t is destroyed. There is s t i l l a "niche;" i t w ill be f i l l e d by another p la n t or 235 16 animal. P o ssib ly , some change in co st could be estim ated . 3. In the case of the Life Q uality S tandards, i t might be p o ssib le to s t a r t w ith a n a tu ra l s t a t e value o f the p a r t i c u l a r stan d ard i . e . , N acres per person of open space, e t c . , and assume th is N acres re p re se n ts maximum s a t i s f a c - 17 tio n (S ) . There would also be maximum or minimum v a lu e s; i f acres p er person is the sta n d a rd , zero acres is a minimum and 5N or ION acres would reduce s a t i s f a c t i o n to zero. Pic- t o r i a l l y , th is curve would look lik e a h i l l . Now, look a t the re c ip ro c a l 1 / S ( N ) norm alized, so S (JT) = 0. The v e r t i c a l axis should be p ro p o rtio n a l to c o s t. One might attem pt to o b ta in a p o in t or two on the curve from d i f f e r e n t i a l r e s i d e n tia l p ric e s and acres o f open space. The Role of Time This s e c tio n w ill discuss the ro le th a t time plays in r a tio n a l decision-m aking in economic problems. The c l a s s i c a l approach is through c o n s id e ra tio n of d isc o u n tin g , com pounding, i n f l a t i o n , and u n c e rta in ty ( i . e . , expected p r o f i t s ) . Another re la te d concept is th a t o f planning horizons i . e . , a length of time over which planning is assumed to be A "niche" is a b io lo g ic a l term used to d escrib e a place or lo c a tio n in terms o f food, s h e l t e r , s a fe ty , l i g h t , e t c . , which w ill support a species o f animal or p l a n t . 17 N i s , of course, unknown and would re q u ire con s id e ra b le an th ro p o lo g ical rese a rc h to d e fin e . 236 v a l i d . The c l a s s i c a l approaches to some of th e s e problems w i l l be b r i e f l y d is c u s s e d , t h e i r in ad eq u acies d is c u s s e d , and some a l t e r n a t e approaches developed. The C la s s i c a l Approach D iscounting This method attem p ts to compute the p r e s e n t value of fu tu re income. Thus, i f one i s assu re d o f o b ta in in g a y e a rly income o f 1^, I 2 ’ ***I n *n eac^ y e a r (lump sum), the p re s e n t value o f the kth y e a r 's income i s : (1 + r ) k where r= the r a t e of d is c o u n t. Thus, i t is p o s s ib le to compare the p re s e n t value o f a stream of income w ith a lump sum d e liv e r e d today. To give an example, assume one is to 18 be given an income o f $100 p e r y e a r in p e r p e t u i t y . What, i f any, lump sum does th is correspond to? I t s t o t a l value i s : t=x V - I I t=l Cl + r ) 1 I t can be shown th a t t h i s income ($100/year) i s e q u iv a le n t to a lump sum o f $1666.66, The stream o f income could as w ell have been a stream o f b e n e f i t s from a p r o j e c t o r c a p i t a l improvement 18 H a ll, Methodology f o r Systems E n g in e e rs , p. 273. 237 program. Note th a t streams of income or b e n e fits are d i s counted ra th e r rapidly by the conventional discount formula given above. The Planning Horizon In the case of a c ity , the planning horizon is a considerable period of time. C ertainly, more than one l i f e time is involved. This would appear to c o n tra d ic t the ra th e r rapid r a te at which b e n e fits are discounted using conventional economic methods. This is discussed fu rth e r below. Uncertainty The conventional approach under conditions of uncer- 19 ta in ty is to use maximum expected p r o f i t as a c r ite r i o n . In th is case, a lte rn a te s are evaluated by the following scheme: Expected p r o f i t = P^W - P^L where: P^ = p ro b a b ility of winning = 1 - P^ W = winnings L = lo sses. Thus, i f the p ro b a b ility of winning was 0.2 (P^ = 1 - 0.2 = 0 . 8) , and the winnings were $1, 000,000 (=W), and the costs of losing were $100,000 (L), then: 19I b i d . , p. 270. 238 Expected p r o f i t = 1,000,000 x 0.2 - 100,000 x 0.8 = $120,000 Thus, c a rry in g out the a c tio n would s u p e r f i c i a l l y appear to be a d e s ira b le a l t e r n a t i v e . A l i t t l e f u r th e r thought w ill b rin g th i s conclusion to q u e s tio n , namely, the above r is k would be taken a t once by a la rg e o rg a n iz a tio n or company, i . e . , one th a t could e a s ily take the p o s s ib le $80,000 lo s s . The chance would most lik e ly not be taken by an o rg a n iz a tio n th a t would be bankrupt or s e rio u s ly in ju re d by such a lo s s . Inadequacy o f C la s s ic a l Approach The approach d efin ed above s u f f e rs from two in a d e q u a c ie s. F i r s t , the age o f the decision-m aker is not taken in to account. Thus, fo r a 70-year old in v e s to r , an a l t e r n a tiv e which is very d e s ira b le over a 40-year p e rio d is no a l t e r n a t i v e at a l l . Secondly, the d isc o u n tin g p e rio d , even w ith moderate i n t e r e s t r a t e s , works too r a p id ly . Thus, fo r s ix p e r c e n t, the value of a y e a rly b e n e f it is cut in h a l f in ten y e a rs , to a t h i r d in 20 y e a rs , and to le s s than o n e -te n th in 40 y e a rs . This does not fu rn is h a u se fu l to o l fo r long-range p la n n in g -- in f a c t , i t almost says th ere is no long-range p 1ann in g ! Something is c l e a r ly wrong. The w ater system and fo u n ta in s o f Rome were b u i l t almost 2000 years ago and are s t i l l y ie ld in g b e n e f i t s . Using the c l a s s i c a l discount 239 form ula, th e re d o esn ’ t seem to be any way t h a t the fo u n t a i n s - -o r anything meant to l a s t over 20 to 40 y e a rs -- c o u ld ev e r be j u s t i f i e d o r b u i l t . A lte rn a te Approach This s e c tio n w i l l t r e a t problems o f d e a lin g w ith the b e n e f i t s produced by a given p r o j e c t through i t s u s e fu l l i f e . F i r s t , w ith o u t re g ard to tim e, th e re are th re e or fo u r main c o s ts in v o lv ed w ith any p r o j e c t , a c t i v i t y , e t c . They a r e : 1. C o n s tru c tio n c o s ts . 2. O perating c o s ts . 3. M aintenance c o s ts . 20 4. D em olition c o s ts . These must be b alan ced a g a in s t: 1. Revenues. 2. B e n e f its . 3. Salvage v a lu e . Without any lo ss o f g e n e r a l i t y , i t w ill be assumed th a t 21 revenues * o p e ra tin g c o sts + m aintenance c o s ts . Again, i t would p ro b ab ly be s a fe to assume t h a t d em o litio n c o s ts 20 I t is assumed th a t some attem pt i s made to c o r r e c t f o r i n f l a t i o n o r a t l e a s t take i t in to account. 21 R e a l i s t i c a l l y , th e re is probably some long-term p h y s ic a l d e p r e c ia tio n going on th a t is never q u ite compen s a te d f o r by m aintenance. 240 and salvage values are not s iz a b le items (they would also tend to c a n c e l). Thus, we are l e f t w ith the problem of com paring c o n stru c tio n costs (at the p re se n t) with a stream of b e n e fits which a rriv e over time. The c o s t- b e n e f it trad e can be seen p i c t o r i a l l y in Figure 18. Thus, the problem re tu rn s to the time tran sfo rm atio n between c u rre n t expenditures and a stream of b e n e fits a r r i v ing over time. As p rev io u sly noted, the conventionally used d i s count fu n ctio n reduces the b e n e fits of any p r o je c t to p r a c t i c a l l y zero in only 50 to 60 y e a rs . This f r u s t r a t e s any attem pts to ev alu ate a l te r n a te p r o je c ts which could have e f f e c ts (b e n e fits ) extending over se v e ra l hundred y ears. Yet, many of the i n i t i a l design decisio n s w ill a f f e c t the c ity fo r much of i t s l i f e ! Some method must be found to modify the e f f e c ts of the discounting formula to bring i t s r e s u lt s more n ea rly in to correspondence w ith h i s t o r i c a l f a c t s . S everal approaches are a v a ila b le , none of them com p le te l y s a t i s f a c t o r y . The p o ssib le approaches are: 1. Ignore i n t e r e s t r a te discounting e n t ir e ly and use p h y sical d e p re c ia tio n . 2. Discount w ith a m odified time s c a le . 3. Discount w ith a m odified i n t e r e s t r a t e . 241 In the f i r s t a l t e r n a t i v e , th e i n t e r e s t s of the group th a t d e fe rre d consumption to e f f e c t the c o n s tru c tio n of the p r o je c t are equated w ith a l l o th e r groups who use the p r o j e c t u n t i l i t ceases to be econom ically v ia b le . P h y sic a lly d e p re c ia tin g the p r o j e c t 's p la n t would correspond w ith what is a c tu a l ly happening to the d e liv e r e d b e n e f i ts over tim e. Thus, no group, in tim e, would r e a l l y gain from the d i s counting p ro c e s s. D iscounting w ith a m odified time s c a le is a p o s s i b i l i t y . This hinges on attem p tin g to re d e fin e time or e s t a b l i s h a s u b je c tiv e time or a s o c ia l tim e. C le a rly , time would n o t appear the same to the power s t r u c t u r e of an e n t i t y which w i l l probably e x i s t fo r a thousand years as i t would to an in d iv id u a l. (S u b jectiv e time could be reckoned in increm ents o f expected l i f e . ) Thus, one could p o s tu la te : T (c ity ) = t( p h y s ic a l) x K where: IC < 1.0 (probably < 0 . 1 ) . In o th e r words, time could be d i s t o r t e d ; th u s, ten r e a l y ears might equal one c ity y e a r (K= 0 .1 ). The f i n a l a l t e r n a t i v e , reducing the i n t e r e s t r a te used, would make the numbers "come out r i g h t " bu t th e re seems to be l i t t l e reason f o r th is s te p . 22 There is an o th er way out of the d isc o u n t dilemma. The approach th a t w i l l be taken is based on the sim ple, but 2 2 This approach is due to Dr. J . N iedercorn. 242 ra th e r compelling, observation th a t discounting future bene f i t s is re la te d to the p ro b a b ility of being able to enjoy the b e n e fits . Thus, a 20-year-old can accept a year or two delay in enjoying a b en e fit with a r e la tiv e ly small discount whereas a 70-year-old person cannot. Thus, to a 70-year-old, a three- to fiv e -y e a r delay w ill discount a b e n e fit to zero. The same p rin c ip le may be applied to a public bene f i t . Again i t is necessary to look at the p ro b a b ility th at the e n tity which is to b e n e fit w ill e x is t at some future date to obtain the b e n e fits . Consider a medium-size c ity (200,000 to 300,000). I t is large enough so th a t i t w ill c e rta in ly e x is t for several decades and very probably for one or two hundred y ears. Beyond th is , i t is d i f f i c u l t to see. Thus, any reasonable method of discounting public a c t i v i t i e s in an urban area must consider the p ro b a b ility of the c ity e x istin g to harvest the b en e fits at various time periods in the fu tu re . This leads to a discounting method which is r e l a tiv e ly weak in the f i r s t one hundred y ears. (During th is period, the urban e n tity w ill continue to e x is t with a very high p r o b a b ility .) The next f i f t y years is less c e rta in ; the second f i f t y years is even less sure. Thus, the d i s counting method used should do l i t t l e over the f i r s t one hundred years or so, more over the next f i f t y , and discount a l l b en e fits over the next f i f t y to one hundred years. 243 Thus, the discount r a te s must vary as a fu n ctio n of time. C learly, i t must s t a r t out low, p o ssib ly as low as one p er cen t. This low r a te must be r e ta in e d over a p e rio d o f time wherein i t is c e r ta in th a t the c i t y w ill e x i s t . A fter t h i s , r (t) w ill grow; a f t e r two or th ree hundred y e a rs , any b e n e fits should be discounted to zero. Due to the c l a r i t y and s im p lic ity of th is approach, i t w ill be the one adopted. C r ite r i a One of the c e n tra l and most in tr a c ta b l e problems asso c ia ted with an endeavor to optim ize some general p u b lic good or to e s ta b li s h some type of " f e l e c i f i c c a lc u lu s" is to fix a meaningful c r i t e r i a . C la s s ic a lly , economics and the business community 23 have used p r o f i t as a c r i t e r i a . While th e re are problems asso ciated with using p r o f i t s as a so le c r i t e r i o n , the r e s u lt s of s e rio u s ly d ev iatin g from th is c r i t e r i o n are i l l u s t r a t e d by some of the experience o f various " c r i t e r i a " u t i l i z e d in the Soviet Union and o th e r C e n tra lly Planned Economics. (The r e s u lt s u su a lly vary from lud icro u s to t r a g i c - - t h e p r in c ip a l underlying thread is i r r a t i o n a l i t y 0 23 P r o f it is used in a general sense. Economists have long re a liz e d th a t " p r o f i ts " as they appear on the i n come flow or balance sheets o f co rp o ratio n s are l i t t l e r e la te d to the re a l gains re a liz e d by the de fa c to managers of the e n te r p r is e . I t i s , in f a c t , the r e a l gains to th is group th a t are maximized. 244 To quote Roland McKean: "D isc u ssin g the c o r r e c t way to design c r i t e r i a may seem l i k e d is c u s s in g the c o r r e c t way to fin d the Holy G ra il. The only c r i t e r i o n w i l l be d isc o u n te d c o s ts minus b e n e f i t s w ith account taken o f i n f l a t i o n and u n c e r t a in ty whenever t h i s is a t a l l p o s s i b l e . I t would be n ic e to have a more e le g a n t s o l u t i o n , or something new and in n o v a tiv e to o f f e r , bu t i t seems to come down to d o l l a r v a lu es o f c o s ts v ersu s b e n e f i t s (as c lo s e ly as they can be e s t i m a t e d ) . ^McKean, P u b lic S pending, p. 140. CHAPTER VII THE COST-BENEFIT FORM AT This chapter w ill p re se n t a s p e c if ic c o s t- b e n e f it format d ire c te d toward the design and s tr u c tu r in g of a new town or c ity . As noted at the beginning, such items as d e ta ile d a r c h ite c tu r a l design, landscaping, e t c . , are not included. Rather, the approach is to lo c a te the im portant a c t i v i t i e s in an economically optim al fash io n under a system of c o n s tra in ts . This can then serve as a sk e le to n for a r c h i t e c t u r a l , a r t i s t i c , or landscape design. F i r s t , some general remarks about the procedure se t fo rth in th is chapter w ill be made. Next, some s p e c if ic problem areas w ill be discu ssed . In the next s e c tio n , the reg io n al resource inventory and i t s r a tio n a le w ill be described. Following th is w ill be a s e c tio n s i t i n g the c ity . The next se c tio n discusses a c t i v i t y and po p u latio n s iz in g . The follow ing two se c tio n s discuss lo c a tio n tr a d e o f f s , and then the tra n s p o r ta tio n system design approach is se t fo rth . F in ally the i t e r a t i v e n atu re o f the process is described. 245 246 General Remarks As p re v io u sly m entioned, th is c h a p te r se ts f o rth a c o s t- b e n e f it format d ir e c te d toward econom ically shaping a c i ty . S im p lific a tio n s are used knowingly and i l l u s t r a ti v e l y . Thus, p la n t or a c t i v i t y s iz e s are d iscu ssed in terms of in c re a s in g , d e c re a sin g , and c o n stan t r e tu r n s . The concept of re tu rn s to s c a le i s , no doubt, a s im p lif ic a tio n . I t has proven to be a u se fu l one in economics and, as i l l u s t r a t i v e of one o f the fo rc e s determ ining a c t i v i t y lo c a tio n s , is u se fu l in th is c o n te x t. I t should be r e a liz e d t h a t , in any a c tu a l a p p lic a tio n of th is approach, i t would be n ecessary to use a more d e t a il e d and complex r a tio n a le of the conduct of the firm than is fu rn ish ed by the ’’re tu rn to s c a le " model. Again, i t should be f a i r l y obvious th a t c a l c u l a tio n s of the magnitude re q u ire d make mandatory the use of computers and data p ro c e ssin g methods. 1 Approach I t is assumed th a t a general area has been s e le c te d . The area would be much la r g e r than the c i t y , probably hun dreds of square m il e s . The author m aintains t h a t , given care and compe- te n te n t programmers, i t i £ p o s s ib le to "make sense" w ith a computer. 247 I t is also assumed th a t the l i f e q u a lity standards (the T’s) and the ecological standards CE's) have been s e t. The general design process w ill be as follows: 1. A d eta iled areal resource survey w ill be made. I t w ill include much more d e ta il than is usual, p a r t i c u l a r ly in bio lo g ical and botanical areas. 2. Actual c ity s i t e se lec tio n w ill be made w ithin the area. A c o st-b e n e fit format w ill be used. 3. The a c tiv ity mix w ill be decided upon and sized. Population w ill be sized. 4. C en tralizatio n , d e c en traliz a tio n , and scale w ill be tre a te d via a c o s t-b e n e fit format. 5. Absolute location w ill be determined for a l l a c t i v i t i e s . 6. A ctivity location w ill be used to determine the routing of tran sp o rta tio n systems. The above process is depicted in the flow chart in Figure 13. Some Specific Problems This section w ill discuss a few minor problems and make several decisions in areas re la tiv e to the an a ly sis. Assigning Costs and Benefits A v a rie ty of s itu a tio n s depend on the type of econ omic organization assumed fo r the c ity and i t s environs. A real C itv S ite General Survey/Inventory S ele ctio n Sizing A '■ a *i r \ r * 7i n Absolute C e n tra liz a tio n vs. Kajor A c tiv ity Location D e c e n tra liz a tio n Decisions i Transport I t e r a t e Design Figure 13. The General Approach to C ity Design 248 249 The s im p le s t breakdown would be p u b lic and p r i v a t e . P r i v a te i n t e r e s t s w i l l be assumed to be a s s o c ia te d w ith p r i v a te e n t e r p r i s e , which is c o n s tru c te d and o p e ra ted by e n t r e p r e n e u r s . For t h i s a n a l y s i s , i t w i l l be assumed th a t two c a te g o r ie s b e a r the c o sts and re c e iv e the b e n e f i t s . They a r e : 1. P riv a te p a r t i e s . These are the owners, e n t r e p re n e u rs , f in a n c e r s , e t c . They g e n e ra lly w i l l be assumed to have fin an c ed th e i n d u s t r i a l and commercial base of the c i t y and much o f the housing. 2. P u b lic . This w i l l be the people who w i l l liv e in the c i t y and t h e i r government. The p u b lic w i l l be assumed to have o b ta in e d fin a n c in g f o r p u b lic f a c i l i t i e s v i a g e n e ra l o b lig a tio n f in a n c in g . I t would o b v io u sly be p o s s ib le (in some c a s e s , n e c e ssa ry ) to develop o th e r c a t e g o r i e s , i f , fo r example, the c i t y were being developed by a p u b lic c o r p o ra tio n , or p o s s ib ly re g io n a l i n t e r e s t s must be co n sid ered in some c a s e s . P r iv a te is used in two ways which should be d i s t i n guished. F i r s t , " p r iv a t e " is used to d e s c rib e p r i v a t e l y owned a c t i v i t i e s , i . e . , i n d u s t r i e s , commercial and r e t a i l e s ta b lis h m e n ts , e t c . L a te r, in the s e c tio n on t r a n s p o r t , " p r i v a t e " i s used in the c o n v e n tio n a l fa sh io n to denote 250 tra n sp o rt by motor vehicles as d istin g u ish e d from public t r a n s i t . Prices of Commodities In a planned economy or a planned c i ty , i t is obvious th a t, in many cases, th ere w ill be l i t t l e or no com p e t itio n . What is to prevent the "planned monopolist" or o lig o p o lis t from obtaining monopoly p r o f it s or o lig o p o lit p r o f its ? One way would be p ric e c o n tro ls . This approach has never proven to be too popular in the United S ta te s. The only o th er fa c to r which would tend to control p rice s is the p ric e of the imported item s. Presumably, they have t h e i r o rig in in a com petitive so c ie ty ; thus, th e ir p rice at the new c ity is the com petitive p ric e plus tra n s p o rta tio n c o s ts, or p ' = p + tc . Thus, the lo c al entrepreneurs could expect to r e a liz e a retu rn above the normal retu rn on c a p i t a l o f q ^ tc j, where is the number of sa lab le items p ro duced. Presumably, i f deemed d e s ira b le , th is could be recovered v ia a tax. Ecological Approach Ecological costs are d i f f i c u l t to estim a te, but some r e la tiv e evaluations must be made for each p o ssib le s i t e . As s ta te d in Table I I , there are costs asso cia ted with the d ire c t in te rr u p tio n of food chains and costs asso ciated with the p o llu tio n . 251 A very sim ple approach would be to : 1. Attempt to determ ine the p ercen tag e of each type o f food chain d estro y e d , and 2. A ssess, as the c o s t, th a t amount o f money i t would take to reproduce elsew here an environment which would r e s to r e th e lo ss of each food chain. Very p ro b a b ly , unless a v i t a l food chain is s e r i ously inv o lv ed , no attem pt would be made to implement 2). I t serves only as a mechanism to e stim a te c o s ts . The second category mentioned above is th a t o f p o l lu ti o n . P o llu tio n has s e v e ra l adverse e f f e c t s ; the p r i n c i p a l of th e se a re : 1. I n te r r u p t io n of v ario u s food chains (as p er ab o v e ). 2. Adverse b io lo g ic a l e f f e c ts on human l i f e . 3. E s th e tic e f f e c t s (sm ells, appearance), and a r e l a t e d e f f e c t : 4. Loss of r e c r e a tio n a l o p p o r tu n itie s . S e le c tio n of A real Unit Size I t is n ec e ssa ry to sp e c ify an a r e a l u n it as th is u n it u n d e rlie s much o f the a n a ly s is . Very p ro b ab ly , the most p r a c t i c a l a r e a l u n it is the c i t y blo ck . (This does not n e c e s s a r ily imply a r e c ta n g u la r g r i d .) This is the case fo r s e v e ra l reaso n s; they are: 252 1. The b a s ic a re a l u n i t should be "human s i z e . " Thus, r e le v a n t d is ta n c e s should be r e l a t i v e l y s h o r t; i t should be a t l e a s t p o s s ib le to walk to most re q u ire d s e r v ic e s or s t o r e s . I f the a n a ly s is is to t r e a t th in g s on a human s c a l e , i t must be a w alkable s c a l e , i . e . , 500 to 1000 f e e t or l e s s . 2. The average c i t y block tends to occur about 12 tim es per m ile; t h i s r e s u l t s in a 44 0 -fo o t sq u a re . Thus, each square would c o n ta in fo u r or f iv e a c r e s . .Assuming ty p i c a l p o p u la tio n d e n s itie s (80 to 100 p e r a c r e ) , th is lead s to a manageable number o f a r e a l u n its f o r c i t i e s of 250,000 to 500,000 p eo p le. 3. Most, although obviously no t a l l , i n d u s t r i a l a c t i v i t i e s can be p laced on s ix to e ig h t a c re s . 4. Most p u b lic a c t i v i t i e s can be p la c e d on s i x - t o e i g h t - a c r e , or sm a lle r s i t e s . Thus, most a c t i v i t i e s could be p la c e d on a s i x - t o e i g h t- a c r e s i t e ; i t s t i l l leads to a "w alkable" s e t o f a r e a l u n its and a c o m p u tatio n ally manageable s e t o f a r e a l u n i t s which w i l l span any but the l a r g e s t c i t y . Thus, a r e a l u n i t s of about 500 to 650 f e e t p e r s id e w i l l be assumed. I f a Los A ngeles-type c i t y is assumed or i f th e re are to be e x te n siv e suburban a r e a s , o b v io u sly l a r g e r a r e a l u n i t s would have to be used in those a re a s . 253 Regional Resource Inventory I t is assumed th a t the general region in which the c ity is to be located has been se lec te d . I t is over th is area th a t the resource inventory and survey is to be made. This se c tio n w ill cover the resource inventory or survey which is the f i r s t step in lo catin g the c ity in the se le c te d region. The area resource survey covers the region on which the c i t y is to be lo cated . This w ill probably be a ra th e r large area r e la tiv e to the c i ty . It is assumed th a t p o lic y , or p o l i t i c s , has decreed the region; lo catio n w ithin the region is l e f t to a n a ly sis. I t has been previously stre s s e d th a t the ecological in te g r ity of the region must be m aintained, and i t must be m aintained over long periods of time. In other words, a se t of the ecological standards must be met. To assure t h i s , a very d e ta ile d resource inventory must be undertaken. The next sev eral paragraphs w ill cover a few of the b asic reasons and arguments which make th is resource inventory. The are a l resource survey must be complete in a fashion not u su ally considered. It is not s u f f i c ie n t to inventory the ores of a dozen m etals, note the area of a few lak es, the flow of h a lf dozen r iv e r s , and the q u a lity of the s o il in several areas. The t o t a l mix of l i f e - - p l a n t , 254 anim al, in s e c t- - a n d i t s r e l a t i o n to micro environments should be in v e s tig a te d . Long-term m eteo ro lo g ic al data should be in v e s tig a te d . For each re so u rc e , the whole p ro b lem o f reso u rce u t i l i z a t i o n r a t e s , resource tr a n s p o r ta tio n r a t e s , te c h n o lo g ic a l le v e ls and ex p e c ta tio n s should be i n v e s tig a t e d . I f we are to have any long run steady s t a t e , a l l o f the above--and more--must be done in d e t a i l and a t a high le v e l of s o p h is tic a tio n . One might be tempted to ask, "Why take a l l the tro u b le ? " The answer l i e s - - I t h i n k - - in r e a l i z i n g the n a tu re o f the g e n e tic system. The c h a ra c t e r i s t i c s of a l l l i f e , and each form of l i f e , from b a c te r ia to p lan k to n to micro organism s, a lg ae , i n s e c t s , worms, p l a n t s , t r e e s , f i s h , mammals, e t c . , are governed by a very complex communication system (from g en e ra tio n to g en e ra tio n ) . The genotypic pool of each g en e ra tio n o f every e n t i t y p o ssessed o f l i f e (and some where the issu e is in doubt, i . e . , v iru s e s ) is governed by a very complex message composed o f a w eighted m ixture of the messages of preceding g e n e ra tio n s . To go back te n g e n e ra tio n s , the c u rre n t mes sage is a m ixture of 1,000 messages. The im portant q u estio n is what kind o f m ixture? The "message s e t" th a t i s t r a n s m itte d each g e n e ra tio n of each e n t i t y is a fu n c tio n of the type of f i l t e r i n g the message s e t must go through. Thus, "messages" th a t " f i t " the environment are tra n s m itte d f a i r l y w e ll, those t h a t do not f i t , not as w e ll. The s e le c tio n is 255 by no means a b s o lu te . As a very sim ple--and human--example, a group o f humans t h r u s t in to a very cold environment might p re se rv e a genotype th a t produced what was deemed to be very comely females - -even though they were very p o o rly adapted to the low tem p eratu res. Thus, the g e n e tic system is a very slow, very con s e r v a tiv e and very thorough optim izing system . I t is seldom a b s o lu te - - and not s a t i s f i e d w ith " l o c a l ” maximums (or minimums). I t h a s, however, been o p e ra tiv e fo r a very long tim e. A la rg e p ercentage o f our a c t i v i t i e s involve se rio u s in te rv e n tio n s and tampering w ith the s e v e ra l m illio n i n t e r r e l a t e d g e n e tic systems - -about which we have l i t t l e or no knowledge. I t is p o s s ib le to take comfort in the f a c t th a t i t is f a i r l y c e r t a i n th a t the e a r t h 's ecology is f a i r l y s ta b le in the face of minor v a r ia tio n s in any of the q u a n t itie s th a t a f f e c t l i f e . (In f a c t , we undoubtedly have a s t a t e of s ta b le e q u ilib riu m , i . e . , small d istu rb a n c es in the value o f any v a r ia b le g en erate fo rces tending to r e s to r e the v a r ia b le to i t s i n i t i a l v a lu e .) In the face of la rg e v a r i a tio n s (induced by human a c t i v i t y o r o th e rw is e ) , the case is no t a t a l l as c l e a r . Thus, the reso u rce survey must cover the complete b i o l o g i c a l , chem ical, b a c t e r i o l o g i c a l , b o t a n i c a l , e t c . , reso u rces of the reg io n . 256 The Survey The process would s t a r t with the im position of a coordinate system over the area. A s e rie s of d e ta ile d s u r veys would follow. These surveys would cover the following c a te g o rie s : Topographical Geological B iological B otanical Hydrological M eteorological Seismic Economic Each of the above categories q u ite obviously con ta in s s u b c la s s ific a tio n s . Thus, the to p o lo g ica l category must contain inform ation on h e ig h ts, slopes and ra te s of change of slopes; geological w ill cover s o il chem istry, sub surface c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s , m inerals, loadbearing and s o ils inform ation, f a u lt lo c a tio n , e tc . Inventories of th is type have been proposed by 2 o th e rs, although u su a lly the c l a s s i f i c a t i o n is f a i r l y lim ited . McHarg, for example, includes the following c l a s s i f i c a t i o n s : 2 Ian L. McHarg, Design With Nature (Garden C ity, N. Y .: The Natural H istory P re ss, 1969). 257 Slope (g re a te r than 10%, between 2-1/2% and 10%, le s s than 2-1/2%) . Surface Drainage (stream s, la k e s , ponds, drainage ch an n els, absence o f d ra in a g e ). S o il Drainage ( s a l t w ater m arsh, b r a c k is h , swamp, poor a re a d ra in a g e , high w ater t a b l e , good d ra in a g e ). Bedrock Formation (poor (swamp), sands, c la y s , g r a v e ls , s h a le s , ro c k ). S u s c e p t i b i l i t y to E rosion (s lo p e s , m a te r ia l s ) . Land Values ($ 3 .5 Q /ft2 and up, $2.50 to $ 3 .5 0 / f t 2 , le s s than $ 2 .5 0 / f t 2) . H is to r ic Values ( h i s t o r i c landm arks, absence o f ) . Scenic Values (Scenic elem en ts, open areas w ith high sc en ic v a lu e s , urban areas w ith low sc e n ic v a lu e s ) . R ecreatio n Values (p u b lic open sp aces, i n s t i t u t i o n s , non-urban areas w ith high or low p o t e n t i a l ) . Water Values (la k e s , ponds, m arshes, strea m s, major a q u i f e r , w atersheds o f im portant stre a m s, secondary a q u if e r , urban s tr e a m s ) . F o re st Values (high q u a lity f o r e s t , m arshes, o ther f o r e s t s and m arshes, u n fo re ste d la n d s ). W ild life Values (b est q u a l i t y h a b i t a t s , medium q u a l i t y h a b i t a t s , poor h a b i t a t s ) . R e s id e n tia l Values (market value over $50,000, over $25,000 but under $50,000, under $25,000). 258 I n s titu t io n a l Values (h ig h est, interm ediate, and l e a s t ) . 3 The McHarg l i s t , while f a r from complete, does at le a s t contain some g eo lo g ical, b o ta n ic a l and b io lo g ic a l formation. Another c l a s s i f i c a t i o n used by N. L itc h fie ld consisted of (for undeveloped la n d ) : A griculture Land (good, average, below average). Environment (p o llu tio n high, average, low). R ecreational (re c re a tio n a l in urban, in open spaces, good la n d scap e), Natural (meadow, f o r e s t, bog).^ City S itin g I t is next necessary to s e le c t the s p e c if ic s i t e of the c ity . The c o s t-b e n e fit format w ill again be applied. This is done in Tables 12 and 13. As was previously noted, the c i ty is to be located in an area many times la rg e r than i t s own area. Thus, there is the problem of where in the general area to locate the c i t y . A c o s t-b e n e fit approach w ill be used. The b asic tra d e -o ff is a l te r n a te land use co sts. The purposes and assumptions asso c ia ted with the d e ta ile d trades are presented in Table 12. 3I b i d . , p. 37-38, ^ L itc h fie ld , "C ost-B enefit A n aly sis," p. 123-155. TABLE 12 CITY SITING CONSIDERATIONS C ost-B enefit Trade: General City S itin g The Basic Trade: A ltern ate Land Use Costs Purpose: To s e le c t one s i t e out of several p o ssib le s i t e s in the region. Assumptions: 1. Single group to whom costs and b e n e fits are assigned is "the c i t y . " 2 . Railhead or p o rt of entry to region is assumed. 3. Region assumed to be undeveloped or underdeveloped. That i t should c o n s is t la rg e ly of f o r e s t, meadows, a g r ic u ltu r e , p r a i r i e . 4. Settlem ents or small towns would not in te r f e r e with s i t e s e le c tio n process. R e s u lts : S election of a c ity s i t e . Notes: 259 TABLE 13 COST-BENEFITS, SITE SELECTION Costs B enefits Farmland removed from p roduction, Type 1, a c re s a Farmland removed from production, Type 2, ac re s, e tc . Forestland elim in ated , acres Meadowland and g rasslan d elim in ated , acres Brush, acres Swamps, a c re s, e tc . Land m odification costs^ T ransportation system to s i t e from: Regional tra n s p o rt systems Port o f entry Loss of re c re a tio n a l s i t e s Ecological co stsc Food chain in te rru p tio n s P o llu tio n Views, v is ta s destroyed Urban land created R esid en tial Commercial I n d u s tr ia l Parking "Niches'1 gained for human occupancy Number of dwellings Number of jobs (at) Life Q uality Standard i Proxim ity to re c re a tio n a l s i t e s j Creation or preemption of views, v is ta s aA ll land costs must include land fo r tra n s p o rta tio n system from s i t e to boundaries of region. F illin g of swamps, grading and le v e lin g , c u ttin g f o r e s ts , e tc . £ See d isc u ssio n , page 300. 260 261 Major A c tiv ity S e le c tio n and P re lim in a ry S izin g This s e c tio n w i l l use the r e s u l t s of th e reso u rce su rv ey , along w ith th e e c o lo g ic a l and l i f e q u a l i t y s t a n d a rd s , to , in a very rough fa sh io n : 1. S e le c t and s iz e th e prim ary o r major a c t i v i t i e s which w i l l occur w ith in th e c i t y . 2. Size the p o p u la tio n of the c i t y . There w i l l be i n t e r a c t i o n between the p o p u la tio n s iz in g and the a c t i v i t y mix s i z i n g . Both w i l l i n t e r a c t w ith th e L ife Q u a lity Standards and the E co lo g ical S ta n d a rd s. This is i l l u s t r a t e d p i c t o r i a l l y in Figure 14. D e f in itio n Consider the i t h a c t i v i t y . The in p u ts to the i a c t i v i t y w ill be a v e c to r , T \; i t s o u tp u ts w i l l be C L . They can be r e l a t e d by a m a trix ; th u s , 0^ = With any given le v e l o f in p u t and o u tp u t, i t w i l l be assumed th a t c a p i t a l c o s ts fo r the a c t i v i t y can be computed, C j ( I , 0 ) , o p e ra tin g c o s ts e s tim a te d , Cq CI»0)- G e n e ra lly , i t w i l l be p o s s i b le to b reak Cq down f u r t h e r in to such c a te g o rie s as t r a n s p o r t a t i o n c o sts fo r in p u ts CTj and o u tp u ts CTq , p o l l u ti o n abatem ent c o s ts environm ental damage c o s ts and tax es C ^ . These symbols and terms w i l l be used throughout the rem ainder of t h i s document. One f u r t h e r p o in t should be made about the in p u ts and o u tp u ts . The in p u ts and o u tp u ts here mean a l l in p u ts Areal/Total Resource Inventory Ecological and life Quality Standards Figure 14 Activity Mix and Sizing Permissible Population J p- City Sizing 262 263 and a l l o u tp u ts . Thus, p o llu te d a i r , contam inated w a te r, and s o l i d w aste are OUTPUTS! Major A c tiv ity S e le c tio n F i r s t , the reso u rce in v en to ry ( i n c l u d i n g both q u a l ity and q u a n tity ) w i l l d efin e some b a s ic i n d u s t r i e s . T y p ic a lly , m in e ra ls, crop p ro d u ctio n r a t e s , and energy a v a ila b le would f ix the mix of p o s s ib le a c t i v i t i e s . Thus, a good q u a l ity of iro n ore and lo c a l coal would make a s t e e l in d u s try a li k e l y c a n d id a te . C e rtain clays would make b r ic k f a c t o r ie s p o s s i b le , o i l would imply o i l r e f i n e r ie s and petrochem ical f a c i l i t i e s . This w ill give a l i s t o f p o s s ib le a c t i v i t i e s . The p o s s ib le a c t i v i t i e s w ill be reduced by se v e ra l c o n s id e r a ti o n s : 1. The co st a t the lo c a l p o rt of en try or ra ilh e a d o f the o u tp u t of the a c t i v i t y . I f the p r ic e of 0^ is le s s a t the p o r t of e n try or r a ilh e a d than from a c t i v i t y i , the a c t i v i t y is not v ia b le . 2. The c o st o f C K a t the p o rt of e n try or r a i l heads o f e x t e r io r c i t i e s or c o u n trie s should be compared w ith the p r ic e of C K shipped to t h e i r m arkets. I f the co st o f C K a f t e r shipment is l e s s , an export market e x i s t s . If n o t, lo c a l needs w ill s iz e the a c t i v i t y . 3. The u n d esired o u tp u ts , components of 0^, must also be co n sid ered . The e f f e c t s o f th ese components on 264 the environment and on the l i f e q u a lity standards should be roughly computed. A c tiv itie s which p resen t serious problems should be re in v e s tig a te d and e ith e r elim inated or costed out with adequate abatement equipment. This should in d ic a te some of the b asic parameters which must be used to estim ate population to be determined. Thus, the product mix and qu an tity should be known, the number and mix of jobs, the incomes, e tc . On a prelim inary b a s is , commercial, a d m in istra tiv e , and serv ice fig u res could be estim ated from a very simple economic base model. L ate r, i t might be advisable to go to an input-output approach to b e t te r estim ate the le v el of f in a l demands which can be f u l f i l l e d . A c tiv ity Sizing In the siz in g of the a c t i v i t y , the appropriate pop u la tio n must be known. As a f i r s t estim ate, the required p opulation would be s u f f i c i e n t . This, however, must be i t e r a t e d a f te r prelim inary population siz in g has been accomplished. B a sic ally , the sizin g depends on the q u an tity of any output req u ired . This, in tu rn , depends on population, l i f e and ecological q u a lity standards. Thus, for a c tiv i ty i : o L = f C n ,F ,e ) 265 where: N is p o p u la tio n . The r*s e n te r in two ways: 1. As re q u ire d le v e ls of consumption. 2. As lim its on environm ental d eg rad a tio n . N a tu ra lly , in the area of the T^'s and the E i , t h i s must be done fo r the summation of a l l a c t i v i t i e s . Thus, each a c t i v i t y would probably f i r s t be s e t a t i t s maximum s iz e and then reduced when a l l a c t i v i t i e s are considered (the second i t e r a t i o n ) . P opulation Sizing P opulation s iz in g can proceed in two s te p s : 1. Some very general lim its can be computed, e . g . , w ate r, w aste, e t c . These lim its cannot be avoided. 2. The fig u re s developed in the a c t i v i t y s iz in g can be used to r e f in e e s tim a te s . General Limits One o f the problems which must be s e t t l e d f a i r l y e a rly in the design process is c i t y p o p u la tio n . There are a number of lim i t a t i o n s on p o p u la tio n , none of which appear to be r e a l l y a b s o lu te . S ev eral, however, re p re s e n t r a th e r s i g n i f i c a n t and c o s tly measures which should be discu ssed a t the o n se t. The f i r s t major lim ita tio n is probably w ater. I t can be imported over r a th e r long d is ta n c e s , u s u a lly ; how e v e r, a t r a th e r s i g n i f i c a n t c o s t. Thus, p er c a p ita w ater 266 costs w ill exhibit a step function appearance when the point is reached where water must be imported. A number of other commodities exhibit sim ila r phen omena. Thus, up to some le v e l, local food production is adequate. Beyond th is p o in t, i t w ill be necessary to import food. (This tends to be p a r tic u la r ly tru e of truck garden products.) A sim ilar phenomenon occurs with waste disposal problems. Up to some level of population, r e la tiv e ly simple systems aTe adequate, e . g . , cesspools, river-ocean dumping. Beyond th is p o in t, i t is necessary to have e la b orate sewage treatment p la n ts . Thus, the costs (per capita) could be p lo tte d vs. population. Figure IS represents such a graph. They should follow the typical increasing, constant, and decreas ing returns to scale. As far as costs alone are concerned, the graph i n dicates th at population should be kept below or i n creased beyond N^. Obviously, in an actual case, i t would be necessary to use a la rg er number of commodities and s e r vices than in the simple example given. Next, i t is necessary to look at the b en e fits that re s u lt from population. At c e rta in increasing lev els of population, i t becomes possible to support a v a rie ty of a c t i v i t i e s ; thus, say, at N^, i t becomes p o ssib le to •H Population Figure 15. Per Capita Costs of Services vs. Population 268 support a lo c a l c o lle g e ; a t N2 » a p u b lic h a l l ; at N^, an o rc h e s tra ; at N^, a u n iv e r s i ty ; a t Ng, a lo c a l s t e e l p l a n t , at Ng, a major re se a rc h f a c i l i t y , e tc . I t is next n ecessary to compute, or a t le a s t e s t i m ate, b e n e f i t s . F i r s t , the "n o n -ed u catio n a l" a c t i v i t i e s w ill be reviewed. (The ed u c a tio n a l a c t i v i t i e s are a s p e c ia l ca se--an d a very c r i t i c a l one.) The only num erically a v a i l able measure is the revenue garnered by the a c t i v i t y (per c a p i t a ) . This approach u n d erestim a tes the b e n e f its because i t ignores the value o f having the d iv e r s i ty of people in the community and because i t ignores the very re a l p o s s i b i l i t y o f s y n e r g is tic e f f e c t s . Locating A c t i v i t i e s , General This s e c tio n w i l l discuss the problems a s so c ia te d w ith lo c a tin g the a c t i v i t i e s w ith in the c i t y . To r e c a p i t u l a t e , a t th i s p o in t, the c ity s i t e w ith in a reg io n has been s e le c te d , i t s approximate s iz e s e le c te d , and i t s a c t i v i t y mix s e le c te d and i t s a c t i v i t i e s s iz e d . I t remains to lo c a te the given mix of a c t i v i t i e s , both p u b lic and p r i v a t e , r e l a t i v e to each o th e r and r e l a tiv e to s p e c ia l n a t u r a l or given man-made f e a t u r e s , under a v a r i e t y of c o n s t r a i n t s , in such a way th a t c a p ita l and o p e ra tin g co sts are minimized. 269 Like most r e a l problem s, t h i s one adm its of no n e a t clo sed -fo rm s o l u t i o n . I n s te a d , a s e r i e s o f approxim a tio n s and s im p l i f i c a t i o n s w ill have to be made. The planned p o p u la tio n and i t s c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s and the re so u rc e endowment of the re g io n w i l l determ ine th e a c t i v i t y mix and s iz e the a c t i v i t i e s . Beyond t h i s , th e re are s e v e r a l b a s ic economic fo rc e s which w i l l shape o r s t r u c tu r e the c i t y . They are: Resource lo c a tio n The lo c a tio n of s p e c ia l f e a tu r e s T ra n sp o rt c o s ts The optimum s c a le o f an a c t i v i t y Environm ental and e c o lo g ic a l c o s ts A d i r e c t approach would be to attem p t to co n sid e r a l l arrangem ents o f a l l a c t i v i t i e s of v a rio u s s c a le s in the a r e a l u n i t s in to which the c i t y is d iv id e d . This is c l e a r l y im p o s sib le , c o m p u ta tio n a lly . Thus, means to reduce the problem to manageable p ro p o rtio n s must be sought. The s p e c i f i c approach w i l l be to : 1. Allow a l l " s e l f - lo c a tin g " a c t i v i t i e s to s i t e th e m s e lv e s . 2. Perform the s c a l e - c e n t r a l i z a t i o n - d e c e n t r a l i z a - t i o n c o s t - b e n e f i t t r a d e - o f f s in descending o rd e r of com pati b i l i t y o f in p u ts (I) w ith o u tp u ts (0) of s e l f - l o c a t i n g a c t i v i t i e s . 270 3. As soon as an a c t i v i t y is s i t e d , add i t s 0 to th a t of previous outputs of p rev io u sly s i t e d a c t i v i t i e s . 4. Consider s e p a r a te ly , via a c o s t-b e n e f it t r a d e o ff, s p e c ia l problems a s so c ia te d with some in d iv id u a lly small but ubiquitous a c t i v i t i e s ( r e s i d e n t i a l , commercial). 5. Size and shape the tra n s p o rta tio n system. The process is i t e r a t i v e . Thus, when 5) has been completed, step s 1) through 5) should be repeated a t le a s t once. This i s , obviously, not a complete s o lu tio n to the problem, which would appear to be unsolvable. However, i t w ill be necessary to design a number of c i t i e s in the next th ree to four decades, and an incomplete or in eleg a n t tool is b e t t e r than guesswork or the a r c h i t e c t 's "h e lic o p te r d e sig n ." The process is i l l u s t r a t e d in Figure 16. The s p e c if ic d ec isio n on the lo c a tio n of any a c t i v ity in the c i t y w ill depend on a c o s t-b e n e fit an aly sis of each p r iv a te and p u b lic a c t i v i t y . Typical costs and bene f i t s of each are summarized in Tables 15 and 1 6 .5 As p rev io u sly noted, public and p r iv a te costs and b e n e f its are se p a rate d . The l a s t step is to sum the to t a l p r iv a te and p u b lic b e n e fits and c o s ts. ^Obviously, these ta b le s are in d ic a tiv e and not i n tended to be exh au stiv e. In p r a c t ic e , a d e ta ile d income flow sh eet would be req u ired p er a c tiv i ty . S ite je lf - lo c a tin g A c ti v itie s C o st-E e n efit Trades cf C e n tra liz a tio n / D ec e n tra liz a tio n /S c a le (Sequentially) A ddition of Output of Each S ited A c tiv ity of T otal E X I t e r a t e C ost-B enefit Trades of Special A c tiv itie s Iransport System Figure 16. General L ocational Analysis 272 I f both are g re a te r than zero, the a c tiv ity has a place in the c ity ; i f both are n eg ativ e, i t does not. Mixed cases would have to be in v e s tig a te d se p a ra te ly . S itin g of ’’S e lf “Locating" A c tiv itie s There w ill be a small number of a c t i v i t i e s which must, by th e ir n a tu re , be both ab solutely located and cen tr a li z e d . These would include a c t i v i t i e s which are depen dent on c ity s k i l l s , serv ices and f a c i l i t i e s (p a rtic u la rly w eight-losing in d u s trie s , and some w eight-gaining a c t i v i t i e s ) and imported resources or any type of headquarters a c tiv ity which is by d e fin itio n c e n tra liz e d and, due to business needs, located in or near the c e n tra l business d i s t r i c t . There is l i t t l e th a t a c o s t-b e n e fit analysis can do in e ith e r case. In the f i r s t case, tra n sp o rt cost would grow p ast the ra ilh e a d or p o rt of entry (where a second mode of tra n s p o rt and transshipm ent is r e q u ir e d ) . In the l a t t e r case, c e n tr a liz a tio n and lo c a tio n are, in a sense, by d e f i n i t i o n . I t should be noted th a t most of the w eight-losing in d u s trie s mentioned above are primary in d u s trie s ; thus, th e ir outputs, C K , serve, for the most p a r t, as inputs to secondary in d u s trie s . In a sense, these a c t i v i t i e s w ill serve as a base in lo c atin g many o ther a c t i v i t i e s in the c ity . 273 Overview of C e n tra liz a tio n -D e c e n tra liz a tio n Scale Trade-Offs The c e n tr a liz a t io n - d e c e n tr a liz a ti o n - s c a le tr a d e -o f f compares the costs and b e n e fits of c e n tr a liz e d and decen t r a l i z e d a c t i v i t i e s . In so doing, the scale of an a c tiv i ty must be considered. The t r a d e - o f f is the fa m ilia r one between tra n s p o rt costs of fa c to rs and commodities. G enerally, w eight-gaining a c t i v i t i e s or commercial a c t i v i t e s are near to the f in a l consumer; w eig h t-lo sin g a c t i v i t i e s have le ss need to be. Scale e n te rs because, even i f input tra n s p o rt costs were zero, i t might not be f e a s ib le to have such an a c t i v i t y adjacent to every consumer. (An extreme example might be a n itr o g e n -f ix in g p l a n t .) The problem w ill be fu rth e r com plicated by the i n tro d u c tio n of environm ental and e c o lo g ic al c o s ts . One of the c l e a r e s t ways to see the c e n t r a l i z a t i o n - d e c e n tr a liz a tio n - s c a le tr a d e - o f fs is g ra p h ic a lly . For s im p lic ity , the fig u re s w ill be drawn for costs only. The long-run average co st curve of a c t i v i t y is p lo tt e d vs. production in Figure 17. If i t is known th a t ^iR product w ill be re q u ire d , i t may be produced c e n tr a lly a t the co st corresponding to CKR or at two f a c i l i t i e s , each producing 0iR/ 2 , or at th ree f a c i l i t i e s , each producing 0^R/3 , e tc . I t is assumed th a t , i f th ere are k f a c i l i t i e s , they w ill be d e c e n tra liz e d , i . e . , lo cated Jj 0 1 o u 1 - 1 < l) > c * 1 c o Output Figure 17. Long-Run Averoge Cost Curve. A c tiv ity i 275 throughout the c ity . Next, look at Figure 18, where the abscissa has been reversed, i . e . , at the l e f t is one large f a c i l i t y , the 2 out to the 8. Costs are s t i l l on the v e r tic a l axis. Note the costs p lo tte d are s t r i c t l y costs to the entrepreneur. On the same fig u re , the cost of tran sp o rtin g a l l inputs (except people) is added (CTI). Then, the cost of shipping outputs CTO is also p lo tte d (shipment to another c ity ) . F inally, the abatement costs and taxes must be added i n . ' The to ta l cost curve tends to indicate th at one or two plants re s u lt in minimum costs to the firm. Now, i t is necessary to consider the pub lic. F ig ure 19 does th is . F ir s t, the cost of tran sp o rtin g the people to the p la n t is p lo tte d . Then, c ity revenues for a c tiv ity N are p lo tte d ; f in a lly , city services required are p lo tte d . Public good in th is hypothetical case appears to favor six to eight sm aller a c t i v i t i e s . (Note, however, th a t CTI for people is the decisive facto r in th is bias; i f a f l a t t e r CTI curve was to replace th a t used above, the public good would also favor the la rg e r f a c i l i t y . The curve drawn was assumed to be associated with automotive tra n sp o rta tio n ; presumably, mass t r a n s i t should f la tt e n people CTI out somewhat.) Costs (to Firm) Total Costs LRAC CTO 2 1 n r> 6 7 S Number of A c tiv itie s Figure 18. Costs, P riv a te A ctiv ity 276 .Total Costs to Public C ity Services Required by A c tiv ity t a l Costs (people only) i 3 4 5 S Number of A c ti v itie s Figure 19. Costs, Public A ctiv ity 277 278 Symbolic Formation The general problem posed by c e n tra liz a tio n -d e c e n - t r a l i z a t i o n - s c a l e tra d e -o ffs can be s ta te d as follows: Given a mix of a c t i v i t i e s , i = 1...M , of various sizes producing various outputs C K and req u irin g various in p u ts, there w ill be a v a rie ty of costs asso ciated with each a c t i v i t y , wages, costs of m a te ria ls , r e n t, tax es, e tc . The c a p ita l costs of a c tiv i ty i w ill be taken to be: coi ■ qcoiip. Generally, i t w ill be assumed th a t the a c tiv i ty must pay retu rn s on c a p ita l and repay i t in a period of time commen su ra te with the expected l i f e of the f a c i l i t y . The next most b asic is the cost of production: ci - fi ( V 7i)- (This is e s s e n tia lly the long-run average cost curve of a firm , and n a tu ra lly depends on s c a le .) Now, tra n s p o rta tio n costs are: CTI. = costs of tra n s p o rta tio n of inputs to the firm. CTO. = costs of tra n s p o rta tio n of outputs to 1 the firm. Next, the ph y sical e ffe c ts of the 0^ on the environ ment must be determined. Thus, the l i f e q u a lity standards which exert influences over considerable areas: r j " ^i ^ i ’ d ista n c e s, abatement) and the ecological standard: 279 E- = d is ta n c e s , abatem ent). J X I Comparison of the F. and E. w ith the stan d ard s w ill 3 3 le ad to abatement c o s ts : CABT\ (F, F in a lly , the c i t y w i l l be assumed to c o l l e c t p r o p e r ty ta x e s , CTX^. There are p u b lic co sts a s s o c ia te d w ith a c t i v i t y A^. Thus, the employees pay p a r t o f CTI^ in the course of t h e i r t r i p to work. Although the p u b lic c o l le c ts ta x e s , i t also pro v id es s e rv ic e s to CPS^ to a c t i v i t y i . To the le v e l th a t p o llu t io n is not ab a ted , the p u b lic s u f f e r s the co st of p o llu t io n damage CPDi due to a c t i v i t y A^. Thus, the t o t a l problem comes down to : S elect a s e t of lo c a tio n s fo r a c t i v i t y A^ (i = l...M ) ^ such th a t the t o t a l co sts (CT^) to the firm are minimized. Min CTi = Ci + CT^ + C TC M + CABTi + C TX ^^ and the t o t a l p u b lic co sts are minimized. Min CTPi = CT^ (people) + CPSi + C PD ^^ - CTX± C le a rly , th e re is no r e a l l y g en eral s o lu tio n to a problem of th i s n a tu re . The d i r e c t approach would compare a l l of the co sts fo r a l l p o s s ib le arrangements of the M a c t i v i t y in the N a re a l u n its o f the c i t y . Even computer technology does not perm it th is amount of com putation. ^There may be more than one a c t i v i t y of the same kind. This depends on s c a le . 280 C e n tr a liz a tio n v s. D e c e n tra liz a tio n C o st-B en efit Tables This s e c tio n p re s e n ts the c o s t- b e n e f it comparison t a b l e s . Table 14 d efin es the tr a d e - o f f s fo r p u b lic and p r iv a te a c t i v i t i e s , Tables 15 and 16 p re s e n t the d e t a i l s o f the co sts and b e n e f i t s . The c e n t r a l i z a t i o n - d e c e n t r a l i z a t i o n c o s t- b e n e f it a n a ly s is should be done in a p a r t i c u l a r sequence. The o rd er w ill be defined by the degree to which t h e i r in p u ts ( I j) match or are a su b se t of the outputs (Ch) o f the sum o f the p re v io u sly a b s o lu te ly lo c a te d a c t i v i t i e s . Thus, an a c t i v i t y w ith a 99 p er cent match between 1^ and Oj would be done p r i o r to one w ith a 95 per cent match between 1^ and O j. As soon as an a c t i v i t y is lo c a te d , i t s C K are added to the aggregated Ch of p re v io u sly lo c a te d a c t i v i t i e s . I t should be noted th a t the c o s t- b e n e f it format p re s e n te d here should be perform ed fo r s e v e ra l s c a le s of each a c t i v i t y . This is in e f f e c t drawing the curves i l l u s t r a t e d in Figures 18 and 19. Cost Estim ates ( F i r s t I t e r a t i o n ) The c o s t- b e n e f its summarized in Tables 15 and 16 a re somewhat more d i f f i c u l t to estim a te than might be expected. Thus, i t is d i f f i c u l t to estim a te the t r a n s p o r t a t i o n co sts when th e re is no e x is tin g t r a n s p o r t. This s e c tio n w ill d is c u s s , in a pragm atic fa s h io n , some of the THE COST-BENEFIT PURPOSE: THE BASIC TRADE: DEFINITIONS: ASSUMPTIONS: TABLE 14 ASSUMPTIONS AND PURPOSE FOR CENTRALIZATION, DECENTRALIZATION AND SCALE TRADE-OFFS TRADE-OFF: C e n tra liz a tio n , d e c e n tr a liz a tio n , scale To determine which p u b lic and p riv a te a c t i v i t i e s should be c e n tra liz e d or d e c en tralize d C en tralize cost savings (s c a le ), lower tra n s p o rta tio n c o s ts, lower abatement costs ( i f re q u ire d ), up convenience, tra n s p o rt costs to employees T ransportation costs include a l l costs asso ciated w ith bringing to the a c tiv i ty and a l l Oi to i t s f in a l lo c a tio n . This includes people, m a te ria ls , w ater, e l e c t r i c i t y , e tc . Long-run average cost curves have the usual M U" shape. K ) 00 TABLE 15 PUBLIC ACTIVITY, CENTRALIZATION VS. DECENTRALIZATION AND SCALE COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS P riv a te Costs Public Costs Cii (Ti,Oi) C apital cost of e s t a b l i s h ing a c t i v i t y i . In the d ec e n tra liz e d case, there w ill be k a c t i v i t i e s engaged in a c tiv i ty i . Each is assumed to use equal amounts o f c a p ita l. Note th a t: | kcik - CI i * This cost w ill be assumed to be taken care of by a bond. The bond w ill be paid o f f v ia a sinking fund approach; th u s, each year: Cji/N, where N is the bonding p erio d . Each y ear, in te r e s t has to be paid on the whole amount: C l i r j . ( r i is in t e r e s t ra te borne by the bond.) Thus, y early costs are: C n/N + C j i r j . O ffs e ttin g some of th is cost is the i n t e r e s t drawn by the s in k ing fund a f t e r t y ears. Thus, the in t e r e s t drawn in the t t h year i s : j = t - l rC i r ( i * rP N' j where r m r £ m “ is the market i n t e r e s t in year t . 282 TABLE 1 5 - - c o n tin u e d P r i v a t e Costs P u b lic Costs Hence, the t o t a l p u b lic co sts in year t a r e : C0i (Ti»^i) = a c tiv ity operating c o s ts. These include a number of costs which have a bearing on the c e n tr a liz a tio n , d e c e n tra liz a tio n , and sc ale tr a d e - o f f s tu d ie s . These costs are: CTI^ = Costs of tra n s p o rtin g inputs I t w ill be assumed th a t these costs are t o t a l l y paid for by the p u b lic . (Labor, which u su a lly tra n s p o rts i t s e l f , is p a rt of the p u b lic .) CTCL = costs of tra n sp o rtin g outputs of a c t i v i t y i . (In most c a ses, th is is minimal.) Exceptions are muni c ip a l w ater and power f a c i l i t i e s . In any case, a l l costs w ill be assumed to be p u b lic ly paid. CABT- = Costs of abating p o llu tio n re s u ltin g from a c t i v i t y i . This cost is usually borne by the p u b lic . to a c tiv ity i . 283 TABLE 1 5 - - c o n tin u e d P r i v a t e Costs ( l - 6i)CED = fra c tio n of costs of e n v i ronmental damage borne p r iv a te ly . ¥(TPUCi) = fra c tio n of t o t a l costs of a c tiv i ty i borne by p riv a te s e c to r. Cost Sum of a l l p riv a te costs asso ciated with p u b lic a c tiv ity i : TPVCi = 'PTPUC^ + ( l - 6i )CEDi These costs are a l l on a yearly b a s is ; hence, they must be discounted. P r i vate income streams w ill be discounted P u b lic C osts This cost can be a strong function of c e n tr a liz a tio n -d e c e n tra liz a tio n . The b a sic trade is : D ecentralized f a c i l i tie s are le ss lik e ly to produce exces siv e values of p o llu tio n but they are probably more expensive to abate. CED^ = Cost of environmental damage due to unabated p o llu ta n ts from a c tiv i ty i . 6^CED^ = fra c tio n of cost borne by p u b lic . Summary Sum of a l l p u b lic costs asso ciated with public a c t i v i t y i: TPuci = ci (t) + c o i cri D’i ) + CTI. + CTC^ + CABTi + Si CEDi These are annual c o s ts; th u s, they must be discounted. As they are public c o s ts , they w ill be discounted in a 284 TABLE 1 5 - -c o n tin u e d P r i v a t e C osts P u b lic Costs in the conventional fashion; thus, the present value o f the t o t a l annual costs i. s i N TPVC-(t) PVfTPVC.) = I ------- t= l (1+r) r = the i n t e r e s t r a te . d if fe re n t fashion. The a lte r n a te s e le c tio n , a modified time s c a le , was d i s cussed in Chapter IV. Thus, the p resen t value of the p ublic costs fo r a c t i v i t y i i s : N TPUC* (t) PV (TPUC-) = I ------- t= i u + n ) 1 T = ict, where t=1.0 (k may be a con s t a n t , or a function of tim e), t = re a l tim e, and T is modified time. P riv a te B enefits (l-w^)VBSi = fra c tio n of b e n e fits from p u b lic a c tiv i ty i obtained by p r i vate a c t i v i t i e s . Public B enefits VBS^ = value of se rv ic e performed by p u b lic a c tiv i ty i . w^VBS^ = fra c tio n of value of b e n e fits received from p u b lic a c t i v i t y i re ta in e d by the p u b lic . 1.0 Income r e la te d b e n e f its . The t o t a l i n come from a c tiv i ty i is Yi. Some p a rt of th is may be considered to be a bene f i t , namely, th a t p a rt of Yi in excess o f Yj where Yj is the income obtained by tne next lowest income producing 285 TABLE 15- - c o n tin u e d P r i v a t e B e n e f its PVB(t) = (l-t-’i)VBS per year. This mu; be discounted. This b e n e fit may w ell o u tliv e any p a r tic u la r p riv a te a c t i v ity ; th u s, i t must be discounted in the fashion of a public a c tiv i ty . N PVB- (t) PVB • = PV(PVB.(tn = I ----- 1 1 t= l (1+r) 1 T = < t, where t ■ re a l tim e, and k = 1 . 0, a constant or a function of tim e. r = i n t e r e s t r a te . P u b lic B e n e f its a c t i v i t y . This fra c tio n w ill be enoted »iYi- M (<f>Y j_) where M is an operator r e p re s e n t ing a re a lly d is trib u te d m u ltip lie r e f f e c t s . PUBi Ct) = VBSi + 4 > i Y± + M C < J)Y i ] PVUP PUB-(t) Cl+t) T = Kt, where t = re a l tim e, and k = 1.0, a constant or a function of time. r = i n t e r e s t r a te . 286 TABLE 16 PRIVATE ACTIVITY, CENTRALIZATION VS. DECENTRALIZATION AND SCALE COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS P riv a te Costs Public Costs ci i ( I i ^ i ) = C apital costs of e s t a b l i s h ing a c t i v i t y i . In d e c e n tra liz e d case, there w ill be k e n te rp ris e s engaged in a c tiv i ty i . Each w ill be assumed to produce 0^/k. The c a p ita l cost for a c t i v i t y i occurs over a sh o rt period of time. Most o f the c a p ita l costs are financed. Thus, i t w ill be tre a te d as a bond on which i n t e r e s t is paid and C n/N repaid or s e t aside for repayment each year. The exact form of the y early cost would be determined by the arrangements fo r repayment. For s im p lic ity , i t w ill be assumed th a t: C. - 11 N I t= l C- • 11 N (to r + ci i N A C ii(i*l i » 0l) = in crease in c a p ita l required for p u b lic serv ice 1 to sup p o rt a c t i v i t y i . Public se rv ic es are of M types. Thus, 1 = 1 ...H . The cost p er year fo r serv ice 1 i s : CPSi (t) = ACi l N - I . t= l Cil-> N A C r + i l N As there are M p u b lic s e rv ic e s , the t o t a l y early cost to support a c tiv i ty i i s : l=m CTPS(t) = Y CPS,(t) 1=1 1 where r is the i n t e r e s t ra te and N is the repayment p erio d . Total y early p riv a te costs w ill be discounted in the conventional fashion fo r p riv a te e n t e r p r i s e s . ro 00 --j TABLE 1 6 - -c o n tin u e d P r i v a t e Costs C o i(Ii^ i) = Operating c o s ts. These w ill include a number of costs which are re le v a n t to the c e n tr a liz a tio n vs. d e c e n tra liz a tio n sc a le tr a d e -o f fs . They w ill be broken out se p a ra te ly As b efo re, in the dec t r a l i z e d case, they r e f e r to 0^/k. The re le v a n t costs are: CTIi = cost of tra n sp o rtin g inputs of a c t i v i t y i (d e c e n tra liz e d , I^/k) a^CTI^ = the fra c tio n of CTI^ paid by the firm . U sually, a firm does not pay cost of tra n sp o rtin g labor (d ece n traliz ed I / k ) . CTOi = costs of tra n sp o rtin g output of a c tiv i ty i (d e c e n tra liz e d , 0 / k ) . B^CTOi = f ra c tio n of costs of t r a n s p o rtin g output of a c tiv i ty i (d e c e n tra liz e d , 0 / k ) . NOTE: Both of the tra n s p o rt costs are in p a rt dependent on the existence of a tra n s p o rt system. At th is p o in t, the tra n s p o rt system has not been designed. P u b lic Costs The c a lc u la tio n must be done fo r the c e n tra liz e d and d e c e n tra liz e d case. C0l ( i , I i O i ) = change in p ublic s e r vice operating costs 1 supporting a c tiv i ty i . This must be summed over the M p u b lic se rv ic e a c t i v i t i e s ; th u s, the to ta l is : 1=M A C „ = I A C„, 0 i i i o 1 As w ith the c a p ita l c o s ts , th is must be computed fo r the c e n tra liz e d and d e c en tra liz e d cases. (l-a i)C T Ii i s u su a lly shared by the p u b lic and the a c tiv ity providing the f a c to r s . The exception is labor. Then, the cost of tra n s p o rtin g labor to a c tiv i ty i w ill be taken to be a p u b lic co st; th is w ill be some f r a c tio n of (l-a)CTI^ = X(l-a)CTIi . 288 TABLE P r i v a t e Costs (NOTE: contd) Thus, i t w ill be n eces sary to introduce some approximations. A fter c e n tr a liz a tio n and absolute lo c a tio n have been accomplished, a t r a n s p o rt system can be designed. At th is p o in t, a second i t e r a t i o n is necessary. Other re le v a n t costs are: CABT^ = co st of abating p o llu tio n from a c t i v i t y i . CABT^ = f ra c tio n of cost of abating p o llu tio n produced by a c tiv i ty i . NOTE: There are s u b s ta n tia l d iffe re n ce s in th is case between the c e n tra liz e d and d e c e n tra liz e d case. The e ffe c ts of p o llu ta n ts decrease over d istance (or a re a ). Thus, a c e n tra liz e d a c t i v i t y i , combined with other a c t i v i t i e s , could pose a more serious problem to meeting the l i f e q u a lity stan d ard s, r^ , and the ecological sta n d ard s, F i . However, a c e n tra liz e d f a c i l i t y may well be less expensive to abate than a p u b lic f a c i l i t y . - -c o n tin u e d P u b lic Costs (l-Bi)CTOi, the cost of tra n sp o rtin g o utput, w ill be borne in some cases p u b lic ly , in other cases, by two a c t i v i t i e s . Thus, i f a c tiv i ty i is a com m ercial establishm ent, a l l of (l-Bi)CTO^ w ill be p u b lic ly borne. I f i is an in d u s tr ia l a c t i v i t y , none w ill be pub l i c l y borne. (1-YjjCABTi = fra c tio n of cost abating not borne by a c t i v i t y i . Thus, p a rt of the cost o f providing n a tu ra l gas fo r the power in d u stry could well be borne p u b lic ly . 289 TABLE 16 - -c o n tin u e d P r i v a te Costs CED^ = cost of environmental damage caused by the unabated a c t i v i t i e s of i . S^CED^ = fra c tio n of environmental damage costs borne by a c t i v i t y i . These costs are a sso cia ted with two th in g s . They a r e : 1. Costs of the e f f e c ts of un abated p o llu tio n . Includes damage to s tr u c t u r e s , equipment, h ea lth damage, e tc . 2. Costs a sso cia ted with damage to or d e s tru c tio n of segments of the environment asso ciated with a r t i s t i c , e s th e ti c th in g s, e tc . Usually these c o s ts, p a r tic u la r ly those in 2), are d i f f i c u l t to determine. What is the value of a v i s t a , or a q u ie t environment/ What is i t worth to have p o iso n -fre e food? Or a r a d ia tio n - f r e e environment? P u b lic Costs (l-SjjCEDi = fra c tio n of cost of environmental damage not borne by a c tiv i ty i . Will be taken to be p u b lic ly borne. 290 TABLE 16 - -c o n tin u e d P r i v a t e C osts P u b lic Costs The f in a l rele v an t cost i s : CTX^ = cost of taxes on a c t i v i t y i . NOTE: A c e n tra liz e d a c t i v i t y w ill most lik e ly occupy much more expensive p ro p erty than k d e c e n traliz e d a c t i v i t i e s . Cost This sectio n w ill add up p riv a te costs a sso cia ted with a c t i v i t y i . Thus, for any given a c t i v i t y i , t o t a l p riv a te costs are: TPVCi = Ci (t) + CQi + c^CT^ + Bi CTOi + y^CAB^ + < 5 i CEDi + CTXt This, of course, must be done fo r each of k a c t i v i t i e s in the d e c en traliz e d case, and of course the r e s u lts :u s t be compared. The p riv a te costs are annual costs and must be discounted. The p re se n t value i s : Summary All p u b lic costs necessary to support a c t i v i t y i are now summed. TPUCi = CTPS(t) + ACq + A(l-Ui )CTIi + ( l- $ i ]CTOi + (1-yi )CABTi + ( l - 6 i ]CEDi . The p u b lic y ea rly costs must be d i s counted. The p u b lic costs due to p r i vate a c t i v i t y i must be tr e a te d in two fashions. They are: 1. Those costs asso cia ted uniquely with p riv a te a c tiv i ty i which w ill d i s appear when i t disappears. They are some function of TPUC^, e . g . , oTPUC^. TABLE 16- - c o n tin u e d P r i v a t e Costs r = i n t e r e s t r a te . P u b lic Costs N TPVC-Ct) PVC- = PV(TPVC- ) = I -------±— ~ 1 1 t= l (1+r) They are discounted conventionally: N PV1 - I t= l aTPUCi (t) Cl + r ] 1 2. Those costs of a c t i v i t i e s which w ill e x i s t and serve the c i t y , or pub l i c , a f t e r a c tiv i ty i is gone. Their p rese n t value is : N PV2 - I T=1 (l-o)TPUCi (t) ( l+ r ) T Total p rese n t value of p u b lic costs is PVCUi = PV = PV1 + PV2 P riv a te B enefits R = revenues accruing to a c t i v i t y i . These must cover p r o f it s ir i , retu rn s on c a p ita l y C ji, and operating co sts. Will be assumed to cover above th ree c o s ts, and thus is not included d ir e c tly in b e n e fit summary. ________________Public B enefits_________ VBP^ = B enefits derived from lo c a l producing over importing: Salable component of CK(PM^-P^) where Pj is the p ric e of item and PM ^ is the import p rice of item. 292 TABLE 1 6 - -c o n tin u e d P r i v a t e B e n e fits t t^ = p r o f i t s r e s u ltin g from a c t i v i t y i ( i f d ec en tralize d : and the sum must be taken over k ) . Cji = re tu rn on c a p ita l ( i f d e c e n tra liz ed : ^ C ji, again summed over k) . VX = y(CTPS(t) + ACq), where: CTPS(t) = t o t a l y early cost of a d d itio n a l c a p ita l req u ired to provide p u b lic serv ices required by a c tiv i ty i . ACq = t o t a l of c i t y 's yearly operating costs to provide ad d i tio n a l c ity se rv ic es required by a c tiv i ty i . y = r a tio of CTX^ to CTPS(t) + AC0 . I f y < 1, th is would become a cost to the p riv a te a c tiv i ty and a co st to a c tiv i ty i , and a p u b lic b e n e fit. P u b lic B e n e f its Income re la te d b e n e f its . Total income from a c tiv i ty i is Y^. Some p a rt of th is may be considered to be a b e n e fit, namely, th a t p a r t of Y^ which exceeds Ye , the next la rg e s t income-producing a c t i v i t y . Denote th is tf»Yi. M (<J>Yi) , where M is an o p erato r re p r e sen tin g a re a lly d is tr ib u te d m ultiple e f f e c t s . CTX^ = taxes c o lle c te d from a c t i v i t y i . 293 TABLE 1 6 - -c o n tin u e d P riv a te B enefits Public B enefits PVB(t) = + rC ji + VX p er year These are annual b e n e fits ; thus, they must be discounted. Their present value is : N PVB = PV (PVB ( t ) ) = I FVB-^ t=l (1+r) PUBi (t) = VBPi + + M ((j>Y i ) + CTXi These b e n e fits must be discounted. They can be discounted in the usual fashion. Their p rese n t value is : N PUB.(t) PUBB = PV (PUB ( t ) ) = I -----^ r - t= l U +r) 295 d e ta ils of a methodology designed to estim ate some of the c o s t-b e n e fits sketched e a r l i e r and summarized in Tables 15 and 16. Obviously, with many of the costs and b e n e f its , there are few i f any problems. Inform ation on c a p ita l o u t lays for p la n ts are a v a ila b le , operating costs can be ob tain ed from numerous sources, p ublic b e n e fits of producing lo c a lly over importing are e a sily computable. Taxes can be estim ated. The cost of producing p u b lic se rv ic e s can be computed as, on the basis of use, can the b e n e fits . There are two d i f f i c u l t problems in estim ating co sts. They are: 1. T ransportation co sts. 2. Environmental, ec o lo g ic a l, and abatement co sts. A p r a c t ic a l and approximate method w ill be s e t fo rth to estim ate f i r s t - i t e r a t i o n tra n s p o rta tio n co sts. In a sim ila r p r a c t ic a l v ein , an approach to handling abatement costs in the lig h t of l i f e q u a lity standards w ill be se t f o r t h . Transport Cost Estim ation Before proceeding with the f i r s t i t e r a t i o n tra n sp o rt cost e stim a te s, some assumptions w ill be made which w ill reduce the magnitude of the task . They are: 1. I f the tra n sp o rta b le output weight is le ss than ten per cent of the input weight, the cost of tra n sp o rtin g 296 output w ill be dropped, CTO= 0. 2. I f the input weights are le s s than ten p er cent of the output w eight, then CTI = 0. 3. In a c t i v i t i e s where I and 0 are paper or i n f o r mation, CTI = CTO = 0 (not including newspapers or book p r in te r s and b i n d e r s ) . 4. A c ti v itie s o b ta in in g a l l f a c to rs from e x te rn a l re so u rc e s, except la b o r, w ill e x h ib it a CTI > 0 only i f they are lo c a te d away from the r a ilh e a d or p o r t. 5. E xporters, i f lo c a te d at ra ilh e a d or p o r t, w ill have CTO = 0. 6 . I f one c e n tr a liz e d a c t i v i t y rece iv es more than h a lf o f i t s input from the output of another c e n tr a liz e d a c t i v i t y , they w ill be assumed to be contiguous, i . e . , CTO (source) = CTI (user) = 0. 7. D ecen tralized a c t i v i t i e s p ossessing the same p ro p erty as s ta te d in 3), above, w ill be p a ire d and located as a group. For a c t i v i t i e s f a l l i n g in to none of the above c a t e g o rie s , some assumptions must be made and a method of mak ing rough estim a tes developed. (For now, labor tra n s p o rt costs w ill be ig n o red .) The approach w ill be: 1. A gross o v e ra ll r a te per ton-m ile w ill be assumed (RT). 2. Some mean d istan ce s w ill be c a lc u la te d . 297 F ir s t, look at the input tra n sp o rt c o s ts, CTI, for c e n tra liz e d and d ecen tralized a c t i v i t i e s . Case 1. C entralized A ctiv ity The average fa c to r tran sp o rt distance w ill be assumed to be about: U = 2 x d, where d is the longest dimension of the c ity . This more or less assumes facto rs come from a l l quadrants of the c ity . Case 2. D ecentralized A ctiv ity (k F a c i liti e s ) For a d ecentralized f a c i l i t y , N A D = 2d + I | , k=l k where N = the number of f a c i l i t i e s . This function has the basic quadrant access for one f a c i l i t y and adds a decreasing distance for each f a c i l i t y added. For these a c t i v i t i e s , i . e . , those with dispersed input sources, the cost of input transport is : TC^ = T ± * a • RT • U , where a is a vector whose components are one or zero, depending on the " s h ip a b ility " of the component of . Some sim ilar estim ates w ill have to be made for the cost of tran sp o rtin g outputs, TCCh . In the case of tran sp o rtin g outputs, an add itio n al d is tin c tio n w ill have to be made, namely, between those shipping prim arily to r e t a i l e r s and those shipping prim arily to other a c t i v i t i e s . ('’Prim arily" w ill be taken to mean 298 considerably over 50 per c e n t, say, 60 p ercen t to 70 per c e n t .) Thus, we have four c a s e s : 1. C e n traliz e d , shipping to r e t a i l or commercial. 2. C e n tralized , shipping to o ther a c t i v i t y . 3. D ec en tralized , shipping to r e t a i l or commercial. 4. D ecen tralized , shipping to o th er a c t i v i t y . Case 1 - - c e n tra liz e d shipping to r e t a i l - - i s s im ila r to Case 2 in the c a lc u la tio n of CTI, but k w i l l be much la rg e r. As a f i r s t e stim a te , i t would s u f fic e to use the r e l a t i o n s h i p : N A 2d + I p k=l k to reach each general r e s i d e n t i a l area. Then, 26 w ill be used to span the r e s i d e n t i a l area (per a r e a ) . (6 is the longest dimension of the r e s i d e n t i a l a re a .) Thus: N ,1 U = 2d + I £ + 2N6 , k - i r where N is now the number of r e s i d e n t i a l are a s. Case 2 is id e n tic a l to Case 2 in the CTI c a lc u la tio n s . The same r e la tio n s h ip w ill be used. For Case 3 - -d e c e n tra liz e d to commercial or r e t a i l - - the idea of spanning the area a s so c ia te d with the d e c e n tra liz e d a c t i v i t y would seem to apply. Thus, i f th e re are M d e c e n tra liz e d a c t i v i t i e s , then i t w ill be assumed th a t they 299 d iv id e th e c i t y in to M a re a s o f equal a r e a , i . e . , /M. The lo n g e s t dimension o f each a re a i s /A - t /M = d*. C X t V D - 2d' should span the a r e a . Case 4 - - d e c e n tr a liz e d a c t i v i t y to d e c e n tr a liz e d a c t i v i t y : The two s e ts o f a c t i v i t i e s w i l l be p a ire d as f a r as p o s s i b l e . The number o f p a i r s , M, w i l l d iv id e the c i t y in to M a r e a s , as in Case 3. The s u b a re a 's dim ension i s : = d ' . There is no need to span the su b a re a . In f a c t , i t seems re a s o n a b le to assume the p a i r would lo c a te f a i r l y c lo s e to each o th e r . Thus, D w i l l be assumed to be: ” - I • The above covers the f i r s t i t e r a t i o n c a l c u l a t i o n o f t r a n s p o r t c o s ts (TCI^, TCCK), except fo r t h a t a s s o c ia te d w ith la b o r. This c o s t w i l l now be b r i e f l y t r e a t e d . T ra n s p o rta tio n Costs - Labor The t r a n s p o r t c o s ts which were ig n o red e a r l i e r w i l l now be in tro d u c e d , namely, the c o s t o f t r a n s p o r tin g the la b o r in p u ts to the a c t i v i t y . Much o f t h i s must be taken as a p u b lic c o s t. I t can be a r a t h e r im p o rtan t one i f the c i t y i s so d esig n ed th a t the only p r a c t i c a l means o f going to work is v i a p r i v a t e v e h i c l e s . A s e t o f s t r e e t s , h ig h ways, freew ays, e t c . , must be c o n s tru c te d to c a rry th e lo a d , / T M 300 large amounts of land must be taken out of o ther p o ssib le uses. The a c tiv i ty or firm fre q u en tly furnishes or con s tru c ts parking f a c i l i t i e s . As a rough example, assume an a c tiv i ty employing 10,000 people, each o f whom liv e s an average of fiv e miles from the p la n t (round t r i p : 10 m ile s). Each day, 10^ miles are driven a t , say, 10^/m ile. This adds up to $100,000 per day or about $30,000,000 p er y e a r . To th is should be added at le a s t some p a r t of the very large cost asso c ia ted with s t r e e t and freeway co n stru c tio n and the n o n -n eg lig ib le cost of the amount of land they consume. This co st should be denoted on both the c e n tra liz a - tio n -d e c e n tra liz a tio n c o s t-b e n e fit summary and in the t r a n s p o rtatio n mode summary. Abatement Cost E stim ation. As an example, look a t a p a r t i c u l a r l i f e q u a lity standard. Most of those which are re la te d to a p o llu ta n t ( a ir , water, noise) a f f e c t any given area as a function of distance to the p o llu tin g a c t i v i t y and the size of the oper atio n . Thus, in are a l u n it b, due to a c t i v i t y i in area l u n it d, 7 S tre e ts , highways and freeways are to f a c i l i t a t e tra n sp o rta tio n from one point to another. They have a secondary p ro p erty , namely, they make the distances be - tween points g re a te r by using up so much of the land. Thus, they spread a c i ty out to some ex te n t. In almost a l l c a se s, the le v e ls of can be changed (usually reduced) by some s o r t of abatement p ro c e dure. The abatement procedure may co n sist of a v a r ie ty of a c tio n s , reduction of the sc ale of the a c t i v i t y , adding abatement equipment, a change in the method of p ro d u ctio n , or a change in the in p u ts , 1^. A ll of these s t r a t e g i e s or procedures w ill r e s u l t in a d d itio n a l costs (ABTC^). For each a c t i v i t y , A^, the e f f e c ts on the l i f e q u a lity standards must be computed for: 1. C entralized f a c i l i t y . 2. D ecentralized f a c i l i t y . As an example, look at a p a r t i c u l a r problem, th a t of noise p o llu tio n . The l i f e q u a lity stan d ard fo r th is would be ca st in some form r e la te d to the Fletcher-Munson curves, which define a th resh o ld of a u d i b i l i t y and a t h r e shold of pain from 2 to 20,000 cycles per second in d eci- O b els above the th resh o ld of a u d i b ilit y a t 256 cycles per second. Thus, the stan d ard would be a curve of decib els above th resh o ld vs. frequency. The power in a sound wave is a f f e c te d by se v e ra l th i n g s : 1. Distance to the source (inverse square law). Q A decibel is a measure of r e l a t i v e power. Thus, a t a given frequency, sym bolically db = 10 log^pPj/PQ, where P^ and Pq are power le v e ls , Pq is the th resh o ld . 302 2. Frequency (absorption phenomena). 3. Soundproofing at the source or point of sensing. Thus, a c tiv ity at distance r = ^ If a c tiv ity i produces sound with a c e rta in power sp e c tra l den sity , i t is f a i r l y easy to determine: 1. The in te n s ity of the audio f ie ld as a function of distance. 2. Its r e la tio n to the acoustical q u a lity standard as a function of d istan ce. 3. The cost of reducing the actual levels to the l i f e q u ality standard le v e l. This is the abatement cost for a c tiv ity i . In the c e n tra liz a tio n -d e c e n tra liz a tio n tr a d e -o ff, i t is necessary to add ABT1 to the C for C K , C K /2 ..., and the tran sp o rt co sts, TCI^ and TC C K . This must be done for each size p la n t in v e stig a te d . Generally, for the costs associated with p o llu tio n problems, the decen tralized operations do not require ab ate ment; n atu ra l fa c to rs , space, e t c ., handle the problem. But, i f abatement is_ required, i t is more expensive for the d ecentralized f a c i l i t i e s . Tables 17 and 18 i l l u s t r a t e ty p ic a l p o llu tio n and ecological abatement c o s t- b e n e f its . Costs P riv ate P art of cost of new equipment P art of cost of d if fe re n t input F in e s/p e n a ltie s TABLE 17 POLLUTION ABATEM ENT COSTS B enefits Public P art of cost of new equipment and/or P art of cost of new input or Increased cost of imports P riv ate Publie Reduced p riv a te B e tte r h ea lth a g r ic u ltu r a l damage Reduced p la n t damage Lower h e a lth / care costs Longer l i f e E sth e tic Reduce damage to s tru c tu re s Revenue from fin e s / p e n a ltie s TABLE 18 ECOLOGICAL ABATEMENT COSTS Costs B e n e f its P rivate Part I : (Do nothing) 0 Pub l i e P riv a te Public P art II: (Abatement) Part of abatement equipment costs P art of d if f e re n t input costs Reduced produc tio n (and t h e r e fore p r o f it s ) Eventual costs d i f f i c u lt to d efin e. Costs of ignoring in a l l eco lo g ical standards is i n f i n i t e , i . e . , death of man. P a rt o f abatement equipment costs P art of d if f e r e n t input costs Loss of jobs Continuing p r o f i t s Continuing use of a commodity or mix of commodities Continued stream of (reduced)pro- f i t s (?) Continued existence of man 304 305 Minor A ctiv ity Location This section w ill discuss b r ie f ly the lo catio n of several sm aller types of a c t i v i t i e s . "Smaller" is used in the sense th a t the individual a c tiv ity to be located is sm aller. Thus, r e s id e n tia l a c tiv i ty deals with locating a small a c tiv ity , yet i t is about the most important a c tiv ity of the c ity . S itin g of commercial a c tiv i ty w ill also be b r ie f ly discussed. R esidential Area Location This section w ill note some of the facto rs involved in lo catin g r e s id e n tia l a c tiv i ty . F i r s t , i t should be r e a l ized th a t re s id e n tia l a c tiv i ty , lik e any other a c tiv i ty , has inputs and outputs. Typically, the inputs are: People Land Food (including packaging) Water E le c tr ic ity Natural gas (or some equivalent energy source) Air Other miscellaneous m a te ria ls. Some of the outputs are: People Solid Waste 306 Sewerage P o llu te d a i r These items must be tra n sp o rte d in and out of the a re a l u n its . The costs and the e f f e c ts on the environment must be considered. P rio r to the lo c a tio n a l a n a ly s is , i t w ill be n ec e s sary to determ ine, very approxim ately, the amount of housing re q u ire d . From the p relim in ary p opulation s iz in g , t o t a l p opulation w ill be known and, from the i n d u s t r ia l s iz in g , the siz e of v ario u s income groups could be estim ated. Thus, the approximate number of demanders of various categ o rie s of r e s i d e n t i a l a c t i v i t y can be estim ated. The p o te n tia l supply of r e s i d e n t i a l land is th a t land not occupied by o th e r a c t i v i t i e s . (This is not to be construed as a p re ju d ic e a g a in st r e s id e n tia l land use; r a th e r , i t r e f l e c t s the f a c t th a t almost any p h y sic al type of land can be used r e s i d e n t i a l l y .) Each a re a l u n it not otherw ise occupied must then be te s te d fo r: R e sid e n tia l s u i t a b i l i t y . Type of r e s i d e n t i a l a c t i v i t y . The to o l u t i l i z e d w ill be comparative c o s t-b e n e f it a n a ly s is . General R e sid e n tia l S u i t a b i l i t y P o te n tia l r e s i d e n t i a l areas w ill be dominated by the values of the l i f e q u a lity sta n d ard s, many of which are not 307 e a s i l y q u a n t i f i a b l e . Thus, such f a c t o r s as: views and v i s t a s , f l o r a , open sp a c e , low v alu es o f sta n d a rd s a s s o c i a te d w ith p o l l u t i o n , adequacy o f p u b lic s e r v i c e s , p r iv a te goods and s e r v i c e s , t r a f f i c s a f e t y , p ro x im ity to sc h o o ls , p ro x im ity to r e c r e a t i o n a l f a c i l i t i e s , d is ta n c e to work, a v a i l a b i l i t y o f t r a n s p o r t a t i o n , e t c . , must be taken in to a c c o u n t. O bviously, some o f the above are d i f f i c u l t , i f no t im p o ssib le , to q u a n tif y . About a l l th a t could be done is to attem pt to e v a lu a t e , s t a t i s t i c a l l y , the v alu e of some of th e se q u a l i t i e s through a n a ly s is o f v a rio u s types o f r e s i d e n t ia l a c t i v i t i e s in o th e r c i t i e s . This approach is com p l i c a t e d , as i s fre q u e n tly the c a se , w ith " h i s t o r i c a l " d eterm in an ts o f v a lu e , i . e . , f a c to r s which r e s u l t in v alu es which depend on h i s t o r i c a l f a c t o r s which are not amenable to lo g ic a l a n a ly s is . Thus, Nob H ill is s t i l l Nob H i l l . The prim ary f a c to r s in the t r a d e - o f f fo r g e n e ra l r e s i d e n t i a l s u i t a b i l i t y are l i s t e d in Table 19. The a r e a l u n its have now been roughly d iv id e d in to gross r e s i d e n t i a l s u i t a b i l i t y and u n s u i t a b i l i t y w ith in the bounds of p r e d ic te d p o p u la tio n . Type o f R e s id e n tia l A c ti v ity A fte r the o v e r a ll d e c is io n has been made t h a t a c e r t a i n a r e a l u n i t w i l l be devoted to r e s i d e n t i a l a c t i v i t y , i t s t i l l remains to d e s ig n a te the type o f r e s i d e n t i a l TABLE 19 RESIDENTIAL ANALYSIS, GENERAL SUITABILITY Costs B e n e f its B enefit Raw Land Costs CRL H is to ric a l Costs CL0 Public Service Costs CPS U t i l i t y Costs CU P o te n tia l Taxes CT Total Costs: IC’s Estimated Value of Benefit A esth etic: Views, open spaces, v is ta s Land Value Determinants Location Public Service U t i l i t i e s Total Value S u itab le R esid en tial Land: IV s >£C?s V, VT V, u Iv's Of the y a re a l u n its a v a ila b le (most of in d u stry , government, a d m in istra tio n , e t c . , have been lo c a te d ), those with the h ig h est excess of IV's over IC’s , to the ex ten t th a t average population density per acre X number of acres > designated population. 308 309 a c t i v i t y to occupy the a re a l u n i t . Again, the problem w ill be c a st in to a c o s t- b e n e f it form at, and again, i t w ill be a comparative or r e la tiv e a n a ly s is . G enerally, the aTeal u n its w ith the h igher l i f e q u a lity standards w ill go to the upper income groups. ( M a n y of the l i f e q u a lity standards are d i f f i c u l t to q u a n tify .) However, i t w ill be necessary to try to o b ta in some a re a l averages. Obviously, some standards are not re le v a n t or are dependent upon fa c to rs which are in no way connected to an area ( e .g ., an average income, a le v e l of h e a lth care, a good ed u catio n al system, adequate c ity s e rv ic e s , e t c . ) . Other standards a re , fo r example, environmental f a c to rs , views, v i s t a s , t e r r a i n , s o i l ty p es, f l o r a , fauna, e tc . Each sta n d ard , I\ , would be normalized in such a fashion th a t i t s b est or most d e s ira b le value would be 1.0 and averaged with a l l o th er re le v a n t sta n d ard s. In many or most c ases, the lo c al a re a l v a r ia tio n s should be moderate; th u s, i t should be p o ssib le to c o n stru c t iso -sta n d a rd lin e s (contours) of the c ity . The r e s u l t would be a map w ith , ty p i c a l l y , contours a t: = 0 .9 , 0 .8 , 0.7 0.5, e tc . average , » , , As the income d i s t r i b u t i o n of the c ity is known, the q u a n tity of each of se v e ra l c a teg o rie s of housing req u ired should be com patible. G enerally, housing c a t e g o ries should follow f a i r l y clo se ly w ith e x is tin g p a tte rn s 310 except at the lower le v e ls. Thus, most business and p ro fe s sional people must have r e s id e n tia l f a c i l i t i e s comparable to those occupied by other Americans in the same occupations or they would locate in a new town. The q u a lity of the lower end of the housing scale would be fixed by l i f e q u a lity sta n d a rd s. Generally, the b e tte r housing, p a r tic u la r ly the single family dwelling, should be located in the higher l i f e q u a lity standard areas. This should be the case for two reasons; they are: 1. If th is is not done to s t a r t w ith, the re a l e s ta te market w ill soon e ffe c t a rearrangement to place upper income residences in these areas. 2. I t is much simpler and cheaper to in su la te or abate most environmental problems in a m ultiple dwelling stru c tu re than in a sin g le-fam ily building. Each re sid e n t in each area must make his own cost- b e n e fit of cost-of-ownership analysis to determine where he w ill s e le c t his residence. B asically , the tra d e -o ff is land cost per dwelling cost plus maintenance and taxes vs. value of b e n e fits , value of c ity services plus eventual expected rece ip ts from sale of property (discounted). This individual tra d e -o ff is b r ie f ly summarized in Table 20. TABLE 20 RESIDENTIAL SELECTION TRADE-OFFS Costs B e n e f its Cost of Land Cost of S tru ctu re Maintenance, Repair .a Taxes Cost o f s i t e , or abatement C apital Input, g en erally financed, consider as payment g e n e fit enhancement Value of b e n e fits (Life Q uality Standards) Value of c ity serv ices Expected value of residence at sale (discounted)c aShould a c tu a lly include a l l tax f e a tu re s , including income tax . ^This cost v arie s with type of residence and with area l Life Q uality Standard l e v e l s . cThis is probably the c ru c ia l fa c to r in the rent-purchase decisio n . ^ent should balance c o s ts; thus, the tr a d e -o f f resolves to expected discounted value at s a le . 311 312 Commercial Commercial lo c a tio n is a tra d e between business tr a n s p o r ta tio n and p u b lic t r a n s p o r ta tio n c o s ts . Obviously, in d u stry and r e t a i l o u t l e t s would p r e f e r to be lo c a te d near each o th e r. Some s p e c ia liz e d a c t i v i t i e s , lik e tru ck farm ing and r e t a i l f r u i t s and v e g e ta b le s , would a lso p r e f e r p r o p in q u ity . Thus, the problem is again a c e n t r a l i z a t i o n vs. d e c e n tr a l iz a tio n problem. The d is tin g u is h in g fe a tu re which decides the cen t r a l i z a t i o n vs. d e c e n tr a l iz a tio n is to what e x te n t the pub l i c ( c itiz e n s ) w ill pay t h e i r own tr a n s p o r t c o s ts vs. the in c re a se in the co st of the r e t a i l item i f d i s t r i b u t i o n c o sts are borne by the in d u stry and commercial e s t a b l i s h ment. As i t is c e r t a i n l y more econom ical- -and e f f i c i e n t - - to d i s t r i b u t e r e t a i l goods by any means o th e r than p r iv a te - citizen-ow ned v e h ic le s , a l l attem pts should be made to encourage a d i s t r i b u t i o n system. (This t i e s in w ith the tr a n s p o r ta tio n system d e sig n .) The p u b lic t r a n s i t system has such a d i s t i n c t advan tage over citizen-ow ned p r iv a te t r a n s i t or business-ow ned p r iv a te t r a n s i t th a t i t is mandatory th a t t h i s mode be s t r e s s e d . Thus, i t is in the g en e ra l p u b lic i n t e r e s t to encourage d e c e n tr a l iz a tio n in the commercial area . 313 Absolute Locational Analysis The previous se ctio n decided on the c e n tra liz a tio n and d e c e n tra liz a tio n of major a c tiv i tie s and, in some cases, e .g ., c e n traliz e d using imported resources, c ity h a l l, e t c ., gave ra th e r strong suggestions for lo catio n w ithin the c ity . It is now necessary to locate the a c t i v i t i e s in an absolute fashion, i . e . , a c tu a lly choose an area l u n it for each a c tiv i ty . Thus, th is se ctio n itfill set fo rth the approach to locating the a c t i v i t i e s in an absolute fashion. As p re v i ously noted, i t would be impossible to determine a l l of the p o ssib le combinations of r e la tiv e and absolute locations of a l l a c t i v i t i e s . Thus, sev eral large e n terp rise s w ill be located f i r s t and l a t e r the sm aller or secondary a c t i v i t i e s w ill be allowed to group around the large a c tiv ity . The f i r s t step in the analysis would be to determine those a c t i v i t i e s which autom atically have th e ir locations fixed. These a c tiv i tie s w ill serve as a skeleton upon which to locate the remaining a c t i v i t i e s . Several things w ill absolutely fix the lo catio n of an a c tiv ity in an area. Some of these are: A railh ead or p o rt of entry. A riv e r. A lake. 314 A p a r t i c u l a r reso u rce. Higher ground. Level ground. C entral lo c a tio n . Thus, in d u s trie s which w ill have heavy exports (as in d ic a te d by the p relim in ary siz in g ) w ill be lo c a te d near a ra ilh e a d or p o r t. In a lik e fash io n , in d u s trie s with fa c to rs shipped in w ill lo c a te in the same area. C ertain re c re a tio n a l a c t i v i t i e s must take p lace on a lake or q u ie t bay. Paper f a c t o r i e s , pulp m il ls , e t c . , must lo c a te d on a r i v e r . A gravel or a sp h a lt fa c to ry must be near a gravel p i t . Several other items w ill give a strong in d ic a tio n of where a p a r t i c u l a r a c t i v i t y should be lo cated : Other p riv a te a c t i v i t i e s . Other p u b lic a c t i v i t i e s . C ontiguity w ith p o p u la tio n c e n te rs . F in a lly , th ere are o th e r a c t i v i t i e s which are "foot loose" w ith in the c ity boundaries. The l a t t e r two ca teg o rie s must be lo c a te d v ia a c o s t-b e n e f it a n a ly s is . The same format put forward in Tables 15 and 16 would be used. In each case, se v eral s i t e s would be s e le c te d for any a c t i v i t y and the r e s u lt s of the c o s t- b e n e f it an a ly sis stu d ie d . Obviously, the h ig h e st excess cost over b e n e fit is s e le c te d . Again, P ublic 315 B en efits must exceed P ublic Costs. Beyond t h i s , the s i t e i s s e le c te d which maximizes P riv a te B en efits minus P riv a te C o s ts. The T ra n sp o rta tio n System Design This s e c tio n w i l l d iscu ss the fa c to rs which s t r u c tu re the t r a n s p o r ta tio n system of the c i t y . I t must be noted th a t t h i s p ro c e s s , lik e most of the methods proposed, is i t e r a t i v e in n a tu re . In tro d u c tio n I t w i l l now be n ecessary to in v e s tig a te the f a c to rs which s tr u c t u r e and lo c a te the tr a n s p o r ta tio n system in the c i t y . F i r s t , some g en eral notes and assumptions w ill be made. On a g en eral b a s i s , the flow of goods and people to and in the c i t y is i l l u s t r a t e d in Figure 20. The schem atic lo c a tio n of the a c t i v i t i e s , of co u rse , does not correspond in any way to t h e i r p h y s ic a l lo c a tio n . S everal assumptions must be made. They are: 1. A mixed mode system w i l l be assumed. 2. The design process w i l l r e f e r to one mode, the b a s ic mode. The design of o th e r modes can follow a s im ila r p r o c e s s . 3. M u ltip le use w ill be assumed, when p o s s ib le . 4. P ublic fin a n c in g is assumed. 316 Import Raw M aterials ^ E x p o r t Goods Manufacturing \.dminis tr a tio n j \ \ \ R esidential Commercial X R ecreational — - — — — Goods People Figure 20. General Flow, People and Goods, in an Urban Area 317 I t should be emphasized th a t the tr a n s p o r t system design is in tim a te ly r e l a t e d to the design of the rem ainder of the c i t y . This must be considered in the design p ro c e s s . I t should also be noted a t once th a t the problem is no t the c l a s s i c a l tr a n s p o r ta tio n problem in any form, nor is i t any form o f a simple network problem. The c l a s s i c a l method of tr a n s p o r t a n a ly sis was reviewed in Chapter III. Statem ent o f the Problem The problem w ill be b r i e f l y s ta te d . I t i s : A ll a re a l u n its (i) have outputs (Q ^ ) and in p u ts to a l l 1 J " J * * * o th e r u n its ( i = 1...N, j = 1..-.N, i f j ) . The problem is then to: 1. Size or determ ine the amount of each type of tr a n s p o r t to be used. 2. Locate the ro u te of each type of t r a n s p o r t. This is to be done in an optim al fash io n , i . e . , c a p ita l plu s o p eratin g co sts are to be minimized under con s t r a i n t s imposed by l i f e q u a l ity and e c o lo g ic a l s ta n d a rd s . I t i s , of course, f a i r l y obvious th a t the problem, as s t a t e d , probably cannot be solved in closed form. Before proceeding f u r t h e r , a more p r e c is e form ula tio n of the problem w ill be made. P re c ise Form ulation The b a s ic inform ation n ecessary to s t r u c t u r e the 318 tra n s p o rta tio n system is the t o t a l inputs and outputs of each area l u n it. These are based on the inputs and outputs, the 0^ and , of a l l of the a c t i v i t i e s in each area. As the to t a l (5\ and of each area c o n sist of a number of d iffe re n t items re q u irin g d if f e r e n t tr a n s p o r ta tio n , i t is necessary to regroup them in to tra n sp o rt c a te g o rie s. Each category emanating from area l u n it 1, going to areal u n it m, w ill be designated by The s u p e rs c rip t g re fe rs to the q u a lity category of the tra n s p o rt required. Q uality re fe rs to a v a rie ty of standards; the more b asic of these are: Noise le v e ls . V ibration le v e ls . Speed. Temperature. Terminal d e la y s . If human t r a f f i c is involved, there are a number of a d d itio n a l standards dealing w ith the environment and with am enities and conveniences. Returning to the req u ired loads, obviously, they can be arranged in a square m atrix with a l l of the elements on the p rin c ip a l axis zero; fo r any type tra n s p o rt (dropping the g s u p e r s c r i p t) : 319 0 Q12 Q13 Q1N Q21 0 Q23 Q2N ^Nl........................................ °NN » whichever of Qlm or Q ^ is la r g e r or places a lower lim it on the 1 to m linkage. Next, i t is necessary to note t h a t , with each c a t e gory or mode of tr a n s p o r t, th ere are c o s ts . Thus, with mode g, there are c a p ita l co sts (bonds) and op eratin g c o s ts . The c o n stru c tio n co sts are Cc and should be spread over the expected l i f e of the p r o je c t (N y e a r s ) . The o p eratin g co sts a r e : C = Qn r d, , o xlm lm ’ where r = the ra te s per ton-m ile fo r tr a n s p o rt and dlm is the distan ce between a re a l u n its 1 and m. Note th a t r co n tain s a l l costs a s s o c ia te d w ith system o p e ra tio n . Thus, i t covers costs a s so c ia te d w ith v ario u s le v e ls of l i f e q u a lity standards and ec o lo g ic a l sta n d a rd s; maintenance costs and replacement costs are included. Roadbed ( r a i l , s t r e e t s , monorail, a irs p a c e , e t c .) must be p a id fo r and m aintained. So must be r o llin g sto c k . Thus, in g e n e ra l, se v e ra l modes must be considered. Each mode w ill be desig n ated with a s u p e r s c r i p t, g. Thus, operating cost per mode i s : 320 8^lm r dlm ’ and the construction cost per mode, p ro rated over the planned l i f e , of the link from 1 to m is : gC lm . — To obtain the t o t a l costs of the mixed mode system, i t would be necessary to sum over g and a l l 1 and a l l m. Thus, for any given year, the to ta l costs are: gco I I I tgQlm r dlm + -T T * ) * 1 m g T h eo re tica lly , i f such a function could be minimized over a l l 1 , m and g and over time under the proper c o n s tra in ts , a so lu tio n should r e s u l t . There is no known process to accomplish th is task. In lie u of a so lu tio n in closed form, i t is neces sary to proceed both h e u r i s t i c a l l y and p ragm atically, i . e . , there is a problem, i t must be solved (now), any so lu tio n is b e t te r than no s o lu tio n , and so lu tio n s th a t show tenden cies to work w ill be fu rth e r pursued. F i r s t , some sp ecial features of the problem should be noted. The general formulation would lead to a t le a s t some mode connecting every areal u n it to every other areal u n it. This is not r e a lly d esirab le. Some se le c tio n s must be made, i . e . , a tra n sp o rt link might connect area l u n it 1 to 4 but not 1 to 2 or 3, etc. In th is form, the problem 321 is more of a route selection problem. All costs, cap ital and operating, must s t i l l be minimized but not over a ll 1 and m combinations. W e must se lec t the l ' s and m's to be connected. 9 I t should now be quite clear why the c la ssic a l forms of the transportation problem are not applicable to the case at hand. They a l l assume sources and d estinations, way points, links, etc. The route selection problem is an area which has not received as much atten tio n as might be desired. To quote the geographer, Prof. Peter Haggett: Route Theory is one of the le a s t developed parts of location theory and in tre a tin g i t here attempt is made to piece together some fragments rather than i l l u s t r a t e a complete s tr u c t u r e . 10 There is l i t t l e guide in the l i t e r a t u r e ; thus, we w ill proceed h e u r i s t i c a l l y . H euristic Approach I t is obvious a t this point th at the c lassica l methods f a i l to solve the transport problem. (See Chapter I I I . ) It is also f a ir ly obvious that any neat closed form solution w ill not be possible. g I f the problem were continuous, i t probably could be formulated as a v ariational problem. ^°Peter Haggett, Locational Analysis in Human Geo graphy (New York: St. Martin's t r e s s ’, 1966) , p . 61’. 322 The approach adopted w i l l be a p r a c t i c a l one, and, of course, an approximate one. However, due to the i t e r a tiv e nature of the e n tire design p rocess, i t should y ie ld reasonably good r e s u l t s . The method w ill take the loads from a re a l unit 1 to area l u n it j ( a f te r some aggregation) and rank them in descending order. The la rg e s t load segment w ill be chosen as a s t a r t i n g point and the tra n s p o r t route extended on a lin k -b y -lin k approach. Each lin k is v a lid a te d by a cost- b e n e fit analysis. If several routes from node k are pos s i b l e , the one with the la rg e s t excess of costs over bene f i t s w ill be selected . F in a lly , the actu al route w ill be se lec ted on the basis of a le a s t-s q u a re s polynomial f i t of points along each lin k whose d ensity is p ro p o rtio n a l to along the link. This completes the route lo c atio n process for the b asic mode of tra n s p o rt. The Design Method This section s e ts f o rth the b a sic design method. F i r s t , some aggregation is necessary. (As i t sta n d s, there are about 4,000 to 5,000 areal u n its ; thus, there are 2 x 10^ Then, link by lin k , the c o s t-b e n e fit approach is se t fo rth , followed by the route s e le c tio n by polynomial le ast-sq u are f i t to the s e le c te d lin k s . 323 Aggregation As a p r a c t i c a l c o n s id e ra tio n , a c e n t r a l l y located node with a high Q- (= ^ Q • • ) should be s e le c te d . Then, a l l z i 1J contiguous areas (th ere would be eight) would be lumped with Q^. Thus, the new would be: Qij “ Qi + l , j * Qi - l , j + Q£j + Q^+l , j + Q£ - l , j + Qmj + Qm -l,j + V l J * where I and m r e f e r to the a r e a l u n its d i r e c t l y above and below i . This process is c a rr ie d out through the c i t y area. This reduces the number of a re a l u n its by a f a c t o r of nine. This reduces the number of a re a l u n its to about 400 to 450 (each o f which has N-l rays d ir e c te d to each o th e r u n it) . At t h i s p o in t, some renumbering w i l l be necessary. I t w i l l be assumed to have been done; each remaining a re a l u n it has a number s t a r t i n g w ith 1 in the upper le fth a n d corner of the area and in c re a sin g along a row going to the r ig h t. The number of rays can be f u r th e r reduced by a f a c to r of two by lumping a l l with Q j^• (With N areal u n i t s , th e re were o r i g i n a l l y N ray s, N of which were 0.) The f i r s t o p e ra tio n e f f e c t i v e l y reduces the number of a re a l 2 u n its to N/9; hence, th e re are now (N/9) rays. Hence, 2 the t o t a l non-zero rays are reduced to 1/2 (N/9) - N/9, where N is the o rig in a l number of a re a l u n its . 324 There are s t i l l far too many rays. The loads must be further aggregated. As noted, there are rays (N-l) extend ing from each reduced areal u nit. Aggregation along h o r i zontal and v e r tic a l lines is simple, as is aggregation along diagonals. This w ill be assumed to be done. The next problem is to determine on what principle to: 1. Aggregate p a r a l le l h o rizontals, v e rtic a ls and diagonal rays. 2. Aggregate non-parallel but contiguous rays. F ir s t, not a l l of the p a r a lle l rays w ill carry a load large enough to j u s t if y a tr a n s i t or transport system. They w ill be integrated with those nearly p a r a lle l. Thus, i f Q3 4 is p a r a l le l to Qs 6 and Q3 ^ is large enough to support a transport system, then Q j- ^ is added to Q3 ^ This is continued u n til a ll p a ra lle l Q^. too small for a ■J transport system have been eliminated. If more than a few paths remain in any direc tio n , more of the rays must be aggregated. The non-parallel rays present more of a problem. The p rin c ip le used w ill be as follows: 1. Given ray Q^m» several in te rsec tin g and non intersectin g but nearby rays are selected , Q ,0 ,Q . 4 4 ’ mo pq ’ ^rs 2. The area between the Q^m ray and the other rays is computed. See Figure 21. This area is proportional to the amount th at any ray is displaced, and thus proportional I 325 pq pq lm '■no 'lm 'rs Figure 21. Transport Bay Aggregation 326 in some sense to the cost of moving the Qr s > Q p q ’ o r ^no t 0 the ray Q ^m * Thus i s the area between Q^mand Qn o » A2 is th a t area between and the i n t e r s e c t i n g ray Qr s > and A- is between Q, and Q . 3 xlm pq 3. The rays with the minimum area between them are a g g re g a te d . This process w ill be continued u n t i l there are only a h a l f dozen or so rays in each quadrant. The remaining rays should appear as in Figure 21. They are of d if f e r i n g magnitude, some of the loads they carry are la rg e r than o th e rs . The l a r g e s t should be used to shape the primary tr a n s p o r t mode. Link-by-Link Process F i r s t , the lin k - b y - lin k build-up of the tra n s p o rt system w i l l be discussed, then the a c tu al route determ ina t i o n . The lin k - b y - lin k process w i l l s t a r t with a c e n tr a lly lo c ate d lin k , which ranks high in the rank ordering of the . The lin k connects two modes. That with the h ig h e s t £ w i l l be assumed to be the c e n te r. Links w ill be added outward from t h i s p o in t. The loads from the center can be denoted Q .. cj Next, each Qc^ is in v e s tig a te d for e ffe c tiv e n e s s in a c o s t - b e n e f i t a n a ly s is . Thus, as each segment is added, i t s costs must be considered. The p r in c ip a l costs and bene f i t s are shown on Table 21. TABLE 21 COST BENEFITS, LINK ADDED APPROACH Costs Private Public Land cost, Construction, cc - (Qi) Operating costs, Co Pollution Abate ment Costs,CpA Ecological Costs, C e Cost of tax l o s s , r TL Benefits Private Public Bj = Total bene f i t s for i n dustries served (in cluding altern ate transport costs) Revenues, R b = Benefit per P person served N = no people B = Nb pu p to ta l benefits to public (in cludes altern ate transport costs) TOTAL COSTS-BENEFITS: ^Public Costs ^Private Benefits ^Public Benefits 327 328 I f the incremental segment generates as much public b e n e fit as i t does costs (in d o lla rs ) and the b e n e fit to p riv a te e n te rp ris e is p o s i t i v e , i t should be added to the network; i f n o t, the link would not be added or at le a s t s e t aside for the moment. I t is p o ssib le th a t the link p ast link i could j u s t i f y i t s ad d itio n . Thus, the same type of c o s t-b e n e fit approach should be used with the next lin k . If the t o t a l b e n e fit from the two links is p o s it iv e , or a t le a s t zero, both should be added. The process then returns to the next segment and t e s t s i t for ad d itio n . This would be repeated for each general d ire c tio n and for each mode. This w ill shape the tra n s p o rt system for each mode. There w i l l , of course, be cases where the cost- b e n e fits of two links emanating from a node are close enough to cast serious doubt on which mode to s e l e c t , i . e . , ^ 10 per cent to 15 per cent. In th is case, at le a s t on a te n ta tiv e b a s is , both routes should be pursued. Thus, fu rth e r links would be added to each. A fter several links are added, and the c o s t-b e n e fit aggregated, i t should be p o s s ib le to: 1 . S elect the b e t t e r route. 2. Retain both ro u te s. The decision would hinge on the e ffe c ts of the added I 329 links, in each case, on the cost-benefit patterns of the overall system as defined up to the branch point. The process is illu s tr a te d schematically in Figure 22 . Iterativ e Nature of Transport Design As previously noted, the design process is i t e r a tive. Thus, the f i r s t ite ra tio n w ill use rough estimates of transportation costs. The second ite ra tio n w ill include transportation costs based on the transportation system designed above. In some cases, a centralization decision w ill be changed; in fewer cases, an absolute location (or site selection) decision w ill be changed. Finally, a tr a n s portation system configuration could be changed. As with an ite ra tiv e process, there is the problem of convergence. The basic trade-off is usually accuracy vs. number of ite ra tio n s . The p ractical solution is to re je c t any ite ra tio n which requires changes of the order o f the average expected erro rs. Final Route Selection I t is now necessary to select the actual routes the system should follow. Obviously, the broken series of lines defined by the link-adding process cannot be exactly followed; a smooth curve is needed. ]ost-Benefit of Link Center (c) to 1 1 — Ccst-Benefit Cost-Benefi of 3 to 4a Cost-Ber.efit of 2 to 3 etc Cost-Benefit Of 3 to 4b e t c Figure 22. Cost-Benefit, Link by Link Addition 330 331 The s itu a tio n might be v is u a liz e d as is i l l u s t r a t e d in Figure 23. Each lin k in the fig u re c a rrie s a load; thus, the link connecting a to b c a rrie s a load Qa^- (The blanks, or missing lin k s , are segments not supported by the cost- bene fit an a ly sis, even though a link f u r th e r along the way was. ) Several things should be obvious: 1. If th e tra n s p o rt system is to "span" the urban area links must emanate from the center toward a l l areas of the c ity . 2. The term ''all areas" must be defined on a p r a c t i c a l le v e l. I t w ill be taken to mean at le a s t four d i r e c tio n s (North, f a s t , South, West), and p refe ra b ly e i g h t . 11 For now, eight w i l l be assumed. 3. Thus, a s e rie s of rays should be set up, bounded by l i n e s 45 degrees apart (see Figure 23). Each ray w ill contain a t r a n s i t lin e . 4. Each lin k , as noted, c a rrie s a load, Q^j• Along each link, i n a uniform fashion, a number of points w ill be d is t r ib u t e d . The number of points w ill be p ro p o rtio n al to the magnitude o f Q.j . 11This i s not a r b itr a r y . W e are ta lk in g of an area o f 2 5,00 0 o r so acres, which would be contained in a c i r c l e with a 3.5 mile diameter, with a t r a n s i t system every 90 degrees. The maximum walk to reach a lin e is 2.5 m iles, a l i t t l e too much. With a lin e every 45 degrees, the maximum ■walk to Teach a line (on the periphery only) is a more r e a sonable 1.25 miles. 332 Figure 23. Loads After Aggregation and Link-Adding Process 333 P ra c tic a lly , the Q.^ should be normalized, i . e . , divided through by the maximum Q^,p They are then a l l num- •J bers less than 1.0; thus, Q.. £ 1.0. If 10 points were X J assigned to Q .. = 1.0, a l l others receive a proportionate J number of p o in ts. 5. The fin a l step would be performing a polynomial least-sq u ares f i t to the points on each link. The process has several advantages: 1. A smooth curve w ill r e s u lt . 2. Distances to loads are minimized (at le a s t , t h e ir squares a r e ) . 3. The magnitude of the load is taken into account. Perhaps the only disadvantage is that the method w ill emphasize large e rro rs; thus, a very high Q .. may be i J located o ff the most d ire c t route. CHAPTER VIII SUM M ARY AND CONCLUSIONS This chapter summarizes the a p p lic a tio n of the cost- b e n e fit approach to the problem of urban design. I t w ill fu rth e r p resent some of the conclusions, not a l l of which were a n tic ip a te d , which developed during the course of w r i t ing th is d is s e r ta ti o n . I t must be admitted at th is time th a t the magnitude, complexity and general i n t r a c t a b i l i t y of some of the problems encountered considerably exceeded the a n tic ip a tio n s of the author. Several things have become c le a r during the course of th is d is s e r t a t i o n . The p rin c ip a l things are: 1. There has been l i t t l e done in the area of s y s tematic design methods for urban areas. 2. The problem of the design or s tr u c tu rin g of a c i t y , and including i t s major p riv a te and public a c t i v i t i e s and i t s tra n s p o rta tio n system, are tru ly enormous. All th a t could r e a l ly be attempted is a general s tru c tu rin g of the major a c t i v i t i e s . 3. With a few exceptions when a c ity has been designed, i t is e s s e n ti a ll y an a r c h i te c tu r a l design, i . e . , a c t i v i t i e s are la id out and located p r in c ip a lly through 334 335 visual appeal. The vantage point from which th is beauty is to be perceived is frequently 5,000 to 10,000 feet altitu d e . 4. For the most p a rt, the few exceptions to a rc h i te c tu ra l dominances have used design methods based on several alternate needs, e.g .: a. Special purpose in d u stria l c itie s . b. M ilitary considerations, c. Real estate speculation. Many of a) and b) were designed by mathematicians or engineers, who were preoccupied with geometric regularity. 5. Further, i t should be noted th at, in a few cases, some analysis has been done, e .g ., the B ritish New Town effo rt, Cuidad Guayana. In the la t t e r case, Cuidad Guayana, some economic and demographic analysis was actually performed. 6 . Finally, it became apparent th a t, regardless of the methods used, the results were of mixed value. All of the designed c itie s had problems. The need for b e tte r design tools and methods is quite apparent. The method proposed in this d issertation was the general cost-benefit approach. Within this frame work, an attempt is made to structure the major a c tiv itie s in an economic fashion. Thus, costs are to be minimized, benefits must exceed costs, and this must be done under a series of constraints which deal with the quality of lif e 336 within the c ity . Several conclusions r e s u lt from this d is s e r ta tio n . The primary conclusions are: 1. The d is s e r ta tio n demonstrates rath er c le a rly that most of the major problems associated with c ity design can be tre a te d and resolved, although not in closed form, by means of a co st-b e n efit approach. This includes sp e c ific applications to: a. Regional land use and s i t i n g the c ity w ithin a reg io n . b. City sizing. c. C e n tra liz a tio n -d e c e n tra liz a tio n and a c t i v i t y s c a l e . d. Absolute locations of a c t i v i t i e s w ithin the c i t y . Less sp e c ific applications can be made to: a. The tra n sp o rta tio n system design. b. Certain ecological problems. There are, in a very re al sense, cases where there are no tra d e -o ffs . Thus, i f carbon dioxide reaches one hundred p a rts per m illion in the atmosphere, we are dead (and not in the long r u n ) , c. A r t i s t i c and e s th e ti c m atters. There is no re a l way to attach costs or the value of bene f i t s to these m atters. 337 2. I t is apparent that much more work w ill be neces sary in defining and quantizing both the lif e quality sta n dards and the ecological standards. P.elatively l i t t l e has been done, at least quan titativ ely , in these areas. 3. Another conclusion which resulted from this d is se rtatio n is th a t, in the form in which i t appears here, the transportation problem, or b e tte r route location, is a new problem and one really not solved in completely satisfactory form. I t should be re ite ra te d that i t is not the Hitchcock problem, the transshipment problem, the traveling salesman problem, or the Ford-Fulkerson problem. There is no origin or destination or no links with specific capacities. 4. Finally, a conclusion relating to the methodology is laid out in this d issertatio n . Another point should be noted: The number and mag nitude of the cost-benefit studies which have to be made, the data they w ill require and the ite ra tiv e nature of the process w ill require computerization. This implies several th in g s: 1. A data base would have to be developed. 2. A cost-benefit format computerized and i n t e r facing software developed with the data base. 3. Some specialized environmental physical and cost models might have to be developed. 338 4. Probably the tra n sp o rta tio n would have to be modeled, both physically and as to cost. 5. Probably the survey-inventory should be com puterized, possibly even developed for graphics use. CHAPTER IX RECOMMENDED AREAS FOR FUTURE RESEARCH This chapter w ill discuss some areas "which th is d i s s e r t a t i o n suggests as f r u i t f u l fo r future research. The l i s t i n g is c le a rly not exhaustive and should be considered to be more suggestive. Primary areas o f research which should be pursued include those in the following l i s t i n g . 1. The c o s t-b e n e fit format for p u b lic and p riv a te a c t i v i t i e s should be computerized. This w i l l involve se v eral ste p s: a. Computerizing the actu al c o s t - b e n e f i t c a l c u l a t i o n s . b. Gathering economic data on a wide v a rie ty o f p u b lic and p riv a te a c t i v i t i e s . This must a ls o be computer ized i . e . , p u b lic and p riv a te a c tiv i ty d a t a b a s e s should be constructed. 2. Life q u a lity and ecological standards must be formulated. There are three d i s t i n c t problems. They are: a. What q u a n titie s to include and exclude in each c a te g o ry . b. Costs asso ciated w ith the standards. 339 340 c. Measurement of these quantities and costs. Again, the items noted above must be computerized. 3. Further work should be done in the basic mode route location problem. A really sa tisfac to ry solution would compare two things: 1. Costs associated with lengthening the route to accommodate a Q-.. J 2. Costs of moving the Qi > to the existing route. V The approach suggested in this d issertatio n was a " f it" to the "links" carrying the . I t tended to gener ate a curve (polynomial) which minimized the squares of the distances to minimize the distances to the Q-. links. This 3 is more or less equivalent to minimizing the costs of moving to the route. One approach to this problem would be to attempt to minimize the distances and the costs per mile of route added. Thus, i f the polynomial is designated: f(x) = I akxk , then its length would be given by: s = 1 + kaxk ^dx and the cost: C(s) = I^s. The usual least-squares form: l i ' I (V i - I . i * { ) 2 341 and the c o s t s : C CD - I K2 I- . The best approach would probably be to add on a link at a time. Thus, perform the least squares without the 1* in question, obtain the polynomial la^x , evaluate the i n t e gral and compute the costs, then add the and repeat the process. The in teg ra l becomes d i f f i c u l t i f the polynomial is of higher degree than a quadratic. The fourth order case can be transformed into an e l l i p t i c a l in te g ra l. Beyond th is , numerical integration would probably be necessary. 4. Another area of research which is strongly sug gested is the consideration of the timing and rates of a c tiv ity development. I n i t i a l l y , at t = 0, the locally generated output is zero, 0^ (t=0) - 0 and 1 = 1 . . . J . Ultimately, at the end of the development period (t s T}, the output is 0 ^ (T) and i = i . . .M, M > K. Demand for C K is OD^ and not necessarily dependent more on population than on 0^. If the product of an a c t i vity is not produced lo c a lly , i t must be imported, at a price PM (compared to P, PM > P). Thus, the inputs at any time are: QM^t) = OD^t) - O ^ t ) . The incremental costs of importing product i are: 342 ACi (t) - OMjCt) ' P . Presumably, 0 (t) is an increasing function o f time. Mow look a t a p a r t i c u l a r . O rig in a lly , i t is not furnished. O^(t=0) = 0. Now, several things must be considered: 1. A c tiv ity i is never constructed as p > pM o r too close to make o u tp u t i p r o f i t a b l e . I f th is is the case, there is no need to consider a c t i v i t y i f u r th e r . 2. A c t i v i t y i can be constructed at some p o in t in time, t = t ^ . Here two cases must be considered: a. CK i s constructed a l l at once . b. r t i s b u i l t up over time. 3. Some a c t i v i t i e s prim arily meet f i n a l demands. Others are prim arily facto rs. The problem which must be solved then is : Select the time each a c tiv ity is t o be introduced and the rate of i t s development in such a fashion th a t £ £ A C^(t). This t i must be done under the c o n s tra in t t h a t c a p ita l use r a t e s are kept to such a le v el th at the i n t e r e s t rate i s not a ffe c te d . I t is probable th a t th is problem is not solvable in closed form. 5. Several a u x ilia ry to o ls should b e developed. Some of these a r e : a. A coordinate system. b. A land use coding system. c. An a re a l unit t r a n s p o r t load system, i . e . , a l l 343 should be taken care of. d. Physical models should be developed including a l l environmental problems. 6 . F inally, some attempt should be made to measure the effectiveness of the proposed method. This w ill be a large task, in fact a monumental task, but one which would, or could, very well be very co st-effectiv e. Basically, i t involves comparing costs and benefits of actual c i tie s whose h is to rie s are fairly well known with what would have hap pened i f the cost-benefit approach as outlined in this d i s se rta tio n had been applied. This is a very large task but one which could probably be accomplished. Building and Safety Department records, including building permits, are available for about 100 years; tax records in the form of the assessor's file s are available for 100 to 150 years; business records (of major a c t i v i t i e s } are available for at least 70 to 90 years; maps of a ll major c itie s in various sta te s of development are available; fa irly good records of cap ital improvement programs, bonds, e t c ., are available for 200 years. In view of the extremely large amount of money necessary to house and provide for the anticipated one hun dred million people who w ill be added to the American popu la tio n by the year 2000, i t is extremely v ita l that th is problem be trea ted in some d e ta il. SELECTED BIBLIOGRAPHY B O O K S B en ev o lo , Leonardo. The origins of Ho— T^11 P la n in g . T ranslated by Judith Landry, c IT m m ^ —wr~ - i H m , M a s s . : m t t P r e s s , 1967. B entham , Jeremy. 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The Reference Division of the Central Office of Information, Ministry of Housing and Government (June, 1964). Robinson, Betty. "An Adventure of Archeology." Motive (January, 1960). REPORTS AND PAPERS Baranov, N. V. Building New Towns. Background Paper No. 11, United Nations Symposium on Planning and Development of New Towns, Moscow, 24 August to 7 September 1964. Eichler, Edward P. "Why New Communities." E d ito rial Research Reports (January, 1969), 95-113 "European Experience with New Towns." E d ito rial Research Reports (November, 1968), 805-816. UCLA Engineering Executive Program Report 69-145 (June, 1969), University of California at Los Angeles. Wayne, Lowell. "Chemistry of the Urban Atmosphere." Unpublished Working Paper, Los Angeles Air Pollution Control D is tr ic t, 1966.

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Creator Hoover, Leroy Russell (author)

Core Title An Investigation Into The Use Of The Cost-Benefit Method In Urban Design

Degree Doctor of Philosophy

Degree Program Economics

Publisher University of Southern California (original), University of Southern California. Libraries (digital)

Tag Economics, General,OAI-PMH Harvest

Language English

Contributor Digitized by ProQuest (provenance)

Advisor Niedercorn, John H. (committee chair), Siegel, Gilbert (committee member), Tintner, Gerhard (committee member)

Permanent Link (DOI) https://doi.org/10.25549/usctheses-c18-807796

Unique identifier UC11363435

Identifier 7318818.pdf (filename),usctheses-c18-807796 (legacy record id)

Legacy Identifier 7318818

Dmrecord 807796

Document Type Dissertation

Rights Hoover, Leroy Russell

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Source University of Southern California (contributing entity), University of Southern California Dissertations and Theses (collection)

Access Conditions The author retains rights to his/her dissertation, thesis or other graduate work according to U.S. copyright law. Electronic access is being provided by the USC Libraries in agreement with the au...

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