University of Southern California Dissertations and Theses

An Empirical Examination Of The Relationship Of Vertical Occupational Mobility And Horizontal Residential Mobility

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An Empirical Examination Of The Relationship Of Vertical Occupational Mobility And Horizontal Residential Mobility

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Content This dissertation has been microfilmed exactly as received 66— 7067 BUTLER, Edgar W ilbur, 1929— A N EM PIRICAL EXAMINATION OF THE RELATIONSHIP O F VERTICAL OCCUPA TIONAL MOBILITY AND HORIZONTAL RESIDENTIAL MOBILITY. U n iv ersity of Southern C aliforn ia, P h .D ., 1966 Sociology, gen eral University Microfilms, Inc., A nn Arbor, Michigan AN EMPIRICAL EXAM INATION O P T H E RELATIONSHIP O F VERTICAL O CCUPATIO NAL MOBILITY A N D HO RIZO NTAL RESIDENTIAL MOBILITY fy Edgar Wilbur B u tler A D is s e r ta tio n P resented to the FA C U LTY O F T H E G R A D U A T E SC H O O L UNIVERSITY O F SO U TH ER N CALIFORNIA In P a r tia l F u lfillm e n t o f the Requirements fo r th e Degree D O C T O R O F PHILOSOPHY (S o cio lo g y and A nthropology) February 1966 U N IV E R SITY O F S O U T H E R N C A L IF O R N IA T H E G R A D U A T E S C H O O L U N IV E R S IT Y PA R K L O S A N G E L E S , C A L IF O R N IA 9 0 0 0 7 This dissertation, written by .................. E D G A R _ W ._ J U T L E R ....... ................................. under the direction of h.L&— Dissertation Com mittee, and approved by all its members, has been presented to and accepted by the Graduate School, in partial fulfillment of requirements for the degree of D O C T O R OF P H IL O S O P H Y Dean DISSERTATION O Chairman ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS G ra tefu l acknowledgement i s made to the John Randolph and Dora Haynes Foundation of Los A ngeles which supported the f i e l d work for gath erin g th e d a ta used in t h is stu d y . C harles Bowerman and D aniel 0 . P r ic e of th e U n iv ersity of North C arolina in very con crete ways helped to f a c i l i t a t e the com p letion of t h is d is s e r t a t io n . A dvice and encouragement were receiv ed from M. Richard Cramer of the Univer s i t y o f North C arolina and from d is s e r t a t io n committee members C harles E. Meyers and Edward C. McDonagh o f th e U n iv ersity of Southern C a li fo r n ia . Georges Sabagh o f the U n iv e r sity of C a lifo r n ia a t Los A ngeles h elped fo cu s th e stud y and o ffered c r u c ia l comments a t th e form u lation stage o f th e problem. M aurice D. Van A r sd o l, J r ., o ffered a d v ic e , encouragem ent, cou n sel, and c r i t i c a l comment from th e in cep tio n to com pletion o f t h is d is s e r t a t io n . A ll o f th ese were g r a t e f u lly receiv ed and whatever m erit t h is work h a s, i t m ainly i s a r e s u lt of th a t a d v ic e , encouragem ent, and c r i t i c a l comment. A lso , a p p recia tio n i s g iv en to my wife, P a t r ic ia , who helped me in so many ta n g ib le and in ta n g ib le ways to com plete t h is work. TABLE OF CONTENTS CHAPTER PAGE I . T H E PR O BLEM U N D E R INVESTIGATION .................................................................. 1 G eneral Statem ent o f th e Problem ........................................................ 1 H orizo n ta l and V e r tic a l M o b ility ........................................................ 2 S ig n ific a n c e o f R e s e a r c h ........................................................................... 17 The P lan o f th e R esearch . . . . ...........................................l 8 I I . S T U D Y " DESIGN AND SA M PLE PROCEDURES......................................... .19 I n t r o d u c t io n ....................................................................................................... 19 O b jec tiv e s o f th e Study D e s i g n ..............................................................21 The Study P lan ..........................................................................................2k The O rig in a l Sam ple......................................................................................... 25 In terv iew Schedu le .............................................. 30 Summary............................................................................................ 32 I I I . FR A M E O F REFERENCE.............................................. *3k In tr o d u ctio n .................................................................................3k C oncepts: D e fin it io n s and In d ic a to r s . . ................................ .3 5 H y p o t h e s e s ...................... US Summary............................................................ .60 IV. VERTICAL M O B IL IT Y " EXPERIENCES...................................................................... 62 I n t r o d u c t io n ................................ 62 M eth od ological C o n sid eration s P r io r to S t a t i s t i c a l M easurement....................................................................................................... 63 Measurement Problems .................................................................................... 71 V e r tic a l O ccupational M o b ility E xp erien ces ................................. 79 Summary and C o n clu sio n s..............................................................................107 i i V. RESIDENTIAL M O BILITY " EXPERIENCES............................................................... 112 I n t r o d u c t io n ............................................................................... ..... 112 R e tr o sp e c tiv e R e s id e n tia l M o b i l i t y ............................................. 114 P r o sp e ctiv e Planned, C h oice, and Observed R e sid e n tia l M o b i l i t y ............................................................................ ..........................I l 6 I n te r r e la tio n s h ip o f P r o sp e c tiv e and R e tro sp e c tiv e R e sid e n tia l M o b i l i t y ..............................................................................127 Summary and C o n clu sio n s................................................................. 129 V I. CAREER A N D INTERGENERATIONAL MOBILITY: THEIR INTERRELATIONSHIPS W ITH PROSPECTIVE AN D RETROSPECTIVE RESIDENTIAL MOBILITY.................................................................................. 131 In tr o d u ctio n .................................................... . ... .. .. .. 131 R e s id e n tia l M o b ility and Head o f H ousehold’ s 19^1 O ccupational S E S .......................................................................................133 R e s id e n tia l M o b ility and Head o f H ousehold’ s in betw een 1950 and 1961 O ccupational S E S ...................................................... 139 R e sid e n tia l M o b ility and Head o f H ousehold 's 1950 O ccupational S E S .......................................................................................li+3 R e sid e n tia l M o b ility and Head o f H ou seh old 's Career P a tte r n ..................................................................... l i +6 R e sid e n tia l M o b ility and F ather o f H ead's O ccupational SES....................................................................................................................... 153 R e sid e n tia l M o b ility and In te r g e n e r a tio n a l M o b ility . . . 157 Summary. . . . ................................................................. 160 V II. OCCUPATIONAL CA R EER PATTERNS, SO C IO EC O N O M IC STATUS AM) PROSPECTIVE A N D RETROSPECTIVE RESIDENTIAL MOBILITY. . . . 163 I n t r o d u c t io n ................................ 163 O ccupational Career P a tte rn s and 1961 SES. . . . . . . . 163 O ccupational Career P a tte r n s , 19&1 SES, and R e tro sp e c tiv e and P r o sp e ctiv e R e sid e n tia l M o b ility . . . . . . . . . 167 O ccupational Career P a t te r n s , 1961 SES, and R e tro sp e c tiv e L ocal and L ong-D istance M o b i l i t y ........................................ . . 174 i i i Summary................................................................................................................. 179 V I I I . INTERGENERATIONAL MOBILITY, SO C IO EC O N O M IC STATUS A N D PROSPECTIVE A N D RETROSPECTIVE RESIDENTIAL M OBILITY-................. l 8l In tro d u ctio n .. .. .. . . . . . .......................................... , l 8l In te r g en er a tio n a l M o b ility and 1961 SES....................... . . . l 8l In terg en era tio n a l M o b ility , Head o f H ousehold's 19^1 O ccupational SES, and P ro sp ectiv e and R etro sp ectiv e R e sid e n tia l M o b i l i t y ......................... ...........................................185 In terg en era tio n a l M o b ility , Head of H ousehold's 19&1 O ccupational SES and R etro sp ectiv e L ong-D istance R e sid e n tia l M o b i l i t y .................... ........................................... 192 Summary............................................................................................................196 IX. O CCUPATIO NAL M OBILITY- EXPECTATIONS A N D RETROSPECTIVE RESIDENTIAL M OBILITY-......................................................................................199 I n t r o d u c t io n ................................................................................................199 O ccupational M o b ility E x p e cta tio n s, Head o f H ousehold's 1961 O ccupational SES, and R etro sp ectiv e R e sid e n tia l M o b i l i t y ........................................................................200 O ccupational M o b ility E x p ecta tio n s, Head o f H ousehold's 1961 O ccupational SES and R etro sp ectiv e L ong-D istance M o b i l i t y ....................... ......................................... 202+ O ccupational M o b ility E x p ecta tio n s, O ccupational Career P a tte r n s, and R etro sp ectiv e R e sid e n tia l M o b ility . . . 208 O ccupational M o b ility E x p e cta tio n s, O ccupational Career P a tte r n s, and R etro sp ectiv e L ong-D istance M o b ility . . 212 O ccupational M o b ility E x p ecta tio n s, In terg en era tio n a l O ccupational M o b ility and R etro sp ectiv e R e sid e n tia l M o b i l i t y ................................................. 215 O ccupational M o b ility E x p ecta tio n s, In terg en era tio n a l O ccupational M o b ility , and R etro sp ectiv e L ong-D istance M o b i l i t y ...................- — ......................................219 Summary...............................................................................................................223 X. O CCUPATIO NAL M O B IL IT Y " EXPECTATIONS A N D PROSPECTIVE RESIDENTIAL M OBILITY-......................................................................................227 I n t r o d u c t io n .....................................................................................................227 O ccupational M o b ility E x p e cta tio n s, Head o f H ousehold 's 1961 O ccupational SES, and P r o sp e ctiv e R e sid e n tia l M o b i l i t y ..................................................................... 228 O ccupational M o b ility E x p e c ta tio n s, O ccupational Career P a tte r n s, and P r o sp e c tiv e R e sid e n tia l M o b ility . . . . 233 O ccupational M o b ility E x p e c ta tio n s, In te r g en er a tio n a l O ccupational M o b ility , and P r o sp e ctiv e R e sid e n tia l M o b i l i t y ......................................................................... 239 Sum m ary............................................................................................................. 2h5 S U M M A R Y A N D CONCLUSIONS................................ 2i|8 Summary...................................................................................................................2i|8 C o n c lu sio n s......................................... 25l S u g g estio n s fo r Further R esearch .................................................... 258 BIBLIOGRAPHY.............................................................................................................. 262 V LIST O P FIGURES FIGURE ' PAGE 1 , Schem atic P r e se n ta tio n o f O ccupational V e r tic a l M o b i l i t y ...............................................................................................................9 2 . Schem atic P r e se n ta tio n o f H orizontal M o b ility : L ocal and L ong-D istance M o v e r s ............................................. . . li* LIST O F TABLES TABLE PAGE 1 . The Number and P ercen t o f the Housing U n it Sample and A v a ila b le Sample C la s s if ie d A ccording to Reasons fo r Not B eing E n u m erated ................................................................................ 31 2 . Male Head o f H ousehold’ s O ccupations, 1950 and 19&1: Career M o b ility ....................................... ■.......................81 3* Male Head o f H ousehold’ s O ccu pations, 1950 and I 96I ; Career M o b ility (P e r c e n ta g e s )..................................................................82 I4 .. Male Head o f H ousehold 's O ccu p ation s, 1950 and 19^1: Career M o b ility (Farm ers’ Sons E x c lu d e d )...................................... 82j 5* Male Head o f H ousehold 's O ccu pations, 1950 and 19&1, Fanners' Sons Excluded: Career M o b ility (P ercen ta g es) . 85 6 . O ccupational Career P a tte rn s .............................................. . . . . 89 7 . O ccupational Career P a tte rn s: 1950 to I 9 6 1 ...................................... 90 8 . O ccupational Career P a tte r n s , Inform ation A v a ila b le Only fo r the P eriod Sometime A fte r A p ril 1 , 1950 to Jun e, 1 9 6 1 .......................................................................................................91 9 . O ccupational Career P a tte r n s, 1950 to I 96I: Farmers' Sons E x c lu d e d ................................................................................................... 93 1 0 . F a th e r 's Major O ccupation and S on 's O ccupation, 1950: In te r g e n e r a tio n a l M o b ility ............................................................ 9^ 1 1 . F a th e r 's Major O ccupation and S on 's O ccupation, 1950: In te r g e n e r a tio n a l M o b ility (P ercen ta g es) ................................. 95 1 2 . F a th e r 's Major O ccupation and S on 's O ccupation, 1950, Farmers' Sons Excluded: In te r g en er a tio n a l M o b ility . . . 97 1 3 . F a th e r 's Major O ccupation and S on 's O ccupation, 1950, Farmers' Sons Excluded: In te r g en er a tio n a l M o b ility (P e r c e n ta g e s )................................................................................................ 98 lij.. F a th e r 's Major O ccupation and S on 's O ccupation, 196I: In te r g en er a tio n a l M o b i l i t y .....................................................................100 1 5 . F a th e r 's Major O ccupation and S on 's O ccupation, I 96I: In te r g en er a tio n a l M o b ility (P ercen ta g es) ............................ . 101 v ii 1 6 . F a th e r 's Major O ccupation and S on 's O ccupation, I 96I: Farm ers' Sons Excluded: In te r g e n e r a tio n a l M o b ility . . • • 103 17* F a th e r 's Major O ccupation and S o n 's O ccupation, 1961, Farmers' Sons Excluded: In te r g e n e r a tio n a l M o b ility (P e r c e n ta g e s )......................................................................................................... 102* 1 8 . F a th e r 's Major O ccupation and S on 's O ccupational Career P a ttern : In te r g en er a tio n a l M o b ility ............................................... 105 1 9 . F a th e r 's Major O ccupation and S o n 's O ccupational Career P a ttern : In te r g e n e r a tio n a l M o b ility (P ercen ta g es) . . . . 106 2 0 . I n te r r e la tio n s o f F iv e Year P la n , One Year P la n , Choice and Observed M o b ility , T otal P a n e l ...................................................... 120 2 1 . P h i and P h i/P h i Maximum I n te r c o r r e la tio n s o f M o b ility C r ite r ia : F iv e Year P la n , One Year P la n , C h oice, and Observed M o b ility , T otal P anel ............................................................. 122 22. T est o f Assum ption o f Combined C on trib u tion s o f F iv e Year P la n , One Year P la n , and Choice to Observed M o b ility . . . 122* 23. T est o f Assum ption o f Combined C o n trib u tio n s o f P lans and C h o i c e ........................................................................................................... 126 22;. I n te r r e la tio n s h ip o f P r o sp e ctiv e and R e tr o sp e c tiv e R esid en t t i a l M o b ility C r ite r io n M e a s u r e s ........................................................... 128 25* R ates o f P r o sp e ctiv e and R e tr o sp e c tiv e R e sid e n tia l M o b ility and Head o f H ou seh old 's 19&1 O ccupational SES . . 138 2 6 . R ates o f P r o sp e ctiv e and R e tr o sp e c tiv e R e sid e n tia l M o b ility and Head o f H ou sehold 's in betw een 1950 and 1961 O ccupational SES..................................................................................li*l 2 7 . R ates o f P r o sp e ctiv e and R e tro sp e c tiv e R e sid e n tia l M o b ility and Head o f H ou seh old 's 1950 O ccupational SES..................................l2*2* 2 8 . R ates o f P r o sp e ctiv e and R e tr o sp e c tiv e R e sid e n tia l M o b ility and Head o f H ousehold 's O ccupational Career P a tte r n . . . . 12*7 2 9 . R ates o f P r o sp e ctiv e and R e tr o sp e c tiv e R e sid e n tia l M o b ility and F ather o f Head o f H ou seh old 's O ccupational SES . . . . 155 3 0 . R ates o f P r o sp e ctiv e and R e tro sp e c tiv e R e sid e n tia l M o b ility and In te r g e n e r a tio n a l O ccupational M o b ility ...................................... 158 3 1 . O ccupational Career P a ttern s and Head o f H ousehold 's 1961 O ccupational S E S ................................................................................................ 165 y iii 3 2 . O ccupational Career P a ttern s and Head o f H ousehold's 1961 O ccupational SES ( P e r c e n t a g e s )................................ 166 33* P r o sp e c tiv e R e sid en tia l M o b ility by Career P a ttern s and 1961 S E S .................................................................................. 168 32*. R ates o f P ro sp ectiv e R e sid e n tia l M o b ility by Career P a ttern s and 1961 S E S ........................................................................................................I 69 35« R e tro sp ectiv e R e sid e n tia l M o b ility by Career P a ttern s and 1961 SES . . . ...............................................................................................171 3 6 . R ates o f R e tro sp ectiv e R e sid en tia l M o b ility by Career P a tte rn s and 1961 SES................................................................................. 172 37* R e tro sp ectiv e Local and L ong-D istance Moves, Career P a ttern s and 1961 S E S ........................... 177 38. R ates o f R e tro sp e c tiv e L ong-D istance Geographic M o b ility by O ccupational Career P a ttern s and 1961 SES........................................178 39. In terg en era tio n a l M o b ility by 1961 SES ........................................182 2*0. P ercen tage o f In terg en era tio n a l M o b ility by I 96I SES . . . . 183 2*1. P r o sp e ctiv e R e sid e n tia l M o b ility and In terg en era tio n a l O ccupational M o b ility and Head o f H ousehold’ s 1961 O ccupational S E S ...................................................... 187 2*2. R ates o f P ro sp ectiv e R e sid e n tia l M o b ility and Intergen era t io n a l O ccupational M o b ility and Head o f H ousehold's 1961 O ccupational SES......................................................................................188 2*3* R e tro sp ectiv e R e sid e n tia l M o b ility and In terg en era tio n a l O ccupational M o b ility and Head o f H ousehold's 1961 O ccupational S E S ............................... 190 2 * 2 * . R ates o f R e tro sp e c tiv e R e sid e n tia l M o b ility and Intergen era tio n a l O ccupational M o b ility and Head o f H ousehold's 1961 O ccupational SES............................................................... 191 2+5* R e tro sp e c tiv e L ong-D istance R e sid e n tia l M o b ility and In ter g en era tio n a l M o b ility and Head o f H ousehold's I 96I O ccupational SES ...................... 193 2*6. R ates o f R e tro sp ectiv e L ong-D istance M o b ility and In ter g en era tio n a l M o b ility and Head o f H ousehold's 1961 O ccupational S E S ..........................................................................................192* 2*7. R e tro sp e c tiv e R e sid e n tia l M o b ility by O ccupational M o b ility E x p ecta tio n s and Head o f H ousehold's 1961 SES...............................202 ix I48. R ates o f R e tr o sp e c tiv e R e sid e n tia l M o b ility by O ccupational M o b ility E x p ecta tio n s and Head o f H ousehold's 1961 SES. . .203 1*9. R e tro sp e c tiv e L ong-D istan ce R e sid e n tia l M o b ility by O c c u p a tio n a lM o b ility E x p ecta tio n s and Head o f H ousehold's 1961 S E S ....................................................... ‘.2 0 5 5 0 . R ates o f R e tro sp e c tiv e L ong-D istance R e sid e n tia l M o b ility by O ccupational M o b ility E x p ecta tio n s and Head of H ou seh old 's 1961 S E S .................................................. 206 5 1 . R e tr o sp e c tiv e R e sid e n tia l M o b ility by O ccupation M o b ility E x p ecta tio n s and O ccupational Career P a tte r n s ............................... 209 5 2 . R ates o f R e tro sp e c tiv e R e sid e n tia l M o b ility by O ccupational M o b ility E x p ecta tio n s and O ccupational Career P a tte r n s . . 210 53* R e tr o sp e c tiv e L ong-D istan ce R e sid e n tia l M o b ility by O ccupational M o b ility E x p ecta tio n s and O ccupational Career P a tte rn s ............................................................................................. 213 Sk- R ates o f R e tr o sp e c tiv e L ong-D istan ce R e sid e n tia l M o b ility by O ccupational M o b ility E x p ecta tio n s and O ccupational Career P a tte r n s .......................................................................... 21i* 55* R e tr o sp e c tiv e R e sid e n tia l M o b ility by O ccupational M o b ility E x p ecta tio n s and In terg en era tio n a l O ccupational M o b ility . . 217 5 6 . R ates o f R e tro sp e c tiv e R e sid e n tia l M o b ility by O ccupational M o b ility E x p ecta tio n s and In terg en era tio n a l O ccupational M o b i l i t y ....................................................................................................... .2 18 5 7 . R e tr o sp e c tiv e L ong-D istan ce R e sid e n tia l M o b ility by O ccupational M o b ility E x p ecta tio n s and In te r g en er a tio n a l O ccupational M o b ility .......................................................................................220 58. R ates o f R e tro sp e c tiv e L ong-D istance R e sid e n tia l M o b ility by O ccupational M o b ility E x p ecta tio n s and In tergen era t io n a l O ccupational M o b ility .................................................................... 221 59* P r o sp e ctiv e R e sid e n tia l M o b ility by O ccupational M o b ility E x p ecta tio n s and Head o f H ousehold's 1961 SES............................... 229 6 0 . R ates o f P r o sp e c tiv e R e sid e n tia l M o b ility by O ccupational M o b ility E x p ecta tio n s and Head o f H ousehold's 1961 SES . . 230 61 . P r o sp e c tiv e R e sid e n tia l M o b ility by O ccupational M o b ility E x p ecta tio n s and O ccupational Career P a tte r n s ............................. 23U 6 2 . Eaibes © S' Fro spec t i r e R e sid e n tia l M o b ility by O ccupational Ifelbii&tiy E x p ecta tio n s and O ccupational Career P a tte r n s . . 63- Prospedtnwe R e sid e n tia l M o b ility by O ccupational M o b ility Ibcpscltarffcians and I n te r g e n e r a tio n a l O ccupational M o b ility . 6J 4. R ates © f P r o s p e c t i v e R e sid e n tia l M o b ility by O ccupational E x p ecta tio n s and In te r g e n e r a tio n a l O ccupational MoTfcO-iLiby .................................................................................................... .235 .2I4I . 2 1 * 2 C H A P T E R I T H E P R O B L E M U N D E R INVESTIGATION I . General Statem ent o f th e Problem A number o f y ea rs ago, Sorokin d istin g u ish e d two kinds o f m o b ility - 1 h o r iz o n ta l and v e r t i c a l . He defin ed h o r iz o n ta l m o b ility as movement o f geographic sp ace, and v e r t ic a l m o b ility as changes from one s o c ia l le v e l to an oth er. Subsequent an alyses have tended to fo cu s on one or the oth er and have not sy ste m a tic a lly stu d ied th e ir in t e r r e la t io n s . R o ss i, in th e concluding s e c tio n o f h is monograph, Why F a m ilies Move, su ggested th a t h o r iz o n ta l m o b ility i s o fte n the s p a tia l e x p ressio n o f 2 v e r t ic a l s o c ia l m o b ility . Since R o ssi made t h is comment in th e m id- ^ P itirim A. Sorokin , S o c ia l M o b ility (New York: Harper & B ro th ers, P u b lis h e r s, 1927)* ^Feter R o ss i, W hy F a m ilies Move (G len coe, I l l i n o i s : The Free P r e s s , 1955)• R o ssi con tin u es on to s ta te th a t "As fa m ilie s r is e in s o c ia l c la s s p o s it io n , th ey o fte n change th e ir resid en ce to accord w ith th e ir c la s s p o s it io n . I n fe r e n tia l data on t h is a sp e ct o f m o b ility were shown in t h is study; more d ir e c t research i s n ecessary to show th e e x te n t o f t h is type o f movement and i t s s ig n ific a n c e fo r the American s o c ia l str u c tu r e." O thers b e sid e s R o ssi have pointed out the need fo r in tr a m etro p o lita n r e s id e n t ia l m o b ility resea rch . For exam ple, see any o f the fo llo w in g : Warren E . Kalbach, George C. M yers, and John R. W alker, "M etropolitan Area M o b ility : A Comparative A n a ly sis o f Fam ily S p a tia l M o b ility in a C entral C ity and S elected Suburbs," S o c ia l F o r c e s, 1*2 (March, I 96I*) , p . 310; T a lc o tt Parsons, "A R evised A n a ly tic a l Approach to the Theory o f S o c ia l S t r a t if ic a t io n ," C la s s , S ta tu s , and Power, e d s ., Reinhard Bendix and Seymour M. L ip set (G len coe, I l l i n o i s : The Free P r e ss , 1 9 5 3 ), p . 126; Leo F . Schnore, "Social M o b ility in Demographic P e r sp e c tiv e ," American S o c io lo g ic a l R eview , 26 (June, 196I) , p . 1 * 1 1*; or Karl E . Taeuber and Alma F . Taeuber, "White M igration and Socio-Econom ic D iffe r e n c e s Between C it ie s and Suburbs," American S o c io lo g ic a l R eview . 29 (O ctober, 196I*), p . 7 29. 2 19 5 0 ' s » th ere have been few attem pts t o s y s te m a tic a lly and r ig o r o u sly ex p lo re th e r e la tio n s h ip betw een h o r iz o n ta l and v e r t ic a l m o b ility in urban a r e a s . A cco rd in g ly , th e ta sk o f t h is resea rch i s to p rovid e an em p irica l b a s is fo r e v a lu a tin g th e r e la t io n s h ip o f h o r iz o n ta l and v e r t ic a l s o c ia l m o b ility . The str a te g y i s t o u t i l i z e se v e r a l d if f e r e n t o ccu p a tio n a l dim ensions o f v e r t ic a l m o b ility and to r e la t e them to a 3 number o f c r it e r io n m easures o f h o r iz o n ta l m o b ility . I I . H o rizo n ta l and V e r t ic a l M o b ility W hile a number o f works have a llu d ed to th e in flu e n c e o f v e r t ic a l li m o b ility on r e s id e n t ia l m oves, a v a ila b le ev id en ce i s in c o n c lu s iv e . 5 G u lick , Bowerman, and Back, in a stu d y o f two North C arolina c i t i e s , found no r e la tio n s h ip betw een f e l t s o c ia l m o b ility and d e c is io n fo r 3 I t has been p o in ted ou t th a t th er e a re th ree major o r ie n ta tio n s to which p a st r esea rch has been concerned, th e se a re ( l ) The in d iv id u a l e f f e c t s o f m o b ility , (2 ) Comparisons o f r a t e s o f m o b ility betw een s o c i e t i e s , and (3 ) R ates o f m o b ility in a s o c ie t y a t d if f e r e n t tim e s. See E lto n F . Jackson and Harry J . C r o ck ett, J r ., "O ccupational M o b ility in the U nited S ta te s ," American S o c io lo g ic a l R eview , 29 (F ebruary, 1 9 6 4 ), pp. 5 -1 5 - We, o f c o u r se , are h ere concerned w ith th e problem o f th e r e la t in g o f m o b ility w ith oth er d im en sion s, e . g . , h o r iz o n ta l m o b ility . The stu d y o f m o b ility and i t s r e la tio n s h ip w ith oth er dim ensions m ight be co n sid ered a "fourth" major o r ie n ta tio n . ^For one exam ple, see Robert P . S tu c k e r t, "O ccupational M o b ility and Fam ily R e la tio n sh ip s," S o c ia l F o r c e s , 4 l (March, 1963) , p . 302. < John G u lick , C harles E . Bowerman, and Kurt W. Back, "Newcomer E n cu ltu ra tio n in th e C ity : A ttitu d e s and P a r tic ip a tio n ," in P . S tu a rt Chapin, J r . and S h ir le y F . W eiss, eds., Urban Growth Dynamics (New York: John W iley and S ons, Inc., 1962), pp. 315-358. 6 r e s id e n t ia l m o b ility . In c o n tr a s t, W a ttell reported th a t twenty-two per cen t o f L evittow n r e s id e n ts " en tertain ed th e id ea o f le a v in g the 7 community fo r a high er sta tu s neighborhood.'* Whitney and Grigg,' on the oth er hand, referred to n in ety per cen t o f th e ir resp on den ts' moves 8 9 as b ein g " sta tu s moves." R o ss i, and L e s lie and R ichardson, fu rth er reported a s t r ik in g a s s o c ia tio n betw een s o c ia l m o b ility e x p e c ta tio n s and r e s id e n t ia l m o b ility in te n tio n s . These stu d ie s were concerned w ith a tt it u d in a l a sp e cts o f s ta tu s and a sp ir a tio n s ; they did not r e f l e c t observed s ta tu s changes. F u rtheraore, th ey were not system a t i c a l l y r e la te d to r e t r o s p e c t iv e , c h o ic e , planned, or p ro sp ectiv e observed r e s id e n t ia l m oves. I t i s app arent, th en , th a t th e resea rch fin d in g s regarding the a t t itu d in a l a sp e cts o f s ta tu s and a s p ir a tio n s o f v e r t ic a l m o b ility and t h e ir r e la tio n s h ip s to h o r iz o n ta l m o b ility are not c o n c lu s iv e . In a d d itio n , research i s alm ost com p letely la ck in g which r e la t e s v e r t ic a l m o b ility changes to observed and oth er c r it e r io n measures o f r e s id e n t ia l m o b ility . ^Harold L . W a tte ll, "Levittown: A Suburban Community," in W illiam M. D obriner, ed., The Suburban Community (New York: G. P . Putnam's S on s, 1 9 5 8 ), pp. 287-313. ^V incent H. Whitney and C harles M. G rigg, "Patterns o f M o b ility Among a Group o f F a m ilie s o f C o lleg e S tu d en ts," American S o c io lo g ic a l R eview . 23 (December, 1 9 5 8 ), pp. 61+3-652. ^ R ossi, ojj. c i t . 9 Gerald R. L e s lie and Arthur H. R ichardson, " L ife -C y c le , C areer, and th e D e c isio n to Move," American S o c io lo g ic a l R eview , 26 (December, 1961) , pp. 891^ 90 2 . k E valu atin g th e r o le o f v e r t ic a l m o b ility in h o r iz o n ta l moves i s made d i f f i c u l t by the problem of determ ining who h a s experienced v e r t ic a l m o b ility . Furtherm ore, most p reviou s stu d ie s of v e r t ic a l m o b ility have cen tered t h e ir in t e r e s t on the consequences o f career m o b ility . N e v e r th e le ss, th e p o s s ib le in flu e n c e o f in ter g e n e ra tio n a l changes and t h e ir im portance fo r r e s id e n t ia l m o b ility cannot be ignored. V e r tic a l M o b ility V e r tic a l m o b ility has commanded the a tt e n tio n o f a la r g e number o f r e se a r c h e r s. Presum ably, t h is in t e r e s t has been stim u la ted by the sp e c u la tio n th a t changes in s o c ia l s ta tu s mey b rin g abou t changes in a tt itu d e s and b eh a v io r. In t h is r e se a r c h , th e assum ption th a t v e r t ic a l s o c ia l m o b ility would be r e la te d to h o r iz o n ta l m o b ility i s based upon sim ila r kinds o f sp e c u la tio n . T his means th a t v e r t ic a l changes are expected to have an in flu en ce upon the r e s id e n t ia l m o b ility r a te of the m etro p o lita n a r ea . Movement w ith in the c i t y , o f c o u r se , i s an im portant area o f concern both from a s c i e n t i f i c and p r a c tic a l stand p o in t. From a s c i e n t i f i c sta n d p o in t, knowledge is n ecessa ry to determ ine i f in f a c t v e r t ic a l m o b ility does in flu e n c e the amount o f r e s id e n t ia l moves in th e m etro p o lis and th e n t o e x p la in b oth th e c it y r e s u lta n t growth p a ttern s and th e a t t it u d in a l a sp e cts o f th e movement. From a p r a c tic a l sta n d p o in t, knowledge which a llo w s p r e d ic tio n of fu tu re growth and change p a ttern s and th e a t t it u d in a l concom itan ts o f r e s id e n t ia l moves w i l l allow a d m in istra to rs to s y ste m a tic a lly plan fo r fu tu re expansion, grow th, and change. V e r tic a l m o b ility can be measured from a number o f sta n d p o in ts. For example, incane and ed u ca tio n o f f e r o p p o r tu n itie s f o r measurement o f in te r g e n e r a tio n a l ch an ges. However, i f d eterm in a tio n o f movement throughout t h e l i f e - c y c l e o f an in d iv id u a l i s d e s ir a b le , ed u ca tio n i s elim in a ted as a v a r ia b le ; income ch a n g es, o f c o u r se , can be used as a measure o f b o th in te r and in tr a g e n e r a tio n a l m o b ilit y . O ccupational changes a lso can be measured from both th e in t e r and in tr a g e n e r a tio n a l p e r s p e c tiv e . O ccupational changes o f f e r a more g e n e r a liz e d approach th an income to th e measurement problem and th e r e i s seme r esea rch w hich in d ica ted th a t a p e r so n 's o ccu p ation i s probably th e b e s t s in g le in d ic a to r o f h is s t a t u s . There i s an e x te n s iv e and argum entative lit e r a t u r e concernin g th e fo rm u la tio n and u se o f m easures o f o ccu p a tio n a l v e r t ic a l m o b ility In te r g e n e r a tio n a l m o b ility p r e se n ts a d d itio n a l measurement problem s. A number o f resea rch ers have attem pted to e lim in a te th e d i f f i c u l t i e s and a l l have f a ile d to co m p letely r e s o lv e th e is s u e s a t hand. For exam ples o f t h i s l it e r a t u r e , se e th e fo llo w in g : W. Z. B ille w ic z , "Some Remarks on th e Measurement o f S o c ia l M o b ility ," Popu la t i o n S t u d ie s , 9 (1955-56) , pp. 96-100; J . D urbin, "Appendix Note on a S t a t i s t i c a l Q uestion R aised in th e P reced in g Paper," P o p u la tio n S t u d ie s , 9 (1 9 5 5 -5 6 ), p . 101; L . A . Goodman and W. H. K ru sk al, "Mea su res o f A ss o c ia tio n fo r C r o s s -C la s s ific a tio n ," Journal o f th e American S t a t i s t i c a l A s s o c ia tio n , Z j 9 (195£i) , pp. 732-76U ; Edward G ross and Saburo Y asuda, "Communications, On C o n tr o llin g M arginals in S o c ia l M o b ility Measurement," American S o c io lo g ic a l R eview , 29 (December, 196!*), pp. 886- 888; N a ta lie R o g o ff, R ecent Trends in O ccupational M o b ility (G len co e, I l l i n o i s : The Free P r e s s , 1953); or Saburo Y asuda, "A M eth od ological Inquiry in to S o c ia l M o b ility ," American S o c io lo g ic a l R eview , 29 (F ebruary, 196!;,), pp. 1 6 -2 3 . G u sfield illu s t r a t e d v a r io u s o ccu p a tio n a l career p a tte r n s which may take p la c e during th e l i f e - c y c l e o f an in d iv id u a l. H is a n a ly s is shows th a t th e varyin g s ta g e s o f ca re e r p a tte rn s by age a re a major d i f f i c u l t y i n th e measurement o f v e r t ic a l m o b ility . There are se v e r a l ways to r e s o lv e t h i s problem . For exam ple, an a g e-y ea rs coh ort 12 a n a ly s is would be an ap p rop riate tech n iq u e. T his s o lu t io n , however, r eq u ir es a sample not r e p r e se n ta tiv e o f an a rea , or an a rea sample o f such m agnitude th a t co h o r ts can be d e lin e a te d w ith in i t . A cohort a n a ly s is would account fo r th e " t o t a l” exposure t o p o s s ib le career p a tte rn s and t h e ir subsequent in flu e n c e on h o r iz o n ta l m o b ility . This i s an example o f one problem th a t fa c e s th e resea rch er in th e study o f ca re e r m o b ility . The measurement o f in te r g e n e r a tio n a l m o b ility a ls o i s com plicated by the above problem . In a d d itio n , p a r t ia llin g ou t str u c tu r a l m o b ility , or th e exp ected d if f e r e n t ia l m o b ility made n ecessa ry by th e g iv e n d is t r ib u t io n o f fa th e r s and sons occu p ation s a t th e tim e o f com parison has been rep orted as b ein g 13 im p ortan t. That i s , was the m o b ility exp erien ced by an in d iv id u a l ^ J o se p h R. G u s fie ld , "Occupational R o les and Forms o f E nter p r is e ," American Journal o f S o c io lo g y , 66 (May, 1961) , pp. 571-580. 12 See Seymour M. L ip s e t and Reirihard B endix, S o c ia l M o b ility in I n d u str ia l S o c ie ty (B erk eley and Los A n geles: U n iv e r sity o f C a li- fo r n ia P r e s s , 19& 3)» or Harry J . C ro ck ett, J r., "The Achievem ent M otive and D if f e r e n t ia l O ccupational M o b ility in th e U. S.," American S o c io lo g ic a l R eview . 27 (A p r il, 1 9 ^ 2 ), pp. 191-2014* A sim p le a g e - c o n tr o l i s somewhat s im ila r to th e a g e-y ea rs co h o rt a n a ly s is h e r e in su g g e ste d . Some c o n tr o l o f t h is typ e i s n ecessa ry t o tak e in to account th e v a s t ly flu c tu a tin g c o n d itio n s w hich in flu e n c e th e " f i r s t job" and su b seq u en tly o ccu p a tio n a l c a r e e r . ^^R ogoff, oj>. c i t . a t th e same pace a s by h is p e e r s , or a t a slow er or more ra p id r a te? To fu r th e r compound th e d i f f i c u l t i e s , in c r e a sin g u r b a n iza tio n has brought about a s u b s ta n tia l number o f son s w ith farm er p a r e n ts. Hazy tim es th e se sons and fa t h e r s are exclu d ed from a n a ly s is , perhaps to Ik e lim in a te fu r th e r c o m p lic a tio n s. The fo r e g o in g d is c u s s io n has i llu s t r a t e d some o f the d i f f i c u l t i e s in m easuring ca reer and in te r g e n e r a tio n a l m o b ility . The measurement is s u e i s one th a t must be c l a r i f i e d b e fo r e th e in flu e n c e o f v e r t ic a l m o b ility on h o r iz o n ta l moves can be a s s e s s e d . In Chapter IV, a more e x te n s iv e a n a ly s is o f th ese and a d d itio n a l problem s i s undertaken. O ccupational m o b ility may be view ed from both an in tr a g ene r a tio n a l and in te r g e n e ra tio n a l p e r s p e c tiv e . Furtherm ore, in tr a g e n e r a tio n a l changes may be d iv id e d in t o two d if f e r e n t ty p e s o f a n a ly s is . F i r s t , sons' c a r e e r s a t se v e r a l d is c r e t e p o in ts in tim e may be compared to determ ine i f career m o b ility has tak en p la c e . The second ty p e of in tr a g e n e r a tio n a l a n a ly s is i s lo n g itu d in a l and i s based upon o ccu p ation al in fo rm a tio n co v erin g a s p e c if ie d tim e p e r io d . I f t h i s typ e o f a n a ly s is i s c a r r ie d ou t fo r te n y e a rs or m ore, a s u b s ta n tia l p ro p o rtio n o f a p e r so n 's o ccu p a tio n a l " lif e " may be s c r u tin iz e d . In te r g e n e r a tio n a l o ccu p a tio n a l m o b ility , or th e d if fe r e n c e b e tween the fa th e r s ' and th e son s' o c cu p a tio n s, may be analyzed by fa th e r s ' o ccu p ation s a t v a r io u s tim e p o in ts compared w ith sons' o ccu - or a r ecen t exam ple, see C r o ck ett, op. c i t . patterns a t d is c r e t e tim e p o in ts , by occu p ation al ca re e r p a tte r n s, or by b o th . The d is c u s s io n above i s illu s t r a t e d in F igu re 1 . In a d d itio n , su b c la sse s a r e d elin ea ted fo r both in tr a and in te r g e n e r a tio n a l occu p a tio n a l m o b ility . S e c tio n A o f F igure 1 shows th e in te r g e n e r a tio n a l occu p ation al m o b ility m atrix and p o s s ib le s u b c la s s if ic a t io n s . Know le d g e o f th e son s' occu pation a t v a rio u s p o in ts in tim e i s n ecessary a s i s knowledge o f th e fa th e r s ' occu pation s a t s p e c ifie d tim e p eriod s or in t h is i l l u s t r a t i v e c a s e , knowledge o f th e fa th e r s ' major occu p a tio n a l backgrounds. Assuming knowledge o f th e so n 's occu p ation a t (a s p e c ifie d time p o in t) and knowledge o f th e f a t h e r 's major occu p a tio n , t h is in form ation fo r a l l sons and fa th e rs can be placed in a ta b le which w ill g iv e a m atrix as illu s t r a t e d in F igure 1 , S e c tio n A. The p o s s ib le s u b c la s s if ic a t io n s are sta tio n a r y sym bolized by S , upward m o b ility rep resen ted by U, and downward m o b ility sym bolized by D. Each c e l l in the m atrix d e lim its c la s s e s o f su b je c ts who have an S, U, or D in te r g e n e r a tio n a l occu p ation al m o b ility ex p e rie n c e . Accordingly, in S e c tio n A o f F igure I , each c e l l has been f i l l e d in w ith symbol which r ep resen ts a p a r tic u la r v e r t ic a l m o b ility ex p erien ce. S e c tio n s B and C o f F igure 1 d e scr ib e two p o s s ib le in tragen era tio n a l occu p ation al m o b ility a n a ly se s. S e c tio n B i s concerned w ith d is c r e te tim e p e r io d s. I t shows th a t, given knowledge o f sons' occu p a tio n a t two s p e c ifie d tim e s, a m atrix can be con stru cted which w ill in d ic a te the career m o b ility experienced by a g iv en sample o f in d iv i d u a ls. P o s s ib le s u b c la s s if ic a t io n s are sta tio n a r y ( S ) , upward m o b ility (U), and downward m o b ility (D). The above sym bols - S, U and D - in each c e l l o f th e m atrix rep resen t th e m o b ility ex p erien ce o f th e person s in each o f th e s e c e l l s . S e c tio n C i s a p r e se n ta tio n o f a second way o f v iew in g career m o b ility . Here th e fo c u s i s not on o ccu p ation s a t d is c r e te p o in ts in tim e, b ut c o n s is t s o f a lo n g itu d in a l a n a ly s is o f o ccu p a tio n a l career p a tte r n s . FIGURE 1 SC H EM ATIC PRESENTATION O F OCCUPATIO NAL VERTICAL MOBILITY S e c tio n A. In te r g e n e r a tio n a l O ccu pational M o b ility M o b ility S u b c la s s if ic a t io n s S on 's O ccupation L ev el a t T^, Tp, Tn , observa— 1 . S ta tio n a r y (S ) t io n p erio d s 2 . Upwardly M obile (U) 1 2 3 h 3. Downwardly M obile (D) F a th e r ’ s Major Oc 1 S U U U cu p ation L evel a t 2 D S U u Tn Obser v a tio n 3 D D S u P eriod k D D D s 10 S e c tio n B. In tra g en era tio n a l O ccupational M ob ility : D is c r e te Time Measurements M o b ility S u b c la s s ific a tio n s 1 . S ta tio n a ry (S ) 2 . Upwardly M obile (U) 3 . Downwardly M obile (D) Son 's O ccupation L evel a t T i, T2 , Tn , observa t io n p erio d s Son's Occu p a tio n L evel a t T i, T2 , Tn , Obser v a tio n Period 1 2 3 h 1 2 3 If s U U u D s U u D D S u D D D s S e c tio n C. In tra g en era tio n a l O ccupational M ob ility : O ccupational Career P a ttern s M o b ility S u b c la sB ifica tio n a 1 . S ta tio n a ry ( - . - ) 2 . Upwardly M obile (— -— — ) 3. Downwardly M obile ( 0 0 0 ) U- F lu ctu a tin g ( - o - ) Son's Occu p ation 1 2 3 k Son 's O ccupation Con tin u a lly from through Tn o b serv a tio n p erio d s In t h is typ e pf a n a ly s is , knowledge o f occu p ation s fo r the e n tir e period o f o b serv a tio n i s a given requirem ent. T his type o f a n a ly s is d o es n ot r e s u lt in a m atrix such a s in the two p r e v io u sly d isc u sse d v e r t ic a l m o b ility d im en sion s. The diagram can be thought o f a s a v a s t number o f m a trices across tim e . 11 The s ta tio n a r y p a tte r n i s rep resen ted by - . A sta tio n a r y p at te r n can be e x h ib ite d in any one o f th e occu p a tio n a l l e v e l s ; how ever, o ccu p a tio n a l f lu c t u a tio n may occur i f i t i s w ith in a g iv en stratu m . A second p o s s i b i l i t y , o f c o u r se , i s an upwardly m obile p a tte rn w hich in th e diagram o f S e c tio n C o f F igure 1 i s d escrib ed as ----- . An upwardly m ob ile p a tte r n req u ires t h a t a p erson cro ss a t l e a s t one o ccu p ation al boundary in an upward d ir e c t io n , however th e se boundaries may be de lin e a t e d . A th ir d p a tte r n i s th a t o f downward m o b ility illu s t r a t e d by o o o . A g a in , an in d iv id u a l must c r o ss a t l e a s t one o ccu p a tio n a l boun dary however d e fin e d , b u t in t h is c a se the change must be to a low er o ccu p a tio n a l c a teg o ry . As a r e s u l t o f an o ccu p a tio n a l career p a tte r n a n a ly s is , an addi t io n a l ca teg o ry must be added. The p o s s i b i l i t y e x i s t s in a p a tte rn a n a ly s is fo r a person t o cro ss boundaries b oth in an upward and down ward d ir e c t io n . I f s o , a flu c tu a tin g p a tte rn i s ev id en t and i s rep re sen ted in th e diagram by the fo llo w in g sym bol, - . - . In summary, an a n a ly s is o f v e r t ic a l m o b ility may be concerned w ith dim ensions o f in te r g e n e r a tio n a l and in tr a g e n e r a tio n a l o ccu p a tio n a l m o b ility . In te r g e n e r a tio n a l m o b ility may be r e f le c t e d by th e s o n s’ occu p ation s a t sev era l d is c r e t e p o in ts in tim e and t h e ir f a t h e r s ’ occu p a tio n s a t s p e c if ie d p o in ts in tim e or by t h e ir fa th ers* major occupa t io n s . In tr a g e n e r a tio n a l m o b ility a ls o may be determ ined by occupa t io n a l changes measured a t s p e c if ie d p o in ts in tim e. In a d d itio n , oc cu p a tio n a l c a r e e r p a tte r n s over a su b s ta n tia l p eriod o f th e a c t iv e em p lo y a b le y e a r s o f the l i f e - c y c l e can be th e fo cu s o f ca reer m o b ility a n a ly se s. 12 H o rizo n ta l M o b ility In th e measurement o f h o r iz o n ta l m o b ility , d if f e r e n t ia t io n must be made betw een " ch o ice1 1 and " plans." In a d d itio n , i t appears eq u a lly 15 u s e fu l to d if f e r e n t ia t e betw een r e tr o s p e c tiv e and p r o sp e c tiv e m o b ility . F urther s p e c if ic a t io n needs to be made betw een in tr a and in te r a etrop o— l i t a n r e s id e n t ia l m o b ility , or lo c a l and lo n g -d ista n c e m oves. In la t e r ch a p ters each o f th e s e c r it e r io n m easures are u t i l i z e d f o r a n a ly s is . However, primary fo cu s i s on r e tr o s p e c tiv e and p r o sp e c tiv e m o b ility 16 and r e t r o s p e c t iv e lo n g -d is ta n c e m oves. Most h o r iz o n ta l m o b ility resea rch has been concerned w ith m igra- 17 18 t io n , and has r e lie d m ainly upon cen su s d a ta . Some e x c e p tio n s are l^For a d is c u s s io n o f r e tr o s p e c tiv e and p r o sp e c tiv e r e s id e n t ia l m o b ility , see M aurice D. Van A r sd o l, J r . and George Sabagh, "Retro s p e c tiv e and P r o sp e ctiv e M etro p o lita n R e sid e n tia l M o b ility ," paper p resen ted to the Annual M eetin gs o f th e P a c if ic S o c io lo g ic a l A sso c ia tio n , S a lt Lake C ity , U tah , A p r il, 19&5, PP* 1— 15> p lu s n o tes and Appendix. 16 A t l e a s t one rep ort has em phasized th a t about h a lf o f th e moves made were w ith in th e m etro p o lita n a r e a , see K albach, M yers, and W alker, o p . c i t . . p. 312. A ls o , fo r a stu d y in which c le a r d if f e r e n t ia t io n betw een p o p u la tio n r e d is t r ib u t io n and m ig ra tio n was made, see Sara (S u tk er) Sm ith, "The O ccupational System and M igration W ithin th e U nited S ta te s : A S o c io lo g ic a l R e co n ce p tu a liz a tio n o f a Demographic Problem," unpublished d is s e r t a t io n , The U n iv e r sity o f North C a ro lin a , Chapel H ill, 1955. 17 'For a summary and b ib lio g ra p h y o f m o b ility r ese a rc h , see Shryock, Henry S . , J r ., P o p u la tio n M o b ility W ith in th e U nited S ta te s (C hicago: Community and Fam ily Study C en ter, 196/4 .) • ^^For exam ple, cen su s d a ta have been u t i l i z e d to compare m o b ility r a te s fo r suburban and urban a r e a s , see O tis Dudley Duncan and A lb ert J . Reiss, J r . , S o c ia l C h a r a c te r is tic s and Urban and Rural Com m unities. 1950 (New York: John W iley and Son s, Inc., 1 9 5 6 ), PP* 125-127* For a d e s c r ip tio n o f th e lim it a t io n s o f cen su s d ata in m easuring r e s id e n t ia l m o b ility or m ig r a tio n , se e Sidney G o ld ste in , P a tte rn s o f M o b ility . 1910-1950: The N orristow n Study (P h ila d elp h ia : U n iv e r sity o f P en n syl va n ia P r e s s , 1958)* 13 19 Rossi's study o f four census t r a c t s in P h ila d e lp h ia , x L e s lie and 20 R ichardson's e x p lo r a tio n of geographic m o b ility in I n d ia n a p o lis, 21 and B u tle r , Sabagh, and Van A r sd o l's Los A ngeles resea rch . W hile most m ig ra tio n s tu d ie s cen tered t h e ir a tt e n t io n on age and economic % f a c t o r s , stu d ie s o f intrame tr o p o lita n r e s id e n t ia l m o b ility focused more upon housing and neighborhood s a t is f a c t io n , l i f e and. fa m ily l i f e 22 c y c le changes, and on ly a llu d ed to v e r t ic a l m o b ility d eterm in an ts. Other than th ese few s t u d ie s , survey resea rch data concerning in tr a m etro p o lita n m o b ility are r e la t iv e ly r a r e . Even rarer are system atic stu d ie s o f em p irical resea rch r e la t in g to h o r iz o n ta l and v e r t ic a l dim ensions o f m o b ility . Furtherm ore, th e lit e r a t u r e , w ith th e ex c e p tio n o f th e se few c ite d s tu d ie s , m ainly has been d is c u r s iv e in n a tu re. The r e s id e n t ia l m o b ility dim ensions considered in t h is resea rch are sch em a tica lly presented in F igure 2 . Taking a p op u lation in r e s i dence a t a s p e c ifie d p o in t in tim e, two elem ents o f r e s id e n t ia l m obility 19 Rossi, op. o i t . ^ L e s l i e and R ichardson, up. c i t . 21 Edgar W. B u tle r , Georges Sabagh, and Maurice D. Van A rsd o l, J r., "Demographic and S o c ia l P sy c h o lo g ic a l F actors in R e sid e n tia l M o b ility ," S o cio lo g y and S o c ia l R esearch, (January, 196J 4) , pp. 139-154* 22 Concerning th e growth o f suburbs, Taeuber and Taeuber, op. c i t . , p. 7 1 8 , su g g e st "th ese changes have been w id ely assumed to r e s u lt from a f l i g h t o f h ig h -s ta tu s person s from c e n tr a l c i t i e s and an in f lu x to c e n tr a l c i t i e s o f low s ta tu s p erson s." F IG U R E 2 SC H EM A T IC PRESENTATION O F H O R IZO N TA L MOBILITY: L O C A L A N D L O N G DISTANCE M O V E R S R etro sp ectiv e R e sid e n tia l M o b ility In terview P ro sp ectiv e R e sid e n tia l M o b ility Movers: In R esidence Movers: a . D iffe r e n t Houses: Los A ngeles Standard M etrop olitan S t a t is t i c a l Area, Local Movers a . D iffe r e n t House: Los A ngeles Standard M etrop olitan S t a t is t i c a l Area. L ocal Movers b . D iffe r e n t House: O utside Los A ngeles Standard M etrop olitan S t a t i s t i c a l A rea, L ong-D istance Movers b . D iffe r e n t House: O utside Los A ngeles Standard M etrop olitan S t a t i s t i c a l A rea, L ong-D istance Movers Nom overs: Nonmover s : Same House: Los A ngeles Standard M etrop olitan S t a t i s t i c a l Area i Same House: Los A ngeles Standard M etrop olitan S t a t i s t i c a l Area & emerge; th e se a r e itfca rathrasgective and p r o sp e c tiv e . Almost th e e n tir e p o p u la tio n c u r re n tly im resid en ce has liv e d elsew here a t seme tim e during th e ir lif e t im e - Tffrfa means th a t they were a t one tim e or another r e tr o s p e c tiv e B H wmrs. The r e tr o sp e c tiv e nperiod o f m o b ility , n 2k o f c o u rse, in flu e n c e s vS m c i s c la s s if i e d a s a mover or nonmover. R e sid en tiv e m o b ility r a te s in crea se a s th e r e tr o s p e c tiv e period o f tim e i s len gth en ed - A r atrsrapoctive a n a ly s is o f r e s id e n t ia l m o b ility , no m atter what th e tin ® p e r io d , r e s u lt s in a minimum o f two c l a s s i f i c a tio n s - movers and auuamaamra- In a d d itio n , fu rth e r s p e c if ic a t io n may be made as to th e (distance of th e move. In t h i s regard, th e com ponent o f moves may I d ® ddjdaotomized in to in tra and interm e tr o p o lita n elem en ts, or lo c a l and lo n g -d ista n c e m o b ility . P ro sp ectiv e m o b ility may be seen in terms o f th e same frame o f referen ce a s r e tr o s p e c tiv e m o b ility ex cep t th a t em phasis i s placed upon fu tu r e re-^d«^ritfg;T moves rath er than p a st o n es. Neverthe le s s , s im ila r k in d s ®ff mentions may be developed. For example, the components may be c l a s s i f i e d th e same a s r e tr o s p e c tiv e moves. However, d if f e r e n t k in ds o f v a r ia b le s may be n ecessary to adequately e x p la in 25 r e tr o s p e c tiv e a s opposed t o p ro sp ectiv e moves. 23 Karl E . Taeraber, "E taration-of-R esidence A n a ly sis o f In tern a l M igration in th e Haaatoi Stofces,* The Milbank Memorial Fund Q u a rterly , 39 (January, 1 9 6 1 ), gap. 1 1 6 -1 3 1 . ^ S h ry o ck , op. cjjtt., p . 1 2 . an A rsdol and Sshagfe, op. c i t . , p. 2. The scheme p resen ted in F igu re 2 accou nts fo r th e a lt e r n a t iv e s o f c l a s s i f i c a t i o n th a t may take p la c e between r e tr o s p e c tiv e and p ro sp ectiv e a n a ly ses o f r e s id e n t ia l m o b ility . Each p o s s i b i l i t y i s in d ic a te d by an arrow from a r e tr o s p e c tiv e ca teg o ry to a p r o sp e ctiv e c l a s s i f i c a t i o n . P rior r esea rch has dem onstrated th a t sm all segm ents o f th e p o p u la tio n pA co n trib u te to m o b ility r a te s through repeated m oves. T h erefo re, th e e x p e c ta tio n i s th a t some o f the a lt e r n a t iv e s su ggested by th e arrows would more li k e l y be p a r tic ip a te d in than would o th e r s . For exam ple, e ith e r th e r e tr o s p e c tiv e lo c a l or lo n g -d is ta n c e movers may be pro sp e c tiv e l o c a l or lo n g -d is ta n c e m overs, or may c o n tin u e to l i v e in th e same r e sid e n c e and be c l a s s i f i e d as nonnovers. The lik e lih o o d , how ever, i s th a t r e tr o s p e c tiv e m overs would m ost l i k e l y become e ith e r lo c a l or lo n g -d is ta n c e p r o sp e ctiv e m overs. On th e oth er hand, r e tr o sp ectiv e nonmovers have the a lt e r n a t iv e s o f p r o sp e c tiv e lo c a l and lon g d ista n ce m o b ility or p ro sp ectiv e n o n m o b ility . The maximum lik e lih o o d i s n o m o b ilit y rath er than m o b ilit y . F u rther s p e c if ic a t io n s o f r e tr o s p e c tiv e and p r o sp e c tiv e resid ej> - t i a l m o b ility as th ey are r e la te d to th e g en era l frame o f r e fe r e n c e o f t h is rese a rc h are undertaken in Chapter I I I . In a d d itio n , c h o ic e and plan s as th ey are r e la t e d to p r o sp e c tiv e m o b ility are d isc u sse d and analyzed i n subsequent ch a p ters. 26 G o ld ste in , S id n ey , ^Repeated M igration as a F actor in High M o b ility R a t e s ,« American S o c io lo g ic a l R eview , 19 (O ctob er, 1 9 5 6 ), pp. 536- 5/4I . 17 I I I . S ig n ific a n c e o f R esearch - The s ig n ific a n c e o f t h i s resea rch i s th a t i t s y s te m a tic a lly in t e r r e la t e s a number o f c r it e r io n m easures o f h o r iz o n ta l m o b ility and o ccu p a tio n a l m easures o f v e r t ic a l m o b ility . In a d d itio n , as a by product o f th e above a n a ly s e s, r e p lic a t io n o f some p rev io u s h o r iz o n ta l and v e r t i c a l m o b ility research i s undertaken. In th e a n a ly s is o f v e r t ic a l m o b ility , a "new* 1 s t a t i s t i c , gamma, i s u t i l i z e d to determ ine th e e x te n t o f v e r t ic a l m o b ility and the r e - 27 s u it s are compared w ith p r e v io u sly u t i l i z e d s t a t i s t i c s . The resea rch i s an e x te n s io n o f cu rren t knowledge about h o r iz o n ta l and v e r t ic a l m o b ility . I t le a d s to fu rth er understanding o f occupa t io n a l ch a n g es, th e ir r e la tio n s h ip to r e s id e n t ia l m oves, and t h e ir in flu e n c e upon th e contemporary e c o lo g ic a l and s o c ia l str u c tu r e o f 28 urban com m unities. L . A. Goodman and W. H. K ruskal, l o c . c i t . For an example where Gamma has been used to i l l u s t r a t e problems s im ila r to the ones tr e a ted in t h i s r e p o r t, see M orris Z e ld itc h , J r . , A B a sic Course in S o c io lo g ic a l S t a t i s t i c s (New York: Henry H o lt and Comparer, 1959)* pp . 1 80- l 8£>T" 28 As an example o f r ese a rc h th a t has r e la te d '•m igration1 ' to a s o c ia l problem , see Benjamin M aizberg and E v er e tt S . L ee, M igration and M ental D isea se : A Study o f F ir s t A dm issions to H o sp ita ls fo r M ental D is e a s e . New York, 1939— 19^1 (New York: S o c ia l S cien ce R esearch C o u n cil, 1 9 5 6 ). 18 IV. The P lan o f th e R esearch Chapters I and I I in trod u ces th e problem under in v e s tig a tio n and p rovid es a d e s c r ip tio n o f th e s e t t i n g , study d e s ig n , sample procedure, and f i e l d work. Chapter I I I p ro vid es the g en eral frame o f r e fe r e n c e , d e f in it io n s , and em p irica l in d ic a to r s o f c o n c e p ts. In a d d itio n , the h yp otheses fo r t e s t are form u lated . Chapter IV has a d is c u s sio n o f seme o f th e m eth od ological problems in volved in m easuring occu p ation al v e r t ic a l m o b ility . In a d d itio n , i t d e scr ib e s th e occu p ation al ca re e r and in ter g e n e ra tio n a l exp erien ce o f the sample o f respondents u t iliz e d in t h i s resea rch . In Chapter V, a d is c u s sio n o f sev e r a l d if f e r e n t c r it e r io n measures o f r e s id e n t ia l m o b ility and an em p irica l a n a ly s is o f th e ex p erien ces o f th e panel members i s undertaken. Chapter VI through X d escrib e th e r e s u lt s o f th e em p irica l ana l y s i s r e la t in g a number o f c r it e r io n measures o f r e s id e n t ia l m o b ility to some occu p ation al m o b ility d im en sion s. F in a lly , th e l a s t chapter c o n s is t s o f a summary, c o n c lu sio n s, and su g g e stio n s fo r fu rth er re search . CHAPTER II STUDY DESIGH A M D SAM PLE PROCEDURES I . In tro d u ctio n T his ch ap ter d e sc r ib e s th e c h o ic e o f Los A n geles a s a u n iv e r se o f stu d y , th e o b j e c tiv e s o f th e stu d y d e s ig n , and th e manner in which the study d e sig n was im plem ented. The lo c u s o f t h is resea rch was th e Los A n geles Standard M etro p o lita n S t a t i s t i c a l Area.^ The fo c u s i s on a com plete m etro p o lita n area w hich c o n tr o ls fo r m o b ility d eterm in an ts a sso c ia te d w ith a v a r ie t y o f suburbs, sk id r o a d s, r e c r e a tio n a l tow n s, retirem en t v i l l a g e s , and ham lets found w ith in a la r g e m e tr o p o lis. L os A ngeles has been c h a r a c te r iz e d a s an unique urban developm ent 2 by se v e r a l w r it e r s . Los A n geles was th e f i r s t m e tr o p o lita n area to grow up w ith th e autom obile and was a foreru n n er in th e d e c e n tr a liz a tio n o f p o p u la tio n , m an ufacturin g, and r e t a i l tr a d e . The Los A n geles In i 9 6 0 , th e Los A ngeles M etro p o lita n S t a t i s t i c a l A rea in clu d ed Los A n geles and Orange C o u n ties. On O ctober 1 8 , 19&3» Orange County was removed from th e Los A ngeles-Long Beach Standard M etro p o lita n S t a t i s t i c a l Area and d esig n a ted a s th e Orange County Standard Metropo l i t a n S t a t i s t i c a l A rea. % or an e x p r e ssio n o f t h is v iew , see C ynthia L in d sa y , The N a tiv es Are R e s t le s s (P h ila d elp h ia : J . B . L ip p in c o tt, I n c ., i 960) ; a more academ ic p o rtra y a l o f t h is p o s it io n i s g iv e n in Arthur G rey, J r . , "Los A ngeles Urban P r o to ty p e , n Land E conom ics, 35 (A ugu st, 1959) p PP» 23 2 - 2k2. 20 mode o f branch sto r e r e t a i l i n g , th e s in g le fam ily ranch h o u se, and 3 d r iv e -in s e r v ic e s a r e coming t o c h a r a cter iz e th e r e s t o f urban Am erica. In a d d itio n , i t i s li k e oth er m etro p o lita n c en ters w ith r esp e c t to the intracomm unity str u c tu r e o f m anufacturing, com m ercial, and r e s id e n t ia l lo c a tio n which have r esu lted from c i t y grow th,^ and the p a tte rn s o f neighborhood d if f e r e n t ia t io n a re th o se th a t have been found in other m etro p o lita n a r e a s. ^Grey, l o c . c i t . ^There are some in d ic a tio n s th a t th e Los A ngeles exp erien ce o f m ig ra tio n i s somewhat d if f e r e n t than th a t experienced by o th er c i t i e s . For exam ple, San F ran cisco and Los A n geles were found to have more m o b ility than C hicago, P h ila d e lp h ia , S t . P au l, or New Haven. See Sey mour M. L ip s e t and Reinhard B en dix, S o c ia l M o b ility in In d u str ia l Society (B erk eley and Los A ngeles: U n iv e r sity o f C a lifo r n ia P r e s s , 1 9 ^ 3 ),p. 149* In a d d itio n , th e r e are d a ta which in d ic a te th a t the w hite popula tio n o f Los A ngeles ex p erien ces oatH m igration o f a d if f e r e n t so r t than th a t o f oth er la r g e c i t i e s . S ee E arl F . Taeuber and Alma F . Taeuber, "White M igration and Socio-Econom ic D iffe r e n c e s Between C it ie s and Suburbs," American S o c io lo g ic a l R eview , 29 (O ctober, V)&k) , p . 727* U n fo rtu n a tely , in a companion a r t i c l e on the nonwhite p o p u la tio n , th e Taeubers elim in a ted Los A ngeles from t h e ir a n a ly s is . C f. E arl £ . Taeuber and Alma F . Taeuber, "The Changing C haracter o f Negro M igration," The American Journal o f S o c io lo g y . 70 (January, 1965)* pp« k29~m$.. These fin d in g s must be h eld in su sp ect in th a t they may p o ssib ly be exp lain ed by -the unusual c o n fig u r a tio n of p o l i t i c a l boundaries "that make up American c i t i e s . C it ie s in th e United S ta te s have boundaries which may r e s u lt in c la s s if i c a t i o n s o f "city" and "suburb" in flu e n c in g reported r e s u l t s . See J e ffr e y K. Hadden, "Suburbs: Concept or Hodge- Podge?" paper p resen ted a t th e American S o c io lo g ic a l A sso c ia tio n Meet in g s , M on treal, Canada, Septem ber, 19&U* ^See E sh ref Shevky and W endell B e l l , S o c ia l Area A n a ly sis. Theory, I llu s t r a t iv e A p p lic a tio n , and Computational Procedures (S tan ford : S ta n - ford U n iv e r sity P r e s s , 19 5 5 ); Eahref Shevky and M arilyn W illia m s, The S o c ia l Areas o f Los A n g eles. A n a ly sis and Typology (Los A n geles: U n iv er- s it y o f C a lifo r n ia P r e s s , 19^ 9); M aurice D. Van A rsd o l, J r . , C alvin F . Schmid, and Santo F . C a m ille r i, "The G en era lity o f Urban S o c ia l Area In d ex es," American S o c io lo g ic a l R eview , 23 (June 1 9 5 8 ), pp. 277“ 28ij; and B everly Duncan, Georges Sabagh, and Maurice D. Van A rsd ol, J r . , "P atterns o f C ity Growth," American Journal o f S o c io lo g y , 67 (Jan. ,1962), pp.i4l8-/|29* Comparisons betw een Los A ngeles and oth er m etro p o lita n com plexes su g g est th a t Los A ngeles d if f e r s in i t s g rea ter r a te o f p o p u la tio n growth and th u s the urban phenomena accompanying growth are in t e n s if ie d . Los A ngeles i s an urban prototype in i t s e a r ly developm ent o f a facade th a t i s craning to ty p ify American c i t i e s in t h i s , the l a t t e r h a lf o f the tw en tieth cen tu ry. I t s s p a tia l p a ttern in g and neighborhood str u c tu res ,conform to g e n e r a liz a tio n s observed fo r oth er American c i t i e s , and i t i s ty p ic a l in th e la r g er sen se o f fo llo w in g the p a st h is to r y o f oth er m etro p o lita n a r e a s and rep resen tin g a new p a ttern o f fu tu r e metro p o lita n developm ent. G iven th ese c o n s id e r a tio n s , Los A ngeles p rovid es a p r a c tic a l lo c a le fo r th e study o f in tra m etro p o lita n r e s id e n t ia l m o b ility . I I . O b.jectives o f th e Study Design* The study plan was t o o b ta in inform ation on non-m overs, m overs, and p o p u lation s rep la cin g movers in th e Los A ngeles m etro p o lita n a r ea . T h e o re tic a l c o n sid e r a tio n s le d t o a lo n g itu d in a l d e s ig n , w ith th e fo llo w in g requirem ents: ( l ) Data would be obtained fo r a panel o f respondents a t two p o in ts in tim e, (2 ) The panel would be observed fo r a one year p erio d , and (3 ) Panel members would be drawn from tiie v a r ie ty o f neighborhoods c h a r a c t e r is tic o f a la r g e m etro p o lita n a rea . *For th e la rg er stu d y o f w hich t h is resea rch i s a p a r t, th e r e were two a d d itio n a l o b je c tiv e s of th e study d e sig n , a s fo llo w s : ( l ) I t should be p o ssib le to sim u lta n eo u sly co n tro l fo r both in d iv id u a l and neighborhood c h a r a c te r is tic s a f f e c t in g r e s id e n t ia l m o b ility , and ( 2 ) The d e sig n should f a c i l i t a t e in tra fa m ily com parisons w ith in th e fs m ily groups o f th e p a n el. 22 O b servation o f a P an el Through Time The f i r s t e s s e n t ia l elem ent o f th e d e sig n was th a t a t t it u d in a l in fo rm a tio n should be obtained on a p ro jected rath er th an an ex p o st fa c to b a s i s . The inform ation , r e t r ie v a l p la n was to g a th er e x te n siv e d ata from respon dents p r io r to th e ir move or d e c is io n to sta y a t a p a r tic u la r p la c e o f r e s id e n c e , and to th en r e la t e th e s e d a ta to sub sequent b e h a v io r . Ex p o st f a c t o d ata were thought to be n ecessa ry in order t o d e s c r ib e r e s id e n c e , employment, fam ily h i s t o r i e s , a s w e ll as r e t r o s p e c t iv e r e s id e n t ia l m o b ility . One Y ear O b servation o f the Panel A v a ila b le d a ta from th e Current P o p u la tio n Survey in d ic a te th a t in tra m etro p o lita n r e s id e n t ia l m o b ility in th e Los A ngeles Standard M etro p o lita n S t a t i s t i c a l Area is approxim ately tw e n ty -fiv e per cen t per y e a r .^ T his e stim a te i s fo r a l l r e s id e n t s , more than one year o f a g e , w hether l i v i n g in hou sin g u n its or n o t. In c o n tr a st t o the p r o je c ted n atu re o f th is stu d y , th e Current P o p u la tio n Survey estim a tes are r e tr o s p e c tiv e and th e two k in d s o f r a te s are not d ir e c t ly comparable, a lth o u g h th ey should b e o f the same approxim ate l e v e l . A g iv e n m o b ility r a te o b scu res th e c o n tr ib u tio n o f rep eated sh o rt term m o b ility to the 7 m o b ility r a te i n American c i t i e s . A fo c u s on a period o f tim e g rea ter ^ 0 . S . Bureau o f th e C ensus, Current P o p u la tio n R ep o rts, S e r ie s P - 2 0 , Eo. 1 1 8 , August 9> 1962, p . 15* 7 G o ld s te in , S id n ey , H Repeated M ig ration a s a F actor in High. Mobi l i t y R a te s," American S o c io lo g ic a l R eview , 19 (O ctober 1 9 5 6 ), pp. 536- 5* 1 1. 23 than one y ear would then lea d to an a t t r i t i o n o f th o se respon dents who move more fr e q u e n tly . On the oth er hand, i t i s n ecessa ry to u se a p eriod o f tim e lon g en ou gh .to o b ta in a m o b ility r a te s u f f i c ie n t ly h ig h to g en era te adequate movers fo r com parisons w ith nor>-movers. In view o f th e se c o n s id e r a tio n s , a d e c is io n was made to observe m o b ility f o r a one year p e r io d . R ep resen tin g th e Range o f Urban Worlds A th ir d elem ent o f th e d e sig n was th a t th e sample would r e f l e c t th e wide v a r ie t y o f urban w orlds found in the Los A ngeles m e tr o p o lita n a r e a . The Los A ngeles m etro p o lita n a rea i s th e th ir d la r g e s t in th e U nited S t a t e s . In 19^0, th e SM SA in clu d ed b oth Los A ngeles and Orange 8 C o u n ties, and c o n siste d o f 14, 81*2 square m ile s o f land area in c lu d in g snow capped m ountains, in la n d v a lle y s under in te n se c u lt iv a t io n , parched d e s e r t r e g io n s, o ffsh o r e is la n d s , and more than 100 m ile s o f wavewashed c o a s t l i n e s . N orth-sou th and e a st-w e st d ista n c e in th e r e g io n are approxim ately 100 m ile s . A n orth ern boundary fo r th e San Fernando V a lle y i s formed by th e Santa Susanna M ountains, alon g w ith the San G abriel M ountains, which d e lim it th e s p a r se ly s e t t le d m ountain and d e s e r t reg io n s com prising th e north ern h a lf o f th e r e g io n . The Santa Monica M ountains, w hich o u t lin e a tr ia n g le w ith th e base in the extrem e w estern p o r tio n o f th e area n orth o f M alibu and w ith an apex p oin ted a t Pasadena, c o n s t i tu te th e sou th ern boundary o f th e San Fernando V a lle y , and th e north w estern boundary o f the Los A ngeles p la in . V aried topography o f th e ®See F o o tn o te 1 . reg io n has made fo r m icro clim a tic d iffe r e n c e s betw een th e in t e r io r v a lle y s and th e c o o ler c o a s t a l and mountain a r e a s , and has channeled th e lo c a tio n o f so c ia l and economic a c t iv it y in to the Southern v a lle y s . The m etro p o lita n area th u s co n ta in s p op u la tio n s from a range o f en v i ronm ents, from rural farms to d en sely populated cores o f c e n tr a l c i t i e s . A d e c is io n was made to s e le c t the w id est p o s s ib le range of such areas to a llo w th e sample d e sig n to r e f l e c t many a sp e cts o f urban l i f e . I I I . The Study P lan The stud y o b je c tiv e s c a lle d fo r a summer 19&1 area p r o b a b ility sample o f th e ad u lt h ou sin g u n it p o p u lation o f the Los A n geles metro p o lita n a r e a , and r e -in te r v ie w s w ith t h is respondent panel one year la t e r during th e summer o f 1962. Data were a ls o to be obtained from o spouses r e s id in g w ith th e respondents in terview ed in 1961. As a r e s u lt o f th e fo llo w u p , respondents were c l a s s i f i e d as "non-movers" i f th ey remained a t t h e ir r e sid e n c e , or as "movers" i f th ey s h ifte d to another hou sin g u n it e ith e r w ith in or o u tsid e o f th e m etro p o lita n a r ea . Furtherm ore, th ose housing u n its vacated by out-m overs were p o te n tia l p la c e s o f resid en ce fo r "in-movers" rep la cin g the out-m oving p o p u la tio n . A ll non-m overs, out-m overs, and housing u n its in which p o t e n tia l in movers could r e sid e were included in the 1962 p a n el. The sample p la n , f i e l d o p e r a tio n s, and in ter v ie w sch ed u les were developed to e l i c i t a tt it u d in a l and b eh a v io ra l resp on ses w ith r e sp e c t to a l l o r ig in a l r e s pondents and th e ir sp o u ses. ^The spouse form d a ta were not u t iliz e d in t h is r e p o r t. IV. The O rigin al Sample Overview P relim in ary c o s t e stim a te s and exp erien ce gained from two p r e te st stu d ie s in d ica ted th a t th e sample should be lim ite d to approxim ately 1,200 housing u n i t s . A m u ltista g e area p r o b a b ility sample d e sig n was 10 used fo r housing u n it s e le c t io n and a respondent s e le c t io n d ev ice suggested by Kish'*’' * ' was adapted to determ ine in d iv id u a l respondents w ith in housing u n i t s . The sam pling plan included s e le c t io n o f appro xim a tely 1,200 hou sing u n its a llo c a te d a t th e r a te o f one housing u n it per b lo c k , two b lo c k s per enum eration d i s t r i c t , and two enum eration d i s t r i c t s fo r each o f 300 tr a c ts s e le c te d from the 12+03 census tr a c ts in th e Los A ngeles m etro p o lita n a r e a . Comparisons w ith i 960 census data in d ica ted th a t th e sample i s r e p r e se n ta tiv e o f th e t o t a l metro p o lita n area w ith th e e x ce p tio n o f th e Negro p op u lation which was s e r io u s ly u n d er-rep resen ted . Census Tract S e le c t io n Three hundred tr a c ts w ere s e le c te d p rop ortion al to th e s iz e o f th e ir p o p u la tio n s, on th e b a s is o f prelim in ary Bureau o f the Census p o p u lation counts fo r each o f th e cen su s tr a c ts in Los A ngeles and ^ O t i s Dudley Duncan o f the U n iv e r sity o f M ichigan su ggested the use o f t h is type o f sample d e sig n . ^ L e s l i e K ish , "A Procedure f o r O b jective Respondent S e le c tio n w ith in th e H ousehold," Journal of th e American S t a t i s t i c a l A s s o c ia tio n . 12* (192+9), PP* 380-387* 26 12 Orange C ounties a s of A p ril 1 , i 9 6 0 . The t r a c t s e le c t io n tech n iq u e provided coverage o f a l l geograp h ic s e c tio n s o f th e m etro p o lita n area and avoided geographic s t r a t i f i c a t i o n by c i t y bou ndaries. Enumeration D is t r ic t S e le c tio n W ithin th e th ree hundred s e le c te d cen su s t r a c t s , approxim ately 600 enum eration d i s t r i c t s were se le c te d p rop ortion al to th e number of housing u n its and a t the r a t e o f two enum eration d i s t r i c t s per cen su s t r a c t . Over-sam pling o f housin g u n its was avoided by c o n str u c tin g "contrived enum eration d is t r ic t s " wherever l e s s than one hundred housing u n its were found w ith in an enum eration d i s t r i c t . T his procedure occa sio n a lly . r e su lte d in only one enumeration d i s t r i c t b ein g chosen in a t r a c t . Thus a t o t a l o f 5^4 enum eration d i s t r i c t s w ere selected in stea d o f the p ro jected 6 0 0 . Block S e le c tio n B locks w ith in s e le c te d enum eration d i s t r i c t s were drawn propor tio n a l t o th e ir estim ated number o f housing u n it s . As cu rren t data were not a v a ila b le , f i e l d procedures were adopted t o gath er e stim a te s o f th e number o f housing u n its w ith in every b lo ck o f th e enum eration d i s t r i c t s in th e sam ple. B lo c k s were chosen a ft e r e stim a tio n of block s iz e b u t b efore p r e lis t in g o f housing u n its was ca rried o u t. An aver age o f three sample b l o c k s were se le c te d a t random i n th e f i e l d w ith p r o b a b ilitie s o f b lo ck s e le c t io n p rop ortion al to th e number o f housing ■^^Preliminary housing u n it counts fo r enum eration d i s t r i c t s as of A p ril 1 , i 960 were obtained from the fo llo w in g s p e c ia l Bureau of th e Census ta b u la tio n s: U. S . Department o f Commerce, Bureau o f th e C ensus, i 960 Census Data o f Loa A ngeles and Orange C o u n ties, Los A n g eles, Brew s te r Mapping S e r v ic e , 1961. 27 u n its w ith in each M o ck . As an aid to determ ining th e hou sing u n its to he s e le c te d w ith in a g iv en b lo c k , an accu rate p r e lis t in g was made o f a l l str u c tu r e s w ith in th e b lo c k . Housing U nit S e le c tio n For each b lock tak en in d iv id u a lly , an a p p lic a tio n o f sampling form ulas was used to s e le c t housing u n it s . The valu e o f the b lock sam p lin g in te r v a l was a fu n c tio n o f a s e r ie s o f p r o b a b ilitie s ; th e r e fo r e , 13 the number o f s e le c te d housing u n its v a ried from b lo ck to b lo c k . P rio r t o th e s e le c t io n o f housing u n its fo r a g iv en b lock a sampling r a t io fo r th e housing u n its w ith in th e b lo ck was determ ined as based on a form ula ta k in g in t o account the t o t a l cen su s d efin ed p o p u lation and housing u n its o f th e m etrop olitan area in I 9 6 0 , the census d e fin ed p o p u la tio n and housing u n its o f th e sampled census tr a c t in i 9 6 0 , th e estim ated housing u n its in th e sampled enum eration d i s t r i c t as determ ined by f i e l d in s p e c tio n , and th e estim ated housing u n its in sampled b lo c k s a s obtained from the 1961 p r e lis t in g o p era tio n . The sampling r a t io s fo r housing u n its were obtained from the fo llo w in g = sampling r a te o f housing u n it w ith b lo ck s = p op u lation o f Los Angeles-O range C ounties in i 960 (6 ,7 2 3 ,3 0 5 ) = hou sin g u n its in Los Angeles-O range C ounties in i 960 (2 ,3 6 9 ,1 5 1 ) = p o p u lation in sampled cen su s t r a c t in i 960 = h ou sin g u n its in sampled census t r a c t in i 960 = housing u n its in sampled enum eration d i s t r i c t in i 960 = estim ated number o f housing u n its in sampled enumera t io n d i s t r i c t obtained in c r u isin g o p era tio n in 1961 = estim ated number of housing u n its in sampled b lo ck s obtained in p r e lis t in g o p eration s in 1961 ^ Khe . j _ Ht Hb Hq ’ FjT H d e f in it io n s : Given: fb P H P t Ht He EHg Hb T herefore: 28 The sampling in te r v a l fo r housing u n its sometimes was g r ea ter than th e number o f estim ated u n its in th e sampled b lo c k , and some s e le c te d b lo ck s had no housing u n it s . Same enum eration d i s t r i c t s and cen su s t r a c t s were elim in ated from th e sample as a r e s u lt o f th e random s e le c t io n proce d u res. I f s e le c te d housing u n its were v a c a n t, no s u b s titu tio n s were made. In a d d itio n , a compensatory d ev ice was developed fo r o b v ia tin g lii p r e lis t in g e rr o r s in housing unit- s e le c t io n . Respondent S e le c tio n The sample was r e p r e se n ta tiv e o f a d u lt housing u n it p o p u la tio n as w e ll a s o f m etro p o lita n housing u n it s . W hile in form ation on cen su s type v a r ia b le s can norm ally be obtained from a resp on sive a d u lt member, a t t it u d in a l and experim ental in form ation can be obtained on ly from the in d iv id u a ls concerned. A ccord in gly, K is h 's ^ random s e le c t io n proce dure was u t i l i z e d t o in clu d e respondents from which both cen su s typ e and a tt itu d in a l q u estio n s would be asked. F ie ld O perations The f i e l d work took p la ce during th e summer o f 19&1 w ith a s t a f f o f fo r ty -fo u r in ter v ie w er s and nine f i e l d su p e r v iso r s. Advance n o t i- ^*At th e end o f each in te r v ie w , respondents were asked a q u estio n concerning th e lo c a tio n o f any d w e llin g u n it betw een th e s e le c te d one and th e next u n it a s l i s t e d on th e p r e l i s t e r ' s enum eration form . I f an extra u n lis te d housing u n it was found, an in terv iew was condu cted . An assum ption was th a t th ese would be a randomly se le c te d sample o f m issed housing u n it s . ^Kish, op . c i t . In order to in su re i t s intended u s e , respondent s e le c t io n procedure was made p rio r to f i e l d work and in terv iew er a s s ig n ment o f sch ed u les fo r s p e c if ic housing u n it s . f ic a t io n l e t t e r s were se n t to th e s e le c te d housing u n it s . F ie ld super v is o r s accompanied in ter v ie w er s on i n i t i a l in te r v ie w s, f i e l d su p ervisors checked subsamples o f th e in te r v ie w s, and w ere resp o n sib le for i n i t i a l e d itin g o f th e in terv iew sc h e d u le s. Several Negro in ter v ie w er s were u sed , and procedures w ere e f f e c t e d t o avoid c r o ss r a c ia l in ter v ie w s w ith resp e c t to Negroes and non-N egroes. Spanish and Japanese speaking in terv iew ers a ls o w ere used ■w hen n ecessa ry . No s u b s titu tio n s o f respondents were p erm ited , and there was an average o f two v i s i t s to th e s e le c te d housing u n it s . The mean in te r view tim e was one hour and f i f t e e n m in u tes, w ith a range approxim ately from one to th re e h ou rs. Response R ates Table 1 in d ic a te s the d is p o s it io n o f the housing u n it sam ple. Of l , l 6 5 housing u n its s e le c te d in th e sam ple, 6 .8 p e r c e n t were v a ca n t, and in terv iew ers were unable to lo c a te respondents in 2 .3 p ercen t of th e occupied housing u n it s . Of th e p o te n tia l resp on d en ts, 7*^1 percent refu sed or were unable to grant in te r v ie w s. The response r a te fo r the a v a ila b le sam ple, which ex clu d es u n lo ca ted p o te n tia l resp on d en ts, was 9 2 .5 p ercen t. F ollow -up F ie ld O perations Follow -up in ter v ie w s took p la ce during th e summer of 1962, or one year a ft e r th e i n i t i a l in te r v ie w . A com bination o f telep h o n e c o n ta c ts , m ail b a l l o t s , and personal in ter v ie w s were used to e s t a b lis h the 1962 r e s id e n t ia l lo c a tio n and o b ta in d ata from th e o r ig in a l resp on d en ts. Ten in terv iew ers were used fo r t h is phase o f the f i e l d o p e r a tio n s. 30 As a r e s u lt o f the fo llo w -u p o p e r a tio n s, 2 2 .9 psanEgmt o f th e l i v i n g pan el members were c l a s s i f i e d a s movers w h ile 7 ^-1. p e r c e n t were determ ined to be nort-movers. Two resp on d en ts had di©t£ im th e in terim p eriod and were excluded from a n a ly s is . I l l . In terv iew Schedule The in ter v ie w sch ed ule evolved from a review o f lit e r a t u r e and from r e s u lt s o f two ex p lo ra to ry p r e t e s t s . One p r e t e s t w as conducted in an urban and suburban area o f the Los A ngeles metrepElitfflEi a r e a . ^ A second was ca rried out on a p u rp osive sample o f sah araas d if f e r in g w ith r e s p e c t to l e v e l s o f s o c ia l s t a t u s , degree o f u ih a n im tim n , and r a c ia l co m p o sitio n . These p r e te s ts were used to develop specialiL zsd m easuring in stru m en ts and to secu re and tr a in an in ter v ie w s t e f f f .fa m ilia r w ith resea rch g o a ls and o b j e c t iv e s . The in ter v ie w schedule was co n stru cted so th a t a gmtrfrer o f geo graphic and v e r t ic a l m o b ility m easures would b e a v a il)sh le to t e s t the h y p o th esized r e la tio n s h ip o f v e r t ic a l and h o r iz o n ta l m m foility. These v a r ia b le s inclu ded n ot on ly r e s id e n t ia l and occnpaifam sl m o b ility d im en sio n s, but were such th a t ch an ges, e it h e r "rsaE1 " aar p e r c e iv e d , were m easured. iURe s u it s o f th e f i r s t p r e te s t have been rep orted im Edgar W. B u tle r , " R esid en tia l M o b ility in Los A n g eles,J TrnpnfolisdBffdi H- A . t h e s is , U n iv e r s ity o f Southern C a lifo r n ia , 19&2; and Edgar IT. Statfcler, Georges Sabagh, and M aurice D. Van A rsd o l, "Demographic a id Seed ml P sych olo g ic a l F a cto rs in R e sid e n tia l M o b ility ," S o cio lo g y and S o c ia l R esearch 2+8 (January, 196I+), pp. 132+-151+. 31 Table 1 - The Number and P ercent o f the H ousing Unit Sample and A v a ila b le Sample C la s s ifie d A ccording to Reasons fo r not B eing Enumerated Sample D e sc r ip tio n s P ercen t P ercen t o f P ercen t o f Reasons fo r o f Housing O r ig in a l A v a ila b le Non-enumeration Number U n its Sample Sample# (1 ) Respondents not lo c a te d 25 ♦## 2 .3 *## (2) Respondents refu sed or un a b le to answer 80 ### 7 7 .5 (3) T otal respond e n ts enumerated 981 ##♦ 9 0 .3 9 2 .5 (k ) A v a ila b le sample## 106l ♦#♦ 9 7 -7 100 .0 (5 ) O rig in a l sample (occu p ied hous in g u n its )♦♦ 1086 9 3 .2 1 0 0 .0 ♦#♦ (6) Vacant housing u n its# # 79 6 .8 ♦♦♦ ♦ft# (7) T otal housing u n its 1165 1 0 0 .0 u u w vfrir ♦ft# ♦E xcludes respondents not lo ca ted ♦♦ In clu d es housing u n its added through use of a q u estio n on th e Housing U nit F ie ld Form ♦##Not a p p lic a b le fo r percentage com putation IV. Summary This chapter d escrib ed th e c h o ic e o f Los A n geles a s a u n iv e r se o f stu d y , the o b je c tiv e s o f th e stu d y d e s ig n , and th e manner in which th e study d e sig n was im plem ented. I t was decided t h a t alth ou gh Los A ngeles has been ch a ra cterized as an unique urban developm ent by some w r it e r s , in many r e s p e c ts such as p a tte r n s o f neighborhood d if f e r e n t i a t i o n , i t appears to be a p roto ty p e th a t i s coming to t y p if y American m e tr o p o lis e s. Los A n g e le s, th e n , provided a p r a c tic a l lo c a le fo r th e study o f urban r e s id e n t ia l m o b ility . There were th re e m ajor o b j e c tiv e s o f th e study d e s ig n , th e s e were: ( l ) D ata should- be obtained f o r a panel o f respon dents a t two p o in ts in tim e; (2 ) The p an el would be observed fo r a one year p erio d ; and (3 ) Panel members would be drawn from a v a r ie t y o f neighborhoods cha r a c t e r is t ic o f a la r g e m etro p o lita n a r ea . A m u ltista g e area p r o b a b ility sam ple was s e le c t e d . Census tr a c ts were s e le c te d p ro p ortion al to the s iz e o f t h e ir p o p u la tio n s and w ith in each s e le c te d cen su s t r a c t , two enum eration d i s t r i c t s were in clu d ed in th e sam ple. B locks were s e le c te d p rop o rtio n a l to t h e ir e stim a ted num ber o f housin g u n it s . W ithin each b lo c k , h ou sin g u n it s were s e le c te d on th e b a s is o f a form ula w hich was a fu n c tio n o f a s e r ie s o f probab i l i t i e s . R espondents in each household were s e le c te d on a random s e le c t io n b a s is . F ie ld o p era tio n s r e s u lte d in a resp on se r a te o f 9^*5 p e r c e n t. F ollow -up o p era tio n s one year a f t e r th e i n i t i a l in te r v ie w re stilte d in th e fin d in g th a t two d ea th s occu rred , and 2 2 .9 p ercen t o f th e h o u se- 33 h old s had moved whereas 77*1 p ercen t remained in t h e ir resid en ce o f the p reviou s y e a r . The in ter v ie w sch ed u le evolved from a review of th e lit e r a t u r e and a s a r e s u lt o f two ex p lo ra to ry p r e t e s t s . The in ter v ie w schedule c o n siste d o f a number o f item s -which measured v a rio u s a sp e c ts o f h o r i zo n ta l and v e r t ic a l m o b ility . Chapter III F R A M E O F REFERENCE I . In tro d u ctio n No gen era l th e o r e tic a l framework c u r r e n tly e x is t s which in t e r r e la t e s h o r iz o n ta l and v e r t ic a l m o b ility . C onsequently t h is study i s based m ainly on p reviou s research w hich su ggested a gen eral frame o f r eferen ce and h y p o th eses f o r t e s t . A major g o a l o f th is resea rch is to e s t a b lis h an em p irical b a s is fo r e v a lu a tin g th e in te r r e la tio n s h ip o f v e r t ic a l m o b ility and r e s id e n t ia l m oves. I f t h is go a l can be ac com p lish ed , p ro g ress w ill have been made toward a lim ite d th eo ry w ith t e n t a t iv e ly supported p r o p o sitio n s.^ The rem ainder o f t h i s ch a p ter i s d iv id ed in to th ree s e c t io n s . A f i r s t s e c t io n d e fin e s and d e s c r ib e s th e em p irical in d ic a to r s o f th e p r in c ip a l con cep ts u t i l i z e d t o the t e s t h yp oth eses in t e r r e la t in g v e r t i c a l and h o r iz o n ta l m o b ility . H ypotheses and th e ir resea rch and specu l a t i v e b a s is a re d escrib ed in th e second s e c t io n . In th e f in a l s e c t io n o f t h is c h a p ter, a summary i s p resen ted . 1 In t h is regard , see Georges Sabagh and M aurice D. Van A r sd o l, J r . , " R e sid en tia l M o b ility W ithin Los A ngeles County," unpublished m an u scrip t, The U n iv e r s ity o f Southern C a lifo r n ia , 1959* 35 I I . Concepts: D e fin itio n s and In d ic a to r s Each major concept u t i l i z e d in t h is rep o rt i s d efin ed and th e em pirical- in d ic a to r s of each are d e lin e a te d below . Head o f Household The u n it o f a n a ly sis i n th is resea rch i s the male head o f house h o ld . The a n a ly s is was a r b it r a r ily r e s t r ic t e d in t h is manner to e l i m inate th e confounding fa c to r o f fe m a le heads o f households and the 2 atten d a n t problem of c o n tr o llin g fo r s e x . C la s s if ic a t io n o f heads o f hou sehold s was determ ined by in ter v ie w er s who recorded the respon dent’ s answer t o the fo llo w in g q u estio n : "To s t a r t , w i l l you p lea se t e l l me who the head of th e household i s , and the r e la tio n s h ip s o f th e r e s t o f the people liv in g here to t h i s p erson?” Every household in which a m ale, 21 years o f age or over was d esig n a ted by the respondent as head, was c la s s if ie d a s having a male head of household and was included in a l l o f the a n a ly se s th a t fo llo w in the remainder of t h i s r e p o r t. House h o ld s th a t did not have a male person 21 y ea rs of age or over refer re d to by th e in terv iew ee as head o f household were elim in ated from a n a ly s is . ^Parsons has in d ica ted "that th e r e has t o be a broad c o r r e la tio n betw een d ir e c t e v a lu a tio n o f occu p ation al r o le s , income d erived from th o se r o le s , and s ta tu s o f th e fa m ilie s of th e incumbents as c o l l e c t i v i t i e s in the s c a le of s t r a t i f i c a t i o n . ” See T a lc o tt P arsons, "A Re v is e d A n a ly tica l Approach to the Theory of S o c ia l S t r a t i f i c a t i o n ,” C la s s , S tatu s and Power, e d s ., Mnhard Bendix and Seymour M. L ip se t (G le n c o e ,_ I llin o is : The F ree P r e ss , 1 9 5 3 ), p . 120. This i s n o t an assum ption, how ever, which should be accep ted un c r i t i c a l l y . See Charles F . W esto ff, Marvin B r e s s le r , and P h ilip C. S a g i, "The Concept of S o c ia l M o b ility : An E m pirical In q u iry ,” American S o c io lo g ic a l R eview , 2$ (J u n e, i 960) , p . 376. Of the 9^1 o r ig in a l panel members, tw o, or 0 .3 per c e n t , died and were dropped from th e sam ple. Of th e 979 liv in g members, 129 > or 13*1 per c e n t, were elim in a ted from c o n sid e r a tio n on th e b a s is o f not liv in g in a household w iih a male head 21 y ea rs o f age or over. There were 8 5 0 , or 8 6 .6 per c e n t, o f the sample who were in fa m ilie s w ith a member who was c l a s s i f i e d a s a m ale head o f hou seh old , and th e se heads formed th e b a sic sub-sam ple fo r the a n a ly se s. S o c ia l S ta tu s S o c ia l sta tu s may be broadly d efin ed as a p o s itio n or sta tu s in a (s o c ia l) system . There i s anple evid en ce th a t a p erso n 's g en eral s ta tu s 3 may be measured by h is occu p ation . In terv iew sch ed u le item resp on ses were u t iliz e d to determ ine occu p a tio n s o f fa th e r s and sons which were then c la s s if ie d in to an index o f s o c ia l s t a t u s . The occu p ation of ihe head of th e household was d e te r mined by th e fo llo w in g qu estion : What kind o f work (d oes) (d id )* the head o f household do? (Record th e job in a s p e c if ic way: i . e . , 8th grade te a c h e r, p a in t sp ra y er, rep a irs T V s e t s , grocery check er, e t c . I f work a t more th an one jo b , in d ic a te the job th a t th e most tim e i s spent o n .) O ccupation a t v a rio u s p o in ts in tim e fo r the male head o f th e household and fo r th e fa th e r of th e male head o f the household were determ ined by * I f head o f household was not c u r re n tly working, in form ation was obtained fo r the l a s t h eld job . ■hjipset and Bendix accep t t h is assum ption and p o in t out th a t i t i s supported by a good d ea l o f em p irical ev id en ce. See Seymour M. L ip s e t and Reinhard B endix, S o c ia l M o b ility in In d u str ia l S o c ie ty (B erk eley and Los A ngeles: U n iv e r sity o f C a lifo r n ia P r e ss , 1963) , p* 26 9 . 37 sim ila r q u estio n s w ith only s l i g h t v a r ia tio n s t o f i t th e s it u a t io n so th a t the d e sire d in form ation would be o b ta in ed . Of the la r g e number o f c l a s s i f i c a t i o n schemes a v a ila b le , the index chosen to c l a s s i f y occu p ation s i s Duncan's socioeconom ic in d ex , here a f t e r referred to as SES.'* T his p a r tic u la r ind ex i s based on d ata from the 1950 U nited S ta te s census and ta k es in to c o n sid e r a tio n the amount o f ed u cation and income o f persons in a la r g e number o f o ccu p a tio n s. The SES index has been dem onstrated to have a h ig h c o r r e la tio n w ith N O R C sco res and th erefo re a ls o can be con sid ered as a measure o f th e p r e s tig e o f an / ■ in d iv id u a l. ^*For exam ples, see th e fo llo w in g : Edwards, A lb a M ., Comparative O ccupation S t a t i s t i c s fo r th e U nited S t a t e s , I 87O-19I 4 O (W ashington, D .C .: Government P r in tin g O ff ic e , 19^3} J A lb ert J . R e is s , J r . , w ith c o lla b o r a t o r s , O ccupations and S o c ia l S ta tu s (New York: The Free P r e ss o f G lencoe, 1961); and W. Lloyd Warner, M arcia M eeker, and K. E e l l s , S o c ia l C la ss in America (C hicago: "Science R esearch A s s o c ia te s , 19^9)* Duncan and Hodge conclude th a t th e SES index i s more s u ita b le fo r m easuring m o b ility than i s c l a s s i f i c a t i o n by major census occu p ation al groups. See O tis Dudley Duncan and Robert W . Hodge, " E d u cation and Oc cu p a tio n a l M o b ility : A R eg ressio n A n a ly sis," American Journal o f Socio lo g y . 68 (May, 1963) , p . 6 3 1 . 'fa e iss a t a l . , _op. c i t . Duncan and Hodge, l o c . c i t . , have p oin ted out two lim ita tio n s o f th e index: ( l ) D i f f ic u lt y in m easuring fan n ers and nonfarmers on th e same s c a le ; and (2 ) As a r e s u lt o f a la ck o f in form ation, i t must ign o re spatiotem p oral v a r ia tio n w ith in SES c a te g o r ie s . W e would h a sten to p o in t out th a t th e above d i f f i c u l t i e s a re inhe ren t in a l l o f the p r e v io u sly m entioned in d ic e s and th e r e fo r e a re not p e c u lia r to th e Duncan SES in d ex . The SES index does avoid th e problem o f d e a lin g on ly w ith p r e s t ig e . I t i s a measure w hich a llo w s th e study o f movement betw een stratum which are o b je c tiv e ly id e n t if ie d . See th e fo llo w in g f o r a d is c u s sio n o f th e d e s ir a b ilit y o f th is kin d o f measurement. L ip se t and B endix, op. c i t . , p . 272. ^R eiss e t a l . , l o o , c i t . C arlsson has d isc u sse d th e r o le o f occu p a tio n s in the d eterm in a tio n o f p r e s tig e and in d ic a te s th a t occu p ation i s th e b e st in d ic a to r when l im it s are imposed upon oth er v a r ia b le s . An added advantage i s th a t occu p ation s perm it a range o f " p o sitio n s." See Gosta C a rlsso n , S o c ia l M o b ility and C la ss S tru ctu re (Lund: C N K G leerup, 1 9 5 8 ), pp. 38 For th e purposes o f a n a ly s is , occu p ation s and th e ir r e sp e c tiv e sco res have b een d iv id ed in to fo u r major c l a s s e s . In a d d itio n , for some o f th e a n a ly se s, farm ers are sep arated from th e remainder o f the 7 sam ple. The fou r b a s ic c l a s s i f i c a t i o n s are a s fo llo w s : C ategory SES S cores Low 00 - 19 Low-Middle 20 - 39 H igh-M iddle i+0 - 59 H igh ' 60 and over The groupings fo r the lo w , low -m id dle, and high -m id dle c a te g o r ie s were based upon observed d is t r ib u t io n s breaks in SES s c o r e s. The d iv is io n betw een th e high -m id dle and th e h ig h e s t group were based upon an a r t i f a c t o f th e SES ind ex i t s e l f . Most o f th e p r o fe s sio n a ls have sco res g rea ter th an 6 0 , and p r o fe s s io n a ls who are n ot elsew here c l a s s i f i e d , r e c e iv e a sco re o f 6 0 . In t h is r e s p e c t, th en , i t was decid ed th a t as many a s p o s s ib le o f th e p r o fe s s io n a ls should be kept in one ca te g o ry . T his low ered th e score fo r h ig h e s t occu p ation al c la s s somewhat more than m ight be d e sire d and in creased th e N fo r t h is ca teg o ry ; however, no r a tio n a l could be found to d iv id e the p r o fe ssio n a l group on any oth er b a s is . ^ liaiy p rev io u s s tu d ie s o f o ccu p ation al m o b ility have elim in a ted farm ers in t h e ir a n a ly s is . For an exam ple, see Harry J . C ro ck ett, J r . , "The Achievem ent M otive and D if f e r e n t ia l O ccupational M o b ility ," Ameri can S o c io lo g ic a l R eview . 27 (A p r il, 1962) , p . 196. For a stud y where farm ers are tr e a te d in a system which d isc r im in a te s w ith in th e farmer group, see th e fo llo w in g : C a rlsso n , l o c . c i t . , pp. 1+9-51 • S o c ia l M o b ility S o c ia l m o b ility i s d efin ed as v e r t ic a l movement o f p eop le between g p o s itio n s th a t are on d if f e r e n t s o c ia l l e v e l s . This movement may be upward, downward, or flu c t u a tin g . Furtherm ore, a person can remain re l a t i v e l y s t a b iliz e d in a p o s itio n . Two major dim ensions o f s o c ia l mobi l i t y are analyzed in t h i s research; th ey are in tra g e n e r a tio n a l and 9 in te r g e n e r a tio n a l m o b ility . In tr a g e n e ra tio n a l m o b ility can be determined by a number o f d if fe r e n t m easures. In t h i s resea rch primary in t e r e s t i s upon in tragen e r a tio n a l o ccu p ation al m o b ility , or ca reer m o b ility . In tra g en era tio n a l m o b ility fo r our purposes i s d efin ed a s occu p ation al movement o f the same person over tim e. SES index m easures are a v a ila b le fo r an eleven year tim e p eriod fo r a l l respondents ex cep t fo r a very few who were not old enough to have had "exposure" to occu p ation s fo r t h is le n g th of tim e . The observed SES index ch an ges, or la c k o f change, in t h is e le v e n year period e f f e c t i v e l y m easures ca reer m o b ility fo r th a t period o f tim e. ^ O S o c ia l M o b ility " refers to the p ro cess by which in d iv id u a ls move from one p o s it io n t o another in s o c ie ty - p o s itio n s which by g e n e r a locrEent have been s p e c if ic h ie r a r c h ia l v a lu e s." L ip set and B en d ix.o p . c i t . , pp .1 - 2 . ^For a d is c u s s io n o f some p o s s ib le consequences of s o c ia l m o b ility , see Warren B reed, "O ccupational M o b ility and S u icid e Among W hite M ales," American S o c io lo g ic a l R eview , 28 (A p r il, 19^ 3), pp. 179“1^8; N oel P. G is t and S y lv ia F . F ava, Urban S o c ie ty (New York: Thomas Y . Crowell C o ., 19^4» 5th e d .) , p . 313; or Robert K. Merton and Robert A. N isb e t, e d s ., Contem porary S o c ia l Problems (New York: H arcourt, Brace & World, 1 9 6 1 ) ,pp .1 5 -1 6 . ^ T h is a v oid s th e problem o f how "open" or "closed" a s o c ie t y hap pens to b e . In oth er words we are not assuming th a t a person must move f a s t e r than h is peers as a r e s u lt o f str u c tu r a l change to be upwardly m o b ile. In oth er words, we a r e d e fin in g m o b ility on an a b so lu te b a s is rath er than a r e la t iv e b a s is . For a d is c u s sio n o f th e p o s s ib le e f f e c t s o f a b so lu te v ersu s r e la t iv e a n a ly s is o f m o b ility , s e e Eugene L itw ak, "O ccupational M o b ility and Extended Fam ily C ohesion," American S o c io lo g ic a l R eview , 25 (February, 19^ 0), p . 1$. I t was poin ted out in Chapter I th a t th ere a r e a t l e a s t two d is t in c t o ccu p ation al ca reer measurements th a t may be made. These measure ments may be made a t d is c r e t e p o in ts in tim e, or th ey may be gathered fo r a co n tin u a l lo n g itu d in a l a n a ly s is . A cco rd in g ly , occu p ation al career m o b ility in the rep ort th a t fo llo w s r e fe r s to movement a t d is c r e te p oin ts in tim e whereas occu p ation al career p a tte rn s w ill r e fe r t o th e c o n tin u a l, lo n g itu d in a l measurement o f occu p ation c l a s s i f i c a t i o n . S e c tio n B o f F igure i in the f i r s t chapter illu s t r a t e d occu p a tio n a l ca reer m o b ility s u b - c la s s if ic a t io n s th a t are p o s s ib le in a d is c r e te tim e period a n a ly s is . These c l a s s i f i c a t i o n s were s ta tio n a r y , or th ose who remained in th e same SES ca teg o ry o f lo w , low -m id d le, h igh -m id d le, or high a t two or more p o in ts in tim e. The upwardly m obile a re d efin ed as th ose head o f households who crossed over one of th e SES ste p s o f low , low -m id dle, h igh -m id d le, or h ig h . T his c ro ssin g over the boundary may be down or up, and, depending upon the d ir e c t io n , r e s u lt s in downward or upward occu p ation al m o b ility . In an occu p ation al career p a ttern a n a ly s is , the above a ls o h o ld s tru e; in a d d itio n , th e p o s s ib ilit y e x i s t s o f c r o ssin g th e SES boundaries both in an upward and downward d ir e c t io n . I f t h i s r e s u lt o ccu rs, the person i s c l a s s i f i e d as having a flu c tu a tin g career p a tte rn . In tr a g e n e r a tio n a l, or career m o b ility , as measured a t d is c r e te p o in ts in tim e, then r e s u lt s in the fo llo w in g s u b c la s s ific a tio n : ( l ) sta tio n a r y , (2 ) upwardly m o b ile, and (3 ) downwardly m o b ile. In tra g en era tio n a l occu p a tio n a l m o b ility as measured c o n tin u a lly over a g iv e n period o f tim e, or career p a tte r n s, r e s u lt s in th e fo llo w in g s u b c la s s if ic a t io n s : ( l ) stationr- a r y , ( 2 ) upwardly m o b ile, ( 3) downwardly m ob ile, and (4 ) f lu c t u a tin g . i a In tra g en era tio n a l occu p ation al m o b ility measurements were made by d is c r e te tim e p e r io d s, i . e . , A p ril 1 , 1950 and Ju n e, 1961, and by occu p a tio n a l ca reer p a ttern s which measured the o ccu p a tio n a l SES fo r th e e n tir e elev en year period.'*"^ In terg en era tio n a l m o b ility i s d efin ed as measured fa th er and son change, or la c k o f change. In terg en era tio n a l m o b ility can be determ ined fo r a number o f c h a r a c t e r is t ic s . In t h is r e s p e c t, however, our concern i s w ith in ter g e n e ra tio n a l occu pation al m o b ility a s determ ined by changes in SES. A com parison i s made between th e fa t h e r 's and h is so n 's occu p a tio n a l SES. W e o p e r a tio n a lly d e fin e th e f a t h e r 's occu p ation al SES as h is ma.jor occu p ation and compare t h is w ith h is so n 1 s occu pational SES a t variou s p o in ts in tim e, and w ith th e so n 's occu p a tio n a l career pattern. D iff e r e n tia tio n o f amount and d ista n c e o f s o c ia l m o b ility can be 12 made. W e are p rim arily concerned w ith amount o f m o b ility which i s de fin ed as the p rop ortion o f in d iv id u a ls upwardly and downwardly m o b ile , or who have a flu c tu a tin g p a tte rn . The d ista n c e a s p e c t o f so c ia l mobi l i t y c o n s is t s o f the number o f "steps" upward or downward for a g iv e n in d iv id u a l or group and depends more upon an a r b itr a r y taxonomy t o d e te r - 13 mine the number o f ste p s tak en . W e are d ea lin g w ith d ista n ce o n ly briefly in t h is resea rch . Our main emphasis i s on the amount o f so c ia l m o b ility . ^ I t has been poin ted out by Schnore th a t a "career" d e f in it io n o f m o b ility conforms to the demographic model; i t y ie ld s data on f e r t i l i t y , m ig ra tio n and m o r ta lity . See Leo F . Schnore, " S o cia l M o b ility in Demo graphic P e r sp ec tiv e ," American S o c io lo g ic a l R eview , 26 (June 1 9 6 l)p .2 jl7 . ^^W estoff, B r e s s le r , and S a g i, oj>. c i t . l 3Ib id . Whenever a SES d iv is io n o f low , low -m iddle, h igh -m id d le, or high i s c ro ssed , occu p ation al m o b ility has occu rred. The anount o f m o b ility i s then determ ined by th e number and percentage o f persons who are n ot sta b le , th a t i s , w ith fa th e r and son b ein g in a d if f e r e n t SEST D ista n c e , as we d e fin e i t , is lim ite d , a t th e maximum, to th ree step s fo r the h ig h e st and lo w e st c a te g o r ie s , and to two step s for th e two m iddle c a te - li+ g o r ie s . As a r e s u lt o f the above proced ures, th ere are th ree in te r g en era tio n a l occu p ation al m o b ility c a te g o r ie s , th e y are a s fo llo w s : ( l ) S ta tio n a r y , ( 2) Upwardly M obile, and (3) Downwardly M obile. O ccupational M o b ility E x p ecta tio n s fo r th e fu tu r e were determ ined by the fo llo w in g q u estion : "What do you th in k th e head of th e h ou seh old 's chances are fo r g e t t in g ahead in ( h is ) (h er) lin e o f work?" As a r e s u lt o f th e respon se d is t r ib u t io n , persons who in d ica ted th a t th e ir chances o f g e ttin g ahead were "very good" or "good" were c l a s s i f ie d as having good occu p a tio n a l m o b ility e x p e cta tio n s; resp on ses of "fair" and "not to o good" were ca teg o rized as f a i r ; and "uncertain" and "don't know" resp on ses were c la s s if i e d as u n c e r ta in . H orizon tal M o b ility H orizon tal m o b ility i s d efin ed as movement in geographic sp a ce, and in our d e f in it io n we are in clu d in g both lo c a l and lo n g -d ista n c e moves (m ig r a tio n ). ■^Stuckert used 10 or more p o in ts on the H O R G s c a le a s a measurement o f m o b ility . He con sid ered i t unnecessary to sep arate th e downwardly ftam the upwardly m o b ile. We, how ever, have alw ays con sid ered them a s two d is t in c t movements. See Robert P . S tu c k e rt, "Occupational M o b ility and Fam ily R e la tio n sh ip s," S o c ia l F o r c e s, l^ L (March, 1963) , pp . 301— 307* Other stu d ie s have u t i l i z e d th e manual and non-manual dichotom y. There has been c r it ic is m o f t h is procedure; see Schnore, op. c i t . , pp. ip.5 and ij.20. H orizon tal m o b ility was determ ined in two d if f e r e n t fa s h io n s . F i r s t , whether th e fam ily a c tu a lly moved during th e y ea r fo llo w in g the i n i t i a l in terv iew was determ ined by a follow u p in ter v ie w whenever pos s i b l e , and, in other c o n tin g e n c ie s, by tra cin g procedures which u t iliz e d the p o s ta l and telep h on e system s. On th e b a s is o f th ese follow u p pro ced u res, male heads of households were c l a s s i f i e d as observed (p rosp ec t iv e ) movers or n o m o v ers. ^ I f th e person had remained in h is resid en ce o f th e p revious y e a r, he was c la s s if i e d a s a no m o v e r . On th e other hand, i f th e person liv e d in any oth er r e sid e n c e , he was c la s s if i e d as a m over. A second d eterm in ation o f h o r iz o n ta l m o b ility dim ensions was made on the b a s is o f in terv iew schedule item s which determ ined i f r e s pondents had moved during th e year p rio r to the in terv iew and i f they had a ch o ice o f moving or sta y in g in t h e ir cu rren t p la ce o f r esid e n c e and i f p lan s had been made fo r a move w ith in th e fo llo w in g y e a r . Choice o f moving or sta y in g was determ ined by th e fo llo w in g q u estion : " If you had your c h o ic e , would you sta y here or move?" Choice movers answered "move" or " u n certain . 1 1 Choice nonmovers answered "stay" in respon se to th e q u e s tio n . P lans fo r moving or sta y in g were determined by th e fo llo w in g q u estion : "Do you plan to move from t h i s p lace w ith in th e n ex t y ea r? ” Planned one year movers answered " un certain ," "probably move," or " d e fin ite ly move." Planned one y ea r nonmovers responded " d e fin ite ly not move" or "probably not move" to th e q u estio n . ^%or a com prehensive treatm ent o f some d iffe r e n c e s betw een pros p e c tiv e and r e tr o sp e c tiv e r e s id e n t ia l m o b ility , see M aurice D.Van Arsdol, J r . and Georges Sabagh, " R etrosp ective and P ro sp ectiv e M etrop olitan Re s id e n t ia l M o b ility ," paper presen ted to the Annual M eetings o f th e Paci f i c S o c io lo g ic a l A ss o c ia tio n , S a lt Lake C ity , U tah, A p r il, 1965* Uk In a d d itio n , an a n a ly s is of r e tr o s p e c tiv e r e sid e n ta l m o b ility was undertaken which d iv id ed th e ixmovers during th e year preceding th e o r ig in a l in terv iew in to lo c a l and lo n g -d ista n c e com p on en ts.^ The re tr o s p e c tiv e movers were dichotom ized accord in g to whether th e ir move was w ith in the Los A ngeles Standard M etrop olitan S t a t i s t i c a l A rea, in which c a se th ey were la b e lle d a s r e tr o s p e c tiv e lo c a l m overs, or i f th ey had moved in to th e Los A ngeles SKSA from anywhere o u tsid e of the area 17 they were c l a s s i f i e d as r e tr o s p e c tiv e lo n g -d ista n c e m overs. Summary The major co n cep ts u t i l i z e d in t h is rep o rt are d efin ed in t h i s s e c tio n and th e em p irical in d ic a to r s o f each were d e lin e a te d . The de fin ed con cep ts were male head o f h ou seh old , s o c ia l s t a t u s , s o c ia l mobi l i t y and i t s components o f in tr a and in terg en era tio n a l m o b ility , occu p a tio n a l career p a tte r n s , occu p ation al m o b ility e x p e c ta tio n s , and h o r i zon tal m o b ility which was d iv id ed in to choice*, p la n s, observed, and r e tr o s p e c tiv e r e s id e n t ia l m o b ility . In a d d itio n , r e tr o s p e c tiv e moves were dichotom ized in to lo c a l and lo n g -d ista n c e components. In t h i s c o n n e c tio n , L ip se t has noted th a t new m igrants from th e l e s s populated areas who move in to th e c it y take manual jobs which a llo w th o se alread y th er e t o become upwardly m o b ile, and r e s u lt s in m ig ra tio n w ith in the c i t y . See Seymour M. L ip s e t , " S ocial M o b ility and Urbaniza tio n ," Rural S o c io lo g y , 20 (September-December, 1955) , P» 225. ^ T h e d is t in c t io n between c i t y and rin g may not be p a r tic u la r ly meanin g f u l fo r r e s id e n t ia l o rg a n iza tio n o f th e m etro p o lis and may n ot be m eaningful u n its o f measurement fo r lo c a l and lo n g -d ista n c e m oves. And, o f co u r se , we m ight add, fo r th e d eterm in ation o f who i s a m igrant and who i s a mover I See Karl E . Taeuber and Alma F . Taeuber, "White M igra t io n end Socio-Econom ic D iffe r e n c e s Between C it ie s and Suburbs," Ameri can S o c io lo g ic a l R eview , 29 (O ctob er, 196^ ) , p . 729• i4S III. Hypotheses In tro d u ctio n The h y p oth eses te s te d in t h i s rep o rt a r e in d ic a te d h&Laaw- sH&sre p reviou s resea rch lit e r a t u r e i s a v a ila b le , th e f in d in g s a re <flesnrfi&»4 as th ey are r e la te d t o th e h y p o th eses. I n many in sta n c e s ms garsaniaas resea rch h a s been lo c a te d which te s te d our h y p o th e ses, a lth ou gh im sen s c a se s s p e c u la tiv e d is c u s s io n s a r e a v a ila b le . When a p p lica M « B ttSsaa sp e c u la tio n s are d escrib ed in r e la t io n to the d e lin e a te d hyjxDtSfaasaaa- At tim es th e r e are d is c r e p a n c ie s in rep orted fin d in g s ; onr hypntakffiaes in th a t c a se are based upon p r e v io u sly rep orted r ese a rc h and Ifcmwaiadge gleaned from s im ila r d ata gath ered in two p r e te s ts conducted rtrnorr tn l8 t h is r e se a r c h . For th e h yp oth eses which p r e v io u sly hav© nsft ihasax te s te d and fo r which no s p e c u la tiv e lit e r a t u r e has been finnifLB lo g ic a l c o n siste n c y w ith oth er t e s t e d h yp oth eses serve as a b a s is tczr Saunnu&s- tin g th e h y p o th eses. For each major s e c t io n o f th e r e p o r t, th e te s te d lypotllbEsaE® sure l i s t e d b elo w , and in sane in s ta n c e s , c o r o lla r y h yp oth eses sir® tm ttc a te d . No e f f o r t has b een made t o co v er a l l c o n ceiv a b le assum ptions tftaatt ntight be t e s t e d by th ese d a ta ; ra th er fo cu s has been to determ ine U Sa* gg$a— tio n sh ip o f ca reer and in te r g e n e r a tio n a l m o b ility to rssidaentiBBlL m o b ility . In moving toward th a t g o a l, th e s tr a te g y has been fihrstt ito digHt- n eate h y p o th eses which t e s t some o f th e in te r n a l relatioTTHfaiipffs ca re e r and in te r g e n e r a tio n a l o ccu p a tio n a l m o b ility . S p e c ia l atimaitnnm 6a $ heen ■''^For a rep o rt o f th e f i r s t p r e t e s t , see Edgar W - BntlLsEr,, CEsorges Sabagh, and M aurice D. Van A r sd o l, J r . , ’'Demographic and R -or.T ifd l ffiaycho— l o g ic a l F a cto rs in R e sid e n tia l M o b ility ," S o c io lo g y and Bnriaffl jEggaarcfc, i|8 (Jan u ary, 1961;), pp. 139-151+* d ir e c te d toward e s t a b lis h in g ca reer p a tte r n s , and to in t e r r e la t e them to th e r e s id e n t ia l m o b ility c r it e r io n m easures of r e t r o s p e c t iv e and p r o sp e ctiv e moves and t o ex p ressed c h o ic e and p la n s. In a d d itio n , an a n a ly s is i s c a rr ie d out to determ ine t o what e x te n t th e se r e s id e n t ia l m o b ility c r it e r io n m easures are in te r r e la te d or d isp a r a te in d ic e s . F in a lly , h yp oth eses concerning th e in te r r e la tio n s h ip o f v e r t i c a l and h o r iz o n ta l m o b ility are d e lin e a te d . C areer M o b ility _ q 20 R o g o ff, ' as w e ll as o th e r s , have rep orted th a t th ere appears to be more upward than downward m o b ility in W estern in d u s tr ia liz e d n a tio n s. Much o f the upward m o b ility has been d escrib ed as b ein g a r e s u lt o f pi s tr u c tu r a l n eed s. In t h is r e se a r c h , the q u estio n o f whether the up ward or downward m o b ility i s a r e s u lt o f str u c tu r a l n e c e s s it y or some o th er reason has not been exam ined. Our a tt e n tio n i s on th e e x te n t o f s o c ia l m o b ility and i t s r e la tio n s h ip t o r e s id e n t ia l m oves. The h yp oth eses o u tlin e d in t h is s e c tio n are concerned w ith male heads o f households and th e ir o ccu p a tio n a l SES a t v a r io u s tim es in th e ir l i f e c y c le . For th e la r g e s t share o f th e sam ple, an e le v e n y ea r time p eriod is covered . For a l l head o f hou sehold s who en tered th e labor fo r c e a ft e r A p ril 1 , 1950. th e ir e n t ir e o ccu p a tio n a l c a re e r is included alth ou gh t h is doeB n o t cover as lo n g a p erio d a s fo r th e " o ld er1 1 members o f th e lab or fo r c e . ■^Rogoff, N a ta lie , Recent Trends in O ccupational M o b ility (G lencoe: The F ree P r e s s , 1953)* ^ ^ jip set and Bendix, o£. c i t . R esearchers who have stu d ied th e occu p ation al c l a s s i f i c a t i o n of in d iv id u a ls over p erio d s of tim e c o n s is te n tly rep o rt th a t some changes occur, b u t the most li k e l y happenstance i s th a t o f no change. In oth er words, an in d iv id u a l i s more l i k e l y to remain in the same occu p ation al 22 c la s s over time than to change to another one. R o g o ff, in her p ion eer study, reported th at no more than h a lf o f the persons move out o f th e occu p ation al c la s s in which th ey f i r s t h eld a p o s itio n . W e are unable to t e s t th e h y p o th e sis from the f i r s t h eld p o s it io n , b u t we can d e te r mine th e e x te n t o f movement fo r a ten y ea r period by measurements tak en fo r 1950 and 19& 1 * Th® derived h y p o th esis i s a s fo llo w s: 1 . H y p o th esis: No more than h a lf o f th e persons in a iy g iv en occu p ation al c la s s w i l l have h eld an occu pation o u tsid e th a t c la s s . l a . C o ro lla ry H y p o th esis: The in c lu sio n o f fan n ers and th e ir sons w ill not a lt e r the b a sic h y p o th e sis. A number o f s tu d ie s have rep orted th a t m o b ility , i f i t doea o ccu r, 23 i s m ost l ik e ly to occur betw een a d ja cen t c a te g o r ie s . This i s an em p ir ic a l v e r if ic a t io n of the o f t repeated remark th a t i t ta k es se v e r a l g en era tio n s to clim b to the to p o f th e occu pation al h ie r a rc h y . R ogoff 2li rep o rts data ten d in g to su b sta n tia te t h is p o in t o f v iew . A ccord in gly, the hyp oth eses th a t we w ill t e s t are as fo llo w s: 2 . H y p o th esis: I f career occu p ation al m o b ility occurs i t i s most l i k e l y to be a cro ss ad jacen t occu p ation al c la s s e s . 22Ib id . . p . 21. ^ Ib id . 2 a . C orollary H y p o th esis; The in c lu sio n o f farm ers and th e ir sons w ill n o t a lt e r th e b a sic h y p o th e sis. 3* H y p o th esis: There w i l l be more upward than downward m o b ility . 3a. C orollary H y p o th esis: The in c lu sio n o f farm ers and th e ir sons w i l l not a lt e r th e b a sic h y p o th e sis. O ccupational Career P a ttern s H ypotheses d escrib ed below in d ic a te th e expected r e s u lt s in th e study o f occu p ation al ca reer p a tte r n s. O ccupational ca reer p a ttern s are based upon knowledge o f a w orker's occu p ation al career h is to r y which in the v a st m a jo rity o f c a s e s , co v ers an e lev e n year period o f tim e from A p ril 1 , 1950 to June, 19&1. The h y p o th esis th a t th ere w i l l be more upward than downward m o b ility as measured by occu p a tio n a l career p a tte rn s over an elev en year period i s a lo g ic a l d e r iv a tio n o f p revious hyp otheses concerning change as measured a t d is c r e te tim e p e r io d s. As p oin ted out p r e v io u sly , th e occu p a tio n a l career p a ttern is a continuous measurement w ith a p a tte rn e f f e c t being th e s u b je c t o f c l a s s i f i c a t i o n ra th er than d is c r e t e tim e mea surem ents. O ccupational change, th en , in t h is r e sp e c t i s a co n tin u al lo n g itu d in a l measurement which could co n ceiv a b ly take in to c o n sid e ra tio n more occu pation al ca reer changes. Our form ulated h y p o th esis i s in d ica ted below: I 4. H y p o th esis: There w ill be more upward than downward m o b ility as measured by o ccu p a tio n a l ca reer p a tte r n s. ija. C orollary H y p o th esis: The in c lu s io n o f farm ers and th e ir sons w i l l not a lt e r the b a sic h y p o th e sis, lib. C orollary H y p o th esis: The in c lu s io n o f recen t en tra n ts in to th e lab or fo r c e w i l l not a lt e r th e b a sic h y p o th e sis. b9 In te r g e n e r a tio n a l M o b ility P r e v io u sly o u tlin e d hypotheses concerned career m o b ility a s measured a t d is c r e te tim e p eriod s and fo r a co n tin u a l measurement over th e e n tir e tim e p e r io d . In t h is s e c tio n , th e concern i s w ith fa th e r and son com p a riso n s or in te r g e n e r a tio n a l m o b ility . In terg en era tio n a l m o b ility hy p o th eses a re form ulated which r e la te fa th e r -so n changes to b oth o f the above measurements o f career m o b ility . The h yp oth eses are couched in term s o f th e fa t h e r ’ s major occu p ation and the so n 's occu p ation al ca reer a s measured d is c r e t e ly in 1950 and 1961 and fo r the c o n tin u a l measure ment o f h is occu p ation al career p a tte r n from A p ril 1 , 1950 to June, 1961. 25 R ogoff su ggested th a t most sons w i l l be in occu pation s oth er than th e ir f a t h e r 's . This h y p o th esis has been paraphrased and occu pation al c la s s has been su b stitu te d fo r s p e c if ic occu p ation . T his a lt e r a t io n appears to be a m eaningful one in th a t many occu pation al c a te g o r ie s in e x iste n c e a few sh o rt y ea rs ago are no lon ger in e x is te n c e . M oreover, th ere i s a la r g e number of new occu p ation al c a te g o r ie s which may be a t the seme approxim ate le v e l as the fa t h e r 's bu t which are not s t r i c t l y comparable w ith some now e x t in c t occu p ation al c l a s s i f i c a t i o n s . In a d d itio n , th e c la s s l e v e l approach i s more m eaningful in th a t a son may not be in the same occu p ation as h is fa th e r even i f i t co n tin u es to be in e x is t e n c e , but he may be in an occu p ation a t the same approxim ate le v e l in SES and p r e s t ig e . In sofar as s o c ia l m o b ility i s concerned th er e has not been movement up or down th e s c a le ; th e occu - ^ R o g o f f , 0£ . c i t . , p . 21. p a tio n i t s e l f is the on ly change - not the p r e s tig e or SES. A ccordingly, we w i l l t e s t th e fo llo w in g h y p o th esis: 5 . H y p o th esis: A m ajority o f sons w ill be in occu p ation al c la s s e s oth er than th e ir f a t h e r s '. 5 a . C orollary H y p oth esis: The in c lu sio n o f farm ers and th e ir sons w ill not a lt e r th e b a sic h y p o th e sis. The h y p o th esis o u tlin e d below i s a paraphrase of a R ogoff hypo- 26 t h e s i s . In t h is p a r tic u la r c a s e , th e argument fo llo w s th e sane lin e of thought th a t occu pation al cla ss-a p p e a rs t o be a more m eaningful u n it o f a n a ly s is than th e a n a ly s is o f s p e c if ic occu p a tio n s. 6 . H y p o th esis: Sons are more li k e l y to be in th e ir fa th e r s ' occu p ation al c l a s s than any o th er. 6 a . C orollary H y p oth esis: The in c lu s io n of farm ers and t h e ir son s w ill n o t a lt e r th e b a sic h y p o th e sis. A number o f s tu d ie s have rep orted th a t m o b ility , i f i t does o ccu r, i s most l i k e l y to occur between a d ja cen t c a te g o r ie s . T his is an in d ica t io n th a t t h i s o fte n rep eated remark n ot only a p p lie s t o career m o b ility bu t i t a ls o ta k e s se v e r a l g en era tio n s to clim b to th e to p o f th e occu p a tio n a l h ierarch y i f o n e 's fa th e r was a t th e bottom . R o g o ff's d ata 27 su b sta n tia te s t h is p o in t o f view . 7 . H y p o th esis: I f in ter g e n e ra tio n a l occu p ation al m o b ility o c cu rs, i t i s most l i k e l y to occur between adjacent occu p ation al c la s s e s . 7 a . C orollary H y p oth esis: The in c lu sio n of fan n ers and th e ir sons w ill n ot a lt e r th e b a sic h y p o th e sis. One o f the assum ptions o f American s o c ie ty i s th a t th ere i s ample opp ortunity to r i s e to a high er " p r e stig e ” occu pation th a n th e one pfl occupied by o n e's fa t h e r . There i s su b sta n tia l resea rch evid ence 29 which corrob orates t h i s assum ption. T his h yp o th esis was fu rth er te s te d by comparing th e sons' occupation s w ith th a t o f th e ir f a t h e r s . The fo llo w in g h y p o th e sis, as w e ll as th e o th ers in th is s e c t io n , apply to th e d is c r e t e tim e measurements in 1950 and 1961 and fo r th e occupa tio n a l career p a ttern s o f the s o n s. 8 . H ypothesis 1 There w ill b e more upward than downward m o b ility in comparing th e son s' occu pation s w ith th a t o f the fa th e r s' . 8a. C orollary H ypothesis: The in c lu sio n o f farm ers and th e ir sons w ill not a lte r the b a sic h y p o th e sis. O ccupational M o b ility E xp ectation s T ested h yp otheses concerning occu p ation al m o b ility e x p e c ta tio n s and socioeconom ic s t a t u s , occu pational career p a tte r n s, and in t e r - g en era tio n a l occu p ation al m o b ility are as fo llo w s: W. L loyd Warner, American L ife : Dream and R e a lity (C hicago: U n iv e r sity of Chicago P r e ss , 1 9 5 3 ). 29 There i s ample evidence th a t t h is is not an unfounded assum ption. For exam ple, see C ro ck ett, op. c i t .; L ip se t and B endix, op. c i t . ; and R o g o ff, p p . c i t . 52 9* H y p o th esis: No d if f e r e n t ia t io n T h y SES w ill be found in r e sp e c t to fu tu re occu p ation al m o b ility ex p ecta tio n s* 1 0 . H y p oth esis: There w i l l be h ig h er e x p e c ta tio n s o f fu tu re occu p ation al m o b ility by person s who have experienced upwardly m obile occu p ation al career p a tte r n s. 1 1 . H y p o th esis: There w ill be h igh er e x p e cta tio n s o f fu tu re occu p ation al m o b ility by a i l persons who have experienced in te r g e n e r a tio n a l o ccu p a tio n a l m o b ility . R e sid e n tia l M o b ility The main fo cu s o f most p reviou s r e s id e n t ia l m o b ility s tu d ie s has 30 been on r e tr o s p e c tiv e m oves. However, sev era l s tu d ie s have been con- 31 ducted which used moving in te n tio n s a s a measure o f expected m o b ility . 32 33 Both R o ssi and L e s lie and R ichardson reported th a t moving in te n tio n s are good in d ic a to r s o f a ctu a l b eh a v io r. Only R o ssi has p rev io u sly te s te d the assum ption th a t exp ected m o b ility i s h ig h ly r e la te d to ac t u a lly carryin g out o f ex p e cta tio n s; he reported th a t "a fa m ily 's r e - ^^?or a d is c u s sio n and b ib lio g r a p h y , see Henry S. Shryock, J r . , P o p u la tio n M o b ility W ithin th e U nited S ta te s (C hicago: Community and Fam ily Study C enter, I 96I1 j • A ls o , s e e Van A rsdol and Sabagh, oj>. c i t . 31 B u tle r , Sabagh, Van A rsd o l, op. c i t .; Gerald R. L e s lie and Arthur H. R ichardson, " L ife-C y cle, C areer, and the D e c isio n to Move," American S o c io lo g ic a l R eview , 26 (December, 1961) , pp. 89^ 4 - 9 0 2 ; and P e te r R o ssi, Why F a m ilies Move (G len coe, I l l i n o i s : The Free P r e s s , 1955)* 32Ib id . 1 6 s l i e and R ichardson, op. c i t . ported ia S e m fciss about moving can be tak en a s a good in d ic a to r o f how 3I1 th a t fa m ily s r ill a c tu a lly b eh a v e.1 liQaHe uisiat m ig ra tio n s t o d ie s cen tered t h e ir a t t e n t io n on econom ic f a c t o r s , s t o S ie s o f in tra g e t r o jgolitan: r e s id e n t ia l m o b ility fo cu sed more upon seng cei^iborhood s a t i s f a c t i o n , l i f e and fa m ily l i f e c y c le ch an ges, and o n ly a llu d ed to v e r t ic a l m o b ility determ inants* As a conseguanc® off th e s e s t u d ie s , a mmher o f v a r ia b le s w ere c a n d id a tes f o r c e n tr a l ceEaatMsratian- ih e s e v a r ia b le s were r e n tin g v e r su s owning, a g e , s ta g s o f f ia t ily l i f e — c y c le , hou sehold co m p o sitio n , number o f per so n s in f e aoesafadld, E sther o f p r io r m oves, area o f r e s id e n c e , r e l i g io n s aff-aH-Ssrira-, ed u ca tio n s! a t ia in n e n t, and incom e. However, ra th er than a t t a mpi t s c o n tr o l f o r each o f th e se f a c t o r s , an o p p o site ta ck of e x p lo r in g most, o f th e p o s s ib le in flu e n c e s o f in t e r and in tr a g e n e r a tio n a l occupBta-caaaEL m h b ility upon r e s id e n t ia l moves i s un dertaken. The main concern h e r e i s w ith d e lin e a tin g adequate c r it e r io n m easures of r e s i d e n t ia l ams&Hi.igr t€h can b e u t i l i s e d i n t h is and subsequent resea rch 35 concernin g r s T B ippul-r-re o r f a c i l i t a t i n g r e s id e n t ia l m oves. There f o r e , i n sp a te o f th e s e p r e v io u sly rep orted r e la tio n s h ip s and th e ir in te r tim i^ e h L e u s e , fo u r d if f e r e n t c r it e r io n m easures o f r e s id e n t ia l m o b ility — e fe sic e , p la n s , p r o sp e c tiv e (ob served ) and r e tr o s p e c tiv e moves — sms afciXizad.. •^Bcgart, o p . c i t . , p . 1UJ- Saha^L, Tan A r sd o l, op . c i t .; and G eorges Sabagh, M aurice D- Tan A raSE l, J r . , and Edgar V . B u tle r , The R e s tle s s M e tr o p o lis , fo r th coming mmngraph. A lso s e e Tan A rsdol and Sabagh, o p . c i t . 5k The I n te r r e la tio n sh ip o f SES, V e r tic a l M o b ility , O ccupational M o b ility E x p ecta tio n s, and R e sid e n tia l M o b ility The r e la tio n s h ip o f SES and v e r t ic a l m o b ility t o geographic moves 36 has been su ggested by a number o f w r it e r s . Some o f th ese assum ptions, however, have not been su b sta n tia ted by subsequent sy stem a tic s t u d ie s . For exam ple, th e h y p o th esis th a t th e upper SES groups are more l i k e l y than th e low er SES groups to p a r tic ip a te in r e s id e n t ia l m o b ility has not been su b sta n tia te d by p rev io u sly reported r ese a rc h . There i s some in d ic a tio n th a t the lo w est SES group may be the m ost m obile group in the p o p u la tio n . However, T arver,^7 through th e a n a ly sis o f cen su s d a ta , ha3 shown th a t p r o fe s s io n a l, te c h n ic a l and kindred workers are th e m ost_aob ile group in th e p o p u la tio n . He fu rth er reported th a t the "sedentary" groups were ap p o in tiv e and e le c t iv e o f f i c i a l s , craftsm en and o p e r a tiv e s. N eith er h is d ata or h y p o th esis are com p letely compati b le w ith th e s e , in th a t some of h is most m obile and m ost sed en tary people are inclu ded in th e h ig h e s t SES group category in t h is a n a ly s is . N e v e r th e le ss, th e h y p o th esis th a t i s to be te s te d i s a s fo llo w s : 36 For an exam ple, see S tu c k e rt, Robert P ., op. c i t . , p. 302. On the oth er hand, a t l e a s t one resea rch er has o ffe r e d an a lt e r n a tiv e h y p o th esis th a t most moves are to the suburbs and t h is movement i s m ainly m iddle c la s s m o b ility and n o t upward m o b ility . See Samuel W . B liz z a r d , “R esearch on the Rural-Urban F rin ge: A Case Study," S o cio lo g y and S o c ia l R esearch, 38 (January-February, 195^ ), pp. 179” 1^ * James D. T arver, "Occupational M igration D if f e r e n t ia ls ," S o c ia l F o r c es, i|3 (December, 196I 4 .) , p . 23l|. 55 1 2 . H y p o th esis: Upper SES groups a r e more l i k e l y than th e low er to c h o o se , p la n , a c tu a lly m ove, and have p a r ti c ip a te d in r e t r o s p e c t iv e m o b ility . 1 2 a . C o ro lla ry H y p o th esis: The d if fe r e n c e s noted above w ill hold tru e fo r measurements a t vary in g p o in ts in tim e . The c l a s s i c a l p o s itio n concernin g th e e f f e c t o f occu p ation al advancement on r e s id e n t ia l m o b ility i s perhaps dem onstrated by W hyte's statem en t to th e e f f e c t th a t r e s id e n t ia l m o b ility " in ev ita b ly * accom panies occupa- 38 39 tio n a l advancem ent. In a d d itio n , L e s lie and R ichardson ' have pre sented some em p irical ev id en ce which su g g e sts th a t th e " p o ten tia l" f o r upward m o b ility e x p la in s th e la ck o f com plete correspondence betw een expected s o c ia l m o b ility and a c tu a l m o b ility accou nts fo r th e d is c r e pancy in th o se who a n tic ip a te d th a t th ey would move and did n o t, and th o se who d id not a n t ic ip a t e moving b u t d id . W e have r e la te d fu tu re o ccu p a tio n a l m o b ility e x p e c ta tio n s t o r e s id e n t ia l m o b ility , and have made th e fo llo w in g assum ptions concerning v e r t ic a l m o b ility and g e o - LO graphic m oves. ■ ^ Jilliam H. Whyte, The O rgan ization Man (Garden C ity : Doubleday Anchor B ooks, 1957)* T his h y p o th esis i s I m p lic itly accepted by some a u th o r s, fo r example see th e fo llo w in g : L ip s e t , op. c i t . . p . 225; and W endell B e l l , "Familism and Suburbanization: One T est o f t h e S o c ia l C hoice H ypothesis," Rural S o c io lo g y , 21 (Septem ber-Decem ber, 1 9 5 6 ), p . 277* 39 L e s lie and R ichardson, op. c i t . , p . 89 9 * ^ ° Ib id . 13* H y p o th esis; Those who ex p e rie n c e occu p ation al advancement are more l i k e l y than th o se who are o c c u p a tio n a lly sta b le or downwardly m obile to ex p ress c h o ic e and p la n s fo r r e s i d e n tia l m o b ility and to a c tu a lly p a r tic ip a te in p r o sp e ctiv e and have p a r tic ip a te d i n r e t r o s p e c t iv e r e s id e n t ia l m o b ility , lij.. H y p o th esis: Those who have fa th e r s in the upper SES are more l i k e l y than th o se who have fa th e r s in th e lower SES to c h o o se, p la n , a c t u a lly m ove, and have p a r tic ip a te d in r e tr o s p e c tiv e r e s id e n t ia l m o b ility . T h e h y p o t h e s i s c o n c e r n i n g o c c u p a t i o n a l m o b i l i t y e x p e c t a t i o n s a n d g e o g r a p h i c m o v e s i s a s f o l l o w s : 15* H y p o th esis: P erson s who have "good” o ccu p a tio n a l m o b ility e x p e c ta tio n s are more l i k e l y th an th o se who have other e x p e c ta tio n s to ch o o se, p la n , a c t u a lly carry o u t, and have p a r tic ip a te d in r e tr o s p e c tiv e m o b ility . R e tro sp e c tiv e M o b ility : L ocal and L on g-D istan ce The h y p o th esis has been advanced, though c e r ta in ly not v e r i f i e d , th a t lo n g -d is ta n c e movers a r e more l i k e l y t o be in the upper SES c a te g o r ie s than lo c a l m overs. W hyte, in The O rgan ization Man. and oth er w r it e r s , have a ccep ted t h is a s a s u b sta n tia te d h y p o th e sis.^ " However, th e a v a ila b le d ata in d ic a te th at i t on ly should be co n sid ered a s a t e n t a t iv e ly v e r if ie d h y p o th e sis w hich needs em p irica l s u b s ta n tia tio n . Sane e m p ir ic a l j u s t i f i c a t i o n f o r t h is h y p o th e sis was fu r n ish e d by Taeuber and Taeuber^2 from th e ir a n a ly s is o f U nited S t a te s cen su s d a ta . They rep orted th a t ou t-m ig ra n ts were in the h ig h er SES groups when com pared to n on -m igrants; and, presum ably, non -m igrants in t h i s c a se would in c lu d e lo c a l m overs. They fu r th e r rep orted th a t o u t-m ig ra n ts were in th e h ig h er SES groups when age was c o n t r o lle d . In c o n s id e r a tio n of the p r e v io u s d is c u r s iv e l it e r a t u r e and r e se a r c h co n cern in g lo n g -d is ta n c e m oves, th e fo llo w in g h y p o th e sis was form ulated: l 6 . H y p o th e sis: The upper SES groups are more l i k e l y than the low er to be r e t r o s p e c t iv e lo n g -d is ta n c e m overs. Abu-Luban rep orted th a t fo r the le a d e r s in th e caammnity he s tu d ie d th ere was a h ig h in t e r r e la t io n s h ip betw een th e v a r io u s r a te s o f r e s id e n t ia l m oves, job ch an ges, and s o c ia l m o b ilit y . In a d d itio n , Mi L ip s e t and B en d ix rep orted th a t th e r e i s an ap p aren t r e la t io n s h ip betw een geograp h ic m o b ilit y , o ccu p a tio n a l m o b ilit y , and job changes* U5 On t h e oth er hand, G o ld ste in and M ayer, a s w e ll a s o th e r s , a n a ly zin g c en su s data f o r th e s t a t e o f Rhode I s la n d , concluded th a t l o c a l moves ta k e p la c e ind ep en dent o f changes in job lo c a t io n . ^ T a eu b er and T aeuber, p p . c i t *, p . 7 2 8 . ^A bu-Luban, Daha, " S o cia l O rig in s and O ccu p ational C areer P a tte r n s o f Community L ead ers," S o c io lo g ic a l In q u ir y , 32 (S p r in g , 1 9 6 3 ) , p . 138. ^ L ip s e t and B en d ix, op. c i t . , p . 160. hS G o ld ste in , Sidney and M ayer, K urt, "M igration and th e Journey to Work," S o c ia l F o r c e s . (May, 196!; ), p« l+ 8 l. The h y p o th esis h e r e in te s te d is more lim ite d in sc o p e . Primary concern i s w ith determ inin g th e r e la t io n s h ip o f s o c ia l m o b ility to re s id e n t ia l m o b ility . A cco rd in g ly , th e te s te d ly p o th e sis i s a s fo llo w s: 1 7 . H y p o th esis: Those w ith an upwardly m obile occu pation al career p a tte r n a re more li k e l y than th ose w ith a iy oth er career p a tte r n to be r e tr o s p e c tiv e lo n g -d ista n c e m overs. No resea rch i s a v a ila b le p o stu la tin g th e r e la tio n s h ip o f in t e r - g en era tio n a l m o b ility t o lo c a l or lo n g -d ista n c e m oves. However, the fo llo w in g h y p o th esis was form ulated fo r te s t in g in t h i s resea rch . 1 8 . H yp oth esis: The in te r g e n e r a tio n a lly upwardly m obile are more l i k e l y than th e s ta tio n a r y or downwardly m obile to be r e tr o s p e c tiv e lo n g -d ista n c e m overs. A te s te d assum ption concerning occu p ation al m o b ility ex p ecta tio n s and r e tr o s p e c tiv e lo n g -d ista n c e geographic moves i s a s fo llo w s : 19* H y p o th esis: Those w ith a "good*1 occu pation al m o b ility e x p e c ta tio n are more l i k e l y than th ose w ith any oth er e x p e c ta tio n to be r e tr o s p e c tiv e lo n g -d ista n c e m overs. Summary The hyp otheses te s te d in th is resea rch were d e lin e a te d in. t h is s e c tio n . The b a s is fo r each was in d ica ted and, where a p p lic a b le , d is c u ssio n o f p reviou s resea rch fin d in g s and sp e c u la tiv e lit e r a t u r e was made. The gen eral im p ression o f the hyp otheses su g g est a p o s it iv e r e la tio n sh ip betw een upper SES c l a s s i f i c a t i o n , upward ca reer and /or in te r g en era tio n a l occu p ation al m o b ility , and good o ccu p ation al m o b ility ex p e c ta tio n s fo r th e fu tu r e and th e r e s id e n t ia l m o b ility c r it e r io n measures. Furtherm ore, i t was h yp oth esized upper SES persons and th o se who were upwardly m o b ile,^ * or who have a good fu tu r e a s in d ic a te d i n occupa tio n a l m o b ility e x p e c ta tio n s were more l i k e l y to un dertake lo n g -d ista n c e m oves. The t e s t o f each o f th e se h yp oth eses w i l l be made in th e fo llo w in g ch a p ters o f t h is d is s e r t a t io n . Arguments have been p resen ted fo r and a g a in s t th e u se o f t e s t s o f s ig n ific a n c e in survey r e se a r c h . Perhaps th e m ost s u c c in c t statem en t a g a in st th e in d isc r im in a te u se o f t e s t s o f 1x7 s ig n ific a n c e h a s been p resen ted by L en sk i. 1 He argues th a t w ith m ost ty p es o f sam ples i t i s alm ost im p o ssib le to c a lc u la te th e probable m agnitude o f sample e r r o r . For exam ple, i s a two per cen t d iffe r e n c e a "real" one or sample error? I f th e d if fe r e n c e can n ot be a ttr ib u te d , then t e s t s o f s ig n ific a n c e do not ap p ly. In a d d itio n , he su g g e sts th a t th er e i s a d iffe r e n c e betw een s o c ia l and s t a t i s t i c a l s ig n if ic a n c e , th a t t e s t s o f s ig n ific a n c e are a poor s u b s tit u te f o r r e p lic a t io n , and th a t th e l e v e l d ecid ed upon i s a r b itr a r y . H is a lt e r n a t iv e i s to u se A su ggested h y p o th esis concernin g moves from suburban a rea s i s th a t th e y are more l i k e l y to be lo n g -d is ta n c e moves than l o c a l m oves. See Warren E . K albagh, George C. M yers, and John ft. W alker, "M etrop oli- ta n Area M o b ility : A Comparative A n a ly sis o f Fam ily S p a tia l M o b ility in a C en tral C ity and S e le c te d Suburbs," S o c ia l F o r c e s , 1+ 2 (March, 1 9 « + ), pp. 310-311*. 1 + 7 Gerhard L en sk i, The R e lig io u s F a ctor: A S o c io lo g ic a l Study o f R e lig io n ’ s Impact on P o l i t i c s , E conom ics, and Fam ily L if e (Garden C ity, New York; Doubleday & C o ., I n c ., Anchor B ooks, 19&3) > see e s p e c ia lly Appendix I , "Sampling E rror and S t a t i s t i c a l S ig n if ic a n c e .1 1 6o oth er resea rch r e s u lt s as a b a s is o f e v a lu a tio n and to emphasize th e p attern ed fin d in g s among se v e r a l s tu d ie s . In t h is resea rch i t was decided on th e above bases and a s a r e s u lt o f the complex sample de s ig n which made i t d i f f i c u l t to c a lc u la te th e probable magnitude o f J ft sample error t o fo reg o s t a t i s t i c a l t e s t s o f s ig n ific a n c e . IV. Summary This chap ter fu n ctio n s a s an in tro d u ctio n to th e concep tu al frame work which has guided t h is r e se a r c h . The framework i s perhaps more c o r r e c tly d escrib ed a s being a general fram e o f referen ce or o r ien ta t io n . A d e s c r ip tio n o f th e primary concepts u t iliz e d in t h i s rep ort and em p irical in d ic a to r s o f each w ere d e lin e a te d . The major con cep ts d escrib ed were male head o f h ou seh old , s o c ia l s ta tu s , s o c ia l m o b ility and i t s components o f in tr a and in ter g e n e ra tio n a l m o b ility , occupational career p a tte r n , and th e h o r iz o n ta l dim ensions o f c h o ic e , p la n s, ob served , and r e tr o s p e c tiv e r e s id e n t ia l m o b ility . 1 + 8 For a d d itio n a l arguments fo r and a g a in st th e u se o f t e s t s o f s ig n if ic a n c e , see th e fo llo w in g : Hubert M. B la lo c k , J r . , S o c ia l S t a t i s t i c s (New York: McGraw-Hill Book Company, I n c ., i 960) , o f . 108; David Gold and Hanan C. S e lv in , "Communications,” American S o c io lo g ic a l Review. 23 (February, 1 9 5 8 ), pp. 85-86; R obert M cGinnis, "Randomiza t io n and In feren ce in S o c io lo g ic a l R esea rch ,” American S o c io lo g ic a l R eview . 23 (A ugu st, 1 9 5 8 ), pp. i|0 8 -l|li|; and Hanan C. S e lv in , "A C ri tiq u e o f T e sts o f S ig n ific a n c e in Survey R esearch," American S o c io lo g ic a l Review 22 (O ctober, 1 9 5 7 ), pp* 519-527* T he h y p o t h e s e s f o r t e s t w e r e d e l i n e a t e d a n d t h e b a s e s f o r t h e e x p e c t e d r e l a t i o n s h i p s w e r e i n d i c a t e d . The g e n e r a l i m p r e s s i o n s w e r e t h a t t h e u p p e r SES g r o u p s , t h e u p w a r d ly m o b ile — b o t h c a r e e r an d i n t e r - g e n e r a t i o n a l , a n d t h o s e w i t h a g o o d f u t u r e o c c u p a t i o n a l m o b i l i t y e x p e c t a t i o n s w o u ld m o r e l i k e l y b e m o v e r s , a c c o r d i n g t o t h e c r i t e r i o n m e a s u r e s , t h a n t h e i r c o u n t e r p a r t s . I n a d d i t i o n , t h e e x p e c t a t i o n w a s m ade t h a t t h e u p p e r SES c a t e g o r i e s , and t h e u p w a r d ly m o b i l e , a n d t h o s e w i t h a g o o d o c c u p a t i o n a l m o b i l i t y e x p e c t a t i o n w o u ld h a v e b e e n m ore l i k e l y t o h a v e p a r t i c i p a t e d i n r e t r o s p e c t i v e r e s i d e n t i a l m o b i l i t y t h a n t h e i r o p p o s i t e s . Chapter IV VERTICAL MOBILITY EXPERIENCES I . I n t r o d u c t i o n T h e r e i s a g r e a t d e a l o f s u b s t a n t i v e i n f o r m a t i o n a v a i l a b l e c o n c e r n i n g i n t e r g e n e r a t i o n a l o c c u p a t i o n a l m o b i l i t y e x p e r i e n c e s o f p o p u l a - 1 t i o n s i n t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s a s w e l l a s e l s e w h e r e . C a r e e r m o b i l i t y a l s o 2 h a s b e e n s t u d i e d e x t e n s i v e l y b o t h i n t h e U n it e d S t a t e s and e l s e w h e r e . P r e v i o u s s t u d i e s o f b o t h c a r e e r and i n t e r g e n e r a t i o n a l a s p e c t s o f v e r t i c a l m o b i l i t y h a v e b e e n p la g u e d b y s i m i l a r k i n d s o f p r o b le m s . W h ile s e v e r a l o f t h e s e d i f f i c u l t i e s w e r e a l l u d e d t o i n t h e i n t r o d u c t o r y c h a p t e r , a m o re e x t e n s i v e an d c o m p r e h e n s iv e a n a l y s i s o f so m e a d d i t i o n a l m e t h o d o l o g i c a l p r o b le m s i n v o l v e d i n d e t e r m i n i n g t h e e x t e n t o f c a r e e r a n d i n t e r g e n e r a t i o n a l a r e h e r e d e l i n e a t e d . I n a d d i t i o n , t h i s c h a p t e r Gosta C a rlsso n , S o c ia l M o b ility and C lass S tru ctu re (Lund: C W K G leerup, 1958); Harry J . C ro ck ett, J r . , "The Achievem ent M otive and D if f e r e n t ia l O ccupational M o b ility in th e United S t a t e s ,” American Socio lo g ic a l Review. 27 (A pril 19& 2), pp. 191-204; D. V . G la ss, e d ., S o c ia l M o b ility in B r ita in (London: R outledge & Kegan P a u l, L td . , 1954); N atalie R o g o ff, Recent Trends in O ccupational M o b ility (G lencoe: The Free P r e s s , 1953); and Saburo Yasuda, ”A M ethodological Inqu iry Into S o c ia l M obility,” American S o c io lo g ic a l Review , 29 (February 19^4) » PP* 16-23* ^Baha Abu-Luban, " S ocial O rigins and O ccupational Career P a ttern s o f Community L eaders," S o c io lo g ic a l In q u iry . 32 (S p ring 1963) , pp* 131- l4 0 ; Richard F . C u r tis, "Income and O ccupational M o b ility ," American S o c io lo g ic a l R eview , 25 (O ctober I960) , pp. 727-730; Joseph R. G u sfie ld , "Occupational R o les and Forms o f E n terp rise," American Journal o f S o c io lo g y , 66 (May 1961) , pp. 571-580; Gerald R. L e s lie and Arthur H. Richard so n , " L ife-C y cle, C areer, and the D e c isio n to M ove,” American S o c io lo g i c a l R eview . 26 (December 1961) , pp. 894-902; and Robert P e r u c c i, "The S ig n ific a n c e o f Intra-O ccupational M o b ility : Some M ethodological and T h eo retica l N o te s, Together w ith a Case Study o f E n gin eers," American S o c io lo g ic a l R eview , 26 (December 1961) , pp. 874-883. w i l l d e s c r i b e t h e c a r e e r and i n t e r g e n e r a t i o n a l o c c u p a t i o n a l m o b i l i t y e x p e r i e n c e o f t h e m em b ers w ho m ake u p t h e s a m p le f o r t h e r e s i d e n t i a l m o b i l i t y p a n e l . T h is c h a p t e r f o c u s e s o n t h r e e a s p e c t s o f v e r t i c a l m o b i l i t y . T h e f i r s t a s p e c t c o n s i s t s o f m e t h o d o l o g i c a l c o n s i d e r a t i o n s p r i o r t o s t a t i s t i c a l m e a s u r e m e n t . T he s e c o n d a r e a o f i n t e r e s t i s t h e u s e o f s t a t i s t i c a l m e a s u r e s o f c a r e e r a n d i n t e r g e n e r a t i o n a l v e r t i c a l m o b i l i t y ; t h i s a s p e c t i n v o l v e s a d i s c u s s i o n o f a " n ew ” s t a t i s t i c w h ic h h a s n o t b e e n u t i l i z e d h e r e t o f o r e i n t h e s t u d y o f v e r t i c a l m o b i l i t y , b u t o n e w h ic h a p p e a r s t o b e w e l l s u i t e d f o r t h e k i n d s o f p r o b le m s i n v o l v e d i n t h e m e a s u r e m e n t o f v e r t i c a l m o b i l i t y . T he t h i r d and p r im a r y c o n c e r n o f t h i s c h a p t e r i s t h e o c c u p a t i o n a l v e r t i c a l m o b i l i t y e x p e r i e n c e o f t h e m em b ers w ho m ake u p t h e r e s i d e n t i a l m o b i l i t y s a m p le . I I . M e t h o d o l o g i c a l C o n s i d e r a t i o n s P r i o r t o S t a t i s t i c a l M e a s u r e m e n t P r i o r t o t h e d i s c u s s i o n o f t h e m e a s u r e m e n t o f m o b i l i t y and d e t e r m i n a t i o n o f t h e s t a t i s t i c a l i n d i c e s n e c e s s a r y f o r m e a s u r e m e n t , som e g e n e r a l m e t h o d o l o g i c a l and d e f i n i t i o n a l d e c i s i o n s n e e d t o b e m a d e . F o r e x a m p le , a m a j o r p r o b le m f a c e d b y s t u d e n t s o f o c c u p a t i o n a l m o b i l i t y i s t h e d e c i s i o n r e l a t i n g t o s t r u c t u r a l c h a n g e s b r o u g h t a b o u t b y t h e i n c r e a s i n g u r b a n i z a t i o n o f t h e p o p u l a t i o n . T he U n i t e d S t a t e s e a c h p a s s i n g d e c a d e h a s b e c o m e m o re u r b a n iz e d w i t h a c o n c o m it a n t m o v e m e n t o f f a n n e r ’ s s o n s i n t o u r b a n o c c u p a t i o n s . A d e c i s i o n m u s t b e m ade a s t o w h e t h e r o r n o t t h e s e f a r m e r s a n d t h e i r s o n s s h o u l d b e i n c l u d e d o r e x c l u d e d fr o m a n a l y s i s . I n a d d i t i o n , d e c i s i o n s m u s t b e m ade c o n c e r n i n g a t w h i c h p o i n t i n t h e l i f e c y c l e an d o c c u p a t i o n a l c a r e e r a r e c o m p a r is o n s t o b e m a d e . C a te g o riza tio n p resen ts a problem, as does which c a te g o r ie s o ff e r th e b e s t r e s u lt s fo r s t a t i s t i c a l a n a ly s is . The Farmer Problem An argument fo r e x c lu sio n o f sons whose fa th e r s were farm ers has 3 been presen ted by C ro ck ett. About a th ir d o f h is sample l i s t e d ”f a r - m ers” as fa t h e r s , but on th e b a s is th a t ”in e x tr ic a b ly ” lumped to g eth er in th e c l a s s i f i c a t i o n o f farmer are ow ner-operators o f v a ry in g d egrees o f a fflu e n c e , te n a n t farm ers, farm la b o r e r s, and share cro p p ers, he excluded farm ers from h is sam ple. T his argument i s a le g itim a te one. Y et to d isc u ss o ccu p a tio n a l m o b ility in contemporary U nited S ta te s w ith out co n sid erin g one o f th e major e f f e c t s o f in c r ea sin g u rb a n iza tio n appears to be a m ista k e.^ The r a t io n a liz a t io n , th en , argues th a t th ere is such a la r g e range o f farm ers th a t th e cu rren t c l a s s i f i c a t i o n procedure fo r ”farm ers” i s in ad eq u ate. This argument, o f c o u r se , can be obviated by more adequate m easuring te c h n iq u e s. Furtherm ore, the r a tio n a liz a t io n a ls o could apply to most other o ccu p a tio n s. The range may not be q u ite as g r e a t, but does not the same argument apply to the co rp o ra tio n law yer as op posed to th e sm all-tow n lawyer? W ithin a s it u s th e range o f power, incom e, and p r e s tig e a ls o are su b ject to f lu c t u a tio n . T his flu ctu a tio n , o b v io u sly , i s very d i f f i c u l t to c o n tr o l and i s one o f the lim ita tio n s o f .c l a s s i f i c a t i o n p resen t in m o s t occu p ation al and s t r a t i f i c a t i o n r e - • y C ro ck ett, l o c . c i t . , p . 1 9 6 . ^For a d is c u s s io n o f an ”urban fa rm er,” see Edward H igbee, Farms and Farmers in an Urban A ge, (New York: T w entieth Century Fund, 19&1 ) , see e s p e c ia lly pp. 6 0 -6 1 . s e a r c h . I n a d d i t i o n , P a r s o n ' s c o m m e n ts c o n c e r n i n g c le r g y m e n a l s o a p p e a r t o a p p l y t o t h i s p r o b le m . H e s t a t e s : "T he s t a t u s o f a c le r g y m a n i s r o u g h l y a f u n c t i o n o f t h e p r e s t i g e o f h i s p a r i s h i o n e r s I t m ig h t b e a d d e d t h a t n o t o n l y i s h i s s t a t u s d e r i v e d fr o m h i s p a r i s h i o n e r s b u t a l s o h i s in c o m e and p e r h a p s t h e e x t e n t o f h i s p o w e r i n t h e c o m m u n ity a s w e l l . U n f o r t u n a t e l y , t h e o b j e c t i o n t h a t i s v o i c e d a b o v e c o n c e r n i n g t h e c l a s s i f i c a t i o n o f f a r m e r s i n t o o n e a l l i n c l u s i v e c a t e g o r y a p p l i e s t o o t h e r o c c u p a t i o n s a s w e l l . H o w e v e r , f u r t h e r r e s e a r c h m ay sh o w t h a t t h e o b j e c t i o n t o t h e u s a g e o f o n e i n c l u s i v e c a t e g o r y f o r f a r m e r s i s a l e g i t i m a t e o n e , b u t t h a t t h e e r r o r i n t r o d u c e d f o r t h e e n t i r e p o p u l a t i o n m ay n o t b e v e r y l a r g e . T h i s e r r o r W hen t a k i n g t h e f a r m e r s a s a s u b c l a s s 6 f o r a n a l y s i s , o b v i o u s l y r e m a in s a d e f i n i t e a n d c r i t i c a l p r o b le m . T h e a s s u m p t i o n t h a t f a n n e r s a n d t h e i r s o n s u n d u ly c o n t a m i n a t e th e s t u d y o f o c c u p a t i o n a l m o b i l i t y i s s u b j e c t e d t o e m p i r i c a l t e s t i n t h i s c h a p t e r . Two s e t s o f a n a l y s e s a r e c a r r i e d o u t . O ne a n a l y s i s i n c l u d e s a l l s o n s a n d f a t h e r s . A s e c o n d a n a l y s i s e x c l u d e s s o n s w h o h a d f a r m e r s f o r f a t h e r s . I n t h i s r e s i d e n t i a l m o b i l i t y p a n e l , t h e r e w e r e n o s o n s w i t h " fa r m in g " a s a n o c c u p a t i o n . T a l c o t t P a r s o n s , "A R e v i s e d A n a l y t i c a l A p p r o a c h t o t h e T h e o r y o f S o c i a l - S t r a t i f i c a t i o n , '1 i n R e in h a r d B e n d ix and S ey m o u r M . L i p s e t , ed s. , C l a s s , S t a t u s a n d P o w e r ( G l e n c o e , I l l i n o i s : T he F r e e P r e s s , 19& 3)> p . 119. 6 I n a p e r s o n a l c o n v e r s a t i o n , P r o f e s s o r B e r t A dam s o f t h e U n i v e r s i t y o f W i s c o n s i n p o i n t e d o u t t h i s p a r a d o x . 66 L ife -C y c le , Career H is to r ie s , and M o b ility 7 L ip s e t and Bendix' have p oin ted out th a t the co n v en tion al measure ment o f m o b ility i3 not s p e c if ic fo r age. This p r e se n ts problems in a n a ly s is o f both ca reer and in ter g e n e ra tio n a l m o b ility . There are sev era l ways to r e s o lv e t h is d i f f i c u l t y . An a g e-years coh ort a n a ly s is would be an ap p rop riate tech n iq u e. However, t h is s o lu t io n r eq u ir es a sample o f such magnitude th a t age cohorts can be d e lin e a te d w ith in i t , a n o n -rep resen ta tiv e sample, or a weighted sample so th a t enough ca ses would be a v a ila b le fo r a n a ly s is . A cohort a n a ly s is would account for "exposure" by varyin g age groups o f fa th e r s and so n s. L ip set and Bendix su g g est th a t s e le c t in g occupation s a t the same stage in th e occu p ation al and l i f e cy cle fo r both fa th er and son as another p o s s ib le s o lu tio n t o t h is problem . A d isadvan tage of t h is techniq ue i s th a t the r e la t iv e p o s itio n o f the fa th e r a t th e tim e h is son e n te r s the lab or fo r c e i s probably th e most r ele v a n t fa c to r a ff e c t in g th e so n 's educa- 9 t io n and career p a tte r n . T his i s an h y p o th esis which could be te s te d by ca reer h is to r y d ata fo r both fa th e r s and so n s. Presum ably, th en , what i s needed i s a career h is to r y o f b oth fa th e r s and sons - a g o a l, however, which appears to be u n a tta in a b le sin c e t h is req u ires com plete 10 occu p ation al h is t o r ie s for both fa th e r s and son s. 7 'Seymour M. L ip s e t and Reinhard B endix, S o c ia l M o b ility in Indus t r i a l S o c ie ty (B erk eley and Los A ngeles: U n iv e r sity o f C a lifo r n ia P r e ss , 19^ 3), p . 182. 8 Leo F . Schnore, " S ocial M o b ility in a Demographic P e r sp ec tiv e ," American S o c io lo g ic a l Review, 26 (June 1961) , p . i+17• ^ L ip set and B endix, op. c i t . and B endix, i b i d . As an a lt e r n a t iv e t o com plete o ccu p ation al h is t o r ie s o f th e fa t h e r a n d so n , G la ss su g g e sts th a t on ly th e main occu pation o f peop le p a s t $0 o f th o s e p a st 50 y e a rs o f age are probably th e most p r e s t ig e f u l o c c u - n e g le c t the tim e fa c to r in volved in sch o o lin g and tr a in in g and th e u se o f t h i s tech n iq u e probably would n o t be s u c c e s s fu l s in c e many, i f n o t m o st, o f th e so n s en tered th e la b o r fo rce a t a la te r age in the l i f e - overcaaes th e above problem by a rg u in g th a t a comparison should be made a t th e in c e p tio n of ca reer r e g a r d le ss o f age d i f f e r e n t i a l s . An argu ment a g a in s t t h i s procedure i s th a t a son may s ta r t a t a low er s t a t u s th an h i s f a t h e r , equal h is fa th er and then surpass him . So m atter what s o lu t io n is o ff e r e d , th ey a l l s u ffe r in r esp e c t to a com parison which would be made over th e e n tir e work h is t o r y of b o th *^ G lass, l o c . c i t . ■^Tasuda, l o c . c i t . , pp» 1 6 -2 3 - 13 C r o ck ett, l o c . c i t . y e a r s o f age be u s e d .^ Yasuda p o in ts o u t, how ever, th a t t h is om its 12 m ost o f th e p o p u la tio n . Furtherm ore, C rock ett su g g e sts occu p ation s p a tio n s ever h e ld . L ip se t and B endix would e f f e c t a compromise by comparing fa t h e r and son a t th e same age l e v e l . These s o lu tio n s These s o lu tio n s T ^ * i Z c y c le than did t h e ir f a t h e r s . Yasuda h a s made a su g g e stio n w hich 16 Y asuda, l o c . c i t . th e fa th e r and son. In t h is r e se a r c h we were n o t a il© t o mancle a la r g e enough p o p u la tio n to ap p ly th e fo r e g o in g c o n tr o ls , aasaf we did. not o b ta in lo n g itu d in a l data fo r th e f a t h e r s . OccnpatiCTHii h is t e z y data fo r an e le v e n year period fo r most sons a llo w s a n a n a ly s is a c ro ss a somewhat len g th y p eriod o f tim e and g iv e s a rough p ic tu r e th e a s s ' occu p ation al h is to r y in com parison t o h is f a t h e r ’s m ain (osgTrgregiflE.- In n e ith e r a n a ly s is have we overcome a l l o f th e objectiaans lis t e d , e a r li e r , bu t th e a n a ly se s should in d ic a te i f o ccu p a tio n a l c f both son and fa th e r would be w orthw hile g a th er in g i n iiatmr© rgseercfe.- In a d d itio n , the o ccu p a tio n a l h is t o r ie s o f th e s o n s , a© camagaglaBdj in to ca reer p a tte r n s , should a c t a s a rough c o n tr o l iff a^© siffarezifcis.ls. C a te g o r iz a tio n and C a te g o r iz a tio n C r o s s -C la s s if ic a t io n In m o b ility r e se a r c h , as in a l l o th er s o c ia l r e se a r c h , taE- grc-c-1 ea: o f c a te g o r iz a tio n must be fa c e d . In t h i s r e p o r t, th e ItazQcsm s o c ic - economic ind ex i s used a s a c l a s s i f i c a t i o n scheme f o r th e ^ h c a se - h o ld s o ccu p a tio n a t v a r io u s p o in ts i n tim e , fo r th e occujeiitiai. a£ th e fa th e r o f the head o f h o u seh o ld , and for t h e d e sire d B ccopsifT r tn e 17 c h ild re n a s exp ressed by th e resp o n d en t. The i n i t i a l c a te g o r ie s fo r o ccu p a tio n s, th en , a r s th o s e aerlw ed by Duncan from h is a n a ly s is o f 1950 U nited S ta te s Census tUst©- T h is -ri^fer i s based upon ed u ca tio n and income as th ey a re r e la te d t n * rugrjpr o f o ccu p a tio n s. As a l l oth er in d e x e s, i t i s a t b e s t a 17 A lb ert J . R e is s , J r . , e_t a l . , O ccupations mud S o c ia l S t a t e s (S sg York: The F ree P r e ss o f G len coe, 1961) , s e e e s p e c ia lly Easepses* T&^Ttl- fo r th e com plex th a t makes up occu p ation s and t h e ir s t a t u s . never t h e le s s , i t appears to be th e b e s t a v a ila b le index and i s c u r r e n tly w id ely used in s o c ia l r e se a r c h . I t s u s e , however, should not obscure th e f a c t th a t a lte r n a tiv e in d exes are a v a ila b le and have been used by 19 oth er r e s e a r c h e r s . On th e oth er hand, i t should be made c le a r th a t no m atter what ind ex would have been u sed , o b je c tio n s cou ld le g itim a te ly be made a g a in s t them. The Duncan SES index appears to be th e b e s t a v a ila b le index fo r t h is problem . That i s , not o n ly .movement in a h ierarch y o f occu p ation s must be d eterm ined, but a t l e a s t a rough measure o f p r e tig e must be included in order to speak of " m ob ility," in a v e r t ic a l s e n s e . Ver t i c a l m o b ility , a s a c o n cep t, im p lie s s ta tu s change. The Duncan SES index fu r n ish e s a h iera rch y of occu pation s which allo w s m eaningful 20 v e r t ic a l measurement both in an o b je c tiv e and p r e s tig e se n se . The Duncan index has score v a lu e s varyin g from a low SES valu e o f 01 to a h ig h valu e o f 9&. The index i s such th at i t i s in e v ita b le th a t lo s s o f in form ation w ill occur a s i t does not d isc rim in a te w ith in the same o ccu p a tio n . In a d d itio n , th e la r g e number o f c a te g o r ie s makes mandatory e ith e r an extrem ely la r g e sample or th e c o lla p s in g of index c a te g o r ie s in to a sm aller number. For examptey™some resea rch on occu p a tio n a l m o b ility has been reported which used th e dichotomy o f manual 18 C harles F . W esto ff, Marvin B r e s s le r , and P h ilip C. S a g i, "The Concept o f S o c ia l M o b ility : An E m pirical I n q u ir y ,■ American S o c io lo g ic a l R eview . 25 (June i 960) , pp. 37^*385- 19For one exam ple, see Alba M. Edwards, Comparative O ccupation S ta t i s t i c s fo r th e U nited S t a t e s , I 87O to 19^*0 (W ashington, D .C .: Govern ment P r in tin g O ffic e , 19^+3); a ls o see R e iss e t a l . , op. c i t . ^® 0tis D. Duncan and Robert W . Hodge, "Education and O ccupational M o b ility : A R eg ressio n A n a ly sis," American Journal o f S o c io lo g y . 68 (May 1963) , p . 630. and non-manual w orkers. However, t h is seems to be an u n n e c e ssa r ily r e s t r ic t iv e p r a c tic e , and th ere a r e manual occu pation s which may req u ire more ed u ca tio n and y ie ld high er pay, and perhaps h igh er p r e s tig e than 22 some non-manual o ccu p a tio n s. In th e p resen t r ese a rc h , g e n e r a lly two d if f e r e n t s e t 3 o f a n a ly ses are made o f v e r t ic a l m o b ility . One a n a ly s is u t i l i z e s four c a te g o r ie s o f SES sco res w ith farm ers in clu d ed . The second a n a ly s is has th e same fou r c a te g o r ie s w ith farm ers e lim in a te d . The four c a te g o r ie s roughly rep resen t th e em p irical d is t r ib u t io n o f th e occu pation s of th e head of households in th is sam ple. There appeared to be a number o f s p e c if ic occu p ation al c a te g o r ie s in which few respondents were found. Fortunately, t h is created observab le gaps in index sco r e s which served as g u id e lin e s to c u ttin g p o in ts to e s t a b lis h th e fou r c a t e g o r ie s . The only category where t h is was not s t r i c t l y true is fo r th e farm ers who were removed from the lo w e st SES group. As in d ic a te d p r e v io u sly , t h is procedure a llo w s an approxim ation as to what e x te n t farm ers and th e ir sons in flu e n c e the o v e r a ll m o b ility p ic tu r e . 23 C a rlsson has p oin ted out th a t in any c la s s if i c a t i o n scheme th ere are se v e r a l o r ie n ta tio n d e c is io n s th a t need to be made. A d e c is io n must ^ L ip s e t and B en d ix, op. c i t . . pp. ll*-17> used t h is dichotom y and presented a r a tio n a le fo r doing s o . On th e other hand, Schnore, p p . c i t ., pp. I4 I 5 and 1*20, has argued a g a in st the u se of t h is dichotomy in s t r a t i f ic a t io n r e se a r c h . 22 See th e SES and N O R C ind ex sc o r e s in R e is s , op. c i t . . fo r data which su b sta n tia te t h i s statem en t. 23 C a rlsso n , l o o , c i t . , pp. 27-28. 71 be made fo r each o f the fo llo w in g : ( l ) to co n stru ct a rb itra ry c l a s s i f ic a t io n s or u t i l i z e real or su b sta n tiv e c a te g o r ie s ; ( 2) to u se a u n i dim ensional or m u ltid im ension al scheme; ( 3) t o u se a continuum or d is c r e te c la s s e s ; (4 ) to base th e c l a s s i f i c a t i o n upon su b je c tiv e or ob j e c t iv e in d ex e s, i . e . , the H O H C p r e s tig e r a tin g s and Duncan's SES system, r e s p e c tiv e ly ; and ( 5 ) to choose & c rwnmrrity or mass s o c ie ty approach. Our d e c is io n s are as fo llo w s : A . c o sE D c ilf approach, i s u sed . The index o f occu p ation s i s an o b je c tiv e one w hich c l a s s i f i e s occupations in to a continuum; however, on th e b a s is o f n e c e s s it y , th e continuum was co lla p se d in to fo u r d is t in c t c a te g o r ie s ^ tic h were based upon th e empi r ic a l d is tr ib u tio n o f index s c o r e s. & e c l a s s i f i c a t i o n system should be thought o f a s rep resen tin g s o c ia l c a te g o r ie s rather than r e a l groups. I I I . Measurement. Problems In tro d u ctio n An e x te n siv e lit e r a t u r e d is c u s se s th e m e r its and d em erits o f various occu p ation al c la s s i f i c a t i o n systan s supfl th e ir u se fo r m easuring occupa tio n a l m o b ility . C lo sely a l l i e d and perhaps a p art o f the same problem i s t h a t , out o f n e c e s s it y , a n a ly sis procedures g e n e r a lly r e s u lt in c o l la p s in g the la r g e number o f c a te g o r ie s i n th e se c l a s s i f i c a t i o n system s. However, once th e c a te g o r iz a tio n d e c is io n i s made, th e r e rem ains a pro blem o f determ inin g which s t a t i s t i c a l tech n icp e w i l l ad eq u ately d escrib e oh what has taken p la c e in e it h e r career o r in ter g e n e ra tio n a l m o b i l i t y .^ 2lt C arlsson , l o c . c i t . . p . 76 72 E arly s tu d ie s o f v e r t ic a l m o b ility used com parisons between fa th e r and son, or changes from e a r lie r held occu p ation s to lateT ~h eld occupa t io n s . The a n a ly ses r e su lte d in statem ents a s to the number and p ercen ta g e o f p erson s who made changes from one ca teg o ry to another and o f • • * th ose who remained in the same category. However, c r it ic is m of t h i s 25 approach was made by R ogoff and there c o n tin u e s to p e r s i s t a methodo lo g ic a l d isc u s sio n as to which i s the b e st manner to d e sc r ib e v e r t ic a l m o b ility . O utlined below are some a lte r n a tiv e m easures; several t h a t p r e v io u sly have been used to measure s o c ia l m o b ility and one which h a s n ot been used h e r e to fo r e . S t a b ilit y Index and Index o f A sso c ia tio n The e a r l i e s t used tech n iq u e o f comparing careers a t two p o in ts in tim e c o n siste d o f comparing th e occupation o f th e son w ith that o f th e fa th e r and c a lc u la tin g th e percen tages to determ ine th e amount o f change. T his approach was c r it ic i z e d by R ogoff on th e grounds th a t i t did n o t 27 p a r tia l out str u c tu r a l from in d iv id u a l m o b ility . Separatin g s tr u c tu r a l from in d iv id u a l m o b ility was perceived t o be n ecessa ry as a r e s u lt o f te c h n o lo g ic a l advancement and th e a sso c ia te d demand fo r more h ig h ly s k ille d , i . e . , high er pay and s ta tu s person nel th a t has tak en p lace during r ec e n t decades in American s o c ie t y . T h is change means th a t a 25 N a ta lie R ogoff, R ecent Trends in O ccupational M o b ility (G len coe, I l l i n o i s : The Free P r e ss , 1 9 5 3 ). 2 6 See fo o tn o te s 34"43 fo r refer en ce s. 27 R o g o ff, 0£ . c i t . 73 g i v e n i n d i v i d u a l , f o r e x a m p l e , c o u l d r i s e o v e r h i s f a t h e r ' s o c c u p a t i o n a l c l a s s a n d y e t n o t h e r i s i n g a s r a p i d l y a s t h e t o t a l p o p u l a t i o n * A n i n d i v i d u a l , t h e n , m ay b e r i s i n g , b u t n o t a s f a s t a s " e x p e c t e d " o n t h e b a s i s o f s o c i e t a l s t r u c t u r a l c h a n g e s . O f c o u r s e , s a n e d o w n w a rd m o b i l i t y o c c u r s , b u t c u r r e n t dow n m o v e m e n t, a s i n t h e p a s t , a p p e a r s t o b e a p h e n o m en o n m u ch l e s s e x i s t a n t t h a n u p w a r d m o b i l i t y . T h i s a p p e a r s t o h o l d p O , t r u e f o r t h e c o n t e m p o r a r y U n i t e d S t a t e s a s w e l l a s e l s e w h e r e . R o g o f f d e v e l o p e d a t e c h n i q u e w h ic h p a r t i a l s o u t s t r u c t u r a l f r o m i n d i v i d u a l m o b i l i t y a n d i n d i c a t e s w h a t s h e d e s c r i b e s a s " s o c i a l d i s t a n c e 29 m o b i l i t y . " S o c i a l d i s t a n c e m o b i l i t y , a c c o r d i n g t o R o g o f f , i s d e f i n e d a s t h e r a t i o b e t w e e n a c t u a l m o b i l i t y a s r e p r e s e n t e d b y t h e N ' s i n e a c h c e l l w i t h t h e a m o u n t o f m o b i l i t y e x p e c t e d o n t h e b a s i s o f n o r e l a t i o n s h i p b e t w e e n o n e o c c u p a t i o n a l c l a s s c o m p a r e d w i t h a n o t h e r o c c u p a t i o n a l c l a s s , i . e . , s o n ' s o c c u p a t i o n a l c l a s s a n d t h e o c c u p a t i o n a l c l a s s o f h i s f a t h e r . M o b i l i t y , t h e n , i n t h i s s e n s e i s t o t a l m o b i l i t y d i v i d e d b y t h e dem and f a c t o r . "T he d e f i n i t i o n o f s o c i a l d i s t a n c e m o b i l i t y c o r r e s p o n d s e x a c t l y t o t h e d e f i n i t e d o f e x p e c t e d v a l u e s a s t h e y a r e u s e d i n c o n v e n t i o n a l c o n t i n g e n c y a n a l y s i s . " I t s h o u ld b e p o i n t e d o u t , h o w e v e r , t h a t i n p r a c t i c e t h e d i a g o n a l c e l l s , w h ic h i n d i c a t e i m m o b i l i t y , h a v e b e e n o m i t t e d . R o g o f f p r e s e n t s a f u l l t r e a t m e n t o f t h e s e an d o t h e r d e r i v a t i v e i n d e x e s , a n d p r e s e n t s a r a t i o n a l e f o r t h e i r u s e . L i p s e t a n d B e n d i x , o p . c i t . ^ T h e d i s c u s s i o n t h a t f o l l o w s i s b a s e d u p o n R o g o f f , o p . c i t . , C h a p t e r s I I a n d H I . W h ere q u o t a t i o n s * a r e g i v e n , t h e m a t e r i a l w a s t a k e n d i r e c t l y fr o m h e r w o r k . In p r a c t ic e , i f th e a ctu a l amount o f m o b ility i s th e same as th e expected m ount, th e r a t i o , or in d ex , w i l l be u n ity o f 1 .0 . When tw ice as many s o n s, a s in in te r g e n e r a tio n a l m o b ility , as exp ected e n te r an occu p a tio n a l c l a s s , th e ind ex w ill be 2 .0 . An index l e s s than one in d ic a te s th a t few er than th e exp ected amount o f persons entered th a t occu p a tio n a l c l a s s . The valu e o f the index i s 0 .0 when no persons - entered th e occu p ation al c la s s to an index sc o r e . The upward lim it i s determ ined by m arginal t o t a ls and flu c t u a te s on th a t b a s is . As R ogoff p oin ted o u t, th e d iffe r e n c e in r a t io s whether based on th e same ta b le or from d if f e r e n t ta b le s i s in no way a ttr ib u ta b le to v a r ia tio n s in the 30 a v a ila b ilit y o f occu p ation al p o s it io n s . In t h is research we s h a ll u se two d if f e r e n t in d exes based upon R ogoff*s work. F i r s t , the s o -c a lle d H in d ex o f a sso c ia tio n " or s o c ia l d ista n c e m o b ility w ill be g iv en fo r b oth in te r and in tra g en era tio n a l occupation al m o b ility . T his in d ex , we r e c a l l , i s c a lc u la te d w ith "the diagonal c e l l s exclu d ed , and i s based upon th e t o t a l m o b ility o f th e rem aining c e l l s devided by th e demand f a c t o r . The e x te n t of m o b ility in th e d ia g o n a ls d ivid ed by th e demand fa c to r in d ic a te s what R ogoff c a l l s "im m obility." W e s h a ll r e f e r t o t h is index a s th e s t a b i l i t y index Both o f th ese m easures, th e index o f a s s o c ia tio n and th e s t a b i l i t y index are c a lc u la te d and u t iliz e d in th e fo llo w in g s e c t io n o f t h i s chapter to h e lp d e scr ib e th e m o b ility exp erien ce of th e r e s id e n t ia l m o b ility p a n el. 30 Y asuda, l o c . c i t . , p. 17> p o in ts ou t th a t th e ind ex i s not in dependent o f th e m arginal d is t r ib u t io n . For com parative p u rp o ses, th e in d ex o f a s s o c ia tio n has been calcu la te d and then subtracted from one. This procedure a llo w s th e index of a s s o c ia tio n to approxim ate th e T c o e f f ic ie n t and Gam ma d escrib ed in the fo llo w in g p a g es. I t should be kept in mindf however, th a t t h is proce dure i s not d e s ir a b le jlf an index score o f 1 .0 would be su rp assed . For th ese d a ta , th is has not been a problem. 31 The technique developed by R ogoff has been used by C a rlsso n , 32 33 G la ss, C rock ett and o th e r s . R ecen tly th e u se o f t h is ind ex has 3 h been c r it ic i z e d by B i l l i c i e z . T his c r it ic is m le d u s to con sid er a l te r n a tiv e ind exes which m ight more ad eq u ately d e scr ib e v e r t ic a l m obility. nyw s t a t i s t i c B i l l i c i e z ' s o b je c tio n to the index o f a s s o c ia tio n cen tered about the d e fic ie n c y o f maximum index v a lu e s flu c tu a tin g according to maximum 3? m arginal d is tr ib u tio n s v h ich s e ts th e lim it s o f th e R ogoff in d ex. 36 Su bseq uently, Durbin advanced a means o f a v o id in g t h is problem . Ya- 37 suda extended D urbin 's s t a t i s t i c a l su g g estio n s and elaborated upon 31 C a rlsso n , l o c . c i t . 32 G la ss, l o c . c i t . 33 C ro ck ett, l o c . c i t . Z. B ille w ic z , "Seme Remarks on th e Measurement o f S o c ia l Mo b i l i t y ," P o p u la tio n S t u d ie s , 9 (1 9 5 5 -5 6 ), p p . 96-100. 35I b id . 36 J . D urbin, "Appendix Note on a S t a t i s t i c a l Q uestion R aised in the Preceding Paper," P o p u la tio n S tu d ie s . 9 (1 9 5 5 -5 6 ), p . 101. 37 'Yasuda, l o c . c i t . 76 them and showed tome an ind ex could he con stru cted which avoided th e m arginal jjroMam. R e c a llin g - td h n a ft, th e in d ex o f a s s o c ia tio n was c a lc u la te d in th e sta n - t h is measure theni w a ries w ith th e s iz e o f th e m a rg in a ls. Y asuda1 s index o f associaitirom it^fces in to c o n sid e r a tio n flu c tu a tin g m a rg in a ls, and con t r o ls f o r If. The Y ©©efffficisnt i s c a lc u la te d in t h is resea rch and t h is w ill a llo w a comparissam w ith th e R ogoff ind ex o f a s s o c ia tio n and s t a b i l i t y in d ex . In rnaigr r e s p e c t s , both, th e index o f a s s o c ia tio n and th e Y c o e f f i c ie n t w ere atwEnaces over t h e ir p r e d e c e sso r s. However, th e Durbin and Yasuda in d ex i s < n a a > B y a s u b s t it u t e fo r an ind ex o f com plete a s s o c ia t io n . Yasuda w as aware esff t h i s when he evalu ated h i s "Y" ind ex in r e la t io n sh ip to B.ogof’ i f s in d ic e s w ith th e same d a ta d ichotom ized and th e Q s t a t i s t i c . ^ ffiiw index c o r r e la te d much h ig h er than R o g o ff'a w ith Q. Yasuda, how ever, ignored th e f a c t th a t Gamma i s th e more g en eral case exchange betw een Yasuda and Gross over t h is very same problem , see Edward G ross a n w fl SSa&uro Y asuda, "Ceanmunications, On C o n tr o llin g Margi n a ls in S o c ia l lEmfoility M easurement," American S o c io lo g ic a l R eview , 29 (December , pg». 886- 8 8 8 . W. H. E r a s ts ! , "Boasares o f A s s o c ia tio n f o r C r o s s -C la s s if ic a t io n ," Jour n al o f th e Am erican S t a t i s t i c a l A s s o c ia tio n , 1$ (195^+) > pp. 732-764; M orris ZeM itcSa, J r . , A B a sic Course in S o c io lo g ic a l S t a t i s t i c s (New York: Henry fMLit and C anpaiy, 1959) > PP* 18 0 -1 8 6 . dard co n tin g en cy tafole manner, B ille w ic z 7 and Yasuda p o in t out th a t o f Q and wonM aD.sc he a p p lic a b le t o t h i s type o f problem . ^®!Ihat t h i s is s u e has n o t been s e t t le d i s illu s t r a t e d by a r ec e n t ^For a (d iscu ssio n o f th e " Q ," s t a t i s t i c , see Hubert M. B la lo c k , Jr. S o c ia l S t a t i s t i c s CSew York: McGraw-Hill Book C o ., i 96 0 ) , pp. 231— 232. S ee th e fhUlowing f o r a d is c u s s io n o f Gamma. L . A. Goodman and 77 Gamma The gamma s t a t i s t i c p r e v io u sly h a s not been u sed in o ccu p a tio n a l m o b ility r e se a r c h even though i t m eets a l l of Yasuda’ s o b je c tio n s to R o g o ff's te c h n iq u e . Y asuda’ s d ism issa l o f gamma i s perhaps understand ab le when com putational problem s are taken in to c o n sid e r a tio n . I t i s cumbersome and te d io u s to compute by tr a d itio n a l m ethods, i . e . , hand or hand c a lc u la t o r . However, com puters are adm irably s u ite d fo r th e kirri - o f m a trix s o lu t io n req u ired by gamma. A program was w r itte n f o r t h is resea rch which ca n u t i l i z e a 99 x 99 c e l l m a trix . Duncan's SES in d ex , fo r exam ple, f i t s w ith in th e program lim ita tio n s q u ite w e ll. In addi t io n , th e program a llo w s c o lla p s in g o f v a r io u s c a te g o r ie s at th e d is c r e tio n o f th e r e se a r c h e r . T h e Gamma s t a t i s t i c i s an i n d e x o f c o m p le t e a s s o c i a t i o n . I t i s , th en , based e s s e n t i a l l y on th e id ea o f p r e d ic tin g th e order B w ith r e s - ii2 p e c t t o A on s u c c e s s iv e draw s. An assum ption o f Gamma is i n t r i n s i c o rd er, bu t n e ith e r a zero p o in t or equal in te r v a ls a re n ec essa ry . G am m a i s e s s e n t ia ll y th e same s t a t i s t i c as Q b u t i t is th e more g en era l c a se . The range o f Gamma v a lu e s i s from p lu s, one to pinus o n e . Two im portant p r o p e r tie s o f th e s t a t i s t i c need to be noted th ey a re as fo llo w s : ( l ) I t has a v a lu e o f 1 i f th e p o p u la tio n i s con cen trated in an up per- l e f t to low er— r ig h t d ia g o n a l. I f a low er— l e f t to upper— r ig h t con cen tra tio n e x i s t s , i t has a v a lu e o f - 1 . (2 ) G am m a i s indeterm inant i f the p o p u la tio n i s con cen trated in a s in g le row or column o f th e c r o s s — ^ Z e l d i t c h , l o c . c i t . ^Goodman and K ru sk al, l o c . c i t . c l a s s i f i c a t i o n ta b le . The s e c o n d e r op erty above i s not a s p e c ia l pro blem in th a t i f th e d ata are a v a ila b le , in sp e c tio n w i l l e a s ily determ ine i f th e d is t r ib u t io n i s one not s u ita b le fo r th e s t a t i s t i c . I f t h is kind o f d is t r ib u t io n is observed, o b v io u sly some s t a t i s t i c oth er than G am m a i s needed. In a d d itio n to th e ind ex o f a s s o c ia t io n , s t a b i l i t y in d ex , and the Y c o e f f i c i e n t , Gam ma w ill be c a lc u la te d in th e a n a ly se s of b oth in te r and in tra g e n e r a tio n a l occu p ation al m o b ility . The c a lc u la tio n o f each o f th ese ind exes should a ffo rd a com parison and in d ic a t e , a t l e a s t in some d e g ree, i f th e con troversy over which index to u se i s r ele v a n t when ’■real" data are u se d . This d is c u s s io n has dem onstrated seme of the d i f f i c u l t i e s in mea suring career and in te r g e n e r a tio n a l s o c ia l m o b ility . The measurement is su e i s a v i t a l one and must be c la r i f ie d b efo re the in flu e n c e o f h o r i zo n ta l and v e r t ic a l m o b ility on r e s id e n tia l m o b ility can p rop erly be a s s e s s e d . In a d d itio n , we have assumed th a t m eaningful assessm en ts o f m o b ility can be made w ith out m easuring s tr u c tu r a l m o b ility . D e c isio n s and Summary The m eth od ological c o n sid e r a tio n s p rio r to s t a t i s t i c a l measurement con sid ered in t h is s e c tio n were the farmer problem, th a t i s , should they be excluded or included in th e a n a ly s is ; l i f e c y c le and ca reer h is t o r ie s were d iscu ssed and some o f th e ir a tten d a n t problems r e la te d to v a rio u s c h o ic e s were o u tlin e d ; and, f in a lly th e f i r s t s e c t io n o f th e chapter was com pleted w ith a d is c u s s io n o f c a te g o r ie s and c a te g o r iz a tio n c r o ss c l a s s i f i c a t i o n . D e cisio n s made concerning each o f th e above problems are now made e x p l i c i t . These d e c is io n s were a s fo llo w s : ( l ) I t was d e- cid ed to t e s t the assum ption th a t farmers and th e ir sons unduly a ffe c te d th e a n a ly sis o f in ter g e n e ra tio n a l and in tra g e n e r a tio n a l occu p ation al m o b ility . T his was to be accom plished by two a n a ly s e s, one w ith farm ers and th e ir son s included and one w ith them exclu d ed . (2 ) No age c o n tr o ls were made fo r the v e r t ic a l m o b ility a n a ly se s, although the occu p ation al career p a tte r n data a v a ila b le fo r most sons made p o ssib le a com parison a c ro ss tim e w hich a c t s a s a rough age c o n tr o l. (3) The index o f occu p a tio n s used i s an o b je c tiv e one which c l a s s i f i e s occu pation s in t o a continuum . On th e b a s is o f n e c e s s ity , the continuum was c o lla p se d in to four d i s t i n c t c a te g o r ie s . (Ij) The c l a s s i f i c a t i o n system and the re s u ltin g groups should be thought o f as r ep resen tin g s o c ia l c a te g o r ie s rath er than r e a l groups. I t was d ecid ed th a t the fo llo w in g s t a t i s t i c a l m easures would be u t iliz e d in t h i s resea rch : ( l ) Index o f A ss o c ia tio n , (2 ) S t a b ilit y Index, (3 ) Y C o e f f ic ie n t , and (I4) Gamma. Each o f th e se s t a t i s t i c s was b r ie f ly d escrib ed and th e r a tio n a le f o r in clu d in g a l l o f them fo r com parative purposes was d isc u sse d . I V . V e r t i c a l O c c u p a t io n a l M o b i l i t y E x p e r i e n c e s T h is s e c t i o n o f t h e c h a p t e r i s c o n c e r n e d w i t h th e c a r e e r a n d i n t e r g e n e r a t i o n a l o c c u p a t i o n a l m o b i l i t y e x p e r i e n c e o f t h e m em b ers w h o m ake u p t h e s a m p le f o r t h e r e s i d e n t i a l m o b i l i t y p a n e l . F o r e a c h c o m p a r is o n , t h e s t a t i s t i c s d e s c r i b e d i n t h e l a s t s e c t i o n w i l l b e i n d i c a t e d a n d t h e v e r t i c a l m o b i l i t y e x p e r i e n c e o f t h e s a m p le m em b ers w i l l b e e v a l u a t e d i n r e s p e c t t o o u r h y p o t h e s e s . T h e N ' s w i l l f l u c t u a t e fr o m t a b l e t o t a b l e a s a r e s u l t o f n o i n f o r m a t i o n b e i n g a v a i l a b l e f o r e i t h e r o r b o t h o f t h e tw o o c c u p a t i o n s u n d e r c o n s i d e r a t i o n . T he f i r s t t a b l e i n e a c h s e r i e s w i l l p r e s e n t t h e N ' s a n d a s e c o n d o n e w i l l i n d i c a t e t h e c a l c u l a t e d p e r c e n t a g e s . 80 O ccupational Career M o b ility ; 1950 and 1961 O ccupational ca reer m o b ility w ith a l l son s in clu d ed , a s measured betw een 1950 and 1 9 6 1 , i s illu s t r a t e d in T ab les 2 and 3 - The s t a b i l i t y ind ex o f 2*9^4 in d ic a te s th a t compared w ith 1950 o c cu p a tio n s, a lm o st th ree tim es th e exp ected number o f sons were in th e sane o ccu p a tio n a l s tr a ta in 19&1. The index of a s s o c ia t io n was .6 8 , th e Y c o e f f ic ie n t ^73, and Gamma was c a lc u la te d to be .8 2 . Each o f th ese in d ic e s in d ic a te s a r e la t iv e l y s t a b le r e la tio n s h ip betw een th e 1950 and 1961 occu p a tio n a l c l a s s i f i c a t i o n s . The h ig h e s t occu p a tio n a l stratum was th e most sta b le over th e e le ven year p eriod w ith 9^ 4 Per c en t rem aining in th e same c a te g o r y . S ix per cen t were downwardly m o b ile, w ith s l i g h t l y over one per c en t f a l l i n g to th e lo w e st o ccu p ation al l e v e l . In the h ig h m iddle group, 7^4*3 per cen t remained s t a b le , and s l i g h t l y over e le v e n per c e n t w ere upwardly m o b ile. On th e oth er hand, over fo u rtee n per cen t were downwardly mobile, or th ree per cen t more than th o se who were upwardly m o b ile. In th e low m iddle stratum , alm ost 63 per c e n t were s ta b le over th e o b serv a tio n p e r io d . Downward movement was observed in 5*8 per cen t o f the c a s e s and upward m o b ility in 31 -^ 4 per c e n t . In th e lo w e st o ccu p a tio n a l SES c a te g o r y , no downward movement, o f c o u r se , i s p o s s ib le . S t a b ilit y was shown by 6 2 .1 per c e n t o f th e lo w e st group and upward m o b ility was de m onstrated by 37*9 P®r c e n t o f t h i s stratu m . The amount of upward m o b ility shown by th e two lo w e st groups accounts fo r most of th e la c k of com plete correspondence betw een th e two observa t io n d a t e s . I t i s s tr ik in g th a t th ere was more downward than upward mo b i l i t y in the upper m iddle group. The extrem e s t a b i l i t y o f th e upper c l a s s i f i c a t i o n group i s a lso of n o te and th e few c a s e s o f downward mobi l i t y were m ainly to th e n ext lo w e st c a teg o ry . 81 Table 2 — Male Head of Household's Occupations, 1950 and 19&1: Career Mobility 1950 O ccupational SES x y c i O ccupational Low Low M iddle High M iddle High Total Low 123 8 k 2 137 Low M iddle 38 86 16 - ll+O H igh M iddle 21 23 lQh 7 155 High 16 20 16 M 193 T otal 198 137 l l |0 150 625 S t a b ilit y Index Index of A ss o c ia tio n Y C o e ffic ie n t Gamma 2 .9 k C O M D • •73 .8 2 82 Sable 3 - M & Le Head o f H ousehold's O ccupations, 1950 and 19&1: Career M o b ility (P ercen tages) 1950 O ccupational SES 1961 O c c u p a t io n a l SES Low Low M id d le H ig h M id d le H i £ i L ow 62.1 5 .8 2 .9 1 .3 L ow M id d le 1 9 .2 6 2 .8 11.u 0 .0 H ig h M id d le 1 0 .6 1 6 .8 l k \ l h-7 H igh . 8.1 11+.6 1 1 .1 + 2k -0 T o t a l 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 A ll th r e e o f our b a sic h yp oth eses concerning o ccu p a tio n a l ca reer m o b ility were v e r if ie d . That i s , no more than h a lf of th e persons in any g iv en occu p ation al c la s s held an occu p ation o u tsid e th a t c l a s s , oc cu p a tio n a l m o b ility was most l ik e ly to be a cro ss ad ja cen t occu p ation al c la s s e s , and th er e was more upward than downward m o b ility . The l a s t h y p o th e sis, however, could be q u a lifie d in th a t th e h igh -m id dle SES had a g rea ter amount o f downward than upward m o b ility . A ls o , persons in th e h ig h SES had to remain sta tio n a r y or move downward. O ccupational changes between 1950 and 19&1 w ith farm ers' sons ex cluded a re shown in T ables I4 and 5» The s t a b i l i t y ind ex o f 2 .7 9 is s lig h t l y l e s s th an th e same index c a lcu la te d w ith fa n n ers in clu d ed . The index i l l u s t r a t e s th a t alm ost th ree tim es a s many as expected "inherited" or remained in t h e ir r e s p e c tiv e occu pation al c la s s from 1950 to 1 9 6 1 . T his same a s s o c ia tio n is illu s t r a t e d by th e ind ex of a s s o c ia tio n o f .63 compared to an index score o f .68 fo r the t o t a l sam ple, a Y c o e f f ic ie n t o f .70 compared t o a c o e f f ic ie n t o f *73 fo r the e n tir e sam ple, and a G am m a o f .8 0 compared to one o f .82 fo r th e whole p a n el. I n t h e h i g h e s t o c c u p a t i o n a l c l a s s i f i c a t i o n , dow n w ard movement w a s r e la t iv e ly ra re w ith 9^ 4 P®r cen t rem aining in the same ca teg o ry over the elev en year p eriod ; upward movement, o f c o u rse, was not p o s s ib le . In the high-m iddle c l a s s i f i c a t i o n , 72 per cen t remained in th e same category over th e o b serv a tio n p erio d . E leven per cent moved upward and s lig h t ly over 16 per cen t were downwardly m o b ile. In th e two lo w e st occu p ation al c a te g o r ie s , 5 8 .8 per c e n t in the low and 57*3 per c e n t in the low -m iddle groups were s ta b le over the te n year o b serv a tio n p e r io d . In the low group, over 1|0 per cen t were upwardly m obile w ith no downward movement p o s s ib le . In th e low m iddle group, alm ost 37 per cen t were upwardly m o b ile, and 5*8 per cen t were downwardly m o b ile. 81* Table 1* - Male Head of Household’s Occupations, 1950-19&1: Career Mobility (Farmers' Sons Excluded) 1950 O ccupational SES 1 9 6 1 . O ccupational SES Low Low M iddle High M iddle High T otal Low 81 6 1 * 2 93 Low M iddle 26 S SL 16 0 101 High M iddle 17 20 88 6 131 High I k 18 11* m 173 T otal 138 103 122 135 1*98 S t a b ilit y Index Index of A ss o c ia tio n Y C o e ffic ie n t Gamma 2 .7 9 .63 .7 0 .8 0 85 T a b le 5 — M a le H ead o f H o u s e h o l d ' s O c c u p a t i o n s , 1 9 5 0 - 1 9 6 1 , F a r m e r s • S o n s E x c lu d e d : C a r e e r M o b i l i t y ( P e r c e n t a g e s ) 19^5 O ccupational SES 1961 _______________________________ O ccupational SES Low Low M iddle H igh Middle High Low 5 8 .8 5 .8 3 .3 1 .5 Low M iddle 1 8 .8 ' 51* 3 1 3 .1 0 .0 High M iddle 1 2 .3 1 9 J& . 7 2 .1 High 10.1 1 7 .5 1 1 .5 9 if.i T otal 100 .0 1 0 0 .0 1 0 0 .0 1 0 0 .0 86 The fin d in g s su g g est th a t downward m o b ility i s r e la t iv e l y rare in the lower occu p ation al groups, and fu rth er su g g est th a t upward m o b ility i s more l i k e l y among th e lower occu p ation al groups than among t h e in te r m ediate group where downward m o b ility is more l i k e l y . As a r e s u lt o f t h i s a n a ly s is , we may conclude th a t the in c lu sio n o f farm ers' sons i n any a n a ly sis o f occu p ation al ca re e r m o b ility does not a lt e r th e b a s ic fin d in g s . A cco rd in g ly , th e c o r o lla r y h yp o th esis fo r each o f th e primary h yp otheses which s t a t e s th a t "the in c lu s io n of farm ers and t h e ir sons w i l l not a l t e r th e b a sic h yp othesis" i s a ccep ted . Occupational Career P a ttern s O ccupational ca reer p a tte rn s were observed over an e le v e n year p eriod fo r th o se respondents who were in th e labor fo r c e a s o f A p ril 1 , 1950. For th o se male heads of households who were not in th e lab or fo r c e a t th a t t i n e , ca reer p a ttern s were observed from tim e o f entry through June, I 96I - Data c o lle c t io n tech n iq u es were such th a t some job changes may have been m issed . The m ale head o f h o u seh o ld s, in clu d in g farm ers' so n s, are c l a s s i - lill fie d by th e fo llo w in g c a te g o r ie s: ( l ) The S ta tio n a r y : Those male head of households who did not move froei one occu p ation al SES categ o ry t o another during th e o b serv a tio n period of 1950 t o 1961. G u sfie ld , op . c i t . , g r a p h ic a lly illu s t r a t e d many of th ese c a te g o r ie s . L itv a k u t i l i z e d th e fo llo w in g c a te g o r ie s : (1 ) S ta tio n a ry Upper; (2 ) Upwardly M obile; (3 ) Downwardly M obile; and (1|) S ta tio n a ry Manual. See Eugene L itw ak, "Occupational M o b ility and Extended Fam ily C ohesion," American S o c io lo g ic a l R eview , 25 (February I960)* pp. 9 -2 1 . 87 (2) The Upwardly M obile: Heads who moved in t o a h igh er occu p ation al SES category over the o b serv a tio n period and did not descend su b seq u en tly. The 1950 upper SES group, o f co u r se , was excluded from t h i s category as no upward m o b ility was p o s s ib le fo r them . (3) The Downwardly M obile: Those heads who moved in to a low er occu p ation al SES category over the o b serv a tio n p eriod and d id n ot ascend during th e same p erio d . The 1950 lo w est SES categ o ry was excluded from t h is group as no downward movement was p o s s ib le fo r them. (2+) F lu c tu a tin g P a tte r n : Those male head o f households who were not sta tio n a r y and d id not dem onstrate a s ta b le ascend ing or descending p a ttern were a ssig n ed to t h i s ca teg o ry ; to be placed in t h is c a te g o r y , a son had to have a t l e a s t th ree occu p ation al category changes during the o b serv a tio n p e r io d . Shown in Table 6 are the occu p ation al career p a ttern s of a l l s o n s , in clu d in g farm ers’ so n s. Almost 68 per cen t o f the head of households had sta tio n a r y career p a tte r n s. Twenty-two per c e n t were upwardly m obile and 6 .3 per cen t were downwardly m o b ile. A sm all percentage o f the panel had flu c tu a tin g ca reer p a tte r n s. Table 7 in clu d es d ata fo r th ose a l l male heads of households fo r whom inform ation were a v a ila b le fo r th e e n tir e p eriod of A p ril 1 , 1950> to June, 1 9 6 1 . These p ercentages vary only s l i g h t l y from when the e n tir e sample was ta k en in to c o n sid e r a tio n . A s lig h t l y h ig h er percen ta g e have sta tio n a r y ca reer p a ttern s and about th ree per c en t were found to be upwardly m o b ile. Almost e x a c tly the same percentage was noted in downward m o b ility w itii a d ecrease o f on ly .2 per c e n t. Table 8 i l l u s t r a t e s the career p a ttern s o f th o se sons who en tered the labor fo r c e sometime during the o b serv a tio n p eriod of 1950-1961 but a ft e r A p ril X, 1950* The career p a ttern s show some d iffe r e n c e s when compared w ith th ose who were in th e lab or fo r c e fo r the e n t ir e obser v a tio n period or th e "older" w orkers. The sta tio n a r y group d e c lin e d from 6 7 .9 per cen t t o 57*0 per c e n t. On the oth er hand, an in c r e a se o f over 13 per cen t was noted in th o se who were upwardly m o b ile. A d e c lin e was a ls o noted in downward m o b ility . S lig h t ly over 7 P®r cen t were downwardly m ob ile in t h e ir ca reer betw een th e tim e th ey entered the lab or fo r c e in between 1950 and i 960 and in 1961 when th e in te r view in g was com pleted. C o n tra stin g th e se r e s u lt s w ith th e fin d in g s concerning th e sample a s a tix o le, th e d iffe r e n c e s are la r g e enough to req u ire an ex p la n a tio n . One p o s s i b l e e x p l a n a t i o n o f t h i s i n c r e a s e i n t h e p e r c e n t a g e o f t h e u p w a r d ly m o b i l e i s t h a t t h e s t r u c t u r e o f .A m erica n s o c i e t y i s s u c h t h a t i t i s r a p i d l y b e c o m in g e a s i e r t o r i s e t o a h i g h e r o c c u p a t i o n a l g r o u p . T h i s e x p l a n a t i o n i s c o u n t e r t o o t h e r e v i d e n c e a n d p r e s u m a b ly i s n o t a c o r r e c t o n e , a l t h o u g h c e r t a i n l y a p l a u s i b l e o n e . A s e c o n d a l t e r n a t i v e i s t h a t t h e c a r e e r p a t t e r n s o f t h o s e who f i r s t e n t e r t h e l a b o r f o r c e a r e s u b j e c t t o a g r e a t d e a l o f f l u c t u a t i o n a n d i t i s o n l y l a t e r i n t h e l i f e c y c l e t h a t a s t a b l e o r f i x e d u p w a r d ly m o b i l e p a t t e r n i s e x h i b i t e d . T h i s e x p l a n a t i o n f i t s i n q u i t e w e l l w i t h p r e v i o u s r e s e a r c h r e p o r t s i n w h ic h a g e w a s c o n t r o l l e d a n d i l l u s t r a t e s o n e o f t h e m a jo r p r o b le m s o f o c c u p a t i o n a l m o b i l i t y r e s e a r c h a l l u d e d t o i n a n e a r l i e r c h a p t e r . T h a t i s , t h e t im e a n d a g e o f c o m p a r is o n s m ay b e v i t a l i n t h e s t u d y o f o c c u p a t i o n a l m o b i l i t y , a n d t h i s i s t r u e f o r b o t h c a r e e r and i n t e r g e n e r a t i o n a l m o b i l i t y e x p e r i e n c e s . 89 T a b le 6 - O c c u p a t i o n a l C a r e e r P a t t e r n s * C a r e e r P a t t e r n s N um ber IF S ar S en t S t a t i o n a r y 558 U p w a r d ly M o b ile 181 5SP-g. D o w n w a r d ly M o b i l e 52 6 -3 F l u c t u a t i n g P a t t e r n 31 3-® T o t a l s 822 -----M B O .O I, ♦ I n c l u d e s a l l m a le h e a d s o f h o u s e h o l d s f o r -whom ihEffarnaaEfcEoiL w a s a v a i l a b l e . 4 90 Table 7 - O ccupational Career P a tte rn s: 1950 to 196I* Career P a tte rn Number 1950-1961 P er Cent S ta tio n a r y h73 7 0 .3 Upwardly M obile 128 1 9 .0 Downwardly M obile 6 .1 • F lu c tu a tin g P a tte r n 31 1|.6 T o ta ls 673 1 0 0 .0 •^Includes a l l m ale heads o f h ou seh old s fo r whom in form ation was a v a ila b le fo r th e period o f A p ril 1 , 1950 to June, 1 9 6 1 . 91 T ab le 8 - O ccupational Career P a tte r n s , Inform ation A v a ila b le Only fo r th e P eriod Sometime A fte r A p r il 1 , 1950 t o June, 1961* Career P a tte r n In between 1950 and 1961 Number Per Cent S ta tio n a ry 85 5 7 .0 Upwardly M obile 53 35 -6 Downwardly M obile 11 7 4 T o ta ls ik9 1 0 0 .0 #The flu c t u a tin g p a tte r n was not p o s s ib le fo r th e s e respon dents inasmuch as not enough occu p ation al in fo rm a tio n was a v a ila b le . 92 Table 9 i l l u s t r a t e s th e o ccu p ation al ca reer p a tte rn s of the sample w ith farm ers' sons exclu d ed . In a com parison w ith th e t o t a l sample a n a ly s is , percentage v a r ia tio n s are extrem ely sm a ll, and the percentage o f upward m o b ility was alm ost id e n t ic a l. Our h y p o th e sis concernin g occu p ation al ca reer p a tte rn s was th a t th ere would be more upward than downward m o b ility . Our h yp o th esis was s u b sta n tia te d . Two c o r o lla r y h yp otheses were form u lated; th ey were: ( l ) The in c lu s io n o f farm ers and th e ir sons w i l l not a lt e r th e b a s ic h y p o th e sis, and (2) The in c lu s io n o f r ecen t e n tra n ts in to the labor fo r c e w ill n ot a lt e r th e b a sic h y p o th e sis. The in c lu s io n of farm ers' sons did not a d v e r se ly e f f e c t th e a n a ly s is outcome. On th e oth er hand, when the r e c e n t en tra n ts and th e ir occu p ation al career p a tte rn s were exam ined, some d isc r e p a n c ie s were n oted . A cco rd in g ly , b oth c o r o lla r y h yp oth eses were accep ted . In te r g en er a tio n a l O ccupational M o b ility : F a th ers' Major O ccupation and Sons' 1950 O ccupation The r e la tio n s h ip between th e fath ers* major occu p ation and t h e ir son s' 1950 occu p ation s w ith a l l sons in clu d ed i s shown in T ables 10 and 1 1 . The s t a b i l i t y ind ex o f 1 .3 2 in d ic a te s th a t about one and o n e-th ird tim es the expected number o f sons were in t h e ir fa th e r s ' occu p ation al stratum . The index o f a s s o c ia tio n o f .17* th e Y c o e f f ic ie n t o f .2 2 , and G am m a o f .39 in d ic a te a r e la t iv e l y low r e la tio n s h ip betw een fa th e r s ' major occu p ation and th e sons' 1950 o ccu p a tio n s. The d ata in d ic a te th a t 6 3 .8 per c e n t o f sons who were in the low SES in 1950 had fa th e r s whose major occu p ation was in th a t ca te g o ry . 93 Table 9 “ O ccupational Career P a tte r n s, 1950 to 1961: Farmers' Sons Excluded 1950-1961 Career P a tte rn Number Per Cent S ta tio n a ry i+37 6 6 .5 Upwardly M obile li+6 2 2 .2 Downwardly M obile Lfl 7*1 F lu c tu a tin g 28 I 4. 2 T o t a l s 658 1 0 0 . 0 9k Table 10 - Father's Major Occupation and Son's Occupation, 19502 Intergenerational Mobility S o n 's 1950 O ccupational SES F a th e r 's Major O ccupational SES Low Low M iddle High M iddle High Low 111 50 52 38 Low M iddle 29 J £ 30 32 High Middle 23 23 1 1 29 High 12 12 21 Total 177 125 136 S t a b ilit y Index Index of A ss o c ia tio n Y C o e ffic ie n t Gamma 1 .3 2 .17 .22 • 39 T otal 253 131 108 90 582 95 T able 11 - F a th e r 's Major O ccupation and S on 's O ccupation, 1950: In te r g e n e r a tio n a l M o b ility (P ercen tages) S o n 's 1950 O ccupational SBS F a th e r ' s Major O ccupational SES Low Low M iddle High M iddle H igh Low 6? . 8 2 * 0 .0 3 8 .2 2 6 . u Low M iddle 16 .2 * 3 2 .0 2 2 .1 2 2 .2 H igh Middle 1 3 .0 1 8 .2 * 2*4.3 2 0 .1 H igh 6 .8 9 .6 15.2* 3 1 .3 T otal 1 0 0 .0 1 0 0 .0 1 0 0 .0 1 0 0 .0 T his i s over tw ic e th e percentage o f th o se in the low m iddle and upper SES c a t e g o r ie s , and s lig h t ly under th ree tim es as many a s in th e h ig h - m iddle SES c a te g o r y . These d a ta in d ic a te th a t th e r e was l e a s t out mo b i l i t y anong th e lo w est SES so n s, and m ost out m o b ility among th e h ig h - m iddle SES so n s. The high-m iddle SES sons w h ile having more outward m o b ility had l e s s upward m o b ility than the two low er SES c a te g o r ie s . M o b ility then was not n e c e s s a r ily to t h e ir ad vantage. Of the fou r in ter g e n e ra tio n a l o ccu p ation al m o b ility h yp otheses te s t e d , th ree were found to need reform u lation , and one was v e r if ie d . The v e r if ie d h y p o th esis was a s fo llo w s: A m a jority o f sons w i l l be in occu p ation al c la s s e s other than th e ir f a t h e r s '. O v era ll t h i s was found to be tr u e , and in d iv id u a lly in every SES except th e lo w e s t. An oppo s i t e r e s u lt was found fo r the h y p o th esis th a t sons w ere more l i k e l y to be in t h e ir f a t h e r s ' occu p ation al c la s s than any o th e r . T his was not tru e ex cep t f o r th e low SES. The H ypothesis th at i f in ter g e n e ra tio n a l occu pational m o b ility o ccu rs, i t is m ost l i k e l y to occur betw een adja cen t occu p ation al c la s s e s was r e je c te d fo r th e upper SES b u t was ac cepted fo r th e low er SES. The h y p o th esis th a t th ere would be more up ward than downward m o b ility was accep ted fo r ev ery SES to which the h y p o th esis ap p lied .. An a n a ly s is id e n tic a l to the one d isc u sse d above was ca rr ie d out w ith farm ers' sons excluded. The r e s u l t s , as in d ic a te d in T ables 12 and 1 3 , were s tr ik in g ly sim ila r to th o se obtained f o r th e e n t ir e panel w ith farm ers' sons in clu d ed . A cco rd in g ly , we have accepted the co ro l la r y h y p o th e sis th a t th e farm ers' sons would not a lt e r th e b a s ic hypo th e se s • 97 Table 12 - Father's Major OecmpaitiaeL asd Son’s Occupation, 1950, Farmers' Sons Excluded: Intergeceratioral Mobility S on " e 1950 O c c u p a t i o n a l S3S F a th e r ' s Major O ccu pational SES L ew H ig h L o b K i d d l e M id d le H ig h T otal Low 6 1 26 3S 27 158 Low M iddle 29 M 30 32 131 H igh M iddle 23 23 32 29 107 High 12 12 21 ife 89 T otal 131 iea 121 132 1*85 S t a b ilit y Index Index a sT A r ja .it, ~ b h T C o e f f i c i e n t Gamma 1 .3 2 -17 .2 0 .3 0 98 Table 13 - F a th e r 's Major O ccupation and Son 's O ccupation, 1950, Fanners' Sons Excluded: In te r g en er a tio n a l M o b ility (P ercen ta g es) S on 's 1950 O ccupational SES F a th e r ' s Major Low High O ccupational SES Low M iddle M iddle High Low l — 1 • 1 — 1 25.7 31.1+ 2 0 .5 Low M id d le 22.1 3 9 .6 21+.8 21+.2 H ig h M id d le 17.6 2 2 .8 2 6 .14 2 2 .0 H ig h 9 .2 l l - 9 17.1* 3 3 .5 T o t a l 1 0 0 .0 10 0 .0 1 0 0 .0 1 0 0 .0 99 I n t e r g e n e r a t i o n a l O c c u p a t io n a l M o b i l i t y : F a t h e r ’ s M a jo r O c c u p a t io n a n d S o n 1s I 96I O c c u p a t io n In a com parison o f f a t h e r 's major occu p ation w ith the so n 's 19&1 occu p a tio n , 37*9 Psr c e n t o f th e sons were c l a s s i f i e d a s in terg en era — t io n a lly s t a b le . On th e oth er hand, 15*9 P e r cen t were downwardly m o b ile . Alm ost h a lf o f th e panel male head o f households w ere upwardly m o b ile. This e x te n t o f in terg en era tio n a l upward m o b ility i s in co n tra st to on ly 2 2 .0 per c e n t o f th e son s who had an upwardly m obile career p a tte r n . The r e la tio n s h ip between f a t h e r 's major occu p ation and h is so n 's 1961 occu pation i s shown in T ables 11* and 1 5 . These two t a b le s in clu d e a l l sons and fa th e r s fo r whom d a ta were a v a ila b le . The s t a b ili t y index o f 1.1*5 in d ic a te s th a t s lig h t l y under one and one— h a lf tim es as many sons as expected were in th e sane occu p ation al SES as th e ir fa th e r s . The index o f a s s o c ia tio n was .1 7 , the Y c o e f f ic ie n t was .21*, and Gam m a was c a lc u la te d to be .37* Each of th e in d exes r e f le c t a moderate p o s i t iv e a s s o c ia tio n betw een fa t h e r 's major occu p ation and so n 's 19&1 occu p a tio n . An in t e r e s t in g phenomenon, o f co u r se , i s th a t i f th ese 1961 index sco res a re compared to th o se obtained u sin g 1950 occupations , th e re s u lt s are very s im ila r . The s t a b i l i t y index fo r 1950 occu p ation s was 1 .3 2 compared to an ind ex sco re o f 1.1*5 in 19&L. The index o f a s s o c ia t io n o f .17 was id e n t ic a l fo r b oth y e a r s . The Y c o e f f ic ie n t in creased from .20 in 1950 to .21* in 1 9 6 1 . In b oth a n a ly s e s, the r e la t io n s h ip , no m atter which ind ex i s preferred , i s a m oderate one and the r e s u lts are h ig h ly comparable no m atter which tim e period i s u sed . In comparing th e same fa th e r s and sons fo r two d if fe r e n t p o in ts in tim e , another in t e r e s t in g fe a tu r e i s th a t th e sons' co n cen tra tio n in the 100 Table 1I 4 . - Father's Major Occupation and Son's Occupation, I96I: Intergenerational Mobility S on 's 1961 O ccupational SES F a th e r's Major O ccupational SES Low Low M iddle High M iddle High Tota] Low 122 70 73 71 336 Low M iddle 28 2±I m 51 166 H igh Middle 17 3i| b k 55 150 High 11 17 27 11 126 Total 178 l6i+ 188 2 1 + 8 778 S t a b ilit y Index o f Y Index A sso c ia tio n C o e ffic ie n t G am m a 1 .4 5 .17 .22+ .37 101 Table 15 - F a th e r 's Major O ccupation and Son's O ccupation, 1961: In terg en era tio n a l M o b ility (P ercen tages) F a th e r's Major O ccupational SES Son 's 1961 O ccupational SES Low Low M iddle High M iddle High Low 6 8 ^ . 1+2.7 38 .8 2 8 .6 Low M iddle 1 5 .7 26 .2 23.1+ 2 0 .6 High M iddle 9 .6 20.7 2 2 .2 High 6 .2 1 0 4 114.1+ 2 8 .6 T otal 1 0 0 .0 100.0 1 0 0 .0 1 0 0 .0 102 lower SES group in 1950 was much g r ea ter th an th e rem aining SES l e v e l s ; in 1961 t h is co n c en tr a tio n had in crea sed for the low er SES group "but decreased fo r th e oth er th ree g ro u p s. Looking a t th e d a ta in another manner (s e e Table 1$) we fin d th a t in ev ery category ex cep t in the h ig h e s t, more sons h a d .th e ir o r ig in s in the low SES than any o th e r . T his would have held tru e in th e h ig h occur- p a tio n a l SES a ls o ex cep t th a t th e p ercen tages of sons in t h i s c la s s who had fa th e r s from th e h igh and low SES stratum were eq u a l. When an a n a ly s is o f fa t h e r 's major occu p ation and so n 's 1961 occu p a tio n was c a rr ie d out w ith farm ers' sons exclu d ed , a l l of th e in d exes were low er than when farm ers' sons were in clu d ed . As in d ic a te d in Ihbles 16 and 1 7 , alth ough th e ind exes were lo w e r, th ey were not in o r d in a te ly so . The d iffe r e n c e s a re s l i g h t which in d ic a te s th e r e la t iv e lack o f in flu e n c e th a t farm ers and th e ir son s have on th e o v e r a ll occu p ation al m o b ility p ic tu r e , a t l e a s t fo r t h i s sam ple. A lso o f in t e r e s t i s the la ck o f very la r g e changes in ind ex sco r e s whether 1950 or 1961 occupa tio n s a re used a s a b a s is fo r com parisons. The r e s u lt s o f the t e s t s o f hyp otheses are th e same a s fo r the 1950 occu p ation s and w i l l be summarized in the con clu d in g s e c tio n of th is chapter. F a th e r 's Major O ccupation and S o n 's O ccupational Career P a tte rn s The so n 's occu p ation al ca reer p a tte rn s as th ey are r e la te d to th e ir f a t h e r 's major o ccu p a tio n a l SES are shown in T ables 18 and 19* Minor fLuo- tu a tio n s are many but no major d e v ia tio n s are found. The d ata in d ic a te th a t some sons who had low er SES fa th e r s move up b u t th en move back down. This i s illu s t r a t e d by th e per cen t o f th e sons who were downwardly Table 16 - F a th e r 's Major O ccupation and Son 's O ccupation, 19^1, Farm ers' Sons Excluded: In terg en era tio n a l M o b ility Son 's 1961 O ccupational SES F a th e r 's Major Low High O ccupational SES Low M iddle M iddle High Total Low I k Id 50 53 218 Low M iddle 28 i& Mi 51 166 H igh Middle 17 32* h i 55 l2i9 High 11 17 27 2 0 125 T otal 130 135 l 6i+ 229 658 S t a b ilit y Index o f Index A ss o c ia tio n Y C o e ffic ie n t G am m a 10k Table 17 — F a th e r 's Major O ccupation awd S on 's O ccupation, 19^1, Farm ers' Sons Excluded: In te r g en er a tio n a l M o b ility (P ercen ta g es) S o n 's 1961 O ccupational SES F a th e r ' s Major Low High O ccu pational SES Low Middle M iddle High Low 56.9 30.1+ 3 0 .5 2 3 .I Low M iddle 21 .5 3 1 .8 2 6 .8 2 2 .3 H igh M iddle 13.1 2 5 .2 2 6 .2 2I+.0 High 8 .5 1 2 .6 1 6 .5 3 0 .6 T o t a l 1 0 0 . 0 1 0 0 . 0 1 0 0 . 0 1 0 0 . 0 105 Table 18 — Father's Major Occupation and Son’s Occupational Career Pattern: Intergenerational Mobility* f a t h e r 's Major O ccupation Son's Career P a tte r n T otal S ta tio n a r y Upwardly M obile Downwardly M ob ile F lu ctu a tin g*^ Law 227 73 23 13 309 Law M iddle 102 ho 15 9 152 W fc&r M iddia 97 33 8 5 129 High 97 21 h 3 2i+ T otal 523 167 50 30 702 • ¥ f lu c t u a t e s from same p rev io u s ta b le s a s a r e s u lt o f no in fo r m ation a v a ila M e fo r th e f a t h e r . w i i c l i d e a only son s fo r whom in fo rm a tio n was a v a ila b le through, the p erio d o f 1950-1961* Sons who en tered the la b o r fo r c e a f t e r A p ril 1 , 19 5 Q, a re exclu d ed from t h i s ca teg o ry on th e b a s is o f i n s u f f ic ie n t in - f nrii« ti nr. io 6 Table 19 * * F a th e r's Major O ccupation and Son's O ccupational Career P a ttern : In te r g en er a tio n a l M o b ility (P ercen tages) S on 's Career P attern F a th er' s Major Upwardly Downwardly F lu ctu a - O ccupation S ta tio n a ry M obile Mobile tin g Low 43*4 2*3-7 46 .0 2 + 3.3 Low M iddle 19 *5 2 3 .9 30.0 30.0 High M iddle 1 8 .6 1 9 .8 16.0 16.7 High 1 8 .6 1 2 .6 8.0 10,0 T otal 100.0 1 0 0 .0 100.0 100.0 107 m obile had low SES f a t h e r s . The on ly way th a t th ey could be downwardly m obile i s to have r is e n over t h e ir f a t h e r 's SES and then f a l l e n back. The converse h o ld s true for th e 1 2 .6 per cen t upwardly m obile son s who had fa th e r s in upper SES c a te g o r y . T his means th a t they sta r te d lower than th e ir fa th e r s o c cu p a tio n a lly speaking but th en d id r is e t o the upper SES ca te g o ry . The r e s u lt s o f t h is a n a ly s is , however, in d ic a te th a t f a t h e r 's major occu p ation i s not a very u s e fu l p r e d ic to r o f th e ir s o n 's occu p ation al career p a tte r n s. F a th e r 's major occu p ation may, of c o u r se , have some u t i l i t y fo r p r e d ic tin g th e u ltim a te major occu p ation al SES o f th e son . V . Summary and C onclusions This chapter had d isc u sse d some of th e m eth od ological and s t a t i s t i c a l problems in volved in determ ining th e e x te n t o f career and in te r g en era tio n a l m o b ility . In a d d itio n , th e v e r t ic a l occu p ation al m o b ility experien ce o f the members o f th e panel was d e scr ib e d . M ethodological co n sid e ra tio n s p rio r to s t a t i s t i c a l measurement con sid ered were th e farmer problem , l i f e - c y c l e and ca reer h is t o r ie s and some o f t h e ir r e la te d problem s. F in a lly , th e problem s a tten d a n t w ith c a te g o r iz a tio n and c a te g o r iz a tio n c r o s s - c l a s s if ic a t io n w ere d isc u sse d . D ecisio n s made concerning each o f th e problems were made e x p l i c i t . To summarize our d e c is io n s : (1 ) I t was decided to t e s t the assum ption th a t farm ers and t h e ir sons unduly e f f e c t d ie a n a ly sis of in te r and in t r a - g en era tio n a l occu p ation al m o b ility . As a r e s u lt o f t e s t in g our c o r o l la r y ly p o th e se s in t h is reg a rd , i t appeared un necessary t o ex clu d e fa r mers' sons from fu rth er a n a ly s is and h en ceforth th ey are included in a l l o f the a n a ly ses th a t fo llo w in t h is r e p o r t. (2 ) No age c o n tr o ls were 108 made fo r the v e r t ic a l m o b ility a n a ly se s, although th e occu p ation al career p a tte rn data made p o s s ib le a com parison across tim e which acted as a rough a g e -c o n tr o l. Our co n clu sio n was th a t p o in t in time c o n tr o ls are not extrem ely c ru cia l in an a n a ly s is o f v e r t ic a l m o b ility . In a l l o f the a n a ly ses th a t fo llo w , no a g e -c o n tr o ls are made. (3 ) W e co lla p se d th e , Duncan SES c a te g o r ie s in t o fou r b a sic c a te g o r ie s ; no t e s t was made to determ ine i f t h is was a more d e sir a b le procedure than some o th e r . The major j u s t i f i c a t i o n fo r th e c a te g o r ie s i s th a t th ey are based upon em p ir ic a l breaks in th e c l a s s i f i c a t i o n o f a l l heads o f households included in the p a n e l, (4) As a r e s u lt o f th e c o lla p s in g , th e r e s u ltin g groups should be thought of as s o c ia l c a te g o r ie s rath er th an r e a l groups. The s t a t i s t i c a l m easures u t iliz e d in t h is research were describ ed and a d e c is io n was made to in clu d e the fo llo w in g fou r m easures: ( l ) Sta b i l i t y Index, (2 ) Index o f A ss o c ia tio n , (3 ) Y C o e ffic ie n t, and (4) Gamma. The occu pation al m o b ility exp erien ce o f the son s in t h i s sample i s very sim ila r to th a t reported fo r sons,from a v a r ie ty o f o th er areas and 45 over v a rio u s tim e p erio d s by oth er r e se a r c h e r s. There is a very h igh r e la tio n s h ip between th e occu pation al le v e l th a t sons are in a t one period o f tim e and to th e ir occu p ation al le v e l a t a fu tu re d a t e . The s t a b i l i t y index in d ica ted th a t roughly th ree tim es th e exp ected number remained in th e ir r e s p e c tiv e occu p ation al c a te g o r ie s over an e le v e n year 45 A lthough th e m o b ility exp erien ce o f t h is sample o f heads of house h old s is very sim ila r to th at reported by other resea rch ers from a v a riety o f other areas and a t v a rio u s tim e p e r io d s, only one other rep o rt th a t we are aware o f s tr e s s e s the la r g e amount o f downward m o b ility ex p eri e n c e s. See L ip se t and B endix, op . c i t . , p . 23* 109 tim e p e r io d . The ind ex o f a s s o c ia t io n , T c o e f f i c i e n t , and Gamma s t a t i s t i c s in d ic a te d a h ig h r e la tio n s h ip betw een o ccu p ation al c a te g o r ie s over the e le v e n year p e r io d . These r e la t io n s h ip s , w ith r e l a t i v e l y minor in dex ch an ges, were th e same f o r an a n a ly s is Which excluded fa rm ers’ so n s. Over two— th ir d s o f th e sample was found t o have s ta tio n a r y career p a tte rn s w hich corresp onds q u ite c lo s e ly t o th e a n a ly s is w hich took in to c o n sid e r a tio n o ccu p a tio n s o n ly a t th e two d a te s o f 1950 and 1961. Twenty- two per cen t were found to be upwardly m o b ile , and 3*8 per c en t had a flu c tu a tin g career p a tte r n . The in d ic a tio n s a r e th a t upward m o b ility i s th e predom inant c a re e r p a tte r n a f t e r sta tio n a r y career p a tte r n s. How e v e r , th e d a ta from th e e le v e n y e a r com parison p eriod show th a t upward and downward m o b ility a r e d i f f e r e n t i a l l y d is tr ib u te d by occu p a tio n a l SES. The upward m o b ility fo r son s in th e h ig h m iddle SES group was 11.1+ per c e n t w h ile II4..3 per c en t were downwardly m o b ile . This i s th e on ly SES group in which more downward than upward m o b ility was fou n d . For exam ple, 37*9 Par c e n t o f th e lo w est SES were upwardly m ob ile a s opposed to no p o s s ib le downward m o b ilit y . Over 31 per c e n t o f th e low^-middle SES stratum was upwardly m ob ile whereas on ly 5*8 per c en t were downwardly m o b ile. Of c o u r se , no upward movement was p o s s ib le in the h ig h e s t SES ca te g o ry , downward movement was noted in 6 per c e n t of th e c a s e s . The in d ic a tio n s are th a t upward m o b ility i s much more d i f f i c u l t f o r th ose who are approaching th e to p o f the la d d e r . Even s o , fo r th o se who rea ch i t , i t appears th a t downward m o b ility i s r e la t iv e l y r a r e . N e v e r th e le ss, th e predominant p a tte r n in ev ery SES ca teg o ry i s fo r sta tio n a r y career p a tte rn s to be dom inant. S ta tio n a r y ca reer p a tte r n s are h ig h er in th e upper-m iddle and h ig h SES. 110 In te r g e n e r a tio n a l m o b ility was found t o be more p r e v a len t tban career m o b ility . A ccording to th e s t a b i l i t y index about one and h a lf tim es th e exp ected number o f sons were in th e same c a teg o ry a s th e ir f a t h e r ’ s major o ccu p a tio n . The index o f a s s o c ia t io n , Y c o e f f i c i e n t , and Gamma s t a t i s t i c s were o f medium str e n g th . A ll sons in 1950 excep t th o se in th e high. SES ca teg o ry were more li k e l y t o have had fa th e r s in the low, SES stratum than any o th e r . Those who w ere in th e h ig h SES stratum were more li k e l y to have had fa th e r s who were in th e h igh s tr a tum, b u t th e n ext most lik e lih o o d was from the low SES. When farm ers’ sons were excluded from a n a ly s is , the r e la tio n s h ip s remained e s s e n t ia ll y as, o u tlin e d above. In te r g e n e r a tio n a l m o b ility for th e same sons in l$ 6l was very sim i la r t o th a t o f the 1950 e x p e r ie n c e . The major— changes took p la ce in th e lo w e st c a te g o r y . The e v id en ce su g g ests th a t some sons who ro se in SES over t h e i r fa th e r s in 1950 had f a l l e n back to a low er SES or SES of o r ig in by 1 9 6 1 . The p ercen tage o f sons who were in th e low SES and had low SES fa th e r s in creased from 6 3 .8 per cen t in 1950 to 6 8 .5 per cen t in 1 9 6 1 . The r e la t iv e in c r e a se was s l i g h t l y g r e a te r when farm ers' son s were exclu ded from the a n a ly s is w ith a p ercentage o f 5 l* l in 1950 and 5 6 ,9 in 1961* The in d ic a tio n s seem to be th a t when u t i l i z i n g th e same p o p u la tio n , th e d iffe r e n c e s are not to o g rea t in s o fa r as in terg en era t io n a l m o b ility i s concerned whether th e a n a ly s is d ata i s 1950 or 1 9 6 1 . A s im ila r c o n c lu sio n v a s reached when a n a ly s is was ca rried o u t witia. farm ers' sons exclu d ed . In so fa r a s sons' career p a tte r n i s concerned, sons w ith a l l ca reer p a tte r n s had th e h ig h e s t p ro p o rtio n o f fa th e r s whose major occu p ation al Ill l e v e l w a s t h e lo w S E S . T h i s i s p a r t i c u l a r l y i n t e r e s t i n g w hen t h e d ow n w a r d ly m o b i l e h a d f a t h e r s who w e r e i n t h e lo w SES c a t e g o r y . T h is m e a n s t h a t t h e y h a d r i s e n o v e r t h e i r f a t h e r s 1 SES s t r a t u m , b u t t h e n h a d f a l l e n b a c k t o t h e l o w e s t c a t e g o r y . M o s t s o n s , w h a t e v e r t h e i r c a r e e r p a t t e r n , h a d f a t h e r s w ho w e r e i n t h e l o w e s t tw o SES c a t e g o r i e s . E v e n s o , o v e r t h r e e - f o u r t h s o f t h o s e w h o w e r e d o w n w a r d ly m o b i l e a n d t h o s e w h o h a d f l u c t u a t i n g c a r e e r p a t t e r n s h a d f a t h e r s w ho w e r e i n t h e l o w e s t tw o SES s t r a t u m . I n c o n c l u s i o n o f t h i s c h a p t e r , w e h a v e o b s e r v e d t h a t t h e r e h a s b e e n a c e r t a i n a m o u n t o f v e r t i c a l m o b i l i t y e x p e r i e n c e d b y t h e m o n b e r s o f t h i s s a m p l e . T h e r e l a t i v e a m o u n t i s n o t a s h i g h a s e x p e c t e d a n d w e h a v e n o t e d t h a t u p w a rd a n d d ow n w ard m o b i l i t y a r e d i f f e r e n t i a l l y d i s t r i b u t e d b y S E S . F u r t h e r m o r e , t h e f l u i d i t y a p p e a r s t o b e s i g n i f i c a n t l y g r e a t e r i n t h e tw o m i d d l e SES c a t e g o r i e s w h e n c o m p a r e d t o t h e h i g h e s t a n d l o w e s t c a t e g o r i e s . C H A P T E R V RESIDENTIAL MOBILITY EXPERIENCES* I . In tro d u ctio n G e n e r a liz a tio n s concernin g m etro p o lita n residexriaasl ’ "rarT have em phasized e ith e r p r o sp e c tiv e or r e tr o s p e c tiv e m oves- j m ation concernin g p r o sp e ctiv e m o b ility in th e U n ited S t a te s mss o b t a i n e d from lim ite d s u r v e y s w h i l e th e U . S . Bureau aaf tabs h a s p r o v i d e d t h e major sou rces o f d ata concernin g r e t r e s p s c t ii e 2 d e n t i a l c h a n g e s . . -fl- ^ S u b sta n tia l p a rts o f t h i s chapter have b een drawn. f i m irroc-Li R e s e a r c h Laboratory N o tes, Department o f S o c io lo g y , t h e r n C a lifo r n ia , and from th e fo llo w in g paper w r itte n iter a t t h e P a c if ic S o c io lo g ic a l A s s o c ia tio n M e e t i n g s , S a lt l a f c e S l a v , l / s i A p r i l , 1965: M aurice D. Van A r sd o l, J r . and G e o r g e s Saltragb, s p e c t i v e and P r o sp e c tiv e M etrop olitan R e s id e n tia l M obaUijy-* ^ S ee, f o r exam ple, Edgar W. B u tle r , Georges Sabagh, s s d l i V a n A r sd o l, J r . , "Demographic and S o c ia l P sy c h o lo g ic a l I te c tc r s 5m d e n t i a l M o b ility ," S o cio lo g y and S o c ia l R esearch , J4 B (J a n se sy , 2 9 ^ # , p p . 139-lSU ; Sidney G o ld ste in , P a tte rn s o f M o b ility , 15QLP-3L9jj^ N o r r i s t o w n Study (P h ila d e lp h ia : U n iv e r sity o f Pgnnsylvarraa F t e s s , E u g e n e L itv a k , "Geographic M o b ility and Extended Fam ily _____ c a n S o c io lo g ic a l R eview . 25 (Ju n e, 19&1) , PP* 385-39U ; Bates- ISgr F a m i l i e s Move (New York: The F ree P r e ss o f G le n c o e ,. 1955$; sag H a s A H . W h it n e y a n d C harles M . G rigg, " P attern s o f M o b ility A m on g m . F a m ilie s o f C o lle g e S tu d en ts," American S o c io lo g ic a l R eview , 25 h e r , 1958) , PP ■ 6l|3~652. 2 _ S ee Henry Shyrock, J r . , P o p u la tio n M o b ility W ithin taas aj S ta te s (Community and Fam ily Study C en ter, C hicago: LfcrnversiBr Chicago P r e s s , 196lj.) , fo r d e s c r ip tio n s o f r e tr o s p e c tiv e conducted by th e U.S. Bureau o f the Census and o th er U . £ - Faesra] A g e n c ies. 1X 3 P r o sp e ctiv e m o b ility stu d ie s norm ally c o n s is t o f base p o p u la tio n s d efin ed as area r e s id e n ts a t th e beginn ing o f an o b serv a tio n period and r a te s r e fe r to movers le a v in g housing u n its o f r esid e n c e sometime during th e o b serv a tio n p erio d . The e f f e c t s of base p o p u la tio n m o r ta lity can be c o n tr o lle d , and e f f e c t s of ch o ice and p la n s on subsequent m o b ility can 3 be determ ined. R etro sp ectiv e s tu d ie s fe a tu r e base p o p u la tio n s norm ally d efin ed a t th e end o f an o b serv a tio n p e r io d , m o b ility r a te s r e fe r to p erson s en terin g housing u n it s , and e f f e c t s o f m o r ta lity upon r a te s are d i f f i c u l t to c o n tr o l. P r o sp e ctiv e and r e tr o s p e c tiv e m o b ility , however, share common elem en ts. Small segm ents o f urban p op u lation s appear to c o n tr ib u te to h igh m o b ility r a te s through rep eated moves and p ro sp ectiv e m o b ility r a te l e v e l s are p a r t ia lly a fu n c tio n o f th e number o f p a st m oves.^ In r e tr o s p e c tiv e s tu d ie s , out-m oving and inr-moving b eh avioral sequences are o fte n unknown, and r e tr o s p e c tiv e s tu d ie s tend to be lim ite d to in cid en ce o b se rv a tio n s. W hile th e r e tr o sp e c tiv e an! p r o sp e ctiv e mobi l i t y o f in d iv id u a ls can be lin k ed through tim e, v ia contin uous popula t io n reg isters," * th e r e la t in g o f a tt itu d in a l v a r ia b le s t o fu tu r e moves can b e s t be accom plished through survey proced ures. • ^Ibid. , pp. 8-60 ^Sidney G o ld ste in , '’Repeated M igration as a F actor in High Mobi l i t y R ates," American S o c io lo g ic a l R eview , 19 (O ctober, 1 9 5 6 ), PP* 536- 5i£.* 5 See Sidney G o ld ste in , "The E xtent o f Repeated M igration: An A n a ly sis Based on the Danism P o p u la tio n R eg istra r," Journal o f the American S t a t i s t i c a l A s s o c ia tio n . 59 (December, I 96Z 1 ) , pp. 1121-1132, fo r d is c u s sio n and summaries o f th e use o f continuous p o p u la tio n r e g is tr a r s as accou ntin g system s in stu d ie s of r e s id e n t ia l m o b ility . Hi* As in d ica ted p r e v io u sly , survey data and a lo n g itu d in a l d esig n were u t iliz e d in t h i s study to in te g r a te r e tr o s p e c tiv e moves, prospec t iv e m o b ility p lan s and c h o ic e s , and subsequent observed m o b ility . Re tr o s p e c tiv e m o b ility i s measured by behavior over a one year period p rio r to i n i t i a l in terv iew c o n ta c t, and p ro sp ectiv e m o b ility is des crib ed i n t e r n s o f planned and ch o ice m oves, and subsequently observed moves over one y e a r . In th e rem aining s e c tio n s o f t h i s ch a p ter, p ro sp ectiv e and r e tr o sp e c tiv e r e s id e n t ia l m o b ility c r it e r io n measures w ill be d iscu ssed and the h o r iz o n ta l m o b ility ex p erien ces o f th e members o f th e r e s id e n t ia l m o b ility pan el w ill be d e scr ib e d . I I . R e tro sp e c tiv e R e sid e n tia l M o b ility R e tro sp ectiv e r e s id e n t ia l m o b ility based on th e exp erien ce o f the head o f th e household was u t iliz e d in t h i s resea rch as a c r it e r io n o f p a st m oves. Almost the e n tir e p o p u la tio n in r esid e n c e a t a s p e c ifie d tim e has liv e d elsew here a t sometime during t h e ir lif e t im e s .^ This means th a t m ost o f th e p o p u la tio n was a t one tim e or another r etro sp e c t iv e m overs. How fa r back in tim e or th e ^period o f m o b ilit y ,” o f 7 c o u r se , in flu e n c e s who i s c l a s s i f i e d a s a mover or nonmover. The fu r th er back in tim e the a n a ly sis c o n s id e r s , the high er i s th e m o b ility E arl E . Taeuber, ”D u ration -of-R esid en ce A n a ly sis o f In tern a l H ig r a tio n in th e U nited S ta te s ," The Milbank Memorial Fund Q u arterly, 39 (January, 1961) , pp. 1 1 6-131. Shryock, op. c i t . . p . 1 2 . 115 r a t e . A r e tr o s p e c tiv e a n a ly s is o f r e s id e n t ia l m o b ility , no m atter what th e tim e p erio d s co n sid e re d , r e s u lt s in a minimum o f two c l a s s e s , movers and nonmovers. In a d d itio n , fu r th e r s p e c if ic a t io n may be made a s to the d is ta n c e o f th e move. In t h i s regard the component o f movers may be dichotom ized in to in tr a and in ter m e tr o p o lita n e lem en ts, or l o c a l and lo n g -d is ta n c e r e s id e n t ia l m o b ility . F ig u re 2 in Chapter I illu s t r a t e d th e p o s s ib le a lte r n a tiv e c la s s e s o f r e t r o s p e c t iv e m overs. L o ca l movers f o r our purposes are d escrib ed a s p erson s who liv e d in a t l e a s t two d if f e r e n t h ou ses sometime during th e o b serv a tio n y ea r from J u n e, i 960 t o June, 1 9 6 1 ; however, both h ou sin g u n it s were lo c a te d w ith in th e Los A n geles Standard M etro p o lita n S t a t i s t i c a l A rea. A second a lte r n a tiv e was fo r a p erson to have liv e d in a d if f e r e n t house o u tsid e o f th e Los A n geles SMS* during th e year in w hich c a se th e move was made in to th e L os A ngeles m e tr o p o lita n area from o u tsid e i t s bou n d aries; moves of 8 t h i s type were d esig n a ted as lo n g -d is ta n c e moves (m ig r a tio n ). The th ir d c l a s s i f i c a t i o n , o f c o u r se , are th e nonmovers, or th o se person s who remained in th e . same housing u n it throughout th e y e a r -lo n g obser v a tio n p e r io d . Of a l l th o se who a c tu a lly moved during th e one y ea r p r io r to the in te r v ie w , 82 per cen t made th e ir move w ith in the Los A n geles metropo l i t a n a r ea and were d esig n a ted a s lo c a l m overs. E ig h teen p er c en t o f th e heads moved in to Los A ngeles from o u tsid e o f th e tw o-coun ty m etro- 8 P erson s who moved from w ith in th e L os'A n geles area t o an outside community, o f co u r se , are n ot in clu d ed in our sam ple. 1 1 6 p o lit a n area and were c la s s ifie d , a s lo n g -d ista n c e m overs. The in t e r r e la t io n s h ip o f - r e tr o s p e c tiv e and lo n g -d ista n c e moves w i l l be d escrib ed in a l a t e r s e c tio n o f t h i s c h a p ter. I I I . P r o sp e ctiv e P lanned. C h oice, and Observed R e sid e n tia l M o b ility P rev io u s p r o sp e c tiv e r e s id e n t ia l m o b ility resea rch has been con cerned w ith sev e r a l d if f e r e n t c r it e r io n m easu res, in c lu d in g ch o ic e a s Q -10 w e ll a s planned m o b ility . L e s lie amd R ich ard son ,y R o s s i, and more r e c e n t ly , B u tle r , Sabagh, and ¥an A r s d o l h a v e used moving in te n tio n s as a m easure o f exp ected m o b ility . Another dim ension o f m o b ility ex p e c ta tio n s i s c h o ic e concerning a fu tu r e move. A th ir d c r it e r io n — which i s th e m ost c e n tr a l to th e p resen t r esea rch - i s observed m o b ility subsequent t o th e r ep o rtin g o f c h o ic e and p la n s . Measurement o f th e th ir d p r o sp e c tiv e c r it e r io n , w hich lias been u n a v a ila b le in most p reviou s s t u d ie s , was made p o s s ib le in t h i s resea rch by ob servin g h ou sin g u n it m o b ility fo r a one y ear period o f t i a e . In order to determ ine th e ir m utual e f f e c t s , m o b ility p la n s , c h o ic e , and behavior were in t e r r e la t e d . 9 G erald R. L e s lie and Arthur M. R ichardson, " L ife -C y c le , C areer, a id th e D e c isio n to Move," American S o c io lo g ic a l R eview . 26 (December, 1961), pp. 89V 902. 10 P e te r H. R o s s i, Why F a m ilie s Move (G len co e, I l l i n o i s : The Free P r e s s , 1 9 5 5 )• 11 B u t le r , Sabagh, and Van A r sd o l, l o c . c i t . 117 The comparison o f ch o ic e and p lan s does not imply a^trime sequence o f ch o ice and p lan s in the moving p r o c e ss, nor are in d iv id u a ls n eces s a r ily in agreement on t h e ir m o b ility ch o ice and p la n s. R e sid e n tia l moves or s t a b i l i t y may r e s u lt from fa c to r s which are beyond th e a b i l i t y o f th e fa m ily to c o n tr o l. For "autonomous1 1 f a m ilie s , p lan s to move from or to sta y a t a p a r tic u la r p la ce o f resid en ce may flo w from a . p r io r i co n scio u s c h o ic e s concerning p referred p la c e s o f r e s id e n c e . On the oth er hand, ch o ice may be o f lim ite d valu e in determ ining a c tio n to the e x te n t th a t fa m ilie s la ck r e so u r c e s, are unaware o f lo c a tio n a l o p p o r tu n itie s, or where d e sire d kin ds o f resid en ce are not a v a ila b le on th e hou sin g m arket. To d is tin g u is h between c h o ic e s and plans and to in d ic a te t h e ir in te r r e la tio n s w ith actu al observed m o b ility , d a ta were obtained from our panel concerning p lan s to move in f i v e y ea rs and in one -year, a s w e ll as moving ch o ice p rio r to behavior during th e I 96I - I 962 observa tio n p erio d . These c r it e r io n m easures were dichotom ized a t c u ttin g p o in ts which most d if fe r e n t ia te d subsequent movers and nonmovers. The a n a ly ses in d ic a te s th e e x te n t to which th e in te r r e la tio n s assumed between th ese ty p es o f m easures in p reviou s s tu d ie s are j u s t if ie d fo r th e L os A ngeles p a n e l, and serve to d e lim it ty p es of movers and sta y ers based on c h o ic e , p la n s, and behavior in d ic e s . P lans and Choice R elated t o Observed M o b ility The one year observed r e s id e n tia l m o b ility c r it e r io n - which was taken a s th e most s ig n if ic a n t fo r t h is resea rch - was r e la te d to the p a n e l's f i v e and one year m o b ility plans and c h o ic e . P reviou s resea rch su g g ests th a t m easures o f plan ned, c h o ic e , and observed m o b ility are a l l p o s it iv e ly a s s o c ia te d . In th e absence o f p rev io u s sim ultaneous em p irical d a ta on a l l o f th ese m easures, no a p r io r i assum ptions were made concerning th e r e la t iv e c o n tr ib u tio n o f f i v e y ear and one year plan s c h o ic e to observed m o b ility r a t e s . I t was th erefo re n eces sary to examine the em p irical r e la t io n s of th e m easures in order to s e l e c t , in a d d itio n to th e observed m o b ility c r it e r io n , a tt itu d in a l m easures o f m o b ility . This s e le c t io n was to be based on th e r e la t iv e independence o f th e m easures. The in d exes o f moving p la n s, c h o ic e s , and subsequent behavior were th erefo re compared and cro ss c l a s s i f i e d . M arginal p ercen tages o f movers fo r respondents varyin g in f iv e and one year p la n s and ch o ice were used to co n stru ct a p a tte r n of expected r e la t io n s o f th ese th ree m easures w ith th e observed m o b ility c r it e r io n . T his p a tte rn was th en te s te d by record in g d iffe r e n c e s in observed mobi l i t y r a te s f o r com binations o f resp on ses on th e p la n s and ch o ice mea— . su r e s. Table 20 summarizes, fo r th e r e s id e n t ia l m o b ility p a n el, th e in t e r r e la t io n s o f f i v e and one year moving p lan s and ch o ice w ith subsequent behavior f o r th e 957 respondents fo r whan d ata were a v a ila b le on each m easure. The d is tr ib u tio n o f p ercen ta g es, which i s provided fo r a l l com binations o f th e c r i t e r i a , in d ic a te s th a t th e exp ected p o s it iv e re la tio n s h ip was obtained fo r each com bination. The ta b le shows th a t c e r ta in com binations o f p la n s, c h o ic e and behavior a re observed in fr e q u en tly . One o f th e se i s an i l l o g i c a l com bination — respondents who 119 planned to s ta y in the p resen t d w ellin g u n it fo r f iv e y e a rs but a ls o planned to move in one year ( l . l j per c e n t ) . Other in freq u en t but common com binations are planning to sta y fo r f i v e years b u t carryin g out a move in one year (3*7 per c e n t); planning t o move in one year but choosing t o sta y (5*3 per c e n t); choosing to stay fo r one year but com pleting a subsequent move in one year (6 .3 per c e n t); planning to sta y fo r one year but com pleting a move in th a t tim e (7*5 per c e n t); and planning to sta y fo r f iv e y ea rs b u t choosing to move (7*9 per c e n t). C ertain push and p u ll fa c to r s in r e s id e n tia l m o b ility a s w e ll as fa c to r s impending or f a c i l i t a t i n g moves ap p aren tly b rin g about th e se p a r tic u la r com binations o f ex p ecta tio n s and b eh a v io r. Table 20 alBO shows the observed r e s id e n tia l m ob ility i s not equally a sso cia ted w ith the exp ectation m easures. For th e to ta l p an el, the observed 1961-1962 r e s id e n tia l m o b ility rate was 2 2 .9 PQ r c e n t, but the r a te .v a r ie s from 51*1 per cent for planned one year movers to 1 0 .7 per cen t for planned one year sta y e r s. M ob ility ra tes fo r choice movers and stayers were 37*2 and 11.3 per c en t, r e sp e ctiv e ly ; and th ese r a te s ranged from 35*8 to 7*7 per cen t for the planned fiv e year movers and sta y e rs. While the h ig h est observed m ob ility ra te was obtained fo r the planned one year movers and the low est rate for the planned f iv e year sta y e r s, the absolute percentage d iffe r e n c e s in r a te s w ith in each measure was g r e a te st for th e one year plan (i^O.i; per c e n t ) , follow ed by fiv e year plan (2.7*1 per c e n t), and by choice (25*9 per c e n t). Table 20 - In te r r e la tio n s o f F ive Year Plan* One Year P lan , CJhoice and Observed M o b ility , T otal Panel Measure One year plan P©re§ntage§ of pansl# Choice 1 ~t 1 —r ■ ' T i r r ~i t — 1 1 1 ~r— T ~ ,r* t ~ ‘ g — Observed M obility 1 m 1 II 1 1 i't, 1 a;si 1 1 1 1 1 u rn M obility rate for subclass (per cent) Stay Move Stay Move Stay Move Stay 1*5.8 1 . 1 * 39*3 7 .9 1 + 3 .6 3 .7 7*7 Five year plan Move 2l}.8 2 8 .0 1 7 .2 35-6 33.8 1 8 .9 35 .8 Stay 51.2 19.3 6 3 .0 7 -5 1 0 .7 One year plan Move 5 .3 21+.2 il+*l+ 15.1 51.1 Stay 5 0 .2 6 .3 1 1 .3 Choice Move 27.3 1 6 .2 37-3 N = * 957 120 121 I n t e r r e l a t i o n s h i p o f P r o s p e c t i v e M o b i l i t y C r i t e r i o n M e a s u r e s T a b l e 2 1 s u m m a r iz e s t h e i n t e r r e l a t i o n s o f t h e c r i t e r i o n m e a s u r e f o r P h i a n d P h i / P h i M aximum c o e f f i c i e n t s o f c o r r e l a t i o n . T he t a b l e sh o w s t h a t t h e m o s t h i g h l y c o r r e l a t e d m e a s u r e i s t h e o n e y e a r p l a n , f o l l o w e d b y t h e f i v e y e a r p l a n , c h o i c e , a n d o n e y e a r m o v in g b e h a v i o r , i n t h a t o r d e r . T a b l e 21 a l s o s h o w s t h a t o n e an d f i v e y e a r p l a n s a r e t h e m o s t c l o s e l y a s s o c i a t e d o f t h e c r i t e r i o n m e a s u r e s , f o l l o w e d b y f i v e y e a r p l a n a n d o n e y e a r p l a n w i t h c h o i c e , o n e y e a r p l a n a n d s u b s e q u e n t mo b i l i t y , f i v e y e a r p l a n a n d s u b s e q u e n t m o b i l i t y , a n d c h o i c e a n d s u b s e q u e n t m o b i l i t y , i n t h e o r d e r d e s c r i b e d . I n su m m ary, m o v in g p l a n s w e r e m o r e c l o s e l y a s s o c i a t e d w i t h s u b s e q u e n t m o b i l i t y t h a n w a s m o v in g c h o i c e . T h e s e c o m p a r is o n s s u g g e s t t h a t f a c t o r s im p e d in g a n d f a c i l i t a t i n g m o v e r s m ay p l a y a n im p o r t a n t r o l e i n t h e m o b i l i t y o f i n d i v i d u a l h o u s e h o l d s . A r e - e x a m i n a t i o n o f T a b le 2 1 i n d i c a t e s t h a t i n t e r c o r r e l a t i o n s b e t w e e n t h e c r i t e r i a a r e g e n e r a l l y l o w . T h e m o b i l i t y c r i t e r i a a p p e a r t o b e r e l a t i v e l y i n d e p e n d e n t . W h ile m o v in g c h o i c e s a n d p l a n s m ay b e u s e d t o p r e d i c t s u b s e q u e n t b e h a v i o r w i t h se m e a c c u r a c y , m o v in g c h o i c e s a n d p l a n s a s c r i t e r i o n m e a s u r e s c a n n o t b e a c c u r a t e l y s u b s t i t u t e d f o r s u b s e q u e n t m o b i l i t y . T h e e v i d e n c e s u g g e s t s t h a t c h o i c e , p l a n s , a n d s u b s e q u e n t b e h a v i o r a r e d i s p a r a t e m o b i l i t y i n d i c a t o r s t h a t s h o u l d n o t b e c o n f u s e d o r u s e d i n t e r c h a n g e a b l y . 122 Table 21 - P h i and P h i/P h i Maximum I n te r c o r r e la tio n s o f M o b ility C r ite r ia : F iv e Year P la n , One Year P la n , C h oice, and Observed M o b ility , T otal Panel P h i I n te r c o r r e la tio n Measure F ive Year Plan One Year P lan C hoice Behavio: F iv e Year P lan •5k •50 .33 One Year Plan .83 .50 •kh P h i/P h i Maximum I n te r c o r r e la tio n Choice ,6k .68 .13 B ehavior • 51 .5 5 .17 123 C om b in ed C o n t r i b u t i o n o f C h o ic e a n d P l a n s t o O b s e r v e d M o b i l i t y G iv e n t h e f i n d i n g s t h a t i n t e n t i o n s , c h o i c e , an d m o b i l i t y r a t e s a r e n o t i d e n t i c a l , t h e r e r e m a in s t h e p r o b le m o f d e t e r m i n i n g t h e r e l a t i v e i n f l u e n c e o f i n t e n t i o n s and c h o i c e u p o n o b s e r v e d m o b i l i t y . Ob s e r v e d r e l a t i o n s o f o n e an d f i v e y e a r p l a n s and c h o i c e t o s u b s e q u e n t r e s i d e n t i a l m o b i l i t y w e r e u s e d t o c o n s t r u c t a n e x p e c t e d p a t t e r n o f o b s e r v e d m o b i l i t y r a t e s r e f l e c t i n g t h e s i m u l t a n e o u s c o n t r i b u t i o n o f e a c h p l a n an d c h o i c e m e a s u r e . I t w a s a n t i c i p a t e d t h a t t h e r e w o u ld b e g r e a t e r o b s e r v e d m o b i l i t y r a t e d i f f e r e n c e s w h e n t h e m e a s u r e s w e r e com b in e d th a n w h e n t a k e n s e p a r a t e l y , a n d t h a t t h e r a t e s w o u ld f l u c t u a t e a c c o r d i n g t o t h e r e l a t i v e c o n t r i b u t i o n o f e a c h v a r i a b l e t o t h e s u b s e q u e n t m o b i l i t y r a t e . A n a s s u m p t io n w a s m ad e t h a t t h e r a n k o f t h e p r e v i o u s l y r e p o r t e d P h i c o r r e l a t i o n s o f a t t i t u d i n a l m e a s u r e s o f m o b i l i t y r a t e s w i t h o b s e r v e d m o b i l i t y d e t e r m in e d t h e r e l a t i v e c o n t r i b u t i o n o f t h e a t t i t u d i n a l m e a s u r e s t o p r o s p e c t i v e r e s i d e n t i a l m o b i l i t y r a t e s . A c c o r d i n g l y , t h e g r e a t e s t c o n t r i b u t i o n s h o u ld b e m ade b y t h e o n e y e a r p l a n , f o l l o w e d b y t h e f i v e y e a r p l a n , a n d t h e n b y c h o i c e . A t e s t o f t h i s a s s u m p t io n i s su m m a r iz e d i n T a b le 2 2 . I n t h e f i r s t r o w t h e com b i n a t i o n h a v i n g t h e h i g h e s t a ssu m e d m o b i l i t y r a t e i s r e c o r d e d ( o n e y e a r p la n t o m o v e , f i v e y e a r p l a n t o m o v e , c h o i c e t o m o v e ) . T h e n i n s u c c e e d i n g r o w s t h e c o m b in a t io n s a r e r a n k e d b y l i s t i n g t h e n e x t m o s t i m p o r t a n t v a r i a b l e ( f i v e y e a r p l a n ) , an d t h e l e a s t im p o r t a n t v a r i a b l e ( o n e y e a r c h o i c e ) . A s i n d i c a t e d i n T a b le 2 2 , tw o o f t h e c o m b i n a t i o n s a r e i l l o g i c a l ( f i v e y e a r p la n t o s t a y - o n e y e a r p l a n t o m ove - c h o i c e 12l+ T a b le 2 2 - T e s t o f A s s u m p t io n o f C o m b in ed C o n t r i b u t i o n s o f F i v e Y e a r P l a n , O ne Y e a r P l a n , a n d C h o i c e t o O b s e r v e d M o b i l i t y One Y e a r P l a n F i v e Y e a r P l a n C h o ic e M o b i l i t y R a t e P e r C e n t Num ber T o t a l T o t a l T o t a l 2 2 .9 9S7 M ove M ove M ove 5 6 .0 223 M ove M ove S t a y 3 3 .3 k s M ove S t a y M ove 2 5 . 0 8 M ove S t a y S t a y 3 3 .0 * 6 S t a y M ove M ove 1 7 .1 117 S t a y M ove S t a y 1 7 .5 120 S t a y S t a y M ove 1 1 .8 68 S t a y S t a y S t a y 6 .2 370 R a n g e o f R a t e I+ 8 .4 ------- * I l l o g i c a l c o m b i n a t i o n s 125 t o m o v e ; a n d , f i v e y e a r p l a n t o s t a y - o n e y e a r p l a n t o m o v e - c h o i c e t o s t a y ) . I f t h e s e i l l o g i c a l c o m b i n a t i o n s a r e i g n o r e d , t h e r e s u l t i s a l i s t i n g o f t h e c o m b i n a t i o n s o n t h e b a s i s o f t h e i r e x p e c t e d d e s c e n d i n g o b s e r v e d m o b i l i t y r a t e s w i t h f i v e o f t h e s i x r e m a in in g c o m b i n a t i o n s b e i n g i n t h e a s s u m e d o r d e r . O b s e r v e d p r o s p e c t i v e r e s i d e n t i a l m o b i l i t y r a t e s i n t h e L o s A n g e l e s M e t r o p o l i t a n A r e a w e r e b e s t d e t e r m in e d b y o n e y e a r p l a n s , f o l l o w e d b y f i v e y e a r p l a n s , and b y c h o i c e , i n t h i s o r d e r . The v a r i a b l e s o f o n e y e a r p l a n , f i v e y e a r p l a n , a n d c h o i c e i n c o m b in a t i o n f u r t h e r s e r v e d t o d i s t i n g u i s h h i g h a n d l o w p o p u l a t i o n c a t e g o r i e s o v e r w h ic h t h e r e w a s a n i n e f o l d v a r i a t i o n i n o b s e r v e d m o b i l i t y r a t e s . R e s i d e n t i a l c h o i c e s a n d p l a n s , w h i l e d i s p a r a t e i n d e x e s , d o 3 e r v e t o d i s c r i m i n a t e b e t w e e n m o b i l e and n o n - m o b ile p o p u l a t i o n s . T h e d a t a , h o w e v e r , d o n o t s u b s t a n t i a t e t h e p o p u la r n o t i o n t h a t r e s i d e n c e c h a n g e s i n L o s A n g e l e s r e p r e s e n t c a p r i c i o u s b e h a v i o r g u id e d b y t h e sa m e k i n d o f w h im a s m ay b e i n v o l v e d i n t h e s e l e c t i o n o f a h o u s e h o l d a p p l i a n c e o r a n a u t o m o b i l e . C h o ic e i s c l e a r l y l e s s s i g n i f i c a n t i n s u b s e q u e n t m o b i l i t y t h a n a r e p l a n s , a n d p l a n s d o n o t a l w a y s r e s u l t i n b e h a v i o r . A c o m p a r is o n o f t h e m o b i l i t y r a t e c h a n g e i n T a b le 2 2 w i t h t h e r a n g e s f o r c o m b i n a t i o n s o f t w o c r i t e r i o n m e a s u r e s i n T a b le 2 3 , s h o w s t h a t t h e a b s o l u t e r a n g e w a s a p p r o x im a t e ly a s g r e a t f o r t h e c o m b in a t io n o f o n e y e a r p l a n a n d c h o i c e (2+6>.0 p e r c e n t ) a s i t w a s w h e n t h e f i v e y e a r p l a n s w e r e i n c l u d e d ( 1 ^ . 8 p e r c e n t ) . On t h e o t h e r h a n d , t h e r a n g e o f r a t e s f o r c o m b i n a t i o n s o f o n e a n d f i v e y e a r p l a n w a s 3 5 * 1 p e r T a b le 23 - T e s t o f Assum ption o f C om b in ed C o n t r i b u t i o n s o f P l a n s and C h o ic e One F iv e M o b ility year year ra te Number p la n p lan per c e n t One year move move 5 2 .2 268 plan move sta y 2 8 .6 ll+* and sta y move 17*3 237 f iv e stay sta y 17-1 1+38 year plan Range o f r a te s 35.1 - One M o b ility year C hoice ra te Number p lan per cen t One year move move 55-0 231 plan move sta y 33.3 51 and sta y move 15-k 185 ch o ice stay sta y 9 .0 1+90 Range o f r a te s J 46.O — F i v e C h o ic e M o b i l i t y Num ber y e a r r a t e p l a n p e r c e n t C h o ic e a n d m ove m ove 1 + 2 .6 3i+ 0 f i v e m ove s t a y 2 1 .8 76 y e a r s t a y m o v e 1 3 .2 165 p l a n s t a y s t a y 6 .6 376 R a n g e o f r a t e s 3 6 .0 - * I llo g ic a l com bination 127 c e n t , a n d f o r c h o i c e a n d f i v e y e a r p l a n , 3 6 . 0 p e r c e n t . A s a r e s u l t o f t h e r e l a t i v e l y h i g h c o r r e l a t i o n o f o n e a n d f i v e y e a r p l a n s , t h e f i v e y e a r p l a n w a s e x c l u d e d a s a c r i t e r i o n m e a s u r e and t h e m o b i l i t y m e a s u r e s r e t a i n e d a s c r i t e r i a w e r e o n e y e a r p l a n , c h o i c e , a n d o b s e r v e d m o b i l i t y . W h ile tw o a t t i t u d i n a l m e a s u r e s o f p r o s p e c t i v e m o b i l i t y w e r e r e t a i n e d t h e p r im a r y f o c u s o f t h i s r e s e a r c h i s o n o b s e r v e d m o b i l i t y fr o m t h e p e r i o d o f 1961- 1962. XV. I n t e r r e l a t i o n s h i p o f P r o s p e c t i v e an d R e t r o s p e c t i v e R e s i d e n t i a l M o b i l i t y T h e p r o s p e c t i v e a n d r e t r o s p e c t i v e r e s i d e n t i a l m o b i l i t y a n a l y s i s i s l i m i t e d t o o n e y e a r p r i o r t o i n t e r v i e w a n d o n e y e a r s u b s e q u e n t t o i n t e r v i e w . A s i n d i c a t e d i n T a b l e 2 k&*7 p e r c e n t o f t h e r e t r o s p e c t i v e m o v e r s w e r e o b s e r v e d t o m o v e d u r i n g t h e f o l l o w i n g y e a r . On t h e o t h e r h a n d , 1 6 . 6 p e r c e n t o f t h e r e t r o s p e c t i v e n o n m o v e r s m ade m o v e s d u r i n g t h e s u b s e q u e n t o n e y e a r o b s e r v a t i o n p e r i o d . T h e p e r c e n t a g e o f r e t r o s p e c t i v e m o v e r s w h o h a d p r o s p e c t i v e c h o i c e an d p l a n s f o r r e s i d e n t i a l m o b i l i t y f o r t h e f o l l o w i n g y e a r w a s i|5 » 7 i n b o t h i n s t a n c e s . F o r r e t r o s p e c t i v e n o n m o v e r s , p r o s p e c t i v e c h o i c e a n d p l a n s w e r e 3 9 * 8 wnH 2 5 . 8 p e r c e n t , r e s p e c t i v e l y . I n c o n c l u s i o n , p a s t m o b i l i t y a p p e a r s t o b e a f a i r l y r e l i a b l e i n d i c a t o r o f p o t e n t i a l r e s i d e n t i a l m o b i l i t y and s t a b i l i t y . 128 Table 24 — In te r r e la tio n sh ip o f P ro sp ectiv e and R etro sp ectiv e R e s i d e n t i a l M ob ility C riterio n Measures P ro sp ectiv e R esid en tia l M ob ility R etro sp ectiv e R esid en tia l M ob ility Movers Nonmovers N Percent N Percent Choice: Movers 9 6 307 4 5 .7 39 -8 Nonmovers 111* 464 Planned: Movers 9 6 119 4 5 .7 2 5 .8 Nonmovers 111* 572 O b s e r v e d : M o v e r s Nonmovers 98 56.7 112 128 6 1 * 3 16.6 129 V. Summary and Conclusions In th is chapter p rospective and retro sp ectiv e r e s id e n tia l m obility c r ite r io n measures were d elin eated and the h orizon tal m o b ility exp eri ences of the members o f the r e sid e n tia l m ob ility panel were d escribed. The p o ssib le a lte r n a tiv e c la s s if ic a t io n s o f re tr o sp e c tiv e m ob ility based upon a one year observation period were nonmovers, lo c a l movers, and lo n g -d ista n ce movers. Of those who had made a retro sp ectiv e move, 82 per cent made i t w ith in the m etropolitan a rea . E ighteen per cent o f th e movers came in to th e Los A ngeles S M S A area from ou tsid e th at m etropolitan complex. P rosp ective r e sid e n tia l m o b ility c r ite r io n measures were ch o ice, p la n s, and observed m o b ility . Observed m o b ility was determined by a follow -up one year a fte r the i n i t i a l in terview took p la c e . C ategories as a r e su lt o f th e follow -up procedure were movers and nonmovers. P rosp ective movers were not d elin eated into lo c a l and lo n g -d ista n ce mover components. Choice and plans were determined by questionnaire responses. I t was determined th a t ch o ice, plans and subsequent be havior can be regarded as separate dimensions o f r e sid e n tia l m o b ility . The in te r r e la tio n sh ip of retro sp ectiv e and p rosp ective r e sid e n tia l m o b ility measures showed th at there was a f a ir ly su b sta n tia l r e la tio n sh ip . For example, 1&.7 per cen t of the re tro sp ectiv e movers made a subsequent move during the one year follow -up p eriod . P rosp ective choice and plans were only s lig h t ly le s s rela ted to retro sp ectiv e mo b i l i t y . On th e other hand, only 1 6 . 6 per cent o f the retro sp ectiv e nonmovers moved w ith in the one year follow -u p p eriod , although almost 130 fo r ty per cen t chose to move and s lig h t ly over on e-fou rth planned to do s o . The r e la tio n s h ip i s f a i r l y c le a r , previous r e s id e n tia l m o b ility i s r e la te d to subsequent m ob ility and previous nonm obility i s c le a r ly rela te d to subsequent nonm obility. C onclusions th a t we have reached as a r e s u lt o f th ese an alyses are th at the p ro sp ectiv e c r ite r io n measures of r e s id e n tia l m o b ility of c h o ic e , plans and observed m o b ility are d isp arate indexes* W e have fu rth er concluded th a t th ere i s a high r e la tio n sh ip between retro sp ec t iv e and p ro sp ectiv e r e s id e n tia l m o b ility , although in the an alyses th at fo llo w in th e remaining chapters we sh a ll consider them as dispa ra te in d exes. C H A P T E R VI C A REER A N D INTERGENERATIONAL MOBILITY: THEIR INTERRELATIONSHIPS W ITH PROSPECTIVE A N D RETROSPECTIVE RESIDENTIAL MOBILITY I* In tro d u ctio n This chapter i s devoted to ill u s t r a ti n g th e re la tio n s h ip o f r e s i d e n tia l moves to c a re e r and in te rg e n e ra tio n a l m o b ility . The lite r a tu r e abounds w ith discu ssio n s o f th e e ffe c t th a t c a re e r m obility has on r e s id e n tia l moves. The argument as i t i s g e n erally p resen ted involves s ta tu s changes th a t are brought about by those whose occupational careers a re upwardly mobile which r e s u lts in a resid en ce change L i t t l e resea rch o r d iscu ssio n has been devoted to th e re la tio n s h ip of downward m o b ility and in te rg e n e ra tio n a l m o b ility to residence changes .2 While th e argument o f th e p o sitiv e re la tio n s h ip between upward occupational m o b ility and r e s id e n tia l moves has been fo rc ib ly presented, l i t t l e system atic knowledge i s a v a ila b le concerning th is h y p o th esis. As a r e s u l t, t h is research t e s t s the assum ption t h a t occupational m o b i l i t y , both c a re e r and in te rg e n e ra tio n a l, has a b earin g upon r e s i d e n tia l moves. ^ See Chapter I I I , fo o tn o te 38 f o r re fe re n c e s. 2 Some re p o rts have r e la te d downward m o b ility to s o c ia l problem s. For work suggesting such r e la tio n s h ip s , see: Warren Breed, "Occupa tio n a l M obility and Suicide among White M ales,1 1 American S o cio lo g ical Review, 28 (A p ril, 1963) , pp* 189-203. 3132 Finding th e nexus of r e s id e n tia l moves to occupational m o b ility i s n o t an easy t a s k . R e sid e n tia l moves may occur in an a n tic ip a tio n o f a move upward i n the occupational system o r th ey may occur sim ul taneously w ith o ccupational movement. I n addition* the p o s s ib ility o f occupational m o b ility occurring f i r s t and r e s id e n tia l movement l a t e r as a consequence a f t e r the occupational change occurs and th e new occupational p o s itio n s o lid if ie d c e rta in ly e x is ts . I n any o f th e s e p o s s ib ilitie s * th e ex act re la tio n s h ip between occupational movement and r e s id e n tia l change i s d i f f i c u l t to assess by d ir e c t questioning o f respondents. Most stu d ie s o f r e s id e n tia l m o b i l i t y in fa c t have not sy ste m atica lly explored th e occupational fa c e ts and in ste a d have dwelled upon demographic fa c to rs such as l i f e cycle changes or age* and a ttitu d in a l mechanisms r e la tin g to such problems as housing and neighborhood s a t i s f a c t i o n . ^ A ttitu d in a l changes which on p e rfu n cto ry a n a ly sis appear to have no re la tio n sh ip to occupational changes may lea d to a r e s id e n tia l move. This may be i ll u s t r a te d by a fam ily who has been s a tis f ie d w ith th e ir resid en ce fo r some tim e. Then* a job prom otion may be obtained and the resid en ce which th e fam ily form erly p erceiv ed as s u ita b le i s now found to have c e rta in d e fic ie n c ie s . ^ O stensibly* occupational advancement ^ For stu d ie s which r e la te d some o f th ese fa c to rs to a c rite r io n measure o f r e s id e n tia l m obility* see: Edgar W. Butler* Qeorges Sabagh* and Maurice D. Tan Arsdol* J r . , "Demographic and S o c ial Psychological F acto rs in R e sid e n tia l M o b ility ," Sociology and S o c ial Research* U8 (January, 196U), p p . 139-l5U; Gerald R. L e slie and A rthur H. R ichardson, "L ife-C ycle, Career* and th e D ecision to Move," American S o cio lo g ical Review, 26 (December* 1961), pp. 89U-902; and* P e te r H. Rossi* Why F am ilies Move (G lencoe, I l l i n o i s r The Free Press* 1955). ^ Butler* Sabagh, and Van Arsdol* lo c . c i t . 133 had l i t t l e to do w ith th e resid en ce change. Y et, upon f a r th e r consider a tio n , i f a c o n siste n t p a tte rn i s e x h ib ited by a la rg e number of fa m ilie s who have been o ccu p atio n ally m obile, perhaps occupational changes have sig n ific a n c e fo r r e s id e n tia l moves. In th e rnwwinrtrrr o f t h is ch ap ter, c aree r and in te rg e n e ra tio n a l occupational n o b ility a re r e la te d to both p ro sp ectiv e and re tro s p e c tiv e r e s id e n tia l m o b ility and to re tro s p e c tiv e lo n g -d ista n ce moves. The f i r s t se c tio n examines th e re la tio n s h ip between r e s id e n tia l m o b ility and head o f household1 s occupational SBS a t tim e o f in te rv ie w . The in flu e n ce o f th e head o f household's in between 1950 and 1961 occupa tio n a l SES upon r e s id e n tia l m o b ility i s examined in th e second se c tio n . The th ir d p a r t o f t h i s chapter c o n sists of an a n a ly sis o f th e to ad o f household's 1950 occupational SES and c u rre n t ch o ice, p la n s, and ob served r e s id e n tia l m o b ility experience f o r one year a f t e r in terv iew , and th e re tro sp e c tiv e r e s id e n tia l m o b ility experience o f the sample. An exam ination o f th e re la tio n s h ip between r e s id e n tia l m o b ility and head o f household's c a re e r p a tte rn i s found in th e fo u rth se c tio n . The l a s t two se c tio n s c o n s is t o f an a n a ly sis o f in te rg e n e ra tio n a l in flu en ce on r e s id e n tia l moves, and a summary of th e ch ap ter. R e sid e n tia l M obility and Head o f H ousehold's l£61 O ccupational SES In tro d u ctio n There has p e rs is te d in both popular and sc h o la rly l it e r a t u r e a re p o rte d re la tio n s h ip between c u rre n t occupational le v e l of th e head o f household and r e s id e n tia l m o b ility . This o p inion, however, has 13i* been based m ainly upon unsystem atic observation ra th e r than adequately designed resea rch endeavors te s tin g s p e c ific hypotheses. In consider a tio n of th is l i t e r a t u r e , i t was hypothesized th a t th e 1961 occupa tio n a l SES o f th e head o f household would be p o s itiv e ly re la te d w ith p ro sp ectiv e ch o ice, p la n s, and observed r e s id e n tia l m o b ility . F urther more, th ere was an expectancy th a t head o f household’s c u rre n t occu p a tio n a l SES would be re la te d to re tro sp e c tiv e r e s id e n tia l m o b ility and lo n g -d istan ce moves. P rospective and R etro sp ectiv e R e sid e n tia l M obility and Head o f Household’s 1961 O ccupational SES Of th e 917 fa m ilie s upon which we had c u rre n t occupational in - q form ation, U3«5 p e r c en t expressed a choice of moving from th e ir c u rre n t p la c e o f re sid e n c e . T h is, o f course, i s much higher than the percentage o f fa m ilie s in th is sample who a c tu a lly d id move w ith in a y e a r 's p erio d o f tim e a f t e r th e i n i t i a l in terv iew . While a l l o f these choice movers d id n o t a c tu a lly move w ithin th e followup p e rio d , th is does not ru le o u t th e p o s s ib ility o f th e ir moving subsequently. The re la tio n s h ip between head o f household’s c u rre n t occupational SES and th e r e s id e n tia l m o b ility c r ite r io n measures i s shown in Table 2!>. The d ata i n column 1 in d ic a te th a t th e re are no major r a te d iffe re n c e s in re s p e c t to m o b ility choice and cu rre n t occupational SES. T ills, o f co u rse, does n o t e lim in a te c u rre n t occupational SES as a 5 The d iffe re n c e in t h is fig u re and th e one p resen ted in Chapter VI i s a r e s u lt o f excluding households in which no occupational in form ation was a v a ila b le . 135 m o tiv a tio n al fo rce i n r e s id e n tia l moves* Tfonee dtettm in d ic a te th a t c u rre n t occupational SES does n o t e ff e c tiv e ly pnwitefc choice i n r e s i d e n tia l moves* The h ig h e st r a te o f choice mmM Uty i n in. the low^- middle SES group and^bhe low est i n the hij^wmMiSl® categ o ry . The low and high SES groups had in term ed iate r a te s cftm riicw i m o b ility . Of th e 917 fa m ilie s , 30*2 p e r cent planned tm > u r n w ith in one y ear follow ing i n i t i a l c o n ta c t. The re la tio n s h ip o f pfllawrasf re s id e n tia l, m o b ility to head o f household's c u rre n t oempfflMmnaiL SES i s shown in column 2 o f Table 25* R ate d iffe re n c e s a re so s n a il a s to in d ic a te th a t c u rre n t o ccupational SES i s n o t an iinpgrtfc a afc f a c to r i n w hether or n o t a fam ily i s planning to move o r sta y im tflmtir tuurrant re sid e n c e . As w ith choice o f m o b ility , th e h ig h est r a t e was ffbnnd i n th e low - m iddle stratu m , and th e low est i n th e hi^wnmdkflBe c ateg o ry . The low and high SES c la s s e s were in te rm e d iate i n planumA m o b ility r a t e s . Of course, p lan s are n o t a measure o f the ab O i-ty t® a c tu a lly move which may be r e la te d to SES. There were few er planned th a n choice muuwstrs. The number o f a c tu a l moves was le s s th an planned w ith 22.8 percea* a c tu a lly moving during th e one y ear o b serv atio n period* Observed ptrm^paelli.vw r e s id e n tia l m o b ility was found n o t to be r e la te d to bb® S o o bS o f household's occupational SES le v e l a t time o f in te rv ie w . This r a t e d iffe re n c e s , as shown in column 3 o f T able 25, a re r e la tiv e ly sm all and in d ic a te th a t c u rre n t occupational SES does n o t p re d ic t p m ^ e c ttiie r e s id e n tia l mo b i l i t y . The h ig h est r a te o f observed m ofoOiLlfcy was found i n th e low est occupational c ateg o ry . The fin d in g s fo r ibhe aottftsr th re e SES s t r a t a were somewhat c o n siste n t w ith choice and pTmms. Howeve r , th e magnitude 136 o f the d iffe re n c e s was g re a te r in observed m o b ility r a te s . Most lik e ly to follow through th e ir r e s id e n tia l m o b ility plans were those in th e low est and high-m iddle s tr a ta . L east lik e ly to f o l low through on p lan s were persons in the highest and low-middle c a te g o rie s . Economic f a c to r s , according to th ese d a ta , are not im- p o rta n t impediments of r e s id e n tia l m o b ility . Of a l l those who a c tu a lly moved during th e one year p rio r to the observation p e rio d , 82 p e rc en t made a move w ith in the Los Angeles Standard M etropolitan S t a t i s t i c a l Area and were designated as r e tr o sp e ctiv e lo c a l movers. Eighteen p e r cent of the re tro sp e c tiv e movers came to Los Angeles from o u tsid e th e M etropolitan Area and were c la s s i f ie d as re tro sp e c tiv e lo n g -d istan ce movers. Our hypothesis was th a t th ere would be a re la tio n s h ip between head of h o u se h o ld s 1961 occupa tio n a l SES and re tro sp e c tiv e r e s id e n tia l moves. In an a n a ly sis of re tro s p e c tiv e r e s id e n tia l m o b ility by head o f household's 1961 socioeconomic s ta tu s , th e r e s u lts were very sim ila r to the observed r e s id e n tia l m obility experience of the p an el. As shown in column U o f Table 29, th e only d iffe re n c e of any s ig n ific a n t magni tude was in th e low-middle SES stratum where the re tro sp e c tiv e r a te of r e s id e n tia l m o b ility was 29.0 compared to the p ro sp ectiv e r a te of 23.0. The o v e ra ll r a t e o f re tro sp e c tiv e and observed m o b ility was 22.9 and 22. 8, re s p e c tiv e ly . Frequent d iscu ssio n has been made o f "o rg an izatio n men" and th e ir movement about th e country from one corporate s i t e to another, and th e su sp icio n lin g e re d th a t perhaps a d iffe re n c e wound be found when re tro sp e c tiv e lo c a l and lo n g -d istan ce movers were analyzed. As shown 137 in column U o f Table 25, th is su sp icio n , however, was not confirm ed. Even though lo n g -d istan ce moves most c e rta in ly re q u ire more economic reso u rce s, no s trik in g d iffe re n c e s were observed. The s lig h t d if f e r ences found were counter to what has been re p o rte d p re v io u sly . For example, the upper SE S group had a s lig h tly lower lo n g -d ista n ce mo b i l i t y r a te than th e low SE S group, and th e r a te s i n th e middle two c ateg o ries were le s s than those in the high And low SES s t r a t a , w ith the high-m iddle recording th e low est r a t e . The high-m iddle group which had th e low est p a s t m o b ility r a te a lso had the low est lo n g -d istan ce m o b ility r a t e . The low-middle category which had the h ig h est m obility r a te had an in term ed iate lo n g -d istan ce m obility r a t e . Summary The hypotheses te s te d in t h is se c tio n were t h a t c u rre n t occupa tio n a l SE S of th e head of household would be p o s itiv e ly re la te d w ith choice, p la n s, and prospective r e s id e n tia l m o b ility . A second hypo th e s is was th a t head of household’s c u rre n t occupational S E S would be re la te d to re tro sp e c tiv e r e s id e n tia l m o b ility and lo n g -d istan ce moves. The r e s u lts o f the foregoing analyses in d ic a te th a t each o f th ese hypotheses fo r the most p a rt must be re je c te d . Furtherm ore, th ere were only s lig h t r a te d iffe re n c e s in re tro sp e c tiv e r e s id e n tia l m obility r a te s and in th e r a te of lo n g -d istan ce moves which was counter to our h ypothesis. 138 Table 2$ - R ates o f P ro sp ectiv e and R etro sp ectiv e R e sid e n tia l M obility and Head o f H ousehold's l? 6 l O ccupational SK? 1961 P ro sp ec tiv e______ R etro sp ectiv e O ccupational SES Choice (1) Planned (2) ' Observed (3) O verall (U) Long-Distance (5) N Low U2.9 31.1 28.3 26. u 5 .2 (212) L-ttiddle U6.0 32.0 23.0 29.0 u .o (200) H-Middle Uo*U 25.7 19.3 18.3 2.3 (218) High 1 iu.6 31.7 21.2 22.6 U.5 (287) O verall Rate ii3.5 30.2 22.8 22.5 U.0 3 (917) -tJ-Rates are per 100, I I I . R e s id e n tia l M obility and Head o f Household’s In between 1930 and 1961 O ccupational SES 139 In tro d u c tio n A sim ila r hypothesis to th a t of c u rre n t occupational SES was made fo r head o f household's in between 1950 and 1961 o ccupational SES. I t was hypothesized t h a t the head of household’s in between 1950 and 1961 occupational SES would be r e la te d to p ro sp e c tiv e choice, planned, and observed r e s id e n tia l m o b ility . In a d d itio n , i t was hypothesized th a t re tro s p e c tiv e r e s id e n tia l m o b ility and lo n g -d ista n ce moves would be re la te d to head o f household's in between 1950 and 1961 occupational SES. P ro sp ectiv e and R etro sp ectiv e R e sid e n tia l M obility and Head o f Household’s In Between 1950 and 1961 O ccupational SES As shown in column 1 o f Table 26, choice o f r e s id e n tia l m obility c ro s s - c la s s ifie d w ith th e o ccupational SES in between 1950 and 1961 of th e head o f household re s u lte d in r a te d iffe re n c e s . These d iffe re n c e s are la rg e enough to in d ic a te th a t the lower SES groups were more lik e ly th an upper SES groups to choose moving. T his may be more s ig n ific a n t than i t appears for. many o f th ese very same p erso n s, by 1961 had moved upward in SES b u t by then SES d iffe re n c e s in choice o f moving or sta y in g had been removed. Planned r e s id e n tia l m o b ility and head o f household's occupational SES in between 1950 and 1961 in d ic a te s a p a tte r n sim ila r to th a t found under choice. The d a ta in column 2 o f Table 26 in d ic a te th a t the lower SES groups had a higher r a te o f planned moves than th e upper gag? 11*0 s t r a t a . However, th e d iffe re n c e s in r a t e s o f planned movers by SES are not n e a rly as g re a t as those found in ch o ice. I n a d d itio n , th e r a te s decrease approxim ately p ro p o rtio n a te ly in each SES. S ev eral r a te d iffe re n c e s were found in re sp e c t to p ro sp ectiv e r e s id e n tia l m o b ility and head o f household's i n between 1950 and 1961 o ccu p atio n al SES'. These d iffe re n c e s , as shown in column 3 o f Table 26, are o f such a magnitude to in d ic a te th a t some SES d if f e r e n tia ls are im portant in the r a t e o f r e s id e n tia l m o b ility . The h ig h e st r a te o f observed m o b ility was recorded by the low SES category, and the low est r a te was recorded i n th e uppermost stratu m . However, th e low-middle g ro u p 's m o b ility r a te approxim ated th a t o f th e high SES category. The high-m iddle SES persons were in term ed iate to the low est and h ig h est r e s id e n tia l m o b ility r a te s . In an a n a ly sis of re tro s p e c tiv e r e s id e n tia l m o b ility , th e r a te s were d is trib u te d approxim ately the same as fo r p ro sp ectiv e observed m o b ility . The re tro s p e c tiv e and observed r e s id e n tia l m o b ility r a te s were 20.5 and 21.8, re s p e c tiv e ly . As shown in column U o f Table 26, th e h ig h est r a t e s o f long d ista n c e moves a re found in th e low and high occupational SES. In a d d itio n , ra th e r la rg e d iffe re n c e s appear when the low-m iddle SES o ccu p atio n al le v e l i s compared to the o th e r SES c a te g o rie s where much h igh er r a te s of lo n g -d ista n c e moves are ap p aren t. The r a te o f long d ista n c e moves e x h ib ite d by th e high-m iddle SES categ o ry was only s lig h tly le s s th an fo r the low est and h ig h e st s t r a ta . Table 26 - R ates o f P rospective and R etrospective R e sid e n tia l M obility and Head o f Household*s In between 1950 and 1 9 6 1 Occupa tio n a l SE£r ** 1950 and 1961 O ccupational SES Choice (1) Planned (2) Observed (3) O verall (U) Long-Distance (5) N Low 5i.l* 33.3 28. 1 * 25.5 U.9 (21*3) L-Middle 1*8.2 31.6 18.1 21.2 1 .0 (193) H-Middle 36.1* 2l*.l* 22.2 16.5 2.8 (176) High 36.5 26.9 17.3 17.3 3.1* (208) O verall Rate 1*3.7 29.U 21.8 20.5 3.2 (820) *The N 's and thus th e r a te s in th is and subsequent ta b le s in th is ch ap ter w ill d if f e r from th o se o f Table 25 as a r e s u l t o f a la c k o f inform ation and a flu c tu a tin g number of sons in th e working fo rce a t v ario u s p o in ts In tim e. «*Rates are per 100. Ilj2 Summary S im ilar hypotheses to those assumed fo r th e c u rre n t occupational SES were made fo r head of household's in between 1950 and 1961 occupa tio n a l SES. An expected re la tio n s h ip between occupational SES and pro sp ectiv e choice, planned, and observed r e s id e n tia l moves, as w ell as re tro s p e c tiv e r e s id e n tia l m obility and long-distance moves, was made. The r e s u lts of the a n a ly sis of th e in between 1950 and 1961 occu p a tio n a l SES and r e s id e n tia l moves were in c o n tra st to th e 1961 occupa tio n a l SES. There was a strong tendency fo r th e r a te s o f choice, planned, and observed moves to be higher in the lower SES s t r a ta . In a d d itio n , in a comparison o f re tro sp e c tiv e r e s id e n tia l m o b ility and lo n g -d istan ce moves, o v e ra ll re s id e n tia l m o b ility r a te s were h ig h est in the two low est SES c a te g o rie s. On th e other hand, lo n g -d istan ce r a te s were h ig h est in the low and high SES c a te g o rie s. The r a te o f long d istan c e movers was alm ost as high in th e high-m iddle group; however, th e re was a much lower r a te o f lon g -d istan ce moves in the low-middle group. I n summary, a p o s itiv e re la tio n sh ip between head o f household's SES and r e s id e n tia l moves was hypothesized. The r e s u lts , however, are in c o n tra st to most o f th e reported l ite r a tu r e w ith th e low est SES having higher r a te s of choice, planned, and pro sp ectiv e moves. P a rt o f th ese fin d in g s c a rrie d over in to an a n a ly sis o f re tro sp e c tiv e geo graphic m o b ility . In th e a n aly sis o f re tro sp e c tiv e m o b ility , h a lf of th e lo n g -d istan ce moves were c a rrie d out by heads o f households in the low est SES stratu m . On th e other hand, th e h ig h est r a te o f long- d to tan se m o b ility was found i n th e low SES category which i s in con t r a s t to sp eeo lativ e 13.tora.t a r e , 17 . R esidential M ob i l i t y and Head of Household1 s 15^0 O ccupational S& > TujftjwmiKaiip 8-iiww As t o to e case o f c u rre n t occupation and in between 195>0 and 1961 o scu p stto e, i t was hypothesized th a t head o f household’s 195>0 occupa tio n s ! would be re la te d to p rospective choice, planned, and ob served aasd re tro sp e c tiv e r e s id e n tia l m o b ility and lo n g -d istan ce moves. jftwapecfri-ve and R etrospective R e sid e n tia l M obility and Head o f House- fanBdFs 1S$E> O ccupational SSS Ctoace o f stay in g o r moving when re la te d to the head of house h o ld 's 19^0 oecapational SSS shows no la rg e r a te differences* As ihaaswaited t o c o i a n 1 o f Table 27, th e major d iffe re n c e s appear to be Tfaaftarom to e low est and th e h ig h est SES c a te g o rie s . Although the d iffe re n c e s a re n o t v ery la rg e , th e r a te o f choice movers i s higher in to e low er SES c ateg o ries th an i n th e two upper SES s tr a ta . Column 2 o f Table 27 to c o n siste n t w ith the d ata concerning cftwmice o f r e s id e n tia l waves. However, th e d is p a rity appears to be imarih stro n g e r concerning p la n s. The r a te o f planned movers was higher t o to e two low er SSS groups. The o p p o site, of course, occurs among tomae pfliaau tng to s ta y . The r a te i s much higher in the two upper SES cafregm rtos. U* Table 27 - R ates o f P rospective and R etro sp ectiv e R e sid e n tia l M obility and Head o f Household's 1950 Occupational SES;* P rospective R etrospective 1950 Occupational SES Choice (1) Planned (2) Observed (?) O verall (U) Long-Distance (5) N Low 1*5.1 29.1* 21.6 15.2 1.5 (201*) L-Middle 1 * 5 * 6 32.0 19.0 18.1* 1.1* (1U7) H-Middle 39.2 22.2 19.6 9.8 1.3 (153) High 33.7 21.7 13.2 12.6 2.1* (166) O verall R ate 1*1.0 26.U 18.6 m.o 1.6 (670) -K-Rates are per 100. lb 5 Observed m o b ility somewhat re in fo rc e s the fin d in g s concerning choice and p lan s fo r moving. The r a te o f movers from th e th re e lower occupational le v e ls was much h igher than th e r a te o f th e upper category* The d ifferen c e in r a te s by SES decreased from choice, p la n s, and ob served m o b ility . The d iscrep an cies between choice, planned, and a c tu a l m o b ility were about th e same fo r a l l SES s t r a ta . The r e s u lts of an an aly sis o f re tro sp e c tiv e r e s id e n tia l m o b ility w ith o v e ra ll and lon g -d istan ce r a te s are shown in columns U and 5. The h ig h est r a te of re s id e n tia l m obility was observed in the low- middle group. The high and low SES s t r a ta had interm ediate r a te s . These r a te s are comparable to p ro sp ectiv e m o b ility r a te s fo r every category except one. The observed m o b ility r a te fo r th e high-m iddle SES group was 19.6 which was double th a t o f th e re tro sp e c tiv e m obility r a te of 9.8 in the same category. The low est r a te s o f long-distance moves were found in the lower SES occupational groups. The h ig h est lo n g -d istan ce m o b ility r a te of 2 .h was observed in th e high SES. On th e o th er hand, th e low est ra te o f 1 .3 was found in th e low-middle category. Thus i t appears th a t w hile re tro sp e c tiv e mover r a te s were higher in the lower SES c a te g o rie s, th e g re a te s t lo n g -d istan ce mover r a te was in th e high SES. Summary As in the case o f cu rren t and in between 1950 and 1961 occupations, i t was hypothesized th a t head o f household's 1950 occupational SES would d if f e r e n tia lly be re la te d to choice, planned, and p rospective moves, and to re tro sp e c tiv e r e s id e n tia l m o b ility and lo n g -d istan ce geographic m o b ility . ll|6 By and la rg e , the d iffe re n c e s observed fo r choice, planned, and observed m o b ility f i t th e fin d in g s p rev io u sly d iscussed in t h i s re p o rt and th e hypotheses are te n ta tiv e ly accepted. The r a te s o f th o se who chose, planned, and a c tu a lly c a rrie d o u t subsequent r e s id e n tia l moves were higher in th e lower SES c a te g o rie s th an in the upper SES s t r a ta . E ig h ty -eig h t p e r cent o f th e re tro s p e c tiv e moves were made w ith in th e lo c a l area and only 12 p e r cent were lo n g -d istan ce moves. The h ig h est r a te of lo n g -d istan ce moves was observed in th e high SES group. While th e lo n g -d ista n ce r a te was h ig h est i n th e upper SES group, th e abso lu te numbers were such th a t not to o much confidence can be p laced in a g e n e ra liz a tio n which s tre s s e s th e im portance o f SES to lo n g -d ista n ce moves. V. R e sid e n tia l M obility and Head o f H ousehold's Career P a tte rn In tro d u c tio n One o f th e major hypotheses o f t h is study i s th a t occupational c aree r p a tte rn s would be d if f e r e n tia lly re la te d to r e s id e n tia l m o b ility . The hypothesis th a t a c aree r p a tte r n would be r e la te d to choice, planned, and p ro sp e ctiv e m o b ility , and to p a s t r e s id e n tia l m o b ility and lo n g -d ista n ce moves, i s te s te d i n th is se c tio n . P ro sp ectiv e and R etro sp ectiv e R e sid e n tia l M obility and Head o f Household*s C areer P a tte rn Table 28 contains th e r a te s o f prospective choice, planned, and observed r e s id e n tia l m o b ility as w e ll as re tro s p e c tiv e moves by head o f household's occupational c aree r p a tte r n . In column 1 r a te s fo r iU7 Table 28 - B ates of P rospective and R etrospective R e s id e n tia l M obility and Head of Household's Occupational C areer P a tte rn * P rospective R etro sp ectiv e O ccupational Career Choice Planned Observed O verall Long-Distance P a tte rn s (1) (2) (3) (U) (5) H S ta tio n a ry 38.U 2luU 18.8 17.9 3.U (558) Upwardly Mobile 62. U U u2 27.7 27.6 2.2 (181) Downwardly Mobile 3U.6 2$.0 28.6 17.3 1.9 (52) F lu ctu atin g k $ .2 38.7 29.0 29.0 0 .0 (31) O verall Rate U3.7 29.3 21.8 20.U 2.9 (822) ■frRates are per 100. 1148 choice o f m o b ility are shown. The upwardly mobile had th e h ig h est r a t e o f expressed choice f o r r e s id e n tia l moves w ith a r a te o f 6 2 .U. The downwardly m obile had th e low est r a te w ith th e s ta tio n a ry c a re e r p a tte r n having r a te s only s lig h tly M ghw th an th e downwardly m obile. The flu c tu a tin g occupational c a re e r p a tte r n category was in term ed iate in re s p e c t to choice o f m o b ility r a t e s . The h ypothesis th a t occupational c aree r p a tte rn s would have a b earin g on choice of moving o r sta y in g appears to be somewhat over s ta te d . For some, upward and downward m o b ility e v id e n tly does have an e f f e c t on choice o f moving or sta y in g i n th e c u rre n t p lace o f residence* The d iffe re n c e s are ra th e r la rg e when th e upwardly mobile a re com pared to th e o th er SES groups. On th e o th er hand, th e downwardly m obile have th e low est r a te o f choice i n m o b ility , although the d iffe re n c e i s n o t very la rg e when compared to th e s ta tio n a ry and flu c tu a tin g c a te g o rie s . No previous study has d ir e c tly te s te d th e h ypothesis th a t c a re e r p a tte rn s would be r e la te d to choice in r e s id e n tia l moves. Our r e s u l ts , fo r th e upwardly m obile, are c o n siste n t w ith th e sp e c u la tio n th a t up ward m o b ility was re la te d to r e s id e n tia l moves. However, fo r th e downwardly m obile, we found no such stro n g r e la tio n s h ip . I n f a c t , choice m o b ility r a te s were lo w est o f a l l in th e downwardly mobile categ o ry . As shown in column 2 o f Table 28, planned r e s id e n tia l m o b ility , when r e la te d to th e head o f household *s c aree r p a tte r n , e x h ib its a sim ila r p a tte r n to t h a t o f choice o f moving. The r a te s a re rem arkably sim ila r although th e planned r a te s a re le s s th a t th e choice r a t e s . 149 The g re a te s t d e clin e in r a te s was observed in th e upwardly m obile category where a decrease i n r a t e s from 62.U to U1.2 was observed. The s ta tio n a ry , downwardly m obile, and flu c tu a tin g p a tte rn c a te g o rie s had drops in r a te s o f lU , 9 , and 7 , re s p e c tiv e ly . The h ig h e st r a te wa3 found in the upwardly mobile group, follow ed by the r a t e s in the downwardly m obile, and s ta tio n a ry c a re e r p a tte rn s . These d iffe re n c e s a re c o n s is te n t w ith th e hypothesis th a t an o ccupational c aree r p a tte r n o f upward m o b ility would be r e la te d to planned r e s id e n tia l moves. There i s , however, a suggestion th a t the h ypothesis does not apply to th o se who a re downwardly m obile. Observed m o b ility r a te s by head o f household's occupational c aree r p a tte r n are shown in column 3 o f T able 28. Almost id e n tic a l observed m o b ility r a te s were recorded i n th e upwardly and downwardly mobile groups and fo r those who had a flu c tu a tin g c aree r p a tte rn . The ra te s were 27.7, 28.6, and 29.0, re s p e c tiv e ly . The g re a te s t discrepancy between choice and observed m o b ility occurred i n th e upwardly mobile category w ith a choice r a te o f 62.U compared to an observed r a te of 27.7* The high SES had th e h ig h e st choice r a t e , however, fo r a c tu a lly carry in g o u t p la n s , th o se w ith a flu c tu a tin g c aree r p a tte r n had a s lig h tly higher r a t e th an th e upwardly m obile w ith observed m o b ility r a te s o f 29.0 and 2 7 .7 , re s p e c tiv e ly . The downwardly mobile was th e only category i n which a h ig h er observed m o b ility r a t e than planned was recorded. The planned m o b ility r a te was 2 $.0 w hile the m o b ility r a te based upon a c tu a l moves was 28.6. The d ata dem onstrate th a t most lik e ly to c a rry out th e i r choice o f moving or stay in g a re those w ith a downwardly mobile c a re e r p a tte rn . I5Q Next most lik e ly are those c la s s if ie d as having a flu c tu a tin g c a re e r p a tte r n . The o ccupationally s ta b le were th e next to l e a s t HiteiHy to c a rry out th e i r choice With th e upwardly mobile being l e a s t litaflly to c a rry out th e ir choice of moving. In a d d itio n , somewhat o f a sfwmSar re la tio n s h ip was found between plans and observed moving beifeawiczr. The upwardly mobile category was the one least likely to canty cert their plans for moving. Almost equally likely to carry out ■owing plana were the stationary and those with a fluctuating career pattern. The mobility rate of the downwardly mobile was higher than the plaanaed mobility rate. These data tend to support the hypothesis that an upwardly anMIe career pattern is related to the expression of a - choice and. fiHama for residential moves. On the other hand, this relationship becomes ana- existent when related to prospective mobility. The observed mgdcility rates were highest in the fluctuating category and next highest in the downwardly mobile group, although the rate differences betasem t&oae two strata and that of the upwardly mobile were rather small. As in d ic ate d in column U, the h ig h est r a te s o f re tro s p e c tiv e r e s id e n tia l m o b ility by occupational c a re e r p a tte rn s occurred, im tfee flu c tu a tin g and upwardly mobile c ateg o ries w ith r a te s of 29-® 2 7 .6 , re s p e c tiv e ly . The sta tio n a ry and downwardly m obile had r a t e s < m f 17.9 and 17*3. In a comparison w ith pro sp ectiv e m o b ility r a te s th e s i l i l a r i t i e s are noted in every SES category except th e Mjgb-mMdle im which the observed m obility r a t e was 2 8 .6 and the re tro s p e c t i ve. m oM lity r a te was 17*3* The o v e ra ll ra te 3 were 21.8 fo r observed m o b ility mad 20.U fo r re tro sp e c tiv e m o b ility . The lo n g -d istan ce m obility data are in c o n tra st to much o f the sp ecu lativ e .lite r a tu r e concerning r e s id e n tia l m o b ility which has long d istan c e moves being re la te d to upward m o b ility . For th is sam ple, th e h ig h est r a te o f lo n g -d istan ce moves was recorded fo r the s ta tio n a ry occupational career p a tte rn . The next h ig h est r a te was found i n the upwardly mobile group. The downwardly m obile group had an observed lo n g -d istan ce m o b ility r a te s lig h tly le s s than h a lf th a t of th e sta tio n a ry group. In a d d itio n , i t s ra te was le s s than th a t of th e up wardly m obile. The only group which had a sm aller lo n g -d istan ce m o b ility r a te was the flu c tu a tin g career p a tte rn category in which n o t one lo n g -d istan ce move was found. Summary One o f th e major hypotheses of th is study i s th a t occupational career p a tte rn s would be d if f e r e n tia lly re la te d to r e s id e n tia l m o b ility . The re la tio n s h ip was hypothesized as being re la te d to choice, planned, and observed pro sp ectiv e m o b ility , and to re tro sp e c tiv e r e s id e n tia l m o b ility and lo n g -d istan ce moves. R esu lts fo r the upwardly mobile were c o n siste n t w ith th e specula tio n th a t t h is type o f career p a tte rn would be d if f e r e n tia lly r e la te d to choice of r e s id e n tia l m o b ility . For th e downwardly mobile a strong re la tio n s h ip was not found. The highest r a te of planned r e s id e n tia l m o b ility was recorded fo r th e upwardly mobile group, follow ed by the r a te s fo r the downwardly mobile and o ccupationally s ta b le . These d iffe re n c e s are c o n siste n t w ith the hypothesis th a t an occupational c aree r p a tte r n of upward m o b ility would be re la te d to r e s id e n tia l *52 moves. This h y p o th esis, however, does n o t apply to those who are c la s s if ie d as being downwardly m obile. Almost id e n tic a l p ro sp e ctiv e m o b ility r a t e s were reco rd ed fo r th e upwardly and downwardly m obile groups and fo r those who had a flu cto * a tin g c aree r p a tte r n . The downwardly mobile group was th e only category in which a higher observed m o b ility r a t e than planned m o b ility r a te was reco rd ed . The m o b ility r a te o f th e downwardly m obile was higher than th e planned m o b ility r a t e ; t h is kind of r e s id e n tia l m obili t y p a tte rn was not observed fo r any o th er c ateg o ry . These d a ta , th e n , ten d to support th e hypothesis th a t an upwardly m obile career p a tte r n i s r e la te d to th e ex p ressio n o f a choice and p lan s fo r r e s id e n tia l moves. On the o th er hand, th is re la tio n s h ip dim inishes when a c tu a l observed m o b ility was taken in to account. The r e s id e n tia l m o b ility r a te o f th e upwardly m obile was s lig h tly le s s th an th a t o f th e downwardly mobile and o f th o se w ith a flu c tu a tin g c a re e r p a tte r n . The only occupational c a re e r p a tte rn which had a le s s e r r a te was th e s ta tio n a ry career p a tte r n . Somewhat s im ila r r a te s o f r e s id e n tia l m o b ility were e x h ib ite d i n an a n a ly sis o f re tro s p e c tiv e moves. However, the high-m iddle category had a sm aller re tro s p e c tiv e r a te th an p ro sp e c tiv e m o b ility r a t e . The o v e ra ll m o b ility r a te between re tro s p e c tiv e and observed m o b ility , however, was alm ost id e n tic a l. When those who re tro s p e c tiv e ly had moved were divided in to lo c a l and lo n g -d istan ce movers, th ese d ata a re i n c o n tra s t to much o f th e sp e cu la tiv e l i t e r a t u r e concerning r e s id e n tia l m o b ility which has long d ista n c e moves being r e la te d to upward m o b ility . For t h i s sam ple, only 153 four moves were so related and the long-distance mobility rate of the upwardly mobile did not nearly equal the rate of the stationary career pattern category; although it surpassed the long-distance mo bility rate of the downwardly mobile. In summary, the hypothesis that residential mobility would be re lated to career patterns appears to be substantiated although the relationship is not as strong as one would expect on the basis of pre vious speculative literature. However, the expected relationship between upward mobility and long-distance moves did not materialize. VI. Residential Mobility and Father of Head1s Occupational SES Introduction As a result of a perusal of available literature, not one research study systematically linking residential moves to inter generational mobility was found. Our hypothesis is that there will be differences in choice, planned, and observed residential mobility rates of sons by the occupational SES of fathers and for those who are intergenera- tionally occupationally upwardly mobile. Furthermore, a hypothesis is advanced that retrospective residential moves and long-distance moves will be differentiated by intergenerational occupational changes. Prospective and Retrospective Residential Mobility and Father of Head of Household's Occupational SES Column 1 o f Table 29 shows th a t th e re are no la rg e r a te d if f e r ences when choice o f moving i s r e la te d to fa th e r o f head o f the house h o ld 's occupational SES. P o te n tia l m o b ility as expressed in choice i s 15k evidently not related to inter generational SES factors. However, as we have seen, intragenerational mobility is somewhat related to choice in residential moves. P lans fo r moving when re la te d to th e fa th e r o f head o f household's occupational SES in d ic a te s a sim ila r p a tte rn to th a t when only the head o f the household’s occupational SES was considered. As In d icated in column 2 o f Table 29, the h ig h e st r a te o f planned m o b ility was found in th e category w ith sons who had a low SES f a th e r. The remain ing r a te s are sim ila r in re sp e c t to planned moves and in d ic a te th a t th ese in te rg e n e ra tio n a l fa c to rs a re not p a rtic u la rly s ig n ific a n t in th e p re d ic tio n o f p lan s fo r moving. The th ir d column o f Table 29 shows th a t th e h ig h est r a t e of ob served m o b ility was found fo r sons w ith fa th e rs in the high-m iddle occupational SES category, although th e low SES group had a m o b ility r a te approxim ating th a t o f the high-m iddle stratu m . An in term ed iate r a te was recorded fo r th e low-middle SES and th e low est r a te was found fo r the high SES. The r e s u lt o f these comparisons in choice, planned, and observed m o b ility r a te s by f a th e r 's SES a re very sim ila r to those when the s o n 's SES a t various p o in ts in time was u tiliz e d as a departure p o in t. The conclusion appears to be inescable th a t th e lower SES groups are more lik e ly to choose, p la n , and a c tu a lly move than are the upper SES groups. A hypothesis was advanced th a t re tro sp e c tiv e r e s id e n tia l m o b ility and lo n g -d istan ce moves would be d iffe r e n tia te d by in te rg e n e ra tio n a l occu pational SES. The re s u lts o f an a n aly sis o f re tro sp e c tiv e 155 Table 29 - R ates of P ro sp ectiv e and R etro sp ectiv e R e sid e n tia l M obility and Father o f Head of H ousehold's O ccupational SES* Prospective Retrospective Father's Occupational SES Choice (1) Planned (2) Observed (3) Overall (M Long-Distance (5) N Lour U w l 32.7 2U.7 25.3 3.U ( 388) L-Middle U3.5 28.0 21.8 22.3 3 .6 (193) H-Middle U6.5 28.2 25.9 17.6 5 .3 (170) High 38.1 27.1 16.1 18.7 5 .2 (155) Overall Rate li3.U 29.9 22.8 22.0 U .l (906) -ttftates are per 100 156 r e s id e n tia l m o b ility a re shown i n column U o f Table 29* In a comparison o f re tro sp e c tiv e w ith p ro sp ectiv e m o b ility , the c o n siste n c ie s are note worthy. The only divergence o f any siz e i s in the high-m iddle SES group where th e re tro sp e c tiv e m o b ility r a t e was 1 7 .6 compared to the observed m o b ility r a te o f 2$.9. The o v e ra ll m o b ility ra te s fo r r e tr o sp ectiv e and p ro sp ectiv e m o b ility were 22.0 and 22.8, re sp e c tiv e ly . Large r a te d iffe re n c e s were found in re sp e c t to fa th e r o f head o f household’s occupational SES and sons* lo n g -d ista n c e m o b ility r a te . As in d ic a te d in column 5 of Table 29, th e h ig h est r a te o f long distan ce moves was found in th e category which contained fa th e rs w ith a high-m iddle SES. The next h ig h e st r a te o f lo n g -d istan ce moves was found in the high SES category. The two low SES categ o ries had the low est r a te s o f lo n g -d istan ce moves. In comparison w ith the r e s u lts o f th e in tra g e n e ra tio n a l m obility a n a ly sis, th ese p a rtic u la r fin d in g s suggest th a t in te rg e n e ra tio n a l m o b ility may be a more in f lu e n tia l fa c to r in lon g -d istan ce moves than career m o b ility . Summary No major d iffe re n c e s were found by in te rg e n e ra tio n a l occupational SES in re sp e c t to choice and planned moves. However, alm ost h a lf of the pro sp ectiv e movers had fa th e rs from th e low SES in c o n tra st to Ul p e rc en t o f nonmovers. The d iffe re n c e s in th is category and o th ers are o f such magnitude th a t th e hypothesis o f in te rg e n e ra tio n a l in fluences upon r e s id e n tia l m o b ility can be accepted only te n ta tiv e ly and only fo r observed m o b ility and not f o r choice or p lan s. On the other handy the findings concerning retrospective local and long distance moves indicates that intergenerational mobility may be a more influential factor in long-distance moves than career mobility. i The hypothesis that there would be differences in choice and planned residential mobility by intergenerational SES has been found to be wanting. However, there were observed differences of a great enough magnitude in prospective residential mobility to suggest that this hypothesis is a tenable one. Intergenerational comparisons re sulted in the unexpected finding that intergenerational occupational mobility may be more influential in long-distance moves than career mobility. VII. Residential Mobility and Intergenerational Mobility Introduction The analysis presented below tests the hypothesis that there will be differences in choice, planned, and prospective residential mo bility rates by intergenerational occupational mobility experiences. Specifically, it is hypothesized that the upwardly mobile are more likely to have higher rates of residential moves than those who are downwardly mobile or who have remained relatively stationary, occupa tionally speaking. In addition, a hypothesis that retrospective residential moves and long-distance mobility will be differentiated by intergenerational occupational changes is tested. Table 30 - B ates o f P ro sp ectiv e and R etro sp ectiv e R e sid e n tia l M obility and In te rg e n e ra tio n a l O ccupational M o b ility 4 P ro sp ectiv e____________ R e tro sp ec tiv e In te rg e n e ra tio n a l M obility Choice Planned Observed O verall Long-Distance (1) (2) (3) (10 (5) N S ta tio n a ry 1|2.5 2 8 .8 2U.0 23.9 3.U (292) Upwardly Mobile Uli.U 29.2 20.^ 18.5 1 .7 (356) Downwardly Mobile L5.1 28.7 18.0 17.2 U .l (122) O verall R ate U3.8 29.0 21. h 20.U 2.7 (770) -BRates are per 100* 159 Prospective and R etrospective R e sid e n tia l M obility and In terg en era tio n a l O ccupational M obility Column 1 o f Table 30 in d ic a te s th e choice m o b ility r a te s of th e panel by in te rg e n e ra tio n a l occupational m o b ility ex p erien ces. The recorded d iffe re n c e s are r a th e r sm all and show th a t in te rg e n e ra tio n a l m o b ility , or la c k th e re o f, has l i t t l e in flu en ce upon the expression of choice m o b ility . Column 2 o f the same ta b le shows th a t planned, as w ell as choice m o b ility , d iffe re n c e s a re very sm all. However, la rg e r d iffe re n c e s appear in column 3 which re p o rts the a c tu a l observed mo b i l i t y experience of th is p a n e l. The h ig h e st r a t e o f 2U.0 was ob served fo r those who were in te rg e n e ra tio n a lly 3ta b le ; the low est r a te of 18.0 was recorded fo r the downwardly m obile. The upwardly mobile had an interm ediate ra te of 20.5. The d iffe re n c e s between c ateg o ries are r e la tiv e ly sm all. Our conclusion i s th a t in te rg e n e ra tio n a l occu p a tio n a l m obility in flu en ces upon r e s id e n tia l m o b ility r a te s are in s ig n ific a n t. R etro sp ectiv e r e s id e n tia l m o b ility r a t e s and lo n g -d ista n ce mo b i l i t y r a te s are presented in columns U and 5 o f Table 30. In a com p a riso n of pro sp ectiv e m o b ility ra te s and re tro sp e c tiv e re s id e n tia l m o b ility , the o v e ra ll r a te s o f 2 0 .U fo r re tro s p e c tiv e and 21.U fo r observed m o b ility are very s im ila r. W ithin in te rg e n e ra tio n a l m o b ility c a te g o rie s the r a te s a lso are comparable, although in every case th e re tro sp e c tiv e r a te s are s lig h tly le s s th an th e observed r a t e s . The s ta tio n a ry had the h ig h e st re tro s p e c tiv e r e s id e n tia l m o b ility r a te o f 23.9 w hile the downwardly and upwardly mobile had r e la tiv e ly sim ila r r a te s o f 17.2 and 18.5, re s p e c tiv e ly . The d iffe re n c e s are o f l6o such a magnitude th a t any g e n e ra liz a tio n based upon them must be view ed w ith a high degree of t e n ta tiv ity . —------- The lo n g -d istan ce m o b ility r a t e s , however, are such th a t th ere i s d e fin ite suggestion of in te rg e n e ra tio n a l occupational m o b ility d if - f e r e n tia ls in o p eratio n . The low est r a te o f 1 .7 o f lo n g -d istan ce moves was recorded fo r th e upwardly m obile. This r e s u l t , of course, i s con tr a r y to our hypothesis. The in te rg e n e ra tio n a lly sta b le had a r a te of 3.U. Our hypothesis was n o t only found to be wanting b u t a com pletely opposite fin d in g was th e r e s u l t of our a n a ly s is . Summary Conclusions reached on th e b a sis o f th is a n a ly sis a re th a t i n te r g en eratio n al occupational m o b ility in flu en ces upon re s id e n tia l m o b ility may have an influence upon lo n g -d istan ce m o b ility ra te s b u t not in the d ire c tio n hypothesized. I n f a c t, a contrary hypothesis appears to be in o rd e r, one which would assume th a t th e downwardly mobile would have h ig h er r a te s o f lo n g -d istan ce m obility. V III. Summary T his chapter i ll u s t r a te d the re la tio n sh ip o f r e s id e n tia l moves to career and in te rg e n e ra tio n a l m o b ility . The re la tio n s h ip between choice, p la n s, and p rospective m o b ility and head o f household's occupational SES a t tim e o f interview in 1961 in between 1950 and 1961 and in 1950 were examined. I n a d d itio n , th e r e s id e n tia l m o b ility c r ite r io n measures were r e la te d to occupational career p a tte rn s . An a n a ly sis of l6l th e re la tio n s h ip o f f a th e r s ' SES and in te rg e n e ra tio n a l occupational n o b ility to r e s id e n tia l moves of sons was a lso undertaken and rep o rte d i n t h is chapter* Hypotheses concerning th e re la tio n sh ip o f choice* plans* and observed r e s id e n tia l m o b ility to th e head o f household's occupational SES a t d if f e r e n t time p e rio d s re s u lte d in v a rie d fin d in g s . The r e s u lts o f th e analyses fo r head o f household's in between 19S>0 and 1961 occupational SES and choice* plans* and p ro sp ectiv e m obility were i n c o n tra st to the fin d in g s concerning c u rren t occupational SES. There was a stro n g tendency fo r choice* planned* observed moves* and re tro s p e c tiv e moves to have been made by those in th e lower SES s t r a ta . S im ilar fin d in g s were found fo r the 1950 occupational SES. The r a te s o f those who chose* planned* and a c tu a lly c a rrie d o u t r e s id e n tia l moves were higher in the lower S E S .strata th an th a t uppermost SES category. These d ata in d ic a te t h a t an upwardly mobile c a re e r p a tte rn i s r e la te d to th e expression o f choice and plans fo r r e s id e n tia l moves. On th e o th er hand* these expressions are n o t c a rrie d o u t in observed be havior inasmuch a s th is re la tio n s h ip dim inishes when a c tu a l prospective r e s id e n tia l m o b ility i s taken in to account. Ho profound d iffe re n c e s were found in re sp e c t to th e f a th e r s ' SES and th e expression o f sons choice and planned r e s id e n tia l m o b ility . The d iffe re n c e s were of such a magnitude to suggest t h a t f a th e r s ' SE S. in flu e n ce upon th e sons' r e s id e n tia l m o b ility choice and plans i s not very im portant. However* d iffe re n c e s were found in re s p e c t to observed r e s id e n tia l m obility* although the r e s u lts were co n trary to th a t hypo th e s iz e d . 162 The a n aly sis of re tro sp e c tiv e r e s id e n tia l m o b ility re s u lte d in e s s e n tia lly the same fin d in g s as fo r p ro sp ectiv e r e s id e n tia l m o b ility . S everal flu c tu a tio n s , however, occurred in the high-m iddle SES cate gory. I n each case where th ere was a f a ir - s iz e d d iffe re n c e between re tro sp e c tiv e and p ro sp ectiv e r a te s , th e re tro sp e c tiv e r a t e s were low e r . This may be a r e s u l t o f r e c a ll e rro r or fo r o th er unexplained rea so n s. One d ifferen c e was found where the observed r a te was higher than th e re tro sp e c tiv e r a te and t h is was in th e low- id d le SES group when an a n aly sis was undertaken by head of h o u se h o ld s c u rre n t SES. The a n a ly sis of re tro sp e c tiv e lo c a l and lo n g -d istan ce moves re s u lte d in the discovery th a t only four lo n g -d istan ce moves were re la te d to upward m o b ility . This did n o t equal th e lo n g -d istan ce m obili ty moves recorded fo r those w ith s ta tio n a ry c aree r p a tte rn s and i t i s an extrem ely small p ro p o rtio n of th e t o ta l number of a c tu a l moves ob served fo r t h is panel. The expected re la tio n s h ip between upward mo b i l i t y and lo n g -d istan ce moves did n o t m a te ria liz e and t h is hypothesis must be re je c te d . In summary of the c h ap ter, th e re are ev id en t lin k s between occu p a tio n a l m o b ility , both c aree r and in te rg e n e ra tio n a l, and r e s id e n tia l moves; however, the connection i s n o t as strong as one would expect from th e l ite r a tu r e upon th e su b je c t. I t i s p la u s ib le th a t the r e la tio n s h ip i s not as strong in th is p a rtic u la r a re a a t t h i s p a rtic u la r tim e in comparison w ith o th er areas and a t o th er time p e rio d s . How e v e r, the p o s s ib ility a lso e x is ts th a t previous w rite rs have o v e rstated th e ir case. T his l a t t e r a lte rn a tiv e i s the one th a t we would accep t. CHAPTER VII O CC U PA TIO N A L C A R EER PATTHINS, SO C IO E C O M G K L C STATUS A N D PROSPECTIVE A N D RETROSPECTIVE RESIDENTIAL MOBILITY I . In tro d o ctlo n T his chapter breaks In to fu rth e r components th e re la tio n s h ip of occupational c aree r p a tte rn s and socioeconomic s ta tu s to p ro sp ectiv e r e s id e n tia l m o b ility and re tro s p e c tiv e lo c a l and lo n g -d ista n ce m obili t y . A look i s taken a t c a re e r p a tte rn s by head o f household's occupa tio n a l le v e l as o f June 1961. A fu rth e r a n a ly sis i s undertaken hold ing occupational c aree r p a tte rn s co n stan t and analysing p ro sp ectiv e and re tro s p e c tiv e r e s id e n tia l m o b ility and i t s connection t o .1961 SES* F u rth e r c o n tro l i s c a rrie d o u t by holding occupational c a re e r p a tte rn s co n stan t in an a n a ly sis o f re tro s p e c tiv e lo n g -d ista n ce moves w ith in 1961 SES le v e ls , I I . O ccupational C areer P a tte rn s and 1961 ~SB5 T ables 31 and 32 i l l u s t r a t e th e d is trib u tio n o f occupational c a re e r p a tte rn s by head o f household' 3 SES as o f June, 1961. The p er centage o f s ta tio n a ry c aree r p a tte rn s was 67*9, The g re a te s t d is p a rity b y SES w ith in th e s ta tio n a ry career p a tte r n was found between sons in th e h ig h est and those in th e low-middle SES w ith percentages o f 31.9 and 18,1, re s p e c tiv e ly . The next to h ig h est r a te o f s ta tio n a ry career l6i|. p a tte rn s was in the low SES category w hile th e next to low est p e r c e n ta g e was in the high-m iddle stratu m . S lig h tly over 21 p e r cent were upwardly m obile. C o n tro llin g by SES, th e upwardly m obile percentages were r e s tr ic te d to th ree c a te g ories w ith no p o s s ib ility of sons being in th e low est 1961 SES group and having a downwardly mobile c aree r p a ttern s,T h e percentages fo r the low-m iddle, high-m iddle, and h ig h est SES categ o ries were 32.8, 28.2, and 3 9 .0 , re s p e c tiv e ly . The o v e ra ll percentage o f downward m o b ility was 6 .8 . The h ig h est percentage o f downward m o b ility o f U2.9 was found in th e low SES group. The next to h ig h est percentage was in th e low-middle SES group and the low est recorded in the high-m iddle SES category. As a r e s u lt o f the c la s s if ic a tio n p ro ce ss, th e percentage fo r th e high SES was se ro . The flu c tu a tin g m o b ility fig u re s a re based upon a sm all N and the r e s u lts should be accepted w ith 3ome c au tio n . The h ig h est percentage o f flu c tu a tin g career p a tte rn s was found in th e high-m iddle SES group w ith the low est stratum being in term ed iate to th e high-m iddle SES category and th e low-middle and high SES. In summary, i t appears th a t th e re -are la rg e d iffe re n c e s i n occu p a tio n a l career p a tte rn s by 1961 SES and th a t these d iffe re n c e s do not show a c o n siste n t p a tte rn . The d iffe re n c e s , however, a re of such mag nitu d e to suggest some fa c to rs o th er than chance are i n o p eratio n . 165 Table 31 - O ccupational Career P a tte rn s and Head of Household's 1961 O ccupational SES Occupational Career P a tte rn 1961 O ccupational SES S ta tio n a ry Upwardly Mobile Downwardly Mobile F lu ctu atin g Low 157 * 2U 8 L-MLddle 101 58 19 5 H-Middle 122 50 13 11 High 178 69 # 7 T otal 558 177 56 31 ■ K A s a r e s u l t o f th e c la s s if ic a tio n p ro cess, th ese c e lls must be z ero . 1 6 6 Table 32 - O ccupational C areer P a tte rn s and Head o f H ousehold's l ? 6 l O ccupational SES (P ercentages) O ccupational C areer P a tte rn 1961 O ccupational SES S ta tio n a ry Upwardly Mobile Downwardly Mobile F lu c tu a tin g N Low 28.1# * U2.9* 25.8* (189) L-MLddle 1 8 .1 32.855 33.9 16.1 (183) H-Middle 21.9 28.2 23.2 25.5 (196) High 31.9 39.0 * 22.6 (25U) T o tal 100.0* 100.0* 100.0* 100.0* ( 822) *As a r e s u lt o f the c la s s if ic a tio n p ro cess, th e se c e lls must be a e ro . 167 I I I . O ccupational Career P a tte rn s , 1961 SES, and R etro sp ectiv e and P rospective R e sid e n tia l M ooility Prospective Residential Mobility F urther s p e c ific a tio n o f occupational career p a tte rn s and th e ir linkage w ith observed r e s id e n tia l m o b ility was made by holding con s ta n t career p a tte rn s and te s tin g the re la tio n s h ip between 1961 SES and observed m o b ility . The r e s u lts o f th is a n a ly sis are shown in Tables 33 and 3h• The upwardly and downwardly mobile and th o se w ith a flu c tu a tin g career p a tte rn had n e a rly equal o v e ra ll p rospective r e s id e n tia l mo b i l i t y r a te s of 2 7 .7 , 28.6, and 28.1, re s p e c tiv e ly . On th e other hand, th e r a te fo r th e o ccu p atio n ally s ta tio n a ry was 1 8 .8 . I t appears th a t any type o f mobile career p a tte r n i s a sso c iated w ith higher r e s i d e n tia l m o b ility r a t e s . When 1961 bead o f household's SES was c o n tro lle d w ith in occupa tio n a lly c aree r p a tte rn groups, in th e occupationally s ta b le group the highest r e s id e n tia l m o b ility r a te o f 26.8 was found in th e low SES. The low-middle and high SES c a te g o rie s had r a te s of H u8 and lU.6 which were the low est recorded. The high-m iddle SES group had an in term ed iate r a te o f 18. 0 . No upward m o b ility c a re e r p a tte r n was p o ssib le fo r anyone c la s s i fie d in th e low SES category as of 1961. For those c a te g o rie s in which a c aree r p a tte r n o f upward m o b ility was p o s s ib le , th e h ig h est r a te of r e s id e n tia l moves o f 3U.5 was recorded in th e low est p o ssib le SES category, or th e low-middle group, fo r th e h ig h est r a te recorded fo r a l l c la s s if ic a tio n s when SES was held c o n stan t. The high-m iddle Table 33 - P rospective R e sid e n tia l M obility by Career P a tte rn s and 1961 SES* Career P a tte rn s 1961 Upwardly Downwardly O ccupational S ta tio n a ry Mobile Mobile F lu ctu atin g SES M N M M N M M N M M N M Low U 2 115 ** 8 16 k 10 L-Middle 15 86 20 38 6 13 H-Middle 22 100 9 Ul 2 11 5 13 High 26 152 20 1 * 9 - S B * - - S B * - T otal 105 1*53 U9 128 16 l * o 9 23 ■ Mover j N M “ Nonmover. **As a r e s u lt of th e c la s s if ic a tio n p ro cess, th e N 's fo r these c a te g o rie s must be zero. 169 Table 3U - R ates of Prospective R e sid e n tia l M obility by Career P a tte rn s and 1961 S E S * * Career P a tte rn s 1961 Occupational SES S tatio n ary Upwardly Mobile Downwardly Mobile F lu ctu atin g N Low 26.8 * 33.3 28.9 (189) L-Middle 1U.8 3U.5 31.6 (183) H-Mlddle 18.0 18,0 15.U 27.8 (196) High 1U.6. 29.0 * (25U) O verall S ate 18.8 27.7 28.6 28.1 (822) *As a r e s u lt of the c la s s ific a tio n p ro cess, th e r a te s fo r these categ o ries must be zero. 170 group had an interm ediate r a te of 18.0 which la th e same r a te recorded fo r t h i s category among the occupationally s ta b le . The high SES: stratum had a ra te o f 29.0. In th e downwardly mobile c la ss ific a tio n * high r a te s were recorded fo r th e two low est SES s tr a ta . The highest p o ssib le category fo r th is group was th e high-middle SES which had a ra te o f l£»U* or a r a te comparable to th a t o f th e high-middle SES cate gory fo r those who were occupationally sta b le and upwardly m obile. The data fo r the flu c tu a tin g career p a tte rn was dichotomized in to low and high SES groups. The m o b ility r a te s were 28.5 fo r th e low and 27.8 fo r th e high SES group. R etrospective R e sid e n tia l M obility An a n aly sis sim ila r to th a t fo r observed prospective r e s id e n tia l m obility was undertaken w ith re tro sp e c tiv e r e s id e n tia l m o b ility . The r e s u lts o f th is a n aly sis are shown i n Tables 3$ end 36. D ifferences in re tro sp e c tiv e r e s id e n tia l m obility r a te s w ithin the sta tio n a ry career p a tte rn category are g re a te s t between the low est 1961 SES group and th e high-middle category w ith r a te s o f 2U.2 and 12.3, re sp e c tiv e ly . The low-middle and h ig h est 1961 SES c ateg o ries r a te of 16.8 was interm ediate to th e low est and h ig h est r a te s . W ithin the up wardly mobile group* th e low est category i s excluded from a n aly sis on the b a s is th a t no one could p o ssib ly be upwardly mobile as o f A p ril 1* 1961* and sim ultaneously be in the low est SES category. W ithin the th ree categ o ries by which th e upwardly mobile were c la ssifie d * th e h ig h est r a te o f re s id e n tia l m obility was in the low-middle* or low est p o ssib le * group. An interm ediate r a te o f 26.1 was found in the highest SES group* w ith a r a te o f 2h.O being found in th e high-middle stratum . 171 Table 3$ - R etrospective R e sid e n tia l M obility by Career P a tte rn s and 1961 SES* Career P a tte rn s 1961 Upwardly Downwardly Occupational S ta tio n a ry Mobile Mobile F lu ctu atin g SES M N M M N M M N M M N M Low 38 119 ** ** 6 18 3 10 L-Middle 17 8U 19 39 3 16 H-Middle 15 107 12 38 1 12 6 12 Sigh 30 1U8 18 & ** ** T otal 100 U58 k9 128 10 U6 9 22 " Hover; H M ■ Nonmover. « A s a r e s u l t o f c la s s if ic a tio n p ro ce ss, th e N’s fo r these c ateg o ries e a s t be zero* Table 3 6 - R ates o f R etro sp ectiv e R e sid e n tia l M obility by Career P a tte rn s and 1961 SES 172 Career P a tte rn s 1961 O ccupational SES S ta tio n a ry ■ # Upwardly Mobile Downwardly Mobile F lu c tu a tin g H Low 2U.2 * 25.0 23.1 (189) L-Middle 1 6 .8 23.8 15.8 (183) H-Middle 1 2 .3 2l|.0 7.7 33.3 (196) High 1 6 .8 26.1 * (25b) O verall R ate 17.9 27.7 27.8 29.0 (822) *As a r e s u l t o f th e c la s s if ic a tio n p ro c e ss, th e r a te s fo r these c a te g o rie s amst be se ro . 1 7 3 As w ith th e m o b ility ra te s fo r the s ta tio n a ry and upwardly m obile, th e h ig h est re s id e n tia l m o b ility r a te in the downwardly mobile group n s recorded in th e low est p o ssib le SES, in th is case al3o th e low est 385 category* The low est m o b ility r a te was found in th e high-m iddle SES group w ith th e low-middle SES category having an in term ed iate r a t e . As a r e s u l t o f th e c la s s if ic a tio n p ro cess, th e r a te s fo r th e h ig h est SES group had to be zero* As a r e s u l t o f th e sm all N, th e m o b ility r a t e s w ith in th e flu c tu a tin g career p a tte rn category were dichotcndaed in to low and high c a te g o rie s . The m o b ility r a te in the low est groigj was 23»1 in c o n tra st to a m o b ility r a te of 33*3 i n th e h ig h est group. T his i s th e only career p a tte rn in which th e re were higher r a te s o f r e s id e n tia l moves in th e upper SES categ o ries when compared to th e low e r SES groups. While th e re were s lig h t d iffe re n c e s in th e r e s u lts p resen ted i n t h i s s e c tio n by the u tiliz a tio n o f re tro sp e c tiv e zep a r ts o f resident!*]!, m o b ility in c o n tra st to observed r e s id e n tia l moves, th e conclusion i s th a t e ith e r may be used as e ffe c tiv e ly as th e o th er and th a t th e f in d ings w ill be highly s im ila r. A lso, i t appears th a t any type o f c aree r p a tte r n i s a sso c ia te d w ith higher r e s id e n tia l m o b ility r a te s th an those recorded fo r th e occupationally stab le* When c o n tro llin g fo r occupational career p a tte rn s , we may conclude th a t SES i s a r e la tiv e ly m inor fa c to r in r e s id e n tia l moves. The mayor fin d in g , th en i s in disagreem ent w ith most o f the l i t e r a t u r e which suggests th a t th e r e s id e n tia lly mobile are more lik e ly to be i n tb e 174 upper SES c a te g o rie s , and e s p e c ia lly those who have dem onstrated up ward m o b ility in th e ir occupational c a re e r. T his expected fin d in g was not observed in e ith e r the a n a ly sis o f p ro sp e ctiv e or re tro sp e c tiv e r e s id e n tia l m o b ility . The slight differences recorded by SES were counter to the hypo thesis; and with overall rates, the downwardly mobile and fluctuating career patterns evidenced as much geographic mobility as did the up wardly mobile. IV. O ccupational Career P a tte rn s , 1961 SES, and R etro sp ectiv e Local and Long-Distance M obility In a fu rth e r a n a ly sis o f th e in flu en ce o f occupational career p a tte rn s and 1961 occupational SES upon r e s id e n tia l m o b ility , retro sp e c tiv e geographic moves were dichotom ized in to lo c a l and lo n g -d istan ce components. As shown in T ables 37 and 38, a geographic m o b ility r a te o f 3 .it was recorded fo r th e o ccu p atio n ally nonmobile (s ta tio n a ry ), fo r th e h ig h est r a te o f in -m ig ratio n observed. The upwardly m obile's long d istan c e m o b ility r a te was 2 .2 and th e downwardly m o b ile's r a te was 1 .8 . Of th e nine movers who had flu c tu a tin g c a re e r p a tte rn s , a l l had moved w ith in the m etro p o litan are a. The h ig h est o v e ra ll lo n g -d ista n ce m o b ility r a te o f 3*4 was r e corded f o r the s ta tio n a ry c aree r p a tte r n . The next h ig h e st long d istan ce m o b ility r a te o f 2.2 was recorded by th e upwardly mobile group. The downwardly mobile had a lo n g -d ista n ce m o b ility r a te o f 1.8 compared to the 3.4 lo n g -d istan ce r a te o f the s ta tio n a ry . No long d istan ce moves were recorded fo r persons categ o rized a s having a 175 flu c tu a tin g career p a tte r n . These fin d in g s, o f course, are in c o n tra st to the expected re la tio n s h ip o f lo n g -d istan ce moves and occupational career p a tte rn s . W ithin the sta tio n a ry c a re e r p a tte r n , the h ig h est r a te of long d istan c e m o b ility o f 7 was found in th e low 1961 SES. The next h ig h est r a te of 3.U was recorded in th e high SES stratum . The low- m iddle and high-m iddle c a te g o rie s had in term ed iate r a te s o f 2.0 and 1 .6 , re s p e c tiv e ly . In an a n aly sis by 1961 SES w ith in the upwardly mobile group, th e h ig h est lo n g -d ista n ce m obility r a te o f 3.I4 was recorded in the low est p o ssib le category, or the low-middle SES. This m o b ility r a te i s higher th an th a t o f the s ta tio n a ry career p a tte rn group in th e low-middle SES category. On the o th er hand, w hile i t i s the h ig h est lo n g -d istan ce m o b ility r a te w ith in the upwardly mobile group, i t i s s lig h tly le s s th an h a lf th e ra te o f the low SES in th e s ta tio n a ry c aree r p a tte rn category. The high-m iddle and h ig h est SES c la s s if ic a tio n s had even lower r a te s of 2.0 and I .I 4 ., re s p e c tiv e ly . These r e s u lts c le a rly in d ic a te th a t i f in th e fu tu re much higher r a te s o f lo n g -d istan ce m obili t y are to be expected in the s ta tio n a ry career p a tte rn th an in the upwardly m obile, th e hypothesis concerning c aree r p a tte rn s and long d istan c e moves needs reform ulation. The number o f th e downwardly m obile who had moved precludes our emphasizing the r e s u lts o f an a n a ly sis by 1961 SES. As a r e s u lt o f th e c la s s if ic a tio n p ro ce ss, the r a te s in th e h ig h est SES category had to be z ero . On th e o th er hand, th e r a te s in th e low- and high-m iddle s tr a ta al30 had no recorded lo n g -d istan ce moves which o f course means a 176. lo n g -d istan ce m o b ility r a te o f zero. The low-middle category accounted fo r a l l of th e lon g -d istan ce moves by th e dovmiardly m obile; th e ra te of 5 .3 was th e next to h ig h est one recorded fo r a l l c a te g o rie s . H ow ever ^ th is r a te was based upon a t o ta l o f one lo n g -d ista n ce move. In summary, the d e lin e a tio n o f re tro s p e c tiv e movers in to lo c a l and lo n g -d istan ce components re s u lte d in the fin d in g th a t a g re a te r p ro p o rtio n o f those who were o ccupationally s ta tio n a ry made long d istan c e moves than did th e upwardly or downwardly m obile. No long d ista n c e moves were made by persons w ith a flu c tu a tin g c aree r p a tte rn . Almost h a lf of th e lo n g -d istan ce movers in th e s ta tio n a ry c a te gory were from th e low SES category and the h ig h est r a t e o f long d istan c e moves w ith in th e sta tio n a ry career p a tte rn was observed in th is category. The next to th e h ig h est r a te was observed in th e high SES.. The lo n g -d istan ce m o b ility r a te fo r the upwardly mobile was le s s than th e ra te o f the o ccupationally s ta tio n a ry . W ithin th e upwardly mobile group th e highest lo n g -d istan ce m o b ility r a te was recorded in the low est p o ssib le SES stratu m , th e low-middle category. Only one lo n g -d istan ce move was observed w ith in th e downwardly mobile group and i t re s u lte d in th e next to h ig h est r a t e o f long d istan c e moves recorded by 196l SES su b -categ o ries w ith in occupational career p a tte rn s . The sm all N, however, re q u ire s th a t we view th is ra te w ith extreme caution . These d ata do in d ic a te th a t refo rm u latio n of hypotheses concerning c aree r p a tte rn s and r e s id e n tia l moves i s in o rd er. Table 37 - R etrospective Long-Distance Moves, Career P a tte rn s , and 1961 SES? Career P a tte rn s 1961 Upwardly Downwardly O ccupational S ta tio n a ry Mobile Mobile F lu ctu atin g SES L ID L L D L L D L LD Low 29 9 ** ** 6 3 - L-Middle 15 2 17 2 2 1 H-Kiddle 13 2 11 1 1 6 _ High 2k 6 17 1 ** ** T otal 81 19 k$ k 9 1 9 - *L “ Local Move; ID » Long-Distance Move. **As a r e s u lt o f th e c la s s if ic a tio n p ro cess, th e N 's fo r th ese c ateg o ries must be z ero . Table 3 8 - R ates o f R etrospective Long-Distance Geographic M obility by O ccupational Career P a tte rn and 1961 SES- C areer P a tte rn s 1961 Upwardly Downwardly O ccupational S ta tio n a ry Mobile Mobile* F lu ctu atin g N SES Low 5 .7 *# 0.0 (189) L-Middle 2.0 3.U 5.3 0 .0 (183) H-Middle 1 .6 2.0 0.0 ( 196) High 3.U l.U ** (25U) O verall Rate 3.U 2.2 1.8 Q.O ( 822) *The r a te s i n th e se two c a te g o rie s must be viewed w ith a g re a t d eal o f cau tio n inasmuch as they a re based upon extrem ely sm all N 's. **As a r e s u l t o f th e c la s s if ic a tio n process* the r a te s fo r these c a te g o rie s must be z ero . 179 V. Summary This chapter breaks in to fu rth e r components the re la tio n s h ip of occupational career p a tte rn s and socioeconomic s ta tu s to p ro sp ectiv e and re tro s p e c tiv e geographic m o b ility . I n addition^ , career' p a tte rn s a re divided in to occupational SES le v e ls as of 1961 and p rospective and re tro sp e c tiv e r e s id e n tia l moves and re tro sp e c tiv e lo n g -d istan ce m o b ility are analyzed. There were f a i r l y la rg e d iffe re n c e s in occupational career p a tte rn s th a t appeared in our a n a ly sis of occupational career p a tte rn s by 1961 SES. The d iffe re n c e s th a t occurred showed no c o n siste n t p a tte rn b u t we concluded th a t th ese flu c tu a tio n s were of such magnitude to suggest th a t fa c to rs o th er than chance were in o p e ra tio n . For both p ro sp ectiv e and re tro sp e c tiv e moves, when c o n tro llin g fo r occupational career p a tte rn , we te n ta tiv e ly concluded th a t SES i s a r e la tiv e ly minor f a c to r . This fin d in g , however, i s in disagreem ent w ith most o f th e sp e cu la tiv e l it e r a t u r e which suggests th a t th e r e s id e n tia lly mobile a re more lik e ly to be in th e upper SES c a te g o rie s, and e sp e c ia lly those who have dem onstrated upward m o b ility in th e ir occupational c a re e rs. This expected fin d in g was not observed. The d e lin e a tio n of re tro s p e c tiv e movers in to lo c a l and long d istan ce components re s u lte d in the fin d in g s th a t a g re a te r r a te of those who were o ccu p atio n ally s ta tio n a ry made lo n g -d istan ce moves than d id the upwardly or downwardly m obile. No long-dis.tance moves were made by persons w ith a flu c tu a tin g career p a tte rn . The h ig h est r a te s o f lo n g -d istan ce geographic m o b ility were found in th e low est SES c a te g o rie s, except in the downwardly mobile group where the only 180 lo n g -d istan ce move made was by a person in th e low-middle category. The unexpected r e s u lts o f th is e m p iric a lly based resea rch could be a r e s u lt o f Los Angeles having an a ty p ic a l m obility experience.^1 T h is, however, rem ains to be dem onstrated. I f Los Angeles i s ty p ic a l, our r e s u lts suggest th a t refo rm u latio n o f hypotheses concerning career p a tte rn s and r e s id e n tia l moves a re in o rd e r. 1 I t was pointed out in Chapter I I I th a t th e re has been some d is cussion o f whether or not Los Angeles i s an unique urban development or a p rototype o f fu tu re m etropolitan development. For expression of th ese view s, see: B everly Duncan, Georges Sabagh, and Maurice D. Van A rsdol, J r . , "P a tte rn s o f C ity Growth," American Jo u rn al o f Sociology, 5U (January, 1962), pp. Ul8-1*29; Cynthia Lindsay, The n a tiv e s Are R e stle ss (P h ila d e lp h ia , Pennsylvania: L ip p in co tt, I n c ., 1960) ; and A rthur Grey, J r . , "Los Angeles Urban P ro to ty p e," Land Economics, 3 f> (August, 1959), pp. 232-21*2. There are some In d ic a tio n s th a t th e Los Angeles experience o f m igration (which, of co u rse, in clu d es only our lo n g -d istan ce moves) i s somewhat d iffe re n t th a n th a t experienced by o th e r c i t i e s . For example, th ere are re c e n t d a ta which in d ic a te th a t th e w hite p o p u latio n o f Los Angeles experience o f out-m igration i s o f a d iffe r e n t s o rt th an th a t o f o th er la rg e American c i t i e s . (K arl E. Taeuber and Alma F. Taeuber, "White M igration and Socio-Economic D ifferences Between C itie s and Suburbs," American S o cio lo g ical Review, 29 (O ctober, 1961* ), pp. 718-729). In a d d itio n San Francisco and Los Angeles were found to have more job m obility th an Chicago, P h ila d e l p h ia , S t. P a u l, or M ew Haven. (Seymour M . L ip s e t and Reinhard Bendix, S o cial M o b ility in In d u s tr ia l S o ciety (Berkeley and Los Angeles: U n iv ersity o f C a lifo rn ia P re ss, 1963), p . 11*9). The fin d in g s o f the above c ite d stu d ies must be held suspect in t h a t they may p o ssib ly be explained by the unusual c o n fig u ratio n o f p o l i t i c a l boundaries th a t make up American c i t i e s and to a la rg e e x ten t in flu en ces what i s la b e lle d as lo c a l and lo n g -d istan ce moves. On th e o th er hand, they a lso suggest th a t u n til fu rth e r stu d ie s are completed in o th er c i t i e s , we must consider Los Angeles as " ty p ic a l." v C H A P T i S i V U I INTEaSEBMmsaBEL aDBTLm, SOCIOECONOMIC STATUS A N D raOSPECOT® JH E5 MSTHOSPSCTI7E RESIDENTIAL MOBILITY L Infarodnction The relationafliniip off th e head o f ho u seh o ld 's in te rg e n e ra tio n a l occupational m oLality t o cuuLeut socioeconomic s ta tu s i s examined in t h i s c h ap ter. * 1 ^ tBae in flu e n c e o f in te rg e n e ra tio n a l occupational m o b ility and head off SnoEQehnLd's 1961 socioeconomic s ta tu s on r e tr o sp ectiv e and prospacitaLwe r e s id e n tia l n o b ility i s determ ined. In addi tio n , an a n a ly s is off re tro s p e c tiv e lo n g -d ista n c e geographic m o b ility i s undertaken. U . iM iegrgaaerational M o b ility and 19 61 SES Tables 3 9 & Q > th e re la tio n s h ip o f in te rg e n e ra tio n a l occu p a tio n a l m o b ility and le a d o f h o u seh o ld 's 1961 SES. The h ig h est over a l l percentage off 2g&.2 was r ecorded f a r th e upwardly mobile group. A percentage o f 3 1 .9 off asocupational s t a b i l i t y between g en eratio n s was noted, and 1 5 .9 p e r ceraft ware downw a rd ly m obile. These d a ta , th en , in d ic a te th a t ^ j r t f c p ^ j a w w ^ i r - i i g - T i ml o ccu p atio n al upward m o b ility was ex p erien ced by alm ost fco G U f off th e Los Angeles SM SA sam ple. I t a lso in d ic a te s t h a t th e re mas a f a i r amount off downward m o b ility , although only about o n e -tM rd th e aw.mnt off upward m o b ility . 182 Table 39 - In te rg e n e ra tio n a l M obility by 1961 SES In te rg e n e ra tio n a l M obility 1961 O ccupational SES S ta tio n a ry Upwardly Mobile Downwardly Mobile N Low 125 * 51 176 L-Kiddle** 7h U6 165 H-Middle h6 117 25 188 High 76 165 * 2I 4 I T otal 292 356 122 770 *As a r e s u lt o f the c la s s if ic a tio n p ro cess, the N 's fo r these categ o ries must be zero. **L-Middle • Low-Middle; H-Middle - High-Middle. Table I4 O - Percentage o f In te rg e n e ra tio n a l M obility by 1961 S E S . 183 In te rg e n e ra tio n a l M obility 1961 Occupational SES S ta tio n a ry Upwardly Mobile Downwardly Mobile N Low U2.8* * 111. 8 5 6 176 L-Middle 15.U 20. 8 5 6 37.7 165 H-Middle 15.8 32.9 20.5 188 High 26.0 U 6.3 * 2 1 a T otal 200.056 100.056 100.0£ 770 *As a r e s u lt o f th e c la s s if ic a tio n p ro ce ss, th e percentages fo r these categ o ries must be zero* 1& + When 1961 SES was c o n tro lle d fo r those persons who were occupa tio n a lly s ta tio n a ry , th e h ig h est percentage o f in te rg e n e ra tio n a l s t a b i l i t y o f 1*2.8 was found in th e low SES. The n ex t h ig h est p e rc e n tage o f 26.0 was recorded in th e high SES category; b o th o f th ese percen tag es were s u b s ta n tia lly higher th an f o r th e two middle SES groups. The h ig h e st p ro p o rtio n o f upward m o b ility was evidenced by those who were in th e high SES group i n 1961; th e p ercentage was 1*6.3 com pared to th e low o f 20.8 found in th e low est p o ss ib le SES, o r th e low- middle categ o ry , and a percentage o f 32.9 was found i n th e high-m iddle stratu m . The h ig h est p ro p o rtio n o f downward m o b ility by 1961 SES was recorded in th e low est p o ss ib le group where ijl.8 p e r c en t were down w ardly m obile. T his, however, was only s lig h tly higher th an th e 37.7 p e r cen t o f th e low-middle SES who were downwardly m obile. There was a la rg e gap between th ese two low est SES c a te g o rie s and t h e ir p e r centages o f downward m o b ility when compared to th e high-m iddle SES stra tu m . I n summary, th e h ig h est o v e ra ll percentage o f in te rg e n e ra tio n a l o ccupational m o b ility was recorded fo r th e upwardly m obile group. S t a b il i ty between g en eratio n s was about f o u r - f if th s th a t o f upward m o b ility . The low est percentage wa3 discovered fo r th e downwardly m obile group which was about o n e -th ird th a t o f the upwardly m obile. When SES was c o n tro lle d , th e h ig h est percentage o f th o se who were in te rg e n e ra tio n a lly s ta b le was found in th e low SES categ o ry . An o p p o site r e s u l t was found fo r th o se who were in te rg e n e ra tio n a lly up w ardly m obile. The two h ig h est SES c a te g o rie s had higher percentages 185 th an the low est p o s s ib le s tr a tu s . The h ig h est percentages f o r th e downwardly mobile were recorded in th e two low est SSS c a te g o rie s when compared to the h ig h est p o s s ib le , or th e high-m iddle SES group. XIX. In te rg e n e ra tio n a l M obility, Head o f Household1 s 1961 O ccupational SES, and P rospective and ” R etro sp ectiv e R e sid e n tia l M obility In tro d u c tio n _ ------ S everal hypotheses are te s te d i n t h is se c tio n . On th e b a s is o f p rev io u sly c ite d re se a rc h , i t was hypothesized th a t th e intergenerar- . tio n a lly upwardly mobile would have a higher r e s id e n tia l m o b ility r a te th an would th e s ta tio n a ry or downwardly m obile. I n a d d itio n , i t wa3 hypothesized t h a t when c o n tro llin g fo r head o f household's 1961 o ccupational SES, th e upper SES categ o ries would have th e h ig h e st r a te s o f r e s id e n tia l m o b ility . These hypotheses a re expected to bold whether re tro s p e c tiv e or p ro sp ectiv e r e s id e n tia l m o b ility i s con sid e red . P rospective R e sid e n tia l M obility The r e s u lts o f te s tin g th e above hypotheses fo r p ro sp ectiv e r e s i d e n tia l m o b ility a re shown i n Tables Ul and U2. O verall m o b ility r a te s a re co n trary to th a t hypothesized w ith th e in te rg e n e ra tio n a lly s ta b le having the h ig h est r a t e o f 2U.2. The upwardly m obile had a r a te o f 20.5 which was interm ediate to the r a te o f th e s ta tio n a ry and th e downwardly m obiles' r a t e o f 1 8 .0 . When c o n tro llin g fo r head o f household's 1961 SSS in th e s ta tio n a ry group the high and th e low SES s t r a t a were somewhat d if f e re n tia te d 186 from th e two m iddle s t r a t a which had r a te s o f 2h»h and 23.9. The low SES categ o ry had a r e s id e n tia l n o b ility r a te o f 28.8 whereas the high SES categ o ry had a r a te o f 3 5 .8 . As were th e o v e ra ll r a t e s , these r e s u lts a re in o p p o sitio n to o ar h y p o th esis. W ithin th e upwardly m obile group, th e low est p o ss ib le SES, o r th e low-middle group, had th e h ig h est r e s id e n tia l m o b ility r a t e . T h is, of course, i s a lso c o n tra ry to o a r h y p o th esis. The high-m iddle stratum had a r a t e of 16.2 and th e high SES group had a r e s id e n tia l m o b ility r a te of 20.0. S im ila r fin d in g s to th e above, only s lig h tly more accen tu ated , were found fo r th e downwardly m obile. The h ig h e st r a te o f r e s id e n tia l m o b ility was recorded fo r th e low SES stratu m . The high-m iddle group had a r a te of 16.0 and th e lowHnidtile category had a r a te o f 10.9. These r e s u lts a lso are in c o n tra s t to our h y p o th esis. R etro sp ectiv e R e sid e n tia l M o b ility As in d ic a te d in T ables H3 and 1 |1 » o v e ra ll re tro s p e c tiv e m o b ility r a te s by in te rg e n e ra tio n a l o ccupational m o b ility were n o t as hypo th e siz e d . The h ig h est r a t e o f 2U.0 was recorded fo r th o se who were in te rg e n e ra tio n a lly s ta b le . The upwardly mobile had a r e s id e n tia l m o b ility r a te o f 18.8 which was o n ly s lig h tly higher th a n the down w ardly m obile who had a r e s id e n tia l m o b ility r a t e o f 1 7 .2 . These fin d in g s , of course, a re i n c o n tra s t to what was expected. When th e head of household's 1961 SES was c o n tro lle d , th e h ig h e st r a te s o f 28.0 and 31.1 o f r e s id e n tia l m o b ility w ith in th e in te rg e n e ra tio n a lly s ta b le group were found i n th e two low est SES c a te g o rie s 187 Table Ul - P rospective R e sid e n tia l M obility and I n te r g en eratio n al Occupational M obility and Head of Household* s 1961 Occu p a tio n a l SGS In te rg e n a ra tio n a l O ccupational M obility Head o f Household*s 1961 SES S ta tio n a ry M H M Inwardly Mobile M H M Downwardly Mobile M H M H Low 36 89 * * 13 38 176 L-Hiddle 11 3U 21 53 5 Ul 165 H-Middle 11 35 19 98 U 21 188 High 12 6U 33 132 * * 22 a T o tal 70 219 73 283 22 100 770 *As a r e s u lt o f the c la s s if ic a tio n p ro ce ss, th e N*s fo r th ese c a te g o rie s must be zero. - Mover; H M * ■ Nonmover. 188 Table I|2 - Rates o f Prospective R e sid e n tia l M obility and In te r- gen eratio n al O ccupational M obility and Head of Household*s 1961 Occupational SES** In te rg e n e ra tio n a l Occupational M obility Head o f Household1 s 1961 SES S ta tio n a ry Upwardly Mobile Downwardly Mobile N Loir 28.8 * 25.5 176 L-Klddle 2U.U 28.li 10.9 165 H — Middle 23.9 16.2 16.0 188 High 15.8 20.0 * 21*1 O verall Rate 2U.2 20.5 18.0 770 *As a re s u lt o f the c la s s if ic a tio n p ro cess, the r a te s fo r these categ o ries must be zero. « ® a te s are p er 100. 189 which were in c o n tra st to th e r a te s o f l£*2 and 1 8 .U recorded by the two h ig h est SES s t r a ta . In the in te rg e n e ra tio n a lly upwardly mobile group, th e h ig h est r a t e o f m o b ility of 21.2 was recorded in the high SES category. How e v e r, th e r a te s fo r the high-m iddle and low-middle c ateg o ries were o n ly s lig h tly le s s w ith r a te s of l $ . h and 18.9, re s p e c tiv e ly . As a r e s u l t o f the c la s s if ic a tio n procedure, th e r a te s fo r th e low est c a te gory were aero. The downwardly mobile e x h ib ited a d iff e r e n t p a tte rn from th a t of th e s ta tio n a ry and upwardly m obile. N early equal r a te s were observed fo r th e low est and h ig h est p o ssib le SES s t r a ta . These r a te s were 21.6 fo r th e low est and 20.0 fo r the h ig h est SES category. As w ith th e previous analyses p resen ted in th is re p o rt which con t r a s t s the r e s u lts of r e s id e n tia l m o b ility r a te s by re tro sp e c tiv e and p ro sp ectiv e techniques, th e r e s u lts of the a n a ly sis p resen ted i n th is se c tio n are such th a t, w ith a few r e la tiv e ly minor d e v ia tio n s, the r e s u l ts o f each of these measures may be used interchangeably. To summarize, the highest r a te s of r e s id e n tia l m o b ility were ex h ib ite d by th e in te rg e n e ra tio n a lly s ta b le w ith the upwardly mobile having a s lig h tly higher r a te than the downwardly m obile. When SES was c o n tro lle d , the h ig h est r a te s o f r e s id e n tia l m o b ility in th e s ta tio n a ry group were found in th e two low est SES c a te g o rie s. In th e upwardly and downwardly mobile groups, th e h ig h est r a te s were observed 190 Table U3 - R etro sp ectiv e R e sid e n tia l M obility and In te rg e n e ra tio n a l O ccupational M obility and Head of H ouseholds 1961 Occu p a tio n a l SES In te rg e n e ra tio n a l O ccupational M obility Head of Upwardly Downwardly N H ouseholds S ta tio n a ry Mobile Mobile 1961 SES M N M M N M M N M Low 35 90 * * 11 Uo 176 L-Middle 1k 31 lli 6o 5 ia 165 H-Middle . 7 39 18 99 5 20 188 High 1U 62 35 130 # # 2la T o tal 70 222 67 289 21 101 770 *As a r e s u lt o f the c la s s if ic a tio n p ro cess, the N S fo r these c a te g o rie s must be z ero . 191 Table 1 * 1 * - R ates o f R etrospective R e sid e n tia l M obility and In te r g en eratio n al O ccupational M obility and Head o f Household's 1961 Occupational SES In te rg e n e ra tio n a l O ccupational M obility Head of Household's 1961 SES S ta tio n a ry Upwardly Mobile Downwardly Mobile N Low 28.0 * 21.6 176 L-Middle 31.1 18.9 10.9 16$ H-Middle 15.2 15.U 20.0 188 High 18.U 21.2 * 21*1 O verall Rate 2l*.0 18.8 17.2 770 *As a r e s u l t of th e c la s s if ic a tio n p ro ce ss, th e r a te s f a r th e se c ateg o ries must be zero. 192 i n th e lo w est and h ig h e st p o ssib le SES s t r a t a w ith th e in term ed iate group in b o th in sta n c e s having a lower r a t e . IV. In te rg e n e ra tio n a l M o b ility , Head o f Household’s 1961 O ccupational SES and R etro sp ectiv e Long-Distance R e sid e n tia l M obility The hypotheses te s te d in th is s e c tio n are s im ila r to those con cern in g r e s id e n tia l moves in g e n e ra l. A hypothesis was made th a t the in te rg e n e ra tio n a lly upwardly mobile would have a higher lo n g -d ista n ce r e s id e n tia l m o b ility r a te than th e s ta tio n a ry or downwardly m obile. I n a d d itio n , i t was hypothesized th a t when head o f household's 1961 o ccu p atio n al SES was c o n tro lle d , th e upper p re s tig e c ateg o ries would have th e h ig h e s t r a te s o f re tro s p e c tiv e lo n g -d ista n c e r e s id e n tia l m o b ility . The r e s u l ts o f a n a ly s is , as shown in Tables U5 and U 6, are such t h a t th e re 'i s v ery l i t t l e doubt as to th e e f f e c t th a t in te rg e n e ra tio n a l m o b ility has upon r e s id e n tia l m o b ility . However, th e r e s u lts a re in c o n tr a s t to th o se p o s ite d . The in te rg e n e ra tio n a lly s ta tio n a ry long d is ta n c e m o b ility r a te o f 3.U was le s s th an th a t o f th e downwardly m obile who had a r a te o f U.9. Even more s tr ik in g , however, i s th e evidence th a t th e upwardly m o b ile's lo n g -d ista n ce m o b ility r a te o f 2.0 d id n o t approxim ate th a t o f th e s ta tio n a ry and, o f co u rse, d id n o t nearly approach th e r a te o f U.9 e x h ib ite d by the downwardly m obile. These r e s u lts were com pletely unexpected. This i s e s p e c ia lly so when one ta k e s in to c o n sid era tio n th e e x te n t o f previous sp e cu la tiv e l i t e r a tu r e which has s tre s s e d th e r a te o f lo n g -d ista n ce moves by th e upwardly 193 Table U5 - R etro sp ectiv e Long-Distance R e sid e n tia l M obility and I n te r - g e n eratio n al M obility and Head o f H ousehold's 1961 Occupa tio n a l SES Head o f Household's 1961 SES In te rg e n e ra tio n a l Occupational M obility - S ta tio n a ry L** ID Upwardly Mobile L ID Downwardly Mobile L L D N Low 29 6 * 8 3 176 L-Middle 13 1 11 3 5 0 16^ H-Middle 6 1 18 0 2 3 188 High 12 2 31 a * * 2l a T o tal 60 10 60 7 15 6 770 *ka a r e s u lt o f the c la s s if ic a tio n p ro cess, th e N 's fo r th ese c ateg o ries must be z ero . 3 Local Movers; L D 3 Long-Distance Movers. 19k Table U6 - R ates of R etro sp ectiv e Long-Distance M obility and I n te r- g e n eratio n al M obility and Head o f Household's 1961 O ccupational SES In te rg e n e ra tio n a l O ccupational M obility Head o f H ousehold's 1961 SES S ta tio n a ry Upwardly Mobile Downwardly Mobile N Lcm 1+.8 * 5.9 176 L-Kiddle 2.2 lw l 0 .0 16$ E-Middle 2.2 0.0 12.0 188 High 2.6 2»h * 2U1 O verall R ate 3.U 2.0 h .9 770 * k s a r e s u l t o f th e c la s s if ic a tio n p ro cess, th e r a te s fo r th ese c a te g o rie s must be zero . 195 m obile. Our a n a ly sis dem onstrates th a t t h i s hypothesis must not only be re je c te d b u t com pletely reform ulated. For those who were in te rg e n e ra tio n a lly s ta b le when SES was con tr o lle d , th e h ig h est r a te of lo n g -d ista n ce m o b ility of lj.8 was found in th e low SES categ o ry . The th re e highest SES groups have alm ost id en t i c a l r a te s o f 2 .2 , 2 .2 , and 2 .6 which i s much low er than th a t o f th e low SES category. The major d iffe re n c e w ith in th e s ta tio n a ry category, th e n , was between th e low SES stratum and a l l o th e rs . For th e in te rg e n e ra tio n a lly upwardly mobile th e h ig h est r a te o f lo n g -d istan ce moves by 1961 SES was found in the low est p o ssib le c a te gory. The r a te fo r t h is group was ij.l compared to a r a te o f 2.U in th e high SES. No lo n g -d ista n ce moves were rep o rte d fo r those in th e interm ediate category and of course th is meant th a t the r a te would be z ero . No lo n g -d ista n ce moves were made by persons in the low SES group on th e b a sis o f c la s s if ic a tio n which re s u lte d in t h is category being blank. Two c ateg o ries in the in te rg e n e ra tio n a lly downwardly mobile group had no lo n g -d istan ce moves. The high SES group had no long d istan ce moves as a r e s u lt of c la s s if ic a tio n s procedures; however, the low-middle SES category also had no long- d istan ce moves recorded, and, o f course, th e lo n g -d istan ce m o b ility r a te was z ero . The low and high- middle r a te s o f 5.9 and 12.0 were the h ig h est recorded fo r a l l sub c la s s if ic a tio n s . Our r e s u l ts , th en , suggest th a t th e in te rg e n e ra tio n a lly downwardly mobile have a much higher r a te o f lo n g -d istan ce moves than th e s ta tio n a ry , and e s p e c ia lly much h igher r a te s than th e upwardly m obile. 19 6 When SES was c o n tro lle d , th e most mtlceaEBle fin d in g was th a t f o r th e s ta tio n a ry and fo r b o th th e upwardly am£ rimmuagd ly m obile, th e high r a te s o f lo n g -d ista n c e were observed im th e h ig h e s t and low est p o ssib le SES c a te g o rie s . V. Summary The r e la tio n s h ip o f th e head o f B n gasas&ald, s in te rg e n e ra tio n a l o ccu p atio n al m o b ility to c u rre n t soemneonBimic s ta tu s i s examined in t h i s c h a p te r. A lso, th e in flu e n c e off i iBtera a n g ra tio n a l occupational m o b ility and head o f household’s 1 $ & D L wiwnmeeoncmri c s ta tu s on r e t r o sp ectiv e and p ro sp e ctiv e r e s id e n tia l monras, and fo r re tro s p e c tiv e lo n g -d ista n c e moves i s determ ined. The h ig h e st o v e ra ll percentage off in ta rg rao e ratio n al occupational m o b ility was recorded fo r th e upward ly lm a& rcT ia group. S ta b ility be tween g en eratio n s was recorded a t about fo u r— f i f t h s t h a t o f i n t e r g e n e ra tio n a l upward m o b ility . The lo a s s t p ro p o rtio n o f in te rg e n e ra tio n a l m o b ility was recorded f o r th e SnnnBBBTcEIy m obile group which had a percentage about o n e -th ird t h a t off th e upwardl y m obile. When SES was c o n tro lle d , th e Mgjbesfc pe rc e n tage o f in te rg e n e ra tio n a l s t a b i l i t y was recorded i n th e low 3ES stratu m . An opposite r e la tio n s h ip was found fo r th e infcergem arafiiaiially upwardly m obile. The two h ig h e s t SES c a te g o rie s had Mghmr pr opor t io n s o f s t a b i l i t y th an th e lo w est p o s s ib le stratu m , The Magfreat percentages fo r th e downwardly mobile were recorded i n th e tea* lam est SES c a te g o rie s when compared to th e h ig h e st p o s s ib le , e e t th e Mgh-ari riffle SES group. 197 The follow ing summary o f r e s id e n tia l m o b ility fin d in g s rep o rte d in th is ch ap ter are c o n siste n t fo r both re tro s p e c tiv e and pro sp ectiv e r e s id e n tia l m o b ility . The r e s u lts concerning lo n g -d ista n ce m obility, of course, p e rta in only to re tro s p e c tiv e lo n g -d istan ce m obility* In th e te s ts o f hypotheses concerning r e s id e n tia l m o b ility th e highest r a te s of r e s id e n tia l m o b ility were observed for th e occupa tio n a lly s ta tio n a ry . When SES was c o n tro lle d , th e h ig h est r a te s of geographic m o b ility in th e s ta tio n a ry group were found in th e two low est SES groups* In th e upwardly and downwardly mobile groups, th e highest r a te s were recorded in the low est and h ig h est p o ssib le s t r a ta w ith th e in term ed iate groups in both In stan ces having a lower r a t e . When th e r a te s o f re tro sp e c tiv e lo n g -d ista n ce moves were analyzed se p a ra te ly , the in te rg e n e ra tio n a lly downwardly mobile had a much higher r a t e of lo n g -d ista n ce moves th a n the s ta tio n a ry , and e sp e c ia lly much h ig h er r a te s than the upwardly m obile. When SES was c o n tro lle d , the n o tic ea b le fin d in g was th a t fo r th e sta tio n a ry and fo r both the upwardly and downwardly m obile was t h a t the h ig h e st r a te s o f long d istan ce movers were re p o rte d in th e h ig h est and low est p o ssib le SES categ o ries* Our o v e ra ll conclusion i s th a t much of th e previous sp ecu lativ e l it e r a t u r e i s in e rr o r . Our fin d in g s are ra th e r c o n siste n t. The up wardly mobile are le s s lik e ly than th e s ta tio n a ry to make a r e s id e n tia l move. I n sh o rt, previou s sp e cu la tiv e l it e r a t u r e not only did not p re d ic t w ith in the b ro ad est range im aginable the m o b ility experience of the Los Angeles sample; b u t, in a d d itio n , most o f the fin d in g s were co n trary to ex p ec ta tio n s. Hypotheses concerning in tra m e tro p o litan r e s id e n tia l m obility and m igration, i t appears, need to be re-examined by a d d itio n a l system atic research endeavors. Our findings are such th a t we are confident th a t our r e s u lts w ill be su b sta n tia te d , which w ill, of course, in d ic a te th a t much of th e speculative lit e r a t u r e is in e rro r. C H A P T E R K O C C U PA TIO N A L M OBILITY- EXPECTATIONS A N D RETROSPECTIVE RESIDENTIAL M OBILITY I . In tro d u ctio n Occupational m obility expectations and th e ir re la tio n sh ip to re tro sp e c tiv e r e s id e n tia l m obility— both o v e ra ll and lo n g -d istan ce — are examined in th is chapter* Analyses of geographic m obility in r e sp ect to occupational m o b ility expectations a ls o are undertaken w ith male head of household1s l? 6 l socioeconomic s ta tu s , occupational career p a tte rn s , and in te rg e n e ra tio n a l m obility controlled* Hypotheses te s te d in th is chapter are as follow s: (1) P o sitiv e occupational m o b ility expectations w ill be re la te d to re tro sp e c tiv e r e s id e n tia l moves, both lo c a l and lo n g -d istan ce; (2) The upper socio economic groups w ill have higher r a te s o f re s id e n tia l m obility th an the lower socioeconomic s tr a ta ; (3) Those who have an upwardly mobile occupational c aree r p a tte rn are more lik e ly th an the s ta tio n a ry or downwardly m obile, or those who have a flu c tu a tin g career p a tte rn , to be geographically mobile; (h ) Those who are in te rg e n e ra tio n a lly up wardly mobile a re more lik e ly than those who are s ta tio n a ry or down w ardly mobile to be r e s id e n tia lly mobile* Each of these hypotheses i s expected to be su b sta n tia te d in both an a n a ly sis o f o v e ra ll and long-distance moves. In each case, th e hypothesis i s th a t the long d istan ce moves w ill be d iffe re n tia te d from lo c a l moves in the same 200 d ire c tio n as th a t hypothesized fo r movers when compared to non-movers. I I . O ccupational M obility E xpectations, Head of Household1 s 1961 Occupational SES, and R etro sp ectiv e R e sid e n tia l M obility The hypothesis th a t male head, o f households w ith higher occupa tio n a l m o b ility ex p ectatio n s would more lik e ly have higher r a te s of r e s id e n tia l moves th an those who had f a i r or u n c e rta in occupational m o b ility ex p ectatio n s i s te s te d in th is se c tio n . As shown in Tables li7 and U8 t h is hypothesis was borne out by the d a ta . However, th e r a te o f d iffe re n c e s a re of such a sm all magnitude to suggest th a t th ese fin d in g s be accepted only te n ta tiv e ly . Those who ra te d th e ir occupa tio n a l m o b ility ex p ectatio n s "good" had a higher r e s id e n tia l m o b ility r a te than d id those who had expectations to " fa ir" or "u n c e rta in ." The r a te of m o b ility o f those who evaluated th e ir chances as being "good" was 2U.9. The r a te o f r e s id e n tia l m obility fo r those who ra te d th e ir occupational m o b ility expectations a3 " fa ir" was 16.7 in c o n tra st to a m o b ility r a te o f 19.6 fo r those who ra te d th e ir fu tu re occupa tio n a l m o b ility expectations as "u n c e rta in ." For those who r a te d th e ir ex p ectatio n s as good, when c u rre n t SES was c o n tro lle d , th e re was a p ro g ressiv e d eclin e in r e s id e n tia l m o b ility r a te s from 20. Ij. in th e high SES to a r a te of 32.8 in the low SES group. In th e f a i r category, th e two low est SES groups had the h ig h e st r e s i d e n tia l m o b ility r a t e s , although in every in stan ce except one, these r a te s were a l l le s s th a n th e low est r a te in the good categ o ry . There wa3 an extrem ely low r a te o f geographic m o b ility in the high-m iddle SES 201 group* T his r a te was s lig h tly le s s than o n e -th ird th e r a te o f th e n ex t h ig h e st stra tu m , or 6*1 compared to l8*U* The u n c ertain s had a r e s id e n tia l m o b ility experience s i m ila r to th a t of th e f a i r e x p ec ta tio n group. The m ajor d iffe re n c e being th a t th e high-m iddle SES' categ o ry had a much sm aller geographic m o b ility r a t e , b u t i t did n o t reach th e low le v e l o f th e high-m iddle SES group in th e f a i r e x p ec ta tio n category* In summary, th e h ig h est o v e ra ll r a te o f r e s id e n tia l m o b ility in regard to fu tu re o ccupational m o b ility e x p ec ta tio n s was recorded fo r those who ra te d th e i r o ccu p atio n al m o b ility chances o f being ngood.n The next h ig h e st r a te was found fo r the "u n ce rtain s" and th e low est r a te was re p o rte d f o r those who ra te d th e ir chances a s being " f a i r ." When SES was c o n tro lle d fo r those who had good o ccu p atio n al m o b i l i t y e x p e c ta tio n s, th e re were d eclin in g r a te s o f r e s id e n tia l m o b ility from th e h ig h e st SES group to th e low est. In th e f a i r e x p ec ta tio n group, somewhat sim ila r r a te s were found f o r a ll o f th e c a te g o rie s except one. The high-m iddle SES stratum had an extrem ely low geo graphic m o b ility r a te which was s lig h tly l e s s than o n e -th ird th a t o f th e next low est SES category* I n the u n c e rta in group s im ila r fin d in g s were in evidence although th e d if f e r e n tia tio n was n o t as marked* 202 Table k7 - R etro sp ectiv e R e sid e n tia l M obility by O ccupational M obility E xpectations aftd Head o f H ousehold's 1961 SES* 1961 Occupational SES O ccupational M obility E xpectations Gooda M N M F a irb M N M U ncertain0 M N M N Low 20 1 1 1 18 65 5 22 171 Low-Middle 25 6U 1U 57 3 9 172 High-Middle 27 79 h 62 1 6 179 High 37 1U U 9 ItO 2 8 2U0 T o ta l 109 328 16 22U 11 U5 762 #The Hi's by each major category w ill flu c tu a te s lig h tly in the follow ing ta b le s as a r e s u lt o f H i's and a la c k o f Inform ation fo r some respondents on se v era l o f th e re le v a n t q u estio n s. ■Good includes "very good" and "good1 * in terv iew schedule responses* ^F a ir includes " f a ir " and "n o t too good" responses. cU ncertain in clu d es "u n certain " and " d o n 't know" responses. Table 1 * 8 - R ates of R etro sp ectiv e R e s id e n tia l M obility by O ccupational M obility E xpectations and Head of H ousehold's 1961 SES* O ccupational M obility E xpectations 1961 Occupational SES Good F a ir U ncertain N Low 32.8 21.7 18.5 171 Low-Middle 28.1 19.7 25.0 172 High-Middle 2$.5 6 .1 ll**3 179 High 20.1* 18.1* 20.0 21*0 O verall Rate** 2l*.9 16.7 19.6 762 *Rates a re per 100. **The o v e ra ll r a te s b y each o f th ese major c a te g o rie s w ill flu c tu a te s lig h tly in th e follow ing ta b le s as a r e s u lt o f NR's and a la c k of inform ation fo r some respondents on se v e ra l of the re le v a n t questions* 20k TTT, O ccupational M obility E x p ectatio n s. Head o f H ousehold^ 1961 O ccupationalSE S, and Retrospiective Long-Dis'fance M obility I n t h i s s e c tio n th e hypothesis th a t heads of household w ith high e r r a te s o f lo n g -d istan ce r e s id e n tia l moves th an those who had f a i r or u n c ertain occupational m o b ility ex p ectatio n s i s te s te d . As shown i n Tables Ii9 and $0, th e r e s u lts a re n o t as hypothesized. While the good category had th e h ig h est r a te o f r e s id e n tia l moves, th e u n c ertain group had a much higher r a te o f lo n g -d istan ce m o b ility . The r a t e o f lo n g -d istan ce r e s id e n tia l movement by th e u n certain s was 5*U which i s i n c o n tra st to the r a te s of 3*9 o f th e good ra te d category and a r a te o f only 2.2 fo r th e f a i r expectation group. In both comparisons, th a t i s o v e ra ll re tro s p e c tiv e r e s id e n tia l m obility and lo n g -d istan ce moves, th e f a i r group ra te d low est. A turnabout occurred w ith th e good group having the higher r a te s o f r e s id e n tia l m o b ility , b u t th e u n c e rta in group having higher r a te s o f lo n g -d istan ce moves. Whan 1961 SES was c o n tro lle d , in th e good ex p ectatio n group, the two low est SES c a te g o rie s had much higher r a te s o f r e s id e n tia l m o b ility th an th e two h ig h e st SES s t r a ta . An opposite fin d in g occurred in the f a i r r a te d category where th e h ig h est r a te o f lo n g -d istan ce moves of U.2 m s observed i n th e low middle SES group w ith th e low SES and two h ig h est c a te g o rie s having much sm aller r a t e s . The high SES r a t e of lo n g -d istan ce moves was 2.0 compared to 1.2 o f th e low SES stratum . The r a te s f o r the high-m iddle SES group was 1.5* 205 Table U9 - R etro sp ectiv e Long-Distance R e sid e n tia l M obility by Occupa tio n a l M obility E xpectations and Head o f Household’s 1961 SES* O ccupational M obility E xpectations 1961 Good F a ir U ncertain U O ccupational SES L L D L L D L LD Lew 15 5 17 1 k 1 U3 Low-Middle 19 6 11 3 2 1 hZ High-Middle 25 2 3 1 1 0 32 High 33 h 8 1 1 1 U8 T o ta l 92 17 Uo 6 8 3 165 *L. ■ Local movesj L D •» Long-Distance moves. Table f»0 - R ates o f R etro sp ectiv e Long-Distance R e s id e n tia l M o b ility by O ccupational M o b ility E xpectations and Head o f H ousehold's 1961 SES O ccupational M obility E xpectations 1961 O ccupational SES Good - F a ir U ncertain N Low 8*2 1.2 3*7 171 Low-Middle 6*7 U.2 8.3 172 High-Middle 1*9 1.5 0.0 179 High 2.2 2 .0 10.0 2U0 O verall R ate 3.9 2.2 762 207 The u n certain group had a g re a t deal o f flu c tu a tio n in so fa r as lo n g -d istan ce m obility r a te s a re concerned., T his may be a r e s u lt o f th e sm all N in th is categ o ry. The r e s u lts in d ic a te th a t th e h ig h est SES group had a r a te of 10.0 which i s in c o n tra s t to th e high-m iddle group in which no lo n g -d istan ce moves were observed which re s u lte d in a r a te o f 0 .0 . The two low est categ o ries had r a te s o f 3 .7 and 8.3- Our conclusion i s th a t th ere are d iff e re n t mechanisms in op eratio n in re sp e c t to lo c a l and lo n g -d istan ce moves in so fa r as SES and occupa tio n a l m obility expectations are concerned. The h ig h e st r a te o f r e s i d e n tia l m obility was observed fo r those who ra te d th e ir occupational m o b ility expectations as good. On th e other hand, th e h ig h est r a te s of long-distance m obility were observed in th e u n certain categbry which had a much higher r a te than those who re p o rte d th e ir chances as f a i r , and a higher r a te th an those who ra te d th e ir chances as good. When SES was c o n tro lle d , in th e good r a te d category, the low SES groups had th e h ig h est r a te s of lo n g -d istan ce m o b ility . In the f a i r ra te d group, the low-middle SES group had th e highest r a te of long distance m obility w ith the high SE S> stratum having a r a t e not even h a lf th a t o f th e low-middle SES group, and only s lig h tly higher than th a t r a te o f th e low SES group. In th e u n certain category, th e high SES group had th e highest recorded lo n g -d istan ce m obility r a t e and the high-m iddle SES group had the low est recorded r a te . The two low est SES groups had f a i r l y high lo n g -d istan ce m o b ility r a te s . 208 17. O ccupational M obility E xpectations, O ccupational Career P a tte rn , and R etro sp ectiv e R e sid e n tia l M obility In t h is s e c tio n th e hypothesis th a t th e re would he variance in re tro s p e c tiv e r e s id e n tia l m obility r a te s by occupational c aree r p a tte rn s i s examined. When occupation c aree r p a tte rn s are analyzed s e p a ra te ly , i t was hypothesized th a t the upwardly m obile would have a higher m o b ility r a te th an the s ta tio n a ry , downwardly m obile, or those who e x h ib ite d a flu c tu a tin g occupational c aree r p a tte rn . In th e good occupational m o b ility ex p ectatio n categ o ry , th e high e s t r a te o f r e s id e n tia l movement was found i n th e flu c tu a tin g occupa tio n a l career group. As shown in Tables 51 and 52, a r a te o f 36.8 was recorded. A somewhat sim ila r r a t e , however, o f 33.6 was observed fo r th e upwardly mobile group. The s ta tio n a ry had a geographic m obility r a te of 2 0 .8 , and th e downwardly mobile re p o rte d th e low est r a te of a l l occupational career p a tte rn s w ith a r a t e o f 1 1 .8 . When occupational c aree r p a tte rn s were held co n stan t and r e s i d e n tia l m o b ility r a te s were examined fo r th e f a i r occupational m obility ex p ectatio n group, th e h ig h est r a te s were observed i n th e downwardly mobile group, or the group which in th e good ex p ectatio n s recorded th e low est r a te o f r e s id e n tia l moves. F a irly high r a te s of 20.0 and 18.5 were recorded fo r the flu c tu a tin g and upwardly mobile, re s p e c tiv e ly . The low est r a te s w ith in th e f a i r ex p ectatio n s group was found in th e o c c u p a tio n ally sta tio n a ry category. The flu c tu a tin g career p a tte r n accounted f a r high r a te s i n both th e good and f a i r expectations c a te g o rie s , however, i n th e u n c ertain ex p ectatio n group, no r e s id e n tia l move3 were observed which of course Table 5 > 1 - R etro sp ectiv e R e sid e n tia l M obility by O ccupational M obility E xpectations and O ccupational C areer P a tte rn s Occupational Mobility Expectations_____ Occupational Good Fair Uncertain N Career Patterns M HM M NM M NM Stationary 56 213 29 160 7 35 5oo Upwardly Mobile 37 73 10 k k 2 5 171 Downwardly Mobile h 30 U 12 2 3 .55- Fluctuating 7 12 2 8 0 2 31 Total 10l| 328 U5 22li 11 U5 757 210 Table 52 - R ates o f R etro sp ectiv e R e sid e n tia l M obility by O ccupational M obility E xpectations and Occupational C areer P a tte rn s Occupational M obility E xpectations O ccupational C areer P a tte rn s Good F a ir U ncertain N S ta tio n a ry 20*8 15.3 1 6 .7 5oo Upwardly Mobile 33.6 18.5 28.6 171 Downwardly Mobile 11.8 2 5 .0 Uo.o F lu c tu a tin g 36.8 2 0 .0 0 .0 31 O verall R ate 2U.1 16.7 3 9 .6 757 211 means th a t a r e s id e n tia l m obility r&te o f 0 .0 was recorded. On the o th er hand, th e downwardly mobile who had the low est ra te s o f moves in th e good ex p ectatio n category, had th e h ig h est r a te s in both th e f a i r and u n c ertain groups* The r a te fo r th e downwardly mobile in th e un c e rta in c la s s if ic a tio n was h.0,0. The upwardly mobile had a r a t e of 28.6 and th e s ta tio n a ry had a ra te of 16*7* To summarize, in the good occupational m obility ex p ectatio n cate gory, th e h ig h est r a te of re s id e n tia l moves was found fo r those who had e x h ib ited a flu c tu a tin g occupational career p a tte r n . However, the upwardly m o b ile's r e s id e n tia l m obility r a te approximated the highest r a t e . The s ta tio n a ry had a r e s id e n tia l m o b ility r a te interm ediate to t h a t o f th e flu c tu a tin g and upwardly mobile when compared to th e down w ardly m obile. The downwardly m obile's geographic m obility r a te was about o n e -th ird th a t of the upwardly m obile and flu c tu a tin g career p a tte rn male head of households* A d if fe re n t p a tte r n was found in the f a i r occupational m obility ex p ectatio n c la s s if ic a tio n where the h ig h est r e s id e n tia l m o b ility r a te was recorded fo r th e downwardly m obile. As in the good category, th e flu c tu a tin g had a high r a t e . The s ta tio n a ry and upwardly m obile both had sm aller r a te s than th e downwardly mobile and flu c tu a tin g c a te g o rie s, however, th e d ifferen c e s in the f a i r expectations group was n o t nearly a s g re a t as those recorded fo r the good expectations group* The flu c tu a tin g career p a tte rn had a marked d ifferen c e in the un c e rta in expectations group. The geographic m obility ra te which had been among the h ig h est fo r the good and f a i r ex p ectatio n s, now dropped to an absolute zero w ith no re s id e n tia l moves being recorded. In 212 c o n tra s t, the downwardly mobile who had the low est r a t e in th e good expectations category, but had the h ig h est in the f a i r , again ex h ib ited th e h ig h est r a te s . In f a c t, th e r a te recorded fo r th e downwardly mobile in the u n c ertain expectations groups was th e h ig h est recorded fo r a l l o f the s u b -c la s s ific a tio n groups. The o ccupationally s ta tio n ary and the upwardly mobile had f a i r l y high r e s id e n tia l m o b ility r a te s . V* Occupational M obility E xpectations, O ccupational C areer P a tte rn s, and R etrospective Long-Distance M obility The hypothesis th a t th ere would be d if f e r e n tia ls in re tro sp e c tiv e long-distance m o b ility ra te s by occupational m obility expectations and occupational career p a tte rn s i s te s te d in th is se c tio n , and th e r e s u lts are in d ic a te d in Tables $3 and 5U. I t was hypothesized th a t when occupational career p a tte rn s are c o n tro lle d w ith in occupational m obili ty expectation c a te g o rie s, the upwardly mobile would have a higher re tro sp e c tiv e lo n g -d istan ce m obility r a te than th e s ta tio n a ry , down wardly m obile, or those who ex h ib ited a flu c tu a tin g occupational career p a tte rn . In two of the c a te g o rie s, th e upwardly mobile e x h ib ited very low ra te s o f lo n g -d istan ce m ob ility . For those whose occupational m o bility expectations were ra te d good, th e lo n g -d istan ce r e s id e n tia l m obility r a te o f the upwardly mobile was only 0 .9 . This i s in c o n tra s t to the r a te s of 3*7 and 2.9 recorded fo r th e occupational s ta tio n a ry and up wardly m obile, re s p e c tiv e ly . No lo n g -d istan ce moves were recorded fo r heads o f households w ith a flu c tu a tin g career p a tte rn . The upwardly m obile, on the other hand, in th e f a i r expectations c la s s ific a tio n s Table 53 - R etrospective Long-Distance R e sid e n tia l M obility by Occupational M obility E xpectations and O ccupational Career P a tte rn s O ccupational M obility E xpectations O ccupational Career P a tte rn s Good L I * 0 F a ir L L D U ncertain L L D N S ta tio n a ry U 6 10 2 6 3 k 3 5oo Upwardly Mobile 36 1 7 3 2 0 171 Downwardly Mobile 3 1 U 0 2 0 55 F lu c tu a tin g 7 0 2 0 0 0 31 T otal 92 12 39 6 8 3 757 Table $k - R ates of R etro sp ectiv e Long-Distance R e sid e n tia l M obility by O ccupational M obility E xpectations and O ccupational Career P a tte rn s O ccupational M obility E xpectations Occupational Career P a tte rn s Good F a ir U ncertain N S ta tio n a ry 3.7 1 .6 7.1 $00 Upwardly Mobile 0.9 2 .6 0 .0 171 Downwardly Mobile 2.9 0.0 0.0 22 F lu c tu a tin g 0.0 0 .0 0.0 31 O verall R ate 2.8 2.2 727 215 had the highest rate of long-distance moves of 5.6. The stationary had a rate of 1.6 and the downwardly mobile and fluctuating career patterns had no long-distance moves recorded, and consequent rates of 0.0. In the uncertain expectation group, no long-distance moves were recorded for the upwardly, downwardly, or fluctuating career pattern categories. The stationary, however, had a rate of 7.1, or the high- « est among all of the sub-categories when occupational mobility ex pectations were analyzed by holding constant occupational career patterns* The expectation that the upwardly mobile would more likely have higher long-distance mobility rates by occupational mobility expecta tions and occupational career patterns was borne out only within the fair expectations group. In the good expectations group, the rate was near the zero point, and in the uncertain classification the rate was zero. The highest rates of retrospective long-distance moves in the good expectations category were exhibited by the stationary, for the fair group by the upwardly mobile, and in the uncertain category, only one group exhibited long-distance moves at ail and this was the sta tionary occupational career pattern. VI. Occupational Mobility Expectations, Intergenerational Occupational Mobility and Retrospective Residential Mobility Op to this point in this chapter we have been concerned with the head of the household only. However, in this section of the chapter an 216 a n a ly sis o f r e s id e n tia l m o b ility i s undertaken w ith in te rg e n e ra tio n a l occupational m o b ility held c o n sta n t. Our h y p o th esis, as p rev io u sly , assumes th a t th e re w ill be w ith in th e ex p ectatio n c la s s if ic a tio n s a d if f e r e n tia l re tro sp e c tiv e r e s id e n tia l m o b ility r a t e by in te rg en e ra tio n a l occupational m o b ility . S p e c ific a lly , our hypothesis i s th a t th e upwardly mobile w ithin each ex p ectatio n category w ill e x h ib it higher recorded r a te s of r e s id e n tia l m o b ility than th e downwardly mo b i l e or th e in te rg e n e ra tio n a lly s ta b le . As in d ic a te d in Tables £5 and £6, our hypothesis was borne out in only one category, th a t o f the u n c ertain ex p ectatio n s where th e high e s t re tro sp e c tiv e r e s id e n tia l m o b ility r a te of 33*3 was recorded. The s ta tio n a ry had a geographic m o b ility r a te o f 19.0 and the downwardly mobile had a r a te o f 6 .2 . For those who had good ex p ec ta tio n s, th e h ig h est r a te of r e s id e n tia l moves was found in th e s ta tio n a ry group w ith a r a te of 29.3. The upwardly mobile were in an in term ed iate p o si tio n to th e sta tio n a ry and downwardly mobile w ith a r a te o f 23.0. The r e s id e n tia l m o b ility r a te of th e downwardly mobile was 1 9 .0 . In th e f a i r expectations group, th e upwardly mobile had the low est recorded m obility r a te o f 1 3 .2 . The s ta tio n a ry and downwardly mobile had r a te s o f 17.9 and 20.0, re s p e c tiv e ly . The h ig h est r a te o f a l l the su b -categ o ries when occupation m o b ility ex p ectatio n s and in te rg en e ra tio n a l occupational groups were examined was found in the upwardly mobile w ith u n certain fu tu re ex p ectatio n s. In th e f a i r expectations group, th e h ig h est r a te o f r e s id e n tia l m o b ility was observed in th e downwardly mobile group. For those w ith good ex p ec ta tio n s, th e h ig h est 217 Table 5 > 5 - R etrospective R e sid e n tia l M obility by O ccupational M obility E xpectations and In te rg e n e ra tio n a l O ccupational M obility Occupational M obility E xpectations______ In te r - g en eratio n al Good F a ir U ncertain N Occupational M obility M M M M M M M N M S ta tio n a ry ia 99 1 9 8 7 u 1 7 2 6 7 Upwardly Mobile U 9 1 6 U 1 U 9 2 k 8 331 Downwardly Mobile n U 7 8 3 2 1 1 5 11h T otal 101 310 l a 211 9 hO 712 218 Table 56 - B ates o f R etro sp ectiv e R e s id e n tia l M o b ility by O ccupational M obility E xpectations and In te rg e n e ra tio n a l O ccupational M obility O ccupational M obility E xpectations I n te r - g e n e ra tio n a l O ccupational M obility Good F a ir U ncertain N S ta tio n a ry 2 9 . 3 1 7 . 9 2 9 .0 2 6 7 Upwardly Mobile 23.0 13.2 3 3.3 3 3 1 Downwardly Mobile 19.0 20.0 6 .2 l l U O verall R ate 2 U .6 1 6 . 3 l 6 . l i 7 1 2 219 r a te of geographic m o b ility mas recor ded f t r th e in te rg e n e ra tio n a lly stable* V II. O ccapational Kbbility Expectations* Intergenerational Occapational Mobility, and Retrospective Long-Distance Mobility In t h i s sectio n o f th e ch ap ter, an a n a ly sis o f re tro sp e c tiv e lo n g -d ista n ce moves i s undertaken by occapational n o b ility expectations when in te rg e n e ra tio n a l occupational M obility i s h eld constant* Our hypothesis assumes th a t th e upwardl y n o b ile i n each ex p ectatio n cate gory w ill have higher rep o rte d r a t e s o f lo n g -d istan ce geographic m o b ility th an the downwardly n o b ile o r th e in te rg e n e ra tio n a lly stable* For a l l th re e c a te g o rie s o f ex p ectatio n s, oar hypothesis was found to be w anting. As shown in T ables 57 an(i 58* in th e good ex p e c ta tio n s category, th e h ig h e st r a t e o f lo n g -d istan ce moves of U»3 was observed f a r the in te rg e n e ra tio n a lly s ta tio n a ry . The downwardly mobile had a r a te of 3.U and th e agnardl y n o b ile had th e low est r a te o f 1 .9 . Somewhat sim ila r r e s u lts were found in th e f a i r ex pectations category where th e h ig h est r a te o f lo n g -d istan ce moves once more was e x h ib ite d by th e downwardly mobile w ith a r a te o f 5*0. However, th e upwardly mobile who had th e lo west r a t e i n th e good c la s s if ic a tio n , had an in term ed iate r a t e i n th e f a i r expectation group w ith a r a te of 1 .9 compared to the r a t e o f 0 .9 f o r th e in te rg e n e ra tio n a lly s ta b le . For those w ith u n c e rta in occupational n o b ility ex p ec ta tio n s, th e h ig h est r a t e o f lo n g -d istan ce m o b ility was observed in th e sta tio n a ry group. A lso, t h is was th e h ig h est r a te obs erved fo r a l l o f the Table 57 - R etro sp ectiv e Long-Distance R e sid e n tia l M obility by O ccupational M obility E xpectations and In te rg e n e ra tio n a l O ccupational M obility O ccupational M obility E xpectations I n te r g en eratio n al Good F a ir U ncertain N Occupational M obility L ■ L D L L D L ZD S ta tio n a ry 35 6 18 1 2 2 267 Upwardly Mobile 16 h 12 2 3 1 331 Downwardly Mobile 9 2 6 2 1 0 m T otal 89 12 36 5 6 3 712 221 Table £8 - Rates o f R etro sp ectiv e Long-Distance R e sid e n tia l M obility by Occupational M obility E xpectations and In te rg e n e ra tio n a l O ccupational M obility O ccupational M obility E xpectations In te r g e n eratio n al Occupational M obility Good F a ir U ncertain N F S ta tio n a ry U.3 0 .9 9.5 267 Upwardly Mobile _ _ 1 .9 1.9 8.3 331 Downwardly Mobile 3.U 5.0 0.0 11U O verall R ate 2.9 2.0 6 .1 712 222 su b -categ o ries when occupational n o b ility expectations and in terg en era tio n a l occupational m o b ility were analyzed in re s p e c t to lo n g -d istan ce m o b ility . T his r a te was 9.5>. The upwardly mobile had a r a te o f 8*3 and th e downwardly mobile had a r a te of 0 .0 w ith no lo n g -d istan ce moves being re p o rte d . The in te rg e n e ra tio n a lly upwardly m obile's lo n g -d istan ce m o b ility r a te flu c tu a te d by occupational m o b ility expectations w ith th e good ex p ectatio n s o f m obility having th e lpw est ra te o f lo n g -d istan ce geo graphic moves and the f a i r having th e next h ig h est r a t e , and f in a lly the u n certain s having one o f the h ig h e st lo n g -d istan ce m o b ility r a te s ■ > - recorded by any sub-category. In summary, the h ig h est r a te o f lo n g -d istan ce r e s id e n tia l moves fo r heads o f households who had good occupational m o b ility ex p ectatio n s was observed f o r th e in te rg e n e ra tio n a lly s ta b le . An interm ediate r a te was recorded fear the downwardly mobile and the low est r a te o f long d istan c e moves was recorded fo r th e upwardly m obile. For those who had a f a i r r a tin g o f occupational m o b ility ex p ectatio n s, th e h ig h est r a te s were observed once more in th e downwardly mobile category. On the o th er hand, th e upwardly mobile had an interm ediate r a te and th e sta tio n a ry had th e low est recorded lo n g -d istan ce m obility r a t e . In th e u n c ertain expectations category, no lo n g -d istan ce moves were observed fo r th e downwardly m obile, b u t the r a te s fo r th e in te rg e n e ra tio n a lly s ta b le and upwardly were th e h ig h est observed fo r a l l su b -c ate g o rie s. V II I. Summary 223 O ccupational m o b ility ex p ec ta tio n s and t h e i r re la tio n s h ip to re tro s p e c tiv e r e s id e n tia l m o b ility - - both lo c a l and long-distam ce — i s examined in t h i s c h a p te r. F u rth er analyses o f geographic m o b ility in re s p e c t to o ccupational e x p e c ta tio n s also a re undertaken w ith male head o f household's c u rre n t socioeconomic s ta tu s , o ccu p atio n al c a re e r p a tte r n s , and in te rg e n e ra tio n a l m o b ility c o n tro lle d . Hypotheses te s te d in t h i s chapter were th a t p o s itiv e occupational m o b ility ex p ec ta tio n s would be re la te d to re tro s p e c tiv e r e s id e n tia l m o b ility and lo n g -d ista n ce geographic moves. I n a d d itio n , i t was hypothesized th a t th e higher socioeconomic s t r a ta would have M-gfogr r a te s o f r e s id e n tia l m o b ility than th e lower socioeconomic c a te g o rie s . Furtherm ore, i t was hypothesized th a t those who are upwardly mobile e ith e r in o ccu p atio n al c a re e r p a tte r n o r in te rg e n e ra tio n a lly would have h igher r a te s o f geographic m o b ility than those who had o th er c a re e r or in te rg e n e ra tio n a l o ccu p atio n al m o b ility ex p erien ces. Each o f th e se hypotheses were expected to be su b sta n tia te d i n am a n a ly sis o f re tro s p e c tiv e lo n g -d ista n c e moves. In each c ase , th e h ypothesis was t h a t th e lo n g -d ista n c e moves would be d if f e r e n tia te d front lo c a l moves in th e same d ire c tio n as th a t f o r movers when compared t o non- m overs. The h ig h est o v e ra ll r a t e o f r e s id e n tia l m o b ility i n r e ga rd to fu tu re occupational m o b ility ex p ectatio n s was found fo r th o se who r e p o rte d t h e i r chances of m o b ility as being good. The n ex t h ig h e st r a t e was found fo r th e u n c e rta in s and th e low est r a te was re p o rte d fo r those who assessed th e ir chances as being f a i r . When head o f household's c u rre n t SES was c o n tro lle d , f o r those who had good occupational m obility expectations,, th ere were d eclin in g r a te s of r e s id e n tia l m o b ility from th e high SES group to th e lo w est. In th e f a i r ex p ectatio n group, somewhat sim ila r r a te s were found. The exception was fo r the high-m iddle SES stratum which had an extrem ely low geographic m o b ility r a t e . In th e u n c ertain ex p ectatio n group, sim ila r fin d in g s were in evidence although th e d iff e r e n tia tio n was not as marked. A fte r an a n a ly sis o f re tro sp e c tiv e lo n g -d istan ce m o b ility , our conclusion was th a t th e re are d iffe re n t mechanisms in o p eratio n in so fa r as SES and occupational m obility ex p ectatio n s and th e ir re la tio n s h ip to r e s id e n tia l moves are concerned. Whereas the h ig h est r a te o f r e t r o sp ectiv e r e s id e n tia l m o b ility was observed fo r those heads o f house holds who rep o rte d t h e i r occupational m o b ility ex p ectatio n s as good, th e h igher r a te s o f lo n g -d istan ce m obility were observed i n th e un c e rta in category which had over tw ice the r a te s of those who assessed th e ir chances as f a i r , and a much higher r a te than those who re p o rte d th e ir chances as good. When SES was c o n tro lle d , the low est groups i n th e good ex p ectatio n s had the h ig h est m o b ility ra te s ; in th e f a i r group the h ig h est m o b ility r a te s were observed in the low-middle category; and in the u n certain expectations group high r a te s were observed in every SES category except the high-m iddle in which n o t one long d istan c e move was observed. When occupational c aree r p a tte rn s were h eld c o n stan t, i n th e good occupational m o b ility expectation category, th e h ig h est r a te o f r e s i d e n tia l moves was found fo r those who had e x h ib ited a flu c tu a tin g 225 occupational c aree r p a ttern * However, the upwardly mobile*s re sid e n t i a l m o b ility r a te approximated th e h ig h est observed r a t e . A d iff e re n t p a tte rn was found in the f a i r occupational ex p ectatio n group where the h ig h est r e s id e n tia l m o b ility ra te was recorded fo r th e downwardly mo b ile . As in th e good expectations category, th e flu c tu a tin g career p a tte rn group a lso had a high r a te . The downwardly mobile had th e h ig h est r a te s in the u n c ertain expectations group although sta tio n a ry and upwardly mobile a lso had f a i r l y high r e s id e n tia l m o b ility r a t e s . The ex p ectatio n th a t the upwardly mobile would more lik e ly have higher lo n g -d ista n ce m obility r a te s by occupational ex pectation and occupational c aree r p a tte rn s was borne out only w ith in th e f a i r expec ta tio n s group. In the good ex p ectatio n s category, th e h ig h est r a te s of lo n g -d istan ce moves were e x h ib ited by the o ccu p atio n ally sta tio n a ry . In the u n certain ex p ectatio n s category, only one group had lo n g -d istan ce moves and th is was the s ta tio n a ry occupational career p a tte rn category. In te rg e n e ra tio n a l hypotheses te s te d were th a t th e upwardly mobile w ithin each ex pectation category would e x h ib it higher observed r a te s of r e s id e n tia l m o b ility than the downwardly mobile or the in te rg en e ra tio n a lly s ta b le . Our hypothesis was borne out only in th e one category of u n c ertain ex p ectatio n s. In th e f a i r expectations group, th e up wardly mobile had th e low est observed m obility r a te . In th e good expectations category, th e h ig h est r a te of geographic m o b ility was r e corded fo r th e in te rg e n e ra tio n a lly s ta b le . When in te rg e n e ra tio n a l occupational m obility was held co n stan t and re tro sp e c tiv e lo n g -d istan ce moves were examined, th e highest r a te in the good expectations category was found in the o ccupationally s ta b le group although th e in te rg e n e ra tio n a lly downwardly m obile*s r a te was only s lig h tly low er. In th e f a i r expectations group, th e h ig h e st r a te o f lo n g -d istan ce m obility was found in the downwardly m obile category. Both the s ta tio n a ry and the upwardly mobile had high lo n g -d istan ce m o b ility r a te s in th e u n c ertain occupational m o b ility ex p ectatio n category. W o long-distance moves were observed in the downwardly mo b ile group. Our o v e ra ll conclusion i s th a t hypotheses concerning occupational m obility ex p ectatio n s and c aree r and in te rg e n e ra tio n a l m o b ility , and SES d if f e r e n tia ls and th e ir re la tio n s h ip to r e s id e n tia l m o b ility need refo rm u latio n . CHAPTER X O C CU PA TIO N A L MOBILITY EXPECTATIONS A N D PROSPECTIVE RESIDENTIAL MOBILITY I . In tro d u c tio n T his c h ap ter continues the an aly ses undertaken in th e l a s t ch ap ter which r e la te d o ccu p atio n al m o b ility e x p ec ta tio n s to r e s id e n tia l mo b i l i t y . However, the prev io u s ch ap ter was concerned w ith re tro s p e c tiv e r e s id e n tia l m o b ility w hile we are now concerned w ith th e r e la tio n s h ip between p ro sp ectiv e r e s id e n tia l m o b ility and o ccu p atio n al m o b ility e x p ec ta tio n s. In th is c h a p te r, th e n , analyses of geographic m o b ility in re s p e c t to o ccu p atio n al m o b ility e x p ec ta tio n s a re undertaken w ith male head o f h o u seh o ld ^ 1961 socioeconomic s ta tu s , occupational c aree r p a tte r n s , and in te rg e n e ra tio n a l m o b ility c o n tro lle d . In a d d itio n , th e r e s u l t s of th e re tro s p e c tiv e and p ro sp e ctiv e analyses are compared. Hypotheses te s te d i n th is c h ap ter a re th a t p o s itiv e occupational m o b ility ex p ectatio n s w i l l be r e la te d to p ro sp ectiv e r e s id e n tia l moves; th a t th e upper socioeconomic groups w ill have higher r a t e s of r e s i d e n tia l moves; th a t th e upper socioeconomic groups w ill have h igher r a te s o f r e s id e n tia l m o b ility th an th e lower socioeconomic s tr a ta ; th a t those who have an upwardly mobile o ccu p atio n al career p a tte r n a re more lik e ly th an th e s ta tio n a ry or downwardly m obile, or those who have a flu c tu a tin g c aree r p a tte r n , to be g eo g rap h ically m obile; and th a t th o se who are in te rg e n e ra tio n a lly upwardly mobile are more lik e ly than those who are sta tio n a ry or downwardly mobile to be r e s id e n tia lly m obile, I I , Occupational M obility E xpectations, Head of Household’s 1961 Occupational SES, and P rospective R e sid e n tia l M obility The hypothesis th a t head of households w ith good occupational m obility expectations would have higher ra te s o f r e s id e n tia l m obility than those who had f a i r or u n certain occupational m obility expectations when head of household’s 1961 occupational SES i s c o n tro lle d is te s te d in th is se ctio n . As in d icated in Tables $ 9 and 60, the o v e ra ll r a t e of observed re s id e n tia l moves was 23*6 fo r those who rep o rte d good m obility ex p ectatio n s, 18,9 f o r the f a i r expectations group and 30,8 fo r th e u n certain category. These fin d in g s are contrary to our hypothesis in sofar as th e re la tio n sh ip between the good and u n certain categ o ries are concerned. These re s u lts are also in c o n tra st to those recorded fo r retro sp e c tiv e m obility where our hypothesis was su b sta n tia te d . The o v erall r a te s by rep o rted good expectations was sim ilar fo r both re tro sp e c tiv e and prospective m obility w ith ra te s o f 2h,9 and 23.6, re sp e c tiv e ly . The f a i r ex p ectatio n category a lso had sim ila r r a te s o f re tro sp e c tiv e and observed m obility w ith ra te s o f 18,9 and 1 6 .7 . The major d ifferen c e between re tro sp e c tiv e and pro sp ectiv e mo b i l i t y occurred in the u n certain group where a r a te o f 19.6 was r e corded fo r observed m o b ility . In so fa r as prospective r e s id e n tia l m obility i s concerned, w ith in the good occupational expectations category, th e ra te s were about equal 229 Table 59 - P rospective R e s id e n tia l M obility by O ccupational M obility E xpectations and Head of H ousehold's 1961 SES ________ O ccupational M obility E xpectations______ 1961 Good* F a ir'3 Uncertain® N O ccupational SES M** N M M N M M H M Low 22 79 2 k 65 11 19 220 L-Middle*** 22 67 16 61 k 11 181 H-Middle 27 93 8 61 h 5 198 High 51 157 6 1 * 5 1 10 270 Total* 122 396 Sk 232 20 U5 869 *The N 's by each of th e se categ o ries w ill flu c tu a te s lig h tly in th e follow ing ta b le s as a r e s u l t of NR's and a la c k of inform ation fo r some respondents on se v e ra l o f the Relevant questions* **M ■ Moverj N M ■ Nonmover. ***L-MLddle « Low-Middle5 H-Middle » High-Middle. aGood includes "very good" and "good" in terv iew schedule resp o n se s. ^ F a ir includes " f a ir" and "not too good" responses. ®Uncertain in clu d es "uncertain" and " d o n 't know" responses 230 Table 60 - R ates of P ro sp ectiv e R e sid e n tia l M obility by O ccupational M obility E xpectations and Head of Household's l ? 6 l SES 1961 Occupational SES O ccupational M obility E xpectations Good F a ir U ncertain N Low 21.8 27.0 36.7 220 L-Middle 2iw7 20.8 26.7 181 H-Middle 22.5 11.6 u u . u 198 High 2lu5 11.8 9 .1 270 O verall R ates* 23.6 18.9 30.8 869 *The o v e ra ll r a te s by each o f th ese major c ateg o ries w ill flu c tu a te s lig h tly in th e follow ing ta b le s as a r e s u lt o f NR' and a la c k o f i n form ation fo r some respondents on se v e ra l of th e re le v a n t q u estio n s, **Rates are per 100, 231 fo r « n o f th e SES c ateg o ries w ith a flu c tu a tio n of 21*8 a t th e m i ni m um to a n u yriimim of 2U.7. However, when th e se r a te s are compared to the re tro s p e c tiv e a n a ly sis o f r e s id e n tia l m o b ility , the lower Si$S groups had h igher m o b ility r a te s . For th e f a i r ex p ectatio n s group, th e r a te s fo r the two lower SES s t r a ta were 27.0 and 20.8 which are i n c o n tra st to th e r a te s o f U .6 and 11.8 o f the two h ig h est SES c a te g o rie s. The o v e ra ll r a te s of re tro sp e c tiv e and p ro sp ectiv e geographic m obility fo r the f a i r groups were very s im ila r. H owever , in th e re tro sp e c tiv e a n a ly sis, a l l o f the groups had sim ila r r a te s except fo r th e high-m iddle SES stratum which had a r a t e le s s th an o n e -th ird th a t o f the o th er c la s s if ic a tio n s . The u n c e rta in occupational m o b ility category recorded th e highest r a te o f p ro sp ectiv e geographic m o b ility , and a l l of the SES categ o ries except one r e f le c te d th is higher r a te o f m o b ility w ith r a te s of 36.7, 26.7 , and UU.U. The high SES category, however, had th e low est ob served m o b ility r a t e recorded fo r a h SES su b -categ o ries w ith a r a te of 9 .1 . Major d iffe re n c e s between re tro sp e c tiv e and pro sp ectiv e m obility analyses occurred in th e u n c e rta in expectations c la s s if ic a tio n . In only one SES were sim ila r r a t e s recorded. In the low-middle SES, the r a te s o f re tro s p e c tiv e m o b ility was 25.0 which i s very sim ila r to th e 26.7 r a t e recorded f o r p ro sp ectiv e m o b ility . The observed m obility r a te fo r the low SES was alm ost double th a t o f th e re tro sp e c tiv e moves; and iii the high-m iddle category, th e re tro sp e c tiv e r e s id e n tia l m obility r a te was 1U.3 which i s in c o n tra st to a p rospective r a te o f U h.U re corded fo r th is p a n el one y ear l a t e r . The observed r a te o f 9 .1 fo r th e high SES was le s s th an h a lf th a t o f th e re tro sp e c tiv e m obility r a te o f 2 0 .0 . 232 I n summary, f a i r l y la rg e d iffe re n c e s were noted in p ro sp ectiv e r e s id e n tia l m o b ility r a te s by occupational m o b ility e x p ec ta tio n s. Those w ith good ex p ectatio n s had a r e s id e n tia l m o b ility r a te in te r m ediate to th e h ig h est r a te o f th e u n c e rta in ex p ec ta tio n group and th e low r a t e of th e f a i r ex p ectatio n s c ateg o ry . These r e s u lts are co n trary to our hypothesis which assumed th a t the good e x p ectatio n s group would have th e h ig h est r a te of r e s id e n tia l m o b ility . When 1961 socioeconomic s ta tu s was c o n tro lle d , no v ery larg e d iffe re n c e s were observed w ith in th e good occupational m o b ility expec ta tio n s category. On th e o th er hand, w ith in th e f a i r ex p ectatio n s groups, th e two lower SES c a te g o rie s had alm ost double th e r a te s o f th e two upper SES groups. In th e u n c e rta in ex p ectatio n s c la s s if ic a tio n , the h ig h e st r a te s o f p ro sp ectiv e r e s id e n tia l m o b ility recorded by SES were observed among the th re e low est SES groups, and th e low est r a t e recorded found in the high SES. D ifferen ces were noted between th e r e s u lts obtained by the r e tr o sp ectiv e a n a ly sis of r e s id e n tia l m o b ility re p o rte d in th e previous chapter and th e p ro sp e ctiv e r a te s rep o rte d in t h i s c h a p te r. O verall r a te s were r e la tiv e ly sim ila r fo r th e good and f a i r ex p ectatio n s c a te g o rie s; however, a major d iffe re n c e was noted between re tro sp e c tiv e and observed r e s id e n tia l m o b ility in th e u n c e rta in ex p ectatio n s group. The p ro sp e ctiv e m o b ility was much higher than re tro s p e c tiv e geographic m o b ility . The o v e ra ll r a te s o f re tro s p e c tiv e and observed m o b ility , th en , were about th e same fo r both a n aly se s. However, in th e re tro s p e c tiv e a n a ly s is , the low er SES groups had higher m o b ility r a t e s . For 233 p ro sp ectiv e m o b ility , th e ra te s were about equal throughout a l l SES c a te g o rie s . The o v e ra ll r a te s of re tro s p e c tiv e and observed geographic m o b ility fo r th e f a i r group a lso were very sim ila r. In the retro sp e c tiv e a n a ly sis a l l o f th e groups had sim ila r r a te s except fo r th e high- middle stratum which had a r a te le s s than o n e -th ird th a t of th e other c a te g o rie s. The major d iffe re n c e between re tro s p e c tiv e and p ro sp ectiv e mobili ty occurred in th e u n c ertain ex p ectatio n s c la s s if ic a tio n . Only in th e low-middle SES were sim ila r r a te s found. The prospective m o b ility r a te s fo r th e low SES was alm ost double th a t o f re tro sp e c tiv e moves; and in the high-m iddle group, the re tro s p e c tiv e m o b ility ra te was only about o n e -th ird th a t of th e observed r a te . I I I . O ccupational M obility E x p ectatio n s, Occupational C areer P a tte rn s , and P rospective " R e s id e n tia l M obility In t h is se c tio n , th e hypothesis th a t th e re w ill be d ifferen c e s in p ro sp ectiv e r e s id e n tia l m o b ility r a te s by occupational career p a tte rn s i s examined. I t was hypothesized th a t the upwardly mobile would have a h igher r a te o f geographic moves th an those w ith an occupational c a re e r p a tte r n , or who were occupationally s ta b le . The prospective r e s id e n tia l m o b ility N*s and r a te s are shown in Tables 61 and 62. In every occupation al m o b ility expectations c la s s if ic a tio n our hypothesis was r e je c te d . In th e good expectations group, the h ig h est r a te of observed r e s id e n tia l m o b ility of 31.6 was recorded fo r th e f lu c tu a tin g career p a tte r n . The upwardly mobile had the n ex t to h ig h est 23h Table 61 - P rospective R e sid e n tia l M o b ility by O ccapational M obility E xpectations and O ccupational C areer P a tte rn s ________ O ccupational M obility E xpectations______ O ccupational Good F a ir U ncertain H Career P a tte rn s B f N M M Bf H H M S ta tio n a ry 60 209 26 163 10 32 5oo Opwardly Mobile 31 79 13 h i 3 U 171 Downwardly Mobile 6 28 5 11 5 0 55 F lu c tu a tin g 6 13 3 7 0 2 31 T o tal 103 329 Itf 222 18 38 757 235 Table 62 - R ates of P rospective R e sid e n tia l M obility by O ccupational M obility E xpectations and O ccupational C areer P a tte rn s Occupational Mobility Expectations Occupational Career Patterns Good Fair Uncertain N Stationary 22.3 13.8 23.8 5oo Upwardly Mobile 28.2 2U.1 U 2.8 171 Downwardly Mobile 17.6 31.2 100.0 55 Fluctuating 31.6 30.0 0.0 31 Overall Rate 23.8 17.5 32.1 757 236 r a te o f 2. 8*2 which sta n d s in c o n tra s t to th e s ta tio n a ry r a te of 22.3 and th e downwardly m o b iles' r a te o f 17.6. The h ig h e st r a te s o f p ro sp ectiv e geographic n o b ility f o r the f a i r o ccu p atio n al m o b ility e x p ec ta tio n s category were recorded fo r th e down w ardly mobile and those w ith a flu c tu a tin g c aree r p a tte rn ; th e r a te s were 31*2 and 30.0, re s p e c tiv e ly . The upwardly m obile had a r a te of 2iw l and th e s ta tio n a ry 3 ' r a te was 1 3 .8 . A g re a t range o f r a te s were recorded fo r th e u n c e rta in ex p ectatio n s c la s s if ic a tio n . The downwardly mobile who had u n c e rta in e x p ec ta tio n s, to a man, moved — w ith a con sequent r a te o f 100.0. The upwardly mobile who had u n c ertain expecta tio n s had a r e s id e n tia l m o b ility r a t e o f 1 *2.8 and the s ta tio n a ry re corded a r a te of 23 .8 . On th e o th e r hand, fo r those w ith u n certain ex p ec ta tio n s who had a flu c tu a tin g career p a tte rn ,, not one person moved during th e one year p e rio d — f o r a r a te o f 0 .0 . The range w ith in th e u n c e rta in ex p ectatio n s groups th e n ranged from 100.0 recorded fo r th e downwardly mobile to 0 .0 fo r th e flu c tu a tin g c a re e r p a ttern * As noted p re v io u sly , the o v e ra ll r e s id e n tia l m o b ility r a te of r e tro s p e c tiv e and p ro sp ectiv e r e s id e n tia l m o b ility f o r those who re p o rte d th e ir occupational m o b ility ex p ectatio n s as being good were s im ila r. W ithin occupational c a re e r p a tte r n s , d iffe re n c e s were noted. The s ta tio n a ry in th e re tro s p e c tiv e a n a ly sis had a m o b ility r a te o f 20.8 whereas fo r p ro sp ectiv e r e s id e n tia l m o b ility th e r a te i s 22.3* The up w ardly m obiles1 p ro sp ectiv e geographic m o b ility r a te was 28.3 compared to th e r a te of 33*6 fo r re tro s p e c tiv e m o b ility . A c o n tra s t also was noted fo r th e downwardly mobile w ith an observed m o b ility r a te of 17*6 compared to a re tro s p e c tiv e r a te o f 11.8. For those w ith flu c tu a tin g 237 career p a tte rn s , the re tro sp e c tiv e r a te o f m obility was 36.8 in c o n tra st to the p ro sp ectiv e m o b ility r a te o f 31*6* None o f th ese d iffe re n c e s are very la rg e and p o ssib ly may be a r e s u l t of measurement e rr o r . F a ir m o b ility expectations o v e ra ll r a te s o f r e s id e n tia l m obility were approxim ately th e same fo r both re tro sp e c tiv e and observed m obili ty w ith r a te s o f 16.7 and 17.5 > , re s p e c tiv e ly . However, when occupa tio n a l c aree r p a tte rn s were c o n tro lle d , d iffe re n c e s in r a te s occurred. N evertheless, the s ta tio n a ry r e s id e n tia l m o b ility r a te s were n early the same fo r both re tro sp e c tiv e and p rospective m o b ility . On the other hand, th e upwardly mobiles* re tro sp e c tiv e r a te was 1 8 .5 > compared to an observed geographic m obility r a te of 2U.1. Higher r a te s of p rospective m obility w ith in the downwardly mobile group were a lso noted when com pared to the re tro s p e c tiv e r a te . The observed r a te was 31.2 whereas the re tro sp e c tiv e r e s id e n tia l m obility r a t e was 25.0, The r a t e o f pro spective r e s id e n tia l moves by those w ith a flu c tu a tin g career p a tte rn was 30.0 which can be compared to a re tro sp e c tiv e r a te of 20. 0, The la rg e d iffe re n c e s in r e s id e n tia l m obility r a te s found between prospective and re tro sp e c tiv e m obility was c a rrie d over in to an a n a ly s is by occupational career p a tte rn s . A ra te o f 16.7 was recorded fo r those who ra te d th e ir occupational m obility ex p ectatio n s as being u n c ertain and those who had sta tio n a ry career p a tte rn s . This stands in co n tra st to th e r a te o f 23.8 fo r prospective m o b ility by persons in th e same c la s s if ic a tio n . The re tro sp e c tiv e re s id e n tia l m o b ility r a te fo r the upwardly mobile who had u n certain expectations was 28.6 whereas fo r persons who had observed r e s id e n tia l m o b ility in th e same category , the ra te was U 2. 8. 238 The p ro sp ectiv e r e s id e n tia l m o b ility r a te fo r th e downwardly mo b ile who had u n c e rta in m o b ility ex p ectatio n s was 100,0. The re tro sp e c tiv e m o b ility r a t e was UO.O. In both p ro sp e c tiv e and re tro s p e c tiv e a n aly se s, no r e s id e n tia l moves were recorded f o r those w ith a flu c tu a tin g c a re e r p a tte rn * To sum narize, in t h is se c tio n th e hypothesis o f d if f e r e n tia l r a te s by occupational c a re e r p a tte rn s was te s te d , and d iffe re n c e s between re tro s p e c tiv e and p ro sp e ctiv e analyses o f r e s id e n tia l m o b ility were noted. I n every o ccupational m o b ility e x p ec ta tio n s c la s s if ic a tio n our hypothesis was r e je c te d . I n th e good ex p ectatio n s group, the h ig h est r a te o f p ro sp ectiv e geographic m o b ility was recorded fo r the flu c tu a tin g c a re e r p a tte r n w ith th e upwardly mobile having the next h ig h est r a te o f r e s id e n tia l m o b ility . For th e f a i r ex p ectatio n s group, th e h ig h e st r a te o f geographic m o b ility was recorded fo r th e downwardly mobile and flu c tu a tin g c a re e r p a tte rn s . The g re a te s t range of r e s i d e n tia l m o b ility r a te s were recorded in th e u n c e rta in o ccupational m o b ility ex p ectatio n s c la s s if ic a tio n . Every one o f the downwardly mo b ile made a r e s id e n tia l move and th e downwardly mobile had a r a te la r g e r th a n any observed f o r a l l o f th e o th er su b classes in th is ana l y s i s . On th e o th e r hand, no moves were made by persons w ith a f lu e - tu a tin g c aree r p a tte r n who had u n c e rta in occupational m o b ility expecta tio n s . In a conparison o f re tro s p e c tiv e and p ro sp ectiv e r e s id e n tia l mobi l i t y r a t e s , th e o v e ra ll r e s id e n tia l m o b ility r a t e s fo r th o se who re p o rt ed t h e i r o ccu p atio n al m o b ility ex p ectatio n s as being good and f a i r were 239 q u ite s im ila r. However, w ith in occupational c aree r p a tte r n s , d ifferen c e s were noted. I n th e good occupational m o b ility ex p ectatio n s c la s s if ic a tio n , d iv erg en t r a te s were found in every SES except th e lo w est. In the f a i r ex p ectatio n s group d iffe re n t r e s u lts were noted again except in the low SES* In a comparison o f re tro sp e c tiv e and p ro sp ectiv e r e s i d e n tia l m o b ility w ith in the u n c e rta in expectations group, th e flu c tu a tin g career p a tte r n in both in stan c es had no moves reco rd ed . Higher r a te s fo r a n o th er occupational c aree r p a tte rn s were recorded fo r pro sp ectiv e geographic m o b ility when compared to re tro sp e c tiv e moves. Our o v e ra ll conclusion i s th a t the hypothesis which suggests th a t the upwardly mobile would have a higher r a te of geographic moves than those w ith an occupational c aree r p a tte rn o f downward m o b ility , or those who had a flu c tu a tin g career p a tte rn , or who were o ccupationally s ta b le must be re je c te d . In some comparisons, th e upwardly mobile do have higher r a te s than do some of the c a te g o rie s, b u t not in one over a l l comparison do th e upwardly mobile have th e h ig h est p rospective r a te s . 17. O ccupational M obility E x p ectatio n s. In te rg e n e ra tio n a l O ccupational M obility, and P rospective R e sid e n tia l M obility ---------- An a n a ly sis o f p ro sp ectiv e geographic m o b ility in re s p e c t to in te r g e n eratio n al occupational m o b ility i s undertaken in th is s e c tio n . In a d d itio n , a comparison o f th e r e s u lts of th e re tro sp e c tiv e r e s id e n tia l m o b ility and in te rg e n e ra tio n a l occupational m o b ility r e s u lts rep o rte d in the l a s t chapter are compared to the r e s u lts obtained in th is 2 k 0 chapter fo r prospective r e s id e n tia l m o b ility . The r e s u lts o f the pro spective geographic m o b ility and in te rg e n e ra tio n a l occupational m obili ty a n a ly sis are shown in Tables 63 and 6h. For those who rep o rted good occupational m o b ility expectations, th e h ig h est ra te o f observed re s id e n tia l m obility o f 28.6 was recorded fo r the in te rg e n e ra tio n a lly s ta b le . The next h ig h est ra te o f 22.5 was recorded fo r the upwardly m obile, and the low est r a te of 17.2 was found in th e downwardly mobile category. In the f a i r expectations group, id e n tic a l r a te s of 17.0 were recorded. The downwardly mobile had a movement ra te of 1 2 .5 . In th e u n certain expectations category, th e highest r a te o f ijl.7 was recorded fo r th e upwardly m obile, although th e s ta tio n a ry had an alm ost as high r a te o f 38.1 . The downwardly m obile, as in the other two c ateg o ries of ex p ectatio n s, had the low est ra te of 1 8 .8 . The hypothesis th a t th e in te rg e n e ra tio n a lly upwardly mobile would have higher r a te s of r e s id e n tia l m o b ility than the in te rg e n e ra tio n a lly s ta b le or downwardly mobile was p a r tia lly v e rifie d . In the f a ir ex p e c ta tio n s group, the upwardly mobile had as high a ra te as the s ta tio n a ry which was the h ig h est r e s id e n tia l m obility ra te recorded fo r th a t category. I n the u n certain category the upwardly mobile had th e highest r a te although the sta tio n a ry had n early as high a r a te . H ow ev er, in th e good expectations group, the highest r a te of re s id e n tia l m obility was recorded fo r those who were in te rg e n e ra tio n a lly s ta b le . The upwardly mobile had an interm ediate r a te between the h ig h est and low est recorded. In comparing re tro sp e c tiv e and prospective r e s id e n tia l m obility 2 I p . Table 63 - Prospective R e sid e n tia l M obility by Occupational M obility E xpectations and In te rg e n e ra tio n a l O ccupational M obility Occupational Mobility Expectations Inter generational Good Fair Uncertain N Occupational Mobility M MM M NM H NM S ta tio n a ry U O 100 18 88 8 13 267 Upwardly Mobile U8 165 18 88 5 7 331 Downwardly Mobile 10 U 8 5 35 3 13 11U T o ta l 98 313 l a 3 1 16 33 712 2 l£ Table 61; - H ates off P r o t e c t iv e R e sid e n tia l M obility by O ccupational M obility- SEipecfai.-Sio P s and In te rg e n e ra tio n a l O ccupational M obility O ccupational M obility E xpectations I n te r g e n eratio n al O ccupational M obility (E m cdi F a ir U ncertain N S ta tio n a ry 2 1 6 1 7 .0 38.1 267 Upwardly Mobile 2 2 .? 1 7 .0 10-.7 331 Downwardly Mobile 3LM 1 2 .? 18.8 111; O verall S ate 23L® 16.3 32.6 712 r a te s by occupational m o b ility ex p ectatio n s and In te rg e n e ra tio n a l occu p a tio n a l m o b ility , in the good ex p ectatio n s group sim ila r r a te s were recorded fo r a l l of the in te rg e n e ra tio n a l m o b ility c a te g o rie s . H ow ev er, in the f a i r ex p ectatio n s group, only th e in te rg e n e ra tio n a lly s ta b le had sim ila r r e s id e n tia l m o b ility r a t e s . The re tro sp e c tiv e r e s i d e n tia l m obility r a te was 13.2 compared to a pro sp ectiv e r a te of 17.0. Major d iffe re n c e s were found fo r those w ith u n certain e x p ec ta tio n s. The re tro sp e c tiv e geographic m o b ility r a te fo r th e in te rg e n e ra tio n a lly s ta b le was 19*0 compared to a pro sp ectiv e r a te double th a t of 38*1* An even g re a te r v a ria tio n was recorded fo r th e downwardly m obile. The prospective r e s id e n tia l m o b ility r a te was 1 8 .8 , or over th re e tim es th a t of the re tro s p e c tiv e m o b ility r a te o f 6 .2 . A d ifferen c e also was recorded fo r the upwardly m obile, although th e range was not as g re a t. The observed r a te was 1*1*7 whereas the re tro s p e c tiv e r a te was 33*3* In summary th e a n aly sis of p ro sp ectiv e geographic m o b ility and in te rg e n e ra tio n a l occupational m o b ility undertaken in th is se c tio n r e s u lte d in p a r t i a l acceptance of the hypothesis th a t the in te rg en e ra tio n a lly upwardly mobile would have higher ra te s of geographic m o b ility than the in te rg e n e ra tio n a lly sta b le or downwardly mobile* In the f a i r expectations group, the upwardly mobile had as high a r a te as the s ta tio n a ry which was th e h ig h est r a te recorded fo r th a t category. In th e u n c ertain category, the upwardly mobile did have th e h ig h est r a te r e corded although the s ta tio n a ry s 1 r a te approached i t . However, in the good expectations category, the h ig h est r a te of r e s id e n tia l m obility was recorded fo r those who were in te rg e n e ra tio n a lly s ta b le . 2b h In comparing retrospective with prospective residential mobility rates, major discrepancies sere noted. However, in the good expecta tions category, similar rates were observed for all of the intergenera tional mobility categories. The greatest discrepancies between the retrospective and prospective analysis occurred in the uncertain ex pectations category. The observed mobility rate was twice that of the retrospective rate in the stationary class. The upwardly mobile had a higher prospective rate than retrospective rate, and the rate of ob served mobility for the downwardly mobile was three times that of the retrospective rate. Within the fair occupational mobility expectations category, simi lar rates were observed for the intergenerationally stable, but the ■ — prospective rate of residential mobility was somewhat greater than the retrospective rate for the w*aardly mobile. On the other hand, the retrospective residential mobility rate was slightly higher than the observed mobility rate for those who were downwardly mobile. Our overall conclusion Is that the hypothesis interrelating geo graphic mobility and intergenerational occupational mobility and occu pational mobility expectations will have to be reformulated. In addi tion, contrary to our previous comparisons, it appears that a retro spective analysis of geographic mobility cannot be substituted for prospective mobility when the consideration of occupational mobility expectations and intergenerational occupational mobility are the subject of study. 17. Summary This chapter continues the analyses undertaken in the previous chapter which related occupational mobility expectations to retrospec tive residential mobility. In this chapter analyses of prospective geographic mobility in respect to occupational mobility expectations . are undertaken with male head of household's 1961 socioeconomic status, occupational career patterns, and intergenerational mobility controlled. In addition, the results of the retrospective and prospective residen tial mobility analyses are compared. Our major hypotheses were that the upper socioeconomic groups, the occupationally upwardly mobile, and the intergenerationally upwardly mobile would have higher residential mobility rates than their counterparts. Fairly large differences were noted in prospective residential mobility rates by occupational mobility expectations. Those with good expectations had a residential mobility rate intermediate to the high est rate of the uncertain expectation group and the low rate of the fair expectations category. These results, of course, were contrary to our hypothesis. When socioeconomic status was controlled, no very large differences were observed within the good occupational mobility expectations category. On the other hand, within the fair expectations group, the two lower SGS strata had almost double the rates of the two upper SES levels. In the uncertain expectations classification, the highest rates were recorded among the three lowest SES groups, and the lowest rates observed were found in the high SES. 2 1 * 6 In every occupational mobility expectations classification, the hypothesis that there would be differential residential mobility rates by occupational career patterns was rejected. The greatest range of mobility rates were recorded in the uncertain occupational mobility ex pectations category* Every one of the downwardly mobile made a resi dential move, and, on the other hand, no moves were made by persons with a fluctuating career pattern. The analysis of prospective geographic mobility and intergenera tional occupational mobility resulted in partial acceptance of the hy pothesis that the intergenerationally upwardly mobile would have higher rates of geographic mobility than other classifications. In both the fair and uncertain categories the upwardly mobile had the highest rates of geographic mobility. On the other hand, in the good expectations group, the stationary had the highest rates. In a comparison of retrospective and prospective residential mo bility, overall rates were relatively similar for both the good and fair expectations categories; however, a major difference was noted between retrospective and prospective geographic mobility in the un certain expectations group. The observed mobility was much higher than retrospective geographic mobility. When SES was controlled, differential rates were found in respect to whether retrospective or prospective residential mobility was the criterion measure. When occupational career patterns were controlled, divergent rates were noted for retrospective and prospective rates. In addition, when intergenerational occupational mobility was held constant, diver gencies between the retrospective and prospective analyses were noted. Our overall conclusion is that in almost every case, whether re trospective or prospective residential mobility is the criterion measure, our hypotheses need reformulation. Furthermore, in contrast to previous analyses in this report which indicated that these two measures could be utilized interchangeably without too much loss of information, our present data indicate that these measures cannot be considered the same when occupational mobility expectations are the subject of analysis. C H A PTER XI SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS I. Summary This study took as its task the evaluation of the relationship of vertical to horizontal mobility. This analysis was deemed necessary inasmuch as most previous studies focused on either vertical or hori zontal mobility and did not systematically study their interrelation ships. In addition, a number of researchers have pointed out the theo retical and empirical necessity for this type of investigation. The research herein reported duplicated some aspects of previously conducted intrametropolitan residential mobility research, and repli cated some previous social mobility research. In addition, for the first time, this study systematically and empirically interrelated resi dential mobility and vertical mobility. This research, then, is an extension of current knowledge and makes a contribution to the under standing of occupational changes and their relationship to residential moves and their possible influence upon the contemporary ecological and social structure of urban communities. The locus of this research was the Los Angeles Standard Metropoli tan Statistical Area. A major element of the sample design was that it should reflect a variety of suburbs, skid roads, recreational towns, retirement villages, and hamlets found within the urban complex. The 2 2 + 9 procedure used was to s e le c t a la rg e number o f census t r a c t s and to ob t a i n a sm all number o f in terv iew s w ith in each t r a c t . A m u ltistag e a re a p ro b a b ility sample technique was used f o r housing u n it s e le c tio n , and respondents w ith in households were s e le c te d by a random p ro ced u re. The response r a t e fo r the a v a ila b le sam ple, which excludes unlocated po t e n t i a l resp o n d en ts, was 92.5 p e r c e n t. Follow-up in terv iew s took p la c e one y ear a f te r the i n i t i a l in te rv ie w , and a t th a t tim e determ ina tio n of observed p ro sp e c tiv e r e s id e n tia l m o b ility was made. The interview schedule evolved from a review of literature and from results of two exploratory studies, and was constructed so that a nunfcer of criterion residential mobility measures were obtained and enough information to determine if intra- or intergenerational occupa tional mobility had occurred. Changes, both "real1 1 and perceived, were measured by these variables. The theoretical basis of this research was more correctly described as a general frame of orientation. No theoretical framework currently exists which interrelates horizontal and vertical mobility. However, a number of hypotheses for test were gleaned from the literature and several pretests, but no adequate theory was discovered. We have not taken as part of our task the elaboration of a theory; nevertheless, one of the contributions of this research is the expected progress that will be made toward a limited theory with tentatively supported propositions. The major concepts utilized in this study were defined and empiri cal indicators for each were delineated. Primary concepts were head of household, socioeconomic status, social mobility and its components of 250 intra- and intergenerational mobility, occupational career patterns, occupational mobility expectations, and prospective horizontal mobility which was divided into choice, plans, and observed. In addition, re trospective moves were dichotomized into local and long-distance com ponents. Specific hypotheses for test were formulated* No effort was made to cover all conceivable assumptions that might be tested by these data; rather our focus was on determination of the relationship of career and intergenerational occupational mobility to geographic mobility. Our strategy was to delineate and test hypotheses concerned with the in ternal relationships in career and occupational mobility, and then to make assumptions which would test the interrelationship of vertical to horizontal mobility. Before testing the assumptions, methodological problems in measur ing career and intergenerational occupational mobility were discussed from two different perspectives. First, methodological considerations prior to statistical measurement were discussed; these problems in cluded the ever-increasing number of urbanizing farmers, the life cycle, career history, and their relationship to mobility. Finally, attendant problems of categorization and categorization cross classification problems were elaborated upon. Second, the statistical indexes of stability index, index of association, 1 coefficient, and Gamma utilized in this research were described. Residential mobility criterion measures of prospective choice, plans, and observed mobility were delineated. In addition, retrospec tive measures of residential mobility were described and the 251 dichotomization of movers into local and long-distance components was discussed* Finally, the empirical analysis which interrelated the various vertical and horizontal measures was reported* IX. Conclusions The conclusions that follow are based upon the results of this empirically based research. These data are from one Standard Metropoli tan Statistical Area and as such must be considered the results of a case study. Earlier we discussed the "typicality"1 of Los Angeles as an urban area. Tentatively, the conclusion reached was that Los Angeles is somewhat typical of American urban centers in many respects and in others is a prototype of future American urban complexes* Some data, however, were available which indicated that the migration experience of the Los Angeles white population was somewhat different from that experienced by other large metropolitan centers On the other hand, our empirically obtained results of occupational mobility which could be compared with similar types of investigations of other metropolitan areas and in comparison with nationally obtained data indicate that Los Angeles is fairly typical in these matters. At least two definite conclusions can be made, at least one of which has a high probability of correctness. Before either can 1 Taeuber, Karl E. and Alma F. Taeuber, "White Migration and Socio- Economic Differences Between Cities and Suburbs," American Sociological Review, 29 (October, 1?6U), pp. 718-729. 252 conclusively be accepted, replication of this research must be carried out in a variety of metropolitan centers. The two alternative and com peting conclusions we have reached are as follows: 1) The Los Angeles experience of intrametropolitan residential mobility is atypical of metropolitan populations in general. 2) If the Los Angeles experience of residential mobility is typi cal of large metropolitan centers in the United States, cur rent speculations concerning geographic movement of persons within and between metropolitan areas require almost complete revision. In the discussion that follows, we shall assume that Los Angeles is typical and the conclusions will be accepted as being generally applicable to other large scale metropolitan areas. Nevertheless, if one is so disposed, they may be viewed as applying only to the Los Angeles Standard Metropolitan Statistical Area. In defense of our point of view, we should like to point out that this is the only syste matically applied research endeavor which has tested most of the resi dential mobility related hypotheses enumerated in this report. For the vertical mobility aspects of this research which have been empirically studied by others and for which this investigation can be viewed as a replication, the results are fully comparable. It is only when we en tered the previously unexplored arena of the interrelationship of va rious occupational variables to the residential mobility criterion measures that our results conflict with the previous speculative litera ture. In short, some of the analyses that we have reported in some degree replicates previous vertical occupational mobility research and 253 our fin d in g s mainly are c o n s is te n t. On th e other hand, when we te s te d sp ecu latio n s concerning the re la tio n s h ip o f occupational changes to r e s id e n tia l moves, our sy ste m atica lly and em p iric a lly obtained r e s u lts were such to suggest th a t alm ost complete refo rm u latio n o f form erly accepted notions must be undertaken. S o c ia l or v e r tic a l m o b ility was analyzed from the i n tr a - and in te r g e n eratio n al p ersp ectiv e in t h i s re se a rc h . The te s te d hypotheses sub s ta n tia lly were based upon previous re se a rc h and these hypotheses, w ith very few exceptions, were v e rif ie d . Among o th er th in g s , th e v e r if ic a tio n of th ese hypotheses in d ic a te s th a t in comparisons w ith research conducted in other m etropolitan areas and c o u n tries a t e a r lie r and near contemporary tim es, the Los Angeles s o c ia l m o b ility experience i s ra th e r ty p ic a l and was p re d ic te d q u ite w e ll. A dditional hypotheses might be form ulated which would not be contrahypotheses b u t would tem p er the hypotheses as now p o stu la te d by in d ic a tin g th a t w ith in some c a te g o rie s the ty p ic a l o v e ra ll so c ia l m o b ility i s not experienced. As a suggestive example o f the above, our accepted hypothesis con cerning career m obility which sta te d t h a t "no more than h a lf of the persons in any given occupational c la s s w ill have held an occupation o u tsid e th a t c la ss" could be tempered w ith c o ro lla ry hypotheses which would be more s p e c ific in re s p e c t to cla33 of o r ig in . The above hypo th e s is has been v e rifie d , b u t by sp ecify in g c la ss of o rig in t h is hypo th e s is apparently could be reform ulated in to a number of hypotheses which would have more relevance fo r th e study of occupations and th e c u rre n t s o c ia l stru c tu re o f American c i t i e s . As a m atter o f rec o rd , our c o ro lla ry hypothesis t h a t the in c lu sio n or exclusion of farm ers 25k and their sons would not unduly effect the outcome was verified* The hypothesis discussed above was concerned with the amount of social Mobility. A second concern of career mobility was that of the distance factor. We tested the hypothesis that if occupational mobility occurs, it is most likely to be across adjacent occupational classes. And, as with the previous hypothesis, both the hypothesis and its corollary were substantiated. Our assumption concerning the extent of upward and downward career mobility was such that the overall hypothe sis was verified. However, there was a suggestion that downward mo bility is more prevelant than upward mobility in the high-middle SES group. Again, while the overall hypothesis was accepted, further re finement appears to be required. The overall conclusion concerning occupational career mobility is that Los Angeles is fairly typical and that the inclusion of farmers* sons in the analysis did not result in unexpected or unwarranted results. Hypotheses concerning intergenerational occupational mobility were tested in this research and some revisions appear to be ne cessary, al though, again most of these changes are more in the manner of increas ing specificity rather than complete reformulation of the original hy potheses. Upon the basis of the analyses reported in Chapter 17, the conclusion is that there was mare intergenerational than occupational career Mobility. It was further concluded that the intergenerational occupational mobility experience of the sons in this sample is very similar to that reported for sons from a variety of other areas and over various time periods. 2 55 Tn Chapter V, th e r e s id e n tia l m obility c rite r io n measures of pro sp ectiv e choice, p la n s , and observed, and the re tro sp e c tiv e measures o f lo c a l anrf lo n g -d istan ce components were d e lin e a te d . In a d d itio n , th e r e s id e n tia l m o b ility experiences of th e sample was described. In Chapter V I, th e re la tio n s h ip of these c r ite r io n measures to the occupa tio n a l dimensions i s rep o rte d . I t appears th a t th e prospective m obili t y o f ch o ice, p la n s , and observed r e s id e n tia l m obility cannot be used in terchangeably. On th e other hand, th ere was some in d ic a tio n th a t th e c r ite r io n measures of pro sp ectiv e observed m obility and re tro s p e c tiv e ly rep o rte d r e s id e n tia l m o b ility experiences can be used interchangeably in an a n a ly sis o f i n tr a - and in te rg e n e ra tio n a l occupational m o b ility . Chapter VI i ll u s t r a te d th e re la tio n s h ip of r e s id e n tia l moves to head o f household's SES' a t various p o in ts in tim e, to occupational c aree r p a tte rn s and to in te rg e n e ra tio n a l m o b ility . Our a n a ly sis in d ic a te d th a t th e re was a strong tendency fo r prospective choice, p lan ned, and observed moves, as w ell as re tro sp e c tiv e m o b ility , to have - been made by those persons in the lower SES s t r a ta . There were s lig h t d e v ia tio n s from t h is g e n e ra liz a tio n depending upon p o in t in time of comparison. However, the rem arkable finding i s the consistency of the r e s id e n tia l movement experienced by th e low SES no m atter which time p e rio d i s used as a comparison. There a re evident lin k s between occupational m o b ility , both career and in te rg e n e ra tio n a l, and r e s id e n tia l moves; however, th e connection i s n o t n e a rly as strong as one would suspect a f te r a p e ru sa l o f the l it e r a t u r e upon th e su b je c t. I t i s p la u s ib le th a t the re la tio n sh ip i s n o t a s stro n g in th is p a rtic u la r m etropolitan area a t t h is p a rtic u la r 256 time i n comparison w ith o th er areas a t other time p e rio d s. However, the p o s s ib ility a ls o e x is ts th a t previous w rite rs have o v e rstated th e ir case. T his l a t t e r a lte rn a tiv e i s th e one th a t we would accep t. In Chapters V II and V III, a d d itio n a l analyses of th e in flu en ce of occupational SES, occupational career p a tte rn s , and in te rg e n e ra tio n a l m o b ility upon r e s id e n tia l m o b ility are undertaken. For both prospective and re tro sp e c tiv e r e s id e n tia l moves, when a number o f v a ria b le s were c o n tro lle d , we te n ta tiv e ly concluded th a t SES i s a r e la tiv e ly minor fa c to r in in tra m e tro p o lita n re s id e n tia l moves. This fin d in g , however, i s in disagreem ent w ith most o f the sp ecu lativ e l it e r a t u r e which suggests th a t th e r e s id e n tia lly mobile are more lik e ly to be i n the upper SES and e s p e c ia lly those who have dem onstrated up ward m o b ility in th e ir occupational c a re e rs. This expected fin d in g was not observed. ■ W hen re tro sp e c tiv e movers were d e lin ea ted in to lo c a l and long d istan ce components, our hypotheses once more were re je c te d . The high e s t r a te s of both lo c a l and lo n g -d istan ce movers were made by persons in th e low est SES c a te g o rie s. The unexpected r e s u lts suggest th a t r e form ulation of hypotheses concerning career p a tte rn s and r e s id e n tia l moves a re in o rd e r. In an a n a ly sis of th e in flu en ce of in te rg e n e ra tio n a l occupational m o b ility upon geographic moves, se v e ra l v a ria b le s were held c o n stan t. The o v e ra ll conclusion was th a t much o f the previous sp ecu lativ e l i t e r a tu re was in e rr o r . Our fin d in g s are ra th e r c o n s is te n t, and they in d i cate th a t the in te rg e n e ra tio n a lly upwardly mobile are le s s lik e ly th an the s ta tio n a ry to make a r e s id e n tia l move. I n sh o rt, th e lit e r a t u r e 257 d id n o t p re d ic t w ith in the b ro ad est ran g e nsE ginable th e r e s id e n tia l m o b ility experience o f th e Los Angeles jan g S . l i t a d d itio n , most of th e * r e s u lts were com pletely co n trary t o hypotheses concern in g in tra m e tro p o lita n r e s id e n tia l mibiSZBifcy aauf m ig ratio n , i t appears, need to be re-exam ined by a d d itio n a l re se a rc h endeavors. * The fin d in g s are such th a t i t appears dm subsequent in v e s tig a tio n s th e se r e s u lts w ill be su b s ta n tia te d and -saH E L mrnw th a t much o f the sp e c u la tiv e l it e r a t u r e i s in e r r o r . O ccupational m o b ility e x p ec ta tio n s sand fiftfffr re la tio n s h ip to r e tro s p e c tiv e r e s id e n tia l m o b ility was je p u rhatE i n C hapters IS and X. Our conclusion was t h a t th ere a re d iffsrsrfc aechanxsms in o p eratio n in so fa r as ex p ectatio n s and th e i r r elatiunglmg.' tax geographic moves. Good ex p ectatio n s appeared to be m or e aw W af. t a local, or in tram etro p o lita n moves whereas u n c e rta in ty was am e rrslafced to lo _ ^ -d istan ce m o b ility . Our o v e ra ll conclusion -was •fata#- hgrnrtfaeaes concerning occu p a tio n a l m obility ex p ectatio n s and ca raaar amf in te rg e n e ra tio n a l m obili t y , and SES d if f e r e n tia ls , and t h e i r to p ro sp e ctiv e and re tro s p e c tiv e r e s id e n tia l m o b ility need r ffflhnwil a feian . A lso, in con t r a s t to th e analyses of career and irrUnr A g sieratL ana i o ccupational mo b i l i t y whore i t appeared th a t retrpspaigtfrae amf p ro sp ectiv e m o b ility measures could be used interchangeably* c d h t a n a ly sis o f o ccupational m o b ility ex p ectatio n s suggests t h a t i t wrmiBfi h e a m istake to consider th ese c r ite r io n measures as one when afld.ufiaiELrraT dimensions are p r i mary v a ria b le s . 258 I I I . Suggestions fo r F urther Research The r e s u lts of t h is resea rch have suggested more questions than th ey have answered. A few of the questions th a t have been ra is e d are discussed below. The l i s t c e rta in ly i s not exhaustive and contains only what i s considered as being the most re le v a n t fo r forthcoming r e search endeavors. A g re a t d eal o f th is research has involved th e assignm ent of occu p atio n s in to a system which has then collapsed in to a fo u r-fo ld c la s s i f ic a tio n . To f u lly evaluate the in flu en ce of occupations upon r e s i d e n tia l moves, fu rth e r a n a ly sis by s i t u s , or w ith in the occupational stratum as d efin ed , appears to be necessary. The s itu s a n a ly sis should prove to be e sp e c ia lly f r u i t f u l i f such a sso ciated fa c to rs as income in c re a se s, r e la tiv e p re s tig e of firm , and other concom itants of occupa tio n a l change are taken in to c o n sid era tio n . Another area of research th a t should prove to be e sp e c ia lly bene f i c i a l would be to go beyond th e comparison of fa th e r and son which misses some of th e most s ig n ific a n t aspects of s o c ia l m o b ility . I t would seem d e sira b le to know th e c h a ra c te ris tic s of those who have been h ig h ly mobile and i f th is in tu rn e ff e c ts the r e s id e n tia l m o b ility r a te of these in d iv id u a ls . Another suggestion fo r research involves a much longer panel study than was u tiliz e d fo r t h is re se a rc h . The finding th a t th e low SES were more lik e ly to be movers th an th e upper SES groups may hold fo r other m etropolises in ad d itio n to Los Angeles. N evertheless, th is research has been a study o f those who have alread y a rriv e d in th e c ity and e ith e r moved or stayed during a subsequent p e rio d . The p o s s ib ility 259 continues to e x is t th a t m igrants to the c ity may be of th e higher SES groups. That th e re i s some confusion over th is issu e has been demon s tra te d by the c o n flic tin g re p o rts of the e x te n t of long-distance mo b i l i t y experienced by th e "o rg an izatio n men" and th e re p o rts of r e search ers who have pdnted out th a t the new m igrants to the m etropolis take manual jobs which allow s those alread y th ere to become upwardly m obile, and as th e sp ecu lativ e l it e r a t u r e now has i t — make a r e s i d e n tia l move. These c o n flic tin g sp ecu latio n s could be te s te d by a much longer lo n g itu d in a l panel study of th e r e s id e n tia l m obility experiences o f persons liv in g in a m etropolitan a rea. The r e s u lts of t h is research also re q u ire th a t a d is tin c tio n be made between th e study o f r e s id e n tia l m o b ility in subareas of th e c ity as opposed to r e s id e n tia l m obility experienced by th e c ity as a metro p o lita n complex. E a rlie r stu d ie s have stre sse d the high r a te o f r e s i d e n tia l m o b ility among c e rta in groups, i . e . , th e o rg an izatio n man, th e suburbs, etc.2 These r e s u lts are in c o n tra st w ith the previous specu la tio n s m ainly, i t i s b eliev e d , because o f th e d iffe re n c e in viewing th e m etropolis as a whole or looking a t sp e c ific areas w ith in i t . There i s no d e n ia l th a t s p e c ific subareas w ith in the m etropolitan reg io n may be having a r e s id e n tia l m o b ility experience somewhat d iffe re n t than th a t of the complex as a whole. But d iffe re n c e between one subarea of th e c ity and r e s id e n tia l m obility experienced by persons in th e e n tire complex must be recognized. These r e s u lts suggest th a t fu rth e r research 2 S ee: "The New American: liv in g Atop a C ivic Mushroom," Newsweek, A p ril 1 , 1957, pp. 35-k2; o r, W illiam H. Whyte, The O rganization Man (Garden C ity : Doubleday Anchor Books, 1957)• 260 needs to be undertaken w ith la rg e r subsamples w ith in a la rg e number of subareas w ithin th e c ity . This appears e sp e c ia lly d e sira b le to d e te r mine th e e x te n t o f occupational changes upon the changing s o c ia l s tru c tu re of th e American c ity . Furtherm ore, a study viewing th e c ity as a whole, but w ith d iffe re n tia te d subareas, should enable us to p o rtra y much more a c c u ra te ly the occupational and r e s id e n tia l m o b ility ex p eri ences o f a v a rie ty o f persons. Growing out o f the above suggested resea rch would be an a n aly sis involving th e study o f a re a of residence and i t s r e la tiv e s t a b i l i t y and m o b ility — both v e r tic a l and h o riz o n ta l. S everal resea rch e rs have suggested th a t th ere are d if f e r e n tia l r a te s of movement in and from v ario u s subareas w ithin th e city. 3 in a d d itio n , Freedman^ has rep o rte d th a t m igrant zones could be co n stru cted . What evidence i s a v a ila b le suggests th a t th e e c o lo g ic al study of mobile and sta b le areas should prove to be e s p e c ia lly advantageous to th e s o c io lo g is t, c ity planner, and other governmental a d m in istra to rs. A panel study over a ra th e r len g th y p erio d of time w ith an e co lo g ic al a n a ly s is , fo r example, would allow the te s tin g of the hypothesis th a t r e s id e n tia l m o b ility i s most 3 B u tle r, Edgar W., Georges Sabagh, and Maurice D. Van A rsdol, J r . , "Demographic and S o c ia l P sychological F acto rs in R e sid e n tia l M o b ility ," Sociology and S o c ia l R esearch, U8 (January, 1 9 6 H ) , PP« 1 3 9 -lJ J U j Warren e S '." Kalbach, George C. Myers, and John R . W alker, "M etropolitan Area M obility: A Comparative A nalysis of Fam ily S p a tia l M obility in a C en tral C ity and S elected Suburbs," S o cial Forces, 1 * 2 (March, 1 9 6 1 * ), pp. 3 1 0 - 3 1 U . k Freedman, Ronald, Recent M igration to Chicago (Chicago: Univer s i t y o f Chicago P re ss, 1 9 5 > 0 ), p . 1 1 3 * z 6 i lik e ly to occur from le s s to more prosperous a re a s ,£ or to areas where more o p p o rtu n ities e x is te d .^ F in a lly , th ese fin d in g s in d ic a te th a t th e re i s a need fo r cau tio n in dealing w ith some o f th e commonly held notions about r e s id e n tia l m o b ility th a t are n o t based on s u b s ta n tia tin g data from system atic s tu d ie s .^ They p o in t up th e need fo r more e ff o r t to be devoted to fu rth e r research based upon a la rg e number of s p e c ific sub-populations and subareas w ith in th e m etropolitan complex, and to consider th e m etropolitan complex as a whole. £ Anderson, Theodore,R., "Intermetropolitan Migration: A Correla tion Analysis," American Journal of Sociology, 6l (Miarch, 1956), pp. 1*59-1*62. 6 Stouffer, Samuel A., "Intervening Opportunities: A Theory Re lating Mobility and Distance," American Sociological Review, 5 (December, 195U), pp. 81*5-867. 7 1 Butler, Edgar W., Demographic and Social Psychological Aspects of Residential Mobility in 176s Angeles. 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Creator Butler, Edgar Wilbur (author)

Core Title An Empirical Examination Of The Relationship Of Vertical Occupational Mobility And Horizontal Residential Mobility

Degree Doctor of Philosophy

Degree Program Sociology and Anthropology

Publisher University of Southern California (original), University of Southern California. Libraries (digital)

Tag OAI-PMH Harvest,sociology, general

Language English

Contributor Digitized by ProQuest (provenance)

Advisor Van Arsdol, Maurice D., Jr. (committee chair), McDonagh, Edward C. (committee member), Meyers, Charles Edward (committee member)

Permanent Link (DOI) https://doi.org/10.25549/usctheses-c18-197755

Unique identifier UC11359854

Identifier 6607067.pdf (filename),usctheses-c18-197755 (legacy record id)

Legacy Identifier 6607067.pdf

Dmrecord 197755

Document Type Dissertation

Rights Butler, Edgar Wilbur

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Source University of Southern California (contributing entity), University of Southern California Dissertations and Theses (collection)

Access Conditions The author retains rights to his/her dissertation, thesis or other graduate work according to U.S. copyright law. Electronic access is being provided by the USC Libraries in agreement with the au...

Repository Name University of Southern California Digital Library

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