University of Southern California Dissertations and Theses

Social Components Of Housing Cost In The Western Metropolis

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Social Components Of Housing Cost In The Western Metropolis

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Content SOCIAL COM PONENTS OF HOUSING COST IN THE W ESTERN METROPOLIS by John Mark M cQuiston A D is s e r t a t i o n P re s e n te d to th e FACULTY OF THE GRADUATE SCHOOL UNIVERSITY OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA I n P a r t i a l F u lf illm e n t o f th e R eq u irem en ts f o r th e D egree DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY (S o c io lo g y ) Ju n e 1970 70-26,530 McQUISTON, John Mark, 1933- SOCIAL COMPONENTS OF HOUSING COST IN THE WESTERN METROPOLIS. University of Southern California, Ph.D., 1970 Sociology, race question University Microfilms, A X E R O X Company, Ann Arbor, Michigan C opyright by JOHN M A R K MCQUISTON | 19711 i i m u re nTccppTATTfttj h as RTTEN MICROFILMED EXACTLY AS RECEIVED UNIVERSITY O F SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THE GRADUATE SCHOOL UNIVERSITY PARK LOS ANGELES, CALI FORNIA 9 0 0 0 7 This dissertation, written by ...............J o h n . . I f e r k _ M c ^ ^ ............................. under the direction of h .l.s.. Dissertation Com mittee, and approved by all its members, has been presented to and accepted by The Gradu ate School, in partial fulfillm ent of require ments of the degree of D O C T O R OF P H IL O S O P H Y Dean D ate June_1970 DISSERTATION COMMITTEE Chairman DEDICATION T h is d i s s e r t a t i o n , sym bolic o f th e c o m p le tio n o f th e Degree o f D octor o f P h ilo so p h y i s d e d ic a te d to my p a r e n t s , M arion G e rtru d e Buckman M cQuiston and Jam es H enderson M cQuiston. ••Train up a c h ild in th e way h e sh o u ld g o : And when he i s o ld he w i l l n o t d e p a r t from i t . " — Old T estam ent iii PEEFACE T h is stu d y i s th e r e s u l t o f th e outcome o f th r e e w orks on r e s i d e n t i a l r a c i a l change co m p leted by th e a u th o r d u rin g th e l a s t two y e a r s . The f i r s t s tu d y , Negro R esid en t i a l In v a s io n i n Los A ngeles C ounty.1 found t h a t n e ig h b o r hoods c o n tig u o u s to p re v io u s ly in v a d e d n eig h b o rh o o d s have a g r e a te r , lik e lih o o d o f f u tu r e r e s i d e n t i a l r a c i a l change th a n do n o n c o n tig u o u s a r e a s . N eighborhoods c h a r a c te r iz e d by lo w e r d w e llin g u n i t v a l u e , a h ig h e r p r o p o r tio n o f young c h i l d r e n , o r a h ig h p r o p o rtio n o f o b s o le s c e n t o r o b s o le te d w e llin g s a ls o have a p ro p e n s ity to w ard Negro r a c i a l change, T here i s a ten d en cy f o r n eig h b o rh o o d s e x p e rie n c in g r a c i a l change to c l u s t e r i n g ro u p s . W ith r e f e r e n c e to n e ig h b o r hood housing, c o s t , i t was found t h a t th e Negro i s a f f e c t e d by h o u sin g c o s t to a g r e a t e r e x te n t th a n i s t h a t c o s t a f f e c t e d by th e N egro. At th e same tim e , th e r e l a t i v e h o u sin g c o s t o f a n eig h b o rh o o d i s in c r e a s in g ly becom ing a f u n c tio n o f r a c i a l m ix, w ith a r e a s w here N egroes r e s id e d e fin e d a s o f lo w er v a lu e . . I n a su b seq u en t p a p e r, "C hanging E e la tiv e H ousing j) F — —■ — n ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ i Ijo h n Mark M cQ uiston. Negro R e s id e n tia l In v a s io n i n Los A n g eles County (Los A n g eles: M cQuiston A s s o c ia te s , 1969). iv V alue i n Negro and C a u ca sian N eig h b o rh o o d s,"2 i t was shown t h a t n eig h b o rh o o d s te n d to d e c re a se i n r e l a t i v e h o u sin g c o s t lo n g b e fo re Negro r e s i d e n t i a l in v a s io n ta k e s p la c e a s a c o n tin u in g d e c lin e i n th e r e l a t i v e v a lu e o f th e t r a c t a s a p la c e o f re s id e n c e • The mere f a c t o f r a c i a l change do es n o t s u b s t a n t i a l l y a l t e r th e c o u rse o f a n e ig h b o rh o o d ’ s p ro g r e s s iv e d e c lin e i n c o s t once i t b e g in s . B a th e r th a n b ein g in v a d e d , an a r e a i s handed down to th e Negro by th e C au casian who h a s moved on to more d e s ir a b le h o u s in g . In th e t h i r d p a p e r , "A C r i t i c a l A p p ra is a l o f th e D e f in itio n o f Negro R e s id e n tia l In v a s io n — The Los A n g eles C a s e ,'1 *' i t was shown t h a t Negro r e s i d e n t i a l in v a s io n may be s a id to have o c c u rre d a t a p o in t f a r below t h a t s e t by th e ^ 5 Duncans o r T a e u b e rs. The p re se n c e o f N egroes i n a n e ig h b o rh o o d , how ever fe w , te n d s to s ig n a l th e b e g in n in g — - o f a p ro c e s s w hich w i l l p ro b a b ly be i r r e v e r s i b l e . At 2John Mark M cQ uiston. "C hanging R e la tiv e H ousing V alue i n Negro and C a u c a sia n N eig h b o rh o o d s." A p a p e r p re s e n te d a t th e 1968 M eetin g o f th e P a c i f ic S o c io lo g ic a l A s s o c ia tio n , San F r a n c is c o , C a l i f o r n i a . 3 Jo h n Mark M cQ uiston. "A C r i t i c a l A p p ra is a l o f th e D e f in itio n o f Negro R e s id e n tia l In v a s io n — The Los A n g eles C a se ." A p a p e r p r e s e n te d a t th e 1969 M eeting o f th e P a c if ic S o c io lo g ic a l A s s o c ia tio n , S e a t t l e , W ashington. li O tis D udley Duncan and B ev erly D uncan. The Negro P o p u la tio n o f C hicago:_ _ A S tudy o f R e s id e n tia l S u c c e ssio n (C h icag o : U n iv e r s ity o f Chicago P r e s s , 1957)* ^K arl £ . T aeu b er and Alma F . T ae u b er. N egroes i n C i t i e s (C h icag o : A ld in e P u b lis h in g C o ., 1965. v w h a te v e r l e v e l , th e p r o b a b i l i ty o f a d e c re a s e i n th e Negro p o p u la tio n n e v e r e x c e e d s .2 . F a r th e r , i r r e v e r s i b i l i t y i s n o t b ased on p r o p o r tio n Negro b u t s o le ly num bers o f N egroes. As few a s t h i r t y Negro r e s i d e n t s s ig n a l an i r r e v e r s i b l e p ro c e s s o f r a c i a l ch an g e. These th r e e s t u d i e s su g g e st t h a t la r g e c o n tig u o u s a r e a s te n d to d e p r e c ia te i n term s o f t h e i r r e l a t i v e v a lu e a s p la c e s o f re s id e n c e o f th e m a jo rity p o p u la tio n and th e n become a p la c e o f r e s id e n c e o f th e m in o r ity . Once d e p re c i a t e d and in h a b ite d by a r e l a t i v e l y few members o f th e m in o r ity , th e t r a c t becom es s o c ia lly u n a t t r a c t i v e to th e m a jo r ity . W e th e n have a p ic tu r e o f th e m e tro p o lis c h a ra c t e r i z e d by th e a g in g o f d w e llin g u n i t s a t th e c o re w hich th e n d e p r e c ia te i n r e l a t i v e c o s t to th e m a jo rity p o p u la tio n . As d e p r e c ia tio n o c c u rs , a r e a s a re opened to members o f e th n ic g ro u p s', m ost n o ta b ly th e N egro. Once a few members o f th o se g ro u p s ta k e re s id e n c e in th e d e p r e c ia tin g n e ig h b o rh o o d s, th e r e s i d e n t i a l d e s i r a b i l i t y o f th e n eig h b o rh o o d to th e m a jo r ity i s m in im iz ed . At th e same tim e , e th n ic r e s id e n c e i n one n eig h b o rh o o d s ig n a ls f u tu r e e th n ic change i n c o n tig u o u s n e ig h b o rh o o d s. C a rry in g t h i s p a t t e r n to i t s l o g i c a l outcom e, la r g e m asses o f la n d i n r e s i d e n t i a l u s e , p re d o m in a te ly i n th e c e n t r a l c i t y o f th e m e tr o p o lis , w ill d e p r e c ia t e , e x p e rie n c e * e th n ic o r r a c i a l change., and th e n c o n tin u e to d e p r e c ia te to vi an a s s y m p to te . T h is p a t t e r n o f d e p r e c ia t io n , r a c i a l change and f a r t h e r d e p r e c ia tio n s u g g e s ts t h a t th e v a lu e o f a n eig h b o rh o o d a s a p la c e o f re s id e n c e to a p a r t i c u l a r group i s b ased on s o c ia l s t r u c t u r a l com ponents and t h a t v a lu e i s in d e e d r e l a t i v e , n o t f i x e d . T h is stu d y exam ines th e s t r u c t u r e o f r e l a t i v e d w e llin g u n i t c o s t and c o n s tr u c ts a th e o ry o f r e s i d e n t i a l s o c i a l - s t r u c t u r a l d eterm in ism t h a t b o th e x p la in s r e l a t i v e h o u sin g c o s t and p ro v id e s a b a s is f o r a ch an g in g s tr u c t u r e o f th e m e tro p o lis from c e n t r a l dom inance to f u tu r e m u ltip le n u c le a tio n and p o l i t i c a l s e g m e n ta tio n . Many in d iv id u a ls have a id e d i n th e developm ent o f th e c o n c e p tu a l ap p ro ach to t h i s r e s e a r c h , m ost n o ta b ly G eorges S abagh, who su g g e ste d a n a ly s e s by c o s t c o h o r ts , and M aurice D. Van A rs d o l, J r . , u n d e r whose d i r e c t io n th e i n t e r - c e n s a l d a ta b ase was c o n s tr u c te d . S a n fo rd L ab o v itz h a s been a v i t a l so u rce o f g u id an ce and re in fo rc e m e n t th ro u g h o u t t h i s s tu d y . vii table: of contents Page PREFACE................................................................................... i v LIST OF TABLES........................................................................................ x i LIST OF FIG U RES.................................... XV C h ap ter I . THE DEVELOPING RESIDENTIAL STRUCTURE OF THE WESTERN AMERICAN METROPOLIS...................... 1 Some C o n co m itan ts to U nplanned Urban E x p an sio n R e s id e n tia l S e g re g a tio n s A C o ro lla ry to th e S o c ia l Downgrading o f th e Urban Core The Im pact o f S o c ia l D is c rim in a tio n on th e F u tu re o f th e Urban Core a s a P la c e o f R esid en ce S o c ia l S t r u c t u r a l F o u n d atio n s o f H ousing C ost The Scope o f T h is R esearch I I . SOCIAL STRUCTURAL COM PONENTS OF NEIGHBORHOOD RESIDENTIAL VALUE C H A N G E . . . . . . . . . . 15 The P la c e i n th e C o u n try , An Urban S ta tu s C e n trifu g e T e c h n o lo g ic a l Components o f H ousing C ost The D evelopm ent o f " S o p h is tic a te d '' M ark e tin g T ech n iq u es a s A p p lied to H ousing C o n s tru c tio n The E f f e c t o f N eighborhood Fam ily Charac t e r i s t i c s on N eighborhood D e s i r a b ilit y The E f f e c t o f R a c ia l C om position on M a r k e ta b ility Viii Chapter I I I . SOCIAL STRUCTURAL DETERMINISM IN HOUSING C O ST ............................ .................................................. A Theory o f R e la tiv e N eighborhood R e s i d e n t i a l V alue The E s ta b lis h m e n t o f a Base f o r F u tu re M o rp h o lo g ical Change Some Im p lic a tio n s o f th e T heory o f S tr u c tu r a l D eterm inism IV . AN EMPIRICAL EVALUATION OF STRUCTURAL DETERMINISM. . ......................................................... C hoosing a S u ita b le S ite f o r E v a lu a tio n The A rea o f S tudy The C hoice o f an E q u atio n T e s tin g th e E q u atio n S p e c if ic E q u a tio n s Occupancy Type and S tr u c tu r a l D eterm inism The R e la tiv e C ost o f H ousing i n a N eighborhood R e s id e n tia l S t a b i l i t y S t r u c t u r a l O bsolescence F am ily M a tu rity The P ro x im ity o f an U n ac cep tab le P o p u la tio n Group S p e c ific Methods o f A n a ly sis V . A SPATIAL ANALYSIS OF RELATIVE RESIDENTIAL COST . . . * ....................... The E f f e c t o f S o c ia l- S tr u c tu r a l Compo n e n ts on R e s id e n tia l R edevelopm ent I n h i b i t o r s to R e s id e n tia l R edevelopm ent Summary V I. MODEIS OF STRUCTURAL DETERMINISM.................... The D e s c rip tio n o f C o st, 19^0 P r e d ic tin g C ost in 1950 The D e s c rip tio n o f C o st, 1950 P r e d ic tin g Cost i n i 960 The D e s c rip tio n o f C o st, I9 6 0 A n aly ses by C ost Q u a rtile The Im portance o f R e s id e n tia l S t a b i l i t y Chapter Page V II . THE IMPACT OF STRUCTURAL DETERMINISM O N THE W ESTERN METROPOLIS . . „ . . ................... 157 The Im portance o f th e P ro x im ity o f an U n accep tab le P o p u la tio n to th e D ete r m in a tio n o f R e la tiv e H ousing C ost The E f f e c ts o f S t r u c t u r a l Components on R e la tiv e C o st o f H ousing The R elevance o f S t r u c t u r a l D eterm inism U rban S im u la tio n The Outcomes— D e te r io r a tio n and D if f e r e n t ia t i o n Summary o f C o n c lu sio n s | APPENDIX* C o r r e la tio n M a tric e s I ! BIBLIOGRAPHY....................... I 172 199 LIST OP TABLES Table Page 4 . 1 . 19*+0, 1950, i 960 H ousing In v e n to r y , U n ite d S ta te s and S e le c te d A reas . • • • • • 36 ^ . 2 . R e s id e n tia l S t a b i l i t y i n Los A ngeles County • . • . ................................ 53 ^ . 3 . R e s id e n tia l S t r u c t u r a l O b so le sc e n c e , Los A ngeles C o u n ty ......................................... . . . 56 !+.**•. P am ily M a tu rity , Los A ngeles C ounty............................... 58 5 . The P re sen c e o f an U n accep tab le P o p u la tio n , Com posite G rid , Los A ngeles C o u n ty .........................63 5 .1 . Los A ngeles County I960 D w ellin g U n it In v e n to ry by Decade o f C o n s tru c tio n .........................82 5 .2 . A verage V alu es a t Base Y e a r, Com posite C ost C o h o r t s ............................................................................8 U - 5 .3 . A verage V alu es a t Baso Y e a r, Owner O ccupied C ost C o h o rts. • ............................................85 5 A . A verage V alues a t Base Y ea r, R e n te r O ccupied C ost C o h o rts............................ 86 6 e l . The S tr u c tu r e o f R e la tiv e D w ellin g U n it C o s t, 19*+0: Com ponents, 1 9 ^ 0 ....................................... 93 6 .2 , The S tr u c tu r e o f R e la tiv e D w elling U n it C o s t, 1950: Com ponents, 1 9 ^ 0 . . . . . . . . 95 6.3. The Structure of Relative Dwelling Unit C o s t, 1950: Com ponents, 1 9 5 0 ................................. 97 6.*f. The S tr u c tu r e o f R e la tiv e D w ellin g U n it C o s t, I9 6 0 : Com ponents, 1 9 5 0 . . . . . . . . 99 xi Table Page 6.5. The S tr u c tu r e of R e la tiv e D w ellin g U n it C o s t, I9 6 0 : Com ponents, i 960 . . . . . . . 101 6 . 6 . The S tru c tu r e o f R e la tiv e D w ellin g U n it C o s t, 19^0, T ra c ts i n th e F i r s t Q u a r t i l e : Com ponents, 19* + 0. . . . . . . . . 10? 6 . 7 . The S tru c tu r e o f R e la tiv e D w ellin g U n it C o s t. 1 9^0, T r a c ts i n th e Second Q u a r tile : Com ponents, 1 9 * f0 .........................................107 6 . 8 . The S tru c tu r e o f R e la tiv e D w ellin g U n it C o s t, 1 9^0, T r a c ts i n th e T h ird Q u a r t i le : Com ponents, 1 9 ^ 0 .........................................109 6 . 9 . The S tru c tu re o f R e la tiv e D w ellin g U n it C o s t, 1 9^0, T r a c ts in th e F o u rth Q u a r tile : Com ponents, 19*+0 ........................ . I l l 6 .1 0 . The S tru c tu r e o f R e la tiv e D w ellin g U n it C o s t, 1950, T ra c ts i n th e F i r s t Q u a r tile : Com ponents, 1 9 ^ 0 .........................................113 6 .1 1 . The S tru c tu r e o f R e la tiv e D w ellin g U n it C o s t, 1950, T r a c ts in th e Second Q u a r tile : Com ponents, 19*+0.........................................115 6 .1 2 . The S tru c tu r e o f R e la tiv e D w ellin g U n it C o s t. 1950, T ra c ts i n th e T h ird Q u a r tile : Com ponents, 19^0 . . . . . . . . 118 6.13. The Structure of Relative Dwelling Unit C o s t. 1950, T ra c ts i n th e F o u rth Q u a r tile : Com ponents, 19^0 . . . . . . . . 120 6 .1 ^ . The S tru c tu r e o f R e la tiv e D w ellin g U n it C o s t. 1950, T ra c ts i n th e F i r s t Q u a r tile : Com ponents, 1950 • ........................ 122 6 .1 5 * The S tru c tu r e o f R e la tiv e D w ellin g U n it C o s t. 1950, T r a c ts i n th e Second Q u a r tile : Com ponents, 1950...................................... 12^ 6 .1 6 . The S tru c tu r e o f R e la tiv e D w ellin g U n it C o s t. 1950, T r a c ts i n th e T h ird Q u a r tile : Com ponents, 1950 ............................. 126 xii Table Page 6 ,1 7 * The S tru c tu r e o f R e la tiv e D w ellin g U n it C o s t, 1950, T r a c ts i n th e F o u rth Q u a r tile : C om ponents, 1 9 5 0 ....................................... 128 6 .1 8 . The S tru c tu r e o f R e la tiv e D w elling U n it C o s t, I9 6 0 , T r a c ts i n th e F i r s t Q u a r tile : C om ponents, 1950 • • . . . . . . 131 6 .1 9 « The S tr u c tu r e o f R e la tiv e D w elling U n it C o s t, I9 6 0 , T r a c ts i n th e Second Q u a r tile : C om ponents, 1950 • • •• .. .. 133 6 .2 0 . The S tr u c tu r e o f R e la tiv e D w ellin g U n it C o s t, I9 6 0 , T r a c ts i n th e T h ird Q u a r tile : C om ponents, 1950 ................................... 135 6 .2 1 . The S tru c tu r e o f R e la tiv e D w ellin g U n it C o s t, I9 6 0 , T r a c ts i n th e F o u rth Q u a r tile : C om ponents, 1950 ................................... 137 6 .2 2 . The S tr u c tu r e o f R e la tiv e D w elling U n it C o s t, I9 6 0 , T r a c ts i n th e F i r s t Q u a r tile : C om ponents, i 9 6 0 ....................................... I*t0 6 .2 3 . The S tr u c tu r e o f R e la tiv e D w elling U n it C o s t, I9 6 0 , T r a c ts i n th e Second Q u a r tile : C om ponents, i 9 6 0 ................................. 1^2 6.2^-. The S tr u c tu r e o f R e la tiv e D w ellin g U n it C o s t, I9 6 0 , T r a c ts i n th e T h ird Q u a r tile : C om ponents, i 960 . . . . . . . . 1^*+ 6 .2 5 * The S tr u c tu r e o f R e la tiv e D w ellin g U n it C o s t, I9 6 0 , T r a c ts i n th e F o u rth Q u a r t i le : C om ponents, i 960 . . . . . . . . 1^6 6 .2 6 . The S tr u c tu r e o f R e s id e n tia l S t a b i l i t y , 1950: C om ponents, 19^0 . . . . . . . . . . 1^9 6 .2 7 . The S tr u c tu r e o f R e s id e n tia l S t a b i l i t y , I9 6 0 : C om ponents, 1950.... ........................ 151 A .I . I n t e r c o r r e l a t i o n s among Com ponents, A ll T r a c ts . ............................ 173 A .2 . I n t e r c o r r e l a t i o n s among Com ponents, F i r s t Q u a r tile o f Com posite R ank.............................175 xiii T ab le A .3 . A .lf. A .5 . A .6 . A .7 . A .8 . A .9 . A .1 0 . A .11 • A .1 2 . A .1 3 . Page ita t e r o o r r e l a t l o n s among Com ponents, Second Q u a r tile o f Com posite Bank • • • • • 177 I n t e r c o r r e l a t i o n s among Com ponents, T h ird Q u a r tile o f Composite R a n k , ......................... 179 I n t e r c o r r e l a t i o n s among Com ponents, F o u rth Q u a r tile o f Com posite Rank • • • • • 181 I n t e r c o r r e l a t i o n s among Com ponents, F i r s t Q u a r tile o f Owner O ccupied Rank . • • 183 I n t e r c o r r e l a t i o n s . among Com ponents, Second Q u a r tile o f Owner O ccupied R ank. . • 185 I n t e r c o r r e l a t i o n s among Com ponents, T h ird Q u a r tile o f Owner O ccupied Rank . . . 187 I n t e r c o r r e l a t i o n s among Com ponents, F o u rth Q u a r tile o f Owner O ccupied R ank. • • 189 I n t e r c o r r e l a t i o n s among Com ponents, F i r s t Q u a r tile o f R e n te r O ccupied Rank. • • 191 I n t e r c o r r e l a t i o n s among Com ponents, Second Q u a r tile o f R e n te r O ccupied Rank . • 193 I n t e r o o r r e l a t i o n s among Com ponents, T h ird Q u a r tile o f R e n te r O ccupied R ank. • . 195 I n t e r c o r r e l a t i o n s among Com ponents, F o u rth Q u a r tile o f R e n ter O ccupied Rank • • 197 LIST OS* FIGURES Figure Page 5 .1 . The S p a tia l D is tr ib u tio n o f Q u a r tile s o f Com posite C ost) 1 9 ^ 0 .......................................... 68 5 .2 . The S p a tia l D is tr ib u tio n o f Q u a r tile s o f Com posite C o st) 1950 .......................................... 69 5.3* Ik e S p a tia l D is tr ib u tio n o f Q u a r tile s o f Com posite C ost) I960 • 70 $ A . The S p a tia l D is tr ib u tio n o f Q u a r tile s o f Owner C o st) 19*+0 • ........................................... 71 5.5* The S p a tia l D is tr ib u tio n o f Q u a r tile s o f Owner C o st) 1950 ....................... 72 5*6. The S p a tia l D is tr ib u tio n o f Q u a r tile s o f Owner C o st) i 960 . . • ................................. 73 5 .7 . The S p a tia l D is tr ib u tio n o f Q u a r tile s o f R e n te r C o st) 19^0. . . ................................. A 5 .8 . The S p a tia l D is tr ib u tio n o f Q u a r tile s o f R e n te r C o s t, 1950. ....................... • • • • 75 5.9* The S p a tia l D is tr ib u tio n o f Q u a r ti l e s o f R e n te r C o s t, i 9 6 0 . ................................................ 76 XV CHAPTER I THE DEVELOPING RESIDENTIAL STRUCTURE OP THE W ESTERN AMERICAN METROPOLIS A t y p ic a l m e tro p o lita n '1 ’ a r e a o f th e W estern U n ited 2 S t a t e s may be d e s c rib e d i n th e seco n d h a l f o f th e tw en t i e t h c e n tu ry a s an u rb a n a r e a whose p e r im e te r e x te n d s f o r m ile s from i t s decayed c o r e . B etw een c o re and p e rim e te r l i e s a c a r p e t o f d w e llin g u n i t s a t a l l s ta g e s o f o b s o le s c e n c e . E ach p a r t b e a rs an age p r o f i l e c o n s is te n t w ith th e ■^M etropolitan i s a n a r e a in c lu d in g a g e n e ra l c i ty and a l l a d ja c e n t and c o n tig u o u s m in o r c i v i l d iv is io n s hav in g a p o p u la tio n o f 150 o r more p e rs o n s p e r sq u a re m ile , A m e tro p o lita n a re a i s th u s n o t a p o l i t i c a l u n i t b u t r a t h e r a n a r e a in c lu d in g a l l o f th e t h i c k l y s e t t l e d t e r r i t o r y in and aro u n d a c i t y o r a g ro u p o f c i t i e s . See: U. S . B ureau o f th e C en su s. S ix te e n th C ensus o f th e U n ite d S t a t e s . 19*+Q H ousing C h a r a c te r is tic s bv Type o f S t r u c t u r e .CW ashington, D. C .j U . S . Government P r i n t i n g O f f i c e p . 2 . T h is d e f i n i t i o n i s u s e d i n f a v o r o f t h a t o f i 960 to a s s u re com p a r a b i l i t y o f te rm in o lo g y . 2West c o n s is ts o f th e U . S . B ureau o f Census d e fin e d W estern R eg io n , w hich in c lu d e s A riz o n a . C a lif o r n i a , C o lo ra d o , Id ah o , M ontana, N evada, New M exico, O regon, U tah , W ashington, Wyoming. See: U, S . B ureau o f th e C ensus. S ix te e n th Census o f th e U n ite d S t a t e s . 19*4-0 H ousing V o l. I X G en eral C h a r a c te r i s tic s P a r t I . U. S . Summary (W ashington. D. C .: U. S. Government P r i n t i n g O ffic e ^E dgar M. Hoover and Raymond V ernon, Anatomy o f a M e tro p o lis (C am bridge, M ass.: H arv ard U n iv e rs ity P re s s , 1 9 )> Chapter 8. 1 2 s ta g e o f te c h n o lo g ic a l advancem ent and th e a f f lu e n c e o f th e f a m il ie s f o r w hich th e u n i t s were c o n s tr u c te d , m o d ifie d by th e socioeconom ic p r o f i l e o f th e r e s i d e n t s t h e r e a f t e r . The w e ste rn m e tro p o lis was n o t p la n n e d , b u t grew i n segm ents w ith m ile a f t e r m ile o f r e s id e n c e s , s e rv e d by a sh o p p in g c e n te r h e re and an i n d u s t r i a l a re a t h e r e . The m e tro p o lis began a s a c i t y o f m o d erate s i z e , w ith a homogeneous popu l a t i o n and econom ic b a s e , u n p re p a re d f o r th e r a p id p o p u la ti o n gro w th i t was to e x p e rie n c e . Some C o n co m itan ts to U nplanned U rban E xpansion The c i t y g rew , and to grow i t expanded h o r i z o n t a l ly . S e p a ra te c i t i e s once m ile s a p a r t grew i n t o e c o lo g ic a lly in te rd e p e n d e n t c o te rm in o u s a r e a s . As th e c i t y grew a t i t s p e r im e te r , s in g le fa m ily r e s id e n c e s w ere c o n s tru c te d to house i t s in c r e a s in g p o p u la tio n . E ach s u c c e s s iv e decade was m arked by th e c o n s tr u c tio n o f te n s o f th o u sa n d s o f new d w e llin g u n i t s and g e o g ra p h ic e x p a n sio n m easured i n sq u a re if m ile s . As new d w e llin g u n i t s r e p r e s e n te d th e c u r r e n t s t a t e o f h o u sin g te c h n o lo g y and were b u i l t to f i t th e c u r r e n t econom ic s t a t u s o f th e m id d le - c la s s , th e u n i t s w ere ac co rd ed a co n so n an t s o c i a l v a lu e . O rig in a l r e s i d e n t s o f ^Leo P . S ch n o re and Gene B. P e te r s o n , "Urban and M e tro p o lita n D evelopm ent i n th e U n ite d S ta te s and C anada," The A n n als o f th e A m erican Academy o f P o l i t i c a l and S o o ia l S c ie n c e s , CCCXVI ( 1 9 5 8 ;, 6 0 - 6 8 .; 3 new r e s i d e n t i a l a re a s c o n s is te d o f th e more a f f l u e n t , b o th from w ith in th e m e tro p o lis and among th o s e who m ig ra te d to i t . Those a r e a s v a c a te d by th e more a f f l u e n t b ec au se o f p h y s ic a l and s o c ia l d e te rm in a n ts became th e r e s id e n c e o f th e l e s s a f f l u e n t members o f s o c i e t y , o f th o s e who fo u n d p a r t i c u l a r , s o c i a l l y a c c e p ta b le d w e llin g s , and o f th o s e who f o r o th e r re a s o n s d e s ire d a p la c e o f r e s id e n c e c lo s e to th e u rb a n c o r e . As th e s o c ia l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f th e p o p u la tio n r e s id in g i n th e u rb a n c o re ch an g ed , outw ard m o b ility in c re a s e d f o r th o s e who v a lu e d th e fo rm e r n e ig h b orhood p r o f i l e . The r e s u l t h a s been t h a t th e c o re h a s become a p la c e o f re s id e n c e f o r t h a t p o p u la tio n w hich e i t h e r c a n n o t a f f o r d more s o c ia lly and te c h n o lo g ic a lly d e s i r a b l e h o u sin g i n th e suburban f r in g e o r h a s lim ite d 5 a c c e s s t o , o r d e s ir e f o r , h o u sin g t h e r e . The s u b s ta n tiv e f a c t o r o f in te r v e n in g o p p o r tu n ity in f lu e n c e s in tr a - m e tr o p o lita n m ig ra tio n a s w e ll a s i n t e r m e tr o p o lita n m ig r a tio n , a s m ost r e c e n tly d e m o n stra te d by S to u f f e r and th e n G alle and T aeuber. The o p p o rtu n ity m odel a s a p p lie d to th e n eig h b o rh o o d n e c e s s a r i l y in c lu d e s b o th s t r u c t u r a l and f u n c tio n a l p u ll and p u sh f a c t o r s ^ w hich a re ^Leo F . S ch n o re, "The Socio-E conom ic S ta tu s o f C i t i e s and S u b u rb s." A m erican S o c io lo g ic a l R eview . V o l. 28, No. 1 ( F e b ru a ry , 1 9 6 3 ), 8 2 . : ^ E v e r e tt S . l e e , "A Theory o f M ig r a tio n ," Demogra p h y , No. 3 ' (1 9 6 6 ), **7-57. _ _ : . ^ r e c i p r o c a l , a s w e ll as f a c t o r s w hich r e s id e o n ly i n th e in s ta n c e o f th e a t t r a c t i v e n e ig h b o rh o o d , o r t h a t w here th e 7 in d iv i d u a l r e s i d e s . G eographic ex p an sio n o f th e m e tr o p o lita n a r e a h a s o c c u rre d in ev ery w e ste rn m e tr o p o lis , w h ile p o p u la tio n den s i t y h a s rem ained below t h a t fo u n d i n m e tro p o lita n a r e a s of th e e a s te r n U n ite d S t a t e s . The r e s u l t h a s b een t h a t e a c h ■ • f t ' ' ■ w e s te rn m e tro p o lis now e x h i b i t s g ro w th r in g s ? c o n s is tin g of h o u sin g c o n s tru c te d in a p a r t i c u l a r p e r io d and t a i l o r e d to a s p e c if i c economic s t r a t a o f p r o s p e c tiv e b u y e rs . The p a t te r n of g ro w th o f th e w e s te rn m e tr o p o lis , e s p e c i a l l y Los A ngeles, h a s been s u b u rb a n , a lth o u g h a c a se m ig h t be made f o r some su b u rb s a c t u a l l y c o n s t i t u t i n g s a t e l - 9 l i t e c i t i e s . The e m p iric a l a tta c h m e n t o f names to th e ?S ee: Samuel A . S t o u f f e r , S o c ia l R esearch to T e st Id e a s (New Yorks The- F re e P re s s o f G len co e, Omer R . G alle and K arl E ; T aeu b er, " M e tro p o lita n M ig ra tio n and I n te r v e n in g O p p o rtu n itie s ," A m erican S o c io lo g ic a l R eview , V o l. 3 1 , No. 1 (F e b ru a ry , 1 9 0 6 ), *>-13. ®This i s n o t to say t h a t th e w e s te rn m e tro p o lis con form s to th e B urgess h y p o th e s is , b u t t h a t th e m e tro p o lis grow s i n s ta g e s a t i t s p e r im e te r . S ee: E rn e s t W. B u rg e ss, "The Growth o f th e C ity ," in R o b e rt E . P a rk , E rn e s t W . B u rg e s s , and R oderick D. M cKenzie. The C ity (C hicago: U n iv e r s ity o f Chicago P r e s s , 1 9 2 5 ), C h a p te r 2 . A lso se e M aurice R. D av ie, "The P a t t e r n o f U rban G row th," i n P a u l K. H a tt and A lb e rt J . R e is s , J r . , e d s . , R ead er i n U rban S o c io l ogy (G le n c o e , 1 1 1 .: F re e P r e s s , 1 9 5 1 ), 259* ^Bogue and H a r ris in t h e i r s tu d y o f s u b u rb a n iz a tio n fo u n d c e n t r a l - c i t y a n n e x a tio n and d is c o n n e c tio n a c r i t i c a l f a c t o r i n u rb a n -su b u rb a n d e f i n i t i o n . A reas once p a r t o f the c i t y b ro k e from th e c i t y and form ed s a t e l l i t e c i t i e s . See: _ , 5 v a r io u s p e r ip h e r a l t r a c t s o r com m unities i s r e le v a n t o n ly i n s o f a r a s th e y a re f r e e s ta n d in g com m unities o r a re a tta o h e d to a n o th e r la r g e c i t y a s s u b u rb s , b u t n o t th e c e n t r a l c i t y . In te rm s o f th e h o u sin g m a rk e t, com m unities a c t a s su b u rb s d e s p ite th e s a t e l l i t e - s u b u r b a n a r g u m e n t.^ R e s id e n tia l S e g re g a tio n : A C o ro lla ry to th e S o c ia l D ow ngrading o f th e tfrban Core W ith ea ch s ta g e o f e x p a n sio n a t th e p e rim e te r o f th e m e tr o p o lis , d w e llin g s i n th e u rb a n c o re have become downgraded i n te rm s o f r e l a t i v e h o u sin g c o s t because o f t h e i r te c h n o lo g ic a l and s o c i a l u n d e s i r a b i l i t y and th e cumu l a t i v e e f f e c t o f th e a g in g o f d w e llin g u n i t s on th e e c o lo g y o f th e n e ig h b o rh o o d s. T e c h n o lo g ic a l u n d e s i r a b i l i t y o c c u rs when th e d w e llin g u n i t s have become o b s o le te sim ply b e c au se o f f u r t h e r te c h n o lo g ic a l advancem ent s in c e t h e i r c o n s tru c t i o n . S o c ia l u n d e s i r a b i l i t y in c lu d e s f a c t o r s having t o do w ith th e u n d e s i r a b i l i t y o f th e d w e llin g i n i t s p r e s e n t s e t t i n g , r a t h e r th a n w ith th e u n i t i t s e l f . T h is p ro c e s s o f th e dow ngrading o f th e r e l a t i v e d e s i r a b i l i t y o f d w e llin g u n i t s r e s u l t s i n th e r e d e f i n i t i o n o f some d w e llin g s i n t o th e econom ic ran g e o f t h a t p o p u la tio n u n a b le to a f f o r d o r D onald J . Bogue and D o ro th y L. H a r r is , C om parative P o p u la t i o n and U rban R e searc h V ia M u ltip le R e g re ssio n and C o v a ri an ce A n a ly s is (O x fo rd , O h io : S c rip p s F o u n d a tio n , Miami U n iv e r s ity , 195*0* p* 52. ^ l e o F . S e h n o re , The Urban Scene (New York: The F ree P r e s s , 1965)> p p . 138-1M-9. ; . _ 6 t o buy n ew er and more a t t r a o t i v e u n i t s on th e p e r im e te r o f th e m e tr o p o lis . A t some tim e , depending p r im a rily on th e p ro x im ity o f th e a r e a to a p o p u la tio n c o n s id e re d u n a c c e p t a b le a s n e ig h b o rs by th e o r i g i n a l r e s i d e n t s , a sm a ll num ber o f in d iv id u a l members o f a p o p u la tio n group n o t so u g h t a s n e ig h b o rs by n eig h b o rh o o d r e s id e n ts w i l l r e n t o r buy h o u s in g among th e u n i t s . Once a sm all number o f t h i s u n a c c e p t a b le p o p u la tio n h a s o b ta in e d h o u sin g and has r e s id e d t h e r e f o r a p e r io d o f tim e , th o s e o r i g i n a l r e s id e n ts who rem a in 11 may th e n c h o o s e , p la n and move to d i f f e r e n t l o c a l e s . The l a g b etw een th e tim e when th e f i r s t member o f t h i s p o p u la t i o n w hich h a s been d e fin e d a s u n a c c e p ta b le a s n e ig h b o rs move i n t o th e t r a c t and th e tim e when r e l a t i v e l y few o f th e o r i g i n a l p o p u la tio n rem ain may com prise s e v e r a l d e c a d e s . In r e c e n t s t u d i e s o f Negro r e s i d e n t i a l in v a s io n , i t h a s been n o te d t h a t th e im p act o f th e r e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f th e 12 Negro p o p u la tio n on th e m e tro p o lis i s s u b s t a n t i a l . L i t e r a tu r e on r e s i d e n t i a l a r e a change in d ic a t e s t h a t once in v a d e d , a n eig h b o rh o o d w i l l become alm o st e x c lu s iv e ly N egro. At th e same tim e th e e n tr y o f N egroes in to p r e v i o u s ly a l l C a u ca sian t r a c t s , and th e r e s u l t a n t a tta in m e n t o f ^ M a u ric e D. Van A rs d o l, J r . , G eorges Sabagh an d E d g ar W. B u t le r , " R e tro s p e c tiv e and S ubsequent M e tro p o lita n R e s id e n tia l M o b ility ," Demography« V o l. 5» No. 1 (1 9 6 8 ), 265. ■ ^Jean G ottm ann, M eg alo p o lis (New York: The Twen t i e t h C en tu ry F und, 1 9 6 1 ), m -1£. : _ _ 7 a Negro p o p u la tio n a s y m p to te , v a r ie s w ith t h e p ro x im ity o f th e s p e c i f i c n eig h b o rh o o d w ith o th e r n e ig h b o rh o o d s w ith in w hich N eg ro es have r e s id e d f o r d e o a d e s . ^ W ith th e s tr e n g th e n in g o f l e g a l i n s t i t u t i o n s a g a in s t r e s i d e n t i a l r a c i a l d is c rim in a tio n , i t h a s become e a s i e r f o r th e Negro to p u rch ase h o u sin g i n o b s o le s c e n t l 1 * a r e a s . As th e a r e a o f o b so le sc e n t h o u sin g I n th e m e tro p o l i s i s g r e a t , th e Negro h a s r e s i d e n t i a l a c c e s s t o a geo g r a p h ic a r e a o f some s i z e . H is a c c e s s i s s t i l l l i m i t e d by th e r e a l c o s t o r v a lu e o f r e s id e n c e s , a s he h a s l i m i t e d in co m e, an d b ecau se o f e x t r a - l e g a l s e l l in g and r e n t i n g p r a c t i c e s . As th e m e tro p o lis h as expanded g e o g r a p h ic a lly to accom m odate an in c r e a s in g p o p u la tio n , h o u sin g i n th e u rb a n c o re i s th e o ld e s t and m ost o f te n th e l e a s t d e s ir a b le to th e m a jo r ity p o p u la tio n . For t h i s re a s o n th e C a u ca sian le a v e s t h i s o l d e r , o b s o le s c e n t h o u sin g to t h e N eg ro , and th e p r o c e s s o f r a c i a l r e s i d e n t i a l r e d i s t r i b u t i o n b e g in s . P & r I 9 6 0 , th e e x t e n t to w hich r a c i a l r e s i d e n t i a l r e d i s t r i b u t i o n had ta k e n p la c e was g r e a t . F o r e x a m p le , i n Los A n g e le s C ounty, N egroes re s id e d i n t h i r t y - f i v e p e r c e n t 15 o f i t s co m p o site g r i d a r e a s in i 9 6 0 , a f o u r f o l d in c r e a s e ^ S e e s Jo h n Mark M cQuiston, Negro R e s i d e n t i a l I n v a s io n i n Los A n g eles County (Los A n g e le s: M cQ uiston A s s o c ia te s , I 969J 1 PP* •^ L o re n M i l le r , "The P r o te s t a g a in s t H ousing S e g re g a t i o n ." The A nnals o f th e American Academv o f P o l i t i c a l tn d S o c ia l S c ie n c e . < m n r J Jan u ary . " B O T 7 W - 7 9 1 ------ ” ^ B e tw e e n 19^0 and I 960, th e number o f c e n s u s t r a c t s - i n Los A ngeles County h as more th an d o u b le d . 1 . — 1 ' - ■ - 1 ' " " * .... . _ 8 o v e r 1 9 ^ 0 . W hile th e re w as a f o u r f o ld in c r e a s e i n th e num b e r o f g r i d a r e a s where N egroes r e s id e d betw een 19*+0 and i 9 6 0 , th e r e was a d e c re a se in th e p r o p o r tio n Negro among th o s e a r e a s . In 19^0, th e av erag e p r o p o r tio n Negro i n a r e a s w here N egroes r e s id e d was .5 6 ; by i 9 6 0 , t h a t p ro p o r t i o n was red u ced to .**1. In o rd e r f o r th e Negro p o p u la tio n to c o m p le te ly f i l l i n a r e a s o f Negro r e s id e n c e i n i 9 6 0 , th e Negro p o p u la tio n o f Los A n g eles County w ould have to more th a n d o u b le w h ile , a t th e same tim e , no N egroes e n te r e d a r e a s o f e x c lu s iv e C au casian r e s id e n c e . The Im pact o f S o c ia l D is c rim in a tio n on th e F u tu re o f th e U rban Core a s a P la c e o f R esid en ce As h o u sin g o b so le sc e n c e c o n tin u e s , th e a r e a o f p o t e n t i a l Negro re s id e n c e g ro w s. W hile th e Negro i s a f f e c t e d to a g r e a t e r e x t e n t th a n th e C au casian by h o u sin g c o s t s , and w h ile r e l a t i v e h o u sin g c o s t d e c re a s e s b e fo re Negro e n t i y i n t o an a r e a , assum ing r a c i a l d is c r im in a tio n a t C hanging b o u n d a rie s make lo n g itu d in a l a n a ly s is b ased on in d iv i d u a l t r a c t d a ta im p o s s ib le . In o r d e r to f a c i l i t a t e c o m p arativ e a n a l y s i s , a com posite g r i d o f t r a c t com bina t i o n s f o r 19^ 0 , 1950 and 19o0 h as been d ev elo p ed by th e U n iv e r s ity o f S o u th ern C a lif o r n ia P o p u la tio n R esearch L ab o rato ry -. These g r id c o m b in a tio n s w ere o r i g in a l l y d e lim ite d by B ev erly D uncan. G ross a c re a g e d a ta were com b in e d w ith d w e llin g u n it c o u n ts l i s t e d i n th e 19^0 and 1950 Census T ra c t B u l l e t i n s , and e s tim a te s o f th e 1920 and 1930 h o u sin g u n i t in v e n to r ie s were o b ta in e d from th e 19^0 B look S t a t i s t i c s B u l l e t i n s . The co m p o site g r i d was d esig n ed so t h a t g r id b o u n d a rie s n e v e r d iv id e c e n su s t r a c t s r e g a r d le s s o f th e ce n su s y e a r , 19^ 0 , 1950, o r i 9 6 0 . . ^ 9 16 th e s o c i a l l e v e l , i t i s re a s o n a b le to s u s p e c t t h a t h o u s in g a c t u a l l y d e c re a s e s i n i t s r e l a t i v e v alu e to th e C au casian once an a r e a h a s e x p e rie n c e d r e s i d e n t i a l r a c i a l ch an g e. T h e re fo re , th e a b i l i t y o f an a r e a w hich h a s e x p e ri enced r a c i a l change to r e t a i n i t s r e l a t i v e v a lu e i s a fu n c t i o n o f i t s a b i l i t y t o rem a in a t t r a c t i v e to th e Negro a s a p la c e o f r e s id e n c e . As Negro r e s i d e n t i a l r e d i s t r i b u t i o n te n d s to ta k e p la c e i n th e o ld e r , l e s s d e s ir a b le a r e a s , th e re i s a g r e a t q u e s tio n w h eth er th e s e a re a s w i l l r e t a i n t h e i r a t t r a c t i o n to th e Negro p o p u la tio n when new er b u t 17 s t i l l o b s o le s c e n t a r e a s become a v a i l a b l e . ( The im p act o f th e s e f a c t o r s on th e eco lo g y o f th e m e tro p o lis h a s been s u b s t a n t i a l . T here e x i s t s a la r g e g e o g ra p h ic a r e a o f th e m e tro p o lis w h ich , a t one tim e , became u n d e s ir a b le f o r a few C a u c a sia n s , th e n e x p e rie n c e d a change i n i t s r a c i a l c o m p o sitio n a n d , f o r t h a t r e a s o n , i s 18 now u n d e s ir a b le to a l l C a u c a sia n s . The a r e a i s l a r g e , 1 ^John Mark M cQ uiston, "C hanging R e la tiv e H ousing V alue i n Negro and C a u ca sian N eighborhoods"; a p a p e r p r e s e n te d a t th e 1968 m e e tin g o f th e P a c if ic S o c io lo g ic a l A s s o c ia tio n , San F r a n c is c o , C a lif o r n i a . •^M o rto n G ro d z k in s, " M e tro p o lita n S e g re g a tio n ," S c i e n t i f i c A m erican. No. (O c to b e r, 1 9 5 7 ), 3 3 • See a l s o : Raymond Mack and D ennis C. M cE lrath , "Urban S o c ia l D i f f e r e n t i a t i o n and th e A llo c a tio n o f R e so u rc e s ," The A nnals o f P o l i t i c a l and S o c ia l S c ie n c e s . CCCLII (M aroh, "196k) , £l>-32• ^ s c o t t G re e r w ould ty p if y t h i s change a s a change i n th e Sym bolic E n v iro n m en t. S ee: S c o tt G re e r, The L ogic o f S o c ia l In q u iry (C h ic ag o : A ldine P u b lis h in g C o ., I p . 56. “ ' 10 and th e r e a r e to o few N egroes to occupy a l l o f i t s a v a i l a b le h o u s in g . Those N egroes who d e s ir e and a r e a b le t o a f f o r d to le a v e th e a r e a do s o , le a v in g th e o l d e r , more o b s o le s c e n t u n i t s to d e t e r i o r a t e b ecau se o f th e i n s u f f i c i e n t num ber o f p o t e n t i a l Negro r e s i d e n t s . T h is la c k o i p o p u la tio n p o t e n t i a l r e s u l t s in h ig h vacan cy r a t e s w h ich b r in g a b o u t an a c c e le r a ti o n in th e d e t e r i o r a t i o n o f th e c o re o f th e m e tr o p o lis . T h is ra p id d e t e r i o r a t i o n th e n m akes th e a r e a u n d e s ira b le to i t s Negro o c c u p a n ts , a s i t had f o r th e C au casian d ecad es e a r l i e r . Once th e a r e a i s u n d e s ira b le a s a p la c e o f r e s i dence to b o th th e m a jo rity and th e m in o rity p o p u la tio n , and once d e t e r i o r a t i o n h a s ta k e n p la c e , s o c ia l d e c is io n s w ith r e f e r e n c e to th e f u tu r e u s e o f th e a re a a s r e s i d e n t i a l m ust be m ade. L arge and eco n o m ically d i v e r s i f i e d co m m u n ities w ith governm ent s t r u c t u r e s fa v o rin g c i t i z e n p a r t i c i p a t i o n have more d e c e n tr a liz e d d e c is io n making p r o c e s s e s . T h is in t u r n le a d s to a h ig h e r l e v e l of community b u d g e t e x p e n d i t u r e s and an in c re a s e d u rb a n renew al p r o g r a m .^ U n fo rtu n a t e l y , u r b a n ren ew al program s to o o f te n come a s an a tte m p t a t a s o l u t i o n to v i o l e n t d e m o n stra tio n s o f s o c i a l n e e d s . The decay o f th e u rb a n co re i s a problem r e le v a n t an d co n t r i b u t i n g to th o se d e m o n stra tin g w ith r e f e r e n c e to s o c i a l 19g»erry N. C la rk , "Community S t r u c t u r e . D e c is io n - M aking, B udget E x p e n d itu re s and Urban Renewal i n 51 American C o m m u n itie s A m e ric a n S o c io lo g ic a l R eview , V o l. 3 3 , No. b (August, i9iQ )T 57E = m :' ;-- - . . ± 1 20 n e e d s . The r e s u l t i s o f te n u rb a n re n e w a l w ith o u t r e g a r d , t o th e s o c i a l s tr u c tu r e o f th e com m unity, w h ile th e know l edge o f u rb a n r e s i d e n t i a l s u b s tr u c tu r e s w ould demand a d i f f e r e n t k in d o f re n e w a l, t a i l o r e d to th e n ee d s o f th e m e tro p o lis a s a w hole, y e t c o n s is te n t w ith , th e n e e d s o f th e c o re p o p u la tio n . The c e n t r a l c i t y h a s become a s o c io f u g a l a r e a . The te rm s o c io fu g a l space was o r i g i n a l l y c o in e d by Osmond to d e s c r ib e u n s u ita b le m en tal h o s p it a l a r c h i t e c t u r e • S o c io f u g a l space c o n s is ts o f t h a t where p e o p le t y p i c a l l y t r y to 21 a v o id one a n o th e r. R o b e rt Sommer u s e s a s an i l l u s t r a t i o n th e c a se o f a l i b r a r y , w here in d iv i d u a ls a rra n g e to a v o id one a n o th e r . T h is i l l u s t r a t i o n m ig h t be e x te n d e d to th e r e c o n s tr u c tio n o f th e c e n t r a l c i t y a s a com prom ise to socio- 22 r a c i a l i n t e g r a t i o n . S o c ia l S tr u c tu r a l F o u n d a tio n s o f riousing C o st" ~ H ousing c o s t in a p a r t i c u l a r a r e a i s o r i g i n a l l y e s t a b l i s h e d a t th e d o l l a r amount t h a t th e d e v e lo p e r p e r c e iv e s i s co n so n an t w ith th e s o c ia l v a lu e o f th e u n i t s in 2^i*or an e x p o s itio n o f th e h o u s in g c y c le sees E d g ar M. H oover and Raymond V ernon, Anatomy o f a M e tro p o lis (C am bridge: H arvard U n iv e rs ity P r e s s , 1959)» C h a p ter o . ^H um phrey Osmond, "F u n ctio n a s th e B a s is o f P s y c h ia tr ic Ward D esig n ," M ental H o s p ita ls ( A p r il, 1 9 5 7 ), 2 3 -2 9 . 22R o b ert Sommer, "S o o io fu g a l S p a c e ," A m erican J o u r n a l o f S o c io lo g y . V o l. 7 2 , No. 6 (May, 1 9 6 / ) , 6 5 ^-5 6 0 . 12 t h e i r s e t t i n g r e l a t i v e to o th e r d ev elo p m en ts and o th e r s e t t i n g s . The s e l l e r o r r e n t e r i n e s t a b l i s h i n g a p r ic e do es so th ro u g h th e o r g a n iz a tio n o f c o l l e c t i v e r e p r e s e n ta t i o n s t h a t he h a s ab o u t th e m a rk e t o r demand and a b o u t th e su p p ly o f p ro s p e c tiv e r e s i d e n t s . Bach tim e t h a t a p a r t i c u l a r u n i t i s v a c a te d th e o r g a n iz a tio n o f th e s e s o c ia l f a c t s m ust be u n d e rta k e n to e s t a b l i s h a m o d ifie d p r i c e . A t th e same tim e th e p ro s p e c tiv e r e s i d e n t m ust w eigh h i s own s e t o f p e r c e p tio n s o f s o c i a l f a c t s i n m aking th e d e c is io n to ta k e th e u n i t . ' I t i s th e s e s o c i a l f a c t s t h a t r e f l e c t s o c ia l r e a l - i t y , w h e th e r o r n o t r e a l i t y , conform s o b je c tiv e ly to th e p e r c e p tio n s o r im ages h e ld by e i t h e r s e l l e r o r b u y e r. i Where th e r e i s d i s p a r i t y betw een th e s o c i a l v a lu e a s se en by s e l l e r and' b u y er a m o d if ic a tio n o f th e p e rc e p tio n o f s o c ia l r e a l i t y m ust be made by one o r b o th b e fo re an exchange can ta k e p la c e . The th e o ry o f s o c ia l s t r u c t u r a l d eterm in ism a s th e b a s is o f h o u sin g c o s t p re s e n te d in C h a p ter T hree h a s a s i t s c o n c e p tu a l b a s e ]Xirkheimfs n o tio n t h a t i t i s th e i n s t i t u t i o n a l i z e d norm s tow ard w hich b e h a v io r i s o r ie n te d , th e s o c i a l f a c t , t h a t g o v ern s c o s t . I t i s th e i n te g r a te d p e r c e p tio n s o f n o rm a tiv e s t r u c t u r e s o f 23Emile D urkheim , The B u ies o f S o c io lo g ic a l M ethod: 110 L * E ducation M orale ( P a r i s : jfe lix A lc a n , l92b)> $-*+!?, p a ssim . . . 1 3 both, p a r t i e s i n th e exchange t h a t d e te rm in e s th e c o s t a t th e t r a n s a c t i o n . The th e o iy and su b se q u e n t d a ta a n a ly s is d e f in e s some o f th e com ponent p a r t s o f h o u sin g c o s t a s s o c ia l s t r u c t u r a l l y d e te rm in e d . The Scope o f T h is R esearch T h is stu d y exam ines some o f th e s o c ia l s t r u c t u r a l com ponents o f th e r e l a t i v e c o s t o f h o u sin g m e tro p o lita n r e s i d e n t i a l a r e a s i n o r d e r to c o n s tr u c t a th e o ry o f th e r e s i d e n t i a l d e s i r a b i l i t y o f n eig h b o rh o o d s i n s o c ia l s t r u c t u r a l te rm s . The th e o iy i s th e n a p p lie d to th e w e s te rn m e tro p o lis o f th e 1970*8 and e v a lu a te d a s a m o rp h o lo g ic a l advancem ent i n th e r e s i d e n t i a l s tr u c t u r e w ith th e r e s u l t a n t em ergence o f new m e g a lo p o lita n s p a t i a l s u b s tr u c tu r e s . Jam es B e sh ers i n d is c u s s in g t h e o r e t i c a l fram es o f r e f e r e n c e b ased on e c o lo g ic a l d a ta s t a t e s t h a t th e o iy c o n s tr u c tio n r e l a t i n g to s o c ia l s t r u c t u r e i s p o s s ib le s . . . i n th e c o n v e n tio n a l u sa g e o f s o c io lo g y . W e may w r ite down a th e o iy o f th e s o c ia l s tr u c tu r e o f an o v e r - a l l a g g re g a te o f a r e a s , say th e s o c ia l s t r u c t u r e o f a c i t y . Then we may deduce from t h i s th e o iy th e co n seq u en ces o f s o c ia l c h a r a c te r i s t i c s o f a r e a s . These, co n seq u en ces may th e n be t e s t e d w ith a r e a d a t a . B esh ers w ould d e fin e hom ogeneity o f a r e a s by t e s t i n g th e c o v a ria n c e among s u b u n its . The m ethod i s to m axim ize c o v a ria n c e among a r e a s and m inim ize i n t e r n a l c o v a ria n c e . 2^jam es M. B e s h e rs , " S t a t i s t i c a l In fe re n c e s from Sample A rea D a ta ," S o c ia l F o rc e s . V o l. 3 8 , No. b (May, I 9 6 0 ) , 3**2. ; Only th e f i r s t s te p i n B e s h e rs 1 sequence w i l l he exam ined h e r e , th e d e f i n i t i o n and t e s t o f a s t r u c t u r a l th e o ry o f s o c i a l d ete rm in ism i n h o u sin g c o s t . Some d e d u c tio n s w i l l he made i n th e form o f p o s s ib le outcom es upon l a t e r m athe m a tic a l s im u la tio n , h u t s im u la tio n s tu d i e s o f th e p o s s ib le co n se q u en c es o f r e s i d e n t i a l s t r u c t u r a l d eterm in ism a r e l e f t f o r f u tu r e r e s e a r c h . CHAPTER I I SOCIAL STRUCTURAL COM PONENTS OP NEIGHBORHOOD RESIDENTIAL VALUE CHANGE 1 2 The w e ste rn m e tro p o lis i s c h a r a c te r iz e d by r a p id p o p u la tio n g ro w th , low r e s i d e n t i a l d e n s i t y , th e p re s e n c e o f farm a$.d o th e r r u r a l la n d on th e p e r im e te r , and a r e s u l t a n t r e s i d e n t i a l e x p a n sio n a t th e p e r im e te r to accommodate popu l a t i o n g ro w th w h ile p r e s e rv in g an a p p ro x im a tio n o f th e fo rm e r p o p u la tio n d e n s ity * T h is g ro w th o c c u rs l a r g e l y b a se d on econom ic f a c t o r s a s p e rc e iv e d by t r a c t d e v e lo p e r s , r a t h e r th a n a s a r e s u l t o f a we 1 1 -o rg a n iz e d p la n o f th e d e s ir e d p r o f i l e o f th e m e tro p o lis o f th e fu tu re * The r e s u l t i s low d e n s ity ex p a n sio n and u rb a n s p ra w l, and i s r e a d i l y o b se rv a b le i n some s ta g e o f advancem ent i n e v e ry •^-Western i s d e fin e d a s t h a t a r e a w ith in th e U* S* B ureau o f th e Census* W estern R egion a s d e fin e d by: U* S . B ureau o f th e C en su s, S ix te e n th C ensus o f th e U n ite d S ta te s * 19^0 H ousing V o l. IlT~~General C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s P a r t I * U. S . Summary CW ashington. D. C. : U. S . Government P r i n t i n g O f f i c e ) . Tne a r e a in c lu d e s th e s t a t e s o f A riz o n a , C a l i f o r n i a , C o lo rad o , Id a h o , M ontana, N evada, New M exico, O regon, U ta h , W ashington and Wyoming. 2The 19^0 Census d e f i n i t i o n o f m e tro p o lita n i s u se d h e re * S ee: U* S* B ureau o f th e C en su s, S ix te e n th Census o f _ th a _ U n ite d S ta te s * 19*fQ H ousing Char a c t e r i s t i c s by Type o f S tr u c tu r e (W ashington, D. 0*: U . S . Government P r in t in g O f f i c e ; , p . 2* 15 16 w e ste rn m e tro p o lita n a re a * P o p u la tio n d e n s ity d e c lin e s a s a f u n c tio n o f d is ta n c e from th e c e n t e r o f th e m e tro p o lis and o f th e p e r s i s t i n g d e n s ity g r a d ie n ts w hioh g e n e ra lly b e g in s w ith th e h ig h e s t d e n s ity n e a r th e c o re w ith n e g a tiv e g r a d ie n ts a s one moves o u tw ard . H au se r n o te s t h a t th e m e tro p o lita n c u l t u r a l l a g e x h ib ite d i n th e U n ite d S t a t e s i s overw helm ing. The U n ite d S ta te s h a s u n dergone a s o c ia l m o rp h o lo g ic a l r e v o lu tio n w hich h a s been b ro u g h t ab o u t by th e in c r e a s in g co m p lex ity o f th e d e n s e ly p o p u la te d m etropo l i s e s . W e m ust u n d e rta k e to e x p la in ( d e s c r ib e ) th e n a tu r e and co n seq u en ces o f t h i s r e v o lu ti o n and th e n remedy o u r p r e s e n t c h a o tio s t a t u s . The P la c e i n th e C o u n try . An U rban S ta tu s C e n trifu g e U n til q u ite r e c e n t l y , h o u sin g developm ents were p la n n e d and c o n s tru c te d w ith o u t s e r v i c e , em ploym ent, i n s t i t u t i o n a l , and com m ercial p la n n in g ; th u s e a c h new h o u sin g developm ent was d ep e n d en t on th e c e n t r a l c i t y f o r s u p p o r t. The q u e s tio n o f th e d e s i r a b i l i t y o f t h i s p r a c t ic e w i l l n o t be a d d re s se d h e r e , b u t th e p r a c t i c e i s acknow ledged sim p ly to s e t th e s ta g e f o r a n a l y s i s o f su b se q u e n t i n t e r a c t i o n ay C. T readw ay, " S o c ia l Components o f M e tro p o li ta n P o p u la tio n D e n s i tie s ," Demography. V o l. 6 , No. 1 (F e b ru a ry , 1 9 6 9) , 5 5 -A . ^ P h i l i p M. H a u s e r, "The C h ao tio S o c ie ty : P ro d u c t o f th e S o c ia l M o rp h o lo g ic a l He v o l u t i o n ," A m erican S o c io lo g i c a l Review . Volr-3**\y} No• 1 (F e b ru a ry , 196$ ; , 1- 1 9 # 1 7 betw een th e su b u rb an p o p u la tio n and t h a t o f th e c e n t r a l c i t y . The change i n t h i s p r a c t ic e i s germ ane to th e w e s t e r n s e t t i n g . She a b sen ce o f th e n e c e s s a ry com ponents f o r an in d e p e n d e n t e x is te n c e among su b u rb s b ro u g h t ab o u t g r e a t i n t e r a c t i o n betw een th e su b u rb s and c e n t r a l c i t y . The g e o g ra p h ic a lly i s o l a t e d s t a t u s o f new r e s i d e n t i a l d e v e lo p m ents a c te d a s a c o n t r i b u t o r to th e s o c i a l s t a t u s o f th e a r e a . New r e s i d e n t s w ere a s s u re d t h a t th e a r e a . New r e s i d e n ts w ere a s s u re d t h a t th e a r e a was t r a f f i c - f r e e , h ad no u n d e s ir a b le i n d u s t r i a l o r com m ercial s i t e s n e a rb y and was f a r from th e humdrum atm o sp h ere o f th e c e n tr a l c i t y . Each new developm ent r e p r e s e n te d th e s t a t e o f th e h o u sin g con s t r u c t i o n and m a rk e tin g a r t f o r th e p a r t i c u l a r econom ic ran g e f o r w hich i t was b u i l t . R esid en ce i n th e a r e a o u t s id e th e c e n te r h a s "alw ay s been a p ro o f o f w e a lth .,"^ a symbol o f th e s t a t u s t h a t a f f o r d s th e tim e and money n e c e s s a ry to be tr a n s p o r te d o r n o t be tr a n s p o r te d i n to th e c i t y c e n te r . T h u s, th e u rb a n f r in g e h a s become d e s ir a b le i n p a r t a s a symbol o f s o c i a l s t a t u s . E ach new r e s i d e n t i a l a r e a a c te d a s a p o p u la tio n a t t r a c t o r , p u l l i n g fo rm e r r e s i d e n t s o f th e i n t e r i o r o f th e 7 m e tro p o lis to i t . The p o p u la tio n le a v in g th e c e n t r a l c i t y ^D onald T . B ogue, The S tr u c tu r e o f th e M e tro p o lita n Community (Ann A rb o r: U n iv e r s ity o f M ichigan t r e s s , I ^ 9 ) . 6Je a n Gottmann* M eg alo p o lis (New York: The Twen t i e t h C entury Bund, 1 9 o l ) , p , 2*7* 7B or a d is c u s s io n o f th e imp a c t o f suburban_________ . . - . - i 8 to r e l o c a t e i n t h i s new h o u sin g l e f t i t s fo rm e r, l e s s v a lu e d p la c e o f re s id e n c e to a l e s s e c o n o m ic a lly a d v a n ta g e d p o p u la tio n . The r e s u l t h a s been a s t a t u s c e n tr if u g e w hich h a s p u lle d th e more s o c i a l l y ad v an tag ed to th e h ig h s t a t u s s u b u rb s , w h ile th e l e s s ad v an tag ed have rem ained i n th e o c e n t r a l c ity * T h is s t a t u s c e n tr if u g e h a s i n s p i r e d th e P h ila d e lp h ia C ity P la n n in g Commission to p ro p o se a l i m i t a t i o n on l o t s iz e and p o p u la tio n d e n s ity so t h a t f a c e - t o - f a c e c o n t a c t would ta k e p la c e among r e s i d e n t s w h ile a t th e same tim e a llo w in g sp ace f o r open a re a s * The Commission would l i m i t l o t s iz e i n " n a tu re a re a s " to a minimum o f te n 9 a c r e s . Such a p o lic y w ould h e ig h te n th e econom ic e x c lu s io n o f le s s -a d v a n ta g e d f a m il ie s from th e " n a tu r a l a r e a " and a c t a s a d e t e r r e n t to lo c a tin g i n th e c i t y i t s e l f * T h is i s an ex trem e c a s e o f th e p e rh a p s u n w ittin g econom ic d is c r im in a tio n by a c i v i c com m ission, b u t i t s m essage i s c le a r * I f h o u sin g i n an a r e a su rro u n d e d by n a tu r e i n a r e s i d e n t i a l c o n s tr u c tio n on th e g ro w th p a t t e r n s o f th e m e tr o p o lis , s e e : B e v erly Duncan, G eorges S abagh, and M aurice D. Van A rs d o l, J r . , " P a tte r n s o f C ity G row th," A m erican J o u r n a l o f S o cio lo g y * V o l. LXVII. No. ^ ( J a n u a ry . l§E' 2 77W JTgr.--------------- ’ ** ° K a r l E . and Alma P . T a e u b e r, "W hite M ig ra tio n and Socio-E conom ic D if fe re n c e s betw een C i t i e s and S u b u rb s," A m erican S o c io lo g ic a l R eview . V o l. 3 8 . No. ^ (O c to b e r. i w ; m - i W : ------ -- “Edmund N. B acon, "A m eriean Homes and N eighborhoods, C ity C o u n try ," The A nnals o f th e A m erican Academy o f P o l i t i c a l and S o c ia l S c ie n c e . C cO L ffldT IIlT JuIv. 196811 117- I W , p a s t o r a l se n se i s d e s i r e d , i t s m ain ten an ce m ust toe a s s u re d th ro u g h z o n in g . Zoning th e n a s s u re s th e m ain ten an ce o f th e s t a t u s o f th e com m unity. However, a s th e m e tro p o lis ad v an ces on open la n d a t i t s p e r im e te r , i t s advance i s ch eck ed toy t e c h n ic a ll y unsurm ountatole n a t u r a l h a r r i e r s and by th e f r i c t i o n o f p h y s ic a l d is ta n c e from s u p p o rt a c t i v i t i e s . 10 R e s id e n tia l c o n s tr u c tio n beyond th e d is ta n c e a t w hich f r i c t i o n i s g r e a t r e q u ir e s th e dev elo p m en t o f s u p p o rt a c t i v i t i e s a lo n g w ith d w e llin g u n i t s . The developm ent o f s u p p o rt a c t i v i t i e s p ro v id e s th e s t r u c t u r e f o r th e su b se q u en t n u c le a tio n o r se g m e n ta tio n o f th e m e tr o p o lis . T e c h n o lo g ic a l Components o f H ousing C ost W estern r e s i d e n t i a l ex p a n sio n h a s c o n s is te d p rim a r i l y o f u n i t d d e sig n e d f o r low p o p u la tio n d e n s i t i e s . The com ponents o f th e p h y s ic a l s t r u c t u r a l ty p e o f h o u sin g i n a p a r t i c u l a r new developm ent i s d e te rm in e d toy b u ild in g c o s t , c l im a tic c o n d itio n s , lo c a l o rd in a n c e s and e x p e c te d m a rk e t. F o r th e m ost p a r t , w e ste rn r e s i d e n t i a l c o n s tr u c t i o n i s o f wood fram e w ith stu c c o o r wood e x t e r i o r , w ith th e e x t e r n a l and i n t e r n a l c h a r a c te r o f th e u n i t s r e f l e c t i n g 1 0 l t whould be n o te d t h a t th e r e a re tout a few o f th e in te rd e p e n d e n t com ponents r e l a t i n g to th e s p a t i a l d i s t r i b u t i o n o f m e tro p o lita n h o u s in g . As th e y a r e p a r t i c u l a r l y germ ane to t h i s r e s e a r c h , th e y a r e i d e n t i f i e d h e r e . F o r a more com plete d is c u s s io n o f e c o lo g ic a l com ponents, s e e : Jam es A. Q uinn, "The N atu re o f Human E co lo g y : Re e x a m in a tio n and R e d e f in itio n ," S o c ia l F o r c e s . XVTII (D ecem ber, 1939)> 1 6 1 -1 6 8 . 20 th e s t y l e and te c h n o lo g y o f th e d a y . B u ild e r s d u rin g th e p e r io d a f t e r th e tu n a o f th e c e n tu ry made e x tra v a g a n t u se o f woody in c lu d in g o rn a m e n tal tr im b o th in s id e and o u t. E l e c t r i c a l f i x t u r e s were b o th c e l l i n g and w a ll m ounted, and a t y p i c a l s in g le fa m ily u n i t c o n ta in e d one b a th . By th e 1930*8, th e u s e o f th e s tu c c o e x t e r i o r was alm o st u n iv e r s a l , w ith i n t e r i o r and e x t e r i o r o rn a m e n ta tio n red u ced to w a ll c a b in e ts y f l o o r and c e i l i n g m ouldingsy c u p o la s and p o r t ic o s . The W orld War I I e r a was m arked by v a s t te c h n o lo g i c a l advancem ent i n h o u sin g c o n s t r u c ti o n . The u s e o f p r e - f a b r i c a t i o n was e x p lo ite d b ecau se o f r a p id p o p u la tio n g ro w th . H ousing c o n s tr u c tio n was l i m i t e d t o c r i t i c a l n eed due to th e s h o rta g e o f m a te r ia ls and m anpow er. The c lo s e o f World War I I b ro u g h t ab o u t a boom i n r e s i d e n t i a l con s t r u c t i o n to m eet th e h o u sin g s h o r ta g e . B oth manpower and m a t e r i a l s were a v a ila b le to th e b u i l d e r , and b u ild e r s began t o ex p e rim e n t w ith new te c h n iq u e s and m a t e r i a l s o f con s t r u c t i o n d ev elo p ed d u rin g th e w a r. P o s t-w a r p r o s p e r ity and th e a v a i l a b i l i t y o f in e x p e n siv e l a n d , c o u p le d w ith th e l i b e r a l i z a t i o n o f r e s i d e n t i a l f in a n c in g by le n d in g i n s t i t u t i o n s , r e s u l t e d i n th e a c c e le r a tio n i n th e c o n s tr u c tio n o f s in g le - f a m ily d w e llin g u n i t s on th e u rb a n f r in g e o f th e ^ B e r n a r d J . E rie d en . The F u tu re o f Old N eighbor hoods (C am bridge: MIT P r e s s , 196*0, PP* 93“ *£5« 21 m e tr o p o l is • The D evelopm ent o f " S o p h is tic a te d " M ark etin g T ech n iq u es a s A p p lie d to H ousing C o n s tru c tio n Because o f th e v a s t p o p u la tio n o f p o t e n t i a l b u y e rs , th e u n i v e r s a l i t y o f c o n s tr u c tio n te c h n iq u e s and th e s im i l a r i t y o f s t r u c t u r e s , d e v e lo p e rs r e f in e d c o m p e titiv e m a rk e tin g te c h n iq u e s* S p e c ia l ite m s su c h a s sh o w ers, m ul- t i p l e - o a r g a r a g e s , and fe n c e s w ere o f f e r e d to a t t r a c t b u y e rs to t r a c t s . New c o n s tr u c tio n i n th e 1 9 5 0 's f e a tu r e d th e e x t r a bedroom , th e den and su ch a p p lia n c e s a s g arb ag e d is p o s a ls and b u i l t - i n oven and r a n g e . S p e o ia l l i g h t i n g f i x t u r e s w ere som etim es added a s a t t r a c t o r s . By I 9 6 0 , t r a c t s i n th e h ig h e r p r ic e c a te g o r ie s f e a tu r e d swimming p o o ls , m u lti p le b a t h s , and s p e c ia l en tz y w ay s. B u i l t - i n t e l e v i s i o n a n te n n a s and room -to-room in te rc o m m u n ic a tio n sy stem s w ere 12 o f te n f e a t u r e d . The r e s u l t o f p r o g re s s i n b o th h o u sin g te c h n o lo g y and r e s i d e n t i a l m a rk e tin g te c h n iq u e s h a s b een th e p rem a tu re o b s o le s c e n c e o f even r e l a t i v e l y new d w e llin g u n i t s . Because o f th e g r e a t e r a v a i l a b i l i t y and d e s i r a b i l i t y o f new u n i t s b o th due to te c h n o lo g ic a l and s t a t u s r e a s o n s , u n i t s c o n s tr u c te d s h o r tly a f t e r World War IX have a lre a d y become Je a n G ottm ann, M e g alo p o lis (New Yorks The Twen t i e t h C en tu ry Fund, 1 9 6 1 ), p . H-12. 22 o b s o le te to t h a t p o p u la tio n f o r whom th e y w ere c o n s tru c t e d . 13 The E f f e c t o f N eighborhood F am ily O harao- t e r i s t i o s on N eighborhood D e s i r a b i l i t y The a g g re g a te fa m ily ty p e o f th e p o p u la tio n o f a n eig h b o rh o o d a c ts a s a s t r u c t u r a l d im en sio n to th e r e l a t i v e v a lu e o f d w e llin g u n i t s w ith in th e n eig h b o rh o o d and w ith in a d jo in in g n e ig h b o rh o o d s. Not o n ly do n eig h b o rh o o d s become o b s o le s c e n t to p a r t i c u l a r p o p u la tio n g ro u p s b ecau se o f d w e llin g u n i t s th e m s e lv e s , th e y become o b s o le s c e n t b ecau se I** o f th e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f f a m il ie s who r e s id e t h e r e . F a m ilie s f r e q u e n tly se e k n eig h b o rh o o d s p o p u la te d by fa m i l i e s w ith s im ila r age p r o f i l e s and c o m p o s itio n s . N eighbor hoods w here few young c h i ld r e n r e s id e a r e n o t g r e a t a t t r a c t o r s to f a m il ie s w ith s m a ll c h ild r e n who d e s ir e p la y m a te s f o r t h e i r y o u n g s te rs , Py th e same to k e n , th e s e n io r c i t i zen d e s ir in g , n eig h b o rh o o d s o c i a l i n t e r a c t i o n w ith o th e r s o f s i m i l a r age would n o t be a t t r a c t e d to n eig h b o rh o o d s c h a ra c - 15 t e r i z e d by young f a m i l i e s . S e rv ic e and s o c i a l i n s t i t u t i o n a l a c t i v i t i e s grow to *3I b i d . llfP au l C. G lic k , "Fam ily S t a t i s t i c s , " i n P h i l i p M. H au ser and O tis Dudley Duncan ( e d s .^ , The S tudy o f P o p u la t i o n (C h icag o ; The U n iv e r s ity o f C hicago P r e s s , 19^9^» p p T 5 7 6 -6 0 3 . • ^ p e t e r H. R o s s i, Why F a m ilie s Move (G len co e , I l l i n o i s : The F re e P r e s s , T9+77I 23 s u i t th e re q u ire m e n ts o f th e com m unity. They th e n s e rv e to r e in f o r c e th e s t r u c t u r a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f th e community and se rv e a s a t t r a c t o r s to f a m i l i e s w ith re q u ire m e n ts con s i s t e n t w ith s e r v ic e s a v a ila b le * The new developm ent w ith i t s r e l a t i v e l y ex p e n siv e and la r g e s in g le - f a m ily d w e llin g u n i t s i s a g r e a t a t t r a c t o r to th e new fa m ily o r th e r e l a t i v e l y young fa m ily whose p r e s e n t h o u sin g a n d /o r n e ig h b o r hood does n o t f u l f i l l i t s s p a t i a l and s t a t u s r e q u ir e m e n ts .^ The young fa m ily i s below i t s p ea k e a rn in g pow er, h a s y e t to com plete th e p e r io d o f c h ild b e a r in g and i s th e l a r g e s t p u rc h a s e r o f new housing* W ith i t s d i s t i n c t i v e l y y o u th f u l c h a r a c t e r , th e new h o u sin g developm ent i n i t i a t e s th e d ev elo p m en t o f s e r v ic e s and i n s t i t u t i o n a l s u p p o rt to accommodate young p a r e n ts and t h e i r c h ild re n * As th e s e f a m i l i e s a g e , com m ercial and i n s t i t u t i o n a l i z e d s e r v ic e s change c o n s i s t e n t w ith th e age c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f th e p o p u la tio n serv ed * The c h o ic e o f p o t e n t i a l o c c u p an ts o f u n i t s w ith in th e s e n eig h b o rh o o d s i s a f f e c te d by th e fa m ily c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f t h e i r p r e s e n t o c c u p a n ts . At th e same tim e , t h i s movement g r e a t ly a f f e c t s a r e a s l e f t behind* The y o u n g e r f a m i l i e s , le a v in g th e o ld e r b e h in d , c o n tr ib u te to th e a g in g o f th e fa m ily s tr u c t u r e i n ■ ^C alvin 1* B e a le , " N a tu ra l D ecrease o f P o p u la tio n : The C u rre n t and P ro s p e c tiv e S ta tu s o f an Em ergent A m erican Phenom enon," Demography. V o l. 6 , No. 2 (May, 1 9 6 9 ), 91“ 100. 23 s u i t th e re q u ire m e n ts o f th e community* They th e n s e rv e to r e in f o r c e th e s t r u c t u r a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f th e com munity and s e rv e a s a t t r a c t o r s t o f a m il ie s w ith re q u ire m e n ts con s i s t e n t w ith s e r v ic e s a v a ila b le * The new developm ent w ith i t s r e l a t i v e l y ex p en siv e and la r g e s in g le - f a m ily d w e llin g u n i t s i s a g r e a t a t t r a c t o r to th e new fa m ily o r th e r e l a t i v e l y young fa m ily whose p r e s e n t h o u sin g a n d /o r n e ig h b o r hood do es n o t f u l f i l l i t s s p a t i a l and s t a t u s re q u ire m e n ts * ^ The young fa m ily i s below i t s p eak e a rn in g pow er, h a s y e t to com plete th e p e rio d o f c h ild b e a r in g and i s th e l a r g e s t p u rc h a s e r o f new h o using* W ith i t s d i s t i n c t i v e l y y o u th f u l c h a r a c t e r , th e new h o u sin g developm ent i n i t i a t e s th e dev elo p m en t o f s e r v ic e s and i n s t i t u t i o n a l s u p p o rt to accommodate young p a r e n ts and t h e i r c h ild re n * As th e s e f a m i l i e s a g e , com m ercial and i n s t i t u t i o n a l i z e d s e r v ic e s change c o n s i s t e n t w ith th e age c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f th e p o p u la tio n s e rv e d . The c h o ic e o f p o t e n t i a l o cc u p an ts o f u n i t s w ith in th e s e n eig h b o rh o o d s i s a f f e c t e d by th e fa m ily c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f t h e i r p r e s e n t o c c u p a n ts . At th e same tim e , t h i s movement g r e a t l y a f f e c t s a r e a s l e f t b e h in d . The y o u n g e r f a m i l i e s , le a v in g th e o ld e r b e h in d , c o n tr ib u te to th e a g in g o f th e fa m ily s t r u c t u r e i n ^ C a l v i n D. B e a le , " N a tu ra l D ecrease o f P o p u la tio n : The C u rre n t and P ro s p e c tiv e S ta tu s o f an Em ergent A m erican Phenom enon," Demography * Vol* 6 , No. 2 (May, 1969)* 91~ 100. 2* 4 - th e c e n te r o f th e m e tro p o lis * B eale r e p o r t s t h a t o n e - s ix th o f th e c o u n tie s i n th e n a t i o n w i l l e x p e rie n c e an e x c e s s o f d e a th s o v e r b i r t h s , p r i n c i p a l l y b e cau se o f o u tm ig ra tio n o f c o u p le s o f c h ild b e a r in g a g e .1? The c a s e o f th e m e tro p o li ta n c e n t r a l c i t y i s q u ite s i m i l a r to t h a t o f th e s e a g in g c o u n tie s . The E f f e c t o f R a c ia l C om position on M a rk e ta b ility L i t e r a t u r e on th e e f f e c t t h a t r a c i a l change h a s on h o u sin g v a lu e i s m ixed i n c o n c lu s io n s . V ario u s ty p o th e s e s 18 on th e e f f e c t o f N egroes on H ousing h av e been o f f e r e d , le d by t h a t w hich l i n k s th e e n try o f n o n -C a u c a sia n s to t h a t o f a d e c lin e i n m ark et v a l u e . I n a r e c e n t stu d y o f Los A ngeles C ounty, i t was d e te rm in e d t h a t in d e e d Negro e n tr y was u s u a lly c o in c id e n t w ith a d e c lin e i n h o u sin g c o s t b u t t h a t th e d e c lin e had been i n p r o g re s s f o r a t l e a s t a 19 decade b e fo re Negro e n t r y . R a th e r th a n a f f e c t i n g c o s t , th e Negro i s a f f e c t e d by i t . H aving a lo w e r income th a n th e C a u c a sia n , and b e in g th e o b je c t o f r a c i a l d isc rim in a tio n 1 ? I b i d . 1®Por a d is c u s s io n o f v a r io u s h y p o th e s e s , s e e : John Mark M oQ uiston. Negro R e s id e n tia l^ In v a s io n i n Los A ngeles County (Los A n g e le s: M cQ uiston A s s o c ia te s , p p . 1 M — 34-. See a l s o : Weimer an d rH o y t. -^ Jo h n Mark M cQ uiston, "C hanging R e la tiv e H ousing V alue i n Negro and C a u ca sian N e ig h b o rh o o d s," a p a p e r p r e s e n te d a t th e 1968 M eeting o f th e B a c if io S o c io lo g ic a l A s s o c ia tio n , San F r a n c is c o , C a lif o r n i a . 25 i n h o u s in g , th e Negro a w a its th e a v a i l a b i l i t y o f second hand o r m u lti- h a n d h o u s in g i n th e o ld e r and l e s s d e s ir a b le 20 r e s i d e n t i a l a r e a s . B a th e r th a n " b lo c k b u s tin g ," he h a s an a r e a r e le a s e d to him by th e C a u c a sia n . Once th e Negro h a s e n te r e d an a r e a , how ever, he i s n o t s u c c e s s f u l i n r a i s i n g th e c o s t o f h o u sin g w ith in t h a t a r e a , and th e c o s t o f h o u s in g c o n tin u e s to d e c lin e . At th e same tim e , th e p re s e n c e o f a few Negro f a m il ie s i n a n e ig h borhood a c t s to i n h i b i t p o t e n t i a l C a u ca sian o cc u p an ts sim ply b ecau se o f s o c i a l d is c r i m in a tio n . One may d e te rm in e th e e x te n t t o w hioh a b s o lu te s o c ia l i n t e g r a t i o n h a s ta k e n p la c e by s tu d y in g "handicapped" g ro u p s w ith r e s p e c t to s t r a t e g i c ju n c tu r e s i n th e s o c io econom ic c y c le . S u b s t a n t i a l g a in s m ust be made i n th e s o c i a l s c i e n t i s t s * u s e o f tim e s e r i e s a n a ly s e s and i n h i s a c c e s s to d a ta w ith w h ich to d ev elo p m o d e ls. O tis D udley Duncan s t a t e s t h a t " p r e s e n t know ledge i s in a d e q u a te to th e ta s k o f fo rm u la tin g s p e c i f i c p ro p o s a ls f o r r e d i r e c t i n g 21 t r e n d s ." The p a t t e r n o f s o c i a l s e g r e g a tio n i n h o u sin g i s a p p a re n t. As C a u ca sian s le a v e th e n e ig h b o rh o o d , v a c a te d 20Hans B lu m en feld , "The U rban P a t t e r n ," The A nnals o f th e A m erican Academy o f P o l i t i c a l and .S o c ia l S c ie n c e s , CCCLII (M arch, 19o£ ) , o0 . 21 x0 t i s D udley D uncan, " D is c rim in a tio n a g a in s t N eg ro es," Ehe A nnals o f the. A m erican Academy o f P o l i t i c a l and S o c ia l S c ie n c e s . CCOLXXI (May. 1 9 6 7 ). 8 5 . 26 h o u sin g becomes s o le ly n o n -C a u c a sia n w ith r e s p e c t to i t s p o t e n t i a l o c c u p a n ts , due to s o c i a l s e g r e g a tio n and i t s e f f e c t s • CHAPTER I I I SOCIAL STRUCTURAL DETERMINISM IN HOUSING COST W ith a c o n tin u o u s ly ex p an d ab le p e r im e te r and an abundance, o f1 new d w e llin g u n i t s , c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s w hich p a r t i c u l a r l y w e ll d e s c r ib e th e w e s te rn m e tr o p o lis , f a m il ie s may be q u ite s e l e c t i v e i n t h e i r c h o ic e o f r e s i d e n t i a l n eig h b o rh o o d s* As new h o u sin g d ev elo p m en ts a re c o n s tr u c te d a lo n g th e p e r im e te r o f th e m e tr o p o lis , r e s i d e n t i a l a r e a s in th e u rb a n c o re d e c re a s e i n r e l a t i v e d e s i r a b i l i t y a s th e p e r im e te r e x p a n d s. To th e c a s u a l o b s e r v e r , i t m ig h t a p p e al t h a t th e r e i s a d i r e c t r e l a t i o n s h i p betw een th e r e l a t i v e age o f d w e llin g s and th e s t r u c t u r e o f th e r e l a t i v e c o s t o f h o u sin g i n n e ig h b o rh o o d s w ith in th e m e tr o p o lita n a r e a . Gottmann r e f e r s to th e d e s i r a b i l i t y o r c o s t o f a n e ig h b o r hood a s a m u ltip le x ! ty o f f a s h io n , c o s t m ain ten an ce and v a r io u s o th e r s o c ia l i n g r e d i e n t s .^ T hese in g r e d ie n ts com b in e d p ro d u ce s o c i a l o b so le sc e n c e w hich i n tu r n p ro d u c e s p h y s ic a l d e t e r i o r a t i o n and a le s s e n in g o f h o u sin g c o s t . ^ J e a n G ottm ann. M e g a lo p o lis (New Y ork: The Twen t i e t h C entury. Fund, 1 9 o i ; , p . A-6V. 27 28 She slum th e n i s th e r e s u l t , n o t th e c a u se o f o b s o le s - 2 c e n c e . I n th e p re c e d in g c h a p te r s , v a r io u s c o n c e p tu a l com p o n e n ts have been p r e s e n te d w hich d e s c r ib e th e s o c ia l com p o n e n ts o f h o u sin g c o s t . These com ponents w i l l be t r a n s l a t e d i n t o th e f o llo w in g th e o iy i n th e form o f a m ath em ati c a l m odel c o n c e rn in g th e s t r u c t u r e o f th e r e l a t i v e h o u sin g c o s t among r e s i d e n t i a l n eig h b o rh o o d s w ith in - th e w e s te rn m e tr o p o lis . A T heoiy o f R e la tiv e N eighborhood R e s id e n tia l V alue The r e l a t i v e c o s t o f a 'n e ig h b o rh o o d a s a p la c e o f re s id e n c e Ya* a t a p a r t i c u l a r tim e Tx , i s a fu n c tio n o f i t s p la c e on a continuum o f n eig h b o rh o o d h o u sin g c o s t w ith in th e m e tr o p o lis . * T h is c o s t i x i s a com posite o f th e r e l a t i v e v a lu e o f th e n eig h b o rh o o d a s a p la c e o f r e s id e n c e f o r r e n t e r s Cnr and f o r homeowners C iIq . C ost i s d eterm in ed by s e v e r a l c o n c e p tu a l s o c i a l s t r u c t u r a l com ponents a s s o c ia te d w ith r e l a t i v e n eig h b o rh o o d h o u sin g c o s t . The com p o n e n t p a r t s o f r e l a t i v e h o u sin g c o s t a t tim e x a re a t l e a s t : 1 . The r e l a t i v e c o s t o f th e n eig h b o rh o o d h o u sin g i n th e m ost r e c e n t p a s t , q j • X * “J. 2E d g a r M. H oover and Raymond V ernon, Anatomy o f a M e tro p o lis ( Cam bridge: H arv ard U n iv e r s ity P r e s s , 195 9 )• See a l s o : Leo F . S c h n o re , "The Socio-Econom ic S ta tu s o f C i t i e s and S u b u rb s," A m erican S o c io lo g ic a l Review . V o l. 28, No. 1 ( F e b ru a iy , 1 9 6 3 ), 8 2 . 29 2 . The s ta g e o f s t r u c t u r a l m a tu rity and te c h n o l o g i c a l o h so le sc e n o e w hich h e a t c h a r a c te r i z e s th e n e ig h b o rh o o d ) S0n • ®x . 3 . The s ta g e o f fa m ily m a tu rity w hich b e s t c h a ra c t e r i z e s th e n eig h b o rh o o d ) • *+. The p ro x im ity o f th e n eig h b o rh o o d to an u n a c c e p ta b le p o p u la tio n g ro u p 9 UIL , 5 . A ll o th e r in te r v e n in g s o c ia l s t r u c t u r a l compo n e n ts . • ‘ ■ x r I f th e s e com ponents a re a d d itiv e and may be u s e d i n an e x p r e s s io n to d e s c r ib e r e l a t i v e c o s t) ' th e e x p re s s io n m ight be w r i t t e n : CnTx - c n a * .! + S O ^ + + V S x ^ * An e q u a tio n p r e d i c t i n g Ch,^ m ig h t be w r i tte n : 0nTx = °“ T x-2 + ^ + P ^ T x -1 + + 0 aTx-l This e x p r e s s io n m ig h t be u s e d to d e s c r ib e th e r e l a t i v e d e s i r a b i l i t y o f n e ig h b o rh o o d n* a t tim e Tx. The e x p re s s io n may be t r a n s l a t e d a s a m a th e m a tic a l fo rm u la w ith th e a d d i- i tio n o f w e ig h ts ) W t.9 t o e a c h o f th e te rm s th e d e s c r ip tiv e 3 e g u a tio n w ould b e : ^The f o rm u la 'c o rre s p o n d s to th e m u ltip le r e g r e s s io n e q u a tio n w ith o u t an e r r o r te rm . 3° cn/jj ~ w t* 9d u j j , + wt - s 9arp + w t* + wb* 9 n j • X X " i X X X The te rm 0 - i s a co m p o site o f a l l in te r v e n in g s t r u c t u r a l com ponents and i s o f unknown s t r u c t u r a l c h a r a c te r . I t i s o f t h e o r e t i c a l l y i n s i g n i f i c a n t im p o rta n c e , a s i t h a s n o t been in c lu d e d a s a s i n g u l a r com ponent. Thus h e r e , th e fo rm u la may be r e w r i t t e n : H ow ever, th e e f f e c t o f Ca d im in is h e s w ith tim e a s e a c h ■ •■ x-N Ca a t T 1 ...H may be r e p la c e d by i t s s o c i a l s t r u c t u r a l com p o n e n ts : ^Tx-i “ W t* C ^ l Ix-2 + W t* S °nT x-i + + W t* U ^ c - i and P n i s wt* 0nT UPnT , and so f o r t h , x— 2 x -3 x— 2 T h e r e f o re , th e c o n t r i b u t i o n o f r e l a t i v e h o u sin g c o s t a s i t a p p e a rs on th e r ig h t- h a n d s id e o f th e e q u a tio n d im in is h e s w ith tim e , once th e new ly c o n s tr u c te d n eig h b o rh o o d becom es p o p u la te d . i i The E s ta b lis h m e n t o f a Base f o r F u tu re M o rp h o lo g ical Change The e f f e c t o f r e a l d o l l a r c o s t i s to e s t a b l i s h th e o r i g i n a l m a rk e t o r b ase p r ic e a t tim e o f c o n s tr u c tio n t o a t t r a c t p o t e n t i a l o c c u p a n ts . The d o l l a r p r ic e i s r e l a t i v e t o an e x p e c te d h o u sin g m a rk e t. Once th e developm ent h a s 31 b een o c c u p ie d , r e l a t i v e h o u sin g v a lu e h a s to do w ith th e a b i l i t y o f th e n e ig h b o rh o o d to a t t r a o t r e s i d e n ts and to h o ld i t s p r e s e n t o c c u p a n ts . A ttr a c to r s have to do w ith d w e llin g u n i t age and o b s o le s c e n c e , fa m ily a g e , and th e p ro x im ity o f th e n eig h b o rh o o d to a p o p u la tio n c o n s id e re d u n a c c e p ta b le a s n e ig h b o r s . The r e t e n t i o n o f i t s p r e s e n t r e s i d e n t s h a s to do w ith th e m ain ten an ce o f s o c ia l s t r u c t u r a l com ponents o f h o u sin g r e l a t i v e c o s t w ith in some l e v e l o f t o l e r a n c e . To a c c o u n t f o r fa m ily r e t e n t i o n , o u r e q u a tio n sh o u ld in c lu d e a te rm m e asu rin g th e a b i l i t y o f th e n e ig h b orh o o d to h o ld i t s o c c u p a n ts , t h a t i s , to m a in ta in i t s if v a lu e to th o s e who have s e le c te d i t i r r e s p e c t i v e o f a l a t e r change i n n eig h b o rh o o d p o s i t i o n on th e continuum o f m e tr o p o lita n n eig h b o rh o o d h o u sin g c o s t . I f we c a l l t h i s com ponent m e asu rin g th e a b i l i t y o f th e n eig h b o rh o o d to h o ld i t s r e s i d e n t s , r e s i d e n t i a l s t a b i l i t y [H S ], and add i t to o u r f o rm u la , we may w r ite th e d e s c r ip tiv e e q u a tio n : and th e p r e d i c t i v e e q u a tio n : XO uuA a t a u o o l I I l l i n o i s : The F re e P re s s k P e t e r H . E o ssi F a m ilie s Move (G len o o e, 3 2 R e s id e n tia l s t a b i l i t y th e n , i s u se d a s a proxy f o r th e c u m u la tiv e e f f e c t s o f s t r u c t u r a l h is t o r y on t r a c t d e s i r a b i l i t y a s a p la c e o f re s id e n c e # Some I m p lic a tio n s o f th e Theory o f S t r u c t u r a l D eterm inism T h is th e o ry s u g g e s ts t h a t th e re i s c a u s a l r e l a t i o n s h ip b etw een th e s t r u c t u r e o f a n e ig h b o rh o o d , i n te rm s o f i t s p h y s ic a l and s o c i a l d e s i r a b i l i t y , and th e r e l a t i v e c o s t o r v a lu e o f h o u sin g i n t h a t n eig h b o rh o o d . The th e o ry a ls o s u g g e s ts d i f f e r e n t i a l d e s i r a b i l i t y among p o p u la tio n g ro u p s , a s d i f f e r e n t p o p u la tio n g ro u p s may be d e fin e d a s u n a c c e p t a b le a s n e ig h b o rs to d i f f e r e n t o th e r g ro u p s . T h is d i f f e r e n t i a t i o n w ould e x p la in r e l a t i v e v a lu e m ain ten an ce i n an a r e a o f s e v e r a l n eig h b o rh o o d s p o p u la te d by a g roup o r g ro u p s c o n s id e re d u n a c c e p ta b le to th e m a jo rity o f m e tro p o l i t a n r e s i d e n t s . As lo n g a s h o u sin g and fa m ily m a tu r ity rem a in a t a l e v e l c o n s i s te n t w ith th e re q u ire m e n ts o f t h i s " u n a c c e p ta b le p o p u la tio n ," th e group w i l l c o n tin u e to se e k h o u sin g w ith in th e s e n e ig h b o rh o o d s, th u s m a in ta in in g n e ig h - 5 borhood h o u s in g c o s t . I f t h i s p o p u la tio n p o o l i s e x h a u ste d b e fo re i t c o m p le te ly p o p u la te s th e a r e a , o r i f ch an g es i n h o u sin g and fa m ily m a tu rity com ponents make th e , a r e a u n d e s ir a b le f o r t h i s p o p u la tio n , th e a r e a w i l l l o s e • F ra n k lin F r a z i e r , "The Kegro M iddle C la ss and D e s e g re g a tio n ," S o c ia l P ro b le m s. No. 5 (O c to b e r, 1 9 5 7 )• 3 0 1 . ~ . s 3 3 i t s a t t r a c t i o n a s a p la c e o f r e s id e n c e to t h i s g ro u p a s w e ll a s t h a t o f th e m a jo r i ty . I n a d d i ti o n , t h i s th e o iy im p lie s t h a t n eig h b o rh o o d s d e c re a s e i n r e l a t i v e h o u sin g c o s t i n c o n tig u o u s g ro u p s . As t r a c t s a re d ev elo p ed c o n tig u o u s to one a n o th e r a t a b o u t th e same tim e , th e y w i l l te n d to become p h y s ic a lly and te c h n o lo g i c a l ly o b s o le s c e n t a t s i m i l a r tim e s . S i m i l a r ly , a s r e s i d e n t i a l in v a s io n o c c u rs d is p r o p o r tio n a te ly among c o n tig u o u s a r e a s , ch an g es i n r e l a t i v e d e s i r a b i l i t y sh o u ld a ls o te n d to fo llo w c o n tig u o u s l i n e s . CHAPITER IV AN EMPIRICAL EVALUATION OP STRUCTURAL LBTERMINISM B asic to a t e s t o f th e th e o ry o f r e s i d e n t i a l s t r u c t u r a l d eterm in ism in th e h o r i z o n t a ll y ex p an d in g w e s te rn m e tro p o lis i s th e s e l e c t i o n o f an a d e q u a te s i t e f o r s tu d y . As t h i s th e o ry in c lu d e s te m p o ra lly o r ie n te d te rm s , r e q u ir e m ents f o r s i t e s e le c tio n n e c e s s a r i l y in c lu d e th e f e a s i b i l i t y o f th e c o l l e c ti o n o f tim e s e r i e s d a t a . The s i t e m ust a ls o m eet th e s u b s ta n tiv e re q u ire m e n ts o f b ein g b o th m etro p o l i t a n and w e s te rn . C hoosing a S u ita b le S i t e f o r E v a lu a tio n W estern i s d e fin e d a s th e W estern R egion o f th e U n ite d S t a t e s a s e s ta b li s h e d by th e B ureau o f th e Census The age p r o f i l e o f th e h o u sin g in v e n to ry f o r th e W estern ^The 19*+0 ce n su s d e f i n i t i o n u s e d in c lu d e s A riz o n a , C a l i f o r n i a , C o lo rad o , Id a h o , M ontana, N evada, New M exico, U ta h , W ashington, Wyoming, Sees U, S . B ureau o f th e C en su s, S ix te e n th Census o f th e U n ite d S t a t e s . 19*4-0 H ousing V o l. I I . G en eral C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s P a r t I . U. S . Summary (W ash in g to n , L. C.s Government P r i n t i n g O f f ic e ) . 3^ 35 R egion a t each o f th e th r e e m oat r e c e n t c e n s u s e s i s shown i n T able * f .l. The p r o f i l e o f h o u sin g c o n s tr u c tio n i n C a lif o r n i a f o r th e decade im m ed iately p re c e d in g ea ch o f th e th r e e c e n s u s e s i s q u ite s i m i l a r to t h a t o f th e W estern R egion a s a w hole. Los A n g eles C ounty, th e l a r g e s t s in g le com ponent o f th e C a lif o r n ia h o u sin g in v e n to r y , h a s a p ro f i l e o f h o u sin g age s im ila r to . t h a t o f C a lif o r n i a and th e W estern R eg io n . The Los A ngeles m e tro p o lita n a r e a i s th e p ro to ty p e 2 o f th e w e s te rn m e tro p o lis . I t c o n s i s t s o f low d e n s ity h o u sin g and i s c h a r a c te r iz e d by u rb a n s p ra w l. P r o to ty p ic a l o f th e w e s te rn m e tro p o lis , i t s g e o g ra p h ic s i t e i s s u f f i c i e n t l y f a r from o th e r m e tro p o lis e s to p re c lu d e econom ic c o m p e titio n f o r th e r e s i d e n t i a l p o p u la tio n n e a r i t s p e r i m e te r . The accom m odation f o r an in c r e a s in g p o p u la tio n h a s c o n s is te d o f th e c o n s tr u c tio n o f low d e n s ity r e s i d e n t i a l development* on "th e p e rim e te r, o f th e L os A n g eles m e tro p o li ta n a r e a , and t h i s p r a c t ic e i s e x p e c te d to c o n tin u e a s open la n d and la n d p r e s e n tly i d l e o r i n a g r i c u l t u r a l u s e i s s t i l l a v a ila b le i n la rg e q u a n t i t i e s . B eing w e s te rn , w ith a / d w e llin g u n i t age p r o f i l e s i m i l a r to t h a t o f th e w est a s a w hole," and h av in g a p e r im e te r w hich h a s expanded h i s t o r i c a l l y and w hich i s f r e e to expand ev en f a r t h e r , Los A n g eles o Leo P . S ohnore, The U rban Scene (New Y ork: The F ree P r e s s , 1 9 6 5 ), p p . I6*f, 215. TABLE) lf.l THE 191*0 , 1950 AND I960 HOUSING INVENTORY* . UNITED STATES AND SELECTED ABE AS DWELLING UNITS U n ited S ta te s W estern R egion P a c i f ic S ta te s i C a lif o r n ia ( ■ ■ Los A ngeles County San F ra n c is c o O akland 19l*0 HOUSING INVENTORY P e rc e n t b u i l t i n t h i s 2N-.6 2**.3 decade 1 5 .9 2h .7 2 5 .2 . 1 5 .7 P e rc e n t b u i l t i n th e 2*f.6 31*.7 1*6.3 p re v io u s decade P e rc e n t b u i l t tw en ty o r 3 1 .2 3 7 .5 3 2 .2 more y e a r s ago 59.5 M +.l 1*0.7 3 7 .3 2 9 .1 * 5 2 .1 TOTAL T o ta l num ber o f d w ell 1 0 0 .0 1 0 0 .0 1 0 0 .0 1 0 0 .0 1 0 0 .0 1 0 0 .0 in g u n i t s 3 7 ,3 2 5 ,^ 9 0 1 *,5 3 9 ,2 1 1 3 ,3 0 0 ,6 2 3 2 ,3^ 0,373 9 8 7 ,0 5 5 1*80,81*5 Number o f d w e llin g u n i t s tw en ty o r more y e a rs 2 2 ,2 0 8 ,6 5 ^ 2 ,0 0 1 ,7 9 2 1,31+3,353 872,959 2 9 0 , 191* 250,520 o ld 1 1950 HOUSING INVENTORY P e rc e n t b u i l t i n t h i s 3>*.9 28.1* decade 2 0 .8 3 2 .9 3 3 .8 3 3 .8 P e rc e n t b u i l t i n th e p re v io u s decade P e rc e n t b u i l t tw en ty o r 1 3 .3 1 7 .7 1 8 .0 1 8 .6 1 9 .6 1 2 .1 + more y e a r s ago 6 5 .9 1 + 9 .1 + 1*8.2 U 6.5 1*6.6 5 8 .2 TOTAL 1 0 0 .0 1 0 0 .0 1 0 0 .0 1 0 0 .0 1 0 0 .0 1 0 0 .0 O' TABLE 4.1— Continued DWELLING UNITS U n ited S ta te s W estern R egion P a c i f ic S t a t e s ] C a lif o r o ia Los A ngeles , f County ; San F ra n c is c o O akland 1950 HOUSING INVEB tort— Co n tin u e d T o ta l num ber o f d w e llin g u n i t s **5 > 9 8 3 ,398 6 ,5 3 2 ,7 8 5 ^ ,9 2 ^ ,3 6 ^ 3 ,5 9 0 ,6 6 0 1 ,5 2 1 ,8 ^ 9 7*tl ,668 Number o f d w e llin g u n i t s tw en ty o r more y e a r s 2 7 ,0 0 8 ,0 5 9 3 , 227,196 2 ,3 7 3 ,5 ^ 3 1 ,6 6 9 ,6 5 7 709,181 > 3 5 ,7 2 5 o ld * .960 HOUSING INVENTORY P e rc e n t b u i l t i n t h i s decade 2 5 .7 3*f.7 3 7 .1 k o .o 3 8 .0 28 A P e rc e n t b u i l t i n th e p re v io u s decade 1 5 .1 2 0 .0 2 0 .3 2 0 .2 2 1 .2 1 8 .1 P e rc e n t b u i l t tw en ty o r more y e a r s ago 5 9 .2 ^ 5 .3 ± 2 .6 : 3 9 .8 **0.8 5 3 .5 TOTAL . 1 0 0 .0 1 0 0 .0 . 1 0 0 .0 1 0 0 .0 1 0 0 .0 1 0 0 .0 T o ta l num ber o f d w e ll- in g s u n i ts 58 > 6 8 ,0 0 0 9,5^3,7*tO 7 , 0 9 8 , 2^2 5 > 6 5 ,8 7 0 2 ,1 ^ 3 ,2 2 7 9 7 8 ,3 9 5 Number o f d w e llin g u n i t s • tw en ty o r more y e a r s 3 ^ ,6 1 3 ,0 5 6 “ f ,323,31** 3 ,0 2 3 ,8 5 1 2,2^-7,056 87*f > 3 6 523 M l o l d ...... ... , ______ # S o u rc es o f T ab le **.1. 19*+0 H ousing In v e n to ry ; U. S . B ureau o f th e C ensus, S ix te e n th Census o f th e U n ite d S t a t e s , 19*K): (1 ) U n ite d S ta te s ; W estern R egion; P a c i f ic S ta te s and C a lif o r n ia ; H ousing Volume I I G en eral C h a r a c te r i s tic s P a r t I , U. S . Summary, (2 ) Los A n g eles County and San F ra n c isc o -O a k la n d ; C a l i f o r n i a , H ousing C harac t e r i s t i c s by Type o f S t r u c t u r e , U , S . B ureau o f th e C ensus. 1950 H ousing In v e n to ry ; 1950 U . S . Census o f H ousing: U n ite d S t a t e s , W estern R eg io n , P a c i f i c S t a t e s , C a lif o r n ia ; Los A ngeles County and San F ra n c isc o -O a k la n d . Volume I , G eneral C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s P a r t I , U n ite d S t a t e s Summary. I9 6 0 H ousing In v e n to ry ; U . S . B ureau o f th e C en su s, U . S . Census o f H ousing; i 960 V o l. I S ta te s and S m all A re a s . --• 38 i s an i d e a l s i t e f o r t h i s s tu d y . The A rea o f Study **v ^ x . Los A ngeles Cotui1y'’i a s h eeh c e n s u s tr a o te d f o r * > i th r e e d e c a d e s . T h e re fo re d a ta p e r t a i n i n g to h o u sin g v a lu e . '' - L l and s t r u c t u r a l com ponents o f h o u sin g c o s t a re a v a ila b le in th e form o f cen su s d a ta by c e n su s t r a c t . I n a d d i t i o n , a com parable g r id o f cen su s t r a c t s e x i s t s w hich r e s o lv e s r e d e f i n i t i o n o f cen su s t r a c t b o u n d a rie s from 19^0 to I9 6 0 . The a v a i l a b i l i t y o f d a ta f o r l a r g e , c o n s i s t e n t l y d e fin e d a r e a s f o r a c o n s id e ra b le le n g th o f tim e f u r t h e r en c o u ra g es th e s e l e c t i o n o f Los A n g eles a s a s i t e f o r t e s t . Los A n g eles County i s an i d e a l w e s te rn m e tro p o lis f o r o u r e m p ir ic a l t e s t o f s t r u c t u r a l d e te rm in is m . I t e x e m p lifie s th e u rb a n sp raw l t h a t i s c h a r a c t e r i s t i c o f th e w e s te rn m e tr o p o lis , i t i s .in d e p en d en t o f o th e r m e tr o p o lis e s , and com parable c o s t and s o c i a l s t r u c t u r a l p r o f i l e d a ta e x i s t ^Betw een 19^0 and i 9 6 0 , th e num ber o f c e n su s t r a c t s i n Los A ngeles County h a s more th a n d o u b le d . Changing b o u n d a rie s make lo n g itu d in a l a n a ly s is b a s e d on in d iv id u a l t r a c t d a ta im p o s s ib le . I n o r d e r to f a c i l i t a t e co m p arativ e a n a l y s i s , a com posite g r i d o f t r a c t c o m b in a tio n s f o r 19* + 0 , 1950 and I960 h a s been d ev e lo p ed by th e U n iv e r s ity o f S o u th e rn C a lif o r n ia P o p u la tio n R e se a rc h L a b o ra to ry . These g r i d c o m b in atio n s were o r i g i n a l l y d e lim ite d by B e v erly D uncan. G ross acreag e w ere com bined w ith d w e llin g u n i t c o u n ts l i s t e d i n th e 19I+ O and 1950 C ensus T ra c t B u l l e t i n s , and e s tim a te s o f th e 1920 and 1930 h o u s in g u n i t in v e n to rie e w ere o b ta in e d from th e 19^0 B lock S t a t i s t i c s B u l l e t i n s . The co m p o site g r id was d e sig n e d so t h a t g r i d b o u n d a rie s n e v e r d iv id e ce n su s t r a c t s r e g a r d le s s o f th e c e n su s y e a r , 19* + 0 , 1950 o r I9 6 0 . 39 c o v e rin g many d ecad es f o r com parable s u b a re a s o f th e m e tr o p o lis . The C hoice o f an E q u a tio n The th e o ry o f s t r u c t u r a l d eterm in ism h a s been s t a t e d i n th e form o f a m a th em a tic al e q u a tio n w hich in c lu d e s w eig h ted s o c i a l s t r u c t u r a l com ponents i n an a d d i t i v e fo rm , s im ila r to t h a t o f th e commonly u s e d l i n e a r m u ltip le r e g r e s s io n fo rm u la • A lthough s i m i l a r , th e r e a re n o ta b le d if f e r e n c e s betw een o u r e q u a tio n and th e l i n e a r m u ltip le r e g r e s s io n fo rm u la . F i r s t , th e commonly u s e d fo rm u la f o r th e m u ltip le r e g r e s s io n m odel i s : f y = a + bXi + bx ^ . • • b ^ . w ith th e e r r o r te rm s e t a t z e r o . The th e o ry o f s o c i a l s t r u c t u r a l d e te rm in ism , how ever, s p e c i f i e s t h a t g iv e n - 0 , X2 = 0 . . . xn = 0; y = u n d e f in e d , n o t a . The t h e o r e t i c a l j u s t i f i c a t i o n u se d i s t h a t w ith o u t d w e llin g s , th e r e s i d e n t i a l v a lu e o f th e n eig h b o rh o o d m ust be U n d e fin e d . I f th e r e g r e s s io n l i n e sh o u ld be fo rc e d to f i t th ro u g h th e o r i g i n r a t h e r th a n a , t h i s t h e o r e t i c a l q u a l i f i - II c a tio n may be ta k e n i n t o a c c o u n t. T h is t h e o r e t i c a l ^K . W. S m ill ie , An I n tr o d u c tio n to R e g re ssio n and C o r r e la tio n (T o ro n to : The IJyerson £ r e s s , 1 9 b o ;. p p . 2 6 -2 9 . See a ls o : E . J . W illia m s, R e g re ssio n A n a ly s is (New Y ork: Jo h n W iley & S ons, 1959)> p p . 1 ^ -1 6 ; and M. A. E fro y m sen , " M u ltip le R e g re ssio n A n a ly s is ," i n R a ls to n & Wolf , e d s . , M a th em atical M ethods f o r D ig ita l Com puters (New Y ork: Wiley, 1$60), Ifrari V. ------------------- --------- 40 c o n s id e r a tio n i s m ost o f te n ig n o re d by u s e r s o f th e m u lt i p le r e g r e s s io n te c h n iq u e . E m p iric a lly f i t t i n g th e r e g r e s s io n l i n e th ro u g h th e o r i g i n r e s u l t s i n g r e a t e r com para b i l i t y among r e g r e s s io n c o e f f i c i e n t a c r o s s r e g r e s s io n m o d e ls. Thus in te r-m o d e l co m p ariso n s may be made among r e g r e s s i o n c o e f f i c i e n t s a s w e ll a s co m p ariso n s o f v a r ia n c e a c c o u n tin g f o r each o f th e s t r u c t u r a l com ponents i n an e q u a tio n . The o th e r m ajo r d if f e r e n c e betw een th e t h e o r e t i c a l e q u a tio n o f s t r u c t u r a l d e te rm in ism and t h a t o f th e m u ltip le . l i n e a r r e g r e s s io n fo rm u la i s t h a t o f p a r t i a l r e g r e s s io n a n a l y s i s and p a r t i a l e n t r y . Our th e o ry s p e c i f i e s t h a t r e l a t i v e v a lu e i s a f u n c tio n o f s t r u c t u r a l com ponents i n an a d d i tiv e r e l a t i o n s h i p a f t e r w e ig h tin g . The th e o ry p ro p o se s t h a t a l l com ponents a re n e c e s s a ry and t h a t when com b in e d th e y a re s u f f i c i e n t to d e s c rib e o r p r e d i c t r e l a t i v e v a l u e . S u ff ic ie n c y may be m easured th ro u g h th e u s e o f th e s ta n d a r d p a r t i a l r e g r e s s io n fo rm u la , b u t th e im p o rtan ce and o r d e r o f im p o rtan ce o f th e com ponents may n o t . The ste p w ise m u ltip le r e g r e s s i o n fo rm u la a llo w s th e r e a r r a n g in g o f in d e p e n d e n t v a r ia b l e s to c o rre sp o n d to t h e i r r e l a t i v e c o n tr ib u tio n to th e r e g r e s s io n sum o f s q u a re s and th e r e d u c tio n o f r e s i d u a l v a r ia n c e . V a r ia b le s a re e n te r e d a f t e r p a r t i a l a n a l y s i s , w hich a llo w s th e e s ta b lis h m e n t o f a c u t t i n g p o in t o f a p a r t i c u l a r l e v e l o f s ig n if ic a n c e f o r k l e n tr y i n t o th e e q u a tio n a f t e r p a r t i a l l i n g . Thus th e e q u a -; t i o n may he e v a lu a te d f o r b o th red u n d an cy and s u p e rflu o u s 5 com ponent p a r t s , an a lg e b r a ic n e c e s s i t y . T h e r e f o re , t h i s m ethod o f p a r t i a l r e g r e s s io n a n a ly s is f a c i l i t a t e s th e t e s t o f th e th e o ry o f s t r u c t u r a l d eterm in ism a s i t h a s b een con** s t r u c t e d .^ The u se o f th e m u ltip le r e g r e s s i o n te c h n iq u e a s a m easure o f th e tem p o ra l p a th o f in d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e s a s th e y a f f e c t th e v alu e o f a d ep en d en t v a r i a b l e i s l a r g e l y ig n o re d i n s o c io lo g y . The r e c e n t em ergence o f p a th a n a ly s i s h a s b ro u g h t a re s u rg e n c e o f th e u s e o f th e m u ltip le 7 r e g r e s s io n te c h n iq u e . The p a r t i a l r e g r e s s i o n te c h n iq u e ad d s a com ponent n o t in c lu d e d i n p a th a n a l y s i s , t h a t o f th e p a r t i a l l e d p ro p o rtio n o f v a ria n c e i n th e d ep e n d en t v a r ia b le . « a c c o u n te d f o r by each in d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e , g iv e n a l l v a r i a b l e s in c lu d e d in th e e q u a tio n a t t h a t tim e . F u r th e r , i t a llo w s th e rev iew and u se o f r e g r e s s i o n c o e f f i c i e n t s and i t d r a m a tic a lly shows th e e f f e c t s o f m u l t i c o l l i n e a r i t y ^ S m illie % o p . c i t .« p p . 61-69* ^ R o b ert a . G ordon, " I s s u e s i n M u ltip le R e g re s s io n ,!' A m erican J o u r n a l o f S o c io lo g y . V o l. 7 3 , No. 5 (M arch, 19 W , 592 - b lb . ‘ ? 0 t i s Dudley D uncan, "P a th A n a ly s is : S o c io lo g ic a l E x am p les," A m erican J o u r n a l o f S o c io lo g y * V o l. 7 2 , No. 1 ( J u ly , 1 § 6 6 ) ,.1 - 1 6 . See a l s o : ti. M. B la lo c k , J r . . " P a th C o e f f ip ie n ts V ersus R e g re ssio n C o e f f i c i e n t s ," A m erioan J o u r n a l o f S o c io lo g y . V o l. 7 2 , No. 6 (M ay, 1 9 6 7 ), 6 7 5 -6 7 6 . . ~~^2 i n th e p r e d ic t i o n o f th e dependent v a r i a b l e . T hat i s , i t d is p la y s m a th e m a tic a l redundancy among in d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e s , W ith o r w ith o u t p a r t i a l l i n g , th e i n t e r p r e t a t i o n w i l l n o t come from th e m a th e m a tic a l e q u a tio n b u t from th e th e o r e t i c a l im p o rta n ce o f th e v a r ia b le s i n a te m p o ra l sequence,® As we se e k to e m p ir ic a lly t e s t th e e q u a tio n s : CnTx * W - f c . B ^nix + wt* son i x + w t • + w t • Gn^x = w t • ^ ^ T x - l + W -t* S°n T x -l + W -t* F* ^ T x -l + W ‘ b* ^ ^ T x - l l i n e a r fo rm s , th e l i n e a r r e g r e s s io n fo rm u la , w i l l be u s e d m o d ifie d so t h a t a lp h a i s s e t a t z e r o . The s o lu t io n o f th e m u ltip le r e g r e s s io n e q u a tio n w i l l o f f e r w e ig h ts f o r sim u l a t i o n o r p r e d ic tio n and w i l l d eterm in e th e p r o p o r tio n o f v a r ia n c e ac c o u n te d f o r by each o f th e in d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e s fu rth e rm o re , as v a r i a b le s a r e added to th e r e g r e s s io n e q u a tio n by th e e x te n t to w hich th e y remove a p ro p o r t i o n o f th e v a ria n c e p r e v io u s ly u n a c c o u n te d f o r , e a c h equa t i o n may be t e s t e d f o r th e p re se n c e o f s u p e rflu o u s compo n e n t s . S t r u c t u r a l com ponents w hich a c c o u n t f o r an i n s i g n i f i c a n t amount o f v a r ia n c e i n th e d ep e n d en t v a r i a b l e , when p a r t i a l l e d , c o n s t i t u t e s u p e rflu o u s o n e s . As p r e v io u s ly ^K enneth P o lk , "A Note on A sym m etric C au sal M o d els." A m erican S o c io lo g ic a l Be v ie w . V o l. 2 7 . No, U - (A u g u st, ------------------- ^3 d is c u s s e d , th e ste p w ise m u ltip le r e g r e s s i o n te c h n iq u e a llo w s t h i s method o f a c c o u n tin g f o r n e c e s s a r y re la tio n -* s h i p s , p a r t i a l l i n g th e n t e s t i n g ea ch in d e p e n d e n t v a r ia b le b e fo re e n t r y . T e s tin g th e E q u a tio n The u se o f s ig n i f ic a n c e t e s t s i s a fo rm a l m ethod t o d e te rm in e w h eth er a s e t o r s e t s o f d a ta show h ap h a z a rd o r s y s te m a tic v a r i a t i o n . The e s ta b lis h m e n t o f th e l e v e l o f s ig n if ic a n c e sh o u ld n o t be i n t u i t i v e , b u t based on a p r o b a b i l i t y e s tim a te i t s e l f . ^ At th e same tim e , i n t e s t in g th e a c c u ra c y o f m odels o f th e th e o ry o f r e s i d e n t i a l s o c i a l - s t r u c t u r a l d e te rm in is m , i t sh o u ld be n o te d t h a t t h e r e a r e no p r e c is e s p e c i f i c a t i o n s f o r t h a t l e v e l o f a c c o u n ta b ili ty w hich may be s a id to be s u f f i c i e n t f o r th e a c c e p ta n c e o f th e s p e c i f i c th e o r y . T here h a s been no sub s t a n t i v e p re c e d e n t s e t . The u se o f s t a t i s t i c a l l e v e l s o f s ig n if ic a n c e i s a s u n i v e r s a l i n so c io lo g y a s th e u s e o f t e s t s th e m s e lv e s . T e s ts o f s i g n i f ic a n c e , how ev er, m ust be b o th s u b s ta n tiv e ly a p p r o p r ia te and a p p r o p r ia te to th e l e v e l s u p p o rte d by . p re v io u s r e s e a r c h .1^ At th e same tim e , one m ig h t c o n s tr u c t 9R o b ert F . Winch and Donald T . C am pbell, "P ro o f? I No. E v id en ce? Y es. The S ig n if ic a n c e o f T e s ts o f S i g n i f i c a n c e ," The A m erican S o c i o l o g i s t. V o l. *+, No. 2 (May, 1969> i lVo-143; 10Jam es K. S k ip p e r, Anthony L . G u en th er and G ilb e r t N a ss , "The S a c re d n e ss o f .0 5 :__ A N ote C on cern in g th e U ses . _ _ . _ an e q u a tio n b ased on tw en ty o r t h i r t y v a r i a b l e s , s e t a p a r t i c u l a r l e v e l o f s ig n if ic a n c e and th e n d e s c r ib e th e r e s u l t s * 11 . S t a t i s t i c a l s ig n if ic a n c e m ust f in d i t s r o o t s i n t h e o r e t i c a l o r s u b s ta n tiv e im p o rtan ce* The in c lu s io n o f e ach v a r ia b le i n th e r e s e a r c h d e s ig n m ust hhve p a r t i c u l a r t h e o r e t i c a l re le v a n c e * The t e s t th e n may be u s e d to d e s c r ib e t h e o r e t i c a l v a l i d i t y i f i t p r e c i s e ly r e p r e s e n t s a t h e o r e t i c a l p la n e . At th e same tim e , i f s ig n if ic a n c e i s e x p e c te d a t th e o u t s e t , th e a c c e p ta n c e o f th e n u l l h y p o th e s i s w here i t i s n o t th e o r iz e d i s d o u b le edged* I t n o t only a c t s to r e j e c t th e th e o r y , b u t i t o f te n i n d i c a t e s a la c k o f l o g i c a l s u f f ic ie n c y on th e p a r t o f th e re s e a r c h e r * Nor m a lly t e s t s o f s ig n if ic a n c e a r e u s e d to t e s t th e r e l a t i o n s h ip s among m odels, t h e o r e t i c a l to e m p ir ic a l a n d /o r e x p e r i- i m e n ta l to c o n t r o l. The t e s t i s u s e d t o a c c o u n t f o r d i f f e r en c e s a n d /o r s i m i l a r i t i e s once a l l im p o rta n t c o r r e l a t e d b ia s e s have been rem oved. As d i f f e r e n t i a t e d from th e 12 in t e r - p o p u l a t i o n u se d e s c rib e d by S e lv in , th e u s e h e re i s in tr a - p o p u la tio n * B a th e r th a n t e s t i n g th e s ig n if ic a n c e o f o f S t a t i s t i c a l l e v e l s o f S ig n if ic a n c e i n S o c ia l S c ie n c e ." The A m erican S o c io lo g i s t* V o l. 2 , No* 1 (F e b ru a ry , 1 9 6 7 ), 16-18* ^ L e s l i e K is h , "Some S t a t i s t i c a l P roblem s i n R e sea rc h D e sig n ." A m erican S o c io lo g ic a l R eview . V o l. 2 » ,' Ho. 3 ( J u n e , 1 9 5 9 ), 3 2 8 -3 3 8 .----- 12Hanan S e lv in , “A C r itiq u e o f l a s t s o f S i g n i f i - canoe i n S o o ia l R e s e a rc h ." A m erican S o c io lo g ic a l R eview . V o l. 2 3 , No* b (A u g u st, 195B J, ^ 1 9 -!? 2 7 r ---------- _ . _ if? th e e q u a tio n , th e s ig n if ic a n c e o f ea o h v a r i a b l e i n th e 13 e q u a tio n i s u n d e r t e s t . As one in tr o d u c e s v a r i a b l e s i n t o a ste p w ise m u lti p le r e g r e s s io n e q u a tio n , th e s ta n d a rd e r r o r o f e s tim a te may d e c re a s e to some p o i n t , th e n in c r e a s e • As th e num ber o f v a r i a b l e s in o lu d e d i n th e e q u a tio n in c r e a s e s , th e v a r i ance u s u a l l y in c r e a s e s ; how ever w ith e a c h added v a r i a b l e , th e e q u a tio n a lth o u g h l e s s p r e c i s e , i s more a c c u r a te . T hat i s , th e v a r i a b i l i t y o f a s in g le v a r i a b l e h a s l e s s Ilf e f f e c t on th e s o lu tio n o f th e e q u a tio n . I f th e l e v e l o f s ig n if ic a n c e u se d to e n t e r a v a r i a b l e i n t o th e r e g r e s s io n e q u a tio n i s s e t a t .0 1 , th e r e s u l t w i l l be a s ta n d a rd e r r o r o f e s tim a te o f g r e a t e r v a lu e th a n fo u n d a t .0 5 , w ith th e ✓ p o s s ib le in c lu s io n o f s u p e rflu o u s co m p o n en ts. At th e same * tim e , a l e v e l o f s ig n if ic a n c e s e t a t .1 0 r e s u l t s i n s ta n d ard e r r o r s o f e s tim a te above th e optim um , a s w e ll a s th e e x c lu s io n o f com ponents o f c o s t from th e e q u a tio n . D if f e r in g s t a t i s t i c a l m e a su re s, when t e s t e d , w i l l r e v e a l d i f f e r - 15 e n t s t a t i s t i c a l s i g n i f i c a n c e . The r e a l t e s t o f ^ A l s o s e e : R o b ert M cG innis, "R andom ization and I n f e r e n o e . i n S o c io lo g ic a l R e s e a rc h ." A m erican S o c io lo g ic a l R eview . V o l. 2 2 , No. 5 (O c to b e r, 1 9 5 7 } , Aob-^IH-. llfR o b e rt G. W alls and D avid 1 . W eeks, "A Note on th e V aria n c e o f a P re d ic te d R esponse i n R e g re s s io n ," The A m erican S t a t i s t i c i a n . V o l. 2 3 , N o. 3 (J u n e , 1969) , 21-23• -^Thom as J . Duggan and C h a rle s W. D ean, "Common M is in te r p r e ta tio n s o f S ig n if ic a n c e L e v e ls i n S o c io lo g ic a l J o u r n a ls ." Am erican S o c io l o g i s t . V o l. 3 , No. 1 (F e b ru a ry , 1 9 6 8 ), • k e s ig n i f ic a n c e i s th e c o n t r ib u t io n to th e u n d e rs ta n d in g o f th e phenomenon u n d e r t e s t . One may a c h ie v e s t a t i s t i c a l s ig n i f ic a n c e w ith o u t a c h ie v in g an o b s e rv a b le c l a r i t y o f r e l a t i o n s h i p s . At th e same tim e th e e v a lu a tio n o f th e con t r i b u t i o n o f v a r ia b le s a s th e y a re e n te r e d i n t o th e eq u a t i o n m ust be a s s e s s e d i n a u n ifo rm m an n er, w h atev er th e c r i t e r i o n f o r e n t r y . E m p iric a l a n a l y s i s seem s to in d ic a t e t h a t th e s ta n d a rd e r r o r o f e s tim a te in c r e a s e s aro u n d .0 5 . L a b o v itz p ro p o se s v a r io u s a l t e r n a t i v e s i n ch o o sin g a s ig n if ic a n c e l e v e l f o r u s e i n h y p o th e s is t e s t i n g . I n th e c a se o f e x p lo r a tio n , he s u g g e s ts a .10 o r .20 l e v e l o f s ig n if ic a n c e f o r u s e . Some o f h i s c r i t e r i a f o r c o n s id e r a t i o n when s e t t i n g a l e v e l o f s ig n if ic a n c e a r e p r a c t i c a l i t y , a c tu a l o b se rv e d d i f f e r e n c e s , c o n v e n tio n and e x p e rim e n ta tio n o f p a t h f i n d i n g .1^ A lth o u g h .05 i s an o f te n used" l e v e l i n s o c i a l r e s e a r c h , i t s u s e h e re i s b ased on th e r e d u c tio n o f th e s ta n d a rd e r r o r o f e s tim a te a s v a r i a b l e s a r e added to 17 th e e q u a tio n . S k ip p e r, e t a l . . w ould n o t choose a l e v e l o f s ig n if ic a n c e b e fo re s tu d y b u t would r e p o r t i t and a llo w i ^ S a n f o r d L a b o v itz , " C r i t e r i a f o r S e le o tin g a S ig n if ic a n c e L e v e l: A N ote on th e S a c re d n e ss o f .0 5 ." The A m erican S o c i o l o g i s t . V o l. 3 , No* 3 (A u g u st, 1 9 6 8 ), 220-222 1 < 7 p o r th e c a l c u l a t i o n s e e : J . P . G u ilf o rd , fu n d a m e n ta l S t a t i s t i c s i n P sy ch o lo g y and E d u c a tio n (New Y ork: M cG raw -H ill, M-th e d . , 1 9 6 5 J , P* *+03; and £ • W. S m il l i e , An I n tr o d u c tio n to R e g re ssio n and C o r r e la tio n (T o ro n to : The B yerson t r e s s , I 9 6 0 ) , p p . 62- 6b . h 7 18 th e r e a d e r to a t t a c h an I n t e r p r e t a t i o n to i t * A lthough t h i s m ethod m ight have u t i l i t y i n th e com p ariso n o f popu- l a t i o n e , i t i s n o t u s e f u lv h e r e . The sim p le n o ta tio n o f s ig n if ic a n c e le v e l w ould n o t le a d to c o n s i s t e n t com parisons i n th e p r e s e n t B tudy, a s v a r io u s com ponents and subcompo n e n ts a re e n te r e d s e r i a l l y by th e e x te n t to w hich th e y ac co u n t f o r v a ria n c e i n th e d ep en d en t v a r ia b le * The m ere r e p o r tin g o f s ig n if ic a n c e l e v e l would n o t le n d to th e 19 f a c i l e com parison o f e q u a tio n s . S p e c if ic E q u a tio n s S o lu tio n s w i l l be d e te rm in e d f o r th e g e n e ra l p r e d i c t i o n e q u a tio n : - W f S B **** + « f a\ x r l * t f f where n s a com posite g r i d t r a c t , b a se d on th e 19^0-1960 c o m p a ra b ility g r i d o f Los A n g eles County* W -t - r e g r e s s io n w e ig h t f o r th e s p e c i f i o v a r ia b le Tx * 19^-0 o r 1950 o r i 960 c e n su s and ■ ^ S k ip p er, G u e n th e r, and N a ss , o p . o i t *. p p . 1 6 -1 8 , 1^See a ls o D enton E . M o rriso n , Ramon E . H e n k e l, " S ig n if ic a n c e T e s ts R e c o n s id e re d ," The A m erican S o c io lo g i s t . V o l. *t, No. 2 (M ay, 1969) , 1 3 1 -1 ^ 0 . D avid S o ld , " S t a t i s t i c a l T e s ts o f S u b s ta n tiv e S ig n if ic a n c e ," A m erican S o c i o l o g i s t . V o l. No. 1 (I'e b ru a z y , 1 9 6 9 ), *f2-*fo« Tx-1 a th e p re c e d in g c e n s u s , i . e . , 19^ 0 , 1950. In a d d i t i o n , s o lu tio n s f o r th e d e s c r i p t i v e e q u a tio n s : Cnac = " i* + "* • S°n Tx = W ** ^ T x + Wt' OT*Tx w i l l a ls o he ac co m p lish ed . I n o rd e r to t e s t th e th e o ry o f s t r u c t u r a l d e te rm in is m , we m u st d ev elo p e m p ir ic a lly d e s c r ib a b le term s w hich may he u s e d i n th e p la c e o f th e c o n c e p tu a l o n e s , w here th e c o n c e p ts th e m se lv e s do n o t le a d to m easurem ent and t e s t . O p e ra tio n a l d e f i n it i o n s a re lo w er o r d e r i n t e r p r e t a t i o n s o f h ig h e r o r d e r c o n c e p ts a n d , a s s u c h , m u st r e p r e s e n t them 20 h o th l o g i c a l l y and s e m a n tic a lly . O p e ra tio n a l d e f in i t io n s sh o u ld be more s e m a n tic a lly p r e c is e and a t th e same tim e , 21 he an c h o red f irm ly to o b se rv a b le d a t a . Thus we b e g in o u r d e f i n i t i o n o f com ponents i n o p e r a tio n a l te rm s . Occupancy Type and S t r u c t u r a l D eterm inism I t i s p o s s ib le t h a t th e s t r u c t u r a l d e te rm in a n ts o f ? °B e v e rly Duncan p r e s e n ts a we 1 1 -d ev elo p ed d is c u s s io n o f th e d an g ers to be e n c o u n te re d when g e n e r a l iz a t i o n s ex ceed th e l i m i t a t i o n s o f v a r i a b l e s on w hich th e y w ere b a s e d . T here i s a d i r e c t r e l a t i o n s h i p betw een th e fa c e v a l i d i t y o f o p e r a tio n a l d e f i n i t i o n s and th e a p p l i c a b i l i t y o f r e s u l t s in th e f u r t h e r d ev elo p m en t o f th e th e o ry . In a d d i t i o n , th e com parison o f c r o s s - s e c t i o n a l l y d e riv e d r e s u l t s a s a s u b s t it u t e f o r s in g u l a r l y d e riv e d lo n g itu d in a l stu d y i s te n u o u s a t b e s t . S ee: B e v e rly D uncan, "D evolu t i o n o f an E m p iric a l G e n e r a liz a tio n ,1 1 A m erican S o c io lo g ic a l R eview . V o l. 2 9 , No. 6 (D ecem ber, 1 9 6 ^ 0 , 8 5 5 -8 6 2 . 21 W illi am J . W ilson and R ic h a rd G. Dumont, "R u les o f C orrespondence and S o c io lo g ic a l C o n c e p ts ," S o c io lo g y and S o c ia l R e s e a rc h . V o l. 5 2 , No. 2 ( J a n u a r y , 1 9 6 8 ;, 2 1 7 -2 2 7 . ^9 h o u s in g c o s t d i f f e r among p o t e n t i a l r e n t e r s and o w n ers. F o r in s ta n c e , a ch an g in g p ro x im ity to an u n a c c e p ta b le popu l a t i o n g ro u p m ig h t n o t a f f e c t th e c o s t o f o w n er-o ccu p ied u n i t s to th e same e x te n t a s r e n t a l s . A r a t i o n a l e f o r t h i s p o in t o f view m ig h t be t h a t r e n t e r s a re more e a s i l y m o b ile , a s th e y have l e s s o f an in v e s tm e n t in th e n eig h b o rh o o d and 22 i n th e d w e llin g u n i t i t s e l f . I n o r d e r t o t e s t th e p re s e n c e o f d i f f e r e n t d e te rm in a n ts by occupancy ty p e , p a r a l l e l a n a ly s e s f o r th e r e n t o f r e n te r - o c c u p ie d u n i t s and f o r th e c o s t o f o w n er-o ccu p ied u n i t s w i l l be accom p l i s h e d . These a n a ly s e s s u p p la n t t h a t o f co m p o site c o s t . Com posite c o s t in c lu d e s th e c o s t o f b o th r e n t e r - and ow ner- o c c u p ie d u n i t s w ith in a com posite t r a c t , w e ig h te d by th e p r o p o r tio n o f th e t o t a l num ber o f t r a c t u n i t s r e p r e s e n te d . The R e la tiv e C ost o f H ousing i n a Neighborhood. F o r th e p u rp o se s o f t h i s s tu d y , th e c o s t o f h o u sin g i n a s p e c i f i c a r e a a t a g iv e n tim e Cngjx i s d e fin e d a s th e p e r c e n t i l e ra n k o f d w e llin g u n i t c o s t . S w e llin g u n i t c o s t i s a p e r c e n t i l e ra n k c a lc u la te d f o r e a c h co m p o site t r a o t a r e a , and i t r e f l e c t s b o th th e m edian r e p o r te d o o s t o f o w n er-o c cu p ied u n i t s and th e m edian r e p o r te d r e n t o f r e n te r - o c c u p ie d d w e llin g s a t a g iv e n c e n s u s . The e q u a tio n 22Sees N elson N*. F o o te , e d . , H ousing C hoices and H ousing C o n s tra in ts (New Yorks M cG raw -H ill ,19fc>0;, p p . 2&M--211. 50 u s e d i n th e co m p u tatio n i s : Snmv s COp • P0nm ) + (Hp • EIL )• Tx ( nTx Tx) ( n Tx ^ T x ) * Where Sv, s D w elling u n i t c o s t a r e a n , a t tim e (c e n s u s ) Tx T x. F o r t h i s s tu d y , n = co m p o site g r i d a r e a . Op = The p e rc e n t o f th e t o t a l a r e a s w ith a lo w er n Tx m edian c o s t o f o w n er-o c cu p ied u n i t s th a n a r e a n a t tim e Tx. R p = The p e rc e n t o f th e t o t a l a r e a s w ith a lo w er * tx m edian r e n t o f r e n te r - o c c u p ie d u n i t s th a n a re a n a t tim e Tx. Fq s The p ro p o rtio n o f th e t o t a l o cc u p ied d w e llin g n Tx u n i t s t h a t a r e o w n er-o ccu p ied a t tim e Tx. Pp s The p r o p o rtio n o f th e t o t a l o ccu p ied d w e llin g u n i t s t h a t a r e r e n te r - o c c u p ie d a t tim e Tx. s R e la tiv e c o s t i s tra n s fo rm e d i n to i t s p e r - . c e n t i l e e q u iv a le n t. T h at i s , th e p e r c e n t o f th e t o t a l a r e a h a v in g a lo w e r d w e llin g u n i t c o s t sc o re th a n a r e a n , a t tim e Tx. The d i s t r i b u t i o n o f C tp x i s r e c t i l i n e a r by d e s ig n , w ith mean and m edian o f 5 0 .0 and f i r s t and t h i r d q u a r t i l e s 2 5 .0 and 75*0 r e s p e c t i v e l y . F o r th e stu d y a r e a , th e d i s t r i b u t i o n 23F o r p re v io u s u s e o f t h i s m easure s e e : Jo h n Mark M cQ uiston, Negro R e s id e n tia l In v a s io n i n Los A n g eles County (L os A n g e le s: M cQuiston A s s o c ia te s , 1 9 o $ ), C h a p ters i l l and V II. 51 o f C » jj f o r 19^0 and 1950 a re d e p re sse d a r t i f i c i a l l y by f i r s t t e n , th e n s i x t r a c t s t i e d a t lo w e st c o s t* These t r a c t s w ere u s e d l i t t l e a s a p la c e o f r e s id e n c e u n t i l a f t e r 1950* The c r e a t i o n o f r e l a t i v e d w e llin g u n i t c o s t s c o re s e l im in a te s pro b lem s e n c o u n te re d i n a d ju s tin g te m p o ra lly o r ie n te d v a lu e s f o r c o s t o f l i v i n g d i f f e r e n t i a l s * In a d d i t i o n , th e s c o re s allo w th e co m b in atio n o f th e v a lu e o f o w n er-o c cu p ied and th e r e n t o f r e n te r- o c o u p ie d u n i t s i n t o a summaxy sc o re f o r each m e tro p o lita n su b a re a * R e s id e n tia l S t a b i l i t y A n eig h b o rh o o d t h a t i s a b le to h o ld i t s r e s i d e n t s sh o u ld in c lu d e p r o p o r tio n a te ly more o cc u p ie d d w e llin g u n i t s a t any tim e th a n a neig h b o rh o o d t h a t i s n o t , w ith th e e x c e p tio n o f b ra n d new t r a c t s . The p e r c e n t o f u n i t s occu p ie d a t a p a r t i c u l a r cen su s can n o t m easure s e q u e n tia l moves a s th e y o c c u r, a s th e te rm i s c r o s s - s e c t i o n a l r a t h e r th a n lo n g i t u d i n a l • The p e r c e n t o f th e t o t a l num ber o f d w e llin g u n i t s t h a t a re o ccu p ied may be u se d a s a s u b s t i t u t e f o r a tr u e m easure o f r e l a t i v e s t a b i l i t y , a s n eig h b o rh o o d s w ith a g r e a t e r d eg re e o f p o p u la tio n movement w i l l be c h a r a c te r iz e d by a g r e a t e r p ro p o rtio n o f te m p o ra rily u n o cc u p ied olf u n i t s th a n w i l l n eig h b o rh o o d s w ith l e s s e r movement* In a d d i t i o n , r e s i d e n t i a l s t a b i l i t y i s a summaxy com ponent, a s ^ F o r a d is c u s s io n o f th e im p a c t o f r e s i d e n t i a l m o b ility on v a lu e , s e e : F o o te , o p . c i t .* p p , 2 06-207. 52 i t i s a f f e c t e d by n eig h b o rh o o d stru .o tu .re h i s t o r i c a l l y . R e s id e n tia l s t a b i l i t y i s d e fin e d f o r th e p u rp o se o f t h i s stu d y a s th e p e r c e n t o f o ccu p ied u n i t s a t tim e Tx. a (Oooftpied, DU*a) ix (T o ta l H i’ s - 3 ; As shown i n T able *f.2 a s r e s i d e n t i a l s t a b i l i t y i s o p e r a t io n a lly d e f in e d , Los A ngeles County i s q u ite s t a b l e . Few er th a n 10 p e r c e n t o f t o t a l d w e llin g u n i t s w ere u n o ccu p ie d a t any o f th e th r e e c e n su se s u n d e r s tu d y . A t th e same tim e , th e s ta n d a rd d e v ia tio n , a t n e a r l y 10 p e rc e n t^ i n d i c a t e s t h a t d e s p ite a ten d en cy to co m p lete o ccu p an cy , i t s ran g e i s b ro a d . The ran g e i s e s p e c i a l l y b ro ad when one c o n s id e r s th e f a c t t h a t Los A n g eles h a s e x h ib ite d a v a s t in c r e a s e i n p o p u la tio n a t ea c h s u c c e s s iv e c e n s u s , and a n a s s o c ia te d h o u sin g s h o r ta g e . S t r u c tu r a l O b so lescen ce As n o te d i n p re v io u s c h a p te r s , a d v a n cin g tech n o lo g y m akes d w e llin g u n i t s p re m a tu re ly o b s o le s c e n t. The r e l a t i v e o b so le sc e n c e o f a d w e llin g u n i t i s la r g e ly d e te rm in e d by th e la c k o f m odem co n v e n ie n c es and th o s e a r t i f a c t s a n d /o r d e s ig n com ponents t h a t r e p r e s e n t th e c u r r e n t s t a t e o f th e a r t o f r e s i d e n t i a l a r c h i t e c t u r e . As te c h n o lo g y and d e s ig n have advanoed w ith tim e , an a d e q u a te r e p r e s e n ta ti o n o f s t r u c t u r a l o b so le sc e n c e m ight be one t h a t c o n s id e re d th e 53 TABLE if .2 RESIDENTIAL STABILITY IN LOS ANGELES CO UNTY Census Y ear P e rc e n t o f D w ellin g U n its O ccu p ied , Com posite T ra c ts * A verage S ta n d a rd D e v ia tio n 19^0 9 2 .1 8 .6 1950 9 ^ .3 9 .0 I960 9 2 .3 6 .2 *U. S . C ensus. See T ab le * f .l, p . 3 6 , f o r e x a c t r e f e r e n c e s . 25- age o f h o u sin g i n a g iv e n neighb o rh o o d * A sim ple m easure o f th e num ber o f o ld e r d w e llin g u n i t s i n a n e ig h b o rh o o d , how ev er, would n o t s u f f i c e a s a m easure o f o b so le sc e n c e n o r would th e p e r c e n t o f th e t o t a l u n i t s o ld e r th a n a o e r t a in num ber o f y e a rs* Any m easure u s e d m ust be w eig h ted by th e g e o g ra p h ic s iz e o f th e a re a * The e f f e c t o f w e ig h tin g by geographic, a r e a i s to a d j u s t f o r la r g e a r e a s w hich c o n ta in r e l a t i v e l y few , how ever o ld , d w e llin g u n i t s a t one ce n su s b u t t h a t w i l l be d ev elo p ed a s r e s i d e n t i a l a r e a s by a l a t e r c e n s u s . W eighting by g e o g ra p h ic a r e a r e s u l t s i n a lo w e r sc o re f o r a r e a s o f low d e n s ity o ld e r h o u sin g th a n f o r a re a s o f h ig h d e n s ity o ld e r h o u s in g . SCL * ( Humber o f PU»s Twenty Y ears Old o r O ld e r) ix T o ta l Humber o f A cres )nTx The u se o f tw en ty y e a r s a s th e d e f i n i t i o n o f o ld e r d w e llin g u n i t s i s prom pted by th e a v a i l a b i l i t y o f d a ta from th e I960 c e n s u s . A c a se m ig h t be made t h a t w ith th e advancem ent o f h o u sin g te c h n o lo g y th e age o f h o u sin g becom es more c r i t i c a l . T h is s tu d y w i l l n o t a tte m p t to t e s t t h i s h y p o th e s is ; how ever i f t r u e , i t w i l l se rv e to d e f l a t e *^T his i s n o t to sa y t h a t th e r e s u l t s o f te c h n o l o g i c a l advancem ent have b ee n l i n e a r . C e rta in ly th e te c h n o lo g ic a l d if f e r e n c e s b etw een h o u sin g c o n s tr u c te d i n 1930 and t h a t b u i l t i n 19^-0 a r e fe w e r th a n th o s e w hich m ight be found among h o u ses b u i l t i n 1950 v e r s u s I9 6 0 . Age h e re i s a c o n s e rv a tiv e m easure o f o b s o le s c e n c e . 55 th e e f f e c t o f SO^ a s i t i s u se d to p r e d i c t V n a t ea ch su c c e e d in g c e n s u s . T ab le *t.3 g iv e s th e r e s i d e n t i a l s t r u c t u r a l obso le s c e n c e , Los A ngeles C ounty. The rem oval o f o ld e r u n i t s and th e c o n s tr u c tio n o f new u n i t s on p r e v io u s ly open la n d h a s r e s u l t e d i n l i t t l e change i n th e num ber o f o ld e r u n i t s p e r a c re betw een 1950 and I9 6 0 . However, 21 p e r c e n t o f d w e llin g u n i t s r e p o r te d i n th e i 960 cen su s w ere b u i l t betw een 19^0 and 1950. These u n i t s w i l l be a t l e a s t tw en ty y e a r s o ld by 1970 and w i l l add d r a m a tic a lly to th e a v e ra g e num ber o f o ld e r d w e llin g ' 26 u n i t s p e r a c re a t t h a t c e n s u s . F am ily M a tu rity As r e s i d e n t s o f a n a r e a a g e , t h e i r c h ild r e n m a tu re . As th e c h i ld r e n m a tu re , th e y may e i t h e r rem ain i n th e n eig h b o rh o o d to r a i s e t h e i r own f a m il ie s o r th e y may le a v e . A m easure o f th e e x t e n t t o w hich o ld e r n eig h b o rh o o d s a r e a b le to a t t r a c t y o u n g e r, new er f a m ilie s i s th e e x te n t to w hich young c h ild r e n r e s i d e i n th e n e ig h b o rh o o d . There a re v a r io u s t r a d i t i o n a l l y u se d m easu res o f th e s ta g e o f th e fa m ily l i f e c y c le c h a r a c t e r i s t i c o f an a r e a , many o f w hich a r e b ased on th e num ber o f p e rs o n s u n d e r f iv e y e a rs 2% o r a f u r t h e r d e s c r ip tio n o f s t r u c t u r a l o b s o le s cence a s o p e r a tio n a lly d e f in e d , s e e : M cQ uiston, o p . o i t . . C h a p ters I I I and IX . 56 TABLE b .3 RESIDENTIAL STRUCTURAL OBSOLESCENCE, LOS ANGELES COUNTY Number o f D w ellin g U n its a t L e a s t Twenty Y ears Old P e r A c re , Com posite T ra c ts * . v ' J C ensus Y ear A verage S ta n d a rd D e v ia tio n 19*K) 2 .1 **•3 1950 h .9 5 .2 I9 6 0 5 .0 5 .3 *U. S . Census* See T ab le **.1, p . 3 6 , f o r e x a c t r e f e r e n c e s . 57 o f age e q u a te d to a d e f in e d p o p u la tio n o f women. F o r th e p u rp o se s o f th e d e te rm in a tio n o f th e e x te n t to w hich a p a r t i c u l a r p o p u la tio n i s a b le to r e p la c e i t s e l f , a m easure b ased on fem ale p o p u la tio n i s p a r t i c u l a r l y r e l e v a n t . F o r th e p r e s e n t s tu d y , h o w ev er, th e m easure o f fa m ily m a tu r ity i s u s e d s o le ly to d e te rm in e th e y o u th fu ln e s s o f th e p o p u la t i o n i n te rm s o f th o s e s t r u c t u r a l com ponents t h a t a r e r e l a t e d to c h i ld r e a r i n g . W e a re more i n t e r e s t e d i n c h i l d ren a s a p r o p o r tio n o f th e t o t a l p o p u la tio n th a n a s th e y r e p r e s e n t th e p o t e n t i a l re p la c e m e n t o f t h e i r p a r e n t s . Fam ily m a tu r ity th e n i s d e fin e d a s FMam s ( P o p u la tio n u n d e r F iv e Y ears o f Age x 1 0 0 ) ( T o ta l P o p u la tio n )nipx A summaxy o f th e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f FM i s p r e s e n te d i n T ab le if •1 +* The P ro x im ity o f an U n accep tab le P o p u la tio n Group ~ The d e te r m in a tio n o f a s p e c if i c p o p u la tio n g ro u p to be u s e d a s u n a c c e p ta b le a s n e ig h b o rs f o r th e p u rp o se o f t h i s stu d y i s n o t so c r i t i c a l a s th e q u e s tio n o f th e form th e v a r ia b le t a k e s , once d e f in e d . One m ight d e fin e an u n a c c e p ta b le p o p u la tio n a s one o f g r e a t s o c ia l d is ta n c e from a s many p o p u la tio n g ro u p s a s p o s s ib le w h ile c o n s is tin g o f s u f f i c i e n t s i z e to be o f o o n ce m to th o se g ro u p s . Thus d e f in e d , Negro q u ite a d e q u a te ly r e p r e s e n ts an u n a c c e p ta b le 58 TABLE 1 * .If FAMILY MATURITY, LOS ANGELES COUNTY P ro p o r tio n o f th e P o p u la tio n L ess Than F ive Y ears o f A ge, Com posite T ra c ts * C ensus Y ear Average S ta n d a rd D e v ia tio n 19^0 5.8 2 .3 1950 8 .2 3 .1 * I 960 9 .1 * f.l # U. S . C en su s. See T able * t.l f o r e x a c t r e f e r e n c es . 59 2 7 p o p u la tio n group* L ite r a tu r e a s to th e e f f e c t th e Negro h a s on n eig h b o rh o o d c o m p o sitio n and h o u sin g v a lu e i s ab u n d an t a lth o u g h i n c o n s i s t e n t i n c o n c lu sio n s * IXmcan and Duncan have r e c e n tly shown t h a t w ith r e s p e c t to a c h ie v e m ents by th e m a jo rity p o p u la tio n th e Negro i s a s p e c ia l c a s e : The e x p e rie n c e o f non-N egro m in o r it ie s i n A m erica* a s re v e a le d by th e s e o b s e rv a tio n s on t h e i r e d u c a tio n a l and o c c u p a tio n a l a c h ie v e m e n ts, w ould arg u e a g a in s t th e e x is te n c e o f p e rv a s iv e d is c r im in a tio n on p u re ly e th n ic g ro u n d s .2" A t th e same tim e , th e Duncans found th e Negro la c k in g i n e d u c a tio n a l and o c c u p a tio n a l achievem ent* A lth o u g h an argum ent f o r th e e x is te n c e o f p e rv a s iv e d is c r im in a tio n c a n n o t be made among non-N egro e th n ic g ro u p s , i t i s e v id e n l among N e g ro e s. The Negro i s a s p e c ia l c a se among e th n ic g ro u p s and p a r t i c u l a r l y w e ll s u it e d f o r u se a s o u r o p e ra t i o n a l l y d e fin e d u n a c c e p ta b le p o p u la tio n . He i s d is c r i m i n a te d a g a i n s t , n o t a s an e th n ic g ro u p p e r se b u t a s a N egro. He i s th e m a jo r ity p o p u la tio n ’ s p ro to ty p e o f an u n a c c e p ta b le p o p u la tio n * Once we have d e fin e d th e Negro a s r e p r e s e n ta ti v e o f an u n a c c e p ta b le p o p u la tio n w ith r e s p e c t to th e 27Bmoiy S . B o g ard u s, S o c ia l D ista n c e (Los A n g ele s: A n tio c h P r e s s , 1959)* B e v e rly Duncan and O tis D udley Duncan, "M in o ri t i e s and th e P ro c e s s o f S t r a t i f i c a t i o n , " A m erican S o c io l o g i c a l R eview . V o l. 33» No* 3 (J u n e , 1 9 6 8 7 7 3 5 3 7 60 m a in te n a n c e and th e s t a b i l i t y o f n eig h b o rh o o d h o u sin g c o s t , th e q u e s tio n a s to th e c o n d itio n s u n d e r w hich he a f f e c t s t h a t c o s t m ust be p o s e d . H is e f f e c t may be i n m oving to a n e ig h b o rin g com m unity, o r to an a d ja c e n t n e ig h b o rh o o d . I t h a s b ee n p r e v io u s ly d eterm in ed t h a t h i s p re se n c e i n a n e ig h b o rh o o d p e r se d o es n o t a f f e c t c o s t to a g r e a t e x t e n t , 2^ At th e same tim e , th e p re se n c e o f N egroes i n an a d ja c e n t n eig h b o rh o o d may p o t e n t i a l l y a f f e c t h o u sin g c o s t t o th e e x t e n t t h a t t h e i r p re se n c e r e s t r i o t s th e C a u c a sia n from t h a t r e s i d e n t i a l p o p u la tio n . I n th e o p e r a tio n a l d e f i n i t i o n o f UPn , i t w ould be w ise to in c lu d e v a r io u s m e a su res. One m easure o f UPn m ight be th e N egro p o p u la tio n o r th e p e r c e n t o f th e t o t a l a r e a p o p u la tio n t h a t i t r e p r e s e n ts . A n o th er m easure i s th e p ro x im ity o f a Negro p o p u la tio n to a n eig h b o rh o o d , e i t h e r i n te rm s o f num bers o r a s a p e r c e n t o f th e t o t a l c o n tig u o u s p o p u la tio n . S t i l l a n o th e r m easure m ig h t be th e p r o p o r tio n o f c o n tig u o u s a r e a s t h a t have p r e v io u s ly e x p e rie n c e d Negro r e s i d e n t i a l ch a n g e. I n s te a d o f one o p e r a tio n a l 2^ S e e : L u ig i L a u r e n ti, P ro p e rty V alu es and Race (B e rk e le y : U n iv e r s ity o f C a lif o r n ia P r e s s , I9 6 0 ); E . F re d e r ic k S c h ie tin g e r , "R a c ia l S u c c e ssio n and Changing P ro p e rty V alu es i n R e s id e n tia l C hicago" i n E rn e s t W. B u rg ess and D onald J . Bogue ( e d s . ) , C o n trib u tio n s to U rban S o c io lo g y (C h icag o : U n iv e r s ity o f C hicago P r e s s , l9b*+) , p p . d b -o 9 ; and Jo h n Mark M cQ uiston, "C hanging R e la tiv e H ousing V alu e s i n Negro and C aucasian N eig h b o rh o o d s," a p a p e r p r e s e n te d a t th e 1968 m eetin g s o f th e P a c i f ic S o c io lo g ic a l A s s o c ia tio n , San F ra n c is c o , C a lif o r n i a , 61 ap p ro x im atio n , o f UPn , th e r e a re no l e s s th a n f i v e , e a s i l y c a lc u l a b le from c e n su s d a t a . As UIL i s a s t r u c t u r a l com ** p o n e n t t h a t may n o t be o p e r a tio n a lly d e fin e d w ith a s g r e a t a d e g re e o f c e r t a i n t y a s th e o th e r com ponents, we may d e s i r e to in c lu d e su ch v a r i a b l e s i n i t s d e f i n i t i o n a s a r e c o n c e p tu a lly r e l e v a n t . As th e method o f a n a ly s is in c lu d e s th e e lim in a tio n o f re d u n d a n t com ponents, th e e lim in a tio n o f re d u n d a n t subcom ponent v a r ia b le s may be acco m p lish e d i n a s i m i l a r m anner. I t i s ex p e cte d t h a t th e y w i l l co m p rise a d i f f e r e n t a r e a o f m a th e m a tic a l space th a n th e o th e r com p o n e n ts , y e t a s im ila r a r e a o f m a th e m a tic a l sp a ce to one a n o th e r . H ence, e x c e p t f o r p r e c is io n i n d e f i n i t i o n , th e i n c l u s i o n o f subcom ponent v a r ia b le s i s n o t c r i t i c a l to th e a n a l y s i s . Subcom ponents o f UP a r e : 1 . Number o f N egroes in a r e a ^ ^ . ( N N ^ ^ ) . 2 . The p e r c e n t o f a r e a ^ ^ p o p u la tio n t h a t i s Negro (PNna,x ) . 3 • The p r o p o r tio n o f c o n tig u o u s t r a c t s w ith in w hich a t l e a s t 250 N egroes r e s id e (CNnr Ex)» *f. The p e r c e n t o f th e p o p u la tio n o f th e c o n tig u o u s a r e a t h a t i s Negro ( C P N j^ ). 5* The t o t a l Negro p o p u la tio n i n c o n tig u o u s t r a c t s CCMn i x ) . The com ponent UP may th e n be r e p la c e d by th e s e 62 v a r i a b l e s and t h e i r w e ig h ts . T h e re fo re , W ^ .U P j^ i s r e p la c e d by th e e q u a tio n : < W t . M nQ)x + W t .PHnTx + W f C ^ + W fC P N ^ + W f C N ^ ] w hich may th e n be in s p e c te d f o r red u n d an ce i n th e same m anner a s th e r e s t o f th e e q u a tio n s o lv in g f o r ^n^x » On th e fo llo w in g page i s T able ^ .5 show ing th e p re s e n c e o f an u n a c c e p ta b le p o p u la tio n , co m p o site g r i d , Los A n g eles C ounty. The d i s t r i b u t i o n o f th e Los A n g eles County Negro p o p u la tio n i s such t h a t i t s m ajo r p r o p o r tio n r e s i d e s i n th r e e o r f o u r c l u s t e r s o f t r a c t s . Of th e ^80 a r e a s in c lu d e d i n th e co m p o site a re a g r i d , o n ly f o r t y h av e i n c l u ded a t l e a s t 250 N egroes a t e v e ry c e n su s from 19^0 to I9 6 0 . A t th e I9 6 0 c e n s u s , 306 a r e a s had n e v p r in c lu d e d more th a n 2^9 N e g ro e s, and th e a v e ra g e num ber o f N egroes p e r t r a c t f o r th o s e t r a c t s n e v e r exceeded t h i r t y . S p e c if ic M ethods o f A n a ly s is F o r each Los A ngeles County co m p o site a r e a f o r th e 19*t0, 1950 and i 960 c e n su s o f p o p u la tio n and h o u s in g , d a ta have b een assem b led f o r th e n in e v a r i a b l e s u n d e r s tu d y . The v a r i a b l e s w i l l th e n be in tro d u c e d i n t o th e s te p w is e m u ltip le r e g r e s s io n e q u a tio n w ith C n ^x th e d ep en d en t v a r i a b l e and TX s e t a t 1 9 ^ 0 , 1950 and I9 6 0 . The T f o r th e in d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e s w i l l be s e t a t b o th th e T u s e d 63 TABLE k . 5 THE PRESENCE OF A N UNACCEPTABLE POPULATION, COMPOSITE GRID, LOS ANGELES COUNTY* M easure 19*+0 Census 1950 Census I 960 Census Mean S tan d a rd Dev. Mean S ta n d a rd Dev. Mean S tandard Dev. N N 157 606 ^ + 5 * + 13^1 962 21+3!+ PN 3 .0 1 1 .7 7 .0 1 8 .2 11+.7 2 6 .5 CN 8 .7 1 7 .7 2 3 .5 2 7 .0 3 7 .0 3 5 .3 CPN 2 .5 8.3. 6 .2 l* + .l 1 3 .1 2 1 .9 C N N 1017 2758 3157 6»+66 7097 1230* + # U . S . C ensus, See T able 4 . 1 , p . 3 6 , f o r e x a c t r e f e r e n c e s . — — f o r th e d ep en d en t v a r i a b l e , in one e q u a tio n , and T - l , a d ecade e a r l i e r . Thus we w i l l c o n s tr u c t b o th d e s c r i p t i v e and p r e d ic t i v e m odels o f Cfo. M odels w i l l a ls o be c o n s tru c te d f o r th r e e s e p a r a te s e t s o f C n *s: C n , th e com posite r e l a t i v e c o s t o f d w e llin g u n i t s ; C ,0n , th e c o s t o f ow ner-occupied d w e llin g u n i t s ; and C I^ , th e c o s t o f re n te r-o c o u p ie d u n i t s . I n a d d i t i o n , models w i l l be d ev e lo p ed f o r ea ch q u a r til e o f C, C O and CR to d e te rm in e th e e x te n t to w hich d i f f e r e n t c o s t s t r a t a a r e a f f e c t e d by d i f f e r e n t s t r u c t u r a l co m p o n en ts. E v a lu a tio n o f th e th e o ry o f s t r u c t u r a l d e te rm in ism w i l l be made by th e e x te n t to w hich com ponents in c lu d e d i n th e m u ltip le r e g r e s s io n s o lu tio n s a c c o u n t f o r v a r ia n c e i n th e r e l a t i v e c o s t o f h o u s in g . As s o c i a l th e o ry sh o u ld be e v a lu a te d on th e b a s is o f i t s p r e d ic tiv e p o w er. A th e o ry m u st: . . • g e n e ra te a t l e a s t one t e s t a b l e p r o p o s itio n . . . . I t would a ls o f o rc e s o c i o l o g i s t s to d i s t i n g u is h betw een c o n c e p tu a l a n a ly s is and s u b s ta n tiv e th e o r y , w hich i s to s a y , cease p a s s in g th e fo rm e r o f f a s th e l a t t e r . To have d e s c r ip tiv e m ean in g , th e summed com ponents sh o u ld a c c o u n t f o r more th a n o n e - h a lf o f th e v a r ia n c e o f CTx. To be m e a n in g fu l i n term s o f th e p r e d ic tio n o f f u t u r e r e l a t i v e h o u s in g c o s t , th e com bined com ponents sh o u ld remove a ^ ° J a c k P . G ib b s, "The Issu e i n S o c i o l o g y P a c i f i c S o c io lo g ic a l R eview . V o l. 1 1 , No. 2 ( P a l l , i 9 6 0 ) , 72T 65 s i m i l a r o r g r e a t e r p r o p o rtio n o f v a ria n c e i n Cg^ th a n does C fx -l * Tiie “ o&sure o f v a l i d i t y o f th e in c lu s io n o f com** p o s i t e p a r t s o f th e th e o ry w i l l be w h e th e r o r n o t a l l com p o n e n ts a r e re p r e s e n te d i n th e p r e d ic tiv e m odels* CHAPTER V A SPATIAL ANALYSIS OF RELATIVE RESIDENTIAL COST / As we in te n d to c o n s tr u c t m a th e m a tic a l m odels o f s o c i a l s t r u c t u r a l d e te rm in ism a s i t o o cu rs in Los A n g eles \ - C ounty, and s in c e th e th e o x y s u g g e s ts c o n tin u in g s o c i a l - m o rp h o lo g ic a l m o d if ic a tio n s w ith in th e h o u sin g c o s t s t r u c t u r e , th e d a ta a n a ly s is w i l l b e g in w ith a g ra p h ic d is p la y o f th e r e s i d e n t i a l c o s t s t r u c t u r e a s i t e x i s te d a t th e 19^0, 1950 and i 960 cen su s* The te c h n iq u e o f m apping i s p a r t i c u l a r l y r e l e v a n t a s an in tr o d u c t io n to th e a n a l y t i c a l p o r tio n o f t h i s stu d y * The map p ro v id e s a v i s u a l a id i n th e u n d e r s ta n d in g o f th e e x t e n t t o w hich l e v e l s o f r e l a t i v e h o u sin g c o s t c l u s t e r and change i n c l u s te r s * The map a ls o p ro v id e s a r a t h e r d ra m a tic r e p r e s e n ta ti o n o f te n d e n c ie s to w ard s e r i a l change i n th e r e l a t i v e c o s t o f h o u sin g i n g e o g ra p h ic a r e a s . When r e p r e s e n te d by g r a p h ic s , th e m eaning o f m athe m a tic a l m odels i s g iv e n an a d d i tio n a l dim ension* f i g u r e s 5 .1 th ro u g h 5*9 p ro v id e a te m p o ra l r e c o r d o f th e r e l a t i v e c o s t o f h o u sin g i n Los A ngeles County fo x th e th r e e c e n s u s e s b e g in n in g w ith 19^0 • The maps a r e o rg a n iz e d so t h a t e a c h r e p r e s e n ts a p a r t i c u l a r c e n su s and 66 " - - - 67 h o u sin g ty p e and d is p la y s t r a c t s by q u a r t i l e s o f c o s t . F ig u re b 5*1 th ro u g h 5 .3 p r e s e n t th e d i s t r i b u t i o n s o f com p o s ite v a lu e f o r th e th r e e ce n su s y e a rs ? f ig u r e s 5 A th ro u g h 5*6 d is p la y th e d i s t r i b u t i o n s o f C0X, th e v a lu e o f o w n er-o ccu p ied u n i t s f o r th e same p e rio d ; and f ig u r e s 5 .7 th ro u g h 5*9 i l l u s t r a t e C ^ , th e q u a r t i l e d i s t r i b u t i o n s o f r e n t f o r r e n te r - o c c u p ie d u n i t s . The m ost im p re s s iv e phenomenon d is p la y e d by th e s e n in e f i g u r e s i s th e r e l a t i v e s p a t i a l change i n th e f o u r t h , th e h i g h e s t) q u a r t i l e betw een 19*t0 and I9 6 0 . T ra c ts i n th e f o u r th q u a r t i l e o f c o s t re p r e s e n te d an a lm o st c o n tig u o u s m ass i n 19^0 lo o a te d i n th e n o r th o e n t r a l and w est c e n t r a l a r e a s o f th e C ounty, i r r e s p e c t i v e o f occupancy ty p e . T h at m ass moved i n a w e s te r ly d i r e c t i o n , f i l l i n g i n th e g r e a t e r p a r t o f w e s te rn Los A ngeles County by I9 6 0 . A change i n q u a r t i l e o f c o s t h a s o c c u rre d p r im a r ily i n c o n tig u o u s m a sses. Second i n im p o rta n ce v i s u a l l y and i n term s o f th e th e o ry o f s t r u c t u r a l d ete rm in ism i s th e f a c t t h a t t r a c t s i n th e t h i r d q u a r t i l e a re commonly fo u n d a t th e p e rim e te r o f th e c o n tig u o u s a r e a s o f t r a c t s i n th e f o u r th q u a r t il e o f c o s t . F u rth e rm o re , a lth o u g h t r a c t s i n th e second and f i r s t q u a r t i l e o f c o s t o f te n co m p rise c o n tig u o u s m a sse s, t r a c t s i n th e t h i r d q u a r t i l e do n o t form c o n tig u o u s b o d ie s to th e same e x t e n t . T here i s u s u a l ly a b u f f e r a r e a o f t r a c t s 68 K S B Z f i & S S S J W S m m . Us IfO Js^T » U . v i Sfpl . ■ w..'0 1 -i ' •'T'f'& Jr : J ’ ’ £ . ? ■ ,> ' £ K C f rfffr ' • t * 76 n b etw een th e f i r s t and f o u r th q u a r t i l e s • T h at b u f f e r , a lth o u g h som etim es in c lu d in g t r a c t s i n th e second q u a r t i l e , u s u a lly c o n s i s t s o f t r a c t s i n th e t h i r d q u a r til e o f c o s t , w h e th e r one c o n s id e rs co m p o site c o s t , o w n er-o ccu p ied c o s t , o r r e n te r - o c c u p ie d c o s t . These f in d in g s s u g g e st s o c i a l s t r u c t u r a l o r g a n iz a tio n w ith in th e m e tro p o lis . R e g a rd le s s o f occupancy ty p e , th e g e o g ra p h ic s t r u c t u r e o f c o s t q u a r t i l e s shows movement away from th e c e n t r a l c i t y f o r th e h ig h e s t q u a r t i l e s o f c o s t . At th e same tim e , t r a c t s i n th e lo w e s t q u a r t i l e have m a in ta in e d a c o n tig u o u s m ass i n th e o ld e r , c e n t r a l a r e a , i n th e h a rb o r a r e a to th e - s o u th and i n th e m ountainous a r e a s o f th e n o r t h . As com p a re d w ith c o s t p r o f i l e s o f 19* + 0 , th o s e o f I960 show more s h a rp ly d e f in e d c o n tig u o u s a re a s o f r e l a t i v e h o u sin g c o s t . T h is change i n th e s p a t i a l o r i e n t a t i o n o f t r a c t s i n th e h ig h e s t and lo w e s t q u a r t i l e s o f c o s t and th e g e n e r a l re a lig n m e n t o f q u a r t il e s o f c o s t to c o n tig u o u s m asses o f t r a c t s b o rd e re d by few t r a c t s n o t i n th e n e a r e s t q u a r t i l e i s i n d i c a t i v e o f th e s o c i a l r e d e f i n i t i o n o f th e u t i l i t y o f th e o l d e r , c e n t r a l c i t y and h a rb o r a r e a s a s a p la c e o f r e s i d e n c e . .N o t o n ly h a s th e c e n t r a l c o re been a f f e c t e d , t r a c t s c o n tig u o u s to c o r e t r a c t s w hich were o f h ig h e r c o s t i n 19*+0 h av e been c o n s is te n t l y dow ngraded. T h is same phenom enon h a s a ls o o c c u rre d i n th e Long B each, San P ed ro and W ilm ington a r e a s w h ich b o rd e r th e h a rb o r to th e s o u th . 78 T hese t r a c t s r e p r e s e n t a c o n tig u o u s m ass and w ere o r ig in a lly i s e t t l e d i n a p e rio d s i m i l a r to t h a t o f c e n t r a l Los A n g eles. W ith th e e x o e p tio n o f th e c e n t r a l co re and h a r b o r a r e a s , m ost t r a c t s i n th e lo w e st q u a r t i l e o f c o s t i n 19^0 w ere c h a r a c te r i z e d by r e l a t i v e l y l i t t l e h o u sin g i n 19* + 0 . As th e s e t r a c t s were b u i l t u p i n th e 19^0*s and 1950' s , t h e i r v a lu e a s p la c e s o f r e s id e n c e was g r e a t l y en h a n ce d . By I9 6 0 , th e o n ly s p a r s e ly p o p u la te d a r e a i n th e c o u n ty was to be fo u n d i n th e San G a b rie l and T ohachapi m o u n tain s a t th e n o r t h . The A n telo p e V a lle y , shown a s an i n s e r t i n each o f th e n in e f i g u r e s , was e x p e rie n c in g a s h o r t- l i v e d h o u sin g boom a s th e r e s u l t o f th e lo o a tio n o f la r g e a i r c r a f t assem - 2 b ly and t e s t i n g p la n ts t h e r e . As i n i t i a l r e s i d e n t i a l developm ent w i l l soon have been a c co m p lish e d i n th e Los A ngeles C ounty, th e re sh o u ld be l i t t l e i n th e way o f upw ard r e d e f i n i t i o n o f th e r e l a t i v e c o s t o f t r a c t s due to v a s t ch an g es i n la n d u se a lo n e . The c o m p le tio n o f r e s i d e n t i a l developm ent w i l l a llo w f o r a more a d e q u a te d e f i n i t i o n o f th e r e l a t i v e r e s i d e n t i a l v a lu e o f jgach t r a c t . At th e same tim e , f u r t h e r d e p r e c ia tio n o f — — — —— — — — — — ^ B e v e rly D uncan, G eorges Sabagh and M aurice D. Van A rs d o l, J r . , " P a tte r n s o f C ity G row th," A m erican J o u r n a l o f S o c io lo g y . V o l. LXVII, No. k ( J a n u a ry , 1 9 6 2 ;, 4-20. 2 S in o e i 9 6 0 , much o f th e a irfra m e em ployment h a s c e a s e d i n th e A ntelope V a lle y . T e n ta tiv e p la n s f o r a m a jo r a i r te r m in a l w ith s u p e rs o n ic c a p a b i l i t i e s may enhance th e v a lu e o f t h i s a r e a a s a p la c e o f re s id e n c e o f em ployees o f i n d u s t r i e s s e rv in g a i r t r a n s p o r t a t i o n . . . . _ _ _ _ _ 7 9 t r a c t s n e a r th e u rb a n c o re sh o u ld ta k e p la c e i f th e s p a t i a l o r g a n iz a tio n o f t r a c t s by q u a r t il e o f c o s t c o n tin u e s a s i t h a s s in c e 1 9 ^0 . One w ould e x p e c t th e a r e a betw een c e n t r a l Los A n g eles and th e h a r b o r to d e c re a se i n r e l a t i v e c o s t w h ile an e q u a l num ber o f t r a c t s i n th e w e s te rn , .c o a s t a l a r e a e x p e rie n c e r e l a t i v e p r ic e enhancem ent, 3y 1 9 7 0 , th r e e la r g e m asses o f h ig h e s t p r ic e d h o u sin g sh o u ld em erg e, one enco m p assin g th e e n t i r e w e s te rn segm ent o f th e c o u n ty , a n o th e r a lo n g and to th e n o r th o f th e Verdugo h i l l s in c lu d in g P a sa d e n a , and th e o t h e r a t th e c o u n ty 's e a s te r n b b r d e r . T h is d e s c r ip tiv e segm ent o f th e stu d y h a s u s e d g r a p h ic s t o show d e v e lo p in g s p a t i a l p a t t e r n s i n l e v e l s o f h o u sin g c o s t . I t h a s shown th e d e v e lo p in g a g g re g a tio n o f low c o s t a r e a s i n th e c e n t r a l and o ld e r s e c tio n s o f th e co u n ty w h ile th e c o s t o f h o u sin g in new ly d ev elo p ed a r e a s a p p r e c ia te d g r e a t l y , l a r g e l y b ecau se o f new c o n s tr u c tio n i t s e l f r a t h e r th a n an a p p r e c ia tio n o f u n i t s t h a t e x i s t e d b e fo re d ev e lo p m e n t. I t h a s been n o te d t h a t th e g r e a t e r m ass o f la n d s u it a b le f o r r e s i d e n t i a l u s e h a s been developed and t h a t r e l a t i v e a p p r e c ia t io n due to th e developm ent o f open la n d sh o u ld n o t be a m ajo r f a c t o r i n r e l a t i v e h o u sin g c o s t a p p r e c ia tio n a f t e r th e n e x t d e c a d e . The E f f e c t o f S o c i a l - S t r u c t u r a l Components on B e s id e n tia l R edevelopm ent The e x h a u s tio n o f open la n d f o r r e s i d e n t i a l develops m ent w i l l a c t to s t a b i l i z e change i n r e l a t i v e h o u sin g c o s t , 80 a s w here m a ssiv e in c re m e n ts o f o r i g in a l c o n s tr u c tio n ta k e p la c e t h e r e i s an accom panying a p p r e c ia tio n o f r e l a t i v e r e s i d e n t i a l c o s t a t th e expense o f o t h e r , o ld e r a r e a s . I f new c o n s tr u c tio n i s to rem ain a m ajo r f a c t o r i n c h a n g in g r e l a t i v e c o s t and i f th e su p p ly o f open la n d f o r r e s id e n t i a l u s e h a s been e x h a u s te d , r e s i d e n t i a l developm ent w i l l n e c e s s a r i l y change from o r i g i n a l c o n s tr u c tio n to r e d e v e lo p m e n t. The c h o ic e o f a s i t e f o r o r i g i n a l c o n s tr u c tio n in c lu d e s d i f f e r e n t c o n s id e r a tio n s th a n does th e s e l e c t i o n o f a s i t e f o r re d e v e lo p m e n t. In th e case o f th e l a t t e r , s o c i a l - s t r u c t u r a l d e te r m in is tic com ponents ta k e on m a jo r im p o rta n c e , w h ile t h e i r im p act i s r e l a t i v e l y s l i g h t , how e v e r im p o r ta n t, i n th e c a s e o f th e fo rm e r. The re a s o n f o r t h i s d if f e r e n c e i s a p p a r e n t. As th e m e tro p o lis ex p an d s a t th e p e r im e te r , t r a c t s a t th e p e rim e te r a re th e n e w e s t, h av e b een c o n s tr u c te d f o r a s p e c i f i c socioeconom ic s t r a t a and a r e c h a r a c te r i z e d by young f a m ilie s who a re home o w n ers. These t r a c t s , h av in g o n ly a c o m p a ra tiv e ly r e c e n t r e s i d e n t i a l h i s t o r y , r e f l e c t t h e i r o r i g i n a l l y d e fin e d r e l a t i v e v a lu e t o a g r e a t e r e x t e n t th a n do o ld e r t r a c t s i n th e u rb a n c o r e . Be developm ent o f n eig h b o rh o o d s I n th e c e n t r a l c i t y n e c e s s a r i l y c o n s is ts o f lo c a ti n g t r a c t s w ith p r o f i l e s o f s o c i a l - s t r u c t u r a l o b so le sc e n c e w hich would be en h an ced by r e s i d e n t i a l r e c o n s tr u c tio n a lo n e . I n th e d e te rm in a tio n o f s u it a b le t r a c t s f o r r e d e v e l opm ent, i t sh o u ld be n o te d t h a t th e s o c i a l - s t r u c t u r a l colt- 81 com ponent o f s t r u c t u r a l o b so le sc e n c e may u lti m a t e ly be th e c r i t e r i o n f o r t r a c t r e h a b i l i t a t i o n . S t r u c t u r a l o b s o le s cence i s th e o n ly s o c i a l com ponent w hich may be c o m p le te ly c o n t r o ll e d by th e d e v e lo p e r a s su o h . He may d r a m a tic a lly change th e p a t t e r n o f o b so le sc e n c e i n a n eig h b o rh o o d sim p ly by rem oving s t r u c t u r e s and r e p la c in g them w ith new o n e s . The o th e r s t r u c t u r a l com ponents r e p r e s e n t th e i n h a b i t a n t s o f th e h o u s in g and o f th e su rro u n d in g a r e a . W ith th e ex c ep t i o n o f h o u s in g s i z e , c o s t and s e l l i n g p r a c t i c e s , th e re d e v e lo p e r h a s l i t t l e c o n tr o l o v e r th e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f l a t e r i n h a b i t a n t s and su b se q u e n t d e t e r m in is tic ch an g es i n p r ic e l e v e l s . T ab le 5 .1 shows th e Los A n g eles County I9 6 0 H ousing U n it In v e n to ry by Decade o f C o n s tru c tio n . The a r e a f o r p o t e n t i a l red ev elo p m en t i s g r e a t . As i n o th e r w e s te rn m e tr o p o lis e s , Los A ngeles County h a s e x p e rie n c e d r a p id r e s i d e n t i a l grow th i n th e p a s t few d ec a d e s; a n d , g iv e n th e d e m o litio n o f 1 0 ,0 0 0 d w e llin g u n i t s p e r y e a r^ and assum ing d e s tr u c tio n w i l l ta k e p la c e to th e p r a c t i c a l e x c lu s io n o f h o u sin g l e s s th a n te n y e a r s o f a g e , by 1970 Los A n g eles County w i l l in c lu d e 1 .2 5 m illio n ■ Los A n g eles County R eg io n al P la n n in g Com m ission, ^Q u arterly B u lle t i n . N o . 95 (J a n u a iy 1 , 1967)# A lso s e e : U n iie d S x a te s D epartm ent o f Commerce, B ureau o f th e C e n su s, U . S . C ensus o f H ousing I9 6 0 . V o l. Components o f In v e n - t o r y C hange• f i n a l R e p o rt (W ashington, D. C .: U n ite d S ta te s P r i n t i n g O f f ic e , 1 9 6 2 ), P a r t l a , No. 1 . 82 TABLE, 5 .1 LOS ANGELES COUNTY I9 6 0 HOUSING UNIT INVENTOBY BY LEGALE OP CONSTRUCTION* » Y ear o f C o n s tru c tio n Number o f H ousing U n its P e rc e n t o f In v e n to ry 1950-1959 S l^ ,72^- 3 8 .0 19^0-19^9 ^5 3 ,5 ^ 5 2 1 .1 1930-1939 321,352 1 5 .0 1929 o r e a r l i e r 553,^38 2 5 .9 T o ta l 2,1^-3,059 1 0 0 .0 U n ite d S ta te s D epartm ent o f Commerce, B ureau o f th e C e n su s, U . S . C ensus o f H ousing I9 6 0 (W ashington* U n ite d S t a t e s P r i n t i n g O f f ic e , 19& 3), V o l. I , P a r t 2 . 83 d w e llin g u n i t s a t l e a s t tw enty y e a rs o l d . A p p ro x im ately o n e - h a lf o f th e s e d w e llin g u n i t s a re i n t r a c t s w hich w ould if have b een d e fin e d i n th e r e c e n t p a s t a s s u b u rb a n , y e t w h ich a re now q u ite u r b a n i n c h a r a c te r . The g r e a t e r num ber o f d w e llin g u n i t s i n th e r e c e n tly d ev e lo p ed San F ernando v a l l e y to th e n o rth w e s t w i l l be a t l e a s t tw en ty y e a r s o ld by 1 9 7 0 . I n h i b i t o r s to R e s id e n tia l R edevelopm ent T a b le s 5*2 th ro u g h 5 .^ p r e s e n t a v e ra g e c o s t f o r th e s t r u c t u r a l com ponents o f c o s t by c o s t c o h o r t, c e n su s y e a r and q u a r t i l e o f c o s t . I r r e s p e c tiv e o f c o s t c o h o r t, t r a c t s i n th e h ig h e r q u a r t i l e s o f c o s t a re l e s s s t r u c t u r a l l y obso l e s c e n t , house f a m ilie s c o n s is tin g o f fe w e r c h i ld r e n u n d e r f i v e y e a r s o f a g e , a re a p la c e o f r e s id e n c e f o r fe w e r and a s m a lle r p ro p o rtio n o f N egroes and have fe w e r and a s m a lle r p r o p o r tio n o f N egroes a t t h e i r p e r im e te r s . The p re s e n c e o f o l d e r h o u s in g and y o u n g er f a m ilie s a r e i n h i b i t o r s to h o u s in g red ev e lo p m e n t o n ly in s o f a r a s t h e i r p re s e n c e on th e L , Suburban h e re i s u se d i n th e c o n te x t o f r e s i d e n t i a l co m m u n ities d ev elo p ed d u rin g a p a r t i c u l a r tim e a t th e p e r im e te r b f th e m e tro p o lis and d ep en d en t on i t . At some l a t e r tim e i n th e g ro w th o f th e m e tr o p o lis , th e s e su b u rb an a r e a s may be tra n sfo rm e d to a more, c e n t r a l r o l e m e re ly due t o th e g eo g rap h y and o f m e tro p o lita n e x p a n s io n . The n o tio n o f u rb a n /s u b u rb a n dom inance i s n o t r e l e v a n t h e r e , b u t sim p ly th e f a c t t h a t a t a p a r t i c u l a r d ev e lo p m e n tal s ta g e th e s e co m m u n ities w ere a p a r t o f th e m e tro p o lita n f r i n g e . TABLE 5.2 ~~~ ' AVERAGE VALUES AS BASE YEAR, COMPOSITE COST COHORTS . * r Components 1 - .- fie s i d . ' S t a b i l • S t r u c t . O b so l• X fa m ily M a tu r. - •-> ■ P ro x im ity to an U n a c c e p ta b le P o p u la tio n T ra c t P o p u la tio n C o n tiguous P o p u la tio n # Negrd P e r c e n t v Negro § Negro P e rc e n t Negro P e rc e n t In v ad ed 19^0 C ohorts f i r s t Q u a r tile 9 1 .7 3 .1 7 .2 : ~ 3 2 2 ) 6 .0 1 2039 v 5M h 1 5 .1 Second • • 9 3 .1 2 .3 6 M , 213 , * f.l 1075 2 .7 8 .9 T h ird " ' 9 1 .7 2 .1 5 .5 28 .7 Mk 2 .9 M .5 f o u r th " 9 1 .9 1 .0 h -.l M l .7 392 .6 5 .7 A ll T ra c ts • 9 2 .1 2 .2 5 .8 157 3 .0 1017 2 .5 8 .7 1956 C ohorts • T f i r s t Q u a r tile 9 3 .0 6 .2 9 .1 829 1 3 .1 5153 1 1 .0 3 5 .1 Second H 9 ^ .7 5 .3 8 .7 699 9 .9 **517 9 .3 3 0 .0 T h ird " 9 5 .1 3 .7 8 .1 182 3 M 19^8 3 .1 1 8 .0 f o u r t h * 9 ^ .2 2 .b 6 .9 72 1 .0 t 831 1 .1 9 .9 A ll T ra c ts 9**>3 M .k 8 ,2 7 .0 3157 6 .2 2 3 .5 I960 C ohorts. . : . f i r s t Q u a r tile 89M 7 M 1 0 .8 1589 2 8 .3 10785 2 3 .8 5 0 .0 Second * 9 2 .5 • 6 .0 . 9 .8 1588 22 M 10^63 2 0 .6 5 3 .9 T h ird M 9 3 .5 3 .5 . 8 .9 511 7 .1 523M 6 .1 2 7 .3 f o u r th M 9 3 .8 2 .9 7 .0 182 1 .1 1901 1 .9 1 6 .7 A ll T ra c ts . 9 2 ,3 5 .0 9 A 962 l*f.7 7097 1 3 .1 3 7 .0 TABLE 5.3 AVERAGE VALUES AT BASE YEAR, O W N ER OCCUPIED COST COHORTS Components - R e s id . S t a b i l • S t r u c t . O b so l. Fam ily M a tu r. P ro x im ity to an U n ac cep tab le P o p u la tio n T ra c t P o p u la tio n - - C o n tig u o u s P o p u la tio n ! \- / Negro j P e rc e n t ? Negro / N e g r o P e rc e n t. Negro ' P e rc e n t In v ad ed 19^0 C o h o rt: F i r s t Q u a r tile 9 1 .1 3 .2 . 6 .8 306- 5 .8 1897 5 .0 1 3 .6 Second n 9 2 .7 2 .3 6 A 15^ 3 .0 9*+l 2 .6 8 .5 T h ird M 9 2 .9 1 .6 ? •* **3 .9 b?2 1 .0 F o u rth 1 1 9 2 .0 1 . 1 . h .2 66 1 .2 b 2 7 .7 5 .7 A ll T ra c ts 9 2 .1 2 .1 5 .8 156 3 .0 1017 2 .5 8 .7 1950 C o h o rt: F i r s t Q u a r tile 9 3 .2 6 .3 8 .8 782 12 A 5031 1 0 .8 3*+.l Second 1 1 9 ^ .8 h .b 9 -1 603 8 .2 3952 7 .6 2 6 .3 T h ird " ■95.5 3 .2 8 A 153 2 .5 1589 2 .3 l b .7 F o u rth " 9 ^ .0 2 .9 6 .2 117 2 .2 1133 2 .1 1 3 .8 A ll T r a c ts - 9 ^ .2 if A 8 .2 7 .0 3157 6 .2 2 3 .5 i 960 C o h o rt: F i r s t Q u a r tile 90 A 6 .1 1 1 .2 1760 3 1 .2 12272 2 5 .8 5 3 .7 Second n 9 2 .0 5 .6 1 0 .0 AOO 1 8 .0 9537 1 6 .9 A 8 .6 T h ird M 9 3 .6 3 .9 8 .6 kek 6 .6 *f23*f 6 .2 2 7 .5 F o u rth H 9 3 .3 b .2 6 .5 187 2 .1 2076 2 .9 1 7 .3 A ll T r a c ts 9 2 .3 5 .0 9 ,1 962 l b . 7 7097 1 3 .1 3 7 .0 tX ) V Jl 5 !ABLE 5.if AVERAGE VALUES AS BASE YEAR, RENTER OCCUPXEB COST COHORTS Components R e s id . S t a b i l . S t r u c t . O b so l. fa m ily M atur. P ro x im ity to an U n ac c ep tab le P o p u la tio n T ra c t P o p u la tio n C o n tig u o u s P o p u la tio n . f ' # Negro P e r c e n t Negro ; # Negro v . " - t " i P e rc e n t Negro P e r c e n t in v a d e d 19*fO C o h o rt: f i r s t Q u a r t il e 9 1 .7 2 .7 7 .1 300 5 .7 if.o 1829 if .9 1 3 .6 Second " 93 A" 2 .if 6 .3 210 1181 3 .0 9 .5 T h ird * 9 5 .7 2 .3 P-S 31 .7 if7if 1 .0 5 .5 f o u r th ,f 9 2 .2 1 .0 if .2 ifl .7 333 .5 if .8 A ll T ra c ts ' 9 2 .1 2 .1 / 5 .8 157 3 .0 ; ■ 1017 2 .5 8 .7 1950 C o h o rt: f i r s t Q u a r tile 9 0 .1 5 .9 8 .9 731 1 2 .1 M b i 1 0 .2 3 3 .^ Second n 9 6 .5 6 .1 7 .9 623 1 0 .6 if2M -2 1 0 .0 3 0 .6 T h ird " 9 ^ .0 3 .3 8 .2 351 3 .7 2690 3 .0 1 7 .3 f o u r t h ” 9M-.2 2 .2 7 .8 .6 1185 1 .0 1 0 .5 A ll T r a c ts 9 * .2 if .*f 8 .2 , 7 .0 • 3157 6 .2 2 3 . 5 ; I9 6 0 C o h o rt: f i r s t Q u a r tile 8 9 .2 7 .9 1 0 .3 1201 2 3 .1 8563 . 2 0 .3 if 5 .8 Second N 9 3 .0 5 .5 1 0 .3 17if5 27 .if 11588 2 3 .8 5 6 .1 T h ird " 9 3 . 3 .8 8 .3 711 6 .8 6011 - 6 .1 2 6 .8 f o u r th " 9 3 .8 2 .6 7 .6 I8if 1 .2 2202 2 .0 1 8 .5 A ll T r a c ts 9 2 .3 5*0 9 .1 962 lif .7 7097 1 3 .1 3 7 .0 O ' perimeter of a renewal area detracts from the marketability of that area. As our spatial analysis has shown "buffer1 1 zones around the oontinguous masses of high residential cost) it might be necessary to redevelop an entire area of low cost housing in order for the renewed housing to main tain a high level of cost for any length of time. At the same time) given residential discrimination against those groups considered unacceptable! population might serve to thwart the economic success of such residential redevelop ment. Summary With the increasingly specific definition of the central and older areas of Los Angeles as of low residen tial cost) the redefinition of the suburbs and western sec tions as of high cost) and the exhaustion of open land which is usable for residential purposes) the structural components of housing cost or value are becoming increas ingly more important. Bedevelopment of tracts in the lowest quartile of cost may require simultaneous renewal by con tiguous mass due to economic considerations. At the same time) given residential discrimination by the majority pop ulation) renewal of tracts in the lowest quartiles of cost may not be economically feasible beoause of their proximity to population groups considered unacceptable as neighbors by the majority. Consistent with this analysis) housing 88 re d e v e lo p m e n t may soon t u r n from th e c e n t r a l c i t y to th e s u b u rb s , b o th a s a p r e v e n ta tiv e m e a su re , to i n t e r r u p t a d e v e lo p in g p a t t e r n o f r e l a t i v e d e p r e c ia t io n , and b ec au se o f th e in c r e a s e d m a r k e ta b ility o f su b u rb an h o u sin g p e r m itte d by s t i l l f a v o ra b le s o c i a l - s t r u c t u r a l com ponents. i CHAPTER VI M ORELS OP STRUCTURAL DETERMINISM T a b le s 6 .1 th ro u g h 6 .5 p r e s e n t a summaiy o f r e g r e s s io n m odels d e s c r ib in g o r p r e d ic tin g r e l a t i v e d w e llin g u n i t c o s t f o r ea c h o f th e th r e e c e n s u s e s , 19^ 0 , 1 9 5 0 , and I 9 6 0 . E ach ta b le i s d iv id e d i n t o th r e e s e c t i o n s : co m p o site c o s t , th e c o s t o f o w n er-o ccu p ied u n i t s , and th e c o s t o f r e n t e r - * o c c u p ie d u n i t s . E ach o f th e r e g r e s s io n m odels d e s c rib e d i n t h i s c h a p te r i s r e p r e s e n te d i n a ta b l e o f th e same f o r m at a s t h a t o f t a b l e s 6 .1 to 6 .5 * S t a t i s t i c a l in d e x e s t h a t have been s e le c te d f o r p r e s e n ta tio n in c lu d e th e r e l a t i o n s h ip b etw een each in d e p e n d e n t v a r ia b le and c o s t , th e p a r - t i a l l e d r e l a t i o n s h i p a s o th e r in d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e s a r e e n te r e d i n t o th e r e g r e s s io n m odel, th e seq u en ce o f e n t r y , th e c o n tr ib u t io n to th e re d u c tio n o f v a r ia n c e i n c o s t made by e a c h v a r ia b le e n t e r e d , th e r e g r e s s io n c o e f f i c i e n t and s ta n d a r d e r r o r o f e s tim a te . The in c lu s io n o f t h i s s e r i e s s e rv e s to show th e r e l a t i v e in d ep en d en ce o f th e v a r i a b l e s u s e d , and th e e x te n t to w hich each a i d s i n th e d e s c r ip tio n o r p r e d i c t i o n o f r e l a t i v e h o u sin g c o s t . The r e g r e s s io n c o e f f i c i e n t s a r e n o t d i r e c t l y com p a r a b le from model t o mod^l due to te m p o ra l v a r i a t i o n among 89 ________ ________ _ _ _ _____ 90 the components and the modelling technique. Component means and standard deviations differ by model and by census year. In addition, the modelling technique allows the sequential inclusion of components until all that reduce residual variance in the dependent variables significantly ( .0 5 ) have been added. As different components are inclu ded, and perhaps in different serial order, the regression coefficients will vaxy. For that reason, the regression coefficients are shown however little discussed, in the text. Ths study goal is not the description or prediction of cost per se, but the determination that each component contrib- utes to the models. i The stepwise multiple regression model enters independent variables sequentially according to the ability of each variable to account for a proportion of the vari ance in the dependent variable not already explained. When independent variables exhibit high intercorrelations with one another and at the Same time have a high degree of association with the dependent variable, their sequence of entry into the stepwise regression model may differ from a theoretically true sequence. This variation in sequencing may occur simply because of instability or random variation in the independent variables or the dependent variable. In the discussions ooncemihg sequential entry of components into the regression model, the coefficients of correlation 9 $ among Independent variables and the dependent variable mast be considered. Two of the components used In the models presented here, residential stability and family maturity, have a high degree of association with each other and with cost. This assooiation may occur as young families have a greater propensity to move than do older families. Normally one of the components would be deleted from the analysis in favor of the other, however these two components describe theo retically parts of the structure of housing cost at differ ent points in the temporal sequence, family maturity repre sents family composition at a given point in time, while residential stability represents the cumulative effects of areal structural history for all components. Because of this theoretical difference, both remain in the models despite multicollinearity• In interpreting the regression models the reader must note that this multicollinearity exists among theoretically different components, further, in reviewing the contribution of each component in the step-- wise regression models the reader is reminded that the con tribution of each component in explaining a portion of the variance in cost reflects only that hot previously explained by the other components previously entered. Therefore the contribution of each is sequence relative rather than absolute. 92 The D e s c rip tio n o f C o a t. 19^0 M odels d e s c r ib in g c o s t i n 1 9 ^0 j T ab le 6 * 1 , a re q u i t e s i m i l a r f o r b o th r e n t e r - and o w n er-o ccu p ied u n i t s and f o r t h e i r co m p o site • The v a ria n c e i n o o s t ao o o u n ted f o r ra n g e s betw een 80 and 83 p e rc e n t* Of t h a t v a r i a n c e , r e s i d e n t i a l s t a b i l i t y c o n t r ib u t e s th e m a jo r p r o p o r tio n , betw een 69 and 73 p e r c e n t, w h ile th e th r e e o th e r com ponents sum to betw een 10 and 11 p e rc e n t* Of th e f i v e v a r i a b l e s c h o s e n to r e p r e s e n t th e p ro x im ity to an u n a c c e p ta b le p o p u la tio n , o n ly th e p r o p o r tio n o f c o n tig u o u s t r a c t s p r e v io u s ly in v a d ed added s i g n i f i c a n t l y to th e e q u a tio n ) and i t s in c lu s io n re d u c e d th e v a ria n c e i n o o s t by l e s s th a n one p e rc e n t* Witt th e e x c e p tio n o f r e s i d e n t i a l s t a b i l i t y > a l l v a r i a b l e s r e l a t e n e g a tiv e ly to c o s t* ! P r e d ic tin g C oat i n 1950 M odels p r e d ic tin g c o s t i n 1950, T able 6 * 2 , b e a r a m arked \ s i m i l a r i t y to th o s e d e s c r ib in g th e 19*+0 e x p e rie n c e w ith r e s p e c t to c o r r e l a t i o n s , v a ria n c e a c c o u n tin g , and th e r e l a t i v e c o n tr ib u t io n o f e a c h in d e p en d en t v a r i a b l e i n th e p r e d i c t i o n o f . c o s t . The p r in o ip a l d if f e r e n c e i s t h a t a d i f f e r e n t v a r i a b l e was u se d to d e fin e th e p ro x im ity to a n u n a c c e p ta b le p o p u la tio n * At th e same tim e , th e v a r i a b l e u s e d to d e s c r ib e t h i s com ponent, th e p e r c e n t Negro o f th e c o n tig u o u s p o p u la tio n , o o n tr ib u tr ib u te d s i m il a r l y i n v a r i an ce a o o o u n tin g to t h a t o f th e 19*+0 c o s t d e s c r ip tio n m o d el, TABLE 6.1 THE STRUCTURE OP RELATIVE DWELLING- UNIT COST, 19^-0 Components 19^0 R e sid . S t a b i l . S t r u c t . O b so l. Fam ily M atu r. P ro x im ity to an Unwanted P o p u la tio n T ra c t P o p u la tio n C ontiguous P o p u la tio n # Negro ? ' P e rc e n t Negro # Negro ! . ■ ; P e rc e n t Negro P e r c e n t In v ad ed Com posite C o st: ■ ■ ■ ■ . • - . l k P e a rso n r . .85 - .30 - .7 0 i i P - .1 2 - .1 9 - .2 9 P a r t i a l r 1 5 *85 .39 - M9 NS NS NS - .2 0 P a r t i a l ra n k 1 3 3 2 2 NS : NS NS NS V ar. a e c t ’d . (2 .8 3 1 ) .728 .032 .0 6 5 NS NS NS NS .006 S .E . o f estim ate R e g re ssio n c o e f f • 1 0 .8 2 3 .6 2 2 .k - 7 . 7 NS NS NS NS - .0 0 2 Owner C o s t: P e a rso n r . .83 - .2 6 - .6 9 - .1 3 - .1 3 - .1 9 - . 1 5 - .2 8 P a r t i a l r 1 2 .83 ~ .**2 - ..k 2 NS NS NS NS - .1 ^ P a r t i a l ra n k 1 3 2 NS NS NS NS k V a r. a c c t 'd . (2 .7 9 6 ) .690 ..C k$ .057 NS NS NS NS .OCh S .E . o f estim ate R e g re ssio n c o e f f . 1 0 .8 2 5 .1 - 2 .8 - 7 .k i NS - NS NS NS - .0 0 1 v i o TABLE 6 ,1 — C ontinued Components 194-0 R e s id . S t a b i l . S t r u c t . O b so l. F am ily M atu r. P ro x im ity to an Unwarrte d P o p u la ti on T ra c t P o p u la tio n C o n tiguous P o p u la tio n # Negro P e rc e n t Negro § Negro P e rc e n t Negro P e r c e n t In v ad ed B e n te r C o at: P e a rso n r n P a r t i a l r 1 5 P a r t i a l ran k ^ V ar. a c c t 'd . (E ,8 0 3 ) S .E 1 o f estim ate R e g re ssio n c o e f f . .83 .83 1 .704- 1 0 .5 - .3^ 3 .027 2 5 .0 - 2 .2 - .6 9 - M 2 •066 - 7 .5 o 3 % SoIIh IV) - .1 2 NS NS NS NS. - .1 8 NS NS NS NS -.14- NS ; NS . NS : NS - .2 8 - .1 8 k •006 - .0 0 2 1 _ _ • , (■^Value, Component ° A ll com ponents e n te r e d p re v io u s ly ) S e q u e n c e o f e n tr y in to e q u a tio n where h ig h e s t r i s e n t e r e d , th e n h ig h e s t p a r t i a l . 3when p a r t i a l l e d , t h i s com ponent does n o t red u ce th e r e s i d u a l v a r ia n c e s i g n i f i c a n t l y when t e s t e d a t th e .05 l e v e l . vO -r TABLE 6.2 THE STRUCTURE OP RELATIVE DWELLING UNIT COST, 1950 uoinpon fin x s . x/ t U R esid* S ta b il . S t r u c t . O b so l• pomn 1 v P ro x im ity to an U nw anted P o p u la tio n j; cuiiJL X j M a tu r. T ra c t P o p u la tio n ' C o n tiguous P o p u la tio n I / N e g r o P e r c e n t Negro / N e g r o . P e rc e n t Negro P e rc e n t In v ad ed Com posite C o st: .86 - .7^ - .1 5 P earso n r - .2 3 rc ! 3 - .1 2 - .2 0 - .3 1 P a r t i a l r 2 .86 - .3 1 - .^ 7 NS NS - .1 7 NS P a r t i a l rs n k Var* a c c t 'd . 1 2 3 NS NS NS b NS (Z .8 1 8 ) S*E* o f estim ate R e g re s s io n .73b .026 2 ^ .6 .0 5 2 . NS NS NS ( .006 NS c o e f f . Owner C o st: 9 .9 - 3 .1 - 5 .8 NS NS NS - 5 2 .8 NS P earso n r . .8 2 - .20 - .7 0 - .1 2 - .1 1 00 H • 1 - .1 3 - .2 8 P a r t i a l r 1 _ .8 2 - .3 2 - M NS NS NS - .1 5 • NS P a r t i a l ra n k ^ Var* a c c t'd * 1 2 3 NS NS NS • b NS (E .7 7 1 ) S*E* o f estim ate R e g re ssio n .67*+ .03^ 26.3 .0 5 ^ NS NS NS .006 NS c o e f f . 9 .5 - 3 .3 - .508 NS NS NS - 5 0 A NS V O vn TABLE 6.2— Continue d saa Components 19^0 R e s id . S ta fc il, S t r u c t . O h so l. Fam ily M atur. P ro x im ity t o an Unwanted P o p u la tio n T ra c t P o p u la tio n ... C ontiguous Popii l a t i o n # Negro P e rc e n t Negro . # Negro P e rc e n t Negro P e rc e n t In v ad ed R e n te r C osts P earso n r . .8 5 - .2 2 - .7 6 i . H O J - . 1 2 o C M - . 1 5 - .3 1 P a r t i a l r 1 .8 5 - .3 1 - .3 0 NS NS NS - .1 6 NS P a r t i a l ran k * 1 2 3 NS NS NS b NS V ar. a c c t 'd . (£ .7 7 6 ) .718 .028 o • NS NS NS .006 NS S •£• o f estim ate R e g re ssio n c o e f f . 8 A 2 7 .0 - 2 .8 - 3 .8 NS NS NS -5 b .5 NS 1 ( r V alu e , Component 0 A ll com ponents e n te r e d p r e v io u s ly ) ^Sequence o f e n t r y in to e q u a tio n w here h ig h e s t r i s e n te r e d , th e n h ig h e s t p a r t i a l . ^When p a r t i a l l e d , t h i s com ponent does £ o t red u ce th e r e s i d u a l v a r ia n c e s i g n i f i c a n t l y when t e s t e d a t th e .05 l e v e l . vO O' • TABLE 6 .3 THE STBUCTUHE OP EELATIVE DWELLING UNIT COST, 1950 Components 1950 P ro x im ity to an Unwanted p o p u la tio n B e s id . S t r u c t . Fam ily S ta b il. O b so l. M atu r. T ra c t P o p u la tio n C o ntiguous P o p u la tio n / N e g r o P e rc e n t / N e g r o P e rc e n t P e rc e n t 5 • Negro Negro <In v ad ed |Composite C osts P earso n r - , ' .8 6 - . \ 5 - .7 ^ “ •1? - .1 8 - .2 6 - .2 2 - .^ 3 P a r t i a l r A 0 •86 - .2*f - .3 6 . ns3 NS NS NS - .3 6 . P a r t i a l ra n k ^ . 1 b 3 NS NS ' NS NS 2 V ar. a c c t 'd . ■ (1 .8 1 3 ) S .739 .013 .028 NS NS NS NS .053 S .E . o f e s tim a te 2 5 .0 B e g re ssio n - c o e f f . 9 .5 % - 2 .2 - 3 .0 NS NS NS NS - 2 8 .5 Owner C o s t: P ea rso n r . .82 • * ' • .**1 - .71 - .1 5 - .1 8 - .7 3 - .2 0 - . m P a r t i a l r 1 P - .8 2 - .2 5 - .3 5 NS NS NS NS - .3 1 P a r t i a l r a n k -; 1 b 3 NS NS NS NS 2 •V ar. a c c t 'd . £ • (E .7 6 1 ) .676 .019 .035 NS NS NS NS .031 S .E . o f estim ate 2 7 .0 B e g re ssio n P- c o e f f . M 9 .3 \-2 .b - 3 .2 NS NS NS NS -2*f.3 r .»* ; A O ' t v . • S* •s < L - & TABLE 6.3— Continued £' ' ' . : \ * r ' A Components 1950 . . . \ * . B e s id . S t r u c t . P am ily P ro x im ity to an Unwanted P o p u la tio n • * '' - ' * S t a b i l . O b so l. M atu r. T ra c t P o p u la tio n C o n tig u o u s P o p u la tio n ^ f i i t / Negro .P e r c e n t N earo; # Negro P e r c e n t Necro P e rc e n t In v ad ed B e n te r C o st: P ea rso n r , .85 • .^3 - .76 - .1 9 - .2 9 - .2 2 - .^ 3 P a r t i a l r A 0 .8 5 - - .25 - .19 NS .09 NS - .3 1 P lo rtia l ra n k * 1 3 NS NS 5 NS 2 V ar. a c c t 'd . (2 .7 7 9 ) .723 .016 .008 ' NS NS .002 NS .030 S .E . o f e stim a te B e g re ssio n coeff. 2 6 .8 8 .2 j - 1 .9 - 1 .7 NS NS .0005 NS •38.6 " V v a lu e , Component 0 A ll com ponents e n te r e d p r e v io u s ly ) 2Sequence o f e n tr y i n t o e q u a tio n w here h ig h e s t r i s e n te r e d , th e n h ig h e s t p a r t i a l . i ^When p a r t i a l l e d , t h i s com ponent do es n o t red u ce th e r e s id u a l v a r ia n c e s i g n i f i c a n t l y when t e s t e d a t th e .0 5 l e v e l . TABLE 6.i f SHE STRUCTURE OF RELATIVE DWELLING UNIT COST i 960 Components 1950 R e s id . S t a b i l . S t r u c t . O b so l. Family M atu r. P ro x im ity to an Unwanted P o p u la tio n T rac.t P o p u la tio n i Negro P e rc e n t Negro C ontiguous P o p u la tio n # Negro P e rc e n t Negro P e rc e n t In v ad ed Com posite C o st: P e a rso n r . P a r t i a l r 2 P a r t i a l ra n k Y ar. a c c t 'd . (2 .8 2 3 ) S .E . o f estimate R e g re s s io n c o e f f . Owner C o s t: P e a rso n r n P a r t i a l r x p P a r t i a l ra n k ‘ d Y ar. a c c t 'd . (2 .7 9 0 ) S .E . o f estim ate B e g re ssio n c o e f f . .86 .86 .7^3 2N-.if - .h i - .36 3 .027 8 .if .86 .86 .676 - 2.2 - . M - .1 5 3 .035 26 A 8 .1 I - 1 .3 - .7 9 - .16 h .00? - 1 .3 - .76 - .18 »f .019 - 1 . 5 -.1 NS NS NS NS - . l i f NS NS NS NS -.1 5 NS NS NS NS - .1 5 NS NS NS NS -.2 3 NS NS NS NS -.22 NS NS NS NS -.18 NS NS NS NS -.18 NS NS NS NS - . i f O - .if 3 2 .O if8 - 3 8 .5 - . i f l - > 0 2 .031 — 3 8 .O vfi ..TABLE 6.^— Continued ^ ' ' ' - ■ 1 ■ — — = Components 1950 B e s id . S t a b i l . , v S t r u c t . O b so l• Pam ily M atu r. P ro x im ity to an Unwanted P o p u la tio n T ra c t P o p u la tio n C ontiguous P o p u la tio n # Negro P e rc e n t Negro i Negro i P e rc e n t Negro > P e rc e n t In v ad ed B e n te r C osts P e a rso n r-. .86 - .39 - .80 - .1 5 - .1 6 -.2*f - .1 8 -,*f0 P a r t i a l r p .86 - .39 - .11 NS NS NS NS - .^ 3 P a r t i a l ra n k 1 3 b NS NS NS NS 2 Y a r, a c c t 'd . ( E .8 2 0 .7**3 .032 .002 NS NS NS NS .0*f7 S .E . o f estim ate 2M-.2 / * B e g re ssio n c o e f f . 8 .0 > 2 .3 - .9 NS NS NS NS -3 8 .3 ^C ^V alue , Component 0 A ll com ponents e n te r e d p r e v io u s ly ) ^Sequence o f e n t i y i n to e q u a tio n w here h ig h e s t r i s e n t e r e d , th e n h ig h e s t p a r t i a l , 3 . " When partialled, this component does not reduce the residual variance significantly when tested at the .05 level- H * O O .TABLE 6 .5 .TH E STRUCTURE Off RELATIVE DWELLING UNIT COST, i960 jComponents, i 960 ■ ; . . -Proximity to ah Unwanted Populati on Resid. Stabil• Struct. Obsol. I ffamily Matur. t Tract Population Contiguous Population » / Negro Percent Negro /Negro Percen- Negro Percent Invaded Composite Cost: Pearson r .8 7 - M - .6 8 ‘si - .2 5 ? ' ' ' - .3 1 - .2 8 - .i f 9 Partial r1 0 .87 - .3 3 - .5 3 NS NS - . i f l - .1 1 Partial rank^ 1 3 if NS NS NS 2 5 Yar. acct'd. (2 .8 7 5 ) .762 .022 .Qif9 NS NS NS . C h i .001 S.E. of estimate Regression coeff. 20 1 0 .9 .55= - 2 .7 - 3 .5 NS NS NS -11.0 -1 0 .8 Owner Cost: Pearson r. .89 - .53 - .7 0 . - .18 - .2 3 - .2 8 - .2 7 - .if8 Partial r1 „ .89 - .39 - A 8 NS NS NS NS - .2 7 Partial rank4 1 1 3 2 NS NS NS NS if Var. acct'd. (2 .8 5 3 ) .753 .030 .0 5 7 NS NS NS NS .013 S *E • of estimate Regression coeff. 2 2 .2 10 | - 1 .6 “ 3 .5 NS • NS NS NS -1 2 .2 TABLE 6.5— Continued .Components , I960 : B e s id . S t a b i l . S t r u c t . O b so l• F am ily M atu r. P ro x im ity to an Unwanted P o p u la tio n T ra c t P o p u la tio n C o n tiguous PopuJL ation \ i i. < # Negro i' P e rc e n t ■ Negro # Negro ( ■ P e rc e n t s Negro P e rc e n t < • In v ad ed B e n te r C o st: P e a rso n r., .8 7 - > 5 - .73 **.23 - .2 6 - .3 3 - .2 9 - .5 0 P a r t i a l ;r 0 .87 - .36 - M NS NS NS - .3 9 - .1 0 P a r t i a l ra n k - 1 3 b NS NS NS 2 5 Y ar. a c c t 'd . (2 .8 6 5 ) C M * • .027 .039 NS NS NS : .036 .001 S .E . o f estim ate B e g re s s io n c o e f f . 2 1 1 0 .5 ..2 - 2 .7 - 3 .1 NS NS NS - 1 0 .6 -10.1+ p a r t i a l . ^ ■ (^ a lu e , Component 0 A ll com ponents e n te r e d p r e v io u s ly ) 2Sequence o f e n tr y in to e q u a tio n w here h ig h e s t r i s e n t e r e d , th e n h ig h e s t When p a r t i a l l e d , t h i s com ponent d o es n o t re d u c e th e r e s i d u a l v a r ia n c e s i g n i f i c a n t l y when t e s t e d a t th e .0 5 l e v e l . h * O IO 103 l e s s th a n one p e r c e n t. The D e s c rip tio n o f C o s t. 1950 In d e s c r ib in g r e l a t i v e d w e llin g u n i t c o s t i n 1 9 5 0 , T a b le 6 .3 , th e p ro x im ity to an u n a c c e p ta b le p o p u la tio n p la y e d a g r e a t e r r o le th a n i t had i n e i t h e r d e s c r ib in g th e 19^0 e x p e rie n c e o r i n p r e d ic tin g r e l a t i v e c o s t i n 1 9 5 0 . C o n tig u ity to t r a c t s p r e v io u s ly in v ad ed ac co u n te d f o r 3 p e r c e n t o f th e v a ria n c e a n d , when p a r t i a l l e d , ra n k e d seco n d i n im p o rta n c e to r e s i d e n t i a l s t a b i l i t y . H e r e to f o r e , th e v a r i a b l e r e p r e s e n tin g th e p ro x im ity to an u n a c c e p ta b le pop u l a t i o n was added l a s t , f o u r t h , and c o n tr ib u te d l e s s th a n one p e r c e n t o f th e f i n a l v a r ia n c e . The t o t a l v a r ia n c e a c c o u n te d f o r , betw een 78 and 82 p e r c e n t, was s im i l a r to t h a t o f th e 1950 c o s t p r e d ic tio n m o d els. As th e p ro x im ity to an u n a c c e p ta b le p o p u la tio n in c r e a s e d i n i t s r e l a t i v e c o n tr ib u tio n to ea ch o f th e equa~ t i o n s , b o th s t r u c t u r a l o b so le sc e n c e and fa m ily m a tu r ity e x p e rie n c e d a r e d u c tio n i n im p o rta n c e . The r o le o f fa m ily m a tu r ity d e c re a s e d g r e a t l y i n th e c a se o f th e m odels o f r e n t e r c o s t , from 6 .6 p e r c e n t o f th e v a ria n c e a c c o u n te d f o r i n th e d e s c r ip tio n o f 19*+0 r e n t e r c o s t, t o .08 p e r c e n t i n th e 1950 d e s c r ip tio n m o d el. P r e d ic tin g C ost i n I9 6 0 The r e l a t i v e im p o rta n ce o f th e p ro x im ity o f an u n a c c e p ta b le p o p u la tio n in c re a s e d in th e m odels p r e d i c t i n g lOff o o s t I n I9 6 0 , T able 6 A * The m ost n o ta b le in c re a s e o c o u rre d i n th e p r e d i c t io n o f r e n t e r c o s t , 1 .7 p e r c e n t o v e r t h a t o f th e 1950 c o s t d e s c r ip tio n m o d e l. A t th e same tim e , th e r e l a t i v e im p o rtan ce o f fa m ily m a tu r ity d e c re a se d fur-* t h e r . T h is d e c re a s e i n th e im p o rta n ce o f fa m ily m a tu rity o c c u rre d i n a l l th r e e o f th e m o d e ls. The D e s c rip tio n o f C o s t. I9 6 0 I n d e s c r ib in g d w e llin g u n i t c o s t i n i 9 6 0 , T able 6 . 5j th e r e l a t i v e c o n tr ib u t io n o f e a c h o f th e com ponents was m a in ta in e d . In i 9 6 0 , f o r th e f i r s t tim e , two v a r i a b l e s r e p r e s e n tin g f a c e t s o f th e p ro x im ity o f an u n a c c e p ta b le p o p u la tio n w ere in c lu d e d i n th e m o d e ls. As i n th e s e t o f m odels d e s c rib e d j u s t p r e v io u s ly , th e g r e a t e s t im p act o f p ro x im ity was i n th e c o s t o f re n te r- o c c u p iq d u n i t s . Some 3 .7 p e r c e n t o f th e v a r ia n c e i n r e n t e r c o s t was a t t r i b u t e d to p r o x im ity , w h ile th e same com ponent ac c o u n te d f o r o n ly 1 .3 p e r c e n t o f th e v a r ia n c e i n th e c o s t o f o w ner-occupied u n i t s . - A n aly se s by C o st Q u a r tile The a n a ly s is o f s t r u c t u r e o f r e l a t i v e d w e llin g c o s t by q u a r t i l e i s p r e s e n te d i n T a b le s 6 .6 th ro u g h 6.25* The q u a r t i l e a n a ly s is i s p r e s e n te d to i d e n t i f y p a r t i c u l a r com p o n e n ts whose c o n t r ib u t io n i s a f u n c tio n o f h o u sin g c o s t . P o r th e p u rp o se o f e a se i n d e te rm in in g r e l a t io n s h i p s and TABLE 6.6 THE STBUCTUBE OF JSELATIVE DWELLING UNIT COST, 19*fO TBACTS IN THE FIBST QUABIILE C om ponents, 19^0 S t r u c t . O b so l. F am ily M a tu r. P ro x im ity to an Unwanted P o p u la tio n Be s i d . S t a b i l . T ra c t P o p u la tio n C o n tig u o u s P o p u la tio n f ■' # Negro l 1 P e rc e n t Negro # Negro i P e rc en t i . Negro P e r c e n t , In v ad ed Com posite C o st: P ea rso n r . P a r t i a l r 1 2 .8k - .30 - .8 1 - .3 k - .3 2 - .^ 2 - .k6 .tik NS3 NS NS NS NS NS NS P a r t i a l ra n k ■ 1 NS NS NS NS NS NS NS V a r. a c c t 'd . (2 .7 0 8 ) .708 NS NS NS NS NS NS NS S •£ • o f estim ate B e g re ssio n c o e f f . I 1 .3 K 5 NS NS NS NS NS NS NS Owner C o st: P ea rso n r . .7 7 - .17 - .7 6 - .3 2 - .3 2 ~ .k 2 - .3 9 - . k l P a r t i a l r 1 .7 7 - .26 NS NS NS ■ NS .18 - .2 1 P a r t i a l ra n k * 1 2 NS NS NS NS 3 If V a r. a c c t 'd . (2.6>f2) .586 .028 NS NS NS NS .012 .016 S .E . o f estim ate B e g re ssio n c o e f f . ~ 1 NS NS NS NS 3 1 .7 -1 2 .8 TABLE 6.6— Contimed Com ponents, 19**0 F am ily M atu r. P ro x im ity to an Unwanted P o p u la tio n B e s id . S t a b i l. S t r u c t . O b so l• T ra c t P o p u la tio n C o n tig u o u s P o p u la tio n r 1 i t f i # Negro P e rc e n t Negro i Negro P e rc e n t Negro P e rc e n t In v ad ed B e n te r C o sts P ea rso n r T P a r t i a l r 2 .79 o\ C M . 1 - .7 7 - .3 2 - .3 1 0 • 1 - .3 8 - . ^ 2 .79 ' M S M S M S NS NS NS NS P a r t i a l ra n k 1 M S M S M S NS NS NS NS V a r. a c c t ’d . (Z .7 0 8 ) .708 M S M S NS NS MS M S M S S .E . o f estimate B e g re ssio n c o e f f . 8 1 .2 .5 M S . M S M S NS NS NS NS 1(xValue, Component ° All components entered previously) ^Sequence of entiy into equation where highest r is entered, then highest partial. q -'When parti ailed, this component does not reduce the residual variance significantly when tested at the .05 level. H TABLE 6.7 THE STRUCTURE OP RELATIVE DWELLING UNIT COST, 1940 TRACTS IN THE SECOND QUART HE Components, 19^0 Resid. Stabil. Struct. Obsol• Family Matur. Proximity to an Unwanted Population Tract Population Contiguous Population / Negro Percent Negro /Negro Percent Negro Percent Invaded Composite Cost: - .2 5 { 1 r - .2 4 Pearson r . . Partial r1 .98 "■8 - .93 - .2 5 - .2 8 - .4 1 .98 - .39 NS NS NS • NS Partial rank2 1 NS 2 NS NS NS 3 NS Var. acct'd. (2 .9 6 9 ) .961 NS .006 NS NS NS .002 NS S.E. of estimate Regression coeff. 6 5 .5 ' .9 NS - 2 .0 NS NS NS - 1 7 .0 NS Dwner Cost: Pearson r_ .98 - .6 3 - .94 - .2 8 - .2 7 - .3 6 - .3 1 - .4 3 Partial r1 0 •98 NS NS NS NS NS NS NS Partial rank 1 NS NS NS NS NS NS NS Var* aect'd. (M |952) .952 NS NS NS NS NS NS NS. S.E. of estimate Regression coeff. 8 .6 4 .1 1 NS NS NS NS NS • ■ - NS • > NS TABLE 6 .7 — C ontinue d - Com ponents, 19^-0 R e s id . S t a b i l . S t r u c t . O b so l. i Fam ily M atu r. P ro x im ity to an Unwanted P o p u la tio n T ra c t P o p u la tio n C o n tig u o u s P o p u la tio n # Negro P e r c e n t Negro / N e g r o P e rc e n t ; Negro P e rc e n t In v ad ed R e n te r C osts P earso n r P a r t i a l r 1 0 P a r t i a l ra n k ^ tTar. a c c t 'd . (2 .9 7 ^ ) S .E . o f estimate R e g re ssio n c o e f f . .9 8 .98 1 .967 5.V 6 - .6 3 NS - NS NS NS - .93 - . . k o 2 .0 0 5 - 1 .7 - .2 k NS NS NS NS - .2 k NS NS NS NS - .2 9 ‘ NS NS NS NS - .2 5 NS NS NS NS - .k 2 - .2k 3 .002 - 8 .2 1 ( r 7 a lu e , Component 0 A ll com ponents e n te r e d p r e v io u s ly ) ^Sequence o f e n tx y in to e q u a tio n w here h ig h e s t r i s e n te r e d , th e n h ig h e s t p a r t i a l . ^Wben p a r t i a l l e d , t h i s com ponent does n o t re d u c e th e r e s i d u a l v a r ia n c e s i g n i f i c a n t l y when t e s t e d a t th e .0 5 l e v e l . i-1 o 00 TABLE 6.8 THE STRUCTURE OP RELATIVE DWELLING UNIT COST, 19^-0 TRACTS IN THE THIRD QUART ILE C om ponents, 1<A0 - R e s id . S ta f c il. S t r u c t . O b so l• Fam ily . M a tu r. p ro x im ity to an Unwamted P o p u la tio n T ra c t P o p u la tio n C o n tig u o u s P o p u la tio n # Negro P e rc e n t Negro # Negro P e rc e n t Negro P e r c e n t In v ad ed Com posite C osts -.2 5 i . - r . o P e arso n r.. .99 -.5 7 - .9 ^ -.1 9 - A l -.3 2 P a r t i a l r 1 0 .99 ns3 .30 NS NS NS NS NS P a r tiilc w u a k 2 1 NS 2 NS NS NS NS NS Y * r. a c c t* d . (E.976) .97N- NS , .002 NS NS NS NS NS S .E . o f estim ate R e g re s s io n c o e f f . 9 .9 NS 1.5 NS NS NS NS NS Owner C o s t: P e a rso n r .99 -.61 - .9 ^ - . A -.2 0 -A 3 -.3 1 -A 3 P a r t i a l r .99 NS NS NS NS NS -.23 NS P a r t i a l ra n k 2 1 NS NS NS NS NS 2 NS V ar. a c c t 'd . (Z .9 8 1 ) .980 NS NS NS NS NS .001 NS S .E . o f estim ate R e g re ssio n c o e f f . 8 6 .8 .7 NS NS NS NS NS -75.9 NS i- c M TABLE 6 .8 — C on tin u ed Components 9 19^0 R e s id . S ta fc il. S t r u c t . O b so l. K F am ily M atu r. i i P ro x im ity to a n Unwanted P o p u la tio n T ra c t P o p u la tio n C o n tig u o u s P o p u la tio n / N e g r o i P e rc e n t Negro # Negro P e rc e n t Negro P e rc e n t In v ad ed f e n te r C o st: P earso n r-, P a r t i a l r 1 P a r t i a l ra n k 2 V a r. a c c t ’d . (2 .9 7 * 0 S .E . o f estim ate R e g re ssio n c o e f f . .99 .99 1 .971 1 5 .8 - .6 0 u s US' NS ).*+ NS - .9 ^ .31 2 .003 1 .7 - .2 7 NS J© NS NS - .2 1 NS NS NS NS - M NS NS NS NS -.3*+ NS NS ' NS NS - , ¥ f NS NS NS ; NS ^ ( r Y alu e> Component 0 A ll.c o m p o n en ts e n te r e d p r e v io u s ly ) * ^Sequence o f e n tr y in to e q u a tio n w here h ig h e s t r i s e n te r e d ) th e n h ig h e s t p a r t i a l . 3When partialled) this component does not reduce the residual variance significantly when tested at the .05 level. -TABLE 6.9 JUHE STRUCTURE OF RELATIVE DWELLING UNIT COST, 19^0 TRACTS IN THE FOUBIH QUART ILE -Components, 19^0 Resid. Stabil. Struct. Obsol. Family Matur. Troximity to an Unwanted Population Trac t Population Contiguous Population i ■ . i /Negro Percent Negro f Negro, Percent Negro Percent Invaded Composite Cost: Pearson r . . Partial r1 0 *99 . - »5b - .92 -A 5 . -.6 V - .b b -A 8 *99 - .20 - .3 b . #23 .33 NS NS Partial rank^ 1 5 3 b NS 2 NS NS Var. acct*d. (2*993) *989 r .001 .001 .001 NS * .001 NS NS S •£ • of estimate Regression coeff. a 10.5 ^.o ■-Ii3 -2 .6 .02 NS .005 NS NS Owner Cost: Pearson r *99 - M - .92 -.28 -.2 8 -A3. - .k b -.5 0 Partial r1 „ *99 - .25 - .32 NS NS .36 NS NS Partial rank* , 1 b 2 NS NS 3 NS NS Var. acct'd. (2.992) *989 .001 .001 NS NS .001 NS NS S.E. of estimate Regression coeff. 1 10.6 .8 -1& -2 .6 NS NS .005 NS NS H l - » TABLE 6 .9 — C on tin u ed Com ponents, 1940 .P ro x im ity to an Unwanted P o p u la tio n R e s id . S tafcil. S t r u c t . O b so l• F am ily M atu r. T ra c t P o p u la tio n C o n tiguous P o p u la tio n # Negro P e r c e n t # Negro P e rc e n t P e rc e n t V ? Negro ! Negro ?In v ad ed R e n te r C o st: P e a rso n r_ .9 9 - .5 5 - .91 - .4 5 - .4 2 - .71. - .5 1 - .4 5 P a r t i a l r 1 P .99 - .22 - .38 NS NS .40 - .1 8 NS P a r t i a l ran k .1 4 3 NS NS 2 5 NS V ar. a c c t* d . - . • (2 .9 9 5 ) .990 #001 .001 NS NS .002 .001 NS S .E . o f estim ate 7 .4 R e g re ssio n c o e f f . 1 0 .4 - 1 .3 - 2 .6 NS NS .02 -3 4 .4 NS ^ ^ V a lu e , Component ° A ll com ponents e n te r e d p r e v io u s ly ) ■ ^Sequence o f e n tr y in to e q u a tio n w here h ig h e s t r i s e n te r e d , th e n h ig h e s t p a r t i a l . ^When p a r t i a l l e d , t h i s com ponent does n o t re d u c e th e r e s id u a l v a r ia n c e s i g n i f i c a n t l y when t e s t e d a t th e .Op l e v e l . v . . H IV) TABLE 6.10 THE STRUCTURE OP RELATIVE DWELLING- UNIT COST, 1950 TRACTS IN THE FIRST QUART ILE ^Components, 19^0 R e s id . S t a b i l . S t r u c t . O bsol. F am ily M atu r. P ro x im ity to an ^want&dS>P6jn2 ^ T ra c t P o p u la tio n ■ C o n tig u o u s P o p u la tio n / i ? r i ( i # Negro P e rc e n t Negro , J # Negro P e rc e n t Negro Percent Invaded Com posite C o s t: P e arso n r_ .73 - .1 2 NS§ - .2 1 i - .1 9 - . 3 8 - .2 5 - . 3 5 P a r t i a l r 1 p .73 - .2 7 NS • - .1 1 NS NS NS P a r t i a l ran k * 1 2 NS NS NS NS .NS NS V ar. a e c t 'd . ( S . 567) .533 .031 * NS NS NS NS NS NS S .E • o f e s tim a te R e g re ssio n c o e f f . I 2 .6 9 .3 - . 8 • NS . NS NS NS NS NS Owner C osts P ea rso n r .6 7 - .0 8 - .6 9 - .1 9 -418 - .2 5 - .2 2 - . 3 0 P a r t i a l r 1 0 NS NS .6 9 NS NS NS NS NS P a r t i a l ran k * NS NS 1 NS NS NS NS NS V ar a c c t 'd . (2.1*72) NS NS .**■ 72 NS NS NS NS NS S .E . o f e s tim a te R e g re s s io n c o e f f . 1 5 .8 NS | NS 2 .0 NS NS NS NS NS < * TABLE 6 .1 0 — C o n tin u ed < . . •---£ ------------------ / ' Com ponents, 19*+0 R e s id . S t a h i l S tr u c t. O h so l• Fam ily M atu r. P ro x im ity to an Unwanted P o p u la tio n T ra c t P o p u la tio n C o n tiguous P o p u la tio n # Negro P e rc e n t Negro # Negro P e rc e n t Negro P e r c e n t In v ad ed R e n te r C o s t: P ea rso n r., P a r t i a l r 1 P a r t i a l ra n k ^ V ar. a c c t 'd . ( S .? f 6 ) S .E . o f estim ate R e g re ssio n c o e f f . .71 .71 1 .510 • 3 .5 - .09 - .2 7 2 .036 f7 .8 - 1 .2 - .7 0 NS NS NS NS - .1 8 NS NS NS NS - .1 6 NS NS NS NS -.2*f NS NS NS . NS - .2 0 NS NS NS NS - .3 1 NS NS NS NS ' I ^(^alue, Component ° All components entered previously) i ^Sequence of entiy into equation where highest r is entered, then highest partial. ^Vlhen partialled, this component does not reduce the residual variance significantly when tested at the .05 level. H H * -F TABLE 6 ,1 1 THE STRUCTURE OF RELATIVE DWELLING UNIT COST, 1950 TRACTS IN THE ^SECOND QUARTILB Com ponents, 19^+0 P ro x im ity to an Unwanted P o p u la tio n R e s i d . . S t a b i l . S t r u c t . O b so l• F am ily M atu r. * ■ T ra c t P o p u la tio n C o ntiguous P o p u la tio n # Negro P e rc e n t , Negro # Negro P e rc e n t Negro P ercent Invaded Com posite C o st: .8 9 - .8 8 - .2 4 - .3 8 P e a rso n r n P a r t i a l r 1 ~ - .3 9 - .2 0 - .2 0 - .2 0 .89 - .3 7 NS3 NS NS NS NS NS P a r t i a l r a n i V a r. a c c t 'd . 1 2 NS NS . NS NS NS NS (2 .8 1 6 ) S .E . o f e s tim a te R e g re ssio n .78 7 18 .029 .9 NS NS NS. NS NS NS c o e f f . Owner C o s t: 4 .8 - 2 .4 NS NS NS NS NS NS P ea rso n r .90 - .4 5 - .8 9 - .2 1 - .1 9 - .2 3 - .2 3 - .3 5 P a r t i a l r 1 _ .9 0 - .3 7 NS NS • NS NS- • NS NS P a r t i a l rank*2 V ar. a c c t 'd . 1 2 NS NS NS NS NS . NS (2 .8 3 0 ) .803 .027 NS NS NS NS NS NS S .E . o f e s tim a te R e g re ssio n 1 6 .4 - - NS NS c o e f f . 4 .4 | - 2 .4 NS NS NS NS TABLE 6,11— Continued .Com ponents, 19^0 Fam ily M atur. P ro x im ity to an Unwanted P o p u la tio n B e s id . S ta b il. S t r u c t . O b so l. T ra c t P o p u la tio n C o n tig u o u s P o p u la tio n / N e g r o i P e rc e n t , Negro /N e g r p P e rc e n t Negro Percentv -In v ad ed B a n te r C o st: P earso n r n .8 7 - .38 - .8 6 - .1 9 - .1 8 - .2 6 _ - .2 1 - .b o P a r t i a l r 1 0 .87 - .37 NS NS NS NS NS NS P a r t i i l ra n k 4 * 1 2 NS NS NS NS NS NS V ar. a c c t 'd . (2 .7 8 7 ) .753 .0 3 b NS NS NS NS NS NS S .E . o f estim ate R e g re ssio n c o e f f . 2 1 .3 h .9 | - 2.7 NS NS NS NS NS NS 1 C r V alu e, Component 0 A ll com ponents e n te r e d p r e v io u s ly ) ^Sequence o f e n tr y i n t o e q u a tio n w here h ig h e s t r i s e n te r e d , th e n h ig h e s t p a r t i a l . 3When partialled, this component does not reduce the residual variance significantly when tested at the .05 level. H o^ 117 d i f f e r e n c e s among th e f o u r q u a r t i l e s o f c o s t ) th e q u a r t i l e m odels a r e p re s e n te d t o g e t h e r , w ith in y e a r b e in g d e s c r ib e d o r p r e d i c t e d . The r u le f o r in c lu s io n i n a p a r t i c u l a r g ro u p by q u a r t i l e was t h a t a t th e b ase y e a r th e t r a c t m ust h av e b een a member o f th e q u a r t i l e u n d e r s tu d y . E ach m odel w ith in q u a r t i l e may be com posed o f a d i f f e r e n t su b p o p u la t i o n o f t r a c t s , a s a t a g iv e n cen su s a t r a c t may be r e p r e s e n te d by r e l a t i v e l y h ig h c o s t o w n er-o ccu p ied u n i t s , lotir c o s t r e n te r- o c c u p ie d u n i t s , and have a co m p o site c o s t i n th e m id d le r a n g e . T h e r e f o re , th e th r e e m odels f o r a p a r t i c u l a r q u a r t i l e f o r a p a r t i c u l a r y e a r a re n o t d i r e c t l y c o m p a ra b le . C om parative a n a ly s e s m ust be made a c ro s s q u a r t i l e w ith in c o m p o site , o w n er, o r r e n t e r m o d els. T a b le s 6 .6 th ro u g h 6 .9 p r e s e n t s t a t i s t i c a l sum m a rie s o f th e q u a r t i l e m odels d e s c r ib in g r e l a t i v e c o s t i n 19*+0. T here a re no c l e a r r e l a ti o n s h i p s among m odels b etw een q u a r t i l e o f co m p o site c o s t and th e c o n t r ib u t io n o f th e co m ponents. R e s id e n tia l s t a b i l i t y e x p la in s a g r e a t e r p r o p o r tio n o f th e v a r ia n c e i n com posite c o s t w ith e ach q u a r t i l e , from f i r s t to f o u r t h . T h is same r e l a t i o n s h i p p e r s i s t s f o r o w n er-o ccu p ied and f o r r e n te r - o c c u p ie d m odels a s w e l l . T r a c ts i n th e f o u r t h q u a r t i l e o f c o s t a r e i n f l u en ced by a g r e a t e r num ber o f s t r u c t u r a l com ponents th a n any o th e r g ro u p , w h ile th o s e i n th e f i r s t q u a r t i l e a r e i n f l u en ced by th e f e w e s t, sim p ly r e s i d e n t i a l s t a b i l i t y . W ith .TABLE 6.12 THE STRUCTURE OR RELATIVE DWELLING UNIT COST,. 1950 TRACTS IN THE THIRD QUARTILE 1 Com ponents, 19^0 R e s id . S t a b i l • S t r u c t . O b so l. I j P am ily M atu r. P ro x im ity to an Unwanted P o p u la tio n T ra c t P o p u la tio n C o n tig u o u s P o p u la tio n # Negro »- P e rc e n t Negro # Negro * > P e rc e n t :« Negro P e r c e n t In v ad ed Com posite C o st: P e a rso n r-. •9}* - .¥ f -.9 3 -.23 -.1 7 -.38 -.28 -.3 9 P a r t i a l r 0 •9^ - .* * 3 N s 3 NS NS NS NS NS P a r t i a l ran k 1 2 NS NS NS NS NS NS V ar. a c c t 'd . (Z.91*0 m 0 0 ¥ .020 NS NS NS NS NS NS S .E . o r estim ate 17.9 R e g re ssio n c o e f f . ■ 6.8 “2.9 NS NS NS NS NS NS Owner C o s t: P earso n r_ .95 - A7 -•93 -.23 -.19 -.*t2 “ •30 -A 2 P a r t i a l r 1 0 •95 - .51 NS NS NS NS NS NS P a r t i a l ran k ^ 1 ' 2 NS NS NS NS NS NS V ar. a c c t 'd . (Z.930) .905 .025 NS NS NS . NS NS NS S .E . o f estim ate 16.3 R e g re ssio n c o e f f . 7.0 1 -**-.8 NS NS NS NS NS NS ■ co TABLE 6.12— Continued Components 9 19*t0 B eside S t a b i l . S tr u c t, O b so l• Family M atu r. P ro x im ity to an Unwanted P o p u la tio n T ra c t P o p u la tio n # Negro P e rc e n t Negro C ontiguous P o p u la tio n # Negro P e rc e n t Negro P e rc e n t In v ad ed Benter Costs Pearson r_ . Partial r1 0 Partial rank Yar. acct’d. (2 .8 7 9 ) S J 2 . o f estim ate B e g re ssio n c o e f f . •92 .9 2 .m - .bl - M 2 2 1 .3 .035 6.0 - 3 .9 *.91 NS NS NS NS -.2*f NS NS NS NS -.1 8 NS NS NS NS -.3 9 NS NS NS NS -.2 7 NS NS NS NS -.**2 NS NS NS NS 1 ( r V aluey Component 0 A ll com ponents e n te r e d p r e v io u s ly ) ^Sequence o f e n t r y i n to e q u a tio n where h ig h e s t r i s e n te r e d , th e n h ig h e s t p a r t i a l . ^When partialled, this component does not reduce the residual variance significantly when tested at the .05 level. 119 JEARLE 6 .1 3 -TH E STRUCTURE OP RELATIVE DWELLING UNIT COST TRACTS IN THE POURIH QUARTILE , 1950 Com ponents, 19^0 R e s id . S t a b i l • S t r u c t . O b so l. P am ily M atur • P ro x im ity to an Unwanted P o p u la tio n » T ra c t P o p u la tio n C ontiguous P o p u la tio n i / N e g r o P e rc e n t Negro # Negro P e rc e n t Negro P e r c e n t In v ad ed Com posite C o st: ■ P e a rso n r-. .99 - A 9 - *92 - A 6 - M - .6 5 -.M f - A 9 P a r t i a l r .99 - .35 C .21 ns3 NS .30 N S NS P a r t i a l ra n k 2 V ar, a c c t* d . 1 2 k NS NS 3 NS NS (2 .9 7 9 ) S .E . o f e s tim a te .973 . .003 .2 .2 .001 N S NS .002 NS . NS R e g re ssio n - ^ .3 CO o o . c o e f f . 1 0 .1 - 2 .0 NS NS N S NS Owner C o st: - A 3 - M P earso n r . .98 - .37 - .91 - .2 6 - .2 6 - .5 0 P a r t i a l r .98 - .52 - .31 N S NS , -23 NS NS P a r t i a l ra n k 2 V ar. a c c t ’d . . 1 2 3 NS NS NS NS (2 .9 7 6 ) S .E . o f e s tim a te .962 1 .010 3 .2 .003 N S NS .001 N S NS R e g re ssio n - 5 .5 .006 . NS c o e f f . 1 0 .9 - 3 .2 NS NS NS H ro o TABLE 6,13— Continued .Components, 19^0 Resid. Stabil• Struct. Obsol• Pamily Matur. P-roximity to an Unwanted Population Tract Population Contiguous Population # Negro t Percent Negro # Negro i . t Percent ' Negro Percent 'Invaded Renter Costs Pearson r. •96 V.50 -.88 - M -.3 8 -.68 -.*f2 Partial r 0 .96 NS NS NS NS NS NS NS Partial rank— 1 NS NS NS NS NS NS NS Var. acct’d. (£•918) .918 NS NS NS NS MS NS NS S.E. of estimate 2 2 .1 Regression coeff. 8.0 - 3 .2 NS NS NS . NS NS NS ^ ■ (^ a lu e Component 0 A ll com ponents e n te r e d p r e v io u s ly ) 2Sequence o f e n t i y in to e q u a tio n w here h ig h e s t r i s e n te r e d , th e n h ig h e s t p a r t i a l . ^When partialled, this component does not reduce the residual variance significantly when tested at the .05 level. TABLE 6.1** THE STRUCTURE OF RELATIVE DWELLING- UNIT COST, 1950 TRACTS IN THE FIRST QUARTILE Com ponents, 1950 P ro x im ity to an Unwanted P o p u la tio n R e s id . S t a b i l , S t r u c t . O bsol. Fam ily M atu r. ■ ! T ra c t P o p u la tio n C ontiguous P o p u la tio n I / Negro P e rc e n t N eg rov # Negro P e rc e n t Negro , P e rc e n t In v ad ed Com posite C o st: . . -.^ 2 "•It* - M P e a rso n r-. .86 - .5 5 - .7 7 -.62. P a r t i a l r 1 .86 ns3 NS NS ' NS NS NS NS . P a r t i a l ran k * 1 NS NS NS NS NS NS NS V ar. a c c t 'd . (2.733) ' .733 NS NS NS NS NS NS NS S .E . o f e s tim a te R e g re s s io n c o e f f . ' 1 .3 7 .3 NS NS . NS NS NS NS NS Owner C o st: P ea rso n r .73 - .3 2 - .7 5 r - .3 5 - .3 7 - .3 9 -z.b l - .5 3 P a r t i a l im NS NS - .7 5 NS ' NS NS NS NS p a r t i a l ran k ^ NS NS 1 NS NS NS NS NS V ar. a c c t* d . (2 .5 5 8 ) NS NS .558 IS NS NS NS NS S .E . o f e s tim a te R e g re ssio n c o e f f . NS 8 .0 NS .9 NS NS NS NS NS .TABLE 6.1^— Continued Com ponents, 1950 fie s id . S t a b i l . S t r u c t . O b so l. F am ily M atu r. p ro x im ity to an Unwanted P o p u la tio n T ra c t P o p u la tio n C ontiguous P o p u la tio n / Negro P e rc e n t Negro / N e g r o P e rc e n t Negro P e r c e n t .Invaded B e n te r C o st: P e a rso n r . P a r t i a l r 1 P a r t i a l ra n k ^ V ar. a c c t 'd . (2.727) S .E . o f estim a te .83 .83 .687 7.5 -.58 N S NS NS .73 .03 .002 c o e f f . 1.8 N S - .6 .22 NS .001 -.5 0 NS NS NS NS -.52 NS NS NS NS -.52 NS NS NS NS -.6 7 NS NS NS NS ■ * -(r V a lu e , Component 0 A ll com ponents e n te r e d p r e v io u s ly ) ^Sequence o f e n tr y in to e q u a tio n w here h ig h e s t r i s e n te r e d , th e n h ig h e s t p a r t i a l . 3When partiailed, this component does not reduce the residual variance significantly when tested at the .05 level. H - * ro U J table 6 .1 5 THE STRUCTURE OP RELATIVE DWELLING UNIT COST TRACTS IN THE SECOND QUARTILE , I 95O - Com ponents, 1950 * P ro x im ity to an Unwanted P o p u la tio n R e s id . S t a b i l . S t r u c t . O b so l. F am ily M atu r. T ra c t P o p u la tio n C ontiguous P o p u la tio n / N e g r o P e rc e n t / N e g r o P e rc e n t Pezcent Negro / 1 Negro t Invaded Com posite C o st: P e a rso n r .98 -•7 1 - . 9 2 - .3 4 - .3 7 - .5 1 - .43 — .6 8 P a r t i a l r 1 .98 ns3 NS NS NS NS - .24 " NS P a r t i a l ra n k 2 1 NS ' NS NS NS NS 2 NS V a r. a c c t 'd . (£ .9 6 1 ) .959 v ' NS NS • NS NS : NS .002 NS S .E . o f e s tim a te 7 .7 • B e g re ssio n c o e f f . 4 .1 NS NS NS NS NS -1 0 .7 NS Owner C o st: P e a rso n r . .98 - .7 5 C M ON . I - .3 0 - .3 7 . - .4 7 - .43 - .6 8 P a r t i a l i t 2 .98 NS NS NS NS NS NS NS P a r t i a l ran k l NS NS NS NS NS NS NS V ar. a c c t 'd . (2 .9 6 2 ) .962 NS NS NS NS NS N S NS S .E . o f e s tim a te 7 .6 B e g re ssio n - c o e f f . 4 .0 1 NS NS NS NS NS NS NS M . ' - £ TABLE 6,15--■Continue d i - • - • _________ . _____ t -Components, 1950 B e s id . S t a b i l • i S t r u c t • O bsol. i P am ily . M atu r. P ro x im ity to an Unwanted P o p u la tio n T ra c t P o p u la tio n C ontiguous P o p u la tio n 4 Negro P e rc e n t Negro V 4 Negro • i P e rc e n t Negro P e r c e n t In v ad ed B e a te rC 6 e * t: - • ■ ■ ■ . P e a rso n r .98 - .7 7 - . 93 - .3 6 - .b o -.M f -.M f - .6 7 P a r t i a l ir- 0 .98 NS .21 NS NS NS NS : ns P a r t i a l ra n k ^ 1 NS 2 NS ; ns NS ; NS • NS T a r . a c c t ’ d . (2 .9 5 8 ) .956 NS .002 NS : ns NS : ns : ns S .E . o f estimate 8 .1 B e g re ssio n c o e f f . 3 .5 NS • 6 NS NS NS NS NS 1 C r V alu e, Component 0 A ll com ponents e n te r e d p r e v io u s ly ) 2 Sequence o f e n t iy i n to e q u a tio n w here h ig h e s t r i s e n te r e d , th e n h ig h e s t p a r t i a l . ^When partialled, this component does not reduce the residual variance . significantly when tested at the .05 level. M to vn TABLE 6.16 .THE STRUCTURE OF HELATIVE DWELLING UNIT COST, 1950 TRACTS-.IN THE THIRD- QUARTILE Com ponents, 1950 P ro x im ity t o an Unwanted P o p u la tio n R e s id . S ta b il • S t r u c t . O b so l• F am ily M atu r. T ra c t P o p u la tio n C o n tig u o u s P o p u la tio n / N e g r o /P e r c e n t ‘ Negro # Negro /P e r c e n t Negro P ercent Invaded Com posite C o st: f P e a rso n r_ .99 - .9 1 - .3 3 - .2 9 - A 8 -•*f2 - .6 3 j P a r t i a l r 1 2 .9 9 ns3 NS NS NS NS NS NS P a r t i a l ra n k 1 NS NS ; ns NS NS NS NS V ar. a c c t 'd . (2 .9 7 8 3 .978 NS NS NS • NS NS ; NS NS S .E . o f e s tim a te D e g re ssio n c o e f f . 6 .6 C ).k NS . NS NS : NS ■ NS NS NS Owner C o st: P e a rso n r-. .99 - .6 8 - .9 2 - .2 7 - ,2 k - . ^ 2 ! - .3 ^ - .5 7 P a r t i a l r 0 .99 .28 .23 NS : NS NS NS NS P a r t i a l ra n k 1 3 2 NS NS . NS NS NS V a r. a c c t 'd . (2 .9 8 3 ) •981 .001 .001 NS ; NS ■ NS NS NS S .E . o f e s tim a te B e g re ssio n c o e f f . 5*3 I .9 1 .1 NS . NS . NS NS NS t- r v O N *EAJBLE 6.16— Contixraed Com ponents, 1950 R e sid . S t a b i l • S t r u c t . O b so l• fa m ily M atu r. P ro x im ity to an Unwanted P o p u la tio n . T ra c t P o p u la tio n C o n tig u o u s P o p u la tio n i # Negro P e rc e n t ■ ( . Megro § Negro P e rc e n t Negro P e rc e n t In v ad ed R e n te r C o st: P e a rso n r . .99 - .69 - .91 — .23 o> C M . 1 -A 3 - A 7 -.6 2 P a r t i a l r 1 2 .99 M S .22 M S M S NS NS NS P a r t i a l ra n k 1 NS 2 M S NS NS NS NS V ar. a c c t 'd . (E .9 8 M .983 M S . 0 0 1 ; M S NS • NS NS NS S .E . o f e s tim a te R e g re ssio n c o e f f . 8, 6.2 . 0 M S .5 NS M S NS NS NS ^ ( ^ a l u e , Component 0 A H com ponents e n te r e d p r e v io u s ly ) ! o ^Sequence o f e n tx y i n t o e q u a tio n where h ig h e s t r i s e n t e r e d , th e n h ig h e s t p a r t i a l . ^When partialled, this component does not reduce the residual variance c significantly when tested at the .05 level. H lO TABLE 6.17 TjJE STRUCTURE OF RELATIVE DWELLING UNIT COST, 1950 TRACTS IN THE FOURTH QUABTILE Com ponents, 1950 R e s id . S t a b i l . t I S t r u c t . O b so l. Fam ily M atu r. .P ro x im ity to an Tfcvanted P o p u la tio n T ra c t P o p u la tio n C o n tig u o u s P o p u la tio n / Negro P e rc e n t Negro. / N e g r o ! ' * ' P e rc e n t Negro P ercent irvaded Com posite C o st: . . . ■ . P e arso n .99 - .6 3 - .9 0 - .2 9 - .2 8 - .5 6 : - .3 7 - .5 9 P a r t i a l r 1 .99 NS3 NS NS NS NS NS NS P a r t i a l ra n k ^ 1 NS NS NS NS NS NS NS V ar. a c c t 'd . (2 .9 8 V ) •981 * NS NS NS NS •NS NS NS S .E . o f e s tim a te 1 1 .3 R e g re s s io n c o e f f . 9 .2 NS NS NS NS - NS NS NS Owner C o st: P e a rso n r . .99 - .7 2 C M o> . 1 - .V ) - .3 2 - .5 6 - M - .6 1 P a r t i a l r 1 0 .99 NS NS NS NS NS s NS NS P a r t i a l ran k * 1 NS NS NS NS NS • NS NS V a r. a c c t 'd . 4 (2 .9 9 0 ) .990 NS NS NS N S > NS NS 'NS S .E . o f e s tim a te 1 R e g re ssio n c o e f f . 9 .2 NS NS NS NS NS ' NS NS M At TABLE 6.17— Continued C om ponents, 1950 B e s id . S t a b i l • S t r u c t . O b so l• F am ily M atu r. .P ro x im ity to an Unwanted P o p u la tio n T ra c t P o p u la tio n C o n tig u o u s P o p u la tio n # Negro i P e rc e n t Negro :# Negro i ' ■ ’ P e rc e n t : Negro P e r c e n t In v ad ed B e n te r C o st: H ‘ a - P e a rso n r . •9f - .5 9 I . V O O - .2 9 - . ^ 2 - .h i -.IfO - .63 P a r t i a l r 1 5 .9$ 1 9 S .23 US NS - .23 NS .18 P a r t i a l ra n k ^ 1 US 2 NS NS if US 3 V ar. a c c t 'd . (£.987 •98*f ns .001 US NS .001 NS .001 S .E . o f estim ate lO .k B e g re ssio n c o e f f . 8 .5 us .6 NS NS -1 ^ 3 .8 NS 3 0 .6 ^ C ^ a l u e , Component 0 A ll com ponents e n te r e d p r e v io u s ly ) 2 ^Sequence o f e n t r y in to e q u a tio n w here h ig h e s t r i s e n t e r e d , th e n h ig h e s t p a r t i a l . 3when partialled, this component does not reduce the residual variance significantly when tested at the .05 level. H th e e x c e p tio n o f r e s i d e n t i a l s t a b i l i t y , a l l o f th e s t r u c t u r a l com ponents a s s o c ia te n e g a tiv e ly w ith h o u sin g c o s t . As n e ig h b o rh o o d s i n th e h ig h e s t q u a r t i l e have th e g r e a t e s t n e g a tiv e p o t e n t i a l , t h e i r c o s t m ig h t be e x p e c te d to e x p e r i ence n e g a tiv e f l u c t u a t i o n to a g r e a t e r e x t e n t th a n n e ig h borhoods o f lo w e r c o s t h o u s in g . In a d d i t i o n , th e h ig h e s t s t a t u s n e ig h b o rh o o d s may e x p e rie n c e a le s s e n in g o f s t a t u s b e c au se o f a ran g e o f p o s s ib le s o c ia l e x p e rie n c e s accom p a n ie d by a f r a g i l e s t a t u s p o s it io n when com pared to n e ig h b o rh o o d s i n th e lo w e s t s t r a t a . T r a c ts a t th e e x trem es o f th e c o s t o f ow ner- o c c u p ie d u n i t s a re a f f e c t e d by th e g r e a t e s t num ber o f s t r u c t u r a l com ponents. S t r u c t u r a l o b so le sc e n c e and th e p ro x im ity to an u n a c c e p ta b le p o p u la tio n a re o f g r e a t e s t im p o rta n c e among t r a c t s o f th e lo w e s t c o s t o f o w n e rsh ip . T h is f in d in g i s n o t s u r p r i s i n g , a s b o th B e tte lh e im and W illiam s fo u n d t h a t members o f g ro u p s i n d isa d v a n ta g e d s t a t u s p o s i t i o n s o r in d iv i d u a ls who a r e d ro p p in g s t a t u s a re more p ro n e to e x p re s s p r e ju d ic e .^ I t i s l o g i c a l l y c o n s i s t e n t t h a t th e e x p r e s s io n in c lu d e c r i t e r i a f o r h o u s in g s e l e c t i o n and th e m a in te n an ce o f re s id e n o e i n a ^ S ee: Bruno B e tte lh e im and M o rris J a n o w itz , S o c ia l Change and P r e ju d ic e (New Y ork: The F ree P r e s s , 1964-3; and R obin W illia m s , " S tra n g e rs N ext Boor (Englewood C l i f f s , New J e r s e y : P r e n t i c e - i l a l l , I n c . , 1964-), p p . 260- 262. TABLE 6 .1 8 THE STHUCIUBE OF HELATIVE DWELLING UNIT COST, i 960 TBACTS IN THE FIBST QUABTILB Composite C o st: P e a rso n r_ P a r t i a l , r 1 0 P a r t i a l ra n k ^ V ar. a c c t 'd . (E .6 3 6 ) SJB. o f e s tim a te B e g re s s io n c o e f f . Owner C o s t: P e arso n P a r t i a l r 1 P P a r t i a l ran k V ar. a c c t 'd . (1.600) S .E . o f e s tim a te B e g re s s io n c o e f f . Com ponents, 1950 B e s id . S t a b i l , • f t .7 ^ S t r u c t . O b so l. - .31 - .3 2 3 .1 ,1 5 .5 .0*3 3 .1 - f t •7^ .537 -.7 - .56 NS NS NS 22.0 3 .7 I NS F am ily M atu r. Nsf' NS NS NS “.63 NS NS NS NS- P ro x im ity t o an Unwanted P o p u la tio n T ra c t P o p u la tio n # Negro -.20 NS NS NS NS -.1 5 NS NS _ tfS NS P e rc e n t Negro -.22 NS NS NS NS - .1 5 NS NS NS NS C o n tig u o u s P o p u la tio n # Negro -.3 ^ NS NS NS NS -.20 NS NS, NS NS P e rc e n t Iter c e n t , Negro “.23 NS NS NS NS -.21 NS NS NS NS - .3 9 - .33 2 .052 -1 8 .9 - .3 7 - .3 7 2 .063 - 2 7 .7 H Ul TABLE 6 ,1 8 — C ontinued - Com ponents, 1950 B e s id . S t a b i l . S t r u c t . O b so l. B am ily M a tu r. P ro x im ity to an Unwanted P o p u la tio n T ra c t P o p u la tio z C o n tig u o u s P o p u la tio n # Negro P e rc e n t . Negro # Negro P e rc e n t ; Negro. p e r c e n t In v ad ed B e n te riC o st* s t t P ea rso n r_ P a r t i a l r 1 _ P a r t i a l ra n k 2 V ar. a c c t 'd . (2 .6 0 2 ) S .E . o f e s tim a te B egression. c o e f f . .69 .69 1 ■.kSO 23 b .5 - .22 - .38 2 .078 .3 - 1 .3 - .6 7 NS- NS NS NS - .1 9 NS . NS NS NS. -*•20 NS NS NS NS - .2 2 NS NS NS NS , - .21 - .21 3 •OMJ k . 9 - . 3 7 * NS NS : NS NS i l ( ^ a l u e , Component 0 A ll com ponents e n te r e d p r e v io u s ly ) 2Sequence o f e n t r y in to e q u a tio n where h ig h e s t r i s e n t e r e d , th e n h ig h e s t p a r t i a l . -W hen p a r t i a l l e d , t h i s com ponent does n o t re d u c e th e r e s i d u a l v a ria n c e ^ s i g n i f i c a n t l y when t e s t e d a t th e .0 5 l e v e l . " ' - ' H • O L ? .■■■■■■. ro SABLE 6 .1 9 THE STRUCTURE OP BELATIVE' DWELLING UNIT COST TRACTS IN THE SECOND QUARTILE < ; . , I9 6 0 • . - ’ Com ponents, 1950 * : ■ ■ ' "\ S t r u c t . O b so l. P ro x im ity to an Unwanted P o p u la tio n B e s id . S t a b i l . P am ily M atu r. T ra c t P o p u la tio n C o n tig u o u s P o p u la tio n # Negro P e rc e n t \ Negro / Negro P ercen t. Negro 1 Ib rc e n t Invaded Com posite C o st: P e arso n r •9.0 - .5 3 .9 2 - .2 5 - .2 6 - .3 7 - .3 0 - .5 2 P a r t i a l r 1 2 •31 * NS3 .9 2 NS NS NS NS - .b 2 P a r t i a l ra n k 2 NS 1 NS NS NS ‘ NS 3 V ar. a c c t 'd . (2 .8 8 7 ) .018 NSl .81*5 NS N S; . - NS NS .02** S .E . o f e s tim a te B e g re ssio n c o e f f . 1! 2 .8 ? . l NS 2 .5 NS NS NS . NS -2*.5 Owner C o st: - .3f* - .5 2 P ea rso n r .9 0 - .5 6 .9 2 - .2 1 - .2 5 - .2 8 P a r t i a l r 1 •36 NS .92 NS NS - .3 1 -.NS NS P a r t i a l ra n k 2 3 NS 1 NS NS 2 NS NS V ar. a c c t 'd . (2 .8 7 8 ) .018 NS .8M* NS NS .016 ’ NS , NS S .E . o f e s tim a te 1 5 .7 .. B e g re ssio n c o e f f . 1 .8 NS 2 .9 NS NS - .000S NS NS * -• C O — -___I __ . S , 1 • , . , ^ . ’ - . . C O TABLE 6 .1 9 -rC o n tin u e d Com ponents, 1950 ^ ; R e s id . S t a b i l . S t r u c t . O b so l• F am ily M atu r. P ro x im ity to an Unwanted P o p u la tio n T ra c t P o p u la tio n ; C o n tiguous P o p u la tio n / Negro P e rc e n t Negro / N e g r o P ercen t Negro P e rc e n t In v ad ed R e n te r C o st: P earso n r . P a r t i a l r 1 0 P a r t i a l ra n k ^ V ar. a c c t 'd . (2 .8 8 2 ) ; S J2 . o f estim ats R e g re ssio n c o e f f • .91 .91 1 .836 1 2 .9 V - .6 5 NS US M S f .7 us ..9 0 . .ifO 3 .023 2 .2 - .2 5 NS NS : NS M S - .2 8 NS NS ns ; NS - .3 1 NS NS NS NS - .3 1 NS : ns : NS M S - .63 - .3 7 2 .023 -2 1 .7 1 ( I y a ln e , Component 0 A ll com ponents e n te r e d p r e v io u s ly ) 2Sequenee o f e n t r y in to e q u a tio n w here h ig h e s t r i s e n te r e d , th e n h ig h e s t p a r t i a l . ^When p a r t i a l l e d , t h i s com ponent does, h o t re d u c e th e r e s i d u a l v a ria n c e s i g n i f i c a n t l y when t e s t e d a t th e .0 5 l e v e l . ' H o j ,-F TABLE 6 .2 0 THE STRUCTURE- OP RELATIVE DWELLING UNIT COST TRACTS IN THE THIRD- QUARTILE , I 960 \ ‘ .Components , 1950 . . . . . . P ro x im ity to an U n w an ted P o p u la tio n Re a i d . S t a b i l . S t r u c t . O b s o l^. F am ily M atu r. T ra c t P o p u latio n C o n tig u o u s P o p u la tio n / Negro P e rc e n t § Negro P e rc e n t P e rc e n t .■ • Negro Negro In v ad ed Com posite C o st: P e a rso n r_ .9 6 - .67 “ •29 - .2 5 - M 2 - .3 6 - .5 8 P a r t i a l r 1 ' .96 i .27 NS3 NS - .2 5 NS NS P a r t i a l ra n k ^ 1 b 2 NS -NS 3 NS NS V ar, a c c t ’d . ( 2 .9MO .916 . 00* * .020 NS NS . 0* NS. : ns S .E . o f e s tim a te V t . 7 • '' R e g re s s io n c o e f f . 2 .7 1 .7 3 .6 NS NS - .001 NS NS Cuner C o s t: P e a rso n r .96 - .6 2 - .93 -.2& - .1 9 - .38 l . ro S O - .5 b P a r t i a l r 1 0 .9 6 .27 M NS NS - .28 NS NS P a r t i a l ra n k 1 3 2 NS NS NS . NS Var* a c c t ’d . ' ; - V V ' (2 .9 ^ 3 ) .913 .005 .020 NS .. NS .005 NS NS S*£. o f e s tim a te . 1 5 .1 ; : " • - R e g re ssio n v c o e f f . 2 .6 ! 1 .9 ■ 3 .7 NS NS .001 NS NS H - * fiJ V Jl TABLE 6 • 20— Continued Com ponents, 1950 > R e s id . S t a b i l . t S t r u c t . O b so l. P ro x im ity to an Unwanted P o p u la tio n F am ily M a tu r. T ra c t P o p u la tio r C o n tiguous Pojp u la tio n # Negro P e rc e n t Negro ft Negro P e rc e n t ; Negro P e rc e n t In v ad ed R e n te r C osts P ea rso n r P a r t i a l r 1 P P a r t i a l ran k * . V ar. a c c t ’d . (S .9 3 0 ) S JS . o f estim ate R e g re ssio n c o e f f . .9 5 .9 5 .1 .910 16 5 .0 - .6 5 NS US NS .7 US - .9 0 .3 2 2 .009 2 .0 ' - .1 7 NS NS NS NS - .2 2 NS : ns NS NS - .3 5 - .37 3 .011 - .001 ^ § 5 oato 00 - . 5 5 NS NS ns NS ! ( r v a l u e , Component 0 A ll com ponents e n te r e d p r e v io u s ly ) ^Sequence o f e n t r y i n t o e q u a tio n where h ig h e s t r i s e n t e r e d , th e n h ig h e s t p a r t i a l . 3When partialled, this component does not reduce the residual variance significantly when tested at the .05 level, - ; H OJ O N TABLE 6.21 THE STBUCTUBE OF BELATIVE DWELLING UNIT COST, i 960 TBACIS IN THE FQUBIH QUAETILE » - — - Com ponents) 1950 B e a id . S t a b i l . S tr u c t. Obsol. F am ily M atu r. P ro x im ity to an Unwanted P o p u la tio n T ra c t P o p u la tio n # Negro P e rc e n t Negro Contiguous Population Negro Percent Negro P ercen t Invaded Composite Cost: : Pearson r. Partial rA 0 Partial rankr Var. acct*d. (2 .9 7 2 ) S .E . o f e s tim a te B e g re ssio n c o e f f . j C osts - P e a rso n r . P a r t i a l r x P a r t i a l rarik^ V ar. a c c t* d . (2 .9 7 8 ) S .E . o f e s tim a te B e g re ssio n c o e f f . *9§ .98 .9 7 1 -. 6; NS: NS NS l* f.2 8.6 .98 .98 NS - .7 0 - .2 7 2 .002 • 976' 1&.8 9 .3 |- 1 . 3 -.9 0 NS NS ' NS NS -.9 2 NS NS NS NS - .2 9 NS NS NS NS -.3 7 NS NS • NS NS -.2 6 NS NS NS NS - .2 9 NS NS NS NS - .5 6 NS NS NS NS -.5 5 NS NS NS NS -.3 7 NS NS NS NS -.3 9 NS NS NS NS - .5 9 .21 2 .o ca . - 21.8 .60 NS NS NS NS m u> ’ s i s TABLE 6 .2 1 — C ontinued Com ponents, 1950 B e s id . S t a b i l . S t r u c t . O b so l. F am ily M atu r. P ro x im ity to an Unwanted P o p u la tio n T ra c t P o p u latio n C o n tig u o u s P o p u la tio n # Negro P e rc e n t Negro # Negro P e rc e n t i Negro P e r c e n t In v ad ed i& n te r C osts P e a rso n r., P a r t i a l r 1 2 P a r t i a l ra n k , V ar. a c c t ’ d . j (£ .9 6 0 ) S .E . o f e s tim a te B e g re ssio n c o e f f . ! .9 8 - .98 1 .960 16 8 .^ - . 5 8 US M S NS •3 NS - .8 8 NS NS NS NS - .2 9 NS NS NS NS - .4 3 NS NS NS NS - .3 8 NS NS NS NS ’ - .3 8 NS : ns NS NS - .6 2 NS NS NS j i NS ■^(^alue, Component 0 All components entered previously) ^Sequence of entxy into equation where highest r is entered, then highest p a r t i a l . ^When partiailed, this component does not reduce the residual variance significantly when tested at the .05 level. " U J 0 0 139 n eig h b o rh o o d i n t r a n s i t i o n t o e i t h e r u n a c c e p ta b le p o p u la - t i o n g ro u p s o r to n o n - s t a t u s f u l d w e llin g o h a r a c t e r i s t i o s . F o r r e n te r- o c c u p ie d u n i t s , t r a c t s o c i a l s t r u c t u r e becomes in c r e a s in g ly oom plex a s r e n t a l c o s t in c re a s e s * At th e lo w e s t q u a r t i l e o f r e n t a l c o s t , r e s i d e n t i a l s t a b i l i t y i s th e s o le com ponent in c lu d e d i n th e m odel* F am ily m a tu r i t y and th e p ro s im ity to an u n a c c e p ta b le p o p u la tio n a r e added to th e model f o r th e second q u a r t i l e r e n t a l c o s t , and s t r u c t u r a l o b so le sc e n c e i s added to th e m odel o f th e f o u r t h q u a r til e * Comparing th e m odels by q u a r t i l e w ith th e g en e r a l m o d e l, T able 6 * 1 , no c l e a r r e l a t i o n s h i p s may be d e s c rib e d by c o s t q u a r t i l e , w h eth er c o m p o s ite , o w n er, o r r e n t e r . A summary o f th e s tr u c t u r e o f d w e llin g u n i t c o s t i n 1950, a s p r e d ic te d by q u a r t i l e o f c o s t i n 19^ 0 , i s p r e s e n te d i n T a b le s 6*10 th ro u g h 6*13* A g r e a t e r p r o p o r tio n o f v a r ia n c e i s ac co u n te d f o r a s th e q u a r t i l e o f c o s t a t th e b ase i n c r e a s e s , i r r e s p e c t i v e o f model* At th e same tim e , th e im p o rta n c e o f r e s i d e n t i a l s t a b i l i t y in c r e a s e s a t e a c h q u a r t i l e l e v e l . The im p o rtan ce o f s t r u c t u r a l o b s o le s c e n c e d e c re a s e s a s th e q u a r t i l e o f c o s t in c r e a s e s ; and w ith th e e x c e p tio n o f th e e x trem es o f th e c o s t o f o w n er-o ccu p ied u n i t s , fa m ily m a tu rity d o es n o t add to th e d e te r m in a tio n o f c o s t* The p ro x im ity o f th e t r a c t to a n u n a c c e p ta b le popu l a t i o n a f f e c t s only th e h ig h e s t q u a r t i l e o f c o s t* TABLE 6.22 THE STRUG TUBE OF RELATIVE DWELLING UNIT COST, i960 TRACTS IN THE FIRST QUARTILE Com ponents, I9 6 0 S t r u c t . O b so l• F am ily M atu r. P ro x im ity to an Unwanted P o p u la tio n R e s id . S t a b i l . T ra c t' Po;p u la tio n C o n tig u o u s P o p u la tio n ' / Negro i P e rc e n t Negro / N e g r o * P e rc e n t Negro Iteicent Invaded Com posite C o st: P e a rso n r .8 7 - .5 7 - .5 ^ -■:9* - .6 3 - . 5 5 - . 6» t - .6 9 P a r t i a l r 1 9 .8 7 ns3 NS NS NS NS .1 9 NS P a r t i a l ra n k 1 NS NS NS . NS NS 2 NS Y a r. a c c t 'd . ( 2 . 78 0 ) .772 NS NS NS NS NS .008 NS S .E . o f e s tim a te R e g re ssio n c o e f f . 6 1 .3 .8 NS NS NS NS NS **.6 NS Owner C o st: P earso n r . .8 6 - .5 ^ - .7 9 - M - .5 3 - M - .55 - .68 P a r t i a l xr ' _ .86 NS NS - .2 0 NS NS NS NS P a r t i a l ra n k ^ 1 NS NS 2 NS • NS NS NS Y ar. a c c t 'd . (2 .7 5 7 ) .7M-7 NS NS .010 NS NS NS NS S .E . o f e s tim a te R e g re ssio n c o e f f . 7 .3 1 .5 1 NS NS - .0006 NS NS NS NS $AELE 6.22— ‘ Continued jQomponents, I960 Resid. Stabil• i Struct. Obsol. Pamily Matur. .Proximity to an Unwanted Population Tract Population Contiguous Population / Negro Percent^ Negro /Negro Percent ;Negro 1 Percent Invaded Renter Cost: Pearson r. .86 - .5 ^ i . VO - A 3 - .5 3 - A 6 - .5 5 - .6 8 Partial r1 p .8 6 MS MS - .20 MS NS NS NS Partial rank^ 1 MS MS 2 : ms NS NS NS Yar. acct'd. (2 .7 5 7 ) .7**7 MS MS .010 MS MS NS NS S.E. of estimate 7 .3 Begression coeff. 1 .5 MS NS. - .0006 MS NS MS NS ^(^alue, Component 0 All components entered previously) 2Sequence of entry into equation where highest r is entered, then highest partial. ^When partialled, this component does not reduce the residual variance significantly when tested at the .05 level* H TABLE. 6.23 .THE STRUCTURE OP RELATIVE DWELLING UNIT COST, I960 TRACTS IN THE SECOND QUARTILE Components j I9 6 0 1 R e s id . S t a b i l . S t r u c t . O b so l• ffam ily M atu r. P ro x im ity to an Unwanted P o p u la tio n i « T ra c t P o p u la tio n C o n tiguous P o p u la tio n i 1 - i 1 / N e g r o P e rc e n t Negro / |feg ro P e rc e n t . 7 Negro P e rc en t T ivaded Com posite C osts P e a rso n r . .98 - . 77 - .93 - £ l - .6 0 - .6 1 - .6 2 - .7 8 P a r t i a l r 1 .98 - .3b - .20 NS NS - NS NS i P a r t i a l ra n k 1 3 2 NS NS NS NS NS V ar. a c c t 'd . (2 -9 6 9 ) .96** .00** .001 NS NS NS NS NS S .E . o f e s tim a te R e g re ssio n c o e f f . 6 5 .6 .7 - .7 - 1 .1 NS NS V NS NS NS Owner C osts P e a rso n r .98 - .77 - .9** - .31 -.5** - . 5 5 - .5 9 - .7 8 P a r t i a l r 1 0 .98 NS NS - .19 NS NS NS NS P a r t i a l ran k ^ 1 NS NS 2 NS NS NS NS V ar. a c c t 'd . (2.96**) .963 NS NS oOOl NS NS NS NS S .E . o f e s tim a te R e g re ssio n c o e f f . 7 h .2 3 NS NS - .000** NS NS NS NS ■ JABLE 6 . 23 --Continue d Components, I960 Besid. Stabil. Struct. Obsol• Pamily Matur. Proximity to an Unwanted Population Trac t Population Contiguous Population /Negro Percent Negro / Negro Percent .Negro Percent Invaded Renter Costs . • ’■ ” Pearson r .98 H 00 • 1 -.93 -.50 -.62 -.60 - .63 -.77 Partial r1 0 .98 NS NS NS NS NS - .29 NS Partial rank^ 1 NS NS NS . NS NS 2 NS Yar. acct'd. (X.970) .96 NS NS NS NS NS .01 NS S.B. of estimate 6. 7* Begression ■ coeff. *+•3 NS NS NS NS NS - .8 NS ■^C^alue, Component 0 All components entered previously) Sequence of entry into equation where highest r is entered, then highest partial. ■^When parti ailed, this component does not reduce the residual variance significantly when tested at the .05 level. TABLE 6.2*t THE STRUCTURE OP BELATXVE DWELLING UNIT COST, i960 TBACTS IN THE THIBD QUARTILE Com ponents, i 960 B e s id . S ta b il. S t r u c t . O b so l• P am ily M atu r. t P ro x im ity to an Unwanted P o p u la tio n T ra c t P o p u la tio n C o n tig u o u s P o p u la tio n § Negro P e rc e n t Negro f Negro P e rc e n t Negro P e r c e n t p iv a d e d Com posite C osts P earso n r n .99 nB 0 1 1 j - .3 5 "•3 9 . H . 1 -«&3 - .6 6 P a r t i a l r 1 9 .9 9 NS NS - .2 1 NS NS P a r t i a l ra n k 1 NS NS NS NS 2 NS NS V ar. a c c t 'd . (2 .9 8 8 ) ' .987 NS NS NS NS .001 NS NS S .E . o f e s tim a te B e g re ssio n c o e f f . 6 .8 7 .1 NS NS NS : NS -.0 0 0 1 NS . NS Owner C o st: P earso n ! r .99 - .7 0 - . 9 ^ - .3 5 - .3 8 - .^ 6 - .6 7 P a r t i a l r 1 « •99 NS NS NS NS‘ NS NS •N S P a r t i a l ra n k ^ 1 NS NS NS NS NS NS NS V a r. a c c t 'd . (2 .9 8 7 ) .987 NS NS NS NS NS NS • NS S .E . o f e s tim a te B e g re ssio n c o e f f . 6 .7 NS. . NS NS NS NS NS NS TABLE 6.2M-— Continued * Components, i 960 Besid. Stabil. Proximity to an Unwanted Population Struct. Obsol. Pamily Matur. Tract Population Contiguous Population # Negro Percent Negro . If Negro Percent , Negro Percent Invaded Banter Cost: i * Pearson r .99 - .7 1 , “ *92 - .2 1 -.3 9 -.^l -.*f3 -.6 5 Partial 0 .99 m NS NS NS NS NS NS Partial !raok 1 ns NS NS. NS NS NS NS Var. acct'd. (L.988) .988 NS NS NS NS NS NS NS S.E. of estimate 6 •9 Begression coeff. 6.7 NS NS NS NS NS NS NS ^(rValue, Component ° All components entered previously) ^Sequence of entxy into equation where highest r is entered, then highest partial. ^When partialled, this component does not reduce the residual variance significantly when tested at the .05 level. H -r V J \ TABLE 6.25 THE STRUCTURE OP RELATIVE DWELLING UNIT COST, I960 TRACTS IN THE POURIH QUARTILE Com ponents, i 960 R e s id . S t a b i l . S t r u c t • O b so l. P am ily M atu r. P ro x im ity to an Unwanted P o p u la tio n T ra c t P o p u la tio n C o n tig u o u s P o p u la tio n i / N e g r o P e rc e n t Negro ; , $ Negro P e rc e n t Negro P e r c e n t In v ad ed C om posite C o st: - M - > 1 - .6 6 P e a rso n r r .99 - .63 - .86 - .2 5 " '•J a P a r t i a l r 1 0 •99 - .20 - .20 ns3 NS NS NS NS P a r t i a l ra n k 2 1 2 3 NS NS NS NS NS V ar. a c c t 'd . (S .9 9 “ t ) .9 9 2 .001 .001 NS NS : NS NS NS S .E . o f e s tim a te R e g re ssio n c o e f f . 9 -3 - .6 - .7 NS NS NS NS NS • Owner C o st: P e a rso n r •99 - .60 - .86 - .2 7 - .2 ^ - . ^ 7 - .3 ^ - . 6 2 P a r t i a l r 1 .99 NS NS NS NS NS NS NS P a r t i a l ra n k 2 1 NS NS NS NS NS NS NS V ar. a c c t 'd . ( £ . 993) .9 9 2 N S NS NS NS NS - NS NS S JE . o f e s tim a te R e g re s s io n c o e f f . 9 .7 NS NS NS NS NS NS NS ■ TABLE 6.25--Continued I Com ponents, I960 R e s id . S t a h i l . S tr u c t. O h so l• P am ily M atu r. P ro x im ity to an Unwanted P o p u la tio n T ra c t P o p u la tio rl C o n tiguous P o p u la tio n # Negro P e rc e n t Negro § Negrp P e rc e n t Negro P e r c e n t In v ad ed Etenter C ost P e a rso n r_ P a r t i a l r 1 P a r t i a l ra n k ^ Y ar, a c c t ’ d . (2 .9 9 3 ) S .E . o f e s tim a te R e g re ssio n c o e f f . .99 .99 1 .992 9 A - .6 3 NS . NS NS NS - .8 8 NS . NS NS ' NS - .2 7 NS NS NS NS - .3 2 - .21 2 .001 - .003 - .b o NS NS. NS NS - . h i NS NS NS NS - .6 6 NS NS NS NS p a r t i a l , * • C ^ a lu e , Component 0 A ll com ponents e n te r e d p r e v io u s ly ) 'Sequence o f e n tr y i n t o e q u a tio n where h ig h e s t r i s e n te r e d , th e n h ig h e s t ''When partialled, this component does not reduce the residual variance significantly when tested at the #05 level. ■5r S im ila r to th e m odels d e s c r ib in g c o s t toy q u a r t i l e in 1 9 ^ 0 , few p a t t e r n s a r e e x h ib ite d toy th e 1950 d e s c r ip tio n m odels p r e s e n te d i n T a b le s 6 . 11 * th ro u g h 6.17* In g e n e r a l, th e t o t a l p r o p o r tio n o f v a r ia n c e ac c o u n te d f o r toy th e com p o n e n ts in c r e a s e s toy q u a r t i l e , a s does th e im p o rtan ce o f r e s i d e n t i a l s t a b i l i t y . The r e l a t i v e c o n tr ib u tio n s o f th e o th e r com ponents a re m ix e d , w ith th e t h i r d q u a r t i l e o f owner c o s t b e in g a f f e c t e d by th e g r e a t e s t num ber o f compo n e n ts among m odels o f ow ner c o s t and w ith th e ex tre m es i n r e n t a l c o s t toeing in f lu e n c e d toy th e g r e a t e s t number o f com p o n e n ts among m odels o f r e n t a l c o s t . Q u a r tile m o d els p r e d ic tin g r e l a t i v e d w e llin g u n i t c o s t i n 1950 a r e sum m arized i n Tatoles 6 .1 8 th ro u g h 6 .2 1 . In g e n e r a l, th e s e m odels conform to th e p a t t e r n s e s ta b lis h e d toy th e 19^0-1950 c o s t p r e d ic tio n m o d e ls, tout w ith some n o ta b le e x c e p tio n s . As i n th e e a r l i e r m o d els, th e t o t a l v a r ia n c e a c c o u n te d f o r in c r e a s e s w ith each q u a r t i l e , from lo w e s t to h i g h e s t , a s does th e v a ria n c e ac c o u n ted f o r toy r e s i d e n t i a l s t a b i l i t y . The im p o rta n ce o f s t r u c t u r a l o b so le sc e n c e d e c re a s e s a s q u a r t i l e i n c r e a s e s . In th e e a r l i e r p r e d i c t i o n m o d e l, fa m ily m a tu r ity ac h ie v e d i t s g r e a t e s t e f f e c t a t th e e x tre m es o f c o s t , w h ile i n th e s e m odels th e g r e a t e s t e f f e c t was found to toe i n th e m id d le q u a r t i l e s o f c o s t f o r tooth ow ner and r e n t e r m o d els. A lso i n c o n t r a d ic ti o n to th e e a r l i e r m o d e ls, th e im p o rtan ce o f TABLE 6.26 THE STRUCTURE OP RESIDENTIAL STABILITY, 1950 ' r. . . . . Com ponents, 19^0 R e s id . C ost S t r u c t . O b so l• . . . P ro x im ity to an Unwanted P o p u la tio n F am ily M atu r. T ra c t P o p u la tio n C o n tig u o u s P o p u latio n • -*• v ' " • . / N e g r o P e rc e n t Negro # Negrc P e rc e n t Negro P ercen t Breaded Com posite C o st: ! ' r - M - • / P e a rso n r-, .86 - .93 - .2 5 - .2 5 . - .3 ^ - .2 9 - .Mf P a r t i a l r p *79 - .5 7 - .93 hs3 NS NS NS .13 P a r t i a l rank** 2 3 1 NS NS NS NS h Y ar. a c c t 'd . C ?.967) .088 .018 .860 NS NS NS NS .001 S .E . o f e s tim a te R e g re ssio n c o e f f . 1 . 6 .5 78 -26.9 -90.2 NS NS N S7 NS - 1 .3 0 Owner C o st: P e a rso n r-, .83 - M - .93 - .2 5 - .2 5 - . 3 1 * - - .2 9 - M P a r t i a l r 2 .7 2 - .59 - .93 NS NS NS NS v0 9 P a r t i a l ra n k 2 3 1 NS NS NS NS V ar. a c c t 'd . (2 .9 5 7 ) .07** .023 .859 NS NS NS NS .001 S JB • o f e s tim a te B e g re s s io n c o e f f . 1 . 6 .1 r 1-30.8 -93.9 NS NS . NS NS -i.o 5 i-* £ 3JAB1E 6,26— Continued Components, 19**0 Besid. Cost Struct. Ohsol• Pamily Matur. i Proximity to an Unwanted Population Tract Population Contiguous Po]pulation f Negro Percent Negro , # Negro Percent Negro Percent .Invaded Benter Cost: - Pearson r. Partial ar' p Partial rank Tar. acct'd. (2 .9 6 3 ) S.E. of estimate Begression coeff. .85 .7 8 2 .0 8 5 . 1 6 .3 - b b - .5 5 3 .017 .86 . -26.3 - .93 - .93 1 .860 -9 2 .7 - .2 5 NS NS NS NS - .2 5 NS NS NS NS - . 2 b NS NS NS NS - .2 9 NS NS NS NS - b b - .13 i f .001 - 1 .3 ^ l(rValue, Component 0 All components entered previously) ^Sequence of entry into equation where highest r is entered, then highest partial, ^When partialled, this component does not reduce the residual variance significantly when tested at the .05 level. v n o . TABLE 6 .2 7 THE STBSCTUBE OP EESIEENTIA1 STABILITY, i 960 Com ponents, 1950 P ro x im ity to an Unwanted P o p u la tio n • /.£' B e s id . C ost S t r u c t . O b so l• P am ily M atu r. T ra c t P o p u la tio n C o n tig u o u s P o p u la tio n # Negro P e rc e n t 0 Negro P e rc e n t P e rc e n t \ Negro • j [Negro Ib v ad ed Com posite C o st: ; ■ ‘ '■ ' ;; P earso n r_ ..8 7 -•6*fr - .9 3 - .3 2 - .3 6 - .hh -.ho - . 6 5 P a r t i a l r 1 0 .71 - .7 2 - .9 3 ns3 NS -.lh NS - .28 P a r t i a l ra n k 2 3 1 US NS 5 NS h V ar. a c c t 'd . (2 .9 7 0 ) .0 7 2 .037 .857 NS NS .001 NS .003 S .E . o f e s tim a te 6 .5 B e g re ssio n c o e f f . 5 .8 - 2 6 .0 -5 * f.l N S NS - .0 0 5 ; N S' - 2 .7 9 Owner C o st: P ea rso n r .83 - .6^ - .93 - .3 2 - .3 6 - t e -JfQ - .6 5 P a r t i a l r 1 •66 - .93 - .1 2 NS NS NS - .23 P a r t i a l ra n k 2 2 3 1 5 NS NS NS h V a r. a c c t 'd . (£.964-) .062 .04-2 .857 .001 - NS NS NS .002 S .E . o f e s tim a te -7 .7 B e g re ssio n c o e f f . 5 A -2 8 .6 - 5 8 .1 - .0 0 2 NS NS NS - 2 .1 2 M TABLE 6.27— Continued Com ponents, 1950 R e s id . C ost S tr u c t O b so l. P am ily M atu r. P ro x im ity to an Unwanted P o p u la tio n T ra c t P o p u la tio n C o n tiguous Pojp u la tio n / N e g r o P e rc e n t Negro / N e g r o P e rc e n t Negro P e r c e n t In v ad ed R e n te r C o st: P ea rso n r . P a r t i a l r p P a r t i a l ra n k V ar. a c c t ’d , (2 .9 5 8 ) S .E . o f e s tim a te R e g re ssio n c o e f f . .8 6 .68 3 .0*fl 19 5 .k - .6*f - .62 2 .055 .1 -27.5 - .93 - .93 1 .857 -55.0 - .3 2 NS NS NS NS - .3 6 NS NS NS NS - .k b ~5*19 .002 - .009 -.k O NS NS NS NS - .6 5 - .2fc b .003 - 3 .3 3 ^ ( r Value , Component 0 A ll com ponents e n te r e d p r e v io u s ly ) ^Sequence o f e n tz y i n t o e q u a tio n w here h ig h e s t r i s e n te r e d , th e n h ig h e s t p a r t i a l . ^When p a r t i a l l e d , t h i s com ponent does n o t red u ce th e r e s id u a l v a ria n c e s i g n i f i c a n t l y when t e s t e d a t th e .0 5 l e v e l . H V J | -------- : -------_ ---- : —: --- ---— ---——: ----------- ---- —-------------------- : ----------------- _____----------------■ ~ ----: --------- W J — ^ th e p ro x im ity t o an u n a c c e p ta b le p o p u la tio n d e c re a se d w ith e a c h in c r e a s e i n q u a r t i l e , from betw een f i v e and s i x p e r c e n t o f th e v a ria n c e i n m odels o f th e f i r s t q u a r t i l e o f c o s t to 0 ,1 p e rc e n t f o r th e f o u r th q u a r t i l e . A r e c e n t stu d y o f s o c i a l d is ta n c e among N egroes and C au casian s r e i n f o r c e s th e n o tio n o f th e n e g a tiv e a s s o c ia tio n betw een s o c i a l d is ta n c e and s o c i a l c l a s s . T h is stu d y r e p o r te d t h a t o f th e two r a c i a l g ro u p s and two s o c ia l c l a s s e s (m id d le and lo w e r) m id d le c l a s s N egroes have th e b e s t a c c e p ta n c e o f o th e r e th n o - r a c i a l g ro u p s fo llo w e d by m id d le c l a s s w h ite s , 2 lo w e r c l a s s w h ite s and th e n N eg ro es. M odels d e s c r ib in g r e l a t i v e c o s t i n I960 by q u a r t i l e , T a b le s 6 .2 2 th ro u g h 6 .2 5 , show an in c r e a s e i n th e p r o p o r tio n o f v a ria n c e a c c o u n te d f o r by s t r u c t u r a l compo n e n ts a s th e q u a r t i l e o f c o s t i n c r e a s e s . The c o n t r i b u t io n o f o th e r com ponents i s m ix ed , and no d e f i n i t e p a t te r n s may be deduced from th e sum m aries. The Im p o rtan ce o f B e s id e n tia l S t a b i l i t y The t h e o r e t i c a l re le v a n c e o f r e s i d e n t i a l s t a b i l i t y a s a s t r u c t u r a l com ponent o f r e l a t i v e d w e llin g u n i t c o s t was o r i g i n a l l y e s t a b li s h e d a s a m easure o f th e r e s i d u a l ^Ju d so n R . L a n d is , D a rry l D a tw y le r, and Dean S . D orn, "Race and S o c ia l C la s s a s D e te rm in a n ts o f S o c ia l D is ta n c e . 1 1 S o cio lo g y and S o c ia l Be s e a r c h . V o l. .5 1 , No. 1 (O c to b e r, l£ 6 6 ; , 7o^bb. _ _ . . i 9 i; effect of other structural components over time. Residen tial stability measures the ability* of a tract to maintain its population in competition with other traots. Residen tial stability emerged as the most important component of relative dwelling unit cost in virtually every model con structed in this study. As a measure of the residual effects of structural determinism! its primaiy position in each model is especially relevant} as the theory of struc tural determinism is morphological in oharacter. Thus one should find the determination of cost to be linked with an aggregation of structural components, each having a his toric base. In order to measure the validity of residential stability as a substitute for the cumulative effects of structural determinism! we must subject it to the same type of analysis performed thus far on relative dwelling unit cost, with residential stability replacing cost as the dependent variable and cost replacing residential stability among the independent variables. If residential stability is a suitable measure of the cumulative effects of the other structural components when combined with cost, longitudinal models developed must result in the indepen dent variables accounting for the major proportion of variance in residential stability! temporally phased. All structural components must add significantly to the reduc tion of variance in residential stability. As this validation includes a time series, models are constructed which predict residential stability, while no descriptive models are analyzed. Although cross-sectional association may be present, it has no theoretical relevance to this study. Tables 6 .2 6 and 6 .2 7 present a statistical summary of prediction models of residential stability for 1950 and I 9 6 0 . When reviewing these tables, it is important to note that the theoxy of structural determinism includes a neigh borhood as its base. Therefore, the structural components include summaries of entire tracts, not simply those for rented or owner-occupied units, as separate groups. There fore, Fearson r's are the same for composite cost, owner cost, and for renter cost within component. Only the rela tionships between residential stability and cost ohange for each model as a different definition of the tracts status given a particular occupancy is used. F o r each model, for each census year predicted, the coefficient of multiple correlation was .9 8 . The pro portion of the variance in residential stability accounted for by the independent variables ranged from .958 to .9 7 0 . The structural components and previous cost together accounted for virtually the entire variance in residential stability, and with cost removed from the equation, between .879 and .9 1 7 . Thus, residential stability is an excellent 156 m easure o f th e c u m u la tiv e e f f e c t s o f th e s t r u c t u r a l v a r i a b l e s , and i t s im p o rtan ce i n th e d e s c r ip tio n and p r e d ic tio n o f c o s t i s t r u l y t h a t o f a h i s t o r i c a l a g g re g a te o f th e e f f e c t s o f s t r u c t u r a l com ponents. CHAPTER V I I THE IMPACT OP STRUCTURAL DETERMINISM ON THE WESTERN. METROPOLIS This study began with the description of the geographic expansion of the western metropolis around a decaying core of older, obsolescent neighborhoods* These neighborhoods, once the pride of the city, have experienced decades of constant economic downgrading brought about by social structural components and time . The- analyses pre sented in the preceding chapters leave little doubt that there is a direct relationship between social structural components and the relative cost or desirability of neigh borhoods • Through the use of the approximations of theo retical components presented here, it has been possible to explain between 75 percent and 88 percent of the variance in relative cost of housing* Although the present study has included an insufficient period of time to establish a trend, it appears that the proportion of variance that may be explained by these structural components will increase in later decades* Analysis by quartile of cost at each base census 157- 158 has shown that In predicting desirability of.tract at the next oensus the importance of residential stability) structural history) becomes more important as cost at the base year increases. The opposite is true with respect to structural obsolescence and family maturity. Tracts of greater desirability at the b^pe census retain their respective statuses despite the presence of older housingy or young families. The Importance of the Proximity of an Unacoept- able Population to the Determination or Relative Housing Cost It has been shown that the residential stability of a neighborhood has a great influence in the determina tion of its future desirability* Further, it has been demonstrated that the importance of specific structural components differ by occupancy type; and by strata of rela tive desirability. The predictive value of most of the components used has remained constant. A notable exception is the proximity of an unacceptable population. The importance of the proximity of an unacceptable population increased over the two decades studied9 and that increase came at the expense of the component of family maturity. \ The importance of the physical nearness of an unacceptable population nearby is a relatively new compo nent within Los Angeles metropolis and) most assuredly, to other western metropolises. Its importance has increased 159 with time coincident with an Increase in the relative size of the population used as demonstrative of an unacceptable population. She structural importance of the proximity to an unacceptable population increases as the strata of rela tive desirability of a tract decreases. This component is generally more important in the determination of future rental cost than in the cost of owner-occupied units. Further, in virtually every model, the variables measuring portions of this component which were of sufficient impor tance to be included in the formulas had to do with the proximity of Negroes around the traot, rather than within it. In evexy model, the proximity to an unacceptable population was the last to be included in the model after all other components had been entered through partial analysis. This fact lends support to a theoretical sequencing in the social setting. That is, all other com ponents being equal, the fact of the proximity of the neighborhood to one where an unacceptable population resides, in this case the Negro, is of sufficient impor tance to warrant the relative downgrading of dwelling unit cost. The Effects of Structural Components on Belative Cost of Housing In each model it has been determined that an inverse relationship exists between relative cost of : . _ : “ i ^ c housing and structural obsolescence , family maturity and the proximity to an unwanted population* Only the compo nent representing the historical structure of the area carried a positive relationship with cost* This is of great significance to the theoxy of structural determinism) as these relationships suggest the downgrading of all tracts within the metropolis that include older dwelling units) have an abundance of children) or that are proxi- mous to a population considered undesirable* further) once a level of relative desirability is set, it tends to persist* Thus) once downgraded) a tract will tend to remain at that level* for our analyses) a new scale of relative cost was constructed for each census under test* This means that at each census) tracts were arranged in cost order and then assigned a percentile rank* As each distribution has a theoretical mean and median of 50*09 the sum of the differences among tract ranks from one census to the next must be zero • If some tracts are down graded) the relative value of an equal number must be enhanced* Status upgrading comes with a relative change in the components having an inverse relationship with relative economic desirability* This change may be accom plished by a relative decrease in the density of older dwelling units and/or a gradual reduction in the youthful population* In a relative sense it is possible to reduce the 3.62 proximity of an unacceptable population;, either by intent , urban renewal, zoning change or highway construction, or through the gradual lessening of the relative extent of proximity to one area due to an increased proximity to other areas. In practical terms, however, the proximity of a population defined as unacceptable is irreversible fox’ most areas. Another means by which a tract might enhance its relative residential cost is through construction, k p the addition of land to residential use has occurred princi pally at the perimeter of the metropolis; as neighborhoods nearby contain few older dwellings and are some distance from populations classified traditionally as unacceptable and who are economically unavailable neighbors; as thebe areas become residential through a change from open to residential land use they have little in the way of struc turally deterministic history; the construction of new dwelling units will serve to enhance the residential value of the area immensely. Unmeasured by this study, this phenomenon resides within the portion of the variance in cost which is unaccounted for by the structural components used. Once originally defined, relative cost of housing, whether aggregate, owner- or renter-occupied, is there after determined by social structural components having to 162 do with historic structure of the neighborhood, the rela tive obsolescence of its dwellings, the age distribution of its population and its proximity to an unacceptable population* While the relative importance of some struc tural components appears to be changing, the sum of the structural components is becoming a more important measure of cost with each passing decade* The Belevanoe of Structural Determinism The ooncept of structural determinism as an explan ation of variations in the relative desirability of areas within the metropolis with respect to the cost of residing in a given type of unit, owned or rented, has great poten tial for urban sociologists and planners alike. Por the sociologist, it explains cost as a relative term within a social setting. The theory consists of the isolation of component parts of cost which have to do with potential relative cost alone, free of the spatial constraints and analytically defined dimensions so common among morpho logical theories. In addition, this theory does not pur port to include precise specifications for application to - / other settings and other populations, but merely identifies the existence of social structural components which in turn act in a deterministic manner to modify the relative cost of housing within an area. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- i 6 3 Urban Simulation For both the urban sociologist and the planner, this theory provides the basis for simulation studies of the metropolis as structural components are modified for given areas and for a specific period of time. For Instance, if one were to use this theory and simulate the aging of the core of the metropolis at a given rate, the desirability of the core will decrease. If concomitant to this aging process we introduce a population into that core which has been defined by the majority as ^acceptable as neighbors, the desirability of the core and the residential area surrounding it will decrease. 1 The population remain ing in the core and its contiguous area will then seek residence elsewhere, leaving behind vacant units which will further compound the decrease in relative desirability as the social aftereffect of change. Those families leaving the central area will seek housing in areas where they believe a similar change will not occur. Their quest for housing will increase the demand for units in structurally desirable areas, inflating their relative desirability. The social structural component of proximity to a ■^The non-white proportion of the population has increased in all urban areas of the United States except those in the South. See: Leo F. Schnore, "Some Correlates of Urban Size: A Be plication," American J:ouraalof Sooiology. LXIX, Bo. 2 (September, T& bU'D’, 16 k population which has been defined as unacceptable carries with it the theory that if a member of this population group finds housing nearby, members of the majority popu lation will seek housing elsewhere * Having sought housing elsewhere , the majority population will leave the entire area of former residence to members of the unacceptable group. As the metropolis has grown outward in stages con sistent with residential social structural determinism, the area undergoing this change will include the most desirable dwelling units yet to be occupied by the population deemed unacceptable as neighbors. After a transitory period, units in this area will become occupied by this new popu lation to the virtual exclusion of members of the majority. 2 population. In a simulation model, this process will con tinue until either a limit to the perimeter of the metropo lis has been reached and no appropriate additional land may be put to residential use, until renewal of older units i in presently desirable areas has been completed, or until the population potential of that group deemed unacceptable as neighbors has been exhausted. If the perimeter has not reached its outer limit pr housing renewal proximous to it has not been completed, ^See: Raymond W. Mack and Dennis G. McElrath, "Urban Social Differentiation and the Allocation of Resources," The Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Sciences, cddjjlfr CMarch. 190^^ 2S-32. "T and the input of the unacceptable population to the metrop olis has heen exhausted, the transitory area will move outward as before. The core area however will be increas ingly characterized by unoccupied units due to the popula tion size, limitations of the group deemed unacceptable as neighbors. Those dwelling units which remain unoccupied for an extended period of time will come into disrepair for lack of occupancy.^ At the same time, the neighbor- j hoods will lack the social structural components necessary for residential renewal, as units replacing them will be needfully expensive due to the proximity of these neigh borhoods to the traditional city center and its con- h . veniences. Majority members will choose not to occupy • renewed dwelling units in these neighborhoods because of | their proximity to the population group which has been | defined as unacceptable as neighbors. Greer and Moynihan i ' ■ ■ ' • - I view urban renewal as the elimination of low cost housing needed by the lesser advantaged of the population: H. • • at a cost of more than three billion dollars, the Urban Renewal Agency has succeeded in materially reducing ^Bernard J. Frieden, The Future of Old Neighbor hoods (Cambridge: MIT Press, 196**), pp. 2, 3. ^Anthony N. B. Garvan, "Cultural Change and the PlannerAnnals of the American Academy of Political and Sooial Selerioe. ftgflLlI (March. 1 W ) . 35-38.---- 166 the supply of low cost housing in American cities." Moynihan proposes that indices of urban conditions, both nationwide and by city, be developed in order to appraise the status of urban life. He proposes that social negative aspects of the urban condition, perhaps at the 6 risk of alienating some whose support they now have . Neither, however, will square to the reality that in fact the federal Housing and Urban Development Agency (H.U.D.) and other renewal agencies are reacting to the will of the majority who seek to rid the metropolis of unacceptable populations yet who, unwittingly, are responsible for their suburbward migration. There are numerous outcomes of this kind of simula tion game. Sociologist and planner alike are invited to engage in simulation models using the theory of residential social structural determinism. Edmund N. Bacon exemplifies the importance of the ecology of the neighborhood in the phenomenon of growing up. Children are limited in their i '' ! 5 I ' k statement attributed to Scott Greer in Daniel P. Moynihan's "Urban Conditions:, General," Annals of the * ' of Political and Social Science. C66I 1 XXI scientists address themselves to both the positive and the The Outcomes— Deterioration and Differentiation •' , ie ? mobility and thus interact in a relatively ^ Bacon is disturbed that the average child does not meet and interact with a cross-section of children but with those of similar socioeconomic characteristics. He explains that because of this limited opportunity for interaction with children of other strata, the United States does not develop leaders who are competent to deal with the problems and issues of other strata.^ Virtually every outcome of simulation modelling results in the social structural iso lation of segmented areas on the perimeter of the metropo- 8 lie while the urban core deteriorates. Be it segmented, multiple nucleated, or simply functionally separate commun- 9 . ities, the western metropolis is destined for social and ultimately political segmentation by place of residence;3 '0 ^Edmund N. Bacon, "American Homes and Neighborhoods, City and Country," The Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science. ^CCLXXIX (July, 1966). 118- H T * ~ : ^F o r a discussion of the effects of this isolation on public transportation see: James 0* Wheeler, "Transpor tation Problems in Negro Ghettos," Sociology and Social Be search. Vol. 53, No. 2 (January, ), 1/1-179 • ^See: Chauncy P. Harris and Edward 1. Ullman, "The Nature of Cities," The Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science. (&XLII CNovember. 19M-D). 7- 171 Homer Hoyt. The Structure and Growth of Besidential Neighborhoods in American Cities (Washington. D. C.: Federal Housing Authority. l93^<), pp. 112-122. Ernest W. Burgess, "The New Community and Its Future«" Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science« CXLIX ( l « 6 ) , 161-K 2.--------- --------------------------------------- 10This may result in an urban redefinition of the 168 Beeent trends in housing construction and marketing which include the virtual manufacture of all of the component parts of a viable community hasten this outcome. Stated goals of housing and residential renewal programs may be subserved under four general goals: that of increasing investment in housing, thus raising the quality of sub standard units to the norm; reduction of housing cost; an increase in the number of alternatives available to all families; and increased adaptability of the residential inventory to changing requirements. Financial resources are not a barrier to these objectives. The barriers are that these goals are not uniformly held, are interpreted in many ways, conflict with each other and are not consistent with political goals and attitudes. The most serious barrier to the realization of housing boals is the conflict between central city and suburb. • , :m housing for low and lower middle income families has lost its priority in the city and has been positively resisted in the suburbs.12. Concept of natural area to the development of natural city areas as defined by social barriers. Sees Harvey W. Zorbaugh, "The Natural Areas of the City," in George A. Theodorson (ed.), Studies in Human Ecology (Evanston: How Peterson and Company, 1961), pp. 11 John Casparis, "Shopping Center Location and Hetail Store Mix in Netropolitan Areas.," Demography. Vol. 6, No. 2 (May, 1969), 125-132. 12William G. Grigsby, "Housing and Slum Clearance: Elusive Goals," The Annals of the American Academy of Polit ical and Social Science. CCCLll (karoh, 19bM-)t llo. ~ In deterministic terms, the potential disaggregation of the central city as such is hastened by a single social structural component, that of the definition of population groups as being undesirable neighbors. Were it not for this increasingly important component, obsolescent areas might be rebuilt and then renewed socially as a place of residence for those who now seek housing at the perimeter of the metropolis. With regard to current use of federal financial assistance to state and local government: "Given the great needs of state and local governments and their lack of resources in comparison with the federal government,' it is 13 inevitable that this assistance will continue to grow." Each large funding agency has its own grant admin* istration, including H.U.D., and its own requirements. "Furthermore, programs are developed frequently on a crash basis, which places a premium on piece-meal action. The result often is an administrative mishmash, tL with little over-rall planning." ■ ~v J . Summary of Gohclusions . This study has attempted to define the structural ^Brevard CrihfieId and George A. Bell, "Budgeting for State and Local Government^Services," The Annals of the American Academv of Political-and Social Science• C C f iM x X S e p te ib e r , 3 5 . °------------------------------------ ^ Ibid..' p. 36. 170 com ponents o f h o u sin g o o s t and to develop a th e o ry o f s o o ia l s t r u c t u r a l d e te rm in ism In r e s i d e n t i a l c o s t f o r th e ex p a n d in g w e ste rn m e tr o p o lis . Component p a r t s o f th e th e o ry o f r e s i d e n t i a l s t r u c t u r a l d eterm in ism are s o c i a l s t r u c t u r a l h i s t o r y , h o u sin g o b s o le s c e n c e , fam ily m a tu r i t y , and th e p ro x im ity to * n < n n accep tab le p o p u la tio n . The a n a ly s e s o f th e 1 9 ^0 , 1 9 5 0 , and i 960 c e n s u s e s o f p o p u la tio n and h o u sin g f o r Los A n g eles County s u p p o rt th e n e c e s s i t y a& cT s u f f i c ie n c y o f th e th e o ry and o f i t s com ponent p a r t s . In thO interest of specificity, analyses were undertaken by occupancy type, aggregate, owned and rented; and by cost strata as defined by quartile of cost at each base census year. Each of the models achieved greater specificity with time and each added to the definition of residential struc tural determinism relevant to its theoretical base. Once defined and then summarized, the relevance of this theory to further research in urban morphology was described. Given the present social structure of urban America with respect to the definition of specific, popula tion groups as unacceptable as neighbors, the use of the theoxy in simulation games predicts the end of the urban core as a residential area and forecasts the segmentation and political separation of sub-metropolitan areas as a means of isolation from residents of the urban core. At the same time, the application of the theory to the 1 7 1 simulation of future settings would be consistent with the theoiy of central dominance given the removal of a single structural component, that of the definition of population groups as unacceptable as neighbors* With social ^quality in the residential setting, the removal of barriers to the reconstitution of the urban core can become a reality; without social equality however, they cannot. ...» “ ■ ° APPENDIX CORRELATION MATRICES TABLE A . 1 f INTERCOREELATIONS A M O N G COMPONENTS, ALL TRACTS © — ^ * O ' c u Cfc f 'Com ponent , 19^0 1 a 3- ■ v . . a r 0 a a 1 ..R e s i d e n t i a l S t a b i l i t y 2 . S S tr u c tiir a l O b so lescen ce 3 • P am ily M a tu rity b • P ro x im ity a . Number Negro to<*°an b . P e rc e n t Negro U n ae ce p t- c . # Negro C o n tig . T ra c ts a b le P op- d . % Negro C o n tig . T ra c ts i l l a t i o n e . % C o n tig . T r a c ts Inv ad ed - .9 3 ^ 3 0 - .2 6 .1 ^ ^^27 - .2 6 .1 5 .26 ^ 9 8 - .3 5 .21 .36 .86 ^ 8 5 - .3 0 .19 .87 .87 .87 ^ 9 2 - M .2*f M .73 .73 .6 7 .8 V © c <3- .... , c ' • ' ■' i v ■ - 1 'o Com ponent, 1950 i ■ ' ■ 1 2 3 V b . a b c d e 1 . R e s id e n tia l S t a b i l i t y 2 . S t r u c t u r a l O b so lescen ce 3* P am ily M a tu rity b . P ro x im ity a . Number Negro t o a n b . P e rc e n t Negro U n ac ce p t- c . § Negro C ontig* T ra c ts a b le Pop- d . % Negro C o n tig . .T ra c ts u l a t i o n e . f> C o n tig . T ra c ts In v ad ed < 565^ - .3 2 .23 ^ 3 6 - .3 6 .3 0 .3 7 ^ 8 5 .3 ° M7 .81 ^ 8 2 -.**0 .36 .39 .76 .91 ^ 8 7 - .6 6 .5 2 .63 .6k .7k .7 9 ■ ■ ■ ■ s i .T A B L E A ,1— Continued Component) I960 1 . R e s id e n tia l S t a b i l i t y 2 . S t r u c t u r a l O b so lescen ce 3 . P am ily t o t u r i t y H - m P ro x im ity a* Number Negro to an b . P e rc e n t Negro U naC cept- c • § Negro C o n tig . T ra c ts a b le Pop- d . % Negro C o n tig . T ra c ts n l a t i o n e . $ C o n tig . T ra c ts Invaded 1 z 3 - b . cr d er *^68 - .9 1 -.3 7 - .b 9 - .5 0 - .5 2 - . 7 2 ^ 5 2 •2*fr- .39 .30 .**3 .5 2 M .58 .59 .57 .7 5 .68 .7 5 .59 .58 .73 .9 ^ .8 2 .7*+ .7 5 .86 c .TABLE A.2 o' • * ^ INTERCQRRELATIONS A M O N G COMPONENTS, FIRST QUARTILE OF COMPOSITE RANK £ o ’ Component, 19^0 1 2 3 A * b o d e 1 . R e s id e n tia l S t a b i l i t y 2. S t r u c t u r a l O bsolescence 3. Fam ily M a tu rity + . P ro x im ity a . Number Negro to an b . P e rc e n t Negro U n accep t- c . # Negro C o n tig . T ra c ts a b le Pop** d . % Negro C o n tig . T ra c ts u l a t i o n e . # C o n tig . T ra c ts Invaded .^Ao -.9,5 -.36 .13 ^ 3 5 -.3 5 .98 -A 7 .18 A6 .86 .86 -A 2 .18 A l .86 .88 .96 - .53 • J 9 .52 .77 .78 .88 .87 i ‘_______ ' • • J 5 ^Component', 1950 1 2 3 b a b c d e h.. R e s id e n tia l S t a b i l i t y 2. S t r u c t u r a l O b so lescen ce 3 . F am ily M a tu rity f . P ro x im ity a . Number Negro t o an b . P e rc e n t Negro U n ac cep t- c . § Negro C o n tig . T r a c ts a b le P op- & .% Negro C o n tig . T ra c ts | u l a t i o n e . % C o n tig . T ra c ts In v ad ed ^.63 -A 3 f 3 *A9 -A 6 .26 .50 ^ 9 6 -A 9 .25 .52 .90 .90 -A 9 .30 .50 .85 .93 .89 -.7^ A 5 .72 •71 * - .80 .81 .83 TABLE A.2— Continued ! i 1 1 I ! -Component, I9 6 0 ! 1 2 3 b • a b c d e 1 . R e s id e n tia l S t a b i l i t y \2. S t r u c t u r a l O b so lescen ce 13. Fam ily M a tu rity b . P ro x im ity a , Humber Negro t o a n b . P e rc e n t Negro U n ac ce p t- c . # Negro C o n tig . T ra c ts a b le Pop- d . % Negro C o n tig . T ra c ts u l a t i o n e . $ C o n tig . T ra c ts Inv ad ed ^ 6 9 - .9 b - .5 5 .26 .63 - .6 h .3 2 .71 .89 - .5 7 •2*f- .eh .9 2 .83 - .6 6 .35: .68 .82 .9 5 .79 - .8 3 M .Bh .7 7 .88 .8 0 .9 0 TABLE A.3 INTERGOBBELATIONS AM ONG. COMPONENTS, SECOND QUABTIIiE OP COMPOSITE BANK Component, 19**0 1 2 3 ■ •' ' b '■ a ' b c d e 1* B e s id e n tia l S t a b i l i t y 2 . S t r u c t u r a l O bsolescence 3 . Pam ily M a tu rity + . P ro x im ity a . Number Negro t o an b . P e rc e n t Negro U n a c cep t- c . § Negro C o n tig . T ra c ts .a b le Pop- d . % Negro C o n tig . T ra c ts U l a t i o n e . $ C o n tig . T ra c ts Invaded < ^ 5 9 - .97 ^ A 3 - .2 8 .20 .2*f - .2 8 .21 .23 .98 - .3 1 .26 .26 .91 .89 - .2 7 .23 .2 2 .9 2 .90 , .99 -.M f .3 2 .39 .8 2 .81 .8 7 ; .86 C om ponent, 1950 i - 1 2 3 if a b c d e 1 . B e s id e n tia l S t a b i l i t y 2 . S t r u c t u r a l O bsolescence 3 . Pam ily M a tu rity ff. P ro x im ity a . Number Negro t o an b . P e rc e n t Negro U n a c cep t- c . § Negro C o n tig . T ra c ts a b le P op- d . $ Negro C o n tig . T ra c ts u l a t i o n e . £ C o n tig . T ra c ts In v ad ed < ^ 7 5 - .9 3 ^ 5 2 - .3 6 .25 ^ - 3 6 -.* t2 .3 7 .36 .7 5 - .5 b .39 .52 .76 .7 7 - M ¥ .bo .6 7 .90 .8 6 - . 7 2 .6 5 .6*f •5? .1b .81 .83 177 TABLE A.3— Continued i ' - CdmpozD^Lt , I9 6 0 1 2 . 7 1 • " ■ k a b c d e 1 . Be s i d e n t i a l ;S ta b ili ty 2 . S t r u e t u r a l O b s o l e scen e e A ' •■'■"«.»*** S ' ' ' " . 3 . F am ily M a tu rity P ro x im ity a . Number Negro to an b . P e rc e n t Negro U nacceptr.:o* # Negro C o n tig . T ra c ts a b le P<f# d . % Negro C o n tig . T r a c ts u l a t i o n e . $ C o n tig . T ra c ts Evaded -^ 8 1 - .9 6 < i 9 - .I f O .26 M - .6 2 .58 .66 .50 M .69 .80 .73 - .6 6 .6 2 .66 J*2 - P .7 ^ - .8 1 .7 0 *82 .8 5 .78 .9 0 TABLE A .k INTERCORRELATIONS AMONG COMPONENTS, THIRD QUARTILE OP COMPOSITE RANK Component, 19kO 1 2 3 -• • ■ it - a b c d e 1 . R e s id e n tia l S t a b i l i t y 2 . S t r u c t u r a l O b so lescen ce 3 . Pam ily M a tu rity k . P ro x im ity a . Number Negro to an b . P e rc e n t Negro U n ac ce p t- c • # Negro C o n tig . T ra c ts a b le Pop- d . % Negro C o n tig . T ra c ts u l a t i o n e . $ C o n tig . T ra c ts Invaded - .9 k ^ 3 7 - .2 6 .2 0 .2 2 - .2 0 .16 .16 .9 7 -;k k .bO •36 .38 .3 5 ’•3b .36 .26 .36 •3k .9 7 m .b 2 .bo .33 .3 2 .30 .91 .89 i — ■ ■ , • i « * Component, 1950 1 2 3 if a b c d e 1 . R e s id e n tia l S t a b i l i t y 2 . S t r u c t u r a l O b so lescen ce 3 . Pam ily M a tu rity k . P ro x im ity a . Number Negro t o an b . P e rc e n t Negro U n accep t- c . # Negro C o n tig . T r a c ts n b le Pop- d . % Negro C o n tig . T r a c ts t t l a t i o n e . % C o n tig . T ra c ts Invaded - . 9 ! ^ k 7 - .3 5 .36 3 3 - .3 1 .35 .2 6 .90 - .k g % v57 -.J+3 .b e •36 .8 2 .8 7 .78 -.6 k .5k : U .68 .7k .8 k H -v 3 \£ > TABLE A m b— C o ntinued i - • : •- ' ' * 1 2 3 b / Coffiplonent, I9 6 0 a b c d e pT * B e s id e n tia l S t a b i l i t y ;2» S t r u c t u r a l O bsolescence 3 • Pam ily M aturity., b , P ro x im ity a# Number Negro j t o a n b . P e rc e n t Negro U n accep t- c . § Negro C o n tig . T ra c ts a b le Pop- d . $ Negro C o n tig . T ra c ts u l a t i o n e . % C o n tig . T r a c ts Invaded ^ 7 2 - .S k ^ 5 1 - .3 6 .28 .^ 0 -.b o .38 .38 .7 9 - M .26 .be .3 5 .b2 - ,M+ m b b mbl .6 2 .86 .63 - .6 7 .6 b .5 7 .1b .&* .8 0 i j i I — 1 GO O = TABLE A .5 ipftSgSQBBELATIONS A M O N G COMPONENTS, FOUBTH QUABTILE OP COMPOSITE BANK i ■ \ - ■ Com ponent, 19^0 1 . 2 3 • a ■ b c d e 1 . B e s id e n tia l S t a b i l i t y 2 . S t r u c t u r a l O bsolescence 3 . Fam ily M a tu rity * fr. P ro x im ity a . Number Negro . t o an b . P e rc e n t Negro U n ac ce p t- c . # Negro C o n tig • T ra c ts a b le Pop- d . % Negro C o n tig . T r a c ts u l a t i o n e . % C o n tig . T ra c ts In v ad ed -j5 V - .9 3 ^ 3 3 - A 3 .39 ^ 3 8 - A 3 .2 2 .3 8 .8 2 - .6 2 .3 2 .38 A 6 A 5 — A 2 •22 A l .3 0 .39 .91 - A 7 .2 9 A 7 .38 .38 .8 2 .7 3 Component, 1950 : ’ 1 2 3 ~ A a b c d e 1 . B e s id e n tia l S t a b i l i t y 2 . S t r u c t u r a l O bsolescence 3 . P am ily M a tu rity if. P ro x im ity a . Number Negro t o an b . P e rc e n t Negro U n ac ce p t- c . § Negro C o n tig . T ra c ts a b le P op- d . % Negro C o n tig . T ra c ts u l a t i o n e . % C o n tig . T ra c ts In v ad ed - .9 1 -< 3 9 - .2 8 . l b ^ 2 8 - .2 8 .2 0 .2 2 .6 2 - .5 5 .30 .5 2 .36 M -• 3 6 .2M - .3 1 •3>b .58 .9 0 - .5 7 .3 5 .5 0 AO A 7 .8>f .73 CD ------------------------------------------------------------ : --------------------- '..:......... M TABLE A .5— C ontinued Component, I9 6 0 1 2 3 4 . a b 0 d e 1* R e s id e n tia l S t a b i l i t y 2 . S t r u c t u r a l O bsolescence 3 . Pam ily M a tu rity k . P ro x im ity a . Number Negro t o an b . P e rc e n t Negro U n ac ce p t- c . # Negro C o n tig . T ra c ts ' a b le Pop- d . % Negro C o n tig . T r a c ts u l a t i o n e . % C o n tig . T ra c ts Invaded - .8 8 - .2 6 .13 .26 - .3 2 .2 0 .26 .8 6 S .50 .60 .6 k - A 3 .3 0 .38 .5 2 .5 9 .86 - .66 .36 .6 1 .5k .69 .8 2 .7 5 182 | ' TABLE A .6 ' INIEJJCOBRELATIONS A M O N G COMPONENTS, PIRST QUARTILE OP O W N E R OCCUPIED BANK Component, 19*fO 1 2 3 - ^ : a ■ V b d e 1 . B e s id e n tia l S t a b i l i t y , 2 . S t r u c t u r a l O b so lescen ce 3* Pam ily M a tu rity ^ • Proxim ity- a . Number Negro t o an b .. P e rc e n t Negro U n a c cep tr c . # Negro C o n tig . T ra c ts a b le Pop*^ d . % Negro C o n tig . T ra c ts u l a t i o n e . % C o n tig . T ra c ts Invadec < J f 2 - .9 3 ^ 2 k - .3 2 .1 2 ^ 3 0 - .3 2 .1 2 .3 0 .99 - .if 2 .16 .ifO .89 .90 - .3 8 .1 5 . .3 5 .89 .91 .7 7 - .5 0 .1 8 iff7 •80 .8 0 ,8 9 .88 ! . ( ^ g n g ^ g n t , 1950 1 2 3 ' if a b c d e 1 . B e sid e n tilfil ! ^ ^ p l i t y 2 . S t r u c t u r a l 4§|jjlllle scen e e 3 . P am ily n ativity 4 . P ro x im ity a . Number Negro to ail b * ' P e rc e n t Negro U naccept?- b» # Negro C o n tig . T ra c ts a b le Pop:? % Negro C o n tig . T r a c t? u l a t i o n %. f> C o n tig . T ra c ts Invadbd ^65^ -.9 2 ^jjf6 -.if2 .22 ^ ] f 7 -.if5 .25 .if8 .96 M -.5 0 .30 .if 9 .86 .9*f ^ .89 / • n _ _ _■ LC8X TABLE A .6— C ontinued Component9 1960 '1 . R e s id e n tia l S t a b i l i t y 2 . S t r u c t u r a l O bsolescence 13* P am ily M atu ri k . P ro x im ity a . b • P e rc e n t Negro iber Negro to an b . P e rc e n t Negro U n ac cep t- c . § Negro C o n tig . T ra c ts a b le P op- d . ^ Negro C o n tig . T ra c ts ^ C o n tig . T ra c ts In v ad ed M 00 .TABLE A .7 INTEEGORRELATIONS A M O N G COMPONENTS, SECOND QUART H E OF OWNER-OCCUPIED RANK .Component, 19**0 1 2 3 b a b c d : e 1 . R e s id e n tia l S t a b i l i t y 2 . S t r u c t u r a l O bsolescence 3 . fa m ily M a tu rity * * -• P ro x im ity a . Number Negro t o an b . P e rc e n t Negro U n ac ce p t- c . / Negro C ontig* T ra c ts a b le P op- d . % Negro C ontig* T ra c ts u l a t i o n e . $ C ontig* T ra c ts Invadec - .9 7 .5 1 - .3 0 *29 ^ 3 0 - .2 8 .27 .28 .9 7 S t .35 .8 5 .79 - • 3i .3 5 .30 .88 .83 .99 -,.^ 5 .^ 3 ‘ .b3 .7 b .8 7 .8 6 ' Component, 1950 1 2 3 b a b c d 'e 1* R e s id e n tia l S t a b i l i t y 2* S t r u c t u r a l O b so lescen ce 3* F am ily M a tu rity .. b • P ro x im ity a* Number Negro to an b . P e rc e n t Negro U n a c c e p t- c* § Negro C o n tig . T ra c ts a b le P op- d . % Negro C o n tig . T r a c ts u l a t i o n e . % C ontig* T ra c ts Invaded - . 9 ^ ^ 5 6 - .3 3 .28 ^ 3 2 -M O .3 b .69 - .5 0 .bb •b9 .7 5 .76 - M .53 •37 .62 - .7 0 .71 .6 1 - 5 2 .7 b .80 .8 2 ' S . H TABLE A .7— C ontinued ,1. R e s id e n tia l 2 . S t r u c t u r a l i3. F am ily M aturx b m P ro x im ity a i t o an Li U n ac ce p tr c i a b le Pop^ d i u l a t i o n e . r Negro Negro C o n tig . T ra c ts C o n tig . T r a c ts T ra c ts Invaded TABLE A .8 INTEfiCOEBELATIQNS A M O N G COMPONENTS, THIEL QUABTILE OP O W N EE OCCHPIEL BANK • ' • ■ - 3 i 3 , Component, 19^0 1 2 3 ■ ■ ; ■ M a b c ; d e 1 . B e s id e n tia l S t a b i l i t y 2 . S t r u c t u r a l O b so lescen ce 3 . fa m ily M aturity* H-. P ro x im ity a . Number Negro t o a n b . P e rc e n t Negro _ U n a c c e p t- c , # Negro C o n tig , T ra c ts a b le Pop- d . % Negro C o n tig , T r a c ts u l a t i o n e , % C o n tig . T ra c ts Invaded ^ 6 2 - .2 5 .23 .22 - .2 1 .23 .1 7 .9 2 - A 6 .51 *39 , •**2 A l - .3 ^ A 7 o .26 M - 9 A 6 3.96 o 3 . - A 5 A 7 . .3 7 .35 .33 .91 .8 5 ' - ' r ? • 7 ° . • » 0 - Component, 1950 1 2 3 4 ? ■ • a b c d 7 e 1 , R e s id e n tia l S t a b i l i t y 2 , S t r u c t u r a l O bsolescence 3* fa m ily M a tu rity -H-. P ro x im ity a . Number Negro to an b . P e rc e n t Negro U n accep t- c . # Negro Gonitig,. T ra c ts a b le Pop- d . % Negro-. T ra c ts u l a t i o n e . $ C o n tig . T fej|bts. Invaded ,^ 6 8 - .9 2 ^ A 3 - .2 7 .23 .26 - . A .26 .21 .86 '* " '1 - A T M r .5 2 I -5 3 5 . A l 12 7 .59 •75 -Z? o • a - .5 7 A 8 •3* .6 0 •7^ .8 1 '' ‘ r-' O C ------------ ----------------------- ------------------- ------- i-:.- . !.> • - > 3 n O TABLE A .8 — C o n t ^ i e d Component, I9 6 0 1 2 3 b a b c d e 1 . B e s id e n tia l S t a b i l i t y 2 . S t r u c t u r a l O b so lescen ce 3 . F am ily M a tu rity b , P ro x im ity a , Number Negro to an b . P e rc e n t Negro U h aceep t- c . § Negro C o n tig . T ra c ts a b le Pop- d . Negro C o n tig . T ra c ts u l a t i o n e . % C o n tig . T ra c ts Invaded - - .9 1 < 3 8 - .3 1 •20 .33 - .2 9 •26 .2 5 .9 1 -•b 7 i t S -■M •b2 .3 2 .51 .66 .69 - .5 7 .b 7 > f l .5 0 .58 .6 7 .8 7 TABLE A. 9 INTiyiCORRELATIONS A M O N G COMPONENTS, POURTH QUAEIILE OP O W N ER OCCUPIED RANK r - a t Component, 19^0 1 2 . if ' ■ 1 a b c d e 1 * R e s id e n tia l S t a b i l i t y 2 . S t r u c t u r a l O b so lescen ce 3 . P am ily M a tu rity P ro x im ity a* Number Negro . to an b . P e rc e n t Negro . , U n ac ce p t- c . # Negro C o n tig • T ra c ts a b le Pop- d . % Negro C o n tig . T r a c ts u l a t i o n e . $ C o n tig . T r a c ts Invaded - - .9 3 ^ 2 8 - .27 .09 .29 - .2 7 .10 .3 0 ,9 7 - .6 1 .22 s .5 9 ; . 3 9 ” •b2 a 0 -.**2 . l b •b2 •3^ > 0 .93 ■ - M . l b % .3 5 .78 .68 / o ' * * . o - - - • t - . ? Component, 1950 1 2 3 . . if i 1 a b c d e 1 . R e s id e n tia l S t a b i l i t y 2 . S t r u c t u r a l O bsolescence 3 • P am ily M a tu rity b . P ro x im ity a« NegTp t o an 67~Bgj|g|ffc M ^ c o U n ac cep t- or, $ T ra c ts ■ a b le Pop- d rm i . " u l a t i o n e k J ,; - .9 3 ^ 5 2 -M O .36 - .3 2 .3.6 .31 ^ 88^ k - .5 6 M7 .53 .66 - .if 2 .if 7 .38 .78 .9 2 - i6l .5 ? .56 ;62 .6 0 . .88 .8 2 1 --- -------: ---------- : —— --------------------- ----------------------------- —s —--------------------------------- —----- — — STABLE A. 9— Continued ^ • ' • • • • . • Component, i 960 1 2 3 a b 0 , d e 1 , B e s id e n tia l S t a b i l j ^ 2 . S t r u c t u r a l O bsples.G ^ce 3* F am ily M a tu rity . P ro x im ity a . Number f%g-ro U n ac cep t- c . 0 Negrb ^ ^ t i g . T ra c ts a b le P op- dii\$ s T ra c ts u l a t i o n e . # Q o n ^ g : . t r a c t s Invaded < 3 7 - .8 8 ^ 2 8 - .3 0 .11 ^ 2 9 ■*? .23 ^ 7 0 - .5 8 ■ M $ 9 1 p : > - M .26 .33 .39 $ - .6 1 3 7 .5 2 i t .&+ .76 TABLE A .1 0 INTEECOEBBiLATIONS AMONG- COMPONENTS, PIBST QUABTILB OP RENTER QGEfPIED BANK " — • 7 ? •' ‘ ■ • . . a Component, 19kO 1 2 3 . . _ k. ; a b . C ? d e 1* R e s id e n tia l S t a b i l i t y 2 . S t r u c t u r a l O b so lescen ce 3 . P am ily M a tu rity k . P ro x im ity a . Number Negro to an b . P e rc e n t Negro U n a c c e p t- c . / Negro C o n tig . T ra c ts a b le Pop- d . % Negro C o n tig . T ra e ts u l a t i o n e . # .C o n tig . T ra c ts Invaded » ^ 3 8 ^ . - .9 5 ^ 2 3 - .3 5 u ? - M i f - M .18 J k * ^85 - . k l ’ .18 = .39 ".8k ^ .8 6 .96 a ■ j ,j - .5 1 .19 .5 0 .76 .7 7 .88 .8 7 .a Component, 1950 1 2 3 k ? i a ............ ** • • ! b ■ . c ' , . ____ . , . ' 1 . i d e HL'. B e s id e n tia l Sta^SM liy 2 . S t r u c t u r a l O lfesj^^m ^oe 3 . P am ily M a ti^ * fe § K ? r, k . P ro x im ity A . . U naccept?; c . . * _ s r ^ 6 2 - .9 k A 7 * > < rW J -f -i-.- • • !: ^ ~ 3 SjEfe*!*. h. i B P l s * - , .# 6 Cii . _ • - - - — ! - ...» . | 9 : ; .5 0 ' # 9 ; *89 3 ZO 1 _ _ _ _ . ' o ~~ D •* . ^ V J - .5 0 .33 •k8 .8k .92 .9 2 - .7 k .k 7 .71 .7 2 .7 8 .8 0 .83 ■ — * ‘ TABLE A .10— Continued Component, I9 6 0 1 2 3 ' ....... ...5 ..... . " ■ a b c d e 1* Besidential Stability 2* Structural Obsolescence 3 . Family Maturity Proximity a* Number Negro to an b. Percent Negro Unaccept* c. # Negro Contig. Tracts able Pop* d. $ Negro Contig. Tracts ulation e. f> Contig. Tracts Invaded C M C M / r l - M •25 .5 * - . 5 2 •28 •55 .9 7 -.5** .2 8 .58 .9 ^ »93 0 9 -.5** .3 2 .5 5 .8 9 .9 5 .9 2 * •7 8 .* 7 .7 7 .7 7 .83 .8 3 .8 6 A.U . ■ ■ . I M B R S Q B B f f i M W m 4HBB& SECOND QUAMJUiS W ^ ^ R Oee.UPIEDmM . . w . - . - - - - - • ^ Component 9 1^0 r 1 2 ■ 3 i i t a b C d e 1. Besidential Stability 2. Structural Obsolescence 3. Pamily Maturity — *t. Proximity a. Number N^gpo to an b. PeTCOfit Unaccept- c../ Negro 06Il|lg. ^racts able Pop- d. % Negro Gc^p||U ©?acts ulation e. ^Contig*. O^raStsfeaded ^-v60 _ ; ^ 2 -27 -.21 ' M -.32 .26 .28 ] .93 ? .91 o : o 7 . . -.2 8 .23 .23 .95 .92 .99 -M il .83 .82 • § 9 .87 p •v ; • _ O • Component, 1950 1 2 ' ■ ' 3 ^ ■ ■ . ' - ■ T T ' - ° h ■ ■ a r b > c : d e 1, Besidential Stability 2* Structural Obsolescence 3. Pamily Maturity h m Proximity a. Humber Negro to an b. Percent Negro Unaccept- e. / Negro Gontig. Xracts able Pop- d. % Negro C o n tig . tracts ulation e. $ Contig. tracts beaded -.8 0 -m .62 .3& . - " , ' ^ A r- ^ 2 s • * £ i * 9 6 ' b j o i • c P -.^7 .39 .51 .91 .89 i- r to >3- M .90 .93 .91 -.70 .67 .72 .78 .83 .85 Q o \ TABLE A.11— Continued Component) i 960 - .9 5 1 . R e s id e n tia l S t a b i l i t y 2 . S t r u c t u r a l O bsolescence 3 . fa m ily M a tu rity +. P ro x im ity a* Number Negro b . P e rc e n t Negro .61 .5 2 .7 0 to an b . P e rc e n t Negro U n ac cep t- c . # Negro C o n tig . T ra c ts a b le P op- d . % Negro C o n tig . T ra c ts u l a t i o n e . % C o n tig . T ra c ts Invaded O 0 ' 5 © c ’O ° .o ' 0 TAS&E A.12 ! ■ » INTERCQRBEMTIOHS AMONG COMPONENTS, THIRD QUARTILE OP RENTER OCCUPIED BANK . o . . . . . . - ; / O . Component) 1940 1 * 2 3 4 f a b ! . i r - . . C ? d Q e 1* R e s id e n tia l S t a b i l i t y 2 . S t r u c t u r a l O b so lescen ce 3 • P am ily M a tu rity 4 . P ro x im ity a* Number Negro t o an b . R e s e n t Negro U n ac cep t- c . $ ifegro C o n tig . T ra c ts a b le Pop- d v ^ f p i J D C o n tig . T r a c ts ^ u l a t i o n e . # C lntA g. T ra c ts Invadec ^ 6 1 - .2 8 •22 • .24 ■^•22 .1 7 .18 M - .4 6 : .4 i .38 i .38 .3 5 - .3 5 *35 * - g 0 *36 ?.34 «.97 " © - .4 6 .3 9 .38 .3 2 •£9 .8 7 .8 3 ' " “ . • . . • a 0 Component» 19 50 .1 2 3 —r^l"- ■ ~ o . - " ; .4 a b r > ' ~ \ • C b d / e 1 . R e s id e n tia l S ta M p £ ^ 2 . S t r u c t u r a l O b so lescen ce 3 . P am ily M a tu rity 4 . P ro x im ity ft. W b e r E t o o t o a n b . P e ^ ^ j t U n ac cep t- q . # Tfegyo C o n tig . T ra c ts a b le Pop- d . $ Neg^o C o n tig . T r a c ts u l a t i o n e . % Q o ltig . T r a c ts Invadec < ^ 7 2 - . 9 0 ^ 4 5 - .2 2 .10 ^ 2 ? - .1 1 . m * 40 .5 o i k k .20 .5o .61 ; .5 2 0 ’ i - .4 9 f .3 7 > .46 'j © .43 .81 .75 - .6 4 .4 7 •61 .4 2 . .63 .7 2 .8 6 .o' I — 1 o, N O ■ » « , • ' VSl JCAEfcE A. 12— Contimed ; 5 . ' ' V • ", ' . . . D ‘ -P Component, I9 6 0 1 2 3 ' • 0 if ’ a . b > 0 c d e 1 . B e s id e n tia l S t a b i l i t y 2 . S t r u c t u r a l O bsole sco n ce 3 . Fam ily M a tu rity if. P ro x im ity a s Bomber Negro t o an b . P e rc e n t Negro U n ac cep t- c . # Negro GontFig. T r a c ts a b le Pop- d . % Negro G o n tig . T ra c ts u l a t i o n e . % C o n tig . T ra c ts Invaded < ^68 - . 9 2 - r ! 6 .d6 - .20 ' i | . i . 1 i - . 3 ^ .28=? . 2 7 '% .2 7 ? J ' O ' O 5 , O 3 3 1 - .if 2 .18 .if8 © .6 2 .ifl - .if 8 .38 .if2 .3 0 .6 6 .6 7 -.6 if .if8 .6 1 .3 1 .5 5 .6 7 .8 k -J ' O TABIiB A.13 ? INTERCORRELATIONS A M O N G - COMPONENTS, FOURTH QUARTILE OF RENTER OCCUPIED RANK • » ' • - • . I ; • -Component, 19^-0 1 2 3 -iV" - ■ b ' a ' - b e d • e ' 1 . R e s id e n tia l S t a b i l i t y 2 . S t r u c t u r a l O bsolescence 3 . F am ily M a tu rity i*t« P ro x im ity a . Number Negro t o an . b . P e rc e n t Negro U n ac cep t- c . / Negro C o n tig . T ra c ts a b le Pop- d . % Negro C o n tig . T ra c ts ; u l a t i o n e . % C o n tig . T ra c ts Invaded - .9 3 ^ < 3 3 > ^ 2 .18 ^ . 3 8 ~ .b l ’.23 •36 . ^ 8 2 o < a o - .6 8 ^ 5 3 ^ - A 9 .33 Jf2 M .56 .8 8 - .*f 3 •27 .*fl .39 .38 .8*f .&b . ' o • • ' - : o • > o i '' C om ponent, 1950 1 2 3 . . 0 ■ . If a b c d : e 1 . R e s id e n tia l S t a b i l i t y 1 2 • S t r u c t u r a l O bsolescence: 3 . F am ily M a tu rity t . P ro x im ity a . Number Negro to an b . P e rc e n t Negro U n accep t- c . / Negro C o n tig . T ra c ts a b le Pop- d . % Negro C o n tig . T r a c ts u l a t i o n e . % C o n tig • T ra c ts Invaded c ^ 6 l i - .9 0 ^ 3 j t A .2 9 .13 ^ . 2 8 - .If 2 .2 6 .3 5 .82 • 3 -.*f2 .18 M .23 .26 - M .28 .3*f .28 A 8 .77 - .6 1 .36 .5 6 .3 ^ .59 .7 1 TABLE A .13— C o n tin u ed Component j l . B e s id e n tia l S t a b i l i t y 2 . S t r u c t u r a l O bsolescence 3 . F am ily M a tu rily f . P ro x im ity a . Number Ne, to an b . P e rc e n t S < U n accep t- c . § Negro Q a b le P op- d . % Negro C1 _______ u l a t i o n e . % C o n t i g .:T r a c ts Invaded - .8 9 .3 2 M. ,21 22 80 T ra c ts T ra c ts vo 0 0 o > i ''- 1 , ‘ BIBLIOGfiAPHY 1 x - ,'i . ' * ■ > II ; I # ■ ; 199 BIBLIOGRAPHY P u b lic Documents H ousing an d Home F in an ce A gency. Our N onwhite P o p u la tio n an d I t s H oueing:_ _ The Changes betw een 1950 and l | o 0 . 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Creator Mcquiston, John Mark (author)

Core Title Social Components Of Housing Cost In The Western Metropolis

Degree Doctor of Philosophy

Degree Program Sociology

Publisher University of Southern California (original), University of Southern California. Libraries (digital)

Tag OAI-PMH Harvest,sociology, ethnic and racial studies

Language English

Contributor Digitized by ProQuest (provenance)

Advisor Van Arsdol, Maurice D., Jr. (committee chair), Labovitz, Sanford I. (committee member), Meyers, Charles Edward (committee member), Sabagh, Georges (committee member)

Permanent Link (DOI) https://doi.org/10.25549/usctheses-c18-437411

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