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A Preliminary Study Of The Dimensions Of Future Time Perspective

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A Preliminary Study Of The Dimensions Of Future Time Perspective

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Content PRELIMINARY STUDY OF THE DIMENSIONS
OF FUTURE TIME PERSPECTIVE
Robert "'Kastenbaum
A Dissertation Presented to the
FACULTY OF THE GRADUATE SCHOOL
UNIVERSITY OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
In Partial Fulfillment of the
Requirements for the Degree
DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY
Psychology
August 19^9
U NIVERSITY O F S O U T H E R N C A LIFO R N IA
G R A D U A T E S C H O O L
U N I V E R S I T Y P A R K
L O S A N G E L E S 7 . C A L I F O R N I A
This dissertation, written by
Ro_b_ert___Ja_£_ _Ka. s_t enbaum..........
under the direction of A . i a . . . Dissertation Com
mittee, and approved by all its members, has
been presented to and accepted by the Graduate
School, in partial fulfillment of requirements
for the degree of
D O C T O R O F P H I L O S O P H Y
Date.......... A^sfc..l?59
DISSERTATI COMMITTEE
Chairman
ACKN OWLEDGMENTS
The writer is indebted to Professor J. P. Guilford,
University of Southern California, and P. Harold Giedt,
Ph. D., Sepuveda Veterans Administration Hospital, for
their valuable and generous assistance at various phases
of this project.
TABLE OP CONTENTS
Page
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ii
LIST OP TABLES v
Chapter
I. BACKGROUND OP THE PROBLEM 1
In.tr oduction
Theoretical Viewpoints
II. RELEVANT .RESEARCH 10
Studies Involving Future Time
Perspective
Summary of Theory and Research
A Logical Analysis of the Assumed
FTP Variable
III. EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN AND PROCEDURE . . . . . 30
Recapitulation of the Problem
Experimental Design
The Subject Population
Measuring Instruments
Procedure
Scoring Techniques
Results of Test Intercorrelations
Summary from the Inspection of the
Test Intercorrelations
Results of Factor Analysis
Summary of Pactor-Analytic Findings
Comparison of Intercorrelational and
Factor-Analytic Results
Implications of the Present Results for
Past Studies Involving Future Time
Perspective
IV. RESULTS 1* 2
V. DISCUSSION
63
Chapter
Page
Limitations of the Present Study and
Suggestions for Additional Research
VI. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS....................... 8£
LIST OP REFERENCES.................................... 90
CHAPTER I
BACKGROUND OP THE PROBLEM
Introduction
Living organisms swim forward in a sea of
time, and those with the best "distance recep
tors," i.e., with the best symbolic skills, will
almost certainly have an edge in the struggle
for existence (37, P- 117) •
The philosopher, the sociologist, the physiologist
all have an interest in understanding how man goes beyond
the immediate here-and-now of his physical environment.
In his epistemological, metaphysical, and symbolic studies
the philosopher tries to provide a conceptual basis for
the curious phenomenon of a creature who, though palpably
limited by concensual time-space coordinates, nevertheless
wanders through realms of private time-space that do not .
necessarily obey the dictates of external clock or yard
stick. From his vantage point the sociologist observes
the interplay of individual and group, and attempts to
determine the impact of the community's feelings and
beliefs regarding the future upon those of the citizen.
The physiologist, for his part, is just beginning to
gather information regarding the bodily mechanisms,
notably cerebral, that function in long-range as con
trasted with short-range behavior patterns.
When It comes to investigating the "distance
receptors’* that enable people to project themselves sym
bolically into the future, the psychologist has his
special interests as well. He wants to know how cognitive
abilities, motives, emotional conflicts, and. the like con
verge to shape the anticipation of future events, and how
this anticipatory function itself serves to alter ongoing
patterns of behavior. But aside from particular problems
he may wish to investigate, the psychologist can also con
tribute to the studies of his colleagues in other
disciplines by developing lucid formulations and effective
measurements of the variables involved in what shall be
called here ’ ’future time perspective” (FTP),
The primary task here is the logical and empirical
analysis of FTP. We shall attempt to show that (1) the
concept of FTP plays a major role, both explicitly and
implicitly, in theoretical and empirical approaches to
understanding personality; (2) there is a logical struc
ture implicit in the construct of FTP that has never been
clearly formulated; and that (3) the empirical test of
this logical structure can contribute to an improved
evaluation of FTP as a variable in human functioning.
Secondarily, we will explore a few of the possible rela
tionships between intelligence, personality, and FTP.
Theoretical Viewpoints
What is future time perspective? This question
3
should have prior hold on our attention before examining
ideas concerning the role of FTP in total personality
functioning. Yet, although it is our major purpose to
arrive at a meaningful formulation of FTP, we shall tem
porarily be somewhat vague about its definition. For the
moment we shall intend by FTP simply the general notion
that a person can be described as more or less oriented
toward or interested in the future. This view is consis
tent with the manner in which the FTP variable has been
treated in most of the approaches considered below. Fol
lowing the survey of relevant theory and research
attention will be focused on the logical structure of the
FTP construct. In this way we hope to derive a picture
of the status of previous thinking about the ’ ’ psychologi-
cal future,n and thus be able to indicate clearly the
possible advantages accruing from a closer analysis of the
concept.
Lewin has suggested that the life space of the neo
nate may be described as a rather poorly differentiated
field in which the time dimension has yet to become impor
tant (33)• The immediate situation rules the infant;
future events or expectations do not exist. Gradually
the child begins to enlarge his frame of reference,
becoming aware that experience extends beyond the present j
1
moment. As the individual continues to mature he gains an j
increasing appreciation for future possibilities and, con
sequently, these become increasingly important in deter
mining his attitudes and actions.
The transition from childhood to adolescence has
been regarded as the occasion for a marked shift in time
perspective. Concluding his study of The Growth of Logical
Thinking from Childhood to Adolescence (38)* Piaget
declares
. . . the adolescent differs from the child above all
in that he thinks beyond the present. The adolescent
is the individual who commits himself to possibi-
lities--although we certainly do not mean to deny
that his commitment begins in real-life situations.
In other words, the adolescent is the individual who
begins to build ' ’systems'’ or mtheories," in the largest
sense of the term.
Proceeding further along the life span we encounter
the possibility that the sense of futurity may not neces
sarily mean the same thing to the same individual at
different times. Pressey and ftuhlen (i|0) suggest that the
young person sees his future as lying ahead, while the
middle-aged person feels the future to be upon him, for
good or evil, and the aged person tends to glance back
wards in quest of his "future." These investigators imply
that profound reorientations in a person's attitude toward
life can be at least partially understood in terms of his ;
shifting time perspective. Kastenbaum (28) has proposed
that knowledge of a person's conscious and unconscious I
attitudes toward the remote future can be of value in j
5
predicting how that person will function in his later years.
It is suggested that a person's structuring of his future
constitutes a series of field-like phenomena which will
seem to "act upon him” as though ”from the outside” when
he reaches in objective chronology the particular "sub
jective time-field” that he established years before.
For a systematic treatment of FTP in the develop
mental process Freud remains the basic source. Although
he never offered a thoroughly integrated presentation of
his view on this subject, it is not difficult to construct
one from his "metapsychological” writings, notably the last
chapter of The Interpretation of Dreams (17, pp. 509-622),
and "Formulations Regarding the Two Principles in Mental
Functioning” (18, pp. 13“21). A more elaborate formu
lation of Freud's conceptions can be found in the work of
Rapaport (1+1).
What Freud describes is essentially a process of
progressive internalization of experience that sees the
present-oriented, instinctually driven infant become the
future-oriented, socially adaptable adult. The capacity
for developing a future time perspective and the need that
provokes it into operation are both absent in the infant.
This youngest human being responds to its bodily needs by j
a restless discharge of motor activity. Eventually these j
needs are met (e. g., by contact with the breast), and ;
6
the activity subsides. The baby now "knows” that there is
something in the world which will relieve its tensions,
: and the "satisfying object" will be reproduced in hallu
cination when it is absent in reality. This tendency to
have the wish become the wish-fulfiIlment, to bring the
desired state of affairs into subjective existence by a
reality-detached fantasy is part of what Freud meant by
the "primary process." Important as this formulation was
for the foundation of psychoanalysis, Freud recognized
that much attention would also have to be given to the
"reality principle" and to the steps mediating between the
two. Years later Hartmann pointed out in his influential
monograph (22) that
. . . the reality principle . . . implies something
essentially new, namely the familiar function of
anticipating the future, orienting our actions accor
ding to it, and correctly relating means and ends to
each other. It is an ego function and, surely, an
adaptation process of the highest significance (22,
p. i+3) -
The crucial step between primary and secondary pro
cesses involved the enforced delay of motor activity, or
deferment of immediate gratification. Freud*s own state
ment is the most trenchant.
A new function was now entrusted to motor dis
charge, which under the supremacy of the pleasure-
principle had served to unburden the mental apparatus
of accretions of stimuli, and in carrying out this
task had sent innervations into the interior of the
body (mien, expressions of affect); it was now
employed in the appropriate alteration of reality.
It was converted into action.
Restraint of motor discharge (of action) had now
become necessary, and was provided by means of the
process of thought, which was developed from ideation..
Thought was endowed with qualities which made it pos
sible for the mental apparatus to support increased
tension during a delay in the process of discharge.
It is essentially an experimental way of acting,
accompanied by displacement of smaller quantities of
cathexis together with less expenditure (discharge)
of them , . • (18, p. 16).
These concepts were not completely unknown to aca
demic psychology at the time of Freud’s writing, nor have
they been neglected since (e. g., vicarious trial-and-
error). Yet their integration into the far-ranging
psychoanalytic approach with its ambitious goal of providing
a comprehensive explanation of human behavior gives these
formulations special interest.
The notion of future orientation has appeared in
many other theoretical contexts. In fact it would be dif
ficult to discover a model of behavior that does not
somehow introduce this concept. We can note such uses as
Adler’s ’’life style” (1), Tolman’s ’ ’expectancies” (50),
Hull’s ’ ’fractional antedating goal response” (23), and
Bull’s "goal orientation” (5). Still other investigators
have emphasized that a concern for the future consequences
of present action is an integral part of the problem
solving process (Ij., 26), and clinicians have commented
upon the defensive use sometimes made of the future as a
device for escaping direct encounter with problems of the
moment (9, 12).
Provocative hypotheses have been offered from the
standpoint of cultural influences, Prank (16) has con
tended that social changes during the past three hundred
years, particularly under the impact of scientific reve
lations, have radically interfered with the time
perspective not only of individuals but of society in
general. He attempted to show that contemporary man has .
the responsibility and opportunity for creating a new time
perspective. Psychology can help society meet this
challenge by freeing man from ignorance regarding his own
nature, crippling subserviance to unrealistic concepts of
past and future, and necessity for denying his basic
needs. More recently, McClelland (35) has proposed that
the interaction of the "Protestant ethic" (after Weber,
52) and industrialized society produces a characteristic
emphasis upon the future. This eye upon the future with
a high evaluation on the achievements and "progress" to
come is contrasted with oriental and mystical preferences
for the past and present.
The ideas mentioned so far were generally not pro
posed within the context of an explicit research plan
or report. Nevertheless some of these views, particularly
those of Freud and Frank, have been credited by investi
gators as contributing to their studies. As we now turn
to a survey of empirical work in this area many points of
9
contact will be discovered between the theoretical views
sketched above, and experimental hypotheses and findings.
CHAPTER II
RELEVANT RESEARCH
Studies Involving Future Time Perspective
In a rough sense, FTP refers to all the thought,
feelings, and actions of a person which imply expectations
of future events. Regarded in this most general manner,
FTP is an aspect of all human functioning— a rather broad
area to reviewl In practice, however, FTP has come to be
limited to an outlook on the future which is measured
through verbal operations. Directly or indirectly, a
person is asked to exhibit his orientation to the future
in such a manner that the experimenter can unambiguously
treat the response as an index of FTP, something which
presumably would be more difficult to do if inferences
had to be made from nonverbal behavior. This restriction
of the subject matter will be respected for the purposes
of the present study; but it is not intended to imply that
the sort of experimental operations now in use necessarily
will remain as the only or best approach to understanding
FTP. It should also be noted that research into other
temporal aspects of human behavior is not being considered
here. Fraisse (15) and Cohen (6) have pointed out the
great difficulties involved in trying to integrate these
scattered topics, and Kastenbaum (27) has proposed that
11
more systematic investigations be conducted in each area
before a general integration is assayed. This study is
in fact intended as an implementation of the latter sug
gestion.
Israeli was one of the first to subject ’ ’ future
outlook” to empirical investigation. He employed a
variety of techniques, chiefly of his own invention,
including among his subjects a sampling of unemployed
laborers, college students (2 I j . ), and mental patients (25>).
He devised an inventory consisting of items concerning
attitudes toward the past, present, and future. These
items were quite heterogeneous, and were analyzed sepa
rately rather than combined to give formal scores. A
list of prepared questions also served as the basis for
structured interviews he conducted with the mental hos
pital population (2f>).
Another of Israeli’s techniques was the future auto
biography method. He would ask people to describe their
lives at various points in the future (e. g., one year
from now, five years from now). The actual procedure of
administration and interpretation varied somewhat from
time to time. Generally, the Ss wrote down their own
responses and Israeli tried to fit them into such cate
gories as "wishes and aversions” or "limited outlook.”
The protocols ranged from very brief descriptions to
12
lengthy documents.
Israeli indicated by example that a construct as
gross as the (psychological) future should be approached
from more than a single standpoint. Moreover, he tried to
relate his findings to significant sociological and per
sonality variables. It is further to his credit that his
methods and concepts partially adumbrated later develop
ments .
But despite these contributions, Israelii pioneering
work suffers from many defects which make it difficult to
incorporate his data into the current state of knowledge.
Briefly reported, these shortcomings include: (a) failure
to present data regarding age, sex, intelligence, or
education; (b) unenlightening use of percentage statistics
which raise more questions than they answer; (c) employment
of categories which overlap each other, leave many res
ponses unclassified, and are not related to one another
either logically or statistically; (d) lack of apprecia
tion for the limitations of his measuring instruments and
of his statistical procedures in connection with the con-
\ p
elusions drawn; (3) clinical naivete in making use of
statements provided by the mental hospital and of inter
pretation of patient protocols.
The most successful of his variables resembles
closely what will be discussed below as "future extension."
He found that many schizophrenic patients showed a
’ ’limited pattern," meaning, as we would formulate it
today, that the length of the conceptualized future time
span was very short. This "future extension" variable
appears to cut across several of Israeli's original cate
gories, including "future outlook," "planning," and
"wishes and aversions," but in none of these cases was it
the only variable that seemed to be involved. Despite
the shortcomings noted above, Israeli's data did seem to
confirm the common observations that "melancholics are
more downhearted about the future" (25, P» 116) and that
paranoid delusional systems are projected in the para
noid's Interpretations of the future.
The next experimental approach was based upon a
combination of sociological and psychological-developmental
considerations. LeShan (32) suggested that longer tension-
relief sequences are found in the life of middle-class as
compared with lower-class American families. He specu
lated on the relationship between "time orientation" and
methods of child-rearing, attempting to apply psychoanal
ytic formulations. In particular he noted that lower-class;
children, with many shifting adults in their lives,
probably find it difficult to build up a "strong superego"
based upon acceptable models for identification. This
lack of opportunity to internalize conventional middle-eQass;
1U
values prevents the child from learning to renounce present
pleasure for future gains.
In his study LeShan introduced a simple technique
that has since proven of value in a number of other
investigations. He asked his subjects (117 children,
ages 8-10) to , ! Tell me a story.’ 1 These productions were
examined in terms of the period of time covered by the
action of the story. He found a significant difference
between the length of the time covered in stories told by
lower-class and middle-class children, the latter pro
ducing stories with a longer time-range. LeShan concluded
that, "If one accepts the hypothesis that in unstructured
situations of this sort, individuals tend to project the
world as they see it into the stimulus, then our major
hypothesis of different time orientations in different
social classes is strengthened" (32, p. $91).
LeShan*s line of reasoning later received some
independent support from an investigation by Fisher and
Fisher (13). Attitudes toward parents were assessed from
TAT and Rorschach responses, the results pointing to a
direct relationship between conceiving one’s parents as
dominant and placing a high value on time.
These two experiments thus gave some promise of
empirically confirming and extending the psychoanalytic-
cultural position. If sociological variables such as
15
socioeconomic status are related to particular patterns of
child-rearing, and if these patterns are expected to pro
duce differential tolerances for frustration on the basis
of psychodynamic theory, then it might be predicted that
both sets of variables (socioeconomic and child—rearing)
would be related to time perspective. Positive findings
would tend to support the sociological and psychoanalytic
formulations. A third study, however, yielded discordant
results. Ellis and her colleagues (10) concerned them
selves with LeShan1s conclusion that lower-class children
have less frustration tolerance and shorter time-goal
orientations. They declared that ’ ’Such a personality
difference between the members of these two social classes
would be a fact of tremendous social-psychological signi
ficance” (10, p. llj.6).
Unwilling to accept LeShan*s reasoning without fur
ther evidence, these investigators explored the relation
ship between "action-time span” of stories told by
children and the children's tolerance for frustration
(as rated by judges who had four weeks of daily contact
with the Ss). The Ss x>rere sixty boys and girls (ages 7-9) ,
at a summer day camp. The children were thought to be
!
socioeconomically homogeneous ("chiefly upper middle !
i
class”). Uo significant relationship was found between
the ratings of frustration tolerance and the "action-time :
16
span” of the stories, Ellis concludes that
What the relationship between social class and action
time span of stories indicates may be either a
trivial or an important interclass distinction. In
view of the data here presented, however, it cannot
be regarded as a demonstration of a relationship
between social class and frustration tolerance as the
latter is conventionally defined. Since such a
relationship would be of great significance to social
and psychological workers alike, the fact that it
has not been shown to exist cannot be overstressed
(10, p. 1Z+7 ) -
Unfortunately, the frustration-tolerance-social-
class problem as it relates to time perspective has not
been further elucidated since the studies of LeShan (32)
and Ellis (10). But LeShan*s story-telling technique has
been employed in modified form in the study of several
other research problems.
Barndt and Johnson (2) followed LeShan*s study with
an inquiry into ’ 'Time orientation in delinquents." They
replaced LeShan* s instructions to ftTell me a story" with
a standard ’ ’story root” which the Ss were to elaborate
into complete stories. Twenty-six delinquent boys were
compared with a matched control group of nondelinquents.
A single story root was employed: "About 3:00 o' clock
one bright, sunny afternoon in May two boys were walking
along a street near the edge of town ..." The subjects
were asked to continue this story, and finish it any way
that they preferred. If no time interval was explicitly
mentioned by the subject he was asked, "How long was this
17
from the start of the story?”
There was complete agreement among the three judges
who scored the stories (i.e., placed the time intervals
into pre-established categories). Barndt and Johnson
slightly modified LeShan*s scoring categories to avoid
the overlapping of some categories in the latter*s pro
cedure. The six categories established by Barndt and
Johnson have been followed by several subsequent investi
gators. The categories were: under one hour; one hour
or more but less than five hours; five hours but less
than twelve hours; twelve hours but less than one week;
one week but less than three months; three months or more.
The delinquent boys produced stories with signifi
cantly shorter average time spans than did the control
subjects. The subjects had been matched for age, IQ,
range, and socioeconomic status (occupational source of
income, type of dwelling, and dwelling area).
These investigators were inclined to the opinion that
a person is likely to be future oriented if he feels that
a valued goal is accessible to him, while a belief that
the goal is beyond his reach restricts him to a present
orientation. This view is in line with hypotheses advanced
by Lewin (33) s whom Barndt and Johnson credit for having
formulated the notion.
Wallace (50) made the next application of the
18
story-completion technique, investigating the time per
spective of hospitalized, schizophrenics. But he also paid
some attention to the nature of the variable under con
sideration.
Concepts such as time sense, time orientation,
time perspective, and time perception are employed
interchangeably, often in the same investigation, or
are utilized in such a manner that no clear idea of
the intended meaning is given, either in conceptual
or operational terms.
To eliminate this lack of rigor in the defini
tion of temporal concepts, the study to be reported
focuses upon one segment of the temporal dimension,
the future. To restrict further the range of temporal
phenomena to be examined, attention is devoted to
only one aspect of handling conceptions of the future,
termed future time perspective. . . . this concept is
defined in the present context as the timing and
ordering of personalized future events. In a further
attempt to delineate more precisely those aspects of
future time perspective to be investigated, two hereto
fore unspecified, although often implied concepts,
extension and coherence, are also introduced. The
former is defined as the length of the future time
span which is conceptualized. Coherence is utilized
to refer to the degree of organization of the events
in the future time span (50, p. 22^.0).
Wallace devised experimental operations to implement
his new concepts. The story-completion technique remained
in the repertoire as one measure of extension. He used
four story roots , the first two of which involved situa
tions in which the temporal dimension was explicitly
mentioned, while the other two were not structured in
regard to time. Extension was also scored from a task
which required the subject to ’ ’ Tell me 10 events that
refer to things that may happen to you during the rest
19
of your life." After each response, the examiner asked,
"And how old might you be when that happened?" The range
of years between the S»s actual age and the most distant
event given by him was taken as the extension score.
The coherence variable likewise was approached from
two standpoints. Following the administration of inter
vening tests, E asked S to arrange the ten cards on which
events had previously been written "in the order in which
they might occur." These two orderings--by age and by
sequence of occurrence— were correlated to yield a coher
ence score. A similar procedure was followed for the
other measurement of coherence. The S was given fifteen
statements describing common life-events, instructed to
tell how old he might be when each event happened to him.
Later he was asked to arrange the fifteen events in the
order of their probable occurrence, and the correlation
between the two orderings was used as the coherence score.
Wallace seemed to assume that a person whose "future" is
very "coherent" would give precisely the same ordering
under both conditions, any deviation from perfect repro
duction constituting a relative defect in organization of
his personal future.
The results indicated that schizophrenics differed
significantly from their controls on both the extension
and coherence variables. The two measures of coherence
correlated .88, and differentiated between long-term
schizophrenics and normal controls, but not between the
latter group and short-term schizophrenic patients.
Wallace did not correlate or average together the two
sources of extension scores, believing it would be diffi
cult to handle the variety of dissimilar time units given
as responses. The direction of the differences was not
the major concern of Wallace, but his results indicated
that the schizophrenics had a shorter future time span
(extension) the contents of which were less accurately
organized (coherence) than was the case with the normals.
An incidental finding is of interest to us. The
scores from the two temporally-structured story roots
covaried highly but were only moderately related to the
scores from the temporally unstructured story roots. In
fact, while the unstructured roots significantly differen
tiated between schizophrenics and normals, the structured
ones did not. Wallace suggested that schizophrenics may
be able to function well in situations where the external
demands are easily understood, as in the structured
stories, becoming anxious and disorganized only when
exposed to unfamiliar, unstructured situations which
require a definite course of action. "The resulting emo
tional disturbance interfered with optimal functioning to
such a degree that the magnitudes of the future time span
21
presented by the schizophrenic patients were significantly
shorter than those given by the controls” (£0, P* 2l|3).
Such detailed attention has been given to Wallace's
study because it is a highly relevant effort to clarify
the nature of the time variables that are being applied
to an ever increasing variety of problems. After we have
reviewed other research applications the problem of FTP
and its measurement will be examined at greater length.
Recently Teahan used the structured story roots in
an investigation of optimism and academic achievement (I 48).
He found that highly optimistic people and those with
outstanding academic records tended to have a more exten
sive future time perspective. He suggested that "...
low achievers have a short-range or emergency type of
future orientation, while high achievers have a long-range
or foresightful type" (I4. 8 , p. 380). This interpretation
appears to be quite consistent with Bull's "motor atti
tude" account of goal-oriented behavior under frustrating
circumstances (£), although this formulation was apparently
not known to Teahan. Correlations between time perspec
tive and I. Q. (California Test of Mental Maturity) were
very low in this group of sixty junior-high-school boys.
The relation of time orientation to interpersonal
behavior, again in studies employing the story-completion j
i
technique, was explored by Davids and Parenti (7)« Three
22
groups of eleven-year-old boys were studied in different
environmental settings: residential psychiatric treatment
center, summer camp, and public school. Friendship pat
terns were assessed, and staff personnel made ratings on
general emotional adjustment and several specific traits.
Although emotionally unstable children showed more unstable
friendship patterns, their story completions were not more
present-oriented (going against the prediction). With
normal children there was no association between time
orientation and the measures of interpersonal relations.
All of the Davids-Parenti groups were more present-oriented
than the seventeen-year-old nondelinquents studied by
Barndt and Johnson (2), but were not statistically sig
nificantly different from the latter investigators *
delinquent Ss.
Davids and Parenti discerned a tendency for high
future orientation to be associated with the personality
traits of pessimism and resentment. They noted that
1 1 . . . the better adjusted children tended to be more
present-oriented than those judged as less well-adjusted
emotionally.1 1 Attempting to explain these unexpected
results, they suggested !
. . . that a high degree of future orientation in j
fantasy indicates that the child is dissatisfied in j
the present and is investing a good deal of his I
energy in fantasy about the future. In other words, j
children who find their everyday lives unsatisfying
and who try to escape their present situation by means I
of fantasies about the future may well be more dis
turbed, while the more stable children invest more of
their energy and thoughts in present life situations
(7, P *30i|) •
They also speculated that it may not be until early
adolescence that a person is normally concerned more with
the future than with the present.
We would like to comment in passing that the concept
of "present-orientation" doubtless requires as careful an
investigation as does "future-orientation." In the study
cited above, "present-orientation” actually turns out to
be simply the absence of a lengthy future extension.
However, it should be possible to conceptualize and
measure concern-with-present in a more thorough and posi
tive manner. Until data of the latter sort are available
we perhaps should be cautious in our dealings with con
clusions regarding "present-orientation."
Ennis (11) and Mitardy (35) are among those who have
observed that time orientation appears to change with the
age of the Individual. Lharaon, G-oldstone, and Boardman
(3^) gathered data to support this belief, finding that
older children used a longer time span in their story-
completions than did younger children.
Another line of approach appears to have not a great
deal in common with "future time perspective" as this
concept has been employed in the studies reported above.
Yet the work of Knapp and his associates (29) is important
2k
in the revised analysis of FTP offered in the next section.
Working within the framework of McClelland^ per
sonality theory (35), these investigators explored dif
ferences in time imagery in relation to the achievement
motive (n Ach.). Seventy-three male ■undergraduates were
given a standard series of Thematic Apperception pictures
which were scored for n Ach. in the manner prescribed by
McClelland. The Ss were then administered the Time
Metaphor Test (TMT) which required them to select images
or metaphors of time which seemed most appropriate or
pleasing. There was a significant positive correlation
between n Ach. and preference for dynamic, directional
time imagery. Similar results were obtained for an adjec
tive check-list test (29), but the TMT yielded the
stronger findings. This instrument will be considered in
more detail below.
Summary of Theory and Research
From relatively independent standpoints Freud (17),
Lewin (33), and Piaget (38) have advanced the notions that
FTP (1) is a developmental achievement which (2) performs
crucial cognitive and affective functions for the indivi
dual. All these theorists regard FTP as an important
part of the process which transforms the infant into a
distinctively human being. Others (i|0, 28) have suggested
that significant changes in FTP may occur at later points
25
along the lifeline, and still others (16, 35) have noted
that cultural practices and beliefs make an impact upon
the way a person construes his future. Concepts per
taining to "expectations' 1 or "goal orientations" also
appear in numerous other theories of behavior (5 , 23,
50, 1 ).
Investigators have explored FTP as a variable in
schizophrenia (25, 51), social class (32), interpersonal
attitudes (13), frustration tolerance (10), delinquency
(2), optimism and academic achievement (iq9), emotional
stability (7 ), maturation (3k) > and need to achieve (29).
Results tend to support the picture of FTP being posi
tively related to higher (as compared to lower) socio
economic class, need to achieve, achievement,
nonschizophrenia, nondelinquency, and chronological
maturity. More direct tests of FTP as a factor in high
frustration tolerance and emotional stability have failed
to support the hypotheses. All but two of these studies
employed the story-telling or story-completion technique.
Only one study (5l) gave explicit attention to the nature
of the variables being employed.
A Logical Analysis of the Assumed FTP Variable
So far FTP has been dealt with in an uncritical
manner, as though this variable possessed an evident,
unambiguous meaning. However, in view of the significant
26
theoretical and empirical uses being made of FTP it is well
to subject this concept to a closer examination. Our
basic question shall be: is FTP a relatively unitary
variable? An affirmative answer would tend to support
past work in this area, in which investigators have simply
assumed that a single notion ("perspective,” "orientation,”
etc.) suffices to account for a person’s stance toward
the future. But if FTP resolves itself into a number of
dimensions which vary independently of each other, then
this heterogeneity must be taken into consideration to
avoid misleadingly general conclusions. For example,
should the latter alternative be the case we might find
that different mental abilities are related to different
aspects of FTP, that the same prevails for personality
characteristics, and that the relative importance of
intellectual and personality attributes varies from one
facet of FTP to the next.
Most experimental approaches to FTP actually have
been limited to what Wallace termed the extension variable:
the range of the future time span that is conceptualized
(5>1). But logically it would seem that FTP has certain
other possible components; and recognizing these further
components makes us wonder if the experimental tests, j
I
limited to "extension,” have faithfully represented the |
i
j
theoretical formulations. !
27
When Inquiring into a person's "future time perspec
tive" it can be asked (1 ) how far into the future does he
extend his thought?, (2) how densely populated does the
future appear to him?, (3) how well organized or coherent
is his outlook on the future?, and (1|.) to what extent
does he think of himself as moving forward from the
present moment into the future?
The first question has already been formulated as
the extension variable. The second question refers to
the obvious consideration that a person may see many pros
pects before him, or few. One person anticipates many
experiences and looks forward to functioning in a variety
of social, vocational, and avocational roles. Another
person expects few things to happen in his life, and can
imagine himself in an exceedingly limited number of
situations and activities. One way of putting it is to
speak of an individual's future as being more or less
"dense." To employ the "density" variable experimentally
we would require some method for determining the number
of contents with which the future is populated.
Wallace has already addressed himself to the third
question, offering his concept of coherence as "the
degree of organization of the events in the future
time span."1
The fourth logically distinct aspect of FTP, what
will be termed here "future directionality," is implicit
in the work of Knapp and G-arbutt mentioned earlier (29).
Performing a factor analysis of their TMT technique, these
investigators found two item clusters each of which as
rationally consistent within itself, rationally different
from one another, empirically related in a negative direc
tion, and correlated in opposite fashion with an external
variable (n Ach,). The Dynamic-Hasty cluster meets
the requirements for a measure of a person high in future
directionality; the Naturalistic-Passive cluster character
izes the person with an aversion to directionality. The
former cluster consists of items indicating a preference
for directional, moving time imagery; the latter contains
metaphors which lack any suggestion of directionality,
indicating instead a sense of time as surrounding and
encompassing, as though it were an oceanic medium. As
noted earlier, McClelland (35) and others have related
these contrasting views of time to broad ideological and
sociological variables.
We have, then, a logical four-dimensional model of
FTP. "Density" could be regarded as the "stuffings"
1Wallace has expressed in a private communication his
belief that the present study is a logical extension of his
own work.
29
contained within the framework which is limited by "exten
sion,” organized by "coherence," and set in motion at the
pace dictated by "directionality." These four hypotheti
cal dimensions bear an interesting logical relationship to
each other: possible complete independence. Nothing
inherent in the definition of any of these variables
necessarily involves the assumption of a particular
relationship with any of the other variables. This con
ceptual independence holds true also on the level of
measurement operations. The latter will be presented in
more detail below and it will be seen that each variable
has an operational representation that is entirely dis
crete from the others.
Therefore if the logically and operationally dis
crete variables that constitute the structure of FTP are
"really” strongly related to each other, the only way to
demonstrate thi3 state of affairs would be through the
medium of empirical research. The factor-analytic tech
nique would be particularly suitable, permitting us to
determine the underlying structure of these variables which
in common usage are lumped together, but are conceptually
independent. What factors are involved in "future time
perspective"? That is the question to which we will
immediately proceed.
CHAPTER III
EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN AND PROCEDURE
Recapitulation of the Problem
The main purpose of this investigation is to inves
tigate the dimensional structure of the future time
perspective construct. This construct has been logically
analysed into four components which are conceptually
independent of each other:
1. Future extension: the range of the future time
span which is conceptualized (how far ahead the person
thinks).
2. Future density: the number of events and
experiences that populate the person’s future as he regards
it (how many events are anticipated).
3. Future coherence: the degree of organization of
events and experiences in the realm of the future (how
consistent and orderly the individual has arranged his
future).
I 4.. Future directionality: the sense of time as
moving more or less definitely from the present moment to
the future (how fast the future is coming).
In a complete factor-analytic study, there are two
extreme alternatives that the empirical findings could j
approach. It might be that the person who thinks far into j
31
the future also sees many things ahead of him, organizes
his future perspective carefully, and prefers to think of
time as moving swiftly along into the future. Or it might
be that behavior regarding each of these aspects is inde
pendent of every other aspect empirically as well as
logically. Between these extreme alternatives are many
possibilities for configurations of relationships.
Apart from the internal analysis of the FTP con
struct we shall explore relationships between the FTP
components and certain intellectual and personality
qualities.
Intellect has already been demonstrated to possess a
complex structure that is still being clarified (20, 21).
Therefore the study of FTP and I. Q,. as measured and
defined by routinely-employed psychometric instruments can
be regarded as no more than an exploratory procedure.
However, the relationship between the various FTP com
ponents and conventionally accepted ' ’intelligence1 ’ ’ 1 has
yet to be clarified, so it is this first step we will take
here.
Personality likewise possesses a complex structure,
whether approached in factor-analytic (19) or ’ “arm-chair"
manner (9). Our small sampling of personality variables
consists of inventory measures of "need for freedom” (21)
and "personality rigidity" (t|2). We will be ineterested
in determining whether these variables are strongly or
weakly associated with FTP, and if they appear to be more
highly related to some aspects of FTP rather than others.
There is reason to believe that rigidity and need-for-
freedom are variables relevant to outlook on the future.
Fenichel (12) and other psychoanalytically-oriented
clinicians have advanced additional hypotheses about the
relationship between time attitudes and character structure
The question of possible sex differences in FTP--
not yet the subject of any theoretical proposals--can also
be studied in an experimental design that includes both
male and female Ss.
Experimental Design
Measures of the FTP, intelligence, and personality
variables were administered to the same subject population;
this total population was not further divided (i.e. , into
groups with varying treatments) except as to sex.
The Subject Population
The subjects for this study were 209 senior high
school students (107 males; 102 females). As the experi
mental procedure required two sessions for its completion,
some additional students were present at one adminis-
!
i
tration, but not the other. Only those who participated j
in both sessions are included in the results presented
33
here. Subjects were tested in classes that are required
for all students, so presumably represent fairly well the
total school population (approximately 700 students).
Measuring Instruments
1. The measure of intelligence used In this study
was the Total Mental Factor score of the California Test
of Mental Maturity. The CTMM had been administered to
the Ss as part of the high school*s counseling and evalua-
tion program within a span of six to eighteen months
before the present study was conducted.
2. Weed-for-freedom is from a factor-analysed scale
that is part of the D-F Opinion Survey (21). It consists
of eleven true-false inventory items which sample situa
tions in which a person may express the preference for
making his own free choices, or accepting the structuring
imposed by others.
3. "Personality rigidity" is the name given to a
heterogeneous thirty-nine-item inventory developed (i|2 )
and cross-validated (i|3) hy Rehfisch at the Institute for
Personality Research and Assessment. High scorers have
been characterized as anxious, inhibited, unoriginal,
socially inflexible, and underachieving persons. Low
scorers receive judge ratings and perform on other tests ;
i
in a manner that permits them to be described as rela- |
i
tively "... adaptable, spontaneous, original, fluent in |
34
thought and. speech, curious, clear-thinking, assertive, and
self-indulgentH (43 > P« 372}-
4» ^he future-extension variable was assessed by the
story-completion technique. Pour story roots were employed.
Barndt and Johnson (2) had introduced the first two; the
other pair had been added by Wallace (5l) who used all
four. The roots are presented below:
(a) At three o*clock one bright sunny afternoon in
May, two men were walking near the edge of town. . . .
(b) Ten o1clock one morning A1 met his friend Jerry
near the center of town. . . .
(c) Joe is having a cup of coffee in a restaurant.
He?s thinking of the time to come when. . . .
(d) After awakening, Bill began to think about his
future. In general he expected to . . . .
5. Future density was assessed by two brief tasks.
D-l required the Ss to predict as many events in the per
sonal future as they could. D-2 is an adaptation of a
one-question technique introduced by Kuhn and McPartland
(31). The Ss were asked to forecast as many future
identities and roles as they could see for themselves.
Both these techniques consist chiefly of instructions to
the Ss, and will be detailed in the section on procedures. ;
i
Two measures of identity were employed instead of one as |
a step in developing construct validity for this new |
3£
variable.
6. Coherence was measured by a sequence-arrangement
task administered in two parts with a definite time inter
val (in this case, three weeks) between administrations.
Part A called for the Ss to state at what age they expect
each of twelve common-life experiences to become true of
them. Part B presented the same twelve items; this time,
however, the Ss were asked to arrange the events in rank
order according to the sequence in which their occurrence
was expected. If a person arranged the sequence in iden
tical order on both occasions, then he could be said to
have a perfectly "coherent" organization of his future
experiences, as far as the limited nature of this task
goes. Any deviation from perfect correspondence on
parts A and B would indicate a lack of coherence. The
items are given below as they were presented in part A.
The items were listed in the same order for part B, but
no longer prefaced by the phrase, "How old will you be
when ..."
The Items: How old will you be when your first
grandchild is born? How old will you be when you die?
How old will you be when you lose interest in sexual
activities? How old will you be when you are too old to
be physically active? How old will you be when you
retire? How old will you be when you feel that you have
36
reached old age? How old will you be when you can no
longer have children? How old will you be when you become
well established in your chosen occupation or activity?
How old will you be when your first great grandchild is
born? How old will you be when your youngest child leaves
home? How old will you be when you begin to regard your
self as part of the ’ ’older generation”? How old will you
be when younger people begin looking after your personal
comfort?
7. The Time Metaphor Test (TMT) was used as the
measure of future directionality. Ss rated twenty-five
metaphors of time to indicate which they considered to be
appropriate or inappropriate. The items used in this
study are identical with those employed by Knapp and
Garbutt (29) to whom the reader is referred for the
listing.
Procedure
E visited the Ss in their regular class periods.
The warm cooperation of administration, faculty, and
students seemed in part to be a function of the fact
that E had graduated from the school when it was quite
new, and so had the status of being an ’ ’old timer” who
was ’ ’ making good.” He had no familiarity, however, with
the current group of Ss who served as Ss.
On his first visit to each class E introduced
37
himself in the following manner:
My name is Bob Kastenbaum. I am training as a
psychologist with the Veterans Administration, and
completing the requirements for the doctor’s degree
in psychology at U. S. C.
Just a few years ago I was sitting in class here
at Bell Gardens High— in fact, I was in the first
group of students to go all the way through from
soph to senior. I ’ve come back here today to ask you
to help me, by participating in the project I am doing
for my degree.
Most of these tests have to do in some way or
other with time--what time means to us. I wish I had
the time to tell you why I think this is such an
important matter; the results figure to be a con
tribution to scientific knowledge that may eventually
have a good deal of practical value.
I would like to have some things about these
tests clearly understood. Although I will ask you to
write your names on the first page of the little
booklet of tests you will receive in a moment, the
results of the tests will be kept strictly confi
dential as far as the identity of each individual
is concerned. After we have gathered all the infor
mation for our study, we will use only the code
numbers that appear on the tests. But we need your
names now so that we can be sure to keep the records
straight. There will be no report made of your indi
vidual tests to the school system, or any other
agency.
About the tests themselves— most of them are
not tests in the sense that there are some answers
that are ’ ’ right’ 1 and other answers that are "wrong."
We want each of you to answer in the way that is
’ ’ right5 ” for you. It Is only if you take these tests
seriously, and answer in the ways that are right for
you, or represent your own point of view~-it is only
in this way that the results of this investigation :
will be useful. So please give these tests your
serious attention; I think you will find them j
interesting. j
i
During the first administration the Ss were presented!
with the measure of directionality (TMT), extension (story j
completions), part A of the coherence technique (sequence
arrangement), and one index of density (D-l, predictions).
When seen again three weeks later, the Ss were given part
B of sequence arrangement, a second measure of density
(D-2, personal identity forecasts), the RjL (rigidity)
scale, and the need-for-freedom scale. Instructions for
the D-l and D-2 tasks are given below. The other instru
ments had been used in previous studies which cite the
brief instructions (TMT: 29), (story completions:2) ,
(sequence arrangement: 5l) , (Ri: 42), (nP: 21).
Predictions, the first measure of density, was
given with the following instructions:
We all think about our future at times, won
dering what life has in store for us. We often make
guesses or predictions about what might happen in
our lives. I would like you to make some guesses now.
What things do you expect to happen in your future?
Write down as many of these as you can in the time
provided. You don*t have to be absolutely certain
that what you guess will happen actually will hap
pen— a good guess is good enough
The second measure of density was a modification of
the Kuhn and McPartland "Who Are You?" technique (31).
The latter investigators asked their Ss to give as many
answers as they could to the question: Who are you?
The present writer has found that by adding questions
pertaining to past and future identities, this simple
technique yielded valuable data for clinical interpreta
tions. In the current study, however, the focus was upon
the number of personal identifications Ss could forecast
for their future, not upon the possible ’’ projective”
significance of the content.
Ss were told, "I’m going to ask you one question,
and I’d like for you to give me as many different answers
to it as you can in the two minutes we will have to spend
on it. Give as many answers as you can; answer in any
way that you wish. Here is the question: Who are you?
You may begin writing your answers now.'” Following this
task, the instructions were repeated. The question this
time was: "Who were you?" Once more the instructions
were repeated, the question now being: "Who will you be?"
The D-2 score was the number of different responses given
to this third question.
Scoring Techniques
The nontemporal variables (CTMM Total Mental Fac
tor, personality rigidity, need-for-freedom) were
objectively scored according to the keys made available
for that purpose.
The basic data of the story-completions technique
for measurement of extension were the estimations made by
the Ss of the time span covered in the action of their
own stories. At first these statements were simply sorted
into time categories introduced by LeShan (32) and
modified by Barndt and Johnson (2). This procedure did
ho
not prove satisfactory. The data were forced into six
categories, markedly curtailing possible information,
including estimations of normality or nonnormality of the
distributions. There was the further disadvantage of unit
inequality from one category to the next; minutes, hours,
days, weeks, months, and years were rather ill-assorted
sizes with which to work. To make better use of the
data, all scores were converted into minutes, and the
minutes converted into their corresponding log values.
This procedure yielded approximately normal distributions.
The score for D-l was the total number of different
responses given in two minutes. The same scoring pro
cedure was used for D-2.
The coherence score was the correlation coefficient
(rho) between first and second sequence arrangements,
i.e., a correlation coefficient was computed for the two
performances of each subject on the sequence-arrangement
task.
The TMT test of directionality was scored by an
algebraic addition of choices for directional versus non-
directional items. Each choice of a directional metaphor
was given a positive valence, while nondirectional meta
phors were given negative valences. Thus a high and
positive score would mean that the subject greatly pre
fers directional imagery, and a high and negative score
ill
that the subject greatly prefers nondirectlonal imagery.
To earn the highest possible score (as directionalist or
nondirectionalist) the subject would select only items
of type A for his "likedM metaphors , and only items of
type B for his "disliked," or the exact reverse. Unfor
tunately, no reliability estimate for this test is
available at the present.
CHAPTER IV
RESULTS
Results of Test Intercorrelations
Determining the relationship of every variable in
this study to every other variable was not only a neces
sary procedure as one of the preliminary steps in
performing a factor analysis, but also provided the
opportunity for inspecting the pattern of results at
another level of statistical analysis. In this section we
will thus make use of. the original matrix of intercor
relations as one basis for attempting to answer the
questions raised earlier in this paper. Product-moment
correlations were computed for the variables included in
Table I. The sex variable was related to the other
variables by means of point biserial correlation coeffici
ents, this technique being appropriate in the case of
one genuinely dichotomous variable; these results are
given in Table II.
Before inspecting the matrix we should give parti
cular attention to the extension variable. It will be
remembered that there were both rational and empirical
reasons for believing that the four story roots employed
might actually measure two rather different characteris
tics of future extension. It was noted on rational
I
TABLE 1
MATRIX OP PRODUCT-MOMENT INTERCORRELATIONSa
IQ
Ri nP D-l D-2 Tiff SC-U SC-S con
IQ
-1) 4*
07
06 10 2l|** 19** 02 18**
Ri -ill* — 2l|** -II4 * -08 -10 -15* -29** -ill*
nP 07 -2l|**
07 07 09
1
0
1
0
-0
06
D-l 06 -ll|* 07
61**
0l | i|2** 33** 23** ,
D-2 10 -08
07
63** 01
27** 1 |3**
34**
TMT 2l|** -10
09 0i | 01
-05 15*
04
SC-U 1 9 *
-15* -03 1 |2** 27**
-05 17*
25**
SC-S 0 2 -29**
-07 33**
li5** l£* 17* 18**
COH 18** -ll|* 06
23**
3I 4**
Oil
23 ** 18**
aDecimal points have been omitted.
♦Significant at the . 0£ level of confidence
**Significant at the .01 level of confidence
TABLE 2
POINT BISERIAL CORRELATIONS BETWEEN SEX
MEMBERSHIP AND OTHER VARIABLES3
i.a.
r ^ ,
O
.
1
Ri .05
nP .11
D-l
o
H
•
D-2 , . 20#*
TMT -.05
SC-U •
o
CD
SC-S -r . 06
COH
1
*
o
-J
** Significant at .01 level of confidence.
aPositive correlations indicate direct relationship with
being a female; negative correlations indicate direct
relationship with being a male.
grounds that roots one and two contain references to
specific temporal "anchors," while the third and fourth
roots are unstructured in regard to a "time set."
Empirically, Wallace found that the first two roots both
differentiated significantly between schizophrenic
patients and normals, while the latter two roots did
not (51). Therefore it was decided to regard the first
two story roots as measures of future extension under
the condition of specific temporal anchoring, and the
second pair of roots as measures of extension under the
condition of no temporal anchoring. Within-pair
correlation coefficients would thus serve as split-half
estimations of reliability.
The product-raoraent correlation coefficient between
the two roots in the first pair (known as Sc-S, for
Story Completions-Structured) was .56. The correlation
between the two roots in the second pair (SC-U, for
Unstructured) was .61 ] . . The N in both cases was 209,
and the coefficients were significant well beyond the
.01 level, which required only a value of .18. The
scores from roots one and two were combined into a
SC-S score; the scores from roots three and four were
combined into a SC-U score. The Spearman-Brown prophecy
formula was applied to estimate the reliability of the
sub-tests formed by combining the scores in the manner
1*6
indicated. The reliability estimate was .72 for the SC-S
, pair, and .77 for the SC-U pair.
The correlation matrix that was later subjected to
factor analysis is presented in Table 1. Examination of
this matrix discloses information relevant both to the
elucidation of FTP as a construct and its relationship
to the external variables of intelligence and personality.
1. To what extent do the logically independent
measures of FTP relate empirically to support the concept
of a relatively unitary outlook on the future? We can
begin to answer this question by noting that all but one
of the intercorrelations among FTP variables were posi
tive, the single exception being a statistically
insignificant -.05 relationship (between TOT and SC-U).
Proceeding further we find that the hypothesis that
chance factors account for the relationships among the
various FTP variables could be rejected at the .05 level
of confidence in two cases and at the .01 level in ten
cases out of a total of fifteen coefficients. Moreover,
if we omit the correlations involving the TMT measure and
consider the interrelations of the other five FTP tests
it will be observed that every correlation is positive
and statistically significant.
Thus it is apparent that the logical independence
of the FTP components gives way on an empirical level
hi
to a pattern of interrelationships. The TMT measure of
directionality tends to split off from the other variables,
possessing no correlation above .15. At this point in
the analysis it can be noted that the other FTP measures
of density, extension, and coherence— are all positively
and significantly related to each other. These findings
will require additional analysis to answer our questions
in more specific fashion; part of this will be accomplished
by factor analysis, but a more detailed inspection of the
correlation matrix can also be helpful.
2. What further information can be gained regarding
the interrelationship of FTP components? By taking each
component separately and examining its pattern of cor
relations we can add to the general picture given above.
Density.— The correlation between the two measures
of density is the highest in the matrix (.61). This
result tends to support the construct validity of the new
variable of density; viewed in another way, the .61 value
can be regarded as an alternate-forms reliability estimate
for either form. D-l and D-2 follow similar patterns of
correlation with the other FTP measures, i.e. , have very
low, insignificant positive relationships with Tmt and
positive correlations significantly different from zero
at the .01 level of confidence with all the other FTP
measures.
1*8
Directionality.--The correlations for this variable
ranged from -.05 to .15 with other FTP measures. Thus
it appears to be substantially independent of density,
coherence, and extension-from-unstructured-beginnings. The
one significant correlation (.05 level) is with extension-
from-struetured-beginnings; while a .15 relationship is so
low that it is tempting to overlook it entirely, with
due caution an interpretation can be offered (see discus
sion section).
Extension.--The most surprising correlation here is
that between the two extension measures, which proved to
be related to an extent no greater than .17 (significant
at .05). as noted earlier, there was prior reason to
expect that the unstructured-structured conditions have
considerable importance in determining the extension of
thought into the future. Even so, we did not anticipate
that the apparent dimension of structuring would tend to
override the basic similarity in the task for two pairs
of story-roots. After acknowledging the revealed lack of
substantial correlation between structured and unstruc
tured conditions for extension, we nevertheless note that
there is a general similarity in the pattern of their
correlations with other FTP measures. Both correlate at
the .01 level of confidence with the density and coherence
measures; but a difference shows up in the relationship
with directionality mentioned in the preceding paragraph.
Coherence.--This component had moderate correlations
with the density and extension measures, ranging from
.18 to . 3I 4 (all significant at .01). It also showed its
kinship to these other variables by failing to correlate
notably with directionality.
3. How does FTP relate to the external variables
of intelligence, personality rigidity, and need-for-
freedom? We find that correlations are generally low,
none exceeding .29. Intelligence (CMMT Total Mental Fac
tor) tends to be related in a positive direction to all
the FTP components, but the coefficients range from .06
to .21l, indicating that an explanation for FTP scores
must take into consideration factors other than the sort
of mental ability that is involved in achieving scores
on conventional intelligence tests. Intelligence is
related more strongly to directionality, extension-from-
unstructured-conditions, and coherence than it is to
density and extension-from-structured-conditions.
The negative relationship between rigidity and need-
for-freedom (-.2I 4, significant at .01 level) confirms
the expectation that people who value being free to make
their own choices will tend also to be non-rigid. That
the correlation is not higher is no cause for wonder,
considering that the nF score represents a factor-ana-
lytically purified measure, and Ri a rather heterogeneous
50
collection of personality characteristics. Ri correlated
in a negative direction with all the FTP measures; nF
correlated positively with all but the extension measures.
In general then, persons who tend to be non-rigid and
who value freedom tend to score more highly on measures
of FTP. The correlations are too low, however, to per
mit us to regard these results as indicating anything
definite about the relationship of FTP to the personality
characteristics explored here.
When it is noted that the highest correlation
between FTP and an external variable is .29, and that five
intra-FTP correlations surpass that value we see that the
present data do not permit a reduction of FTP to any of
the nontemporal reference variables included. Rather
the results indicate that the problems relationships
between ways of orienting oneself toward the future and
other dimensions of personality are apt to be complex.
The correlations between sex membership and the
other variables are presented in Table 2. These point
biserial coefficients were not included in the larger
matrix that underwent factor analysis because of a general
lack of relationship between sex and the other variables.
The positive correlations in this table indicate
direct relationships between being a female and scoring
high on a given variable; the negative correlations
actually represent positive relationships between being a
male and scoring high. Only one of the nine correlations
reaches a level of statistical significance, the .20
relationship between sex and D-2. In other words, female
high school students tend to give more responses indi
cating future roles and identities. The second highest
sex correlation Is with the other measure of density, but
this relationship cannot be accepted as being different
from a chance finding at the .05 level of confidence.
Nevertheless, there is manifested a very weak tendency
for females to have a 'denser future” than males In the
population studied here.
Summary from the Inspection of the
Test Intercorrelations
1. Of the four FTP variables that had been rationally
formulated, three are intercorrelated in a positive,
statistically significant manner, although the values are
moderate (ranging from 17 to .L|.5)» These variables are
density, extension, and coherence.
2. The directionality component appears to split
off from the others, and is best considered as an inde
pendent aspect of FTP.
3. The importance of the distinction between j
temporally-structured and temporally-unstructured con- j
ditions is shown by the finding that scores for roots ;
within each type are highly correlated (.56 and .61}.),
while the two types correlate with each other only to the
extent of .17.
L j . . The newly-introduced concept of density appears
to receive some support by virtue of the .61 correlation
between two different measures of the construct.
5. High scorers on FTP components in general tend
to be of higher intelligence, but this relationship is
we ak.
6. Persons who express a need for freedom and who
receive low scores on a measure of personality rigidity
tend to be more future oriented, but this relationship
is also very weak.
7. Female high school students tend to forecast
more future roles and identities for themselves than do
their male peers, but again the degree of relationship
is slight.
Results of Factor Analysis
The intercorrelation matrix (Table 1) was subjected
to factor analysis, employing the centroid method of
extraction, with orthogonal rotations to approximate
positive manifold and simple structure (53). Before j
examining the results it should be noted that the measures
of FTP and number of external variables included were too |
few to permit a confident detailed, definitive description i
of the nature of future time perspective. G-uilford (19)
has pointed out the inadvisability of extracting too many
factors and interpreting too extensively from a small
matrix. So the present results will be inspected chiefly
with the intention of learning whether or not FTP "hangs
together" in its underlying structure, rather than with
hopes of describing the nature of this structure in a
satisfactory manner.
Five factors were extracted. The unrotated loadings
are presented in Table 3; the rotated loadings are given
in Table I 4.. Two iterations were performed to improve
the estimate of cummunalities.
Factor I.— Five of the six FTP measures had moderate-
to-substantial loadings on the first factor. Only the
TMT (directionality) measure failed to attain a non-zero
loading. Heaviest loadings were obtained for the two
density measures and extension-from-temporally-structured
conditi ons. Extension-from-temporally-unstructured
conditions and coherence had somewhat smaller loadings.
Factor I thus appears to answer the most general question
in a general way: most of the FTP measures considered
here tend to share a common underlying component, in that
they yield reasonably substantial loadings on the same
factor (which, moreover, was the strongest factor to
emerge from this analysis).
54
TABLE 3
UNROTATED FACTOR LOADINGS*
Measure I ii III IV V h**
IQ
32 28 16
-23 19 29
Ri 41
28
-15 -07 -24 33
nF 18
33
16 20 -20
25
D-l
65
-36 12 22
-17 83
D-2 66 -41 11 29
20
75
TMT 21
33
-10 12
24 24
sc-u
44
-20 20 -28
-14 37
sc-s 52 -14
-44
07 13 51
COH
44
-06
15 -17 14 27
^Decimal points omitted
**Communa1ities
55
TABLE k
ROTATED FACTOR LOADINGS*
Measure I II III IV V
h**
IQ
00 36
00 36
17 29
Ri
33 U5 -05
00 -10 32
nF -01
hi 23
-11 -10
2h
D-l 60 00 50
oh
10 62
D-2
5i
-08 50 08 1*6
73
TMT -01 36
-06 -06
31 23
SC-U 38
03
20 U2 -10
37
sc-s 59 06 -12 -09 36 50
COH
2i| 13 Ik 36 19
26
■^Decimal points omitted.
** C ommunali ti e s
56
FTP is seen to fall short of complete unity, however,
as directionality measure had no share of this most
general factor. One way to account for the distinctness
of the directionality measure would be the assumption that
it does in fact represent an aspect of FTP which is rela
tively independent of the other aspects. But there
remains the possibility that the measure of directionality
(TMT) lacks sufficient reliability to be regarded as an
effective measure of the assumed directionality variable.
It was noted earlier that no estimate of reliability was
available for the TMT at the present time.
Ri was the only nontemporal variable to obtain even
a moderate loading on Factor I, suggesting a very slight
tendency for non-rigidity of personality, as assessed by
this instrument, to be associated with high scores on a
fairly general FTP composite. Psychometric-type intelli
gence lacks even a slight loading. For a convenient
verbal designation of Factor I, the present writer sug
gests the name: General concern for future experiences.
One is free to formulate his own factor name from inspec
tion of the loadings presented in Table I 4..
Factor II.--Three of the. four substantial loadings
on this factor were attained by the nontemporal measures.
It is interesting to observe that the three nontemporal
measures had loadings within a rather limited range (.36
to .1*5 ) , and that directionality fell into this same
range (.36). Directionality thus had the distinction
of being the only FTP variable not represented on Fac
tor I, and the only FTP variable represented on Factor II.
Ignoring for a moment the participation of direction
ality on this factor, examination of the other loadings
suggests that the common variance has something to do with
the effective socially-channelized use of intelligence.
High scorers on this factor tend to perform well on intel
ligence tests , exhibit preferences for being free and
spontaneous in their behavior (1 *2, l f - 3), and actually do
behave in a manner judged by others to be flexible and
creative (1 *3)*
Coming back to the directionality measure, reference
should again be made to its original experimental use (29).
It was found that a strong positive relationship existed
between preference for Dynamic-Hasty imagery and the
strength of need for achievement. The loading of direc
tionality on Factor II makes some sense in view of this
previous finding. The person of good intelligence who
tends to accept social values and seek his satisfactions
and meanings in life within the realm of "approved"
cultural action will share the nmerican middle-class
interest in future achievements (35) and the concomitant
preference for images of time that suggest a definite
58
: movement toward the valued future. Nothing in the factor
loadings themselves necessitates this sort of interpre
tation, nor supports the more extensive generalizations
regarding middle-class values and the like. However,
these considerations are all first-order inferences from
the assumed nature of each variable loading on Factor II
and, as such, occupy a borderline position between the
objective reading of the data and frank speculation.
Factor III.— This factor appears essentially to be
a doublet for the density variable, the two measures of
density having identical loadings of .50• There is a
considerable drop to the next highest values, need-for-
freedom loading .23, and extension-from-unstructured-
conditions at .20. There is no ready interpretation for
these latter two variables appearing on Factor III.
Perhaps the simplest explanation for this factor is
in terms of a relatively more specific FTP dimension (in
comparison with Factor I), which is concerned largely with
density. But there is another possibility. Both D-l and
D-2 might be said to involve the ideational-fluency factor
obtained by Guilford et al. (20), since the scores rep
resent total number of responses. Because no ideational-
fluency measure was included in the present battery it is
impossible to muster direct evidence on this question.
There is, however, some indirect evidence that weighs
against an interpretation of Factor III as ideational
fluency. It has been shown elsewhere that adolescents
give significantly fewer responses, on the average, to
questions pertaining to past density than they do to future
density (28). If ideational fluency were the primary
determinant of density responses there would be no reason
to expect significant differences between past and future
frames of reference. None of the other measures used in
the present study involve operations resembling those
employed in tests of ideational fluency, so it is not
possible to gain more information on this matter by
inspecting the other loadings on Factor III.
Factor IV.--It was anticipated that if as many as
four factors could be extracted from this small matrix,
Factor IV would probably have very low loadings and prove
quite resistant to rational interpretation. Therefore it
was a little surprising to discover that the three rela
tively substantial loadings on Factor IV reach
approximately the same magnitude as the loadings on Fac
tors II and III (.38 to .i|2). When the measures
represented on Factor IV turned out to be IQ, extension-
from-temporally-unstructured-conditions, and coherence,
an unexpected but meaningful picture is observed.
As a tentative formulation, requiring considerable
further evidence for its establishment, it is suggested
60
that Factor IV denoted the tendency to bring intellectual
resources to bear upon relatively unstructured possibility-
situations with a resultant coherent organization of the
contingencies. It might be useful to enlarge upon this
concept here for the purpose of clarification. The future
is realistically ambiguous for everyone. Some people are
able to explore the future extensively when they are aided
by clear guides in the immediate situation (i.e. , the
SC-S measure); but this ability does not guarantee a simi
lar knack for exploring the future when the immediate
situation lacks strong structuring (i.e., the SC-U mea
sure ).
In essence, this distinction had already been noted
in reporting results from inspecting the matrix of inter
correlations. Factor IV adds to this picture the findings
that (l) it is the more intelligent person who manifests
the ability to explore the future under unstructured cir
cumstances, and (2) associated with this constellation is
the ability to impose a consistent personal organization
upon the future thus explored. As was the case in
describing the other factors, the writer has perhaps gone
a bit beyond the bounds of strictly objective reporting,
but the factor loadings themselves are still available for
scrutiny by others.
Factor V.— Here finally is a factor which does not
61
iseem to welcome interpretation. There is a fairly sub
stantial loading of .1+6 (for D-2), which is interesting,
for the separation of D-2 from the other measure of den
sity is the only such instance in this analysis. Other
loadings, however, confuse rather than clarify the situa
tion, so this factor will be passed as being essentially
uninterpretable.
Summary of Factor-Analytic Findings
1. A general future time perspective factor emerged,
on which five of the six temporal measures had loadings.
This factor (I) was named, general concern for future
experiences,
2o Factor II had loadings on directionality, the
one FTP measure not represented on I, and loadings on all
three external variables. This factor was described in
terms of effective, socially-channelized use of intel
ligence .
3. Factor III had its heavy loadings on both den
sity measures and was thus considered tentatively as a
doublet for density, although the possibility was noted
that ideational fluency may make a more or less pronounced
contribution to performance on the density tasks.
if. Factor IV was tentatively identified as the
tendency to explore and organize future possibilities when
the immediate situation is relatively unstructured.
A fifth factor was extracted, but not inter
preted.
CHAPTER V
DISCUSSION
Comparison of Intercorrelational and
Factor-Analytic Results
The experimental questions have received two sets of
answers, arising from the intercorrelational and factor-
analytic treatments of the data. These results have been
presented separately, but an attempt must be made to inte
grate them if the outcome of this study is to be clarified
The major problem was to determine to what extent
the construct of future time perspective could be con
sidered to represent a unitary psychological variable.
A rational analysis had previously suggested that FTP
consisted of at least four variables, none of which had
any necessary logical relationship to any of the others.
In this instance both treatments of the data appear to
lead to the same conclusion: measures of FTP tend to
interrelate with moderate consistence, but one variable
(directionality) is so distinct from the others that the
hypothesis of a completely unitary interpretation of FTP
cannot be supported. Providing the basis for this con
clusion is the intercorrelational evidence that all the
FTP measures, except for directionality, are positively
related to each other on a statistically significant level
and the relatively substantial loading of these same
6i|
measures on Factor I. Directionality failed to load on
Factor I, just as it failed to correlate highly with the
other FTP measures.
While directionality appears to be clearly sepa
rate from the other FTP measures in the intercorrelation
matrix, it does not emerge as a separate factor in the
analysis. Represented by only one measure, directionality
did not have a real chance to show itself as a factor,
but it might conceivably have loaded so highly on a given
factor that the interpretation of the factor would have to
take the directionality variable very much into account.
The obtained results, however, show that TMT, : the direc
tionality measure, had no loading higher than .36, and
that this loading could be accorded only a supplementary
interpretation on a factor that chiefly described intel
lectual and personality functions (Factor II).
It may be that directionality does represent an
aspect of future time perspective which has variance to
share with other measures that might be devised. Or it
might be that preference for swiftly moving imagery is
best considered as a personality or temperament function
that has no particular implications for outlook on the
future. Still another alternative explanation could be
that the TMT task lacks sufficient reliability for
research purposes; this possibility suggests itself
65
because of the absence of reliability estimates to the
contrary (i.e. t the absence of reliability estimates),
and the generally low correlations and factor loadings of
TMT. A fourth alternative will be proposed when the
implications of this study for further research are
explored.
Added to the finding that most measures of FTP are
positively intercorrelated and share a general, underlying
factor is the possibility that a more limited variable can
also be discerned. The two measures of density had the
highest intercorrelation in the matrix (.61), and had
identical loadings (.50) on the doublet, Factor III,
apart from their contribution to the general FTP factor.
As noted earlier, there is some question that a nontem
poral determinant may be contributing importantly to the
variance of the density scores. The nature of the response-
and-scoring process for the density measures resembles
the procedures employed in measuring the intellectual
ability of ideational fluency. Evidence on this point is
inconclusive at present. Further work should indicate
whether or not density can justifiably be regarded as a
variable distinctly concerned with the number of experi
ences a person anticipates for his future. Two further j
!
inferences can be made at this time, however, based on i
the absence of loadings for either density measure on j
66
Factors II and IV, and the low intercorrelations with the
measures that do load on these factors. Whatever is
measured by the density measures seems to have little to
do with the personality dimensions of rigidity or need-
for-freedom, nor does it appear to be related to behavior
in relatively unstructured situations. The generality of
these statements beyond the experimental variables
included in this study has not been established.
One provocative finding from the factor analysis
was not at all clear from inspection of the intercorrela
tion matrix. Factor IV was tentatively interpreted as
the tendency to explore and organize future possibilities
v/hen the immediate situation is relatively unstructured.
IQ, coherence, and extension-from-temporally-unstructured-
conditions were the measures loading on this factor.
Re-examining the intercorrelation matrix in the light of
this finding permits one to see, from a "backward time
perspective," how this factor might have been inferred frcm
the collection of correlation coefficients; but it is
doubtful that this potential combination would have
emerged so clearly without use of factor-analytic pro
cedures. The one preparation for this finding was the
separation of the four subtasks measuring the extension
variable into two pairs on the basis of face-value dif
ferences and relatively low intercorrelation (.17 ) • The
67
appearance of one of these pairs (SC-U) but not the other
(SC-S) on Factor IV gave unexpected emphasis to the
importance of the structured-unstructured difference.
Remembering that both aspects of the extension variable
had substantial loadings on the general FTP factor, one
gets the impression that it is still useful to retain the
concept of range-of-future-conceptualized, but that
attention must be given to the particular conditions from
which the individual is asked to project himself forward
in thought.
The factor analysis had nothing to add about sex
differences in future time perspective, as the intercor
relations were so low that they were not included in the
matrix for analysis. An inspection of the intercorrela
tions between sex membership and the other variables
(Table 2) after factor analysis also failed to reveal
consistent trends that might have suggested some impli
cation of sex differences for any of the factors obtained.
Both the intercorrelational and factor-analytic
findings contribute to understanding the relationship of
FTP to the small sample of intelligence and personality
variables. The intercorrelations indicated that high
scorers on FTP measures in general tend to be of higher
intelligence, express a stronger need for freedom, and
answer a personality rigidity inventory in a way that has
been found to characterize spontaneous, effective indivi
duals. These relationships were rather weak, however,
and would be of practically no use in attempting to
understand a given individual, although there might be
some group predictive ability. The orthogonal factor
analysis further indicated that future time perspective
in its most general sense (Factor I) could not be well
explained on the basis of IQ, or the two personality
measures included here. The strongest relationship
between FTP and external variables was shown to be the
case of directionality. People who preferred dynamic,
unidirectional images of time tended also to earn higher
IQ scores, favor personal freedom, and behave in a rela
tively flexible and effective manner. Intelligence also
had a loading on Factor IV, thus being related to explor
ation of future possibilities under relatively unstructured
circumstances•
It is apparent that the factorial results make a
large contribution to the clarification of relationships
among FTP measures and external variables, relationships
that were suggested in gross fashion only by the unana
lyzed intercorrelations. The findings seem to answer the
second experimental question reasonably well: the sevei*al
variables involved In future time perspective differ
considerably in their relationships with intelligence and
69
personality variables.
Implications of the Present Results for Past
Studies Involving Future Time Perspective
It was observed earlier that those writers who have
offered the most extensive theoretical formulations invol
ving future time perspective seemed to regard this concept
as unitary in nature. Holding this view, such theorists
as Freud (17) and Frank (16) necessarily implied that any
relationship proposed between a given personality or
sociological variable and FTP would obtain in a fairly
simple and molar way. Suppose, for example, that one were
trying to investigate the hysteric personality, as this
diagnostic entity is conventionally conceptualized. From
Freud8s formulations of personality development and
psychopathology it might be predicted that people charac
terized by heavy use of hysteric mechanisms would tend to
repress their future, period. The hysteric is presumed
to be a person who does not want to know; he represses
awareness of any conditions that might disturb his habi
tual mode of dealing with his conflicts, and a keen look
at the future might reveal all sorts of dangers.
The results reported in this study indicate the
possible error of investigating a time perspective-
per3onality relationship in such a simplified manner.
Depending upon the specific measure selected to represent
7°
FTP, the results might either support or fail to support
the hypothesis. The hysteric, for example, might not
differ from control subjects in the tendency to extend
thought into the future from immediate conditions that
are well-structured; but there might be a substantial
difference in performance from unstructured conditions.
Recognition of the variety of FTP variables and their
interrelations would encourage an increased differentiation
of theoretical formulations, and a more refined empirical
test of them.
Nevertheless, the finding that most measures of FTP
share a common factor suggests that previous formulations
and experiments have a core of credibility in their
treatment of future time perspective. The task of re
interpreting existing theory in light of the present
results will not be undertaken here; instead an effort
will be made to re-examine only the empirical studies, and
to suggest which findings appear to be consistent with
the revised conception of future time perspective obtained
from the present study.
Most previous investigations measured future time
perspective by means of the story-completions technique.
The extension variable scored from this task has been
shown to share in the most general factor of future time
perspective that emerged in this study. Thus it is
71
reasonable to suggest that results obtained with the story
completions technique represent a fairly molar picture of
the way a person views his future (in its formal or
dimensional aspects, at least). All of the experiments
reviewed except those of Israeli (2ij., 2£), Fisher and
Fisher (13), and Knapp (29) would qualify on these grounds
Moreover, IsraeliTs work was in part concerned with what
<
he termed future outlook, a concept that is quite similar
to future extension. He used forced-choice questions and
the future autobiography techniques, which may or may not
yield results comparable to the story-completions pro
cedure .
But it has also become clear that the differences
between structured and unstructured conditions is impor
tant for understanding the meaning of extension into the
future. The procedures used by LeShan (32), Ellis (10),
and Davids and Parent! (7) were of the unstructured
variety; Barndt and Johnson (2) and Teahan (1|9) used
structured conditions, and Wallace (£l) used both. When
the relation of scores on structured and unstructured
story-completions to other measures in the present study
is brought to mind, some tentative inferences can be made.
1. LeShan (32) found that unstructured extension
significantly differentiated between membership in lower
and middle socioeconomic classes for grade-school children
If results from the present study can legitimately be
generalized, then it would be expected that middle-class
children should also organize their future more consis
tently than their lower-class peers.
2. With children as subjects, two studies employing
unstructured extension failed to find positive relation
ships between future time perspective and frustration
tolerance (10) or emotional stability (7)» Tendency to
organize the future coherently also would be expected to
be unrelated to frustration tolerance and emotional
stability in this age group. If Davids and Parenti (7 )
are correct in their guess that concern for the future is
the preoccupation of the unhappy child, then their finding
that pessimism is related to unstructured extension in
childhood should be supplemented by evidence that the
unhappy child expects more things to happen in his future
(density). But such a result would be a little puzzling.
Prom considerations such as Lewin has presented (33) it
would seem that a dour outlook on life should be associated
with the lack of a personally meaningful future. Perhaps
in childhood there Is the tendency to take advantage of
the realistically long future that lies ahead by projecting
forward wishes ungratified In the current life situation;
In the adult years, thinking about the future is a normal j
activity, and it is the blanking out of the future that
assumes out of the ordinary significance. The adult
presumably also is aware that his future does not extend
so far ahead as it did in youth, and thus provides less
ample opportunity for investing his feelings and thoughts.
To determine whether or not the dynamics of pessimism,
depression, and related moods are different in children
from those in adults, it would be valuable to introduce
other FTP measures in addition to unstructured extension.
It would be expected that pessimistic or depressed adults
would score low on measures of density; but the con
siderations mentioned above suggest an increment in future
concern for pessimistic children. So here is an instance
in which incorporation of several FTP variables in the
same experiment could help resolve problems that are
unanswered with the use of a single technique.
3* Studying adolescents and young adults, Barndt and
Johnson (2) could differentiate delinquents from nondelin
quents, and Teahan (1*9) could differentiate optimistic from
pessimistic, and academically successful from nonsuccessful
students on the basis of structured extensions. Noting
that structured extensions (SC-U) had the second highest
loading on the general FTP factor, it would appear that
these findings of Barndt and Johnson and of Teahan can be
generalized beyond a single measure to a more molar
outlook on the future. Young adults who are delinquent,
lb
pessimistic, and/or unsuccessful academically would be
expected to organize their futures less consistently, and
foresee fewer events, experiences, and roles for themselves.
Comparing the groups of studies discussed under points two
and three, it becomes apparent that structured extension
is a better single measure to use if one wants to be able
to generalize to a general concept of future time perspec
tive, while unstructured extension has somewhat different
implications which have yet to be well explored.
i|. Wallace (5l)» the only previous investigator to
study both aspects of extension, found that the unstructured
story-roots significantly differentiated between hospital
ized schizophrenic patients and normal controls, while
the structured roots did not. The findings of the pre
sent investigation are consistent with this result,
showing that the two aspects of extension intercorrelate
only slightly (.17) although significantly at the .05
level of confidence. Wallace did not study directly the
relation between extension and coherence, but as the
latter variable also differentiated between schizophrenics
and nonschizophrenics there is some reason to believe that
coherence and unstructured extension might be related.
It is possible, however, for two variables to correlate
with a criterion measure, but not with each other. The
present study found significant correlations between
75
coherence and both aspects of extension, and all three
measures were represented on the general FTP factor. It
could be said then, that Wallace*s variables have been
found to behave in a manner consistent with their original
performance, and have been combined into a somewhat more
general concept of future time perspective.
TMT, the directionality measure, was developed and
first reported by Knapp and Garbutt (29) in connection
with an investigation of need to achieve. The results of
that study are indirectly supported by the present investi
gation, which finds that TMT has its only interpretable
loading on a factor concerned with effective socially-
channelized use of intelligence. The relative independence
of TMT from the other FTP measures, if not a matter of
insufficient reliability for the TMT task, suggests that
need to achieve is related only to the sense of moving
forward Into the future, but not necessarily to a marked
concern for experiences anticipated in the future. This
inference appears to be at variance with the usual assump
tion that an emphasis on achievement is associated with
a generalized preoccupation with the future. A more
direct test of this hypothesis would be useful.
Limitations of the Present Study and
Suggestions for Additional Research
It is appropriate to consider together the limitations
of the experiment reported here, and implications for
further research, the latter following from the former.
An obvious limitation is the fact that this study was
carried out with a single population, high-school students
in a suburban southern California community. There is
no knowledge of how well the results can be generalized
to different age groups or to individuals in substantially
different life situations (e.g., lower-class city-dwellers,
rural individuals, members of upper-class families with
long traditions). The population studied here limited
the results in another way also; the homogeneity of sub
ject age perhaps tended to reduce the variance of the
measures used. Replicated with a more heterogeneous
population the experiment would be likely to yield a
x*Lder dispersal of scores. Further research would have
increased usefulness if socioeconomic status and other
sociological variables could be included. The lack of
such information is another restriction of this study.
Another reason for regarding the conclusions of
this study as tentative is the limited sampling of future
time perspective measures and reference variables. From
the earlier discussion it can be seen that more definitive
statements could have been made if there had been other
I
measures of directionality, and a test or two of idea
tional fluency. Furthermore, the structured-unstructured
distinction that emerged would be amenable to more thorough
understanding if other FTP measures could be designed to
broaden the assessment of this dimension, and appropriate
reference variables addedo It would be well to devise
measures of density that do not involve the suspected
ideational-fluency factor, add to the number of story-roots
for the extension tasks, and select a wider range of per
sonality measures, particularly those with factorial
properties that have already been clarified.
These small technical points would contribute to a
more substantial replication of the present study, but
there is another possible line of development which would
greatly broaden the meaning and usefulness of this
approach.
Discussion has thus far been limited to the concept
of future time perspective. The effort has been to
clarify certain aspects of a concept which has been
employed in a relatively discrete group of investigations.
Yet it is doubtful that a deep understanding of the role
of future time perspective in personality can be obtained
without considering certain other concepts which basically
may be quite related, although seemingly concerned with
different kinds of phenomena. In the present writer’s
examination of the relevant literature he was not clearly
aware of these interrelations, being misled by terminology
which appeared to separate these other topics from the
present purposes. It was not until after the empirical
phase of this study had been completed that these relation-
t -■
ships were perceived.
For example, the study of planning abilities seems
closely related to future outlook. Both sets of variables
have definite reference to the future, the planning pro
cess having more obvious connection to the Individual^
choice of behavior and purposive manipulation of the
environment. In another manner of speaking, future time
perspective might be regarded as that function of the
individual which permits him to draw up a model of the
future, while planning abilities refer to his process of
working within that self-defined framework. But there is
no direct evidence to indicate that the relationship is of
the type suggested here; in fact there appears to be no
direct evidence on the subject at all.
It would be valuable to study the relationships
between future-time-perspective measures and measures of
planning ability. Such an investigation would make it
possible to reconceptualize both concepts in a broader
manner, avoiding the arbitrary restrictions that have
thus far kept the two bodies of research apart. A poten
tial bridge between these areas may be found in the form
of two new planning-ability factors recently derived by
Berger, Guilford, and Christensen (3). These investi
gators constructed a number of new tests to measure
predictive ability, and administered these along with a
battery of other measures previously developed. Two dis
tinct new factors emerged, and were named conceptual
foresight and perceptual foresight. Foresight was inter
preted in this study as "... an awareness of possible
future events that have a relation to a present situa
tion.” This definition of foresight appears to involve
the flexibility of ideas, as indicated by the fact that
the examinee has to conceptualize different needs that
might be connected with the given situation in order to
answer the problem in the foresight tests (3, p. 28).
Noting that the perceptual-foresight factor was
defined in part by maze tests, Berger,et al. suggested
that this supports Porteus1 belief that the maze tests
he has been using for many years are tasks involving fore
sight. This coordination between the new foresight factors
and the widely-used Porteus maze test may prove quite
useful, suggesting as it does that the range of problems
investigated with the Porteus mazes can now be integrated
into a time-perspective-planning-abilities approach. For
example, several studies (8, Ilf., 39) have demonstrated
significant differences between delinquent and nondelin
quent youths in maze best performance. Barndt and
80
Johnson, employing a measure of future time perspective,
also found significant differences (2). Empirical pre
diction and understanding of what is involved in both
types of measure might be improved by studying them simul
taneously.
Another area of research also appears very relevant
although, once again, this relevance does not seem to
have been made explicit in the literature. Many studies
have been concerned with the ability to delay the response
to an immediate stimulus. The tendency to make prompt
responses in situations where it is thought that a longer
reaction time would be more appropriate has sometimes been
termed, "impulsivity”; but the terminology is as diverse
as the experimental operations and the theoretical view
point of the experimentalists. Thus one must be careful
in drawing conclusions from work in this area, making
certain that semantic similarities or differences do not
obscure the basic nature of the variables under study.
The term "response inhibition” will be used here as a
convenient designation for this general class of phenomena,
with no implication for any particular theoretical inter
pretation of the processes involved.
Response inhibition appears to be the other side of
the coin from future time perspective. The reasoning can
run in two directions: (l) a person delays his response to
the immediate situation in order to have time for develop
ing a more extensive perspective including future
contingencies, or (2) because a person does possess a
well-developed future time perspective he is less inclined
to react in a hasty manner, bound to the immediate stimu
lus conditions.
There is a bit of direct evidence for a positive
relationship between concern for the future and response
inhibition (U&), but the hypothesis remains to be
thoroughly tested. A variety of techniques have been used
to measure variables pertaining to response inhibition;
however, selection of the most useful techniques will
probably require further study.
Two series of experiments performed by teams of
investigators apparently working independently of each
other have yielded provocative findings with ingenious
techniques. Singer and his colleagues (L|.6, I 47» U8) have
investigated the effects of experimentally inhibiting
responses of various types, and Siipola and her colleagues
have found ways to differentiate between people who
respond hastily and those who respond more leisurely to
several different conditions lj.5). Yet it seems
necessary to clarify the interrelations among various
response-inhibition measures before these can be brought
to bear on the more general problem of integration with
82
future time perspective and'planning abilities. Possibly
the interrelation among response inhibition variables
could be explored simultaneously with the suggested inte
gration of FTP and planning measures.
At least one additional set of variables should be
added to those already considered. Measures of response
inhibition, future time perspective, and planning abilities
are never made on an individual with a "zero” level of
activity. People are always behaving at a particular
pace, and the typical pace of an individual may well be
related to his ability to inhibit responses, conceptualize
the future, or plan his actions. Kastenbaum has suggested
that "each *pace* has its unique implications for a parti
cular view of the future” (27> p» 287)* His analysis of
neurophysiological and behavioral rates of activity
implies that much work needs to be done before the concept
of pace can be put to effective theoretical and experi
mental use.
The incorporation of behavioral pace measures into
a replication and extension of the present study might
elucidate the meaning of the directionality variable.
Previous discussion suggested three alternative accounts j
for the obtained interrelations between directionality and j
the other variables studied here: (1) directionality is j
i
a personality function that has no particular implications ;
for future outlook; (2) it is a potential separate factor
of FTP which would manifest itself so if additional
measures were developed for the variable; (3) it is poorly
(unreliably) measured by the TMT, and so the results
should not be given serious attention. To these alter
natives can now be added the possibility that direction
ality is substantially a temporal variable, but one
pertaining more to the pace of behavior than to the
relatively static subjective model of the future implied
by future time perspective.
Other areas of research may also have important
bearing on the understanding of future time perspective.
Goal gradient phenomena, expectancy sets, and level of
aspiration can be mentioned in passing as potentially
valuable areas for exploration.
This discussion has chiefly been concerned with
suggesting the possibility of an integration amoung four
sets of variables currently separated in the literature:
future time perspective, planning abilities, response
inhibition, and behavioral pace. Not much attention has
been given to specific problems to which these variables
might be fruitfully applied, although a considerable range
of subject matter has been lightly touched upon throughout
the paper. However, this bias has had as its basic pur
pose the hope of contributing to meaningful substantive
84 !
research f , in the long run” by concentrating for a while j
i
upon matters of conceptual and methodological clarifi- j
cation. j
t
i
CHAPTER VI
SUMMARY A HD CONCLUSIONS
Man*s ability to conceptualize his future has been
taken into account in many theoretical formulations and
empirical studies of human behavior. Systematic thinkers
such as Freud and Lewin have given attention to this
problem, and various investigators have explored future
time perspective as a variable in schizophrenia, social
class, interpersonal attitudes, frustration tolerance,
delinquency, optimism and academic achievement, emotional
stability, maturation, and need to achieve.
The present study was intended to contribute to the
clarification of future time perspective as a psychologi
cal variable. A rational analysis indicated that the
concept could be differentiated into at least four
distinct aspects, none of which has any necessary logical
dependence upon any of the others. These hypothetical
variables are: (1) future extension, defined as the
range of the future time span that is conceptualized;
(2) future density, the number of events and experiences
a person anticipates for his future; (3) future coherence, I
the degree of organization of events and experiences in j
!
the realm of the future; (iq) future directionality, the
sense of time as moving more or less definitely from the
present moment to the future.
86
The major experimental problem was to determine to
what extent future time perspective could be considered
to function as a relatively unitary variable. Secondarily,
there was an interest in discovering what relationships
obtain between specific measures of future time perspec
tive and the external variables of IQ, personality
rigidity, and need-for-freedom.
A battery of tests was developed to measure the
hypothetical future time perspective variables. The final
battery included story-completion tasks to measure exten
sion, two measures of personal predictions to assess
density; a sequence-arrangement task to measure coherence;
and a Time Metaphor Test to measure directionality. Non-
temporal variables included the California Test of Mental
Maturity, a Personality Rigidity scale, and a Need-for-
Freedom scale.
The battery was administered to 209 high school
students (10? males; 102 females) enrolled in courses
required of all students. Intercorrelations were com
puted among scores on all the variables mentioned above,
and the sex membership variable was also included.
Inspection of the resulting intercorrelational matrix
provided conclusions at one level of data treatment; a
centroid factor analysis with orthogonal rotations to
approximate simple structure and positive manifold pro
vided results at a second level of data treatment.
87
Results of the Intercorrelations indicated: (l) the
variables of extension, density, and coherence are inter
correlated in a positive, statistically significant
manner, although with low to moderate values (.17 to . 1 | . 5 > )
(2) the directionality variable was not significantly
related to the other hypothesized future-time-perspective
variables; (3) the importance of the distinction between
temporally-structured and temporally-unstructured con
ditions was suggested by the finding that scores for
story-completions within each type are highly correlated
(.£6 and .6 ) while the two types correlate with each
other only to the extent of .17; (^) high scorers on
future time perspective variables in general tend to be
of higher intelligence, express a stronger need for free
dom, and to receive low scores on the measure of per
sonality rigidity, but these relationships were weak;
(5) sex membership was not substantially related to the
other variables in a differentiating manner.
Five factors were derived from the orthogonal ana
lysis. Factor I appeared to be a general future-time-
perspective factor on which five of the six temporal
measures had loadings. This factor was tentatively
named, general concern for future experiences. Factor II
had loadings on directionality, the one temporal measure
not represented on Factor I, and loadings on all three
88
external variables. This factor was described in terms
of effective socially-channelized use of intelligence.
Factor III had its heavy loadings on both density measures
and was thus considered tentatively as a doublet for den
sity, although the possibility was noted that ideational
fluency may make a more or lesa pronounced contribution
to performance on the density tasks. Factor IV was
tentatively identified as the tendency to explore and
organize future possibilities when the immediate situation
is relatively unstructured. The fifth factor was not
interpreted.
These results are taken to support the conclusion
that future time perspective can be regarded as a rela
tively molar concept, if the directionality variable is
excluded. It was further concluded that differences among
the future-time-perspective variables cannot be entirely
ignored because of the distinction emerging between
temporally structured and temporally unstructured con
ditions, and the varying relationships between temporal
and nontemporal variables.
In the discussion of results an attempt was made
to re-interpret previous studies involving future time
perspective in light of the present findings. It was also
suggested that additional research could serve a valuable
89
purpose by exploring the relationships among future time
perspective, planning abilities, response inhibition,
and behavioral pace.
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Creator Kastenbaum, Robert Jay (author)

Core Title A Preliminary Study Of The Dimensions Of Future Time Perspective

Degree Doctor of Philosophy

Degree Program Psychology

Publisher University of Southern California (original), University of Southern California. Libraries (digital)

Tag OAI-PMH Harvest,psychology, general

Language English

Contributor Digitized by ProQuest (provenance)

Advisor Guilford, Joy P. (committee chair), Long, Wilbur H. (committee member), Longstreth, Langdon E. (committee member)

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