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An analysis of recent expert estimates of maximum world population at a minimum adequate standard of living

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Content 1
AN ANALYSIS OF RECENT EXPERT ESTIMATES
OF MAXIMUM WORLD POPULATION
AT A MINIMUM ADEQUATE STANDARD OF LIVING
A Thesis
Presented to
the Faculty of the Department of Economics
University of Southern California
In Partial Fulfillment
of the Requirements for the Degree
Master of Arts
I .
I
I
by
John B. Minick
February 19.5^L
i
UMI Number: EP44732
AN rights reserved
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This thesis, w ritten by
JOHN B. MINICK
under the guidance of h.l.?....Faculty Com m ittee,
and approved by a ll its members, has been
presented to and accepted by the Council on
G raduate Study and Research in p a rtia l fu llfill-
ment of the requirements fo r the degree of
MASTER OF ARTS
Faculty Committee
Chairman
I
I
TABLE OP CONTENTS
CHAPTER PAGE
I. INTRODUCTION AND SURVEY OP THE PROBLEM .... 1
Optimum population ....................... 2 i
Importance of the problem........... 3
Definitions .................................. 7
Plan of presentation....................... 7
II. PRE-MALTHUSIAN THOUGHT ON POPULATION PROBLEMS . 9
Greek and Roman study of population......... 10
Aristotle's thought on population ........ 11
Roman thought and practices............... 12
Three types of population policy ..... 12
The Middle Ages . ......................... 13
The seventeenth and eighteenth centuries . . 14
The Mercantilist School ................... 15
The Kameralists............................ 16
Montesquieu . ............................ 17
Cantillon's ideas on population ........... 17
The Physiocrats......................... . 18
Some forerunners of Mai thus................. 19
Benjamin Franklin ......................... 19
Migration again considered ............... 21
CHAPTER
Robert Wallace .........................
James Steuart......................... ..
i Adam Smith on population .................
Several optimistic views .................
William Godwin .........................
M. C. Condorcet .........................
i
j Conclusion .
I III. POPULATION DOCTRINES OP MALTHUS ........... .
i
Biographical sketch of Malthus ...........
Background for Malthus* theory ...........
The Malthusian thesis .....................
, Basic assumptions of the thesis ........
j The two inter-acting ratios .............
Diminishing returns .....................
Checks to population ...................
Malthus* recommendations ...............
Conclusion ................................
IV. POST-MALTHUSIAN THEORIES OF POPULATION . . .
Immediate reactions to Malthus ...........
Initial attack by Godwin . .............
Malthus’ view upheld ...................
i
i Reflections of optimism ................. .
1 William Thompson ........................
i____________Sir_Ar.chibald_AlisonJ
CHAPTER
Nassau William Senior . .
Sismondi............ .
Optimism of Bastiat . . .
Carey's similar attitude
Natural theories ........
Sadler's theories ....
Thomas Doubleday ....
John R a e ............ .
Herbert Spencer ........
John Stuart Mill ........
Population and politics . .
Communist dogma ........
The Georgian view ....
Social theories ......
Social capillarity . . .
Gini's theory ......
Pearl's S-curve ........
Carr-Saunders' optimism .
Further study of population
The displacement principle
Henry Sidgwick ........
Geometric progression attacked
Conclusion ...................
vl
I
CHAPTER PAGEi
I
V. GROWTH OF WORLD POPULATION................. 66|
Historical increase in numbers ........... 66
Rate of increase considered............. 68
Recent population increase............... 6 9J
Decreasing death rate................... 7 0!
World population estimates ....... 7 0:
World population and density by region . . 71'
1
World, population growth by continents . . . 73j
Current rates of increase ................. 73
Birth and death rates by nation........ 77
Rate of increase by nation............. 771
1
I
Conclusion ..................... ..... 80
VI. AREA STUDIES IN POPULATION................. 82;
1
Regional classification ................... 8 2s
i
Group I nations......................... 83
Group II nations....................... 84
Group III nations....................... 84
Spengler’s classification ............... 85
i
Progress of the Irish..................... 861
Crowding in Britain....................... 8 8;
Emigration a solution ................... 89
Military needs considered............... 9 01
1
1
Improvement for Italy ..................... 91
vli!
CHAPTER PAGE|
Population in Puerto Rico . . ............... 92'
Population trouble in Japan ............... 94'
I
Historical development................... 97j
Remedial action .......................... 97'
i
I i
I The example of I n d i a ..................... 9 8'
1 ;
J „ Population in the United States........... 1001
• Population increase in Latin America . . . 101
1 . 1
1
Other population danger spots ............. 102
Turkey and the Near E a s t ............... 102
Ceylon.................................. 104|
1
The Philippine Islands ................. 104;
Egypt.................................... 105i
|
Asia’s contribution ....................... 105
Conclusion................................ 106
VII. WORLD FOOD PRODUCTION AND NEEDS............. 107
Total agricultural acreage ............... 109;
Acres needed per person................. 112
Trend of food production................. 114
Recent food trend ............. ..... 115
Food predictions........ .............. 116
Index numbers of agricultural
production............................ 118
Relative production yields ............... 120
viii
CHAPTER PAGEj
Calorie consumption....................... 1251
Primary and secondary calories........ 128j
Conclusion................................ 129:
VIII. POSSIBILITY OF INCREASING FOOD SUPPLY .... 131j
Increasing total acreage................. 132:
i
Increasing yield per acre................. 134 j
Scientific development................. 1 3 61
Soilless farming ....................... 136
Mechanization........ ................... 137
Farming the sea............................ 138
Production of sea food ......... 1 3 8)
t
Food from sea water..................... 139'
Synthetic foods ............................ 140
Elimination of food prejudices........... 142
Conclusion............................... 143
IX. POSSIBILITY OF POPULATION DECREASE ........ 146
Operative limiting influences ............. 146
Diet a possibility..................... 148
Migration considered ................... 149
What can be d o n e ..................... .. . 150
Effect of birth control knowledge .... 152
Other limiting methods ................. 153
Conclusion............................... 155
CHAPTER PAGE <
X. SUMMARY AND FINDINGS.......................... 157
Optimum world population ................... 157
Optimum against actual................... 1 5 9,
I
Additional food sources ................. 160 j
Conditions for achievement ................. 160|
BIBLIOGRAPHY........................................... 163 I
LIST OF TABLES
, TABLE
I. Population and Density of Continents, Mid-
Year 1951............................... •
1
j II. Estimated Population of the World and Its
j
Distribution by Continents, 1650-1935 . . .
III. Percentage Distribution of Population,
1650-1935 ..................................
!
IV. Estimated Population of the World and Its
Distribution by Continents, 1939 &nd 1946 .
V. Crude Birth Rates and Death Rates by Nation,
Mid-Year 1951 ..............................
I VI. Rate of Population Increase by Nation, Mid-
i
Year 1951 ..................................
VII. Average Birth and Death Rates by Nation . . .
VIII. Approximate Acreage of Food Crops by
j Continent ..................................
IX. Proportion of Continents Adapted to
Agricultural Production ...................
X. Index Numbers of Volume of Agricultural
Production ................................
XI. Index Numbers of Agricultural Production
.per_Capi.ta__
PAGE,
1
I
72,
74
75
7 6 i
1
l
1
7 8;
J
79
103
i
1
i
110
n i l
1
119
I
_121j
TABLE
XII.
xin.
i
!
XIV.
PAGE
Acres Cultivated per Person and Primary
Calories Produced per Acre, 193^ to 1938 . 123
Proportion of Workers Engaged in Agriculture,
1925 to 193^ .............. ............... 126
Per Capita Calorie Consumption, Selected j
Nations, 1935 to 1939 ............... 127
CHAPTER I
I INTRODUCTION AND SURVEY OP THE PROBLEM ;
; i
■ i
j This paper will analyze recent expert estimates of j
I maximum world population at a minimum adequate standard of j
living. The problem will revolve around two basic ele- i
ments— population and the means of subsistence. A study !
of world population growth will be collated with a study
of the resources, chiefly food, which are needed to support
| i
i that population.
i
I
| The analysis will be carried out on a world-wide
I
i
J basis, although considerable attention will be given to
i
j regional aspects of the problem. !
i , The goal of this paper is to determine as nearly as !
|
! possible the particular world population which will enable
everyone to enjoy a given standard of living. And it must
be noted at the outset that this population figure will
vary directly, over the years, with the development of the
arts involved in producing the means of subsistence.
Precise definition of the desired standard of livingj
i
is not possible, and in this study it will be expressed |
I largely in terms of per capita food requirements. Other j
j
I Ingredients of the living standard will be considered, j
j i
Lhoweyer,_and_will_Jbe_indicated.-.in__terms_-of_ the_.percentage__!
2
of workers engaged in non-agricultural pursuits.
!
I. OPTIMUM POPULATION j
i I
! The aim of this paper might be interpreted as an j
i
i
effort to determine the optimum population of the world. j
i
E
The optimum population, at a given time, is that population■
which enables the natural resources of the world to be used;
in such a manner as to yield the highest possible produc
tion and consumption of economic goods and services per i
i capita. If the actual population should be larger or
J smaller than the optimum, the per capita level of living j
, would be depressed. 1
i
Any increase in population beyond the economic
optimum means that per capita production, and thus consump-l
tion, is lowered. In economic terms, this decrease is j
i
I
referred to as diminishing marginal productivity. The j
economic analysis of diminishing marginal productivity for |
I
the individual firm is simply applied to the total world ;
production of goods and services. j
Students of population are aware that population j
, i
cannot outstrip food supply; but they are also aware that i
j it can increase beyond the optimum figure.
I
i
3
II. IMPORTANCE OF THE PROBLEM
The consensus among population theorists is that the
world is already overcrowded— is far in excess of the !
optimum population. Arid certainly there is much evidence !
' _ I
throughout the world to support this view. Over-populationj
i
is looked upon by many as one of the most pressing issues j
i
of the contemporary scene.
Dense population in a given nation is considered a
grave obstacle to the establishment and maintenance of a
] democratic system of government. This is attributed to the!
1 low scale of living which dense population makes necessary.
I 1
It is often pointed out that hungry people, existing at ;
I ‘
poverty levels without hope for improvement, are easy prey
for anti-democratic philosophies.
1
The sought-after goal of peace throughout the world j
is also threatened by over-population. It is generally the j
crowded nations which, in their search for additional |
t
living area, cause war or create conditions which lead to !
t
i i
! open conflict. Pre-war Germany and Japan were excellent
! ^
I examples of this tendency. j
j In addition, freedom from want cannot be achieved
when there are too many mouths to feed. It will be
explained later how the intensive farming made necessary by
_ov.erjrpopulation_demands._too_high_a_per.centage_of__a_nationls_
workers for food-producing pursuits, thus limiting the pro
duction of other consumption goods. This deficiency, of
course, is added to the outright per capita shortage of j
food. !
I
It might also be noted that heavy population and !
| . I
intensive farming make it impossible for a nation to get byj
the years of crop failure, or to enjoy a surplus during the,
bountiful years. Intensive farming practice, furthermore,
I
| stands in the way of advancement to mechanized farming,
J - i ■
! with its high, yield per worker but low yield, generally,
I I
i , j
per acre. j
Dr. Karl Sax, Harvard University botanist, has j
emphasized that there can be no hope of a decent life for j
mankind unless population increase can be checked.* He j
noted that most of North America, Western Europe, Australia]
■ - ' . i ,
! and New Zealand are the only areas that have made the tran-j
' *
sition to lower birth rates and lower death rates. The |
j
remaining three-quarters of the earth's population are stili
i ■■ . |
inadequately nourished and do not have the vitality and |
' ■. ■' ' I
energy necessary to insure economic and social progress.
: Dr. Sax said that President Truman's Point Pour program was
i weak in that it made no allowance for population control.
i
Other population theorists have similarly criticized I
_______ ^ New York Times, February 3, 1951» ________ _
the Point Four program. Professor John B. Condliffe, of {
t
i
the University of California, said, for example, that the
program will not pay off until the heavily-populated areas
I lower their birth rates. He termed population a "major
factor in economic development." |
i
And William Vogt, national director of the Planned t
\ |
Parenthood Federation of America, felt that the Point Four I
■ 5 j
program would raise population and waste resources. It
was his opinion that the best method for raising living
I
standards was through the dissemination of birth control
! information.
1 i
United States aid to Asia has been nullified by
I I
; over-population, according to Alan Valentine, president of I
4 ■
the Committee for Free Asia. He suggested that population
control should be imposed as a condition for further aid.
Russian Communism, he pointed out, thrives on the products '
of over-population, such as starvation, poverty, ignorance, j
i
disease, despair, and death.
The Swedish economist, Gunnar Myrdal, told delegates
to the Fifth United Nations' World Health Assembly that he
I
greatly feared population increase would outrun the I
I
2 New York Times. March 6, 1950*
^ New York Times. April 25, 1952.
I _______ ^_ New. JYor k_T imesMay _9,-1952._________ _______________
6
resources available for betterment of world living condi
tions.^ Myrdal, who spoke in the capacity of executive
secretary of the United Nations Commission for Europe, said
there was no assurance that the technological knowledge of
I
| advanced nations would be used to anything like the degree i
I possible in backward areas. '
i :
j The importance of food supplies to world peace was
' emphasized by J. W. G. MacEwan, dean of agriculture at the ;
fz !
i University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Canada, Nutrition, he ;
i !
I said, is more basic to human welfare and world peace than
rockets and bombs. He considered dietary improvement on a
world scale essential to a better world and hope for peace. j
The two strongest voices in opposition to populationj
j control and over-population theories are the Roman Catholic i
; •).
; Church and communism. The Catholics,'as will be seen later,
I
i
I consider population limitation to be in violation of their
| theological interpretations. And the communist view, which
will also be discussed more fully later, is illustrated by J
a recent Pravda charge that over-population theories are
Invented to justify expansion. The American reactionaries,
according to Pravda, are not interested in the real reason
for the 1 1 disastrous Puerto Rican situation, 1 1 but are simply |
------------------- i
^ New York Times, May 16, 1952. j
^ New York Times, June 22, 19^9._________ j
7
resurrecting the reactionary tools of Malthus to justify
7
and excuse imperialism.
Ill. DEFINITIONS
Only a few terms that are not readily understandable
a
to the reader will be used in this paper. Among these is
the difference between fecundity and fertility. Fecundity
is defined as the actual power of reproduction, while fer-
: tility is the degree of reproduction. A woman, for example,
j
might have the power of giving birth to fifteen children, 1
i
but actually gives birth to only four. In that case her I
|
fecundity would be fifteen children and her fertility four.
It might also be pointed out here that the word
demography refers to the general study of population.
The crude birth rate, another term that will be used,
i
is the annual number of live births per 1000 population.
This is in contrast to a refined birth rate which tabulates
the number of births per 1000 women of a certain age group,
or 1000 women of reproductive age.
i
j |
IV. PLAN OF PRESENTATION j
i
!
The following three chapters will review population
7 New York Times. April 6, 19^9• _____ _ __________
8
theory from the earliest times to the recent past. The
first of these historical chapters will deal with thought j
i
to the time of Malthus; the second will outline the |
Malthusian thesis, and the third will review post- j
I
Malthusian theories of population. The importance of these1
chapters as a background for understanding and appraising j
current theory cannot be overstated.
Chapter V will outline the growth of world popula
tion, while Chapter VT will analyze various geographical ;
i i
| areas which present interesting case studies in population.i
| The next chapters will survey world food production,j
j world food needs, and the possibility of increasing world I
i
j food production. i
And Chapter IX will delve into the possibilities of |
limiting the current rate of population increase for the
i
| world.
i
The final chapter will estimate optimum world popu- j
i
lation, under the present state of the arts, and will con- j
i
sider the chances for achieving this optimum. ,
CHAPTER II
PRE-MALTHUSIAN THOUGHT ON POPULATION PROBLEMS
i
Contrary to general belief, population problems ’
i
received attention in early history, because, even then, an 1
I
undue increase in numbers raised certain problems. A lead-j
i
ing British writer on the subject, A. M. Carr-Saunders, has
made it clear that population has long been a problem to the
savage. Primitive man, he points out, had just as much
i i
trouble as his modern descendents in making ends meet,
j Carr-Saunders shows that limitation of population
; increase was, and still is, quite customary in savage
1 societies. Primitive barriers raised against an unwanted
i
I growth in population, which Carr-Saunders describes, include
l !
postponement of marriage, bans on cohabitation for an !
extended period following childbirth, the exposure of
infants, and abortion; in addition, wars and famines also
2
furnished effective checks. Both preventive and positive
i
l checks to population increase, then, were operative even in
i
I
I the earliest times. I
! - i
J A. M. Carr-Saunders, The Population Problem
(Oxford: The Clarendon Press, 1922), pp. 135-61•
[_______ 2 Ibid.. pp. 213-42.___________ _______________
10
I. GREEK AND ROMAN STUDY OP POPULATION
Leading scholars of the ancient Greek and Roman
empires gave considerable thought to population problems
!
and their solution. i
i
Plato1s Contribution I
In his Republic, the Greek philosopher Plato (430- i
J 3^7 B.C.) included population among the many things that
3
| were to be planned for the well-being of the ideal state.
And in his Laws he said that such a state should have 5040
I
citizens. He advocated careful regulation in order to !
maintain this number; methods of regulation included
rewards for child-bearing, immigration, and emigration to
colonies. Plato believed that this limited number of citi-;
i f . I
zens was necessary to preserve social equilibrium.
On the subject of eugenics, Plato advised that the
best of each sex should be mated as often as possible and
the inferior as seldom as possible for the purpose of
t bringing forth offspring of the best quality. Undesirable \
I !
I infants, he said, should be destroyed by exposure. Plato
I ;
i-------------------
1 ^ Plato, Republic (New York: The Heritage Press,
I 1 94 4), pp. 258-6 0. j
^ Plato, Laws (New York: G. P. Putnam’s Sons, 1926),
PP. 357-67.
11
realized that citizens might not approve of 'the practice of
infanticide and therefore recommended that it be kept a
secret among the rulers. He suggested that children be
taken from their parents immediately after birth so the
latter would not know of their possible destruction.
Aristotle1s Thought on Population
Aristotle (384-322 B.C.) was also prepared to con
trol marriage and birth rates for the purpose of maintain
ing the desired number and quality of citizens. Like
Plato, he advocated infanticide as a lesser evil than over-
6 '
population and inferiority. ;
The conclusions of Aristotle were in part based on ^
the belief that a large political unit would offer adminis
trative difficulties. He anticipated the concept of opti
mum population. This is seen in his recommendation that
the state be of such a size and of such a population that
its inhabitants would be able to live temperately and
liberally in the enjoyment of leisure.1
5 Edmund Whittaker, A History of Economic Ideas (New
York: Longmans, Green and Co.’ , ' 1940), p. 321.
^ Aristotle, Politics (Oxford: The Clarendon Press,
1946), p. 327.
7 JQbid-> pp. 291-92.
12
Roman Thought and Practices
In the year 10 A.D. laws were passed In the Roman
Empire, under the emperor Augustus, which aimed at increas-
O
ing the marriage and birth rates. Penalties were imposed
on men who were not married and rewards were extended for
marriage and the birth of children.^ These measures were
taken for the purpose of increasing the population of Rome
and thus extending its power and glory.
Roman authors, like the Greeks, also commented on
the eugenic element of population, although the interest in
i
quality was relatively minor. Seneca (4 B.C.-65A.D.), for j
example, stated that it was reasonable to separate the fit j
from the unfit at birth by the practice of infanticide.10
Three Types of Population Policy
It is apparent, then, that the three basic types of
population policy were developed during this early period
of history. The first of these, restrictive, calls for
limiting the total number of individuals; the second,
eugenic, aims at improving the quality of the group, and the
third, expansive, works toward increasing the total
® Edward M. East, Mankind at the Crossroads (New
York: Charles Scribner1s Sons, 192BJ, p. 45.
9 Whittaker, o£. cit.. p. 322.
10 Carr-Saunders, op. cit., p. 18.____________________
13
population.
Warren Thompson has described these three types of
population policies in considerable detail.1^ " The methods
for restricting the numbers of people, as outlined by
Thompson, include: infanticide, abortion, sexual taboos,
senicide, passive acceptance of recurring tragedies, war,
legal restrictions on marriage, migration, and contracep
tive practices.
The eugenic practices listed by Thompson are infan
ticide and selection of the superior for reproduction.
This authority also explains that the reasons for
engaging in an expansive population policy are of four
varieties: dynastic or personal motives, religious motives,
imperialism, and economic opportunity. He notes that the
last of these is by far the most important and efficacious.
II. THE MIDDLE AGES
There was little thought on population problems
during the Middle Ages. One of the doctrines of the
Scholastics, however, was that the proper functions of gov-
12
ernment included the maintenance of population. Saint
11 Warren S. Thompson, Population Problems (New
York: McGraw-Hill Book Co., Inc., 1942), pp. 5-14.
1 P
Lewis H. Haney, History of Economic Thought (New
_York.:___The_MacMillan_Corapany,_193D)-,—P*—103*-----------------
14
Thomas Aquinas (1227-1274), for example, believed that heavy
population could contribute to the strength of the state and
considered it important for the leaders to bear this in
raind.1^
Much later, Jean Bodin (1520-15 9 6) and Giovanni
Botero (1543-1617) wrote in favor of a large population on
14 1
the grounds that it made for a wealthier state.
III. THE SEVENTEENTH AND EIGHTEENTH CENTURIES
Modern study of population on a quantitative basis
I
began with the writings in the latter part of the seven
teenth century on what is generally termed Political Arith-i
metic. Scholars of note in this field include John Graunt,
Sir William Petty, and Charles Davenant.
Graunt (1620-1674) was an English statistician who
found that the rate of growth in cities was less than that
in rural areas. It was he who compiled the first vital
statistics, chiefly on birth and death rates in London and
outlying areas.^
13
Charles E. Stangeiand, Pre-Maithusian Doctrines of
Population (New York: The Columbia University Press, 1904),
P* 76.
14
Carr-Saunders, op. cit., pp. 21-22.
•*•5 Whittaker, oj>. cit.. p. 324.
15
A dense population was preferred by Petty (1623-
168 7) on the grounds that it would make government adminis
tration cost less per person. For proof of this view he
cited the densely-populated Dutch, who at that time had an
exceptionally high standard of living. The Dutch, he said,
live near each other for their mutual assistance in
trade.^ Petty also dealt at some length with the geo
metrical rate of population i n c r e a s e .^
It was Davenant’s (1658-1711 ! - ) belief that people are
the real strength of a country and that a dense population
makes invention, frugality, and industry necessary, therebyj
-1 Q
bringing riches to the nation. i
The Mercantilist School
These views of Petty and Davenant typify those of
the Mercantilist School, of which they were members. In
general, followers of this school believed that a large
population was desirable for purposes of both war and
increasing levels of production. They reasoned that cheap
and abundant labor was necessary to enable home products to
compete successfully with those of foreign lands and thus
^ Whittaker, loc. cit.
^ Carr-Saunders, o£. cit., p. 27.
Haney, o£. cit.. p. 135.
16
cause a favorable balance of trade.^
Other Mercantilist writers on population were Samuel
Fortrey, Sir Josiah Child, William Temple, and Sir Matthew
Hale. Hale (1609-16 7 6) endeavored to show that the numbers
of mankind must increase in a geometrical ratio unless
hindered by checks; and he considered an absence of suffi-
20
cient food the most important check.
The influence of these Mercantilist writers is seen
in the fact that leading nations of Europe during this
period passed laws encouraging matrimony and parenthood. 21
The Kameralists
i
The Kameralist writers, of the German states and
Austria, had theories similar to those of the Mercantilists,
1
including the belief that a dense population was desirable.
Johann Heinrich von Justi ( ? -1771), for example,
expressed the belief, in 1755, that no limit should be
placed on the Increase of population. 22
The Kameralists strongly emphasized population
increase largely because they were living and writing in
19 Ibid.. P. 134.
20 Carr-Saunders, op. cit.. pp. 26-2 7.
21 Haney, op. cit., p. 134.
22 P ‘ 160.
17
the period following the destructive Thirty Years War which
was characterized by loss of trade, waste, and depopula
tion. They were studying conditions far different from
those which later faced Maithus.23
Special note must be made of Johann Peter Sussmilch
(1707-1767), a Prussian army chaplain who was interested in
demography. Sussmilch stated the theory of a geometrical
rate of population Increase as it was later expounded by
Maithus. He was, in fact, quoted by Maithus in support of
the latter's own arguments. Sussmilch also contributed
important data concerning the influence of epidemics in j
24 '
cheeking population growth.
Montesquieu
Charles Louis Montesquieu (1689-1755) added to the
study of population problems by stating his belief that
people have a tendency to marry and bear children whenever
the means of subsistence permit it.2^
Cantillon1s Ideas on Population
The belief that population does not necessarily
23 Ibid.. p. 164.
oh.
Whittaker, o£. cit.. p. 327.
2^ Charles Louis Montesquieu, Spirit of the Laws
(New York: The Colonial Press, 1899), II, 6.
18
Increase to the limits set by the bare minimum of subsis
tence was expressed by Richard Cantillon (1680-173^) in his
famous Essay. He reasoned that men have different stand
ards of living and that these standards set limits to their
willingness to multiply. The subsistence standard was not
fixed as far as multiplication was concerned, he believed,
but was a matter of human decision. Cantillon used this
idea in attacking calculations regarding rates of popula-
tion increase.
The number of acres of farm land needed to support
an individual was a question that also received Cantillon's
i
attention. He concluded that from one and a half to ten 1
acres were required, depending on the standard of living
desired.
The Physiocrats
It was the belief of the Physiocrats that popula
tion would increase up to the minimum of subsistence. Mem
bers of this school had the idea of a subsistence wage,
which was that wage sufficient to maintain the laboring
class with possibly a little left over for luxuries and
of\
Richard Cantillon, Essay Upon the Nature of Com
merce in General (London: MacMillan and Co., Ltd., 193IT*
pp. 653J3.
Loc. cit.
19
2 8
savings.
One member of the Physiocratic School, P. S. DuPont
de Nemours (1739-1817)# deduced that the colonies of North
America doubled their population every twenty-five years
because of the unlimited means of subsistence available to
their inhabitants.2^
i
And another Physiocrat, Mercier de la Rlvere (1720-
1793)# saw the possibility of over-population. Men will
lack the means of subsistence, he warned, if they do not
multiply their means of cultivation at a ratio equal to
population increase.3°
f
IV. SOME FORERUNNERS OF MALTHUS
Increasing attention was given to population prob
lems during the latter half of the eighteenth century, and
many scholars of this period contributed substantially to
the Malthusian thesis.
Beniamin Franklin
In his Observations Ooncerning the Increase of
2^ Haney, ojo. cit.. p. 190.
29 Whittaker, op. cit.. p. 331*
3° Haney, o£. cit., p. 191.
20
Mankind, Peopling of Countries, etc. (1751)# Benjamin
Franklin (1706-1790), a new-world scholar, stated that
births are regulated by the means of support. He claimed
that subsistence acts as a check on population through the
operation of moral restraint; if the means of subsistence
are inadequate, Franklin explained, marriage will be post
poned or abstained from altogether. This, he maintained,
accounts for the low rate of population increase in cities
and in old nations.31
Franklin developed the important theory that neither
immigration or emigration affect the rate of population j
i
growth in a nation, provided the quality of the migrants is
I
the same as that of the home population. If people leave a
country, he said, their places are soon filled by the
newly-born; if settlers enter a country they merely crowd
out home-born babies.
As proof of this theory, Franklin said that if the
face of the earth were vacant of all other plants, it might
be sowed and covered with one kind only. In the same man
ner, he added, it might in a few ages be replenished with
31 Whittaker, o£. cit., pp. 332-31 *.
32 s. Howard Patterson, Readings in the History of
Economic Thought (Hew York: McGraw-Hill Book Company, Inc.,
1932), pp. 94-95.
21
men from only one nation, such as England.33
This theory was used by Franklin to support his plea
that the new world should be populated only with British.
He wanted the Palatine ’ ’boors1 ' (Pennsylvania Duthh),
Africans, Asiatics, Spaniards, Italians, French, Russians,
and Swedes kept out. Franklin's influence is seen in the
second edition (1 8 0 3) of Malthus1 important Essay where
acknowledgement is made of his contributions to thought on
■ a i l
population.J
Migration Again Considered
Richard Price (1723-1791), a British clergyman who ;
1
was friendly with Franklin, related migration to population
in a similar manner. But where Franklin was considering
the special conditions of a new country receiving immi
grants, Price was studying the case of an emigrating
country, Great Britain. He concluded that emigration has
no tendency to reduce population. When people leave a
nation, he said, there is increased means of subsistence
left for those who remain, and the vacancy is soon filled.35
33 Patterson, loc. cit.
3^ Thomas Robert Malthus, An Essay on Population
(London: J. M. Dent and Sons Ltd., 1 8 0 3), 17 ’ 5-6.
33 James Bonar, Theories of Population from Raleigh
to Arthur Young (New York: Greenberg, 1931), PP• 204-05.
22
Robert Wallace
Another clergyman, Robert Wallace (1697-1771) of
Scotland, wrote Various Prospects of Mankind, Nature and
Providence (London, 1761) in which he considered the possi
bility of an ideal form of government based on social and
economic equity. Wallace's pessimistic conclusion, however,
1
was that the increase in population that would stem from
such an ideal system would make that system impracti-
, 36
cable.
James Steuart
In his Political Economy (1 7 6 7), Sir James Steuart
I
(1712-1 7 8 0) observed that population tends to increase in
periodic spurts. He referred to these increases as oscil
lations and compared the generative faculty to a spring
loaded with a variable weight. This pressure, he explained,,
exerts itself in an inverse proportion to the amount of
resistance. When food supply is abundant (or resistance to
increase of population is low), for example, the spring
will exert itself; people will be better fed, they will
multiply, and gradually food will again become scarce.37
3 6 Whittaker, o£. cit.. p. 335*
37 sir James Steuart, Political Economy (1 7 6 7), vol.
1, book 1, chap. 4, p. 2 0.
V. ADAM SMITH ON POPULATION
23
One of the English writers who influenced Adam
Smith, Josiah Tucker (1712-1799), believed that a large
population was desirable and therefore advocated a tax on
celibacy.
But it was Smith’s (1723-1790) theory, as described
in his Wealth of Nations (Book I, Chapter Till) in 1776,
that the demand for men (labor) balances the supply.
Demand and supply in this instance, he reasoned, operates
in the same manner as with any other commodity. The demand
for men increases the supply when reproduction is going on '
too slowly, and slackens it when supply advances too
fast.it is this demand for men, he said, that regulates
and determines the state of propagation in all the nations
of the world.
Like the Physiocrat, P. S. DuPont de Nemours, Smith
spoke of the American colonies doubling their population
every twenty-five years because of the plentiful means of
40
subsistence available.
—
J Haney, o£. cit.. p. 210.
39 Adam Smith. Wealth of Nations (London: J. M. Dent
and Sons, Ltd., 1910), I, 71.
40 Ibid., I, 20.
241
i
It must be noted, however, that Smith limited his
supply and demand analysis of population change to members
of the laboring class. He assumed that the rate of
increase among the well-to-do was determined not by supply
and demand but rather by the conscious will of members of
this upper class. He emphasized the role of poverty as a
4i
check to population increase.
Poverty, Smith went on to say, doesn't discourage
marriage and child-bearing; it appears even to be favorable
to these activities. He noted that a half-starved Highland
woman often will bear some twenty children, while a lady
accustomed to luxurious living will have none or two or ;
i
three at the most. Barrenness, he pointed out, is frequent
among women of fashion but extremely rare among those of
inferior status. He theorized that luxury weakens and fre
quently destroys altogether the power of generation. Smith
added, however, that poverty is extremely unfavorable to
the rearing of children; the half-starved woman with twenty
children, he said, would generally be able to raise only
42
several to adulthood.
41 Ibid*. I, 62-70
42 Ibid.. I, 70.
2B
VI. SEVERAL OPTIMISTIC VIEWS
The pessimistic theories of population, as epito
mized by the thesis of Robert Wallace, were countered
toward the end of the eighteenth century by several opti
mistic scholars. Chief among these were William Godwin and
M. C. Condorcet.
William Godwin
In his Enquiry Concerning Political Justice and Its
Influence on General Virtue and Happiness (1793), Godwin
(1756-1 836) looked into the future with no fear. He i
j
believed that vast areas of the earth could still be
brought under cultivation and that those areas already
tilled could be used more efficiently; therefore, threats
of over-population were groundless. J
Godwin's work argued the perfectibility of mankind;
it described government as a necessary evil which was the
cause of the unhappiness and misfortunes of man. It also
iiii
struck out against the institution of private property.
This book was the target against which Malthus
directed his Essay on Population in 1798.
Whittaker, o£. cit., p. 335.
^ Haney, op. cit., pp. 260-6 1.
26
M. 0 , Condorcet
A tract with the same theme as that of Godwin was
written by M. C. Condorcet (171<-3-17920 , of Prance in 179^.
In this work, confidence was expressed in the possibility
of achieving happiness through the all-powerful operation
of science. Condorcet posed the question as to whether the
large population that would ensue from an increase in know
ledge could be fed; and his answer was that either science
would be able to increase the means of subsistence or
reason would prevent an inordinate growth of population.^
i
i
i
i
VII. CONCLUSION
The foregoing scholars are the most prominent of the
many who preceded Malthus on the subject of population.
They may be said to have laid the groundwork for the
thought-provoking Malthusian law of population. It is of
interest to note that the various elements of the Malthu
sian theory had been set forth by these earlier writers;
the concepts of limited food supply, geometrical rate of
population increase, and preventive and positive checks
on population were not new with Malthus.
^ Charles Gide and Charles Rist, A History of
Economic Doctrines (Boston: D. C. Heath and Co.. 1 9 $ 8 ).
p. 137.
CHAPTER III
POPULATION DOCTRINES OF MALTHUS
The first complete, systematic treatise on popula
tion was An Essay on the Principle of Population, first
published in 1798 by Thomas Robert Malthus. It is this
work which has served to the present day as a point of
departure for all studies of the subject. Warren S.
Thompson has observed that all modern studies of population
should start with Malthus, even though Malthus* ideas were
not altogether original and were modified considerably over
the course of time. 1
I. BIOGRAPHICAL SKETCH OF MALTHUS
Thomas Robert Malthus was born in County Surrey,
England, in 1766, the son of Daniel Malthus, a country
gentleman and scholar of some means. Young Malthus was
given an excellent education for the church at Cambridge,
from which institution he graduated with honors in 1 7 8 8.
After graduation he took a position as clergyman in a small
1 Warren S. Thompson, Population Problems (New York:
McGraw-Hill Book Company, Inc., 1942),p. 30*
28
p
parish in his native county.
Prom 1799 to 1802, Malthus traveled through Europe
in search of information relating to population and his
theory thereof. He visited Sweden, Norway, Finland,
Russia, France, and Switzerland.
In 1805 he was appointed professor of history and
political economy in a college founded by the East India
Company at Haileybury, near London; he kept his position
until his death in 1834.
Malthus was married at the age of thirty-nine and
had three sons and one daughter. ;
1
i
i
t
II. BACKGROUND FOR MALTHUS' THEORY
The theory put forth by Malthus represented his
effort toward explaining and solving the miserable condi
tions of the poor during his time. In a sense, his theory
was a culmination of many theories which the general social
and economic conditions of that period produced.
Malthus' motive was humanitarian. He was concerned
with the welfare of mankind; his theories on population
p
Biographical information was taken from: James
Bonar, Malthus and His Work (London: Richard Clay and Sons,
1 8 8 5), pp. 1-44; Charles Gide and Charles Rist, A History
of Economic Doctrines (Boston: D. C. Heath and Co., 1949J,
p. 135; and Lewis H. Haney, History of Economic Thought
(New York: The MacMillan Company, 1935>), pp. 257-5 8.
29
were reached in the process of trying to understand how
population growth was likely to affect human welfare.^
The horrible conditions among the poor at the time
of Malthus came about partly because the Industrial Revolu
tion had thrown many out of work and had reduced the
I
incomes of others. And those who worked were required to
toil long hours under unhealthful conditions in ill-
designed factories. Unemployment, poverty, and disease
U
were rampant.
These ills were compounded by the defective English
Poor Law which was in effect at that time. Rates, under
this law, were very high, sapping the independence of the
laborer, and placing a premium on incompetence and pauper
ism. It encouraged marriage and births among the poor and
5
thus further depressed wages for this class.
Furthermore, a series of bad crops had caused a food
shortage, and exhausting war years had aided in reducing
the standard of living in Britain. Distress in the agri
cultural sphere caused many to conclude that there were too
many people for the land to support. Similar conditions
3 Hannibal G. Duncan, Race and Population Problems
(New York: Longmans, Green and Co., 1929)” , p. 213.
^ Haney, o£. cit., p. 2 5 8.
^ Duncan, loc. cit.
30
prevailed in Ireland, and it appeared that there also over-
population was the cause of distress.
The situation in Britain was made still worse
because extension of the enclosure laws had forced many
rural people to seek employment in the cities.7
Malthus felt that the conditions accompanying the
growth of population required investigation, and he was
thus faced with the special interest that became his life’s
work. It was necessary for him to combat the still-
prevalent Mercantilist notion that a very dense population
was desirable. The government and the employing classes
generally favored a large and an increasing population as ai
I
source of cheap labor and large armies.
As noted earlier, the immediate reason for Malthus1
Essay was to answer the writings of William Godwin which
argued that government and private property were the causes
for man's unhappiness and misfortunes. Malthus' father,
Daniel Malthus, agreed with Godwin, but Malthus himself was
a strong dissenter.
III. THE MALTHUSIAN THESIS
Malthus' reply to Godwin took the form of his first
6 Haney, loc. cit.
_______ 7 Duncan, loc. cit.___________________________________
31
edition of An Essay on the Principle of Population which
was published anonymously in 1798* Malthus sought to show
that an abolition of government could not restore mankind
to peace and prosperity; he felt that the misfortunes of
man were to be found in his weak and imperfect nature.
The first edition of the Essay attracted Immediate
and wide attention and caused the author to continue his
investigations, no longer under the cloak of anonymity. A
second edition appeared in 1803, after his travels and
study in Europe. This edition was much larger than the
first, which was little more than an outline. As success
ive editions were published, they were revised and enlarged;
the sixth and last edition was dated 1 8 2 8.
1
j Basic Assumptions of the Thesis
Malthus, unlike Godwin and Condorcet, did not look
for improvement of man's status through a change in man
himself. He could see no evidence that man was changing or
I
1
was likely to change, and did not assume, therefore, that !
1
1
1 such change would take place. On the contrary, he made the j
fixed assumption that "the passion between the sexes is
o
necessary, and will remain nearly in its present state."
o
0 Thomas R. Malthus, An Essay on the Principle of
Population (London: J. M. DenF and Sons, Ltd., 1572), I,
viii.
32
This, and his second postulate, that "food is necessary for
the existence of man,form the starting point for his
discussion of population.
The Two Inter-acting Ratios
Malthus1 complete doctrine on the subject of popula
tion is better expressed in his later editions. The gist
of his thesis is that population has a constant tendency to
increase beyond the means of subsistence, and is kept to
its necessary level by various positive and preventive
checks, including moral restraint.
This conclusion rests upon the operation of three
factors. First, the rate of human increase based on sex
instinct is at a geometric ratio; that is, man has a ten
dency to Increase his numbers geometrically, 1-2-4-8-16-32-
64-128, etc.1^ Second, the rate of increase of the means
of subsistence tends toward an arithmetic ratio, such as
1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9, etc. 11 Third, there are various checks
12
on population increase.
■■■■■■■
9 Malthus, loc. cit. !
10 Ibid*. I, 10. I
11 Loc. cit.
12 Ibid., I, 12-19.
33
Regarding the first, Malthus stated that when popu
lation goes unchecked it doubles itself every generation;
that is, every 25 years.13 But as for the increase in food
resources, he believed that, even under circumstances most
favorable to human industry, the rate could not be greater
14
than in an arithmetic ratio.
These two tendencies might be combined and termed
the ratio of the increase of population to the increase of
subsistence; or, for any given time, the ratio of population
to subsistence. 13
The limit upon which Malthus centered his attention
was subsistence, meaning food. He assumed that food set
the ultimate limit upon population growth since mankind,
obviously, could never Increase beyond the minimum nourish-
i
ment necessary for support. He noted that the difficulty
in acquiring food placed a strong check on population and
that this check must be constantly in operation.1^
Malthus concluded that comparison of the unrestrained
natural increase of population with the increase in subsis-
'tence under the most favorable conditions enables one to
i
13 Ibid.. I, 8.
14 Ibid.. I, 11.
13 Haney, o£. cit., p. 264.
Malthus, Q£. cit.. I, 12.
34
determine the force of the tendency of population to outrun
subsistence.
The gist of this doctrine can be summarized in a
single sentence; that is, 1 1 it is the constant tendency of
population to increase beyond the nourishment available fori
it.”
It is important to note that Malthus wrote of ten
dencies. For example, he stated that population has a ten
dency to increase geometrically, and that this increase will
not take place if certain restraints are called into opera
tion.
Diminishing Returns
The increase in food production, Malthus said, tends
to progress in an arithmetic ratio; for example, an
increase in the productive powers of land would not make it
i
easier to increase still further land’s capacity for pro-
i
duction.
Land’s limited rate of increase in productivity
clearly rests on the law of diminishing returns; it is
apparent that Malthus understood this. The law, however,
was not explicitly stated in the Essay but rather remained
i
with the author as a tacit assumption.
Checks to Population
_______ In view of Malthus* first two principles, it is_____
35
necessary to analyze his checks to population increase.
The ultimate check, of course, is to be found in limits to
the food supply; this would be operative only in time of
famine. Immediate checks include all. diseases due to
scarcity of subsistence, and all causes prematurely weaken
ing the human body.^
Malthus divided his checks into two categories, pre
ventive and positive. The former category includes checks
which cause a decrease in the birth rate; they may be
classed as moral restraint and vice. By moral restraint,
the author meant postponement of marriage. This was the
only type of check which he accepted. The second category
of checks, positive, includes those which make for a shorter
life. Here may be listed wars, disease, famine, Infant
mortality, and other evils which arise from the laws of
nature. In his list of positive checks, Malthus also
included unwholesome occupations, severe labor, extreme
18
poverty, bad nursing of children, and city life.
By checks to population, Malthus meant any means by
i
which population is adjusted to subsistence. He noted that
in no state has the power of population to increase been
17 Ibid.. I, pp. 12-17.
Loc. cit.
36"
left to exert Itself without restriction.1^
Malthus acknowledged that certain checks operate to
limit population without regard to food supply. Among
these he included war, city crowding, some diseases, cus
toms, and religious practices.
Preventive and positive checks, Malthus observed,
vary inversely in their functioning. If preventive checks
are employed, he said, the positive checks will not be
called into use. And, of course, if preventive checks do
not operate, it will be left to positive checks to regulate
PO
population increase,
j Malthus* Recommendations
! As a solution to the population problem, Malthus
j recommended that each individual should abstain from mar-
I
j riage or any sexual intercourse until able to support a
i
I family. He emphasized that everyone has the power of avoid
ing the evil consequences to himself and to society that
21
iresult from the principle of population.
i
| This idea was a major point in Malthus' theory: that
i I
postponement of marriage will increase the age at which i
19 Ibid.. I, 15.
20 Loc• cit.
21 Ibid. IX, 160-61.
37
marriages occur and thus reduce the number of children per
marriage. In an ideal society, he said, no man whose earn
ings are sufficient to maintain only two children would put
himself in a position where he would have to maintain four
pp
or five.
Various other remedies were also suggested by Malthus.
He conceded that, as a temporary expedient, an improved
system of poor relief, designed not to breed dependence,
would do more good than harm. In addition, he was of the
opinion that more permanent relief could be obtained by
education of the masses, improvement of cottages, giving
free use of small tracts of land, and the establishment of
savings institutions. Education, he believed would prevent
a man from burdening society with children he could not
support.23
IV. CONCLUSION
The importance of the milestone which the Malthusian
theory represents in the study of population problems can
not be overemphasized. This importance is acknowledged even
by those scholars who seek to deny the validity of the
22 Malthus, loc. cit.
23 ibid.. II, 246-60.
38
theory.
The question of the merit of Malthus1 thesis will be
considered later. It must be pointed out now, however,
that Malthus spoke of "tendencies" in his discussion of
population; he did not say dogmatically that population or
the means of subsistence would follow a given pattern. Any
valid refutation of his theory, therefore, must disprove
the existence of these tendencies; merely pointing to his
torical development since his time does not prove Malthus
wrong. The vast increase in world population and world
food production since the publication of Malthus1 Essay
does not constitute disproof of the theory. The possibility
that these increases would take place was, in fact, ack-
qI l
nowledged by Malthus. ^
In his preface, Malthus stated that the general
scope of his reasoning would not be materially affected if
any of his "facts and calculations" should prove to be
incorrect.2^ His general theory, in other words, does not,
and was not intended to, rest on the accuracy of minor cal
culations. This should be considered by those critics of
Malthus who today seek to deny the basic soundness of his
Ibid. II, 261.
25 Ibid., I, 3.
conclusions.
Malthus1 accomplishments extend far beyond the field
of population. In addition to the famed Essay, his writings
include: Political Economy (1820), The Measure of Value
(1823), and Definitions in Political Economy (1 8 2 7). It is
difficult, Lichtenberger observed, to say in what field of
science Malthus has exerted the greatest influence; he
created two great concepts, the "law of diminishing
returns" in economics and the "struggle for existence" in
biology, in addition to setting the standard for all demo
graphic studies.^
t I
I i
I
26
J. P. Lichtenberger, Development of Social Theory
(New York: The Century Company, 1923)7 P• 27^.
CHAPTER IV
POST-MALTHUSIAN THEORIES OF POPULATION
The Malthusian thesis set off a controversy that has
continued to the present time. Many later scholars, notably
John Stuart Mill, accepted the thesis without qualifica
tion; while others, such as Bastiat, Carey, George, and
Marx, were strong in their denunciation of the theory.
Malthus wrote at a time when the effects of the
Industrial Revolution were not yet felt or even understood,
therefore many writers of a later date looked to that phe
nomenon for a solution to the ’ ’gloomy” predictions of j
jMalthus. This, of course, was in keeping with the optimism1
j of the period of growing industrialism. I
I I
! Several students of population, Doubleday and Sadler j
for example, searched for natural theories of population
growth that would refute and supersede the theory of
jMalthus. And others, Marx and George, sought to establish
population theories which would complement and strengthen
their particular political theories.
This chapter will review the nflajor contributions to
population theory made in the post-Maithusian period.
Beginning with the first reactions to Malthus by Godwin and
Place, it will continue through to the immediate past.
Included will be contributions to population study of a
technical nature, such as those made by Walker, Sidgwick,
and Messedaglia.
I. IMMEDIATE REACTIONS TO MALTHUS
William Godwin was the first to attempt a scholarly
refutation of Malthus. His efforts here are characterized
by increased emphasis on scientific developments and analy
sis of facts; his earlier writings, as was shown, were
largely in the realm of philosophy and theology.
An antagonist of Godwin and the first strong ally of
Malthus is seen in Francis Place, who wrote in the early
1820's.
Initial Attack by Godwin
The first important attack on Malthus' work came from
William Godwin, the writer who had provoked the Essay in the
first place. In 1820, Godwin published a book entitled
Of Population, an Inquiry Concerning the Power of Increase
!
in the Numbers of Mankind. Being an Answer to Mr. Malthus's j
Essay on that Subject. Although Godwin's work contained !
some ideas of significance, it had little effect on
42
contemporary thought.1
Godwin was especially critical of Malthus1 conten
tion that population increases at a geometrical progression.
j
He pointed out that the population of Sweden had shown
little increase over the recent past. History, he said,
revealed many examples of nations once populous which later
lost considerable numbers of their people.
It was also Godwin's belief that subsistence could
be made to increase at a rate equal to that of population.
He cited the increase in farm productivity made by Thomas
i
Coke, a famous agriculturalist of that era. A scarcity of
food that would limit population growth was declared to be
|so remote that it was beyond the realm of man's interest
1 ' - 2
land "might fairly well be left to providence."
Malthus* View Upheld
J Francis Place (1771-1854), a prosperous London
tailor and social reformer, described Godwin's book as a
plausible attempt to refute Malthus, but one utterly desti
tute of proof. The principle of Malthus stood, Place
declared, and he contributed his own idea for preventive
population check in the deliberate limitation of families j
1 Edmund Whittaker, A History of Economic Ideas (New
York: Longmans, Green and C o . 1^40), p. 341.
2 Ibid.. p. 341.
^3
through birth control. This, he felt, was better than the
moral restraint of Malthus, which actually meant postpone
ment of marriage.^ a limit to population was desired by
Place in order to restrict the supply of labor and hence
raise the wage rate.
In 1822 and 1833 Place printed a series of handbills
addressed to "Married Gouples of Both Sexes," which pre
sented Information then available on contraception. These
documents had a wide circulation in London and in the
industrial centers of England and some of them were repub
lished in the radical magazines of the period. Place's
step marked the beginning of the so-called "neo-Maithuslan"
movement, which later was called "birth control" and, more
recently, "planned parenthood." Unlike many of his suc-
i i
eessors, he was not molested by public authorities.
II. REFLECTIONS OF OPTIMISM
Thompson and Alison took the optimistic view that
population would not increase to the limits described by
Malthus because individuals would realize that added numbers
t
1 ■ " .. i " n
3 Ibid.. p. 3^3. |
^ Robert C. Cook, Human Fertility; The Modern
Dilemma (New York; William Sloane Associates, 19517, P« &7*
44
mean a sacrifice of necessities and luxuries. This theory
was given some acknowledgement by the British economist,
Nassau William Senior.
And Sismondi, of Prance, believed Malthus incorrect
in his limits to population on the grounds that depression
would set in and cause an earlier check on the rate of
increase.
But the strongest expressions of optimism, as will
be seen, came from Bastiat and Carey, political economists
known for their optimistic views on numerous subjects.
Most attacks on Malthus were directed at his state
ment of the geometrical rate of population increase.
William Thompson
The optimistic theory that a higher standard of
living diminishes the number of births was propounded by
jWilliam Thompson (1783-1 8 3 3), the Irish socialist.
Thompson believed that mankind has no disposition to breed
beyond its comforts, whatever standard they might be. And
\
the tendency toward indiscriminate breeding, he said,
uniformly decreases as knowledge and living standards
increase. He admitted that a rate of population increase
beyond the means of subsistence was not physically possible,
but he felt that human prudence held it in check.
________5,Jtfhittaker.,.. op..._cit.. ._p_._35I..________________________
45
These views were set forth in Thompson’s book, An
Inquiry into the Principles of the Distribution of Wealth
Most Conducive to Human Happiness, published in 1824.
He believed that when people live in comfort the
prudential check is able to prevent an undue increase in
population; but the prudential check does not operate, he
said, when living conditions are wretched. In the latter
case, Thompson explained, breeding goes on until the
standard of living is reduced.
Sir Archibald Alison
This point was also developed by a Scottish lawyer
and historian, Sir Archibald Alison (1792-1867), in The
Principles of Population, and Their Connection with Human
Happiness (London, 1840). Alison believed that population
did not inevitably press against the means of subsistence
because, as population expands, various factors come into
play to restrict further growth.
The development of human reason, the extension of
artificial wants among the people, and the indulgent habits
of civilized man, he said, are all incompatible with a
rapid increase in population. He pointed out that early
marriages and many children would make it impossible to
6 Ibid., p. 352.
46
satisfy these many wants. Family limitation and therefore
population limitation was the result, Alison concluded, of
man's desire to preserve his position on the social scale,
to rise in rank, and to accumulate property.?
To lower the birth rate among the poorer classes,
Alison said, it would be necessary to increase their demand
for luxuries and thus make them subject to the same cause
and effect as the higher groups.
Nassau William Senior
Following much the same reasoning as Alison, the
English economist Senior (1790-1864), looked upon the
future of population with less concern than was shown by
Malthus.
The solution to population pressure, he wrote, would !
i
be found in habits of prudence in contracting marriage and
<
in considerable superfluous expenditure. As these habits
exist only in a civilized and opulent society, he said, it
appears clear that, as a nation advances in civilization and
opulence, the positive checks are likely to be more and more
Q
superseded by the preventive.
7 Ibid.. PP. 352-53.
® Nassau William Senior, An Outline of the Science
of Political Economy (New York: Farrar and Rinehart, Inc.,
1939), pp. 30^40:
47
Senior stated, however, that there were few portions
of Europe in which the inhabitants would not be richer if
their numbers were fewer, or would not be richer in the
future if they would retard their rate of increase. He
emphasized that no plan for social improvement can be com
plete unless it includes both the means of increasing the
production of wealth and of preventing population from
q
making a proportionate advance.
Sismondi
Much attention was given to population problems by
Simondi de Sismondi (1773-1842), a French contemporary of
Malthus*. He believed, in fact, that the goal of political
economy was to discover the proportion between population
and wealth that would result in the highest possible well
being.^
Sismondi felt that the real limit to population was
i revenue; it is not limited by the subsistence which land
t
can produce, he said, but rather is checked by the inability
to get work and wages before such a limit can be reached.
It was Sismondi*s opinion, therefore, that Malthus was mis
taken regarding his ideas on the natural limits of
9 Ibid** P»
Lewis H. Haney, History of Economic Thought (New
York: The MacMillan Company, 193o), p. 39^
population.
In his preface, Sismondi emphasized that the limits
to population are respected by those who have, while they
are exceeded by those who have not.11
Optimism of Bastiat
In keeping with his general outlook, Frederic
Bastiat (1801-1 8 5 0) endeavored to restore the harmony to
the field of population theory which existed, prior to
Malthus, with Adam Smith’s demand and supply analysis. He
accomplished this to his own satisfaction by claiming that
economic benefit accompanied the growth of population. He
substituted a tendency toward increasing returns for the
I
tendency toward diminishing returns, thereby making checks
I unnecessary.12 j
I !
> Like Petty, he emphasized some of the advantages j
I j
j stemming from a dense population, such as the efficiency j
j which results from heavy use of resources by many people.
!The more people there are huddled together, he said, the
1
1
more a resource is used. He compared the use of city
i
streets and the small profits of city merchants with their I
11 Haney, loc. cit.
12
Frederic Bastiat, Economic Harmonies (Patfis:
Guillaumin and Co., 1884), pp. 113-17.
49
rural counterparts.^^ Bastiat said nothing, however, about
diminishing returns in the use of agricultural land.
Carey1s Similar Attitude
Henry C, Carey (1793-1879), in the United States,
took an optimistic view similar to that of Bastiat. He
felt that Malthusian advocates in Britain had accepted the
results of local factors as a general principle. Carey
referred here chiefly to the enclosure of land which had
i
driven laborers out of work, England's policy in Ireland,
and the repeal of the Corn Laws.
; Circumstances were obviously different in the new
world, Carey observed, where there were unlimited lands for
future cultivation. For the "dismal prophecies" of Malthus,
i
Carey substituted a conception of "simple and beautiful laws
i
i
by the action of which the supply of food and other raw j
i
materials is adjusted to meet the wants, and gratify the j
„llL I
tastes, of an increasing population. j
I
Carey also believed Malthus was wrong because his
i
teaching was contrary to God. In addition, he felt that an
increase in numbers meant an increase in wealth because
1^
Bastiat, loc. cit.
Henry C. Carey, Principles of Social Science
Philadelphia: J. B. Lippincott and Co., Ib5b), III, 325 •
there would thus be more producers of wealth and greater
division of labor. ^
The Malthusian view that only man increases at a
geometric ratio was also attacked by the new-world
theorist. Carey thought that the animal and vegetable
kingdoms could and would both increase at the same ratio.
Finally, he was of the opinion that an antagonism
between the intellectual and generative functions existed,
which caused the rate of population growth to decrease as
man becomes more highly developed. Thus, he said, the
supply of men is made equal to the demand by a self-acting
law. 17
Ill. NATURAL THEORIES
A number of writers evolved theories of population
which would refute Malthus on natural grounds. These
writers looked to nature for an optimistic solution to the
dilemma which he posed; they felt that nature provided some
counteracting force which would limit the rate of popula- j
I
tion increase naturally before the disastrous effects from j
I
i
" 1 1 1 1 1 . 1
Haney, op. cit.. pp. 32^-25. *
1 fi
Carey, o£. cit.. Ill, 313*
! 17 Ibid.. Ill, 311-
51
over-crowding would be felt.
Sadler1s Theory
Michael Thomas Sadler (1780-1 8 3 5), an English poli
tician, social reformer, and economist, expressed the view
in 1830 that the fecundity of human beings operates at an
" 1 ft
inverse ratio to the condensation of their numbers. 0
In crowded areas, Sadler reasoned, labor becomes
divided and thus diminished in its duration and intensity;
people grow happier and more prosperous, there is more ease
and luxury, and therefore the rate of reproduction is
lowered. A dispersed and scanty population implies, on the
other hand, a state of hard labor and extreme privation,
which, according to Sadler, causes an increase in the birth
rate.
The death rate, which combines with the birth rate
to set the rate of population increase, was not considered
by this writer. Neither did he consider the example of the
Chinese and the Hindus, who are the most crowded peoples in
the world and also the most fecund.
Thomas Doubleday
The theory of Thomas Doubleday (1790-1 8 7 0), an
i
Kenneth Smith, The Malthusian Controversy (London:
Routledge & Kegan Paul, 1951), pp. 190-97*
52
English radical reformer, was somewhat similar to Sadler's
but was expressed in terms of food rather than in terms of
density. Doubleday referred to a great general law for
both vegetable and animal kingdoms which stated that, when
ever a species or genus is endangered, a compensating
effort is invariably made by nature for its preservation
and continuance.1^
This action, Doubleday asserted, takes place whenever
such danger arises from a diminuation of the food supply.
The more crowded, then, the less nourished will be a given
people, and the higher will be the birth rate. A nation's
population growth is thus interpreted as being dependent on
the nourishment of its inhabitants. Poorly nourished
people will have an increasing population rate; adequately
nourished people will be steady in their numbers, and well-;
nourished people will have a decreasing rate of reproduc- ;
tion. !
Like Sadler, however, Doubleday did not consider the
death rate. He discussed the bearing of children but not
their growth to adulthood; and the latter, of course, is
unfavorable among a poverty-ridden people.
3-9 Thomas Doubleday, The True Law of Population
Shown to be Connected with the Food of the People(London:
George Pierce, lfc547), pp. 5-7.
53
John Rae
After residence and study in the Hawaiian Islands,
Rae (1796-1 8 7 2) was convinced that the Malthusian law did
not apply to conditions there. As a substitute, he formu
lated his law of effective desire which was set forth in
The Sociological Theory of Capital, which was published in
1 8 3 4.20
Rae’s theory was that, since man knows the results
from the act of propagation, he must have an effective
desire for children if he is to produce offspring in num
bers sufficient to increase population. Rae observed that
the population of the Hawaiian Islands remained steady
despite surplus food supplies; he reasoned, therefore, that
the effective desire for children was not strong. On the
1
other hand, Rae felt that the desire for offspring was
strong among European groups because of religious beliefs j
! and the death toll from wars. .
I
Herbert Spencer
In 1867, the English philosopher Herbert Spencer
(1820-1 9 0 3) expressed his belief that as complexity of life
increases, a reduction in fecundity takes place. He set
forth a natural law similar to those of Sadler and ,
I
1
_________ I
o n , I
John Rae, The Sociological Theory of Capital (New |
York: The MacMillan Company. 1905)~ PP. 354-5%.______________!
54
Doubleday. 21-
Spencer reasoned that, as the output of an indi
vidual's energy used in personal development increases, the
amount of energy available for reproduction decreases.
Thus, the Individual's efforts toward reproduction become
weaker as his adjustments, necessary to maintain himself
and achieve success, become more difficult. Through opera
tion of this natural law, Spencer, like Sadler and
Doubleday, foresaw the disappearance of population pressure
and its accompanying evils.
IV. JOHN STUART MILL
The more prominent supporters of Malthus during the
nineteenth century were James Mill, John Stuart Mill, John
MeCulloeh, and, in Germany, Karl Heinrich Rau.
John Stuart Mill combined the wages fund doctrine
with the Malthusian view to conclude that a limitation of
i
(population is necessary if better wages are to be obtained
i •
I ?P
for the working classes. He dwelt especially on the sin I
of calling human beings into the world when the means to
21 Herbert Spencer, The Principles of Biology (New
York: D. Appleton & Company, I867-I8 6 0), II, 485-86.
22 John Stuart Mill, Principles of Political Economy
(London: Longmans, Green and Co., 19 2 9), pp. 373-84.
support them were not available. The feeling of responsi
bility in parents, he said, should be strengthened, and the
consequences of over-population should be made clear to
all.23
Little advance can be expected, Mill wrote, until
the creation of large families is regarded with the same
24
feeling as drunkenness or any other physical excess. He
went further than Malthus in the advocacy of preventive
checks to population increase.
Mill also emphasized effects from the law of dimin
ishing returns. "It is in vain to say," he wrote, "that
all mouths which the increase in mankind calls into exis
tence, bring with them hands. The new mouths require as
much food as the old ones, and the hands do not produce as
much."23
V. POPULATION AND POLITICS
Karl Marx and Henry George propounded population
theories as part of their respective political beliefs.
Both writers were optimistic regarding population increase
and strongly refuted Malthus. They felt that acceptance of
23 IbjLd*. P* 375.
^ Loc• cit.
2 5 Ibid. ,,_p,._l9.1»______________________________________
56
their economic theories would make for an Idyllic society
which would provide for an unlimited number of people and
thus make concern over increases in population unnecessary.
Communist Dogma
Karl Marx (1818-1 8 8 3) and his followers have denied
that poverty and hardship are the result of any natural
tendency of man to produce more children than can be pro
vided for. Their theory is that a low standard of living
results from shortcomings In the economic system prevailing
at a given time which make full employment impossible.
Marx claimed that there is no fixed law of popula
tion, but each age and society has a law of population of
its own arising from the particular circumstances of Its
existence. Capitalistic nations, he said, have created too
much fixed capital, and therefore have too many laborers.
But under socialism, Marx argued, there could not possibly
p 6
be a surplus of workers, or over-population, or poverty.
The fact remains, however, that the enormous capital
!
accumulation and industrialization of the post-Marx years |
1
i
have greatly Increased employment opportunities and popula
tion. Therefore, a group of neo-Marxians, beginning with
1
___________________ 1
26
Karl Marx, Capital: a Critical Analysis of
Capitalist Production (New York: Humboldt Publishing
| Company, T890), p p " . 396-9 8.
57
Rosa Luxemburg, have revised the master's doctrine. Their
view is that the capitalistic nations have resorted to
markets in backward, non-capitalistie regions, and thus
postponed the effects predicted by Marx. But as soon as
these areas become industrialized and no longer furnish a
convenient dumping ground for industrial products, the
unemployment and poverty predicted by Marx will result.2^
The communist party line at present, as in the past,
is that under the glories of a eommunized society there
could be no such thing as over-population or a population
problem.
The Georgian View
An optimistic view of population Increase, similar
to that of Carey and Bastiat, was taken by Henry George !
i
(1839-1897), the American economist known chiefly for his j
1
single tax theory.
George maintained that a dense population increases j
wealth and makes for a high standard of life. It is appar-j
i
ent everywhere, he said, that the production of wealth to a
28 '
given amount of labor increases as population increases. !
I
1
i
2^ Encyclopedia of the Social Sciences (New York: 1
The MacMillan Company, T 93^)"," XII, 2 5 1. - I
a O I
Henry George, Progress and Poverty (Garden City,
New York: Doubleday, Page and Company, 1926), pp. 228-29.
58'
Regarding agricultural productivity, he claimed that
as poorer soils are turned to because of increased popula
tion, the loss in fertility is more than compensated for by
the fact that the power of the human factor is vastly
increased,
As population becomes more dense, he said, the sub
division of labor becomes more minute; hence the very
reverse of the Malthusian doctrine is true. Twenty men
working together where nature is niggardly, George said,
will produce more than twenty times the wealth that one man
can produce where nature is bountiful.3°
VI. SOCIAL THEORIES
Several social theories of population were formulated
during this period. These theories sought to describe
population growth as part of the natural pattern of social
f
development. They were optimistic theories in that they j
placed population increase (or decrease) in the role of a j
dependent, and thus concluded that conditions beyond the
c o n t r o l of man dictate the trend of population. j
29 Ibid.. pp. 239-41.
30 PP- 107> 162-72.
59
Social Capillarity
The theory of social capillarity was propounded by
the Frenchman, Arsene Dumont (1849-1902), in 1 8 9 0. This
theory reasons that the individual, like oil in the wick of
a lamp, tends to mount to higher levels in his social
environment, and that in the process of climbing he becomes
less and less likely to reproduce. This occurs because he
is drawn from his natural surroundings and from his family
and therefore loses interest in children and the welfare of
his race.^ 1
Dumpnt reasoned that in a society where movement
from class to class is easily accomplished, social capil
larity is as inevitable as gravity. And he regarded such
class migrations as directly related to the decline in
birth rates in some European nations. The development of
numbers,in a nation, he said, is in an inverse ratio to the j
1
development of the individual. His theory was proved, he |
felt, by the experience of France, in one direction, and of J
1
India, in the other.
Gini1s Theory
Corrado Gini (1884- ) propounded a theory of
population growth that is also a theory of social evolution
31 Encyclopedia of the Social Sciences (New York:
The MacMillan Company, 1931), V, 273-74. 1
6o
in that the development of nations is made to depend on
changes in their population growth.
Gini described the process of the growth of nations
as the cyclical rise and fall of nations. This cycle of
growth, he said, is similar to the life cycle of an indi
vidual. He divided this cycle into three periods: first,
there is a period of extremely rapid growth; this is fol
lowed by a period of slower growth, and finally, there is a
period of senescence. In the last, Gini said, the quantity
as well as the quality of a civilization deterioriates. He
reasoned that more people reach the upper classes and hence
■22
a larger percentage are less productive.
It was Gini's belief, therefore, that some inevitable
and natural force determines the rise and fall of popula- |
tion.
Pearl!s S-curve
Raymond Pearl (1879- ), an American biologist,
concluded that population growth typically takes the form
of a flattened and sloping S-shaped curve. That i§, he felt
that population growth is slow at first, then increases at a
geometric progression while checks are not yet applicable,
32 corrado Gini and others, Population Lectures on
the Harris Foundation (Chicago: The University of Chicago
Press, 1930), pp. 3-9.
6i
and finally tapers off when checks begin to take effect.
His curve, then, is flat at first, then rising, and then
flat again at the top.33 pearl evolved this theory after
study of population growth in the United States, France, anc.
Germany, and study of the growth of various biological
species.
Carr-Saunders1 Optimism
It was the belief of A. M. Carr-Saunders that man
has always strived to attain the optimum population. This
he described as the number which, taking into account the
nature of the environment, the degree of skills employed,
the habits and customs of the people, and all other rele
vant factors, results in the highest average per capita
return. Carr-Saunders felt that man's growth in numbers,
therefore, has always been more or less controlled with a
view to attaining this economic optimum, which, of course,
varies for every group from time to time.
VII. FURTHER STUDY OF POPULATION
The body of knowledge concerning population was
33 Raymond Pearl, The Biology of Population Growth
(New York: Alfred A. Knopf, Inc., 19257, PP« 5-24.
3^ A. M. Carr-Saunders, The Population Problem
(Oxford: The Clarendon Press, _1922_)_, pp. .200-03._____
62
considerably broadened during this period, thereby making
subsequent theorizing more accurate and more academic.
Many of the contributions to population study came from
scholars, such as Walker, Sidgwick, and Messedaglia, who
had no fixed population theories of their own to champion.
The Displacement Principle
The American economist, Francis A. Walker (1840-
1 8 9 7), was the first theorist to enunciate the displacement
principle of population movement, originally seen by Ben
jamin Franklin, as a clear-cut population law. Walker was
superintendent of the United States Census of 1870 and 1880,
and in that capacity gained much knowledge of population
facts and theory.
He discovered that the rate of population increase j
1
in the United States followed the same trend, decade after |
i
decade, regardless of the amount of immigration. In other j
I
words, he found that immigrants simply displaced the domes-j
1
tic reproduction; without immigration the native Americans i
would reproduce In greater numbers.35
Using population growth figures from 1790, Walker
found that birth rates fell off most in those parts of the
nation where immigrants had settled in the greatest numbers.1
3 5 Francis A. Walker, Discussions in Economics and j
LsjbatlstlbS_CNew_Y,ork:_Henry__Holt_and„Cjc>mpany,_1899.L-PP-.^l9“92.
63
Henry Sidgwick
The theory of an optimum population was outlined by
Henry Sidgwick (1838-1 9 0 0) in The Prinoiples of Political
Economy, 1 8 8 7. His reasoning included a clear description
of the law of diminishing returns to land.^
This scholar pointed out that increasing returns
accrue to a thinly-populated area due to the advantages of
cooperation and the division of labor. There is no limit
j to increasing returns in industry, he said, but a point is
| reached in agriculture and mining where the optimum is
passed and decreasing returns per worker become the rule.^7
Sidgwick noted that industry permits larger popula
tion. The optimum population for a given area, therefore,
depends on the development of the industrial arts and the
accumulation of capital, and it tends to be continually
advanced through invention and investment.^
The point at which diminishing returns, commence
depends upon circumstances which cannot be forecast with
accuracy, Sidgwick emphasized. He made it clear, however,
that a point of maximum per capita returns always exists,
3 6 Henry Sidgwick, The Principles of Political
Economy (London: MacMillan and Company, 1U U7), pp. l40-50.
37 Ibid., pp. 288-90.
38 Ibid.. pp. 150-56.
64
and that its position changes with changing circumstances.
Geometric Progression Attacked
Angelo Messedaglia (1820-1901), an Italian economist
strong in mathematics and statistics, modified the Malthu
sian idea of a geometric rate for population increase. He
argued that even as a tendency the geometric ratio could
not persist; the food supply, he said, would he reduced per
capita as population increased, and this would impair
reproductive ability and result in a slower rate of growth.
Pour persons, Messedaglia said, would tend to produce not
8 but 6 offspring, the result being an arithmetic progress
ion, though still more rapid than the one governing food
increase.39
VIII. CONCLUSION
This chapter has reviewed contributions to popula
tion theory and study from the time immediately following
Maithus to the recent past. All writers who propounded
population theories of note, and all scholars who added
substantially to academic knowledge of population are men
tioned.
It is apparent that no agreement was reached during
39 Haney, op. cit., p. 678*
65
this period on the major issue of population. Many of
those reviewed above accepted the theory of Malthus, in
whole or in part, and many were strong in their refutation
of it.
Despite the fact that definite conclusions were not
reached, however, the body of knowledge on the subject was
greatly increased. As a result of the efforts during this
period, contemporary scholars are better equipped to study
and analyze problems dealing with population.
CHAPTER V
GROWTH OF WORLD POPULATION
A clear understanding of current population trend
and possible future population requires a detailed know
ledge of the growth of world population. This chapter is
designed to provide that knowledge. It will review the
historical increase of world population, the rates of that
increase, population density in different continents, and
the rates of increase in nations of the world.
I. HISTORICAL INCREASE IN NUMBERS
Edward M. East, in his Mankind at the Crossroads,
j noted that world population increased at a slow rate until
the beginning of the 19th century. At that time, he said,
the population of the world was 850 million. But it
doubled in the next 100 years; in 1850, for example, popu
lation stood at 1 .1 billion, and by 1900 it had reached
1 .6 5 billion. He predicted that by the year 2000 It would
be 3 .5 billion. 2
1 Edward M. East, Mankind at the Crossroads (New
York: Charles Scribner's Sons, 1925’ ), pp. 6 6-6 7.
________2 Ibid.. p. 346.______________________________ ________
67
The annual rate of Increase, he explained, was 0.7
per cent during the 19th century, but had reached 1 .1 6 per
cent by the time he wrote. That rate indicated an addition
of some 20 million people every year, and a doubling of
world population in 60 to 70 years.^
East’s figures conform rather closely with Edward B.
Reuter's estimates of population increase since the middle
4
of the 17th century, which are as follows:
Year Population
1650 465,0 0 0 ,0 0 0
1750 660,000,000
1800 8 3 6,0 0 0 ,0 0 0
1850 1,0 9 6,0 0 0 ,0 0 0
1900 1,551,0 0 0 ,0 0 0
1929 1,8 2 0,0 0 0 ,0 0 0
It is apparent from the above that the population
of the world has been increasing at a continually advancing
rate. The annual rate of increase has jumped from an
! estimated 0 .2 9 per cent in the 17th century to a current
rate of about one per cent. Century figures of annual
growth are as follows:-*
3 I6id., p. 6 7.
^ Edward B. Reuter, Population Problems (New York:
J. B. Lippincott Company, 1937), p. 32.
World Population in Transition. The Annals of
the American Academy of Political and Social Sciences
(Philadelphia: January, 1945), p. 3*
68
Period
v Annual Rate
(per cent)
1650-1750
1750-1800
1800-1850
1 85 0-1 9 0 0
1900-1940
0.29
0.44
0.51
O .6 3
0.75
Comparison will show that the rate figures in the
foregoing table are slightly lower than the several esti
mates of East, given earlier. But both sources make it
clear, however, that the rate of growth is constantly on
the increase.
Rate of Increase Considered
Robert R. Kuezynski has questioned estimates of cur
rent world population increase by Carr-Saunders, Knibbs,
Ross, and others, on the grounds that they reflect poor
census taking. He stated that an annual rate of increase of
/r
five eighths of one per cent is more likely.
Kuezynski pointed out, however, that this degree of
difference is not very important. Even at his estimated
rate of growth the world would double its population in 110
years, and hence, he concluded, remedial action must be
taken to decrease the rate of growth.
^ Corrado Qini, and others, Population Lectures on
the Harris Foundation (Chicago: The University of Chicago
Press, 19 3 0), p. 2 8 7.
69
Recent Population Increase
United Nations population experts in 1951 reported
an increase of total world population over the previous
three decades from 1,834,000,000 to 2,378,000,000; in other
words, an increase of some 544,000,000 persons since 1 9 2 0.
This, it was pointed out, indicated an annual increase of
about one per cent, a rate that would mean doubling of total
world population in less than 100 years.^
The UN experts noted that Latin America was the fast
est growing area, with an annual rate of increase of about
two per cent. This was attributed to scientific develop
ments which decreased the death rate without an accompany
ing decrease in the birth rate.
The gain in the population of the world— the net
increase of births over deaths— is today more rapid than at
any time in the past. It amounts to about 68,000 human
beings every 24 hours. This rate indicates an annual world ,
I
increase of 25 million per year. At this rate the number of
people will double in less than 100 years; the last doubling
took 135 years.®
According to the United Nations' Demographic
. . . . . . j
7 New York Times. March 28, 1951•
Q
Robert C. Cook, Human Fertility: The Modern
Dilemma (New York:' William Sloane Associates, 1951), P* 64. j
70
Yearbook for 1952, the total population of the world had
Q
increased from 1920 to 1951, as shown below:^
Year World population
1920 1,8 1 3,0 0 0 ,0 0 0
1930 1,9 8 7,0 0 0 ,0 0 0
1940 2,213,0 0 0 ,0 0 0
1950 2,411,000,000
1951
2,438,000,000
Decreasing Death Rate
The role of a decreasing death rate in population
increase was pointed out recently by statisticians of the
United Nations.10 They stated that the median death rate
dropped from 18.9 in the 1930 to 1932 period to 1 3 .7 for
the years 1948 to 1950. They attributed this decline to
advances in medical knowledge and practice which decrease
mortality rates, especially among infants. This decrease
in death rates coupled with rising or stationary birth J
rates, it was noted, makes it possible for 19 nations of J
i
the world to double their population in 28 years.
World Population Estimates
In 1947 the U. S. Department of State reported the i
|
world population at approximately 2,250,000,000. This, it i
i
j
^ Demographic Yearbook (New York: Statistical I
Office of the United Nations, Department of Economic I
Affairs, 1952), p. 102. !
10 '
_New York_Times,_March_l6,_1952....____________________________ i
71
said, is the result of an increase of some 17 million each
year during the previous decade. The world’s present rate
of population growth was estimated by this source at 0.9
11
per cent per year.
If this rate continues, the report said, the 21st
century will see the world with a total population about
half again as large as it is now. However, it predicted
that the immediate future would see even larger annual pop
ulation increments.
This study indicated a world population total at the
end of 1955 of some 2,438,000,000 people, an annual incre
ment of almost 21 million over the intervening years.
II. WORLD POPULATION AND DENSITY BY REGION
The population of the world and density of population
by continental divisions was outlined In the United Nations’
Demographic Yearbook for 1952. A summary of this informa- j
i
tion is shown in Table I. It must be pointed out that this I
'
information, like other data in the Demographic Yearbook I
and various United Nations’ publications, is compiled from
figures submitted by the member nations and other nations
j
11 World Population Estimates, Department of State,
] Division of International and Functional Intelligence,
! Office of Intelligence Research, Report No. 4192, March 1,
Ll947.,._PJ?^lr4,____________ _ ____
72
TABLE I
POPULATION AND DENSITY OF CONTINENTS
MID-YEAR 1951*
Continent Population
Population per
Square Kilometer
North America 171,0 0 0 ,0 0 0 8
Central America 52,0 0 0 ,0 0 0
18-19
South America 113,0 0 0 ,0 0 0
6-7
Asia (ex. USSR) 1,2 9 5,0 0 0 ,0 0 0 46-50
Europe (ex. USSR) 396,0 0 0 ,0 0 0 8 0 -8 1
Africa 2 0 0,0 0 0 ,0 0 0
6-7
USSR** 193,0 0 0 ,0 0 0
9
Oceania 13.300.000 2
Total 2,438,000,000 18
* Source: Demographic Yearbook, Statistical
Office of the United Nations, department of Economic
Affairs, 1952, p. 102.
** Data for the USSR is taken from the 1951
Demographic Yearbook and is for mid-year 1950*
73
of the world. Little effort Is made to check the accuracy
of the figures; they are, however, the best data available
in the world today.
III. WORLD POPULATION GROWTH BY CONTINENTS
After making an exhaustive study of population esti
mates from the 17th century to the current period, Walter F.
Willcox reported population and its growth by continents
from the year 1650 to 1935* These figures, as presented in
his Studies in American Demography, are compiled in Table
II. Expressed percentage-wise, Willcox’s population esti
mates are as shown in Table III.
Willcox's population figures were projected to more
recent dates, 1939 and 19^6, by Warren S. Thompson in his
1
latest work, Plenty of People. These figures, both in j
1
absolute amounts and as percentages, are shown in Table IV. j
1
I
t
IV. CURRENT RATES OF INCREASE
I
i
The rates of population increase for different
nations will now be considered. These data are gained from
a study of crude birth and death rates for the countries
1
concerned, and from knowledge of immigration and emigration.1
The great variation among the various countries in
birth rates, death rates, and rates of increase will be seen
74
TABLE II
ESTIMATED POPULATION OF THE WORLD AND ITS
DISTRIBUTION BY CONTINENTS, 1650-1935
(in millions)*
Continent 1650 1750 1800 1850 1900
1935
Asia 260 441 600 664
879 1,045
Europe 100 140 188 266 401 528
Africa 100 100 100 100 141 148
No. and Cent.
America )
8
6
15 39
106 178
So. America)
5
14 20 38 86
Oceania 2 2 2 2 6 10
Total 470 694
919 1,091 1,571 1,995
* Source: Walter F. Willcox, Studies in American
Demography. Ithica: Cornell University Press, 1940. P. 45.
75
TABLE III
PERCENTAGE DISTRIBUTION OF POPULATION
1650-1935*
Continent 1650 1750 1800 1850 1900
1935
Asia
55.3 6 3 .5 6 5 .3 60.9
5 6 .0 5 2 .4
Europe
21.3
20.2
2 0 .5
24.4
2 5 .5 2 6 .5
Africa
21.3
14.4
1 0 .9 9.1
9 .0 7 .4
No. and Cent.
America }
1 * 7
.9
1.6 3.6
6 .7 8 .9
So. America)
.7 1.5
1.8 2.4
4.3
Oceania .4
.3
.2 .2 .4
.5
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
♦Source: Walter F. Willcox, Studies in American
Demography. Ithica: Cornell University Press, ~19'4Ch P. 45. ;
7 6
TABLE IV
ESTIMATED POPULATION OF THE WORLD AND ITS
DISTRIBUTION BY CONTINENTS, 1939 AND 1946*
Continent
1939
1946
1939
1946
(in millions) (percentage)
Asia
1,079 1,199 52.7
54.0
Europe 542
533
2 6 .1 24.0
Africa
157 173 7.5
7.8
No. and Cent.
America 184
203 8.8
9.1
So. America
89
101
4.3 4.5
Oceania 11 12
• 5 .5
Total 2 ,0 8 0 2,221 100.0 100.0
♦Source: Warren S. Thompson, Plenty of People. New i
York: The Ronald Press Company, 1948"^ FT 1ST j
O
i
I
i
77
in the tables to follow. More detailed analysis of nations
with high rates of increase or low rates of increase, and
of nations with particular population conditions will be
made in Chapter VI.
Birth and Death Rates by Nation
Crude birth rates and crude death rates for various
nations of the world, taken from the Demographic Yearbook.
are shown in Table V. These figures, submitted by the
nations concerned, represent live births per 1000 popula
tion and deaths per 1000 population.
Rate of Increase per Nation
The percentage rate by which various nations of the
world are increasing their numbers is of great significance
in population study. The rate of increase for a particular
nation is found by subtracting the death rate from the
i birth rate, both of which are given in “per thousand"
figures and, to arrive at a percentage, dividing by ten.
These rates, taken from the Demographic Yearbook,
are presented in Table VI. It will be seen that the fig
ures do not always agree with the birth rate and death rate
figures for a given nation. This is because the former
J take into account immigration and emigration and, further-
'more, are presented as a trend rather than as data for a
[.particular year.___________________________________________
TABLE V
CRUDE BIRTH RATES AND DEATH RATES BY NATION
MID-YEAR 1951*
Nation Birth Rate Death Rate
Argentina 24
Australia
22.9 9.7
Austria 14.6
12.7
Belgium 1 6 .1
12.7
Canada 27.1
9.0
Chile 32.4
15.7
Costa Rica 47.6
11.7
Denmark 1 7 .8 8 .8
Egypt 41.8 2 0 .6
France 19.4 1 3 .2
Greece 2 6 .1
10.7
Honduras 38.4
10.7
Iceland
27*5
7.8
India 2 5 .8 1 6 .6
Italy 1 8 .1
10.3
Jamaica
. 33.9
1 2 .1
Japan 2 5 .6 1 0 .0
Mexico 44.2 17.2
Netherlands
22.3 7.5
Nicaragua 41.4
10.9
Norway
18.5
8.3
Panama 32.4 9.6
Poland 30.5
1 1 .6
Portugal 24.2
12.3
Spain 2 0 .1 1 1 .6
Sweden 1 5 .6
9.9
Switzerland 1 7 .2
10.5
United Kingdom 15.9
1 2 .6
United States 24.5 9-7
Venezuela
44.3
1 1 .2
* Source: Demographic Yearbook, Statis
tical Office of the United Nations. Department
of Economic Affairs, 1952. Pp. 224-31, 264-
73.
TABLE VI
RATE OF POPULATION INCREASE BY NATION
MID-YEAR 1951*
Rate of Increase Rate of Increase
Nation Per cent Nation Per cent
Argentina
2.13
Mexico 2.66
Australia .96 Netherlands 1 .1 8
Austria
.33
New Zealand 2.36
Belgium .30 Nicaragua 2.34
Brazil
2.53
Norway .94
Canada
1.97
Panama 2.86
Chile 1.60 Philippines
1.91
Costa Rica 2.32
Poland
.89
Denmark
1.05
Portugal
.95
Egypt 1.81 Puerto Rico
1 .6 9
France
-.34
Romania —. 22
Greece
1.37
Spain .62
Honduras 2.66 Sweden 1.09
Iceland
1.73
Switzerland 1.12
India 1.26 United Kingdom .44
Italy
.73
United States 1.36
Jamaica 1.70 U.S.S.R. 1.14
Japan 1.09
Venezuela
2.91
ssssmx
* Source: Demographic Yearbook. Statistical Office of the United
Nations, Department of Economic Affairs, 1952. Pp. 103-20.
80
It is interesting to note that nations of Europe, in
general, have the lowest rate of increase, while the high
est rates belong to Latin American countries. France and
Romania, as can be seen, have minus rates, that is, rates
of decrease rather than rates of increase.
V. CONCLUSION
It Is clear from the foregoing study of population
growth that the population of the world is increasing and
will cohtinue to increase over future decades. The extent
of this future increase, however, is not so clear. Later
chapters will consider possible future rates of population
increase for the world, as well as factors affecting the
rate. i
i
It is enough here to note that United Nations popu
lation experts stated recently that a world population of
3.6 billion is possible by the year 19 8 2. This figure is
based on growth trends which indicate a maximum increase
from 1952 to 1982 of 1 .2 billion or a minimum increase of
one-half billion. 12 j
These experts emphasized that the rate of populationj
increase has accelerated over past years. The world i
12 New York Times. April 21, 1952.
81
population of 2.4 billion In 1950, they pointed out, repre
sents a five-fold increase over the previous 300 years and
a 50 per cent increase since 1900.
CHAPTER VI
AREA STUDIES IN POPULATION
Outstanding examples of those nations of the world
that suffer from over-population will be discussed in this
chapter. Attention will also be given to various areas
which have a rapid rate of population increase and thus are
threatened with the results of over-population in the near
future.
In addition, other nations, such as Eire and Italy,
which have conquered or are conquering the population prob
lem, will be studied. And mention will be made of popula
tion trends in Europe and the United States, with the possi
bility of over-population in the latter region pointed out.
Population alone will be discussed in this chapter.
I
What constitutes over-population, or an unfavorable man-lanc
ratio, will be shown in the following chapter.
Here we will begin with a classification of the areas
of the world according to their standard of living and
their birth and death rates.
I. REGIONAL CLASSIFICATION
I
j
_______ In a booklet entitled Point 4. published in 1950 Ly i
83
the United States Department of State, the population
experts Frank Notestein and Warren S. Thompson grouped the
different areas of the world according to their standard of
living and their birth and death rates.1 These three cate-
gories were arranged, as described below, with the first
including those nations with a high standard of living, the
second including nations with a medium standard of living,
and the third including nations with a low standard of
living. About 20 per cent, 20 per cent, and 60 per cent,
respectively, of world population fell in each of these
groups.
This system of classification makes it clear that
the nations with a low birth rate and low death rate have
the highest standard of living, while the nations with a
t
high bihth rate and high death rate have the lowest stand-
r
j ard of living. In between are those nations of the world
with a high but declining birth rate and a relatively low
death rate.
Group I Nations
In this group are the nations of Western Europe,
North America, and Oceania (Australia and New Zealand). i
J
i
i---------------------------- I
I ^ Point 4, U. S. Department of State, Washington,
ID. C.: Government Printing Office, 1950*
i
84
The average annual per capita income in this group was
estimated at $465, and the calorie intake was 3040 per
person per day, or about one million a year. The average
span of life was 63 years, and, as noted, both birth and
death rates were low.
Group II Nations
Nations included in this group are the U.S.S.R.,
the Balkans, Argentina, South Africa, and Japan; in all,
about 20 per cent of world population. The average per
capita income was about $154, and the average citizen con
sumed 2760 calories daily. Life expectancy was 52 years.
These nations had a high but declining birth rate and a
relatively low death rate.
I
Group III Nations
Asiatic nations, South and Central America (except j
Argentina), and Africa (except South Africa) were placed in !
this group. It comprised about 60 per cent of world popula
tion, or some 1,440,000,000 people. Annual per capita
I
I
income was about $4l and the daily calorie consumption was
2150, consisting largely of cereals and potatoes. How
insufficient this calorie intake is becomes clear when it
is compared with the estimated minimum 2500 calories needed
daily by the average Industrial worker. In these nations
the high birth rates and high death rates prevailing make
85
the average life expectancy only 30 years; half of those
born are dead before reaching their 20th birthday. Eighty
per cent of the people are illiterate.
Spengler* s Classification
In the January, 1949 issue of the Proceedings of the
Academy of Political Science, Joseph J. Spengler makes a
similar classification of the world's peoples, with almost
p
identical population groupings. Spengler labels his three
groups as stationary, proto-stationary, and expanding,
according to the degree of population increase in each
category.
While his conclusions are similar to those of
Notestein and Warren, Spengler includes additional data on
the three groups. He notes, for example, that the per centj
I
of occupied population engaged in agricultural pursuits is |
22.3, 5 6.6, and 74.7, respectively, in the three classifi
cations. In addition, he states that the typical per cent
of calories of animal origin consumed by members of the
three groups is 20 to 40, 10 to 15, and under 10, respec
tively.
p
Proceedings of the Academy of Political Science,
January, 1949.
II. PROGRESS OP THE IRISH
86
In the course of the past one hundred years, Ireland
has advanced from its status as the poorest country to one
• 3
of the richest countries, per capita, in Europe. And this
progress has been directly attributed to a wholesale out
flow of population accompanied by ever-decreasing birth
' 4
rates.
Between 1840 and 1940, the area that is now Eire
decreased in population from 6,548,000 to 2,992,034. No
other modern nation has reduced its numbers to such a great
extent. Prance, which is considered an example of a
declining population, increased her numbers over the same
period from 35 million to more than 40 million.
It is Interesting to note that if the Irish had
I
J increased their population at the same rate as most other
European nations, her population today would be about 18
million instead of less than three million. |
I
It is true that the safety valve of emigration aided J
the Irish in this transformation, but the real credit must |
i
go to the reduction in birth rates. It must be remembered j
3 Colin Clark, Conditions of Economic Progress
(London: The MacMillan Company, 19*f0), pp. 2-3.
^ Ibid.. P. 170.
^ Population Bulletin, Population Reference Bureau,
i Washington, D.C.: November, 1946._______ j
87
that other European nations were sending people to the New
World in equal quantities during this period, without the
same reduction in total population. With the Irish it was
a combination of emigration and low birth rate that
decreased population.
The reduced birth rate among the inhabitants of Eire
has come about through operation of the preventive checks
as outlined by Maithus. It has been shown that in the
Irish Free State the percentages of unmarried persons among
the males of each age group are usually double those of
other nations. For instance, in the peak reproductive age
group, 25 to 29 years, 80 per cent of the Irish men are
unmarried, compared with 39 per* cent in the United States.
A somewhat similar pattern is followed by Irish women; 62
per cent in Eire, 26 per cent in this country.
Late marriages plus a relatively small percentage of
the population married, plus mass emigration, have been
effective in establishing a favorable relationship between
the number of people and natural resources in Eire. And
this favorable relationship, of course, has resulted in a
higher standard of living for the people of that nation.
6
C. A. Arensberg and S. 0. Kimball, The Family and
Community in Ireland (Cambridge; Harvard University Press.
1940), pp. 104 ffl
III. CROWDING IN BRITAIN
88
It is generally agreed among population experts that
Great Britain, with more than two and one-half times as
many people per square mile as Europe and more than 11 times
7
as many as the United States, is overcrowded. That is,
she has too many people for her natural resources, chiefly
i
I land.
With the exception of Japan, no other nation in the
world is as crowded as the United Kingdom. Italy, Germany,
and India, for example, have less than half as many people
8
per square mile of arable land.
On the strength of her world-wide supremacy in
industrialization, trade, naval force, and foreign assets,
i
Britain managed to increase her population from 20 million j
to 49 million over the past hundred years. But today that j
j nation is no longer supreme in any of these categories, and J
the trends in her vital coal production, exports, and
Q
foreign assets have been on the decrease since 1 9 1 3*
This inevitable turn of events coupled with two
7
Royal Commission on Population. Report (London:
His Majesty’s Stationery Office, June, 1949;, P* 128.
Q
Warren S. Thompson, Population Problems (New York:
McGraw-Hill Book Coppany, Inc., 1942),p. 2b5.
9
Labor and Industry in Britain, British Information
.Service.,_Mar.ch,_194r.7_,_p.. _71-._________________-________________ _I
89
crippling world wars has left Britain with a population too
large for her area and resources.
As early as 1939 Warren S. Thompson emphasized that
Britain was over-populated. If her population had remained
stationary at about the 1910 level, he said, British eco
nomic conditions would be much better and the future would
offer more hopeful prospects. But with more than 44
million people (in 1939), Thompson felt that Britain was
over-populated, and economic hardship was inevitable for i
T A
millions of her subjects.
Emigration a Solution
There could be some hope for an increase in Britain's
living standards if a large number of her people were to
emigrate to other lands. Since that nation.is not now
increasing her numbers, the effect of emigration would be
the same as in the example set by the Irish. The more
favorable man-land ratio would result in a higher standard
of life.
It is true, of course, that the migration of some 15
million people, more or less, would not be an easy task.
But it would be less difficult than the task of moving some
1400 pounds of food every year, plus other raw materials, to
Warren S. Thompson, Danger Spots in World Popula
tion (New York: A. A. Knopf, 1939),~P» 2 8 2. __________________
90
V
support each person who would otherwise remain in Britain.
A decrease, via emigration, of 30 per cent of Britain's
population should produce a similar effect as occurred in
Eire over recent generations.
The probable benefits from mass emigration have been
acknowledged in Britain. A conclusion of the Royal Com
mission on Population was that the long-run interests of
Great Britain and the Commonwealth would be served if the
flow of emigrants from Great Britain to other parts of the
Commonwealth would be maintained at as high a level as
12
possible. It is interesting to note that Britain is 60
times as densely populated as Canada and 120 times as
crowded as Australia, even when allowance is made for unin-
l
(habitable land in those Commonwealth nations.
I
i
!Military Needs Considered
i
1 Major J. F. C. Fuller, a British authority on mili
tary problems, said recently that his country might soon be
faced with a coolie level of living unless about one-third
of the British people emigrate to other lands. And he
emphasized that bulk manpower reduced to the coolie level
F. A. Pearson and F. A. Harper, The World1s
Hunger (Ithica: Cornell University Press, 1945), P» 70.
12
Royal Commission on Population, oj>. cit.. p. 126.
91
cannot serve as the basis for strong military power.^
IV. IMPROVEMENT FOR ITALY
Italy, with its 47 million people, has long been
regarded as a good example of a crowded nation. But this
view is no longer fully Justified. The birth rate in Italy
has been dropping continuously over the past generation; in
1952, the birth rate was 1 7.6, seven points below that of
the United States. Furthermore, the birth rate in Italy
has been declining much faster than that of our own coun-
1 4
try. Large areas of northern Italy have lower birth
rates than any other part of the world, and are saved from
depopulation only by the migration of inhabitants from the
southern part of the country.
Italy's annual rate of increase is currently eight-
tenths of one per cent, or 400,000 persons a year. At
present there are 412 people to the square mile.
It is interesting to note that this trend toward
reduced birth rates and a lower rate of increase occurred
despite the efforts of Mussolini to increase numbers in
Italy.
- * ■ 3 j. p. c. Fuller, "Can We House and Feed Our
People?" London Cavalcade, November 15, 1947*
14
___________Population Bulletin, op. cit.. September, 1953.
92
There is still population pressure in the country,
however, as a result of violent expansion of population
over preceding generations. Italy increased her numbers at
a high rate even during the period of greatest emigration,
from 1880 to 1910. This continued increase offered strong
proof of Benjamin Franklin and Francis A. Walker's theory
that emigration does not diminish a nation’s rate of
increase, and does not increase the receiving country’s
rate of increase.
V. POPULATION IN PUERTO RICO
One of the most crowded areas in the world is the
island of Puerto Rico, lying practically on the doorstep of
the United States, and, in fact, United States territory.
The population dilemma on this island is of especial sig- |
nificance for various reasons. For one, the problem is j
basically the same as that of three-fourths of the world’s
inhabitants. If the wealthy United States cannot find a
solution to the problem, It is a likely conclusion that
other, less fortunate, areas on the globe must continue to
suffer from the same trouble. But if a solution can be
found, It will serve as a valuable population laboratory.
In addition, the trend of events in Puerto Rico has
shown that industrialization, technology, foreign trade,
93
and sanitation, which have been advocated as solutions for
the population problem in backward nations, have not only
failed to remedy the trouble, but actually have aggravated
It. This was made clear in a recent report by the United
States Tariff Commission, which stated that the birth rate
has changed little since the Island came under the American
flag, although the death rate has been cut In half. Cur
rent tendencies, this report said, are a fairly stationary
high birth rate, a declining death rate, and a steadily
rising population growth.^
American know-how has lowered the recorded death
rate in Puerto Rico from 31-0 to 10.9 between 1899 and
1949, but the recorded birth rate increased from 26.4 to
39.1 between these years. As a result, Puerto Rico's popu
lation has more than doubled, from one to two million, and
recently has been increasing at a rate which would double
"j
the number of inhabitants in only 25 years.
In 1900, the population per square mile in Puerto
Rico was 280 compared with 26 in the United States; and by
1946 these figures increased to 618 and 47, respectively.
During this period the population of the United States
^ The Economy of Puerto Rico. The United States
Tariff Commission, Washington, D.C.: March, 1946.
Population Bulletin, op. clt., November, 1950.
94
increased 84 per cent compared with 120 per cent for Puerto
Rico. And the rate of increase for the crowded island has
accelerated over recent years; since 1940, for example, the
island's population increased 12-1/2 per cent compared
with a six per cent increase for the United States.1^
The United States Tariff Commission's study of Puerto
Rico concluded that the island cannot healthfully support
more than half as many people as it now contains, not to
mention any further increase. It emphasized that a sharp
decline in the island’s hirth rate must he forthcoming, and
n O
acknowledged that emigration might be of some help.
VI. POPULATION TROUBLE IN JAPAN
Japan, with an area about equal in size to Califor- j
nia, has a population of more than 83 million people, or as
many as Great Britain and France combined. The density of |
I
this population is 3640 persons per square mile of arable J
land, more than in Germany, Italy, or India,
i The population of Japan is not only large and
crowded, but it also is continuing to increase at a very
rapid rate. Japan's pre-war natural increase, births over
Population Bulletin, op. cit.. May, 1946.
■j Q
The Economy of Puerto Rico, op. cit.
95
deaths, was some one million a year, while during the post
war period, 1947 to 1949, her natural increase averaged
1,661,000 a year.1^ If this rate should continue, it would
mean a doubling of Japan's 83 million inhabitants in 33
years. This rate of increase is more than twice as fast as
that for the world as a whole.
The post-war Jump in Japan's rate of population
increase is the result of a lowering of the death rate with
out an accompanying decrease in the birth rate. In the few
years the United States occupied Japan, the pre-war death
20
rate of 17.2 was lowered to 11.4 (in 1949). The 1949
rate is by far the lowest in Japanese history.
The birth rate in Japan, meanwhile, was on the
increase. During the pre-war period, 1936 to 1940, the
1
average birth rate was 2 8 .6 per thousand population per
year. But during the American occupation, 1946 to 1949,
the birth rate averaged 3 3.5.^
This made for a rate of increase 43 per cent higher
than that which accompanied the record post-war baby crop
in the United States. And the contrast is the more
19
The Population Problem Research Council, The
Population of Japan (Tokyo: The Mainichi Shimbun, 1950),
P. 5-
20
Population Bulletin, op. cit., November, 1950.
| ________21 Ibid., December, _1950•_____________________________ I
96
startling when it is realized that Japan is 12 times as
densely inhabited as the United States per square mile of
22
arable acre. .
It is clear that emigration offers no possible solu
tion for the crowding in Japan. There are no places where
it is feasible for the Japanese people to emigrate, and it
has been amply demonstrated that emigration is never a
solution to an undue increase in population unless (as was
the case with the Irish) it is accompanied by a decrease in
the rate of reproduction.
Professor Warren S. Thompson feels that a real
catastrophe involving millions of persons might be in the
making in Japan. And the catastrophe might be soon pre
cipitated, he wrote, by the sudden withdrawal of American
support from the Japanese economy before that nation can
make a workable adjustment of population to r e s o u r c e s .
This fear for Japan's future was also voiced by
i
General MacArthur, shortly before he left that country. He j
stated that population pressure is so acute that 30 million {
Japanese might starve to death if food and other goods no j
i
____________________ I
29
Population Bulletin, loc. cit.
23
Warren S. Thompson, Modernization Programs in
Relation to Human Resources and Population Problems (New
York: Milbank Memorial Fund, 1950), p. 153.
97
24
longer were supplied by the United States.
Historical Development
The population of Japan had remained almost sta
tionary at about 27 million during the 300 years before
Commodore Perry forcefully opened that nation to western
civilization in 1 8 5 3. But by using techniques of the wes
tern world, Japan was able to support a tripling of her
population in about 100 years. By 1890 her population had
reached the total of 40 million.^
The American occupation of Japan following the last
war had an effect on Japan's population equally as powerful
as the events of 1853; while Japan's population doubled
between 1890 and 1945, the recent American influence has
*
I given it a momentum which, as we have seen, would double
j its numbers in only 33 years.
|
j Remedial Action
The Japanese people themselves have come to realize
that population limitation is a necessary element for their
future survival. In April of 1949 the Japanese government
created a Population Problem Council within the cabinet
Robert Gesell, "Some Biological Aspects of
Medicine,” The Diplomate. Ann Arbor, Michigan, April, 1951*
2*5
Population Bulletin, op. cit.. December, 1950*
98
which made recommendations resulting in the Eugenic Protec
tion Law, passed the following June. This law called for
I
the establishment of birth control clinics throughout
Japan, legalized sterilization for hereditary purposes, and
! made abortion legal for various reasons including economic
necessity.2* *
VII. THE EXAMPLE OP INDIA
A study of world population conditions would not be
complete without discussion of India and her teeming mil
lions, and a review of the results of over-crowding in that
nation. With some 403 million people at present, India
(including newly-created Pakistan) contains about one-fifth
of the world’s population, almost as many people as inhabit
j Europe, exclusive of Russia. She suffers, on a massive
1 scale, from the same problems facing all the other heavily-
populated countries of the Orient.
Despite recurring disasters, such as the famine of
I
1943 which killed three million persons, the population of
India increased by 82 million from 1920 to 1940.2^ And the
1951 census revealed a jump of 42 million persons over the
___
Population Bulletin, loc. cit.
27
Demographic studies of Selected Areas of Rapid
Growth (New York: Milbank Memorial Fund, 1944), p. 39«______
99
28
past decade. The population of India currently increases
about five million a year, and the nation is already ser
iously over-populated. Only a tragically high death rate
prevents the fecundity of the nation from doubling the
population every generation.
In 19^8* infant mortality was 132 per thousand
births; this was a decline from an average 172 per thousand
20
between the years 1931 to 1933* Concerning the effect of
this decline, the Indian Census noted that, if this trend
continued, the increase in population on this account alone
would by 1961 be 13*3 million, almost as many people as the
30
current total population of Argentina.
At the present time, however, one-fourth of the
people born in India are dead before they reach their
second birthday. The death rate is slightly more than three
31
times as high as that of the United States.
28
Registrar-General and Commissioner of Census,
Census of India, 1951. Provisional Totals. New Delhi,
India, 7[pril T4', 195I. I
I
OQ 1
Office of Population Research, Population Index, j
Princeton, July, 1950, p. 266. !
Census of India, Probable Effect on Decrease in j
Infantile Mortality on Future Population, New Delhi, Paper
No. 3, 19^9.
^ Population Bulletin, op. cit., October, 19^5*
100
Efforts at Solution
Special emphasis was placed on family planning at
the annual meeting of the All India Women’s Conference in
January, 1951* This group instructed over 300 local units
throughout India to explore the possibilities of maintain
ing birth control c l i n i c s . Three months later, Prime
Minister Nehru emphasized, in a public address, that birth
33
control is essential to the welfare of India.
In an effort to encourage a change in traditional
attitudes, the Indian Information Service has produced and
released a film urging the people of India to adopt birth
34
control.
VIII. POPULATION IN THE UNITED STATES
For the first times in its history, the United
States has awakened to the possibility of an over-popula-
tion problem. It has been asserted that iagricultural land
In this country can no longer be increased at a rate pro
portionate to the growth of population. The latter has
been estimated by the Census Bureau to increase to 190
32
Population Bulletin, op. cit., June, 1951*
^ New York Times. April 20, 1951*
^ San Francisco Chronicle. August 4, 1946.
101
million by 1975* under moderately favorable conditions.^5
B. T. Shaw, chief of the Agricultural Research
Administration, stated in support of the budget for agri
cultural research at a House of Representatives hearing
that it will require 530 million acres of crop land to pro
vide for the population of 1975 at the 1935 to 1939 diet
levels. That, Shaw said, is 68 million more acres than are
now available, and 27 million more than are expected by
1975* thus making clear the need for additional research
funds.^
IX. POPULATION INCREASE IN LATIN AMERICA
Latin America has been aptly termed an area of popu
lation explosion. Decreases in death rates in Latin
American nations resulting from the diffusion of medical
knowledge and sanitation, coupled with high birth rates,
j have given that region a current rate of growth of two per
cent annually, compared with one per cent for the world as
a whole.3 7
Including the West Indies, Latin America has 173
3 5 New York Times, March 16, 1952.
^ Loc» cit.
3 7 Population Bulletin, op. cit., October, 1953*
University ot 5outbm
102
million people. Its current record rate of growth would
triple that number in 47 years, by the year 2 0 0 0.
If death rates were further reduced to the level of
| the United States and birth rates were td remain the same,
i .
the rate of increase would be 3 .3 per cent. Some slight
decrease in birth rates is seen, however, as the result of
the gradual urbanization of many Latin American nations.
Table VII shows the average birth and death rates
for many of these nations for the years 1947 to 1951, as
well as the annual rate of increase over this period. It
can be seen that Costa Rica has the highest rate of
increase, 3*2 per cent a year, while Argentina, with 1.6
per cent, has the lowest. Figures for Canada and the Unitec.
States are presented for comparison.
1
I
X. OTHER POPULATION DANGER SPOTS j
I ;
i '
j It would not be feasible here to discuss every
1 nation or area of the globe that suffers from a population
problem or otherwise has a recent population history of
significance. Several other areas, however, will be men
tioned briefly in closing.
Turkey and the Near East
The Near East belongs to those areas of the world in
103
TABLE ¥11
AVERAGE BIRTH AND DEATH RATES BY NATION*
Nation
1 9 4 7 -5 1
Birth rate
1947-51
Death rate
Rate of
Increase
Argentina
25.1
9.2
1.59
British Guiana
41.5 14.3
2 .7 2
Chile
33.1 16.7
1.64
Costa Rica 45.1 12.9
3 .2 2
Dominican Republic
38.7 10.5
2 .8 2
Guatemala
51.3
2 2 .2
2.91
Mexico 45.2
16.9 2 .8 3
Puerto Rico
3 9 .6
10.9 2 .8 7
Venezuela 41.4 1 2 .1
2.93
Canada 24.4 9.2 1.8l
United States 27.3
9.8 1.46
* Source: Population Bulletin, Population Reference
Bureau, Washington, D. C.: October, 1953*
i
which population growth can he expected to he very high.
According to the Milhank Memorial Fund, birth rates under
oft
50 in this area are considered low.J The birth rate of
the United States is less than half this high.
Turkey, which has one of the lowest birth rates in
the Near East, is expected to increase from 17 million to
29 million people between 1935 and 1970. This is an
increase of 70 per cent in 35 years.
Ceylon
In just two years, from 1946 to 1948, the death rate
of British Ceylon was reduced from 20.3 to 13.2 per thou
sand population, while the birth rate remained high, being
j40.2 per thousand in 1 9 4 8 .3 9 This created a rate of popu-
1
I
;lation increase which will double Ceylon's numbers in only
26 years.
The Philippine Islands
i
J The population of the Philippines increased rapidly
throughout the American occupation, from 7 . 6 million to
19*9 million between 1903 and 1948, and is still on the
rise. Indications are that population increased at a rate
!
I 38 Demographic Studies of Selected Areas of Rapid
Growth, op. cit., pp. 79-94.
39 Population Bulletin, op. cit., November, 1950.
105
that doubles the number of inhabitants in only 35 years.
Egypt
Although Egypt has a very high death rate, her much
higher birth rates indicate a doubling of population in 40
years. If this nation's death rate were lowered to the
level of that in Ceylon or Puerto Rico without a propor
tionate lowering of the birth rate, the population would
double in 20 to 21 years. Yet Egypt today is one of the
world's most over-populated and poverty-stricken nations.
XI. ASIA1S CONTRIBUTION
The U. S. Department of State reported recently that
one-half of the world's population increase from 1900 to
1949 has been contributed by Asian countries alone.^
1
These years saw the population of the world grow from
j1,5 52,0 0 0 ,0 0 0 to 2,3 7 8,0 0 0 ,0 0 0 people.
It was pointed out that some of the smaller Asiatic
nations, such as Indonesia, the Philippines, and Thailand,
had population Increases of well over 100 per cent. The
two largest countries in Asia, China and pre-partition
India, Increased approximately 30 per cent and 49 per cent,
40
Bulletin. United States Department of State,
Washington, D.C.: August 20, 1951*
106
respectively, yet their contribution to the world increase
since 1900 was almost one third of the total.
XII. CONCLUSION
Study of the population problems of various coun
tries, in this chapter, has indicated that the cause of
1
rapid increase in population is generally a decrease in the
death rate brought about through advances in medical know
ledge and application. It is true, however, that advancing
|civilization has also caused a decrease in the birth rate;
j effects of this decrease have been felt already in Europe
and North. America, and there are indications that it will
be increasingly more effective in other parts of the world.
To the present time, however, decreasing death rates
have far exceeded decreasing birth rates in most parts of '
the world. The conclusion, therefore, is that a further j
decrease in birth rates in almost all nations is desirable
if each nation and the world as a whole is to achieve a
more nearly optimum population.
CHAPTER VII
WORLD FOOD PRODUCTION AND NEEDS
This chapter will summarize and digest the best
estimates of world food production and the needs of the
world's population for food.
Food production will be discussed largely in terms
of acreage which is or which can be devoted to agricultural
crops; the possibility of increasing yield per acre, or of
developing substitute foods, will be the topic of the fol
lowing chapter.
Agricultural acreage and food production is, of
course, of prime importance in a study of population prob
lems. It Is from the soil that practically all of our food
and clothing, and much of our shelter, is obtained. Min
erals and other raw materials might also be considered a
limiting factor in population, but here the pressure is
more remote, less acute, and probably more amenable to solu
tion by scientific device.
Non-food products of the soil will be implicitly
considered in acreage figures presented in this chapter,
unless it is specifically stated otherwise. Joseph J.
Spengler has estimated that ten per cent of the aggregate
108
acreage reported for specific crops in 1938 was devoted to
non-food production. 1 And Pearson and Harper believe that
ten to twenty per cent of the land suitable for crops is
required to produce wood fibres and other non-food commo
dities. 2
In addition, it must be noted that a certain amount
of inaccuracy exists in acreage-food data because of the
large quantity of sea food consumed by the world's people;
because of wastage and spoilage of food, mostly in the
wealthier nations; and because of unreported home-grown
foods, especially in the “have-not" nations.
For proper analysis of material presented in this
chapter, it must be kept in mind that only a small part of
world food production, about 67 billion pounds or six per
t
cent, enters into intercontinental trade.-' Only the nations
of Europe enjoy a fair proportion of international trade in
food, and in Asia food is seldom moved long distances even
within nations.
1 Proceedings of the Academy of Political Science,
January, 1949•
2
Frank A. Pearson and Floyd A. Harper, The World's
Hunger (ithica: Cornell University Press, 194-5), pp. 20-50.
^ Ibid.. p. 9.
I. TOTAL AGRICULTURAL ACREAGE
109
A comprehensive study of the proportion of the
earth's surface which can be used to grow agricultural
crops was made by Pearson and Harper, and is presented in
their recent book, The World1s Hunger. They explain that
at present less than five per cent of the land surface of
the world is used for food crops. The proportion, they
show, varies from about one per cent in Oceania to twenty
per cent in Europe. In North America, six per cent of the
land is used for food production, or 1.72 acres per capita.
A summary of their findings is shown in Table VIII.
Pearson and Harper concluded from their study that
seven per cent of the world's land surface, or 2,580,000,00C
acres, is adapted to agricultural production. In all there
are 35,700,000,000 acres of land area in the world. But
i
only seven per cent, these students found, have the proper j
combination of sunlight, rainfall, temperature, topography,
and soil. Their findings, per continent, are shown in
Table IX.
In 1937, the United States Department of State esti
mated the area of cultivated land in the world at 2,407,-
2 l
604,000 acres, or an average of 1.1 acres per person. It
^ Cultivated Lands of the World in 1937* United
.S.tates _Department_of_State,„Washington, _D. C._: _1937_«_________
110
TABLE VIII
APPROXIMATE ACREAGE OF FOOD CROPS BY CONTINENT*
Continent
Food Crops
(acres) Per cent
Asia 476,000,000 4.6
Europe 477,000,000
19.9
North America 317,000,000 5.8
Africa 152,000,000 2.1
South America 83,000, 000 1.8
Oceania 24,000, 000 1.1
WORLD 1,529,000,000
4.3
I *Source: Frank A. Pearson and Floyd A. Harper, The
[World’s Hunger. Ithica: Cornell University Press, 19^5• I
P. 20. !
TABLE IX
PROPORTION OP CONTINENTS ADAPTED TO
AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION
Area Adapted to
Agricultural Production
Continent (acres) (per cent)
Asia 6 0 0,0 0 0 ,0 0 0 6
Europe 8 9 0,0 0 0 ,0 0 0
37
North America 5 7 0,0 0 0 ,0 0 0 10
Africa 240,000,000
3
South America 220,000,000
5
Oceania 60,000,000
3
WORLD 2,580,000,000
7
♦Source; Prank A. Pearson and Ployd A.
Harper, The World* s Hunger. Ithica: Cornell
University Press, 19^5• 50*
112
can be seen that this figure agrees In general with the
findings of Pearson and Harper.
According to Dr. Hugh H. Bennett, former chief of
the United States Soil Conservation Service, there are
potentially only about four billion acres of more or less
c ;
arable land in the world. This is less than 12 per cent
of the land surface of the earth. Dr. Bennett pointed out
that much of this land is not ready for immediate cultiva
tion, and much of it would not be considered arable by
American farmers.
Another population authority, Robert Brittain, has
j estimated that, at best, less than ten per cent of the
i g
jworld's land can be used for agricultural production.
| This, he notes, comes to about one and one-half acres per !
i
person, and he predicts that population growth will lessen J
I
this to one acre per person in 50 years. He sees little i
chance for an increase in the total amount of land that I
I
can be made productive.
Acres needed per Person
There can be no precise estimate made of the number
5
Population Bulletin, Population Reference Bureau,
Washington, D. C.: January, 19^9*
6
Robert Brittain. Let There be Bread (New York: i
iSimon and Schuster, 1952), pp. 15-16. j
113
of acres needed to sustain a human being at a given standard
of living because the yield per acre varies considerably
from area to area and is increasing in many parts of the
world, because much food is obtained from the sea, because
of inexactness in non-food agricultural needs, and because
agreement can't be reached on Just what constitutes an
ideal standard of living. The consensus among students of
the subject, however, is that 2.5 acres are required to
provide an adequate standard of living for an individual.
Prominent population experts who have agreed to this figure
include William Vogt,^ Warren S. Thompson,® and Dr. Hugh H.
Bennett.9
A British study group pointed out in 1932 that three
acres of cultivated land were required in the period 1909
to 1913 bo provide an inhabitant of the United Kingdom with j
his normal diet. It was noted that in the decade 1831 to j
I
1840 the average was 2.2 acres, but a lower standard of
living resulted.10
7 William Vogt, The Road to Survival (New York:
William Sloane Associates, Inc., 1948), pp. 193-94.
8
Warren S. Thompson, Population Problems (New York:
McGraw-Hill Book Company, Inc., 1942), p7' 68".
9 C. Lester Walker, Man and Food, The Lost Equation?
(New York: Foreign Policy Associates, 1949), p. 17*
i 10 World Agriculture, An International Survey, A
Report by a Study Group of Members of the Royal Yristitute of
International Affairs (London: Humphrey Milford, 1932),p.28.
114
If the 2.5 acre per person figure is accepted as the
ideal, or an approximation thereto, it will he seen that
world population is now far too great, and the world’s
arable acreage far too limited, to provide all people with
the produce for an adequate standard of living.
And the 2.5 figure can be used to gauge the popula
tion dilemma of various ' ’have-not1 1 countries of the world.
India and Pakistan, for example, have a population in
excess of 400,000,000, and cultivate only 2 0 0,0 0 0 ,0 0 0
acres; this means that only one-half an acre is available,
on the average, to sustain the individual citizen.1' 1 ’
II. TREND OF FOOD PRODUCTION
I Dennis A. Fitzgerald, of the Economic Co-operation
i
Administration, writing in World Population and Future
: Resources, noted that in 1946 the Food and Agricultural
i
| Organization of the United Nations calculated that, in
f
i order to provide a minimum reasonably-balanced daily
|caloric intake of 2 ,6 0 0 calories for the prospective world
i
population in i9 6 0, the following percentage increases in
food production would be necessary: sugar, 12 per cent;
! 11
I Mordecai Ezekial and Associates, Towards World
I Prosperity (New York: Harper and Brothers Publishers,
1947)1 P- 273.
115
cereals, 21 per cent; potatoes, 27 p e r cent; fats, 34 per
cent; meat, 46 per cent; pulses, 80 per cent; milk, 100 per
12
cent; and fruits and vegetables, 163 per cent. The 2,600
calories that would thus be provided can be compared with
the current United States average of about 3,300.
Fitzgerald feels, however, that the achievement of
any such increases, which average nearly 50 per cent, is
clearly a physical and economic impossibility by i9 6 0.
Recent Food Trend 1
..... — — ------ i
•In 1952, Norris E. Dodd, head of the United Nations
Food and Agricultural Organization, concluded that the
world food situation was getting worse. He arrived at this
opinion after a four-month tour of the world. Dodd stated
that food production had increased nine per cent since 1936,
but that world population had increased 14 per cent over
the same p e r i o d .^ jt is clear from these figures that j
world food supply was not keeping pace with the increase in
population.
A similar conclusion was reached by the United States
Department of Agriculture in 1946. In this case a review
19
Paul K. Hatt, and others, World Population and
Future Resources (New York: American Book Company. 1952),
p. 127.
New York Times. May 21, 1952.
116
of the caloric value of food products produced for food in
the nations of the world indicated that world food produc
tion in 1945 to 1946 was about five per cent less than in
the immediate pre-war period. And if allowance was made
for the increase in population over these years, the food
production on a per capita basis was about 12 per cent
lower. That is, lower food stocks accounted for five per
cent of the food problem, and increase in population
accounted for seven per cent.
World food production increased four per cent from
1946 to 1950, however, and two per cent of this increase
occurred in the single year 1949 to 1 9 5 0.^^
Food Predictions
A number of authorities have made optimistic predic
tions concerning the possibility of increasing food produc
tion in the near future. Most of this material will be
reviewed in the next chapter, but for the present it is
interesting to note several examples of food production
I increase predictions.
j 0. E. Baker, for example, believes that a 75 per |
icent increase can be attained through a combination of a 50 I
1
World Food Situation 1946. U. S. Department of
Agriculture, Government Printing Office, Washington,D.G.,
11946.
I _______^ New York Times. February 12. 1951.__________________
117
per cent increase in acreage and a 50 per cent increase in
average yield per acre.*^
This optimism is shared toy Harold G. Moulton who is
of the opinion that if scientific knowledge now available
were universally applied, present yields in the United
17
States could be increased 50 P©** cent. Moulton feels, in
fact, that food production in this nation might well be
tripled during the next century through increasing food-
producing acreage, expanding per acre yield, eliminating
nO
waste, and developing soilless food production.
An equally optimistic forecast was made by 535
scientists from 49 nations at the United Nations Scientific
Conference on the Conservation and Utilization of Resources,
This body concluded that a 50 per cent increase in food
production could be accomplished with ’ ’proper planning,"
and that food stocks could be made to accommodate possible
19
increases in world population.
j Colin Clark, an Australian conservation expert, told
I 1
I I
I mmmmmmmmrn i r - "
| ^ 0. E. Baker, The Population Prospect in Relation
I to the World1s Agricultural Resources (College Park:
; University of Maryland Press'^ 1947) , p. 4.
I 17
1 Harold G. Moulton, Controlling Factors in Economic
Development (Washington: The Brookings Institution, 1949),
p. 211.
18
Ibid., p. 215.
1 ___________New Yopk Tiroes t ^August_„27,—1949.___• _______________
118
this conference that the global food supply could keep pace
even with an anticipated growth in world population of one
20
per cent yearly.
More recently, Dr. Robert A. Salter, chief of the
United States Soil Conservation Service, said that a com
bination of the best known farm and conservation practices
P I
would increase farm production from 60 to 75 per cent.
Index Numbers of Agricultural Production
The Food and Agricultural Organization of the United
Nations recently published index numbers of agricultural
production for the past few years, using the period 193^ to
PP
1938 as a base. This material was also presented on a
per capita basis.
World production of agricultural products, according
to these data, was 17 per cent above the prewar level by
1952-1953* and 13 P®r cent above that base the previous
year.
Index numbers for the volume of agricultural produc
tion by region are shown in Table X.
20
New York Times, August 18, 19^9*
New York Times, February 16, 1952.
22 The State of Food and Agriculture 1953 (Rome,
Italy: Food and Agricultural Organization, United Nations,
J1953), PP. 15-18.
t _________ ___ _ „_____________________
119
TABLE X
INDEX NUMBERS OF VOLUME OF
AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION
(1 9 3 4 -1 9 3 8 = 1 0 0)*
Region
Total Agricultural Production
1945-1949
1950-1951
1951-1952
1952-1953
N.W. and S. Europe 104 114
113
No. America 136 136
143
Latin America 122 120 130
Oceania 112 108
119
Far East (ex. China) 98 101 102
Near East
115
125 134
Africa 124 134
137
All above regions 114 118
123
World** 109 113 117
♦Source: The State of Food and Agriculture 1953.
Rome, Italy: Food and Agricultural Organization, United
Nations, 1953. P. 15-
♦♦Including estimates for U.S.S.R., Eastern Europe,
China.
120
These figures seem to indicate very favorable trends
concerning the world's food situation. When these data are
presented on a per capita basis, however, it becomes clear
that there is much less cause for optimism. Table XI,
showing index numbers of per capita agricultural production,
reveals that in 1952 to 1953 world agricultural production
regained the prewar level per consumer for the first time
since the war. It can be seen that In many regions the per
capita production Is still much less than the prewar base.
The Food and Agricultural Organization, in presenting
the information in Table XI," emphasized that the recent
increase in world agricultural production, which on the
average has just barely been keeping pace with population
growth, cannot be looked upon as a continuous trend. Wo
assurance was given that the increase in food production !
could be maintained, or that it could keep up with popula- j
; p o j
tion increase. J
i
III. RELATIVE PRODUCTION YIELDS
It was noted above that a precise estimate of the
number of acres needed to feed and clothe a person cannot be
made because, in part, of the wide range of per-acre crop
23 Ibid.. p. 15.
121
TABLE XI
INDEX NUMBERS OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION
PER CAPITA
(1934-1938 = 100)*
Agricultural Production Per Capita
Region
1948-1949
1950-1951
1951-1952
1952-1953
N.W. and S. Europe
95 103
101
No. America 116 112 116
Latin America
93
88
93
Oceania 96
87 95
Far East (ex. China) 82
83
82
Near East
97
102 108
Africa 107 110 111
All above regions
97 98 99
World **
97
98 101
♦Source: The State of Food and Agriculture 1953.
Rome, Italy: Food and Agricultural Organization, United
Nations, 1953- P. 1 8.
♦♦Including estimates for U.S.S.R., Eastern Europe,
China.
*
122
yields throughout the world. The best data on relative
yields per acre comes from the Pood and Agricultural Organ!-'
zation of the United Nations. This information, which
shows acres cultivated per person and primary calories pro
duced per acre before the war, is tabulated in Table XII.
The relatively low per-acre yield in North America
Oil
was emphasized by Robert Brittain. He pointed out that
in Western Europe farmers harvest about three times as much
food per acre as the farmers in the United States and
Canada. Even in Eastern Asia, he noted, yields per acre are
twice those of the English-speaking nations of North
America.
Brittain also explained, however, that the per-acre
yield for India was very low, being one-half that of China,
t
I 2S
i and one-quarter that of Japan.
| It is apparent that, in general, the modern, mech-
j anized method of farming in North America does not result j
j i
j in higher yields per acre; the accomplishment under mech- j
anization, rather, is higher yields per farm worker. This |
is shown by a brief study of the data in the table.
The fact that mechanization does not increase farm
yields per acre cannot be stressed too strongly. It must
Oil
Brittain, o£. cit.. p. 199*
25 Ibid., p. 200.
123
TABLE XII
ACRES CULTIVATED PER PERSON
AND PRIMARY CALORIES PRODUCED PER ACRE
1932 * to 1936*
Region
Acres
Per Farmer
Primary Calories
Per Acre
North America 4.0 2500
South America
1.5
4700
Western Europe
.7
7500
U.S.S.R. 2.0 2300
Eastern Asia
• 5
5500
South Asia .8 3600
♦Source: World Food Survey. Food and Agri
cultural Organization, UnitedNations, Washington,
D.C., July, 1946. P. 23.
124
be kept In mind when a solution to the world food shortage
is sought. Non-mechanization, rather, and a high concen
tration of labor is the solution to higher yields per acre
and hence more food. But here mechanization must not be
confused with scientific developments such as Improved fer
tilizers, better breeds of farm animals, and more produc
tive species of crops, or with irrigation and land reclama
tion.
While the use of farm machinery in the United States,
for example, does not result in vast yields per acre, it
does permit the economy to maintain a very small proportion
of workers on the farm because of high yields per agricul
tural worker. This, of course, frees the bulk of the work-
i
ing force to engage in other productive activity, to pro
duce a wide variety of products and create a high standard
jof living for the people of the nation.
I
! Moulton noted that in 1940 only 18 per cent of the
jUnited States labor force was in agriculture, compared with
|TO per cent in 1 8 3 0. And he attributed this to technologl-
\
cal developments which vastly increased the production per
Ofs
farm worker. u
A near-perfect inverse correlation between living
t
standards and per cent of workers in agriculture in the
! ________Moulton, op. clt., p. 19.______________________________
125
nations of the world was recognized by Ezekiel. His data,
adapted from Louis H. Bean, Studies In Income and Wealth,
National Bureau of Economic Research, 19^6, are shown In
Table XIII.
IV. CALORIE CONSUMPTION
The simplest form In which food consumption can be
stated and comparison made is by calories of food consumed
per person per day. Using this method, John D. Black has
i
presented average calorie consumption for the various
nations of the world over the years 1935 "to 1939. His
material is compiled in Table XIV. Black cautioned against
a possible degree of error due to wastage of food in rich
nations, foraging in the poor nations, and spoilage,
especially in warm nations.
j In addition, Black noted that Denmark, Argentina,
’ New Zealand, and Eire had higher per capita calorie consump
tion than the United States; the Scandinavian countries
consumed in excess of 3000 per capita; Colombia and Korea
were at the Mexican level; and a number of nations,
including Puerto Rico, India, Java, the Philippines, Iran,
and Iraq, were only slightly above the level of Mexico.
He pointed out also that those nations with low caloric
consumption receive the greatest per cent of their calories
i 1
126
TABLE XIII
PROPORTION OF WORKERS ENGAGED IN
AGRICULTURE - 1925 TO 1934*
Nation
Per cent
in Agriculture
Income
Per Capita
United States
19 $525
Canada
35 521
United Kingdom 6 425
Netherlands 21 358
France 25 287
Germany 24 290
Hungary 5^ 165
Japan 50
159
Poland 62
165
Italy 43 154
U.S.S.R.
74
152
Bulgaria 67 119
India 62 90
China
75 49
♦Source: Mordecai Ezeklal and Associates,
Towards World Prosperity. New York: Harper and
Brothers Publishers, 1 9 4 7. P. 1 8.
127
TABLE XIV
PER CAPITA CALORIE CONSUMPTION
SELECTED NATIONS — 1935 TO 1939*
Nation Calories Nation Calories
Australia 3130 Germany 2920
Belgium 2780 Japan 2250
Canada 3110 Mexico 1900
China 2200 United Kingdom 3000
Egypt 2200 United States 3250
France 2700 U.S.S.R. 2830
♦Source: John D. Black and Maxine E. Kiefer,
Future Food and Agricultural Policy, New York: McGraw
Hill Book CompanyJ Inc., 1948TI Pp. 81-82.
128
from foods low in needed elements, such as cereals and
potatoes.
These figures are confirmed by data of the Food and
Agricultural Organization of the United Nations to the
effect that before the war slightly over one-half the
world's population averaged under 2250 calories per capita
daily, while about one-sixth averaged between 2250 and
2 7 5 0, and about one-third averaged above 2 7 5 0.
This source noted that to increase per capita
calorie consumption of the entire world population to 2600,
together with some changes in dietary composition, it would
!be necessary to produce 90 per cent more primary calories
|by i960, compared with prewar, and 110 per cent more by
!1970. An estimated 25 per cent increase in population by
i96 0, over the prewar level, accounts for 35 per cent of
ithe increase, and improvements in diet account for the
j
remaining 55 per cent.
j
1 Primary and Secondary Calories
| A primary calorie is one yielded directly by crops, I
1 j
'while a derived calorie is produced by feeding crop produce I
I i
!to an animal and then consuming the animal or its products. |
1
1
1
World Food Survey, Food and Agricultural Organi
zation, United Nations, Washington, D.C., July, 1946, pp.
7, 11-14.
129
Such foods as eggs, meat, butter, and milk, then, supply-
derived calories.
It is generally assumed that about seven primary
calories are required to produce one derived calorie. This
means that the number of primary calories needed to provide
a daily calorie intake of 3000 is actually 12,000, if 50
per cent of the 3000 calories are derived. It is known, of
course, that derived calories are necessary for a healthful
diet since they provide most of the needed food elements.
The great variation in the consumption of animal
foods is revealed in the number of primary calories repre
sented by per capita calorie consumption in various nations
i
•before the war. North America, for example, consumed
t
10,000 per capita, while South America consumed 7050,
Western Europe 5250, U.S.S.R. 4600, and Eastern and Southern
Asia 2750 to 2900. 28 !
i
!
V. CONCLUSION
The Medical Geography Department of the American
Geographical Society recently made a survey of world dietary
conditions under sponsorship of the Office of Naval Research
f
and concluded that two-thirds of the world’s people suffer
28
Proceedings of the Academy of Political Science,
loc cit. ____________________ ____ ____ ______ ______________
130
2Q
from a deficient diet. In this case, diet was measured
both in terms of calorie intake and quality; in other words,
the variety of foods and elements consumed were considered.
^ The blame for such mass dietary deficiency was
largely placed, by this group, on faulty distribution,
although other factors such as population densities, wastage
religious taboos, inefficient farming, and social and
economic patterns were also cited.
Fairfield Osborn, president of the Conservation
Foundation, believes that at least one-half of the world’s
people are suffering from malnutrition, and that tens of
■^0
millions are actually balancing on the starvation line.
He feels that the food shortage is one of the chief causes
for unrest in the world.
1 The above, coupled with information presented in
jthis chapter, should make it clear that food supply is a
!problem of vast importance to the world of today. And it
|should also be clear that there is no simple solution to
Jthe problem. The continuing pressure of population on food
resources indicates strongly that the answer is not simple
or is not close at hand. The possibilities of increasing
food supply, however, will be considered in the next chapter.
t
^ New York Times, August 24, 1953• !
O o |
New York Times, September 6, 1952. :
CHAPTER-TOET* » '
*
POSSIBILITY OF INCREASING FOOD SUPPLY '
i ”
There are two avenues of approach in seeking a solu
tion to the current world problem of starvation or near
starvation for millions upon millions of people. Either
the supply of food may be increased, or the number of people
may be decreased. This chapter will deal with the first
possibility,, and the following will consider the second.
It is obvious, of course, that the final answer, if
one is found, will combine both of the above possibilities.
And here it must be noted that a decrease in numbers refers
not only to an absolute decrease, but also to a decrease in
i
the rate of increase. j
I
Of the various methods by which the world's food
supply might be increased, the two most compatible with
present dietary habits call for increasing the total amount
j of acreage devoted to food production, and increasing
i
yields per acre cultivated. In addition, food supply might
be increased by developments in aquiculture (farming the
ocean), discovery of suitable synthetic foods, and elimina
tion of certain food and farming prejudices. These methods
will be considered in the following pages.
132
I. INCREASING TOTAL ACREAGE
| * Several expert estimates of the total amount of land
j
i in the world that can be cultivated were considered in the
j
i
j previous chapter. Although there is a wide difference of
opinion as to the amount of land that might be adapted to
agriculture in the future, it is generally agreed that some i
improvements can be made. Irrigation, for example, could
be employed to make many now-barren lands arable. Progress
here, however, is limited by the great cost and the uneco
nomic character of many such undertakings.
New and improved types of fertilizer, and increased
production of existing types, could also permit an expan-
j sion of agricultural acreage. But here again economic
I limits are generally quickly reached because of the great
I i
I cost involved. Other limits to the use of fertilizers will I
| 1
I
be discussed in the following section. j
| 1
1 Total acreage might also be increased by the culti-
i
jvation of weeds and "second-class" vegetables presently not J
considered fit for human consumption. These crops could be
I grown on marginal lands. Dr. Hazel E. Munsell, a research
jassistant at the nutritional biochemistry laboratories at
the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, has suggested,
for example, that the food shortage could be eased by the
I
I cultivation and consumption of various weeds found in
i_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ , _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _
133
Central America which are said to be rich in minerals and
vitamins.1 And a similar suggestion concerning "second-
class vegetables not now fit for human consumption" has
2
been made by Sir Robert Robinson, of Oxford University.
While the current world food situation demands an
increase in total acreage, there are many agricultural
experts who feel that, on the contrary, a decrease in
arable acreage is taking place. This decrease is generally
interpreted as the result of too-intensive use of farm
lands, in an effort to meet food needs. The views of those
who see a decrease in total farm land are best summarized
by the following words of J. Russell Whitaker, taken from
3
World Population and Future Resources;
Instead of an expansion of geographic and produc
tion limits, however, it appears that a neg contrac
tion is taking place. Over wide areas men have
overstepped the limits of stable, permanent produc
tion and In many cases have destroyed the very soil
on which they depend. Soil is a delicate resource.
It is quickly damaged by flood and fire, drifting
sands, the leaching of inorganic matter, the
destruction of humus, deterioration of soil struc
ture, accumulation of toxic products, the weakening
of micro-biological complexes, and the washing away
of the land itself.
1 New York Times, April 11, 1950.
2 New York Times, September 14, 1951.
3 Paul K. Hatt, and others, World Population and
Future Resources (New York; American Book Company, 1952),
PP. 7B-79.
II. INCREASING YIELD PER ACRE
13^
The proper use of fertilizer would make It possible
to bring additional acreage under the plow, as noted above,
and would also Increase yields on all cultivated acreage.
The Food and Agricultural Organization has estimated that
through the use of fertilizer alone, a 30 pe** cent increase
4
in food production could be effected.
The value of fertilizer in boosting yield per acre
was acknowledged by Pearson and Harper in The World1s
Hunger.-* They listed the various types of fertilizer
according to their relative value as follows: animal and
human manure, commercial fertilizer, and green manure crops
turned under. Commercial fertilizer, they pointed out,
offers the greatest future possibilities.
1
Fertilizer, however, cannot be regarded unquestion-
iably as a panacea for food shortage. Many arguments against
;the heavy use of fertilizer were set forth by de Castro in j
fl I
his recent book, The Geography of Hunger. Here it was I
noted that soil damage can result if fertilizer is used too
abundantly; a current increase in yield through the use of
^ New York Times. May 3 1, 1953.
I 5 Frank A. Pearson and Floyd A. Harper, The World1s
I Hunger (Ithica: Cornell University Press, 19^5), pp. 52-54.
j ^ Josue de Castro, The Geography of Hunger (Boston:
iLittle, Brown and Company, 1952), pp. 28B^94.
i
135
fertilizer might take its toll in decreased future yields.
De Castro also pointed out that products grown on fertilized
soil often lack the required nutritional elements, and hence
the increased yield is only illusory. He noted, however,
that natural supplies of chemical fertilizers— potash and
phosphate— are abundant and will be available for years to
come.
Many writers have made high claims for the use of
fertilizer, even going so far as to say that it can be used
to create ' ’man-made1 1 topsoil.^ But these claims were
8
largely discredited by the Population Reference Bureau.
Arguments on both sides have pointed to experiments made at
the Ohio Agricultural Experiment Station at Wooster, Ohio,
in which corn was made to grow on heavily-fertilized land
from which ten inches of topsoil had been removed. The
yield was low, however, being 86.1 bushels per acre com
pared with 125 bushels on surrounding land, and the crop
was grown only one year in four. It was the conclusion of
Dr. Edward H. Graham, chief of the Biology Division of the
U. S. Soil Conservation Service, that topsoil is an irre-
9
placeable resource that can never be re-created by man.
7 Time, November 8, 19^8.
^ Population Bulletin, Population Reference Bureau,
Washington, D.C.: January, 19^9*
_______ ?_Loc. cit.________ 1
Scientific Development
Probably the most likely way to increase per acre yields
throughout the world is through the development of improved
species of crops and better breeds of farm animals. Much
has been done along these lines in the United States, and
much can still be done. And world production can be
increased by sharing these benefits more fully with other
nations.
The elimination of waste would also mean an increase
in world food production through increased yield per acre.
Much waste is caused by plant and animal diseases and by
insect devastation. The latter has been estimated to cause
a loss of ten per cent before harvest in the United States,
and a far higher loss in less advanced areas of the world.10
It is clear that, further research here would be very bene
ficial.
Soilless Farming
Experiments in Japan have shown that it is possible
jto grow food crops without using land at all. In one
instance, 80 acres of soilless gardens were made to* produce
green vegetables for American occupation forces. Troughs
were filled with gravel to which a solution of fertilizer
1^ Robert Brittain, Let There be Bread (New York:
; Simon and Schuster, 1952), p. 185.
137
and chemicals was added every two days.11 A similar feat
was accomplished on Ascension Island during the recent war,
using two and one-half acres.
Although these experiments in soilless farming are
of interest, it must be pointed out that they hardly hold
I
the answer to the world food shortage. Their limited use
is proof enough of their uneconomic nature.
Mechanization
A frequently-mentioned solution to the world's food
problem is mechanization. It is only necessary, according
to this theory, to ship tractors and other farm machinery
to backward areas in order to bring about a huge increase
in the world's production of food. It is implied that yielc
per acre will thus be increased; but students of the subject
I
know that yield per acre generally decreases through mech- j
anization, it is yield per worker which increases. This j
j
was shown In the preceding chapter.
Mechanization, therefore, is not a solution to the
world's food shortage. It would simply make matters worse !
j
In those parts of the world most in need of additional food j
Jsupplies. At present these areas gain a maximum yield per j
jacre, in general, by applying a maximum number of workers
i
L__________________
! 11 I
i Science News Letter, June 1, 19^6. !
138
to the soil— by engaging in intensive farming. Mechaniza
tion would decrease production yields and free many workers
for nothing better than unemployment.
III. FARMING THE SEA
More and more, students of the world food problem
are looking to the sea in their quest for additional food
sources. There are two ways in which the sea might be made
to produce these food supplies. Either conventional sea
j foods might be produced in greater quantities, or methods
I
I might be devised to acquire suitable food from sea water.
i
Both these possibilities will be discussed here.
Production of Sea Food
At present, 98 per cent of the world's production of
12
fish is carried on in the Northern Hemisphere. Paul S.
Galtsoff, of the United States Fish and Wildlife Service,
attributes this to the proximity of Northern fishing grounds
to populated areas. 13 He feels, then, that the many fish
ing grounds in the Southern Hemisphere could be made to pro
duce large quantities of sea food simply through more
extensive exploitation.
12
Hatt and others, 0£. cit., p. 108.
______ 13 Ibid.. p. 109-__________ |
Dr. Michael Graham, director of the Fisheries Lab
oratory at Lowestoft, England, believes that the current
estimated world fish production of 20 million tons can be
doubled, tripled, or even quadrupled over the coming
years.^ And Dr. Gordon A. Riley, Research Associate of
the Bingham Oceanographic Laboratory at Yale University,
considers it possible to increase the yield as much as ten
fold. 15
Pearson and Harper, however, are not so optimistic.
They point out that there is no practical method for
increasing the ocean’s plant life, upon which fish feed,
and hence no method for increasing the number of fish.
They consider it reasonable to assume that fish will con
tinue to be a relatively unimportant part of man's diet.
j
The ocean, they say, is like the land, a vast area, most of
which will produce little or no food for man. j
i I
1
Food from Sea Water
It has been discovered recently that food can be
acquired from sea water by straining the water through a
1
find mesh which catches minute organic life called plankton.
1 Plankton is a general term that includes endless varieties
I
I
1
I ^ New York Times. January 1 8, 1953*
! 1 ""
! 15 Scientific American, October, 19^9*
140
of this tiny life, which contain amino acids, vitamins, and
other organic compounds.
There have been instances where shipwrecked sailors,
using the proper equipment, have kept themselves alive on a
17
plankton diet.
The aforementioned Dr. Riley, of Yale, and Dr. P.
Neville Woodward, director of the Scottish Seaweek Research
Institute, believe that plankton offers an Inexhaustible
1R
source of food for the people of the world. Dr. Riley,
i
for example, stated that Long Island Sound, if properly
dammed, would supply consumers of the world with three
million tons of plankton. And he feels this source will be
used when the economic demand for additional food is great
|enough to warrant it.
i
I
IV. SYNTHETIC POODS j
!
I
Many students of population believe that the answer j
to increasing numbers versus relatively limited agricul- j
I
tural land lies in the development and production of syn
thetic foods. Extremely high estimates have been made by
some of these students regarding the maximum number of
Hatt and others, o£. cit., pp. 112-13.
■j Q
New York Times, March 11, 1950, and August 25,
-194 9_ . _________________________________________________________________________________ ____________________________________________________. . . _ _______________________
141
people that could be fed In this world with the resources
and technical knowledge on hand.
Dr. Eugene G. Rochow, a chemist of Harvard University
has claimed, for example, that the world could feed 15
billion people through the production of synthetic foods.^
He believes that food can be made from trees, coal, and
petroleum by chemical processes more efficient than the "old-
fashioned" methods of food production. Meat and eggs, Dr.
Rochow says, would disappear, along with other familiar
foods, because they are not produced in the most economical
manner possible.
Egon Glesinger has also predicted that wood will be
a bountiful source of future food supply. The technical
knowledge is already available, he says, to make a high-
20
protein sugar from wood at economic cost. And he noted
that in Sweden during the last war "hamburgers1 1 were made
21
from wood.
Another possibility for a vastly increased world food
supply exists in a type of algae developed by Professor Otto
Warburg, biochemist and Nobel Prize winner, and a group of
•*-9 Science Digest. August, 1949*
20
Egon Glesinger. The Coming Age of Wood (New York:
Simon and Schuster, 1949)t P. 153*
21
Ibid.. pp. 135-36.
142
22
scientists after a 25 year study. The potential acreage
yield for this algae was estimated to be a hundred-fold
greater than that of agricultural crops. Its efficiency
stems from use of a photo-synthesis process by which it uti
lizes sunlight to create food out of carbon dioxide from
the air and water from the soil.
While it is undeniable that developments in synthetic
foods offer a possibility of supporting an Increased popu
lation in some degree of comfort and well-being, there are
many scholars who agree with Ross when he said that for
"mankind to multiply carelessly, counting on the early
arrival of the synthetic production of foods on a grand
23
scale, would be a pure gamble in human lives."
«
V. ELIMINATION OF FOOD PREJUDICES
Vast increases in food production would result if,
by some miracle, the many foolish beliefs, superstitions, j
t
i
and prejudices of backward peoples could be eliminated. In ;
addition, more food would be available for human consumption
if such a development were to occur.
22 New York Times, December 21, 1949*
23 Edward A. Ross, Standing Room Only? (New York:
The Century Company, 1927), P* 114.
143
The sacred cow of India is a familiar story to all—
not merely to the population theorist. There are an esti
mated 25 million such animals in India which are permitted
to feed unmolested while many humans starve, or at least
border on starvation. The people of that nation also suf
fer from their similar worship of the monkey. Like the
sacred cow, the sacred monkey feeds undisturbed, even to
the point of taking needed food from a baby without inter
ference from the mother.
Agriculture in Egypt suffers similarly from foolish
superstition. There many agricultural workers refuse to
use simple tools, such as the wheelbarrow, because they pre
fer to labor in precisely the same manner as did their
ancestors.
It can easily be seen that enlightenment in cases
such as the above would mean greater yields and more effi
cient use of foodstuffs. The chances for success in bring
ing about such enlightenment in the foreseeable future is
1
1
problematical, however. In general, it might be considered
as one segment of the simple education that is needed by so
many of the world’s people.
VI. CONCLUSION
It seems likely that technological and social
144
improvements, and the spread of knowledge throughout the
jworld, will make it possible for total food production to
i
increase year after year, practically without end. But
whether there will be a huge increase in food production in
the future, or even an increase permitting higher per capita
consumption, is another matter. The previous chapter made
lit clear that thus far no such increase has come about.)
I y
Many writers on the subject have indicated that sci
ence will provide the necessary food whenever the future
increase In population demands it. But it must be noted
that the demand is already here, and has been in existence
for many years, and still the bountiful production of food
is not forthcoming. Continued starvation and inadequate
diet In most parts of the world attest to the fact that
there is no easy solution to the food shortage.
Dr. Thomas Parran, former surgeon-general of the
United States, echoed this view when he said that the
i
’ ’greatest possible increase in food production will not for
oil
decades be enough to meet the minimum adequate diet.”
j But expressions of optimism continue. A report sub-
i
mitted to the State Department by the National Catholic
Welfare Conference categorically denied the existence of a
food shortage, or of its possibility, maintaining that the
24 i ^
_Science News Letter, March 12, 1949*_________________________ j
145
world will continue to feed its millions without resort to
* 2*5
jpopulation limitation. ^ And Dr. Elvin C. Stakman, presi-
I
dent of the American Association for the Advancement of
Science, claimed that the world is in the midst of an
agricultural revolution which will provide generous quan
tities of food for all mankind. He decried the “gloomy
Malthusian prophets of doom1 1 who fail to reckon with the
26
miracles of modern science.
New York Times, November 10, 1950*
^ New York Times, December 28, 1949*
CHAPTER IX
POSSIBILITY OF POPULATION DECREASE
The possibility of limiting world population, as a
means of alleviating the chronic conditions of hunger in so
many parts of the globe, will now be discussed. The first
section of this chapter will seek to analyze the factors
which have already limited population increase in many
regions; and the second section will consider steps which
might be taken to promote this trend throughout the world.
It must be pointed out that population limitation
means more than merely population decrease. It refers as
well to a decrease in the rate of increase. This latter is
of great importance, and probably of more practical concern
in the current world situation. j
i
! i
I. OPERATIVE LIMITING INFLUENCES |
It has already been shown that the rate of population
Increase in most of North America, in Australia and New
I
(Zealand, and in various European nations is much lower than
in other areas of the world. It appears obvious, there
fore, that certain inhibiting factors must be present In I
147
the former areas which do not operate in the latter.
In Ireland an absolute decrease in population has
been brought about largely because of fewer marriages and
later marrying ages. But in other nations population has
been controlled without resort to these steps. In the
United States, for example, the rate of increase has been
curtailed despite the fact that women are marrying younger
than in earlier generations, and a higher percentage of
women are married. 1
This population limitation in the United States, and
in most other Western nations, has come about through the
joint operation of two factors— dissemination of birth con
trol information, coupled with decreasing desire for chil
dren. These influences have been increasingly more effec
tive in the United States over the past one hundred years,
and have resulted in a decrease of children born per woman
i p '
ifrom about eight to only three. j
i
There are various reasons why families of the
;Western nations, in general, desire to limit the number of
i
1 their children. One of the chief causes is the trend towarc
i
urbanization. Unlike the farmer, especially the
1 Warren S. Thompson, Population Problems (New York:
McGraw-Hill Book Company, Inc., 1942),p. 195.
O
Population Bulletin, Population Reference Bureau,
Washington, D.C.: February, 1953.
unmechanized farmer, the city dweller does not find his
children an asset in the quest for a livelihood. This fac
tor is made even more effective through the operation of
child labor laws in modern, industrialized nations.
In addition, the desire for mobility on the part of
many families has caused them to limit their size. It is
apparent that six or eight offspring would make it extremels
difficult for the modern family to migrate to search for
greater economic opportunity.
I
Finally, the desire for ease and luxury tends to
decrease family size. The pleasure to be gained from a
third or fourth child is weighed against the cost of a
sought-after standard of living— and generally the extra
i
children are sacrificed for luxury goods. The increasing
i
need and cost of education similarly results in a decrease
i
jin family size.
I
Diet a Possibility
Several students of population believe that limita
tion of numbers in Western nations is partly the result of
diet. They believe that a rich diet causes a decrease in
fertility, while a poor diet has the opposite effect. It
must be noted that this is no new theory, however, and was
! 3
I expounded in considerable detail by Adam Smith. Those who
t
i
\______ _3_See_Chap.ter_II._______________________________________
149
hold to the theory find proof in the contrast between birth
rates in well-fed nations, on one hand, and poorly-fed
nations, such as India and China, on the other.
Scientific proof of this theory was attempted
recently at the University of Chicago. In this case three
types of diets, rich, bulky, and poor, were fed to six dif
ferent groups of rats, and it was found that, after three
generations, the rats on the rich diet did not maintain
their numbers, while the rats on the poor diet had the
4
largest litters. Just how much bearing this experiment
has on human procreation is, of course, a matter of conjec
ture.
Migration Considered
Time and time again migration is advocated as a
solution to regional over-population. Many well-meaning
1 writers suggest, for example, that the population problems
iof India or Japan could be solved if only large numbers
from these nations could be transplanted to less-heavily
i
populated areas. But it has been amply proved that this is
5
not a solution. Benjamin Franklin and Francis A. Walker,
as noted earlier, were the first to see that migration
i i
New York Times, April 21, 1950.
^ Robert C. Cook, Human Fertility: The Modern Dilemma
(New York: William Sloane Associates, 1951T.'1 pp. 8 5. " 90-91. I
150
simply increases the birth rate in the emigrating nation
and decreases the birth rate in the nation receiving the
transplanted peoples.
In like manner, the movement of food supplies from
surplus nations to over-populated areas does not.solve the
problem. On the contrary, it aggravates it by enabling the
latter areas to reproduce at an even higher rate, and thus
generate a greater population problem for future years.
II. WHAT CAN BE DONE
There are a number of steps that can be taken throu#i-
out the world in an effort to limit population. Probably
the most suitable is the dissemination of birth control
information. It was noted above that this factor, coupled
with decreasing desire for children, has lowered the birth
Irate in many advanced nations. j
Unfortunately, however, there are many political and
(religious laws against such action, even in areas where it
i
I has been effective. In the United States there is a federal'
I 1
law and many state laws aimed against birth control, but j
i
I
only Connecticut and Massachusetts attempt to enforce a ban |
I
against birth control clinics or the transmission of birth |
control information. It has been noted, however, that the
birth rate in these two states corresponds to the birth
151
£
rates of surrounding states.
Religion is a more powerful force than temporal law
i
in the effort to suppress birth control techniques, although
actually the two cannot be separated since civil law is
generally the result of religious pressures.
In India, where the evils of over-population are
most obvious, the Brahman religion speaks out strongly
against the use of any contraceptive method on the grounds
that it is immoral and sinful. Similarly, the Confucian
religion in China, Shintoism in Japan, and Buddhism and
Mohammedanism are unequivocal in their stand against birth
control.
Among Western nations, the Roman Catholic Church is
the only major religious body which is still against birth
control. Earlier, many of the Protestant sects considered
I
i it an evil, but they have since recognized its need both
I
I for the individual family and as a proper means of combating
i
j over-population.
Contemporary Protestant thought on the matter was
ably expressed by Dr. E. W. Barnes, Bishop of Birmingham, j
England, when he stated that the current economic state of I
I
the world made large families a form of selfishness. He
felt that over-population and consequent starvation were
152
more to be feared than racism and war.^ The teachings of
the Roman Catholic Church and the nationalistic desire for
cannon fodder, he said, are producing over-population in
western civilization. Dr. Barnes concluded that this is
creating the gravest menace to humanity's future.
Effect of Birth Control Knowledge
Many population students, especially those most con
cerned with eugenics, express fear that succeeding genera
tions will become less intelligent due to higher birth
rates among the lower classes of society. In most countries
these higher birth rates for the lower groups exist because
it is only the more privileged who have access to birth
!control information.
But this need not be so. In 1927, Dr. Karl A, Edin,
Department* Chief of the Swedish Central Statistical Board, 1
made a study of Stockholm, a city in which knowledge of
family limitation had reached all economic groups in the
population, and found that the groups with the highest
incomes had the highest birth rates, while the lowest income
Q
groups had the lowest rates of reproduction.
A study of relative fertility in large German cities,
^ New York Times. May 13, 1949.
O
Proceedings. World Population Conference (London:
j Edward Arnold and Co., 1927), p. 206.
153
where knowledge of birth control was equally widespread,
was made by Dr. P. Burgdorfer, and produced results similar
g
to the Swedish study.
These discoveries led to further study by Dr. Edin
and Dr. Edward P. Hutchinson, of Harvard University, con
cerning the fertility of Stockholm residents. And their
conclusion was that the "observed fertility rates increased
without exception from the lowest to the highest education
, i 10
groups.
Other Limiting Methods
Some progress toward population limitation could be
made "fey the establishment of certain marriage qualifica
tions. If a higher minimum age for marriage, for example,
were imposed, it is practically certain that fewer children
would be born per marriage and the rate of. population
jincrease would thus be checked.
!
i Other effective marriage qualifications could be
established on the basis of health, mentality, moral
standard, education, and economic position. j
Legalized abortion has also been suggested as a means
^ Bulletin. The International Population Associa
tion, September, 1930.
10 Karl A. Edin and Edward P. Hutchinson, Studies in
Differential Fertility in Sweden (London; P. S. King and
Sons, 1935), P. B b . __________________ _ |
154
of curtailing population increase. This method apparently
operated in Russia during the early years of Communist rule.
In that nation the birth rate fell from 45. per thousand
population in 1927 to 32.4 in 1933, a span of years which
saw the spread of legal abortion. 11 It is reported that in
i
1934 some 270 abortions were performed in Moscow for every
100 live births. 12
This drastic means of population limitation seems
also to be operative in Japan where, in 1951, an estimated
one million abortions were carried out, compared to some
13
2 .2 million live births.
Voluntary sterilization is another rather drastic
method of population limitation. In Puerto Rico a slight
t
[decline in the birth rate recently has been interpreted as
resulting from the voluntary sterilization of women. A J
1
sampling in 1947 indicated that eight and one-half per cent '
l
of married Puerto Rican women under 50 years of age had
14
been sterilized voluntarily.
11
F. Lorimer, The Population of the Soviet Union
(Geneva: League of Nations'^ 1936), P* 13^.
12 Ibid.. P. 1 2 8.
^ Population Bulletin, op. cit., April, 1953*
14
Paul K. Hatt, Backgrounds of Human Fertility in
Puerto Rico (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1952T,
p. 444._______________________________________________________
Ill. CONCLUSION
155
It can be seen from the foregoing that two elements
are sufficient to bring about a decrease in the rate of
reproduction. The first is a desire for fewer offspring,
and the second is suitable knowledge of birth control plus
jthe resources to apply such knowledge. These factors have
i
I been sufficient in many advanced nations, and make more
I
|extreme means of population limitation, such as steriliza
tion and abortion unnecessary.
It follows that If the birth rate Is to be decreased
throughout the world, the two factors mentioned above would
have to be spread to the farthest reaches of the globe.
And it is doubtful to what extent this could be done. Cer-
jtainly many racial groups will continue to place emphasis
i 1
on large families, often many sons, and thus not acquire an !
I
effective desire for fewer children. And their poverty J
I
level of living will make it difficult to tempt with the
alternative between more children and various material goods.
The spread of birth control technique also raises
difficult problems. In addition to the aforementioned
religious and political sanctions against it, there is the
economic problem involved in the near prohibitive cost of
the required amount of birth control clinics, literature,
and material.
156
It Is likely, however, that these barriers will be
largely overcome In future years. Certainly some progress
can be made against them, and in fact is being made from
year to year.
One great step forward would be the discovery of a
contraceptive cheap enough and simple enough to be used by
large numbers of backward peoples. Progress along this
line was reported by Dr. Eli D. Goldsmith at a meeting of
the New York Academy of Sciences. Dr. Goldsmith had
developed a chemical that stopped pregnancy in mice with no
apparent harm, and which might prove suitable as a human
contraceptive.^
^ Time, October 29, 1951*
CHAPTER X
SUMMARY AND FINDINGS
This concluding chapter will estimate the ideal, or
optimum, population of the world under the present state of
the arts. The basis of this estimate will be the previously
analyzed data regarding the number of arable acres in the
world, and the number of acres considered necessary to pro
vide adequate sustenance for each individual. Although
attention will be focused on optimum population at the
present time, some thought will be directed to future
trends.
In addition, the possibility of achieving the chosen i
optimum world population, and the conditions necessary for
such an achievement, will be considered.
I. OPTIMUM WORLD POPULATION
I
This computation of desired world population will be 1
based on the assumption that four billion acres in the I
world are fit for agricultural production. It was shown in
Chapter VII that this is the acreage estimate of Dr. Hugh
H. Bennett. Other authorities, of course, have made more
lgener_Q.us._es_timat.es.,_and_o.ther_s_j3elie.v.e__that__fewer_acr_es_are_J
158
fit for farm use. But the four billion estimate seems to
reflect the consensus, and to allow for a fair degree of
i optimism. Four billion acres, incidentally, represents
twelve per cent of the land surface of the earth.
It will further be assumed that two acres are needed
to provide an adequate diet for every individual, and to
provide him with the desired amount of non-food farm pro
ducts. It is true that many students of the subject con
sider two and one-half acres necessary, but two acres is
closer to possible achievement and can be defended on the
grounds that present knowledge would permit greater per
acre yields through control of insect life and disease, and
more efficient use of farm products through the avoidance
of waste and spoilage.
It can easily be seen that these figures suggest an
optimum population of two billion under the current state
of the arts. Four billion acres would allow two acres per j
1
capita for two billion persons. Every consumer, then,
would be able to receive a suitable amount of farm produce,
and his diet would consist of the desired proportion of
primary and derived calories.
This can be referred to as an optimum population
because an increase over this figure, obviously, means that
ieach consumer will receive less, and hence have a lower j
I i
! standard of living. Furthermore, an increase in population I
159
demands more intensive farming which brings into play the
effect of diminishing marginal productivity. In other
words, more farm workers are applied per acre of land cul
tivated, and while yield per acre, up to a point, will
increase, yield per agricultural worker will decrease. And
the addition of farm workers means that less labor remains
for the production of non-farm products.
It should be apparent that intensive farming, with a
large percentage of workers engaged in agriculture, creates
a condition not capable of easy solution. Any transfer of
workers from the farm to industry, or any degree of mech
anization, results in a smaller total agricultural product-7
an effect that cannot be tolerated in an over-populated
nation.
Optimum Against Actual
It has already been noted that the population of the
world was estimated by the United Nations at 2,438,000,000
in mid-year 1951* And the rate of increase was such that a
population of 3 *6 billion was considered possible by 1 9 8 2.
Even allowing for a margin of error, it is obvious that
world population is far greater than the ideal estimated
above. This, along with starvation and near-starvation in
the world, points up the great need for population control.
An actual decrease in population seems to be in order; but
160
at the very least, it appears urgent that the rate of
increase be arrested.
Additional Food Sources
Various possibilities of greatly increasing the
i
(world's food supply, as outlined in Chapter VIII, might be
I advanced as a solution to the population dilemma. Syn-
i
thetic foods or food from the sea, for example, would
easily feed the extra millions if they are only a fraction
as successful as their proponents claim they will be. But
even assuming success, the consumption of food made from
trees, of "plankton-burgers” is hardly a desirable state of
affairs. The serious discussion of such extreme food sup
plies indicates that the population of the world is beyond
the optimum figure.
This does not discount, however, the existing tech
nological knowledge which is actually increasing farm yields
in many areas, and which can be used to continuing advan
tage throughout the world. The above analysis of optimum
i
population made due allowance for such increases.
II. CONDITIONS FOR ACHIEVEMENT
As explained in Chapter IX, the conditions necessary
for population control are; (l) the dissemination of birth
control technique through all classes of society in all_____
l6l
regions of the world, and (2) the desire for fewer children.
It is reasonable to suppose that inroads will gradu
ally be made against barriers to the effective operation of
birth control. The religious and political prohibitions
i that now exist should give way at an increasing rate as the
cultural level of the world advances. And the economic
cost of making birth control available to all peoples must
certainly be met upon realization that it is small compared
with the economic cost of over-population.
The desire for fewer children, which operates so
effectively in some parts of the world, should also spread
to many additional regions. And when enough people become
aware that an alternative exists between more children and
a higher standard of living, it is certain that the rate
i
of reproduction will fall sufficiently to create a strong j
tendency toward the ideal world population.
B I B L I O G R A P H Y
I
V
BIBLIOGRAPHY I
l
I
A. BOOKS
i
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I ^ |
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!
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i
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455 PP.'
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512 pp.
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^/iMarx, Karl, Capital: A Critical Analysis of Capitalist
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i
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l/l
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v/
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\
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I
j _______ > September, 1953*
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f ; ---, March 1 2, 1 9 4 9. 1
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' c. newspapers I
j !
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May 1 3, 1 9 4 9. !
4 — _____* June 22, 1 9 4 9.
' I 1
■ August 1 8, 1 9 4 9. !
I I
j August 25, 1 9 4 9.
— August 2 7, 1 9 4 9.
j — ----> December 2 1, 1 94 9. '
I — December 2 8, 1 9 4 9.
j — ----- - March 6, 1 9 5 0.
.
• ; — „ March 1 1, 1 9 5 0. '
— ----- - April 11, 1 9 5 0.
April 2 1, 1 9 5 0.
— , November 10, 1950.
i j _______ , February 3, 1951.
* _______ , February 12, 1951.
! _______ , March 28, 1951.
| _______ , April 20, 1951.
I
' , September 14, 1951*
i
' _______ , February 16, 1952.
i _______ , March 16, 1952.
_______ , April 21, 1952.
_______ , April 25, 1952.
; _______ , May 9, 1952.
, _______ , May 16, 1952.
_______ , May 21, 1952.
! _______ , September 6, 1952.
{ _______ , January 18, 1953*
J
_______ , May 31, 1953.
j _______ , August 24, 1953.
i San Francisco Chronicle, August 4, 1946.
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Creator Minick, John B (author)

Core Title An analysis of recent expert estimates of maximum world population at a minimum adequate standard of living

Degree Master of Arts

Degree Program Economics

Publisher University of Southern California (original), University of Southern California. Libraries (digital)

Tag Economics, General,Geography,OAI-PMH Harvest

Language English

Contributor Digitized by ProQuest (provenance)

Advisor Pollard, Spencer D. (committee chair), Garis, Roy L. (committee member), Phillips, E. Bryant (committee member)

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