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It’s the people, stupid!: A blueprint to creating a 21st century progressive populist Democratic Party

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It’s the people, stupid!: A blueprint to creating a 21st century progressive populist Democratic Party

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Content “IT’S THE PEOPLE, STUPID!”:
A BLUEPRINT TO CREATING A 21
ST
CENTURY PROGRESSIVE
POPULIST DEMOCRATIC PARTY
By Samuel Corey
A Thesis Presented to the
FACULTY OF THE USC GRADUATE SCHOOL
UNIVERSITY OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
In Partial Fulfillment of the
Requirements for the Degree
MASTER OF ARTS
(STRATEGIC PUBLIC RELATIONS)
August 2016

2.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS 4
LIST OF FIGURES 5
ABSTRACT 7
PREFACE 8
CHAPTER ONE: THE 2014 MIDTERMS &THE DEMOCRAT’S BIGGEST WEAKNESS 9
THE 2014 MIDTERM RESULTS 9
HISTORICAL CONTEXT AND WHAT WENT WRONG 10
COMMUNICATION BREAKDOWN 19
THE NEED FOR 21
ST
CENTURY REFORM 32
CHAPTER TWO: ADDRESSING THE DONKEY IN THE ROOM – SWOT ANALYSIS 34
STRENGTHS 34
1. THE DEMOCRATS ARE ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS ON
A NATIONAL LEVEL 34
2. THE AMERICAN CULTURE WAR SEEMS TO BE TILTING LEFT WITH MILLENNIALS
LEADING THE CHARGE 48
3. MANY OF THE DEMOCRAT'S PLATFORMS ALIGHN WITH POPULAR OPINION 70
4. THE "BLUE WALL" GIVES THE DEMOCRATS MORE PATHS TO THE WHITE HOUSE 89
WEAKNESSES 95
1. THEIR CURRENT COALITION OF VOTERS HAS THE LOWEST RATES OF REGISTRATION
AND STRUGGLE TO TURN OUT TO VOTE DURING MIDTERM ELECTIONS 95
2. INNEFFECTIVE COMMUNICATION AND LACK OF A COHERENT BRAND 99
3. WEAK SUPPORT AMONGST WORKING-CLASS WHITE VOTERS / RURAL COUNTIES 113
OPPORTUNITIES 126
1. PUSHING TO REGISTER AND MOBILIZE MORE VOTERS WITHIN THEIR COALITION
WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEMOCRATS IN DOWN-BALLOT ELECTIONS 126
2. DEVELOPING AND EFFECTIVELY COMMUNICATING A PROGRESSIVE AGENDA
CAN MOBILIZE A BASE INVIGORATED BY BARACK OBAMA AND UNITE THE
LIBERAL AND CENTRIST BRANCHES OF THE PARTY 133
THREATS 145
1. EMBRACING A PROGRESSIVE, POPULIST AGENDA COULD LIMIT THEIR AMOUNT
OF BIG-MONEY/SUPER PAC FUNDING 145
2. REPUBLICAN DOMINANCE AT A STATE LEVEL IS PRODUCING MORE
CONSERVATIVE-FRIENDLY ENVIRONMENTS TO SOLIDIFY POWER & REPUBLICAN
MAJORITIES IN CONGRESS WILL STALL ANY DEMOCRATIC AGENDA, MAKING THE
PARTY OF "BIG GOVERNMENT" LOOK INEFFECTIVE 153
3. IF THE REPUBLICANS MODERATE THEIR SOCIAL PLATFORMS, THEY COULD CUT
INTO MILLENNIAL AND MINORITY SUPPORT 172

3.
CHAPTER THREE: REBRANDING A 21
ST
CENTURY DEMOCRATIC PARTY 186
USE THE SOCIAL NETWORKING TACTICS EMPLOYED BY THE OBAMA CAMPAIGNS TO
RAISE VOTER AWARENESS, INVIGORATE THEIR BASE AND REBRAND THE PARTY 187
1. COMMUNICATE AN UPLIFTING, POSITIVE MESSAGE AT ALL LEVELS 190
2. ENCOURAGE DISCUSSION, NETWORK-BUILDING, INFORMATION-SHARING AND ENGAGEMENT
VIA SOCIAL MEDIA 197
3. USE THE INTERNET TO ACCUMULATE INDIVIDUAL DONATIONS 205
FIND WAYS TO INCREASE VOTER TURNOUT AND MOBILITY 207
1. MAKE REGISTERING TO VOTE EASIER 207
GIVE AMERICANS A REASON TO VOTE FOR THEM 209
1. A NEW GENERATION OF RELATABLE CANDIDATES AND A 21
ST
CENTURY NARRATIVE 208
2. STAND FOR SOMETHING 211
3. TAKE BACK THE DISCUSSION 216
4. PURSUE A PROGRESSIVE, PRAGMATIC, CENTER-LEFT PLATFORM THAT UNITES THE
LIBERAL AND CENTRIST FACTIONS OF THE BASE 219
BIBLIOGRAPHY 232

4.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

Although completing this thesis was an arduous procedure, it was an incredibly
rewarding experience. The tenure of authoring this document was an invaluable learning
process, both in American politics and my ability as a writer and researcher. However,
this effort couldn’t have been done without the help of numerous faculty, family, and
friends who all deserve my sincere gratitude.
I would like to thank my committee, which is comprised of Matthew Le Veque as
my chair, and Philip Seib and Dan Schnur as my two readers, for their guidance,
patience, assistance, and overall effort in helping me refine this document.
I am thankful to my family for their support and enabling me to pursue my
master’s degree at the University of Southern California.
There is also a host of friends who were provided me an unbelievably strong
network of encouragement and motivation throughout the past several months. They
include Sam Ashmore, Marc Ballon, Laura Davenport, Chris Ducas, Ryan Finn, Sean
Finn, Cyrus Jabbari, David Meffe, Fei O’Dwyer-Strang, Jonny O’Neill, and Logan
Taylor. Thank you all for your support.
Lastly, there are several people who influenced me to pursue this project that also
deserve recognition. I would like to thank Bernie Sanders, whose noble presidential
campaign has motivated me to pursue a career within the field of politics. I also
appreciate the efforts of The Young Turks and Secular Talk YouTube news channels for
inspiring the idea behind this thesis and becoming a growing voice for progressives.
My thesis could not have been completed without all of your help and I
immensely appreciate all of your help and support.

5.
LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 1: CNN 2010 and 2014 Midterm Exit Polls 11
Figure 2: Change in Officeholders in Two-Term Presidencies and Succession
Combinations Since World War II 17
Figure 3: Vote In Presidential Elections by Race (1992-2012) 34
Figure 4: Composition of Voting Population by Race (1996-2012) 35
Figure 5: Composition of Voting Electorate by Race (1996-2012) 35
Figure 6: Voting Rates in Presidential Elections by Race (1996-2012) 36
Figure 7: White Millennials are Divided in Partisan Leanings; Older Generations of
Whites Lean Republican 38
Figure 8: 2016 Partisan Shift in 15 Contentious States Based on Population Changes Alone 39
Figure 9: Top 10 Fastest Growing U.S. for Millennials by Percentage (2010-2013) 41
Figure 10: U.S. Population Distribution 42
Figure 11: Top 10 Fastest Growing U.S. Cities by Population (2013-2014) 43
Figure 12: Size of Metro and Presidential Vote (2012) 44
Figure 13: Percent of Americans Satisfied With How Blacks are Treated in Society 55
Figure 14: Majority Says the Nation Needs to Make Changes to Give Blacks Equal
Rights 56
Figure 15: Should the Government Promote Traditional Values? 61
Figure 16: Estimated Total of Youth Votes in 2016 in Presidential Primaries and Caucuses, By
Candidate 64
Figure 17: Democratic Winning Coalition in the Likely 2016 Presidential Electorate 68
Figure 18: Public Support for Marriage Equality by Generation 71
Figure 19: Historical Trends in Public Support for Legalizing Recreation Marijuana Use 72
Figure 20: American Popular Opinion on Various Gun Control Measures by Demographic 73
Figure 21: American Popular Opinion on Immigration 75
Figure 22: Circumstances Under Which Abortion Should be Legal 76
Figure 23: Trend in "Pro-Choice" Support by Gender, Age, and Party ID 76
Figure 24: American Popular Opinion on Normalizing Relations With Cuba 78
Figure 25: Partisan View on Medicare for All (Top) and Next Steps for the ACA (Bottom) 80
Figure 26: American Popular Opinion on Debt Free College 82
Figure 27: American Popular Opinion on Money and Wealth Redistribution 84
Figure 28: American Popular Opinion on Paid Sick / Maternity / Paternity Leave
from Employers 87
Figure 29: American Popular Opinion on Combating Climate Change 88
Figure 30: 2000-2012 Party Support by State 90
Figure 31: Initial “Crystal Ball” 2016 Electoral College Ratings (May 2015) 92
Figure 32: Voting Registration Rate Among Democratic Coalition 96
Figure 33: Voting Rates in Congressional Elections by Race (1978-2014) 96
Figure 34: Voting Rates In Congressional Elections by Age (1978-2014) 96
Figure 35: White Americans With Less than a Four-Year College Degree: Where they
Live & Their Support for Obama in 2012 121
Figure 36: Presidential Preference (2000-2012) 122
Figure 37: The 2000-2012 Electoral Split, By the Numbers 122
Figure 38: Electoral Results by County (1996 & 2012) 123
Figure 39: 95 Percent of Republican Districts are Majority White 124
Figure 40: Percent Voting by Family Income Bracket (2012 & 2014) 126
Figure 41: Differences in Ideology Between Voters and Nonvoters 127
Figure 42: Median Income at Different Levels of Political Participation 131
Figure 43: Net Support of Policy, Registered vs. Nonregistered 132
Figure 44: 2016 Democratic Primary Votes by Age (CNN Exit Polls) 140
Figure 45: Top 27 Corporate Donors to Republicans & Democrats (2002-2015) 147
Figure 46: Comparing Party Infrastructure 152
Figure 47: Control of the U.S. House of Representatives (1855-2010) 155

6.
Figure 48: Map of Redistricting Processes 163
Figure 49: Millennials are More Independent and Less Republican than Americans Over 30 182
Figure 50: Millennials Become Less Independent and More Republican as They Buy
Homes and Get Married 182
Figure 51: Millennials are Social Liberals and Fiscal Centrists 183
Figure 52: Opposition to Redistribution Rises With Income 183
Figure 53: Millennials are Less Willing to Pay More to Expand Social Safety Net the
More Money they Earn 184
Figure 54: American Adults who Use Social Media (2005-2015) 199
Figure 55: American Social Media Usage 200
Figure 56: Number of Americans on Social Media 201
Figure 57: Partisan View on Gun Proposals 211
Figure 58: Demographic Changes in Georgia by Race (1990-2010) 221
Figure 59: List of Reasons People Vote for One Candidate Over Another for
U.S. Senate/Congress 229

7.
ABSTRACT

The Democrats suffered devastating losses in the 2010 and 2014 Midterm
Elections, resulting in the forfeiture of their majority in the Senate, while the Republican
Party, riding the tidal wave of momentum provided by the Tea Party movement,
strengthened their grasp on the House, Governorships, and State Legislatures.
National opinion polls show, on an issue-by-issue basis, a majority of Americans
support many platform positions endorsed by the Democratic Party, and 2016 candidates
Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders. If this is the case, why are they struggling in down-
ballot elections, and pushing a progressive agenda? After using the 2014 Midterm
Election as a case study and developing a robust SWOT analysis, the Democrats have a
brand issue and a tendency of running center-right candidates and campaigns, in an effort
to syphon Independent and moderate Republican voters from the GOP. This has alienated
them from working-class, rural white voters and fails to inspire their coalition to turn out
to vote in sub-presidential elections, which hurts their ability to consistently seize
majorities in Congress, Governorships, and State Legislatures.
This thesis will argue why this is an outdated strategy through providing evidence
of a seismic shift in demographics, culture, political ideology, and technology. The
Millennial generation will present America’s largest, most diverse, pragmatic, and
politically neutral generation in American history. This thesis will argue the Democrats
should pursue and effectively communicate a progressive, populist, center-left platform
in order to thrive in the 21
st
Century.

8.
PREFACE
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

This document contains both primary and secondary research. The primary
research consists of four interviews – two with communications experts, one with a
political scientist, and one public relations executive who specializes in digital branding
to Millennials and Digital Natives. The secondary research includes digital news articles;
magazine features written by experts and journalists in the field; polling data; newscasts;
political science journals; campaign psychology studies; interviews of experts conducted
by various media outlets; scholarly books on politics, history, sociology, psychology, and
branding.

STATEMENT OF PURPOSE

After witnessing many Democratic candidates lose to Republicans in the 2014
Midterm Elections, I asked myself if American voters are becoming more conservative in
the midst of the Obama Administration. Upon researching various opinion polls from
Gallup, Pew Research, YouGov, and the New York Times, I realized Americans, on an
issue-by-issue basis, are a center-left electorate. Additionally, after witnessing Bernie
Sanders erode a 50-point deficit in the polls, en route to providing a viable foil to Hillary
Clinton’s candidacy, I realized that his dominance of young voters coincides with data
from opinion polls that reveals Millennials are considerably liberal on many predominant
political issues, driving America’s sociopolitical shift. Through more examination, I
developed a hypothesis that the American electorate is trending left on a national level,
and the Democrats should recalibrate accordingly in order to consolidate support from the
Millennial generation disillusioned with politics as usual, and thrive in future elections.

9.
CHAPTER ONE:
THE 2014 MIDTERMS &THE DEMOCRAT’S BIGGEST WEAKNESS

THE 2014 MIDTERM RESULTS
The 2014 Midterm Elections presented a particularly brutal pummeling for the
Democrats, as they haplessly witnessed the Republican Party make historic gains in the
nation’s state and federal legislatures. They currently control 68 out of 98 state chambers
– the highest number in the history of the Party of Lincoln. The elections also saw
sweeping gains by the GOP in the Senate, House and in numerous gubernatorial races.
1

Through a net gain of nine seats, the Republicans assumed control of the Senate for the
first time since 2006, and they scooped up 13 seats to increase their majority in the
House.
2
Two incumbent Democratic governors were also thwarted in their respective
races.
3
Most notably, this election resulted in the largest Republican majority in the entire
country in nearly a century. With 247 seats in the House, 54 seats in the Senate, 31
governorships, and 68 state legislative chambers, Republicans gained their largest
majority in the House, the largest majority in Congress overall, and the largest majority
of state legislatures since 1928.
4
Political scientist Gary C. Jacobson argues the voters
treated the election as a referendum on the economy and especially on Obama’s

1
“Midterm Election 2014: Data, Maps and State-by-State Results,” Wall Street Journal,
http://graphics.wsj.com/midterm-election-results-2014/, 2014.
2
“Midterm Election 2014.”
3
“Midterm Election 2014.”
4
Karen Pierog, "Republicans Gain Big in State Legislative Elections," Reuters. November 5, 2014.
Accessed December 8, 2015. http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-elections-states-
idUSKBN0IP2HB20141105.

10.
presidency. The result was the most partisan, nationalized, and president-centered
midterm election in at least 60 years.
5

After defending his Kentucky Senate seat against Democratic opponent Allison
Lundergan Grimes and emerging as the Majority Leader in the Senate, Republican
Senator Mitch McConnell addressed his constituents in a victory speech:
“I’ve heard your concerns and I’ve made them my own. When you get right down
to it, that’s what this campaign was all about … It was about a government that
people no longer trust to carry out its most basic duties: to keep them safe, to
protect the boarder, to provide dignified and quality care for our veterans. A
government that can’t be trusted to do the basic things because it’s too focused on
things that shouldn’t be focused on at all. A government that’s too busy imposing
its view of the world on people who don’t share that view.”
6

But does the overall American population share McConnell’s and the
Republicans’ view of government? According to a November 2014 CNN exit poll, eight
in 10 Americans disapproved of how Congress was handling its job, while almost six in
10 were dissatisfied with President Obama leading into the elections.
7
Forty-four percent
had a positive view of Democrats, while 40 percent had a positive view of Republicans.
If Americans elected the lesser-preferred party to run the body of government they have
the least amount of confidence in, what gives?

HISTORICAL CONTEXT AND WHAT WENT WRONG
Since the turnout of the 2012 Presidential Election was 57.5 percent, a much
higher rate then the 2014’s 36.6 percent – equating the two is like comparing apples and

5
Gary Jacobsen, "Obama and Nationalized Electoral Politics in the 2014 Midterm," Political Science
Quarterly, 130, no. 1 (2015): 1-25: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/polq.12290/epdf.
6
“Midterm Elections 2014 - Mitch McConnell on Win: ‘No Campaign Commercials,’” ABC News, last
modified November 14, 2014. http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/video/midterm-elections-2014-mitch-
mcconnell-victory-speech-26690455.
7
Jeremy Diamond, “2014 Exit Polls: Most Voters Dissatisfied with D.C.,” CNN, November 4, 2015,
http://www.cnn.com/2014/11/04/politics/midterm-exit-polls-1/index.html.

11.
oranges. Voter turnout in the 2010, a similar landslide victory for the Republicans, was
40.5 percent, a much closer electorate composition. When comparing results from the
2010 and 2014 Midterms, the differences in voting patters by race, age and gender are
mostly marginal – meaning conservatism hasn’t made the epic comeback that Republican
politicians and media pundits would like American voters to believe:
Figure 1: CNN 2010 and 2014 Midterm Exit Polls
8

9

2010 Midterms 2014 Midterms

Votes along racial lines between midterms remained mostly stagnant, aside from
remarkable gains with Asian and “Other” voters by the Republican Party in 2014. The
Democrats made modest improvements among females and voters aged 30-44 to win
their support in the most recent midterm cycle, but slightly more males gravitated toward

8
“CNN Election Center 2010,” CNN, last modified 2010,
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2010/results/main.results/.
9
“Election Results -- 2014 Election Center -- Elections and Politics,” CNN, last modified December 17,
2014, http://www.cnn.com/election/2014/results/main/.

12.
the elephant in the booth. The miniscule change in voting demographics during the past
two Midterms doesn’t suggest America’s electorate experienced a conservative surge as
the nation plods through sluggish economic growth and governmental dysfunction.
A 2014 study performed by Duke University researchers, published in Political
Behavior, “Blame, Responsibility and the Tea Party in the 2010 Midterm
Elections,” provides insights into the non-presidential year election that preceded the
Democrat’s recent debacle. This study notes midterms are often modeled as a referendum
on the President in office. The Duke scholars focused on the degree to which statewide
elections for Congress were effectively “nationalized,” and voters were motivated to
reject the national Democratic legislative agenda, primarily the American Recovery and
Reinvestment Act and the Affordable Care Act, dubiously dubbed “Obamacare.” More
interestingly, this research examines the extent voters blamed the current economic
conditions on the Democrats. The study analyzes data from the 2010 Cooperative
Congressional Election Study (CCES) to more than 55,000 respondents.
The study’s findings include:
10

• About 20 percent of the sample “blamed Democrats for the state of national
affairs” and almost all of these voted for Republican Congressional candidates.
11

• Further, “Another key group of voters, making up 48 percent of respondents,
believed both Democrats and Republicans were partly to blame for the nation’s
problems. A majority of this group, however, ultimately held Democrats
responsible in the voting booth for the fact that national conditions had not yet
improved, voting Republican by a 60-40 margin.” This means, “Tea Party
supporters and those who blamed both parties were two distinct groups of voters
contributing to the Democratic loss.”
12

• Overall, the data suggests it is too simplistic to characterize all voters who went
for Republican candidates as “anti-Obama or anti-Democrat.”

10
John Aldrich, Bradford Bishop, Rebecca D. Hatch, Sunshine Hillygus, and David Rohde. “Blame,
Responsibility, and the Tea Party in the 2010 Midterm Elections,” Duke University, 2014:
http://sites.duke.edu/hillygus/files/2014/05/AldrichetalPB.pdf.
11
Aldrich, Bishop, Hatch, Hillygus, and Rohde. “Blame, Responsibility, and the Tea Party,” 15.
12
Aldrich, Bishop, Hatch, Hillygus, and Rohde. “Blame, Responsibility, and the Tea Party,” 2.

13.
• The researchers estimate that, if voters who held both parties responsible for the
national state of affairs had split their votes evenly between the two parties, it
would have given Democrats a 5-percentage-point increase in vote share in House
races — “creating near parity with the Republicans,” and preventing a landslide in
that midterm election.
13

• The general takeaway for the 2014 Midterms from the data examined — which
echoes a previous Republican midterm sweep in 1994 — is that “in highly
nationalized midterm election years with dissatisfied voters and unified
government, we may expect to see the blame and responsibility attribution pattern
that we observed in 2010.”
14

The study concluded:
“The unique blame-attribution process among voters, along with the Tea Party’s
anger toward the policy efforts of a unified and Democratically controlled
government, helped to intensify the nationalization of this election in a way that
aided Republican success. National considerations factored into individuals’
voting decisions in a variety of ways in this election, and without either of these
two groups of voters, we likely would not have observed such a dramatic election
outcome.”
15

This study suggests voters who blamed both parties for national disarray may go
decisively for the party out of presidential power, with the most recent Congressional and
State elections being no different – the 2014 Midterms was more about the political
climate at the time more than a drastic ideological shift. The Guardian’s Gary Younge
summarizes the negative perception surrounding Obama and its impact on the 2014
Midterms:
“The midterms were a reflection on Obama’s presidency. His second term has
lacked purpose and direction as it has lurched from crisis to crisis, many of which
– the NSA, the IRS, White House security – have been self-imposed. Where he
has taken a stand, like on gun control after the shootings in Newtown,
Connecticut, Obama was unable to achieve legislative change. Where he has not
taken a stand, as with immigration reform, he is being punished for it. Polling
shows the public actually backs Obama rather than Republicans on key issues,
including mending rather than repealing Obamacare, immigration
reform, increasing the minimum wage, same-sex marriage and a host of other

13
Aldrich, Bishop, Hatch, Hillygus, and Rohde. “Blame, Responsibility, and the Tea Party,” 18.
14
Aldrich, Bishop, Hatch, Hillygus, and Rohde. “Blame, Responsibility, and the Tea Party,” 19.
15
Aldrich, Bishop, Hatch, Hillygus, and Rohde. “Blame, Responsibility, and the Tea Party,” 19.

14.
issues. The problem is few people have any confidence that Obama will actually
get any of them done.”
16

Complicating matters was the geographic location of these races. This election
cycle was mainly fought in battlegrounds that were in conservative-friendly states with a
disproportionate number of competitive states in which incumbent Democrats were
stepping down. Democrats have not captured Louisiana or Arkansas in a presidential
election since 1996, Georgia since 1992, and Alaska since 1964. A Democratic defeat in
these states is no great surprise. These states presented low-hanging fruit in which the
Republicans spent a considerable amount of energy, and roughly $4 billion in attempts, to
re-gain traditional or emerging bastions of conservatism.
17

President Obama also compounded an already bleak situation when made an ill-
advised comment during a speech in Chicago leading up to the races when he quipped, “I
am not on the ballot this fall. … But make no mistake — these policies are on the ballot,
every single one of them.”
18
Obama placed faith in his policies, but at the time leading up
to the midterms, his approval rating stood at 43 percent, staying stagnant during the past
year, according to Pew Research.
19
This comment gave every Republican admaker fodder
that perfectly fit within the mold of their campaign message: a vote for a Republican

16
Gary Younge, "Republicans Didn't Win as Big as You Think They Did. And Obama Didn't Lose," The
Guardian, November 4, 2014. Accessed December 8, 2015.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/nov/04/republicans-win-big-election-midterms.
17
"Election to Cost Nearly $4 Billion, CRP Projects, Topping Previous Midterms." Opensecrets. October
22, 2014. Accessed December 8, 2015. http://www.opensecrets.org/news/2014/10/election-to-cost-nearly-
4-billion-crp-projects-topping-previous-midterms/.
18
Chris Cilliza, "28 Words That Democrats Really Wish President Obama Didn’t Say Today." Washington
Post. Oct 2, 2014. Accessed December 15, 2015. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-
fix/wp/2014/10/02/28-words-that-democrats-really-wish-president-obama-didnt-say-today/.
19
Seth Motel, "Obama Job Rating Flat after Midterm Losses, unlike Bush, Ike, Truman." Pew Research
Center. November 13, 2014. Accessed December 8, 2015. http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-
tank/2014/11/13/obama-job-rating-flat-after-midterm-losses-unlike-bush-ike-truman/.

15.
candidate was a vote against Obama. It also forced Democratic candidates to retreat from
the President.
The Kentucky Senate race between McConnell and Grimes provides a
quintessential example. Throughout the campaign, Kentucky’s youthful secretary of state
was pressed on whether she voted for Obama in 2012, placing her in an awkward position
of estranging herself from the once perceived party leader.
20
Throughout each campaign
trail, Democratic candidates were forced to denounce the Obama Administration’s
blunders, including the disastrous rollout of the Affordable Care Act, problems at the
Department of Veterans Affairs, undocumented children flooding across the boarder,
ISIS terrorism and rampant fears about Ebola. As these issues festered, many Senate
Democrats would put the onus squarely on the President — and they were keeping their
distance from him.
Although media pundits and GOP politicians feign massive nationwide success,
all is not lost for the Democrats. Despite the Republicans seizing majorities in all levels
of government outside of the presidency in 2014, the election is hardly an endorsement
for the party’s contemporary platforms. Red states like Nebraska and Arkansas voted to
raise the minimum wage;
21
Alaska, Oregon and Washington D.C. voted to legalize the
recreational use of marijuana;
22
and Washington state voted for a gun control measure.
23

20
Phillip Rucker and Robert Costa, "Battle for the Senate: How the GOP Did It." Washington Post.
November 5, 2014. Accessed December 8, 2015. https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/battle-for-the-
senate-how-the-gop-did-it/2014/11/04/a8df6f7a-62c7-11e4-bb14-4cfea1e742d5_story.html.
21
Chokski, Niraj. "Marijuana and Minimum Wage Won Big on Tuesday." Washington Post. November 5,
2014. Accessed December 8, 2015. https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/govbeat/wp/2014/11/05/what-
happened-with-the-two-dozen-state-ballot-measures-worth-watching/.
22
Chris McGreal, "Oregon and Alaska Voters Approve Legalise Recreational Marijuana Laws." The
Guardian. November 5, 2014. Accessed December 8, 2015. http://www.theguardian.com/us-
news/2014/nov/05/oregon-legalises-marijuana-recreational.

16.
Oddly enough, voters chose Democratic platforms while they were electing Republican
candidates. The New Republic’s Danny Vinik states in his analysis of the Midterm
results: “When competitive elections are held in the Deep South and not California, they
cast a negative light on Obama’s policies and obscure the dislike of the Republican
agenda.”
24

Although Obama’s waning popularity played a substantial role in the
overwhelming Republican victories in 2014, it is part of the natural ebb and flow of
American politics, with many presidents causing damages to their parties. According to
Gallup’s survey, “Presidential Approval Ratings,” American presidents almost always
fall in the polls after they are elected, as they make policy choices and begin alienating
more blocs within the electorate.
25

Since World War II, there have been eight two-term presidencies: Dwight
Eisenhower, Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton, George W. Bush and Barack Obama, plus the
succession combinations of Franklin D. Roosevelt-Harry Truman, John F. Kennedy-
Lyndon B. Johnson, and Richard Nixon-Gerald Ford. Despite the differences in party
affiliation, what all of these Administrations have in common is all of these presidents
left their party in worse shape when they left office – at least in terms of lower elected
offices. From Truman to Obama, it’s a pretty sorry record:

23
Chris McGreal, "Washington State Voters on Course to Pass Gun Control Initiative." The Guardian.
November 2, 2014. Accessed December 8, 2015. http://www.theguardian.com/us-
news/2014/nov/02/washington-state-voters-gun-control-initiative-594.
24
Danny Vinik, "Election Day's Biggest Lie: A GOP Victory Will Be a Mandate." New Republic.
November 4, 2014. Accessed December 10, 2015. https://newrepublic.com/article/120117/2014-midterms-
winning-red-states-doesnt-give-gop-mandate.
25
"Presidential Approval Ratings -- Gallup Historical Statistics and Trends." Gallup, Accessed December
9, 2015. http://www.gallup.com/poll/116677/presidential-approval-ratings-gallup-historical-statistics-
trends.aspx.

17.
Figure 2: Change in Officeholders in Two-Term Presidencies and Succession Combinations Since World War II
26

Administration Governorships House Seats
Senate
Seats
State Legislative
Seats
State Legislative
Chambers Controlled
Roosevelt-Truman -7 -31 -10 -191 -6
Eisenhower -14 -48 -12 -843 -21
Kennedy-Johnson -15 -21 -7 -437 -12
Nixon-Ford -19 -49 -5 -800 -31
Reagan -2 -19 -8 +6 -7
Clinton -11 -45 -7 -524 -18
G.W. Bush -7 -42 -9 -324 -13
Obama* -11 -69 -13 -913 -30
*Results for Obama up to November 2014

However, through 2014, Barack Obama holds the modern record for overall
losses, as the current President has presided over two devastating midterms for his party.
From 2008 to the present, Democrats have racked up net forfeitures of 11 governorships,
13 Senate seats, 69 House seats, 913 state legislative seats, and 30 state legislative
chambers. In the latter three categories, Obama has doubled (or more) the average two-
term presidential loss from Truman through Bush.
27

Considering the aforementioned factors that contributed to the Democratic Party’s
particularly brutal defeat, a historically low voter turnout – 36.4 percent of eligible voters
arrived at the polls, the lowest since 1942, can be partially attributed as well.
28
Voter
turnout in presidential elections is historically much higher than in midterms – 58.2
percent of eligible voters voted in 2012, and 61.6 percent voted in 2008, the highest
turnout since 1968.
29

While the political and geographic factors contributing to this loss can’t be
understated, the demographic splits of 2014 General election voters reveal age, wealth,

26
Larry Sabato. "Why Parties Should Hope They Lose the White House." POLITICO Magazine. December
1, 2014. Accessed December 15, 2015. http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2014/12/presidents-bad-
for-their-parties-113241.
27
Sabato, “Why Parties Should Hope They Lose.”
28
Charlotte Alter, "Voter Turnout in Midterm Elections Hits 72-Year Low." Time. November 11, 2014.
Accessed Dec 15, 2015. http://time.com/3576090/midterm-elections-turnout-world-war-two/.
29
Alter, “Voter Turnout in Midterm Elections.”

18.
and race gaps continue to limit the Democrat’s ability to consistently secure power at the
state and Congressional level. Together, voters aged 45-64 and 65 and older comprised
65 percent of voters in 2014, while Americans 18-29 constituted only 13 percent, down
from 19 percent in Barack Obama’s re-election year. Pew Research polls conducted
immediately following the midterms show older voters overwhelmingly supported
Republican candidates, while younger voters displayed an affinity toward the
Democrats.
30

Class and racial bias remained strong. Those making under $50,000, who account
for 48 percent of the population, made up only 36 percent of voters, while those making
over $100,000 made up 30 percent of voters, but only 22 percent of the population.
31

High-income voters typically support the Republican Party and conservative economic
policies. In the 2014 cycle, black voters made up 12 percent of the national electorate,
compared to 11 percent in 2010 and 13 percent in 2012. African-American voters
drastically supported Democratic candidates by a 79-percentage point
margin.
32
Concomitantly, Latino turnout didn’t look as rosy for Democrats as it had in
past cycles. Latinos made up eight percent of voters in 2014, compared to 10 percent in
2012. Latinos picked Democrats by a measure of 26 percentage points.
33

30
"As GOP Celebrates Win, No Sign of Narrowing Gender, Age Gaps." Pew Research Center. November
5, 2014. Accessed December 9, 2015. http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2014/11/05/as-gop-celebrates-
win-no-sign-of-narrowing-gender-age-gaps/.
31
Sean McElewee. "The Income Gap at the Polls." POLITICO Magazine. January 5, 2015. Accessed
December 9, 2015. http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/01/income-gap-at-the-polls-113997.
32
McElewee, "The Income Gap at the Polls."
33
McElewee, "The Income Gap at the Polls."

19.
COMMUNICATION BREAKDOWN
Although plenty of geographic and logistical factors played a role in the
Democratic Party’s sorry Midterm performance, they aren’t exonerated from criticism.
The latest round of sub-presidential elections presents a microcosm of the Democratic
Party’s most conspicuous weaknesses moving forward into the 21
st
century – their
inefficient communications and lack of brand, which contributes to the lackadaisical
mobilization of their coalition. Shortly following their historical Midterm drubbing,
political commentator Rachel Maddow was interviewed on Late Night with Seth Meyers.
When asked about the Democrat’s decision to distance themselves from President
Obama, and their overall campaign strategy, she responded:
“I think it’s a weird strategic move, only because if you’re facing an election in
which you know the odds are stacked against you – and they always are against
the President’s party in the midterm – you have to decide what you have to work
with. Here’s the thing the Democrats have to work with: the Republicans have
spent the past six years decrying ‘Obamacare’ as the end of the world.

Now we have ‘Obamacare,’ and it’s working – costs are down, people are signing
up, and the sky didn’t fall down. Literally, it’s working the way it’s supposed to.
Millions of people have health care who didn’t have it before. So the
Republicans’ reason for living has just disappeared. The main thing they have to
talk about, they can no longer talk about. … They have nothing to say. That has
completely evaporated for the Republicans. So the Democrats have decided,
‘O.K. We don’t want to talk about it either.’

If your opponent loses the thing they’ve been using as a crutch for six years, and
you just let them walk away from it like it never existed, maybe you don’t deserve
to win. They don’t have the killer instinct it takes to make their opponents pay for
a big mistake.”
34

Simply put, the Democrats lacked a coherent message, de-emphasized their own
policies in immigration and health care, and chose a befuddling strategy to sideline their

34
Matt Wilstein. "Rachel Maddow: Maybe Democrats ‘Don’t Deserve to Win’ in Midterms." Mediaite.
October 17, 2014. Accessed December 12, 2015. http://www.mediaite.com/tv/rachel-maddow-maybe-
democrats-dont-deserve-to-win-in-midterms/.

20.
highest-profile messenger, Barack Obama. Concurrently, they decided to abandon their
liberal base, and run as a center-right party by mimicing some Republican platforms.
Even former National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) executive director Rob
Collins mocked the Democrat’s nonsensical messaging tactics. In an interview shortly
following the final results, he told reporters Obama was their “best messenger,” and they
“did the Republicans a favor” by keeping him silent on many of the campaigns. Collins
said the Democrats “left their base behind” and “became Republican-lite” because they
were so focused on garnering Independent and moderate Republican votes.
35
He
elaborated by blasting the Democrats for keying in on women’s issues and drifting away
from important economic issues – some campaign experts acknowledged this would have
spotlighted achievements in job creation, the stock market and gas prices: “I can’t
remember a Democrat who spent any kind of money in a significant way talking about
the economy. If I had a choice between talking about the number one issue we saw in
every single poll, and talking about a single issue, I would be talking about the number
one issue.”
36

The following three campaign ads by Allison Lundergan Grimes in Kentucky,
Mark Pryor in Arkansas and Michelle Nunn in Georgia provide perfect examples of their
blatant retreat from President Obama, cowering into Republican impersonators.
The Grimes ad begins with a cliché portrayal of Southern life, with her standing
in a field donned in hunting attire, keenly focused on skeet shooting. Her monologue

35
Peter Hambly. "GOP Thanks Dems for Sidelining 'best Messenger' Obama." CNN, November 6, 2015.
Accessed December 15, 2015. http://www.cnn.com/2014/11/06/politics/nrsc-call-obama-messenger/.
36
Hambly, ‘GOP Thanks Dems.”

21.
begins with, “Mitch McConnell wants you to think I’m Barack Obama.”
37
After listing
off personal attacks on her opponent while shooting down clay disks from the sky, she
turns to the camera with a stern look on her face and declares, “I’m not Barack Obama. I
disagree with him on guns, coal and the EPA.”
38

Pryor elected to pursue a completely Christian theocratic approach, as he
comfortably sits in a wooden armed-chair in what appears to be a living room, legs
crossed with his Bible situated in his lap, front and center for the viewer to see. He states,
“I’m not ashamed to say that I believe in God and I believe in his scripture. The Bible
teaches us no one has all the answers, only God does – and neither political party is
always right. This is my compass, my North Star – it gives me comfort and guidance to
do what’s best for Arkansas.”
39

Nunn opens on the defensive, magnifying her opponent’s (David Purdue) attack
of displaying a picture of her posing next to President Obama. She justifies this
apparently egregious photograph by stipulating this snapshot was taken at an event
honoring President George H.W. Bush, whom she worked for as CEO of Points of Light
Foundation. “Throughout my career, I’ve been able to work with Republicans and
Democrats,” she asserts. “That’s the same approach I’ll bring to the U.S. Senate.”
40

All three candidates lost in landslides, in what were projected to be competitive
races. Heading into the U.S. Senate elections in Kentucky, Arkansas and Georgia, the

37
"Alison for Kentucky TV Ad "Skeet Shooting"" YouTube. September 15, 2014. Accessed December 8,
2015. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z7Pa16JPUlY.
38
"Alison for Kentucky TV Ad "Skeet Shooting""
39
"North Star." YouTube. December 4, 2013. Accessed December 8, 2015.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mucYcm6moe0.
40
"Campaign 2014: Michelle Nunn 'Familiar'" Washington Post. October 20, 2014. Accessed December 8,
2015. https://www.washingtonpost.com/posttv/politics/campaign-2014-michelle-nunn-
familiar/2014/10/20/18a38fc2-588b-11e4-9d6c-756a229d8b18_video.html.

22.
Cook Political Report ranked each respective race as a “toss up,” while all three were
included in the Washington Post’s list of the top 11 races to watch in 2014.
41

42

McConnell was considered very vulnerable in the days leading up to the election
– he was unpopular with his constituents, suffered from low approval ratings, fell behind
in some state polls, and his weaknesses exposed during the primaries.
43
A number of
Republican challengers feverously fought to unseat him in the primaries, most notably
Matt Bevin, who was recently elected governor of the Bluegrass State.
44
McConnell
handily defeated Grimes, as he coasted to re-election with 56.2 percent of his state’s vote
– Grimes garnered 40.7 percent.
45

Pryor’s seat in Arkansas was considered more vulnerable, as the state has become
increasingly Republican since Bill Clinton was President. Although Pryor led challenger
Tom Cotton in cash-on-hand throughout the race, Cotton won with 56.5 percent of the
vote, while Pryor summoned 39.5 percent.
46

As incumbent Saxby Chambless retired from his seat in 2013, the race was
expected to be intensely competitive. In the October leading into the election, pollsters,
such as SurveyUSA, showed a very narrow gap, with Perdue only ahead on Nunn by one

41
"2016 Senate Race Ratings for November 23, 2015." The Cook Report, October 23, 2014. Accessed
December 15, 2015. http://cookpolitical.com/senate/charts/race-ratings.
42
Aaron Blake, Sean Sullivan, and Chris Cillizza. "The Top 11 Senate Races of 2014." Washington Post,
August 15, 2014, Accessed December 15, 2015. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-
fix/wp/2014/08/15/the-top-11-senate-races-of-2014-2/.
43
Ashley Alman. "Kentucky Senate Midterm Election Results: Mitch McConnell Defeats Alison
Lundergan Grimes." The Huffington Post. November 4, 2014. December 14, 2015.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/11/04/kentucky-senate-election-results_n_5865212.html.
44
Alman. “Kentucky Senate Midterm Election Results.”
45
"United States Senate Elections in Kentucky, 2014." Ballotpedia, Accessed December 15, 2015.
https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_elections_in_Kentucky,_2014.
46
"United States Senate Elections in Arkansas, 2014." Ballotpedia, Accessed December 15, 2015.
https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_elections_in_Arkansas,_2014.

23.
or two percentage points.
47
Purdue claimed the U.S. Senate seat in Georgia with 52.89
percent of the state vote, while Nunn accumulated 45.21 percent.
48

It’s worth noting all states are traditionally “red,” and a poorly managed campaign
isn’t the sole contributor to these defeats, but their puzzling branding strategies almost
certainly exasperated their woes.
“For Democrats, ‘I’m not that other guy you can’t stand’ is hardly a campaign
message that will motivate the base. That’s especially true in a midterm year,
when it’s the most reliably Democratic voters — young people and minorities —
who are likeliest to sit out Election Day.”
49

During the time of the 2014 midterms, unemployment was 5.8 percent – as
200,000 additional jobs were created in the month leading up to the races. Under Bush
and the Republicans, it soared as high as 10 percent. The national deficit has decreased
under Obama.
50
CNNMoney reports, “Since 2009, the U.S. stock market has been on a
tremendous bull market upswing for over six years. The S&P 500 has gained about 200
percent. So far, Obama is shaping up to be one of the best Presidents for the stock market
in modern history.”
51
Essentially, many metrics the Republicans use to slam Obama’s
handling of the economy actually favored the Democrats heading into the election, but
they decided to excommunicate the President and meekly portray themselves as diluted
conservatives.

47
"SurveyUSA Election Poll #21893." SurveyUSA, 28 October 28, 2014. Accessed December 15, 2015.
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=a7100a0d-bb48-4f31-ba69-0e06189a096a.
48
"United States Senate Elections in Georgia, 2014." Ballotpedia, Accessed December 15, 2015.
https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_elections_in_Georgia,_2014.
49
Bob Moser, "Southern Democrats, Meet Your Future: No More Republican Lite." Boston Globe. July 20,
2014. Accessed March 15, 2016. https://www.bostonglobe.com/opinion/2014/07/20/southern-democrats-
meet-your-future-more-republican-lite/0QCGp3SSv7YhNrsnTMVy6L/story.html.
50
Phillip Bump. "The Story behind Obama and the National Debt, in 7 Charts." Washington Post, January
5, 2015. Accessed December 14, 2015. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2015/01/07/the-
story-behind-obama-and-the-national-debt-in-7-charts/.
51
Long, Heather. "Obama’s Economy in 10 Charts." CNNMoney, October 28, 2015. Accessed December
15, 2015. http://money.cnn.com/gallery/news/economy/2015/10/28/obama-economy-10-charts/2.html.

24.
Brad Dayspring, the NRSC’s communications director, acknowledged the
Democrats actually had positive things to say about the economy, but was puzzled as to
why the Democrats never focused on those issues and stuck to women’s issues: “There is
an argument that gas prices were higher when he took office. But they never made it.
They stuck to a flawed strategy that talked about birth control and abortion through the
election. That was something we never understood.”
52

The 2014 Midterm is just another component of an ongoing trend in which the
Republicans set the tone of political discourse. During the GOP’s ongoing drift to far-
right conservatism, the Democratic Party seems content with being pulled to a centrist or
center-right platform position in an ideological game of tug-of-war. The Democrats
continue to pursue a 1990s tactic of portraying themselves as watered-down Republican
clones, thinking this would result in Independent and moderately conservative voters
gravitating to the party of the “socialist” Obama, when the electorate has the option of
choosing the party with a record of defending American conservatism throughout his
presidency. This strategy has failed the Democrats in the past, yet their political
strategists insist on banging their head against the proverbial brick wall.
The 2004 Presidential Election provides some historical context. Although
incumbent Presidents normally win reelections, and no wartime President has ever been
voted out of office – Bush was very vulnerable heading into a heated campaign against
Democratic nominee John Kerry. As the War in Iraq produced no “Weapons of Mass
Destruction” and mounting needless casualties, public support for the once popular war
started to wane. This seemed to adversely affect Bush’s approval ratings.

52
Hambly. “GOP Thanks Dems.”

25.
A June 2004 Gallup Poll reported Bush’s job approval rating at 48 percent. It
stated:
“Presidents’ approval ratings in the spring and summer of their election years are
generally good predictors of whether they will be re-elected. The last five
presidents who were re-elected – Bill Clinton, Ronald Reagan, Richard Nixon,
Lyndon Johnson, and Dwight Eisenhower – all had approval ratings above 50
percent in June of their re-election years. In fact, of those five, Reagan’s 54
percent was the lowest. On the other hand, the three recent presidents who were
defeated – the elder George Bush, Jimmy Carter, and Gerald Ford – all had
approval ratings below 50 percent in June of their respective election years. The
only president who bucked these trends and went on to be re-elected was Harry S.
Truman, of whom only 39 percent approved in late May/early June 1948.”
53

Bush certainly wasn’t facing impending doom heading into his re-election, but he
was far from a safe bet of reclaiming his seat in the Oval Office. In fact, economic
performance, usually the main determinant of a President’s performance in office, played
into Bush’s favor, but according to opinion polls, Kerry was the preferred candidate in
handling the economy.
54
GDP growth during 2004 was stronger than it was in 1996 when
Clinton sought re-election, but a campaign analysis by University of Buffalo political
scientist James E. Campbell reveals the public trusted Kerry.
“In five separate polls conducted in October by Gallup, respondents favored
Kerry over Bush in dealing with the economy by an average margin of 51 to 44
percent. Eight polls by ABC News conducted in October also indicated that Kerry
held, on average, a 48 to 46 percent advantage over Bush regarding who likely
voters thought would do a better job of handling the economy. The Los Angeles
Times exit poll found that nearly half of Kerry voters said that the economy was
the most important problem, whereas fewer than one in five Bush voters had the
economy at the top of their concerns. The exit polls indicated that Kerry received
80 percent of the votes of those who thought that the economy (and jobs) was the
most important issue in the election. Finally, although Bush had a general job

53
Jeffrey Jones, "Bush's Re-Election Prospects Unclear From Historical View." Gallup, June 29, 2004.
Accessed December 14, 2015. http://www.gallup.com/poll/12175/bushs-reelection-prospects-unclear-from-
historical-view.aspx.
54
Jones, “Bush’s Re-Election Prospects.”

26.
approval rating of 52 percent of reported voters in the NES, only 44 percent of
them indicated that they approved of his handling of the economy.”
55

Granted, the political climate amongst the national electorate during the time was
more conservative as it is currently, but partisan polarization began to fester, as
Democratic voters carried an “anybody but Bush” attitude. Bush’s campaign decided to
forego focusing on a relatively strong economy and focus on his leadership during the
War on Terrorism. His foreign policy became incredibly splitting, with Democratic
voters developing a visceral distaste to American intervention in “democratizing” Iraq.
This provided Democrats an opportunity to offer a contrasting foreign policy agenda.
Rather, the “vehemently pacifist and rabidly anti-war party did a 180 degree turn around
and created the most militaristic show since Eisenhower landed in Europe,”
56
when Kerry
was announced the party nominee at the 2004 Democratic National Convention. “Kerry,
saying he’s ‘reporting for duty,’ greeted Americans in the most macho, Republican kind
of way with a crisp salute.”
57

This was Kerry’s time to shine in distinguishing himself from the incumbent, but
his message was convoluted and confusing – Americans had no idea what he favored or
opposed or what he would do differently from Bush. During the primaries, Kerry joined
running mate John Edwards in opposing Iraq liberation. They were driven by both their
voters’ staunch disdain of the war and by former Presidential contender Howard Dean’s

55
Campbell, James. "Why Bush Won the Presidential Election of 2004: Incumbency, Ideology, Terrorism,
and Turnout." University of Buffalo. Political Science Quarterly, (2005): 8,
http://www.acsu.buffalo.edu/~jcampbel/documents/Forum2004jc.pdf.
56
Adam Sparks, "Why Kerry Will Lose The Election / VIEW FROM THE RIGHT." San Francisco Gate,
August 9, 2004. Accessed December 14, 2015. http://www.sfgate.com/politics/article/Why-Kerry-Will-
Lose-The-Election-VIEW-FROM-THE-2735148.php.
57
Sparks, “Why Kerry Will Lose.”

27.
formidable fund raising and momentum, driven by his boisterous antagonism to Bush’s
foreign policy.
“Kerry clearly indicated he was always against the war, but that was after his vote
in favor of the war, but not for war funding, which should not be understood as
support, and in any case he would have done it much differently. His concern is
now a lack of any real coalition and U.N. support, but when the United States had
the backing of the United Nations and a real international presence in Desert
Storm after Iraq invaded Kuwait, Kerry voted against that intervention. That
information should clear it up for all those undecided voters who really wanted to
know. Throughout the campaign, he refused to say that Iraq was a mistake.
Therefore, voters perceived that his stance was not radically different from the
President’s. It seemed he wanted to move things along in Iraq, and that was not
different enough for the American people to change chief executives.”
58

“Moral values” also ranked ahead of the economy for most important issues
heading into the election.
59
Kerry aligned himself in opposition to marriage equality at a
time when his home state of Massachusetts was set to become the first state to legalize
gay marriage. Likewise, on abortion, he voted against a ban on partial-birth abortion, but
he declared during the campaign trail that life begins at conception.
60

The Bush campaign also effectively caricatured Kerry as the quintessential
Massachusetts elitist liberal. The Club for Growth had labeled, in one of its early ads,
Howard Dean as a “Volvo driving, latte drinking” elitist.
61
This smear also had adverse
effects on Kerry. Compounding his image as a stiff northeastern leftist who’s out of touch
with American values, his inconsistency between his voting record and his rhetoric
provided plenty of vulnerabilities ripe for attack.
62
The Swift Boat Veterans for Truth
lashed out at his character, casting doubt about medals he received for his service,

58
Sparks, “Why Kerry Will Lose.”
59
Campbell, “Why Bush Won,” 8.
60
Sparks, “Why Kerry Will Lose.”
61
Stephen Heiner, "Why John Kerry Lost the 2004 Election." Stephen Heiner Blog. May 22, 2008.
Accessed December 12, 2015. http://stephenheiner.blogspot.com/2008/05/why-john-kerry-lost-2004-
election.html.
62
Heiner, "Why John Kerry Lost.”

28.
asserting his claims about his service in Vietnam were exaggerated and augmenting his
anti-war protests at the time.
63
Additionally, Kerry’s twenty-year record was a severe
handicap exposed by the Bush campaign: it inevitably revealed changed positions,
apparent inconsistencies, and political compromises. His complicated explanations were
joyfully trumpeted by Republicans as admissions that he was no more than a ‘flip-
flopper,’ unreliable as a potential commander in chief.”
64
Bush even characterized
Kerry’s appeal by saying, in effect, of course he’s popular, adding, “He’s been on every
side of every issue.”
65
Kerry was unable to recover from these attacks, as he had no
cohesive message.
Kerry ultimately lost the popular vote by 2.7 percentage points.
66
He simply didn’t
provide enough of a positive alternative to Bush to rally a coalition that was more anti-
Bush than pro-Kerry. If this slim margin of Republican victory is indicative of the moral
lesson of this campaign, it shows that the Democrats picked the most vanilla campaign
and most moderate candidate, aligning with more Republican than Democratic platforms,
and the party still lost to a susceptible Presidential incumbent in the midst of a more
conservative national political climate.
As history unfortunately repeated itself for the Democrats, they lost the 2014
election because they ran away from Obama, they distanced themselves from their record
and the American people, and, perhaps most importantly, they were not aggressive and
progressive.

63
Heiner, "Why John Kerry Lost.”
64
Heiner, "Why John Kerry Lost.”
65
Sparks, “Why Kerry Will Lose.”
66
Campbell, “Why Bush Won,” 16.

29.
The Democrats who ran on progressive records found success in the 2014
election. Senator Al Franken secured his Senate seat in Minnesota by railing against
bankers, advocating for student loan reform, and defending the Affordable Care Act. He
ran as an Elizabeth Warren-style Democrat, “running a populist campaign that didn’t
shirk discussion of the specific policies Democrats could pursue to help the middle class.
And voters rewarded him.”
67
Adam Green, co-founder of the Progressive Change
Campaign Committee (PCCC), said, “This wasn’t a safe seat. He earned his victory by
being a proud populist Democrat for six years and inspiring voters.”
68
Jeff Merkley
cruised to a strong reelection in Oregon through attacking the Koch brothers’
protection of their business interests in fossil fuel, vowing to “do all I can to take on
global warming and carbon pollution.”
69
He also promised to continue to work to
invest in infrastructure, education, work for good-paying jobs, and keep fighting for
the middle class.
70
Jeff Schatz used his populist platform to help defeat a more
conservative Democrat to win Hawaii’s Senate seat. Additionally, Ohio Senator Sherrod
Brown embraced that reputation and sailed to reelection in 2012 despite his progressive
campaign and record as one of the most liberal Senators in Congress.
Some Democrats argue the electoral map, not insufficient liberalism, was the
main culprit in their lack of midterm success. The party lost five seats in states where
President Obama got 42 percent of the vote or less – West Virginia, Montana, South
Dakota, Arkansas, Louisiana and Alaska. With those states added to Republican-leaning

67
Patrick Caldwell, "Al Franken Was Liberal Enough, Tough Enough, and Doggone It People Reelected
Him." Mother Jones. November 11, 2014. Accessed December 14, 2015.
http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2014/11/al-franken-minnesota-senate-model-progressive-campaign.
68
Caldwell, “Al Franken Was Liberal Enough.”
69
Mapes, Jeff. "Jeff Merkley Defeats Monica Wehby in U.S. Senate Race: Oregon Election Results 2014."
Oregon Live. November 4, 2014. Accessed December 14, 2015.
http://www.oregonlive.com/mapes/index.ssf/2014/11/jeff_merkley_leads_monica_wehb.html.
70
Mapes, “Al Franken.”

30.
contests in Kansas, Iowa and North Carolina, many Democrats believe they had to play
the hand the map dealt them. Meanwhile, the aforementioned Senators ran in safe
Democratic states.
71

“Mark Pryor cannot run on the same exact message that perhaps Elizabeth Warren
could,” a Democratic strategist and Hillary Clinton supporter said of the Arkansas senator
who lost. “Senate candidates in particular did the best that they could under the
circumstances and they ran on messages that they felt reflected the Democrats that they
were speaking to gain support from.”
72

Bill Burton, a political consultant and former Obama press secretary, said the
Democrats face more of a messaging issue than a policy issue and most Democrats do
back core progressive ideology: “I don’t feel that there are real policy differences that
they are talking about. There might be some differences on tax policies, maybe some
conservative Democrats have a different idea on individual or corporate tax rates, but on
things like Wall Street reform and minimum wage, Democrats are pretty close
together.”
73

Green echoed Burton’s analysis: “The reason Democrats lost in 2014 was that
there was not a united and bold Democratic economic vision, it was very much an
election about nothing, in some cases, small-bore or conservative ideas. The real issue is
that the Democratic Party has not painted a picture in people’s minds of what a bold,
populist Democratic governing agenda looks like.”
74

71
Kamisar, Ben. "Progressives' Answer to 2014 Midterm Election Results? Be More Liberal." The Hill.
November 16, 2014. Accessed December 14, 2015. http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/224276-
progressives-answer-to-2014-be-more-liberal.
72
Kamisar, “Progressives’ Answer to 2014 Midterm.”
73
Kamisar, “Progressives’ Answer to 2014 Midterm.”
74
Kamisar, “Progressives’ Answer to 2014 Midterm.”

31.
The gap between the Warren-wing of the Democratic Party and the more
moderate Democrats, characterized by Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton, isn’t nearly as
wide as the distance between moderate and Tea Party Republicans. Notwithstanding, the
general population embraces even the most progressive and left-leaning platforms in
greater numbers than the most radical Tea Party proposals. The party needs to coalesce
an agenda that broadcasts job creation, fixing the tax code, Wall Street reform, cutting the
cost of college and student loans, and preserving (but modernizing) Medicare and Social
Security.
Vermont Senator and 2016 Presidential candidate Bernie Sanders, whose populist
progressive domestic agenda has been the primary’s biggest surprise, posits Americans
want a more progressive message despite the midterm results, during an interview on the
“Big Picture” radio show with Thom Hartmann:
“The irony of our time is that on virtually all of the important issues, the
American people want government to act on their behalf and are progressive. The
bad news is, for a hundred different reasons, they are voting for the candidates
that are opposed to everything they believe in and we’ve got to figure that one
out.”
75

As mentioned earlier, voters backed Democratic platforms in state ballot
initiatives, but the Democrats proved to be discombobulated and incoherent in their
vision for America. Ironically, in Illinois, voters rejected Democratic Governor Pat Quinn
and elected Republican venture capitalist Bruce Rauner, even as they backed a flurry of
progressive ballot initiatives. Voters supported a “Right to Vote” amendment, a tax on
millionaires to sustain education funding, a minimum wage increase, and an amendment

75
Kamisar, “Progressives’ Answer to 2014 Midterm.”

32.
requiring insurance plans to cover contraception.
76
Rauner’s win came at a time when he
clearly opposed both a minimum wage increase and the millionaire tax, making his
victory all the more striking and puzzling.
77

THE NEED FOR 21ST CENTURY REFORM
The Democratic Party’s performance at down-ballot elections is beginning to
develop into a serious problem for the party. Republicans now hold 32 governorships.
Democrats hold just 17, down from 29 at the start of President Obama’s term. The
Obama era has been particularly brutal to Democrats. The current 114
th
Congress is
comprised of 188 Democrat House seats to 247 Republican, and 44 Democrat Senate
seats to 54 Republican.
As the Republicans solidify their vice grip on America’s legislative bodies, they
will present a formidable gridlock that will hamper any progressive agenda introduced by
any potential Democratic President. The Democrats are beginning to realign themselves
with FDR, JFK, and LBJ-era economic and social liberalism, their base is experiencing
its highest rates of liberal beliefs in decades, and the overall national cultural climate is
shifting leftward, driven by Millennials. But their failure to secure more Senate and
House seats is concerning, as it will continue to be a roadblock for any prospective
Democratic President to make legislative progress in office. Such federal dysfunction will
be detrimental to the image of the party of “big government.” Additionally, governors
and state legislators provide each party with future leaders, as states are viewed as the

76
Dave Jamieson and Samantha Lachman. "Democrats Had Winning Issues, Just Not Winning
Candidates." The Huffington Post, November 5, 2014. Accessed December 14, 2015.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/11/05/democrats-midterm-election-_n_6108722.html.
77
Jamieson and Lachman, “Democrats Had Winning Issues.”

33.
“laboratory of democracy,” meaning the Republicans will have more people to draw from
for future elections. Considering the two frontrunners for the party’s nomination in 2016
will be 70 or older come the next Election Day, this doesn’t bode well for the party’s
future leadership.
The 2014 Midterm Elections give a clear depiction of the Democrat’s most
glaring weaknesses moving onward into the 21
st
century: they have to bolster their
communications efforts in order to effectively brand their party and rally their coalition to
turn out to State and Congressional elections in higher rates. While Millennials, Latinos
and African-American voters currently turn out in lower rates than older, white voters,
they will become increasingly prominent voting blocs within five to 10 years. This rings
especially true for the Millennial generation, as it will be the largest, most diverse and
potentially the most progressive in American history. Ensuing generations are projected
to continue this trend of expanding ethnic diversity. Although concretely discerning the
political leanings of the Millennial generation is difficult, as they are mainly Independent,
their wariness of the current state of politics and their affinity of inclusivity and tolerance
can’t be understated. It is of utmost importance for the Democrats to pinpoint and better
understand the seismic shift in culture, communications, technology, and political
ideology in order to prosper into the 21
st
century.

34.
CHAPTER TWO:
ADDRESSING THE DONKEY IN THE ROOM – SWOT ANALYSIS

STRENGTHS

1. THE DEMOCRATS ARE ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS
ON A NATIONAL LEVEL
In 2012, President Obama lost white voters by a larger margin than any winning
presidential candidate in U.S. history. Obama lost ground from 2008 with almost every
segment of the white electorate, recording the weakest national performance for any
Democratic nominee with white voters since the Republican landslides of the 1980s. But
Obama rode the momentum of support from minorities across the nation, and often much
more competitive showings among whites in both Democratic-leaning and battleground
states, to win reelection by a fairly comfortable margin. A lackluster economic recovery
from the Great Recession didn’t stop Obama from winning 51 percent of the popular
vote, beating Mitt Romney by 5 million ballots, and garnering 332 Electoral College
votes. Obama’s reelection marked the fifth time in the previous six presidential elections
the Democrats carried the popular vote, matching the Republican record from 1968-1988.
Figure 3: Vote In Presidential Elections by Race (1992-2012)
78

Race 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012
White 39% 43% 42% 41% 43% 39%
Black 83% 84% 90% 88% 95% 93%
Hispanic 61% 72% 62% 58% 67% 71%
Asian 31% 43% 54% 58% 62% 73%

78
Thom File. "Who Votes?: Congressional Elections and the American Electorate: 1978–2014." U.S.
Census. July 1, 2015. Accessed December 28, 2015.
http://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/publications/2015/demo/p20-577.pdf.

35.

Figure 4: Composition of Voting Population by Race (1996-2012)
79

Race 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012
White 82.5% 80.7% 79.2% 76.3% 73.7%
Black 10.8% 11.7% 11.1% 12.3% 13.4%
Hispanic 4.7% 5.4% 6.0% 7.4% 8.4%
Asian 1.7% 1.8% 2.2% 2.6% 2.9%

Figure 5: Composition of Voting Electorate by Race (1996-2012)
80

Race 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012
White 79.2% 77.7% 75.2% 73.4% 71.1%
Black 11.9% 12.2% 11.9% 12.1% 12.5%
Hispanic 6.1% 7.1% 8.2% 9.5% 10.8%
Asian 2.1% 2.5% 3.2% 3.4% 3.8%

Based on the three tables above, African-Americans, Hispanics, and Asians have
been either steadily or increasingly supportive of Democratic candidates. Moreover, each
of these demographics are budding, increasing their share of the voting population and
voting electorate, and this growth is projected to continue.
Latinos will make up 13 percent of all eligible voters in 2016, a 2 percent increase
from 2012.
81
If the numbers hold, by 2020, Hispanic voters will represent at least 15
percent of the overall vote, says Spencer Kimball, a Republican strategist who teaches
communication studies at Emerson College.
82
The numbers are much higher in some
states. In Florida, for example, the share of eligible voters who are Latino will increase
from 17.1 percent in 2012 to 20.2 percent in 2016 and in Nevada, the 2012 to 2016
Latino eligible voter will increase from 15.9 percent to 18.8 percent.
83
Meanwhile, the
Asian vote will move up to four percent by 2016. By 2020, almost 4.2 million additional

79
File, “Who Votes?”
80
File, “Who Votes?”
81
Lizet Ocampo. "Top 6 Facts on the Latino Vote." Center for American Progress. September 17, 2015.
Accessed December 28, 2015.
https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/immigration/news/2015/09/17/121325/top-6-facts-on-the-latino-
vote/.
82
"The Changing Face of the Nation: How Hispanic and Asian Voters Could Reshape the Electorate in Key
States." Partnership for a New American Economy. 2015. Accessed December 28, 2015.
http://www.renewoureconomy.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/PNAE_Voting_Brief.pdf.
83
“The Changing Face of the Nation.”

36.
Hispanic and Asian residents will naturalize and become eligible to vote.
84
Also by 2020,
almost 8.2 million Hispanic and Asian citizens will turn 18 years old and become eligible
to vote for the first time. The African-American share will remain stable at 13 percent by
2016 – a key cohort for Democrats.
85

Figure 6: Voting Rates in Presidential Elections by Race (1996-2012)
86

Much is debated about whether the next Democratic Presidential candidate can
maintain as much enthusiasm amongst these groups as a historically significant
candidate, but African-Americans are the second-highest group who turns out to vote
(and was trending upward before Barack Obama), while Hispanic and Asian voter
turnout has seen an upswing since 1996.
The Democratic Party’s struggle with white voters, notably working-class and
senior citizens, is notable. However, changing demographics amongst whites are
displacing groups that vastly support Republican with those who are generally warmer
toward Democrats:

84
“The Changing Face of the Nation.”
85
Amy Walter and David Wasserman. "African American Voters: The Overlooked Key To 2016." The
Cook Report. July 10, 2015. Accessed December 28, 2015. http://cookpolitical.com/story/8666.
86
File, “Who Votes?”

37.
• Working class whites and whites without a college degree are substantial
Republican voters:
o In 1984, non-college whites represented 62 percent of the total vote, while
college-educated whites constituted just 27 percent.
87

o Since then, according to the exit polls, the share of the vote cast by those
working-class whites has declined in every election except 2000, hitting a
low of 36 percent in 2012.
88

• The share of college-educated whites grew through the 1990s and has
fluctuated in a narrow range since:
o In 2012, the exit poll found, college-educated whites also cast 36 percent
of the vote, marking the first time they have equaled working-class
whites.
89

o These working class, non-college whites — who skew older and more
rural — decline 3 percentage points every four years as a share of the
overall electorate.
90

o Contrastingly, white degree-holders — who still lean Republican but are
much likelier to support Democrats than whites without a degree — rise a
percentage point every four years.
91

• Every Democratic nominee since 1980 has also performed better among
white women than white men:
o Each gender represented an equal share of the vote in 1984, but in 2012
white women outvoted white men 38 to 34 percent.
92

• Gender and education attainment further reinforces the gender gap at the
polls:
o Men without a college education have become the most reliable source of
GOP votes while women with a college degree are strong Democratic
supporters.
o Blue-collar men tripled the vote of white-collar women in 1984, but in
2012, college women outvoted non-college men 19 to 17 percent.
93

o The share of white adults with at least a four-year degree has increased in
every year (except two) since 1981, with women receiving two-thirds of
those degrees, this gap could widen.
94

• Marital status pushes in the same direction less dramatically:

87
David Wasserman. "How Demographics Will Shape The 2016 Election." FiveThirtyEight. December 3,
2015. Accessed December 28, 2015. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-demographics-will-shape-the-
2016-election/.
88
Wasserman, “How Demographics Will Shape.”
89
Wasserman, “How Demographics Will Shape.”
90
Wasserman, “How Demographics Will Shape.”
91
Wasserman, “How Demographics Will Shape.”
92
Ronald Brownstein. "Republicans Can't Win With White Voters Alone." The Atlantic. September 7,
2013. Accessed December 28, 2015. http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2013/09/republicans-cant-
win-with-white-voters-alone/279436/.
93
Brownstein, Ronald. "The Hidden History of the American Electorate (II)." Yahoo! News. August 23,
2012. Accessed March 12, 2016. http://news.yahoo.com/hidden-history-american-electorate-ii-
214148903.html.
94
Brownstein, “The Hidden History.”

38.
o Every Democratic nominee since 1980 has run better among single than
married whites.
o In 1984, married couples represented 70 percent of all white voters; by
2012, that number slipped to 65 percent.
95

o The decline has been especially sharp among married white men, who
have voted more Republican than married women in each election since
1984.
• Generational trends among white voters are favorable to Democrats: Each
successive cohort becomes more accepting of the party.
96

Figure 7: White Millennials are Divided in Partisan Leanings; Older
Generations of Whites Lean Republican
97

The non-white share of the voters is expected to reach 30 percent in 2016 and 34
percent by 2020. Nationally, Republicans would need to win a 2.8 percent higher share of
non-whites just to offset the rise in the non-white share of the vote in 2016.
98
A
Democratic candidate would need to receive 80 percent of the non-white vote in 2016,
which the party has successfully accomplished since the Reagan years, while only
needing 37 percent of the white vote.
99

100
Although Clinton is unpopular with white

95
Brownstein, “The Hidden History.”
96
Brownstein, “The Hidden History.”
97
"A Deep Dive Into Party Affiliation." Pew Research Center for the People and the Press. April 7, 2015.
Accessed December 28, 2015. http://www.people-press.org/2015/04/07/a-deep-dive-into-party-affiliation/.
98
Wasserman. "How Demographics Will Shape 2016 Election."
99
"Election Polls -- Presidential Vote by Groups." Gallup, Accessed December 28, 2015.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/139880/election-polls-presidential-vote-groups.aspx.
100
Brownstein, “The Hidden History.”

39.
voters, she is allowed some wiggle room to underperform Obama with this demographic.
On a state level, where the Electoral College determines the fortunes of Presidential
hopefuls, the Cook Report breaks down 15 competitive states decided by less than 10
percent in 2012:
101

Figure 8: 2016 Partisan Shift in 15 Contentious States Based on
Population Changes Alone
102

Another noteworthy development that will have long-term residual effects on the
each party’s social platforms is the tectonic shift of religion currently undergoing in the
United States. Pew Research conducted a study in May 2015 titled, “America’s Changing
Religious Landscape,” which examined changes in religious practices from 2007 to 2014:
• The number of Christians in the United States is declining: The United States
still hosts more Christians than any other country in the world, but this trend is
driven mainly by steep regressions in Mainline Protestants and Catholics.

101
Wasserman, David. "Mapping the 2016 Electorate: Demographics Don't Guarantee a Democratic White
House." The Cook Report. June 19, 2015. Accessed December 28, 2015.
http://cookpolitical.com/story/8608.
102
Wasserman, “Mapping the 2016 Electorate.”

40.
• Although the amount of Christians is falling (from 78.4 percent in 2007 to
70.6 percent in 2014), the number of Evangelicals is growing: Pew Research
estimates this faith has accumulated between 2 and 5 million new members since
2007.
103

• The growth of Evangelical Protestants is outpaced by the rapid ascent of the
religiously unaffiliated: Between 2007 to 2014, America’s areligious population
has ballooned from roughly 36.6 million to 55.8 million, a 6.7 percent growth.
104

Accounting for 22.8 percent of Americans, the religiously unaffiliated are now
second in size only to Evangelical Protestants among major religious groups in
the U.S.
• Additionally, one-in-three Americans under the age of 25 are unreligious: At
a time when many U.S. religious groups are aging, “the unaffiliated are
comparatively young – and getting younger, on average, over time. As a rising
cohort of highly unaffiliated Millennials reaches adulthood, the median age of
unaffiliated adults has dropped to 36, down from 38 in 2007 and far lower than
the general (adult) population’s median age of 46.”
105

The Center of American Progress reports:
This trend of non-religious affiliation, “combined with growth among non-
Christian faiths and race-ethnic trends, will ensure that in very short order we will
no longer be a white Christian nation. Even today, only about 55 percent of adults
are white Christians. By 2024 that figure will be down to 45 percent. That means
that by the 2016 election (or 2020 at the outside) the United States will cease to be
a white Christian nation. Looking even farther down the road, by 2040 white
Christians will be only around 35 percent of the population and conservative
white Christians (a critical part of the GOP base) only about a third of that—a
minority within a minority. These developments will put increased pressure on the
GOP to moderate its socially conservative stance. That stance may appeal
strongly to a key segment of their base, but that segment will shrink substantially
over time as religious diversity increases. A more moderate approach would have
some chance of appealing to this diversity rather than leaving the field wide open
for the Democrats.”
106

The final notable demographic shift is geographic, as the laggard economy has
delayed house purchases and marriages for young Americans. William Frey of the
Brookings Institute notes, although urbanization has slowed slightly in the past few years,

103
"America’s Changing Religious Landscape." Pew Research Centers Religion Public Life Project. May
11, 2015. Accessed January 5, 2016. http://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-
landscape/.
104
"America’s Changing Religious Landscape."
105
"America’s Changing Religious Landscape."
106
Ruy Teixiera. "Demographic Change and the Future of the Parties." Center for American Progress. June
1, 2010. Accessed January 5, 2016. https://www.americanprogressaction.org/wp-
content/uploads/issues/2010/06/pdf/voter_demographics.pdf.

41.
the appeal of city life has equally paced city growth with suburban growth, bucking a
trend that has persisted since the post-World War II years.
107
As large metro areas
continue to grow, the U.S. will add an extra 100 million people heavily concentrated in
metro areas by 2039, mainly driven by changing consumer preferences, more unmarried
and childless couples, and greater land use regulation and resource constraints.
108

Therefore, fewer low-density suburbs that are advantageous to the GOP are likely to be
built. This factor will enhance the political importance of urbanizing suburbs, which
should benefit Democrats at the moment. For example in 2012, President Obama won
Pennsylvania by five percentage points, thanks to 83 percent of the vote in Philadelphia
and Pittsburgh, where Democrats combined nearly unanimous support among nonwhite
voters with large margins among young and well-educated liberals.
109

Forbes compiled a list of the top 10 fastest growing cities for Millennials, with
nine of ten voting for Obama in 2012:
Figure 9: Top 10 Fastest Growing U.S. for Millennials by Percentage (2010-2013)
110

City Total Population Percentage Increase Vote in 2012
San Antonio, TX 1.4 million 9.2% Barack Obama
Riverside-San
Bernardino, CA
535,490 8.3% Barack Obama
Orlando, FL 255,480 8.1% Barack Obama
Miami, FL 417,650 7.7% Barack Obama
Detroit, MI 680,250 6.8% Barack Obama
Houston, TX 2.2 million 6.2% Barack Obama
Denver, CO 663,860 6.0% Barack Obama
Charlotte, NC 809,000 5.8% Barack Obama
Seattle, WA 812,000 5.7% Barack Obama
Virginia Beach, VA 448,480 5.6% Mitt Romney

107
William Frey. "Will This Be the Decade of Big City Growth?" The Brookings Institution. May 23, 2014.
Accessed December 28, 2015. http://www.brookings.edu/research/opinions/2014/05/23-decade-of-big-city-
growth-frey.
108
Frey, “Decade of Big City Growth?”
109
Nate Cohn. "Why Democrats Can’t Win the House." The New York Times. September 6, 2014. Accessed
December 16, 2015. http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/07/upshot/why-democrats-cant-win.html?_r=0.
110
Joel Kotkin. "Millennial Boomtowns: Where The Generation Is Clustering (It's Not Downtown)."
Forbes. August 4, 2014. Accessed January 12, 2016.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/joelkotkin/2014/08/04/millennial-boomtowns-where-the-generation-is-
clustering-its-not-downtown/#7943b40556b7.

42.

This doesn’t mean Millennials caused these cities to turn blue, but it does show
that Millennials, a generation that has mainly supported Obama, are flocking to cities
that are friendly to Democratic candidates. While they are largely Independent, and
their Democratic allegiance isn’t guaranteed to last, they tend to lean Democrat for
now, and this should be a short-term Electoral College advantage. It could also
potentially contribute to Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia shifting from
Republican bastions to swing states.
Figure 10: U.S. Population Distribution

In 2012, Obama took the coastal metros in New England, the Northeast, and
across much of the Eastern seaboard – from Portland, Maine and Boston to New York
City, Philadelphia, Baltimore and Washington, D.C.
111
He even congregated support as

111
Richard Florida. "What Is It Exactly That Makes Big Cities Vote Democratic?" City Lab. February 19,
2013. Accessed December 28, 2015. http://www.citylab.com/politics/2013/02/what-makes-some-cities-
vote-democratic/4598/.

43.
far south as Charlotte, Atlanta, Orlando, and Miami. On the West Coast, Obama won
Seattle, Portland, San Francisco, Los Angeles, and San Diego.
112
The President took
many of the bigger metros of the Great Lakes region as well — Chicago, Minneapolis-
St. Paul, Detroit, Cleveland, Buffalo, and Rochester.
113
He took 56 percent of the vote
in Las Vegas, 55 percent in Denver, and 54 percent in Albuquerque.
114
He also did well
in several Texas metros, winning more than three-quarters of the votes in heavily
Hispanic Laredo, 70 percent in McAllen, and more than two-thirds of El Paso and
Brownsville.
115

Eight out of the ten fastest growing cities by population in America between 2013
and 2014 voted Democrat in the 2012 election:
Figure 11: Top 10 Fastest Growing U.S. Cities by Population (2013-2014)
116

City Total Population Increase Vote in 2012
New York, NY 8.5 million +52,700 Barack Obama
Houston, TX* 2.2 million +35,700 Barack Obama
Los Angeles, CA 3.9 million +30,900 Barack Obama
Austin, TX 912,000 +25,600 Barack Obama
San Antonio, TX 1.4 million +24,900 Barack Obama
Phoenix, AZ 1.5 million +24,600 Mitt Romney
San Diego, CA 1.4 million +21,200 Barack Obama
Dallas, TX 1.3 million +20,300 Barack Obama
Fort Worth, TX 812,000 +18,100 Mitt Romney
Charlotte, NC 809,000 +16,000 Barack Obama
* Harris County, home of Houston, was won by 585 votes

The only majorly populated cities claimed by Romney in 2012 were Phoenix
(which was a narrow victory), Oklahoma City, Fort Worth, and Salt Lake City (which
carries a dominant Mormon population).
117
The next largest urban centers to tilt

112
Florida, “Big Cities Vote Democratic.”
113
Florida, “Big Cities Vote Democratic.”
114
Florida, “Big Cities Vote Democratic.”
115
Florida, “Big Cities Vote Democratic.”
116
Patrick Gillepsie. "Fastest Growing U.S. Cities: Texas Is King." CNNMoney. May 27, 2015. Accessed
December 28, 2015. http://money.cnn.com/2015/05/27/news/economy/us-fastest-growing-cities-texas/.
117
Josh Kron. "Red State, Blue City: How the Urban-Rural Divide Is Splitting America." The Atlantic.
November 30, 2012. Accessed December 28, 2015.

44.
Republican were mid-sized Wichita, Lincoln, and Boise.
118
The gap between blue metros
and red states is also emerging in traditional Republican monopolies. All of Texas’ major
cities – Austin, Dallas, Houston and San Antonio – voted Democratic in 2012, the second
consecutive Presidential election in which they’ve done so.
119
Atlanta, Indianapolis, New
Orleans, Birmingham, Tuscon, Little Rock, and Charleston are all former red-cities that
turned blue in the latest Presidential election.
120
Because winning a state’s electoral votes
only requires a simple majority, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Denver, and major cities in
Florida, Nevada, and Ohio helped Obama claim swing states.
121
In a state like Nevada,
Reno and Las Vegas were the only blue districts, but were large enough to cede its
Electoral votes to Obama, while Michigan was virtually carried by the Detroit
metropolitan area and a scrap of Flint.
122

Figure 12: Size of Metro and Presidential Vote (2012)
123

Metro Population Size Barack Obama Mitt Romney
1,000,000 and over 53.4% 45.0%
500,000 – 1,000,000 48.6% 49.7%
250,000 – 500,000 47.6% 50.7%
Fewer than 250,000 42.6% 55.6%

Overall, Romney claimed 214 metros compared to Obama’s 150:

Obama won
the biggest, taking more than 60 percent of the vote in New York, L.A., and
Chicago.
124
The average Obama metro is home to more than one million people, more
than double the size (413,000 people) of the average Romney metro.
125

http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2012/11/red-state-blue-city-how-the-urban-rural-divide-is-
splitting-america/265686/.
118
Kron, “Red State, Blue City.”
119
Kron, “Red State, Blue City.”
120
Kron, “Red State, Blue City.”
121
Kron, “Red State, Blue City.”
122
Kron, “Red State, Blue City.”
123
Florida, “Big Cities Vote Democratic.”
124
Florida, “Big Cities Vote Democratic.”
125
Florida, “Big Cities Vote Democratic.”

45.
Back in 1968, when Kevin Phillips was formulating the “Southern strategy”
that secured Nixon the White House, he was willing to dispense big city votes in
exchange for Dixieland domination: “Who needs Manhattan when we can get the
electoral votes of eleven Southern states? Put those together with the Farm Belt and
the Rocky Mountains, and we don’t need the big cities. We don’t even want them.”
126

With more cities urbanizing, with seven of the fastest 10 growing cities located in the
South, focusing on heartland America and rural counties may help Republicans gain
Congressional seats, but will continue to be an ineffective strategy moving forward,
aiding the Democratic Party’s Presidential prospects.
This is significant because Martin Prosperity Institute researcher Charlotta
Mellander explored correlations between city density and voting preferences. She
found larger, more populated cities tended to vote blue due to overall higher levels of
education, more clusters of scientists and technological innovation, creativity, and
diversity:
“Basic correlations between the share of metro votes for Obama and Romney
and metro characteristics like education, income, occupation and socio-
economic class, population density, and commuting patterns. … The
concentration and clustering of people is a key factor in innovation and
economic growth; it also seems to turn metros blue. … America is divided
between cities of knowledge and skill and the rest. The residents of these
knowledge cities not only do better economically, they are better-traveled,
better-connected to the global economy, and more open to diversity. Perhaps
because the work of the knowledge-based metros centers turns on knowledge,
creativity, and abstract thinking, their residents tend to be more open to the
notion that government can help improve the economy, better the environment,
provide essential services (like healthcare), and protect the fundamental rights
of disadvantaged or discriminated-against groups.”
127

126
Sam Tanenhaus. "Original Sin." New Republic. February 10, 2013. Accessed December 28, 2015.
https://newrepublic.com/article/112365/why-republicans-are-party-white-people.
127
Florida, “Big Cities Vote Democratic.”

46.
Of course, these relationships are correlational and not causational, but it’s worth
noting that large urban areas foster cosmopolitanism, and diversity usually sits well with
liberalism – giving the Democrats a boost in Electoral College votes.
NPR reports 2020 will be the first Presidential election that all Millennials will be
eligible to vote. Millennials are the largest generation, the most diverse, most educated
and are urbanizing at high rates.
128
They provided a major boost to Obama’s 2008 and
2012 campaign. Although largely Independent, Americans aged 18-34 also side with
more progressive stances on America’s most pressing political and cultural issues. This
generation will be 103 million strong, of which about 90 million will be eligible voters –
representing just under 40 percent of America’s eligible voters.
129

America’s burgeoning diversity is also an intergenerational trend. Since 2000, the
population of the United States has grown by slightly over 40 million people. Business
Wire reports 35 million, or 90 percent, of that growth is from minorities – Hispanics,
Asian Americans and African Americans.
130
White, non-Hispanic children will no longer
make up the majority of America’s youth in just five to six years, according to Census
Bureau projections.
131
By around 2020, “more than half of the nation’s children are
expected to be part of a minority race or ethnic group, putting Americans under the age of

128
Linton Weeks. "Forget 2016. The Pivotal Year In Politics May Be 2020." NPR. January 25, 2013.
Accessed December 28, 2015. http://www.npr.org/2013/01/25/170240786/forget-2016-the-pivotal-year-in-
politics-may-be-2020.
129
Weeks, “Forget 2016.”
130
Study: Majority of U.S. Population Growth Is from “Minorities”." Business Wire. 2015. Accessed
March 16, 2016. http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20150317006380/en/Study-Majority-U.S.-
Population-Growth-“Minorities”.
131
"New Census Bureau Report Analyzes U.S. Population Projections." New Census Bureau Report
Analyzes U.S. Population Projections. March 3, 2015. Accessed December 28, 2015.
https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2015/cb15-tps16.html.

47.
18 at the front of a trend that will see the overall population follow suit some 20 years
later.”
132

Not only is the Millennial generation the most racially diverse, but also it is the
largest in American history. There are 76 million Baby Boomers, and 72 percent of them
are white. The Millennials are an even larger group with 87 million, but much more
diverse — only 56 percent are white.
133
More than one-in-three American workers today
are Millennials – they surpassed Generation X in 2015 to become the largest share of the
American workforce – and by 2020, they will compose half of the active workforce.
134

This trend doesn’t stop with Millennials. The U.S. Census describes the emerging
“majority-minority”:
“Even more diverse than Millennials are the youngest Americans: those younger
than 5 years old. In 2014, this group became majority-minority for the first time,
with 50.2 percent being part of a minority race or ethnic group. Reflecting these
younger age groups, the population as a whole has become more racially and
ethnically diverse in just the last decade, with the percentage minority climbing
from 32.9 percent in 2004 to 37.9 percent in 2014.

Five states or equivalents were majority-minority: Hawaii (77.0 percent), the
District of Columbia (64.2 percent), California (61.5 percent), New Mexico (61.1
percent) and Texas (56.5 percent). Among the remaining states, Nevada is the
closest to crossing this threshold, with a population 48.5 percent minority. More
than 11 percent (364) of the nation’s 3,142 counties were majority-minority in
2014. Five reached this milestone during the year beginning July 1, 2013: Russell,
Ala.; Newton, Ga.; Eddy, N.M.; Brazoria, Texas; and Suffolk city, Va.”
135

The minority population is projected to rise to 56 percent of the total in 2060,
compared with 38 percent in 2014. By 2060, the nation’s foreign-born population will

132
Weeks, “Forget 2016.”
133
Patrick Oakford. "The Changing Face of America's Electorate." Center for American Progress, January
11, 2015. Accessed December 15, 2015.
https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/immigration/report/2015/01/06/101605/the-changing-face-of-
americas-electorate/.
134
Oakford. “The Changing Face.”
135
“New Census Bureau Report.”

48.
reach nearly 19 percent of the total population, up from 13 percent in 2014.
136
The “two
or more races” population is projected to be the fastest growing over the next 46 years.
137

Births within the Hispanic community drive 78 per cent of population growth in the
U.S.
138

All things considered, demography doesn’t necessarily guarantee a White House
victory for the Democrats – 2016 is shaping up to be a heated contest. These trends also
don’t assure each of these groups will stay loyal to the Democratic Party over time.
Additionally, Republicans enjoy the senior citizen vote as Baby Boomers graduate into
retirement and are beginning to make inroads again with college-educated white males.
The Democratic Party should be cautious in resting on these laurels – they won’t have the
first black President’s coattails to ride for future elections. However, they have done an
excellent job of courting and cultivating positive relationships with these cohorts. Given
the Democratic Party’s embracing of diversity and more progressive platforms, they are
on the right side of this rising tide of ethnic plurality and head into the 2016 and 2020
Presidential Elections with a demographic advantage over their more homogeneously
Caucasian Republican counterparts.

2. THE AMERICAN CULTURE WAR SEEMS TO BE TILTING LEFT NATIONALLY
WITH MILLENNIALS LEADING THE CHARGE*
A string of police shootings and protests has seemingly transfixed America, and
reintroduced policy brutality and race relations to national prominence. In July 2014, a

* This section is based on and elaborated from the Atlantic article “America Is Moving Left,” by Peter
Breinart.
136
Weeks, “Forget 2016.”
137
“New Census Bureau Report.”
138
Oakford. “The Changing Face.”

49.
New York City policeman was caught on a smartphone camera chocking Eric Garner to
death for illegally selling loose cigarettes.
139
Several months later, a white police officer
named Darren Wilson, shot and killed Michael Brown, a black teenager, in Ferguson,
Missouri.
140
During the ensuing two weeks, protestors battled police who were clad in
military gear, as the city was immolated and destroyed – Missouri’s governor even
described the scene as a “war zone.”
141
That December, an African American with a
criminal record murdering two NYPD officers in “revenge” for Garner’s death.
142
In
April 2015, another African American man, Freddie Gray, died in police custody in
Baltimore, sparking chaos that resulted in the destruction of 200 businesses, 113 injured
police officers, and 486 arrests.
143
Black Lives Matter emerged as a national movement to
advocate for reforms in policing and criminal justice in response to this series of police
abuse; they even interrupted Martin O’Malley’s and Bernie Sanders’s rallies two months
after the Freddie Gray tragedy to voice their concerns.
144

After the assassination of Marin Luther King Jr., Baltimore burned, as many cities
did amid the racial violence and strife that arose every summer between 1964 and 1969.
Richard Nixon uttered the phrase, “silent majority” from the Oval Office in November

139
Gene Demby. "What We See In The Eric Garner Video, And What We Don't." NPR. August 19, 2014.
Accessed January 12, 2016. http://www.npr.org/sections/codeswitch/2014/07/29/335847224/what-we-see-
in-the-eric-garner-video-and-what-we-dont.
140
"Q&A: What Happened in Ferguson?" The New York Times. August 10, 2015. Accessed January 12,
2016. http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014/08/13/us/ferguson-missouri-town-under-siege-after-police-
shooting.html?_r=0.
141
"Ferguson Unrest: From Shooting to Nationwide Protests." BBC News. August 10, 2015. Accessed
March 19, 2016. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-30193354.
142
Larry Celona, Shawn Cohen, Jamie Schram, Amber Jamieson, and Laura Italiano. "Gunman Executes 2
NYPD Cops in Garner ‘revenge’." New York Post. December 20, 2014. Accessed January 12, 2016.
http://nypost.com/2014/12/20/2-nypd-cops-shot-execution-style-in-brooklyn/.
143
"Timeline: Freddie Gray's Arrest, Death and the Aftermath." Baltimore Sun. 2015. Accessed January 12,
2016. http://data.baltimoresun.com/news/freddie-gray/.
144
Carimah Townes. "How The Democratic Presidential Candidates Responded To The Black Lives Matter
Question." ThinkProgress. October 14, 2015. Accessed January 12, 2016.
http://thinkprogress.org/justice/2015/10/14/3712146/black-lives-matter-debate/.

50.
1969, which eventually became the demonym for white Americans shaken by crime and
appalled by the radical protests.
145
Considering their swift, mass departure from the
Democratic Party during the ‘60s and ‘70s, historical precedent and parallel would
suggests a seismic, foreboding conservative backlash is imminent and inevitable.
146
As
the resemblances are similar (the liberalism of the Obama era has received recoil) the
political significance has been flipped on its head – the conservative movement is now
louder than it is strong, at least nationally, while the country is tilting left.
147

Millennials and social media are the biggest boons of this political, cultural and
demographic shift. Political scientist Leonard Steinhorn observed this trend in 2004
during the aftermath of George W. Bush’s re-election. He describes the “new silent
majority” in his Salon article, “Scrooge’s Nightmare”:
“Social conservatives no more represent the mainstream or the future than
Prohibitionists did in the 1920s. If anything, it’s the baby-boom sensibility
spawned in the 1960s that has become mainstream in America today. … How
little the “moral values” voter represents the future is evident in surveys of
today’s youth, who may be the most inclusive, tolerant and socially liberal
generation in our nation’s history. … Indeed, today’s youth reject many of the
social rigidities, prejudices and orthodoxies of old. …

On race, homosexuality, premarital sex, gender roles, the environment and issues
involving personal choice and freedom, younger Americans consistently fall on
the liberal and more tolerant side of the spectrum. … They simply accept that
people are different and have a right to make their own choices and lead their own
lives, and that the moral imperative is not to condemn those who are different but
to include and support them. Diversity is not just a slogan — it’s a moral value for
these generations. … These Americans condemn bigotry, intolerance and
discrimination. They reject constraints on personal freedom and don’t like it when
women are not treated as equals. They find pollution objectionable and see
nothing moral in imposing religious beliefs on others. They believe a moral
upbringing is teaching kids to think for themselves, not to follow another’s rules.

145
Peter Beinart. "Why America Is Moving Left." The Atlantic. January 2016. Accessed January 3, 2016.
http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2016/01/why-america-is-moving-left/419112/.
146
Beinart, “Why America Is Moving Left.”
147
Beinart, “Why America Is Moving Left.”

51.
What they embrace are pluralism, privacy, freedom of choice, diversity and
respect for people with different traditions.”
148

The Presidency of George W. Bush played an important role in America’s
leftward shift. Before Bush, the Democrats were dominated by a strong centrist wing,
anchored by white Southerners including, Tennessee Senator Al Gore, who had
supported much of Reagan’s defense buildup, and Georgia Senator Sam Nunn, who had
stymied Bill Clinton’s push for LGBT individuals in the military.
149
The Democratic
Leadership Council (DLC) (who opposed raising the minimum wage), the New Republic
(which attacked affirmative action and Roe v. Wade), and the Washington Monthly
(which proposed means-testing Social Security) provided intellectual shepherding for the
centrist Democrats.
150
They aligned themselves with Reagan on the Cold War, lowering
taxes, reducing excessive regulation, and being tough on crime. In response to the
“Reagan Revolution,” the DLC, headed by Bill Clinton, took an “if you can’t beat ‘em,
join ‘em” attitude and steered the Democrats in a more corporate-friendly, centrist
direction to adapt to a new political playing field. The centrists believed the party should
abandon the liberalism that characterized the party since FDR in order to seize the
Presidency that eluded them since the late ‘70s.
However, Bush eradicated this community by firmly entrenching the Republican
base in the south (while Reagan’s was in the west), which destroyed Southern
Democrats.
151
His catastrophic administration also destroyed the centrist Democrat’s
ideological credibility. In the Senate, Bush’s 2001 tax cut passed with 12 Democratic

148
Leonard Steinhorn, "Scrooge’s Nightmare." Salon. November 25, 2004. Accessed December 9, 2015.
http://www.salon.com/2004/11/25/new_silent_majority/.
149
Beinart, “Why America Is Moving Left.”
150
Beinart, “Why America Is Moving Left.”
151
Beinart, “Why America Is Moving Left.”

52.
votes and the Iraq War was authorized with 29.
152
The Democrats were also complicit
with the Bush-era tax cuts and policies that further weakened regulations, exasperated
income inequality, increased the deficit, and crashed the financial industry.
153
Peter
Beinart, in his Atlantic article “Why America is Moving Left,” observed the calamitous
consequences of these votes, which led to an electoral blowback that’s beginning to
diminish the Democratic Party’s centrist wing:
“Bush destroyed centrist Democrats intellectually, by making it impossible for
them to credibly critique liberalism from the right. That doesn’t mean the
Republicans won’t retain strength in the nation’s statehouses and in Congress. It
doesn’t mean a Republican won’t sooner or later claim the White House. It means
that on domestic policy—foreign policy is following a different trajectory, as it
often does—the terms of the national debate will continue tilting to the left.”
154

During his campaign, Vermont governor Howard Dean asked, “What I want to
know is why in the world the Democratic Party leadership is supporting the president’s
unilateral attack on Iraq? What I want to know is, why are Democratic Party leaders
supporting tax cuts?”
155
Although his Presidential prospects quickly dissipated, it sparked
an intellectual revolution within the party, and a growing opposition to neo-conservatism.
Since his insurgency, Daily Kos was created as a group blog dedicated to giving
liberalism a backbone, and MoveOn, an 8-million member progressive activist group,
was energized. Paul Krugman emerged as America’s most influential liberal columnist,
Keith Olbermann joined MSNBC to become a notable liberal pundit, and Jon Stewart and
Stephen Colbert became liberal and Millennial satirical icons noted for skewering
mainstream media and the Bush Administration. Huffington Post was born as a liberal

152
Rick Perlstein. "How Republicans Cheat Democrats - and Democrats Cheat Themselves." Rolling Stone.
June 12, 2012. Accessed January 12, 2016. http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/how-republicans-
cheat-democrats-and-democrats-cheat-themselves-20120612.
153
Perlstein, “How Republicans Cheat Democrats.”
154
Beinart, “Why America Is Moving Left.”
155
Beinart, “Why America Is Moving Left.”

53.
alternative to the Drudge Report. In 2006, Joe Lieberman, the Democratic Party’s most
outspoken hawk, lost his Democratic Senate primary and became an Independent.
156
In
2011, the DLC faded into irrelevancy and ceased to exist.
157
However, the most defining
moment of liberalism’s increasing presence within the Democratic Party, and the national
discourse, was Barack Obama’s victory over Hillary Clinton in the primary and John
McCain in the Presidential election in 2008.
The Obama Administration inadvertently contributed to the Occupy Wall Street
and Back Lives Matter movements, both based around the shared premise that the
liberalism he espouses isn’t sufficiently liberal.
Frustrated with the lack of accountability and the bailouts Wall Street received
after recklessly crashing America’s economy, young activists wary of the widespread
suffering of working-class Americans and disillusioned with Obama took to the streets of
cities across the nation to protest.
158
While the movement briefly captured national
attention, it quickly fizzled out. Even though it was expeditiously extinguished, it injected
economic inequality into the national political discussion.
159
The same frustration fuelled
Bill de Blasio’s election and Elizabeth Warren’s rise to national prominence and may
also explain why a crusty, self-described “socialist” is giving Hillary Clinton a run for her
money in 2016.
160
Furthermore, the 2016 primary features a more left-of-center Clinton
candidacy; she has called for tougher regulation of the financial industry, raising Social

156
"Lieberman Opens up about Becoming an Independent." CNN Political Ticker. April 26, 2010.
Accessed January 12, 2016. http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2010/04/26/lieberman-opens-up-about-
becoming-an-independent/.
157
Smith, Ben. "The End of the DLC Era." POLITICO. February 7, 2011. Accessed January 12, 2016.
http://www.politico.com/story/2011/02/the-end-of-the-dlc-era-049041.
158
Michael Levitin, "The Triumph of Occupy Wall Street." The Atlantic. June 10, 2015. Accessed January
12, 2016. http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2015/06/the-triumph-of-occupy-wall-street/395408/.
159
Levitin, “The Triumph of Occupy Wall Street.”
160
Levitin, “The Triumph of Occupy Wall Street.”

54.
Security taxes on the wealthy (something she opposed in 2008), and criticized the Trans-
Pacific Partnership (a trade agreement she once called “the gold standard” of free
trade).
161

The same dynamic is underway with the Black Lives Matter movement. After
encountering activists along their campaigns each 2016 Presidential candidate have
adapted their platforms accordingly. Soon after O’Malley responded by unveiling an
ambitious plan to reduce police brutality and incarceration rates, as well as a
constitutional amendment protecting the right to vote.
162
Sanders hired an African
American press secretary sympathetic to Black Lives Matter, added a “racial justice”
section to his Web site, joined members of the Congressional Black Caucus in
introducing legislation to ban private prisons, and began publicly citing the names of
African Americans killed by police.
163
Hillary Clinton, having already vowed to “end the
era of mass incarceration,” has met with Black Lives Matter activists twice.
164
The
Democratic National Committee (DNC) passed a resolution supporting Black Lives
Matter.
In the 1960s, African American riots and the Black Power movement sparked a
furious white backlash. In April 1965, Thomas and Mary Edsall note in their
book, “Chain Reaction: The Impact of Race, Rights, and Taxes on American Politics,” 28

161
Beinart, “Why America Is Moving Left.”
162
Jamil Smith. "The Right Message, the Wrong Messenger." New Republic. August 6, 2015. Accessed
January 12, 2016. https://newrepublic.com/article/122475/martin-omalley-making-structural-racism-
platform-issue.
163
Alice Ollstein. "Bernie Sanders’ New Racial Justice Platform Wins Praise From Black Lives Matter
Activists." ThinkProgress. August 10, 2015. Accessed January 12, 2016.
http://thinkprogress.org/politics/2015/08/10/3689728/after-repeated-protests-bernie-sanders-releases-racial-
justice-platform/.
164
Jake Miller, “Hillary Clinton: Time to ‘End the Era of Mass Incarceration’” CBS News. April 29, 2015.
Accessed January 12, 2016. http://www.cbsnews.com/news/hillary-clinton-baltimore-riots-to-end-the-era-
of-mass-incarceration/.

55.
percent of non-southern whites thought President Lyndon B. Johnson was pushing civil
rights “too fast.”
165
By September 1966, after riots in Los Angeles, Chicago, and
Cleveland, and the Student Nonviolent Coordinating Committee’s turn from racial
integration toward Black Power, that figure had reached 52 percent.
166

However, contemporary political winds are blowing national opinions in the
opposition direction. In July 2015, after the riots in Ferguson and Baltimore and the rise
of Black Lives Matter, 59 percent of Americans agreed with the statement, “Our country
needs to continue making changes to give blacks equal rights with whites” – a rise from
46 percent the previous year.
167
From the summer of 2013 to the summer of 2015,
according to Gallup, the percentage of Americans who declared themselves “satisfied
with the way blacks are treated in U.S. society” dropped from 62 percent to 49 percent.
168

In 2015, public confidence in the police hit a 22-year low.
169

Figure 13: Percent of Americans Satisfied With How Blacks are Treated in Society
170

165
Thomas Byrne Edsall, and Mary D. Edsall, “Chain Reaction: The Impact of Race, Rights, and Taxes on
American Politics,” (New York: Norton, 1991): 59.
166
Edsall and Edsall, “Chain Reaction,” 59.
167
"Across Racial Lines, More Say Nation Needs to Make Changes to Achieve Racial Equality." Pew
Research Center for the People and the Press. August 05, 2015. Accessed January 12, 2016.
http://www.people-press.org/2015/08/05/across-racial-lines-more-say-nation-needs-to-make-changes-to-
achieve-racial-equality/.
168
Jeffrey M. Jones, "Americans' Satisfaction With Way Blacks Treated Tumbles." Gallup. August 4, 2015.
Accessed January 12, 2016. http://www.gallup.com/poll/184466/americans-satisfaction-blacks-treated-
tumbles.aspx.
169
Beinart, “Why America Is Moving Left.”
170
Jones, “Americans’ Satisfaction With Way.”

56.

Figure 14: Majority Says the Nation Needs to Make Changes to Give
Blacks Equal Rights (Pew Research August 2015)
171

Unlike national backlash in the late-60s, much of this shift is being driven by a
changing mood among whites. According to a May 2015 YouGov poll, the percentage of
whites who called deaths like those of Michael Brown and Freddie Gray “isolated
incident[s]” dropped 20 points between January and April 2015.
172
The same poll also
reported a changing sentiment among Republican voters. From 2014 to 2015, the
percentage of Republicans saying America needs to make changes to give blacks an
equal chance rose 15 points—more than the percentage increase among Democrats or
Independents.
173
That’s not to say Ferguson, Baltimore, and Black Lives Matter have
haven’t sparked any backlash. Donald Trump has called “the way they [Black Lives

171
“Across Racial Lines”
172
Moore, Peter. "More Whites See 'broader Pattern' of Police Abuse following Freddie Gray's Death."
YouGov: What the World Thinks. May 1, 2015. Accessed January 12, 2016.
https://today.yougov.com/news/2015/05/01/baltimore/.
173
Moore, “More Whites See.”

57.
Matter] are being catered to by the Democrats” a “disgrace.”
174
Meanwhile, Fox News
straw-mans the movement as an excuse to kill cops and downplays police brutality.
175

A decade ago, when Christianity and the classic definition of a nuclear family
heavily dominated “traditional family values,” supporting marriage equality was
considered political suicide for a Democrat. A tectonic shift in public opinion on
marriage equality has mainly settled that issue, and attention is now beginning to move
toward transgendered issues, a group largely unnoticed before Caitlyn Jenner, and
workplace discrimination laws targeted at LGBT people.
176
When the Williams Institute
at the UCLA School of Law examined polls conducted on popular opinion of LGBT
rights over the past four decades, it found between two-thirds and three-quarters of
Americans now support barring discrimination against transgender people.
177
The study
also discerned a dramatic rise in recent years in the percentage of Americans who
consider anti-transgender discrimination a “major problem.”
178
The Republican
candidates have largely avoided this topic the 2016 presidential race, aside from those
trying to appease the Evangelical base, like Mike Huckabee.
179

President Obama has intervened more extensively in the economy than any other
president in nearly half a century, and American public opinion still remains pro-

174
Campbell, Colin. "Donald Trump Trashes Black Lives Matter: 'I Think They're Trouble'" Business
Insider. September 09, 2015. Accessed January 12, 2016. http://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-
black-lives-matter-2015-9.
175
Tyler Cherry, "How Fox News' Primetime Lineup Demonized Black Lives Matter In 2015." Media
Matters for America. December 29, 2015. Accessed January 12, 2016.
http://mediamatters.org/blog/2015/12/29/how-fox-news-primetime-lineup-demonized-black-l/207637.
176
Wagmeister, Elizabeth. "Caitlyn Jenner Talks Trans Issues, Politics, Media Criticism: ‘I Am Not a
Spokesman for This Community’." Variety. January 14, 2016. Accessed March 19, 2016.
http://variety.com/2016/tv/news/caitlyn-jenner-i-am-cait-season-2-politics-republican-1201680517/.
177
Andrew R. Flores, “National Trends in Public Opinion on LGBT Rights in the United States,” UCLA
Williams Institute (2014): 5.
178
Flores, “National Trends LGBT Rights,” 5.
179
Sam Levine. "Mike Huckabee Belittled Transgender People In February Speech." The Huffington Post.
June 2, 2015. Accessed January 12, 2016. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/06/02/mike-huckabee-lgbt-
bathrooms_n_7494514.html.

58.
environment, anti-Wall Street, and is beginning to warm up to government-provided
health care. Obama pushed the Affordable Care Act, Dodd-Frank, and the American
Recovery and Reinvestment Act through Congress.
180

“He spent roughly $20 billion bailing out the auto industry, increased fuel-
efficiency standards for cars and trucks, toughened emissions standards for coal-
fired power plants, authorized the Environmental Protection Agency to regulate
the production of carbon dioxide, expanded the Food and Drug Administration’s
ability to regulate the sale of tobacco products, doubled the amount of fruits and
vegetables required in school lunches, designated 2 million acres as wilderness,
and protected more than 1,000 miles of rivers.”
181

This intervention has sparked an angry response on the Republican right, but not
among Americans as a whole. Many polls reveal a common sentiment shared among
Americans is their desire for smaller government while supporting specific government
programs. When Bill Clinton took office in 1993, Americans said they favored “a smaller
government providing fewer services” over “a bigger government providing more
services” by 37 percentage points.
182
When Obama took power in 2009, the margin was a
mere eight points, and the margin remained the same when Pew asked the same question
in September 2014, despite the president’s many economic interventions.
183

Despite the boisterous opposition coming from Fox News, the GOP, and the far
right, public opinion hasn’t soured on health care reform. When Obama signed the
Affordable Care Act in March 2010, most polls showed Americans opposing it by about
eight to 10 points – in 2015 that gap remained the same.
184
Little has changed on taxes,
either, even though Obama allowed some of the tax cuts passed under George W. Bush to
expire. The percentage of Americans who say they pay more than their fair share in taxes

180
Beinart, “Why America Is Moving Left.”
181
Beinart, “Why America Is Moving Left.”
182
Beinart, “Why America Is Moving Left.”
183
Beinart, “Why America Is Moving Left.”
184
Beinart, “Why America Is Moving Left.”

59.
is about the same as it was in the spring of 2010 (Pew does not have data for 2009), and
lower than it was during the Clinton years.
185

Despite the eminence of social liberalism in many areas, Americans have also
grown more conservative in some issues. Republicans also enjoy a renewed advantage on
combatting international terrorism, an issue whose salience has grown with the rise of the
Islamic State.
186

During an era in which the federal government has become more intrusive in the
economy, African-American activists have grown louder and more confrontational, and
long-standing assumptions of gender roles and identity, sexuality, and familial structure
have been shattered, the majority of Americans are becoming more tolerant and accepting
of this increase in individuality, or at the very least are acquiescing to this inevitable
trend, rather than fiercely opposing it, like they did in the mid-1960s. The biggest reason:
Millennials are leading the surge in progressive values.
An SDSU study reports Americans are more tolerant with every generation: The
biggest generational shift in tolerance occurred between Baby Boomers and their Silent
Generation parents, but subsequent generations — Generation X and Millennials — have
continued the upward trend in acceptance of opinions and lifestyles different from their
own.
187
Considering the Millennial generation is the most racially diverse in American
history, an uptick in acceptance seems fitting. Subsequent generations are expected to
continue this pattern, given the ongoing diversification in demographics.

185
Beinart, “Why America Is Moving Left.”
186
Newport, Frank. "Gallup Review: U.S. Public Opinion on Terrorism." Gallup. November 17, 2015.
Accessed January 12, 2016. http://www.gallup.com/opinion/polling-matters/186665/gallup-review-public-
opinion-terrorism.aspx.
187
Beth Downing Chee. "A More Tolerant America." News Center SDSU. March 16, 2015. Accessed
December 15, 2015. http://newscenter.sdsu.edu/sdsu_newscenter/news_story.aspx?sid=75486.

60.
“The Next America,” a book published by Pew Research in 2014, tracks the
variance of demographic, behavioristic, and psychological behaviors and attitudes from
the Silent to the Millennial generation and found the most stark differences in cultural
and demographic changes in this country lie with the newest voting eligible cohort. Such
differences include:
188

• 47 percent of 2012 births to Millennial mothers were non-marital.
• 50 percent say more interracial marriage is good for society.
• 26 percent are married.
• 29 percent are not affiliated with any religion, 64 percent don’t consider
themselves religious.
• Half do not identify with a political party, and just three-in-ten think there is much
difference between the political parties.
• Half of Independents identify with or lean Democratic, while 34 percent lean
Republican.
• 71 percent say young people face greater economic challenges than their parents,
yet more than 80 percent believe they will earn enough money to live the lives
they want.
• 55 percent are optimistic about the future, saying country’s better days are ahead.

A Pew survey on the public’s confidence in the police conducted in August 2014
revealed Americans under 30 were twice as likely than Americans 65 and older to say the
police do a “poor” job of “treating racial, ethnic groups equally” and more than twice as
likely to say the grand jury should’ve charged Darren Wilson for Michael Brown’s
death.
189
According to YouGov, more than one in three Americans 65 and older think
being transgender is morally wrong compared to less than a one-in-five ratio among
Americans under 30.
190
Millennials are 21 percentage points less likely than those 65 and
older to say that immigrants “burden” the United States and 25 points more likely to say

188
Paul Taylor, “The Next America: Boomers, Millennials, and the Looming Generational Showdown.”
Washington D.C.: Public Affairs, 2014. Kindle.
189
"Few Say Police Forces Nationally Do Well in Treating Races Equally." Pew Research Center for the
People and the Press. August 25, 2014. Accessed January 12, 2016. http://www.people-
press.org/2014/08/25/few-say-police-forces-nationally-do-well-in-treating-races-equally/.
190
Moore, Peter. "One Third Think It Is Morally Wrong to Be Transgender." YouGov: What the World
Thinks. June 5, 2015. Accessed January 12, 2016. https://today.yougov.com/news/2015/06/05/transgender/.

61.
they “strengthen” the country.
191
Millennials are also 17 points more likely to have a
favorable view of Muslims.
192
Since Gallup started asking whether government should
“promote traditional values” in 1993, that number is the lowest its ever been.
193
The
percentage of Americans calling themselves “socially liberal” now equals the percentage
calling themselves “socially conservative” for the first time since Gallup began asking
that question in 1999.
194

Figure 15: Should the Government Promote Traditional Values? (Gallup September 2015)
195

Even though the Millennials have unfavorable opinions of large institutions,
especially the government, they still want the government to be more active and do more
to help everyday Americans. A July 2015 Wall Street Journal/ABC poll shows
Americans over 35 were four points more likely to say the government is doing too much
than to say it is doing too little while Millennials, by a margin of 23 points, think it’s
doing too little.
196
In 2011, Pew found that while the oldest Americans supported
repealing health-care reform by 29 percentage points, Millennials favored expanding it by

191
Beinart, “Why America Is Moving Left.”
192
Beinart, “Why America Is Moving Left.”
193
Jones, Jeffrey M. "Fewer in U.S. Want Government to Promote Traditional Values." Gallup. September
30, 2015. Accessed January 12, 2016. http://www.gallup.com/poll/185948/fewer-government-promote-
traditional-values.aspx.
194
Jones, Jeffrey M. "On Social Ideology, the Left Catches Up to the Right." Gallup. May 22, 2015.
Accessed January 12, 2016. http://www.gallup.com/poll/183386/social-ideology-left-catches-right.aspx.
195
Jones, “Fewer in U.S. Want Government.”
196
Beinart, “Why America Is Moving Left.”

62.
17 points.
197
As the Pew report, “The Generation Gap and the 2012 Election,” said,
“Millennials, at least so far, hold ‘baked in’ support for a more activist government.”
198

The plethora of ethnic diversity is a major catalyst of this generation’s deviation
of traditional social norms in America. Non-white Millennials tend to hold more liberal
views than their white counterparts: More than 7-in-10 (71 percent) of non-white
Millennials (including Latinos) favor a “bigger” government, while only 21 percent say
they want smaller government.
199
Among white Millennials, only 39 percent favor bigger
government; 68 percent of non-white Millennials believe government should provide
healthcare for all, compared to 44 percent of white Millennials; 67 percent of non-white
Millennials give President Barack Obama high marks, compared to 34 percent of white
Millennials.
200

This even holds true among Republican Millennials. Sensationalist mainstream
media portrays American politics as a bloodthirsty cage match between increasingly
polarized liberals and conservatives, but the youngest crop of voters seems to be bucking
this trend. Both young Democrats and young Republicans appear to be more liberal than
their elders. According to Pew, a clear majority of young Republicans say immigrants
strengthen America, half say corporate profits are too high, and almost half say stricter
environmental laws are worth the cost.
201
Young Republicans are more likely to favor
legalizing marijuana than the oldest Democrats, and almost as likely to support gay

197
Beinart, “Why America Is Moving Left.”
198
"The Generation Gap and the 2012 Election." Pew Research Center for the People and the Press.
November 03, 2011. Accessed January 12, 2016. http://www.people-press.org/2011/11/03/the-generation-
gap-and-the-2012-election-3/.
199
Sandra Lilley, "Millennials: Most Racially Diverse Generation in U.S. History." NBC News. March 7,
2014. Accessed January 12, 2016. http://www.nbcnews.com/news/latino/millennials-most-racially-diverse-
generation-u-s-history-n46361.
200
Taylor, “The Next America,” Kindle.
201
Beinart, “Why America Is Moving Left.”

63.
marriage.
202
Asked how they categorize themselves ideologically, more than two-thirds of
Republican Millennials call themselves either “liberal” or “mixed,” while fewer than one-
third call themselves “conservative.”
203
Among the oldest Republicans, that breakdown is
almost exactly reversed.
The Young Turks interviewed Colonel Lawrence Wilkerson, who served in the
first term of the George W. Bush Administration as the Chief of Staff for Secretary of
State Colin Powell, who describes the changing political atmosphere, driven by young
Americans:
“Today is a different time. Boy, do I know it from these young people. These
young people are totally different. They do not want to own an automobile. They
don’t want to commute. They don’t want an insurance policy. They want to live in
a bicycle-able, walk-able community. They want to take the light rail when they
have to go more than four or five miles – high-speed rail when they have to travel.
There’s a 170 million of them out there. They want a different life, and I’m sorry
you old farts in the south and elsewhere – in Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Ohio too
– you’re going to have to adjust because the world is changing, and America is
changing with it.”
204

The 2016 Primary has also shown Bernie Sanders receiving the largest amount of
votes from Americans 18-30 (as of mid-March 2015), more than John Kasich, Donald
Trump, and Hillary Clinton combined. Whether Millennials remain this liberal over time
remains to be seen, but their overwhelming support for the most liberal Senator in
Congress, and perhaps the most liberal Presidential candidate with a viable chance of
winning since LBJ, shows the country could be heading in a more progressive direction.

202
Beinart, “Why America Is Moving Left.”
203
Beinart, “Why America Is Moving Left.”
204
“Bush Official Would Vote for Bernie Sanders Before Donald Trump.” YouTube. March 25, 2016.
Accessed March 30, 2016. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3nFnggBHFUo.

64.
Figure 16: Estimated Total of Youth Votes in 2016 in Presidential Primaries and Caucuses, By
Candidate
205

Cenk Uygur, host of The Young Turks, explains why Millennials have largely
flocked to Bernie Sanders and his progressive policies:
“This is a generation that grew up in a time when entertainment and media is based
on authenticity and not the fakeness of television. Like Diogenes, when
Millennials went on their pursuit to find the one honest man in politics, it was
obvious that man was Bernie Sanders.

The older generation grew up on blow-dried anchors, plastic politicians, and an
ocean of pretense. Realness seems unvarnished and unpolished to them. Bernie
Sanders is a man not of his time, but of this time. He was authentic and uncombed
before any YouTube star thought to make that concept cool.

Millennials are also a massively progressive generation. Frank Luntz, the top
conservative pollster, says this generation is so liberal it should frighten political
leaders. Sanders is as progressive as they are, but not because he crafted a slick
political message to appeal to the younger generation. It’s because he is a true
progressive who believed in these principles even when they were horribly out of
fashion. He fought for them not out of expediency but out of conviction. That’s the
thing about authenticity — you can’t fake it.

Are we seriously asking why young people don’t like the contrived politicians,
who are awash in donor money, privilege, and connections? That’s obvious.

205
David Maraniss, and Robert Samuels. "74-year-old Bernie Sanders’s Remarkable Dominance among
Young Voters, in 1 Chart." Washington Post. March 17, 2016. Accessed March 19, 2016.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/03/17/74-year-old-bernie-sanderss-amazing-
dominance-among-young-voters-in-1-chart/.

65.
What’s not obvious is how older generations got so used to that pulp. They got
used to news actors reading carefully-produced, establishment-engineered scripts.
They got used to the unctuous career politicians that design their message to the
voters while they vote with the donors. Running to the left or right during the
primaries and then to the center during the general election isn’t savvy, it’s phony.

The problem in our politics today isn’t the younger generation. The problem is
what the older generations have grown accustomed to and now meekly accept as
fact. The younger voters are right — you can and you should expect better from
your representatives.

Millennials grew up on the Internet. Older generations look at the downside of
being an Internet native and carp about how kids are obsessed with their smart
phones. But what about the upside? Those phones can access infinite
information — more than all of the libraries of mankind put together. Yes, a lot of
the younger generation check Tinder on their phones, but a lot of them also check
the facts. With all of this information literally in their pocket, they’re better
equipped to gauge the accuracy of political claims — much more so than older
generations who get their news filtered through broad, corporate television
broadcasts.

Millennials are much more informed than they get credit for and many are more
politically knowledgeable than older generations. A lot of Millennials know that
many countries have a single payer healthcare system and understand how realistic
it is in most of the developed world. Many know how serious climate change is
and the need for immediate change in energy and pollution policy. They
understand that incrementalism isn’t pragmatism, it’s running out the clock on a
problem that only gets worse over time.”
206

Conventional political wisdom suggests Millennials will move right as they age.
But a 2007 study in the American Sociological Review notes that learning, adaptation,
and reassessment are behaviors that shape ideology, and this data contradicts “commonly
held assumptions that aging leads to conservatism.”
207
Older Americans happened to be
more conservative than Millennials when they were young.
208
In 1984 and 1988, young
voters backed Ronald Reagan and George H. W. Bush by large margins. Millennials

206
Cenk Uygur. "Why Millennials Love Bernie Sanders." Medium. April 28, 2016. Accessed April 28,
2016. https://medium.com/@cenkuygur/why-millennials-love-bernie-sanders-2fb8d25bde28#.yax3j5kh2.
207
Nicholas L. Danigelis, Michelle Hardy, and Stephen J. Cutler. "Population Aging, Intracohort Aging,
and Sociopolitical Attitudes." American Sociological Review 72 (2007): 823.
208
Danigelis, Hardy, and Cutler. “Population Aging,” 818.

66.
aren’t liberal because they are young, they came of age where George W. Bush presided
over an administration that irresponsibly started the Iraq War, continued wealthy and
corporate tax cuts, and further deregulated the financial industry, leading to the Great
Recession. Millennials make up the most secular, most racially diverse, least nationalistic
generation in American history – all of which is unlikely to change. The 2012 study “The
Personalization of Politics: Political Identity, Social Media, and Changing Patterns of
Participation” finds social and digital media and changes in news consumption and
political interaction has also altered political beliefs for Millennials.
“The group-based ‘identity politics’ of the ‘new social movements’ that arose
after the 1960s still exist, but the recent period has seen more diverse
mobilizations in which individuals are mobilized around personal lifestyle values
to engage with multiple causes such as economic justice (fair trade, inequality,
and development policies), environmental protection, and worker and human
rights.”
209

There is no doubt some will move more conservative as they age, make more
money, buy a house or get married, but that rightward shift will still be more left on the
spectrum than Reagan conservatism.
Steinhorn describes the Millennial generation in an interview:
“I don’t think ‘left’ or ‘right’ is the best way to describe Millennials. They tend to
be more liberal or progressive or inclusive on most social issues. Inclusivity and
acceptance are core values for this generation. This is a far more environmentally
conscious generation. Meaningful work and corporate social responsibility are
important to them – not only in the jobs they will take, but in terms of their
purchasing decisions. They generally have a cosmopolitan, progressive
framework on any number of issues.

It doesn’t necessarily mean that’s how they view government. Millennials are
looking at this media fascination with the startup culture, but also their own
experience with the profoundly changing media landscape, which has to adapt
almost daily, weekly, or monthly. They prefer organizational structures that are

209
Bennett, W. Lance. "The Personalization of Politics: Political Identity, Social Media, and Changing
Patterns of Participation." The Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science 644 (2012):
20.

67.
nimble. When you look at surveys or polls of how they view work, they say they
want to rise up fast, but they don’t want blocks in their way. They want to be able
to experiment and try new things, and have a great degree of flexibility.

That doesn’t make them liberal or conservative, but it certainly creates a mindset
that they will bring to decisions that are related to governance. Uber and the early
adoption of ride sharing services is an example. Young people aren’t fully
conscious of the political argument that taxis are a cartel in many cities. What
they appreciate is the rapid-fire response that Uber offers and the convenience of
being able to get this service. They can’t understand why other institutions
haven’t been able to adopt that sensibility.

For many of them, it was disappointing for them as observers, since most are still
on their parents’ health care plans, or those that are employed have health care, to
see the rollout of Obamacare seem so 1990s. This is sort of a symbolic moment
for them, since they won’t want government to work like this. With all of the data
and analytics available, they know we have the resources to make government
more efficient, and to be able to provide services and reach people in a more
individualized basis. At the same time, young people are wary about government
having all this data stored – look at the generalized concern of the NSA brought
out by Edward Snowden.

Overall, this is a generation that is generally cosmopolitan and progressive on a
wide range of issues. It probably does want government involvement in
workplace conditions, labor rules, environmental conditions, nutrition, food and
drug administration, national parks, and all of the things people absolutely take
for granted that government does for them. But they are agnostic about how
government delivery ought to be in the sense that they would like government
delivery be more contemporary.”
210

When Bush won the presidency in 2000, very few Millennials could vote. In
2016, by contrast, they will constitute roughly one-third of those who turn out. In 2000,
African Americans, Hispanics, and Asians constituted 20 percent of voters. In 2016, they
will constitute more than 30 percent. Whit Ayres, a political consultant for the Rubio
campaign, calculates in his book, “2016 and Beyond: How Republicans Can Elect a
President in the New America,” that a Republican nominee will need almost 30 percent
of the minority vote to win the 2016 Presidential Election, even if they win 60 percent of

210
Leonard Steinhorn. "Interview with Leonard Steinhorn." Telephone interview by author. October 26,
2015.

68.
the white vote (something that hasn’t been accomplished since Ronald Reagan in
1984).
211
Mitt Romney got 17 percent. The increased presence of Millennials and
minorities will inevitably force the Republicans to moderate their presidential campaigns
and how they govern once in office.
Figure 17: Democratic Winning Coalition in the
Likely 2016 Presidential Electorate
212

This doesn’t necessarily forecast an inevitable nationwide leftist groupthink –
differences between the Democrats and Republicans will persist, and America’s
widespread political moderation will remain largely intact. But just as Reagan changed
America’s ideological trajectory rightward, Obama has steered the course leftward.
“On the ideological playing field, the 50-yard line shifts further left. It means the
next Republican president won’t be able to return the nation to the pre-Obama era.
The next Democratic president will be more liberal than Barack Obama. The next
Republican president will be more liberal than George W. Bush. In the late ’60s
and ’70s, amid left-wing militancy and racial strife, a liberal era ended. Today,
amid left-wing militancy and racial strife, a liberal era is only just beginning.”
213

Dwight Eisenhower followed the New Deal Presidents Franklin D. Roosevelt and
Harry Truman by curtailing the growth of government rather than returning American

211
Whit Ayres, Lesley Dahl, and Cheryl Glenn, “2016 and Beyond: How Republicans Can Elect a
President in the New America.” Washington D.C.: Resurgent Republic, 2015. Kindle.
212
Ayres, Dahl, and Glenn, “2016 and Beyond,” Kindle.
213
Beinart, “Why America Is Moving Left.”

69.
politics to the 1920s – he essentially ratified the New Deal.
214
When Bill Clinton
succeeded Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush, he pushed punitive anti-crime laws,
repealed regulation on banks, signed NAFTA into law, cut government spending to
balance budgets, reformed welfare, and declared, “the era of big government is over.”
215

He justified the rising tide of conservatism at the time.
As the Millennial generation seemed ready to accept a new, progressive America
based on tolerance – the Democrats are in a prime position to seize political power if they
choose to cater to the uptick in national-level liberalism. The political climate for liberal
policies has never been stronger, and it seems this will only get more accepting for the
foreseeable future. The Republicans have forced the Democrats to become centrist to
center-right since the Reagan Revolution, but the Democrats can alter this course by
harnessing the support of the Millennials and minorities.
This national leftward shift will give the Democrats an advantage in political
platforms. As popular opinion shifts national support toward more liberal or progressive
policy, this will force the Republicans to reconsider their party’s ideology – this doesn’t
mean that they have to become liberal, but they will eventually be forced to moderate
their stances. Meanwhile, the Democrats, even though some of their platforms fall
outside popular support, will become the more mainstream party. Most importantly,
though, an increasingly eclectic and youthful population brings this rising liberalism.
Since the minority vote has been a staple of Democratic electoral fortune, the Millennial
diversity means this advantage is also intergenerational as well.

214
Beinart, “Why America Is Moving Left.”
215
Beinart, “Why America Is Moving Left.”

70.
3. MANY OF THE DEMOCRAT’S PLATFORMS ALIGN WITH POPULAR OPINION
To coincide with this leftward shift in American culture on a broad, national level,
on an issue-by-issue basis, the American electorate actually supports many Democratic or
liberal platforms. Whether the DNC, or 2016 presidential candidates Hillary Clinton or
Bernie Sanders endorses them, these positions are embraced by a majority of Americans.
LGBT Rights:

The official Democratic website states:
“Democrats stand with the LGBT community in the fight to ensure that all
Americans benefit from the civil rights that each of us deserves — because the
fight for equality affects us all. … We will continue to fight alongside the LGBT
community as members, friends, family, and allies with the hope that one day
each of us will be seen as equal under the law.”
216

Bernie Sanders has a long and documented history of fighting for LGBT rights
while Clinton’s support has been more checkered. Although she opposed marriage
equality when she ran for President in 2008, she has recently altered her erstwhile
position when she served as Secretary of State when she stated, “gay rights are human
rights and human rights are gay rights.”
217

UCLA’s Williams Institute aggregated the results of over 325 national surveys
from 1977 to 2014 in order to track public opinion trends on LGBT rights. It found:
• Public support for LGBT rights has doubled in the past three decades, rapidly
increasing since 2004: “While it is generally assumed that this shift is largely
because younger supportive generation are replacing less supportive, older ones,
this analysis in fact shows that a broader cultural shift impacts people of all ages.
In particular, since the mid 1990s, the positive impact on attitudes from increased
LGBT visibility – from more LGBT people being out, the growing number of
LGBT characters on television, and the national discussion of, and policy toward,

216
"Democrats - LGBT Community." Democrats.org. Accessed January 5, 2016.
https://www.democrats.org/people/lgbt-community.
217
Jonathan Capeheart. "Clinton's Geneva Accord: 'Gay Rights Are Human Rights'" Washington Post.
December 7, 2011. Accessed January 5, 2015. https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-
partisan/post/clintons-geneva-accord-gay-rights-are-human-rights/2011/03/04/gIQAPUipcO_blog.html.

71.
marriages equality – has appeared rapidly to increase support among people of all
ages.”
218

• There was a 40 percent increase in support for transgender people between 2005
and 2011 and general favorability toward bisexual people.
219

• A majority of the public supports adoption rights for same-sex couples and
support has more than doubled since 1992. Since 2008, the majority has supported
these rights and currently stands at 63 percent.
220

• 68 percent of Americans perceive LGBT people face considerable discrimination.
Additionally, 72 percent of Americans support laws protecting lesbians and gays
from job discrimination and 75 percent for transgender people.
221

• 70 percent of people in 2012 favor LGBT people actively serving in the military
and reserve, a 20-point increase since 1993.
222

Figure 18: Public Support for Marriage Equality by Generation
(Pew Research May 2015)
223

* 58 percent of Millennial Republicans support marriage equality.

Marijuana Legalization:

The Democratic Party does not have an official position on marijuana
legalization, and Clinton and Sanders have varying opinions on the matter. Clinton has
expressed limited support for medical marijuana, telling a CNN town hall event, “I think

218
Flores, “National Trends LGBT Rights,” 5.
219
Flores, “National Trends LGBT Rights,” 5.
220
Flores, “National Trends LGBT Rights,” 6.
221
Flores, “National Trends LGBT Rights,” 7.
222
Flores, “National Trends LGBT Rights,” 7.
223
"Changing Attitudes on Gay Marriage." Pew Research Centers Religion Public Life Project RSS. July
28, 2015. Accessed January 5, 2016. http://www.pewforum.org/2015/07/29/graphics-slideshow-changing-
attitudes-on-gay-marriage/.

72.
for people who are in extreme medical conditions and have anecdotal evidence that it
works, there should be availability under appropriate circumstances.”
224
She also stated
she would not look to reverse decisions made by states and cities to legalize pot.
Meanwhile, Sanders has recently declared his support for the legalization of recreational
and medical use on a federal level, citing the racial disparities in criminal enforcement
and incarceration rates and the overall failure of the War on Drugs.
225
Both agree that
people shouldn’t be imprisoned for marijuana use and possession.
Figure 19: Historical Trends in Public Support for Legalizing Recreation Marijuana Use
(Pew Research & Gallup 2015)
226 227

* Support increases with each generation: 35 percent in Silent Generation, 58 percent in Baby Boomers,
64 percent in Generation X and 71 percent Millennials.
* 63 percent of Millennial Republicans favor legalizing the recreational use of marijuana.

Gun Control:

Bernie Sanders on gun control:

224
Metzler, Rebekah. "On Pot: What Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders Would Do." CNN. October 14,
2015. Accessed January 5, 2016. http://www.cnn.com/2015/10/13/politics/pot-hillary-clinton-bernie-
sanders/.
225
Metzler, Ibid.
226
Jones, Jeffrey M. "In U.S., 58% Back Legal Marijuana Use." Gallup. October 21, 2015. Accessed
January 5, 2016. http://www.gallup.com/poll/186260/back-legal-marijuana.aspx.
227
Gao, George. "63% of Republican Millennials Favor Marijuana Legalization." Pew Research Center
RSS. February 27, 2015. Accessed January 5, 2016. http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2015/02/27/63-
of-republican-millennials-favor-marijuana-legalization/.

73.
“I will take the following concrete steps to reduce gun violence: strengthen and
better enforce the instant background check system; close the gun-show loophole;
make 'straw man' purchases a federal crime; ban semi-automatic assault weapons
which are designed strictly for killing human beings; and work to fix our broken
mental health system.”
228

Hillary Clinton’s position on gun violence prevention:
229

• “Strengthen background checks and close dangerous loopholes in the current
system.”
• “Hold irresponsible dealers and manufacturers accountable.”
• Keep guns out of the hands of terrorists, domestic abusers, other violent criminals,
and the severely mentally ill.”

Figure 20: American Popular Opinion on Various Gun Control Measures
by Demographic (Pew Research August 2015)
230

228
"Bernie Sanders on Gun Control." On The Issues: Bernie Sanders on Gun Control. Accessed March 16,
2016. http://www.ontheissues.org/2016/Bernie_Sanders_Gun_Control.htm.
229
"Hillary Clinton on Gun Violence Prevention." Hillary Clinton. Accessed March 16, 2016.
https://www.hillaryclinton.com/issues/gun-violence-prevention/.
230
"Continued Bipartisan Support for Expanded Background Checks on Gun Sales." Pew Research Center
for the People and the Press. August 13, 2015. Accessed January 24, 2016. http://www.people-
press.org/2015/08/13/continued-bipartisan-support-for-expanded-background-checks-on-gun-sales/.

74.
Immigration Reform:

The Democratic Party’s stance on immigration reform:
“Democrats support comprehensive reform grounded in the principles of
responsibility and accountability: Responsibility from the federal government to
secure our borders: The Obama administration has dedicated unprecedented
resources to securing our borders and reducing the flow of illegal traffic in both
directions. Responsibility from unscrupulous businesses that break the law:
Employers who exploit undocumented workers undermine American workers,
and they have to be held accountable. Responsibility from people who are living
in the United States illegally: Undocumented workers who are in good standing
must admit that they broke the law, pay taxes and a penalty, learn English, and get
right with the law before they can get in line to earn their citizenship.”
231

Hillary Clinton’s official website lays out her plans for immigration reform:
232

• “Fight for comprehensive immigration reform legislation with a path to full and
equal citizenship.”
• “Defend President Obama’s DACA and DAPA executive actions.”
• “Do everything possible under the law to go further to protect families.”
• “Conduct humane, targeted immigration enforcement (which entails ending
family detention and close private immigrant detention centers).”
• “Expand access to affordable health care to all families.”
• “Promote naturalization.”

Bernie Sanders’s website lays out his plan for immigration reform:
233

• “Dismantle inhumane deportation programs and detention centers.”
• “Pave the way for a swift and fair legislative roadmap to citizenship for the eleven
million undocumented immigrants.”
• “Ensure our border remains secure by modernizing it while respecting local
communities by demilitarizing them.”
• “Regulate the future flow of immigrants by modernizing the visa system and
rewriting bad trade agreements.”
• “Enhance access to justice and reverse the criminalization of immigrants.”
• “Establish parameters for independent oversight of key U.S. Department of
Homeland Security (DHS) agencies.”

231
"Democrats - Immigration Reform." Democrats.org. Accessed January 5, 2016.
https://www.democrats.org/issues/immigration-reform.
232
"Hillary Clinton on Immigration Reform." Hillary Clinton 2016. Immigration Reform. Accessed January
5, 2016. https://www.hillaryclinton.com/issues/immigration-reform/.
233
"A Fair and Humane Immigration Policy - Bernie Sanders." Bernie Sanders. Accessed January 5, 2016.
https://berniesanders.com/issues/a-fair-and-humane-immigration-policy/.

75.
Figure 21: American Popular Opinion on Immigration (Pew Research September 2015)
234

Demographic
Oppose
Ending
Birthright
Citizenship
Favor
Building a
Fence on
U.S.-Mexico
Boarder
Immigrants
Should Be
Allowed to
Stay
Legally
Should Be
Allowed to
Apply for
Citizenship
Should Be
Allowed to
Apply for
Permanent
Residency
Should Not
Be Allowed
to Stay
Legally
White 53% 46% 68% 43% 23% 29%
Black 70% 54% 83% 58% 23% 15%
Hispanic 79% 33% 87% 62% 23% 11%
18-29 71% 25% 82% 55% 26% 17%
30-49 66% 34% 72% 46% 25% 26%
50-64 48% 46% 72% 45% 24% 27%
65+ 52% 52% 69% 44% 22% 26%
College Grad. + 61% 37% N/A N/A N/A N/A
Some College 59% 51% N/A N/A N/A N/A
HS or Less 60% 49% N/A N/A N/A N/A
Republican 44% 73% 66% 37% 28% 32%
Democrat 75% 29% 80% 57% 21% 17%
Independent 58% 43% 74% 48% 24% 24%

Abortion:

As of January 2016, she has taken a stauncher pro-choice stance:
“Politicians have no business interfering with women's personal health decisions.
I will oppose efforts to roll back women's access to reproductive health care,
including Republican efforts to defund Planned Parenthood. As president, I'll
stand up for Planned Parenthood and women’s access to critical health services,
including safe, legal abortion.”
235

Bernie Sanders has a similar view:
“The decision about abortion is a decision for a woman and her doctor to make,
not the government. I will not allow the right wing to deny women control over
their own bodies by forcing clinics to close, extending waiting periods, or
inventing other methods that create de facto abortion bans. Roe v. Wade is the law
of the land and must remain so.”
236

234
"On Immigration Policy, Wider Partisan Divide Over Border Fence Than Path to Legal Status." Pew
Research Center for the People and the Press RSS. October 8, 2015. Accessed January 5, 2016.
http://www.people-press.org/2015/10/08/on-immigration-policy-wider-partisan-divide-over-border-fence-
than-path-to-legal-status/.
235
"Hillary Clinton on Abortion." On the Issues. Accessed March 16, 2016.
http://www.ontheissues.org/2016/Hillary_Clinton_Abortion.htm.
236
"Bernie Sanders on Abortion." On the Issues. Accessed March 16, 2016.
http://www.ontheissues.org/2016/Bernie_Sanders_Abortion.htm.

76.
Figure 22: Circumstances Under Which
Abortion Should be Legal
237

238

Figure 23: Trend in “Pro-Choice” Support by Gender, Age, and Party ID
(Gallup May 2015)
239

* National opinion is split between “Pro-Choice” (50 percent) and “Pro-Life” (44 percent)

237
Lydia Saad, "Americans Choose "Pro-Choice" for First Time in Seven Years." Gallup. May 29, 2015.
Accessed March 16, 2016. http://www.gallup.com/poll/183434/americans-choose-pro-choice-first-time-
seven-years.aspx.
238
"Last Week Tonight with John Oliver: Abortion Laws." YouTube. February 21, 2016. Accessed March
16, 2016. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DRauXXz6t0Y.
239
Saad, “Americans Choose ‘Pro-Choice.’”

77.
NSA Surveillance:

The DNC does not have an official position on what should be done with the
NSA’s bulk data collection program, but members of the Democratic Party are split on
the issue; the liberal base, headed by Elizabeth Warren, oppose this program while
centrist base is more favorable. Hillary Clinton, who stepped down as Secretary of State
just before Edward Snowden broadcasted the details of the NSA’s accumulation of
communication metadata, supports the program. Although she favors this policy, it comes
with caveats – she believes it should be reformed to balance civil liberties and security
and should be more transparent.
240
Meanwhile, Sanders said in the first Democratic
debate that he would “absolutely” end NSA spying.
241
He also voted against the
PATRIOT Act and voted against the USA Freedom Act on the grounds that it was
insufficient in reforming the program.
Both Pew Research and USA Today Polls show that the majority of Americans
oppose the NSA Surveillance program:
242

243

• A majority of Americans (54 percent) disapprove of the U.S. government’s
collection of telephone and Internet data as part of anti-terrorism efforts, while
42% approve of the program.
• Democrats are divided on the program (48 percent oppose, 47 percent favor)
while Republicans (56 percent oppose, 41 percent favor) and Independents (57
percent oppose, 39 percent favor) are much less supportive.
• More broadly, most Americans don’t see a need to sacrifice civil liberties to be
safe from terrorism: In spring 2014, 74 percent said they should not give up

240
Alex Seitz-Wald. "Hillary Clinton Endorses NSA Reform Bill." MSNBC. May 7, 2015. Accessed
January 5, 2016. http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/hillary-clinton-endorses-nsa-reform-bill.
241
Julian Hattern. "Sanders Would 'absolutely' End NSA Spying." The Hill. October 13, 2015. Accessed
January 5, 2016. http://thehill.com/policy/national-security/256865-sanders-would-absolutely-end-nsa-
spying.
242
George Gao. "What Americans Think about NSA Surveillance, National Security and Privacy." Pew
Research Center. May 29, 2015. Accessed January 5, 2016. http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-
tank/2015/05/29/what-americans-think-about-nsa-surveillance-national-security-and-privacy/.
243
Susan Page. "Poll: Most Americans Now Oppose the NSA Program." USA Today. January 20, 2014.
Accessed January 5, 2016. http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2014/01/20/poll-nsa-
surveillance/4638551/.

78.
privacy and freedom for the sake of safety, while just 22 percent said the opposite.
This view had hardened since December 2004, when 60 percent said they should
not have to give up more privacy and freedom to be safe from terrorism.
• Americans want to control their personal information, most say it is important to
control who can get their information (93 percent), as well as what information
about them is collected (90 percent).

Normalizing Relations with Cuba:

In July 2015, President Obama announced the U.S. would reestablish diplomatic
relations with Cuba, reopening American embassies in the country and calling on the
Republican-controlled Congress to end the trade embargo, which they have been
reluctant to do.
244
Both Clinton and Sanders support Obama’s decision to normalize
relations and to end the trade embargo.
245

246

Figure 24: American Popular Opinion on Normalizing Relations With Cuba
(Pew Research July 2015)
247

Demographic
Favor Re-establishing
Diplomatic Relations
Favor Ending the Trade
Embargo
Men 78% 72%
Women 67% 78%
White 72% 72%
Black 68% 74%
Hispanic 75% 74%
18-29 78% 83%
30-49 73% 72%
50-64 72% 71%
65+ 68% 64%
College Grad. + 81% 72%
Some College 75% 71%
HS or Less 65% 64%
Republican 40% 47%
Democrat 74% 78%
Independent 67% 69%

244
Eugene Scott. "Obama Announces Re-establishment of U.S.-Cuba Ties." CNN. July 1, 2015. Accessed
January 5, 2016. http://www.cnn.com/2015/07/01/politics/obama-note-to-castro-reestablish-ties/.
245
Sabrina Siddiqui. "Hillary Clinton Calls for End to Cuba Embargo in Attack on 'outdated' Policy." The
Guardian. July 31, 2015. Accessed January 5, 2016. http://www.theguardian.com/us-
news/2015/jul/31/hillary-clinton-cuba-embargo-outdated-policy.
246
"Sanders Statement on Cuba." Sen. Bernie Sanders. April 14, 2015. Accessed January 5, 2016.
http://www.sanders.senate.gov/newsroom/press-releases/sanders-statement-on-cuba.
247
"Growing Public Support for U.S. Ties With Cuba – And an End to the Trade Embargo." Pew Research
Center for the People and the Press RSS. July 21, 2015. Accessed January 5, 2016. http://www.people-
press.org/2015/07/21/growing-public-support-for-u-s-ties-with-cuba-and-an-end-to-the-trade-embargo/.

79.
Health Care:

Hillary Clinton has a long history with health care reform, fighting for single-
payer during her time as First Lady. After that long, contentious fight with the
Republicans, years of legislative gridlock have caused her to balk from a government-run
system.
Her website lists her position:
248

• “Defend the Affordable Care Act and build on it to slow the growth of out-of-
pocket costs.”
• “Crack down on rising prescription drug prices and hold drug companies
accountable so they get ahead by investing in research, no jacking up costs.”

Bernie Sanders has been vociferous about a “Medicare for all” system, universally
covering all Americans and guaranteeing basic health care as a right:
249

• “Cover the entire continuum of health care, from inpatient to outpatient care;
preventive to emergency care; primary care to specialty care, including long-term
and palliative care; vision, hearing and oral health care; mental health and
substance abuse services; as well as prescription medications, medical equipment,
supplies, diagnostics and treatments.”
• “Patients will be able to choose a health care provider without worrying about
whether that provider is in-network and will be able to get the care they need
without having to read any fine print or trying to figure out how they can afford
the out-of-pocket costs.”

Health care reform has been a fierce battle for many decades, and American
sentiment toward a single-payer system is muddled, but is encouraging:
• In February 2016, an Associated Press poll asked: “Would you favor or oppose
replacing the current private health insurance system in the United States with a
single government-run and taxpayer-funded plan like Medicare for all Americans
that would cover medical, dental, vision and long-term care services?”
Respondents answered (39 percent favor, 33 percent oppose, 26 percent no
opinion).
250

• In February 2016 Kaiser Health Tracking poll asked: “Do you favor or oppose
having guaranteed health insurance coverage in which all Americans would get

248
"Hillary Clinton on Health Care." Health Care. Accessed March 16, 2016.
https://www.hillaryclinton.com/issues/health-care/.
249
"Medicare for All: Leaving No One Behind - Bernie Sanders." Bernie Sanders. Accessed March 16,
2016. https://berniesanders.com/issues/medicare-for-all/.
250
"THE AP-GfK POLL: February, 2016." GfK. February 2016. Accessed March 15, 2016. http://ap-
gfkpoll.com/main/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/AP-GfK_Poll_February-2016-topline_health.pdf.

80.
their insurance through a single government health plan?” Respondents answered
(50 percent favor and 43 percent oppose).
251

• That same poll asked the question in a different way: The results show that
“Medicare-for-all” generated the most positive reaction from Americans (64
percent positive, 29 percent negative), followed by “guaranteed universal health
coverage” (57 percent, 38 percent), “single-payer health insurance system” (44
percent, 40 percent) and finally “socialized medicine” (38 percent, 49 percent).

Figure 25: Partisan View on Medicare for All (Top) and Next Steps for the ACA
(Bottom) (Kaiser Health Tracking Poll December 2015)
252

* National support for Medicare for All: 58 percent support / 35 percent oppose

251
"Kaiser Health Tracking Poll 2016." Kaiser Family Foundation. February 2016. Accessed March 15,
2016. http://files.kff.org/attachment/topline-methodology-kaiser-health-tracking-poll-february-2016.
252
"Kaiser Health Tracking Poll: December 2015." Kaiser Health Tracking Poll: December 2015. Accessed
March 16, 2016. http://kff.org/uninsured/poll-finding/kaiser-health-tracking-poll-december-2015/.

81.

Reducing College Debt:

The Obama Administration has made efforts to reduce crippling student loan
debts to pay the ballooning costs of college tuition, reform education standards and
provide support to America’s teachers:
253

• “In 2010, President Obama signed into law student loan reform, which cut out the
role of big banks. The Obama administration also doubled our investment in Pell
Grants and made it easier for students to pay back student loans. President Obama
has worked to reform the higher education system and invested the most in
student aid since the G.I. Bill.”
• “The Obama administration is working to overhaul the ‘No Child Left Behind’
program and provide teachers with more professional support and resources —
while also holding them accountable. President Obama instituted “Race to the
Top,” a revolutionary program designed to promote innovation and provide
incentives for improvement in education. As a result, dozens of states have made
changes to increase standards and implement reforms.”
• “In 2015, the President announced a landmark proposal to make community
college free to anyone who is willing to work for it, a measure that could benefit
nearly nine million students each year.”
Hillary Clinton announced a bold college finance plan, which would cost $350
billion over 10 years and include new refinancing options for those already struggling
with debt.
254
Under the plan, about $175 billion in grants would go to states that
guarantee that students would not have to take out loans to cover tuition at four-year
public colleges and universities.
255
In return for the money, states would have to end
budget cuts to increase spending over time on higher education, while also working to
slow the growth of tuition, though the plan does not require states to cap it.
256
Her plan is

253
"Democrats - Education." Democrats.org. Accessed January 5, 2016.
https://www.democrats.org/issues/education.
254
Patrick Healy. "Hillary Clinton to Offer Plan on Paying College Tuition Without Needing Loans." The
New York Times. August 9, 2015. Accessed January 5, 2016.
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/10/us/politics/hillary-clinton-to-offer-plan-on-paying-college-tuition-
without-needing-loans.html.
255
Healy, “Hillary Clinton to Offer Plan.”
256
Healy, “Hillary Clinton to Offer Plan.”

82.
a combination of ideas from both the left and right, for example, colleges would have to
hold down costs and show improvements on graduation rates. Funding would come from
capping the value of itemized deductions that wealthy families can take on their tax
returns.
Bernie Sanders has announced a much more ambitious plan, calling for a $750
million plan funded by a “robin hood” tax on Wall St. speculation and derivatives to
make college tuition free.
257
He will also stop the federal government from profiting off
of student loans, cut the student loan interest rate and allow Americans to refinance
student loans at today’s low interest rate.
258

Figure 26: American Popular Opinion on Debt Free College (YouGov August 2015)
259

Demographic
No Family or Student Should Have to
Borrow to Pay Tuition at a Public
College or University
The Government Should Use Taxes to
Make Public College or University
Free
Agree Disagree Agree Disagree
Male 56% 34% 44% 43%
Female 67% 24% 47% 39%
White 59% 32% 40% 48%
Black 75% 11% 60% 21%
Hispanic 61% 21% 58% 19%
18-29 65% 20% 52% 32%
30-44 57% 26% 49% 34%
45-64 62% 32% 44% 43%
65 and Older 62% 37% 34% 58%
Family Income
Under $40,000
70% 21% 53% 33%
Family Income
$40,000– $80,000
59% 35% 44% 47%
Family Income
Over $80,000
55% 45% 38% 55%
Republican 38% 52% 17% 73%
Democrat 82% 11% 72% 18%
Independent 58% 30% 40% 42%

257
Bernie Sanders for President. "On the Issues: It's Time to Make College Tuition Free and Debt Free."
258
“On the Issues.”
259
Moore, Peter. "Three-fifths Want Taxes to Fund Debt-free College." YouGov: What the World Thinks.
August 20, 2015. Accessed January 5, 2016. https://today.yougov.com/news/2015/08/20/three-fifths-want-
debt-free-college/.

83.

Raising Taxes on the Wealthiest Americans to Fund Government Social
Programs/Income Inequality/Wealth Redistribution:

Clinton and Sanders believe the wealthy need to pay more in taxes so the
government can boost spending on social programs. Clinton wants to raise capital gains
taxes for those who sell their investments within six years, as well as cap tax breaks for
the wealthy. Her campaign has promised not to hike taxes on the middle class, but
corporations and banks will see their taxes increase.
260
Sanders wants to tax capital gains
and dividends as income, hike estate taxes and boost corporate taxes.
261
However,
Sanders has also proposed at least one tax increase that will hit everyone: a new 0.2
percent payroll tax to finance family leave. Both candidates feel the government needs to
spend more to minimize income inequality and boost the economy:
“Sanders wants to invest $1 trillion over five years in infrastructure, create 1
million jobs for disadvantaged youth, and make it easier for workers to join
unions. He would also require employers to provide at least 12 weeks of paid
family and medical leave. Clinton advocates investing in infrastructure and
scientific research. She would establish a national infrastructure bank to make
loans for projects like improving highways, bridges and broadband service.
Clinton would also create a $1,500 tax credit for businesses that hire apprentices
and provide a tax credit to employers contributing to workers' profit-sharing
plan.”
262

260
Tami Lubby. "What the Democrats Think about Taxes, Income Inequality and More." CNNMoney.
November 14, 2015. Accessed January 5, 2016.
http://money.cnn.com/2015/11/14/news/economy/democrats-taxes-income-inequality/.
261
Lubby, “What the Democrats Think.”
262
Lubby, “What the Democrats Think.”

84.
Figure 27: American Popular Opinion on Money and Wealth Redistribution (New York Times June 2015)
263

Demographic
Wealth and
Money
Distribution
Should Be
More Even
Gap Between
Rich and Poor
Should Be
Addressed Now
Government
Should Do More
to Reduce Gap
Between Rich
and Poor
Raise Taxes on
Those Earning
more than
$1,000,000 per
Year
Limit the Amount
of Money Top
Executives of Large
Companies Earn
Men 59% 60% 50% 64% 45%
Women 73% 70% 63% 72% 54%
Income Less than
$50,000
76% 71% 65% 72% 51%
Income
$50,000–$99,999
59% 58% 53% 67% 55%
Income More
than $100,000
52% 60% 45% 58% 37%
Republican 44% 47% 34% 53% 37%
Democrat 89% 83% 81% 87% 60%
Independent 66% 66% 52% 65% 51%
Union Household 72% 72% 65% 75% 59%

Social Security Expansion:

The Democratic Party’s official stance on Social Security:
“For 75 years, Social Security has been an enduring promise to America’s
seniors. Today it remains a safety net for seniors and offers all Americans peace
of mind. In recent years, Democrats have beaten back Republican plans to
privatize Social Security — plans that would have exposed the retirement funds of
millions of American seniors to great risk on the eve of the financial crisis.
Instead, no one lost a penny of Social Security.”
264

Hillary Clinton’s website lays out her plan for handling Social Security:
265

• “Fight any attempts to gamble seniors’ retirement security on the stock market
through privatization.”
• “Oppose reducing annual cost-of-living adjustments.”
• “Oppose Republican efforts to raise the retirement age—an unfair idea that will
particularly hurt the seniors who have worked the hardest throughout their lives.”
• “Oppose closing the long-term shortfall on the backs of the middle class, whether
through benefit cuts or tax increases.”
• “Expand Social Security for those who need it most and who are treated unfairly
by the current system—including women who are widows and those who took
significant time out of the paid workforce to take care of their children, aging
parents, or ailing family members.”

263
"Americans’ Views on Income Inequality and Workers’ Rights." The New York Times. June 2, 2015.
Accessed January 5, 2016. http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2015/06/03/business/income-inequality-
workers-rights-international-trade-poll.html.
264
"Democrats - Retirement Security." Democrats.org. Accessed January 5, 2016.
https://www.democrats.org/issues/retirement-security.
265
"Hillary Clinton on Social Security and Medicare." Hillary Clinton 2016. Accessed January 5, 2016.
https://www.hillaryclinton.com/issues/social-security-and-medicare/.

85.
• “Preserve Social Security for decades to come by asking the wealthiest to
contribute more.”

Bernie Sanders’s website lists his plan to reform Social Security:
266

• “Expand Social Security to all senior citizens.”
• “Lifting the cap on taxable income so that everyone who makes over $250,000 a
year pays the same percentage of their income into Social Security as the middle
class and working families.”
• “Oppose any attempts to raise the retirement age.”
• “Increasing payroll taxes on families making more $118,000.”

The National Academy of Social Insurance conducted a poll in 2013 about public
opinion on Social Security:
267

• 87 percent of Democrats, 81 percent of Independents, and 72 percent of
Republicans say they don’t mind paying Social Security taxes because of the
“security and stability the benefits provide to millions of retired Americans,
disabled individuals, and children and widowed spouses of deceased
workers.”
• Reasons Americans don’t mind paying taxes for Social Security
o 73 percent are confident in the system to provide them benefits when they
retire.
o 73 percent know they would have to support their parents, grandparents,
or other family members if they did not receive Social Security.
o 81 percent agree it provides security and stability to millions of retired
Americans, disabled individuals, and the children and widowed spouses of
deceased workers.
• 85 percent say Social Security is “more important than ever to ensure that retirees
have a dependable income. “
o These views cut across age and income lines: those agreeing include 81
percent of Americans in Generation X and 92 percent of those in the Early
Boomers or prior generations.
o 88 percent of people with family incomes under $30,000, 89 percent of
those earning between $50,000 and $75,000, and 78 percent of those
earning over $100,000.
• Americans are willing to pay more to keep Social Security strong.
o 77 percent say it is critical to preserve Social Security even if it means
increasing the Social Security taxes paid by working Americans.
o 83 percent say it is critical to preserve Social Security even if it means
increasing the Social Security taxes paid by wealthy Americans.

266
"Strengthen and Expand Social Security - Bernie Sanders." Bernie Sanders. Accessed January 5, 2016.
https://berniesanders.com/issues/strengthen-and-expand-social-security/.
267
"Public Opinions on Social Security." National Academy of Social Insurance. 2013. Accessed January 5,
2016. https://www.nasi.org/learn/social-security/public-opinions-social-security.

86.
o These findings hold true across party lines, age groups, race and ethnicity,
and income levels.

Minimum Wage Increase:

Although the DNC does not have an official stance on raising the minimum wage,
Democrats in Congress fiercely debated whether the federal minimum wage should be
increased to $9 or $10.10/hour. With fast food workers across the country protesting for a
minimum wage of $15, this has become a major issue along the campaign trail for both
parties. Bernie Sanders has wholeheartedly embraced the idea, while Clinton has been
less enthusiastic – however, she still wants to raise it to $12 an hour.
268

A February AP/GfK poll shows strong support for raising the minimum wage:
269

• Six in 10 Americans favor raising the minimum wage, including nearly half who
are strongly in favor, while only 2 in 10 are opposed.
• Minimum wage divides Republicans more closely, with only 4 in 10 in favor, 31
percent opposed and 27 percent not leaning either way. Half of moderate-to-
liberal Republicans, but just a third of conservative Republicans, favor a
minimum wage increase.
• About 8 in 10 Democrats and a majority of independents favor raising the
minimum wage.

Paid Sick/Maternity/Paternity Leave:
The DNC does not have a formal position on paid leave in the workplace, but
both Democratic frontrunners are both highly supportive of it. Both Clinton and Sanders
have been longtime advocates and have made it a feature of their economic platforms,
which have played important roles in their respective campaigns.

268
Covert, Bryce. "How A $15 Minimum Wage Took Over The Democratic Party." ThinkProgress.
December 9, 2015. Accessed January 5, 2016. http://thinkprogress.org/economy/2015/12/09/3729764/15-
minimum-wage-history/.
269
Swanson, Emily. "AP-GfK Poll: Most Americans Favor a Higher Minimum Wage." Associated Press
GfK Poll. February 19, 2015. Accessed January 5, 2016. http://ap-gfkpoll.com/featured/findings-from-our-
latest-poll-15.

87.
Figure 28: American Popular Opinion on Paid Sick & Family Leave from Employers
(YouGov January 2015)
270

Demographic
Employers Should Provide
Paid Medical Leave
Employers Should
Provide Paid Maternity
Leave
Employers Should
Provide Paid Paternity
Leave
Agree Disagree Agree Disagree Agree Disagree
Male 63% 25% 60% 30% 50% 37%
Female 77% 14% 75% 16% 59% 23%
White 66% 22% 65% 25% 52% 33%
Black 84% 9% 77% 12% 63% 17%
Hispanic 80% 14% 74% 18% 65% 25%
18-29 76% 13% 80% 10% 70% 16%
30-44 75% 16% 69% 20% 59% 22%
45-64 67% 23% 64% 27% 51% 37%
65 and Older 63% 23% 56% 35% 38% 45%
Family Income
Under $40,000
76% 13% 72% 18% 60% 22%
Family Income
$40,000– $80,000
68% 20% 62% 25% 52% 35%
Family Income
Over $80,000
60% 31% 63% 31% 47% 44%
Republican 51% 35% 50% 36% 36% 49%
Democrat 85% 8% 82% 11% 70% 16%
Independent 70% 19% 67% 23% 54% 29%

Environmental Issues:

The Democratic Party’s official stance on the environment:
“Democrats are committed to curbing the effects of climate change, protecting
America’s natural resources, and ensuring the quality of our air, water, and land
for future generations. From investing in clean-energy to protecting our
ecosystems, the Obama administration and Democrats are working to address our
biggest environmental challenges, paving the way to a more sustainable
America.”
271

Hillary Clinton on the environment:
“Climate change is real—no matter what climate deniers say. I've laid out bold
national goals to address the threats it poses. As president, I’ll say no to drilling in
the Arctic. I’ll stop the tax giveaways to big oil and gas companies. And I’ll make
significant investments in clean energy. Our children's health and future depend
on it.”

Bernie Sanders on combating climate change:
272

270
"Paid Sick Leave." YouGov. February 2, 2015. Accessed January 5, 2016.
http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/p47w13nvvq/tabs_HP_sick_leave_20150202.pdf.
271
"Democrats - Environment." Democrats.org. Accessed March 16, 2016.
https://www.democrats.org/issues/environment.
272
"Full Plan: Combating Climate Change to Save the Planet." Bernie Sanders. Accessed March 16, 2016.
https://berniesanders.com/issues/climate-change/.

88.
• “Cut U.S. carbon pollution by 40 percent by 2030 and by over 80 percent by 2050
by putting a tax on carbon pollution, repealing fossil fuel subsidies and making
massive investments in energy efficiency and clean, sustainable energy such as
wind and solar power.”
• “Create a Clean-Energy Workforce of 10 million good-paying jobs by creating a
100 percent clean energy system. Transitioning toward a completely nuclear-free
clean energy system for electricity, heating, and transportation is not only possible
and affordable it will create millions of good jobs, clean up our air and water, and
decrease our dependence on foreign oil.”
• “Return billions of dollars to consumers impacted by the transformation of our
energy system and protect the most vulnerable communities in the country
suffering the ravages of climate change. Bernie will tax polluters causing the
climate crisis, and return billions of dollars to working families to ensure the
fossil fuel companies don’t subject us to unfair rate hikes. Bernie knows that
climate change will not affect everyone equally – disenfranchised minority
communities and the working poor will be hardest hit. The carbon tax will also
protect those most impacted by the transformation of our energy system and
protect the most vulnerable communities in the country suffering the ravages of
climate change.”

Figure 29: American Popular Opinion on Combating Climate Change
(Pew Research January 2015)
273

273
"How Americans View the Top Energy and Environmental Issues." Pew Research Center. January 15,
2015. Accessed March 16, 2016. http://www.pewresearch.org/key-data-points/environment-energy-2/.

89.

4. THE “BLUE WALL” GIVES THE DEMOCRATS MORE PATHS TO THE WHITE
HOUSE
In the past few Presidential Election cycles, the Democrats have established an
advantage in many states in the electoral map, making a Republican White House victory
an uphill battle. This has become known as the “Blue Wall,” and behind this structure lies
states in the northeast, west coast, and some in the Great Lakes region that carry a high
number of Electoral College votes. In the past six election cycles, the Democratic Party
has won 18 of these states (as well as the District of Columbia), totaling 242 of the
necessary 270 votes needed to win. States falling behind this blue wall generally include
those the Democrats have carried since the 1992 election. In order of decreasing
population these states are: California, New York, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Michigan, New
Jersey, Washington, Massachusetts, Maryland, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Oregon,

90.
Connecticut, Hawaii, Maine, Rhode Island, Delaware and Vermont, as well as the
District of Columbia.
When Jimmy Carter defeated President Gerald Ford in 1976, every big state was
competitive: California, New York, Pennsylvania, Texas, Illinois and Ohio all had at least
25 electoral votes, and each one was decided by less than five points - 20 of 50 states
were won by five points or less.
274
This wasn’t unique; an earlier close election, the 1960
match-up between John Kennedy and Richard Nixon, produced razor-thin results in
exactly the same number of states, with almost all the largest states recording tight
margins of victory.
275

Figure 30: 2000-2012 Party Support by State
276

* Map does not include Washington D.C., which has supported Democrats in each election from 2000-2012.

274
Kyle Kondik, Geoffrey Skelley, and Larry Sabato. "The 2016 Results We Can Already Predict."
POLITICO Magazine. May 3, 2015. Accessed December 15, 2015.
http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/05/2016-predictions-117554.
275
Kondik, Skelley, and Sabato, “2016 Results.”
276
Larry Sabato, Kyle Kondik, and Geoffrey Skelley. "Sabato's Crystal Ball." University of Virginia Center
for Politics. May 7, 2015. Accessed March 16, 2016.
http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/the-map-11-angles-on-the-electoral-college/.

91.
With each passing election cycle, swing sates are becoming more of a rarity, with
forty of the 50 states voting for the same party in every presidential election since 2000.
Of the 10 outliers, three states were rarities. In New Mexico, Al Gore in 2000 and George
W. Bush in 2004 were victorious by wafer-thin margins – since then, the state has
trended Democratic.
277
Obama heavily invested in advertising and field operations
Indiana and North Carolina, while John McCain neglected them, resulting in narrow
victories for Obama.
278
Overall, Hoosiers are still predominantly Republicans while Tar
Heels are marginally so. In reality, only seven true swing states still persist: Colorado,
Florida, Nevada, Ohio, and Virginia (all backing Bush and Obama twice each) and Iowa
and New Hampshire (which have voted Democratic in three of the past four elections).
279

The current composition of the electoral map favors the Democrats, as they only
need to hold their “blue wall” states and add Florida, or Ohio and Virginia, or Ohio and
two smaller swing states (Iowa, New Mexico, Nevada, and New Hampshire) and they
secure the White House.
280
Even if a Republican candidate claims Ohio and Florida, the
Democrats can still win with several remaining combinations of smaller states.
This doesn’t guarantee a Democratic win, but it does mean the Democrats have a
lot more paths to victory than the Republicans. Democrats don’t have any must-win
swing states; Republicans cannot win the White House without Florida, and even then,
they would need a few other battle ground states.

277
Kondik, Skelley, and Sabato, “2016 Results.”
278
Kondik, Skelley, and Sabato, “2016 Results.”
279
Kondik, Skelley, and Sabato, “2016 Results.”
280
Kondik, Skelley, and Sabato, “2016 Results.”

92.
The Center for American Progress ran three simulations of the 2016 election:
281

1. Racial and ethnic groups turn out to vote at 2012 levels and vote for Republicans
and Democrats at 2012 levels: The Democrats won the Electoral College 332-206
in 2012. Under this simulation -- with nothing changed from 2012 except the
passage of time and demographic shifts -- they would add North Carolina to the
“win” column.
2. Racial and ethnic groups turn out at 2012 levels, but vote at 2004 levels: things
get a little closer, because using the Bush-Kerry exit polls means Republicans
take about four in 10 Hispanic voters – versus the 27 percent Mitt Romney got in
2012. The Electoral College, though, still favors Democrats, 291-247. So the 2012
electorate, even if it voted at 2004 levels (under which a GOP President was
reelected) in 2016, would elect a Democrat.
3. Racial and ethnic groups turn out at 2012 levels, but whites vote at 2012 levels,
while racial minorities vote at 2004 levels: This would seem to help Republicans,
because they get the stronger white vote they had in 2012 but the stronger
Hispanic vote they had in 2004. Yet Republicans actually do slightly worse here
than under simulation No. 2. They lose here 303-235, losing Colorado and
Virginia while picking up Missouri.

It remains to be seen how influential the prospect of the first African-American
President affected Hispanic and African-American turnout and voting rates, but even if
the 2016 Republican nominee performs as well as George W. Bush with minority voters,
their hopes of moving into the Oval Office are less likely than a Democratic candidate’s.
Figure 31: Initial “Crystal Ball” 2016 Electoral College Ratings (May 2015)
282

281
Oakford, “The Changing Face.”
282
Sabato, Kondik, and Skelley, "Sabato's Crystal Ball."

93.
For the Democrats, a victory in 2016 entails zero expansion of the blue map, they
have to merely limit blue-to-red transformations. Assuming the lean, likely, and safe
Democratic states remain loyal to the party, the nominee needs to win only 23 of the 85
toss-up electoral votes. Even if a solid Democratic state, such as Wisconsin, turns red, it
is relatively easy to replace those votes with one or two swing states. On the other hand,
Republicans must hold all their usual states and find a way to stitch together an additional
64 electoral votes, or 79 if they can’t hold North Carolina.
283
To do this, the GOP
candidate will have to come close to sweeping the toss-ups states under most scenarios.
This presents a steep uphill battle unless President Obama’s job approval,
economic conditions, foreign affairs, etc. are moving powerfully against the Democrats.
“It is possible, maybe quite plausible, that any new Republican path to Electoral
College victory will wend through the whiter-than-average industrial Midwest,
but as of now it’s more likely to expect the GOP’s electoral map to look much
like George W. Bush’s narrow route to the White House — a solid South, rural
Midwest and Rocky Mountain majority.”
284

Even under the most inclement scenario for the Democrats, they still begin with
108 almost-guaranteed Electoral College votes with California, New York and Illinois –
each state containing the nation’s three largest, and possessing arguably most
cosmopolitan cities with some of the fastest rising Millennial populations. This places the
onus on Republicans to rely on heartland states with significantly less dense populations
and swing states, with some featuring growing minority populations.
In North Carolina, the Latino eligible voting population is projected to increase
from 3.1 percent to 4.5 percent between 2012 and 2016, while the black population
moves from 22 percent to 22.7 percent and the Asian-American population increases

283
Kondik, Skelley, and Sabato, “2016 Results.”
284
Kondik, Skelley, and Sabato, “2016 Results.”

94.
from 1.4 percent to 1.8 percent.
285
The white population, meanwhile, drops by two points,
from 71.3 percent to 69.2 percent.
286
This means a state Romney won by two points in
2012 could potentially be up for grabs in 2016 – assuming similar voting results as 2012.
Over that same four-year period, the Hispanic population is projected to increase by three
points in Florida (from 17.1 percent to 20.2 percent), by nearly three points in Nevada
(15.9 to 18.8), and by about two points each in Colorado and Virginia.
287
Almost every
state loses at least two points off its white population. All of these factors considered,
Politico predicts if Republicans lose either Florida or Ohio, the nominee has no realistic
path to victory: “Both states are typically at least slightly more Republican than the
nation as a whole.”
288

Of course the “Blue Wall” won’t be impenetrable forever, but it does point to one
major sign: as a nation, America does not share the GOP’s current values. During a time
when a supermajority of Americans support marriage equality, Ben Carson said prison
rape proves homosexuality is a choice,
289
Ted Cruz painted a lurid picture of a “gay
jihad” locking up pastors and posing the greatest threat to religious freedom,
290
and Mike
Huckabee boldly declared the arrest of Kim Davis would lead to the “criminalization of

285
Aaron Blake. "The GOP’s Major 2016 Problem — in 3 Maps." Washington Post, January 6, 2015.
Accessed December 15, 2015. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2015/01/06/the-gops-
2016-problem-in-3-maps/.
286
Blake, “GOP’s Major 2016 Problem.”
287
Blake, “GOP’s Major 2016 Problem.”
288
Kondik, Skelley, and Sabato, “2016 Results.”
289
Carimah Townes. "GOP Presidential Hopeful Says Homosexuality Is A Choice, Cites Prison Rape As
Proof." ThinkProgress RSS. March 04, 2015. Accessed March 13, 2016.
http://thinkprogress.org/justice/2015/03/04/3629469/ben-carson-prison-sex/.
290
Jenny Kunter. "Ted Cruz: Gay Community Is Waging a “jihad” against People of Faith." Salon. April
10, 2015. Accessed March 13, 2016.
http://www.salon.com/2015/04/10/ted_cruz_gay_community_is_waging_a_jihad_against_people_of_faith/.

95.
Christianity.”
291
Nearly 70 percent of Americans want Congress to pass comprehensive
immigration reform, but current frontrunner Donald Trump wants to build an enormous
wall along the southern boarder while numerous candidates have called for the repeal of
our Constitutional right of birthright citizenship.
292

While the “Blue Wall” isn’t a total lock for the Democrats, it gives them a
considerable advantage for the 2016 Presidential election. If they are able to muster
support close to the Obama Coalition of 2012, they should be favorites to win the
upcoming Presidential election and possibly the foreseeable future.

WEAKNESSES

1. THEIR CURRENT COALITION OF VOTERS HAS THE LOWEST RATES OF
REGISTRATION AND STRUGGLE TO TURN OUT TO VOTE DURING MIDTERM
ELECTIONS
The media heavily covered the historically low voter turnout during the aftermath
of the 2014 Midterms. However, this is part of a continual trend of long-term voting
patterns. The 2008 and 2012 elections have united young, college-educated voters, low-
income earners ($50,000 or less), women, college-educated whites, African-Americans,
Hispanics and Asians as the modern Democratic coalition. Other than women and the
college-educated, the remaining cohorts within this coalition reported dreadful voting
registration numbers. According to a U.S. Census Report, “Who Votes? Congressional

291
Nick Gass. "Mike Huckabee: U.S. Moving toward 'criminalization of Christianity'" POLITICO. April
24, 2015. Accessed March 13, 2016. http://www.politico.com/story/2015/04/mike-huckabee-us-
criminalization-of-christianity-117310.
292
Carroll, Jason, Bryce Urbany, Julian Cummings, Michael Pisano, Eli Watkins, and Jonathan Reyes.
"Donald Trump Says He'd Build a Wall along the Mexican Border. We Tried to Figure out How." CNN.
February 17, 2016. Accessed March 13, 2016. http://www.cnn.com/2016/02/17/politics/donald-trump-
mexico-wall/.

96.
Elections and the American Electorate: 1978–2014,” many voter groups who lean
Democratic have the lowest percentage of registered voters and turnout rates:
Figure 32: Voting Registration Rate Among Democratic Coalition
293

Group Registration Rate
Americans aged 18-34 23.1%
African-Americans 40.6%
Asian 26.9%
Hispanic 27.0%
Americans earning less than $10,000/year 24.5%
Americans earning $10,000-$14,999/year 30.1%
Americans earning $15,000-$19,999/year 30.8%
Americans earning $20,000-$29,999/year 35.2%
Americans earning $30,000-$39,999/year 40.7%
Americans earning $40,000-$49,999/year 42.4%

Figure 33: Voting Rates in Congressional Elections by Race (1978-2014)
294

Figure 34: Voting Rates In Congressional Elections by Age (1978-2014)
295

293
File, "Who Votes?: Congressional Elections."
294
File, "Who Votes?: Congressional Elections."
295
File, "Who Votes?: Congressional Elections."

97.

Exit data from the 2014 Midterms indicate that the class bias of the electorate
remains strong. Those making under $50,000, who account for 48 percent of the
population, made up 36 percent of voters, while those making over $100,000 made up 30
percent of voters, but 22 percent of the population.
296
The almost unprecedented voter
suppression in the wake of Shelby County v. Holder can certainly be a culprit attributed to
this development. Voter suppression measures disproportionately affect the poor and
people of color, who do not have voter IDs, struggle to get time off work, and are less
likely to be registered in the first place. This only proves the Democrats need to devise
policies that will eradicate voter suppression laws, ease the registration and voting
process, and motivate their constituents to vote in all elections through effective
communications and selecting popular platforms and appealing candidates.
Political scientist James E. Campbell writes about the continual decline in voter
turnout in midterm elections in his 1987 article, “The Revised Theory in Surge and
Decline,” published in the American Journal of Political Science. He suggests midterm
elections lack a “wow” factor and generally only political partisans make the effort to
vote in non-presidential elections.
297
Brian G. Knight of Brown University, in his
National Bureau of Economic Research paper, “An Economic Evaluation of Competing
Explanation for the Midterm Gap,” argues voters become tired of the sitting president and

296
McElewee, "The Income Gap at the Polls."
297
James Campbell, "The Revised Theory of Surge and Decline," American Journal of Political Science
31, (1987): 967.

98.
express their displeasure by voting for the competing party in midterms, which is acute
during the second term of administrations.
298

Obama’s presidential campaigns successfully encouraged remarkable turnouts
among unlikely voters – those who are young, minority, and poor. He communicated a
message of hope and change, and disenfranchised voters believed their vote would make
a difference and their participation in the political process would yield meaningful
dividends. A New York Times video titled, “Why I’m Not Voting in the Midterms,”
features interviews from an eclectic group of non-voters who expressed their cynicism,
expressing their vote is insignificant.
299
The Democratic coalition tends to be
disillusioned, as economic conditions have adversely affected their lives in some way –
whether it’s student loan debt, stagnating wages, or the loss of jobs or homes – and they
tend to view voting in the Midterms as a pointless exercise with no meaningful
consequence.
As Sam Fullwood III of the Center of American Progress notes:

“Civic engagement — best exemplified by voting — depends upon an engaged
and informed citizenry. But in America, it’s hard to be a good citizen if you’re
poor, ignored, or vilified. Life is just too hard to worry about lofty issues such as
public policies and partisan political intrigue. Indeed, among too many poor and
minority Americans, voting and choosing elected officials just isn’t viewed as
essential to their lives. This tends to come as something of a shock to happy, well-
fed, and middle-class or affluent voters, who have a justified belief that the
political process works to their benefit. Politicians covet these voters because their
confidence in the process makes them more likely to support candidates and head

298
Knight, Brian. "An Econometric Evaluation of Competing Explanations for The Midterm Gap."
National Bureau of Economic Research. July 1, 2014. Accessed December 28, 2015.
http://www.nber.org/papers/w20311.
299
Colin Archdeacon, Axel Gerdau, Mike Shum, Kc Mcginnis, and Jason Drakeford. "Why I’m Not Voting
in the Midterms." The New York Times. November 3, 2014. Accessed December 28, 2015.
http://www.nytimes.com/video/us/politics/100000003211589/why-im-not-voting-in-the-
midterms.html?playlistId=100000003212669%C2%AEion=video-grid&version=video-grid-
headline&contentCollection=Midterm%20Elections%202014&contentPlacement=1&module=moreIn-
videos&action.

99.
to the polls on Election Day. But that’s just one more illustration of the wide gulf
between the haves and have-nots in our society.”
300

This lack of mobilization can be accredited to a plethora of factors: historical
precedent, voter apathy, voter ignorance, and voter suppression. However, this is part of a
bigger, more lingering problem for the party – their feeble communications and bemused
branding. The Democrats are simply not giving their base much of a reason to vote in
non-presidential elections; if their voters are unenthusiastic about voting in Midterm and
Gubernatorial elections, they need to fire up their base.

2. INEFFECTIVE COMMUNICATION AND LACK OF A COHERENT BRAND
Heading into the 2014 Midterms, the Democrats chose to run as “Republican-
Lite,” moving to the center-right in hopes to win votes from moderate Republicans,
Independents, and white voters who are frustrated with the GOP. In theory, it isn’t a
terrible idea – older, white voters are the most reliable to consistently turn out to vote.
The problem with this strategy is it doesn’t make the Democrats very distinguishable
from the Republicans. John K. Wilson, a professor at Illinois State University, describes
the flaw in this strategy in his book, “How the Left Can Win Arguments and Influence
People”:
“American centrists have no respect for candidates who try to walk down the
middle of the road. Centrists would much rather follow someone who believes in
something than a candidate who always appeals to the least common political
denominator. To wit: Ronald Reagan was widely liked and respected by a large

300
Sam Fullwood III. "Why Young, Minority, and Low-Income Citizens Don't Vote." Center for American
Progress. November 6, 2014. Accessed December 28, 2015.
https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/race/news/2014/11/06/100627/why-young-minority-and-low-
income-citizens-dont-vote/.

100.
part of the American people, even though his conservative policies ran counter to
the prevailing will.”
301

In an effort to syphon moderate conservatives and Independents from
Republicans, they abandoned their base, which is undergoing more progressive
inclinations in the wake of the frustration with the underwhelming progress made under
the Obama Administration. A June 2015 Gallup poll reports 47 percent of Democrats
consider themselves both socially liberal and economically liberal or moderate, compared
with 39 percent in these categories in 2008 and 30 percent in 2001.
302

“This combined group of Democrats consists of 25 percent who are pure liberals
– identifying as liberal on both social and economic issues – and 22 percent who
are social liberals but moderate on the economy. At the other end of the
ideological spectrum, a scant 7 percent of Democrats are socially and
economically conservative. Most of the rest of Democrats have more mixed
ideological leanings, with 18 percent moderate on both social and economic
issues, and 12 percent socially moderate or liberal but economically conservative.

Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton faces a more liberal base than she did
when she last ran for president in 2008, and no doubt will be calibrating her
positions accordingly. The shift in the electorate may help explain the attention
being garnered by long-shot candidate Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont who
has used the label ‘socialist’ to describe himself and who is avowedly liberal
across the board.”
303

The Democrats have a clear advantage over Republicans in shifting national
demographics and policy ideas, yet they fail to generate public enthusiasm for their
platforms and fail to inspire their base to vote in Midterm elections. Barack Obama ran
masterful campaigns in 2008 and 2012 with messages of hope and change that galvanized
many disenfranchised and apathetic voters to align with the Democratic Party and support
a more progressive agenda. When they run strictly center-right campaigns, they alienate a

301
John K. Wilson, How the Left Can Win Arguments and Influence People: A Tactical Movement for
Pragmatic Progressives, (New York: New York University, 2001), 45.
302
Frank Newport. "Democrats in the U.S. Shift to the Left." Gallup. June 18, 2015. Accessed December
28, 2015. http://www.gallup.com/poll/183686/democrats-shift-left.aspx.
303
Newport, “Democrats in the U.S. Shift.”

101.
major bloc of their base, making them inclined to stay home rather than vote for a
candidate largely undistinguishable from their conservative competitors.
Since the inception of their movement, the Tea Party has seeped into the GOP and
exasperated a decades-long tectonic rightward shift in the American political spectrum.
Rather than staying true to their emerging base and ideology, the Democrats have
followed the Republicans rightward and buckle during legislative negotiations. Most
importantly, they lack a coherent message and a means of communicating their agenda.
This has contributed to disastrous down-ballot campaigns in 2010 and 2014, and a failure
to pass much progressive legislation, leading to the current state of Republican
dominance in the House, Senate, Governorships, and State Legislatures.
To put things in perspective, here is a list of some Republican candidates the
Democrats lost to in 2014:
304

1. Joni Ernst: She ran campaign ads about pig castration, threatening to “make ‘em
squeal” in Washington and won the U.S. Senate seat in Iowa by nearly 10 points.
305

2. Mitch McConnell: Leading up to the 2014 Kentucky Senate race, the Lexington
Herald-Leader/WKYT Bluegrass poll found 32 percent of those surveyed approved of
his job, while 60 disapproved, which was actually worse than Obama’s job approval
(34 percent) in the state.
306
He is currently the least popular U.S. Senator, with only
15 percent job approval, compared to 59 percent disapproval – GOP voters despise
him so much (15 percent approval, 62 percent approval), he actually fares better with
Democratic voters (18 percent approval, 53 percent disapproval).
307
Despite his status
as a political pariah, he still beat Allison Lundergan Grimes by 15 points.

304
Kyle Kulinski. "Dems Slaughtered By Lunatics In 2014 Election." YouTube. November 5, 2014.
Accessed January 3, 2016. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ws-y6OaE4tI.
305
Phillip Rucker and Dan Balz. "How Joni Ernst's Ad about 'castrating Hogs' Transformed Iowa's U.S.
Senate Race." Washington Post. May 11, 2014. Accessed December 17, 2015.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/how-joni-ernsts-ad-about-castrating-hogs-transformed-iowas-us-
senate-race/2014/05/11/c02d1804-d85b-11e3-95d3-3bcd77cd4e11_story.html.
306
Youngman, Sam. "Alison Lundergan Grimes Holds a Slim 4-point Advantage over Mitch McConnell in
Kentucky." Lexington Herald-Leader. February 6, 2014. Accessed March 16, 2016.
http://www.kentucky.com/news/politics-government/article44470230.html.
307
“Ryan Off To Good Start As Speaker; McConnell Still Down in Dumps.” Public Policy Polling.
November 20, 2015. Accessed December 17, 2015. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/mitch-
mcconnell/.

102.
3. Paul LePage: As Governor of Maine, he won re-election by nearly five points,
despite trying to repeal child labor laws in an attempt to make the state’s legal
working age 12 – something that has been regulated in the Pine Tree State since
1847.
308

4. Michael Peroutka: A Neo-Confederate and Christian Reconstructionist who once
said Civil Rights are “make believe” and declared that since the Maryland General
Assembly has passed laws that “violate God’s law,” it is “no longer a valid legislative
body” and as a result, none of its passed legislation is “legally valid and legally
enforceable.”
309
He won the County Council seat of Anne Arundel County, Maryland.
5. Tom Cotton: He alleged drug cartels and ISIS are in cahoots and are expanding to
human trafficking and plotting to attack American boarders: “Groups like the Islamic
State collaborate with drug cartels in Mexico who have clearly shown they’re willing
to expand outside the drug trade into human trafficking and potentially even
terrorism. They could infiltrate our defenseless border and attack us right here in
places like Arkansas.”
310
He won the U.S. Senate seat in Arkansas by eight points.
6. David Perdue: He ran aggressively as a job creator, despite bluntly admitting
Pillowtex Corp., Kurt Salman Associates, Sara Lee and Gitano hired him specifically
to outsource jobs to numerous countries in Asia and Africa.
311
He won the U.S.
Senate seat in Georgia by nearly eight points.
7. Michael Grimm: A former FBI agent currently facing a 20-count indictment charge
stemming from his Manhattan health restaurant “Healthalicious.” He has pleaded
guilty to tax evasion, and federal fraud, among others. He hired illegal immigrants
and paid them in cash to conceal pay roll taxes and $1 million worth of receipts from
the IRS.
312
He also threatened to throw a reporter off a balcony after being asked
about the origins of his campaign funding.
313
Grimm won New York’s 11
th
District by
a whopping 13 points.

308
Christopher Cousins. "LePage's Efforts to Remove Child Labor Barriers to Continue in January."
Bangor Daily News. December 2, 2013. Accessed December 17, 2015.
http://bangordailynews.com/2013/12/02/politics/lepages-efforts-to-remove-child-labor-barriers-to-
continue-in-january/.
309
Peter Montgomery. "Christian Reconstructionist And Southern Secessionist Michael Peroutka Leading
In GOP Primary." Right Wing Watch. June 25, 2014. Accessed December 17, 2015.
http://www.rightwingwatch.org/content/christian-reconstructionist-and-southern-secessionist-michael-
peroutka-leading-gop-primary.
310
Greg Sargent. "Tom Cotton: Terrorists Collaborating with Mexican Drug Cartels to Infiltrate Arkansas."
Washington Post. October 7, 2014. Accessed December 17, 2015.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2014/10/07/tom-cotton-terrorists-collaborating-with-
mexican-drug-cartels-to-infiltrate-arkansas/.
311
Manu Raju and John Bresnahan. "Perdue: 'I Spent Most of My Career' Outsourcing." POLITICO.
October 3, 2014. Accessed December 17, 2015. http://www.politico.com/story/2014/10/david-perdue-
georgia-senate-race-2014-111589.
312
Wesley Lowery. "We Read the Michael Grimm Indictment so You Don’t Have to." Washington Post.
April 28, 2014. Accessed December 17, 2015. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-
fix/wp/2014/04/28/we-read-the-michael-grimm-indictment-so-you-dont-have-to/.
313
Aaron Blake. "Rep. Michael Grimm (R-N.Y.) Threatens Reporter: ‘I’ll Break You in Half’."
Washington Post. January 29, 2014. Accessed December 20, 2015.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2014/01/29/rep-michael-grimm-r-n-y-reportedly-
threatens-journalist/.

103.
8. Rick Scott: A principle owner of Solantic, a drug testing company, who ran for
governor with a platform of mandatory drug testing for people seeking welfare.
314
He
was re-elected as Florida’s governor by a slim margin.
9. Mike Bost: The Illinois state representative known for throwing emotional temper
tantrums in the state legislature, was arrested in 1986 for driving up to his neighbor’s
front yard and shooting a beagle with his handgun.
315
Bost won Illinois’s 12
th
District
by over 11 points.
10. Gordon Klingenschmitt: A proud, flamboyant exorcist who lambasts homosexuality
and performs on-air exorcisms for his television show. In his book, he claimed
President Obama is possessed by “demonic spirits” of “death,” “paganism,” and
“homosexual lust.”
316
He won a seat in the Colorado House of Representatives with
70 percent of the vote.
11. Scott DeJarlais: A physician who ran as a pro-life, family values candidate. He once
pulled a gun on his first wife during an argument, prescribed pills to a patient white in
a relationship, had multiple affairs (he told one of his mistresses to get an abortion),
and told his then-wife to get two abortions.
317
He managed to win re-election
Tennessee’s 4
th
Congressional District by 23 points.

The fact that Democrats lost to these candidates with serious deficiencies shows
how sorry of a state their communications and campaigning is in. In addition to their
candidate selection and promotion, Democrats also boggle broadcasting their policies.
The rollout of Obamacare in 2012 is the most notable example. While public
outcry was focused on the technology failures, equally harsh criticism has been directed
at the insurance cancellation letters, the lack of accountability, and the lack of leadership
on the part of the president, providing the Republicans plenty of ammunition.
318
While
spinning the spectacular failure of the website rollout, and that the people it was intended

314
Kris Hundley. "Gov. Rick Scott, Solantic and Conflict of Interest: What's the Deal?" Tampa Bay Times.
April 1, 2011. Accessed December 17, 2015. http://www.tampabay.com/news/business/gov-rick-scott-
solantic-and-conflict-of-interest-whats-the-deal/1161158.
315
Michael McAuliff. "Raging GOP Candidate Mike Bost's Past Includes Dog Killing And Mysterious
Stolen Gun." The Huffington Post. September 26, 2014. Accessed December 17, 2015.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/09/26/mike-post-police-records_n_5890554.html.
316
Mark Stern. "Gays Harbor Demons and Wear Diapers. Meet the Craziest Anti-Gay Legislator in
America. ." Slate. November 6, 2014. Accessed December 17, 2015.
http://www.slate.com/blogs/outward/2014/11/06/gordon_klingenschmitt_of_colorado_is_the_craziest_anti
_gay_legislator_in.html.
317
Chas Sisk. "The Biggest Hypocrite in Congress?" POLITICO Magazine. August 5, 2014. Accessed
December 17, 2015. http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2014/08/scott-desjarlais-reelection-110028.
318
Kieth Zakheim. "Communications Lessons from the Obamacare Rollout." Beckerman PR. December 3,
2013. Accessed December 28, 2015. http://www.beckermanpr.com/communications-lessons-from-the-
obamacare-rollout/.

104.
to help were the biggest victims of this ineptitude, is a daunting task for even the most
adept PR experts, there are communications measures that could have mitigated the
backlash.
319

Managing expectations: In the midst of the current circus tour of contemporary
political climate, passing the largest social program since LBJ’s “Great Society,” required
a message of strength and certainty of success.
320
While this placed Obama in a tough
situation of teetering idealism and realism, rhetorical and strategic options were available
to allot the President more time to successfully rollout this monumental health care
overhaul.
Keith Zakheim of Beckerman PR recommends:

“Beta versions and testing are a normative stage in the development of any
technology. It is how the private sector does business. In its rush to fulfill a
campaign promise, the White House created self-imposed deadlines that were
unrealistic. From a communications and business perspective, being upfront with
Americans about the Herculean nature of implementing the Affordable Care Act
and asking for patience while rolling out a beta program among a test population
of maybe 10,000 of the most desperate health insurance cases from various
regions over six months. Americans are understanding and forgiving as long as
they feel they are not being misled. All of this, however, would have had to be
communicated months before the rollout. In the aftermath of the disaster, it would
have been too little, too late.”
321

Accountability: As thousands of people tried to log on and purchase insurance,
glitches and failures began to mount, and the inefficiency of HealthCare.gov became
apparent. People began to enroll on October 1, 2012 and began noticing defects in the
website.
322
It took the Obama Administration a full month to accept responsibility for this

319
Zakheim, “Communications Lessons.”
320
Zakheim, “Communications Lessons.”
321
Zakheim, “Communications Lessons.”
322
Patrick Mortiere. "Timeline of Botched ObamaCare Rollout." The Hill. November 15, 2013. Accessed
December 16, 2015. http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/190485-timeline-of-botched-
implementation-of-obamacare.

105.
fiasco – and it was Secretary of Human and Health Services, Kathleen Sibelius, not the
President, who acknowledged this blooper.
323
Obama waited another full week to offer a
formal apology to the American people. Zakheim said:
“People will not accept assurances that a crisis will be fixed until they are assured
that someone has accepted responsibility. It’s communications 101. For a full
month, the Obama administration tried to minimize the problems, despite it being
evident to everyone that the failures were not technical but systemic.”
324

Failure to Deliver on Initial Promises: Before initiating this healthcare reform,
Obama promised Americans they could keep their current healthcare plan if they were
satisfied with it.
325
Unfortunately, Obamacare pushed young, healthy people who were
happy with their existing coverage onto one of the exchange plans, in order to replace
older customers, or those with preexisting conditions, in order to significantly lower
costs.
326
These plans were bare-bone and only covered catastrophic incidents, but
Obamacare pressured insurance companies to stop offering these plans in favor of more
comprehensive ones.
327
Whether it was political pressure or hopeful, but misguided,
optimism, Obama sought to promise millions of Americans they could retain their
coverage. As they discovered this was untrue, considerable backlash ensued from
angered Americans, the Republicans and conservative media.
“My advice to President Obama would have been to substitute words like
‘guarantee,’ ‘promise,’ ‘assured,’ and ‘definite’ with, ‘We will do our best,’
‘advocate,’ ‘push,’ or ‘urge.’ Unless a promise can be kept with 100 percent
certainty, it is better to hedge a little than to be accused of lying. Obamacare was
going to be a tough sell in any circumstance. Half of the American people think
it’s a good idea while the other half opposes it. In this environment, the president
should have: owned the issue by managing expectations from the outset; accepted

323
Charlotte Alter. "Sebelius Owns Up to Botched Obamacare Rollout." Time. April 14, 2014. Accessed
December 16, 2015. http://time.com/61395/kathleen-sebelius-obamacare-rollout/.
324
Zakheim, “Communications Lessons.”
325
Mortiere, “Timeline of Botched ObamaCare.”
326
Zakheim, “Communications Lessons.”
327
Alter, “Sebelius Owns Up.”

106.
responsibility in the immediate aftermath of the failed rollout; and been more
circumspect in how he initially sold the program to both supporters and
skeptics.”
328

The Republicans and right-wing media bashed this rollout, despite its subsequent
success after its turbulent beginnings. Nevertheless, this, among the Southern border and
Ebola crises, damaged the Democrat’s image heading into the 2014, and they didn’t fight
to recover it. Rather, they ran away from the issue instead of defending its achievements.
As leery memories from the rollout were omnipresent during the Midterms, many
Democratic candidates retreated from Obamacare, despite polls showing “voters love
popular provisions calling for mandatory coverage for maternity care and extending
coverage for young people up to age 26 to stay on their parents’ health insurance
policies.”
329
Meanwhile, at the time, figures from the Congressional Budget Office
showed “Obamacare will cost about $5 billion less to implement in 2014 than originally
estimated.”
330
Rather than cowering from the Obama Administration’s hallmark
achievement, the following are talking points the Democrats could’ve used during the to
celebrate its, and the party’s, accomplishments:
331

• 67,000 people who had pre-existing conditions are now covered.
• 105 million Americans no longer have a lifetime cap on their insurance.
• 3.1 million young adults are now covered under their parent’s plan until they’re
26 years old.
• 17,000 people in states with governors who refuse to expand Medicaid under
Obamacare are expected to die.
• 45,000 annual deaths under the previous health care system because they had no
access to basic health care.
• The Republicans tried to repeal Obamacare 54 times.

328
Zakheim, “Communications Lessons.”
329
Halimah Abdullah, "Why Are Some Democrats Running from Obamacare?" CNN. April 22, 2014.
Accessed December 16, 2015. http://www.cnn.com/2014/04/18/politics/democrats-running-from-
obamacare/.
330
Abdullah, “Why Are Some Democrats Running.”
331
Kyle Kulinski. "Dems Suck At Messaging, Here's How You Do It." YouTube. April 1, 2014. Accessed
March 13, 2016. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Zxf5oezU7s.

107.

Lastly, and most importantly, the Democrats lack a strong brand. Robert M.
Entmann from the Brookings Institute analyzed a total of 38,812 Republican elite, 29,843
Democratic elite, and 13,561 partisan leaning journalist passages from transcripts of
ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN, and Fox Sunday morning news talk shows like “Meet the Press”
and “Face the Nation,” spanning every program for 6 years (2009-15). He notes:
332

“The Republicans proudly brandished their ideological label conservative, using it
11 times more often than Democrats used liberal or progressive. The GOP
actually used liberal nearly four times more often than Democrats, applying it as a
pejorative against them. This finding reveals Republican success at delegitimizing
the Democrats’ natural ideological label an ideological brand, Democrats gave
citizens little in the way of a cognitive or emotional hook on which to maintain a
mobilizing loyalty.

Democrats talked about the same top two issues the Republicans stressed: cutting
the federal budget deficit and creating jobs and growing the economy. By
emphasizing the deficit, Democrats promoted the Republican agenda!

Democrats frequently endorsed their own negative stereotype without promoting
a clear and positive image or brand identification. Republicans, on the other hand,
display more tenacity and less passivity, more concern with ordinary people and
human interest, use more concrete rather than abstract vocabulary, and utter
praising judgments more often. In other words, they present a more disciplined,
active, and attractive brand appeal than the Democrats.

The Republicans use a more emotional vocabulary and in particular, employ
negative emotional appeals and attacks significantly more than Democrats—the
sorts of attacks that alert the listener that they need to pay attention and monitor
the environment for solutions to heightened threat. … GOP leaders consistently
highlighted and attacked the threats embodied in Democrats’ allegedly failed
economic policies and Obamacare.

The second most common phrase in the rhetoric of both party’s elites was ‘the
American people.’ In the full corpus of Sunday news morning shows from
January 2009 through January 2015, those words appeared 1,417 times, in
approximately 39 percent of all show segments. But the party elites invoked ‘the
American people’ in significantly different ways. Republicans frequently
attributed their own policy views and frame to the ‘American people,’ casting

332
Entmann, Robert. "Framing and Party Competition: How Democrats Enabled the GOP’s Move to the
Uncompromising Right." Brookings Institute. December 1, 2015. Accessed December 14, 2015.
http://www.brookings.edu/research/papers/2015/12/03-framing-party-competition-entman.

108.
themselves as the public’s faithful representatives while legitimizing their
preferences matching public opinion. Actually, polls show this is often inaccurate;
in general, surveys show more public support for Democratic policies, as
demonstrated in studies of Americans’ operational liberalism in contrast with their
ideological conservatism.

Republican voters have been educated via conservative media and the ideological
coherence of the GOP communication strategy itself into loyalty to a brand
closely identified with conservatism.”

Democratic strategist James Carville, who coined the resonant phrase, “It’s the
Economy, Stupid!” His work was instrumental in the success of Bill Clinton’s 1992
Presidential campaign. He sums up the Democratic Party’s problem with communication:
“The Democratic problem has always been the litany. If I go to a Democrat and
say, ‘You need to talk about energy independence,’ they’ll say, ‘You know, Jim,
that’s a great idea.’

So the next time they give a speech, they go, ‘As Democrats, we stand for raising
the minimum wage. We stand for a woman’s right to choose. We stand for fully
funded public education because the children are our most valuable assets. We
stand for more expansive health care coverage, internationalist foreign policy …
OH! And we stand for energy independence too!’ So, they just added to the litany.
Somebody hears that and says, ‘I don’t hear anything.’ As opposed to saying,
‘The first, second, third thing we’re going to do is we’re gonna get off foreign oil,
and switch from these hydrocarbons. And I’m gonna tell you what. To do that,
we’re gonna have more math and science teachers. We’re gonna expand
alternative fuel.’ Then you say something! They’re gonna say something, because
you tell a narrative.

Political communications is the only endeavor that you multiply by subtracting. I
have had an unsuccessful career trying to convince senior Democrats of that. I
have been singularly unsuccessful because the inclination of a Democrat is add it
to the litany. Why be for seven things when you can be for eight? … I’ve never
been successful in convincing people we need a contracting narrative instead of
an expanding litany.”
333

Americans, or at the very least, the Democratic base, support plenty of the DNC’s
and Democratic frontrunners Clinton’s and Sanders’s platforms – single payer health
care, reduced college tuition, LGBT rights, background checks on gun purchases,

333
"James Carville on the Democratic Party's Problems with Communication." YouTube. July 30, 2010.
Accessed March 13, 2016. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3G0La_XtHoA.

109.
marijuana legalization, tougher regulations on Wall Street, and criminal justice reform.
Additionally, the Democrats need to use these platforms to be more aggressive in
attacking the Republicans when the party doesn’t deliver on these issues and represent
the will of the American people. They just sheepishly let the GOP get away with
incompetence unscathed, and this hurts their Midterm performances.
In a nation where progressive populism is gaining traction and Americans are
becoming more culturally tolerant, why do voters elected officials who stand for the
opposite of these? The answer is simple: the Republicans are far more effective in
mobilizing their voters through an easily recognizable brand of standing for small
government, economic prosperity, and individualism.
Kate Maeder, a senior account executive at Storefront Political Media, a San
Francisco-based company that helps state, local and national candidates, elected officials
and nonprofit and labor organizations build campaigns and coalitions around the country,
compares Democratic and Republican communication tactics.
“Every candidate up and down the ballot has to appeal to the emotional side of the
voters. Democrats are terrible at that. Republicans, and Karl Rove, are geniuses at
tapping into the emotional brain. Democrats are not great at it. Candidates need to
tap into voters’ emotions, anxieties, and fears.

Generally, Democrats talk about policy and facts, because they think that’s what
persuades people. They think too much, they’re intellectuals. They think, ‘If we
just tell voters this fact, and this fact, of course they’ll be for us.’ That’s not really
how people vote. It’s emotional.”
334

A Democratic political consultant, who asked to remain anonymous, also spoke
about the Democratic Party’s communication problems.
“The Democrats have a communication problem and that spirals because it causes
disillusionment. Early on in the Obama Administration, they didn’t message their

334
Kate Maeder. "Interview with Kate Maeder." Telephone interview by author. November 20, 2015.

110.
health care reforms, or a lot of their early agenda, very well. They felt if they
could get policy done, it would take care of itself. It’s how government ought to
work, but unfortunately, it’s not how it actually works. That led to a lot of
electoral problems in 2010 and 2014, and the gridlock that followed.

Absolutely there’s a communication side to it, and it has to happen at a national
level. If people want Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders to legislate a lot of their
platforms, they don’t really understand why it will be structurally difficult for
them to accomplish their agendas. Let’s say Hillary Clinton gets elected
President, and in two years, she hasn’t managed to enact significant pieces of her
agenda, are people going to turn out and report to vote for Democrats because she
says she needs them to? Or, they could say, ‘Well, she hasn’t gotten anything
done anyway, why should we vote Democrat?’”
335

The Republicans have done an excellent job of branding themselves as the party
of the middle class and economic stewardship, despite their policies mainly benefitting
the rich, and a history of the U.S. economy faring much better under Democratic
leadership. The Republicans have established communicative dominance over the
Democrats through clear, consistent messaging that stirs fear, riles emotions, evokes a
strong sense of patriotism, and paints a vivid picture of conservative leadership.
Additionally, the Republicans have a series of buzzwords that generate instant mental
association and brand recognition for the party: “Small Government,” “Government is the
problem, not the solution,” “Tax cuts,” “Job growth,” “Free market capitalism,” “Strong
defense,” among others.
336
The Democrats, however, don’t have a narrative that vividly
depicts the general causes of America’s problems and offers an easily recognizable
solution to America’s most pressing woes defined by familiar slogans. The Republicans
are masterful in striking fear and anger into their base, pandering to their emotions. The
Republicans have also managed to demonize liberalism and their policies, enabling their

335
Democratic Political Consultant, "Interview with Democratic Consultant." Telephone interview by
author. November 20, 2015.
336
Entmann, "Framing and Party Competition."

111.
base to easily dismiss their opposition’s ideas. The Democrats need to echo this strategy
by appealing to issues voters care about.
Combined with a majority in the House and Senate, the Republicans can exercise
extraordinary power over the discourse and agenda of politics, stifling Obama’s agenda
and using voter resentment and apathy to fit within their narrative. As the federal
government remains anemic in solving our structural, deep-seeded economic woes, they
flip the script and point the finger at Obama. They say, “We told you government is the
problem.” The Democrats lack an effective counterbalance, which led the way for
resounding Republican Midterm victories in 2010 and 2014. Utilizing the anti-Obama
libertarian Tea Party Movement, the Republicans successfully added a mirror opposite
element to their party brand to neatly assimilate with their image of small government
and lower taxes. This was in full effect in the 2014 Midterms, and it continues to be the
central theme in their approach to governance.
A Stanford University study titled, “Creating and Destroying Party Brands,” notes
that since 2008:
“Republican legislators increasingly attempted to undermine the Democratic
Party’s brand to bolster the Republican Party’s brand. The Republican brand
became defined in its opposition to the Democratic Party’s policies and legislative
accomplishments. A major tenet of the Tea Party movement was an aversion to
government spending, with political activists on the right increasingly skeptical of
particularistic spending in districts.”
337

This has had profound implications on American national politics, as the
Republicans now dominate the policy agenda, the Democrats now undermine their brand

337
Craig Goodman, Justin Grimmer, David C.W. Parker, and Frances Zlotnick. "Creating and Destroying
Party Brands." Stanford University. May 6, 2015. Accessed January 4, 2016.
http://web.stanford.edu/~jgrimmer/destroy.pdf.

112.
while the Republicans promote theirs, and the GOP has positioned themselves to be
faithful representatives of the American people.
The Republicans possess a strong, coherent brand of small government, economic
independence, personal freedom and free market enterprise. This allows the party to be
closely associated with individual freedom and allows them to portray themselves as
economic connoisseurs, while the Democrats toil through an identity crisis and maladroit
self-expression. As a result, the Republicans have surmounted a powerful majority in
Congress, backed by their ability to mobilize a network of social and business
conservatives by appealing to their emotions. This has bolstered their already muscular
conservatism by allowing them to control the political itinerary and conversation.
The Democrats need to embrace a progressive, center-left populist platform and
explain it in clear, succinct messages that string together a narrative of America’s most
pressing issues and how they will fix them. Van Jones of CNN said at the 2015 Milken
Institute Global Conference, “Barack Obama is the Democratic Party’s pivot between
Bill Clinton and Elizabeth Warren.”
338
The centrist and liberal bases of the Democratic
Party aren’t nearly as fragmented as moderate Republicans and Tea Partiers. This is
evident in the primaries, as the Democratic base has largely flocked to either Hillary
Clinton or Bernie Sanders, while the Republicans began with 17 presidential hopefuls.
Creating a platform around reform, economic opportunity, and diversity that is relatable
to both the liberal and centrist factions of their base is key to the future electoral success
of this party.

338
"Global Conference 2015 Panel: American Politics: The 114th Congress and 2016 Presidential
Election." Milken Institute Global Conference 2015. April 27, 2015. Accessed March 16, 2016.
http://www.milkeninstitute.org/events/conferences/global-conference/global-conference-2015/panel-
detail/5490.

113.
3. WEAK SUPPORT AMONGST WORKING-CLASS WHITE VOTERS / RURAL
COUNTIES
The Republicans receive considerable flak for their deficits among young and
minority voters, but the Democrat’s continual struggle among working-class white voters
was on full display in 2014. Their vulnerability is a gaping one as well: Republicans won
white voters without a college degree by 30 points, 64 to 34 percent, equaling the margin
in the wave election of 2010.
339
Support among working-class white voters for Obama
has dropped eight points since 2010.
340

Although white working-class voters are on a decline, and are being offset by
college-educated white voters, women, and Millennials that are more amicable to
Democrats, they still present a formidable voting cohort. Liberal commentator Andrew
Levison, in his book The White Working Class Today, finds:
“The bottom line result is simple: close to half of white men and 35-40 percent of
white women in the labor force are still essentially ‘working class.’ Their
occupations are basically blue collar rather than white collar and their earnings
fall far below their white-collar counterparts.

In one respect, this seems a new and startling conclusion. In another sense,
however, it is something most people really suspected all along. The data that has
been presented here dramatically illustrates that in the real world white blue-collar
workers are a far more important social group than is generally recognized. They
are not the desperate and jobless workers who ‘shaped up’ in front of the factory
gates every day to beg for work as factory workers did during the great
depression. Many make decent money and vast numbers work as small
independent contractors rather than hired employees. Nor do most working class
men still talk or act like the inarticulate, hulking laborers portrayed by Marlon
Brando in the 1950’s and Sylvester Stallone in the 1970’s. But they are united by
sociological traits and cultural values that define many aspects of their social
identity. Unlike the affluent or highly educated they see themselves as “real
Americans” who are ‘just getting by.’ They are ‘hard-working,’ ‘practical,’ and

339
Jonathan Topaz. "What We Learned about the American Voter in 2014." POLITICO. December 31,
2015. Accessed December 28, 2015. http://www.politico.com/story/2014/12/2014-american-voter-
elections-113883.
340
Topaz, “What We Learned about.”

114.
‘realistic.’ They believe in ‘old-fashioned traditional values,’ and trust in
‘character’ and real-world experience rather than advanced education. They rely
on ‘common sense,’ not abstract theories. These characteristics have not basically
changed since the 1950’s when these workers considered themselves good
Democrats and they remain important determinants of their political outlook
today.”
341

Some Democratic campaign experts have attributed their struggles to their
engrossment of the Affordable Care Act and the environment over a platform that
prioritizes wages and other “pocketbook” issues. “Democrats have chosen to focus on
issues that the liberal base of the party really likes, but the working-class person in West
Virginia or Arkansas or Louisiana or Alaska doesn’t necessarily identify with,” said
political analyst Charlie Cook.
342
Republicans captured previously Democratic-held
Senate seats in those states. Cook argues Democrats are a “marginalized party” across
much of the country. Democratic Representative Dan Glickman of Kansas added, “This
is more than just a bad year for Democrats. The challenge that the Democratic Party has
in parts of the country appears to be even more formidable than it was two years ago.
Democrats really gave up on small towns and exurban America.”
343

Identity politics also come into play: white non-college voters perceive the
Democrats to care more about women and minorities than their needs. The liberal
economic reforms of 1960s — Medicare in particular — was beneficiary to white
working-class families throughout the 1970s and ’80s, even as the group decisively left
the Democrats in droves to join the Reagan Revolution. Some historians proximate the
Democratic Party’s affiliation with African-Americans (an emerging trend since the New

341
Andrew Levison. The White Working Class Today: Who They Are, How They Think and How
Progressives Can Regain Their Support (Washington D.C.: Democratic Strategist Press, 2013), 81.
342
Topaz, “What We Learned.”
343
Topaz, “What We Learned.”

115.
Deal), who have became stereotyped with urban disorder and welfare since the riots of
the late ‘60s and 70s.
Excerpts from the Kerner Report, an 11-member National Advisory Commission
on Civil Disorders in July 1967, formed by President Lyndon Johnson to investigate the
underlying causes of urban riots in 1964, noted that decades of deprivation led to
systemic inequality, which was motivation of African-American revolts across over 100
American cities.
344
Whites became bewildered and infuriated with liberals for defending
these rioting communities and pushing anti-poverty programs to alleviate their
troublesome socio-economic conditions. Black incomes rose while white incomes
continued to stagnate or even fall.
The working-class whites collectively asked themselves a rhetorical question:
“Why was the government spending our tax dollars on them, when they destroy their
neighborhoods and refuse to work, and we’re losing our jobs and our
homes?”
345
Historian Rick Perlstein, encapsulates this sentiment in his book
“Nixonland,” with a comment from a white construction worker directed at George
McGovern: “They’re payin’ people who are on welfare today doin’ nothin’! They’re
laughin’ at our society! And we’re all hardworkin’ people and we’re gettin’ laughed at
for workin’ every day!”
346

344
"Our Nation Is Moving Toward Two Societies, One Black, One White--Separate and Unequal":
Excerpts from the Kerner Report." American Social History Project. 1967. Accessed December 28, 2015.
http://historymatters.gmu.edu/d/6545/.
345
Jamelle Bouie. "Why Democrats Can’t Win Over White Working-Class Voters." Slate. November 14,
2014. Accessed December 28, 2015.
http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2014/11/democrats_can_t_win_white_working_cl
ass_voters_the_party_is_too_closely.html.
346
Rick Perlstein. Nixonland: The Rise of a President and the Fracturing of America (New York: Scribner,
2008) 734.

116.
Following World War II, the federal government built suburbs and schools for the
white middle class and segregated housing projects and cities for the white working-
class. This, either purposefully or unintentionally, separated white from black
Americans:
347

“The civil rights revolution brought blacks and black demands to their doorsteps,
and for the white working class — which couldn’t just leave for the suburbs — it
fueled a backlash. But part of it was something broader. After all, there wasn’t a
backlash to government programs writ large. Then, as now, working-class whites
are ardent supporters of Social Security and Medicare. But to them, our retirement
programs came with an implicit social contract: If you work and contribute to
society, society will care for you into your old age. By contrast, you didn’t have to
work to benefit from anti-poverty programs, in fact, you could riot and still
receive government benefits. To these whites, the New Deal and its successor
programs rewarded self-reliance and independence. The War on Poverty didn’t.
And they hated it.”
348

Republican politicians were quick to use race baiting to gain an electoral
advantage. Richard Nixon ran on resentment to black demands for equality while Ronald
Reagan used racial stereotypes to fuel anti-welfare attitudes.
349
These grievances
continue, perhaps it has gotten worse, during the Great Recession. Mitt Romney ran a
series of ads intended for Ohio and Pennsylvania, which contain a large population of
white working-class voters, that attacked President Obama for “gutting welfare” and
“cutting checks” to people who wouldn’t work.
350
“For as much as this was plainly racial
— welfare is still associated with blacks in the public mind — it also reflected a genuine
frustration with the shape of the world.”
351
The reality is, working-class whites are
economically and geographically close to the poor. Even though tax rates for middle and

347
Ta-Nehisi Coates. "The Case for Reparations." The Atlantic. May 21, 2014. Accessed December 28,
2015. http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2014/06/the-case-for-reparations/361631/.
348
Bouie, “Why Democrats Can’t Win.”
349
Coates, "The Case for Reparations."
350
Arthur Delaney. "Mitt Romney Welfare Ad Repeats False Claim." The Huffington Post. August 8, 2012.
Accessed December 28, 2015. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/08/20/mitt-romney-welfare-
ad_n_1810134.html.
351
Bouie, “Why Democrats Can’t Win.”

117.
lower-class Americans are relatively low, and anti-poverty programs constitute a small
fraction of the federal budget, they believe they pay taxes but don’t receive any benefits.
Kevin Drum of Mother Jones notes the generalized white working-class
perception of the poor is characterized as,
“…folks next door who don’t do a lick of work but somehow keep getting
government checks paid for by their tax dollars. It’s pointless to argue that this
perception is wrong. Maybe it is, maybe it’s not. But it’s there. And although it’s
bound up with plenty of other grievances — many of them frankly racial, but also
cultural, religious, and geographic — at its core you have a group of people who
are struggling and need help, but instead feel like they simply get taxed and taxed
for the benefit of someone else. Always someone else. If this were you, you
wouldn’t vote for Democrats either.”
352

Economic insecurity, combined with the perception that big government hasn’t
stood up for middle-class Americans, are other factors contributing with white working-
class dissatisfaction with the Democrats. This striking racial disconnect persists today. In
the midst of a struggling economy under the Obama Administration, where the middle
class is shrinking and much of newly generated income is funneled to the top 1 percent,
white people are more pessimistic than minorities about their future economic prospects.
When the Pew Research Center asked in 2012 whether they expected their children to
enjoy a better standard of living, 56 percent of black and Latino respondents said yes, but
only 41 percent of whites were optimistic.
353
The LA Times’ Doyle McManus and Salon’s
Sean McElwee note white workers without college degrees are the most jaded about their
economic future and out of all working class citizens, white working-class voters hold the

352
Kevin Drum. "Can We Talk? Here's Why the White Working Class Hates Democrats." Mother Jones.
November 13, 2014. Accessed December 28, 2015. http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2014/11/can-
we-talk-heres-why-white-working-class-hates-democrats.
353
Doyle McManus. "Democrats' Hunt for the White Working-class Male Voter." Los Angeles Times. April
18, 2015. Accessed December 28, 2015. http://www.latimes.com/opinion/op-ed/la-oe-0419-mcmanus-
whites-20150419-column.html.

118.
most negative views of the Democratic Party.
354

355
Since their job prospects have been
worsening for decades, this seems fitting.
This discernment is supported by broader contemporary academic research:
Ilyana Kuziemko, an economics professor at Princeton University, and Ebonya
Washington, an economics professor at Yale University, co-authored “Why did the
Democrats Lose the South? Bringing New Data to an Old Debate.” This paper, published
in the National Bureau of Economic Research, finds Democratic support among
conservative working-class whites sharply declined between 1958 and 2000, most
notably after President John F. Kennedy introduced Civil Rights legislation in 1963.
356

Princeton University economics professor, Larry Bartels published a paper in the
Quarterly Review of Political Science, which found white working-class voters identify
closely with the Republican Party on economic issues, and cites this as a major reason
why this cohort has drifted away from the Democrats over the past few decades.
357
Martin
Gilens, author of “Why Americans Hate Welfare,” notes in his book that opposition to
welfare is driven by a “complex mixture of cynicism and compassion; misinformed and
racially charged, they nevertheless reflect both a distrust of welfare recipients and a
desire to do more to help the ‘deserving’ poor.”
358
In other words, white anti-poverty
attitudes are racially driven towards blacks. In their book, “Race and the Decline of Class

354
McManus, “Democrats’ Hunt for the White.”
355
Sean McElewee. "The Truth about the White Working Class: Why It’s Really Allergic to Voting for
Democrats." Salon. November 29, 2015. Accessed December 28, 2015.
http://www.salon.com/2015/11/29/the_truth_about_the_white_working_class_why_its_really_allergic_to_
voting_for_democrats/.
356
Ilyana Kuziemko and Ebonya Washington. "Why Did the Democrats Lose the South? Bringing New
Data to an Old Debate," National Bureau of Economic Research (2015): 9-11, accessed January 8, 2016.
http://politics.as.nyu.edu/docs/IO/38167/Washington_Paper.pdf.
357
Larry Bartels, “Review: What’s the Matter with What’s the Matter with Kansas?,” Quarterly Journal of
Political Science 1 (2006): 213.
358
Martin Gilens, Why Americans Hate Welfare: Race, Media, and the Politics of Antipoverty Policy
(Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1999), 61.

119.
in American Politics,” Robert Huckfeldt’s and Carol Weitzel Kohfeld’s research shows
the more a state-level Democratic Party relies on black votes, the less likely low-income
whites in the states were to vote Democratic.
359
Ian Haney-Lopez argues in his book,
“Dog Whistle Politics,” Republican politicians and plutocrats, beginning with Reagan,
Nixon and George Wallace, have consciously hyped racial tensions and animosity to peel
white votes away from the Democratic Party.
360

Noting working-class white recalcitrance of voting for Obama in 2012, Tom
Edsall ignited the discussion of the Democrat’s persisting struggle with this group in his
New York Times op-ed, “How Democrats Can Compete for the Working Class.” He
insisted:
“Democratic prospects do not seem so gloomy. There was a wide disparity in
Obama’s performance among with working class voters in different sections of the
country: awful in the South and significantly better in much of the rest of the
country. This suggests that a targeted regional strategy could strengthen the
Democratic Party’s chances with what was once its core constituency.”
361

A number of commentators endorsed this interpretation of the 2012 election results;
Democrats could obtain sufficient white working class support to win future elections by
essentially writing off the South and putting all their efforts into maximizing their support
among white working people in other areas of the country. For example, Drum, argued,
“Democrats in general and Obama in particular don’t really have a huge ‘white working
class’ problem. What they have is a huge Southern problem. … It’s only in the South that

359
Robert R. Huckfeldt, and C. W. Kohfeld. Race and the Decline of Class in American Politics, (Urbana:
University of Illinois Press, 1989): 87.
360
Ian Haney-Lopez, Dog Whistle Politics: How Coded Racial Appeals Have Reinvented Racism and
Wrecked the Middle Class, (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2013): 48.
361
Thomas Edsall. "How Democrats Can Compete for the White Working Class." The New York Times.
March 11, 2014. Accessed December 28, 2015. http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/12/opinion/edsall-how-
democrats-can-compete-for-the-white-working-class.html?_r=0.

120.
the white working class vote is overwhelmingly Republican, and this is what skews the
national results.”
362

This mindset is shortsighted for two reasons: First, it assumes white working-class
animosity toward the Democrats is exclusive to a unique conservative culture in the South.
Secondly, breaking the United States into four geographic subsets (Northeast, Central,
South, and West) is a gross oversimplification of our nation’s underlying cultural and
political divisions.
The National Committee for an Effective Congress developed regional categories
that magnify these red-blue political partitions. Their portrayal of American partisan
schisms features the more pro-Democratic coastal regions, large metropolitan areas and
“rust belt” or former industrial heartland, and on the other hand, the more pro-Republican
Red States; not only in the South, but also the Southwest, rural Midwest, and far
West/Mountain West. The New Republic’s Andrew Levison uses Democracy Corps’s voter
data and sorts electoral results into these regions.
363
He found Obama’s problems weren’t
exclusive to the South, but rather, diffused into other regions. White working-class support
for Obama was at or below 30-31 percent in the South, but also large areas of the country
including the “rural heartland” of the Midwest and far West, the Mountain West and the
Southwest.
364

“Every political campaign manager knows that in the practical world of political
campaigns, white working class people in places like Wichita, Yuma, or Sioux City
are not strikingly more ‘pro-Democratic’ than white working class people in Baton
Rouge, Augusta, or Memphis. If the notion that ‘the problem is just the South’ fails
to properly account for the real regional political divisions in America, however, it

362
Drum. “Can We Talk?”
363
Andrew Levison, "Democrats Have a White Working Class Problem—and Not Just in the South." New
Republic. August 5, 2014. Accessed December 28, 2015.
https://newrepublic.com/article/118960/democrats-white-working-class-problem-isnt-just-south.
364
Levison, “White Working Class Problem.”

121.
also fails to recognize the critical importance of another aspect of the political
divisions within the white working class: the substantial difference between the
more urban and less urban members of the group, regardless of the region of the
country.”
365

Since the 1970s, many industries moved from large industrial cities like Detroit,
Pittsburgh, Akron and Buffalo to smaller towns to duck unions and preside in a more
business friendly climate. Meanwhile, these white workers also relocated to the urban
fringe for lower housing costs and to swap the cosmopolitan urban culture for a more
“country” lifestyle. As of 2012, the Democratic Corps survey breaks down where white
Americans with less than a four-year college degree work and their support for Obama:
Figure 35: White Americans With Less than a Four-Year College Degree:
Where they Live & Their Support for Obama in 2012
366

Small towns, urban fringes and rural areas are now Republican strongholds.
Dismissing these areas and concentrating on more amicable metropolitan areas to garner
Electoral College support may prove fruitful in Presidential elections, but this strategy
will produce scattershot results in Midterm elections, and a Democratic majority in
Congress and Governorships will be inconsistent, if not unsustainable.

365
Levison, “White Working Class Problem.”
366
Levison, “White Working Class Problem.”

122.

The Washington Times used information from the U.S. Election Atlas to break
down county preferences in Presidential Elections from 2000-2012:
Figure 36: Presidential Preference (2000-2012)
367

Figure 37: The 2000-2012 Electoral Split, By the Numbers
368

367
Phillip Bump. "The Democrats’ White-voter Problem — in 2 Maps." Washington Post. April 24, 2015.
Accessed March 13, 2016. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2015/04/24/the-democrats-
problem-with-white-voters-in-2-maps/.
368
Bump, “The Democrats’ White-voter Problem.”

123.

The Wall Street Journal produced a map that tracked county results in both Bill
Clinton’s 1996 victory and Barack Obama’s 2012 victory.
369

Figure 38: Electoral Results by County (1996 & 2012)
370

369
Dante Chinni and Brian McGill. "1996 and 2012: Two Very Different Paths to Victory." Wall Street
Journal. April 23, 2015. Accessed March 13, 2016. http://graphics.wsj.com/clintonobama/.
370
Chinni and Brian McGill, “1996 and 2012.”

124.
Clinton relied much more heavily on rural white counties in 1996 while Barack
Obama consolidated Democratic advantages around diverse urban areas.
371
While it’s
unknown how much an African-American candidate or Clinton’s centrist economic
populism influenced this drastic shift in regional and demographic support, it does
illustrate the Democrat’s greatest strength on a national level is also a glaring weakness
on a Congressional level.
Figure 39: 95 Percent of Republican Districts are Majority
White
372

As their support is condensed to highly populated metropolitan areas, the
Republicans will enter Presidential races with an Electoral handicap. However, the
Democrats inability to penetrate rural areas, and the white working-class voters who
inhabit them, will be detrimental to consistently winning majorities in the House and
Senate. According to U.S. Census data, only 13 out of 234 Republican-held districts are
majority-minority (districts where white non-Hispanics make up less than 50 percent of

371
Chinni and Brian McGill, “1996 and 2012.”
372
Ingraham, “95% of Republican House Districts.”

125.
the population).
373
That’s about 5 percent of all Republican districts. In contrast, 49
percent of Democrat-held districts are majority-minority.
374
This places the Democrats on
a demographic tightrope. Obama’s support amongst white voters was very poor, but he
won the White House with historic turnout and support amongst minority voters. Can
Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders or potential candidates beyond this election inspire that
same level of enthusiasm?
The Democrats really have little room for error in recruiting their coalition to
arrive at the voting booths in 2016. Given the anti-immigrant rhetoric spewed from the
Republican candidates in their respective primary, it’s somewhat obvious that select GOP
candidates are using economic struggles to create racial resentment in order to motivate
their white base to turn out in higher numbers in 2016. While this provides Obama’s
successor a presumed advantage with a growing minority base for the Presidential
election, they must do better with white working-class voters for both Congressional and
Gubernatorial elections. The Republicans have already acknowledged their demographic
pitfalls in the “Growth and Opportunity Project,” and while these strategies haven’t been
implemented on a national level, they drafted more moderate candidates to run for
vulnerable seats in the 2014 Midterms and found resounding success. While other
political and geographic factors contributed to the GOP’s monumental victories, the
bottom line is, if Republicans continue to retain white voters and loosen up their social
stances to make modest gains among minority voters, the Democrats could be in serious
trouble.

373
Christopher Ingraham. "95% of Republican House Districts Are Majority-white." Washington Post.
August 12, 2014. Accessed March 13, 2016.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2014/08/12/95-of-republican-house-districts-are-
majority-white/.
374
Ingraham, “95% of Republican House Districts.”

126.
OPPORTUNITIES

1. PUSHING TO REGISTER TO MOBILIZE MORE VOTERS WITHIN THEIR
COALITION WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEMOCRATS IN DOWN-
BALLOT ELECTIONS
Despite the millions of dollars the Democrats poured into turnout machines, their
efforts were made in vein as their core constituencies failed to arrive at the voting booths.
“Turnout proved to be lower than previous years in all but 10 states, but the
reasons for that decline are many: Some states lacked competitive races to draw
voters to the polls; others cut polling hours or reduced early voting periods. And,
in some states, new voter ID laws could have kept some voters away.”
375

Public opinion polls such as the one released by Gallup in November 2014
suggested that fewer Americans cared about this election than in previous years.
376

Figure 40: Percent Voting by Family Income Bracket (2012 & 2014)
377

375
Joanna S. Kao, Steve Melendez, Alex Newman, and Lam Thuy Vo. "Actual Election Turnout Far Lower
than Reported." Aljazeera America. November 5, 2014. Accessed March 13, 2016.
http://america.aljazeera.com/blogs/scrutineer/2014/11/5/why-the-real-
electionturnoutwasfarlowerthanreported.html#alabama.
376
Lydia Saad. "Voters, Especially Independents, Lack Interest in Election." Gallup. November 4, 2014.
Accessed March 13, 2016. http://www.gallup.com/poll/179147/voters-especially-independents-lack-
interest-election.aspx.
377
Sean McElwee. "Why Non-Voters Matter: A New Study Suggests That Increasing Turnout Could Have
Significant Ramifications for Policy." The Atlantic. September 15, 2015. Accessed November 21, 2015.
http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2015/09/why-non-voters-matter/405250/.

127.
“Census data on the 2014 Midterm elections quantifies some of these gaps. While
52 percent of those earning more than $150,000 voted, only 24 percent of those
earning less than $10,000 went to the polls. That divide is further magnified by
age. Among 18-24 year olds earning less than $30,000 turnout was 17 percent in
2014, but among those earning more than $150,000 and older than 65, the turnout
rate was nearly four times higher, at 65 percent. There were also racial gaps in
voter turnout. In 2014, 46 percent of white voters turned out to vote, compared to
40 percent of black voters, and just 27 percent of Asians and Latinos.”
378

Economist John Kenneth Galbraith once said, “If everybody in this country voted,
the Democrats would be in for the next 100 years.”
379
As outlandish as this claim may be,
there is some evidence to support his assertion.
Figure 41: Differences in Ideology Between Voters and Nonvoters
380

* Positive numbers indicate that nonvoters are more liberal than voters. (Source: Griffin and Newman
2005).

Jan Leighley and Jonathan Nagler conducted the study “Who Votes Now? And
Does It Matter?” in 2007, which found nonvoters to be more economically liberal than

378
McElwee, “Why Non-Voters Matter.”
379
Sean McElwee. "If Everyone Voted, Progressives Would Win." Aljazeera America. March 17, 2015.
Accessed March 13, 2016. http://america.aljazeera.com/opinions/2015/3/progressives-need-to-stop-
looking-for-a-hero.html.
380
McElwee, “Why Non-Voters Matter.”

128.
active voters.
381
Specifically, they preferred government health insurance, easier union
organizing and more federal spending on schools.
382
A 2012 Pew Research Center poll
shows the disparities in presidential preferences between voters and nonvoters: nonvoters
preferred Barack Obama to Mitt Romney by 59 percent to 24 percent, while likely voters
were split at 47 percent.
383
Nonvoters are far less likely to identify as Republican, and
voters tend to be more opposed to redistribution than nonvoters.
384
In a 2014 nationwide
study, Stockton College professor James Avery found a strong correlation between the
electorate’s class bias and the Gini coefficient, a commonly used measure of inequality;
the lower the turnout, the higher the class bias and the greater the support for economic
policies that contribute to wealth inequality.
385
In “Regular Voters, Marginal Voters and
the Electoral Effects of Turnout,” University of Chicago professor Anthony Fowler found
that marginal voters — those whose willingness to cast a ballot is affected by various
factors – support liberal candidates.
386
He examined gubernatorial elections that coincide
with a presidential election and midterms that align with midterm elections. He found:
• 68.2 percent of those who don’t turn out for midterm elections support
Democrats.
387

• 63.1 percent of the 34 million people who were registered with a party but did not
vote in the 2010 midterms supported Democrats.
388

• In gubernatorial elections that coincide with the presidential race “increase
turnout by 17.4 percentage points and the Democratic candidate’s vote share by
6.4 percentage points.”
389

381
Jan E. Leighley and Jonathan Nagler. "Who Votes Now? And Does It Matter?" New York University
(2007): 5.
382
Leighley and Nagler “Who Votes Now?,” 8.
383
"Nonvoters: Who They Are, What They Think." Pew Research Center. November 01, 2012. Accessed
January 8, 2016. http://www.people-press.org/2012/11/01/nonvoters-who-they-are-what-they-think/.
384
McElwee, “If Everyone Voted.”
385
McElwee, “If Everyone Voted.”
386
Anthony Fowler. "Regular Voters, Marginal Voters and the Electoral Effects of Turnout." Political
Science Research and Methods (2015): 205
387
Fowler, Ibid., 214.
388
Fowler, Ibid., 216.
389
Fowler, Ibid., 213.

129.

There are many reasons why people don’t vote, but research suggests that three
factors are particularly crucial: registration, unions, and parties.
Registration is a barrier that exists in the United States but not in any other
country in the developed world. The studies “The Effect of Registration Laws and
Education on U.S. Voter Turnout,”
390
“American Voter Turnout in Comparative
Perspective,”
391
and “The Introduction of Voter Registration and Its Effect on Turnout”

392
all conclude voter ID laws have dramatically reduced voter turnout since their
ratification. This effect primarily hurts the poor. The study “Voter Registration
Requirements, Voter Turnout, and Welfare Eligibility Policy: Class Bias Matters,” finds,
“states with restrictive voter registration laws are much more likely to be biased toward
upper-class turnout.”
393

Since Shelby County v. Holder, the 2013 Supreme Court case that eased the
process of the passage of restrictive voter ID laws, several states have enacted such
legislation. These restraints carry racially disparate impacts, as counties with large black
populations are less likely to have access to early voting.
394
Felon disenfranchisement has
also factored in declining voter turnout over the last few decades. The study, “Democratic
Contraction? Political Consequences of Felon Disenfranchisement in the United States,”
found felon disenfranchisement disproportionately reduces among potential voters of

390
Steven J. Rosenstone and Raymond E. Wolfinger. "The Effect of Registration Laws and Education on
U.S. Voter Turnout." The American Political Science Review (1978): 22.
391
Bingham G. Powell. "American Voter Turnout in Comparative Perspective." The American Political
Science Review (1986): 36.
392
Stephen Ansolabehere and David M. Konisky. "The Introduction of Voter Registration and Its Effect on
Turnout." Political Analysis (2005): 16.
393
James M. Avery and Mark Peffley. "Voter Registration Requirements, Voter Turnout, and Welfare
Eligibility Policy: Class Bias Matters." State Politics & Policy Quarterly (2005): 47.
394
McElwee, “Why Non-Voters Matter.”

130.
color and those with low-incomes.
395
Conversely, the study “Convenience Voting and
Turnout: Reassessing the Effects of Election Reforms” suggests easing access to voting
boosts turnout.
396

The decline in union influence is the second factor in depressing voter turnout. At
the pinnacle of their strength and membership, unions were instrumental in driving high
turnout rates amongst working-class Americans. Since the 1980s, unions have been
weakened, partially causing these numbers to slip.
In the study, “Union Membership and Political Participation in the United States”,
Jasmine Kerrissey and Evan Schofer find union membership helps spur different forms of
political activity, including voting, protesting, association membership, and others.
397

Less educated individuals tend to be prominent in union membership, and are otherwise
apolitical – busting unions only exacerbates their low levels of political participation.
398

As unions have declined in power and influence, turnout has dwindled amongst low- and
middle-class Americans. Since voting tends to be dominated by the wealthy, the gradual
dissipation of unions has tilted policy preferences and voter turnout toward the upper
echelon of income earners.
Finally, both the Democrats and Republicans have systematically failed to
mobilize low-income voters.
In their book “Mobilization, Participation, and Democracy in America,” political
scientists Steven J. Rosenstone and John Mark Hansen tracked voter turnout between the

395
Christopher Uggen, and Jeff Manza. "Democratic Contraction? Political Consequences of Felon
Disenfranchisement in the United States." American Sociological Review (2002): 778.
396
Michael P. McDonald, Enrijeta Shino, and Daniel A. Smith. "Convenience Voting and Turnout:
Reassessing the Effects of Election Reforms." University of Florida, (2015): 19.
397
Jasmine Kerrissey and Evan Schofer. "Union Membership and Political Participation in the United
States." Social Forces (2013): 902.
398
Kerrissey and Schofer, “Union Membership,” 903.

131.
1960s and 1980s, attributing half the decrease in turnout to each party displaying a
diminished effort in contacting low-income voters.
399
Between 1980 and 2004, the rate
the Democratic Party conducted outreach to upper-class voters increased nearly four-fold
– in fact, high-income Americans were almost three times more likely to be mobilized by
each party.
400
But when elections become more competitive, Democrats are forced to
mobilize low-income voters, thus, decreasing the wealth turnout gap.
401

Figure 42: Median Income at Different Levels of Political Participation
402

This low rate of turnout has policy implications as well, as unregistered or non-
voters are far more likely to support liberal economic policies than registered or
participating voters.
403
Given the racial, age, and income divide between the two – this
isn’t surprising. As the current Democratic Party coalition is currently experiencing

399
Steven J. Rosenstone and John Mark Hansen. Mobilization, Participation, and Democracy in America.
(New York: Macmillan Pub., 1993), 228.
400
McElwee, Sean. "Why Non-Voters Matter."
401
McElwee, Sean. "Why Non-Voters Matter."
402
McElwee, Sean. "Why Non-Voters Matter."
403
McElwee, Sean. "Why Non-Voters Matter."

132.
undertones of a progressive-populist movement in the midst of a lackluster Obama
Administration, this disparity in voting registration and turnout is rather problematic.
Figure 43: Net Support of Policy, Registered vs. Nonregistered
404

Changing the composition of the electorate is the easiest way to shift policy to the
left. As John B. Judis and Ruy Teixeira point out, what they call the “emerging
democratic majority” has always existed but just hasn’t voted. Democrats should
mobilize the marginalized progressive majority. Even if registering more voters doesn’t
necessarily guarantee Democratic victories, it will certainly force politicians to focus on
income inequality and government programs, both of which are more favorable to the
Democrats than the Republicans. If the party is serious about expanding its support, it
should make greater efforts to ensure more voters are registered and turn out to the polls.

404
McElwee, Sean. "Why Non-Voters Matter."

133.
2. DEVELOPING AND EFFECTIVELY COMMUNICATING A PROGRESSIVE
AGENDA CAN MOBIIZE A BASE INVIGORATED BY BARACK OBAMA AND
UNITE THE LIBERAL AND CENTRIST BRANCHES OF THE PARTY

The 2008 Presidential election arrived at a time of mounting debt caused by two
unpopular wars, the burst of a financial bubble brought by a housing collapse, and a
general wariness of “politics as usual.” America was faced with a stark ideological
contrast: this was a choice between a youthful, African-American who supports changing
the Washington culture with a progressive agenda or a self-described “foot soldier in the
Reagan Revolution” who personifies the Bush-era conservatism.
405
CBS’s Robert L.
Borosage and Katrina vanden Heuvel summarized the polarizing choices that faced
Americans heading into the 2008 Presidential election:
McCain, “is committed to the full Bush catastrophe: continued war in Iraq, more
tax cuts for the wealthiest, more corporate trade deals, more deregulation, more
hostility toward labor, more conservative social policies and reactionary judges.
Indeed, he’s Bush on steroids. McCain seeks not only to privatize Social Security
but also to unravel employer-based healthcare, leaving people to negotiate alone
with insurance companies liberated from regulation. His bellicose posturing on
Iran and Iraq is as disastrous as his pledge of impossibly deep cuts in domestic
programs. He embraces the corporate economic and trade agenda that has so
devastated the American middle class. If he is defeated, it will mark the end of the
Reagan era.

Obama clearly offers a change of course. His victory in itself will require
overcoming the racial fears that have so long divided this country. He carries a
reform agenda – largely driven by progressives – into the election: an end to the
occupation of Iraq, using the money squandered there to rebuild America;
affordable healthcare for all, paid for by raising taxes on the wealthy; a concerted
drive for energy independence, generating jobs while investing in renewable
energy and conservation. He is committed to empowering labor, to holding
corporations and banks more accountable and to challenging our trade policies. A
social liberal, his judicial appointees will keep the right from consolidating its
hold on the federal judiciary. Obama may not be a ‘movement’ progressive in the

405
Robert L. Borosage and Katrina Vanden Heuvel. "Progressives In The Obama Moment." CBS News.
August 15, 2008. Accessed January 12, 2016. http://www.cbsnews.com/news/progressives-in-the-obama-
moment-15-08-2008/.

134.
way that Reagan was a ‘movement’ conservative, and he may have disappointed
activists with his recent compromises, but make no mistake: his election will open
a new era of reform, the scope of which will depend – as Obama often says – on
independent progressive mobilization to keep the pressure on and overcome
entrenched interests.”
406

Despite a rocky first term, and the 2010 Midterm that resulted in a Democratic
House majority replaced with Republicans riding the momentum of an insurgent Tea
Party, Obama doubled down on his progressive rhetoric heading into his re-election. Wall
Street Journal’s Gerald F. Seib summarizes Obama’s second-term agenda as progressive
ideas with populist packaging:
“He wants government expenditures on infrastructure, both to match the
economic wiring being put in place by the Chinas of the world, and to create
middle-class jobs along the way. He wants education reforms that prepare middle-
class kids better for the 21
st
century economy. In his formulation, that means
expanded pre-K programs all around; secondary and post-high school education
that better connects workers to the jobs that businesses really need filled; and
college educations that the government manages to help reduce in cost, either
with more aid or more pressure to speed up acquisition of a degree and thereby
shrink its cost. He wants tax rates to go up for the wealthy to help pay for all this
— and also some kind of not-fully-defined break for the middle class so they can
better save for retirement.

And he pointedly wrapped into this economic vision his two other big domestic
initiatives, the health-care overhaul and immigration reform. Indeed, the whole
package is wrapped up in a new catch phrase that is an ode to the middle class:
It’s called growing the economy from ‘the middle out.’

The populist packaging pleases Democrats and rankles Republicans, predictably
enough. But on a deeper level, the president's presentation actually shines a light
on some more meaningful philosophical differences between the two parties. …
Republicans talk almost exclusively about economic growth; the president talks
about fair distribution of the nation’s wealth.”
407

406
Borosage and Heuvel, "Progressives In The Obama Moment."
407
Gerald F. Seib, "Obama's Second-Term Agenda: Progressive Ideas, Populist Packaging." Wall Street
Journal. July 25, 2013. Accessed January 12, 2016.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424127887323971204578627940606382774.

135.
Obama cruised to a resounding victory, handily beating Romney and his business-
friendly, social conservative platforms. However, despite Obama’s remarkable success in
running on progressive platforms and steering the national discussion towards
government assistance in helping the middle class, education reform, and providing
healthcare, some argue progressives are still a minor faction within the Democratic Party.
The Atlantic’s Molly Ball, in her article, “No, Liberals Don’t Control the
Democratic Party,” posits several reasons why the Democratic Party is still centrist. She
cites two Gallup trends from 2013, which reveals 43 percent of Democrats identity as
liberal and 36 percent, identify as moderate, while 70 percent of Republicans identify as
conservative and only 23 percent identify as moderate.
408
She states after 34 House
Democrats voted against healthcare reform in 2010, 30 of these anti-Obamacare
Democrats who sought re-election won their primaries.
409
She notes the two most
recognizable progressive icons, Bill de Blasio and Elizabeth Warren, hail from two very
liberal states and Warren ran unopposed.
Other centrist Democrats caution that progressive rhetoric can come at a price.
Gabe Horwitz, director of the economic program at the center-left think tank Third Way,
said a focus on liberal policies that forgot the middle class cost the party in 2014:
“Democrats had an economic message in the midterms that focused on things like giving
everyone a fair shot, income inequality, and you saw what happened. They need to move

408
Molly Ball. "No, Liberals Don't Control the Democratic Party." The Atlantic. February 7, 2014.
Accessed January 12, 2016. http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2014/02/no-liberals-dont-control-
the-democratic-party/283653/.
409
Ball, “Liberals Don’t Control Democratic Party.”

136.
the needle on the middle class.”
410
There is little doubt the centrists are still a very
powerful faction within the Democratic Party, and while the liberal/progressive bloc of
the Democrats don’t possess the inter-party clout the Tea Party carries within the GOP,
its growing influence can’t be denied and it’s long-term prospects shouldn’t be
disregarded. Liberal self-identification is the highest it’s been in 20 years, and issues held
dearly by progressive are emerging in the forefront of national discussion.
Progressive and liberal cliques within the Democratic Party are moving to raise
awareness of issues they prioritize, with the goal of nudging centrist candidates left while
generating broad interest in economic populism. The Warren-wing of the Democrats
pushed Obama to endorse a $10.10 minimum rage instead of his original proposal of
$9.
411
Last year, the Progressive Campaign Change Committee (PCCC), launched the
“Ready for Boldness,” a play on the “Ready for Hillary” efforts introduced to sway the
former Secretary of State to enter the presidential contest. Their goal is to push
presidential hopefuls to support issues like Wall Street reform and better pay for low-
income workers.
412
Adam Green, founder of the PCCC said, “It’s all part of the ‘rising
populist tide.’ What we are trying to do is create a bunch of incentives so that she and
others feel comfortable proposing big, bold, progressive populist ideas.”
413

The Working Families Party (WFP), a New York-based organization dedicated to
redistribution and social equality, was formed in 2012 to force Democrats — and the
country — to become more liberal by mobilizing the party base, changing the terms of

410
Andrew Rafferty. "Progressive Influence Remains Key Question for Democrats." NBC News. April 3,
2015. Accessed January 13, 2016. http://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/progressive-influence-remains-
key-question-democrats-n335271.
411
Ball, “Liberals Don’t Control Democratic Party.”
412
Ball, “Liberals Don’t Control Democratic Party.”
413
Molly Ball, "The Pugnacious, Relentless Progressive Party That Wants to Remake America." The
Atlantic. January 7, 2016. Accessed January 13, 2016.
http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/01/working-families-party/422949/.

137.
the debate, and taking out centrist incumbents in primaries.
414
The WFP was instrumental
in helping de Blasio climb to becoming a high-profile progressive and New York City’s
mayor. The party’s Chicago partner helped to force Mayor Rahm Emanuel into
Chicago’s first-ever mayoral runoff as he sought reelection last year.
415
It played a key
role in increasing the number of blacks on the six-member Ferguson, Missouri, city
council from one to three in the wake of that city’s police-brutality protests.
416
WFP-
supported candidates have defeated incumbent Democrats in legislative primaries in
Connecticut, New York, and Oregon, and party-supported candidates serve on city
councils from Hartford to Chicago.
417
The party has been instrumental in pushing issues
such as government-mandated paid sick leave and a $15 minimum wage to the forefront
of the national Democratic agenda.
418
Dan Cantor, executive director of the WFP, admits
the liberal faction still has room to grow before becoming a prominent influence, but it
has high aspirations. “Inside the Democratic Party, we’re not quite as powerful as the Tea
Party inside the Republican Party, but that's the ambition.”
419

“I would put it this way: In the battle between the Elizabeth Warren populist wing
of the party and the corporate wing of the party, the Elizabeth Warren wing is clearly
ascendant,” said Green. He has stated the group is focused on changing what Democratic
candidates talk about, rather than winning elections, “On the one hand, that's less

414
Ball, “The Pugnacious, Relentless Progressive Party.”
415
Ball, “Pugnacious, Relentless Progressive Party.”
416
Ball, “Pugnacious, Relentless Progressive Party.”
417
Ball, “Pugnacious, Relentless Progressive Party.”
418
Ball, “Pugnacious, Relentless Progressive Party.”
419
Ball, “Pugnacious, Relentless Progressive Party.”

138.
satisfying than a genuine progressive winning, but it shows that, in primaries, being
progressive matters.”
420

When the PCCC endorses an underdog primary candidate, Green said,
establishment competitors usually rush to rebrand themselves as “progressive,” a sign
that that’s what Democratic primary voters respond to. In a recent special congressional
election in Massachusetts, the PCCC hosted its first-ever debate, and all five candidates
attended and voiced support for liberal positions. The PCCC’s preferred candidate, Carl
Sciortino, was defeated by a blitz of ads that showed the winner, Katherine Clark, side-
by-side with Warren.
421
Even Blanche Lincoln, under pressure from Halter, tacked to the
left, successfully championing regulation of derivatives in the Dodd-Frank Wall Street
reform bill.
422

In the decade since Howard Dean rose as the left’s champion, the Democratic
Party has moved substantially to the left, argued Markos Moulitsas, the founder of Daily
Kos, “On everything from economic populism to marriage equality to gun control, the
Democratic Party has evolved in the right direction.” The party has also become more
dependent on small donors relative to corporate ones, he said, making it “a party that is
far more responsive to its grassroots than it has ever been before.”
Strategists and pundits who argue the Democrats should seek moderate or right-
leaning candidates to attract more Independent votes should take a closer look at the 2014
Midterms and seriously reconsider this trite campaign strategy that has produced
inconsistent results. In the Michigan gubernatorial, moderate Democrat Mark
Schauer lost by nearly four points to Republican Rick Snyder. Schauer based his

420
Ball, “Pugnacious, Relentless Progressive Party.”
421
Ball, “Pugnacious, Relentless Progressive Party.”
422
Ball, “Pugnacious, Relentless Progressive Party.”

139.
campaign strategy on convincing moderate swing voters to support him by making
promises like raising the minimum wage by a mere $1.85, which is $5.75 short of Fight
for 15’s demand for a $15 per hour living wage.
423
On the same ballot, with the same
electorate, progressive Democrat Gary Peters, who spoke at an Occupy Detroit rally
and supported legislation to prevent financial institutions from raising interest rates on
student loans, beat Republican Terry Lynn Land by 12 points for U.S. Senate.
424
Unlike
Schauer, Peters didn’t shy away from his values, as Election Day grew closer, pledging to
defend the Affordable Care Act and expand the social safety net. When faced with the
choice of a Democrat hedging as a Republican and a Republican, voters chose the latter.
When a progressive Democrat is pitted against a Republican, they choose the progressive.
It doesn’t seem that moderating his politics helped Schauer at all – in fact, Gary Peters
appealed more to Michigan voters simply staying true to his progressive values. When
Stephanie Chang, Kristy Pagan and Jon Hoadley pursued similar strategies and stood
their ground – Michigan voters rewarded them.
425

This development stretched beyond Michigan. Progressives like Al Franken and
Jeff Merkley easily won their elections. The national media ignored these contests from
the outset because polls showed they would not be competitive. Yet they are important
stories from the 2014 election: In both cases, progressive Democrats won decisively in
states where Republicans were recently elected to Congress. Even after six years of
boldly progressive votes in the Senate, Al Franken’s 316-vote margin of victory in 2008

423
Wohns, Sam. "Progressives Are the Future of the Democratic Party." The Huffington Post. January 7,
2015. Accessed January 13, 2016. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/sam-wohns/progressive-
democrats_b_6430096.html.
424
Wohns, “Progressives Are the Future.”
425
Wohns, “Progressives Are the Future.”

140.
was dwarfed by his 202,862-vote margin this year.
426
Others such as Ann Kirkpatrick in
Arizona, Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire, and Rick Nolan of Minnesota also found
success through supporting public investments in infrastructure and railing against Wall
Street and corporate influence.
While centrist Democrats point to the failed presidential bids of progressives such
as Howard Dean in 2004 and John Edwards in 2008, Bernie Sanders and his progressive
populist grassroots success has become the biggest surprise story of the 2016 Democratic
Primary. As of May, 2016, Bernie Sanders has won eighteen states, with three virtual ties
in Iowa, Massachusetts, and Missouri (in terms of delegate appropriations). Further
examination of the 2016 Primary’s polling data indicates Sanders has claimed the young
vote in every state thus far, with the exception of Alabama and Mississippi, while Clinton
has dominated the older vote. While this isn’t a lock that the entirety of the Democratic
base will be as liberal as Sanders in the future, it does show future generations of
Democratic voters will be more progressive, and will seek greater fundamental change.
Figure 44: 2016 Democratic Primary Votes by Age (CNN Exit Polls)
427

State
18-29 30-44 45-64 65 and older
Sanders Clinton Sanders Clinton Sanders Clinton Sanders Clinton
Alabama 40% 52% 21% 77% 15% 82% 13% 85%
Arizona N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Arkansas 58% 42% 42% 53% 19% 80% 16% 81%
Alaska N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Colorado N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Connecticut 83% 17% 54% 45% 40% 58% 27% 70%
Delaware N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Florida 65% 34% 34% 65% 26% 74% 23% 71%
Georgia 54% 46% 35% 65% 19% 80% 19% 80%
Hawaii N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Idaho N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

426
Wohns, “Progressives Are the Future.”
427
"2016 Election Center." CNN. 2016. Accessed March 14, 2016.
http://www.cnn.com/election/primaries/polls.

141.
Illinois 86% 13% 58% 42% 39% 60% 30% 70%
Indiana 74% 26% 64% 36% 43% 57% 33% 67%
Iowa 84% 14% 58% 37% 35% 58% 26% 69%
Kansas N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Louisiana N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Maine N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Maryland 68% 29% 44% 55% 19% 77% 22% 70%
Massachusetts 65% 35% 44% 55% 48% 51% 39% 59%
Michigan 81% 19% 53% 42% 41% 57% 30% 69%
Minnesota N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Mississippi 37% 62% 20% 79% 9% 90% 9% 91%
Missouri 78% 21% 61% 39% 41% 58% 30% 69%
New York 65% 35% 47% 53% 37% 63% 27% 73%
North Carolina 73% 26% 46% 51% 32% 63% 25% 68%
Nebraska N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Nevada 82% 14% 62% 35% 36% 61% 24% 74%
New Hampshire 83% 16% 66% 32% 54% 45% 45% 54%
Ohio 81% 18% 54% 45% 32% 67% 22% 77%
Oklahoma 82% 17% 73% 26% 44% 48% 36% 53%
Pennsylvania 83% 17% 53% 47% 34% 65% 31% 67%
Rhode Island N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
South Carolina 54% 46% 25% 75% 22% 77% 11% 88%
Tennessee 61% 39% 43% 56% 23% 76% 18% 82%
Texas 59% 40% 40% 58% 24% 75% 12% 87%
Utah N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Vermont 95% 5% 91% 9% 86% 13% 77% 23%
Virginia 69% 30% 43% 57% 28% 72% 15% 85%
Washington N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Wisconsin 82% 18% 66% 33% 46% 54% 37% 62%

Sanders’s authenticity and willingness to commit to a progressive populist
economic agenda has struck a chord within the Democratic base. His candidacy is
fighting an uphill battle, and while his chances of becoming President are unfavorable,
his impact in the primary can’t be denied. He has helped reinforce income inequality,
campaign finance reform, paid sick and maternity leave, regulating Wall Street, and
expanding Social Security in the forefront of national discussion.
428
Furthermore, his

428
Bob Cecsa. "Why Bernie Sanders Won the Democratic Primary - Even If He Loses." Salon. February
22, 2016. Accessed March 16, 2016.
http://www.salon.com/2016/02/22/why_bernie_sanders_won_the_democratic_primary_even_if_he_loses/.

142.
success has pulled Hillary Clinton from running as a moderate to a center-left
candidate.
429
He is simply striking a nerve within the Democratic coalition that expected
more progress under Obama. If progressive populism isn’t the recipe for electoral success
in 2016, it most certainly will be a more viable option in 2020.
However, the centrist faction of the party shouldn’t be dismissed – they present a
mainstream, pragmatic voice that will make progressivism more palatable to the average
American voter. Furthermore, each party is entrenched in an ideological stalemate, frozen
in mutual impotence, as the Republicans can’t attract enough Hispanic, female, and youth
support to win the White House while the Democrats can’t coalesce enough blue-collar
and college white voters (especially men) to control Congress.
430
This means one party
will have to shake up its tactics in order to infiltrate the other’s coalition.
Although American politics is deeply polarized, a widely held misconception is
the parties are mirror opposites of one another. The Republicans have become ideological
purists – with 72 percent calling themselves conservative.
431
Although the Democrats
have begun leaning left, they are still a diverse coalition – with 39 percent identifying as
liberal, 37 percent moderate and 25 percent conservative.
432
In the U.S. electorate as a
whole, twice as many people identify as conservative (42 percent) as they do liberal (21
percent), while 37 percent label themselves moderate.
433

429
Nicole Gaudino. "Bernie Sanders' Success May Be Pushing Hillary Clinton to the Left." USA Today.
October 08, 2015. Accessed March 20, 2016.
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2015/10/08/sanders-success-pushing-clinton-
left/73605248/.
430
Will Marshall, "How to Seize Back the Political Center." POLITICO Magazine. October 10, 2014.
Accessed January 13, 2016. http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2014/10/democratic-party-moderates-
111770?o=0.
431
"A Deep Dive Into Party Affiliation."
432
"A Deep Dive Into Party Affiliation."
433
"A Deep Dive Into Party Affiliation."

143.
Although the amount of Americans who are registered Independent has reached
an all-time high (43 percent, as of January 2015), it’s important to note that they don’t tip
the balance in U.S. politics, despite conventional thinking.
434
Most political analysts deem
Independents to be “closet partisans,” with seven in 10 leaning toward the Democrats or
Republicans. Some estimate that genuine Independents may comprise no more than six to
seven percent of the electorate. In recent years, Independents have acquired a
conservative tinge: Obama lost them 45-50 en route to his 2012 Presidential victory.
435

It’s the moderates who are the most important swing voters. This is welcome news for the
Democrats, since they lean in a more progressive direction. They comprise of 37 percent
of registered voters: 40 percent of them identify as Democrats, 39 percent as
Independents and 21 percent as Republicans.
436
Double-digit margins among moderates
put Obama over the top in 2008 (+21 points) and 2012 (+15 points), while John Kerry’s
+9 margin in 2004 wasn’t quite enough to lift him over George W. Bush.
437

Democratic pollster Peter Brodnitz, says moderates are “biased toward solutions,”
defining themselves chiefly by their pragmatism and aversion to harsh partisanship. They
don’t believe one party has all the answers, they don’t like it when politicians routinely
trash their opponents, and they expect their elected representatives to work across the
aisle to solve problems.
438
A majority of liberals (54 percent) say they favor a larger
government that provides more services; just 12 percent prefer a smaller government that

434
Jeffrey M Jones. "In U.S., New Record 43% Are Political Independents." Gallup. January 7, 2015.
Accessed January 13, 2016. http://www.gallup.com/poll/180440/new-record-political-independents.aspx.
435
Marshall, "Seize Back the Political Center."
436
"A Deep Dive Into Party Affiliation."
437
Marshall, "Seize Back the Political Center."
438
Benenson Strategy Group." Moderates Are Not Some Kind of Political Chimera."

144.
provides fewer services.
439
Only 23 percent of moderates choose the big government
option, while 37 percent favor smaller government.
440
A plurality of moderates (39
percent) rejects the “big-small” choice altogether, while liberals and conservatives adopt
more ideologically aligned positions in favor of one or the other.
441
Will Marshall,
President of the Progressive Policy Institute, characterizes moderates in his Politico
article, “How to Seize Back the Political Center”:
“On issues, moreover, moderates aren’t just faint-hearted liberals. Surveys show
they have attitudes and policy preferences that often differ in kind and degree
from those of liberals. For example, moderates give higher priority to economic
growth than redistribution to achieve equality. Although they take climate change
seriously, they are more supportive than liberals of domestic oil and gas
production. They support a strong social safety net, but are more likely to
emphasize personal responsibility and work as prerequisites for escaping poverty.
Liberals don’t see a problem with ‘borrow and spend’ policies; moderates worry a
lot about saddling the next generation with big debts. And they are more
conflicted on immigration, torn between sympathy for illegal migrants and
qualms about the moral hazard involved in granting them citizenship.”
442

When accounting for the liberal and centrist factions within the Democratic base,
it is important to devise a progressive strategy that focuses on both economic growth and
fairness, and making government a means of achieving policy solutions, rather than the
end. Bill Clinton and Al Gore called this “reinventing government.”
443
Pursuing this
strategy would focus on pragmatic solutions that both liberals and moderates can get
behind, cementing the Democrats as a progressive center-left party.
444
A big mistake the
Democrats made in the 2014 Midterm was focusing on cultural issues, such as abortion,
in order to paint the Republicans as extremists. The Democrats, and liberals, are already

439
"Government." Gallup. 2015. Accessed January 13, 2016.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/27286/government.aspx.
440
“Government.”
441
“Government.”
442
Marshall, "Seize Back the Political Center."
443
Marshall, "Seize Back the Political Center."
444
Marshall, "Seize Back the Political Center."

145.
winning the culture war, so these issues can take a back seat to boosting the economy.
This especially rings true when campaigning in areas with a high-density of blue-collar,
rural, white voters. The party of FDR needs to regroup and devise a campaign focused on
rebuilding the American economy and display that it’s committed to making government
modern and more efficient, not just “bigger.”
THREATS

1. EMBRACING A PROGRESSIVE POPULIST AGENDA COULD LIMIT THEIR
AMOUNT OF BIG-MONEY/SUPER PAC FUNDING
The post Citizens United world of politics is one dominated by big business
interests, as the Supreme Court ruled money equals free speech. Since billionaire and
corporate donors legally have more speech than the average voter through their
501(c)(3)s, they can pour millions of dollars into steering policy in their favor and
influence elections. This makes the old adage, “money talks, bullshit walks” all the more
applicable in contemporary American politics.
This is confirmed by a 2014 Princeton University study, “Testing Theories of
Politics,” which draws data from over 1,800 different policy initiatives from 1981 to
2002 to compare the political preferences of Americans at the 50
th
income percentile to
preferences of Americans at the 90
th
percentile as well as major lobbying or business
groups.
445
They find that the government — whether Republican or Democratic — more
often follows the preferences of the latter group rather than the first. “The central point
that emerges from our research is that economic elites and organized groups representing
business interests have substantial independent impacts on U.S. government policy, while

445
Martin Gilens and Benjamin I. Page. "Testing Theories of American Politics: Elites, Interest Groups,
and Average Citizens." American Political Science Association (2014): 566.

146.
mass-based interest groups and average citizens have little or no independent
influence.”
446
As this study reveals policy data dating back to the 1980s, the United States
has effectively been an oligarchy under the façade of a democracy for quite some time,
with politicians paying lip service to voters about “middle class economics” and “family
values” to get elected only to do the bidding of the mega-donors who have a firm clench
on the legislative process.
This trend in politics is upsetting to most Americans, as they continue to coast
through a stagnant economy left structurally unrepaired by cynical, unresponsive
politicians. The New York Times reports 74 percent of Americans believe large
corporations have far too much influence on American life and politics; this belief isn’t
exclusive to partisan leanings – 62 percent of Republicans, 84 percent of Democrats and
72 percent of Independents agree that corporate influence is too strong.
447

RealClearPolitics and the Washington Post reported in June 2015 that Democratic
voters are becoming increasingly liberal, and are the most liberal they’ve ever been in the
past 15 years.
448

449
This means a progressive agenda, as supported by liberal political
icons Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders – which includes regulating Wall Street,
removing corporate money out of elections, and increasing government social programs –
has been gaining traction within the Democratic coalition and galvanizing voters to take
notice. Although the Democrats receive plenty of donations from labor unions,

446
Gilens, and Page, “Testing Theories,” 565.
447
"Americans’ Views on Income Inequality."
448
Matthew Disler. "Poll: Democrats Becoming Increasingly Liberal." RealClearPolitics. June 18, 2015.
Accessed January 07, 2016.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2015/06/18/poll_democrats_becoming_increasingly_liberal__127
035.html.
449
Chris Cillizza. "Democrats Are More Liberal Today than at Any Point in the Last 15 Years."
Washington Post. June 18, 2015. Accessed January 07, 2016. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-
fix/wp/2015/06/18/democrats-are-more-liberal-today-than-at-anytime-in-the-last-15-years/.

147.
universities, and advocacy organizations, a considerable amount of their funding comes
from Wall Street and large corporations – and even so, they are at a funding disadvantage
compared to their Republican counterparts.
MarketWatch produced a list of the Top 27 Corporate Donors to Republicans and
Democrats (2002-2015), with only Goldman Sachs, Microsoft Corp., Time Warner Inc.
and Comcast donating more money to the Democrats:

450
Lianne, Ciara. "Here Are America's Biggest Corporate Donors to Republicans and Democrats."
MarketWatch. October 27, 2015. Accessed January 06, 2016. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/here-are-
americas-biggest-corporate-donors-to-republicans-and-democrats-2015-10-27.
Figure 45: Top 27 Corporate Donors to Republicans & Democrats (2002-2015)
450

Corporation
Money Given to Republicans /
Conservatives
Money Given to
Democrats / Liberals
Las Vegas Sands $69.4 million ---
AT&T Inc. $35.5 million $25.3 million
Goldman Sachs $24.2 million $27.9 million
Citigroup Inc. $18 million $17 million
JPMorgan Chase & Co. $18 million $16.5 million
United Parcel Service $22.3 million $12.2 million
Microsoft Corp. $14.2 million $17.9 million
General Electric $16.4 million $14.5 million
Lockheed Martin $17.2 million $12.7 million
Bank of America $17.4 million $12.1 million
Morgan Stanley $16.2 million $12.3 million
Verizon Communications $16.8 million $12.4 million
Time Warner $6.18 million $18.8 million
Comcast Corp. $10.8 million $14 million
Boeing Co. $13 million $11.2 million
Honeywell International $13.4 million $10.4 million
Northrop Grumman $12.8 million $9.5 million
AFLAC Inc. $12.3 million $9.41 million
Pfizer Inc. $13.8 million $7.52 million
Altria Group $13.8 million $6.04 million
Raytheon Co. $11.2 million $8.45 million
American Financial Group $16.2 million $2.23 million
General Dynamics $9.77 million $8.22 million
Chevron Corp. $14.4 million $3.17 million
Wal-Mart Stores $11.3 million $6.01 million
Exxon Mobil $14.6 million $2.26 million
FedEx Corp. $10.3 million $6.22 million

148.
It would appear that a progressive/liberal economic agenda of reigning in
corporate influence and election spending is at odds with the interests of many political
mega-donors – because it is. Jacob Hacker and Paul Pierson, in their 2014 Yale
University study, “After the ‘Master Theory,’” note the growing political power of
business and the wealthy have affected the two parties very differently:
“Although the political behavior of business sectors varies considerably, much
business investment in the Democratic Party is a form of ‘insurance’ intended to
moderate the party’s policy stances. The rise of a powerful business-moderate
coalition, the Democratic Leadership Council (DLC), within the party during the
1980s provides a particularly telling example. Business contributions to the GOP,
on the other hand, are often intended to foster an aggressive pro-business policy
agenda. Thus the growing power of business and the wealthy in the American
polity could simultaneously moderate policy stances in the Democratic Party
while encouraging the GOP shift to the right.”
451

Essentially, the Democrats are currently incentivized to be centrist and bend to the
uncompromising will of the Republicans. Along the campaign trail, Bernie Sanders laid
out his plan to break up “too big to fail” banks in Manhattan, where he repeats his oft
quoted line that fittingly captures his motives of running for President, “Congress doesn’t
regulate Wall Street, Wall Street regulates Congress.”
452

The Democrats already stand at a fundraising deficit. Since January 2011, the
House’s Democratic candidates have raised $423 million, while Republicans candidates
have raised $549 million over that time span.
453
The minority Democrats’ fund-raising
committee, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), has had

451
Jacob S. Hacker and Paul Pierson. "After the “Master Theory”: Downs, Schattschneider, and the Rebirth
of Policy-Focused Analysis." Perspectives on Politics (2014): 672-673.
452
Yamiche Alcindor and Alan Rappeport. "Bernie Sanders Attacks Hillary Clinton Over Regulating Wall
Street." The New York Times. 2016. Accessed January 07, 2016.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/06/us/politics/bernie-sanders-attacks-hillary-clinton-over-regulating-
wall-street.html?smid=fb-nytimes.
453
Murray, Mark. "Super PACs, Outside Groups Dominate GOP '16 Ad Spending." NBC News. November
4, 2015. Accessed December 21, 2015. http://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/super-pacs-outside-
groups-dominate-gop-16-ad-spending-n457351.

149.
slightly better success than its individual members. The DCCC has raised about $14
million more than its Republican counterpart, the Republican National Congressional
Committee (RNCC), since this cycle began in January 2011.
454
That advantage continued
in 2015, when the DCCC raised $35 million, its highest quarterly haul, while the RNCC
raised $31 million.
455
Republican Senate candidates have also raised more than their
Democratic counterparts in 2015, despite being the minority party in the chamber.
They’ve hauled in $292 million since January 2011, while Democratic candidates have
mustered $249 million.
456
As is the case in the House, the Democratic Party’s Senate
fund-raising wing has raised slightly more than it Republican counterpart, but not enough
to close the Republicans’ overall lead there.
To further compound matters, the Koch Brothers announced in early 2015, that
they planned on spending roughly $889 million on the 2016 elections, a sum unrivaled by
any outside group and totals the amount of spending by both parties.
457
Conservatives
bemoan liberal magnate George Soros, but the Democrats don’t really have comparable
billionaire support. For example, Media Matters for America reported the Koch
Brothers alone have vastly outspent liberal billionaires Tom Steyer and Soros, who are
steady, and the most notable, contributors to the Democratic Party:
“ABC News reported that the Koch brothers are worth over 50 times as much as
Tom Steyer: $81.2 billion to $1.6 billion. … In the 2012 election cycle, the Koch
brothers channeled over $400 million through their groups ‘active in the 2012
elections,’ according to the Washington Post. … George Soros personally spent
$1 million in the last election, and all his donations were disclosed in ‘publicly
accessible records.’ … Tom Steyer announced in February that he aimed to raise

454
Murray, “Super PAC, Outside Groups.”
455
Murray, “Super PAC, Outside Groups.”
456
Murray, “Super PAC, Outside Groups.”
457
Nicholas Confessore. "Koch Brothers’ Budget of $889 Million for 2016 Is on Par With Both Parties’
Spending." The New York Times. January 26, 2015. Accessed January 5, 2016.
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/27/us/politics/kochs-plan-to-spend-900-million-on-2016-campaign.html.

150.
and match $50 million (for a total of $100 million) through his super PAC for the
2014 elections.”
458

This unrestricted money allows people like the Koch Brothers to also fund activist
groups to push forward conservative policies and influence elections.
For example, the Koch Brothers used their primary advocacy group, Americans
for Prosperity (AFP), to help transform the Tea Party movement into a major political
force. They supported the movement by organizing “Porkulus”-themed protests in
Denver, Sacramento, Austin and Madison in conjunction with Obama signing the
American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009.
459
AFP played a major role in
achieving a Republican majority in the U.S. House of Representatives in 2010 by
supporting Tea Party groups, purchasing political advertisements, sponsoring a
nationwide bus tour themed “November is Coming” to recruit canvassers and organizers,
organizing voter registration drives, and developing a website that offers “Tea Party
Talking Points.”
460
The organization also provided activists with education on policy,
training in methods and a list of politicians to target. AFP announced it spend a total of
$40 million on rallies, phone banks and canvassing during the election cycle.
461
Of the six
freshman Republican members of the House Committee on Energy and Commerce in

458
Denise Robbins, "Myths And Facts About The Koch Brothers." Media Matters for America. August 27,
2014. Accessed January 6, 2016. http://mediamatters.org/research/2014/08/27/myths-and-facts-about-the-
koch-brothers/200570.
459
Chris Kromm, "Art Pope and the Corporate Takeover of Democracy." The Huffington Post. May 25,
2011. Accessed March 24, 2016. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/chris-kromm/art-pope-and-the-
corporat_b_758020.html.
460
"Conservative Group Pushes to Enlist Thousands After Obama Suggests It's Foreign Influenced." Fox
News. August 12, 2010. Accessed March 24, 2016.
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2010/08/12/americans-prosperity-slams-obama-suggesting-foreign-
influence.html.
461
Jane Mayer. "Covert Operations." The New Yorker. August 30, 2015. Accessed March 24, 2016.
http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2010/08/30/covert-operations.

151.
2010, five benefitted from Americans for Prosperity advertisements and grassroots
activity.
462

They have also been major supporters of Republican Wisconsin Governor Scott
Walker. They have helped raise his profile by inviting him to speak at rallies. In 2011,
when Walker’s agenda of reduced spending, cuts to union benefits, and limits on public-
sector collective bargaining drew thousands in opposition to the streets around the state
capitol in Madison, AFP bussed in hundreds to counter-protest.
463
They have poured
millions of dollars to fight recall efforts against Walker in 2011, his re-election campaign
in 2014, and to run advertisements in support of Wisconsin Act 10, unpopular legislation
limiting collective bargaining rights for most public employees that Walker signed into
law.
464

In Michigan, AFP coordinated support for right-to-work laws in Michigan by
producing a 15-page booklet titled Unions: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly: How
Forced Unionization has Harmed Workers and Michigan and urging members to gather
at the state capital in Lansing on December 6, 2012, and some three hundred protestors
showed up.
465
On the morning of December 6, during a lame duck session of the
Republican-controlled Michigan legislature, Governor Rick Snyder called a joint press

462
Hamburger, Tom. "Koch Brothers Now at Heart of GOP Power." Los Angeles Times. February 06, 2011.
Accessed March 24, 2016. http://articles.latimes.com/2011/feb/06/nation/la-na-koch-brothers-20110206.
463
Eric Lipton, "Billionaire Brothers’ Money Plays Role in Wisconsin Dispute." The New York Times.
February 21, 2011. Accessed March 24, 2016. http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/22/us/22koch.html?_r=0.
464
Phil Hirschkorn, and Nancy Cordes. "A Record Amount of Money Spent on Wisconsin Recall." CBS
News. June 7, 2012. Accessed March 24, 2016. http://www.cbsnews.com/news/a-record-amount-of-money-
spent-on-wisconsin-recall/.
465
Lee Fang, "Pro–’Right to Work’ Groups In Michigan Outspend Union Counterparts." The Nation.
December 08, 2012. Accessed March 24, 2016. http://www.thenation.com/article/pro-right-work-groups-
michigan-outspend-union-counterparts/.

152.
conference with the legislative leadership to announce fast-track right-to-work
legislation, passing both houses of the Michigan legislature that day.
466

This Koch-controlled group alone spends hundreds of millions of dollars on
political spending and state operations to influence politics and legislation.
“What do you call an organization that operates in multiple states, staffs up for
elections, and does local endorsements for political campaigns? You call it a
political party. And by that measure, the Koch brothers’ Americans For Prosperity
is the third-largest political party in the United States.”
467

Figure 46: Comparing Party Infrastructure
468

The Republicans enjoy a robust network of fundraising and advocacy groups that
vastly outmuscle the Democrats. This not only helps sway elections and push for
conservative platforms, but it also bolsters an already cohesive Republican ideology. The
Democrats, while enjoying some mega-donor support, lag behind the Republicans in this
regard. Embarking on a populist economic platform could hurt their chances of securing

466
Brian Montopoli, "Right-to-work Signed into Law in Michigan." CBS News. December 11, 2012.
Accessed March 24, 2016. http://www.cbsnews.com/news/right-to-work-signed-into-law-in-michigan/.
467
Bump, “Americans For Prosperity.”
468
Phillip Bump. "Americans For Prosperity May Be America’s Third-biggest Political Party." Washington
Post. June 19, 2014. Accessed December 28, 2016. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-
fix/wp/2014/06/19/americans-for-prosperity-is-americas-third-biggest-political-party/.

153.
large donations from corporations and wealthy individuals, who fund campaigns in an
effort of preserving a system that enables them to accumulate vast amounts of wealth. If
this does happen, this places pressure on the Democrats to secure more funding from
unions and individuals.
2. REPUBLICAN DOMINANCE AT A STATE LEVEL IS PRODUCING MORE
CONSERVATIVE-FRIENDLY ENVIRONMENTS TO SOLIDIFY POWER &
REPUBLICAN MAJORITIES IN CONGRESS WILL STALL ANY DEMOCRATIC
AGENDA, MAKING THE PARTY OF “BIG GOVERNMENT” LOOK INEFFECTIVE
The Democratic Party’s dismal midterm performance is well documented, but a
particularly concerning result for them is the GOP currently has unified control over 25
state legislatures, while the Dems only control seven. Four of the 11 states where they
control both houses of the state legislature – Maryland, New Jersey, Massachusetts and
Illinois – have a Republican governor. Along with the typical set of tax cuts for the
wealthy and business-friendly regulations, the result has been a disturbing slew of
legislation:
• An unprecedented wave of restrictions on abortion rights.
• The spread of union-hostile “right to work” laws into the Great Lake States.
Unions are a traditionally important organizing force for the Democrats.
• New curbs on voting rights, which tend to disenfranchise voters who are more
likely to vote Democrat and tilt the electorate in a richer, whiter, older direction.
• Large-scale layoffs of teachers and other public sector workers who are likely to
support Democrats.

Political scientist Phil Klinkner argues a natural, almost “thermostatic” ebb and
flow of partisan fidelity has existed in American politics for quite some time – when one
party controls the White House, public opinion naturally shifts to the opposing party.
469

469
Lee Drutman, "America May Be in a Reinforcing Feedback Loop of Growing Inequality and Republican
Rule." Vox. November, 2015. Accessed January 07, 2016.
http://www.vox.com/polyarchy/2015/11/4/9665842/republican-inequality-future-loop.

154.
Meanwhile, Vox’s Matthew Yglesias argues Obama’s resounding electoral successes has
bred an air of complacency within the DNC and they have no clear plan on how to
address their crippling down ballot weaknesses – this clear lack of leadership and strategy
leaves the party in much worse shape than most people realize.
470

Democratic strategists need to ask themselves whether American democracy
operates primarily by balancing feedback loops (in which partisan electoral victories are
always short-lived because they provoke an equal, but opposite reaction) or primarily by
reinforcing feedback loops (in which electoral victories translate into policy victories that
can cement long-term advantages)?
471
Considering historical trends, it seems it’s a
combination of both, but the onslaught of union bashing, public education dismantling,
voter ID laws, and gerrymandering is a very troublesome development in many
Republican-controlled states.
Samuel Lubell offers a macrohistorical perspective by describing a broad pattern
of American politics as consisting of a dominant, or “sun” party, and the secondary, or
“moon” party: “It is within the majority party that the issues of any particular period are
fought out; while the minority party shines in reflected radiance of the heat thus
generated.”
472
This dominance usually stretches for long periods of time – Republicans
had mostly solid control of Congress for about 70 years following the Civil War and the
Democrats mainly dominated Congress for 60 years following the Great Depression.
473

470
Matthew Yglesias, "Democrats Are in Denial. Their Party Is Actually in Deep Trouble." Vox. October
19, 2015. Accessed January 07, 2016. http://www.vox.com/2015/10/19/9565119/democrats-in-deep-
trouble.
471
Drutman, "America May Be in a Reinforcing Feedback Loop."
472
Samuel Lubell. The Future of American Politics (New York: Harper, 1952), 144.
473
Frances E. Lee, "American Politics Is More Competitive than Ever. That’s Making Partisanship Worse."
Washington Post. Accessed January 07, 2016. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-
cage/wp/2014/01/09/american-politics-is-more-competitive-than-ever-thats-making-partisanship-worse/.

155.
Since the mid-1990s, the House and Senate have mainly been a toss up, an unusual trend
that has produced the most consistently competitive period in American history.
Figure 47: Control of the U.S. House of Representatives (1855-2010)
474

University of Maryland Government & Politics Department professor Frances E.
Lee argues this fierce, grisly competition is a key driver in this nasty bout of partisanship:
“The period since 1980 stands out as the longest sustained period of competitive
balance between the parties since the Civil War. … Competition fuels party
conflict by raising the political stakes of every policy dispute. When control of
national institutions hangs in the balance, no party wants to grant political
legitimacy to its opposition by voting for the measures it champions. … Instead,
parties in a competitive environment will want to amplify the differences voters
perceive between themselves and their opposition. They will continually strive to
give voters an answer to the key question: ‘Why should you support us instead of
them?’ Even when the parties do not disagree in substantive terms, they still have
political motivations to actively seek and find reasons to oppose one another. In
an environment as closely competitive as the present, even small political
advantages can be decisive in winning or losing institutional majorities. …
Competition for power, not only ideological polarization, contributes to our
confrontational contemporary politics.”
475

University of Maryland Associate Professor Thomas Schaller argues the GOP
increasingly enjoys inherent structural advantages based on geography. The natural

474
Lee, “American Politics Is More Competitive.”
475
Lee, “American Politics Is More Competitive.”

156.
population distribution by county heavily favors the Republicans, at least on a state level,
since most counties are either suburban or rural areas.
476
The constitutional design of the
Senate, population geography, and Congress procedural rules exaggerate Republican
influence in Washington. Republican voters also turn out in higher numbers because of
stronger networks, the party’s superior ability to mobilize their coalitions and many
socioeconomic factors that play into their favor. Essentially, the GOP begins every
congressional cycle with a head start, which disproportionally over-represents their
constituents, which, in turn, magnifies their clout.
Several characteristics of the American electoral system, including the structure
and procedures of the Senate and House, as well as the electoral calendar, also play into
the Republican’s favor. The U.S. Senate was designed to over-represent small states, but
only recently has that bias been a Republican advantage, especially in areas such as gun
control and immigration.
“Vermont’s 625,000 residents have two United States senators, and so do New
York’s 19 million. That means that a Vermonter has 30 times the voting power in
the Senate of a New Yorker just over the state line — the biggest inequality
between two adjacent states. The nation’s largest gap, between Wyoming and
California, is more than double that.”
477

Since the mid-20
th
century, when the GOP regularly elected senators from large
states such as California, Illinois and New York, the shift in the party’s electorate has
driven them to dominate small states and surrender large states. As a result, the GOP has
consistently held a higher share of Senate seats than the share of American citizens who

476
Thomas Schaller, "55-45 Politics in a 50-50 Country." The American Prospect. October 28, 2015.
Accessed January 07, 2016. http://prospect.org/article/republican-structural-advantage.
477
Liptak, Adam. "Smaller States Find Outsize Clout Growing in Senate." The New York Times. 2013.
Accessed March 14, 2016. http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2013/03/11/us/politics/democracy-
tested.html?_r=0.

157.
vote for its candidates.
478
This even applies to the House, as Republicans have been able
to outperform their share of the vote.
479
In 2012, House Speaker John Boehner maintained
his majorities despite Republican House candidates receiving over a million fewer votes
nationwide than Democratic House candidates captured.
480
Even Mitt Romney, despite
losing the popular vote, carried more House districts than Obama.
481
This schism between
national totals and district outcomes reflects a geographic and political trend: Democratic
voters have now clustered into highly concentrated urban areas while the Republican
Party has been capitalizing on population patterns through the strategic use of partisan
gerrymandering.
Procedural rules in the Senate and House also favor Republicans; a mere majority
isn’t required to pass legislation. The Senate features the filibuster and the House because
features the “Hastert Rule,” a governance informality named after former Republican
Speaker Dennis Hastert that stipulates legislation is prohibited to go to a vote without the
support of a majority of the majority party – effectively providing a veto to an electoral
minority.
482

The timing of American elections also favors Republicans, as the majority of state
and local elections are conducted during non-presidential cycles, where turnout is
historically lower. Out of the 48 governors who serve four-year terms (Vermont’s and
New Hampshire’s governors hold office for two-year terms), only nine are elected during

478
Schaller, "55-45 Politics.”
479
Schaller, "55-45 Politics.”
480
Ian Millhiser. "Why Americans Actually Voted For A Democratic House." ThinkProgress. November
07, 2012. Accessed March 14, 2016. http://thinkprogress.org/justice/2012/11/07/1159631/americans-voted-
for-a-democratic-house-gerrymandering-the-supreme-court-gave-them-speaker-boehner/.
481
Clark Bensen. "2012 Presidential Results by Congressional District." The Cook Report. April 4, 2013.
Accessed March 14, 2016. http://cookpolitical.com/story/5606.
482
Carl M. Cannon "Down With the Hastert Rule." RealClearPolitics. November 30, 2014. Accessed
January 14, 2016.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2014/11/30/down_with_the_hastert_rule_124782.html.

158.
the same year as presidential elections.
483
Moreover, the remaining 39 hold gubernatorial
elections in off-year or odd-numbered-year elections, where turnout is historically
lower.
484
The vast majority of American state legislators are also elected in non-
presidential elections.
The Republicans ideological preferences of government’s relationship with
American life and economy are also beneficial. Shaller states, the Republicans “aren’t
just the ‘party of no’ that opposes any liberal initiative, but they are the party of nothing,
content with being in government to not govern.”
485
American politics is best suited to
deliver nothing to its citizens; checks and balances in the system and the almost
insurmountable staying power of the status quo makes nothing incredibly easy to
achieve.
486
If attempts at reform or changing existing laws or policies fail, it marks a
victory for conservatism.
“Because conservatives and Republicans are ideologically predisposed to
blocking changes or accretions in governmental policy, the victory of nothing is
often a victory for the GOP. Delivering zero policy results isn’t a failure of
Republican rule but quite often the objective. Because Republicans repeatedly
emphasize that government is the problem and not the solution to most problems,
the GOP tends to be rewarded when government fails.”
487

The Republican response to the passage of Obamacare is a perfect example.
Despite their talking points of “repeal and replace,” most Republicans haven’t offered a
real substantive policy alternative other than removing state barriers to insurance to
provide a free market.
488

483
Schaller, "55-45 Politics.”
484
Schaller, "55-45 Politics.”
485
Schaller, "55-45 Politics.”
486
Schaller, "55-45 Politics.”
487
Schaller, "55-45 Politics.”
488
Megan McArdle. "Sketching an Obamacare Alternative, Finally." BloombergView. August 8, 2015.
Accessed March 14, 2016. http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-08-18/walker-and-rubio-health-
reform-plans-hint-at-gop-direction.

159.
“If the primary goal of casting those votes was to remind voters that the GOP
wants to undo things, and undoing things can generate sufficient votes to win and
hold office, there’s no need to do the heavy lifting of developing workable policy
alternatives, building a party coalition around a chosen plan, explaining that plan
to the American public, and implementing that policy’s new regulatory rules to
make sure they work. All that governing sounds exhausting.”
489

The GOP is often brutally honest about its obstructionist tactics. Here are a few
examples:
• At a John McCain campaign rally in 2010, Palin proclaimed that the Republican
Party isn't the party of no – “we’re the party of hell no!”
490

• After the 2010 Congressional Elections, which gave the Republicans control of
the House, Republican House leader Mitch McConnell said, “Our top political
priority over the next two years should be to deny President Obama a second
term.”
491

• In an interview during “Face the Nation” in 2013, host Bob Schieffer asked
Speaker John Boehner how he felt about the 113
th
Congress being on pace to
become the least-productive Congress in history. Boehner responded by stating
congressional Republicans should be judged based on how many laws they repeal,
not create.
492

Democrats have no such luxury, as policy intransigence, hurts the party of “big
government.” When gridlock festers, Democrats are forced turn to the courts as the
arbiter that can bust through legislative logjams and deliver liberal policy outcomes.
“Republicans do not necessarily suffer when Democrats win in court; in fact, the
GOP often benefits electorally and politically from landmark liberal court
victories. As constitutional scholar Mark Tushnet argues in his book ‘Why the
Constitution Matters,’ the value for many elected officials of landmark court
rulings is that these edicts often absolve legislators and executives of having to

489
Schaller, "55-45 Politics.”
490
Michael Falcone. "Palin, McCain Rally In Arizona: GOP Is 'Party Of Hell No'" The Huffington Post.
May 26, 2010. Accessed March 14, 2016. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/03/26/palin-mccain-rally-
in-ari_n_515026.html.
491
"GOP Leader's Top Goal: Make Obama 1-term President." MSNBC. November 04, 2010. Accessed
March 14, 2016. http://www.nbcnews.com/id/40007802/ns/politics-decision_2010/t/gop-leaders-top-goal-
make-obama--term-president/.
492
"Face the Nation Transcripts July 21, 2013: Boehner and Snyder." CBS News. July 21, 2013. Accessed
March 14, 2016. http://www.cbsnews.com/news/face-the-nation-transcripts-july-21-2013-boehner-and-
snyder/.

160.
resolve controversial policy disputes. Elected politicians can simply say the courts
forced their hands.”
493

For example, Obergefell v. Hodges, which legalized gay marriages nationwide,
was a huge policy win for liberals, Democrats, and the few pro-gay Republicans.
Meanwhile, the “traditional values” Republican majority was able to seize this ruling and
use it to foment anger about nine “unelected activist judges” imposing “their views” on
Americans. This isn’t new, as these same Republicans, who also typically oppose
reproductive rights, have been raising money and generating votes for four decades by
fulminating against Roe v. Wade.
494
Although Republicans are faced with drowning in
attempt to resist the swirling cultural riptides, thrusting them to moderate on LGBT
issues, a vast majority of congressional Republicans and state legislators in deep red areas
of America will continue to leverage this issue into campaign donations, votes, and
victories at the polls.
495

“For them, Obergefell is a policy defeat, but a political gift. Democrats sometimes
make electoral hay by railing against conservative court rulings, too. But again,
given conservatives’ ideologically fueled animosity toward ‘black-robed’ judges,
Republicans stand to gain more electorally and politically from adverse court
decisions than Democrats do.”
496

All this dysfunction has prevented President Obama, and the Democrats, from
making meaningful progress in comprehensive immigration reform, raising the minimum
wage, and enacting sensible gun control. This lack of progress is resulting in mounting
frustration among American voters, which could make the party of “big government”
look inept at governance.

493
Schaller, "55-45 Politics.”
494
Schaller, "55-45 Politics.”
495
Kristen Watt, "GOP 2016 Hopefuls Sound off against Gay Marriage Ruling." PBS. June 28, 2015.
Accessed March 17, 2016. http://www.pbs.org/newshour/rundown/gop-hopefuls-criticise-gay-marriage-
ruling/.
496
Schaller, "55-45 Politics.”

161.
John Judis, a senior writer at the National Journal, discerned an “Emerging
Republican Advantage” which consists of voters with a four-year, but not and advanced
college degree, and senior citizens.
“Republicans are gaining dramatically among a group that had tilted toward
Democrats in 2006 and 2008: Call them middle-class Americans. These are voters
who generally work in what economist Stephen Rose has called ‘the office
economy.’ In exit polling, they can roughly be identified as those who have
college—but not postgraduate—degrees and those whose household incomes are
between $50,000 and $100,000. The defection of these voters—who, unlike the
white working class, are a growing part of the electorate—is genuinely bad news
for Democrats, and very good news indeed for Republicans. The question, of
course, is whether it is going to continue. It’s tough to say for sure, but I think
there is a case to be made that it will.”
497

Initially these four-year college grads were politically split between Democrats
and Republicans. They backed Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996, George W. Bush in 2000
and 2004, drifted back to the Democrats in 2006, and backed Barack Obama and
Democratic House candidates in 2008.
498
Since then, they’ve gravitated back to
Republican candidates – Mitt Romney won this group 51 to 47 percent in 2012, and
Republican House candidates seized this group in 2014 by 54 to 44 percent.
499

“This phenomenon is especially concentrated among whites in this group, who
occupy a comparable rung in the occupational ladder now to the working-class
Reagan Democrats of 1980, share similar worries and resentments, and have
been squeezed economically during the past 15 years.”
500

According to the American National Election Studies, John McCain won these
voters against Obama by 54 to 42 in 2008.
501
In 2012, this gap widened to 57 to 38

497
John B. Judis. "The Emerging Republican Advantage." National Journal. January 30, 2015. Accessed
January 07, 2016. http://www.nationaljournal.com/s/32748/emerging-republican-advantage.
498
John B. Judis. "Democrats Are in More Trouble than They Think. And Changing Demographics Won't
save Them." Vox. January 14, 2016. Accessed January 15, 2016.
http://www.vox.com/2016/1/14/10761208/democrats-doomed.
499
Judis, “Democrats Are in More Trouble.”
500
Judis, “Democrats Are in More Trouble.”
501
"2012 Election Data Center." American National Election Studies. 2013. Accessed January 15, 2016.
http://www.electionstudies.org/studypages/anes_timeseries_2012/anes_timeseries_2012.htm.

162.
percent, a seven-point swing that is comparable to the margins by which Romney won
the white working class.
502

Senior citizens, once a dependable Democratic vote, are also moving toward
Republicans – Bill Clinton won voters 65 and older twice, Al Gore carried them in 2000,
and John Kerry in 2004.
503
Since 2008, seniors have tilted Republican – they gained a 6-
point advantage over Democrats in 2010. This can partially be attributed to Obamacare
and immigration.
“According to Pew polls, seniors have been the group most disapproving of
Obama’s Affordable Care — 56.5 to 37.9 percent in September 2013. Many
seniors appear to have feared that the Affordable Care Act was being financed by
reductions in projected spending on Medicare. They saw themselves having to
sacrifice their own coverage for the sake of the uninsured.

Seniors have also been the most critical of immigration reform proposals. In
December 2014, when Obama issued an executive order allowing some
undocumented immigrants to become legal residents, seniors in a Pew poll
opposed Obama’s order by 58 to 39 percent. A Brookings Public Religion
Research Institute poll in 2013 found that seniors were the only age group in
which a greater number believed that growing immigration ‘threatens American
customs and values.’”
504

Combined with rural voters, evangelicals, business owners and managers, and
white-working class voters (although declining, they still hold the balance of power in the
Deep South and swing states Iowa, Ohio, Minnesota, and New Hampshire), the
Republicans have a formidable voting bloc of their own. While demographic trends favor
Democrats overall, this GOP cohort will still be a force in many states, making a
consistent Democratic majority in the House and Senate difficult.
Additionally, Republican dominance allows the incumbents to gerrymander their
districts, giving them inherent advantages for future elections. In his National Journal

502
"2012 Election Data Center."
503
Judis, “Democrats Are in More Trouble.”
504
Judis, “Democrats Are in More Trouble.”

163.
article, “The Pernicious Effects of Gerrymandering,” Norm Ornstein, a resident scholar at
the American Enterprise Institute, states:
“Gerrymandering has helped create a huge number of districts that are fundament-
ally safe for one party. This is sometimes done by a dominant party in a state
‘packing’ the other party’s districts to limit its chances in other districts. … Gerry-
mandering adds both to the homogeneity of districts and to making low-turnout
primaries dominated by ideological activists the only meaningful elections.”
505

The average House district already favors Republicans, but GOP control of most
state legislatures allows its members to draw boundaries that are even friendlier to their
party than the natural population distribution would suggest. Also, incumbents have large
advantages in House elections due to recognition, established networks and voter
infrastructure and fundraising. Since most incumbents are now Republicans, the
Democrats are fighting an uphill battle to reclaim Congress.
Figure 48: Map of Redistricting Processes
506

• Yellow: Legislatures control redistricting.
• Green: Commissions control redistricting.
• Purple: Non-partisan staff proposes the maps, but the state legislature votes on the proposal.
• Grey: States with only one Representative.

505
Norm Ornstein. "The Pernicious Effects of Gerrymandering." National Journal. December 3, 2014.
Accessed December 18, 2015. http://www.nationaljournal.com/daily/2014/12/03/Pernicious-Effects-
Gerrymandering.
506
"Gerrymandering in the United States." Wikipedia. Accessed March 17, 2016.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gerrymandering_in_the_United_States#Partisan.

164.
Even more concerning for the Democrats, the Republicans also have the ability to
halt any legislation that protects voting rights, stifling the ability of low-income and
minority voters to vote, as they typically lean Democrat. Nate Silver, founder of
FiveThirtyEight, states that although it’s difficult to pinpoint the specific effects of voter
ID laws, he concludes after rigorous research of various studies, on a macro-level, voter
suppression benefits the Republican Party.
“It’s clear enough that stricter voter ID requirements are probably bad for
Democrats, on balance. In almost every state where the ID laws have been at
issue, Republican governors and legislatures have been on the side of passing
stricter ones, while Democrats have sought to block them.”
507

Essentially, with a near supermajority of Republicans currently in power, they can
ensure their state districts are drawn to favor GOP candidates and obstacles are put in
place to restrict the amount of voters who arrive at the polls. This gives a more favorable
electoral atmosphere for continual Republican control over federal and state
governments. Since GOP control of the House is so solid, the Democrat’s agenda is
essentially dead on arrival at the federal level, making the party look impotent.
With the middle class’ increasing concerns of the stability of their future
economic prospects, the dysfunctional nature of the federal government in the middle of a
power struggle between the two parties and the population distribution favoring
Republicans on a county level, the Democrats have some hurdles to overcome if they
want sustainable down-ballot electoral success. Additionally, Yale University’s Jacob
Hacker and Berkeley’s Paul Pierson acknowledge the Republican’s policies of
deregulation, tax breaks for the wealthy, breaking up labor unions, defunding public

507
Nate Silver. "Measuring the Effects of Voter Identification Laws." FiveThirtyEight. July 15, 2012.
Accessed December 18, 2015. http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/07/15/measuring-the-effects-
of-voter-identification-laws/.

165.
education and enacting voter ID laws have strengthened their core constituencies (the
well-off) while weakening the Democrats’ core constituencies (those who are less well-
off).
508
Unlike the years following the Great Depression, when economic calamity and
financial destitute mobilized the country to support governmental action to assuage the
carnage wreaked by the reckless actions of the financial sector, we are witnessing social
stratification contribute to more conservative-friendly political winds at the local level.
Voter ignorance also helps the Republicans, especially the most conservative of
the bunch. Hacker and Pierson point out that considerable political science evidence
shows that political messaging does mislead voters, undermining responsiveness.
509

Schaller’s and Hacker and Pierson’s respective research reveals the Republican’s smoke-
and-mirror strategy: Since Democrats are the part of big, especially federal, government,
political dysfunction in Washington hurts their image.
510

511
As Vox’s Lee Drutman
explains, “Republicans may be the instigators, but most voters don’t pay close enough
attention to politics to ascribe meaningful blame. They just see that they don’t like big,
federal government, and Democrats are the party of big, federal government.”
512

Voter information, perhaps, exists at the core of reinforcing feedback loops, one
that is largely beneficial to right-wing politics. This theory comes from political scientists
Torben Iversen and David Soskice, and is illustrated in their academic journal article,
“Information, Inequality, and Mass Polarization in Advanced Democracies.” They draw

508
Hacker and Pierson. "After the “Master Theory,” 708.
509
Hacker and Pierson. "After the “Master Theory,” 694.
510
Schaller, "55-45 Politics.”
511
Hacker and Pierson. "After the “Master Theory,” 702.
512
Drutman, "America May Be in a Reinforcing Feedback Loop."

166.
on considerable data across 20 democracies and identify two “Weberian ideal types” of
democracies.
513

The first type, exemplified by Scandinavian countries, tends to have relative
equality in educational opportunity and strong private sector unions. This leads to denser
social networks that discuss politics, and as a result, even those who are less well-off tend
to be pretty well-informed and engaged politically.
514
Therefore, a strong correlation
between socioeconomic status and ideological self-placement exists in these countries,
with those who are working and lower-class mostly identifying on the political left. These
countries are also highly polarized as a result of a very informed electorate since high
information and strong ideology tend to coexist.
515

The United States exemplifies the second type, which has high levels of economic
inequality and right-leaning politics. These types of countries have unequal educational
opportunities between rich and poor and weak private sector unions. These two factors
produce a public in which the lower end of the socioeconomic spectrum tends to have
low levels of political engagement and very limited information.
516
Therefore, their
socioeconomic position tends to be a poorer predictor of ideological self-placement.
Individuals that are less well-off are also less likely to place themselves on the political
left, as compared to Scandinavian countries.
517
The mass electorate also tends to be less
polarized (based on self-reported ideology), which Iversen and Soskice argue is

513
Torben Iversen and David Soskice. "Information, Inequality, and Mass Polarization: Ideology in
Advanced Democracies." Comparative Political Studies (2015): 1.
514
Iversen and Soskice. "Information, Inequality, and Mass Polarization,” 1.
515
Iversen and Soskice. "Information, Inequality, and Mass Polarization,” 4.
516
Iversen and Soskice. "Information, Inequality, and Mass Polarization,” 4.
517
Iversen and Soskice. "Information, Inequality, and Mass Polarization,” 4.

167.
indicative of their low levels of political information.
518
Analogous countries include the
United Kingdom, Ireland and Greece.
Essentially, education and union membership indirectly and directly contribute to
knowledge by facilitating networks that stimulate political discussion. Socioeconomic
status also contributes to knowledge directly – wealthier individuals tend to be more
well-informed. Political knowledge is the key variable. The crux of Iversen’s and
Soskice’s argument is the more political knowledge an individual has, the more closely
ideology and economic status coincide.
519
Those who are on the lower end of the
socioeconomic totem pole depend on unions and public education to receive political
information that assists them in self-placing them in line with their personal economic
interests. They write, “We find that political knowledge causes more polarized self-
placements, but that political knowledge has a bigger effect on the left than on the right,
and that the distribution of knowledge is biased in favor of the right.”
520

In summary, the reinforcement cycle in countries like Scandinavia is defined by
strong unions, strong investment in public education and generally informed and engaged
citizens that breeds left-leaning, but highly polarized politics.
521
They elect left-leaning
governments that invest in public education and support strong unions, and the cycle
repeats itself.
By contrast, in countries with low spending on education and weak unions, mass
political information declines. Those who are working and lower-class usually lack
information to properly identify their economic interests, political tides drift rightward,

518
Iversen and Soskice. "Information, Inequality, and Mass Polarization,” 5.
519
Iversen and Soskice, "Information, Inequality, and Mass Polarization,” 11.
520
Iversen and Soskice, "Information, Inequality, and Mass Polarization,” 15.
521
Iversen and Soskice, "Information, Inequality, and Mass Polarization,” 26.

168.
and inequality increases due to further de-investment in education and declining union
bargaining power, which further reduces political information.
522
As Iversen and Soskice
explain, “In this cluster of countries, we further expect politics and public policies to be
shifted to the right because of the strong class bias in political information.”
523
This
theory explains a much larger trend that’s occurring in the United States.
Unions have declined over the past several decades. The study, “Unions, Norms
and the Rise in U.S. Wage Inequality,” found the decline in union power and density
since 1973 explained a third of the increase in wage inequality among men since then,
and a fifth of the increased inequality among women.
524
The study noted that from 1973
to 2007, union membership in the private sector dropped to 8 percent from 34 percent
among men and to 6 percent from 16 percent among women.
525
During that time, wage
inequality in the private sector increased by more than 40 percent, the study found. The
Center on Budget and Policy Priorities reports since the 1970s, the income gap and
wealth inequality has been widening, with the top three percent of Americans owning
half of the nation’s wealth.
526
The educational gap has widened, with the poor entering
failing public school systems with high dropout rates and substandard curriculum.
As a result, the poor are dropping out of politics. Joe Soss and Lawrence Jacobs,
professors of political science at the University of Minnesota find poor voters have
weaker civic ties, since candidates are less likely to speak to their needs or try to mobilize

522
Iversen and Soskice, "Information, Inequality, and Mass Polarization,” 26.
523
Iversen and Soskice, "Information, Inequality, and Mass Polarization,” 26.
524
Bruce Western and Jake Rosenfeld. "Unions, Norms, and the Rise in U.S. Wage Inequality." American
Sociological Review (2011): 514.
525
Western and Rosenfeld. "Unions, Norms, and U.S. Wage Inequality." 540.
526
"A Guide to Statistics on Historical Trends in Income Inequality." Center on Budget and Policy
Priorities. October 26, 2015. Accessed January 07, 2016. http://www.cbpp.org/research/poverty-and-
inequality/a-guide-to-statistics-on-historical-trends-in-income-inequality.

169.
them.
527
Although workday voting, felony disenfranchisement and bureaucratic
registration all partially reduce turnout, factors such as the rate of incarceration increasing
six-fold over the past three decades, the decline of unions that would otherwise plug low-
income individuals into the political process, and perhaps most importantly, the role of
money of politics has place the priorities of big-money donors over the interests of those
living from paycheck to paycheck.
528
Another set of trends that have dissuaded the less
well-off from voting involve changes in law enforcement, restrictive welfare reforms, and
the gradual repeal of social services and public assistance – which have conjured the
image that the government doesn’t recognize the plight of poor people – so poor people
have turned their back on the electoral process.
529

“In the most disadvantaged neighborhoods, voting is more likely to be seen as a
sham. And over time, all of this feeds on itself. As poor people in poor
neighborhoods vote less, politicians become even less responsive to them, paying
attention instead to the concerns of their wealthier constituencies, who vote more
reliably and attend fundraisers. The better-off get money for schools and other
institutions to help them develop civic skills. The worse-off just get more cause
for cynicism.”
530

As socioeconomic disadvantages disproportionately affect minority voters, who
tend to lead Democrat, this voter apathy and ignorance is a major cause of their dismal
down-ballot performances. Voters tend to be unaware of the significance of electing
individuals to America’s state and federal legislative branches. They also are steered into
voting against their economic interests. The Democrats have positioned themselves to be
a “big tent” party of diversity and economic prosperity for all, yet they can’t rally their
coalition to support the party that better represents their needs. However, as the

527
Joe Soss and Lawrence R. Jacobs. "The Place of Inequality: Non-Participation in the American Polity."
Political Science Quarterly (2009): 98.
528
Soss and Jacobs, “The Place of Inequality,” 114.
529
Soss and Jacobs, “The Place of Inequality,” 114.
530
Soss and Jacobs, “The Place of Inequality,” 122.

170.
Democrats continue to cave to the Republican’s agenda and corporate interests of
deregulation and reducing government social programs, they continue to alienate their
base. As the Democrat’s maladroit campaigning and candidate selection continues,
combined with an economic vision that subtly mimics the GOP’s at times, Republicans
enter Capitol Hill and different state capitols in droves. This produces an atmosphere of
intentional incompetence, blocking Democratic and liberal policy, and more importantly,
tarnishing the brand of the party of government.
Republicans respond to this by asserting free-market policies produce more
prosperity for everyone and too much government regulation is slowing down the
economy.
531
Or they point to the federal gridlock and say the Democrats haven’t done
enough to represent the needs of the working-class and encourage them to vote
Republican as an alternative.
532
They also paint Democrats as liberal elitists who are out
of touch with the concerns of the average American. According to Iversen’s and
Soskice’s logic, this uncertainty makes the decisions of low-information voters incredibly
difficult as they are unable to determine which party actually best represents their
interests. They hear sensationalist broadcasts from major media networks, ostentatious
pundits, and competing politicians arguing over economic policy and government
performance and become wary as their voting rational gets drowned out in a sea of
squabbling and a flurry of soundbites.
As Obama is currently limping toward the finish line of a tumultuous eight-year
stint blemished with inter-party bickering, bouts of unproductivity, and mounting
frustration, the promises of hope and change seem like a luminal, distant memory. As he

531
Drutman, "America May Be in a Reinforcing Feedback Loop."
532
Drutman, "America May Be in a Reinforcing Feedback Loop."

171.
failed to hold Wall Street accountable for destroying the global economy, reign in gun
violence, and reduce income inequality, American voters have become disheartened with
a seemingly lackluster Presidential performance when compared to his soaring rhetoric of
a better America. It doesn’t matter that the Republicans tried to repeal Obamacare 54
times, or shut down the government over budget disputes, or filibuster common-sense
gun reform after 21 children were shot in a Connecticut middle school, or continuously
try to defund Planned Parenthood, or vote to give tax breaks to large corporations who
don’t need them. What the Americans see is a federal government unable to properly
address the country’s most pressing issues and is disconnected with the everyday people
they govern. The Democrat’s unwillingness to fight back caught up with them in 2010
and 2014.
Howard Dean’s “50 State Plan” placed structures in traditionally red states that
built networks of support through voter engagement and education that assisted in
Obama’s 2008 Presidential victory. His success was resounding because he either
captured or was competitive in states that typically lean Republican. Since his ascendance
to the White House, the DNC has become smug and complacent, as national trends favor
them in Presidential elections. However, governorships provide each party with future
leaders and legislation is drafted in Congress. With less governor seats to choose from
and a Congress dominated by an opposing party dedicated to obstructing any agenda left
of center, the Democrats are placed in a precarious situation of being the party of “big
government” stuck with a majority party that insists on not governing. Given the
structural state and Congressional advantages of a litany of rural and suburban counties
that vote Republican, the Democrats will struggle to consistently attain majorities in our

172.
bicameral legislature. What’s even more concerning for the DNC, is voters being so fed
up with Washington ineptitude, they decide to oust a Democrat from the Oval Office in
favor for a Republican counterpart – removing a bastion of Democratic influence and
giving the GOP utter dominance of American politics.
3. IF THE REPUBLICANS MODERATE THEIR SOCIAL PLATFORMS, THEY COULD
CUT INTO MILLENNIAL AND MINORITY SUPPORT
After Mitt Romney’s 2012 Presidential Campaign, tarnished by self-inflicted
wounds characterized by his “self-deportation” policy and a video leak that captured his
unfettered sentiment on 47 percent of Americans whom he believed are, “dependent upon
government, who believe that they are victims, who believe the government has a
responsibility to care for them, who believe that they are entitled to health care, to food,
to housing, to you-name-it. That that’s an entitlement.”
533
These egregious blunders have
characterized the GOP’s unwillingness to recognize the diversification of America’s
ever-increasingly vibrant populace. These pitfalls didn’t go unnoticed however, as RNC
chairman Reince Priebus launched a task force dedicated to objectively analyzing the
Republican Party’s shortcomings and necessary areas of improvement, known as the
“Growth and Opportunity Project.”
A key factor in the resounding GOP Midterm success was the RNC’s strategy of
focusing on recruiting and training candidates that could move toward the center of the
political spectrum. On a Monday morning in March 2014, a new video arrived at
America Rising’s war room, a crucial PAC that specializes in opposition research on

533
Chris Good. "The Lesson of Mitt Romney's 47-Percent Video: Be Nice to the Wait Staff?" ABC News.
March 14, 2013. Accessed December 15, 2016. http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2013/03/the-lesson-
of-mitt-romneys-47-percent-video-be-nice-to-the-wait-staff/.

173.
Democratic Party members. It showed Representative Bruce Braley, the Democratic
Senate candidate in Iowa, speaking at a Texas fundraiser next to a cart of whiskey. Braley
disparaged Republican Senator Charles E. Grassley, a popular figure in line to chair the
Senate Judiciary Committee, for being a “farmer from Iowa who never went to law
school.”
534
While the RNC sensed weakness, a little known farm girl and National Guard
Lieutenant colonel named Joni Ernst burst onto the political scene with a memorable ad
in which she said she grew up “castrating hogs on an Iowa farm” and knew how to “make
’em squeal” in Washington.
535
As she easily won the primary, many of her conservative
positions – opposing the federal minimum wage and supporting a “personhood”
amendment to Iowa’s constitution stating that life begins at conception – became glaring
disadvantages ripe for Democratic assault. Republicans worked to alleviate Ernst’s
presentations and platforms to become more palatable, and their efforts resulted in a
landslide victory in Iowa’s Senate election; she seized 52.2 percent of the state vote and
defeated Democratic rival Braley by 8.5 percentage points.
536
Ernst officially became
Iowa’s first female U.S. Senator.
This tactic of smoothing out the rough edges of their candidates proved successful
in other elections. Colorado Republican Cory Gardner, who snatched Mark Udall’s Senate
seat, ardently repudiated his support for “personhood” bills that would have banned
contraception and even openly broadcasted his support for over-the-counter

534
Phillip Rucker and Robert Costa. "Battle for the Senate: How the GOP Did It." Washington Post.
November 5, 2014. Accessed December 8, 2015. https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/battle-for-the-
senate-how-the-gop-did-it/2014/11/04/a8df6f7a-62c7-11e4-bb14-4cfea1e742d5_story.html.
535
Rucker and Costa, “Battle for the Senate.”
536
Jacobs, Jennifer. "Joni Ernst Wins Iowa U.S. Senate Seat." Des Moines Register. November 5, 2014.
Accessed December 8, 2015. http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/elections/2014/11/04/joni-
ernst-wins-iowa-us-senate-seat/18490851/.

174.
contraception.
537
After signing a bill that repealed a state law requiring equal pay between
genders, Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker backed equal pay for women though a
campaign ad.
538
Bruce Rauner in Illinois, Tom Cotton in Arkansas, and Dan Sullivan in
Alaska, abruptly and spontaneously chose to support an increase in minimum wage.
539

North Carolina Senate candidate Thom Tillis defied fashionable Republican dogma when
he pronounced his support for expanding Medicaid in his state.
540
By moving closer to the
center, the Republicans neutralized Democratic efforts to paint them as extremists. By
attacking President Obama’s policies and taking advantage of his unpopularity, they forced
the candidates to retreat from the president, making the party appear weak and disjointed.
When the Democrats abandon platforms that their base of youth and minority
voters prioritize, and pander too much to moderate conservatives, it shows that they take
their coalition for granted. The Republicans wisely identified their greatest vulnerabilities
leading into the 2014 Midterms, and moved swiftly to moderate their social stances.
While the 2016 Republican Primaries have been defined as a collection of candidates
desperately trying to one-up Donald Trump on who can say the most outrageously
xenophobic comments, the RNC is committed to expanding the party’s appeal to
Millennials, Latinos, African-Americans and Asians – which should make the Democrats

537
Bartels, Lynn. "Cory Gardner Changes Position on Personhood Issue." The Denver Post. March 21,
2014. Accessed December 15, 2015. http://www.denverpost.com/news/ci_25395470/senate-bombshell-
cory-gardner-says-cant-support-personhood.
538
Bassett, Laura. "Scott Walker Runs Ad Supporting Equal Pay After Repealing Wisconsin's Equal Pay
Law." The Huffington Post. October 28, 2014. Accessed December 15, 2015.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/10/28/scott-walker-runs-ad-on-e_n_6061158.html.
539
Liasson, Maria. "Shifting Stance, Some GOP Candidates Back State Minimum Wage Hikes." NPR.
September 26, 2014. Accessed December 15, 2015. http://www.npr.org/2014/09/24/351246893/subtle-sea-
change-on-minimum-wage-as-gop-candidates-back-state-hikes.
540
Judis, "Here's Why the Democrats Got Crushed—and Why 2016 Won't Be a Cakewalk." New Republic.
November 4, 2014. Accessed December 20, 2016. https://newrepublic.com/article/120138/2014-election-
results-heres-why-democrats-lost-senate-gop.

175.
queasy about retaining their coalition. To better understand the ramifications of this, it’s
important to understand the history of these groups’ gravitation toward the Democrats.
Vincent Hutchings, a political scientist who studies voter patterns at the
University of Michigan, says the first major shift in black party affiliation away from the
Republican Party happened during the Great Depression. As Franklin Roosevelt’s second
administration was characterized by the New Deal, the Democratic Party became a hub
for African-Americans who were deeply affected by the crushing poverty and high
unemployment that was plaguing 1930s America.
541
Entering the Civil Rights Era, two-
thirds of African-Americans identified with the Democratic Party, but today that number
hovers around 90 percent, with the election of the nation’s first black President.
542

According to Tufts University historian Peniel Joseph, the GOP’s nomination of
Barry Goldwater was the defining moment that triggered African-Americans’ mass
migration to the Democrats: “Barry Goldwater, for Republicans, becomes a metaphor for
the Republican response for this revolution that’s happening in the United States.”
543
The
revolution was Freedom Summer and the Civil Rights Movement in general. When
Lyndon Johnson signed the Civil Rights Act into law, Goldwater argued the legislation
was unconstitutional, and the federal government had no business interfering with states’
rights.
544

During his nomination acceptance speech at the 1964 Republican National
Convention, Goldwater emphatically declared, “extremism in the defense of liberty is no

541
Karen Grisby Bates. "Why Did Black Voters Flee The Republican Party In The 1960s?" NPR. July 14,
2014. Accessed March 14, 2016. http://www.npr.org/sections/codeswitch/2014/07/14/331298996/why-did-
black-voters-flee-the-republican-party-in-the-1960s.
542
Bates, “Why Did Black Voters Flee.”
543
Bates, “Why Did Black Voters Flee.”
544
Bates, “Why Did Black Voters Flee.”

176.
vice.”
545
According to Joseph, he was speaking of “a very specific notion of liberty. Small
government, a government that doesn’t give out handouts to black people. A government
that doesn’t have laws that interfere with states’ rights. A government that is not
conducting a war on poverty.”
546
African-American voters understood the racial
undertones of this speech. Goldwater’s campaign laid the foundation for the “Southern
Strategy” subsequently employed by Richard Nixon and Ronald Reagan to recuperate the
disaffected Southern white voters who felt the Democratic Party betrayed their way of
life.
This phenomenon is commonly understood through the “black utility heuristic,”
developed by University of Chicago professor Michael Dawson in 1994.
547
This
sentiment, also known as linked fate, is shared among African-Americans and is based on
a communal mindset that their individual prospects are ultimately tied to the success of
their race. In his book “Behind the Mule: Race and Class in African-American Politics,”
Dawson argues, “it was much more efficient for them to use the status of the group, both
relative and absolute, as a proxy for individual utility,” since race has been the
predominant factor in the African-American sociopolitical experience.
548
Generally
speaking, when entering the voting booth, black voters prioritize the well-being of their
race over their individual interests. They also consider what’s best for African-Americans

545
Bates, “Why Did Black Voters Flee.”
546
Bates, “Why Did Black Voters Flee.”
547
Johnson, Theodore R. "Can the Democratic Party Retain Its Hold on Black Voters?" The Atlantic.
September 7, 2015. Accessed January 14, 2016. http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2015/09/the-
changing-outlook-for-black-voters/403975/.
548
Johnson, “Can the Democratic Party Retain.”

177.
because their historical American experience has shown them that “we are in this thing
together.”
549

Commonly, this suggests black voters approach elections with one prevailing
question: “Which candidate is better for the African-American population?”
550
As they
try to ascertain which candidate or party is more likely to protect civil rights and support
equal access to economic opportunity for blacks, platforms like a politician’s stance on
renewable energy, free market economics, abortion, immigration, national debt, and the
role of the military are secondary and pale in comparison.
551
Tasha B. Phelpot, professor
of government at the University of Texas, writes in her book “African-American Political
Psychology: Identity, Opinion and Action in the Post-Civil Rights Era”:
“The lion’s share of African-Americans are already so predisposed to support the
Democratic candidate, and are virtually monolithic in their belief that Republican
candidates do not have their best interests at heart, that no political advertisement
is likely to influence these views.”
552

However, the 2012 election shows black turnout increased overall, and support
for Mitt Romney accompanied this boon.
“A competing perspective stipulates black voters are not loyal to the party, but to
each other at a deeper level than other races and ethnicities. A centuries-long
history grounded in the shared experience of racial subjugation and discrimination
produced a common bond among African-Americans that leads them to view the
world through the same prism.”
553

As youth turnout decreased, black voters over 45 led this drive, demarcating an
emerging gap between generations and their actualization of linked fate.
554
For the first

549
Johnson, “Can the Democratic Party Retain.”
550
Johnson, “Can the Democratic Party Retain.”
551
Johnson, “Can the Democratic Party Retain.”
552
Tasha S. Philpot and Ismail K. White. African-American Political Psychology: Identity, Opinion, and
Action in the Post-Civil Rights Era (New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2010), 168.
553
Johnson, “Can the Democratic Party Retain.”
554
Johnson, “Can the Democratic Party Retain.”

178.
time since 1980, the 2012 election signaled a decrease in registered black Independents,
resulting in an increase in African-Americans identifying as Republican. While this
doesn’t mean an imminent mass exodus of African-American voters from the Democratic
Party, it does show they shouldn’t take the black vote for granted, as this relationship is
primed for disruption. A Republican with the right message, perhaps promising criminal
justice reform and greater economic opportunity, can begin to garner support from the
African-American community.
Asian-Americans, with a population of 17.2 million, have shown an increased
support for Democratic candidates – 36 percent supported Bill Clinton in 1992, while 73
percent supported Barack Obama in 2012.
555
This support has befuddled Republican
strategists, as Pew Research describes them as “the best-educated, highest-income,
fastest-growing race group in the country.”
556
In 2014, median household income for
Asian-Americans was $74,297; for whites, $60,256; for Hispanics, $42,491; and for
African-Americans, $35,398.
557
Income, as shown by Andrew Gelman and his co-authors
in their book “Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State: Why Americans Vote the
Way They Do,” is one of the most powerful drivers of which political party someone
prefers – generally, the richer people are, the more likely they are to be Republicans.
558

Work ethic is robust among Asian-Americans, who believe by 42 points (69-27)
that “most people can get ahead if they’re willing to work hard,” compared to all

555
Thomas B. Edsall, "Why Are Asian-Americans Such Loyal Democrats?" The New York Times.
November 04, 2015. Accessed January 10, 2016. http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/04/opinion/why-are-
asian-americans-such-loyal-democrats.html?_r=0.
556
"Asian Americans." Pew Research Centers Social Demographic Trends Project. June 18, 2012.
Accessed January 12, 2016. http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2012/06/19/the-rise-of-asian-americans/.
557
Edsall, “Asian-Americans Loyal Democrats.”
558
Andrew Gelman, "Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State: Why Americans Vote the Way They
Do." (Princeton University: 2008): 167.

179.
American adults – 18 points (58-40).
559
Less tangible characteristics of Asian Americans,
such as an emphasis on discipline in child rearing and a penchant for entrepreneurship,
should make them Republicans.
560
American Enterprise Institute’s Charles Murray noted,
“If you are looking for a natural Republican constituency, Asians should define ‘natural.’
And yet something has happened to define conservatism in the minds of Asians as deeply
unattractive.”
561

If Asian Americans and American conservatives share many of the same
characteristics, why don’t they vote Republican? The first reason is racial, as the
Republican Party may have directly or indirectly pushed Asian Americans away by
spurring their feelings of social exclusion, stemming from their ethnic background. Many
studies, like Henri Tajfel and John Turner’s work on the psychology of intergroup
relations, have shown that “one’s identification with a broad category of people — be it
on the basis of language, ethnic or racial solidarity or some other trait — is important
politically.”
562
Republican rhetoric implying that the (non-white) “takers” are plundering
the (white) “makers” has cultivated a perception that the Republican Party is less
welcoming of minorities.
563
This could explain why Asian Americans, despite their
“maker” status, prefer the Democratic Party — even if the GOP doesn’t specifically
discriminate against them.
Students from Vanderbilt University conducted a study titled, “Why Do Asian
Americans Identify as Democrats?” in 2014, that explains why Asian-Americans strongly

559
“Asian Americans.”
560
Alexander Kuo, Cecilia Hyunjung Mo, and Neil Malhorta. "Why Are Asian Americans Democrats?"
POLITICO Magazine. March 18, 2014. Accessed March 14, 2016.
http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2014/03/asian-americans-democrats-104763.
561
Murray, Charles. "Why Aren't Asians Republicans?" American Enterprise Institute. November 26, 2012.
Accessed March 14, 2016. http://www.aei.org/publication/why-arent-asians-republicans/.
562
Kuo, Mo, and Malhorta. "Why Are Asian Americans Democrats?"
563
Kuo, Mo, and Malhorta. "Why Are Asian Americans Democrats?"

180.
identify with the Democratic Party while having seemingly Republican demographic
attributes. They point to:
“…social exclusion and intergroup commonality. According to the first
hypothesis, social exclusion arises from Asian Americans’ perceptions that they
are viewed as less “American,” and associate these feelings with the Republican
Party. The second hypothesis is that Asian Americans exhibit intergroup
commonality; they believe they have shared interests with other ethnic minorities
that already support the Democratic Party. As a result, Asian Americans align
themselves politically with these minority groups rather than with whites.”
564

Many Asian-Americans also feel like they aren’t treated equally. According to the
“2008 National Asian American Survey,” nearly 40 percent of Asian Americans suffered
one of the following forms of racial discrimination in their lifetime: being unfairly denied
a job or fired; unfairly denied a promotion at work; unfairly treated by the police; unfairly
prevented from renting or buying a home; treated unfairly at a restaurant or other place of
service; or been a victim of a hate crime.
565
Self-reported racial discrimination was
positively correlated with identification with the Democratic Party over the Republican
Party.
566

With Hispanic voters, many pollsters point to immigration as the defining issue
that causes the massive wedge of support between the two parties. While threats of
deportation many not help the Republican’s cause in patching up their strained
relationship with America’s fastest rising cohort, it isn’t the only reason. The National

564
Alexander Kuo, Neil A. Malhotra, and Cecilia Hyunjung Mo. "Why Do Asian Americans Identify as
Democrats? Testing Theories of Social Exclusion and Intergroup Solidarity." SSRN Electronic Journal,
(2014): 1.
565
"National Asian American Survey, 2008." Resource Center for Minority Data. 2008. Accessed January
10, 2016. http://www.icpsr.umich.edu/icpsrweb/RCMD/studies/31481.
566
Kuo, Mo, and Malhorta. "Why Are Asian Americans Democrats?"

181.
Review’s Heather MacDonald cites a March 2011 poll by Moore Information, which
found the following:
567

• “Republican economic policies were a stronger turn-off for Hispanic voters in
California than Republican positions on illegal immigration.”
• Twenty-nine percent of Hispanic voters were suspicious of the Republican Party
on class-warfare grounds — “it favors only the rich”; “Republicans are selfish and
out for themselves”; “Republicans don’t represent the average person”– compared
with 7 percent who objected to Republican immigration stances.

John Echeveste, founder of the oldest Latino marketing firm in southern
California, speaks about Hispanic politics. “What Republicans mean by ‘family values’
and what Hispanics mean are two completely different things. We are a very
compassionate people, we care about other people and understand that government has a
role to play in helping people.”
568

Since the Millennial generation is the most ethnically pluralistic, it’s important to
understand how the largest, most politically unclaimed generation views government.
Reason and YouGov conducted a robust and intricate survey in 2014, collecting the
responses of over 2,000 young adults. Judging by the results, while the Democrats
currently hold an advantage among this generation, there is potential for Republicans to
make inroads:
569

• 34 percent of Americans aged 18-29 are Independents, compared to 11 percent of
Americans 30 and older.

567
Heather MacDonald, "Why Hispanics Don't Vote for Republicans." National Review Online. November
7, 2012. Accessed January 10, 2016. http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/332916/why-hispanics-dont-
vote-republicans-heather-mac-donald.
568
MacDonald, “Why Hispanics Don’t Vote for Republicans.”
569
"Millennials: The Politically Unclaimed Generation." Reason - Rupe Public Opinion Survey (2014): 14-
58.

182.
Figure 49: Millennials are More Independent and Less Republican than Americans Over
(Reason-Rupe Spring 2014 Millennial Poll)
570

• Millennials become more Republican as they buy a home and get married (21
percent – 34 percent).
Figure 50: Millennials Become Less Independent and More Republican as They
Buy Homes and Get Married (Reason-Rupe Spring 2014 Millennial Poll)
571

• Many liberal Millennials define their ideology chiefly on social issues (most
notably LGBT equality).
• Many moderates espouse both liberal and conservative views.
• 57 percent prefer a meritocratic society while 40 percent favor an egalitarian.
• 48 percent believe the government does not have a responsibility in reducing the
income gap, while 45 percent says they do.
• The majority of Millennials are socially liberal and fiscally centrist:

570
"Millennials: The Politically Unclaimed Generation."
571
"Millennials: The Politically Unclaimed Generation."

183.
Figure 51: Millennials are Social Liberals and Fiscal Centrists (Reason-
Rupe Spring 2014 Millennial Poll)
572

• 53 percent would vote for a socially liberal, fiscally conservative candidate.
• Millennials don’t have faith in either party in addressing America’s most pressing
issues.
• Opposition to wealth redistribution rises with income:
Figure 52: Opposition to Redistribution Rises With Income (Reason-
Rupe Spring 2014 Millennial Poll)
573

• Less willing to expand the social safety net with higher income:

572
"Millennials: The Politically Unclaimed Generation."
573
"Millennials: The Politically Unclaimed Generation."

184.

Figure 53: Millennials are Less Willing to Pay More to Expand Social Safety Net the More Money
they Earn (Reason-Rupe Spring 2014 Millennial Poll)
574

• 63 percent believe the government favors special interests over public interest.
• 55 percent want to start their own business.
• Millennials favor capitalism over socialism but believe the government should do
more to help society.
• 36 percent believe the government can promote economic growth, 37 percent
believe the free market promotes economic growth and 27 percent isn’t sure.

Given the Asian and Latino proclivity to liberal policies and government
programs, the Democratic support among those groups is safer than African-American
and Millennials. Since Millennials will comprise the majority of the American workforce
and electorate in 2020, as well as contain the largest segments of African-Americans,
Latinos and Asians, the Democrats should start pondering ways to sustain their advantage
with this group in order to ensure long-term prosperity. Otherwise, this party neutral,
entrepreneurial, pragmatic generation can be susceptible to Republican cordiality if the
GOP adapts to this intergenerational voting gap.
Kristen Anderson, co-founder of Echelon Insights, an opinion research, data
analysis and digital intelligence firm, said she was “cautiously optimistic” that the
Republican Party could win back young voters, and even sees “a huge opportunity” for

574
"Millennials: The Politically Unclaimed Generation."

185.
the GOP.
575
Although young voters are “not enamored with the Republican Party,” they
are also disappointed in the Democratic Party, as they simply see them as the lesser of
two bad options. Millennials are disillusioned with institutions in general, and tend to
reject labels and partisanship: “This is not a generation that is fully in the tank for the
Democratic Party anymore.”
576

Anderson also suggests the Republicans reshape their messaging to focus on
“solving the problems of the future.”
577
An opportunity to reach young voters lies with
making “a case that they understand the new ways that Americans are living, and have
policies that are adapted to that reality” and championing public sector and regulatory
reform to make government “more efficient, more effective and more suited to the era in
which we live,” presents an opportunity.
578
“Being a party of reforming, rather than
necessarily getting rid of the government altogether, presents opportunity for a pragmatic
generation.”
579
Conversely, being a party of reforming government, rather than making it
“bigger,” can also benefit the Democrats.
William Frey, senior fellow at the Brookings Institute echoes a similar sentiment:
“The data says that if Republicans focus on economic issues and stay away from social
ones like gay marriage, they can make serious inroads with Millennials.”
580

Given the academic and historic research on voting patterns, minority voters and
Millennial voters have grown sour with the GOP because of their perceived intolerance

575
"Kristen Soltis Anderson: Can Republicans Win Millennials in 2016?" Shorenstein Center of Media,
Politics and Public Policy. October 06, 2015. Accessed January 10, 2016.
http://shorensteincenter.org/kristen-soltis-anderson/.
576
“Kristen Soltis Anderson.”
577
“Kristen Soltis Anderson.”
578
“Kristen Soltis Anderson.”
579
“Kristen Soltis Anderson.”
580
Daniel J. McGraw. "The GOP Is Dying Off. Literally." POLITICO Magazine. May 17, 2015. Accessed
December 8, 2016. http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/05/the-gop-is-dying-off-literally-118035.

186.
of diversity; outdated, religiously-influenced values; and the notion that they don’t care
about everyday Americans. If the Republicans flip the script and revisit their platforms
and messaging around utilizing the government to make the free market more effective in
expanding prosperity while becoming more tolerant on social issues, voters could flock to
the GOP. A similar narrative can apply across the board to Millennials and minority
voters that can fit within a conservative or libertarian framework – downplay opposition
to marriage equality and LGBT rights; push forward on comprehensive immigration
reform; make the business environment more friendly for entrepreneurship and start-ups;
criminal justice reform with an emphasis of ending mass incarceration; and scaling back
the War on Drugs. Adopting these issues, or even downplaying opposition to them in
favor of focusing on revitalizing the economy, could potentially chip away at the
Democrat’s stronghold amongst these voters. Contrariwise, this also provides the
Democrats an opportunity to redefine liberalism and progressivism to meet 21
st
century
demands of legislative reform and prove an activist government can provide Americans
essential services and jumpstart a laggard economy. Given the dearth of Democratic
rural, white working-class, and senior support, they cannot afford to lose a significant
portion of their coalition without making inroads with the Republican base. The
Democrats must be wary of this, or else their pronounced struggles in 2010 and 2014 may
continue to linger.

187.
CHAPTER THREE:
REBRANDING A 21
ST
CENTURY DEMOCRATIC PARTY

USE THE SOCIAL NETWORKING TACTICS EMPLOYED BY THE OBAMA
CAMPAIGNS TO RAISE VOTER AWARENESS, INVIGORATE THE BASE, AND
REBRAND THE PARTY
Since the onset of his campaign, Bernie Sanders has called for a “political
revolution” in the United States, and his presidential bid has reinvigorated progressivism,
as it has been thrust into the national spotlight. While a revolution may be a tad
melodramatic, beneath all the pomp is a nugget of truth. The Democrats need to reframe
our national discourse to better explain how government can play a role in fostering
economic growth, innovation, and opportunity.
Sanders was a guest on Real Time with Bill Maher on October 2015, and the two
described explaining socialism to the average American voter. The discussion ensued as
follows:
“Maher: We have to teach Americans what this is. And I don’t know if we’re
doing that yet. I don’t think most Americans realize we’re already socialist.

Sanders: In certain respects. Let’s start off with what it is we want to change. We
have to deal with the grotesque level of wealth and income inequality in America.
Very few people think it is acceptable and moral that the top one-tenth of one
percent owns almost as much wealth as the bottom 90 percent. That we have seen
a proliferation …

Maher: See, Bernie … you always say that. I think even the Republicans are not
for income inequality. They hear that, but it doesn’t compute that that’s gonna be
solved by socialism. Socialism is the programs that they already like. They like
Social Security. That’s socialism. They like Medicare. They like the V.A. They
like the military. It’s already a socialist country.

Sanders: You’re exactly right… Well, it’s not a socialist country…

Maher: Quasi!

188.
Sanders: Quasi. There are socialist programs. But what we have got to do is
remind fellow Americans that every other major country on Earth guarantees
health care to all people as a RIGHT – and they do it more cost-effectively than
we do. We have got to inform the American people that we’re the only major
country on Earth that doesn’t guarantee paid family and medical leave. We have
got to remind the American people that there’s something a little bit crazy when
we have more people in jail, disproportionately people of color, than every other
major country on Earth.

Maher: Alright. But I don’t know if we’re un-demonizing the word “socialism.”
This is my thing tonight – to get you to un-demonize this word because they do
polls on who people would vote for. Like would people vote for a woman, a Jew,
a black – those are in the low 90s, like 92, 93 percent of the people. … Seventy-
five percent of Americans would now vote for a gay person – that’s a big change
from 10 years ago. Sixty percent would vote for a Muslim. Fifty-eight percent
would vote for an atheist. Socialist is at 47 percent – it’s at the very bottom of the
barrel. They hear socialist and they think herpes, Bernie.

Sanders: Then, what we do – we have to make the movement, if you like,
correlate to what we’re talking about, because on every one of the major issues I
am talking about, the American people agree.”
581

This discussion reveals the deficiency in the Democratic Party’s ability to brand
themselves and inspire their voters. While a far left-wing economic agenda may be a
tough sell, this interview does show that the American electoral process is riddled with
misinformation and voter disinterest, especially when, on an issue-by-issue basis, a
majority of Americans favor more Democratic platforms than Republican. The lack of
buzz around midterm elections was mentioned earlier, and this presents a major obstacle
to a party, whose base is comprised of youth and low-income, minority votes who are
generally more disillusioned and disenfranchised than the average American.
Furthermore, the Democrats also have to overcome voter ignorance in order to
successfully establish a clear brand and make their base understand the consequences of
elections at all levels of government.

581
Kyle Kulinski. "Bill Maher & Bernie Sanders Explain 'Socialism' To America." YouTube. October 19,
2015. Accessed January 15, 2016. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=INN2Xyn0Xr4.

189.
Ilya Somin, professor of law at George Mason University, discusses voter
ignorance in his Forbes article, “What No One Talks About During Election Season:
Voter Ignorance.” His first point is the average voter isn’t a political fan:
“Many rely on ‘retrospective voting’: judging incumbents based on whether
things have improved or deteriorated during their time in office. Unfortunately,
effective use of shortcuts often requires knowledge that most voters don’t have.
To be good retrospective voters, we have to know which events are under the
control of the incumbents, and which are not. Often, ignorant voters reward or
punish incumbents based on things they do not actually control. The biggest
determinant of most electoral outcomes are short-term economic trends, even
though incumbents usually have little control over them.”
582

He then elaborates on “foot voters”:

“People vote with their feet when they choose which local government to live
under, or make decisions in the private sector. ‘Foot voters’ have powerful
incentives to seek out relevant information and use it wisely, because they know
that their decisions matter. Most of us spend more time seeking out information
when we decide what new television to buy than on deciding who should be our
next president or which party should control Congress. Few of us believe that our
next TV is really more important than our next president. But we devote more
effort to the former choice because we know it will actually make a difference,
whereas the latter almost certainly will not.”
583

What the Real Time interview with Bernie Sanders and Somin’s depiction of voter
ignorance shows is the Democrats can take some cues from Barack Obama’s 2008 and
2012 Presidential campaign in order to mobilizing their coalition, informing American
voters and rebranding the party. The following are tactics the Democratic Party should
employ.

582
Ilya Somin. "What No One Talks About During Election Season: Voter Ignorance." Forbes. November
3, 2014. Accessed January 12, 2016. http://www.forbes.com/sites/realspin/2014/11/03/what-no-one-talks-
about-during-election-season-voter-ignorance/#1db0422a3a22.
583
Somin, “What No One Talks About.”

190.
1. COMMUNICATE AN UPLIFTING, POSITIVE MESSAGE AT ALL LEVELS

Barack Obama’s 2008 campaign was based on two facets: a change in the White
House and a change in the way Washington worked by replacing divisive partisanship
with a more cooperative approach and discarding the excessive influence of lobbyists for
a greater concern for public well-being. Obama was able to channel the nationwide
frustration with the Bush Administration to a more all-encompassing disdain for politics
as usual.
He concentrated this need for change and a hope for a better future on three areas
of public policy: major health care reform; reshaping the economy through changes in
energy consumption and environmental protection; and increased taxes for top income
earners, combined with tax cuts for working-class individuals.
584
He stood firm against
the unpopular neoconservative foreign policies by advocating for a reduced presence in
Iraq and concentrating on winning the war in Afghanistan.
The 2016 Primaries have been greeted with surprises from Bernie Sanders and
Donald Trump, as both men who are polar opposites politically emphasize populist
support. While the Donald spews hatred, apocalyptic gloom, and a yearning to return to a
romanticized past to channel frustration among his base, Bernie has taken the torch of
positive messaging from Obama, with his campaign slogan “Change You Can Believe
In.” Whether either of these candidate win is left to the voters, but populist campaigns are
gaining traction in American politics, as the average voter continues to feel
underrepresented while big business prospers. Hillary Clinton has also adopted a middle-
class–centric campaign, dubbing herself a “progressive who gets things done,” while the

584
"Campaign Themes, Strategies, and Developments." University of Michigan: ICPSR. 2009. Accessed
January 14, 2016. http://www.icpsr.umich.edu/icpsrweb/instructors/setups2008/campaign-strategies.jsp.

191.
Republican stable of candidates define their campaigns by fear, firm opposition to a
Democratic agenda, and preserving hyper-patriotism through “traditional values.” This
positive messaging seems to be helping both Clinton’s and Sanders’s Presidential
prospects, as each candidate has leads over their Republican competitors in many
hypothetical Presidential matchups as of March 2016, according to CNN polls.
585

This type of uplifting messaging isn’t limited to recent Democratic campaigns. In
1980, in the aftermath of an unbridled Carter Administration, Ronald Reagan’s “Let’s
Make America Great Again” communicated a “peace through strength” foreign policy
and an emphasis of getting government out of the economy in order to promote
individualism and prosperity for all. Building on the momentum of his first term, Reagan
drove his message home in his reelection year with “It’s Morning Again in America,”
affirming America’s strong world presence, the successes of his administration and the
need for continued conservative leadership. Both campaigns inspired patriotism and a
new brand of politics that starkly contrasted the decades of liberalism that previously
dominated American politics. Both his campaigns communicated a clear and concise
narrative: “government isn’t the solution, government is the problem.” His simple,
charismatic, and direct messaging was easily digestible and awe inspiring.
There are both psychological and voting behavioral research that justifies the
focus on positive campaigning.
In democracies, elections are essentially popularity contests. If the candidates’
goal is to get the majority of voters to “like” them, their best option would be to behave
and campaign positively, since “people feel closer and more connected to others when

585
Jennifer Agiesta. "Poll: Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders Both Top Trump." CNN. March 2, 2016.
Accessed March 15, 2016. http://www.cnn.com/2016/03/01/politics/donald-trump-hillary-clinton-bernie-
sanders-poll/.

192.
they experience positive emotions,” making them “more likely to make favorable
judgments” of those people.
586
If people naturally prefer positive people to negative ones,
then, the ideal strategy for a candidate would be to make their campaign as positive and
as cordial as possible. If “people prefer to experience positive emotions more than
negative ones,”
587
presumably, voters will be more likely to vote for leaders who make
them feel positive emotions than for those who either fail to do so or make them feel
negative emotions.
588

Negative campaigns have become fairly predominant in American politics,
specifically through attack ads. However, if potential politicians want to maximize the
positivity of their campaigns, they should seek to eliminate aspects of their candidacy that
elicit negative emotions among voters, whenever possible.
589
Although negative ads and
vitriolic rhetoric are intended to make constituents associate toxic emotions with the
targeted candidate, they are usually intelligent enough to realize that the source of these
attacks is the target’s opposition. Although attacks are a staple in American elections,
running a negative campaign can easily backfire on those who utilize these tactics. One
study found that after being presented with various remarks made by different candidates
during a recent political campaign, “explicit evaluations of the source, but not the
opponent, were less favorable after negative as compared to positive campaigns. In
contrast, implicit evaluations were less favorable for both candidates after negative

586
Peter A. Gregory, "Comparing the Effectiveness of Positive and Negative Political Campaigns." Student
Pulse (2015): 1.
587
Vassilis Dalakas, Robert Madrigal, and Keri L. Anderson, “’We Are Number One!; The Phenomenon of
Basking-in-Reflected-Glory and Its Implications for Sports Marketing.” (London: Psychology Press): 69.
588
Gregory, “Comparing the Effectiveness,” 1.
589
Gregory, “Comparing the Effectiveness,” 1.

193.
campaigns.”
590
Essentially, when a candidate employs negative rhetoric, it implicitly
makes both candidates less appealing and explicitly made only him or herself less
appealing. This suggests using such rhetoric is actually more helpful to a candidate’s
opponent than it is for them.
591
In contrast, another study showed that positive ads
“proved more effective in increasing both the sponsoring candidate’s favorability and
participants’ reported likelihood of voting him.”
592
Both studies indicate the best way for
a candidate to increase their favorability among voters is to run a positive campaign.
Much has been written about voters’ attitudes towards elections, their perceptions,
and how positive and negative campaigns affect voters differently. The 2005 study “What
Voters Want From Political Campaigns Communications” notes:
“Americans love to hate political campaigns. Majorities believe that ‘negative,
attack-oriented campaigning is undermining and damaging our democracy’ (82
percent), that unethical practices in campaigns occur ‘very’ or ‘fairly’ often (58
percent), and that ‘in terms of ethics and values, election campaigns in this
country have gotten worse in the last 20 years’ (53 percent).”
593

This assertion that an overwhelming majority of voters believe negative
campaigns undermine and damage democracy is largely supported by a myriad of
studies. Michael Basil, Caroline Schooler, and Byon Reeves found that “data suggest that
candidates who run negative ads ‘turn voters off’ to both candidates,”
594
in their study
“Positive and Negative Political Advertising: Effectiveness of Ads and Perceptions of

590
Luciana Carraro, Bertram Gawronski, and Luigi Castelli. "Losing on All Fronts: The Effects of Negative
versus Positive Person-based Campaigns on Implicit and Explicit Evaluations of Political Candidates."
British Journal of Social Psychology (2010): 453.
591
Gregory, “Comparing the Effectiveness,” 1.
592
Sean Donahue, "The Effects of Negative Political Advertising on Young College-Educated Voters."
(Master's thesis, Bryant University, 2011).
593
Keena Lipsitz, Christine Trost, Matthew Grossmann, and John Sides. "What Voters Want From Political
Campaign Communication." Political Communication (2005): 338.
594
Basil, Michael, Schooler, Caroline, and Reeves, Byron. “Positive and Negative Political Advertising:
Effectiveness of ads and Perceptions of Candidates,” In Television and Political Advertising: Volume I:
Psychological Processes. Ed. Frank Biocca et al. (London: Routledge, 1991), 256.

194.
Candidates.” In the book, “Going Negative: How Campaign Advertising Shrinks and
Polarizes the Electorate,” authors Stephen Ansolabehere and Shanto Iyenger
systematically display how such effects cause the overall number of engaged voters to
decrease as a result.
595
In their study, “Do Negative Campaigns Mobilize or Suppress
Turnout? Clarifying the Relationship between Negativity and Participation,” authors Kim
Fridkin Kahn and Patrick J. Kenney found “when campaigns degenerate into
unsubstantiated and shrill attacks, voters tend to stay home,”
596
and Young Min’s study,
“News Coverage of Negative Political Campaigns,” found “personality attacks” between
politicians “significantly depress” voters’ intentions to participate in elections.
597
Results
from Scott Desposato’s study, “The Impact of Campaign Messages in New Democracies:
Results from an Experiment in Brazil,” “confirmed that negative advertising reduces
participation, regime support, and candidate support” and additionally showed that “while
attack advertising did not affect participation rates for higher education groups, subjects
with little political knowledge were vulnerable to being pushed out of politics,”
indicating that the effect such ads have on voters is mediated somewhat by education
levels.
598

599

Even though negative campaigns theoretically reduce voter turnout during
elections, according to the aforementioned research, it doesn’t necessarily mean positive

595
Stephen Ansolabehere and Shanto Iyenger. “Going Negative: How Political Ads Shrink and Polarize the
Electorate,” (Washington D.C.: Free Press, 1996), 99-100.
596
Kim Fridkin Kahn, and Patrick J. Kenney. "Do Negative Campaigns Mobilize or Suppress Turnout?
Clarifying the Relationship between Negativity and Participation." The American Political Science Review
93 (1999): 885.
597
Young Min, "News Coverage of Negative Political Campaigns: An Experiment of Negative Campaign
Effects on Turnout and Candidate Preference." The Harvard International Journal of Press/Politics 9
(2004): 96.
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/249809183_News_Coverage_of_Negative_Political_Campaigns.
598
Desposato, Scott. "The Impact of Campaign Messages in New Democracies: Results From An
Experiment in Brazil." UCSD Research (2007): 14.
599
Gregory, “Comparing the Effectiveness,” 1.

195.
campaigns are always a better strategic choice. But, with studies showing that “more
positive campaigns have higher participation rates”
600
and such campaigns in past
elections “boosted turnout,”
601
this evidence, combined with research that shows higher
turnout increases the higher favorability of liberal policies, shows that positive
campaigning has the potential to benefit the Democratic Party and boost voter turnout
and civic engagement. If the positivity of a candidate’s campaign increases the total
number of voters making their way to the polls, the odds are that the majority of the
voters included in that increase will vote for the candidate whose positivity wrested them
to vote in the first place.
Despite the evidence discussed above, there are several studies that “contradict
the disheartening effect of negative campaigns and the mobilizing effect of positive
ones.”
602
Ken Goldstein and Paul Freedman, in their study, “Campaign Advertising and
Voter Turnout: New Evidence for a Stimulation Effect,” argue that “exposure to negative
campaign ads actually stimulates voter turnout.”
603
The study, “Inside the Black Box of
Negative Campaign Effects: Three Reasons Why Negative Campaigns Mobilize,” shows
“negative campaigns stimulate problem awareness, stimulate anxiety about candidates,
and make people perceive races as closer,”
604
meaning negative campaigns can increase
voter turnout. Donald Trump’s present campaign serves as a prime example. A more
recent meta-analysis of the studies found there is no “reliable evidence that negative
campaigning depresses voter turnout,” but additionally concludes, “all told, the research

600
Ansolabehere and Iyenger, “Going Negative,” 905.
601
Stephen Ansolabehere, Shanto Iyengar, Adam Simon, and Nicholas Valentino. "Does Attack
Advertising Demobilize the Electorate?" The American Political Science Review (1994): 838.
602
Gregory, “Comparing the Effectiveness,” 1.
603
Ken Goldstein and Paul Freedman. "Campaign Advertising and Voter Turnout: New Evidence for a
Stimulation Effect." The Journal of Politics (2002): 721.
604
Paul S. Martin, "Inside the Black Box of Negative Campaign Effects: Three Reasons Why Negative
Campaigns Mobilize." Political Psychology (2004): 557.

196.
literature does not bear out the idea that negative campaigning is an effective means of
winning votes.”
605

This analysis still suggests, or at least leaves room for the argument, that positive
campaigns tend to be more effective than negative campaigns.
606
Although Democratic
candidates should keep their campaigns as clean as possible, it doesn’t mean they can’t or
shouldn’t be aggressive. The battle between Clinton and Sanders has featured jabs from
both camps – Sanders has questioned the former Secretary of State’s foreign policy
judgments, her ties to Wall Street, and inconsistencies in her political beliefs while
Clinton has doubted the Vermont Senator’s ability to achieve his bold policy proposals.
While these are attacks, they are substantive ones, as they are related to their ideas and
credibility, not just petty personal assaults that have become commonplace in
contemporary American politics. They have produced thoughtful debates while
prompting voters to examine each candidate’s respective records via Google searches and
social media discussions.
607

The Democrats shouldn’t limit this type of messaging to Presidential campaigns
however. They need to generate this type of enthusiasm for Congressional and
Gubernatorial elections, as well as their party platforms. Stressing bold, progressive
Democratic leadership and policies that work for the interests of the middle-class and
disenfranchised will give voters something to believe in and motivate them to get more
involved in the political process.

605
Richard R. Lau, Lee Sigelman, and Ivy Brown Rovner. "The Effects of Negative Political Campaigns: A
Meta-Analytic Reassessment." The Journal of Politics J Politics 69, no. 4 (2007): 1176.
606
Gregory, “Comparing the Effectiveness,” 1.
607
Vicens, AJ. "Here's What People Were Googling during the Democratic Debate." Mother Jones.
February 5, 2015. Accessed March 15, 2016. http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2016/02/what-people-
google-democratic-debate-hillary-bernie.

197.
In an interview, a Democratic political consultant who requested to have their
identity concealed, argues the Democrats should focus on the states, rather than the
federal government, to show how they can make a positive impact on people’s lives:
“You have to have proving ground of what you’re capable of doing. The federal
government is the hardest place to get things done. Where you can be a lot more
effective, and be closer to peoples’ lives, is the states. The biggest mistake the
Democrats made in 2010, wasn’t that they put themselves in a position to lose
seats at a federal level, it was that they lost everything on a state level, which hurt
redistricting, and made it nearly impossible to get back the House before 2022.

What we’ve seen in California, is that when Democrats control government, they
can be extremely effective. You need to target the states, and you show voters
there what you’re capable of getting done. That’s your farm team, these are the
people who are going to be running for House and Senate seats. It also gives you
a valid basis for voters since you can say, ‘Hey! We’ve fought the fights. You
know what we’re capable of accomplishing, vote us into Washington to continue
this.’”
608

As alluded to in the SWOT analysis, many low-income, minority and young
voters have grown cynical of the political process because they feel their voice isn’t
heard, their votes don’t make a difference and their interests are often left unrepresented.
Broadcasting a hopeful message of a future of economic opportunity, diversity and
societal well-being will be a welcome contrast to the Republican scare-tactics and
establishment politics.

2. ENCOURAGE DISCUSSION, NETWORK-BUILDING, INFORMATION-SHARING
AND ENGAGEMENT VIA SOCIAL MEDIA

Just as JFK was the television President, Barack Obama revolutionized campaign
outreach by heavily investing in social media networking in order to invigorate the youth
vote and coalesce what would’ve been disinterested voters. He did this with involvement

608
Democratic Political Consultant. "Interview with Democratic Political Consultant."

198.
through empowerment.
609
Although Howard Dean previously used the Internet to secure
donations and build networks, his online presence didn’t translate to offline action.
Obama’s team realized the potential of online grassroots engagement and learned from
Dean’s campaign to better effectively harness the power of social media to broadcast
information, garner support and engage voters.
610
As his campaign inspired millions of
young and minority voters to participate in the political process, his presence was felt all
over the Internet, from Facebook and Twitter to his own personal website and YouTube.
“The Web site for the Obama campaign organized over one hundred fifty
thousand events, created more than thirty-five thousand groups, had over 1.5
million accounts, and raised over $600 million form three million donors. The
campaign used YouTube for free advertising, sending the address of ads to
supporters, and encouraging them to pass the address along to friends and family.
His campaign material was watched for 14.5 million hours – on broadcast
television, that would have cost $47 million. Obama’s Facebook site had
3,176,886 supporters and he had 987,923 MySpace friends. The campaign used
text messaging to stay connected to youth voters and send e-mails to counter
attacks. In general, Obama’s high-tech campaign used the Internet to fact check
information, counter attacks, strengthen connection to supporters, and have an
‘always on,’ 24/7 presence.”
611

The Obama campaign reached 5 million supporters on 15 different social
Networks over the course of the campaign season. “No other candidate has ever
integrated the full picture the way [Obama] has, that’s what’s really new about his
campaign,” said Michael Malbin, executive director of the Campaign Finance Institute.
612

The DNC should prioritize bolstering its social media presence to help promote
their candidates, coordinate with affiliated organizations and PACs to mobilize voters,
and share information regarding policy proposals and upcoming elections. Pew Research

609
Jennifer Lynn. Aaker, Andy Smith, and Carlye Adler. “The Dragonfly Effect: Quick, Effective, and
Powerful Ways to Use Social Media to Drive Social Change,” (San Francisco: Jossey-Bass, 2010), 4.
610
Aaker, Smith, and Adler. “The Dragonfly Effect,” 4.
611
John Allen Hendricks, and Robert E. Denton. “Communicator-in-chief: How Barack Obama Used New
Media Technology to Win the White House,” (Lanham: Lexington Books, 2010), 12.
612
Aaker, Smith, and Adler. “The Dragonfly Effect,” 5.

199.
has analyzed 27 different surveys that have tracked adult social media usage between
2005 and 2015:
Figure 54: American Adults who Use Social Media (2005-2015) (Pew Research)
613

Overall, as of October 2015, nearly two-thirds of Americans (65 percent) are
engaged on at least one social networking site, up from seven percent in 2005.
614

Millennials lead the way, with 90 percent, and senior citizen usage has tripled since 2010,
from 11 percent to 35 percent today.
615
Pew found there is little to no discrepancies in
usage between gender and ethnicities.
616
While rural citizens lag behind suburban (68
percent) and urban residents (64 percent), over half (58 percent) are now on social media,
up from 18 percent in 2008.
617

613
"Social Media Usage: 2005-2015." Pew Research Center Internet Science Tech. October 08, 2015.
Accessed January 21, 2016. http://www.pewinternet.org/2015/10/08/social-networking-usage-2005-2015/.
614
“Social Media Usage”
615
“Social Media Usage”
616
“Social Media Usage”
617
“Social Media Usage”

200.
Figure 55: American Social Media Usage (AdWeek January 15)
618

Age
Facebook
(156.5 million)
Twitter
(52.9 million)
Pintrest
(44.5 million)
Tumblr
(19.1 million)
Instagram
(60.3 million)
18-24
16.7%
(26.2 million)
22.6%
(11.7 million)
20.4%
(9.1 million)
23.3%
(4.5 million)
27.6%
(16.7 million)
25-34
20.5%
(32.1 million)
21.5%
(11.3 million)
22.0%
(10.2 million)
27.0%
(5.3 million)
32.2%
(19.4 million)
35-44
16.1%
(25.2 million)
16.4%
(8.7 million)
21.3%
(9.5 million)
15.5%
(3.0 million)
8.8%
(5.3 million)
45-54
14.4%
(22.5 million)
12.7%
(6.7 million)
12.9%
(5.7 million)
10.8%
(2.1 million)
7.5%
(4.5 million)
55-64
10.9%
(17.1 million)
12.7 percent
(6.7 million)
10.2 percent
(4.5 million)
6.2 percent
(1.2 million)
4.4%
(2.6 million)
65+
6.8%
(10.6 million)
5.8%
(2.7 million)
6.5%
(2.9 million)
2.2%
(0.4 million)
0.6%
(0.4 million)
* Excludes Snapchat

Since Adweek’s research, Instagram has exploded, as it announced in October
2015, it surpassed 400 million users worldwide, with around 100 million in the U.S.
alone.
619
The Wall Street Journal reported a Piper Jaffray annual survey of teenagers,
reporting the youngest groups are flocking toward Instagram and Snapchat, mainly
because teenagers are becoming frustrated with their parent’s presence on Facebook.
620

618
"Infographic: Who's Really Using Facebook, Twitter, Pinterest, Tumblr and Instagram in 2015."
AdWeek. January 12, 2015. Accessed January 21, 2016. http://www.adweek.com/news/advertising-
branding/new-social-stratosphere-who-using-facebook-twitter-pinterest-tumblr-and-instagram-2015-and-
beyond-1622.
619
Georgia Wells. "Instagram Says It Now Has 400 Million Users." Wall Street Journal: Digits. September
22, 2015. Accessed March 15, 2016. http://blogs.wsj.com/digits/2015/09/22/instagram-says-it-now-has-
400-million-users/.
620
Deepa Seetharaman, "Survey Finds Teens Prefer Instagram, Twitter, Snapchat for Social Networks."
Wall Street Journal: Digits. October 16, 2015. Accessed March 15, 2016.
http://blogs.wsj.com/digits/2015/10/16/survey-finds-teens-prefer-instagram-snapchat-among-social-
networks/.

201.
Figure 56: Number of Americans on Social Media (AdWeek January 2015)
621

Understanding the importance and ever growing presence of social media is
crucial in utilizing these mediums in engaging voters, especially future generations, in
civic life. Five researchers from the University of Missouri began researching how
Millennials engage with the news and politics since 2008, and found a stark contrast from
previous generations in political socialization. The study found that Millennials receive
news on a daily basis from social media, predominantly Facebook, and social media is
playing an increasingly important role in shaping political viewpoints and participation.
622

“There also has been a shift in how Millennials choose to get involved in politics.
More young people are opting to participate in demonstrations such as the Occupy
and Black Lives Matter movements, as well as political consumerism in which
they either buy or boycott companies’ products according to whether they share
those companies’ values.”
623

621
“Social Media Usage”
622
Veronike Collazo, "Peers, Social Media Play Increasingly Large Role in Youth Political Socialization."
Columbia Missourian. October 30, 2015. Accessed December 8, 2015.
http://www.columbiamissourian.com/news/local/peers-social-media-play-increasingly-large-role-in-youth-
political/article_ff969934-7ea9-11e5-8bf4-fb73f63c5057.html.
623
Collazo, “Peers, Social Media.”

202.
Stefan Pollack, President and CFO of Pollack PR Marketing Group and author of
“Disrupted: From Gen Y to iGen,” discusses the importance of branding and how digital
media has changed messaging for brands in communicating. Understanding this will help
with the changing media landscape and with campaigning to a rapidly changing
electorate, especially with Millennials and Digital Natives (the following generation).
“Millennials and the Digital Natives are demanding to be included in the
conversation. Look at Starbucks with the ‘Red Cup controversy.’ It used to be that
the brand owned its brand positioning, but now that lies with the hearts and minds
of its consumers. Brands were OK with that, because then they can still help
shape it though their own actions. But they still owned messages. These days,
they don’t. Starbucks puts this cup out there, and its message went array. Trying
to be able to take back that message or stay on that message without morphing or
losing the original intent is a brand’s biggest challenge these days. Brands no
longer own their messages.

Now consumers, especially younger ones, are placing social circles around them
that are their sources of influence. These are friends, family or peers that they
trust for information and news. The biggest challenge for brands is to become one
of those sources. Traditional media relations and P.R. is shifting to influencer
relations. Now a brand is looking to influence 10 YouTube stars with 5 million
subscribers each versus CNN, because no one listens to that anymore. They’ll
only listen to it if they need to.

People want to be able to help tell the story. Brands that are comfortable letting go
of their message helped shaped by their audience are the ones that are winning
because people are included. People want their voices heard and want to be
engaged. People want to have a say in the next Fritos Lays flavor, or to be able to
share a Coke with their name on it, because that makes them a part of the
conversation.

The best way for a brand to become a source of influence through social media is
to be a resource along a consumer’s journey. Consumers want to know that a
brand is giving them an authentic experience. If someone is going to Coachella,
they want that brand to be a source of information. People used to care where the
source of information came from, but now they don’t, as long as it validates their
journey.

If a brand can be a touch point along the journey of purchase and consideration,
then that’s fine. There’s a rise in brand journalism – Coca-Cola has a whole brand
journey website. Corporations are almost becoming media companies.

203.
If your campaign only relies on just broadcasting messages, you’re stuck in 1960s
advertisement. Messaging has to involve discussion and audience engagement.”
624

This rise in social media usage presents a huge opportunity for the DNC and
Democratic candidates to engage its coalition. It already has Facebook and Twitter
accounts, where large portions of older Americans are flocking towards, but it can
seriously engage young Americans through Snapchat and Instagram. All of these
mediums can be used to aggregate news from a variety of sources, present infographs and
charts, broadcast policy platforms and initiatives, update voters on elections, remind them
to register and begin discussions on current events.
For example, Snapchat now has a “Discover” feature with various news and
media organizations disseminating various articles, photos, and charts for people to read
on their smartphones and tablets. The upcoming Kansas, Michigan, and Wisconsin
elections present a ripe opportunity to use this platform to implement a more engaging
and targeted social media strategy. Governors Sam Brownback and Scott Walker have
broken up unions, defunded public education, denied funding for public health care, and
signed anti-abortion bills while giving tax breaks to corporations.
625

626
Michigan
Governor Rick Snyder presided over the Flint Water Crisis, as their water has been
contaminated with lead. This was caused by a budget crises, partially due to large
corporate tax breaks, forcing the state to hire private managers that switched Flint’s water

624
Stefan Pollack. "Interview with Stefan Pollack." Interview by author. November 4, 2015.
625
Edward M. Eveld, "Gov. Sam Brownback Cuts Higher Education as Kansas Tax Receipts Fall $53
Million Short." Kansas City Star. March 1, 2016. Accessed March 17, 2016.
http://www.kansascity.com/news/politics-government/article63347152.html.
626
Don Gonyea and Domenico Montanaro. "Scott Walker's Anti-Union Push May Not Prove So Easy As
President." NPR. September 21, 2015. Accessed March 17, 2016.
http://www.npr.org/sections/itsallpolitics/2015/09/15/440413346/scott-walkers-anti-union-push-may-not-
prove-so-easy-as-president.

204.
supply to the unsafe Flint River, in order to save the state $1-$2 million.
627
The DNC can
geotag these states months leading up to the election and aggregate news articles from
both national and local news sources explaining each governor’s policies to better inform
and engage their voters in an effort to increase turnout. Instagram and Pintrest can be
used to portray infographs with captions that explain the data presented. Facebook and
Twitter can be used to initiate conversations with voters.
The DNC should use its official website to link people to each of its social media
accounts and allow people to register with the party to receive newsletters, e-mails, and
texts. Additionally, it can be used to build networks with prominent businessmen,
doctors, policy and think tank individuals, etc., to have them broadcast video blogs on
YouTube, or write for various sources where they can advocate Democratic platforms.
Additionally, they should encourage young Americans to blog on the website to explain
their vision of America, and the ones that generate the most traffic can be shared on their
social media accounts. The DNC can also engage bloggers across the Internet to discuss
politics on their respective channels. This gives the party word-of-mouth endorsements of
its platforms through respective industry leaders while encouraging voters to participate
in political discussions. Lastly, and perhaps most importantly, the website can be a hub of
organizing rallies, voting registration, notifications of important state and Congressional
elections, and used to build relationships with voters by asking questions and listening to
them.

627
Cenk Uygur. "Flint Water Crisis: Who Is To Blame?" YouTube. January 26, 2016. Accessed March 17,
2016. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yj00e1OzXAY.

205.
3. USE THE INTERNET TO ACCUMULATE INDIVIDUAL DONATIONS

In his book, “Hardball,” Chris Matthews says it’s better to receive than to give in
politics. Obama used his official website to gather over 2 million individual donations in
2012, but Bernie Sanders has shattered that total, accumulating 5 million contributions as
of March 2016.
628
Both campaigns have generated unprecedented amounts of grassroots
enthusiasm, especially among young voters. The following is a passage from “Hardball”:
“In 1992 Texas billionaire Ross Perot told the country he would run for president
on one condition: If regular people would buck the two-party establishment, cut
through the red tape and get his name put on the ballot of the fifty states.

It was a masterful strategy. By saying he couldn’t run without them, Perot
deputized an army of supporters. By recruiting folk who had never before been
invited to play a political role, he built a political movement that would rival the
Democratic and Republican parties.

This gutsy dependence on people in cities, suburbs and towns across America was
Ross Perot’s grand note of genius. In every shopping mall there appeared a card
table attended by his willing volunteers. “We’re for Perot,” they would tell
anyone who passed. “I’m for Perot all the way,” each disciple would echo as if
he’d begun the effort himself.

Perot was exploiting a staple of human nature discovered four centuries before by
the Florentine statesman Niccolo Machiavelli. The more you invest in someone,
the more committed you become to him. The best way to win a supporter is to get
a person to do something for you. Or, as Ben Franklin put it, ‘If you want to make
a friend, let someone do you a favor.’”
629

Jimmy Carter recruited people who worked on losing campaigns to help him gain
the Democratic nomination and presidency in 1976, because he figured they were seeking
employment and would have a greater appreciation for his invitation.
630
Matthews argues

628
Anne Gearan, and Matea Gold. "Sanders Keeps Raising Millions - and Spending Them, a Potential
Problem for Clinton." Washington Post. March 5, 2016. Accessed March 15, 2016.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/sanders-keeps-raising-money--and-spending-it-a-potential-
problem-for-clinton/2016/03/05/a8d6d43c-e2eb-11e5-8d98-4b3d9215ade1_story.html.
629
Christopher Matthews “Hardball: How Politics Is Played, Told by One Who Knows the Game.” (New
York: Summit Books, 1988), 62-63.
630
Matthews, “Hardball,” 64.

206.
people don’t mind being used, provided they aren’t being taken for granted.
631
When a
candidate allows constituents to do them favors, it helps them, because it’s as if that voter
is betting on them to succeed by personally investing their time, effort, and money. Once
they start investing in a candidate, it’s in their best interest for that candidate to win, or
else their exertions were made in vein. It’s also much more difficult for an individual to
criticize someone they’re advising or helping, because their mistakes can be partially
attributed to that same individual.
Relying more on small individual campaign contributions will not only get more
people involved with the party, but also build a relationship by making the party more
responsive to individual Americans. The Sanders campaign claims to have accumulated
over 200,000 grassroots volunteers (as of September 2015),
632
while the Obama 2008
campaign said it mobilized as many as 6 million volunteers for Election Day,
633
and the
2012 Obama campaign asserts it had 2.2 million volunteers.
634
Furthermore, the money
can be used to set up structures in each state that can establish networking events,
leadership conferences and voting registration efforts.

631
Matthews, “Hardball,” 69.
632
Rachel Maddow. "Bernie Sanders Boasts 200,000 Grassroots Volunteers, 'I Am Running to Win'"
MSNBC: The Rachel Maddow Show. September 17, 2015. Accessed March 15, 2016.
http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow/watch/sanders-boasts-200-000-grassroots-volunteers-
527738947903.
633
Talbot, David. "How Obama Really Did It." MIT Technology Review. August 19, 2008. Accessed March
15, 2016. https://www.technologyreview.com/s/410644/how-obama-really-did-it/.
634
Pilkington, Ed. "Obama Reserves Thanks for 'best Ever' Team That Put Data at Its Beating Heart." The
Guardian. November 07, 2012. Accessed March 15, 2016.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2012/nov/07/obama-campaign-team-data-ohio.

207.
FIND WAYS TO INCREASE VOTER TURNOUT AND MOBILITY
1. MAKE REGISTERING TO VOTE EASIER

In order for the Democrats to boost their voter turnout, they need to register more
people to vote. Passing laws that restore voting rights and makes registering and voting
easier are the best ways of doing so.
Online registration has gained bipartisan support and several states are pushing
for it. As of December 2015, states have implemented online voter registration and four
have actually passed legislation to implement the technology.
635
Even a number of
Republican election chiefs have supported the technology, including Republican
Colorado Secretary of State Wayne Williams, who said his state has developed a website
that allows voters to register within several minutes and helps avoid common errors that
occur when poll workers attempt to read voters’ handwriting.
636
Ohio’s Jon Husted has
also called for online registration.
637

Restoring voting rights to convicted felons can also be another way to boost voter
turnout. Mark Listes, the founder of Virginia’s Revive My Vote, said he has developed a
digital workspace that he uses to connect volunteers with convicted felons in Virginia to
expand their voting rights, “There is no reason that an administrative difficulty should
keep someone from being able to vote. Our program really creatively uses a low amount
of funding and resources and it mobilizes us in a way that’s helps us make actual
change.”
638
The Democrats should push forward bills that ease the registration process.

635
Kira Lerner, "5 Ways To Fix America’s Dismal Voter Turnout Problem." ThinkProgress. February 09,
2015. Accessed January 21, 2016. http://thinkprogress.org/politics/2015/02/09/3620727/voting-summit-
ideas/.
636
Lerner, “5 Ways to Fix”
637
Lerner, “5 Ways to Fix”
638
Lerner, “5 Ways to Fix”

208.
California just passed a law that will enable those who visit the state DMV to
obtain or renew a driver’s license, or get a state identification card, they’ll be asked to
affirm their eligibility to vote and be given a choice of registering or opting out at the
time.
639
The Golden State has received a lot of attention for this law, as it’s intended to
streamline the process of signing up to vote.
Hillary Clinton is pushing a host of reforms, including automatic voter
registration, a 20-day voting window to include weekends, and efforts to eliminate lines
at the polls.
640
Martin O’Malley, during his presidential campaign, called for a
constitutional amendment to protect voting rights in response to a host of states that have
passed tougher voter ID laws since 2013.
641
Bernie Sanders has called for making
Election Day a federal holiday, so people won’t have to take time off work to vote.
642

GIVE AMERICANS A REASON TO VOTE FOR THEM
1. A NEW GENERATION OF RELATABLE CANDIDATES AND A 21
ST
CENTURY
NARRATIVE

When Barack Obama first ran for President, Americans were confronted with a
charismatic, youthful, energetic, ethnic candidate with an uplifting message and an
affable demeanor. Most importantly, he showed empathy, a willingness to listen, and was
relatable. If the Democrats are to become the party of progress, it needs to recruit and

639
Melanie Mason. "Here's How California's New Voter Registration Law Will Work." Los Angeles Times.
October 16, 2015. Accessed March 17, 2016. http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-me-pol-ca-motor-voter-
law-20151016-html-htmlstory.html.
640
Mike Lilis. "Voting Rights Activists Press for Weekend Vote, Online Registration." The Hill. August 06,
2015. Accessed March 20, 2016. http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/250380-voting-rights-
activists-press-for-weekend-vote-online-registration.
641
Lilis, “Voting Rights Activists.”
642
Jordain Carney. "Sanders: Make Election Day a Holiday." The Hill. August 10, 2015. Accessed March
20, 2016. http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/250784-sanders-want-to-make-election-day-
a-holiday.

209.
develop a diverse group of candidates who reflect America’s eclecticism and are adept at
communicating new, bold ideas and establishing dialogue with constituents.
Cathy J. Cohen writes in her book, “Democracy Remixed: Black Youth and the
Future of American Politics”:
“We have a black president, and he was elected not just because he was able to
get black people to vote for him, but he was able to get white people to vote for
him. He was able to run on his platform of change and how things are going to be
different from the way they were eight years ago and how people didn’t trust the
government. Now people may be able to trust their government again because
they have a president that’s more relatable to them – somebody’s who’s a little bit
younger, somebody who understands the culture, music, technology, and
everything else.”
643

Having young, diverse, and refreshing candidates will help connect people to a
government that they’ve felt has alienated them. If they communicate new ideas and
come from diverse backgrounds, they will better reflect the yearning for change, progress
and America’s changing demographic landscape.
Social media consultant and branding blogger Amy Porterfield discussed the
importance of being relatable in a brand. She uses a term in business called “the
personality differentiator”:
“It demonstrates why you are different from others ... It engages your audience,
capturing their interest and drawing them into your message. It establishes an
ongoing rapport between you and your audience, creating a bond … It proves
there is more to you and your brand than just facts, figures, and fancy technology.
It shows you actually have heart. It transforms your message from boring to
fascinating, increasing both the impact of your message as well as the quality of
the opportunities your messaging generates.”
644

643
Cathy J. Cohen, “Democracy Remixed: Black Youth and the Future of American Politics.” (New York:
Oxford University Press, 2012), 174.
644
Amy Porterfield, "Putting More “You” in Your Business—A Guide to Building Brand Personality."
Amy Porterfield. March 19, 2015. Accessed January 21, 2016. http://www.amyporterfield.com/2015/03/51-
brand-personality/.

210.
David Tyreman writes in his book, “World Famous: How to Give Your Business
a Kick-Ass Brand Identity”:
“When people relate to your story, they connect to your brand. People want to
know the story of your brand: how it started, the funny mishaps and happy
accidents, and the heart – above all the heart. You don’t have to educate
customers about your brand; you just have to know it and let them live vicariously
through it. Your story is the playground of your brand, and it is what make your
brand identity relatable to your superniche.”
645

The Democrats have several members in all levels of government who can form
the base of a new generation for the party:
• California Attorney General Kamala Harris
• Former Nevada Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto
• Illinois Representative Tammy Duckworth
• Missouri Secretary of State Jason Kander
• Connecticut Senator Chris Murphy
• New Mexico Senator Martin Heinrich
• Arizona Representative Kyrsten Sinema
• Former Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick
• Former Texas Senator Wendy Davis
• Florida Representative Alan Grayson

After selecting candidates who are energetic, progressive, diverse and relatable,
they need to effectively communicate their ideas. The campaigns shouldn’t solely focus
on the candidate themselves; it should be a combination of platforms that mean most to
the voters and a caring, dedicated, and relatable candidate willing to fight for these issues.
Dan Cassino and Yasemin Besen Cassino write in their book, “Consuming Politics: Jon
Stewart, Branding, and the Youth Vote in America.”
“Democratic youth are just as apathetic as their Republican and Independent
counterparts. However, the reasons why they are not involved politically are very
different. Democratic youth predominantly relate to politics through issues. They
feel like the open discussion or issues are central to politics. Issues that they find
relatable and important to their lives are at the core of political involvement.

645
David Tyreman, “World Famous: How to Give Your Business a Kick-Ass Brand Identity, “(New York:
American Management Association, 2009), 156.

211.
Often, they do not find relatable issues, therefore, they choose not to be involved
politically.”
646

Having personable candidates of differing backgrounds communicating
progressive and populist issues that inspire people will enable the Democrats to build a
narrative of diversity, reforming government to work with the private sector, and 21
st

century entrepreneurship and innovation, rather than be the party of “big government” –
whatever that means.

2. STAND FOR SOMETHING

The Democrats are simply bad at playing politics and let the Republicans get
away with derailing government and proposing unpopular policies. The gun control
debate is a perfect example of the Democrats’ political ineptitude.
Figure 57: Partisan View on Gun Proposals (Pew Research June 2015)
647

The Republicans currently block any attempt of gun control, despite a swath of
mass shootings. Instead of fighting back, the Democrats have cynically given up, or at
most, meekly propose weak reform bills and tumble like a house of cards once it’s
rejected.

646
Dan Cassino, and Yasemin Besen-Cassino. “Consuming Politics: Jon Stewart, Branding, and the Youth
Vote in America,” (Madison: Fairleigh Dickinson University Press, 2009), 100.
647
"Continued Bipartisan Support for Expanded Background Checks on Gun Sales."

212.
The Republicans are successful in marketing their positions because they are
tenacious and display emotion and passion when communicating their ideas. In the
context of “Obamacare,” many prominent Republicans attended cable morning shows to
decry the legislation and make egregious claims of forcing senior citizens onto death
panels. Liberal commentator Kyle Kulinski, founder of “Secular Talk,” a YouTube
channel with over 320,000 subscribers, describes the effect this has on the average
American voter:
“The average American voter who doesn’t know anything hears, ‘Obama is gonna
kill your grandma’ over and over, and, you know what they do? They say, ‘It’s
probably not true that Obama wants to kill your grandma, or that Obamacare has
death panels, I don’t buy that. But, I’m pretty sure Obamacare is bad. Why?
Because that guy seems pretty goddamn sure of himself and I don’t see anyone on
the other side combating him and telling him he’s 100 percent wrong. So I’m
going to go with the passion from the guy on the right and say I don’t like
Obamacare.’”
648

After 20 innocent children were shot in Sandy Hook Middle School, national
support for gun control exceeded 90 percent.
649
The Democrats proposed moderate gun
reform, which included criminal and mental health background checks for purchasing,
limits on magazine clips, and a ban on automatic assault weapons. The Republicans
filibustered such legislation, and even bragged about it. Most notably, such audacious
remarks came from 2016 Presidential candidate Ted Cruz, who was a ringleader in such
opposition, when interviewed by Megyn Kelly in 2015:
“What we have accomplished in many of the instances is stopping bad things
from happening. Remember the beginning of the second term of Obama. We had
the horrible shooting in Sandy Hook. And President Obama didn’t come out and
say ‘Let’s target violent criminals,’ which is what he should have done and

648
Kyle Kulinski. "Guns Reform Poll Proves Democrats Suck At Politics." YouTube. August 18, 2015.
Accessed January 24, 2016. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k6-6dwFnsMg.
649
Andrews, Becca. "9 out of 10 Americans Still Support Universal Background Checks." Mother Jones.
October 1, 2015. Accessed January 24, 2016. http://www.motherjones.com/mojo/2015/10/americans-
support-universal-background-checks.

213.
brought together bipartisan agreement. Instead he used it as excuse to go after
law-abiding citizens. Much of Washington was consigned, [saying] ‘We can’t
stop this, the train is moving, get on board.’ I did everything I could to energize
and mobilize the grassroots to stand up and protect the Second Amendment. And
every single proposal of Barack Obama to undermine the Second Amendment
was voted down on the Senate floor.”
650

The Republicans have brought up repealing Obamacare 55 times knowing Obama
would veto it. When the Democrats propose gun reform, with each subsequent attempt
after a mass shooting, it becomes more watered-down as they forebode an inevitable
GOP refusal. Rather than stand for an issue that’s widely supported by Americans, they
kowtow after the first time it gets shut down. Why not propose gun reform as many times
as the Republicans try to repeal Obamacare? In 2013, when Harry Reid announced he
would propose a gun control bill to the Senate, Mitch McConnell and 14 other
Republicans threatened to filibuster the bill, even before the bill was even compiled –
meaning, none of them even knew what provisions lay in the legislation.
651
If the
Democrats weren’t completely inept at politics, they would’ve sent their most high-
profile members to do media rounds, asking the Republicans why they’re the party of
obstructionists, or why they aren’t listening to 90 percent of the American people, or why
to they refuse to act on gun control in the face of 20 innocent children being slaughtered
by a maniac who had far too easy of access to automatic weapons. They could’ve brought
family members of the murdered children to testify to Congress, or appear at press
conferences to call for action, or ask Republican politicians whether they care about
Americans’ safety and popular opinion or NRA campaign contributions. Fighting on this

650
"After the Sandy Hook Kids Were Slaughtered, Ted Cruz Was More Worried about Protecting Guns."
Raw Story. March 25, 2015. Accessed March 15, 2016. http://www.rawstory.com/2015/03/after-these-kids-
were-slaughtered-ted-cruz-was-more-worried-about-protecting-guns/.
651
Jennifer Bendery. "Mitch McConnell To Filibuster Gun Control Bill." The Huffington Post. April 8,
2013. Accessed January 24, 2016. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/04/08/mitch-mcconnell-gun-
bill_n_3040528.html.

214.
issue alone could have been a major sticking point for the party, but they simply blew a
golden opportunity to make the Republicans look bad for failing to respond to the voters
and bring meaningful change to gun control.
The Democrats had another chance to make the Republicans look like hypocrites.
In January 2015, Maryland Representative Chris Van Hollen proposed a plan that would
do the following:
652

• Encourage companies to raise workers’ wages.
• Limit corporate deductions of bonuses paid to executives in excess of $1 million,
unless the companies can show their workers are getting pay raises that reflect
productivity and cost-of-living changes.
• Cut back tax breaks for the top 1 percent of earners in the United States. It also
includes a 0.1 percent tax on stock trades, mostly from high-volume transactions.

At the heart of the bill is middle class tax cuts. Even the tax hikes on the rich in
this bill is tied to their output – if a person, like a doctor or a lawyer, produces the wealth
they earn, they wouldn’t receive a considerable increase in taxes. But if a CEO gets a
raise that isn’t proportionate to their productivity, then they would be taxed for it. Even
the 0.1 high-volume stock transaction tax only affects hedge funds and investment
bankers.
Even though this bill gives tax breaks to the middle class, and even the upper
middle class, and essentially encourages tying wages to productivity (that should be a
quintessential capitalist American concept), the Republicans blocked this bill, despite
being touted as the party of tax cuts and the middle class, and not a peep was heard from
the Democrats. Why not call the Republicans out for being disingenuous? This was a

652
Russell Berman. "The Democrats Call Dibs on the Middle Class: A Proposed $1.2 Trillion Tax-cut
Package Could Shape the Economic Debate in Congress and on the Campaign Trail." The Atlantic. January
12, 2015. Accessed January 24, 2016. http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2015/01/democrats-call-
dibs-on-the-middle-class/384460/.

215.
prime moment for the Democrats to shake their notorious reputation of increasing taxes
on the middle-class, and yet again, they dropped the ball.
The following are other missed opportunities to cast the Republicans in a negative
light and possibly sway voters’ opinions:
• The Republicans hammer Obama on the economy, when his administration has
presided over the creation of 12.6 million private sector jobs and has 64 straight
months of positive job growth, as of July 2015. The Bush Administration lost
463,000 private sector jobs. The deficit has been cut to $680 billion from $1.4
trillion when Bush left office. Unemployment has also been cut in half. Again, the
Democrats should be hammering the Republicans on this issue and question their
legitimacy in handling the economy.
653

• The Democrats also don’t acknowledge the 16-day Republican government
shutdown over budget disputes that cost taxpayers $24 billion.
654

• The Republicans have blocked various attempts at raising the federal minimum
wage and laws mandating paid sick leave.
655

• In 2014, Senate Republicans blocked the Bring Jobs Home Act, which would have
ended tax breaks for companies who outsource jobs.
656

• In 2012, the Republicans blocked a bill that would have given small businesses a
10 percent tax break for making new hires.
657

If, on an issue-by-issue basis, Americans are more favorable of progressive,
populist economic platforms and socially liberal positions, but don’t constantly vote
Democrats to sustain majorities in Congress, it means these voters are either ignorant of
the events unfolding on Capitol Hill or have no faith in the Democratic Party’s ability to
fight for these issues. Either of these concerns sorely needs to be addressed. If the

653
Claire Zillman. "Obama's Economy in Charts: The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly." Fortune. January 12,
2016. Accessed January 24, 2016. http://fortune.com/2016/01/12/obama-economy-charts/.
654
Holly Yan. "Government Shutdown: Get up to Speed in 20 Questions." CNN. October 1, 2013. Accessed
January 24, 2016. http://www.cnn.com/2013/09/30/politics/government-shutdown-up-to-speed/.
655
Jordain Carney. "GOP Blocks Minimum Wage, Sick Leave Proposals." The Hill. August 05, 2015.
Accessed January 24, 2016. http://thehill.com/blogs/floor-action/senate/250382-gop-blocks-minimum-
wage-sick-leave-proposals.
656
Cox, Ramsay. "Senate Republicans Block Bill to End Tax Breaks for Outsourcing." The Hill. July 30,
2014. Accessed January 24, 2016. http://thehill.com/blogs/floor-action/senate/213780-republicans-block-
bill-to-end-tax-breaks-for-outsourcing.
657
Helderman, Rosalind S. "Amid Tax Posturing, Senate GOP Blocks Bill to Encourage Small Business
Hiring." Washington Post. July 12, 2012. Accessed March 15, 2016.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/amid-tax-posturing-senate-gop-blocks-bill-to-encourage-small-
business-hiring/2012/07/12/gJQAto0xfW_story.html.

216.
Republicans refuse to cooperate, display incongruences between their rhetoric and
policies, and don’t govern by the will of the American people, the Democrats need to call
them out on it. Using this to stir anger and appeal to their base’s emotions can be utilized
to drive them out to vote in Midterm and down-ballot elections, by explaining why
putting Democratic Governors, state legislators, Congressmen, and Congresswomen in
office is essential to enacting a progressive agenda.

3. TAKE BACK THE DISCUSSION

A reputation that has dogged the Democrats for decades is the notion that they’re
bad with the economy; capitalism and social programs can’t coexist peacefully; and, at
least held among deeply passionate conservatives, liberal values aren’t American values.
Since the Reagan Revolution, conservatives have dominated the political discussion and
have brilliantly marketed their ideas through simplicity, repetition, and, most importantly,
relating their ideas to the average American. The Democrats have to overcome years of
negative stereotypes, misconceptions, and misinformation in order to generate
enthusiasm for their platforms. The following examples, one hypothetical and one real,
display how the Democrats can take liberal positions and portray them in a way that
relates to conservatives.
John Green, author of The Fault in Our Stars and co-founder of the popular
YouTube channel “VlogBrothers,” released a video titled, “Bigger Pizzas: A Capitalist
Case for Health Care Reform.” In his video, he makes a capitalist, fiscally conservative
case for health care reform. To summarize his argument, he compares a capitalist
economy to the size of a pizza, and its growth depends on the free market being
conducive to innovation (people who create new jobs and technology) and competition

217.
(to drive down the prices of goods). This, in turn, creates jobs, but the American health
care system does a poor job of facilitating this. Most large companies offer health
insurance to their employees, and since individual health insurance plans are often more
expensive, people choose to stay at their jobs at these large companies out of health-
related necessity. The crux of his point is people who could potentially leave these jobs to
pursue their own innovative and entrepreneurial ambitions are forced to stay at these
large companies to ensure they have health insurance, which inevitably hurts the
economy by inhibiting innovation, therefore, hindering growth. Moreover, people who
spend excessive money on private health insurance could allocate that money into
funding their own business or projects that could provide a valuable service or jobs to the
free market. It’s simply a poor distribution of human capital.
“Career decisions should be made by finding the place where your talents meet
the world’s needs, not about finding the place where you can get health insurance.
This ridiculous choice is made by tens of millions of Americans, which has
inhibited innovation, prevented job creation, and it has made the pizza smaller
than it ought to be. For too long we have privileged employees over
entrepreneurs, when we need those entrepreneurs to maximize economic
growth.”
658

Virginia Governor Terry McAuliffe, in his re-election campaign, made a capitalist
argument for LGBT rights. He lambasted Republican-led bills that would discriminate
against LGBT individuals, when he said creating an intolerant atmosphere for women
and homosexuals dissuades businesses, entrepreneurs and families from moving to the
state.
659
This is highlighted by the response to Indiana’s proposed “Religious Freedom

658
John Green and Hank Green. "Bigger Pizzas: A Capitalist Case for Health Care Reform." YouTube.
September 3, 2013. Accessed March 15, 2016. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R7LF5Vj2n64.
659
Laura Vozella, "McAuliffe Invites Indiana Firms to 'open and Welcoming' Virginia." Washington Post.
March 30, 2015. Accessed March 15, 2016. https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-
politics/mcauliffe-invites-indiana-firms-to-open-and-welcoming-virginia/2015/03/30/e5c84a28-d70d-11e4-
8103-fa84725dbf9d_story.html.

218.
Restoration Act,” which guaranteed business owners the right to deny services to LGBT
people on the basis of their religious beliefs. Companies including Marriott, Apple,
Levi’s, Yelp, NCAA, NBA, and NASCAR voiced opposition to the law and emphasized
their commitment to diversity and inclusion.
660

People generally respond to something they can relate to. Trying to rationalize
liberal, progressive concepts with liberal, progressive arguments will resonate within the
base, but it won’t expand the party’s appeal, especially working-class white voters who
highly value their economic prospects. Rather than beat a dead horse on these issues,
brainstorming new ways to pitch these ideas could not only potentially sway new voters,
but also offers a substantive counter-attack to Republican and conservative allegations of
the Democrats being anti-capitalist.
Furthermore, The Guardian’s George Monbiot explains why the neoliberal
economic policies, as advocated by Ronald Reagan and his Republican disciples,
continue to persist, even though they contributed to the financial collapse and the Great
Recession.
“There is something admirable about the neoliberal project, at least in its early
stages. It was a distinctive, innovative philosophy promoted by a coherent
network of thinkers and activists with a clear plan of action. It was patient and
persistent. The Road to Serfdom became the path to power.

Neoliberalism’s triumph also reflects the failure of the left. When laissez-faire
economics led to catastrophe in 1929, John Edward Keynes devised a
comprehensive economic theory to replace it. When Keynesian demand
management hit the buffers in the 70s, there was an alternative ready. But when
neoliberalism fell apart in 2008 there was ... nothing. This is why the zombie
walks. The left and centre have produced no new general framework of economic
thought for 80 years.

660
Kay Steiger, "The Growing Backlash Against Indiana’s New LGBT Discrimination Law."
ThinkProgress. March 27, 2015. Accessed March 15, 2016.
http://thinkprogress.org/lgbt/2015/03/27/3639895/8-entities-may-boycott-indiana-new-lgbt-discrimination-
bill/.

219.

Every invocation of Lord Keynes is an admission of failure. To propose
Keynesian solutions to the crises of the 21st century is to ignore three obvious
problems. It is hard to mobilise people around old ideas; the flaws exposed in the
70s have not gone away; and, most importantly, they have nothing to say about
our gravest predicament: the environmental crisis. Keynesianism works by
stimulating consumer demand to promote economic growth. Consumer demand
and economic growth are the motors of environmental destruction.

What the history of both Keynesianism and neoliberalism show is that it’s not
enough to oppose a broken system. A coherent alternative has to be proposed. For
Labour, the Democrats, and the wider left, the central task should be to develop
an economic Apollo programme, a conscious attempt to design a new system,
tailored to the demands of the 21st century.”
661

The Republicans continue to prevail because the Democrats haven’t offered an
economic plan that can counteract neoliberal, laissez -faire economics. More importantly,
they haven’t painted a picture of how a progressive, 21
st
century economic plan that
emphasizes diversity, environmentalism, modernized education, incorporating
technology to improve standards of living, promoting entrepreneurialship, and equal
opportunity can improve the American economy and the lives of everyone who
participates in the labor force.

4. PURSUE A PROGRESSIVE, PRAGMATIC, CENTER-LEFT PLATFORM THAT
UNITES THE LIBERAL AND CENTRIST FACTIONS OF THE BASE

It took ten seconds into Michelle Nunn’s first TV ad for Georgia voters to
determine they were getting a posturing conservative calling for cutting corporate taxes,
increasing military strikes in Syria, and reforming Obamacare. Nunn displayed a photo of
herself with George H.W. Bush and boasted, “While leading President Bush’s Points of

661

George Monbiot. "Neoliberalism – the Ideology at the Root of All Our Problems." The Guardian. April
15, 2016. Accessed April 15, 2016. http://www.theguardian.com/books/2016/apr/15/neoliberalism-
ideology-problem-george-monbiot.

220.
Light Foundation, we grew it into the world’s largest organization dedicated to volunteer
service.”
662

Democrats in Georgia have been struggling since 2002, as a conservative turnout
turbocharged with anti-gay marriage fervor ousted a Democratic governor for the first
time since 1871 and replaced rural Democratic lawmakers with a supermajority of
Republicans by 2010.
663
Before the latest Midterm election cycle, long-term prospects
looked good for the Democrats – young African-Americans were volunteering for the
party and involving themselves in the political process.
664
About 800,000 nonwhite
nonvoters currently reside in the Peach State— four times the number that Obama would
have needed to carry the state in 2008.
665
If Georgians of color registered and turned out
in equivalent numbers to whites, they’d put the Democrats over the top. Fifty-four
percent of the state’s public-school students are nonwhite, the number of black Georgians
rose 26 percent in the past decade and the Latino population doubled to 9 percent.
666

With these new demographics, why didn’t Georgian Democratic voters elect
Nunn to the U.S. Senate in 2014? That’s because Nunn’s campaign has given Georgia’s
African-Americans and Latinos little, if anything, to get jovial about. “They’re going to
stay home again unless we make sure they understand why there’s something big at stake
in 2014,” says Page Gleason, who runs the state’s new progressive voter-mobilization
group, Pro-Georgia.
667
Ed Kilgore—Democratic strategist, blogger, and former Sam

662
“Campaign 2014: Michelle Nunn 'Familiar’”
663
Bob Moser. “A Bridge In Georgia.” The American Prospect. 2015. Accessed January 20, 2016.
http://prospect.org/article/how-two-centrist-dems-may-herald-progressive-future-georgia.
664
Moser, “A Bridge In Georgia.”
665
Moser, “A Bridge In Georgia.”
666
Moser, “A Bridge In Georgia.”
667
Bob Moser, "Southern Democrats, Meet Your Future: No More Republican Lite." Boston Globe. July
20, 2014. Accessed March 15, 2016. https://www.bostonglobe.com/opinion/2014/07/20/southern-
democrats-meet-your-future-more-republican-lite/0QCGp3SSv7YhNrsnTMVy6L/story.html.

221.
Nunn aide said of Nunn’s campaign, “I’ve told the campaign that the old Blue Dog model
doesn’t work anymore. The people you’re appealing to aren’t going to vote for any
Democrat anymore. You just don’t go to the right on every conceivable issue.”
668

Figure 58: Demographic Changes in Georgia by Race (1990-2010)
669

Nunn’s convoluted message provided a mushy foundation for her campaign. With
five Republicans, including three hardcore Tea Partiers, mixing it up in the GOP Senate
primary, the Democrat’s strategy hinged partly on the chance that she could draw a Todd
Akin-style extremist as an opponent.
670
But the contender who emerged from the GOP
fisticuffs was the most moderate in the field, former Dollar General CEO David
Perdue.
671

672
As Perdue sold himself as an across-the-aisle problem-solver rather than an
ideologue, Nunn’s message essentially sounded like a virtual doppelgänger of her
opponent’s.
Bob Moser, author of “Blue Dixie: Awakening the South’s Democratic Majority,”
describes how the Democrats aren’t adapting to the change in political climate in Georgia
in his American Prospect article, “A Bridge in Georgia.”

668
Moser, “Southern Democrats.”
669
Moser, “Southern Democrats.”
670
Moser, “A Bridge In Georgia.”
671
Moser, “A Bridge In Georgia.”
672
Moser, “Southern Democrats.”

222.
“Some of that trouble stems from the very formula that gave Democrats staying
power in Georgia from the ’70s to the ’00s. Jimmy Carter, elected governor on his
second try in 1970, and Sam Nunn, who shoe-leathered his way to a surprising
U.S. Senate victory two years later, were early practitioners of the fusion politics
that would later be derided as Republican Lite—or, to use Bill Clinton’s preferred
term of art, ‘New Democrat.’ This involved incessant, almost obsessive, courting
of white conservatives and Chamber of Commerce types. Democrats took black
voters’ loyalties largely for granted while campaigning on fiscal discipline,
military hawkishness, and across-the-aisle ‘problem-solving.’ Add generous doses
of culture-war pandering to the white right, and you were ready to keep Georgia,
or Arkansas, or South Carolina, safely Democratic. For a while.

These Democrats left economic populism—always the heart of Southern
liberalism—out of the equation. Nonwhites had ample reason to raise a middle
finger to the whole useless process. The Democrats weren’t courting them, and to
judge by their TV ads, they didn’t seem to care about anybody except white dudes
in suburbia. It’s long past the time when Democrats in states like Georgia can win
by pandering to rural whites while merely grinning and waving to their base.”
673

Conversely, Democratic Representative Ann Kirkpatrick, running in one of the
most politically and volatile districts in conservative Arizona, defied the 2014
Democratic blueprint of retreating from Barack Obama and pretending to be Republican.
She was unapologetic in her support for the Affordable Care Act, asking her opponent
why he opposed Medicaid expansion in Arizona as state House speaker when 21,000
people in their district just signed up for the program.
674

Kirkpatrick also trumpeted the transportation and infrastructure projects she
delivered and would continue to bring to her district. In September and October 2014, she
rolled out three grants that amounted to $20 million for projects and services — tribal
diabetes programs, STEM learning centers, regional airports, wind energy development, a
hybrid bus fleet for the Navajo, and new roads for the Hopi.
675
Kirkpatrick’s message
deviated from the Democratic gameplan, but it was clear and concise: “Government is not

673
Moser, “A Bridge In Georgia.”
674
Bob Moser. "How Democratic Progressives Survived a Landslide." The American Prospect. 2015.
Accessed March 15, 2016. http://prospect.org/article/how-democratic-progressives-survived-landslide.
675
Moser, “How Democratic Progressives.”

223.
the people’s enemy when it works for the people and not big-money interests.”
676
When
November 4, 2014 came and passed, Republicans made astronomic gains in the Senate
and House across the U.S., and even plundered Arizona’s available Congressional seats.
However, Kirkpatrick was one of a handful of progressive Democrats who weathered the
storm, winning by five percentage points, nearly double her margin of victory in 2012,
despite $6 million in outside spending dedicating to ousting her.
677

Rick Nolan, from the conservative-trending Iron Range of Minnesota, won his
election by refusing to moderate himself – he actually slammed Obamacare for being too
corporate-friendly, railed against Citizens United, and fulminated against trickle-down
economics.
678
Senator Jeanne Shaheen, despite Obama’s 38 percent approval rating in the
state, lauded Obamacare and indefatigably focused her campaign on how she could meet
the specific economic needs of her constituents — “working to protect this shipyard,
build that bridge, get a bill passed that helped this New Hampshire business,”
679
rather
than be suckered into nationalizing her race.
Bruce Braley’s unexpected loss to upstart Republican Joni Ernst, like Senator
Mark Udall’s equally surprising defeat in Colorado, was not caused by an overdose of
centrist timidity; Braley and Udall both campaigned on liberal platforms. But as Richard
Kirsch, a senior fellow at the Roosevelt Institute, pointed out after the election, the two
Democrats “ticked off a list of progressive issues—from minimum wage to pay equity to
protecting Social Security—without providing any framing story to link them together.

676
Moser, “How Democratic Progressives.”
677
Moser, “How Democratic Progressives.”
678
Moser, “How Democratic Progressives.”
679
Joshua Miller. "Obama Looms Large." Boston Globe. September 25, 2014. Accessed January 15, 2016.
https://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2014/09/25/obama-looms-
large/MXkEgjM4JbsEvtQexJ0PdJ/story.html.

224.
[They] left out who the villains were in the story.”
680
Although they ran on progressive
policies, they simply didn’t string them together with a cohesive narrative that luridly
portrays how an activist government can improve the lives of their constituencies. Kirsch,
states in his Huffington Post article, “News Flash: Progressives Have a Winning
Economic Narrative -- and Democrats Who Used It Won”:
“What even progressive Democrats need to do better is tell a story about how to
create that economy that works for everyone, not just the wealthy. This is a matter
of both clear narrative and bold policy.
The core of our economic theory is, as we say in the Progressive Economic
Narrative, ‘working people and the middle class are the engines of the economy.’
Another version of this, popularized by the Center for American Progress, is ‘we
build the economy from the middle-out, not trickle-down.’
The story we are telling is that people are the job creators, not businesses. That
raising the minimum wage is not just about fairness, but about creating economy-
boosting jobs that put money in people’s pockets to spend in their communities.
“We all do better when we all do better” is not just a statement of values; it's the
progressive belief about how the economy works.
Our narrative connects to policy with the phrase ‘we build a strong middle class
by decisions we make together.’ Democrats need to step up with bold policies,
many of which are already out there, waiting to be championed.”
681

Populism isn’t a sexy concept without a lurking, ominous enemy — in particular,
a foe who wants to pollute the environment, outsource jobs, curtail wages, allow old
infrastructure to crumble in despair, or prevent millions of children from having
accessible and quality health care and public education.
682
The populist progressives who
won Senate races in purple states in 2014 had the “coherent message” that both
progressive and centrist Democrats lacked. Activist government needs to be the antidote

680
Moser, “How Democratic Progressives.”
681
Richard Kirsch, "News Flash: Progressives Have a Winning Economic Narrative -- and Democrats Who
Used It Won." The Huffington Post. November 11, 2014. Accessed March 15, 2016.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/richard-kirsch/news-flash-progressives-h_b_6139186.html.
682
Kirsch, "News Flash.”

225.
that counters the corrosive effects the Koch Brothers and Wall Street have had on the
American economy and democracy.
683
Merkeey created a contract in his campaign. He
said, “I’m running saying I want to see a ‘We the people’ democracy, by and for the
people and not by and for billionaires. That’s very different from my opponent, who
signed on to a by-and-for-billionaires agenda.”
684

In a year when Democrats nationally lost white, working-class voters by 30
percentage points — the populists either won majorities of these voters (Shaheen,
Merkley, and Franken), or came close (Peters).
685
Exit polls showed Shaheen winning her
state’s dominant white vote 51-48; Franken winning his even more comfortably; and
Merkley running up a 16-point edge among whites.
686

Three of the last five cycles (2006, 2008, and 2012), Democrats have shown they
can decisively win a national, or down-ballot, election, and they have also had a series of
strong candidates with an appealing message who have shown they can win even in big
Republican years. Demographic trends are becoming more favorable year after year. But
the Democrats have to avoid having the kind of blowout Republican years like 2010 and
2014, especially in the non-presidential cycles. They don’t even have to win working-
class white voters, they just have to avoid getting demolished by Republicans with this
cohort.
Democratic strategist Mike Lux, who worked on the Clinton and Obama
campaigns, argues a progressive strategy is the best way of doing so:
“Instead of our candidates running for the hills and distancing themselves from
anything remotely favored by the Democratic Party, we need to energize and

683
Kirsch, "News Flash.”
684
Moser, “How Democratic Progressives.”
685
Moser, “How Democratic Progressives.”
686
Moser, “How Democratic Progressives.”

226.
mobilize our voters. Republicans were pumped up to come out and vote in 2010
and 2014, but Democrats saw no reason to come out because their standard
bearers were not speaking to them. The most fundamental problem by far in those
years was a lack of Democratic turnout.

Progressive messaging that motivates base voters who are people of color to vote
also appeals to the kinds of white voters who are open to voting for Democrats:
working class unmarried women, younger people, union members, the LGBT
community, people with disabilities, less religiously observant people, and non-
Christians. A strong populist progressive message not only appeals to, but
actually motivates all of those kinds of voters as well as people of color. And
these more progressive minded whites, in combination with people of color, do
make up a clear majority of eligible voters in this country.

Even when you just look at the category of swing voters, I would argue that there
are two kinds of swing voters Democrats should be paying attention to: those
leaning our way, but not motivated about voting, and those more likely to vote but
uncertain as to who they will vote for (the more conventional definition of swing
voter). The former category of swing voters has a lot more people in it than the
latter, and they are easier to close the deal with and get out to vote than
persuading the other kind of swing voter. Additionally, there are a fair number of
swing voters embedded in demographics that are traditionally thought of as
Democratic base voters, and they too are easier to get than the classic white
centrist voters: since most of the friends of your average Hispanic or unmarried
woman or (pick another Democratic base group) are Democrats, it is easier to
persuade them to vote for Democrats. Thus campaign dollars spent in these
demographic sectors is far more effective.

Finally, the way you move enough white voters to the Democratic banner to win
elections is exactly the way you motivate, engage, and turn out to vote base
Democratic voters: a strong, clear progressive populist message. That kind of
message is the message that helps both turn out and win over white working class
unmarried women; it is the same message that appeals to and motivates white
young people to vote; it works with the large majority of Jewish voters, LGBT
voters, religiously unaffiliated voters; and it is most certainly the kind of message
that appeals to white union members. Unlike the old conventional wisdom model
of voting patterns which haven’t been updated since the 1990s, the key to
Democrats winning elections is not to distance themselves from the base with
Sister Souljah moments and welfare reform-style messaging, and it most certainly
isn't to appease the beltway centrists by standing up those pesky voters (about 80
percent of total voters) who love Social Security and Medicare. The winning
strategy in 2016 and beyond is to motivate and appeal to both people of color and
whites responsive to a progressive message.”
687

687
Mike Lux, "What Are Democrats to Do?" The Huffington Post. December 21, 2015. Accessed January
24, 2016. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/mike-lux/what-are-democrats-to-do_b_8852276.html.

227.
Stanley Greenberg, author of “America Ascendant,” and former campaign advisor
and senior pollster for Bill Clinton and Al Gore, argues that the ‘90s tactics of
Democratic centrism are become increasingly outdated with the rise of Millennial,
Latino, African-American, Asian, women and atheist cohorts:
“Those who advocate such ‘centrism’ could not be more wrong. The key to both
winning today’s white working-class voters and building overwhelming
majorities with the ‘Rising American Electorate’ is a robust agenda of progressive
reform and government activism.

The old formula, to be honest, has been made irrelevant by the seismic economic
and cultural shifts that are transforming American politics. On the one hand,
Republicans have successfully nationalized every presidential and off-year
election because they are waging an ever-more-intense and polarized counter-
revolution against the country’s national trends. On the other, Democrats are the
beneficiaries of these inexorable trends, but Democrats have not addressed the
profound wage stagnation and the special-interest corruption of government that
leave the middle class out in the cold. That leaves Democrats’ potential majority
without a reason to stay consistently engaged—and leaves Democrats short on
white working-class votes as well. The key for the Democrats now is a bold
reform agenda relevant for these new times.

A large majority of the country embraces a bold reform narrative that demands
leaders confront the special interests’ hold on government and puts the problems
of the middle class center-stage. People get excited by leaders who understand
their lives. The new American majority is hungry for leaders who know how hard
it is for people to piece together multiple jobs to make ends meet—and so is
calling for drastic improvements in wages and employment rights. Voters want
leaders who appreciate the horrific cost of college and will make college more
affordable, and they want leaders who understand how bewildering and difficult it
is to balance work and have a family and will therefore offer adequate social
supports.

They are ready to see deep investments to rebuild American infrastructure and
modernize the country—if it is serious in scale, long-term, and independent of a
Congress dominated by special interests and self-seeking politicians. And they
understand that this is one way that government can produce good-paying jobs.
And the American people are ready to tax the richest and disrupt that group’s
special deal with government. They bring to this period a special disdain for
overpaid CEOs and the crony capitalism that makes government work for big
business and special interests. The rich paying their fair share is nearly a first
principle in economic reform and getting to a good society. They are ready for
government to help—if the stables can be cleaned. The government today is

228.
bought and sold to the biggest donors, and it wastes hundreds of billions of dollars
at the behest of special-interest lobbyists. They are excited when leaders begin
with reforms that restore democracy and get government to work for the middle
class again.

So, what is the biggest obstacle to Democrats truly winning a national election
and pursuing a progressive agenda? It is failure of Democrats to seize the moment
and define an appeal that champions the interests of both the Rising American
Electorate and the working middle class. Creating and communicating a reform
agenda needs to be the Democrats’ top priority.”
688

Democratic message advisors James Carville and Stan Greenberg, along with
Page Gardner, stated in their Democracy Corps autopsy of the 2014 Midterms: “People
believe that the rich are using their influence to rig the system so the economy works for
them but not the middle class.”
689

On several occasions, reputable Republican pollster Frank Luntz has noted that
American voters are seeking a government that works on their behalf:
In a New York Times op-ed, “The Midterms Were Not a Republican Revolution,”
he wrote, “[F]rom the reddest rural towns to the bluest big cities, the sentiment is the
same. People say Washington is broken and on the decline, that government no longer
works for them -- only for the rich and powerful.”
690

Speaking in the panel, “American Politics: The 114th Congress and 2016
Presidential Election,” during the 2015 Milken Institute Global Conference, Luntz said:
“I would suggest that [Democrats] would do very well if you focused on this.

688
Stanley B. Greenberg, "How Progressive Policies Can Lead to a Democratic Majority." The American
Prospect. 2015. Accessed January 21, 2016. http://prospect.org/article/how-progressive-policies-can-lead-
democratic-majority.
689
James Carville, Stan Greenberg, and Page Gardner. "Tuesday and What It Tells Us About 2016."
Democracy Corps, (2014), 3.
690
Frank Luntz. "The Midterms Were Not a Republican Revolution." The New York Times. November 05,
2014. Accessed March 15, 2016. http://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/06/opinion/the-midterms-were-not-a-
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229.
The number one thing you ask people if you ask them, ‘Do we need to address
inequality in America or to make Washington, and this is the specific language,
more efficient, more effective, and more accountable.

By 3-to-2 they will not say income inequality, they will say the damage
Washington has done to the country and to themselves… The candidate who can
show they can make Washington more efficient, more effective and accountable,
is the candidate that wins in 2016.”
691

Figure 59: List of Reasons People Vote for One Candidate Over Another for U.S.
Senate/Congress (Democracy Corps November 2014)
692

As mentioned in the SWOT analysis, the centrists still present an important
faction to the Democratic Party, and many Americans are moderate. Just because a
message is progressive, doesn’t mean it has to be left-wing bonkers. It should essentially
be a middle ground between 2016 frontrunners Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders,
liberal enough to offer a stark contrast to the Republicans, but not so far left that it
alienates many American voters. Both candidates present very good and practical ideas
that can be cherry-picked to formulate a 21
st
century Democratic platform. But the
Democrats, and its candidates, need to communicate the narrative of an activist

691
"Global Conference 2015 Panel: American Politics: The 114th Congress and 2016 Presidential
Election."
692
"Tuesday and What It Tells Us About 2016."

230.
government working for middle-class Americans, fostering diversity, and showing a
genuine care for the struggles and needs for Americans just getting by in the aftermath of
the Great Recession.
A progressive center-left platform may include:
• Mandate the federal minimum wage to be the minimum cost of living in each
state and municipality, and adjust to yearly inflation.
• Breaking up “too big to fail” banks and better regulating Wall Street.
• Overhaul and simplify an absurdly complex tax code riddled with loopholes.
• Demonstrate a willingness to lead on tackling regulatory accumulation (the piling
of new rules upon old ones, decade after decade, with no effort to eliminate or
modify those that are obsolete, duplicative or overly prescriptive) in order to cut
red tape on small businesses and start-ups and encourage innovation and
entrepreneurship.
• Adopt energy policies that balance economic growth and environmental health.
This can include expanding America’s shale-gas development while making
public investments in clean energy sources and job training and reintegration for
those working in the fossil fuel industry who would be otherwise be displaced
with the development of alternative energy.
• Give tax breaks to companies who hire American workers and energy companies
who invest in renewable energy development and work to cut greenhouse
emissions.
• Provide modern transportation and infrastructure to account for increasing
population and urbanization.
• Workplace reform: Paid sick and maternity leave and eliminating the gender pay
gap.
• Campaign finance reform/public financing of elections.
• Decentralize power in terms of public education and (possibly single-payer or all-
payer rate) health care and let the states devise their own systems that better
reflect their individual needs, while maintaining federal mandates to limit
disparities in quality between each state.
• Reform and modernize, but also preserve, entitlement programs to increase
efficiency of delivery.
• Criminal justice reform with a commitment to ending mass incarceration,
pardoning non-violent drug offenders and the demilitarization of police.
• Comprehensive immigration reform that includes increased border security and
amnesty for immigrants already in the U.S.
• A foreign policy committed to modernizing and bolstering cybersecurity and
defeating ISIS and stabilizing the Middle East in a responsible and humane
manner.
• Facilitating free (but fair) trade agreement with other nations that don’t
hemorrhage American jobs: This can be done with increased efforts in job
replacement and job training.

231.
• A social platform including: protecting voting rights; improving VA conditions;
ending LGBT workplace discrimination; remaining pro-choice; sensible (and
moderate) gun control based on overhauling background checks, closing sales
loopholes, and improving mental health; curtailing NSA surveillance on
Americans; and advocating for federal decriminalization or legalization of
marijuana.
These platforms can be communicated through three main umbrella issues:
1. Reform and modernize the federal government to work with the private sector and
state governments in promoting economic growth, help small businesses and spur
21
st
century innovation.
2. Ensure all Americans have an equal opportunity to achieve economic success by
providing them the basic necessities to succeed through a strong, efficient and
accountable social safety net.
3. Champion America’s burgeoning diversity by protecting individual civil rights,
standing up against discrimination and ending systemic oppression.

These platforms would combine progressivism with pragmatism while mobilizing
the different segments of their coalition. If the Democrats want to unify their coalition
and offer a stark contrast to their Republican counterparts, this should be their next
course of action. By adopting a progressive center-left platform and communicating it
effectively, they create a narrative of making government modern and efficient,
cooperative with the private sector and standing up for middle-class Americans. This, in
turn, will create mental associations for voters: “reform,” “efficient,” “sensible policy,”
“pragmatic,” “progress,” “21
st
century,” “diversity,” “middle-class,” “equal opportunity,”
etc. But most importantly, it would rebrand the Democrats as a realist party that wants to
use government as a tool to bolster economic growth, not hinder it.

232.
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