about 2 million emigrant workers living
outside Portugal, and they are leaving at
a rate of about 170,000 a year. These
workers generally have above average
skills and education, which are greatly
needed within Portugal. The wage reforms instituted in the first few years
under Caetano, were in large part directed
at encouraging this group to remain or
return to Portugal.
The economic situation is full of contradictions, and is unresolvable within the
context of the fascist, corporate state.
All the weaknesses are so intertwined that
to alleviate one, merely exacerbates another. On the one hand the economy is
stagnant and to get it moving an increase in the labour force is necessary.
But, there is an intense labour shortage
due to the massive emigrations to Europe
and the colonies over the past decade.
In turn, the stagnating economy and the
labour shortage obviously hurt the Portuguese war efforts in the colonies. However, on the other hand, emigration is
also beneficial to Portugal. Settlers are
needed in the colonies to aid in maintaining Portuguese control, and Portuguese
workers outside the country sending money back have given Portugal its largest
source of foreign exchange. So, despite
the fact that criminal charges against
those illegally emigrating have been loosened, if too many returned it would cut
into the valuable foreign exchange that
they feed into the lagging economy.
Caetano hopes to avoid the issues raised
by these conflicts by importing cheap
labour from the colonies. It has been
estimated that 15,000 Africans have arrived in Lisbon in the last few months,
two-thirds of them from the Cape Verde
Islands. But he is locked in. Again,
Caetano can try to make petty reforms in
the economy, but given the political and
economic structures, and the continuation
of the colonial wars, these small changes
can  barely even  stabilise  the situation.
Foreign policy
Changes in Foreign Policy have been a
response to the growing need to increase
support for the colonial wars and to draw
more foreign capital into Portugal and the
colonies.   The new Foreign Minister, Rui
Patricio, made it clear at his first press
conference in July, 1970, that an important aspect of foreign policy making
would be the development of a positive
national image.
A solid relationship with NATO allies is
considered critical by the government as
seen in the great importance Portugal
gave to the NATO ministerial meeting in
July, 1971 in Lisbon. But Caetano's
strategy within NATO has changed in
order to alleviate charges of the misuse of
NATO supplied weapons in the war, and
to temper the criticisms of some of the
NATO allies who oppose the wars. Caetano now lays great emphasis on the fact
that Portugal is fighting the colonial wars
in Africa without outside assistance, but
fails to mention the continuing use of
NATO equipment in Africa, a clear violation to NATO regulations. In relation
lo extending the areas NATO serves to
include the South Atlantic, Portugal has
carefully refrained from taking any pub
lic initiatives. But at the same time,
Caetano pushes the strategic location of
the colonies for NATO security.
The large scale foreign investment in the
colonies that is now being encouraged,
will also serve to push these countries to
support the Portuguese war effort to protect their growing economic stake. But
in order to make the idea of colonialism
more palatable to these North American,
Western European and Japanese interests,
the Portuguese have made very minimal
increases in the African wage scale, and
slightly expanded the number of schools
and hospitals. These token pacification
measures, mostly only on paper, are sold
under the rubric of ((economic and social
development)) to increase outside support
for the war.
All these programmes and petty changes
discussed so far have been aimed at neutralising opposition, pacifying discontent
and expanding the power base of Marcelo
Caetano. But they are complemented and
enhanced by on-going efforts, to «split»
established opposition groups and render
them less effective. Forces which do not
respond to the more co-optative method
of repression then are confronted with
crude   force   and  secret   police   tactics.
In his first few years Caetano was more
successful in his pacification techniques
than he has been recently. Increased opposition from the left and heightened
pressures by the right have reduced Caetano to the Salazarist tactic of blaming
subversive elements for most of Portugal's
problems. Then his use of secret police
and heavy repression becomes justified.
Pacification through propaganda
Caetano has pushed himself as a man who
communicates easily with the people in
hopes of undermining opposition and
consolidating a power base, by creating
the impression of ((consulting with the
people». He has instituted regular informal T.V. appearances where in simple
terms he presses home thc same points:
the need for social improvements; thc
importance of defending thc colonies,
and the threat to Portugal's stability from
inside and out. He has also travelled extensively within Portugal and to thc three
African colonics reinforcing this image.
22