-. 6 -
Mozambique.  Our chances for victory are becoming more certain.
The knowledge of this state of affairs leads, in a direct line,
objectively to this conclusion: the position of Portugal in Mozambique is
irretrievably compromised.  A revolution is like a violent wind which constantly grows in intensity and amplitude.  Five hundred soldiers have been
killed so far.  uur successes encourage our fighters.  In contrast, the
morale of the Portuguese troops is decreasing.  Our victories will follow
one another as time goes on; the final victory is inevitable.
Is Portugal aware of this situation?  The heavy losses which she
has suffered, in men and materials, and the prospect of future defeats in
Guinea, Mozambique and Angola - will they force Portugal to reconsider her
position in respect of her colonial problem?
The most positive fact known to us in connection with this point
is illustrated in the newspaper "Gazette de Lausanne" of December 15, 196*+.
A reporter, Laslo Nagy, sent by this newspaper to Portugal had interviews
with members of the Portuguese Government, among whom were two Ministers0
Laslo Nagy relates that in the course of conversations he was told that
Salazar does not ignore that the colonial war threatened the very existence
of metropolitan Portugal, whose economic and social structures are extremely
fragile.  But in spite of all this, the Portuguese political position remains unchanged.  The reporter of the "Gazette de Lausanne" called the attention of his listeners to the fact that this intransigence might lead the
Portuguese nation to suicide.  The answer which he was given also relates
to the question which we have posed above.  The answer was:  "All right,
sir: let it be a suicidei"
The political position of Portugal might seem irrational, but it
is understandable.  In examining the problem in all its implications, the
position of Portugal is, in large measure, logical and coherent.  In fact,
throughout the centuries Portugal depended on her colonial wealth for her
existence.  Today, more than ever, the colonies are of vital importance to
her.  To lose them without altering the political, economic and social
structure^ of Portugal will surely be catastrophic for the Portuguese
nation.  Here is the proof:
From 19^+5 to 1962_the deficit in the balance of payments of
Portugal was 79 million cantos (£96^+ million).  From 1951 to 1962 the average annual deficit in the balance of payments with foreign countries rose
to 500 thousand cantos (£6,100,000).  What cavers the deficit are the imports brought from the colonies.  The balance in favor of Portugal in her
commerce with the colonies was 2 million contos (£2*+.^ million).  Since the
colonies have a favorable balance of payments with foreign countries, about
1 million contos (£12.2 million) are annually transferred to Portugal*