The utilization of weapon system cost learning curves. - Page 48 |
Save page Remove page | Previous | 48 of 68 | Next |
|
small (250x250 max)
medium (500x500 max)
Large (1000x1000 max)
Extra Large
large ( > 500x500)
Full Resolution
All (PDF)
|
This page
All
|
41
Fixing effectiveness levels. If the planner should
fix a given level of effectiveness desired, select a newer
weapon system with more effectiveness than the current
system and compare the two, he then knows he can get along
with a force containing less of the newer weapon system
for this given level of effectiveness. Knowing, from his
other cost data and from the learning curve of the current
system, almost exactly what he has invested at this point
in the current system, he can compare this cost to the
estimated costs of the newer weapon system. If we assumed
the increased effectiveness of the newer system to be
exactly measurable, then the learning curves of the two
systems would be sufficient for him to make an exact
decision for the selected level of effectiveness as to
where on the learning curve of the current system to cancel
the current contract.
The analyst will notice, however, that this type of
reasoning is supported by the assumptions made, and the
reliability limits of the learning curves further compound
the possibility of major error. The point to be made in
this case, therefore, is that this sort of use is a matter
of qualified judgment. The learning curve does not of
itself indicate any reasonable and statistically sound
set of answers to the basic problem of where to cancel the
contract in view of the assumptions necessary in this
Object Description
Description
| Title | The utilization of weapon system cost learning curves. - Page 48 |
| Repository email | cisadmin@lib.usc.edu |
| Full text | 41 Fixing effectiveness levels. If the planner should fix a given level of effectiveness desired, select a newer weapon system with more effectiveness than the current system and compare the two, he then knows he can get along with a force containing less of the newer weapon system for this given level of effectiveness. Knowing, from his other cost data and from the learning curve of the current system, almost exactly what he has invested at this point in the current system, he can compare this cost to the estimated costs of the newer weapon system. If we assumed the increased effectiveness of the newer system to be exactly measurable, then the learning curves of the two systems would be sufficient for him to make an exact decision for the selected level of effectiveness as to where on the learning curve of the current system to cancel the current contract. The analyst will notice, however, that this type of reasoning is supported by the assumptions made, and the reliability limits of the learning curves further compound the possibility of major error. The point to be made in this case, therefore, is that this sort of use is a matter of qualified judgment. The learning curve does not of itself indicate any reasonable and statistically sound set of answers to the basic problem of where to cancel the contract in view of the assumptions necessary in this |
