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204
explains why the WTO is not able to resolve the conflicts through multilateral
negotiations. The argument presented here states that the innovation will not occur
through multilateral negotiations because divergent preferences motivated by self-interest
make collective action difficult, if not impossible. Rather the competitive
market place will generate an innovation tested and validated by RTAs. Innovation
emerges from successful schemes producing relative gains that stimulate adoption by
states perceiving a relative loss. Consider that import substitution strategies were
embraced as the answer to various economic concerns; however, over time, the
evidence mounted and this approach to economic development was abandoned in
favor of an export-led growth model that demonstrated success most notably in East
Asia. To be sure, this model will require revision to meet the needs of its adopters
but the point remains that innovation solutions are adopted as policymakers learn of
the achievements associated with alternative approaches. It is important to note that
the innovations are not competing rather policymakers are learning, adopting, and
innovating.
This dissertation examines the proliferation of RTAs and the implications for
the WTO. How useful is the supply and demand model supplemented by diffusion
theory as a useful analytical framework to explain other inter-state agreements?
Diffusion theory has already been applied to explain the popularity and evolving
content of bilateral investment treaties (Elkins, Guzman, and Simmons 2006 ).
Elkins et al. argue that competition rather than learning is the source of diffusion as
states make concessions to attract foreign investment capital. The competition for
Object Description
| Title | Riding the wave: an interdisciplinary approach to understanding the popularity of RTA notifications to the GATT/WTO |
| Author | McClough, David Andrew |
| Author email | mcclough@usc.edu; dmcclou@bgsu.edu |
| Degree | Doctor of Philosophy |
| Document type | Dissertation |
| Degree program | Political Economy & Public Policy |
| School | College of Letters, Arts and Sciences |
| Date defended/completed | 2008-08-07 |
| Date submitted | 2008 |
| Restricted until | Unrestricted |
| Date published | 2008-10-18 |
| Advisor (committee chair) | Katada, Saori N. |
| Advisor (committee member) |
Nugent, Jeffrey B. Cartier, Carolyn |
| Abstract | The proliferation of Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs) notified to the GATT/WTO since the early 1980s deviates from the long-term trend and reflects participation of nearly every member of the United Nations. This dissertation seeks to explain the current wave of RTA notifications by supplementing the economic model of supply and demand with diffusion theory. Application of the supply and demand model is useful in distinguishing between changes in demand and changes insupply of RTAs. This distinction is seldom emphasized in the current literature examining RTAs. Recent applications of diffusion theory in the discipline of international relations offer a unique opportunity to include a dynamic force in the static analysis of the supply and demand model. Empirical analysis assesses the fit of the RTA diffusion pattern by comparing the RTA diffusion pattern to a cumulative standard normal distribution. The analysis indicates that the diffusion pattern of RTAs resembles the diffusion of an innovation through a social system.; The implication of this finding is that the adoption of an RTA as trade policy is not made independently of the decision by other states. Indeed, the analysis suggests interdependency between states. Further empirical analysis explores economic and political variables that may explain the decision to adopt the RTA as trade policy. The empirical analysis is unique in that survival analysis is utilized to assess the variation in duration to adopt an initial RTA since the early 1980s. A central discovery is that regional designation explains the variation in duration to adopt an initial RTA. Multiple regression analysis confirms the results generated using survival analysis and support the assertion that the proliferation of RTAs likely reflects changes in both the demand for RTAs and the supply of RTAs. This dissertation concludes by considering implications for the WTO resulting from the increase in RTA notifications. |
| Keyword | trade agreements |
| Coverage date | after 1980 |
| Language | English |
| Part of collection | University of Southern California dissertations and theses |
| Publisher (of the original version) | University of Southern California |
| Place of publication (of the original version) | Los Angeles, California |
| Publisher (of the digital version) | University of Southern California. Libraries |
| Provenance | Electronically uploaded by the author |
| Type | texts |
| Legacy record ID | usctheses-m1675 |
| Contributing entity | University of Southern California |
| Rights | McClough, David Andrew |
| Repository name | Libraries, University of Southern California |
| Repository address | Los Angeles, California |
| Repository email | cisadmin@lib.usc.edu |
| Filename | etd-McClough-2338 |
| Archival file | uscthesesreloadpub_Volume32/etd-McClough-2338.pdf |
Description
| Title | Page 213 |
| Contributing entity | University of Southern California |
| Repository email | cisadmin@lib.usc.edu |
| Full text | 204 explains why the WTO is not able to resolve the conflicts through multilateral negotiations. The argument presented here states that the innovation will not occur through multilateral negotiations because divergent preferences motivated by self-interest make collective action difficult, if not impossible. Rather the competitive market place will generate an innovation tested and validated by RTAs. Innovation emerges from successful schemes producing relative gains that stimulate adoption by states perceiving a relative loss. Consider that import substitution strategies were embraced as the answer to various economic concerns; however, over time, the evidence mounted and this approach to economic development was abandoned in favor of an export-led growth model that demonstrated success most notably in East Asia. To be sure, this model will require revision to meet the needs of its adopters but the point remains that innovation solutions are adopted as policymakers learn of the achievements associated with alternative approaches. It is important to note that the innovations are not competing rather policymakers are learning, adopting, and innovating. This dissertation examines the proliferation of RTAs and the implications for the WTO. How useful is the supply and demand model supplemented by diffusion theory as a useful analytical framework to explain other inter-state agreements? Diffusion theory has already been applied to explain the popularity and evolving content of bilateral investment treaties (Elkins, Guzman, and Simmons 2006 ). Elkins et al. argue that competition rather than learning is the source of diffusion as states make concessions to attract foreign investment capital. The competition for |
