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203
the minivan analogy, the success of the minivan inspired adoption and subsequent
innovation by competitors and preceded the demise of the family sedan and station
wagon as scarce resources were reallocated from the cars to the minivans. Indeed, it
is likely that Chrysler Corporation no longer serves as a leader in this product
category. Indeed, the first mover advantage often acknowledged by game theorists
and market strategists may not exist in the RTA market. For example, consider that
the EC/EU has not inspired formation of customs unions. In fact, the most popular
form of RTA is actually the FTA notified under Article XXIV. Nonetheless, each
and every RTA creates new information easily observed and incorporated into future
policy decisions by all states.
States facing a resource constraint engage in RTAs offering the greatest
expected benefit. The process results in preference convergence reflecting spheres
of influence within the WTO. The diminishing returns to RTAs combined with the
opportunity for increasing returns associated with multilateral negotiations represent
a more positive outlook for the WTO than either the popular press or skeptics of
regionalism present.
Richard E. Baldwin (2006) offers a competing perspective arguing that the
complexity of competing regional agreements will motivate the marketplace to
demand standardization. He describes the multilateralizing of regionalism. Baldwin
is mistaken to suggest that standardization will emerge from demand only. The
demand must be matched by supply and any standard with a chance of success must
emerge from a competitive process that vets the imposters. This fundamental truth
Object Description
| Title | Riding the wave: an interdisciplinary approach to understanding the popularity of RTA notifications to the GATT/WTO |
| Author | McClough, David Andrew |
| Author email | mcclough@usc.edu; dmcclou@bgsu.edu |
| Degree | Doctor of Philosophy |
| Document type | Dissertation |
| Degree program | Political Economy & Public Policy |
| School | College of Letters, Arts and Sciences |
| Date defended/completed | 2008-08-07 |
| Date submitted | 2008 |
| Restricted until | Unrestricted |
| Date published | 2008-10-18 |
| Advisor (committee chair) | Katada, Saori N. |
| Advisor (committee member) |
Nugent, Jeffrey B. Cartier, Carolyn |
| Abstract | The proliferation of Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs) notified to the GATT/WTO since the early 1980s deviates from the long-term trend and reflects participation of nearly every member of the United Nations. This dissertation seeks to explain the current wave of RTA notifications by supplementing the economic model of supply and demand with diffusion theory. Application of the supply and demand model is useful in distinguishing between changes in demand and changes insupply of RTAs. This distinction is seldom emphasized in the current literature examining RTAs. Recent applications of diffusion theory in the discipline of international relations offer a unique opportunity to include a dynamic force in the static analysis of the supply and demand model. Empirical analysis assesses the fit of the RTA diffusion pattern by comparing the RTA diffusion pattern to a cumulative standard normal distribution. The analysis indicates that the diffusion pattern of RTAs resembles the diffusion of an innovation through a social system.; The implication of this finding is that the adoption of an RTA as trade policy is not made independently of the decision by other states. Indeed, the analysis suggests interdependency between states. Further empirical analysis explores economic and political variables that may explain the decision to adopt the RTA as trade policy. The empirical analysis is unique in that survival analysis is utilized to assess the variation in duration to adopt an initial RTA since the early 1980s. A central discovery is that regional designation explains the variation in duration to adopt an initial RTA. Multiple regression analysis confirms the results generated using survival analysis and support the assertion that the proliferation of RTAs likely reflects changes in both the demand for RTAs and the supply of RTAs. This dissertation concludes by considering implications for the WTO resulting from the increase in RTA notifications. |
| Keyword | trade agreements |
| Coverage date | after 1980 |
| Language | English |
| Part of collection | University of Southern California dissertations and theses |
| Publisher (of the original version) | University of Southern California |
| Place of publication (of the original version) | Los Angeles, California |
| Publisher (of the digital version) | University of Southern California. Libraries |
| Provenance | Electronically uploaded by the author |
| Type | texts |
| Legacy record ID | usctheses-m1675 |
| Contributing entity | University of Southern California |
| Rights | McClough, David Andrew |
| Repository name | Libraries, University of Southern California |
| Repository address | Los Angeles, California |
| Repository email | cisadmin@lib.usc.edu |
| Filename | etd-McClough-2338 |
| Archival file | uscthesesreloadpub_Volume32/etd-McClough-2338.pdf |
Description
| Title | Page 212 |
| Contributing entity | University of Southern California |
| Repository email | cisadmin@lib.usc.edu |
| Full text | 203 the minivan analogy, the success of the minivan inspired adoption and subsequent innovation by competitors and preceded the demise of the family sedan and station wagon as scarce resources were reallocated from the cars to the minivans. Indeed, it is likely that Chrysler Corporation no longer serves as a leader in this product category. Indeed, the first mover advantage often acknowledged by game theorists and market strategists may not exist in the RTA market. For example, consider that the EC/EU has not inspired formation of customs unions. In fact, the most popular form of RTA is actually the FTA notified under Article XXIV. Nonetheless, each and every RTA creates new information easily observed and incorporated into future policy decisions by all states. States facing a resource constraint engage in RTAs offering the greatest expected benefit. The process results in preference convergence reflecting spheres of influence within the WTO. The diminishing returns to RTAs combined with the opportunity for increasing returns associated with multilateral negotiations represent a more positive outlook for the WTO than either the popular press or skeptics of regionalism present. Richard E. Baldwin (2006) offers a competing perspective arguing that the complexity of competing regional agreements will motivate the marketplace to demand standardization. He describes the multilateralizing of regionalism. Baldwin is mistaken to suggest that standardization will emerge from demand only. The demand must be matched by supply and any standard with a chance of success must emerge from a competitive process that vets the imposters. This fundamental truth |
