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196
The empirical results suggest that purely economic considerations alone do
not explain the demand for RTAs. Variables included in the empirical analysis test
the impact of the collapse of the Soviet Union, a political event, albeit stimulated by
failed economic policy. The results from separate specifications confirm that the
collapse of the Soviet Union shortens the duration between state independence and
an initial RTA. In these instances the motivation is likely political as well as
economic. However, the political motivation is closely linked with the commitment
to market based capitalism as newly independent states seek to achieve higher
standards of living previous unattainable under the influence or control of the Soviet
Union.
These findings support the conclusion from analysis of the diffusion pattern
that the decision to adopt an RTA in not independent of other states. The region
effect implies a spatial interdependency likely consistent with the natural trading
partner hypothesis whereas the wealth effect is a relational concept by definition.
Finally, the collapse of the Soviet Union affected numerous states, each of whom
sought to establish previous trade relations as well as new trade relations. To the
extent to which newly independent states and former Comecon members adopted the
RTA trade policy it is likely that the decision reflected the choice by previous trade
partners and potential trade partners to do so.
Recent contributions to the literature take seriously the application of
diffusion theory to international political economy phenomena. The literature
recognizes four distinct sources fueling the diffusion process. This dissertation
Object Description
| Title | Riding the wave: an interdisciplinary approach to understanding the popularity of RTA notifications to the GATT/WTO |
| Author | McClough, David Andrew |
| Author email | mcclough@usc.edu; dmcclou@bgsu.edu |
| Degree | Doctor of Philosophy |
| Document type | Dissertation |
| Degree program | Political Economy & Public Policy |
| School | College of Letters, Arts and Sciences |
| Date defended/completed | 2008-08-07 |
| Date submitted | 2008 |
| Restricted until | Unrestricted |
| Date published | 2008-10-18 |
| Advisor (committee chair) | Katada, Saori N. |
| Advisor (committee member) |
Nugent, Jeffrey B. Cartier, Carolyn |
| Abstract | The proliferation of Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs) notified to the GATT/WTO since the early 1980s deviates from the long-term trend and reflects participation of nearly every member of the United Nations. This dissertation seeks to explain the current wave of RTA notifications by supplementing the economic model of supply and demand with diffusion theory. Application of the supply and demand model is useful in distinguishing between changes in demand and changes insupply of RTAs. This distinction is seldom emphasized in the current literature examining RTAs. Recent applications of diffusion theory in the discipline of international relations offer a unique opportunity to include a dynamic force in the static analysis of the supply and demand model. Empirical analysis assesses the fit of the RTA diffusion pattern by comparing the RTA diffusion pattern to a cumulative standard normal distribution. The analysis indicates that the diffusion pattern of RTAs resembles the diffusion of an innovation through a social system.; The implication of this finding is that the adoption of an RTA as trade policy is not made independently of the decision by other states. Indeed, the analysis suggests interdependency between states. Further empirical analysis explores economic and political variables that may explain the decision to adopt the RTA as trade policy. The empirical analysis is unique in that survival analysis is utilized to assess the variation in duration to adopt an initial RTA since the early 1980s. A central discovery is that regional designation explains the variation in duration to adopt an initial RTA. Multiple regression analysis confirms the results generated using survival analysis and support the assertion that the proliferation of RTAs likely reflects changes in both the demand for RTAs and the supply of RTAs. This dissertation concludes by considering implications for the WTO resulting from the increase in RTA notifications. |
| Keyword | trade agreements |
| Coverage date | after 1980 |
| Language | English |
| Part of collection | University of Southern California dissertations and theses |
| Publisher (of the original version) | University of Southern California |
| Place of publication (of the original version) | Los Angeles, California |
| Publisher (of the digital version) | University of Southern California. Libraries |
| Provenance | Electronically uploaded by the author |
| Type | texts |
| Legacy record ID | usctheses-m1675 |
| Contributing entity | University of Southern California |
| Rights | McClough, David Andrew |
| Repository name | Libraries, University of Southern California |
| Repository address | Los Angeles, California |
| Repository email | cisadmin@lib.usc.edu |
| Filename | etd-McClough-2338 |
| Archival file | uscthesesreloadpub_Volume32/etd-McClough-2338.pdf |
Description
| Title | Page 205 |
| Contributing entity | University of Southern California |
| Repository email | cisadmin@lib.usc.edu |
| Full text | 196 The empirical results suggest that purely economic considerations alone do not explain the demand for RTAs. Variables included in the empirical analysis test the impact of the collapse of the Soviet Union, a political event, albeit stimulated by failed economic policy. The results from separate specifications confirm that the collapse of the Soviet Union shortens the duration between state independence and an initial RTA. In these instances the motivation is likely political as well as economic. However, the political motivation is closely linked with the commitment to market based capitalism as newly independent states seek to achieve higher standards of living previous unattainable under the influence or control of the Soviet Union. These findings support the conclusion from analysis of the diffusion pattern that the decision to adopt an RTA in not independent of other states. The region effect implies a spatial interdependency likely consistent with the natural trading partner hypothesis whereas the wealth effect is a relational concept by definition. Finally, the collapse of the Soviet Union affected numerous states, each of whom sought to establish previous trade relations as well as new trade relations. To the extent to which newly independent states and former Comecon members adopted the RTA trade policy it is likely that the decision reflected the choice by previous trade partners and potential trade partners to do so. Recent contributions to the literature take seriously the application of diffusion theory to international political economy phenomena. The literature recognizes four distinct sources fueling the diffusion process. This dissertation |
