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188
and the finding by Baier and Bergstrand (2004) that size as measured by GDP
predicts RTA participation overall.
The CGDP coefficient estimates remain statistically significant when
accessions are treated as initial RTAs for European incumbents. The coefficient
estimates range from -7.3% to -5.5%. The statistically significance results from the
favorable treatment of a small number of relatively rich countries and, of course, the
expansion of the sample to include more developing economies states. The analysis
of a larger sample reinforces the earlier finding that per capita income contributes to
shorter duration when accessions are treated as initial RTAs for European
incumbents.
The larger sample improves the statistical significance and increases the
magnitude of the coefficient estimates for Pfree82 and Free82. This result is
consistent with the previous findings that more initial political freedom extends the
duration, to adopt an initial RTA following the US policy announcement. This
finding is consistent with an intuitive expectation that freer states will embrace
liberal economic policy so in the absence of the indicator variable for liberal
economic policy, the coefficient estimates for political freedom increase in
magnitude and statistical significance.
The coefficient estimate for PrevRTA remains statistically significant when
using the Days 2, Days 3, and Days 4 measures of the dependent variable. The
higher magnitude of the positive coefficient estimates suggests a greater reduction in
duration given the reverse coding of the variable. Implied in this finding is that
Object Description
| Title | Riding the wave: an interdisciplinary approach to understanding the popularity of RTA notifications to the GATT/WTO |
| Author | McClough, David Andrew |
| Author email | mcclough@usc.edu; dmcclou@bgsu.edu |
| Degree | Doctor of Philosophy |
| Document type | Dissertation |
| Degree program | Political Economy & Public Policy |
| School | College of Letters, Arts and Sciences |
| Date defended/completed | 2008-08-07 |
| Date submitted | 2008 |
| Restricted until | Unrestricted |
| Date published | 2008-10-18 |
| Advisor (committee chair) | Katada, Saori N. |
| Advisor (committee member) |
Nugent, Jeffrey B. Cartier, Carolyn |
| Abstract | The proliferation of Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs) notified to the GATT/WTO since the early 1980s deviates from the long-term trend and reflects participation of nearly every member of the United Nations. This dissertation seeks to explain the current wave of RTA notifications by supplementing the economic model of supply and demand with diffusion theory. Application of the supply and demand model is useful in distinguishing between changes in demand and changes insupply of RTAs. This distinction is seldom emphasized in the current literature examining RTAs. Recent applications of diffusion theory in the discipline of international relations offer a unique opportunity to include a dynamic force in the static analysis of the supply and demand model. Empirical analysis assesses the fit of the RTA diffusion pattern by comparing the RTA diffusion pattern to a cumulative standard normal distribution. The analysis indicates that the diffusion pattern of RTAs resembles the diffusion of an innovation through a social system.; The implication of this finding is that the adoption of an RTA as trade policy is not made independently of the decision by other states. Indeed, the analysis suggests interdependency between states. Further empirical analysis explores economic and political variables that may explain the decision to adopt the RTA as trade policy. The empirical analysis is unique in that survival analysis is utilized to assess the variation in duration to adopt an initial RTA since the early 1980s. A central discovery is that regional designation explains the variation in duration to adopt an initial RTA. Multiple regression analysis confirms the results generated using survival analysis and support the assertion that the proliferation of RTAs likely reflects changes in both the demand for RTAs and the supply of RTAs. This dissertation concludes by considering implications for the WTO resulting from the increase in RTA notifications. |
| Keyword | trade agreements |
| Coverage date | after 1980 |
| Language | English |
| Part of collection | University of Southern California dissertations and theses |
| Publisher (of the original version) | University of Southern California |
| Place of publication (of the original version) | Los Angeles, California |
| Publisher (of the digital version) | University of Southern California. Libraries |
| Provenance | Electronically uploaded by the author |
| Type | texts |
| Legacy record ID | usctheses-m1675 |
| Contributing entity | University of Southern California |
| Rights | McClough, David Andrew |
| Repository name | Libraries, University of Southern California |
| Repository address | Los Angeles, California |
| Repository email | cisadmin@lib.usc.edu |
| Filename | etd-McClough-2338 |
| Archival file | uscthesesreloadpub_Volume32/etd-McClough-2338.pdf |
Description
| Title | Page 197 |
| Contributing entity | University of Southern California |
| Repository email | cisadmin@lib.usc.edu |
| Full text | 188 and the finding by Baier and Bergstrand (2004) that size as measured by GDP predicts RTA participation overall. The CGDP coefficient estimates remain statistically significant when accessions are treated as initial RTAs for European incumbents. The coefficient estimates range from -7.3% to -5.5%. The statistically significance results from the favorable treatment of a small number of relatively rich countries and, of course, the expansion of the sample to include more developing economies states. The analysis of a larger sample reinforces the earlier finding that per capita income contributes to shorter duration when accessions are treated as initial RTAs for European incumbents. The larger sample improves the statistical significance and increases the magnitude of the coefficient estimates for Pfree82 and Free82. This result is consistent with the previous findings that more initial political freedom extends the duration, to adopt an initial RTA following the US policy announcement. This finding is consistent with an intuitive expectation that freer states will embrace liberal economic policy so in the absence of the indicator variable for liberal economic policy, the coefficient estimates for political freedom increase in magnitude and statistical significance. The coefficient estimate for PrevRTA remains statistically significant when using the Days 2, Days 3, and Days 4 measures of the dependent variable. The higher magnitude of the positive coefficient estimates suggests a greater reduction in duration given the reverse coding of the variable. Implied in this finding is that |
