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185
liberalization are likely to fight to avoid loss, it is reasonable to consider how high
ethnic fractionalization might contribute to longer durations if commercial
occupation and governance are defined by ethnic divisions. Higher levels of ethnic
fractionalization imply relatively smaller ethnic groups, on average, which may more
easily act collectively. Lower levels of ethnic fractionalization imply relatively
larger ethnic groups, on average, which may find it more difficult to act collectively
to delay trade liberalization.
The coefficient estimates for the language fractionalization dummy variables
remain negative but increase in magnitude, which reveals that the language
fractionalization and region are correlated. The increase in the magnitude of a
negative coefficient estimate reflects a reduction in duration. The coefficient
estimates for Langmid are statistically significant only when the GSTP is excluded as
an initial RTA.
The coefficient estimate for the Langhigh grouping is statistically significant
when using Days 3 and nearly significant when using the Days 4 measure of the
dependent variable. This result supports the assertion that language fractionalization
and region are correlated. Despite the lack of statistical significance at conventional
levels, the negative coefficient estimates ranging from -873.580 to -465.438 days
reflect faster adoption of an initial RTA compared to the base case, low language
fractionalization.
The magnitudes of the coefficient estimates of the religion fractionalization
dummy variables are much larger and more statistically significant for both the
Object Description
| Title | Riding the wave: an interdisciplinary approach to understanding the popularity of RTA notifications to the GATT/WTO |
| Author | McClough, David Andrew |
| Author email | mcclough@usc.edu; dmcclou@bgsu.edu |
| Degree | Doctor of Philosophy |
| Document type | Dissertation |
| Degree program | Political Economy & Public Policy |
| School | College of Letters, Arts and Sciences |
| Date defended/completed | 2008-08-07 |
| Date submitted | 2008 |
| Restricted until | Unrestricted |
| Date published | 2008-10-18 |
| Advisor (committee chair) | Katada, Saori N. |
| Advisor (committee member) |
Nugent, Jeffrey B. Cartier, Carolyn |
| Abstract | The proliferation of Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs) notified to the GATT/WTO since the early 1980s deviates from the long-term trend and reflects participation of nearly every member of the United Nations. This dissertation seeks to explain the current wave of RTA notifications by supplementing the economic model of supply and demand with diffusion theory. Application of the supply and demand model is useful in distinguishing between changes in demand and changes insupply of RTAs. This distinction is seldom emphasized in the current literature examining RTAs. Recent applications of diffusion theory in the discipline of international relations offer a unique opportunity to include a dynamic force in the static analysis of the supply and demand model. Empirical analysis assesses the fit of the RTA diffusion pattern by comparing the RTA diffusion pattern to a cumulative standard normal distribution. The analysis indicates that the diffusion pattern of RTAs resembles the diffusion of an innovation through a social system.; The implication of this finding is that the adoption of an RTA as trade policy is not made independently of the decision by other states. Indeed, the analysis suggests interdependency between states. Further empirical analysis explores economic and political variables that may explain the decision to adopt the RTA as trade policy. The empirical analysis is unique in that survival analysis is utilized to assess the variation in duration to adopt an initial RTA since the early 1980s. A central discovery is that regional designation explains the variation in duration to adopt an initial RTA. Multiple regression analysis confirms the results generated using survival analysis and support the assertion that the proliferation of RTAs likely reflects changes in both the demand for RTAs and the supply of RTAs. This dissertation concludes by considering implications for the WTO resulting from the increase in RTA notifications. |
| Keyword | trade agreements |
| Coverage date | after 1980 |
| Language | English |
| Part of collection | University of Southern California dissertations and theses |
| Publisher (of the original version) | University of Southern California |
| Place of publication (of the original version) | Los Angeles, California |
| Publisher (of the digital version) | University of Southern California. Libraries |
| Provenance | Electronically uploaded by the author |
| Type | texts |
| Legacy record ID | usctheses-m1675 |
| Contributing entity | University of Southern California |
| Rights | McClough, David Andrew |
| Repository name | Libraries, University of Southern California |
| Repository address | Los Angeles, California |
| Repository email | cisadmin@lib.usc.edu |
| Filename | etd-McClough-2338 |
| Archival file | uscthesesreloadpub_Volume32/etd-McClough-2338.pdf |
Description
| Title | Page 194 |
| Contributing entity | University of Southern California |
| Repository email | cisadmin@lib.usc.edu |
| Full text | 185 liberalization are likely to fight to avoid loss, it is reasonable to consider how high ethnic fractionalization might contribute to longer durations if commercial occupation and governance are defined by ethnic divisions. Higher levels of ethnic fractionalization imply relatively smaller ethnic groups, on average, which may more easily act collectively. Lower levels of ethnic fractionalization imply relatively larger ethnic groups, on average, which may find it more difficult to act collectively to delay trade liberalization. The coefficient estimates for the language fractionalization dummy variables remain negative but increase in magnitude, which reveals that the language fractionalization and region are correlated. The increase in the magnitude of a negative coefficient estimate reflects a reduction in duration. The coefficient estimates for Langmid are statistically significant only when the GSTP is excluded as an initial RTA. The coefficient estimate for the Langhigh grouping is statistically significant when using Days 3 and nearly significant when using the Days 4 measure of the dependent variable. This result supports the assertion that language fractionalization and region are correlated. Despite the lack of statistical significance at conventional levels, the negative coefficient estimates ranging from -873.580 to -465.438 days reflect faster adoption of an initial RTA compared to the base case, low language fractionalization. The magnitudes of the coefficient estimates of the religion fractionalization dummy variables are much larger and more statistically significant for both the |
