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168
This chapter seeks to employ standard parametric analysis to evaluate the
findings from the previous chapter. A troubling aspect of Cox regression is that it
does not necessarily match time-series data on a year to year basis but rather
estimates probabilities of survival following each occurrence of the event hence, the
name proportional hazard model. This feature is not problematic in studies
examining independent survival rates associated with light bulbs and medical
treatments, however, when trying to examine a political economy phenomenon like
the adoption of RTAs as trade policy, the observed interdependency between states
challenges the meaningfulness of the results. Nonetheless, nonparametric and semi-parametric
methods offer new insights informing our understanding of the RTA
phenomenon.
This chapter employs multiple regression analysis to examine the popularity
of RTAs. Use of regression analysis reduces the size of the sample because there is
missing data for all newly independent states forming after 1982, which includes but
is not limited to: the former Soviet republics, Yugoslav republics, and the Czech and
Slovak republics. Recognizing the spatial concentration of these states, how will the
previous empirical results hold up?
The nonparametric analysis reveals that the time-dependent covariates for
GDP, GDP per capita, and Freedom were not particularly important, however, the
initial value may be important. Accordingly, the cross-sectional regression model
includes only the initial value in 1982 for each of these three variables. Despite little
evidence supporting the importance of previous experience with regional schemes,
Object Description
| Title | Riding the wave: an interdisciplinary approach to understanding the popularity of RTA notifications to the GATT/WTO |
| Author | McClough, David Andrew |
| Author email | mcclough@usc.edu; dmcclou@bgsu.edu |
| Degree | Doctor of Philosophy |
| Document type | Dissertation |
| Degree program | Political Economy & Public Policy |
| School | College of Letters, Arts and Sciences |
| Date defended/completed | 2008-08-07 |
| Date submitted | 2008 |
| Restricted until | Unrestricted |
| Date published | 2008-10-18 |
| Advisor (committee chair) | Katada, Saori N. |
| Advisor (committee member) |
Nugent, Jeffrey B. Cartier, Carolyn |
| Abstract | The proliferation of Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs) notified to the GATT/WTO since the early 1980s deviates from the long-term trend and reflects participation of nearly every member of the United Nations. This dissertation seeks to explain the current wave of RTA notifications by supplementing the economic model of supply and demand with diffusion theory. Application of the supply and demand model is useful in distinguishing between changes in demand and changes insupply of RTAs. This distinction is seldom emphasized in the current literature examining RTAs. Recent applications of diffusion theory in the discipline of international relations offer a unique opportunity to include a dynamic force in the static analysis of the supply and demand model. Empirical analysis assesses the fit of the RTA diffusion pattern by comparing the RTA diffusion pattern to a cumulative standard normal distribution. The analysis indicates that the diffusion pattern of RTAs resembles the diffusion of an innovation through a social system.; The implication of this finding is that the adoption of an RTA as trade policy is not made independently of the decision by other states. Indeed, the analysis suggests interdependency between states. Further empirical analysis explores economic and political variables that may explain the decision to adopt the RTA as trade policy. The empirical analysis is unique in that survival analysis is utilized to assess the variation in duration to adopt an initial RTA since the early 1980s. A central discovery is that regional designation explains the variation in duration to adopt an initial RTA. Multiple regression analysis confirms the results generated using survival analysis and support the assertion that the proliferation of RTAs likely reflects changes in both the demand for RTAs and the supply of RTAs. This dissertation concludes by considering implications for the WTO resulting from the increase in RTA notifications. |
| Keyword | trade agreements |
| Coverage date | after 1980 |
| Language | English |
| Part of collection | University of Southern California dissertations and theses |
| Publisher (of the original version) | University of Southern California |
| Place of publication (of the original version) | Los Angeles, California |
| Publisher (of the digital version) | University of Southern California. Libraries |
| Provenance | Electronically uploaded by the author |
| Type | texts |
| Legacy record ID | usctheses-m1675 |
| Contributing entity | University of Southern California |
| Rights | McClough, David Andrew |
| Repository name | Libraries, University of Southern California |
| Repository address | Los Angeles, California |
| Repository email | cisadmin@lib.usc.edu |
| Filename | etd-McClough-2338 |
| Archival file | uscthesesreloadpub_Volume32/etd-McClough-2338.pdf |
Description
| Title | Page 177 |
| Contributing entity | University of Southern California |
| Repository email | cisadmin@lib.usc.edu |
| Full text | 168 This chapter seeks to employ standard parametric analysis to evaluate the findings from the previous chapter. A troubling aspect of Cox regression is that it does not necessarily match time-series data on a year to year basis but rather estimates probabilities of survival following each occurrence of the event hence, the name proportional hazard model. This feature is not problematic in studies examining independent survival rates associated with light bulbs and medical treatments, however, when trying to examine a political economy phenomenon like the adoption of RTAs as trade policy, the observed interdependency between states challenges the meaningfulness of the results. Nonetheless, nonparametric and semi-parametric methods offer new insights informing our understanding of the RTA phenomenon. This chapter employs multiple regression analysis to examine the popularity of RTAs. Use of regression analysis reduces the size of the sample because there is missing data for all newly independent states forming after 1982, which includes but is not limited to: the former Soviet republics, Yugoslav republics, and the Czech and Slovak republics. Recognizing the spatial concentration of these states, how will the previous empirical results hold up? The nonparametric analysis reveals that the time-dependent covariates for GDP, GDP per capita, and Freedom were not particularly important, however, the initial value may be important. Accordingly, the cross-sectional regression model includes only the initial value in 1982 for each of these three variables. Despite little evidence supporting the importance of previous experience with regional schemes, |
