Page 176 |
Save page Remove page | Previous | 176 of 229 | Next |
|
small (250x250 max)
medium (500x500 max)
Large (1000x1000 max)
Extra Large
large ( > 500x500)
Full Resolution
All (PDF)
|
This page
All
|
167
CHAPTER 6
PARAMETRIC ANALYSIS
In the previous chapter survival analysis is used to identify variables that
influence the variation in days to adopt an initial RTA following the US policy
reversal. Variables that shorten the duration between the US announcement and
adoption of an initial RTA are identified as potential determinants of demand or
determinants of supply to explain the current wave of RTA notifications to the
GATT/WTO. The findings reveal that the adoption of the RTA trade policy varies
across regions, which is argued to reflect a change in a determinant of support,
specifically a technological innovation. In addition, the findings reveal that income,
generally, and the per capita income growth rate, specifically, explains variation in
duration. Income related variables are considered determinants of demand. This
finding is interpreted as indication of a wealth effect; faster income growth
stimulates import demand and mitigates protectionist forces. In addition, the
collapse of the Soviet Union inspired formation of new states, which adopted the
RTA trade policy quickly. This finding is interpreted as change in a determinant of
demand, specifically a change in the tastes and preferences favoring formalized trade
liberalization. In their entirety these findings support the central assertion of this
research that the proliferation of RTAs can be understood as a diffusion process as
innovative RTAs are introduced to meet the demand for additional trade
liberalization.
Object Description
| Title | Riding the wave: an interdisciplinary approach to understanding the popularity of RTA notifications to the GATT/WTO |
| Author | McClough, David Andrew |
| Author email | mcclough@usc.edu; dmcclou@bgsu.edu |
| Degree | Doctor of Philosophy |
| Document type | Dissertation |
| Degree program | Political Economy & Public Policy |
| School | College of Letters, Arts and Sciences |
| Date defended/completed | 2008-08-07 |
| Date submitted | 2008 |
| Restricted until | Unrestricted |
| Date published | 2008-10-18 |
| Advisor (committee chair) | Katada, Saori N. |
| Advisor (committee member) |
Nugent, Jeffrey B. Cartier, Carolyn |
| Abstract | The proliferation of Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs) notified to the GATT/WTO since the early 1980s deviates from the long-term trend and reflects participation of nearly every member of the United Nations. This dissertation seeks to explain the current wave of RTA notifications by supplementing the economic model of supply and demand with diffusion theory. Application of the supply and demand model is useful in distinguishing between changes in demand and changes insupply of RTAs. This distinction is seldom emphasized in the current literature examining RTAs. Recent applications of diffusion theory in the discipline of international relations offer a unique opportunity to include a dynamic force in the static analysis of the supply and demand model. Empirical analysis assesses the fit of the RTA diffusion pattern by comparing the RTA diffusion pattern to a cumulative standard normal distribution. The analysis indicates that the diffusion pattern of RTAs resembles the diffusion of an innovation through a social system.; The implication of this finding is that the adoption of an RTA as trade policy is not made independently of the decision by other states. Indeed, the analysis suggests interdependency between states. Further empirical analysis explores economic and political variables that may explain the decision to adopt the RTA as trade policy. The empirical analysis is unique in that survival analysis is utilized to assess the variation in duration to adopt an initial RTA since the early 1980s. A central discovery is that regional designation explains the variation in duration to adopt an initial RTA. Multiple regression analysis confirms the results generated using survival analysis and support the assertion that the proliferation of RTAs likely reflects changes in both the demand for RTAs and the supply of RTAs. This dissertation concludes by considering implications for the WTO resulting from the increase in RTA notifications. |
| Keyword | trade agreements |
| Coverage date | after 1980 |
| Language | English |
| Part of collection | University of Southern California dissertations and theses |
| Publisher (of the original version) | University of Southern California |
| Place of publication (of the original version) | Los Angeles, California |
| Publisher (of the digital version) | University of Southern California. Libraries |
| Provenance | Electronically uploaded by the author |
| Type | texts |
| Legacy record ID | usctheses-m1675 |
| Contributing entity | University of Southern California |
| Rights | McClough, David Andrew |
| Repository name | Libraries, University of Southern California |
| Repository address | Los Angeles, California |
| Repository email | cisadmin@lib.usc.edu |
| Filename | etd-McClough-2338 |
| Archival file | uscthesesreloadpub_Volume32/etd-McClough-2338.pdf |
Description
| Title | Page 176 |
| Contributing entity | University of Southern California |
| Repository email | cisadmin@lib.usc.edu |
| Full text | 167 CHAPTER 6 PARAMETRIC ANALYSIS In the previous chapter survival analysis is used to identify variables that influence the variation in days to adopt an initial RTA following the US policy reversal. Variables that shorten the duration between the US announcement and adoption of an initial RTA are identified as potential determinants of demand or determinants of supply to explain the current wave of RTA notifications to the GATT/WTO. The findings reveal that the adoption of the RTA trade policy varies across regions, which is argued to reflect a change in a determinant of support, specifically a technological innovation. In addition, the findings reveal that income, generally, and the per capita income growth rate, specifically, explains variation in duration. Income related variables are considered determinants of demand. This finding is interpreted as indication of a wealth effect; faster income growth stimulates import demand and mitigates protectionist forces. In addition, the collapse of the Soviet Union inspired formation of new states, which adopted the RTA trade policy quickly. This finding is interpreted as change in a determinant of demand, specifically a change in the tastes and preferences favoring formalized trade liberalization. In their entirety these findings support the central assertion of this research that the proliferation of RTAs can be understood as a diffusion process as innovative RTAs are introduced to meet the demand for additional trade liberalization. |
