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163
Table 43: Model 3 w/o Language and Religion
Fractionization -- Computation of Magnitude of exp(β)
Specification 1 Specification 2 Specification 3
GDP 1.0 1.0 1.0
GDP growth .918 .975
CGDP 1.0 1.0 1.0
CGDP growth 1.066 .976
Freedom .798 .808 .805
Region
Mideast & North
Africa
.168 .152 .156
Sub-Saharan
Africa
.178 .165 .167
Oceania .054 .056 .055
South Asia .148 .144 .145
Central Asia 1.3 1.311 1.301
East Asia .125 .129 .127
Europe .307 .334 .324
South
America
.295 .308 .303
North
America
.069 .070 .069
Formsov 1.48 1.515 1.501
Ethnic .762 .773 .769
Open 1.001 .978 .985
The removal of the language and religion fractionalization measures impacts
the coefficient estimates of the components of the region variable more than the
coefficient estimate of the ethnic fractionalization variable. This result suggests that
some part of the linguistic-religion effect is correlated to state proximity. The
coefficient estimate for the ethnic fractionalization measure remains negative and
statistically significant in the absence of the two other fractionalization measures.
The negative coefficient estimate implies a decrease in the hazard ratio for an
increase in ethnic fractionalization. Theory suggests that ethnic fractionalization
Object Description
| Title | Riding the wave: an interdisciplinary approach to understanding the popularity of RTA notifications to the GATT/WTO |
| Author | McClough, David Andrew |
| Author email | mcclough@usc.edu; dmcclou@bgsu.edu |
| Degree | Doctor of Philosophy |
| Document type | Dissertation |
| Degree program | Political Economy & Public Policy |
| School | College of Letters, Arts and Sciences |
| Date defended/completed | 2008-08-07 |
| Date submitted | 2008 |
| Restricted until | Unrestricted |
| Date published | 2008-10-18 |
| Advisor (committee chair) | Katada, Saori N. |
| Advisor (committee member) |
Nugent, Jeffrey B. Cartier, Carolyn |
| Abstract | The proliferation of Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs) notified to the GATT/WTO since the early 1980s deviates from the long-term trend and reflects participation of nearly every member of the United Nations. This dissertation seeks to explain the current wave of RTA notifications by supplementing the economic model of supply and demand with diffusion theory. Application of the supply and demand model is useful in distinguishing between changes in demand and changes insupply of RTAs. This distinction is seldom emphasized in the current literature examining RTAs. Recent applications of diffusion theory in the discipline of international relations offer a unique opportunity to include a dynamic force in the static analysis of the supply and demand model. Empirical analysis assesses the fit of the RTA diffusion pattern by comparing the RTA diffusion pattern to a cumulative standard normal distribution. The analysis indicates that the diffusion pattern of RTAs resembles the diffusion of an innovation through a social system.; The implication of this finding is that the adoption of an RTA as trade policy is not made independently of the decision by other states. Indeed, the analysis suggests interdependency between states. Further empirical analysis explores economic and political variables that may explain the decision to adopt the RTA as trade policy. The empirical analysis is unique in that survival analysis is utilized to assess the variation in duration to adopt an initial RTA since the early 1980s. A central discovery is that regional designation explains the variation in duration to adopt an initial RTA. Multiple regression analysis confirms the results generated using survival analysis and support the assertion that the proliferation of RTAs likely reflects changes in both the demand for RTAs and the supply of RTAs. This dissertation concludes by considering implications for the WTO resulting from the increase in RTA notifications. |
| Keyword | trade agreements |
| Coverage date | after 1980 |
| Language | English |
| Part of collection | University of Southern California dissertations and theses |
| Publisher (of the original version) | University of Southern California |
| Place of publication (of the original version) | Los Angeles, California |
| Publisher (of the digital version) | University of Southern California. Libraries |
| Provenance | Electronically uploaded by the author |
| Type | texts |
| Legacy record ID | usctheses-m1675 |
| Contributing entity | University of Southern California |
| Rights | McClough, David Andrew |
| Repository name | Libraries, University of Southern California |
| Repository address | Los Angeles, California |
| Repository email | cisadmin@lib.usc.edu |
| Filename | etd-McClough-2338 |
| Archival file | uscthesesreloadpub_Volume32/etd-McClough-2338.pdf |
Description
| Title | Page 172 |
| Contributing entity | University of Southern California |
| Repository email | cisadmin@lib.usc.edu |
| Full text | 163 Table 43: Model 3 w/o Language and Religion Fractionization -- Computation of Magnitude of exp(β) Specification 1 Specification 2 Specification 3 GDP 1.0 1.0 1.0 GDP growth .918 .975 CGDP 1.0 1.0 1.0 CGDP growth 1.066 .976 Freedom .798 .808 .805 Region Mideast & North Africa .168 .152 .156 Sub-Saharan Africa .178 .165 .167 Oceania .054 .056 .055 South Asia .148 .144 .145 Central Asia 1.3 1.311 1.301 East Asia .125 .129 .127 Europe .307 .334 .324 South America .295 .308 .303 North America .069 .070 .069 Formsov 1.48 1.515 1.501 Ethnic .762 .773 .769 Open 1.001 .978 .985 The removal of the language and religion fractionalization measures impacts the coefficient estimates of the components of the region variable more than the coefficient estimate of the ethnic fractionalization variable. This result suggests that some part of the linguistic-religion effect is correlated to state proximity. The coefficient estimate for the ethnic fractionalization measure remains negative and statistically significant in the absence of the two other fractionalization measures. The negative coefficient estimate implies a decrease in the hazard ratio for an increase in ethnic fractionalization. Theory suggests that ethnic fractionalization |
