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160
communication between states sharing a common ethnicity. Although inconsistent
with the theoretical prediction, this result is not disappointing. Use of three measures
of cultural similarity affords more precision in isolating effects. The partial support
demonstrated by the religion and language fractionalization measures suggests that
language and religion similarities may contribute to demand for RTAs. Indeed the
importance of these considerations can be seen anecdotally in the first US RTA with
Israel and China’s early RTA with Singapore. The economic importance of Israel to
the US economy is minimal, the political importance of the RTA is linked to political
and security issues, which persist due to an influential pro-Israeli lobby in the US
linked to Israel by a shared religion. Singapore is a state dominated by ethnic
Chinese (>75%), who observe Buddhism (42.5%) and speak Mandarin (35%) or
Cantonese (5.7%).42
The results from this analysis offer evidence that cultural fractionalization
contributes to demand for RTAs. The religious and language fractionalization scores
offer partial support. Accordingly it is reasonable to suggest that shared culture may
serve influence demand for RTAs.
Table 42 demonstrates the impact of retaining the ethnic fractionalization
variable that was statistically significant in the preceding analysis and removing of
language and religion fractionalization measures that did not achieve statistical
significance. The expectation is that the ethnic fractionalization measure will be
42 These data are taken from the CIA World Fact Book. In all cases the 2000 census is cited as the
source of the data. The second most popular language in Singapore is English (23%). According to
the WTO, Singapore completed an RTAs with the US, New Zealand, and Australia, which are
predominately English speaking countries despite not ethnically Chinese.
Object Description
| Title | Riding the wave: an interdisciplinary approach to understanding the popularity of RTA notifications to the GATT/WTO |
| Author | McClough, David Andrew |
| Author email | mcclough@usc.edu; dmcclou@bgsu.edu |
| Degree | Doctor of Philosophy |
| Document type | Dissertation |
| Degree program | Political Economy & Public Policy |
| School | College of Letters, Arts and Sciences |
| Date defended/completed | 2008-08-07 |
| Date submitted | 2008 |
| Restricted until | Unrestricted |
| Date published | 2008-10-18 |
| Advisor (committee chair) | Katada, Saori N. |
| Advisor (committee member) |
Nugent, Jeffrey B. Cartier, Carolyn |
| Abstract | The proliferation of Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs) notified to the GATT/WTO since the early 1980s deviates from the long-term trend and reflects participation of nearly every member of the United Nations. This dissertation seeks to explain the current wave of RTA notifications by supplementing the economic model of supply and demand with diffusion theory. Application of the supply and demand model is useful in distinguishing between changes in demand and changes insupply of RTAs. This distinction is seldom emphasized in the current literature examining RTAs. Recent applications of diffusion theory in the discipline of international relations offer a unique opportunity to include a dynamic force in the static analysis of the supply and demand model. Empirical analysis assesses the fit of the RTA diffusion pattern by comparing the RTA diffusion pattern to a cumulative standard normal distribution. The analysis indicates that the diffusion pattern of RTAs resembles the diffusion of an innovation through a social system.; The implication of this finding is that the adoption of an RTA as trade policy is not made independently of the decision by other states. Indeed, the analysis suggests interdependency between states. Further empirical analysis explores economic and political variables that may explain the decision to adopt the RTA as trade policy. The empirical analysis is unique in that survival analysis is utilized to assess the variation in duration to adopt an initial RTA since the early 1980s. A central discovery is that regional designation explains the variation in duration to adopt an initial RTA. Multiple regression analysis confirms the results generated using survival analysis and support the assertion that the proliferation of RTAs likely reflects changes in both the demand for RTAs and the supply of RTAs. This dissertation concludes by considering implications for the WTO resulting from the increase in RTA notifications. |
| Keyword | trade agreements |
| Coverage date | after 1980 |
| Language | English |
| Part of collection | University of Southern California dissertations and theses |
| Publisher (of the original version) | University of Southern California |
| Place of publication (of the original version) | Los Angeles, California |
| Publisher (of the digital version) | University of Southern California. Libraries |
| Provenance | Electronically uploaded by the author |
| Type | texts |
| Legacy record ID | usctheses-m1675 |
| Contributing entity | University of Southern California |
| Rights | McClough, David Andrew |
| Repository name | Libraries, University of Southern California |
| Repository address | Los Angeles, California |
| Repository email | cisadmin@lib.usc.edu |
| Filename | etd-McClough-2338 |
| Archival file | uscthesesreloadpub_Volume32/etd-McClough-2338.pdf |
Description
| Title | Page 169 |
| Contributing entity | University of Southern California |
| Repository email | cisadmin@lib.usc.edu |
| Full text | 160 communication between states sharing a common ethnicity. Although inconsistent with the theoretical prediction, this result is not disappointing. Use of three measures of cultural similarity affords more precision in isolating effects. The partial support demonstrated by the religion and language fractionalization measures suggests that language and religion similarities may contribute to demand for RTAs. Indeed the importance of these considerations can be seen anecdotally in the first US RTA with Israel and China’s early RTA with Singapore. The economic importance of Israel to the US economy is minimal, the political importance of the RTA is linked to political and security issues, which persist due to an influential pro-Israeli lobby in the US linked to Israel by a shared religion. Singapore is a state dominated by ethnic Chinese (>75%), who observe Buddhism (42.5%) and speak Mandarin (35%) or Cantonese (5.7%).42 The results from this analysis offer evidence that cultural fractionalization contributes to demand for RTAs. The religious and language fractionalization scores offer partial support. Accordingly it is reasonable to suggest that shared culture may serve influence demand for RTAs. Table 42 demonstrates the impact of retaining the ethnic fractionalization variable that was statistically significant in the preceding analysis and removing of language and religion fractionalization measures that did not achieve statistical significance. The expectation is that the ethnic fractionalization measure will be 42 These data are taken from the CIA World Fact Book. In all cases the 2000 census is cited as the source of the data. The second most popular language in Singapore is English (23%). According to the WTO, Singapore completed an RTAs with the US, New Zealand, and Australia, which are predominately English speaking countries despite not ethnically Chinese. |
