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155
estimate for a single component being statistically significant when using the US as
the base case. Revising the analysis to reflect the US as the base case has
consequences for the calculation of statistical significance given that the cell size of
the base case is only one observation, the US. Accordingly, achievement statistical
significance will be more difficult than before when North America served as the
base case.
In all three specifications, neither Language nor Religion is statistically
significant overall whereas; Ethnic is statistically significant in all three
specifications. Moreover, the sign, direction, of the coefficient estimates fluctuate
using, in all cases, Low as the base case. The negative coefficient estimate of the
ethnic fractionalization variable suggests that higher measures of ethnic
fractionalization are associated with increased survival. In contrast, positive
coefficient estimates for the middle category of the religion variable and high
category of the language variable offer evidence of a potential negative influence on
survival rates compared to the base case, low fractionalization.
Table 41 presents the values for exp(β). The table reveals very similar results
across all three specifications suggesting that the strong correlation between the
growth rates for GDP and per capita GDP has little impact on the other coefficient
estimates. To interpret these results recall that a value of 1 reflects no impact by the
variable on the proportional hazard ratio. However, small deviations from 1 may be
economically or politically significant depending upon the units of measurement for
each variable.
Object Description
| Title | Riding the wave: an interdisciplinary approach to understanding the popularity of RTA notifications to the GATT/WTO |
| Author | McClough, David Andrew |
| Author email | mcclough@usc.edu; dmcclou@bgsu.edu |
| Degree | Doctor of Philosophy |
| Document type | Dissertation |
| Degree program | Political Economy & Public Policy |
| School | College of Letters, Arts and Sciences |
| Date defended/completed | 2008-08-07 |
| Date submitted | 2008 |
| Restricted until | Unrestricted |
| Date published | 2008-10-18 |
| Advisor (committee chair) | Katada, Saori N. |
| Advisor (committee member) |
Nugent, Jeffrey B. Cartier, Carolyn |
| Abstract | The proliferation of Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs) notified to the GATT/WTO since the early 1980s deviates from the long-term trend and reflects participation of nearly every member of the United Nations. This dissertation seeks to explain the current wave of RTA notifications by supplementing the economic model of supply and demand with diffusion theory. Application of the supply and demand model is useful in distinguishing between changes in demand and changes insupply of RTAs. This distinction is seldom emphasized in the current literature examining RTAs. Recent applications of diffusion theory in the discipline of international relations offer a unique opportunity to include a dynamic force in the static analysis of the supply and demand model. Empirical analysis assesses the fit of the RTA diffusion pattern by comparing the RTA diffusion pattern to a cumulative standard normal distribution. The analysis indicates that the diffusion pattern of RTAs resembles the diffusion of an innovation through a social system.; The implication of this finding is that the adoption of an RTA as trade policy is not made independently of the decision by other states. Indeed, the analysis suggests interdependency between states. Further empirical analysis explores economic and political variables that may explain the decision to adopt the RTA as trade policy. The empirical analysis is unique in that survival analysis is utilized to assess the variation in duration to adopt an initial RTA since the early 1980s. A central discovery is that regional designation explains the variation in duration to adopt an initial RTA. Multiple regression analysis confirms the results generated using survival analysis and support the assertion that the proliferation of RTAs likely reflects changes in both the demand for RTAs and the supply of RTAs. This dissertation concludes by considering implications for the WTO resulting from the increase in RTA notifications. |
| Keyword | trade agreements |
| Coverage date | after 1980 |
| Language | English |
| Part of collection | University of Southern California dissertations and theses |
| Publisher (of the original version) | University of Southern California |
| Place of publication (of the original version) | Los Angeles, California |
| Publisher (of the digital version) | University of Southern California. Libraries |
| Provenance | Electronically uploaded by the author |
| Type | texts |
| Legacy record ID | usctheses-m1675 |
| Contributing entity | University of Southern California |
| Rights | McClough, David Andrew |
| Repository name | Libraries, University of Southern California |
| Repository address | Los Angeles, California |
| Repository email | cisadmin@lib.usc.edu |
| Filename | etd-McClough-2338 |
| Archival file | uscthesesreloadpub_Volume32/etd-McClough-2338.pdf |
Description
| Title | Page 164 |
| Contributing entity | University of Southern California |
| Repository email | cisadmin@lib.usc.edu |
| Full text | 155 estimate for a single component being statistically significant when using the US as the base case. Revising the analysis to reflect the US as the base case has consequences for the calculation of statistical significance given that the cell size of the base case is only one observation, the US. Accordingly, achievement statistical significance will be more difficult than before when North America served as the base case. In all three specifications, neither Language nor Religion is statistically significant overall whereas; Ethnic is statistically significant in all three specifications. Moreover, the sign, direction, of the coefficient estimates fluctuate using, in all cases, Low as the base case. The negative coefficient estimate of the ethnic fractionalization variable suggests that higher measures of ethnic fractionalization are associated with increased survival. In contrast, positive coefficient estimates for the middle category of the religion variable and high category of the language variable offer evidence of a potential negative influence on survival rates compared to the base case, low fractionalization. Table 41 presents the values for exp(β). The table reveals very similar results across all three specifications suggesting that the strong correlation between the growth rates for GDP and per capita GDP has little impact on the other coefficient estimates. To interpret these results recall that a value of 1 reflects no impact by the variable on the proportional hazard ratio. However, small deviations from 1 may be economically or politically significant depending upon the units of measurement for each variable. |
