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150
for the states comprising each variable however, only Formsov is statistically
significant (p = .001).
Table 39 reports the exp(β) for each variable of all four measures of the
dependent variables used in specifications of Model 2. The variables Formsov,
Formyug, and Comecon reduce the distinction between the dependent variables. The
treatment of European incumbents still has perceptible effect on Income but the
treatment of GSTP signatories has less effect on Region. Cursory examination of the
new variables suggests that treatment of the European incumbents has more of an
effect than treatment of the GSTP signatories.
Overall, the values for the components of Region in Table 39 are larger in
magnitude than the values in Table 37, whereas the values for the components of
Income in Table 39 are smaller in magnitude than the values in Table 37. The values
presented in Table 39 reveal greater relative survival rates of each component of the
Region variable and shorter relative survival rates for each Income category. With
respect to the new variables, the values for the variable Formsov imply a decrease in
the survival rate compared to the base case, states not formerly republics of the of
Soviet Union, ranging from 346.1% to 486%. This analysis offers evidence that the
collapse of the Soviet Union contributed to an increase in the demand for RTAs.
The increase in demand is isolated to former Soviet republics rather than
former Comecon members and newly independent states resulting from the
disintegration of Yugoslavia. It seems fair to suggest that the rapidity with which the
newly independent states engage the RTA trade policy precludes any development of
Object Description
| Title | Riding the wave: an interdisciplinary approach to understanding the popularity of RTA notifications to the GATT/WTO |
| Author | McClough, David Andrew |
| Author email | mcclough@usc.edu; dmcclou@bgsu.edu |
| Degree | Doctor of Philosophy |
| Document type | Dissertation |
| Degree program | Political Economy & Public Policy |
| School | College of Letters, Arts and Sciences |
| Date defended/completed | 2008-08-07 |
| Date submitted | 2008 |
| Restricted until | Unrestricted |
| Date published | 2008-10-18 |
| Advisor (committee chair) | Katada, Saori N. |
| Advisor (committee member) |
Nugent, Jeffrey B. Cartier, Carolyn |
| Abstract | The proliferation of Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs) notified to the GATT/WTO since the early 1980s deviates from the long-term trend and reflects participation of nearly every member of the United Nations. This dissertation seeks to explain the current wave of RTA notifications by supplementing the economic model of supply and demand with diffusion theory. Application of the supply and demand model is useful in distinguishing between changes in demand and changes insupply of RTAs. This distinction is seldom emphasized in the current literature examining RTAs. Recent applications of diffusion theory in the discipline of international relations offer a unique opportunity to include a dynamic force in the static analysis of the supply and demand model. Empirical analysis assesses the fit of the RTA diffusion pattern by comparing the RTA diffusion pattern to a cumulative standard normal distribution. The analysis indicates that the diffusion pattern of RTAs resembles the diffusion of an innovation through a social system.; The implication of this finding is that the adoption of an RTA as trade policy is not made independently of the decision by other states. Indeed, the analysis suggests interdependency between states. Further empirical analysis explores economic and political variables that may explain the decision to adopt the RTA as trade policy. The empirical analysis is unique in that survival analysis is utilized to assess the variation in duration to adopt an initial RTA since the early 1980s. A central discovery is that regional designation explains the variation in duration to adopt an initial RTA. Multiple regression analysis confirms the results generated using survival analysis and support the assertion that the proliferation of RTAs likely reflects changes in both the demand for RTAs and the supply of RTAs. This dissertation concludes by considering implications for the WTO resulting from the increase in RTA notifications. |
| Keyword | trade agreements |
| Coverage date | after 1980 |
| Language | English |
| Part of collection | University of Southern California dissertations and theses |
| Publisher (of the original version) | University of Southern California |
| Place of publication (of the original version) | Los Angeles, California |
| Publisher (of the digital version) | University of Southern California. Libraries |
| Provenance | Electronically uploaded by the author |
| Type | texts |
| Legacy record ID | usctheses-m1675 |
| Contributing entity | University of Southern California |
| Rights | McClough, David Andrew |
| Repository name | Libraries, University of Southern California |
| Repository address | Los Angeles, California |
| Repository email | cisadmin@lib.usc.edu |
| Filename | etd-McClough-2338 |
| Archival file | uscthesesreloadpub_Volume32/etd-McClough-2338.pdf |
Description
| Title | Page 159 |
| Contributing entity | University of Southern California |
| Repository email | cisadmin@lib.usc.edu |
| Full text | 150 for the states comprising each variable however, only Formsov is statistically significant (p = .001). Table 39 reports the exp(β) for each variable of all four measures of the dependent variables used in specifications of Model 2. The variables Formsov, Formyug, and Comecon reduce the distinction between the dependent variables. The treatment of European incumbents still has perceptible effect on Income but the treatment of GSTP signatories has less effect on Region. Cursory examination of the new variables suggests that treatment of the European incumbents has more of an effect than treatment of the GSTP signatories. Overall, the values for the components of Region in Table 39 are larger in magnitude than the values in Table 37, whereas the values for the components of Income in Table 39 are smaller in magnitude than the values in Table 37. The values presented in Table 39 reveal greater relative survival rates of each component of the Region variable and shorter relative survival rates for each Income category. With respect to the new variables, the values for the variable Formsov imply a decrease in the survival rate compared to the base case, states not formerly republics of the of Soviet Union, ranging from 346.1% to 486%. This analysis offers evidence that the collapse of the Soviet Union contributed to an increase in the demand for RTAs. The increase in demand is isolated to former Soviet republics rather than former Comecon members and newly independent states resulting from the disintegration of Yugoslavia. It seems fair to suggest that the rapidity with which the newly independent states engage the RTA trade policy precludes any development of |
