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145
are identical thus unaffected by the variable) whereas; values greater than one are
associated with increased hazard (decreased survival) and values less than one are
associated with (decreased hazard) increased survival. Table 37 reports the exp(β)
for each variable using four measures of the dependent variable.
Table 37: Model 1 -- Computation of Magnitude of exp(β)
Measures of Dependent Variable
Covariate (base case) Days Days 2 Days 3 Days 4
Region (N. America)
East Asia .051 .051 .031 .028
Europe .071 .101 .034 .038
South America .363 .290 .324 .288
M. East / N. Africa .344 .452 .224 .251
South Asia .158 .172 .067 .062
Sub-Saharan Africa .138 .171 .047 .047
Oceania .054 .061 .040 .040
Central Asia .014 .034 .014 .019
Income (Low)
Lower Middle .684 1.544 .838 1.107
Upper Middle .344 .880 .371 .550
High: non OECD .554 1.342 .745 1.021
High: OECD .057 .178 .050 .079
Open (closed) 1.180 1.234 1.243 1.290
PrevRTA (no RTA) .975 .890 .782 .722
Religion (Low)
Middle .815 .776 1.214 1.225
High .714 .762 .740 .750
Language (Low)
Middle .848 .842 .713 .713
High 1.254 1.219 1.170 1.183
Ethnic (Low) .747 .780 .707 .683
A cursory examination of Table 37 suggests the treatment of GSTP
signatories has a greater impact on the results than treatment of the European
incumbents. The treatment of the GSTP signatories is apparent in the estimates of
Object Description
| Title | Riding the wave: an interdisciplinary approach to understanding the popularity of RTA notifications to the GATT/WTO |
| Author | McClough, David Andrew |
| Author email | mcclough@usc.edu; dmcclou@bgsu.edu |
| Degree | Doctor of Philosophy |
| Document type | Dissertation |
| Degree program | Political Economy & Public Policy |
| School | College of Letters, Arts and Sciences |
| Date defended/completed | 2008-08-07 |
| Date submitted | 2008 |
| Restricted until | Unrestricted |
| Date published | 2008-10-18 |
| Advisor (committee chair) | Katada, Saori N. |
| Advisor (committee member) |
Nugent, Jeffrey B. Cartier, Carolyn |
| Abstract | The proliferation of Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs) notified to the GATT/WTO since the early 1980s deviates from the long-term trend and reflects participation of nearly every member of the United Nations. This dissertation seeks to explain the current wave of RTA notifications by supplementing the economic model of supply and demand with diffusion theory. Application of the supply and demand model is useful in distinguishing between changes in demand and changes insupply of RTAs. This distinction is seldom emphasized in the current literature examining RTAs. Recent applications of diffusion theory in the discipline of international relations offer a unique opportunity to include a dynamic force in the static analysis of the supply and demand model. Empirical analysis assesses the fit of the RTA diffusion pattern by comparing the RTA diffusion pattern to a cumulative standard normal distribution. The analysis indicates that the diffusion pattern of RTAs resembles the diffusion of an innovation through a social system.; The implication of this finding is that the adoption of an RTA as trade policy is not made independently of the decision by other states. Indeed, the analysis suggests interdependency between states. Further empirical analysis explores economic and political variables that may explain the decision to adopt the RTA as trade policy. The empirical analysis is unique in that survival analysis is utilized to assess the variation in duration to adopt an initial RTA since the early 1980s. A central discovery is that regional designation explains the variation in duration to adopt an initial RTA. Multiple regression analysis confirms the results generated using survival analysis and support the assertion that the proliferation of RTAs likely reflects changes in both the demand for RTAs and the supply of RTAs. This dissertation concludes by considering implications for the WTO resulting from the increase in RTA notifications. |
| Keyword | trade agreements |
| Coverage date | after 1980 |
| Language | English |
| Part of collection | University of Southern California dissertations and theses |
| Publisher (of the original version) | University of Southern California |
| Place of publication (of the original version) | Los Angeles, California |
| Publisher (of the digital version) | University of Southern California. Libraries |
| Provenance | Electronically uploaded by the author |
| Type | texts |
| Legacy record ID | usctheses-m1675 |
| Contributing entity | University of Southern California |
| Rights | McClough, David Andrew |
| Repository name | Libraries, University of Southern California |
| Repository address | Los Angeles, California |
| Repository email | cisadmin@lib.usc.edu |
| Filename | etd-McClough-2338 |
| Archival file | uscthesesreloadpub_Volume32/etd-McClough-2338.pdf |
Description
| Title | Page 154 |
| Contributing entity | University of Southern California |
| Repository email | cisadmin@lib.usc.edu |
| Full text | 145 are identical thus unaffected by the variable) whereas; values greater than one are associated with increased hazard (decreased survival) and values less than one are associated with (decreased hazard) increased survival. Table 37 reports the exp(β) for each variable using four measures of the dependent variable. Table 37: Model 1 -- Computation of Magnitude of exp(β) Measures of Dependent Variable Covariate (base case) Days Days 2 Days 3 Days 4 Region (N. America) East Asia .051 .051 .031 .028 Europe .071 .101 .034 .038 South America .363 .290 .324 .288 M. East / N. Africa .344 .452 .224 .251 South Asia .158 .172 .067 .062 Sub-Saharan Africa .138 .171 .047 .047 Oceania .054 .061 .040 .040 Central Asia .014 .034 .014 .019 Income (Low) Lower Middle .684 1.544 .838 1.107 Upper Middle .344 .880 .371 .550 High: non OECD .554 1.342 .745 1.021 High: OECD .057 .178 .050 .079 Open (closed) 1.180 1.234 1.243 1.290 PrevRTA (no RTA) .975 .890 .782 .722 Religion (Low) Middle .815 .776 1.214 1.225 High .714 .762 .740 .750 Language (Low) Middle .848 .842 .713 .713 High 1.254 1.219 1.170 1.183 Ethnic (Low) .747 .780 .707 .683 A cursory examination of Table 37 suggests the treatment of GSTP signatories has a greater impact on the results than treatment of the European incumbents. The treatment of the GSTP signatories is apparent in the estimates of |
