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134
Data
Each observation (row) in the data set reflects a state, as identified by
membership in the United Nations (UN). Only states in existence at the conclusion
of the period of study are included. Membership of the UN for the time period under
consideration includes 192 states. Of these UN member states, 159 (83%) form or
join an RTA between 1983 and 2006; thirty-three states (17%) do not and represent
censored observations.
The Cox regression procedure omits observations missing data, which results
in a dataset containing 132 observations including six censored cases. Sixty states
(31%) are omitted due to missing data. Fifty-four states are missing data for the
indicator variable representing trade policy. Sixteen states are missing economic
data.
Annual state specific economic data for time-dependent covariates is
compiled using the World Bank Group’s World Development Indicators. Annual
political freedom state specific data is taken from the annual Freedom House global
survey of political rights and civil liberties, which identifies states as free, partly free,
or not free. Annual time-dependent covariate data is compiled for the years 1982
through 2006. For states gaining independence after December 1, 1982, the date of
independence is taken from the US Central Intelligence Agency’s World Fact Book.
Measurement of trade openness is frequently represented by the percentage
of a nation’s output comprised of imports and exports. This measure is not ideal as it
is determined endogeneously. To address this shortcoming, Jeffrey Sachs and
Object Description
| Title | Riding the wave: an interdisciplinary approach to understanding the popularity of RTA notifications to the GATT/WTO |
| Author | McClough, David Andrew |
| Author email | mcclough@usc.edu; dmcclou@bgsu.edu |
| Degree | Doctor of Philosophy |
| Document type | Dissertation |
| Degree program | Political Economy & Public Policy |
| School | College of Letters, Arts and Sciences |
| Date defended/completed | 2008-08-07 |
| Date submitted | 2008 |
| Restricted until | Unrestricted |
| Date published | 2008-10-18 |
| Advisor (committee chair) | Katada, Saori N. |
| Advisor (committee member) |
Nugent, Jeffrey B. Cartier, Carolyn |
| Abstract | The proliferation of Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs) notified to the GATT/WTO since the early 1980s deviates from the long-term trend and reflects participation of nearly every member of the United Nations. This dissertation seeks to explain the current wave of RTA notifications by supplementing the economic model of supply and demand with diffusion theory. Application of the supply and demand model is useful in distinguishing between changes in demand and changes insupply of RTAs. This distinction is seldom emphasized in the current literature examining RTAs. Recent applications of diffusion theory in the discipline of international relations offer a unique opportunity to include a dynamic force in the static analysis of the supply and demand model. Empirical analysis assesses the fit of the RTA diffusion pattern by comparing the RTA diffusion pattern to a cumulative standard normal distribution. The analysis indicates that the diffusion pattern of RTAs resembles the diffusion of an innovation through a social system.; The implication of this finding is that the adoption of an RTA as trade policy is not made independently of the decision by other states. Indeed, the analysis suggests interdependency between states. Further empirical analysis explores economic and political variables that may explain the decision to adopt the RTA as trade policy. The empirical analysis is unique in that survival analysis is utilized to assess the variation in duration to adopt an initial RTA since the early 1980s. A central discovery is that regional designation explains the variation in duration to adopt an initial RTA. Multiple regression analysis confirms the results generated using survival analysis and support the assertion that the proliferation of RTAs likely reflects changes in both the demand for RTAs and the supply of RTAs. This dissertation concludes by considering implications for the WTO resulting from the increase in RTA notifications. |
| Keyword | trade agreements |
| Coverage date | after 1980 |
| Language | English |
| Part of collection | University of Southern California dissertations and theses |
| Publisher (of the original version) | University of Southern California |
| Place of publication (of the original version) | Los Angeles, California |
| Publisher (of the digital version) | University of Southern California. Libraries |
| Provenance | Electronically uploaded by the author |
| Type | texts |
| Legacy record ID | usctheses-m1675 |
| Contributing entity | University of Southern California |
| Rights | McClough, David Andrew |
| Repository name | Libraries, University of Southern California |
| Repository address | Los Angeles, California |
| Repository email | cisadmin@lib.usc.edu |
| Filename | etd-McClough-2338 |
| Archival file | uscthesesreloadpub_Volume32/etd-McClough-2338.pdf |
Description
| Title | Page 143 |
| Contributing entity | University of Southern California |
| Repository email | cisadmin@lib.usc.edu |
| Full text | 134 Data Each observation (row) in the data set reflects a state, as identified by membership in the United Nations (UN). Only states in existence at the conclusion of the period of study are included. Membership of the UN for the time period under consideration includes 192 states. Of these UN member states, 159 (83%) form or join an RTA between 1983 and 2006; thirty-three states (17%) do not and represent censored observations. The Cox regression procedure omits observations missing data, which results in a dataset containing 132 observations including six censored cases. Sixty states (31%) are omitted due to missing data. Fifty-four states are missing data for the indicator variable representing trade policy. Sixteen states are missing economic data. Annual state specific economic data for time-dependent covariates is compiled using the World Bank Group’s World Development Indicators. Annual political freedom state specific data is taken from the annual Freedom House global survey of political rights and civil liberties, which identifies states as free, partly free, or not free. Annual time-dependent covariate data is compiled for the years 1982 through 2006. For states gaining independence after December 1, 1982, the date of independence is taken from the US Central Intelligence Agency’s World Fact Book. Measurement of trade openness is frequently represented by the percentage of a nation’s output comprised of imports and exports. This measure is not ideal as it is determined endogeneously. To address this shortcoming, Jeffrey Sachs and |
