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130
index is transformed into a categorical variable using a cluster analysis that identifies
three groupings of language fractionalization scores.
Table 28 provides a case processing summary for the three language
fractionalization categories, the number of events, and the censored cases.
Table 28: Language Fractionalization -- Descriptive Frequencies
Censored
Language Fractionalization Total N N of Events N Percent
Low Range 74 69 5 6.8%
Middle Range 61 56 5 8.2%
High Range 45 43 2 4.4%
Overall 180 168 12 6.7%
The Log Rank, Breslow, and Tarone-Ware test statistics reported in Table 29,
suggest that the survival functions may not differ. Accordingly, the null hypothesis
that the survival functions are equal cannot be rejected. Statistical analysis provides
provides no evidence suggesting that language fractionalization contributes to the
variation in days between the US announcement to pursue bilateral agreements and
RTA participation by states.
Table 29: Language Fractionalization -- Test Statistics
Chi-Square df Sig.
Log Rank (Mantel-Cox) .622 2 .733
Breslow (Generalized Wilcoxon) .306 2 .858
Tarone-Ware .125 2 .940
A final hypothesis predicts that greater ethnic fractionalization leads to more
interstate trade, which may in turn inspire demand for RTAs however; high
fractionalization may also produce domestic political conflict and difficulty enacting
Object Description
| Title | Riding the wave: an interdisciplinary approach to understanding the popularity of RTA notifications to the GATT/WTO |
| Author | McClough, David Andrew |
| Author email | mcclough@usc.edu; dmcclou@bgsu.edu |
| Degree | Doctor of Philosophy |
| Document type | Dissertation |
| Degree program | Political Economy & Public Policy |
| School | College of Letters, Arts and Sciences |
| Date defended/completed | 2008-08-07 |
| Date submitted | 2008 |
| Restricted until | Unrestricted |
| Date published | 2008-10-18 |
| Advisor (committee chair) | Katada, Saori N. |
| Advisor (committee member) |
Nugent, Jeffrey B. Cartier, Carolyn |
| Abstract | The proliferation of Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs) notified to the GATT/WTO since the early 1980s deviates from the long-term trend and reflects participation of nearly every member of the United Nations. This dissertation seeks to explain the current wave of RTA notifications by supplementing the economic model of supply and demand with diffusion theory. Application of the supply and demand model is useful in distinguishing between changes in demand and changes insupply of RTAs. This distinction is seldom emphasized in the current literature examining RTAs. Recent applications of diffusion theory in the discipline of international relations offer a unique opportunity to include a dynamic force in the static analysis of the supply and demand model. Empirical analysis assesses the fit of the RTA diffusion pattern by comparing the RTA diffusion pattern to a cumulative standard normal distribution. The analysis indicates that the diffusion pattern of RTAs resembles the diffusion of an innovation through a social system.; The implication of this finding is that the adoption of an RTA as trade policy is not made independently of the decision by other states. Indeed, the analysis suggests interdependency between states. Further empirical analysis explores economic and political variables that may explain the decision to adopt the RTA as trade policy. The empirical analysis is unique in that survival analysis is utilized to assess the variation in duration to adopt an initial RTA since the early 1980s. A central discovery is that regional designation explains the variation in duration to adopt an initial RTA. Multiple regression analysis confirms the results generated using survival analysis and support the assertion that the proliferation of RTAs likely reflects changes in both the demand for RTAs and the supply of RTAs. This dissertation concludes by considering implications for the WTO resulting from the increase in RTA notifications. |
| Keyword | trade agreements |
| Coverage date | after 1980 |
| Language | English |
| Part of collection | University of Southern California dissertations and theses |
| Publisher (of the original version) | University of Southern California |
| Place of publication (of the original version) | Los Angeles, California |
| Publisher (of the digital version) | University of Southern California. Libraries |
| Provenance | Electronically uploaded by the author |
| Type | texts |
| Legacy record ID | usctheses-m1675 |
| Contributing entity | University of Southern California |
| Rights | McClough, David Andrew |
| Repository name | Libraries, University of Southern California |
| Repository address | Los Angeles, California |
| Repository email | cisadmin@lib.usc.edu |
| Filename | etd-McClough-2338 |
| Archival file | uscthesesreloadpub_Volume32/etd-McClough-2338.pdf |
Description
| Title | Page 139 |
| Contributing entity | University of Southern California |
| Repository email | cisadmin@lib.usc.edu |
| Full text | 130 index is transformed into a categorical variable using a cluster analysis that identifies three groupings of language fractionalization scores. Table 28 provides a case processing summary for the three language fractionalization categories, the number of events, and the censored cases. Table 28: Language Fractionalization -- Descriptive Frequencies Censored Language Fractionalization Total N N of Events N Percent Low Range 74 69 5 6.8% Middle Range 61 56 5 8.2% High Range 45 43 2 4.4% Overall 180 168 12 6.7% The Log Rank, Breslow, and Tarone-Ware test statistics reported in Table 29, suggest that the survival functions may not differ. Accordingly, the null hypothesis that the survival functions are equal cannot be rejected. Statistical analysis provides provides no evidence suggesting that language fractionalization contributes to the variation in days between the US announcement to pursue bilateral agreements and RTA participation by states. Table 29: Language Fractionalization -- Test Statistics Chi-Square df Sig. Log Rank (Mantel-Cox) .622 2 .733 Breslow (Generalized Wilcoxon) .306 2 .858 Tarone-Ware .125 2 .940 A final hypothesis predicts that greater ethnic fractionalization leads to more interstate trade, which may in turn inspire demand for RTAs however; high fractionalization may also produce domestic political conflict and difficulty enacting |
