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126
Table 23: Trade Policy -- Test Statistics
Chi-Square df Sig.
Log Rank (Mantel-Cox) 1.257 1 .262
Breslow (Generalized Wilcoxon) 4.465 1 .035
Tarone-Ware 3.098 1 .078
Statistical analysis provide somewhat ambiguous evidence to suggest that
trade openness contributes to the variation in days between the US announcement to
pursue bilateral agreements and RTA participation by states. This finding might be
explained if initial trade policy is a factor in income such that states initially
subscribing to liberal trade policy are the higher income states while the states
initially unavailable to liberal policies are more likely among the lower incomes
states.
If trade openness does not offer compelling insight into the variation in
duration to participate in an RTA, it may be that previous experience with
preferential arrangements captures the effect of proximate trade partners. Theory is
inconclusive when predicting how previous experience with RTAs might affect the
duration between the US announcement and participation in an RTA. Familiarity
may contribute positively or negatively to preferences for RTAs.
Table 24 provides a case processing summary for the two RTA experience
categories, the number of events, and the censored cases.
Object Description
| Title | Riding the wave: an interdisciplinary approach to understanding the popularity of RTA notifications to the GATT/WTO |
| Author | McClough, David Andrew |
| Author email | mcclough@usc.edu; dmcclou@bgsu.edu |
| Degree | Doctor of Philosophy |
| Document type | Dissertation |
| Degree program | Political Economy & Public Policy |
| School | College of Letters, Arts and Sciences |
| Date defended/completed | 2008-08-07 |
| Date submitted | 2008 |
| Restricted until | Unrestricted |
| Date published | 2008-10-18 |
| Advisor (committee chair) | Katada, Saori N. |
| Advisor (committee member) |
Nugent, Jeffrey B. Cartier, Carolyn |
| Abstract | The proliferation of Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs) notified to the GATT/WTO since the early 1980s deviates from the long-term trend and reflects participation of nearly every member of the United Nations. This dissertation seeks to explain the current wave of RTA notifications by supplementing the economic model of supply and demand with diffusion theory. Application of the supply and demand model is useful in distinguishing between changes in demand and changes insupply of RTAs. This distinction is seldom emphasized in the current literature examining RTAs. Recent applications of diffusion theory in the discipline of international relations offer a unique opportunity to include a dynamic force in the static analysis of the supply and demand model. Empirical analysis assesses the fit of the RTA diffusion pattern by comparing the RTA diffusion pattern to a cumulative standard normal distribution. The analysis indicates that the diffusion pattern of RTAs resembles the diffusion of an innovation through a social system.; The implication of this finding is that the adoption of an RTA as trade policy is not made independently of the decision by other states. Indeed, the analysis suggests interdependency between states. Further empirical analysis explores economic and political variables that may explain the decision to adopt the RTA as trade policy. The empirical analysis is unique in that survival analysis is utilized to assess the variation in duration to adopt an initial RTA since the early 1980s. A central discovery is that regional designation explains the variation in duration to adopt an initial RTA. Multiple regression analysis confirms the results generated using survival analysis and support the assertion that the proliferation of RTAs likely reflects changes in both the demand for RTAs and the supply of RTAs. This dissertation concludes by considering implications for the WTO resulting from the increase in RTA notifications. |
| Keyword | trade agreements |
| Coverage date | after 1980 |
| Language | English |
| Part of collection | University of Southern California dissertations and theses |
| Publisher (of the original version) | University of Southern California |
| Place of publication (of the original version) | Los Angeles, California |
| Publisher (of the digital version) | University of Southern California. Libraries |
| Provenance | Electronically uploaded by the author |
| Type | texts |
| Legacy record ID | usctheses-m1675 |
| Contributing entity | University of Southern California |
| Rights | McClough, David Andrew |
| Repository name | Libraries, University of Southern California |
| Repository address | Los Angeles, California |
| Repository email | cisadmin@lib.usc.edu |
| Filename | etd-McClough-2338 |
| Archival file | uscthesesreloadpub_Volume32/etd-McClough-2338.pdf |
Description
| Title | Page 135 |
| Contributing entity | University of Southern California |
| Repository email | cisadmin@lib.usc.edu |
| Full text | 126 Table 23: Trade Policy -- Test Statistics Chi-Square df Sig. Log Rank (Mantel-Cox) 1.257 1 .262 Breslow (Generalized Wilcoxon) 4.465 1 .035 Tarone-Ware 3.098 1 .078 Statistical analysis provide somewhat ambiguous evidence to suggest that trade openness contributes to the variation in days between the US announcement to pursue bilateral agreements and RTA participation by states. This finding might be explained if initial trade policy is a factor in income such that states initially subscribing to liberal trade policy are the higher income states while the states initially unavailable to liberal policies are more likely among the lower incomes states. If trade openness does not offer compelling insight into the variation in duration to participate in an RTA, it may be that previous experience with preferential arrangements captures the effect of proximate trade partners. Theory is inconclusive when predicting how previous experience with RTAs might affect the duration between the US announcement and participation in an RTA. Familiarity may contribute positively or negatively to preferences for RTAs. Table 24 provides a case processing summary for the two RTA experience categories, the number of events, and the censored cases. |
