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124
Table 20: Income -- Summary of Test Statistics
Chi-Square df Sig.
Log Rank (Mantel-Cox) 16.042 4 .003
Breslow (Generalized Wilcoxon) 22.876 4 .000
Tarone-Ware 19.914 4 .001
Table 21 summarizes the pair-wise comparisons and reveals that seven of ten
(70%) comparisons are statistically significant at the .01-, .05- and .10-levels.
therefore, the majority of the survival functions are likely not equal. Nonetheless,
there are some pairings for which the null hypothesis cannot be rejected.
Table 21: Income -- Pairwise Comparisons
High: non-OECD High: OECD Upper Middle Lower Middle
High: OECD
5.844
(.016)**
Upper Middle
3.693
(.055)***
1.358
(.244)
Lower Middle
.186
(.666)
9.263
(.002)*
2.980
(.084)***
0)
Low
2.911
(.088)***
6.066
(.014)**
.122
(.727)
2.778
(.096)***
* statistically significant at .01-level .
** statistically significant at .05-level
*** statistically significant at .10-level
These findings suggest that the level of income may explain variation in
timing to adopt the RTA innovation. With geography and income highly correlated
it is worth considering the implication of this finding. Consider that there can be no
variation in geographic location among states within a designated region, however,
income designations may indeed vary between states within a designated region.
Object Description
| Title | Riding the wave: an interdisciplinary approach to understanding the popularity of RTA notifications to the GATT/WTO |
| Author | McClough, David Andrew |
| Author email | mcclough@usc.edu; dmcclou@bgsu.edu |
| Degree | Doctor of Philosophy |
| Document type | Dissertation |
| Degree program | Political Economy & Public Policy |
| School | College of Letters, Arts and Sciences |
| Date defended/completed | 2008-08-07 |
| Date submitted | 2008 |
| Restricted until | Unrestricted |
| Date published | 2008-10-18 |
| Advisor (committee chair) | Katada, Saori N. |
| Advisor (committee member) |
Nugent, Jeffrey B. Cartier, Carolyn |
| Abstract | The proliferation of Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs) notified to the GATT/WTO since the early 1980s deviates from the long-term trend and reflects participation of nearly every member of the United Nations. This dissertation seeks to explain the current wave of RTA notifications by supplementing the economic model of supply and demand with diffusion theory. Application of the supply and demand model is useful in distinguishing between changes in demand and changes insupply of RTAs. This distinction is seldom emphasized in the current literature examining RTAs. Recent applications of diffusion theory in the discipline of international relations offer a unique opportunity to include a dynamic force in the static analysis of the supply and demand model. Empirical analysis assesses the fit of the RTA diffusion pattern by comparing the RTA diffusion pattern to a cumulative standard normal distribution. The analysis indicates that the diffusion pattern of RTAs resembles the diffusion of an innovation through a social system.; The implication of this finding is that the adoption of an RTA as trade policy is not made independently of the decision by other states. Indeed, the analysis suggests interdependency between states. Further empirical analysis explores economic and political variables that may explain the decision to adopt the RTA as trade policy. The empirical analysis is unique in that survival analysis is utilized to assess the variation in duration to adopt an initial RTA since the early 1980s. A central discovery is that regional designation explains the variation in duration to adopt an initial RTA. Multiple regression analysis confirms the results generated using survival analysis and support the assertion that the proliferation of RTAs likely reflects changes in both the demand for RTAs and the supply of RTAs. This dissertation concludes by considering implications for the WTO resulting from the increase in RTA notifications. |
| Keyword | trade agreements |
| Coverage date | after 1980 |
| Language | English |
| Part of collection | University of Southern California dissertations and theses |
| Publisher (of the original version) | University of Southern California |
| Place of publication (of the original version) | Los Angeles, California |
| Publisher (of the digital version) | University of Southern California. Libraries |
| Provenance | Electronically uploaded by the author |
| Type | texts |
| Legacy record ID | usctheses-m1675 |
| Contributing entity | University of Southern California |
| Rights | McClough, David Andrew |
| Repository name | Libraries, University of Southern California |
| Repository address | Los Angeles, California |
| Repository email | cisadmin@lib.usc.edu |
| Filename | etd-McClough-2338 |
| Archival file | uscthesesreloadpub_Volume32/etd-McClough-2338.pdf |
Description
| Title | Page 133 |
| Contributing entity | University of Southern California |
| Repository email | cisadmin@lib.usc.edu |
| Full text | 124 Table 20: Income -- Summary of Test Statistics Chi-Square df Sig. Log Rank (Mantel-Cox) 16.042 4 .003 Breslow (Generalized Wilcoxon) 22.876 4 .000 Tarone-Ware 19.914 4 .001 Table 21 summarizes the pair-wise comparisons and reveals that seven of ten (70%) comparisons are statistically significant at the .01-, .05- and .10-levels. therefore, the majority of the survival functions are likely not equal. Nonetheless, there are some pairings for which the null hypothesis cannot be rejected. Table 21: Income -- Pairwise Comparisons High: non-OECD High: OECD Upper Middle Lower Middle High: OECD 5.844 (.016)** Upper Middle 3.693 (.055)*** 1.358 (.244) Lower Middle .186 (.666) 9.263 (.002)* 2.980 (.084)*** 0) Low 2.911 (.088)*** 6.066 (.014)** .122 (.727) 2.778 (.096)*** * statistically significant at .01-level . ** statistically significant at .05-level *** statistically significant at .10-level These findings suggest that the level of income may explain variation in timing to adopt the RTA innovation. With geography and income highly correlated it is worth considering the implication of this finding. Consider that there can be no variation in geographic location among states within a designated region, however, income designations may indeed vary between states within a designated region. |
