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116
states of the South Pacific Forum through the South Pacific Regional Trade and
Economic Agreement (SPARTECA).37 In 1982, Australia and New Zealand
negotiated a free trade agreement that entered into force January 1, 1983. It would
appear that there was considerable emphasis on regional integration schemes in this
region shortly before the US announcement, which raises the question, was the US
responding in any way to this activity? No historical evidence or theoretical support
suggests that the US was responding to this elevated activity. At the time, the
economies involved in these two RTAs were too remote and too small to be
significant to US interests. Australia and New Zealand would each eventually
negotiate separate FTAs with Singapore during the study period. In addition, four
members of the South Pacific Forum (Fiji, Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands, and
Vanuatu) would complete a mutual reduction/elimination of tariffs agreement under
the Enabling Clause in 1993. The remaining states of the South Pacific Forum
would fail to notify the GATT/WTO of any additional RTAs. These states represent
censored observations because opportunity existed for greater participation in the
RTA phenomenon but was not pursued. The subsequent RTA activity of Fiji, Papua
New Guinea, Solomon Islands, and Vanuatu reveals that the relative isolation of
these states does not need to preclude participation in RTAs. Opportunity existed for
these states to deepen integration with each other, Australia, New Zealand, or with
an East Asian state by forming an FTA or customs union. Rather than participate in
the recent wave of RTAs, these states of the South Pacific Forum remained inactive
37 The South Pacific Forum members include: Kiribati, Marshall Islands, Micronesia, Nauru, Palau,
Samoa, Tonga, and Tuvalu.
Object Description
| Title | Riding the wave: an interdisciplinary approach to understanding the popularity of RTA notifications to the GATT/WTO |
| Author | McClough, David Andrew |
| Author email | mcclough@usc.edu; dmcclou@bgsu.edu |
| Degree | Doctor of Philosophy |
| Document type | Dissertation |
| Degree program | Political Economy & Public Policy |
| School | College of Letters, Arts and Sciences |
| Date defended/completed | 2008-08-07 |
| Date submitted | 2008 |
| Restricted until | Unrestricted |
| Date published | 2008-10-18 |
| Advisor (committee chair) | Katada, Saori N. |
| Advisor (committee member) |
Nugent, Jeffrey B. Cartier, Carolyn |
| Abstract | The proliferation of Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs) notified to the GATT/WTO since the early 1980s deviates from the long-term trend and reflects participation of nearly every member of the United Nations. This dissertation seeks to explain the current wave of RTA notifications by supplementing the economic model of supply and demand with diffusion theory. Application of the supply and demand model is useful in distinguishing between changes in demand and changes insupply of RTAs. This distinction is seldom emphasized in the current literature examining RTAs. Recent applications of diffusion theory in the discipline of international relations offer a unique opportunity to include a dynamic force in the static analysis of the supply and demand model. Empirical analysis assesses the fit of the RTA diffusion pattern by comparing the RTA diffusion pattern to a cumulative standard normal distribution. The analysis indicates that the diffusion pattern of RTAs resembles the diffusion of an innovation through a social system.; The implication of this finding is that the adoption of an RTA as trade policy is not made independently of the decision by other states. Indeed, the analysis suggests interdependency between states. Further empirical analysis explores economic and political variables that may explain the decision to adopt the RTA as trade policy. The empirical analysis is unique in that survival analysis is utilized to assess the variation in duration to adopt an initial RTA since the early 1980s. A central discovery is that regional designation explains the variation in duration to adopt an initial RTA. Multiple regression analysis confirms the results generated using survival analysis and support the assertion that the proliferation of RTAs likely reflects changes in both the demand for RTAs and the supply of RTAs. This dissertation concludes by considering implications for the WTO resulting from the increase in RTA notifications. |
| Keyword | trade agreements |
| Coverage date | after 1980 |
| Language | English |
| Part of collection | University of Southern California dissertations and theses |
| Publisher (of the original version) | University of Southern California |
| Place of publication (of the original version) | Los Angeles, California |
| Publisher (of the digital version) | University of Southern California. Libraries |
| Provenance | Electronically uploaded by the author |
| Type | texts |
| Legacy record ID | usctheses-m1675 |
| Contributing entity | University of Southern California |
| Rights | McClough, David Andrew |
| Repository name | Libraries, University of Southern California |
| Repository address | Los Angeles, California |
| Repository email | cisadmin@lib.usc.edu |
| Filename | etd-McClough-2338 |
| Archival file | uscthesesreloadpub_Volume32/etd-McClough-2338.pdf |
Description
| Title | Page 125 |
| Contributing entity | University of Southern California |
| Repository email | cisadmin@lib.usc.edu |
| Full text | 116 states of the South Pacific Forum through the South Pacific Regional Trade and Economic Agreement (SPARTECA).37 In 1982, Australia and New Zealand negotiated a free trade agreement that entered into force January 1, 1983. It would appear that there was considerable emphasis on regional integration schemes in this region shortly before the US announcement, which raises the question, was the US responding in any way to this activity? No historical evidence or theoretical support suggests that the US was responding to this elevated activity. At the time, the economies involved in these two RTAs were too remote and too small to be significant to US interests. Australia and New Zealand would each eventually negotiate separate FTAs with Singapore during the study period. In addition, four members of the South Pacific Forum (Fiji, Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands, and Vanuatu) would complete a mutual reduction/elimination of tariffs agreement under the Enabling Clause in 1993. The remaining states of the South Pacific Forum would fail to notify the GATT/WTO of any additional RTAs. These states represent censored observations because opportunity existed for greater participation in the RTA phenomenon but was not pursued. The subsequent RTA activity of Fiji, Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands, and Vanuatu reveals that the relative isolation of these states does not need to preclude participation in RTAs. Opportunity existed for these states to deepen integration with each other, Australia, New Zealand, or with an East Asian state by forming an FTA or customs union. Rather than participate in the recent wave of RTAs, these states of the South Pacific Forum remained inactive 37 The South Pacific Forum members include: Kiribati, Marshall Islands, Micronesia, Nauru, Palau, Samoa, Tonga, and Tuvalu. |
