Page 123 |
Save page Remove page | Previous | 123 of 229 | Next |
|
small (250x250 max)
medium (500x500 max)
Large (1000x1000 max)
Extra Large
large ( > 500x500)
Full Resolution
All (PDF)
|
This page
All
|
114
analysis. Omission of observations when examining the time to an event is quite
costly as all observations offer information regarding the variation in timing. The
omission of censored observations necessarily removes valuable information from
the analysis and biases estimates. Table 13 summarizes the censored observations
that have not notified the GATT/WTO of participation in an RTA since December 1,
1982 through December 31, 2006.35
Table 13: Censored Observations
Country Days
Kiribati 8796
Marshall Islands 8796
Micronesia 8796
Monaco 8796
Mongolia 8796
Montenegro 211
Nauru 8796
Palau 8796
Samoa 8796
San Marino 8796
Sao Tome Principe 8796
Timor Este 1686
Tonga 8796
Tuvalu 8796
Vatican City 8796
Table 13 shows that 13 of the 15 censored observations reflect countries that
have survived the entire study period of 8796 days without participating in an RTA.
35 The entry into force date of the Australia and New Zealand Free Trade Agreement (ANZCERTA) is
January 1, 1983. The negotiations of this RTA were completed prior to the US announcement.
Because there is no other RTA notifications until the US and Israel FTA in 1985, it seems reasonable
to ignore ANZCERTA and to focus on subsequent RTA activity involving Australia and New
Zealand.
Object Description
| Title | Riding the wave: an interdisciplinary approach to understanding the popularity of RTA notifications to the GATT/WTO |
| Author | McClough, David Andrew |
| Author email | mcclough@usc.edu; dmcclou@bgsu.edu |
| Degree | Doctor of Philosophy |
| Document type | Dissertation |
| Degree program | Political Economy & Public Policy |
| School | College of Letters, Arts and Sciences |
| Date defended/completed | 2008-08-07 |
| Date submitted | 2008 |
| Restricted until | Unrestricted |
| Date published | 2008-10-18 |
| Advisor (committee chair) | Katada, Saori N. |
| Advisor (committee member) |
Nugent, Jeffrey B. Cartier, Carolyn |
| Abstract | The proliferation of Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs) notified to the GATT/WTO since the early 1980s deviates from the long-term trend and reflects participation of nearly every member of the United Nations. This dissertation seeks to explain the current wave of RTA notifications by supplementing the economic model of supply and demand with diffusion theory. Application of the supply and demand model is useful in distinguishing between changes in demand and changes insupply of RTAs. This distinction is seldom emphasized in the current literature examining RTAs. Recent applications of diffusion theory in the discipline of international relations offer a unique opportunity to include a dynamic force in the static analysis of the supply and demand model. Empirical analysis assesses the fit of the RTA diffusion pattern by comparing the RTA diffusion pattern to a cumulative standard normal distribution. The analysis indicates that the diffusion pattern of RTAs resembles the diffusion of an innovation through a social system.; The implication of this finding is that the adoption of an RTA as trade policy is not made independently of the decision by other states. Indeed, the analysis suggests interdependency between states. Further empirical analysis explores economic and political variables that may explain the decision to adopt the RTA as trade policy. The empirical analysis is unique in that survival analysis is utilized to assess the variation in duration to adopt an initial RTA since the early 1980s. A central discovery is that regional designation explains the variation in duration to adopt an initial RTA. Multiple regression analysis confirms the results generated using survival analysis and support the assertion that the proliferation of RTAs likely reflects changes in both the demand for RTAs and the supply of RTAs. This dissertation concludes by considering implications for the WTO resulting from the increase in RTA notifications. |
| Keyword | trade agreements |
| Coverage date | after 1980 |
| Language | English |
| Part of collection | University of Southern California dissertations and theses |
| Publisher (of the original version) | University of Southern California |
| Place of publication (of the original version) | Los Angeles, California |
| Publisher (of the digital version) | University of Southern California. Libraries |
| Provenance | Electronically uploaded by the author |
| Type | texts |
| Legacy record ID | usctheses-m1675 |
| Contributing entity | University of Southern California |
| Rights | McClough, David Andrew |
| Repository name | Libraries, University of Southern California |
| Repository address | Los Angeles, California |
| Repository email | cisadmin@lib.usc.edu |
| Filename | etd-McClough-2338 |
| Archival file | uscthesesreloadpub_Volume32/etd-McClough-2338.pdf |
Description
| Title | Page 123 |
| Contributing entity | University of Southern California |
| Repository email | cisadmin@lib.usc.edu |
| Full text | 114 analysis. Omission of observations when examining the time to an event is quite costly as all observations offer information regarding the variation in timing. The omission of censored observations necessarily removes valuable information from the analysis and biases estimates. Table 13 summarizes the censored observations that have not notified the GATT/WTO of participation in an RTA since December 1, 1982 through December 31, 2006.35 Table 13: Censored Observations Country Days Kiribati 8796 Marshall Islands 8796 Micronesia 8796 Monaco 8796 Mongolia 8796 Montenegro 211 Nauru 8796 Palau 8796 Samoa 8796 San Marino 8796 Sao Tome Principe 8796 Timor Este 1686 Tonga 8796 Tuvalu 8796 Vatican City 8796 Table 13 shows that 13 of the 15 censored observations reflect countries that have survived the entire study period of 8796 days without participating in an RTA. 35 The entry into force date of the Australia and New Zealand Free Trade Agreement (ANZCERTA) is January 1, 1983. The negotiations of this RTA were completed prior to the US announcement. Because there is no other RTA notifications until the US and Israel FTA in 1985, it seems reasonable to ignore ANZCERTA and to focus on subsequent RTA activity involving Australia and New Zealand. |
