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93
the growth in RTAs since 1992 was a European phenomenon, the next step would be
to extract the effect of the disintegration of the Soviet Union and Yugoslavia.
However, a European effect is not identified so the collapses of the Soviet Union and
Yugoslavia are not likely the causal events, for if they were, the overall larger effect
of Europe would test significantly.
To summarize, three essentially geopolitical hypotheses explaining the
increase in RTA notifications to the GATT/WTO since 1992 are examined
empirically. Evidence suggests that none of the hypotheses is an adequate
explanation for the observed international political economy phenomenon.
Congestion Costs: An Economic Explanation for the Increase in RTAs
Since its inception in 1947, the GATT/WTO membership has grown from the
original 23 signatories to 151 members.24 As the membership grows the duration of
each multilateral round of negotiations continues to increase. Table 12 summarizes
the number of participants, the principal issues, and the duration of each of the
multilateral trade negotiation rounds conducted under the auspices of the
GATT/WTO.25
24 As of July 27, 2007, the WTO reports 151 members and 30 observers required to initiate accession
negotiations within five years. Only The Holy See is exempted from the accession negotiation
requirement. Three members are not independent states: Chinese Taipei, Hong Kong, Macau, China.
WTO website. Accessed September 21, 2007,
http://www.wto.org/english/thewto_e/whatis_e/tif_e/org6_e.htm.
25 Source: Neary, J. Peter (2004), “Europe on the road to Doha: towards a new global trade round?,”
Working Paper. The author cites the WTO website (www.wto.org) as source of data.
Object Description
| Title | Riding the wave: an interdisciplinary approach to understanding the popularity of RTA notifications to the GATT/WTO |
| Author | McClough, David Andrew |
| Author email | mcclough@usc.edu; dmcclou@bgsu.edu |
| Degree | Doctor of Philosophy |
| Document type | Dissertation |
| Degree program | Political Economy & Public Policy |
| School | College of Letters, Arts and Sciences |
| Date defended/completed | 2008-08-07 |
| Date submitted | 2008 |
| Restricted until | Unrestricted |
| Date published | 2008-10-18 |
| Advisor (committee chair) | Katada, Saori N. |
| Advisor (committee member) |
Nugent, Jeffrey B. Cartier, Carolyn |
| Abstract | The proliferation of Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs) notified to the GATT/WTO since the early 1980s deviates from the long-term trend and reflects participation of nearly every member of the United Nations. This dissertation seeks to explain the current wave of RTA notifications by supplementing the economic model of supply and demand with diffusion theory. Application of the supply and demand model is useful in distinguishing between changes in demand and changes insupply of RTAs. This distinction is seldom emphasized in the current literature examining RTAs. Recent applications of diffusion theory in the discipline of international relations offer a unique opportunity to include a dynamic force in the static analysis of the supply and demand model. Empirical analysis assesses the fit of the RTA diffusion pattern by comparing the RTA diffusion pattern to a cumulative standard normal distribution. The analysis indicates that the diffusion pattern of RTAs resembles the diffusion of an innovation through a social system.; The implication of this finding is that the adoption of an RTA as trade policy is not made independently of the decision by other states. Indeed, the analysis suggests interdependency between states. Further empirical analysis explores economic and political variables that may explain the decision to adopt the RTA as trade policy. The empirical analysis is unique in that survival analysis is utilized to assess the variation in duration to adopt an initial RTA since the early 1980s. A central discovery is that regional designation explains the variation in duration to adopt an initial RTA. Multiple regression analysis confirms the results generated using survival analysis and support the assertion that the proliferation of RTAs likely reflects changes in both the demand for RTAs and the supply of RTAs. This dissertation concludes by considering implications for the WTO resulting from the increase in RTA notifications. |
| Keyword | trade agreements |
| Coverage date | after 1980 |
| Language | English |
| Part of collection | University of Southern California dissertations and theses |
| Publisher (of the original version) | University of Southern California |
| Place of publication (of the original version) | Los Angeles, California |
| Publisher (of the digital version) | University of Southern California. Libraries |
| Provenance | Electronically uploaded by the author |
| Type | texts |
| Legacy record ID | usctheses-m1675 |
| Contributing entity | University of Southern California |
| Rights | McClough, David Andrew |
| Repository name | Libraries, University of Southern California |
| Repository address | Los Angeles, California |
| Repository email | cisadmin@lib.usc.edu |
| Filename | etd-McClough-2338 |
| Archival file | uscthesesreloadpub_Volume32/etd-McClough-2338.pdf |
Description
| Title | Page 102 |
| Contributing entity | University of Southern California |
| Repository email | cisadmin@lib.usc.edu |
| Full text | 93 the growth in RTAs since 1992 was a European phenomenon, the next step would be to extract the effect of the disintegration of the Soviet Union and Yugoslavia. However, a European effect is not identified so the collapses of the Soviet Union and Yugoslavia are not likely the causal events, for if they were, the overall larger effect of Europe would test significantly. To summarize, three essentially geopolitical hypotheses explaining the increase in RTA notifications to the GATT/WTO since 1992 are examined empirically. Evidence suggests that none of the hypotheses is an adequate explanation for the observed international political economy phenomenon. Congestion Costs: An Economic Explanation for the Increase in RTAs Since its inception in 1947, the GATT/WTO membership has grown from the original 23 signatories to 151 members.24 As the membership grows the duration of each multilateral round of negotiations continues to increase. Table 12 summarizes the number of participants, the principal issues, and the duration of each of the multilateral trade negotiation rounds conducted under the auspices of the GATT/WTO.25 24 As of July 27, 2007, the WTO reports 151 members and 30 observers required to initiate accession negotiations within five years. Only The Holy See is exempted from the accession negotiation requirement. Three members are not independent states: Chinese Taipei, Hong Kong, Macau, China. WTO website. Accessed September 21, 2007, http://www.wto.org/english/thewto_e/whatis_e/tif_e/org6_e.htm. 25 Source: Neary, J. Peter (2004), “Europe on the road to Doha: towards a new global trade round?,” Working Paper. The author cites the WTO website (www.wto.org) as source of data. |
