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92
The hypotheses to be tested are summarized:
H0: observed RTAs before 1992 = expected RTAs after 1992
H1: observed RTAs before 1992 ≠ expected RTAs after 1992
A Chi-square statistic informs whether the number of RTAs after 1992 is
statistically different than would be expected given the number of RTAs notified
prior to 1992. Results are presented in Table 11. The Pearson Chi-Square value of
2.011 (p = 0.156) is not statistically significant at any conventional levels of
significance. As such, the null hypothesis, H0, cannot be rejected in favor of the
alternative hypothesis, H1.
Table 11: Chi-square Results -- Europe
Value df Asymp. Sig
(2-sided)
Exact Sig.
(2-sided)
Exact Sig.
(1-sided)
Pearson Chi-Square 2.011 1 .156
Continuity Correction 1.664 1 .197
Likelihood Ratio 2.058 1 .151
Fisher’s Exact Test .162 .098
Linear-by-Linear Association 2.005 1 .157
N of valid cases 373
These results offer empirical evidence that the increase RTAs is not an
isolated European phenomenon despite the central role of Western Europe as the
birthplace of the RTA. Moreover, these results challenge the proposed hypothesis
that the collapse of the Soviet Union and Yugoslavia are the causal factors of the
increase in RTAs since 1992. If the statistical evidence supported the assertion that
Object Description
| Title | Riding the wave: an interdisciplinary approach to understanding the popularity of RTA notifications to the GATT/WTO |
| Author | McClough, David Andrew |
| Author email | mcclough@usc.edu; dmcclou@bgsu.edu |
| Degree | Doctor of Philosophy |
| Document type | Dissertation |
| Degree program | Political Economy & Public Policy |
| School | College of Letters, Arts and Sciences |
| Date defended/completed | 2008-08-07 |
| Date submitted | 2008 |
| Restricted until | Unrestricted |
| Date published | 2008-10-18 |
| Advisor (committee chair) | Katada, Saori N. |
| Advisor (committee member) |
Nugent, Jeffrey B. Cartier, Carolyn |
| Abstract | The proliferation of Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs) notified to the GATT/WTO since the early 1980s deviates from the long-term trend and reflects participation of nearly every member of the United Nations. This dissertation seeks to explain the current wave of RTA notifications by supplementing the economic model of supply and demand with diffusion theory. Application of the supply and demand model is useful in distinguishing between changes in demand and changes insupply of RTAs. This distinction is seldom emphasized in the current literature examining RTAs. Recent applications of diffusion theory in the discipline of international relations offer a unique opportunity to include a dynamic force in the static analysis of the supply and demand model. Empirical analysis assesses the fit of the RTA diffusion pattern by comparing the RTA diffusion pattern to a cumulative standard normal distribution. The analysis indicates that the diffusion pattern of RTAs resembles the diffusion of an innovation through a social system.; The implication of this finding is that the adoption of an RTA as trade policy is not made independently of the decision by other states. Indeed, the analysis suggests interdependency between states. Further empirical analysis explores economic and political variables that may explain the decision to adopt the RTA as trade policy. The empirical analysis is unique in that survival analysis is utilized to assess the variation in duration to adopt an initial RTA since the early 1980s. A central discovery is that regional designation explains the variation in duration to adopt an initial RTA. Multiple regression analysis confirms the results generated using survival analysis and support the assertion that the proliferation of RTAs likely reflects changes in both the demand for RTAs and the supply of RTAs. This dissertation concludes by considering implications for the WTO resulting from the increase in RTA notifications. |
| Keyword | trade agreements |
| Coverage date | after 1980 |
| Language | English |
| Part of collection | University of Southern California dissertations and theses |
| Publisher (of the original version) | University of Southern California |
| Place of publication (of the original version) | Los Angeles, California |
| Publisher (of the digital version) | University of Southern California. Libraries |
| Provenance | Electronically uploaded by the author |
| Type | texts |
| Legacy record ID | usctheses-m1675 |
| Contributing entity | University of Southern California |
| Rights | McClough, David Andrew |
| Repository name | Libraries, University of Southern California |
| Repository address | Los Angeles, California |
| Repository email | cisadmin@lib.usc.edu |
| Filename | etd-McClough-2338 |
| Archival file | uscthesesreloadpub_Volume32/etd-McClough-2338.pdf |
Description
| Title | Page 101 |
| Contributing entity | University of Southern California |
| Repository email | cisadmin@lib.usc.edu |
| Full text | 92 The hypotheses to be tested are summarized: H0: observed RTAs before 1992 = expected RTAs after 1992 H1: observed RTAs before 1992 ≠ expected RTAs after 1992 A Chi-square statistic informs whether the number of RTAs after 1992 is statistically different than would be expected given the number of RTAs notified prior to 1992. Results are presented in Table 11. The Pearson Chi-Square value of 2.011 (p = 0.156) is not statistically significant at any conventional levels of significance. As such, the null hypothesis, H0, cannot be rejected in favor of the alternative hypothesis, H1. Table 11: Chi-square Results -- Europe Value df Asymp. Sig (2-sided) Exact Sig. (2-sided) Exact Sig. (1-sided) Pearson Chi-Square 2.011 1 .156 Continuity Correction 1.664 1 .197 Likelihood Ratio 2.058 1 .151 Fisher’s Exact Test .162 .098 Linear-by-Linear Association 2.005 1 .157 N of valid cases 373 These results offer empirical evidence that the increase RTAs is not an isolated European phenomenon despite the central role of Western Europe as the birthplace of the RTA. Moreover, these results challenge the proposed hypothesis that the collapse of the Soviet Union and Yugoslavia are the causal factors of the increase in RTAs since 1992. If the statistical evidence supported the assertion that |
