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88
Assistance (Comecon).19 In addition, two years are noted during which key events
occurred: the announcement in November 1982 by the U.S. to consider bilateral
agreements and the collapse of the Soviet Union in December 1991.20
Table 8: Frequency of Geopolitical Events
No. of RTAs % of all RTAs (N=373)
European State 245 65.7
Former Soviet State 69 18.5
Former Yugoslavia State 30 8
Former Comecon State 88 23.6
Since US Announcement 295 79.1
Since Collapse of USSR 284 76.1
Reversal of US Commitment to Multilateralism
The announcement by the U.S. Trade Representative William Brock to
pursue bilateral agreements following the failure of the 1982 ministerial meetings to
initiate a new multilateral round of negotiations under the GATT suggests a possible
explanation for the increase in RTAs. The increase in RTAs may reflect US
formation of RTAs with so-called partners willing to dance. Table 9 lists the RTAs
notified to the GATT/WTO through 2006 involving the US.
19 Countries include: Soviet Union, Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia, Cuba, East Germany, Mongolia,
Poland, Romania, and Vietnam. Dates of entry and departure are ignored.
20 To simplify the analysis, counts of the number of RTAs following each event are compiled from
January 1st of the following year. Accordingly the number of RTAs following the US announcement
is compiled beginning January 1, 1983; and the number of RTAs following the disintegration of the
Soviet Union and Yugoslavia is compiled beginning January 1, 1992.
Object Description
| Title | Riding the wave: an interdisciplinary approach to understanding the popularity of RTA notifications to the GATT/WTO |
| Author | McClough, David Andrew |
| Author email | mcclough@usc.edu; dmcclou@bgsu.edu |
| Degree | Doctor of Philosophy |
| Document type | Dissertation |
| Degree program | Political Economy & Public Policy |
| School | College of Letters, Arts and Sciences |
| Date defended/completed | 2008-08-07 |
| Date submitted | 2008 |
| Restricted until | Unrestricted |
| Date published | 2008-10-18 |
| Advisor (committee chair) | Katada, Saori N. |
| Advisor (committee member) |
Nugent, Jeffrey B. Cartier, Carolyn |
| Abstract | The proliferation of Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs) notified to the GATT/WTO since the early 1980s deviates from the long-term trend and reflects participation of nearly every member of the United Nations. This dissertation seeks to explain the current wave of RTA notifications by supplementing the economic model of supply and demand with diffusion theory. Application of the supply and demand model is useful in distinguishing between changes in demand and changes insupply of RTAs. This distinction is seldom emphasized in the current literature examining RTAs. Recent applications of diffusion theory in the discipline of international relations offer a unique opportunity to include a dynamic force in the static analysis of the supply and demand model. Empirical analysis assesses the fit of the RTA diffusion pattern by comparing the RTA diffusion pattern to a cumulative standard normal distribution. The analysis indicates that the diffusion pattern of RTAs resembles the diffusion of an innovation through a social system.; The implication of this finding is that the adoption of an RTA as trade policy is not made independently of the decision by other states. Indeed, the analysis suggests interdependency between states. Further empirical analysis explores economic and political variables that may explain the decision to adopt the RTA as trade policy. The empirical analysis is unique in that survival analysis is utilized to assess the variation in duration to adopt an initial RTA since the early 1980s. A central discovery is that regional designation explains the variation in duration to adopt an initial RTA. Multiple regression analysis confirms the results generated using survival analysis and support the assertion that the proliferation of RTAs likely reflects changes in both the demand for RTAs and the supply of RTAs. This dissertation concludes by considering implications for the WTO resulting from the increase in RTA notifications. |
| Keyword | trade agreements |
| Coverage date | after 1980 |
| Language | English |
| Part of collection | University of Southern California dissertations and theses |
| Publisher (of the original version) | University of Southern California |
| Place of publication (of the original version) | Los Angeles, California |
| Publisher (of the digital version) | University of Southern California. Libraries |
| Provenance | Electronically uploaded by the author |
| Type | texts |
| Legacy record ID | usctheses-m1675 |
| Contributing entity | University of Southern California |
| Rights | McClough, David Andrew |
| Repository name | Libraries, University of Southern California |
| Repository address | Los Angeles, California |
| Repository email | cisadmin@lib.usc.edu |
| Filename | etd-McClough-2338 |
| Archival file | uscthesesreloadpub_Volume32/etd-McClough-2338.pdf |
Description
| Title | Page 97 |
| Contributing entity | University of Southern California |
| Repository email | cisadmin@lib.usc.edu |
| Full text | 88 Assistance (Comecon).19 In addition, two years are noted during which key events occurred: the announcement in November 1982 by the U.S. to consider bilateral agreements and the collapse of the Soviet Union in December 1991.20 Table 8: Frequency of Geopolitical Events No. of RTAs % of all RTAs (N=373) European State 245 65.7 Former Soviet State 69 18.5 Former Yugoslavia State 30 8 Former Comecon State 88 23.6 Since US Announcement 295 79.1 Since Collapse of USSR 284 76.1 Reversal of US Commitment to Multilateralism The announcement by the U.S. Trade Representative William Brock to pursue bilateral agreements following the failure of the 1982 ministerial meetings to initiate a new multilateral round of negotiations under the GATT suggests a possible explanation for the increase in RTAs. The increase in RTAs may reflect US formation of RTAs with so-called partners willing to dance. Table 9 lists the RTAs notified to the GATT/WTO through 2006 involving the US. 19 Countries include: Soviet Union, Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia, Cuba, East Germany, Mongolia, Poland, Romania, and Vietnam. Dates of entry and departure are ignored. 20 To simplify the analysis, counts of the number of RTAs following each event are compiled from January 1st of the following year. Accordingly the number of RTAs following the US announcement is compiled beginning January 1, 1983; and the number of RTAs following the disintegration of the Soviet Union and Yugoslavia is compiled beginning January 1, 1992. |
