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86
CHAPTER 4
EXAMINATION OF EXPLANATIONS FOR THE INCREASE IN RTAS
This chapter examines possible explanations for the increase in the number of
RTAs notified to the GATT/WTO. The proposed hypotheses examined in this
chapter are reflective of or inspired by the literature reviewed in the previous chapter
and historical facts.
Scholars hypothesize that the easing of the US commitment to
multilateralism is a central factor in the proliferation of RTAs. This hypothesis is
examined empirically only to find that US participation in RTAs does indeed
increase but that the increase is not statistically different from the overall increase in
RTA notifications. This finding challenges the centrality of the US policy reversal
as the driving force for the increase in RTAs. If the US policy reversal is not likely
the source of proliferation, perhaps the political disintegrations of the Soviet Union,
Yugoslavia, and Czechoslovakia, which correspond so closely with the timing of the
increased popularity of RTAs, are the culprits. Geopolitical objectives inspired RTA
formation in Europe and justified expansion and deepening since WWII. Indeed,
European intentions to create a customs union inspired significant theoretical
contributions to the economics literature. The timing of the political collapses of the
Soviet Union and Yugoslavia and the political divorce of the Czech and Slovak
Republics correspond very well with the increase in RTA activity. In this chapter,
we examine the hypotheses that consider the European proclivity toward RTAs as a
source of the proliferation and the impact of the political disintegration of the Soviet
Object Description
| Title | Riding the wave: an interdisciplinary approach to understanding the popularity of RTA notifications to the GATT/WTO |
| Author | McClough, David Andrew |
| Author email | mcclough@usc.edu; dmcclou@bgsu.edu |
| Degree | Doctor of Philosophy |
| Document type | Dissertation |
| Degree program | Political Economy & Public Policy |
| School | College of Letters, Arts and Sciences |
| Date defended/completed | 2008-08-07 |
| Date submitted | 2008 |
| Restricted until | Unrestricted |
| Date published | 2008-10-18 |
| Advisor (committee chair) | Katada, Saori N. |
| Advisor (committee member) |
Nugent, Jeffrey B. Cartier, Carolyn |
| Abstract | The proliferation of Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs) notified to the GATT/WTO since the early 1980s deviates from the long-term trend and reflects participation of nearly every member of the United Nations. This dissertation seeks to explain the current wave of RTA notifications by supplementing the economic model of supply and demand with diffusion theory. Application of the supply and demand model is useful in distinguishing between changes in demand and changes insupply of RTAs. This distinction is seldom emphasized in the current literature examining RTAs. Recent applications of diffusion theory in the discipline of international relations offer a unique opportunity to include a dynamic force in the static analysis of the supply and demand model. Empirical analysis assesses the fit of the RTA diffusion pattern by comparing the RTA diffusion pattern to a cumulative standard normal distribution. The analysis indicates that the diffusion pattern of RTAs resembles the diffusion of an innovation through a social system.; The implication of this finding is that the adoption of an RTA as trade policy is not made independently of the decision by other states. Indeed, the analysis suggests interdependency between states. Further empirical analysis explores economic and political variables that may explain the decision to adopt the RTA as trade policy. The empirical analysis is unique in that survival analysis is utilized to assess the variation in duration to adopt an initial RTA since the early 1980s. A central discovery is that regional designation explains the variation in duration to adopt an initial RTA. Multiple regression analysis confirms the results generated using survival analysis and support the assertion that the proliferation of RTAs likely reflects changes in both the demand for RTAs and the supply of RTAs. This dissertation concludes by considering implications for the WTO resulting from the increase in RTA notifications. |
| Keyword | trade agreements |
| Coverage date | after 1980 |
| Language | English |
| Part of collection | University of Southern California dissertations and theses |
| Publisher (of the original version) | University of Southern California |
| Place of publication (of the original version) | Los Angeles, California |
| Publisher (of the digital version) | University of Southern California. Libraries |
| Provenance | Electronically uploaded by the author |
| Type | texts |
| Legacy record ID | usctheses-m1675 |
| Contributing entity | University of Southern California |
| Rights | McClough, David Andrew |
| Repository name | Libraries, University of Southern California |
| Repository address | Los Angeles, California |
| Repository email | cisadmin@lib.usc.edu |
| Filename | etd-McClough-2338 |
| Archival file | uscthesesreloadpub_Volume32/etd-McClough-2338.pdf |
Description
| Title | Page 95 |
| Contributing entity | University of Southern California |
| Repository email | cisadmin@lib.usc.edu |
| Full text | 86 CHAPTER 4 EXAMINATION OF EXPLANATIONS FOR THE INCREASE IN RTAS This chapter examines possible explanations for the increase in the number of RTAs notified to the GATT/WTO. The proposed hypotheses examined in this chapter are reflective of or inspired by the literature reviewed in the previous chapter and historical facts. Scholars hypothesize that the easing of the US commitment to multilateralism is a central factor in the proliferation of RTAs. This hypothesis is examined empirically only to find that US participation in RTAs does indeed increase but that the increase is not statistically different from the overall increase in RTA notifications. This finding challenges the centrality of the US policy reversal as the driving force for the increase in RTAs. If the US policy reversal is not likely the source of proliferation, perhaps the political disintegrations of the Soviet Union, Yugoslavia, and Czechoslovakia, which correspond so closely with the timing of the increased popularity of RTAs, are the culprits. Geopolitical objectives inspired RTA formation in Europe and justified expansion and deepening since WWII. Indeed, European intentions to create a customs union inspired significant theoretical contributions to the economics literature. The timing of the political collapses of the Soviet Union and Yugoslavia and the political divorce of the Czech and Slovak Republics correspond very well with the increase in RTA activity. In this chapter, we examine the hypotheses that consider the European proclivity toward RTAs as a source of the proliferation and the impact of the political disintegration of the Soviet |
