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83
information is applied to revise probability assessments of an occurrence. For
example, if four horses are scheduled to run the race, each horse, all else equal, has a
one in four chance to win, however, if one horse experiences an injury while
training, Bayesian updating revises downward the likelihood of the injured horse
winning the race.
The political science literature employs emphasizes the role of epistemic
communities in disseminating knowledge as the mechanism for diffusion. The
concept of epistemic communities accommodates theories of a political market in
which power asymmetries persist in the presence of incomplete information.
Lobbying reflects the effort of epistemic communities to inform and influence
political outcomes.
Sociologists reject the hyper-rationality imposed by economists and subscribe
to the notion that irrationality exists and that decision-making is constrained by the
physical limits of the human brain. Implicit in this treatment is application of
heuristics that serve as shortcuts to decisions. Heuristics are not constrained by
perfect rationality but rather are likely created by some combination of rationality
and emotion. Resulting decisions, accordingly, may not be optimal as they would be
under conditions of perfect rationality, however, decisions may be good enough.
Accordingly, decisions satisfy rather than optimize.
It is useful to consider how the diffusion of the RTA trade policy is propelled
by the learning mechanism as economic and political actors update their
understanding of the trade environment by observing the accrual of benefits derived
Object Description
| Title | Riding the wave: an interdisciplinary approach to understanding the popularity of RTA notifications to the GATT/WTO |
| Author | McClough, David Andrew |
| Author email | mcclough@usc.edu; dmcclou@bgsu.edu |
| Degree | Doctor of Philosophy |
| Document type | Dissertation |
| Degree program | Political Economy & Public Policy |
| School | College of Letters, Arts and Sciences |
| Date defended/completed | 2008-08-07 |
| Date submitted | 2008 |
| Restricted until | Unrestricted |
| Date published | 2008-10-18 |
| Advisor (committee chair) | Katada, Saori N. |
| Advisor (committee member) |
Nugent, Jeffrey B. Cartier, Carolyn |
| Abstract | The proliferation of Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs) notified to the GATT/WTO since the early 1980s deviates from the long-term trend and reflects participation of nearly every member of the United Nations. This dissertation seeks to explain the current wave of RTA notifications by supplementing the economic model of supply and demand with diffusion theory. Application of the supply and demand model is useful in distinguishing between changes in demand and changes insupply of RTAs. This distinction is seldom emphasized in the current literature examining RTAs. Recent applications of diffusion theory in the discipline of international relations offer a unique opportunity to include a dynamic force in the static analysis of the supply and demand model. Empirical analysis assesses the fit of the RTA diffusion pattern by comparing the RTA diffusion pattern to a cumulative standard normal distribution. The analysis indicates that the diffusion pattern of RTAs resembles the diffusion of an innovation through a social system.; The implication of this finding is that the adoption of an RTA as trade policy is not made independently of the decision by other states. Indeed, the analysis suggests interdependency between states. Further empirical analysis explores economic and political variables that may explain the decision to adopt the RTA as trade policy. The empirical analysis is unique in that survival analysis is utilized to assess the variation in duration to adopt an initial RTA since the early 1980s. A central discovery is that regional designation explains the variation in duration to adopt an initial RTA. Multiple regression analysis confirms the results generated using survival analysis and support the assertion that the proliferation of RTAs likely reflects changes in both the demand for RTAs and the supply of RTAs. This dissertation concludes by considering implications for the WTO resulting from the increase in RTA notifications. |
| Keyword | trade agreements |
| Coverage date | after 1980 |
| Language | English |
| Part of collection | University of Southern California dissertations and theses |
| Publisher (of the original version) | University of Southern California |
| Place of publication (of the original version) | Los Angeles, California |
| Publisher (of the digital version) | University of Southern California. Libraries |
| Provenance | Electronically uploaded by the author |
| Type | texts |
| Legacy record ID | usctheses-m1675 |
| Contributing entity | University of Southern California |
| Rights | McClough, David Andrew |
| Repository name | Libraries, University of Southern California |
| Repository address | Los Angeles, California |
| Repository email | cisadmin@lib.usc.edu |
| Filename | etd-McClough-2338 |
| Archival file | uscthesesreloadpub_Volume32/etd-McClough-2338.pdf |
Description
| Title | Page 92 |
| Contributing entity | University of Southern California |
| Repository email | cisadmin@lib.usc.edu |
| Full text | 83 information is applied to revise probability assessments of an occurrence. For example, if four horses are scheduled to run the race, each horse, all else equal, has a one in four chance to win, however, if one horse experiences an injury while training, Bayesian updating revises downward the likelihood of the injured horse winning the race. The political science literature employs emphasizes the role of epistemic communities in disseminating knowledge as the mechanism for diffusion. The concept of epistemic communities accommodates theories of a political market in which power asymmetries persist in the presence of incomplete information. Lobbying reflects the effort of epistemic communities to inform and influence political outcomes. Sociologists reject the hyper-rationality imposed by economists and subscribe to the notion that irrationality exists and that decision-making is constrained by the physical limits of the human brain. Implicit in this treatment is application of heuristics that serve as shortcuts to decisions. Heuristics are not constrained by perfect rationality but rather are likely created by some combination of rationality and emotion. Resulting decisions, accordingly, may not be optimal as they would be under conditions of perfect rationality, however, decisions may be good enough. Accordingly, decisions satisfy rather than optimize. It is useful to consider how the diffusion of the RTA trade policy is propelled by the learning mechanism as economic and political actors update their understanding of the trade environment by observing the accrual of benefits derived |
