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67
Baldwin (1997) challenges the argument that the increase in RTAs results
from reversal of US trade policy, in particular the willingness of the US to pursue
bilateralism in parallel with multilateralism. He explores the historical context from
which the CUSFTA emerged and demonstrates that US interest in a bilateral
agreement with Canada persisted for nearly one hundred years but was rejected
regularly by Canadian governments seeking to avoid formalization of trade relations
with the United States.
Documenting the policy reversal by Canada rather than by the US provides a
useful contribution to the literature, however, Baldwin (1997) fails to pursue the
matter. Even if we accept the popular explanation that Canada feared the rise of
protectionism in the US, why does the Canadian government choose to accept a
formal trade agreement with the US at this particular time in history?
To explain the proliferation of RTAs, Richard Baldwin (1995, 1997) submits
a domino theory that relies upon a series of idiosyncratic events to explain the
apparent willingness of states to negotiate market access through RTAs but not more
generally through negotiations under the auspices of the GATT/WTO,
multilateralism. He posits that two idiosyncratic events spark RTA formation. In
Europe, he identifies the Single Market Act (SMA) signed in 1986, and in the
Americas, he selects the initiation of negotiations to establish a US-Mexico FTA as
the catalytic events of the perceived domino effect. Utilizing the gravity model and
trade data for the period 1960-1992 of Western European states, Andre Sapir (1997)
Object Description
| Title | Riding the wave: an interdisciplinary approach to understanding the popularity of RTA notifications to the GATT/WTO |
| Author | McClough, David Andrew |
| Author email | mcclough@usc.edu; dmcclou@bgsu.edu |
| Degree | Doctor of Philosophy |
| Document type | Dissertation |
| Degree program | Political Economy & Public Policy |
| School | College of Letters, Arts and Sciences |
| Date defended/completed | 2008-08-07 |
| Date submitted | 2008 |
| Restricted until | Unrestricted |
| Date published | 2008-10-18 |
| Advisor (committee chair) | Katada, Saori N. |
| Advisor (committee member) |
Nugent, Jeffrey B. Cartier, Carolyn |
| Abstract | The proliferation of Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs) notified to the GATT/WTO since the early 1980s deviates from the long-term trend and reflects participation of nearly every member of the United Nations. This dissertation seeks to explain the current wave of RTA notifications by supplementing the economic model of supply and demand with diffusion theory. Application of the supply and demand model is useful in distinguishing between changes in demand and changes insupply of RTAs. This distinction is seldom emphasized in the current literature examining RTAs. Recent applications of diffusion theory in the discipline of international relations offer a unique opportunity to include a dynamic force in the static analysis of the supply and demand model. Empirical analysis assesses the fit of the RTA diffusion pattern by comparing the RTA diffusion pattern to a cumulative standard normal distribution. The analysis indicates that the diffusion pattern of RTAs resembles the diffusion of an innovation through a social system.; The implication of this finding is that the adoption of an RTA as trade policy is not made independently of the decision by other states. Indeed, the analysis suggests interdependency between states. Further empirical analysis explores economic and political variables that may explain the decision to adopt the RTA as trade policy. The empirical analysis is unique in that survival analysis is utilized to assess the variation in duration to adopt an initial RTA since the early 1980s. A central discovery is that regional designation explains the variation in duration to adopt an initial RTA. Multiple regression analysis confirms the results generated using survival analysis and support the assertion that the proliferation of RTAs likely reflects changes in both the demand for RTAs and the supply of RTAs. This dissertation concludes by considering implications for the WTO resulting from the increase in RTA notifications. |
| Keyword | trade agreements |
| Coverage date | after 1980 |
| Language | English |
| Part of collection | University of Southern California dissertations and theses |
| Publisher (of the original version) | University of Southern California |
| Place of publication (of the original version) | Los Angeles, California |
| Publisher (of the digital version) | University of Southern California. Libraries |
| Provenance | Electronically uploaded by the author |
| Type | texts |
| Legacy record ID | usctheses-m1675 |
| Contributing entity | University of Southern California |
| Rights | McClough, David Andrew |
| Repository name | Libraries, University of Southern California |
| Repository address | Los Angeles, California |
| Repository email | cisadmin@lib.usc.edu |
| Filename | etd-McClough-2338 |
| Archival file | uscthesesreloadpub_Volume32/etd-McClough-2338.pdf |
Description
| Title | Page 76 |
| Contributing entity | University of Southern California |
| Repository email | cisadmin@lib.usc.edu |
| Full text | 67 Baldwin (1997) challenges the argument that the increase in RTAs results from reversal of US trade policy, in particular the willingness of the US to pursue bilateralism in parallel with multilateralism. He explores the historical context from which the CUSFTA emerged and demonstrates that US interest in a bilateral agreement with Canada persisted for nearly one hundred years but was rejected regularly by Canadian governments seeking to avoid formalization of trade relations with the United States. Documenting the policy reversal by Canada rather than by the US provides a useful contribution to the literature, however, Baldwin (1997) fails to pursue the matter. Even if we accept the popular explanation that Canada feared the rise of protectionism in the US, why does the Canadian government choose to accept a formal trade agreement with the US at this particular time in history? To explain the proliferation of RTAs, Richard Baldwin (1995, 1997) submits a domino theory that relies upon a series of idiosyncratic events to explain the apparent willingness of states to negotiate market access through RTAs but not more generally through negotiations under the auspices of the GATT/WTO, multilateralism. He posits that two idiosyncratic events spark RTA formation. In Europe, he identifies the Single Market Act (SMA) signed in 1986, and in the Americas, he selects the initiation of negotiations to establish a US-Mexico FTA as the catalytic events of the perceived domino effect. Utilizing the gravity model and trade data for the period 1960-1992 of Western European states, Andre Sapir (1997) |
