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61
trade liberalization. Finally, consider that consensus voting rules of the WTO grant
veto power to each member. As such, a more reasonable assertion is that RTAs can
be seen to supplement the GATT/WTO as RTAs offer states opportunity to pursue
the mission of the WTO without the institutionalized constraints of the WTO.
Richard E. Baldwin (2006) refers to the eventual mutilateralizing of regionalism. He
posits that bilateral agreements will lead to global free trade as political economy
forces demand that order be imposed on the international trade system inundated
with RTAs.
Explanations for the Increase in Regional Schemes
An expansive literature explores the popularity of RTAs. It is important to
acknowledge that RTAs are political agreements addressing economic issues so the
motivation to participate in RTAs may extend beyond economic welfare
considerations to include domestic and international politics (World Bank 2000). As
such, research explores not only the efficiency implications but also how RTAs serve
the unique objectives of developed and developing states. Scholars distinguish
between the “old regionalism” of the 1950s and 1960s and the “new regionalism” of
the 1980s and 1990s (Ethier 1998). Political events such as the collapse of the
Soviet Union, decolonization, and reconsideration of the import substitution growth
strategy inspire suggestions that the new regionalism reflects efforts by former
communist and third world countries to “lock-in” or to commit to liberalizing
economic reforms (Ethier 1998, Salas and Zabludovsky 2004). Ethier (1998)
Object Description
| Title | Riding the wave: an interdisciplinary approach to understanding the popularity of RTA notifications to the GATT/WTO |
| Author | McClough, David Andrew |
| Author email | mcclough@usc.edu; dmcclou@bgsu.edu |
| Degree | Doctor of Philosophy |
| Document type | Dissertation |
| Degree program | Political Economy & Public Policy |
| School | College of Letters, Arts and Sciences |
| Date defended/completed | 2008-08-07 |
| Date submitted | 2008 |
| Restricted until | Unrestricted |
| Date published | 2008-10-18 |
| Advisor (committee chair) | Katada, Saori N. |
| Advisor (committee member) |
Nugent, Jeffrey B. Cartier, Carolyn |
| Abstract | The proliferation of Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs) notified to the GATT/WTO since the early 1980s deviates from the long-term trend and reflects participation of nearly every member of the United Nations. This dissertation seeks to explain the current wave of RTA notifications by supplementing the economic model of supply and demand with diffusion theory. Application of the supply and demand model is useful in distinguishing between changes in demand and changes insupply of RTAs. This distinction is seldom emphasized in the current literature examining RTAs. Recent applications of diffusion theory in the discipline of international relations offer a unique opportunity to include a dynamic force in the static analysis of the supply and demand model. Empirical analysis assesses the fit of the RTA diffusion pattern by comparing the RTA diffusion pattern to a cumulative standard normal distribution. The analysis indicates that the diffusion pattern of RTAs resembles the diffusion of an innovation through a social system.; The implication of this finding is that the adoption of an RTA as trade policy is not made independently of the decision by other states. Indeed, the analysis suggests interdependency between states. Further empirical analysis explores economic and political variables that may explain the decision to adopt the RTA as trade policy. The empirical analysis is unique in that survival analysis is utilized to assess the variation in duration to adopt an initial RTA since the early 1980s. A central discovery is that regional designation explains the variation in duration to adopt an initial RTA. Multiple regression analysis confirms the results generated using survival analysis and support the assertion that the proliferation of RTAs likely reflects changes in both the demand for RTAs and the supply of RTAs. This dissertation concludes by considering implications for the WTO resulting from the increase in RTA notifications. |
| Keyword | trade agreements |
| Coverage date | after 1980 |
| Language | English |
| Part of collection | University of Southern California dissertations and theses |
| Publisher (of the original version) | University of Southern California |
| Place of publication (of the original version) | Los Angeles, California |
| Publisher (of the digital version) | University of Southern California. Libraries |
| Provenance | Electronically uploaded by the author |
| Type | texts |
| Legacy record ID | usctheses-m1675 |
| Contributing entity | University of Southern California |
| Rights | McClough, David Andrew |
| Repository name | Libraries, University of Southern California |
| Repository address | Los Angeles, California |
| Repository email | cisadmin@lib.usc.edu |
| Filename | etd-McClough-2338 |
| Archival file | uscthesesreloadpub_Volume32/etd-McClough-2338.pdf |
Description
| Title | Page 70 |
| Contributing entity | University of Southern California |
| Repository email | cisadmin@lib.usc.edu |
| Full text | 61 trade liberalization. Finally, consider that consensus voting rules of the WTO grant veto power to each member. As such, a more reasonable assertion is that RTAs can be seen to supplement the GATT/WTO as RTAs offer states opportunity to pursue the mission of the WTO without the institutionalized constraints of the WTO. Richard E. Baldwin (2006) refers to the eventual mutilateralizing of regionalism. He posits that bilateral agreements will lead to global free trade as political economy forces demand that order be imposed on the international trade system inundated with RTAs. Explanations for the Increase in Regional Schemes An expansive literature explores the popularity of RTAs. It is important to acknowledge that RTAs are political agreements addressing economic issues so the motivation to participate in RTAs may extend beyond economic welfare considerations to include domestic and international politics (World Bank 2000). As such, research explores not only the efficiency implications but also how RTAs serve the unique objectives of developed and developing states. Scholars distinguish between the “old regionalism” of the 1950s and 1960s and the “new regionalism” of the 1980s and 1990s (Ethier 1998). Political events such as the collapse of the Soviet Union, decolonization, and reconsideration of the import substitution growth strategy inspire suggestions that the new regionalism reflects efforts by former communist and third world countries to “lock-in” or to commit to liberalizing economic reforms (Ethier 1998, Salas and Zabludovsky 2004). Ethier (1998) |
