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51
exploitation of the potential terms of trade externality and loss of market access. To
what extent the collapse of the Soviet Union, the disintegration of Yugoslavia, and
the split of Czechoslovakia impact the proliferation of RTAs, generally, and the
variation in the timing to adopt the innovation, specifically, is considered empirically
in Chapters 4-6.
Regional Trade Agreements and the Impact on Trade
RTAs emerged and flourished during the past quarter century. Economists
initially examined how customs unions featuring an internal free trade area and a
common external tariff, affected efficiency. Of interest to early theorists was
whether customs unions facilitated trade creation as trade increased between
members or promoted trade diversion as members altered trade patterns by shifting
trade from more efficient non-members to less efficient members (Viner 1950,
Meade 1955, Lipsey 1957).
Empirical studies attempting to quantify the welfare implications of RTAs
find that the welfare gains arising from trade creation generally exceed the welfare
losses emanating from trade diversion (Robinson and Thierfelder 1999, Frankel and
Wei 1998, Soloaga and Winters 2001). Sucharita Ghosh and Steven Yamarik (2004)
find that trade creation increases with the degree of integration of RTAs, which
suggests that there is a practical economic justification to increase the integration
among trade partners. Won W. Koo, P. Lynn Kennedy, and Anatoliy Skripnitchenko
(2006) employ a gravity model to assess the impact of preferential trade agreements
Object Description
| Title | Riding the wave: an interdisciplinary approach to understanding the popularity of RTA notifications to the GATT/WTO |
| Author | McClough, David Andrew |
| Author email | mcclough@usc.edu; dmcclou@bgsu.edu |
| Degree | Doctor of Philosophy |
| Document type | Dissertation |
| Degree program | Political Economy & Public Policy |
| School | College of Letters, Arts and Sciences |
| Date defended/completed | 2008-08-07 |
| Date submitted | 2008 |
| Restricted until | Unrestricted |
| Date published | 2008-10-18 |
| Advisor (committee chair) | Katada, Saori N. |
| Advisor (committee member) |
Nugent, Jeffrey B. Cartier, Carolyn |
| Abstract | The proliferation of Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs) notified to the GATT/WTO since the early 1980s deviates from the long-term trend and reflects participation of nearly every member of the United Nations. This dissertation seeks to explain the current wave of RTA notifications by supplementing the economic model of supply and demand with diffusion theory. Application of the supply and demand model is useful in distinguishing between changes in demand and changes insupply of RTAs. This distinction is seldom emphasized in the current literature examining RTAs. Recent applications of diffusion theory in the discipline of international relations offer a unique opportunity to include a dynamic force in the static analysis of the supply and demand model. Empirical analysis assesses the fit of the RTA diffusion pattern by comparing the RTA diffusion pattern to a cumulative standard normal distribution. The analysis indicates that the diffusion pattern of RTAs resembles the diffusion of an innovation through a social system.; The implication of this finding is that the adoption of an RTA as trade policy is not made independently of the decision by other states. Indeed, the analysis suggests interdependency between states. Further empirical analysis explores economic and political variables that may explain the decision to adopt the RTA as trade policy. The empirical analysis is unique in that survival analysis is utilized to assess the variation in duration to adopt an initial RTA since the early 1980s. A central discovery is that regional designation explains the variation in duration to adopt an initial RTA. Multiple regression analysis confirms the results generated using survival analysis and support the assertion that the proliferation of RTAs likely reflects changes in both the demand for RTAs and the supply of RTAs. This dissertation concludes by considering implications for the WTO resulting from the increase in RTA notifications. |
| Keyword | trade agreements |
| Coverage date | after 1980 |
| Language | English |
| Part of collection | University of Southern California dissertations and theses |
| Publisher (of the original version) | University of Southern California |
| Place of publication (of the original version) | Los Angeles, California |
| Publisher (of the digital version) | University of Southern California. Libraries |
| Provenance | Electronically uploaded by the author |
| Type | texts |
| Legacy record ID | usctheses-m1675 |
| Contributing entity | University of Southern California |
| Rights | McClough, David Andrew |
| Repository name | Libraries, University of Southern California |
| Repository address | Los Angeles, California |
| Repository email | cisadmin@lib.usc.edu |
| Filename | etd-McClough-2338 |
| Archival file | uscthesesreloadpub_Volume32/etd-McClough-2338.pdf |
Description
| Title | Page 60 |
| Contributing entity | University of Southern California |
| Repository email | cisadmin@lib.usc.edu |
| Full text | 51 exploitation of the potential terms of trade externality and loss of market access. To what extent the collapse of the Soviet Union, the disintegration of Yugoslavia, and the split of Czechoslovakia impact the proliferation of RTAs, generally, and the variation in the timing to adopt the innovation, specifically, is considered empirically in Chapters 4-6. Regional Trade Agreements and the Impact on Trade RTAs emerged and flourished during the past quarter century. Economists initially examined how customs unions featuring an internal free trade area and a common external tariff, affected efficiency. Of interest to early theorists was whether customs unions facilitated trade creation as trade increased between members or promoted trade diversion as members altered trade patterns by shifting trade from more efficient non-members to less efficient members (Viner 1950, Meade 1955, Lipsey 1957). Empirical studies attempting to quantify the welfare implications of RTAs find that the welfare gains arising from trade creation generally exceed the welfare losses emanating from trade diversion (Robinson and Thierfelder 1999, Frankel and Wei 1998, Soloaga and Winters 2001). Sucharita Ghosh and Steven Yamarik (2004) find that trade creation increases with the degree of integration of RTAs, which suggests that there is a practical economic justification to increase the integration among trade partners. Won W. Koo, P. Lynn Kennedy, and Anatoliy Skripnitchenko (2006) employ a gravity model to assess the impact of preferential trade agreements |
