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35
the GATT/WTO. Similarly, the relaxation of key provisions of Article XXIV
intended to increase the attractiveness of integration agreements for developing
countries has had limited impact as a mere 5.9% of RTA notifications are covered by
the Enabling Clause. The Enabling Clause may be more influential than the data
suggest. The relaxation of the key provisions of Article XXIV under the Enabling
Clause may have unintended consequence that, in effect, change the requirements for
all preferential regional schemes, including those covered under Article XXIV
(Chisik 2007). Table 7 shows the frequency counts for each source of WTO
coverage prior to and since 1992.
Table 7: Frequency by Organizing Provision Prior to and Since 1992
Prior to Since
Article XXIV 77 220 297
Enabling Clause 10 12 22
GATS Article V 2 55 57
Total 89 287 376
The Pearson Chi-square (19.521, 2) is statistically significant (p = .000)
indicating that the number of RTAs by each type of coverage notified to the
GATT/WTO since 1992 is likely independent of the number of RTAs notified prior
to 1992. The disparity of the cell sizes interferes with calculation of lambda and
other measures of association. Accordingly, this finding does not preclude the
possibility that the fundamental change materializing in the early 1992 may be
related to the establishing of the Enabling Clause and GATS Article V. This
investigation is enhanced by visual examination of the data.
Object Description
| Title | Riding the wave: an interdisciplinary approach to understanding the popularity of RTA notifications to the GATT/WTO |
| Author | McClough, David Andrew |
| Author email | mcclough@usc.edu; dmcclou@bgsu.edu |
| Degree | Doctor of Philosophy |
| Document type | Dissertation |
| Degree program | Political Economy & Public Policy |
| School | College of Letters, Arts and Sciences |
| Date defended/completed | 2008-08-07 |
| Date submitted | 2008 |
| Restricted until | Unrestricted |
| Date published | 2008-10-18 |
| Advisor (committee chair) | Katada, Saori N. |
| Advisor (committee member) |
Nugent, Jeffrey B. Cartier, Carolyn |
| Abstract | The proliferation of Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs) notified to the GATT/WTO since the early 1980s deviates from the long-term trend and reflects participation of nearly every member of the United Nations. This dissertation seeks to explain the current wave of RTA notifications by supplementing the economic model of supply and demand with diffusion theory. Application of the supply and demand model is useful in distinguishing between changes in demand and changes insupply of RTAs. This distinction is seldom emphasized in the current literature examining RTAs. Recent applications of diffusion theory in the discipline of international relations offer a unique opportunity to include a dynamic force in the static analysis of the supply and demand model. Empirical analysis assesses the fit of the RTA diffusion pattern by comparing the RTA diffusion pattern to a cumulative standard normal distribution. The analysis indicates that the diffusion pattern of RTAs resembles the diffusion of an innovation through a social system.; The implication of this finding is that the adoption of an RTA as trade policy is not made independently of the decision by other states. Indeed, the analysis suggests interdependency between states. Further empirical analysis explores economic and political variables that may explain the decision to adopt the RTA as trade policy. The empirical analysis is unique in that survival analysis is utilized to assess the variation in duration to adopt an initial RTA since the early 1980s. A central discovery is that regional designation explains the variation in duration to adopt an initial RTA. Multiple regression analysis confirms the results generated using survival analysis and support the assertion that the proliferation of RTAs likely reflects changes in both the demand for RTAs and the supply of RTAs. This dissertation concludes by considering implications for the WTO resulting from the increase in RTA notifications. |
| Keyword | trade agreements |
| Coverage date | after 1980 |
| Language | English |
| Part of collection | University of Southern California dissertations and theses |
| Publisher (of the original version) | University of Southern California |
| Place of publication (of the original version) | Los Angeles, California |
| Publisher (of the digital version) | University of Southern California. Libraries |
| Provenance | Electronically uploaded by the author |
| Type | texts |
| Legacy record ID | usctheses-m1675 |
| Contributing entity | University of Southern California |
| Rights | McClough, David Andrew |
| Repository name | Libraries, University of Southern California |
| Repository address | Los Angeles, California |
| Repository email | cisadmin@lib.usc.edu |
| Filename | etd-McClough-2338 |
| Archival file | uscthesesreloadpub_Volume32/etd-McClough-2338.pdf |
Description
| Title | Page 44 |
| Contributing entity | University of Southern California |
| Repository email | cisadmin@lib.usc.edu |
| Full text | 35 the GATT/WTO. Similarly, the relaxation of key provisions of Article XXIV intended to increase the attractiveness of integration agreements for developing countries has had limited impact as a mere 5.9% of RTA notifications are covered by the Enabling Clause. The Enabling Clause may be more influential than the data suggest. The relaxation of the key provisions of Article XXIV under the Enabling Clause may have unintended consequence that, in effect, change the requirements for all preferential regional schemes, including those covered under Article XXIV (Chisik 2007). Table 7 shows the frequency counts for each source of WTO coverage prior to and since 1992. Table 7: Frequency by Organizing Provision Prior to and Since 1992 Prior to Since Article XXIV 77 220 297 Enabling Clause 10 12 22 GATS Article V 2 55 57 Total 89 287 376 The Pearson Chi-square (19.521, 2) is statistically significant (p = .000) indicating that the number of RTAs by each type of coverage notified to the GATT/WTO since 1992 is likely independent of the number of RTAs notified prior to 1992. The disparity of the cell sizes interferes with calculation of lambda and other measures of association. Accordingly, this finding does not preclude the possibility that the fundamental change materializing in the early 1992 may be related to the establishing of the Enabling Clause and GATS Article V. This investigation is enhanced by visual examination of the data. |
