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24
Convention prior to termination of the conventions.11 Even the cloistered
Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (North Korea) is listed as a participant party
to the Global System of Trade Preferences among Developing Countries (GSTP).12
Only Mongolia, oil rich Sao Tomé and Principe, and East Timor remain immune to
the charms of this infectious international political economy phenomenon.
Having established the breadth of participation in RTAs, this study must
establish that the recent increase in RTA notifications to the GATT/WTO is a unique
political economy phenomenon by demonstrating the growth in popularity of RTAs
deviates from the established trend since the creation of the GATT.
Description of Proliferation
The proliferation of RTAs is easily observed. Figure 1 shows a gradual
increase in the number of RTAs through the 1980s and into the 1990s. In the early
1990s, a change in the rate of increase appears and continues through to the present.
11 The Lomé Conventions afforded preferential non-reciprocal market access to former colonies of
European states.
12 The Agreement on the Global System of Trade Preferences Among Developing Countries (GSTP)
is a framework for the exchange of trade preferences among developing countries. Member states are
known as the Group of 77. Most members, but not all, participate in additional RTAs.
Object Description
| Title | Riding the wave: an interdisciplinary approach to understanding the popularity of RTA notifications to the GATT/WTO |
| Author | McClough, David Andrew |
| Author email | mcclough@usc.edu; dmcclou@bgsu.edu |
| Degree | Doctor of Philosophy |
| Document type | Dissertation |
| Degree program | Political Economy & Public Policy |
| School | College of Letters, Arts and Sciences |
| Date defended/completed | 2008-08-07 |
| Date submitted | 2008 |
| Restricted until | Unrestricted |
| Date published | 2008-10-18 |
| Advisor (committee chair) | Katada, Saori N. |
| Advisor (committee member) |
Nugent, Jeffrey B. Cartier, Carolyn |
| Abstract | The proliferation of Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs) notified to the GATT/WTO since the early 1980s deviates from the long-term trend and reflects participation of nearly every member of the United Nations. This dissertation seeks to explain the current wave of RTA notifications by supplementing the economic model of supply and demand with diffusion theory. Application of the supply and demand model is useful in distinguishing between changes in demand and changes insupply of RTAs. This distinction is seldom emphasized in the current literature examining RTAs. Recent applications of diffusion theory in the discipline of international relations offer a unique opportunity to include a dynamic force in the static analysis of the supply and demand model. Empirical analysis assesses the fit of the RTA diffusion pattern by comparing the RTA diffusion pattern to a cumulative standard normal distribution. The analysis indicates that the diffusion pattern of RTAs resembles the diffusion of an innovation through a social system.; The implication of this finding is that the adoption of an RTA as trade policy is not made independently of the decision by other states. Indeed, the analysis suggests interdependency between states. Further empirical analysis explores economic and political variables that may explain the decision to adopt the RTA as trade policy. The empirical analysis is unique in that survival analysis is utilized to assess the variation in duration to adopt an initial RTA since the early 1980s. A central discovery is that regional designation explains the variation in duration to adopt an initial RTA. Multiple regression analysis confirms the results generated using survival analysis and support the assertion that the proliferation of RTAs likely reflects changes in both the demand for RTAs and the supply of RTAs. This dissertation concludes by considering implications for the WTO resulting from the increase in RTA notifications. |
| Keyword | trade agreements |
| Coverage date | after 1980 |
| Language | English |
| Part of collection | University of Southern California dissertations and theses |
| Publisher (of the original version) | University of Southern California |
| Place of publication (of the original version) | Los Angeles, California |
| Publisher (of the digital version) | University of Southern California. Libraries |
| Provenance | Electronically uploaded by the author |
| Type | texts |
| Legacy record ID | usctheses-m1675 |
| Contributing entity | University of Southern California |
| Rights | McClough, David Andrew |
| Repository name | Libraries, University of Southern California |
| Repository address | Los Angeles, California |
| Repository email | cisadmin@lib.usc.edu |
| Filename | etd-McClough-2338 |
| Archival file | uscthesesreloadpub_Volume32/etd-McClough-2338.pdf |
Description
| Title | Page 33 |
| Contributing entity | University of Southern California |
| Repository email | cisadmin@lib.usc.edu |
| Full text | 24 Convention prior to termination of the conventions.11 Even the cloistered Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (North Korea) is listed as a participant party to the Global System of Trade Preferences among Developing Countries (GSTP).12 Only Mongolia, oil rich Sao Tomé and Principe, and East Timor remain immune to the charms of this infectious international political economy phenomenon. Having established the breadth of participation in RTAs, this study must establish that the recent increase in RTA notifications to the GATT/WTO is a unique political economy phenomenon by demonstrating the growth in popularity of RTAs deviates from the established trend since the creation of the GATT. Description of Proliferation The proliferation of RTAs is easily observed. Figure 1 shows a gradual increase in the number of RTAs through the 1980s and into the 1990s. In the early 1990s, a change in the rate of increase appears and continues through to the present. 11 The Lomé Conventions afforded preferential non-reciprocal market access to former colonies of European states. 12 The Agreement on the Global System of Trade Preferences Among Developing Countries (GSTP) is a framework for the exchange of trade preferences among developing countries. Member states are known as the Group of 77. Most members, but not all, participate in additional RTAs. |
