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23
Breadth of Participation8
This research project is motivated, in large part, by the breadth of
participation in RTAs by members of the GATT/WTO. As of December 31, 2006,
96.875% (all but six of the 192 members) of the United Nations (UN) membership
are identified as participants in at least one RTA notification to the GATT/WTO.9
Moreover, only seven states have not formed or joined an RTA since January 1,
1981. Although seven is a small number of states in absolute terms, seven countries,
nonetheless, understates the breadth of participation since 1981.10 The recently
independent state, Montenegro, for example, participated in RTAs as part of Serbia
and Montenegro prior to declaring independence in June 2006 but had yet to notify
the WTO of participation in an RTA independently of Serbia by December 31, 2006,
the end date of this study. European microstates, Monaco and San Marino, maintain
open borders with the European Union (EU) and The Holy See, Vatican City,
maintains open borders with Italy and, by extension, with the EU. Although not
participating in a bilateral agreement, East Timor was an ACP signatory of the Lomé
8 RTA notifications to the GATT/WTO frequently occur years after the actual RTA enters into force,
if at all. There is no assurance that all RTAs for preceding years are notified to the GATT/WTO. The
absence of a few RTAs is unlikely to affect the statistical findings given the strength of findings and
size of the sample.
9 Although an independent state, Vatican City chose not to join the UN. Although an independent
country by most criteria, Taiwan is not a member of the UN due to a lack of international recognition
mainly to appease China.
10 The South Pacific Regional Trade and Economic Agreement entered into force January 1, 1981.
Australia and New Zealand granted preferential non-reciprocal market access to the eight island
nations of the South Pacific Forum. Australia and New Zealand would formalize an FTA January 1,
1983; however, all but one of the countries comprising the South Pacific Forum has yet to notify the
GATT/WTO of participation in an RTA since. The most likely explanation is the geographic
isolation of these states and involvement in the South Pacific Regional Trade and Economic
Agreement.
Object Description
| Title | Riding the wave: an interdisciplinary approach to understanding the popularity of RTA notifications to the GATT/WTO |
| Author | McClough, David Andrew |
| Author email | mcclough@usc.edu; dmcclou@bgsu.edu |
| Degree | Doctor of Philosophy |
| Document type | Dissertation |
| Degree program | Political Economy & Public Policy |
| School | College of Letters, Arts and Sciences |
| Date defended/completed | 2008-08-07 |
| Date submitted | 2008 |
| Restricted until | Unrestricted |
| Date published | 2008-10-18 |
| Advisor (committee chair) | Katada, Saori N. |
| Advisor (committee member) |
Nugent, Jeffrey B. Cartier, Carolyn |
| Abstract | The proliferation of Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs) notified to the GATT/WTO since the early 1980s deviates from the long-term trend and reflects participation of nearly every member of the United Nations. This dissertation seeks to explain the current wave of RTA notifications by supplementing the economic model of supply and demand with diffusion theory. Application of the supply and demand model is useful in distinguishing between changes in demand and changes insupply of RTAs. This distinction is seldom emphasized in the current literature examining RTAs. Recent applications of diffusion theory in the discipline of international relations offer a unique opportunity to include a dynamic force in the static analysis of the supply and demand model. Empirical analysis assesses the fit of the RTA diffusion pattern by comparing the RTA diffusion pattern to a cumulative standard normal distribution. The analysis indicates that the diffusion pattern of RTAs resembles the diffusion of an innovation through a social system.; The implication of this finding is that the adoption of an RTA as trade policy is not made independently of the decision by other states. Indeed, the analysis suggests interdependency between states. Further empirical analysis explores economic and political variables that may explain the decision to adopt the RTA as trade policy. The empirical analysis is unique in that survival analysis is utilized to assess the variation in duration to adopt an initial RTA since the early 1980s. A central discovery is that regional designation explains the variation in duration to adopt an initial RTA. Multiple regression analysis confirms the results generated using survival analysis and support the assertion that the proliferation of RTAs likely reflects changes in both the demand for RTAs and the supply of RTAs. This dissertation concludes by considering implications for the WTO resulting from the increase in RTA notifications. |
| Keyword | trade agreements |
| Coverage date | after 1980 |
| Language | English |
| Part of collection | University of Southern California dissertations and theses |
| Publisher (of the original version) | University of Southern California |
| Place of publication (of the original version) | Los Angeles, California |
| Publisher (of the digital version) | University of Southern California. Libraries |
| Provenance | Electronically uploaded by the author |
| Type | texts |
| Legacy record ID | usctheses-m1675 |
| Contributing entity | University of Southern California |
| Rights | McClough, David Andrew |
| Repository name | Libraries, University of Southern California |
| Repository address | Los Angeles, California |
| Repository email | cisadmin@lib.usc.edu |
| Filename | etd-McClough-2338 |
| Archival file | uscthesesreloadpub_Volume32/etd-McClough-2338.pdf |
Description
| Title | Page 32 |
| Contributing entity | University of Southern California |
| Repository email | cisadmin@lib.usc.edu |
| Full text | 23 Breadth of Participation8 This research project is motivated, in large part, by the breadth of participation in RTAs by members of the GATT/WTO. As of December 31, 2006, 96.875% (all but six of the 192 members) of the United Nations (UN) membership are identified as participants in at least one RTA notification to the GATT/WTO.9 Moreover, only seven states have not formed or joined an RTA since January 1, 1981. Although seven is a small number of states in absolute terms, seven countries, nonetheless, understates the breadth of participation since 1981.10 The recently independent state, Montenegro, for example, participated in RTAs as part of Serbia and Montenegro prior to declaring independence in June 2006 but had yet to notify the WTO of participation in an RTA independently of Serbia by December 31, 2006, the end date of this study. European microstates, Monaco and San Marino, maintain open borders with the European Union (EU) and The Holy See, Vatican City, maintains open borders with Italy and, by extension, with the EU. Although not participating in a bilateral agreement, East Timor was an ACP signatory of the Lomé 8 RTA notifications to the GATT/WTO frequently occur years after the actual RTA enters into force, if at all. There is no assurance that all RTAs for preceding years are notified to the GATT/WTO. The absence of a few RTAs is unlikely to affect the statistical findings given the strength of findings and size of the sample. 9 Although an independent state, Vatican City chose not to join the UN. Although an independent country by most criteria, Taiwan is not a member of the UN due to a lack of international recognition mainly to appease China. 10 The South Pacific Regional Trade and Economic Agreement entered into force January 1, 1981. Australia and New Zealand granted preferential non-reciprocal market access to the eight island nations of the South Pacific Forum. Australia and New Zealand would formalize an FTA January 1, 1983; however, all but one of the countries comprising the South Pacific Forum has yet to notify the GATT/WTO of participation in an RTA since. The most likely explanation is the geographic isolation of these states and involvement in the South Pacific Regional Trade and Economic Agreement. |
