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18
refusal by the European Community to initiate a multilateral round of trade
negotiations following the accession of Greece to the EC, which inspired the US
policy announcement to pursue parallel bilateral and multilateral trade policy
strategies. The variation in time to adopt the RTA as a trade policy innovation is
analyzed and found to be most heavily influenced by geography.
The findings are evaluated in the context of diffusion theory as currently
applied in international relations and as presented in economics. Theoretical
arguments inspired by developments in the international relations literature are
presented to support the position that the source of the diffusion of RTAs is learning.
As discussed in Chapter 3, missing from the international relations literature is
recognition of the role of supply in the proliferation of RTAs. In the end, the
application of diffusion theory is most helpful when both demand and supply are
considered in the adoption of RTAs as a trade policy.
Object Description
| Title | Riding the wave: an interdisciplinary approach to understanding the popularity of RTA notifications to the GATT/WTO |
| Author | McClough, David Andrew |
| Author email | mcclough@usc.edu; dmcclou@bgsu.edu |
| Degree | Doctor of Philosophy |
| Document type | Dissertation |
| Degree program | Political Economy & Public Policy |
| School | College of Letters, Arts and Sciences |
| Date defended/completed | 2008-08-07 |
| Date submitted | 2008 |
| Restricted until | Unrestricted |
| Date published | 2008-10-18 |
| Advisor (committee chair) | Katada, Saori N. |
| Advisor (committee member) |
Nugent, Jeffrey B. Cartier, Carolyn |
| Abstract | The proliferation of Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs) notified to the GATT/WTO since the early 1980s deviates from the long-term trend and reflects participation of nearly every member of the United Nations. This dissertation seeks to explain the current wave of RTA notifications by supplementing the economic model of supply and demand with diffusion theory. Application of the supply and demand model is useful in distinguishing between changes in demand and changes insupply of RTAs. This distinction is seldom emphasized in the current literature examining RTAs. Recent applications of diffusion theory in the discipline of international relations offer a unique opportunity to include a dynamic force in the static analysis of the supply and demand model. Empirical analysis assesses the fit of the RTA diffusion pattern by comparing the RTA diffusion pattern to a cumulative standard normal distribution. The analysis indicates that the diffusion pattern of RTAs resembles the diffusion of an innovation through a social system.; The implication of this finding is that the adoption of an RTA as trade policy is not made independently of the decision by other states. Indeed, the analysis suggests interdependency between states. Further empirical analysis explores economic and political variables that may explain the decision to adopt the RTA as trade policy. The empirical analysis is unique in that survival analysis is utilized to assess the variation in duration to adopt an initial RTA since the early 1980s. A central discovery is that regional designation explains the variation in duration to adopt an initial RTA. Multiple regression analysis confirms the results generated using survival analysis and support the assertion that the proliferation of RTAs likely reflects changes in both the demand for RTAs and the supply of RTAs. This dissertation concludes by considering implications for the WTO resulting from the increase in RTA notifications. |
| Keyword | trade agreements |
| Coverage date | after 1980 |
| Language | English |
| Part of collection | University of Southern California dissertations and theses |
| Publisher (of the original version) | University of Southern California |
| Place of publication (of the original version) | Los Angeles, California |
| Publisher (of the digital version) | University of Southern California. Libraries |
| Provenance | Electronically uploaded by the author |
| Type | texts |
| Legacy record ID | usctheses-m1675 |
| Contributing entity | University of Southern California |
| Rights | McClough, David Andrew |
| Repository name | Libraries, University of Southern California |
| Repository address | Los Angeles, California |
| Repository email | cisadmin@lib.usc.edu |
| Filename | etd-McClough-2338 |
| Archival file | uscthesesreloadpub_Volume32/etd-McClough-2338.pdf |
Description
| Title | Page 27 |
| Contributing entity | University of Southern California |
| Repository email | cisadmin@lib.usc.edu |
| Full text | 18 refusal by the European Community to initiate a multilateral round of trade negotiations following the accession of Greece to the EC, which inspired the US policy announcement to pursue parallel bilateral and multilateral trade policy strategies. The variation in time to adopt the RTA as a trade policy innovation is analyzed and found to be most heavily influenced by geography. The findings are evaluated in the context of diffusion theory as currently applied in international relations and as presented in economics. Theoretical arguments inspired by developments in the international relations literature are presented to support the position that the source of the diffusion of RTAs is learning. As discussed in Chapter 3, missing from the international relations literature is recognition of the role of supply in the proliferation of RTAs. In the end, the application of diffusion theory is most helpful when both demand and supply are considered in the adoption of RTAs as a trade policy. |
